textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1110 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Another weak front will move through Friday, followed by a stronger front this weekend. Cooler and much drier conditions are expected heading into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Main forecast concern in the short term is temperatures. Otherwise there really isn't much to discuss with no rain in the forecast and generally benign weather. Currently we have zonal flow aloft with the jet draped from the eastern Pacific off the Baja coast, the core running through the Southern Plains into the TN Valley before turning north into the eastern Great Lake region. There is a s/w over the four corners. At the surface the weakly defined front is still over our coastal waters. Broad area of low pressure is over the larger Great Lakes with the associated cold front stretching south just on the west side of the Appalachians before dipping southwest across AL and south of the MS coast and into the western Gulf.

Over the next few days we will see that s/w move east and getting absorbed by the broader L/W trough that slowly take shape over the eastern CONUS. This s/w will move through the Lower MS Valley and into the southeastern CONUS early Friday. This will send a reinforcing front through the area possibly as early as overnight tonight with it finally moving completely into the Gulf Friday morning. This front will mainly be a wind shift with a surge of drier air while much cooler air finally moves in late Friday and Friday evening. Temperatures will be much the same today and Friday but over the weekend we will see a decent cool down. Given how most of the moisture has been pushed off to the south and east no rain is expected with this disturbance early Friday.

Once that cooler air starts to pile in we will finally have that Fall feel again. LL temps will drop possibly 5-6 degrees at h925 while dewpoints will drop into 40s possibly upper 30s in a few areas. High pressure will build in the from the north and should set the area up for a decent night of radiational cooling Saturday night. Lows will likely fall into the 40s to lower 50s for much of the area...there is even a very slim chance that there could be a few locations touching the upper 30s. Those locations would likely be in our drainage areas. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The extended portion of the forecast overall is rather quiet and although writing this before we have all of the latest model data in...there were some significant differences in the medium range guidance. However, it appears the latest GFS is coming more in line with the previous ECMWF with the cut off low they each develop over northern Mexico/western TX/NM. The ensemble means were not a lot of help either as the previous runs were basically in the middle of both older operational solutions however each ensemble mean was in more agreement with its operational run. With that there was no deviation from the latest NBM run.

Models are struggling and typically do in early season transition along with the amount of energy coming across the Pacific. The next feature to watch is already coming onshore out of the Pacific. This system is expected to dig hard over the weekend closing off and eventually cutting off over the Mexico/US border Sunday. Cut off lows are notoriously difficult to time when they will lift out and the models have been struggling with that. Even with the GFS now much more in line with the 12z ECMWF there are still some timing/ track, and strengthen differences however, they both suggest a small chance of rain returning late Monday and through Tuesday as this system tries to kick out across TX and into the Lower MS Valley before being absorbed by the east coast L/W trough once again. /CAB/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Generally VFR conditions is forecast for all the terminals. GPT had a small brief period of dense fog but as the cold front moves further eastward, thinking that is transitory and already has cleared out for the most part. There may be some light patchy fog instead and at other terminals as well. Otherwise no major concerns, winds remain relatively light and no issues with ceilings. -BL

MARINE

Issued at 1110 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A weak cold front continues to slowly work its way through the coastal waters overnight and this morning. Winds are already turning around out of the northwest but will remain on the light side. Winds will become light and variable by this afternoon and remain that way until a reinforcing cold front moves through early Friday where winds will quickly become offshore again and a little stronger, around 10 to 15 knots. Offshore winds will continue through the weekend. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.