textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 350 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Dense fog will impact the local area this evening and tonight. An advisisory is in effect.

- Dry weather is expected until Wednesday, when a quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances.

- Severe weather possible Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A weak shortwave sliding across Texas Tuesday night will move through the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This feature will flatten the upper ridge aloft somewhat but that's not going to have an appreciable impact on temps. May see some scattered showers Wed with this system but thats about it. The bigger story comes this weekend.

Global models continue to advertise a setup that'd be just right for a local severe weather event. They show as well established southern stream trough crossing into West Texas Saturday morning. The base of that trough is looking like it will run right along the northern Gulf Coast with the center of the upper and surface lows going right across northern LA and central MS. That puts the CWA well into the warm sector Saturday evening and overnight. Winds throughout the column really ramp up as the deepening lows approach. Shear/helicity values more than sufficient to support severe to strong severe(wind/tornado) but limited by instability. Will be important to see how guidance evolves this week but probably an event to really keep a close eye on since it'd be an overnight one and on a very busy weekend in terms of Mardi Gras activities.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

All terminals have finally gotten to MVFR. CU field spreading east across LA and MS has been holding on to those sub-3kft ceilings. Those will dissipate this afternoon. Bigger impact though comes again tonight with widespread dense fog developing. Some terminals may start seeing reduced visibilities not long after 00z with most by around 06z. From then until at least 15z, IFR to VLIFR is expected and may hang around much longer than that at terminals near coastal areas.

MEFFER

MARINE

Issued at 350 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Main impact will be dense fog tonight. Dewpoints are already sitting right at to just above the water temps. Onshore flow will likely be in place all week with high pressure centered generally east of the region. The threat of fog development will be relatively high the next couple days again this upcoming weekend. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect early this evening through around noon Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Saturday into Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks from west to east across the Gulf Coast states.

MEFFER

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557.