textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Torrential rainfall possible with any stronger storms through this weekend. Rainfall rates of 2-5" per hour are possible and could easily overwhelm drainage systems.

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible today with the greatest threat being strong gusty winds.

- High rain chances through the next several days. Areal 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The southern periphery of an MCS that has been moving across LA and now into central MS is steadily decaying. Therefore, have been trimming back the SVR Watch and likely won't have the remaining portion out for too much longer. Convective shield will spread across the areas of the CWA that haven't seen any so far today while slowly decreasing in intensity.

The later part of today from evening into overnight appears to be more focused on the southern half of the CWA. IR imagery already showing substantial convective development along the SE TX and SW LA coastlines. HRRR looks to be initiating quite well. SPC meso analysis page shows a strong instability gradient right along the LA coast from TX to AL. So makes sense that CAMs show convection staying right on that boundary of sorts as mean flow carries storms east. Again, models suggest storms struggling as they track much farther north and east of New Orleans metro. That leads to less of flash flooding concern north of there.

For Sunday, a continued challenge for CAMs to produce any semblance of unified solutions. Not surprising with quite complex mesoscale dynamics in play. But from the synoptic scale, broad scale trough thats been situated along the Rocky Mountains will finally be shifting east. Not looking like it will be all of the trough though. The base of it will get snipped off and lag behind is mid latitude counterpart. That slowing combined with corfidi vectors conducive for back building storms will maintain Flash Flood risk Sunday. And probably again on Monday as the upper low barely drifts east from east Texas to northern LA. So may have to extend the Flash Flood Watch into Monday.

MEFFER

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

An unsettled and moisture airmass will persist through much of the extended forecast period as ridge to the north is pushed farther north and way from the CWA by next upper level trough coming into the western US. What that does locally is maintain weak troughing aloft. Hard to say if the upper low nearly overhead is still dynamically intact. Regardless, ample moisture will still be in place while areal subsidence is essentially non-existant. As seen recently, shortwave impulses will continue to enhance shower and thunderstorm development. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through at least the middle of next week. Precipitable water values generally between 1.8 and 2.2 inches will continue to support efficient warm rain processes and locally heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that develop. Rainfall coverage may fluctuate somewhat day to day depending on subtle mesoscale boundaries, convective overturning from prior day activity, and those shortwaves passing through the base of the broad scale trough.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Outside of convection, mostly MVFR to VFR conditions should dominated the period. Impacts to visibility mainly comes from periods of heavy rainfall, though may have some light fog tomorrow morning. Should be a break in convection during the overnight period but at most terminals, with new convective development late morning to early afternoon Sunday. Caveat is confidence is lower than normal on any convective timing at

MEFFER

MARINE

Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A large area of high pressure will remain anchored over the western Atlantic and expanded across the Gulf throughout the forecast period. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow with winds right around 10 knots. Periods of near 15 knots are possible, especially in open Gulf waters but probably not enough to justify Exercise Caution headline. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day with the potential for short term gale to storm force gusts with stronger cells.

MEFFER

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.