textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast early this morning, with the highest chances in coastal areas. A few storms could become strong, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

- Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat to start the week. During the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Just after midnight here we have seen a few very small showers develop north of I10 and west of I55. Mesoscale models are still indicating shower and storm activity developing around or just before sunrise this morning as a cold front continues to move through the region. In terms of consistency, CAMs have really been focused right along the I10 corridor and points south with the best rain chances this morning. As quickly as CAMs develop this line of storms along the boundary, it moves it southward over the coastal waters by around noon leading to locations along the immediate coast with the higher POPs this morning and best QPF signal.

Behind the front, expect temperatures to remain hot with the northerly flow suggesting little in the way of land/sea interaction. However, "feels like" temperatures will be much lower behind the boundary as surface humidity values fall. Still uncomfortable, but not as dangerous to be outside as the last several days...so naturally not expecting any heat headlines throughout the short term as the dry air sticks around into the start of the new workweek. The overall pattern is somewhat interesting with a late (early?) season ULL and east coast trough sitting over the eastern US. Given the location we are far enough that the lower heights will not help limit daytime heat as well as being on the dry side of the ULL any afternoon shower/storms will be quite limited with the best chances along sea/lake breezes. The overall rain chances on average are NOT zero, but very close through Wednesday. Locations that get a shower will likely be few and far between. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The weak front moving through the area Sunday should become increasingly diffuse near the northern Gulf early in the week. A somewhat drier post-frontal airmass will linger through Tuesday and likely remain at least partially intact Wednesday. Aloft, the trough broadening across the Southeast through this weekend is forecast to lift north and become absorbed by an approaching broad northern- stream trough. This will leave weak mid-level flow and little focused large-scale ascent across the central Gulf Coast. Wednesday currently appears to be the driest day of the long-term period. Moisture recovery will be underway as low-level flow gradually turns back onshore, but the column may remain drier than normal and and inhibited to limit convection to scattered coverage. Any storms that develop should be tied primarily to the sea breeze or lingering outflow boundaries during the afternoon hours. POPs around 10 to 30 percent appear reasonable, with much of the forecast area potentially remaining dry.

Deeper Gulf moisture should gradually spread inland Friday through Saturday as southerly to southeasterly low-level flow becomes better established. Forecast PW increases from 1.5" range to near 2". However, still doesn't appear that there will be a well-defined synoptic trigger. Initiation should therefore remains heavily dependent on the inland-moving sea breeze moisture convergence and subsequent boundary collisions. Isolated to scattered convection is expected Thursday and Friday, followed by somewhat greater scattered coverage Saturday as moisture becomes better established.

Weak flow through much of the column will favor slow-moving, pulse- type storms rather than organized convection. The usual summertime hazards of frequent lightning, brief gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall will accompany the stronger storms. Temperatures should run near to slightly above early-August normals, particularly across inland portions of the CWA. Afternoon highs will generally reach the lower to mid 90s. Increasing moisture will push afternoon heat indices upward later in the week, but the current forecast keeps most locations below the 108 degree Heat Advisory threshold. A few locations could approach that level before convection develops, particularly Thursday or Friday. (ME)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Convection has started to develop and grow slightly in coverage this morning. This trend is forecast to continue as a frontal boundary moves southward through the region. By 02/12z terminals north of I-12 such as HDC and MCB have been cleared of convection. Over the next few hours we will clear additional terminals such as ASD, GPT, and eventually NEW and MSY. HUM may hang onto convection a bit longer today, but look to be cleared around noon or so. Outside of convection winds will shift a bit to a more northerly direction, but VFR conditions should win out through the cycle after the frontal passage. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Moderate west to southwest winds will continue through the rest of tonight ahead of an approaching weak front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions affecting much of the coastal waters. Winds and seas should begin subsiding Sunday afternoon as the boundary reaches the coastal waters and the surface pressure gradient weakens. Showers and thunderstorms will remain capable of producing locally higher winds and waves, frequent lightning, and sharply reduced visibility through Sunday. The front should stall and gradually wash out near the northern Gulf Sunday night into early next week. A weak surface ridge then becomes established over the eastern Gulf. This will support southwesterly flow through Tuesday night. Wednesday onward, the Bermuda ridge takes over and winds transition to a more south to southeast direction for the remainder of the forecast period. Seas should predominantly settle into the 1 to 3 foot range as wind speeds in the period don't appear to be appreciably strong. Daily thunderstorm coverage over the waters will initially be limited by the drier airmass, then gradually increase Thursday through Saturday as deeper moisture returns. (ME)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532- 534>536-541-543-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ551-553- 554-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ534>536-541-543-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ553-554- 570-572-575-577.