textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Warm with higher shower and thunderstorm chances today into Sunday. There is the potential for severe weather as well as locally heavy rainfall mainly starting around noon into tonight ahead of a cold frontal passage Sunday.

- Winds will remain elevated for marine areas today. Northerly winds behind a cold front on Sunday will likely necessitate Small Craft Advisories, which could continue through early next week.

- A prolonged period of easterly winds next week could increase the coastal flood threat on east facing shorelines by mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

All areas should get at least some rainfall today and tonight. Ranges will also be quite strong in isolated locations and could range from a half inch to 6+" in a short distance. One of these locations looks to be, within an area or around and area, between BTR and Hammond northward to the state line. This is also where the slight risk of excessive rainfall is located for today. This looks warranted and will not downplay this risk level. The next thing would be severe wx possibilities. The numbers are not high for getting severe storms but they do fall within criteria, so again there is the potential for a strong/severe storm to exist mainly through the daylight hours today into the evening. The main issues with any severe storms will be hail and damaging winds. SPC has a marginal risk in play at the moment and this looks warranted as well.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday night) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The frontal boundary will continue to move downstream. The globals are in a bit better alignment, at least with the 12z ECM and 18z GFS showing roughly the same location of the front and associated QPF signal. This is a slight nudge to agreement with a bit drier solution for Monday vs the previous runs on the GFS/GEFS. Putting more faith in the drier solution for Monday does also help with temperatures forecasts as before the GFS trended a bit cooler due to clouds and rain. With this nearing agreement we can also assume a bit warmer across the region with temperatures Monday afternoon in the upper 60s or lower 70s expected.

The front should remain locked into the H5 flow over the central Gulf through mid to late week. Within the nearly zonal mid/upper flow, there is a shortwave that develops and moves eastward over the Gulf allowing for shower and storm development in closer proximity to the front. That said, a developing wave over northern Mexico late Wednesday and into Thursday will help the surface feature lift northward again toward our region as a warm front, which may kick off a few showers over our southern tier as the long term period comes to an end late next week. Overall, rainfall chances are to be rather limited. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

IFR to MVFR cigs will lift to VFR cigs by mid to late morning. Cigs will be in all day for most areas but should remain VFR through evening. Cigs will fall to IFR by late evening and remain through sunrise Sunday. Vis should remain at VFR levels unless TSRA moves over. There will be times at each terminal that sh/ts move through today and tonight causing tempo cigs/vis to fall into IFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will remain over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching cold front today and Sunday. Behind the front, north to northeast winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots for most waters, and Small Craft Advisories will likely be necessary. Hazardous marine conditions could continue for much of the new week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.