textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect tonight/Wednesday morning portions of SELA and coastal MS plus some marine areas. The potential for dense fog will continue the next several nights/mornings.

- A quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances Wednesday.

- Severe weather possible Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The primary impact in the next 12 hours continues to be potential for dense fog. Coverage last night was quite extensive and dense but am not as confident for the entire CWA. Did, however, issued a preemptive Dense Fog Advisory for locations where confidence is greatest which is areas around large bodies of water.

Outside of fog, only other notable weather headlines falls under temps and low rain chances Wednesday. A weak shortwave sliding across Texas tonight will slide through the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This feature will flatten the upper ridge aloft somewhat, but should not have an appreciable impact on temperatures. Guidance continues to suggest scattered showers at times on Wednesday with this system, but forcing/moisture remain modest and rainfall amounts look light. Regardless, still look at lows in the 50s and highs in the mid 70s to 80 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The main weather impact this forecast period comes this weekend. Global models continue to advertise a pattern that would be favorable for a local cool-season severe weather event. Models depict a pretty unique evolution from today to Friday. There are 2 closed upper lows in the eastern PAC, one west of Oregon and the other farther south west of California. Over the next 12-18 hours, the southern one drifts east while the northern one drops south. Between midnight and sunrise Wed, these features will be side by side. The 24-36 after that is when the fascinating transition takes place. Models show them beginning a Fujiwara interaction and ultimately phase into a single system, coming into the southwestern US as a southern stream trough Friday afternoon. What's interesting is to the north is zonal flow, which means the that upper low's eastern progression is mostly carried out via momentum transfer. That definitely does bring a little potential questioning of if models have a great grasp on that feature's eastward speed and thus timing of when it'd reach the CWA.

As this upper low reaches northeast Texas Saturday evening, the base of the trough and attendant midlevel speed max will be spreading inland across southern Louisiana. Surface cyclogenesis/deepening is forecast with the surface low tracking across northern Louisiana into central MS. If this track verifies, much of the forecast area would be in the warm sector by Saturday evening and remain so overnight.

Kinematic fields are impressive, though not uncommon for cool- season severe wx event. A strengthening low-level jet and strong deep-layer flow overspreading the warm sector as the system approaches is generally what models depict. Current guidance supports 50+ kt flow near 850 mb and 60+ kt deep-layer shear, with ample helicity. Looking at the vertical wind profile, into completely unidirectional but moreso about 90 degrees of separation between the surface and 700mb+. All of this would be more than sufficient to support organized convection, with a version of squall line or QLCS with bowing segments.

Instability continues to be what looks like will be the primary limiting. Even with surface dewpoints forecast to rise into the low to mid 60s; the nocturnal timing and convective evolution may keep surface-based instability modest. Thats what global models show and meteorologically makes sense. That said, this is the type of high- shear/low-CAPE environment that can still support damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes with forced accent from that upper low being so close to the CWA. The best window of opportunity really hasn't changed much in the last couple days...from around midnight through shortly after sunrise Sunday before convection shifts east into Alabama.

Given the potential for an overnight event on a very busy weekend in terms of Mardi Gras activities, really need to keep a close eye on this one.

Due to the fact this system takes such a low latitude track, we really won't see much of a drop in temperatures behind it. Sure it'll be drier but still looking at highs in the 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 543 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

All terminals VFR at forecast issuance time. Mostly BKN-OVC cirrus this afternoon, but there have been some flat stratocumulus clouds under them.

Main forecast question for the terminals is whether we get fog to develop. Guidance appears to be backing off on the threat of dense fog, probably because of the amount of high clouds over the area and upstream. Still expect low ceilings/visibilities beyond 06z, mainly between 10z-14z, MVFR with TEMPO LIFR, but have backed away from explicitly forecasting conditions at or below airfield minima (VLIFR). Should see improvement to VFR by mid to late morning.

MARINE

Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Main impact will be dense fog again tonight although not as confident as last night. Dewpoints are already sitting right at to just above the water temps. Onshore flow will likely be in place all week with high pressure centered generally east of the region. The threat of fog development will be relatively high the next couple days again this upcoming weekend. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect early this evening through noon Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are looking more probable Saturday into Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks from west to east across the Gulf Coast states.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ057>060-064-068>070-076>084-086>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-552-555-557.