textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle and late part of the week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas.

- Nightly fog development is expected through at least Thursday night.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Weak ridging over the Southern Plains this morning with a shortwave over Nevada. At the surface, high pressure extended from New England to Georgia, with a stationary front along Interstate 40. Fog dissipated around 10 AM in most areas, with the last shreds near/over Lake Pontchartrain. Temperatures jumped quickly from the upper 50s under the fog to the lower and middle 70s once an area had an hour or two of sunshine. Dew points were in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Main forecast issue in the short term will be the potential development of fog during the overnight hours tonight. This morning's fog appeared to be more of a radiation fog, where tonight looks to be more of an advection or hybrid fog type. Onshore flow is becoming more established, but water temperatures are also warming up. Away from the Mississippi River waters (mid 50s), most water temperatures are in the mid 60s. Dew points aren't forecast to reach the mid 60s until Tuesday night. Will carry mention of fog in the grids for tonight, but will not do a pre-emptive advisory at this time.

Much above normal temperatures to continue, with highs away from marine influences probably getting into the lower 80s and lows upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Upper ridging will shift east of the Florida Peninsula, with southwesterly upper flow becoming established across the area for the end of the week through the weekend. Advection fog will be a concern, especially late in the week, as dew points in the mid and upper 60s move over waters with temperatures in the mid 60s. Persistent southerly flow will keep the moist airmass across the area, and we are likely to see a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Any organized precipitation will be well to the north and west of the area through the weekend. Much above normal temperatures will continue with daily departures from normal in excess of 10 degrees through the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

All forecast terminals were either VFR or will be shortly. Main question is fog development overnight, or whether it becomes low stratus. Do expect at least IFR conditions at most or all terminals around 09z, with potential for LIFR for several hours around sunrise Tuesday. Similar to this morning, expect improvement to MVFR by 16z and VFR by 18z.

MARINE

Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Onshore flow continues through next weekend. There may be periods where winds approach 15 knots, but advisory level conditions aren't expected. Rather, the main concern will be fog development, as mid 60s dewpoints get advected over water that's pretty much the same temperature. The exception to this would be near the mouth of the Mississippi River, where water temperatures are in the mid 50s.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.