textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Moderate to High confidence in showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, with localized flooding and a few strong to severe storms possible.

- Finally start to dry out Tuesday as ridging builds into the area. Expect temperatures to increase again by mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Main upper low remains over eastern Canada. There is a shortwave this morning over Oklahoma and east Texas. An upper ridge was over the Intermountain West northeastward into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Another upper trough was off the Pacific Coast.

At the surface, a frontal boundary extended from Nashville to near Alexandria to San Antonio. Most thunderstorm activity at midnight was over Texas, but there were scattered showers and thunderstorms between Jackson and Hattiesburg moving southeast. Temperatures locally at midnight were in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Our airmass locally remains fairly moist and unstable, with precipitable water values near 1.5 inches, which is around the 75th percentile. That, however, is considerably lower than the nearly 2 inch precipitable water values we had Friday night/Saturday when the heaviest rain occurred.

We do have one more round of showers and thunderstorms to contend with as the shortwave over Oklahoma and Texas, along with the frontal boundary, still has to transit the area this afternoon and tonight. Most of the convection allowing models don't show much development of thunderstorms until around midday, as a fairly extensive cirrus deck may slow heating a bit. Convective temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The main concerns with any strong thunderstorms will be potential for damaging winds, although marginally severe hail can't entirely be ruled out. While we don't anticipate the type of rainfall amounts we saw Friday and Saturday, as saturated as the ground is in most of the area, it won't take nearly as much rain to cause issues. Current estimates are for around an inch of rainfall with locally higher amounts. Since much of the area has had some time to drain since Saturday's heavy rain, we should be able to handle forecast rain amounts. Rain should end during the evening, if not sooner.

Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry with mostly sunny skies. Highs should get well into the 80s, and may even touch 90 on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Little change in thinking from the previous forecast packages as a strong deep layer ridge axis dominates the region through Saturday night. Ample subsidence in the mid and upper levels will both warm temperatures and lower humidity aloft. The end result will be a very strong mid-level capping inversion around 700mb that will effectively limit cloud development to 10k feet or less through the end of the week. These fair weather cumulus clouds will form each afternoon during peak daytime heating hours. In the low levels, an onshore flow will be in place, and this will allow dewpoints to gradually increase through the week. As a result, despite the very dry air in place aloft, conditions will turn increasingly warm and muggy as we move through the long term period. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s each afternoon and max heat index values will peak near 90 degrees. Given the early time period for this heat, there is a minor to moderate heat risk for portions of the area on Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will provide some relief as clear skies allow for decent radiational cooling each night. Overnight lows will provide some respite as they dip into the low to mid 60s over inland areas the upper 60s along the coast each night through the weekend. Light winds and saturated soils will also be conducive to patchy fog development each night, especially over more inland areas.

There are some minor model differences that arise as we move into Sunday and Sunday night. The GFS keeps the strong mid to upper level ridge axis in place over the area resulting in a continued dry and warm forecast. However, the ECMWF is now showing the ridge axis shifting slightly to the east. This weakens the mid-level inversion just enough to support some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday afternoon during peak heating hours. For now, the forecast continues persistence indicating a dry and warm pattern through the entire weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Another round of fog and low stratus will be the main forecast concern through the overnight and early morning hours of the forecast period. This next round of fog and low stratus will develop due to the combination of light winds, high relative humidity, and very saturated soils. The main concern that may detract from the fog potential is a deck of cirrus approaching from the west. The most likely terminals to be impacted by very low conditions would be KGPT and KASD, and that would be in the next few hours before higher clouds blanket the area. Will continue to monitor, and expect that amendments will be necessary overnight.

After 14z, increasing boundary layer mixing will allow any fog to clear and the low stratus deck to lift to between 1000 and 2000 feet. Further mixing by 18z will result in a scattered cumulus field at around 2500 to 3500 feet. Thunderstorm activity will also begin to fire up in advance of an approaching frontal boundary after 18z, and this is reflected by PROB30 or TEMPO wording at nearly all of the terminals after 18z. The convection will produce lightning, locally strong wind gusts, and reduced visibilities as it moves over a terminal. Most convection should dissipate during the 00z to 06z timeframe, but it might take until the daytime hours Tuesday before we lose most cloud cover.

MARINE

Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

South to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist overnight. Anticipating one more rounds of storms this afternoon and evening with some strong to severe storms possible across marine waters. Main threats will be wind gusts greater than 34 knots and waterspouts. A frontal boundary will move into the waters Monday night, bringing moderate offshore winds through Tuesday. Otherwise, marine conditions through the rest of the workweek appear to remain rather benign.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.