textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

- Patchy fog with some locally dense fog possible again tonight across portions of southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi. A dense fog advisory has been issued for areas east of I-55 and along/south of the I-10/I-12 corridor.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle to latter part of next week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Biggest short term concern is the potential for fog. While guidance is still a little varied on how dense the fog will be, generally there has been increasing probabilities, especially for areas closer to water and the coastal LA/MS. Due to this, issued a dense fog advisory for early tomorrow morning. Areas outside of the dense fog advisory could still see some patchy fog. Thinking the fog should dissipate relatively quickly after sunrise similar to yesterday.

Otherwise, no rain concerns through Monday and high temperatures continue to be well above normal (easily 7-10 degrees) for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A more zonal flow pattern will begin to set up around Tuesday with a few shortwaves passing through the area Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will be the next chance for the area to see showers and storms. Right now with PW being right around average and the better dynamics located northwest of us into the ArkLaTex region, thinking any potential for heavy rain will be very limited.

Global models are hinting at a strong deepening trough entering the CONUS Thursday into Friday. There's still some of uncertainty especially being at the tail end of the forecast period, but with this kind of pattern change, plenty of gulf moisture will be pumped inland. So it's a signal for a much more wet pattern for this coming weekend and next week. How much and how big of an impact it would be still remains to be seen, so keep an eye on future forecasts.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions should prevail for a little while longer before fog entering the area will cause bounces into MVFR/IFR or lower, especially for terminals closer to water and closer to the coast. Cannot completely rule out fog elsewhere but it should generally be more patchy and light. For the rest, fog, dense at times, is forecasted for the early morning hours. It should clear out by mid morning at the latest and return to VFR conditions then.

MARINE

Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Benign conditions will settle over the coastal waters for the rest of the weekend. Light northeasterly to easterly winds will prevail through Monday before shifting to a stronger onshore flow starting Tuesday where cautionary headlines may be needed. Low chances of rain return for the offshore waters around mid week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for LAZ039- 056>060-064>071-076>082-087>090.

GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for MSZ077- 083>088.

GM...None.