textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- High temperatures are expected to climb into the lower and mid 90s through Sunday with heat index values approaching 105 degrees. This is our first heat spell of the summer, so please use caution if outdoors for an extended period of time.

- A weak cold front will slowly move into the area during the first half of next week leading to higher shower and thunderstorm chances. This has correlated to a higher Flash Flood risk starting Monday with a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for Flash Flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Hot then wet will pretty much sum up this fcast. Heat index values will continue to reach around 105 each day through Sunday. The front that was stalled over Arkansas earlier Fri will get another kick southward today. This front will move back north then get another kick south. The front will slow to a crawl by late Monday as it moves into the northern tier of counties/parishes. Trying to find the front synoptically will be a mess come Monday. The only way to find it at the sfc is with thermal gradients. This also means that it could become almost all convectively driven. It can be found at 850mb though. Monday could see some heavy rainfall mainly over the northern half of the area while Tuesday should be the heaviest and largest coverage. Total rainfall amounts could be around 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts Monday through Wed. Normaly, these numbers will be spread out over that same time period, but this may be a case where they come in fast like a burst. Tuesday may be the strongest rainfall day where we see most of these numbers achieved with the highest potential of flooding.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Upper ridging will be over the Caribbean and along the Pacific Coast on Tuesday night. A deep trough over eastern Canada will dig across much of the southeastern US, producing zonal to northwest flow over the northern Gulf Coast at that time. Precipitable water values will be near the top of the chart Tuesday night, with most areas around 2.2 inches or a little higher. A shortwave will move across the local area Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, likely producing an additional period of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. Considering 500mb temperatures will be remaining in the -5 to -7C range, warm rain processes could continue to produce 2 to 3 inch per hour rainfalls. On top of what falls in the preceeding 48 hours, that could produce some hydrologic issues.

Once that shortwave departs Wednesday morning, shortwave ridging will begin making an attempt to return to the area. The airmass will begin to dry out with precipitable water values dropping to 1.9 inches Thursday, and falling further, to around 1.6 inches on Friday. That Friday figure is getting fairly close to the daily mean of 1.55 inches. That should bring a gradual decrease in areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms to around 50 percent for Thursday and 30 percent for Friday. This will also decrease the threat for heavy rainfall as we get into the second half of the week.

As the airmass gradually dries out late next week, we'll see the high temperatures gradually creep back up. Highs in the upper 80s on Wednesday should increase to around 90 Thursday and in the loewr 90s on Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s to around 80. receive storms on a particular day problably will only top out in the mid 80s, while dry areas get pretty close to 90. Overnight lows wil be in the 70s, and potentially near 80 in a few spots.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Some vis reduction to MVFR around sunrise today and again Sunday over a corridor from BTR to MCB, otherwise VFR should be the rule.

MARINE

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A broad area of high pressure will remain centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida through the weekend and into early next week, promoting a persistent south-southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots across the coastal waters through early next week. These winds will produce seas of 2 to 4 feet in the open Gulf waters and 1 to 2 feet in the sounds and tidal lakes. Afterwards into next week, a stalling front will increase rain chances and winds through at least the middle of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.