textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 659 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Some of the storms could become strong to severe and/or produce heavy rainfall at times, especially this afternoon through this evening across southwestern Mississippi and adjacent parishes of southeastern Louisiana.

- Regarding the threats this evening, the main concern will be across areas north of the I-10 corridor with the greatest threat across southwestern Mississippi. Any storms that become severe will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes of up to EF2 intensity. High rain rates could also result in isolated flash flooding and ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas.

- Residents should remain weather aware and pay attention to the forecast for updates and changes as specific timing and threat details regarding additional showers and storms through the weekend will continue to be refined.

UPDATE

Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Main concern over the next 3-6 hours will be in Tornado Watch 186 along the Mississippi-Louisiana line, where isolated severe supercells continue to move east-northeast.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A series of fast-moving upper disturbances will lead to active weather through the end of the work week. First disturbance will force a cold front toward the area through tonight. Ahead of the front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop, and we're already starting to see light showers across northern portions of the area. This activity will gradually intensify in response to favorable jet dynamics moving through the middle/lower Mississippi Valley.

Best forcing for severe looks to be just a bit north of the local area, more across central Mississippi where there is an enhanced risk of severe weather. However, it wouldn't take much in the way of a southward shift for that better forcing to include our southwestern Mississippi counties. That being said, the latest update to the severe weather outlook did expand the enhanced risk area to include northern portions of the southwestern Mississippi counties to account for a slight southward trend in some of the guidance. There will be plenty of shear in place and the main question is whether storms will be able to take full advantage of the low level shear as discrete cells or whether they will congeal into more of a cluster or quasi-linear mode. If the latter, individual storm inflow may be disrupted by other nearby storms, which would help limit the severe potential of most cells.

Will need to monitor trends closely as storms begin to develop and strengthen since there won't be a huge distance between the "launch pad" and where the severe weather threat materializes. Where exactly that delineation occurs is still up in the air, but southwestern Mississippi could be the launch pad, or it could have a fairly substantial severe threat this evening.

Regarding the heavy rain threat, similar to the severe threat, the greatest threat currently appears to be just north of the local area, but any shift to the south would put some of the heavier rain into portions of southwestern Mississippi. Once again with the moderate risk area basically ending at the forecast area border, will need to monitor trends closely as the flash flood threat could increase quickly with a southward shift.

Generally speaking, forecast totals are in the 0.5-1 inch range across SW MS and the Florida parishes, tapering to less than 0.1 inch across the south shore through tonight. However, any thunderstorms will be capable of producing higher rain rates and totals that could quickly lead to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas.

The front will stall near the coast by tomorrow morning, with continued scattered showers and storms in the morning. As daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere once again, expect showers to increase in coverage during the afternoon hours, with a few thunderstorms mixed in as well. Severe threat looks fairly limited tomorrow as the favorable jet dynamics move off to the northeast.

Expect similar or more active conditions on Friday with the front still stalled near the coast and another fast-moving upper disturbance racing through the middle Mississippi Valley to enhance convective coverage.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Biggest concern in the longer term forecast continues to be a rather vigorous disturbance moving out of northern Mexico northeastward across the local area late Saturday into Sunday followed by yet another disturbance crossing the area late Sunday into Monday. Timing and intensity of these disturbances remains a bit uncertain at this time, but they'll both result in continued active weather across the Gulf South. Am generally carrying high end chance to likely POPs both Saturday and Sunday as a result of these disturbances. Severe and heavy rain potential will somewhat come down to timing and whether the bulk of the showers/storms are able to take advantage of daytime instability. For now, stay tuned.

The late Sunday disturbance should push a surface front into the Gulf with high pressure building into the area in its wake. This would mark an end to the current active pattern for at least a couple days as the mid/upper high suppresses convection in the wake of the front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Ceilings IFR at KGPT, MVFR at KBTR and KHUM, VFR elsewhere at issuance time. Trend will be toward MVFR ceilings with occasional IFR conditions after about 09z. Main threats of TSRA in the near term will be at KMCB, and potentially at KBTR. Elsewhere, just scattered SHRA. Moisture levels are significant enough that widespread MVFR ceilings are anticipated during the daytime hours tomorrow. No synoptic scale forcing apparent for development of organized convection during the day on Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 124 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Southerly winds will continue for the coastal waters today, generally around 10 to 15 knots. A few spots could get above 15 knots so opted to put small craft exercise caution headlines for interior lakes and sounds. A few spots in the outer coastal waters could technically reach at or above 15 knots briefly but it only is for a rather short window. Winds will then become more light and variable as a weak front stalls at or near the coast Thursday. This front will dissipate around Friday and onshore winds will return. There will be daily chances of showers and storms starting Wednesday through the rest of the week. Any of the stronger storms could cause locally higher winds and waves/seas, along with potential for waterspouts.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.