textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

- 1st concern continues to be fog potential through Thursday. Fog some dense is expected for much of the area tomorrow and Thursday morning. Plan ahead for possible travel delays due to low visibility during the morning commute hours.

- Next concern is the risk of strong to severe storms mainly Friday night as the next potent storms system works across the central US and a cold front moves across the area. SPC currently has a 15% probability of severe weather across northwestern portions of the CWA.

- Last topic is highs the next few days. We will be quite warm with a few locations likely topping out around 80 and this could test some records with the best chance of breaking a few on Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 206 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Fog was quite temperamental last night, developing quickly in some areas and as soon as some low clouds streamed in the visibilities improved but would start to fall again as the low clouds moved away. This was mainly along the MS coast and portions of the Northshore. Other locations farther inland saw fog develop later but held onto the fog much longer this morning. Tonight could be as difficult to figure out fog however fog will likely develop again.

Ridge over the Gulf continues to hold with mostly zonal flow aloft. This will hold in place for the most part through Thursday even the closed low currently west of the Baja starts to lift out across the 4 corners Wednesday night and into the southern and central Plains Thursday. With the ridge in place LL temps will remain rather warm with h925 temps expected around 17-18C the next 2 days. This would suggest a mix down temperature into the lower 80s especially for inland areas. NBM on the other hand appears to be under playing the highs with only a small area of 80-81 mainly over the marsh areas along and west of Maurepas. We have already seen a few 80s today even MSY reaching 80 already and tomorrow will not be much different than today. With no real changes to the pattern there is little reason we should not get as warm tomorrow as we did today and with that the NBM75 was used as a base for tomorrow and still notched up a degree or two in isolated locations for highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of the area. Coastal MS is the cooler section given the onshore winds transporting slightly cooler marine air inland which should keep that area in the mid 70s.

Thursday one would think should be fairly similar but there are some slight changes. LL temps could be even a degree warmer but there are some hiccups that can be seen. Even though the ridge will still be in control we will move under southwest flow aloft. Mid lvl flow will greatly increase through the day and mid lvl hghts will slightly cool. Deeper moisture will also begin to increase with PW's climbing to just under 1.2". The increase in lift, slightly cooler mid lvl temps and slightly better moisture profile should lead to an increase in clouds and we may even see sprinkles and very light rain move in from the west during the day. This very well could hinder Max temps from realizing their full potential so highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s is possible but confidence is not quite as high as tomorrow. That said the records look a touch cooler on Thursday so we may actually have a better chance of breaking some records on Thursday.

As for the fog concerns. We have already issue a dense fog advisory for almost all of the area including the tidal lakes, sounds, and near shore waters. Fog will develop overnight but developing stratus could really cause things to bounce up and down much like coastal MS and the immediate Northshore did this morning. Also with LL winds along the coasts rather strong and out of the west and not southerly that could also hurt the fog production along the coast. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 206 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Main focus in the extended is the potential for strong to severe storms Friday/Friday night. The main culprit is in the Pacific right now still moving out of the Bering Sea and towards the Gulf of Alaska. This system is expected to begin to move onshore over the Pac NW overnight Wednesday night and continue to dive south- southeast west of the continental divide. By Thursday afternoon evening it should begin to slow down or stop digging as the mid lvl jet both upstream and downstream will be fairly equal in strength. By Friday morning as the system has finally stopped digging it should begin to lift across west TX and into the southern Plains. This will induce strong cyclogenesis along the lee of the Rockies. This sfc low will surge east through the day across the southern Plains and into the Ozarks by Friday evening. The disturbance that moves across the southern Plains Thursday mentioned in the short term will actually help in priming the area as it will lead to moisture surging north. Moisture will increase through the day with dewpoints possibly topping out in the upper 60s and PWs approaching 1.7 by 00z Saturday. If that occurs it will be a record PW but the main concern is that we will see instability hold steady or even increase during the evening hours. This is not typically the case as most of the time we need daytime heating to really ramp the instability up but with strong southerly winds, increasing lift through the night, and develop LL jet we could have more than enough to overcome any negatives from an instability standpoint. One event that pops to mind is the recent October 25/26 event. We didn't have a lot of severe weather reports but we did see 6 tornadoes. The pattern is not exactly the same but that event had a h5 trough with a positive tilt moving across the Rockies. The lead s/w with that event was much closer to the L/W trough about 6-12 hours ahead compared to this week where we will see a stronger s/w lift through the Plains and into the MS Valley Thursday 24 to 36 hours ahead of it. The upper lvl pattern is not as amplified as the Oct system but the jet is much stronger and we will be under the RRQ of it.

At this time we can not rule out anything but the potential is there for strong to severe storms impacting portions of the CWA mainly overnight Friday ahead of the cold front. All modes are possible at this time. Don't want to get too cute and provide real focused details but if i had to point an area with the greatest risk it would be most of the CWA along and north of the 10/12 corridor. However, the best instability will be closer to the coast especially after midnight. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible Friday given the rapid increase in moisture and rather strong mid lvl forcing but the main concern for severe storms will be overnight, especially as the LL jet starts to get going across the region.

Cold front moves through Saturday and we quickly dry out behind it. That said the forecast becomes quite nebulous heading into next week mainly depending on what the base of our Friday trough does. /CAB/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026 Conditions continue to look favorable for a period of IFR ceiling impacts to develop at all of the terminals with ceilings generally ranging from 300 to 500 feet between 08z and 15z. Only MSY, NEW, and HUM will see a lower probability of IFR condiitons, and the current forecast keeps MVFR ceilings of 1000 to 2000 feet in place over that 08z to 15z time period. Fog development will occur at times, but the fog will not be persistent or widespread tonight due to the prescence of slightly elevated boundary layer winds between 10 and 15 knots. The most likely terminals to be impacted by a longer duration fog event are MCB and BTR where overnight cooling and the development of a surface based temperature inversion will be most pronounced. Otherwise, fog impacts should generally range from 3 to 5 miles at the remainder of the terminals. Ceilings will gradually lift between 16z and 18z with a mix of MVFR and VFR condiitons in place after 18z at all of the terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 206 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Light southwesterly winds of around 10 knots or less and seas of 2 feet or less will be in place through Wednesday. Wednesday night and a surface low will begin to take shape and deepen over the OK and TX panhandles and move across the southern and central Plains during the day. At the same time high pressure dominating the Gulf will slide northeast and this will cause the winds to increase and become more southerly. Moderate onshore flow will continue through Friday night until a cold front moves through Saturday with a window of strong offshore winds. There will likely need to be some headlines behind the cold front with either an SCY or SCS needed. Rain chances will begin to increase Thursday however, Friday and Friday night into Saturday morning will have the greatest potential for rain with the best chance of thunderstorms some likely strong Friday night and early Saturday.

One last impact to mention. With days of onshore flow prior to the cold front we will have a rather well set up fetch out of the south. With winds quickly veering around to the north-northwest immediately behind the cold front there will be a window of what is called confused seas. The greatest potential appears to be in the outer waters(20-60nm) and west of the mouth of the MS River. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 60 78 59 77 / 10 0 0 10 BTR 62 81 61 81 / 10 0 0 20 ASD 59 78 58 78 / 10 0 10 10 MSY 63 80 62 80 / 0 0 10 10 GPT 61 74 59 74 / 10 0 0 10 PQL 59 77 58 76 / 0 10 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ068>071-077-083-086>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557.