textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Upper trough to our east extended from the St. Lawrence River Valley southwestward to the Florida Panhandle. Upper ridging extended from east Texas northward through the northern Plains States, with another off the California coast. A shortwave was noted over west Texas. The evening LIX sounding on Tuesday was in a post-storm environment and would not necessarily representative of what will be in place during the day today. Tuesday afternoon's storms mixed down some slightly cooler and drier air into the area, with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s, and dew points within a couple degrees of 70. Very little, if any, precipitation was occurring across the area early this morning. There was a large complex of thunderstorms across central Texas that is not an immediate threat to the local area.

The ridging to the west of us will work eastward across the local area today with the following trough axis extending from near Tulsa to Brownsville by Thursday afternoon. This should limit thunderstorm development somewhat, at least compared to yesterday, but certainly won't eliminate it entirely. Precipitable water values are forecast to be in the 1.8 to 1.9 range for most of the area, so there will still be plenty of moisture to work with. The complex of storms over Texas this morning is expected to remain primarily west of the area, but if they were to cross the Atchafalaya River Basin, it probably won't be until around or after sunset, and in a much weakened state. The more likely scenario for our area today would be more of the pulse type storms that commonly occur during the summer. The 12 hour PoPs in the forecast wouldn't be representative of instantaneous areal coverage at any time during the day, but over the 12 hour period, a good portion of the area will see precipitation at one time or another. Storms should wind down pretty quickly after sunset this evening, and a similar setup is anticipated on Thursday.

Temperatures should top out within a couple degrees of the 90 mark both today and tomorrow, depending on timing of storm development.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Upper ridging will anchor itself over the Bahamas to the east, and northern Mexico to the west, beginning on Friday and continuing into at least early next week. That will leave a relative weakness in the upper pattern across the lower Mississippi River Valley for most or all of that period. That will eventually change at the end of next week as ridging arrives over the local area. Until then, we can expect daily rounds of scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon hours over land, and overnight in the coastal waters as moisture levels never really dry out. Precipitable water values in the 1.75 to 2 inch range look to be pretty common for most of that time. High temperatures should generally remain near or slightly above 90 through early next week, but some of the extended guidance indicates mid 90s could become more common at the end of next week. With dew points expected to be in the lower and middle 70s for the extended portion of the forecast, that should set a lower bound for forecast low temperatures. No real opportunities to make significant inroads to improving the temperature forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

There's been a brief period of IFR or lower conditions at several terminals this morning, including at KBTR and KMCB. Those conditions, where they still exist, will improve to at least MVFR by 15z. Main threat of TSRA will be during the afternoon and evening hours. Areal coverage is expected to remain on the scattered side, but direct impacts could be MVFR or lower briefly. IFR conditions will again be possible at KMCB toward sunrise Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Winds that had briefly increased over the coastal waters in the wake of the convection were in the process of easing at this writing, and no indications that headlines will be necessary with this package. Main concern for marine operations will be the potential for thunderstorms to produced localized hazardous conditions. That will be the case each day/night through the forecast period. Do not anticipate a need for advisories or Exercise Caution headlines at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 89 72 90 73 / 60 30 80 20 BTR 90 74 91 75 / 80 40 80 20 ASD 90 73 91 75 / 60 40 70 20 MSY 90 77 91 78 / 70 30 80 20 GPT 88 76 89 78 / 70 40 70 30 PQL 89 73 90 75 / 70 40 70 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.