textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1034 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through today. The ongoing drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and light to moderate winds will lead to potential for some fire spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Wind speeds are expected to rise once again over most of the coastal waters later today causing additional small craft advisories to be posted for mainly open gulf waters. - Minor coastal flooding is likely along scetions of the Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory will be issued for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

H3 jet winds now beginning to approach the Baha so there could be some sampling by the 12z upper air obs this morning for at least the physics models to become a bit more agreeable. The upper level cirrus shield over the area this morning if from Tropical Storm Vance which is beginning to get picked up by the short wave moving into the base of the long wave eastPAC trough. This will basically slingshot Vance inland, bringing its deep moisture through northern Mexico and west/central TX late today and Fri. For our area, this will help bring a line of higher dew pt air and deeper moisture profiles starting late Fri with deep enough moisture to produce showers and a few storms Sat. The ridging from the NE will hold strong in the area at least into Sat morning but will give way to this moisture advancement possibly bringing sh/ts toward noon Sat or shortly after. This feature is acting as a warm front and profiled variables do not look supportive of severe storms. Fog this morning will still need to depend on cloud cover which is at least enough for now to keep it from forming, but where it is capable of clearing, there could be some fog form where sfc temps can fall to around 52F. Winds will come around to a more easterly direction late today into Fri and remain through the weekend. This will help push some water levels higher and with the help of a king tide cycle, this could be just enough to cause some coastal flooding for a few locations along the coast. For now, Hancock County looks like the only area that these levels will cause some nuisance inundation at high tide times through tonight. This may be extended to include other locations along the coast through the weekend but should not be widespread.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

On Monday some weak and brief upper level shortwave ridging will spread over the region, but will quickly be replaced with an active southwest flow as a robust upper level trough digs across the high plains and central U.S. Eyes are still focused to the northwest as a cold front pushes south and east toward our region around midweek or so. The globals are gradually starting to agree more in terms of timing and strength of the system. The GFS has moved generally toward the operational ECMWF solution we have consistently been seeing. This will increase confidence a bit, but still about 12 hours separate the frontal passage. That said, now that the GFS is slower a stronger return flow ahead of the system takes shape and should lead to an increase in POPs through the medium range, or specifically Wednesday and early Thursday. The upper level low...very robust will help inject quite a bit of upper level cooling. Severe storms would not be impossible, especially with more low level warm moist air advecting into the region. However, the mesoscale specifics are still a bit unclear at this range. Overall, it appears shear with this system will not be lacking, and with the cooling and better lapse rates, instability will likely be there at least in a modest sense...so this is one item to monitor over the next several days. Timing as always will be a factor.

As for temperatures, with moderate onshore flow continued above average temperatures through most of the medium range as well. As much as 5-8 degrees above average respectively both afternoon high temperatures and overnight lows. We will need to watch temperatures behind the front and still with some reasonable uncertainty in timing, temperatures toward the end of the period will be a bit more tricky. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters through the upcoming weekend and into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However, the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Smaller craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the open Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for east facing shores starting through the weekend. There will be some passing showers and a few thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through, but no significant impacts to maritime activities are expected from the weak thunderstorms that do develop.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ086.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM CDT Friday for MSZ086.

GM...None.