textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 degree range through the weekend. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief.

- Isolated storms are expected this afternoon and evening with more scattered storms Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

WV imagery shows the large stacked high over the SW CONUS sharply amplified northward into the west coast of Canada. This sharp amplification is what causeD the trough to the east of it to drop quickly into the deep south over our area. This trough will now get tempered and settle back into the SE CONUS where we should see the normal daily sh/ts develop. This does not mean there will be no storms here, we just won't see what we did yesterday. The stacked high will begin to shift east again and settle in the northern TX panhandle by the start of the new week. The good thing is that we will be in the "ring of fire" area on its periphery. We will get hot with heat advisories continuing and it is this heat that will help produce the storms that we see Sunday and Monday. We will remain in a northerly to NW flow pattern, so storms each day will still have the potential to become strong to severe.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Going into Wednesday and especially Thursday there will finally be somewhat of a pattern change. A fairly robust H5 short wave will dig over the Ozarks and down the MS River Valley. This will allow for higher POPs and lower afternoon temps going late into the next workweek. Wednesday POPs will be around climo during the diurnal cycle. By Thursday with the upper support and the upper level ridge losing some of its grip, more numerous showers and storms will be possible. Globals have continued to illustrate the same picture, so NBM has finally adjusted upward in POPs and downward with temperatures just a skosh. That said, heat headlines may still be needed on Wednesday. And sadly we cannot completely rule them out throughout the entire long term period. However, with more moisture around and upper level support helping trigger those diurnally driven showers and storms, an earlier initiation time will be likely overall limit the impacts from the heat. As time progresses and in building a bit more certainty in higher than climo POPs for Thursday and Friday, we may be able to bring down temperatures further allowing for more limits on those continued heat headlines. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Most terminals will be VFR through this cycle with the exception of HUM. HUM will have the higher of all sites for TSRA late today so the current pack will show timing in a prob group for this.

MARINE

Issued at 1024 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Northely winds around 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through much of next week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.