textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- A weak tropical wave will continue to bring plenty of showers and a few storms to the area this weekend. As the wave moves west, winds and rain chances will lower as we move into the new week.

- As easterly to east-southeasterly winds ease, it will allow water levels to ease as well causing coastal flood advisories to drop. Winds will fall to around 10 to 15 knots which will keep tide levels abnormally high today. More easing of these tide levels is expected Sunday into the new work week. - Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widespread light to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12 corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing locally heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

This afternoon and early evening is probably the last gasp of any real impacts. Convection finally started to develop and spread across the region late this morning and through midday. With abundant moisture in place showers and any thunderstorms will be efficient rain producers and a quick 1-2 inches of rain and as we continue to see a few banded areas of rain we will likely run into isolated flash flooding. Most areas through this evening will see rain of 0.5 an inch to just under 2" while there will be streaks of 2 to possibly as much as 6/7 inches. Convection will continue into the evening and may persist somewhat into the overnight hours but the more intense rain will likely start to wane during the mid/late evening hours.

Sunday will be the last day with above normal PoPs. We will still have abundant moisture in place and the ridge aloft will not have quite built in yet from the eastern Gulf as the southern Plains s/w pulls off to the north. This will lead to our northern half and maybe more so northwestern half of the area having the best chance for rain as subsidence starts to increase across the southeastern 3rd of the CWA.

Heading into the new workweek ridging will build over the area. This will help to keep PoPs down some but once again this ridge is building in from the southeast and will be more of a dirty ridge. Mid lvl hghts will only be around 589-591 dm and PWs will still be ATA 2" to start Monday but some drier air may rotate around dropping the PWs to around 1.75 by midday Tuesday. Because of that we still have PoPs in the forecast but nothing like we have has the last few days. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Extended portion of the forecast for the most part is much quieter than the short term. Things will get a little drier and warmer as we trend more towards a typical Summertime environment. Medium range models overall have a fairly similar pattern through much of the work week but they start to diverge at the end of the work week and especially into next weekend. That said even with the differences in the models the sensible forecast for our area is fairly similar. With that no changes made to the extended.

Ridge dominating the Lower MS and much of the southeastern CONUS will remain in place for another 36 to 48 hours however we will need to watch the L/W trough moving across the northern half of the CONUS. Right now that trough it looks like it will just surge east. With the mid lvl jet likely having already rounded the base of it and moving to the downstream side, its not going to want to dig but combine the fact that there will be a ridge to the south which will block it should keep things on the slightly drier and warmer side through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

Yes There have been some hints at another wave moving into the Gulf out of the Caribbean but models are all over the place with it and at this time there is no indication that we have anything to be concerned about. Lets say it again, it is Hurricane Season and we should always be paying attention to the tropics and staying updated/informed. However, until there is something to worry about, do not worry or waste your time with it. /CAB/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Convection is or will impact most if not all terminals and the biggest impact is MVFR cigs and IFR vsbys, possibly even LIFR vsybys with the stronger storms. Outside of convection there is still a good chance that most terminals will have to deal with low cigs around 2200-3k ft. Convection should slowly begin to dissipate early this evening from southwest to northeast but some if not most terminals may still be dealing with low cigs especially if heavy rain occurred over any of those terminals. MVFR cigs that do develop will likely persist well into tomorrow morning. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Winds are beginning to relax and will continue through the remainder of the weekend and into the new workweek. Winds are still around 15-20 knots in the open waters right now and may persist just into the evening but these should fall off very quick with to near 10 knots before sunrise Sunday. Over the protected waters and especially the tidal lakes winds are already down to 10-15 knots and those will also continue to relax. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with the higher coverage early in the forecast period. Winds and seas will locally be high in and near convection. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ058-082-084- 098.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.