textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

- Dry weather is expected until at least Tuesday. A quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances Tuesday or Wednesday. An additional weather system could move across the area next Friday or Saturday.

- Beyond early Sunday morning, above normal temperatures are expected for the next week.

- Fog potential will increase beginning Monday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

A negatively tilted upper trough was over New England this evening. Shortwave ridging was noted over Texas and Oklahoma, with the main ridge over the Rockies. A shortwave was noted moving southeastward through Montana, while a southern stream upper low/shortwave was just off the Baja California coast. The main upper trough to the west was well off the Pacific coast. At the surface, high pressure extended from Ohio to east Texas. A surface trough or frontal boundary extended from the Dakotas to the Oklahoma Panhandle. Under clear skies, temperatures were in the mainly in the 40s, but a few spots had dipped into the upper 30s.

While the upper low near Baja California doesn't appear to make much progress eastward over the next 36 hours, a shortwave in advance of it will eject northeastward into the Plains States Sunday. This won't have much impact on the sensible weather other than perhaps a few high clouds. The pressure gradient will tighten a little bit by Monday, and the onshore flow should gradually increase moisture levels. An increase in moisture is somewhat of a relative term at this point, as the current precipitable water values near 0.3 inches ranks at about the the percentile climatologically. By sunrise Tuesday morning, those numbers are still at 0.7 inches or less, which doesn't even rise to the median/mean (0.75 inches). That pretty much relegates this portion of the forecast to a cloud and temperature forecast. We could certainly see some high clouds by Monday or so. There's some potential for fog around sunrise Monday and perhaps Tuesday, especially west of Interstate 55 and near the coast.

Guidance has struggled with high temperatures the past couple of days, with reported high temperatures well above guidance. The NBM the percentile was actually more representative of conditions than the GFS/ECMWF/NBM operational numbers, by about 3-5 degrees. If that trend continues, most of the area will be well into the low/mid 70s Sunday afternoon, and about 4 degrees warmer than that on Monday. I'd note that the NBM the percentile would give about the western half of the CWA a pretty good chance of touching 80 Monday afternoon. Sunday morning lows will be in the upper 30s in well protected areas, and in the 40s elsewhere. Monday morning could be 8-10F warmer, and perhaps another 5F warmer on Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The southern stream shortwave/low over Baja California Monday night will eject northeastward and weaken Tuesday and Tuesday night. By midday Wednesday, the trough axis will be east of the local area. Precipitable water values will increase to the 1.0 to 1.2 range Tuesday, which is around the the percentile. Instability and shear remain very meager. If there's any thunder at all with that shortwave, it would be on Wednesday, and was sorely tempted to omit the mention of thunder. The precipitable water values from Tuesday remain fairly constant through Friday. Beyond the Tuesday night shortwave passage, there's no strong indications of a shortwave passage until perhaps around next Saturday, when precipitable water values spike to about 1.5 inches. A frontal boundary to our north could drift into the area on Thursday, but the more significant chance for precipitation looks to be with the Saturday shortwave, primarily Saturday afternoon/night. That's at the very end of the forecast cycle, but something that will need to be watched as there will be plenty of outdoor activities next weekend.

Temperatures...very warm with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. NBM the percentile would signal mid and upper 70s for much of the area Tuesday and Wednesday, but the the percentile, which has been more representative the last couple days, would have areas west of Interstate 55 potentially reaching the lower 80s on multiple days. Those numbers would be very close to record highs on several days. The exceptions to the threat of records would probably be on the Mississippi coast. South winds and/or sea breezes would cut off heating near or shortly after 1 PM CST along the coast, and could even cool things, as observations indicate that most nearshore water temperatures are in the mid 50s. That might limit highs on the immediate coast to around 70.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions expected through at least 06z Monday, although we may start seeing some high clouds prior to sunset Sunday. The threat for fog will increase toward sunrise Monday, which will be more of an issue for the 12z TAF package.

MARINE

Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Wind speeds have dropped off to 10 to 15 knots at most observation points, and are likely to remain below 15 knots for most or all of the next week. This will create more favorable wind/wave conditions for marine operations into early next week. However, with warmer air moving over the cooler waters, fog development will be possible, beginning perhaps as early as Monday morning.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.