textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon. Any storms will be very slow moving and may generate enough rain to cause localized flooding in poorly drained and low lying areas.

- Heat index values will climb to around 105 each day, but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Typical August weather pattern continues through short term period. In the lower levels we have the western edge of high pressure controlling our conditions. In the upper levels we sit between the high pressure over the desert southwest and the western periphery of the Bermuda high. The controlling flow at both levels is northerly bringing Gulf moisture onshore and includes a small amount of lift due to upper level vorticity. The moisture and lift will bring our typical summertime popcorn storms which could be strong, but are not exptected to reach severe criteria.

So, we see temperatures ranging between the mid 70s for overnight lows to afternoon highs in the low 90s. Humidity levels are forecasted be typical and will carry the feels-like temps into the 100-105 range. The afternoon temperatures will be dependent on exact timing and placement of any storms that pop up and drop rain on a given location. Those storms will be stationary or very slow moving, so there is a possibility of minor, localized flooding in poorly drained and low lying areas.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

August weather continues on into August as we look through the end of next week. Much of the same conditions described in the Short Term discussions continue through the forecast period. Southerly winds will remain through the extended keeping sfc moisture available but mid level dry air will help keep PW values in the 50th to 75th percentile range, which means isolated to scattered afternoon convection looks to be the consistent trend for much of next week.

In the absence of sh/ts, temps will climb into the 90s each day and heat index readings should also be flirting with advisory numbers next week, mainly by mid next week. Wind speeds should be just enough to keep ventilation raised but it won't be much longer before even the winds weaken to the point that it can barely be felt, which is common for August.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR condition across the area will continue through the period. Isolated showers and storms are expected, but are low probability for any given location so are not coded in the TAFs; however, visibility could be reduced if a storm occurs directly at a terminal.

MARINE

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Through the weekend and into early next week, a predominantly but somewhat variable southerly to easterly flow of around 10 knots will keep seas of 1 to 2 feet in place across all of the waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up each day in the early morning hours before moving inland by the afternoon hours. These storms will produce lightning strikes, heavy downpours, a few waterspouts, and locally higher winds and waves. Overall, a very typical pattern will be in place for early August.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.