textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Dangerous heat will remain to be the primary concern today. Peak heat index values of 110 to 115 degrees remain possible, with limited overnight relief. Heat backs down some on Thursday, but a Heat Advisory will still be in effect for all areas with forecast max heat indices in the 108-110 degree range.

- Afternoon/evening scattered rain chances increase on Thursday through parts of the upcoming weekend as a front drifts into the area from the north. Repeated thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially where storms train. Additionally, a few isolated strong storms will be possible with gusty winds in excess of 40-50mph the main risks.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Starting things off with this afternoon looking at GOES-16 VIS, reveals some interesting features. Namely, W to WNW sfc to low- level winds providing a few subtle confluence bands, one over the Southshore, few across coastal SE LA and another in association with the NE drifting seabreeze over the northshore. Now, nearby ridging/surface high pressure has aided in suppression the past few days, but we're starting to see some response in the ridge pulling west, revealing a more moist thermal profile. This, combined with just subtle enough focused confluence in these WNW boundaries could squeeze off a few showers in these areas later today. Greater confidence will come across coastal MS where there is deeper moisture/less influence of the ridge where the seabreeze drifting north could spark a few showers/storms from Hancock to the east. Not anticipating any major impacts, but something to monitor.

Otherwise, the heat is on. No adjustments were needed for current hazards in effect. Could distinctly see some 113-115's around the tidal lakes so continue to exercise extreme caution if outdoors for extended periods.

Clear calm tonight, but we start to see a bit of a pattern change tomorrow as a subtle/weak front drifts in from the north to around south-central MS and Al. This, along with building weakness aloft and an increase in tropospheric moisture/diurnal support will be plenty to aid in an enhancement in mainly afternoon/evening convection, with best chances/coverage east of I-55. Did introduce another Heat Advisory for all areas again tomorrow from 11AM-7PM. Did note that some isolated areas around the tidal lakes taps 113, but NWS Heat Risk does drop off some and with greater coverage potential in the afternoon/residual anvil canopy spreading SW could inhibit any notable widespread risk for extreme heat. However, should that change, will update. KLG

Friday and Saturday, rain chances remain enhanced to continue to help suppress heat concerns, but could introduce now risks for raining storms producing isolated flash flooding, and, a few strong storms given downward transport potential each afternoon. The next focus becomes a shortwave impulse riding SE on the eastern periphery of the west-coast ridge into the SE US, helping to uptick rain chances yet again, along with a few strong, potentially severe storms at times, particularly Friday and Saturday. KLG

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Sunday, still seeing indications of the apex/end of the shortwave trough breaking off within a building east US blocking pattern. This will need to be watched and can throw some curveballs, because any meandering upper-low can either 1) enhance (greater) coverage or 2) drifts south or east of the area helping to drag drier air into the southern US. For now, it's trending a tad drier but that could change. Advertising low confidence for now, just something to monitor. KLG

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Expect primarily VFR conditions for all area terminals through the forecast period. Will monitor for an outside risk of a -SHRA or -TSRA from KBTR to KMSY including KHUM, but for now chances are too low to mention in TAFs. Otherwise, winds will become clear/light tonight with VFR prevailing. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Nearby surface high pressure will continue to promote clear/calm conditions today, however an inland front will continue to slowly sag south towards the northern Gulf coast Thursday through the upcoming weekend. This will provide an increase in scattered to numerous rain chances, introducing some risks for some strong to isolated severe storms at times, primarily for wind gusts >34kts, waterspouts and locally enhanced waves/seas. Outside of this activity, winds will prevail generally out of the west, light in protected waters to breezy at 8-12kts for outer Gulf waters. Waves/seas will remain mainly calm through late week, but could uptick into the 3-5ft range provided persistent westerly fetch for Gulf zones south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. KLG

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056-071-090>097.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ057-058- 064-070-076>087-089-098>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>085.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.