textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 112 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Heat impacts are expected today and Sunday. Heat index values may approach 105 degrees, so use caution during prolonged outdoor activity.

- Flash flooding risk increases Monday. Higher rain chances return early next week, with a Slight Risk, Level 2 out of 4, for Flash Flooding Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mid-level ridging continues to sit along the northern Gulf Coast today just like it has been for the past few days. This ridging is keeping a surface high pressure over the northeastern Gulf with south to southeasterly surface winds here locally. This is helping to pump deeper moisture into the area with PW reaching over 2 inches across the majority of the area. Due to the PW being over the 90th percentile for today, coupled with expected lake and seabreeze boundaries, PoPs sere slightly upped along the immediate southshore and coastal MS. Both the HREF and REFS agreed with higher coverage for this afternoon starting around 2pm and lasting until sunset, so that gave more confidence in increasing the PoPs. Outside of the rain, heat will be a concern today. The aforementioned ridging and high pressure has promotes temps to be reaching into the low to mid 90s. Couple that with the moisture advection from the south to southeasterly flow brining in mid 70s dewpoints, and we get heat indices in the 100-105 range. Although this is technically not heat advisory criteria, this is our first hot spell of the summer and the area has not be acclimated yet. Therefore, if anyone is working or will be outside for a prolonged period of time today, please take breaks and hydrate in the heat.

Sunday will largely be a carbon copy of Saturday as the ridge continue to sit over the northern Gulf for one more day. This will lead to continued rich moisture advection into the area and yet another day of mostly scattered convection along lake and seabreezes. The heat risk will also remain elevated for another day with highs in the mid 90s and dew points in the 100 to 105 range.

Troughing coming down from the Ozarks and into the lower MS River Valley will finally break down the ridge along the northern Gulf on Monday. The cold front associated with that system is expected to move into northern Louisiana by early Monday morning. The mid- level flow is expected to transition to more of a zonal flow along the front as the main impulse of energy moves eastward across the southeast. This will lead to the front really slowing down late Monday and during the day Tuesday. Out ahead of the front, more deep tropical moisture advection from the wave currently being outlooked in the SW Gulf is expected over the area ahead of the front, leading to PW values nearing the daily max of 2.2 inches. This will lead to much higher rain chances on Monday and Tuesday with the higher forcing and moisture across the area with very efficient rainfall. Totals for Monday and Tuesday seem to be in the 1-3 inch range along and north of the I-12 corridor with locally higher amounts of 5-6 inches possible in that area since that area is closer to the front. Therefore, we are in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall/flash flooding on Monday and Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Drier mid-level air seem to make a very brief appearance on Wednesday, knocking down the PoPs by 20-30%. There is still expected to be scattered convection across the area with the forcing of the mid-level flow and front across the area. Because we will not have as much deep-layer moisture, the excessive rainfall threat is slightly lower at a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 4). However, depending on how much rain falls Monday and Tuesday and where, the rain on Wednesday could still be impactful during the afternoon and evening.

Thursday could get interesting in terms of active weather as the upper low associated with the tropical wave in the SW Gulf moves northward across the northern Gulf. Model consensus has the upper-low moving across SW LA, making us be in the favorable area for active weather. The main threat would be mini tropical-like funnels and tornadoes on Thursday. The main thing to watch out for is if the impulse can stay further west of the area, meaning more of C LA will see these impacts. With it being 6 days out, it's something to keep an eye on for now as we get closer, but there at least seems to be a low-end threat for tropical tornadoes on Thursday, especially western areas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Only impact that will be in this forecast cycle is scattered convection at MSY and NEW this afternoon and evening as storms grow along a lakebreeze boundaries. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

High pressure over the eastern Gulf and Florida will continue to dominate the coastal waters through the rest of the weekend and into the start of next week. As a result, a steady south to southeasterly flow will persist, with winds generally around 10 to 15 knots. These conditions will keep seas near 2 to 4 feet across the open Gulf waters, while the sounds and tidal lakes remain closer to 1 to 2 feet. By Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary is expected to settle near the area and eventually stall, bringing a more unsettled pattern with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Winds may also trend a bit higher at times through at least midweek. The tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf is also expected to move northward by mid- week, with with approaching advisory criteria by Wednesday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.