textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts and some localized flooding issues are expected, mainly along and south of I-10. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates regarding this threat. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown!

- Larger than normal tide ranges and onshore flow will produce minor coastal flooding especially on southeast facing shore lines during the high tide cycle the next several nights. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in place.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche will continue to push a plume of deep tropical moisture into the region through tomorrow. At the same time, Pacific based moisture will feed into the region on the back of an passing weak shortwave trough axis. This will help to keep PWATS near the daily max or around 2.5 to 2.6 inches through Sunday evening. Upper level support for rain development will also improve as the region becomes embedded beneath the right entrance of jet streak tonight into tomorrow. In the low levels, a weak front will slowly slide through the area tonight into tomorrow. Low level convergence along the frontal boundary will serve as the primary focusing mechanism for heavier rainfall development as we move into tonight and tomorrow. A review of the latest high resolution modeling indicates the front will stall along the I-10 corridor in coastal Mississippi and then extend west-southwest across the tidal lakes and into southwestern Louisiana over this period. The highest rainfall probabilities are across coastal Mississippi, where storm total rainfall could be in the 6 to 10 inch range by Sunday evening, and this is where a flood watch for flash flooding has been issued starting at 10 am today. Further to the west, rainfall probabilities are more in the 3 to 6 inch range for metro New Orleans and coastal Louisiana. Although a flood watch is not in effect for these areas, everyone should remain vigilant for some localized street flooding issues over the weekend. Moving north of the front, a sharp gradient in rainfall will be in place as forcing will be largely isentropic in the low to mid-levels. This will result in a lower convective threat and more of a long duration light to moderate stratiform rain threat. Rainfall totals should generally be 1 to 2 inches in these over the weekend. Given the high rain and cloud cover coverage expected, temperatures will be cooler than average in the low to mid 80s today and tomorrow, but the high humidity will keep lows warmer than average in the low to mid 70s.

By Monday and Tuesday, density driven movement of the front from the rain cooled airmass in the region and weak cold air advection on the back of an increasing northeast wind will push the front somewhere just offshore in the northern Gulf. Although some drier air will begin to feed into the region on the back of the northeast flow, enough lingering moisture for areas along and south of I-10 and weak isentropic forcing from a prevailing west- southwest flow in the mid-levels will support continued light rain shower development both days. PoP will generally be in the 30 to 50 percent range from I-10 southward with PoP of 20 percent or less for points to the north. Temperatures will rebound slightly as cloud cover breaks up a bit with the introducing of drier mid- level air over northern areas with readings rising back to average in the mid 80s both days. With drier and cooler air moving into northern areas, lows Monday night will easily dip into the mid to upper 60s north of I-10 while remaining in the lower 70s south of I-10. The days and nights will actually feel a bit like Fall for the northern third of the CWA to start the week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Troughing will be along the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday evening, with the associated frontal boundary well offshore over the Gulf. The main question at that point is how far south the drier air will have infiltrated the CWA at that time. The northwest half of the area should at least be rid of the deeper moisture by that point, but it may take a portion of Wednesday before the Mississippi Gulf Coast and areas of southeast Louisiana south of Lake Pontchartrain dry out. Any dry period looks to be short lived, as deeper moisture returns late Friday night of next week.

Highs will be in the 80s next week, and if clouds are a little more extensive than currently forecast, a few isolated locations could remain below 80 degrees Wednesday. However, it should be noted that the NBM deterministic highs for the extended period are several degrees below the NBM 50th percentile. The NBM 50th percentile max temperatures wouldn't rule out 90 degree highs at the end of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Another round of showers and storms will impact all of the terminals during the day on Saturday with periods of IFR and MVFR visibility restrictions of 2 to 5 miles, MVFR ceilings of 1500 to 2500 feet, gusty winds of up to 25 knots, and lightning strikes. The most likely time period for these impacts will be between 14z and 20z at the more coastal terminals of MSY, HUM, NEW, ASD, HDC, and GPT with a slightly later time of 17z to 23z for BTR and MCB. PROB30 wording is in place to reflect this risk. Outside of the convective threat, prevailing MVFR and VFR conditions are expected with ceilings of 2000 to 3000 feet. After 00z, low stratus will begin to form beneath a weak inversion formed from the rain cooled airmass in place, and prevailing IFR conditions from ceilings of 500 to 1000 feet will take at all of the terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A tightening pressure gradient over the coastal waters will form in response to a developing low pressure system in the western Gulf. This will allow southeast winds to remain elevated near 15 knots with higher gusts today. Very choppy seas of 4 to 6 feet will accompany these winds in the open Gulf waters. The lakes and sounds will see slightly lower winds closer to 10 knots and choppy conditions. Winds will briefly relax to 10 knots or less on Sunday as a front stalls along the coast. This front is expected to then slowly push through the waters on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will turn northeasterly behind the front and increase back to 15 to 20 knots as cooler and drier air advects over the warm waters. Another low will form along the front by Wednesday, and this should increase winds in small craft advisory range of 20 to 25 knots through the end of the week. Seas will also increase to 5 to 7 feet by Wednesday and remain at those levels through the end of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ064- 070-076-078-091-093-095-097.

GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MSZ086>088.

Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for MSZ083>088.

GM...None.