textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- A drier pattern is expected through at least the weekend. The primary concern will be increasing heat, with heat indices potentially approaching advisory criteria Friday onward.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

High pressure currently centered over the eastern gulf will move slowly west then north eventually becoming centered directly over SELA by late this evening. The main ridge lobe extending from this center to the NW will begin to slowly pivot from its current location of Amarillo to New Orleans into more of a north-south orientation by Fri morning. One can follow the wind field at 850mb to see it, but it is most discernable by the QPF fields(or lack thereof) in every model. The high's center then slowly moves farther west and meanders around the NW gulf into SWLA over the weekend while at the same time the ridge extending from its center orients more NE-SW. This sets the stage for a sfc trough to dip into the SE CONUS by this evening as the high vacates the eastern gulf. The sfc trough(front) in focus here is currently located from the southern tip of Illinois through central Tennessee then down the GA/SC state line into the Atlantic. This is where the Hurricane Center has a 20% chance of development outlooked. The storms that are produced by this front, along with the frontal axis, will rapidly move southward into the NE gulf tonight into Friday. Frontal movement into the gulf or off the Atlantic seaboard this time of year always needs to be watched and this one will be no different. The area over the NE gulf could fester for several days, but the area will also be interacting with a TUTT low directly over it for at least a few days. The TUTT low is currently over the FL Keys and western Cuba moving slowly northward. If there were a maritime high over this area, it would be a bit more concerning. But it would take more time for the TUTT low to weaken then become weakly diffluent enough to help something get started. Regarless, the moisture and storms that are produced by this will also pivot westward very slowly through the weekend as the high moves farther west. This could bring some of the moisture over our area as early as Sat evening(I55 eastward). This is about as far west as it will get through the weekend and chances are not huge as far as precip numbers go. The main thrust of this moisture well into the area would take several, if not more, days after the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Taking a look at guidance for the long term, the NBM seems to be running fairly high for temperatures especially for northeast areas early next week. Not buying the 99s and 100s that it is pulling in for Tuesday as that is a good 10 degrees above climos. Guidance is running closer to the mid 90s, so will have to continue monitoring how that plays out. Regardless, it will still be rather hot in the long term period and will likely have days of heat headlines in our future. Overnight lows will hangout in the mid to upper 70s, but a few urban areas may not drop below 80 at night early to mid next week. Outside of the heat, the low pressure in the northeastern Gulf looks to stretch out late in the weekend and into early next week. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to dominate the western Gulf. Most days there will be some isolated rain chances, but they will mostly be confined to eastern areas and the offshore marine areas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Winds will generally become more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf through the end of the week. The number of storms will be lower through the remainder of the week, but any that do develop will cause wind direction and speed to become erratic and strong.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.