textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 446 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- The potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will continue TOday into Tuesday as a frontal boundary stalls over the area.

- A drier pattern is expected during the later half of the week into next weekend. The primary concern will then shift toward increasing heat, with heat indices potentially approaching advisory criteria Friday onward.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

A frontal boundary, or better characterized as a baroclinic zone as there is no air mass differences on either side of it at the sfc, is better noticed at 850mb this morning stalling over the southern states. Satellite imagery shows this well. The environment over the trough axis is very reminiscent of a maritime high with moderate diflunence aloft which is what one would look for when calling heavy rainfall possibilities. There will be outflows all over the place today and more storms will develop along those as well. The first set of storms expected to develop is over or near the Atchafalaya Bay area and spread eastward along a land brz handing along the coast. The activity to our north should continue weakening. As heating starts and cloud cover decays, we should then see a xfer inland with development later this morning. Today should give the most widespread and heaviest coverage of storms and rainfall. There will be storms around Tue, but shouldn't be as widespread. Wed through Thu should be much the same with a bit less coverage but still should have storms around but with more scattered coverage. The reason for this is kind of strange in one way, and we will try to explain this here.

At the present time this morning there is an upper low with a mid level and even a weak sfc reflection over central and eastern Kentucky/Tennessee. This stacked low will begin moving SW down the southern Appalachain Range this morning. This feature will move just north of the frontal interface over the deep south over the next few days. If one looks at winds on the H3 and H85 levels, it is clearly evident where the low is at each of these levels. Over the next few days, the H3 low moves well into central and west TX while the H85 low moves into northern Miss and southern Arkansas and stalls. This causes the vertical alignment to become stretched and break eventually. This then causes a meso-high to form between causing subsidence and drying starting late Tue becoming strongest Wed into Thu. The strongest part of this meso-ridge will be found from Amarillo to Dallas to New Orleans starting late Tue through Thu. The strange thing to watch is a baroclinic sfc low that is currently open over the central Appalachians, deepen and move SW then west outside any easterly environment. This can easily be seen on any model showing sfc pressure. This scenario will cause most storm activity to be concentrated around these two lows. One in and around the Arklamiss area Tue through Thu and another over central and western TX. We kind of get stuck between these two systems which helps bring less storms after today. But we still won't be shutting off the water works completely for a while.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Heading into the second half of the work week and next weekend we will see things initially start off drier and hot. The weakness/trough over the area through Tuesday will be sliding west. This will allow the ridge that will be centered over the Mid/Upper MS Valley Tue to begin to slide southeast into the southeastern CONUS by Thu. The ridge continues to work southeast towards the Atlantic and off the GA/FL coast by the end of the weekend. With that we never quite move directly under it and thus never quite completely shut down the thunderstorm potential. Thursday is likely the best day where we could remain completely dry as hghts will likely be at their highest and it looks like we get some drier air into the region. But even then we can't completely rule out isolated storms during the afternoon.

By Friday there appears to be a TUTT moving across the central/north- central Gulf and that will begin to weaken the ridge over the north- central Gulf and thus allow for a few more thunderstorms to develop. Scattered storms are then expected each afternoon through next weekend.

As for temps we will see a return of lower to mid 90s on Thursday given far few storms and slightly warmer low level temps. As the low level moisture starts to creep back up as well we may see a few locations push heat advisory criteria for the end of the work week and next weekend but depending on amount of convection much of the area could remain just below especially once storms develop. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Cigs will help lower thresholds this morning and again tonight. IFR may be found through mid morning at MCB and MVFR cigs at BTR. Cigs will rise to VFR outside any storm activity after mid morning. Cigs will fall once again to these levels overnight tonight. SHRA and TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 groups as coverage will be widespread but not constant at any given terminal. Terminals that are impacted by TSRA will have IFR to MVFR conditions temporarily. Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Outside outflow boundaries from storms, a predominate southerly wind around 10 knots will remain through Wednesday. Wind direction will shift to westerly and eventually NW Thursday through the end of the week. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet over the open Gulf waters and 2 feet or less across the protected waters. Thunderstorms remain the primary short-duration hazard. Storms may produce frequent lightning, waterspouts, and sudden wind shifts and strong gusts with locally higher waves. Thunderstorm coverage should be greatest through Tuesday before decreasing later in the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.