textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Persistent easterly winds will continue to to push water towards the coast leading to minor coastal flooding at high tide tonight. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding. - Next system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will begin during the Tuesday impacting election day while stronger storms will be possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday with the front.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Last night was rough. Tried to highlight some of the ingredients and the setup which could lead to very efficient thunderstorms and isolated heavy rain however, at no point did it cross my mind that we could possibly get up 12-17" in Pearl River County much less the 5-8" around the immediate Southshore. In addition it looked like the potential for heavy rain would have been a little more over our northwest but it didn't work out that way. There was another isolated storm that produced over 12" of rain last night near Oakdale between Lafayette and Alexandria, so there was very heavy rain to our west-northwest just outside of our outlook area. The other highly unusual aspect of this that wasn't that there was one storm that led to these extreme rainfall amounts, it was that most of the area struggled to receive anything more than a few hundredths. Only a handful of locations saw 0.25-0.5" but the fact that there were not one, not two, but multiple yet very isolated locations that saw multiple inches of rain with 2 locations that saw more than 12" of rain is quite rare. This is what is making the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon and evening difficult.

We don't have the same set up but any means. The PW's are lower around 1.6-1.7 but that is still around the 90th percentile for this time of the year however, we are missing one key feature. The jet is not in the right spot. Last night we were in the prime location (LFQ) leading to strong diffluence aloft. We don't have that right now and it won't improve over night. That said there is the potential for isolated heavy rain. By no means are we expecting anything similar to last night but one or two storms anchored leading to 3 to 5 inches is not out of the question. The rain chances should drop off considerably late this evening and overnight. As for tomorrow we should be drier with s/w ridging over the area but since we won't completely clear out the moisture we could have isolated to scattered light showers after we start to warm up. May also have a little help from isentropic lift.

The main concern is the system Tuesday and Tuesday night. This system is already coming onshore. The models are already coming into better agreement again and I expect to see them continue to converge on a solid solution over the next 12-24 hours. The biggest shift in the models is the potential for strong to severe storms does appear to be much lower than previously thought and even the amount of rain anticipated with this time system looks much lower. Main issue is that models now are in agreement that the bulk of the dynamics will remain well north of here and the trough will be more broad as it moves through the Lower MS Valley. Like was mentioned yesterday the mid level jet max that merges with the L/W trough does cause the system to pull farther north. The broader trough means the trough axis moves in and passes through the area Wednesday morning. This is slower than previously advertised and this is also more broad lift and not as strong as a sharper negatively tilted trough would have caused. The sfc low is well north of the area with a weak elongated front moving in overnight and early Wednesday. This all suggest a lower potential for strong/severe storms however it does not remove the threat completely. Instability will be lacking especially is we have a good bit of cloud cover and even light showers Tuesday. This will keep the area from recovering. This doesn't lead to steep lapse rates either especially given the less dynamic system we will have to work with. Any LL jet that tries to develop will be well north placing us at the base if not even farther south from the base of the LL jet. One positive aspect is the jet. We could still feel the possible effects of a coupled jet like structure with enhanced diffluence and divergence aloft especially over the northwestern portions of the CWA. And it is that locations that has the best chance of seeing strong storms.

SPC has a Marginal Risk in place for the far northwest and it will mainly be with any storms associated with the front overnight. WPC also has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for the northwest 3rd of the CWA but given the lack of support now and weak front we are looking at rainfall totals with this system likely below 0.5" for much with the area with isolated locations possibly up to 1- 1.5". /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

After our system on Tuesday night/Wednesday the forecast gets a little quieter and overall the medium range guidance is in decent agreement. The continuity within the models hasn't been the greatest but it has just mainly been some timing and strength issues the consistency between the models has actually not been that bad and to be honest over the last 3-4 days they have had better consistency between them for Wednesday and into next weekend compared to yesterday through Tuesday night. You would think it would be the opposite a lot of times but given the change in the pattern and rather potent east Pac trough that isn't unreasonable. Typical models struggle with pattern changes, usually timing but also strength at times. However, once the pattern does transition or the models think it has they tend to come back into better agreement. All that to say yeah confidence is a lot higher in the forecast in hours 72 to 144 than in the 1st 72 hrs (last night was just an example of how difficult the first 3-6 hours can be).

Once the L/W trough moves through Wednesday we will actually move under more zonal flow thanks to another disturbance quickly on the heels of this one. By Wednesday afternoon it will already be moving east across the 4 corners and into the southern Plains early Thursday. This disturbance will quickly surge east-southeast through the Lower MS Valley Thursday night and off the east coast by Friday afternoon/evening. At the surface high pressure builds in slowly behind the front with a weak reinforcing cold front early Friday. Our front Wednesday won't bring much in the way of cold air but it will help to drop the dewpoint down a touch. The front Friday will bring more dry air and some slightly cooler air in time for the weekend.

Previous model solutions showed the possibility of rain late next weekend but latest shows the weekend remaining dry since we will never be able to recover. Models do start to diverge next weekend mainly timing and strength but they do show another strong disturbance digging into through the Plains this weekend and even with the differences in depth of how far the system digs they all still still show a drier scenario with possibly another reinforcing cold front late this weekend. /CAB/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Widespread MVFR cigs are currently impacting most terminals but the low clouds should begin to scatter out some this afternoon. That said terminals from BTR to NEW and southwest look like they will be dealing with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Terminals will likely move into VFR status are times this afternoon but expect MVFR and even IFR cigs this evening and overnight. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters through Monday night before becoming more southeasterly ahead of a cold front Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Winds will generally be around 10-15 knots however we can not rule out a few periods of winds around 15-20 knots especially in the open waters. Winds will briefly become offshore Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday before becoming more light and variable as high pressure builds in. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times over the coastal waters until after the front moves through. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ070- 076-078.

GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ086.

GM...None.