textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the area this morning. - Above normal temperatures will be in place again today. - No significant rainfall in the forecast until at least early next week.

- Critical Fire Weather concerns Saturday behind the cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Overall outside of some fog this morning which is still struggling to develop the only other forecast issue in the short term is the fire weather potential tomorrow. The rest is temperature forecast issue and maybe some isolated light showers or sprinkles Sunday. Currently seeing more stratus than fog again and this morning could play out quite similar to yesterday morning. The low stratus will continue to develop and spread across the region but areas that are able to remain clear of most of the stratus may should finally begin to see fog develop between 10 and 11z.

By mid morning fog should be gone and any lingering stratus will continue to light and burn off. By afternoon we will be warm and sunny. The ridge centered to our west will have its greatest impact on the area today with hghts slightly rising by late afternoon. By this evening a weak s/w will begin to drop down across the Lower MS Valley and whatever is left of it will just make it into the northeastern Gulf by late Saturday afternoon. Even though it will be weak and continuing to weaken it will help to breakdown the eastern periphery of the ridge over our area tomorrow. The ridge will then broaden out some and slide east- southeast into the Gulf by Sunday. This weak s/w will also help to drive the cold front through the CWA tonight. As we have been mentioning for a few days, behind this cold front we will be looking more at drier air and not necessarily colder air (but LL temps will drop about 4-5 degrees for at least a day). As for the drier air we will see dewpoints drop into the lower 30s (maybe even upper 20s) across southwest MS and into the mid 40s south of I-10 across SELA. Those h925 temps will fall to around 12-14C which should equate to highs in the lower to mid 70s for much of the area. Skies look to be clear and thus with the dry sunny conditions and highs in the 70s Saturday has all the earmarks of a Chamber of Commerce Day. In fact you probably couldn't ask for a nicer late March Saturday. However, there is one concern and that is the potential for Dangerous Fire Weather conditions. Models tend to underestimate how dry we get behind these early Spring cold fronts and because of that used a blend of NBM25 and NBM for dewpoints. A Fire Weather Watch is already issued for most areas along and north of the 10/12 corridor. For more detailed information on the potential fire weather concerns refer to the Fire Weather section below.

High pressure quickly builds into the region under mostly clear skies and dry conditions and this could lead to a decent radiational cooling night. This will be a quickly evolving setup and timing is everything but if high pressure can hold on long enough Saturday night and keep the area from moderating too quickly Sunday morning should be a fairly cool morning. We did use a blend of NBM25 and NBM for morning lows and right now the forecast lows are in the upper 40s to upper 50s but a slightly slower or even further south track of the surface high could even lead to cooler temps. As mentioned a few sentences ago this will be a evolving setup with moisture quickly returning Sunday and given the location of the mid lvl ridge and it being weaker there is a very small chance of some isolated light showers Sunday afternoon across the southern half of the CWA. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Upper pattern becoming more progressive, at least temporarily, with upper ridging currently over Mexico and west Texas expected to move eastward into the western Gulf by Sunday morning. The ridging then moves to south Florida by Monday night and the Bahamas by midweek next week. The GFS operational is a bit slower than the ECMWF by early next week, perhaps 12 hours or so. A strong upper trough will approach the West Coast at mid-week next week. This causes the upper flow across our area to become more zonal, or perhaps southwesterly, depending on one's choice of model solutions.

Any cooling/drying we see on Saturday will quickly moderate with winds returning to a southerly direction on Sunday. May be just enough moisture return to generate a few showers Sunday afternoon, but any deeper convection likely holds off until the afternoon hours each day from Monday onward. Convective temperatures look to be in the upper 70s for Monday and Tuesday, and in the lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Don't see any drought-busters through mid-week next week, but there's likely to be activity on radar each afternoon, likely diminishing around sunset. If there is a slightly more favored day for precipitation, it'd be Tuesday when the precipitable water values are a bit higher than the other days.

Sunday morning will be the one comparatively cool morning, but in reality, it'll be right around normal for late March. Otherwise, above normal temperatures are anticipated all week next week. Highs are likely to be upper 70s to mid 80s, with the coolest readings along the Mississippi coast, where a sea breeze will temper warming somewhat. Gulf water temperatures are in the lower 70s once one gets away from the Mississippi River water (still around 60F). Overnight lows beyond Sunday morning will be in the 60s, a good 10F above normal. Normals for early next week would have highs in the mid 70s and lows 50 to 55. /RW/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Beginning to see some impact's now as ASD has dropped into IFR status due to low cigs. This is going to expand through the overnight hours with most if not all terminals seeing IFR and even LIFR/VLIFR from either cigs, vsbys, or both. Fog will be a little more tricky similar situation as last night as with stratus quickly developing across the northern portions of the area and spreading out. HDC and MOB VWP both indicating 20 kt and HDC recently showing 25 kt and again that promotes more stratus than fog but like last night, where the stratus holds off the longer fog will likely develop and in that case it looks like the same general areas like the River and Bayou (HUM and BTR) and that could sneak into MSY and NEW. Fog would likely develop after 10/11z and should quickly start to mix out/burn off after 14z.

As for cigs, as the stratus spreads out multiple terminals will see at least IFR cigs with the likelihood of cigs dropping down to LIFR over a few terminals. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 150 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

High pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf and this will continue to lead to light to moderate onshore winds today. Still looks like the front will move into the coastal waters after The next front will move through the region late Friday night. Immediately behind the front northerly winds and seas will build to hazardous thresholds. A Small Craft Advisory is currently out for all coastal waters for Saturday. The strong winds will not last long as the pressure gradient quickly relaxes and we will see onshore return flow possibly as early as late Sunday morning. /CAB/

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Still looking at potential for critical fire weather conditions developing during a short window Saturday morning through the afternoon. As the cold front moves through this evening, much drier air will quickly filter in behind it along with moderate to strong northerly winds developing. Currently the forecast is advertising min RH values in the lower to mid 20 to near 30 percent range north of the 10/12 corridor. Guidance continues to trend drier as expected and still think that it is possibly not dry enough which is typical with early Spring cold fronts. As for winds, we are still looking at sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the morning and early afternoon hours before they quickly relax. Combine the low RH values and strong winds with the lack of rainfall and continued drought we are experiencing and the potential is there for dangerous fire weather conditions to develop. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the northern half of the area and will likely be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning later this morning after coordination with State and Federal Forestry Services. Luckily this is a small window as we will quickly start to recover on Sunday. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-076-079>086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.