textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through Saturday. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals.

- Most visibilities should remain greater than 1/4 mile, so a dense fog advisory is not expected. But, patchy dense fog could occur around sunrise this and friday morning especially around river systems.

- The next chance of measurable rainfall will occur along and a head of a cold frontal boundary late Saturday and into the day Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The CWFA will remain under a southwesterly flow aloft going into the upcoming weekend. Overall, mostly tranquil weather is anticipated through the end of the workweek. Only issue may be some morning fog across the interior sections of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. Otherwise, surface high pressure will remain in control. Aloft, heights will be somewhat high given the close proximity to the upper ridge over the eastern and central Gulf, which will mean well above average temps continue.

Going into the upcoming weekend eyes will shift upstream as a shortwave starts to amplify over the high plains. At the surface, a cold front will begin to move east as the trough spreads eastward. Overall the system appears to weaken as it moves into our region, but the globals have bumped up the QPF signal just a bit more with the recent cycles. Measurable rainfall is looking more and more likely across the area late Saturday and early Sunday, especially across southwest Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. The MS Gulf Coast is a bit more questionable as the rain chances drop the further east of the Pearl River you go.

Behind the front a dry and slightly cooler airmass settles in, which will help drop temperatures back to seasonal averages for mid to late April. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

As the new workweek starts there becomes some discrepancies in the medium range models. GFS is a bit more wet by Tuesday as an H5 trough spreads east over the region helping develop showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two. The ECMWF however, is dry with high pressure sitting over northern Mississippi, which eventually spreads east off the Carolina Coastline by Wednesday. Despite the discrepancy in POPs, surface flow will transition to a more onshore southerly flow, which will likely lead us into our next warming trend to close out the long term. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR with light southerly or southeasterly flow will continue through much of the cycle. That said, IFR conditions for inland terminals will be possible as VIS reductions develop around sunrise. Any reductions will likely clear by mid to late morning. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

There resides a surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic Ocean. This feature will continue to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the northern Gulf through Saturday. A cold front is expected to move through the northern gulf bringing northerly winds Sunday into early next week where hazardous marine conditions may develop leading to cautionary headlines or even Small Craft Advisories. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.