textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

- The main concern will be potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding - especially over the weekend as another cold front approaches and moves into the area.

- Residents should remain weather aware and pay attention to the forecast for updates and changes as the details of the heavy rain threat continue to be refined.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

An active weather pattern will persist through the weekend as multiple mid/upper level disturbances move through the Mississippi Valley. First disturbance is currently departing and its associated cold front is slowly sinking toward the coast. As the front loses its upper support, it will continue to slow and stall near the coast before washing out tonight into Friday morning.

The next disturbance will begin to eject out of northern Mexico late Friday in response to another shortwave diving southeastward through the Rockies. This should be enough to fire off scattered to locally numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms across the region Friday afternoon.

Friday night and Saturday look to be the wettest periods as the disturbance crosses the local area firing off numerous showers and embedded storms across the region. With PW values forecast to be around 2 inches, some storms will be capable of producing efficent rainfall. Wouldn't be surprised to see at least a few storms producing localized totals of 1-2" in a short-ish period of time. The high rainfall rates could lead to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas and/or isolated flash flooding. We continue to be outlooked with a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for Friday and Saturday, and if it looks like convection will become a bit more organized, the threat level could be bumped up to slight.

Yet another disturbance will move into/through the middle Mississippi Valley late Sunday/Sunday night. This one will force a cold front into and through the area with another round of showers and storms along/ahead of it.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The cold front should finally push into the northern Gulf Monday, marking a transition to a quieter weather pattern for at least the first half of next week as high pressure builds in and dominates the area. Expect to see near to slightly warmer than normal afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s with near to cooler than normal morning temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A persistent stratus deck will remain in place through the entire forecast period. This stratus deck will vary between IFR and MVFR conditions at all of the terminals with prevailing ceilings ranging from 800 to 2000 feet. MVFR ceilings of 1000 to 2000 feet will be more prevelant at the terminals between 00z and 08z. After 08z, the stratus deck will gradually lower with IFR ceilings of 500 to 1000 feet expected from 10z through 16 to 18z. As temperatures warm, the stratus deck will lift back to around 1500 to 2000 feet after 18z. Convective activity will also increase after 16z, and PROB30 wording is in place to add in a mention of scattered thunderstorm activity at all of the terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1054 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A weak frontal boundary will remain continue to wash out near the coast tonight. By Friday afternoon, south to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will return, and these winds will persist through the weekend. Another frontal boundary will move into the waters Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing offshore winds to the waters for early next week. Winds should remain below headline criteria through the period, with the greatest concern being scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Saturday through Sunday night.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.