textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Hot and dry at least through much of Tuesday. Highs in the mid 90s to near 100 with heat indicies 105-112. Heat headlines for Wednesday and Thursday will be contingent on the path of TD2.

- Tropical Depression 2 is forecast to move westward toward our general area through midweek. Impacts are still low confidence, but an increase in rainfall (mainly south of I-10) with breezy conditions along with potential coastal flooding are becoming more and more possible with time.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The local area remains on the northwest side of Tropical Depression Two over the northeastern Gulf and along the southeastern periphery of an upper ridge centered well to the northwest. Subsidence between these features, along with dry-air entrainment around the depression, has maintained mostly clear skies and little radar activity across the CWA. A few outer bands from TD2 could sneak in from the west later today, so carrying slight chance to chance POPs in far easter zones. Surface winds remain generally north to northwest at 5 to 10 mph which is actually aided in higher than normal temps as southerly winds increase moisture limits warming. That combo allows for temps to climb into the middle and upper 90s this afternoon. Those temperatures and the moisture rich boundary layer will produce heat index values generally from 105 to 112 degrees. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday, thus have issued a heat advisory for tomorrow as well.

TD2 is expected to gradually become Tropical Storm Bertha while moving slowly northwest today, then turn west-northwest as the ridge to its northwest becomes the dominant steering feature. The depressions broad circulation, mid level dry air, and limited organized convection should keep strengthening gradual. Northerly shear is forecast to increase Tuesday night and Wednesday, likely halting additional intensification and displacing the deeper convection and heaviest rainfall south of the circulation center.

On Tuesday, thin outer rainbands may begin reaching eastern portions of the CWA during the afternoon, although the more organized rainfall should remain over the coastal waters. The current forecast brings the circulation across the CWA, generally south of I10 Wednesday afternoon into the overnight period. The timing of TD2 is still such that still outside the window for TC watches but if any portion of the CWA gets one, it'll most likely be the southshore. For rain, as mentioned earlier, increasing northerly shear and continued dry-air entrainment are expected to maintain a pronounced southward displacement of the primary rain shield. The greatest rain coverage and locally heavy-rain potential should therefore remain over the Gulf or maybe the immediate southeastern Louisiana coastal Parishes as the storm passes through. Could even see a scenario where more of the CWA sees no rain than those that see 1 inch. The caveat is small changes in the track, shear orientation, or organization of the cyclone could still shift a heavier band inland.

Water levels will also need to be watched as the system approaches and local winds strengthen and change direction. A rise of roughly 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels appears possible in vulnerable coastal areas and around the tidal lakes, although the location and timing of the greatest rise will be highly dependent on the exact track.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The tropical system is forecast to continue west across southern Louisiana Thursday before moving toward southeast Texas. Lingering bands may continue to rotate across portions of the CWA, especially coastal Louisiana and areas west of I-55. POPs are generally in the 30 to 50 percent range, but coverage will be uneven and strongly tied to the placement of individual bands. Winds should also diminish from east to west as the circulation pulls away.

By Friday, the tropical system should be weakening to the west while the upper ridge centered to the northwest expands southeastward across the Gulf Coast. Increasing subsidence should reduce rain coverage, with only isolated to scattered afternoon convection expected Friday. Temperatures will respond by returning to the middle 90s across most inland areas, with lower 90s near the immediate coast. The ridge is forecast to remain the dominant feature through the weekend. It may not completely suppress the sea- breeze and outflow-driven convection typical of late July, so scattered afternoon storms remain reasonable Saturday and Sunday. Heat may again become a concern by next weekend. Current blended guidance supports highs in the middle 90s. Confidence is not yet high enough to determine whether heat headlines will be needed, as cloud cover, residual tropical moisture, and the strength and placement of the ridge remain uncertain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Isolated convection is expected to die out within the next hour or two, with VFR conditions expected to continue through the overnight hours. Redevelopment of scattered convection is anticipated around midday Tuesday to continue through the remainder of the afternoon hours. PROB30 will be used with MVFR impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

TD2 will be the primary marine concern through Thursday. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will continue today and tonight with seas 3- 5ft , although isolated showers and thunderstorms could produce locally higher winds and waves. Conditions will deteriorate from east to west Tuesday and Tuesday night as the TC begins moving west- northwest across the north-central Gulf. Winds should increase to 20 to 30 knots, with tropical-storm conditions becoming possible over the eastern waters Tuesday night and spreading across most marine zones Wednesday and Wednesday night. Tropical-storm conditions will be most likely near the circulation center and over the open Gulf waters. Seas should build to 5 to 10 feet across much of the open Gulf, with 10 to 15 feet possible near the track of the center. Conditions over the tidal lakes and protected waters will be lower than over the open Gulf but may still become quite rough, with strong gusts near the circulation and within rainbands. The system should move west of the area Thursday, allowing winds and seas to diminish considerably from east to west during the afternoon and evening. By Friday and through the weekend, winds should generally return to 5 to 10 knots with seas subsiding to around 1 to 3 feet.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Tropical Storm Watch for LAZ070-076-078-091.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

Storm Surge Watch for LAZ070-076-078-091.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ532-534>536-554-557-575-577.

MS...Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ086>088.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Storm Surge Watch for MSZ086>088.

GM...Tropical Storm Watch for GMZ534>536-554-557-575-577.