textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Low confidence in addition isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this evening. If storms do develop locally heavy rainfall and perhaps a strong wind gust or two will be possible.

- Higher confidence in showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday evening with flooding and a few strong to severe storms possible.

- Finally start to dry out after Monday night as ridging builds into the area. Expect temperatures to increase again by mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Complicated forecast for the first 48 hours. We continue to monitor convection upstream moving through OK and into northeast TX. This activity may hold together and move into the region late this morning/midday however it is looking more and more likely to dissipate with a remnant outflow boundary drifting across northwestern/northern LA. This activity is already approaching the theta E ridge which is draped SW-NE across northeast TX and into southwestern AR. Once it crosses that ridge we should begin to see a steady decline in intensity. In addition the convection is already outrunning the LL convergence which should also aid in that dissipation. With that there will be an old outflow boundary sliding southeast through the morning and midday hours and that will become the catalyst for afternoon storms. In this case with it would allow the area to us to heat up and become quite unstable. The boundary would be the forcing to get storms to develop just off to our northwest but that is still not a certainty as we could be between subtle impulses and it is because of that, that the still developing complex over northeast TX may actually persist. However, if it dissipates and we get another round of convection midday/early afternoon to our northwest it will likely begin to cold pool and accelerate southeast into the CWA this afternoon. For some reason many of the CAMs start to develop this midday/early afternoon but then dissipate the convection during the peak heating which is a little odd. Like the previous forecaster mentioned I also have some questions about that actually happening. In fact I would almost question the current developing MCS (especially since there has been a noticeable uptick in intensity over the last hour in northeast TX) to quickly dissipate however with the overall lack of LL convergence, rather well defined LL theta E ridge in place, and a mostly stable environment over central and southeast LA I do feel a little more confident that this current developing MCS will dissipate and thus leave that remnant boundary in place to our northwest. CAMs notoriously struggle with these features so that is why confidence is low however, we do feel like there will be some convection around this afternoon, whether it is scattered storms or a more defined complex is the question.

As for tonight, confidence is a little higher in another MCS developing upstream and this one would move into the area overnight. This will be associated with a much more defined s/w which has been advertised multiple times for the last 5 days. This much stronger s/w is moving through the 4 corners right now and will move into the southern Plains this evening. It will lead to a potent MCS developing over central and northern TX and with a rather unstable environment ahead this MCS will likely surge to the southeast. The biggest question is will it actually surge into our area overnight. Looking a little closer, the pattern we will be in and where the MCS develops suggest that as this complex begins to race out it may actually surge to the south or south- southeast and thus would remain west and southwest of the area. These system typically surge towards the higher instability overnight and very early in the morning. This could be just to our west and southwest and looking a little closer what may happen is the MCS would surge towards the far northwest Gulf and towards the upper TX coast and swLA coast but as it move into the Gulf it would begin to turn more easterly following the better LL convergence and instability access along the coast. One other key determining factor will be time of the day and how fast it can move. If it it takes that track that is more west of us but is only approaching the coast just before or even around sunrise. As it starts to turn more easterly it will either begin to drift back inland or aid in scattered convection developing across SELA Monday morning as we start to destabilize.

So overall even though confidence in on the lower side with respect to timing, track, and exact location, it is on the higher side that we will see more convection over the next 36 hours. In addition it is highly likely that we will see additional strong to a few severe storms along with locally heavy rain. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

The trough axis should finally push through the area late Monday/Monday night and this will finally allow the area to dry out as we move into the middle of the work week. /CAB/

Strong deep layer ridging will be in firm control of the forecast area through the entire long term period. This deep layer ridging will keep a highly subsident and very dry and stable airmass in place through the period. Warming aloft associated with the subsidence will induce a strong mid-level capping inversion, and this will effectively limit cloud development to nothing more than some fair weather cumulus each afternoon. In the low levels, an onshore flow will be in place, and this will allow dewpoints to gradually increase through the week. As a result, despite the very dry air in place aloft, conditions will turn increasingly warm and muggy as we move toward Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s each afternoon and max heat index values will peak near 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Given the early time period for this heat, there is a minor to moderate heat risk for portions of the area on Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will provide some relief as clear skies allow for decent radiational cooling each night. Lows will be coolest on Tuesday night due to limited moisture return with values dipping into the mid to upper 50s inland the low to mid 60s along the coast. As dewpoints climb into the low 60s on Wednesday, overnight lows will also warm into the low to mid 60s over inland areas the upper 60s along the coast each night through the end of the week. Light winds and saturated soils will also be conducive to patchy fog development each night during the workweek, especially over more inland areas. /PG/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions have broken out across the region this afternoon. There remains the possibility for a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for terminals along and south of I10/12. Used TEMPOS and PROBs respectively. Otherwise, outside of convection, winds will remain light and variable. Tonight, more low stratus or fog will develop limiting VIS and CIGs to IFR or perhaps lower in some cases with CIGs dropping to just off the deck. This will improve on Monday before another complex of showers and storms develops or moves into the region. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

South to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist through tonight. Anticipating at least one to two more rounds of storms through Monday some strong to severe storms across marine waters. Main threats will be wind gust greater than 34 knots and waterspouts. A frontal boundary will move into the waters tonight into Monday, bringing offshore winds and drying out conditions through the end of the upcoming week. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.