textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday before moderating at midweek. A second cold front will bring another round of cool and dry conditions to the area toward the end of the work week and into the weekend.

- Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through Tuesday. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Split upper flow continues this evening. Northern stream shortwaves were near New York City and entering northwest Minnesota. A deeper northern stream trough off the Washington coast is moving toward ridging over the northern Rockies. The southern stream shortwave that was near Las Vegas last night is now over northern Mexico to the south of the Arizona-New Mexico border. Under mostly clear skies tonight, there's a wide range of temperatures at 11 PM CST, from 43 at Pascagoula to 64 in New Orleans.

Surface high pressure near the Missouri-Arkansas border this evening will drift slowly southward toward the northern Gulf Coast through the first half of the week. The southern stream shortwave will move across the local area Tuesday night or Wednesday. Precipitable water values struggle to get above 1 inch (right at the daily mean), and low level RH values don't get much higher than 50 percent. I suppose we could get some very light precipitation out of a mid level cloud deck as the shortwave moves across the area, but it's not going to amount to much, and for now, the forecast will remain dry.

Most high temperatures should be in the 70s through Wednesday, but won't be surprised if a few spots make it to 80 or 81 if cloud cover is limited. Overnight lows should be in the 40s to around 50, with the exception being the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain, where warmer water nearby will probably hold lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Medium range models trending into decent agreement in carving out a pretty deep trough over the Great Lakes, upper Ohio River Valley and eastern third of the country for the second half of the workweek. The lead northern stream shortwave will impact the local area Wednesday night or Thursday morning. If any significant rain was going to occur over the next week or two, that appears to be the only real opportunity, and probably just near the coast. The GFS has been more bullish on precipitation, with the ECMWF operational dry. Currently, the NBM PoP numbers are tracking with the ECMWF solution...no rain. The front associated with the shortwave will definitely bring cooler and dry air into the area for Friday and Saturday.

Highs Friday and Saturday are expected to top out in the 60s, and some guidance isn't even that warm in southwest Mississippi. With dew points forecast to drop into the 30s Friday and Saturday, that brings at least some potential for patchy frost in normally colder locations like the Pearl and Pascagoula River basins on Saturday morning if winds decouple. That looks to be the coldest night with lows in the 30s across the north half of the area. There's at least a limited chance that some well sheltered locations could get pretty close to freezing. Friday and Sunday mornings are a few degrees warmer than Saturday morning. Temperatures look like they'll rebound to above normal by day 8/9 (Sunday or Monday).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period at all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Will hold onto the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over the far western waters until 18z Sunday, before they relax sufficiently. After that point, winds are expected to remain below 15 knots through the first half of the workweek. The expected passage of a strong cold front on Thursday is expected to bring at least Small Craft Advisory level conditions to most of the waters from Thursday night into Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1119 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Fire weather concerns will continue through at least Tuesday across the northern half of the area. Relative humidities are likely to drop below 30 percent each afternoon through Tuesday before moderating Wednesday. Undercut the NBM deterministic daytime dew points through Tuesday using a blend of NBM25/CONSALL. Even that may not be low enough, as the 07/18z run MAV daytime dew points are several degrees lower than the blend I used, and even lower than NBM10. The one concern with RH values, is that there is the potential for a fair amount of mid and high cloud cover late Monday into Tuesday, which could limit somewhat how warm it gets, which would also impact relative humidity values.

Burn bans remain in effect across much of the northern half of the area. Outdoor burning in those areas should be postponed until moisture levels improve enough for officials to cancel burn bans.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.