textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1125 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through at least Thursday. The ongoing drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and light to moderate winds will lead to potential for some fire spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Although winds will ease today, wind speeds are expected rise once again over most of the coastal waters later today into Thursday causing additional small craft advisories possibly by Thursday. - Minor coastal flooding is likely along the Mississippi gulf coast tonight. A coastal flood advisory is now in effect for Hancock County, but the advisory may be extended to include other counties/parishes over the next few nights.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

We will continue with the dry but very comfortable conditions through at least Thursday, but there are some changes coming to this pattern. 24N 131W is the tip of an upper H3 jet that will be coming into the Baha within the next 36 hours. The strong upper level winds alread coming around the base of an upper trough that is being carved out is shearing the tops off Tropical Storm Vance near Mexico this morning. Eventually, as this jet rounds this base, the moisture from Vance will get brought NE with it. This does not move into our area but instead gets wrapped up with a low in the interior. But it does help deepen the system enough to draw a good moisture feed from the gulf. The next item is a sfc circulation found at 23.5N 79.10W. This feature has a broad circulation and low pressure field with it which is interacting with the strong high pressure along the Atlantic coast riding back into the north central gulf to produce our NE winds for days now. This broad low will move west today and one of the deeper moisture arms of this currently moving over the east coast of FL this morning, will also move west around the ridge until it feels the synoptic low developing over TX in the next few days. This moisture will then begin to pivot and move NW as it fills along the new frontal axis developing over TX as the sfc low moves NE into Oklahoma/Arkansas by Fri. This will be the onset of deeper mositure for us as well with cloudy skies deepening with time and some rain with a few storms developing by Saturday. This frontal axis is acting like a warm front for our area as winds will from easterly to SE and dew pt temps surge. At the moment, none of this looks severe, but models won't agree until we sample the jet Thur morning or later.

The winds shifting to east then SE over the next few days will also cause king tide levels to bring about some minor coastal flooding. This will be more of a nuisance than anything and most of the highest tide levels will be overnight. We will start with bringing Hancock Co into a coastal flood advisory for tonight around midnight/1am but will likely bring other counties/parishes into this advisory as time moves forward. The thinking is levels less than a foot over normally dry ground.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Going into Sunday much of the rainfall should be moving downstream as the H5 shortwave continues north and eastward toward the Carolinas. Briefly dry northwest flow sets up over the region during the day Monday, which should signal a bit drier. From this point on eyes shift to the north and west were a much stronger upper level system and a rather robust surface low develops over the high plains Monday night and Tuesday. Globals have the feature but the eventual movement/advancement is still a bit uncertain. The GFS has the cold front moving through Tuesday afternoon. Also interesting to point out is the GFS is still trying to decide on what amount of QPF will be associated with the front. The ECMWF is not nearly as progressive as it drops the somewhat weaker H5 trough southward limiting the forward speed/progression of the frontal boundary, but appears to have more moisture with a much stronger onshore flow ahead of the system. So, for now we will continue lower to mid POPs given these differences. There is confidence that early to mid week a robust system develops and will move a frontal boundary through, but again timing and QPF are going to be a bit tricky.

Temperatures through the long term both overnight lows and daily highs will remain about 5 degrees or so above average for this time of year, especially with onshore flow helping for a warm/moist airmass to spread into the region ahead of the front. Though, there will some temperature uncertainty, again, because of differences in frontal passage timing. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR through this cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A strong surface high will remain centered over the Mid- Atlantic region today. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will persist near Florida. This will maintain a tighter pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with northeasterly winds remaining elevated at around 15 knots across most of the coastal waters today and tomorrow. Periods of small craft advisory headlines will likely be needed on Thursday and Friday as easterly winds increase back to 20 to 25 knots and seas of rise above 7 feet.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 4 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ086.

GM...None.