textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Dangerous heat remains the primary concern this afternoon and again Wednesday. Peak heat index values of 110 to 115 degrees remain possible, with limited overnight relief in the more urban and coastal areas.

- A considerably wetter and somewhat cooler pattern is expected Friday through at least Monday. Repeated thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall, especially where convection trains along the front or where multiple outflow boundaries intersect.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A strong mid-level ridge centered over the southern Plains will remain the dominant feature through Wednesday, with the local area positioned beneath its eastern flank. Subsidence, warm temperatures aloft, and weak forcing will keep convection isolated today, mainly near coastal Mississippi where a weak boundary and localized sea-breeze convergence may provide enough lift.

Dangerous heat remains the primary concern. Afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will produce heat indices near 110 to 115 degrees in some locations. Any isolated storm could briefly produce gusty winds and heavy rain, but organized severe weather is not expected.

The ridge will gradually retreat west Wednesday as an eastern CONUS trough deepens. A weak front will approach southern Mississippi, allowing scattered convection to develop across coastal Mississippi and possibly the eastern Northshore. Most of southeastern Louisiana will remain hot and mainly dry, with another day of dangerous heat likely.

The pattern begins changing more noticeably Thursday as the front settles toward the northern Gulf Coast and deeper moisture spreads west. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected, especially along the front, sea breeze, and remnant outflow boundaries. Weak steering flow and precipitable water values near 2 inches will support slow-moving storms with locally heavy rainfall and isolated strong wind gusts.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

A broad eastern CONUS trough and stalled frontal boundary will support a wetter and somewhat cooler pattern Friday through the weekend. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day, with the greatest coverage likely Saturday and Sunday as an upper-level disturbance moves through northwest flow.

High moisture content and slow storm motions will favor efficient rainfall. Average totals of 2 to 3 inches are possible through Monday, with locally higher amounts where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Localized street and poor-drainage flooding will be the primary concern.

Northwest flow may also allow one or more organized convective clusters to move south from Mississippi or Arkansas. Confidence in exact timing is low, but any stronger complex could produce localized damaging winds and a concentrated corridor of heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will be lower than earlier in the week due to increased clouds and convection, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Rain chances may gradually return to a more typical diurnal pattern early next week as the front weakens.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period, with west to northwest winds around 5 to 10 knots this afternoon becoming light overnight. Thunderstorm coverage will remain limited, with the greatest chance near KGPT and KASD, but any storm could briefly produce IFR visibility, strong wind gusts, and rapid wind shifts. Thunderstorm chances and brief periods of MVFR or IFR conditions will increase Thursday through the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Weak high pressure over the north-central Gulf will maintain west to southwest winds generally between 5 and 15 knots through midweek, with brief increases to around 15 to 20 knots possible over the eastern waters during the evening and overnight periods. Seas should remain around 1 to 3 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet offshore. Thunderstorm coverage will increase Thursday through the weekend as a weak front settles toward the coast, with storms capable of frequent lightning, visibility below 1 mile, abrupt wind shifts, and gusts of 30 to 40 knots or greater.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056-071-091-093>097.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056-071-090>097.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ057-058- 064-070-076>087-089-090-092-098>100.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ057- 058-064-070-076>087-089-098>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>085.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>085.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.