textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- River flooding in Pearl River Co and MS Coastal Basins will continue as water continues to drain from yesterday's heavy rainfall.

- Drier pattern through this weekend with increased rain chances returning middle of next week.

- Summertime temps coming with highs around 90 degrees and heat indicies near 100.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A broad area of deep layer ridging will remain in full control of the Gulf South through Tuesday. This deep layer ridging will help to reduce rain chances and overall cloud development through Tuesday and push our temperatures higher than average into the lower 90s. Low level humidity will remain high with readings near 70 degrees, and this will help to push heat index readings into the 100 to 105 degree range on Sunday through Tuesday. Although these values are below our heat advisory criteria, this early season heat could catch people off guard. HeatRisk reflects this with most of the area in a moderate HeatRisk category, but a few locations could push into major HeatRisk category. What this means is that the threat of heat related illness could expand beyond the more vulnerable populations to heat into the broader population. Anyone planning to be outside this weekend should take frequent breaks in a air conditioned or shaded place and drink plenty of water.

Beyond the hot weather, near average precipitable water values and ample instability as noted by MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 feet will support scattered diurnally induced convective activity each afternoon. PoP will peak out each afternoon in the 30 to 50 percent range and will quickly drop off shortly after sunset as temperatures and overall instability wanes. Conditions do not look favorable for microburst development today and tomorrow, but somewhat drier air in the mid-levels moving in for Monday and Tuesday will support a higher wet microburst potential on these days. This is supported by DCAPE values increasing to around 1000 J/KG on these days. Most of the activity will remain below severe limits, but the deepest updrafts could produce some isolated damaging wind events on Monday and Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A weak backdoor front will slide through Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong upper level trough descends into the eastern seaboard. This front will sweep offshore and a much drier airmass will feed into the region for Wednesday. PWATS will fall well below average to around one inch and this will effectively limit most convective potential for Wednesday. At most, a very isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop along the coast, but overall dry conditions are anticipated. Some weak cold air advection will also take hold and this will help temperatures cool back to average in the mid to upper 80s and heat index values to fall back into the lower 90s. Thursday will be a transitional day with PWATS gradually increasing, but overall convective coverage will remain limited as return flow gradually reestablishes itself. A bit better isolated to very widely scattered convective activity will occur Thursday afternoon, late in the day, when temperatures reach their peak. Any convection will need to develop on a low level boundary like the seabreeze to overcome the strong 850mb capping inversion in place.

As we move into Friday and beyond into next weekend, model differences begin to grow in relation to a developing low over the southwestern Gulf. Given these model differences and low forecast confidence, the deterministic NBM output will be used for our day 7 forecast. This will result in a return to a more typical Summer pattern with near average PWATS and diurnally induced scattered afternoon PoP of 30 to 50 percent. Severe weather will be limited, but locally heavy downpours can be expected as moisture increases. Temperatures will remain near average, and overall a very typical early June day is expected across the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A much drier and more stable area of high pressure will continue to build over the area today. This will keep prevailing VFR conditions in place through the evening hours. There will be some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity that develops this afternoon, but the probabilities are too low to mention in the forecast. Toward the end of the forecast period, weak boundary layer decoupling could allow for some light fog development at MCB after 09z, but only MVFR restrictions are anticipated.

MARINE

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A broad area of high pressure centered over the northern Gulf will keep a persistent light onshore flow of 5 to 10 knots in place through Tuesday. These light winds will allow seas to remain calm at 2 feet or less through Tuesday. A weak front will slip through the waters Tuesday night, and this will allow winds to turn offshore at 5 to 10 knots for a brief period. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will turn back to the southeast as a broad area of low pressure begins to form over the central Gulf. This low will continue to move toward the area on Thursday and winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots from the southeast as the low strengthens. Seas will also increase to 2 to 4 feet as these winds develop.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.