textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- During the latter part of this week, a period of more active weather appears likely. While there is still significant uncertainty regarding the specifics, heavy rain could become a concern mainly Friday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Generally drier the next few days as high pressure slides to the west. Rain chances will be low through Wednesday with an isolated chance of an afternoon popup shower. Southerly surface winds will return by Wednesday and onward, which will help advect warm and moist air back into the region, especially advecting the deep tropical moisture pattern in place from the Gulf. So humidities and PWs will start to increase Wednesday. Temperatures should remain bearable with highs in the low 90s to upper 80s and heat index values in the mid 90s. MSW

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Rain chances increase Thursday through the weekend with extra moisture moving into the area though the amounts and timing are still extremely uncertain due to the complex upper level pattern. Southerly surface winds will help to advect more Gulf moisture and warm air into the region Thursday through the weekend. PWs will be increasing Thursday through the weekend as well around 2+ inches, so rainfall should be quite efficient where it forms with 2-3 inches per hour rainfall rates. Generally, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected mainly Friday through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a concern if the trend holds through the week, especially for Saturday and Sunday. We are currently not seeing indications of severe weather potential, but strong storms will definitely be possible.

There is still a huge lack of model consensus regarding the weekend forecast and even between model runs. This will be highly dependent on the speed and placement of the trough as it develops this week and interacts with other features. Whereas yesterday, the bulk of the rainfall was converging over our area with deep tropical moisture in place, now the bulk of the rainfall is moreso to our east and along our easternmost areas. The trends in models have been pushing the bulk moisture and rainfall axis back temporally each day, which is why Saturday and Sunday now have the highest rainfall totals in the forecast, and more to the east spatially as stated previously. Obviously where the axis and best moisture sets up will determine the rainfall we end up seeing. Trends have been showing us on the western side of axis of moisture, which would result in lower rain chances for our western areas. But a lot remains uncertain and will stay uncertain until the upper level pattern starts to resolve in the models Wednesday. We will be monitoring closely for changes this week. MSW

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1120 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Winds over all coastal waters will remain light and sometimes variable through today. Winds will become predominantly SE by Tuesday at around 10 knots then rise further into mid next week to around 15 to 20 knots as a cold front approaches the coast.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.