textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 633 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Strong winds will produce hazardous boating conditions over the waters tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

- Next potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall will be with a frontal passage Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A very dry and stable airmass associated with a building low to mid-level ridge and deep layer northerly flow will continue to advect into the region tonight. This dry and stable airmass will then remain in place over the area through Monday night. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and low humidity will be the rule. Temperatures will also remain cooler than average with highs gradually warming from the upper 60s and lower 70s this afternoon into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Monday afternoon. The dry air will also support a fairly large diurnal range of 25 to 30 degrees with overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s tonight and the low to mid 50s tomorrow night. Some moisture return on the back of a developing southerly flow Monday night will help keep temperatures a bit warmer in the mid to upper 50s over inland areas the low 60s along the coast. Overall, a very pleasant stretch of weather is anticipated through the short term period.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The beginning and the end of the long term period will be rather benign with dry mid-level air and a related strong capping inversion in place to limit convective potential on Tuesday and Friday. Temperatures will be near average in the upper 70s and lower 80s each of these days with no more than some fair weather cumulus in the sky during the afternoon hours.

The middle of the period will where all of the action takes place as a northern stream trough axis and associated jet streak passes through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Both the GFS and the ECMWF models indicate that the region will be in the favored right entrance region of the jet, so there will be ample deep layer forcing to work with. However, there are some timing and spatial differences between the models that results in some differences on when convective impacts will be most likely to occur. The ECMWF has a more progressive system and a much stronger cold front sweeping through the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night with clearing and drier weather anticipated by Thursday. Conversely, the GFS indicates a slower trough passage and a significantly weaker front that effectively stalls over the region on Thursday and Friday. This results in the main convective threat shifting to more of a late Wednesday night into Thursday event. Given these 12 to 18 hour timing differences in the passage of the trough and front and the strength differences of the front, the NBM guidance maintains fairly high PoP values through Thursday night. Thus, there is low confidence on exactly when the greatest risk of thunderstorm activity will occur later this week.

The one area of confidence that has not shifted significantly, is that the overall synoptic level setup is perfect for severe thunderstorms to impact the region. A 35 to 45 knot 850mb low level jet will develop over the area at the same time as the upper level jet streak and approaching trough axis swing into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will result in very strong updraft tilting and rotation as evidenced by both 50 to 60 knots of 0-3km speed shear and storm relative helicity peaking at between 150 and 200 m2/s2. Ample instability will also be in place as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday afternoon and remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s Wednesday night. MLCAPE values will surge to around 1500 J/KG during the day and MUCAPE values will also be around 1500 J/KG at night. The one limiting factor will be slightly weaker mid-level lapse rates of around 6.0 C/km, but this will still be sufficient enough to support robust updraft development. Exact convective mode is a bit too early to pin down, but strong damaging winds, hail, and tornadic development are all in the cards with this event. We will continue to monitor the trends and firm up the timing with subsequent forecast updates.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

No concerns on the aviation home front. VFR conditions will persist through the forecast. The breezy winds still impacting the region will quickly subside as the sun goes down with winds decoupling overnight and remaining light all day tomorrow. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Strong northeast winds of 20 to 25 knots will persist through tonight as a cool and dry high pressure system builds in from the north. Due to these winds and the hazardous seas they create, a small craft advisory remains in effect through tonight. The winds will begin to diminish tomorrow as the high becomes more centered over the area with winds falling below 10 knots by the late afternoon hours. These light winds will allow seas to fall back below 3 feet by Monday. As the high begins to pull further to the east on Tuesday, winds will turn southerly at around 10 knots. These southerly winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots on Wednesday as a low pressure system passes to the north of the area. A weak front will then slip through Wednesday night allowing winds to shift to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots for Thursday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ529-531>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ531>536-541- 543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.