textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 519 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

1. Extreme cold temperatures and wind chills are expected tonight into Monday morning and Monday night into Tuesday morning, with widespread freezing conditions again Wednesday morning. Take action to protect the 4 Ps: People, Pets, Pipes, and Plants. Also keep in mind that home fires are most likely during the winter months due to increased use of fireplaces and portable heaters. Follow all recommended safety precautions when heating your home during this cold snap.

2. Strong winds and rough seas will lead to hazardous conditions across the coastal waters through Monday with the strongest winds tonight. Inexperienced mariners and those operating small craft should avoid navigating until conditions improve.

3. Another strong cold front will pass through the area Friday into Saturday. The main threats from this system will be potential for another round of hard freeze conditions and another period of hazardous conditions across the coastal waters. The exact threats will continue to be refined in the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Temperatures have been plummeting over the last several hours and are mostly running in mid 20s to mid 30s, with wind chills generally in the 20s area-wide. Strong cold air advection will persist through the night, leading to dangerous temperatures and wind chills by morning, and an extreme cold warning remains in effect area-wide.

Monday will start out utterly frigid - with morning temperatures generally bottoming out at 20-25 degrees for most places, and some teens possible across far northern areas. Across the New Orleans metro and extreme SE LA, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, bottoming out in the mid to upper 20s most places. These temperatures would be bad enough without wind, but when combined with wins of 10-15 mph, wind chills are forecast in the teens and potentially single digits some places. Those with a need to be outdoors in the morning should dress warmly, wearing several layers, and being sure to minimize exposed skin by also wearing gloves, scarves, and hats.

Skies will gradually clear through the morning but even with full sun by afternoon, it will be a cold day. Afternoon highs will struggle to rise above 40 degrees most places, and will only be above freezing for a few hours in some northwestern areas.

As the cold high pressure becomes more centered over the area, expect temperatures to plummet again after sunset. The combination of light winds, clear skies, and low dewpoints will allow for efficient radiative cooling. With temperatures starting out cold to begin with, temperatures will be below freezing again area-wide by 7-8PM. Temperatures will continue to fall through the night and are forecast to bottom out in the 15-20 degree range for areas along/north of the I-10/12 corridor, in the low to mid 20s through the river/bayou parishes and in the mid to upper 20s for the New Orleans metro and extreme southeastern Louisiana. The extreme cold warning will remain in effect through midday Tuesday due to these temperatures.

Temperatures will begin to moderate on Tuesday, but will remain well below normal, topping out in the mid to upper 40s most places with another cold night Tuesday night. Based on the current forecast, overnight lows will flirt with cold weather advisory criteria across northern areas, and another freeze warning may be needed for southern areas - where freeze warnings are issued for every freeze.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Colder than normal conditions will persist through the longer term forecast as a progressive pattern continues to result in multiple fast-moving upper level disturbances moving through the overall troughing that dominates the eastern CONUS.

The first of these fast-moving disturbances will move past the local area Wednesday, forcing a weak reinforcing cold front through the Gulf south. This will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal both Wednesday and Thursday. Expect highs around 50 on Wednesday, followed by lows near or below freezing for most of the area Wednesday night, with highs in the low to mid 50s Thursday.

The next shortwave/disturbance will push through the region Friday into Saturday. This one should prompt the development of a surface low over the Gulf. While there continue to be some differences in the specific track of this surface low between the different models and ensemble members, most agree that the bulk of the associated moisture and precipitation will remain shunted southward over the Gulf. However, based on the latest guidance spread, there could be a period of a light wintry mix across northern areas Friday evening into Friday night. Confidence in any one solution regarding this system is fairly low given the lead time at this point, so will stick with the NBM solution, which does not have any measurable precip coinciding with temperatures below freezing. However, even IF any freezing rain does fall, it should quickly melt Saturday as temperatures rise above freezing and into the 40s.

Once any light precip moves out, the focus will turn to temperatures as the current guidance suggests we'll once again be looking at potential for a widespread hard freeze across roughly the northern half of the area and a freeze for the southern half. The exact temperatures will continue to be refined in the coming days. However, feel it's prudent to mention that even with a nearly 20-degree spread between the NBM 10th and 90th percentile temperatures for the forecast lows Saturday and Sunday, the 90th percentile forecast lows are near or below freezing for most sites along/north of the I-10/12 corridor. Brrrrr.

The bottom line: we'll need to continue monitoring the trends regarding this system and it's potential impacts.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

MVFR CIGs across the region will improve later this morning to VFR clear skies from west to east. Northwest winds will remain elevated and a bit on the gusty side, especially for NEW and MSY. Winds toward the end of the cycle should subside generally less than 10 knots for most terminals as the cycle wraps. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Hazardous conditions will persist across the coastal waters through at least Tuesday evening as a tight pressure gradient results in strong winds and rough seas. As high pressure becomes more centered over the area, conditions will improve midweek, but the reprieve will only last a few days as the pressure gradient tightens again late Friday into the weekend in response to low pressure moving through the Gulf.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572- 575-577.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577.