textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Front is stalling across the immediate coast of Louisiana leading to rain sticking around this afternoon for the southwest half/third of the area. Tropical moisture surges back into the region toward the weekend with localized flooding possible in the more vulnerable areas.

- Behind the front, winds will quickly veer around to the east and increase in speed. Winds of 20 to 30 knots across all waters will develop later today and persist through Friday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through the remainder of the workweek.

- Strong easterly winds and spring tides are expected to lead to minor coastal flooding for portions of coastal MS and east facing shores of SELA east of the MS River. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for through Thursday and may need to be extended into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The weak cold front is still positioned along the LA Coastline this afternoon. Along the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed, mainly over southeast Louisiana. Through the first day or two in the short term this will generally be the rule with showers and storms struggling a bit to form over the northeastern half of the CWFA closer to the H5 ridge over the Sequatchie/Tennessee River Valley and a bit drier airmass over these areas. However, since the front is stalling over our region, the southwest portion of the CWFA has a completely different story with continued periods of showers and storms where moisture is deeper and the surface trigger (the front) still remains.

Surface pressure gradient will tighten a good bit as surface high pressure develops over the southern Appalachians and lower pressures reside in the Gulf. Surface winds, especially closer to the Gulf will become gusty with a few gusts approaching 30 knots at times Thursday afternoon. With the low level flow and fetch increasing, water will begin to pile up on eastern facing shores. Continued the Coastal Flood Advisory with times of high tide most likely to experience coastal flood issues. This will likely persist through Friday as the moderate fetch persists.

As mentioned there are lower pressures over the Gulf with an inverted surface trough developing over the central Gulf waters later this week. As this occurs, the surface front will become rather diffuse and weak. The flow begins to shift to a stronger onshore flow allowing tropical moisture to surge into the region. Because of this surge as well as more low level convergence, POPs are trending higher later into the week and especially into Friday and Saturday. At this juncture, it looks like convection will be periodic. Because there will be a few breaks, QPF of 1-2" on average can be anticipated across the board. However, it's never that easy on the Gulf Coast. Locally higher amounts will be possible, especially if some lucky folks catch multiple rounds. So, unfortunately it goes without saying that localized hydro concerns will be likely in those more vulnerable locations. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Surface flow begins to decrease just a bit going into Sunday as pressure gradient is reduced. However, the southerly onshore flow will likely persist...just again weaker. Aloft, there is an H5 ridge developing albeit modest in the northern Gulf late Monday and into Tuesday. This will have a slight impact on POPs (lower POPs), but only in terms of lower coverage of diurnally driven convection during the afternoon/peak heating hours early to mid week next week. As one would expect with slightly lower POPs and higher heights, temperatures will again move closer to the lower 90s going into the new workweek. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Convection will soon be impacting MSY over the next hour or two with gusty winds and lower VIS/CIG. Otherwise, BTR will see development over showers and storms shortly west of the I55 corridor. GPT, MCB, and ASD have the least potential for afternoon showers and storms today. Otherwise, tonight CIGs will likely remain MVFR before improving Thursday morning. Stronger easterly winds are forecast to develop for most with some gusts approaching 30 knots at times tomorrow afternoon. LLWS signal also appears for the MCB terminal overnight tonight. Once again on Thursday, convection will be possible, but focused mainly over the MSY, BTR, and HUM sites. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 148 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Winds and seas will be increasing and remain hazardous through the remainder of the workweek. Small Craft Advisories remain in place for local waters through at least Friday. Going into this weekend some improvement takes place, but winds and seas will remain moderate. Outside of the gusty winds anticipated through the workweek, locally higher winds and seas will be possible in or around convection that develops. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078- 091.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ093-095-097.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ529-531-532- 534>536-554-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ533-541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ531-532- 534>536-554-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.