textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 608 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Light to moderate rain will affect the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

- Another round of rain will move in on Saturday. Saturday night, temperatures may fall low enough to change the rain over to freezing rain across portions of southwest Mississippi. Confidence in the freezing rain occurring is low, so check for further updates as the week progresses.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1208 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Through tomorrow night, things will remain very benign across the area as a deep layer west-northwest flow pattern remains in place on the southwest periphery of a strong longwave trough dominating the eastern third of the CONUS. Embedded within this flow pattern, a reinforcing frontal boundary will slip through the area tonight. This will keep temperatures cooler than average as colder air continues to advect in from the northwest, but temperatures will not be as cool as they were last night when areas southwest of Lake Pontchartrain dipped below freezing for a few hours. Still, another light freeze will take place for areas along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. Further to south, frost will form across the River and Bayou Parishes as temperatures dip into the mid 30s. Temperatures will recover into the upper 50s and lower 60s tomorrow, or just slightly below average as some high level cloud cover starts to stream in from the west. Tuesday night will continue to see temperatures modify as winds turn more easterly and dewpoints gradually rise. Lows will be a good 10 degrees warmer with readings much closer to average for this time of year ranging from the upper 30s inland to the upper 40s along the Louisiana coast. A fairly thick high level cirrus deck will also help to limit the amount of cooling Tuesday night as Pacific based moisture feeds into the region on the back of a strengthening jet.

Wednesday into Wednesday night will see a favorable upper level jet couplet pattern and related shortwave trough axis pass directly over the Lower Mississippi Valley. As this couplet moves through, upper level forcing will increase greatly. This forcing will tap into an increasingly more humid airmass as the low to mid- level winds shift to an onshore component. PWATS will rise to over an inch, and this will be enough moisture to produce periods of light to occasionally moderate rainfall from Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Rainfall totals should generally remain below half an inch. Temperatures will also continue to warm and run slightly above average as southerly winds continue to usher in warmer Gulf air. Highs will climb into the mid to upper 60s and lows will only fall into the 50s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 1208 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

As we move into Thursday and Friday, rain chances will diminish a bit as some increasing negative vorticity advection and upper level subsidence takes hold in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. However, continued onshore flow will keep transporting in ample low level moisture as noted by dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s over this period. Despite the drying in the mid and upper levels, the low level moisture advection into the area will keep PWATS higher than average at around 1.1 to 1.2 inches. Despite a lack of forcing upper level forcing mechanisms aloft within a very zonal flow regime, weak low level instability due to daytime heating into the upper 60s and lower 70s will support isolated to scattered light rain shower development Thursday afternoon. On Friday, the approach and passage of a backdoor cold front combined with the instability from highs warming back to near 70 degrees ahead of the front will support slightly more scattered shower activity in the afternoon and evening hours.

Now we move into the weekend, and the trickier part of the forecast. Models continue to differ substantially on the potential for some winter weather to impact the region, especially Saturday night into early Sunday morning. There is a nearly 20 degree temperature spread between the various solutions, and the spatial and temporal differences on where any ice develops differ greatly due to that temperature spread. Given the setup for this system with a zonal flow regime still in place aloft, the cold pool will be very shallow at the surface, and the temperature gradient will be extreme with a sharp transition from warm to cold occurring along the frontal boundary. Given the large degree of uncertainty, and the extended time window of this event, have stuck with the NBM deterministic output for the weekend. This results in a chance of freezing rain impacting portions of southwest Mississippi and the Feliciana Parishes north of Baton Rouge late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The rest of the area would stay warm enough to see only rain throughout Saturday night and into Sunday morning. One thing is certain, the forecast will continue to change over the coming days until the parent storm system moves closer to the CONUS and the global models get a better handle of the system. The best thing to do now is remain weather aware this week as we update you on the latest forecast thinking.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

With continental dry air and a surface high over the area, all terminals will remain VFR through this forecast cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1208 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A reinforcing cold front moves into the Gulf tonight. A bump in wind speeds to around 20 knots is expected west of the river, and small craft advisories may be needed for a brief window Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. On Wednesday, winds will turn onshore at 10 to 15 knots as a high shifts to the east and a low pressure system approaches from the west. These lighter onshore winds will persist through Thursday night. Friday will see winds turn more east and northeasterly behind the departing low. Saturday should see winds increase further to at least exercise caution and possibly small craft advisory range as a reinforcing front passes through the waters and a colder airmass begins to move in from the north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 28 58 38 61 / 0 0 0 40 BTR 30 61 42 66 / 0 0 0 40 ASD 27 59 38 66 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 37 59 46 67 / 0 0 0 20 GPT 32 58 41 63 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 27 58 36 64 / 0 0 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.