textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

- Ice Storm Warning, Winter Weather Advisory, and Winter Storm Watch were cancelled earlier as precipitation ended in those areas.

- Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all of the area tonight through Tuesday morning. Winds chills could range from near 0 to 15 degrees Monday morning and from the mid single digits to upper teens Tuesday morning.

- A Small Craft Advisory(SCY) and a Gale Warning remain in effect for all of the coastal waters through Monday with strongest winds and roughest seas tonight.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Rain threat will come to an end later this afternoon as a reinforcing shot of colder and drier air associated with the main upper level trough axis begins to move in. We will start to end some of the winter products soon. Temperatures will drop quickly tonight and overnight lows will fall into the upper teens and 20s across the entire region as an arctic airmass advects into the area. There is a very low potential for some freezing of puddles, mainly on bridges and overpasses, to occur later tonight into tomorrow morning. However, most roadways are expected to dry out this evening as strong northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph develop. These strong winds will also push windchills into the single digits and teens across the area. Skies will turn clear tomorrow as deep layer dry air and increased upper level subsidence takes hold, but the cold temperatures will persist. Highs will only rise into the 30s and lower 40s, or about 20 to 25 degrees below normal, and overnight lows will once again drop into the teens and 20s. Due to these extremely cold overnight conditions, an extreme cold warning is in effect for the entire area. Remember to protect your people, pipes, plants, and pets these next couple of days.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Deep layer northwest flow and below average temperatures will continue across the region in the long term period. A reinforcing front and shortwave trough diving down from the northern Plains on Wednesday will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average for both Wednesday and Thursday. This system will have little to no moisture to tap into, so no precipitation impacts are expected as this front moves. Highs will only warm into the upper 40s and lower 50s in the afternoon. Overnight lows will cool into the 20s and 30s each night.

Friday into Saturday, all of the guidance indicates that another shortwave trough axis embedded within the broader northwest flow regime associated with a strong and deep longwave trough dominating the eastern half of the CONUS will push through the region. There continue to be spatial differences between the models on how far north a low pressure system will form in the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday. The ECMWF solution is much further south with this feature, and this keeps the deeper moisture and threat of precipitation well offshore. However, the GFS and Canadian solutions continue to show a more northerly track that pushes some limited moisture into the southern half of the forecast area. Given the disparities, have opted to stick with the NBM solution for the weekend. This solution has some moisture spread over the area Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. As temperatures fall below freezing late Friday night into early Saturday morning, a very light wintry mix may develop. However, confidence on this occurring is extremely low. Temperatures are projected to rise into the 40s by Saturday afternoon, so any impacts will be very short-lived Saturday morning, if they even occur.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Flight restrictions were in place at forecast issuance time with overcast cloud bases ranging from FL008 to FL012. Little change is expected over the next several hours, but could see some minor improvement by late evening to perhaps FL015 as somewhat drier air works across the area. Probably won't see ceilings scatter out until perhaps mid-morning Monday, and that might be ambitious. Low level RH values drop to about 40 percent by midday which should lead to scattered clouds. No ceilings anticipated beyond that point through the end of the forecast period. Winds will also be a concern overnight with northwest winds 15 knots gusting to 25 knots or more at most terminals, and possibly closer to 30-35 knots at KNEW. Those wind speeds could continue for most of the day on Monday before relaxing. The exception would be KNEW, where gusts to 30 knots or more could continue through at least Monday evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A strong cold front will continue to push through the waters this afternoon. Gale conditions will develop tonight as a very cold and dry airmass moves in across the warmer waters. These gale conditions will begin to ease tomorrow morning, but small craft advisory conditions with winds of 20 to 25 knots will persist into Tuesday morning before easing. High pressure will then settle in by Tuesday night with lighter winds of 10 knots or less and calmer seas of 3 feet or less taking hold. These calmer conditions will linger through Thursday. Friday will see another cold front slip through the waters. At the same time, a low pressure system will begin to form over the western Gulf. Winds will gradually increase as the low in the Gulf strengthens with a return to small craft advisory conditions and winds of 20 to 25 knots expected by Saturday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ034>037- 046>048.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ068>070.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.