textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 551 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Temperatures will remain around 10-15 degrees through this weekend and into the middle of next week. The hottest days appear to be Today, Saturday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Highs for most areas expected to approach near or surpass record highs, along with the potential for record warm lows for some locations. - Summer-like pop-up showers and storms are expected along and north of the I-10/12 corridor today with stronger afternoon storms more likely on Saturday. A severe storm or two capable of damaging winds, hail up to 1", locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado cannot be ruled out especially in NW areas. An additional round or two of scattered to widespread showers and storms may follow Saturday night into Sunday in association with a frontal boundary which could lead to flooding of poor drainage and urban areas.

- Dense fog of less than 1 nautical mile of visibility is expected in the cooler shelf waters of the Mississippi Coast. Dense fog is not likely over land, but patchy fog cannot be ruled out for immediate coastal areas near the cooler shelf waters.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1254 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The warm season pattern has come early as strong, moist onshore flow from the Atlantic high pairs with unseasonably warm atmospheric conditions. Highs will be approaching daily records again today though it's unclear if we'll quite make it to tie/break them at the climate sites. Plenty of cloud cover and low stratus from lingering sea fog conditions are keeping the MS Coast cooler in the upper 70s today by comparison to elsewhere where we're comfortably in the low to mid 80s. This is 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year. As daytime heating makes the atmosphere more unstable, we'll continue to see more showers and an isolated storm pop up along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. These showers will gradually die out after sunset. In the overnight hours, sea fog is likely to redevelop along the cooler shelf waters of the Mississippi coast which will bring low clouds and some light to moderate fog to the immediate coastal areas. Winds never completely calm down overnight which should keep fog from laying down at the surface, and the likelihood of dense fog is on the lower side, closer to 20-40%. This sea fog should gradually lift after sunrise on Saturday.

A large ridge is expected build in across the Pacific NW as we move into the weekend with another well-established ridge clogging up the mid-latitude flow across the eastern CONUS. This has slowed the deepened positive-tilt trough situated across the Rockies that has been responsible for kicking up severe weather across the central CONUS. As the PNW ridge builds overtop of the northern Rockies it will pinch off the base of this trough in the SW CONUS while the rest of the shortwave trough escapes to the northeast and rounds the eastern CONUS ridge into the Great Lakes. As a result, the mid-upper atmospheric forcing helping to drive convection and surface boundary features will begin to wane on Saturday. What will need to be watched for is any weaker shortwave or "ripple" in the mid-upper level flow that could provide just enough extra lift in combination with any localized confluence of surface winds to generate more organized, cellular convection across our NW areas especially. Wind profiles with any convection that pops up on Saturday afternoon show only weak veering with height and 0-6km bulk shear is 20 to 30 knots during this time period so tornadoes are unlikely, but cannot be ruled out. This would be more akin to a summer pop-up thunderstorm environment with high 0-3km lapse rates helping fuel rapid initial updraft growth of slower-moving storms that will struggle sustain themselves and then collapse and could cause downbursts. With ample moisture in place, PWATs will be above the 90th percentile at around 1.4 to 1.6" by late Saturday which will also enhance rainfall rates with these storms, much like we see in summer. Despite weaker shear and higher freezing levels, hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts of the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1254 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Once the sun sets on Saturday, convection will gradually die off, but our attention will then have to turn northward as a pre-frontal trough approaches Saturday night. The primary question appears to be how deep the convection along the boundary will be as this can help to maintain cold pools and compensate for the departing better upper- level forcing. Global model guidance in addition to long-range CAMs indicate the potential for stronger cold pooling allowing the boundary to continue to surge into our area rather than stall out which would bring another round with more scattered to widespread coverage of showers and storms Sunday morning and into the afternoon, depending on the speed and timing of the trailing cold front. As a whole, confidence is highest in measurable precipitation nearly areawide on Sunday through the forecast period. The severe weather threat associated with this boundary will be predominantly damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and small hail. The tornado threat will be heavily dependent on boundary orientation being better aligned perpendicular to the bulk shear vector out of the WSW, but instead the boundary is almost parallel in current model guidance depictions. As such, in addition to the weak low-level inflow winds toward the boundary, the tornado threat is near zero as it appears with this pre-frontal trough on Sunday.

Depending on the frontal boundary placement, additional chances for showers and storms will continue into Monday. Tuesday will have the lowest chance for rain through the entire forecast period as shortwave ridging builds back in briefly and the frontal boundary continues to decay along the coast.

By Wednesday, we'll be positioned in the diffluent upper-levle flow of the trailing cut-off trough that will have been trapped in SW CONUS as it finally escapes to the east over Texas. This will provide another shot of showers and storms although specifics regarding timing and severity of storms remains unclear at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

CIG reductions are mostly ongoing across the region with a low stratus deck residing over most terminals. This will continue and perhaps cause further IFR or lower reductions later tonight and early Saturday. Cannot rule out a shower this evening for terminals along and east of I55. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the main story will be the lower CIGs with only a slight improvement expected by noon Saturday. Southerly winds will also continue through the cycle. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1254 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Onshore southeasterly flow will persist through the weekend averaging generally 8-12 knots with gusts 12-20 knots at times. Conditions will remain favorable for areas of coastal fog for nearshore waters on Saturday morning particularly for the Mississippi Coast. A dense fog advisory is in effect for Mississippi Sound and Chandeleur Sound and nearby waters for Saturday morning where visibilities will be 1 nautical mile or less at times. Otherwise, daily isolated to scattered shower/storm chances will persist each day closer to nearshore areas, with a greater risk of thunderstorm impacts to the marine waters on Sunday into Monday. Onshore southeasterly flow is expected to persist through atleast the middle of next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-536-557.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ536-557.