textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Fog struggled to develop last night and it appears that was due to winds in the first 2-3k ft as we saw stratus. We will likely see some patchy light to moderate fog again tonight but the setup just doesn't seem very favorable. Winds in the first few thousand feet will again be in the 15 to possibly 25 kt range and that should promote more stratus but the other issue is there is already a lot of cloud cover out there and with overnight lows only expected to drop into the upper 60s to near 70 we likely just won't even cool off enough. Even with all the rain we had Saturday and Saturday night that moisture has mixed now over the last day plus and isn't trapped in the boundary layer anymore.

The biggest problem in the short term could really be over the next 3 to 4 hours. A weak mid lvl impulse is currently moving into the Lower MS Valley and already sparking off some strong to severe thunderstorms just off to our west and northwest. A few of these storms could try to slide into northwestern portions of the CWA. The environment gets more and more unfavorable to the east and southeast into and across our CWA. With that not anticipating a lot of impacts but we should see scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms and along and northwest of a line from near Baton Rouge to Tylertown one or two of those storms could be strong to severe. Any activity will quickly come to an end mid late evening and we will remain quiet through the remainder of the night and tomorrow ahead of our next system. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Wednesday and Wednesday night is the main focus. A deep closed low right along the Baja coast will finally begin to lift out to the east-northeast tonight and tomorrow. This will be our protagonist bringing the next main shot of thunderstorms and the question is how much in the way of strong to severe storms will it bring.

From a synoptic standpoint this isn't the typical setup. First the main disturbance, mentioned in the previous paragraph, will actually be moving more east across TX and right along the Gulf coast Wednesday night. As it starts to move into the northeastern Gulf and southeastern CONUS it will be absorbed into a L/W trough over the eastern CONUS Thursday. At the sfc a deepening low over the mid/upper MS River Tuesday night will try to drive a cold front into the southern Plains and towards the Lower MS Valley as the low lifts into the Great Lakes. With it pulling that far away to the north there will be a secondary weak sfc wave along the front over TX which will move across the northwestern Gulf coast. The sfc low will continue to work east finally dragging the cold front across the area Wednesday night. For the stronger severe weather events typically see the h5 disturbance lifting northeast across TX and into the Lower MS Valley not east across the Gulf coast. Also the sfc low is not necessarily moving across the area in typical fashion during our severe weather events. In addition this will be a relatively weak sfc low.

Dynamically though we have a lot to work with. First off we do have a disturbance moving across the region. Even though the mid lvl disturbance will be filling and opening up mid lvl hghts will still drop at least 6-8dm late Wednesday afternoon and through the evening hours. The mid lvl jet will round the disturbance and move northeast through the CWA Thursday evening and overnight. That may be a little bit of an issue as the good mid lvl punch doesn't arrive till 6z and that could be a little late. Aloft we will see the subtropical jet run from the west central Gulf through the southeastern CONUS. We do look to move under the LFQ of the jet during the evening hours. The LL jet though is a little underwhelming. It will be in place from the northwestern Gulf into central AL Wednesday evening. We will possibly see the nose and core of the LL jet move across the region but the LL jet will be weakening.

As for the kinematics this is a little on the weaker side. The LL jet just mentioned will actually be weakening and could be weakening significantly. It will be stronger over the western Gulf, 35 to 45kt, with winds almost out of the south but as we move into the evening hours those winds weaken and could weaken considerably, 25 to 30kts, and out of the SW. The mid lvl winds are more than sufficient with winds around 50-60kt but it is more timing that could be the bigger issue with these winds. As for the jet, yes we do move under the LFQ eventually Wednesday evening but the jet will also be weakening with the core relaxing from near 90kt to around 75kt. The stronger mid lvl winds is helping to provide a 0-6km bulk shear value around 40-45kt which is more than sufficient to get organized convection but with the weakening LL winds the 0-1/0-3km helicity values are rather low, near 100 and 150 s2/m2. Those are not impressive but not below 100 and given the weak sfc low these values could be higher.

As for the thermodynamics this is not overwhelming either. MLCAPE values will likely be around 500 j/kg or possibly less especially the closer to the coast that weak sfc low travels. If it is farther north then we could see slightly better instability. That said we will have some elevated instability to work with but with a weak sfc low and a mid lvl disturbance filling in the thermodynamic field is also rather tame with likely a skinny cape.

All of this suggest the severe potential is on the lower end and what is more likely is strong to severe storms to our west during the afternoon and early evening. Those storms will likely continue and push into northwestern sections of the CWA during the evening hours with a few remaining strong to severe as they move through our northwestern zones with a slight weakening trend especially as we move towards 6z and after when instability is the lowest. /CAB/

After everything moves through we will move under weak northwest flow with cooler and drier air working into the area for the rest of the week. The next system will be late this weekend or early next week. /CAB/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Biggest concern aviation wise will be storms this afternoon and then cigs overnight. Not as concerned about the fog potential but MSY, NEW and especially GPT could see IFR vsbys right along the coast. Elsewhere mainly going to be dealing with low cigs which should improve late tomorrow morning. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

With high pressure centered well to the east and a front dropping down the Plains we will continue to see onshore flow through tomorrow. As low pressure deepens and moves into the Great Lakes driving the cold front towards the Lower MS Valley Wednesday these winds will strengthen to around 15 knots ahead of the cold front. There may be a weak low to develop along the front as it moves across the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night with strong offshore winds quickly developing behind the cold front. SCY conditions will quickly develop and we could even see a period of Gale conditions. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front as it moves through the coastal waters Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. These storms could also bring very strong marine winds and even a few waterspouts. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.