textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values climbing into the lower to mid 110s. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for today and tomorrow and an excessive heat watch for Monday. Into the new week at least Heat Advisories are anticipated. The impact of the afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal overnight lows.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

High pressure continues to control our conditions, so heat remains the impact of interest for the short term forecast period. There is a bit of a change coming, that being that by the end of the short- term in the mid-week timeframe the high pressure will be weakening slightly with correspondingly slightly lower temperatures and heat indices. Specifically, today and Monday we expect to see the daytime temps reaching and exceeding 100F. This all results in carrying daytime Extreme Heat Warning for today and tomorrow. An Extreme Heat Watch has been put in place for Monday; we will re-evaluate conditions tomorrow and issue the Warning tomorrow or perhaps can downgrade to an Advisory. With the anticipated slight weakening of the high, hopefully we can manage with Heat Advisories for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Additionally, we continue to have very low chances for precipitation. However, we could see isolated shower and thunderstorm activity along sea/lake breeze boundaries that provide some upward motion. There will be a lot of heat energy present and any one storm cell could take full advantage of this to become strong or even marginally severe.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

From midweek on, the center of the high pressure has moved to our west and we begin to feel the influence of a trough dropping in from the northeast. The GFS and ECMWF handle the modeling a bit differently with the GFS having a more slightly more agressive slug of lower pressure and dropping temperatures down to near normal range. The ECMWF leaves the current high pressure a bit closer to us and hangs on to higher temps. We'll see how the actual atmospheric environment evolves. Rain is still looking pretty scarce, although we do see a signal in both models for late Tuesday and early Wednesday. After that we get dry again, which matches with how the longer term climate outlooks have been setting up.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR across the area and through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms will be possible mainly toward sunrise. Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside any storms.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100.

GM...None. MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.