textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Strong winds will continue to contribute to several hazards through tonight. A Gale Warnings and Wind Advisory remain in effect through this evening and both mariners and drivers should be prepared for strong winds affecting navigation/driving. A Red Flag Warning also remains in effect through this evening for areas west of the Pearl River as these strong winds combine with low relative humidity to result in elevated wildfire danger.

- Freezing temperatures are likely across much of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning, with up to 6 hours of below freezing temperatures. A freeze warning has been issued for areas along/north of a line from Morgan City to Hammond to Pascagoula. People and pets without access to sufficient warm shelter could suffer from exposure-related illnesses. Late season freezes can also be especially damaging to sensitive vegetation that has already begun to bud and flower. Take precautions to protect tender vegetation.

- Beyond Tuesday, a significant warmup is forecast with temperatures returning to substantially warmer than normal by the end of the week. Afternoon highs are forecast in the mid 80s by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Biggest challenge in the short term will be determining exactly how cold it will get tonight. MOS Guidance has consistently been a solid 5-10 degrees colder than the NBM most places locally. With a history of being too cold almost this entire season following stronger cold fronts, think the MOS guidance is once again overdoing it a bit, but also think the NBM is bias correcting a little too much as well. That being said, have attempted to split the difference between the cold MOS guidance and warmer NBM run.

Biggest failure mode for this forecast will be if clouds hang around longer than forecast. Current forecast calls for clearing by around midnight for most land areas. Between the strong cold air advection and 6-8 hours of clear to mostly clear skies, we should see temperatures falling to near or below freezing for much of the area. The freeze has been upgraded to a freeze warning and the area expanded to go a bit farther south through the river parishes. The new freeze warning will generally be for areas along/north of a line from Morgan City to Hammond to Pascagoula.

The cold high will become more centered over the area Tuesday with highs only rising into the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures will plummet again after sunset but shouldn't get quite as cold as tonight. Currently, we're not forecasting any freezing temperatures for tomorrow night, but we do have a few locations that will be close - especially through the Pearl and Pascagoula drainages.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The high will shift eastward on Wednesday marking the start of a warmup. Winds will shift easterly by Wednesday morning and then southerly by late Thursday. In response, temperatures will rise and are forecast to be well above normal again Friday, with highs around or just over 80 by Friday and in the mid 80s over the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gusty north-northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist for another few hours at all of the terminals. The winds will start to decrease below at BTR, MCB, ASD, and HDC after 03z, but winds will remain gusty at around 15 knots at the remaining terminals through the overnight hours. The breezy conditions will finally ease at all of the terminals tomorrow morning after 12z as a high pressure system becomes centered over the area.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gale conditions will persist through this evening but winds should gradually ease this evening with small craft advisory conditions persisting through tonight. Further easing of the winds will occur on Tuesday as high pressure becomes more centered over the waters. As the high shift eastward on Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and fall to 10 knots or less. Seas will also ease to 3 feet or less by Wednesday morning. These more benign conditions will linger through the end of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-065>067-071-076-079>086.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ056>060-064>070- 076>078-080-082-084-086>090.

GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.