textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with the passage of a stronger cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Drier air is gradually filtering into the area with the passage of a weak front this morning making for a beautiful, but still seasonably warm day. No real notable changes to temperatures will come from this more Pacific-style frontal passage as the main cooler air mass remains held up over the northern CONUS through Friday. However, that will change as a shortwave trough phases within the base of a cut-off trough over the midwest and helps to drag a stronger cold front southward on Saturday. Given the troughing will be lifting out into the northeast CONUS, it's likely this front will slow and become diffuse as it crosses out into area. Some areas of south MS will wake up Sunday morning with temperatures into the low to mid 40s while coastal Louisiana will remain closer to the low to mid 50s.

The CWA will remain predominantly on the southeast flank of surface high pressure through much of the short term forecast period meaning plenty of dry, offshore flow that will keep rain chances near 0 percent.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Dry air will dominate the area this weekend, but there will be a limited chance of rain associated with a weak disturbance within the subtropical jet stream that will move across the area late Monday into Tuesday.

Beyond that temperatures remain largely seasonable through next week and little in the way of rainfall. Model ensemble guidance hints that the next shot at a cold front would be associated with a diving trough over the eastern CONUS late next week, but it's too far out to know specifics regarding rain chances and temperature changes with this just yet.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR conditions areawide with light, variable winds prevailing at all terminals. Some light, shallow fog will be possible on Friday morning around sunrise, but impacts to terminals are not anticipated at this time. Northerly winds will become prevailing and increase closer to 5 to 10 knots on Friday morning with a second frontal passage.

MARINE

Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A weak cold front continues to slowly move through the coastal waters today. Winds are generally light and variable and will remain that way until a reinforcing cold front moves through early Friday where winds will quickly become offshore again and a little stronger, around 10 to 15 knots. Offshore winds will be strongest over the weekend with gusts upwards of 20 knots before gradually decreasing into next week as the area remains under the southeast flank of surface high pressure.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.