textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- No significant rainfall in the forecast until at least early next week.

- Critical Fire Weather concerns Saturday behind the cold front. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for Saturday.

- Hazardous boating conditions for small craft due to strong north winds and rough seas on Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

No significant changes in thinking from the previous forecast packages. A fast moving trough pushing into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will drive a fairly strong cold front through the region tonight. Limited moisture in the mid and upper levels will keep this frontal passage dry, so no rainfall is anticipated. A fairly tight pressure gradient between a strong surface high over Texas and a weak low over the eastern Gulf tomorrow will create a period of gusty winds north winds from late tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will occur after the front pushes through the area due to this tight pressure gradient. The NBM has a known high bias in terms of post-frontal dewpoints in the Spring and Fall months. To counteract this, have used the NBM 10th percentile values for tomorrow. This lowers humidity values to between 20 and 30 percent for most of the area. Conditions will be primed for wildfires to occur given the gusty winds, and we advise everyone to not burn any brush or trash tomorrow. Cooler air will also filter in, and this will allow temperatures to fall back to more typical readings for late March with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s.

The drier air will quickly depart on Sunday as a surface high centered over the Carolinas becomes the dominant feature impacting our weather. Winds will quickly turn easterly and then southeasterly Saturday night into Sunday, and this onshore flow will allow for rising dewpoints and higher overall humidity by Sunday afternoon. Although conditions will remain breezy with winds around 15 mph, the critical fire weather threat will diminish. Still, everyone should remain cautious if they plan to do any burning on Sunday given the dry conditions in place. Temperatures will remain near average on Sunday, but the increasing dewpoints will push overnight lows higher for Sunday night. Readings should only fall into the low to mid 60s as dewpoints climb into the lower 60s. Fortunately, the stronger winds will prohibit fog from developing.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

All of the long term guidance is in good agreement on the overall synoptic scale pattern for next week. The pattern will at first be defined by a broad and deep ridge axis shifting from the Carolinas into the western Atlantic on Monday and Tuesday. This will allow for deep layer onshore flow to persist across the region. Temperatures will quickly rise back to above average levels in the low to mid 80s and overall instability will increase. Model sounding analysis indicates that PWATS will increase to around the 75th percentile for this time of year and mid-level lapse rates will be around 6.0C/km each day. These favorable lapse rates will support deeper convective updraft growth, and this will allow for scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity to develop each afternoon during peak heating hours. These diurnally forced showers and storms will quickly dissipate after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

Wednesday and Thursday will see the synoptic pattern shift as a stronger southern stream trough moves into the southern Plains and southern Rockies. The ridge over the region will shift further to the east and a broad and deep southwest flow regime will take hold of the region in the mid and upper levels. Slightly more favorable jet dynamics will also induce a broad area of stronger upper level forcing over the area, and this will allow for more sustained convective activity as we move into the middle portion of the week. PWATS will remain around the 75th percentile and ample instability as noted by SBCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/KG in the model soundings will both work to support scattered shower and thunderstorm development each day. The upper level support will allow convection to develop earlier and last later in the day, but overall convective activity should still be diurnal in nature with drier conditions expected at night. Temperatures will remain well above normal as onshore flow persists with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s each day. Overall, the pattern toward the end of the week will be more similar to that seen in May than early April.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will be in place through the entire forecast period. A scattered cumulus field ranging from 3500 to 4500 feet will dissipate around 00z with the loss of daytime heating. Gusty northerly winds of 15 to 20 knots will develop at all of the terminals after 06z and continue through the morning hours tomorrow in the wake of a passing cold front.

MARINE

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A strong cold front will sweep through the waters tonight. In the wake of this front, northerly winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots and seas will rise to 5 to 7 feet in the open Gulf waters. Given the strong winds and rough seas expected in all of the waters, a small craft advisory is in effect from late tonight into tomorrow. Sunday will see continued rough conditions for boaters as winds turn easterly, but remain near 20 knots through the day. The winds will finally begin to ease on Monday as high pressure strengthens over the area with southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots expected. These winds will continue through the middle of next week. Seas will also improve to 3 to 5 feet as winds decrease.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Red flag warnings are now in effect for portions of the area generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor for tomorrow. This is due to a period of critical fire conditions that is expected in the wake of a passing strong cold front. Minimum RH values will fall to between 20 and 25 percent on Saturday and winds will be between 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph through the afternoon hours. Conditions will quickly begin to improve on Sunday as winds turn southerly at around 10 mph and humidity increases. Minimum RH values will climb to between 40 and 50 percent Sunday afternoon and then further rise to between 50 and 60 percent each day next week. There will also be increased scattered shower activity that will bring some wetting rains to the area each day starting on Monday. Fog is not expected to be a concern the next couple of nights, but may return as we move into next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-071-076-079>086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071- 077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.