textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 108 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Line of strong to severe thunderstorms just ahead of a cold front will exit the area prior to sunrise. This line of storms could produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

- Strong winds will follow the front. Gale conditions are forecast to impact the coastal waters through the afternoon hours behind a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisories bookend the Gale conditions. A Wind Advisory is also in place for coastal locations and areas south of Lake Pontchartrain through this afternoon. And, if that's not enough the winds combined with low humidities this afternoon have led to issuance of a Red Flag Warning for elevated wildfire danger.

- There is increasing confidence that below freezing temperatures will be noted along and north of the I-12 corridor early Tuesday morning. A Freeze Watch is in effect for those areas.

UPDATE

Issued at 108 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Update to remove several counties/parishes from Tornado Watch 60, and will likely be performing additional updates as line transits the area. Will not update the AFD again unless there are changes beyond clearing the watch until the 12z TAF package is issued.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Upper trough extended from Iowa to east Texas, with ridging along the Pacific coast. A strong cold front was approaching McComb and Baton Rouge at midnight CDT. A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms was just ahead of the front. Temperatures that were in the lower and middle 70s will drop through the 50s in the wake of the front overnight.

The daytime hours today will be characterized by windy conditions, decreasing clouds and much cooler temperatures. High temperatures that were in the 80s on Sunday will not get out of the 50s today and Tuesday. Additionally, much drier air will be moving in and have lowered dew points from NBM deterministic values as they usually do not perform well in post-frontal situations. Relative humidity values combined with windy conditions justify the Red Flag Warning that was issued yesterday. For tonight, NBM continues to track well above the globals for overnight lows, and go a bit closer to NBM25 for the lows. Would note that the last cold spell, the globals ended up being too cool, so won't jump whole-heartedly onto the global numbers. Even the NBM forecast lows are near or below the records for March 17th and 18th. Won't change parameters of the Freeze Watch at this time, and assume that day shift will upgrade to a warning with the midday/afternoon package.

For Tuesday, very dry air remains in place, but wind speeds will generally be below 10 mph, so don't anticipate needing Red Flag Warnings on Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Northwest upper flow continues through about Thursday before ridging builds in from the west. Surface high pressure will be over the Gulf for the 2nd half of the workweek through the weekend. Don't expect any significant precipitation through the weekend.

Wednesday morning will still be chilly, and the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainage basins could hit pretty close to freezing again. Beyond that point, temperatures will moderate, returning to much above normal levels for the weekend, around 80 degrees.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Cold front moving through northwest sections of the area, with KBTR and KMCB likely seeing the FROPA prior to the new package actually going into effect. Current forecast timing will have the front through all forecast terminals prior to 10z. MVFR ceilings prevailing, but there will be the potential for IFR or lower conditions with TSRA as they move through a terminal. Wind gusts to 40 knots are likely with the TSRA, and KMCB saw a 38 knot gust at 0520z. Gusty northwest winds, with gusts in excess of 30 knots are likely at all terminals through at least late morning, with MVFR ceilings improving to VFR.

Cloud cover likely to diminish by midday, and gusty winds should diminish by sunset at all terminals except KNEW.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Cold front will move through most or all waters prior to sunrise. Will maintain the previously issued headlines with conditions gradually improving during the day on Tuesday. Beyond that point, don't see any wind/wave issues returning for the remainder of the forecast period. Fog doesn't appear to be much of a threat until perhaps next weekend.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-065>067-071-076- 079>086.

Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-047-048-071-076-079>084.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ056>060-064>070- 076>078-080-082-084-086>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071.

Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.