textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through much of the work week. The current and worsening drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and moderate winds will lead to potential for rapid fire growth. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Strong winds will continue to result in hazardous conditions for small craft across most coastal waters of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi into at least Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Upper ridging extended from the western Gulf to Michigan during the evening, with troughs over the western Atlantic south to Cuba, and over Utah/Arizona. At the surface, high pressure extended southwestward from Pennsylvania into south Texas. Clear skies across the area at midnight with most temperatures in the 50s.

The upper ridge will drift eastward over the next several days and be centered near Savannah Georgia on Wednesday. A weak upper low will be over the Bahamas at that time, with troughing over the eastern Pacific. At the surface, high pressure will remain pretty much where it's at right now. Precipitable water values will remain near the 25th percentile (0.75 inches).

Don't expect much in the way of clouds, let alone rain, through Wednesday. Very little day to day change in high and low temperatures. High temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with lows 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Longer term forecast continues to look pretty quiet as stubborn high pressure dominates the southeastern CONUS. Could see some moisture return undercut the upper ridging by next weekend, but generally speaking, air mass should remain pretty dry through the period.

Diurnal ranges will continue to be fairly large with lows in the 50s and lower 60s area-wide and highs in the low to mid 80s most places.

Will be monitoring trends regarding the potential for a frontal passage in early November, though latest model runs have backed off on this solution a bit. Bottom line - doesn't look like we'll have any meaningful rain chances for at least the next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place through the period. Winds generally easterly, and 10-12 knots at most at forecast terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A strong surface high will remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic region today. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will begin to deepen over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds picking up across the open Gulf waters. Easterly winds will remain sustained near 20 knots with frequent higher gusts and a Small Craft Advisory for all waters except for lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador is in place through Monday morning. These headlines will likely remain up through much of next week as strong easterly winds continue.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Dry conditions are going to persist for the next several days as high pressure remains over the region. Minimum RH values will be between 30 and 40 percent north of I-10 today and Monday. 20 foot winds are expected to remain near or below 10 mph today and Monday north of Interstate 10, and 10 to 15 mph over southeast Louisiana south of Interstate 10. The worsening drought conditions and low fuel moisture content will keep wild fire spread potential on the higher side. A Fire Danger Statement remains out due to this higher fire potential even as conditions remain below red flag warning criteria. As we move into the new workweek, increasing humidity values will help to limit fire potential even as conditions remain dry.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ534>536-541- 543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.