textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 110 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Drier air from a back door front brings breezy conditions along coastal areas, unsettled marine waters, and a few scattered showers/storms on Wednesday.

- More comfortable humidity and dry conditions will follow on Thursday and Friday, but moisture and rain chances will begin to return by the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Heat indices remain well into the 100s in many places today with elevated moisture still mired across the northern Gulf coast. However, reprieve is on the way! A back door front is on our doorstep, positioned along the MS/AL border and eastward into the FL Panhandle at this hour. As the surface high builds over the eastern CONUS into Wednesday, the front will push from east to west across the area bringing isolated to scattered shower/storm activity and then drier air behind it. Breezy conditions especially along coastal areas can also be expected beginning Wednesday morning and continuing through Thursday in association with a tighter pressure gradient on the southern flank of the strengthening high to the north. Sustained winds will be as high as 15 to 20 mph with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph across coastal areas with lower wind speeds expected farther inland.

Despite the frontal passage, highs will remain in the low 90s through the rest of the week with the main difference being humidity values around 15-25% lower. This will keep heat indices at a much more manageable level, closer to actual temperature. The deep-layer dry air will also keep rain chances near zero percent through Friday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The primary feature and source of forecast uncertainty this weekend and beyond is associated with a mid-upper trough near Nova Scotia currently that is forecast to retrograde around the periphery of the eastern CONUS ridge and move toward the eastern Gulf. Global model guidance disagrees on how fast this mid-upper trough will retrograde and reach the Gulf. The main discrepancy begins on Sunday with the latest GFS guidance more bullish on a deeper trough and faster propagation toward our area by Sunday while the ECMWF guidance remains stronger with the ridge and slower with propagation toward our area. A solution like the GFS would result in high temperatures backing down closer to normal and higher PoPs in the long range while a ECMWF solution would favor continuation of hotter and drier conditions through the weekend.

Regardless, moisture will eventually filter its way back into the area through the weekend and, depending on the ridge strength, afternoon storm chances will begin to tick back up as we head into the new work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing at all terminals with light, variable winds. A PROB30 remains for HUM where the highest probability of TSRA impacts exists though an isolated, brief SH/TS impact cannot be ruled out at inland terminals this afternoon. PROB30s were introduced for most coastal terminals on Wednesday morning in association with SH/TS impacts and a backdoor front. Easterly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts upwards of 20 to 25 knots can be expected especially later in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A broad surface high centered over the area will keep benign conditions in place across the waters through Tuesday with light and variable winds of less than 5 knots and seas of less than 2 feet expected. A few showers or storms will pop up in the morning hours with some locally higher winds and waves possible as well as lightning and waterspouts especially on Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient will begin tightening Wednesday morning behind a backdoor front. This will cause easterly winds to increase to 15 to 25 knots with gusts upwards of 30 knots midday Wednesday through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Wednesday night into Thursday night. Seas will respond to these higher winds and increase to 6 to 9 feet in the open Gulf waters. These unsettled marine conditions will gradually abate late Friday and into Saturday. Easterly fetch will cause slight rises to tidal ranges, but are expected stay below coastal flood criteria.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.