textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Heavy rainfall continues to be possible with any stronger storms through this weekend and into the start of the new workweek. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday evening for portions of the area generally south of a line from Baton Rouge to Bogalusa.

- Some storms will be capable of producing hourly rainfall rates of 1-3" per hour. High rates, even over short periods, could overwhelm drainage systems, leading to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas. Localized flash flooding could also result in some roads becoming impassable, mainly in areas where the heaviest rain falls, or where multiple storms result in longer periods of moderate to heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Biggest concern will continue to be potential for heavy rain and localized flooding as a result of multiple disturbances moving through the area. First disturbance is moving through currently, and will likely result in an increase in convective coverage during afternoon hours - especially south of a line from Baton Rouge to Poplarville. Some uncertainty in how far northwest this activity will spread as the upper trough axis tries to push activity southeastward. In fact, latest trends in CAM guidance indicate most of the convection may remain in coastal areas or even over the Gulf. Given trends in both recent radar imagery and model data, have adjusted POPs to show a bit more of a gradient between northwestern areas and southeastern areas through the afternoon, and am now carrying only isolated to scattered showers and storms farther inland.

Tomorrow will be much the same with above normal rain chances and some potential for locally heavy rain in any thunderstorms that develop. Forecasting the specific timing and placement of the heaviest rain continues to be challenging to say the least, but overall consensus indicates convection will again increase in coverage across the region during the late morning and afternoon hours as a weak upper low starts to take shape over eastern Texas. However, once again, latest guidance tends to indicate less coverage across northwestern areas.

Given these latest trends, have trimmed northern areas from the flood watch and it is now in effect for area generally south of a line from Baton Rouge to Bogalusa. Not super confident in the threat across the Baton Rouge metro given the latest trends, but with the vulnerability of the urban area, went ahead and left it in place given at least a lower end threat.

As we move into Tuesday, the weak upper low will still gradually lift northeastward at the same time a surge of enhanced moisture moves into the area from the Gulf. This should result in a more widespread shower and thunderstorm threat again on Tuesday. With PW values forecast to be near or even slightly above 2 inches as the deep Gulf moisture moves through the area, efficient rainfall will once again be a concern and the flood threat will increase again. This may require an extension and expansion of the flood watch for Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Not a whole lot to discuss that hasn't already been said multiple times at this point... The active pattern will persist through the remainder of the week and into next weekend. Timing of individual disturbances remains difficult, but rain chances will generally remain high each day.

With precipitable water expected to remain generally near or above the 75th percentile for this time of year, efficient rainfall will continue to be a concern and could lead to localized flooding each day wherever the heaviest storms move or where multiple storms move over the same area resulting in a more prolonged period of heavy rain.

Temperatures will generally be near to warmer than normal through the period with lows in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s and highs in the 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions will generally prevail outside of convection. Have attempted to include TEMPO/PROB30 groups for the most likely timing of heavier storms. Overnight, expect light to calm winds with gradually lowering cigs as a result of humid conditions in the low levels of the atmosphere. Widespread MVFR conditions can be expected, with some potential for IFR conditions near daybreak.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

High pressure anchored over the western Atlantic will maintain light to moderate onshore flow across the local coastal waters. Winds will be generally less than 10 knots today and in the 10 to 15 kt range through the rest of the period. Daily showers and storms will be capable of producing locally hazardous winds and seas, with a few cells each day capable of producing winds in excess of 34 kts.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for LAZ039-046>048- 056>058-064-070-076>087-089>100.

GM...None.

MS...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.