textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- Showers possible until about midday.

- Gusty winds ahead of and behind the front will be hazardous for small craft over the marine areas. Please avoid navigating hazardous conditions if you are in a smaller vessel until Sunday morning.

- Little or no rain is expected from Sunday until about Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The axis of the upper trough to our east is well off the Atlantic Coast. In the southern stream, one shortwave is exiting to the east, with the next near Oklahoma City. Ridging was over the Intermountain West with another deep trough off the California coast. At the surface, a frontal boundary extended from Middle Tennessee into north Texas. Skies were mostly cloudy across the area late this evening, with isolated showers from about Interstate 55 eastward, and temperatures mainly in the 60s.

While the LIX 00z upper air sounding would appear fairly moist with a precipitable water value of 1.24 inches (around the 80th percentile), that moisture was mainly between the surface and 850 mb. The LCH and SHV soundings were considerably drier with precipitable water values in the 0.7 to 0.9 range (50th percentile).

The Oklahoma shortwave will continue to dive southeastward and cross the local area during the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will also pull the cold front through the area by mid- afternoon. Moisture levels will be decreasing to slightly below an inch by sunrise. Considering how little cloud cover and precipitation is occurring upstream, it's becoming increasingly difficult to justify much more than isolated precipitation over the next 12-18 hours. The showers currently on radar are having trouble even reaching the freezing level, let alone deep enough to produce lightning. Really tough to see much in the way of precipitation very much west of Interstate 55 overnight, or south of Interstate 10. No precipitation expected Saturday night through Sunday night.

The NBM Saturday highs are actually just below the 50th percentile. Considering we've been closer to the 75th the last few days, wondering if our forecast highs will be warm enough, even with frontal passage. Wild card will be cloud cover, which is the only thing restraining me from bumping up high temperatures. If we get more sunshine than expected during the day, some portions of the southeast half of the area could touch 80, which might flirt with a few records. Cold and dry air advection will take hold overnight into Sunday. Lows Sunday morning are likely to be about 15 degrees cooler than ahead of the front with Monday morning perhaps a few degrees cooler than that. Highs Sunday aren't likely to get much beyond the middle 60s, and maybe not that warm.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Ridging will build eastward across the Gulf for Monday through at least Wednesday. A new trough will lift out of the southern Rockies toward the end of the week, but timing of that occurring has been somewhat inconsistent. The earliest that it looks to occur would be perhaps late Wednesday night or Thursday, but maybe moreso on Friday. At this point, it appears that the best forcing should be well to the north of the area with that system.

The workweek next week looks to be rather warm...as much as 15 to 20 degrees above normal. High temperatures will start out around 70 on Monday, but most of the area is likely to be in the mid to upper 70s from Tuesday through at least Thursday and probably Friday. The exception would be areas very close to coastal waters, where water temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s would temper highs a few degrees. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a few spots hit 80 degrees in that Tuesday through Thursday period. Overnight lows for much of the week could be pretty close to 60, which is actually close to the normal high for early January.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Most terminals were bouncing between VFR and MVFR at forecast issuance. Isolated SHRA have developed over the last few hours ahead of the impulse to the west of the area. One or two tops might be at FL150, but not much higher than that, so it's going to be tough to get TSRA. The threat is non-zero, but will only carry SHRA for now. IFR ceilings are possible at most terminals overnight and into Saturday morning. Should see improvement to MVFR by mid-morning. Main forecast issue for the afternoon hours is the timing of the exit of low cloud cover. Southern terminals may actually clear well before the northern ones. Do expect all terminals to go to VFR conditions prior to the end of the forecast period.

Winds haven't been quite as strong as expected this evening, and newest guidance indicates that any impactful wind gusts during the day on Saturday or Saturday night are likely to be limited to KNEW.

MARINE

Issued at 1134 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Small Craft Advisories and Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will remain in effect for most waters into the afternoon hours. Beyond mid-afternoon, will have Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for all waters until around sunrise Sunday. There may a brief lull in conditions behind the frontal passage until cold advection increases. But this period isn't expected to be long enough to justify lowering headlines entirely.

From Sunday morning onward, conditions should improve, with no cautionary headlines or advisories anticipated through the end of the marine forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 70 42 64 42 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 74 44 67 44 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 77 46 67 43 / 20 0 0 0 MSY 77 51 65 49 / 20 0 0 0 GPT 75 49 66 47 / 40 0 0 0 PQL 76 46 67 43 / 50 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for GMZ550-552-570- 572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Saturday for GMZ552-570-572- 575-577.