textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 618 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Front slowly moving through but rain will stick around today for the southeastern half/third of the area.

- Behind the front winds will quickly veer around to easterly and increase in speed. Winds of 20 to 30 knots across all waters will develop later today and persist through Friday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Friday.

- Strong easterly winds and spring tides are expected to lead to minor coastal flooding for portions of coastal MS and east facing shores of SELA east of the MS River. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Front continues to move through the area and should be completely off the coast by sunrise. Drier air is starting to quickly surge southwest behind it only just now starting to enter the CWA. Looking well behind the front to the northeast with dewpoints dropping into the lower to mid 60s across central and northeastern MS and even mid 50s in central AL. We have dewpoints that are now in the upper 60s to lower 70s across out northeast and those will continue to fall. The question is how far southwest does the drier LL air make it. Overall the column will still be fairly moist but the boundary layer could be on the drier side for the northeastern 3rd or that quadrant from I-55 east and along and north of the 10/12 corridor. The southwestern half of the CWA on the other hand will likely remain on the wet side and models indicate that there could be quite a bit of rain coverage wise across the river parishes today. That said there are some questions with respect to how much coverage we may see today. Some of the guidance including the NBM have 60-80% PoPs for much of the area (only one truly lower is PQL with 40-60% but that still seems a little high). A few things: 1, we did have a front move through and will make it completely through the area. 2, there is definitely some decent drier air trying to surge into the area and it already looks more impressive than what most of the models and guidance had indicated (probs to the raw ECMWF, not the ECMWF MOS, as it was one of the few that actually advertised dewpoints dropping into the 50s across the northeast). 3, we will actually be seeing isentropic downglide all day across most of the area. That alone is not favorable for rain but is not the nail in the coffin. Biggest factors determining rain will be if any real daytime heating can occur and even though the front moved through is there any remnant outflow boundary or very weak lake breeze that can help a few showers kick off. There is an outflow boundary that has moved into the area from the northeast that was from convection that was well behind the front so there is that. Overall not very confident in numerous to widespread showers today so we did back off on the PoPs a little using a blend of the HREF and NBM which kept PoPs for the most part in the 40-60% range. Highest confidence in rain will be coastal SELA north to I-10. As for thunderstorms, instability will be far more limited today and showalters will barely be in the negative mostly ranging from 0 to -1C. That does suggest some elevated instability will be present but mid level lapse rates will be quite anemic around 5.5 to maybe 6 C/km.

Winds behind our front will begin to veer more easterly and increase especially across the coastal waters. This will begin to create another issue, maybe as early as today for a few isolated problem areas but especially Thursday and now likely into Friday and that is tides. We are just going to start coming out of the spring tide meaning we have large tide ranges right now and given a moderate to strong easterly wind over the coastal waters it is going to easily pile the water up across portions of the coast on top of the high astronomical tide. Winds will not start to really increase till midday early afternoon so tidal impacts may be a little more isolated this afternoon plus with winds mainly easterly and not as strong west of the mouth of the river we will not be piling up the water on that side as much today and thus canceled the Coastal Flood Advisory for areas west of the river but that was only for today. The highest tidal impacts for much of the region will be Thursday after 24-30 hours of strong easterly winds driving water to the coast and given the shape of LA and MS that water will not have anywhere to go. The problem now is that a tropical wave which has already moved northeast out of the Yucatan Channel will continue to work northwest into the central Gulf and towards the LA coast Friday and onshore this weekend. That feature along with the stout sfc high over the southern Appalachians will lead to a tight pressure gradient over the Gulf and thus we will continue to see strong easterly winds through Thursday night and then winds will slowly start to veer more east-southeaserly Friday which will continue to drive more water into the coast. With that we will likely need to extend the Coastal Flood Advisory into Friday for portions if not all of the coast. Also by Friday we likely will have now driven in enough water through the Rigolets and into the tidal lakes that both of them may need to be added to the Adv.

Weatherwise, Thursday should be much drier for most of the area. The front still in the Gulf will begin to washout some but it won't completely lose its identity till late Thursday with return flow finally setting back up Friday. As that tropical wave starts to work closer towards the coast Friday we will see moisture also pile up over the area and that could become a little more of a problem Friday and into the weekend as rich tropical moisture will be in place leading to numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. We will need to watch closely if there is any Flooding concerns, especially with high tides which will hinder drainage from local rivers. We may be just enough on the fringe of the ridge which will try to build across the Gulf this weekend or if it is weaker we may get more of an influence from a closed mid lvl low over Mexico to move closer towards the region this weekend as it starts to kick out. Currently there is a Marginal Risk for Excessive rainfall for the area Friday through the weekend. If the ridge doesn't have as much of an impact as currently indicated we could see widespread rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts from today through the weekend. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An upper level trough tracking east across the northern half of the country this weekend will flatten the ridge over the Southeast and shift its center southward into the Gulf. Its center and strength at this time will be a big driver of local weather. If its a bit stronger and/or closer to the CWA early next week, look for a lot less convection. Global model solutions suggest a bit weaker upper ridge, which allows for much more widespread convection. Recent overarching pattern would lean that way as well. Thus, latest forecast falls right in line with that, holding POPs in at least in the 50+% range, which some days closer to 80%. Much like typical summer patter, showers and thunderstorms initially develop each day along lake and sea breezes as we reach convective temperatures, which will generally be in the mid 80s. From there, expect coverage to ramp up considerably. Localized flash flooding will certainly be a threat with potential for very high rainfall rates along with outflow boundary interactions with storms possibly stagnating movement for periods of time. Other threats include gusty winds and frequent lightning with more intense storms.

As noted above, convective temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s, so high temperatures probably won't get much warmer than that. Overnight lows are likely to be in the 70s. /MEFFER/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

All terminals are in VFR status and should remain that way until showers and storms move in later today, if they move over the terminals. Main concern with TAFs is convection again but overall most of it should be showers with isolated thunderstorms and mainly along and west of a line from NEW to HDC to north of BTR. This will likely lead to conditions dropping into MVFR and IFR with cigs ranging from 1k to 2500 ft at times but that is likely only under rain. Rain should slowly move closer towards the coast early this evening. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 216 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

The backdoor cold front is currently moving through the region and was almost bisecting the region shortly after midnight. The front will continues its slow march towards the coast moving off the MS coast before the latest forecast is out. It will then slide off the SELA coast just before sunrise. A very brief period of offshore winds will occur immediately behind the front...brief. By mid late morning winds will quickly veer to easterly over MS Sound along with the Sounds and waters east of the Mississippi River Delta and rapidly increase to Small Craft Advisory conditions. The winds will finally start to shift more easterly south of the LA coast late today and increase to Small Craft Advisory conditions late this afternoon or this evening. The winds are responding to 2 features, a large area of high pressure which will work down the Appalachians and into the southeastern US while a weak tropical wave continues to move northeast across the central Gulf and towards the LA coast by the end of the week. These two features will keep a tight pressure gradient in place leading to strong easterly and eventually southeasterly winds into the weekend. This will lead to prolonged hazardous marine conditions along with coastal flooding concerns, especially along the coast east of the Mississippi River delta.

/CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078-091.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ093-095-097.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ529-531-532-534>536-554-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ533-541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ531-532-534>536-554-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.