textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1129 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Well above average high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s will occur this week. Heat index values will climb into the upper 90s.

- The threat for thunderstorms, some possible strong to severe will be back for the latter half of this week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

The Atlantic high is beginning to ridge back into the area this morning. This will help send the weak trough to the north of the area for today and Tuesday. This does not mean there will be no rain at all, but numbers will be far less than they have been. Unfortunately, this will bring the heat out though. It looks like there will be a few sites that will hit 90F for the first time this year. These numbers are not common for April but also not unheard of. The earliest that some of our cities have reached 90F include Baton Rouge March 2, 1909; McComb April 6, 1952; New Orleans March 27, 1929; Gulfport March 29, 1907. But, if we do reach 90F over the next few days, and this is expected, it will be the first 90F of 2026 for our area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

An upper-level ridge continues to be anchored near Mexico City and expanded north across the southern US from AZ to LA. More locally though, should really be seeing erosion of the northern extent of this ridge as upper level trough to the north broadens and amplifies. Still not enough ridge suppression to bring down temps much but could bring in some rain to the northern portions of the forecast area. Increased cloud cover or rain brought in from the frontal boundary associated with this trough is best chance to keep highs from nearing or exceeding records, which is near 90 for the most part.

As the aforementioned trough axis passes east of the CWA and digs a little farther south, a cold front will be sliding into southeast LA and southern MS early Thursday. While there may be some scattered showers along the boundary, timing will limit instability and should just be looking at showers.

Southwesterly flow increases in the mid and upper levels Friday as an upper level low comes into the southwestern US, reaching the 4 Corners region late in the day. This setup will first lead to a fairly substantial cirrus deck over the CWA Friday. That, combined with east to northeast flow will yield even cooler highs. Will be the first time in about a week that highs struggle to reach climatological normal. Remains to be seen if post frontal PW under 1" is sufficiently re-saturated to produce rain by the end of the day Friday with moisture coming in from the west. By Saturday though, rain chances come up considerably and upper low/trough moving across TX will provide conditions much more conducive for widespread shower/storm development over the local area.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Most sites should be VFR through this taf cycle. There are some areas where FG could for this morning along and east of a line from MCB to ASD. These terminals could fall into IFR conditions for a short time around sunrise.

MARINE

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will remain in place through the middle of this week. Seas will remain well below any hazardous limits at 1 to 3 feet through the period. As we move into the back half of the week we will see a weak cold front drift south towards the coast and could even sink into the coastal waters this weekend. This could provide plenty of storms that produce erratic wind shifts and speeds.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.