textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the open Gulf waters through this evening.

- Dry weather is expected until Tuesday. A quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances Tuesday or Wednesday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected, especially next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Temperatures have warmed this afternoon close to 70 degrees in some spots with most locations away from the cooler waters climbing into the lower 70s for highs. Conditions remain on the dry side with dry northwesterly upper level flow still over the region as we remain under the eastern periphery of an H5 ridge that continues to gradually slide our way from Texas. Upstream, we will be watching a rather weak surface cold front move southward toward the region overnight, which will help reduce the warming trend we experienced over the last day or so briefly. This will knock temperatures on Saturday down 5-10 degrees compared to today with most locations climbing into the lower to middle 60s as winds shift to a more northerly direction. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

After a somewhat cool night Saturday night (temps in the 40s southshore and upper 30s north), temperatures will quickly begin to rebound in the second half of the weekend. The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to gradually slide east, which will continue to help bump temperatures, especially at the start of the new workweek. Going into early to midweek, eyes refocus upstream over northern Mexico where an H5 shortwave looks to amplify and then quickly move over Texas...then toward our region by Tuesday or Wednesday. Among the globals, both the GFS and ECM have this feature, but the ECM is a bit slower. Regardless, QPF appears to be limited with most of the upper support remaining north of our region. Carried lower-end POPs for Day 6 for now. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast cycle. The only concern is winds with some directional changes through period. Expect winds to slightly decrease overnight and transition to a more northerly direction before increasing once again during the day on Saturday. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Winds have increased once again today with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the open waters through the evening. Improving conditions are expected to arrive later in the day Saturday, but cautionary headlines may still be needed for portions of the Gulf waters. More favorable conditions for marine operations anticipated for late this weekend and into early next week. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ552-555- 557-570-572-575-577.