textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 453 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- A heat advisory has been issued for the southern half of the area as dangerous heat remains. Peak heat index values up to 110 degrees remain possible in these areas.

- Numbers of storms will increase through the weekend as a cold front stalls near the coast. The strongest of these storms could cause strong to damaging winds with heavy rainfall which could lead to isolated flooding issues.

- Storm numbers will fall next week becoming isolated to scattered each day as a more normal summer pattern takes hold.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

It will be hot again today but there is a front in the vicinity bringing only slightly cooler dew pts. These dew pts are not going to be low enough to make it feel comfortable as the drop will be basically from 78F to ~75F. But the front will keep more of the area in cloud cover once storms errupt. This should help keep the northern half of the area out of a heat advisory while the southern half will need an advisory since there will be no real relief outside any storms. The highest chances of storms developing today is over coastal Miss and this should be after the hottest temps are acknowledged. Most areas to the west of the Pearl River will still have chances but very isolated. The real wx maker is now moving SE out of Iowa, Nebraska and Colorado. This cold front will be found cutting through northern LA and central Miss by late Saturday bringing a line of storms to the area and some actual dry air with dew pts in the mid to upper 60s. Thats not huge amounts of drying but it will be felt in comparison to the air that we currently have.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

An upper level trough will dig down through the Midwest into the TN Valley this weekend, keeping elevated PoPs across the area. Sunday, a frontal boundary drops down into the region which also helps keep rain and thunderstorm chances around. Southern areas will see a lot more of the rain chances compared the northern areas. While this front won't bring much of a change in temperatures, it will briefly bring down the dewpoints making for a slightly more comfortable feel outside. The original upper level trough slides off to the NE early next week, but a longer wave trough slowly makes its way towards the Central Plains, catching us in more of a ridging pattern for at least a couple days. This keeps temperatures in the mid 90s around through a mid week. Convection next week will be mostly dependent on lake and sea breeze boundaries.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR between scattered storms. TSRA will cause MVFR to IFR conditions while they move over.

MARINE

Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

High pressure over the southeast gulf will keep a predominantly westerly to SW flow regime through the weekend. There will be the usual diurnal increase in winds over the eastern waters where winds approach and sometimes slightly exceed 15 knots during the evening and part of the overnight hours before diminishing. A weak front will settle along the northern gulf and remain nearby through the weekend, bringing increasing thunderstorm coverage. Seas will generally remain 1 to 3 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet offshore, although locally hazardous winds, waves, lightning, and reduced visibility will occur near stronger storms.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ056>058-064-070-076>087-090>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ083>088.

GM...None.