textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Warm with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week. Organized severe storms are not expected, but an isolated strong to severe storm with heavy rain is possible. Cold front is expected to move through over the weekend with more widespread rainfall. - Winds will remain elevated for marine areas and may be in and out of caution levels for the next several days. Northerly winds behind a cold front over the weekend may rise to around 25kt.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Coverage will be a bit less today than previous days. But this won't be the case as we move into Saturday and a front approaches. The moisture feed ahead of this front will interact with the weak troughing over the area to bring about better coverage for all locations to get a few sh/ts at some point Saturday. Some of these storms could become strong or low end severe with heavy rainfall but this should not be a widespread event and the marginal risk that SPC is showing should suffice for Sat.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Going into the long term, globals are still not in "great" agreement in terms of the progression of the surface boundary. The GFS continues to stall the feature just south of the region within the nearly zonal H5 flow aloft. The ECM et al want to send the front through the region and generally outside of the local waters clear all rainfall by late Sunday (the drier solution). That said, still uncertainty exists in the medium range with such differences. The GFS would lead to a wetter solution in additional to convective showers and storms ahead of the front, there would be more cloudiness and stratiform precip behind with isentropic upglide setting up over the area with the CWFA being on the cooler side. On the other side of the coin would be temperatures on Monday. There would be a vast difference with the GFS being much cooler than the ECM...could be as much as 15 or more degrees respectively. Currently, we are generally going toward the drier solution, however, keep in mind if the GFS wins the global model race, Monday's temps will be much lower than currently advertised.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be much drier with a dry northwest upper level flow setting up through midweek. Eventually surface high pressure will move east over the Mid Atlantic states eventually shifting the low level flow back to a more moist onshore flow by Thursday. At the same time, the old frontal boundary will begin to lift northward, which may trigger an isolated shower or two on Thursday, especially along the immediate coast. Otherwise, expect temperatures to be around or perhaps slightly below average to start the new workweek, but overall a warming trend is expected to start Tuesday through Thursday with highs approaching the upper 70s as the period ends. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will improve to VFR later this morning. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA possible again this afternoon, but probabilities only high enough to mention for KBTR at this time, with PROB30 for the afternoon hours. Any convection should dissipate around sunset. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to redevelop at most or all terminals beyond 06z Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Nearly stationary high pressure will continue a persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet over the coastal waters through Saturday. There could be brief periods of winds approaching 20 knots. A cold frontal passage late Saturday or Sunday will turn winds northerly on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories may be necessary Sunday night into Monday behind the front.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.