textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1059 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Low relative humidities combined with the gusty winds will produce critical fire conditions across our area today and again Monday. A Red Flag Warning is in on Monday. There are several wildfires ongoing across the area. Several Parishes have put Burn Bans in place.

- A significantly cooler airmass has arrived and will be in place through Tuesday. The coldest morning will be Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions across areas north of the I-10/12 corridor. A Freeze Warning may be necessary Tuesday morning, given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their dormancy.

- We will warm up beyond Tuesday back to above normal temperatures by the end of the week. We will also see our next rain chances Thursday and Friday with a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1059 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

In the upper levels a strong Nor'easter is tracking to the New England area. This, combined with a ridge to our west, is producing a high pressure gradient and high winds that should last through Monday. At the surface we have high pressure moving over us which should help settle the winds into Tuesday. Temperatures behind a cold front tend to bottom out the second day after the front passes and this is, indeed the case, with lows early Tuesday morning dropping to around freezing. Generally, the lows will be just above freezing south of I-10/12 and just below freezing to the north. As mentioned in the key messages, we are concerned with wildfire likelihood due to high winds and low relative humidity. The temperatures and RH will begin to rebound through the day Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1059 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

High pressure will be moving off of us to the east on Wednesday, with the local area remaining in northwesterly upper level flow. That will get reinforced Thursday, as a strong shortwave moves through the Ohio River Valley. This pushes another cold front through the area Thursday, with a chance of rain. Again, this isn't expected to be a heavy rainfall event, with areas that do receive rain likely receiving less than one half inch. The area that needs rain most, the northwest corner of the area, has the least chance of actually getting any. Instability looks to be rather meager, so not extremely concerned about severe weather at this point.

Wednesday we'll be back to above normal temperatures for the second half of the week through next weekend. Even the cooler solution of the GFS for Thursday/Friday only knocks temperatures back to around normal for a couple days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. The only aviation concerns will be wind related, with gusts of 15-20 knots through the period at most terminals. Some potential for LLWS overnight where surface winds drop below 10 knots for a brief period. Winds will again be on the gusty side during the daytime hours Monday, with gusts as high as 25 knots possible as early as 15-16z.

MARINE

Issued at 1059 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Lakes and offshore winds remain elevated so Small Craft Advisory runs through the daytime hours tomorrow, and may need some sort of headlines beyond that point through tomorrow night. Looks like Tuesday may be the only day where no headlines are necessary during this forecast period. Winds likely to increase again Wednesday and Thursday with the next cold front approaching the waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Dense Smoke Advisory until 1 AM CST Monday for LAZ076-079-080.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.