textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Partly to Mostly sunny skies to return as rain chances remain near the coast and offshore waters.

- Small Craft Advisories will be in place for most of the coastal waters beginning today through at least late Thursday.

- Tropical cyclone development is expected in the southern Gulf this week however much uncertainty remains as far as exact location and strength.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

All eyes will begin to take note of the issue beginning to develop in the southern gulf today into Wed. The question is becoming not that a tropical cyclone will develop, but where will it go and how strong does it get once it does. This is October and tropical cyclone paths can be quite finicky during this time of year. Either way this goes, we will still see a lot of sh/ts developing over the coming days with winds slowly rising through the week especially over marine areas and coastal regions. The environment over the southern gulf is very conducive for development, almost textbook with a large upper diffluent pattern and two jets aloft to the NE and SE. Looking at what is occurring before this tropical influence moves toward the northern gulf coast, we will remain dry for the most part, with exception to coastal areas. NE winds will remain over the area through the next several days. But the sfc part of the cold front will remain locked over the northern half of Louisiana for the next several days. This can be seen very well in the dew pt field where the gradient is strongest.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Going into the upcoming weekend the primary concern will be what actually happens to Invest 92L as it continues to move generally toward the central Gulf Coast. The 18z guidance is showing a mixed bag, but the overall guidance envelop is generally somewhere between our coastline in LA/MS and the Florida Panhandle. Given the low level center has not even developed yet, there will likely be some variations. Taking a look upstairs, a rather strong subtropical jet will generally linger over the I10 corridor, which should produce enough wind shear to help limit development as it nears land, especially the further west the system tracks. Given the upper level wind shear the system will likely be asymmetric with most of the impacts around the center and points east. It is possible if the system moves further east toward Florida we may see very limited amounts of rain. However, closer to our area, QPF values and potential tropical impacts become more and more likely.

All that to say we have some time to watch the system develop and allow more upper air and eventually RECON data to be ingested, which will build a bit more confidence. Given the strong upper flow and steering, expect the system to be moving very fast, so impacts at least wouldn't be as prolonged.

Moving beyond Invest 92L, globals are hinting at a more zonal flow going into late next weekend and into early next week, which should dry things out a bit and allow us to warm slightly above average with some locations across the western tier perhaps even warming close to 90F. Naturally, with the increase in rain and cloudiness with the potential impacts of invest 92L, temperatures will be held down during that duration. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Coastal terminals could see some cigs in MVFR ranges today but all other sites will remain VFR. No other issues expected outside cig levels.

MARINE

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Strong high pressure across much of the Plains will keep northeasterly winds over the the coastal waters. Meanwhile, the winds aloft will be from the southwest keeping an overrunning pattern that will bring scattered showers across the Gulf waters through mid week.

Marine conditions are likely to worsen after today as confidence is increasing for tropical cyclone development in the southern Gulf. By late in the week, winds across the open waters are expected to be from the ENE around 30 kts, with seas building to 9 to 12 feet.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ532-534>536-554-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ534>536-554-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ543-551-553-570-572.