textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Warm with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week. Organized severe storms are not expected, but an isolated strong to severe storm with heavy rain is possible. Cold front is expected to move through over the weekend with more widespread rainfall. - Winds will remain elevated for marine areas and may be in and out of caution levels for the next several days. Northerly winds behind a cold front over the weekend may rise to around 25kt.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Upper ridging was off the Atlantic Coast this morning. A shortwave trough extended from near Omaha to eastern Texas. A second trough was over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, the Bermuda high extended westward across the eastern Gulf, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Low pressure was over Kansas with a front eastward along Interstate 70 and a dryline southwest into west Texas. A line of showers and storms extended from near Little Rock to Shreveport to northwest of Houston.

This morning's upper air sounding was quite a bit drier than yesterday morning, with a precipitable water value near the 75th percentile climatologically (1.2 inches) vs the 90th yesterday. An extensive cumulus field was already in place, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving inland from coastal areas to the west of Interstate 55. Late morning temperatures were in the mid 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the upper 60s.

Moisture levels are expected to remain elevated through Friday, with the entire area keeping precipitable water values near or above the 75th percentile and some areas above the 90th percentile. The shortwave just to our west this morning will continue lifting northeast toward the Great Lakes with the best forcing pulling northeastward away from the area. The line of convection to our west should be in a weakening state as it arrives in southwest Mississippi and the Atchafalaya River Basin this afternoon, and may completely dissipate west of Interstate 55 this evening.

Areal coverage of convection should be less on Friday, as there won't be any organized forcing across the area. Probably will still be a good bit of cloud cover, though, with diurnally driven convection, and it will remain very warm.

Little day to day change in high or low temperatures through Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The shortwave over the Pacific Northwest this morning will be moving into the upper Mississippi River Valley on Saturday, with the trough axis southwest into Oklahoma at midday. By Sunday afternoon, the trough will extend from Quebec into the lower Ohio River Valley. The cold front in advance of this trough is expected to move through our area overnight Saturday night or Sunday morning. Recent runs of the ECMWF have been a little quicker and more aggressively pushing the front through the local area, with the GFS taking until midday Sunday to move it offshore, and not very far offshore at that. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in advance of the front with widespread coverage. Precipitable water values around 1.6 inches (exceeding the 90th percentile) are expected to be common ahead of the front. While CAPE values will be sufficient (1000-2000 J/KG), shear is likely to only be around 25 knots. A few strong to severe storms aren't out of the question, especially across northwest portions of the area, where SPC has indicated a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) of severe weather for hail/wind. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible in that area.

The transition day is likely to be Sunday, with some question remaining how far south the frontal boundary makes it. Current indications are that cloud cover is likely to be rather extensive Sunday and Monday, with at least some potential for light rain to linger during the day on Monday. High pressure is expected to eventually build into the area early next week, with dry weather for most of next week.

Temperatures will remain much above normal for Saturday and most of Saturday night until the front moves through. Daytime highs Sunday are likely to be in the 70s, but may not even reach 70 on Monday. Midweek highs are likely to be in the lower or middle 70s. Overnight lows could drop into the 40s across areas north of Interstate 10 for Monday morning into at least Wednesday morning, and into the 50s south of Lake Pontchartrain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Ongoing convection occuring over HDC, BTR and MCB at the start of the cycle. This will last for another couple of hours before decreasing overnight. Once again low stratus will likely be possible overnight and early Friday lowering CIGs to MVFR or lower Friday morning. Conditions will improve again later on in the day Friday. Convection on Friday appears to be more limited to BTR and maybe MCB. Southerly winds will remain moderate during the afternoon hours with many terminals gusting closer to 20 knots plus across the region. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will remain over the coastal waters for the next several days. There could be brief periods of winds approaching 20 knots. A cold frontal passage late Saturday or Sunday will turn winds northerly on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories may be necessary Sunday night into Monday behind the front.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.