textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1041 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures will stick around south of the cold front today, with patchy dense fog this morning. The near shore shelf waters have a higher chance of dense fog this morning, so a Marine Dense Fog has been issued until 10am CST.

- The next substantial chance of rain will be this afternoon and evening as a cold front makes it through the area. Rain totals should remain fairly low most places and likely will not result in much, if any, drought relief.

- A significant cool down is forecast Sunday into the beginning of the next work week. The coldest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions across areas north of the I-10/12 corridor mainly Tuesday morning. Freeze warning could be needed given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their cool season dormancy.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Areas of patchy fog is likely to develop this morning as a slow moving cold front remains draped across southern Mississippi with moisture pooling out ahead of it. The fog should remain fairly patchy as surface winds remain elevated this morning, but could be more widespread along the immediate Gulf coast. We will likely stay well above average temps-wise today south of the warm front due to compressional warming. Max temps were actually blended upwards with NBM50 to account for this which brings max temps flirting with more daily records. Scattered storm development seems likely along the front around 12-2pm as we reach peak daytime heating. It looks like we'll have modest MLCAPE of 1500 j/kg coupled with 0-6km shear of 45-50kt, so any robust updraft that forms will likely have mesocyclones. The hodograph profiles suggest that the main threat for any strong/severe storm will be hail as we will have weak low-level shear with efficient venting. The forcing for stronger storms seems to generally be along and east of the I-59 corridor, so that seems to be the most likely place for severe hail this afternoon and evening.

The activity should push southward with the front as the upper- level trough ejects across the northeast. Behind the front, we get strong cold-air advection to bring low down below normal. This cold air advection will stick around through the day on Sunday, so highs were bumped down closer to NBM25 to account for that. Also, the winds behind the front will be quite strong across the southshore (in the 20-25mph range) due to the tightened pressure gradient with the deepening low across the eastern seaboard. So, a Wind Advisory may be needed if trends continue.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Strong cold air advection will continue Monday behind the front and will keep temps below normal for both lows and highs. The coldest morning will be Tuesday morning as the trailing surface high filters across the area. We should get effective radiational cooling on top of the cold airmass that was advected in, so expect widespread freezing conditions along and north of the I-10 corridor. With this recent warm spell, freeze warnings will likely be needed since plants have likely come out of dormancy.

After Tuesday, the previously mentioned high should slide east and promote warm, moist air advection back into the area. This will lead to a warming trend towards the end of the week where we will be back above normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

IFR/LIFR ceiling have started lowering in the past few hours as we decouple. These IFR/LIFR ceilings will look to stay around through roughly 18z as daytime heating breaks up the deck. Visibility should not be much of an issue through 18z as winds will remain elevated enough to keep and visibility reduction minimal to MVFR conditions. Once the ceilings break up, expect an uptick in convective activity as the cold front moves southward across the area. Activity will be scattered in general across the front, son only PROB30s have been mentioned so far. This activity should pick up shortly after 18z across the northern terminals before pushing southward and ending around 00z. Afterwards, gusty northerly winds of 10-15kt look to take over right at 06z.

MARINE

Issued at 1041 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will persist with patchy dense fog each night/morning through Saturday. A strong cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in again behind it. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will cause winds to strengthen and turn offshore again Saturday evening. Once hazardous conditions set in Saturday evening, Gale conditions are expected. A Gale Watch is in effect for Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.