textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- Slightly drier air will remain in place through the first half of the workweek, resulting in relief from last week's oppressive heat and a general lack of showers and thunderstorms.

- Moisture will return to the area during the second half of the workweek, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon. Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain below hazardous levels.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Drier air behind yesterday's "cold" front will keep things fairly quiet through at least midweek. A few isolated showers and storms may pop up along sea breeze boundaries each afternoon, but for most places, rain chances will remain below 20 percent.

Temperatures through the period will remain near to slightly above normal with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s. However, with the drier air in place, afternoon heat index values will remain several degrees below advisory criteria, generally topping out around or just over 100 degrees each day in most places.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Going into the latter part of the work week, high pressure will build into the southeastern CONUS, causing winds to become more southerly to southeasterly. These winds will bring deeper moisture from the Gulf back into the area. As a result, we should start to see at least isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection by Thursday. Convection will likely initiate along sea/lake breeze boundaries, then become more focused along outflow from previous storms as the afternoons progress. Highest rain chances will be in coastal areas where the convective initiation is most likely.

Convective coverage is forecast to increase over the weekend in response to continued moisture increases, though the magnitude of the moisture increase continues to be unclear. The operational GFS is back to bringing a slug of tropical moisture into the area late Friday and Saturday with precipitable water values in excess of 2" while the Euro keeps the bulk of the moisture shunted southward over the Gulf. Will mention that the GFS ensemble is now also reflecting a bit more moisture with positive PW anomalies whereas previous runs were less bullish. Meanwhile, the Euro ensemble continues to indicate slightly negative PW anomalies.

That being said, can make no substantial arguments for why one solution would be more likely than the other and see no reason to argue against a blended approach which results in near normal moisture and rain chances through the weekend. However, the forecast will continue to be refined as the situation becomes clearer regarding how much available moisture there will be.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A few showers have developed east of KGPT and south of KHUM. Neither clusters appear to be headed towards those terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds and clear to partly cloudy skies.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Surface high pressure located over the Atlantic will gradually build westward into the Gulf causing winds to shift to a south or southeasterly direction by midweek. A weak pressure gradient will keep winds generally light with seas 2 feet or less. Daily shower and thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage by late in the week as moisture returns to the area and will lead to locally higher winds and seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.