textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025 - Scattered to numerous showers through the early morning hours with possibly a storm or 2 through Tuesday. If any storm becomes strong to marginally severe, it'll likely be in SW MS or adjacent LA parishes.

- A substantial cool down Thurs and Fri with morning temps in the 30s and 40s. A few places could briefly touch freezing across SW MS, and within the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainage areas.

- Hazardous conditions for small craft this morning and again Wednesday afternoon, possibly through the entire weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The upper level pattern across the country is quite progressive at this time, which is pretty typical of this time if year. What was a closed upper level low at one time is now an open shortwave, definitely on the downward trend as it tracks towards the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low is trying to develop underneath the upper trough but surface chart shows it's struggling, maybe 1010 mb. Regardless, there's enough lift via weak front and upper jet to support wide band of storms over northern and central LA into northern MS. As the early morning hours progress, however, dynamics just don't make it to the CWA. The upper jet is lifting north and weakening, lower and mid level winds weaken and low level inversion strengthens. Thus, really struggling to see severe potential for anywhere in the CWA outside of maybe only SW Mississippi counties. Then, going through the daytime hours, instability does develop as the surface warms. However, as noted just above, shear values will gradually be weakening. So while thunderstorms may develop and a marginally severe storm isn't impossible, the probability is quite low.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday night) Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Global models in good agreement that a secondary and deeper trough moving through the mid section of the country late Tuesday into Wednesday will drive a continental airmass well past the local area to the southern Gulf late week. That puts FROPA by around sunrise Wednesday morning for all but coastal areas. Moderate CAA will substantially drop temps (15+ degrees) and maintain that beyond Thanksgiving. Latest deterministic NBM lows Thurs and Fri mornings finally coming around from above the 90th percentile to atleast close to the 75th. Should be noted that model spread is quite minimal relatively speaking. Do think though that lows could be nudged down a bit in the Pearl River and Pascagoula drainage basins Friday morning. Probably don't moderate back to climo normals until next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions through the cycle outside of shower and thunderstorm activity. Covered any reductions associated with convection with PROBs. Overall, coverage should remain limited and brief. Light to moderate southerly winds can be expected, however, as a cold front moves through late in the period expect winds to shift to a more northwesterly direction and increase after sunrise on Wednesday. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1142 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A warm front that was located near the coast has surged north and is well inland now as a cold front approaches from the west. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop across the coastal waters early this morning through the afternoon. Shear is quite light and instability just enough for thunder but not severe. A tightening pressure gradient has beginning to increase winds west of the MS River per recent marine obs. With those speeds exceeding 20 knots, have recently initiated a Small Craft Advisory. This matches up perfectly with model boundary layer wind forecast. That forecast also shows those winds dropping off around sunrise as the tight pressure gradient will be a short wind mostly due to the proximity of the surface low to the local area and the progressive nature of this system. The actual front will finally move through the coastal waters Wednesday morning as deepening comma low rolls into the Great Lakes Region. The combination of cold air advection over the relatively warm waters, and the pressure gradient between the high and low will cause winds to strengthen into the 20-25kt range and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Wednesday afternoon through at least midday Thursday. As the high settles into the area later in the week, winds will ease and turn back to the southeast as the high shifts east of the area by Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 78 51 64 36 / 70 10 0 0 BTR 81 54 69 39 / 70 0 0 0 ASD 82 54 71 37 / 50 10 0 0 MSY 84 60 71 47 / 40 10 0 0 GPT 78 57 71 42 / 50 20 0 0 PQL 79 55 72 37 / 50 30 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.