textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. Some of the storms could become strong to severe and/or produce heavy rainfall at times.

- Residents should remain weather aware and pay attention to the forecast for updates and changes as specific timing and threat details regarding additional showers and storms through the weekend will continue to be refined.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Upper ridging over the Gulf this evening, with troughing from Ontario to the Oklahoma Panhandle to northern Mexico. Southwesterly flow across the local area with an extremely moist airmass in place. LIX soundings at 21z and 00z had precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches, which is at the top of the chart climatologically for early May. Airmass has been unstable with CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg on both soundings, and plenty of shear. There has been ample evidence of the severe weather threat this evening with isolated tornadic supercells riding along the northern edge of our CWA. At 11 PM CDT, the front was essentially from south of Meridian to near McComb and Baton Rouge to north of Lake Charles. South of the line, dew points were in the mid 70s. By the time one gets as far north as Interstate 20, dew points were in the 50s. Over the last hour or two, the only thunderstorms have been over the northeast corner of our area east of McComb, with scattered rain showers elsewhere near the front. Likely will remove remaining Mississippi counties and Washington Parish Louisiana from Tornado Watch 189 in next hour or two as current convection moves into Alabama.

With the surface boundary becoming parallel to the upper flow, it will only sink southward slowly and probably won't reach the Louisiana coast until late in the day Thursday. Beyond the current batch of convection, there's no major synoptic scale forcing expected until Friday afternoon, when the shortwave at the base of the trough over northern Mexico moves toward our area. From Thursday morning through about midday Friday, mostly cloudy skies will be common across the area, but with a good bit of drying between 700 and 900 mb, that should limit the amount of precipitation.

Cloud cover and scattered precipitation are likely to hold diurnal temperature ranges down to 10 to 15 degrees through Friday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

By the time the southern stream shortwave approaches Friday night, moisture levels will increase again to around 1.8 inches, but instability and shear won't be quite as volatile as the current airmass. That event is somewhat more likely to become a heavy rain producer than a severe weather producer, with widespread 1 to 2 inch amounts likely, with spot totals higher.

After the southern stream shortwave passes through the area on Saturday, there will be one more shortwave dropping in behind it on Sunday or Sunday night. That will likely produce one more round of showers/storms, but shouldn't be as significant an event as Friday night/Saturday. The shortwave will bring cooler and drier air to the area for early next week with plenty of sunshine.

Overall, temperature trends look reasonable, with one exception. The 12z GFS operational is showing high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 on Sunday, with the ECMWF and NBM numbers about 5 degrees cooler. The only scenario that would lead to the Mississippi coast being that warm is for a dry slot (sunny skies) with northerly winds. Right now, that looks to be a low probability scenario, so will not tilt toward a warmer solution. A couple of mornings with lows in the 50s for most of the area Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. A month from now those kind of low temperatures will be a distant memory.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

MVFR to IFR will prevail for most of the forecast period. This is primarily for low ceilings and will hang around for most of the day. There is a non-zero threat of some rain and perhaps a thunderstorm as a weak front slowly sags southward, but anything that forms will be very isolated. Due to the low confidence, generally put prob30s or left it out entirely.

MARINE

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Winds currently right around 15 knots across most of the waters, but should become more light and variable as a weak front stalls at or near the coast Thursday. This front will dissipate around Friday and onshore winds will return. There will be daily chances of showers and storms into the weekend. Any of the stronger storms could cause locally higher winds and waves/seas, along with potential for waterspouts. A final area of low pressure will move through on Sunday with offshore winds arriving for early next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.