textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

- A weak cold front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the area tonight into tomorrow morning. Despite relatively high rain chances, rain totals are generally forecast to be around or less than one half inch, which will do little to ease ongoing drought conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A shortwave trough axis and attendant frontal boundary will continue to slip through the Gulf South tonight into Friday morning. The best forcing will remain displaced well to the northeast of the forecast area, but sufficient lift along the weak frontal boundary will allow for a line of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop and push through the area in the next few hours. The peak timing for this line looks to between 3 am and Noon this morning based on the latest convectively aided model guidance. Additionally, the most likely area for convective development to occur will be areas east of I-55 including metro New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf coast. Fortunately, the threat for strong to severe thunderstorm development is very low due to a lack of sufficient shear and limited instability. Any storms that pass through will be weak with lightning and brief heavy downpours being the main concern during the morning commute. By the afternoon, the line will push offshore and skies will rapidly clear on the back of strong dry air and negative vorticity advection into the region.

In addition to the shower and thunderstorm threat for tonight, moisture pooling and light winds will allow for some fog to develop mainly along the I-10/12 corridor stretching from Baton Rouge over to Slidell and Gulfport between 5 am and 9 am this morning. Fortunately, the fog is not expected to turn dense due to increasing boundary layer buoyancy associated with the passing shortwave trough. At most, visibilities may briefly fall to around one mile along the I-12 corridor. As the drier air begins to move in after 9 am, the fog will rapidly clear.

The rest of the short term period will see a building ridge axis and continued deep layer subsidence be the dominant players in the forecast. This will lead to mostly clear skies, lower humidity, and continued warmer than average temperatures through Sunday night. Highs will easily climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s away from the coast and the low to mid 70s along the coast. Lows will dip into the 50s each night. These values are a good 5 to 10 degrees above average.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Through Wednesday, a broad and deep ridge axis will keep warmer than average temperatures and suppressed rain chances in place. Winds will turn southerly by Monday, and this will for increasing low level humidity values. However, a strong mid-level capping inversion due to the warming aloft from continued upper level subsidence will keep deeper updrafts from forming. At most, a scattered to broken strato-cumulus field will form each day as temperatures warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Increasing low level humidity will also keep overnight lows in the 60s each night in the long term period, and conditions will be ripe for multiple nights of sea fog to form as water temperatures are in the lower 60s offshore. This fog will advect onshore on the back of the light southerly flow in place each night and will likely linger into the mid-morning hours each day before clearing. The fog is not in the forecast at this time, but is something to be prepared for as we move into next week.

Thursday will see the ridge axis shift to the east a bit, and this will allow a weak southern stream shortwave trough to slip through the region. The increased forcing will combine with decent instability due to the warm temperatures in place to produce scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. A low end chance PoP of around 30 percent is in place for Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A thin line of showers and thunderstorms is still expected to develop along a weak frontal boundary slipping through the area tonight. The latest high resolution model guidance has the best instability and the greatest threat of storms over ASD and GPT around 12z to 15z this morning where IFR visibility impacts of 1 to 3 miles are mentioned. Elsewhere, the threat is a bit lower, but showers will impact all of the terminals with some periods of MVFR visibility restrictions between 06z and 15z. A mix of TEMPO and PROB30 groups are in the forecast to reflect this risk. Another concern will be low ceilings of 300 to 800 feet impacting all of the terminals over this same time period of 09z to 15z. There may also be a period of IFR fog that forms at BTR, HDC, and ASD during this same time period due to moisture pooling in advance of the front, but the low stratus threat is higher than the fog threat. After 15z, conditions will improve as the front and line of convection pushes further to south. VFR conditions are expected at all of the terminals by 18z.

MARINE

Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Outside of showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a cold front tonight through Friday, conditions will be generally benign across the coastal waters. The only other concern will be potential for fog to develop, mainly tonight, ahead of the front as high dewpoint air interacts with cool shelf waters. As the front moves into the northern Gulf late Friday, winds will become offshore, but should remain well below headline criteria. High pressure will move quickly eastward over the weekend with winds becoming easterly again by Sunday and southeasterly as early as Monday morning. Additional fog concerns may arise next week as conditions look favorable for an extended period of sea fog development starting Monday night.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.