textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the next several days. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle.

- Heat stress will be an impact throughout the forecast period with near heat advisory conditions each afternoon. The hottest timeframe looks to be the latter half of this week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Not as much activity as we thought there would be yesterday. This may have been due to the amount of cover from cloud debris left keeping heating to a min, and since buoyancy is our main forcing, thermals would not be as effective at producing storms. That could be one explanation. Today should be a lot like yesterday. But again, if cloud debris is left from the nocturnals this morning, it may struggle to get things going with daytime heating. This is how the normal precip distribution works in the summer here. If there is not enough heating, the storms won't follow. Not much difference for Wed but PW values will fall a bit causing precip numbers to ease. This should remain the case through Fri with only a few less storms, but there will still be enough around to pay attention to. All variables for strong/severe storm wording will remain as well for each day.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Going into the weekend there will be a weak H5 ridge over the western Atlantic and northern Gulf. This will continue to promote slightly above average temperatures across much of the southeast. However, being on the western periphery of this ridge will also place our area in a more active southwest flow aloft, which with correctly timed upper impulses within the flow will continue to enhance the potential for afternoon showers and storms, especially during peak heating over our landbased zones (overnight and morning over the marine zones). The best QPF signal appears to be slightly displaced to our north where a more pronounced weakness resides over the midsouth, however, we will likely see some modest upper support with plenty of surface triggers around (mesoscale boundaries) to keep at least some coverage of convection despite the weak ridge in somewhat close proximity.

Bottom line...little change from the first few days of the forecast. Temperatures a few degrees above normal with scattered afternoon showers and storms. Based on forecast dew points, if there's a day where Heat Advisories might be necessary, it's Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Coverage was not very widescale yesterday and today should be alot like that. The TSRA that are around today will be timed in PROB30 and TEMPO groups. All activity will begin to decay with the loss of daytime heating. Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Winds will remain from a WSW direction through much of the week and speeds will remain mostly around 10kt but a few days could rise to near 15kt. Winds shift to due south then to the southeast by the end of the week but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, mostly during the morning hours. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.