textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Daily scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors.

- The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values will still approach advisory criteria each day by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Tonight through Wednesday, upper level ridging will remain in place over the area to the west, and we will enter the "ring of fire" pattern. Southerly surface winds will continue to help advect warm air and moisture into the area, increasing the humidity across the region. Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will be expected for the next few days, but especially tomorrow as a lingering weakness influences the area. These storms where they occur will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40- 50mph). These storms are not expected to be severe, based on recent model trends.

The heat continues as ridging builds back over the area. Highs in the upper 90s to low 100s combined with heat index values in the 105-112 degrees range will be quite warm and uncomfortable. Given the uncertainties with cloud cover for Monday, we held off on issuing a heat advisory for now. It will be looked at again on the next forecast cycle. Tuesday and Wednesday will be hot and advisories may be needed. Be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors. MSW

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

High pressure begins to break down over the area for the rest of the workweek into next weekend. Southerly surface winds will continue to advect warm and moist air into the region, increasing humidities for the area. Daily scattered showers or storms will be possible during peak heating hours as we return to a more normal summertime pattern. The main risk with these storms where they occur would be frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph). The heat will linger with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values in the 105-110 degree range, it will be quite uncomfortable outside. So, be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending time outdoors. MSW

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The main concern will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving into the area during the mid to late afternoon hours Monday. Some of these showers and thunderstorms will have potential to become strong to locally severe. Expect thunderstorms to affect each terminal at some point Monday afternoon. For the time being have included only tempo groups for thunderstorms with winds of 15kt and mvfr vis but as confidence in timing and intensity increase, these forecasts will continue to be refined.

MARINE

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.