textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

- One last morning of freezing conditions this go around this morning but we will quiockly warm up after sunrise.

- The next chance for rain remains overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning as another cold front approaches and moves into the local area. Rain totals are currently forecast to be less than one inch and no significant impacts are expected.

- Following the cold front, there will be potential for freezing temperatures again Thursday and Friday morning, mainly along/north of the I-10/12 corridor. Strong winds in the wake of the cold front will also lead to hazardous conditions across the coastal waters.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1154 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Temps plummeted during the evening as expected and they were quickly approaching the forecast lows but finally began to slow down and some have been bouncing back and forth a few degrees the last 2 hours. Still expect to see most locations drop another 1- 2 degrees but overall most of the cooling is probably coming to an end.

The next 36 hours will be quiet with the region finally moderating. The biggest change will be with respect to moisture. It has been quite dry over the last week plus but finally with s/w ridging moving through tonight and breaking down the northwest flow aloft and LL return flow setting back up late this afternoon we will finally get the moisture to slowly return. This will be just ahead of the next cold front which will bring some rain back to the area. Prior to that we will see highs today about 15 degree warmer than yesterday with upper 50s to lower 60s expected and then on Tuesday highs will be in the 60s with a few locations possibly hitting 70. Morning lows will also be a good 10-15 degrees warmer Tuesday morning thanks to the increase in moisture.

The pattern will start to re-amplify Tuesday. The deep L/W trough that brought us our recent shot of cold air will continue to slide east into the Atlantic and as mentioned earlier a s/w ridge will move across the region tonight. This kind of helps flattening everything out over the Gulf and southern Plains but on Tuesday we will see a Rex block take shape over the west coast and as it strengthens and the next strong disturbance tries to round the ridge and work southeast we will see mid lvl start to amplify once again. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1154 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Main forecast concern is the cold front Wednesday but overall we are mainly talking about rain with it and some light to moderate freezing conditions Thursday and Friday mornings. Otherwise the forecast is quite benign. There are some questions about a possible backdoor cold front overnight Friday/early Saturday but that is about 5-6 days away and with no real good handle on this yet we will stick with the NBM for now.

Heading into Tuesday night the Rex Block will still be firmly in place across the Pacific coast and west of the Baja while the L/W trough starts to take shape over the eastern CONUS. Tuesday night our cold front will be just northwest of the region and should start to move into the CWA around sunrise. Still tend to think this front may be a little slower to move into and through the area given that a strong s/w will be crossing the Continental divide overnight and into far western TX by late Wednesday morning. This will just cause the L/W trough to hang back and dig over the southern Plains and into the western Gulf Wednesday with the trough axis not moving through the Lower MS Valley till Wednesday night/early Thursday. The sfc low will also be broad and filling Wednesday while the front will have more of a ENE-WSW orientation under mostly zonal flow aloft. This really doesn't scream quickly moving cold front. With that the temps forecast is really the most difficult part right now mainly due to timing. If the front is only 3-6 hours slower the morning lows Wednesday will be substantially warmer across the northwestern portions of the CWA where the NBM thinks the front will be moving through or already moved through. Again like the previous night will use a mild blend of the NBM and NBM 75 over the CWA bumping morning lows across the northwest up a little but leaving the highs alone for now mainly because we will likely see numerous to widespread light showers out ahead of the front. As for the rain, moisture finally increases across the region as as lift increases overnight along with the approach of the front we will see rain move back in and that rain along with mostly cloudy to overcast skies will definitely help keeps highs on the cooler side even if the front is slower.

The cold front moves through Wednesday with the trough axis moving through the night. Cooler and drier air work back into the region with cold air advection being the main driver Wednesday night and likely leading to the northern half/3rd of the CWa dropping below freezing again. Northwest flow over the area will keep us quite, cool, and dry Thursday with Thursday night providing maybe one more night during this stretch of freezing temperatures but likely just the northeastern 33rd of the CWA.

Heading into Friday and the weekend ridging to our west should help to warm things up a tad but with a rather amplified L/W trough over the eastern 3rd of the CONUS and deep cold air working south there are some indications that we may see a backdoor cold front slide in overnight Friday or early Saturday. That said it won't bring anything like what we have been dealing with but it would help keep highs in the 60s through the weekend and possibly another light to moderate freeze for portions of the area Sunday morning. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR this cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1154 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

High pressure has settled over the region and winds have relaxed. As high pressure starts to push east of the area later today we will begin to see light return flow. By tonight low pressure will begin to move across the southern Plains and into the TN Valley Tuesday afternoon. At the same time the sfc high will be centered over FL leading to moderate to strong onshore flow with the possibility of needing SCS or low end SCY headlines. The cold front will then slide across the area Wednesday bringing winds back out of the northwest and gusty and SCY headlines are likely by Wednesday afternoon/evening. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ056>060- 064>068-077-087>090.

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ076-079- 080.

GM...None. MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ083>088.

GM...None.