textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the work week with potential for at least patchy dense fog Friday morning.

- Next substantial rain will be late in the week and into the weekend as a cold front approaches and moves through the local area. Rain totals should remain fairly low most places, and likely will not result in much, if any, drought relief.

- A significant cool down is forecast Sunday into the beginning of the next work week. The coldest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions for some northern areas. Those with sensitive vegetation should keep an eye on the forecast, especially given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their cool season dormancy.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Tonight into Friday morning, some patchy dense fog will be possible, looking at the models. One of the biggest questions will be how calm the wind can get overnight. The model probabilities of fog overnight are generally low (10-20%), and in the models, the fog looks to be greater than 1-2 SM, so a dense fog advisory was not issued for overnight into Friday morning.

An upper level system approaches the area and stalls to our northwest on Friday afternoon/evening before pushing through the area with a frontal system on Saturday. Scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected Friday during peak daytime heating hours. These may have lightning, but are not expected to be severe. Some light to moderate rain will occur within any popup showers, but overall rain chances are low (20-30%). The main line of storms pushes through the area late Saturday into Sunday. Looking at the models, the system is fairly weak overall still in recent trends. Severe weather is not likely for our area, but we could see some strong storms as it moves through with gusty winds (30-50mph) and lightning. In terms of the rainfall, we are generally expecting less than an inch of rainfall for the system as it pushes through late Saturday into Sunday. MSW

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

On the backside of the frontal system, cold air advection will bring cold temperatures and drier conditions into the area. Low temperatures on Monday will be in the mid to upper 30s with highs in the mid 50s. Currently, low temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low 30s with some locations forecast to see temperatures approaching freezing, mainly for areas north of I-10/12. These trends have been a bit warmer today than the models yesterday. After Tuesday, we start to see a warming trend next week. Little to no rainfall is expected next week. MSW

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Conditions will drop to LIFR and IFR at all area airports for a few hours around daybreak due to lower visibilities and ceilings from fog conditions. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

As high pressure continues to shift eastward, a moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will persist through the end of the week. Patchy dense fog will will also be possible each night/morning through at least Friday. A strong cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in again behind it. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will cause winds to strengthen and turn offshore again Saturday night with small craft advisories likely necessary through at least Sunday evening.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.