textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 151 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Scattered showers and storms are forecast throughout the forecast period. The overall severe weather threat will be low, but one or two storms could become strong to severe.

- Primary threats with storms will be strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding.

- Above normal temperatures expected most of the 7-Day forecast period. Afternoon heat indices will generally range from 100 to 108 degrees. Heat Advisories have been issued for portions of the region on Labor Day.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Going into the afternoon, isolated showers have been difficult to find across the CWFA. CAMs have been spot on again similar to yesterday with the coverage of convection. PWs are a little lower today with a bit drier air moving into the region. That said, although more isolated showers and storms will remain possible this afternoon and evening as well as through much of the short term period.

Going into Labor Day, did need to issue a heat advisory for all but Harrison and Jackson Counties as dew points may mix out over those regions a bit more effectively. Still lowered dew points just a bit over the region similar to the prior forecast for Monday, but we will manage to make heat advisory thresholds for much of the CWFA. There is still a bit lower confidence given timing of convection and stronger mixing during the afternoon, but locations especially east will likely have no issue hitting those thresholds.

By Tuesday and going into midweek we will continue to monitor a weak backdoor cold front that will eventually stall over our southeast MS Counties or perhaps just upstream over AL. Ahead of the front moisture pooling will likely keep RH values a bit higher with a bit higher POPs as well. Overnight, especially where we get rain and with assistance from moisture pool ahead of the front, some patchy fog will also be possible. That goes for any morning for locations the receive rainfall the previous afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures through the short term will remain well above average with the highest temperatures occuring on Monday/Labor Day. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Going into the long term there will be a start a synoptic change. ALoft the upper ridge is suppressed and pushed south and east over the western Atlantic. This will allow for a weakness to develop in the mid and upper levels over our region. Globals and their respective ensembles are in fairly good agreement regarding this pattern swap. At the surface going into the weekend a surface cold front will start to move southward across the MS and TN River Valleys. The ECM is a little less bullish with this feature than the more progressive GFS. The GFS brings the front down and stalls over our region where the ECM stalls this feature over northern MS and AL. Regardless, there continues to be a strong QPF signal within the guidance, especially during the afternoon. With the increase in rain chances and cloudiness, temperatures will remain a bit lower than earlier on in the week. However, still appear to be above average through the medium range. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Mainly VFR through this afternoon and into this evening. PROB30s for convection were used for terminals along and north of I10/12 respectively. This should clear around sunset and should be limited in coverage this afternoon. Going into tonight and early Monday some light patchy fog will be possible along and north of the I10 corridor. This should dissipate an hour or two post sunrise. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Mostly benign marine conditions through the forecast period as the pressure gradient remains on the weaker side across the local waters and tidal lakes. Mariners can expect winds generally at or less than 10 knots and seas generally 1 to 2 feet. Convection, mostly overnight will continue through the week. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around convection. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077- 083-086.

GM...None.