textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

- Widespread dense fog is expected tonight and on Christmas Eve night. Commuters and holiday travelers are urged to allow extra time to their destinations. With local bonfires planned Christmas Eve night there is a chance that very localized super fog could develop where those bonfires reside. - Above average temperatures continue with daytime highs mostly in the upper 70s and quite possibly reaching the low 80s with overnight lows around 60 degrees.

- Next cold front and chance of rain will be due into the region early next week with a brief cool down expected behind the front.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Not to sound like a broken record, however, the same story different day (which usually is more of a summertime thing) cliche can be used here. Upper level ridging has developed over the region with a 590dam H5 ridge over the region helping promote a warmer than average temperatures across the region. At the surface, light easterly or southeasterly winds continue to bring in slightly higher dewpoints allowing for marine fog to develop and slowly move inland overnight. Speaking of fog, tonight will be pretty much a slam dunk for fog across the region with the stagnant low level flow inland helping radiational fog to form and right along the adjacent coasts some advection fog may drift in from the local waters. Continued the dense fog advisory through tonight and into tomorrow with no changes since the last updated package early this morning. Otherwise, Christmas Eve looks to remain well above average with only the immediate MS Gulf Coast being a touch cooler given the cooler waters over the MS Sound and a slight onshore flow. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Going into late week, the pattern doesn't change at least immediately. Upper ridge still resides over the region. Surface high still lingering over the northeast Gulf. However, surface flow will eventually start to veer to a more southerly or southwesterly direction. Up until this point, fog is a solid bet across the region. However, this wind shift adds a bit more uncertainty in terms of fog probs going into the weekend. Still think some advection fog will be possible as continued moist/warm air moves over a cold surface of water. However, the inland extent or development of radiational flow is in question with the flow gradually increasing.

In terms of the synoptics some changes do take place in the upper levels as the ridge begins to flatten. At that point later into the weekend, eyes begin to shift upstream as a broad scale trough begins to amplify over the central and eastern US. This parent trough will send a cold front southward toward our region. Along and head of the front will be our next potential for rainfall. Globals vary in terms of strength and timing as well as overall QPF so there is still some time to watch and iron out the exact details. However, it's becoming increasingly likely that cooler weather is on the way for the last few days of the calendar year. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Sky conditions have mostly cleared this afternoon with VFR conditions across the board. This will continue into the early evening, however, additional VIS/CIG reductions are expected for all local terminals overnight tonight and through much of Wednesday morning. IFR or lower conditions are highly likely during this time. Eventually, toward the end of the cycle conditions should begin to improve. As for winds, generally east at or less than 10 knots. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

As we continue into the week, a strong dome of high pressure dominates the region leading to easterly winds at 5-10 kt. There is also a signal for fog through the week and there will likely be additional marine dense fog advisories, especially right along the coast. The next front is due into the region early next week. Look for winds to be on the increase very late in the period with this feature. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 57 74 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 58 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 55 73 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 60 73 58 73 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 57 72 54 70 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 55 74 52 72 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071- 076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ530-550-552-555-557.

Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-538.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ550-552-555-557.

Dense Fog Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ534-536-538.