textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors.

- The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values may still approach advisory criteria each day before thunderstorms develop by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Upper ridging continues to be parked over New Mexico, and doesn't look like it is going to budge much for the next few days. It may drift a bit west to the Arizona state line by Saturday morning. That may be just far enough west to allow a MCS to move through the area late tonight and Thursday with at least borderline potential for wind damage and heavy rainfall. It's this particular impulse that gives the most concern with excessive rainfall. Not enough confidence for Flood Watches, yet.

Today, Friday and Saturday are going to look a lot like each other regarding thunderstorms. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day, but not everyone will see storms each day.

High temperatures will get back into the mid and upper 90s today before storms start developing. Today will be the hottest day the rest of the month, as the eastern end of the ridge will be over us. Storm development probably won't occur until after we get beyond noon each day. That'll still allow us to get into the 90 to 95 range in most of the area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

By the second half of the weekend, the upper low over eastern Canada will shift eastward and ridging will try to build in underneath it across the southeastern CONUS. At the same time, much of the guidance envelope now indicates a plume of deep tropical moisture will slide into the northern Gulf and into the local area. This is a relatively big change from yesterday's forecast, but not far from what was carried in the afternoon forecast package.

Suffice it to say, there's more than normal uncertainty going into the extended given the big shift in the last 24 hours. If this trend holds, though, Sunday and Monday could be quite wet with potential for locally heavy rain. By Tuesday, the axis of deeper moisture moves a bit away from the area, though there should still be enough moisture in place to result in scattered showers and storms.

Will continue to monitor trends and expect the forecast to undergo additional adjustments as the situation becomes clearer.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The main aviation concern will continue to be daily showers and storms. Ongoing convection should wane in the next couple hours as they lose the support of daytime heating. Can't rule out fog around sunrise, but not confident in where heavier rain fell, light fog will be possible around daybreak and have included TEMPO groups at a few terminals to cover this. Going into Wednesday, expect convection to begin firing after 18z, with the most likely timing of any impact during the mid to late afternoon hours. With uncertainty in exact timing 24 hours out, have included TEMPO or PROB30 groups for gusty winds and MVFR conditions associated with thunderstorms. Although it's likely a few terminals will see IFR conditions and stronger winds than advertised, exact timing and location of the strongest storms is not confident enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Another round of convection could possibly arrive in our CWA around 09z Thursday, which will necessitate a further mention in the next round of terminal forecasts later this morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and varying between southerly and westerly will predominate through the week. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.