textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Wind speeds will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range mainly over open gulf waters keeping small craft headlines to be posted. - Minor coastal flooding is likely along sections of the Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Ridging from the NE will be stubborn to move but eventually will do so. This may not be until after daylight Saturday as moiture begins to stream in at the sfc. The main thing the ridging will do is keep sh/ts from developing or moving into much of the CWA until the ridge backs off enough to allow this, which looks to be closer to late morning or noon Sat. Most of the activity will be hit and miss Sat and Sun with none of it looking severe at the moment. As this feature moves east we will dry out again for Monday. Coastal flood advisories have been posted for areas expected to have flooding due to king tides and easterly winds that have been activie for days on end now. Flooding levels will be less than a foot over normally dry areas near the coast.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Going into midweek next week the globals have come better in line with timing and strength of the next system expected to impact our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The region will reside under active southwest flow on the eastern periphery of the H5 trough digging over the Red River Valley. At the surface stronger onshore flow is expected to develop, which should continue to advect plenty of warm moist air into the region. GFS, ECM, and GEM all have the front passing through the region early Wednesday morning. As it does, a line of convection is forecast to move through the CWFA. Instability at this time looks to be a bit marginal. However, jet dynamics are supportive of convection continuing as the line marches eastward through the early morning hours. The front and associated convection appears to be on the transient side, so hydro concerns appear minimal, especially considering dry antecedent conditions. However, with the strong lift, modest instability, and increasing H85 jet/low level shear, expect a typical cool season severe environment to evolve. Usually in this type of pattern severe hazards such as strong wind gusts, QLCS mesovorts, and even a couple of low topped supercells with a few tornadoes are not out of the realm of possibility. This will continue to be monitored through the weekend. Winds behind the system will shift northward on Wednesday with some gradual clearing taking shape through the end of the period.

As for temperatures expect above average on Tuesday and Tuesday night with plenty of warm moist air spreading northward from the Gulf. That said, the front and associated airmass behind the front, despite the overall robust strength will be more Pacific based, meaning temperatures will cool, but mostly cool to more average or slightly below with little Canadian/Arctic influence Wednesday and Thursday. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR through this cycle. Cigs are expected to start moving inland today but will remain at VFR levels. No sh/ts within this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters through the upcoming weekend and into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However, the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Smaller craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the open Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for east facing shores starting through the weekend. There will be some passing showers and a few thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through, but no significant impacts to maritime activities are expected from the weak thunderstorms that do develop.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078- 091.

GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for MSZ086-087.

GM...None.