textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 119 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Flash flooding risk each day this week starting Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The upper level ridge draped across the Gulf States is quickly eroding aloft today as a broad upper trough digs southward from Canada. The base of that trough looks to reach roughly the southern Central Plains/Appalachian Mountains latitude this afternoon. Subsidence over the CWA should still be sufficient for one more day to hold back convection to very isolated coverage thru this afternoon.

That broad upper level trough will continue digging southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight, helping push a weak frontal boundary into the forecast area. The boundary is expected to slow as it moves into the region. PW's will be drastically increasing from near 1.8" currently into the 2.2-2.4" range, which is near or above the upper end of mid-June climatology for the area. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase near and north of the boundary overnight. CAMs suggest a ramp up of coverage starting after 06Z tonight in SW Mississippi. Instability will be limited compared to daytime values, but the very moist column and warm-rain processes will support efficient rainfall production. The main concern will be localized training or repeated development along the boundary, especially where low- level convergence is maximized. The WPC Slight Risk area, depicting southwest MS and adjacent LA parishes, aligns will with HREF suite as well as global models. Widespread flash flooding is not expected at this time, but localized heavy rainfall could produce ponding of water in poor drainage and in urban areas. Training along the front will be the main concern going into sunrise Monday through mid morning. The frontal boundary is expected to become nearly stationary across the forecast area on Monday. This will keep a focused zone for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Given the deep moisture profile, storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. Areal 1-3" seems pretty likely north of I-12 and pockets of 5-8" that REFS max 6hr qpf is the greatest concern.

Convection should gradually decrease in coverage Monday late afternoon into the evening with the loss of daytime heating, but scattered showers may persist near the stalled boundary overnight. Models show a shortwave trough moving through the base of the broad scale trough Monday night into Tuesday morning. As it rounds the the trough and tracks across the CWA, height falls will again enhance buoyance and thus nocturnal convective development is expected with the boundary lingering across the region and the airmass remaining saturated. Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible where any storms train or redevelop over the same area.

MEFFER

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The remainder of the week is a bit more uncertain but leans towards continued wet pattern in general. The biggest interest peak falls on plume of moisture in the Bay of Campeche that is forecast to track through Texas from Brownsville to the Sabine Pass by the start of this portion of the forecast period. As whatever form of organization this feature is as it tracks across the region late in the week, abundant moisture will accompany it. Could see a scenario where plenty of rain falls early this week, then this system comes in and dumps even more which results in localized flash flooding along with river flooding. Obviously highly dependent on where the bulk of moisture moves through the northern Gulf Coast states.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 12 hours or so. After that though, MVFR to IFR ceilings and VIS probability will increase as a frontal boundary slowly moves in from the north today. Non- typical summertime nocturnal convection is forecast to develop from north to south after midnight. Storms will be able to produce frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall which could drop VIS down to VLIFR if a cell is right over a terminal.

MEFFER

MARINE

Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

High pressure over the eastern Gulf and Florida will continue to dominate the coastal waters into the start of the new week. As a result, a steady south to southeasterly flow will persist, with winds generally around 10 to 15 knots. These conditions will keep seas near 2 to 4 feet across the open Gulf waters, while the sounds and tidal lakes remain closer to 1 to 2 feet. By Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary is expected to settle near the area and eventually stall, bringing a more unsettled pattern with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Winds may also trend a bit higher at times through at least midweek. The tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf is expected to move inland over Mexico then northward near the Texas coast by mid-week. The interaction between the weak low to the west and the strong high to the east will cause winds to increase from east to west over the entire gulf. Locally, winds will increase into advisory criteria by Wednesday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.