textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 104 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- A slight risk for severe weather exists this afternoon into early Thursday morning over southwest Mississippi where a few storms could become strong to severe and capable of damaging winds, hail up to 1", and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

- A marginal risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall exists across much of south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana in association with a stalling cold front. Damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall leading to street flooding are the primary concerns with any strong to severe storms that develop along the front.

- Additional rounds of rain, including the potential for more strong to severe storms, on Friday, Saturday, and likely concluding on Sunday. Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and severity of any storms that develop along the Gulf coast during this time period.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

The cool crisp mornings are now a thing of a past with temperature/dewpoints being right around 70. We'll be entering a bit of a pattern change where today is the first day for potential for thunderstorms, perhaps severe, for parts of our area. The overall setup hasn't changed, where there is plenty of moisture and CAPE to go around. However, the better jet dynamics still remain north where the right entrance region is centered around the ArkLaMiss region. Most guidance including high resolution CAMs (HRRR, RRFS) currently show most convective initiation either north, or along at the northern edge of our CWA in southwest MS. The greatest threats for any strong to severe thunderstorms would be damaging winds and hail. The tornado threat is overall fairly low although can't completely rule something out especially in southwest MS. Storms should generally be fairly progressive on Wednesday so not that concerned about flash flooding although some areas could get locally higher amounts just due to how efficient storms are around here. Something noteworthy to mention is some of the ML/AI guidance does show convection into the upper third of our CWA (roughly along/north of I-12). The biggest factors in that being realized will be if storms will be able to initiate on the sagging cold front in our area during the afternoon where the environment would be most ideal for severe wx. Going into the overnight hours in Wed into Thursday, showers and storms will push further south into southeast Louisiana, but the overall severe weather potential would be fairly diminished. In terms of any heavy rainfall threat, Thursday would have a better chance due to the front stalling right around our area, but again with better dynamics remaining north of us should help keep the threat on the lower end.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Well the forecast hasn't gotten any easier and the extended portion of it is just messy. The surprising thing for the past few days is the medium range models both ensemble means and operational runs are and have been in fairly good agreement and consistency hasn't been terrible with respect to the pattern. That said the sensible weather has been all over the place for this weekend and into next week. Given the uncertainty in the details and low confidence we will be sticking with the NBM for the long term portion of the forecast covering Saturday night through Tuesday.

In a new development from the previous night the models are now advertising a much stronger s/w coming into the Lower MS Valley and northwestern Gulf coast late Saturday and through Sunday morning. This is now suggesting a rather good chance of showers and thunderstorms for the first half of Mother's Day. Timing this is futile as the best chance of rain could be overnight or through midday Sunday as it will be absolutely dependent on this disturbance moving through. Models are probably struggling with this system as it is part of the closed mid lvl low currently over southern CA. This low is going to send one shot of energy across the 4 corners and into the southern Plains later today and that will be a key part of today's severe weather threat that will be mostly north and northwest of the area. Since only a piece will eject out, the main low will still be hanging back and slowly diving into the Baja. It is then expected to slowly eject ENE over the next 3 days but timing it and what helps to kick it out of the Baja is a little unknown. Because of that it is leading to lower confidence in the forecast for this weekend and early next week.

So we already mentioned the potential for decent showers and thunderstorms through the morning hours Sunday but will we completely dry out, that is highly questionable as this disturbance doesn't cleanly move through and actually leaves the area under mostly zonal flow. The reason for that is because the L/W trough axis is still back to the WNW with another s/w dropping SE through the southern Plains. This would likely lead to additional scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and into Monday. We may finally start to dry out some late Monday but there could be another weak/subtle disturbance dropping through the Lower MS Valley late Monday possibly squeezing out just a few more light showers.

Overall, not seeing any major impacts but can't rule out some. It doesn't look like a severe weather event at all but with a decent disturbance working in from the west Saturday night we can not completely rule out a few over zealous storms. Also nothing suggesting a major flood risk either but with moderate to brief locally heavy rain there is always that threat of seeing isolated flash flooding if the storms fall over the wrong areas. /CAB/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Current conditions are a mixture of VFR down to MVFR. Most terminals will bounce around in this range. Winds will remain a bit elevated today with slight chances of showers and storms this afternoon into the overnight hours , especially for terminals north of Lake Pontchartrain. Any terminals impacted by storms could see strong winds and lower visibilities.

MARINE

Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Southerly winds will continue for the coastal waters today, generally around 10 to 15 knots. A few spots could get above 15 knots so opted to put small craft exercise caution headlines for interior lakes and sounds. A few spots in the outer coastal waters could technically reach at or above 15 knots briefly but it only is for a rather short window. Winds will then become more light and variable as a weak front stalls at or near the coast Thursday. This front will dissipate around Friday and onshore winds will return. There will be daily chances of showers and storms starting Wednesday through the rest of the week. Any of the stronger storms could cause locally higher winds and waves/seas, along with potential for waterspouts.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.