textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions will persist through much of the week. Winds and seas will be highest on Wednesday and Thursday. Inexperienced mariners and those operating small craft should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. - A prolonged period of strong easterly winds could result in minor coastal flooding of east-facing shores including Waveland and Shell Beach on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons during high tide cycles. This would result in upwards of 1 foot of water inundating low-lying roads near Shoreline Park and Venetian Isle.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A cool start for many this morning with locations along and north of I10/12 dropping off into the 40s. Along the southshore, upper 50s and lower 60s were common with the wind off the lakes. Today can be mostly characterized as a dry day with mostly dry northwesterly flow aloft and still a ENE surface flow over the region. Going into Wednesday, this pattern begins to change with the surface high pressure moving off the coast of New England allowing for the surface flow to become more easterly with a quasi onshore flow developing for the southern tier parishes. Moderate to strong low level flow will start to pile water up against the eastern facing shores and eventually draw water into the tidal lakes leading to the potential for minor coastal flooding going into late week. Guidance has decreased a bit for today and needing more easterly fetch and time decided to hold off on any Coastal Flood headlines for this tide cycle, but with strengthening low level easterly flow, a statement or advisory will be likely going into the tide cycles through the end of the week as guidance has minor coastal flooding for Waveland as well as Shell Beach areas.

Thursday the more moisture rich low level flow as well as surface mesoscale boundaries could help trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity with the best QPF signal along and south of I10/12 corridor. Outside of this slight uptick in POPs, the short term looks mostly dry from a rainfall standpoint. Otherwise, with heights gradually increasing and low level return flow, expect a modest warming trend to continue. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

As we come off of high tide Friday evening/night, impacts should begin to ease as the astronomical tide levels drop moving toward a neap tide cycle and winds concurrently also begin to ease slightly. Based on the latest probabilistic guidance it looks like by Saturday high tide levels across the open coast should be dropping below advisory levels. The one potential concern could be in more protected areas where minor/nuisance flooding may persist for an extra day or two due to slower drainage.

Otherwise, no significant concerns in the extended forecast as the local area will be under the influence of at least weak ridging aloft. Disturbances moving through the mid level flow look to ride the ridge northwest of the local area, keeping rain chances generally low and temperatures warmer than normal. (DM)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions through the cycle. Main story will be gusty winds in excess of 20 knots at times for MSY, NEW, and perhaps GPT, especially during the afternoon hours today. Winds should relax a bit soon after sunset. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A strong area of high pressure positioned across the eastern U.S. will provide a persistent easterly fetch across the coastal waters through the entire week. This will keep marine weather conditions hazardous for inexperienced mariners and operators of small crafts through much of the week and small craft headlines are already in effect. The highest winds and seas are likely to be on Wednesday and Thursday where sustained winds will be 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to potentially gale force cannot be ruled out , especially east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Wave heights in the unprotected open waters will also approach 8 to 12 feet during the peak of these winds. Hazardous marine conditions are likely to persist through Friday before gradually relaxing into the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.