textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 609 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
- Conditions will remain somewhat favorable for the spread of fires through the remainder of this week due to low humidity and drought/abnormally dry conditions across most of the area. - Conditions will remain hazardous to small craft across most coastal waters in southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi due to moderate to strong winds and high waves/choppy to rough seas. Small craft advisories and/or exercise caution headlines will remain in place through at least Tuesday morning for most coastal waters.
SHORT TERM
(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
The short term is mostly going to be a temperature and moisture forecast as POPs remain limited given the dry air mass and subsidence from a nearby upper ridge. At the surface, pressure gradient will start to relax going into Tuesday and Wednesday, which will help bring winds along the coast down at or below 10kts. Also, considering the overall trends continued to bring RH/Dew Points down through much of the short term as guidance has been a bit more optimistic with low level moisture. Although critical fire weather conditions are lacking winds, a few fires wouldn't be impossible through the short term, especially the northwestern portions of the CWFA where drought and the lowest RH values exist. Otherwise, a warming trend will continue as upper ridging eventually centers closer to the region, although overnight lows will remain comfortably in the 50s and 60s respectively. (Frye)
LONG TERM
(Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Dry northerly flow aloft will continue, which will keep POPs near 0 percent through the medium range. Upper ridging over Texas will begin to move east closer to our region again helping keep afternoon highs above average. Low level moisture will remain limited, which could provide an issue again for fire weather concerns, especially on Sunday as the surface flow is expected to increase with the pressure gradient between high pressure over the northeast and lower pressures over the western Caribbean tightens up. Overnight lows will remain comfortable. (Frye)
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Although there was a little more cloud cover than expected today, bases were high enough to allow VFR flight. Most of those clouds appear to be dissipating, and expect VFR conditions to continue through the forecast period.
MARINE
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026
Easterly winds will continue to gradually ease through midweek. Even with some improvement, offshore wind speeds will remain elevated, so advisory and exercise caution headlines will remain necessary across portions of the coastal waters through Tuesday. By late in the week conditions should become more benign with winds and seas easing below headline criteria across all waters. With persistent easterly flow, seas will remain elevated as an easterly swell develops. (Frye)
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ551-553-554- 570-572-575-577.
MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ553-554-570- 572-575-577.
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