textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Temperatures will remain around 10-15 degrees through the weekend and into the middle of next week. Highs for most areas expected to approach near or surpass record highs, along with the potential for record warm lows for some locations. - A decaying frontal boundary will approach the area from the northwest on Sunday morning bringing a higher chance for strong storms, a few of which could be severe. Uncertainty remains regarding how far south this boundary will get and the mode of severe weather, if any, that would be associated with it in our area.

- Fog development could occur along the immediate shelf waters especially near the Mississippi Sound, Lake Borgne, and northern Lake Pontchartrain tonight which could move onshore into adjacent coastal land areas.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 924 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Southerly surface winds will help to advect warmer and more humid air into the area over the next few days ahead of an approaching frontal system. Moisture will also increase as a result. Scattered storms will be expected in the afternoon and early evening hours Friday and Saturday afternoons. These storms are not expected to be severe, but some lightning and gusty winds (30-50mph) could be possible.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 80s across the area Friday and Saturday and lows near 70. Additionally, some patchy dense fog will be possible Friday and Saturday mornings, especially for the MS Coastal areas. MSW

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday night) Issued at 924 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Saturday night through Monday, a frontal system will move through the area and linger, enhancing rain chances for the area. The bulk of the rainfall looks to be on Sunday, given current model trends. Generally, the system weakens as it approaches and moves through the area. There are still quite a few uncertainties with this system given the complex upper level pattern, so we will keep monitoring. But lightning and gusty winds will be the main threats as it progresses through the area. The strength of the winds will be dependent on the strength of the system, but it seems reasonable to at least expect strong to severe winds (30-60mph) to be a concern. We will keep monitoring for changes as we get closer to the weekend.

Once this system moves through, the majority of the rest of the week looks fairly dry overall until Friday. Temperatures will remain well above average for this time of year with highs in the mid 80s still as we head toward mid-March. MSW

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Current TAFs are a mixed bag of MVFR-IFR mostly due to low ceilings but there is a little bit of fog especially for terminals east of I-55. The ceilings should begin to lift a bit after sunrise and that along with the fog should improve to MVFR-VFR by mid morning. There is some chance of showers and storms for basically all the terminals, but confidence is not the highest on that, so left PROB30s for the afternoon hours. Once tomorrow night arrives, ceilings are expected to lower along with some potential for fog again.

MARINE

Issued at 924 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Onshore southeasterly flow will persist through the rest of the week and weekend averaging generally 8-12kts with gusts 12-15kts at times. Conditions will remain favorable for areas of coastal fog for nearshore waters each morning, mainly from 10PM-10AM. A dense fog advisory is in effect for the MS Sound for the morning hours Friday. Otherwise, daily isolated to scattered shower/storm chances will persist each day closer to nearshore areas, with rain chances increasing more as we get into the weekend. Onshore southeasterly flow is expected to persist through atleast the middle of next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-536- 557.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ536-557.