textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Impactful heat conditions will persist through much of the week with the most intense heat today and Wednesday with heat indices 110-115 degrees.

- Rain chances will remain very low through Wednesday. Scattered thunderstorms should return Thursday through Saturday as the upper ridge weakens and a frontal boundary settles toward the northern Gulf Coast.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A few storms will dot the map today and Wed, but for the most part, the heat will be the main story. Heat index readings should top out today and Wed in the 110 to 115 range. The trough that is hanging up just east of the area will eventually lay to the gulf coast farther west bringing at least coastal Miss into slightly more unstable environment. But it will still take a lot of heating to get storms to ignite which means it will be after the strongest heating of the day. Chances for storms will rise a bit by Wed and that should be focused near and east of Gulfport. The boundary to our east should remain locked over coastal Miss and points north of there into the end of the week keeping precip numbers a bit higher in these areas. Some type of heat headlines will likely remain for at least the western 2/3rds of the area into the end of the week as well unless cloud cover can keep this from occurring. A frontal boundary will then begin to approach late Friday to give us our wx for the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The wet pattern increases going into the weekend as a rather robust H5 impulse moves south and east within the east coast trough. At the surface the frontal boundary will remain over the region helping provide a good amount of low level convergence and with the increasing upper support expect numerous to even widespread convection Saturday and especially into Sunday. With the area being under a northerly or northwesterly flow a late season convective complex may develop and slide through the region, which could have some gusty winds in the strongest activity. Both GFS and ECM are fairly similar in the overall synoptics and both have high rain chances going right into Monday, especially during the diurnal cycle. By this time on average most of the area would likely have picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain, which means hydro concerns will start to develop where locally high amounts fall across the region.

By Monday night the upper level feature will begin to retrograde into Texas from northern Mississippi allowing gradually for high pressure to start nosing back into the forecast area. As for temperatures, below average due to cloudiness and storm coverage. We may get close to 90 or maybe into the lower 90s especially Saturday, but this would be tough with an early convective initiation time, at least in terms of an area wide average. The good news is heat headlines are unlikely going into the upcoming weekend. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

High pressure over the southeast gulf will keep a predominantly westerly to SW flow regime through the remainder of the week. There will be the usual diurnal increase in winds over the eastern waters where winds approach and sometimes slightly exceed 15 knots during the evening and part of the overnight hours before diminishing.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056-071-091-093>097.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ057- 058-064-070-076>087-089-090-092-098>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>085.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.