textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day through the work week as an active weather pattern sets in across the local area. - While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain. Waterspouts and/or brief/weak tornadoes will be possible, mainly today and Monday.

- The heat threat will generally be low, but heat index values in some areas could still approach advisory criteria before showers and thunderstorms develop each afternoon. Those with outdoor plans/work should continue to exercise caution from late morning through the afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 702 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Started Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for much of the open waters, sounds and Lake Borgne, as we're seeing quite a few observations around 15-17 knots in those waters, and could increase a couple more knots based on guidance. Will continue to assess for midday update.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

No big changes from the ongoing fcast as wet periods look to be the future of this coming week. The rain and storms that will move into the area won't be continuous but instead in waves. This will be from a deep fetch of tropical moisture moving in with PW values 2.2+" which will drop back into the upper 1.8 to 2.0 range in between. The current sfc low in the north central gulf is interacting with the base of an upper long wave trough which can be seen very well in WV imagery this morning. It is currently moving west and this will be the first of 2+" PWs that we see as the area gets into the east side of the sfc low. The low is expected to remain weak while interacting with the upper trough and eventual upper low cutting off from the trough base today. But, as the sfc low moves west just offshore the Louisiana coast, the upper level winds weaken and conditions become slightly more favorable as move into Monday and Tuesday. The next surge looks to visit late Tue into Wed which would be the mess seen off the east coast of Florida this morning. The area even farther out to the east of the "mess" will be the next which should partner up with the remnants of Dolly as it moves near the east coast of Florida Wed. Regardless of the several disturbances that move into the gulf over the coming days, conditions are not primed for rapid development of tropical activity, but fcasts can and do change. At the moment, we definitely see deep slugs of tropical moisture making its way into our area through mid week, but unless shear values drop aloft, the trend will remain for low probs of tropical development.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Overall the medium range models and ensembles are still in agreement with an active pattern continuing through next weekend. All guidance suggest the mid lvl ridge builds east with the center of it working all the way into the the Tobacco Road region before the stalls. The ridge will be setup in a way that puts the local area and the northwestern Gulf on the southwestern periphery of the ridge which will allow for multiple tropical waves/disturbances to impact the region. NBM for the most part matches what the medium range guidance is suggesting however there are still subtle timing and placement issues and because of that we will not make any major deviations from the latest NBM.

By Wednesday night the ridge will be firmly situated to the north and northeast allowing for southeasterly flow over the northwestern Gulf coast. Easterly waves will work underneath the ridge as they move into the Gulf and then slide towards the northwest. Again there are some timing discrepancies by the next tropical after our Sunday/Monday system could be as early as overnight Tuesday or as late as early Thursday. The low lvl feature could approach earlier but looking at the moisture field and PWs it appears that would try to surge into the area late Wednesday and overnight.

The next feature to focus on appears to be the remnants of Dolly. Dolly is currently just east of the Lesser Antilles and should impact Puerto Rico in the next 24 hours with hopefully some much needed rainfall. Then it will continue to move west-northwest into the Gulf late in the work week and with the ridge still in place with southeast flow aloft those remnants could approach the region late Friday and into Saturday.

Both of these features much like the current one in the Gulf don't look to promising from a tropical development stand point but all look to bring rain and possibly heavy rain at times. Moisture will be abundant and the rain will be very efficient and if things line up in an unwanted way we could see the potential for multiple heavy rain events. We will need to closely monitor these waves over the next few days. Now as mentioned earlier this will be highly dictated by placement of the ridge, track of the any of these waves, and timing and it would not be a surprising to see quite the dichotomy across the region where the southwestern portions of the CWA see multiple inches of rain and possibly on multiple days where the northern and northeastern portions of the CWA see less than an inch overall with highs possibly in mid 90s. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

RA, TSRA and CIGS will begin to increase today over most of the area. The lowest levels for cigs will be in MVFR range intermittently trading places with VFR. RA and TSRA will be timed in prob groups through the day into the evening hours when numbers will decay.

MARINE

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

A weak surface low will move west across the north central gulf today and tonight shifting light northerly winds to light southerly which will remain through the work week. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will remain possible each day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.