textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts and some localized flooding issues are expected, mainly along and east of I-55 and especially in the coastal MS counties. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates regarding this threat. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown!

- Tide ranges are decreasing, but coastal flooding is still a borderline threat for coastal MS. Additionally, southerly winds and heavy rain will increase water levels, so a Coastal Flood Advisory is in place for coastal Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson counties from midnight tonight to 8am tomorrow morning. Again, since the highest water will be overnight and in the dark, be very cautious driving through low areas along the coast.

UPDATE

Issued at 447 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Based on current radar trends and rainfall that has already occurred, have expanded the Flood Watch as far west as Interstate 55. Areas could see several more rounds of showers and storms through tomorrow evening. No other major changes at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

We are getting into the meat of the weekend rain. We have some rainfall totals so far upwards of 2 inches with intensities up to 3 inches per hour. Still looking at overall totals through Monday morning of 2ish inches over our northwestern area and isolated amounts of up to 8 to 10 inches over coastal MS. A Flood Watch is in effect for Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties through Sunday night. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect early Sunday morning from midnight to 8am.

The outlook beyond Monday calls for some drying especially in the northern half of our area. Overall rain timing and location next week will depend on how fast and how far the front moves south into the Gulf, but we still may see some light showers along the coast.

Temperatures will rebound slightly as cloud cover breaks up a bit with the introducing of drier mid- level air over northern areas with readings rising back to average in the mid 80s both days. With drier and cooler air moving into northern areas, lows Monday night will easily dip into the mid to upper 60s north of I-10 while remaining in the lower 70s south of I-10. The days and nights will actually feel a bit like Fall for the northern third of the CWA to start the week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

In the long range, troughing behind the current frontal system will place drier air over at least the northern half of our area. Coastal areas will still see some chances for rain, depending on how far the current front pushes southward into the Gulf. By the end of the week, low pressure will be dominant over the area bringing return flow and accompanying moisture back into the area. There is also some indication that some tropical low pressure in the southwestern Gulf will bring additional moisture into the area. So, after a couple days of drier weather midweek we are looking at the possibility of another wet weekend. Throught extended period we are expecting daytime highs to remain in the 80s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Bands of SHRA/TSRA continued to move northwest across much of the area. Most terminals are prevailing VFR, but there are a few that are occasionally MVFR ceilings outside of precipitation. As SHRA/TSRA move across the terminals, impacts have been mainly MVFR ceilings and IFR or lower visibilities. Do expect widespread MVFR conditions this evening lowering to IFR (mainly ceilings) overnight. Not a great deal of improvement during the day Sunday either, and any areas that do improve are likely to be temporary improvements. TSRA will not be widespread, but could happen at any terminal, especially during the daytime hours Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A tightening pressure gradient over the coastal waters will form in response to a developing low pressure system in the western Gulf. This will allow southeast winds to remain elevated near 15 knots with higher gusts today. Very choppy seas of 4 to 6 feet will accompany these winds in the open Gulf waters. The lakes and sounds will see slightly lower winds closer to 10 knots and choppy conditions. Winds will briefly relax to 10 knots or less on Sunday as a front stalls along the coast. This front is expected to then slowly push through the waters on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will turn northeasterly behind the front and increase back to 15 to 20 knots as cooler and drier air advects over the warm waters. Another low will form along the front by Wednesday, and this should increase winds in small craft advisory range of 20 to 25 knots through the end of the week. Seas will also increase to 5 to 7 feet by Wednesday and remain at those levels through the end of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for LAZ039-058-064-070-071- 076>082-087-089>093-098>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MSZ070-071-077-083>088.

Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.