textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Continuing to monitor a tropical low over deep south Texas as it moves north and east toward the northwest Gulf Coast later this week. There is a medium chance (60%) of development. Marine and heavy rain will be the primary impacts.

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday morning for most of southeast Louisiana as well as all of southwest and coastal Mississippi.

- River flooding potential exits as well with forecast areal rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches with isolated higher amounts.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The region resides in a mostly zonal upper flow pattern as the base of the very broad H5 trough resides over the area. This has caused a frontal boundary to stall to our north and with several small impulses along the front within the mean flow, shower and storm development has been common. Overall, CAMs in many ways have struggled to identify some of the ongoing convection such as the storms south of Vermillion Bay. However, HRRR has picked up on the current development over CenLa and western portions of Mississippi. This activity looks to continue to develop and even become more numerous as the morning progresses. The LIX 16/00z RAOB shows a PWAT of 2.2" with similar all across the region. That in mind any convection that does fire will have the potential to produce excessive rainfall rates of 5" per hour or higher in some cases. Needless to say with wet antecedent conditions plus tropical rainfall rates, made no changes to the overall Flood Watch, which goes through Friday morning.

For today, looks wet. A band of convection looks to develop along and north of the I10/12 corridor and likely produce some fairly high numbers in terms of rainfall again given the tropical environment over our region currently. In additional to heavy rainfall, SPC has also placed our region in a marginal risk for severe weather with winds being the main threat...though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in this environment.

Going into midweek eyes shift to our south and west where a tropical low is forecast to move north and east toward the northwest Gulf coast through the week. High pressure over the southwest Atlantic will help tighten the pressure gradient leading to a strengthening southerly flow over the area. As the winds increase as well as the long fetch over the Gulf develops, some coastal flooding may result. Otherwise, from this system the primary impact will be heavy torrential rainfall and perhaps a strong wind gust or two in the stronger cells. As the feature continues downstream eventually over the Tennessee River Valley, it will continue to pump moisture into the region from the deep tropics again keeping the heavy rain potential going through most of the workweek.

With POPs high and cloudiness around, temperatures will be below average through much of the short term period. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

By Friday evening, the tropical system should be east of the local area, although it appears a weakness in the mid level flow will remain along the northern Gulf coast until about Sunday before shortwave ridging builds back into the area.

Precipitable water values will remain above 2 inches until the daytime hours Saturday, but won't get significantly below two inches until Sunday evening. We should see a gradual lowering of convective coverage Saturday and Sunday, with only isolated afternoon storms remaining by Monday afternoon. There may remain at least a low end threat of excessive rainfall over the weekend, but it shouldn't be a complete washout on Father's Day.

Highs likely to get in the upper 80s Friday, and a couple degrees warmer each day Saturday and Sunday, with most of the area in the

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR and MVFR conditions are ongoing across the local terminals this morning. Most of the convection from earlier has cleared, but this will only be temporary. Covered SHRA/TSRA potential through the period mostly with PROBs for TSRA. CIGs/VIS will be reduced in and around convection and winds will be a bit erratic and gusty as well, otherwise light southerly winds can be expected outside of storms. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A weak surface high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf and will continue to dominate the local coastal waters. As a result, a steady south to southwesterly flow will persist, with winds generally around 10 to 15 knots through tonight. These conditions will keep seas near 2 to 4 feet across the open Gulf waters, while the sounds and tidal lakes remain closer to 1 to 2 feet.

By early Wednesday, a tropical disturbance over the far western Gulf is forecast to track northward along the Texas coast before moving into western and central Louisiana mid to late week. The interaction between the weak tropical low to the west and the strong high to the east will cause winds to increase over the local waters due to the tightening pressure gradient. Winds over the waters will be well into the mid 20 knot range with frequent gusts above 30 knots possible. Thus, expect the need for a Small Craft Advisories during this mid/late week timeframe. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>058-064-071-076>087-089-090-092-094-096-098>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.