textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

- Patchy to areas of dense fog possible again Thursday morning. - Above normal temperatures will be in place through Friday, possibly even record breaking temperatures.

- Outside of some possible sprinkles this afternoon no rain in the forecast.

- Critical Fire Weather concerns possible Saturday behind the cold front.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday evening) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Aloft the CONUS is currently dominated by two broad features; L/W trough over the Atlantic coast while a building ridge is centered over the US/Mexico border across the 4 corners. There is still a broad weak mid lvl low located over the southwestern Gulf. Over the next 3 days the ridge west of the area will build and nudge east. The greatest impacts will be felt Thursday and Friday as the ridge builds into the area with 585ish dm hghts sliding across the area. As for today the ridge will be slow to build so mid lvl hghts will still be on the lower side around 581/582. With the slightly lower hghts, the front slowly retreating back to the north providing some weak support and an area of slightly enhanced moisture pooling, few sprinkles over the eastern portions of the area and coastal waters east of the mouth of the river are not out of the question.

The next two days will really be more about the hot temperatures. As the ridge builds east and LL temps climb a degree or two we are likely looking at highs in the mid 80s for all but coastal MS where onshore winds will likely help keep the immediate coastal sections in the upper 70s. As for records, currently the forecast is not explicitly showing any site breaking a record. Looking at a few things is the LL temps are what is being indicated the 19-21 C readings suggest lower to mid 80s and much of the area has records of 87 to 90 for both days. Another thing if we are going to have a chance of breaking some records we will need a lot to come together and another small issue is we will likely be dealing with mild to moderate cirrus streaming in from the north. The one detail that could swing towards a warmer forecast is the approach of our next front, which as of right now looks like Friday night or early Saturday. Typically there is some minor compressional heating just out ahead of front that moves into the area, especially if it occurs during the day. So if it only 3-6 hours faster there is a slight chance that the forecast could be a touch too low and highs could possibly approach 90 in select areas.

As for fog, tonight moisture will be slightly increasing however given the fact that we have had any appreciable rain in over a week and morning lows struggling to get below the mid 60s the potential for widespread, dense fog feels on the low side.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

The global models are in good agreement that a shortwave trough diving into the Mid-Atlantic states will help to slightly erode a strong H5 ridge axis extending eastward across the Gulf South from Texas and the Four Corners region over the weekend. A weak front will accompany this shortwave feature,

As the shortwave pulls away, the strong H5 ridge will once again become the primary feature impacting our weather at the start of next week. With increased drying and warming aloft, temperatures will once again turn warmer than average with daytime highs rising into the low to mid 80s and lows falling into the 60s. A strengthening mid-level inversion will keep most cloud development suppressed, but there will be enough moisture and instability beneath the inversion to produce scattered cumulus development on Monday and Tuesday. A very low 15 to 20 percent PoP is in the forecast for a few light rain showers or sprinkles that could accompany this low topped cumulus development on Monday and Tuesday afternoon. There is low confidence that any rain will actually occur on these days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Current conditions across the area are VFR. This will last through the early morning hours. For several hours around sunrise, lowered ceilings and visibilities due to low stratus and fog are likely to drive condtions to IFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

High pressure will become reestablished to the northeast tonight and through the week leading to return flow setting back up over the region. The next front will move through the region late Friday or early Saturday with strong offshore winds developing in its wake and the likelihood of needing headlines for the all waters this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible on Saturday. The cold/dry front expected to move through Friday night will be followed by dry air and higher winds. These conditions won't last long but are expected in the morning to early afternoon. Best case, the critically dry air (RH<40%) runs from about midday to mid- evening and the winds (>15 mph) from early morning to late afternoon giving an overlap of favorable conditions in the afternoon timeframe. Worst case, though, we should look at early morning to mid-evening for the timing.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.