textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 639 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather will be in place through the end of next week.

- Threat of fog increases through the weekend, mainly west of Interstate 55 and north of Interstate 12.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Upper trough off the Atlantic coast with unseasonably strong upper ridging centered near Phoenix. There is a shortwave moving toward the base of the trough that was moving through northern Louisiana and central Mississippi this morning. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the eastern Gulf. There were some lower clouds, around 2500 feet, just ahead of the shortwave over northern Louisiana that is bringing partly cloudy skies to western portions of the area. Temperatures were in the lower and middle 70s at noon CDT, and it's definitely possible that some areas will get into the 80s today.

Locally, once the shortwave over northern Louisiana crosses the area this afternoon, the upper and surface patterns aren't going to change very much through Sunday night. Dry weather and much above normal temperatures will continue. With the surface high off to our east, the southerly flow around the west side of the high will gradually increase the low level moisture. This will result in low temperatures tomorrow morning being about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than this morning, with similar readings expected around sunrise Monday. With the increased low level moisture, that may leave us a bit more prone to fog development, similar to what occurred over western Louisiana this morning. Certainly not confident enough in fog development to justify issuance of an advisory this morning, but some potential is there, and will have patchy fog mentioned for a few hours around sunrise.

Highs tomorrow should be in the lower and middle 80s across most areas. The exception would be at the immediate coast, where nearby cooler waters should top off the highs in the upper 70s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Another shortwave is expected to cross the area around Tuesday, briefly suppressing the upper ridge a bit. The passage of the shortwave will probably barely be noticeable, as about the only result might be knocking down the dew points a degree or two. The threat of rain with that shortwave is not zero, but it's pretty close to it.

There is some uncertainty introduced in the longer range for next weekend, as the most recent GFS brings a shortwave and cold front across the area next Friday night or Saturday, while the ECMWF keeps ridging across the northern Gulf Coast all weekend. The GFS solution is a break in continuity from yesterday, so we'll have to monitor that trend. It wouldn't likely result in significant precipitation, but that specific solution would bring much cooler temperatures for next weekend, along the lines of 10 to 15 degrees cooler. That would actually just take us back to where we are supposed to be in late March. We're starting to see indications of that in the NBM probabilistic numbers as the NBM deterministic is about 3 degrees lower than the 50th percentile NBM for next Saturday.

Until then, it looks like there's going to be little day to day change in temperatures, with highs in the lower and middle 80s, but cooler near the coast. Lows upper 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Fog and low stratus development will once again take place right around daybreak on Sunday as another surface based temperature inversion forms. This inversion formation is supported by light boundary layer winds, clear skies, and strong radiational cooling. Lows are projected to dip to the cross-over temperature, so dense fog will not be a concern. However, areas of light to occasionally moderate fog and low stratus will form as the inversion strengthens. BTR, MCB, HDC, and HUM have the highest chances of seeing some MVFR and potentially IFR conditions develop between 10z and 14z Sunday. MCB and HDC have the highest potential for IFR ceilings of around 500 feet to form, and these are included in the forecast. Outside of this fog and stratus threat, VFR conditions will be the rule at all of the terminals through Sunday evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Surface high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf. This will keep onshore winds in place for the next several days. While we'll see increases in wind speeds during the evenings over some of the protected waters, we don't anticipate much need for Small Craft Advisories or Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over the next few days.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.