textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon. Any storms will be very slow moving and may generate enough rain to cause localized flooding in poorly drained and low lying areas.

- Heat index values will climb to around 105 each day, but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A persistence forecast is the name of the game in the short term period as a broad upper level ridge axis centered over Florida extends westward into the Gulf South over the weekend and into early next week. Although the ridge will be over the area, there will continue to be ample moisture and instability in place to support scattered shower and thunderstorm development each day. PWATS will remain near average for the time of year between 1.9 and 2.1 inches, and each day will see MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/KG develop as temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s. As is typically seen in the Summer months, the convection will initially develop offshore in the early morning hours, usually in conjunction with a weak landbreeze boundary. As temperatures warm over land, a seabreeze will develop and the convective activity will move into coastal areas in the late morning hours and then spread further inland as the afternoon hours proceed. Once daytime heating is gone in the early evening hours, the convective activity will end. Storm motion will remain limited today at 5 mph or less, so some localized street flooding could occur as rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will occur with the strongest storms. Storm motion will increase a bit to around 10 mph for Sunday and Monday, but a quick inch of rain in an hour could still cause some minor street flooding in poorly drained areas. The storm motion will once again fall back to around 5 mph or less by Tuesday, so the localized street flooding threat will increase again. Outside of the street flooding threat, heat index values will be around 105 degrees each afternoon. Although this is not unusual heat for this time of year, continue to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in air conditioned spaces this weekend into early next week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Not a lot of change through the extended as the westerlies continue to be locked well to the north of our area, which is exactly how climatology has August playing out. The expansive high over the SW CONUS will also remain where it is but there is some signs of it bulging eastward after a Hudson Bay low kicks out to the east by mid week. This bulging eastward is what we always refer to as a ridge. The ridging will make it as far east as central TX starting mid week and it stays over that area through the remainder of the week. We should see a bit more storms firing around this ridging setting up the ring of fire type of scenario. There won't be a lot of changes for our area with respect to sh/ts percentages and heat, but to our west, it will not be comfortable at all. Under the ridge, dew pts drop to the 40s and low 50s with suppression causing temps to rage upward to 100+F. Basically very dry and very hot. We should not see a lot of difference in highs unless this ridge is not being advertised properly in current model runs. We normally do get into a few weeks of intense heat at some point during the summer and this set up may begin to hint at that later this month.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all of the terminals. The only concern will be the risk of afternoon thunderstorm development, generally peaking between 17z and 23z. If a storm impacts a terminal, a brief period of gusty winds to 30 mph, lightning strikes, reduced visibilities of 1 to 5 miles, and ceilings around 2500 feet can be expected. Any impacts will typically last 30 minutes or less. The only terminal with high enough convective chances today to warrant mention in the forecast is HUM, and a PROB30 group is included to reflect this convective risk between 18z and 21z.

MARINE

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Through the weekend and into next week, flow of up to 10 knots varying between southerly and easterly will keep seas of 1 to 2 feet in place across all of the waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up each day in the early morning hours before moving inland by the afternoon hours. These storms will produce lightning strikes, heavy downpours, a few waterspouts, and locally higher winds and waves. Overall, a very typical pattern will be in place for early August.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.