textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 602 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Partly to Mostly sunny skies are forecast today and tomorrow as rain chances remain along and offshore of the coast.

- Small Craft Advisories are in place for most of the coastal waters today through at least late Thursday. These headlines may be replaced with tropical headlines at some point.

- Tropical Storm Isaias has developed in the southern gulf and is expected to move toward the north central gulf coast as a hurricane by the end of the week. Some uncertainty remains on the exact track and strength, but potential impacts include gusty winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and dangerous waves/seas on the coastal waters.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Trop Dep #9 continues to show healthy signs of strengthening this morning and we are beginning to see the upper shear flatten the west side of the diffluent upper level outflow. This is expected and the system will move east at first as deep level flow sets up from the west. The H3 short wave that picks this system up was just offshore of the west coast at 00z Wed(7pCDT Tue) with only the H3 jet core lead making its way inland over the RAOB network. This has caused a noteable difference in the global solutions with a shift more in line with the clustering of AI and other deterministic ensemble members. The only one outlier is the EURO, but this should change as we see the short wave pulse fully sampled at 12z today. Most if not all solutions should be in much stronger agreement on this 12z run leading to much stronger confidence for at least the track.

This time of year, the westerlies are starting to win out and this causes baroclinicity to be involved with higher latitudes. So, as the system moves north eventually, we would fully expect it to start a transition to a colder core system. This does not mean much usually since wind is wind and rain is rain, but it would start to displace rain and wind values with a strong gradient in both as a dry slot would eventually form to its west. This may be after it is inland though. It also gives way to the strongest impacts being along and east of the heading axis. But just because it is being said that the strongest impacts would be along and to the east of the center does not mean there will be no impacts to the west. Most of these would be due to wind with marine and aviation impacts.

The environment will change rapidly as this tropical system moves toward the north central gulf coast, no matter if its a hurricane or weaker. The band of clouds and storms that are still lingering just offshore will quickly move inland Friday and set up in a strong west to east gradient. Then the center of the system moves through. The gradient of rain/cloud cover will depend on where the center moves through, but it could end up with the western portion of the CWA having quite nice weather but decaying rapidly as one moves east Friday and Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

As the weakening tropical system moves well inland, a dry air mass will settle into the region from the northwest. Aloft, the flow becomes zonal and eventually through the long term period an H5 ridge begins to build over the northern Gulf, which promotes not only a dry forecast, but also an above average temperatures forecast from early to mid week next week with temperatures across the western tier climbing into the lower 90s. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

All terminals will stay in VFR today and tonight. Some cigs along the coast should remain at VFR levels as well.

MARINE

Issued at 1055 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Strong high pressure across much of the Plains will keep northeasterly winds over the coastal waters. Meanwhile, the winds aloft will be from the southwest keeping an overrunning pattern that will bring scattered showers across the Gulf waters through Thursday.

Marine conditions will slowly worsen through the remainder of the week. Depending on the eventual track and strength of Tropical Depression 9, winds across the open waters are expected to rise to tropical storm or hurricane force and shift from easterly to westerly Friday into Saturday before easing.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ532-534>536- 554-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ534>536-554- 557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ543-551-553-570-572.