textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through Tuesday, and again at the end of the week. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

- A strong cold front will move through the area Thursday bringing potential for frost and the first freeze of the season for some areas mainly Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Cool mornings and warm but dry afternoons will persist, though overnight lows will moderate a bit over the next couple days as mid-level moisture moves into the area resulting in more cloud cover.

This mid level moisture is associated with the upper low currently located over northern Mexico. The low is forecast to open up and eject northeastward through the lower/middle Mississippi Valley midweek. There could be enough forcing to eke out a few light showers mainly Wednesday, but with the low levels forecast to remain pretty dry, most precipitation will likely evaporate before reaching the surface.

A stronger front will move through the area Thursday afternoon, with colder air building in behind it for the long term.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Another cold front will move through late Thu night into Fri. The front will be dry and will serve to mainly reinforce the dry cool air in place with highs Friday and Saturday generally in the low to mid 60s. The main concern will be low temperatures, especially on Saturday morning, when some areas could dip into the mid to upper 30s, mainly across inland areas. Some patchy frost will certainly be possible and while still somewhat unlikely, a few areas in the northern portions of the forecast area could flirt with freezing temperatures. Attention will then begin to focus on the development of a larger scale system over TX that will eventually move east. The high ridging over the gulf coast from the Atlantic will be stubborn to move and this may cause most of the weather associated with the sfc low to be found along and south of a stalled frontal boundary oriented NW to SE from the Texarkana region through New Orleans into the gulf to near the FL Keys. This is well out in the extended which includes next weekend, so there is a lot of time to look at this to see if it will bring our area any rainfall.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Under the influence of high pressure, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds less than 10 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1210 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Generally benign conditions will persist through the middle of the week as the area remains under the southeast flank of surface high pressure. Hazardous conditions are likely to return Thursday or Thursday night as winds strengthen again behind a cold front.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.