textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon. Any storms will be very slow moving and may generate enough rain to cause localized flooding in poorly drained and low lying areas.

- Heat index values will climb to around 105 each day, but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Typical August weather pattern continues through short term period. In the lower levels we have the western edge of high pressure controlling our conditions. In the upper levels we sit between the high pressure over the desert southwest and the western periphery of the Bermuda high. The controlling flow at both levels is northerly bringing Gulf moisture onshore and includes a small amount of lift due to upper level vorticity. The moisture and lift will bring our typical summertime popcorn storms which could be strong, but are not expected to reach severe criteria. By Tuesday night we are starting to see a conjunction of the bounding upper level highs.

So, we see temperatures ranging between the mid 70s for overnight lows to afternoon highs in the low 90s. Humidity levels are forecasted be typical and will carry the feels-like temps into the 100-105 range. Afternoon high temperatures will be dependent on exact timing and placement of any storms that pop up and drop rain on a given location. Also, if a storm does pop up it will be stationary or very slow moving, so there is a possibility of minor, localized flooding in poorly drained and low lying areas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

August weather continues on into August as we look through the end of next week. Much of the same conditions described in the Short Term discussions continue through the forecast period. We do see a indications of a dome of high pressure forming across the northern Gulf coast which shows up as slightly higher temps into the mid 90s and slightly lower dewpoints. Southerly winds will remain through the extended keeping sfc moisture available but mid level dry air will help keep PW values in the 50th to 75th percentile range, which means isolated to scattered afternoon convection looks to be the consistent trend for much of next week. However, with the pressure doming suppressing convection a bit, POPs will tend toward the isolated range.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Currently all terminals at VFR conditions. This will remain in place through the period. At the end of the period TSRA is a possibility and has been handled with PROB30 coding at MSY/NEW/HUM with other terminals having a lower chance but still a small possibility.

MARINE

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Through the remainder of the weekend and into next week, flow of up to 10 knots varying between southerly and easterly. By midweek direction will take on a southwesterly component. Regardless of direction, winds will keep seas of 1 to 2 feet in place across all of the waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up each day in the early morning hours before moving inland by the afternoon hours. These storms will produce lightning strikes, heavy downpours, a few waterspouts, and locally higher winds and waves. Overall, a very typical pattern will be in place for early August.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.