textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Warm with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week. Organized severe storms are not expected, but an isolated strong storm with heavy rain is possible. - Winds will remain elevated for marine areas and may be in and out of caution levels for the next several days.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A line of sh/ts will develop along a cold front late today over west TX. The cold front will come to an abrupt halt this evening over west TX while momemtum and cold pooling will carry the sh/ts eastward possible as far as western LA before weakening and dissipating since they will leave their support area. The weak sfc troughing we have will continue for the next several days and the left over outflow boundaries from the dissipated storm to the west will have interacted with this weak boundary by Thu pushing our sh/ts coverage higher. Today should be much like the last few days with Thu on the more widespread side of coverage. This may also be structured more east side today and west side Thu.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

By Friday the active yet modest southwest flow aloft will remain over the region. At the surface, moderate to strong return flow continues, which will help push PWAT values in excess of 1.6-1.8" respectively. With any mesoscale boundary with such a rich environment and at least some modest CAPE around, once again scattered showers and thunderstorms will possible for the CWFA during the afternoon hours. Naturally, as the sunsets late Friday activity starts to decrease.

Going into late Saturday the next cold frontal boundary will arrive from the west bringing with it with more organized showers and thunderstorms as the upper level trough spreads east across the region from the Red River/Sabine River Valley. Globals have this feature moving through the region at a fairly high pace. Synoptically, a strong storm or two would be possible, but it appears the best dynamics will be further north.

Going into early next week the globals have diverged a bit with the ECM and CMC bringing a dry and cool airmass over the region. Although on the GFS we are on the cold side of the front, it appears to stall closer to the coast and allow for isentropic upglide shower activity to develop late Sunday and early Monday just prior to the next H5 shortwave to grab the front and continue it downstream away from the region later Monday morning. This has slightly introduced some uncertainty for Sunday night and Monday. That said, behind the front it will cool down to around or perhaps slightly below average at least for a day or two. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

MVFR to IFR cigs will become all VFR by mid morning today but RA and TSRA will be around to cause tempo MVFR and IFR conditions at a few sites. Tonight will be very similar over the northern and western portion of the area but there could be more VFR conditions east.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will remain over the coastal waters today as a broad surface high over the southeastern states dominates the region. Southeast winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots Thursday as a low pressure system passes well north of the waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.