textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index values generally running in the mid 100s to near 110 through the end of the work week and then likely climbing into the lower 110's this weekend. Heat Advisories are in place for tomorrow, likely Friday and Heat Warnings likely Saturday, Sunday, and into the new week. Stay tuned. The impact of the afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal overnight lows; we just won't have a chance to cool off.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

We continue to be under a dome of high pressure. Its center is moving a bit over time, but the impacts are still the same, those being that it is hot and it is mostly dry. There is some scattered rain and thunderstorm activity along the south LA coast resulting from sea breeze driven convection. Through the rest of the short- term period drying in the atmosphere and PWs as low as 1.4 inches by Saturday make rain increasing unlikely.

The big headline for the short term is issuance of a Heat Advisory with today's forecast package that is active Thursday from 11AM to 8PM. Friday will likely see a Heat Advisory, also. Heat headlines will likely escalate to the Warning level by the weekend and into next week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

In the long term, conditions continue to be dominated by the high pressure over us. The location shifts to the west a bit, but swings back to directly over us after the weekend. So, the heat and lack-of-rain impacts we see now will essentially continue unabated through the end of the period. Unfortunately, a subtle change is a slight climb in temperatures and a return of moisture that will push heat indexes into the Heat Warning criteria.

Another item worth mentioning beyond the formal forecast period is the continued heat and lack of rain leading to a Flash Drought. This is drought conditions that are characterized by a rapid onset driven by lower-than-normal precipitation and higher-than-normal temperatures. The longer term forecast outlook shows a continuation of the hot, dry conditions.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Any convection over the next 24 to 30 hours will be extremely limited. VFR conditions are expected through the period with rather light southerly or southwesterly winds expected. NEW may see a bit more erratic with the northerly lake breeze developing Thursday Afternoon. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Generally benign marine conditions through the forecast period with high pressure mostly being in control from start to finish. Isolated nightly convection will be possible, especially over the offshore waters where locally higher winds and seas may reside around showers and storms with perhaps a waterspout or two. Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside of convection.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.