textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1052 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Sunday night sees another fairly strong front that could bring some marginally severe storms with it.

- A light freeze could impact areas along and north of I-10/12 Monday night.

- Gale conditions are forecast to impact the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday behind a strong cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The main forecast concern will be the passage of another strong cold front Sunday night. In advance of the front, a largely zonal flow regime in the upper levels will help temperatures gradually modify through the weekend. Additionally, winds will turn more southerly in the low to mid-levels starting tomorrow and continuing through the weekend. This persistent southerly flow will allow for greater moisture and higher temperatures from the central Gulf to gradually advect into the region. The end result will be lows warming from the 40s tonight to the upper 50s and lower 60s by Saturday night. Highs will also rise from the upper 60s and lower 70s on Friday to the upper 70s and lower 80s by Sunday afternoon. The dry air in place on Friday and Saturday will keep skies largely clear, but as moisture deepens Saturday night into Sunday, cloud cover will be on the increase. In fact, as the warm and moist air moves over the cooler waters Saturday night into early Sunday, cloud cover will advect in and turn skies mostly cloudy. Winds should remain elevated enough to prohibit any fog from forming. During the day on Sunday, skies will range between partly to mostly cloudy as southerly flow increases in advance of a deepening low and approaching strong cold front over the Midwest.

Focusing on Sunday night, the strong cold front will quickly sweep through the region. As the front moves through, a band of convection will accompany the frontal passage, and this convection could be strong to severe at times. This is due to both favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions in advance of the front. In terms of dynamics, shear will peak between 03z and 09z as a 40 knot low level jet forms over the northern half of the CWA. Effective bulk shear will be between 35 and 40 knots and 0-3km helicity values will peak between 200 and 300 m2/s2. These values are supportive of both straight line wind and tornadic development within the line of storms, and the conditions suggest that another QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) event will impact the region. Much like the past two QLCS events experienced recently, brief and weak tornadic spinups and periods of rear inflow jet intrusions will produce sporadic wind damage. Areas north of the I-10 corridor look to have the highest risk of these conditions currently. The thermodynamic support will also be there with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7.5C/km in place and MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/KG expected. Strong updrafts will easily form under these conditions and the bulk shear in place will support tilted updrafts that will allow the line to maintain itself over land and as it moves offshore. It will also turn breezy ahead of the front with southwesterly winds of 20 to 25 mph expected. Once the front passes, these strong winds will shift to the northwest and much colder air will rapidly advect into the region. Lows are projected to dip into the 40s by late Sunday night.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Once the front clears the area early Monday morning, deep layer northwest flow will take hold on the western periphery of a strong longwave trough deepening over the eastern seaboard. Very dry air will advect into the area and conditions will remain dry through the extended period. A potent thermal trough axis will slide into the area on Monday, and this will allow for very cold conditions. Highs will only warm into the 50s in the afternoon and overnight lows will plunge into the 30s. There will likely be a light freeze over portions of the Northshore, Southwest Mississippi, and the Mississippi coast Monday night into Tuesday morning and freeze warning products will be necessary given the recent greening of the foliage during our warm stretch of weather.

A reinforcing dry frontal passage will occur on Tuesday and this will keep temperatures well below average with highs once again only warming into the 50s. Lows should be a few degrees warmer with readings falling into the mid 30s north of I-10 and the low 40s south of I-10 Tuesday night, but the drainages of the Pearl and Pascagoula Rivers may briefly dip down to freezing once again.

The heart of the thermal trough axis will finally begin to pull to the east on Wednesday and Thursday, and this will allow for temperatures to gradually modify. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 60s on Wednesday and then rise to more average readings for mid-March in the mid 70s on Thursday. Overnight lows will also climb from the 40s Wednesday night into the 50s on Thursday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions will be the rule at all of the terminals as a dry and stable high pressure dominates the region.

MARINE

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Conditions will continue to improve tonight into tomorrow as a high pressure system becomes centered over the region. Winds will turn more easterly and then southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots and seas will fall to 3 feet or less. These conditions will continue through Saturday. The high will shift to the east Saturday night and Sunday and southeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots by Sunday morning. Further strengthening of the winds to 15 to 20 knots is expected by Sunday afternoon as a low pressure system to the north intensifies. A strong cold front will then pass through the waters Sunday night into early Monday. Ahead of the front, southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots and seas will rise to 5 to 7 feet. Behind the front, winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 30 to 35 knots with higher gusts. These gale conditions will push seas over 10 feet in the Gulf waters creating very hazardous boating conditions. The gale conditions will linger into Monday night before gradually easing on Tuesday as another high pressure system becomes more centered over the waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.