textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1132 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- There is a low chance for frozen precipitation (probably flurries or very light sleet) Saturday night across portions of the area. It appears to be a very short window of opportunity and may be limited to areas near and east of Interstate 59.

- Portions of the area along/north of I-12 in LA as well as the MS coast could see sub freezing overnight lows for 3 consecutive mornings, Sunday morning thru Tuesday morning.

- Wind chills may approach Cold Weather Advisory criteria late Saturday night/early Sunday morning along and north of a line from Baton Rouge to Pascagoula.

- Small Craft headlines in effect across the coastal waters Saturday into Sunday as winds increase to 20-25 knots and seas to 6-9 feet offshore.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Axis of upper trough extended the length of the Mississippi River Valley this evening, with a strong shortwave near the Arkansas- Missouri border. Another strong shortwave was upstream of this near the Montana-North Dakota border. Upper ridging was noted over the Pacific Coast. At the surface, high pressure was noted over Florida and west Texas. A cold front extended from Lake Michigan to just northwest of the local area to the Texas coast. An Arctic front was noted near Interstate 70 in Missouri and Kansas. Partly to mostly cloudy skies were noted over the area this evening with temperatures in the 50s. Dew points were around 50 degrees in most areas. Scattered showers were in advance of the front, approaching the McComb and Baton Rouge areas at forecast issuance.

The shortwave near the Arkansas-Missouri border is about as far south as it will dig, and should lift northeastward through the Ohio River Valley tonight. It should still pull the cold front offshore overnight. Scattered light rain showers (and maybe one rumble of thunder) will continue to move across the area, with most areas dry after sunrise. CAA from this system will help to hold highs in the 50s, and we probably won't get totally rid of the clouds at any point during the day.

Stepping forward into the evening through the overnight period, another shortwave moving southward through the main trough causes it to sharpen as that axis moves southward from the Central Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. That sharpening causes flow around the base of the trough to accelerate. That acceleration then increases positive vorticity advection downstream on the east/SE side of the trough axis, which at this point is over southern LA/MS/AL. However, latest CAM and global models don't show the real sharpening until right as or after the trough axis passes across the CWA Sunday morning. Think this is a key reason why forced ascent from the PVA doesn't really get frontogenesis going along the LA coast but rather moreso into coastal MS/AL or even further east. So that mid/level jet aloft is slightly weaker which can delay the timing of moisture surge on the southeast side of the trough. This likely explains the variations placement/track of southwest to northeast rain shield during the Saturday night/Sunday morning hours. We may not ever totally saturate the column in the -10 to -20 dendritic zone, which is so important for development of snow flakes. While model soundings do show potential for this in the southeastern portion of the CWA, wetbulb down to the surface before dry air moves in from the north will be a challenge. At the same time, need that cold air in the lower levels too.

Taking all this into consideration, the most likely scenario is swath of rain with perhaps one or two small pockets of very light sleet or snow moving into southeast LA south of the Interstate corridor around midnight. The MS coast, like Harrison and Jackson County, could have a little more mixture of sleet/snow with rain for a couple hours before 12z. Amounts aren't likely to be much more than a trace in any case. If skies aren't clear by sunrise Sunday across the area, it won't be long afterward. It's going to be cold Sunday morning, with temperatures approaching freezing from Baton Rouge to Slidell to Pascagoula northward. Wind chill temperatures will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s for several hours around sunrise and wind chills only improving into perhaps the mid 40s during the day, although actual temperatures may approach 50. With clear skies and light winds Sunday night, Monday morning actual lows will be similar to Sunday morning, but without any wind.

Bottom line is that probabilities of measurable frozen precipitation are very low late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, but not zero. Regardless, if any snow or sleet develops, antecedent ground temps should keep anything from sticking on roadways with only low potential on metal or grassy areas. By midday temps are already expected to be well into the 40s. Cold by climate standards but warm in terms of frozen precip potential.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

For Monday through Wednesday, dry weather is expected. It's likely to take until the daytime hours Wednesday for temperatures to approach normal for mid January (highs near 60, lows near 40). A southern stream shortwave will likely produce rain along the northern Gulf Coast by Wednesday night or Thursday with a drier day or two behind it. Beyond Wednesday morning, at least we're off the warm air/cold air roller coaster for a few days as the southern stream wave train keeps the colder air bottled up to our north.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions in place, and should mostly remain VFR. Scattered SHRA moving across northern portions of the area, and will carry TEMPO MVFR conditions at most terminals for about a 3-4 hour period prior to sunrise. There is a non-zero threat for TSRA as a few lightning strikes have been noted over central Mississippi in the last few hours. At least BKN cloud cover is expected to continue during the day at most or all terminals Saturday, but beyond mid-morning, cloud bases likely to be above FL050. Currently appears that any significant threat of precipitation, and it isn't great, beyond 00z Sunday should be limited to KGPT and KHUM. Will use PROB30 for those. At this point, any threat of at KGPT prior to 06z Sunday is too low to justify .

MARINE

Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Surface high pressure east of the region has allowed onshore flow to return. The pressure gradient has allowed winds to subside somewhat for the next few hours as the frontal boundary approaches. Post frontal winds reach Small Craft Advisory criteria west of the mouth of the MS River Saturday morning, and have raised Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines elsewhere for the daytime hours. Its not until Saturday evening and overnight that the rest of the local coastal waters see 20+ knot winds/gusts. The Small Craft headlines account for that local timing. Advisories run until noon Sunday and that may be too long as forecast boundary layer winds really drop off fast after sunrise Sunday. Additional cold frontal passages at about 48 hour intervals could produce periods of hazardous conditions into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 53 28 47 29 / 10 10 0 0 BTR 56 31 50 31 / 10 10 0 0 ASD 56 31 50 29 / 20 20 0 0 MSY 57 37 51 35 / 20 20 0 0 GPT 58 33 50 31 / 20 30 10 0 PQL 58 31 50 27 / 30 30 10 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ550-552-570-572.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for GMZ552-570-572.