textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 618 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- A couple stray showers are possible early Friday, otherwise dry and benign weather continues.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

We continue to feel the effects of the upper level ridging that is nearly centered over the area today. Winds have turned northerly and will gradually move to northeasterly, which is helping to bring some dry air into the area. This can be seen in the afternoon dewpoints which drop into the upper 60s today and even the mid 60s tomorrow. Some stray showers are possible along the coast and offshore, most late tonight into early Friday. The hrrr has been pretty consistent with showing these, so ran a blend of the hrrr and NBM to show this. These are not expected to bring any impacts to the area. The short term period is looking dry.

Afternoon highs today through Saturday will trend just a tick downward, into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile, early morning low temperatures will see even more of a temperature difference, with many northshore areas seeing the mid 60s Saturday morning. Highs look to bounce back into the low to mid 90s Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The start of the long term period won't be a whole lot different from the end of the short term period. We get caught between the upper level ridging to the west and the upper closed low in the Atlantic up in the northeastern U.S. This brings northwesterly flow for us in the upper levels, while at the surface winds are briefly a little chaotic. By later Monday, we start to see southeasterly flow take over at the surface which will bring some moisture return. In terms of temperatures, Monday and Tuesday will see similar highs as the weekend in the low to mid 90s.

Heading into Wednesday is when we may start to see a pattern shift. Guidance is not really in agreement with a lot of details, BUT there is starting to be increasing confidence that there is a chance we may see our first real front of the season mid to late next week. The globals actually start off with similar solutions on late Tuesday as an upper level trough slides into the desert southwest region. The GFS and Euro diverge shortly after that, with the GFS sliding the trough across Texas before it starts to lift it up towards the TN Valley region. Meanwhile the Euro lags behind a bit, as it spins a closed low over the panhandle region and then lifting up over the central plains. At the surface. a frontal boundary will end up somewhere close to our region towards late week, but the globals handle it very differently. There is also the factor of how they handle Hurricane Polo which is out in the Pacific and forecast to make landfall in Baja California before its remnants push into the SW U.S. Won't get too far into the details, but regardless this will start to increase rain chances late in the forecast. The models have plenty of time to work out all the details of this, so in the meantime we will just look forward to the chance at our first good front of the season!

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all of the terminals as a dry northerly wind remains in place. Winds will gradually shift from the north to the east-northeast during the day tomorrow, and wind speeds could exceed 10 knots at MSY and NEW for a few hours in the afternoon. Overall, no significant concerns for aviators are expected through the end of the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Winds will briefly come back down for a few hours today after a period of ~15kt winds. Winds shift to more easterly into Friday with speeds at or below 20 knots. Wind gusts will get very close to small craft criteria but only very briefly. Seas will generally remain ~1- 3ft through the period. Past Saturday marine conditions look benign.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.