textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 148 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

- There is a threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening ahead of our next cold front. There is currently a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the whole area, with damaging winds and tornadoes being the primary threats. Please stay weather aware tomorrow and have multiple ways of receiving warnings.

- In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also a threat of flash flooding today into Saturday. Similar to the severe weather, there is a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 2 out of 4) for the whole area. A Flood Watch has also been issued for now through Saturday morning from along I-59 and westward where we can expect widespread 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts above 6 inches.

- After the front passes on Saturday, gusty offshore winds will filter in behind it. Small craft advisories will likely be needed starting on Sunday, as the winds and waves will be dangerous for small vessels.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 148 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The bulk of the heavy rainfall/storms have stayed confined to a SW to NE band extending from near Baton Rouge to Tylertown, MS. This confluent band is expected to slowly shift north throughout this afternoon and evening as the trailing impulse ejects across Oklahoma. With the leading impulse ejecting over the central CONUS, the LLJ associated with that system has been moving off to the northeast with it, bringing its shear and dynamics with it. That means, in the short term (2-3 hours), these storms will continue to struggle to organize without sufficient wind shear since we have abundant thermodynamics (>1500j/kg MLCAPE).

However, the high-resolution guidance (including WoFS) indicates that we should see an uptick in a secondary low-level jet shortly after 5pm this evening. This will help increase wind shear again and initiate more storms at the same time. This will be the next round of severe storms later this evening. Because of the strengthening shear and elongated hodographs, these storms will pose a threat for damaging winds and tornadoes. The current indication is that this severe threat will be limited to northwestern parts of the area (Pointe Coupee, Felicianas, and SW MS). This is where the guidance has the LLJ max ejecting between 5pm and midnight, so that seems to be the main timeframe of the next round of severe weather. This activity would likely come from around Lafayette and move east-northeastward into the area. The ceiling for this round is a weak tornado or two that could be on the ground for a little bit (versus quick spinups) since the hodograph structure appears to be more elongated rather than looping. Of course, the floor is a continued mess of convection leading to a flash flood risk with training cells.

Like alluded to before, even if we do not see much of a severe risk with the next round after 5pm, flash flooding will still be a concern since the initiating boundary will largely parallel the upper-level flow. The main concern is if we get a heavy rain band set up over a densely populated area such as Baton Rouge or McComb. The guidance differs on exact placement but even a 5 mile shift can cause a 2-3 inch rainfall difference. So, this will have to be something to monitor where that banding sets up because wherever it does set up could see an additional 5-6 inches of rainfall between now and midnight.

The main cold front will be making its way through the area Saturday morning, bringing a final round of showers and storms with it. The dynamics of the system will be pulling well out of the area by that time, but we could still see a marginal severe threat. The hodograph looks to be very straight for these storms, leading to mainly a damaging wind threat when coupled with 1000 j/kg MLCAPE. That threat should be done with when the front moves offshore in the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 148 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Cold air will filter into the area on Sunday behind the cold frontal passage on Saturday and highs will struggle to get out of the 50s with winds gusting around to 20mph. That cold air advection looks to continue overnight Sunday and into Monday morning where areas in southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes could briefly see freezing conditions Monday morning. The deterministic NBM was just at or above the 75th percentile of guidance for Monday morning, so the 50th percentile was blended to bump down those numbers due to the expected cold air advection.

That cold air advection will continue during the day Monday where high will once again struggle to get even in the mid 50s. High pressure looks to finally filter into the area Monday evening, relaxing our winds. This should lead to decent radiational cooling Monday night and Tuesday morning where the same areas the previous night could see freezing conditions for the second night in a row.

That high slides east and we get southerly flow at the surface going into Tuesday and Wednesday. This helps us warm up slightly to the mid 60s by Wednesday before another cold front comes through the area late on Wednesday. that gets towards the end of our forecast period, so there is decent uncertainty with timing and how cold we get behind it, but that will likely be our next freeze potential later that week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Main focus for this package is the scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the area in multiple rounds as well as the low ceilings with the moisture ahead of the cold front. Because it is uncertain where convection will form, most of the terminals have PROB30s beyond this afternoon. These MVFR ceilings should start to work down around 2-3z to IFR/LIFR ceilings as the moisture pools out ahead of the front. These LIFR ceilings will likely stick around until after the frontal passage Saturday afternoon when the front passes.

MARINE

Issued at 148 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The winds have remained elevated today as a surface low develops across northern Louisiana. Moderate onshore flow will continue through tonight until a cold front moves through Saturday with a window of strong offshore winds. Because of the increase in winds, an SCS was included for all of the waters for now until Saturday morning. Today and tonight into Saturday will have the greatest potential for rain with the best chance of thunderstorms some likely strong tonight and early Saturday.

With days of onshore flow prior to the cold front, we will have a well set up fetch out of the south. With winds quickly veering around to the north-northwest immediately behind the cold front there will be a window of what is called confused seas. The greatest potential appears to be in the outer waters (20-60nm) and west of the mouth of the MS River. Beyond the frontal passage, advisories will likely be needed starting Sunday as wind will likely be over 20kt in across all of the waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 62 69 40 55 / 90 70 0 0 BTR 64 71 42 60 / 80 70 0 0 ASD 64 74 43 60 / 80 80 10 0 MSY 67 74 48 60 / 70 70 10 0 GPT 64 72 45 59 / 80 90 10 0 PQL 64 74 43 60 / 70 90 10 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ036-037-039-046>048- 056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ069>071-077-083-086.

GM...None.