textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Little or no rain expected through Saturday. Higher rain chances Saturday night into Sunday morning with a cold front.

- The coldest air of the year will bring dangerous wind chills and a widespread freeze to the area Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Strong winds and dangerous seas are expected Sunday into Monday after a strong cold front moves through.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1030 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

The surface high pressure that is sitting east of us will move further eastward through the day on Friday. In the upper levels a southern stream shortwave moving across Texas will push into our area on Saturday. This happens while a much larger and deeper trough swings across the Great Lakes region. All of this helps keep us in an onshore flow, aiding to increase the moisture across the areas. This immediately shows in our RH values Friday afternoon, on the order of ~70% which is up from the 35-40% Thursday afternoon. Some very minor rain chances creep into western areas Friday afternoon, ~15-20%, while a little bit better of chances arrive later in the day Saturday, up to 25-30% for northern areas.

That increased moisture that we will see helps the environment be more conducive to fog, which is our main concern of the short term period. Friday night into Saturday morning looks to have a good chance at widespread fog as we see light winds and that moisture thanks to the onshore winds. The HREF is already hitting on this potential very hard, along with several other models. If this trend continues a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed with the forecast package tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1030 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

The start to the long term brings our best chance of rain throughout the forecast period, with a strong cold front associated with that upper level deep trough approaching our area. The early morning hours on Sunday will see a 40-50% chance of rain for northern areas and a 15-25% chance for further south areas. This is expected to be a pretty light rain in the areas it does fall, with no real threat of strong storms or organized convection. After this cold front passes later in the day Sunday, we will see upper level ridging building in from the west. This will be paired with a decent area of high pressure at the surface, sitting to our NE. These features bring us drier weather through at least mid-week. Global models are hinting at another southern stream trough making its way towards us towards mid to late week, but with not a ton of agreement in the models not going to stray from NBM at all.

Now getting into the real threat of the long term period, the cold. Sunday's cold front will be a pretty decent one, bringing a surge of cold air in behind it. Monday morning MinTs across areas north of the lake and coastal MS are sitting in the low to mid 20s with MinTs near freezing south of the lake. Wind chills north of the lake are expected to be in the teens with areas south of the lake likely seeing the low to mid 20s. Some sort of cold weather hazard will definitely be in place Monday morning, at this point looking to be a Cold Weather Advisory but given we are still a few days out and need to watch trends I wouldn't rule out an Extreme Cold Warning for some areas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Prevailing VFR conditions at all terminals and most should remain that way through this cycle. Western areas, mainly BTR and HUM, have a chance at some fog early Friday morning. This could briefly bring MVFR ceilings and vis, but the fog should burn off after sunrise if it does form.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Light onshore winds of 10 knots or less and calm seas of 2 feet or less will persist over the waters through Saturday as a broad area of high pressure remains centered over the region. A rapid change in conditions will then take place Saturday night and Sunday morning as a very strong cold front moves through. Winds will turn northerly and increase in speed to between 25 and 35 knots with higher gusts from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. There is a decent probability that headlines will be issued for the waters over this time period due to high winds and rough seas anticipated. Another high will then quickly settle over the area on Tuesday, and this will allow winds to turn more easterly and fall back to less than 10 knots. Seas will also begin to subside as the winds decrease Monday night into Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 40 69 52 70 / 0 10 20 20 BTR 43 70 55 73 / 0 20 10 20 ASD 40 70 52 72 / 0 10 10 20 MSY 48 71 58 72 / 0 10 10 10 GPT 44 68 55 69 / 0 10 10 20 PQL 40 69 52 70 / 0 10 10 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.