textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Next potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall will be with a frontal passage Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday Night) Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A cooler and drier airmass has settled into the region in the wake of the cold frontal passage yesterday morning. Surface high pressure continues to spread into the region, which should keep the weather mostly benign today and tomorrow. Surface winds have decreased as pressure gradient relaxes as the high moves closer to the CWFA.

The upper level flow going into the start of the new workweek will remain zonal or slightly dry northwesterly, which again will keep a dry pattern over the region. Eventually, going into late Monday and into Tuesday, the surface high pressure spreads east, which will transition our low level flow to a more southerly flow leading to a gradual uptick in moisture as well as the start of a warming trend ahead of the next front highlighted in the long term portion. Temperatures will be the primary focus with maximum daytime temps warming from the 70s early on in the forecast period to lower to middle 80s on Tuesday. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

As we head into the middle of the work week the forecast becomes a little more active. With that there is some uncertainties and model disagreements but overall the main pattern heading into the extended portion of the forecast is in fairly decent agreement from the guidance, its mainly some timing and strength detail issues but with the possibility of strong to severe storms in this time frame those differences mean a lot. We will see another cold front work towards the area Wednesday night/early Thursday and that will bring some storms. Models earlier had timing issues of around 6 to 12 hours and with that the plan was to mainly stick with the NBM for now until we could get a better hand on things.

Heading into Wednesday evening this is when things get a little uncertain. We will be under southwest flow aloft but there are a few little details we will need to watch, first the closed low over the southwestern CONUS and how it ejects and where it merges/phases with the northern stream. Does it shoot more east across the southern Plains or does it eject more northeastward into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley Wednesday night. This all may be somewhat dictated by the 2nd thing we need to watch and that is actually a s/w diving out of Canada Tues/Tuesday night across the Rockies. If it dives more towards the south and down the Rockies it may lead to a more amplified pattern but that would take more of the energy north of the area and slow down the cold front. If it dives more south- southeast across the Rockies and just into the central Plains Wednesday we would be more under zonal to subtle west-southwest flow and that disturbance coming out of the southwest CONUS would take a slightly more eastward trajectory and thus provide more forcing Wednesday night. This would also cause the front to be faster.

No matter what scenario plays out we will be quite juiced ahead of the front. Dewpoints will climb into the lower 70s possibly even mid 70s Wednesday. This will help lead to a rather unstable environment. MLCAPE values will be above 1K j/kg and likely even abv 1500 J/kg. Instability is not the issue, the issue may be forcing and kinematics along with some timing/getting everything to line up. Upper level jet will be southwest to northeast and north of the area so we may just be on the fringe of the RRQ of the jet. In the LL the LL jet will get going but current thinking is it may move out of the area a little too fast pushing into southern/central MS ahead of the front and then east in AL. This puts much of the area under the tail of the LL jet which is not necessarily the most favorable spot. One thing to watch, LL convergence may actually peak out of our area just as the front is moving in and we move under the the left rear quadrant of the LL jet. Mid lvl flow is the biggest difference depending on the model. If we are under slightly more zonal flow like the ECMWF has then we will see more forcing and stronger mid lvl flow which would favor a greater risk for severe. If the ejecting s/w phases and moves northeast which is a little more typical this time of the year then look for a slower approaching front, weaker forcing, and a milder event. That said make no mistake there will be severe weather across the Lower MS Valley but how much does it get into our CWA is questionable. At this time if we do have severe weather all modes are still possible.

SPC does have a 15% in the Day 5 outlook covering the northern half of the area but the update will be out overnight.

After this moves through the forecast is quiet once again for the next 3 to 4 days. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle. Winds will be northerly or northeasterly and very light...mostly below 10 knots. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Winds and seas will be on the way down today as high pressure begins to move into the region. The high pressure will eventually move east southerly onshore flow will begin to take shape and by Wednesday the southerly flow increases leading to likely needing cautionary headlines at least. After a frontal passage on Wednesday, winds will transition back to the northwest on Thursday. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ529- 531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ531>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.