textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Heavy rainfall continues to be the main weather threat through the week. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing hourly rainfall rates of 1-3" per hour. With mostly saturated soils, high rainfall rates even over short periods could overwhelm drainage systems, leading to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas. Localized flash flooding could also result in some roads becoming impassable, mainly in areas where the heaviest rain falls, or where multiple storms result in longer periods of moderate to heavy rain.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7p this evening for areas generally south of a line from Baton Rouge to Bogalusa. A second Flood Watch will be in effect from 5 AM through 7 PM Tuesday generally for areas from the New Orleans metro eastward through the Mississippi Coast including the north shore. Elsewhere, the flood threat will be lower, though isolated flooding could still occur.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Biggest concern continues to be potential for heavy rainfall associated with any thunderstorms over the next couple days. Precipitable water is forecast to remain near or above the 90th percentile for this time of year, which will continue to promote efficient rainfall processes in any thunderstorms that develop.

Much of the area has received 3-6" of rain over the past 5 days with some unofficial localized reports in excess of 10". That being said, the ground is fairly saturated and any additional heavy rainfall will quickly convert to runoff leading to ponding in low lying and poor drainage areas. Overall, the flash flood threat will be fairly localized - conditionally dependent on isolated to scattered heavier cells embedded in the more widespread light to moderate rain.

Regarding the flood watch... The original flood watch, which is currently in effect for areas generally south of a line from Baton Rouge to Bogalusa, will not be extended beyond 7p this evening. There should be a decent lull in storms this evening and through the overnight hours allowing a clean expiration. However, near constant rain so far today across eastern areas will keep conditions primed for additional flooding tomorrow with some potential for more impactful flash flooding on a localized scale. That being said, a new flood watch will be issued for areas generally from the New Orleans metro eastward across the Mississippi coast (including the north shore) from 5a Tuesday through 7p Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

No substantial change in the active pattern through the coming weekend. Upper level low pressure will remain centered over the western CONUS keeping the local area in a general southwesterly flow pattern aloft. Numerous disturbances will continue to move through the overall southwesterly flow, resulting in generally high daily rain chances.

While the timing of the individual disturbances continues to be difficult to nail down with any real level of confidence, rain chances will typically favor peaking during the afternoon hours when convection will have the added benefit of diurnal destabilization.

With higher than normal cloud cover, diurnal temperature ranges will be a little smaller than normal for this time of year. Overnight lows are forecast to be generally warmer than normal - in the low to mid 70s - while afternoon highs are forecast to be slightly cooler than normal - in the low to mid 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The active pattern continues and most terminals will see periods of showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two. Outside of showers and storms, generally VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through the period, though a couple hours of IFR cigs will be possible toward daybreak. Timing of thunderstorms continues to be difficult at best, but have tried to include TEMPO/PROB30 groups for the most likely timing of impacts both through the remainder of this afternoon and again tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

High pressure anchored over the western Atlantic will maintain light to moderate onshore flow across the local coastal waters. Winds will generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range outside of any convection, which should preclude any headlines. However, daily showers and storms will be capable of producing locally hazardous winds and seas. A few cells each day capable of producing winds in excess of 34 kts over the next few days with one or two possibly approaching/exceeding 50 kts.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ039-046>048- 056>058-064-070-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.