textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Low confidence in addition isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this evening. If storms do develop locally heavy rainfall and perhaps a strong wind gust or two will be possible.

- Higher confidence in showers and thunderstorms Monday and Monday evening with flooding and a few strong to severe storms possible.

- Finally start to dry out after Monday night as ridging builds into the area. Expect temperatures to increase again by mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A few isolated showers are ongoing over Plaquemines Parish this afternoon. Additional development south of I10/12 will be possible this afternoon, but as of now most of the activity has been right along the SE LA Coast. Apart from these showers the main focus is to our northwest where another MCS is developing across northeast Texas this afternoon. Models both mesoscale and global are suggesting this complex of convection will dive southward in response to a strong cold pool. Because of this, expect overnight to be rather dry across the region (IF this pans out). That said, there could still be low stratus develop and perhaps some build down fog.

The stratus and fog potential aside, back to the MCS this afternoon across Texas. Although initially this feature misses us to the west (as per guidance), the outflow may spark off additional showers and storms Monday and Monday evening. Again, mesoscale and global models are both on board with this general scenario. Unfortunately, given the setup a line of convection may develop from west to east along the surface frontal boundary and parallel to the mean upper flow. This will again cause ongoing hydro concerns across the region. Considered a FFA, but decided to hold off because the location of this line is a bit unknown. Outside of additional heavy rain today (which seems we are getting a break) there will be some hydro turnover. That plus...WPC estimates of only around an inch tomorrow on areal average, again decided to hold off on a watch for this package.

Eventually, the front will move through as the upper level flow transitions to a more northwest flow. Not much in terms of a cool down is expected as upper heights quickly start to increase and lower rain chances mean temperatures will start to rebound with a warmer trend starting as early as Tuesday. Surface flow will also breakdown at a surface high pressure begins to spread into the region. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Long term the pattern transitions aloft. In terms of weather, not much will change. Temperatures will still be in the middle and upper 80s. Conditions will remain rather dry and free of rainfall. That said, the upper flow does transition from a dry northwesterly flow to a more zonal flow and at the surface, high pressure moves east of the region gradually allowing for a more moisture rich environment to overspread the region from the Gulf. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Another round of fog and low stratus will be the main forecast concern through the overnight and early morning hours of the forecast period. This next round of fog and low stratus will develop due to the combination of light winds, high relative humidity, and very saturated soils. Prevailing LIFR conditions will develop between 08z and 10z at all of the terminals as a stratus deck ranging between 200 and 500 feet forms. Areas of fog will also form by 10z with most terminals seeing visibilities reduced to 1 to 3 miles between 10z and 14z. After 14z, increasing boundary layer mixing will allow the fog to clear and the low stratus deck to lift to between 1000 and 2000 feet. Further mixing by 18z will result in a scattered cumulus field at around 2500 to 3500 feet. Thunderstorm activity will also begin to fire up in advance of an approaching frontal boundary after 18z, and this is reflected by PROB30 wording at nearly all of the terminals after 18z. The convection will produce lightning, locally strong wind gusts, and reduced visibilities as it moves over a terminal.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

South to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist through tonight. Anticipating at least one to two more rounds of storms through Monday evening with some strong to severe storms possible across marine waters. Main threats will be wind gusts greater than 34 knots and waterspouts. A frontal boundary will move into the waters tonight into Monday, bringing moderate offshore winds briefly. Otherwise, marine conditions through the rest of the workweek appear to remain rather benign. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.