textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

* Low temperatures near or just below freezing are forecast for most places that are generally along/north of the I-10/12 corridor Monday and Tuesday mornings. Any freezing temperatures are forecast to last only last a few hours. However, residents should take action to protect sensitive vegetation and ensure outdoor pets have access to warm shelter.

* According to the National Fire Protection Association, nearly half of all home fires occur between the months of December, January and February, with the increased risk attributed to the use of home heating devices such as portable space heaters and fireplaces. Those planning to use such devices during this cold snap should safety recommendations - such as using a screen and keeping a fire extinguisher near all fire places; and ensuring all space heaters are plugged directly into wall outlets and placed on level surfaces at least 3 ft from any flammable materials. * Small craft advisories remain in effect through 6a Monday across all coastal waters of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi due to strong winds and hazardous seas. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1201 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Cold high pressure is building into the area in the wake of yesterday's cold front and will become more centered over the area tonight through Tuesday. This will cause winds will become light to calm this evening and overnight. When combined with the low dewpoints and mostly clear skies, expect efficient radiative cooling as the sun sets. Temperatures should fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s most places by midnight, with morning lows dropping to near or just below freezing across areas generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. Freezing conditions are forecast to only last a few hours, so the main impact will be unprotected sensitive vegetation. Residents should also take care to provide outdoor pets with warm shelter and/or blankets, and those using indoor space heaters or fireplaces should heed all necessary safety precautions.

Cold weather headlines continue to look unnecessary. Temperatures across the southernmost areas are forecast to remain above freezing both nights, which precludes the issuance of freeze headlines, and both wind chills and ambient temperatures are forecast to remain above cold weather advisory criteria. Will continue to mention that the wind chills do get close to the 25 degree threshold across portions of coastal Mississippi early Monday morning. However, given the low confidence and limited duration even if it does happen, will abstain from issuing a cold weather advisory at this time.

Daytime temperatures will be near to below normal Monday and Tuesday - topping out in the mid 50s Monday and upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1201 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

A fairly progressive pattern will continue into the long term forecast with two systems to discuss - the first Tuesday night and the second going into the weekend.

An upper level cutoff low currently located over the Baja peninsula will gradually shift eastward and will finally open up and be absorbed into a longer-wave upper level trough digging from the Great Lakes region toward the Gulf Coast Tuesday. Given the trajectory of the disturbance and limited to no real return flow ahead of it, precipitation should remain shunted southward over the Gulf. Can't rule out some overzealous virga in a few places, though, so will keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast Tuesday night night as the residual disturbance moves across the central Gulf coast region around the base of the upper level trough. The cloud cover will keep temperatures a bit warmer Tuesday night, with lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 40s area-wide.

By Wednesday the disturbance will be moving away from the area with cold high pressure once again building into the region. Expect a return to below normal overnight lows for Wednesday night/Thursday morning and Thursday night/Friday morning. The coldest temperatures look to be Friday morning as the high begins to retreat northeastward leading to light northeasterly flow across the local area. However, there is a fairly wide spread in the guidance with a 15-20 degree difference between the high and low members of the ECMWF ensemble members and a similar difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles of the NBM probabilistic guidance. This is likely owing to slight timing differences in exactly when winds will turn onshore as the high moves away from the area.

Will make note that the deterministic NBM numbers are on the higher side of the guidance envelope, falling close to its own 75th percentile, and well above the ECMWF ensemble mean and deterministic ECMWF and GFS MOS guidance. That being said, will drop temperatures a few degrees lower than the NBM Friday morning - especially across areas east of I-55 where the retreating high tends to lead to more optimal cold air drainage. There is definitely potential for this adjustment to backfire if the high lifts northeastward faster than forecast and winds turn southeasterly overnight instead of after sunrise Friday.

The surface high quickly shifts eastward Friday with a warming trend setting in by afternoon. This is in response to a shortwave disturbance diving down the backside of the overall longwave trough extending from central/eastern Canada through the central CONUS. This disturbance will force another cold front through the local area over the weekend. Due to fairly significant differences in both the timing and amplitude of the shortwave disturbance, there continues to be quite a bit more uncertainty than usual going into the weekend since the aforementioned differences will directly impact both the timing and strength of the surface cold front. For now, will stick to NBM values going into the weekend, which results in a frontal passage late Saturday into Saturday night with little to no precipitation in the forecast.

Will once again stress, however, that beyond Thursday the forecast has a higher degree of uncertainty than normal and there could be substantial changes to both temperatures and rain chances Friday and beyond.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR through this taf cycle and winds will slowly ease.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Small craft advisories will remain through 6am Monday with strong northerly winds of 15 to 25 knots and rough waves/seas. As the high settles over the area Monday, winds and seas will ease until another disturbance approaches the area midweek with another round of caution or advisory conditions likely Wednesday and Thursday as another cold front passes through and strong high pressure again builds into the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 55 30 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 59 33 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 59 30 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 60 40 55 40 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 59 33 53 31 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 60 30 55 28 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.