textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Low coverage of daily afternoon rain/storm chances until the weekend.

- Afternoon max heat indicies reach into the 100-105F range late week.

- Rain chances begin to slowly increase area wide over the weekend. This could bring the possibility of more heavy rainfall days as we move into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

What was seen yesterday will be very close to what we will see the next few days in terms of precip numbers, coverage and placement. The Atchafalaya Basin and areas adjacent are best positioned for higher precip numbers while most of the area will remain dry through Fri and we may be able to tack on Saturday, but we will see how that comes out. This will at least give all of us some time to get grass mowed before the waterworks start again. The only real issue in the short term is heat. Although, this is not expected to cause headlines at the moment, it will be the start of what we always have to get used to during gulf coast summers. Moisture will pool ahead of a cold front starting Friday. This pooling is achieved by capping it causing it to stay in the bounary layer where we live. With not much in the way of vertilation, the heat can build during the day bringing heat index numbers up. Friday looks to be the first day of around 105 numbers, but if there is not enough cloud cover Saturday, then that day would be a contender as well.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The long term starts with a continuation of ridging over the northern and central Gulf. This will continue to promote slightly lower than climo POPs and higher than climo temps with suppression of diurnal showers and storms and higher heights/thicknesses leading to above average temperatures. This pattern should quickly change into the new workweek. The upper ridge starts to break down as a large scale trough begins to take shape over the central states. At the surface, a late season cold front begins to move south and east toward our region and eventually stalls over our region at least briefly. With moisture pooling ahead of the front with a moderate onshore flow taking shape, PWATs will be pretty high in some cases as high as 2.4" in the more extreme cases (as per globals at this juncture), which would help promote torrential downpours. The GFS is a bit wetter than the other globals at this point, but if the wetter trend continues POPs will likely need to be nudged up to round out the long term period. Again, with high rainfall rates and overall wet antecedent conditions, hydro concerns will be there, at least with the current long range precip signal. The good news in all of that...with the higher POPs temperatures early next week will be 7- 10 degree cooler when compared to the short term period or even Sunday afternoon. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 508 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions through this cycle for most terminals. The only site that could see reduced vis and cigs to MVFR or IFR will be MCB around sunrise again Thu.

MARINE

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Winds will remain ESE to SE at 10 to 15 knots through the weekend. Winds are expected to stay out of a southerly direction even into next week but wind speeds may rise into the 15 to 20 knot range by late Sunday. Low numbers of showers and storms will remain as well but winds and seas will be higher in and near any thunderstorm activity that does occur.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.