textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 519 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- Our next chance of rain will be late Friday afternoon into Saturday as another front moves into the area.

- Beyond Saturday, little or no rain is expected into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

The axis of the upper trough to our east has finally shifted into the Atlantic. While upper ridging was mainly over the Rockies, there was a subtle shortwave over the Texas Panhandle this evening. The main upper trough to the west of the ridge was over the Pacific Ocean, but there was a shortwave in advance of it near Lake Tahoe. At the surface, high pressure covered much of the Gulf, while an east-west frontal boundary was between Interstates 40 and 70.

The evening upper air soundings around the region had precipitable water values in the 0.4 to 0.5 range, near the 25th percentile. There were some high clouds across the area with temperatures in the mainly in the 50s late this evening.

The Panhandle shortwave will be near Memphis by sunset Friday, while the one near Lake Tahoe at present will move to the Texas Panhandle at sunset Friday. Southerly low level winds will increase moisture levels to near the 75th percentile, but most of the moisture looks to be from the surface to about 850 mb. While there's a good amount of shear, instability is rather limited with the lead shortwave, and mainly elevated. May see some sprinkles or isolated rain showers during the afternoon hours, although the threat of thunder on the nose of the LLJ can't be entirely ruled out. The trailing shortwave will move across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning, with the best lift departing the area by midday Saturday as the cold front exits as well. While instability may be somewhat improved with the second shortwave, shear will be decreasing. The best chance of thunder, if there is going to be any, will probably occur Saturday morning, and mainly over eastern portions of the area, ahead of the cold front. A strong storm or two can't be entirely ruled out. Clouds will rapidly depart the area Saturday afternoon and evening with cooler air behind the frontal passage.

Highs on Thursday ended up closer to the NBM 90th or 95th percentile from last night. The only thing preventing me from jumping on that trend fully for Friday is that cloud cover will be a bit more significant. Something close to the 75th percentile may be sufficient with temperatures mainly in the 70s area-wide. Saturday highs will be a bit more challenging with the frontal passage during the day. Extreme northwest portions of the area, where the front may be well east of the area by mid-morning, may not get out of the 60s. The southeast half of the area could actually be warmer Saturday than Friday with northwest winds during the afternoon as true cold advection won't have arrived yet. Lows Saturday night likely to be a good 15 degrees colder than those Saturday morning, with much of the area in the 40s.

Could be a little breezy the next couple days, but current indications are that winds won't be strong enough to justify Wind Advisories, though.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Weak upper ridging rebuilds over the Gulf for Sunday into midweek next week. A shortwave lifting northeast from the southern Rockies at midweek could get close enough to the area to produce precipitation at some point toward the end of next week. At this time, timing differences between the global models wouldn't justify much more than 20-30 PoPs for any 12 hour period, and not even that until Wednesday night.

The cooloff with the Saturday front will still keep high temperatures Sunday above normal, as the airmass is of Pacific origin. Warmer air will already be returning Monday with highs near 70, then in the 70s for the remainder of the week. If recent trends of highs verifying near the NBM 75th percentile continue, a good chunk of the area will flirt with 80 degrees for highs for the middle of next week. Similarly, overnight lows could be as much as 15 degrees above normals. Normal temperatures for early January have highs around 60 and lows near 40 for much of the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

All sites should remain VFR to MVFR through the daylight hours with the possibility of a drop or two of rain. This will change to IFR and LIFR tonight as lower cigs move in along with some -SHRA activity. Vis should remain VFR today and move to MVFR for most terminals over the southern half of the area tonight while MCB and possibly a few other terminals over the northern half of the area reach IFR restrictions.

MARINE

Issued at 1124 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A surface ridge centered over the Gulf will track eastward, crossing Florida on Friday. Local winds have responded to this by rotating around to SW. Expecting a modest increase in wind speeds by mid to late morning Friday as a developing surface low to the north tightens the local pressure gradient.

Low pressure to the north of the area will drive a cold front through all the coastal waters on Saturday. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for most of the waters from late morning Friday into Saturday morning. The progressive pattern will quickly result in the tight pressure gradient relaxing which will lend to a subsiding wind field by Saturday evening or Sunday morning. Conditions should be improved for early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 72 61 70 44 / 20 30 10 0 BTR 75 63 75 46 / 20 20 10 0 ASD 72 60 75 46 / 10 40 30 0 MSY 75 64 77 51 / 10 30 30 0 GPT 69 61 75 48 / 10 60 50 0 PQL 71 59 75 46 / 10 60 60 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.