textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Wilkinson County as well as Pointe Coupee and West Feliciana Parishes for a light glaze of freezing rain this weekend.

- A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the rest of southwest Mississippi and a portion of southeast Louisiana for potential of freezing rain this

- A Cold Weather Advisory is effect for portions of SELA and SWMS tonight and Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for all of the area Sunday night through Tuesday morning. Winds chills could range from near 0 to 15 degrees Monday morning and from the mid single digits to upper teens Tuesday morning.

- A Small Craft Advisory(SCY) and a Gale Watch(GLA) remain in effect for all of the coastal waters. The SCY begins Saturday night and continues through Sunday for strong onshore winds ahead of a developing surface low. The GLA is for Sunday night into monday morning for the possibility of very strong winds out of the northwest behind the cold front that will move through Sunday and early Sunday evening.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The next 48 hours will be a very challenging forecast in many ways. A strong shortwave trough embedded within the broader CONUS trough is currently sharpening while its dives south towards the 4-Corners At the same time, a southern-stream upper low is moving east from the Pacific and will be passing east across Baja California around noon today. As it moves into tracks into Texas tonight it will phase with the northern-stream shortwave. The now virtually singular feature will then swing through the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday into Monday.

The resulting pattern supports a probable significant freezing rain event across Central Louisiana and Mississippi as warm, moist mid levels overrunning an increasingly cold, shallow Arctic surface layer that is surging southward. It's arguably a much 'easier' forecast in those areas of the region as its not a question of IF but how much freezing rain occurs. Farther south in our CWA uncertainty is significantly higher. This is due to both the shallow depth of the Arctic airmass as well as the criticalness of timing of cold air arrival while still raining.

Before the bitterly cold air arrives, the environmental setup is a bit interesting on Sunday afternoon. A fairly sharp temp and dewpoint gradient will exist across the CWA Saturday with a roughly 30 degree delta-T between Woodville MS and Boothville LA. If you look at soundings along coastal areas from LA to MS, cold air aloft combined with those mid 60 degree temps and you're seeing a surprising amount of elevated instability. The more impressive parameters are high shear (not surprising this time if year), moderate helicity and climatologically high PW's. So definitely do have some concern for rotating cells and SPC's Outlook high lights this. Worthy of a Slight Risk? Probably not as the challenge will be cells becoming surface based with little/no help from cooler waters temps.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Terminals are a mix of VFR to IFR conditions for ceilings tonight. Showers will then begin to enter the area later this morning which will impact visibilities but the bigger impact will be the lowering ceilings which will put most terminals into the MVFR if not IFR range and will likely stay there for the rest of the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

A backdoor front but will remain anchored over the coastal waters for another 18-24 hours. By late this afternoon or early evening a surface low will begin to slowly take shape in the northwestern Gulf slowly drawing the front back to the north. As the surface low deepens and moves northeast the pressure gradient will tighten and onshore winds will increase to SCY criteria overnight and during the day Sunday. Once the low moves to the north and then northeast of the area Sunday afternoon a very strong cold front will quickly surge through the area. Winds will quickly veer around to the northwest Sunday evening and increase to sustained around 25-30 kts with gusts approaching 40 kts. The tidal lakes will see the wind increase first and could be flirting with Gales between 00 and 03z Monday while the rest of the coastal waters will follow suit from northwest to southeast. With that a Gale Watch has been issued for all of the coastal waters from 00z Monday through 15z Monday. As high pressure builds in Monday night into Tuesday, the northerly winds will gradually decrease, but small craft advisory conditions will persist.

MEFFER

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for LAZ034>037-046>048.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for LAZ034-035.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for LAZ036-037-039-046>048-071-083.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572- 575-577.

Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ068>070.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ068.

Extreme Cold Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for MSZ069>071.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577.

Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.