textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Light to moderate rain will affect the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

- Another round of rain will move in on Saturday. Saturday night, temperatures will fall low enough to change the rain over to freezing rain across portions of southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes. There currently is a 40-60% chance of accumulating ice in those areas Saturday night, with the I-12 corridor at about a 20-25% chance. Icing across the southshore seems unlikely at this point (0-5% chance), but we will continue to monitor for trends.

- After the threat of freezing rain, the cold Arctic airmass driving the winter precipitation will linger across the area with lows in the upper teens to low 20s along and north of I-12 Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. With that being said, cold weather headlines will likely be needed as early as Sunday morning, with Monday and Tuesday mornings being the coldest at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

The mid-level impulse coming down over the Rockies is expected to phase with a weak southern stream shortwave over northern Mexico during the afternoon and evening today. That southern impulse is expected to get picked up and move over our area at that time, bringing in higher overall moisture (PW around 1.25in) and lift across the area. Because of this, we will have scattered light to moderate showers across the northern half of the area. Because we remain somewhat cooler and dry at the surface, these will likely remain showers this afternoon through Thursday morning.

Upper-level ridging is expected to stretch across northern Mexico and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. This will help to dry us out down to 1 inch PW and suppress shower activity to keep it isolated to scattered. The ridging will also help warm us up further on Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. With moisture constantly being advected into the area, sea fog will be a concern Thursday morning as the moist air goes over the cooler shelf waters that are sitting in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Friday will be the last chance to enjoy warmer weather at least through the end of this forecast cycle (middle of next week). The previously mentioned ridging is expected to weaken and suppress into the Gulf on Friday as a strong upper-level trough digs across the Rockies. Because we will still be under the influence of the ridge, temps on Friday are expected to get into the mid to upper 60s. Because we lose the suppression of the ridging on Friday, we will likely see an increase in shower activity on Friday. We'll have a very small amount of instability to work with, so we could see a few rumbles of thunder out of the strongest storms on Friday.

As the upper-level trough comes down the plains, it is expected to phase with another trough in the eastern Pacific. This leads to a very unique phasing of very cold arctic air and moist Pacific air coming together across the deep south. That phasing is also expected to spin up a surface low across the northern Gulf on Saturday. Although models have remained incredibly consistent with themselves, there are still spatial differences with the low that will play a huge role in just how far south the frigid airmass gets, leading to freezing rain. Most of the guidance has the low getting down to roughly 1014mb, but the main difference is where the low tracks. Most of the guidance has the low tracking right along the coast. This would help limit the southward extent of the coldest air, thus keeping freezing rain limited to southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes, where totals could get up to 0.25 inch of ice. However, if the low tracks 10-20 mile south of that, the colder air would be pushing further south, putting areas along the I-12 corridor more at risk (including Baton Rouge). The latter solution seems like the least likely as of right now, but these cold, dense and shallow airmasses have a tendency to make it further south than expected, so the I-10/12 corridor is not completely out of the question, just seems like the more unlikely solution at this point. Because of that southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes have a 40-60% chance of seeing accumulating ice Saturday night and Sunday, while the I-12 corridor, including Baton Rouge, has a 20-25% chance of that during the same timeframe. These winter setups are very fickle and 1-2 degrees can make all of the difference, so we'll have to monitor the trends as the high- resolution models get into range to really nail down the details. So, as of right now, the most likely areas of seeing accumulating ice (up to 0.25 inch) is southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes while the I-12 corridor needs to watch closely on how the forecast evolves over the next 24-48 hours.

Regardless on how far south the ice accumulations get, the days following the storm are going to be the coldest of this winter so far. Even when the system departs on Sunday, strong cold air advection will be in place across the area Sunday and Monday. This will lead to expected lows on Sunday and Monday morning in the upper teens and low 20s along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. A surface high looks to filter across the area on Tuesday and we efficiently radiate Tuesday morning, which likely will lead to our coldest morning with lows even flirting with the mid teens in southwest Mississippi. We likely finally warm up into the 50s Tuesday afternoon and evening to finish out this forecast cycle.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions will remain for much of the daylight hours. Cigs will gradually begin to invade and fall to MVFR around sunset then lower into IFR through the night hours. A few sites should also see LIFR cigs as well. Some SHRA activity around will also drop vis to IFR for some. There is a chance of FG dropping vis to LIFR as well overnight but this may be very rangy from 1/2SM to 3SM.

MARINE

Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Winds will remain between 15 and 20 knots through later this morning in the wake of a reinforcing front that pushed through the waters yesterday. Afterwards this afternoon, winds will turn onshore at 10 to 15 knots as a high shifts to the east and a low pressure system approaches from the west. These lighter onshore winds will persist through Thursday night. Friday will see winds turn more east and northeasterly behind the departing low. Saturday should see winds increase further to at least exercise caution and possibly small craft advisory range as a reinforcing front passes through the waters and a colder airmass begins to move in from the north. By Saturday night and Sunday, winds will increase further and a period of 20 to 25 knot winds, rough seas, and small craft advisory conditions will be in place through Monday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.