textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Cold front moving through the area overnight with colder air in its wake. The coldest morning will be Tuesday morning.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected to continue into at least Monday evening before conditions improve on Tuesday.

- Little, if any, rainfall through next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A broad upper trough covered much of the eastern two thirds of the country this evening, with ridging along the Pacific Coast. A strong shortwave was moving through the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, low pressure was moving across the northern half of the area, with a cold front trailing to the southwest near Houma at 11 PM CST. A nearly solid line of showers was noted in advance of the front. Temperatures ahead of, and just behind the front were generally in the 50s. Colder air was still well to the northwest.

The trough and low pressure will already be off the Atlantic Coast by Monday evening, with high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to Texas. By sunset Tuesday, the high will extend from the Carolina coast to the Louisiana coast, and remain there overnight Tuesday night.

The precipitation affecting the area this evening will end across the area well before sunrise Monday. However, clouds may be slower to clear the area, especially over southwest Mississippi. Expect little sunshine during the morning hours Monday, but southeast Louisiana and the Mississippi coast could get some sun during the afternoon hours. There is at least some chance that clouds could linger over southwest Mississippi through a good portion of Monday night before skies clear.

Temperatures should see some recovery Monday afternoon in areas that see sunshine, but may not move much over southwest Mississippi. There is some threat of temperatures dipping to the freezing mark near sunrise Tuesday over portions of southwest Mississippi and the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages, but confidence not high enough to justify Freeze Warnings at this time. Temperatures should begin to recover during the day Tuesday, to around 60 or perhaps a little higher. With high pressure slipping off to the east Tuesday night, temperatures should remain safely above freezing.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

With the longwave trough axis to our east for the middle of the week into, and potentially through, the weekend, the upper flow will be northwesterly, which should keep the area mostly dry. If there is going to be any precipitation during this portion of the forecast, it will probably be over the weekend. If it occurs, it looks like amounts will be rather light, probably less than a quarter inch.

The medium range operational models from Sunday morning were in disagreement regarding any cold air behind the next front, with the ECMWF noticeably warmer than the Sunday daytime GFS run for Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF warmer solution was a significant departure from what we were looking at 24 hours ago, but would note that a very quick look at the new 00z/08 GFS is trending that direction as well. At this point, the NBM numbers appear to give the older GFS solution quite a bit more weight. Would not be surprised to see the midday Monday forecast package trend a fair amount warmer for next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Low pressure and cold front moving across terminals at forecast issuance time. Anticipate IFR or lower conditions for much of the remaining overnight hours. Any significant precipitation should end prior to 09z, though. Expect some improvement to MVFR around mid- morning. Most terminals should improve to VFR 19z-21z, with the exception being KMCB, which may keep flight restrictions (MVFR) for most or all of the forecast period. Wind gusts to 25 knots or so could impact KMSY and KNEW through at least 00z Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Will continue Small Craft Advisory through 00z Tuesday, followed by Small Craft Exercise Caution through 09z Tuesday as winds and seas gradually subside. Conditions should be more favorable for marine operations, at least regarding winds and waves for Tuesday through Thursday. Once onshore flow develops at mid-week, that can be a signal for sea fog development. At this time, the only window where dew points might support fog development would be perhaps Friday.

The next frontal passage will probably be late Friday or over the weekend, and may need wind/wave headlines at that point.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 54 32 57 38 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 57 34 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 59 33 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 59 42 59 45 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 59 36 57 42 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 59 32 59 37 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.