textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 157 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area through this afternoon. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected off and on through midweek next week. Gusts up to gale force will be possible early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The broad scale trough over the eastern one-third of the nation will gradually continue to slide eastward allowing our upper level pattern to become more and more progressive later today through Sunday. With higher heights and thicknesses, temperatures overnight tonight will be a touch higher than this morning and daytime highs on Sunday will be a touch higher as well with most of the region warming into the middle and upper 60s respectively.

Late Sunday eyes shift to our north and west as a rather robust mid and upper low begins to dig southward over the Red River Valley and eventually in the northwest Gulf. At the surface, a low pressure or at the very least a sharp surface trough develops and moves moves offshore toward the central Gulf by early Monday. At the same time a strong surface high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley will help tighten the pressure gradient especially over the Gulf waters. As the low continues to dive into the central Gulf there should be enough isentropic upglide to help generate some shower activity, albeit rather light in terms of amounts. QPF gradient will be an issue right over our CWFA as the coastal LA has the best shot at measurable precip vs southwest Mississippi where little may be realized late Sunday through Monday.

As the system moves over the Gulf, off of the natural baroclinic zone along the coast, the system gradually loses strengthen, and the upper level trough starts to flatten just a bit. That said, lower pressures will continue to be there as with the stronger pressure gradient offshore with persistent easterly flow. As for temperatures on Monday, with the cloudiness and slightly lower heights, expect temperatures to be a few degrees lower than Sunday which is roughly 10 or so degrees cooler than average for mid November. As the upper level pattern transitions back to a dry northwesterly flow and more insolation on Tuesday, temperatures bounce back once more, especially as an upper level ridge tries to build back in during the day on Tuesday. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Friday night) Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The southern stream disturbance responsible for Monday's precipitation should continue moving east across the Gulf early Tuesday as upper level high pressure slides east and expands across the southeastern CONUS. Although the primary upper level forcing should be shifting away from the region, the associated surface low or trough may be somewhat slower to depart. Consequently, a few lingering showers cannot be completely ruled out Tuesday morning, particularly across coastal southeast Louisiana. Farther inland, dry conditions should return more quickly. By Tuesday afternoon, most of the CWA should be dry as deeper moisture become increasingly displaced to the east and southeast. Highs should generally range from the upper 60s to around 70.

By Wednesday a warming trend should become more noticeable as upper level ridge centered to the northeast remains in place. Look for highs recovering into the lower to middle 70s across much of the CWA. Overnight lows should also gradually increase as the very dry continental airmass modifies and low level moisture begins recovering. By Thursday, temperatures should be near to slightly above normal across most of the region. Looking toward Friday, the forecast should remain predominantly dry as upper level ridging continues to influence the Gulf Coast. Highs may approach the upper 70s. (MEFFER)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions through the cycle with mostly clear skies today and tonight. Winds will still be northerly or northeasterly, but should begin to transition more easterly with time and increase during the morning Sunday. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Persistent cold air advection in the wake of the recent frontal passage will maintain periods of elevated northerly winds across the coastal waters through the weekend. Winds over all marine zones will generally remain in the 15 to 20 knot range, supporting Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. A more impactful period of hazardous marine conditions appears increasingly possible beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing through at least the middle of next week. As the approaching shortwave supports surface low development over the Gulf, high pressure building southward from the north will maintain a strong pressure gradient across the northern Gulf Coast. Depending on the eventual track and intensity of the low, sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 10 feet will be possible across the open Gulf waters Monday, with higher gusts potentially approaching or exceeding gale force. Thus, have issued a Gale Watch for waters south and west of the MS River. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all other marine areas due to the forecast persistent pressure gradient between the surface low and high pressure to the north. May not see much appreciable relief until the end of next week. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-557-577.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ531>536-541-543-557-577.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Monday night for GMZ553-554-570-572-575.