textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1107 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Dangerous heat will remain the primary concern today. Peak heat index values up to 110 degrees remain possible, with limited overnight relief. Heat continues to back down Friday with heat index numbers lower than heat advisory criteria through the weekend

- Afternoon/evening scattered rain chances increase today through the upcoming weekend as a front drifts into the area from the north. Repeated thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially where storms train. Additionally, a few isolated strong storms will be possible with gusty winds in excess of 40-50mph the main risk.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Not difficult to find the backdoor front that is to the north and east of the area moving slowly SW this morning. This front will stall today over or very close to the area and provide a corridor for sh/ts to develop and move. Most activity will develop during the heat of the day, so we should reach heat advisory conditions just as storms begin to develop. This should be a rinse and repeat for Fri as well. But we will begin to see a cold front moving SE at at a good pace by late Fri reaching our area by late Sat before stalling along or near the coast. Plenty of moisture along and ahead of the weekend front will help develop a good bit of sh/ts through the day as we reach convective temps which will be a bit lower over the weekend. Not everyone will get storms each day but most locations should get some rainfall at some point through the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The globals have come into somewhat better agreement with the ECM and GFS indicating an ULL over portions of the southeast to start the long term. Exact placement is still somewhat off with the latest GFS across the deep south and the ECM over the Tennessee River Valley. At the surface, not much of a change with the surface frontal boundary still meandering over the northern central Gulf Coast. In this pattern/solution, expect rain chances to reside into the start of the new workweek next week. If the GFS is anywhere close to being correct the upper levels will be quite chilly, which could lead to some locally stronger cells with small hail during peak heating when instability is maximized.

Going into Wednesday, both the GFS and ECM are roughly the same although temporally there are some slight changes. An H5 kicker from the north will dig just enough to grab the low in both models, but this occurs a bit quicker with the GFS. So the cold core low will not hang around very long before it opens up and moves downstream by mid week and with ECM only showing the low a bit further away, any time issues would be somewhat irrelevant in terms of sensible weather. There remains nonzero diurnally driven convection chances on Tuesday and Wednesday, however, the signal within the globals is a bit weaker as it appears the surface front will begin to decay late in the period.

Temperatures will start off somewhat cooler than normal with the upper level low over the region and continued rain/cloudiness during peak heating. But, if the globals are correct, inversely, as the POPs decrease temperatures should begin to increase, especially with the heights starting to rise. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR for most of the day at all sites. There will be better chances of TSRA today to show in this taf set with the possibility of MVFR to IFR conditions while the strongest move through.

MARINE

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

High pressure over the southeast gulf will keep a predominantly westerly to SW flow regime through the remainder of the week. There will be the usual diurnal increase in winds over the eastern waters where winds approach and sometimes slightly exceed 15 knots during the evening and part of the overnight hours before diminishing. A weak front will settle toward the northern gulf Thursday and remain nearby through the weekend, bringing increasing thunderstorm coverage. Seas will generally remain 1 to 3 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet offshore, although locally hazardous winds, waves, lightning, and reduced visibility will occur near stronger storms.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.