textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Through the end of the workweek, a fairly typical Summer pattern will be in place across the area. A weak upper level trough axis moving through the Tennessee Valley will continue to extend southwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Thursday, but overall forcing will remain limited across the region. PWATS will be near average through Thursday, but a plume of deeper moisture will feed into the area on Friday pushing PWATS up to around the 75th percentile. Overall, the main driver of convective activity through Friday will be the normal diurnally driven seabreeze cycle. Offshore convection will be in place in the early to mid- morning hours along a weak landbreeze boundary each day. By late morning and early afternoon, the landbreeze boundary will shift back onshore as a seabreeze boundary. As the seabreeze moves inland, in response to temperatures climbing into the lower 90s over land, scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up first along the coast. The seabreeze won't make it too far inland from the coast, but outflow boundaries from the initial convection will spread further inland and allow for additional convective activity. Boundary interactions between outflows and a developing lakebreeze around Lake Pontchartrain will further support additional convective activity in the afternoon hours each day. Rain chances will be near average in the 40 to 50 percent range through Thursday, but the increase in PWATS on Friday will support greater convective coverage and PoP of 50 to 70 percent. Severe potential will be low, but an isolated strong thunderstorm producing gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph and street flooding has a high likelihood of forming each day. Where it does not rain, seasonably warm conditions with heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected each day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The upcoming weekend will see continued higher PWATS of around the 75th percentile as the tropical moisture that fed into the region Friday lingers over the Gulf South. Convection will be continue to be entirely diurnally driven as weak upper level ridging sits over the area. Much like the days before, the seabreeze cycle will drive our convective activity with storms offshore in the morning gradually developing along the coast and then moving inland as the day proceeds. Heavy downpours of around 2 inches per hour will lead to some localized street flooding issues and winds could gust to 30 mph at times with the strongest storms. Temperatures will be near average in the lower 90s and heat indices will rise to between 100 and 105 each day. Pretty much a rinse and repeat pattern from the days before.

Monday is the more interesting day as a slow moving frontal boundary pushes southward into the region. Deep tropical moisture will still be in place over the area and moisture convergence ahead of the boundary will drive PWATS toward the daily max for this time of year with values of 2.3 to 2.4 inches expected. There is still uncertainty in the exact convective mode that will develop as this front sinks to the south, but convection will be less diurnally forced and more driven by the boundary itself. Model sounding profiles are moist adiabatic and very warm aloft indicating a high potential for very heavy rainfall to occur over the region as warm processes take hold in the upper levels. Rainfall rates of 3+ inches per hour are probable on Monday and flash flooding will be a greater concern across the entire forecast area. The severe potential is lower given a lack of both speed and directional shear, but some gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph could develop with the strongest convective activity. With high convective coverage and cloud cover in place, temperatures will also be cooler than average on Monday with readings generally remaining in the upper 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Scattered thunderstorm activity will be the primary concern for aviation operations both today and tomorrow. Storms will fire up after 18z and linger through 22 to 23z before dissipating. Locally gusty winds of 20 to 30 knots, brief reductions in visibility of 3 to 5 miles, ceilings of 2000 to 3000 feet, and lightning strikes could accompany these storms. PROB30 wording is in place for this afternoon to reflect this risk. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions will be the rule at all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Winds will remain from a WSW direction through much of the week and speeds will remain mostly around 10kt but a few days could rise to near 15kt. Winds shift to due south then to the southeast by the end of the week but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, mostly during the morning hours. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.