textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Dangerous heat will persist across the area this afternoon with peak heat index values generally between 105 and 110 degrees. Those with outdoor work and plans should take precautions to avoid heat-releated illness. Protective actions include staying hydrated, taking breaks in the shade or air conditioning, and wearing light-weight and light-colored clothing.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday, with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location.

- Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the work week. By the second half of the work week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Hazardous heat will continue to affect the area this afternoon mainly for areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor where afternoon heat index values will generally peak around 110 degrees and a heat advisory remains in effect.

Tomorrow will be similar, though the current forecast calls for heat index values to be a couple degrees lower, causing the peak values to come in just below heat advisory criteria. Given the borderline nature of tomorrow's heat index forecast, will hold off on a heat advisory for the time being to see how this afternoon's heat index forecast plays out and whether any adjustments to tomorrow's forecast are necessary. The most likely location for a heat advisory tomorrow would once again be across areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor.

On Sunday a weak "cold" front will drop into the local area. With the upper level trough associated with this front forecast to remain well north of the local area, the front itself is not likely to move all the way into the Gulf or result in a significant airmass change. Rather, the surface boundary will likely stall either near the coast or over the local area, providing a focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms wherever it stalls. While rain chances will be relatively high on Sunday (mainly in the 50 to 70 percent range), overall rain amounts are forecast to be low, with most places likely to see less than a tenth to a quarter inch of rain.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

In the wake of Sunday's "cold" front, slightly drier air will move into the area for the first 2-3 days of the work week. This should keep afternoon heat index values more in the "uncomfortable" 100-105 degree range rather than the "hazardous to your health if precautions aren't taken" range. The drier air will also allow overnight lows to fall to near normal levels for a couple days with afternoon temperatures rising a couple degrees above normal given the low cloud cover across the area.

Moving into the second half of the week, upper level high pressure will breakdown as a trough moves into the upper/middle Mississippi valley. With the local area situated on the western periphery of low level high pressure, onshore winds will bring moisture back into the area as well. This will cause afternoon heat index values to rise again, potentially reaching hazardous levels by Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will be highest (30-40%) in coastal areas where sea and lake breeze boundaries will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered convective initiation.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Outside of any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Probability of showers/storms is highest at GPT, where a TEMPO group has been included. PROB30s have been included at ASD and MCB as well, but elsewhere probabilities are too low to include at this time and any convection will need to be handled by short term amendments.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots late tonight through Sunday night across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the work week, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ056>058-064-070- 076>087-090>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ083>088.

GM...None.