textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the next several days. Chances of severe weather and heavy rain will be low, a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters.

- Heat index values will be in the 105 to 110 degree range on several days and Heat Advisories may be necessary.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Upper ridging was centered over North Carolina this morning, with troughing over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered northeast of Nashville. Onshore flow has aided in production of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this morning along the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts and have spread inland over the last few hours. Away from convection, temperatures were right around 90 at noon CDT.

The local sounding was a bit drier this morning, with a precipitable water value of 1.47 inches, which is actually close to the 25th percentile climatologically. That would tend to indicate that we may not see a lot of development of thunderstorms over land today, and most of the convection allowing models agree with that assessment. However...what we're seeing on radar indicates that the GFS and CAMs aren't wet enough. Will be carrying at least a mention of convection from Interstate 12 southward this afternoon.

The global models overall try to expand the upper ridging across a large portion of the country, but both the GFS and ECMWF operational models leave a bit of a weakness between two lobes of a ridge, with that weakness over the middle or lower Mississippi River Valley. The question is exactly when the most significant weakness happens, with the ECMWF indicating Sunday, and the GFS on Monday. That day will have the most widespread coverage of convection due to the slightly cooler 500 mb temperatures and slightly better lapse rates.

We'll accept that the ECMWF/NBM trend of higher PoPs may be more reasonable for the next couple days and not adjust away from that toward the GFS.

Heat advisories will not be issued for now as the column will be ventilated each day. But temps will still be just under criteria so a large amount of the area will still reach around 105 to 108 HI each day during the afternoon hours, and could still briefly touch 110 if convection fails to develop. It wouldn't take much of a change in expected conditions to necessitate advisories, so we'll reassess on a day to day basis.

There's little day to day change in forecast temperatures, with any deviation from those numbers likely to be determined by when and where convection develops each day. Unlikely to make any significant adjustments to NBM temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Going into early next week, the ridge, albeit weaker will remain over the region with the 594dm dome over the southeast US. This feature doesn't really move much through the week and settles right over the area through the end of the long term. In a general sense, any troughing tries to dip to the south of 35N across the lower Mississippi Valley but doesn't look to be particularly successful. This will continue to promote near to above average temperatures. With southerly low level flow, moisture will continue to advect into the region from the Gulf/Tropics. Temperatures in the lower to mid 90s plus moderate humidity values will again fuel the potential need for heat headlines at midweek next week. The good news is with the rich low level flow along with sea/lake breezes each day, convection will be possible during peak heating, which could help a bit with the heat. Although, at this juncture nothing more than climo POPs given placement of the ridge and at least a bit of subsidence. Also, with a bit more dry air aloft, the more robust updrafts will likely because strong gusty winds.

There's once again no real day to day change in temperature forecasts, therefore, no real need to make adjustments.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions should be the rule through the cycle outside of any convection that develops during the day on Saturday. Covered most locations outside of GPT with PROBS for this potential, but coverage looks to remain a bit limited. Otherwise, southerly winds will remain rather light and variable. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and direction will vary through midweek next week, becoming more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. The overall gradient is expected to remain relatively weak which is why winds struggle to exceed 10 knots and seas/waves mostly under a couple feet. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day. A few may be stronger and could produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts (especially during the morning hours), and locally hazardous seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.