textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 643 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Patchy light to moderate fog will be possible tonight mainly along the coast and over portions of southern MS but overall the threat of dense fog appears somewhat lower than earlier anticipated.

- A strong trough will move through the region late Wednesday. This will drive a cold front across the region with showers and thunderstorms impacting the area during the overnight hours Wednesday night. This system will have the potential to bring a few strong to severe storms with all modes of severe weather possible, and the entire area will have the potential of seeing strong to severe storms. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates as this threat evolves.

- In the wake of the cold front Wednesday night, much cooler and drier air will move into the area for about 36 to 48 hours. Temperatures will moderate quickly for the weekend, but another shot of much cooler air will arrive Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

(Through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Shortwave over middle Tennessee continued to shift eastward, and earlier isolated convection has dissipated. Shortwave ridging will move into the area over the next 18 hours. To the west, an upper low was over Baja California, with a northern stream shortwave near the Washington coast. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the eastern Gulf, with a frontal boundary from Ontario to near Kansas City to southern New Mexico. Late evening temperatures were in the upper 60s and lower 70s with dew points mid 60s to around 70. Some concern about potential fog development closer to sunrise, primarily in coastal areas. Not seeing any current indications that probabilities are high enough to justify an advisory, even in coastal areas.

System over Baja California will move eastward over the next 48 hours and gradually open into a wave that will be over central Texas at sunset Wednesday. The airmass will remain rather moist for today with precipitable water values near 1.3 inches, which is somewhere around the 80th percentile climatologically. By sunset Wednesday, those values are around 1.5 inches, which is around the 90th percentile. There will be enough moisture and instability around to allow the development of some scattered showers by late Wednesday afternoon across about the northwest half of the area. Rain amounts should be light.

Much above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows mid 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The main concern early in this portion of the forecast package will be related to the shortwave in Texas Wednesday evening moving eastward across the local area overnight Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Precipitable water values will be briefly between 1.5 and 1.7 inches Wednesday night, which is well above the 90th percentile but short of the daily max. GFS forecast soundings do show instability, with CAPE values around 1000 J/kg in some areas. Lapse rates are around 6.5C/km, while shear in the lower levels remains fairly weak. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across east Texas Wednesday afternoon and move eastward across the area overnight. With upper support expected to be pulling off to the northeast during the evening hours, the most likely scenario is that the line of storms will be weakening as it shifts eastward across the local area. While all modes of severe weather appear possible, the main concern would be damaging winds. With a progressive system expected, rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches certainly looks reasonable, with isolated heavier totals.

Behind the convective line and cold frontal passage, much cooler air will arrive for a brief stay for Thursday into Friday. Highs Thursday could be as much as 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Wednesday, with highs in the lower and middle 60s not out of the question, especially if clouds are slow to clear. If we do clear out Thursday, we'll have to monitor fire weather conditions as some guidance has dew points falling into the 30s during the day. In most spring post frontal scenarios, guidance doesn't go low enough on dew points. Add in the potential for 15-20 mph sustained winds, and it's going to be a concern. Fortunately, fuels should be wet, but it's something to keep an eye on.

Upper flow becomes zonal for Friday and Saturday, and as the surface high shifts eastward, the airmass should modify pretty quickly. However, Friday morning is going to be pretty chilly in most areas, at least compared to the last week or so. Much of the area is likely to see morning lows in the 40s, and won't rule out upper 30s in some well protected areas. Highs Friday afternoon should get back into the 70s, and probably pretty close to 80 Saturday and Sunday.

A northern stream shortwave is expected to push a cold front across the area Sunday night into Monday, with a chance of showers and storms accompanying it. A more substantial cool off is expected behind that front for the first half of next week. It's entirely possible that high temperatures on Monday will need to be lowered in later forecast packages if clouds remain over the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Complete cornucopia of conditions across the area. At issuance BTR was showing VFR however, low cigs are likely right around the airport and is likely just not being detected by the instruments. Where as half of the terminals are reporting MVFR cigs and even ASD is showing LIFR cigs and vsbys. By 15/16z all terminals should be in MVFR if not VFR as low cigs start to rise. MVFR cigs will likely redevelop overnight. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

With high pressure centered well to the east and a front dropping down the Plains we will continue to see onshore flow today. As low pressure deepens and moves into the Great Lakes driving the cold front towards the Lower MS Valley Wednesday these winds will strengthen to around 15 knots ahead of the cold front. There may be a weak low develop along the front as it moves across the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night with strong offshore winds quickly developing behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions will quickly develop and we could even see a period of Gale conditions on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front as it moves through the coastal waters Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. These storms could also bring very strong marine winds and even a few waterspouts. Hazardous conditions are likely to continue through the daytime hours Thursday, and perhaps into Thursday night before subsiding. Another period of hazardous conditions is anticipated beyond the end of this forecast package around Sunday night or Monday of next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.