textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning.

- Dry weather is expected until at least Tuesday. A quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances Tuesday or Wednesday. An additional weather system could move across the area next Friday or Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected for most of the period, especially during the workweek next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Upper trough axis has moved to near the New England Coast. Upper ridging was noted along the lee side of the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the southern and western Gulf. A weak surface front/wind shift was near the Arkansas/Louisiana border region at early evening. Under mostly clear skies, late evening temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Upper ridging will gradually shift eastward into the Plains States and western Gulf on Sunday. The frontal system to our north will sag southward over the next 12 to 18 hours and be offshore by midday Saturday. A large area of high pressure at the surface will become centered over the eastern third of the country. Doubtful we'll even see much in the way of clouds, let alone precipitation. By Monday morning, an upper low will be located over Baja California.

Temperatures on Friday got a little warmer than originally anticipated, with much of the area seeing highs in the middle 70s. Forecast soundings would indicate Saturday highs should be 8-10F cooler than Friday, with the NBM numbers looking fairly representative. Sunday would tack about 3 to 5 degrees onto that, with the exception being the Mississippi coast, where an afternoon sea breeze would likely cutoff highs in the mid 60s. Overnight lows will be a little on the cool side for early February on Sunday morning, mid 30s to mid 40s. Won't rule out some patchy frost in well protected areas Sunday morning, but not anticipating a freeze at this time. Sunday night lows should be quite a bit warmer than Sunday morning, perhaps as much as 10 degrees in some areas.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday night) Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The southern stream shortwave/low over Baja California Monday morning will be driven eastward by an upper trough moving onto the Pacific Coast at midweek. The Baja system will move along the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with ridging returning to the area in its wake until Friday. Another southern stream shortwave could produce some convection next Friday or Saturday, but there have been significant differences in strength and timing between operational GFS and ECMWF runs that will need to resolve before high confidence in details occurs.

Precipitable water values get up to about the 75th percentile, around 1.1 inches Tuesday, but instability and shear are very limited, with the end result probably being some isolated to scattered rain showers. Many areas could remain dry. Somewhat better instability and shear could be in place for next weekend's shortwave, but not going to get too far into the weeds on that one until we see somewhat more of a consensus solution. Current forecast will carry a chance of thunder for portions of the area Friday night, but it can't be ruled out entirely for Friday or Saturday.

Temperatures...in one word...warm. Highs generally in the 70s with lows mainly in the 50s. That would be roughly 10F above normal, or a little more. Highs could be slightly cooler along the Mississippi coast on days where winds retain a southerly component. Won't rule out a few locations challenging the 80 degree mark around midweek if rain doesn't develop.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period and beyond.

MARINE

Issued at 1109 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Will hold onto Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines through Saturday morning for the open waters. Improving conditions are expected to arrive late in the day Saturday, with more favorable conditions for marine operations anticipated for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.