textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 510 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Well above average high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s will occur this week. Heat index values will climb into the upper 90s.

- The threat for thunderstorms, some possible strong to severe will continue this week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

We remain in NW flow, so no changes in severe storm expectations. The challenge is timing these disturbances moving through and if they hold together. This is the ongoing battle every year in the spring. If these were synoptic systems, it would be much easier to fcast, but since they are mesoscale systems, they can be very fickle. Just like Sat morning, it is very difficult to tell if they will hold together through the most stable time of day. All parameters are available but there is no bouancy available from heating which one would normally see as a prohibiting factor. But these disturbances are MCS features which thrive on night instability. They need lift, but hey produce their own lift via outflow boundaries. The same is going on this morning over an area from Arkansas to TX which should follow much the same path as the previous systems. We could see these storms approach the area around or just after daylight today. Monday and Tue look dry as the weakness allowing these disturbances to train into our are moves north. A cold front will slowly move toward the area bringing higher chances of rain to the area once again after Tue.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

An upper-level ridge remains centered near Mexico City through Tuesday and continues to dominate the local forecast area. 500 mb heights indicate modest strengthening of the ridge, supporting continued anomalous warmth across the region. Weakening of the northern part of the ridge axis over the Great Lakes comes as a mid- level trough translates eastward through the mid-Mississippi Valley and erodes that part of the high pressure system. However, the base of this trough remains well north of the CWA, resulting in little to no direct impact locally. As a result, expect another day of well above normal temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s...approaching daily records in some locations.

Attention then turns to a trailing shortwave trough trailing roughly 24 hours behind the initial system. This feature tracks slightly farther south compared to the prvious trough, which may begin to suppress ridging over the Gulf Coast somewhat by Wednesday. While no organized frontal passage is expected at that time, subtle height falls and weak boundary interactions could support isolated convection, mainly across the northern portions of the CWA. Confidence in coverage remains low given limited forcing and persistent ridging influence.

By Thursday, the trough is forecast to amplify and dig farther south as it progresses eastward. By this time, the trough axis will be well east of the area, but a weak or backdoor boundary may sag into the region and potentially stall. If this occurs, it would introduce a more favorable pattern for increased rain chances heading into the late week period. While this setup could offer some relief from ongoing dry conditions, confidence in boundary placement and persistence remains moderate at best.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A mix of IFR to VFR cigs and vis this morning will become all VFR within a few hours after sunrise. This should repeat again overnight tonight toward sunrise as well. Storms just north of the area moving SE, will impact several terminals starting this morning which will cause IFR conditions at the terminals they impact.

MARINE

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Persistent south-southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots will remain in place through the middle of this week. Seas will remain well below any hazardous limits at 1 to 3 feet through the period. The greatest concern will be any shower or thunderstorm impacts associated with disturbances that move towards the coastal waters through the week. These disturbances will cause locally higher winds and seas around the storms they produce. Afterwards, winds may become light and variable for 3-6 hours before the synoptic south-southeast winds take over again.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.