textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs mainly in the upper 90s to the low 100s with heat index values climbing into the lower to mid 110s. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for today and an excessive heat watch for Monday. Into the new week at least Heat Advisories are anticipated. The impact of the afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal overnight lows.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Several locations rolled into the upper 90s and 100F range yesterday and this is expected to continue for the next several days. We may be able to shave a few degrees off highs as we move through the week, but that's not saying much. Heat index values will remain very elevated as well. Looks like we are in at least one of those 2 week periods during the summer that we get some of the hottest most oppressive weather. These 2 week periods can come together or seperately and this one looks like it will be seperated. But for now, we are stuck with it. The only relief will be a cooling storm or two that develops right at the peak heating times. Storms will still be isolated to scattered and mainly along the cbrz boundary since heating alone will not be enough to break the stability. This makes sense, since it is this stability that helps cause the intense heating.

We have to look at the big picture to see why this is occurring and what will cause it to end. At least in the short term, the old SW upper/mid level continental high has migrated over the SE CONUS causing the strong stability and allowing the strong heating. This stacked high will meander around for the next several days, but will remain over or near enough to keep the heat throttle to the floor. What will cause it to end is already in the works well to the west. An upper/mid level ridge that extends from the central Baha well to the west is getting organized and will continue to strengthen over the coming days. This will slowly make its way NE into the SW CONUS over the coming days. As the high moves NE, it amplifies into the polar jet shoving it north over the western half of the country which in turn causes troughing down stream to the east. I'm sure the picture is now coming into view of how this heat will eventually break. The troughing forces the high over us to move south and weaken. This is very evident by models dropping the current mid 70s dew pts into the mid 60s over the central gulf by mid week. A strong bullseye of lower dew pts over the central gulf actually shows up by late week in association with this stacked high. This time of year, it is very hard to find dew pts in the 60s over any part of the gulf so it is a testimate to how strong, suppressive and dry this stacked high is, even in an eventual weakened form.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The long term still continues to look hot, at least during the workweek, with the upper ridge stretched from the Desert Southwest across much of the northern Gulf Wednesday night. But there are signs of at least some minor relief.

A northern stream shortwave will serve to split the ridge in two, with the axis of the trough at about 86W. This will put the local area in northwesterly mid level flow around Friday or Saturday. Precipitable water levels are expected to be at or above the 50th percentile climatologically for the end of the week, and should be sufficient to produce some convection during the heat of the day, with perhaps the best chance on Saturday. This will bring us slightly better chances for precipitation by Friday and/or Saturday, and perhaps a brief period of more tolerable temperatures. Even at that though, we're talking probabilities below 50 percent, so not a sure bet by any means.

Until that shortwave arrives, above normal temperatures are expected to continue, with highs in the mid and upper 90s on Thursday, and perhaps Friday. Saturday highs look to be slightly closer to normal, which is within a degree or two of the 90 mark. Lower to middle 90s looks entirely reasonable for Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR will be found at most terminals through this taf cycle. As we move into the later part of the day, TSRA activity will begin to develop mainly along and near the coast but should remain scattered. Those sites with the highest chances of getting sh/ts will be shown with timing.

MARINE

Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms will be possible mainly toward sunrise. Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside any storms.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100.

GM...None. MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

Extreme Heat Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.