textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 507 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect through 7am this morning for most of southeast Louisiana as well as all of southwest and coastal Mississippi.

- Extreme heat is expected this weekend. Heat advisories have been issued for heat index values of around 110 degrees for today. Heat advisories may be re-issued over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Rain or heat is the main story of this fcast. The heat is not a problem when its cloudy and raining. But let the rain end and sun come out releasing all that water into humidity and we get high heat index values. Flood watches and heat advisories are not found together during the same time frame but they definitely can be adjacent. This is the case for today as flood watches will be found where the highest probs are for training storms today. This is just north of the area. This does not mean there will be no storms or showers anywhere, but instead of them developing and training over areas, the sh/ts will be moving.

All departing tropical/extra-tropical systems leave wake troughs almost always oriented in the direction the system departed the area. This system is no different and its main wake troughing is located just north of our area in a west to east orientation this morning. Another weaker wake trough is located near the Miss Sound into New Orleans as well. But with this weaker one, a cap has developed over it not allowing a lot of activity to form. This is not the case for the trough to the north of the area. This makes it very challenging to know where to put the heat advisory. It may be placed too far north if this line sinks south faster than models indicate. This trough also provides an are where sh/ts can develop easier along it, and it provides a conduit for storms to move from the west along it. Any additional rainfall could quickly cause additional issues today with all grounds being absolutely saturated. Long story longer, basically we should see most sh/ts develop during the late afternoon through evening hours today then decay toward Sat morning. The wake troughing remains but the building ridge will begin to weakly cap it for Sat. Sunday will show stronger capping across the entire area leaving a much easier decision of where to place the heat advisory. Monday should be much the same as Sunday. Today through Monday, we should see several storms taken off the table each day until they are only isolated to scattered.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Models continue to advertise a quieter yet hot forecast for the first half of next week. A ridge takes over reducing rain chances and bringing back the heat with the possibilities of additional heat advisories being needed Monday and Tuesday. With good agreement between the medium range guidance and their respective ensembles there is no major deviations from the NBM apparent.

After additional scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms a few times this weekend we will finally begin to dry out. That weakness that will be in place over the Lower MS Valley and eastern TX this weekend between the ridge over the Gulf and the ridge over the Baja and western Mexico will fill in heading into the new work week. The ridge over the Gulf and stretching east across the FL peninsula and over the Bahamas will build west-northwest. The increase in suppression and lower PWATS will lead to much lower PoPs Monday and Tuesday but we will still have abundant boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Combine that with h85 temps around 19C leading to highs in the lower to mid 90s and heat index values will climb into the mid 100s to near 110.

Things begin to change mid week as the ridge to the west starts to build and take over. In response broad L/W troughing starts to take over across the eastern CONUS. This will allow storms to return and possibly some relief in the heat. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

IFR to MVFR cigs this morning at all terminals will lift into VFR levels by mid to late morning. Vis should stay MVFR to VFR. There is a chance of TSRA causing IFR conditions temporarily again today but most of this should be mid to late afternoon. Tonight should be very similar to this morning with IFR and MVFR cigs/vis.

MARINE

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Small craft advisories will be lowered this morning as winds ease. Moving into the weekend and early next week, a broad area of high pressure will build back over the eastern Gulf waters. Persistent onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet can be expected today through early next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-071-076>087-089-090-092-094-096-098>100.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083-086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.