textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- No significant weather-related hazards are expected through Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will begin returning Sunday, mainly for areas west of the I-55 corridor.

- Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A deep layer ridge axis will maintain an anonymously below normal dry airmass in place through the short-term. PWs at times will be around the 10th percentile compared to climatology for mid-May. As a result, dry conditions with little to no cloud cover will prevail across the CWA. A weak cold front with subtle "cooling" behind it along with light winds and a deep layer of dry air throughout the troposphere will aid in one more below normal night tonight mainly for areas east of I-55. This will be especially true for areas just inland from the MS coast. Near to slightly above normal temps are expected on Friday with lots of sunshine and dry air.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

As the surface ridge axis continues to move slowly eastward through the weekend, return flow will become increasingly established. The net result will be a moistening trend which will initially result in a bit more cloud cover. By Sunday, marginal instability with a weakening cap will be sufficient to produce isolated to scattered convection for areas mainly west of I-55. Marginal to moderate instability and sufficient moisture depth and little to no cap will maintain slight chance to chance POPs through the remainder of the extended forecast. Again, the best chances will be mainly along and west of I-55 where the best moisture will reside.

There are indications that one or two mid/upper level shortwaves may impact western portions of the CWA by the end of the period. This added dynamical forcing along with favorable thermodynamic parameters will boost rain chances to likely by the end of the period for areas mainly west of I-55. Overall shear values remain quite low through next week, especially the low level shear.

Temperatures will be at or just above climatology through the extended period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the entire forecast cycle. Winds will generally be light and variable overnight and turn more southerly during the day.

MARINE

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The proximity to a surface ridge axis will maintain light and variable winds and relatively flat seas through Friday morning. Weak onshore flow will begin to develop on Friday and continue to slowly strengthen through the weekend. Seas will slowly respond and build to 3-4 feet by early next week. From Tuesday onward, the overall southeast gradient flow does weaken with seas slowly subsiding in response. Convection will be fairly isolated across the coastal waters early next week. By midweek, rain chances will increase across the coastal waters especially across the sounds and nearshore waters as sufficient moisture and instability finally advects into this area.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.