textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1015 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle and late part of the week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas.

- Nightly fog development is possible through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1015 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Upper level ridging over the Gulf moves slowly eastward and is just off the mid-Atlantic coast by Friday. This movement is matched with a slowly advancing trough over the west that deepens with its easterly movement. Warm, moist Gulf air wraps northward between the two circulations and brings increasing afternoon rain chances through the short term period. Some rain, in moderation, wouldn't be a bad thing over most of our areas. Daytime high temperatures will be unseasonably warm. Overnight moist air and temperatures in the 60s will be conducive to fog formation, but will have to wait for details each night before making any calls on fog versus low stratus. Tonight there are signals in the St. Charles, Lafourche, Terrebonne parishes and right along the Gulf coast for light patchy fog.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1015 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

As the aformentioned upper trough deepens and moves to the east it cuts off over the Baja Peninsula and funnels moist Pacific air over the northern Gulf Coast. This strengthens rain chances through the weekend with PoPs in the 60s over the western half of the CWA. With the cutoff low bringing deep southerly flow into the area the temperatures should remain quite warm.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Continued low CIGs with conditions falling to IFR at most terminals throught the next several hours and lasting generally through sunrise. Conditions similar tomorrow with lifting of CIGs through the day and returning to MVFR and near IFR by the end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1015 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Nearshore water temperatures continue to warm up, with most water temperature observations in the mid and upper 60s. The exception is the waters of the Mississippi River, where water temperatures were in the 50s earlier today (52F at Carrolton Gauge, 54F at Pilottown and 59F at Pilot Station). That would signal a continuing threat for fog development over the river during the overnight hours the next few nights. While most of the stretch of the river isn't in a marine zone, mariners on the river need to be aware of the threat.

Winds likely to remain around 15 knots or a little less over most of the waters, so no indications of reaching Small Craft Advisory levels through the period. Won't rule out Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines on occasion if winds are a little stronger than anticipated.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.