textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of the River Parishes and the Bayou region around Houma and Thibodaux through 9 AM CST.

- Portions of the area along/north of I-12 in LA as well as the MS coast could see sub freezing overnight lows for 3 consecutive mornings, through Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Upper trough axis was well to the east of the local area this evening, extending from eastern Canada to the Carolinas, with the next shortwave over Minnesota.

At the surface, the axis of high pressure extended from the western Gulf into west Tennessee. Low pressure over Wisconsin had a cold front into southern Kansas. Arctic high pressure was north of that front over the Canadian Rockies. Locally, clear skies across the area with temperatures mainly in the 30s away from marine influences, although a few locations have dropped below 30.

The upper trough won't be making much more eastward progress, but will have multiple shortwaves dropping into the base of the trough over the next 48 hours. One such shortwave will reinforce the cold air late Monday afternoon. The airmass will remain very dry, with precipitable water values near or below 0.40 inches through Tuesday afternoon. Could start to see some high clouds by Tuesday night, but no precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours.

High temperatures the next couple days should be warmer than what was seen Sunday afternoon, and should primarily be in the 55 to 60 degree range. Monday night lows won't be quite as chilly as the current overnight period, but northern portions of the area are likely to still fall below freezing. Southeast winds and some clouds should bring milder overnight lows Tuesday night, ranging from mid 30s across northeast portions of the area to the mid 40s south of Lake Pontchartrain.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Upper flow is expected to remain zonal for Wednesday through Friday. The best chance for rain during this workweek will be late Wednesday into Thursday as a southern stream shortwave moves along the northern Gulf Coast. Both the ECMWF and GFS have become somewhat less focused with this system, with light rain the most likely result. Temperatures will move above normal on Wednesday, and moreso Wednesday night through Friday, with highs Thursday and Friday potentially around 70.

Beyond Friday, forecast confidence drops considerably, as the medium range modeling is struggling to handle the potential development of an upper low in the vicinity of Arizona, and the resultant split flow. Noted very significant temperature spreads (30+ degrees F) between the NBM 10th-90th percentiles for both high and low temperatures across portions of the area both Saturday and Sunday from the daytime guidance, as well as within the ECMWF ensemble. The standard deviation in the ECMWF ensemble temperatures is about 10 degrees for most of our sites next weekend. The GFS 10th to 90th spread was about 25F. While the means and 50th percentiles might not pose significant issues next weekend, the colder end of guidance envelopes would bring wintry precipitation types into play. Will not adjust temperature guidance away from deterministic at this time due to high uncertainty. One safe assumption to make is that the forecast for Saturday and Sunday is likely to change significantly between now and then, as confidence in the eventual solution improves. Just a question of which direction.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR this cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1124 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A reinforcing cold front moves into the Gulf by Monday night. Winds may bump back up to exercise caution category but not looking like Small Craft Advisory conditions at the moment. A short-term period of return flow does develop mid week as post frontal ridging situated north of the region slides east before the next cold front comes through late in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 56 29 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 60 33 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 58 32 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 58 41 58 46 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 56 34 56 41 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 56 29 57 36 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ056>060- 065>067-087>090.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.