textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- A very classic summer pattern will continue with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Tonight through Monday, the normal summertime pattern will dominate primarily with afternoon and early evening showers and storms expected daily. Rain chances will increase as we go through the weekend with coverage increasing during this period as well. The main concerns with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty sub-severe winds (40-50mph). PWs are quite high with values around 2.0", so some street flooding and ponding of roads will be possible with these storms, especially if there is any training. Localized flash flooding will be a greater concern for urban areas and low-lying areas.

Temperatures will be quite warm through the weekend with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values between 103-108 degrees daily through Sunday. If PoPs are lower than expected, heat will be a larger concern. Conversely, if PoPs are higher than expected, heat will be a lesser concern. MSW

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Monday through Wednesday, a weak boundary will linger over the area. This boundary will combine with abundant Gulf moisture that will be approaching the area to enhance rainfall chances. PWs will be above the 90th percentile for SPC sounding climatology, which will allow for quite efficient rainfall and warm rain processes. Flash flooding will be the biggest concern Monday through Wednesday as this boundary remains over the area. Generally, 2-4 inches will be expected Monday through Wednesday with locally higher amounts possible. A slight risk of heavy rainfall (level 2 out of 4) has been outlooked for our area by WPC, which highlights the rainfall concerns.

Thursday and onward, ridging builds back into the area and we start to return to our normal summertime pattern with daily afternoon/early evening rain chances. MSW

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the cycle. However, like the last several days there will be the potential for afternoon convection across the region where VIS/CIGs could be reduced to MVFR or lower in the heaviest shower/storm activity. Otherwise, winds will remain light and mostly southerly. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Mostly onshore flow as southerly winds are forecast through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. Mostly favorable marine conditions expected outside of the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Locally, winds and seas may increase in and around convection and waterspouts will also be possible with the best rain chances being overnight and during the morning hours over the open Gulf.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.