textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1049 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Another line of severe storms will move through the region late on Sunday ahead of the next cold front. This line of storms could produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

- There is increasing confidence that below freezing temperatures will be noted along and north of the I-12 corridor Tuesday morning.

- Gale conditions are forecast to impact the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday behind a strong cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The main concern continues the passage of a strong cold front through the region Sunday night and the prospect of both a significant cool down and another round of severe storms. Before this next system impacts us, the weekend will be very pleasant. After some patchy morning fog, skies will clear and temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Sunday will be even warmer with highs climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s beneath partly cloudy skies. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s and some radiation fog will form over inland areas. Regions that have seen recent heavy rainfall including parts of metro Baton Rouge, southwest Mississippi, and the Northshore will have the highest potential for fog this morning due to the high soil moisture content in place. Tomorrow night, conditions look less favorable for fog development as winds turn slightly stronger ahead of the next developing storm system.

This next system will start to rapidly deepen on Sunday and winds will increase through the day from the south and southwest. Fairly breezy conditions with winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected by the early evening hours on Sunday. The onshore flow regime will also be very deep and this will allow for moisture to feed back into the region. PWATS will rise to around 1.25 inches and there will be little in the way of convective inhibition by the late afternoon and early evening hours. This is most noted by very steep mid-level lapse rates of between 6.5 and 7.5 C/KM. The end result is that mixed layer CAPE values will rise to between 1000 and 1500 J/KG by the evening hours. A strong and fast moving cold front will push into this warm and unstable airmass allowing for the development of a convective line over the Arklatex. This line will begin to take on bowing segments and transition to a quasi- linear convective system or QLCS as it approaches our forecast area. This transition will be due to the development of a 40 to 50 knot low level jet over the region that will help to increase effective bulk shear to around 40 knots. These stronger winds aloft will occasionally descend to the surface creating pockets of damaging wind gusts associated with small bowing segments. A few meso-vorticies will also develop along the line as it progresses to the east due to ample directional shear in excess of 200 m2/s2 in the lowest 1 to 3km of the atmosphere. These areas of rotation could become enhanced and produce several tornadoes, especially where the aforementioned bowing segments develop along the line. The most likely timing for this convective line to move through is generally from late Sunday evening into early Monday morning. Further refinement of the timing will occur as high resolution convectively aided models become available.

After the front clears the area, strong negative vorticity, dry air, and cold air advection will take hold. Skies will clear rapidly and temperatures will plunge into the 40s by late Sunday night. Winds will also be very strong at 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts as an intense 1030mb high pressure system builds in. These stronger winds will continue through Monday afternoon and a wind advisory will likely be needed for areas south of the tidal lakes including metro New Orleans. As a 925mb thermal trough dives into the area, highs will be a good 20 degrees below average in the low to mid 50s. By Monday night, winds will begin to diminish as the high becomes more centered over the area, and this will allow for a light freeze to impact most locations along and north of I-10/12. Lows could fall as cold as the upper 20s in the river drainages and in southwest Mississippi with lower 30s expected along the interstate corridor. Further to the south, lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s are expected in metro New Orleans and along the Louisiana coast. Given the warm period we have experienced and the greening of the plants, a freeze warning has a high likelihood of being issued for Monday night.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday night) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A broad and deep longwave trough will continue to dominate the eastern half of the CONUS throughout the long term period. Tuesday will see a reinforcing front slip through. This front will be moisture starved as northerly flow and strong deep layer subsidence continues across the region. As a result, nothing more than some passing high cloud cover is expected with this frontal passage. The main impact will a continuation of much colder than average conditions Tuesday into Tuesday night. Highs will only warm into the mid to upper 50s in the afternoon and lows will plunge into the 30s and lower 40s Tuesday night. The Pearl and Pascagoula River basins could touch freezing once again. Wednesday through Friday night will see gradually warming temperatures as the heart of the 925mb thermal trough axis shifts to the east. Highs on Wednesday will still be below average in the mid to upper 60s and lows will drop a good 20 degrees on average into the 40s for most locations as dry air and clear skies persist. Thursday will finally see daytime highs return to more average readings with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s. Continued warming will occur on Friday as a ridge over the Rockies starts to expand eastward and overall warming aloft increases further. Highs will easily reach into the lower 80s. However, strong radiational cooling at night will allow lows to once again fall into the 50s for Friday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Boundary layer decoupling has already started in a few locations this evening as strong radiational cooling is supported by clear skies and light winds. This has allowed fog to form and this fog will continue to expand over the next few hours. MCB, HDC, BTR, and ASD should all see a period of IFR visibility and ceiling restrictions develop as a surface based inversion forms between 10z and 14z. This shallow inversion will quickly mix out between 14z and 15z with a return to VFR conditions anticipated at all of the terminals by 15z.

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A broad area of high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will bring generally favorable marine conditions through Saturday night. Winds will become southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots today before increasing to 10 to 15 knots tonight. Seas will remain at 3 feet or less. The pressure gradient will tighten on Sunday and southerly winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots by the afternoon. Sunday night into early Monday will see a strong cold front pass through the waters. As the front passes, winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase to 30 to 35 knots with higher gusts. These gale conditions will push seas over 12 feet in the open Gulf waters creating very hazardous boating conditions. The gale conditions will linger into Monday night before gradually easing on Tuesday as another high pressure system becomes more centered over the waters. As the high becomes centered over the waters on Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and fall to 10 knots or less. Seas will also decrease back to 3 feet or less by Wednesday morning.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.