textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

- Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills overnight will impact the entire region until everyone warms back above freezing late this morning. One more night of a light to moderate freeze for most of the area and a new Freeze Watch has been issued most of the area south of I-10 in SELA.

- Gusty winds continue over the coastal waters but will quickly begin to relax after sunrise.

- The best chance for rain will be with a cold front overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Quiet and mostly cold forecast. This morning will be dangerously cold for much of the area as temps will likely be in the teens to mid 20s for much of the region and wind chills in the single digits to mid teens. We will warm up above freezing today across the entire area but it will still be quite chilly. H925 temps will only be around -2 to -4 and with a subtle s/w embedded in the northwest flow moving across the region today we will likely see decent cloud cover through midday. Both of these will hinder temps suggesting highs only in the lower to mid 40s. High pressure will continue to build into the region and the clouds we will see will also move out before we head into the evening and that will help to set the stage for one more chilly night across the area.

With high pressure sitting right over the region, very dry boundary layer conditions, light winds, and clearing if not clear skies, radiational cooling conditions will be quite optimal. The one thing to watch is how much WAA we have in the LL and yes h925 and h85 but that may be just late enough that the impacts on cooling would be minimal. With that most of the area will see a moderate to light freeze with lows ranging from the mid 20s across coastal and southwest MS and lower to mid 30s south of the lake. A freeze Watch has been issued for the Bayou parishes and portions of the Southshore.

High pressure will slide east with s/w ridging just west of the area today which will finally allow use to see some decent moderation. H925 temps climb to 6-7C and this should mix down leading to highs back in the upper 50s to lower 60s. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Main forecast issue in the extended is the front overnight Tuesday and through the first half of the day Wednesday. There are some timing issues but the general idea is it will move into the northwestern portions of the CWA after midnight, perhaps just before sunrise Wednesday. Overall stuck closely to the NBM but the biggest question is timing of the front and given the way the front will be oriented and a strong s/w dropping down the backside of the L/W trough we are leaning to a slightly slower front meaning slightly warmer lows Wednesday morning in the northwest but not going to make any significant shifts as confidence is low and if the front is only 3-6 hours faster morning lows could be 5 degrees or more cooler in that area.

Tuesday will be a rather warm day compared to the last week and change. We will have already been moderating for almost 24 hours and 9h25 temps will be 9-12C and this should allow for highs to climb into the upper 60s to maybe even some lower 70s. But that is short lived as the next cold front will quickly be approaching.

Tuesday night through Thursday the forecast will be dominated by the next cold front. The pattern will begin to re-amplify as a Rex block develops over the Pacific coast and a strong s/w drops down the east side of the Continental divide Tuesday night and early Wednesday. We will see a weak broad sfc low develop over the southern Plains and move towards the Appalachians Tuesday night but the associated cold front will hang back to the WSW into northeastern and central TX. With the strong s/w still on the backside of the L/W trough it will cause it to hold back and slowly dig which should keep the cold front mostly out of the area until almost sunrise. But it will allow for a little more moisture to pool in ahead and along the cold front and we will see a decent shot or rain early Wednesday, likely starting after midnight Tuesday. The cold front does finally get a jolt and moves through the area during the late morning and midday hours. Strong cold air advection will take place and we will likely see freezing temperatures once again for possibly the northern half of the area Thursday morning and northeastern portions of the CWA Friday morning. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR through this cycle. Northerly winds will continue to ease through today and any cigs should remain BKN090 or higher.

MARINE

Issued at 1129 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Strong northwest winds continue across all of the coastal waters but Gale conditions are subsiding and we are dealing with predominantly SCY winds and seas. SCY conditions will persist through the rest of the overnight hours for all waters and then shortly after sunrise winds will quickly begin to relax over the tidal lakes and waters west of the mouth of the river. As high pressure pushes in winds will continue to relax over all waters and winds should finally weaken enough to allow the SCY to end around noon. High pressure will dominate the area through tomorrow morning before it slides east allowing return flow to set back up late Monday. We will see about 36-42 hours of return flow before the next front starts to push into the area and through the coastal waters Wednesday afternoon. We may need headlines ahead of the front but we will need SCY headlines behind the cold front Wednesday night and into Thursday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Monday morning for LAZ056>060-065>068-088>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ555-557-575-577.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ557-575-577.