textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Dense Fog this morning possible and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of SELA but the potential is lower than previously expected.

- Above normal temperatures will be in place through Friday, possibly even record breaking temperatures.

- No rain in this forecast period as of now but may need to watch for some isoalted to scattered sprinkles or light showers over coastal MS and right across the Pearl River Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The weather continues to remain quiet, warm, and uneventful for the most part. It was rather warm yesterday, well above normal, but no one broke any record highs however, that may not be the case come later this week.

Mid level closed low continues to spin over the southwestern gulf while the ridge is currently flattened out across northwestern Mexico into TX and nudging into the Lower MS Valley. Broad wnw flow is in place across most of the eastern half of the CONUS while zonal flow dominates much of the western CONUS. At the sfc there is a front located stretching wsw from the DELMARVA region though the TN Valley, AR, and into western TX. High pressure is over the Gulf and east through the Bahamas while another broad area of high pressure is centered over the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley.

As for the most immediate concern, the Dense Fog Advisory. As of right now we still have it in place for most of the Atchafalaya basin parishes through 14z however the potential for dense fog is looking less and less likely. VWP from HDC and LCH both indicating 25 to 30 kt immediately above the boundary layer. This suggests strauts being the primary concern and not neccesarily fog. Looking at current satellite views even as some fog tries to develop it is quickly lifting and spreading to the northeast with some areas between MSY and BTR already showing BKN around 2500-3k ft. Over in southwestern LA the lower stratus is developing more quickly and spreading with those cloud bases much lower to the ground around 300-1k ft. That said if winds are able to relax some it would not be out of the question to see some patchy dense fog right around sunrise (the so called sunrise surprise fog).

After the sun comes up what fog and low clouds we have will quickly mix out and should be another warm day and it wouldn't be a surprise if we were just a touch warmer in a few locations as we could see some slight compressional heating due to the approaching front. This front will likely move into the area this evening before stalling near the coast tonight/early tomorrow. It will bring in some drier air which would provide slightly more comfortable morning lows tomorrow and Wednesday morning but that is it.

Overall the forecast is dry but there are some indications that we may see a few sprinkles or light showers Wednesday. There is likely multiple subtle features embedded in the northwest flow that will be in place through the next 84 hours and it appears models are indicating one moving into the area Wednesday afternoon just as we begin to see moisture slowly return and before we see the ridge building into the area. Best chance for any rain, which will be very light at best, will be east of I-55. Even if there isn't any rain this has a good chance of messing with afternoon highs in that area as we could have extensive cloud cover. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Near record to record setting heat will be the main story in the long term period through Friday as a strong upper level ridge axis extending eastward from Texas dominates the Gulf South. Temperatures will be a good 10 to 15 degrees above average each day as highs climb into the mid to upper 80s. The highly subsident airmass over the area will also keep conditions very dry, and this will allow for a large diurnal range of around 25 degrees each day. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s each night.

Significant model differences continue between the GFS and the ECMWF/Canadian models this evening. The Euro and Canadian models continue to keep a strong H5 ridge axis of 586 decameters in place through the weekend. However, the GFS remains the outlier solution with a stronger trough descending into the Mid-Atlantic states and lowering H5 heights to around 582 decameters. The deterministic NBM shows more significant cooling over the weekend, on the order of around 10 degrees, but the overall temperature spread has grown between the various members. There is now a 15 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles for both daytime highs and overnight lows. Thus, there is a good deal of uncertainty in the extended range forecast for this weekend. The one definite thing is that the dry conditions will continue as little to no deep layer moisture return will occur before the trough and associated front approaches the region. The deterministic NBM output is closer to the 25th percentile value, so it remains on the lower end of the model consensus. Given the uncertainty, the official forecast will stick with these cooler temperatures over the weekend for now, but an increase back toward the middle to upper 80s may occur as we move through early next week and model solutions come into better agreement. /PG/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Fog and stratus is expected to develop but may not be quite as bad as previousloy worried. That said a few terminals will still see impacts this morning with fog and stratus. BTR has the greatest potential of seeing vsbys drop down to VLIFR while MCB and HUM may drop down to IFR status. Stratus is expected to develop in the next few hours as well likely ranging from around 500 to 900 ft and also impacting the same terminals but could also impact HDC and possible ASD. GPT, NEW and MSY have the lowest chance of seeing impacts. All temrinals should be back in VFR status around 14/15z. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 121 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A broad area of high pressure centered over the eastern gulf will keep a prevailing southwesterly wind of around 10 knots in place through today. A weak front will move towards the area today before it stalls near the coast tonight. This front may just dip down into the coastal waters leading to weak northwest winds for likely less than a day. High pressure becomes re-established to the east- northeast with light southerly flow returning and seas generally 2 feet or less. These conditions will last through the end of next week. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>036- 046>048-056>060-065-083>086.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.