textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- No significant weather-related hazards are expected through Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will begin returning Sunday, mainly for areas west of the I-59 corridor.

- Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Cooling and drying across northeast areas from a backdoor front (CAD) allowed some areas along and east of the Pearl River basin to creep into the mid to upper 50s this morning. This may be the last time these areas see temperatures below 60 degrees until fall. Despite the cooler start in northern areas, shortwave ridging overhead denoted by steep low to mid level warmth on the 12Z LIX sounding has aided in rapid warming of temperatures from where they started out. It's still gonna be a close call regarding if the Baton Rouge area will reach 90F finally (this time for sure), but temperatures have been bumped closer to the 75th percentile NBM to account for temperatures outpacing the NBM deterministic. Moisture return is also beginning with southeasterly surface flow establishing itself on the southwestern flank of the surface high over the southern Appalachians that is propagating southeast into the Atlantic.

There will be potential for patchy fog development on Saturday morning around sunrise across portions of southern MS including the Pearl River basin and its tributaries that extend into southeast Louisiana. Winds will relax after sunset, cloud cover will still be limited enough to allow for radiational cooling, and grounds are still drying out from last week's rains.

Shortwave ridging will depart on Saturday and mid-upper cloud cover will increase across the area as a weak trough ripples through the prevailing southwesterly flow across the south central CONUS. This should limit warming of temperatures to the levels they reached today, but still well into the 80s across most places.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The long term forecast turns into a rinse-repeat, summer-like regime with prevailing southeasterly flow and afternoon shower and storm activity focused and driven by lake and seabreeze activity. This will focus the highest afternoon storm chances of into the northwest portions of the CWA each day beginning Sunday and continuing through much of the week. There will be some nuances day to day driven by shortwave troughing and ridging rippling through the prevailing stronger southwesterly flow across the central CONUS as a longwave trough dives across the Rockies Sunday through Tuesday. Upper ridging will attempt to nose back in during this period as well which will enhance daytime heating and push high temperatures back above normal (upper 80s).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the remainder of the day. Southeasterly winds up to 10 knots are beginning to become more established, but will weaken overnight before becoming more prevalent on Saturday. MVFR to IFR patchy fog will be possible at MCB, ASD, and HDC, but predominantly near the Pearl River Basin. Cannot rule out needing to expand VIS lines to include/lengthen MVFR to IFR conditions at terminals along and north of the I-10 corridor.

MARINE

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

High pressure will continue to drift east of the area late this week, providing an increased southeasterly return flow through the weekend. Moisture increasing from the Gulf will provide a daily chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms starting Sunday, with more notable coverage possible mid to late next week but prevailing conditions will continue to support mainly light to breezy southeasterly winds and waves/seas generally in the 1-2ft range for protected waters, to 3-4 ft for outer Gulf waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.