textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 457 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Extreme heat is expected today with heat index values 105 to 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas around Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas again today.

- Most of the area will continue with lower rain chances but scattered storms return to the northeast portion of the area today and Wednesday. A few of these storms will be capable of producing hail and strong/severe wind gusts.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Storms remain quite strong over northern LA through central MS this morning. These storms are following a frontal axis oriented NW to SE. The high pressure to the south of this line is also quite supressive right up to where the frontal boundary is able to weaken the environment enough to get storms going. The front is still moving ever so slowly to the south this morning which means this line, where storms a forming, will be a bit farther south by Wed. First, we will start with today. This line should be located from Shreveport to Slidell by noon today. Models show this fairly well and this should lead to somewhat of a precip gradient with higher numbers along and north of this line. The current set of storms moving SE this morning should start to run into a more stable environment around sunrise as they approach causing them to begin decaying. But they will help set the stage for more storms to developing thorugh the day. These will all be moving SE at around 10 mph so they won't be hanging around for several hours. But they will still contain very heavy rainfall and with areas still trying to dry out, they could cause some isolated flooding issues in places that were hit the hardest during the tropical rainfalls. This line will move slightly more southward and should follow along the Red River southeast to and along the Miss River by Wed. Not many storms with this system are expected to become severe, but an isolated storm or two could become strong to severe during this Tue through Wed time frame. The storms that are capable of becoming strong/severe will be capable of producing hail and straight line winds being the main hazards. Areas south of this line will have ample heating and a heat advisory has been issued for areas where there is plenty of moisture getting trapped at the sfc coupled with this heating.

LONG TERM

(Thursdsay through Monday) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Thursday into Friday brings zonal flow to the area with a ridge to the north building in over the weekend. This brings classic summertime weather with afternoon thunderstorms predominating the pattern. Concurrently, a strong upper level ridge will be sweeping eastward and by Sunday morning will be centered to our north extending into southcentral Canada. A strong low will be spinning over the northern Rockies and beginning Monday will ride up over the ridge and compress it laterally; more to come on this feature and its impacts in future discussions. [Schlotz]

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

All MVFR and IFR cigs over the northern half of the area will rise to VFR by mid morning. There is a high enough chance of TSRA along and north of a line from MCB to GPT to show in this taf set for today. Tonight will show the same areas with low cigs and possibly low vis where rainfall occurs.

MARINE

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A surface high is currently centered in the eastern Gulf which is leading to southwesterly flow over the local marine zones. As an upper level trough digs into the southeastern US, the center of that high pressure will be driven west and into the north/central Gulf. That will put it right near the local area which will substantially decrease winds. So expect lighter and more variable winds today and Wednesday. As the trough lifts and tracks east, the high's center then tracks back east which brings our winds back to southwest and closer to 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-064-076>078-080-082-084-087-098-099.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.