textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- One last decent day of rain across the area for the rest of the work week, rain is still expected along the coast Wednesday. Temperatures will be far more seasonable Wednesday through Friday.

- Behind the front winds will pick up especially east of the MS delta and Small Craft Advisories are likely Wednesday and through Thursday.

- Strong easterly winds and spring tides are expected to lead to minor coastal flooding for portions of coastal MS and east facing shores of SELA east of the MS River. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed for Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

One more day of what should be scattered to possibly numerous convection today before we see a weak backdoor cold front move through providing a far more pleasant second half of the work week for the region. The front is starting to work south and is already moving into northern portions of AL and GA work back to the west- northwest across western TN and crossing the MO Bootheel before trailing back off to the north into southwestern IA. WV clearly shows the east coast L/W trough digging with another deep closed mid lvl low over the MT/Canada border. Ridging is being squeezed between the two from TX to north of the Great Lakes. Also broad mid lvl low over the Bay of Campeche with a lot of cirrus streaming across the Gulf and Gulf coast states. last nights 00z sndg had 2.07" PWs and GOES 16 TPW product indicates the PW is still around 2.1 over much of the area.

Today, the forecast remains difficult given the lack of any real defined synoptic features and like yesterday convection is primarily going to be driven by boundaries. Sea/lake breeze boundaries were the primary driver yesterday with the lake breeze getting going a little earlier than expected and that looks like it will be the case again. The main predicament in that forecast are additional outflow boundaries. The first one is the one that is currently moving across the area and at 7z radar showed it along the western Tangipahoa parish line working down across southwestern Lake Pontchartrain and to the southeast just off the east coast of Plaquemines parish. It was still sliding west but slowly and how much farther west it goes is likely to lead to some development later. In addition there are a few other areas moving south. One and this is the remnant boundaries or even gravity waves that could may enter southwest MS by 9/10z. The second is a small complex of convection driving south into northeastern LA. This could send an outflow boundary into the northern portions of the CWA between 12-14z. All of these will have the potential to drive convection after we heat up along but that may be the problem. Again there is a good bit of cirrus across the region and given the fact that we didn't heat up quite as much yesterday as expected with less cloud cover initially today could be a degree cooler with highs only in the upper 80s to lower 90s. The convective temp was 91 on the 00z sounding and models suggest that will be similar today and with highs only forecast to reach 90-92 in the northern half of the CWA convection may actually hold off for some time today. Also we will be weakly in northerly flow aloft and that typically leads to convection firing off later as well. So, even with multiple outflow boundaries possibly interacting together along with the sea/lake breeze convection may not fire till early afternoon.

As for the strong/severe aspect, this doesn't look quite as concerning as yesterday had it look. There are some indications we could see some slightly drier air in the LL drop down in the region however, looking at current obs there is still quite a bit of 70+ dewpoints across much of central and even northern MS, so not quite sure where the CAMs are getting this drier air to drop the dewpoints into the upper 60s. Combine that with the highs only peaking out around 91, the instability lvls we saw yesterday that were expected for today are substantially lower. CAPE values may only approach 3k J/kg instead of the 4-4300 that much of the guidance was showing. Also even though we may be moving into northerly flow it is very weak with h5 winds only expected to be around 5 to maybe as high as 10 kts. We will still have an area of LL confluence likely around and just north of the I-12 corridor. With all of this biggest question is the outflow boundary currently moving west across the area and what impacts that may have through the morning hours. It should help to spark more convection over the coastal waters over the next 3-4 hours but with it already west of Lake P only spotty light showers are expected inland from it. That said it may be the first catalyst for convection once we start to heat up. If not I am not expecting a lot of development from the other two features moving south into the area later this morning. Convection will likely begin to bubble up mid afternoon with the greatest coverage across the FL parishes between 22 and 2/3z.

After that convection should quickly begin to dissipate to push south becoming confined to the coastal areas as the front moves into the region. The front will get into the inner waters overnight with slightly drier and cooler air working into the area. H925 temps will fall to around 19/20C for Wednesday and that only equates to around 82-85 degrees for a high which is a good 3 to 7 degrees below normal. Drier air will continue to work into the LL and there are indications that dewpoints may eventually drop into the mid to upper 50s across the northeastern quadrant of the CWA. Looking mainly at areas east of I-55 and north of 10/12. This would promote morning lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s for much of the area but if the dewpoints are able to drop into the 50s across some areas I could easily see a few sites falling into the lower 60s maybe even bottoming out around 59, looking mainly at MCB and the drainage areas like PQL, BXA, and ASD.

Again a rather large and stout area of high pressure will build at the sfc over the Appalachians becoming centered over the the TN/AL/GA/NC border midday Thursday. This high will dominate much of the eastern CONUS. That along with a weak wave over the central Gulf will begin to tighten the pressure gradient and lead to continued moderate to strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds. With strong easterly winds over the waters east of the MS delta beginning Wednesday and continuing through Thursday we will begin to pile the water up along coastal MS and east facing showers and SELA. This is going to coincide with the Spring tide and latest indications are that we could see tides Thursday around 1.5 to 2.4' feet MHHW (basically the known problems areas around Waveland and immediate coastal areas of St Bernard and Plaquemines could see isolated locations with 1.5 to 2.5 feet of inundation). Not going to issue a Coastal Flood Adv yet as this is the first indication of this and if winds take on more of a southeasterly direction faster Thursday or that wave is not as strong in the central Gulf we may not pile up quite as much water. However, because we maintain more of an easterly wind Wednesday through Thursday and then only begin to become more east-southeasterly thursday evening or possibly even Friday. The coastal flooding problems that tend to catch us off guard are the ones where the winds have more of an easterly component and not necessarily as much southeasterly and especially southerly. This is because with those winds the water could still escape to the east but with an strong easterly to east-southeasterly wind the water gets trapped by the LA coast and with no where to go it just starts to pile up. Luckily this is occurring this week and not last week when the rivers were all much higher and we were still getting a good bit of rain. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Return to active summertime pattern comes into full swing this upcoming weekend. The upper level ridge that's centered over and encompassing the southeastern US Friday will be sliding out into the Western Atlantic. That position change relative to the CWA results in a meaningful reduction in subsidence aloft. At the same time, deep Gulf moisture will be ushered in with PW's possibly approaching records for this time of year. So shouldn't be any surprise that POPs increase so much and we probably end up with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms develop each day along outflow boundaries, lake and sea breezes as we reach convective temperatures, which will generally be in the mid 80s. From there, expect coverage to ramp up considerably. Localized flash flooding will certainly be a threat with potential for very high rainfall rates along with outflow boundary interactions with storms possibly stagnating movement for periods of time. Mid level lapse rates will be fairly weak and 500 mb temperatures pretty warm at -5 or -6C, so the threat of severe weather should be pretty low.

As noted above, convective temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s, so high temperatures probably won't get much warmer than that. Overnight lows are likely to be in the 70s. /MEFFER/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

All terminals with the exception of BTR are in VFR at TAF issuance. BTR was indicating fog and low cigs leading to LIFR conditions this morning and looking at traffic cameras every around BTR was clear but directly over the airport there was some fog and low cigs but that will quickly improve this morning. Biggest concern again today is convection and when it will initiate. Storms should begin to fire north of the tidal lakes around 19/20z with HDC, ASD, and perhaps MCB seeing impacts first. MSY, NEW, and GPT could also see impacts early/mid afternoon but those areas don't appear to be quite as promising until later in the afternoon and mainly between 22 and 03z. All terminals are likely to see some impacts sometime between late this afternoon and mid to late evening. Obviously both reduced vsbys and lowered cigs will are expected with convection along with gusty winds. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

High pressure will begin to break down over the Gulf as a weak backdoor cold front moves into the coastal waters overnight. Outside of any thunderstorms activity winds will remain light through tonight as the front approaches with winds around 10 knots or less and seas will remain below 2 feet. However an outflow boundary currently moving across the coastal waters from east to west will likely continue to spark additional showers and thunderstorms which will lead to locally higher winds and seas with winds possibly approaching 35-40 kts through this morning. That backdoor cold front will drift across the coastal waters tonight and early Wednesday. After it moves through winds will shift to easterly and will increase in speed, especially the waters east of the MS Delta where solid SCY conditions are expected Wednesday. The front will stall and washout by Thursday and as high pressure builds over the southern Appalachians the pressure gradient will increase leading to moderate onshore flow returning. Small Craft Advisory expected for Wednesday and may be needed later this week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.