textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Another line of severe storms will move through the region late on Sunday ahead of the next cold front. This line of storms could produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

- There is increasing confidence that below freezing temperatures will be noted along and north of the I-12 corridor early Tuesday morning.

- Gale conditions are forecast to impact the coastal waters Sunday night into Monday behind a strong cold front.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A very shallow upper level trough is dominating the pattern, bringing partly cloudy skies and seasonable almost-early-spring temperatures. Winds are generally light and out of the south. Tonight will be seasonable with overnight lows around 60, give or take.

Tomorrow sees the beginnings of changes in response to a strengthening upper level low dropping down off the Rockies and moving across the Plains. Ahead of the trough Sunday afternoon winds will increase slightly to the 10-15 mph range and shift to southwesterly and in the late afternoon to early evening expect widespread convective showers. By late evening, say 10pm-ish the front will be crossing our northwest borders. It will be in the form of a QLCS bringing winds from the midlevels to the surface and perhaps generating some bowing segments strong enough to induce some weak rotations, that is tornadoes. Overall, though, the front will be moving very quickly by 5am-ish Sunday morning. The rapid movement could enhance the straightline winds, but may act to suppress tornado development just because it is moving so fast. When the front passes, it will leave behind rapidly clearing skies, northwest winds, and chilly temperatures with the overnight low, which actually happens around sunrise on Monday, around the upper 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Monday during the day will be chilly and blustery with winds out of the northwest and the issuance of a Wind Advisory likely. The strength of the low pressure and front will bring us one more night of cold with freezing temperatures expected north of the I-10/12 corridor. This will be followed by a slow warming trend with chilly temps Tuesday and Tuesday night, reaching the low 70s by Wednesday and the low 80s by the weekend. Our next chance for rain is outside the foreseeable forecast period, well beyond seven days from now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

At the time of this writing all terminals experiencing VFR conditions that should continue through the overnight hours. There are non-zero chances of patchy fog around daybreak worth mentioning here, but not a strong enough signal to introduce in the coded TAFs. By mid- morning and lasting through mid=afternoon conditions may become IFR at times with development of a lower broken stratus deck.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Generally benign marine conditions are expected through early Sunday with south winds around 10 knots. Sunday afternoon the area begins to feel the effects of an approaching cold front and winds swing through westerly. As the front passes, winds will quickly shift to the northwest and increase to 30 to 35 knots with higher gusts. These gale conditions will push seas over 12 feet in the open Gulf waters creating very hazardous boating conditions. The gale conditions will linger into Monday night before gradually easing on Tuesday as another high pressure system becomes more centered over the waters. As the high becomes centered over the waters on Wednesday, winds will turn more easterly and fall to 10 knots or less. Seas will also decrease back to 3 feet or less by Wednesday morning.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for GMZ532-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.