textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Patchy to areas of dense fog possible again this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of the area overnight. - Above normal temperatures will be in place through Friday, possibly even record breaking temperatures.

- No significant rainfall in the forecast until at least early next week.

- Critical Fire Weather concerns possible Saturday behind the cold front.

UPDATE

Issued at 440 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Added Jackson County to the Dense Fog Advisory. Yes there is a break in the advisory across the region and if you glance at the satellite you can see why. Thick stratus layer developed overnight and is keeping much of the area between Pascagoula and Baton Rouge void of much more than very light BR (visibilities around 5-6 sm). The stratus development made a lot of sense with the winds HDC VWP was showing till about 7z. Winds at the first and second gate were anywhere from 20-30 kts most of the evening and just past midnight but has sense been relaxing and as of 929z was down to 10 kt. Watching this closely because this may allow that stratus deck to settle down to the sfc quickly leading to widespread fog and even dense fog. That said it is a rather thick area of stratus so it won't be fast to crash unlike a thinner layer would. In addition the stratus deck continues to build and spread across the area including on top of areas that have had fog develop and this could have impacts on dissipated speed as it would likely slow things down allowing fog to hold on a little longer this morning. As for the marsh fire in the Bonnet Carre Spillway, not seeing any significant impacts from it and before the stratus starts to build in overhead we couldn't really see any sign of it on satellite anymore. LADOTD camera's along I-10 across the spillway are showing increasing mist/light fog but no dense fog yet in that area. All products are already issued. /CAB/

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

There are some impacts in the short term but overall not a lot of issues. Obviously fog is the immediate forecast problem. A Dense Fog Advisory Short advisory remains out of the River and Bayou parishes however, fog has had a difficult time developing so far. WE are warmer this morning than yesterday so that is a negative for fog and looking at the KHDC VWP winds all most of the night have been in the 25 to 30 kt range at the first gate. That is not favorable for fog and would suggest mostly low stratus and looking at GOES right now that has absolutely been the case for much of the northern half of the area. But the winds have recently been relaxing some so those low clouds could begin to build down towards the surface leading to a more substantial fog concern. Fog does appear to have the greatest potential of developing in the current advisory area but also portions of coastal MS. We are currently monitoring a marsh fire in the Bonnet Carre' Spillway and if we get fig to develop this could lead to Super Fog concerns along I-10 which would lead to visibilities near zero. Not seeing much in the way of problems right now but we will closely monitor the situation with satellite and road cameras.

After the sun comes up conditions should quickly improve given high pressure dominating the region. The sfc high will be centered off to the ENE leading to return flow at sfc and LL. The ridge in the mid lvls will continue to build east today and tomorrow leading to increasing hghts, warmer LL temps, and stronger subsidence. With that we will see more widespread mid 80s with a few upper 80s tossed in there.

The next forecast concern comes into play Saturday. A s/w moving through the 4 corners region today will ride over top of the ridge tonight and tomorrow. This will help to erode the eastern periphery of the ridge some Friday and Friday night and then usher a cold front across the area Friday night. Not really much in the way of cold air coming down but it will bring much drier air behind it. The other negative aspect is that this front will be rain free which is only going to help exacerbate the drought across the region. One last thing, winds will also ramp up behind the front with moderate to strong northerly winds quickly developing after sunrise and remaining moderate to strong into the early afternoon hours before quickly relaxing. All of this is leading to some concern of potential critical fire weather conditions Saturday. For more information on the potential for critical fire weather conditions refer to the Fire Weather section below. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

There's really not been much change in the expected upper pattern in the last 24 hours, and the earlier discussion pretty much remains valid.

The global models are in good agreement that a shortwave trough diving into the Mid-Atlantic states will help to slightly erode a strong H5 ridge axis extending eastward across the Gulf South from Texas and the Four Corners region over the weekend. A front will accompany this shortwave feature, but this front will be moisture starved as it moves through the area. It should already be offshore by Saturday morning. The boundary is likely to already be returning northward on Sunday as the surface high shifts east of the area. Can't entirely rule out a few showers on Sunday, but they won't amount to much as far as accumulation goes, less than a tenth of an inch, if it rains at all. Little in the way of cold air advection is expected with this front, and temperatures will only fall back to average for late March with highs in the mid to upper 70s Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 50s and lower 60s. As noted in the fire weather section, there is potential for fire weather impacts on Saturday if winds are a little stronger than expected.

As the shortwave pulls away, the strong H5 ridge will once again become the primary feature impacting our weather at the start of next week. With increased drying and warming aloft, temperatures will once again turn warmer than average with daytime highs rising into the low to mid 80s and lows falling into the 60s. A strengthening mid-level inversion will keep most cloud development suppressed, but there will be enough moisture and instability beneath the inversion to produce scattered cumulus development each afternoon from Monday onward. Not much more than 20-30 percent coverage at most, and anything more than one-quarter inch accumulation on any day would be a surprise right now. A majority of the area may not see any rainfall in the next week. /RW/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

All terminals except MSY are now dealing with impacts from either vsbys, cigs, or both. BTR the last terminal to see impacts just tanked in the last 30 mins and is now dealing with 1/4sm and VV003. Large area of stratus develop during the late evening and early overnight hours across much of the area north of the I-10/12 corridor east of BTR and west of PQL. This stratus deck has just continued to get thicker and spread south and southwest now and will likely hang around a little longer than expected. It is mainly around 1300 to 2300 ft off the deck. However, the locations that area dealing with fog and at this time it is mainly PQL and BTR which stayed out from under the stratus the longest are now showing cigs around 300-800 ft. between 15 and 16z all terminals should at the least be back in MVFR status if not VFR. As for overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning additional impacts are expected once again. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

High pressure is back in control over the area with generally light and variable winds. Once the surface high becomes centered east of the area this morning winds will take more of an onshore direction and will remain onshore until Friday night. The next front will move through the region late Friday night and immediately behind this front winds will quickly shift to offshore. Winds will also increase across all of the coastal waters to around 20 to 25 kts and higher gusts. This would necessitate Small Craft Advisory headlines for all waters. Even though this is 48 to 60 hours out confidence is rather high in the forecast. The strong winds will not last long as the pressure gradient quickly relaxes and we will see onshore return possibly as early as late Sunday morning. /CAB/

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

There is the potential for critical fire weather conditions to develop during a short window Saturday morning through the afternoon. As the cold front moves through Friday night, much drier air will quickly filter in behind it along with moderate to strong northerly winds developing. Currently the forecast is advertising min RH values in the mid 20 to near 30 percent range north of the 10/12 corridor. The concern is typically models and especially the MOS guidance really struggle with the amount of mixing/drying behind these early Spring fronts which would suggest the min RH values could be lower. As for winds, we are looking at sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the morning and through midday before relaxing through the afternoon. Combine the low RH values and strong winds with the lack of rainfall and continued drought we are experiencing and the potential is there for dangerous fire weather conditions to develop. We may need a Red Flag Warning/Fire Weather Watch for the northern half of the area. Luckily this is a small window as we will quickly start to recover on Sunday. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034-035- 046>048-056>060-065>067-085-086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MSZ085-088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.