textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day through this weekend into the first half of next week. While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the 7-Day forecast period. Afternoon heat indices will generally range from 100 to 107 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridge remains over Tennessee and the Carolinas this morning. The remnants of Eduoard were over east Texas, with another easterly wave over the northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were over the Gulf south of the coastal parishes, with only very isolated activity north of Interstate 10. Temperatures at midday were in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points were mainly in the middle 70s.

As the wave over the Gulf works its way westward, it will do so in tandem with the center of the upper ridge, which will be over Oklahoma and Kansas again by Saturday. As has been the case the last several days, most areas should remain dry or receive less than one quarter inch of rain this afternoon, but a few spots could see a quick inch of rain or more. Precipitable water values are forecast to be higher on Friday and Saturday, which should provide a bit greater areal coverage than this afternoon or Sunday, as well as a bit better opportunity for heavy rainfall. Similarly, that should make today and Sunday slightly warmer than Friday and Saturday. We'll still be near to above normal on temperatures with highs 90 to 95. We should see heat index values remain just short of the 108F criteria that would justify heat advisories through Sunday, but we'll continue to monitor.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridging will be centered over Oklahoma on Monday, and expand more east-west by mid-week. At that point, it should extend from Colorado to Georgia. That will keep mid-level easterlies over much of the Gulf through mid-week and beyond.

Precipitable water values will remain at or above the 75th percentile along the Louisiana coast, but will occasionally drop to near the 50th percentile across southwest Mississippi. The end result is going to be a day to day development of showers and thunderstorms, with a gradient of PoPs from south (highest) to north (lowest). Most convection should be diurnally based, primarily during the afternoon. If the GFS soundings are any indication, storms on Monday and Tuesday may be more favorable for gusty winds, while Wednesday (and Thursday) would be more favorable for heavy rainfall.

Don't anticipate any large swings in temperatures from day to day, primarily in the lower 90s for highs, although Labor Day would be the most likely candidate to get a little hotter. That's the day that would also be most favored for a Heat Advisory, but that's not a sure bet for now.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

A thunderstorm is currently passing just to the south of MCB and VCTS wording will remain in place through 01z to reflect this. Once this storm passes by, prevailing VFR conditions will be the rule at all of the terminals for the next few hours. However, a broad area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an approaching low pressure system will begin to impact coastal terminals between 10z and 14z, including GPT, ASD, NEW, MSY, and HUM. PROB30 wording is in place with MVFR visibility and ceiling restrictions for the morning hours at these terminals. Further inland, the showers and thunderstorms will develop a bit later between 16z and 18z as outflow boundaries from the morning convection sweep to the north and west, and PROB30 wording with similar MVFR impacts is in place for these terminals through the afternoon hours. Along the coast, the thunderstorm activity will peak in the mid-day hours and TEMPO wording is in place from 18z to 20z with reduced visibilities and stronger wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots mentioned. Conditions will begin to stabilize by 22z and most of the terminals will see improving conditions take hold moving toward the end of the forecast period as the thunderstorm activity dissipates.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The pressure gradient is expected to be fairly weak the next several days, with the main potential impacts to be daily rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Those will have the potential to produce locally higher winds and waves.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.