textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Dry conditions will persist through the weekend.

- Rain chances will gradually increase early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Upper ridging continued to be centered over northeast Texas. A weak upper low was centered over central Florida. At the surface, high pressure was centered over southern Mississippi. Clear skies and light winds across the area tonight, with temperatures mainly in the 70s at midnight CDT.

The upper low over Florida at present will drift westward into the eastern Gulf today, but won't make a lot of progress toward our area with the upper ridge blocking it's path. A northern stream shortwave will slide down the east side of the ridge late Sunday and Monday, bringing at least some opportunity for showers or thunderstorms, mainly on Monday. It's very possible that this may be the only real opportunity for precipitation for the next week. Once that shortwave passes through or north of the area Monday night into Tuesday morning, the upper ridge is expected to build back into the area.

Above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday with highs in the lower and middle 90s for most areas vs normal highs in the upper 80s. Overnight lows will continue to run above normal as well with lows in the lower and middle 70s, but this is only a couple degrees above normal.

A few sites could approach Heat Advisory criteria Sunday afternoon, but right now the areal extent doesn't look sufficient to justify an advisory. Monday's numbers would be more supportive of an advisory, but with the threat of showers/thunderstorms in the forecast, those conditions would be expected to be rather short lived.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Going into the middle part of the week, an upper low and associated trough will be moving into the Great Lakes region. This will accelerate/lift whatever is left of the upper low over the eastern Gulf northeastward away from the local area and allow the upper high to build back over the region from the west/northwest.

While there is some uncertainty regarding the strength of this high, it currently appears as though it will be strong enough to suppress most convection away from the immediate coast, keeping the highest POPs across the Gulf. Could still see some isolated to scattered showers and storms across land areas, but the pattern currently does not look conducive for any widespread convection.

As a result, expect temperatures to remain solidly warmer than normal through the period with lows int he 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds generally less than 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A broad surface high centered over the Tennessee Valley encompasses the southeastern US. This ridge will slightly weaken while tracking southward, becoming centered across the northern Gulf Coast Sunday. Local winds will respond to this by weakening and becoming more onshore. Weaker winds will persist throughout the remainder of the forecast period as that ridge remains nearby.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.