textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 435 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

- There is a threat of severe weather this afternoon and evening ahead of our next cold front. There is currently a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the whole area, with damaging winds and tornadoes being the primary threats. Please stay weather aware tomorrow and have multiple ways of receiving warnings.

- In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also a threat of flash flooding today into Saturday. Similar to the severe weather, there is a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 2 out of 4) for the whole area. A Flood Watch has also been issued starting midnight this morning through Saturday morning from along I-59 and westward where we can expect widespread 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts above 6 inches.

- After the front passes on Saturday, gusty offshore winds will filter in behind it. Small craft advisories will likely be needed starting on Sunday, as the winds and waves will be dangerous for small vessels.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

What a difference 24hrs makes. The initial front is now slowing to a stall tonight from SE Oklahoma to just south of Eagle Pass, TX. If you are looking for a wind shift, you won't find it but the dew pt drop of 20F from 60F to 40F over a distance of about 50 miles gives it away. This is where the sh/ts are developing and moving NE along it. The wind shift will catch up with it later tonight though. This front should stall from near Shreveport to Lerado Tx by daylight Fri. This is roughly 150 miles farther east than 24 hrs ago. Therefore, all other synoptic features will also be found farther east. The 850mb prefrontal trough that was supposed to be over central Louisiana is now expected to stall over our area Fri morning. This prefrontal trough is already starting to set up tonight in Louisiana. Storm cells will continue to develop over much of the state through tonight while the storms along the frontal boundary weaken. A few of these cells could play nasty tonight/morning along and north of a line from McComb to Baton Rouge but there is no indication that it would be more than one or two that become marginally severe. Instability then slowly builds across the whole area starting around daylight Fri and completes by noon Fri. The initial convective band of sh/ts moves north just after midnight while new storms begin to form and flow NE along the stalled perstitant prefrontal boundary during the morning hours Fri. There is still no strong overturn and lift through H7 through much of the morning hours with the exception of near Wilkinson Co. But this changes quickly as we approach noon Fri. As the front and upper trough begins to introduce better severe wx values, this line should start to brecome active as we approach noon or shortly after. The prefrontal trough will move to a location between BTR and MSY when it begins to light up and this is where the first issue with severe wx will be found. The storms will be heavy enough to prime this area with enough rainfall to cause some flooding, but as the storms continue to develop and move over the same places, there could be several spots that flood. Some of the severe wx variables weaken by sundown, but the line will remain producing rainfall over much of these same places transitioning this from a sever storms and flooding to mostly flooding situation. A flood watch is already in place and it is placed very strategically. This will remain as is.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

The front enters the NW portion of the area around daylight Sat ending the flooding and storm threat as it moves east. The front should be east of the area by early Sat evening. Cold dry air will settle in after fropa bringing temps into the 40s Sat night with winds still enough to keep it from freezing, but this won't be the case Sun night. Temps will refuse to get out of the 50s Sunday then fall to around 30F north and 40F south for Sunday night. Another cool day on Monday and maybe near freezing for some of the northern most areas Mon night. Then a slow warming trend begins for Tue through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

MVFR and IFR conditions prevail at all area airports. PROB30 and TEMPO groups are in effect this afternoon and evening for lowered visibilitiies and ceilings due to a line of storms moving through the area. Conditions will remain IFR through the end of the forecast period. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees are likely as well in the forecast at all area airports. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Fog will be able to reduce visibility for some coastal waters this morning but should remain greater than 1SM.

The winds are increasing due to the high pressure that is dominating the Gulf sliding northeast. Moderate onshore flow will continue through tonight until a cold front moves through Saturday with a window of strong offshore winds. Because of the increase in winds, an SCS was included for all of the waters for now until Saturday morning. Today and tonight into Saturday will have the greatest potential for rain with the best chance of thunderstorms some likely strong tonight and early Saturday.

With days of onshore flow prior to the cold front, we will have a well set up fetch out of the south. With winds quickly veering around to the north-northwest immediately behind the cold front there will be a window of what is called confused seas. The greatest potential appears to be in the outer waters (20-60nm) and west of the mouth of the MS River.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 63 68 40 55 / 90 80 10 0 BTR 64 69 43 58 / 90 80 10 0 ASD 64 72 43 59 / 80 90 10 0 MSY 66 73 48 59 / 80 90 10 0 GPT 64 72 46 58 / 80 90 20 0 PQL 64 74 43 59 / 70 90 20 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ036-037-039-046>048- 056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ069>071-077-083-086.

GM...None.