textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1252 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Locally dense fog will be possible again tonight right along the Atchafalaya.

- Above normal temperatures will be in place through Friday, possibly even record breaking temperatures.

- No rain is currently in the forecast through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A surface frontal boundary currently resides generally along the I20 corridor north of the CWFA this afternoon. This feature should continue to move gradually southward and become parallel to the mid and upper flow pattern later tonight stalling the front over the forecast region generally from NW to SE. On the backside of the front expect some moisture pooling again tonight, so fog is once again expected. Exact location is a bit questionable as it depends exactly where the surface boundary sets up, but as of now the best probs look to be generally over the River Parishes and near the Atchafalaya basin. Otherwise, the short term can be characterized as dry and warm as northwest flow remains over the region through the period. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Upper level ridging will begin to slide east into Texas through mid to late weak. This will help increase heights/thicknesses, which should come as no shock a continuation of above average temperatures through at least the first half of the long term period. At the surface the residual front trapped under the H5 northwest flow lingers across the eastern waters and perhaps over the MS Gulf Coast early in the period. This may provide a focus for some light shower activity as shown in the GFS and ECM, but the overall QPF signal is incredibly light at this time. Only silent 10s for now. Surface ridging builds back into the region later week and into early portions of the upcoming weekend. Then globals are suggesting a cold front moves southward across the CWFA early Saturday. Globals agree on timing and strength and also keep the feature dry with minimal POPs with the frontal passage. The daily temperatures and dry air moving into the region post frontal will be the main story (outside of maybe some marine issues). Temperatures Saturday and Sunday look to be a good 8-10 degrees cooler with more comfortable humidity values. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Outside of a TEMPO at BTR for low CIGs mostly VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon and into the evening. A cold front will continue to move southward, which should transition winds to a more northeasterly direction if not done so already, soon. Winds on Tuesday become light and variable. Fog potential appears lower, but BTR and HUM could see patchy fog, but confidence is a bit lower at this time to mention VIS issues. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A weak front will move toward the region later today before it stalls near the coast this evening or overnight. This front may just dip down into the eastern coastal waters leading to weak northwest winds briefly. High pressure becomes established over the Carolinas or southwest Atlantic by mid to late week. In response a light southerly return flow is anticipated as well as seas generally 2 feet or less. These conditions will last through the remainder of the week. Going into next weekend a front is forecast to move through increasing winds and seas likely to SCA thresholds Saturday and Sunday. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.