textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Partly to Mostly sunny skies are forecast today as rain chances remain offshore.

- Small Craft Advisories are in place for the western waters and most of the tidal lakes through Friday evening. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Warnings are in place for central and eastern offshore waters respectively.

- Hurricane Isaias is moving toward the north central gulf coast, forecasted to make landfall near the AL/FL border as a hurricane late Friday night. Southeastern LA coastal areas plus inland Jackson County and all of Hancock and Harrison Counties MS are under a Tropical Storm Warning and coastal Jackson County MS is under a Hurricane Warning. Much of coastal southeast LA and coastal MS are under Storm Surge Warnings. - Some uncertainty remains on the exact track and strength, but potential impacts include gusty winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and dangerous waves/seas on the coastal waters.

UPDATE

Issued at 420 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Forecast products (Zones and Coastal Waters) updated to incorporate 4 PM CDT NHC advisory and data for Hurricane Isaias. Intensity is now Category 2 and forecasted center-of-track landfall is at Pensacola.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Hurricane Isaias will be the main concern, with most of the impacts occurring Friday and Friday night, primarily over eastern portions of the area. The rest of today should be used as a day of preparation for areas within warnings. Troughing over Texas and western Louisiana, along with ridging over the western Atlantic will force the storm northeast and then north over the next 36ish hours to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.

Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for portions of the area with more specific information in Hurricane Local Statements and TCVLIX. A Flood Watch may also be necessary for eastern portions of the area on Friday.

The storm will move quickly away from our area on Saturday, with any heavy precipitation ending during the day, although clouds may be slow to clear. Sunday will be dry and warmer.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

By Sunday night, Isaias (or remnants) will be over the Ohio River Valley and no longer an issue for our area. Upper and surface highs will be building into the area with little or no rain expected through midweek as dry air floods into the area.

Daytime highs will range from the mid 80s to around 90 early next week with overnight lows generally in the 60s. These readings will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for mid October.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

All terminals currently at VFR. Beginning in the timefrom of 12Z to 15Z tomorrow, KHUM/KMSY/KNEW/KGPT begin to feel the impacts of Hurricane Isaias with possible showers and MVFR visibilities and ceilings accounted for with PROB30 coding. From 15Z to 18Z at all terminals, notable is increase in wind speeds in the 20kt range and gusts in the 30kt range that will last through the forecast period. Wind shear could be an issue at the end o fhte period at KGPT and KASD

MARINE

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

High pressure across much of the Plains will keep northeasterly winds over the coastal waters today. Meanwhile, the winds aloft will be from the southwest keeping an overrunning pattern that will bring scattered showers across the Gulf waters through the daytime hours, combined with the very initial showers associated with Isaias.

Marine conditions will slowly deteriorate Friday. Depending on the eventual track and strength of Hurricane Isaias, winds across the open waters are expected to rise to tropical storm or hurricane force driving heavy seas and shift from easterly to northerly and northwesterly Friday into Saturday before easing.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ070-076-078-091.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058-077-084-087-093-095-097-098.

Storm Surge Warning for LAZ070-076-078-091.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ529-531-533.

Hurricane Warning for GMZ532-535-536-554-557-575-577.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ534-541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...Hurricane Warning for MSZ088.

Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ083>087.

Storm Surge Warning for MSZ086>088.

Hurricane Watch for MSZ085.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ531-533.

Hurricane Warning for GMZ535-536-554-557-575-577.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.