textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of the area overnight tonight. - Above normal temperatures will be in place through Friday, possibly even record breaking temperatures.

- No significant rainfall in the forecast until at least early next week.

- Critical Fire Weather concerns possible Saturday behind the cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Going into tonight the primary concern will be the potential for fog at around or just prior to sunrise. An additional concern will also be any fog mixing with smoke from the ongoing marsh fires may lead to the development of super fog. In order to account for this the Dense Fog Advisory is already up for the entire CWFA (outside of marine zones) tonight and early Friday. After a foggy morning commute the main story for Friday and into Friday night is going to be continued above average temperatures. This will be the last "well above average" day in terms of high temperatures considering a cold frontal passage is projected Friday night. Temps and the overall airmass is a bit more modest, but it will drop our temps down to more seasonal norms. Little if any rainfall is anticipated with the frontal passage. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Going into Saturday behind the front a much drier airmass settles into the region from the north. Aloft we will be under dry northwesterly flow. With low RH values and gusty conditions, fire weather will be a concern (see Fire Weather Section below). The dry air doesn't linger too long. On Sunday a return flow takes shape bringing in warmer and more moist air. There is also a bit of a weak QPF signal on Sunday where we may see an isolated to scattered shower or two in the moisture rich low level flow pattern.

Going into the new workweek there will continue to be scattered shower and storm chances each day through the rest of the period. QPF signal is modest, but certainly not zero. Temperatures through the long term will increase gradually especially starting on Monday with ridge aloft and stronger return flow present at the surface. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Mostly VFR conditions through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Overnight tonight the fog potential will be there after midnight. Dense fog may be possible around sunrise. IFR or lower VIS/CIGs can be expected with some improvement by the end of the cycle. Surface winds will remain light and southerly. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

High pressure is in control over the area with generally light and variable winds. As the high spreads east of the region surface winds have made a transition to a more southerly or onshore flow. The next front will move through the region late Friday night. Immediately behind the front northerly winds and seas will build to hazardous thresholds. The strong winds will not last long as the pressure gradient quickly relaxes and we will see onshore return flow possibly as early as late Sunday morning. (Frye)

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

There is the potential for critical fire weather conditions to develop during a short window Saturday morning through the afternoon. As the cold front moves through Friday night, much drier air will quickly filter in behind it along with moderate to strong northerly winds developing. Currently the forecast is advertising min RH values in the mid 20 to near 30 percent range north of the 10/12 corridor. The concern is typically models and especially the MOS guidance really struggle with the amount of mixing/drying behind these early Spring fronts which would suggest the min RH values could be lower. As for winds, we are looking at sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts during the morning and through midday before relaxing through the afternoon. Combine the low RH values and strong winds with the lack of rainfall and continued drought we are experiencing and the potential is there for dangerous fire weather conditions to develop. A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect for the northern half of the area. Luckily this is a small window as we will quickly start to recover on Sunday. CAB/Frye

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-076-079>086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Friday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.