textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Well above average high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s will occur next week. Heat index values will climb into the upper 90s.

- The threat for thunderstorms, some possible strong to severe will continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

It was a rather active morning across the region with a few severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. Overall most of the damage reports we have received or found has been in Harrison county, MS with numerous impressive wind gust measurements, especially over the water, Ship Island had a recorded gust of 75 mph (possible waterspout) and GPT recorded a wind gust of 68 mph. Both of these were associated with the same storm that prompted a tornado warning over Harrison and the Special Marine Warning over MS Sound.

For the remainder of the afternoon we have been closely watching for the redevelopment of storms as the trailing edge of the line this morning held up over the Atchafalaya basin and once we start to heat up we will likely begin to see storms develop near the boundary which includes the river parishes. This would likely start to retreat slowly to the northeast and could see a few potent storms move towards the Southshore with a risk of locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and possibly large hail from any severe storm. We are already fairly unstable over SELA and only thing we are waiting on is some possible trigger to get a few storms to pop.

The biggest question is what occur overnight tonight and into tomorrow. There is the possibility we could see almost a repeat of this morning but like last night and this morning a lot will depend on what occurs upstream. We will need to closely monitor convection over southeast Ok and north-central and northeast TX. This is expected to consolidate into an MCS again tonight and unlike last night the pattern become a little more typical of getting MCS's to surge southeast as we slowly transition to WNW and possibly even NW flow by early morning. If an MCS gets going to our northwest the steering currents are more favorable to drive it this way. The one thing that is a little weaker than last night and this morning is synoptically and dynamically things aren't quite as impressive as last night. The upper level diffluence is much weaker however we will have the LFQ of the upper jet. The H85 theta e ridge doesn't look as prevalent as this morning but there may be a theta e axis southwest to northeast again from near southeast TX into western MS. That would allow any MCS to maintain itself up to our doorstep and that could be enough as it looks like there may be another impulse moving southeast down the building ridge in the northwest flow across the region with mid lvl winds increasing to 35 to 40 kts which is just about where the mid lvl winds increased to this morning. Much like last night we will be fairly unstable with MLCape of 1200-1500 j/KG possibly higher which we were this morning as models underestimated the instability a touch for that time frame.

Currently we have medium confidence in the forecast given some uncertainty and waiting for convection to still develop. Expecting another MCS tonight moving into the around around 8/9z and like this morning moving southeast through the CWA possibly exiting the area around 15/16z. Obviously strong to severe storms would be expected with this with damaging winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy rain, and few brief tornadoes possible once again. Convection should end early in the day and after that not anticipating any redevelopment as the ridge starts to quickly build in. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

No major changes in the thinking for the extended. Medium range ensemble means and their op runs overall continue to remain in fairly good agreement with decent continuity and consistency. It looks like the second half of the work week could be a little active and a far cry from the first half of the week. We begin hot, possibly record breaking, and dry. Then by Wednesday and into next weekend we could see multiple rounds of storms and maybe a weak cold front drifting south into the area by the weekend. Latest NBM in fairly good agreement with the guidance and with no major discrepancies and questions no deviations to the NBM occurred.

After a hot day on Monday, Tuesday will be practically a carbon copy but after Tuesday we will see things shift once again. In the mid lvl the ridge dominating the area Monday will continue to do so on Tuesday but will already begin to see the northern periphery of it erode as we tap into a persistent sub-tropical jet in the eastern Pac. Tuesday will be hot and could challenge a few records. H5 hghts around 587/588 dm will be in the top 10% for this time of year and with h925 temps around 23-25 C highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Wednesday and throughout the rest of the week we will see multiple impulses move across the southern Plains, Lower MS Valley and southeastern CONUS. With each successive impulse the ridge will get suppressed more and more until we start seeing the impulses come across our area which could be as early as Thursday night/Fri. At the sfc high pressure high pressure will remain centered to the east and dominate the Gulf through Wednesday but by Thursday we may actually see a weak boundary/front drift south into the region. This front will be parallel to the mid level flow which is why it will be fairly slow to move but with successive impulses, maybe every 18 hours, leading to a rounds of convection with each, that rain cooled air and increase in subsidence behind and to the north of the rain will help nudge the boundary down into our area and that could be as early as Friday. Rain chances will begin to increase Wednesday especially for the northern half of the area but it looks like be Friday and into the weekend rain chances will increase across the entire area. One thing we may need to watch closely, with a boundary running east west practically on top of the area and zonal flow aloft with multiple impulses locally heavy rain could become an issue. /CAB/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

After convection finally moved through terminals quickly improved and by 16/17z all terminals were in VFR or MVFR status. The main problem at this time is cigs around 2300-3k ft but that could quickly change as impacts will likely being to increase at a few terminals. We are anticipating isolated to scattered convection to quickly fire this afternoon and any terminals that are impacted by these storms will at least see MVFR status if not IFR and possibly LIFR. All terminals will have the potential to see TSRA but MCB has the least with the MSY/NEW/HDC having the greatest potential for more significant impacts. Convection will quickly dissipate this evening and all terminals will be back in VFR status but that may be short lived as low cigs around 2-3 kt feet may impact some terminals after 6z then there is the risk of another round of convection from a second MCS dropping down into the area early in the morning tomorrow. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

This early Summer like pattern will continue through the rest of the weekend and first half of the work week. With that the persistent south-southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots will remain in place over that time. Seas will remain well below any hazardous limits at 1 to 3 feet through the period. The greatest concern over the marine areas at this time is showers and thunderstorms. A few more rounds of storms will be possible, one this afternoon and the second early tomorrow through midday. With any storm locally higher winds and seas will be possible. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.