textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- Our next chance of rain will be late Friday afternoon into Saturday as another front moves into the area.

- Beyond Saturday, little or no rain is expected into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 122 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

The deep longwave trough to the east is finally begins to lift and move offshore into the western Atlantic on Wednesday. The CWA is already seeing moderating temps today and that trend continues tomorrow as 500mb heights rise and southerly flow develops. Ridge axis will following behind it becomes flattened by a shortwave trough developing on the leeside of the Rockies tonight. A surface low develops and rides along the backside of the base of that trough as it moves into the Lower MS Valley. The physical shape of the surface low as it comes into the region appears to be east to west elongated which is not a characteristic spatial distribution that screams severe. Same for the trough itself. Of note on some model soundings though is a decent llvl jet coming across the local area. That'll create modest shear throughout the column but that's pretty much all this system has going for it in terms of severe potential. Weak pressure falls and minimal cooling in the 850-500mb level really limits instability. Thus, some breezy gusts and possibly broad rotation in cells is the most likely scenario Friday aftn thru Sat morning as this system comes through. Haven't looked at all CAMs but the HRRR at least depicted pretty much what's expected.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 122 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

The upper level pattern is quite progressive and once the shortwave moves east of the local area, an amplifying ridge will quickly be moving in behind it. That means only a day of cooler temps followed by return of above normal temps.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions in place for all terminals at issuance time. Expect that to continue for most or all of the overnight hours. Could start to see MVFR ceilings by mid-morning Friday as low level moisture increases. Not expecting much, if any, precipitation prior to 00z Saturday, and anything worse than MVFR probably will hold off until beyond 06z Saturday, if it occurs at all. Winds could be a bit more of an impact on Friday, as sustained S-SW winds could get into the 15 to 20 knot range by midday, with a few gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range.

MARINE

Issued at 122 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A surface ridge centered over the western Gulf will track eastward, crossing Florida on Friday. Local winds will respond to this by rotating around from current W/NW to SW. Then, expect a modest increase in wind speeds as a developing surface low to the north tightens the local pressure gradient.

Going into the weekend, that system will drive a cold front through all the coastal waters. Near Small Craft advisory criteria will be possible during the pre-frontal lead up and continuing post frontal passage on Saturday. However, progressive pattern will quickly result in the tight pressure gradient relaxing which will lend to subsiding wind field.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 49 72 59 69 / 0 20 40 10 BTR 51 75 62 74 / 0 20 20 10 ASD 48 72 60 75 / 0 10 50 20 MSY 53 74 64 76 / 0 10 40 30 GPT 51 69 61 74 / 0 10 70 50 PQL 47 71 59 75 / 0 10 70 60

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.