textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 155 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- Heavy rainfall continues to be possible with any stronger storms into the start of the new workweek. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday evening for portions of the area generally south of a line from Baton Rouge to Bogalusa.

- Some storms will be capable of producing hourly rainfall rates of 1-3" per hour. High rates, even over short periods, could overwhelm drainage systems, leading to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas. Localized flash flooding could also result in some roads becoming impassable, mainly in areas where the heaviest rain falls, or where multiple storms result in longer periods of moderate to heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The stubborn upper level pattern continues to remain southerly or southwesterly with the series of vorts continuing to move over the region within the flow. Today will be no different. Both globals and CAMs indicate a potentially wet day, especially east of the I55 corridor including the MS Gulf Coast. PWATS are well up there over 2.0" which will support efficient rainfall rates. Went ahead and continued the FFA through this evening, but the day shift may need to extend the headline if, indeed, the region gets a good soaking today with additional heavy rain being a threat on Tuesday. Speaking of Tuesday, it will remain difficult to properly time each impulse as it moves downstream over the region, but another wave looks to move over during peak heating with the best potential for rainfall again east of the I55 corridor. PWATS on Tuesday may be just a skosh lower, but still 1.75"-1.85" will be enough for concern especially with antecedent conditions being a bit more favorable. Finally, not to sound like a broken record, but Wednesday the pattern is left unchanged. Again timing will be tricky, which also makes knowing where the heaviest precip will fall a bit tricky as well. But a continuation of localized hydro concerns is anticipated.

As for severe weather potential, overall, the potential will be very conditional...not zero. The main threat will be gusty winds with precip loading evident by the highly saturated environment. And finally temperatures will remain a touch below average through the short term as again cloudiness, rainfall, lower heights/thicknesses, and mesoscale boundaries will help limit duration of heating, though if there is a break in the afternoon hours where sun pops through the cloud cover, there will be some decently strong and rapid surface heating. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The latter half of the week will inherit much of the same broad, southwesterly flow regime aloft of earlier in the weak as the upper troughing within the subtropical jet lingers. This will continue to enhance rainfall chances with largely summertime diurnally-driven convective patterns setting up. The qausi-rex block regime with ridging over southern Canada will keep upper troughing and stubborn subtropical jet parked across the southern U.S. into the end of the week with the only nuanced difference potentially being propagation of the upper trough toward the SE CONUS. This would promote more westerly to northwesterly flow that could relatively lower PWATs from their current near-daily maximums between 1.9 to 2.1 inches. Either way, PoPs will be a mainstay in the forecast particularly for the afternoons each day through the forecast period. Temperatures will be near average through the period with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

A tease beyond Day 7 in the global ensembles does allude that this unsettled weather pattern could eventually break early next week where a stronger, more textbook, rex block attempts to establish across the north-central CONUS and strengthen east coast troughing that could help pivot upper-level flow into a more northwesterly orientation and promote advection of drier, continental air. We'll see if this solution becomes more consistent in the coming days. (TJS)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected during the daylight hours outside of convection. Overnight, MVFR or lower CIGs/VIS will be possible especially if convection develops at night later in the period. Otherwise, surface winds will remain light to moderate and mostly out of the south...but may be a bit more erratic around convection. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 155 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

High pressure anchored over the western Atlantic will maintain light to moderate onshore flow across the local coastal waters. Daily showers and storms will be capable of producing locally hazardous winds and seas, with a few cells each day capable of producing winds in excess of 34 kts over the next few days. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ039-046>048-056>058-064- 070-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.