textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 455 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Hot conditions will continue with heat index readings peaking by Tuesday up to 110F.

- Ongoing minor river flooding continues to impact parts of the Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins.

- Potential for heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms returns toward the middle of this week as an easterly waves moves over the region.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Heat will be the thing as we should move the numbers on the heat index upward until Tuesday when it should peak at around 110F for several locations. This makes sense when looking at the subsident profile ahead of the incoming easterly wave by late Tuesday through mid week. Before we get there, we will continue to see low precip chances but the storms that do develop will have all the energy needed to be strong or even severe temporarily. The area that we will be looking at to bring our area higher rain chances is currently in the westerlies leaving the eastern Kentucky/Tennessee area this morning. Several things will shift to make this weak pulse move southward over the western Atlantic then get caught up in the easterlies bringing it into the gulf. First the high over the gulf will shift north and the flow around it will help bring this underneath or to the south of this high. The first wave of moisture and storms associated with this wave will be forcing out dry air to its west which will get entrained into some of these storms causing some strong downdrafts and damaging straight line winds. PW values will also rise quickly late Tue into mid week which will give rise to a better environment for producing waterspouts and an isolated tornadoe or two. The storms with this will produce heavy rainfall but at the moment, they look to move through any particular area quickly so eventhough there is a flood risk during this mid week time frame, its not going to be widespread or the crazy numbers we saw earlier this month.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Strong mid-upper ridging situated near the northern Gulf Coast will shift northeastward toward the southern Appalachians which will put our area on the southern flank and allow deep-layer easterly flow to prevail by Tuesday. This will direct an inverted trough, broken from the tail-end of a decaying front in the SW Atlantic, our direction by midweek. There are still some disagreements between global model guidance regarding the depth of this trough as it arrives and also its general track around the southern flank of the ridge. However, in general, global guidance all now show this trough axis, and its associated deep moisture and forcing, moving through the area Tuesday through Thursday.

Model sounding analysis indicates a moisture loaded atmosphere with moist adiabatic lapse rates and precipitable water values of 2.2 to 2.3 inches, nearing climatological daily maximum. This in addition to plenty of daytime surfacing heating should sufficiently destabilize land areas through the daytime and scattered to numerous showers and storms could develop especially on Wednesday. Warm rain processes will be in place, so high rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour can be expected. The one saving grace will be a relatively fast storm motion of around 15 knots that will help to somewhat limit the impacts of these higher rainfall rates. Still, our recent heavy rains and very saturated soils will enhance the flash flooding risk for Tuesday through Thursday.

The other impact of the increased rainfall and cloud cover will a slight cool down in temperatures back to more average levels for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Heat indices will also fall back to around 105 degrees, or below any heat advisory levels.

Moving into Thursday and Friday, the influence of the strong 595dm H5 ridge over the Ohio Valley will grow in the wake of the inverted trough axis. However, the region will still be on the southern periphery of the ridge, and this will keep a bit more moisture and a weaker cap over the area. PWATS will fall back to more typical levels of 1.7 to 1.8 inches and MLCAPE will climb to around 1500 to 2000 J/KG each afternoon as temperatures warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Some drier air in the mid-levels will lead to a slightly higher potential for wet microbursts both days and this is reflected by DCAPE values of 1000 to 1200 J/KG. An isolated damaging wind event cannot be ruled out given these DCAPE values. In general though, we can expect to see very typical conditions for early July across the region as we close out the week and move into the upcoming holiday weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

MVFR cigs from BTR to HDC that will lift after sunrise to VFR. VFR will be the rule through this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

High pressure will move north of the coastal waters early this week and be replaced with an easterly wave that is expected to move over the local waters late Tuesday through Thursday. With this wave, expect an uptick in convection with higher rain chances, mostly during the overnight and morning hours. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around convection along with frequent lightning.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.