textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1053 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Extreme cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will be coming an end for now after this morning as the Arctic airmass modifies. Even so, temperatures will remain well below climatological normals, with the warmest day still around 5 degrees below average.

- Strong winds and rough seas will be subsiding significantly as the day progresses.

- Another significant Arctic outbreak is increasingly likely late Friday into Saturday. A strong cold front will usher in another very cold airmass, with the primary threats being dangerous cold and renewed hazardous conditions across the coastal waters. copy.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1053 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

The next several hours will be the coldest of the winter season so far as the core of the current Arctic airmass remains entrenched across the area. Gradual moderation begins later today and continues into Wednesday, with temperatures rising roughly 5 to 10 degrees each day. This warming trend is driven by an eastward moving shortwave trough exiting the base of the larger- scale longwave trough, allowing for modest 500 mb height rises and weakening cold air advection. Despite this moderation, temperatures will remain well below climatological normals through the short term period.

MEFFER

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday night) Issued at 1053 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Broad upper-level troughing has generally encompassed most/all of the CONUS for a week or so now. It's expected to persist across much of the country through the upcoming weekend which will maintain a pattern supportive of periodic frontal passages across the Gulf South. Several shortwave troughs will rotate through the base of the parent trough, with the first affecting the region Wednesday. This feature is weak and low-amplitude, and little sensible weather impact is anticipated locally beyond maintaining dry pattern in place.

Attention then turns to a much stronger system late in the week into the upcoming weekend. Deterministic guidance from both the GFS and ECMWF, along with strong ensemble support, continues to show a high-confidence signal for a polar vortmax diving southward from Ontario into the southeastern US. This trajectory favors direct southward transport of a very cold continental polar/Arctic airmass into the northern Gulf Coast region. Surface ridging originating from this far north and remaining west of the CWA at its southern extent is strongly correlated with significant cold analogs locally.

So how cold will it be? Initial thoughts are the same or colder than the ongoing cold spell. This would likely include at least one day (Saturday) with highs struggling to rise much above freezing, along with several nights of subfreezing temperatures and potentially one or two nights with lows in the upper teens to near 20 degrees. For context, the NBM 90th percentile lows are around 26 degrees at MSY and 18 degrees at MCB, with median values several degrees colder. At this time, guidance does not indicate a meaningful threat for wintry precipitation with this system, as moisture appears limited and the cold air arrives largely post- frontal.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Northerly winds have diminished somewhat since yesterday but will remain a steady flow as cold air advection continues. Winds will gradually weaken and become more variable later today as a surface ridge shifts from central Texas eastward across the CWA.

MEFFER

MARINE

Issued at 1053 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

A strong surface high in excess of 1040 mb currently centered over Texas will migrate toward the northern Gulf Coast by daybreak. As this occurs, the tightening pressure gradient responsible for recent strong winds will relax, allowing marine conditions to steadily improve. Winds are expected to decrease from current Small Craft Advisory levels to less than 10 knots over the open Gulf waters, becoming light and variable over the tidal lakes by late today.

A weak shortwave trough will move through the region Wednesday, driving a reinforcing cold front across the coastal waters. This boundary appears too weak to warrant additional headlines but will help maintain offshore flow. Brief onshore flow may develop Thursday as the associated surface ridge slides east of the area. More impactful marine conditions are likely to return late Friday into the weekend as the next Arctic front moves through, with at least Small Craft Advisory conditions appearing probable and a period of Gales remaining a possibility.

MEFFER

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.