textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 458 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Strong heat will be back with heat index readings up to 108F starting Sunday into the new workweek with heat advisories becoming increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.

- Ongoing minor river flooding continues to impact parts of the Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins.

- Potential for heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms returns toward the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Not a lot to discuss in the short term as far as tangible weather goes. But the heat will begin to move into the discussion. High pressure is building into the deep south and across the northern gulf for the weekend and each day will tack on a few degrees for the heat index bringing us into advisory criteria possibly as early as Sunday. Rain chances are low but not zero, this means that there will still be a few storms around and those that are capable of forming can still play rough as they can take advantage of all the variables that promote strong/severe storms without sharing with other storms.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The strong mid to upper level ridge that will dominate the region over the weekend will shift northward and become more centered over the Ohio Valley as we move into the middle of next week. This will place the forecast area on the southern periphery of the ridge axis, opening the door for a deep layer easterly flow pattern to take hold. Deeper moisture will quickly feed into the area on the back of this easterly flow pattern on Tuesday with PWATS climbing to around 75th percentile for this time of year by the afternoon hours. A review of model soundings on Tuesday indicates a fair degree of instability with MLCAPE peaking between 1500 and 2000 J/KG as mid- level lapse rates gradually steepen due to slight cooling aloft. However, there will also be a great deal of dry air still in place above 700mb, and this will support a high chance of seeing some wet microbursts form from the deepest convective activity. Downdraft CAPE values around between 1000 and 1200 J/KG, so the potential is there to see some damaging wind events occur with the strongest storms Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will also remain extremely warm and any convective activity will tend to form in the late afternoon and evening hours when the convective temperature in the mid 90s is reached.

As we move into Wednesday and Thursday, the overall upper level pattern will be little changed with a strong 500mb high centered over the Ohio Valley and the Gulf South still embedded within a deep layer easterly flow regime. A potent inverted trough axis within this easterly flow will pass through the region during this time period, but there are timing differences in place between the global models. The GFS is more progressive with the inverted trough resulting in the deepest moisture and strongest forcing impacting the area on Wednesday. However, the ECMWF and Canadian models show a slower passage of this inverted trough axis on Thursday. Given these timing differences, the ensemble solution of the NBM will continue to be used for these days. This keeps a general period of 40 to 60 percent PoP in place following the diurnal cycle on both Wednesday and Thursday. One thing that is certain is that PWATS will increase to around 90th percentile as this inverted trough axis moves through. 500mb temperatures will be around -6C, so high rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour will be possible as this trough axis rolls through. This will lead to another period of increased flash flooding risk given the highly saturated soils in place across the region. As we move through the weekend, we will have a better idea of which day will truly see the highest threat of this heavier rainfall. Temperatures will also cool back to more average readings in the lower 90s as moisture continues to increase on the back of the easterly flow regime. Heat index values will also cool slightly to just below heat advisory levels as thunderstorm impacts increase. However, those with higher risk of heat illness should continue to take proper heat precautions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Possible IFR cigs over MCB toward sunrise Sat morning. Otherwise, VFR at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Onshore flow will remain through the weekend. Any thunderstorms that are capable of developing will cause strong erratic winds in and near these storms. Mainly light and variable winds will accompany high pressure moving over the north central gulf. An easterly wave will begin to impact the coastal waters by mid week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.