textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- There is a Slight Risk for severe weather across southwest MS and portions of the Florida parishes.

- Well above average high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s will occur next week. Heat index values will climb into the upper 90s.

- The threat for thunderstorms some possible strong to severe will continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Main forecast problem is honestly confidence in the forecast. The big issue is the potential for convection off and on through the weekend with the first and possibly most impactful round of storms overnight tonight. A lot of this is going to be watching what develops upstream.

We are in a somewhat early Summer type pattern with the ridge that has been dominating the region starting to slide east and become suppressed. Abundant energy in the sub-tropical jet is already quickly moving into the southern Plains. This is going to spark convection across the Red River Valley area and likely severe storms over that way. The main impact for us is continuing to watch the cold pool from the convection that moved through Arkansas and starting to push into MS. This is slowing down rather quickly and how far south the cold pool can move through northern LA and western MS is going to be a big key for tonight. If and this is the big if, convection is able to fire in the Red River area (which should happen) and then consolidate into an MCS it will have the greatest potential of impacting the area. Typically models struggle with how fast and how far these northwest to southeast MCS's move and then if there is a left over boundary (which there will be but does it push far enough south to approach our area) that will allow a more focused path for it to follow. One problem this is more typical of a northwest flow environment and that is not what we are under. Maybe a weak west-northwest flow but the deeper steering currents favor east. CAMS has been favoring the potential for something to drive into our area but have been all over the board for timing and intensity. Right now given everything we have but mainly the potential for a left over boundary from the dying cold pool to our north feel that we will see a possible MCS moving in to our northwest zones between 6 and 9z and then will likely continue to push through the CWA through the morning hours. If the MCS is still on the strong to severe side it will move all the way through into the coastal waters and likely keeps the potential of storms tomorrow afternoon non the lower end. A slightly worked over atmosphere and subsidence behind everything will take much if not all day to remove. If the MCS is on the weakening side as it tries to move in it may still move through or struggle somewhat leaving a remnant boundary over the area. If that happens then after some heating we could see isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms.

The next and possible 3rd round of storms could be another MCS across the Red River area trying to surge southeast. The one difference is Saturday night the ridge is already starting to rebuild over the TX and into the Lower MS Valley and that could place us under northwest flow which would make it a lot more favorable for that to surge into our area.

As for strong to severe storms. Obviously tonight the concern would be strong to damaging wind gusts if we get that well developed MCS northwest of the region it will likely surge southeast. We will have an untapped humid environment in place. ML Cape could be above 1500 j/kg with increasing mid lvl flow h5 40-45kt and impressive upper level diffluence from a splitting jet. In addition it looks like a low level theta e ridge will setup southwest to northeast from southeast TX towards northeast LA and western MS. This would allow the MCS to remain potent and continue at least to the northwestern fringes of our CWA. At that point it then becomes how long can the MCS maintain itself. There will likely be some weakening just after or as it moves into. The weakening trend will likely be very slow and subtle at first meaning it may still move through a 3rd or half of the CWA before there is clear indication. Another indication that it is weakening is if the cold pool starts to run out ahead of it. That would likely be after 8/9z tomorrow morning. Greatest concern would be strong to damaging wind gusts, large hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

If we are able to get thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon the main concern could be in the form of large hail, locally heavy downpours and frequent cloud to ground lighting and given the number of things occuring in the area outside that could be something that need to be watched closely. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday night) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Given the possible impacts in the short term much of the focus is on that however the medium range guidance and their respective operational runs are in great agreement with the pattern next week and have shown rather good continuity and consistency. This would provide some decent confidence in the extended forecast except for the problem of where we sit with respect to the pattern. Right now it looks like we could be on the edge of multiple disturbances riding across the region to just south of that, so multiple shots of much needed rain or looking just off to our north and waving at it. Right now we are stuck with the NBM until we can move one direction or the other. Despite the unknown with respect to rain the one confident thing is continued warm temps.

As we start the new work week we are likely done with our rain chances for at least the next 36 to 48 hours. We will also likely see the warmest temps of the year Monday and Tuesday and a few locations could test records highs. The ridge that has been centered over Mexico/TX and slowly building over the weekend will slide far enough east over the region by Sunday night. The ridge will slide right over the region and models are indicating mid lvl hght between 586dm and 590dm that is in the top 10% and if by chance we measure 590dm with the Tuesday 12z flight that would be a record h5 height. This helps put into perspective the potential for rather hot days Monday and Tuesday along with isolated convection at best both days.

Heading into the middle and back half of the work week we will see the sub-tropical jet become quite active once again streaming across the southern Plains. This time there is strong agreement with the models showing the ridge suppressed well to the south and broad troughing across much of the CONUS. One problem though is that, yes the ridge is suppressed but we may still be right on the northern edge of the ridge. This may lead to multiple impulses quickly moving east across the Lower MS Valley and into the southeastern CONUS but they may still remain just north of the region. /CAB/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Late tonight the main story will be a line of convection that will move through between 07z and 12z. This will have reduced VIS/CIGs as it moves southward. There is some question on whether or not the line will decay before reaching as far as the I10/12 corridor. Winds will also become variable and gusty for a brief time with the passage. Otherwise, VFR conditions late morning and into the afternoon where more isolated convection may develop toward the end of the cycle. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A very early Summer like weather set up will keep a persistent south- southeast flow of 10 to 15 knots in place through the middle of next week. Seas will remain well below any hazardous limits at 1 to 3 feet through the period. The greatest concern and unknown is any shower or thunderstorm impacts. A series of disturbances will try to produce an area of storms over the Red River area and these may try move towards the coastal waters before they dissipate. If they develop these specific type of systems normally do not play well with the models and they usually surge southeast faster and stronger than expected. If they do expect locally higher winds and seas around these storms and winds may become light and variable for 3-6 hours before the synoptic south-southeast winds take back over. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.