textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1010 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

- Cold front will move through early Wednesday with showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms through midday Wednesday.

- After the cold front moves through strong northwest winds will develop over both land and marine areas. Small Craft Advisory headlines are out for all open waters and sounds through Thursday.

- Following the cold front, there will be potential for freezing temperatures again Thursday and Friday morning, mainly along/north of the I-10/12 corridor.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A band of light to moderate rain with an isolated elevated thunderstorm will push through the forecast tonight into tomorrow morning in advance of an approaching cold front. This front is associated with a vigorous shortwave trough axis diving southward from central Canada and the northern Plains. The main heart of the cold pool will remain to the northeast of the forecast area with this trough, but strong northwest flow and cold air advection into the region on Wednesday will keep temperatures cooler than average through Thursday. Highs will only warm into the 50s on Wednesday and lows will fall upper 20s and 30s Wednesday night. A light freeze will take hold along and north of the I-10 corridor, but cold weather headlines will not be necessary. Thursday will remain cooler than average with highs only rising into the low to mid 50s or about 10 degrees below average and lows will fall into the 30s Thursday night. Skies will also be clear through the period as strong upper level subsidence and pool of very dry air advects into the region.

Conditions will begin to warm quickly as we move into Friday and Friday night in response to a building shortwave ridge axis expanding eastward from Texas. Winds will turn westerly on Friday and significant warming will occur as a more Pacific based airmass starts to feed into the region. Highs will quickly climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Friday afternoon and overnight lows will be a good 10 degrees higher in the 40s. Skies will remain clear due to the strong subsidence associated with the deep layer ridging over the region.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A much warmer stretch of weather will remain in place from Saturday through Tuesday as the deep layer ridge axis remains centered over the region. Temperatures will begin to climb as southerly flow develops over the region. Highs will easily climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s each day and lows will gradually rise from the 40s Saturday night into the low to mid 50s for Monday and Tuesday nights. With deep layer ridging still dominating the area and a strong mid-level capping inversion in place, the forecast will remain dry and skies will remain mainly clear through the entire long term period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A band of light to occasionally moderate rain in advance of an approaching cold front will continue to produce MVFR visibility restrictions at all of the terminals through 12 to 14z this morning. Ceilings will also continue to lower through the morning hours with prevailing ceilings of 500 to 800 feet forecast at all of the terminals by 09 to 10z. These ceilings will begin to improve after 15z and prevailing VFR conditions are expected to be back in place by 18z.

MARINE

Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A fairly strong cold front will sweep through the coastal waters Wednesday morning. Southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots will quickly shift to the northwest and north in the morning hours and increase in speed to 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts. These conditions will produce seas of 6 to 9 feet offshore resulting in rough boating conditions for small craft, and a small craft advisory is in effect for all of the lakes, sounds, and open Gulf waters through Thursday afternoon. Winds will continue to remain elevated at 15 to 20 knots through Friday night as a colder airmass advects over the warmer waters. Conditions will begin to improve over the weekend with winds falling below 10 knots as a surface high pressure system becomes centered over the Gulf South.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ530-534.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ532-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ534.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.