textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through today. The ongoing drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and light to moderate winds will lead to potential for some fire spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Wind speeds are expected to rise once again over most of the coastal waters later today causing additional small craft headlines to be posted for mainly open gulf waters. - Minor coastal flooding is likely along sections of the Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Little change in the overall thinking from the previous forecast through the short term period as a shortwave trough ejecting out of Texas and through the Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday into Sunday bring the first chance of rain to the area in the last 3 weeks. In advance of the system, gradually increasing easterly flow will turn more southeasterly and allow for Gulf moisture to feed back into the region starting tonight and continuing into tomorrow. Precipitable water values will rise from slightly below average this afternoon to near average tonight and then to the 75th to 90th percentile by tomorrow afternoon and evening. As moisture increases, cloud cover will also become more pronounced with low to mid-level strato-cumulus development taking place by tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be near average tonight into tomorrow, but will be a few degrees warmer than average tomorrow night as dewpoints climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Once the shortwave trough axis begins to pass through the region beginning Saturday morning through Sunday morning, the combination of moderate upper level forcing and ample moisture will support widespread cloud and light to moderate rain shower development. Instability will still be on the weaker side as lapse rates struggle to climb near 6.0 C/km and overall surface based CAPE peaks out around 800 J/KG. This will lack of instability combined with a lack of any true surface front to enhance low level convergence will greatly limit the overall thunderstorm potential Saturday into Sunday. At most, a few elevated thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, but overall odds of seeing storms will be 20 percent or less. Rainfall totals will generally be a half inch or less due to the lack of any deeper convective activity developing. Temperatures will remain slightly warmer than average with lows in the 60s and highs in the low to mid 80s for both Saturday and Sunday.

By Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence in the mid and upper levels will take hold as a shortwave ridge builds in from the west. This will allow for rapid clearing of skies by Sunday night. Given the lack of any front with the system, temperatures will remain slightly warmer than average with lows only cooling into the 60s Sunday night.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Model guidance has come into much better agreement today on the timing of the next system that will bring a risk of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to the region. The most likely timing for these impacts looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday as a potent longwave trough axis and associated low pressure system and cold front sweep through the region. The biggest issue is that the models are now showing a much more dynamic negatively tilted system passing through the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Strong jet dynamics both aloft and in the low levels will be in place and this will support deep and sustained updraft development through the overnight hours. The strong low level jet and favorable wind field will produce high helicity values of around 200 m2/s2 Tuesday night, but the main limiting factor will be just how much instability the system has to tap into. Right now, lapse rates are middling and overall CAPE is lackluster at around 500 J/KG. However, past experience has shown that these high shear and low CAPE systems can produce some severe thunderstorm activity including tornadoes when they move through the region. There is still ample time to monitor the evolution of the system over the weekend, but remain weather aware as we move into next week, especially on Election Day.

Outside of the potential severe weather threat Tuesday night into early Wednesday, temperatures will remain slightly warmer than average in advance of the system on Monday and Tuesday with lows still only falling into the 60s and highs climbing into the low to mid 80s. Shortwave ridging over the area on Monday will also keep skies largely clear. Once the system passes to the east late Wednesday into Wednesday night, strong cold and dry air advection will allow for both rapid clearing of the skies and cooler temperatures to take hold. Highs will be near average on Wednesday in the upper 70s and lows will dip into the 50s Wednesday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions will persist at all of the terminals through tomorrow. There will be some patchy fog development around 12z tomorrow morning, but the probability of fog development is too low to include the forecast at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters through the upcoming weekend and into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However, the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Smaller craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the open Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for east facing shores starting through the weekend. There will be some passing showers and a few thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through, but no significant impacts to maritime activities are expected from the weak thunderstorms that do develop.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Friday for LAZ070- 076-078-091.

GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Friday for MSZ086.

GM...None.