textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1148 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Gusty northerly winds are settling through the rest of Thursday afternoon.

- Overnight temperatures will will reach the low to mid 40s tonight before warming back to above normal temperatures for the weekend. Another shot of much cooler air will arrive Sunday night.

- Sunday night sees another fairly strong front that could bring some marginally severe storms with it. Stay tuned for this forecast to evolve.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Behind the front that came through last night we are having really nice looking, seasonable weather. Winds have settled to around 10 mph or less and the afternoon high temperature should end up in the mid 60s. Overnight lows tonight dip into the low to mid 40s. Friday begins a short warming trend into the weekend and a sunny, pleasant day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A slow warming trend back into the 80s will occur over the weekend ahead of the next cold front expected for late Sunday into early Monday. This front should be an overnight express for Sunday night/Monday morning. The word express is accurate since this will be moving through at a pace of around 40mph from NW to SE. So, lets get into what this system could produce in the way of storms. Shear values are not impressive but not exactly negligible either. This is in line with all other values like advected sfc CAPE of 800+J. These numbers suggest that there is a reason to watch the evolution of this system as there is a few storms that could become marginally severe. The main issue with any of these would be strong straight line winds. With the best dynamics displaced far to the north, there won't be a lot of support for storms to become severe by themselves. This means there will need to be an accessory, and that will end up being the speed of the line coupling with the downdraft of the individual storms along the line. This could briefly cause wind speeds to gust to lower severe limits. Would be surprised if this had even a marginal risk, but we will need to get closer to fropa before any higher confidence can be derived. The most noticeable thing with this will be winds and temp falls. At the moment, deterministic values will not show any freezing temps behind this system. The time frame we are looking at is Tue morning around sunrise for the coolest temps associated with this front. Turning to the probabilistic side of values, any temps below freezing moves from near 10% at BTR and increases to around 30% for MCB for Tue morning. Winds will be much like the front currently moving through Thu morning. The remainder of the week will show a warming trend albeit slowly but overall should be quite nice for spring.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions across the area, persisting through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Winds are easing and will allow headlines to be dropped by sunset. The main thrust of strongest winds is through the NW gulf which will take up waters up to and along the Miss River. Return flow will resume once again early Sat and Sunday but another strong cold front will move through the northern gulf Sunday night into Monday morning bringing strong northerly to NW winds once again. These winds could also be up to gale force at least for a short time as well. Winds and headlines should fall once again Tue night or Wed morning of next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.