textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the first part of the weekend, with potential for at least patchy dense fog each morning.

- Scattered light showers are in the forecast for Friday, but the next substantial chance of rain will be over the weekend as a cold front approaches and moves through the local area. Rain totals should remain fairly low most places and likely will not result in much, if any, drought relief.

- A significant cool down is forecast Sunday into the beginning of the next work week. The coldest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions across areas north of the I-10/12 corridor mainly Tuesday morning. Those with sensitive vegetation should keep an eye on the forecast, especially given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their cool season dormancy.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

No real changes in forecast thinking from the past few days. A warm and humid air mass will remain in place across the region through Saturday. A cold front currently moving through northwestern Louisiana will conitnue progressing southeastward tonight and will stall near or across the local area some time tomorrow morning. It will remain quasi-stationary through Saturday before a stronger front movs through the area Saturday night.

Seeing some isolated light showers across the northwestern half of the area already, and expet to see additional showers through the night. With the showers being light and fairly fast moving, not expecting much in the way of rainfall accumulation with this activity.

Regarding fog potential, similar to what happened last night, conditions appear more favorable for low clouds than fog. SO will hold off on any land-based dense fog advisories for now. Will mention, however, that there could be some patchy dense fog, especially near the river since the river water temperature is about 15 degrees colder than the current dewpoints.

By Saturday afternoon, a fast-moving mid/upper level disturbance will move into the middle Mississippi Valley causing a strong cold front to move into and through the area Saturday night. Expect to see scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms across the area along/ahead of this front. The overall severe weather threat looks fairly low with this system mainly due to a lack of lift as the entrance region to an 850 mb jet moves away from the area and flow remains slightly divergent across the frontal boundary.

Total rainfall is forecast to be less than a quarter inch most places, so even areas that see some rain will likely not see much in the way of drought improvement.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

In the wake of Saturday night's cold front, much colder and drier air will move into the area. To the chagrin of some and the excitement of others, it will feel like winter again for a few days. Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front and should be in the 40s most places by daybreak Sunday and will struggle to reach 60 degrees most places Sunday afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday will see the coldest temperatures this time around as the high settles more into the area. There will be a low end threat (15-20% chance) of a light freeze for far northern portions of the area Monday morning. The greater threat of freezing conditions will come Tuesday morning, when most areas along/north of the I-10/12 corridor are currently forecast to see low temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Freezing conditions could also extend southward into the river parishessouthwest of the tidal lakes (roughly a 30% chance) but the official forecast keeps temperatures just above freezing in these areas for now. While the extent of the freezing conditions will continue to be refined over the next couple days, it seems clear that a freezing warning will be needed for much of the area Tuesday morning in light of the recent warm temperatures and the fact that many plants have already started to green up after their winter dormancy.

Wednesday will be a transition day with near normal morning temperatures but warmer than normal afternoon temperatures as the high shifts farther eastward and the air mass moderates.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are already prevailing across the area and expect to see continued lowering of cigs over the next several hours through daybreak. Could see some patchy fog, but cigs lookto be the greater impact. Passing light showers are not expectged to result in any substantial impacts, but will be carried in prob30 groups where the chances are best. South/Southwesterly winds should be a little lighter Friday as a front stalls across the area resulting in a weaker pressure gradient.

MARINE

Issued at 1050 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will persist with patchy dense fog each night/morning through Saturday. A strong cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in again behind it. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will cause winds to strengthen and turn offshore again Saturday evening. Once hazardous conditions set in Saturday evening, expect at least Small Craft Advisory conditions to persist through around midday Monday. Gale headlines may be needed Sunday due to frequent gale-force gusts.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ534-536-538-550- 552-555.