textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- A strong cold front will move through late tomorrow, bringing cooler and much drier conditions along with very strong northerly winds. This will lead to multiple impacts.

- First impact is elevated fire weather concerns. Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for all of southwestern MS and portions of southeast LA for Saturday but if the front speeds up anymore a Red Flag Warning may be needed for far northwestern portions of the CWA for Friday afternoon and early evening.

- Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions. A Gale Watch has been issued for all of the coastal waters beginning tomorrow evening through Saturday evening. Marine headlines may be needed for much of the coastal waters into the new work week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

BLUF - FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING and a Fire Weather Watch has already been issued for the northwestern half of the CWA.

The cold front will quickly move through tomorrow and behind it much drier and cooler air will quickly build in behind it. This front is going to likely be dry so little to any rain is expected over the area.

For all fire weather concerns please refer to Fire Weather Section below.

The other impact from this front and will be a welcome one is the much cooler temps. Models and especially the NBm really struggle with the early season fronts and how much mixing we will see. It appears that the Model guidance both MOS and raw is catching up and shows rather dry conditions overnight tomorrow night through Saturday night. The other part that the NBM tends to struggle with is overnight lows in these situations, especially the second night low. Guidance continues to trend cooler and cooler for Sunday morning and even has gotten quite cool for Friday ngiht/Saturday morning. Unless the CAA is much stronger that what is currently being advertised by the models I think some of the guidance is being a little overzealous with the cool down tomorrow night. it will still be rather cool with lows in the 50s maybe the outside chance of the far northwest dropping into the upper 40s.

As for Saturday night almost everything is set for the coldest night of the season. In fact guidance continues to trend down with all of the main MOS products showing some location's dropping into the lower 40s. The biggest question with Saturday night is wind. The models still show winds staying up at h925 and h850 all night with h925 winds possibly up to 25 kts all night across the eastern half of the CWA. Even if the sfc winds are able to drop and even decouple, low level winds of this magnitude will still promote some mixing. With that I have used a mix of the MOS guidance and NBM for lows Sunday morning which shows lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The very pleasant conditions this weekend will quickly depart however it will still feel more like fall going into next week. Medium range models overall are in general agreement with the pattern over our area and the biggest thing is...expect the lack of rain to continue and the temperatures to slowly climb. No adjustments from the NBM in the long term.

The disturbance that brings our front tomorrow and the northwest flow behind it quickly breaks down before we even get into the new work week. Ridging already over TX and the western Gulf quickly builds in Monday and it will just dominate the region well into next week. High pressure at the sfc will quickly shift to the northeast however we will still be dominated by high pressure as a large anti-cyclone over south-central Canada south of the Hudson Bay and it will wedge all the way into the Lower MS Valley and even over the TX coast. This is going to keep us dry with no rain in the forecast however we won't see dewpoints recover greatly and thus overnight lows should still be fairly comfortable. On the other hand the LL temps will begin to moderate and we will likely be back in the mid 80s over much of the area by Tuesday. /CAB/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

All terminals are in VFR now and most will likely persist through much of the night but around 9/10z we may begin to see some terminal drop into MVFR as low clouds try to develop and even some reduced vsbys. However confidence is rather low in both of these so hold off showing major impacts at this time. Most likely location to see low clouds appears to be coastal MS where LL winds do begin to increase likely driving more low cigs. The northwest around BTR and MCB may have the best chance of reduced vsbys as they will likely go calm first overnight and have the longest and best chance of developing some radiation fog. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The last bit of benign marine conditions will occur tonight but by tomorrow afternoon/evening conditions will become extremely impactful. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapidly building seas. Gale conditions are possible across all of the coastal waters and with that we have issued a Gale Watch beginning tomorrow night and continuing through Saturday evening. Some locations like the tidal lakes and near shore waters will likely be able to come down to a Small Craft Advisory Saturday at some point but strong winds will persist into Sunday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday and slack off some but there is a good chance that headline may be needed into the beginning to the new work week. /CAB/

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Main concern is the near critical fire weather conditions expected to develop behind our strong cold front tomorrow. Greatest importance is the Fire Weather Watch we have issued for all of swMS and portions of seLA along and northwest of a line from Thibodaux to Franklinton. The front is now expected to move through during the afternoon tomorrow and that may provide an increased risk if fire weather conditions for tomorrow now. Winds will quickly shift out of the north and pick up after the front moves through and the much drier air will not be far behind. If this front speeds up anymore the RH could drop to critical levels and as winds increase wildfire spread could become a problem late Friday afternoon. The higher confidence with respect to fire danger is Saturday.

The much drier air will continue to surge into the area overnight with dewpoints possibly dropping into the 30s over a good portion of the CWA. On Saturday we will see sunny skies and winds in the first 1500-3000 ft will be out of the same direction (out of the NNE) allowing for efficient mixing. The sunny skies and unidirectional winds will promote efficient mixing. This will likely lead to wind gusts of 15-20 mph with some gusts approaching 30 mph across most locations along and north of I-10. This will is also going to lead to even drier air mixing into the area with the RH expected to drop into the mid to lower 30% range with some locations seeing the min RH below 30%. This will combine with current D1 and D2 drought conditions across all of southwest Mississippi and much of southeast LA along and northwest of a line from Thibodaux to Franklinton. This could provide ample fuel for wildfires. The combination of breezy to gusty winds, current drought conditions, ample fuel, and very dry conditions will allow any fire that develops to spread quickly. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.

GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MSZ068>071.

GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.