textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 557 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Moisture will return to the area through the remainder of the week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon.

- Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

There has been very little change to the short term forecast logic and expectations, so much of the short term discussion from the previous AFD still applies. The atmospheric setup has the region remaining between two upper level ridges...one over the Four Corners region and the other over the western Atlantic through the short term. The upper low over the southern Appalachians has opened and moved downstream leaving a weakness in the mid and upper levels in its wake. This weakness allows for Gulf moisture to stream northward.

Overall weather will be very typical of what we think of as typical summertime/August conditions. Expect afternoon rain with a possibility of some strong thunderstorms somewhere in the area with POPs varying from 20%-50% across the area. Particular attention will be paid to any sea/lake breeze boundaries to kick off the afternoon convection. Temperatures will be in the 70s for overnight lows and in the low 90s for daytime highs. When combined with the relative humidity, we can expect maximum feels- like temperatures between 100-105. All these temperatures may climb by a degree or two over the next several days. Winds will remain light, generally less than about 5 mph and somewhat variable out of the south to east; an exception here is that any of the stronger storms may generate locally stronger winds. [Schlotz/Frye]

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

(Forecast/expectations have not changed since last night, so will not make any changes to the overnight long term discussion.) A fairly typical summertime pattern will be in place through the extended period. The western periphery of the Bermuda ridge will be over about the eastern half of the Gulf over the weekend, and cover most of the northern Gulf by midweek next week. With ridging over the Rockies, this will leave a bit of a weakness in the upper pattern (592 dm vs 595 dm with the ridges) from near Memphis to Dallas-Fort Worth for the first half of next week.

With weak onshore flow expected, and precipitable water values in the 50th to 75th percentile range, isolated to scattered afternoon convection looks to be the consistent trend for the first half of the week. At this point, NBM PoP12 for the daytime hours Monday and Tuesday looks to be a little on the high side (by 10-20 percent) south of Interstate 10.

Temperatures will likely be within a few degrees of the 90 degree mark each day, with timing of convective development determining which side of 90 a location ends up on each day. Overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s will continue. Heat index values will likely approach Heat Advisory criteria (108F) along the Interstate 10/12 corridors in locations that don't have storms develop until late afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. (RW)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions for all terminals overnight and most terminals will continue these levels through Fri. The only location with high enough TSRA chances will be HUM and this will be timed in current taf set.

MARINE

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The low-level pressure gradient may tighten slightly Friday into the weekend as the influence of the Bermuda high and its surface high pressure becomes better established over the eastern Gulf while lower pressures persist over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This will alter flow to more of a south to southeast direction today and then southeasterly to easterly through the weekend. Speeds should generally remain around 5 to 10 knots, although periods of 10 to 15 knots will be possible over the outer waters as an easterly fetch becomes better established going into the weekend. Seas will generally remain 1 to 2 feet today with 2 to 3 feet for the outer waters this weekend.

Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion, over the coastal waters during the overnight and early morning hours. Then activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze during the afternoon hours. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around convection. [Schlotz/Frye]

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.