textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

- Small Craft Advisory headlines are in effect for all open waters and sounds through Thursday Afternoon.

- There will be potential for freezing temperatures for a few hours Thursday morning along and north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor. Wind chills will drop into the lower 20s briefly along the Mississippi coast and St. Tammany Parish leading to a Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST.

- Dry weather is expected until at least Tuesday, and possibly longer. Above normal high temperatures are expected for most of the period from Friday through at least mid-week next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Upper trough axis extended from near Atlanta to near Houston this evening, with ridging over Nevada. At the surface, a cold front was already well off the Louisiana coast, with high pressure extending from western Minnesota to west Texas. Skies were mostly clear across the area, but there was a patch of clouds just to our northwest and north moving southeastward. However, those clouds have been dissipating over the last few hours. Temperatures at 11 pm CST were mainly in the 40s.

The upper trough will continue to move across the area overnight. Didn't make any changes to the Cold Weather Advisory, as it appears to be a rather borderline event. The area is expected to remain in fairly strong northwesterly upper flow through Friday night, with a brief reinforcement of cooler air moving into the area after midnight Friday night. Forecast precipitable water values near 1/3 inch on Thursday and 1/2 inch on Friday signal there won't be a lot in the way of clouds, let alone precip. Trimmed Thursday dew points slightly during the day, closer to the 25th percentile as NBM usually doesn't lower these enough in cold, dry advection. And I may not be low enough on these.

Looks like the passage of the current thermal trough aloft won't occur until perhaps the afternoon hours Thursday, so the afternoon is going to be a bit on the cool side. Highs in the lower and middle 50s would be 5-10 degrees below normal. Friday and Saturday morning lows will be slightly below normal, but with dry air in place, Friday should warm up nicely with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, about 5-7 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Upper ridging will gradually build into the western Gulf and much of the western and northern Gulf Coast states over the weekend into early next week. A southern stream shortwave could approach the area by Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week. The GFS operational solution is a bit faster than the ECMWF, but that will be the next opportunity for precipitation, and right now, anything over about 20 to 30 percent PoPs is probably too much. Won't try to chase a 3-6 hour timing difference on Day 7 and will let the NBM numbers ride.

We'll finally get off the temperature roller-coaster for a bit during this period after a brief cool off on Saturday, which may actually still be above average. High temperatures will be above normal, with many areas potentially seeing highs near or above 70 degrees from Sunday onward, with some areas peaking in the middle 70s, or perhaps a little warmer by midweek, a good 10F or more above normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Primarily a wind forecast, and not even a lot of change in wind direction at this point. The BKN025 at KPQL will be out of the area shortly and the clouds with bases around FL050 near KMCB have been dissipating over the last few hours. Won't rule out a few shallow cumulus caught under the inversion during the daytime hours, but temperature/dew point spreads would indicate bases above FL040.

MARINE

Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters through Thursday afternoon. Winds drop off pretty quickly by sunset Thursday, and we can probably get by without Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines beyond the advisory. A brief period of improved conditions is expected overnight Thursday night into Friday before cooler and drier air returns Friday evening into Saturday morning. Additional headlines may be briefly necessary at that time. By Saturday afternoon, conditions should improve, with more favorable conditions for marine activities for the remainder of the weekend into the middle of next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday for LAZ076-079-080.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST Thursday for MSZ083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.