textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- A weak tropical wave will continue to slowly approach the LA coast this weekend. This is leading to moderate winds and will drive rich Gulf moisture north into the area through the weekend.

- Strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds will continue this evening leading to hazardous marine conditions and minor coastal flooding. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of the coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all coastal areas except surrounding the tidal lakes through tonight. - Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widespread light to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms through the weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12 corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing locally heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are occuring across portions of the central Gulf Coast this afternoon. Very brief showers are moving generally southeast to northwest as a plume of tropical moisture tries to work its way into the region from the Gulf. At this juncture it appears the moisture or at least the better tropical moisture is delayed somewhat, which is leading to lower coverage during this diurnal cycle. We still have a few hours for more concentrated or more numerous showers and storms to develop as peak heating meets up with gradually higher ticking moisture levels. After heating decreases that afternoon, there will be a downward trend to more isolated activity with most focused over the waters. Speaking of waters, the low level flow will begin to decrease later tonight and during the day Saturday, which will disrupt the continued fetch over the waters allowing for coastal flood potential to decrease after the next high tide cycle.

Rain chances will again continue for Saturday as more tropical moisture is fed into the region from the Gulf. That said, CAMs are a bit messy with some showing lesser amounts/chances than others. Globals like GFS and ECMWF still show a decent signal, so POPs were left relatively unchanged. The axis of best moisture and lift (where the heaviest precip will reside) still looks to be east of the I55 corridor or more specifically the Pearl River Basin to the Pascagoula River Basin. This is not good news for locations in between that have recently experienced higher amounts of rainfall recently. Because of this localized flash flooding will continue to be of concern for these areas as well as urban areas of New Orleans. With Pwat values above 2.1" any shower or storm activity will be capable of producing heavy rainfall and likely some localized flooding concerns.

Rain chances continue into Sunday, but we will finally start watching an H5 592dam ridge nose eastward over the northern Gulf. This will begin to suppress rain chances going into the new workweek. With the suppression of rainfall and increasing heights, expect temperatures to respond by being several degrees warmer. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Long range trends continue to be mostly dry but not completely rain free with diurnally driven isolated activity possible during the afternoon and evening hours. That said, any activity will be the exception rather than the rule given again the continued upper level ridge suppressing things just a bit with modest subsidence. Again, just like the tail end of the short term, the long term will be characterized by continued lower rain chances and higher temperatures with daytime highs exceeding 90 degrees in most spots and heat index values approaching the 100 degree mark during the afternoon and early evening hours. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

VFR or MVFR this afternoon and evening can be expected outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms. There will likely be a small break overnight before MVFR or perhaps lower CIGs develop overnight across most terminals. Winds will also decrease shortly after sunset. Otherwise, expect more convection to develop toward the end of the cycle Saturday. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Tight pressure gradient remains over the local waters this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all gulf waters and local tidal lakes. Eventually, the pressure gradient will begin to relax overnight tonight allowing for improving conditions by Saturday morning. Overall, light to moderate seas are anticipated to start the new workweek and lasting through the end of the forecast cycle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with the higher coverage early in the forecast period. Winds and seas will locally be high in and near convection. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058- 070-076>078-080-082-084-087-091-093-095-097-098.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ529-531- 533-541-543-551-553-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534>536- 554-557-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ531-533- 541-543-551-553-570-572.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ534>536-554- 557-575-577.