textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- A drier pattern is expected through at least the weekend. The primary concern will be increasing heat, with heat indices approaching advisory criteria from tomorrow onward.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

An upper low was over west Texas this morning, stuck within a ridge covering much of the country. There was also a weak trough over Georgia and Florida. At the surface, high pressure was centered from near Jackson to our southeastern coastal waters. Any significant cloud cover this morning was primarily at cirrus level. Closest significant rainfall was on the Florida coast and over Texas. Temperatures at noon were mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The only appreciable change in the pattern through the weekend will be that the Florida-Georgia trough will deepen slightly, and may drift into the extreme northeast Gulf. This would generally mean little day to day change in the local weather scenario. If there's going to be any organized precipitation, it would likely be limited to far eastern portions of the area...the Mississippi coastal counties, . and probably delayed until late in the day. For the most part, temperatures should run in the middle 90s through the weekend, but wouldn't be surprised to see a few spots in the upper 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid and upper 70s.

While some forecasts have been mentioning 100 degrees over the weekend, we're keeping just short of that currently for a few reasons. The ground remains fairly wet from recent rains in most areas, making it slower to heat up. Secondly, the area that has guidance showing 100 degrees, the Mississippi coast, is generally only the hottest area this time of year when north winds are strong enough (usually close to 10 mph) to overcome the sea breeze cycle. Third, forecast soundings generally indicate convective temperatures in the mid 90s. Storm development would also cut off heating before 100 is reached.

We'll continue to assess the potential for issuance of Heat Advisory products, but none are being issued at this time.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Medium range models eventually take the weak upper low over the northeast Gulf and shear it out to the northeast along the Atlantic Coast. We'll remain on the southeast end of the upper ridge to our northwest. A weak frontal boundary could sink as far south as Interstate 20 by midweek, but probably not into our area. Any threat of thunderstorms is likely to be limited to coastal areas on the sea breeze boundary.

This should generally keep high pressure over the area, with only low end PoPs expected during the afternoon hours into the middle of next week. This will keep high temperatures in the middle and upper 90s into the middle of next week. If anyone is going to reach 100 degrees next week, it'd probably be Monday or Tuesday, when there's at least a small chance of that occurring. Lows will be in the 70s, although wouldn't be surprised to see a few urban areas remain above 80 degrees overnight (New Orleans, Gulfport/Biloxi) on at least one night. Heat related product issuances remain possible, if not likely.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions at forecast issuance time with the exception of KBTR, where they are reporting BKN020. Expect their cloud bases to lift above FL030. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Any threat of thunderstorms is too low to mention in the forecast at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

With the pressure gradient rather weak, daily winds will tend toward a diurnal cycle of offshore winds during the overnight and morning hours and onshore in the afternoon. Potentially enough wind to justify Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines tomorrow night, but won't issue for now unless neighboring offices opt for one.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.