textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- A strong trough will move through the region late Wednesday. This will drive a cold front across the region with showers and thunderstorms impacting the area during the overnight hours Wednesday night. This system will have the potential to bring a few strong to severe storms with all modes of severe weather possible, and the entire area will have the potential of seeing strong to severe storms. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates as this threat evolves.

- In the wake of the cold front, much cooler and drier air will move into the area for about 36 to 48 hours Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will moderate quickly for the weekend, but another shot of much cooler air will arrive Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The highlight of the short term is the frontal passage we are expecting this evening to overnight. General timing is enter the area about 5pm and depart around 5am. Prior to the front we expect scattered showers to develop and in fact they are beginning to form just to our west. Associated with the front itself will be sufficient lift and shear to support isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and a few tornadoes up to EF-2 strength. Widespread rain amounts will be in the 1" range with isolated pockets up to 2-ish inches. This will be enough rain to make ponding of water likely and could result in roads becoming impassable.

As always stay tuned for details as the weather evolves and have a way to receive watches and warnings.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Behind the near term frontal system, we expect a period of clear, but cool weather more typical of the late winter or early spring. Then, into the weekend warming brings well-above normal temperatures and humidities. By late Sunday night another upper level trough sweeps out of the plains bringing more chances of rain and stormy weather followed by a brief cool-down.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Current conditions are VFR across the area. Frontal system this evening and tonight, roughly from 00Z to 06Z Thursday, brings rain, thunder, and high gusty winds resulting in IFR conditions. Convection and rain continue after the front passes. Winds will continue after the frontal passage through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Onshore winds around 10kt prevail ahead of the frontal passage forecasted for this evening and tonight. Showers will occur ahead of the front transitioning to stronger convection as the front nears and passes with an increase in wind speed to around 15kt. Convection will be accompanied by localized strong, gusty winds and can't rule out waterspouts. When the front passes winds will shift to out of the north and increase to 20-25kt which has prompted a Small Craft Advisory. As the impacts of the passing front decrease, wind speeds drop below 10kt and turn easterly through the weekend. Another system very late in the weekend is likely to produce another round of hazardous marine conditions.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.