textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area through Sunday evening. Lighter rain will linger to the west of I-55, but not present threats for localized flooding. East of I-55 there is still a threat of heavier rain, an additional 1 - 3 inches with locally higher amounts are possible, which could cause localized flooding issues. A Flood Advisory is in place until midnight for the eastern half of the area. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates regarding this threat. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown!

- Coastal water levels are forecasted to inch their way up over the next several days and advisories may again be necessary later in the week. S0, again, continue to monitor forecast updates.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

We are finally getting out of the heavy rains. Definitely still have a lot of the area covered with rain and are still being squeezed by the front hanging just to our north. That front is moving south only slowly and it will be late tonight or early tomorrow before it makes it to the coast and into the Gulf. With the general SW-NE orientation of the front, we are still expecting the longest duration and heaviest rains in the MS coastal counties. We have a Flood Advisory running until midnight for the half-CWA east of I-55.

Once the front moves on into the Gulf we can expect to see some drier air and lack of rain, especially in the northern half of the area. Nearer the front, we still expect PoPs in the 30-50% range and depending on how far the front pushes south those rain chances may exist just onshore along the coastal areas. Unfortunately, the lack of rain may also carry slightly warmer daytime highs and we see some near-90 temps by mid-week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Troughing will continue along the northern Gulf Coast and by Wednesday night the associated frontal boundary will be well offshore over the Gulf. A stronger shortwave over west Texas into Thursday should entrain some deeper tropical moisture from the southwest Gulf that will reach the local area by late Friday. This blast of tropical moisture, unfortunately, looks to produce another wet weekend across the area next weekend. While most or all of the area should be dry Wednesday and Thursday, rain chances will increase for Friday and Saturday as precipitable water values increase again to nearly daily max values (2.3 inches). Global models have some disagreement about the details this far out, but there's enough similarity to not back off the PoPs in the forecast.

Midweek temperatures have trended upward a bit and won't rule out a 90 degree high or two on Thursday. A bit of a cool-off comes at the end of the week with the presence of clouds and precipitation that may trend weekend temperatures down a bit from previous runs, closer to 80 than 90.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Low CIGs due to a stratus deck drive mostly IFR conditions through the most of the period. This will begin to lift toward the end of the period and should trend toward MVFR. Also, scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms will continue through the period impacting VIS in the vicinity of the rainfall.

MARINE

Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The frontal system currently accentuating the rain in the area will continue to drop southward and winds will briefly relax to 10 knots or less later today as a front stalls along the coast. This front is expected to then slowly push through the waters on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will turn northeasterly behind the front and increase to 15 to 20 knots as drier air advects over the warm waters. Another low will form along the front by Wednesday, and this should increase winds in small craft advisory range of 20 to 25 knots through the end of the week. Seas will also increase to 5 to 7 feet by Wednesday over the open waters well offshore and remain at those levels through the end of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ039-058-064-070-071- 076>082-087-089>093-098>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through this evening for MSZ070-071-077-083>088.

GM...None.