textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday before moderating midweek. A second cold front will bring another round of cool and dry conditions to the area toward the end of the work week and into the weekend.

- Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through Tuesday. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Cool and dry weather will persist through midweek as the area remains on the southeastern flank of surface high pressure. The dry air mass will promote slightly larger than typical diurnal temperature ranges as morning lows drop to near or below normal levels with afternoon highs climbing slightly above normal.

Based on this morning's lows and in a nod to latest MOS guidance, have lowered tonight's temperature forecast by a few degrees compared to NBM guidance mainly through the Pearl and Pascagoula drainage basins. Some question in the amount of cloud cover for western areas, so while latest MOS guidance is 3-5 degrees lower than the deterministic NBM, the amount of high cirrus streaming in from the west/southwest adds enough uncertainty to not make substantial adjustments in these areas.

Resultant forecast calls for lows in the 40s across areas along/north of the I-10/12 corridor and in the low to mid 50s across most southern areas. Coldest spots will likely be through the drainage areas where temperatures dropped into the mid to upper 30s this morning.

Biggest question when it comes to afternoon temperatures will be cloud cover. Current forecast calls for afternoon temperatures generally in the mid to upper 70s, but in areas that have a little less cloud cover, would not be surprised to see some lower 80s mixed in.

Some moderation is expected by late Tuesday Wednesday as an upper low currently located over northern Mexico opens up and moves toward the lower/middle Mississippi Valley. Low level winds should generally remain offshore, which will keep deep Gulf moisture shunted to the south, but mid level moisture advection will still increase cloud cover and result in a warming trend for overnight lows. Can't entirely rule out a few light showers as the shortwave axis traverses the area, but with low levels remaining pretty dry, most light precipitation will likely evaporate before reaching the surface. Thus have kept the forecast dry over land areas for the time being, with the greatest chance of rain not coming until later in the week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

A strengthening trough will drive a cold front through the area late Wednesday night and into Thursday. Models are coming into a little better agreement on the larger scale pattern while the rainfall potential with the system remains less certain. Any showers that develop would be likely confined to the coastal areas but with the lack of moisture accompanying the system, rainfall amounts would be on the light side.

Cooler and drier air will become established behind the front with highs Friday and Saturday generally in the low to mid 60s. The main concern will be low temperatures, especially on Saturday morning, when some areas could dip into the mid to upper 30s, mainly across inland areas. Some patchy frost will certainly be possible and while still somewhat unlikely, a few areas in the northern portions of the forecast area could flirt with freezing temperatures.* Discussion goes here

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period under the influence of high pressure. Expect winds to be generally north or northeasterly 5-10kts or lower.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Generally benign conditions will persist through the middle of the week as the area remains under the southeast flank of surface high pressure. Hazardous conditions are likely to return Thursday or Thursday night as winds strengthen again behind a cold front.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.