textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Daily scattered to numerous showers and storms with the highest chances today and Sunday. Widespread severe weather and heavy rain will be low, a few storms each day could become strong to severe gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. The potential will exist for waterspout and tornado activity as well.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Broad scale 594dm ridge is currently encompassing pretty much all of the southeastern US. The center was only a few hundred miles northeast of the CWA yesterday but has since drifted farther northeast. At the same time, an easterly wave is tracking along the northern Gulf Coast. That combo of less subsidence aloft, increased moisture and already hot conditions is resulting in widespread convection for portions of the local forecast area. Coverage has rapidly spread through the Mississippi and Atchafalaya River basins over the last hour. Will certainly have to keep an eye out for marginally severe downbursts and small hail in these storms with typical summer atmospheric column profile in place. Although mean flow is decent, any storms that get hung up on a boundary may be able to produce some localized urban flooding. Areas east of those river basins are close to the ridge center and much less likely to see many if any storms.

The arguably more impactful weather hazard though is heat. 500mb heights what they are combined with mid/upper 70 degree dewpoints in place have driven heat indices well into the 100s. Heat Advisory in effect today won't be extended into tomorrow as temps come down just enough with ridging aloft weakening. That's not to say it wont be hot, just that we're borderline advisory today and probably just under it tomorrow.

MEFFER

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Looks like a pretty typical summertime pattern for the remainder of the week and going into the holiday weekend. Global models show northern stream trough tracking across the country will aide in transition of upper ridge centered over the southeast US to the Desert Southwest. In doing so, locally we'll lose inhibition thats been limiting storm coverage lately. Many days this upcoming week will see storms developing initially along seabreeze convergence boundaries. Once those storms becoming mature and then outflow dominate, they'll spread to other portions of the local forecast area. Areas that don't see storm development until later in the day will be more likely to approach heat advisory criteria.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR will dominate the period unless a storm passes over a terminal. MVFR to LIFR conditions possible in that situation with VIS driving down the category from heavy rainfall. The highest probs will remain along and west of a line from MCB to MSY. Storms will be moving to the west early then NW later in the day, and a few of these could produce strong wind shear from downbursts. Winds generally light and variable except for outflow boundaries from storms that may change local wind directions for short periods of time.

MEFFER

MARINE

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A weak easterly wave is currently moving through the northern Gulf as it wraps around the periphery of a ridge centered northeast of the area. Winds will generally be 10kts or less and direction will vary through midweek, becoming more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. The overall gradient is relatively weak which is why winds struggle to exceed 10 kts and seas/waves mostly under a couple feet. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day. A few may be stronger and could produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts, and locally hazardous seas.

MEFFER

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.