textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 235 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Partly to Mostly sunny skies are forecast today and tomorrow as rain chances remain near the coast and offshore waters.

- Small Craft Advisories are in place for most of the coastal waters today through at least late Thursday.

- Tropical cyclone development is expected in the southern Gulf later this week. Uncertainty remains on the eventual track and strength, but potential impacts include gusty winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and higher waves/seas on the coastal waters.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Cold front remains offshore with some showers and storms mostly focusing on this. High pressure remains over the area and remains mostly dry, and mostly to partly cloudy over land. This should remain the case today and tomorrow although a few places could see a little gustier winds up to 15 knots at times during the day. Otherwise temperatures should remain right at normal or just slightly above normal for the short term.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The biggest concern for the long term is the disturbance in the southwest Gulf AL92, likely soon to be named Isaias. Satellite analysis shows disorganized showers and storms but it has gradually been getting its act together. Still no closed center yet but it is getting close. Depending on when it actually forms will really determine how the track ends up. Most of the global ensemble guidance has the track ending up closer to our area in southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi, while the AI models (e.g. Google Deepmind) takes it closer to AL and the FL Panhandle. Which one of these two is still too uncertain, but generally speaking if it ends up being on the stronger side it can break out a little more towards the east, while if it was weaker it would remain more of a northward track. Regardless of the track, there are several potential impacts on the table, including gusty winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding. Most guidance has it strengthening to a strong tropical storm to low cat hurricane but due to a lot of shear especially on the western side of the Gulf, we would see more of a lopsided hurricane, so if we can stay on the west side of that, it may slightly mitigate the heavy rain or tornado potential. However rain bands definitely could drop very efficient rainfall so generally agreeing with WPC's current forecast of around 3-6 in for the eastern half of our area (east of I-55). Coastal flooding will also be a concern with water getting pushed northward currently by the disturbance, although we are entering a neap tide cycle which might help keep the max height on these down a bit. So overall, stay tuned to the latest forecasts and more details should start to get clearer once formation actually happens.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Mixture of VFR to MVFR conditions for primarily ceiling are prevailing this afternoon at all terminals. Winds are northeasterly around 10 knots with gusts up to around 15 knots. Ceilings are slightly lower but should generally rise again, especially further away from the coasts. Winds will slack again tonight before picking up again tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Overall there will be chances of showers and storms over a cold front draped over the coastal waters, however starting late tonight, winds will begin to pick up especially east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It will expand to all of our coastal waters on Wednesday so Small Craft Advisories were issued. Both winds will be gusty up to 30-35 knots and wave heights of up to 9 to 12 especially further away from the coast. The tropical disturbance in the Gulf will be the main concern to watch as it approaches the north Gulf Coast.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ532-534>536- 554-557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ534>536-554- 557-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 3 AM CDT Friday for GMZ543-551-553-570-572.