textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 411 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

- Warm with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week. Organized severe storms are not expected, but an isolated strong to severe storm with heavy rain is possible. Cold front is expected to move through over the weekend with more widespread rainfall. - Winds will remain elevated for marine areas and may be in and out of caution levels for the next several days. Northerly winds behind a cold front over the weekend may rise to around 25kt.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Minor changes in store for today and Fri. This will be mainly due to placement of storms and rainfall, which should be mainly over the western half of the area today and again Fri. The chances will be higher today than Fri though. The weakness that has been over the area is being pushed and pulled east and west giving most of the area some needed rainfall since the beginning of this week. Believe it or not, there are some locations that have not recieved any rainfall this week so far. But this will change by the weekend. Some of these storms today could become strong or low end severe with hail and winds being the main issues expected.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Upstream on Saturday, eyes will shift to the approaching surface cold front to our northwest and rather robust parent upper level trough. Much of the upper level support and get dynamics will be displaced to our north, but there will be enough low level convergence and low level moisture maintenance for widespread showers and storms associated with the front late Saturday and Sunday. Ahead of the front, isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible during the daytime Saturday. However, lacking the upper level support, modest lapse rates and meaningful shear, think the overall severe weather threat will be fairly limited along and ahead of the front. That said, brief heavy rainfall will be possible as PWATs climb into the 1.6-1.8" range respectively.

As mentioned with yesterday morning's package, GFS showed the front stalling right along the coast late Sunday and into Monday leading to more stratiform isentropic showers on Monday. The ECM has come around closer to that scenario, although it is drier with the front a bit further south (yet closer than the forecast guidance shown yesterday at this time). Regardless, by late Monday and early Tuesday, an H5 trough will grab the surface feature and finally force it downstream. With a slightly cooler and drier trend by early to midweek next week setting up under a dry northwesterly flow aloft. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

IFR cigs should remain over the eastern half of the area. While cigs will spread westward, they should remain mostly MVFR over the western half through mid morning before becoming VFR for all sites. Again, there will be high enough chances to show TSRA for most terminals today mainly western half of the area today. This activity will decay with sunset once again but MVFR to IFR cigs will be back overnight for most terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Nearly stationary high pressure will continue a persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet over the coastal waters through the next several days. There could be brief periods of winds approaching 20 knots. A cold frontal passage late Saturday or Sunday will turn winds northerly on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories may be necessary Sunday night into Monday behind the front.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.