textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day through the work week as an active weather pattern sets in across the local area. - While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain. Waterspouts and/or brief/weak tornadoes will be possible, mainly Sunday and Monday.

- The heat threat will generally be low, but heat index values in some areas could still approach advisory criteria before showers and thunderstorms develop each afternoon. Those with outdoor plans/work should continue to exercise caution from late morning through the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Weak low pressure located over the northern Gulf will continue to meander westward through the remainder of the weekend. NHC continues to indicate a VERY LOW (10%) chance of development with this circulation. However, regardless of development, it will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to SE LA and S MS Sunday as it moves through the local area.

Overall threat of severe weather looks low, but one or two storms could still become strong to severe, mainly across western portions of the area where drier mid level air will still be in place as the more humid air mass moves in from the east. For comparison, forecast soundings near New Orleans indicate DCAPE of around 500-600 J/kg while it's near or over 1000 J/kg near Baton Rouge.

Overall coverage should remain generally scattered, but a few of the storms that do develop could result in a localized heavy rain threat as a plume of deep tropical moisture moves westward with the low. Highest precipitable values will be located generally south of the I-10/12 corridor, where the model forecast soundings indicate PW of 2.2-2.3" by midday. With those values being around the 90th percentile for this time of year, some of the storms will be capable of efficient rainfall processes and would expect to see some high instantaneous rainfall rates. The saving grace, will be that storms should be moving generally 10-20 mph which should limit the amount of time any storm spends in one location. For the time being the area remains outlooked with a marginal threat of excessive rainfall/flash flooding, and this seems reasonable based on the storm motions. Will be watching for any signs of multiple storms moving over a given area in quick succession, which would lead to a locally increased threat.

The weak low will be slow to move away from the area as upper level high pressure builds into the middle Mississippi Valley and serves to weaken the steering flow. It will continue to gradually shift westward through the first part of the work week, though the local air mass will remain quite humid with PW values generally in the 1.9-2" range, or around the 75th percentile. With the strongest ridging forecast to remain north of the local area, the combination of deep moisture and daytime heating should result in scattered to numerous showers and storms Monday and Tuesday.

Regarding temperatures, cloud cover and convection should keep afternoon temperatures in check, but with dewpoints forecast in the mid to upper 70s, heat index values could still approach advisory conditions before convection begins firing.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Friday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The second half of the work week brings more of the same as an active weather pattern persists. Multiple weak disturbances look to move toward the area, though there is quite a bit of spread in the exact timing and specific details of each one.

The first disturbance is currently located near southern Florida and may completely dissipate before reaching the local area. However, if it does not, it would arrive some time Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It's also possible this disturbance may be absorbed by a second disturbance following closely on its heels. That one looks to bring another plume of increased moisture to the local area during the Wednesday into Thursday time frame.

And finally, another disturbance (the moisture associated with the remnants of TS Dolly) could be moving into the northeastern Gulf by late Friday, possibly approaching the local area by Saturday.

None of these disturbances currently look to be significant threats as far as tropical development is concerned. But regardless of that, will need to monitor each disturbance and the potential for at least localized heavy rain as the associated deep moisture will continue to allow for efficient rainfall processes in some storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with only low end chances for convective restrictions toward the end of the forecast period. These scattered showers and storms will be associated with a weak area of low pressure moving through the area. The probability of impacts before 18z will be at GPT and ASD where PROB30 or TEMPO groups have been included. Elsewhere, any impacts would likely occur after 18z.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain winds around 5 to 10 knots varying between southerly and westerly through today. Then winds switch to generally southerly to easterly but maintain the same 5-10 kt magnitude starting Sunday into the new week. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will remain possible each day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.