textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 452 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Monitoring possible complex of strong/isolated severe storms approaching from the northwest mainly for the afternoon/evening hours today and possibly again Thursday, with greater focus/confidence for areas east of I-55, including coastal Mississippi and adjacent marine waters. Stay updated!

- Strong heat will be back with heat index readings up to 110F starting Sunday into the new work week with heat advisories possible during that time.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The newest storm complex moving through northern LA this morning should be arriving in our area(Wilkinson County) by 4ish am. Models continue to decay this complex as it moves SE, but there is no strong suppression to its SE since the frontal/quasi-stationary boundary has sunk father south this morning. This could hold together as it moves into the area later this morning giving some areas heavy rain and several rounds of thunder. The complex is moving SE at 25mph so it won't be hanging around. But we do expect it to weaken as it does get into the area. At the moment, thinking is no severe wx with this one, but later today with new development, that will be a possibility. The leading axis of this boundary is along the Red/Miss River systems. So, from along those rivers and north will be the best chances for storms today. When itemizing the severe potential, it comes up damaging winds first, hail second, heavy rainfall third and tornadoes last. Tornadoes are not normally last on any severe wx variable list, but NW flow storms are not normally tornadoe producers, but the saying in the met world is "never say never". And flooding issues would not normally be an issue with these if there weren't the feet or rain that fell over the last several weeks. As we move into Thursday, the frontal axis shifts northward just a bit but not far enough to drop storm chances back to near zero. Friday and Sat will see high pressure settling back over the gulf coast causing the front to shift even farther north bringing precip chances back to 15% or less for our area over the weekend. But this means the heat will be back with us and heat advisories could be back as soon as the latter half of the weekend.

Long spill about heat advisories. We love the comradery and fun our friends and family, and even co-workers have with us about the summer heat advisory and they usually ask rhetorical questions like, "Why heat advisories? It's June/July/August in south Mississippi/Louisiana. It's called summer, and it's supposed to be hot.", I was inquisitively asked this question by a family friend, so I will give the reason for this product since some may not know why it was developed and issued. Heat advisories were not uniquely thought up by meteorologists. Like several products such as air quality advisories and globe temperatures/heat advisories etc... The NWS does not come up with the criteria alone to produce the heat advisory or warning. The criteria was developed with help and coordination with medical professionals telling us at what point the body starts to have issues with heat. This field does change as better techniques are found and one of those is using the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature(WBGT) which uses direct sunlight in its equation instead of shade. Yes, my friend was also stunned that we measure temperature in the shade. I won't go into the reasoning for this but people don't always work, play(sports), fish, etc... in the shade. The heat advisory and warnings are issued to let you and visitors(tourists that may be from a cooler, drier climate) know when temperatures will be in a range the body starts to have problems getting rid of heat...even if you are in the shade.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A very strong 595 decameter 500mb high will be parked directly over the region at the start of the long term period. This strong ridging aloft will both warm and dry the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere enough that a very strong capping inversion will be place. These conditions will persist through Monday night with very low PoP in place each day. The only rain chances that we will have will be if temperatures rise to the convective temperature in the mid 90s and enough low level convergence along pre-existing mesoscale boundaries like the seabreeze is in place to overcome the strong capping inversion. Thus, a token 15 to 20 percent is in the forecast, mainly along the coast and around the periphery of Lake Pontchartrain for very isolated convective development. One issue to note will be if any storms form, they could quickly become severe and produce damaging wind gusts as drier air aloft entrains into the updraft resulting in some evaporative cooling within the updraft itself. Otherwise, the main concern through Monday will highs in the mid 90s combining with dewpoints in the upper 70s to produce an extended period of extreme heat in the region. Heat indices will easily climb to around 110 degrees each day, and heat advisories will be needed for the weekend into early next week.

On Tuesday, the strong 500mb ridge will become more centered over the Mid-Mississppi and Tennessee Valleys. This will place the forecast area within the southern periphery of the ridge, and there are indications that some northern stream energy will rotate around the ridge and into our region as we move into Tuesday afternoon. Increasing vorticity and forcing aloft combined with ample instability and a slightly weaker capping inversion aloft will support more convective development Tuesday afternoon. Model sounding analysis indicates a continued high potential for some locally strong and damaging wind gusts to accompany the deepest updrafts as drier air aloft is easily entrained into these storms. However, the added forcing aloft will help these storms last longer and potentially form into either a MCS or a bow echo as it becomes cold pool dominated. The storms will also move in from the northeast and sweep to the west-southwest through the area based on the prevailing easterly flow in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures will remain very warm with highs climbing back into the mid 90s and heat index values climbing back to around 110 degrees before the storms move in.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 452 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Some MVFR cigs moving over the northern half of the area this morning will move to VFR by mid morning. All other sites will remain most of the day in VFR. There is a high enough chance of TSRA along, north and east of a line from MCB to ASD to show in this taf set for today which could cause some temp IFR. Tonight will show the same areas with low cigs and possibly low vis where rainfall occurs.

MARINE

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Surface high pressure over the central gulf will continue to promote weak, mainly westerly flow today. The high will move east bringing onshore flow back to the coastal waters late Thursday which will remain through the weekend. A series of thunderstorm complexes will surge southeast along a stationary inland front today and Thursday, causing strong erratic winds in and near these storms as they move offshore. Conditions dry out toward the weekend and winds weaken to light and variable as high pressure moves over the north central gulf.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.