textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

- Fog may be possible each night and morning through the week. Commuters and holiday travelers are urged to allow extra time to their destinations.

- The warm up we've talked about is here. Through the week look for daytime highs mostly in the upper 70s and quite possibly reaching the low 80s and overnight lows around 60.

- Next cold front and chance of rain will be due into the region at the end of the period.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

After a foggy and/or rainy start this morning, additional showers are occuring over portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. This is in response to some weak isentropic upglide from a remnant surface front over the tidal lakes this morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible through the afternoon, the surface feature is expected to lift northward as an H5 ridge begins to spread into the region tonight and into Tuesday. With the drier trend taking shape, POPs decrease quite rapidly, however, we do not escape the two primary stories going into the holiday. 1) fog...with low level moisture (especially with wet grounds) and lackluster winds, we'll likely wake to some morning fog Tuesday morning, especially over the Florida Parishes and south MS. This, once it lifts will allow for...2) temperatures to bounce back into the 70s for most...maybe a touch cooler adjacent to the MS Gulf Coast given the cooler sound waters. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Going into the long range, high pressure will be in control at the surface and weak H5 ridging will also be over the region. This should limit POPs and will allow for the warmer pattern to continue through the holiday. Outside of temperatures, we'll still be watching the potential for fog each morning as the low level flow becomes very stagnant. Some combination of both marine/sea fog drifting in overnight along the immediate coast as well as radiational fog inland will be possible. Stat guidance is showing this potential clearly so went ahead and added areas of fog for Wednesday morning and again Christmas morning. We'll take a look at subsequent mornings in later packages, but it wouldn't be surprising for additional fog to be added.

By later this week and into the upcoming weekend, the upper level ridge flattens allowing for a more zonal or progressive flow to develop over the forecast area. This will not do much to the overall weather regime...at least until late Sunday or perhaps at the start of the new workweek. GLobals have been showing our next cold front moving through the region, which gives us our next chance of rainfall after today. However, the latest run of the GFS is drier with much of the upper level trough missing our region to the east. Other globals are quite a bit stronger and further west, so beyond day 6 confidence in the current forecast is rather low for now. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VIS and CIGs are gradually improving across the area this afternoon. Eventually, VFR for most with slight bumps here or there due to isolated -SHRAs. Rain should be well out of the region by around sunset this evening. However, where we do get rain expect more VIS/CIG issues (at least lower reductions) for these terminals along I10 and north. Locally dense fog will be possible for ASD, GPT, HDC, MCB, and perhaps BTR by around 23/10z. Toward the end of the cycle conditions will improve back to VFR as fog and low stratus dissipate. GPT, however, may hang onto low stratus for a good bit of Tuesday morning before breaking out. Expect mostly light easterly winds. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

As we move into the new workweek, a strong dome of high pressure dominates and we see easterly winds at 5-10 kt generally for much of the week. There is also a signal for fog through the week, but for now the highest impact will be Wednesday morning where marine dense fog advisories may be needed. The next front is due into the region early next week. Look for winds to be on the increase very late in the period with this feature. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 56 74 55 75 / 10 0 0 0 BTR 57 77 57 76 / 20 0 0 0 ASD 54 74 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 59 75 59 73 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 56 71 57 71 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 53 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555.