textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

- Heavy rainfall and increased risk of flash flooding may impact parts of the area through early Saturday. - The threat for thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe will continue through early Saturday.

- Cooler than normal high temperatures are expected behind a Strong late season cold front to start May.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday Night) Issued at 150 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Although much of the convection from Thursday evening has dissipated, there remains a few scattered showers, especially across southwest MS and portions of southeast Louisiana that is north of I10 and west of I55. These intermittent showers should continue through the overnight and into the daytime. All this is mainly due to upper level impulses on top of a surface frontal boundary that is locked into the zonal H5 flow across the region. This will provide the focus for more convection especially later today once the low levels recover...if the low levels recover. Depending on exactly where the front is located there could be more isentropic overrunning ascent meaning more stratiform in nature. It appears in both mesoscale and global guidance the front will drift a bit northward, which would allow a decent chunk of the CWFA to be positioned in the warm sector. Convective overturning will be possible so overall severe threat may be slightly limited in response to this, however, there remains the possibility for localized flash flooding across the region as a couple more rounds may develop and move over locations, especially Florida Parishes and southwest MS that have received some beneficial rainfall recently. Orientation of the convective clusters may also coincide with the upper flow meaning backbuilding and training of showers and storms will need to be monitored. So a quick couple of inches over a short period of time could lead to hydro issues. That said, although conditional a strong to severe storm or two will be possible. Mostly a wind and hail threat, however, as we saw with a right moving supercell on Thursday evening along the immediate boundary, a tornado or two wouldn't be impossible where surface boundaries can be ingested into stronger updrafts.

The upper trough upstream finally spreads east later tonight and early Saturday. This will transition the upper flow to a more northwest direction (a dry flow) and kick the front through the region. Breezy conditions are expected behind the front, especially over the southshore. However, the main story is the dry and cooler temperatures that will advect into the region Saturday Night. As much as 10 to 12 degrees or so below early May averages. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Sunday morning, high pressure will extend from Tennessee to Texas under northwesterly mid level flow. As the upper flow over the area becomes more zonal early next week, high pressure will shift eastward and by Tuesday, will extend from north of Bermuda into the eastern Gulf. The south end of a northern stream trough will swing through the Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, aiding the passage of a frontal boundary on Wednesday or Wednesday night. The ECMWF operational solution is quicker than the GFS operational solution with the frontal passage, which impacts rain chances and the temperature forecast beyond about Tuesday. Still some disagreement as to how far off the coast the boundary eventually gets, so precipitation chances will return to the forecast on Wednesday (20-40 percent), and continue into Thursday.

Morning lows Sunday morning will be in the 40s and lower 50s for most of the area with the exception of areas downwind of Lake Pontchartrain, which should see temperatures closer to 60. Not quite as cool Monday morning, then returning to above normal by Wednesday morning. Highs 75 to 80 for Sunday and Monday, warming to at least mid 80s by Wednesday, which looks like the warmest day of the week. (RW)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

IFR/MVFR conditions will largely be in place through much of the day. Convection has decreased, but shower activity will remain possible through the morning hours (used PROBs). More convection is possible from late afternoon through the evening hours and again late tonight as the front passes through the region. Outside of convection low CIGs will continue with intermittent showers. VIS issues will also develop in heavier convection. Northerly winds will be on the increase later in the period with some sites seeing gusts in the 20 to 30 kt range. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 150 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Winds will be variable in direction this morning as a stationary front remains parked over the area. To the north of the front in the tidal lakes and sounds, northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist into the overnight hours. South of the front, southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots will be the rule through the early morning. Later today, a developing low pressure system will move into the area along the front. Winds will increase in response to this low with northeast winds of 15 to 20 knots forming over the tidal lakes and sounds and southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots developing in the open Gulf waters. As the low tracks to the east, it will help drive the front offshore later tonight into Saturday. Strong northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots will develop late tonight and persist through Sunday morning over all of the waters, and a small craft advisory has been issued for these conditions. Winds and seas will quickly fall off to less than 10 knots and 3 feet into the start of the new workweek as a broad area of high pressure settles over the region. As the high shifts to the east on Tuesday, winds will turn southerly at around 10 knots. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.