textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Small Craft Advisories are in place for most of the tidal lakes through Friday evening. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Warnings are in place for offshore waters.

- Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall on the north central Gulf Coast Friday evening. Southeastern LA coastal areas plus inland Jackson County and all of Hancock and Harrison Counties MS are under a Tropical Storm Warning and coastal Jackson County MS is under a Hurricane Warning.

- Much of coastal southeast LA and coastal MS are under Storm Surge Warnings. Some uncertainty remains on the exact track and strength, but potential impacts include gusty winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and dangerous waves/seas on the coastal waters.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hurricane Isaias will be the main concern, with most of the impacts in the first 24 hours of the forecast, primarily over eastern portions of the area. Hurricane, Tropical Storm and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for portions of the area with more specific information in Hurricane Local Statements and TCVLIX.

Rain should move into eastern portions of the area during the morning hours as it spreads northward. Any significant rainfall is likely to remain east of Interstate 59, and it may not even rain west of Interstate 55. The storm will move quickly away from our area on Saturday, with precipitation ending early Saturday morning. Dry weather is expected for the remainder of the weekend into early next week as Isaias pulls drier air into the area behind it. Did consider a Wind Advisory for a small portion of the southshore, but the area of most concern, eastern Orleans Parish is already under a Tropical Storm Warning.

High temperatures may not get out of the mid 70s today across coastal Mississippi, but will get into the lower and middle 80s west of Interstate 55. As cooler air gets pulled into the area, lows by Saturday morning could fall to 60 to 65. Highs Saturday upper 70s and lower 80s. Sunday and Monday will be unseasonably warm, mid 80s to lower 90s, but with low humidity. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s, but won't rule out some upper 50s in the usually cooler locations. If we get into the lower 90s, it could flirt with records in a few locations (not Baton Rouge).

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

On Monday night, upper and surface ridging will be pretty much centered over the area. The ridging will eventually slide eastward to around Atlanta by Thursday. With this pattern, don't see much of an opportunity for precipitation, and most days, may not even see much in the way of clouds. Temperatures will remain well above normal, as much as 10F above normal. Still won't rule out areas reaching 90 degrees on one or more days next week beyond Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions expected through at least midday Friday at all terminals. As Isaias continue to move north toward the coast, MVFR conditions are likely to impact the eastern terminals during the afternoon and overnight Friday (KGPT, KASD, KNEW and KMSY). Winds are likely to also become an issue at the same terminals as northeasterly winds become sustained around 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots or a little higher. LLWS possible at KGPT and KASD by evening. Probably won't see a great deal of improvement in conditions over the eastern terminals until around midday Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Marine conditions will deteriorate as Isaias approaches the coast by evening. No changes in headlines anticipated at this time. Isaias should be well inland by Saturday morning, but it will probably take most of Saturday for conditions to show significant improvement. By Sunday, conditions should be much more favorable for marine operations, and that should continue for much or all of next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ070-076-078-091.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058-077- 084-087-093-095-097-098.

Storm Surge Warning for LAZ070-076-078-091.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ529-531-533.

Hurricane Warning for GMZ532-535-536-554-557-575-577.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ534-541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...Hurricane Warning for MSZ088.

Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ083>087.

Storm Surge Warning for MSZ086>088.

Hurricane Watch for MSZ085.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ531-533.

Hurricane Warning for GMZ535-536-554-557-575-577.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.