textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Rain chances will diminish today as a frontal boundary continues to move southward.

- Winds over the coastal waters are expected increase beginning early Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed over portions of the coastal waters beginning Tuesday, with headlines necessary for much of the week.

- The increased winds over the coastal waters may increase the threat for coastal flooding by midweek as well.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

An upper ridge was centered near the Four Corners area during the evening, with troughing along the northern Gulf Coast. Shortwaves within that trough were over southwest Georgia, coastal Louisiana and north central Texas. A frontal boundary was near Interstate 10. Precipitation over land has diminished considerably since sunset, and the Flood Watch was allowed to expire at midnight. The airmass remained rather moist during the evening with precipitable water values in the 2.3 to 2.5 range, at the top of the chart for early October.

The first 36 hours of the forecast is fairly straight forward with the frontal boundary moving offshore into the Gulf, with drying from the north. Likely to still be some showers and potentially a few thunderstorms during the day today, but the heavy rain threat will be diminished with precipitable water values falling below 2 inches by evening. Probably won't see much sunshine before Tuesday, but won't see as much rain, either. Highs today and Tuesday should be in the 80s.

Uncertainty begins to creep into the forecast beyond Tuesday. A disturbance is expected to develop in the southwest Gulf around Tuesday. The question is whether this disturbance interacts with a trough over Texas. Solutions such as the GFS have been advertising the Texas trough picking up the disturbance and carrying it northeast toward the north central Gulf Coast next weekend. On the other hand, some of the ECMWF solutions have depicted the Texas trough missing the disturbance, with the disturbance remaining in the southwest Gulf. While both scenarios are fairly dry locally for Wednesday and Thursday, the surface pressure gradients would be considerably different with wind direction and speeds having an impact on the temperature forecast. Will accept the NBM temperatures for those 2 days, but there could be shifts in the temperature forecast as the actual scenario becomes more apparent.

Depending on the wind direction, minor coastal flooding could become an issue again at midweek. Hopefully, this becomes a little more clear in the next day or two.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

On Thursday evening, there will be troughing over Texas, extending into the northern Gulf. That's pretty much in agreement between the GFS and ECMWF families. The main question for the long term period is how this trough interacts with the disturbance over the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche. The operational GFS for the last several runs has developed organized low pressure with this feature. The trough picks up this feature and pushes it quickly northeastward through our coastal waters toward Mobile next weekend. NHC currently carrying a 50 percent chance of tropical development through 7 days with this feature. The ECMWF solution has been showing the Texas trough doesn't pick up the feature, keeping it in the southwest Gulf next weekend. Most of the other international models and recent sets of NBM guidance have tended toward a GFS based solution, especially looking at the wind fields. I'd note that a system moving as quickly as the GFS depiction frequently ends up with a rather lopsided precipitation shield, with most precipitation to the right of the track and very little to the left. Considering that the low pressure has not developed yet, and could be several days away from developing, now is not the time to focus on specifics. There are even a few solutions quicker than the GFS in developing the system. Just to monitor the system.

Considering the disagreement between GFS and ECMWF families, there's some variance in both temperatures and precipitation chances, even as early as Thursday into Friday. This will lend itself to the potential for shifts in the forecast next weekend depending on how the 2 systems interact (or don't). Will let the NBM numbers ride, but understand that the forecast confidence, for now, is lower than we'd like.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Only a very limited amount of precipitation remaining around the local forecast terminals. However, there is quite a range of flight conditions at present, ranging from VFR to IFR or lower ceilings. The expectation is that IFR or lower ceilings will be prevalent prior to sunrise. Cloud bases should lift into the MVFR range between 15z-17z. Could see improvement to VFR during the afternoon at a few terminals, but the expectation is that the improvement is more likely to occur near or after sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A tightening pressure gradient over the coastal waters will form in response to a developing low pressure system in the southwestern Gulf over the next few days. Winds will turn northeasterly behind the front and increase back to 15 to 20 knots as drier air advects over the warm waters with Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories likely to be necessary on Tuesday. Seas will also increase to 5 to 7 feet by Wednesday. Depending on how the southwest Gulf disturbance develops, there's potential for conditions to deteriorate considerably beyond Wednesday, especially over the open waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.