textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

- Below normal temps expected through the remainder of the week.

- Another significant Arctic outbreak is increasingly likely late Friday into Saturday. A strong cold front will usher in another very cold airmass, with the primary threats being dangerous cold and renewed hazardous conditions across the coastal waters.

- Small Craft Advisory to possibly Gale force winds look to be on the horizon the entire weekend, starting as early as Friday night.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Broad upper-level troughing has generally encompassed most/all of the CONUS for a week or so now. It's expected to persist across much of the country through the upcoming weekend which will maintain a pattern supportive of periodic frontal passages across the Gulf South. Several shortwave troughs will rotate through the base of the parent trough, with the first affecting the region today. This feature is weak and low-amplitude, and little sensible weather impact is anticipated locally beyond maintaining dry pattern in place.

As that feature continues east Thursday, gradual warming trend resumes due to increasing 500mb heights. Keep in mind that 'warm' is a relative term...comparing to last weekend. Lows/Highs will still be several degrees below normal even at its warming point.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Attention then turns to a much stronger system late in the week into the upcoming weekend. Deterministic guidance from both the GFS and ECMWF, along with strong ensemble support, continues to show a high- confidence signal for a polar vortmax diving southward from Ontario into the southeastern US. This trajectory favors direct southward transport of a very cold continental polar airmass down to the northern Gulf Coast region. Surface ridging originating from this far north and remaining west of the CWA at its southern extent is strongly correlated with significant cold analogs locally.

So how cold will it be? Initial thoughts are that temperatures will be similar to possibly even colder than the recent cold spell. This would likely include at least one day (Saturday) with highs struggling to rise much above freezing, along with several nights of subfreezing temperatures and potentially one or two nights with lows in the upper teens to near 20 degrees. Some guidance is much colder than that btw. No threat for wintry precip as moisture appears limited and the cold air arrives largely post-frontal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions expected through the cycle with only light and variable winds. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1041 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Substantial drop in winds occurred today as surface ridge settled in across the northern Gulf Coast. A weak shortwave will slide through early this morning which brings a reinforcing boundary into the Gulf waters. It'll likely too weak to support any headlines but will maintain offshore flow. A short period of onshore flow could develop Thursday as surface ridge from the weaker front slides east. Bigger impacts return over the weekend as a potentially next arctic blast marches through. Current guidance suggests at least Small Craft Advisory conditions and maybe a period of Gales as well.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ056>060- 064>068-077-087>090.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Thursday for LAZ056>060-065.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.