textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 - Another shot of colder air will follow the passage of a strong cold front Sunday night. The coldest air won't arrive until Monday with the coldest night being Monday night/Tuesday morning.

- About an 18 hour period of hazardous marine conditions behind the cold front late Sunday night through Monday afternoon before conditions improve.

- Temperatures warming to well above normal for Wednesday and Thursday before much colder weather arrives next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 528 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

An update to the fcast once more to add fog wording to the daylight hours. This is an uncommon occurrance as visibility should actually lower after sunrise today instead of before or right at sunrise which is the most common way it happens. This is due to being in between a warm frontal zone and a cold front moving toward our area. This should cause the rain shield at the coast to move a bit more offshore, but not far which will aid in helping fog form. Vis should not be in advisory criteria but can get to around 1/2 mile in a few locations with mainly 1 to 3 mile vis common. A few location near the coast could even flirt with 1/4 mile but this shouldn't remain long. There is the possibility that a dense fog advisory gets issued for marine areas near shore after daylight today, this is only due to the criteria being higher(1nm or less) than inland(1/4 mile or less) criteria. So far, vis is better than a mile over marine locations. This can be seen in the Miss River. Basically, if the river gets dense fog, then most marine areas will have it as well since the conditions and SSTs are the same as the river. Marine obs such as platforms can be used for flight ops but not for marine sfc travel since the observations will be at around 200ft which is where the strat deck is hanging at, so one would expect the platforms over the gulf to show dense fog later this morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A broad upper trough covered much of the eastern two thirds of the country this evening, with ridging along the Pacific Coast. Quasi- zonal flow was noted along the northern Gulf Coast ahead of a shortwave near the Texas Big Bend area. At the surface, high pressure extended from Kentucky to Georgia. Frontal boundaries were well to the south over the central Gulf, and well to the north near Interstate 70. Patchy light rain was noted over the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes. Low clouds were covering much of the area with temperatures mainly in the lower and middle 50s with light easterly winds.

The southern stream shortwave over the Big Bend area will shift eastward and be moving off the Georgia coast Sunday evening. A strong northern stream shortwave will dig into the base of the trough over the Appalachians by Monday. Low pressure associated with the southern stream shortwave may briefly turn winds southeasterly during the day Sunday, allowing temperatures to warm to near 70 Sunday afternoon. As the shortwave and low pass east of the area Sunday night, winds will shift to the north and much cooler and drier air will arrive late Sunday night and Monday. Scattered showers and perhaps a few storms could accompany the front. Likely to see some sunshine by Monday afternoon, but gusty northerly winds will make it feel cooler than it looks.

Temperatures aren't likely to move much prior to sunrise Sunday. Temperature solutions for the most part are pretty close to the ECMWF guidance through Monday. Won't entirely rule out a freeze across northern areas early Tuesday morning, but not specifically forecasting it at this point.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

With the longwave trough axis to our east for the middle of the week, the upper flow will be northwesterly, which should keep the area dry through at least Thursday. If there is going to be any precipitation during this portion of the forecast, it will probably be Thursday night and/or Friday morning as a northern stream shortwave passes well to the northeast of the area, dragging a cold front across us.

Tuesday will be chilly until the surface high axis passes to the east of the area. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warm days for the week, approaching 70 Wednesday and well into the 70s on Thursday. Colder air will arrive again on Friday, with high temperatures Saturday and Sunday of next weekend likely not getting out of the 50s, if that warm, with a freeze possible late Saturday night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Conditions will not improve through this taf cycle. Cigs will remain in IFR to LIFR ranges today and tonight. Vis will range from MVFR to IFR but several sites should hit LIFR as well today and tonight. This vis situation is a bit different in that the highest vis will be now and lower after daylight today. Vis should improve as noon approaches then fall again overnight back to IFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Likely to need Small Craft Advisories across most or all waters from 06z Monday to 06z Tuesday due to cold air advection behind the cold front. Conditions should improve during the day Tuesday, with no further wind related issues until perhaps Friday afternoon behind the next cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 65 45 54 33 / 50 60 0 0 BTR 70 47 57 35 / 60 60 0 0 ASD 68 47 59 34 / 40 70 0 0 MSY 70 51 60 43 / 50 60 0 0 GPT 67 49 60 37 / 40 70 0 0 PQL 68 47 60 34 / 30 70 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.