textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Fog potential returns Saturday morning.

- Another cold front will bring additional chances for rain Monday night through Wednesday afternoon.

- Behind the cold front, beginning Wednesday, temperatures begin dropping to more seasonable levels with nighttime lows in the 40s.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The main threat in the short term will be the chance for widespread dense fog early Saturday. Probabilities across several models are rather high, leading to the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire area. Once the fog burns off later Saturday morning most of the day should remain rather uneventful. There is a slight chance for some light showers, mainly for western areas, in the afternoon hours as the weak frontal boundary pushes through and stalls near the coast. Temperatures remain unseasonably warm Saturday with highs in the low to mid 80s for most areas.

High pressure will set up to our north, making for a quiet Sunday. The front from Saturday evening does bring more pleasant high temperatures Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 70s forecast. Early morning lows will also be a touch cooler, in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The majority of Monday will be much of the same as Sunday with the high pressure still lingering north of us. However, a deepening trough in the western U.S will push this high pressure eastward and attempt to break our pattern. While the trough will slide up towards the Midwest, the low pressure at the surface moving through the Central Plains will have a cold front along with it that will push into our area late Monday. This gradually increases PoPs, which peak Tuesday afternoon. with the highest PoPs in the northern half of the CWA. Rain may linger into Wednesday, but looks to clear out and leave us with a dry Thanksgiving Day.

In terms of Temperatures, Monday and Tuesday's highs will once again be a good 10 degrees above the climate normals for this time of year. By Wednesday, the front will be pushing through which cools the high temperatures into the low to id 70s. Thanksgiving Day will have even cooler temperatures with the front fully through the area, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Early morning lows Thanksgiving morning will be fairly cool in the mid 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Prevailing VFR at most terminals tonight, but we are starting to see some already having low vis issues. Heading into the early through mid morning Saturday dense fog probabilities are high for most of the area. With this dense fog expect IFR to LIFR ceilings and vis at most terminals by early morning. Fog should burn off a couple hours after sunrise and conditions return to VFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1013 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Winds will calm over the weekend to less than 10 knots as a high pressure system over the eastern Gulf becomes more dominant over the waters. However, another system will once again push winds and seas higher on Monday and Tuesday. Southerly flow should increase back into the 15 to 20 knot range over this period. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will also develop over the waters as this next storm system moves through. After the frontal passage late Wednesday , winds will increase out of the north up around 15-20kts once again. There is a chance of dense fog over some areas Saturday morning and subsequently a dense fog advisory was issued for the lakes, sounds, and eastern near waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 64 78 51 73 / 10 10 0 0 BTR 67 81 54 76 / 10 20 0 0 ASD 63 81 55 76 / 10 10 0 0 MSY 67 82 61 77 / 0 20 0 0 GPT 64 80 58 76 / 10 10 0 0 PQL 62 81 55 77 / 10 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-557.