textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

- Turning slightly cooler Friday and Friday night, but not anticipating overnight freezing temperatures following this front with a quick warm up expected into the upcoming weekend back into the 70's.

- Next chance of rain is Sunday, with PoPs in the 30-50% range. Intensity will be light, however, with amounts totaling less than 0.25 inch.

- Christmas Day is seven days out, on the horizon of our forecasting. Right now, though, it is looking warm and dry with a reasonable forecast of high temps in the mid to upper 70s. At this point, if Santa is checking our forecast, I'm advising you wear a hawaiian shirt and flip flops for your Christmas Eve visit to our area. ;)

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

One more morning of cold temperatures before we warm up for the rest of the week thanks to the return of onshore flow. Conditions will be dry Saturday with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s for most of the region. We rapidly warm up during the day on Saturday as southerly flow resumes, advecting warmer air, with highs in the low 70s across the area. No rain is expected Saturday either. MSW

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Zonal flow dominates the upper level pattern for Sunday. Warm air continues to be advected into the region thanks to onshore flow. Rain chances will be enhanced during the daytime with 30-50% PoPs in the forecast. Mostly this will present as light to moderate scattered showers. Looking at the models, not expecting concerns for severe weather or flash flooding with these storms. Generally, rain totals will be on the lower side (less than 0.5 inches for most locations).

High pressure begins to build in over the area after Sunday through next week. Conditions will be mostly dry for the entire week, looking at the latest models. Temperatures will be quite mild to warm as well thanks to the high pressure and onshore flow. Lows will be in the mid 50s with highs in the low to mid 70s daily Sunday through Friday. The forecast for Santa for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be dry, but with humid conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. So, would not rule out needing shorts and tshirts for your Christmas and holiday celebrations. But the good news there is that we are not expecting rain! MSW

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

High pressure spreads into the region this weekend allowing for more favorable marine conditions to take shape on Saturday before more moderate winds and seas develop early next week. MSW

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 38 70 56 70 / 0 0 20 60 BTR 41 74 59 75 / 0 0 10 60 ASD 39 71 54 72 / 0 0 10 30 MSY 48 73 59 73 / 0 0 10 40 GPT 43 68 55 69 / 0 0 0 30 PQL 38 69 52 71 / 0 0 0 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.