textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Outside of a few isolated showers mainly across coastal southeastern Louisiana, quiet weather with warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the beginning of next week.

- During the latter part of next week, a period of more active weather appears likely. While there is still significant uncertainty regarding the specifics, heavy rain could become a concern mainly Friday and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

High pressure will dominate the area's weather through Saturday keeping rain chances quite low with the exception of a isolated coastal showers today. Even as the high retrogrades westward going into the second half of the weekend and Monday, rain chances will be hard to come by owing to slow moisture recovery. Model forecast soundings indicate precipitable water will remain below normal for this time of year through at least Saturday, recovering to near normal (around 1.5 inches) for Sunday and Monday.

The drier air will allow overnight lows to cool to near normal the next day or two, but afternoon highs will remain above normal, continuing to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Going into middle of the week, the pattern will begin to shift as an upper low digs into the southwestern CONUS and pulls whatever remains of Hurricane Polo northeastward. This low will force a cold front toward the area by late Wednesday/Thursday. At the same time, a separate system will move northwestward out of the Caribbean toward the central Gulf bringing a plume of deep tropical moisture along with it.

By Thursday it looks like a fast-moving northern stream trough will pick up the first upper low, causing it to lift further northeastward. This, in turn, will cause the associated surface cold front to elongate and slow down its forward progression as flow become more parallel to the boundary.

While there is still significant uncertainty in exactly where this front will stall, the likelihood of the front stalling before it reaches the local area appears to be on the rise. In fact both the GFS and Euro ensemble means are currently in agreement that the front will stall more in the vicinity of the arklatex, which would keep the heaviest rain associated with the front northwest of the local area through Thursday.

Looking just beyond the current forecast period, though, that formerly mentioned easterly wave and deep tropical moisture plume look to move into the area during the Friday/Saturday time frame. It's too soon to have any confidence in specific rainfall forecasts, but it does look like a continued trend toward at least a low-end heavy rain threat that should be monitored as the details become clearer.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions will remain in place at all of the terminals through the entire forecast period. A scattered cloud deck ranging between 4000 and 7000 feet will be in place, but this will not cause any operational concerns for the terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Easterly winds 15-20 knots with some occasional higher gusts will continue through this evening. Overnight, the pressure gradient will relax and allow winds to ease back below 15 kts by around midnight across most of the waters, though winds may stay elevated a bit beyond midnight in western waters. Transient high pressure will keep conditions generally benign Saturday through at least Tuesday. By Wednesday onshore winds will begin to strengthen again as a cold front approaches the lower mississippi valley.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.