textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

- Heavy rainfall and severe weather threats will diminish this morning. - Strong winds will produce hazardous boating conditions over the waters this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

- Next potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall will be with a frontal passage around Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Southern stream shortwave trough entering western Louisiana at midnight, with northern stream shortwave over Iowa. Another shortwave to the west over the Four Corners area. The surface front is now over our outer coastal waters. Still some elevated strong convection over lower portions of our southeast Louisiana coastal parishes, and even a few lightning strikes near Interstate 10. Midnight CDT temperatures were generally in the 50s, which was cooler than expected, and helped push the front further southward.

Troughing will continue to move across the area today, with rain ending around sunrise. Likely to take most or all morning to get rid of clouds, but we should see some sunshine during the afternoon, with temperatures recovering into the 70s in most areas. Winds are expected to decouple tonight, except for areas just south of Lake Pontchartrain. Temperatures are likely to drop off pretty quickly after sunset as dew points will be falling into the 40s and skies will be clear. Sunday is expected to be a full sunshine day, and with dry air in place and fairly light winds, the diurnal temperature range will be close to 30 degrees in many locations with highs in the upper 70s. Another clear and cool night Sunday night, with slightly warmer high temperatures on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

High pressure will extend from near Bermuda across much of the northern Gulf Coast Monday evening. An upper ridge will be over southern Mexico at that time, with an upper trough over southern California. The upper trough will move eastward into the Four Corners region by Wednesday, shifting the upper ridge eastward into the Gulf. A northern stream shortwave will drop into the trough on Wednesday, ejecting the southern impulse northeastward through the middle Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley. By Friday the trough will be over New England and eastern Canada. As the shortwave moves northeastward, low pressure will develop along the associated frontal boundary, with the front expected to move through the local area Wednesday night.

The early week airmass will be rather dry, with precipitable water values around the 25th percentile. As flow becomes onshore on Tuesday, moisture levels will begin to increase with precipitable water values near 1.5 inches by midday Wednesday, around the 75th percentile. GFS forecast soundings show precipitable water values as high as 1.8 to 2 inches overnight Wednesday night. There will be sufficient instability and shear to at least entertain the idea of severe weather and/or heavy rain with the frontal passage. Main window for precipitation likely to be Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, and not quite sure why NBM numbers hold onto precipitation chances into Friday when the operational runs of the medium range models show high pressure over the area.

Morning lows Tuesday morning will be a bit below normal, but nothing uncomfortable for early May. Once the airmass moistens up, overnight lows will be in the 60s and maybe even lower 70s for Wednesday and Thursday mornings, before cooling back to near normal Friday morning. Highs should mainly be in the 80s, although northern sections may not get out of the 70s Thursday, if skies don't clear quick enough. The warmest day is likely to be Wednesday, with the GFS guidance indicating a few locations could warm to the upper 80s to around 90.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Shower activity is quickly coming to an end this morning. After a couple of hours conditions will improve from IFR/MVFR to VFR this afternoon through the remainder of the cycle. Gusty northerly or northeasterly winds will continue through today before decreasing later tonight. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Frontal boundary reached the outer coastal waters during the evening, and cold advection has brought sustained 20 to 30 knot winds over most of the open waters. Winds should relax a bit during the day on Saturday, but not enough to entertain the idea of dropping the Small Craft Advisory. High pressure should be close enough to the area by Sunday morning to allow the advisory to expire at that time. Conditions should improve for marine operations during the day on Sunday, with more benign conditions in place until approximately Tuesday night. Pressure gradient will tighten with winds increasing to around 15 knots Tuesday evening. Will probably need either Small Craft Advisories or Exercise Caution headlines by that point, which could continue for a good portion of the balance of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ529-531>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ531>536-541- 543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.