textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- Expect temperatures to increase again by mid to late week.

- Some potential for fog development Wednesday morning due to clear skies, light winds and very wet ground.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Upper level flow has become a more dry northwesterly, which has helped dry out portions of the mid and upper levels this afternoon. There remains a few lower clouds, especially closer to the surface front that moved through early today over on the MS Gulf Coast. These too shall clear shortly. The upper level low that moved across south MS early his morning has pushed east over Alabama and western Florida this afternoon. Still close proximity for an isolated shower or two closer to this feature over southeast MS, but any rainfall will be the exception rather than the rule at this juncture.

Going into tonight the main focus will be wet grounds, clear skies, and calm winds. This will promote a radiational fog signal for much of the region. Went ahead and added patchy fog areas wide, but the best potential for more dense fog will reside over the Florida Parishes and southwest MS. This will quickly lift Wednesday mid to late morning or so.

Going into Wednesday and Thursday, not much of a change in the overall pattern outside of increasing heights and thicknesses as the ridge upstream over central Texas tries to spread eastward toward our region. This will promote a warming trend. At the surface, winds remain light and variable as high pressure remains over the region. This feature, however, will begin to spread east over Florida and the eastern Gulf by late in the weekend and early weekend. This will induce an onshore flow (a moderate onshore flow) leading to an increase in low level moisture. This will also likely hold temps down a degree or two closer to the water, but temperatures will remain higher over the interior. Additionally, as the moderate onshore flow starts there could be a rogue streamer shower or two by this weekend as well...although rain chances will be on the lower-end for now. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Monday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Long term will start with a slight upper level pattern change as H5 flow becomes more zonal. At the surface, we will continue to see moderate onshore flow leading to continued streamer shower activity, especially west of the I55 corridor at this point. Very light, but mentionable POPs are required. Going into early next week, it appears to be a bit on the drier side in part due to upper level ridging (weak, but still some subsidence), so any isolated shower activity to start the new workweek will low topped shower activity. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Becoming VFR this afternoon for all sites. Then overnight there is a signal for fog with HUM and MCB showing the best potential for MVFR or lower VIS/CIG. This should rapidly improve by mid to late morning on Wednesday. Otherwise, surface winds will remain northerly and rather light at or less than 10 knots. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Winds have become offshore around 15 knots this morning as a front continues to progress away from the region. Wind speeds will subside somewhat by late tonight, but may maintain an offshore component through Thursday before becoming moderate and onshore again as high pressure moves east of the area. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.