textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Hot conditions will continue with heat index readings up to 107F this weekend and into the new workweek with heat advisories possibly being issued Tuesday for some or all of the area.

- Ongoing minor river flooding continues to impact parts of the Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins.

- Potential for heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms returns toward the middle of next week as an easterly waves moves over the region.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A few very low topped streamer showers have developed in the lowest levels within the moisture rich low level flow. Most of this activity has been offshore, but at times the showers have migrated onshore over portions of SE LA and MS Gulf Coast. This activity will be the exception rather than the rule out there today, although with some isolated showers and a bit more cloudiness, we are continuing to monitor temps and "feels like" temps especially where the Heat Advisory is currently in effect. This will go by 7pm tonight (or earlier if needed), but going into tomorrow it appears "feels like" temperatures will be a bit lower around the lakes. Opted out of expanding the advisory through Monday at this juncture, again with some intermittent lower clouds etc.

By Tuesday, ahead of the easterly wave that will be discussed more so in the long term, temperatures will increase quite a bit with likely Heat Advisories for most if not all of the CWFA. Aloft, the growing stronger H5 heat bubble will move northward and will settle of the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Close enough and strong enough to keep our region well above climo and with a higher RH, expect probably one of the hottest days of the summer yet to round out the short term. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

As mentioned the easterly wave makes an appearance across the region by late Tuesday or early Wednesday, increasing the the chances of diurnally driven POPs (land during peak heating and over the water night and morning). PWATs are in the ballpark of 1.7-2.0", so heavy rainfall rates would be possible in the strongest activity. Also, a severe wind gust or two wouldn't be impossible. This feature by Thursday continues downstream over the ArkLaTex, which will help bring down our POPs slightly, but being well established in the rich low level flow and a continued less interaction with the strong ridge over the Ohio Valley, there will still likely be some sea breeze/mesoscale boundary convection during peak heating for most of the region. With the increase in POPs, temperatures come down to around CLIMO for much of the long term period.

Going into the Holiday Weekend the GFS is highlighting another inverted H5 impulse within the easterly flow under the continued scorching ridge over the Tennessee/Sequatchie River Valleys. This if, indeed, comes to fruition it looks like Friday and perhaps Saturday would be on the wet side across the CWFA. The ECM isn't nearly as dramatic with this feature in the upper levels, but still has a decent QPF signal in response to likely a continuation of activity that is typical this time of year...so POPs stayed around CLIMO for the last half of the long term as did temps. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing at all terminals after a brief period of TSRA impacts to coastal areas and MSY/NEW this afternoon. Drier conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period. However, a stray storm or two cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of MSY/NEW again on Sunday between 2100-0000 UTC. Introduction of a PROB30 group is possible in future forecast updates if confidence of impacts increases. Light southwest winds will continue with exception to daytime lake/seabreeze effects.

MARINE

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Mostly favorable marine conditions through the weekend with generally light southerly onshore flow expected. Rain chances are also on the lower end due to high pressure building into the region. This high will move north of the local waters early next week and be replaced with an easterly wave that is expected to move over the local waters on Wednesday and Thursday. With this wave expect an uptick in convection with higher rain chances, mostly during the overnight and morning hours. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around convection along with frequent lightning. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ057-058-076>078- 080-082-084-086-087-098>100.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.