textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Elevated fire danger will remain in place through the weekend. The current and worsening drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity will lead to potential for rapid fire growth. Winds will strengthen a bit over the weekend leading to increasing concern. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Strengthening winds across the coastal waters will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft through the weekend across all open Gulf waters of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, as well the sounds and lakes east of the Mississippi River.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Upper ridge extends from east Texas to the Great Lakes, with troughs over Florida and near Las Vegas. At the surface, high pressure centered over New England extended southwest to the northern Gulf Coast. Clear skies across the area at midnight with temperatures in the 60s along the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, and mainly in the 50s elsewhere.

The upper ridge is going to shift only slightly eastward over the next few days, being centered south of Mobile on Tuesday. Surface high pressure will continue to control the weather across the eastern half of the country through Tuesday with northeast to east winds continuing. The surface pressure gradient will tighten a little over the next day or two, providing for somewhat stronger easterly winds, especially south of Interstate 10. For fire weather concerns, see that section of the discussion below. GFS soundings and precipitable water forecasts indicate that moisture levels should remain near or below the 25th percentile for late October (0.80 inches) through Tuesday and beyond. Other than possibly some cirrus clouds and a few cumulus clouds at times, expect abundant sunshine, warm daytime temperatures and cool nights through Tuesday. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s are about 5 degrees above normal, and overnight lows in the 50s for most areas are just above normal.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Not a lot to say that hasn't already been said over the last several days. Dry high pressure will continue to dominate the area's weather through the work week. Even as the ridge axis meanders a bit in response to northern stream impulses riding up and over the ridge, it keeps a pretty strong hold on the southeast CONUS. Deep southerly flow will bring moisture into Texas and western portions of Louisiana, but the location of the surface high keeps our local flow more easterly than southerly.

With the persistent dry conditions, expect to see continued large diurnal temperature ranges with lows falling into upper 40s to mid 50s across northern areas and upper 50s to lower 60s in southern areas. Afternoon highs will generally warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s most places daily.

Next rain chance looks to be beyond the current forecast period, but could come next weekend or during the first part of the following week as another cold front moves into and through the area. Time will tell whether there is sufficient moisture return ahead of this front to result in wetting rains.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR conditions to continue through the forecast period with high pressure remaining in place. Do not expect winds to get much above 10 knots during the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A strong surface high will become centered over the northeastern United States today and then the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will begin to deepen over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds picking up across the open Gulf waters. Winds will become sustained near 20 knots with frequent higher gusts and a Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters will expand to all waters except for lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador by late this morning. These headlines will likely remain up through the weekend and possibly into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Dry conditions are going to persist through the weekend as high pressure remains over the region. Minimum RH values will fall to between 20 and 30 percent for all areas north of I-10 this afternoon. There should be some slight recovery on Sunday with the minimum values between 30 and 40 percent. 20 foot winds are expected to remain near or below 10 mph today and Sunday north of Interstate 10, and 10 to 15 mph over southeast Louisiana south of Interstate 10. The worsening drought conditions and low fuel moisture content will keep wild fire spread potential on the higher side. A Fire Danger Statement remains out due to this higher fire potential even as conditions remain below red flag warning criteria. As we move into early next week, increasing humidity values will help to limit fire potential even though conditions remain dry.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ551-553-554- 570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ553-554-570- 572-575-577.