textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through this afternoon. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals.

- A good chance of measurable rainfall will occur along and ahead of a cold frontal boundary late today into Sunday.

- Small craft advisories have been posted for late Saturday night through Monday night for northerly winds around 25kt.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Upstream the cold front and parent trough are still on track to move through the area later this evening through the overnight. Guidance is still showing a good chance at some measurable rainfall across the CWFA, but by in large the higher values will be along and west of the I55 corridor where there could also be a few rumbles of elevated thunder embedded within the shower activity. The front moves through and rainfall dissipates from west to east with the front and all precip out of the region by 15z Sunday. Clouds will be decreasing in time, but winds especially over the southshore will increase to 20-25kt perhaps higher at times. Considered a wind advisory for the southshore, but the borderline nature of the gusts suggests we'll let subsequent shifts take another look.

Going into Monday and Tuesday a high pressure at the surface will build into the region from the north. This will keep winds somewhat moderate to start the new workweek especially again closer to the coast. Very modest H5 ridging develops Tuesday over the area...this along with surface flow starting to transition to a more onshore flow will suggest a gradual warming trend by the end of the short term period. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through Friday night) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Going into the long term period, models are still struggling a bit to agree. GFS is a tad wetter with an H5 shortwave moving over the region (although convective feedback issues have been noticed at times here). The ECM shows a QPF signal west of our region along an old front and within a deep moisture rich return flow. At this juncture followed NBM and only keep slights for the far southwest tier parishes late Tuesday and into Wednesday.

The main story going into mid to late week will be the continued largely dry forecast as well as more of a warming trend with temperatures warming back into the 80s toward the end of the period. Guidance has our next front just shy of making it before the current forecast end time...however, we can give the spoiler, if you will that the front looks to move through Saturday morning sometime at this point and will likely be our next chance for rain. This is a slightly better signal for higher rainfall amounts potentially...especially if the front can meet up and stall under the nearly zonal mid-level flow aloft. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Clouds will be on the increase with likely MVFR/IFR CIGs as rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms develop and move into the region. The best chances of thunder will be west of the I55 corridor. Otherwise, winds will quickly shift to a more northerly and eventually northeasterly direction with time and become quite gusty. LLWS is also possible for BTR and MCB late tonight and early Sunday. Clouds will begin to decrease quickly Sunday which will allow any reductions to resolve, however, winds will still be gusty 20-30 knots with the stronger winds closer to the coast or tidal lakes. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

High pressure from the gulf into the Atlantic will continue to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the local waters this afternoon. A cold front is expected to move through the region bringing northerly winds around 25kt Sunday into early next week. Small Craft Advisories have been posted for these conditions. Northeast winds will shift to east into Tuesday but remain elevated. Wednesday, winds will shift to a more SE direction and ease a bit to around 10-15 kt, possibly remaining that way for the remainder of the week. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for GMZ529-531>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ541-543-551-553-554-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ570-572-575.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for GMZ531>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ543-551-553-554-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ572-575.