textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area through Saturday. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

- Frost will be possible in some northern areas Saturday and Sunday mornings.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected off and on through midweek next week. Gusts up to gale force will be possible early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1212 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Dry northwest flow aloft is keeping most of the region mostly sunny this afternoon. Despite lower heights and thicknesses we have managed to warm into the mid and upper 60s, which is a few degrees below average for this time of year. Relative humidity values have dropped to around or below 30 percent along and north of the I10/12 corridor leading to a continuation of elevated fire weather concerns. Winds, however, are a bit lackluster, but not far from critical concerns, especially considering antecedent conditions.

Tonight will be the coolest night of the season. The southshore will remain the warmer spots because of influence of the lake...outside of perhaps the west bank, which tends to be slightly lower than surrounding areas. Otherwise, the northshore will be the coolest with most locations dropping to around 35 to 40 degrees respectively. These numbers are a bit lower confidence due to some thin higher clouds overnight, which could limit cooling. That said, the lack of clouds could lead to a bit lower temperatures, especially across our drainage areas. Either/or some areas of frost will be possible, especially the MS Gulf Coast where RH values will be above 80 percent by early morning with favorable temperatures.

On Saturday the upper level flow breaks down and becomes more zonal leading to slightly warmer afternoon highs by Sunday. Overnight Saturday will be a couple of degrees warmer than Saturday morning, so frost may be possible again across the interior portions of the MS Gulf Coast Counties. A weaker front will move through with a slight cool down early next week behind a rather sharp surface trough over the Gulf late Sunday and into Monday. The Globals are starting to agree...or at least try to agree that there is some potential for rainfall Sunday night and Monday. Amounts continue to look rather light, so no drought buster, but anything is better than nothing. The best potential will be along and south of the I10/12 corridor with lighter amounts and lower chances residing over portions of southwest Mississippi. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1212 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

The primary forecast for the extended period will be the evolution of the shortwave thats currently approaching the Baja of California. As this disturbance moves east across the Desert Southwest to Texas and toward the northern Gulf Coast late Sunday into Monday, it will begin to erode the amplified ridge extending across the central CONUS. Increasing upper level forcing and a developing surface low over the Gulf will bring the next opportunity for precipitation to the region. Rain chances should begin increasing late Sunday night, initially across wester portions of the CWA, before expanding farther east early Monday as the disturbance approaches. At this time, generally 30 to 60 percent PoPs appear reasonable for Monday, with the greatest POPs over areas closer to the coast and the eventual track of the surface low. The cool and relatively stable airmass remaining across the region should limit surface-based instability, suggesting primarily showers rather than organized convection. Confidence in precipitation coverage and timing remains limited given continued uncertainty regarding the strength and track of the shortwave and associated surface low. A more southerly track would keep the better forcing and moisture convergence over the Gulf, resulting in considerably less precipitation inland. Conversely, a track closer to the coast could increase rain coverage across the CWA. For now, the forecast indicates a relatively modest precipitation event with the greatest rain chances during Monday, rather than a widespread heavy rainfall event. Temperatures Monday should remain slightly below normal, with afternoon highs generally on the cooler side overcast skies and showers around. As the shortwave progresses east and drier air returns, rain chances should diminish Monday night, with dry conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

The broader upper level pattern should gradually become less amplified through the remainder of the week, allowing temperatures to slowly moderate. Highs should recover from the 60s Tuesday into the lower and potentially middle 70s by Thursday, with overnight temperatures also trending upward. This would bring temperatures from slightly below normal early in the week to near or slightly above normal by the end of the forecast period. (MEFFER)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1212 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Moderate northerly winds of 15 to 20 knots will be in place across the waters today, so Cautionary Headlines are out through 6 pm on Saturday. As high pressure builds into the area behind the cold front through the day Friday, winds will strengthen further leading to potentially hazardous conditions for small craft later this weekend. Winds will remain near or above Cautionary Headline criteria through the weekend, with small craft advisories likely needed at times. A coastal low or sharp trough looks affect the waters early next week bringing potential for significant marine impacts to the coastal waters. However, these impacts will greatly depend on the specific track of the low. The current forecast calls for high-end Small Craft Advisory conditions, with winds in the 20-30kt range accompanied by higher gusts and seas of 6 to 10 ft across the open Gulf Waters. Beyond Monday winds and seas will likely continue to remain elevated with a continuation of hazardous conditions through the end of the forecast period. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-557-577.

Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ531>536-541-543-557-577.

Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for GMZ553-554-570-572-575.