textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 450 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- A warming trend will bring the area back to the mid 80s for highs by the end of the week along with the next chance of rainfall.

- The threat for showers and strong thunderstorms will increase going into the weekend as a front approaches northern portions of the area.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A noticeable trend towards a dry weekend advertised by the ensemble means, this includes all 3, the GFES, ECS, and CMCE. That isn't quite the case with the operational runs as all three have some rain mainly Saturday which is actually just before this portion of the forecast discussion but the rain could linger into the evening/overnight hours if it develops. Sunday through Tuesday the overwhelming majority of the guidance is dry and quite warm with the forecast explicitly showing highs hitting 90s degrees for the first time this season. Temperature wise NBM is in agreement with these warm temperatures and is actually a touch warmer in some locations. However, the NBM is still more optimistic with regards to rain especially on Sunday when most of the guidance is dry. The PoPs aren't outrageous only 30-40 in the northern half of the area but the QPF seems a little overzealous area wise with the values. Given the only slightly higher PoPs than the rest of the guidance on Sunday no adjustments will be made from the NBM that comes in later tonight.

Overall the changes in the extended forecast compared to the last few nights is only minor bunt the most noticeable change is the ridge quickly trying to build back in, possibly even as fast as Saturday night. The ridge over the southeastern CONUS and Gulf through Thursday that gets suppressed Friday will quickly begin to build and amplify over the western Gulf and Mexico eventually building back into the area with the ridge axis extending northeast through the TN/OH River valleys by Sunday morning. This would lead to a drier and hotter forecast which has been the trend now for a few days. The amplifying ridge is mainly in response to the west coast/western CONUS L/W trough anchoring back to the west and digging along the coast once again. The increase in the subtropical jet coming out of the Pacific and over the Baja will mostly lift northeast across the southern and central Plains. With that look for the mostly dry forecast to continue along with the heat rising. with that Heat impacts begin to become a greater concern this weekend and early next week. Let's be honest yes upper 80s and even a few lower 90s isn't necessarily hot but for April however, first this is record territory for the for much of the area but the biggest issue is many people won't quite yet be climatized to those temperatures and the Heat Index values could top out in the mid 90s. With this just remember to stay hydrated and understand that heat exhaustion could creep up on you faster than you would typically think right now. A few more weekends of temps like this or slightly warmer and most people will be fine but given this is the first weekend with these temperatures and multiple events occurring this weekend if you are out there just be prepared. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A noticeable trend towards a dry weekend advertised by the ensemble means, this includes all 3, the GFES, ECS, and CMCE. That isn't quite the case with the operational runs as all three have some rain mainly Saturday which is actually just before this portion of the forecast discussion but the rain could linger into the evening/overnight hours if it develops. Sunday through Tuesday the overwhelming majority of the guidance is dry and quite warm with the forecast explicitly showing highs hitting 90s degrees for the first time this season. Temperature wise NBM is in agreement with these warm temperatures and is actually a touch warmer in some locations. However, the NBM is still more optimistic with regards to rain especially on Sunday when most of the guidance is dry. The PoPs aren't outrageous only 30-40 in the northern half of the area but the QPF seems a little overzealous area wise with the values. Given the only slightly higher PoPs than the rest of the guidance on Sunday no adjustments will be made from the NBM that comes in later tonight.

Overall the changes in the extended forecast compared to the last few nights is only minor bunt the most noticeable change is the ridge quickly trying to build back in, possibly even as fast as Saturday night. The ridge over the southeastern CONUS and Gulf through Thursday that gets suppressed Friday will quickly begin to build and amplify over the western Gulf and Mexico eventually building back into the area with the ridge axis extending northeast through the TN/OH River valleys by Sunday morning. This would lead to a drier and hotter forecast which has been the trend now for a few days. The amplifying ridge is mainly in response to the west coast/western CONUS L/W trough anchoring back to the west and digging along the coast once again. The increase in the subtropical jet coming out of the Pacific and over the Baja will mostly lift northeast across the southern and central Plains. With that look for the mostly dry forecast to continue along with the heat rising. with that Heat impacts begin to become a greater concern this weekend and early next week. Let's be honest yes upper 80s and even a few lower 90s isn't necessarily hot but for April however, first this is record territory for the for much of the area but the biggest issue is many people won't quite yet be climatized to those temperatures and the Heat Index values could top out in the mid 90s. With this just remember to stay hydrated and understand that heat exhaustion could creep up on you faster than you would typically think right now. A few more weekends of temps like this or slightly warmer and most people will be fine but given this is the first weekend with these temperatures and multiple events occurring this weekend if you are out there just be prepared. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

There will be cigs over the area today and tonight but should remain VFR. The only chance of rain will be from HUM to BTR during the daylight hours. Cigs could fall tonight into MVFR at BTR and even lower at MCB toward sunrise Thu.

MARINE

Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

As high pressure shifts east of the coastal waters, winds will gradually become southeasterly and then southerly over the next few days. There will be little change in the surface pressure pattern through much of this week. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend, with some uncertainty whether it reaches the northern gulf waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.