textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Dry conditions will persist through Friday.

- Rain chances will gradually increase slightly early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The H5 ridge has settled west over the Red River Valley in southeast OK/Northeast TX. This places our region in a northeasterly flow aloft. This will likely continue to keep things dry at least through today and Saturday. Low levels will remain less humid, which despite temperatures approaching record numbers, heat index values will remain at or below 100F, which is far from needing any heat headlines.

Going into the weekend eyes will begin to shift east toward Florida as an ULL begins to move westward over the eastern Gulf before stalling. Our region will remain in the northeasterly flow on the western periphery of the ULL. This will also be the dry side, but low level moisture will start to gradually increase going into the new week. As moisture returns diurnally driven POPs will increase slightly. Still on the lower-end, but nonzero Sunday and Monday, especially closer to the Coast. Otherwise, the main story will continue to be the well above average temperatures through the period.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The trend toward a warmer and drier forecast for the middle part of next week continues. Most guidance now agrees the upper low will dissipate before moving west of the local area, keeping the southern MS Valley on the dry side of the trough. High pressure also looks to build farther south and east toward the local area, keeping POPs fairly low through the middle to latter part of the work week as well. Generally carrying only isolated rain chances during the period.

In response to the lack of cloud cover and convection, temperatures will remain solidly above normal through the period with lows in the 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s. Maximum afternoon heat index values currently forecast generally in the 100-105 degree range.

95/DM

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions with only a light easterly wind expected through the cycle. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to spread into the region from the north. Prior to the arrival of this feature, low level pressure gradient will somewhat be tight offshore leading to cautionary headlines across the outer gulf waters. Overall conditions will continue to gradually improve through the weekend. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.