textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026 - Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the work week with fog potential increasing a bit by Thursday and Friday mornings.

- Next substantial rain will be late in the week and into the weekend as a cold front approaches and moves through the local area. Rain totals should remain fairly low most places, and likely will not result in much, if any, drought relief.

- A significant cool down is forecast Sunday into the beginning of the next work week. The coldest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions for some northern areas. Those with sensitive vegetation should keep an eye on the forecast, especially given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their cool season dormancy.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1223 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Tonight through Thursday night, conditions will be fairly dry, but with zonal flow aloft. Southerly flow continues to advect warmer and humid air into the region. Warmer, mild temperatures will prevail predominantly with highs approaching 80 degrees on Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will be possible Thursday afternoon during peak daytime heating hours primarily. These storms will have some gusty winds (30-50mph) and lightning as the main threats.

Some dense patchy fog will be possible overnight again, but looking at the models, this will be similar to last night with visibilities generally staying above 1SM, so no dense fog advisories were issued at this time.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1223 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

An upper level disturbance approaches the area and stalls to our northwest Friday before pushing through the area with a frontal system on Saturday. Scattered afternoon showers and storms are expected Friday during peak daytime heating hours. Looking at the models, these may have lightning, but are not expected to be severe. The main line of storms pushes through the area late Saturday into Sunday. Looking at the models, the system is fairly weak overall, at least in latest model runs. Severe weather is not likely, but we could see some strong storms as it moves through with gusty winds and lightning.

On the backside of the frontal system, cold air advection will bring another cold snap through the area. Low temperatures on Monday will be in the mid 30s with highs in the mid 50s. Currently, low temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low 30s with some locations forecast to see temperatures below freezing, mainly north of I-10/12. After Tuesday, we start to see a warming trend next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through at least 06z when lower cigs begin to develop. Expect IFR conditions to develop during the late night/early morning hours as cigs continue to build down. The biggest question will again be whether the winds are able to decouple enough to allow for fog development toward daybreak. While vsby less than 1 mile cannot be ruled out, with uncertainties in whether winds will calm enough to allow for denser fog development, think cigs will be the more limiting factor for most terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1223 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

As high pressure continues to shift eastward, a moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will persist through the end of the week. A strong cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in again behind it. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will cause winds to strengthen and turn offshore again Saturday night with small craft advisories likely necessary through at least Sunday evening.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.