textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 447 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered daily showers and thunderstorms is expected through the next several days. Chances of severe weather and heavy rain will be low, a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Heat advisories will not be issued for now as the column will be ventilated each day. But temps will still be just under criteria so a large amount of the area will still reach around 105HI each day during the afternoon hours.

In the absence of any orgainized system or dynamics to support any one place getting storms or not, guessing where the first storm pops up will be like guessing where the first bubble will pop up in water as it reaches boiling temp. This is a very normal summer scenario for our area where your house may be getting a storm with heavy rain and your neighbor across the street is dry. The next several days will be like this. Some days will have a few more storms than others, but for the most part 30-50% on a diurnal rhythm will be the mainstay of this fcast. Within any typical population of storms during any given day in the summer, one or two can very well become a renegade storm producing strong winds, heavy rainfall and even a waterspout/tornadoe but the risk level is not high enough to have any confidence for any particular area.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

After the holiday weekend ends the ridge, albeit weaker will remain over the region with the 594dam dome over the southeast US. This feature doesn't really move much through the week and settles right over the area through the end of the long term. This will continue to promote above average temperatures. With southerly low level flow, moisture will continue to advect into the region from the Gulf/Tropics. Temperatures in the mid and upper 90s plus high humidity values will again fuel the likely need for additional heat headlines early to midweek next week. The good news is with the rich low level flow along with sea/lake breezes each day, convection will be possible during peak heating, which could help a bit with the heat. Although, at this juncture nothing more than climo POPs given placement of the ridge and at least a bit of subsidence. Also, with a bit more dry air aloft, the more robust updrafts will likely because strong gusty winds. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 447 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 groups as there won't be as much activity around as yesterday, but those that do happen to move over any terminal will produce at most MVFR conditions temporarily. Most if not all activity will decay with the loss of daytime heating. The early moving nocturnals will develop again with some moving onshore possibly impacting coastal terminals. Outside any SHRA or TSRA, VFR will be the rule at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Winds will generally be 10kts or less and direction will vary through midweek, becoming more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. The overall gradient is relatively weak which is why winds struggle to exceed 10 kts and seas/waves mostly under a couple feet. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day. A few may be stronger and could produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts, and locally hazardous seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.