textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front moves through. Severe weather threat remains low.

- Mostly dry and pleasant conditions return Thursday through the weekend, with additional cold fronts expected.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The main focus of the short term will be the approaching cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but before we get there, temperatures and cloud cover will be the main forecast challenge on Tuesday. Currently, weak shortwave ridging is moving across the area while persistent onshore flow continues to advect low-level moisture inland. This will keep clouds around tonight and limit how much temperatures can cool, with lows generally in the mid to upper 60s and around 70 south of I-10.

On Tuesday, a mid-level trough will eject northeastward across the southern Plains and into the Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this trough, continued warm and moist air advection will keep temperatures above average generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. However, exactly how much cloud cover sticks around throughout the day will determine how warm we get. Looking at the latest short- range guidance, cloud cover is more persistent across the eastern portions of the area, particularly coastal Mississippi, while some clearing is expected farther west in the afternoon. Therefore, maximum temperatures were increased slightly along the I-12 corridor between Baton Rouge and Hammond where more afternoon heating is expected. Meanwhile, temperatures were lowered across the eastern half of the area due to increased confidence in persistent cloud cover limiting daytime heating.

As we get into Tuesday night, the aforementioned trough will begin taking on a more negative tilt as it moves into the Mississippi Valley. This will provide sufficient large-scale forcing for showers and a few thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the area. However, the biggest question will be how much convection is able to develop and maintain itself this far south. Although moisture will be sufficient with dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to around 70, mid-level lapse rates look rather poor at less than 5.5 C/km. This will aid in limiting instability with MLCAPE generally struggling to reach 800 j/kg. The strongest shear will also be displaced north of the area, with deep-layer shear less than 30kt locally. Therefore, although a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out, particularly across southwest Mississippi, the overall severe weather threat remains low.

Looking at the precipitation guidance, the models have a fairly pronounced west-to-east difference in timing and coverage, with the greatest probabilities generally Tuesday night and into early Wednesday across the northwestern parts of our area. For example, the latest NBM has a 65% 12-hr PoP at BTR ending 12z Wednesday, compared to 10% at MSY. This illustrates the uncertainty in how much precipitation can maintain itself as the front moves southeast. Regardless, the front should push through Wednesday morning with improving conditions throughout the afternoon as dry air advection and subsidence take over behind it.

Temperatures should cool closer to average Wednesday night and Thursday as weak cold air advection takes place behind the front. Most inland locations should fall into the 50s Wednesday night, with lower 60s close to the coast. Thursday looks rather pleasant with highs generally in the upper 70s and lower 80s. However, another shortwave approaching from the west will start increasing cloud cover Thursday night. Although winds should be rather light and the post frontal airmass would normally support efficient radiational cooling, the increasing cloud cover should limit how much temperatures can fall Friday morning. Therefore, minimum temperatures were increased by blending the NBM 50th and 75th percentiles to account for the reduced cooling potential.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

As we get into Friday, another positively tilted trough will be traversing the central CONUS and approaching the lower Mississippi Valley. This will help push a weak reinforcing cold front through the area sometime Friday. The main question with this feature will be whether sufficient moisture can return ahead of the front to produce any meaningful precipitation. Looking at the global guidance, the GFS is more aggressive with precipitation development compared to the other guidance, but even its rainfall amounts are relatively light. The GFS extended MOS also has a notably higher precip signal Friday, with 12-hour PoPs of 54% at MSY and 41% at MCB during the afternoon and evening period. However, with limited time for meaningful moisture return following Wednesday's frontal passage, confidence in widespread rainfall remains rather low. A few showers will be possible, but most locations should remain rather dry.

Behind this front, a relatively progressive upper-level pattern looks to take over briefly on Saturday. This should bring mostly dry and pleasant conditions with temperatures generally near seasonal averages. However, the next upper-level trough digging southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will be something to watch as we get into Sunday and early next week.

Looking at the medium-range guidance, there is fairly decent agreement in the overall development of this trough, but differences begin showing up in its timing and amplification. Some deterministic solutions are more aggressive with digging the trough southward and potentially closing off an upper-level low across the Mid-South early next week, while the ensemble guidance indicates uncertainty in exactly how this feature evolves. This will have implications on the timing and strength of the next cold front pushing into the area late in the weekend.

Unlike the previous two fronts, this one looks to have a more substantial continental airmass behind it. Therefore, another cooling trend is expected toward the beginning of next week as cooler and drier air advects southward. With little opportunity for meaningful moisture return ahead of this front, precipitation chances should remain rather limited. The biggest uncertainty will be just how much cold air is able to make it this far south, which will depend on the eventual strength and progression of the trough.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A mix of MVFR and IFR to start the cycle this morning. There could be some slight improvement with CIGs rising above 3kft at times this afternoon, but largely most terminals will remain in the MVFR range today and this evening before CIGs lower overnight tonight. Western terminals do have PROBs for showers late tonight and early Wednesday. Otherwise, VIS/fog issues will be possible around sunrise Wednesday for several terminals, especially if surface winds decrease. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Moderate easterly winds of 15 to 20 kt will continue across the coastal waters tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions lingering over portions of the waters through midnight. As the pressure gradient relaxes ahead of the approaching cold front, winds will gradually decrease and become more southeasterly Tuesday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front moves through the waters. Winds will shift offshore behind the front Wednesday, but with limited cold air advection and a relatively weak pressure gradient, a significant post frontal wind surge is not expected. This should allow seas to gradually subside through Thursday. Another weak cold front will move through Friday, followed by a potentially stronger front late in the weekend that could bring another increase in offshore winds.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.