textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index values generally running in the mid 100s to near 110 today, and then likely climbing into the lower 110's this weekend. Heat Advisories are in place for today and Heat Warnings are likely Saturday, Sunday, and into the new week. The impact of the afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal overnight lows; we just won't have a chance to cool off.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Heat will be the biggest message for the short term. Ambient temps will be in the mid to upper 90s today but will begin to test the century mark through the weekend. Most guidance wants to paint the area with a lot of 99F which means that there will be several areas moving into the 100s, and this is not heat index numbers. But it is easy to see how heat index numbers will not have an issue making it to heat warning criteria over the weekend. The start of the new week does not look very different, but we may be able to tack on a few %points to precip numbers which could give a few locations some relief, but that would be during the hottest part of the day.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The long term still continues to look hot with the upper ridge stretched from the Desert Southwest all the way to the western Atlantic Monday night. There is a subtle weakness in the globals that redevelops over the southern Mississippi River Valley by Tuesday or Wednesday as an easterly wave moves across the central Gulf. This will NOT break the heat, but may help with a little less subsidence for a slight uptick in convective coverage during the diurnal cycle. Unfortunately, we're talking 25-30 vs 15-20...which means most of the area remains dry. Just like the current week, any storms will probably start developing near lake and sea breeze boundaries around midday, then propagate away from those areas. Widespread precipitation is not expected during the workweek at this time.

Where precipitation doesn't occur, soil moisture will continue to decrease, which will help daily highs remain in the mid and upper 90s to near 100 degrees. PWATs are still forecast to increase to around 2.0" which suggests better moisture quality with more limited mixing leading to higher surface relative humidity values. Bottom line here is with the higher temps and higher humidity, "feels like" temps will remain close to upper end of heat advisory or perhaps warning criteria.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms will be possible mainly toward sunrise. Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside any storms.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.