textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

- There is a low chance for frozen precipitation before sunrise.

- Wind chills in the mid 20s are possible across the area overnight.

- Portions of the area along/north of I-12 in LA as well as the MS coast could see sub freezing overnight lows for 3 consecutive mornings, through Tuesday morning.

- Small Craft headlines in effect across the coastal waters until midday Sunday, due to 20-25 knot north winds and seas to 6-9 feet offshore.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Upper trough axis was moving through Arkansas and east Texas at mid- evening with an upstream shortwave over the Dakotas. Upper ridging remained near stationary along the Pacific Coast.

At the surface, boundaries representing progressively colder surges of air continued to move southeastward. Last night's cold front is well beyond the south edge of our coastal waters. The next was over southwest Mississippi, with a third moving into southern Arkansas and north Texas at 11 PM. While there is quite a bit of precipitation showing up on radar across the southern half of the area at this evening, there hasn't been much reaching the ground to this point. Analysis of the evening soundings and radar data indicate any potential frozen hydrometeors aren't getting much below 4,000 feet before melting. Additionally, as the upper trough continues to shift east and southeast, it should serve to force the moisture further southeastward. Temperatures were only just starting to fall into the upper 30s over southwest Mississippi at 11 PM CST, with the freezing line near Interstate 20. While the threat of observing very light sleet or snow can't be entirely eliminated near and south of Interstate 10 over the next 3-6 hours, no significant impacts are expected.

Clouds should be gone, or nearly so, by sunrise. Forecast soundings indicate the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere will be too dry to support clouds for much of the area through sunrise Tuesday.

Highs Sunday should top out in the mid 40s to lower 50s with low humidity, likely below 30 percent in the afternoon. Clear skies and calm winds will make for near perfect radiating conditions early Monday morning. Much of the north half of the area could fall below freezing for several hours Monday morning. At present, it appears that areas south of Interstate 10 could stay near or just above freezing. That's going to be a close call, and day shift can reassess in the morning. Highs Monday may get pretty close to 60 before the cold air gets reinforced (again). Tuesday morning could once again bring sub-freezing temperatures to at least the north half of the area.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Upper flow becomes more zonal for Tuesday and much of the remainder of the workweek. A southern stream shortwave moves along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday night and Thursday. Instability is very limited, or non-existent through Friday, if current forecast soundings are any indication, so just rain showers with the Wednesday night/Thursday system. A bit of a break in the weather for about 36 hours before another potential rain over the weekend.

Tuesday will probably be about 5 degrees cooler than Monday, before a moderating trend kicks in on Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be near normal Wednesday and then a bit above for the back end of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals at forecast issuance. There's a small potential for MVFR conditions at KGPT or KHUM in precipitation overnight. There's also a low end potential (30 percent) of -SN or PL at KGPT as the coldest air arrives well after 06z. All terminals should be SKC shortly after 12z, if not sooner. Northwest to north wind gusts in excess of 25 knots will be possible at KNEW for the remainder of the night, but should subside by mid-morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1124 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Multiple surges of cold air are moving across the local area into the coastal waters. We will leave the Small Craft Advisory in place until expiration. Wind speeds should drop off quickly during the late morning and early afternoon hours. A reinforcing backdoor cold front moves into the Gulf Monday night. Winds may bump back up to exercise caution category but not looking like advisory level conditions at the moment. A short-term period of return flow does develop mid week as post front ridge situated north of the region slides east before the next cold front comes through late in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 45 29 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 48 30 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 49 29 58 28 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 50 35 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 49 32 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 50 26 57 27 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.