textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 111 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

- There is a threat of severe weather Friday afternoon and evening ahead of our next cold front. There is currently a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for the whole area, with damaging winds and tornadoes being the primary threats. Please stay weather aware tomorrow and have multiple ways of receiving warnings.

- In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also a threat of flash flooding starting early Friday morning and lasting through Saturday morning. Similar to the severe weather, there is a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 2 out of 4) for the whole area. A Flood Watch has also been issued starting midnight tonight through Saturday morning from along I-59 and westward where we can expect widespread 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts above 6 inches.

- After the front passes on Saturday, gusty offshore winds will filter in behind it. Small craft advisories will likely be needed starting on Sunday, as the winds and waves will be dangerous for small vessels.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 111 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

We continue to stay abnormally warm today as we remain under the influence of the upper-level ridge that has been over the northern Gulf Coast since Monday. The upper-level trough that is currently ejecting across the central CONUS has pushed the downstream ridge and its associated high pressure to the east. That has helped increase winds as well as bring in more humid air into the area. Because of that, we could see some showers across the area later this evening. Even though the system associated with the trough over the central CONUS will still have its low-level jet (LLJ) in our western areas, a warm nose at 650mb looks to keep those showers as just showers.

However, as we get further into the night and closer to midnight, warm moist air advection is expected to strengthen across that area and actually increase dew points by 3-4 degrees while maintaining air temperature. This surface moistening could help to break that cap at 650mb around midnight. If we get a confluent band that sets up around that time, we could see a small risk of mini supercells or a small QLCS while the preceding system's LLJ sticks around the area. Because it sticks around, we will have plenty of wind shear with 300+ SRH, and maybe just enough MLCAPE around 700j/kg. Regardless of if it's cells or a QLCS, brief tornadoes will be on the table for SW MS from midnight through 6am when the preceding trough's LLJ ejects across the Tennessee Valley.

As we get into Friday, a trailing mid-level jet streak is expected to eject across the Texas Panhandle and central Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening on Friday. This ejection looks to spin up a surface low at some point across northern Louisiana in response to it. The trend has been slower and further east with the low formation, thus a later and further east formation of its associated LLJ. This would be overall less favorable for severe weather as cells remain more messy in nature and struggle to mature as the forcing lags behind before the low forms late Friday evening. However, if earlier runs of the high-resolution guidance is more accurate with a sooner low formation and farther west, the secondary LLJ would form off of the coast and eject right over our area. The latter would be more favorable for severe weather as any cell that would form would have over 1500 MLCAPE and over 200 SRH with long, curved hodographs. Essentially, this is all to say that we are trending less favorable for severe weather overall for our area, but the ceiling is still a few tornadoes, which could be long-tracked. We will have to continue to monitor trends if this keeps trending downwards or if it flips back, so don't let your guard down just yet.

The other big impact for our system on Friday is flash flooding. Regardless of when the low develops, we will get confluence bands throughout the afternoon and evening on Friday as we will have broad lift across the area. This band is expected to parallel the upper-level flow from the southwest, causing it to mot move very much, if at all, throughout the afternoon and evening. When you couple that with the anomalous moisture we will have (PW will be right near the daily max of 1.77 inches), expect areas along and west of I-59 to receive 2-4 inches of rainfall Friday with locally higher amounts above 6 inches. Because of the training expected with that, a Flood Watch has been issued for all day on Friday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 111 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Some of the lingering convection from Friday is expected to be ongoing across our eastern areas Saturday morning ahead of the cold front. By that time, most of the dynamics will have well ejected out of the area, so these showers/storms will not pose much of a severe weather threat. The cold front is expected to push through the area Saturday evening.

We look to cool off by a solid 10-15 degrees as highs struggle to get out of the 50s on Sunday. With the cold air advecting into the area, areas along and north of the I-12 corridor is expected to see freezing temperatures Monday morning. Cold air advection is expected to continue during the day Monday, leading to highs only in the low 50s. Cold air advection finally shuts down Monday night, but the trailing surface high looks to setup across the area Monday night and Tuesday morning. This will help to radiate efficiently and lead to another night of freezing temperatures along and north of the I-12 corridor Tuesday morning.

The high pressure is expected to slide to the east on Tuesday, and we are expected to briefly warm up on Tuesday and Wednesday in response to that.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Expecting scattered light showers to develop this evening across mainly western terminals. Ceilings will continually lower throughout this evening and overnight tonight ahead of our next cold front as moist air at the surface advects across the area. The onset of the LIFR ceilings is expected to be 06z across the northern terminals, but by 12z, LIFR ceilings should be in place throughout all terminals. By 18z, these ceilings should start to lift/mix out, but then convection is expected to begin at that time and persist through the evening. Visibility is not expected to be as big of a problem as the ceilings due to the winds being elevated throughout the night tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 111 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Fog will be possible again overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning as very warm and moist air advects over the cooler shelf waters and the MS River. However, since the winds are expected to be higher overnight (15-18kt) there is some uncertainty with that. Therefore, if confidence increases with fog formation, an advisory might be needed.

The winds are increasing due to the high pressure that is dominating the Gulf sliding northeast. Moderate onshore flow will continue through Friday night until a cold front moves through Saturday with a window of strong offshore winds. Because of the increase in winds, an SCS was included for all of the waters for now until Saturday morning. Rain chances will begin to increase late today however, Friday and Friday night into Saturday morning will have the greatest potential for rain with the best chance of thunderstorms some likely strong Friday night and early Saturday.

One last impact to mention. With days of onshore flow prior to the cold front we will have a rather well set up fetch out of the south. With winds quickly veering around to the north-northwest immediately behind the cold front there will be a window of what is called confused seas. The greatest potential appears to be in the outer waters (20-60nm) and west of the mouth of the MS River.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 66 75 62 69 / 80 90 100 60 BTR 67 79 63 71 / 70 90 100 60 ASD 64 76 63 72 / 50 80 90 80 MSY 67 78 65 73 / 50 80 80 80 GPT 64 73 64 72 / 30 70 70 90 PQL 63 76 64 74 / 20 60 60 90

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch from midnight CST tonight through Saturday morning for LAZ036-037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch from midnight CST tonight through Saturday morning for MSZ069>071-077-083-086.

GM...None.