textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and widespread Wednesday through the weekend. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA.

- Minor coastal flooding may slightly impact typically known problem areas like Waveland, MS tomorrow and Wednesday around midday.

- Temperatures are forecast to be generally near to warmer than normal through the next 7 days.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

We are seeing isolated to widely scattered showers over the area, mainly along and north of the 10/12 corridor. this activity should quickly come to an end as the sun begins to set.

As for tomorrow, rain chances may be a tad higher but overall Tuesday will be fairly similar to today. We will likely still have enough ridging in place to keep convection down to isolated to widely scattered but as the week continues convection will increase in coverage. Biggest positive from a rain chance stand point will be the moisture increase. Moisture is already slowly increasing but we will see Pws surge tomorrow. If rain remains on the lower end tomorrow and clouds aren't too thick, it will be a warm day. h925 temps of 23-24 C suggest highs around 90 to lower 90s. But given the likelihood of broken skies we probably wont fully realize those temps but upper 80s to maybe a few locations touching 90 will be possible.

One more possible impact tomorrow could be minor coastal flooding in some of the common problem areas. We are right at Spring tide for the month and given the persistent light to moderate onshore flow we are running around 0.6 to just under 1' above astronomical and that will be the case for atleast one more day tomorrow. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Medium range models are in rather good agreement with southwest flow remaining over the area through the forecast. Obviously specific timing of impulses and rainfall amounts differ but the overall setup is no different. NBM is advertising numerous to categorical PoPs starting Wednesday and each day through the weekend and without being able to get very specific with timing see no reason to deviate from it.

Southwest flow finally gets strong enough to push the ridging aloft to the east and the first in a series of impulses is expected to push through the region. Timing of it specifically is still too difficult to pin point at this time. Moisture already having increased with PWs at or just below 2" will be in place. We will likely see quite a bit more activity Wednesday afternoon and into the evening than we have the previous 5 days, mainly across the northwest. The southeastern half of the CWA could remain mostly dry as the ridge could still have enough of an impact over these locations.

Heading into Thursday and through the weekend things only improve for rain potential over the northwestern 2/3rds of the CWA. Southwest flow will remain in place through this time. There will be no front plowing through or trough axis sliding completely across the region thus leaving a moisture abundant atmosphere in place. In addition there will be persistent diffluence aloft as the ridging to our east will try to induce split flow in the upper levels right over the region. That, unstable conditions, and the abundant moisture in place will aid the efficiency of storms and rainfall could begin to quickly add up over some of the northwest. Locations along extreme SELA and much of coastal MS on the other hand may struggle to get more than an inch of rain over the next 7 days. /CAB/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Mostly VFR this evening will give way to more MVFR CIGs overnight before improving once again by mid morning on Tuesday. Mostly light to moderate southerly winds will prevail. Tuesday afternoon additional convection will be possible for the western terminals...covered these with PROBs during peak heating hours on Tuesday. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A large area of high pressure will remain situated over the western Atlantic through the week and into the weekend. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds will bounce around headline criteria over the next 24 to 36 hours with sustained winds right around 15 kts, especially closer to the coast. Exercise Caution headlines will be in effect again overnight for the waters west of the mouth of the river along with Breton and Chandeluer Sound. As for showers and thunderstorms daily isolated to scattered light showers will be possible each day however the bull of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorm locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. One last hiccup is maybe some very minor coastal flooding impacts, mainly around the Waveland area given the high astronomical tides and persistent southerly winds. Tuesday midday may be the peak of any tidal impact's. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.