textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns from Thursday through Saturday. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

- A strong cold front will move through the area late this week bringing potential for frost and the first freeze of the season for some areas mainly Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A fast moving positively tilted southern stream shortwave trough will tap into a limited pool of moisture to produce a period of isolated to scattered light to occasionally moderate rain showers in the area on Wednesday. Skies will be mostly cloudy through the day and temperatures will be slightly warmer than average in the mid to upper 70s. The fast moving shortwave trough will quickly exit the area in the evening hours and weak front will slip through during the overnight hours. This front will be associated with a deepening longwave trough in the northern stream that will come to dominate the eastern third of the CONUS through the end of the weekend. Deep layer northwest flow will develop over the area and remain in place through the remainder of the short term period. Initially, the first front will not have much cold air associated with it, but it will bring a much drier airmass into the area. A reinforcing front will then push through the region Thursday night, and this front will bring a cooler airmass into the area. Temperatures Thursday night will cool into the 40s north and west of the tidal lakes and the lower 50s south of the lakes. Highs will be closer to average on Friday in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Finally, the strongest front of the period will sweep through the region Friday night. Temperatures will plunge even further as stronger cold air advection takes hold with lows dipping into the upper 30s north of I-10/12 and the 40s and lower 50s south of the interstate corridor. Highs on Saturday will struggle to warm into the mid to upper 60s beneath clear skies.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The clear and cold conditions will continue into Saturday night as a shortwave ridge passes over the region. Light winds, low humidity, and clear skies will allow lows to dip into the low to mid 30s along and north of the I-10/12 corridor and the 40s south of this corridor. A frost or even a light freeze in some of the river drainages is possible for Saturday night.

As we move into the start of next week, a transition to a more unsettled pattern is expected as another fast moving southern stream shortwave trough moves into the region in the wake of the departing shortwave ridge axis. Sunday will be a day of transition as winds turn more easterly and Gulf moisture gradually feeds back into the area. Temperatures will remain cooler than average with highs remaining in the mid 60s even as dewpoints steadily increase through the day. Mid and high level cloud cover will also increase through the day and mostly cloudy skies are expected by the evening hours. The shortwave trough will slide through the region on Monday and will bring scattered to numerous light to moderate rain showers to the area. Rainfall totals will generally be less than a quarter of an inch, so no relief from the ongoing drought conditions will come from this system. Temperatures will be slightly warmer with lows warming by around 10 degrees and highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s, but overall readings will still be a few degrees cooler than average. Tuesday will see similar temperatures as weak cold air advection in the wake of the trough takes hold. Increasing subsidence and dry air advection will also end any rain chances and allow for clearing skies by Tuesday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Some -RA will move through at a few terminals mostly along and south of the I10/12 corridor. Cigs associated with this activity is expected to remain at VFR levels. Vis is also expected to be VFR for the most part, but vis could be reduced to MVFR with any pockets of heavier RA. Any RA around the area will begin to decay and move out by mid afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1010 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Light and variable winds will remain in place over the waters through Wednesday afternoon as a weak surface high pressure system passes through the region. However, a cold front will sweep into the waters Wednesday night, and this will usher in stronger northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots through Thursday afternoon. A second, much stronger, front will then sweep through the area Thursday night with winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the lakes and sounds and over 20 knots in the open Gulf waters. These stronger small craft advisory level winds will persist into Friday morning before easing back to 10 to 15 knots as high pressure builds back over the area from the north. Heading into the weekend, a third round of small craft advisory conditions will impact the waters starting Saturday night and persisting into Monday as a very strong cold front advects a much colder airmass over the warmer coastal waters. Seas will respond by increasing to 6 to 10 feet by Monday morning as the strong northeasterly winds persist.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.