textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- One more morning of freezing temperatures is expected Tuesday morning as lows drop into the upper 20s and low 30s along and north of the I-12 corridor. In addition to the freezing temps, expect widespread frost for those same areas through 9am this morning before warming back up.

- Light to moderate rain will affect the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

- Another round of rain will move in on Saturday. Saturday night, temperatures may fall low enough to change the rain over to freezing rain across portions of southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes. There currently is a 40-50% chance of accumulating ice in those areas Saturday night, with the I-12 corridor at about a 10-25% chance.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The surface high that is currently over the Ozarks is expected to shift to the east-southeast throughout the day today as an upper- level impulse traverses southward across the northern Rockies. This shift eastward with the high will put us into an onshore flow regime with warmer temperatures heading into Tuesday night. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday morning are expected to be 10-13 degrees warmer than this morning's lows.

The continued onshore flow is expected to stay in place on Wednesday, so expect similar warmer temperature contrast from today's highs (5-8 degrees warmer). The previously mentioned impulse coming down the Rockies is expected to pick up a piece of energy from northern Mexico during the day Wednesday. This will help to bring mid-level lift and moisture across the area (PW gets to just shy of the 90th percentile for this time of year). This combination of events will lead to some light to moderate showers across mainly the northern half of the area Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday night) Issued at 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

As that phased system moves off to the east, ridging looks to traverse eastward across the desert Southwest and Texas before eventually making it to our area Thursday afternoon and evening. This upper-level ridging is going to help us warm up to roughly 8-10 degrees above normal on Thursday.

If you do not enjoy the cold, enjoy the warmup on Thursday because afterwards, another strong Arctic front looks to make its way southward across the country on Friday. It looks like we will still be south of the front on Friday, though, but temps will be slightly cooler than Thursday in the low to high 60s. A very strong impulse coming down through the middle of the country is expected to push the initial blast of Arctic air late Friday and into Saturday. There is a big question as to how far south the coldest air gets.

Just how far south the coldest air gets lead right into the big elephant in the room which is wintry precipitation, mainly in the form of freezing rain. Models have been abnormally consistent that an impactful winter storm is going to come out from the strong impulse coming out of Canada phasing with a southern stream impulse over California. This phasing is going to cause low cyclogenesis across the northern Gulf during the day Saturday. Because the impulse is phasing with a southern stream impulse, this helps create a warm nose over the dense Arctic airmass, leading to mostly freezing rain this far south. Where models do diverge is how far south the the coldest air gets, how strong the surface low gets, and where the surface low tracks. A stronger low would likely take the track slightly farther north, thus keeping the freezing rain and coldest temperatures north of the area, while a weaker low would favor a southern track, and thus a high threat of freezing rain for our area. Current trends seem to favor the stronger/northern track at this time, but there still seems to be roughly a 40-50% chance that parts of southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Florida Parishes see accumulating ice (0.01 inch). Those probabilities will continue to be refined as we get into the short range with this system, but as it stands, somewhere is going to get hit hard with accumulating ice, it just seems to be a matter of where and how much at this point. If the weaker low solution starts to win, then we could see more ice impacts. But at this point, its a matter of which direction models trend over the next few days.

Regardless of if we get ice or not, we will return to below freezing temps on the backside of this system as the Arctic air filters into the area on Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR through this cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1114 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A reinforcing cold front moved into the Gulf this morning, bringing a bump in wind speeds. Winds will be up above 15 knots, so cautionary headlines were introduced from tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Afterwards on Wednesday, winds will turn onshore at 10 to 15 knots as a high shifts to the east and a low pressure system approaches from the west. These lighter onshore winds will persist through Thursday night. Friday will see winds turn more east and northeasterly behind the departing low. Saturday should see winds increase further to at least exercise caution and possibly small craft advisory range as a reinforcing front passes through the waters and a colder airmass begins to move in from the north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 58 40 64 52 / 0 0 30 60 BTR 63 44 69 55 / 0 0 30 50 ASD 60 41 67 53 / 0 0 10 30 MSY 60 48 68 57 / 0 0 10 30 GPT 59 43 65 55 / 0 0 10 30 PQL 60 38 65 52 / 0 0 0 30

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.