textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- Moderate to High confidence in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, with localized flooding and a few strong to severe storms possible.

- Finally start to dry out Tuesday as ridging builds into the area. Expect temperatures to increase again by mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Currently monitoring the convective complex moving over the southeast LA Coast including portions of the southshore. This has dropped an inch or two of rain already across the immediate coast with some localized minor flooding taking shape in Grand Isle. This is the first area of precip to monitor. The second is forecast to develop in a few hours along the I10/12 corridor. This will be the best chance for both an isolated severe storm or two and hydro concerns. It appears New Orleans has escaped the heaviest rain, which is good to avoid a hydro primer. However, if a line of convection sets up and sits over town, hydro issues will quickly develop with higher rates. Baton Rouge, same can be said there especially considering they have been the "big winner" in terms of rainfall totals over the last week or so. Additionally, any additional heavy rainfall may have impact on local rivers as well. As for watch headlines...uncertainty in amounts and locations will preclude the issuance. However, WPC is becoming a bit more confident upgrading the marginal ERO to a slight with a slightly higher confidence in flash flooding along the I10 corridor.

As the trough upstream finally begins to spread east over the region, the surface front that is currently stalled near BTR to MCB will finally push through the region, which will clear most of the precip out of the area. The GFS wants to hang onto clouds and maybe precip a bit longer on Tuesday. Went with the cloudier solution, but with much drier air moving into the region as the upper levels transition to a dry northwest flow, think precip will be a bit harder to materialize.

Upper heights begin to increase going into Tuesday and especially Wednesday as a ridge builds over Texas. This will help promote a warming trend...not to mention the lower rain chances will also allow us to warm during the day. Additionally, surface winds will drop as high pressure moves into the region. Finally, after several active days in the last week, most of the short term beyond the near term will be dry and rather benign outside of warmer temperatures during the afternoon hours. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Sunday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The long term suggests an overall pattern change with upper level flow becoming more zonal and as surface high pressure spreads east of the region, expect a moderate return flow to develop going into the weekend. This will continue to promote a warming and more humid trend going into the weekend. Globals are mostly dry with little QPF signal, but I cannot rule out a stray shower within the moderate onshore flow. Any rogue shower, however, should be the exception rather than the rule and mostly be confined to the coastal locations where frictional convergence is maximized. Otherwise, warmer conditions will continue into the start of next week. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

SHRA and TSRAs are increasing on the southshore this afternoon. Additional convection will develop along the I10/12 corridor a bit later than earlier thought...and hang around a bit later. With convection expect lower VIS/CIGs MVFR or IFR at times. Otherwise, MVFR conditions once the front passes and rain/convection moves out. Only late in the period will we begin to see some gradual improvement in MVFR CIGs. Otherwise, winds will transitions fully to a northerly or northeasterly direction behind the front. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

South to southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots will persist overnight. Anticipating at least one or two more rounds of storms through this afternoon and into tonight with some strong to severe storms possible across marine waters. Main threats will be wind gusts greater than 34 knots and waterspouts. A frontal boundary will move into the waters Monday night, bringing moderate offshore winds through Tuesday before turning onshore again. Otherwise, marine conditions through the rest of the workweek appear to remain rather benign. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.