textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Cooler and much drier conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week with the passage of a stronger cold front.

- Drier air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate the fire weather risk Sunday through Tuesday. Those under burn bans should avoid burning.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

More of the same today with just high cirrus to note in our skies. The stationary front parked offshore will be reinforced by a secondary cold front that will push through tonight into Saturday morning which will increase northerly winds and invite deeper- layer dry air into the area. The colder air mass will lag behind the front as the front will be starting to lose its coherence, but the front's presence will be most obvious by Sunday morning with low temperatures in the low to mid 40s across the northern half of the CWA, and low to mid 50s across coastal southeast LA. This will be the coldest temperatures we've seen in these areas in a couple of weeks.

The delivery of drier air to the air in conjunction with lingering severe drought conditions especially along and west of I-55 will present an elevated fire weather risk by Sunday. Fortunately, winds will be weakening by Sunday and Monday when minimum RH values will be at their lowest. This will mean conditions should remain below critical thresholds and will not warrant red flag warnings at this time. Even still, those living in areas with burn bans should avoid burning.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A shortwave trough following the subtropical jet stream is currently situated over the southwest CONUS and is expected to dig through northern Mexico and into Texas over this weekend. The lift associated and mid-level moisture transported with this trough will increase cloud coverage over the area into early next week. However, due to the lingering drier low-levels and lack of low-level moisture return ahead of this mainly mid-upper level system will mean there will be very little moisture and instability for this system to work with. PoPs will be less than 10% and mainly focused along the coast as a result.

Looking later into next week, global model ensemble guidance continues to be in reasonable agreement that longwave eastern CONUS trough will be favored. This type of pattern will open us up to more cold front passages as we head into next weekend. However, it's not clear just yet how strong these fronts will be and how much it could cool us down.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR through the forecast period with only a few mid and high clouds at most. A bit of an increase in northerly winds with frontal passage tomorrow morning, but no major impacts to operations expected.

MARINE

Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Winds are generally light and northerly and will remain that way until a reinforcing cold front moves through later today where offshore winds will become a little stronger, around 10 to 15 knots. Northeast winds will be strongest over the weekend with gusts upwards of 20 knots before gradually decreasing into next week as the area remains under the southeast flank of surface high pressure.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.