textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions will remain in place through the work week and likely increase this weekend. The rapid spread of wild fires is not substantial through Friday given the weak wind, however the current and worsening drought conditions and abundant fuels do not alleviate the fire weather concerns. Heading into the weekend winds are expected to increase the Fire Weather headlines may be needed. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued (SPSLIX) to cover this.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The upper air synoptic set has the central US under a well defined Omega block with Louisiana under the subsidence of a high pressure system. At the surface, high pressure is located to the northeast around the Tennessee Valley. All this is to say that more dry weather is expected through the weekend with rain chances basically at zero. Looking at the ULM Mesonet, 2-inch soil moisture across the region is below 10% with 30-day rainfall totals around 50% of expected totals. Besides the impact on agriculture, fire weather partners are feeling the strain as fuels are dry and dormant across the entire region. The main limiting factor for fire weather concerns is a lack of wind, with the high pressure causing light northeast winds. As we move into the second half of the weekend, a broad low pressure system in the Caribbean will advect northward, increasing our pressure gradient and causing winds to increase as well. Most of the stronger winds will be offshore, but NBM90 does show gusts of 20 mph farther inland. With how sensitive fire danger concerns are, the trends in wind speeds will need to be watched closely.

Temperatures will remain a few degrees above the seasonal norms as highs will be in the low to mid 80s with lows around 50 north of I-10 and mid 50s south of the highway.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

As we move into the next workweek, our synoptic pattern does change as the subtropical low off the eastern seaboard is pulled out to sea and the Omega block begins to break down. As the eastern low moves farther into the Atlantic, a cutoff low will dig into the Southwest. Unfortunately for those looking forward to some or any rain, you will have to wait a bit longer, as a high- pressure system almost immediately builds over the central Gulf Coast. Ensemble tables prog this high as substantial for this time of year, with 500 mb heights above the 90th percentile. The ridge will begin to weaken on Tuesday as low pressure moves across the Great Plains and drags a weak cold front across our region. Unfortunately, this is looking like another dry cold front, as rain chances remain below 10%. Taking a closer look, PWAT values with the frontal passage will be around 1 inch. Ensemble forecast soundings during the expected passage show a dry atmospheric profile, further pointing to little rain potential. With the passage of this front, more dry continental air will advect into the region, which will keep our minRH values near or below 30%. Behind the front, enhanced fire weather conditions will be possible.

Temperatures through next week will be seasonably warm with high remaining in the low to mid 80s and lows around 50.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the rest of the TAF period. Surface winds will remain light and from the north- northeast below 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Winds will remain calm and mainly from the northeast for the rest of today and into Friday. Starting on Saturday, winds will start to increase and will become more easterly as the pressure gradient begins to increase. Small craft headlines will likely be needed this weekend for the open waters. With the increase in easterly winds, we could see coastal flooding impacts, with P-ETSS showing high tide values close to 2 feet above MHHW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The main concern remains fire weather for the region as the ongoing drought continues. MinRH values are a concern, with values near or below 30%. Fuels are also very dry with KBDI values higher than 600, with some areas well into the 700s. The main limiting factor is light winds, with 20-foot wind speeds less than 10 mph. If winds start to trend higher, then fire headlines will be likely.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.