textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Conditions will remain somewhat favorable for the development of fires through the remainder of this week and into the weekend due to low humidity and drought/abnormally dry conditions across most of the area.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Overall, the pattern through the week will not change much. Initially, we remain in dry northwesterly flow aloft, which taking a look outside the clear skies represents this pattern beautifully. There is a ridge starting to nudge eastward from northern portions of Mexico to south Texas. As this feature moves closer, daytime highs will gradually increase through late week with this upper high moving closer. With surface high pressure also trying to build into the region, surface winds will remain light, which is great news from a fire weather perspective. RH values are near critical values especially southwest Mississippi and northern Florida Parishes. However, lackluster winds are keeping us from needed RFWs. That said, through the week there will still be a few fires likely breakout during the afternoon, but again with lackluster winds controlling them should be a bit easier with only limited spread. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

The long term starts with the region still under dry northerly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an elongated upper ridge over the ArkLaTex/Red River Valley. This will promote the ongoing pattern from the short term period...dry conditions. Even drier during the afternoon due to stronger surface heating and mixing. And also continued mostly above average temperatures given the proximity of the highest heights. By this point, low level flow looks to start increasing out of the east as pressure gradient across much of the region begins to tighten with a surface low developing off the southeast Florida Coast. This will need to be watched going into the long term as dry conditions (RH and antecedent conditions) could lead to enhanced fire danger where the winds are the strongest. The synoptic pattern begins to change at the ridge breaks down as an upper level trough begins to dig over the central plains right at the period ends early Tuesday morning. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. At most locations, winds will be near or below 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

High pressure will remain centered well off to the north through the workweek continuing the easterly flow over the northern Gulf. Winds are slowly relaxing with offshore winds expected to remain elevated through early tomorrow. Exercise caution headlines will remain necessary across the outer waters through tonight. Conditions should become more benign with time as winds easing below headline criteria across all waters. With persistent easterly flow, seas will remain elevated as an easterly swell develops. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.