textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 - A cold front will bring rain and thunderstorm chances to the area Monday night through Tuesday night. A few strong storms are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

- A significant cool down, to near normal, for Thanksgiving Day into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Upper trough over the Appalachians, with a shortwave upstream over Missouri at mid-morning. An upper low was over the eastern Pacific to the south of Los Angeles. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary was moving into the northwest corner of our CWA, from Brookhaven to near Opelousas and Lake Charles. There were one or two showers ahead of the boundary between Baton Rouge and Lafayette. Temperatures were in the mid and upper 70s at late morning with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dew points just to the northwest of the frontal boundary drop off about 10 degrees.

The weak frontal boundary will gradually drift through the area this afternoon and tonight, and can't rule out a few showers through early evening, but even 20 percent coverage looks like overkill. Airmass will gradually dry out with dew points in the 50s across most of the area tomorrow.

While the airmass will have some cooler and drier air associated with it, that'll be balanced out tomorrow by abundant sunshine to likely produce highs in the upper 70s, still about 10 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The West Coast trough/low will move into the southern Rockies by Monday, then lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Upper ridging will shift eastward to Florida by that point. The upper pattern will remain progressive through the end of the week, with an upper trough shifting to the East Coast by Friday.

The lead shortwave moving from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes will push another frontal boundary toward the area Monday night and Tuesday. This will bring a better chance of rain (compared to the current front) Monday night through Tuesday night. We'll have to monitor that system a little, as there will be enough instability for at least some strong thunderstorms, although the more favorable conditions will probably be to our northwest and north.

As the upper trough deepens over the Great Lakes, it should reinforce the front and push it through the area on Wednesday, bringing drier and considerably cooler air to the area for Thanksgiving and the weekend. Even with the cooler airmass, daytime highs will only cool down to around normal for late November during Thanksgiving Day into Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Any remaining MVFR ceilings should improve to VFR by late afternoon, with mainly VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Winds are expected to remain near or below 10 knots this weekend, as a high pressure system over the eastern Gulf becomes more dominant over the waters. However, another system will once again push winds and seas higher Monday afternoon. Southerly flow should increase back into the 15 to 20 knot range over this period. Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will also develop over the waters as this next storm system moves through. After a frontal passage late Wednesday, winds will increase out of the north to around 15 to 20 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 51 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 BTR 54 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 54 76 52 77 / 10 0 0 10 MSY 61 77 60 79 / 10 0 0 10 GPT 58 77 55 76 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 55 77 51 77 / 10 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.