textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through at least Thursday. The ongoing drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and light to moderate winds will lead to potential for some fire spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Although winds will ease today, wind speeds are expected rise once again over most of the coastal waters later today into Thursday causing additional small craft advisories possibly by Thursday. - Minor coastal flooding is likely along the Mississippi gulf coast tonight. A coastal flood advisory is now in effect for Hancock County, but the advisory may be extended to include other counties/parishes over the next few nights.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A shortwave ridge axis will pass over the region tonight and tomorrow and this will help to reinforce the clear skies and low humidity values we have seen the past several days. PWATS will remain near the 10th percentile for this of year through tomorrow afternoon, and have opted to continue using NBM 10th percentile values for dewpoints through then. Temperatures will maintain the larger than average diurnal range with highs easily warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s before quickly cooling a good 25 to 30 degrees during the overnight hours.

Friday will be a day of transition to a more unsettled weather pattern as the shortwave ridge axis quickly pulls to the east and a broader trough over the Four Corners begins to eject into the southern plains states. Winds will shift to a more onshore component in response to a developing low pressure system over Texas and Gulf moisture will start to feed back into the area. Most of the moisture advection on Friday will occur in the low levels, and a strong mid-level capping inversion will remain in place due to continued drier and warmer air between 700 and 500mb. PWATS by Friday night will rise to near the 75th percentile, or around 1.5 inches, and cloud cover will be on the increase. Despite the increase in moisture, rain activity will remain confined offshore through Friday night due the strong mid-level capping inversion and lack of instability. Temperatures will climb back into the low 80s Friday afternoon, but the increasing humidity will keep lows warmer in the 60s for Friday night.

Heading into Halloween day and night, much needed rainfall will move into the area. This rainfall will form beneath a region of enhanced forcing aloft associated with the passage of the shortwave trough axis from the southern plains states through the Mississippi Valley. Although the majority of the rainfall will be in the form of light to moderate showers, there continues to be a risk of some isolated thunderstorm activity forming over the area Saturday afternoon. This is due some cooling aloft that will allow allow mid- level lapse rates to steepen to around 6.0 to 6.5 C/KM resulting in surface based CAPE rising to near 1000 J/KG for Saturday afternoon and evening. PWATS will be near the 90th percentile or 1.75 inches on Saturday, so some heavier downpours could accompany the storms that form. Fortunately, shear parameters will remain very limited with bulk shear of less than 30 knots expected during the period of peak instability. This will keep any thunderstorm activity on the weaker side. Overall, rain chances will be in the 70 percent range Saturday into Saturday night and rainfall totals could approach an inch by Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The shortwave trough will continue to push east of the area on Sunday with lingering showers expected over the region in the morning hours. Increasing negative vorticity advection and subsidence in the afternoon hours will lead to quickly clearing skies and rain chances falling to near zero. This increasing subsidence aloft will be related to another shortwave ridge building in from the west. In the low levels, the wind field will remain southerly, so overall humidity values will be little changed and temperatures will remain above normal for Sunday and Monday. Highs will easily climb into the low to mid 80s and lows will only dip into the 60s each day and night.

There are differences between the model solutions for Tuesday with the GFS being far more progressive with a strong longwave trough axis and associated cold front diving into the Plains states. The ECMWF and Canadian both have a slower system that does not move through until Wednesday. Given the differences in timing with this system, have opted to stick with the NBM deterministic forecast for Election Day which results in overcast skies and scattered showers moving back into the area for Tuesday and Tuesday night in advance of the approaching trough axis and front. Model soundings show limited instability at this time, so thunderstorm development is not anticipated. Temperatures will remain warmer than average with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Largely VFR conditions will remain in place at the terminals through tomorrow as a dry and stable high pressure system resides over the region. However, there is a chance that some patchy fog could form near HUM between 11z and 13z tomorrow beneath a very weak inversion, and have included a mention of 5 mile visibilities for that time period.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters through the upcoming weekend and into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However, the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Smaller craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the open Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor coastal flooding of up to one foot above ground level for east facing shores starting tonight and continuing into the weekend. There will be some passing showers and a few thunderstorms for Saturday and Sunday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through, but no significant impacts to maritime activities are expected from the weak thunderstorms that do develop.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ086.

GM...None.