textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday and Tuesday. Any storms will be very slow moving and may generate enough rain to cause localized flooding in poorly drained and low lying areas.

- Heat index values will climb to around 105 each day, but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

- Into next weekend temperatures will increase into the mid to upper 90s and this will push the heat index higher and possibly into the range requiring heat headlines. More on this as we move through the week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Today we have a weak tropical wave approaching the area from just out in the Gulf. As this feature comes onshore, starting mid- afternoon or so, it will trigger a bit more convection than yesterday. Influence from this feature will continue into tomorrow and then rain chances will decrease somewhat.

We see temperatures ranging between the mid 70s for overnight lows to afternoon highs in the low 90s. Humidity levels are forecasted be typical and will carry the feels-like temps into the 100-105 range. The afternoon temperatures will be dependent on exact timing and placement of any storms that pop up and drop rain on a given location.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Conditions in the long term have not changed since the last discussion so it will stand with little to no change. Stacked high to the west and Bermuda high to the east will be our extended focus. The Bermuda high to start the extended time frame will keep precip numbers in the normal category for August, but this will begin to slowly change. Looking at model solutions yesterday, there were some questions of ridge extension to the east from the stacked high over the SW CONUS. This looks like it will occur and a bit different than was previously advertised, which was the main inquiry. The TUTT low moving west this evening approaching the Bahamas will eventually move through the gulf then into the western gulf coast then start moving NW as the SW high gets displaced and moves to the east. This begins to occur by mid week. As the high moves east, our precip numbers will slowly lower getting close to zero by the end of the week. The high basically trades places with the TUTT low by Sat as the TUTT low will be found over west TX and the high will be found over northern MS/AL. This should all but alleviate precip chances and bring the thermostat upward with a few locations over the NW or western extent of the area getting uncomfortably close to that century mark. The gulf coast of TX will find sea brz development moving far inland while we will be stuck at the bottom side of the mid/upper high which means if we are to get any cooling from storms they would have to develop to our east and migrate westward on the bottom side of the high. This may actually occur by next weekend giving us higher precip numbers by Sunday or the first of the week after, but that is way too far out to peel the layers back at this point. [TE/Schlotz]

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

All locations at VFR conditions through the period and expected to remain so for the forecast period. For this afternoon, slight chances of thunderstorms are notable here but are a low probability so are not coded. A greater chance of storms exists tomorrow and are handled by PROB30 coding.

MARINE

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

As high pressure remains in place and centered east of the area we will continue to see winds around 5-10 kts varying between southerly and easterly with seas of 1 to 2 feet in place across all of the waters. By midweek wind direction transitions to a more southwesterly, but sea surface conditions remain the same. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up each day in the early morning hours before moving inland by the afternoon hours. These storms will produce lightning strikes, heavy downpours, a few waterspouts, and locally higher winds and waves. Overall, a very typical pattern will be in place for early to mid August.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.