textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1219 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
- Wind gusts may approach 30 mph through this afternoon. - Warmer than average temperatures this week.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Very pleasant conditions will be in place for the rest of Mardi Gras as a broad area of high pressure settles over the region. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the period with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will cool into the 50s tonight and tomorrow night, but a persistent onshore flow Tuesday night will push lows up into the upper 50s and lower 60s that night. Some cloud cover will develop late tonight over the area as an elevated temperature inversion forms, but this will quickly clear by tomorrow afternoon. Similar conditions are expected for Monday and Tuesday nights.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
Warmer than average temperatures will be the main story in the extended period. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above average each day as temperatures climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s. A few locations may even approach the mid 80s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be near the average high for this time of year with readings only dipping into the 60s Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night. These warm and humid conditions may support some fog and cloud cover development each night. A weak front will slip through the area on Saturday, and this will allow temperatures to cool back into the 50s for Saturday night. There will be also be a low chance of shower development on Friday and Saturday as the weak front moves in from the north, but overall a continued dry stretch of weather is expected.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
VFR conditions will be the rule at most of the terminals this afternoon into this evening. However, an MVFR stratus deck of around 2000 to 2500 feet will persist at MCB as an upper level low pressure system passes by. Later tonight, a strengthening elevated inversion will allow for stratus to gradually expand and build down to between 800 and 1500 feet at all of the terminals. These lower ceilings will linger through the morning hours tomorrow before conditions quickly improve in the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026
A passing low pressure system will keep hazardous winds and seas in place today. Winds will exceed 20 knots and waves will approach 7 feet at times over the open Gulf water through the evening hours. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Sunday evening. High pressure will then settle over the waters tonight and remain in place through Tuesday. Light winds of less than 10 knots and calmer seas of 3 feet or less can be expected. By mid-week, the high will shift to the east and a persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will develop. These conditions will last through the end of the week.
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
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