textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Near record warmth through this weekend. - Increased rain chances this weekend. A few storms could provide much- needed rain to localized areas.

- Nightly fog development is possible through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Performed a forecast update late this afternoon to bring in the latest guidance/obs trends. Still got some light showers out mainly along and west of I-55. This was in response to subtle dynamic/WAA and moisture advection/low-level confluence into the region that was diurnally/thermodynamically enhanced, but as the sun sets we'll see this support wane and all activity should diminish. Next focus becomes on the potential for patchy fog tonight. Getting stronger signals across coastal MS and offshore SE LA from recent guidance, but will take a closer look later this evening. Another warm one tomorrow, did bump highs up slightly closer to verification trends (50th percentile) having many areas reach close at or near record highs. We'll dive deeper more into everything here later this evening. KLG

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

An upper level ridge is currently centered just off the east coast of Florida and is expanded across most of the Gulf of America and southeastern US coastal States. Upstream, a shortwave trough is moving east across the Central Plains while a more established trough is tracking through the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, these features are reflected by a ridge over the western Atlantic and southeastern states and a stalled frontal boundary extending from Texas northeastward into Illinois. This places the local area along the northwestern periphery of the ridge, removed from stronger large-scale forcing associated with the Plains shortwave. However, persistent onshore flow across southeast Louisiana and the northern Gulf has advected deeper low-level moisture inland this morning, with PWs increasing from near 1 inch to over 1.5". Daytime heating combined with this moisture increase has and continues to support scattered convection, primarily focused along a low-level moisture convergence axis west of I-55. With peak heating now passing, convective coverage should continue to diminish through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening.

As precipitation ends tonight, areas of light fog may develop late this evening into early Thursday morning as dewpoints remain in the mid 60s. Dewpoints exceeding nearshore water temperatures will also support the development of sea fog across portions of the coastal waters. Stratus deck overnight should limit the potential for widespread dense fog but localized visibility reductions remain possible. Aside from isolated coastal showers on Thursday, most of the area should remain dry as the Plains shortwave lifts northeast and mid-level ridging modestly strengthens across the Gulf region. Temperatures will remain above seasonal normals with highs generally in the lower 80s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Rising mid-level heights will promote a continued warming trend into the weekend, with temperatures trending well above early March normals. Forecast highs approach the mid to upper 80s at some locations, nearing daily record values at a few climate sites, though current forecast highs remain slightly below record thresholds. At the same time, increasing moisture and weak disturbances moving through the Central Plains may support increasing rain chances locally. Global guidance varies on timing and placement of these features but generally supports the development of scattered convection across portions of the forecast area late week into the weekend. Given the expected pattern, rain coverage may become similar to what was observed today, with scattered convection affecting portions of the CWA during peak heating periods. This rainfall could provide beneficial moisture to relatively dry soils across the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Ongoing -SHRA mainly across western terminals early this evening will continue to diminish revealing low clouds/stratus through tonight. Will monitor for patchy FG potential early morning, but for now greatest probabilities remain across eastern terminals (coastal Mississippi) where patchy dense fog could be possible for a few hours early tomorrow morning. Otherwise, quiet tonight. We'll see a low chance of a passing SHRA or TSRA tomorrow during the daytime hours between 18-00Z, but coverage may be limited. Introduced greatest probs to terminals mentioning PROB30's.

MARINE

Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The potential for sea fog to impact the coastal waters will remain in place through the week as a persistent southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots maintains dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s over the nearshore waters. Fog conditions are possible tonight though a bit challenging to more decisively point towards any one portion of the marine areas. This fog may turn dense at times and impact navigational operations. Outside of the fog concern, a slight tightening of the pressure gradient in on Friday will bring onshore winds right near Exercise Caution criteria. Those conditions are likely to persist through the upcoming weekend.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.