textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 454 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Rain chances decrease today before a mostly dry cold front moves through Wednesday, bringing a shift to northerly winds and noticeably lower humidity. Relatively quiet and dry weather continues late in the week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The trough moving through this morning is keeping things interesting late into the night as new cells form off outflow boundaries. This should be the last bit of activity this morning as the upper/mid level trough will swing through and will be east of the area later this morning. There will still be a few sh/ts around today and these could also be strong/severe but won't be near as many as yesterday. The upper high over northern Mexico will meander around for the remainder of the week but at least in the short term, the massive upper trough over the west coast will move east nudging this high toward the coast of TX and NW gulf for the next few days. The 850mb reflection will remain over the deep south as well and will bridge with the high moving in behind a cold front Wed into Wed night. This will effectively drop precip numbers down to all but zero. The front will not last long, and will be more of a dew pt boundary than any real cool down. But this will help morning temps fall into the 60s for the northern half of the area for Thu and Fri. The dry air will filter back out and the moisture will replace it again for the end of the week.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

To end the work week, we will start to see the upper level bridge retrograde a little back westward as the troughing over the east coast deepens. We will continue to see lowering dew points heading into the early part of the weekend as northeasterly flow continues to bring drier air into the region. Early morning low temperatures are noticeably a tick cooler, with most northern areas in the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile afternoon highs will still be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the long term forecast period as we still feel the effects of the upper ridge. Heading into the later part of the weekend, we will switch back to southeasterly flow which will bring moisture back in.

In terms of precipitation, the drier air mass that moves in towards the end of the week is shown in the PoPs which don't get above ~10% for onshore areas through Sunday. Offshore marine areas may see some isolated convection, but even that looks to be very limited. Just outside the long term period, we may start to see PoPs creep back up with the moisture recovery that starts Sunday.

HRL

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 454 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

There will be less TSRA around than yesterday and probs are low enough that we should be able to show VFR for all terminals, but that is not to say there will be no storms around and if any particular site gets a visit, it would drop levels to IFR quickly. Any activity that develops is expected to begin weakening after sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Light winds and relatively low seas continue through Thursday outside of scattered thunderstorms, which could produce brief strong and erratic wind gusts. A cold front moves through the coastal waters Wednesday into Wednesday night, followed by strengthening northerly to northeasterly winds and building seas Thursday. Conditions gradually improve late in the week as high pressure settles across the area.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.