textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions will persist through much of the week. Winds and seas will be highest today. Inexperienced mariners and those operating small craft should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. - Minor coastal flooding of east-facing shores and tidal lakes is expected again during high tide cycle this afternoon. This could result in upwards of 1 foot of water inundating low-lying roads.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Quite a bit warmer this morning than the last few with winds continuing to bring in a bit more moisture into the region from the east and east-southeast. Winds remain elevated along the immediate coast, especially Gulfport that is seeing some winds in excess of 30 knots. The moderate to strong easterly flow will continue through the day today with the strongest winds right along the immediate coast. Guidance is still trying to ping some lower-end POPs/QPF right along the coast. The easterly flow and perhaps some slight coastal convergence/meso boundaries will help generate an isolated shower or two during peak heating. This will be the only rain chances through the period.

The strong surface high bringing the moderate to strong easterly flow over the northern Gulf will begin to move east allowing pressure gradient to relax just a bit. Aloft, some modest upper level ridging takes shape allowing for a gradual increase in temperatures through the weekend. Outside of this, Spring Tides and the long easterly fetch will help cause some minor coastal flooding this afternoon during high tides along eastern facing shores as well as the tidal lakes. Tomorrow the Spring Tides should be quite a bit lower and despite the continued (slightly weaker) fetch, levels should be a bit less of an impact. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Sunday evening, upper ridging will extend from the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf northeastward to the coast of the Carolinas. By Wednesday, the ridge will be centered more over the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula. The tracks of shortwaves from the western trough are expected to remain northwest of our area through Wednesday. Surface high pressure will remain from near Bermuda to the Bahamas across much of the northern Gulf. This will generally keep the winds coming out of the east or southeast through the period. For most of the period, forecast soundings show only limited moisture above 850 mb. Precipitable water values remain near or below 1 inch for much of that time, with 1 inch being pretty much right at the daily mean. Even the wettest forecast soundings only briefly reach the 75th percentile (1.25 inches).

This pattern should keep most of the area dry through the period. Although one or two showers could occur on pretty much any day, the only days that will have a mention in the grids are next Wednesday/Thursday. Rainfall amounts during the long term period are expected to be less than one-tenth of an inch for most areas, with a totally dry period not out of the question. Well above normal temperatures (5-10F above) will continue with highs mainly in the 80s, although the immediate coast might fall a degree or two short depending on timing of the daily sea breeze. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s. (RW)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Mostly VFR through the cycle. This morning there has been brief MVFR CIG reductions for GPT, MSY, NEW and ASD. These reductions should remain brief so covered with TEMPOs through 14z. Otherwise, the main story will be moderate easterly flow with some coastal terminals seeing wind gusts up to 25kts or stronger at times, especially this afternoon. Easterly winds are forecast to relax a bit after sunset this evening. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A strong high pressure over the northwest Atlantic continues to produce a moderate to strong easterly fetch over the northern Gulf. Hazardous marine conditions are ongoing with Small Craft Advisories in effect through today and into early Friday. Wave heights in the unprotected open waters will be in the range of 7 to 10 feet during the peak of these winds. Conditions will only modestly improve going into the weekend. There will likely be at least cautionary headlines needed right into the start of the new workweek as east and southeast winds remain at 15 to 20 knots at times. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-060-069-070-076>078-080-082-084-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530- 532-534.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ536-538- 557.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT Friday for GMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532- 534.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ538-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT Friday for GMZ552-555-570- 572-575-577.