textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1058 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the work week with potential for at least patchy dense fog this morning and Friday morning.

- Next substantial rain will be late in the week and into the weekend as a cold front approaches and moves through the local area. Rain totals should remain fairly low most places, and likely will not result in much, if any, drought relief.

- A significant cool down is forecast Sunday into the beginning of the next work week. The coldest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions for some northern areas. Those with sensitive vegetation should keep an eye on the forecast, especially given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their cool season dormancy.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1058 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Biggest challenge in the short term continues to be trying to determine if fog will develop and, if it does, how dense it will be. Fog was generally patchy in nature last night, only developing in areas where winds were able to calm more. Should see a somewhat similar situation tonight with a bit more coverage of fog overall, but any denser fog remaining patchy. As of 10p, generally seeing fog around the river and in some coastal areas as dewpoints have now recovered into the upper 60s at several coastal sites. Based pm the latest observations and trends, have issued a dense fog advisory for areas generally southeast of a line from Houma to Hammond to Picayune through 15z Thursday. Conditions look to be be more favorable for more widespread dense fog Thursday night into Friday morning as a front sinks into the area causing the low level wind field to relax with moisture pooling ahead of the front.

Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible Thursday evening well ahead of a cold front, with better chances in the 30- 60% range after midnight as the front approaches the local area. By the time the front moves into the local area late Thursday night/Friday morning, mid and upper level flow will be nearly parallel to the front, causing it to slow or stall across the area. The front will remain nearly stationary across the area through Friday night, with continued scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms through the same period.

Despite the relatively high rain chances, rainfall totals are still expected to be generally less than one half inch as an area-average. Model forecast soundings indicate precipitable water values should increase to around 1.2-1.4" by Friday, which is actually around the 90th percentile for this time of year. However, lift looks like it will be hard to come by. Jet dynamics aren't very favorable with the entrance region of the 850mb jet moving away from the local area and slightly divergent flow across the frontal boundary. Regardless, with the amount of moisture in place, daytime heating should be enough to fire off scattered to numerous light showers Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1058 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The weekend will be a tale of two days with Saturday being characterized by continued warmer than normal conditions and scattered to numerous showers and a few storms, while Sunday will see a substantial cooling and drying of the airmass.

The change will be thanks to a fast moving upper level disturbance that will dive southward into the middle Mississippi Valley during the day Saturday forcing a strong cold front into and through the area Saturday evening/night. In the wake of this cold front, we will see about a 20 degree difference in temperatures from Saturday to Sunday.

The cold high pressure will settle into the area Monday and Tuesday with temperatures falling about 7-10 degrees below normal. Afternoon highs will struggle to rise much above 60, with potential for light freeze conditions across northern areas Monday and Tuesday mornings. It currently looks like the coldest morning will be Tuesday, with lows forecast near or below freezing for areas generally along/north of the I-10/12 corridor. Given the recent warm spell and the fact that some plants have already started to green up after their winter dormant period, freeze headlines will be needed if the forecast holds. The biggest concern will be for those without access to warm shelter as well as potential impacts to sensitive vegetation.

By midweek, the high will shift eastward, with winds turning southeasterly again and a fast moderation of the air mass.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Terminals were generally at MVFR or VFR at forecast issuance, with the exception of KGPT, where ceilings were at FL002. Warm air advection was stronger overnight than anticipated, which produced low stratus instead of fog. There's at least a limited threat of IFR conditions over the next hour or two before heating raises cloud bases closer to FL030. VFR conditions are expected at most terminals for the afternoon hours, before MVFR conditions return after sunset. The question for early Friday morning is whether temperatures cool off enough to allow for dense fog to form. This morning, the critical temperature for dense fog looked to be around 65F, and overnight lows tonight are expected to be right around that range. Won't deviate from the visibility guidance for right now, but a shift in tonight's overnight lows by a couple of degrees will be the difference between MVFR conditions and LIFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1058 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

As high pressure continues to shift eastward, a moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will persist through the end of the week. Patchy dense fog will will also be possible each night/morning through at least Friday. A strong cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in again behind it. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will cause winds to strengthen and turn offshore again Saturday night with small craft advisories likely necessary through at least Sunday evening.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ058>060- 064>070-076>080-087>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555.