textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- Warm with showers and thunderstorms today into Sunday. There is the potential for severe weather as well as locally heavy rainfall ahead of a cold frontal passage that occurs on Sunday.

- Winds will remain elevated for marine areas today. Northerly winds behind a cold front on Sunday have necessitated Small Craft Advisories beginning Sunday evening, which could continue through early next week.

- A prolonged period of easterly winds next week could increase the coastal flood threat on east facing shorelines by mid week.

UPDATE

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Update for the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for all coastal waters Sunday night and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Upper ridging was over both the Atlantic and Pacific Coasts this morning. An upper low was over Minnesota with a trough southward into Arkansas and eastern Texas. At the surface, the Bermuda high extended westward across the eastern Gulf. Low pressure was over Wisconsin with a frontal boundary to near St. Louis and the Dallas- Fort Worth area.

This morning's LIX upper air sounding had a precipitable water value between the 75th and 90th percentile climatologically (1.35 inches). Mostly cloudy skies were occurring across the area, with temperatures mainly mid 70s to lower 80s and dew points around 70. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms were noted on radar from about Interstate 55 westward at 1 PM CDT.

Moisture levels are increasing today to 1.4 to 1.6 inches, which is near or exceeding the 90th percentile. The heavy rain threat today should mainly be across the western half of the area, but can't be entirely ruled out anywhere. CAPE values are expected to be in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but shear is generally going to be comparatively weak, 20-25 knots. As we've seen the last few days, severe weather can't entirely be ruled out. The main threat will be just ahead of the cold front, which should move through the area late tonight or Sunday morning. Some rain, mainly light, could linger behind the front during the day Sunday, and possibly into the evening over coastal areas. While most areas shouldn't see more than an inch or two of rain with this system, there is at least a small threat that boundary mergers could produce a few spots of locally heavy rain where 2 to 4 inches of rain or more could occur. If that happens over an urban area, it will cause problems.

Temperatures ahead of the front will remain above normal today, reaching into the 80s for much of the area away from the coast. Overnight lows tonight will be close to 70 ahead of the front, while areas behind the front will be closer to 60. Highs tomorrow will likely be near 70 or even upper 60s northwest and mid 70s east. Lows Sunday night are expected in the 40s northwest and 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The cold front will remain near or offshore of the lower portions of the southeast Louisiana coastal parishes on Monday. That should limit any rainfall to those lower portions of the coastal parishes. Tuesday should be dry across the entire area, although clouds could linger along the coast. A southern stream shortwave will approach the area on Wednesday, with some question how far north to spread precipitation back into the area. Model solutions have flipped from yesterday, when the ECMWF was pushing rain back into the area, now it's the GFS with that solution. High pressure tries to build back into the area for next weekend.

Monday and Monday night will remain on the cool side before temperatures return to near or above normal levels. There's much less of a spread in guidance temperatures than what there has been over the last several days, giving more confidence in the NBM solutions.

With a prolonged period of easterly winds forecast next week, that would increase the possibility of coastal flooding on east facing shorelines, possibly as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

MVFR to VFR cigs across the terminals. Threat of TSRA will increase this afternoon, and likely to be impacting KBTR as the forecast goes into effect. TSRA threat will spread eastward during the afternoon, and continue overnight with potential IFR or lower conditions. General MVFR conditions expected overnight, becoming IFR by sunrise at most terminals. Cold front should move through most or all terminals prior to sunrise Sunday, but low conditions (primarily ceilings) could linger through at least midday Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will remain over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching front. Behind the front, north to northeast winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots for most waters, and Small Craft Advisories will be in effect Sunday night and Monday. The current wind forecast would indicate hazardous marine conditions for most or all of the workweek next week, as high pressure becomes anchored to our northeast. With a prolonged period of easterly winds forecast next week, that would increase the possibility of coastal flooding on east facing shorelines, possibly as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.