textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 906 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Torrential rainfall possible with any stronger storms through this weekend. Rainfall rates of 2-5" per hour are possible and could easily overwhelm drainage systems.

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible today with the greatest threat being strong gusty winds.

- High rain chances through the next several days. Areal 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches

UPDATE

Issued at 906 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

It hasn't been a question of whether sufficient moisture would be in place or even if torrential rain would occur. The challenge has been having enough confidence that widespread flash flooding would potentially impact the CWA vs isolated events. Satellite imagery shows cooling cloudtops from developing MCS thats moving into SW LA. As this system moves across the CWA, most concerned with intense rainfall rates overwhelming drainage systems and leading to flash flooding. Thus, have a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of SELA as well as SW and coastal MS. Intentionally extended the watch through Sunday as yet another impulse is forecast to move through the local are and bring continued widespread heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The overall pattern remains intact as the active upper level flow remains with a series of H5 impulses/vorts that continue to to develop and slide northeast within the flow generally once every 12 to 18 hrs or so. Timing of these impulses has been a bit tricky, but anytime peak daytime heating and an impulse are timed well expect more widespread convection (like today). Hydro concerns will be the primary concern through the weekend and into early next week. PWATs just shy of 2.0" will make for some efficient rainfall rates. Backbuilding storms especially those over urbanized areas or locations that have already over performed in terms of rainfall recently will be most at risk through the short term period. Southerly surface flow will continue to help filter warm moist air into the region. Severe weather threat will be rather conditional, with today having the best odds of a strong to severe storm. Robust surface based instability will be around, but DCAPE values over 1,000 J/kg suggests a couple severe wind gusts will be possible. Otherwise, temperatures will be warm into the middle 80s, but may be held down depending on exact timing of convective initiation. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A persistence forecast is the name of the game in the long term period next week. In the upper levels, a trough centered over the southern Plains and Texas will gradually shift to the east and turn into a closed low over the Gulf South by Thursday and Friday. This pattern will keep increased upper level forcing over the area with convective impulses being largely driven by embedded regions of enhanced vorticity and upper level forcing that wrap around the base of the trough and closed low. Thus, the wet and unsettled weather pattern we have been in recently will continue through the end of next week.

Model soundings continue to imply that ample moisture and instability will be in place for the upper level lift to tap into. Preciptiable water values will range between 1.75 and 2 inches each day, or between the 75th and daily max values for this time of year. MLCAPE will range from 1500 to 2000 J/KG each day which is more than enough instability to deep updraft development. High freezing. levels near 14k feet and warm 500mb temperatures around -8C will support warm rain processes within these deeper updrafts, and this will allow for very rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour to accompany the strongest storms. Given the already saturated soil conditions, flash flooding will continue to be a concern each day in the long term period. Storm motion and any potential for back building and training along convergent boundaries will be the primary culprits for excessive rainfall amounts that will lead to flash flooding as overall storm motion should be on the order of 10 to 15 knots each day next week. Thus, the flood threat will remain highly localized. The severe weather risk remains fairly low next week with the only main concern being the threat of wet microbursts developing with the deepest convective updrafts. A brief and very weak tornado may also develop where storms intersect with any pre- existing boundaries, but this threat is significantly lower than the wind threat. Temperatures will be near average through the period with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. (PG)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Outside of convection mostly VFR conditions expected with the only exception being early this morning where low CIGs and slightly lower VIS will be possible over the terminals that recently experienced rain. Similar to days past, the best convection potential will happen during the afternoon and early evening hours during peak heating, but as we are seeing this morning scattered showers and storms could develop just about anytime in this pattern. Otherwise, light to moderate southerly flow will continue. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A large area of high pressure will remain anchored over the western Atlantic throughout the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow through the time. Winds should generally right around 10 knots. Periods of near 15 knots possible, especially in open Gulf waters. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily isolated to scattered showers will be possible each day, however, the bulk of the coverage will remain inland. With any thunderstorms locally hazardous winds and waves can be expected. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.