textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the next several days. Chances of severe weather will be marginal, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle.

- Heat stress will be an impact throughout the forecast period with near heat advisory conditions each afternoon. The hottest timeframe looks to be the latter half of this week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Storm coverage will be more widespread for the next several days. We always give the when, where and how much, but this is the place we can give the why. We will discuss features at the H3 level since this is where one can see the things best that are causing our weather to occur this week. This is ofcourse reflected downward, but we will keep it as simple as possible. A very minor upper short wave trough is rotating through currently causing moisture to stack vertically wich in turn causes the PW values to increase. And the higher the PW values, the heavier and more widespread the rainfall can be. Normally, this feature moving through would only give one maybe two days of widespread storm activity, but the larger synoptic upper trough will then come in behind this, since the short wave is actually moving through the long wave trough, helping to continue the higher PW values. The upper trough stands in the flow(like a standing wave), which makes it stall or actually move very slowly eastward Monday through Tuesday. The axis of this trough actually moves near our area Wed. This means it takes 3 full days for this trough axis to move from the Texarkana region to here. The stronger winds finally round the base of this trough and cause it to become progressive, speeding it up toward the east coast. Wed will be our transfer day meaning our PW values will fall and there won't be any dynamic load aloft to help storms flourish. This will cause only one thing to kickstart kinematics for storm development...buoyancy. This is what we have been working with over the last few days until today. But this single driver will be back possibly by Wed but surely as we move into the latter half of this week bringing out daily ration of storms to around the 30% level once again. Each day will bring with it the possibility of strong to severe storms. The chances are low for any one location, but dry air near the H7 level will definitely lend to one or two of these storms having strong to severe downdrafts causing wet microbursts. Waterspouts are almost a given in these environments, and this has been the case lately. But with added help aloft, some of these could form over marine areas and move inland before dissipating. When buoyancy is the only driver, waterspouts will normally weaken once they "feel" land, which is to say the flow is disturbed/disrupted due to the land mass causing friction to the flow. With more upper dynamics involved, waterspouts can actually hold togther long enough to reach the coast before decaying. This greatly depends on how strong the dynamic load upstairs is, and today through Wed, it is weak but it is there which means if they reach the coast, they are almost always weak vorticies but can still cause havoc a short distance inland. [TE/DSS]

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Later in the week an H5 ridge will reside over the western portions of the Atlantic, across Florida and into the northeast Gulf. This will place our region in a more active southwesterly flow aloft. The period starts with a weakness over the Midsouth and lower MS River Valley, which signals an uptick in diurnally driven convection across the region. POPs for this time will be slightly above typical CLIMO, especially across southwest MS. And again with the relatively close proximity to the upper ridge temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees higher than average. Within the southwesterly flow aloft, a series of impulses may slide north and east just north of the CWA. Timing will help keep POPs going during peak heating through the start of next weekend. Overall, the summer pattern remains roughly unchanged through the entire long term period. (Frye/Schlotz)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 groups will keep the prevailing groups since there will be more coverage today. Most if not all terminals will be impacted at some time today by TSRA producing at most MVFR conditions temporarily. SHRA and TSRA activity will begin to decay with the loss of daytime heating. Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule.

MARINE

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

High pressure in the area bringing WSW to SW winds generally in the 5-10 knot range; these winds will only generate seas in the 1-2 foot range. Summertime diurnal cycling will bring offshore thunderstorms that will almost assuredly carry waterspout activity as well as increased winds and associated localized heavier seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.