textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM CST Wednesday across land portions of the local area, and noon over waters. The potential for dense fog will continue the next several nights/mornings.

- Isolated showers are possible Wednesday, associated with a quick moving shortwave traversing the area.

- Severe weather possible Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

UPDATE

Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Thick cloud cover has remained over the area through the night and even though this cloud cover is moving east rapidly, there should not be enough time for the BL to cool enough for dense fog to form and we have lowered the dense fog advisory. Fog will form but should stay above 1/2 mile in vis. Marine areas will remain with dense fog this morning and the advisory will stay in these locations.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1147 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Upper ridging over much of the Gulf this evening, with a southern stream shortwave moving across Texas. Ridging was also noted over the Intermountain West, with another low/trough southwest of San Francisco, and another well west of Oregon. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Florida, with a westward extension across the northern Gulf Coast. Low pressure was noted over northern Arkansas, with a front southwestward into Texas. Skies were cloudy across the area this evening with temperatures in the 60s. Any echoes on radar this evening were mainly mid-level moisture, as we aren't seeing any returns below about 8,000 feet.

Main concern for the short term continues to be the potential for fog development the next few nights. With the abundance of mid and high level clouds this evening, and temperatures running 7-10F warmer than this time last night, confidence has diminished considerably over the last few hours in fog developing. If these trends continue, it is entirely possible that we cancel the advisory prior to sunrise.

The Texas shortwave will move across the area late tonight and Wednesday morning, and could produce a few showers, but any rain amounts that do occur should be light. Even after the passage of the shortwave, forecast soundings aren't particularly aggressive in clearing out moisture, so cloud cover could complicate fog development once again Wednesday night. An additional weak shortwave could produce a few showers on Thursday, but once again, rainfall amounts would be light. Thursday night might be a little better potential for fog development than tomorrow night.

Much above normal temperatures will continue, with much of the area verifying above the NBM 50th percentile from last night. Expect that to continue on Wednesday, with 80 degree temperatures not out of the question. Baton Rouge and New Orleans only missed that by a degree on Tuesday. Thursday does look a few degrees cooler, but still in the 70s in many areas. Most lows should be in the 50s the next few nights.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1147 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The main weather impact this forecast period comes this weekend. Global models continue to advertise a pattern that would be favorable for a local cool-season severe weather event. Models depict a pretty unique evolution from today to Friday. There are 2 closed upper lows in the eastern PAC, one west of Oregon and the other farther south west of California. Between midnight and sunrise Wed, these features are likely to become side by side. The 24-36 hours after that is when the fascinating transition takes place. Models show them beginning a Fujiwara interaction and ultimately phase into a single system, coming into the southwest US as a southern stream trough Friday afternoon. What's interesting is to the north is zonal flow, which means the that upper low's eastern progression is mostly carried out via momentum transfer. That definitely does bring a little potential questioning of if models have a great grasp on that feature's eastward speed and thus timing of when it'd reach the CWA.

As this upper low reaches northeast Texas Saturday evening, the base of the trough and attendant midlevel speed max will be spreading inland across southern Louisiana. Surface cyclogenesis/deepening is forecast with the surface low tracking across northern Louisiana into central MS. If this track verifies, much of the forecast area would be in the warm sector by Saturday evening and remain so overnight. Each successive run of the GFS continues to slow down the system's movement, and if that were taken verbatim, it might be after sunrise Sunday before convection reaches the Mississippi coast.

Kinematic fields are impressive, though not uncommon for cool- season severe wx event. A strengthening low-level jet and strong deep-layer flow overspreading the warm sector as the system approaches is generally what models depict. Current guidance supports 50+ kt flow near 850 mb and 60+ kt deep-layer shear, with ample helicity. Looking at the vertical wind profile, definitely not completely unidirectional but moreso about 90 degrees of separation between the surface and 700mb+. All of this would be more than sufficient to support organized convection, with a version of squall line or QLCS with bowing segments.

Instability continues to be what looks like will be the primary limiting factor. Even with surface dewpoints forecast to rise into the low to mid 60s; the nocturnal timing and convective evolution may keep surface-based instability modest. Thats what global models show and meteorologically makes sense. That said, this is the type of high-shear/low-CAPE environment that can still support damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes with forced accent from that upper low being so close to the CWA. The best window of opportunity really hasn't changed much in the last couple days...from around midnight through shortly after sunrise Sunday before convection shifts east into Alabama. Even if thunderstorms don't become severe, it could be fairly windy Saturday night, especially near the coast.

Given the potential for an overnight event on a very busy weekend in terms of Mardi Gras activities, really need to keep a close eye on this one.

Due to the fact this system takes such a low latitude track, we really won't see much of a drop in temperatures behind it. Sure it'll be drier but still looking at highs in the 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Cigs will remain VFR for most terminals with only a few having IFR cigs. Vis will be mainly MVFR to IFR this morning. Although some vis will lower possibly to MVFR dense fog is not expected to be an issue tonight into Thu morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1147 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Concern in the short term (next couple days) will be dense fog development. For the current overnight period, confidence has been diminishing, as low level flow has been fairly weak, and cloud cover remains in place.

Onshore flow will likely be in place all week with high pressure centered generally east of the region. The threat of fog development will be relatively high the next couple days and again this upcoming weekend. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through noon Wednesday, but could be cancelled early if trends continue.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are looking more probable Saturday afternoon into Sunday night, as an area of low pressure tracks from west to east across the Gulf Coast states. We'll continue to monitor

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557.