textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 108 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

- Increased potential for Dense Fog Monday morning. An advisory is in effect for portions of SELA.

- Above normal temperatures will be in place through Friday.

- No rain in this forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

In the upper levels, a broad upper level ridge is centered roughly across southern AZ/NM and northern Mexico but spread across much of the southern US. Shortwaves have been tracking through the northern periphery of that ridge and has one does so tonight, the eastern side of the upper ridge will weaken slightly. What that does is allow surface ridge centered over the eastern Gulf to move in across the northern Gulf coast, right near the local coastal waters. Winds locally will drop and radiational cooling takes place tonight. Model soundings depict this setup with a decent low level inversion developing after midnight. Stronger inversion with llvl saturation in Baton Rouge Metro vs weaker one east of I-55. Confidence decreases at areas along/east of there and thus kept Dense Fog Advisory generally limited to Baton Rouge Metro to Houma, not quite to New Orleans or the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain.

MEFFER

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

As the above mentioned weak shortwave embedded within the northeastern periphery of the ridge passes just northeast of the CWA, a backdoor front does approach the region. However, that airmass won't make it through and temps barely drop from temporary erosion of the eastern side of the ridge aloft.

The center of that upper ridge looks to shift east, closer to the CWA and spread farther east to the Atlantic as the shortwave lifts east. That'll allow temps to moderate and lows/highs warm to 10 to 15 degrees above normal. In addition, strong subsidence from that high pressure dome will continue to keep rain chances out of the forecast for the remainder of the forecast period.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Scattered CU field is developing across SELA and spreading northeastward. Deck heights are just above MVFR/VFR threshold and should lift higher as the afternoon progresses before dissipating with sunset. Areas of light to dense fog looking like will develop Monday morning. Greatest impacts should be west of a line from KHDC to KMSY.

MEFFER

MARINE

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A broad area of high pressure centered over the eastern gulf will keep a prevailing southwesterly wind of around 10 knots in place through Monday. Late Tuesday, a weak front will stall near the coast and may even get into the nearshore waters Tue night. Winds may briefly shift to the north at 5 to 10 knots where the front passes. By Wednesday, southerly flow of 5 to 10 knots and low end seas of 1 to 2 feet will return as high pressure over the eastern Gulf once again becomes the dominant feature. These conditions will last through the end of next week.

MEFFER

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for LAZ034>036- 046>048-056>060-065-083>086.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.