textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

- Patchy fog is forecast to develop both tonight and Saturday night. While dense fog is not currently anticipated, motorists should be prepared for sudden changes in visibility, if traveling during the late night and early morning hours through Sunday morning.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle to latter part of next week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A weak front is currently located near the coast and will continue to slowly drift southward into the northern Gulf through the remainder of today. Behind the front, slightly drier air will move into the area tonight and Saturday. This will allow overnight temperatures to cool a bit more efficiently over the weekend than previous nights and lows should drop generally into the low to mid 50s for northern areas and mid to upper 50s for southern areas. While this is certainly cooler than the previous nights, it's still a solid 7-10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

Afternoon highs will also continue to be anomalously warm, rising into the mid to upper 70s. Some places will likely cross the 80 degree mark each afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the long term as well. As high pressure remains centered east of the local area, southeast winds will continue to bring warm, humid air into the area from the Gulf. By the middle to latter part of the week we could start to see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms. Best chances appear to be Thursday afternoon and especially Friday afternoon as a couple fast-moving shortwaves embedded in the overall southwesterly flow aloft provide additional forcing.

Will also need to monitor fog potential through the week as dewpoints rise back into the 60s. Both radiational and advective processes could be at play. Greatest potential for sea fog will be around the mouth of the MS River where water temperatures are coolest. Elsewhere conditions look much more borderline with water temperature observations currently running in the mid 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the first part of tonight. With lingering low level moisture from this morning's rain, fog is forecast to develop tonight, lowering vis to MVFR levels at most terminals. Have also included TEMPO groups for IFR conditions in the areas where denser fog development seems more likely based on the latest guidance, though confidence in IFR conditions occurring is lower than usual. All terminals should see a return to VFR conditions by mid morning, with light northeasterly winds prevailing through the day Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A weak cold front will further into the Gulf through tonight. Outside of showers and a few thunderstorms associated with this front, conditions will be generally benign across the coastal waters. In the wake of the front, winds will become offshore, but should remain well below headline criteria. High pressure will move quickly eastward over the weekend with winds becoming easterly again by Sunday morning and southeasterly as early as Monday morning.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.