textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Monitoring possible complex of strong/isolated severe storms approaching from the northwest mainly for the afternoon/evening hours today and possibly again Thursday, with greater focus/confidence for areas east of I-55, including coastal Mississippi and adjacent marine waters.

- Strong heat will be back with heat index readings up to 110F starting Sunday into the new workweek with heat advisories becoming increasingly likely this weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1114 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Aloft, northwest flow continues over the region, which is usually a pretty good signal for MCS activity and, indeed, upstream there have been a few areas of storms develop. In additional to a series of H5 impulses, there resides a weak frontal boundary from the Red River Valley to the northeast Gulf. This has been and will be enough to generate additional storm activity. At this juncture, this afternoon looking at overall trends favors south MS including the MS Gulf Coast. This is were both WPC places a slight ERO and SPC put a marginal for severe. The LIX 24/12z RAOB showed a favorable DCAPE (generally greater than 1000 J/KG), which signifies at least a conditional risk for strong damaging wind gusts in the wider and more robust updrafts.

Late Thursday and into Friday a pattern shift will occur with the story becoming less about potential convection and more about increasing temperatures and humidity. An upper level ridge develops over the northern Gulf and moves gradually over our region building from around 590dam to 594dam. With more subsidence and less of a surface convergent zone outside of diurnal boundaries, convection will be tough to find beyond Friday with highs warming well above climo across the board. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1114 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Going later into the weekend and early next week it's going to be hot with above average temperatures as a strong ~596dam ridge builds over the gulf coast states allowing afternoon temperatures to soar. With still wet grounds, the humidity will cause a problem with likely heat headlines needed through much of the long term afternoon hours. The upper ridge late Monday or Tuesday will refocus over the Mid MS River Valley. This will also for at least some slight weakness in the mid and upper levels. Coupled with the diurnal cycle, shower and storms chances will begin to creep up little by little Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, again the primary focus in the long range will be the potentially dangerous heat. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Convective impacts have come to an end in the past hour near GPT, NEW, and MSY, and this will allow for prevailing VFR conditions at all of the terminals through the remainder of the forecast period. However, there is a chance that another area of convection that is currently forming in southeast Oklahoma could impact the terminals around daybreak tomorrow, and this is reflected with PROB30 wording at MCB, HDC, ASD, NEW, and MSY as the western edge of a potential mesoscale convective system passes through. At GPT, two potential rounds of storms could impact the terminal. The first round may form around 08-09z and linger through 11-12z as storms fire up along the landbreeze just offshore and spread inland. The second round would then be the MCS moving in from the northwest after 12z. As is the case at the other terminals, this extended period of convective threats is highlighted by PROB30 wording from 08z to 14z. Any convective threats will be well offshore by 18z.

MARINE

Issued at 1114 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Surface high pressure over the central gulf will continue to promote weak, mainly westerly flow today. The high will move east bringing onshore flow back to the coastal waters late Thursday, which will remain through the weekend. A series of thunderstorm complexes will surge southeast along a stationary inland front through Thursday, causing strong erratic winds in and near these storms as they move offshore. Conditions dry out toward the weekend and winds weaken to light and variable as high pressure moves over the north central gulf. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.