textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 448 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the next several days. Chances of severe weather and heavy rain will be low, a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. Waterspout activity will also be possible over the coastal waters. The next best day for storm development is Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The fcast is so typical for this time of year that we will just give two major themes in this discussion. The first will be what the weather should be for outdoor festivities on the 4th. The second will be the heightened rain chances Sunday through Monday.

The 4th will be very typical for this time of year and there is no way to tell which particular place will get a storm during the day but all activity will begin to decay as the evening progresses. There will still be a few around which could postpone fireworks for those areas, but these should be few and far between. No headlines are expected for heat index values but these numbers will still top out around 105HI for Independance Day.

Sunday through Monday, rain chances rise into the 50% or higher range for daylight hours. The same rhythm will occur with morning storms developing over marine areas with some of these floating ashore around sunrise. This then transfers from marine to land during the daylight hours. The higher chances of rain will come from higher PW values around 2+". There is no dynamic forcing in the mid and upper levels so it will just be left up to bouyancy provided by heating to get things going. As usual, during the summer, one of two of these could get a bit strong even though the risk level is quite low. This will remain a very good environment for waterspout development. But in the absence of dynamic support, they normally fall apart when they move to the coast due to the increased flow friction.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Going into the long term period, the overall pattern will epitomize summer conditions for the north central Gulf Coast. H5 ridge will be around to keep things on the hot side with temperatures across the area warming well into the 90s. Weak southerly winds will maintain a moisture rich low level flow, which will help produce "feels like" temperatures upward of 105F each afternoon. That said, with mesoscale boundaries...sea/lake breeze or eventual outflow there will be isolated to scattered showers and storms each afternoon across the landbased zones and late night and morning hours for the marine zones. Overall, POPs will be around or slightly below CLIMO again because there will be an H5 ridge building into the region, albeit not as strong as the current heat bubble over the Ohio River Valley. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 448 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 groups. Those that do happen to move over any terminal will produce at most MVFR conditions temporarily. Most if not all activity will decay with the loss of daytime heating. Outside any TSRA and light FG where rain has occurred during the day, VFR will be the rule at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Winds will generally be 10kts or less and direction will vary through Saturday. Winds will become southwest and rise to 10 to 15kt as high pressure moves to the southeast gulf Sunday. Winds will remain this way through the middle of next week. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day. A few may be stronger and could produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts, and locally hazardous seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.