textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1025 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Severe weather increasingly likely Saturday evening into Sunday mid-day. Main threats will be damaging winds (60+mph) and lightning. An embedded tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Wind gusts may approach 30 mph late Saturday and into Sunday. - Above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Weak upper level ridging resides over the CWFA and the weak front that pushed through the region on Wednesday is still hanging around the I10 corridor. This feature despite some weak subsidence aloft has kept a good chunk of the region under mostly cloudy conditions today. This will continue through the morning and in fact, low stratus will likely try to build closer to the surface. Guidance has come in a bit more bullish with fog early Friday south of the front. Went ahead and issued a dense fog adv along and south of the I10/12 corridor.

Friday looks similar to Thursday in the sense of more cloudiness hanging around. Cannot rule out a sprinkle or two with the old frontal boundary still roaming around in the northwest flow. Eventually, the ridge will flatten and we will quickly evolve into a more active southwest flow aloft, which will help the surface front lift northward as a warm front away from the region. Upstream we will be following a fairly robust H5 shortwave from the Desert Southwest and into the high plains where surface cyclogenesis within the leeside trough should take shape Saturday morning. Saturday doesn't look too wet, but there is just enough QPF signal to mention some shower activity with plenty of warm moist air advecting into the region from deep in the Gulf. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Eyes will continue to watch the approaching system from the west move toward our region. The globals and the first view of the mesoscale models show overall a bit of a slower progression than the last few days. It appears there will be a QLCS roll through early Sunday and perhaps linger across the east through mid morning or so Sunday. Forecast soundings in the globals aren't very bullish with instability. Sure, there is decent upper level support, but with lackluster instability, we will call it a conditional risk. That said, wind shear will NOT be a problem with this one. A strong 40-50kt LLJ develops over the region Sunday. Damaging winds looks to be the primary severe weather concern at this juncture. However, we will need to watch the E to NE bowing segments in the QLCS for mesovort (embedded tornado) potential.

Through the day on Sunday the cold core ULL moves east across south MS and into south AL. The core of this feature looks to stay north of our CWFA, however, if there is any daytime heating in a dry slot that may develop there could be additional convection as this feature moves overhead...the stronger updrafts would probably bring some small hail. Again, this potential largely looks to stay to our north, but wouldn't be impossible for the northern 1/3rd of the CWFA to get additional convection behind the line in association with this upper level low. Additionally, strong pressure gradient ahead of and behind the front is expected, which could have some impacts to local Mardi Gras celebrations in terms of gusty winds. At this juncture, a wind advisory may be needed for winds gusting on the southshore.

Going into the new workweek the system exits the region stage east leaving us with a dry northerly flow aloft and surface high pressure over the region. A quick warming trend should take place by midweek as an upper level ridge develops over the central Gulf. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The signal for low visibilities has increased since the 00z update. Dense fog with IFR and likely even lower expected through the morning hours before improving mid to late morning. Otherwise, winds will remain light and variable generally less than 10 knots through the cycle. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Rather benign marine conditions ongoing across the local waters. Only current issue is sea fog developing over the open Gulf waters. Marine Dense Fog Advisories may be possible especially south and west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Otherwise, winds will continue to transition back to an onshore flow through Saturday and gradually increase ahead of the next front due into the region late Saturday and Sunday. Ahead of the front, winds increase to Small Craft thresholds. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Saturday and Sunday. A few gusts to gale force cannot be ruled out Sunday. A few thunderstorms may also be possible with the frontal passage so expect locally higher winds and seas in and around convection. Conditions will improve going into the start of the new workweek late Monday and into Tuesday. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.