textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the first part of the weekend, with potential for at least patchy dense fog each morning.

- The next substantial chance of rain will be over the weekend as a cold front approaches and moves through the local area. Rain totals should remain fairly low most places and likely will not result in much, if any, drought relief.

- A significant cool down is forecast Sunday into the beginning of the next work week. The coldest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions across areas north of the I-10/12 corridor mainly Tuesday morning. Those with sensitive vegetation should keep an eye on the forecast, especially given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their cool season dormancy.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Tonight into Saturday morning, some patchy dense fog will be possible, looking at the models. The model probabilities of fog overnight are generally low (10-20%), and the fog looks to be greater than 1-2 SM, so a dense fog advisory was not issued.

A weak frontal system pushes through the area late Saturday into Sunday. Looking at the models, the system is fairly weak overall in recent trends. Severe weather is not expected for our area, but we could see some strong storms as it moves through with gusty winds (30-40mph) and lightning, especially east of I-55. In terms of the rainfall, we are generally expecting less than an inch of rainfall for the system as it pushes through late Saturday into Sunday. MSW

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

On the backside of the frontal system, cold air advection will bring cold temperatures and drier conditions into the area. Low temperatures on Monday will be in the mid to upper 30s with highs in the mid 50s. Some locations in southwest MS could be approaching freezing. Currently, low temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 20s and low 30s with some locations forecast to see temperatures below freezing, mainly for areas north of I-10/12. After Tuesday, we start to see a warming trend next week with near-normal temperatures returning to the area. Little to no rainfall is expected next week through at least Thursday. MSW

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. MVFR conditions are temporarily a concern at some area airports, like MCB, GPT, and BTR, for afternoon showers today, and TEMPO groups are in effect. Conditions will drop to IFR and LIFR at all area airports for lower ceilings and visibilities due to fog conditions for a few hours around daybreak tomorrow. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will persist with patchy dense fog each night/morning through Saturday. A strong cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in again behind it. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will cause winds to strengthen and turn offshore again Saturday evening. Once hazardous conditions set in Saturday evening, Gale conditions are expected. A Gale Watch is in effect for Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555.

MS...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ534-536-538-550- 552-555.