textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 436 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Dense fog is expected for much of the local area Thursday morning. Superfog will also be possible downwind of smoldering fires, especially those from crop and marsh burns. Plan ahead for possible travel delays due to low visibility during the morning commute hours.

- A risk of strong to severe storms mainly Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. SPC currently has a 15% probability of severe weather along an north of a line from Baton Rouge to Picayune.

- Near record highs through Friday this week with near freezing temps for lows Monday and Tuesday morning next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 642 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

The short term is mainly focused on the fog for tonight into Thursday morning. Then we will turn to severe probabilities starting late Friday. Fog will be an issue Thursday morning as the fog point should be easy to reach while the dense fog point will be easy for some but harder for others. The fog point is 64F with a dense fog point near 62F. The Miss River should be able to produce very easily as winds should be light to non-existant this morning and SST's around 53F with all other variables playing along. All areas will reach 64F with areas along and east of the Miss River reaching below the dense fog point with exception to some south shore locations. West of the river, temps will struggle to get lower than 64F, but this is not far enough away with respect to temps that fog won't form. The bigger issue is that this environment is conducive to superfog downwind of "cool" burning fires, especially those with a moisture load with concentrated smoke particles being trapped and concentrated in the boundary layer beneath the inversion. The fcast soundings show a radiation fog regime while the 00z sounding showed an advective regime. This makes this a conglomerate but has to follow along with radiation producing variables and it looks like these will be achieved Thu morning. Thu night on the other hand, will be another conglomerate but has to follow the radiation variables. This will be very difficult as winds will be a bit elevated tonight keeping mixing going and temps, due to this mixing will be hard pressed to get to the dense fog point. Although, some fog producing vis to around 1 mile could occur in some locations.

We will then transition into a severe wx regime for Fri. The main players in this are over the west coast tonight. The first more southern H3 troughing is moving east along the USA/Mexico border near Arizona as of this writing. This is being produce by the subtropical jet. While the second H3 trough is being produced by the polar jet that is currently swinging down through coastal Cali. The subtropical upper trough moving ahead of the polar trough will actually act to help slow the polar trough on Thu, along with help from stronger winds falling to the back side of the polar trough. The subtropical jet and trough will develop the first of two sfc lows, with this one starting over or near the panhandles of TX/OK by daylight Thu morning. This first sfc low will eject NE with no real issues this far south. The sfc low moving NE will leave its frontal boundary behind to stall as forcing weakens. This sets the stage with plenty of moisture and instability to remain over the gulf south for the next sfc low to take advantage of as it develops over east TX along the old stalled boundary(best identified by dew pt gradient). The strong winds on the back side of the polar trough are moving around the base of this trough by early Fri causing the upper trough to become very progressive quickly transiting eastward bringing a strong mid level upper RR quad moving north of our area by late Fri. Since all other parameters will be in place, this dynamic load will be fully capable of making good use of this environment. The majority of severe wx looks to be north of our area, but it will have a good opportunity to begin over our area with strong enough kinematics starting mid to late Fri morning dragging into Sat morning. All of the variables supporting severe storms will be available this far south, they will just be stronger to the north with exception of CAPE. We actually have some of the strongest CAPE values associated with it north of 1k joules. This is during the daylight hours though and this lowers quite a bit as the Fri night processes. Bulk shear values are higher north but we do get into some good numbers around 60kt. 0-3km SRH values are also from 150 south to 250 north. The slight risk looks warranted from SPC concerning this system. All severe wx variables will be possible but damaging winds look to be the highest probability with tornadoes next and hail the lowest. Total rainfall with this system from Thu through Sat is from half inch near the gulf coast to near 2 inches much farther inland. This is due to the system becoming progressive after it enters the area so flooding should be on about the same probability level as hail. The cold front will move through Saturday with cold stable air quickly moving into the area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 642 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

A high pressure starts to settle in, temps will fall into the low 40s for Sat night into Sun morning. The coolest morning should be Monday with a light freeze across the northern half of the area. This air mass will be slow to move out and so a slow warming trend will start by Monday into Tuesday. No issues found toward the end of this current fcast projection as temps slowly warm back into the 60s for highs and around 70F by Thu of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

VIS/CIG reductions are ongoing across the region. Several terminals are IFR or lower, but MSY and even BTR have improved over the last couple of hours. With the VIS bouncing between IFR and MVFR, tried to go a bit more optimistic, especially for MSY where despite a couple of hours of dense fog, conditions have improved a good bit for the southshore terminals. Later today conditions will again improve and VFR is likely for most sites. Tonight, we'll be watching isolated to scattered shower activity increase, which may help with VIS, but low stratus seems to be again possible toward the end of the cycle. Southerly winds will gradually increase through the cycle and approach 10kts with a few higher gusts possible this afternoon and tonight. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 642 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Fog will be highly likely and dense in sections of the Miss River Thu morning. Some coastal locations along the Miss Sound could also see this Thu morning. The fog will not lift quickly and could remain into mid to late morning.

High pressure dominating the Gulf will slide northeast and this will cause the winds to increase and become more southerly Thursday. Moderate onshore flow will continue through Friday night until a cold front moves through Saturday with a window of strong offshore winds. There will likely need to be some headlines behind the cold front with either an SCY or SCS needed. Rain chances will begin to increase Thursday however, Friday and Friday night into Saturday morning will have the greatest potential for rain with the best chance of thunderstorms some likely strong Friday night and early Saturday.

One last impact to mention. With days of onshore flow prior to the cold front we will have a rather well set up fetch out of the south. With winds quickly veering around to the north-northwest immediately behind the cold front there will be a window of what is called confused seas. The greatest potential appears to be in the outer waters (20-60nm) and west of the mouth of the MS River.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 77 65 75 62 / 10 80 90 100 BTR 80 67 78 63 / 10 80 100 100 ASD 77 64 76 63 / 0 40 80 90 MSY 79 67 78 65 / 0 50 80 80 GPT 73 64 73 64 / 10 20 60 80 PQL 76 62 77 63 / 0 10 50 70

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557.