textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- A weak tropical wave in the central Gulf will continue to slowly approach the LA coast this weekend. This is leading to strong winds and will drive rich Gulf moisture north into the area Friday through the weekend.

- Strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds will continue through Friday leading to hazardous marine conditions and minor coastal flooding. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for all coastal areas except surrounding the tidal lakes through Friday. - Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widespread light to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12 corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing locally heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The old frontal boundary the moved through has become rather diffuse and WPC isn't even highlighting much of a thermal boundary anymore. However, there is still a bit of a difference between our more moist locations across the far southwest to our warmer and drier locations across the east and northeast closer to the H5 ridge centered over the Sequatchie/Tennessee River Valleys...which is keeping rainfall mostly in check this afternoon for about 80 percent of the CWFA.

Going into tonight eyes at least at the surface shift to our south as a weak inverted trough (weak tropical wave) begins to move north and west toward the coast this weekend. As it does, our region will be on the wetter side of this feature with continued onshore/southeasterly flow into the region. With the surface high over the southern states, breezy conditions will also be possible again on Friday, especially along the immediate coastal areas. With the plume of moisture arriving, the best QPF signal is occuring with the diurnal cycle during peak heating both Friday and through the upcoming weekend. We have nudged POPs up Saturday a good bit with the MS Gulf Coast and southeast Louisiana parishes expecting to see the higher rainfall amounts. Widespread 1-3 with some locally heavier amounts up the 6 inches are possible if storms train over the same region. Thought about freshwater Flood headlines again, but given the lack of confidence in the heavier rainfall and coverage, decided to continue messaging localized flooding at this juncture vs widespread.

As the surface trough continues downstream the tropical moisture will continue to filter in, but the pressure gradient will begin to relax a bit, especially going into late Saturday and Sunday. This should help mitigate additional need for Coastal Flood Headlines with the winds lessening a bit. However, did continue the advisory outside of the tidal lakes through Friday keeping in mind the best potential will be during times of high tide. Otherwise, temperatures will be at or below average through much of the short term due to the higher POPs across the region. Mostly upper 70s or lower 80s will be common. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The long term appears to be much drier as we head into a pattern change. An H5 592 DAM ridge will move over the northern Gulf and eventually strengthen as it heads into central Oklahoma by Tuesday. This feature will transition us out of a largely wet period as we see in the short term. That said, with the POPs/QPF signal decreasing (although still NOT zero) as well as higher heights and thicknesses, temperatures will be on the increase with most locations away from the immediate coast warming into the lower 90s with heat index values approaching 100 degrees in a few spots by Wednesday. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Drier air has taken hold over the CWA this afternoon, with all convection now well to the west of the Atchafalaya River. All terminals VFR at issuance time and likely to remain that way for most of the night, if not all night. Do expect some MVFR ceilings to develop at mid morning as daytime heating works on an increasingly moist airmass. Scattered convection could break out as early as mid-morning Friday in a few places, but expect that the majority of convection will occur during the afternoon hours, possibly lingering into the evening. At this time, not enough confidence to focus on a particular terminal, and will be using PROB30 for the threat during the afternoon hours. Winds should drop off a bit in the next few hours before picking up again at mid-morning Friday with a few gusts to 25 knots possible.

MARINE

Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A tight pressure gradient is in place between a weak wave over the central Gulf and high pressure over the southeastern states is leading to strong easterly winds with solidly sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots over all of the coastal waters. Gusts above 30 knots are occurring and expected to occur over the next day or two. Seas are still climbing with the outer waters already around 7 feet. These hazardous conditions will continue through Friday before finally seeing winds start to veer around to more southeasterly and then southerly this weekend as that tropical wave moves towards the Louisiana coast Friday and inland on Saturday. Going into this weekend some improvement takes place, but winds and seas will remain moderate. We will see an increase in storms Friday and Saturday, especially east of the Mississippi River Delta and that will lead to locally higher winds and seas. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078- 091-093-095-097.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ529-531>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ531>536-541- 543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.