textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

- Strong northwest winds will develop over both land and marine areas. Small Craft Advisory headlines are out for all open waters and sounds through Thursday Afternoon.

- There will be potential for freezing temperatures again Thursday morning along and north of the I10/12 corridor. Wind chills will drop into the lower 20s in places leading to a Cold Weather Advisory for portions of the region.

- Extended period looks dry with a warming trend taking shape this weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1041 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A cold front moved through this morning shifting the band of rainfall east of the region. Only a few residual showers are ongoing across the coastal waters. Otherwise, clearing is taking place from west to east and moderate to strong northwest winds are developing advecting dry/cold air into the CWFA. With the increased winds and temperatures dropping into the lower to middle 30s, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the MS Gulf Coast and St. Tammany Parish in LA. We'll allow evening shift to take another look, but currently think winds will be a bit lighter west of I55 leading to a bit higher wind chill values.

Thursday the upper level parent trough quickly begins to exit stage east. The strong northerly upper level flow on the backside of the departing trough will keep most of the region on the dry side of things. Temperatures will be below average generally through the short term period. As for fire weather concerns, RH values do drop into the 30-40 percent range along the MS Gulf Coast Thursday afternoon, however, winds during the afternoon should be on the decline. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1041 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Going into the long term the aforementioned trough continues to spread eastward rapidly. At the surface, high pressure will be in control across the region allowing winds to decrease across the region. Aloft, a ridge will begin to build over the high plains and will spread eastward toward our region allowing for a gradual warming trend. This ridge will be the primary focus of the long term as it continues to build and eventually a weak return flow develops later in the weekend and early next week on the backside of a departing surface high. Temperatures will climb from more average early in the period to above average toward the end with many locations climbing to the lower and middle 70s early next week. Overall, dry and warming is the best characterization of the extended period. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Primarily a wind forecast, and not even a lot of change in wind direction at this point.

MARINE

Issued at 1041 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A cold front will sweep through the coastal waters through the afternoon. Southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots will quickly shift to the northwest and north over the next couple of hours and increase in speed to 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts. These conditions will produce seas of 6 to 9 feet offshore resulting in the need for Small Craft Advisories for the Gulf Waters. Additionally, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the tidal lakes and sounds through Thursday afternoon. Winds will continue to remain elevated at 15 to 20 knots through Friday night as a colder airmass moves over the warmer waters. Conditions will begin to improve this weekend as high pressure moves into the region. (Frye/PG)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Thursday for LAZ076-079-080.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Thursday for MSZ083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.