textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1145 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Small Craft Advisory headlines are in effect for the open waters Friday morning into Friday evening.

- Dry weather is expected until Tuesday. A quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances Tuesday or Wednesday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected, especially next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Yesterday's upper trough axis has moved to near the Atlantic Coast. Upper ridging was noted over the Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure was centered along the south Texas coast. A weak surface trough/wind shift was moving across Oklahoma and north Texas this evening. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures cratered after sunset. Away from direct marine impacts, temperatures ranged from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Isolated locations could fall to just below 32F prior to sunrise Friday, but at this time, don't feel areal coverage is large enough to justify advisory/warning products.

Northwesterly upper flow will continue into the weekend. A reinforcement of cool and dry air will arrive in the area overnight Friday night, but that boundary will be moisture starved. Doubtful we'll even see much in the way of clouds, let alone precipitation.

Temperatures should rebound nicely on Friday, with high temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. The cool air behind the boundary will hold highs in the 60s in most areas Saturday. Overnight lows Friday night will generally be in the 40s, but several degrees cooler Saturday night. Widespread freezing temperatures are not anticipated Saturday night, although a few very well protected areas in the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages could briefly get close to 32F around sunrise.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Upper ridging will gradually build eastward across the Gulf Sunday and Monday. A southern stream shortwave will move across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing what is likely to be the only chance at precipitation over the next week, before ridging rebuilds across the area in a fairly progressive pattern. Precipitable water values briefly get to about 1.25 inches on Tuesday, around the 80th percentile for early February. Shear and instability look very limited at this point, and many areas could remain dry. For now, probabilities for thunder aren't high enough to justify a mention in the forecast.

Beyond the frontal passage Saturday morning, the train of southern stream shortwaves will be accompanied by airmasses of Pacific origin. This is expected to keep any truly cold air bottled up well to the north of the area for the workweek next week. Sunday highs will be slightly above normal, mainly in the 60s. From Monday onward, most of the area is likely to see highs well above normal, as warm as the lower and middle 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, although the immediate coast could be a few degrees cooler on days with southerly winds. Some disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS about whether there will be any significant cooling for next Thursday and Friday, but they do agree on mainly dry conditions. Overnight lows will be in the 40s for most areas Monday morning, and in the 50s for much of the rest of the week. Temperatures for next week as a whole should average roughly 10 degrees above normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions through the period, primarily a wind forecast. It should be noted that there is at least some potential for LLWS Friday morning until the low level inversion mixes out as winds around FL020 increase to around 35 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

There will be a brief period of improved conditions later tonight before winds increase again Friday and Friday evening, and will leave the Small Craft Advisory issued by day shift in place. Will tack on Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the remainder of the overnight hours Friday night. Improving conditions are expected to arrive later in the day Saturday, with more favorable conditions for marine operations anticipated for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Friday for GMZ550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Friday for GMZ552-555- 557-570-572-575-577.