textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1040 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- A strong trough will move through the region early Thursday. This will drive a cold front across the region bringing strong northerly winds and much cooler temperatures. Strong to severe thunderstorms will move east of the area by daylight Thursday morning wiht all modes of severe weather possible. Residents should continue to monitor these storms overnight until the threat passes around daylight.

- In the wake of the cold front, northerly winds will be quite gusty around 20 to 25 mph for most areas with gusts up to 35 mph on the lee side of lakes. These winds will be short lived only lasting into the early afternoon before quickly easing thorugh the rest of the day Thursday. Temperatures will moderate quickly for the weekend, but another shot of much cooler air will arrive Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Strong cold front will move through the area tonight into early Thu morning. This should push all storms associated with it east of the area before daylight ending any severe storm threat. Winds will be strong behind the front with the coastal south shore having the highest winds overall and a wind advisory has been issued for NW winds of around 30mph with gusts to 40mph. Northerly winds will be gusty Thursday for all remaining areas reaching 20-25mph. Winds will rapidly ease through the afternoon and evening hours becoming light by sunset Thu. The most noticeable thing will be the temps, highs will fall back around 20F lower than Wed highs bringing the area into the mid 60s Thu. No freezing temps expected but lows will dip into the upper 30s over the northern tier for Thu night into Fri morning while the rest of the area drops into the 40s and 50s. Very comfortable for Fri as the whole area should be near room temperature or 72F and dry as the RH values will be mid 30% north to mid 50% range south.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A slow warming trend back into the 80s will occur over the weekend ahead of the next cold front expected for early Monday. This front should be an overnight express for Sunday night/Monday morning. The word express is accurate since this will be moving through at a pace of around 40mph from NW to SE. So, lets get into what this system could produce in the way of storms. Shear values are not impressive but not exactly negligable either. This is in line with all other values like advected sfc CAPE of 800+J. These numbers suggest that there is a reason to watch the evolution of this system as there is a few storms that could become marginally severe. The main issue with any of these would be strong straight line winds. With the best dynamics displaced far to the north, there won't be a lot of support for storms to become severe by themselves. This means there will need to be an accessory, and that will end up being the speed of the line coupling with the downdraft of the individual storms along the line. This could briefly cause wind speeds to gust to lower severe limits. Would be surprised if this had even a marginal risk, but we will need to get closer to fropa before any higher confidence can be derived. The most noticeable thing with this will be winds and temp falls. At the moment, deterministic values will not show any freezing temps behind this system. The time frame we are looking at is Tue morning around sunrise for the coolest temps associated with this front. Turning to the probabalistic side of values, any temps below freezing moves from near 10% at BTR and increases to around 30% for MCB for Tue morning. Winds will be much like the front currently moving through Thu morning. The remainder of the week will show a warming trend albeit slowly but overall should be quite nice for spring.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Current storms moving through will be timed in current taf set and should be east of all sites by sunrise. Strong north winds will impact all terminals after fropa. IFR and LIFR conditions will mainly be due to storms moving through as cigs and vis outside these storms should be MVFR until mid morning when clearing from north to south should occur bringing VFR conditions through the remainder of this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

We will be issuing a short lived gale warning for this morning starting at 4am through 10am. Sustained winds will likely remain under gale force but gusts should frequently pass this threshold during this time frame. Winds should ease through the day allowing headlines to be dropped by sunset. The main thrust of strongest winds is through the NW gulf which will take up waters up to and along the Miss River. Return flow will resume once again early Sat and Sunday but another strong cold front will move through the northern gulf Sunday night into Monday morning bringing strong northerly to NW winds once again. These winds could also be up to gale force at least for a short time as well. Winds and headlines should fall once again Tue night or Wed morning of next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ077-078-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-534-538- 550-552-555-570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530- 534-538-550-552-555-570-572-575.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-534-538- 550-552-555-570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-536-557- 577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ534-538-550- 552-555-570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ534- 538-550-552-555-570-572-575.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ534-538-550- 552-555-570-572-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ536-557-577.