textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 214 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors.

- The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values may still approach advisory criteria each day before thunderstorms develop by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

High pressure ridging extending across the area the desert southwest will continue to be the primary factor for convective steering flow through at least Thursday, as upper troughing remains dominant over much of the eastern US before another frontal boundary drops towards the area Thursday Night and Friday. Diurnal convection is expected to be isolated to widely scattered today before a shortwave impulse out ahead of the front will move southeast across the area tonight through Thursday. Multiple hi res guidance sources suggest an MCS type of feature moves through during the morning hours on Thursday, followed by a second round of showers and storms pushing southeast during the afternoon and evening hours with the diurnal instability ahead of the front. The main question will be how much the MCS like feature weakens as it approaches overnight, as well as the timing of the showers and storms relative the daytime heating Thursday. Excessive rainfall will be the primary concern along with gusty winds with these storms, though confidence not high enough confidence for Flood Watches at this time.

The above mentioned front loses steam and stalls while becoming more diffuse on Friday and into Saturday. In addition, the boundary will pull some drier continental air - especially aloft - into the region, resulting in similar isolated to widely scattered chances for convection Friday/Saturday compared to this afternoon and evening. Primary focus area will be closer to the Gulf sea breeze by the coast with a light north to northeasterly flow keeping it from moving significantly inland.

High temperatures will today will be the hottest of the week and likely the rest of the month, as the eastern end of the ridge will be over us and allow highs to reach the mid to almost upper 90s inland and low 90s closer to the coast. Highs will trend more towards the low 90s on average Thursday through Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday night) Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Steering flow off the Gulf will keep PWATs around 2.0" Sunday through Tuesday, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected primarily in the afternoons and evenings. A front will be lingering across the Gulf coast will generally keep precipitation chances closer to the coast, near the southern portions of the area. With several days of higher moisture and storms, localized flooding will be a concern, especially within training or slow moving storms. In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, can't rule out a few stronger afternoon storms as well. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s with maximum afternoon heat index values peaking around 103-108 degrees.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

There remains some uncertainty with afternoon convection, however maintained PROB30s for most of the sites, just pushed back the timing slightly. More adjustments to this afternoon's forecast will likely be made in the next few hours. There is more confidence in the early morning convective impacts to the TAF sites, where new PROB30s are in place. Outside of rain/convection, VFR conditions are generally expected.

MARINE

Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Weak surface high pressure over the Gulf will persist through much of the period, with generally weak southerly winds with the diurnal sea breeze and more. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots otherwise. Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the area each afternoon, and total rain amounts of 2 to 3 inches could wet most areas this week. Lowest daily RH values will be near 45 to 55 percent today and 55 to 65 percent Thursday and Friday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.