textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible today and tomorrow but as the week continues storms will become harder to come by. Storm motion will be slow so with any thunderstorm brief heavy rain is possible, cloud to ground lightning, and higher wind gusts.

- Heat index readings will be close to advisory criteria this afternoon south and southwest of the tidal lakes but should remain just below 108 today. Later this week the heat index values will range between 105 and 110 and Heat Advisories may be needed.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Overall the forecast for the next few days will be one of slightly less storm coverage each day and slightly warmer (hotter) afternoon temps each day. As we have been mentioning the the mid lvl ridge, currently centered over FL will continue to work west into the region today and tomorrow. At the same time a ridge over the 4 corners will work east and these two will eventually merge over the Lower MS Valley and southern Plains late Wednesday. This is going to lead to rising hghts and mid lvl temps and by Thursday with the ridge centered over the region mid lvl hghts will be around 597dm with a h5 temps of -4 to -5. At the same time drier air will move back into the region with PWs dropping to below 1.5". But before Thursday and Friday we still have a chance of seeing isolated to widely scattered storms. The most likely location for seeing storms looks like it will be along the south shore and just into the lower River parishes. The reason for that is synoptic winds will be light and driven diurnally and with that we will see a weak seabreeze develop moving north across coastal SELA and with the light synoptic wind we should see a slightly stronger lake breeze push south across the southshore and where these two collide will be where the best chance for rain will be this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. By Thursday it will become a lot more difficult to get storms to develop.

As for the heat, temps will slowly climb each day and obviously if storms can develop those locations will cool off temporarily but with mid 90s the next few days to possibly upper 90s in some locations later this week we will hover around Heat Advisory criteria. The one problem is it appears that the NBM has been underestimating the amount of mixing and thus no catching the dewpoints dropping as much which is keeping most of the area just below heat advisory criteria. That said as temps warm up we will likely see some areas need heat headlines later this week. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

By Friday night, the upper high will be centered along the Arkansas-Louisiana border. The axis of the high will drift westward over the weekend and be along the Texas-Oklahoma border on Monday, but still exerting it's influence over the local area. At the surface, high pressure will continue across much of the northern Gulf during the period with any frontal boundaries well to the north of the area.

Bottom line for the period, lots of hot weather, and not much more than isolated thunderstorms during the heat of the afternoons. Don't see much more than 20 percent chance at any point this weekend, and many, if not most, areas will probably be dry all weekend. Any thunderstorms that do develop are likely to be along lake or sea breeze boundaries and propagate on boundary collisions from there.

Expect high temperatures in the mid and upper 90s each day, with most lows 75 to 80. Won't be particularly surprised if quite a few spots reach 100 degrees at some point, especially from Saturday through Monday. No doubt we'll be needing Heat Advisories for at least portions of the area over the weekend, with more details as we get closer to the weekend. /RW/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

All terminals are in VFR and will continue to remain that way through much of the forecast. Winds will be light and the only real impact will be isolated storms. Greatest potential for storms will be along the south side of the Lake Pontchartrain and to the west late this afternoon. Confidence is not the greatest so only carrying PROB30 in those locations. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 104 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Through the workweek high pressure will dominate the coastal waters, centered just off to the east while the ridge axis basically stretches west across the Gulf Coast. This will lead to rather light winds through the forecast with winds over the near shore waters dictated by diurnal shifts with a sea breeze during the afternoon or a land breeze at night. The outer waters will also see light winds through the forecast, but winds will likely remain southerly to southeasterly. Thunderstorms will be possible each day; however, coverage will likely be more isolated to widely scattered. That said, with any thunderstorm activity expect lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and a few waterspouts. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.