textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Slightly drier air will remain in place through the first half of the workweek, resulting in relief from last week's oppressive heat and a general lack of showers and thunderstorms.

- Moisture will return to the area during the second half of the week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon. Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

As we transition upper level patterns, high pressure will dominate the upper level pattern and southerly flow will return to the area for tonight through Friday. Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible especially as we head toward the weekend. These storms will primarily have frequent lightning and gusty winds where they occur. Temperatures will be in the low 90s with heat index values in the low 100s. MSW

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

High pressure and summertime pattern will dominate the long term forecast. Southerly surface winds will help advect more moisture into the area. PWs will be around 2 inches for the majority of the long term forecast this weekend and early next week. Daily afternoon popup scattered showers and storms will be expected, especially toward early next week. These storms will have the potential for frequent lightning and gusty subsevere winds (40-50mph), but we are not expecting severe weather with these storms. Temperatures will be in the mid 90s with heat index values of 103-108 degrees for the weekend. MSW

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Radar currently shows scattered showers and storms along sea breeze boundaries along/south of I-10 in Louisiana. Current trends indicate that this convection will miss terminals except KHUM. Diurnal characteristics of storms should lead to dissipate within the next few hours. VFR conditions and light/variable winds expected overnight through mid morning Wednesday. Did add some PROB30 groups to multiple terminals tomorrow as isolated to scattered storms develop along sea breeze boundaries as the low levels heat up.

MARINE

Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

No significant marine impacts expected through the forecast period. A weak pressure gradient will remain in place through much of the week as broad upper level troughing persists over the eastern half of the country and the western periphery of the subtropical ridge is positioned across the Gulf. This will generally support light and somewhat variable winds through Thursday, with speeds mostly 10 knots or less and seas around 1 to 2 feet. Local landbreeze setup may produce a brief offshore wind component during the overnight and early morning hours, followed by a more southerly seabreeze component near the coast each afternoon.

The low-level pressure gradient may tighten modestly Friday into the weekend as surface high pressure becomes better established over the eastern Gulf while lower pressures persist over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This should result in a more consistent south to southwest flow, generally around 10 to 15 knots which will support 2-3 ft seas. Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday and continuing through the weekend and into early next week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion, over the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours. Then activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze during the afternoons.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.