textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1157 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Little or no rain expected through Saturday. Higher rain chances Saturday night into Sunday morning with a cold front.

- The coldest air of the year will bring dangerous wind chills and a widespread freeze to the area Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Strong winds and dangerous seas are expected Sunday into Monday after a strong cold front moves through.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday Night)

Issued at 1157 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

The main weather concern through Saturday night will be the potential for widespread morning fog Saturday AM, which may become dense in areas hindering visibilities. Some fog may develop again early Sunday morning along and south of I-10 but it's more likely to be patchy in nature due to a little more wind.

Otherwise, weak high pressure at the surface will dominate and continue a weak onshore flow, elevating near-surface moisture across the CWA (fueling fog potential tonight and again Sunday AM). There is also the chance for bouts of light rain showers passing from west to east as mild warm advection and a weak impulse aloft moves from eastern Texas across the northern Gulf coast through Saturday, yielding rain chances around 10-20%. By Saturday afternoon, rain chances will trend up slightly but the best chances will be overnight, increasing to around 30-60% for LS parishes north of I-10 as well as the southern MS counties ahead of the an arctic front that will arrive late Saturday night.

The most significant concern this period will be the cold arctic air that will follow behind the stronger aforementioned front on Sunday. This airmass will be very dry and cold, potentially the coldest of the Winter so far. Breezy winds will accompany the rush of cold air as it makes its way toward the Gulf shoreline Sunday, leading potentially dangerous wind chills. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday will be near freezing at the coast with readings in the low to mid 20s common along and north of I-10. Breezy winds will lower the wind chills to the teens and low 20s area wide, likely requiring Cold Weather headlines for Sunday night and Monday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1157 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

The most significant concern this period will be the cold arctic air that will follow behind the stronger aforementioned front on Sunday. This airmass will be very dry and cold, potentially the coldest of the Winter so far. Breezy winds will accompany the rush of cold air as it makes its way toward the Gulf shoreline Sunday, leading potentially dangerous wind chills. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday will be near freezing at the coast with readings in the low to mid 20s common along and north of I-10. Breezy winds will lower the wind chills to the teens and low 20s area wide, likely requiring Cold Weather headlines for Sunday night and Monday.

After a bitterly cold day Monday, a transition to a warming onshore flow will begin Tuesday as high pressure becomes established to the east and continues through the rest of the work week resulting in warming temps, higher humidity, and better chances for daily bouts of morning fog.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Mostly VFR ceilings this afternoon, with a few terminals where High- MVFR ceilings have developed as scattered sprinkle/showers pass over. These trends, along with light winds, continue until this evening when low stratus will overspread the area from west to east. With the exception of KMSY, KNEW, and KHUM, there is a considerable chance of LIFR or airfield minimums being met overnight and through the morning hours Saturday. Low stratus will also be accompanied by patchy to areas of fog, some becoming dense at times. Improving conditions will begin 15z and continue through the rest of the morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1157 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Moistening onshore flow continues keep seas low through Saturday while a surface ridge resides over the waters. An abrupt change in the maritime conditions is expected Sunday as an arctic front rushes toward the coastal waters. Strong high pressure will strengthen offshore winds to Small Craft Advisory levels with gale-force gusts and seas pushing toward 5 to 8 feet. High pressure will gradually become established to the east around Tuesday next week setting up a period of onshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 53 70 45 52 / 10 30 80 10 BTR 56 74 49 57 / 10 30 60 20 ASD 53 73 50 60 / 10 20 40 10 MSY 58 75 54 62 / 10 20 30 20 GPT 56 71 51 62 / 10 20 40 20 PQL 52 72 49 60 / 10 20 40 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.