textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 degree range through the week. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited to no relief.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon storms are expected the next couple days with a little better coverage this afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

The orientation of storms was a bit different than what was expected, but the majority of it was spot on. The north-south extent was a bit more questionable until looked at from a broader view. It was where two troughs came together. The trough that has been over the SE CONUS for a while now intersected the new trough that is moving south causing the storms to errupt in a north south fashion while the rest developed along the new boundary. This won't be much different today other than placement. The whole mess will be farther south, basically over our area. We will still see convective temps around 96F, which would normally give us a few storms each day, but we will now intruduce a weakness and some outflows once activity gets started. A few of these storms could become quite volatile and the intense heating and 850mb troughing will definitely give us more coverage than there has been the last several days. With convective temps being so high, storms should rapidly fire once those temps are achieved almost all at once. This should lead to more than one or two severe storms today. A general northerly storm flow does not normally bring tornadoes with it, but one can never rule those things out down here. The main attributes these storms will carry will be damaging winds, intense frequent lightning, heavy rainfall and possibly some small hail. After today, the normal daily isolated to scattered storms will take over. Not a lot of difference than what we were seeing before but there will be a few more storms dotting the map each day and the heat headlines will likely remain well into the start of next week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Starting the long term period our region remains on the eastern periphery of the H5 heat bubble centered over western portions of Texas and New Mexico. The storm track will remain roughly from the Tennessee River Valley southeast off the Carolina/Georgia Coast. Despite the ridge still hanging on tough, there will still be diurnally driven convection at least isolated in coverage with the best POPs being as far from the heat dome as possible across the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Considering the continued ridging with high heights and thicknesses temperatures will remain well above average going into late August. Again some convection will help late in the afternoon, but most will likely remain on the dry side west of the I59 corridor.

Globals then bring on a slight shift in the pattern by Thursday. Both GFS and ECM have an H5 short wave on the eastern periphery of the ridge dig into our region increasing POPs slightly. This of course looks to help bring daily temperatures down slightly with an increase in POPs and cloudiness. Kept POPs at or slightly below average, but over the next few days if models continue to agree on this solution, temps will need to be lowered a bit and inversely POPs will need to be increased. Otherwise, until then, heat headlines will be needed each day except maybe next Thursday. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Most of the day will be VFR for all terminals. TSRA will begin to rapidly develop during the mid to late afternoon hours with higher chances of each site getting impacts from storms than there have been the last few days. All sh/ts will begin to weaken after sunset bringing all terminals back to VFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1018 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. A predominantly westerly flow will continue, with higher winds during the early morning and late night hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071- 076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.