textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Not a lot of difference in coverage of storms for today when compared to yesterday. The biggest difference will be new locations may get storms where they did not yesterday and some areas that were hit yesterday will get hit again today. Very typical for summer. Higher PW values will move through in waves for the next several days, at least through Friday. These higher values move through during the day and lower at night giving way to a diurnally driven storm environment. The weekend will be a bit different as high PW values come in and stay for a few days which means more coverage of heavy rainfall potential. Each day will carry the same potential for strong/severe storms which is pretty much every day there are any storms present during the summer.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Upper ridging is expected to build across the Rockies over the next few days. As that ridge builds into the central Plains early next week, there will be a weakness in the 500 mb pattern between that ridge and one between the Bahamas and Bermuda. That weakness or trough will move from the Ohio Valley Saturday, into our area by Monday and into the eastern Gulf Tuesday. A weak surface boundary may also be associated with the trough.

Precipitable water values are expected to be near or above the 90th percentile Saturday night through Monday (2.10 inches) and possibly topping out around 2.3 inches on Monday before dropping to near the mean (1.7 inches) by late Tuesday. This should enhance (scattered to numerous) convective coverage during convectively favored times Sunday and Monday...peak heating hours over land zones, late night and morning in marine areas. Of course, with precipitable water values that high, there will be a threat of at least localized heavy rainfall, but pinpointing exactly where that will occur 5 or 6 days from now is problematical. As the column dries out somewhat late on Tuesday, we'll probably see less areal coverage of convection, and a lesser threat of heavy rainfall, but low level lapse rates steepen and DCAPE values increase to over 1000 j/kg, so the wind threat will increase.

Still looks to be rather warm on Sunday, as storms may not develop until mid-afternoon, with highs probably 90 to 95. Areal coverage of storms increases Monday and likely develops a little earlier, so slightly lower high temperatures should be expected. Guidance from the Tuesday global operational models was within a degree or two of each other, so there's not likely to be much of a shift in the NBM numbers. Won't entirely rule out the need for a Heat Advisory Sunday, but at this point, the numbers say it's borderline at best.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

TSRA today will be timed in PROB30 groups as coverage will be somewhat similar to yesterday. Terminals that are impacted by TSRA will produce at most MVFR conditions temporarily. All activity will begin to decay with the loss of daytime heating. Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Winds will remain from a WSW direction through much of the week and speeds will remain mostly around 10kt but a few days could rise to near 15kt. Winds shift to due south then to the southeast by the weekend but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, mostly during the morning hours. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.