textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1119 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Small Craft Advisory headlines are in effect for all open waters and sounds through Thursday Afternoon and again through Friday.

- Dry weather is expected until at least Tuesday, and possibly longer. Above normal high temperatures are expected for most of the period from Friday through at least mid-week next week.

- A quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

In the upper levels a trough axis will continue to slide eastward off the east coast through today while ridging builds back over the four corners region. This ridging will continue moving eastward and more into our area towards the end of the short term period. At the surface an area of high pressure moves in over the Gulf and sets up for a few days.

Following yesterdays cold front we were once again cooler this morning and will be throughout the day today. Afternoon highs reach the mid 50s for most with overnight lows dropping back into the mid to upper 30s for eastern areas and the low 40s for western areas. Temperatures warm back up to end the week with highs on Friday back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Morning lows will remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s through the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The start to the long term begins with the same calm and mild conditions that the short term leaves off on. Upper level ridging becomes more centered over our region through the weekend keeping us in a rather dry period. Some good warming will come from this as we see temperatures rise back into the 70s heading into early next week. Early morning lows also warm up some, into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Our next rain chances come around mid-week with a quick moving shortwave arriving late Tuesday into Wednesday. Models are still in a little disagreement on timing, but seem to agree on bringing us some light rain chances. PoPs won't be too impressive, only around 15-25%, but as we see more agreement in the coming days we could see these numbers increase some. Won't get into it too much as it is at the very end of the forecast period and even somewhat beyond the period, but last night the models were in decent agreement with a more progressive system late next week. Runs this morning have backed off a little on this, but at the very least it is worth watching the trends for this potential as we head towards Mardi Gras weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Prevailing VFR at all terminals and this will persist through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1119 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts are expected through the daytime hours today with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Gulf Waters. There may be a brief period of improved conditions later tonight before winds increase again Friday evening into Saturday. Improving conditions are expected to arrive later in the day Saturday, with more favorable conditions for marine operations anticipated for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.