textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Small Craft Advisories in effect tonight through Tuesday and likely will need to be extended for much of the water through most of the week.

- That prolonged period of strong easterly winds over the north-central and northeastern Gulf increase the coastal flood threat on east facing shorelines by Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

It has been a dreary Easter Sunday for much of the region but the rain is slowly exiting the area and we even seeing a few breaks in the clouds across the northwest. The cold front has moved into the coastal waters and we are already beginning to see drier air slide in from the north. Winds are also starting to slowly pick up behind the front but we will see those ramp up more this evening especially over the coastal waters.

As for tonight...impacts will be fairly minimal but we will still have the potential for more light rain across coastal SELA. The cold front will be well into the Gulf by tonight but with weak a sfc flow taking shape over the western Gulf there will be light overrunning showers across the northwestern and north-central Gulf tonight. This activity looks like it will push far enough north to get onshore over coastal SELA. That said this will be rather light and have no real impacts.

Flow aloft is currently zonal over us with the base of the trough axis north of our area. As it trough starts to slowly dig east- southeast tonight and the ridge to our west builds we will move under weak northwest flow tomorrow and into Monday night. At the sfc high over the Plains will slowly slide east tomorrow however, it will merge with a much larger area of high pressure coming out of Canada by tomorrow evening before it starts to turn east towards the Great Lakes Tuesday morning. The first area of high pressure will eventually lead to our winds slowly becoming more northeasterly and should lead to them relaxing a little but this will be short lived as we head into Tuesday and especially the second half of the work week. Slightly cooler LL temps and drier air will make for a more mild day tomorrow with highs slightly below normal. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The extended portion of the forecast will be a little more impactful as we could see a few weak disturbances push across the region and it looks like we will have some coastal flooding issues to deal with. No changes made to the NBM/WPC forecast.

Tuesday will be generally quiet with s/w ridging aloft and high pressure dominating the region. Winds will already start to shifting more towards the east-northeast and maybe even out of the east by late afternoon. Winds will be a touch lighter at first but the combination of increasingly onshore flow and being right around the peak of spring tide Tuesday we could already start seeing minor coastal flooding issue Tuesday but as we move into Tuesday night and through the rest of the work week this concern will grow.

As the large dome of high pressure slides across the Great Lakes towards the east coast we will see a strong easterly fetch set and up over the north-central and northeastern Gulf Wednesday and into the weekend. Not only will that fetch setup and be persistent it will be rather strong at times. The combination of all of that and in the peak of the spring tide is going to lead to coastal flooding along east facing shores. Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas will likely lag by a day or so given that water will have to make it through the Rigolets which takes times but with the durations of those easterly winds once the water does get into the lakes it will take a while to get out. Coastal Flood Adv's may be needed as early as Tuesday but it looks quite likely we will need Coastal Flood Warnings for portions of the coast by Wednesday.

Outside of the coastal flooding issues, we will see a warming trend through the week. However, we will also see a shot of rain Wednesday and perhaps again Friday night. Wednesday appears to be the best chance for rain in this forecast. We will see a surge of moisture out of the east-southeast while a s/w move across the Lower MS Valley. This slug of moisture looks like it will get pushed far enough west to mainly impact the southwestern half of the CWA while coastal MS may remain dry. This s/w quickly slide east with s/w ridging Thursday but it will be relatively weak and there may still be some afternoon showers. The next disturbance will already be moving through TX Thursday night and should push through the area Friday night. /CAB/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Rain continues to impact a few terminals but is slowly moving out however, low clouds are still impacting are terminals at this time. This is leading to a mix of IFR and MVFR cigs. Terminals across the northwest like BTR and MCB and even HDC are seeing the cigs improve with cloud bases around 1500. Elsewhere cigs are still bouncing around 700 and 1200 ft. Cigs should improve later this afternoon and this evening for most of the area however, HUM will likely see overrunning style rain moving in out of the Gulf overnight which will continue to impact it. The only other terminals that may see some impact from that could be MSY and NEW but the rain may remain just south of those terminals. As for vsbys these will only fall as rain impacts the terminal. Not anticipating any LLWS issues. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The cold front entered our coastal waters this morning and should clear them this afternoon. Winds behind the front are quickly veering around out of the north and were slowly starting to pick up already. By this evening winds will increase to 20 kt and should peak out just under 25 kt for most waters overnight. As broad high pressure tries to nudge south winds slowly shift to northeast and begin to relax over the tidal lakes and most of the Sounds Monday afternoon and night. The open waters and especially outer waters will see northeast to east-northeast winds likely remain around 20 kt with higher gusts through Tuesday. Impacts, though already occurring, will begin to pick up Tuesday night. A large dome of high pressure will slide east out of the Great Lakes on Tuesday and towards the east coast by Wednesday morning. This will result in a tightening of the pressure gradient leading to continued flags across all of the coastal waters. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.