textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are anticipated over the next several days. Areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall could see localized flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch will be in effect Monday morning through at least Tuesday night for southwest Mississippi and the northern half of southeast Louisiana.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

An H5 ridge continues to remain over the central Gulf. Being on the northern periphery of this feature, our area is in a more zonal flow in the base of the broad scale trough over the eastern and central U.S. This flow pattern is also the reason why our dry and hot pattern is turning into a cooler and wetter one as a surface front stalls somewhere between the I20/I10 corridors. This will help increase rain chances with likely the more widespread/numerous shower and storm activity occuring during the afternoon/early evening hours. This pattern looks to persist over the next several days leading to several rounds of heavy rainfall. Will continue with the Flood Watch through Wednesday morning, however, keep in mind this may be extended in time and area eventually.

Looking more toward midweek and toward the end of the period, we will be watching a surface feature over the northwest Gulf that tries to develop into a surface low along the lower TX Coast before moving north and eastward into Western/Central Louisiana later this week. As it does the surface flow becomes stronger with breezy conditions developing as pressure gradient from this feature and the high pressure over the west Atlantic grows tighter. A strong southerly fetch may also signal some minor coastal flood concerns as well. As the surface feature moves north and east, the southerly flow bringing a large influx of tropical moisture will again be of concern for the potential of at least localized flooding. Any activity that does develop will likely contain very efficient rates with PWATS upward of 2.25 inches. Otherwise, temperatures this week should be a bit lower than last again because of the increase in cloudiness and POPs. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The 14/18z GFS operational run trended toward the 14/12z ECMWF operational run with a slower evolution of the remnant tropical circulation and moisture, tracking the circulation across the north central Gulf Coast region on Wednesday night or Thursday.

While that may be the last organized burst of convection, it's likely to leave a frontal boundary across some portion of the local area for Thursday night into the weekend. Precipitable water values are expected to remain high, at or above 2 inches, which is above the 90th percentile, until Sunday. No real signs of anything to inhibit development of at least isolated to scattered convection with diurnal heating both Friday and Saturday. If there's going to be a dry day, probably won't be until Sunday. Of course, with the airmass that moist, there will be a threat of localized heavy rainfall somewhere in our area.

Highs Friday and Saturday probably won't get much past 90, but may be a few degrees warmer on Sunday if the forecast drying in the soundings occurs. With a very moist airmass in place, overnight lows will have a difficult time falling below 75 degrees. (RW)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Mostly VFR/MVFR today outside of convection of course. Showers and storms will be around through most of the day, but only in periods. Winds, VIS, and CIGs could all be impacted in and around convection. There looks to be a break this evening before more showers develop early Tuesday morning. Winds will be southerly and mostly light again in and around convection winds may vary in direction and could be gusty at times. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

High pressure over the eastern Gulf and Florida will continue to dominate the local coastal waters into the start of the new week. As a result, a steady south to southwesterly flow will persist, with winds generally around 10 to 15 knots. These conditions will keep seas near 2 to 4 feet across the open Gulf waters, while the sounds and tidal lakes remain closer to 1 to 2 feet. By Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary is expected to settle near the area and eventually stall, bringing a more unsettled pattern with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Winds may also trend a bit higher at times through at least midweek. The tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf is expected to move inland over Mexico then northward near the Texas coast by mid-week. The interaction between the weak low to the west and the strong high to the east will cause winds to increase from east to west over the entire gulf possibly leading to Small Craft

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 071-076-079>086.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MSZ068>071.

GM...None.