textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 927 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through Monday morning for areas west of I-55 and closer to SW coastal areas.

- Dry weather is expected until at least Tuesday. A quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances Tuesday or Wednesday. An additional weather system could move across the area next weekend.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 927 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

At this point in the evening, have opted to not expand Dense Fog Advisory. There is quite a bit of high cloud cover moving across the area, and winds have not completely decoupled. There is some potential that we could lose the high clouds prior to sunrise, so won't preclude fog development entirely.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

The main impact of the short term period looks to be the potential for fog heading into early Monday morning. Probabilities for this fog look best for areas west of I-55 and along the coast, which led to a Dense Fog Advisory being issued for these areas. This may need to be extended eastward on the evening forecast package if trends continue to increase.

Otherwise, we have upper level ridging becoming more centered over our region today helping to keep the forecast dry and heading towards a warmer trend. Speaking of warmer, the NBM has been running rather low on high temperatures the last couple days so did end up going with NBM 75th percentile and there is a chance even that ends up not being high enough. That being said, afternoon highs today likely end up in the low to mid 70s under sunny skies. Monday will see similarly warm temperatures with an uptick also being noted in the early morning lows, forecast to be back up closer to the low 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Heading into the short term, we likely see the continuation of morning fog potential into Tuesday. Probabilities look to extend further eastward for fog Tuesday morning as well. The upper level ridging starts to break down later in the day on Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves across the Southern Plains and towards our area. This shortwave brings a chance of rain into Wednesday, though expected to be rather light in nature. PoPs peak Wednesday afternoon around 30-35%.

In terms of temperatures the warm trend sticks around and even trends further up as afternoon highs on Wednesday through Friday even touch the upper 70s in a few places. This is also noticeable in the morning lows, forecast to be in the mid to upper 50s. We will be a good 10 to even 15 degrees above climate normals for this time of year in some spots. Temperatures cool down just a touch heading into next weekend, but still sitting a good 5-7 degrees above normal for most.

The big question of the long term forecast is what this next weekend system will look like. We have yet to see much model consistency for this system unfortunately. Taking a look at overall ensembles the biggest difference is the GFS is notably faster in arrival of the trough and is a little further north. This latest run did shift a bit south compared to previous runs. At this point it does look like we will get something out of this system. Now whether or not that ends up being mostly just rain or a potential for severe weather is not super clear currently. The timing and placement will be very important factors in deciding this. Continuing to monitor this system closely as we head into Mardi Gras weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Little has changed since the midday package. VFR conditions will continue across all terminals this evening. Fog development will probably begin around 09-10z. Fog can't be precluded at any of the terminals, with at least temporary IFR conditions and a threat of LIFR. Any flight restrictions should improve around 15z Monday, with VFR the remainder of the forecast period beyond that point.

MARINE

Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Winds return to onshore flow through today and will likely remain that way throughout this week. More favorable conditions for marine operations anticipated are anticipated into the early part of the week as flow remains light. However, with warmer air moving over the waters, the potential for fog development will increase, beginning perhaps as early as Monday morning and continuing towards midweek.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-046>048- 056>060-065>067-083>086.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.