textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Temperatures will remain around 10-15 degrees through this weekend and into the middle of next week. The hottest days appear to be Today, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Highs for most areas expected to approach near or surpass record highs, along with the potential for record warm lows for some locations. - Showers and storms will be possible later today, tonight, and Sunday. A severe storm or two capable of damaging winds, hail up to 1", locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado cannot be ruled out especially in northwestern areas. Widespread showers and storms in association with a frontal boundary which could lead to flooding of poor drainage and urban areas.

- Dense fog of less than 1 nautical mile of visibility is expected in the cooler shelf waters of the Mississippi Coast. Dense fog is not likely over land, but patchy fog cannot be ruled out for immediate coastal areas near the cooler shelf waters.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Moderate low level flow continues to draw rather deep moisture into the region from the south. Dew points of 70+ over sea surface temps in the 50s and 60s is causing some marine fog across the MS Gulf Coast, although with the stronger low level flow this has been more of a low stratus event. Outside of cloudiness and fog, eyes are looking northwest as the next system moves south and east toward our region this weekend.

Timing of the front and where it stalls is still showing up well in the globals, although some of the short term mesoscale models are a bit quicker and a bit further offshore, which may provide a bit more uncertainty for POPs on Sunday...more on that in a moment. First, given climo and we consider severe parameters with any frontal boundary and parent H5 trough. This one is no different, however, at this juncture the only parameters that really standout would be a bit higher instability (just under 2K J/KG of CAPE). Low level wind shear is a bit lackluster, in fact bulk shear values of only 25kts is forecast. What has perked up my attention a bit is the PWATs just below 1.7" which is very close to the daily max for this time of year, so the rainfall could be a bit of a problem. Antecedent conditions are still abnormally dry, however, a quick 1-2" of rain could result in very quick runoff leading to urbanized and poor drainage areas having some issues.

As for severe potential, both higher res mesoscale CAMs and globals show a line of convection moving into the region. Again, wind shear is weak and a lot of the best upper support will be north of our region by this point, but a conditional or marginal threat will be there for hail and wind. Boundary interactions also may provide just enough vorticity to help with a few rotating updrafts, so although not the greatest potential, a tornado or two cannot but ruled out, but certainly the exception rather than the rule.

Models again diverge a bit in terms of how quickly the line moves through on Sunday with the front. Mesoscale models want to bring the front through quicker and after on average 1-3 inches of rainfall, they move convection offshore as the cold pool surges early Sunday morning. Globals may be just a bit slower as the front stalls under a mostly zonal flow over the region. If the front does hang up around the I10/12 corridor there will be at least some concern for hydro issues. Think some training could be an issue if the front does stall over the land areas especially with weaker low level and more unidirectional flow with ample moisture around. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The upper level pattern will be mostly zonal across the region, however, with a bit of surface convergence with the weak front draped over the northern Gulf and some upper support with an H5 impulse moving through, one more day of showers will be possible on Monday. The overall surface flow pattern will remain about the same with a continued onshore return flow as we remain on the western periphery of the high over the southwest Atlantic and this will likely continue well into the new workweek. Tuesday and Wednesday we will watch a very subtle upper high develop and spread eastward over the central and eastern Gulf helping move the front a bit north out of the region. Upstream we will be watching the next trough move eastward from northern Mexico and into central and eastern Texas late Wednesday and into Thursday. This feature will bring a cold front through the region early Thursday morning with additional rain chances. The globals indicate this feature moves through quickly, but some rain is better than none at this juncture with the abnormally dry conditions so far this year...assuming no residual hydro concerns lingering from the short term.

Going into the end of next week, temperatures finally drop to values we more typically see this time of year with lows dropping into the upper 40s and 50s with afternoon highs climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Conditions will dry out behind the frontal passage with surface high moving into the region late Thursday and into Friday allowing for weak surface flow and overall more benign weather conditions across the region as a dry northwest upper level flow develops over the CWFA. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

CIG reductions are mostly ongoing across the region with a low stratus deck residing over most terminals. This will continue and perhaps cause further IFR or lower reductions later into the morning. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the main story will be the lower CIGs with only a slight improvement expected by around 17-19z. Light to moderate southerly winds will also continue through the cycle. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Onshore southeasterly flow will continue through the weekend averaging generally around 10 to 15 knots or so. Conditions will remain favorable for areas of coastal fog for nearshore waters on Saturday morning particularly for the Mississippi Coast. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for Mississippi Sound and Chandeleur Sound and nearby waters for Saturday morning where visibilities will be 1 nautical mile or less at times. Otherwise, daily isolated to scattered shower/storm chances will remain possible each day closer to nearshore areas, with a greater risk of thunderstorm impacts to the marine waters on Sunday into Monday. Onshore southeasterly flow is expected to persist through atleast the middle of the new workweek next week. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-536-557.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ536-557.