textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Persistent easterly winds will continue to to push water towards the coast leading to minor coastal flooding at high tide through Monday morning. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding. - Next system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will begin during the Tuesday impacting election day while stronger storms will be possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday with the front.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The shortwave trough that has been impacting the region has shifted east, with weak mid-level ridging beginning to build across the area in its wake. Although the stronger upper-level support has departed, considerable low-level moisture remains in place. This should maintain mostly cloudy conditions overnight, with a few lingering showers possible. Rain coverage should remain limited as the better forcing continues to shift away from the region. Weak ridging will continue to limit convection Monday, although residual moisture and some weak low-level isentropic ascent could support isolated to scattered showers, particularly during the afternoon. Temperatures will remain rather mild for early November, with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s while afternoon highs should range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.

Attention then turns to the amplified upper-level trough currently progressing across the western CONUS. With this feature moving into the better sampled upper-air network, guidance should continue to converge on its evolution over the next 24 hours. This trough is expected to move across the central Plains Monday and approach the Mississippi Valley Tuesday. Ahead of it, increasing southerly flow will support additional low-level warming and moisture transport into the region. Temperatures Tuesday should reach the lower to middle 80s across much of the area, with dewpoints generally recovering into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Increasing cloud cover and moisture will accompany the approaching system, with shower chances beginning to increase across the northwestern portions of the CWA late Tuesday afternoon. The more significant forecast question continues to be the specific evolution of the upper trough as it approaches the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night. Recent guidance has trended toward a less amplified pattern aloft as additional shortwave energy digging southward from Canada helps draw the stronger circulation and associated dynamics farther north. This results in a broader, flatter trough across our region, with the primary surface low remaining well north of the area. Consequently, the approaching cold front is expected to be relatively weak, with less pronounced forcing for ascent than earlier guidance had suggested. This solution has reduced confidence in widespread thunderstorms, particularly during the overnight hours when instability will become increasingly limited. Poor mid-level lapse rates, potential cloud cover during the day Tuesday, and weakening large-scale forcing should further limit the degree of destabilization. Although sufficient moisture and modest deep-layer shear may support a few stronger storms, the overall severe weather threat appears rather low. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk near the northwestern portions of the CWA, where any convection associated with the approaching front would have the best opportunity to become organized. Isolated strong wind gusts would be the primary concern from stronger storms, but even thunderstorm coverage remains somewhat uncertain. Rainfall amounts also appear less impressive than previously anticipated, with much of the stronger moisture convergence and ascent expected to remain farther north. Most locations should receive less than one half inch. The main forecast uncertainty remains how much convection can develop along the weakening front and how far east it can maintain itself Tuesday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The weakening upper-level trough and associated frontal boundary will continue progressing south and east through the region Wednesday. Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will remain possible, particularly during the morning and across eastern portions of the CWA, before precipitation chances quickly diminish from west to east. With the stronger upper-level dynamics remaining well north of the region, widespread organized convection appears unlikely. The frontal passage will bring a modest decrease in low- level moisture, although the associated airmass change will not be especially pronounced initially. High temperatures Wednesday should remain in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

By Wednesday night and Thursday, the upper-level flow pattern transitions to a more zonal configuration across the northern Gulf Coast. This should support a return to predominantly dry conditions as weak surface high pressure gradually builds into the region. Another progressive shortwave is expected to move across the southern Plains Thursday and the Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday night. However, limited moisture recovery in the wake of Wednesday's front should greatly restrict precipitation potential with this feature. A weak reinforcing cold front may accompany the disturbance into Friday, bringing another modest reduction in dewpoints and slightly cooler temperatures. Otherwise, relatively quiet weather is expected through Friday and Saturday, with temperatures remaining near to slightly above seasonal normals during the afternoon. Highs should generally remain in the middle to upper 70s, while overnight lows gradually fall into the 50s, with some upper 40s possible across the typically cooler northern locations late in the week.

Confidence in the overall dry pattern is reasonably high through Saturday. There are some differences in the timing and amplitude of additional shortwave energy approaching the central CONUS late in the weekend, but limited moisture return should keep precipitation chances rather low through the end of the forecast period. Any meaningful return of rain appears more likely to hold off until beyond Saturday, if it develops at all.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

MVFR CIGs will likely be the story through this cycle. There may be brief VFR or IFR swings, but mostly MVFR cloudiness looks to be the rule today. Easterly winds will also be elevated, especially the coastal terminals during the afternoon hours. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1153 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A relatively tight surface pressure gradient will maintain current moderate easterly flow across the coastal waters through Monday. Winds will generally remain around 10 to 15 knots across the tidal lakes and protected bays, with 20 to 25 knots more likely across the open Gulf waters. Those wind speeds will support seas of 5 to 7 feet, occasionally higher. Thus, have issued a Small Craft Advisory this evening based on those latest surface obs.

The persistent easterly flow will also continue to support elevated water levels along east-facing shorelines. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 1AM through 9AM Monday for portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts to account for the potential of minor coastal flooding.

Winds should gradually weaken and become more southeasterly Tuesday as the pressure gradient relaxes ahead of the approaching cold front. Given the expected flattening of the upper-level trough aloft and limited support behind the frontal boundary, a significant post- frontal wind surge does not appear likely. Winds should shift offshore Wednesday into Thursday, generally remaining light to moderate as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will also allow seas to gradually subside. Showers will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday before drier conditions return. A return to onshore flow is eventually expected as the surface high shifts eastward.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ070- 076-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532- 534>536-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ534>536- 551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.