textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day through the week. While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain.

- Tropical Storm Eduoard will continue to move away from the area making landfall this afternoon. Winds and seas over the western coastal waters should subside this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Upper ridge was over western Kentucky/Tennessee this morning. Tropical Storm Eduoard was approaching the mouth of the Sabine River at late morning. Another easterly wave appeared to be over south Florida this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were moving northwestward across the area, with most areas dry at any one time. Noon temperatures were nearing 90 degrees, although scattered precipitation will knock those back several degrees where they occur. Dew points were in the mid and upper 70s, but should drop a few degrees in the next hour or two.

Eduoard will continue to move inland over east Texas tonight with the upper ridge to the north trying to build into the local area briefly tonight and Wednesday morning. Another impulse in the easterlies will move into the area from the eastern Gulf for Thursday and Friday. Very little change in moisture availability through the end of the week, with values generally near or above the 75th percentile (1.95 inches).

Most of the area should just see isolated to scattered afternoon convection through tomorrow, with the exception of the Atchafalaya River Basin, where areal coverage will be a bit higher. Areal coverage should increase to scattered to numerous for Thursday and Friday, especially near the coast, as the impulse in the easterlies approaches. We expect a few of the showers/storms to be rather efficient rainfall producers each day, but widespread flooding issues aren't anticipated today or tomorrow at this time. Threat may increase a bit by late Thursday or Friday, but not enough agreement in solutions to state anything with confidence.

Highs will continue in the 90 to 95 degree range through the end of the workweek, although areal coverage of precipitation on Friday may hold things on the lower end of that range. NBM daytime dew points have been running a little on the high side in the short term, by a degree or two, and making adjustments for that keeps heat index values below heat advisory criteria.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

No real indications of large scale features impacting the local area over the holiday weekend. However, moisture values are expected to remain at or above the 75th percentile, so there's likely to be daily rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours. Similarly, there's not going to be much of a day to day change in high or low temperatures. The determining factor will be the timing of convective development at any one location. The locations that see earlier development on a given day will have the most difficult time reaching 90 degrees.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through the overnight hours. As we move beyond 15z, another round of scattered showers and storms will fire up as temperatures warm. Low level convergence will be maximized south and west of Lake Pontchartrain and PROB30 wording with gusty winds and MVFR visibility and ceiling restrictions is in place at HUM, BTR, MSY, and NEW for a few hours between 15z and 23z tomorrow. Any impacts will be short-lived at an hour or less as the storm cells quickly pass through.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

With TS Eduoard forecast to pull away from the area, conditions in our western waters should be improving this afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to be fairly weak the next several days, with the main potential impacts to be daily rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Those will have the potential to produce locally higher winds and waves.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.