textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Expect high rain chances through the next several days. 7 day rainfall totals will range from 4 to 7 inches in the northwest to less than an inch of much of coastal MS and extreme SELA.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

The upper level pattern hasn't changed much lately. A cutoff low is located over the western Atlantic east of Florida while broad scale troughing encompasses nearly the entire CONUS except the southeastern portion of the country. Both low level southeast flow and mid level southwest flow continue to transport deep layer moisture into the local region. Evidence of this continues to be shown on the 00Z KLIX sounding, which had a PW of 1.76 inches (near the 90th percentile). This highlights just how moist and summer-like the airmass has become across the forecast area. Model soundings show little change, with PW values generally remaining above the 90th percentile.

Mid level lapse rates and deep layer shear remain too weak to support an organized severe weather threat. However, storms will still be capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates given the deep moisture profile and warm cloud depths in place. Localized hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour will be possible within the strongest cores during the afternoon and evening hours the next several days. The weak steering flow regime, combined with Corfidi vectors generally below 20 knots, may allow for slow moving or occasionally backbuilding convection, especially near boundary interactions. This raises concern for localized training of storms and isolated flash flooding, particularly in urban and poor drainage areas. Will continue to assess day by day any areas that may eventually need a Flood Watch, but at this point, areal extent of a significant flood threat in any 12-24 hour period isn't justifying a large watch.

Generally speaking, each day looks like a similar pattern with another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rainfall and localized flooding impacts. If there is going to be a day with less coverage, it will be Saturday, when precipitable water values are down a bit. Warm and humid conditions combined with considerable cloud cover should continue to limit overnight cooling. It will certainly feel like early summer as lows struggle to fall below the lower to middle 70s. A quick look at record warm low temperatures shows forecast lows may approach records at several locations across the CWA.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A very unsettled weather pattern will remain in place throughout the long term period. This will be entirely due to a slow moving upper level trough axis that will remain parked across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. A series of voriticty maxima will eject out of the base of the trough axis and sweep through the region, and waves of shower and thunderstorm activity will accompany these vorticity maxima as they move through. A review of model soundings indicates ample moisture and instability for these vorticity maxima to tap into. PWATS will range between 1.75 and 2 inches each day, or between the 75th and daily max values for this time of year. Additionally, mixed layer CAPE will range from 1500 to 2000 J/KG each day. This will be more than sufficient to support deep updraft development. Warm rain processes will also be in place, and this will help to amplify the heavy rain threat each day. Given the already saturated soil conditions, flash flooding will continue to be a concern in the long term period. Storm motion will be decent on Tuesday and Wednesday at around 10 to 15 mph to the north, so this will help limit the flooding potential a bit, but storm motion collapses next Thursday to 5 mph or less. Conditions also look more favorable for some back building storms to form on Thursday, so this date has the greatest potential to produce flooding issues in the area. We will continue to monitor the model trends over the coming days to see if there are any changes concerning the increased flood risk next Thursday. Temperatures will be near average through the period with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Most terminals at VFR this morning with a break in precipitation. The exceptions are KNEW and KBTR with MVFR ceilings. Moisture levels remain high, and expect as we get some sunshine this morning, cumulus will begin developing with bases around FL020. Those will probably lift to around FL030 by midday. Some question as to how extensive TSRA will be this afternoon. current guidance indicates that eastern portions of the area may actually see the greatest areal coverage. That would suggest a need for TEMPO TSRA at KGPT, and perhaps KASD and KNEW. Will use PROB30 elsewhere. For now, will end mention of precipitation around 02-03z Saturday. Would note that confidence in precipitation trends could be better. If winds decouple overnight (they didn't this morning), that would increase the threat of low clouds prior to sunrise Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will remain in place through this with high pressure generally centered east of the local coastal waters. Seas will remain well below any hazardous limits at 1 to 3 feet through this period. As we move into the back half of the week next week, we will see a weak cold front drift south towards the coast and stall along the northern Gulf Coast. That'll lead to both weaker winds overall as well as north or south winds depending on coastal zone's location in related to the boundary. A stronger upper level trough moves through the region next Saturday morning. Expect to see at least Exercise Caution, possibly low in Small Craft Advisory, conditions behind this front.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.