textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 453 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

- Widespread freezing conditions are expected again tonight. Areas north of the I-10/12 corridor will see up to 12 hours of freezing conditions with temperatures as low as 25 degrees. Residents in these areas should continue to protect the four Ps: people, pets, pipes, and plants. Areas south of the interstate could see up to 6 hours of freezing conditions with temperatures as low as 28 degrees. Residents in these areas should focus on protecting people, pets, and plants.

- The best rain chances will be Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as another cold front approaches and moves into the local area. Rain totals are currently forecast to be less than one inch and no significant impacts are expected.

- Following the cold front, there will be potential for freezing temperatures again Thursday and Friday morning, mainly along/north of the I-10/12 corridor. Strong winds in the wake of the cold front will also lead to hazardous conditions across the coastal waters.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The biggest forecast challenge in the short term is overnight temperatures tonight. The forecast is a little tricky owing to some competing forces at play. On the one hand, the cold and dry airmass will remain settled over the gulf coast with the surface high only sliding slightly southeastward. With light to calm winds and very dry dewpoints, radiational cooling would normally be extremely efficient. This is evidenced in MOS guidance which is carrying lows in the low to mid 20s across most northern areas and in the upper 20s to lower 30s most southern areas. On the other hand, it looks like warm air advection (WAA) will set in across the area at the 925 and 850 mb levels tonight, which tends to inhibit cooling.

Taking a closer look at the 925-850mb WAA component, the GFS indicates only very weak advection, with more substantial WAA setting in after 09z. The Euro is a slightly more aggressive with its WAA setting in closer to 06z. That being said, A LOT of cooling can happen between sunset and the 06-09z time frame, and don't think the WAA will be strong enough to completely turn things around before daybreak - especially for areas along/east of I-55.

Deterministic NBM has consistently been on the high end of the guidance suite with this air mass, and for the most part that has panned out. Think it may be have adjusted a little too warm tonight, though, considering the factors above. With that being said, will make some minor adjustments downward, mainly across areas east of the I-55 corridor and across portions of the south shore where WAA will be later to begin. Normally a 1-2 degree change wouldn't be worth noting, but in this case, forecast lows are sitting around freezing for southern areas and around hard freeze for northern areas, so it does make a difference regarding impacts.

Based on the adjustment, have upgraded the freeze watch to a warning and have also expanded it to include most of the NOLA metro. Have also issued a Cold Weather Advisory for St. Tammany, and the coastal MS counties. Similar temperatures are also forecast for Washington and Pike, Walthall, and Pearl River Counties. However, advisory criteria in these areas is 20 degrees rather than 25, so we won't get there. Additionally, since this is the third night of hard freeze messaging, everything should already be prepped.

Faster airmass moderation sets in during the day Monday as the high begins to slide east of the local area. Temperatures will be near normal for Monday afternoon and Monday night, with warmer than normal temperatures Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The warmer than normal temperatures won't last long as another cold front will move through the local area late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain chances will be the highest ahead of the front Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. Generally calling for less than an inch of rain, so we shouldn't see any significant issues. However, any storms that produce higher rainfall rates could lead to localized ponding in some of the typical urban and poor drainage areas.

In the wake of the cold front, expect another cold and dry airmass to build into the area. It won't be as cold as this most recent one, but there will be at least some threat of freezing temperatures across areas generally north of the I-10/12 corridor Wednesday night into Thursday morning and Thursday night into Friday morning. Current freeze probabilities are highest Thursday morning across northwestern areas and Friday morning across northeastern areas owing to the movement of the airmass.

Going into next weekend, the forecast honestly couldn't look better for the first "big" weekend of Mardi Gras parades in my opinion. With the local area currently forecast to remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft and a cool and dry airmass dominating the southeastern CONUS, it looks like we'll see no rain with near to above normal afternoon highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s, and overnight lows generally in the 40s. Granted it's about a full week out so things could certainly change, but optimism is currently high.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 453 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions in place, and expected to continue through the valid TAF period tomorrow evening. Wind speeds are generally expected to remain below 10 knots through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

As high pressure settles into the area, winds will continue to relax over all waters. High pressure will dominate the area through Monday morning before sliding eastward with return flow setting in late Monday. The next front will push through the waters Wednesday afternoon with a return to offshore flow. Exercise caution headlines appear likely ahead of the front Wednesday with advisory headlines likely its wake Wednesday evening through Thursday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ056>060-064>068-077-087>090.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ076-079-080.

GM...None. MS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ083>088.

GM...None.