textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through this afternoon, and again at the end of the week behind a strong cold front. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

- A strong cold front will move through the area late this week bringing potential for frost and the first freeze of the season for some areas mainly Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Overall, a weak surface flow across the region with mostly clear skies this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s as the upper levels provide us with a southwest flow, which will become slightly more active going into tonight and Wednesday. A positively tilted H5 trough currently resides over TX and guidance is trying to paint some lower end QPF over portions of the region Wednesday morning. A shower or two cannot be ruled out, but overall QPF is light...on average below 0.1" of rain. Of course this will not help the ongoing drought much, but it should help reduce fire weather at least for Wednesday with a bit more low level moisture in place.

Going into Thursday the synoptic pattern transitions with a broad scale trough setting up over the eastern US and a rather strong albeit a dry cold front through the region Thursday. This will increase the northerly flow with CAA develop over the region. WIth the uptick in winds expect a cold night Thursday night or Friday morning, but not as cold due to mixing. Friday looks very dry and cooler. Afternoon highs will only warm into the mid and upper 60s after starting off in the lower 40s. Behind the front with dry air moving back in, slightly higher winds and given antecedent conditions, expect fire weather potential to increase. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Over time, a large synoptic H3 upper trough will dig well into the deep south by Thu into Fri. The orientation of the west side of this trough will be from northern Manitoba province of Canada directly into Louisiana. This setup will cause cold frontal passages to just keep making each day of the extended cooler and cooler, but slowly. Temps will lower enough to not move outside the 60s Friday and Saturday. Low temps, especially on Saturday morning, could dip into the mid 30s, in the usual cool spots. Some patchy frost will certainly be possible.

A new upper trough will enter from the west coast over the weekend. As it moves east, it will run into the high ridging over the gulf coast from the Atlantic. Global models handle this somewhat different. The similarities are in a system actually developing and moving out of TX by the end of the weekend. The differences is in where this system moves. The GFS would like to take this in two different sections, one to the the north and one into the gulf. The EURO wants to just keep this in the gulf. There is a very good signal well past the extended portion of this weekend of another stronger synoptic system developing. The addition of this large scale system moving in, will have an effect on this weekends system. Pattern resolution says the weekend system should develop but weaken over time as it moves east and feels the return flow from a much stronger system developing to the west. This is well out side our fcast timeframe, but it is important in the overall evolution of the weekend system. (TE)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Fairly benign conditions with VFR conditions anticipated through this TAF cycle. Winds will be light and variable across the board. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 128 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Generally benign conditions will persist through the middle of the week as the area remains under the southern periphery of a surface high. Early Thursday a strong cold front will enter the coastal waters and surge into the Gulf. Behind it strong northwest winds will quickly develop with hazardous conditions developing over the marine zones Thursday and likely persisting through Friday night. Additionally, late this weekend expect easterly winds and seas to increase with most marine areas seeing Small Craft Advisories going into the new workweek. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.