textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Scattered showers and a few storms will return to the area Today. One or two storms could become strong, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rainfall.

- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area Friday through Sunday. While specific rainfall totals are still uncertain, heavy rain and at least localized flash flooding will be a threat. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates regarding this threat.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Deepening southeast flow on the southwest periphery of a broad low to mid-level ridge axis will continue to advect moisture into the region, generally below 700mb through Friday. This increasing moisture will help push PWATS up to around the median for early October, and daytime heating into the upper 80s and lower 90s will support the development of scattered showers and low-topped weak thunderstorms during peak heating hours. The convective activity will be somewhat suppressed due to the continued presence of an upper level ridge axis over the area that will continue to induce some subsidence and warming and drying of the upper levels throughout the period. This is evident on model soundings where mid- level lapse rates will remain below 5.0C/km and surface based CAPE will struggle to approach 1000 J/KG in the areas of greatest moisture content along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi both this afternoon and Friday afternoon. The convection will quickly wane in the evening as temperatures cool, and the overnight hours will be largely dry. Only the immediate coast could see a passing shower as offshore convective activity tries to move inland on the back of the southeast flow.

Moving into the weekend, a more unsettled pattern will emerge as deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Polo advect into the region from Texas. This will help to push PWATS to the daily max for both days. Both days will feel very muggy as highs warm into the mid 80s and dewpoints sit in the mid 70s. An overall weak forcing environment will be in place in the upper levels as an elongated positively tilted longwave trough axis slides through the Deep South. The influence of this trough will be greatest on Sunday as the trough axis slides through the region. In the low levels, a weak cold front will stall over the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday, and a broad area of low pressure will form in the western Gulf of Mexico where a more favorable baroclinic environment will be in place. As the low forms, the deep layer southeast flow regime over the area will intensify and this will favor moisture pooling along the front. Low level convergence along the front stretching along the I-10 corridor will serve as the primary focusing mechanism for shower and thunderstorm development. The highest likelihood for heavier rainfall to occur will be along and south of the front in coastal Mississippi and coastal Louisiana, including the New Orleans metro area. These areas have the highest PoP, near 100 percent, during the weekend. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of up to 5 inches can be expected over the two days along and south of the front.

Further inland and north of the stationary front, the lack of moisture pooling and low level convergence will greatly limit the heavy rain potential. Some isentropically induced rainfall development is expected due to the deep layer southeast flow in the mid and upper levels riding up and over the cooler low level airmass behind the front. As the upper level trough slides through on Sunday, a few elevated weak thunderstorms may try to form, but rainfall totals will generally run around an inch or less for the weekend.

Fortunately, the severe threat is near zero due to a lack of strong forcing and wind shear. Any storms will be lower topped and weak as they move through with brief heavy rainfall being the primary concern. Overall, we will be dealing with a weakly forced and highly saturated environment that will lead to some localized heavy rainfall and flooding events along or very near the stalled front.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Upper ridges will be centered over the Gulf and near Las Vegas Sunday evening. A shortwave trough axis will extend from New England to east Tennessee to central Texas. The cold front ahead of this trough looks to move through the area on Sunday. The movement of the front should push most precipitation offshore Monday. This should limit precipitation for at least Monday and Tuesday to coastal areas, or potentially entirely offshore. Seeing some indications of a wave of low pressure moving along the front over the Gulf on Wednesday, which could return rain to portions of the area on Wednesday.

Temperatures should remain a little closer to normal early next week with highs remaining in the 80s. Overnight lows will remain above normal, but not uncomfortably so. Highs in the New Orleans area will likely remain near or above 70, with lows in the 60s elsewhere.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Little change in thinking from the 06z forecast. Passing showers and storms will bring brief periods of gusty winds, lightning strikes, and reduced visibilties, and this risk is reflected with PROB30 wording at all of the terminals through around 22 to 23z today. Outside of the convective concerns, preaviling VFR conditions will be the rule at all of the terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A tightening pressure gradient will keep southeast winds elevated at 10 to 15 knots today and 15 to 20 knots tonight creating some choppy conditions in the waters. Winds will drop back to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow and remain in that range through Sunday. A front will then slip through the waters Sunday night and winds will shift to the northeast for Monday and Tuesday. Wind speeds will also rise back to 15 to 20 knots and seas will increase to 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 4 to 6 feet offshore creating another round of choppy seas. Showers and some thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage Thursday and especially Friday through the weekend as a tropical wave moves through the northern gulf and interacts with an approaching weak cold front.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.