textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

- Not much day to day change in temperatures for the rest of the workweek.

- Some potential for fog development this morning due to clear skies, light winds and very wet ground.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Upper trough now well to the east over Georgia and Florida, with a trailing shortwave moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. A strong upper ridge was over the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure was over the eastern Gulf to the south of Panama City. High pressure extended from the Carolinas to east Texas. There were some scattered clouds around at midnight CDT, with temperatures ranging from 65 at McComb to 75 at Lakefront Airport in New Orleans.

High pressure will slide slowly eastward across the area over the next 48 hours. The only sensible weather concern would be the potential for fog development around sunrise. Drier air has been a bit slower to arrive than originally expected, but it is in northwest portions of our CWA. If there's a most favored area for fog development, it will be over southwest Mississippi, but not confident enough to post advisories at this point of the night.

Mostly sunny skies across the area both today and Thursday, with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Morning lows Thursday morning will be a bit lower than this morning, as drier air will finally be in place. Friday morning lows should be a degree or two warmer than Thursday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Generally dry and warmer weather will continue through the weekend with highs sticking around the mid to upper 80s. Mostly zonal flow will hold over the southern CONUS through the weekend. Some weak ridging will start to build early next week. There is some disagreement in the global models into the start of the new week. The GFS/GEFS seems to be backing off with any significant POP chances, while the ECMWF bringing some light POP chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions across all forecast terminals at midnight CDT, although there are a few locations reporting clouds between FL040 and FL060. Those should continue to drop southward into the Gulf over the next few hours. The only real concern to speak of would be the potential for fog development around sunrise this morning. With clear skies, light winds and very wet ground, we'd acknowledge there's at least potential for development. At this point, if there are going to be significant flight restrictions, the most likely terminal for it would be KMCB (IFR). If any fog does develop, it should mix out pretty quickly by 15z. Beyond that point, it's VFR for the remainder of the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Winds will remain offshore into Thursday night, until the surface high to the north of Mississippi and Louisiana gets far enough east to allow winds to return to an onshore component. For Friday through the weekend, winds will be southeasterly, generally between 10 and 15 knots. The threat for thunderstorms may again return to the waters by the end of the weekend.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.