textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle and late part of the week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas.

- Nightly fog development is expected through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

As a persistent southeast flow ushers in very warm and humid air from the Gulf, the prospect of multiple rounds of fog will continue to be the primary forecast concern. Dewpoints have been on the rise tonight with values increasing a good 5 degrees over the course of the evening hours. This has allowed dewpoints to climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area. Boundary layer flow is a bit elevated currently at around 15 knots, and the warm air advection over the cooler waters has largely translated into a broad shield of low stratus over the eastern half of the CWA this evening. However, the wind field does look to decrease slightly overnight, and this could allow for the stratus deck to drop down to the surface creating an area of dense fog across the Northshore and Mississippi Coast. Given this concern, a dense fog advisory is in effect for these areas from 3 am through 9 am.

The very warm and humid airmass will continue to dominate the region on the western periphery of a broad deep layer ridge centered over the western Atlantic through Thursday night. Temperatures will remain well above average through the period with highs easily climbing into the 70s and lower 80s each afternoon. A few locations may even rise into the mid 80s over the weekend. Overnight lows will only cool into the low to mid 60s each night. Water temperatures in the sounds, lakes, and offshore waters in the mid 60s. As overnight lows cool toward the dewpoint and water temperature, the potential for sea fog to form offshore will remain high for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights. Light onshore flow of around 10 knots will help to transport this offshore sea fog onshore with the greatest impacts for locations along the coast and near the shores of the tidal lakes.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

This weekend into early next week, a region of enhanced forcing associated with favorable jet dynamics will become established over a region stretching from eastern Texas through the Akrlatex and into the Midwest. Confidence is increasing that the deepest moisture axis will remain displaced to the west and north of the forecast area. However, enough instability from daytime highs climbing into the low to mid 80s over inland areas will support the development of scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms starting Friday afternoon and continuing each afternoon thereafter. Winds will remain around 10 knots from the southeast through the weekend and into early next week. These winds will continue to advect the warm and humid air over the cooler nearshore waters, so conditions will remain favorable for advection fog to impact the region each night through Monday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A broad shield of low stratus with ceilings of 300 to 500 feet will continue to overspread the area the next few hours, and all of the terminals will be in IFR status by 08z. Winds remain somewhat elevated now, but these winds are projected to decrease slightly before daybreak. This will allow for some lower visibilities of 1 to 3 miles to impact the terminals as the stratus builds down a bit. These conditions will persist through at least 15z due to the advective component of the fog and low stratus. After 15z, enough daytime heating and boundary layer mixing will develop to clear the fog and lift the stratus deck to between 2500 and 3500 feet. These conditions will persist through the remainder of the afternoon hours. However, after 00z, another round of low stratus will begin to overspread the terminals. By 06z, nearly all of the terminals will be in IFR status again.

MARINE

Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The potential for sea fog to impact the coastal waters will increase through the week as a persistent southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots ushers in a much warmer and more humid airmass over the cooler nearshore waters. Fog conditions could start as early as tonight, but they will be more likely from Tuesday night through the weekend. This fog may turn dense at times and impact navigational operations. Outside of the fog concern, the lighter winds will keep seas in check at 4 feet or less.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ039-071- 076-079>082.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532- 534-536.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ077-083- 084-086-087.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534- 536.