textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 519 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM CST Monday morning for areas west of Interstate 55 and Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes. Potential fog development will be a concern for the next several nights/days.

- Dry weather is expected until Wednesday, when a quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances. An additional weather system will bring a threat of showers and storms Friday or Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

The eastern upper trough has moved off the Atlantic Coast. A strong shortwave was digging southeastward through eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Ridging was over the Rockies, with an upper low remaining off the coast of Baja California. At the surface, high pressure was over much of the Gulf, with weak low pressure over Missouri. High clouds were moving across much of the area this evening ahead of the Kansas/Missouri shortwave, which has held temperatures mainly in the 50s, and to this point, has precluded any widespread fog development.

The main issue during the overnight hours is whether we see widespread fog develop. As long as mid and high clouds continue over the area, we won't see much development. Confidence in development isn't high enough across eastern areas to expand Dense Fog Advisory, and not much value to gain in canceling it this early where it's out. Bottom line is no change in advisory parameters at forecast issuance, but mid shift will continue to monitor.

The Kansas/Missouri shortwave will continue to move southeastward, passing to the northeast of the local area and will already be over the Bahamas Tuesday morning. Shortwave ridging will build over the Gulf Monday night and Tuesday. The Baja low will open up into a shortwave and move into Texas Tuesday night. The slower movement of this feature will likely keep any significant threat of rain out of the area through Tuesday night. We'll once again have a threat of fog development overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The temperature forecast is a bit of a puzzle, especially for high temperatures. High temperatures the last several days have run well above the NBM deterministic values, which had been pretty close to the 50th percentile. The actual highs had run between the NBM 75th and 90th percentiles. Tonight, the NBM deterministic has been closer to the NBM 25th percentile. The NAM numbers are the only ones that really support the NBM deterministic solution tonight. I've bumped the Monday/Tuesday high temperatures up a couple degrees to between NBM50/75, which is a little closer to the new MAV numbers. It's notable that even the NBM75 would have a decent portion of the west half of the area hitting 80 on Tuesday, with NBM90 in the lower 80s. The only thing holding me from using NBM75 or NBM90 Tuesday would be the forecast cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

The southern stream shortwave/low near Baja California will move across the local area Wednesday. Precipitable water values will be in the 1.0 to 1.2 range. There's a little instability but almost no shear. Can't rule out a little thunder, but will hold with rain showers for now, and many areas may remain dry.

Shortwave ridging will build across the area for much of Thursday and Friday. Most precipitation for those days should remain north of the area, but the threat is non-zero. More of a concern would be another southern stream system for Saturday into Sunday. This evening's GFS seems to be a little slower, trending toward previous ECMWF solutions, which would bring a threat of showers and storms to the area Saturday night (hopefully after midnight) into Sunday morning. At present, forecast soundings from the GFS would support shear and instability being significant enough to bear monitoring. Still too early for specifics though. With still some differences in medium range solutions, won't divert from NBM PoPs at this time for next weekend.

Temperatures will continue to run well above normal through the extended period, and wouldn't be surprised if 80 degrees is breached on more than one occasion. Overnight lows are likely to be well into the 50s on most nights and could be as much as 15F above normal. May not be much need for jackets this week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A low stratus deck and some associated stratus build down fog has begun to develop at most of the terminals in the past hour. Only GPT will remain in VFR status through the morning hours. Prevailing IFR conditions will linger through 15 to 16z at HUM, BTR, and MCB due to ceilings of 200 to 400 feet and visibilities of around 1 mile. At HDC, ASD, NEW, and MSY, preaviling MVFR conditions due to ceilings of 1000 to 1500 feet and visibilities of 3 to 5 miles can be expected through 15z. Prevailing VFR conditions will then in place at all of the terminals by 18z and these conditions will last into the evening hours. Tonight, mainly after 07z, another around of low stratus and fog will develop at the terminals as the combination of light winds and high humidity remains in place. This event will be more widespread with IFR and lower conditions in place at all of the terminals by 10z as dewpoints rise into the 50s on the Mississippi coast.

MARINE

Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Onshore flow will likely be in place all week. More favorable wind/wave conditions for marine operations are expected, but the threat of fog development will be increasing for the next several days.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037- 046>048-056>060-065>067-083>086.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.