textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 158 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

- A Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) of severe storms is ongoing for the whole area this morning, with damaging winds and tornadoes being the primary threats. This drops to a marginal risk at 6am Saturday. Please stay weather aware tomorrow and have multiple ways of receiving warnings.

- In addition to the severe weather threat, there is also a threat of flash flooding through Saturday morning. There is a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 3 out of 4) for Walthall and Pike Counties with the remainder of the area in a slight risk. A Flood Watch remains through 9am Saturdayg from along I-59 and westward where we can expect widespread 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts above 6 inches.

- After the front passes on Saturday, gusty offshore winds will filter in behind it. Small craft advisories will likely be needed starting on Sunday, as the winds and waves will be dangerous for small vessels.

UPDATE

Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

A portion of the flood watch will be canceled this morning. There will still be the possibility of up to an inch of rainfall, but there have been no heavy rainfall amounts previously that would cause issues. A dense fog advisory will be brought up for some coastal waters and protected waters as winds ease and conditions become conducive for fog production over these waters by sunrise through about 10am maybe later.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The polar trough has combined with the subtropical trough which is efficiently streaming deep moisture from the Pacific through the south central CONUS then well into the NE Atlantic coast. The polar trough has now shifted its strongest winds to the east side of the trough which is beginning to make it progressive. There are still several hours to go before the risk of severe wx lowers enough to not worry about it. But as we move through the morning hours, this will be the case and a line of broken sh/ts will be the result. This is also why SPC is lowering the risk level across the area for Sat morning after 6am. So this will be a slow progress toward stability. The heavy rainfall threat will also slowly lower as we move through the morning hours Sat with the last gasp being storms along the frontal interface. The cold front will enter the CWA around 8am Sat and exit land areas ~5pm Sat. Any rainfall left behind the front will be light with no issues for strong or severe. The front moving through during the day will give high temps that will be cooler west and warmer east. But all areas will fall to the 40s Sat night as winds should keep the area a bit warmer than it would be without them.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday night) Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

By Sunday, temps will only climb into the mid to upper 50s, so a chilly day in store. Winds will ease through the day Sunday and decouple overnight Sun night into Monday morning. This will help radiational cooling become maximized allowing temps to fall to the lower 30s north to the low 40s south. Cold air will settle in for Monday only allowing highs to reach the mid 50s. Mon night will bring temps to the lower 30s again north and low 40s south. After Monday, a slow warming trend will take place with no real issues expected the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

MVFR cigs will slowly lower tonight and Sat morning into IFR and possibly LIFR levels through noon Sat. A cold front will move through shifting winds from southerly to NW and cigs will respond by lifting into MVFR levels with fropa through each site. Vis will be obstructed via SHRA and TSRA at all sites unitl fropa Sat.

MARINE

Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Moderate onshore flow will continue through tonight until a cold front moves through Saturday with a window of strong northerly winds of 20-30kt, a small craft advisory will be hoisted starting 6pm Sat ending 6am Monday. Storms will accompany the front as it moves through late Sat and some of these could have strong rapid wind increases with rapid directional changes. Since there have been several days of onshore flow prior to the cold front, we will have a well set up fetch out of the south. With winds quickly veering around to the north-northwest immediately behind the cold front there will be a window of confused seas. The greatest potential appears to be in the outer waters (20-60nm) and west of the mouth of the MS River. Winds will slowly lower through Tue while a surface high moves into the northern gulf waters late Tue. A west wind will begin as the high moves SE by Wednesday. West winds will rise ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving through late Wed bringing winds around to NW 20-25kt Wed night into Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 70 39 56 31 / 80 0 0 0 BTR 71 42 59 33 / 80 0 0 0 ASD 74 43 60 32 / 90 10 0 0 MSY 76 49 60 41 / 80 10 0 0 GPT 73 45 59 36 / 80 10 0 0 PQL 75 44 60 31 / 90 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ036-037-039- 046>048-071-079-081-083-085.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ069>071-077-083.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.