textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.

- A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing cooler and drier conditions of the weekend. Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions, with gale conditions possible.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Saturday as gusty northeasterly winds combine with min RH values in the upper 20s and low 30s across the area.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

No changes to ongoing conditions today into Fri. But the cold front that is moving our way will begin to enter the area by noon Fri or shortly thereafter. Northerly winds will already be here before the front, so the only way to find it will be thermal and moisture gradient, and if you look at any model, that is easy to see. Winds and cooler temps will flood over the area as it moves through, but as usual for October, there won't be much in the way of sh/ts. The one thing that will occur will be at least a cloud line along the frontal axis and there is a very small possibility of one or two showers along this cloud line that won't amount to much. The high behind the front will move in over the top of it bridging itself with the high to the east of the front causing strong stability and quickly lowering chances of getting any rain with this system.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Saturday through Monday, high pressure will build over the area. Looking at the models, little to no rainfall is expected as a result. Temperatures will be gradually warming each day of the long term forecast. Highs will be in the mid 70s Saturday and then climb to the mid 80s by Monday afternoon. Conditions should feel more pleasant overall.

Tuesday and Wednesday, some low rain chances return, but high pressure remains. Some popup showers will be possible during the afternoon hours both of these days, mainly south of I-10/12. Some lightning may occur as well, but the storms should be pretty suppressed overall. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than average with highs in the mid 80s. MSW

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Most terminals will fall into IFR and LIFR again this morning around sunrise and should slowly move back into VFR by mid to late morning. Cloud cover and winds may be able to keep FG from occurring tonight into Fri morning, but MVFR cigs/vis can't be ruled out.

MARINE

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

High pressure will keep winds relatively calm through today. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapidly building seas. Small craft Advisory conditions are likely through the weekend, with gale conditions possible across portions of the offshore waters late Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday but remain elevated into early next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ529-531.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ531.