textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts and some localized flooding issues are expected, mainly along and south of I-10. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates regarding this threat. Remember, Turn Around Don't Drown!

- Larger than normal tide ranges and onshore flow will produce minor coastal flooding especially on southeast facing shore lines during the high tide cycle the next several nights. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in place.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

No change to the overall short term forecasting and discussion of conditions that we've been putting out the past several forecast cycle. We are still looking at a setup of very high Precipitable Water in the atmosphere, near record values on the order of 2.5-2.6 inches. The moisture is being driven by onshore, return flow out of the Gulf that is traveling around the periphery of high pressure in the Atlantic and eastern Gulf. A low pressure center and associated troughing and frontal boundary is over the southern plains and it is tapping into tropical moisture from activity in the Pacific. A weak jet streak associated with the troughing will position itself with the right rear quadrant over our area will provide added lifting mechanism to give the moisture an upward boost. We are confident that rain will be occurring across the area through the weekend. The real question is how much will it rain. A gradient of heavy rain totals through Sunday night into Monday morning will be on the order of 2 inches over our northwest parishes/counties ramping up to 4-6 inches over coastal LA and MS. Isolated areas of higher intensity will be possible with worst- case totals up to 8-10 inches in coastal LA and MS. The rain is not expected to be a constant presence through the weekend, rather there will be some lulls with weaker and stronger periods of rainfall. This overall setup is definitely favorable for isolated flash flooding especially in low lying and/or poorly drained areas. If there is any good news in the forecast, it is that conditions do not support any severe activity, although some lightning may occur along with a stronger storm cell.

With the rainfall and the front in the area, we are looking at high temperatures in the mid-80s, but the overnight lows still hang in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

By Monday night the aforementioned front will effectively stall out in the northern Gulf. Through the week, it will drift further south and this will set up another rain intensity gradient of no rain in our southwestern MS counties to 30-40% PoPs over the coastal parishes that gradually decrease to around 20%.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Currently VFR at all forecast terminals. Scattered showers continue to move northwestward, but with the loss of surface heating, anticipate some loss of areal coverage over the next couple hours, and may have several hours with very little precipitation over land. Has been very little lightning near our terminals this afternoon, and will only carry TEMPO or PROB30 SHRA this evening.

Surge of deeper moisture is expected to arrive overnight. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop prior to sunrise, with at least scattered SHRA/-TSRA developing near shore and moving inland during the morning. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA to be the rule of the day with MVFR conditions widespread and occasionally IFR or lower conditions possible.

MARINE

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A tightening pressure gradient over the coastal waters that will form in response to a developing low pressure system in the western Gulf. This will allow southeast winds to remain elevated near 15 knots with higher gusts through Saturday. Very choppy seas of 4 to 6 feet will accompany these winds in the open Gulf waters. These conditions have prompted issuance of Small Craft Exercise Caution in the open waters. The persistent southeasterly winds combined with a high tide cycle, we have also issued a Coastal Flood Advisory.

The lakes and sounds will see slightly lower winds closer to 10 knots and choppy conditions through Saturday. Winds will briefly relax to 10 knots or less on Sunday as a front stalls along the coast. This front is expected to then slowly push through the waters on Monday and Tuesday. Winds will turn northeasterly behind the front and increase back to 15 to 20 knots as cooler and drier air advects over the warm waters. Another low will form along the front by Wednesday, and this should increase winds in small craft advisory range of 20 to 25 knots. Seas will also increase to 5 to 7 feet by Wednesday leading to rough conditions. Thunderstorms will also be around today through Monday, but the only main concerns will be from lightning and heavy rainfall reducing visibilities.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ064-070-076-078-091-093-095-097.

GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.