textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 713 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area through this afternoon. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected off and on through midweek next week. Gusts up to gale force will be possible early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 713 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Updating zones for weather and cloud cover variables. Most areas are still seeing virga but there is some layer moistening occurring over the western quarter of the area allowing rain to make it to the sfc a lot sooner than expected. We will bring this eastward with time this morning about 8 to 10 hours sooner than previous forecast. This is going to be stratiform rain, so nothing heavy just an earlier onset.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Quiet and cool night in store. By 04z temps were already down into the 40s and lower 50s across most of the area with a few isolated areas in the cooler drainage areas in the 30s. Temps will likely continue to drop a little more overnight but will slow down especially as clouds continue to build in from the west.

As for the forecast the main forecast concerns is the s/w that will move into the region later today and through the region Monday along with increasing hazardous marine conditions. Our main antagonist is currently moving over the TX panhandle and it looks like it will be able to undercut the ridge overnight tonight and early Monday as it slides into the Lower MS Valley. The mid lvl jet max is still just downstream of the trough axis and thus likely why it will have enough punch to keep driving ESE. It will start to open up and merge with the deeper L/W trough just before it pushes off the east coast. The biggest problem is because of the ridging just ahead, our recent cold front, and sfc high to the north moisture will not be able to recover fast enough ahead of it but also with the orientation that this s/w takes it will lead to a majority of the strongest support remaining just off to the south. With that we will likely see a continuation of the rain remaining just south of the area. Even with a well defined disturbance because of that orientation (it is a highly positively titled trough axis by early/midday Monday) hghts actually appear to remain fairly unchanged. The best hght falls and mid the mid lvl jet will ridge the northern Gulf. Still anticipate some isolated to scattered light showers but overall the heaviest rain looks to remain just off to our west and south.

This disturbance will likely lead to the development of a sfc low over the northwestern Gulf this evening but how well defined and strong it will be is uncertain. Some models are showing a small but quickly developing well defined sfc low however, there appears to be some feedback issue going on. This is also leading to rather strong easterly winds developing over much of the coastal waters and over a prolonged time frame. This seems a little aggressive especially given how small this area of low pressure may be. The bigger influence is likely the large broad sfc high building down which will be centered over KY but it will stretch from the southern Plains, south to the Gulf Coast, and east-southeast off the SC coast. Now that is not to say that there is a sfc low that develops just not as confident it will be as well defined or as deep as some of the models show.

Temperatures will start to moderate tonight and Monday night however highs both today and tomorrow will likely remain fairly similar with h925 temps of 7-9C which should result in highs in the lower to mid 60s for much of the area both days. Lows will be a little warmer tonight than they will be this morning thanks to the increase in relative humidity and increasing winds. That said we will still see lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s over much of the area. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Medium range models from earlier today were in very good agreement through the week however that is not what we would like to hear because that will keep the dry weather pattern in place. It looks like the next best chance for a system to bring rain may be late next weekend or the beginning of Thanksgiving week. No major disagreements with the NBM at this time so no adjustments have been made.

As our disturbance continues to slide east and merge with the east coast trough we will see mid lvl ridging build in. By Wednesday morning the ridge will dominate the area from the TX coast northeast across the Lower MS Valley and into the OH and TN Valley's. This will slowly moderate temps with highs climbing from the the lower 70s Tuesday to the mid upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday and maybe even a few locations touching 80/81 by Friday. We will also see moisture slowly creep up and thus morning lows will trend a degree or 2 warmer each morning going from near 40 and lower 50s Tuesday morning to 50s across the entire area Friday morning, maybe even a few locations remaining in the lower 60s.

There will be a couple of disturbances coming out of the Pacific across the 4 corners this week. These will all basically ride just over the ridge into the central Plains and Mid MS Valley. The ridge will become elongated from southwest to northeast eventually stretching from the western Gulf to the Carolina's but it will be stubborn and keep all rain out of the area. As we head into weekend the forecast is highly questionable as the models start to diverge as they struggle with the numerous Pac systems coming towards the region. This should eventually help lead to a more persistent west coast trough and eastern coast ridge with southwest flow aloft and hopefully some better rain potential. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

OVC cigs will cover the entire area today and begin lowering by late morning into the afternoon hours. Some virga is expected with some of these cigs today and -RA will show up at the sfc by late afternoon into the overnight hours. -RA will be timed and should remain along and west of a line from MCB to NEW to the gulf. Some cigs in this prementioned area could fall to MVFR levels while -RA is ongoing. Elsewhere, cigs and vis should remain in VFR through this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Winds continue to persist around 15-20 kt over most of the coastal waters. This supports Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines however a more impactful period of hazardous marine conditions looks likely late Sunday and continuing through at least the middle of next week. The approaching disturbance will support the development of a surface low over the northwestern Gulf. Combine that with high pressure building south and we will see a tightening of the pressure gradient over the northern Gulf. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots and seas of 6 to 10 feet will be possible across the open Gulf waters Monday, with higher gusts potentially approaching or exceeding gale force. How strong a surface low develops is in question as there may be some convective feedback leading a deeper surface lown than what may actually occur and thus we will keep the Gale Watch out for now. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all other marine areas due to the forecast persistent pressure gradient between the surface low and high pressure to the north. May not see much appreciable relief until the end of next week. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ529-531>536-541-543-557-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ531>536-541-543-557-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for GMZ553-554-570-572-575.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ553-554-570-572-575.