textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025 - Temperatures will begin moderating Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday through at least Saturday.

- Marine conditions improving on Tuesday.

- Little or no rain expected through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A broad upper trough has reached the Atlantic Coast, with ridging over the Rockies and Pacific Coast. There is a southern stream shortwave that extended from Oklahoma to Arizona this evening. At the surface, the axis of a surface ridge extended from western New York to east Texas. A fairly thin layer of clouds around 925 mb, or about 3,000 feet, continued to sink southward across Mississippi into eastern and central Louisiana. These clouds are holding temperatures in the 40s this evening, with dew points in the upper 30s.

Models have struggled with this shallow moist layer and the resulting cloud cover. It now appears that it could be mid to late morning Tuesday before the southern stream shortwave to our north and west suppresses the moisture around the 925 mb level far enough south to get rid of the clouds. In some respects, that would be a good thing, as it would lower the threat of freezing temperatures around sunrise. Unless we get quite a bit more clearing in the next few hours, overnight lows are at least one category too cold. Still could get some patchy frost in areas that see a break in the clouds for an hour or two.

The axis of the surface ridge will shift off the Louisiana coast by Tuesday evening, with onshore winds returning. A strong upper trough will move through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley on Wednesday. This will force another frontal boundary through the area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. There's very little in the way of moisture with this front, with precipitable water values remaining near or below the 50th percentile climatologically.

Highs Tuesday afternoon will likely top out near or just below 60, assuming the clouds depart as expected. Most of the area should see lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday night, with highs 65 to 70 on Wednesday. Lows Wednesday night will be a couple degrees cooler than Wednesday morning...at worst.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

With the longwave trough axis well to our east for the end of the week, the upper flow will be west-northwesterly, which should keep the area mostly dry. It will also serve to shunt the coldest air well to the east of the area, continuing the trend we noted last night through at least the first half of the weekend. Another strong trough will move through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio River Valley over the weekend. This will push another cold front through the area, probably Saturday night or on Sunday. Looking at moisture distribution based on forecast soundings, it looks like it is going to be difficult to get any significant precipitation in our area through early next week. If it is going to happen, it'll be with the weekend cold front. Maybe enough to redistribute dust on vehicles...quarter inch totals might be pushing things.

Wednesday's frontal passage will probably knock the Thursday high temperatures back a few degrees from Wednesday highs, but that would just put them around normal. Friday and Saturday highs look to be much above normal, with most areas getting into the lower 70s...at least...on Friday. If we get a good bit of sunshine on Saturday, mid 70s look reasonable. NBM highs are 3-6F cooler than the ECMWF and GFS 12z/08 operational guidance highs for Friday and Saturday, and wouldn't be surprised to see the NBM numbers drift upward in the next 12 hours. Sunday's highs will be dependent on timing of the frontal passage. Monday looks cooler, with below normal temperatures, for now.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Terminals generally at MVFR and likely to continue at most or all terminals until perhaps late morning before scattering out. While there may be a few breaks in the clouds overnight, do not expect SCT to be a prevailing condition for more than an hour or two at best until perhaps 15z. Cloud bases should also lift above FL030 beyond that point. If skies were to clear and winds decouple around sunrise, there would be at least a limited threat of radiation fog development, but that is a low probability solution at this point.

MARINE

Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Will continue Small Craft Exercise Caution through 09z as winds and seas gradually subside. Conditions should be more favorable for marine operations, at least regarding winds and waves for Tuesday through Thursday. Once onshore flow develops at mid-week, that can be a signal for sea fog development during. At this time, the only window where dew points might support fog development would be perhaps Friday and Saturday.

The next frontal passage will probably be over the weekend, and may need wind/wave headlines at that point.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 57 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 59 40 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 59 39 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 57 44 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 56 42 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 58 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.