textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1123 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Severe weather possible Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Currently watching a surface cold front drop southward across the CWFA. The front is slowing and should anchor near the coast overnight tonight and into Thursday. Ahead of the front, plenty of moisture pooling is taking shape. Southerly return flow is also keeping ample moisture over the cooler Gulf waters leading to some dense sea fog over the Gulf zones. The adjacent land zones are too seeing fog, but much of the lower visibilities look to stay just offshore...so no need for a landbased fog headline at least for now.

The surface front remains stalled through the short term as the H5 pattern is nearly parallel to the front orientation. On Thursday temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but still generally above average for mid Feb. In terms of fog the signal is a bit better on Thursday and perhaps Friday night as the surface front begins to slowly lift northward again as a warm front. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Going into the upcoming weekend the upper level pattern will begin to shift to a more active southwesterly flow being on the eastern periphery of a rather robust upper level shortwave over Texas. This feature will slide eastward through the day on Saturday with a surface low developing within the leeside trough of the Rockies. By this point, the aforementioned surface warm front will have lifted northward over the AR Ozarks leaving our region well within the warm sector. As the surface low spreads eastward, a surface cold front will also advance toward our region late Saturday and into the early morning Sunday. This will lead to numerous showers and storms developing along and ahead of the front. Taking a look at the severe weather parameters, considering it looks to be a more overnight event, some instability questions do arise. However, shear doesn't look like a problem at all. An H85 LLJ of 40-50kts develops across the region and with the surface low helping back surface winds, SRH values are also favorable. The main question is during this time will the convection be surface based? Globals suggest maybe, which could lead to both a damaging wind threat and a tornado threat. On the backside of the system late Sunday the cold core low moves just north of the I10 corridor, which could provide another round of weak convection with perhaps some small hail possible before the system finally departs the region Sunday evening.

As for winds on Saturday and Sunday, kept them unchanged from the previous forecast package. At these levels an advisory would likely be needed at least for the southshore and immediate coast. By late Sunday the pressure gradient breaks down as the surface low continues downstream being replaced with a very modest surface high pressure over the MO Ozarks. This surface high quickly moves east by Monday and into Tuesday allowing for a warm return flow to develop. Although the front does pass through, the air mass behind the front is only modestly dry/cool so it will not take much in the medium range to keep temps on the warmer side. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VIS/CIG reductions are anticipated...more so CIG/low stratus through the morning hours. MVFR/IFR will likely be the rule at least until around mid morning or so. Otherwise, winds will transition behind a front to a more easterly or northeasterly direction. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Onshore flow will likely be in place through the remainder of the week with high pressure centered generally east of the region. The threat of fog development will continue into this upcoming weekend. Dense fog advisories will remain possible. Small Craft Advisory conditions or even potentially gales will be possible Saturday into Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks from west to east across the Gulf Coast States.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ550-552-555- 570-572-575.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ552-555-570- 572-575.