textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 702 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- A mostly dry pattern is expected to start the week. Temperatures will also increase well into the 90s and near 100 with feels like temperatures nearing 110 degrees during the afternoon Monday and Tuesday.

- Eyes are turning toward the northeast Gulf where Tropical Depression 2 has formed and is forecast to spread westward toward our general area through midweek. Impacts are still low confidence, but an increase in rainfall with breezy conditions along with potential coastal flood are becoming more and more possible with time.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Going into the start of the new workweek we have enough to discuss through the period. First, heat/humidity and increasing convection during the afternoon. Second, the newly named Tropical Depression 2 over the northeast Gulf, we will start with heat first.

The area continues to reside under a weak high pressure aloft. This is helping warm us up, but also what's really helping is the daily northerly flow suppressing land/water contrast. Although surface humidities are still high, they are actually a bit lower than the last few weeks. That said, they are high enough and now temps are getting closer to 100F every afternoon we continue with the heat advisories at least through Monday, if not beyond. Additionally, before we get into the newly named TD...outside of this feature there will be at least some modest subsidence, which will also help keep the region slightly warmer.

Okay, now probably what you came here for. Tropical Depression Two. Overall, the system has a nice mid level spin and the latest ASCAT pass indicated a weak elongated surface low has, indeed, developed. This plus the consistent convection is enough to name the system a depression. The system is in an area of weak steering so it has having a tough time really finding motivation to move far fast. In time this will change as a strong H5 ridge develops over the Red River toward midweek. Prior to this, the system is forecast to develop very slowly into a Tropical Storm and eventually move into our waters mid to late week. Guidance has been a bit bearish up until last night when all globals and respective ensembles finally came into align with the AI guidance.

The upper levels are going to be fairly hostile for this system. Only marginally favorable conditions are found in the upper levels. Both dry air aloft and northeasterly wind shear increasing to nearly 30+ knots as it tries to strengthen...it will find it hard to intensify (no rapid intensification). Still, given the position and expected intensity as a mid range TS (name would be Bertha) it's possible to see minor to moderate impacts with heavy rainfall, marine, and coastal impacts being the primary story. There is still some time to adjust the forecast so be sure to check back in. For now confidence is gradually increasing, but the northerly wind shear may limit some impacts, which may offset the system causing a more asymmetric feel leading to more of the heavily rain and winds remaining along and south of I10...perhaps even further south along the immediately Louisiana Coast. In time, but for now everyone should stay up to date with the current forecasts from our friends at NHC. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Going into Thursday the upper level ridge will continue to direct the overall mean level flow over the region with a more easterly winds aloft. This will help TD 2 move swiftly downstream and toward the upper Texas Coast by late Thursday and Friday. At the same time models show a surface front trying to slide southward generally toward the southeast US, but GFS stalls it over our region and ECM stalls it over the Appalachians. Although one solution is a bit wetter, both still suggest the need for POPs to address the diurnal convection. Also, temperatures will begin to rebound once again with subsidence behind the departing tropical system and the strong ridge building over the area once again. As the period ends there is some hope that both the GFS and ECM are agreeing on something finally. That would be a secondary strong front makes it closer to the region again increasing POPs, but also limiting heat a bit as well. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions in place and likely to remain for most or all of the forecast period. May be a bit better areal coverage of thunderstorms late Monday afternoon, but probably still not enough to justify more than a PROB30 that far out in the forecast period. Did not mention at KMCB and KBTR as they may be far enough west to not get into deep convection.

MARINE

Issued at 116 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Going into the week, eyes will sift to the northeast Gulf where the newly form Tropical Depression 2 will meander of the next day or so. Eventually, the storm will begin to move westward over the northern and north central gulf coast and is forecast to increase in intensity to a tropical storm. As the system moves over our local waters, expect winds and seas to increase with tropical storm conditions possible for most if not all the local waters. The system will move east of the region later Thursday and conditions should improve going into the upcoming weekend. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.