textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Behind the front that passed Saturday evening, winds will be gusty (20-25mph), especially for the southshore and river parishes. A Wind Advisory is in effect through the afternoon hours for areas near and south of I-10. Low relative humidities combined with the gusty winds will produce critical fire conditions across our area today and again Monday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today and again on Monday.

- A significantly cooler airmass has arrived and will be in place through Tuesday. The coldest morning will be Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions across areas north of the I-10/12 corridor. A Freeze Warning may be necessary Tuesday morning, given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their dormancy.

- We will warm up beyond Tuesday back to above normal temperatures by the end of the week. We will also see our next rain chances Thursday and Friday with a cold front.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Upper trough axis extended from Ohio to near Atlanta this morning with ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure extended from the Dakotas to Texas. Clear skies this morning with temperatures mid 40s to lower 50s. Windy conditions were in place, with sustained 20 to 25 mph winds and gusts as high as 35 mph in some areas.

High pressure will only slowly move eastward, with the center of the surface high over the area Tuesday morning. Clear skies will continue across the area. Main concerns will be the potential for a freeze tonight and tomorrow night, and potential fire weather concerns tomorrow.

We are pretty much right at the average last freeze date from Baton Rouge to Gulfport and well short of it (March 12th) at McComb. Questionable whether we fall below freezing at Gulfport and Baton Rouge tonight, but more confident it happens tomorrow night. Current plain is no warning tonight, but we'll probably need one tomorrow night. Wind chill values are also rather borderline for tonight, and little or no wind expected tomorrow night. Evening shift will monitor observational trends for tonight.

Regarding fire weather concerns, Red Flag Warning in effect today. We'll meet the criteria for minimum relative humidity tomorrow (20 to 25 percent), but winds are more borderline, especially western portions of the area. Coordinated with state forestry people and will carry another Red Flag Warning tomorrow, considering antecedent conditions.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

High pressure will be centered over the eastern Gulf and Florida on Tuesday, with the local area remaining in northwesterly upper level flow. That will get reinforced Thursday, as a strong shortwave moves through the Ohio River Valley. This pushes another cold front through the area Thursday, with a chance of rain. Again, this isn't expected to be a heavy rainfall event, with areas that do receive rain likely receiving less than one half inch. The area that needs rain most, the northwest corner of the area, has the least chance of actually getting any. Instability looks to be rather meager, so not extremely concerned about severe weather at this point.

Tuesday will still be a bit on the cool side, but beyond that point, we'll be back to above normal temperatures for the second half of the week through next weekend. Even the cooler solution of the GFS for Thursday/Friday only knocks temperatures back to around normal for a couple days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions through the period. The only aviation concerns will be wind related, with gusts to 30 knots or higher likely this afternoon at most terminals. Some potential for LLWS overnight where surface winds drop below 10 knots. Winds will again be on the gusty side during the daytime hours Monday, with gusts around 25 knots possible as early as 15-16z.

MARINE

Issued at 1203 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Allowed the Gale Warning to expire. There could be a few gusts exceeding 35 knots this afternoon over the outer waters, but don't expect them to be frequent. Did extend the Small Craft Advisory through the daytime hours tomorrow, and will need some sort of headlines beyond that point through tomorrow night. Looks like Tuesday may be the only day where no headlines are necessary during this forecast period. Winds likely to increase again Wednesday and Thursday with the next cold front approaching the waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LAZ046-056>060- 064>070-076>078-085>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MSZ085>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.