textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Extreme heat is expected this weekend and into next week. Heat advisories have been issued for heat index values of around 110 degrees for today. Heat advisories may be re-issued into next week.

- Scattered storms will remain around the area through the weekend. These storms will be capable of producing isolated areas of severe weather and flooding rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Today will not be a lot different from yesterday. A weak cap has kept things from firing early but as temps get into the low to mid 90s, the bouyancy is strong enough to break this cap and things get going(trigger temp). There is another feature that will help today and we can already see this occurring this morning. Outflow boundaries litter the map and this will give some extra forcing to help get things going even during the most stable morning hours as the cap strength is not as strong as yesterday. A heat advisory has been issued for the whole area. Where these storms are ongoing, heat will not be a problem, but when these end or areas where they have not visited, temps will feel a lot hotter. Any of these storms could produce severe weather with strong winds and tornadoes/waterspouts being the primary severe variables. With all areas saturated, the high rain rates with all of these storms will be very capable of flooding rainfall where they occur. The area that is best suited today is over the northern tier of counties/parishes along the LA/MS state line. This east-west line has the weakest cap strength across the area so it does not take much to get something going there. Eventhough the cap strength is better to the south of this line, strong heating will be enough to break it later today. So basically, two main areas of storms should be developing at different times due to the forcing mechanisms. The first is over the northern portion of the area this morning and the second with heating during the afternoon hours from north of BTR southward along the Miss River to New Orleans and areas south of there. There still is not a lot of environmental movement with any of this with the exception of propagating along or with outflows. So, with high rain rates, any of these storms could cause flooding issues. Sat night will show much the same process where most storms weaken overnight but new development along this same weakness that is persistant along the northern tier of counties/parishes by Sun morning. More storms develop with the heating of the day Sunday then decay again overnight Sun night. But this time something begins to change as we move into the first day of the new work week. The weak high that has been over the eastern gulf holding a center pressure of 1015mb begins to get reinforcements with stronger ridging from the Atlantic high ridging into the gulf stacking this high causing a much stronger cap to form along most of the gulf coast Monday. One can easily find this by watching the central pressure of this high over the eastern gulf go from a weak 1015 to 1020mb as we get into the first few days of the new week. This will quickly cut off the spicket for at least Monday and most of the day Tue. An east coast trough begins to build synoptically which means this troughing bends back and orients itself in a NW to SE manner from the Red River Valley into the SE CONUS by late Tue into Tue night. This will give a path/conduit for storms to develop and move SE into at least the northern portion of the area once again with severe storms on the table once again. This should be a diurnal setup and this time they should be moving, so residence time would be much less than it has been lately. We will need to get close enough to this time frame to see where this boundary sets up since it will be the tell of where storms will develop and move.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Tuesday will see little overall change from the weekend with continued hot temperatures and low rain chances as a broad deep layer ridge remains in firm control of the Gulf South. Heat index values will once again climb to between 105 and 110 and only some isolated afternoon convection will develop as temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s. Any convection will be most likely across the northern third of the CWA where the mid-level cap will be the weakest, although still quite strong.

Wednesday and Thursday will see the influence of the ridge begin to decrease as a broad northern stream longwave trough axis digs into the eastern half of the CONUS. This will help to flatten out the ridge in the Gulf and reduce the strength of the mid-level cap over the area. A north-south gradient of rain chances will continue to remain in place, but overall convective coverage will increase back to more typical levels for late June. Rain chances will range from 20 to 30 percent south of New Orleans to 40 to 50 percent north of the I-10/12 corridor each day. The convection will be very diurnal with coverage peaking in the afternoon hours as highs climb into the lower 90s. Lingering mid-level dry air entrainment into a few of the storms could lead to a few damaging wind events associated with wet microbursts both days. The slightly cooler temperatures should also help to push heat index values back to around 105 degrees, or just below heat advisory levels on Wednesday into Friday. [PG/Schlotz]

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

IFR to MVFR cigs north to VFR cigs closer to the coast unless TSRA currently ongoing this morning. Vis will be restricted only in TSRA this morning and these storms will drop vis to LIFR levels briefly. Some SHRA and TSRA will be around the area through much of the day causing tempo areas of IFR cigs and vis. TSRA will continue into the evening hours but should decay around or after midnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A broad area of high pressure will build back over the eastern Gulf waters as we move into the new week. Persistent onshore winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet can be expected through much of next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.