textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1156 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will begin returning Sunday, mainly for areas west of the I-55 corridor. A few storms may be locally strong and capable of locally heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through the middle of next week.

- Monitoring greater coverage in shower/storm chances late week as a front approaches the local area.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Morning cloud cover has broken up into a beautiful, seasonable day across our area. Looking to tonight, conditions will be marginally conducive for patchy fog in the Pearl and Pascagoula River if winds can calm and cloud cover stays more limited. Considering how much patchy fog struggled to develop this morning, prospects of fog development are negligible for Sunday morning.

Despite the southeasterly flow around the southwestern flank of the surface high, low to mid-level RH values are actually taking a hit today as drier air mixes in from the northern Gulf. This will not last long, however, as deeper moisture will begin to move into the area on Sunday. This in accompaniment with the shortwave ridging eroding overhead will enable seabreeze and lakebreeze activity to become more prominent. Northwest areas have the highest chance of afternoon shower and storm activity as the southeast flow directs these boundaries to the northwest in a favorable orientation for enhanced convergence and lift. High instability (>2500 j/kg), strong low and mid-level lapse rates (>7 C/km), and sufficient 0-6km shear (25-35 knots) will provide an environment capable of producing a few strong storms and a severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in NW areas. Downbursts (DCAPE >800 j/kg) and hail (SHIP >1.0) will be the primary threat with any strong/severe storms that can develop near and north of the Baton Rouge area.

In addition to severe weather impacts, these storms will be somewhat slow-moving and storm motion to the northwest being opposite to the shear vector to the southeast could create the potential for backbuilding. As such, locally heavy rainfall leading to street flooding could be a possibility in urban and poor drainage areas around the Baton Rouge metro area.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Southeasterly winds will generally prevail through late next week, bringing deep moisture inland along with summer-like diurnally driven showers and storms. Weak shortwaves within the prevailing southwesterly flow of the Rockies trough will increase chances of storms especially in the northern half of the CWA particularly Wednesday-Friday. High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s during this period, slightly above normal for this time of year. Alterations to the high temperature forecast will be largely dependent on storm coverage on a given day which may vary as guidance hones in on timing of these shortwave disturbances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions areawide with scattered cu deck around 4000ft this afternoon. SCT-BKN CIG deck could intermittently reach MVFR overnight. MCB could have some VIS impacts due to patchy fog around sunrise, but confidence in fog development is very low. Winds will remain out of the southeast through the period, peaking around 8 to 12 knots during daytime. Will likely need introduction of PROB30 lines for TSRA impacts to BTR, HDC, and MCB between 1800 and 0000 UTC in subsequent updates due to afternoon TSRA activity popping up.

MARINE

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

High pressure anchored to the east offshore the mid-Atlantic states will continue to provide onshore SE flow this weekend into next week. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots could raise small craft exercise caution headlines for waters near and south of Terrebonne Bay on Sunday and Monday, when the pressure gradient is at its tightest. Moisture steadily increasing will begin to provide a few scattered shower chances mainly next week, with best chances mainly late-week as a front approaches the northern Gulf coast. Waves/seas will steadily increase early next week given ongoing SE fetch reaching 3-5ft for outer Gulf waters (primarily west of the MS delta) to 2-3ft for nearshore waters, but winds back down some mid/late week reducing wave/seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.