textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 614 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Heavy rainfall continues to be the main weather threat through the week. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing hourly rainfall rates of 1-3" per hour. With mostly saturated soils, high rainfall rates even over short periods could overwhelm drainage systems, leading to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas. Localized flash flooding could also result in some roads becoming impassable, mainly in areas where the heaviest rain falls, or where multiple storms result in longer periods of moderate to heavy rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Most precipitation has dissipated for now with the exception of a narrow band over Pointe Coupee and Iberville Parishes. That area is also weakening. While there is still convection over the Gulf, current movement would track most of it west of our CWA. Taking those trends into account, plan is to allow the Flood Watch to expire on schedule at the top of the hour. Overnight shift can reassess the need for an additional one tomorrow.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A stalled MCS will move through the area during the early morning hours Thursday, enhancing rain chances for the region through midday. The environment is still conducive for flash flooding (abundant moisture, high PWs, decent instability, etc.). So, the rainfall will still be highly efficient, with rates around 1-2 inches per hour. Widespread flash flooding concerns are not expected. Ponding of low-lying roads is expected with some water over roadways possible, especially given the saturated antecedent conditions. Severe weather is not expected, but gusty winds (40- 60mph) could be possible. MSW

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Once this system pushes into the Gulf by Thursday afternoon, we will be a little drier for the weekend and early next week and closer to normal weather-wise as zonal flow and eventually ridging dominate the pattern. As a result, daily scattered showers and storms will be expected Friday through Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and evening peak daytime heating hours. PoPs are around 30-50% each day. These storms will have the risk of localized flash flooding, but widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Severe weather is also not expected with any storm development, but gusty winds (40- 60mph) could be possible. MSW

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

All terminals currently VFR. Most precipitation across the area has dissipated, and the only mention in the first few hours of the forecast is a PROB30 at KBTR, and that may be overstating the threat even there. Do expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop at most terminals beyond 08z, with at least some potential of redevelopment of precipitation prior to sunrise. There will be some potential for redevelopment of convection during the daytime hours at all terminals, especially in the morning hours. Some indications of a weak dry slot across western terminals by afternoon, and will gradually end precipitation prior to sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

High pressure anchored over the western Atlantic will maintain light to moderate onshore flow across the local coastal waters. Daily showers and storms will be capable of producing locally hazardous winds and seas, with a few cells each day capable of producing winds in excess of 34 kts over the next few days.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.