textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- A few storms will be possible again this afternoon with the best chances in southern and southeastern Mississippi.

- Strong heat will be back with heat index readings up to 108F starting Sunday into the new workweek with heat advisories becoming increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.

- Ongoing minor river flooding continues to impact parts of the Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Likely one more round of convection going into this afternoon with the best convective signal residing east of I55, including most of Mississippi and the Florida Parishes. Today the DCAPE values are quite a bit lower, almost by half when compared to yesterday, which means gusty winds will be a bit more of an exception rather than the rule, however, still not impossible in the wider and stronger updrafts. Convection should begin to decrease around sunset this evening and probably refocus over the MS Sound later tonight. Once again, with landbreeze/surface convergent boundary any cells later tonight locked into those boundaries would probably produce waterspouts.

On Friday The weak H5 ridge over Texas begins to move over our region and will likely get a bit stronger was it does. Again, this will put the brakes on any convective development with the increasing subsidence a loft. This will also allow our temperatures to begin to soar well into the 90s. Usually in events such as these we will begin to see some afternoon mixing help bring down dry air. However, as green as we are after the heavy rainfall, this will be a challenge with evapotranspiration taking place helping maintain surface moisture. Why is this important? toward the end of the weekend heat index values will approach 105F+ and we will start watching for the need for heat headlines. Otherwise, with the ridge building into a 595dam heat bubble over the lower MS Valley, expect most of any type of rainfall to be well east and north over the Tennessee Valley south and eastward toward the Florida Peninsula again keeping our region dry. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Going into the long range, continued hot with possible heat headlines needed as daytime temperatures and humidity values remain rather high impacting heat index values with some locations approaching 110F during the afternoon hours. Again, given the soil moisture and green vegetation mixing will likely not help, so RH values will likely remain on the higher side. The H5 ridge will begin to spread northward away from the CWA going into midweek and positioning over the Ohio River Valley. Although still hot, there will be a few inverted shortwaves round the southern periphery of this ridge, which will help generate shower and thunderstorm activity during peak heating likely starting on Tuesday, but really showing up on Wednesday with less H5 ridge influence (subsidence) and more tropical moisture moving back into the region. For now, keeping middle of the road POPs, but as confidence increases on timing of each impulse, we expect overall chances to increase, again during the afternoon and evening. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A much drier area of high pressure will continue to build over the area through tonight and into tomorrow. This will result in prevailing VFR conditions at all of the terminals through the entire forecast period. Although there are some fog probabilities at MCB around daybreak, the risk is too minimal to include in the forecast. PG

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Surface high will move east bringing onshore flow back to the coastal waters this evening, which will remain through the weekend. More thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, especially over the coastal MS waters, causing strong erratic winds in and near these storms as they move across the open waters. Conditions improve over the weekend as winds weaken to light and variable with high pressure moving over the north central gulf. Winds will be higher in and near any storms that develop. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.