textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will begin returning Sunday, mainly for areas west of the I-59 corridor. A few storms may be locally strong.

- Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through the middle of next week.

- Monitoring greater coverage in shower/storm chances late week as a front approaches the local area.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Starting off with tonight, GOES-16 Infrared satellite imagery continues to illustrate mid to upper-level cloud cover advecting from the west in response to a subtle embedded shortwave/weakness aloft and attendant weak PVA. This will likely provide mostly cloudy skies areawide Saturday morning but largely quiet overall. Few key items to identify, interestingly looking at GOES-16 derived PW and 03Z RAP trends identify a slug of drier air in the central/northern Gulf, rotating northwest around the periphery of surface high pressure anchored off the south mid-atlantic coastline. HRRR proximity soundings for today illustrates this dry layer to be below the H5-H3 moist layer associated with the aforementioned trough, providing a very strong, low-level subsidence inversion. This could help provide a bit stronger mixing today, making it feel a tad drier today compared to yesterday with dewpoints potentially mixing down into the low/mid 60's and some upper 50's. Highs averaging around to a couple of degrees "cooler" than yesterday falls in line with NBM verification/ensemble trends with little adjustment needed for today. Looks like some of these upper-level clouds will be able to clear out going into the later afternoon/evening, but likely will be replaced/followed by a low-level Cu field as we warm up and provide a small slither of positive buoyancy between the LCL and bottom of the strong inversion aloft. Overall, not a bad day!

Calm tonight, then going into Sunday, we start to really see pooling of very deep Gulf moisture over the NW Gulf, funneling north given increasing low-level/850mb flow accelerating across the central US. The state of the troposphere definitely takes on a bit of a transformation given this influx of deep, rich Gulf air in place by 1) Lifting/shrinking the inversion that will settle in today up to H7-H6 and 2) Revealing a distinct moist-adiabatic profile. Regardless, we'll see good coverage of low-level Cu during the day, with temperatures warming into the mid 80's. HRRR sfc wind fields reveal curved/confluent onshore SE flow from W/E which almost always nails the best confluence to be a skewed lake/seabreeze from Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas, to the northwest to near BTR and SW MS, basically following along/near the MS river where this will likely be a zone of maximized lift needed to get scattered showers/storms going. H5 temperatures around -11C and hail growth CAPE nearing 900J/kg will support a few stronger storms where updrafts are forced by this skewed seabreeze boundary and any other storm outflow boundary interactions to produce a localized gusty wind/hail threat in this region. So overall, might need to monitor for a few strong storms along/west of I-55 mainly across the Atchafalaya Basin to SW MS Sunday afternoon/evening, with all activity coming to an end shortly around/after sunset as we lose the supportive diurnal surface heating. KLG

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

South to southeasterly winds will generally prevail through mid next week, bringing plenty of moisture inland along with summer-like diurnally driven showers and storms. Some weak disturbances passing through might edge the chances of storms upward especially in the northern half of the CWA. High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s during this period with the only limited chances of relief if a place gets a bunch of rain. BL

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Expect primarily VFR conditions for all area terminals through the TAF cycle. Will monitor for some patchy FG possible across MCB early this morning, but impacts appear limited at this time. Otherwise, primarily FEW/BKN150-200 in the morning/mid afternoon hours, with SE winds bearing 150-170 around 6-10kts in the afternoon hours, becoming calm after sunset. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

High pressure anchored to the east offshore the mid-Atlantic states will continue to provide onshore SE flow this weekend into next week. Moisture steadily increasing will begin to provide a few scattered shower chances mainly next week, with best chances mainly late-week as a front approaches the northern Gulf coast. Waves/seas do steadily increase early next week given ongoing SE fetch reaching 3-5ft for outer Gulf waters (primarily west of the MS delta) to 2- 3ft for nearshore waters, but winds back down some mid/late week reducing wave/seas. KLG

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.