textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- A mostly dry pattern is expected to start the week. Temperatures will also increase well into the 90s and near 100 with feels like temperatures around 110 this afternoon then ranging from 110 to 115 degrees during the afternoon Tuesday. Heat headlines for Wednesday and Thursday will be contingent on the path of TD2.

- Tropical Depression 2 is forecast to move westward toward our general area through midweek. Impacts are still low confidence, but an increase in rainfall with breezy conditions along with potential coastal flooding are becoming more and more possible with time.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Heat will still be the main issue at least through Tuesday. We will need to see how the fcast shakes out for Wed and Thu to see if there will be a need for heat products. One of these will win out since there is no way to have cloudy and/or rainy, windy conditions and heat advisories/warnings. Basically, we will be taking this on a day to day basis. Current model guidance shows heat index numbers peaking Tue then backing off by 3 to 5 degrees mainly over the eastern portion of the area. Thu, these numbers back off by a max of 10 degrees. What this tells us is there is at least cloud cover enough to lower heat index values for Wed and Thu. If this system takes the current fcasted track, it would put the center over the Miss River mouth at 7pm Wed. At least logically thinking, this would set the stage for plenty of cloud cover Wed and therefore heat index values should not be where they are fcasted by the NBM for Wed or Thu. We have lowered heat index values to be more in line with the current fcasted path of TD2 and rainfall projections. Precip numbers are the next in line to be looked at, but max percentages of 50-60% will suffice for now as the system moves west.

The short wave moving through the long wave trough this morning is doing so very far north than what previous model runs were showing. The current path is through Ohio then to the eastern seaboard by late Tue. This will have a weak northward pull on the system then the H5 high begins to build back over keeping the system near the coast with some guidance even shoving it farther offshore. With any weak system like this, guidance will be in somewhat of a dissagreement with path, speed and especially strength. We will need to take this system's fcast a day at a time as well.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

By Thursday evening, TD2/Bertha is expected to have moved into Mexico or deep South Texas, with upper ridging to it's north. Upper troughs will be over the northeast and northwest US. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary should be somewhere around Interstate 20.

The upper ridge doesn't look to move much through the weekend. The only real question is whether shortwaves moving toward the base of the trough to our east will be close enough to the local area to push the frontal boundary into the area. We're unlikely to see a lot of drying, with precipitable water values remaining above the 75th percentile (2 inches) across most of the area through Sunday. Current NBM PoP numbers would seem to favor a somewhat drier solution, closer to the GFS. Temperatures, however, would apear to just be a compromise between the GFS and ECMWF, as there was a 5-10F difference on high temperatures at quite a few sites for Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Terminals along and east of the I55 corridor will have high enough chances of TSRA today but will be late in the day. PROB30 group will be used to time this for today. Otherwise, VFR through this taf cycle at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Tropical Depression 2 will meander over the northeast gulf for the next day or so. Eventually, the storm will begin to move westward near or over the northern and north central gulf coast and is forecast to increase in intensity to a tropical storm. As the system moves over our local waters, expect winds and seas to increase with tropical storm conditions possible for most if not all the local waters. The system will move east of the region later Thursday and conditions should improve going into the upcoming weekend.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.