textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Low humidity values will continue through Tuesday, however, winds will relax to light and variable. Moisture return begins late Tues as onshore flow develops.

- A light freeze expected across much of the local area except those south of Lake Pontchartrain. A Freeze Warning has been issued due to recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their dormancy.

- Above normal temps expected Wednesday onward through the upcoming weekend. We will also see our next rain chances Thursday and Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 534 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Red Flag Warning will expire at the top of the hour. Winds have subsided enough that another is not anticipated tomorrow. However, conditions remain rather dry and humidities will still be rather low tomorrow.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

The US is currently bisected by trough axis over the eastern half an ridge over the west. Both are extremely amplified with the trough reaching from Canada to Cuba and the ridge from Mexico to Canada. The CWA is right on the southwestern side of the trough which continues to allow strong cold air advection. Going through the evening and overnight hours, post frontal surface ridge slides into the region, becoming oriented just northeast of the CWA around daybreak Tuesday. That's a prime position relative to the local area for cold air drainage. Forecast lows reflect that with mins falling into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Recent warmth sparked a plethora of plant budding, thus have issued Freeze Warning for most of the forecast area to account for those conditions and potential impacts. Otherwise, benign weather expected.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Temps will swing from below to well above normal midweek and remain there throughout the forecast period. Global models show a shortwave trough tracking through the mid to lower Mississippi River Valley on Thursday. As it does so, Gulf moisture will get drawn north into the coastal states. Although there'll be a surface boundary associated with this upper trough, would expect it to be relatively weak based on the lack of amplitude of the trough. Nevertheless, increased bouyancy from the fall pressures and lift from the approaching boundary should at least support scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms across the local area. Once that feature moves through, should be set for a quiet weather pattern this weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds should decouple this evening, then become southerly around midday Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Hazardous conditions will continue through the rest of today. Expect winds to gradually subside this evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. Will transition hazard products from a Small Craft Advisory through the afternoon to Exercise Caution headline this evening and overnight. A surface high pressure looks to finally filter into the area Monday evening and into Tuesday, so expect winds to shut down at that time and return to benign marine conditions for Tuesday. Winds and seas are likely to increase again Wednesday into Thursday as another frontal system approaches.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>059-065-071-076-079>086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.