textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1129 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

- Heavy rainfall continues to be the main weather threat through the week. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing hourly rainfall rates of 1-3" per hour. With mostly saturated soils, high rainfall rates even over short periods could overwhelm drainage systems, leading to ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas. Localized flash flooding could also result in some roads becoming impassable, mainly in areas where the heaviest rain falls, or where multiple storms result in longer periods of moderate to heavy rain.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for our entire area through this evening.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A stalled MCS will move through the area during the early morning hours Thursday, enhancing rain chances for the region through midday. The environment is still conducive for flash flooding (abundant moisture, high PWs, decent instability, etc.). So, the rainfall will still be highly efficient, with rates around 1-2 inches per hour. Widespread flash flooding concerns are not expected. Ponding of low-lying roads is expected with some water over roadways possible, especially given the saturated antecedent conditions. Severe weather is not expected, but gusty winds (40- 60mph) could be possible. MSW

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Once this system pushes into the Gulf by Thursday afternoon, we will be a little drier for the weekend and early next week and closer to normal weather-wise as zonal flow and eventually ridging dominate the pattern. As a result, daily scattered showers and storms will be expected Friday through Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and evening peak daytime heating hours. PoPs are around 30-50% each day. These storms will have the risk of localized flash flooding, but widespread flooding concerns are not expected. Severe weather is also not expected with any storm development, but gusty winds (40- 60mph) could be possible. MSW

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. PROB30 and TEMPO groups are in effect for showers and storms this afternoon and evening and again tomorrow morning. Conditions should remain MVFR for these groups. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be possible throughout the forecast period. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

High pressure anchored over the western Atlantic will maintain light to moderate onshore flow across the local coastal waters. Daily showers and storms will be capable of producing locally hazardous winds and seas, with a few cells each day capable of producing winds in excess of 34 kts over the next few days.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.