textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- The potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will increase Sunday and peak Monday as a slow-moving frontal boundary approaches from the north. Additional heavy rainfall remains possible Tuesday.

- A drier pattern is expected late next week into next weekend. The primary concern will then shift toward increasing heat, with heat indices potentially approaching advisory criteria.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

A wet pattern is taking shape across the region to start the new week. A surface cold front currently just north of the midsouth region is dropping toward the south. This will be a key component in kick starting the wetter period. Additionally, an upper level trough/weakness is lingering over the southeast as well. The best potential for rainfall will likely come on Monday, but anytime through Wednesday will see at least some rain chances across the CWFA. As PWATS remain around 2.0" efficient rainfall rates will likely contribute to localized flooding issues. WPC still has a slight ERO for Monday. Overall QPF through the short term is roughly around 1 to 2 inches, but as we saw yesterday in both New Orleans and Baton Rouge, higher amounts are possible with heavier and slower moving cells. As for severe weather potential there remains a nonzero strong gusty wind threat in the stronger/wider updrafts.

As for temperatures, similar to days past did NOT consider a heat advisory for today since again convection is expected to start early (similar to the last couple of days) and coverage will be more numerous. Also, due to more showers/t'storms, daily maximum temps will also be held down, not just for today but also on Monday as well. In fact, most of the region will only warm into the middle and upper 80s to start the new workweek, which is a few degrees below average for July. As convection coverage decreases by Wednesday, temperatures will soar once again right back into the lower 90s...or temps that will be much closer to climo for the Dog Days of Summer. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The mid-level weakness will continue to move away from the local area Wednesday night with the inverted trough axis over Texas. Upper ridging will actually be building in from the north as this occurs on Thursday. By the time the weekend arrives, the upper pattern will be characterized by a ridge over the Rockies and a trough along the East Coast. The only real question at this point is whether the southeast extent of the ridge protects the area from easterly waves over the weekend next weekend. At this point, the ECMWF solutions indicate any waves will be far enough south to not impact the northern Gulf Coast.

The upper pattern should limit convection significantly late in the week, with not much more than isolated afternoon convection. Could be multiple days with no convection over land, although at present, Thursday is the only one with most of the area dry. Much of the area is likely to see highs in the middle 90s for Thursday into (and possibly through) the weekend. With higher surface moisture remaining in place that keeps dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, heat index values will also rise. At this time, confidence is greater in a warming trend than in temperatures or heat indices reaching any specific value. The strength and placement of the ridge will determine how much convection is suppressed and how quickly heat stress increases. A stronger ridge centered closer to the Lower Mississippi Valley would support hotter conditions, while a ridge remaining farther west would permit somewhat greater afternoon storm coverage and limit the heat moreso. Regardless, may be looking at heat advisories for at least local urban areas Friday thru weekend. (RW)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR through the morning hours will give way to better convection coverage/chances today with reduced VIS/CIGs in heavier showers and storms. Conditions will improve around or just after sunset tonight with once again VFR conditions from that point until the end of the TAF cycle. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The Bermuda ridge that extends into the Gulf will generally support light to occasionally moderate onshore flow this weekend. An upper trough moving into the southeastern US will bring a weak frontal boundary to the coastal waters before stalling. In doing so, winds will weaken as the pressure field relaxes. That will allow winds and seas that are relatively benign. The primary marine hazards will come from thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage generally during the overnight and morning hours over the open Gulf waters. Storms will be capable of frequent lightning, very heavy rain, locally higher waves and sudden wind gusts. Waterspouts will also remain possible, particularly near developing early-morning convection. Rain chances should increase further going into the new workweek as the upper trough and weak surface boundary approach the coastal waters. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.