textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- The next substantial chance of rain will be this afternoon and evening as a cold front makes it through the area. Rain totals should remain fairly low most places and likely will not result in much, if any, drought relief.

- Behind the front, winds will be gusty (20-25mph), especially for the southshore and river parishes. A Wind Advisory is in effect Sunday morning through afternoon hours for areas south of I-10. Low relative humidities combined with the gusty winds will produce critical fire conditions across our area Sunday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Sunday.

- A significant cool down is forecast Sunday into the beginning of the next work week. The coldest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions across areas north of the I-10/12 corridor mainly Tuesday morning. Freeze warning could be needed given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their cool season dormancy.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Tonight through Tuesday, there are several weather concerns to be aware of. The first is the strong to severe scattered storms that are moving through this afternoon and evening. These storms could be strong (40-50mph), especially east of I-55. But we are not concerned about severe weather. Hail will also be a concern as these storms pulse up and down with peak daytime heating late afternoon and evening. The rainfall totals are generally expected to be less than 1 inch total for the event and flooding concerns are not expected.

As the system moves through tonight, cold and dry air will be advected into the area by northerly winds quickly on the backside of the low. Gradient winds will be quite gusty, around 20-25mph late tonight through Sunday afternoon, especially south of I-10. A Wind Advisory is in effect late tonight through Sunday late afternoon. Be sure to secure any loose objects and be cognizant if driving any high-profile vehicles.

In addition to the gusty winds Sunday, relative humidities will drop quite rapidly Sunday morning. Low relative humidities are forecast to be around 20-25% across the entire area Sunday. These low humidities combined with the higher winds will create dangerous fire weather conditions for Sunday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday, which has been coordinated with the LA and MS Forestry Service, respectively. Be mindful of where you dispose of cigarette and don't park on dry grass.

Temperatures will drop as cold northerly air advects further into the area. Lows on Monday morning are approaching or below freezing for areas along and north of I-10/12. Lows on Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning of the week with temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s, mainly for areas along and north of I-10/12. Conditions could be approaching freezing on Tuesday for the River Parishes as well, which we will look into in further detail in subsequent forecast packages. It is possible a freeze watch/warning may be needed for Monday or Tuesday, as a result, especially given the recent warm spell which has resulted in some greening of plants.

Overall, strong storms moving through the area tonight, especially east of I-55, with the main threats being gusty subsevere winds, hail, and lightning. Strong gradient winds on the backside of the frontal system late tonight through Sunday afternoon. Dangerous fire weather concerns for Sunday into Sunday afternoon. And then once these hazards improve, we will drop temperatures fairly quickly for Monday morning and Tuesday morning with freezing conditions expected along and north of I-10/12. MSW

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

After Tuesday, we start to see a warming trend next week with near-normal temperatures returning to the area. Little to no rainfall is expected next week through at least Thursday. Thursday into Friday, another frontal system will be approaching and moving through the area, enhancing rain chances. Currently, model trends are showing this system as being fairly weak overall. Some strong winds and lightning could be expected, but it is not looking to be a severe weather threat at this time. But that could change as we get closer to the middle of the week, and we will keep monitoring. MSW

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports due to low ceilings. Some afternoon and evening scattered storms will move through the area, which will temporarily cause MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities at most area airports and TEMPO groups are in effect. Gusty winds (25-30mph) will be expected throughout the forecast period, especially Sunday. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will also be expected throughout the forecast period. Conditions should improve to VFR by early Sunday morning. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A strong cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in again behind it. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will cause winds to strengthen and turn offshore again Saturday evening. Once hazardous conditions set in Saturday evening, Gale conditions are expected. A Gale Warning is in effect for Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Sunday for LAZ056>060-064>070-077-078-087>090.

GM...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.

GM...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.