textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 433 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- The potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will continue through today as a frontal boundary remains stalled over the area.

- A drier pattern is expected during the latter half of this week. The primary concern will then shift toward increasing heat, with heat indices potentially approaching advisory criteria Friday onward.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

It is quite easy to pick out with satellite and radar presentations the stacked low over central Alabama this morning. This low will continue westward into the Arklamiss area later today, so we will unfortunately stay in a very unsettled environment for today until the next thing changes things. The next thing that will happen is the H3 cyclone will continue moving even farther west well into TX than its currently connected H85 low. This will occur by late today causing these two to disconnect eventually causing a meso- high between the two. This will also cause sh/ts to become more concentrated around these two features while a "void" occurs between them associated with the meso-high. This is easily depicted in QPF fields of all models as soon as tonight and definitely as we move into Wed. The relative void area of precip will run down the axis of this meso- high from Amarillo to Dallas to New Orleans. This does not mean there will be no more storms develop within and adjacent to this axis, it just means there will be far more storms develop well away from this axis. This same scenario carries into Thu as well. There is a ThetaE axis very close to the gulf coast by late Thu into Fri which could help bring more storms along this axis to the coastal regions of the area. But there are dissagreements on where this axis will lay by Fri.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is on the lower side. Models have been bouncing around the area being between two ridges this weekend to a ridge over the area to possibly a TUTT moving into and across the Gulf to a deep L/W trough developing over the eastern CONUS late in the forecast. Medium range guidance has the biggest difference in the mid lvls this weekend with how the ridge builds down and how much it impacts the area. However, they start to come into better agreement during the work week advertising that east coast trough and western CONUS ridge which they have been advertising now for days. Given that it is Summer so there is a lack of any significant synoptic forcing and with the models just all over the place through the weekend confidence is low so we will stick with the NBM for the long range forecast.

The ridge that is currently sitting over MN/WI will begin to work southeast towards the Appalachians and eventually into the western Atlantic and over the sern CONUS. While the mid lvl low over our area starts to slide west. The ridge will likely have its greatest influence over the area Thursday and Friday but heading into the weekend how does the mid lvls evolve. Will the ridge quickly build back west over the area as the eventual L/W starts to develop along the east coast or does that L/W trough begin to develop more west along the Appalachians and into the north-central Gulf. A slightly farther west development will allow for better rain chances this weekend while a slower developing and more to the east placement along the coast causes the ridge to build back west over the area and thus a drier and hot weekend. Ensembles suggest a slightly slower developing L/W trough and not as much of a weakness over the area this weekend but not a dominating ridge thus isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms still look possible but with the overall lack of coverage we will be quite warm. The low lvl temps suggest highs in the mid 90s and this could lead to heat index values in the 105-110 range in some of the usual spots like around the tidal lakes and between the MS and Atchafalaya rivers. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Widespread SHRA and TSRA this morning will make for most terminals having IFR to MVFR conditions while sh/ts are ongoing. These will be handled with prevailing and PROB30 groups. VFR should be the general condition outside sh/ts today. Tonight will actually show several terminals with SKC with all in VFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1116 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Outside outflow boundaries from storms, a predominant southerly wind around 10 knots will remain through Wednesday. Wind direction will shift to westerly and eventually northwest Thursday through the end of the week. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet over the open Gulf waters and 2 feet or less across the protected waters. Thunderstorms remain the primary short-duration hazard. Storms may produce frequent lightning, waterspouts, and sudden wind shifts and strong gusts with locally higher seas. Thunderstorm coverage should be greatest through today before showing a decreasing trend through the remainder of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.