textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Areas of fog, potentially dense at times, will be possible again Thursday morning.

- A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing much cooler and drier conditions of the weekend. Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions, with gale conditions possible.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Saturday as gusty northeasterly winds combine with min RH values in the upper 20s and low 30s across the area.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The main focus in the short term will be the unseasonably warm and dry conditions through Friday before a fairly strong cold front brings our first real taste of fall this weekend. In the meantime, upper-level ridging will continue to influence the area and keep most of the precipitation away.

Starting with today, the fog that developed overnight has essentially all lifted this afternoon as daytime heating broke down the shallow inversion at the surface. With plenty of sunshine and the continued influence of the ridge, temperatures will once again climb into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of the area. One thing to note is the rather dry air that had been sitting atop the shallow moist layer this morning. As the boundary-layer mixing get going this afternoon, some of that drier air should be able to mix down to the surface and lower dew points. Therefore, dew points were bumped down slightly from the NBM this afternoon to account for the expected mixing. This will bring min RH values into the 30s across much of the area, with some locations potentially getting lower. Thankfully, winds will remain light enough to limit the overall fire weather concerns despite the dry conditions.

Tonight into Thursday morning, fog becomes another concern as the shallow low-level moisture remains in place. The main question will be how efficiently the boundary layer can cool and whether winds remain light enough for fog to be dense. There will be a very dry layer above the inversion, so even a slight increase in mixing could prevent widespread dense fog from developing. However, given the moisture near the surface and the expected overnight cooling, at least some areas of fog seem likely again, with locally dense fog possible. The greatest visibility restrictions should be around sunrise before improving through the morning.

Thursday will be very similar to today as the ridge remains in control. Expect another day of mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s across the area. The immediate coastal areas should remain slightly cooler due to the marine influence. Rain chances will remain near zero for most of the area thanks to the continued subsidence and lack of sufficient moisture and forcing.

Things start to change on Friday as a trough progressing across the central CONUS begins breaking down the ridge overhead and pushes a cold front toward the area. The main forecasting challenge will be the exact timing of the front. If it manages to move through earlier on Friday, particularly across southwest MS and the northern Florida Parishes, afternoon temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than currently forecast. However, if the front holds off until later in the day, we could squeeze out one more rather warm afternoon with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. For now, confidence is higher in the overall frontal passage than the exact timing across the CWA. Precipitation chances remain quite limited with this front as sufficient deep-layer moisture and forcing look to remain displaced from much of the inland area. There could be some showers closer to the coast and offshore, but widespread rainfall is not expected.

The cold front should make its way through the area late Friday and Friday night, bringing a much drier and cooler airmass into the region. Looking at the short-range guidance, they generally agree in an increase in northerly flow across the northern Gulf behind the front, although there is some differences in the placement and magnitude of the strongest winds. The tightening pressure gradient between the departing front and building surface high will support gusty winds, especially areas south of Lake Pontchartrain and over the marine areas. Because of this, winds were bumped up slightly from the NBM behind the front to better account expected gradient and post-frontal mixing. Small craft Advisories will likely be needed, and some of the offshore waters could approach gale conditions.

By Saturday, the cooler and drier air will have taken over the entire area. Highs should only reach the low to mid 70s for most locations, which will be roughly 10-15 degrees cooler than what we have been experiencing. Another thing to note is how much the dew points should drop behind this front. The strong northerly flow will advect a much drier continental airmass into the area, and daytime mixing should help bring some of that dry air to the surface. Therefore, dew points were lowered from NBM again on Saturday, especially along and north of I-10/12, to account for the expected dry-air advection and mixing. This brings min RH values down to the upper 20s and lower 30s for portions of southwest MS and the Florida Parishes. Unlike today, however, winds will also be elevated behind the front, so fire weather concerns will need to be monitored closely, especially where the lowest RH values overlap with the stronger winds. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny and much more comfortable Saturday across the area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The previously mentioned cold front will have cleared the area by Saturday night, leaving a much cooler and drier airmass in place. Surface high pressure will continue building towards the region while ridging aloft keeps conditions dry and stable through Sunday.

The main forecast challenge Saturday night into Sunday morning will be how efficiently temperatures can cool behind the front. With the much drier airmass in place and mostly clear skies expected, radiational cooling should become fairly efficient, particularly across the interior areas and the typical drainage areas. Although winds will be somewhat elevated closer to the coast and lakes, they should begin relaxing farther inland as the surface high builds closer to the area. Therefore, minimum temperatures were bumped down slightly from the NBM Sunday morning to account for the expected cooling. The coolest temperatures should be across southwest MS, the northern Florida Parishes, and the Pearl River drainage areas, while locations south of the lake and along the immediate coast due to the marine influence and slightly stronger winds. The biggest question will be how quickly the pressure gradient relaxes overnight, as any persistent mixing could keep temperatures from falling quite as much.

Sunday should be a fairly pleasant day as the drier airmass and ample sunshine allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 70s and low 80s. With the high pressure still influencing the area, expect little to no precipitation for most inland locations. As we head into Sunday night, the surface high begins shifting further east, allowing more southeasterly flow to return and gradually increasing low-level moisture. This should also bring minimum temperatures back up closer to normal.

As we get into Monday and Tuesday, model guidance starts to diverge on how the upper-level pattern evolves. Some guidance favors a more amplified ridge remaining over the southeastern CONUS, which would keep the area predominantly dry while temperatures gradually warm back above normal. On the other hand, some guidance is more progressive with the ridge and brings a shortwave trough through the lower MS Valley. This would provide better forcing and allow some precipitation chances to return,mainly along and south of I-10 where the better moisture should reside.

With these differences in the guidance, decided to stay with the NBM for the remainder of the long term period. This keeps temperatures gradually warming into the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday, with low-end rain chances returning to portions of the area. Confidence is lower than average for early next week given the differences in the upper-level pattern, so we'll have to see which solution the guidance trends towards in the coming days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through this evening with mostly clear skies and light winds. The main concern will be another round of fog overnight into Thursday morning as winds become light to calm and the surface cools. LIFR conditions are expected across most terminals generally developing between 09-12z, with some terminals dropping to 1/4SM and ceilings around 100 feet. The biggest question will be how widespread the dense fog becomes given the very dry air just above the inversion. Any fog should dissipate between 13-15z as daytime heating allows the boundary layer to mix out, with VFR conditions returning thereafter.

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

High pressure will keep winds relatively calm through Thursday. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapid building seas. Small craft Advisory conditions are likely through the weekend, with gale conditions possible across portions of the offshore waters on late Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday but remain elevated into early next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ529-531-532-534.

MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ531-532-534.