textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

- The warm up we've talked about is here. Look for daytime highs in the 70's.

- Christmas Day is five days out, giving us better confidence in the forecast. It is still looking warm and dry with a reasonable forecast of high temps in the mid to upper 70s and a stray 80 thrown in still isn't out of the question. Again, if Santa is checking our forecast, I'm still advising you wear a Hawaiian shirt and flip flops for your Christmas Eve visit to our area; and don't expect any gumbo, it sure isn't gumbo weather! ;)

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Tonight through Tuesday morning, high pressure will build over the area. Southerly onshore flow will help to advect warm air and humid air into the region. Temperatures will be quite warm with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s for the next few days. Looking at the models, conditions will be dry overall in the short term forecast. Overall, a mild and dry weather pattern ahead.

Dense fog will be a concern overnight tonight with medium to high (30-50%) chances of dense fog development. Given the fog conditions overperformed this morning and looking at the forecast conditions, it is increasingly likely we will see widespread dense fog across the area, especially over water (i.e. rivers, ponds, marsh, etc.). A dense fog advisory has been issued for our entire area for tonight into tomorrow morning. Plan extra time on your commute and travel. MSW

MSW

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Tuesday through the end of the week, similar conditions persist. High pressure continues to be in place for the week, enhancing warm air advection and humidities across the area. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 70s and approaching 80 degrees for Christmas Day. The long term forecast appears to be dry, looking at the models. So, dry and warm for the long term forecast, including Christmas. So, you may need to be prepared to be wearing shorts and tshirts by the end of the week for any celebrations. MSW

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions prevail at all area airports due to low ceilings. TEMPO groups with MVFR conditions are in place at most area airports for this afternoon and early evening due to scattered light to numerous showers moving through the area. Conditions will drop to LIFR and IFR at all area airports around daybreak for a few hours due to dense fog conditions. These conditions should improve by mid morning tomorrow. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

As we move out of the weekend a strong dome of high pressure dominates and we see easterly winds at 5-10 kt generally through the forecast period. Dense fog conditions will be a concern Monday monring across the area, especially for the protected lake and sounds and the open LA/MS coast. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for visibilities less than 1 SM for these locations. On Monday afternoon though, we have a period of higher winds over our eastern offshore waters in the 10-15 kt range and associated wave heights at 3-4 ft in the offshore waters. MSW

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 59 71 54 74 / 50 40 0 0 BTR 62 75 56 77 / 40 40 0 0 ASD 59 71 53 74 / 50 10 0 0 MSY 63 74 58 74 / 50 20 0 0 GPT 60 69 56 72 / 40 10 0 0 PQL 56 70 51 74 / 30 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Monday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Monday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555.