textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1257 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Severe weather increasingly likely Saturday evening into Sunday mid-day. Main threats will be damaging winds (60+mph) and lightning. An embedded tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Main timing for the system will be very late Saturday night through mid-day Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1257 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Tonight through Saturday morning, high pressure continues to dominate the upper level pattern. Conditions will be dry overall for the short term forecast and warmer than normal. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s Friday. Areas of dense fog will be possible again in the morning, but probabilities are quite low compared to the beginning of the week. Visibilities are not expected to drop below 1-2SM at worst over land, so we held off on a dense fog advisory. Overall, expect mild temperatures and dry weather for the rest of the workweek. MSW

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1257 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Saturday into Sunday, a frontal system will be moving through the area. There are still some uncertainties in the model trends with the timing and severity of this system. But generally, ahead of the front, light showers will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours on Saturday. There is no risk of severe weather with these showers.

The main line of storms will move through the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Looking at the models, severe weather will be a concern with this system. The shear and helicity both look favorable overall with 50+kts of shear. The directional shear is more unidirectional, which indicates a more QLCS/squall line mode of development. The biggest limiting factor for this system will be the instability. So, in summary, this will be a high shear-low cape setup. As a result, damaging winds (60+mph) and lightning will be the primary concerns with this system. An embedded brief, spinup tornado will be possible as the line moves through the area, but this is very uncertain and conditional on the instability available during the event, which we should have a better idea as we get closer to Saturday.

In terms of the timing, the trend has been slower today than previous runs, which presents several challenges and concerns, especially given the added vulnerabilities due to Mardi Gras. The general model consensus has the system approaching the area after midnight on Saturday night and pushing through the area completely by late morning on Sunday morning. Given the vulnerabilities and sensitivities this weekend with various outdoor events and Mardi Gras, we have been and will be monitoring this timing very closely. Everyone is very concerned about Saturday night, and we do want people to pay attention Saturday night. But we want to make sure people are not losing track of Sunday either, especially given the slower trends in the models in recent runs. Consequently, it is possible that the line will be moving through key populated areas in the morning hours on Sunday. For example, a majority of the models now depict the timing of the line for New Orleans to be after 6am Sunday morning. This would be quite a bit different than we were originally thinking yesterday. Similarly, for the Mississippi Coast, the line in recent runs will be moving through the coastal MS counties between 6a-noon timeframe. If this trend continues, then the line could be even slower than current thinking, even. It is something to monitor closely as we start to see the CAMs and short range models start to come in tomorrow and as we get closer to Saturday night. Make sure to keep checking back in frequently for changes as there are still quite a few inconsistencies, especially with timing.

One other important hazard for Sunday that we wanted to note is regarding the gradient winds on the backside of the frontal system. Generally, sustained winds will be in the 20-25mph range with gusts up to 30-35mph. These forecast winds were increased off the NBM to account for the low wind biases in the model for this system, especially for the southshore. Winds should start to ease by 4pm Sunday. Wind advisories may be necessary if this forecast holds, especially given the added concerns for the public due to outdoor events and Mardi Gras.

Looking past Sunday, conditions will be dry and mild overall with no significant weather concerns Monday through Thursday at this time. MSW

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports. IFR and LIFR conditions are expected at all area airports for several hours around daybreak tomorrow morning. These conditions will start to improve by midmorning. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1257 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Onshore flow will likely be in place through the remainder of the week with high pressure centered generally east of the region. The threat of fog development will continue into this upcoming weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions or even potentially gales will be possible Saturday into Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks from west to east across the Gulf Coast States.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.