textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 731 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Conditions will remain favorable for the spread of fires through the remainder of this afternoon due to low humidity and strong winds. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of southern MS and portions of southeast LA.

- Windy conditions will also remain a while longer behind the front but should ease enough to allow wind advisories to drop by early afternoon today with Gale Warnings to follow by late this evening. Winds will remain breezy, especially over water areas keeping Small Craft Advisories valid into the new work week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

High pressure will begin to settle into the area tonight and will then remain in place through the start of the work week. As the high settles in, the pressure gradient will relax, allowing winds to ease late this afternoon and into the overnight hours - the exceptions being where stronger winds over Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas will continue to bleed into immediate shoreline areas.

The forecast is fairly straight forward for the next couple days but comes with a couple small challenges: 1 - Will winds fall off enough tonight to maximize radiative cooling in addition to continued cold air advection? 2 - How much mixing will occur tomorrow afternoon and how low will the dewpoints drop as a result?

Starting with tonight, winds have popped up over land in the last hour or two as daytime heating promotes mixing of stronger winds aloft. As the daytime heating comes to an end, the mixing should also be shut off as an inversion develops, and this in turn will cause winds to weaken across most land areas (with the exception of immediate north-facing shorelines). Low dewpoints and clear skies will provide optimal conditions for rapid cooling as the sun sets. Temperatures should fall into upper 50s to low 60s by 9p most places and will continue to drop as the night progresses.

Current forecast is slightly below NBM guidance - especially in our typical colder spots in a nod to colder MOS guidance to account for past high biases in similar situations when it comes to the NBM. The resultant forecast is for lows int he upper 40s to lower 50s generally along and north of a line from Donaldsonville to Hammond to Pascagoula and for lows in the mid to upper 50s across basically the south shore and coastal SE LA.

The core of the colder air mass shifts east of the local area tomorrow, and highs should rebound into the 70s. As air temperatures heat up, daytime mixing will once again bring down drier and slightly breezier conditions from aloft. Have once again adjusted dewpoints below NBM guidance accounting for known biases in both the NBM and other guidance sources in this kind of pattern. Minimum relative humidity values will once again drop into the 30-40% range across roughly the northern half of the area. Though lighter winds will keep us below red flag warning criteria, there will still be at least some potential for fast fire growth owing to the low relative humidity and drier than normal fuels across most of the area.

With the high forecast to remain generally in place to start the work week, expect to see similar conditions persist through Tuesday. Morning temperatures will remain cooler than normal with afternoon temperatures gradually warming to near or slightly above normal by Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

With the ridge axis to remain roughly in place through the week, expect only gradual modification to the airmass. Morning lows will remain near to below normal through the week with afternoon highs continuing to warm by a couple degrees each day, rising well above normal and possibly as high as the upper 80s by the end of the week. This will result in somewhat large diurnal ranges for the Gulf coast. Dry conditions will persist as well with no rain chances to speak up in the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 731 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across all terminals through the TAF period as the much drier postfrontal airmass remains in place. The main concern will continue to be the northeasterly winds, although speeds should gradually decrease overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds will remain somewhat elevated at MSY and especially NEW due to their proximity to Lake Pontchartrain, with gusts around 20 kt still possible overnight. Farther inland, winds should become lighter as the boundary layer decouples. One thing to note is a brief period of LLWS included at ASD around 07Z as stronger winds remain just above the surface. Otherwise, the dry airmass should prevent any fog or low ceiling concerns, with VFR conditions continuing through Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Hazardous conditions will persist across the coastal waters through tonight with gale warnings or small craft advisories in effect for all coastal waters. Winds will gradually ease tonight and will turn more easterly Sunday. Some question in how strong winds will remain during the day Sunday, so advisory headlines have not been extended at this time, but either advisory or caution headlines will be needed for all waters through at least 00z Monday. A moderate to strong easterly wind will then persist to start the work week with additional headlines likely across most of the coast waters through midweek.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ529-531>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572.

Gale Warning until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ531>536-541- 543-551-553-554-557-570-572.

Gale Warning until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ577.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ577.