textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Elevated fire danger will remain in place through the weekend. The current and worsening drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and slightly higher winds will lead to potential for rapid fire growth. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Strengthening winds across the coastal waters will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft through the weekend across all open Gulf waters of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi, as well the sounds and lakes east of the Mississippi River.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Strong and deep ridging will remain over the forecast area through Monday. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the east on Tuesday as a weak shortwave trough lifts out of the Four Corners, but a lack of moisture return will keep rain chances minimal through the short term period. With the center of the surface ridge to the north-northeast of the area, a persistent east- northeast wind will keep any low level moisture return at bay. Thus, a continuation of the conditions we have seen the past several days with clear skies, low humidity, and a larger than normal diurnal range of temperature will continue through Tuesday night. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s each day and lows will dip into the low to mid 50s inland the upper 50s and lower south of the tidal lakes and along the immediate coast of Louisiana.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The dry pattern will persist through the end of the workweek even as the mid to upper level ridge axis becomes more centered over the eastern Gulf and southeastern CONUS. This dry pattern will be due to continued surface ridging centered to the north of the area maintaining a prevailing east-northeast wind pattern. This pattern will limit low level moisture return and keep rain chances at less than 10 percent through Friday. Temperatures will also continue to exhibit a large diurnal range on the order of 25 to 30 degrees. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows will still cool into the low to mid 50s over inland areas and the upper 50s and lower 60s south of the lakes and along the coast. Overall, no significant change from the weather we've seen the past several days is expected as we move through next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Clear skies and easterly winds of 5 to 10 knots will persist at all of the terminals through the end of the period resulting in prevailing VFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A strong surface high will become centered over the northeastern United States today and then the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will begin to deepen over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds picking up across the open Gulf waters. Winds will become sustained near 20 knots with frequent higher gusts and a Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters will expand to all waters except for lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador by late this morning. These headlines will likely remain up through the weekend and possibly into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are going to persist through the weekend as high pressure remains over the region. Minimum RH values will fall to between 20 and 30 percent for all areas north of I-10 this afternoon. There should be some slight recovery on Sunday with the minimum values between 30 and 40 percent. 20 foot winds are expected to remain near or below 10 mph today and Sunday north of Interstate 10, and 10 to 15 mph over southeast Louisiana south of Interstate 10. Even with lighter winds, the worsening drought conditions and low fuel moisture content will keep wild fire spread potential on the higher side. A Fire Danger Statement remains out due to this higher fire potential even as conditions remain below red flag warning criteria. As we move into the new workweek, increasing humidity values will help to limit fire potential even as conditions remain dry.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ534>536-541- 543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.