textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 - Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the remainder of the work week with fog potential increasing a bit by Thursday and Friday mornings.

- Next substantial rain will be late in the week and into the weekend as a cold front approaches and moves through the local area. Rain totals should remain fairly low most places, and likely will not result in much, if any, drought relief.

- A significant cool down is forecast Sunday into the beginning of the next work week. The coldest mornings will be Monday and Tuesday morning, with potential for light freeze conditions for some northern areas. Those with sensitive vegetation should keep an eye on the forecast, especially given the recent warm spell with some plants coming out of their cool season dormancy.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the short term with no substantial rain chances. The biggest challenge through Thursday night will be trying to nail down the fog forecast.

Surface high pressure is centered east of the local area, and winds have solidly shifted to an onshore direction. Dewpoints have already risen into the upper 50s to lower 60s area-wide which is about 10 degrees higher than the same time yesterday. Clouds will likely prohibit significant development of any widespread radiational fog and dewpoints remain several degrees lower than water temperatures so advective fog is not a concern. Main concern will be if winds manage to decouple late tonight, allowing low stratus to build down toward the surface. Can't entirely rule this out, but thing the winds will be just enough (4-8 kts) to keep things a little more mixed near the surface. It'll be something to watch overnight, though.

Similar set up for Wednesday night. Winds don't look to truly decouple, with the forecast calling for 5-8kt winds through the night most places. And while dewpoints are forecast to be near or slightly above water temperatures, it doesn't look like there will be enough of a differential to promote significant sea fog development. That being said, most likely scenario again looks like more low stratus than fog, but will need to be monitored.

Going into Thursday, an upper low will be lifting northeastward through the Great Lakes region. The associated surface low is forecast to be lifting into the upper Mississippi Valley, with the trailing cold front extending southwestward. As the lows lift northeastward, flow will start to become more parallel to the frontal boundary causing it to slow and lose its forward momentum. While the front may make it into northwestern Louisiana, expect it to stall northwest of the local area Thursday night.

This will keep the local area in the warm and humid airmass ahead of the front. Could see scattered showers mainly across eastern areas Thursday afternoon, with better chances overnight depending on where exactly the front stalls. May have a higher chance of impactful fog Thursday night into Friday morning as moisture pools ahead of the front, but the limiting factor will continue to be cloud cover, which will inhibit radiative processes.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

With the front stalled near or just northwest of the local area Friday, expect to see scattered and mostly light showers as a result of warm air advection processes. Best chances look to be across eastern areas where isentropic lift will be locally maximized.

Going into Saturday, a second upper level disturbance will move into the mid to upper Mississippi valley causing the front to begin moving southeastward again. Setup doesn't look great for thunderstorms in general, let alone severe weather, but there should be enough support for scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms as the front finally moves into and through the local area Saturday afternoon and evening.

This more vigorous upper disturbance will usher in a significant cool down for the second half of the weekend as winter roars back to life across the local area. Temperatures are forecast to be 15-20 degrees cooler Sunday than Saturday, with lows in the 40s and lower 50s and highs struggling to rise much above 60 most places.

Colder than normal temperatures will continue into the work week as the high settles into the local area Monday and Tuesday. Will need to keep an eye on morning lows Monday, and especially Tuesday mornings. Current forecast calls for near- freezing temperatures Monday morning across far northern areas, with a more substantial threat of light freezing conditions Tuesday morning for areas generally north of the I-10/12 corridor. Given the recent warm spell and greening up of some vegetation already, if the forecast holds, freeze headlines may be required.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next several hours before lower clouds begin to result in mvfr restrictions late tonight and toward daybreak. Trend has been for slightly higher CIGs compared to previous TAF update, with most IFR tempo groups now removed. Any low CIGs should begin to lift after daybreak and will see generally southerly/south-southwesterly winds increase to 10-13 kts during the daytime hours before easing again around sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 1118 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

As high pressure continues to shift eastward, a moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will persist through the end of the week. A strong cold front will move through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning with high pressure building in again behind it. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will cause winds to strengthen and turn offshore again Saturday night with small craft advisories likely necessary through at least Sunday evening.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.