textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- A very classic summer pattern will continue with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The region will continue to reside on the western periphery of the H5 ridge situated over the western Atlantic and northeast Gulf. Like the last several days, afternoon convection, albeit it more scattered in nature will remain possible. Surface flow slightly increases today and low level moisture advection will continue with a bit better moisture quality arriving this weekend. With the deeper moisture, had to consider a Heat Advisory for portions of the region today. However, decided to hold off given that there are still questions in terms of coverage and how early convection fires this afternoon. That said, "feels like" temperatures are going to be close to criteria around the tidal lakes and MS Gulf Coast.

Going into Saturday and especially Sunday rain chances increase steadily as the surge in tropical moisture meets a front that will stall late in the weekend and early next week. Overall the QPF forecast is on average around 2" or so through the short term period. However, with PWATs increasing to over 2.0" expect some locations to get higher with the potential for urban and flood prone areas likely to experience some hydro concerns. Otherwise, outside of hydro potential any stronger storms may produce strong gusty winds most afternoons through the short term. As for temperatures, inversely, as POPs increase daytime highs drop just a bit with most of the forecast area looking to only warm into the upper 80s Sunday and Monday. However, prior to this time we will still need to watch Saturday because there may be a chance of needing a Heat Advisory for at least portions of the CWFA. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Upper ridging will be centered over South Dakota Monday evening, with a weaker ridge near the Bahamas. In between, will be a weakness or trough that will be centered over Mississippi Monday evening, before drifting westward into northern Mexico and west Texas by Wednesday night. Ridging will build into the local area by Wednesday and Thursday. A weak frontal boundary associated with the trough will be over the local area Monday night, but is likely to dissipate by Tuesday or Wednesday. High pressure will be centered along the Louisiana coast by Thursday.

As the trough approaches from the north, precipitable water values near the 90th percentile (2.1 inches) Monday afternoon. This is somewhat of a slower progression than we were looking at 24 hours ago. We do start to see some drying by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, although the GFS solutions are drier than the ECMWF based data. GFS based soundings indicate precipitable water values around 1.6 inches by Wednesday afternoon, and closer to 1.4 Thursday afternoon. This would indicate that areal coverage of convection Tuesday might not be much different than Monday (probably in the likely range), but we should start to see improving weather on Wednesday and Thursday, with perhaps only isolated storms Thursday or maybe even completely dry if the GFS precipitable water forecast plays out somewhat accurately.

Rainfall amounts could still be significant Monday night and Tuesday, with an inch or two not out of the question, especially south of Interstate 10. On top of what falls Sunday and Monday, this at least has some potential to cause drainage problems, and WPC is forecasting a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the 24 hour period from 12z Monday to 12z Tuesday for just about all of southeast Louisiana.

Current forecast highs in the mid 80s for Tuesday might be a bit optimistic if we don't get any sunshine. We should get back to around normal (90 to 92) Wednesday, and perhaps a little higher on Thursday if we don't have too much water to drain off. We should see slightly drier dew points as we get to Wednesday and Thursday, so we could see overnight lows a few degrees cooler, but probably still in the 70s, although the current NBM numbers don't reflect that trend. (RW)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the cycle. However, like the last several days there will be the potential for afternoon convection across the region where VIS/CIGs could be reduced to MVFR or lower in the heaviest shower/storm activity. Otherwise, winds will remain light and mostly southerly. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 138 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Mostly onshore flow as southerly winds are forecast through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek. Mostly favorable marine conditions expected outside of the possibility of showers and thunderstorms. Locally, winds and seas may increase in and around convection and waterspouts will also be possible with the best rain chances being overnight and during the morning hours over the open Gulf. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.