textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Warmer with daily shower and thunderstorm chances next week. No severe storms expected. - Hazardous boating conditions for small craft will continue today. A Small Craft Advisory remains today for most waters along and east of the Miss River.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The next few days will set up rain chances in stages. First, deeper moisture will move eastward on the back side of a sfc high near the SE CONUS coast today. A subtle density gradient will begin to exist from NW to SE across Louisiana. This will help produce a weak sfc trough oriented from the Texarkana region through SELA by Monday which will interact with this moisture to help produce a better chance of sh/ts, although the ts part here will be isolated. This trough and moisture will be at its peak after Monday which will lead to higher chances of rain. This will be the reason that chances increase each day with respect to rain. This will also be mainly helped by heating, so it sets up an environment that increases rain chances each day that are diurnally driven. Probabilities for strong and severe storms are non-existant today and very low Monday but not zero, if this were to occur, the main issue would be damaging winds Monday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Upper ridging over Florida and the Bahamas won't be going much of anywhere this week. A surface high near Bermuda will extend southwestward into the Gulf at the same time. This will keep moist southerly flow across the area all week. The moisture will be sufficient for the development of afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms each day. A couple of shortwaves will move out of the southern Rockies during the week, but will be weakening as they move toward our area. One should arrive around Tuesday, with the second around Thursday or Friday. We don't expect a frontal passage, but the shortwaves should provide a bit more instability to enhance the areal coverage of convection somewhat. The most favored time will be during the afternoon hours each day, but could linger into the evening in a few places. Don't expect any of the days to be a total washout, and we don't have any indications of any organized severe weather or heavy rainfall. At this point, most areas could use some rain, though. A third shortwave could approach the area next Sunday, but that is just beyond our forecast range.

Much above normal temperatures to continue through at least next Saturday. Most areas will see highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Normals around this time are highs in the mid 70s and lows 50-55.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR to MVFR cigs will move from east to west over the area today. Some -RA will also be possible with some of this cover. TSRA can not be left out of the question but highest of what chances there are will be over the southern half of the area through tonight. Cigs will lower to the low end of MVFR levels overnight with a few sites lowering to IFR levels late tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Easterly winds will persist into much of today before easing back to exercise caution levels of 15 to 20 knots tonight. Seas will remain at 5 to 7 feet in the eastern waters due to these winds through tonight. From Monday onward through the end of the week, a persistent southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will be the rule across the waters as a broad surface high over the Southeastern states dominates the region.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534- 536-538-555-557-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ534-536- 538-555-557-575-577.