textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area Thursday through Sunday. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

- A strong cold front will move through the area on Friday bringing potential for frost to some northern areas Saturday and Sunday mornings.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A deep layer northwest flow pattern will dominate the eastern third of the CONUS through the weekend. A series of dry fronts will sweep through the area on the back of this northwest flow regime. These fronts will allow for progressively cooler air to advect into the area on Thursday and Friday with below average readings forecast for both Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will warm be slightly warmer than average on Thursday in advance of the first frontal passage, but conditions will quickly cool by Thursday night. Lows will easily fall into the 40s to the north and west of the tidal lakes and the low 50s south of the lakes. By Friday, highs will only climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s and lows will dip into the mid to upper 30s Friday night along and north of the I-10/12 corridor. Winds should remain just elevated enough to keep any frost from forming. As we move into Saturday and Saturday night, the coolest conditions of the forecast period will arrive with highs only warming into the mid 60s and lows dipping back into the mid to upper 30s north of the I-10 corridor and the 40 south of the corridor. Winds will be lighter and some frost could form in the drainages of the Pearl and Pascagoula Rivers. Conditions will also remain very dry through Saturday and have opted to use the NBM 10th percentile for dewpoints from Thursday through Saturday.

As the deep layer trough over the eastern CONUS shifts to the east on Sunday, a shortwave trough in the southern stream will approach from the west and pass through the region. This shortwave trough will remain moisture starved and will only bring an increase in cloud cover to the area on Sunday. Temperatures will remain cooler than average and winds will turn more breezy as the pressure gradient increases across the area. Winds will also turn easterly and this will allow for some weak moisture advection to take hold in the afternoon hours, but not enough to support any rainfall development through Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Sunday night into Monday morning will be the next best shot of seeing any rain develop over the area as a potent northern stream shortwave trough deepens over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A very strong accompanying front could provide enough low level forcing to spark off some isolated to widely scattered light rain showers, but the trend has been toward a drier solution the past few model runs. If any rainfall does occur, it will not be enough to ease the ongoing drought conditions. Temperatures will be closer to average Sunday night as dewpoints rise on the back of the easterly flow, but a surge of colder and drier air will sweep in by Monday afternoon and evening as the front rapidly pushes offshore. Highs on Monday will remain below normal in the low to mid 60s as cloud cover limits any warming. Continued cold air advection behind the front on Tuesday will keep highs in the mid 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s. However, increasing deep layer ridging by Wednesday that will build in from the west will allow temperatures to climb back to more average levels near 70 degrees by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Moderate northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots will be in place across the waters today in the wake of a passing front. As high pressure builds into the area behind the cold front Thursday night, winds will strengthen further leading to potentially hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds will remain near or above exercise caution criteria through the weekend, with small craft advisories possibly needed at times. A coastal low will affect the waters late Sunday into Monday bringing potential for significant marine impacts to the coastal waters. However, these impacts will greatly depend on the specific track of the low. The current forecast calls for high-end small craft advisory conditions to set in late Sunday night into Monday, with winds in the 20-30kt range accompanied by higher gusts and seas of 6 to 10 ft across the open Gulf waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.