textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index values generally running in the low 100s to near 110 through the end of the work week and then possibly climbing into the lower 110's this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The temperature is already rising and the heat will be on through the rest of the week, next weekend, and into next week. The mid lvl ridge is already becoming centered over the north-central Gulf with ridging dominating pretty much all across the 4 corners, the southern Plains, and Lower MS Valley. The ridge for the next few days will not be anything out of the ordinary but as we move into the end of the week it will build and by late Friday mid lvl hghts will at least be up to 597dm possibly topping out around 599dm just to our north this weekend. With the ridge building like that you can pretty much kiss rain good bye through much of the weekend with the exception being today. The ridge will still be weak enough today while we still have quite a bit of moisture available with PWs still around 2". The best locations for any storms will be areas of southeast LA mainly along and south of I-10 especially just south and southwest of the tidal lakes where the seabreeze and lake breeze have the best chance of colliding. After today the rain is likely done through at least this weekend.

Heat, with the ridge building look for temperatures to continue to tick up and with that there is a good chance we will eventually need heat headlines but as for today things will continue to be very borderline. Main reason is the NBM continues to underestimate the amount of mixing. This is driving the dewpoints down into the lower 70s and thus keeping the heat index in the lower to mid 100s for much of the area and with that holding off on any advisory at this moment. Can't rule out isolated locations getting higher and in all honesty there will be some locations that get into the upper 100s but that is likely isolated locations confined around the tidal lakes and river basins.

As for the lack of rain. If you haven't noticed it is starting to get rather crunchy out there. after what felt like more than half a years worth of rain in about 2 months we have quickly seen the hose shutoff. The lack of rain and well above normal temperatures over that time is quickly pushing the area towards drought concerns and possibly even fire weather concerns. This isn't a big issue yet but if we got another week or two with limited rain impacts could quickly start to develop and accelerate. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

By Sunday the dome of high pressure aloft begins to retrograde over the Red River Valley. Moisture quality will be a lot better with PWATs increasing from around 1.5" to over 2.0" for most of the CWFA, which may be enough to increase rain chances and coverage just a bit to round out the weekend. That said, a likely later convective initiation time will still allow much of the CWFA to warm into the middle and upper 90s and with higher humidity values, expect the need for heat headlines to be there.

Going into the new workweek there will still remain a low-end chance of afternoon convection across the region, but the aforementioned ridge tries to work its way back over the region. By now, with the added low level moisture, slightly more limited late afternoon mixing, and higher heights, temperatures will approach 100F with "feels like" temperatures nearing upper end advisory if not warning criteria Monday and Tuesday next week. GFS has certainly been more bullish with the hotter temperatures. Again, could have some late afternoon isolated convection, but before initiation, headline thresholds may already be met for several hours prior. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions currently in place at all terminals and this will likely continue for the foreseeable future, especially after this afternoon. Today may be the last best chance for any TSRA impacts and that is likely confined to NEW, MSY, and HUM. These locations have PROB30 in their TAFS during the afternoon hours. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Generally benign marine conditions through the forecast period with high pressure mostly being in control from start to finish. Isolated nightly convection will be possible, especially over the offshore waters where locally higher winds and seas may reside around showers and storms with perhaps a waterspout or two. Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside of convection. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.