textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Warm with shower and thunderstorm chances today and Saturday, mainly along and west of Interstate 55. There is potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, and locally heavy rain is possible ahead of a cold frontal passage late Saturday or Sunday.

- Winds will remain elevated for marine areas and may be in and out of caution levels for the next several days. Northerly winds behind a cold front on Sunday will likely necessitate Small Craft Advisories, which could continue through early next week.

- A prolonged period of easterly winds next week could increase the coastal flood threat on east facing shorelines.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Upper ridging was off the Atlantic Coast this morning. A weak shortwave was moving into Alabama. An upper low and shortwave were over Wyoming and Utah. At the surface, the Bermuda high extended westward across the eastern Gulf, Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Low pressure was over Lake Huron with a front to another low over Kansas, and a dryline southwest into west Texas.

This morning's LIX upper air sounding had a precipitable water value just above the 75th percentile climatologically (1.3 inches). Partly to mostly cloudy skies were occurring across the area, with temperatures 77 to 82 and dew points around 70 at Noon CDT.

Moisture levels are expected to increase on Saturday to 1.4 to 1.6 inches, which is near or exceeding the 90th percentile. Any heavy rain threat today and Saturday should mainly be across the western half of the area, but can't be entirely ruled out anywhere on Saturday. CAPE values are generally expected to be in the 1000-2000 J/kg range the next couple of days, but shear is going to be only 20-25 knots. The main threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall will be ahead of the cold front, which should move through the area late Saturday night or Sunday morning. SPC Marginal Risk for a large portion of the CWA with this for the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures ahead of the front will remain above normal on Saturday, reaching into the 80s for much of the area away from the coast. Overnight lows tonight will be close to 70, and on Saturday night, any areas ahead of the front will have lows near 70, while areas behind the front will be closer to 60.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The cold front will continue to move through the area Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms accompanying it. Still some question as to how far offshore the front may make it, with the ECMWF quite a bit more aggressive moving the front offshore than the GFS. The NAM solution is somewhat closer to the ECMWF. Recent GFS runs would indicate more of a threat of rain continuing into Monday than the other solutions.

A southern stream shortwave also has some potential to return precipitation to the area Wednesday or Thursday, but the medium range models aren't in very good agreement on the timing or location of that feature.

The frontal passage will bring a brief period of cooler weather, probably not more than about 5 degrees below normal, with temperatures returning to above normal levels by the end of next week.

With a prolonged period of easterly winds forecast next week, that would increase the possibility of coastal flooding on east facing shorelines, possibly as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Very similar to the last several days, VFR this evening will lead to MVFR or lower as low stratus again develops overnight tonight across most terminals. Maybe some slightly lower VIS, but low CIGS will be the primary story through Saturday morning. Some improvement could take shape, however, this will likely be limited as a cold front starts to move closer to the area bringing more convection along and out ahead of the boundary. Covered convection with PROBs with prevailing -SHRA. MVFR or briefly lower in the heavier rainfall will be increasingly likely toward the end of the cycle. Winds will remain southerly, but may just slightly weaken a bit closer to the frontal passage. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A persistent southeast wind around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will remain over the coastal waters ahead of the approaching front. Behind the front, north to northeast winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots for most waters, and Small Craft Advisories will likely be necessary Sunday night. The current wind forecast would indicate hazardous marine conditions for most or all of the workweek next week. With a prolonged period of easterly winds forecast next week, that would increase the possibility of coastal flooding on east facing shorelines, possibly as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.