textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Near record high temperatures are expected through Friday and not much precipitation is expected through the weekend.

- Morning fog will be possible again tonight into Thursday morning.

- A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring cooler weather to the area for the weekend along with potentially hazardous marine conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Fog is the main theme for the next few days until a cold front moves through late Friday. The fog type is a conglomerate of radiative and advective. The moisture is moving in during the evening and overnight hours but would not be able to condense without the extreme dry layer at the inversion level just above the sfc. So, anything that falls out of tolerance for radiation fog, will also keep it from becoming so dense, although there will still be some patchy fog around. The cold front moves through late Friday, so that would be a non-contributor for dense fog once it passes. There is not a lot of shower activity expected either as the ridge is pinched ahead of the front and the high behind the front bridges the actual front as well. Temps will fall about 10F behind the front from Fri to Sat for highs and lows. This will be a very comfortable feel as highs drop from the upper 80s to the low to mid 70s and lows from the mid 60s to the mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Model agreement is good through Sunday with all of the guidance indicating the continued presence of a deep layer ridge axis over the region leading dry and stable condiitons. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than average as light northeasterly flow persists. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 50s for locations north and west of Lake Pontchartrain and the lower 60s south of the lake and along the Louisiana coast. Highs will recover nicely on Sunday due to the dry airmass and ample solar insolation anticipated with readings rising a good 30 degrees into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Sunday night will some modification of the airmass as winds turn more southeasterly and dewpoints begin to climb. Overnight lows will be near average in the upper 50s and lower 60s inland the mid to upper 60s along the Louisiana coast.

As we move into next Monday and Tuesday, significant differences in the models begin to arise. The ECMWF maintains a more amplified upper level pattern that results in the ridge axis remaining firmly entrenched across the region. The end result of this solution would be a continuation of the dry weather, and also a gradual increase in temperatures back above normal as southeasterly onshore flow persists and warm air from the Gulf advects into the area. Conversely, the GFS has a much more progressive pattern develop early next week resulting in weaker ridging that shifts more toward Florida and a fast moving shortwave trough that slides through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This solution would present a more unsettled pattern with better rain chances accompanying the broad area of increased forcing associated with the upper level trough. Given the large disparities, the NBM solution was used for the extended period. This results in warming temperatures back into the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday and lows rising back into the 60s forecast area wide, and the introduction of low end chance PoP of around 30 percent for portions of the CWA mainly along and south of I-10. With the large differences in place between the models, overall forecast confidence for early next week is signiifantly lower than average.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Most terminals will fall into IFR and LIFR again this morning around sunrise and should slowly move back into VFR by mid to late morning. Thu morning could see this same process occur with vis and cig restrictions via FG.

MARINE

Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Winds and seas remain rather benign across our local waters. Winds of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 2 feet can be expected through much of this week as high pressure builds into the region. Toward the end of the week a strong cold front will move into the region increasing winds and seas with likely Small Craft Advisories or perhaps even Gale conditions this weekend.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM CDT Wednesday for MSZ077- 083>088.

GM...None.