textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Dry conditions will persist through Friday.

- Rain chances will gradually increase going into the upcoming weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

High pressure will dominate the region for the next few days. Some drier air and upper level northeast flow are moving into the area. As a result, conditions will be quite dry for the next few days. And humidities will be a bit lower as well, which will help keep heat index values under 105 degrees. Overall, a pleasant, but slightly warmer than normal few days ahead expected. MSW

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

An upper level low will influence the area Sunday through the start of the workweek, enhancing rain chances for the region. There are still a lot of model uncertainties in terms of timing, but there will be plenty of moisture available, especially Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms will be expected Sunday through Wednesday, especially Monday and Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible if this solution holds, but models are not showing indications of severe weather at this time. Widespread rainfall is also not expected. If the models trend drier, then the concerns of ponding from locally heavy rainfall becomes less of a concern. We will keep monitoring to see how the system develops over the next few days. Temperatures should be generally warmer than normal for this time of year with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 degree range. So, be sure to stay hydrated. MSW

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Under the influence of dry high pressure, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds generally 10 kts or less.

MARINE

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Surface high pressure will wedge down the southern Appalachians through late week. This feature will keep low level pressure gradient somewhat tight and allow easterly winds to remain at or around 20 knots through today. Seas will also remain around 6 to 8 feet in the open Gulf waters. These unsettled marine conditions will gradually abate going into the upcoming weekend.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ541-551-553- 554-570-572-575.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ551-553-554- 570-572-575.