textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Outside of a few isolated showers mainly across coastal southeastern Louisiana, quiet weather with warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the beginning of next week.

- During the latter part of next week, a period of more active weather appears likely. While there is still significant uncertainty regarding the specifics, heavy rain could become a concern mainly Friday and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Generally drier and cooler the next few days as high pressure slides to the west. Rain chances will be isolated to low through Tuesday. Southerly winds will return to the surface pattern Tuesday and onward, which will help advect warm and moist air back into the region. But until that point, temperatures should remain quite pleasant with highs in the low 90s to upper 80s, dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s and heat index values in the mid 90s. MSW

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Tuesday through Thursday, the ridging starts to slide east, so rain chances increase Thursday. But generally dry on Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated rain chances expected in the afternoons. Highs will be in the low 90s with heat index values in the low 100s by Thursday thanks to the influx of warm, moist air from southerly flow. But overall, dry and mild Tuesday and Wednesday into Thursday.

Thursday through the weekend, enhanced rain chances will be expected as we undergo a bit of a pattern change and a shortwave trough influences the region. Southerly surface winds will help to advect moisture and warm air into the region. PWs will be increasing Thursday through the weekend as well, signaling a higher efficiency in the rainfall. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected mainly Friday through the weekend, but some scattered showers will be expected Thursday afternoon along the coastal areas.

There is still a lack of model consensus regarding the weekend forecast, but generally Saturday and Sunday look to be the wettest days of the pattern right now. This will be highly dependent on the speed and placement of the trough as it develops this week. Generally, PWs are forecast to be around 1.8 inches, so the rainfall will continue to be quite efficient with 1-2 inch per hour or more rainfall rates expected. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a concern if the trend holds through the week. We will be monitoring closely for changes. MSW

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

No significant concerns for aviators as VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all of the terminals. There will be passing mid to high level cloud cover through tomorrow, but the decks will remain well above 3000 feet.

MARINE

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Easterly winds around 15 knots will ease west of the Miss River early this morning. Winds over all coastal waters will become light and sometimes variable through Monday. Winds will become predominantly SE by Tuesday at around 10 knots the rise further into mid next week to around 15 to 20 knots as a cold front approaches the coast.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.