textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Strong heat will be back with heat index readings up to 108F this weekend and into the new workweek with heat advisories becoming increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.

- Ongoing minor river flooding continues to impact parts of the Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins.

- Potential for heavy rainfall and strong/severe storms returns toward the middle of next week as an easterly waves moves over the region.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Taking a look at the radar and satellite over the region, much quieter today than the last few. This is because the region is undergoing a pattern change with an upper level ridge building eastward into the region from Texas. This 593dam ridge should build over our region through the day on Saturday. With all the recent rainfall, humidity values during the afternoon will remain elevated despite some mixing during peak heating. A Heat Advisory has been issued around the tidal lakes for Saturday where temperatures and humidity increase the "feels like" temperatures to potentially hazardous levels (generally 108F to 110F respectively).

Going into Sunday and Monday the ridge continues to park itself over the region, which will again have two primary impacts. First, with the subsidence around any type of shower/storm activity will be limited substantially...so more time to dry out. Secondly, however, is the bad news. Temperatures will be above average with "feels like" temperatures nearing hazardous thresholds each afternoon. By Monday the ridge begins to lift northward toward the midsouth. This will be the start of another pattern change, but most of the impacts of that will be felt in the long term. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The pattern looks to turn rather wet once again in the long term. Globals are hinting that an inverted H5 trough (or easterly wave) will round the southern periphery of the upper level ridge that will settle as a strong 598dam heat bubble somewhere over the upper Ohio River Valley. This will help generate at least diurnally driven convection starting on Tuesday and really picking up on Wednesday and Thursday. Globals are a bit different in terms of timing of the inverted impulses with the GFS being the quicker solution. Although rain chances have increased, they are not increasing too quickly because of the slight uncertainty in terms of timing, but still middle of the road POPs is the best practice here given if nothing else there will be sea breeze activity even if the best support is delayed a bit. As POPs increase temperatures will drop slightly, which should take care of any need for heat headlines later in the cycle. Temperatures are still in the lower 90s, but if POPs continue to increase and more confidence develops as it should, temperatures will likely respond in a slight downward trend toward average for late June and early July. (Frye)

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A strong ridge of high pressure will keep dry conditions in place through the entire period. This will prohibit any fog or low stratus from developing, so VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Mostly favorable marine conditions through the upcoming weekend with generally light southerly onshore flow expected. Rain chances are also on the lower end due to high pressure building into the region. This high will move north of the local waters early next week and be replaced with an easterly wave that is expected to move over the local waters Tuesday through Thursday. With this wave expect an uptick in convection with higher rain chances, mostly during the overnight and morning hours. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around convection along with frequent cloud-to-water lightning. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ057-058- 076>078-080-082-084-086-087-098>100.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.