textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Severe weather increasingly likely tonight. Main threats will be damaging winds (60+mph) and lightning. An embedded tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Wind gusts may approach 30 mph tonight and into Sunday. - Warmer than average temperatures next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The primary forecast concern continues be the severe potential of a quasi- linear convective line that will pass through the area during the overnight hours. Fortunately, timing of this line has high confidence as all of the various high resolution convectively aided models indicate that the line will progress through the CWA between about 11 pm and 6 am. The Baton Rouge region is expected to be impacted between midnight and 2 am. New Orleans impacts are most likely between 2 am and 4 am, and Gulfport impacts are most likely between 4 am and 6am. Both ahead of and behind this convective line, largely dry conditions are forecast to occur. The only caveat is the potential for some cold pool induced shower activity to develop during peak heating hours Sunday afternoon in southwest Mississippi and far northern portions of the Northshore as the primary upper level low transits along the I-20 corridor.

Since the timing portion of the forecast is pretty well set, the focus now turns to the severe potential with this line. The biggest driver of our severe potential is a strong 850mb low level jet that will form during the evening hours over the entire region in advance of a developing pre-frontal trough axis. This low level jet will peak in intensity between 03z and 09z at 60 to 70 knots. As this occurs, directional shear values will peak around 300 m2/s2 in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere and speed shear will increase to 40 to 50 knots. Thus, any deeper convection that forms will not only have a tilted updraft allowing for convection to persist longer, but the updrafts will also develop meso-cyclonic rotation as they deepen. This will greatly enhance the risk of bowing segments forming along the line, and these bowing segments have the potential to produce strong damaging wind gusts and brief tornadic spin ups. Now for the caveat that could limit our severe potential substantially tonight, a lack of low level instability. Although mid-level lapse rates increase to around 6.0C/km, a lingering stable layer with temperatures near 60 degrees at the surface could inhibit most of the stronger winds and tornadic rotation from reaching the surface tonight. Thus, only the strongest rear inflow jet and meso-cyclonic rotations associated with the deepest convection are likely to reach the surface tonight. This will keep any severe events fairly isolated tonight. If instability were more favorable, we would very likely be in a severe risk category or two higher than the current Slight risk from SPC.

Winds will also be gusty starting this evening and lasting through tomorrow as the low pressure system passes through the region. The winds will be strongest tonight as the low level jet forms with occasional wind gusts to 30 mph expected. Tomorrow, in the wake of the passing front, winds will turn more northwesterly at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. These winds will begin to diminish by the late afternoon and evening hours tomorrow as a broad surface high becomes more dominant over the area. By Monday, clear skies and light winds beneath the surface ridge can be expected. Temperatures will also not cool much as the airmass moving into the area is Pacific based. Highs will remain warmer than average in the upper 60s and lower 70s both tomorrow and Monday and lows will only cool into the 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A deep layer ridge axis will remain over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Skies will remain clear and temperatures will slowly warm due to the increased subsidence over the region. Highs will climb from the low to mid 70s on Tuesday into the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. A few inland locations may even warm into the lower 80s. As light onshore flow persists, dewpoints will also gradually increase from the low 50s into the low 60s by Wednesday night. Given the relatively high humidity values, clear skies, and strong radiational cooling allowing for boundary layer decoupling to occur, the risk of fog forming will increase from Tuesday to Wednesday night.

The upper level pattern will transition to a more zonal flow regime across the Gulf South on Thursday and Friday. A weak impulse passing to the north of the region on Friday could push a frontal boundary through the area. However, moisture will remain fairly limited in the mid-levels with PWATS only peaking at around 1.1 to 1.2 inches. Thus, largely dry conditions will continue even as the front moves through. At most, some widely scattered light rain showers may develop in advance of the front on Friday. Temperatures will also continue to warm as southerly flow advects in warmer air from the central Gulf. Highs will easily climb into the low to mid 80s on Thursday and again on Friday before the front moves through. Dewpoints will be in the 60s, so lows will only dip into the mid 60s Thursday night and fog may once again be a concern for the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A convective line will pass over the terminals tonight with IFR ceilings and visibilities, lightning, and gusty winds of 30 knots or greater. Before the line moves in, prevailing MVFR and VFR conditions will be in place at all of the terminals and winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Around 06z, the line will begin to impact BTR. By 07z, the line will be impacting MCB and HDC. By 08z, the line will be impacting HUM, MSY, NEW, and ASD. By 10z, the line will be impacting GPT. The impacts from this line of thunderstorms will generally be for an hour or less. Conditions will improve within an hour or two of the line passing through the terminal, and all of the terminals will be back in MVFR and VFR status by 14z. PG

MARINE

Issued at 1155 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

An approaching low pressure system will allow winds to increase dramatically today. By this evening, winds will exceed 20 knots. As these stronger winds persist, seas will build to over 7 feet and turn rough resulting in hazardous conditions to smaller craft. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from this evening through Sunday evening. The remainder of next week will see lighter winds and calmer seas return as a broad surface high pressure system dominates the Gulf.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570- 572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572- 575-577.