textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Another significant Arctic outbreak will impact the region through the weekend. Temperatures and wind chills will be colder than last weekend, with impacts already underway and continuing through early Monday morning. The primary threats will be dangerously low temperatures and wind chills. Temperatures today will struggle to get above freezing in much of the area.

- Gale force winds are developing and will continue through tonight while gusty winds will impact all of the area with wind gusts possibly over 40 mph across the coast and south of the tidal lakes.

- Temperatures will moderate starting Monday, but still remain below normal for much of next week. Wednesday will be the best chance for rain ahead of the next cold front that will move through.

SHORT TERM

(This morning through Sunday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The cold front quickly moved through yesterday as expected with the cold air arriving late in the afternoon and overnight. Temps are finally starting to drop like a rock with most of the area in the 30s already and temps still expected to drop another 10+ degrees. High pressure is still centered well north of the region and will surge south through the Plains and just east of the MS Valley today. Aloft the L/W trough is continuing to deepen and dig into the Gulf.

Overall the forecast for the weekend has not changed. Very to dangerously cold conditions will impact the region all weekend. CAA is expected to continue across the area through midday and with that and the strong northerly/northwesterly winds we will not see temperatures rise much during the day today. In fact the temperatures at midnight may very well be the high for the day. The strong cold air advection, strong sfc pressure rises, and winds becoming unidirectional from the sfc to eventually h85 by this afternoon under mostly sunny skies will make for very efficient mixing and lead to wind gusts from near 30 to possibly over 40 mph across the entire area. The strongest winds will still be in the Wind Adv area (areas along and south of a line from Thibodaux to Stennis to Pascagoula) where frequent gusts of 35 to 40 mph will occur. This will be a problem as the Mardi Gras parades start to pick up today. As we mentioned temps will struggle to get above freezing, combine that with these strong winds and wind chill values will be in the mid 20s this afternoon and that will be the high end. Once the sun starts to go down and temps start falling again wind chill values will quickly fall into the teens by early evening. If you are planning to attend any parades tomorrow especially any in the evening be prepared. Dress in layers and make sure you properly covered. Also, drink plenty water. The strong winds will help to dehydrate you and your body will be working hard to warm you up and you will need that extra fluid, and we mean water, not just the other types of liquid hydration, LOL.

Overnight is the biggest forecast question as guidance is continuing to advertise very cold temps. The NBM deterministic is the warm outlier, but warm is relative to the other guidance. Overall the NBM is either right at the 90th or above the 90th percentile but it may be onto something. First lets get this straight it will still be darn cold and temps will range from the mid/upper teens to mid 20s across most of the area but seeing some of these forecast lows from guidance within 5-7 degrees of the extreme lows we saw during the January Winter storm last year. That seems difficult. The other thing is the sfc high is likely still going to be north of the area and not quite getting right on top of us till late morning/midday. Winds will not decouple overnight and could still be slightly breezy through at least the first half of the night and winds around 1500-2k ft may still be around 20 kt. This is not going to optimize the radiational cooling potential and the mixing likely helps to keep us from bottoming out. Again we are talking mid/upper teens to mid 20s vs lower teens to lower 20s so the impact with respect to temps is negligible and min wind chills values will again range from the single digits to mid teens.

Highs will be warmer Sunday. That said with no return flow yet and high pressure over the region, LL temps will only increase slightly leading to highs in the lower to mid 40s. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Extended forecast remains unchanged with the next cold front expected Wednesday. Monday morning we will likely see one last chilly morning with a moderate to light freeze over the entire area. High pressure will finally be right over the area Sunday night through Monday morning and the radiational cooling conditions will be quite optimal this night. Lows will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s over most of the area and may be a tad to warm still. Once the sun comes up we will start to warm up quickly. The sfc high will finally slide east of the area Monday which will allow us to begin to moderate Monday afternoon and night. S/W ridging late Monday and into Tuesday along with return flow finally setting back up will allow us to warm up some more with highs back in the 60s to near 70 on Tuesday. Of course this is short lived as the next cold front will move through Wednesday and will bring us our next chance of rain. This will also bring another shot of cold air with additional freezing temps expected Thursday and Friday morning. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR through this cycle. Northerly winds will be quite gusty today and tonight. Some cigs above 5kft will move through this morning but should exit as the day progresses.

MARINE

Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

The cold front moved through earlier yesterday and offshore winds developed behind it and slowly increased through the afternoon but once the colder air moved in the winds ramped up quickly. High end SCY and Gale conditions have already developed and off and on Gales will continue for the next 24-30 hrs before high pressure finally builds in Sunday causing winds to quickly relax. High pressure will continue to slowly slide east moving away from the area Monday. This will lead to onshore winds to returning late Monday but the next cold front will already be closing in, moving across the region Wednesday. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Sunday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LAZ058>060-064>070- 076>078-087>090.

GM...Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM CST Sunday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MSZ086>088.

GM...Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.