textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend with heat index values climbing into the lower to mid 110s. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for today and a heat watch for Sunday. Into the new week at least Heat Advisories are anticipated. The impact of the afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal overnight lows.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Heat will remain the issue for the next several days. There is a breathing of the lower atmosphere each day, which is very common this time of year. This breathing is simply a cyclical event each day of higher dew pts coming in with the cbrz during the evening as hot air rises and the cooler water temps move in to replace. Then the next day, the heating of the low levels mixes things out causing the dew pts to fall during the heat of the day only to see this cbrz replace them with higher dew pts once again. This scenario can be seen very well when looking at dew pts in any model. This can also cause heat index values to not get to the hottest numbers to cause the heat warning criteria. But, the ambient heat will remain intense and some locations should even see 100+F today and Sunday even into Monday. We will keep the heat warning for high heat index values as most areas will at least be close but coastal areas may see the highest of these values.

Eventhough precip numbers will be low to nothing for most areas, there will be a few dots on radar that will show up during the hottest part of the day as a cbrz will help initiate a few storms each day through Tuesday. Without a lot of competition for heat energy, any one storm cell could take full advantage of this to become strong or even severe. This is also a very normal thing throughout the summer months, but its always good to reitterate.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The long term still continues to look hot with the upper ridge stretched from the Desert Southwest all the way to the western Atlantic Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will cover most of the Gulf at that time.

A northern stream shortwave tries to break down the ridge sometime around Friday of next week. However, there looks to be quite a bit of difference regarding any cooling next weekend, with the GFS operational solutions holding any modification of the hot air mass to the west of the area, while the ECMWF family knocks temperatures back to close to normal. Any threat of organized convection looks to be extremely limited during the workweek next week. Precipitable water values from the GFS would seem to have a relative maxima around Tuesday or Wednesday, but drop off again for Thursday and Friday. The most favored areas would again be along lake and sea breeze boundaries, such as the Mississippi coastal counties and lower portions of Terrebonne and Lafourche Parishes.

Would not expect to see much day to day variation in high temperatures, but if the soundings are showing trends reasonably, there may be some variation in heat index values, similar to what was seen this past afternoon when some dew points actually fell into the 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR through this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1055 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms will be possible mainly toward sunrise. Overall, winds should remain mostly southerly at or less than 10 knots outside any storms.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100.

GM...None. MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.