textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions remain in place through the weekend. The rapid spread of wild fires is not substantial through today given the weak wind, however the current and worsening drought conditions and abundant fuels do not alleviate the fire weather concerns. Heading into the weekend winds are expected to increase and Fire Weather headlines may be needed. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued (SPSLIX) to cover this.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Deep layer mid and upper level ridging will continue to dominate the forecast area through the weekend and into early next week. A persistent east-northeast flow regime in the low levels will also help to keep a very dry airmass in place across the area through Monday night. The end result will be a continuation of the conditions we have seen the past several days with clear skies, low humidity, and a larger than normal diurnal range of temperatures. Winds will pick up slightly to around 10 mph over the weekend and into early next week as the pressure gradient increases due to the development of a broad low over Florida, but otherwise no significant changes in the ongoing pattern are expected. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s each day and lows will dip into the low to mid 50s inland the upper 50s and lower south of the tidal lakes and along the immediate coast of Louisiana.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Overall, a dry pattern will remain in place for the middle of next week even as the mid to upper level ridge axis shifts a bit to the east in response to a passing southern stream shortwave trough sliding well to the north of the forecast area. Although there will be some moisture return that occurs in Texas and far western Louisiana from an increasing deep layer southerly flow regime, this will not translate over to our region. We will remain embedded within a deep easterly flow regime with drier air still advecting into the area from the southeastern CONUS. Temperatures will also continue to exhibit a large diurnal range on the order of 25 to 30 degrees. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows will still cool into the low to mid 50s over inland areas and the upper 50s and lower 60s south of the lakes and along the coast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A dry and stable airmass over the area will keep skies clear and VFR conditions in place at all of the terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A surface high will build and become centered over the northeastern United States tomorrow and then the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will begin to deepen over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds picking up tonight across the open Gulf waters. These strong easterly winds will slowly build over the protected, near shore waters, and sounds tomorrow. Winds will become sustained near 20 knots with frequent higher gusts and a Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters beginning tonight and then expanding to all waters except for lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador by late Saturday morning remains in effect. These headlines will likely remain up through the weekend and possibly into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Dry conditions are going to persist into the weekend as high pressure remains over the region. Minimum RH values will fall to between 20 and 30 percent for all areas north of I-10 both this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. Winds will remain on the lighter side today at 5 mph or less, but winds will increase to around 10 mph for tomorrow. Even with lighter winds, the worsening drought conditions and low fuel moisture content will keep wild fire spread potential on the higher side. A Fire Danger Statement remains out due to this higher fire potential even as conditions remain below red flag warning criteria. As we move into Sunday and the rest of next week, increasing humidity values will help to greatly limit fire potential even as conditions remain dry.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ553-554-570-572-575-577.