textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 642 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Another line of severe storms will move through the region late tonight ahead of the next cold front. This line of storms could produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes.

- High winds will follow the front. Gale conditions are forecast to impact the coastal waters tonight into Monday behind a strong cold front. Small Craft Advisories bookend the Gale conditions. A wind advisory is also in place for coastal locations and areas south of Lake Pontchartrain on Monday. And, if that's not enought the winds combined with low humidities on Monday afternoon have led to issuance of a Red Flag Warning for elevated wildfire danger.

- There is increasing confidence that below freezing temperatures will be noted along and north of the I-12 corridor early Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday morning) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Very little change in the forecasting for the frontal system expected overnight tonight. A potent area of low pressure in the Midwest and Great Lakes states will drive a very strong cold front through the region Sunday night. An equally strong arctic high of at least 1030mb will then quickly build in behind the front on Monday. In the upper levels, an associated longwave trough will continue to dominate the eastern half of the country through the short term period, and this will keep deep layer northerly flow in place. The end result will be a colder and drier stretch of weather after the front moves through. This should be the one last shot of cold air before the first day of spring arrives over the coming weekend.

However, before the front approaches, Sunday afternoon is showing up with exceptionally warm temps as strong onshore flow develops and ushers in a significantly warmer and more humid airmass by the afternoon hours. PWATS will quickly rise to around 1.25 inches and temperatures will end up in the low to even middle 80s. These conditions will help to prime the atmosphere in advance of the front as conditions turn fairly unstable. MLCAPE values are still expected to peak around 1500 J/KG Sunday evening in response to steepening mid-level lapse rates that could reach as high as 7.5C/km just ahead of the front. With strong low level forcing and ample positive vorticity advection and lift aloft in place, there will be little if any convective inhibition to speak of in the evening hours. As a result, a fairly stout line of thunderstorms will develop over the Arklatex and then push to the east-southeast into the region Sunday evening. This fast moving line will encounter marginally favorable shear conditions as it moves in with effective bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots and 0-1km SRH values of around 150m2/s2. Although the dynamics will be somewhat limiting, there will still be the potential for a few bowing segments and damaging wind events to occur over the northern and western portion of the CWA.

Later Sunday night, all of the convectively aided high resolution guidance indicates that the initial line of convection will begin to weaken as it moves toward the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. However, the development of another LLJ over southern Mississippi and lower Alabama will support the development of a pre-frontal trough axis that could initially develop somewhere in the vicinity of New Orleans and Gulfport. Increasing low level shear will take hold in advance of this pre-frontal trough axis with 0-1km SRH values increasing to around 200 m2/s2 and effective shear rising to 40 to 50 knots. With ample instability in place and these favorable shear parameters, a few supercells could form over extreme southeast Louisiana, the offshore waters, and the Mississippi coast during the overnight hours Sunday, generally between 2 AM and 5 AM. This is the area that would have the highest risk of seeing a tornado or two develop during the overnight hours, and we will need to monitor the trends to see if this pre-frontal trough continues to be shown in the guidance. The good news here is that the front will be very fast moving, expected to pass through the area in about six hours

Monday will be a day of rapid clearing as very strong negative vorticty, dry air, and cold air advection take hold. Temperatures will start off in the 40s behind the front Monday morning and will only rise into the 50s. These readings are a good 20 degrees below average for this time of year. Very windy conditions are also expected on Monday in the wake of the front as the strong high builds in from the north. Winds of 25 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph are expected along the coast and south of the tidal lakes. Given these conditions, a wind advisory is now in effect for these areas. The other concern will be the high potential for wildfires to occur as humidity values fall below 25 percent. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for 1pm to 7pm Monday covering most of the forecast area. The colder air will continue to feed in on the back of a strong 925mb thermal trough axis Monday night, and a light freeze is anticipated for the northern half of the forecast area. The colder conditions will persist on Tuesday as a reinforcing dry frontal passage occurs in the deep layer northwest flow regime. Highs will once again only warm into the 50s and lows will cool into the 30s and lower 40s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer due to the heart of the thermal trough finally beginning to shift to the east. A light freeze may once again occur in the Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages though.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Subsequent to the passing of the cold front and all the attendant impacts discussed elsewhere we should be seeing the weather pattern dominated by high pressure bringing pleasant weather starting with mostly clear skies and still cool temperatures for late winter. But, this will be followed by a warming pattern which will usher in a very warm first day of spring with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s by the weekend. Rain is somewhere in the future, but right now we aren't seeing it anywhere in the forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A strong cold front will push a line of thunderstorms through all of the terminals over the next few hours. The line of storms will produce a brief period of IFR visibility impacts and strong wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots as they move through. BTR and MCB will see impacts between 03z and 05z. HDC will see impacts between 04z and 06z. ASD, MSY, NEW, and HUM will see impacts between 05z and 07z. GPT will see impacts between 06z and 08z. A period of MVFR ceilings between 1500 and 2500 feet will also develop in advance of the line this evening. Once the front moves through, strong northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots with higher gusts will impact all of the terminals through the afternoon hours on Monday. VFR conditions should also be in place at all of the terminals by 08z as very dry air filters in from the northwest.

MARINE

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Ahead of the approaching front winds will be out of the south at 10+ knots. Then with the approach, arrival, and passage winds will increase to 30-35kt gusting higher and become northerly before dropping back to the 15 to 20kt range. Associated with the winds are Small Craft Advisories bookending a Gale Warning. Along with the high winds are seas on the order of 12ft. These hazardous conditions will last through Tuesday morning before calming through the day on Tuesday. Later in the week, high pressure dominates the weather pattern bringing more benign winds and seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-065>067-071-076-079>086.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-047-048-071-076-079>084.

Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ056>060- 064>070-076>078-080-082-084-086>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.