textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day through this weekend into the first half of next week. While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the 7-Day forecast period. Afternoon heat indices will generally range from 100 to 107 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridge remains over Tennessee and the Carolinas this morning. The remnants of Eduoard were over east Texas, with another easterly wave over the northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms were over the Gulf south of the coastal parishes, with only very isolated activity north of Interstate 10. Temperatures at midday were in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew points were mainly in the middle 70s.

As the wave over the Gulf works its way westward, it will do so in tandem with the center of the upper ridge, which will be over Oklahoma and Kansas again by Saturday. As has been the case the last several days, most areas should remain dry or receive less than one quarter inch of rain this afternoon, but a few spots could see a quick inch of rain or more. Precipitable water values are forecast to be higher on Friday and Saturday, which should provide a bit greater areal coverage than this afternoon or Sunday, as well as a bit better opportunity for heavy rainfall. Similarly, that should make today and Sunday slightly warmer than Friday and Saturday. We'll still be near to above normal on temperatures with highs 90 to 95. We should see heat index values remain just short of the 108F criteria that would justify heat advisories through Sunday, but we'll continue to monitor.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridging will be centered over Oklahoma on Monday, and expand more east-west by mid-week. At that point, it should extend from Colorado to Georgia. That will keep mid-level easterlies over much of the Gulf through mid-week and beyond.

Precipitable water values will remain at or above the 75th percentile along the Louisiana coast, but will occasionally drop to near the 50th percentile across southwest Mississippi. The end result is going to be a day to day development of showers and thunderstorms, with a gradient of PoPs from south (highest) to north (lowest). Most convection should be diurnally based, primarily during the afternoon. If the GFS soundings are any indication, storms on Monday and Tuesday may be more favorable for gusty winds, while Wednesday (and Thursday) would be more favorable for heavy rainfall.

Don't anticipate any large swings in temperatures from day to day, primarily in the lower 90s for highs, although Labor Day would be the most likely candidate to get a little hotter. That's the day that would also be most favored for a Heat Advisory, but that's not a sure bet for now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Cumulus field is fairly well developed near most terminals this afternoon, with cloud bases between FL025 and FL035. Most SHRA and TSRA have remained offshore this morning, but expect areal coverage over land to increase this afternoon. Areal coverage would justify mainly PROB30 this afternoon, with the exception of KHUM, where TEMPO is more reasonable. Do expect most of the current convection to dissipate toward sunset. Could see SHRA spread onshore from the Gulf prior to sunrise Friday, and will need to consider in terminals south of Interstate 10.

Do expect a significant increase in areal coverage of SHRA/TSRA tomorrow as compared to today, and will probably need TEMPO in most or all terminals Friday afternoon. Ceilings should remain in the MVFR range, but visibilities could fall to IFR or lower.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The pressure gradient is expected to be fairly weak the next several days, with the main potential impacts to be daily rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Those will have the potential to produce locally higher winds and waves.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.