textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

- Torrential rainfall possible with any stronger storms through this weekend and into the start of the new workweek. Rainfall rates of 2-5" per hour are possible and could easily overwhelm drainage systems. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday Evening.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

An ongoing MCV is moving across extreme southeast Louisiana this morning bringing with it some strong to severe convection with strong gusty winds being the primary concern for the landbased and adjacent marine based zones. Think most of this activity will miss the New Orleans metro, but will likely end up on the MS Gulf Coast in some capacity as the MCV continues to ride northeast. With these storms there again be the potential for at least some localized hydro concerns. And since most of our local rivers in flood are in MS this will continue to add to those concerns if the complex doesn't begin to decay soon. Once this feature clears, there still remain a few questions about today's forecast post MCV.

So, the overall synoptic pattern remains absolutely unchanged from the last several days. Active southwesterly flow aloft will remain intact. Both globals and mesoscale guidance indicate additional convection developing as early as 8-10am and persisting through the afternoon. Instability may be slightly lacking, so maybe a bit less of a strong storm situation (although a strong wind gust or two will remain possible), hydro concerns will remain. Globals continue to show a well defined upper level vort moving over the region later this morning and into the afternoon. Although instability is a bit lower, the QPF signal from both globals and CAMs shouldn't be ignored. For this we have continued the FFA. Furthermore, given the lack of a break in the current pattern we even extended the Flood Watch through Memorial Day as a continuation of vorts/impulses continue to move over the region. That said, there may be atleast a slight break later tonight (Sunday night and early Monday) before additional convection fires Monday especially during peak heating.

Going into Tuesday the series of impulses and the flow both at the surface and aloft remain unchanged as does the message. Continued active and wet. At this range it becomes a bit more difficult to time the individual impulses, but right now Tuesday morning and afternoon appear to be rather wet as another rather robust impulse moves over the region. Again timing may change between now and then. In terms of impacts, localized hydro issues will continue again both flash flood from a poor drainage and urbanized standpoint and by then depending on rainfall amounts in local river basins, additional river flooding may become more likely as well. Finally, with the clouds and rainfall around the region expect daytime temperatures to remain on the slightly cooler side with most locations only warming into the lower 80s or slightly below average for late May. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

There's no light at the end of the tunnel for this wet and unsettled weather pattern just yet though some slight reprieve is being hinted at later next weekend. After the next upper-level trough and surface low wrings out more deep, tropical moisture over area on Monday and Tuesday, yet another upper-trough will push through within the subtropical jetstream and provide additional diffluent flow and lift on Wednesday and Thursday. This will continue to provide numerous rounds of showers and storms each day with the potential for more mesoscale convective systems and pop-up strong storms.

Preciptiable water values will range between 1.75 and 2 inches each day, or between the 75th and daily max values for this time of year. MLCAPE will range from 1500 to 2000 J/KG each day which is more than enough instability to deep updraft development. High freezing. levels near 14k feet and warm 500mb temperatures around -8C will support warm rain processes within these deeper updrafts, and this will allow for very rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour to accompany the strongest storms. Given the already saturated soil conditions, flash flooding will continue to be a concern each day in the long term period. Storm motion and any potential for back building and training along convergent boundaries will be the primary culprits for excessive rainfall amounts that will lead to flash flooding. Thus, the flood threat will remain highly localized. The severe weather risk remains fairly low next week with the only main concern being the threat of wet microbursts developing with the deepest convective updrafts. A brief and very weak tornado may also develop where storms intersect with any pre-existing boundaries, but this threat is significantly lower than the wind threat.

Temperatures will be near average through the period with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. (TJS)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Showers are departing the region this morning. Behind the shield of rain/convection from late last night, today appears to be very similar to the last several days. Convection will develop and cause issues with VIS and CIG as well as possibly more erratic surface winds in and around thunderstorms once again today. Already see some of this developing just south of HUM. Outside of thunderstorms, SHRA will be common. Southerly winds are expected, but direction and speed may be off if convection impacts the local terminals. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A large area of high pressure will remain anchored over the western Atlantic and expanded across the Gulf throughout the forecast period. This will maintain light to moderate onshore flow with winds right around 10 knots. Periods of near 15 knots are possible, especially in open Gulf waters but probably not enough to justify Exercise Caution headline. As for showers and thunderstorms, daily showers and storms will remain possible with the potential for short term gale to storm force gusts with strongest cells as well as locally higher seas in and near the strongest convection. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.