textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day through the work week as an active weather pattern sets in across the local area. - While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain. Waterspouts and/or brief/weak tornadoes will be possible, mainly this afternoon and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Upper ridge centered north of Dallas this morning. An upper disturbance was off the southeast Louisiana coast to the south of Grand Isle. Surface high was over Virginia. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were rotating around the upper disturbance, mainly over the coastal waters this morning, but are becoming more numerous over land this afternoon, mainly along and south of the Interstate 10/12 corridor. Temperatures are approaching 90, but probably won't get much higher than they are now.

The disturbance over the Gulf is expected to drift slowly west or west-northwest over the next couple of days, likely reaching the upper Texas coast on Tuesday. Another disturbance will enter the eastern Gulf on Wednesday. Precipitable water values between 1.9 and 2.1 inches are expected over much of the area through Wednesday. These are generally between the 75th and 90th percentile climatologically, and are more than sufficient to produce scattered to numerous showers and storms across the area. The best areal coverage is expected over the southern half of the area from the Interstate 10/12 corridor to the coast today and again on Monday. The disturbance may be far enough away from the area Tuesday to limit areal coverage as compared to the next 36 hours. Rainfall amounts each day will be highly variable, with only very limited areas getting heavy rainfall (> 1 inch). If those spots of heavy rainfall occur over an urban area, they could cause temporary problems, but widespread flooding issues are not anticipated. Most of the precipitation should occur during the hours of maximum heating (afternoon), with much or all of the precipitation dissipating near or shortly after sunset each day. The exception would be along immediate coastal areas, such as the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes, which could see showers return near or before sunrise.

Forecast soundings support highs in the 90 to 95 degree range through Wednesday. In most cases, those highs will be around midday or early afternoon, before convection becomes widespread. Areas that see convection develop early could even fall short of 90 degrees each day.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The disturbance over the eastern Gulf on Wednesday is expected to track westward along the northern Gulf Coast Thursday and Friday, and be very close to Lake Pontchartrain at that point, before weakening or dissipating. The remnants of former Tropical Storm Dolly are expected to enter the far southeastern Gulf by Friday, with disagreement on what happens beyond that point.

Not seeing any indications of significant drying or subsidence in at least the global operational runs through next weekend, so we'll be carrying precipitation in the forecast each day. Not a lot of variance between the global temperature guidance, so no real targets of opportunity to make adjustments from the NBM.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

SHRA/TSRA will be the issue for aviation operations, particularly during the afternoon hours today. Have not carried a mention of TSRA at KMCB or KBTR this afternoon, but the threat isn't zero. VFR and MVFR ceilings will be commonplace, with brief IFR or lower visibilities possible where there are direct impacts from TSRA. Don't expect restrictions to be particularly long lasting, but enough to cause impacts. Most convection will dissipate around sunset, with most terminals remaining VFR overnight. The exceptions tonight could be KHUM and KGPT, where SHRA could move off the Gulf around sunrise Monday. Monday will be almost a carbon copy of today regarding precipitation timing, coverage and impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Weak low pressure over our outer coastal waters has increased winds enough to justify Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines over mainly the eastern waters this afternoon, and at least portions of our western waters this evening. With that low gradually working westward, we shouldn't need headlines beyond that point unless the system develops more than expected. Scattered thunderstorms could be a hazard to marine operations each day through the end of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.