textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1023 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Much lower rain chance through the start of the week.

- Extreme heat is expected today and Tuesday. Heat index values 105 to 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas around Lake Pontchartrain for Monday and Tuesday.

- Scattered afternoon storms return mid week. These storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1023 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Ridging builds in from the west over our area to start the workweek tonight through mid-week. The next couple of days will look a lot more like our normal summertime pattern. Daily afternoon and early evening isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible, especially east of I-55. These storms will be sub-severe in nature, but a strong wind gust (40-50mph) cannot be ruled out, along with frequent lightning. This would mainly be a concern for the MS Coast. But overall, these storms will be fairly sparse spatially with 20-30% PoPs daily east of I-55 for the next few days.

In terms of the heat, higher humidities will prevail. As a result, the temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with heat index values between 105-110 degrees Tuesday through Thursday. A heat advisory is in effect for the areas immediately surrounding the Lake Monday. More heat advisories will likely be needed for Tuesday at least. MSW

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1023 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

As the ridging begins to shift eastward and build more over our area , we will dry out a bit more Friday through the weekend. Isolated chances (10-20%) of storms will be possible daily Friday through the weekend, mainly during peak daytime heating hours. These storms are not expected to be severe if they occur, but will have the risk of frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50mph).

Due to the lower chances for storm development, heat concerns will increase for the weekend. Highs will be in th mid 90s with heat index values ranging from 105-110 degrees every day this weekend. Heat advisories will likely be needed this weekend. Take frequent breaks if you are planning to be outdoors and be sure to hydrate! MSW

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. Some patchy fog will lower visibilities at MCB to IFR conditions for a few hours around daybreak. MSW

MARINE

Issued at 1023 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A surface ridge is currently centered in the eastern Gulf which is leading to southwesterly flow over the local marine zones. As an upper level trough digs into the southeastern US, the center of that high pressure will be driven west and into the north/central Gulf. That will put it right near the local area which will substantially decrease the wind field. So expect lighter and more variable winds Tues and Wed. As the trough lifts and tracks east, the surface ridge center than tracks back east which brings our winds back to southwest and closer to 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-064-076>078- 080-082-084-087-098-099.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ058-064- 076>078-080-082-084-087-098-099.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.