textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected through the next several days. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle.

- Heat stress will be an impact throughout the forecast period with near heat advisory conditions each afternoon. The hottest timeframe looks to be the latter half of this week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

So far today, convective development has yet to occur but as is typical some pop up storms developing locally are expected, although not to the same extent as yesterday. Development will move SE out of the Texarkana region later this afternoon toward the area but the limiting factor will be time as it will be just after sunset that these cells begin their approach to the area so they should be weakening. A few of these could reach the area but shouldn't be much more than some left over lightning and showers. This is very mesoscale in scope so it will take getting closer to development and movement before this can be deciphered. The same strength argument will hold as far as downbursting winds and waterspout/weak tornadic probabilities. Heavy rainfall will always be possible with these type of storms, but with good cell movement this afternoon, rainfall accums don't stack up very well. The higher numbers will hold into Tue and possibly even Wed before some drying of PW values cause precip numbers to fall a bit as we move into Thu. All that just to say this is very typical for this time of year. Although some years can be a bit drier, our normal precip distribution is around 30%, give or take 10%, on a daily basis.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Going into the weekend there will be a weak H5 ridge over the western Atlantic and northeastern Gulf. This will continue to promote slightly above average temperatures across much of the southeast. However, being on the western periphery of this ridge will also place our area in a more active southwest flow aloft, which with correctly timed upper impulses within the flow will continue to enhance the potential for afternoon showers and storms, especially during peak heating over our landbased zones (overnight and morning over the marine zones). The best QPF signal appears to be slightly displaced to our north where a more pronounced weakness resides over the midsouth, however, we will likely see some modest upper support with plenty of surface triggers around (mesoscale boundaries) to keep at least some coverage of convection despite the weak ridge in somewhat close proximity. (Frye/Schlotz)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Generally, VFR conditions are spread over the entire area. But, as characteristic for this time of year, afternoon and evening pop up convection associated with daytime heating is a possibility that is handled in PROB30 coding and carries reduced visibility and ceiling in the immediate vicinity of activity.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Winds will remain from a WSW direction through much of the week and speeds will remain mostly around 10kt but a few days could rise to near 15kt. Winds shift to due south then then to southeasterly by the end of the week but remain around 10kt. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day primarily in the late night to morning hours. A few may be strong producing erratic gusty winds and/or waterspouts, with locally hazardous seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.