textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Small Craft Advisories are in place for most of the tidal lakes through this evening. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Warnings are in place for offshore waters.

- Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall on the north central Gulf Coast this evening. Southeastern LA coastal areas plus inland Jackson County and all of Hancock and Harrison Counties MS are under a Tropical Storm Warning and coastal Jackson County MS is under a Hurricane Warning. Much of coastal southeast LA and coastal MS are under Storm Surge Warnings.

- Potential impacts from Hurricane Isaias include blustery to damaging winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous waves/seas on the coastal waters.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Still watching Isaias and its local impacts. Associated watches and warnings expected to hold through tomorrow afternoon or evening. The only real threat here is gusty to damaging winds, had reports from lower Plaquemines of gusts around 50 mph and several reports of power outages. Heavier rain gradient is near Mobile, so most we are expecting is about an inch in Jackson County and less than a tenth everywhere else in the area. We are expecting storm surge of 3-5 feet that could cause minor coastal flooding.

Once Isaias makes landfall this evening and moves/weakens inland we still have a period of lingering 15-20mph winds through Saturday afternoon. There is also a slight chance of a few lingering very light showers through tomorrow morning. As is typical of the day after a lot of tropical systems, the highlight tomorrow is going to be very pleasant with partly cloudy to clear skies, temperatures in the 80s and humidities in the 50% range.

Sunday into Monday the notable conditions will be a warming trend with daytime highs around 90, which is about 10 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday night) Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

High pressure ridging to our north maintains clear weather and warm temperatures. We will continue to see daytime highs around 90, light and variable winds, and clear skies. Our next chance for rain is well beyond this forecast period and may hold out until next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

At issuance time, all locations expected to be at VFR except KGPT at MVFR due to low CIG from Isaias cloudcover. Most locations have Wind Shear coding over the next several hours. All locations likely to drop to MVFR conditions due to low CIGs at end of forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 104 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Marine conditions have deteriorated as Category 3 Hurricane Isaias continues its track northward to the western FL panhandle. Winds across the open waters are currently from the northeast to north up to 40-45 kt gusting to 50-55kt and driving heavy seas up to around 20ft in our eastern waters.

After the next 9-12 hours, as Isaias makes landfall, winds will begin decreasing in the western waters moving eastward. By midday tomorrow, winds should be back down to 10 to 15 knots out of the north to northwest and seas will be settled to 2 to 4 feet on the way back to fairly calm winds in the 5-10 kt range and seas around 1 to 2 feet into the new week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ070-076-078-091.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ058-077- 084-087-093-095-097-098.

Storm Surge Warning for LAZ070-076-078-091.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ529-531-533.

Hurricane Warning for GMZ532-535-536-554-557-575-577.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ534-541-543-551-553-570-572.

MS...Hurricane Warning for MSZ088.

Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ083>087.

Storm Surge Warning for MSZ086>088.

Hurricane Watch for MSZ085.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ531-533.

Hurricane Warning for GMZ535-536-554-557-575-577.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ541-543-551-553-570-572.