textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Conditions will remain favorable for the spread of fires through the remainder of this week with low humidity and drought conditions continuing. Winds will not be as strong, so spread would not be as rapid.

- Winds will remain breezy, especially over water areas keeping Small Craft Advisories valid into early Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Not much in the way of weather to speak of, and I can always say this is a good thing since our area gets more than its share of bad weather. October is like this though. Very comfortable, dry conditions will remain for this week as high pressure becomes the most prominent and dominant feature on the map. Temps will heat up as we move toward mid week and beyond.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Much of the same looks to continue throughout the long term as upper- level ridging remains in place across the central CONUS. Looking at medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance, there is decent agreement on an amplified ridge setting up between two closed upper- level lows in an omega-like configuration, one over the western CONUS and the other along the East Coast. This puts our area under the influence of the ridge and its associated subsidence, which should keep precipitation chances near zero throughout the period.

The main forecast challenge will be what happens with the cutoff low over the western CONUS as we get closer to the weekend. Ensemble clustering has improved somewhat with the evolution of this feature, but there are still some differences in its progression eastward. The timing and strength of this trough will determine how quickly the ridge breaks down across the central CONUS. A more progressive trough would allow the ridge to shift eastward sooner and potentially bring better moisture return into the area. However, a slower solution would keep the ridge hanging around longer and continue suppressing any meaningful precipitation chances. For now, the better forcing and moisture associated with this system look to remain well west of the area through Saturday, so confidence remains fairly high in a dry forecast.

Temperature-wise, the warming trend from earlier in the week will continue as the continental airmass gradually modifies beneath the ridge. Highs will generally reach the mid to upper 80s across the area Thursday and Friday, with some locations around Baton Rouge potentially approaching 90 degrees. Areas closer to the coast should remain slightly cooler in the upper 70s and low 80s due to the marine influence. With plenty of sunshine and relatively dry air still in place, expect some rather large diurnal temperature ranges, especially across southwest Mississippi and the Florida Parishes. Overnight lows should generally fall into the low to mid 50s across the inland portions of the area, with upper 50s and low 60s closer to the coast and southshore.

By Saturday, temperatures should remain above average as the ridge continues influencing the area. Given the overall agreement in the large-scale pattern, there isn't much reason to deviate significantly from the blended guidance at this time. The main thing to watch will be how quickly the western trough progresses eastward and whether it begins weakening the ridge toward the end of the period. Until then, expect the dry and relatively warm conditions to continue. (JZ)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR through this cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Winds will gradually ease and turn more easterly today. Wind speeds will remain elevated, so advisory headlines have been extended into early Monday mainly for open gulf waters. Winds will continue to slowly ease through mid week with caution headlines possibly remaining into that period.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ529-531- 533.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532- 534>536-541-543-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ551-553-554- 570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ531-533.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ534>536- 541-543-557.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ553-554-570- 572-575-577.