textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 413 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each day through the week. - While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe each day, producing strong to damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain.

- Tropical Storm Eduoard will continue to move away from the area making landfall today along the northwestern gulf coast. Local impacts are expected to remain limited to marine areas which will ease through this morning.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

As Tropical Storm Edouard continues to move away from the area, conditions closest to the system will improve through this morning. The fcast will carry forward with not much in the way of changes from the previous fcast, at least for the short term. There should be a diurnal rythm to the sh/ts that develop for the next few days in that we should see activity inland during the day and over the gulf waters during the morning hours. Since storm motion will be toward shore, some of these will also move inland during the morning hours. There are no real indicators to any one location getting more rain or stronger storms than another, so this daily scenario looks very summerish. As we move into the end of the work week, the two areas over the Bahamas will have moved far enough west to start producing higher rain chances over the NE gulf and adjoining landmass. This air mass will creep far enough west and north to increase rain chances for more areas as well, or at least keep them the same, through the end of the week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Monday night) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Heading into the weekend models show the ridge becoming re- established to our northwest however ridging will still stretch back into the southeastern CONUS before L/W troughing finally digs down along the Atlantic coast Monday. Biggest question is will we see another tropical wave (possibly the remnants of TS Dolly) move into the central Gulf by the end of the week. If we see one more tropical wave this would likely keep the rain chances on the higher end through much of next weekend. At this time see nothing that would suggest rain being completely suppressed over the weekend so will continue to stick with the latest NBM. As we move into next week things may begin to transition more into a very warm and dry scenario.

Heading into Friday night the elongated mid lvl ridge that has been north and northeast of the region will begin to see hghts rise pretty quickly off to our northwest. The ridge will start to become more established over the southern and central Plains Saturday while the ridge axis will still drape back to the southeast through the southeastern CONUS. Ridging will also build to the southwest over western TX and into northwestern Mexico. The one problem with that is that if there is a tropical wave moving into the northwestern/north-central Gulf Friday/Friday night it would get trapped by the ridge building both to the north and west of it while remaining in place to the northeast. Depending on actual location of that wave we could see the potential for locally heavy rain over the area or just off to our west. That disturbance will have no where to go Saturday and Sunday until the L/W trough starts to dig across the Appalachians and Atlantic coast allowing the disturbance to finally escape. With that it looks like we will maintain 50-70% PoPs on Saturday and 40-50% PoPs Sunday with the best chance for locally heavy rain along the coastal areas of southeast LA.

The ridge will be centered to our west-northwest and we may just be on the periphery that would keep us from being completely suppressed. Moisture is still going to be quite abundant and it will not take much to get scattered convection on Monday. /CAB/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

RA, TSRA and associated CIGS will develop again today with most of this activity near the coast. Areas closest to Edouard will have the highest chances of TSRA. The lowest levels for cigs will be in MVFR range with RA and/or TSRA. Most terminals will be in VFR for the majority of the day.

MARINE

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Tropical Storm Edouard will continue moving west-northwest making landfall along the northwestern Gulf coast today. As this system pulls away from the local marine areas, the small craft advisory will be lowered to caution statements this morning for gulf waters from Port Fourchon westward. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will remain possible each day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity. Outside of thunderstorms, winds should remain near or below 15 knots for the remainder of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ541-551-570.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ551-570.