textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- No significant rainfall in the forecast until at least early next week.

- Critical Fire Weather concerns today behind a cold front. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect for today.

- Hazardous boating conditions for small craft due to strong north winds and rough seas today. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for today.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A fast moving cold front will be through the area by daybreak bringing dry air and some cooler temps. Highs will drop back by 10 degrees for highs only reaching the mid 70s. This won't last long though as a quick moving surge of moisture will move over the area from the east starting before midnight tonight. This will also be capable of touching off a few showers and maybe aven a storm or two mainly near the coast and offshore. Once this moves through, we should see a diurnal drive to the sh/ts for the next few days starting Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Upper ridging over the Florida Straits on Monday will take up residence over the Bahamas for much of next week. This will place the local area in zonal or perhaps even southwesterly upper flow for the workweek next week. We'll essentially get into a Bermuda high pattern, which is more of a late spring or summer pattern. This will produce a southerly or southeasterly low level wind flow, bringing a moist airmass to the area, likely for the entire workweek. Precipitable water values will be around the 75th percentile (1.25 inches) for much of the area Monday through Wednesday before creeping up to about the 90th percentile for the end of the week.

While we don't expect a frontal passage across the local area during the week next week, there's likely to be one close enough to bring at least a daily chance of showers and/or thunderstorms to the area during the afternoon hours each day. Timing of individual impulses that far out is going to be problematic at best, so not a strong target of opportunity regarding precipitation chances. No real indications of severe weather or organized heavy rainfall at this point.

Much above normal temperatures expected for the entire workweek, with overnight lows generally in the 60s and highs upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions should be the rule today and tonight. There are some MVFR and IFR cigs to move in from the east by the end of this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A strong cold front will sweep through the waters starting around daylight today. In the wake of this front, northerly winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots and seas will rise to 5 to 7 feet in the open Gulf waters. Given the strong winds and rough seas expected in all of the waters, a small craft advisory is in effect this morning into tomorrow. Sunday will see continued rough conditions for boaters as winds turn easterly, but remain near 20 knots through the day. The winds will finally begin to ease on Monday as high pressure strengthens over the area with southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots expected. These winds will continue through the middle of next week. Seas will also improve to 3 to 5 feet as winds decrease.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Red flag warnings remain in effect for portions of the area generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor for today. This is due to a period of critical fire conditions that is expected in the wake of a passing strong cold front with very little to no rain. Minimum RH values will fall to between 20 and 25 percent on today and winds will be between 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph through the afternoon hours. Conditions will quickly begin to improve on Sunday as winds turn southerly at around 10 mph and humidity increases. Minimum RH values will climb to between 40 and 50 percent Sunday afternoon and then further rise to between 50 and 60 percent each day next week. There will also be increased scattered shower activity that will bring some wetting rains to the area each day starting Monday. Fog is not expected to be a concern the next couple of nights, but may return as we move into next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-076-079>086.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.