textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 well into the new week. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited relief. Those with outdoor plans should take precautions to avoid heat-related illness. Stay hydrated, wear light-weight and loose fitting clothes, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours today and Monday. A few storms could become strong to severe, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rain. When thunder roars, go indoors.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The next several days will depend on subtle shifts in the large scale synoptic players on the NAC(North American Continental) stage. These are very simplistic and are made up of the large upper level stacked high over the west and the large upper level trough over the east. Any flexing of one or both of these systems will have impacts here since we are so close to where these two systems interface. Looking at the H3 level, one can see a saddle moving through the area this morning. This is being caused by the high to the west splitting air away from the low(trough) to the east. The saddle is not what gives us any real issues, instead it more or less stagnates things which is the reason we went to much lower precip chances within a day. But the flow to the north of this saddle is strongly divergent and is the area that moves over us later today and remains Monday. This divergent flow shifts to the east by Tue and Wed. One would think that 25-30kt winds at H3 is not very strong, but on the contrary, these speeds are actually moderate to strong for this time of year at this latitude. The split(divergent) flow aloft is a major key to the added weakness over the area later today and Monday. When split flows occur at the sfc, it causes stability as air sinks to take its place and in doing so warms and becomes more stable. It is exactly the opposite when it occurs in the upper levels. When this occurs, the split flow is responsible for layer lifting below and destabilization. Eventhough weak instability will occur, that is all that is needed to help convective currents break through inversions via buoyant forcing once the hottest temps of the day are achieved. As this area shifts east Tue and Wed, it simply means the ridge to our west takes more control of the area causing stronger stability, making it harder to break through the inversion levels with just buoyancy forcing alone. This makes it easier to see how subtle the flexing of these systems can change impacts to the area quite a bit. SPC has set a marginal risk for severe, and these levels are appropriate for this scenario as we should see isolated severe today and tomorrow, but with a few more of these type of storms Mon. Since these system shifts are so minor and subtle, it does not take much to be off on a fcast even in the short time scale. Either way, the heat will continue and it almost seems that the only thing that will break it is the fall season.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

During the latter part of the work week, a persistent upper level low located over eastern Canada will finally start to lift northeastward as another low dives toward the Great Lakes region. This will cause the sharp eastern CONUS trough to flatten somewhat and will also shunt the stubborn upper high that has been sitting over Texas a bit farther west. The breakdown of the ridging aloft locally should mark a return (at least temporarily) to a more normal afternoon shower and thunderstorm pattern across the local area.

Assuming it holds, the upward trend in rain chances will be beneficial in multiple ways. First, it will contribute to hopefully improving the abnormally dry (D0) to moderate drought (D1) conditions across much of the area. And second, with increased cloud cover and outflow boundaries abound from the showers and storms, afternoon temperatures will come down from their recent stay in the mid to upper 90s. Expect to see afternoon temperatures return to near or just slightly above normal, topping out in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will likely remain at least a couple degrees warmer than normal despite a slight cooling trend into the low to mid 70s by the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Most of this cycle will be VFR at all terminals, but there will be more TSRA developing during the afternoon/evening hours bringing another round of wind and lower flight restriction levels for those sites impacted. All activity will decay after sunset bringing VFR to all sites for the remainder of this package.

MARINE

Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots will become W then SW to start the week. A predominantly light southerly flow will set up by mid week and remain through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.