textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Elevated fire weather danger today, mainly from I-59 on west following dry fuels, very dry RH and light/breezy south to southwest winds this afternoon. The risk reduces Wednesday thru late-week as moisture increases.

- Next rain chances arrive with the next frontal boundary late Thursday into Friday. Rain totals of 0.25-0.75" expected, with better confidence for locally higher-end totals east of I-55.

- No freeze expected following this front going into the upcoming weekend, with above-normal highs (in the 70's and 80's) expected to persist.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1058 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Starting off late this morning/early afternoon: Main story remains to be the dry conditions and elevated fire danger which we'll spend time discussing. Taking a broad look at our regional synopsis/sfc map shows a surface high nearby, beginning to drift off to our east. This has allowed a slow/steady transition in S to SSW surface winds with time. Greater pressure gradient and attendant/responding surface winds are noted mainly across the Atchafalaya Basin on west, further away from the high center becoming breezy this afternoon at 8-12mph, less to the east. Meanwhile, proximity HRRR soundings illustrate a strongly elevated/dry mixed layer developing today. Big note here is this is something we typically see in the "delay" of NW Gulf moisture return is we still mix out strongly in the afternoon as better moisture return lags, which is where guidance struggles making dewpoints a bit too high. Jumped on board this trend by introducing a lowering in afternoon dewpoints edging towards the NBM10PCT which delivers MinRH's into the 30's to 20's making it for another very dry day. With winds noticeably lower, did opt in to provide continued messaging but in the form of a Fire Danger Statement in effect for all areas (except the MS coast where winds are slightly lighter and marine Gulf moisture pulls inland reducing a distinct risk). Overall, an elevated fire danger continues today and caution should be advised NOT to burn today. As far as the forecast goes, did utilize a mention of patchy/areas of smoke through today and tonight for the smoldering wildfire near I-12 between Slidell and Covington.

Going into tonight is where we start to see dewpoints climb, but not getting any strong indicator of fog given NBM percentiles and environmental conditions in the return flow regime. However, locally pertaining to the Lacombe wildfire along I-12, a slight uptick in available moisture and any lingering/smoldering smoke could locally decrease VIS more than we've seen the last few days. Will monitor the situation/conditions closely in case an additional Dense Smoke Advisory is required.

Otherwise, did bump up highs slightly today closer to the verified NBM50pct that we saw yesterday that increases a few areas a couple of degrees, did the same for tomorrow as we'll warm up nicely yet again back into the upper 70's, getting close to a few low 80's with afternoon dewpoints in the 50's within the SW Gulf return flow regime meaning, fire danger conditions will likely reduce going into tomorrow. KLG

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 1058 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Going into Thursday night thru Friday, we'll see a broad/stretched lobe of PVA elongated from the mid MS valley region into the southern plains dive SE into the SE US around a prominent 588dm ridge anchored over the Baja. This is mainly the driving force behind a frontal boundary diving south, with not necessarily enough synoptic-level downstream divergence to allow for sfc low cyclogenesis (more so very weak and along the front itself over AL to the east-coast). Up north and east is were we could see greater/enough forcing to allow for a line of showers and thunderstorms, but synoptic-levle lift becomes noticeably less to the south/west over our area. However, given frontogenetic and WWA at play, surface heating will aid in the support for a bit more coverage (providing a substitute for the lack of synoptic- level lift) to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms along/south of the front on Friday. Overall rainfall totals of 0.25-0.75" seems like a good range, with better confidence for areas along/east of I-55 but exact coverage and attempt at re- developing diurnally enhanced shower/storms all depend on the eventual speed of the front. If faster, might not get as much rain coverage but if slower, could see greater coverage generally along and south of the I-10/12 corridor. Not a drought-buster rain event, but any little bit helps especially given the wildfire activity the past several days.

Beyond this system going into the weekend, we'll NOT have a direct polar connection behind this boundary/system meaning we're not anticipating any arctic air intrusion dropping temps back to freezing. While lows will be several degrees cooler, highs will still maintain in the 70's to 80's through the weekend, making for a very nice weekend overall. KLG

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

For the most part, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. If there is a concern, it would be the potential for localized reduced visibilities due to smoke from wildfires around the area. At present, don't see any indications that trajectories are setting up for this to happen in the near term at any of the forecast terminals. There is a marsh fire about 15 miles SW of KMSY that we'll continue to monitor for changes. Winds will increase again tomorrow, with 15 to 20 knot S-SW winds being rather common during the daytime hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1058 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Surface high pressure will drift east of the area today allowing for a steady increase in onshore S to SSW flow. Winds do increase reaching 10-15kts later this evening for coastal zones west of the MS Delta, thus an Exercise Caution is in effect 6PM to midnight. Thereafter, winds increase more 15-20kts in these zones and pick up 10-15kts in the tidal lakes/sounds and surrounding zones, with a transition to Small Craft Advisory for the western waters west of the MS delta, and exercise caution surrounding. It is possible an extension may be required, but for now have the headlines going through noon Wednesday. Will also mention a persistent fetch leads to seas increasing in the 4-6ft range, reaching 7-8ft beyond, thus, may lead to the likelihood of Small Craft Advisory extension into later Wednesday. Something to monitor. The next front swings through the area mainly early Friday, providing a wind shift to offshore but remains mainly below advisory criteria. Showers and a few gusty thunderstorms could accompany this front as it swings through early Friday, then dries out going into the weekend. KLG

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ550-552-570-572.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for GMZ552-570-572.