textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Very normal summer pattern with warm days and scattered daily showers and thunderstorms is expected through the next several days. Chances of severe weather and heavy rain will be low, a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. The most favored day for development is Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Upper ridging was centered over western North Carolina this morning, with troughing over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered near Nashville. Onshore flow has aided in production of showers and a few thunderstorms this morning. Away from convection, temperatures were in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Heat advisories will not be issued for now as the column will be ventilated each day. But temps will still be just under criteria so a large amount of the area will still reach around 105 heat index each day during the afternoon hours.

In the absence of any organized system or dynamics to support any one place getting storms or not, guessing where the first storm pops up will be like guessing where the first bubble will pop up in water as it reaches boiling temp. This is a very normal summer scenario for our area where your house may be getting a storm with heavy rain and your neighbor across the street is dry. The next several days will be like this. Some days will have a few more storms than others, but for the most part 30-50% on a diurnal rhythm will be the mainstay of this forecast. Within any typical population of storms during any given day in the summer, one or two can very well become a renegade storm producing strong winds, heavy rainfall and even a waterspout/tornado but the risk level is not high enough to have any confidence for any particular area. Going by forecast precipitable water values, if there's a day that might be slightly more favored for development than other days, it would probably be Sunday. And if there is going to be a day drier than the others, it would be tomorrow.

There's little day to day change in forecast temperatures, with any deviation from those numbers likely to be determined by when and where convection develops each day. Unlikely to make any significant adjustments to NBM temperatures through Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

After the holiday weekend ends, the ridge, albeit weaker will remain over the region with the 594dm dome over the southeast US. This feature doesn't really move much through the week and settles right over the area through the end of the long term. In a general sense, any troughing looks to remain north of 35N across the country. This will continue to promote above average temperatures. With southerly low level flow, moisture will continue to advect into the region from the Gulf/Tropics. Temperatures in the mid 90s plus high humidity values will again fuel the potential need for additional heat headlines at midweek next week. The good news is with the rich low level flow along with sea/lake breezes each day, convection will be possible during peak heating, which could help a bit with the heat. Although, at this juncture nothing more than climo POPs (30 to 40 percent) given placement of the ridge and at least a bit of subsidence. Also, with a bit more dry air aloft, the more robust updrafts will likely because strong gusty winds.

There's once again no real day to day change in temperature forecasts, therefore, no real need to make adjustments.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

First few hours of the terminals are based as much on radar trends as anything. Scattered SHRA/TSRA moving northwestward across about the southwest 2/3 of the area, with KGPT and KMCB least likely to see any storms this afternoon. Used TEMPO for terminals with highest confidence of being impacted, and PROB30 at several others with lower confidence. Areas with direct impacts from a TSRA could see rather brief IFR visibilities, MVFR ceilings and perhaps a wind gust to around 30 knots or so. Most or all convection should dissipate by sunset or shortly thereafter. Shouldn't be much, if any, convection at terminals Friday morning, unless it is at KHUM, where SHRA/TSRA could move off the Gulf.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Winds will generally be 10 knots or less and direction will vary through about Saturday, becoming more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the weekend. The overall gradient is relatively weak which is why winds struggle to exceed 10 knots and seas/waves mostly under a couple feet. Scattered showers and storms can be expected each day. A few may be stronger and could produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts, and locally hazardous seas.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.