textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 109 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast through the holiday weekend. While the overall severe weather threat will be low, one or two storms could become strong to severe. The primary threats will be strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding.

- Above normal temperatures expected most of the 7-Day forecast period. Afternoon heat indices will generally range from 100 to 108 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

As we approach the afternoon temperatures have remained a bit on the cool side with showers and storms across portions of southeast Louisiana and the MS Gulf Coast continue as well as cloud debris from this convection downstream across the remainder of the CWFA. This is great news for one less heat and two some much needed rain over portions of the region.

As an easterly wave continues downstream today and into tomorrow the convective coverage will be on the higher end, especially during the diurnal cycle. That said, as we saw this morning even during the late overnight hours some shower and thunderstorm activity will remain possible. PWATs around 2.2" on average will allow for fairly efficient rainfall producers with some instantaneous rates approaching 6" per hours this morning in the strongest activity. With such a moisture column severe weather will be limited, but where there still could be a strong wind gust or two in the wider more robust updrafts going into the holiday weekend.

Eventually, the coverage of showers and storms during the afternoon will begin to decrease going into Sunday. Inversely with more limited coverage expect temperatures to increase again into the lower 90s on Sunday and middle 90s on Monday. With plenty of low level moisture around we will need to pay attention to potentially needing heat headlines for Labor day. For now, heat index values are rather borderline, so at this juncture we will only mention the potential and see in subsequent forecasts if actual heat advisories will be justified. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Another upper weakness will develop over the Gulf early next week and gradually move westward under an H5 ridge spreading east from the Ozarks to the Tennessee River Valley. This feature will continue to be a focus for afternoon convection through the long term. With most of the region squeezed between these two features, coverage will be a bit lower when compared to the short term, however, far from zero POPs. Temperatures through the long term will remain above average with temperatures ranging from the lower to middle 90s. We will also need to continue to watch heat index values as they will remain fairly close to headline criteria. (Frye)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Convection continues to decrease early this afternoon. But more afternoon convection will be possible leading to MVFR or lower CIGs/VIS respectively, especially MCB and BTR. Winds will generally be light, but may be gusty and more erratic in and around convection. Tonight any convection will become more isolated. Need to watch for fog especially terminals the receive rainfall this afternoon and evening. More convection on Saturday just prior to the end of the cycle. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 109 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Mostly benign marine conditions through the forecast period as the pressure gradient remains on the weaker side across the local waters and tidal lakes. Mariners can expect winds generally at or less than 10 knots and seas generally 1 to 2 feet. An easterly wave will continue to move over the region this going into this holiday weekend, which will increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the overnight hours. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around convection. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.