textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 446 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk of heavy rainfall Friday night with the greatest potential in southwest Mississippi and Baton Rouge Metro. - The threat for thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe will continue through Saturday.

- Cooler than normal high temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Storm forced cooling has reached the south shore areas. This is not the synoptic front but is a mesoscale front via cold pooling. The synoptic front is still over central Miss to northern LA this morning. This front is still moving southward like malasses in winter and will stall over the area late this afternoon. This is only the first front. There is a second, or reinforcing front behind this, expected in by tonight. The first will stall along the coast while the second will simply tighten the thermal and mositure gradient of the first. Most activity this morning as far as sh/ts are elevated and the front that moves in will keep this as is with subsequent storms that move over this boundary. There is still the possibility that one or two storms produce hail, but wind and tornadic storms would be a lower risk level. Friday, is a bit different and will depend on where this thermal boundary is located exactly. Dynamic loads rise with a sfc low developing to the west due to a short wave ejecting from the base of the long wave trough. This would revive the potential for sfc based svr storms, IF the thermal boundary is able to move inland. If not, strong/severe storms would remain along and south of this boundary.

This may get confusing, but here it goes. The first front that stalls at the coast remains there while a sfc low develops out west with an adjoining cold front itself. This, by definition, causes the stalled front over the coast to become a stalled warm front. At the moment, it seems that the sfc low will not be strong enough to displace this warm frontal boundary that far north, but for such weak small scale interactions, we will need to get within several hours of when this occurs Friday which will dictate how far inland we can show chances of severe storms. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall for a portion of the area Fri and this looks good. The sfc low will be able to sling a lot of moisture up into the exiting short wave causing an outbreak of a shield of sh/ts some moderate to heavy moving over the same areas along and behind this now named warm front as well as along the actual cold front as it moves through Fri night into Sat. Rainfall totals today through Saturday should be widespread 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts. Rain ends Sat as the weak sfc low moves east bringing back the dry but cooler wx. Highs Fri through Sunday will be below normals for this time of year. Normals are around 80F while highs Friday will only make it to around 70F and by Sunday, will struggle getting into the mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Frontal boundary should be east and south of the area at sunrise Saturday, with the southern stream shortwave exiting the area. The axis of the northern stream trough should cross the area Saturday afternoon. That will be the impulse that drives the drier air into the area for Sunday and the first part of next week. There may be some lingering light rain for a few hours Saturday morning, but beyond that point, no precipitation is expected until probably Wednesday. That will be driven by a southern stream shortwave ejecting from the southern Rockies northeastward into the Ohio River Valley.

It may take most of the day Saturday to get rid of the cloud cover behind the front, but even if we get some sunshine, forecast soundings wouldn't support high temperatures much higher than 68-74. Breezy conditions will make it feel even cooler after the warm temperatures of the past week. Looking at mid 70s on Sunday, then back close to normal for Monday through Wednesday (lower 80s). Sunday and Monday mornings will see lows in the middle and upper 40s across the northern half of the area, and in the 50s south, before low temperatures return to near normal for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings (upper 50s to lower 60s).

RW

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Most cigs have become MVFR to VFR with rain moving out at least temporarily. A good chance of SHRA and isolated TSRA will remain through this taf cycle causing MVFR to possibly IFR conditions while ongoing. Overnight, IFR conditions should be found over a larger area north of the coast while MVFR conditions should be found nearest the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will remain in place until Friday night when a cold front will slowly move into the gulf waters. This transition starts Friday and should be through the waters by late Saturday morning. Seas will remain up to 3 feet until the front moves through, then northerly winds and seas will rise possibly to Small Craft Advisory levels Friday night into Saturday morning ending during the day Sunday as winds ease for the start of the new week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.