textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

- One last cold morning will likely lead to areas of frost tomorrow morning north of the I-12 corridor from 3am and until sunrise. Although frost is expected, the entire area is expected to remain above freezing tonight.

- Our next shot of rain will be Friday and Saturday as another front moves into the area. Although there is some model uncertainty, a very low-end severe weather threat exists during the afternoon and evening on both Friday and Saturday. Keep checking the forecast for any changes as we get closer to Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 347 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

We have started our warming trend today as an amplified ridge axis over the Great Basin region moves eastward, shifting its associated surface high southward across the Texas gulf coast. Warm air has been advecting into the area since this morning, so we have been about 10 degrees warmer today than yesterday, with some of our northern areas 15 degrees warmer than yesterday. This had led to an overall pleasant day across the area with clear skies as well due to the very dry air over the area (PW of 0.3-0.4 inches).

Because of that dry air, we will cool off a solid 20-25 degrees tonight into the upper 30s and low 40s. It looks like some warm air advection will still be around tonight, so min temps were slightly bumped up to those values, but we still will cool off considerably tonight. Although air temp is expected to stay above freezing tonight, areas of frost will be possible tomorrow morning after 3am for most areas north of I-12 as the ground cools off. This, of course, would melt shortly after sunrise as we heat up though.

The aforementioned ridge axis is expected to breakdown while continuing to shift eastward across the southern and central plains on Thursday. This will also shift its associated surface high pressure eastward across the northern gulf on Thursday, promoting even more warm air advection and heating to start 2026. So, expect another 8-10 degree jump in afternoon temps on Thursday as they reach into the upper 60s and low 70s. PW is expected to remain below the 25th percentile for this time of year tomorrow, so although we warm up, expect a dry and clear day to ring in the new year. Highs were also slightly bumped up from NBM to account for the warm air advection and clear conditions.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 347 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

The shortwave trough that breaks down the previously mentioned ridge looks to make its way eastward across the southern Plains on Friday. In response to this a surface low looks to develop across the Red River Valley on Friday. This does a couple of things for us, it helps finally advects some moisture (1.3 - 1.4 inch PW) into the area and a modest 35-40kt low-level jet forms overhead. This, in turn, gives us 0-6km bulk shear about 40-45knot, which is enough for rotating storms. However,there are some slight, but significant differences in the shortwave, with most of the guidance on the weaker side for it. If the shortwave is weaker, instability will struggle on Friday as the upper-level won't cool off as much. If the mid-level stay too warm throughout the day Friday, MLCAPE values will struggle to reach 500 j/kg, not to mention a weaker shortwave means weaker forcing. So, although we get low development and a LLJ right overhead, it seems as though storms would struggle with the lack on MLCAPE and strong forcing. Thus, this seems to be a very low-end threat at this time with mainly streamer showers Friday afternoon and evening. If the shortwave starts trending stronger for Friday, we could get more active, but, like mentioned before, current indications is that we will be limited to scattered showers Friday afternoon and evening, with a very low-end severe weather threat.

The front associated with the previously mentioned surface low is expected to start to make its way into the area on Saturday. South of the front, compressional warming is expected, so temps were bumped up basically along the I-10/12 corridor and south. Those areas south of the cold front will also have the best shot at seeing scattered thunderstorms on Saturday as MLCAPE gets above 1000 j/kg. The main forcing of the shortwave also arrives on Saturday, so these storms could become organized as 0-6km bulk shear remains above 45kt. However, hail would be the main concern with these storms as the hodograph looks very straight and the 500mb temps look to be around -10 to -15C. The cold front should sweep through the area by Saturday evening, bringing any storms with it.

Although this isn't an arctic front, temps are expected to be 10 degrees cooler on Sunday than what they're expecting to be on Saturday. Ridging behind the front looks to make its way across the Southern Plains the first half of next week, so expect another warmup after Sunday back into the 70s through next Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast cycle.

The only potential concern would be a reduction in visibilities due to smoke. There have been a few agricultural controlled burns near the Mississippi River today that were reflected in surface observations at KBTR and KMSY, and produced weak echoes on KHDC radar. However, have noted a significant reduction in echoes over the last hour or so. Of course, with it being New Years Eve, brief local reductions in visibilities due to smoke from fireworks wouldn't be unheard of, either. Fortunately, last week's fog is no longer around. Have not included any visibility reductions in the TAF package at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 347 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Conditions continue to improve throughout the day today as high pressure continues to build into the region. The next system that could elevate winds and seas will be due into the region late Friday or Saturday with at least some need for cautionary headlines Friday and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 36 67 49 74 / 0 0 0 30 BTR 38 69 52 77 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 37 68 49 75 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 43 69 55 77 / 0 0 0 20 GPT 39 66 51 71 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 35 67 48 72 / 0 0 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.