textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 448 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Complex of strong/isolated severe storms possible once again today mainly for the afternoon/evening hours, with greater focus for areas east of I-55.

- Strong heat will be back with heat index readings up to 110F starting Sunday into the new workweek with heat advisories becoming increasingly likely this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The trough axis that has been delivering storm complexes to our area will begin to shift its orientation a bit more NNW to SSE today and again storms will develop and move down this axis through the day today. Probabilities are a bit lower for severe storms today, but with most ingredients still evevalated, we can't rule a few out. This axis will get shoved farther east as we move into Friday, but not alleviating rain chances. Storms will be harder to develop over the weekend as well, but he heat will be on due to full insolation from little cloud cover and stronger sub inversion. We first reach those heat index levels for advisories possibly as early as Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Not a ton of change in thinking from previous forecasts for Sunday night through Monday night as a stout 595 decameter 500mb ridge axis dominates the region. Warm and dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere due to deep layer subsidence will be sufficient to form a potent mid-level capping inversion. These conditions will persist through Monday night with very low PoP in place. The only rain chances that will occur are if temperatures rise to the convective temperature in the mid 90s and enough low level convergence along pre-existing mesoscale boundaries like the seabreeze is in place to overcome the strong capping inversion. Thus, a token 15 to 20 percent is in the forecast, mainly along the coast and around the periphery of Lake Pontchartrain for very isolated convective development. The potential for a few severe storms will exist as as drier air aloft entrains into these deeper updrafts resulting in some evaporative cooling within the updraft itself. As the updraft cools, it could descend rapidly to the ground and produce wet microburst damaging wind events. Otherwise, the main concern through Monday will highs in the mid 90s combining with dewpoints in the upper 70s to produce an extended period of extreme heat in the region. Heat indices will easily climb to around 110 degrees each day, and heat advisories will be needed for the weekend into early next week.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the 500mb ridge will become more centered over the Mid-Mississppi and Tennessee Valleys. This will place the forecast area within the southern periphery of the ridge, and series of weak inverted troughs and associated vorticity maxima will rotate around the ridge and into our region both days. Increasing vorticity and forcing aloft combined with ample instability and a slightly weaker capping inversion aloft will support more convective development both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. Model sounding analysis continues to show a high potential for damaging wind gusts to accompany the deepest updrafts as drier air aloft is easily entrained into these strong to severe storms. Forcing aloft will also help these storms last longer and potentially form into either a MCS or a bow echo as the convective complexes become cold pool dominated. The convection will develop from the east and then sweep westward across the forecast both days due to the prevailing easterly flow in the mid and upper levels. Temperatures will remain very warm with highs climbing back into the mid 90s and heat index values climbing back to around 110 degrees before the storms develop.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 448 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Conditions will be in and out of IFR to MVFR ranges at MCB until mid morning. There should be VFR at all other terminals and the rule for the day will be VFR for all sites unless visited by TSRA. There is a high enough chance of TSRA along and east of a line from MCB to ASD to show in this taf set for today. Tonight will show the same areas with low cigs and possibly low vis but should remain in lower MVFR levels where rainfall occurs.

MARINE

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Surface high will move east bringing onshore flow back to the coastal waters late today, which will remain through the weekend. More thunderstorm complexes will surge southeast along a stationary inland front through today, causing strong erratic winds in and near these storms as they move offshore. Conditions improve over the weekend as winds weaken to light and variable with high pressure moving over the north central gulf. Winds will be higher in and near any storms that develop.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.