textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- River flooding in Pearl River Co and MS Coastal Basins will continue this weekend as water continues to drain from recent heavy rainfall.

- Drier pattern through this weekend with increased rain chances returning middle of next week.

- Summertime temps coming with highs around 90 degrees and heat indicies near 100.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Two broad upper level lows are situated over the country, one near main and another near the intersection of Colorado, Wyoming and Utah. Both are quite expansive both also far away from the CWA. More locally, remnant shortwave that was aloft recently has dissipated and the flat ridge near the Bay of Campeche will be able to expand north across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Increased subsidence and expanding 500mb heights will limit convection and moderate temps through the afternoon. Should be topping out over the next few hours with highs around 90. Isolated to scattered storms could develop this afternoon with greatest probs in coastal counties as they're closer to the periphery of the ridge. The depth of warmth is quite evident in model soundings this afternoon. This results in less CAPE than what'd likely be needed for SVR hail. However, inverted-V low level profile suggests at least some potential for gusty winds and with DCAPE closing in on 1000j/kg, a marginally SVR storm not out of the question. Sunday will basically mirror today, but possibly with slight uptick in high temps and heat indicies.

MEFFER

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Should really be feeling like the start of summer end of this weekend and into the start of next week. Monday, the upper high pressure system mentioned above will expand northward into the Central Plains. Resultant 500mb heights over the CWA will solidify low 90 degree highs for all but coastal areas. At the same time,the actual trough axis will actually be shifted more westward over TX vs directly over LA. That'll mean less convective stunting subsidence. Scattered storms (around 40% coverage) mainly initiating along sea breeze boundary convergence. Midweek onward is a little more uncertain than previous forecasts. Deep upper low situated east of the CWA today looks to still be there middle of next week. Global models suggest it will drift southward as the week progresses. How far south it goes definitely will play into how much dry air it pushes into the CWA. That puts range of POP forecasts from minimal to numerous.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A much drier and more stable area of high pressure will continue to build over the area today. This will keep prevailing VFR conditions in place through the evening hours. There will be some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity that develops this afternoon, but the probabilities are too low to mention in the forecast. During the overnight forecast period, weak boundary layer decoupling could allow for some light fog development at MCB after 09z. Obs from last night showed VIS only touching 6sm, so probably similar tonight. Persistence going into Sunday with SKC after sunrise with MVFR CU field mid morning that'll lift to VFR as temps warm.

MEFFER

MARINE

Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A broad area of high pressure centered over the northern Gulf will keep a persistent light onshore flow of 5 to 10 knots in place through Tuesday. These light winds will allow seas to remain calm at 2 feet or less through Sunday. A weak backdoor cold front will stall as it slides into the northern Gulf Monday into Tuesday. This will weaken the pressure field and lead to light and variable winds that period. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will turn back to the southeast as a broad area of low pressure begins to form over the central Gulf. This low will continue to move toward the area on Thursday and winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots from the southeast as the low strengthens. Seas will also increase to 2 to 4 feet as these winds develop.

MEFFER

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.