textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

- Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through much of the week. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals.

- Light fog development remains possible each morning particularly near water bodies. Chances for higher coverage of moderate to dense fog exists Wednesday morning, but forecast confidence is low at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Large scale ridging from the Atlantic continues to hold strong. This is quite common for spring, but the strength of the western periphery of the actual ridge is quite strong for this time of year. This means that most, and lately, all of the precip associated with weaknesses is held farther west and north of our area. This will eventually change, but this is not seen in the short range. A dry, relatively warm, but comfortable temps does help those who are enjoying the outdoors and this time of year is one of the best for our area. But, we all know what is just around the corner, enjoy.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Monday) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

An upper ridge is expected to be in control of most of the Gulf Friday evening. A strong trough will move from the northern and central Rockies Friday night to the Appalachians by Sunday night, and into New England by sunset Monday. While the best upper support will be well to the north of our area, it will still push a cold front through the local area, most likely on Saturday night. While forecast soundings show precipitable water values approaching 1.5 inches (90th percentile) across the northern portion of the area Saturday night, low level forcing looks rather weak. While it may rain Saturday night or Sunday morning, it looks like amounts are going to be very light, maybe not even a tenth of an inch. It does appear that the front will reach into the Gulf, but some question as to whether it progresses far enough to clear out the skies Sunday or Monday across most of the area. Current indications are that drying might make it as far south as Interstate 10 or so, before the boundary starts pushing back to the north Monday night or Tuesday.

Still looks like temperatures will run 7-10 degrees above normal until the front arrives. The NBM deterministic high for Friday is very close to the NBM 25th percentile, so a 90 degree high at Baton Rouge still looks in play for Friday. Saturday might be a degree or two cooler. Highs Sunday and Monday, unsurprisingly, will depend on cloud cover. If we stay cloudy, highs will need to be lowered, and low temperatures raised, as the GFS solution keeps dew points about 5-10 degrees higher Sunday into Monday. (RW)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions through much of this taf cycle. There is a chance of MVFR cigs moving in toward sunrise Wed morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch over the northern Gulf. Winds will remain 10 to 15 kt throughout the week. Onshore flow will continue through at least Saturday with the potential for offshore flow from a cold front coming on Sunday and into early next week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.