textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Through the end of the workweek and beginning of the weekend, very normal summer pattern with hot days and scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms expected. Chances of severe weather will be low, but a few storms each day could become strong to severe with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Waterspout activity will be possible over the coastal waters, especially in the early morning hours in conjunction with the diurnal cycle.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding is an increasing concern for early next week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches from the north.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Through the weekend we have upper level conditions reflective of a typical summertime pattern with high pressure stretching from the Atlantic Bermuda high westward to the desert southwest. There are some weaknesses in the northcentral Gulf coast that allow shallow intrusions of lower pressure and weak troughing. At the surface, the Bermuda high extends into the north central Gulf providing some light southerly flow around its western periphery. Daytime highs reach the low to mid 90s and apparent temperatures stay just below the 108 degree theshold for heat headlines, overnight lows hang in the upper 70s giving only slight opportunities for cooling off at night. Convection is governed by sea breeze boundaries and remnant boundaries after intial convection collapses.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Upper ridging will be centered over the Dakotas and Wyoming Sunday evening, with a weaker ridge near the Bahamas. In between will be a weakness or trough that will be centered near Interstate 40 Sunday evening, just south of Interstate 20 Monday evening, and be near the Louisiana coast Tuesday evening. The upper ridge will eventually head southeast later next week and to Georgia or the Carolinas by next weekend, but that's well beyond the scope of this forecast package.

As the trough approaches from the north, precipitable water values near the 75th percentile Sunday afternoon (1.9 inches) will increase to the 90th percentile (2.1 inches) Monday afternoon. Additionally, the trough never really gets off the coast, so any mid level drying looks somewhat less likely to occur, with both the Euro and GFS ensembles holding precipitable water values at least near the 75th percentile.

The forecast solutions from the operational global models would signal a wetter (and not as hot) period for Sunday through at least Tuesday, and probably Wednesday. If forecast soundings from the GFS are any indication, convective temperatures for Monday and Tuesday may only be in the middle 80s, which would mean an earlier start to thunderstorm development (before noon) and high temperatures remaining below 90 degrees for several days.

Rainfall amounts in a cumulative sense could be fairly significant in the Sunday to Wednesday period, with WPC forecasts currently indicating 3 to 5 inches of rain in that period, with the more favored portion being the southern half of the area. We'll have to see how those trends play out over the next few days. (RW/DSS)

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the area. Convection is present across the area in the afternoon hours, addressed by PROB30 coding, and dissipates into the evening hours as daytime heating wanes. Any local storms could briefly drop conditions to MVFR or IFR due to ceilings and visibility restrictions.

MARINE

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Through the weekend winds maintain a southerly component drifting between SSW and SSE and remain at or less than 10kt. Into the new week and accompanying a passing frontal system the winds switch to generally westerly at or below 10kt. Through the weekend we maintain the diurnal character of the pop-up convection including the chances for waterspouts and locally heavier winds. Accompanying the frontal activity we see a wider coverage of rain offshore, both spatially and temporally.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.