textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 610 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Elevated fire danger will continue through mid-week. The ongoing drought conditions and dry fuels combined with low humidity and light to moderate winds will lead to potential for some fire spread. Residents should obey all burn bans in place and exercise extreme caution with any open flames outdoors even in areas that do not currently have burn bans in place.

- Strong winds will continue to result in hazardous conditions for small craft across most coastal waters of southeast Louisiana and Mississippi into tonight. Additional periods of strong winds could lead to more small craft advisories later in the week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday night) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Through Tuesday, the strong and deep layer ridging dominating the region will remain firmly in place resulting in a largely persistence forecast. Winds will be from the east- northeast in the low levels, and this will hamper any form of low level moisture return into the area. PWATS will remain well be average and cloud development will limited to only some fair weather cumulus each afternoon. Temperatures will also continue to exhibit a large diurnal range of 25 to 30 degrees due to the largely clear skies and very dry air in place. Lows will continue to fall into the low to mid 50s inland the upper 50s and lower 60s south of the lake and along the immediate coast and highs will quickly rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s each afternoon. The low dewpoint airmass has been best reflected by the NBM 5th percentile values, and this is what is being used for the dewpoints through Tuesday.

The ridge axis will shift to the east toward Florida and the southeast states from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, but continued east-northeast flow in the low levels will continue to hamper moisture return into the region. At most, a bit more fair weather cumulus development can be expected, but conditions will remain very dry. Although there will be a bit of mid-level moisture feeding into the area as the overall ridge axis shifts to the east, PWATS will still be well below average at around 0.7 to 0.8 inches. With the mid-levels slightly more moist, have opted to use NBM 10th percentile values for dewpoints in Wednesday. Otherwise, little change from the ongoing conditions is expected with similar temperatures forecast as those forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday night) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Conditions on Thursday will remain largely unchanged from those seen in the short term period as very dry air continues to linger in the low levels due to persistent east-northeast flow advecting in drier air from the Mid-Atlantic states. However, a more vigorous southern stream shortwave trough axis will begin to eject out of the Four Corners region Friday and then pass through the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. As this trough deepens out west, a broad and weak area of low pressure will begin to form in a region of favorable forcing over Texas. As the low deepens Friday into Friday night, low level winds will shift to the southeast and allow for Gulf moisture to begin feeding back into the forecast area. PWATS will quickly climb to around 1.7 to 1.8 inches, or near the 90th percentile, by Friday afternoon and will then continue to rise to around 2 inches for Saturday. Weak mid- level lapse rates and limited instability will keep any thunderstorm development from occurring on Friday and Saturday, but the combination of deeper moisture and increased deep layer lift over the region will support both more overcast skies and scattered shower activity both days. The rising dewpoints will also allow lows to warm into the 60s for Friday and Saturday nights while highs remain near or slightly above average in the low 80s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR at all terminals across the area and will remain so through the forecast period. High pressure over the area will maintain light ENE winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A strong surface high will remain centered over the Mid-Atlantic region today. At the same time, a broad low pressure system will persist over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will maintain a tighter pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds remaining elevated across most of the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory continues for all waters except for lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador through Monday morning as elevated easterly winds of around 20 knots persist. These headlines will likely remain up through much of next week as strong easterly winds of 20 to 25 knots and seas of 5 to 8 feet continue.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions are going to persist through the end of the week as high pressure remains over the region. Minimum RH values will fall to between 30 and 40 percent north of I-10 and 40 to 60 percent south of I-10 each afternoon through Thursday. Easterly winds will remain near 10 mph each day. Continued drought conditions and low fuel moisture content will keep wild fire spread potential on the higher side, but conditions will remain above any critical values that would require a red flag warning. By next weekend, minimum humidity values will increase to 50 to 70 percent area wide, further limiting fire danger potential.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ534>536-541- 543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.