textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 454 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

- Sun and temperature related health risks will be the primary concern with sunny skies and warm temperatures on tap through today. Make sure to use sunscreen and drink plenty of water if you intend to be outside enjoying activities like sports and festivals.

- Most visibilities should remain greater than 1/4 mile, so a dense fog advisory is not expected. But, patchy dense fog in very isolated locations could occur around sunrise this morning especially around river systems.

- A good chance of measurable rainfall will occur along and ahead of a cold frontal boundary late today into Sunday.

- Small craft advisories have been posted for late Saturday night through Monday night for northerly winds around 25kt.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday night) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Cold front currently moving SE over southern Missouri into central Oklahoma this morning. This will eventually form a longer line of sh/ts along it. At this moment, there is some strong to severe storms along it as well. But this will change with time. The front gets to our NW corner of zones around 7pm today with some showers still ongoing. A short wave that will round the upper trough base will start to fire off sh/ts over SE TX around 10pm today. The s/w will produce a lifting RR quad from south TX to near Houston around that same time. This feature will continue ENE along the elevated frontal interface producing a large area of sh/ts. This feature will be located from Lake Charles to Bogalusa around 2am Sunday giving us the best shot of rainfall, although light to moderate. The sfc front will be over the gulf by this time and one can see from the timing of this, that this s/w pulse will not be sfc based. As this area gets squeezed vertically, it will lose the ability to produce any moderate rain and will rapidly begin decaying and be all but gone by early Sunday afternoon. All of this occurs as very dry cool air continues to move quickly into the area. Breezy conditions will make it feel a bit cooler than the lower 70s Sunday. Monday, winds will ease a bit and temps will climb into the mid to upper 70s. This will feel quite nice and very spring like.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A largely dry forecast is in the cards from Monday night through Thursday night. Initially, a very subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of a building ridge axis over the southern Plains and Texas will pass through the area on Tuesday. Although southeast flow will develop on the western periphery of a broad mid-level high centered over the southeast CONUS, moisture advection will be largely confined to 700mb and above and PWATS will only climb to around 1.1 to 1.2 inches Tuesday into Tuesday night. A lack of mid- level instability with mid-level lapse rates of -5.0C/KM will kill off any instability across the region. As a result, the forecast remains dry for Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures will be very close to average for this time of year with lows in the 50s Tuesday morning warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday and Thursday will see the shortwave ridge over the southern Plains intensify and push eastward to become centered directly over the Lower Mississippi Valley and the forecast area. Strong upper level subsidence and warming aloft will keep conditions very stable and dry. Despite persistent onshore flow in the low to mid-levels and increasingly warm and humid conditions at the surface, the lack of instability will prohibit most cloud development. Only some scattered fair weather cumulus is expected to form each afternoon as temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s. Overall, a return to above normal temperatures is in the cards by the middle of next week.

Friday will see a northern stream trough flatten the ridge over the area, and a more difluent flow pattern will develop over the region. The area will also find itself in the right entrance region of a 100 knot jet streak, and this will further enhance upper level forcing and lift across the region. As the ridge weakens, temperatures aloft will also cool and mid-level lapse rates will increase to around 6.5C/km. This will allow SBCAPE to increase to 1500 to 2000 J/KG by Friday afternoon. The persistent onshore flow that has been pumping low to mid-level warmth and moisture into the region will finally get to produce some scattered diurnal convection by Friday afternoon as highs warm into the mid 80s. A chance PoP of 30 to 40 percent reflects this risk well. Fortunately, there is little to no shear expected, so any convective activity will remain on the weaker side. This will be some much needed and beneficial rain as the area is experiencing drought conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 454 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The next 24 hours be a constant transition of wx from NW to SE. We will start with this morning as cigs should remain in VFR along and south of the I10-12 corridor. North of this, MCB could fall to IFR temporarily and possibly some MVFR along the above mentioned line. This will lift to VFR for all sites shortly after sunrise. Some BR will also accompany the lowest cigs this morning and will also be fleeting. A line of sh/ts will be found along a line from MCB to BTR around 7pm/00z and will continue moving SE from there bringing cigs to MVFR and finally to IFR before midnight, transitioning SE through the remainder of the night into Sun morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

High pressure from the gulf into the Atlantic will continue to produce a light to moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch at 10 to 15 kt over the local waters today. A cold front is expected to move through the region bringing northerly winds around 25kt Sunday into early next week. Small Craft Advisories have been posted for these conditions. Northeast winds will shift to east into Tuesday but remain elevated. Wednesday, winds will shift to a more SE direction and ease a bit to around 10-15 kt, possibly remaining that way for the remainder of the week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for GMZ529-531>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ541-543-551-553-554-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ570-572-575.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for GMZ531>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ543-551-553-554-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ572-575.