textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Heat index values will be in the 105 to 110 range for most areas today and a heat advisory has been issued. Those with outdoor plans or work should take precautions to avoid heat- releated illnesses. Drink plenty of water, wear light- weight and loose- fitting clothing, and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning during the afternoon hours.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms return to the area beginning late today, with the highest chances on Wednesday. While the threat of widespread severe weather and heavy rain will be low, a few storms each day could become strong to severe, producing gusty winds and/or locally heavy rainfall. The potential will exist for waterspout and tornado activity as well.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Models normally take the first opportunity they can to spin something up over any warm water sfc. The GFS is famous for this once equations are changed for the spring/summer. But even this model does not do this as it makes its way into the gulf by Wed once it crosses south Florida. The system itself is quite disorganized at the moment but does have some low level broad vorticity to it located roughly 260 miles SE of the Carolina's state line at midnight15. The system is obviously open and this may continue to be the case, but this does not change things for our area as the northern part of this open wave moves over the northern gulf coast late today/tonight. And if you are thinking, how does this feature reach us in rougly 18 hours when its that far away and not moving very fast? Good question, the initializing of storms for our area will be brought by the northern part of the open wave that will be attached to this feature, and yes, that means it is quite strongly oriented WNW to ESE by the time it reaches here. At the moment, this open wave is oriented W to E. Enough about the tropical identity of this thing, what's it do here? The sfc high over the eastern gulf is currently moving west this morning and will eventually make its way inland through SELA later this morning. Winds for most areas will start to become light northerly as this occurs. Convective temps are lowering over Florida this morning, well to the west of the easterly wave, and this is what we will see occur late today. The issue is more heat for our area first due to the subsident profile and gentle northerly winds through much of the day. Then as convective temps lower to those trigger temps, which most of the area will easily reach to east first, we should see storms start to explode. Numbers are not robust for severe storms, but a few like DCAPE values are, so what storms do develop will have the capability to produce strong downbursts with damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will also accompany these storms, but they will be moving west or NW at a good pace, so they won't overstay their welcome. Wed will be the wettest day the way things look presently and numbers do come down a bit concerning severe storms but these numbers are still high enough to get attention so we can't take severe storms off the table. Then again, this is pretty much the case any time there are storms during the summer. By Thu, we will begin to move into a fairly normal summer regime where storms are diurnally driven and 30-50% becomes famous.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The nose of the OH Valley ridge will nudge back into the area to end the week allowing temperatures to rebound some and afternoon PoPs to lower back toward climatology (20-50%) on Thursday and Friday. The main concern if skies remain clear enough would be heat indices approaching 108 degrees which would elevated the risk for heat- related illnesses.

By Saturday, the ridge will begin to weaken and move eastward allowing a weakness in mid-level flow and lowering of heights over the area. This could locally enhance afternoon PoPs once more over the weekend with more scattered to numerous storms on Sunday especially as a reinforcing weak shortwave moves down across the lower Mississippi Valley.

Looking ahead, the longwave pattern within the global ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for a larger mid-upper ridge setting up over the west-central CONUS and favoring troughing and west-northwest flow aloft across the southeastern CONUS headed into next week which could bring temperatures down and potentially bring more convective activity into the area by midweek next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR will remain through the daylight hours. By the evening hours, TSRA will be developing and moving west bringing IFR cigs and vis temporarily to terminals over coastal Miss initially and sites to the west as the evening progresses. As the high currently over the area moves out and the easterly wave moves in, there could be some vertical wind shear created by the late afternoon hours and could make for a bit of weak CAT. Once TSRA start developing, shear values will be highest in and around them.

MARINE

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Aside from a weak easterly wave moving through the northern Gulf overnight tonight, the pattern will be dominated by high pressure influences. Winds will generally be 10kts or less and direction will vary through midweek, becoming more predominantly southerly as high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf late in the week. Generally isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, with potential for more numerous/widespread convection on Wednesday associated with the easterly wave. A few stronger storms could produce gusty winds and/or waterspouts, and locally hazardous seas during the second half of the work week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087- 089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.