textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

- Areas of fog are expected again tonight into Tuesday morning, with locally dense fog possible. Those with travel plans during the early morning hours should be prepared for sudden changes in visibility. Allow extra commuting time.

- A cold frontal passage Tuesday night with showers and a few thunderstorms and breezy to windy conditions. Much cooler air behind the front Tuesday night through the end of the week.

- Hazardous marine conditions to return beginning late Tuesday night. A Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Throughout the long term period, the region will find itself parked beneath a deep layer northwest flow regime. This northwesterly flow pattern will allow for a continued cool and dry pattern to linger through the end of the week. Highs will remain below average in the 60s on Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be coldest Thursday night into Friday morning when a few spots north of I-10 could dip into the upper 30s. The Pearl and Pascagoula River drainages are the most likely areas to see upper 30s occur. Some moderation in temperatures is expected over the weekend, but the area will remain beneath a deep layer northwest flow regime. Highs will warm into the lower 70s over the weekend and lows will gradually rise from the lower 40s to the upper 40s north of I-10 and the lower 50s to the mid 50s south of I-10. Additionally, another fast moving northern stream shortwave trough and a reinforcing front will slide through on Saturday. This feature will be largely starved of moisture due to a lack of return flow. At most, an increase in cloud development and maybe a few sprinkles can be mustered along the convergence zone in advance of the front. Heading into Monday, the dry conditions will persist, but a continued warming trend will allow temperatures to finally approach the average for this of year with highs warming into the upper 70s and lows dipping into the 50s across the forecast area. This warming trend is due to the eastern trough beginning gradually weakening over the Lower Mississippi Valley and an increase in ridging aloft in response.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Clear skies and light winds will allow for strong radiational cooling that will push temperatures below the critical crossover temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The end result will be areas of fog forming and impacting several of the terminals. Where fog does not form, some low stratus will develop tonight due to the strength of the inversion and lingering low level moisture. MCB, BTR, HDC, ASD, and GPT will all see IFR or lower fog and stratus form between 08z and 10z with the most extensive impacts at MCB. Conditions will improve at these terminals between 14z and 16z as temperatures warm and boundary layer mixing increases. At NEW, HUM, and MSY, slightly higher boundary layer winds will prohibit widespread fog development, but low stratus ranging from 500 to 1500 feet is expected between 10z and 14z. Outside of the fog and low stratus concerns, VFR conditions will be the rule at all of the terminals through 00z. After 00z, a fast moving line of showers could briefly produce some MVFR visibilities at all of the terminals as another cold front sweeps through the area. Any visibility impacts should last less than an hour, and the rain threat will be out of the area by 06z. PG

MARINE

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

The first true cold front of the year will pass through the waters Tuesday night. As a much colder airmass advects over the still warm coastal waters, downward transport of stronger winds aloft will lead to high end small craft advisory and most likely gale conditions over the waters. These gale conditions will linger through Thursday morning before gradually improving as a surface high builds in from the west. Seas will respond to these strong winds and increase to over 12 feet in the open Gulf waters. Inexperienced boaters are encouraged to stay out of the waters from Tuesday night through Thursday morning, and a Gale Watch is in effect due to these anticipated conditions. This watch will likely be upgraded to a warning during the day tomorrow. Conditions are then expected to rapidly improve on Friday and Saturday as the surface high parks directly over the waters. Winds will fall below 10 knots and seas will drop to 1 to 2 feet by Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 55 78 50 61 / 0 10 80 10 BTR 57 82 52 65 / 0 10 70 0 ASD 55 78 51 66 / 0 0 60 0 MSY 63 81 57 69 / 0 0 60 0 GPT 58 78 53 67 / 0 0 60 10 PQL 55 77 52 68 / 0 0 50 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.