textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Heat impacts are expected again today as heat index values approach 105 degrees, so use caution during prolonged outdoor activity.

- Flash flooding risk increases Monday. Higher rain chances return early this week, with a Slight Risk, Level 2 out of 4, for Flash Flooding Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The front well to the north this morning will move south through Arkansas today and finally come to a stall very close or just over the northern tier of counties/parishes Monday. The synoptic frontal boundary will not have enough forcing to get it into the area, but convective forcing should be able to do this. The question is obvious that convective forcing needs dry air entrainment so it can cold pool, and this is exactly what happens Monday into Tuesday. Eventhough we have been talking heavily about a tropical air mass, it will mix with the trough's dry air causing this cold pooling with sh/ts. A very similar process occurs with the actual tropical disturbance over Texas by Tue night into Wed. If one takes a look at the H3 level winds(GFS), it is very evident that an upper level trough forms over the disturbance near the TX coast Tue night into Wed. Upper troughs form due to thermal imbalances. And a tropical air mass adjacent to a baroclinic air mass(troughing) is very much one of those thermal imbalances. We can discuss symantics all day whether something is barotropic, baroclinic or a hybrid of both. We will simply say here that it(the tropical disturbance/air mass) will be in transition while moving north through the coastal TX plains. But even that should not be the main focus here. The rain that this helps produce as it sends pulses of moisture along the frontal axis is the main story line. Could there be a few storms with strong downbursts? yes, and this kind of environment will also be conducive for waterspouts. But the main thing will still be rainfall. Rainfall totals want to cluster the highest amounts along the stalled synoptic frontal boundary, and that makes sense, so Mon through Wed amounts are anywhere from near an inch at the coast to 3 inches north closer to this bounary. The wettest day still looks to be Tue and eventhough Wed looks like it could be wet as well, we will need to look at where this hybrid feature will treck for the following days, as it will have the highest most concentrated moisture content. GFS wants to send it packing along the frontal axis which moves it through here while the EURO wants to bring it into east TX and stall it. Climatologically, the EURO would be favored since the time frame(Fri) would weight climo slightly heavier in relation to synoptic obs. The GFS has this moving over or near our area Wed night/Thu time frame which is more heavily weighted toward obs and not as much climo. But the one thing that sticks out is the physics. The GFS, as mentioned above, develops a strong thermal gradient between the trough moving south and the tropical air mass moving north causing the interaction to produce upper short wave troughing. The EURO does not do this(or at the very least a slight inflection in winds at H3) eventhough it brings just as strong of a thermal gradient between the two features. Logic, or in this case, physics would say that the GFS would win out bringing this mass of sh/ts with a lot of rainfall into our area or very close to it as it follows the old stalled boundary instead of stalling it over east TX. This could just all come down to a timing issue as well since the EURO slowly moves the trop feature much slower northward causing a delay in upper trough coupling while the GFS crashes the two featuers together much quicker. More on this system in the long term.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

The operational GFS and ECMWF continue to show different scenarios regarding the eventual disposition of the broad area of low pressure just off the eastern Mexico coast.

While both have whatever mid-level circulation that remains over south Texas on Wednesday, the GFS solutions have been picking that up and sweeping it northeastward across our area Wednesday night and Thursday morning with drying behind it (precipitable water values falling below the 50th percentile Wednesday night). The ECMWF 13/12z run keeps the circulation over southern, then eastern Texas through at least Saturday, before eventually getting it east of the area at the end of the weekend.

Both model scenarios do focus the heaviest rain amounts to the north and west of our area, but on a day to day basis are very different solutions. We'll hold onto the NBM PoP guidance for now, which tends to hold probabilities in the 40 to 70 percent range each day, and considerably lower at night.

High temperatures look like they'll be pretty close to 90 most days, although that'll be highly dependent on when/if convection develops. Overnight lows may not get much below 80 if we don't get some drier air to mix in at some point. This would be supported by the NBM forecast dew points toward the end of the week remaining in the upper 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Some MVFR cigs and vis could occur from BTR to MCB this morning and again Monday morning but will quickly lift to VFR after sunrise. All other terminals should be VFR through this cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

High pressure over the eastern Gulf and Florida will continue to dominate the coastal waters into the start of the new week. As a result, a steady south to southeasterly flow will persist, with winds generally around 10 to 15 knots. These conditions will keep seas near 2 to 4 feet across the open Gulf waters, while the sounds and tidal lakes remain closer to 1 to 2 feet. By Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary is expected to settle near the area and eventually stall, bringing a more unsettled pattern with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Winds may also trend a bit higher at times through at least midweek. The tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf is expected to move inland over Mexico then northward near the Texas coast by mid-week. The interaction between the weak low to the west and the strong high to the east will cause winds to increase from east to west over the entire gulf. Locally, winds will increase into advisory criteria by Wednesday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.