textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1147 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- No appreciable changes in freezing rain potential. Ice Storm Warning remains the same but did expand the Winter Weather Advisory slightly. Winter Storm Watch unchanged. One quarter inch or more of freezing rain is possible.

- Potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms today near and south of the warm front, with the greatest chances along the Mississippi coast. Main threat would be a tornado or 2.

- Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all of the area tonight through Tuesday morning. Winds chills could range from near 0 to 15 degrees Monday morning and from the mid single digits to upper teens Tuesday morning.

- A Small Craft Advisory(SCY) and a Gale Warning remain in effect for all of the coastal waters today through Monday with strongest winds and roughest seas tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A strong shortwave trough embedded within the broader CONUS trough is currently sharpening while its dives across the 4-Corners. At the same time, a southern-stream upper low that crossed the Baja of California is merging with that shortwave as it enters West Texas. As those 2 features phase into a singular feature, they then swing through the Lower Mississippi Valley. A steady stream of mid level moisture can be seen on WV flowing across the southern US sourced from the Pacific southwest of Mexico. At the surface, a weak low is developing in the northwestern Gulf south of KLCH and will be tracking northeastward. A warm front extends from that low into the CWA, basically bisecting the forecast area. Those in the warm sector will face dense fog through the morning hours as warm air with dewpoints in the 60s with coastal Tds near 70.

Its here, along coastal areas, where actually is some potential for severe weather today. If you look at soundings, cold air aloft combined with those mid 60 degree temps and you're seeing some really decent elevated instability. The more impressive parameters are high shear (not surprising this time if year), moderate helicity and climatologically high PW's. So do have some concern for rotating cells. Surface based? That will be the biggest challenge for convection and could be hindered but water temps.

Back to winter wx....surface obs show the freezing located along northern LA and MS basically hasn't budged since at least noon Saturday. However, as the base of the shortwave trough finally starts really progressing eastward into Central Texas tonight, thinking is that it will start to shove that cold airmass and freezing line south/east. As the cold air arrives, so does dry air aloft. CAMs mixed on how far into the CWA the sub-freezing air reaches before it dries out. They range from as far southeast Iberville to Washington Parish to as little CWA protrusion as barely skimming Wilkinson County. Taking all that into account is what has driven conservative Winter Storm Watch area, expansing of Winter Advisory, and only including Wilkinson Co in the ISW.

As the rain comes to an end and subfreezing temps are advected in, there will be a window of opportunity for black ice to develop. Where freezing rain falls will obviously be the most likely and accumulation, or lack there of, will drive that the most. For the rest of the areas that just get rain, majority of locations will have a wind of a few to several hours of no rain but with steady north winds which should dry out wet elevated roadways before they have a chance to freeze.

Regardless of the freezing rain, the arguably bigger hazard for greater % of those in our CWA will be very cold morning temps Monday and Tuesday. Strong high pressure (10351040 mb) builds in and drives the cold air deeper into the region. Multiple nights of hard freeze conditions appear likely next week, and parts of the far northern parishes/counties could remain near or below freezing for 3050 hours. Woodville MS, for example, may be at/below freezing from mid morning today until late morning Tuesday!!! Adding wind into the mix and you really get some very cold wind chills. Think single digits along/north if I-12, then 10-20 degrees elsewhere Monday morning. Extreme cold warning in effect for the next 2 nights for those cold temps.

Will we see temps rebound after Tuesday? Probably not. Realistically likely looking at continued cold though not bitterly cold the rest of next week.

MEFFER

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

If there's a bright spot, the work week looks dry. The bad news is...it won't be warm. High pressure settles over the area Monday into midweek. The northwest corner of the area may not even recover above freezing on Monday, and even the "warmer" portions of the area are only looking at temperatures in the lower or middle 40s for a few hours Monday afternoon before falling back below freezing Monday night. Actual air temperatures Tuesday morning WILL be colder (mid teens to mid 20s) than Monday morning's lows, but without the wind. Those lows will certainly have the potential to cause issues with exposed water pipes. In any case, the Extreme Cold Warning will be continued until noon Tuesday. Highs Tuesday should recover into the mid 40s. Much of the area could see several additional mornings below freezing, but daytime highs should slowly moderate from the mid and upper 40s Tuesday to the mid and upper 50s Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Most terminals are currently IFR or lower due to low ceilings and some lingering fog in a few spots. The fog is expected to mix out as the winds start shifting and picking up in speed. MVFR to IFR conditions will still remain due to ceilings throughout the whole forecast period. There's currently a lull in shower and storm activity but another round will move in early Sunday morning which could impact visibilities again. Any showers/storms should begin to taper off late in the forecast period. Winds will also become more blustery with sustained winds up to 15 knots out of north/northwest with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LAZ034>037- 046>048.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LAZ034>036.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

Winter Storm Watch through Sunday afternoon for LAZ037-039- 046>048-071-083.

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for LAZ056>060-064>070- 076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ068>070.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ069.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

Winter Storm Watch through Sunday afternoon for MSZ070-071.

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for MSZ086>088.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ068.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Gale Warning from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.