textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 953 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 - Above average temperatures this week.

- Moderate to Dense fog may impact the region again for the back half of the workweek.

- Next chance of rainfall will come into play late this week and into the following weekend as a weak cold front moves into the region.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 953 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Guidance has come in slightly more bullish with fog overnight as the low stratus deck builds toward the surface just before sunrise. Not anticipating much in terms of dense fog, but will continue to monitor trends through the overnight. The aforementioned low stratus deck like on Monday will likely be rather stubborn again today. Some breaks will occur later on in the afternoon, which will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s or lower 70s across the region. Similar to Monday, however, if the clouds remain rather thick and less sun is realized, forecast high temperatures could be a bit on the warmer side once again.

Going into Tuesday night and Wednesday the fog PROBs in SREF and NBM have modestly increased as well, so additional patchy fog will be possible across the region early Wednesday morning. Outside of fog, the upper levels suggest a bit more modest ridging aloft and surface high spreading east, which is a signal for a warming trend through the end of the period. The one issue will be how long do we hold onto the low stratus deck that will develop during the overnight. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 953 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The warming trend will be the primary focus going into the long term. That and of course with increasing return flow on the western periphery of the surface high over the southwest Atlantic, there could be some fog concerns each morning. Going into late week, a cold front looks to stall just north of the region in the active H5 southwesterly flow. This may also enhance fog probs just a bit given the dense moisture pooling out ahead. As the front stalls, some shower activity will be possible, but globals aren't too bullish on a QPF signal with this feature. At least not quite yet. A developing upper trough will swing east out of the desert southwest on Saturday. This will help push the front through the region sometime during the day on Sunday. Unlike the last frontal boundary this one will have some northern stream influence with a strong CAA regime setting up on the backside of the frontal boundary. By the end of the weekend and into the start of next week, temperatures may actually drop below average...at least briefly and northern Counties/Parishes as well as cooler drainage locations may see another freeze at the end of the period. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 953 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Low stratus will again develop over the local terminals early this morning. MVFR/IFR conditions are anticipated from early morning through mid to late morning respectively. The stratus deck may drop just a bit closer to the surface, which will make some visibilities a bit lower as well, but at this juncture widespread dense fog is not expected. Conditions improve to VFR by the afternoon hours with only light and variable winds. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 953 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

High pressure remains in place with more benign winds and seas. By mid-week, the high will shift to the east and a persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will develop. These conditions will last through the end of the week. A strong cold front is forecast later this weekend, which will likely increase winds and seas, especially behind the front. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.