textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through Tuesday, and again at the end of the week. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

- A strong cold front will move through the area Thursday bringing potential for frost and the first freeze of the season for some areas mainly Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Overall the remains quiet with no major impacts expected through the remainder of the work week. Even with a decent cold front expected later this week the forecast will remain generally dry and the main forecast problem is on temps, RH, and any fire weather concerns.

The s/w spinning in north TX along with the mid lvl jet running across southern TX and along the entire Gulf coast has led to just enough lift to squeeze out whatever moisture is available in the mid and upper levels to lead to some sprinkles and mostly virga this evening. As this disturbance tries to lift out of TX and across the Lower Ms Valley later today and overnight it may once again try to squeeze out a few light showers but most likely sprinkles and virga. Once it merges with the northern stream system and soon to be deep east coast L/W trough we will quickly move under northwest flow.

Another stronger s/w embedded in the L/W trough will quickly surge down the Plains Wednesday and into northern portions of the Lower MS Valley Wednesday evening. This disturbance will help to deepen the trough across the eastern CONUS while also ushering a strong cold front across the region early Thursday. This will be a dry front but it will bring with it much drier and colder air. Cold air advection will begin Thursday but it will be slow however, it will actually continue into Friday evening. Thursday will be cooler but Friday will be noticeably cooler with morning lows in the lower 40s to lower 50s across much of the area and then highs on Friday likely remaining in the 60s for a good chunk of the area. High pressure will build in at the surface especially as we head into Friday night. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday night) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Forecast still looks chilly heading into the weekend and perhaps finally a better chance for some rain early next week. Medium range guidance is in rather good agreement and has strong support from their ensemble means. Unable to make adjustments to the extended forecast at this time so there will be no deviations from the 01z NBM however it as it is just not coming in with operational values in the upper 30s finally for a few locations. This is at least better than what it was advertising yesterday morning but is still likely too warm for Saturday and Sunday morning, later forecasts will be able to adjust the forecast for those morning.

As we head into the weekend the highly amplified pattern over the CONUS will continue to dominate the country. We will have the L/W trough control the eastern half of the CONUS and another broader trough over the west coast with a highly amplified ridge pinched in- between the two over the Plains. This pattern won't stay in place for long though as a s/w rounding the west coast trough will try to erode away at the ridge while the eastern CONUS trough broadens out some and slides east. Late in the weekend the ridge will be over the area extending north into Canada still. As the previous forecaster mentioned a lot will hinge on the erosion of the ridge and the ridges have actually been a little stubborn while the models have tended to break them down to fast than what has actually occurred. With that the ridge likely blocks the s/w from lifting northeast out of the four corners region and with the mid lvl jet max still downstream of the s/w it will likely try to work east or east- southeast across the southern Plains and close off. This disturbance then tries to break through the ridge early next week over the Lower MS Valley before merging with the northern stream. At the sfc high pressure will dominate the area through Sunday morning and that will likely help to setup two rather chilly mornings across the region. Saturday morning it will be centered just off to the north with light winds through the boundary layer. Very dry conditions and what looks to be clear skies should set the stage for an efficient radiation cooling night. Latest MOS values are suggesting mid 30s now in the typical cold spots. The NBM10 finally seems to be catching on and in those typical cold spots is actually showing lows down into the lower 30s in a few locations but like was mentioned earlier deterministic NBM is well warmer. Saturday night may be just as good from a radiational cooling stand point with high pressure still dominating the area, very dry air in place along with light winds. The biggest unknown is clouds and that could really depend on how firm the ridge aloft holds but at this time it looks like the cloud cover increase should hold off till later in the day as the upper jet finally starts to nose in midday/afternoon Sunday.

There is finally the next best chance for rain Monday. This is associated with that s/w that tries to erode and break through the ridge. Moisture will try to return ahead of it and if the ridge can break down we should see decent coverage of light rain but if the ridge holds rain may be more contained over the southwest and along the SELA coast. /CAB/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

There are still no concerns through the forecast at any of the terminals with VFR conditions persisting. Winds will be LGT and VRB through Wednesday. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Benign conditions will persist through the middle of the week as the area remains under the southern periphery of a surface high. Early Thursday a strong cold front will enter the coastal waters and surge into the Gulf. Behind it strong northwest winds will quickly develop with hazardous conditions developing over the marine zones Thursday and likely persisting through Friday night. /CAB/

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Still anticipating a relatively large gradient in relative humidity across the area today with northern and especially northeastern areas of the outlook area forecast to see minimum values of 25 to 35 percent while coastal LA areas generally bottom out in the 35 to 45 percent range. Minimum relative humidities will increase Wednesday before drier air moves back in behind another cold front late this weekend and through the weekend. Rain chances remain low for at least the next week. As for fire weather concerns ht greatest benefit is winds will be very light today and Wednesday. However, KBDI values remain between 600-700 for the entire area and the combination of lower RH values and dry fuels could still lead to elevated fire weather concerns today. Hazardous fire weather conditions could develop once again Friday and Saturday behind the next front. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.