textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Slightly drier air will continue to move into the area tonight and will remain in place through the first half of the work week, resulting in relief from last week's oppressive heat and a general lack of showers and thunderstorms.

- Moisture will return to the area during the second half of the work week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop each afternoon. Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain below hazardous levels.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

As expected the "cold" front is now located near the coast and slightly drier air is filtering into the local area from the north/northwest with about a 10 degree gradient in dewpoints across the region as of 11am. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in coastal areas will continue to push into the Gulf as the surface front slowly sinks southward through the remainder of the afternoon.

The diffuse boundary will remain in place or drift back northward across the northern Gulf through midweek. However, with dry air through the mid and upper levels, precipitable water will be well below normal for this time of year, which should keep most rain chances low. Will mostly carry silent 10 POPs through Wednesday, with slightly higher chances in areas near the coast Tues/Wed where sea breeze boundaries could provide more of a focus for isolated showers/storms.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal with lows in the 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s. The drier air should help keep afternoon maximum heat index values below advisory criteria, though a few places could peak near or just above 105 degrees each day.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Going into the latter part of the week, surface and low level winds will become more established from the south/southeast as high pressure shifts and the local area ends up on the western periphery of the high. These onshore winds will bring deeper Gulf moisture back into the area with precipitable water values nearing normal levels by Thursday/Friday and possibly slightly above normal by Saturday. The increased moisture should lead to gradually increasing rain chances across the area with isolated to scattered showers and storms Thursday and Friday afternoons and generally scattered showers and storms Saturday afternoon.

As moisture increases, daily maximum heat index values will also gradually increase. However, the current forecast keeps peak values just below advisory criteria, generally topping out in the 103-106 range each day. Warmer than normal ambient temperatures will return with overnight lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s and afternoon highs in the mid 90s.

Still some minor potential for tropical moisture moving through the northern Gulf to affect the area some time during the Friday/Saturday time frame, but this is looking less likely with he previously bullish operational GFS now keeping the bulk of the moisture offshore. It has come more in line with its ensemble mean, indicating near normal moisture content across the area instead of significantly higher than normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period at most terminals. There is some potential for a few hours of light fog around daybreak, mainly in the vicinity of KHUM where heavier rain fell this morning and low level moisture could become trapped near the surface. Otherwise, minimal aviation impacts with light winds expected.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Winds will continue to gradually ease as the pressure gradient relaxes across the coastal waters. Scattered showers and storms will linger across the open waters through early Monday morning, becoming much more isolated through the first part of the work week. Wind direction will generally remain westerly with some variation between west-northwest an west-southwest through Tuesday. By Wednesday the high pressure axis will shift, placing the local waters on the western periphery of the high and resulting in more south to southeasterly winds through the end of the week. Rain chances will gradually increase again as deeper moisture returns to the area Thursday through Saturday. Seas should settle into the 1 to 2 foot range by late Monday, persisting through at least Thursday, with a slight increase across the outer waters late in the work week.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.