textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1006 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 - Another cold night tonight expected, with lows in the mid to upper 20's for the I-10/12 corridor on north. Freezing temperatures extend south into the southern parts of the Atchafalaya Basin.

- Will monitor fog potential building back to the region mainly Wednesday and Thursday morning. Confidence in coverage/density remains low for now.

- Next light rain chances return on Wednesday, but could see greater coverage on Thursday with the next front. No arctic air or freezing temperatures expected behind this front, while looking warm this upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1006 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Kept in the previous shifts thinking with dropping the overnight low temperatures tonight as the NBM does seem to be running a little on the high side. With the high pressure built into the region, light winds expected, and clear skies we should have no issues seeing radiational cooling. Knowing this did similarly to the previous shift and ran the 75th percentile across the area and also dropped the drainages a couple extras degrees. Tuesday we will start to see the area warm back up, with afternoon highs in the low 60s. Wednesday already back up into the mid to upper 60s for highs.

Will need to monitor the potential for fog heading into Wednesday morning as winds turn back southerly later in the day Tuesday which will help us see some moisture return. Some models are already starting to hint at this potential and even more so Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

In terms of precipitation we see a chance of light rain, mostly for the MS coast and coastal LA, Wednesday afternoon as a mid- level disturbance moves through. chances currently only about 20-30% along the coast and barely 20% elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1006 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Heading into Thursday, we will need to watch closely for that potential for dense fog as several models are already showing this. Outside of the fog potential, we also see a quick moving shortwave roll across the Plains and Upper Midwest on Thursday. A frontal boundary associated with this system looks to slide across our area. This brings our best rain chances of the period, with a good chunk of the area seeing 50-60%. Additionally, this front does look to drop temperatures once again, just not to the extent that we saw the last couple days. The current forecasted lows for that period are in the low to upper 40s across the area, a good 15 degrees warmer than we saw with our most recent front.

Looking past the end of this week, after the frontal boundary passes through we will quickly dry out for the remainder of the period. In the upper levels we end up in a mostly zonal flow pattern, while at the surface we see a decent high pressure system start to build in. This helps warm temperatures into the low, to even upper, 70s by the weekend. Won't touch on the holiday forecast too much just yet, but just peeking at long range models if you are hoping for warm temperatures you likely will get your wish unless we see a drastic pattern change.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through the forecast period. Winds remain light and turn easterly through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1006 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Winds will continue to lower/subside tonight as high pressure begins to settle into the region. Winds return to onshore from the SE on Tuesday but remain light. Next frontal passage arrives Thursday with shower and a few storms possible. Winds shift to offshore from the north Friday into Saturday potentially reaching Exercise Caution headlines in this time range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 27 58 42 65 / 0 0 0 20 BTR 27 60 46 68 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 25 60 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 37 63 51 67 / 0 0 0 20 GPT 28 60 44 65 / 0 0 0 20 PQL 25 60 41 67 / 0 0 0 10

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.