textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1145 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

- A weak cold front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the area late Thursday into Friday. Despite relatively high rain chances, rain totals are generally forecast to be around or less than one quarter inch, which will do little to ease ongoing drought conditions.

- Moderate to strong winds across the coastal waters will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft through tonight. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

With high pressure located over the Florida peninsula, onshore flow will continue to bring warm and humid air into the region from the Gulf. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid 70s today and mid to upper 70s tomorrow, which is 7-12 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Morning lows will be similarly anomalous, only dropping into the low to mid 60s most places.

By late Thursday a fast-moving shortwave disturbance rounding the base of the overall eastern CONUS trough will force a weak cold front into the Gulf south, accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. With the highest rain chances occuring overnight and the preferred area of dynamically forced lift moving away from the local area by the time the front arrives, the overall setup doesn't look too concerning from a severe weather standpoint. Additionally, the fast-moving nature of the parent disturbance will limit the heavy rain threat. In fact, despite the high rain chances, overall rainfall totals are forecast to be near or less than one quarter inch in most places. Unfortunately, this will do little to ease ongoing drought conditions or help with any continuing wildfires.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

As the front moves farther into the Gulf a drier high pressure will once again move into the local area. The drier air will allow for better overnight cooling, but even with a bit more cooling the overnight lows will remain several degrees warmer than normal, bottoming out in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area Saturday and Sunday mornings. Afternoon highs won't cool much, and may actually warm a degree or two behind the front as a result of less cloud cover and thus stronger solar radiation. Expect to see much of the area flirting with or even rising above 80 degrees each afternoon.

The slightly cooler mornings won't last long as winds return to a more easterly and then southeasterly direction by late Sunday in response to the transient high pressure shifting eastward once again. This will mark the onset of return flow with more humid air moving back into the area. Another front could approach the area Tuesday, but being nearly a full week out and a fairly weak system, the specific details are currently murky at best. For now, the various ensemble consensus tools suggest the main boundary will remain just north of the local area, keeping any appreciable rain chances to the north as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty winds this afternoon will ease around or shortly after sunset, but should remain strong enough overnight to keep fog from forming. Only real concern would be for any terminals downwind of wildfires where settling smoke may result in temporary restrictions as smoke settles closer to the surface overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1145 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Florida Peninsula, keeping persistent moderate to strong onshore flow over the local coastal waters through tonight. As a front approaches the area late Thursday, the wind field should relax some as the gradient weakens in response to the high shifting farther eastward. The next front swings through the coastal waters Friday morning accompanied by scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and resulting in a wind shift to an offshore direction. Winds are currently forecast to remain below headline criteria following this front. High pressure will move quickly eastward over the weekend with winds becoming easterly again by Sunday and southeasterly as early as Sunday night.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ550-552-570- 572.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ552-570-572.