textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Humidity levels have moderated, but breezy conditions could still produce rapid fire growth during the daytime hours.

- Next rain chances arrive with the next frontal boundary late Thursday into Friday. Rain totals of 0.25-0.75" expected, with better confidence for locally higher-end totals east of I-55.

- Temperatures will be much above normal for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

- Small Craft Advisories and Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will be necessary through at least Thursday, as winds increase to the 15 to 25 knot range, with seas as high as 7 feet possible over the southwestern marine zones.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Strong northern stream troughs were noted over the Canadian Maritime Provinces and over the western Great Lakes this evening. Ridging was over the Intermountain West with another trough off the Washington/Oregon coasts. At the surface, high pressure was centered near Tampa. Low pressure near Lake Superior had a frontal boundary southwest into Colorado. Only some high clouds were noted across the area. Winds have become southerly, which is slowly bringing moisture back to the area, with dew points currently running about 15 to 20 degrees higher than the same time 24 hours ago. Late evening temperatures were in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Wildfires continued to be a concern during the day Tuesday with quite a few smoke plumes noted on radar. We're no longer seeing those plumes this evening, which means that smoke isn't being lofted high enough to be detected on radar. That doesn't necessarily mean the fires are out, though, so we'll have to remain vigilant for areas of reduced visibilities that will restrict travel.

The shortwave near Lake Superior won't have any significant impact on the local weather as it moves toward New England. The shortwave off the Washington/Oregon coast will move inland Wednesday morning, before sliding southeast toward the area Thursday and Thursday night, reaching northern Louisiana by sunrise Friday. Precipitable water values that were near 0.25 inches this evening will increase to about 1.3 inches Thursday night. There's some instability available, but shear currently appears to be lacking, so not excited about severe weather threat at this point, especially with the frontal passage expected to occur during the overnight hours into Friday morning. Any rainfall would be helpful at this point, but rain amounts likely to remain below 1 inch.

With moisture levels increasing, temperatures may not fall very far from where they are currently. Wednesday highs should roughly be 10 degrees higher than Tuesday, and perhaps a few degrees higher on Thursday, depending on cloud cover. Overnight lows are likely to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s tomorrow night and Thursday night. It will be breezy during the day on Wednesday, which is concerning, if we continue to have wildfires. However, relative humidity values are expected to be in the 50 to 60 percent range, considerably higher than the past couple days, which keeps us out of Red Flag criteria. But most burning should be discouraged until fuels moisten up some.

Not seeing a strong signal for fog in the next day or two yet, which is a good thing, considering all the fires that we've had the last few days. Until the fires get extinguished by rain or fire fighters, any fog that develops near a fire will have the potential for super fog development.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

The frontal boundary will be moving offshore Friday morning, and we could still see some showers at that point. The airmass in the wake of the front is of Pacific origin, so no cooloff is anticipated. In fact, Friday's highs could be a couple degrees warmer than Thursday's. Some disagreement about how much, if any, drying as measured by dew points actually occurs over the weekend. Weak ridging is expected to build across the Gulf over the weekend into early next week, with little, if any, rainfall from Friday afternoon through Tuesday. Highs are likely to average at least 10 degrees above normal with many areas reaching 80 degrees or a little warmer on multiple days. Lows over the weekend will mainly be in the 50s, and closer to 60 early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR cigs will be slowly replaced with MVFR cigs today with sunset having most terminals within MVFR cigs. Vis should be in VFR for most of this taf cycle with a few terminals possibly falling into MVFR or IFR by sunrise Thursday morning, especially if downwind of any smoke.

MARINE

Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Winds have increased over the western waters, and should approach 20 knots over the coastal zones west of the MS Delta, and will increase to near 15 knots in the tidal lakes/sounds and surrounding zones in the next few hours. Small Craft Advisory for the western waters west of the MS delta, and exercise caution surrounding for most of the remaining waters. Have extended these headlines through Wednesday night for now. Will mention that a persistent fetch leads to seas increasing to the 4-6 foot range for most waters, potentially reaching 7 feet or more by Thursday in the southwestern waters before winds relax somewhat. The next front swings through the area mainly early Friday, providing a wind shift to offshore but remains mainly below advisory criteria. Showers and a few gusty thunderstorms could accompany this front as it swings through early Friday, then dries out going into the weekend.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ550-552-570- 572.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ552-570-572.