textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- A warming trend will bring the area back to the mid 80s for highs by the end of the week and a chance at the low 90s early next week.

- The threat for showers and strong thunderstorms will increase going into the weekend as moisture increases.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Hight temps will slowly move toward the mid 80s by the end of the week. This will help with destabilizing the sfc enough to get some diurnal activity started as we approach the end of this week. The weak sfc trough from the gulf then inland just to our west will also help by allowing the environment to not need so much forcing to get things going. This should start to occur today over the western most portion of the area. A sfc low over NE TX will pivot SEward before stalling but allowing plenty of sh/ts to develop along the frontal boundary to its east. This complex will propagate SE staying together by forcing from outflows and plenty of moisture. These could make their way into the norther portion of the area by Fri bringing us a chance of some moderate to heavy rainfall and a marginal risk of severe storms late Fri afternoon into the evening. A weakness will then stall along the gulf coast from Mobile to New Orleans then up to Baton Rouge into Alexadria. This will help activity get started for Sat, but it may take a bit of heating to get most of this started, which shouldn't be a problem over the weekend. Sunday will show this weakness being forced northward causing our precip numbers to fall back to where they have been lately. But this won't last long as a front will make its way closer to the area.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The upper level flow through the long term period will remain more zonal or progressive across the CWFA as we will remain on the northern periphery of an H5 ridge over the Bay of Campeche. The higher heights, thicknesses, and gradually stronger sun angle along with a warm moist onshore flow will continue to suggest well above average temperatures with interior sections warming into the 90s most afternoons. As for rain, with the rich low level flow cannot rule out some convection late afternoon along any mesoscale boundary that develops across the forecast area...be a sea breeze, outflow, or lake breeze. Within the zonal flow over the region, any cold frontal boundary will struggle to slide southward toward our region. This is great news for the midsouth as they will get multiple rounds of rainfall as a surface front stalls in their vicinity. For our region we appear again mostly dry outside of any isolated afternoon diurnally driven convection that could develop Monday through Wednesday. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions expected for most of this taf cycle. Some low cigs providing IFR to MVFR conditions are possible over and around MCB to BTR around sunrise Fri. The highest prob for TSRA will be around BTR and HUM today, so will try to time this in current pack.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

With high pressure now east of the coastal waters, wind have turned more southeasterly and are expected to turn southerly into the weekend. There will be little change in the surface pressure pattern through much of this week. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend, with some uncertainty whether it reaches the northern gulf waters. Whether or not it reaches the waters will play a role in how the winds react, but for now no marine hazards look likely.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.