textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- A warming trend will bring the area back to the mid 80s for highs by the end of the week and a chance at the low 90s early next week.

- The threat for showers and strong thunderstorms will increase going into the weekend as moisture increases.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Not a lot of change in forecast thinking. Surface high pressure has moved east of the area, turning our winds onshore. With these winds expected to remain on the lighter side, we won't see rapid moisture influx but we will definitely see some subtle moisture increase. This helps bring PoPs up, most notable Thursday afternoon as western areas see them peak in the 45-55% range. Many CAMs are hinting at a few stray showers or storms developing in that area. With decent instability sitting over those areas, wouldn't be surprised to see a decent updraft or two. Dew points are currently sitting in the upper 50s for the most part in our area while they are more so in the mid to upper 60s further west. These are likely the values we see tomorrow, especially in the Atchafalaya Basin, which is where I would expect to see convection fire tomorrow if we see any. Current radar shows a decent sized lake breeze moving west, if we see this again tomorrow it could serve as a lifting mechanism.

Friday also has a chance for isolated showers and storms, with PoPs ~30% for a good portion of our CWA. In terms of temperatures we will see a gradual warming trend over the next several days. Forecast to be in the low 80s today, but creeping into the mid 80s through the end of the week.

LONG TERM

(Friday Night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The long term forecast still has a good amount of uncertainty. While the overnight models wanted to dry the area out, this morning's runs brought back better rain and thunderstorms chances. A deepening low pressure system will be spinning up in the northern plains towards the end of this week. An associated cold front at the surface will drive across the central plains and into the lower MS valley region late Friday and into Saturday. Models have been a little all over the place with how it wants to handle the large area of convection ahead of this front. In some cases it shows a large complex of thunderstorms starting over the Central Plains and then wanting to dive more southward towards Louisiana. Models tend to not handle the cold pooling aspect of this and then die it out somewhere across central to northern LA. If we do see this complex of storms take that route it would not surprise me to see it cold pool out and make it all the way down into our area very early Saturday.

Depending on how Saturday play out would have a lot to do with how Sunday plays out. If we see remnant boundaries left over the area from a Saturday system, this could serve as a lifting mechanism causing us to see a good amount of scattered convection on Sunday. Hopefully we start to see more model consistency as this timeframe gets into the short term forecast. Heading into early next week, we see some very minor chances for rain but nothing substantial as of now. Temperatures on the other hand will continue to rise, with MaxT's reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s each day. This would be a good 10 degrees above climate normals for this time of year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

All terminals prevailing VFR this afternoon and this will hold through the day. Far northern areas, near MCB, may see some patchy fog early Thursday but this would burn off quickly after sunrise. Western terminals, mainly BTR and HUM, could see MVFR conditions tomorrow with scattered showers and storms possible.

MARINE

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

With high pressure now east of the coastal waters, wind have turned more southeasterly and are expected to turn southerly into the weekend. There will be little change in the surface pressure pattern through much of this week. A cold front will approach the area over the weekend, with some uncertainty whether it reaches the northern gulf waters. Whether or not it reaches the waters will play a role in how the winds react, but for now no marine hazards look likely.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.