textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions remain in place through the weekend. The rapid spread of wild fires is not substantial through today given the weak wind, however the current and worsening drought conditions and abundant fuels do not alleviate the fire weather concerns. Heading into the weekend winds are expected to increase and Fire Weather headlines may be needed. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued (SPSLIX) to cover this.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Monday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

There are no major changes in the latest forecast reasoning. Still looks like we could be waiting till next month for any appreciable rain and the short term portion of the forecast remains focused on temps and fire weather risks.

Mid lvl pattern hasn't changed, the ridge is still west of the area centered over the TX/Mexico border with the ridge axis stretching north just west of the MS River all the way into Canada. The ridge is rather large and amplified pretty much dominating much of the CONUS between the two continental divides. This ridge will continue to slowly slide east moving directly overhead Saturday and remaining centered over the Lower MS Valley through Sunday while a deep L/W trough digs along and just east of the Atlantic coast and all the way down into the western Caribbean. This along would basically squash any chance of rain through the weekend but with PWs generally remaining around 0.5" the chance of rain is just not going to happen.

At the sfc broad high pressure dominates the eastern CONUS and this sfc high will strengthen while it slides south becoming centered over the northeastern CONUS and then the DELMARVA region over the weekend. This will help push a weak backdoor cold front into the region tomorrow. This will cause LL temps to fall a degree or two but it will also send us recycled dry air and with the efficient mixing we have seen and likely see again dewpoints will likely drop into the upper 30s Saturday afternoon. Winds will will still remain on the lighter side over the inland areas where the lowest RH values will be.

Biggest deviation from the NBM is dropping dewpoints by using a blend of the NBM/NBM10/NBM25 today and then the NBM05/NBM10/NBM25 for Saturday. Highs actually don't look that bad some very minor tweaks made to that. The other change from the NBM are the morning lows Saturday and especially Sunday where we used a mix of the NBM/NBM25 and MOS.

All details concerning fire weather are in the fire weather portion of the discussion. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Thursday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The long term period beginning Sunday night into Monday morning and continuing into the new workweek has us firmly under an upper level high with ridging that extends into the upper midwest. As the period progresses the ridging transits eastward and by midweek we are on the upstream limb of the upper level flow, but still seeing more impacts and control from the more tropical flow, as opposed to northerly continental flow. This upper level pattern will be matched by a surface high over the mid-Atlantic seaboard. So, while the upper level flow may bring some moisture into the area, overall we are still looking at dry air at the surface driven by northeasterly winds. PWs in the column will be in the range of 0.5-0.75 inches. These values are statistically in the lowest quartile and nearing the driest 10% of all data. There is no rain in the 7 day forecast period and maybe even beyond that. October is typically our driest month, but this is a little ridiculous.

All this leads to continued discussion of Fire Weather risk. Minimum RH's for the period will be in the 30%s, at best, for the northern half of the CWA and 50%s for the south. The only consolation we have with respect to elevated fire threat is that winds will be minimal, less than 10mph. That said, we know there are burn bans in many of our parishes and counties and we expect continued discussion regarding Fire Weather headlines.

Beyond the continued dry-ness, we are looking at clear to mostly sunny skies, daytime highs around 80, and overnight lows dipping into the 50s. /DSS/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist at all terminals through the forecast period. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will continue to keep the region from seeing any significant moisture recovery and thus we will maintain mostly clear skies, with no significant ceiling or visibility restrictions anticipated. Surface winds will generally remain light through today. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Winds remain light and will continue to do so through today as broad high pressure dominates the region. However, that sfc high will build and become centered over the northeastern CONUS tomorrow and then the DELMARVA region Sunday while broad low pressure begins to deepen over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the northern Gulf with easterly winds picking up as early as overnight tonight across the open waters. These strong easterly winds will slowly build over the protected, near shore waters, and sounds. Winds will likely become sustained 15- 20kt with frequent higher gusts and with that there is now a Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters beginning tonight and then expanding to all waters except for lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas, and Salvador by late Saturday morning. These headlines will likely remain up through the weekend and possibly into next week. /CAB/

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Fire weather remains a concern today and through the weekend. The pattern really does not offer much help with dry northerly flow aloft and high pressure at the sfc keeping meaningful rainfall out of the forecast. Afternoon RH values fell to as low as the lower 20s to lower 30s yesterday and given the efficient mixing expected today expect similar RH values this afternoon with min RH values likely ranging from 20-25% across southwest MS and the adjacent Florida parishes. As has been discussed the last few days luckily 20ft winds will remain mostly below 10 mph through this afternoon, which will limit wind-driven spread. That said, the fuels are dry enough that we can still have problems without strong winds especially given the very efficient and prolonged daytime drying that has occurred the last few days.

The fuel indicators continue to support this concern. The October 21 ERC-based fire danger map still depicts Moderate to High conditions across all of southeast LA and southern MS. Recent KBDI values have commonly been in the 600-700 range across many inland locations, with some higher readings approaching or exceeding 750. The latest available Drought Monitor depicts D0 to D2 conditions across most of the area, with the more substantial D2 drought conditions across southwest MS and the northern Florida Parishes. Overnight RH recovery will provide some temporary improvement in fine fuel moisture, but will do little to reverse the accumulated dryness without rainfall.

The next thing to watch will be the tightening pressure gradient this weekend. Easterly winds will increase, especially across coastal MS and areas south of the tidal lakes. However, the strongest winds will remain closer to the LA coast which will coincide with higher RH. This makes the overlap of the stronger winds and lowest afternoon RH the main question. Any greater mixing or less moisture recovery than currently forecast would increase the concern along the coast. The current forecast does not explicitly support widespread critical conditions but we will need to watch things closely for possible fire weather headlines this weekend.

Burn bans are already in place and continue to expand across LA and MS. Latest additions to the burn ban is Pointe Coupee and St Tammany parishes. The Fire Danger Statement highlights the near- term concern, and outdoor burning should be avoided. Even where winds remain light, an escaped fire can still spread through the dry vegetation. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ551-553-554-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ534>536-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ553-554-570-572-575-577.