textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1133 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Severe weather increasingly likely Saturday evening into Sunday mid-day. Main threats will be damaging winds (60+mph) and lightning. An embedded tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Wind gusts may approach 30 mph late Saturday and into Sunday. - Dense fog again tonight into Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Through the morning hours we will continue to watch for potential dense fog across the region. No changes to the ongoing Dense Fog Advisories, which are in effect for all local landbased zones. It will take some time through the morning hours for the visibilities to improve, but eventually fog will lift and become more of a low status deal. Winds will begin to increase today ahead of the upcoming storm system due into the region late tonight and Sunday. A few isolated showers will be possible later this afternoon, but by far the highest POPs will come tonight as the surface feature moves toward our region with the parent trough pinching off into an ULL and following roughly the I20 corridor just north of our CWFA.

The storm impacts look about the same from the previous package. The latest mesoscale models (especially HRRR) show a slight uptick in the instability, but overall still rather lackluster with the highest instability early on when the expected QLCS enters our far western zones. This will likely be where the worst of the weather will be early Sunday morning as instability values drop further east in the CWFA. What isn't lackluster IN THE LEAST is the wind shear. A very robust H85 LLJ develops (generally 50-60 knots overnight). This signals a damaging wind element across the entire CWFA (again stronger instability west of I55, so the potential is highest there, but a conditional wind threat will reside for locations even east). Given the bulk shear vectors any local surges/bows in the QLCS at least E or NE oriented bowing segments may lead to a mesovort (tornado) potential embedded. Hodographs are supportive of supercells ahead of the main QLCS, however, as stated instability is weak. Despite the weak CAPE values, upper support may aid updraft strength for weak low topped supercells ahead of the line, but confidence is a bit on the low side in terms of supercell development and isolated tornado potential associated with the low topped convection.

The surface low and upper low become nearly stacked and move east from southern Mississippi into southern Alabama. Along the track there could be a few more showers and storms under a very cold upper level airmass with surface heating. This may lead to a small hail threat, but at this juncture it appears nearly all convection associated with this feature will remain north and east of our region. Strong pressure gradient will continue with gusty winds through Sunday Afternoon, but the pressure gradient quickly relaxes through the early evening. The strongest winds look to occur during the overnight and Sunday morning hours and for now appear to be below advisory thresholds at least non-convective winds. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 1133 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The long term can mostly be characterized by temperatures and more specifically a gradual warming trend with well above average temperatures by the end of the period. To start, the region will remain in a dry northwest flow aloft on the western periphery of the departing upper level short wave from the short term period. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures, but not by much. There is still going to be surface heating during the day and overnight will be rather "mild" if you will with most of the region remaining in the 50s. We will not drop much because the origin of the airmass behind the system is more Pacific in nature so there will be a disconnect with the northern stream to keep things mild.

H5 ridging is the rule going into midweek. The higher heights will again keep temperatures warming each day as we go deeper into the medium range. Surface high pressure will move east across the region early week and eventually over northern Florida by Wednesday. This will initiate an onshore flow...and then with the increase in temperatures and eventually moisture, sea fog and advective landbased fog will be possible again mid to late week.

The flow becomes somewhat zonal as the upper level ridge flattens over the Gulf. With a moderate onshore flow, low status may also develop during the day along with the strong warm/moist advection, cannot rule out some streamer showers in the rich return flow. Covered this potential late in the period of low-end POPs. Locations east of the tidal lakes will again approach and exceed 80F for daytime max temps mid to late week next week. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

More low CIGs and dense fog leading to reduced visibilities into mid to late morning. Again, IFR or lower can be anticipated for most terminals. Improvement will be slow to occur Saturday morning, but slowly but surely VFR will be realized in time. Winds will also begin to increase with some gusts as high as 25 to 30 knots during the late afternoon and early evening. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1133 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Dense fog will continue to be the primary concern in the coastal waters this morning as light southerly flow persists. However, an approaching low pressure system will allow the onshore flow to increase dramatically throughout the day Saturday and winds will exceed 20 knots by the late evening hours. These strong winds will continue into Sunday evening before finally easing as high pressure settles over the region. As these stronger winds persist, seas will build to over 7 feet and turn rough resulting in hazardous conditions to smaller craft. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday evening. The remainder of next week will see lighter winds and calmer seas return as a broad surface high pressure system dominates the Gulf. (PG/Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572- 575-577.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577.