textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 500 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Rough marine conditions will persist through today. Inexperienced mariners and those operating small craft should avoid navigating in rough conditions.

- Sunny skies and warm temperatures are on tap at least through the next several days. With a lot of outside activities like sports and festivals, sun and temperature related health risks are present. Make sure you are using sunscreen and drinking enough water.

- Potential exists for development of dense fog toward sunrise this morning.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Temps would have to get down to 52F to reach the dense fog point this morning. 55F is the fog production point this morning. We should at least see some haziness this morning but dense fog will be hard to get since the temp will need to fall almost 10F which could occur in a few locations like the Pearl River region. If fog can't form due to sfc temps, then this strat deck could come in as a low level canopy right at sunrise. This is one of the hardest things in fog forecasting, whether a strat deck comes in at the sfc or at 200ft since they both mirror each other in boundary layer thermal and kinematic structure. We will continue to resolve the fog issue each morning, although Monday morning looks like the lower chance of fog production of the next several days. The bigger picture is basic, relatively no rain and remaining breezy and warm but not crazy hot. But if you like crazy hot, I hear August is not that far away.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday Night through Saturday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

An upper ridge is expected to extend from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward to the Carolina Coast on Wednesday night. By Saturday, the ridge will have a bit more of an east-west orientation, from the Bay of Campeche to the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, high pressure will continue to stretch from near Bermuda to the north central Gulf Coast for most or all of the long term period. A shortwave moving out of the Rockies through the Plains States next Saturday could push a cold front into Louisiana and Mississippi by late next weekend, Saturday night or Sunday, with at least some minor chance of precipitation across northwest sections of the area. At this point, we're probably only talking about a 20 PoP.

Well above normal temperatures (5-10F above) will continue with highs mainly in the 80s, although the immediate coast might fall a degree or two short depending on timing of the daily sea breeze. Not out of the question that somewhere in our CWA a location reaches 90 degrees next week, which would be early, but not record-breaking unless it is McComb. Most likely days would be Thursday through Saturday. The average first 90 degree day at our climate sites occurs in mid-May. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s. (RW)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A few terminals are begining to see FG moving, mainly ASD but a few other sites could be impacted right at sunrise. This could come in as a low deck for other sites, either of which will cause IFR or LIFR conditions. Both of these will lift/dissipate by mid morning bringing VFR for most if not all of this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Strong surface high pressure from the northeast gulf into the Atlantic continues to produce a moderate easterly to southeasterly fetch over the northern Gulf. Rough marine conditions with winds at 15+ kt will remain through today. Conditions will improve slightly into the new work week as winds become mainly southeasterly and ease to around 10kt. These conditions will then continue through the long- term forecast period.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.