textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Dry air combined with ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns across northern portions of the area Thursday through Sunday. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

- A strong cold front will move through the area late this week bringing potential for frost to some northern areas Saturday and Sunday mornings.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Biggest challenge in the short term actually has to do with potential for fog development tonight. A band of steady light rain this morning resulted in accumulations of around a quarter inch roughly along the I-10/12 corridors. Afternoon temperatures heating up into the mid to upper 70s in many places this afternoon will promote evaporation of this moisture, leading to localized higher dewpoints in the low to even mid 60s. Additionally, an approaching cold front will promote calming winds overnight along with some moisture pooling ahead of the front. These factors are all favorable for the formation of fog. The biggest question will be the actual timing of tonight's cold front and its associated wind and drier air. Majority of guidance does not indicate fog development tonight, but also believe the guidance did not account for as much rain as there was in some areas. Believe there will be at least patchy light fog, but confidence in any denser or more widespread fog is very low at this time. That being said, will need to monitor observational trends closely this evening and overnight for any impacts.

Cold front should sweep through most of the area by daybreak Thursday, bringing cooler and drier air along with it. Afternoon highs Thursday will still rise into the low to mid 70s, but lows Thursday night into Friday morning will drop back into the low to mid 40s for most northern areas and upper 40s to mid 50s for southern areas.

Going into the weekend a reinforcing front will bring a quick shot of even colder air for Saturday. We're likely to see the coldest temperatures of the season so far for many areas, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s most northern areas and in the mid to upper 40s most southern areas. While the overall probability of freezing temperatures has decreased, there is still potential for frost across many northern areas Saturday morning, and those with agricultural interests should take heed.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The overall synoptic pattern at the H3 level is starting to take shape. We can see the east coast trough developing today while upstream there is another trough well off the west coast moving east. Between these two is a high beginning to amplify into the inner-mountain west. These major players will show us what is coming in the extended. By Sunday the trough currently well off the west coast will squeeze the high to its east causing it to sharpen over the southern half of the country as it moves east. This will produce a sfc low near the NW gulf by Sat night and send it east Sunday. The trough and sfc low weaken with time as another strong short wave drops down the west side of the large eastern CONUS trough developing another stronger sfc low that moves through the southern states Monday. We will have to see how these two sfc lows interact as the first will be moving slower as it weakens which lends to the potential for phasing. The energy that all of this is keying on has left eastern Asia and is now over the Pacific in a linear format. The semi-aggrement that the global models had while this jet was being sampled over Japan is now showing very little agreement. This will continue until the jet is sampled again around Fri 12z. The east coast trough does not budge this whole time until after this short wave kicks out Tue. The first part of next week could be our first real measurement of rainfall that we have seen in a while.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A mid to high level cloud deck ranging near 10k feet will gradually shift south and east of the terminals tonight into tomorrow morning. This cloud deck will have no impact on aviation operations as prevailing VFR conditions persist. Light winds of less than 10 knots will shift from the west-southwest to the northwest and north during the day tomorrow as a weak front slips through the area.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Light and variable winds today will give way to moderate northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots Thursday as a cold front approaches and moves through the area. As high pressure builds into the area behind the cold Thursday night, winds will strengthen further leading to potentially hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds will remain near or above exercise caution criteria through the weekend, with small craft advisories possibly needed at times. A coastal low will affect the waters late Sunday into Monday bringing potential for significant marine impacts to the coastal waters. However, these impacts will greatly depend on the specific track of the low. The current forecast calls for high-end small craft advisory conditions to set in late Sunday night into Monday, with winds in the 20-30kt range accompanied by higher gusts and seas of 6 to 10 ft across the open Gulf waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.