textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect for Tuesday morning as wind chill temperatures will be between 15-24 degrees for most locations north of I10/12 including the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Additionally, a Cold Weather Advisory is also in effect for much of the Mississippi Gulf Coast and southeast St. Tammany Parish Wednesday morning as well as wind chill values drop to around 20 to 25 degrees.

- Freeze Warning in now effect for areas west of New Orleans for potential of sub-freezing temps Tues night into Wed Morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Northwesterly winds have decreased north of the I10/12 corridor. Southshore still remains a bit gusty overnight. This is important because the increased winds over the southern half of the CWFA will not allow for much radiational cooling. Additionally, over the region and upstream high cirrus continues to stream into the region, which again may limit how cold we get tonight. Although it appears much of the clouds will clear overnight, if we do hang onto the cloudiness low temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees warmer. Continued the Cold Weather Adv along and north of I10/12 tonight based on the forecast lows and surface winds.

Any residual cloudiness will dissipate and surface winds will continue to decrease as high pressure moves into the region. Temperatures will remain below average across the area with most of us remaining in the upper 40s or lower 50s. Going into tonight, mostly light winds and clear skies. Upgraded the Freeze warning for the mostly the River Parishes west of New Orleans as temperatures will range from 30-33. MAV guidance also suggest MSY could drop to 33F, so the freezing mark is not far away from the city. Additionally, for the immediate MS Gulf Coast and SE St. Tammany Parish wind chills Wednesday morning are forecast to range 20-25F respectively...so needed another Cold Wx Adv. By Wednesday, slightly warmer conditions, but still a few degrees below average with most locations only warming to the upper 50s. Otherwise, mostly benign weather to round out the short term period. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

To start the long term, dry northwesterly flow will reside over the region as we remain on the eastern periphery of a very broad low amplified ridge over northern portions of Mexico and into west Texas. Gradually, upper heights will increase and the upper level flow becomes more progressive into Friday as the upper level ridge begins to flatten. An H5 impulse will help develop a weak surface low somewhere over north Texas and southern portions of Oklahoma early Friday. Within this progressive flow, the impulse will slide eastward along with the surface low. This will allow for some weak moisture return going into Friday afternoon and into the night. A weak cold front will slide southeast toward the region and likely produce some scattered showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder with some elevated convection. This feature quickly slides out of the region early Saturday allowing for upper level ridging to nose back into the region early next week. The long term in terms of temperatures will likely stay above average as the airmass behind the weak front later this week the airmass is more Pacific in nature and only may cool off overnight lows just slightly this weekend. (Frye)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Winds will continue to ease today albeit slowly. VFR will remain thorugh this taf cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Small Craft Advisories continue for the tidal lakes and Gulf waters through midday. Winds will decrease slightly, however, cautionary headlines will still be required this afternoon and well into the evening hours. Conditions improve by midweek as high pressure begins to build into the region by Wednesday. The next system that could elevate winds and seas will be due into the region late Friday or Saturday with at least some need for cautionary headlines Friday and Saturday. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 47 28 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 49 29 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 50 28 58 37 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 51 36 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 50 30 58 39 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 50 26 58 35 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-047-048-071-076-079>084.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ056>060-065.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ076.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ068>071- 077-083>088.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ084>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.