textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 146 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

- River flooding in Pearl River Co and MS Coastal Basins will be main impacts from heavy rain this evening.

- A slightly drier pattern going into the upcoming weekend, however, isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will remain possible. With rain chances a bit lower, temperatures later this weekend will climb close to or exceed 90 degrees with heat indicies approaching 100.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A very amplified upper level flow pattern is in place across the country with troughs on the West and East coasts and a ridge between them on the east side of the Mississippi River Valley. A shortwave trough embedded within the eastern side of the West Coast one is currently tracking into the ridge and slowly weakening. Regardless, deep layer moisture has been drawn northward from and mid level flow as this feature moved SW to NE across TX and AR. PW on this morning's KLIX sounding was 2.28" which is quite impressive for even late may. This did result in quite heavy rainfall over Pearl River Co and northern portions of coastal MS counties. The good news is radar trends over the last few hours indicates that the heaviest rain has now shifted northward. While there may be some redevelopment closer to the trough across Baton Rouge Metro and northwestward, coverage and rain rates should be much less intense there.

A decent pocket of drier air is forecast to follow in the wake of that shortwave and slide across the CWA Friday. It won't be enough to stop all convection but should be a noticeable decrease in rain and thunderstorm coverage as well as heavy rain threat.

MEFFER

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday night) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Finally a pattern change coming this weekend into early next week. As the shortwave nearby today dissipates, upper level high pressure will build in across the northern Gulf Coast. This will both drop POPs down to more typical scattered afternoon thunderstorm coverage as seen in early summer patterns as well as allow for temps to warm up. Should see highs in the mid to upper 90s. Combine that will dewpoints in the 70s to yield heat indices well into the mid 90s, possibly touching 100 degrees this weekend.

MEFFER

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, MVFR to VFR are the dominate conditions at terminals. Where showers and storms interact with local terminals, expect at least brief VIS/CIG reductions. Latest radar shows swath of rain northeast of a KMSY to KBTR line. Once that rain shield shifts north, meso models suggest the rest of the day will be pretty quiet from convective standpoint. Some light fog may develop near terminals that received rain today and bring VIS down into the 4-6sm range.

MEFFER

MARINE

Issued at 146 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A surface ridge will begin developing over the southeastern Gulf tomorrow. This will maintain onshore flow for local coastal waters. A deep upper level trough will dig southward across the Eastern Seaboard Sunday into Monday. This will shift that ridge westward and attempt to send a backdoor front to the coastal waters. Latest guidance suggests that the boundary stalls right as it reaches the MS sound due to the proximity of the trough axis in relation to the local area. Thus, expect wind field to weaken considerably next week due to weak pressure pattern in place. Daily showers and storms will be capable of producing locally hazardous winds and seas, with a few cells each day capable of producing winds in excess of 34 kts.

MEFFER

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.