textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1039 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

- A weak cold front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the area late today through tomorrow. Despite relatively high rain chances, rain totals are generally forecast to be around or less than one half inch, which will do little to ease ongoing drought conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday night) Issued at 1039 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

No significant changes in the forecast thinking. High pressure located over the Florida peninsula, will keep onshore flow in place today with temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid 70s today, with upper 70s possible in areas that see larger breaks in the clouds. Isolated light showers will continue through the early afternoon, becoming more scattered by late afternoon as a weak front approaches the area. The highest rain chances will be generally overnight as the front moves into and through the area, mainly after midnight.

The overall setup still doesn't look too concerning from a severe weather standpoint, but should see decent coverage of showers with some embedded thunderstorms as the front moves through. However, the fast-moving nature of the mid-level disturbance driving this front forward, not expecting a long residence time for the heavier showers/storms over any given area. Thus, despite the high rain chances, the overall rainfall totals are forecast to be near or less than one half inch, with most places likely seeing one quarter inch of rain or less. Unfortunately this will do little to ease ongoing drought conditions across the region.

By daybreak,the front should be located near the coast, where it will briefly stall before moving into the northern Gulf Friday night. That being said, expect at least isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms lingering across roughly the southern half of the area through the morning hours and even into the afternoon for areas nearest the coast.

Temperature-wise, warmer than normal temperatures will persist Friday, with morning lows generally in the low to mid 60s and afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1039 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

As the front moves farther into the Gulf a drier high pressure will once again move into the local area. The drier air will allow for better overnight cooling, but even with a bit more cooling the overnight lows will remain several degrees warmer than normal, bottoming out in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area Saturday and Sunday mornings. Afternoon highs won't cool much, and may actually warm a degree or two behind the front as a result of less cloud cover and thus stronger solar radiation. Expect to see much of the area flirting with or even rising above 80 degrees each afternoon.

The slightly cooler mornings won't last long as winds return to a more easterly and then southeasterly direction by late Sunday in response to the transient high pressure shifting eastward once again. This will mark the onset of return flow with more humid air moving back into the area. Another front could approach the area Tuesday, but being nearly a full week out and a fairly weak system, the specific details are currently murky at best. For now, the various ensemble consensus tools suggest the main boundary will remain just north of the local area, keeping any appreciable rain chances to the north as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Cigs will slowly lower from MVFR to IFR through the day and remain through much of the night hours, eventually becoming LIFR before daylight Fri. Vis will lower to MVFR with -SHRA that move over today and tonight. But vis should lower to IFR or lower especially near the coast by late tonight as some FG and BR begin to set in along with SHRA.

MARINE

Issued at 1039 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Outside of showers and a few thunderstorms associated with a cold front tonight through Friday, conditions will be generally benign across the coastal waters. The only other concern will be potential for fog to develop, mainly tonight, ahead of the front as high dewpoint air interacts with cool shelf waters. As the front moves into the northern Gulf late Friday, winds will become offshore, but should remain well below headline criteria. High pressure will move quickly eastward over the weekend with winds becoming easterly again by Sunday and southeasterly as early as Monday morning.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.