textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025 1. Another round of light to moderate rain expected mainly along the coastal areas will develop around 4 AM this morning and continue through much of the day Saturday. Light accumulations of less than 1" are expected. Additional light rainfall could occur with a final round of precip association with the frontal passage on Sunday where scattered showers could redevelop across more areas including more inland areas.

2. Another shot of colder air will come from a stronger cold front late on Sunday. Colder air from this front won't arrive until Monday so the coldest night of the forecast period will see temperatures near freezing in southwest MS and adjacent parishes on Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Shower activity continues to move off to the northeast, but this lull will not be for long before another round of shower activity builds to the southwest of the cwa and moves back overhead through the morning hours, especially along the coast. This will be kicked up by yet another weak shortwave following through the WSW upper flow that will push along the northern Gulf Coast through the day on Saturday. As this trough pushes beyond the area Saturday afternoon, shower activity will again taper off and allow for things to dry out and clear up some. However, the axis of the larger longwave trough keeping this WSW flow overhead still lags behind over the central Great Plains. The passage of this trough will help to push through a stronger frontal boundary later in the day on Sunday. Scattered shower activity could redevelop across the area from the slightly enhanced elevated instability and lift, but overall rainfall accumulations for the next 48 hours no more than 1" along the coast and even lower farther inland.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday night) Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Next week medium range models are in agreement initially. All indicate the L/W trough moving through and setting up across the eastern CONUS/Atlantic coast next week. There are some differences though in the amplitude of the pattern over the CONUS but that is more during the second half of the work week. With the models overall in fair enough agreement we will just stick with the latest NBM. The biggest possible Target of Opportunity looks to be Tuesday morning and that may be the only real deviation from the NBM.

L/W trough finally slides east of the Lower MS Valley Sunday night finally ushering a cold front completely through the area. Drier air will finally filter in with high pressure building in from the northwest. However the sfc high will not quite be over the area Monday night still trying to build to the southeast while the center of it will be well northeast of the area. The reason for that is that even though the L/W trough axis will be east of the area the pattern initially will be zonal aloft. A s/w coming out of the Pacific northwest will be diving down the backside of it moving through the Lower MS Valley Tuesday. That finally puts the region under northwest flow aloft. In addition we still may be tapped into the subtropical jet which could keep high clouds lingering over the area. All of this will have a negative impact on radiational cooling efficiency. The deterministic NBM is once again at the high end of the probabilities and is either right at or above the 90th percentile. This would typically make you question it and see if we would be colder however, the MOS products are actually warmer and given the not favorable radiational cooling set up I see no reason to adjust Tuesday morning lows at this time which range from right near freezing over southwest MS to lower/mid 40s over coastal SELA.

As for the rest of the forecast we will remain dry Monday through at least Thursday and possibly through the work week. Monday and Tuesday morning will be the coldest period in the current forecast with temperatures slowly beginning to moderate Tuesday. /CAB/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

IFR to LIFR CIGs are prevailing at most terminals with -SHRA temporarily moving out of terminals. Another round of -SHRA and stratus build down will keep most terminals firmly into IFR or even intermittently LIFR through the early morning hours on Saturday. SHRA will be most prevalent along the coast affecting HUM, MSY, NEW, ASD, and GPT more than BTR, MCB, and HDC. Beyond 1800 UTC, -SHRA will gradually clear out and CIG/VIS will begin to improve to MVFR or even VFR by the end of the forecast cycle. Some straggling light showers will remain into Sunday, but overall impacts will lessen through the weekend. Winds will remain light and generally out of the northeast through the forecast cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

As the stalled front drifts back to the north this morning, winds will be a little more variable but still light. Light shower activity and some reduction to visibilities will also occur through the day on Saturday. A stronger cold front will push through Sunday night with offshore winds of 15 to 20 knots developing. Small craft headlines will likely be needed for portions of the coastal waters overnight and into Monday. High pressure quickly builds back into the area Monday night into Tuesday and winds and seas will relax through midweek, becoming onshore by later in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 48 41 59 47 / 40 40 30 10 BTR 50 44 61 50 / 40 60 40 10 ASD 54 44 58 48 / 40 70 70 10 MSY 56 50 60 54 / 50 80 80 20 GPT 56 46 58 50 / 60 80 90 20 PQL 57 44 58 48 / 60 70 90 20

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.