textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Dry conditions are expected to persist. A cold front will reinforce the dry air on Thursday and bring significantly cooler weather to the area next weekend.

- The dry air and ongoing drought conditions will elevate fire spread concerns through Tuesday, and again at the end of the week. Residents in areas under burn bans should not conduct outdoor burning of any kind. Residents in areas without official burn bans should take extra precautions if burning outdoors.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Split upper flow continues this evening. A Northern stream shortwave trough was over the eastern Great Lakes and New England, followed by an upper ridge, then a second trough extending from Saskatchewan to off the Pacific Northwest coast. A southern stream trough was near El Paso. At the surface, high pressure extended from near Memphis to near Amarillo. The southern stream trough was pulling high level moisture from the Pacific northeastward into our area, with satellite imagery showing an extensive cirrus shield from the Florida Panhandle westward across much of Texas and northern Mexico.

The 09/00z soundings here and at JAN show essentially no moisture below 700 mb, with mid and low level RH values below 20 percent. Late evening temperatures were mainly in the 50s, except on the south shore of Lake Pontchartrain, where portions of New Orleans metro area were in the mid 60s.

The northern stream shortwave track is currently far enough north to not have a large impact over the area for at least the next 36 hours. The southern stream shortwave will eventually shear out to the east, transiting the local area Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Expect quite a bit of mid and high level cloud cover with this feature, but if any precipitation were to make it to the surface, it wouldn't amount to much. Currently a dry forecast.

Once the southern stream shortwave gets out of the way, a rather strong northern stream shortwave will move through the upper and mid Mississippi River Valley toward the Atlantic Coast Wednesday night. The associated cold front will drive through the local area late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, and be offshore by midday. It wouldn't be an absolute surprise to see a very narrow band of showers on the leading edge of the front, but the most likely scenario is a dry frontal passage, with potentially rapid clearing behind the front.

Cirrus clouds overnight likely will prevent temperatures from bottoming out as they did Sunday morning, with overnight lows remaining in the 40s and 50s in most areas. Those cirrus clouds may be the only thing that keeps high temperatures below 80 degrees in most of the area the next several afternoons. If they should thin out more than expected, we might have to bump highs up a couple degrees. Overnight lows may creep up a couple degrees each night, but we'll still be looking at diurnal temperature spreads of 30 degrees or so each day. The front moving through Wednesday night may have the coldest air lagging it by 6-12 hours, so will not be surprised to see the high temperatures on Thursday be observed during the morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The cold front will be well off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts by Thursday evening as the lead shortwave will be off the Atlantic Coast. A trailing shortwave will already be moving through the Ohio Valley at that time to reinforce the cold, dry air. Additional shortwaves will be diving through the northern stream into the base of the longwave trough at about 24 hour intervals through the weekend, with each tugging the longwave a little further east. By the end of the weekend, upper ridging should extend from the western Gulf to Minnesota.

Forecast soundings for next weekend indicate precipitable moisture values near or below the 10th percentile all weekend. A dry forecast will be carried. This will be the first real cold shot of weather for the area this fall, with Friday/Saturday temperatures likely to be the coldest since mid-March. Highs in the mid 60s Friday with breezy conditions will get some people's attention. Saturday probably won't be any warmer, but with less wind. Overnight lows those 2 mornings could drop into the 30s across about the northern half of the area, especially if winds decouple. If winds do decouple early Friday morning, that'll bring potential for a few patches of frost into play across sheltered areas, particularly in the Pearl and Pascagoula River basins, where lows in the mid 30s are possible. The better threat for frost will be Saturday morning, as winds are more likely to drop off to near calm. Is a freeze possible? A low probability. NBM 10th percentile MinT for Saturday morning has lows 30-33 north of a Baton Rouge-Slidell- Pascagoula line, with NBM probabilities of temperatures below 32 degrees maxing out around 30 percent in northern portions of our area.

Beyond next Sunday morning, a significant stretch of warm and dry weather is anticipated as high pressure at the surface will blanket most of the country from the Mississippi River Valley eastward.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period at all terminals. Satellite shows an extensive cirrus shield over the area that continues west into northern Mexico. Forecast soundings indicate this should continue. With no onshore flow and forecast soundings showing no significant moisture below 800 mb through tomorrow evening, would not expect much, if any, low cloud cover through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Generally benign conditions will persist through the middle of the week as the area remains under the southeast flank of surface high pressure. Hazardous conditions are likely to return Thursday or Thursday night as winds strengthen again behind a strong cold front. The expected passage of the front on Thursday is expected to bring at least Small Craft Advisory level conditions to most of the waters from Thursday night into Saturday.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.