textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 701 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- During the latter part of this week, a period of more active weather appears likely. While there is still significant uncertainty regarding the specifics, heavy rain could become a concern mainly Friday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Generally drier and cooler the next few days as high pressure slides to the west. Rain chances will be isolated to low through Wednesday, but overall conditions will be dry to start the workweek. Southerly winds will return to the surface pattern Tuesday and onward, which will help advect warm and moist air back into the region. Temperatures should remain quite pleasant with highs in the low 90s to upper 80s, dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s and heat index values in the mid 90s. MSW

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The ridging starts to slide east, so rain chances increase Thursday through the weekend with extra moisture moving into the area. Southerly surface winds will help to advect Gulf moisture and warm air into the region. PWs will be increasing Thursday through the weekend as well around 2+ inches, so rainfall should be quite efficient where it forms with 2-3 inches per hour rainfall rates. Generally, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected mainly Friday through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be a concern if the trend holds through the week, especially for Friday and Saturday. We are currently not seeing indications of severe weather potential, but strong storms will definitely be possible.

There is still a huge lack of model consensus regarding the weekend forecast and even between model runs. This will be highly dependent on the speed and placement of the trough as it develops this week and interacts with other features. Whereas yesterday, the bulk of the rainfall was converging over our area with deep tropical moisture in place, now the bulk of the rainfall is moreso to our east and along our easternmost areas. We will be monitoring closely for changes. MSW

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions with light, variable winds will prevail at all terminals through the forecast period. Dry conditions will suppress development of anything beyond few to scattered towering cu during the afternoon and high cirrus.

MARINE

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Winds over all coastal waters will remain light and sometimes variable through Monday. Winds will become predominantly SE by Tuesday at around 10 knots the rise further into mid next week to around 15 to 20 knots as a cold front approaches the coast.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.