textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1039 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Dangerous heat remains the primary concern today. Peak heat index values of 110 to 115 degrees remain possible, with limited overnight relief. Strong heating will remain for the western half of the area through the end of the week while increasing cloud cover and higher rain chances will lower heat index values to the east starting Thursday.

- A considerably wetter and somewhat cooler pattern is expected Friday through at least Monday. Repeated thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall, especially where storms train.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Ridging extending from the SW stacked high and the front to our north today will cause our wx for the remaining work week. Today, the ridge will continue to dominate, keeping heat index numbers well into the 100s. The front to the north extends from central Oklahoma to central Georgia this morning. This front will fold around the ridge extention causing the front to stall and orient itself from central Arkansas into coastal Miss by Thu. This will bring a NW flow through the eastern half of the area allowing for increased rain chances and more cloud cover helping to reduce the heat index values starting Thu, at least for the eastern half. This will continue into Fri as well. The ridge backs off over the weekend as another front approaches the area by late Sat. This front will stall somewhere along or just north of the coast helping to keep the environment unsettled with plenty of sh/ts around along with cloud cover and no crazy high heat index values. It's either heat or rain, but a good mix of the two helps break one from the other. And as usual for summer storms, any one of these could become strong/severe.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

The surface front and upper level weakness will remain over the region, which will again provide a focus for organized showers and thunderstorms through Sunday and into Sunday night. The upper level weakness begins to abandon the surface frontal boundary. This indicates gradually the upper level ridge will start to build in back to our north and that is, indeed, the GFS solution. However, ECM is a little slower and still shows the weakness fully involved in the mid and upper levels leading to a slightly wetter solution given the continues upper level trough and less upper level ridging building over the area. That said, GFS lower POPs and warmer. ECM higher POPs and cooler. Middle of the road split between the two globals for now. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR for most sites through this taf cycle. GPT will have the highest chance of TSRA out of all terminals late today but 20% coverage is not enough to show in current taf set.

MARINE

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

High pressure over the southeast gulf will keep a predominantly westerly to SW flow regime through the remainder of the week. There will be the usual diurnal increase in winds over the eastern waters where winds approach and sometimes slightly exceed 15 knots during the evening and part of the overnight hours before diminishing. A weak front will settle toward the northern gulf Thursday and remain nearby through the weekend, bringing increasing thunderstorm coverage. Seas will generally remain 1 to 3 feet nearshore and 2 to 4 feet offshore, although locally hazardous winds, waves, lightning, and reduced visibility will occur near stronger storms.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-046>048-056-071-090>097.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ057- 058-064-070-076>087-089-098>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>085.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.