textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Conditions will remain favorable for the spread of any fires through the remainder of this week due to low humidity and drought/abnormally dry conditions across most of the area. - Conditions will remain hazardous to small craft across most coastal waters in southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi due to moderate to strong winds and high waves/choppy to rough seas. Small craft advisories and/or exercise caution headlines will remain in place through at least Monday across most coastal waters.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

High pressure will remain in place centered northeast of the local area through midweek with dry weather persisting. As expected, morning lows this morning were below what was advertised in the operational NBM and with similar conditions tonight, have once again adjusted the forecast downward to be more in line with the colder MOS guidance than the operational NBM.

The combination of dry air, clear skies, and light to calm winds will provide optimal conditions for efficient radiative cooling, and temperatures should drop off rapidly as the sun sets. Temperatures are forecast to fall into upper 50s to low 60s by 9p most places and will continue to drop as the night progresses. Expect morning low temperatures tomorrow to be similar to what we saw this morning - in the mid to upper 40s across areas along/north of the I-10/12 corridor, and in the 50s across most southern locations.

Afternoon temperatures will gradually warm a few degrees each day through the first half of the work week, and should be solidly warmer than normal again by Wednesday. However, with moisture forecast to remain shunted southward, the dry airmass will continue to promote efficient overnight cooling with lows continuing to drop to near or below normal. This will result in large diurnal temperature ranges for our area, with some places seeing more than a 30 degree difference between the morning lows and afternoon highs.

A secondary effect of the warming afternoon temperatures is that minimum relative humidity during the afternoon hours will have a general downward trend through the week, with many places experiencing minimum daily relative humidity of near or below 35% by Wednesday (northern areas will see these values earlier in the week as well). While the low relative humidity makes for comfortable conditions for outdoor activities, it will also result in at least some fire danger - especially when combined with the ongoing drought/abnormally dry fuels across the region. The main limiting factor to any fire spread will be that winds are forecast to remain fairly light over land areas through the period.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

The second half of the work week won't see much change compared to the first half. Model forecasts and ensemble members remain in fairly good agreement that deep layer ridging will remain in place through at least the first half of the weekend, and this will keep things dry with near zero rain chances through the period.

Expect the gradual warming trend in temperatures to continue from earlier in the week, with some locations reaching the upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. While afternoon temperatures will be nearing 10 degrees warmer than normal, it doesn't currently look like any records will fall. Most of the daily maximum temperature records for October 21-25 are in the 89-91 degree range, and forecasts are generally 3+ degrees below the site- specific records.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period and beyond at all terminals. Winds could get into the 10 to 15 knot range again tomorrow, but not much higher than that.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Winds will continue to gradually ease with directions ranging from northeasterly to easterly through at least midweek. Wind speeds will remain elevated, so advisory and exercise caution headlines will remain necessary across most coastal waters through at least Monday. Across the open Gulf waters, winds and seas may remain elevated into midweek with additional headline extensions possible. By late in the week headlines conditions should become more benign with winds and seas easing below headline criteria across all waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ551-553-554.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ570-572-575- 577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ553-554.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ572-575-577.