textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- An Arctic high pressure system will bring temperatures to near or below freezing this morning across much of the area. A Freeze Warning has been issued for all of the outlook area with the exception of the immediate southshore of Lake Pontchartrain and the immediate SELA coast.

- Higher winds and seas will continue to cause hazardous conditions to small craft through the early morning. Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Gulf waters.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

The coldest morning of the season is here, but this should be the only morning with a large chunk of the CWFA experiencing freezing conditions as the surface high pressure starts to spread east of the region allowing for a warmer return flow to set up. Today will remain below average in terms of temperatures with most of the region only climbing into the upper 50s or lower 60s respectively. Overnight, winds will remain light, but overall with the upper flow pattern trying to take on a more progressive or zonal flow and a return flow eventually becoming established, overnight temperatures will likely be at least 10 degrees warmer across the region.

Going into Wednesday the warming trend will be more apparent with the region warming during the day about 10-15 degrees warmer than that on Tuesday as again the low level onshore flow continues to strengthen as high pressure continues to exit the region stage east. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Going into late week the warming trend is forecast to continue as an H5 ridge develops over the region and the onshore flow remains locked in over the area. As the low level flow gradually strengthens going into the weekend some light shower activity may be possible with the rich low level flow streaming into the region. Temperatures during the day will return to above average levels with mostly average overnight lows expected...maybe slightly above for a few. Eyes center upstream at a possible frontal boundary late in the weekend. The upper level flow pattern eventually evolves to an active southwesterly flow aloft. Globals are struggling a bit with how far and how quickly this front arrives into the region. Kept POPs on the lower end later this weekend and into the start of the new workweek next week given the lower confidence again in timing and placement of the system. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR through the cycle. Winds will will become light and variable tonight and early Tuesday, however, will begin to take on a more southerly direction later on in the cycle. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Starting off with Cautionary headlines for the tidal lakes and MS Sound as well as SCAs for the Gulf waters. High pressure is moving into the region, which will break down pressure gradient gradually through the morning and into the afternoon today. Mostly benign winds and seas through the rest of the workweek. However, onshore flow develops and strengthens by this upcoming weekend, which may require additional cautionary headlines by the end of the forecast period. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 49 28 57 42 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 53 30 61 45 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 54 27 58 43 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 56 39 62 50 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 54 31 57 45 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 54 26 57 40 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048- 056>060-065-071-076-079>086-088>090.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ530-532- 534.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ536-538-550- 552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-534.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ538-550-552- 555-557-570-572-575-577.