textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM CST Tuesday across south Mississippi and southeast Louisiana and 2 PM CST for marine areas. The potential for dense fog will continue the next several nights/mornings.

- Dry weather is expected until Wednesday, when a quick moving shortwave may bring some light rain chances.

- Severe weather possible Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the period.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Upper ridging over the western Gulf this evening, with a southern stream closed low over Baja California. Satellite imagery showing quite a bit of moisture getting pumped up and over the crest of the ridge. At the surface, high pressure covered most of the Gulf, with a frontal boundary well to the north of Interstate 40. Skies were mostly clear this evening with temperatures mainly mid 50s to lower 60s, although there has been some patchy fog develop over the last hour or two.

Main concern for the short term continues to be the potential for fog development the next few nights. The difference between last night and tonight is that we don't have much in the way of high clouds tonight. That should make fog development easier tonight, but high clouds could be a limiting factor again tomorrow night. We've already got a Dense Fog Advisory in place for tonight and see zero reason to mess with it.

The Baja upper low will open into a wave Tuesday and move across the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There may be a few showers accompany the wave on Wednesday, but most areas are expected to remain dry. May have to deal with fog again behind the system Wednesday night, but only if we can get rid of cloud cover, which is in question.

Temperatures are expected to continue to run roughly 10F above normal. The NBM deterministic highs the next couple days look to be near or a shade below the 50th percentile in the latest batch over the next 36-48 hours. The next couple of nights shouldn't be any cooler than the current overnight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Brief ridging will be across the area Thursday and Friday before a strong southern stream trough moves across the lower Mississippi River Valley Saturday night and Sunday. That system appears to have quite a bit more going for it than the one that crosses the area Wednesday. Moisture and shear are definitely sufficient for strong thunderstorm development, and the amount of instability in the forecast soundings currently appears sufficient as well. There's a significant amount of outdoor events going on next weekend, and timing of convection will be critical to whether those events are able to take place without interruption. Current medium range depictions of the weather indicate that daytime activities probably won't be significantly impacted, but Saturday evening ones could be. We're still 5 days out, so it is likely still too soon to limit the thunderstorm threat to a 3-6 hour window. It should also be noted that at least some model solutions for Saturday and Saturday night show enough of a pressure gradient that would produce rather breezy conditions across much of the area.

The good news is that the Saturday night system is really the only one of significant concern through Fat Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to continue well above normal into early next week, with longer range modeling indicating that trend continuing through the 8 to 14 day period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

All terminals were VFR up until about 15 minutes before forecast issuance, when fog started developing at KASD, with the visibility being rather variable, but primarily LIFR. Starting to see hints at other terminals and beyond the top of the hour, do expect ceilings and visibilities to deteriorate at other terminals. Likely to IFR by about 10z at most terminals, and periods of LIFR from that point through about 14z before beginning to improve. Should be back to VFR by midday. Another round of low ceilings/visibilities is likely near and beyond 06z Wednesday if high clouds don't interfere.

MARINE

Issued at 1124 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Onshore flow will likely be in place all week with high pressure centered generally east of the region. The threat of fog development will be relatively high the next couple days and again this upcoming weekend. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through early afternoon Tuesday, and day shift in the morning will reassess the need for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. There's already been some fog over cooler waters in the last hour or so, and no adjustments to the advisory appear necessary. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible Saturday into Sunday as an area of low pressure tracks from west to east across the Gulf Coast states, especially if some of the stronger members of ensembles verify.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557.