textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Warmer with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week. No severe storms expected, but heavy rain will be a concern. - Hazardous boating conditions for small craft will continue today. A Small Craft Advisory remains today for most waters along and east of the Miss River.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A surge of deeper moisture will continue to feed into the area through the short term period on the back of a deep layer southerly flow pattern. This southerly flow pattern will be driven by the region residing between a broad and deep ridge over the eastern Gulf and Florida and a weak trough of low pressure extending across the southern Plains and Texas. Warmer air will also feed into the region on the back of this sustained onshore flow and temperatures will run around 10 degrees above average through the period. Highs will easily warm into the low to mid 80s over inland areas and the upper 70s along the coast. Overnight, lows will only dip into the low to mid 60s due to the high dewpoints feeding into the region. Fortunately, a persistent wind of 5 to 10 mph will prohibit fog development from occurring. At most, each morning will start off overcast as a weak elevated inversion forms. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected by the afternoon hours.

Conditions will turn moderately unstable each afternoon with surface based CAPE values climbing to around 1500 to 2000 J/KG across the region. Weak forcing aloft associated with the trough axis over east Texas and western Louisiana will also provide enough lift to support some deeper updrafts and thunderstorm activity each day. Any storms will remain weak as shear values are minimal in the short term period. However, brief heavy downpours, wind gusts to 30 mph, and occasional lightning will be a concern with any storms that develop. Rain chances have been increased due to the more favorable conditions expected with PoP peaking at 50 percent on Monday and 70 percent on Tuesday. The higher PoP on Tuesday is reflective of the increased upper level forcing from the weak trough moving into the region. All of the convection will be highly diurnal with activity peaking in the afternoon hours and dissipating quickly after sunset.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Wednesday will see very similar conditions to Tuesday as the weak trough to the west of the region continues to induce just enough upper level forcing to support deeper and more sustained updraft development. Temperatures will remain a good 10 degrees above average and PWATS will still be near the 75th percentile for this time of year. The one change will be slightly lower instability with SBCAPE only peaking around 1000 J/KG on Wednesday. However, numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will still be able to develop in the very warm and moist environment.

Thursday through Saturday will see the threat of heavy rainfall and some localized street flooding issues increase as a plume of tropical moisture feeds into the region from the southern Gulf and Caribbean. PWATS will rise to between 90th percentile and daily max values for early April with values between 1.5 and 1.8 inches expected over the region. Temperatures will also continue run 10 degrees above average. Sounding profiles are moist adiabatic each day and mid-level lapse rates steepen as the trough to the west slowly pushes through the region at the end of the week. This will allow SBCAPE values to increase to 1500 to 2000 J/KG from late morning through the afternoon hours each day. The end result will be continued periods of shower and thunderstorm development through the end of the week. Overnight convection will also be a concern as the trough will continue to provide enough mid to upper level lift to overcome a stable layer near the surface. With decent mid- level lapse rates of 6 C/KM in place, most unstable CAPE values will remain between 1000 and 1500 J/KG each night. There should be periods of elevated showers and storms that continue to develop through the night, so the heavy rain and localized flooding threat will be a concern even during the overnight hours. Rain chances reflect this increased risk with likely PoP in place for Thursday and Friday. Slightly lower PoP is in the official forecast for Saturday, but an increase to likely PoP has a good chance of occurring with future forecast updates. Overall, a much more unsettled weather pattern will be in place throughout the entire week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions (ceilings) at forecast issuance time, with isolated showers moving north-northwest across the western terminals. Expect build-down of ceilings overnight, with most likely to get into the upper end of the IFR category after 05z, if not sooner. Improvement back to MVFR expected by mid to late morning Monday. will be carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA during the afternoon hours on Monday at all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Easterly winds will persist into the afternoon hours before easing back to exercise caution levels of 15 to 20 knots tonight. Seas will remain at 5 to 7 feet in the eastern waters due to these winds through tonight. From Monday through Wednesday, a persistent southeast wind of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will be the rule across the waters as a broad surface high over the Southeastern states dominates the region. The southeast winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots or exercise caution levels on Thursday as a low pressure system passes well north of the waters.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ532-534- 536-538-555-557-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ534-536- 538-555-557-575-577.