textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon. Any storms will be very slow moving and may generate enough rain to cause localized flooding in poorly drained and low lying areas.

- Heat index values will climb to around 105 each day, but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Convection was a little more isolated to widely scattered yesterday but that will likely change today as a weak tropical wave impact's the region. That wave at 6z was draped from the central Gulf to the far western portions of the FL panhandle and moving east. It will approach the coast later today and should lead to better coverage of convection than we saw yesterday. In fact we should see early morning convection begin to develop over the coastal waters which may approach the coast around sunrise in a few areas. This activity will push inland through the day and start to slowly dissipate after sunset very typical for Summer.

Convection will continue to be on the higher end Monday as this wave starts to stretch out WSW to ENE across the region. This creates an area of deeper moisture draped over the area leading to showers and thunderstorms on the scattered to possibly numerous in coverage but after Monday we will likely begin to see thunderstorm coverage start to taper off especially heading into the latter portions of the forecast but in the short term scattered storms are still in the mix. The reason for this is a mid lvl ridge centered east of FL and north of the Bahamas will start working east. This will be more of a dirty ridge and likely not completely shut down rain chances late in the forecast period but will knock the potential and coverage down a few notches. As that ridge shifts west and starts to build into the area Tuesday and Wednesday we will see increasing hghts and mid lvl temps which will begin to suppress convection slightly and with less convection and associated cloud cover we will begin to see temps rise with many locations in the mid 90s by Wednesday. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Stacked high to the west and Bermuda high to the east will be our extended focus. The Bermuda high to start the extended time frame will keep precip numbers in the normal category for August, but this will begin to slowly change. Looking at model solutions yesterday, there were some questions of ridge extension to the east from the stacked high over the SW CONUS. This looks like it will occur and a bit different than was previously advertised, which was the main inquiry. The TUTT low moving west this evening approaching the Bahamas will eventually move through the gulf then into the western gulf coast then start moving NW as the SW high gets displaced and moves to the east. This begins to occur by mid week. As the high moves east, our precip numbers will slowly lower getting close to zero by the end of the week. The high basically trades places with the TUTT low by Sat as the TUTT low will be found over west TX and the high will be found over northern MS/AL. This should all but alleviate precip chances and bring the thermostat upward with a few locations over the NW or western extent of the area getting uncomfortably close to that century mark. The gulf coast of TX will find sea brz development moving far inland while we will be stuck at the bottom side of the mid/upper high which means if we are to get any cooling from storms they would have to develop to our east and migrate westward on the bottom side of the high. This may actually occur by next weekend giving us higher precip numbers by Sunday or the first of the week after, but that is way too far out to peel the layers back at this point. /TE/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Convection has died off across the northern areas and all terminals remain in VFR status and will remain through the early morning hours. So far nothing is showing up on radar across the coastal waters but there will likely be a few storms to fire across the near shore waters between 10-13z and a few may be close enough to impact a few coastal terminals. Most likely location would be GPT but can't completely rule out a rogue storm developing over Lake Pontchartrain and possibly impacting MSY and NEW early. Otherwise we are looking at similar conditions we have seen the last 4-5 days with convection firing along the sea and lake breeze late morning and pushing inland through the day. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

As high pressure remains in place and centered east of the area we will continue to see winds around 5-10 kts varying between southerly and easterly with seas of 1 to 2 feet in place across all of the waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will fire up each day in the early morning hours before moving inland by the afternoon hours. These storms will produce lightning strikes, heavy downpours, a few waterspouts, and locally higher winds and waves. Overall, a very typical pattern will be in place for early August. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.