textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Scattered showers and a few storms have been drifting across the area today. One or two storms could become strong, producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and brief periods of heavy rainfall. These cells should die out late this afternoon into the evening hours.

- Widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms will affect the area Friday through Sunday. While specific rainfall totals are still uncertain, heavy rain and at least localized flash flooding will be a threat. Residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates regarding this threat.

- Larger than normal tide ranges and onshore flow will produce minor coastal flooding on southeast facing shore lines during the high tide cycle the next several nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Within the last hour, have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for most southeast facing shorelines for tonight's high tide cycle. Larger than normal tide ranges and 10 to 15 knots of onshore flow are likely to produce water levels around 1 foot above normally dry ground on those shorelines during the high tide cycle tonight. Also the potential for similar water levels the next few nights during the high tide cycle, but will hold off on issuing beyond tonight, as some concern winds may be lighter tomorrow night.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday night) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

I have good news and bad news. Through the weekend we should be seeing temperatures moderate and drop into the seasonable, early fall range. The bad news is that the temperature drop will be partly due to rain through Sunday night and maybe into Monday morning. I guess we can't win them all.

The current set up has us stuck between a low/trough over the southwestern plains and a high to our east. Regional winds are out of the southeast, circulating around the high, and bringing Gulf moisture into the area. As the front associated with the low/trough moves into the area it will carry tropical moisture currently associated with Pacific activity into the area. Between these two moisture sources we are going to see maximum and perhaps record values of PW for this time of year, on the order of 2.6 inches.

While we are certain of widespread rain Saturday and Sunday, I don't believe the weekend will be a total washout. The way the systems are moving, there will be lulls in the rain. However, we can't say when and where those lulls will occur. Likewise on the heavy side, there are likely to be periods and areas of heavier rain. So, while we are forecasting total average rain amounts between 3-5 inches there could be isolated areas of heavier rain with accumulations in the 6+ inch range. Generally speaking, the lower amounts will be in the northwest side of the area and the higher amounts to the east. The rainfall intensity is also an issue. With the lulls and surges, we could see instantaneous rates that are high enough to cause minor flash flooding. This flooding would be an impact in areas of slow drainage such as underpasses. Also, associated with any given storm there may be gusty winds and some lightning.

Along with the discussion of hazards, I should mention that conditions are not at all favorable for severe weather. Tornadoes, hail, and high winds are not on the table for the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Monday through Wednesday sees the front discussed in the short term discussion pushed into the Gulf and becoming mostly stationary and a shallow upper trough just to our north. This will set us up with just enough moisture and lift to give us around a 30% chance for afternoon rains. Daytime highs will be in the low 80s, but it will be very humid.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Currently VFR conditions at all terminals. There are a few -SHRA around, but no indications of any lightning in the CWA over the last 4 hours, and little or no lightning expected overnight. Any flight restrictions due to cloud cover overnight should be rather limited, but KMCB could see some visibility issues (MVFR).

With moisture levels increasing tomorrow, should see some SCT-BKN clouds with bases around FL025. Threat for TSRA should increase some by 17-18z tomorrow, with most terminals seeing at least brief flight restrictions during the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1050 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A tightening pressure gradient will keep southeast winds elevated at 10 to 15 knots through the afternoon and at or just over 15 knots tonight creating some choppy conditions in the waters. Winds will drop back to 10 to 15 knots tomorrow and remain in that range through Sunday. A cold front will then slip through the waters Sunday night and winds will shift to the northeast for Monday and Tuesday. Wind speeds will also rise back to 15 to 20 knots and seas will increase to 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 4 to 6 feet offshore creating another round of choppy seas.

Showers and some thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage Thursday and especially Friday through the weekend as a tropical wave moves through the northern gulf and interacts with the approaching cold front.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078- 091-093-095-097.

GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...None.