textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Moisture will return to the area through the remainder of the week, which will allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon.

- Heat index values will gradually increase through the end of the week but are currently forecast to remain just below hazardous levels.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The region will remain between two upper level ridges...one over the Four Corners region and the other over the western Atlantic through the short term. The upper low over the southern Appalachians has opened and moved downstream, but again this weakness in the mid and upper levels remain in its wake. At the surface winds will generally be light and southerly. This has helped bring the humidity values up once again, which is why diurnally driven convection will continue to gradually increase through the short term period as well. Surface temperatures will still be around average for this time of year and with added humidity the "feels like" temperatures will continue to heat up, but still look to remain a degree or two below hazardous thresholds across the CWFA. The cooler locations will be right along the coast with the onshore flow with locations further inland heating up into the middle 90s each afternoon. Going into the weekend surface winds tend to shift a bit more easterly as high pressure tries to build into the Southeast from the east. As for POPs the best course of action through the short term is to apply seasonal afternoon POPs. Not everyone will get rain, but we will not exactly be dry either. Very much the epitome of summer here on the northern Gulf Coast. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A fairly typical summertime pattern will be in place through the extended period. The western periphery of the Bermuda ridge will be over about the eastern half of the Gulf over the weekend, and cover most of the northern Gulf by midweek next week. With ridging over the Rockies, this will leave a bit of a weakness in the upper pattern (592 dm vs 595 dm with the ridges) from near Memphis to Dallas-Fort Worth for the first half of next week.

With weak onshore flow expected, and precipitable water values in the 50th to 75th percentile range, isolated to scattered afternoon convection looks to be the consistent trend for the first half of the week. At this point, NBM PoP12 for the daytime hours Monday and Tuesday looks to be a little on the high side (by 10-20 percent) south of Interstate 10.

Temperatures will likely be within a few degrees of the 90 degree mark each day, with timing of convective development determining which side of 90 a location ends up on each day. Overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s will continue. Heat index values will likely approach Heat Advisory criteria (108F) along the Interstate 10/12 corridors in locations that don't have storms develop until late afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday. (RW)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Outside of convection later this afternoon, mainly VFR conditions expected. That said, MCB may see some brief reduced visibilities right around sunrise. As for convection, expect brief VIS/CIG reductions at least in the heaviest activity. Convection should be cleared by around sunset with lighter southerly winds. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 144 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The low-level pressure gradient may tighten slightly Friday into the weekend as surface high pressure becomes better established over the eastern Gulf while lower pressures persist over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. This will alter flow to more of a south to southeast direction today and then southeasterly to easterly through the weekend. Speeds should generally remain around 5 to 10 knots, although periods of 10 to 15 knots will be possible over the outer waters as an easterly fetch becomes better established going into the weekend. Seas will generally remain 1 to 2 feet today with 2 to 3 feet for the outer waters this weekend.

Increasing Gulf moisture will also bring a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week. Convection will be most common, in typical summertime fashion, over the coastal waters during the overnight and morning hours. Then activity shifts inland with the developing sea breeze during the afternoon hours. Expect locally higher winds and seas in and around convection. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.