textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- A weak tropical wave in the central Gulf will continue to slowly approach the LA coast by Friday. This is leading to strong winds and will drive rich Gulf moisture north into the area Friday through the weekend.

- Strong easterly to east-southeasterly winds will continue through Friday leading to hazardous marine conditions and minor coastal flooding. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for all coastal areas except surrounding the tidal lakes through Friday. - Abundant moisture will help lead to numerous to widepsread light to moderate showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Areas east of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12 corridors will have the greatest risk of seeing locally heavy rain.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Front, although becoming weakly defined now is in the Gulf with much drier air slowly infiltrating from the northeast leading to a wide range in the PWs over the area. PW values according to GOES19 TPW product are around 1.3" in our northeast while 2" PWs sit over the Atchafalaya basin. Winds have already increased over the coastal waters and that is driving the water inland with Waveland and Shell Beach topping out around 2' and 2.3' MHHW respectively. This was a little higher than what was expected yesterday and the tide forecast today is expected to be higher this afternoon possibly by half a foot. We will also see other sights start to feel some minor impacts from the tides.

The main forecast problem today and into the weekend is the tropical wave over the central Gulf and the impacts that it is expected to bring into the area, mainly Friday and Saturday. That said we are not anticipating significant impacts but there will be impacts mainly for the marine and coastal communities. Locally heavy rain will also be watched closely. As for today it should be quite a bit drier than what we have seen the last few days however, that doesn't necessarily mean we will remain dry. Still expect showers out there today but most of the activity will likely remain confined to the coast and across much of the River Parishes. Biggest impacts today will be the marine hazards covered in the the Marine discussion below and the tidal concerns. Already mentioned a little about the tides today but to reemphasize we may see a little more widespread minor impacts today with Port Fourchon possibly seeing some minor coastal flooding. Generally strong easterly flow isn't the optimal direction to get coastal flooding west of the mouth of the MS river but what is likely occurring is the water as a whole is being nudged north and that could lead to tides around 1' MHHW which is right at the level where we begin to see minor impacts and not just the typical tidal fluctuation impacts. Because of that all of the coastal sections with the exception of the tidal lakes are in the coastal Flood Advisory. This includes areas around Lake Salvador. We will need to watch those closely because the water has definitely started to enter Lake Pontchartrain now and the Bayou Gauche gage just norhwest of Salvador has increased quickly (this is relative though as quickly just meant 4 tenths since midday yesterday to 7Z).

Heading into Friday conditions will likely begin to go downhill as the tropical wave approaches the coast. Not expecting this wave to intensify so no further tightening of the pressure gradient is anticipated thus winds over the region will likely be about the same as the are today, 10-15 mph inland and 14-18 mph along the immediate coast with gusts probably around 20 to 25 mph across much of the area. Biggest change would be winds will start to veer and likely be out of the southeast and east-southeast. This will also lead to rich tropical moisture surging into the area, especially for areas east of I-55 and along and south of the 10/12 corridor. With that anticipating much greater coverage of rain tomorrow and a decent chance of rain lasting from late morning into the evening hours for some areas. So with that one would think that flooding should be a problem, well yes but it doesn't seem like it will be a major impact at this time. Yes we will have abundant rich moisture but with the lack of adequate instability we are likely looking at a more showery setup. What about warm rain processes, eh that doesn't really look that likely either with h5 temps ranging from -5 to -6C so that doesn't seem to be a concern. We will also be dealing with a ridge centered just off to our east (subsidence). The areas that may have the best chance of seeing locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is the one area that currently has much drier air so, that will need to recover quickly and saturate. I hate to say it but that area looks like coastal MS and perhaps just west across the Pearl River and even portions of the Southshore. Coastal MS may have the best LL convergence as the LL winds will be strongest on the east side of the wave which will be just east of the MS Delta. We may also have favorable upper level diffluence just above that region as well however, with very mild instability to work with, Showalters of 0 to maybe -1C, ML CAPE around 500 J/kg or lower, and mid lvl lapse rates around 5.5 isolated embedded thunderstorms may be the best we see in that area. So a wet dreary day for much of the area especially the Southshore and all coastal locations with a slightly better focus over coastal MS but probably not the quick intense rainfall rates we saw a week ago.

Rain starts to taper off in the evening and generally with a tropical like system there is the possibility of convection consolidating but refiring overnight the more hybrid nature of this system doesn't quite suggest a nocturnal maximum with convection but we will see the activity pick up once again with numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms storms early Saturday and through much of the day. /CAB/

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Upper ridging on Sunday evening will extend from the eastern Gulf northward along Interstate 65 to Lake Michigan. Troughing will be over New England and the northern Plains States. The northern Plains trough will shift the northern portion of the ridge eastward to the Appalachians by Tuesday evening, where it will weaken by Wednesday evening. The upper ridge will recenter itself over Missouri or Illinois by Wednesday evening. This will place the local area back into easterly flow by midweek next week.

The airmass will still be rather moist on Sunday with precipitable water values near or above 2 inches, above the 90th percentile. Forecast soundings do indicate some drying for Monday and especially Tuesday, which looks to be the driest day (or at least the least threat of heavy rain), if we have one. If nothing else, there should be at least fewer showers and storms Monday through Wednesday as compared to the upcoming weekend. Moisture does start to ramp back up on Wednesday for a couple of days, with a bit of an increase in areal coverage of convection.

The lower chances for rain early next week should mean high temperatures a few degrees warmer than over the weekend, with high temperatures topping out around 90 or so from Monday onward. We won't see appreciably lower dewpoints, so overnight lows are likely to remain in the 70s across most areas. /RW/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

All terminals are in VFR status at issuance but we could see tempo MVFR cigs through the morning with cloud bases between 2500-3500. After sunrise we will likely see some improvement. Most terminals will likely remain rain free most of the day but the southwestern half of the cwa will see light -SHRA at times. Given the lack of confidence in coverage today only going to indicate PROB30's for some terminals while removing the mention of -SHRA. Other issue to bring up is LLWS through this morning. Only indicating that at MCB, HDC, ASD, and GPT while all other terminals. /CAB/

MARINE

Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Front, although weakly defined, is in the Gulf while the weak tropical wave is moving into the central Gulf. A tight pressure gradient in place between the wave and high pressure over the southeastern US is leading to strong easterly winds with solidly sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots over all of the coastal waters. Gusts above 30 knots are occurring. Seas are still climbing with the outer waters already around 7 feet. These hazardous conditions will continue through Friday before finally seeing winds start to veer around to more southeasterly and then southerly this weekend as that tropical wave moves towards the Louisiana coast Friday and inland on Saturday. Going into this weekend some improvement takes place, but winds and seas will remain moderate. We will see an increase in storms Friday and Saturday, especially east of the Mississippi River Delta and that will lead to locally higher winds and seas. /CAB/

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ070-076-078- 091.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ093-095-097.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ529-531>536- 541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ086>088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ531>536-541- 543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.