textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- A weak tropical wave is exiting the area but will leave an unsettled environment at least through today. Rain chances will lower as we move through the new week.

- As winds fall to around 10 to 15 knots and remain lower, tide levels have also lowered but only enough to fall out of advisory criteria. Further slow easing of these tide levels is expected today into the new work week. - Eventhough rain chances are lower today, abundant moisture remains along with saturated soils in many locations, it will not take much rain to push these areas into flooding where any heavy rains fall. A more pronounced drying trend will begin Monday with less activity around through much of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Wednesday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The upper low over the central CONUS will begin to open and move north Monday. Until that occurs, deep moisture will continue to move northward on the east side of this low. This is not normally a problem either if its just Atlantic/Gulf moisture. But this has been amplified by converging the EastPac moisture with those moisture feeds. This is common during this time of year and some even call it the gulf monsoon period(May/June). We normally see headlines with flooding over SE TX like the Houston area, but this can and does land anywhere along the gulf coast. It just so happens to be the central gulf coast for now. But this plume of moisture is showing signs of moving west and eventually, the EastPac will cut off making the area dry and hot again. This is the overall climatalogical theme each year so we will see how this moves in the short term, but "dry" weather does look like it will be here for a stretch this week. There will still be daily storm around but should be in a more normal summer-like distribution.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Upper ridging will be centered over northern Louisiana Wednesday night, with a weakness in the mid level pattern over Georgia. A strong northern stream shortwave trough will be over the Dakotas. The ridging will gradually build westward through Saturday and be centered near El Paso at that point, but extend eastward into the western and central Gulf. The northern stream trough will continue eastward through the Great Lakes by Saturday, and could push a weak frontal boundary into the area by Saturday.

Moisture levels for the end of the week won't be quite as high as they've been this weekend, mainly in the 1.6 to 1.8 range, which is closer to the 75th percentile climatologically instead of at the top of the chart. That probably will not be enough to totally shut down convective development, but areal coverage should remain much lower compared to the current weekend. Thursday and Friday should see 20 to 40 percent PoPs, and with the frontal boundary possibly in the area, 40 to 50 percent on Saturday.

Highs are likely to remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s with very little day to day change, since we should have a good bit of sunshine. Early convective development would be the only thing that could hold highs below that level. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A mix of IFR to VFR will be in and out of terminals this morning until mid morning when all sites should become MVFR to VFR. There will still be sh/ts around mainly during the daylight hours but will be slightly less numerous than previous days. These will still cause temp IFR conditions where they cross runways. For most of tonight, VFR to MVFR cigs will be the case until around sunrise when the northern tier of terminals could see IFR cigs.

MARINE

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Winds remain at 10 to 15 knots and should be this way through the end of the forecast cycle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also be possible with the higher coverage today relative to the remainder of the new week. Winds and seas will be higher in and near an thunderstorm activity.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ058-082-084- 098.

GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.