textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 305 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Severe weather increasingly likely tonight. Main threats will be damaging winds (60+mph) and lightning. An embedded tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Wind gusts may approach 30 mph through this afternoon. - Warmer than average temperatures next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 305 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Continue to clear watch #7 as the line of storms pass each parish/county. Will clear the existing locations once the line moves east of the area.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 927 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

(For more information on the ongoing overnight severe potential, please reference the previous AFD submitted at 1155AM CST 2/14/26)

The early morning system will be moving out of the region and to the east we will be left with generally decreasing clouds from west to east across the region. Behind the front only modest temperatures and moisture changes. With the flow being more from a Pacific in origin as well as lacking the northern stream influence, not much of a temperatures change is anticipated in the short term period. Going into the new workweek the region will reside under dry northwest flow, which means mostly a temperatures forecast. High pressure at the surface will help keep things rather benign with calmer winds and mostly clear/mostly sunny conditions. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 927 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

An H5 ridge starts to build over the region early in the period, which will help kick off a gradual warming trends this week. Surface high pressure will quickly spread east of the region allowing for a southerly surface return flow to develop over the area. With the light to moderate low level flow, expect foggy conditions to develop once again mid to late week during the overnight and morning hours. Otherwise, temperatures during the afternoon are expected to warm well into the 70s and even lower 80s late in the week across the interior portions of southeast Louisiana. Within the very rich warm/moist advection Friday and into the weekend there could be a few streamer showers along the coast. However, a weak cold front will also begin to slide southward going into next weekend with at least modest POPs to round out the long term period. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 927 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A cold front will bring convection into the region overnight. This quick moving line will enter the BTR area around midnight and move eastward beyond the MS Gulf Coast by around 12-13z. With this line westerly winds of 40kts+ will be likely and VIS/CIG reductions can be expected. Again this should last only a few hours during the overnight. Conditions will improve from west to east through Sunday morning with everyone seeing VFR by the end of the cycle. West or northwest winds will also be gusty with some gusts between 20 and 30 knots possible early Sunday afternoon before relaxing late in the period. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 927 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

An approaching low pressure system will keep potentially hazardous winds in seas in place today. Winds will likely exceed 20 knots for most of the local waters with waves approaching or even exceeding 7ft at times over the open Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Sunday evening. The remainder of next week will see lighter winds and calmer seas return as a broad surface high pressure system dominates the Gulf. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.