textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1059 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- No significant weather-related hazards are expected through Saturday.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will begin returning Sunday, mainly for areas west of the I-59 corridor.

- Temperatures are forecast to be near to above normal through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Saturday night) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

We've are continuing right along a quite tranquil weather pattern across the region mid/late week. No major impacts anticipated today through Saturday Night, only that surface high pressure will drift east with time, following upstream confluence behind a departing east- coast trough, resulting in a transitioning weak, quasi- zonal flow aloft. Did tweak highs slightly today and Saturday to follow verification trends with respect to probabilistic ensemble guidance, aiming slightly warmer than suggested deterministic NBM values but overall, mid/upper 80's will fall at to slightly above climatological normals.

Additionally with respect to the high drifting east, surface to low-level moist Gulf return flow will set up with time west to east. But, this may take some time with today likely seeing the afternoon PBL mixing regime win over more for areas along/east of I-55, removed just enough from the establishing low-level return flow regime over east Texas/west LA. This might allow dewpoints to mix down into the 50's briefly in these eastern areas from 18-23Z, but going into Saturday, the moist return flow wins over with it feeling a bit more humid areawide. KLG

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Southerly flow will basically hold through the whole long term forecast period bringing plenty of gulf moisture inland. Sufficient instability will be in the area each day but there isn't too much shear available. So generally we'll begin seeing summerlike diurnally driven afternoon showers and storms starting on Sunday and chances will slowly tick up as we move through mid next week. High temperatures will stick around the mid to upper 80s although increasing cloud cover and localized storms could help keep the highs in check in some spots. BL

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Expect VFR flight conditions for all area terminals through the TAF cycle. Not anticipating major impacts with primarily SKC/FEW250 and light SFC winds. KLG

MARINE

Issued at 1059 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

High pressure will continue to drift east of the area late this week, providing an increased southeasterly return flow through the weekend. Moisture increasing from the Gulf will provide a daily chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms starting Sunday, with more notable coverage possible mid to late next week but prevailing conditions will continue to support mainly light to breezy southeasterly winds and waves/seas generally in the 1-2ft range for protected waters, to 3-4 ft for outer Gulf waters. KLG

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.