textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast during the mid to late afternoon hours each day through the work week. A few storms could become strong to severe each day. The main threat from any severe storms will be damaging wind gusts. Frequent lightning and brief periods of very heavy rain will also be possible from these storms. Stay weather aware and remember when thunder roars, go indoors.

- The increase in rain chances and cloud cover will help limit heat threats through the week, however, heat index values may still approach advisory criteria each day before thunderstorms develop by early afternoon. Those with outdoor plans should continue to take precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses. Stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air conditioning if possible.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Friday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Upper ridge remains parked over New Mexico and west Texas, with an upper low over the St. Lawrence River Valley, part of a trough extending southward into the Carolinas. Cold pool from yesterday's storms has pushed the effective frontal boundary offshore. Have seen a few patches of fog develop over the last hour or so, but don't expect it to become widespread enough to justify an advisory.

Main concern the remainder of the workweek will be the daily development of showers and thunderstorms. The upper ridge isn't moving very much between now and Friday, perhaps a bit westward. While most days should just see scattered activity during the afternoon, Thursday appears to be the one day with potential for MCS development bringing at least a low end threat for severe weather (wind) and/or excessive rainfall as a shortwave moves toward the base of the trough. Precipitable water values look to remain near or above 2 inches across most of the area.

Areal coverage of convection each afternoon will have a significant impact on high temperatures, with Wednesday the warmest of the week for most areas with highs in the mid 90s. If convection Wednesday is as limited as it currently appears, we may need Heat Advisory headlines, at least in the Interstate 10/12 corridors.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Monday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Over the weekend, shortwave energy moving through the east side of the overall east coast trough will lift northeastward as the upper low over Canada shifts eastward as well. This will cause the longer wave trough to flatten somewhat, leaving the local area in a general weakness between two highs on Saturday - one centered over the southwestern CONUS and another centered over the Atlantic.

By Sunday the high is forecast to start bridging across the southern Mississippi Valley. However, with the main ridge axis being north of the local area, it shouldn't exert enough influence to completely shut off diurnal convection - especially with ample moisture remaining in place across the Gulf south. Still expect to see convective coverage drop to more of an isolated to scattered pattern than scattered to numerous as a result though.

Will continue to mention that the GFS and its ensemble mean are a bit more aggressive/amplified with the ridging. If this more amplified solution verifies, the extended forecast would likely trend slightly warmer and drier than what is currently being advertised.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Terminals were generally VFR at issuance time, but considering rain occurred just before sunset, there's at least the potential for BR/FG by sunrise this morning at many terminals. Have already seen brief reductions in visibilities at KASD, KHDC and KBTR. For now, will carry MVFR visibilities in some terminals until around 15z. Expect TSRA to redevelop around midday, but areal coverage of storms won't be as extensive as Monday afternoon. Mainly PROB30 used for those, with most or all precipitation dissipating by 00z Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. Weak and variable winds around 5 to 10 knots and varying between southerly and westerly will predominate through the week. Generally, scattered thunderstorms will remain possible every day with winds and waves higher in and near this activity.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None.