textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Dangerous heat continues with afternoon heat indices in the 105-113 degree range through the week. Warm overnight temperatures will offer limited to no relief.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon storms are expected the next couple days with a little better coverage Friday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Sunday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

It is getting easier to see the large high building into the SW CONUS on IR imagery. This high will begin to amplify causing the polar trough to buckle a bit causing deeper troughing which will cause this weakness that has been near the area to orient in the same fashion just farther west and south by Fri. We will likey be past the hottest temps of the day Fri before any protective cloud cover from the storms develops. The orientation of this weak trough should be from Texarkana to Alexandria to McComb to Mobile. This will help provide the area with more storms than we have been seeing lately. The bad part is that with these storms, there will be the potential for isolated severe. The good thing about all of this activity will be a break from the heat even if it is after the hottest part of the day. Backing up to Thu will show how this troughing will orient itself for Fri. We should see the trough moving south through southern Arkansas by late Thu. The give away will be the development of sh/ts along it boundary and the best way to see it is at 850mb. That same orientation that it takes on Thu will be much the same for Fri just farther south. Each day through Sunday will keep slightly better chances of storms but it will take the strongest heating of the day to get them going with convective temps in the mid 90s. Basically, the heat and heat headlines will likely continue each day since it will be after we have achieved the hottest temps of each day that storms will begin to develop.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Going into the start of the new workweek, sadly the pattern will hold with very little change. There will be some slight troughing over the eastern US and even Florida where the best potential for more numerous showers and storms will reside. However, the H5 heat bubble situated over the southern Plains and Four Corners region will continues to ridge east over our region ultimately keeping POPs on the low side. Overall, the best potential for convection will be over the open Gulf waters at night especially adjacent to the Mississippi Coast. Outside of that, the MS Gulf coast Monday through Wednesday will have the highest POPs during the afternoon along the sea breeze. Silent 10s for SE LA and SW MS are there so not 100 percent completely free of rain, but it will certainly be uncommon west of the I59 corridor. As for temperatures, you guessed it. Ridging aloft means we will continue to bake daily. Heat index values through the long term support continued heat headlines from Monday through Wednesday with again perhaps some afternoon relief over the MS Gulf Coast. One other small note...regarding convection with plenty of dry air aloft, DCAPE values will be more than supportive enough to strong gusty winds in the taller and wider updrafts along the MS Gulf Coast. A rogue severe storm or two with severe wind gust potential will be something to watch in the coming days for that region of the CWFA. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR for most terminals today. TSRA will develop late in the day again with the highest chances within the same areas that we have seen for the last few days. Outside TSRA, VFR will be the rule for all terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Surface high pressure centered over the central Gulf will maintain a generally weak pressure gradient through much of the period. A predominantly westerly flow will continue, with higher winds during the early morning and late night hours. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible with winds and waves higher in and near this activity, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088.

GM...None.