textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

* A significant cool down is forecast following today's cold front. Low temperatures near or just below freezing are forecast for most places that are generally along/north of the I-10/12 corridor Monday and Tuesday mornings. Any freezing temperatures should only last a few hours. Residents should take action to protect sensitive vegetation and ensure outdoor pets have access to warm shelter.

* According to the National Fire Protection Association, nearly half of all home fires occur between the months of December, January and February, with the increased risk attributed to the use of home heating devices such as portable space heaters and fire places. Those planning to use such devices during this cold snap should be sure to follow all manufacturer safety recommendations - such as using a screen and keeping a fire extinguisher near all fire places; and ensuring all space heaters are plugged directly into wall outlets and placed on level surfaces at least 3 ft from any flammable materials. * In the wake of the cold front, hazardous conditions strong winds and rough seas will develop across the coastal waters. Small craft advisories are in effect from 6p this evening through 6a Monday. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Today's cold front will continue to move east/southeastward out of the area and into the Gulf this afternoon. A band of post-frontal showers continues to be noted on radar, about 75 miles behind the main line of showers and storms. Once this activity clears the area, expect a dry forecast through the remainder of the short term, with a wind shift to the northwest.

Expect a significant cool down behind the front, with overnight lows tonight forecast to be a solid 20-30 degrees cooler than last night. And believe it or not, tonight's lows in the 40s are STILL a few degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Woof. At least we can turn off our air conditioners for a while!

Temperatures during the day Sunday will be cooler than normal, topping out in the mid 50s most places with breezy conditions, so have those jackets on hand.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Expect the coldest temperatures behind the front to occur late Sunday night/Monday morning and late Monday night/Tuesday morning as the high pressure and colder air mass settle over the area. Efficient radiative cooling will have temperatures falling quickly after sunset, and morning lows are forecasts to bottom out near or just below freezing for areas along/north of the I-10/12 corridor both mornings. For areas that experience freeze conditions, temperatures should only be at or below freezing for a few hours, so the main impact will be to unprotected sensitive vegetation. Residents should also take care to provide outdoor pets with warm shelter and/or blankets, and those using indoor space heaters or fire places should heed all necessary safety precautions.

Regarding any cold weather headlines, it doesn't look like we'll meet criteria anywhere. Temperatures across the southernmost areas should remain above freezing, which precludes a freeze warning, and wind chills/ambient temperatures are forecast to remain above cold weather advisory criteria in all locations, though a couple places do get close along the I-10/12 corridor where wind chills will approach 25 degrees Monday morning for a couple hours.

Afternoon temperatures will remain chilly on Monday, once again only rising into the mid 50s most places, but should be a bit warmer, closer to 60 degrees, Tuesday afternoon as a brief warming trend sets in ahead of the next frontal system.

By midweek, a southern stream disturbance over northern Mexico will begin to open up as it gets absorbed into the longer-wave northern stream trough digging southward from the Great Lakes region toward the Gulf Coast. After a brief warm up on Wednesday, another cold front will drop temperatures back below normal to close out the work week. Regarding precipitation, the highest chances will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the broadening southern stream disturbance moves through the local area. Even then, rain chances appear fairly meager (only in the slight chance to low-end chance range) due to limited moisture return ahead of the disturbance.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

MVFR cigs will rise to VFR before sunrise and should be skc for all terminals by mid morning. North winds will be a bit gusty mainly for coastal terminals during the morning but will ease through the day Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 1202 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

In the wake of today's cold front, high pressure will build across the coastal waters. The combination of a tight pressure gradient and cold air advection will lead to strong winds and rough seas this evening through Sunday night. A small craft advisory will remain in effect for all coastal waters of SE LA and MS during this time. As the high settles over the area Monday, winds and seas will ease until another disturbance approaches the area midweek with another round of caution or advisory conditions likely Wednesday and Thursday as another cold front and following high pressure result in a tightening pressure gradient and cold air advection once again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

MCB 69 40 56 31 / 80 10 0 0 BTR 71 42 59 33 / 80 0 0 0 ASD 74 42 60 31 / 80 0 0 0 MSY 75 48 61 40 / 70 0 0 0 GPT 73 45 59 34 / 80 0 0 0 PQL 75 43 60 31 / 80 10 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.