textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Severe weather increasingly likely Saturday evening into Sunday mid-day. Main threats will be damaging winds (60+mph) and lightning. An embedded tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Wind gusts may approach 30 mph late Saturday and into Sunday. - One more round of dense fog tonight into tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Sunday night) Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light onshore flow and high relative humidity will remain in place through tomorrow morning. These conditions will allow for another round of dense fog development tonight into early tomorrow morning across the entire forecast area. Dense fog probabilities from both the RRFS and HREF indicate a 50 to 70 percent chance of dense fog development over portions of the area tonight. Given these high probabilities, have opted to pre- emptively issue a dense fog advisory beginning at midnight and lasting through 9 am. There will also be increased traffic tomorrow morning for the many Mardi Gras related activities scheduled to take place tomorrow, and this led further credence to issuing a proactive dense fog advisory.

Once the fog clears late tomorrow morning, skies will remain mostly cloudy and temperatures will be mild in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Winds will also be on the increase as a low pressure system approaches from the west with winds of 15 to 20 mph expected by the late afternoon hours. These winds will further increase through the evening and overnight hours as a strong 50 knot low level jet forms at 850mb in advance of the approaching low pressure system. Winds will likely gust over 30 mph at times. A squall line is also projected to develop over western Louisiana and quickly race to the east as the low approaches, and all of the high resolution convectively aided models are lining up well with the peak timing occurring between midnight and 10 AM Saturday night into Sunday morning. The line will advance to the east quickly with the Baton Rouge metro experiencing the line around 2 to 5 am, New Orleans around 4 to 7 am, and Gulfport around 6 to 9 am. A review of model sounding data indicates a significant lack of low level instability in advance of the line. This will greatly inhibit the severe potential with this feature. The only parameter that really stands out is directional shear of 200 to 300 m2/s2 in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere. This decent helicity will support some rotation in the line, especially where any weak bowing surges take place, and this may be enough to overcome the stable layer at the surface. Thus, the primary concern will be for one or two brief tornadic spin-ups to occur as the line progresses eastward late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

The line of storms should fully clear the forecast area by Noon on Sunday, and a surge of strong negative vorticity advection in the wake of the upper level low will allow skies to rapidly clear through the afternoon hours. Winds will remain elevated at 15 to 20 mph from the northwest into Sunday evening, but the winds will quickly fall off Sunday night as a surface high builds in from the west. This high will have a Pacific based airmass associated with it, so temperatures will remain mild on Sunday with highs climbing back into the upper 60s and lower 70s and lows only dipping into the 50s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A strong shortwave ridge axis will build over the area on Monday and remain in place through Thursday. Deep layer subsidence will keep a very dry and stable airmass in place across the region. PWATS will be dry at around 0.75 inches and a strong mid-level capping inversion will inhibit most cloud development. Temperatures will also gradually warm through the week with highs climbing into the low to mid 80s by Thursday. The drier airmass will allow for decent radiational cooling each night of around 30 to 35 degrees, and this will allow lows to fall into the 50s. Low level humidity will remain decently high and winds will be light, so some patchy fog development can be expected each night as temperatures cool and boundary layer decoupling intensifies.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

More low CIGs and dense fog leading to reduced visibilities late tonight and into mid to late morning Saturday. Again, IFR or lower can be anticipated for most terminals. Improvement will be slow to occur Saturday morning, but slowly but surely VFR will be realized in time. Winds will also begin to increase with some gusts as high as 25 to 30 knots during the late afternoon and early evening. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Dense fog will continue to be the primary concern in the coastal waters tonight into tomorrow morning as light southerly flow persists. However, an approaching low pressure system will allow the onshore flow to increase dramatically throughout the day tomorrow and winds will exceed 20 knots by the late evening hours. These strong winds will persist into Sunday evening before finally easing as high pressure settles over the region. As these stronger winds persist, seas will build to over 7 feet and turn rough resulting in hazardous conditions to smaller craft. A small craft advisory is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for this threat. The remainder of next week will see lighter winds and calmer seas return as a broad surface high pressure system dominates the Gulf South.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572- 575-577.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577.