textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 - Above average temperatures this week.

- Next chance of rainfall will come into play late this week and into the following weekend as a weak cold front moves into the region.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The upper level flow pattern has evolved into a more northwestern flow aloft. Despite this typically leading to a dry and cooler airmass...yes, some slightly lower temps (slightly drier) when compared to the last few days, the pattern still suggests 70s for high temps (away from cooler waters). Otherwise, this morning a deck of low stratus will be in place and will be slow to mix out, which could affect temps just a bit. As soon as surface heating takes over we shouldn't have much of an issue with climbing temps this afternoon (as long as we mix out). Surface high pressure will begin to move into the region this afternoon, which will calm surface winds through the short term period. Eventually, an upper level ridge will spread eastward from south Texas and into the Gulf through the end of the period. The height rises will also aid in additional warming temperatures going into Mardi Gras and as you will soon read, in the long term section, beyond. (Frye)

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Early in the long term period, the main focus will be continued increase in daily temperatures with some locations west of the lakes warming well into the 80s through the end of the week. Surface high pressure will continue east of the region, which will allow for a warm/rich low level return flow to take shape across the region. This and the higher heights will allow for temperatures to increase, again leading to some locations hitting 80F+ as we progress through the long term.

Going into late this week, a modest frontal boundary will move southward with a weak upper trough. Initially, the front looks to hang up and stall just north of our region, which may support some isolated light shower activity as well as moisture pooling may support fog as well. Eventually, an H5 trough will push the frontal boundary through the region later on next weekend. Globals are in a bit of a disagreement with timing, but both only have a modest QPF signal with the frontal passage with very little to work with aloft for our region...most of the ascent looks to stay well north of our region. Needless to say we have time to watch the evolution here since this is Day 6/7. (Frye)

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions expected this morning for most terminals as low stratus begins to develop and build down. It may take a bit of time today for clouds to mix out, but eventually the conditions will improve back to VFR for all terminals during the afternoon. Northwest winds will eventually lighten and become more variable. (Frye)

MARINE

Issued at 1151 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Winds will begin to decrease through the morning. Cautionary headlines will continue through sunrise, but overall through the day, marine conditions will gradually become more favorable as high pressure moves into the region. By mid-week, the high will shift to the east and a persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will develop. These conditions will last through the end of the week. (Frye)

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ530-532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.