textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 517 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

- A weak cold front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms to the area late Thursday into Friday. Despite relatively high rain chances, rain totals are generally forecast to be around or less than one half inch, which will do little to ease ongoing drought conditions.

- Moderate to strong winds across the coastal waters will lead to hazardous conditions for small craft overnight. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Troughing over the east half of the country with ridging over the west. Shortwaves were over Illinois and western Nebraska this evening, as well as one off the Oregon coast. At the surface, high pressure extended from the western Atlantic into much of the Gulf. Low pressure was over the Southern Plains. Skies were mostly cloudy across the area this evening with temperatures generally in the middle 60s. Dew points were in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

The Nebraska shortwave will already be off the Atlantic Coast 24 hours from now. The shortwave off the Oregon coast this evening will be in Oklahoma Thursday evening, and off the Atlantic Coast Friday night. There won't be a lot of low level forcing, so widespread coverage of precipitation doesn't look very likely, but there will be enough instability to justify the mention of thunderstorms. Instantaneous areal coverage probably will not get much more than 40 percent with the best window for precipitation Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, but over a 12 hour period, rain chances could get up into the 60-70 percent range over eastern areas. Rain amounts are likely to struggle to get past one quarter to one half inch in many areas, and areas west of Interstate 55 may get little or no rain. We'll have to keep an eye on the potential for fog development early Friday morning, especially in areas that may still have smoke lingering from wildfires or prescribed burns. Right now it looks like patchy fog, we'll see how that plays out the next 18 hours or so.

Thursday and Friday morning low temperatures may not drop below 60 in most of the area. Somewhat drier air may allow for Saturday morning lows to fall into the lower and mid 50s. Highs the next two days are expected to be in the 70s, and if areas get a little more sunshine than expected, could reach 80 or a little more, especially Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

As the eastern U.S. trough pushes out into the Atlantic, high pressure will build into the area as upper ridging builds first into Mexico, and then the Gulf by the first half of next week. Currently appears that little, if any, precipitation will occur from Saturday through the middle of next week. High temperatures are likely to range from the mid 70s to lower 80s for much of the area, although coastal areas could be slightly cooler. Overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Normals for the end of February and the first week in March are usually in the mid and upper 40s for lows and upper 60s for highs.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Cigs will slowly lower from MVFR to IFR through the day and remain through much of the night hours, eventually becoming LIFR after before daylight Fri. Vis will lower to MVFR with -SHRA that move over today and tonight. But vis should lower to IFR or lower especially near the coast by late tonight as some FG and BR begin to set in along with SHRA.

MARINE

Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Surface high pressure will remain over Florida and much of the Gulf, keeping persistent moderate to strong onshore flow over the local coastal waters tonight. Guidance indicates the gradient should relax Thursday morning pretty quickly as high pressure pulls away from the Gulf, and the current intention is to allow all headlines to expire at 12z. The next front swings through the coastal waters Friday morning accompanied by scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, and resulting in a wind shift to an offshore direction. Winds are currently forecast to remain below headline criteria following this front. High pressure will move quickly eastward over the weekend with winds becoming easterly again by Sunday and southeasterly as early as Sunday night.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ550-552-570-572.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ552-570-572.