textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Next system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will begin during the Tuesday impacting election day while a few stronger storms will be possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday with the front.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday night) Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Through tonight, a shortwave ridge axis will continue to pass over the region. This will keep overall rain chances at 10 percent or less as weak subsidence aloft keeps the mid to upper levels dry and largely stable. In the low levels, a persistent onshore flow will continue to usher in Gulf moisture resulting in continued strato-cumulus development beneath the mid-level inversion and above average temperatures and dewpoints. Lows will only dip into the mid to upper 60s, and a few a locations may only cool into the low 70s south of I-10.

The warm and moist airmass will start to feel the influence of an approaching shortwave trough passing through the Arklatex region tomorrow afternoon. Favorable jet dynamics will be in place to support a broad region of increased forcing across the forecast area as the area finds itself beneath the entrance region of an upper level jet streak. The trough itself will start to take on a more negative tilt as it ejects into the Mississippi Valley tomorrow evening into tomorrow night, but the best shear will remain displaced well to the north of the forecast area. Bulk shear will stay below 30 knots and helicity values will struggle to exceed 100 m2/s2 in the lowest 3km. Additionally, overall thermodynamic support will be lacking as mid-level lapse rates remain below 5.5 C/KM and overall mixed layer CAPE struggles to reach 800 J/KG. Given these limiting factors, the severe threat will be very low for Tuesday night. One or two stronger storms may try to form in southwest Mississippi where forcing will be greatest, but most of the activity will be in the form of light to moderate rain showers through the night over the forecast area. Temperatures will remain above average with highs in the low to mid 80s tomorrow and lows only cooling into the mid to upper 60s ahead of an approaching front tomorrow night.

The front will sweep through the area Wednesday morning with lingering rain showers, but improving conditions are expected by the afternoon hours as increasing negative vorticity and dry air advection takes hold. Weak cold air advection will also take place behind the front, and this will allow temperatures to cool closer to average from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Lows will dip into the 50s inland and low 60s south of the lake each night and highs will climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Looking up stream a positively tilted H5 trough will be sliding across the central plains generally toward our region. At the surface a weak frontal boundary will drop southward toward our area. Globals show just enough upper level support for some shower development Friday, but vary on amounts with the GFS a bit more bullish (albeit still lower end) in terms of QPF signal. For now POPs are going to be on the lower side, but some upward trend in subsequent forecasts will be possible. As the front moves through the airmass behind the front does cool us back down to around average. A progressive upper level pattern develops briefly on Saturday before a strong upper level trough digs southward. This one will actually contain a more Canadian airmass meaning behind the next front late in the weekend expect temperatures to be cooler than the prior front. Given the lack of a meaningful return flow, expect a mostly dry frontal passage, at least as it would appear now.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The main aviation concern throughout this TAF period will be the potential for lower ceilings, especially tomorrow morning. Most terminals should see some improvement this evening as ceilings begin to scatter out. However, with the low-level moisture remaining in place, MVFR ceilings look to return across much of the area tomorrow morning, with MCB potentially dropping to IFR conditions. Some patchy fog will also be possible around MCB and HUM during the morning hours, but otherwise visibilities should remain unrestricted. Ceilings should gradually improve throughout the day as mixing increases, although scattered showers will be possible from late morning into the afternoon. Some of these showers could briefly lower ceilings and visibilities, but widespread impacts are not expected. Winds will generally remain out of the east to southeast through the period, with some gusts around 20kt possible along the Mississippi coast tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Continued gusty easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist into tonight over the waters resulting in continued rough seas. Small craft advisories remain in effect through this evening due to these conditions. Winds should gradually weaken and become more southeasterly Tuesday as the pressure gradient relaxes ahead of the approaching cold front. Given the expected flattening of the upper- level trough aloft and limited support behind the frontal boundary, a significant post-frontal wind surge does not appear likely. Winds should shift offshore Wednesday into Thursday, generally remaining light to moderate as surface high pressure builds into the region. This will also allow seas to gradually subside. Showers will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday before drier conditions return. Another round of showers will also move through the waters Friday as a reinforcing cold front sweeps through the region.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ532- 534>536-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ534>536- 551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.