textproduct: New Orleans/Baton Rouge

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected for much of the forecast. Highs mainly in the mid to upper 90s with heat index values climbing into the lower to mid 110s. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for today. Beyond today, Heat Advisories are anticipated. The impact of the afternoon highs will be exacerbated by the slightly higher than normal overnight lows.

SHORT TERM

(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Each day should show one or two more storms than the day before. Most of this activity should show up with the help from some type of boundary interaction. Once one or two get started, it will go quickly as new outflows are developed. The big picture still shows the upper/mid level high developing near the Baha and eventually moving into the SW CONUS buckling the polar jet causing troughing downstream to the east. This troughing is what helps get more storms going over the SE CONUS by late Tue into Wed. Some of these storm complexes will move into the NE gulf in which they will get caught up in the easterlies, bringing some of these storm pulses back to the west. We could see a few of these in seperate intervals possibly as early as Thu. The synoptic patterns are more reliable in the mid to extended portion of any fcast as mesoscale features are handled poorly at times that far out. But the synoptic pattern is believable as the troughing would cause an unsettled region of storm activity where the base and leading edge of it settles in, which in this case, is over the SE CONUS into the NE gulf.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

As we move into the long term portion of the forecast, the global models agree on the large scale pattern with ridging centered near the Four Corners area, and troughing over the Great Lakes and Appalachians. However, there are some smaller scale details that may end up making a bit of a difference in our forecast.

A weakness over the eastern Gulf the next few days gets handled differently by the two global model families. The ECMWF solutions allow a northern stream shortwave to pick up the impulse and take it up the Atlantic Coast. This wouldn't be much of an issue for us. However, some (including the operational 18z), but not all, of the GFS members show the northern stream shortwave missing the impulse over the Gulf with it slowly drifting westward toward the local area next weekend, which could make things significantly wetter (and cooler). At this point, the numbers point toward solutions that don't produce a lot of rain. Until we get into a wetter pattern, we'll likely continue to see highs in the mid and upper 90s. If there's one day that favors being "slightly" wetter and less hot, it would be Saturday, and the differences between that day compared to Friday and Sunday are minor.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Outside TSRA times, VFR will be the rule for this taf cycle. TSRA activity will begin to develop during the afternoon hours today mainly along and near the coast. Those sites with the highest chances of getting sh/ts will be shown with timing.

MARINE

Issued at 1042 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Benign marine conditions will continue through the forecast period with high pressure mostly being in control. Isolated nightly storms will be possible mainly toward sunrise. For the winds, expect variable direction through midweek locking in to easterly from midweek through the end of the period at or less than 10 knots outside any storms. Waveheights will remain in the 1-2 foot range.

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>058-064-070-071-076>087-089>100.

GM...None. MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

GM...None.