textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazy skies forecast this afternoon into tomorrow with diurnally driven convection expected through the work week and into the weekend.

- An upper level ridge building in will provide hot and humid conditions. - No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7 days.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Broad upper level ridging will extend across the central Gulf Coast through this evening. Mix of Saharan dust and marine aerosols will create hazy skies this afternoon and likely into Tuesday morning as well. With relatively light winds throughout the tropospheric profile and weak subsidence inversion in the low levels, temperatures are forecast to run near normal to a few degrees above normal where interior locations may hedge toward the mid 90's through the midweek. These conditions may border heat advisory criteria, but will likely be highly dependent upon RH. Regardless, apparent temperatures climbing into the 100- 107F is a given this work week. By Wednesday a frontal boundary will drift southward toward northern Louisiana, however, models don't suggest enough forcing to make it down to the coast- concerning the NW Gulf. The more favorable axis for moisture advection / convergence aligns along the Florida Peninsula and east Gulf. Isolated summertime thundershowers remain possible daily with slightly better chances extending across Acadiana and Southeast LA.

Kowalski / 30

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Long range pattern has some unsettled elements, mainly precipitation. A portion of the frontal system that stall north of the forecast area does carry eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the eastern Gulf Thursday and Friday, potentially organizing into a coastal trough in this region. Confidence does remain with the daytime highs to hedge further into the mid 90's through the remainder of the week. There are several solutions within the blended and deterministic guidance that yield an opportunity for this coastal trough to stall and / or retrograde west along the toward SELA coast through the weekend. Because this solution has retained some consistency, PoP's do become little more widespread this coming weekend. With regards to coverage and amounts, that point in the forecast is well out of the scope of reasonable confidence to say more than chances becoming a little better organized. Bottom line, the tail end of the forecast is highly subject to change pending the evolution of the coastal troughing along the eastern Gulf. Hot and muggy conditions may warrant heat related products at this time as well.

Kowalski / 30

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions forecast to prevail for majority of the afternoon. SCT to BKN clouds around 3-5kft and haze will persist through the evening and overnight hours. Winds to remain light and southerly with variable SW components. TS will be limited generally to the vicinity at best, however, Acadiana terminals stand slightly higher chances of passing shower or isolated TS through sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Weak surface high pressure will remain near the area, with prevailing light onshore flow and low seas. Rain chances over the coastal waters will decrease as an upper level ridge suppresses moves overhead. Overall, benign marine conditions are expected to persist through the midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Rain chances will decrease through the short range outlook as mid to upper level ridging builds across the region. However, persistent low level moisture will keep minimum relative humidity values generally in the 45 to 65 percent range. No significant fire weather concerns are expected. More favorable region for isolated thundershowers will remain across Acadiana.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 73 96 73 95 / 10 40 20 30 LCH 76 93 76 94 / 0 20 10 30 LFT 75 92 75 92 / 10 40 20 60 BPT 75 93 75 94 / 0 10 0 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.