textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- A Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms and excessive rainfall are outlined across the forecast today

- We get a little break from the heat this week with several days of rain cooled air and cloud cover.

- High rain chances will persist through the week and into this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A partially broken line of storms is moving across SETX this afternoon with a few showers and storms ahead of the line with light to moderate showers behind it. Some of this activity has caused localized street flooding and small hail per received reports. The line will continue to break up as it progresses eastward, however the threat of flash flooding, hail, and damaging winds will continue until it passes.

An upper cutoff low has established itself over the heart of TX, however it will slowly drift off, centering itself over MO by the end of the work week. Even after it moves off, we will still have a weakness aloft over the Gulf Coast. Along with this, a stationary boundary sits across TX, stretching to the East Coast. Thanks to persistent southerly flow and an already established moist airmass, we will not be lacking of moisture. Our 18Z UA (@1.96") and model derived PWATs are generally at or above the 90th percentile for early / mid June.

Unfortunately this will spell more days of rain for the area, however the silver lining will temperatures barely reaching above climatological normals.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The unsettled pattern established during the short term will persist through the extended period thanks to the weakness aloft remaining in place over the weekend. By the work week, we might see PoPs drop as an upper ridge over MX slowly moves eastward and another upper ridge over the Atlantic expands over the Gulf. This could allow for slightly higher temperatures in the early to mid next week time frame.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A line of storms is moving across SETX this afternoon with a few showers and storms popping up ahead of the line and along the coast. Some of these showers and storms could be strong, producing heavy showers that reduce vis or hail and damaging winds. Activity will taper tonight and there is a low end chance of fog in the predawn hours.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will persist through this week. Elevated thunderstorm chances will linger through the week and the upcoming weekend which may cause locally higher winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 71 89 72 91 / 30 70 20 70 LCH 77 88 78 90 / 30 70 30 60 LFT 74 88 75 89 / 30 80 20 80 BPT 77 88 77 90 / 30 60 20 60

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.