textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- A warm front will move across on Monday bringing a warm and moist Gulf air mass back into the area. - Potential for strong to some severe storms Monday evening into Monday night as an upper level disturbance works with a moist and unstable atmosphere.

- A cold front will move through on Tuesday bringing drier and seasonably cool conditions for Thanksgiving.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure ridging down from the north bringing a slightly cooler and drier day with most of the forecast area seeing sunny skies.

Progressive pattern however will bring back changes on Monday. High pressure will shift off to the east with an upper level trough moving out of the southwest US. This will allow winds to veer to a southerly direction and increase that will push a warm front north across the forecast area during Monday, and with it a moist and moderately unstable Gulf air mass.

Progs show PWAT at or above 1.5 inches by Monday afternoon, which is over the 90th percentile, and mean layer relative humidity values over 70 percent. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop with the daytime heating by afternoon.

The forcing from the upper level trough and ongoing convective outflow boundary moving in from east Texas will allow a line of showers and thunderstorms to reach the forecast area of southeast Texas and west central Louisiana between 8 and 9 pm local. Moderate instability is progged to hang around as this system reaches the forecast area, to go along with good shear values and favorable lapse rates. Therefore, the line of storms will have some severe potential with damaging winds the main threat, although any discrete broken features ahead of along the line will have the best chance for rotation with tornadic potential. Therefore, a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) has been outlined northwest of a Beaumont to Alexandria line.

Also, with the highly anomalous moisture values, the stronger storms will have the potential for high rain rates in a short period of time with progs showing activity with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour and this will bring about some risk of urban type flooding.

The line is expected to gradually weaken during the night as it moves further east into southwest Louisiana and Acadiana.

A cold front will catch up to this activity on Tuesday afternoon pushing the moisture off to the east and south ending rain chances. Much cooler and drier conditions will then filter into the forecast area.

Rua

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

High pressure will then ridge down into the forecast area from the Plains bringing a mix of modified Canadian and Pacific air that will bring seasonably cool and dry conditions through Thanksgiving.

Still some differences in the details so the forecast for next weekend is of low confidence. However, it looks like it could be rather active as southerly flow returns and robust southern jet is noted overhead.

Rua

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

BKN to OVC high clouds expected to continue streaming across the region tonight into Monday. BPT has been reporting reduced visibilities over the last hour due to wildfire smoke in the area. Light, variable winds are expected to persist keeping smoke in the area for the next few hours and rapid changes in visibility will be possible. A few showers will develop Monday afternoon in response to the approach of a cold front that will move through the area Monday night. Convection will increase through the evening becoming more widespread just beyond the current taf period.

Jones

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 50 79 63 78 / 0 50 90 60 LCH 58 81 66 80 / 0 50 70 60 LFT 57 81 67 81 / 0 20 60 70 BPT 62 81 66 81 / 0 40 70 40

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.