textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- With stable conditions and an increase in low level moisture fog will likely become an issue again tonight.

- A sharp Canadian cold front will push through Sunday bringing unseasonably cold temperatures early next week. Portions of the region may receive their first freeze.

- Gale watch in effect for outer coastal waters.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Current conditions are warm with temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s under mostly cloudy skies. A front has slowed to a crawl and is currently bisecting the ArkLaMiss region down to STX. This front over the next several hours will begin to push into our CWA assisted by another cold front. There will be little moisture to work with, however the front could squeeze out some isolated showers tonight into tomorrow morning as it sweeps through. As far as fog is concerned, some areas of patchy to dense fog will not be out of the question across the CWA ahead of the boundary, and especially in the coastal waters. Issuance of an inland and marine Dense Fog Advisory could be possible in subsequent forecast.

Cold and dry air will filter Sunday as the surface high pressure begins to descend into the plains. This will lead to elevated northerly flow across the CWA during the day on Sunday. Wind speeds at this time appear to be below Wind Advisory criteria. The main concern at that time will be fire weather as the ongoing drought and breezy northerly winds could lead to elevated fire weather conditions. For now, a Fire Danger Statement will be in effect tomorrow, however this could be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. A secondary concern with the breezy northerly winds is the apparent temps, which are forecast to be in the in the upper 20s to lower 30s that night. It appears unlikely that a Freeze Watch/Warning will be needed at this time for that time period.

The surface high pressure will be over the central to southern plains on Monday. Wind speeds will come down a bit, however elevated fire weather conditions will persist. Highs on Monday will struggle to get higher than the upper 50s across the entire CWA, with lows radiationally cooling into the low to mid 30s that night under clear skies and nearly calm winds as the surface high moves overhead.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Friday) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

By early Tuesday morning the surface high pressure will be directly overhead with light to calm winds, clear skies, and the coldest temperatures so far this season. That morning, lows are forecast to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s for all areas except the immediate coast, where temps will likely be around 3 to 8 degrees above freezing. While pipe busting temps are not expected, there is a 40 to 95 percent probability of areas along and north of the I-10 corridor experiencing subfreezing temperatures. This will meet the criteria for a Freeze Watch/Warning and issuance is likely.

The aforementioned surface high will be centered over the central to eastern Gulf Coast by Tuesday afternoon into evening, with southerly to southeasterly flow returning. Aloft, the flow will be near zonal to WNWrly as an upper ridge takes shape over MX / the Gulf. We will see temperatures increase over the mid to end of the week period, getting to just under 10 degrees above climatological norms. There will be little to no chance for rain until the end of next week; even then, chances remain below 25 percent.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

MVFR to VFR CIGs with marked improvements in VIS across the board. Low VIS will be possible before a frontal boundary. Isolated showers also possible during that time frame, especially in lower Acadiana. Winds behind the cold front will quickly strengthen and become gusty within the hours around sunrise.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The calm conditions of the past several days will rapidly deteriorate this evening and into tomorrow morning as a robust cold front moves offshore. While it is not anticipated for storms to be an issue, winds will quickly increase with sustained north winds over 20 knots and frequent gusts of 35 knots. A Gale Watch was issued for the outer coastal waters and a small craft advisory was issued for the inland lakes and bay along with the nearshore waters. Waves will build in response to the winds, building between 6 and 10 feet Sunday and Monday. Winds will start to subside on Monday night, falling below 20 knots by Tuesday morning.

Low water advisories may be needed on Monday as the north wind pushes waters offshore but it is too early to decide on one way or the other.

The pressure gradient tightens Tuesday into Wednesday as a high pressure system moves off to the east. As a result, we could see elevated onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions will persist from Sunday through Wednesday. Sunday will be the biggest concern for fire weather as the dry cold front passes through the region and very dry air will follow. Dew points will drop into the upper 20s while minimum RH values will be around 25 to 35%. In addition, 20-foot winds will be from the north around 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 25. While Sunday will be the main concern for fire weather, elevated fire weather will be an issue through Wednesday. For the extended forecast, to the end of next work week, no measurable rain is expected. For now, a Fire Danger Statement will be in effect tomorrow, however this could be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 83 53 67 34 / 0 10 0 0 LCH 83 60 72 40 / 0 20 0 0 LFT 84 59 69 38 / 10 30 10 0 BPT 85 59 72 39 / 0 10 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Sunday for GMZ470-472- 475.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for GMZ470-472-475.