textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Moist airmass coming off the Gulf will combine with upper low eclipsing the southeast US to bring about the chance for isolated to scattered afternoon showers today and Wednesday.

- Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period. This is still above normal temps by 2 to 3F.

- Moisture increases substantially into the late weekend, however, rain chances likely don't return until the start of next work week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Upper level low and frontal low spinning over the southeast US will continue to spread their influence to the west and southwest. This northerly fetch will keep some slightly drier air overhead. However, due to moisture in the lower levels and weakness developing aloft, scattered showers and isolated thunder will be possible through the afternoon hours.

Further weakness spreads overhead Wednesday with the upper low lifting out and trof left behind. This may result in a more scattered covering, chances will still be rather limited, though.

The associated increase in cloud cover from weakness will also assist with keeping highs somewhat in check each day. Highs in the lower 90s can be anticipated with daytime heat indices in the mid 90s.

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LONG TERM

(Friday through next Monday) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

The longterm pattern continues to confound. One round of model guidance, there's confidence and the next round, guidance diverges. This limits forecaster confidence through the end of the week.

It appears a series of weak trofs will roll through the upper Plains and Midwest as surface high meanders around the southeast US and upper longwave trof sits over the north Gulf. This pattern is not a slam dunk for one particular forecast or another. In the dead of summer when tropical moisture abounds, this would be a typical diurnal thunderstorm / seabreeze pattern. But considering the much drier airmass in place through the period, it's likely PoPs will be tamped down to less than 25 percent each day.

Northwesterly flow aloft may help usher slightly cooler air down in the region, but the uncertain pattern gives me pause that a cool down is on the way. Due to high pressure lingering nearby, best expect high temps to prevail a few degrees above normal with lower 90s to around 89F each day.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Scattered MVFR CIGs developed across the area as moisture returns to the region and weakness develops aloft. A few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop across the area this afternoon but widespread impactful thunderstorms are not anticipated.

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MARINE

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Winds and seas will generally remain low through the period. There may be brief periods of outer waters enhancing to 2 to 3 ft as easterly flow increases on passing waves. Rain chances also increase from the south later in the period as upper level patterns become a bit more active.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

A few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms will be possible today and Wednesday as weakness develops aloft within a semi moist airmass. Daytime minimum RH values in the 40 to 50 percent range can be expected today and Wednesday. Drier air works its way down the column on Friday dropping daytime minimum RH values to around 35 to 40 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 93 69 93 68 / 20 10 20 10 LCH 92 72 90 71 / 20 10 30 10 LFT 91 71 90 69 / 30 10 30 0 BPT 92 72 91 72 / 20 10 20 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.