textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated rain chances continue through Monday as a weak frontal boundary interacts with deep tropical moisture.

- Storms will be capable of high rainfall rates that could lead to nuisance street flooding.

- Below normal temperatures expected through much of next week as a series of weak frontal boundaries pushes through the region and reinforce a drier/cooler atmosphere.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

An active pattern can be expected for the duration of the short term period. Currently, there is a boundary stretched along the Gulf Coast that is expected to remain nearly stationary until it slowly works south, further into the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday.

For today, we can still expect isolated to scattered showers, especially along the coast and across SETX, where very high moisture values lie. Yesterday evening's PWAT came in at 2.16 inches, which is just above the 90th percentile, and particularly in the aforementioned areas, forecast PWATs are in the 2.1 to 2.4 inch range. The one benefit we will see from rainy and cloudy days will be cooler daytime temperatures. Minimum temperatures will run a bit higher; however, maximum temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than the climatological normals.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

For nearly the entirety of the long term period, the eastern half of the CONUS will be under the influence of an upper trough that is centered over Canada. This will assist in seeing a few weak fronts pushed through the region, though they are expected to be dry. The first one that will move through at the beginning of the long term will assist in bringing in drier air more so than cooler temperatures. While temperatures will be about the same, if not a degree or two cooler, we will see slightly cooler dew points by about 1 to 4 degrees. Additionally, rain chances will be isolated at best. The second cool front will be moving through closer to the end of the work week. While maximum temperatures will see little to no change, we will see drier air work on dew points again and slightly cooler overnight lows, especially inland.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Conditions to prevail mainly VFR through most of the 6 hour TAF period across all terminal. Plume of scattered showers / storms slowly migrating S-SE across eastern TX will allow for VCTS to begin late morning with TS becoming more likely toward 18Z and thereafter through the afternoon and early evening hours. Acadiana terminals may see scattered activity develop later into the afternoon while favorable axis of RA / TS remains over southeast Tx and lower La Coast. Note some cells of RA+ / TS may be heavy limiting VIS while over terminals.

30

MARINE

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A front that is stretched along the coast will be the focus for showers and storms for the next few days. This front will slowly move into the coastal waters Monday and Tuesday. It will continue to serve as a focus for storm development early in the work week as it does so. Winds will turn offshore through the middle of next week as the frontal boundary moves off the coast and into the Gulf waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Showers and thunderstorms can be expected for the next few days in response to a slowly advancing frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. The boundary will continue to meander near the coast before eventually moving through the Gulf waters on Monday. This will result in light northerly winds area wide through mid next week pulling some slightly drier air into the region Tuesday and Wednesday. A reinforcing frontal boundary will move through the region Thursday maintaining the drier air through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 89 68 90 67 / 20 10 20 10 LCH 89 73 88 72 / 40 20 40 30 LFT 89 72 89 72 / 20 20 30 20 BPT 88 73 89 72 / 60 30 60 30

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.