textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- A coastal low will develop on Monday ahead of another cold front and will bring a chance for locally heavy rainfall through Monday night. There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Monday into Monday night.

- A brief dry period for Tuesday into Wednesday with cold temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be possible down to the I-10 corridor Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Another frontal system and coastal low is expected to bring high rain chances at the end of the week with another chance for locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 1159 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold frontal system has moved off into the coastal waters with brisk north winds bringing much colder temperatures into the forecast area. Active southern jet remains overhead keeping a moist southwest flow aloft. Therefore, colds with occasional light rain and sprinkles will persist for the remainder of today into tonight.

An upper level trough over the Rockies will move eastward and across the Plains on Monday and through the forecast area on Tuesday. Meanwhile, old cold frontal boundary will remain stalled over the coastal waters. Increasing southerly winds above the surface will bring back highly anomalous Gulf moisture over the cold surface dome allowing clouds to hang around with an increase in shower activity by Monday afternoon.

Upper level divergence provided by a Jet streak in the southern stream will induce a coastal low to develop over the northwest Gulf. The low will travel eastward along the stalled boundary over the coastal waters. Extra low level convergence and forcing from the surface low and divergence aloft, will help focus shower activity through Monday night, ending early Tuesday as the upper level trough moves the low off to the east and ends to isentropic lift.

PWAT values by Monday afternoon are expected to be at or above 1.5 inches, which is at the 90th percentile of climo. Mean layer relative humidity values between 100H-50H is progged to be over 90 percent. Therefore, shower activity will have the chance to be highly efficient precipitation producers. Instability is expected to stay offshore, this will keep any strong thunderstorms over land, although some elevated convection can not be ruled out that may increase rainfall rates.

At this time, HREF probs show over a 70 percent chance of 1 inch of rain, 20 to 30 percent of over 2 inches, and 10 to 20 percent of over 3 inches of rainfall, with the higher amounts and probabilities from the highway 190 corridor to the south. With that, WPC has outlined those locations in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Monday into Monday night.

Drier air moving in behind the upper level trough will help clear skies during Tuesday that will set the stage for a cold Tuesday night as the surface high settles over the forecast area. At or below freezing temperatures will be possible down toward the I-10 corridor on Tuesday night.

Rua

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Surface high pressure will be sliding off to the east as the period begins helping to moderate temperatures after a cold Wednesday morning.

By Thursday, the next storm system will be moving out of the southern Rockies and across the Plains. Southerly flow ahead of this system will bring more copious amounts of Gulf moisture into the forecast area with PWAT values over 1.5 inches, which is over the 90th percentile of climo, and near 1.75 inches, getting close to max values. Jet streak around the storm system is expected to induce another coastal low over the northwest Gulf, that again looks to track just offshore through early Friday. Low level convergence, upper level divergence, and a very moist atmosphere will provide wide spread shower activity during Thursday into early Friday with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

The upper level trough will move east of the forecast area during Friday allowing for a deeper northwest flow to develop ending the rain and bringing a cool and dry start to the weekend.

Rua

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold frontal system has moved passed all the terminals with IFR conditions being noted. Frontal inversion along with northerly winds and cold air advection will help keep ceilings bordering IFR/MVFR for the remainder of the the day into Tonight.

A coastal low is expected to develop on Monday and this will bring back steady rain and keep IFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period.

Rua

MARINE

Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Brisk northerly winds will continue over the coastal waters behind a cold front into Monday. A coastal low will move across the northwest Gulf on Monday into Monday night and help to continue elevated offshore flow along with widespread shower activity. Winds will decrease slightly by mid-week and become briefly onshore as high pressure moves off to the east. Another coastal low and cold front will bring elevated offshore flow along with widespread shower activity by the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Northerly winds along with much needed rainfall will continue through Monday night. A brief dry period will occur on Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure settles in. Near freezing temperatures can be expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning down to the I-10 corridor.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 37 48 32 49 / 40 90 90 0 LCH 43 54 39 54 / 40 90 80 0 LFT 46 59 39 52 / 30 90 90 10 BPT 43 54 38 56 / 40 90 60 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455-470-472-475.