textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild weather returns briefly this afternoon before another frontal system bring about a quick round of isolated to scattered precipitation tomorrow.

- Winds will shift out of the north Tuesday by evening ushering in dry air, mild highs, and cool morning lows through Thursday.

- Dry weather will remain in place for much of the area through Friday. Fire weather will be the main concern the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

High pressure is currently situated to our east and is providing robust WAA across the region. Temperatures will be uncomfortably warm for late October, with temperatures Tuesday morning around 70 degrees along the coast and highs close to 90 degrees. Thankfully, we wont have to wait long for relief as a shortwave trough will push into the region. This disturbance is well removed from any large scale synoptic support. CAMs show a broken line of showers and storms moving across the region starting around noon and heading offshore by the evening. Digging a little deeper into the environment, CAPE values will be roughly 1000 J/Kg, while 0-6 km shear will be around 20 knots. This combo can support thunderstorms but not widespread severe weather. Close to the coast, conditions will be better for strong to severe thunderstorms, so we cant completely rule out the possibility of damaging winds. Unfortunately, rainfall will be sparse with this front, with only a tenth of an inch expected area-wide.

Behind the front, cool north winds will drop our temperatures several degrees, dropping our lows back into the 50s with highs dropping back to climatological norms.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

After the passage of the cool front, high pressure will build back in and shift to the east leading to a steady flow of southerly winds. We will see temperatures slowly start to creep back up but will stay comfortable with highs in the mid-80s. Through the rest of the work week, conditions will be dry with little to no chance for rain until Saturday.

Going into the weekend, a robust low will dig south from the Rockies, and its associated cold front will move through the region. Unlike the front early in the week, this system will have dynamic support from the closed low. While it is still too early to nail down any specifics with this system, widespread rain will be likely and provide much-needed relief from the ongoing drought.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Patchy ground fog ongoing this morning will dissipate by 13Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of a cold front moving through the area from late this morning through early this evening. Light southerly winds ahead of the front will turn northerly following it's passage. Periods of MVFR ceilings may briefly occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms and the frontal boundary, but should improve to VFR following FROPA.

Jones

MARINE

Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Steady onshore flow around 15 knots will become offshore on Tuesday with the passage of a cold front. As the line moves offshore Tuesday evening, showers and thunderstorms should be expected. Behind the front, winds will be gusting over 20 knots, and a small craft advisory will be possible on Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Even though we are not at Red Flag criteria, we have been seeing aggressive fire behavior with at least one pyro-cumulus seen in Cameron Parish earlier this afternoon.

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will bring some rain but no widespread relief from the drought conditions. Behind the front, strong north winds will drop minimum RH values to 20% on Wednesday. Winds will quickly become onshore by Thursday, and min RH values will increase to 30% then 40% by Friday. Winds are expected to remain below 10 mph. But with the widespread drought conditions, fuels are primed to burn.

Over the weekend, we will have a chance for wetting rain area-wide as a robust front moves across the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 83 49 78 47 / 60 0 0 0 LCH 88 59 80 58 / 50 10 0 0 LFT 87 59 80 54 / 40 10 0 0 BPT 88 62 81 61 / 50 10 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.