textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances return tonight into tomorrow ahead of a weak front expected to pass through Saturday.

- Well above average temperatures and elevated dewpoints will continue through the weekend into at least the first half of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Surface analysis shows a messy frontal system over the Southern Plains, while aloft a WSW flow is overhead between flat ridging to the east and troughing to the west. The frontal system will continue to slowly meander eastward across the Southern Plains and lower MS Valley today through Sat, eventually getting pushed offshore by early Sunday as a surface high takes shape over the central CONUS. Today and tomorrow, warm moist air will continue to advect inland over the forecast area ahead of this system, resulting in more unseasonably warm and humid weather with highs the low/mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. CAMs show isolated to widely scattered shower/thunderstorm activity across the forecast area periodically through the next 48 hours as moisture continues to pool overhead and the front drags across the Ark-La-Tex providing some weak support for convection.

Eventually the "cool" front moves through the forecast area Sat afternoon, allowing winds to shift to the north and advect a very small and brief shot of drier air into the region. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s Sat night/Sun morning and warm into the mid to upper 70s on Sunday, which while still above normal is a slight improvement from the temps we've been seeing. Unfortunately, just as quickly as it arrived it will disappear, with a return of warm and moist air expected as we head into the work week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Moving into Thanksgiving week, another low pressure system/cold front will be taking shape over the Plains while overhead moisture advection ramps up thanks to southwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface. Monday and Tuesday bring more abnormally warm and humid weather with highs reaching into the lower 80s. Rain chances then begin to ramp up late Monday into Tuesday as the aforementioned cold front moves across the Plains and through the forecast area. As a result, WPC as outlined part of the forecast area in a Day 5 MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall. While this will likely be modified over the coming days there is good indication that this front will bring a good wetting rain late Mon through early Tues.

On the heals of Tuesday's front looks to come another more powerful cold front that will arrive sometime Wednesday. Guidance is not in good agreement on timing with this second front, but what does seem to be agreed up is that this front will be the one to finally bring us some dry seasonal weather. NBM keeps small POPs in the forecast between the two fronts, as moisture lingers between them, with dry weather finally arriving by Thanksgiving and beyond. In addition, it looks like we will finally see temperatures return to the 60s by the later half of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Broken ceilings will waffle gradually fall from VFR/MVFR to MVFR/IFR as we head towards sunrise. Guidance has backed off considerable on fog tonight due to cloud cover which as filled in quite a bit over the last few hours. While we still could see some areas of patchy MVFR VIS especially around sunrise, fog is for the most part next expected to be an issue. After sunrise, ceilings gradually lift to MVFR and eventually VFR by mid morning, with VFR conditions and light S/SW winds continuing through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow continues through Saturday morning, followed by a brief period of offshore low late Sat through early Sun thanks to a weak frontal passage. Winds eventually turn back E Sun afternoon and SE to S by Mon. Winds become breezy with frequent gusts early next week as a couple of more potent fronts move through the region. Areas of light rainfall will be possible through the next few days, with rain chances increasing late Mon with frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Warm and humid conditions, along with very isolated rainfall, is expected through the next couple of days until the passage of a "cool front" on Sat. This front will briefly shift winds to the north late Sat through early Sun however, it will otherwise be fairly unnoticeable. Sun into early next week breezy onshore flow allows moisture to increase once again ahead of a couple more fronts that will move through prior to Thanksgiving. These fronts will be accompanied by a more wetting rain, and will be followed by a much cooler and drier airmass.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 80 64 83 62 / 0 50 50 20 LCH 80 67 82 67 / 10 30 30 20 LFT 81 68 83 66 / 0 30 40 10 BPT 82 67 83 66 / 10 20 30 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.