textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will clear the area by this evening bringing drier and seasonably cool conditions for the second half of the week.

- Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching disturbance from the west.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Surface analysis shows cold front draped across the Ark-La-Miss to the south TX coast, with the front currently bisecting the forecast area from NE to SW. Area radar shows scattered shower activity ongoing across lower Acadiana to the east of the front, while behind the front dry and mostly sunny conditions are noted. This boundary, along with the ongoing convection, will continue to slowly progress eastward this afternoon, eventually exiting the forecast area by sunset tonight. A drier airmass will slowly filter south in the wake of the front today/tonight as surface winds shift from W/NW to due N and troughing aloft builds across the center of the country.

By sunrise tomorrow a cooler and drier airmass will have arrived however, even more cooler/drier air will filter into the CWA throughout the day tomorrow as surface high pressure settles overhead. Daytime highs will top out in the mid 60s to low 70s tomorrow afternoon, while dewpoints slowly fall into the upper 30s/low 40s through the afternoon. Lows fall into the mid 30s to low 40s for Thanksgiving morning, followed by highs in the low to mid 60s for Thanksgiving afternoon amid sunny skies. It's shaping up to be a very nice holiday across the entire forecast area for any outdoor activities/gatherings.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Friday brings more dry and cool weather to end the week, with highs again warming into the low to mid 60s. Friday afternoon into Friday night, surface high pressure over the Midwest begins to shift towards the East Coast while the next low pressure system takes shape in the Plains. Moisture begins to slowly return overnight Fri into Sat, with more significant moisture return occurring throughout Saturday as surface winds become SE to S. By Sat evening/night PWATs are forecasted to be near to just above the 90th percentile, just in time for a warm front to push across the region from the west. This will of course bring increasing rain chances, first across SE TX by Saturday afternoon and then spreading east from there through the evening/overnight hours. Rain chances remain elevated throughout Sunday as a trailing cold front slowly works its way across the Ark- La-Tex.

This front will bring abnormally cold temperatures as we head into next week with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s both Mon and Tues, while overnight lows will range from the mid 30s to upper 40s. NBM keeps widespread POPs in the forecast Sun evening through Tues however, there is some indication in the long range models that we will actually dry out post-frontal passage. If that trend continues NBM should come into agreement soon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

The cold front has nearly cleared the entire area, with northerly flow behind it. Mostly clear to clear skies will prevail for the entirety of this TAF cycle with northerly flow becoming elevated tomorrow. This will taper, however near the tail end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Winds will gradually shift NW this afternoon and N tonight in the wake a cold front. Late tonight/early tomorrow north winds begin to strengthen with frequent gusts to 20-30 kts expected to persist throughout tomorrow into early Thursday. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this period for all Gulf waters. Winds relax Thursday afternoon before increasing again by early Friday, when another SCA will likely be required.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A dry airmass will slowly filter into the region this afternoon through tomorrow as a surface high settles over the central US. Min RH values will fall into the mid 30 to mid 40s tomorrow and into the upper 20 to mid 30s both Thurs and Fri. In addition, breezy north winds can be expected through the next few days. Moisture begins to quickly return by late Fri/Sat with rain chances returning throughout the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 49 64 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 53 69 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 53 69 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 53 70 43 66 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.