textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- A frontal boundary will slowly move offshore this afternoon leading to mild and slightly drier weather through Sunday before moisture and warm air advection return Monday.

- Temperatures will continue to remain well above average through Tuesday afternoon ahead of a stronger cold front and scattered rain chances.

- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures will take place in the middle of next week with winds shifting offshore through the end of the work week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Surface analysis shows a cool front draped across the Ark-La-Tex from south MO to south TX, while zonal flow is ongoing aloft. This front will slowly meander east/southeast today, moving through the forecast area around midday. Ahead of the front, warm moist air will allow for some isolated shower/thunderstorm activity to develop as it moves through the region. Behind the boundary, winds will shift NW/N and advect a slightly drier airmass into the area through the evening/overnight period. This will allow overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 50s tonight, which while still around 10 degrees above average is an improvement from the last several nights. Slightly drier air hangs around through Sunday as the front makes its way offshore, resulting in dry, mostly sunny conditions with highs reaching into the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday night into Monday, winds turn back to the east and southeast allowing for moisture to begin to ramp up once again ahead of the next frontal system taking shape over the Southern Plains. By Monday morning, said front should be draped across OK/central TX, with a warm from lifting across the northwestern Gulf Coast. As this front lifts through the forecast area on Monday it will further open the door for moisture return, with PWATs progged to surge above the 90th percentile. Monday evening into Monday night, the cold front draws closer, with rain chances steadily increasing from the west as an associated line of showers and storm approaches ahead of the front.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

By Tuesday morning the aforementioned front should be on our doorstep, with scattered to widespread showers and storms likely ongoing across the forecast area. The boundary will continue to progress eastward throughout Tuesday with rain chances gradually tapering down from west to east as it does so. While the heaviest rain/thunderstorms will taper off behind the front, overrunning stratiform rainfall is likely to linger Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning post-frontal passage as drier air is slower to arrive.

Wednesday will bring a mixed bag of conditions, as cooler and drier air slowly filter into the area throughout the day. NBM keeps small rain chances and cloud cover in place through Wed morning, with drier conditions finally arriving by the later half of the day. High temps top out in the upper 60s to low 70s, while dewpoints slowly fall through the afternoon and evening. Finally by Thanksgiving Day and beyond we can expect much more seasonal conditions with highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the mid 30s to upper 40s, as surface high pressure settles across the southeastern US.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Scattered showers are moving through offshore through the mid morning hours. Ahead of this line, areas of FG transitioning to BR will take place. VIS / CIGs will improve quickly behind the frontal boundary with slightly drier air behind. VFR conditions to take place late morning through this evening as weather clears offshore with light NW breezes.

30

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 79 48 72 50 / 10 0 0 0 LCH 82 54 75 58 / 20 0 0 0 LFT 82 53 76 55 / 30 0 0 0 BPT 82 55 77 60 / 20 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.