textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- A Marginal to Slight risk of severe storms and excessive rainfall are outlined across the forecast today

- We get a little break from the heat this week with several days of rain cooled air and cloud cover.

- High rain chances will persist through the week and into this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

An upper trough is over much of the eastern CONUS this morning while an upper low is cutting off over western Texas. A MCS is over central TX and is gradually shifting east while decreasing in intensity somewhat. A weak frontal boundary stretches from central TX across central LA into central MS.

Through the morning, the diffluent pattern aloft ahead of the developing west TX upper low may allow a few showers and storms to potentially develop along the coast and spread inland. The central TX MCS will move closer and roughly along the weak frontal boundary and be near or in the Sabine Valley around mid day or shortly after. The moist and unstable airmass may allow for an isolated severe storm during the afternoon as the line of storms moves through, but mainly in SE TX where SPC has highlighted a portion of the region as having a slight risk. The very moist airmass with PWATs at or above 2" (90th percentile and higher) will allow for very efficient rain producing storms. If any training develops amounts may stack up quickly.

By Thursday the west TX upper low will travel to north TX. The pattern aloft will remain diffluent. While the bulk of the convection will remain west of the local area, widespread afternoon convection is likely.

The upper low lifts into the central MS Valley by Friday, but a weakness aloft remains in place locally. Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are again anticipated. Some of which will be capable of very heavy rain.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A weakness aloft is expected to remain in place through the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous mainly diurnal storms are anticipated each day.

By mid week an upper ridge may nudge back in from the east. Rain chances will decrease, but the trade off will be apparent temperatures back to near heat adv criteria.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Cirrus blow over will remain next several hours in mid-upper portions of the troposphere. Surface winds will remain light and calm as VRB overnight. Few ASOS picking up on some lower SCT to BKN clouds. With periods of SKC, patches of BR may form near dawn along with brief CIG reductions toward IFR trending further inland. These limitations should improve upon sunrise. Diurnal heating expected to once again generate convective storms late morning into early afternoon of the 11th.

30

MARINE

Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Light to occasionally modest onshore flow and low seas will persist through this week. Elevated thunderstorm chances will linger through the week and the upcoming weekend which may cause locally higher winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 90 71 89 72 / 80 30 70 20 LCH 90 77 88 78 / 70 30 70 30 LFT 89 74 88 75 / 80 30 80 20 BPT 89 77 88 77 / 70 30 60 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.