textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Moisture lingers post-frontal passage while temperatures plummet due to strong cold air advection

- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are expected Saturday through Tuesday with this system, and a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place both Saturday and Monday

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Another pleasant fall morning is ongoing across the forecast area with temperatures in the 50s area-wide. Very little of note for this afternoon, as temperatures will warm up into the low to mid 60s beneath sunny skies. Surface high pressure centered near the Ark-La- Miss region this morning will gradually slide eastward this afternoon/tonight, allowing surface winds to turn SE by tomorrow morning. At the same time, a potent low pressure system dives out of the Rockies and across the Central Plains. By sunrise tomorrow low pressure should be over Kansas/Oklahoma with a warm front extending south towards the NW Gulf Coast. This front will lift NEwrd across the forecast area tomorrow, which in combination with strengthening onshore flow will bring a surge of moisture into the forecast area. Dewpoints are progged to increase from the mid 30s/upper 40s at sunrise to the upper 50s/mid 60s by the late afternoon hours, while PWATs increase from near average to near the 75th to 90th percentile through roughly the same time period.

Initially, shower activity will be fairly isolated to scattered throughout the daytime hours tomorrow, as the forecast area becomes situated in the warm sector between a warm front to our north/east and a cold front back to the west. Tomorrow the best chance for daytime convection is expected to be across interior SE TX and CENLA, with very isolated chances elsewhere. Moving into tomorrow night things begin to ramp up as the cold front dives across the Ark- La-Tex and into the forecast area. A Marginal Risk for both Excessive Rainfall and severe weather will accompany this frontally passage for the entire forecast area excluding lower Acadiana. These strongest storms will likely move into SE TX post-sunset but prior to midnight, spreading SE from there overnight into Sunday morning.

By 12Z Sunday the cold front will likely be in the lower Acadiana region, exiting to the east through the morning hours. This will allow rain chances to taper down through Sunday morning however, we won't completely dry out post-frontal passage as moisture lingers thanks to a persistent zonal flow aloft. This will bring sort of a mixed bag of conditions on Sunday, as CAA ramps up but moisture lingers. Highs will only warm into the mid/upper 50s across our northern zones, while along and south of I-10 temps should reach into the low to mid 60s. Area-wide overcast skies and isolated to scattered showers will persist as well.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

The start of the work week brings some rather unpleasant weather as we get a lovely combination of unseasonably cool temperatures and another surge of moisture from the south. High temperatures will only reach into the upper 40s to mid 50s for majority of the forecast area on Monday, amid a persistent overcast cloud deck. In addition, rain chances again ramp up considerably as an upper level shortwave diving across the Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex pulls moisture inland, with PWATs increasing well above the 90th percentile by Mon afternoon. WPC has outlined the majority of the forecast area (excluding interior SE TX) in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Monday as a result. Rain chances should peak through the afternoon into the overnight hours, tapering off west to east as we head into Tuesday.

Finally by Tuesday morning dry air arrives! Lingering convection will taper down quickly post sunrise as an area of surface high pressure builds into the region. This will bring about a period of dry and cool weather through Wed, with highs in the upper 50s/mid 50s on Tues and mid 50s/low 60s on Wed. In addition, Tues night/Wed morning will bring the coldest temperatures of the forecast period, with widespread freezing temps expected north of I-190. Unfortunately, another round of moisture and increasing rain chances arrives by late Wed/early Thurs, with at least modest rain chances lingering through Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

TAFs are mainly a wind forecast through the next 24 hours, as VFR conditions prevail. Breezy east winds today with occasional gusts will relax slightly with sunset, remaining around 5-10 kts overnight. Tomorrow, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten overhead as winds shift SE and become strong and gusty around the end of the TAF period. A few scattered showers will be possible near AEX tomorrow morning as well.

MARINE

Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Breezy winds with frequent gusts along with seas around 3-7ft will continue through the weekend into early next week. Easterly winds will shift SE tomorrow ahead of a cold front that will pass through Sat night/Sun morning. Winds turn N to NE behind the front and remain out of the north through Tuesday. A SCA is current in affect for the outer coastal waters through 00Z followed by an SCA for all zones through 00Z tomorrow. Thereafter winds/seas may dip below SCA criteria for a bit tomorrow night before increasing again Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Dry conditions prevail today, with moisture returning tonight through tomorrow ahead of strong cold front that will arrive tomorrow night. Tomorrow pre-frontal passage breezy SE winds will allow dewpoints to increase into the mid 50s to low 60s through the afternoon. Winds shift to the north/northeast Sunday morning post-frontal passage and remain somewhat breezy and out of the north through early next week. However, even with offshore flow moisture will linger post-front with frequent shower activity expected Sun through early Tues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 41 68 43 55 / 30 50 90 40 LCH 48 73 51 61 / 10 40 80 50 LFT 44 72 53 60 / 0 20 70 60 BPT 54 75 51 61 / 20 40 80 40

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM CST Saturday for GMZ450-452-455.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CST Saturday for GMZ470-472-475.