textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will move across late tonight and early Sunday with possibility of strong thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. There is a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall. - A cold, brisk, and cloudy day can be expected behind the front on Sunday.

- A coastal low will develop on Monday ahead of another cold front and will bring a chance for locally heavy rainfall through Monday night. There will be a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1157 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A series of upper level disturbances moving overhead this afternoon will allow for mostly cloudy skies with an occasional sprinkle.

Mid level trough across the Plains will dip down to the southeast and push a strong Canadian cold front across the forecast area during the overnight hours tonight and very early on Sunday. Low level southeast flow is expected ahead of the front to allow some destabilization of the low layers along with an increase in Gulf moisture.

PWAT values by tonight are expected to be at or above 1.5 inches, which is over the 90th percentile of climo, with mean layer relative humidity values above 80 percent. Overall forcing is not the greatest but should be enough to get showers and a few thunderstorms going. With some modest mid level shear and lapse rates, some strong storms may get going over southeast Texas into western Louisiana and there is a Marginal Risk for severe storms in that area tonight.

If strong thunderstorms can develop they will be highly efficient rainfall producers, but limited instability may keep that in check. Southeast Texas will have the best chance of seeing the higher rainfall amounts with HREF probs showing a 20 to 30 percent chance of over 3 inches and a 10 percent chance of over 5 inches. Therefore, a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall will be outlined for portions of southeast Texas tonight for mainly urban poor drainage area type flooding.

Brisk north winds behind the front on Sunday will bring down much cooler air. Southwest flow will continue aloft keeping skies on the cloudy side with occasional light rain.

As an upper level trough digs down out of the Plains on Monday, a coastal low is expected to form over the northwest Gulf and move just along or off the coast through Monday night. Southerly flow will increase aloft bring a decent amount of Gulf moisture over the cooler surface conditions providing over-running shower activity. Surface instability is not expected as the surface low is not expected to move inland, however elevated instability and favorable lapse rates will allow a few elevated thunderstorms to develop. Once again high moisture content with PWAT above 1.5 inches and above the 90th percentile to go along with mean layer relative humidity over 80 percent. So a good soaker expected with some locally heavier rainfall amounts and therefore a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall will be outlined again on Monday into Monday night.

Rua

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Another Canadian cold front will move across the forecast area on Tuesday as the coastal lows moves off to the east. Drier air will move ending rain chances through mid week.

With expected mainly clear skies and light winds on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as high pressure settles over the region, rather cold temperatures are forecast with freezing conditions down to near the I-10 corridor.

A repeat for later in the week with another Canadian cold front surging to the south with a coastal low developing over the northwest Gulf that may bring another bout of locally heavy rainfall during the Thursday-Friday period.

Rua

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions currently across the forecast area with mainly mid and high level cloudiness along with occasional light rain showers from an upper level disturbance. A strong cold front will move through during the overnight hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front between 30/06z-12z time frame.

Behind the front, brisk north winds are expected to develop. Frontal inversion will trap moisture with IFR to MVFR conditions along with light rain and mist through Sunday morning.

Rua

MARINE

Issued at 1136 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Moderate onshore winds will continue into tonight along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will move into the coastal waters on Sunday morning with brisk north winds behind bringing the probability of small craft advisory conditions. Elevated offshore winds will continue into Monday with high rain chances as a coastal low moves across the northern Gulf.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1133 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A strong cold front will move across tonight into early Sunday bringing a high chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will much needed rainfall. Much colder and brisk winds are expected on Sunday with another high chance for rain on Monday as a coastal low develops and moves across the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 44 56 37 49 / 80 60 50 90 LCH 54 63 44 56 / 80 80 50 80 LFT 54 61 45 59 / 60 70 40 70 BPT 52 62 44 56 / 80 70 40 90

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ450- 452-455-470-472-475.