textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- An upper level low will move a cold front across Tuesday afternoon and night with showers and thunderstorms likely. There will be a potential for some strong storms with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Minor coastal flooding will be possible through early Tuesday morning, with tide levels up to 1.5-1.8 feet above mean higher high water expected.

- Temperatures will be more seasonable behind the front with a secondary upper level disturbance bringing a chance of showers on Thursday.

- A cold front with more of a Canadian origin will move through at the end of the week bringing chilly night time temperatures for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

(Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Water vapor imagery and evening upper air analysis depict weak upper- level ridging pushing off to our east tonight. A strong upper-level trough is currently centered over the western High Plains, with an associated surface low analyzed over western Kansas and a cold front extending southward through the Texas panhandle. These features will move eastward over the next day and will be the main focus of the short term period.

Southeasterly flow is well established over our CWA between this approaching frontal system and a broad surface high currently centered off the Atlantic coast. This flow has allowed rich Gulf moisture to advect over the area, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. A few light showers are still ongoing over southeast Texas, but these have remained weak owing to a strong cap at 750 mb evident on the 00z KLCH RAOB. Expect shower activity to gradually weaken overnight.

This southeast flow will also result in some minor coastal flooding with tonight's high tide cycle, with latest guidance showing water levels reaching up to 1.5-1.8 feet above MHHW. A coastal flood advisory has been issued until tomorrow morning to account for this threat.

Upper forcing from the approaching trough will begin to arrive Tuesday morning, as winds begin to turn more southerly with the cold front approaching. CAMs indicate the development of isolated showers and a few thunderstorms in the warm sector by early afternoon as instability builds, though confidence in the extent and strength of this activity is low. The cold front itself will be accompanied by a line of thunderstorms and will sweep across the area in the late afternoon through early overnight hours.

Parameters continue to look favorable for a few of these storms to become strong to severe, particularly along the cold front. The better forcing and shear will remain displaced to the north, but should be enough for some storm organization over our CWA with guidance depicting 0-6 km shear values around 30 kt. While destabilization will be limited by cloud cover, sufficient instability for some stronger updrafts should develop, with HREF mean SBCAPE getting up to 1000-2000 J/kg in advance of the front in the afternoon. The strength of any pre-frontal warm sector activity will generally be limited by weak CAPE, but if any stronger storms are able to develop, the environment would be favorable for updraft rotation with the more backed surface winds causing an increase in low-level helicity, which would bring the potential for damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado. The shear profile generally becomes more unidirectional as the front approaches, which will yield more of a damaging wind threat along the front itself, but a spin-up weak tornado still can't be entirely ruled out as several models do show some low- level hodograph curvature. Severe potential will decrease as the front moves into Acadiana in the late evening hours with instability waning. Accordingly, SPC has highlighted areas northwest of a Cameron-Lafayette line in a marginal risk (level 1/5) of severe weather for both wind and tornado threats.

Aside from the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall may also be a concern given the anomalously moist airmass. LREF mean PWAT exceeds 1.8 inches along the front, which would be 95th percentile relative to climatology, and model soundings depict warm cloud layer depths approaching 14 kft. Dry antecedent conditions and storm motions greater than 20 kt should tend to limit the flash flood threat, but with mid-level flow parallel to the moisture axis along the front, some training may be possible that would locally enhance rainfall totals. WPC maintains a marginal risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall for the entire CWA for Tuesday. NBM mean QPF is around 0.5 to 1.25 inches for most of the area, with higher values further north, though localized totals in excess of 2 inches will be possible.

Northwesterly flow and a much drier airmass will spread into the area on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front, with afternoon highs about 5 degrees lower than Tuesday's values. This trend will be short-lived, however, with southerly flow expected to return at some point Thursday and bring a return of warmer temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s. A passing upper-level wave may interact with this moisture to produce scattered showers Thursday night into Friday, but there is substantial model disagreement between models in terms of timing and intensity of this moisture and/or any upper disturbances.

By the start of the weekend, an upper-level trough and associated surface low will push through the Midwest, which looks to send a cold front south through the Mississippi Valley and through our CWA late Friday. While rain chances do not look too impressive with this system at the moment, it does look to bring a more substantial cooling trend. Uncertainty is high at this lead time, but current guidance has lows dipping into the 40s across the CWA by the start of next week, with perhaps even some 30s for central LA.

64/Silas

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Mostly IFR to MVFR ceilings are anticipated this morning, however ceilings will lift to mostly VFR by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will move across the region late morning through early evening which may cause periods of lower vis and ceilings and gusty winds. SE winds this morning will veer SW behind a broken line of storms.

MARINE

Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Southeast flow around 5-15 kt will turn more southerly Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front, along with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. The front will cross the coastal waters Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning and will be accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms, particularly further west where some of the storms may be strong. A period of 5-15 kt northerly flow will then set up in the wake of the front through Wednesday, before light onshore flow returns for the end of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A warm and humid airmass remains in place with light southeast flow. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible during the day Tuesday before a cold front brings a line of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong, across the CWA Tuesday afternoon and evening. Chances for a wetting rain (greater than 0.25 inches) increase from south to north, ranging from 10 percent for lower Acadiana to 90 percent for central Louisiana. In the wake of this system, a slightly drier airmass will settle into the region, with afternoon minimum RH around 45-55 percent.

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for LAZ073-074-241-252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ615-616.

GM...None.