textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- A coastal low will develop on Monday ahead of another cold front and will bring a chance for locally heavy rainfall through Monday night. There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Monday into Monday night.

- A brief dry period for Tuesday into Wednesday with cold temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be possible down to the I-10 corridor Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Another frontal system and coastal low is expected to bring high rain chances at the end of the week with another chance for locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The rest of tonight will be cold and breezy as the cold front from yesterday remains offshore. Aloft a strong jet at 250 mb will keep us in a generally unstable pattern with overcast skies and light rain.

Aloft an upper level trough will move across the Rockies and will pull more Gulf moisture into our area. PWAT values will rise into the 90th percentile with high RH content in the low and mid levels. If this sounds similar to the rain event on Saturday you would be right! This is basically a repeat with the complication of that a surface low is expected to form along the coast due to difluence from an upper-level jet. With the additional convergence from the stalled cold front we can expect more widespread heavy rain Monday through Tuesday. Rainfall totals are expected to be between 1 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts. We do have a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for Monday.

A second cold front will move across the region late Monday night and should be offshore by Tuesday morning. Behind the front more cold dry air will cause our temperatures to plummet. By Tuesday night lows will be below freezing north of I-10 with lows in the mid 30s down to the coast.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

By the middle of the week post frontal high pressure will bring clear skies and a break from the active weather. But that break will be short lived as a the next low pressure system will be moving off the Rockies. This system will pull warm moist Gulf air north, driving up PWATs and RH levels setting us up for more heavy rain. WPC has placed us under a Marginal ERO on Thursday. The rain event on Thursday and Friday still has a lot of questions but the main threat looks to be heavy rain.

Temperatures through the end of the week will be near normal with highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Widespread rain is anticipated today. This will produce low ceilings and vis through late this evening. Rain will exit tonight, however IFR ceilings will continue through the end of the period. NE winds will back north tonight and become gusty.

MARINE

Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all of our coastal waters as strong cold air advection behind the front continues. There will be a short break from the wind Monday afternoon until the next cold front moves offshore causing north winds around 20 knots and gusts of 25 knots. A second small craft advisory will be in place late Monday night until Tuesday afternoon. Altimeter data has lined up well with model guidance with wave heights between 5 and 6 feet in the outer waters and 2 to 4 feet in the inner coastal waters.

With low tide on Tuesday we could need a low water advisory as water levels will drop between -0.5 to -1.0 feet below MLLW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Multiple rounds of wetting rain has helped drop our KBDI values from 700 to below 500 across the CWA. We will have a period of dry weather on Tuesday before the next round of heavy rain on Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 47 34 49 27 / 90 90 0 0 LCH 53 40 53 36 / 90 90 0 0 LFT 57 40 51 33 / 80 100 10 0 BPT 53 39 56 38 / 90 80 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ430-432-435-436- 450-452-455-470-472-475.