textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered precipitation chances remain the forecast today ahead of a weak front expected to pass through Saturday.

- Well above average temperatures and elevated dewpoints will continue through the weekend into at least the first half of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Upper air analysis shows a deep low near the Four Corners region that has started to lift north. Over the Gulf Coast, winds aloft are mainly zonal, with slight ridging aloft, which will limit the amount of dynamic forcing available to thunderstorms. In addition, upper air soundings continue to show a subsidence inversion aloft but higher and less pronounced than the previous few days. With less of a cap and less dry air aloft, we wont stay completely dry this weekend as the cold front associated with the low pressure system will cause showers and even an isolated thunderstorm or two for southeast Texas. Ahead of the front, convergent wind at the surface will cause scattered showers across southwest Louisiana, while the line of showers wont pass through until midnight on Saturday.

Behind the front, cooler air will filter in, but the main change will be in drier air, with dew points dropping from the 70s down into the 50s. Unfortunately, temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Even more unfortunate, high pressure remains centered off the Florida coast and will begin to push warm, moist air back into Louisiana on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The forecast for Thanksgiving week looks fairly active, as a second low-pressure system and cold front will impact the area. At this point, forecasting these frontal passages feels a bit like a bait and switch, as timing continues to move back and rainfall totals are reduced with each forecast cycle. As the front approaches, southern flow will increase with the pressure gradient, with temperatures reaching the low 80s on Monday and Tuesday. Dew points will also increase back into the 70s on the same days. The front should move through on Tuesday evening, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms. The WPC has placed us under a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) as Precipitable Water (PWATs) will be above the 75th percentile, with model soundings showing a long, skinny CAPE profile. Area-wide, we are likely to see around 0.50 inches of rain, with some pockets of 1.5 to 2 inches of rain. While this wont be a drought buster, it will hopefully put a dent into some of our rainfall deficits. With this front, some of the AI models are hinting at a severe threat, but a conditional one at best with the current setup. Of course, if the low tracks farther north, as is typical during La Nina events, then rainfall totals will be lower, along with the overall chance for rain.

After the passage of the front, cool, dry air will filter in, and by Thanksgiving Day, we will have pleasant weather with highs in the upper 60s and low dew points.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Patchy fog and low ceilings impacted sites longer than expected this morning, but daytime heating and mixing have caused the fog to burn off and cloud decks to rise. This afternoon, we will see isolated showers develop across the region, but the main impact will be overcast to broken skies. Overnight, clouds will descend to MVFR/IFR levels. We could also see areas of patchy fog, but elevated winds should reduce the amount of dense fog across the region. Near midnight, a broken line of showers will move across the region with a PROB30 in the forecast for the overnight hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

ASCAT shows a large swath of onshore 15-knot winds in the outer coastal waters, with 20-knot winds farther out in the Gulf. The altimeter shows wave heights a foot higher than guidance, so we bumped up our seas to be between 2 and 4 feet.

Tonight, a weak front will move offshore, causing winds to become E-NE for Saturday. This front will quickly fade away, and onshore flow will return by Sunday night. Going into Monday, another front will approach the region, and winds may increase above 20 knots with the front. Rain chances remain near zero until Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Hot and humid weather continues, with a few bright spots for rain tonight and again on Monday and Tuesday. Areas of severe drought (D2) have been declared across parts of Acadiana and southeast Texas, with KBDI values approaching 700 in those areas as well. Despite the dry conditions, low winds and high Relative Humidity (RH) values have limited the threat of fire weather for the County Warning Area (CWA). Minimum RH values are expected to be above 40 through the week, with a max RH return of 100 percent expected each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 64 79 49 73 / 20 10 0 0 LCH 67 81 56 76 / 30 20 0 0 LFT 67 81 56 76 / 20 20 0 0 BPT 67 81 56 76 / 30 20 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.