textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions will continue each day today through Saturday as a series of low pressure systems develop over Texas and the southern plains.

- A Wind Advisory and Coastal Flood Advisory are in effect through this evening/tonight and again from Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

- The next significant rain chances will be over the weekend with a strong cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Wednesday afternoon surface analysis shows strong low pressure near Iowa/Nebraska, with a cold front draped from the low towards the Rio Grande Valley. Ahead of this front, a tight pressure gradient is in place across much of the Ohio and lower MS Valley region, resulting in very strong winds and a large swath of Wind Advisories from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. Across the forecast area, frequent gusts in the 20-40 kts range have been ongoing since this morning, and are expected to persist through sunset. Therefore, decided to extend today's Wind Advisory through 10PM tonight across the entire forecast area. Otherwise, warm, humid, and cloudy conditions are ongoing and will continue into tonight, with lows only falling into the lower 70s, roughly 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms.

Tomorrow and Friday look to be pretty much a rinse a repeat of today's forecast with more warm, humid, and breezy weather on tap. The aforementioned surface low will eject off towards the Great Lakes tonight and eventually towards New England by Friday, while the cold front will gradually stall and become draped west to east across the center of the country. Several weak surface lows are expected to develop along the front through the end of the week, keeping the pressure gradient overhead tight and in turn winds remain elevated overhead. Cloudy skies and relatively dry weather continue tomorrow, while low end rain chances return to the forecast on Friday, mainly for the northern half of the area. Otherwise, temperatures remain well above seasonal norms with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower 70s.

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LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Heading into the weekend, our next more potent storm system arrives on Saturday and slowly moves through the area eventually exiting off to our east by Sunday afternoon. Early Sat, another cold front dives out of the Plains and towards the Ark-La-Tex, absorbing what remains of the previous stalled boundary as it does so. Rain chances will begin to increase across the NWrn parts of the CWA by early Sat morning, with showers and storms then spread east/southeast through the afternoon and into the overnight hours. This front looks to be rather slow moving on Sat, with many areas likely seeing a few to several hours of steady rainfall. Therefore, WPC has outlined nearly the entire forecast area (excluding the immediate coastline and St. Mary Parish) in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Saturday. In addition, some of these storms will have the potential to become severe, with SPC including parts of CENLA in the Day 4 Enhanced Risk and the remainder of the forecast area in the Slight Risk for severe weather. With unseasonably warm, moist air overhead ahead of the approach front, all modes of severe weather look possible at this time.

Saturday night into early Sunday, convection begins to taper off across the northwest and western parts of the CWA, while the remainder of the region will likely still see at least scattered showers and thunderstorms into Sunday morning behind the cold front. Eventually, drier air begins to work its way down into the area throughout Sunday, allowing linger precip to taper off through Sunday afternoon. While dry air lags and rain continues, cold air will arrive quickly post-frontal passage, with temps falling rather substantially Sat night into Sun morning. The combination of colder air and linger rain/cloud cover will result in below average highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Sunday, and overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The remainder of the long term will consist of seasonal conditions as post-frontal high pressure settles overhead. Mostly sunny skies, dry conditions, and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s can be expected Mon through Wed.

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AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Windy conditions to continue. Ceilings will be MVFR to IFR tonight and gradually lift after sunrise. Periods of VFR ceilings around 4Kft may occur in the afternoon before lowering again around sunset.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

South winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots will continue through the remainder of the work week, with Small Craft Advisories continuing area-wide as a result. Seas will build in response to between 4 and 10 feet. Areas of patchy marine fog will be possible tonight, but should not become an issue to mariners. Heading into the weekend, strong, gusty winds will persist as a cold front approaches the region, with winds eventually relaxing and shifting NW as the front moves across Sat evening through Sun morning. This front will be accompanied by heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 72 88 72 88 / 10 10 10 30 LCH 73 84 73 84 / 0 0 10 10 LFT 73 85 74 85 / 0 0 0 10 BPT 73 85 74 84 / 0 0 10 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ073-074-241-252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455-470-472-475.