textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing cloud cover and overnight winds will both somewhat limit fog potential during next few days.

- Precipitation chances return late tonight into Friday ahead of a weak front expected to pass through Saturday.

- Well above average temperatures and elevated dewpoints will continue through the weekend into at least the first half of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1215 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Sfc analysis indicates the expected frontal system this weekend is beginning to take shape in west Texas. Upper level forcing will swiftly lift and eject across the central Plains, pulled along by anticyclonic flow around the southeast ridge. Because of this, the front will near, but won't be able to pass through until perhaps Saturday when upper troffing can shift the high off its pedestal into Sunday.

Rain chances may return as early as overnight tonight in response to low level nocturnal jet interactions. However, the best rain chances will be seen by Lower Acadiana in early Friday AM hours, and perhaps inland Southeast Texas counties when the prefrontal line does attempt to move in. Not anticipating a great flood or severe risk on either Friday or Saturday. Most areas will be lucky to receive measurable rainfall in the short term.

Warm, well-above-normal temperatures set to continue into Saturday.

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LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Any relief in temperatures possibly brought on by the weak cool fropa will be seen Sunday thru Tuesday with highs knocked down into the upper 70s. Flow quickly returns to the south ahead of the next expected frontal upper trof and frontal system. Guidance currently brings a much more robust frontal system thru the region Tuesday and again Wednesday with much cooler temps for Thanksgiving. However, due to the poor performance of weather models these past weeks, forecaster confidence is very low that this outcome will come to pass.

That being said, there are indications that a cold air plunge is expected any time now. Could it arrive for a chilly Thanksgiving? It's not impossible, and actually, it is preferred! Continue to monitor the forecast for updates to the coming Thanksgiving.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Scattered cloud cover and southerly winds prevail, the continuation of this persistent pattern. A frontal system developing to the west will result in gradually increasing wind speeds thru Saturday, keeping flow up during overnight hours. This may help to limit fog development, but likely the subsequent falling of heights could produce very low cloud cover and trap a layer of dense fog at the sfc. Thus, 1/2 SM fog was included in area TAFs from late tonight into 15Z Friday AM. Conditions to improve thereafter.

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MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Periods of breezy to moderate onshore flow will prevail over much of the period with winds only turning offshore around the start of next work week with the passage of a cold front system.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Mild, humid conditions and southerly winds to prevail. Winds and temps may shift to the north and fall into the upper 70s for northern areas as a cool front attempts to break into the region on Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers may come in attendance with this front, but widespread wetting rainfall is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 80 64 83 62 / 0 50 50 20 LCH 80 67 82 67 / 10 30 30 20 LFT 81 68 83 66 / 0 30 40 10 BPT 82 67 83 66 / 10 20 30 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.