textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and cooler conditions for the rest of the of the week. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching disturbance from the west.

- Another round of unseasonably cool weather to return at the beginning of the next work week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The cold front yesterday has finally exited the area and is now off the coast with a reinforcing cold front, currently entering the ArkLaTx area, expected to arrive in the area later this morning. Cooler and drier air will fill in behind that front, with temperatures expected to be at to 10 degrees below climatological normals for this time of year. There is a chance of a Wind Advisory being necessary across parts of CenLA and for the Counties and Parishes along and south of the I-10 corridor. With the current forecast conditions shy of the threshold, one will not be issued at this time.

The main focus of the short term will be overnight temperatures, specifically on the night of Thanksgiving into early Friday morning, when we are expecting the coolest temperatures of the week. In louisiana, there is a 0-20 percent chance of seeing subfreezing temperatures along and south of HWY190. Across interior SETX and CenLA, there is a 20 to 50 percent chance.

The surface high pressure will move eastward out of the North/ Central Plains Thursday into Friday, then into the Midwest over the daytime hours on Friday. This will lead to easterly, then eventually ESE winds and slight moisture return from Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A pattern change can be expected for the long term with showers likely to return and remain for the better part of the long term. This will be kicked off thanks to return flow as the surface high makes its way to the Mid Atlantic Coastline this weekend. Along with that, another trough will be progressing into the central CONUS. Southerly flow will be elevated and gusty as a tightened pressure gradient forms in between the two. While it is too early, and far too uncertain, to discuss hazardous weather probabilities, it will not be out of the realm to see some strong storms and heavy rain Saturday into Sunday. PWATs are forecast to be AOA the 90th percentile ahead and along a warm front, with a cold front trailing it through the region. This will be watched to see how it evolves over the coming days.

The aforementioned cold front will move through the area with below climo norm temperatures likely to persist from the beginning of the next work week into the end of the long term. Highs will be in the lower to upper 50s, with lows dropping into the 30s and 40s. PoPs linger in the forecast during that time frame as well with high uncertainity in the forecast. Some model guidance depicts a weak coastal trough forming over the S TX Gulf on Monday, however guidance quickly splits after that, with some models placing the low with ridiculously high moisture content directly south of the CWA, and others placing it south of the FL Panhandle. This will play a role in if and how much precip we recieve in the first few days of that work week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Light northerly to calm winds prevail behind the front with mostly clear to clear skies. We will see winds pick up and become gust over the day, however this will taper over the evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Late tonight/early tomorrow north winds begin to strengthen with frequent gusts up to 30 kts expected to persist throughout tomorrow into early Thursday. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this period for all Gulf waters. Winds relax Thursday afternoon before increasing again by early Friday, when another SCA will likely be required.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A dry airmass will continue to filter into the region as a surface high settles over the central US. Min RH values will fall into the mid 30 to mid 40s today and into the upper 20 to mid 30s both Thurs and Fri. In addition, breezy north winds can be expected through the next few days. Moisture begins to quickly return by late Fri/Sat with rain chances returning throughout the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 76 49 63 36 / 10 0 0 0 LCH 80 53 68 42 / 30 0 0 0 LFT 81 53 68 40 / 50 0 0 0 BPT 80 53 70 43 / 10 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.