textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and cooler conditions prevail for the rest of the of the week. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Another round of unseasonably cool weather to return at the beginning of the next work week, along with lingering rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday night) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Surface analysis shows a pair of cold fronts draped across the east/southeast US, with the first one well offshore and the second weaker one currently overhead, while strong high pressure building over the Plains behind these fronts. Aloft, deep low pressure is near the Great Lakes with the trough axis nearly overhead. Scattered high clouds continue to stream across the forecast area this morning along the base of this trough, beneath a cooler and drier airmass at the surface. Upper level low pressure will eject east towards New England this afternoon/tonight, allowing a dry NW flow to develop aloft effectively clearing out the remaining cloud cover. At the surface, high pressure in the Plains will build south this afternoon/tonight, allowing breezy north winds to gradually relax. Surface high pressure will then remain overhead through Friday, allowing seasonal temps and dry weather to prevail. Temperature wise, we will warm up into the mid 60s to low 70s this afternoon, before falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s tonight. Tomorrow and Friday, highs will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Friday morning lows will dip into the low/mid 30s across CENLA and into the upper 30s/low 40s elsewhere, thanks to clear skies and light winds.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Enjoy the dry weather while its here, as moisture return ramps up quickly as we head into the weekend. Surface winds turn SE by Sat morning and begin to ramp up as the forecast area becomes situated between strong high pressure over the Carolinas and an area of strong low pressure/a cold front near west OK, tightening the pressure gradient overhead. As a result, moisture begins to surge into the region from the SW, with PWATs increase from near the daily mean (~0.82") early Sat morning to above the 90th percentile (~1.48") by Sat evening. This will of course bring increasing rain chances, first across SE TX by Saturday morning and then spreading east from there throughout the daytime hours. Saturday evening through Sunday morning rain chances ramp up further as the aforementioned cold front in the Plains rushes south, crossing the forecast area Sunday morning. WPC has outlined our forecast area in a MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall with this convection, as there will be an prolonged period of rainfall and plenty of moisture to work with.

While the front moves through Sunday morning, models continue to diverge on if we will dry out at all post frontal passage. The Euro still wants to bring a quick period of dry weather on Sunday with a return of moisture on Monday, while the GFS keeps overrunning moisture in place post-frontal passage throughout Monday. NBM continues to lean towards the wetter solution, keeping at least 30- 50 POPs across the forecast area Sun afternoon/night. What's clear is that moisture will be elevated Mon-Tues with elevated rain chances lingering throughout this period. In addition, this front will definitely bring us some cooler air, with highs throughout early next week ranging from the low/mid 50s to low 60s at best.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Gusty north winds will continue through sunset this evening, followed by N/NE winds around 5-10 kts through the remainder of the period. A few high clouds will continue to stream along the coast through the afternoon, clearing out by tonight. VFR conditions prevail through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Strong gusty north winds will continue into tomorrow morning as surface high pressure slowly builds into the area from the north. Winds turn more NE and relax slightly by tomorrow afternoon, with the SCA dropping to a exercise caution at 18Z tomorrow. Tomorrow night into Friday winds slowly turn more E and increase once again, with another prolonged period of SCA conditions expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1125 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Breezy north winds will continue to bring a drier airmass into the region today with dewpoints expected to fall into the upper 30s/low 40s by this evening. Very dry air then lingers through Friday with minRH values in the mid 20s to upper 30s both afternoons. Moisture then returns rather quickly late Fri into early Sat, with a prolonged period of cool but moist conditions expected Sat into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 36 60 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 42 63 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 40 63 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 44 65 42 64 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.