textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered precipitation chances remain the forecast today ahead of a weak front expected to pass through Saturday.

- Well above average temperatures and elevated dewpoints will continue through the weekend into at least the first half of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 604 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Surface analysis shows a messy frontal system over the Southern Plains, while aloft a WSW flow is overhead between flat ridging to the east and troughing to the west. The frontal system will continue to slowly meander eastward across the Southern Plains and lower MS Valley today through Sat, eventually getting pushed offshore by early Sunday as a surface high takes shape over the central CONUS. Today and tomorrow, warm moist air will continue to advect inland over the forecast area ahead of this system, resulting in more unseasonably warm and humid weather with highs the low/mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s. CAMs show isolated to widely scattered shower/thunderstorm activity across the forecast area periodically through the next 48 hours as moisture continues to pool overhead and the front drags across the Ark-La-Tex providing some weak support for convection.

Eventually the "cool" front moves through the forecast area Sat afternoon, allowing winds to shift to the north and advect a very small and brief shot of drier air into the region. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s Sat night/Sun morning and warm into the mid to upper 70s on Sunday, which while still above normal is a slight improvement from the temps we've been seeing. Unfortunately, just as quickly as it arrived it will disappear, with a return of warm and moist air expected as we head into the work week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 604 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Moving into Thanksgiving week, another low pressure system/cold front will be taking shape over the Plains while overhead moisture advection ramps up thanks to southwesterly flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface. Monday and Tuesday bring more abnormally warm and humid weather with highs reaching into the lower 80s. Rain chances then begin to ramp up late Monday into Tuesday as the aforementioned cold front moves across the Plains and through the forecast area. As a result, WPC as outlined part of the forecast area in a Day 5 MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall. While this will likely be modified over the coming days there is good indication that this front will bring a good wetting rain late Mon through early Tues.

On the heals of Tuesday's front looks to come another more powerful cold front that will arrive sometime Wednesday. Guidance is not in good agreement on timing with this second front, but what does seem to be agreed up is that this front will be the one to finally bring us some dry seasonal weather. NBM keeps small POPs in the forecast between the two fronts, as moisture lingers between them, with dry weather finally arriving by Thanksgiving and beyond. In addition, it looks like we will finally see temperatures return to the 60s by the later half of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Areas of patchy fog are occurring. Fog is generally striated into low SCT-BKN ceilings 200-500ft AGL with BKN to OVC clouds around 2000ft. IFR to MVFR conditions will remain through sunrise. Any remaining areas of fog to lift after 8AM LT, but BKN to OVC MVFR ceilings likely to stay into early afternoon with vicinity showers.

30

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 83 62 80 51 / 40 20 10 0 LCH 82 67 82 57 / 20 20 20 0 LFT 83 66 82 56 / 40 20 20 0 BPT 84 66 83 57 / 20 30 20 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...None.