textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and cooler conditions prevail for the rest of the of the week. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Another round of unseasonably cool weather to return at the beginning of the next work week, along with lingering rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A beautiful Thanksgiving morning is ongoing across the forecast area, with mostly clear skies, temps in the 50s and dewpoints in the mid 20s to mid 30s noted across the region. Surface high pressure extending from Canada to the Southern Plains will continue to build south into the forecast area today and tomorrow, keeping pleasant and dry weather in place for a bit longer. Highs warm into the low to mid 60s today and tomorrow, while lows fall into the mid 30s to low 40s tonight.

Tomorrow evening into Saturday, surface high pressure slides east towards the Carolinas allowing surface winds to turn east and eventually southeast overhead. At the same time, a potent low pressure system dives out of the Rockies and across the Plains throughout Saturday, with the forecast area becoming situated between strong high pressure to the east and strong low pressure to the west. A tightening pressure gradient between these features will allow onshore flow to strengthen throughout Sat and bring a surge of moisture into the region from the south. As moisture pools overhead and the low pressure system/cold front draw closer rain chances begin to ramp up from the west. Initially the best chance of rain on Saturday will be more to our north and west, with low end POPs over most of the CWA until the second half of Sat. By Sat evening the cold front will be surging through the Ark-La-Tex with showers and storms developing along and ahead of the boundary. Rain chances ramp up across the forecast area Sat night as the boundary moves into the region, with majority of the forecast area progged to see over an inch of rain through this period. As a result, WPC has outlined the entire CWA in a MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall, as localized flash flooding may become a concern through the overnight period especially.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

While the front moves through early Sunday, moisture will lingering in its wake through the early work week as zonal flow persists aloft. This will bring about a period of unseasonably cool and wet weather Sun through roughly the first half of Tuesday until an upper trough and surface high pressure finally bring a push of dry air. Until the dry air arrives, showers and storms will continue. Sunday, rain chances look to taper down slightly through the afternoon/overnight hours as moisture decreases slightly however, rain chances ramp up again throughout Monday into early Tuesday as a second surge of moisture arrives. At the same time, strong CAA in the wake of Sunday's front will result in high temps only reaching into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Monday and low to mid 50s on Tuesday, while overnight lows range from the mid 30s to mid 40s Sun/Mon night. Tuesday night brings the coldest temps of the period as dry air finally arrives, with a widespread freeze expected for areas north of I-190, with mid/upper 30s elsewhere. The end of the long term brings moderating temps as surface high pressure again exits to the east, followed by possibly another round of elevated rain chances by Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Mostly clear skies prevail through early tomorrow. Thereafter, VFR cloud cover will slowly build into the region from the north and west. Otherwise, only a wind forecast through the period as breezy NE winds this afternoon relax overnight and slowly turn more E tomorrow.

17

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

NE winds relax slightly this afternoon through tonight however, small craft should continue to exercise caution. Tomorrow into the weekend, winds turn E and eventually SE and steadily increase once again. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer coastal waters beginning at 6AM tomorrow, with an extended period of SCA conditions for all waters expected tomorrow night into the weekend. In addition, a cold front approaching from the west this weekend will bring an increased chance of rain Sat afternoon through early next week, with rain chances peaking Sat night/Sun morning. Post frontal passage winds become north and remain strong and gusty.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Very dry air will linger through tomorrow, with min RH values in the mid 20 to mid 30s both today and tomorrow. Sat, moisture returns quickly as breezy onshore flow develops. An approaching cold front will bring increasing rain chances by early Sat for SE TX, spreading east throughout Sat/Sat night. Rain chances continue post-frontal passage Sun through Tues and moisture lingers. While dry air won't arrive until late Tues, cold air advection will bring a much colder airmass into the region throughout Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 33 59 41 68 / 0 0 10 50 LCH 39 63 49 73 / 0 0 10 40 LFT 38 62 45 71 / 0 0 0 20 BPT 43 65 54 74 / 0 0 20 50

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ450-452-455-470- 472-475.