textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain returns to the forecast this today with an approaching cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Moisture lingers post frontal passage while temperatures plummet due to strong cold air advection.

- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are expected Saturday through Tuesday with this system, and a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in place both Saturday and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Light showers are present on radar across SETX, with some moving into CenLA. Little accumulations are expected from this, however we will see rain chances increase slightly in the afternoon. Overnight into Sunday morning, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected ahead of and along a cold front is forecast to move through. There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall today for all of SETX and parts of W LA. The front is expected to move offshore by Sunday late morning, however lingering convection will remain behind it. Isolated showers will be on tap for nearly the entire day Sunday, while a weak coastal low takes shape along the S TX coast. This will move into the area Monday ahead of an upper level disturbance. This will bring about another round of heavy rain Monday, with another Marginal Risk for nearly the entire CWA save parts of interior SETX.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The first half of the long term should be drier relatively speaking with the surge of moisture associated with the low moving off to the east and a cool high pressure dropping into TX then spreading into the rest of the Southern Plains. Well below normal temperatures will persist that Tuesday, however we will see them rebound to near normal as the high pressure moves eastward, allowing for the return of southerly flow / moisture advection. With the introduction of moisture starting Wed and going into Thu ahead of a weak disturbance, we could see rain chances return Thursday and linger into the weekend. Temperatures will start off well below seasonal normals, with highs struggling to reach into the mid 60s and lows falling into the upper 20s to upper 30. Over the late week period, temperatures will gradually rise, with MaxTs getting back to the 50s/60s and MinTs in the 30s/40s by the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS)

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the forecast period with the main concerns being elevated southerly flow strengthening in the mid to late morning hours and convection returning. Regarding convection specifically, we could see a few showers and isolated storms early this morning across parts of CenLA and SETX, however there is a line of stronger showers and storms anticipated to reach SETX around 3 to 6Z Sun before spreading south and east through the rest of the region past that point.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Breezy winds with frequent gusts along with seas around 3-7ft will continue through the weekend into early next week. Easterly winds will shift SE tomorrow ahead of a cold front that will pass through Sat night/Sun morning. Winds turn N to NE behind the front and remain out of the north through Tuesday. A SCA is current in effect for the outer coastal waters through 00Z followed by an SCA for all zones through 00Z tomorrow. Thereafter winds/seas may dip below SCA criteria for a bit tomorrow night before increasing again Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Moisture will be returning ahead of strong cold front that will arrive tonight. Pre frontal passage, breezy SE winds will allow dewpoints to increase into the mid 50s to low 60s through the afternoon. Winds shift to the north/northeast Sunday morning post frontal passage and remain somewhat breezy and out of the north through early next week. However, even with offshore flow moisture will linger post-front with frequent shower activity expected Sun through early Tues.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 60 41 68 43 / 0 20 40 80 LCH 63 48 73 52 / 0 10 20 80 LFT 62 43 72 54 / 0 0 10 60 BPT 64 53 75 50 / 0 10 20 90

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CST Saturday for GMZ450-452-455- 470-472-475.