textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and cooler conditions prevail for the rest of the of the week. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Another round of unseasonably cool weather to return at the beginning of the next work week, along with lingering rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cool and calm conditions are ongoing, with the base of high pressure centered north of the ArkLaTx. Winds are light and northerly to calm under clear skies, allowing for radiational cooling into the 30s for nearly all of the CWA, except the immediate coastline.

Today into tomorrow, the high pressure will migrate eastward toward the Mid Atlantic as a disturbance exits the Rockies into the Plains. A tightening pressure gradient will form between the two, with elevated southerly flow becoming established. This will promote rapid moisture advection into the region beginning Saturday, with PWATs rising from near seasonal norms to near the 90th percentile by that evening, then closer to daily maxima by early Sunday morning.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will begin early Saturday morning, with numerous activity likely by late afternoon as the cold front progresses closer to the region. A prolonged period of showers and storms is expected, and given deep moisture and lift, periods of heavy rainfall will be likely. As a result, WPC has placed nearly all of the CWA, except parts of Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin, in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. In addition to the flooding threat, there is also a risk of severe weather, with damaging wind gusts and hail as the main threats.

Showers will continue into Sunday, slowly tapering as the front clears the area, with light overrunning behind it. Overall totals for the 48 hour period have decreased slightly and are now around 0.75 to 1.75 inches, with probabilities of exceeding 2 inches in the 20 to 50 percent range.

Not much dry air will follow the front, however it will be cooler, not only due to the post frontal airmass, but also because cloud cover and lingering showers will limit daytime temperatures Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cooler and rainy weather will continue into the early part of the long term as another surge of moisture moves in, driven by a low taking shape off the coast of South Texas. Guidance remains split, but there is improving agreement that the low will remain offshore. This presents another chance for heavy rain, hence the Marginal Risk ERO for Monday.

The low and associated moisture are expected to be pushed eastward on Tuesday as cool high pressure builds into the Central and Southern Plains. This will drive temperatures well below seasonal normals for over half of the long term period. Lows in particular will be chilly, with near freezing temperatures Monday night, then subfreezing values Tuesday night for over half of the CWA.

Temperatures will return to near normal toward the end of the period as the surface high drifts east and southerly flow resumes. Once again, another coastal low could develop.. However, model guidance remains highly inconsistent with timing and placement. Nevertheless, rain chances appear likely Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of this forecast period, with light northeasterly winds slowly becoming more easterly, then southeasterly, over the TAF cycle. Cloud cover will gradually increase as moisture returns to the area.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Today into the weekend, winds will turn east and eventually southeast, steadily increasing once again. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer coastal waters beginning at 6 AM, with an extended period of SCA conditions expected for all waters tonight into the weekend.

In addition, a cold front approaching from the west this weekend will bring an increased chance of rain Saturday afternoon through early next week, with rain chances peaking Saturday night into Sunday morning. Post frontal winds will become northerly and remain strong and gusty.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Very dry air will linger through today, with minimum RH values in the mid 20s to mid 30s. On Saturday, moisture will return quickly as breezy onshore flow develops. An approaching cold front will bring increasing rain chances by early Saturday for SETX, spreading east throughout Saturday and Saturday night. Rain chances will continue post frontal passage Sunday through Tuesday, with moisture lingering. While truly dry air will not arrive until late Tuesday, cold air advection will bring a much colder airmass into the region beginning Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 60 41 68 43 / 0 30 50 90 LCH 63 48 73 51 / 0 10 40 80 LFT 62 44 72 53 / 0 0 20 70 BPT 65 54 75 51 / 0 20 40 80

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ470-472-475.