textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall now into tonight with additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches on top of the 0.25 to 1.25 inches we have already received.

- A brief dry period for Tuesday into Wednesday with cold temperatures. Freezing temperatures will be possible north of the I-10 Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Another frontal system and coastal low is expected to bring high rain chances at the end of the week with another chance for locally heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Light to heavy showers and very isolated storms have continued to push eastward through the CWA this afternoon with this activity expected to taper tonight into very early tomorrow morning. There is a Marginal Risk ERO covering most of the CWA today, with additional rainfall totals up to 2 inches on top of the 0.25 to 1.25 inches we have already received.

A cool high pressure will move into TX early Tuesday, center itself over the MS River Valley that evening, then center itself over the SE CONUS by early Wednesday. This will allow for southerly flow to quickly return ahead of another front that will progress towards the region Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Continuing from the short term, the front will be progressing towards us, with showers and storms spreading across the CWA ahead of it. Once again, we will have another Marginal Risk ERO with totals around 1 to 2 inches possible. There could be some stronger storms along with this, however severe weather is not expected at this time. Showers will linger into the end of the week, with a surface high building in over the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A frontal boundary presently bisecting the region will push through LCH over the next hour and through LFT and ARA by 03Z. A persistent light to moderate rain shield will continue ahead of the boundary with scattered light rain continuing in it's wake until approximately 06Z tonight. IFR ceilings will prevail this evening into Tuesday morning with the low level ceiling dissipating by late Tuesday morning. Northerly winds will increase behind the front tonight into Tuesday with gusts as high as 25 knots.

Jones

MARINE

Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Small Craft Advisory has ended, replaced by an Exercise Caution from now until tonight when the cold front moves offshore, causing north winds around 20 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. During that time, another SC.Y will be in effect until Tuesday afternoon. With low tide on Tuesday, we could need a low water advisory for Sabine and Calcasieu as water levels will drop between -0.5 to -1.0 feet below MLLW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Multiple rounds of wetting rain have helped drop our KBDI values from 700 to at or below 500 across a majority of the CWA. We will have a period of dry weather on Tuesday before the next round of heavy rain starting late Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 32 50 27 57 / 100 0 0 10 LCH 37 54 35 63 / 100 0 0 10 LFT 39 51 34 62 / 100 0 0 10 BPT 37 55 39 66 / 90 0 0 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-452-455-470-472-475.