textproduct: Lake Charles

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and cooler conditions prevail for the rest of the of the week. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with an approaching cold front/upper level disturbance from the west.

- Another round of unseasonably cool weather to return at the beginning of the next work week, along with lingering rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday Night) Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The surface high pressure currently over the Central Plains will remain the dominant feature across the region through the short term period (edited to be just today through tomorrow night), maintaining dry, cool, and stable conditions.

Clear skies and light northerly to calm winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight into Thursday morning. MinTs during that time will range from the low to mid 30s across interior portions of CenLA and parts of interior SETX, with upper 30s to mid 40s for the coastal parts of the CWA. Patchy frost will be possible in some of our northern zones, especially where winds become calm overnight. With ample sunshine Thursday afternoon, highs will recover into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

By Friday, the surface high will shift slightly eastward, positioning itself over the mid MS River Valley. This will lead to winds becoming easterly to ESE. From there, we will see a modest warming trend, though temperatures will remain near to slightly below climo norms. Cloud cover will increase through the day, helping to limit those temps from getting any higher than the mid 60s. However they will limit how low MinTs get that night, with temps only falling into the 40s with exception to 50s in coastal SETX.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A significant pattern shift will occur over the weekend as the surface high migrates toward the Mid Atlantic and a disturbance exits the Rockies into the Plains. A tightening pressure gradient will form between the two, with elevated southerly flow becoming established. This will promote rapid moisture advection into the region beginning Saturday, with PWATs rising from near seasonal norms to above the 90th percentile by that evening.

Rain chances will increase from west to east Saturday, becoming widespread by Saturday night as a strong cold front approaches from the Central Plains. A prolonged period of showers and storms is expected, and given deep moisture and lift, periods of heavy rainfall will be likely. As a result, WPC has placed nearly all of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. For the 48 hour period beginning early Saturday, deterministic amounts are in the 1.4 to 2 inch range, with the probabilities of over 2 inches in the 25 to 55 percent range. While confidence in severe weather remains low at this time, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out.

The cold front is forecast to move through the area Sunday morning, however similar to yesterday model guidance diverges regarding post frontal evolution. Some guidance introduces a brief drying trend from Sunday afternoon, while other solutions depict moisture and the front hanging up along the coast through Monday morning. There seems to be some consensus of the possible development of a weak coastal trough or low along the S TX Coast early next week, which could prolong rain chances. Due to uncertainty from the split in guidance, confidence in precip timing and coverage along with temperatures early next week remains low.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through this TAF cycle. Winds will be northerly to northeasterly around 3 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Strong gusty north winds will continue into the latter part of the morning as the surface high pressure slowly builds into the area from the north. Winds turn more NE and relax slightly by the afternoon, with the SCA dropping to a exercise caution at 18Z. Into Friday, winds slowly turn more easterly and increase once again, with another prolonged period of SCA conditions expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Breezy north winds will continue to bring a drier airmass into the region. Very dry air then lingers through Friday with minRH values in the mid 20s to upper 30s. Moisture then returns rather quickly late Fri into early Sat, with a prolonged period of cool but moist conditions expected Sat into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 60 33 59 41 / 0 0 0 10 LCH 64 39 63 49 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 63 38 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 66 43 65 54 / 0 0 0 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ450-452-455-470- 472-475.