textproduct: Lake Charles

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 354 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas of dense fog have developed overnight. Due to this, a dense fog advisory was issued for lower Acadiana which has now been expanded to include coastal Southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. This will go until 9 AM when daytime heating can mix out fog.

A rather busy forecast period is in store for the short term period. Potent system is set to cross the region later today, a notable negative tilted shortwave trof has been observed in forecast guidance. This feature will act to greatly increase localized shear overtop the region. Combined with deep surface moisture moving inland from the Gulf, there is a very present risk for severe weather.

This afternoon, expect a cluster of cells to develop across western portions of the area. Fcst bulk shear 50 knots+ spreading over the area will support supercell type structures until later in the evening when cells congeal into a line that moves east. This afternoon, all severe modes will be possible including damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. The severe risk converts to primarily a wind risk as the line moves across the region.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with low severe risk will prevail into Friday.

The next severe risk takes shape on Saturday when another potent shortwave trof moves over the Mississippi Valley. This risk will once again be primarily for wind and tornadoes due to elevated local shear and moisture. Some isolated instances of large hail will be possible. Another round of super cell type clusters are likely to develop into the afternoon before moving east late in the evening/overnight hours. Due to the trof digging slightly more to the east compared to today's trof, this severe risk will be more contained to the central and east portion of the forecast area.

Moist airmass overhead will make for very efficient rainfall rates with storms. Due to this and in combination with wet soils from previous rains, flash flooding will be possible over the entire area both today and Saturday. This will be for those areas who receive "training" rain from numerous showers/storms.

11/Calhoun

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 354 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Zonal flow develops aloft from Saturday through the start of next work week. This will keep the forecast fairly quiet through this period with warm and humid conditions to prevail.

The next big change in the forecast cycle comes on Wednesday / Thursday to end the year. There is some model agreement for a deep cutting longwave trof to dig into the deep south. This would bring about a strong push of cold air to start off 2025 at a seasonable rate.

11/Calhoun

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas of dense fog have developed ahead of a frontal system moving towards the region. Fog will dissipate after 15z when daytime mixing begins.

An active period is expected as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms spread over the region through the morning hours. In the early afternoon, storms may become strong with all severe modes possible: damaging, variable wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes. This is most probable for LCH, BPT and AEX during the afternoon and early evening hours. Storms will eventually congeal into a strong line of storms that moves east, arriving to lower Acadiana around 06z.

Expect low CIGs and variable VIS throughout the day within a deep surface moisture layer. Strong southeast winds can be anticipated away from ongoing convection.

Another round of fog is expected overnight tonight with areas of dense fog possible.

11/Calhoun

MARINE

Issued at 354 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas of cooler waters off along the Atchafalaya basin and nearshore toward SE Cameron meeting with mild, humid air is supportive for dense fog development overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for these waters through 9AM CST. Developing showers and thunderstorms will take the late morning through the overnight hours as a trof axis shifts east across the Mississippi Valley. An active weather pattern continues through Saturday, with several more rounds of rain and a few thunderstorms. The onshore flow will continue through the entire forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AEX 69 56 74 57 / 60 90 20 50 LCH 72 61 74 61 / 60 80 30 50 LFT 75 65 76 63 / 30 60 60 50 BPT 73 60 76 61 / 80 80 20 50

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ044-045- 055-073-074-152>154-241>243-252>254.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ615-616.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ430-432- 435-436-450-452-455.