textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate snow continues across far north central Nebraska early Thursday morning, with localized bands producing 1-2" of accumulation before noon.

- Additional light snow is likely in a couple rounds: one later Thursday into Friday and again on Saturday with light accumulations possible.

- After a cold morning Saturday where wind chills may threaten Cold Weather Advisory criteria (-20F), temperatures quickly moderate early next week with a return to above normal values.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Early this morning, areas of snow will diving southeast out of western South Dakota and into portions of north central Nebraska. Local DOT cameras show quick accumulations with snow covered roads, particularly in Keya Paha and Boyd Counties. Residual dry air in the lower levels is being overcome under higher intensity bands and Nebraska Mesonet plots show this well. Between stations near the Keya Paha/Cherry County border and west of Crookston, relative humidities (dew points) vary by nearly 40% (8F). Elsewhere, conditions are fairly calm with scattered mid and high level clouds. Temperatures range from the upper teens to upper 20s with the coldest values in the east.

Today, including early this morning...light to occasionally moderate snowfall should persist in its current footprint through mid- morning. This activity is driven by modest fgen and stronger low- level warm air advection (WAA) centered around h85. Isentropic analysis shows good lift of moist air on the 280K surface through about 18z (Noon CST) before waning. Local observations at KONL have shown wet bulbing in process with falling temperatures but increasing dew points. This points to increasing snowfall intensities over the next few hours. While most locations will likely near 1" of snowfall through midday, a few locations possibly will approach 2" with additional banding possible. HREF probabilities for active snowfall concurrent with < 2 statute mile (SM) visibilities show steady increases between 2-3am CST and 6am CST and this supports the idea that coverage and intensity should increase. Most if not all accumulations should conclude by 9am CST with snowfall largely dissipating heading into the afternoon. This should allow for a reasonable break in activity for the afternoon outside of occasional flurries. The dividing line between the cold east and warmer west will again split western Nebraska. With good agreement between MET/MAV guidance, utilized this blend to produce middle 40s southwest to middle 20s northeast.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 343 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Tonight through Friday Night...after the brief lull in snow, expecting another round to move in from the north and bring additional light accumulations. Moderate surface high pressure will continue to build over the Red River of the North and this will propel the stalled boundary west, up the higher terrain. This will result in weak orographic lift, particularly off the eastern slope of the Black Hills. Lift will be focused in the lower levels with drier air aloft. This should keep intensities fairly light as light snow works into our northern zones. HREF probabilities echo this thought with only 40-50% potential of exceeding a tenth or two of snowfall per hour anytime during the overnight hours. Trimmed up PoPs somewhat as a result with dry conditions largely expected south of Highway 2 prior to midnight before PoPs expand into south central Nebraska closer to sunrise Friday. Lows will vary across the area with decreases over north central Nebraska following Thursday morning snow but increases further west and southwest. This produced values near 0F in our northeast to lower 20s southwest. Though sub- zero lows appear possible, winds of less than 10 mph will preclude any wind chill concerns. With the westward push of the baroclinic zone, most of west central Nebraska should see sub-freezing highs on Friday. Approaching Arctic high pressure will settle into eastern Nebraska by later in the day and the abundant dry air will shunt most precipitation potential from central Nebraska to western Nebraska through the day. Again, citing weak lift, only light accumulations are possible with any new snowfall. Combining this with light winds, impacts to travel should be minor at worst and driven by possible slick roads. As the core of high pressure works down the Missouri Valley, timing will favor a moderately cold overnight with lows falling below 0F east of Highway 83. On top of this, increasing southerly flow as the feature departs to the southeast will drive wind chill values down. Wind chill values in the negative teens are currently forecast probabilities of falling below -15F reach about 40-70% for much of central and eastern Nebraska. Gut-feeling is Cold Weather Advisories will be needed to address this but after coordinating with neighboring offices, opted to wait another forecast package or two being Period 4.

Saturday...as high pressure settles further south into the Southern Plains, return southerly flow will strengthen and promote WAA across the region. Within a plume of mid-level moisture, light precipitation may form across our western zones during the daytime. With h85 temperatures +/1 2C of the freezing mark, precipitation type may vary across the area. Snow will be favored for the Highway 83 corridor and east while at least a rain/snow mix if not all rain is forecast to the west. Minor snow accumulations are possible but less than a half inch appears likely with NBM probabilities of the same at or below 40%. The initial push of warmer air will be the start of a warm up that lasts into next week. Highs will climb to the upper 40s in the west but hold in the middle 20s to the east.

Sunday and beyond...much warmer temperatures are expected in the mid- range as upper level ridging builds and settles into the Great Basin from late Saturday through Sunday. NBM guidance continues to advertise upper 40s to middle 50s each day early next week. A shortwave disturbance will dive southeast around Tuesday which may bring some light precipitation potential to the area but PoPs have trended down and only Slight Chance categories (< 25%) are in place for portions of the area. Near steady temperatures will continue through midweek before a more substantial warmup appears likely. NBM 25th Percentile output shows upper 50s to lower 60s for Thursday into the following weekend. This coincides with strong +2-3 sigma ridge across the Intermountain West. The area will reside on the eastern periphery of the main high pressure aloft with general downsloping flow across the High Plains. This type of setup tends to produce anomalous warmth and explains why NBM 75th percentile output is climbing to around 70F for North Platte. While it's too early to say with confidence if this were to occur, it's worth noting that a 70F day the first week of February would be the earliest occurrence of 70F at North Platte since 2020. The mild temperatures will likely continue into the middle of the month as the latest Climate Prediction Center outlook shows 60% probabilities of above normal temperatures in the 8-14 Day timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

While widespread precipitation has come to an end across the region, some lingering flurries may still exist with little impacts expected. Snow redevelops across northern Nebraska by evening with snow expected at KVTN through the overnight hours. Reductions in visibility should be anticipated due to falling snow. Wind gusts will remain under 20 knots, but even some light wind may cause some minor blowing snow as snow character remains dry and fluffy. Snow will gradually push southward through Friday reaching KLBF by sunrise Friday morning. Snow will remain light and any reductions in visibility will be minimal with accumulations up to half inch to 1 inch.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.