textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated threat of showers and thunderstorms overnight, generally expect the greatest threat to be along and east of HWY 83.

- A low end chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across the northwest Sandhills.

- The warmer, drier pattern remains through the late weekend, with highs around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Some uncertainty builds into the forecast late weekend into early next week. An approaching upper level system may bring chances for precipitation and slightly above seasonal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight into early this morning. The LLJ will strengthen and interact with the frontal boundary and potentially lingering boundaries from storms this evening, across portions of the Sandhills into north central Nebraska. The greatest threat for thunderstorms development will generally be along and east of HWY 83. Convection is expected to remain elevated, thus large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern. There will be a secondary threat of heavy rainfall and will need to continue to monitor IF and where storms develop overnight into this morning. The frontal boundary has remained almost stationary through the evening into tonight and is not expected to progress, thus if storms should develop this overnight/early morning, they may potentially move over the same locations as storms earlier this evening that have already seen heavy rainfall. However that being said confidence is low in just how much, if any convection, will develop.

As for Wednesday, weak upper level ridging will continue across the central CONUS with temperatures warming into the 90s. There is the potential to see some isolated thunderstorms develop off the high terrain and move into western Nebraska Wednesday evening. There is also the potential for isolated convection to develop overnight Wednesday into Thursday early morning as the LLJ develops overnight. Thursday afternoon should be mostly dry with highs reaching the 90s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Upper level ridging remains across the region Thursday night and throughout the holiday weekend. This will contribute to continued above average temperatures and limited precipitation potential. Ensemble guidance continues to build confidence in the dry start to the weekend, with chances for precipitation exceeding one tenth of an inch remaining less than 10 percent through at least Sunday evening. The NBM continues to suggest some lower end PoPs, generally remaining less than 20 percent, as some upper level shortwaves track through the upper level flow. This also shows well in ensemble guidance, particularly in the European ensembles, which continue to suggest a 20 to 30 percent chance of exceeding one hundredth of an inch of precipitation. In general, would expect little to no precipitation over the early weekend, and if anything were to fall, expecting it to be very light. As for temperatures, have seen a slight upward trend, especially for Friday and Saturday, as most of the region is now expected to see highs in the 90s. This would push most of the region at or above the 90th percentile compared to local climatology. In other words, unusually hot for early September, when our typical highs would be around 84 degrees. In fact, Friday and Saturday could see highs 10 to 15 degrees above our usual highs. Not too confident that we will be pushing towards record highs at this time, as records remain between 101-106. However, those with outdoor plans this holiday weekend will still want to have plans to beat the heat.

Latest forecast guidance begins to show a shift in the pattern emerging by the late weekend. Previous forecast runs were beginning to build some uncertainty in the forecast for early week, and latest guidance may begin to introduce this uncertainty as early as Sunday afternoon. While most solutions remained bullish on upper level ridging remaining across the region, there was some suggestion of a more progressive solution emerging, bringing a trough into the region a bit more quickly than expected. This latest run continues to build some steam for the more progressive pattern, potentially bringing an upper level trough across the Intermountain West as early as Sunday. If this were to occur, we may expect some stronger upper level flow to track across western portions of the region on Sunday afternoon. This would help lift a surface system across the west, potentially bringing precipitation chances as early as Sunday afternoon and evening. This has also showed a bit more strongly in ensemble guidance, which now begins to suggest higher chances for at least one tenth of an inch of precipitation Sunday evening. Whereas most of the weekend ensemble guidance suggests less than a 10 percent chance, Sunday evening, we now see a 20 to 40 percent chance across most of the region, with the European solutions even suggesting chances as high as 50 percent in some locations.

As guidance now begins to favor this more progressive solution, expecting that we may see daily precipitation chances early next week, especially as the trough is expected to lift northeast across the Central and Northern Plains. This may also favor some slightly cooler temperatures, with highs still remaining slightly above seasonal average. This would place highs generally in the mid 80s to lower 90s, but there still remains some uncertainty on how strong the remaining ridging will be, especially with a trough expected to move across the region. Will continue to monitor forecast trends for this period, especially as guidance comes into better consensus on the upper level pattern evolution.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska through Thursday morning. Light, and mostly variable surface winds will prevail throughout the day, into tonight. By this evening, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the panhandle will track to the northeast. This activity should remain west of KVTN, bringing a broken deck of mid level cloud cover overnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.