textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase today across southwestern NE into the central Sandhills, with highs from the mid 50s to near 60.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night into Friday, with 60%+ potential for seeing wetting rainfall across much of southwest Nebraska.

- Temperatures warm early next week with dry conditions before a deep upper-level low approaches from the west towards mid-week leading to low-confidence in precise extended forecast details.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A Frost Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM CDT for eastern portions of north central Nebraska, where skies will remain mostly clear, light and variable winds, and low reach 33 to 35 degrees, with areas of frost. An increase in light south winds and increasing cloudiness overnight should limit frost formation to the west.

Today, a disturbance currently over central Colorado will lift northeast this morning into the southeast panhandle and southwest, and the central Sandhills this afternoon. This will bring likely rain chances to areas mainly near and south of Highway 2 and mainly cloudy skies, with stratus persisting through much of the day. Warm air advection indicated mainly in the H7 to H6 layer with weak frontogenesis diminishing in the afternoon as the disturbance lifts northeast today. South of Highway 2, HREF probability of a tenth of an inch or more is 60 to 80 percent, with a 60 percent probability of a quarter inch or more portions of southwest Nebraska. Rain is not expected to reach portions of the northeast today. Highs only in the mid 50s southwestern areas, to near 60 northeast.

Tonight, skies clear some across the north. Another disturbance will move from eastern CO, across Kansas and far southern Nebraska. Far southwest Nebraska will maintain a slight chance for showers overnight. At this time, looks like temperatures will remain above any frost potential from 35 to around 40.

Thursday, the next system will deepen from Montana into the central Rockies. Downstream, moisture will be on the increase from the Southern Plains into western Nebraska as surface low pressure deepens across New Mexico into southern Colorado. Southeast winds will become breezy across the west by afternoon. Highs to range from the mid 60s northern Nebraska, to the upper 50s to lower 60s south. There will be low chances for showers in the morning across the south. A lead disturbance will extend from southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range by late afternoon. This will bring increasing chances for showers and few thunderstorms across the west and south.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thursday Night/Friday...by late afternoon, convection should be ongoing along the I-25 corridor from eastern Wyoming down through central Colorado. This occurs as lee troughing draws southeasterly moist flow up to the Front Range. This occurs as upper-level troughing crosses the Great Basin and approaches the Continental Divide. Within a moderately sheared environment, a narrow ribbon of modest instability should support a limited severe threat well to our southwest. As alluded to, this narrow ribbon of greater MUCAPE will not extend far east. That said, persistent advection of theta-e rich air off the surface and weak MUCAPE around 250-500 j/kg should sustain convection ahead of the main upper-level low into southwest Nebraska. Dry air does not appear to be a limiting factor, as persistent southeasterly flow will maintain 7+ g/kg mixing ratios which is near the median value of LBF RAOB climatology for late May. While light showers are favored in the evening hours, the convection originating from I-25 should begin to move into southwest Nebraska near Midnight with further expansion of convection through the early morning Friday. NBM probabilities for rainfall ramp up quickly during this timeframe: with potential for exceeding 0.10" reaching 80%+ Friday morning for much of the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska, and nearly 60-80% probabilities for exceeding 0.25" in the same timeframe for the same areas. The increased low- level moisture and ongoing precipitation is expected to hold temperatures in check and Thursday night lows have been boosted across the board as a result. Through early Friday, the main upper- level will cross the Central Rockies and begin to transition from neutral to negative tilt. Precipitation will continue through the day with ample instability to support thunderstorms. With stronger shear in place to the south, the threat for severe weather should favor western Kansas. Afternoon highs may be on the cooler side with values only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. A trailing surface trough will settle into western Nebraska by later in the day and this along with the passing trough axis will bring a swift end to precipitation west to east across the area though some wrap around moisture from the h5 low may persist across our northern zones. Behind departing precipitation, low temperatures should again fall to the lower 40s with a few locations threatening the upper 30s.

Saturday and beyond...heights build across the Central High Plains behind the exiting mid-level disturbance. Ridging will build across the Desert Southwest and cross the Rockies by early next week. This will coincide with warming temperatures as NBM guidance show median temperatures at their warmest values of the forecast period: the middle to upper 80s by Sunday and Monday. This will promote well above normal temperatures with dry conditions for much of the region. The upper pattern becomes fairly convoluted towards the middle of next week as a deep h5 low takes shape over the Pacific Northwest and settles east. Progression of this system is somewhat uncertain, with deterministic solutions varying on timing and placement of this and downstream influencing features. Because of this, confidence in extended forecast details is limited and will likely remain this way until extended guidance begins to hone in on a similar solution.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the first half of the period with degraded conditions for late morning Wednesday.

Mid and high level clouds continue to stream in to southwest Nebraska but should pose little if any impact initially. Through the night, CIGs should lower as a disturbance approaches from the west. This should lead to increasing precipitation chances and MVFR CIGs. Leaned on HREF guidance for timing into LBF terminal which favors mid to late morning. Activity should remain light enough intensity to preclude more significant impacts. Expect precipitation to depart by late afternoon with a return to VFR conditions likely.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ006-007-009- 010-028-029.