textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong storms are possible this afternoon and early evening, east of a line from Stockville through Brewster and Butte. Hail and strong wind gusts would be the main threats.

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon. Gust winds appear to be the main threat.

- Elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday and strong southerly winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Today, much warmer with highs 85 to 90. West to southwest winds across much of the area behind a surface trough. A few strong storms may initiate after 3 PM CDT near a surface trough located from Stockville through Brewster and Butte. 25 to 30 kts of deep layer shear is shown to be closely perpendicular to the surface boundary. MUCAPEs should reach 1500-2000 J/kg near and just east of this boundary. Storms will be isolated initially, becoming more scattered as they exit far eastern zones after 5 PM CDT. A few strong storms are possible, with hail and strong wind gusts the main threats. SPC outlook has a Marginal Risk of severe storms east of the surface trough. The location of the surface trough is shown to be slightly further east by the GFS and HRRR. Another favorable area as shown by the RRFS, and to a less extent the NAM12 will be across the northeastern zones, just north of the surface trough. Here, dewpoints may pool into the upper 50s with winds remaining southerly. A few supercells are possible, with discrete propagation, and could be severe. Confidence in this is below average.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will develop in the afternoon west of the surface trough. Here, warm temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 will combine with much drier air with humidity values falling into the mid and upper teens Highway 83 and west. The biggest limiting factor at this time looks to be winds, with guidance suggesting westerly winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph. Gust 25 mph or higher are unlikely.

Tonight, Any storms should be east of the area after 8 PM CDT. Surface moisture will work back to the west overnight, as dewpoints recover to the mid 40s to low 50s overnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

Monday, very warm again with highs around 90. Surface low pressure will deepen across Wyoming and Colorado as southerly winds increase to 10 to 20 mph. Dewpoints will be higher in the 50s across the southwest and east. Instability will likely exceed 2500 J/kg across the southwest and east though deep layer shear will be fairly weak near 20kts. The convective temperature should be reached and widely scattered showers and storms should develop by late afternoon. With an inverted-V sounding, gusty winds look to be the main threat.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 151 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

For Tuesday warmer conditions will persist with highs in the upper 80s. There will be some elevated fire weather concerns for areas generally west of HWY 61, especially across the northwest Sandhills where recent rainfalls have been light, generally less than a quarter of an inch across the area. Min RH values will be around 20 to 25 percent across portions of western Nebraska. Winds will then increase late afternoon onward out of the south. Winds will be around 15 to 25 mph sustained in the early afternoon, becoming around 20 to 30 mph sustained by mid afternoon. Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible, with the strongest winds generally across the central Sandhills and western Nebraska.

An upper level closed low moves onshore Tuesday and will sit across the SW CONUS for a couple days before it moves out, with models differing on the movement of the system. This leads to uncertainty with how the weather pattern will play out later this week and will need to continue to monitor future model runs. As the models suggest now it will set up a blocking pattern, and although moisture returns back into the Central Plains, only subtle weak SW disturbances will move through and no organized convection is expected, however some weakly forced showers and thunderstorms will still be possible daily Wednesday through the end of the week, shear will be weak. At this time, widespread severe weather threat is low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

LLWS is expected until mid morning for locations across southwest Nebraska with winds just off the sfc from the south at 35 kts. VFR conditions will prevail through most of the day, however an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out for areas generally along and east of HWY 83. Winds will generally be from the WSW around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts across southwest Nebraska. Winds will become light generally 5 kts or less this evening into the overnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.