textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible across the region late this afternoon and evening with large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and localized flooding being the primary threats.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend where some storms could become severe, with some additional localized flooding concerns.

- Below normal high temperatures are expected Thursday through early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Persistent upper level ridging anchored over the southern CONUS has allowed for continual southwest flow aloft, bringing monsoonal moisture up into the Northern Great Plains. As such, active weather is forecasted through the rest of the week.

Scattered thunderstorms will possibly develop across western Nebraska and move eastward through the evening and into the overnight hours tonight. A weak mid level jet is forecasted to be over western Nebraska late this afternoon/early evening. This, combined with surface heating and dewpoints in the mid 60s, should be enough to initiate scattered thunderstorm activity along the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. While short range CAMs still have a little disagreement over exact coverage and how strong thunderstorms will become, the environment does support severe thunderstorms. Guidance suggests an environment with ample instability that will favor initial supercell development that can produce large to very large hail (40 - 50 kts of bulk wind shear, steepening mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE cresting above 3500 - 4500 J/kg). As storms moves eastward they should grow more upscale int clusters and become more of a damaging winds threat with downstream DCAPE values being sufficient at 1100 - 1300 J/kg for potential 60 - 80 mph gusts. Minor localized flooding will also be possible with PWATS above the 90th percentile for this time of year.

Thursday and Friday will be a similar tune where thunderstorm chances will increase late afternoon into the evening each day. As it stands now, guidance suggests there will be weaker instability compared to the last couple of days where MUCAPE only peaks up to 2000 J/kg across central to southern Nebraska. Nevertheless, moist low level easterly flow to the north of a surface low will at least support isolated thunderstorm activity along and south of Highway 83 where large hail and damaging winds will still be possible.

Temperatures are still expected to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon across southwest Nebraska whereas the rest of the CWA will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Thursday will bring quite a cool down for north central Nebraska with highs only topping out in the upper 70s (5 - 10 degrees below normal), with areas along and south of I-80 remaining in the mid 80s. Friday will be a slight warmup across the region with highs in the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Near daily thunderstorm chances will remain through the weekend. Upper ridging will gradually back towards the west through the weekend and into next week with the weekend having the best potential of wetting rains. Guidance is currently suggesting a 40 - 60 percent chance of a quarter of an inch or more over southwest into south central Nebraska Saturday and Sunday evening. Whereas early next week guidance suggests a 30 - 50 percent chance of a tenth of an inch falling across the same area. This is still subject to change as models become more refined but remains enough of a signal now to highlight it.

Weekend temperatures will remain below normal due to the easterly low level flow and near overcast skies that will persist. Highs are expected to only peak in the low 80s across areas along and south of I-80, with mid to upper 70s highs expected northward. Highs will warm slightly to the low to mid 80s by next week but this will still remain about 5 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Thunderstorms developing across the Panhandle will slowly push eastward through the evening hours. Erratic, gusty winds along with large hail will be possible with these storms and may impact both terminals. Expect some reductions in visibility as heavy rainfall is also possible. Some light fog will be possible by early Thursday morning causing reductions in visibility down to 3 miles at times. Dry conditions return for much of Thursday, but ceilings will generally remain below 5000 feet. Another round of thunderstorms are expected later on Thursday, but are expected to hold off until after 00Z Friday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.