textproduct: North Platte

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A highly amplified H5 pattern continued across the CONUS tonight. High amplitude ridging extended from the Arklatex, north into central and northern Manitoba. East of this feature, a broad trough of low pressure was present over the eastern third of the CONUS. Within this trough, closed low pressure was located over New England. West of the ridge, a shortwave trough extended from western Montana, south into northern Utah, then southeast into northern New Mexico. Current Satellite imagery has the New Mexico shortwave over portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern portions of the panhandle of Texas. West of the intermountain trough, a low amplitude ridge was present from near Reno Nevada, north into eastern Oregon. Northwest of this feature, closed low pressure was located approximately 300 miles off the west central coast of British Columbia. Earlier this evening, a broad area of light precipitation was noted over western Kansas. This activity was tracking north into extreme SW Nebraska. However, little or no precipitation was reaching the ground in our far southern counties.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

The upper level disturbance, over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, will track to the southeast today along the Red River ending up northeast of Dallas TX by 00z Monday. The threat for precipitation will shift well south of the area today, however, gusty southerly winds and decent low level moisture, will remain across most of the forecast area today. This will lead to continuation of cloud cover from southern, into central and eastern portions of the forecast area through midday. With a cool airmass already in place, highs this afternoon will struggle to reach 50 in these areas. For locations over the west and northwest, highs may actually reach into the middle 50s as cloud cover is expected to erode this morning. With surface high pressure off to the east and a developing surface trough present from eastern Wyoming, south to the Denver area, a decent pressure gradient will set up this afternoon across the area. Forecast soundings indicate decent gust potential of 30 to 40 MPH in the Sandhills and northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon. This is echoed by the latest NBM ensembles which have a 60 to 80 percent chance of wind gusts reaching 40 MPH this afternoon. When the gust threshold is raised up to 45 MPH, the probabilities fall to near zero. That being said, feel confident with the current forecast of 30 to 40 MPH wind gusts in the Sandhills today. Cooler readings over the southern forecast area, would favor lower wind gusts this afternoon. Tonight the surface trough will track east into the Nebraska Panhandle. Along and immediately east of this feature, the high res HRRR, CONSshort, and RRFS solns do develop fog across the western Sandhills, southeastern Panhandle and far SW Nebraska later tonight. Fog was inserted into the forecast for tonight, however, how low visibilities go down and whether or not fog headlines will be needed, is yet to be determined. Warmer air in association with the surface trough will push east on Monday. This will lead to highs in the middle 50s in the east and southeastern portion of the forecast area, with readings around 60 in the west and northwest.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 137 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A ridge continue to trek eastward Tuesday across the Central CONUS with southwesterly flow and WAA in place, keeping temperatures in the 50s Tuesday. Wednesday a cold front advances into the area, will see compressional heating aiding in temperatures ahead of the front rising into the low 60s. As the front passes through the area winds will be breezy and switch to the northwest. Winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible. Precipitation chances will remain low despite the passage of the front.

Although guidance still points to another system moving into the Central Plains by the end of the week, uncertainties still remain. The track has changed from each model run. Some of the runs have shown the system tracking further south as a closed low system, however the latest run as move the track further north in more of an open wave pattern. The inconsistencies have led to lower confidence on both track and strength of the system and precipitation chances. For now continue to keep the potential for widespread precipitation in the forecast, however this may change as the week progresses and the models become more in consensus with a solution on the track, timing and strength of the system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1132 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low clouds will persist through the overnight with MVFR conditions. Clouds will clear across portions of north central Nebraska and VFR conditions will return by late morning. Across western and southwest Nebraska lower cigs will continue to persist through the day into Sunday evening with MVFR conditions. Winds will be breezy by mid-morning out of the south to southwest around 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 30 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.