textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm conditions persist today, with highs in the upper 90s along and west of HWY 83. Scattered storms are also possible this afternoon and evening, with a few strong to severe storms possible north of HWY 2.

- A pattern shift arrives Wednesday, with slightly cooler t emperatures and an increasing threat for widespread showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night.

- Rain/thunderstorm look likely Thursday into at least the first of the weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall could occur during this timeframe.

- Below normal high temepratures are expected Thursday through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Convection continues to exit central Nebraska currently, and dry conditions are expected to briefly return to the area shortly after Midnight. Attention then turns to a supercell across west central South Dakota approaching the I-90 corridor. Should this storm continue and possibly grow upscale, a threat for damaging winds could overspread north central Nebraska prior to sunrise this morning. However, recent high-res guidance (and notably the WoFS) is persistent with respect to this supercell weakening rapidly as it crosses I-90 over the next couple of hours. If this verifies, the vast majority of the area is expected to remain dry through the rest of the overnight hours. The lone exception to this would be for portions of Boyd and far northern Holt counties, where thunderstorms forming along and east of the Missouri River in South Dakota may clip as the propagate south and east towards sunrise tomorrow morning.

The warm conditions hang around one more day today, with highs again in the upper 90s along and west of HWY 83. Again strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of the Sandhills and northern Nebraska this afternoon and evening. It appears thunderstorms may form again in two regimes, the first being along the weak surface trough that remains anchored across western Nebraska. As with previous days, it is likely this convection largely struggles to organize though a strong to marginally severe storm cannot be briefly ruled out in this regime. The second would be if any convection that is progged to form off the Black Hills can sustain to the HWY 20 corridor late evening. Much like further south, storms will likely struggle to sustain and confidence in any impacts to northern Nebraska remains low. Deep layer shear remains strong and ample instability will be in place should any updrafts achieve any longevity. Damaging winds and large hail would be the primary threats tomorrow.

Wednesday then marks the beginning of a pattern shift, as a surface front approaches the area by Wednesday night. This will also mark the arrival of deeper moisture to the area, with PWAT values climbing to as high a 1.75-1.90" by late Wednesday evening. This is above the 90th percentile climo, and appears to have a monsoonal origin. With this deeper moisture in place, confidence is slowly increasing in the potential for widespread beneficial moisture into late week, with the first round late Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary, with some threat for damaging winds and hail initially. With the arrival of the aforementioned very deep moisture, we quickly lose dry air aloft and CAPE begins to transition to more long and skinny in nature. This points to any severe threat quickly waning by Wednesday night, and focus then turns to a threat for locally heavy rainfall. The antecedent dry conditions will likely hinder any flash flooding threat, though any widespread moisture is most welcome.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Persistent upper level ridging will remain anchored southern plains Thursday into the weekend. ENS/GEFS mean PWAT values are high during this timeframe, as monsoonal/subtropical moisture aloft flows northward then turns east across the region on the northern periphery of the upper high anchored to our south. ENS continues to suggest PWAT values greater than 1.6"...which would be exceeding the the 90th percentile. As several waves/pertubations cross the area, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Thursday through Saturday. EFI index does suggest the potential for localized heavy rainfall Thursday. This seems reasonable with the abundance of moisture that will be available. The locally heavy rain potential will likely continue Friday and into Saturday as well. The 10/12Z ENS mean QPF through Sunday has an average of around 1.5" of rainfall area wide. The trends will definitely be monitored for this potential locally heavy rainfall event.

A considerable cool down is also expected Thursday through the weekend. This is primarily due to a considerable amount of cloud cover and easterly low-level flow. By Sunday, the low-levels begin to dry out somewhat, as Canadian high pressure settles southward into the plains. Temperatures are expected to be below normal during this timeframe, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Areas of MVFR are possible early this morning as visibility drops to between 3-5 miles in BR. A bit of patchy fog will also be possible across mainly northern Nebraska. All areas should be VFR by mid to late morning. Surface winds though the day should generally stay on the light side at 10 kts or less. Scattered thunderstorms will again be possible late this afternoon and evening across the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.