textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue today and tomorrow, before a cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon brings a return of near average highs for Tuesday.

- Moderate to high confidence in increased rainfall potential by the middle of next week.

- Moderate confidence in below normal temperatures by the end of the week with a frost/freeze potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Currently, temperatures range from the upper 50s near the Pine Ridge to the upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere, with breezy south winds continuing across much of the area. A cold front is moving southwards across western South Dakota, with gusty northerly winds across North Dakota and northern South Dakota in its wake.

For today, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move southeast this morning, reaching northwest Nebraska by sunrise. This boundary will then slowly push southeast across the area this afternoon, gradually slowing and stalling near an Imperial to O'Neill line. Behind the front, weak cold advection is expected to keep highs in the 70s across northwest Nebraska and the western Sandhills. Along and ahead of the front, another day in the middle to upper 80s can be expected with H85 temperatures remaining above the 90th percentile climo. Fire concerns look to be lesser today versus yesterday, with minimum humidity this afternoon in the 25-45% range and weaker wind gusts this afternoon.

By this evening, deepening surface low pressure across northeast Colorado will begin to eject east roughly along the Kansas/Nebraska border. This will finally drag the cold front through the area tomorrow morning and begin to push the very warm airmass we've been influenced by the past few days. That said, the stronger cold advection bringing cooler air aloft looks to be delayed until tomorrow night, and one more day above average in the middle 70s to 80s across central and southwest Nebraska. This secondary frontal passage tomorrow night looks to promote stronger cold advection and mechanical mixing, and a period of gusty northeast winds are expected prior to sunrise Tuesday morning. Lows near the Pine Ridge are expected to fall into the upper 30s, with lows in the 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The beginning of some much cooler temperatures and increased potential for precipitation will arrive on Tuesday. While much of Tuesday will remain dry, a developing low pressure system over Colorado will bring the potential of significant rainfall Tuesday night through Thursday. Latest model runs appear to have slowed this system down a little with the best potential for rainfall appearing to now Wednesday night as the low deepens and pushes off the Front Ranges into Nebraska. This precipitation potential will be enhanced as a secondary wave pushing north out of Texas interacts with the deepening system over the Nebraska/Kansas border. Precipitation will continue into Thursday before moving off to the east by Thursday evening. At this time, QPF amounts are still uncertain, but there is still the potential for some embedded thunderstorms Wednesday evening which may produce some heavier rainfall. At this time, not expecting any severe thunderstorms or flooding concerns, but will continue to monitor over the next few days.

Beyond Thursday night, strong upper level ridging will return to the western US allowing for surface high pressure to build south out of Canada bringing a return to dry conditions through the weekend. With this high, cold air advection will push in a much colder airmass into the northern and central Great Plains. With 850 mb temperatures in the -5 to 1 C range on Friday, surface highs will struggle to rise out of the 50s. Highs will gradually moderate through next weekend, rising back into the 70s by next Sunday. For low temperatures, this CAA will drop overnight temperatures into the mid to upper 30s across the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska on Friday morning. Widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s are expected for Saturday morning. Given this colder airmass, frost potential is possible by the end of the week. At this time, headlines are not in place, but if this colder temperature trend remains consistent and confidence increases, they may be necessary. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to date information regarding frost/freeze potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist across the region as high pressure remains in place. Outside of some high clouds, skies will remain mostly clear with ceilings well above 10 kft. Winds will shift to the northeast by this evening, however, winds will remain under 10 knots.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.