textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances tonight into Friday are the concern in the near-term. Could see some isolated to scattered instances of damaging wind with tonight's activity. Dry weather is expected Saturday and beyond into next week.

- Hot temperatures are expected Sunday through at least Tuesday, with highs in the 90s and some locations potentially approaching 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

One last round of thunderstorms is expected across the area late this afternoon into tonight. Early this afternoon analysis shows that overall shear is weak. That is expected to increase some mid to late afternoon as low-level southeasterly flow increases. This is in response to a deepening area of surface low pressure across eastern Wyoming. A couple of different areas for convective initiation this afternoon. 1) across the higher terrain of SD, WY and CO. This is already occurring. 2) Several weak boundaries are located across the area and could serve as a focus for isolated develoment. This seems most likely across the Sandhills, where recent satellite imagery does show some towering cumulus near and southwest of Mullen. Several of the hi-res cam models do initiate some isolated convection near these boundaries this afternoon. Of more certainty will be for the convection off the higher terrain to organize early this evening across the Panhandle as it moves eastward into a moist up-slope southeast flow regime. Hail could occur early on, especially where convection is firing off to our west. Also any isolated convection that develops farther east along the aforementioned boundaries could contain hail. Otherwise should see the Panhandle convection grow upscale into at least a loosely organized MCS this evening as it tracks eastward toward Highway 83. Isolated to scattered areas of damaging wind gusts would be the main concern with this activity. Some uncertainty on how far east this activity will make it before weakening. Latest trends do make it to Highway 83 with at least some threat of stronger wind gusts.

Tomorrow is also a bit uncertain in regards to precipitation. Several of the CAMS including the 09/18Z HRRR shows a lingering MCV that becomes nearly stationary across central Nebraska from tonight's convection. If this were to occur, there may be quite a bit in the way of cloudiness and at least some threat for scattered shower/thunder activity. This trend will have to be monitored.

As we head into the weekend, dry weather is expected. A strong area of upper-level high pressure will expand across the region. By Sunday it should be centered just to our northwest, with very light winds and warming temperatures aloft, as mentioned, this will keep things dry.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Sunday into the middle of next week, an upper-level ridge will amplify and strengthen across the central United States, with 500mb heights potentially approaching 600 dam across the region. Ensemble guidance indicates 850mb temperature anomalies of 4 to 8C above normal, with the greatest anomalies focused across the Dakotas. This pattern will support hot and predominantly dry conditions as the stronger upper-level flow remains north of the region. High temperatures will likely climb into the low to mid 90s across much of the area, with some locations potentially approaching 100 degrees. As mentioned in the previous discussion, NBM percentile guidance remains somewhat less aggressive with high temperatures. However, given the strength of the upper-level ridge, anomalously warm temperatures aloft, and continued dry conditions across western and central Nebraska, temperatures may ultimately trend warmer than current deterministic guidance. We will continue to monitor this over the next few days. Winds will also increase early next week as surface low pressure develops along the central Rockies, tightening the surface pressure gradient across the region and promoting gusty southerly winds. Overall, the pattern early next week is supportive of significant heat, along with dry and gusty conditions through at least Tuesday.

Wednesday into Thursday, the strong upper-level ridge is expected to begin breaking down as an upper-level trough develops across the northeastern United States. This may allow a backdoor cold front to move into the region by late next week, bringing temperatures back toward seasonal levels. The evolving pattern may also provide some opportunities for precipitation, though the potential for widespread precipitation currently appears low. Confidence in the timing and evolution of this pattern shift remains limited due to continued differences among model guidance, and trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A line of thunderstorms will move eastward across the area this evening. The threat with these storms will be locally strong gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail, with surface winds light outside of any thunderstorm activity.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.