textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to moderate confidence in some isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening with a heavy rain and flooding potential.

- Moderate confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again late Monday afternoon and evening with a slight severe risk and continued heavy rain concerns.

- The active pattern continues into midweek, with daily threats for showers and thunderstorms persisting through late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the region tonight. These showers will slowly weaken as they move eastward into more stable air, completely exiting by sunrise. The main concern with these showers will be heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding although some small hail and briefly stronger winds could also be possible. At this time, not anticipating widespread flooding, but some area creeks and streams could see rises leading to some localized minor flooding, along with some flooding of ditches and low lying areas across areas that have seen some heavy rain the past few days.

Surface high pressure will begin to nudge into Nebraska from the north on Sunday leading to a mostly dry forecast to end the weekend. However, diurnal heating will allow for some isolated convection over the Panhandle and higher terrain by late afternoon before pushing eastward into the Sandhills by the evening. However, there is a potential that some storms could intensify overnight as the low level jet increases. At this time the severe risk remains low, but would not be surprised if a stronger storm or two develops with gusty winds being the main threat, although some small hail could be possible in some of the stronger storms. Being primarily diurnally driven, the severe potential should quickly diminish after sunset (late evening) with some showers continuing into Monday morning.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Monday. As any lingering showers finally push out of the region by mid-morning a mostly dry forecast is expected throughout the day. A return to isolated to scattered thunderstorms arrives by late afternoon lasting into the evening as a frontal boundary stalls across the region. Ample instability will exist across southwest and into central Nebraska which should support severe storms across the region. As with previous days, hail and strong winds will be the primary threats with these storms with some heavy rain possible as well. Storms will persist through the evening hours before pushing south and east by early Tuesday morning.

As far as temperatures go, highs will remain below normals through early next week ranging from the upper 70s to the upper 80s both today and Monday. Overnight lows will remain near normals, dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Strong and persistent west-northwest flow continues Tuesday and into late week, with the daily threat for showers and thunderstorms continuing as well. This strong flow aloft combined with dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s leads to strongly sheared and at least moderately unstable conditions across the area each afternoon into late week. Confidence is highest in convection on Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a cold front begins to push across the area from north to south. This surface front looks to provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm development, and the overlap of favorable deep layer shear and instability points to an initial supercellular storm mode. These initial discrete/semi-discrete updrafts will pose a risk for large hail, before a propensity for upscale growth along the encroaching cold front leads to the damaging wind threat increasing with time.

Additional strong to severe storms appear possible nearly each day as we head into late week, though mesoscale details remain unclear and will drive the coverage and magnitude of any threat each day. Trends will continue to be monitored with respect to this. By Friday, upper ridging will begin to amplify across the Rockies and begin to slowly move east into the Plains into this weekend. This will lead to temperatures warming into the upper 80s to lower 90s, along with lessening precipitation chances across the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Patchy fog persists into mid-morning across portions of western Nebraska, with locally IFR visibilities continuing. Some low stratus may also impact southwest Nebraska terminals this morning, before VFR is expected for all terminals into this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are again possible this evening and tonight, though confidence in impacts to both KLBF and KVTN preclude any TS mention for now.

Winds become southerly this afternoon and persists into tonight, at 5 to 10kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.