textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and early evening across far western Nebraska. A few strong to briefly severe storms are possible, especially west of Hwy 83 through mid evening.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Sunday afternoon and evening across the eastern panhandle, western Sandhills and much of north central Nebraska, where gusty west winds and low humidity reside.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon and early evening, mainly across the eastern panhandle into the western Sandhills, where gusty west winds and low humidity reside.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Surface based CAPEs from 1000-1500 J/kg by late this afternoon will be in place across the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Deep layer shear is strong, with 0-6 km values of 30-50 kts. Convergence will increase along a dryline west of highway 61, where initial convective development is favored. A small threat for isolated dry lightning is possible west of Highway 61 early this evening. Coverage of any storms will be isolated in coverage, but a few storms could become strong to briefly severe. Mesoscale models show most of this activity will diminish as they reach Hwy 83 and move east.

Very warm Sunday with highs reaching into the lower 80s with sunny skies. Afternoon humidity will be very low, below 15 percent most areas. Westerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph for areas north of Ogallala through O'Neill. Winds across southwest into central NE will be lighter at 5 to 15 mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the western Sandhills and much o north central Nebraska, where the stronger winds and low humidity overlap.

A slight chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday evening and overnight. Elevated instability with MUCAPEs from 500-1000 J/kg will exist along with 30-40kts of deep layer shear. While a focus may be lacking, areas of weak convergence and a developing low level jet up to 35kts may support at least isolated elevated development.

A very similar day on Monday as highs reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Afternoon humidity will again be very low, below 15 percent most areas. Westerly winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph for areas west of Highway 83 and north of I80, where critical fire weather conditions may be met, and fire weather highlights may be needed.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

On Monday night, a northern stream shortwave trough will lift across North Dakota. Some elevated instability exists across the northwest Sandhills Monday evening. Given the expected dry boundary layer, dry lightning may become a concern in these areas Monday evening. The northern stream shortwave, will force a weak cold front through the area Monday night.

Tuesday, an upper trough will approach the region. This will bring a chance for showers, mainly to the western Sandhills and north central NE. Cooler across the northwest in the low to mid 60s, with low tom mid 70s southwest and east. Gusty north to northwest winds with afternoon humidity 20 to around 30 percent will bring elevated fire weather conditions.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, an upper level trough will cross the region, and bring a continued chance for showers. The NBM ensemble has a 50 to 60 percent probability of a tenth of an inch or more across the northwest Sandhills Tuesday night, to only a 20 to 40 percent probability across the southwest into eastern portions of north central Nebraska. A wetting rain, albeit light, appears confined to northwestern areas.

Wednesday and Thursday will see a return of warm temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, dry conditions and increased fire danger.

A cold front Thursday night, will bring cooler highs from the low 50s to low 60s for Friday. Precipitation chances behind the front appear low, as the best forcing is north of the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds are currently southerly at 15 to 20 kts. There is moderate (40 - 60%) chance for showers and a few thunderstorms moving northeasterly across southwest and central Nebraska. This could affect the KLBF terminal from 01Z until 05Z, where gusty winds and hail will be possible. There will also be some LLWS concerns over the KLBF terminal stretching across central Nebraska. These conditions should stay east of the KVTN terminal at this time. Storms will move out of the region by early Sunday morning where winds will then shift west - northwesterly at 10 - 15 kts, gusting 25 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ204-206-208.