textproduct: North Platte

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Today, another cloudy day with patchy drizzle and fog until mid morning. Warm air advection at 700mb should provide weak lift in the mid levels to support low chances for light rain showers west of highway 83 in the morning, and north central areas in the afternoon. Highs will be held down in the low 60s much of north central and central NE, while the far western Sandhills and southwest should reach the mid 60s to near 70. Surface low pressure across WY and CO and high high pressure over the Great Lakes region will bring a tight pressure gradient with a southeast wind 15 to 25 mph across the west by afternoon. A breezy south southeast wind will continue across the area tonight. Continued warm air advection in the mid levels will bring low chance POPs for light rain showers mainly across the east Tuesday night. Lows 48 to 55.

Wednesday, a weak upper low will be located off Baja Mexico with a rather strong upper ridge centered over southeast Texas, the upper ridge axis extending north into Iowa connecting with a block ridge over the northern Great Lakes. This ridge/trough pattern will work together to bring a strong tap of subtropical moisture from Chihuahua Mexico through swrn Texas and New Mexico northward across eastern Colorado, western Kansas into Nebraska. Some of the models bring PWATs exceeding 1.5 inches into swrn Nebraska by early Wednesday evening. The daily max PWAT for Sept. 23rd is 1.38 inches, so the daily record is possible. A series of disturbances in south southwesterly flow aloft will move into southwest Nebraska Wednesday afternoon, and continue across eastern portions of the area through Wednesday night. Chance POPs for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon southwest, with likely to categorical POPS Wednesday night southwest and east. Only general thunderstorms are expected, though locally heavy rainfall looks increasingly likely. The GFS and ECMWF, and their respective ensembles all support widespread moderate rainfall. NBM 24 hour probability of exceeding a half inch ending 12Z Thursday is from 40 to 66 percent across southwest Nebraska. Additional rainfall is likely Thursday into Thursday night, with details found in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Southwest flow aloft will remain in place Thursday into Friday. This flow will continue to help draw sub-tropical moisture northeastward into the region. ENS mean PWATS climb to above 1.5" to the east of Highway 83 Thursday into Friday. This would be 150 to 200 percent of normal and near the 95th to 99th percentile for this time of year. As a subtle shortwave moves northeast toward the area, surface low pressure will deepen across northeast Colorado. Southeast low-level flow will draw low-level moisture from the Gulf. This, combined with the mid and upper level sub-tropical moisture, will bring the potential for locally heavy rainfall rates Thursday night along and to the north of a weak warm frontal boundary extending eastward from the low. This front looks to reside somewhere near the Nebraska Kansas border or slightly farther north nearer I-80. As the low- level jet strengthen Thursday evening, numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop along and north of the front. As mentioned, locally heavy rainfall will be of concern. from from the northern Rockies into the Dakotas Wednesday night, expect a cold front to slowly move southeast across the area. This front should become the focus for at least scattered convective development. With such high moisture content, locally heavy rainfall rates will be possible. Showers appear to linger through much of the day Friday as a very moist airmass remains in place. Ridging aloft then attempts to build northward into the area during the weekend, which would bring drier weather.

Temperatures are expected to be below normal Thursday into Friday, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperature moderation occurs as the ridging aloft builds into the region during the weekend, with highs near or above normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

MVFR and local IFR conditions are expected early this morning. Scattered showers are expected to develop across western Nebraska this morning and then move eastward across the area through the day. MVFR ceilings are likely to linger across much of the area through day into this evening. Winds will become southeast at 10-15 kts by this afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.