textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected until mid evening as gusty northwest winds and low humidity continues.

- An isolated risk of thunderstorms into this evening portions of southwest and central Nebraska, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this weekend. Storms could be strong to severe both Saturday and Sunday. The main threats appear to be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Late afternoon and early evening, a surface trough and dryline will be located from near Imperial through Ainsworth late this afternoon. Surface winds east of the trough will become light southwest to west, while northwest winds increase to 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph across the western Sandhills and humidity as low as 10 percent. A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect into this evening. Will see winds become light northerly toward sunset. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near and east of the dryline from Hayes Center to Brewster. As highs reach near 90, the cap may break. SBCAPEs as high as 500-750 J/kg and 40-50kts of deep layer shear would support a storm or two with hail up to an inch diameter and strong wind gusts until sunset.

Tonight, winds become light and variable as the weak surface trough moves into eastern Nebraska with mostly clear skies. Lows will range in the low to mid 40s.

Friday, winds will be fairly light west to northwest into the afternoon near and west of Highway 83. Afternoon humidity will be quite lows from near 10 percent across the west and 15 to 20 percent east. Fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical due to the low humidity. Winds and wind gusts are shown to remain below critical levels to around 15 mph most areas, though portions of the western Sandhills will gust to around 20 mph. A slight chance for late afternoon thunderstorms east of Broken Bow to O'Neill, where 500-1000J/kg CAPEs and 40-50kts deep layer shear exist. However, the cap may hold inhibiting storms to initiate.

Friday night, an upper trough will move through the West Coast as the upper flow becomes slightly southwesterly. Warm air advection will lift northward at H7 and could initiate elevated thunderstorms across the Sandhills and northern NE after midnight through daybreak Saturday. Confidence in this is low, as most CAMs remain dry.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Saturday into Saturday night, a large upper trough will move into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. This will bring increasing southwesterly flow aloft across western NE along with an easterly upslope flow at the surface. A warm front is shown to extend to our south across southwest into northeast KS. PWATs increase to around one inch in the afternoon. A distinct shortwave disturbance in the H5 flow is shown to move across CO and swrn KS Saturday afternoon, bringing low chance POPs for showers and thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon. Highs in the low 80s north, to upper 80s swrn NE as easterly winds increase to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Regarding instability, MUCAPEs should range from 1000-2500 J/kg east of Hayes Center through Thedford and Butte as deep layer shear increases to 35 to 45 kts. There is a Marginal Risk (level of 5) mainly south of Highways 2 and 91, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas south of Grant through Broken Bow. Large hail and damaging winds are more likely in the Slight Risk area across the south.

As this disturbance lifts northeast Saturday night, likely to categorical POPs are forecast. NBM mean QPF for Saturday night has increased and is now a quarter inch or more east of Highway 83, to a tenth to quarter inch in the west.

Sunday, the upper trough axis will move into eastern MT, south into Arizona. This will drive a cold front into the northwest Sandhills, with south winds turning southwest ahead of the front. Deep surface low pressure as low as 988MB will extend from central NE back across wrn Ks into sern CO. MUCAPEs should range from 1500-2500 J/kg across southwest into eastern portions of north central NE, with 40 to 50 knots deep layer shear. This environment looks favorable for organized thunderstorm development ahead of the front, which will pose a threat for severe weather. SPC highlights a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across all of the forecast area, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for areas east of Highway 83. The environment will be supportive of organized severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds to main threat into the evening hours. The cold front will advance east of the forecast area after midnight with the severe threat diminishing.

Monday, the upper trough axis will lift across the Northern and Central Plains with showers and a few thunderstorms likely. Northerly winds gusty from 20 to 30 mph. The severe threat should be east of the area. Highs will be much cooler from upper 40s northwest Sandhills, to near 70 far southeast.

Cooler weather Tuesday/Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday only in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Could see cold lows as low as 30 to mid 30s Monday night and Tuesday night, especially across the west. Low shower chances Tuesday night into Wednesday night as a shortwave trough move trough. Broad upper ridging shown to return Thursday with highs return to the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions the next 24 hours across western and north central NE. A surface trough near OGA through VTN will progress eastward this afternoon. This will turn winds to the northwest this afternoon. Broken mid cloudiness will clear out from west to east through late afternoon with mainly SKC tonight. Winds become light and variable after sunset trough the overnight hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.