textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, breezy conditions across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon, with northwesterly to westerly wind gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Near critical fire weather concerns are possible this afternoon, and possible brief, localized critical concerns across southwest Nebraska. - Critical fire weather conditions are expected on Thursday, as abnormally warm temperatures and low relative humidity combine with westerly wind gusts in excess of 60 mph across western Nebraska. Across north central Nebraska, wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are expected.

- Near critical fire weather concerns persist into Friday and Saturday, as warm, dry, and windy conditions continue across the area.

- Light rain and snow is possible behind a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. At this time, areas north of Interstate 80 have the best potential to see accumulations.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

An upper level trough continues to track across the region today, with surface high pressure building on the back side of the system. With this set up, skies begin to clear throughout the morning, with mostly clear skies expected by the afternoon. Continued cool air advection this afternoon will keep temperatures more mild, with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. These more mild temperatures are actually right around seasonal average for early to mid March. However, conditions still remain dry across southwest Nebraska, especially since little to no precipitation has been received recently. Relative humidity values remain low across southwest Nebraska into portions of the Panhandle, generally between 15 to 20 percent. Sustained northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected this afternoon, with gusts up to 30 mph. These stronger wind gusts and low relative humidity are expected to overlap for a few hours, bringing at least near critical fire weather concerns, and possible brief localized critical concerns especially across southwest Nebraska.

However, a much more concerning set up arrives Thursday. Strong downslope flow brings a plume of warm air advection and very gusty winds across western Nebraska. This brings in abnormally warm temperatures across the region, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Along with these warmer temperatures, afternoon humidity values drop around 15 percent across most of the region. Winds are expected to be very strong west of Highway 83, with sustained westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. East of Highway 83, winds still remain strong, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. With all of this combined, expecting critical fire weather conditions across most of, if not all, of western and north central Nebraska. As such, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Thursday afternoon. Will continue to monitor, as an upgrade to a Red Flag Warning may be warranted.

Also worth mentioning that with the strong winds on Thursday, have issued a High Wind Watch for areas west of Highway 83. These winds will create strong crosswinds on north-south oriented roads, possible creating some difficult travel conditions. As mentioned above, these winds also will contribute to critical fire weather concerns, as any fire start will rapidly spread with these very strong winds. Will keep a very close eye on high resolution guidance in the next couple forecast cycles to see if further eastward expansion is warranted.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A cold front bisects the area early Friday morning, with a cooler airmass in place across north central Nebraska. This front will slowly move east through the day, with southerly flow returning to western and southwest Nebraska by early afternoon. The increasing warm advection will boost temperatures across southwest Nebraska, with highs returning to the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs struggle to leave the upper 40s in north central Nebraska, where warm advection is slower to return on top of cloud cover concerns. Unfortunately, the warmer highs in western Nebraska will again lead to fire weather concerns, as humidity falls into the teens Friday afternoon. The strongest west winds are expected along and west of HWY 61 at this time, and this is where fire concerns will be maximized.

Warm advection persists into Saturday, as downslope flow establishes across much of western and southwest Nebraska. The highs in the 60s to 70s expand further into the Sandhills and central Nebraska, with highs again struggling to leave the 50s further northeast. This again pushes humidity values to as low as 15 to 20 percent across western and southwest Nebraska, setting the stage for another elevated to near critical fire weather day. Westerly wind gusts approaching 25 to 35 miles per hour west of HWY 83, and this is where critical fire conditions may develop.

A cold front then passes through the area Saturday night, as a surface low ejects east out of Colorado and into the central Plains. Light rain changing to snow is possible behind this front, though confidence in both coverage and amounts remains low for now. Probabilities of >0.10" are highest north of I-80 at this time, ranging from ~40-60% north of HWY 2 through Sunday afternoon. Trends will be monitored, and this looks to be the next shot of precipitation across the area. Temperatures then quickly return back to above average as we head into early next week, and this looks to bring a return of fire weather concerns yet again.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low stratus will slowly exit the area by late morning, with VFR conditions then expected to prevail through tomorrow morning across all of western and north central Nebraska.

Winds remain gusty from the northwest through this afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 30kts for all area terminals. Winds then become southwesterly tonight, at 10 to 15kts. Southwesterly LLWS is also expected to develop early tomorrow morning for all terminals, as winds strengthen aloft.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for this afternoon, primarily in areas that did not see appreciable snowfall early this morning. This would largely be for areas south of Interstate 80. That said, despite highs in the middle 40s to low 50s today, humidity values are expected to fall in the 15 to 25 percent range. As winds increase to 25 to 35 miles per hour from the northwest this afternoon, fire concerns will increase across the area. Near critical to briefly critical fire concerns are expected this afternoon.

Fire concerns greatly increase for Thursday, with the potential for a higher end fire weather day across the area. Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dry air and lead to humidity falling to as low as 12 to 20 percent across the entire area. Very strong winds are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon, with sustained westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph and gusts up to 60 mph. East of Highway 83, winds still remain strong, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. This will overlap the low humidity and lead to critical fire conditions across all of western and north central Nebraska. This will lead to erratic fire spread and rapid fire growth. A strong cold front will also pass through the area Thursday night into Friday, leading to a wind shift from west to northwest. A corridor of very strong northwest winds (50+ miles per hour) are possible across northern Nebraska with its passage. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska for Thursday.

Fire concerns persist into Friday and Saturday, primarily across western and southwest Nebraska. A brief cooldown on Sunday lessens fire concerns, before temperatures quickly warm early next week. This could mark a return of elevated to near critical conditions to the area yet again.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ004-005-022>024-035-036-056-057-094. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.