textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence in precipitation potential Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- High confidence in above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

- Low to moderate confidence in track of a late week system which has the potential to bring rain/snow to much of the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 236 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Surface high pressure will track southeastward through the Mississippi Valley region today. Southeast low-level flow (wind) will increase across the area as a relatively tight pressure gradient develops due to low pressure deepening across the Rockies. Cooler air will be recycled back to the northwest, with highs ranging from the upper 30s across parts of north central Nebraska, to mid 50s across portions of the Panhandle. Any fire weather concerns will be limited today and confined to areas west of Highway 83. Winds will remain south to southeast tonight as the center of surface high pressure continues to slowly track southeastward across the Mississippi Valley region. Other than bouts of high-level cloudiness, dry conditions are expected both today and tonight.

The weather begins to change Monday into Monday night. A compact shortwave will dive east-southeastward across the Rockies and be located across Wyoming by late Monday night. Mid-level WAA will increase Monday afternoon into Monday night. As the column saturates, some light rain is expected to develop. This could occur as early as late Monday afternoon across northern Nebraska, but more likely area-wide Monday night. POP chances increase to about 30-50% Monday night. Any amounts look very light Monday night, with a very low probability of seeing any amounts over 1/10 of an inch liquid. However, surface temperatures cool to near or just below 30F after midnight, so a bit of light freezing rain will be possible. A pronounced warm layer aloft should should keep any precipitation all rain. Even though amounts will be light, it takes just a little freezing rain to make conditions slick, so will continue to monitor this potential.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 236 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Active weather continues on Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level trough pushes through the Great Plains. As temperatures rise above freezing Tuesday morning, the potential for freezing rain diminishes. However, rain will likely continue throughout the day on Tuesday. Precipitation is not expected to be a complete washout or widespread, instead, it will be more isolated to scattered in nature. Instability remains weak across the region, so not expecting any convection, but there will be chances for some heavier showers. Precipitation will continue into Tuesday night, but will quickly be departing to the east. Therefore, by the time temperatures drop to below freezing, precipitation will be mostly out of the forecast area, and therefore, not expecting a transition back to snow early Wednesday morning.

Weak upper level ridging returns for Thursday keeping conditions dry. This will be short-lived, though, as the next developing upper level low arrives Thursday night and into Saturday morning. As the low deepens and pushes through Nebraska, much of the region could see widespread rain/snow, however, precip type remains a concern with the majority of the region seeing rain. Areas across the Pine Ridge will remain cooler and could see some rain/snow mix or all snow even during the day on Friday. There is also still some concern regarding the track of this system with some of the latest runs coming in with a more northern track leading to less precipitation across north central Nebraska. Will continue to monitor this as the models get a better handle of the development of this system.

With precipitation and persistent clouds on Tuesday, temperatures will remain in the low 50s across the region. Highs will rise back into the upper 50s to upper 60s (even into the low 70s in some locations) through Thursday. The return of precipitation and developing low will bring in cooler air once again for the end of the week with highs dropping back into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Overnight lows will generally remain in the mid 20s to low 30s through Friday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight with just some high level clouds expected. The only aviation concern will be some stronger southeasterly winds across northern Nebraska late this afternoon, impacting KVTN with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds diminish after sunset with VFR conditions prevailing through the evening. Some lower clouds will build in overnight across southern Nebraska as the next system tracks across Kansas. Ceilings down to 8000 feet will be possible at KLBF early Monday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.