textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances today and Thursday, with a potential for severe weather Thursday

- A return to very warm conditions are expected this weekend along with the possibility of elevated fire weather conditions.

- A chance for at least some rainfall returns next week.

- Cooler weather is expected Friday along with gusty north winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the shower and thunderstorm chances for today and Thursday. Additional thunderstorms may develop early this morning with a strong LLJ. Additional development will generally be across the Sandhills into central Nebraska, where a few of the CAMs have been consistent in showing early morning convection developing. Will need to monitor additional thunderstorm development this morning as they could lead to some moderate to heavy rainfall as thunderstorms will be slow moving and PWAT values remain high. There is the potential for areas to see over 2 inches of rainfall may lead to localized flooding. One area of concern for thunderstorm activity this morning will be over Custer County. Yesterday portions of central Custer received around 2 inches or more and any additional rainfall today and tomorrow could lead to some localized flooding.

The greater confidence of thunderstorm development will be this evening as thunderstorms develop off the higher terrain. Forcing will be weak however leading to lower confidence in storms that develop off the high terrain being able to sustain themselves as they move eastward. At this time the threat for severe weather remains low for this evening.

As for Thursday, a SW trof will move into the High Plains region with the potential for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The greatest potential for thunderstorms will be in the afternoon as instability increases with MU CAPE values around 2000 to 3000 J/kg. However this will be dependent on how much convection develops during the morning hours. Damaging winds will be the greatest threat with thunderstorms that become strong to severe in the afternoon/evening. There will be a secondary threat of hail and localized moderate to heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A potent shortwave will be exiting the area Friday. In it's wake a cold front will have crossed the area with gusty north winds expected through the day. Cooler temperatures will be experienced behind this system, especially across portions of north central Nebraska, where highs in the lower 80s are forecast. Drier air will work into the area behind the front, with lows in the comfortable upper 50s to around 60 degrees Friday night.

On Saturday, expect the upper level ridging to expand north and eastward from the desert southwest. This will begin a warm-up region wide. Highs will range from 4 to 7 degrees above normal across western Nebraska, with near normal readings across central into north central Nebraska. This puts actual highs ranging from the mid 80s across the central/north to lower to mid 90s west.

Upper level ridging continues to expand across the area Sunday. This will continue to bring more warmth with highs exceeding 90 degrees at all locations. Deepening low pressure across Wyoming ahead of a broad long wave trough across the northern Rockies will bring strong, gusty south winds particularly west of Highway 183. Highs in these areas will be well into the 90s with humidity likely dropping into the 20-25% range by afternoon across the Panhandle and far western Nebraska. This will bring an increase in fire weather concerns, especially for areas that haven't received rain and much green-up.

Early next week the ridge may flatten some and along with higher PWAT values. This could bring a return to some chance for rainfall. Still could see some fire weather concerns yet Monday, but these decrease Tuesday as temperatures cool back some and humidity rises.

AVIATION /06 TAFS THROUGH 06 THURSDAY/

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through these early morning hours and through much of the day across western and north central Nebraska. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Panhandle into far western Nebraska late this afternoon into this evening. These should mainly remain west of Highway 83 from VTN to LBF.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.