textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances have trended downward somewhat for tonight into Wednesday morning.

_ Much cooler temperatures are expected Today and Wednesday with highs in the 70s. A gradual warmup will push highs into the 80s for Thursday with 90s returning for Friday through Monday.

- The threat for organized measurable precipitation beyond Wednesday is low with better chances arriving on Monday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

H5 analysis had an area of high pressure anchored over northwestern New Mexico and northeastern Arizona. North of the high, a trough of low pressure extended from around Churchill Manitoba, south southwest into the western Dakotas. Another shortwave upstream of this feature was located over southern Alberta. East of the trough, ridging extended north from the central Great Lakes into northeastern Ontario. Immediately east of this feature, a broad trough of low pressure extended from Quebec, south into New England. At the surface overnight, a cold front had passed through the forecast area by midnight CT. As of 2 AM CDT, this feature was oriented along a line from Sioux City, to Hastings, to south of McCook. Well behind the front, a broad area of thunderstorms had developed from near Hyannis to north of O'Neill. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, 2 AM CDT temperatures ranged from 53 degrees at Gordon, to 70 degrees at Ogallala.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Precipitation chances this morning, and again late tonight into Wednesday are the main forecast challenges in the near term. The threat for precipitation will linger into the morning hours today in the eastern forecast area. This is in the vicinity of an H700 front and generally east of approaching surface high pressure. As the high pushes south and east this afternoon, the threat for precipitation will gradually end from west to east. With the forecast area being north of the frontal boundary and continued cool air advection today, highs will struggle to get out of upper 60s to lower 70s. Persistent cloud cover, particularly over the southern half of the forecast area this afternoon, will also limit the warmup. For highs today, generally followed the NBM ensemble guidance which was slightly cooler than the warm MAV guidance and well above the very cool MET guidance. For the North Platte, this yielded a high of 73 today. This was in contrast with the MET's high of 66 degrees which is at the 10th%ile of the NBM ensemble spread. Conditions will be mainly dry this evening as the surface high crosses southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas. Overnight into Wednesday morning, weak mid level warm air advection, timed with a shortwave, will bring an increased threat for light precipitation to the area. Looking at the NBM ensemble QPF probability of exceedance forecast tonight, I am much less optimistic about decent rainfall. In fact the 0.01 and 0.10 exceedence thresholds are around 20 percent lower than what was in last night's forecast. That being said, pops were dropped into the chance category tonight and Wednesday and likely pops were eliminated from the forecast. As for temperatures Wednesday, we should see somewhat warmer temps compared to today with precipitation ending midday Wednesday and some limited afternoon clearing expected. This will result in highs mainly in the lower to middle 70s with a possibility of 80 in the far west and northwest.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Ridging across the western CONUS, will begin to migrate east beginning Thursday with the forecast area not seeing the main effects of this airmass until Friday. For Thursday, highs will be in the mid 80s to around 90 in the west. Much warmer temperatures will arrive on Friday across the area with Saturday through Monday featuring hot temperatures across all of the forecast area. The latest NBM continues to trend higher with its forecast temps Friday through Monday and is reflected with this forecast package. Looking at the GFS ensembles and their mean highs, North Platte could see 100+ degree readings Friday through Monday. The deterministic GFS soln has H85 temps of 30+ C across SW Nebraska with some locations in far SW Nebraska eclipsing 35C Friday through Monday. With temperatures trending upward in the NBM and with support from the deterministic and ensemble GFS solns, will probably begin to message the heat for the end of the week. As for precipitation chances, they appear limited through Monday. However, by Monday, a northern stream trough may force a frontal boundary into northern Nebraska which may lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms over northern Nebraska. Forecast confidence is low ATTM and pops were not increased over the slight chance, low end chance pops with the inherited forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected early this morning across western and north central Nebraska. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Surface winds will be north to northeast at 15-25 kts this evening and gusty. Winds will gradually diminish through the day today.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.