textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog/low stratus early Thursday will give way to warmer and breezy conditions across the region.

- Snow potential appears to be increasing for Saturday with at least light accumulations possible favoring north central Nebraska.

- Much warmer temperatures arrive next week with highs 10-20F above normal for many Monday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 402 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Satellite analysis depicts a large swath of low stratus stretching from southern North Dakota down through eastern Colorado. This will largely colocated with southerly flow on the backside of departing high pressure, centered over central Iowa as of 09z (3am CST). This southerly flow has been efficient at introducing richer low-level moisture with middle to upper 20s dew points now being reported on area ASOS/AWOS sites across southwest Nebraska. This is helping keep temperatures milder though still below freezing. With the increased low-level moisture, some fog/freezing drizzle was reported in the area and believe this threat will likely persist through daybreak before waning as focus points elsewhere.

For today/tonight...increased south to southwesterly flow will usher in a temperature rebound to more seasonable levels across the area. With h85 values climbing above the freezing mark and breezy southwest winds, afternoon highs should climb into the upper 30s to middle 40s. Low stratus will gradually erode and be replaced by high level clouds during the afternoon with dry conditions expected. Winds will be breezy with gusts around 25 to potentially 30 mph during the day. These will turn to more northwesterly as a surface trough tracks through the area with a slight decrease likely. Lows tonight will certainly be more mild with low to middle 20s expected. River valleys may see slightly colder values as cold air drainage appears probable. This may allow for some locations to reach the upper teens.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 402 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Friday...another dry day across western Nebraska. West to northwesterly flow continues as a weak disturbance shifts across the upper Mississippi Valley. Temperatures at h85 remain largely unchanged so daytime highs should be a near repeat from Thursday: upper 30s to middle 40s. Winds will again be breezy with gusts around 20 to 25 mph, strongest near the SD border. A clipper system will dive across the Dakotas but impacts should remain north as NBM/EPS/GEFS probabilities remain muted south of I-90.

Saturday/Sunday...a more unsettled pattern arrives this weekend with increased precipitation potential including possible accumulating snow. Some uncertainty remains so confidence is medium at best regarding the threat for winter impacts. Low-amplitude northwesterly flow will remain in place as a stronger upper-level disturbance moves across Canada. Enhanced flow aloft will point a 140+ knot h25 jet into the Central Rockies by early Saturday. Beneath the left- exit region of this feature, a modest low pressure system will develop and track along the lee of the Northern Rockies. Ensemble clustering shows weakening low centers moving along and just north of the Platte River system of western Nebraska through early Saturday with only slight disagreements between major ensembles EPS/GEFS on how far southwest these lows set up. This casts some doubt on where the greatest low-level forcing sets up. The more bullish solution, the GFS with the NAM not too far behind, paints broad warm-air advection preceding the approximately 1000 hPa surface low. The further northeast placement of the surface low in the ECMWF/EPS data supports most of the wintry impacts remain across southeast South Dakota as drier air works in and overspreads the area. Ensemble probabilities of exceeding 0.1" QPF range from 30-50% and 40-70% in the EPS and GEFS solutions respectfully. This likely occurs within the plume of colder air within the northwesterly flow and thus favors snow. The current forecast hugs closer the wetter solutions which paints accumulating snow over our far northeast zones during the day Saturday into the evening. Given a fairly weak surface low, winds are not anticipated to be overly strong but 20 to 25 mph gusts remain possible. As the system departs late Saturday evening, wrap-around moisture from the forming h85 and h7 lows may impact our northern zones into early Sunday. As high pressure shifts southeast across the Northern Plains, a plume of richer mid-level moisture will filter in from the northwest with enough lift aloft to potentially lead to additional light snow across our north. The high pressure will more notably drive temperatures down across central and eastern Nebraska while southerly flow further west will keep things mild. This leads to middle 40s in the west both Saturday and Sunday but lower 30s falling to the teens in the east for the same time frame.

Monday and beyond...dry and much warmer weather arrives for the start of the following work week. Ridging aloft will form off the coast of Southern California with increasing heights aloft for late Sunday into Monday. Enhanced northwesterly flow will again dominate the central CONUS through Ohio Valley. With westerly downsloping flow likely across the area, temperatures are likely to quickly climb to above normal values beneath the warmer air associated with high pressure aloft across the west. This translates to 40s and 50s Monday through Wednesday with a potential run to the low 60s on Tuesday. With the strong upper-jet diving south beneath deep troughing over the Hudson Bay, active weather will likely resume for the latter half of the week. With timing differences on more pronounced shortwave disturbances embedded within the mid-level flow, confidence in day-to-day precipitation predictability wanes considerably. Even so, and considering noisy output from ensembles, the potential for a larger system bringing higher impact wintry weather does not appear overly high.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A brief period of freezing drizzle may be possible tonight across far southwest Nebraska, including the KIML airport, but confidence is low in how far north this will expand and at this time it should remain south of KLBF terminal. The rest of the area will see lower cigs with MVFR conditions possible through early to mid morning. Then cigs will lift and VFR conditions will return. Winds will increase by late morning/early afternoon out of the southwest with 10 to 15 kts sustained and gust up to 25 kts. Winds will diminish by evening with winds shifting to the west around 5 to 10 kts through the remainder of the forecast period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.