textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning for today and Thursday for all of western and north central Nebraska

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the potential for dry lightning

- Isolated thunderstorms possible late tonight across north central Nebraska

- Increasing confidence in precipitation Saturday night through Monday. Beneficial amounts continue to look more favorable for the area.

- Wet snow may occur across the northwest portion of the forecast area on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The main concern in the short term will be critical fire weather conditions today and Thursday and thunderstorm potential this afternoon and evening.

For this afternoon a sfc trof will push eastward with some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development possible. Storms that develop across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 83, are expected to be high based. Soundings across western Nebraska have the inverted v signature and thus expect thunderstorms to remain mostly dry with very little rainfall expected and the potential from some downdraft winds that could potentially be 50 mph or greater. There will also be a threat for dry lightning as well. Southerly winds should advect some moisture into portions of the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, generally along and east of HWY 83. As storms move eastward into the evening hours they may move into a more favorable environment for more sfc based storm development. This will then lead into main hazard of concern becoming a hail threat, although there may be more moisture at the sfc to the mid levels east of HWY 83, still don't expect rainfall amounts with thunderstorms to be anything more than a few hundredths of an inch.

Tonight a low level jet will strengthen across the area. There will be a corridor of moisture from the Sandhills into north central Nebraska and expect some sfc based storms to develop late tonight, generally after 11pm CDT and continue into the early morning hours. Backing sfc winds and CAPE values around 1500 to 2000 J/kg, confidence is increasing in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the northern Sandhills and will move eastward into north central Nebraska. Could see the potential for severe hail (greater than 1").

Winds shift overnight to the west northwest and will remain breezy through the morning. Winds will increase into the afternoon around 20 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 mph. Soundings across western Nebraska would suggest the strongest winds will generally along and west of HWY 83. Min RH will also be low with most locations across southwest Nebraska and the southern Sandhills ranging from 10 to 15 percent, elsewhere min RH will generally be in the upper teens to around 20 percent. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 10am CDT to 8pm CDT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend. The northern stream system will continue to weaken to the north on Saturday, while a southern stream upper level trough moves into the western United States. This will result in broad southwest flow across the region.

At the surface, low pressure is expected to develop across eastern Colorado, with a warm front extending across Kansas and gradually moving north. This will promote increasing moisture advection and support deeper moisture profiles across the area Saturday night into Sunday, especially as the warm front continues to move northward. By early Sunday morning, increasing mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis, combined with southeast upslope flow, will lead to precipitation developing and continuing through much of the day. Recent model guidance continues to indicate an increasing potential for a widespread precipitation event from Saturday night through Monday morning.

The NBM 50th percentile currently suggests widespread precipitation amounts exceeding one-half inch, while the 75th and 90th percentile indicate potential closer to one inch. Ensemble guidance also supports this trend, with the GEFS showing a 60 to 70 percent probability of exceeding one-half inch, and the EPS indicating 70 to 90 percent probabilities across the Sandhills into central/north- central Nebraska. Across southwest Nebraska, probabilities are somewhat lower but still in the 40 to 50 percent range, increasing confidence in a soaking precipitation event. In addition to the rainfall, there is some potential for wet snow, particularly across the northwest portion of the CWA, as cooler air associated with the northern stream system lingers. Ensemble guidance suggests a 50 to 60 percent chance of at least one inch of snowfall in this area. The primary uncertainty remains the track and speed of the weekend system, both of which will influence overall precipitation amounts and distribution across the region.

Heading into the early next week, cooler temperatures will follow in the wake of the weekend system, with lows near or below freezing Monday and Tuesday mornings. Highs on Monday will be in the 50s, warming into the 60s by Tuesday. An unsettled pattern is expected to persist, with multiple weak disturbances bringing periodic chances for showers. Another stronger storm system may approach the region by midweek, potentially bringing additional and better precipitation chances. This will continued to be monitored over the next several days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Strong winds will continue through the evening before diminishing slightly after Midnight CT. Southerly wind gusts up to 40 knots during the evening should be expected. Winds will shift to the southwest behind a frontal boundary early Thursday morning as well as decreasing down to near 20 to 25 knots. Winds will increase once again by late Thursday morning and into the afternoon with westerly gusts up to 35 knots. There is also some isolated rain or thunderstorm chances along with the frontal passage. These storms will remain discrete initially, but could congeal into a line by mid to late evening. The majority of this late evening thunderstorm activity should remain east of US-83 and therefore east of both terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will continue through mid evening across all of western and north central Nebraska. Southerly wind gusts up to 50 MPH remain possible through sunset with winds decreasing into the late evening hours. Winds will then shift to the west overnight as a surface trough of low pressure tracks through the region. In addition to gusty winds and low RH across all of western and north central Nebraska, there is also a threat for dry lightning tonight mainly west of highway 83 from Valentine to North Platte. RH recovery tonight will be meager with max RH generally less than 40 percent west of highway 61. Between highway 83 and 61, RH recovery will range from 40 to 60 percent. East of highway 83, RH recovery will range from 60 to 90 percent.

Thursday will feature critical fire weather conditions across all of western and north central Nebraska. Though temperatures will be cooler, westerly winds gusting up to 40 MPH, will combine with low relative humidities of 10 to 20 percent, producing critical fire weather conditions across all of western and north central Nebraska. West winds will shift to the northwest and north Thursday evening as a cold front crosses the area. RH recovery Thursday night will range from 70 to 85 percent across the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.