textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening, with a Red Flag Warning in effect for most of western Nebraska.

- A few strong storms are possible late this afternoon and evening, east of a Curtis through Butte line. While confidence in storm development is low, and storms that form may quickly intensify.

- Temperatures will trend downward Tuesday continuing through Thursday. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday, rising back into the 70s for Wednesday and Thursday.

- There will be periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday night and continuing into next week. The best chances for precipitation are Saturday night into Sunday night across the northern half of the forecast area, then Monday night across the southern half of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Today into tonight, surface low pressure will deepen and move east across South Dakota today. A trailing surface trough across western Nebraska will move east, with westerly winds behind the trough and southwest winds ahead of it. The stronger winds will range from 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph across the central Sandhills into north central Nebraska. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s throughout the area. Critical fire weather conditions are expected during the afternoon into the early evening, with a Red Flag Warning in effect across the western Sandhills into much of north central Nebraska. Details found in the Fire Weather Section below.

A conditional threat for a few strong thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across the far southeastern zones. Moderate instability with SBCAPEs from 2500-3500 J/kg will exist with a weak cap remaining in place through the afternoon. This should inhibit thunderstorm development in the afternoon. However, if the cap were to break, an isolated storm or two could quickly intensify. Large hail and damaging winds are possible into the evening hours, though coverage looks very limited. The area of concern will be for areas east of a line from Curtis through Butte. During the evening and overnight, a cold front will drop south and south exit the south by daybreak. Could see isolated light rain showers behind the front overnight across the Sandhills into north central Nebraska. Lows will be cooler from the upper 40s northwest Sandhills to the upper 50s far southeast.

Saturday, much cooler behind the front, with highs from 73 to 78 degrees, with a mix of sun and clouds. Northeast winds will become easterly in the afternoon. Expecting a dry day, except for a slight chance of showers in central Nebraska in the morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Periodic precipitation chances are the main forecast challenge in the long term forecast. An upper level low and trough will enter the northwestern portion of the CONUS Saturday night. Downstream, ridging will increase from eastern Wyoming into central Montana. Downstream of this ridge axis, mid level warm air advection will increase across South Dakota into northern Nebraska late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The latest NBM ensembles, with additional support from the deterministic GFS and EC solns develop precipitation late Saturday night across northern Nebraska and lift this to the east southeast into Sunday morning. This precipitation follows a H700 frontal boundary from southern South Dakota into northern and northeastern Nebraska. The latest NBM ensemble 12 hr QPF probabilities have a 40 to 65 percent chance of exceeding 0.10" of QPF east of a line from Valentine to Burwell ending at 1 PM on Sunday. That being said, with support from the NBM and deterministic GFS and EC solns, feel the low end likely pops in the northeast FA are on track ATTM. The upper level low will track into the northern Rockies Sunday. Southerly winds will increase downstream of this low and upper level trough axis from Kansas northwest into western Nebraska and the northern high plains of Wyoming, the western Dakotas and eastern Montana. Decent low level moisture advection will commence Sunday across the area. By afternoon, a plume of low level moisture surges north into western Nebraska and the panhandle. The degree of this moisture is still up in the air with the deterministic solns tonight with the GFS's surface dew points well into the lower 60s, while the NAM12 holds them back into the middle 50s. Late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours, convection looks to initiate over the Cheyenne Ridge and central Rockies. This activity then lifts northeast Sunday night into Monday morning, mainly over western and northern Nebraska. The NBM initialized with likely pops over the northern third of the forecast area Sunday night and this appears on track considering the ensemble QPF forecast has a 50 to 75% chance of QPF's exceeding 0.10" Sunday night into Monday morning generally north of highway 2. As for the severe threat Sunday night, a narrow theta e ridge noses into the southern Panhandle Sunday afternoon and this is co-located with decent sfc to 6KM shear~40+kts. Any storms that do initiate in this environment may be strong to severe initially, but should weaken as they travel east of the panhandle. The upper level low and trough will track across south central Canada, approaching western Hudson Bay by Tuesday morning. This feature will force a cold front through the forecast area Monday, stalling this feature out over northern Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation chances will be greatest Monday night across the southern forecast area INVOF the front. This feature will stall out over Kansas Tuesday into Wednesday with the best threat for precipitation off to the south of the forecast area. This front will then start to lift north Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper level trough tracks east southeast from the pacific NW into the northern Rockies. This will lead to increasing chances for precipitation beginning Thursday, carrying over Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Over the next 24 hours, expect scattered high clouds at both terminals. There is a threat for isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening hours, however the greatest threat for storms should be east of both terminals. There is also a small threat for isolated thunderstorms later tonight over northern Nebraska. ATTM, with isolated coverage expected, will forgo mention of thunderstorms in this TAF package. Winds today will gradually change direction today with southerly winds this morning, westerly winds this afternoon and northerly winds this evening and tonight. Wind gusts up to 25 to 30 KTS are possible today and will gradually diminish this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Near-cricital to critical fire weather conditions are expected across western and most of north central Nebraska this afternoon into the evening. Breezy south to southwest winds at the surface will increase in strength shortly after sunrise as gusty winds aloft start to mix down to the surface. Localized peak wind gusts could reach as high as 45 mph during the initial mixing period on the morning across the northeast portion of our CWA. The wind profile is expected to become more westerly through the afternoon as a dryline feature surges east with consistent gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range. This dryline could push as far east as a line from North Platte to Butte, plunging humidity values as low at the mid teens. Winds should start to settle by the mid evening. Isolated chances for showers as well as overnight humidity recovering around 70 to 80 percent across the region, should help limit the overall threat continuing into the overnight hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208.