textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential for widespread precipitation is expected Wednesday night through Friday morning. Depending on where the frontal boundary and shortwave line up will greatly impact rainfall amounts, but as it stands, highest amounts are likely to be east of a line from Ogallala to O'Neill.

- Warmer, drier conditions expected for the weekend with upper 70s to low 80s daytime highs possible for the eastern Panhandle and southwest Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to percolate across north central Nebraska until the mid evening as 700mb area of warm air advection settles across western Nebraska providing enough lift. As these showers dissipate overnight the environment will still be saturated. This could create conditions for patchy fog and mist to settle over north central down to southwest Nebraska. On Wednesday, an upper ridge over the Plains will be sandwiched between a upper low off the coast of Baja Mexico and a upper trough over the northern Great Lakes region. This pattern will tap into sub-tropical moisture, bringing sufficient moisture into western KS/NE. This has brought abnormally high PWATs into the region with them consistently being in the 90th to 95th percentile. The right exit region of a 500mb jet maximum is forecasted to be right along the western KS/southwest NE border. This combined with a shortwave making its way along the windward side of the ridge will provide sufficient lift for widespread showers Wednesday night. Some thunderstorm activity will be possible although with CAPE values remaining low, severe activity is not expected at this time. Storms however are becoming increasingly likely to be heavy rain producers, which could create some localized flooding concerns. This is highlighted as well from WPC where southwest Nebraska in in a marginal risk for excessive rains. This event is expected to continue into Friday morning, with details found in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

As noted above, widespread rain chances will continue thru Friday morning. Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring sufficient sub- tropical moisture northeastward. A surface low will deepen across northeast Colorado and start to move into southwest Nebraska through the afternoon/evening Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will extend on the east side of this low. There still is some disagreement between guidance on how far this boundary settle beyond the KS/NE border through the evening Thursday and into Friday. This will be a major factor in which areas see the highest rainfall amounts. As it stands now, areas east of a line from Ogallala to O'Neill could see amounts upwards of 1.0 to 1.5". LREF probabilities gives at 40 to 60 percent of this area seeing upwards of an inch where as further into southwest Nebraska still holds probabilities of 20 to 40 percent for rainfall amounts reaching 1.5". This could come in the form of locally heavy rain which will bring some flooding concerns. With lapse rates expected to remain weak along with a only modest shear, what thunderstorms do form, are not likely to become severe, but this will be continue to be monitored for any changes.

Widespread precipitation chances should greatly decrease in time for the weekend. As the upper trough moves past Friday, it will bring in the attempt for a ridge to build. This will bring in warmer, dryer air from the desert southwest. Daytime highs will increase back to near normal to even slightly above normal across southwest and the eastern Panhandle, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Expect mainly overcast conditions at both terminals over the next 24 hours. For the KLBF terminal, MVFR ceilings will reach IFR levels below 1000 FT AGL overnight and will persist through the morning hours on Wednesday. Ceilings will gradually climb to MVFR levels early afternoon reaching around 5000 FT AGL after 21z Wednesday. At the KVTN terminal, expect IFR ceilings below 1000 FT AGL to develop after 06z this evening, persisting through 16z Wednesday. Ceilings will reach around 2500 FT AGL after 19z Wednesday. At both terminals, look for winds to be gusty from the southeast and south over the next 24 hours. Gusts up to 25 KTS are possible at both terminals on Wednesday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.