textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog develops later tonight across the west and south lasting into Friday morning. Shower chance will also increase Friday afternoon and evening, with a few thunderstorms also possible.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected Saturday and much of Sunday, with highs generally in the lower to middle 60s. Rainfall chances increase Sunday night into Monday morning.

- A strong storm system may impact the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing additional precipitation chances and potentially strong northwest winds. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the storm track and overall evolution of the system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Today and Tonight...A closed low will persist of the coast of the Pacific Northwest as the main upper trough persists along the West Coast. This will bring an increase in southwesterly flow aloft to the region as a shortwave trough lifts through eastern New Mexico and west Texas by late tonight. A warm front is forecast to develop across west central into north central KS this afternoon, where showers and a few thunderstorms may develop. Highs today should be rather uniform from 60 to 65 degrees across the forecast area as winds return to the south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon, with gusts up to 25 mph across the northwest Sandhills. The warm front will lift north tonight, with a slight chance for showers across far southeastern areas. Stratus and patchy fog will also develop across the western Sandhills, southwest and central NE overnight. Light drizzle is also possible with bufkit soundings indicating saturation up to 800mb, with drier air aloft. Skies will become cloudy tonight with lows in the low to mid 40s.

Friday and Friday night...Overcast skies in stratus on Friday as a weak warm front lifts through southern NE. Patchy morning fog, and possibly light drizzle in the west and south, with increasing shower chances. Some elevated instability will support a slight chance for thunderstorms southwest into central NE in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s with low 60s far southern areas. The shortwave trough will lift north from the Texas panhandle/western OK into southern KS Friday, and from northern KS into central and eastern NE Friday night. This will bring chance POPS to areas mainly east of Highway 83 overnight. Rainfall amounts look to be fairly light. NBM 24 hour probability of greater than a tenth of an inch ending 12Z Saturday is 60 percent Broken Bow through O'Neill and east, to only 30 to 40 percent further west to near Highway 83.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Saturday, a longwave trough will remain across the western United States, gradually progressing eastward through the day. Ahead of this trough, upper-level ridging will continue to amplify across the northern Plains, resulting in height rises across the region. Moisture advection will persist throughout the day, with PWAT values ranging from 150 to 250 percent of normal for this time of year. A weak southern-stream disturbance is expected to track just south of the forecast area, though precipitation chances should remain low as the better forcing for ascent remains displaced to the south. Given the increased moisture within the lower to middle levels, along with some weak synoptic-scale ascent, considerable cloud cover is expected across the area Saturday. Highs should remain in the lower 60s across southern and eastern Nebraska, where the greatest cloud cover is expected, with middle 60s farther northwest where more clearing is possible. Overnight lows Saturday night should remain in the middle to upper 40s, as persistent low-level moisture and cloud cover limit radiational cooling.

Sunday, the western longwave trough is expected to evolve into a closed upper-level low across the Desert Southwest, resulting in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft across the central Plains. Much of Sunday should remain dry, though increasing southeasterly surface winds will support continued moisture advection, with dewpoints potentially reaching the middle 50s by Sunday afternoon. Considerable cloud cover is expected to persist, especially as moisture continues to increase ahead of the approaching system. This should limit daytime warming, with highs generally in the lower 60s across the area. By Sunday evening into the overnight hours, model guidance indicates a strengthening low-level jet, increasing upper- level divergence, and enhanced warm air advection and frontogenetical forcing within the lower to middle levels. These features, combined with increasing moisture transport ahead of a developing lee-side surface low across the central High Plains, should provide sufficient forcing for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area. Given the anomalously moist air mass and potentially strong synoptic-scale ascent, locally heavy rainfall may be possible, particularly where stronger forcing becomes established. Instability currently appears limited, partially due to relatively warm temperatures aloft and weak mid- level lapse rates, which should keep the overall severe weather threat low. However, with strong vertical wind shear expected, a few stronger thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially if sufficient instability develops ahead of the surface low. Confidence is increasing in more widespread precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning, though uncertainty remains regarding the placement of the heaviest rainfall.

Monday into the middle of next week, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution and eventual track of the upper- level system. The GFS/GEFS suite continues to favor a stronger and more northerly solution, while the ECMWF/EPS suite generally supports a farther south track, which could limit precipitation potential across portions of the forecast area beyond Monday morning. Recent global model trends have also begun to suggest a more pronounced split-flow pattern, with limited interaction between the northern- and southern-stream disturbances. If this solution materializes, the strongest upper-level forcing could remain displaced north and south of the region, limiting the potential for more widespread precipitation behind the surface low. In contrast, previous model runs had suggested greater interaction between the northern and southern streams, potentially resulting in a deeper and more amplified storm system. Such a scenario could support stronger forcing for ascent across the central Plains, including the potential for a more organized deformation zone on the northwest side of the system. This would favor a longer duration of precipitation across portions of western and north-central Nebraska. The strength and placement of the upper-level ridge across southern Canada will also play an important role in the eventual track of the system, as a stronger ridge could favor a farther south storm track and potentially shift the greatest precipitation chances away from the forecast area. Given these competing scenarios, confidence remains low regarding precipitation coverage and duration Monday into early next week. While confidence is increasing in widespread precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning, the potential for additional precipitation beyond that period remains considerably more uncertain. Trends will continue to be monitored as model guidance begins to converge on a more consistent solution. In addition to the precipitation potential, strengthening northwest winds may become a concern Monday into Tuesday as the surface low progresses eastward and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Depending on the strength and track of the surface low, wind gusts exceeding 50 mph may be possible, though confidence in the exact magnitude remains limited. Cooler temperatures are also expected early next week, particularly north and west of the surface low, as colder air moves into the region. However, a significant intrusion of colder air is not currently favored, as the overall upper-level pattern should continue to support a predominantly Pacific air mass across the region, limiting the southward transport of colder Canadian air. As a result, temperatures should remain near normal for early November despite the expected cooling trend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the daytime on Thursday for area terminals.

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies with only occasional passing mid and high level clouds. Winds will gradually favor the south with stronger gusts across northern Nebraska nearing 20 to 25 knots. Later tonight, low stratus will invade from the south and should bring about degradation to MVFR and eventually IFR conditions for southwest Nebraska. This will include the KLBF airspace, though confidence in precise timing and magnitudes is low at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.