textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain around 20 to 25 degrees above normal the next few days, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- A dry line on Wednesday brings multiple weather risks. West of the dry line, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible due to low humidity and gusty winds. East of the dry line, thunderstorms are possible, with the risk for some storms to be severe.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions may develop Thursday, with elevated concerns continuing into Friday.

- Increasing precipitation chances for the weekend, along with cooler temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Winds are expected to decrease this evening as a low level inversion develops across the region. Afterwards, fairly light and variable winds are expected across the region. With the lighter winds overnight, critical fire weather conditions are also expected to decrease. However, relative humidity recovery overnight will be poor, with humidity values only rebounding around 40 to 50 percent.

Upper level ridging and anomalous 850 mb temperatures remain in place over the next few days, which will help bring our daily highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. These temperatures remain roughly 20 to 25 degrees above seasonal average for late April across western and north central Nebraska. The poor overnight humidity recovery combined with well above average temperatures will lead to very low humidity values across western and north central Nebraska tomorrow. In fact, most areas are expected to see afternoon humidity values fall to less than 15 percent, with potential for single digit relative humidity values across southwest Nebraska. Winds are expected to remain on the lighter side tomorrow, with winds mostly between a southwesterly to southeasterly direction. Peak gusts are expected to be around 20 mph for a few hours in the afternoon. Despite the anomalous heat and very low humidity, the lighter winds should limit critical fire weather concerns for tomorrow. However, this combination of hot, dry conditions even with the light wind will bring at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Although conditions do not appear to be critical tomorrow, care should still be taken with any flame or spark source!

Attention then turns to Wednesday, which looks to be an active weather day across western and north central Nebraska. Model guidance continues to suggest a strong push of moisture across eastern and central Nebraska, which may bring dewpoints in the 50s across the region. To the west, very low dewpoints are expected, which will set up a dry line across western Nebraska. While confidence is high in a dry line developing across the region, confidence in the placement of the dry line remains low.

For areas west of the dry line, expect afternoon relative humidity values in the 10 to 20 percent range. This low humidity combined with well above seasonal temperatures and very gusty southerly winds are expected to create near critical to critical fire weather concerns, with greatest concern across western Nebraska. Will continue to keep a close eye on forecast trends, but as for now, expecting winds of 20 to 25 mph out of the south, with peak gusts up to 45 mph through the afternoon hours. Currently, there are no fire weather headlines in effect for the North Platte CWA for Wednesday. However, headlines may be needed in the next few forecast cycles, especially if confidence can increase in the dry line location. As with today, regardless of whether a watch or warning is in effect, extreme care should be taken with any flame or spark producing sources!

To the east of the dry line, expecting more ample low level moisture and very warm surface temperatures. The very warm temperatures, even with more ample dewpoints, will cause areas of lower relative humidity. This area of low humidity will also experience gusty winds, so cannot completely rule out a fire weather threat ahead of the dry line. However, given the better moisture, there is suggestion of convective initiation along the dry line, and the current forecast soundings and hodographs suggest that supercells will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in not only where the dry line sets up, but also on how much mixing occurs along the dry line. This will largely impact where thunderstorms develop as well as any potential severe threats with thunderstorms. For what it is worth, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for most of southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Will continue to keep an eye on forecast trends, especially as models come into better agreement on the placement of this dry line. Either way, something to keep in mind is the potential for lightning with these potential storms. Precipitation amounts remain uncertain, so lightning could pose additional fire concerns.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The upper level trough will eject north of the region on Thursday, with the associated deep low pressure system remaining across the Dakotas. Behind this storm system, strong west to northwest winds will return along with low relative humidity values in the 15 to 20 percent range across much of the area. This will likely lead to near- critical to critical fire weather conditions developing once again.

Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 60s across the northwest portion of the CWA to the mid 70s further southeast. A cooldown is expected Friday, with highs in the low 50s to low 60s across the area. Fire weather concerns could remain an issue Friday afternoon due to low relative humidity values and gusty northwest winds.

Heading into the weekend, another southern stream trough will move into the southwestern United States. Moisture advection ahead of this system, along with strengthening mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis, could support precipitation from Saturday night through Monday. Currently, NBM probabilities show a decent signal for precipitation across southern portions of the CWA, while the NBM 75th and 90th percentiles suggest a more widespread precipitation potential across the entire area.

Current model guidance places the area on the backside of this system, so any northward or southward shift would have a significant impact on where the better precipitation potential sets up. There remains considerable uncertainty with this system, but confidence is increasing in at least some precipitation potential across the area. Highs over the weekend will remain on the cool side, generally in the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. The cirrus cloud deck will clear out late this evening with winds quickly diminishing, becoming light and variable lasting through Tuesday morning. Light southeast winds, 5 - 10 kts will settle in mid-day Tuesday and last through the evening with some gusts of 15 - 20 kts over north-central Nebraska possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Red Flag conditions are expected to persist the rest of this afternoon into the evening across most of western and north central Nebraska, especially areas north of Interstate 80. By this evening, a low level inversion is expected to develop, which will quickly cause winds to decrease in speed. Expecting mostly light and variable winds overnight. While winds do decrease, relative humidity recovery is expected to be very poor overnight, with most areas rebounding to around 40 to 50 percent. Winds remain light tomorrow, which should limit critical fire weather concerns. However, temperatures climb around 20 to 25 degrees above average, with widespread humidity values less than 15 percent. This will be cause for at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

Very breezy conditions are expected both Wednesday and Thursday, with potential for near critical to critical fire weather conditions both days. Wednesday's threat will largely be driven by the location of a dry line across western and north central Nebraska. Areas west of the dry line have much higher confidence in reaching critical criteria, while there is some question for areas east of the dry line due to a potential for better moisture. Thursday, expecting dry conditions across most of the region, with better potential to reach critical fire weather criteria. However, much will depend on how the weather pattern develops on Wednesday, especially if potential thunderstorms bring wetting precipitation.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209-219.