textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to high confidence in severe thunderstorm potential late this afternoon and evening.

- Low to moderate confidence in light precipitation arriving Thursday evening across the Pine Ridge and spreading southeast throughout the night.

- Precipitation chances continue to look favorable Friday night through the weekend. Beneficial amounts continue to look more favorable.

- Wet snow is possible Sunday, mainly across far northwest Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

The main weather story in the short term will be the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An upper level trough and resulting frontal boundary will push through the region will help to initiate thunderstorms as early as mid-afternoon across the Panhandle and into the Sandhills. While low level moisture will become limited across portions of this region early afternoon, there is indication that a surge of higher dewpoints just ahead of the front. This should provide enough moisture to get convection developing. Still there is some concern on location of initiation which may determine how much of north central Nebraska is affected. At this time, there will be a ribbon of higher instability across the eastern Panhandle where the greatest confidence is expected for development. This is also the area where the surge of higher moisture will be, adding to confidence in initiation in this area. Storms will be mainly discrete supercells with the potential for gusty winds being the main threat. With limited QPF from these storms (a tenth or less) there is also a concern for some dry lightning. This could be potentially problematic for fire concerns especially in areas that have not received much moisture over the last week or so and where green-up is slow to start this spring. Instability will wane as the evening progresses with the best potential for severe storms being between 01Z and 05Z. As storms push east into the early Thursday morning hours and encounter a less stable environment, they will diminish and outside of some few lingering showers, the severe threat is not anticipated to prevail much past 06Z.

Heading into Thursday, a return to drier conditions is expected behind the departing front. Still, lingering lower level moisture should keep the majority of Thursday under cloudy or mostly cloudy skies. Some mild cold air advection from the north into the region will also result in some cooler temperatures for Thursday. Expect highs to range from the upper 60s in the Pine Ridge to the mid 70s into portions of central Nebraska.

The next chance for light precipitation will occur when a weak trough moves into western South Dakota and into northwest Nebraska Thursday night. Current thinking is that precipitation will push into northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge by Thursday evening starting as all rain. However, as temperatures fall to near and below freezing overnight, rain will change over to a rain/snow mix and even all snow in some of the higher terrain. Little to no accumulations are expected, though. Precipitation will continue to push southeast through sunrise Friday morning, with any precip outside of the Pine Ridge region remaining as all liquid.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A deep upper level low pressure system will be centered across southern Canada on Friday. An embedded shortwave will rotate around the low across the northern/central Rockies during the day and emerge into the Central Plains Friday night. Expecting at least scattered shower development Friday afternoon into Friday night as ascent increases. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid in some weak elevated CAPE, and could see an isolated thunderstorm or two along with the shower activity Friday night.

The southern Canada upper low will weaken as it shifts northeastward during the day Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper level trough will moving onshore the west coast, with flow aloft becoming southwest across our area. A warm front develops eastward across Kansas from a deepening eastern Colorado surface through the day Saturday. Moisture availability looks favorable Saturday night through Sunday. Strong Gulf moisture advection will be underway Saturday and Saturday night across the Southern Plains. The warm front will nudge northward some into southern Nebraska during the day Sunday. Moist southeast upslope flow will combine with strong mid- level FGEN, and brings what looks to be a decent precipitation event Saturday night though Sunday. ENS mean probabilities for at least one half inch of QPF have continued to increase, with the latest 22/00Z suite giving a 60-80% chance across the heart of the Sandhills into central and north central Nebraska. Across western into southwest Nebraska the chances diminish slightly but still look favorable (above 50%). GEFS is similar, and in the same location, which leads to a continued increase in confidence that a soaking rainfall looks probable. As far as the wet snow potential, ensemble probabilities are moderately high for 1-2" of wet snow accumulation, most likely across far northwest Nebraska especially in and bear the Pine Ridge.

Monday into Tuesday of next week, the pattern appears to remain unsettled. Near or below freezing temperatures are expected Monday morning west of Highway 83. This will be the result of strong cold air advection behind a cold front that dives southeast through the area early Monday morning. At least a slight chance for showers continues both Monday and Tuesday...as a couple of weak disturbances follow in the wake of the Saturday night and Sunday system. Highs will moderate by Tuesday after a chilly breezy/windy day Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 648 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Mid- morning onward south winds increase to 20-35 kts. VFR conditions will prevail area-wide through the day. There will be an increase in mid and high-level clouds from late morning into the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into the evening hours, especially along and west of Highway 83.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska today. Gusty south winds, up to 45 mph, will combine with very warm temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Although Gulf moisture/humidity will be returning northward into the area, initially, it will be shallow, and dew points will mix out during the late morning through mid afternoon before the deeper moisture arrives by evening. Lowest humidity values will range from 10-15% across western Nebraska, up to 18-25% across central and into north central Nebraska. In addition, the potential for dry lightning late this afternoon and into this evening, mainly west of Highway 83 with any initial isolated thunderstorm development. This threat should wane this evening as higher humidity/dew points arrive on gusty south to southeast winds. Also, very strong, possibly damaging wind gusts will be possible near or in any thunderstorm late this afternoon and evening.

A wind shift occurs overnight tonight as a cold front/dry line quickly moves eastward across the area. Winds shift to the west- northwest as this passes. This sets the stage for more low humidity and gusty west-northwest winds during the Thursday. Likely will see critical conditions over most if not all of the area on Thursday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.