textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to warm this week, with heat by mid to late week above average across the region. Highs by late week are expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Gusty winds this week combined with the hot and dry conditions may bring a return of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, especially across the Sandhills and Panhandle.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Today and tonight, an upper level ridge currently centered over southern Wyoming will lift into central Wyoming and northwest South Dakota by early this evening. Surface high pressure across the southern Great Lakes into Iowa and Missouri, and low pressure over the central Rockies will bring south southeasterly winds across the area today from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph across the western Sandhills. Highs today from the upper 90s far northwest Sandhills, 90 to 95 remainder of north central, and 90 to low 90s southwest. While highs will be very warm in the 90s, they are only about 3 to 8 degrees above normal, except near 10 above normal Gordon and Rushville. Much hotter temperatures above 100 will be to our north and west (WY, MT and western Dakotas). Skies will be sunny across the area today. Tonight, a light south wind 5 to 15 mph with lows in the mid 60s and clear skies.

Monday and Monday night, the upper ridge center will strengthen to near 6000 meters at 500mb across eastern SD into MN. Despite such as strong upper ridge to our north, highs across western NE will be nearly the same, in the low to mid 90s, with highs again in the upper 90s far northwest Sandhills. H85 temperature anomalies are slightly below normal across Kansas and Missouri today and Monday, so when advecting north into Nebraska, this is attributing to highs not being as hot. Southerly winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph across the entire forecast area with gusts to 30 mph portions of the central Sandhills/north central. Skies will again be sunny. Lows Monday night mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Upper level ridging is expected to persist the rest of the week, keeping western and north central Nebraska in a warm, dry pattern. The warmest temperatures aloft are expected to continue to stream over the Intermountain West and Dakotas, which will bring very warm temperatures aloft across western and north central Nebraska as well. With this occurring, heat will continue to build this week, with the hottest temperatures expected by late week, where highs are most likely to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s across a large portion of the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday, guidance continues to suggest 850 mb temperature anomalies around 3 to 5 degC warmer than usual, with the warmer temperatures expected across northern Nebraska. This is in line with the latest forecast highs, suggesting lower to mid 90s basically Highway 2 and south, with highs in the mid to upper 90s north of Highway 2. While this is warmer than usual, these highs continue to remain between the 75th and 90th percentile compared to local climatology, so not too unusual for mid July. In fact, when compared to climatology, highs are only 5 to 10 degrees above normal, and the highs around 10 degrees above normal are mostly contained to the Highway 20 corridor. Still, given the prolonged period of heat this week, folks should take precaution, especially if sensitive to heat or working outdoors.

Thursday into the weekend, expect temperatures to get even warmer. By late week, 850 mb temperature anomalies around 5 to 8 degC above normal are expected, bringing surface highs around 10 to 15 degF above normal across most of the region. While guidance the last few days was suggesting potential for a late week ridge breakdown, newest guidance suggests the ridge amplifies late week, keeping hot conditions around into the weekend and continuing to limit any precipitation chances. With this extra push of heat, Thursday onward will bring our greatest chances of breaking 100 degrees this week, with the latest forecast bringing highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s across most of the region. This remains better reflected in GEFS ensemble guidance, as the European ensembles continue to favor cooler temperatures which seem less likely given the strength of the ridge and anomalous temperatures aloft. Given the latest forecast, thinking that if any heat headlines are needed this week, it will most likely be late week, but will continue to closely monitor how highs play out this week.

In addition to the heat, will also be keeping a close eye on the growing potential for fire weather concerns as the week progresses. With higher than average temperatures and no precipitation expected for several days, this could aid in quickly drying out any recent moisture. Also, with the strong heating, expecting fairly strong mixing in the environment, allowing stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface. Conditions look to remain quite gusty Tuesday onward, where afternoon wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are possible each day, especially across the Sandhills, with more widespread gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible. As heat builds in and relative humidity lowers, this could bring a return of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, especially later in the week after several days of this pattern. Will continue to be closely monitoring this situation throughout the next several forecast cycles.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. Southerly winds will increase later this morning, becoming gusty across most of western Nebraska. Peak afternoon gusts up to 25 knots are expected. By the evening, as an inversion develops, expect that gusty winds will decrease. However, winds are expected to remain near steady out of the south and southeast overnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.