textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms remain possible each afternoon/evening Thursday and Friday, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concerns.

- Drier conditions arrive for this weekend with a brief return to low and middle 90s on Saturday.

- Warmer temperatures appear likely to arrive around the middle of next week with 40-70% potential for temperatures to exceed 100F Tue-Thu.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Currently, conditions are largely quiet across central and western Nebraska. Lingering low clouds hover over central Nebraska with greater clearing to the west across the Sandhills into the Panhandle region. This is associated with a passing shortwave trough bringing rain and thunderstorms across much of south central and southeast Nebraska. Behind the trough axis, subsidence is helping to erode the lower clouds and this is evident on recent satellite imagery which shows the cu field dissipating. Temperatures ranged from upper 70s where clouds were more prevalent into the afternoon and lower 80s in the west. Expect temperatures to climb a few more degrees this afternoon with dry conditions expected to persist through at least late afternoon.

For late this afternoon/tonight...attention will turn to western Nebraska for the potential for isolated thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Latest satellite imagery shows vigorous cumulus and heaps across southeast Wyoming up through southeast Montana. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary emanates east-northeast across far northwest Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota. As diurnal mixing continues, convective temperatures should be breached effectively removing any lingering capping inversion and storms should develop in areas with favorable orographic. Subsidence behind the departing shortwave over southeast Nebraska may hinder development somewhat but CAMs continue to advocate for a few storms to reach the Sandhills and portions of southwest Nebraska this evening. Forecast soundings depict large inverted-v profiles with weak winds beneath the LCL. This suggests primarily a damaging wind gust potential. Though shear is stronger up north across South Dakota, forecast soundings show reasonable mid- level shear with largely straight profiles. This suggests a potential for splitting supercells capable of severe hail as well. Storms should be ongoing to the west by 5-6pm CDT and move into our western zones around 6-8pm CDT. Expectation is for fairly progressive west to east motions with a quick weakening of activity towards Midnight CDT. Some isolated showers and general thunderstorms may persist into early Friday morning, but this is not expected to be severe. Lows tonight will remain on the mild side with values in the middle to upper 50s. Did add a mention of patchy fog across largely central Nebraska tonight into early Friday. Both SREF/HREF highlight 50%+ potential for visibilities to fall below 1SM. Raw HRRR output suggests a FG.Y may need considered this evening but will defer to later shifts once confidence in magnitude of impacts improves.

Friday/Friday Night...rain and thunderstorms are again possible during the late afternoon and evening. The frontal boundary from Thursday will be forced south from thunderstorm activity as a surface low takes shape over southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico. This boundary should settle around a MCK to LXN to GRI line. Warmer temperatures will reside to the south, with upper 80s to lower 90s, while areas to the north should only manage to reach the middle 80s. Strong theta-e fetch at h85 will nose into the boundary off the surface and lead to fairly rapid thunderstorms development in the afternoon and evening hours. This will focus along and just north of the aforementioned surface boundary. Shear vectors are largely parallel to the surface boundary and this will favor fairly quick upscale growth. CAMs and mid-range models suggest development will favor eastern Nebraska with potential to extend further west towards central Nebraska. This puts the local area on the western periphery of any development with about a 50/50 split in NWP guidance giving us anything regarding rain/thunderstorms. Because of this, PoPs were kept low at or below 20% with even lower confidence in seeing severe weather. Temperatures will again be on the milder side with lows ranging from the middle 50s to near 60F.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

This weekend...much warmer temperatures will briefly arrive as conditions dry out. Amplifying ridge will lead to rapid height rises across the Central and Northern Plains. A thermal ridge will nose in as southwesterly mid-level flow develops on the upstream side of the high pressure aloft. Deepening low pressure across northwest Wyoming will strengthen southerly flow leading to breezy conditions. Temperatures at h7 will reach the 12-14C range as 1000-500 thickness values exceed 580 dam. NBM median output shows upper 90s for southwest Nebraska with higher percentile outputs reaching triple digits. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) shows 0.6-0.8 values across the Sandhills into the Panhandle, further illustrating the anomalous warmth expected. Current forecast highs call from middle to upper 90s west of Highway 83 with lower 90s to the east. While falling short of conventional head headline criteria, concern is increasing given it's a weekend and one of the first heat concern days of the season. Folks are advised caution if expecting to be outdoors for extended periods of time. While not a conventional ridge breakdown, an embedded disturbance within the ridging aloft will lift north and east through the Southern and Central Plains. While no significant airmass change is expected, passing upper-level troughing and an influx of greater moisture should support not only slightly increased precipitation chances but a 4-6F cooldown across the board. Even so, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will still be something for folks to consider as they make their plans. Evening thunderstorms are possible as moisture continues to stream into the area and a sharp dryline stalls across the High Plains. PoPs increase quickly in the evening, particularly west of Highway 83. Adequate instability and deep-layer shear appears adequate for a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms so stay tuned.

Monday and beyond...temperatures again begin to moderate early next work week as ridging returns behind the lifting shortwave trough. EFI continues to highlight increasingly anomalous heat towards the middle of the week with 0.6-0.8 and non-zero Shift of Tails values arriving for Tuesday and Wednesday. NBM highlights 40%+ potential for exceeding 100F by Tuesday, peaking around 50-70% on Wednesday. The latest forecast highs approach record levels for Wednesday (06/10) and this bears watching over the next few days. Interestingly, 100F+ days have only occurred on 06/10 at VTN 4 times previously, most recently in 1976. With the current forecast high of 101F, this would be the earliest instance of a 100F+ observed high temperature at Valentine since 2020 and nearly a month before the average first 100F+ date in the site's history. As broad troughing becomes established across the northwest, enhanced mid-level flow will develop and cross the Rockies overtop a fairly humid airmass across the Plains. This should set the area up for the potential for organized convection. Whether this remains north of the area or brings some impacts locally remains to be seen and will likely hinge on smaller scale local influences, of which will be very difficult to glean at this range.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 602 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Thunderstorms are expected to dissipate as they approach the terminal this evening. However, mid level cloudiness will increase as storms decay off to the west. Ceilings may fall to around 15000 FT AGL with broken to overcast coverage. Skies will then scatter out by late evening with cloud decks around 25000 FT AGL. For the KVTN terminal: There will be an increasing threat for thunderstorms later this evening with the greatest threat between 03z and 07z. Some gusts may reach up to 40 KTS INVOF storms with visibilities as low as 3 to 5SM with the stronger storms. The threat for thunderstorms will end after 07z with broken mid level cloudiness persisting overnight. Ceilings will range from 10000 to 12000 FT AGL. Skies will then clear Friday morning with scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.