textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures Friday and Saturday from 85 to around 90 across the forecast area. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions each afternoon across the western Sandhills.

- A weak cold front will move through the area Sunday, with cooler temperatures in the mid 60s to upper 70s Monday and 60s to near 70 Tuesday.

- Low precipitation chances Monday night over the northwest Sandhills, with precipitation chances increasing across the remainder of western and north central Nebraska Tuesday night and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Tonight...the upper flow will become zonal as an upper trough moves from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest. A strong thermal ridge will reside over the Central Plains. Surface winds become light and variable, though overnight lows remain mild from 50 to 55. These lows are well above normal from 15 to near 20 degrees above normal.

Friday...the upper flow will become southwesterly as an upper trough and closed low across the Pacific Northwest deepens into the Western U.S. Surface low pressure will persist across the Northern and Central High Plains, bringing breezy southerly winds 15 to 25 mph by Friday afternoon, and highs 85 to near 90. Some guidance supports highs could reach the lower 90s across much of the west. The record high for North Platte is 95 degrees. Records for Imperial, Broken Bow and Valentine are 91 degrees Friday. Based on current forecast trends, Imperial and Valentine have the best chances of hitting a record high on Friday. Southerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph Friday afternoon across the central and east.

Friday night...a strong low level jet, east of a surface trough of low pressure over the Nebraska Panhandle, will lead to a well mixed boundary layer Friday night into Saturday morning. With a mixed boundary layer, mild temperatures will continue into the overnight hours and Saturday morning. The latest NBM ensemble forecast has a low of 61 for LBF Saturday morning. This would be a record high minimum temperature for October 10th (record is 59).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Saturday, ridging aloft will break down. With the ridge breakdown and a cold front dropping through the Black Hills Saturday afternoon, very warm air will reside across western and north central Nebraska. Another very warm day is expected across the forecast area. Southwesterly winds will be strong at 20 to 35 mph across the east, and 10 to 20 mph across the western Sandhills. NBM forecast highs mainly 85 to 92. Highs could be a few degrees warmer than this, supported by the latest MAV guidance. As for records Saturday, they are 88, 93, 94 and 95 degrees for Broken Bow, North Platte, Imperial and Valentine respectively.

Sunday, the upper trough will persist across the West Coast, while upper ridging returns to the Southern and Central Plains. A weak cold front will move through the area. Highs temperatures will be cooler, yet still 5 to 15 degrees above normal, from the upper 60s to mid 70s northwest Sandhills to the upper 70s to low 80s (near 85 far southwest). Winds will turn to the north and northeast in the afternoon 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday night into Monday, the surface front will stall across southern NE into central WY. Precipitation will remain off to our northwest across portions of WY and western SD. With the location of the surface front, highs have trended warmer from the mid 60s far northern NE, to upper 60s and mid 70s (near 80 far southwest). A slight chance for showers Monday night across the northwest Sandhills as a weak disturbance and cold front move into the area. The flow aloft will transition to southwesterly as a broad trough of low pressure deepens across the western U.S Tuesday into Wednesday. A shortwave trough may eject northeast across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with chance POPs. The deterministic 12Z GFS shows western NE in the dry slot, to limit any chances for showers. The ECMWF remains more favorable, with the shortwave trough slower, deeper and further east. The NBM 24-hr probability of 0.10 inch or greater is from 40 to 50 percent. A slight warmup to the upper 60s to mid 70s Wednesday. A portion of the upper trough will push east across the Northern Plains Thursday, driving a cold front through western NE. Highs cooler from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low chance POPS linger into Wednesday night and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

A few to scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL will drift across the area today into this evening with mainly clear skies expected overnight into Friday morning. Winds will be from the south near 10KT this afternoon. Gusts near 20KT until 22Z at the KLBF terminal. Winds will diminish this evening with light south winds below 10KT through the remainder of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns for the western Sandhills on Friday. A surface trough will be located near the NE/WY border. This will bring dewpoints down into the upper 30s and lower 40s near and west of Highway 61 for a few hours during the afternoon, with humidity down into the upper teens and lower 20s. A south southwest wind is expected to range from 10 to 20 mph, with a few higher gusts possible. The stronger winds will be near and east of Highway 83, at 15 to 25 mph with a few gusts to 30 mph. No Fire Weather headlines are out at this time, as winds gusts and duration of low humidity fall short of Red Flag conditions.

Saturday, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns again for the western Sandhills. Dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s do push further east across Cherry county, with the area of concern for areas near and west of Imperial through Valentine. Minimum RH Saturday afternoon will approach 15 to 20 percent for a few hours. However, south to southwest wind gusts are expected to remain below critical criteria of 25 mph. Stronger winds are expected from Ainsworth and Broken BoW and east. However, minimum RH in these areas will range from 25 to 35 percent. Will mention the elevated to near critical fire weather concerns in the HWO and fire weather forecast.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.