textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog will persist through late this morning across much of southwest and central Nebraska.

- Light rain is expected primarily across portions of western Nebraska today. HOwever, any accumulations are expected to remain light (0.10" or less)

- Moderate confidence in track of a late week system which has the potential to bring rain/snow to much of the region.

- Moderate confidence in thunderstorm potential on Thursday evening, some could be strong to briefly severe.

- Moderate confidence in a dry weekend with a return to above normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Currently, fog is overspreading much of southwest and central Nebraska, within an area of moist southeasterly flow. Visibilities have dropped below 1 mile for portions of south central and central Nebraska already, and these very low visibilities are expected to expand in coverage over the next few hours. With this thinking in mind, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through early this afternoon across much of southwest and central Nebraska. Drizzle will also be possible through late morning, with an expectation that temperatures will remain just above freezing and negate the threat for any freezing drizzle.

Further west, showers and a few thunderstorms persist across portions of southeastern Wyoming, within a corridor of weak elevated instability (MUCAPE ~100-250J/kg) and steep mid-level lapse rates. Surface low pressure continues to deepen across eastern Colorado, and is expected to eject southeast today, reaching the Red River by this afternoon. Aloft, the mid-level low will also move south through the day today, roughly along the lee of the Rockies. THis will lead to increasing FGEN and associated isentropic ascent, primarily across western Nebraska and the Front Range. Forcing looks to maximize locally for areas near and west of HWY 61, in closest proximity to the system passing off to the west. Confidence in rain wanes with eastward extent across the area, due to lesser ascent into central and north central Nebraska. Even with better forcing across western Nebraska, any rainfall amounts look to remain light today. HREF probabilities of any precipitation (>0.01") only climb to ~30-40% for areas east of HWY 61 this afternoon. Increasing that to the probability for >0.1" sees probabilities fall to <10% east of HWY 61, and only 30-50% west of HWY 61. In all, areas of western Nebraska are expected to see 0.1" or less of precipitation today. As for precipitation type, guidance remains in good agreement that it should all fall as rain. This is supported by forecast soundings, with low levels remaining above freezing this afternoon. Temperatures are expected to gradually climb out of the middle 30s and into the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon, further supporting the all rain p-type.

Precipitation quickly exits the area early tomorrow morning as the system departs, bringing a brief return of drier conditions to the area. Heights rise in the wake of the departing low, and shortwave ridging slides through aloft by tomorrow night. Low level warm advection returns as well, boosting highs into the lower 60s under sunny skies. These mild temperatures do push relative humidity values to as low as 20-30% tomorrow afternoon, though winds are expected to remain light (<20mph) from the southwest. Lows tomorrow night fall into the lower 30s, as weak warm advection persists across the area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 310 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Weak upper level ridging continues on Thursday keeping conditions dry and temperatures mild as warm air advection returns to the region. Highs will return to mid to upper 60s with even some locations south of I-80 seeing into the low 70s.

The next developing upper level low arrives Thursday evening lasting into Saturday morning. As the low deepens and pushes through Nebraska, much of the region could see widespread rain/snow. Rain will be the dominant precip type on Thursday night across the entire region. However, as colder air begins to filter in behind the deepening low, rain will likely change to a rain/snow mix or all snow on Friday mainly across northwest Nebraska. The rain/snow line may even reach as far south as the I-80 corridor and as far east as US-281 by Friday evening. This is expected to be short lived though as precipitation quickly pushes out of the area by Midnight Saturday morning, although, there may be some lingering snow across the northern Sandhills through the overnight hours. The cooler air pushing into the area will result in chilly temperatures on Friday ranging from the low 40s in northwest Nebraska to the upper 50s across Frontier county. Low temperatures will also drop back down into the upper teens to low 20s on Friday night.

This system also brings a potential for some convection on Thursday evening. Current guidance suggests there will be some modest instability with CAPE values 500 to 800 J/kg and some steeper lapse rates by the evening to support some thunderstorm development. The majority of the severe potential at this time appears to be just off to the south and east of our area. Still, there should be enough support for some stronger storms across portions of north central Nebraska. Current SPC outlooks highlight this same area with a marginal risk as well, increasing confidence in the potential for at the very least some stronger, briefly severe storms. Will continue to monitor this over the next few days.

Precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning with a return to drier conditions along with milder temperatures through the weekend and into early next week. Thanks to a surge of warm air advection into the central Plains, expect highs to quickly rebound back into the mid 50s to low 60s on Saturday rising into the upper 60s to low 70s on Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Fog could be dense at times through mid-morning with visibility restrictions down to 2 miles at times. Rain is still expected to overspread the region this morning pushing south and east into the afternoon hours. Expect some lower visibility due to the rain. Rain will continue through the afternoon before pushing off to the east. Conditions will gradually improve through the evening returning to VFR overnight. Across northern Nebraska, fog and rain is expected to stay south of KVTN. VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for NEZ027>029-037-038-057>059-069>071.