textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence in patchy fog across portions of north central Nebraska early Wednesday morning.

- Moderate to high confidence in some isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening with a slight severe risk.

- Moderate confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again Thursday night.

- Rain/thunderstorm chances are likely Friday into at least the first of the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall could occur during this timeframe.

- Below normal high temperatures are expected Friday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving into northern Nebraska and are expected to push southeastward through the early morning hours. Significant instability still exists across the region which should sustain any thunderstorms moving south out of South Dakota into Nebraska. These storms will have the potential to produce some very large hail, as seen earlier in the evening, as well as damaging wind gusts. These storms will quickly exit the region by 10Z to 11Z giving way to a quieter Wednesday morning. However, there will be a patchy fog potential behind the departing storms across north central Nebraska. Expect some visibility reductions to 5 miles, however, would not be surprised to still see some lower visibilities across portions of the area that received recent rainfall and especially in low lying areas or along river valleys. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions if traveling Wednesday morning across north central Nebraska. Due to the light and relatively patchy nature, fog should dissipate by mid morning giving way to a mostly clear and dry forecast for the morning and early afternoon.

Active weather will persist through Thursday as a series of disturbances impact the region. A developing low pressure system over Kansas today will allow for some thunderstorm development across the Nebraska region. Here, ample instability (CAPE values close to 1000 J/kg) will exist with steep low level lapse rates as well as strong shear providing the perfect environment for severe storms to develop. Current expectation is that storms will initiate by mid to late afternoon remaining discrete initially with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats. As storms push eastward, they will become more scattered in nature becoming more of a heavy rain threat. At this time, not anticipating widespread flooding, but some area creeks and streams could see rises leading to some localized minor flooding. Storms will persist through the overnight hours becoming dry by sunrise Thursday morning.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Thursday, with a mostly dry forecast throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorm chances return by late afternoon and into the evening as peak heating occurs and instability hits a maximum. At this time, instability does appear weaker than the past few days, but some stronger to briefly severe storms cannot be ruled out. These storms will be pretty short-lived, lasting only a few hours before pushing off to the east giving way to a drier forecast through sunrise Friday morning.

As far as temperatures go, another warm day is expected today with highs slightly above normal (low to mid 90s south of I-80) to near normal (mid 80s to upper 80s everywhere else). Temperatures fall back below normals ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s on Thursday. Overnight lows also take a dip, dropping from the low to mid 60s tonight to the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday and Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 142 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Persistent upper level ridging will remain anchored across the southeast CONUS Friday. The center of the upper high will gradually translate back westward into the desert southwest by early next week. ENS/GEFS mean PWAT values are very high during this timeframe, as monsoonal/subtropical moisture aloft flows northeastward from western Mexico on the northwest periphery of the upper level high. ENS continues to suggest PWAT values greater than 1.7" (which would be exceeding the the 90th percentile) will be in place both Friday and Saturday. Several waves/pertubations will be embedded within the southwest flow aloft, and rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Friday and Saturday. Upslope flow behind the front along with at least some instability will set the stage for locally heavy rainfall. Mid and upper flow supports some training/backbuilding potential, which could localize heavy rainfall. The 11/12Z ENS mean QPF through Monday has an average of 1.5 to 2.5 inches area wide. Locally heavier amounts will be possible where any training or backbuilding of occurs.

Temperatures will be below normal during the Friday through Monday timeframe. This is due to a considerable amount of cloud cover and easterly low-level upslope flow. High temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s are expected through this period. Some moderation is expected Tuesday with most areas in the 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions should prevail much of the day across western and north central Nebraska. Later this afternoon scattered thunderstorms will develop across far western portions of the state. These storms will move eastward this evening. Expect areas of low stratus clouds (MVFR and local IFR) to develop very late tonight after the storms exit the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.