textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday through Monday with the highest threats Thursday and Saturday.

- Temperatures will be well above normal Thursday through Monday with daily highs generally 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Cooler Tuesday and Wednesday with a threat for precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure aloft will migrate from northern Nevada into northern Utah overnight, forcing the upper level ridge axis east into the western Rockies. This will allow warmer air to push into the high plains on Thursday. Lows tonight will be fairly mild with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Warm boundary layer air will transition east from the Panhandle Thursday with afternoon H85 temps reaching around 7C in the east to around 11C in the west and far southwest. Bufkit soundings indicate decent mixing potential Thursday afternoon, when combined with advertised H85 temps and full sun, should yield highs in the 60s across the forecast area. Once again this morning, the NBM initialized with middle 60s for highs for LBF. This was roughly around the 10th%ile of the NBM ensemble this morning. Utilizing the 50th percentile added around 3 to 4 degrees to highs across the board Thursday afternoon. This brought highs more in line with the statistical MET and MAV guidance and better reflects forecast H85 temps for Thursday afternoon. That being said, we could see possible record high temperatures for North Platte and Broken Bow Thursday afternoon. These records are highlighted in the climate section below. As for fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon, forecast minimum RH Thursday afternoon bottoms out between 22 and 25 percent across far southwestern Nebraska and portions of the eastern Panhandle. Wind gusts Thursday afternoon may briefly touch 20 to 25 MPH during peak heating. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon and will highlight this in the FWF and HWO. An arctic trough will slide south across Hudson Bay Thursday night. This will force an arctic cold front into the upper midwest and Great Lakes. The leading edge of this arctic air will begin to impact northeastern Nebraska Friday. In advance of this front, lows Thursday night will be mild once again with readings in the upper 20s to around 30.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Arctic air will nose into the forecast area Friday with forecast H85 temps around 5C to 7C cooler than Thursday afternoon's forecast. The NBM forecast for highs Friday was around the 25th percentile of the NBM ensembles. This forecast was more in line with the MET and MAV guidance, so no changes planned for highs attm. Shifting into the weekend, the cold air in association with the eastern CONUS trough will be forced east by ridging across the western CONUS. Very warm air will push into western and north central Nebraska with H85 temps reaching in the high single digits to lower teensC. The current NBM forecast continues to be on the low end of the NBM ensemble forecast Saturday/Sunday and Monday of lower to middle 60s may be on the cool side. Wouldn't be surprised if we see some 70 degree readings on those days across the area given what the 50%ile temps are in the latest NBM ensembles. Warmer readings will come to an end Monday with cooler temps on tap Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging across the west will de-amplify Monday with a decent cold front expected Monday night across the area. Precipitation chances are increasing as well with the latest NBM forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday and this seems plausible given the lower amplitude flow and mid level forcing located over the central Rockies into the northern Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 548 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail all across western and north central Nebraska through the night and into Thursday morning. Low-level wind shear will become a concern as northwest winds increase just off the surface. Winds at the surface will become northwest around 10kts late tonight and then increase 15kts with gusts to 25kts Thursday afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.