textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence in severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds and heavy rainfall being the main threats.

- Low to moderate confidence in continued near-daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the end of the week.

- High confidence in mild temperatures through the end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Much quieter weather is expected through the short-term as weak upper level ridging builds back across the western Great Plains. While previous forecasts indicated some low probabilities of thunderstorms again tonight across extreme north central Nebraska, it continues to appear less likely this will happen. Any convection that does develop will be east of our area across eastern Nebraska and Iowa. I have therefore removed all mentions of thunderstorms and rain showers from the going forecast to reflect this new guidance giving all of north central and western Nebraska a dry forecast through Monday morning. Stronger westerly winds will continue to gust up to 35 mph through sunset before diminishing. Despite recent rainfall and calm winds overnight, not anticipating any fog concerns as a drier and warmer airmass will keep overnight RH values in the 70 to 85 percent range for most locations inhibiting any low level moisture from condensing.

With the ridge of high pressure, warm air advection will easily continue to push a warmer airmass into the region keeping temperatures above normals for this time of year. Surface highs will remain in the 80s today (normal in the upper 70s) with lows dropping into the low to mid 50s tonight(normal in the low 50s).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Another round of convection is possible on Monday as a shortwave pushes into the region. This shortwave will allow for a surface low to begin to develop across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska/Kansas border region by late afternoon and evening. With increasing moisture to the east and drier air to the west, this system will provide a favorable environment for convection to begin just to the west of our forecast area by late afternoon. Storms will gradually move eastward through the evening before encountering more stable air to the east and dissipating after Midnight CT. While storms my initially be more discrete, by the time they move into Nebraska, expecting them to be more linear in nature. This will indicate the main threats in Nebraska to be mainly damaging winds as well as heavy rainfall with some smaller hail also possible. While widespread flooding is not expected, a heavier shower may result in some minor rises in low lying areas and small streams, especially those that may have received rainfall over an inch over the past weekend.

Beyond Monday, the active weather pattern will continue as a series of shortwaves continue to track through Nebraska creating near-daily rain and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week. At this time the severe risk remains uncertain, but with mild temperatures in the 80s though much of the week and some modest instability across the region, confidence in a stronger or briefly severe storm is high especially in the afternoon and evening when instability is greatest. Stay tuned as we will continue to monitor the environment through this week for the severe potential.

Temperatures through the extended period remain warm and mild as continued WAA pushes into the central Plains. Highs will remain in the 80s with lows in the 50s through next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Some increase in mid-level cloudiness is expected later tonight otherwise skies should be clear. There will likely be a few showers around through at least the morning hours from the mid- cloud deck. Winds will gradually become more from the east during the day Monday at 10-15 kts by afternoon. Scattered late afternoon thunderstorms are likely to develop across the Panhandle into northeast Colorado.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.