textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is possible across north central Nebraska and the Sandhills tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front tracks into the region.

- A slight cool off to seasonal temperatures is expected Thursday and Friday behind the cold front.

- Even cooler temperatures arrive this weekend, with highs in the 40s, as well as chances for light precipitation across southwest and central Nebraska.

- A quick return to seasonal temperatures is expected early next week. However, uncertainty begins to build into the forecast heading into the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

An upper level trough tracks across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region today, with a second trough off the Pacific Coast. This pattern brings upper level ridging across the Intermountain West and western Great Plains, largely supporting fair weather across the region through this evening. However, as the trough to the east continues to dig south, it will help track a surface low further south across the Great Lakes. This low has a fairly expansive cold front tracking across the Plains, and as this low tracks south, expect that the cold front will track south across portions of central Nebraska overnight. Guidance continues to suggest a slight moisture enhancement just ahead of the cold front. While this is not expected to bring precipitation, this additional surge of moisture combined with the light surface winds overnight will support potential fog development. The main areas of concern for fog development will be across portions of north central Nebraska and the Sandhills as the front tracks in overnight. Probabilistic guidance shows around a 50 to 70 percent chance for visibility reductions under half a mile. However, with this tracking along the front, some question remains in how long fog will be able to stick around, especially as cooler, drier air follows the cold front. At this time, confidence is not high enough to go with a Dense Fog Advisory, but will continue to monitor, especially this evening as the front tracks south, to see if an overnight Advisory will be needed.

Throughout Thursday and Thursday night, the aforementioned cold front will continue to sink further south, as a surface high pressure system tracks south from Canada into the northern Plains. Cooler air will continue to pool over portions of north central Nebraska, where daytime highs may only reach into the lower 40s. Across western Nebraska, which should remain just ahead of the front, still some potential for highs to breach the lower 60s, with upper 50s very likely. Overnight, did slightly lower temperatures in the forecast, as skies remain mostly clear with light surface winds. However, with winds mostly expected out of the south and another night with relative humidity values near 100%, only lowered lows 1-2 degrees. This slight adjustment brings forecast lows ranging from 22 degrees in north central Nebraska to 32 degrees across western Nebraska. For reference, climatological lows this time of year are typically lower 20s, so expected overnight temperatures across north central Nebraska are quite normal for November.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

By Friday, the upper level trough across the Great Lakes is expected to become a cut off low, as the Pacific trough attempts to track further inland. This will keep the upper level ridging for Friday, with fairly rinse and repeat temperatures across the region. However, could see some gusty winds across the region Friday afternoon, with peak gusts around 30 mph. However, minimum humidity values are expected to remain above 50 percent (especially given the cooler temperatures), so do not expect this to turn into elevated fire weather conditions at this time.

By the weekend, the upper level pattern is expected to get more complicated. The upper level low is expected to slowly track across the Great Lakes, with the Pacific trough turning into a split flow regime. In the split flow regime, expecting a shortwave to eject across the southern Plains, with a second shortwave tracking into the northern Intermountain West. The southern shortwave is expected to help a low form across the southern Plains, bringing precipitation chances across Kansas and Oklahoma, with guidance suggesting southwest into central Nebraska getting clipped by the northern edge for a few hours. Overall, chances of precipitation remain on the lower end, with highest potential remaining south of Interstate 80. Latest ensemble guidance generally keeps a 30 percent chance for measurable precipitation (with a 40 to 50 percent chance south of Interstate 80) across the region. However, when looking at probabilities of greater than one tenth, percentages are less than 10 percent. All this to say, though there are precipitation chances this weekend, expect very little precipitation will fall if we do get clipped by this system, with a few hundredths at most. Something to keep an eye on for the northernmost extent of the precipitation shield is the potential for some light snow showers overnight Saturday across portions of the Sandhills. However, with very little precipitation expected, also expect very little to no accumulations if snow were to develop. However, cooler air continues to advect into the region, favoring highs in the 40s this weekend across most of the region, with lows remaining in the lower 30s. These forecast highs remain just cooler than our typical highs around 50 degrees. However, lows are expected to remain warmer than average, as typical lows are in the lower 20s.

Early to mid next week, a bit of uncertainty begins to arise behind the split flow pattern. Guidance remains fairly high confidence in ridging returning briefly on Monday, favoring a slight warm up back to seasonal highs in the 50s. This push of warm advection may also usher in gusty southerly winds, so will continue to keep an eye on this period. The uncertainty really picks up by Tuesday, as long range guidance shows disagreement on the placement of another Pacific trough. The European solution remains slightly more progressive, bringing the trough further east than the GFS solution. For Tuesday, this should mostly favor seasonal highs with more potential for gusty winds across the region. By Wednesday, the disparity in solutions brings some cause for concern, as this may have an impact on precipitation chances as well as temperatures. If the slower GFS solution were to occur, precipitation chances remain sparse, with warmer temperatures possible. However, if the European solution occurs, then we may see cooler temperatures as well as a chance for precipitation. At this range, will continue to keep an eye on the forecast trends, as high uncertainty remains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Patchy fog may develop overnight into Thursday morning. Visibilities may fall off to 3 miles at the KVTN terminal and 5 miles at the KLBF terminal. Ceilings may reach around 2000 FT AGL for a period from 11z to 16z Thursday morning at the KVTN terminal. Winds will be fairly light over the next 24 hours, generally under 10 KTS from the northeast or east.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.