textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Beginning Thursday afternoon, there is a good chance for wetting rainfall across southwestern, western and central Nebraska. This threat will carry over into Thursday night and Friday.

- Temperatures will remain cool for Thursday and Friday thanks to cloud cover and the threat for precipitation.

- Dry and warmer this weekend into next week with highs in the 70s Saturday, then 80s for Sunday through Tuesday. Temps will then cool back into the 70s/lower 80s for Wednesday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

H5 analysis this morning had low pressure over northeastern Quebec. A trough of low pressure extended to the southwest, then west of this low across southern Canada. Another strong shortwave trough was present over central Alberta. South of this feature was a positive tilted trough which extended from northwestern Wyoming, southwest to southern California. East of this trough, broad west-southwest flow extended from the Four Corners, across the Central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Within this mid level flow, increased mid level frontogenesis had developed from central Colorado into southern Nebraska overnight leading to the development of showers. These showers have slowly migrated north during the day today and as of mid afternoon were present generally along a line from Imperial and Arthur, east to North Platte and Broken Bow. Another area of showers was present over north central Nebraska in Cherry and Sheridan Counties. Mid level flow was weaker across the southeastern CONUS and high pressure was located north of the Bahamas. Skies were mainly cloudy across the forecast area this afternoon and 2 PM CDT temperatures ranged from 48 degrees at Grant to 63 degrees at Valentine and Ainsworth.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Mid level frontogenesis will weaken early this evening from SW into central Nebraska. Later in the evening and early overnight hours, a secondary area of mid level frontogenesis will increase from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. After a brief lull in precipitation chances early evening, went ahead and increased pops across southwestern Nebraska overnight tonight. This forcing will exit the area Thursday morning. Increasing southerly and southeasterly winds Thursday morning, will drive low level moisture northward. This will lead to stratus development across southwestern and western portions of the forecast area. Persistent cloud cover Thursday, will lead to cool temps across the forecast area. Afternoon highs will struggle to get out of the middle 50s in SW Nebraska. With some breaks in the clouds possible over northern portions of the forecast area, highs will reach into the lower 60s with some middle 60s possible along the SD/Nebraska border. A strong shortwave trough of low pressure will drop south across the northern Rockies south into Wyoming on Thursday. East of this feature, broad lift will increase, beginning in the panhandle, then spreading east into western and central Nebraska Thursday night. Ensemble forecasts from the GEFS and EC, along with the deterministic, NAM and GFS this morning develop a broad shield of precipitation from the panhandle east Thursday night. Looking at ensemble probabilities in the GEFS and EC solns indicate a near 100 percent chance of 0.10" QPF or higher across almost all of the forecast area Thursday night. When this threshold is increased to 0.50", there is a 70+% chance of exceedance generally west of highway 183. That being said, categorical pops 80-near 100% are in order across the forecast area Thursday night. Meager instability will reside across the area Thursday night facilitating a mention of thunder across the area. However, any threat for severe storms should reside off to the southwest and south of the forecast area where some limited clearing and surface heating along with steepening lapse rates will increase that threat. Across southwestern and western portions of the forecast area Thursday, cloud cover, low level stratus and cool temps in the middle 50s, should inhibit the overall severe storm threat.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The upper level trough will enter western Nebraska early Friday morning, traversing the forecast area through Friday afternoon. The main threat for precipitation will shift into eastern and northeastern portions of the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours with good subsidence developing across the west Friday afternoon. Highs Friday will struggle to get out of the 50s in the north and east due to expected cloud cover and precipitation. Some lower 60s are possible in the south and southwest forecast area where some limited clearing may commence late Friday afternoon. Ridging will build into the Rockies and high plains beginning Saturday, continuing into early next week. High temperatures will reach into the 70s for Saturday, with 80s for Sunday through Wednesday. Mainly dry conditions are expected through Monday with a more active pattern developing midweek next week. The latest EC and GFS solns begin to develop a broad trough of low pressure across the western CONUS early next week. This feature will persist across the western CONUS most of next week leading to increased southerly winds across the central plains, downstream of this feature. Low level moisture advection will increase mid week across the area and with an upper level trough off to the west, periodic disturbances will lead to an increased threat for storms beginning mid week next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Skies will remain mainly overcast today and tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Light rain showers are expected across southwestern Nebraska this afternoon, impacting the KLBF terminal through late afternoon. Ceilings may reach 2500 FT AGL this afternoon at the KLBF terminal. VFR conditions are expected through early morning Thursday at the KLBF terminal. MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings are possible Thursday morning across SW Nebraska. For the KVTN terminal: Expect broken to overcast ceilings ranging from 5000 to 8000 FT AGL over the next 24 hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.