textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning in effect across the area today into tonight due to record high temperatures, afternoon humidity as low as 5 to 10 percent and gusty southwest winds. A strong cold front tonight will abruptly shift winds to the north.

- Temperatures are expected to shatter daily high records this afternoon, as well as break all time March high temperature records.

- After a cool off on Sunday, temperatures are expected to steadily climb again next week. A late week cold front may usher in cooler but still above average temperature to end the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Today, the upper ridge will begin to break down as a disturbance moves across the Northern Plains. This will drive a cold front south to near the I90 corridor in southern South Dakota by 00Z this evening.

Will see surface low pressure deepen across southwestern South Dakota, with anomalously warm H85 temperatures from 24 to 28C across the area. Forecast highs were nudged up near the 50th percentile, from the low 90s north, to the mid to upper 90s south. These highs are also in close agreement with the warmer MAV guidance. These forecast highs would also break monthly record highs for March.

The 00Z KLBF sounding showed dry adiabatic mixing to just above 650mb. Even deeper mixing will occur today, up to 500mb, with clear skies and persistent southwesterly winds. This will mix very dry air to the surface, with afternoon humidity as low as 5 to 10 percent across much of the area. Went with the NBM 25th percentile to capture the expected lower dewpoints. The combination of record high temperatures and very low humidity will also combine with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and lead to critical fire weather conditions. Gusts up to 30 mph during the afternoon will diminish some in the early evening, followed by a cold front dropping into northern Nebraska by late evening, and advancing quickly south overnight. West winds quickly shift to the north behind the front from 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph possible, are expected for up to a 6 hour period overnight. The sharp west to north wind shift, will prolong fire weather concerns across the area through the evening into the overnight. Therefore the Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 AM CDT Saturday until 4 AM CDT Sunday, allowing for the wind shift and gusty winds behind the front Saturday night.

Lows tonight fall into upper 30s to low 40s. Humidity recovery will improve to 75 to 85 percent north, and 65 to 75 percent south.

Sunday, surface high pressure will remain over the area. Gusty, northerly winds will continue through the morning hours before cold air advection ends by early afternoon. Despite the significant cooldown from Saturday, high temperatures Sunday will still be from 5 to 10 degrees above normal, ranging for near 55 northeast to 65 far southwest.

Sunday night, surface winds will become southeast with increasing cloudiness. Lows will range from the upper 30s west to low 30s east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Upper level ridging builds back across the region on Monday, which will return us to a warming trend through the middle of the week. High temperatures steadily climb from the 60s and lower 70s on Monday to the 80s, at the very least, by Wednesday. In fact, Wednesday appears to have a very similar set up to today, with strong upper level ridging and anomalously warm 850 mb temperatures. Continuing to notice that the NBM deterministic is remaining around the 25th percentile in temperature spreads, which is simply too low with the expected conditions, considering the 75th percentile is in the mid 90s. Will maintain mid to upper 80s for now, but expect that highs on Wednesday will continue to trend warmer, potentially into the 90s as we get closer to Wednesday. With the return of warmer temperatures early week, expect a return of fire weather conditions through at least mid week. Monday through Wednesday each show potential for relative humidity values in the 15 to 25 percent range across the region. Concerns appear greatest on Monday and Wednesday, when warmest temperatures and lower relative humidity have overlap with gustier winds. Will continue to keep a close eye on forecast trends in the early to mid week range to determine if additional fire weather headlines will be needed.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, expecting that the upper level ridge begins to breakdown, returning to a more zonal flow, for at least a brief period. As this occurs, expecting a cold front to track through the region, bringing somewhat cooler yet still above average temperatures for Thursday afternoon. Also expecting the front to bring gusty northerly winds across the region. However, expecting this will again be a dry frontal passage, with little to no precipitation expected. Though ensemble forecasts do show a roughly 10 to 20 percent chance of exceeding one hundredth of an inch of precipitation, the chances for more than one tenth of an inch remain zero across the region. Mostly expecting that this front will usher in some cooler temperatures to end the week, bringing highs back into the 50s and 60s, which still remains slightly warmer than average for late March.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska through the effective TAF period. Winds remain light and variable overnight, becoming westerly by the morning. Winds begin to become gusty by the afternoon, with stronger gusts up to 30 knots across the Sandhills and Panhandle. By the evening, a cold front tracks into the region, bringing gusty, northerly winds overnight. The front also brings increasing cloud cover, with most cloud cover being at or above 20,000 feet AGL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions today as record highs reach the low 90s to upper 90s. It cannot be emphasized enough how warm temperatures will be this afternoon, with highs reaching 40 to 45 degrees above climatological normals. Relative humidity values fall to 5 to 10 percent. Southwest winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph possible. A cold front will move into northern Nebraska by late evening (03Z), and advance quickly south overnight. Behind the front, winds will shift to the north at 20 to 30 mph and could gust to 40 mph for a few hours. A prolonged period of extreme fire behavior would be possible with any fires Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect from 10 AM CDT Saturday until 4 AM CDT Sunday.

Cooler highs from 55 to 65 on Sunday with afternoon humidity much higher at around 30 percent. Gusty northerly winds up to 30 mph in the morning will diminish in the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)

Today 03/21 Wednesday 03/25

North Platte 96/86 (1910) 85/84 (1907) Valentine 93/84 (1910) 79/85 (1993) Broken Bow 96/83 (1997) 81/83 (2004,1956,1908) Imperial 96/87 (1907) 86/85 (1907)

Forecast highs this afternoon at North Platte, Imperial, Broken Bow and Valentine are expected to break all-time March records, which are 91, 89, 92 and 87 degrees respectively.

For perspective, North Platte has never hit 100 degrees in March, April or May. In fact the earliest North Platte has hit 100 degrees is June 6th. Broken Bow and Imperial have hit 100 degrees as early as May and Valentine has hit 100 degrees in May and the earliest occurrence of 100 degrees was April 30th 1992.

Also, as mentioned in the long term discussion, forecast highs on Wednesday remain on the lower end of guidance, so there is potential that current forecast highs will continue to increase over the coming days.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.