textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, both this afternoon/evening and again early Friday morning for portions of central Nebraska with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain the main concerns.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday for portions of central Nebraska, though how morning activity affects later development casts some uncertainty.

- After a brief period of above normal temperatures tomorrow through the weekend, persistent active weather appears probable next week and should lead to daily rain/thunderstorm chances and more seasonable temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Early this afternoon, skies remained largely clear across the region. Winds were largely out of the southwest around 10 to 15 mph as temperatures climbed into the upper 70s to middle 80s. A subtle wind shift continues to settle south through South Dakota towards the Nebraska state line. This is largely occurring with little change to sensible weather. That should change later this afternoon/evening with details pertaining to this below.

This afternoon/this evening...modest high pressure drifts across southern Canada and is propelling a wind shift line south through South Dakota with gradual encroachment into western Nebraska through the daytime. General south-southwesterly flow ahead of this is helping sustain rich low-level moisture as dew points climb into the 60s. Aloft, broad upper ridging remains anchored over the Great Basin and helping introduce a stout EML across the High Plains. As afternoon temperatures reach the 80s, moderate to strong destabilization will set up with various short-term solutions depicting 1500-2500 j/kg of MLCAPE along a narrow corridor ahead of the approaching wind shift line. Southerly surface flow beneath moderate mid-level flow around 25 to 35 knots will promote an adequately sheared environment with 0-6km BWD values of 30+ knots. This will be more than enough to support storm organization within ample instability/steep lapse rates aloft and lead to the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk designation (level 2 of 5) which closely aligns with the narrow corridor of greater instability previously mentioned and have no qualms with this. While many ingredients are in place to support a potential severe event, one uncertainty remains and that focuses on storm coverage. Mesoanalysis data suggests capping will likely linger through the day and with weak forcing in place, may stymie development as a result. Current 18z RAOB data from KLBF suggests capping closely aligns with the mesoanalysis data and short-term CAM guidance fails to fully erode this. This may lead to only isolated convection, perhaps widely scattered at best, and limit the scope of the event as a result. Still though, shear profiles showing long, straight hodographs suggest splitting supercells with very large hail up to 2" possible and damaging wind gusts around 70 mph the main concerns. Moderate low-level helicity, namely in the 0-1km layer, could support a tornado threat as well but confidence in this is low. Expect convection to develop by late afternoon with a southeast motion. Activity may struggle to sustain itself into the evening with the loss of daytime heating and drier air becoming entrained into the mid-levels leading to a fairly rapid decrease in available instability.

Friday/Friday Night...Confidence is beginning to increase in at least an isolated thunderstorm threat early Friday morning across portions of central Nebraska. Should storms develop, strong to severe hazards will be in play. A southwesterly developing low-level jet tonight will arc anti-cyclonically with due westerly winds pointed into north central Nebraska. While convergence/confluence will be largely lacking, warm air advection will be reasonably strong. Instability aloft will be strong, rooted around h7 with around 1500-2000 j/kg CAPE as h7-h5 lapse rates near 6.5-7.5 C/km. Within this layer of elevated instability, long/straight hodographs with 25+ knots of BWD support additional strong to severe thunderstorms. With forcing tied to winds aloft, parcels should be largely uninhibited. What does cause some uncertainty is being on the east periphery of the more impressive EML and whether the weaker lapse rates play a role in storm strength. Either way, believe some severe mention is worthy at this point with only isolated coverage appearing likely. Through the day Friday, how the atmosphere recovers from any morning activity will play a large role in the severe potential later in the day. Residual clouds and any lingering outflow may hinder afternoon temperatures slightly and this may result in more stable conditions across our east. Precise details may be murky at best until we see coverage of any early morning development. Regardless, with the influence of a strong EML aloft above warm and humid conditions, severe thunderstorms will again be possible. The SPC highlights much of the region with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Friday. Increased influence of a mid-level speed max will promote a stronger sheared environment across the area with strong instability in place to the tune of 2500-3500 j/kg MLCAPE. Large hail and damaging winds, potentially significantly severe (2"+ or 75+ mph respectively) will be possible with any thunderstorms that form. High storm bases with highs reaching the 90s should limit any tornado threat though should any outflow boundary settle in the area, this concern could increase in vicinity of this feature. HREF highlights increased QPF probabilities during the typical late summer window, late afternoon through the evening, and see no reason to stray from that thus PoPs align with this idea. While widespread wetting rains are not anticipated, the NBM does highlight portions of the local area around a 40% chance of seeing 0.25" or greater rainfall. This is likely to remain spotty though. Thunderstorms may be slow to depart the area, but should do so prior to dawn on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Upper level ridging will amplify by early weekend with the ridge axis approaching from the west. Broad upper troughing will remain stalled out across the Hudson Bay with a second disturbance lifting into the Pacific Northwest. This should result in ridge breakdown as a lead shortwave ejects out of Wyoming. The result of this will be increased rain and thunderstorms again, favoring late Saturday into Sunday. Flow will generally flatten out as this Pacific Northwest disturbance begins to translate across southern Canada by early next week. A trailing frontal boundary with reinforcing high pressure should traverse the area towards the middle of the week. This will sustain daily rain and thunderstorm chances while keeping temperatures more on the seasonable side (average highs for late August are low to middle 80s). Should this pattern hold, recurring rain chances will bring about potential for at least locally beneficial rainfall to some drought stricken areas. Details remain far from certain so continue to check back with later forecasts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Expecting VFR conditions to prevail across most of western and north central Nebraska tonight and tomorrow. The main exception to this will be the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening and tomorrow afternoon. These will bring the risk for gusty and erratic winds, as well as the potential for brief, localized reductions in ceilings and visibility. However, coverage is expected to be fairly scattered, with low confidence in direct impacts to area terminals. Otherwise, expecting light and mostly variable winds overnight into the morning hours, before taking on a more southeasterly direction. While cloud cover may build in overnight into the morning, expecting this to mostly remain mid level, with little to no impacts to ceilings.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.