textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- After near record temperatures Thursday, A back door cold front will bring cooler readings to western and north central Nebraska Friday.

- High temperatures Saturday through Monday will run 15 to 25 degrees above normal with near record highs possible Monday.

- Sharp cooldown will commence Tuesday with an increased threat for precipitation across the area through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The shortwave over northern Manitoba (mentioned above) will track southeast tonight, deepening as it approaches northern Ontario by 12z Friday. This will force an arctic cold front into the eastern Dakotas overnight. By 12z Friday, this feature will nose into northeastern portions of the forecast area. In advance of the front tonight, lows will be mild as winds are not expected to totally decouple. Forecast lows will range from the upper 20s in the west to lower 30s in the east. As the arctic air noses into northern and northeastern Nebraska, low clouds will work into the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area. The front will work to the southwest Friday morning before stalling across the western Sandhills into southwestern Nebraska midday. Temperatures will vary widely across the forecast area on Friday with highs around 42 in the northeast to the lower 60s in SW Nebraska. Currently am concerned about the persistence of low cloudiness over northeastern portions of the forecast area Friday and their impact on high temperatures. The deterministic model solns, do hold onto low cloudiness over far northeastern portions of the forecast area Friday and the current forecast high of 42 for O'Neill may be "optimistic" with 30s being more realistic. With this forecast package, highs were trended downward in the northeastern forecast area and brought closer to statistical MET and MAV guidance. That being said, if this guidance continues on its latest trend in temps, highs will need to be lowered further with the next forecast package. The stalled out cold front will remain anchored over central portions of the forecast area Friday night with colder temperatures expected over the eastern forecast area. Lows will range from around 20 in the east to the upper 20s to around 30 in SW Nebraska and the eastern Panhandle.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 257 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

As the ridge continues to move eastward, warm temperatures will return for western and central Nebraska with 850mb temps reaching the low to mid teens C. The current forecast has highs trending to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal temps, generally being in the low to mid 60s. Aided by a ridge breakdown, Monday has the potential to come close to even reaching near record highs, being in the upper 60s to low 70s across the the region. These high temps as well as low RH percentages being in the upper teens to low 20s will bring elevated to near critical fire danger during this timeframe as well. Saturday could be of particular concern for western Nebraska with conditions as stated above combined with northwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph. A cold front will move in Monday evening bringing a change in regime to cooler, near normal temps heading into next week. Precipitation chances still remain plausible for Tuesday night through Thursday but confidence remains low at this time for anything measureable.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through the rest of tonight. A cold front will back into the area from the northeast Friday morning. This will bring an area of MVFR ceilings. This area is expected to be located along and east of a BBW to VTN line. Ceilings should gradually lift during the afternoon hours. Otherwise low-level wind shear will occur across the Sandhills and southern Nebraska until around sunrise.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.