textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers persist through sunrise this morning, with only light (<0.10") accumulations expected across portions of the Sandhills and central Nebraska.

- Increasing moisture on Friday may lead to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, primarily east of Highway 83.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Saturday night across the area.

- Low amplitude west northwesterly flow will persist into the middle of next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- Temperatures Sunday through Wednesday will be below normal with daily highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Currently, scattered light rain showers persist across portions of the northwest Sandhills and are expected to slowly spread southeast through sunrise. This is being driven by modest mid-level FGEN, within a zone of weak cold advection in association with a passing H7 trough axis. Meager mid-level moisture atop lingering low-level dry air will limit any precipitation amounts this morning to generally 0.10" or less across the Sandhills and central Nebraska.

Surface high pressure then migrates east along the Kansas/Nebraska state line today, leading to benign and much less windy conditions this afternoon. Despite humidity falling into the upper teens to 20s again today, the lack of wind is expected to keep fire concerns low across the area. Highs this afternoon climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, with temperatures aloft slightly cooler than Wednesday afternoon.

By Friday, surface low pressure will begin to deepen across northeast Colorado, bringing a return of southerly flow. A modest southerly LLJ develops Friday morning as well, and could lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development for areas east of HWY 83. This also brings a return of richer surface dewpoints across southwest and central Nebraska, into the middle 50s to low 60s. By late afternoon, a weak surface cold front will move into the Sandhills, bisecting the area from southwest to northeast by late evening. Guidance largely keeps the area dry Friday evening along this boundary, though a look at forecast soundings from even dry guidance solutions shows inhibition largely eroded. Confidence in thunderstorm development remains low for now, though will need to be monitored closely. Southeasterly low level flow beneath strengthening northwest flow aloft promotes straight and increasingly long hodographs across southwest Nebraska Friday evening, and look to be supportive of large hail. Weak surface convergence and modest height rises aloft look to be just enough to deter initiation, though this is not unanimously supported. Trends will continue to be monitored closely for a threat for strong storms Friday evening.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Low level moisture advection will be ongoing Saturday, thanks to deepening low pressure off to the west and increasing southerly winds. By afternoon, a decent mid level disturbance will cross the central Rockies emerging onto the high plains of Colorado and Wyoming. As this disturbance tracks east, showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon hours. As they transition east into the evening hours, they will encounter decent low level moisture with spatial coverage increasing. PWATS in advance of the convection Saturday afternoon reach, 1.25 inches east of the panhandle with 1.5+ inches noted from southwestern into south central and central Nebraska. These amounts are well above the 90th%ile for this time of year so heavy rain appears to be a threat Saturday night. As for the severe threat Saturday night, the latest GFS and NAM solns develop a warm front across the forecast area Saturday. Both solutions develop convection at the interface of this feature and a dryline late Saturday afternoon. Currently, the NAM soln has this front over northern Nebraska with the GFS having this feature along the I-80 corridor. INVOF the front, good low level turning of winds, may lead to a tornado threat. Elsewhere, deep layer shear on the order of 40-50KTS would favor supercell thunderstorms with large hail being the initial threat, then winds and heavy rain later on as storms congeal into a complex Saturday evening. As was the case yesterday, will message all modes of severe weather and include a mention of heavy rain, give the degree of forecast PWATS Saturday. Persistent west- northwesterly flow aloft will continue through the middle of next week with warmer air just off to the southwest of the forecast area. Daily highs Sunday through Wednesday will generally be in the 70s to lower 80s which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. With low level moisture remaining abundant through the middle of next week, the threat for precipitation will continue as convection fires off to the west of the forecast area with west- northwest flow carrying this activity into the forecast area during the evening hours. The latest GEFS and EC ensembles continue to indicate a broad, continued threat for precipitation through midweek, although timing and location of precipitation will have to be ironed out in subsequent forecast packages.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A band of mid level cloudiness will drift across western and north central Nebraska overnight into Thursday morning. Expect broken ceilings around 10000 FT AGL with this area of cloudiness. Skies will then scatter out mid to late morning across the area with scattered cloud cover around 10000 FT AGL transitioning to 25000 FT AGL late afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.