textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated chance of a shower/thunderstorm this evening

- A brief period of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible Monday

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday

- Light, scattered precipitation is expected Wednesday, mainly across southwest Nebraska. A brief rain/snow mix is possible early Wednesday, especially across western Nebraska.

- Warmer and drier conditions return Thursday into the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for an isolated shower/thunderstorm the remainder of this afternoon and evening, elevated to critical fire wx concerns, strong winds and chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday.

For the remainder of this afternoon and evening a SW trof will push through the area out of eastern WY/western SD into the Sandhills. Weak lift has already generated some shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of WY/SD and expect that to continue as it spreads southeastward. Have low to moderate confidence in convection maintaining into the northern Sandhills. Then as the trof spreads southeast confidence becomes lower in convection as it will be mostly diurnally driven, thus the further south it tracks the less likely shower/thunderstorm development will become.

There will be elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns for tomorrow, however the period of concern will be brief and generally for portions of fire wx zones 210 and 219. The lowest RH values (around 20%) will be in the early afternoon hours. Winds will start to increase behind the front in the afternoon, however the strongest period of winds will be in the late afternoon. By late afternoon will start to see low level moisture increase in with precipitation chances increasings as well. Given the increase in RH values by late afternoon when winds will be strongest decided not to go with a Red Flag Warning for fire wx zones 210 and 219 at this time.

As for precipitation chances on Monday night, did lower PoPs a little as thinking precipitation activity will mostly be scattered precip, rather than a stratiform type rain. Any rain that falls will be light in nature, generally expect a 50 percent or less probability of seeing any qpf values greater than 0.5 in the evening into the overnight hours. As we head into Tuesday morning precipitation chances will increase and should also see an increase in low level moisture leading to greater qpf values with a 50 percent chance or greater to see around a 0.10" or more across portions of western and southwest Nebraska for the morning period. Over the day Tuesday, western and southwest Nebraska have the greatest potential to see qpf total values greater than a quarter inch, potential even up to 0.5 inches or more, closer to the NE/CO border.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Scattered shower chances will continue Wednesday morning through early afternoon, mainly across southwest Nebraska where lift will be the greatest. Precipitation amounts are expected to remain light, with the NBM 50th percentile values around 0.10 to 0.20 inches and the 75th percentile up to 0.40 inches across the far southwest. Probabilities of exceeding 0.25 inches range from 40 to 60 percent south of the I-80 corridor. Uncertainty remains regarding the exact placement of heavier precipitation, with GEFS guidance favoring a more southern track while the EPS keeps higher amounts across the southern portion of the area. At this time, the GEFS solution is favored given the strength of forecast mid-level cold air advection. Confidence is increasing in amounts generally between a tenth and a quarter inch, especially across Perkins, Chase, and Hayes counties. Highs Wednesday will be below normal, generally in the low to mid 50s. If precipitation lingers longer across southern areas, temperatures may struggle to rise out of the mid to upper 40s. Lows Wednesday morning will be near freezing, and a rain/snow mix cannot be ruled out, mainly across western Nebraska.

Thursday into Friday, upper-level ridging will begin to build back into the region, supporting a return to drier and warmer conditions. Highs will rise into the low to mid 70s. Isolated precipitation chances may develop Thursday night across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills. Fire weather concerns may increase as minimum relative humidity values fall into the 20 to 25 percent range and northwest winds strengthen, particularly across western Nebraska. The extent of this threat will depend on the wetting rainfall forecasted for the beginning of this week, though drying fuels suggest at least some potential for elevated fire weather conditions.

Friday night through the weekend, temperatures will remain seasonable, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. A shortwave is expected to develop Friday and move southeast through the weekend along the eastern periphery of the western ridge, supporting increased precipitation chances. Showers and isolated thunderstorms look possible at this time, though limited moisture return and marginal large-scale pattern support should keep the severe threat low. Will continue to monitor this developing system over the next couple of days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR aviation conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. Some increasing winds are expected by the afternoon as a frontal system moves into the region. Northeast gusts up to 25 knots are expected. Increasing clouds are also anticipated as the front approaches, however, ceilings will remain above 5000 feet. Some precipitation will also accompany this front, but should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.