textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a minor threat for showers and thunderstorms mainly this evening over far southwestern into portions of central Nebraska. There is a marginal (Level 1 of 5) threat for severe storms south of a line from Maywood, to Ansley to Bartlett. Gusty winds are the main severe threat.

- There will be periodic chances for precipitation over the next 7 days. ATTM the best chances are Thursday night into Friday.

- Temperatures will be seasonal this week with daily highs in the 70s. Some 80s are possible on Friday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Looking at the H5 pattern this morning, a low amplitude ridge extended from central Iowa, north into northern Minnesota and north along the Manitoba/Ontario border. East of this feature, a broad trough of low pressure extended from eastern Quebec south into New England. West of the ridge, closed low pressure was present over northwestern Manitoba and southern Alberta. A trough extended south of this feature to Salt Lake City UT. Southwest of this trough, a shortwave was noted over northern California. The closed low over northwestern Montana, had tracked quickly east this morning and as of early afternoon, this feature was located between Glasgow and Havre Montana per satellite imagery. At the surface this afternoon...low pressure was located over southern South Dakota. A cold front extended north of this feature to a secondary low over southwestern North Dakota. South of the front a surface trough extended south of the South Dakota low into west central Nebraska. Further south a third boundary extended from west central Kansas into east central Nebraska. Over the last 15 minutes, convective clouds have developed along this boundary.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Low end precipitation chances this evening is the main forecast challenge. The cold front, mentioned above in the synopsis, will track into northern half of Nebraska by 00z. Two areas of convection are expected to initiate this evening. The first will be over northwestern Kansas into south central and east central Nebraska. This well in advance of the cold front and along a pre frontal boundary (mainly moisture boundary). The second will be just ahead of the cold front over northeastern Colorado into far SW Nebraska. The second area will have the best chances of delivering precipitation to southern and southeastern portions of the forecast area this evening. As for the severe threat, the latest SWODY1 has a marginal risk from east of a line from Maywood, to Ansley, to Bartlett. Looking at the HRRR this morning, especially the 15z run, there is a strong wind signal with the second area of convection over far SW Nebraska this evening. With decreased low level moisture north of the first pre-frontal boundary, and gusty west, then northwesterly winds with the front, gusty winds with this area of convection are plausible. Even though this area is not currently outlooked, will advise the oncoming shift to pay particular attention to a corridor from SW Nebraska into the eastern Sandhills for the potential for severe storms (strong winds) this evening. Overnight, the threat for showers will continue in southeastern areas behind the front as mid level frontogenesis trails the surface front. Surface high pressure will nose into northern, then central Nebraska during the day on Tuesday. With the front well south of the FA and high pressure anchored over central Nebraska, dry conditions are expected. Highs will struggle to get out of the lower 70s thanks to light northeasterly and northerly winds. High pressure will then build east of the forecast area Tuesday night. Winds will shift to the south and southeast overnight allowing moisture to surge north into southern, then central Nebraska. The latest NAM12 soln does advect a decent amount of moisture into SW and southern Nebraska overnight. Was concerned initially about fog potential Wednesday morning, however am not seeing much support for this with the latest SREF fog ensemble probabilities. That being said, will forgo fog mention with this forecast package. With the northward surge in moisture the latest NBM forecast does increase precipitation chances overnight, particularly in the central, east and north. With the best deep layer moisture locked in over Kansas, and drier mid level air present over southern Nebraska, it appears drizzle will be the main mode of precipitation Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The frontal boundary, anchored over northern Kansas will lift north as a warm front Wednesday into southern Nebraska. By afternoon, a lead shortwave will initiate convection along the front range of Colorado. Southwesterly winds aloft will lift this activity into the forecast area Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. The front will remain stalled across central and southern Nebraska Thursday with a secondary shortwave leading to convective development over the central Rockies. Once again, southwesterly flow aloft will carry activity into the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Beyond Friday, there will be continued threat for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend as low pressure aloft slowly lifts across the northern Rockies. After highs in the 80s Friday, temperatures will be seasonal this weekend with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Winds will abruptly change to the west then north over the next 6 hours as a cold front pushes through the forecast area. At the KLBF terminal, there is a threat for thunderstorms early this evening. Will handle this with a tempo group as some of the CAMS are indicating a decent wind threat with any thunderstorms this evening. Winds will remain gusty behind the front, especially over southern Nebraska, impacting the KLBF terminal into the overnight hours. Winds will gradually decrease this evening at the KVTN terminal reaching under 10 KTS overnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.