textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across western Nebraska, with a second round of thunderstorms overnight across the region. The main concerns will be large hail and damaging wind gusts.

- Near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each evening this week.

- Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than average this week, with a potential return to more seasonal highs this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

An upper level shortwave tracks across north central Montana this afternoon, pushing a surface cold front across the northern Plains to the southeast. Ahead of the cold front, skies have been continuing to clear this afternoon across western Nebraska, helping build instability across the Panhandle into the western Sandhills. CAM guidance suggests around 1,000-2,000 J/kg of CAPE should be available this afternoon. However, the 18z LBF sounding shows already shows 1,900 J/kg of surface based CAPE, suggesting CAMs may be a bit slow on building CAPE across the Panhandle, and therefore be on the low side for amounts. In addition to the building instability, fairly robust deep layer shear is available for convection, with around 40 to 50 knots of deep layer shear across the region. This will support organized convection this afternoon and evening, with supercells being the primary convective mode. Given the environment, large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat throughout the afternoon and evening, with greatest severe potential in the Panhandle into the western Sandhills. Late this evening, as the environment becomes less supportive of supercells, expect storms to weaken, but rumbles of thunder are likely to remain across portions of the region.

Overnight, as the cold front tracks further south, expect a second round of thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front, tracking across the region. Strong shear remains across the region, which may help keep a more organized storm mode. Latest guidance suggest a more multicellular mode, but there is some arguments to be made for a more linear convective mode, as well. For the overnight convection, believe damaging wind gusts will be the main severe threat, but cannot rule out the potential for large hail as well, especially in more intense cells.

As the cold front passes Tuesday morning, expect cooler temperatures to remain in its wake, with highs again in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms may linger along the frontal boundary, mainly expected to be along and east of Highway 83. However, the morning convection combined with the frontal passage will greatly limit severe potential during the afternoon hours for areas along and east of Highway 83. While the environment looks less impressive east of Highway 83, a few stronger storms may be possible Tuesday evening across western and southwest Nebraska, again with damaging wind gusts and hail being the main concerns.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

The upper level pattern remains fairly active through the end of the week, with several shortwaves expected to track across the region. This should provide a catalyst for several weaker disturbances, bringing a near daily chance for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Though there is a daily risk for showers and thunderstorms, the severe risk becomes more uncertain Wednesday into late week. While we currently are outlooked for a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Wednesday, there is some uncertainty remaining in where storms develop, largely driving what severe risks will be possible. Much the same remains Thursday and Friday, with an environment capable of producing convection, though question remains in exactly where storms develop as well as where the stronger storm environments develop. Will continue to monitor and refine the forecasts in the coming days, as confidence increases in the finer scale environment.

Cloud cover from showers and thunderstorms will continue to limit daytime heating this week. In fact, highs are forecast to remain in the 70s through Friday, which remains on the cooler side compared to climatology. For reference, we typically see highs around 86 to 87 mid to late June, meaning our forecast highs are around 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average. By the weekend, cloud cover is expected to become less prevalent as height rises track into the region. This is expected to usher in a return of more seasonal highs, with highs on Saturday and Sunday expected to return to the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This afternoon, MVFR to VFR conditions are expected across most of the region. Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across western Nebraska, with additional thunderstorms overnight across north central Nebraska. With expected showers and rain, variable flight conditions will be expected overnight, ranging from low end VFR to IFR conditions. Winds are expected to remain mostly light out of the south and southeast, becoming more variable around areas of precipitation. With thunderstorms in the forecast, expecting lower ceilings overnight, as well as the possibility for patchy fog in the wake of thunderstorm activity.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.