textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated chance of strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening

- Precipitation chances will continue Thursday through Tuesday, mainly during the evening and overnight hours, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday.

- Above-normal highs are expected Friday through the weekend, with highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances both this evening and Wednesday afternoon into the evening. For today, the cold front has stalled across the southern Sandhills this afternoon and transitioned into a stationary front, extending east into north central Nebraska and west back into the Panhandle. Areas near and south of the front will have the greatest potential for convection. Convection will likely initiate across the higher terrain this afternoon then move southeastward, however anywhere along the frontal boundary still has the potential for thunderstorm initiation. 0 to 6 km shear will be around 35 to 40 kts in the late afternoon and evening, however shear will begin to decrease by late evening. MU CAPE south of the front will be around 2000 to 3000 J/kg in the evening. Storms are expected to be isolated in nature and do not expect widespread coverage in thunderstorms development. The greatest threat will generally be along and west of HWY 83 and along and south of interstate 80 for any organized convection. The greatest threat will be strong damaging winds and large hail. There will be a secondary threat of heavy rainfall with PWAT values around 1.40 to 1.60 possible this evening. Since coverage won't be widespread, do believe heavy rain potential will be largely localized. As for timing of convection, think the greatest concern for convection will be after 6pm CT/5pm MT, expecting most convection to exit the forecast area by midnight.

As for Wednesday, temperatures behind the front will remain near normal for highs this time of year. Although the area is post- frontal a weak sw trof will move into the area Wednesday afternoon into the evening. There will be a chance for a few isolated showers and maybe an embedded thunderstorms, however not expecting any organized convection or severe hazards for Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Thursday, a mid-level trough axis will move into the Hudson Bay region while a strong 597-dam 500-mb ridge remains anchored across the southwestern United States. The position of the ridge will maintain stronger northwest flow aloft across the region. A weak disturbance is forecast to move along the northern periphery of the ridge, providing sufficient lift for shower and thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon into the evening, especially across western Nebraska. In terms of severe weather, ample instability combined with stronger deep-layer shear should support organized severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and damaging winds. This threat is currently highlighted by the SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk, and trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. Temperatures Thursday will remain in the 80s area-wide, with gusty southerly winds expected across much of the region.

Friday, the upper-level ridge across the southwestern United States will begin shifting eastward, resulting in increasing warm air advection through the day. Forecast 850-mb temperatures are expected to return to the 25 to 30C range, supporting highs from the middle 80s across eastern portions of the area to the lower 90s across the western zones. The stronger upper-level flow and better forcing are expected to shift north of the region into the Dakotas, where the greatest coverage of thunderstorms is currently favored. However, some of this convection may propagate southward into north-central Nebraska Friday night, providing another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. Some severe weather potential may accompany this activity across north-central Nebraska, though confidence in the coverage and magnitude of the threat remains low at this time.

Saturday through early next week, the upper-level ridge is forecast to flatten, allowing stronger west to southwest flow aloft to become established across the region. Saturday currently appears to be the warmest day of the period, with highs reaching the lower to middle 90s across much of the area. As the ridge flattens and stronger flow aloft returns, temperatures should moderate back into the 80s through early next week. With stronger flow aloft overlapping ample instability, the overall pattern will remain supportive of periodic severe weather chances through at least early next week. Saturday currently appears to have the greatest severe weather potential, particularly across western and central Nebraska. In terms of precipitation, widespread meaningful rainfall is not expected through the extended period. However, precipitable water values will remain elevated, supporting efficient rainfall processes and locally heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that develop. Therefore, rainfall amounts will likely remain highly variable, with locally higher amounts possible where thunderstorms occur.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast.

The main concern will revolve around ongoing convection to the west of the terminals. Current tracks combined with latest short term guidance suggest activity should remain west of KLBF. As much, will keep any prevailing mention of degraded conditions out. Beyond late tonight, ceilings should gradually improve by daybreak on Wednesday with CIGs expected to remain above 10kft AGL.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.