textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cold night in store for western and north central Nebraska, with subfreezing lows across the region.

- Near critical to critical fire weather concerns return on Monday, with climbing temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty winds.

- Warm temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s across much of the area.

- Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday afternoon into the evening, with isolated strong to severe storms possible. Confidence remains low in storm coverage and evolution.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Another cold night is in store for western and north central Nebraska, as temperatures drop below freezing across the region. While skies remain clear, aiding in radiational cooling, a slight west to southwest wind is expected to persist overnight. This slight wind should limit overnight lows from dropping off completely, keeping overnight lows around the mid to upper 20s. For now, expecting that temperatures only drop into the upper 20s for a few hours right before sunrise. Given the marginal set up tonight for subfreezing temperatures, and the relatively shorter duration, have decided to not issue additional freeze products for the overnight period. However, even without a freeze product in place, caution should be taken with sensitive plants and vegetation, as well as with outdoor plumbing features, such as sprinkler and irrigation systems. As for frost potential overnight, humidity recovery remains poor across southwest Nebraska, so not expecting much in the way for frost development. However, further north, especially along the Niobrara River, humidity recovery overnight combined with cold temperatures may allow for a widespread frost development in the early morning hours.

Speaking of poor overnight humidity recovery, will once again see very low relative humidity values across western and north central Nebraska tomorrow. Across southwestern and western Nebraska, humidity values Sunday afternoon drop to around 10 percent, with values across north central Nebraska around 20 to 25 percent. However, winds tomorrow afternoon remain mostly light across the region, with peak gusts remaining under 20 mph. These lighter winds should help limit fire weather concerns tomorrow afternoon, despite the low humidity and warming temperatures.

By Monday, upper level ridging becomes more pronounced across the region. This will also be accompanied by a push of warm air advection, supporting temperatures around 20 to 25 degrees above average. A push of very dry air is expected across the region, dropping relative humidity values under 20 percent across all of western and north central Nebraska. More concerning, is the potential for afternoon relative humidity values to drop below 10 percent in portions of western and southwestern Nebraska. Gusty winds out of the southwest, becoming northwesterly by evening, are expected, with peak gusts around 25 to 30 mph. With this set up, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday afternoon across the entire region. Will continue to monitor the wind forecast over the next few cycles to determine whether fire weather headlines will be needed.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Tuesday, an upper level ridge will expand and strengthen across the region. This will lead to highs in the mid to upper 80s, which is 10 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. Relative humidity values will fall into the 10 to 20 percent range, but with winds forecast to remain light across the area, fire weather concerns appear low at this time.

Wednesday, the upper level ridge will begin moving east as a storm system approaches the region from the west. This will promote lee cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Rockies, leading to strong southerly flow across the area. Highs will once again reach the mid to upper 80s. Winds will also be quite strong as the low pressure system deepens to the west. Low level moisture will increase as well, with dew points in the low to mid 50s by the afternoon. This should help limit fire weather concerns, though this will continue to be monitored.

Late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, increasing moisture, lift, and an eastward-moving dryline could promote thunderstorm development. Model guidance currently indicates sufficient instability for isolated strong to severe storms. Storm coverage appears isolated at best, and there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the evolution of this approaching storm system.

Thursday, the main system is forecast to eject north of the region, which will likely keep the better moisture and precipitation chances north and east of the area. Highs on Thursday will likely range from the mid 60s across northwest Nebraska to the upper 70s farther southeast. The area could potentially end up within the dry slot of this system, so fire weather concerns could increase once again as winds will strengthen and RH values fall into the 15 to 25 percent range, particularly across southwest Nebraska. A northern stream trough moving across Canada likely remains north of the area Friday into Saturday, potentially bringing cooler temperatures. Currently, no widespread precipitation is expected through the long term forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 608 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Gusty northwest winds continue but will begin to weaken over the next few hours. This trend will continue tonight, with winds becoming light and variable across the area. Fair weather cumulus clouds will continue through the evening for western and north-central Nebraska, though no ceiling impacts are expected. Skies should gradually clear tonight into Sunday, with light abd variable winds of 5 to 10 knots across the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Low humidity values and gusty winds persist this afternoon and evening, leading to potential critical fire weather concerns across all of western and north central Nebraska. However, more expansive cloud cover this afternoon and localized drizzle and flurries may keep humidity values just above critical thresholds through the afternoon. However, being so close to criteria, will maintain the Red Flag Warning through the afternoon into the evening.

Poor humidity recovery is expected across most of the region tonight, especially across southwest Nebraska. Temperatures gradually warm tomorrow afternoon, pushing to seasonal to above seasonal temperatures, with warmest temperatures across southwest Nebraska. This will lead to another day of very low humidity across the region, however, lighter winds tomorrow should limit fire weather concerns. By Monday, near critical to critical conditions are expected across the region, with additional fire weather concerns remaining through mid week.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.