textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected early Saturday morning across portions of northern into central Nebraska. A few of these storms could be severe, with a threat for damaging winds and large hail.

- Much warmer temperatures return to areas along and west of Highway 83 on Saturday, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100.

- Near daily chances for at least some rainfall/scattered thunderstorm chances Sunday into next week.

- High temperatures start out very warm the first of next week, but then cool some toward the middle and latter parts of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A surface cool front, currently moving through western South Dakota, is expected to continue to move south into the area through sunrise this morning. By late morning, this front is expected to stall near or just south of the I-80 corridor, ushering in much drier air into the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. This front will also bring gusty northwest winds in its wake, with gusts of 25 to 30 miles per hour expected this afternoon across the Sandhills. Along and south of the stalled frontal boundary, richer dewpoints in the middle to upper 60s are expected to pool in persistent easterly flow. This will lead to a narrow corridor of favorable instability and deep layer shear, though no convection is anticipated during the daylight hours today. This is due to a couple of factors, with the first being warm air aloft leading to strong CIN, which does not look to erode much late afternoon. The second is continued subtle height rises aloft, as upper ridging continues to establish across the Four Corners through the day. This should be more than enough to keep southwest Nebraska dry through sunset.

After sunset this is expected to quickly change, as a strengthening LLJ overspreads much of western and eventually central/north central Nebraska. Guidance continues to come into better agreement with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development early Saturday morning, primarily near the South Dakota/Nebraska border initially. Ample MUCAPE of ~2000-2500J/kg will be in place across the area, along with adequate flow aloft for effective shear ~50-60kts. Straight hodographs within the LFC-EL layer suggests some large hail threat with updrafts as they initiate and can remain at least semi- discrete, with guidance then suggesting some damaging wind threat after storms grow upscale. Corfidi vectors ~305-310deg suggest an eventual propagation from northwest to southeast, from northern into central Nebraska through the pre-dawn to late morning hours Saturday. The greatest severe threat may reside off to the south and east of the local area, where eventual daytime heating will allow for greater potential for storms to become surface based. Still, some threat for large hail and damaging winds looks to exist early Saturday morning prior to the line of storms exiting off to the southeast. Dry conditions are then expected to prevail through the remainder of the day Saturday in the wake of the departing MCS. Much warmer temperatures are also expected by Saturday afternoon, though any lingering cloud debris lends some uncertainty across central Nebraska. Further west, temperatures look to soar into the upper 90s to near 100F, as H7-H85 temps approach the 90th percentile climo. That said, lesser humidity is expected to keep heat index values in the middle to upper 90s Saturday afternoon, and preclude any heat advisory concerns for now.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the Four Corners region the through the first of next week. This will allow for some monsoonal-subtropical moisture to rotate north and then eastward across our area around the ridge periphery. This will bring near daily chances for at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Ensemble guidance maintains the stronger winds aloft farther north across South Dakota the first of the week, with those shifting southward some by the middle and latter part of next week. Mean PWAT values remain on the high side through much of the week, generally in the 1.2 to 1.4" range. With the stronger winds aloft remaining to our north, severe storm activity seems low. However, locally heavy rainfall could be a concern due to the abundance of moisture and slow moving nature of the storms.

Temperatures will be quite warm Sunday and Monday, with highs nearing the century mark, especially Sunday across southwest Nebraska. As the ridge flattens some, and translates from the Four Corners to the souther plains by the middle and latter parts of the week, temperatures will likely cool as a cold front sags southward through the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the most part but areas of low ceilings and MVFR and local IFR will be possible especially across portions of central Nebraska early this morning. Otherwise, northeast winds will increase to between 10-15 kts this afternoon as a weak cold front slides southward across the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.