textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across western Nebraska. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms expected to arrive Monday evening, lasting overnight.

- A few hours of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible Monday afternoon, prior to expected showers and thunderstorms. Concerns are largely driven by the gusty winds, though warmer temperatures and lower humidity also contribute.

- Moderate confidence in showers and isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday, although the severe potential remains uncertain at this time.

- Moderate confidence dry and warm conditions for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A cold front is tracking across western Nebraska overnight and is expected to be into Kansas by daybreak. Along the front range of the Rockies, a stationary frontal boundary is expected to lag behind the cold front. Throughout the morning, slight instability builds aloft across northern Nebraska into South Dakota, with the stationary front being a lifting mechanism for elevated showers and thunderstorms. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to track south across portions of western and northern Nebraska. However, low levels in the environment remain relatively dry, which should limit precipitation potential. In fact, precipitation this afternoon and evening is expected to remain generally under one tenth of an inch, with a few spots across northern Nebraska receiving a few hundredths at best. As such, will need to keep an eye on lightning, especially in places where recent precipitation amounts were lower, as lightning may still pose a threat for fire starts.

Attention turns to Monday, which has potential to be a busy weather day across western Nebraska. Another cold front is expected to track south across the Dakotas, with stronger winds expected to be along and behind this front. Sustained northerly winds of 20 to 25 mph are expected with the front, with gusts up to 35 mph Monday afternoon. To the south of the front, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s north of the front. The cooler temperatures are expected to keep afternoon humidity values generally around 25 to 35 percent, with values in the 20 to 25 percent range associated with the warmer temperatures to the south. At this time, little overlap is expected between the lowest humidity values and gustiest winds. However, the stronger winds are expected to precede any precipitation and will be occurring while temperatures rise and humidity falls. This does keep a brief window in the afternoon where elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible, largely driven by the gusty winds, and aided by warmer temperatures and lowering humidity. Concern is likely to be highest across the Panhandle and western Sandhills into southwest Nebraska.

As mentioned above, the fire weather concerns are expected to precede precipitation chances. As the cold front tracks into the region, expect precipitation chances to steadily increase from the mid afternoon to overnight hours. With the front's initial surge, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across portions of western Nebraska during the afternoon hours. However, there is still some uncertainty in the initial timing of these storms, which complicates the duration of fire weather concerns. Do believe that dry lightning concerns will be lower on Monday, as storms are expected to bring higher precipitation totals, but again, timing remains more uncertain. By the evening into the overnight hours, expecting that the front eventually slows across the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska, increasing precipitation potential. Confidence in precipitation across southwest Nebraska continues to increase, as ensembles continue to highlight a 90 to 100 percent chance of measureable precipitation along and south of Interstate 80. In fact, confidence is beginning to increase in seeing amounts over one tenth of an inch, especially in the European ensemble solutions. Rain showers are expected to continue on and off through the night across most of western and north central Nebraska into the Tuesday morning commute.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Scattered rain showers and embedded thunderstorm potential will continue Tuesday through Wednesday as the frontal boundary stalls out across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Limited instability should keep the severe threat low for both Tuesday and Wednesday. However, cannot rule out a stronger storm or two if it can take advantage of some of the less overworked environment to the north. Rain showers combined with cloudy conditions will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs remaining in the upper 40s to mid 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. These colder overnight lows will even allow for the potential of a rain/snow mix for portions of the higher terrain of the Pine Ridge. Little to no accumulations are expected.

High pressure and strong upper level ridging build back into the region on Wednesday night lasting through the end of the week. This will not only bring another brief period of dry conditions, but also a return to warmer temperatures. Highs return into the 70s and low 80s by Friday.

Outside of some isolated rain and thunderstorm chances across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills on Thursday night, the next potential for widespread thunderstorms arrives on the weekend. An upper level trough will dig south across the Rockies allowing for a low pressure system to develop across the central Plains. Severe risk is uncertain at this time, but will continue to monitor this developing system over the next few days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be northerly around 5 to 10 kts, with gusts up to 15 kts. Winds will then switch to the south this evening around 5 to 10 kts before shifting to the west southwest after midnight. Winds will then switch to the northwest Monday morning around 5 to 15 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.