textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

-Patchy fog is possible again tonight into Saturday morning, especially across the eastern and northeastern portions of the area.

-Well above-normal temperatures are expected this weekend, with highs reaching the 60s and potentially upper 60s in some locations.

-Above-normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the early into the middle of next week, with highs generally in the lower to middle 60s and limited precipitation chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Currently, a weak southern-stream disturbance is located across the Desert Southwest, promoting increasing westerly flow aloft across the region. Warm air advection (WAA) in the lower to middle levels will increase through the day as 850-mb and 700-mb winds become more southwesterly, supporting 850-mb temperatures increasing into the 10 to 13C range by this afternoon. Mid- to upper-level cloud cover associated with the disturbance to the west will continue to move across the region, though sufficient daytime mixing should allow highs to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area, with lower 50s expected farther east. Tonight, mid- to upper-level cloud cover should gradually exit the region from west to east. Meanwhile, increasing low-level moisture advection and light winds may support another round of fog development overnight into Saturday morning. Latest convection-allowing model guidance suggests the greatest potential for fog across eastern and northeastern portions of the forecast area. Fog coverage is expected to be less widespread than this morning, though localized dense fog cannot be ruled out. Confidence remains somewhat limited regarding the exact location and intensity of fog development, and observational trends and subsequent guidance will need to be monitored through the evening and overnight. Overnight lows should generally remain near or slightly above freezing across much of the area, with increasing low- level moisture potentially limiting radiational cooling where fog or low clouds develop.

Saturday, upper-level flow will become more northwesterly as ridging continues to build across the northern Plains, with troughing remaining across the northeastern United States. At the surface, winds will become more westerly, favoring downslope warming and drying from the Rockies, particularly across central and western Nebraska. Warmer temperatures in the lower to middle levels will support 850-mb temperatures in the 10 to 13C range across much of the region. With clearing skies, drier air, and more efficient boundary-layer mixing, highs should reach the lower to middle 60s across much of the area, with upper 60s possible across southwestern Nebraska where the warmest 850-mb temperatures are expected. These temperatures would be around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early November. Overnight lows Saturday night should generally remain in the middle to upper 30s, which is also above normal for this time of year.

Sunday, the upper-level ridge across the northern Plains will continue to amplify, with rising 500-mb heights and a persistent split-flow pattern across the CONUS. Southwesterly flow at 850 mb will continue to support warm air advection, with temperatures at this level increasing into the 13 to 15C range. With mostly clear skies and sufficient boundary-layer mixing, highs should reach the middle to upper 60s across much of the area, continuing the trend of well above-normal temperatures. A tightening surface pressure gradient will also support increasing southwest winds Sunday afternoon, particularly across the Sandhills into north-central Nebraska. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph, appear possible. Fire weather concerns may increase somewhat Sunday afternoon as minimum relative humidity values approach 25 percent across portions of western Nebraska. However, uncertainty remains regarding the extent of overlap between the lowest relative humidity values and strongest wind gusts. This will bear watching as Sunday approaches, particularly if deeper boundary-layer mixing results in lower relative humidity values or stronger wind gusts than currently forecast. Overnight lows Sunday night should generally remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Early into the middle of next week, split upper-level flow will continue across North America as an amplified ridge remains established across the northern Plains. This pattern will favor the polar jet stream remaining displaced north of the forecast area, while the southern-stream jet remains farther south across the southern CONUS. With the strongest forcing for ascent remaining displaced north and south of the region, generally dry conditions are expected across western and north-central Nebraska. Through Wednesday, the NBM and GEFS/EPS ensemble guidance continue to favor above-normal temperatures, with highs generally reaching the lower to middle 60s across much of the area. Persistent upper-level ridging, along with anomalously warm temperatures in the lower to middle levels, should support continued above-normal temperatures and limited precipitation chances through the middle of next week. By Thursday, forecast uncertainty begins to increase as differences emerge in the evolution of the upper-level pattern. The GFS/GEFS favors a trough digging farther south and west beneath the ridge across southern Canada, while the ECMWF/EPS maintains this feature farther east. Should the trough develop farther west and progress southward, a return to cooler temperatures would become more likely across western and north-central Nebraska. However, if the trough remains farther east, upper-level ridging may persist across the region, allowing above-normal temperatures to continue. Confidence remains low regarding the eventual evolution of this feature given the differences among ensemble guidance and the extended forecast range. Regardless, precipitation chances are expected to remain low through much of the long-term period, with the primary storm tracks generally remaining north and south of the forecast area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Fog has continued to dissipate across the area, with VFR conditions expected to prevail across much of western and north- central Nebraska over the next 24 hours. Light south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue through the afternoon and evening before becoming light and variable overnight. Increasing mid- to upper-level cloud cover will result in broken cloud decks at both terminals, though ceilings are expected to remain within VFR thresholds. Some fog development remains possible early Saturday morning, particularly across eastern and northeastern portions of the forecast area, including KLBF. However, confidence remains low regarding the coverage, timing, and potential visibility restrictions associated with any fog development. This will continue to be monitored and refined in subsequent TAF issuances.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.