textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalous warm temperatures to close out the week with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday, and mid to upper 80s with the possibility of some locations reaching the low 90s Friday.

- Elevated to possibly near critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday across the western Sandhills.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue Saturday across the forecast area. A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the area Sunday, with even cooler temperatures Monday through Wednesday.

- The threat for precipitation will increase beginning Sunday night over northwestern Nebraska, with the threat for precipitation spreading into the remainder of western and north central Nebraska Monday night.

- After mainly dry conditions Tuesday, a second round of precipitation is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Upper flow remains split with a ridging pattern across western CONUS, bringing northwest flow to the region. Beneath the lee side of this ridging pattern, a trough strengthens across portions of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains Thursday. At the surface, a surface low will deepen across western Nebraska through the afternoon. South southeasterly winds should remain mostly light but could see gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range across the region. Afternoon dewpoints will increase to the mid 50s which will keep afternoon humidity in the 30 to 50 percent range. Daytime highs will range as high as 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms, particularily across southwest Nebraska where 850mb temps are the warmest as well. Southwest Nebraska will see highs in the low to mid 80s, while north central Nebraska will see highs in the mid to upper 70s.

The upper ridging over western CONUS breaks down through the day Friday. This will create southwest flow aloft and warmer, drier conditions into the region. There still remains some disagreement on just how high temperatures will get Friday afternoon. As it stands now, areas across our northern and western CWA will see highs in the mid to upper 80s, where low 90s are not out of the realm of possiblity. Based on these trends, Imperial and Valentine daily high temperature records, each being at 91 degrees, have a low end (10 - 30 percent) chance of being broken.

The result of this ridge breakdown is at least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns for the western portion of the CWA. A dryline will set up over western Nebraska, dropping humidity down the mid teens to mid 20s. There is still model disagreement for just how far east the dryline progresses but could move as far east as Hwy 83. Southerly to southwesterly winds will be gusty at times, with peak gusts being in the range of 25 to 30 mph. Areas east of a line from Curtis to O'Neill have the greatest likelihood of gusts greater than 25 mph (40 to 60 percent). No Fire Weather headlines are out at this time, as the overlap between the strongest winds to the east and the lowest humidities in the west remains limited. That being said, this will be something to monitor closely if the overlap expands. Fire weather concerns will continue into the early weekend as detailed further in the long term below.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The presence of a strong low level jet Friday night, east of a surface trough of low pressure over the Nebraska Panhandle, will lead to a well mixed boundary layer Friday night into Saturday morning. With a mixed boundary layer, mild temperatures will continue into the overnight hours and Saturday morning. The latest NBM ensemble forecast has a low of 62 for LBF Saturday morning. This is around 10 degrees warmer than the latest MET and MAV lows for Saturday morning. I did go and trend lows down somewhat from the inherited NBM forecast but not as low as the MET and MAV numbers would suggest. This led to a low around 60 for North Platte Saturday morning which would be a record high minimum temperature for October 10th (record is 59). Gusty winds will transition into central and eastern portions of the forecast area on Saturday as the surface trough migrates into the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. Very warm temperatures are expected Saturday afternoon with highs ranging from the middle 80s to around 90 degrees. Highs were raised some from the initialized NBM forecast to bring them more in line with the warmer MET and MAV guidance. This yielded highs around 90 over SW Nebraska and in the Valentine area. Record highs for Saturday are well into the mid 90s for North Platte, Valentine, and Imperial so record highs are not anticipated attm. Minimum RH Saturday afternoon will approach 15 to 20 percent in the eastern Panhandle and NW Sandhills. However, with these areas INVOF the surface trough, winds are expected to remain below critical criteria of 25 MPH. Stronger winds are expected over eastern portions of the forecast area, however, minimum RH in these areas will range from 30 to 40 percent. Will mention the elevated to near critical fire weather concerns in the HWO and hit it hard in the fire weather forecast. A cold front will begin to push into far northwestern Nebraska by Sunday morning. With the forecast area being well ahead of the front Saturday night, very mild lows are expected. Lows will range from around 50 in the northwest to the lower 60s in the east, where winds are expected to persist overnight. For North Platte, the minimum of 60 degrees would still be below the record high minimum of 63 degrees for October 11. The cold front will stall across northwestern Nebraska on Sunday. This will lead to another mild day for most of the forecast area with highs into the 70s and lower 80s. Highs will be in the middle to upper 60s over northwestern portions of the forecast area INVOF the front. High pressure will track into the western Dakotas on Monday, forcing the front south into Kansas. The upper air pattern will amplify across the western CONUS Monday night into Tuesday, leading to southwesterly flow aloft across the high plains. A lead disturbance will ride over the stalled out surface front, initiating precipitation over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Some of this activity may lift into the forecast area Monday night. Beyond Monday night, mainly dry conditions are expected Tuesday with a decent threat for precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday-per the latest NBM forecast. This seems to agree with the latest deterministic GFS soln, however there are some notable differences between the latest EC soln with respect to precipitation chances or lack there of on Tuesday. For now, a dry forecast will be retained on Tuesday, however, there may be a need to introduce precipitation chances with subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Expect a few to scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL over the next 24 hours across western and north central Nebraska. Winds will be southerly this afternoon and may gust to 20 to 25 KTS at the KLBF terminal. Expect lighter winds this afternoon at the KVTN terminal with southerly winds around 10 KTS.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.