textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a threat for thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, mainly across eastern portions of the forecast area. There is a slight risk for severe storms both days.

- Ridging across the western CONUS, will transition east, then break down early next week. This will lead to normal to above normal temps this weekend, then cooler readings, especially over eastern portions of the forecast area next week.

- There will be daily chances for precipitation Monday through Wednesday next week. Coverage will be isolated to scattered at best.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

H5 pattern this morning had high pressure over the southwestern CONUS with a ridge extending north northwest into Idaho and eastern Oregon. Low pressure was anchored over southern portions of the Hudson Bay of Canada. A trough extended south into the upper Ohio Valley. Across the central and northern plains, broad west- northwesterly and northwesterly flow aloft extended west into the northern Rockies and southwestern Canada. Earlier today, strong to severe thunderstorms tracked from portions of north central Nebraska into the eastern Sandhills and south central and southeastern Nebraska. At the surface, high pressure was located over Minnesota. A frontal boundary extended from around Valentine, south to just east of North Platte. This front has further been reinforced by an outflow boundary from convection over south central and southeastern Nebraska. As of 2 PM CDT, skies were partly to mostly cloudy in the east and mostly clear in the west. Temperatures ranged from 75 degrees at Broken Bow, Ainsworth and O'Neill to 87 degrees at Ogallala.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Surface high pressure will build south into the eastern half of Nebraska overnight. This will lead to light winds, mainly clear skies and lows in the upper 50s. Based on short term guidance and SREF ensemble probabilities, did introduce a mention of fog for the eastern Sandhills and portions of central Nebraska tonight. This was mainly for areas which received rainfall from earlier today. Surface high pressure will transition into southeastern Nebraska on Thursday. At the same time, a weak frontal boundary will become situated from southwestern Nebraska into portions of north central Nebraska. The CAMS have been consistent in developing isolated convection INVOF this boundary Thursday afternoon/evening. Steep mid level lapse rates INVOF the front coupled with deep layer shear of 40+ KTS will be sufficient for super cell thunderstorms. The threat will be conditional, however, if storms can develop, they will have a high probability to become severe. ATTM feel the greatest threat for storms along the front will be in the northeastern portions of the forecast area. Further southwest, H5 ht rises are noted during the afternoon hours which will increase capping across SW Nebraska. The latest NBM forecast confined pops to the southeastern portion of the forecast area. Based on the latest CAMS, extended precipitation chances Thursday afternoon/evening into northeastern portions of the forecast area where capping strength will be much weaker.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The latest NAM12 and GFS solns develop a warm front from northwestern into south central Nebraska Friday. This is in response to increasing mid level hts from the southwest. The latest MET and MAV guidance has highs well into the mid and upper 90s across southwestern into portions of the eastern Panhandle Friday afternoon. Further east and along and north of the warm front, lower to middle 70 dew points will push into the the central and eastern Sandhills, as well as portions of northeastern and central Nebraska. The latest NAM soln develops 5000+ J/KG capes north of the front Friday afternoon. Very steep low and mid level lapse rates, co-located with the high CAPE and deep layer shear of 50+ KTS will lead to a decent threat for very large hail. Also, along and north of the warm front, low level winds will back to the east and forecast 200+ 0-2 KM helicities would be indicative of a tornado threat. Forecast hodographs Friday afternoon north of the front also are indicative of a tornado threat with low level curvature noted from the surface up to H850. In the wake of exiting convection Friday night, a northern stream trough will force a back door cold front into north central and eastern Nebraska Saturday. This feature will cool temperatures back to around 80 in the northeastern forecast area. Further southwest, highs will reach into the lower 90s over SW Nebraska. Late in the day Saturday, convective development will be possible over the higher terrain of eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming INVOF a theta e ridge. This activity will track east Saturday evening. An active pattern will continue early next week as a strong upper level trough traverses southern Canada. This feature will suppress ridging to the south and southwest early next week. This will lead to below normal temps in the northeastern forecast area with continued warm readings in the SW CWA. Northwesterly and westerly flow aloft will allow the pattern to remain active with periodic chances for thunderstorms through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across most of the region tonight and tomorrow. The main exception to this will be areas across southwest and south central Nebraska overnight. In the predawn hours, light surface winds and ample low level moisture may lead to areas of patchy fog development, especially in lower lying regions. Still some uncertainty in how dense any potential fog may be, but this does appear to be the main aviation concern. Otherwise, skies remain mostly clear with light surface winds. Some additional shower and thunderstorm activity is possible tomorrow afternoon and evening, though should remain east of KVTN and KLBF.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.