textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers are expected to continue today, lasting through Monday night across most of the region.

- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and warmer temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Low to moderate confidence in increasing precipitation potential by the end of the week and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

An upper level low is observed across the Desert Southwest, with a plume of Pacific moisture tracking along the Front Range. With this upper level low, an upper level speed maximum can be seen across eastern portions of New Mexico and Colorado, providing plenty of divergence aloft across the region. As the moisture continues to stream into the region, aided by the favorable ascent in the environment, rain showers are expected to persist through the overnight hours.

Throughout the day, showers and potentially a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to stream across the region from the southwest. With showers expected to be more scattered in nature, this could lead to additional "on and off" showers across the region, especially in the morning to early afternoon hours. By late afternoon, a more organized push of rain showers is expected, which should bring some heavier rainfall as showers track across the region. Heavier rainfall totals continue to favor the eastern portions of the region, though latest guidance suggests at least a wetting precipitation across most of the region today and this evening.

Overnight, the upper level low is expected to lift slightly to the north, keeping favorable upper level flow across the region. In fact, fairly widespread showers are expected across the entire region tonight into Monday morning, with potential for some heavier rainfall at times, as the Pacific moisture continues to stream across the region. Guidance continues to suggest wetting rainfall region wide, but again, heavier totals favor areas mainly east of Highway 83. This shows up quite well in latest ensemble guidance, particularly the GEFS solution. However, totals through Monday afternoon are generally expected to bring at least a quarter of an inch across the region, with best odds to exceed one inch of total rainfall along and east of Highway 83. However, cannot completely rule out that some locations west of Highway 83 may see totals nearing and possibly exceeding one inch, especially if embedded thunderstorm activity occurs. Though there is a slight chance for a few rumbles of thunder, given the current environment, would not anticipate any severe weather if any thunderstorms would develop.

Something to keep a close eye on, especially overnight into early Monday morning, will be the potential for a few snowflakes to mix in to the precipitation, especially areas across northwest Nebraska. Overnight lows along Pine Ridge are expected to drop near, and in some locations, just below the freezing mark. As rain showers are expected to persist overnight, there could be sufficient overlap with the colder temperatures, particularly subfreezing temperatures aloft, that could allow for some brief snow development. However, given the warm soil temperatures, do not anticipate that any snow that may develop will be able to accumulate. However, something to keep an eye on, as we continue to track into late October.

The upper level low continues lifting to the north throughout the day on Monday, with the last push of rain showers across the region. As the low is expected to lift slightly north-northeast, still expect best chances for precipitation will favor the eastern zones, mainly east of HIghway 83. Showers are expected to gradually diminish throughout the day, eventually coming to s stop by Monday evening. As this low lifts out of the region, expect clearing skies, especially across southwest and western Nebraska. This will help temperatures cool off on Monday night, with widespread lows expected to drop below freezing across the region. The exception will be for areas across north central Nebraska, where stratus may linger, keeping lows just above the freezing mark. While this is not unusual for late October (we typically see lows in the low 30s to upper 20s), it is at least something to keep in mind for the Tuesday morning commute.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Quieter weather will move in on Tuesday, although some additional low end (less than 25 percent) PoPs are then possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a weak trough pushes through the region. At this point, not expecting much in the way of rainfall totals as any shower development will remain isolated in nature and mainly confined to areas east of US-183. While some embedded thunderstorms may also be possible with this Tuesday activity, current trends continue to keep the majority of the precipitation just to the east across eastern Nebraska where the best instability will be located. Therefore, not anticipating any severe storms with this system. Drier conditions return mid-week as weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the region. A return to scattered showers is expected by late week and into the first half of next weekend, but confidence remains too low in development, timing, and strength to put much more than a mention in the forecast at this time.

As upper level ridging builds back into the region on Tuesday, warm air advection in combination with decreasing clouds will allow for warmer temperatures to return through the end of the week. Temperatures will steadily rise back into the low to mid 60s Tuesday through Friday. Some locations along and south of the I-80 corridor could even rise back into the 70s towards the end of the week. Slightly cooler temperatures (but still in the low to mid 60s) return on Saturday as precipitation chances return to the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Isolated showers will persist through tonight with the potential of some heavier showers dropping visibility restrictions down to at least 2 miles. In addition to reduced visibility, ceilings will drop to 500 feet across the region this afternoon lasting through the overnight. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible by late this afternoon and early evening across southwest and central Nebraska. Confidence in development of thunderstorms is low and therefore have not been put in the prevailing forecast at this time, but is worth a mention here nonetheless. Otherwise, outside of the stronger showers or storms, westerly winds will remain under 10 knots through the TAF period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.