textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty north winds this late this afternoon will continue to lead to a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. - Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop this evening, with rainfall chances expected through Wednesday, falling across western and southwestern Nebraska.

- Some light snow showers possible late Tuesday night across Nebraska panhandle, but little to no accumulation is expected.

-Low confidence in showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

In the short term, the main concern will be elevated fire weather concerns, a chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms as well as a chance of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

Prior to the isolated chances of thunderstorms late this afternoon, A cold front has moved south through the state, bringing gusty northerly winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 35 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns still remain until either the winds start to settle or humidity climbing above elevated fire weather thresholds.

As it looks right now, models have been a little disagreeable over the exact timing but generally agree upon the potential of isolated showers and thunderstorms tracking over southwest NE, along and south of I-80. Severe potential remains low at this time as instability remains on the weaker side with HREF SBCAPE values ranging from 100 to 200 J/kg. However, a few stronger storms could produce gusty, erratic winds. Total rainfall amounts will initially remain light, excluding the of a couple stronger cells producing a few hundreths to a tenth of an inch. Overnight, more widespread rainfall and longer-lasting showers are expected. Given the longer duration, more beneficial rainfall amounts will be possible(up to a couple tenths of an inch) especially across potions of the south-central Panhandle and southwest NE.

By Tuesday, a mid-level shortwave will make its way south from the Dakota - Wyoming border and help deepen the surface low. This should help continue the widespread chances for rain showers lasting though the day and evening. Temperatures will remain cooler, in the mid 40s to low 50s (10 to 12 degrees below normal) across much of the region. Overnight lows will drop into the low 30s which could introduce some light snow showers developing across western Nebraska. Limited accumulations are expected as warm soil temperatures will mostly melt any snow that settles, but a dusting to a few tenths of snow accumulations is possible.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

By Wednesday morning, temperatures rise back above freezing, and any snow showers will quickly change back into rain. Lingering showers are expected to clear by Wednesday evening but will still keep highs cooler in the low to mid 50s. High pressure is expected to build back into the region late Wednesday night, allowing skies to clear out. The result of these clearing skies with cold air advecting into the region will allow lows to drop into the mid 20s to mid 30s across southwest Nebraska and the western Panhandle Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Freeze headlines may be warranted as confidence is increasing but has been held off for now.

Strong upper-level ridging from western CONUS will continue to keep high pressure in the region Thursday. This will help bring highs back up to the low 70s, but will also be a factor into elevated fire conditions as humidity drops to the upper teens across most of the Sandhills. Additionally, a shortwave develops on the leeward side of the ridge Thursday afternoon, which could lead to some active weather in way of showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two.

Warm temperatures will remain heading into the weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s each day through Sunday. Friday could bring some elevated fire weather concerns as humidity will be in the low to mid 20s across most of the region. The next opportunity for widespread thunderstorms will arrive over the weekend on Saturday. An upper level trough starts to track in behind the departing ridge, bringing showers and thunderstorm chances. The potential for severe storms with this this system remains uncertain at this time but will continue to be monitored over the upcoming days for any development.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Breezy north winds of 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts continue, but will start to diminish through the evening. Winds will remain light out of the north tonight into Tuesday, with speeds of 5 to 10 kts. Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern Nebraska will exit the area over the next few hours. Increasing chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight through Tuesday afternoon, mainly across western and southwest Nebraska, including the KLBF terminal. Lower ceilings are expected overnight into Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions prevailing initially and then the potential for MVFR conditions developing into Tuesday afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.