textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight and tomorrow. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) has been issued for both days, with damaging winds and large hail looking to be the main threats.

- The pattern shifts towards cooler than seasonal temperatures Thursday into early next week.

- The cooler pattern will also bring daily precipitation chances, with potential for locally heavy rainfall each day.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

An upper level trough is located off the Pacific Coast, which has nudged an upper level high to the east, now located over the Panhandle regions of Oklahoma and Texas. This has pushed stronger winds aloft north across the Dakotas, with some stronger winds aloft remaining across portions of northern Nebraska. At the surface, low pressure is observed over eastern and south central Nebraska. A stationary front tracks across the northern Sandhills, with a north- south oriented surface trough across the western Sandhills. Highs are observed ranging form the upper 80s across north central Nebraska to the upper 90s to lower 100s across the Panhandle, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. A few weaker cells have developed along the stationary front across northern Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Storms are expected to continue forming across western Nebraska this afternoon, especially in vicinity of the boundaries, where surface convergence is enhanced. As seen by the LBF 18z upper air sounding, there is already ample surface based CAPE across the region, with values already exceeding 6,000 J/kg! However, there is still some remaining CIN from this morning that will need to be overcome. However, if cells develop along the surface boundaries, lapse rates aloft, as well as the instability aloft, should support strong updraft development this afternoon and evening. CAM guidance continues to suggest the possibility of a few stronger cells forming across the Sandhills this afternoon, in a region just south of the current convective outlook. Despite this, if cells can get going in this environment this afternoon, think there does exist some potential for the stronger cells to produce some large hail.

However, the "main event" is expected to be the late evening to overnight convection across South Dakota tracking into northern Nebraska. This is the area covered by a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). With the stronger deep layer shear across the Dakotas, may see some more organized convective development across South Dakota tracking south into the region. With the ample instability aloft across Nebraska, storms tracking into the area should be able to maintain their intensity, bringing a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Do think the bigger concern is hail at this time, though the wind threat will certainly need to be closely monitored, especially if convection grows more linear in nature.

Behind the storms overnight, expecting light winds to prevail again, especially across northern Nebraska. This, combined with ample low level moisture may bring an additional risk for patchy fog development during the predawn hours, lasting into the early morning. For now, think the main area of concern will remain portions of north central Nebraska and possibly into the Sandhills, where lower level humidity is expected to be more substantial. Further to the south, forecast soundings suggest a slightly drier low level layer, which will likely inhibit the potential for fog to develop and spread.

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday across the region, with the entire region now under s Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Though partly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day, somewhat limiting the ability for instability to build throughout the day, there should still be sufficient CAPE available for stronger cells by the late afternoon and evening. An upper level shortwave is expected to track into the region, enhancing upper level winds, and thus deep layer shear. Combined, this should support organized convection across the region, with some initial threat for more isolated cells becoming more multicellular through the evening. With the ambient environment, still believe that large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. However, with the upper pattern starting to shift, may also begin to see deeper moisture across the region, supporting a risk for locally heavy rainfall. In fact, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall given the expected moisture tracking into the region. With active weather the next few evening, certainly make sure to have multiple ways to receive updates and warnings.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The notable pattern shift is expected to be in full swing by Thursday, as cooler than seasonal temperatures are expected into the early portions of next week. Have seen a slight warming trend in the latest forecast runs, which now indicate highs late week and through the weekend will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Still, even though there is a slight warming trend in forecast highs, these still remain cooler than seasonal, as typical highs this time of year are still around 87 to 89 degrees. A closer examination at the probabilistic temperature spreads show still a fair amount of uncertainty in exact temperatures through this pattern shift. Much will largely depend on cloud cover and precipitation chances through the week, though some questions still remain on how far south an area of cooler temperatures aloft will be able to track. If this cooler air can sink further south, then we may still favor highs struggling to leave the 70s across most of the region. However, even with this slight uncertainty, even the forecast highs in the 80s are only a few degrees above the 80 degree mark. Interestingly enough, these slightly warmer highs still remain between the 10th and 25th percentile compared to local climatology, giving higher confidence in cooler than average temperatures.

With the upper level trough remaining to the west, will also see some enhancement in the lower level flow, which should bring a plume of monsoonal moisture across the region through the weekend. This plume of enhanced moisture will support higher than average PWAT values, supporting locally heavy rainfall across most of the region. With this push of moisture and a fairly active weather pattern, daily precipitation chances are expected across most of the region, with potential for some beneficial rainfall totals through the weekend. Ensembles remain fairly split on their solutions for where heavier rain is likely to set up. Looking at likelihood of exceeding one inch of total precipitation through Saturday evening, the European solution indicates a 50 percent chance for most of the area north of I-80 getting at least an inch, with a 70 percent chance of this occurring north of Highway 2. The GEFS solution meanwhile only indicates a 20 percent chance of this occurring across most of the area, and only a 40 percent chance north of Highway 20! Currently, ensemble guidance continues this difference when reduced to even one half inch, with the European solution well over 50 percent north of I-80, and the GEFS only 30 to 40 percent north of I-80. At the least, thinking that wetting rainfall will occur, however, question remains on what the higher end amounts will be through the weekend. For what it is worth, WPC has issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall each day through Saturday for all of western and north central Nebraska.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms may develop across the Sandhills later this afternoon, with no impacts expected at area terminals. Later this evening, as storms track southeast across South Dakota, may see some impacts at KVTN, especially in the late night to overnight hours. As storms exit the region, patchy fog and low stratus are expected across portions of north central Nebraska, including KVTN. This may lead to MVFR to IFR conditions, especially if fog comes in more dense than currently forecast.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.