textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances are probable (70-90%) Thursday night through Friday morning with a wetting rain of a quarter inch or more likely across all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Dry and warmer conditions return this weekend into early next week with a return to middle and upper 80s Sunday through Tuesday.

- The extended forecast suggests broad southwesterly flow with upstream troughing stalled over the Great Basin favoring recurring precipitation chances and above normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Today, an upper trough will deepen from Montana south through Wyoming into the Colorado Rockies. Downstream, atmospheric moisture will be on the increase from the Southern Plains into western Nebraska as surface low pressure deepens across New Mexico into southern Colorado. Southeast winds will become breezy west of Highway 83 by afternoon. Will see stratus develop across southwest Nebraska this morning and persist into the afternoon. This will limit highs to the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the mid 60s northern Nebraska into central Nebraska, where cloud ceilings should be higher. There will be low chances for showers in the morning across the southwest as a weak disturbance moves across in southwest flow aloft. A lead disturbance ahead of the main upper trough will extend from far southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range by late afternoon. This will bring increasing chances for showers and few thunderstorms across the west and south in the afternoon.

Tonight, the lead disturbance in southwest flow aloft will advance northeast ahead of the main upper trough which is forecast to move through the panhandle by 12Z. PWATs peak near 0.75 inch across the northwest Sandhills to a little over an inch elsewhere in the evening. MUCAPEs should be limited to 300 J/kg or less, and any thunderstorms should be elevated. A few strong storms may develop early evening in the western panhandle and northeast Colorado and could drift into the far southwestern zones and weaken. During the evening and overnight, a few bands of heavier rainfall oriented southwest to northeast are likely. Categorical POPs near 90 percent spread east across the forecast area overnight.

Friday, the upper trough will become negatively tilted, with the trough axis located from western North Dakota into eastern Nebraska by 18Z. Categorical POPs through 15Z east of Valentine through Broken Bow, with chance POPS far southwest. POPs end across the west by afternoon, with low POPs lingering in the east. Will see clearing skies from west to east through the day. Winds will turn northwest behind a cold front, a become windy across the west at 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Highs to range in the low to mid 60s.

For the Thursday into Friday period, NBM probabilities of over a quarter inch are near 95 percent across much of the area, and even from 60 to 90 percent for a half inch or more.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Friday Night...upper trough quickly lifts north and east with increasing subsidence beneath strong mid-level height rises in its wake. Precipitation will quickly wane as this happens with a return to dry conditions for most if not all of west central Nebraska by Midnight. Cooler air will filter into our western zones but lingering clouds and low-level moisture should hold eastern zones up a bit. The result is low temperatures ranging from middle to upper 30s in the west to low to mid 40s in the east. At this time, the potential for frost appears low but NBM probabilities suggest fairly expansive 40-60% probabilities for lows to fall below 36F. Will need to watch this potential in the coming days.

This weekend/early next week...broad height rises overspread much of the central and western CONUS as high pressure aloft develops across the Desert Southwest. This should coincide with increasing temperatures as thermal ridging extends up across the High Plains. Temperatures at h7 will continue to climb and should surpass the 90th percentile in NAEFS climatology by Monday. This points to the warmest days of the forecast period being Sunday through Tuesday with widespread 80s expected and a few locations pushing near 90F on Monday. This will be joined by largely dry conditions outside a few low-end chances favoring our western zones in the afternoons. Ensemble probabilities paint 40-50% of seeing > 0.01" west of Highway 83 on both Monday and Tuesday. This likely aligns with isolated convection and the guidance having issues defining a more precise placement. Stronger troughing will move onshore the Pacific Northwest by late Monday into Tuesday with a cutoff low taking shape by early Wednesday. This increases the uncertainty in the extended forecast as progression and evolution of this feature will play a large role in local weather. Overall, temperatures appear likely to remain on the warmer side with strong southwesterly flow across the area. This should lead to fairly high moisture content towards the middle of the week but forcing via smaller scale features remains uncertain at this time. Either way, the pattern appears favorable for recurring rain chances with the lingering question on if the necessary lift arrives.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Early morning VFR conditions will quickly give way to increased impacts, particularly across southwest Nebraska including the LBF airspace. Closer to midday, light rain accompanied by low CIGs will envelope much of southwest Nebraska with prolonged impact through the afternoon and overnight. How far north impacts reach remain somewhat uncertain and so will only carry a PROB30 at VTN for daytime precipitation. Confidence in precise magnitudes of low CIGs is limited somewhat so refinements with later forecasts remains possible. Tonight, further degradation is likely as ceilings likely fall to LIFR conditions with duration likely to carry much of the overnight through late morning on Friday as additional rain and thunderstorms move in from the west.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.