textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather concerns increase across far western Nebraska into the Panhandle today. This is due to a combination of gusty winds and low humidity.

- Rain chances increase behind a strong cold front tonight. An isolated severe wind gust or two will be possible with the stronger storms this evening.

- Much cooler on Tuesday with highs only in the 70s.

- The greatest threat for precipitation (60-70% chances) in the long term forecast are Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s. A gradual warmup will push highs into the 80s for Thursday with 90s returning for Friday into Saturday.

- The threat for organized measurable precipitation beyond Wednesday is low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A classic upper level ridge breakdown occurs today with additional fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect across the western Sandhills into the Nebraska Panhandle. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for more details regarding the fire weather concerns.

As mentioned a classic ridge breakdown occurs as a strong shortwave crosses the northern plains and flattens the upper level ridging that has been in place this past weekend. This will drive a strong cold front southeast into the area. This front will roughly extend from near Ainsworth to Ogallala by early this evening. A rather deep area of low pressure will be centered across northeast Colorado, with at least slightly backed southeast low-level flow east of the front and associated low pressure center. A capped atmosphere will limit much in the way of surfaced based development right along and ahead of the front, the more probable scenario will be for elevated showers/storms to become more widespread this evening as warm air advection develops atop the cooler air at the surface behind the front. Even though the storms will be somewhat elevated, DCAPE values (at least through mid-evening) will support isolated damaging severe gusts. This threat should wane by late evening as strong cold air advection deepens the cooler air though the boundary layer. Strong northeast winds, with gusts around 40 mph, appear likely this evening as the the deep area of low pressure shifts eastward into Kansas. Late this evening additional convection develops across portions of northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota. This will be due to increasing mid-level warm air advection. This activity should remain sub-severe...as it will be rooted above the continued deepening cool boundary layer. Some lingering shower activity will be possible into Tuesday morning. Otherwise Tuesday will be much cooler, with highs only in the 70s. Coolest across northern Nebraska where lower 70s are forecast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A surface frontal boundary will remain anchored over Kansas Tuesday night into Wednesday. North of the front, persistent low level easterly winds will continue into Wednesday. An upper level trough and associated mid level frontogenesis will increase across central and southern Nebraska Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, bringing the best chances for precipitation for the forecast area in the long term forecast. The inherited forecast has a broad swath of 60 to 70% pops across the central and southern portion of the forecast area. Looking at the NBM ensembles tonight, there is a 70 to 90 percent chance of 12 hr QPF> 0.01 inches in these areas ending at 00z Thursday. When this threshold is increased to 0.10 inches, probabilities fall off to 50 to 60 percent. The latest deterministic GFS, EC and NAM12 solns develop a swath of precipitation across central and southern Nebraska overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, lending further support to likely pops. Ridging will begin to build northeast from the SW CONUS beginning Thursday with the ridge persisting through Sunday. After readings in the 70s Wednesday, readings will climb into the 80s Thursday with 90s returning to the area on Friday. By the weekend some readings up to 100 degrees are possible in the west and southwest. The latest statistical MEX guidance mentions 102 for a high Saturday for North Platte and 103 for Valentine. Beyond Wednesday night, the threat for organized precipitation appears low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

A cold front will push across Nebraska today bringing not only gusty winds up to 35 knots, but also a wind shift from the south to the north by early evening. Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also possible with damaging and erratic winds being the main threat. Thunderstorms come to an end around Midnight CT with drier conditions returning through Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the only major weather concern will be some smoke across the region. This smoke could cause some minor visibility restrictions down to 6 miles may be possible at both terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Another round of near critical and critical fire weather conditions appears likely this afternoon into the early evening hours across the western Sandhills, Eastern Panhandle and portions of southwestern Nebraska. A frontal boundary will drop south across northwestern Nebraska today and is expected to be oriented from Ogallala to Ainsworth by 00z Tuesday. Wind gust potential up to 40 MPH behind the front looks probable this afternoon. Across fire zone 204 minimum RH this afternoon reaches 15 to 20 percent. The inherited forecast has a red flag warning currently in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT today and this RFW will continue unchanged. Was considering expansion of the RFW into zone 210, however, afternoon RH only reaches 20 to 25 percent. As the front approaches SW Nebraska this evening, thunderstorm development is possible. With a limited threat initially for dry lightning. However with PWATS in the 1 to 1.25 inch range preceding thunderstorm development over SW Nebraska, the threat for dry thunderstorms appears low, however cannot totally rule out a dry lightning strike or two during initial thunderstorm development. Will mention this possible threat for dry lightning in the HWO and FWF, however do not feel the threat is great enough to warrant expansion of the RFW into zone 210.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.