textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances increase today and persist into tomorrow, with the greatest accumulations (0.10-0.25") across western Nebraska.

- A wintry mix is possible both early this morning and again on Tuesday morning, though little to no snow and ice accumulations are expected at this time. Patchy dense fog is also possible Tuesday morning.

- High confidence in above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

- Moderate confidence in track of a late week system which has the potential to bring rain/snow to much of the region.

- Low to moderate confidence in thunderstorm potential on Thursday evening.

- Moderate confidence in a dry weekend with above normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 257 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Currently, temperatures have fallen into the upper 20s to low 30s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Increasing moisture advection is noted across portions of central and north central Nebraska, as low stratus is overspreading areas near and east of HWY 83.

For today, expect light precipitation to overspread portions of northern Nebraska through early this afternoon. This is in response to increasing isentropic ascent, as the broad warm advection regime persists amid deepening surface low pressure across eastern Colorado. Forecast soundings suggest a very brief threat for a mix of rain and snow at the onset of precipitation, before quickly becoming all rain as temperatures warm this afternoon. No snow accumulations are expected this morning. This initial round of light rain will quickly lift north into South Dakota this afternoon, with a brief return of dry conditions to the area. Clouds erode from west to east this afternoon, with the sun returning to areas west of HWY 83 for a few hours this afternoon. This helps to boost temperatures across western Nebraska, with highs today ranging from the middle 50s in north central Nebraska to the low 60s west of HWY 61.

By tonight, an upper low will eject east out of the Rockies and into the central Plains through the day tomorrow. The aforementioned surface low will eject southeast through Colorado, reaching the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles by late tomorrow morning. As this low departs to the south, a cold front will quickly move through the area from north to south, exiting early tomorrow morning. As the mid- level low passes nearly overhead tomorrow morning and afternoon, modestly increasing cold advection aloft will constrict the thermal gradient with time. This increased area of FGEN will lead to precipitation overspreading northern and western Nebraska again late tomorrow morning. Again, thermodynamic profiles look to largely support an all rain p-type, though snow may briefly mix in during the morning hours. Further southeast, fog is expected to overspread much of southwest and central Nebraska late tonight and into much of the morning hours tomorrow. This fog may be dense, and trends will need to be monitored for future dense fog headlines. A look at forecast soundings suggest a deep enough moist layer and just enough ascent to support a threat for drizzle as well, and this will need to be monitored very closely. Temperatures just a few degrees colder than forecast would bring a threat for freezing drizzle tomorrow morning to much of the area, and would lead to impacts to area roads. As of now, there appears to be enough of a consensus keeping temperatures in the middle 30s as this fog/drizzle occurs, and should keep any freezing precipitation threat nil. Trends will need to be monitored closely, though the window for any ice accretions should be limited to early tomorrow morning.

Light rain persists into tomorrow afternoon, slowly spreading south and east with time as the system continues to move off to the southeast. The greatest coverage looks to be across western Nebraska tomorrow afternoon, and this is where amounts look to be greatest (0.10-0.25") at this time. Rain begins to exit the area tomorrow night, with dry conditions returning for all early Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 257 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Weak upper level ridging returns on Wednesday behind the departing low keeping conditions dry through Thursday. Highs will return to the upper 50s to upper 60s (even into the low 70s in some locations) on both Wednesday and Thursday.

The next developing upper level low arrives Thursday evening lasting into Saturday morning. As the low deepens and pushes through Nebraska, much of the region could see widespread rain/snow, however, precip type remains a concern with the majority of the region seeing rain. Areas across the Pine Ridge will remain cooler and could see some rain/snow mix or all snow even during the day on Friday. The return of precipitation and developing low will bring in cooler air once again for the end of the week with highs dropping back into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Friday.

There is also a potential for some convection on Thursday evening. Current guidance suggests there will be marginal instability around by late afternoon into the evening which will support some thunderstorm development. While not anticipating severe storms at this time, there could be enough support for some stronger storms across the Sandhills and into portions of north central Nebraska. Currently thinking that the main threats will be gusty winds up to 55 mph, although some small hail may be possible as well, especially in the stronger storms. Will continue to monitor this over the next few days.

Precipitation comes to an end by early Saturday morning (around or shortly after Midnight). A return to drier conditions along with milder temperatures continues through the weekend. Thanks to a surge of warm air advection into the central Plains, expect highs to quickly rebound back into the mid 50s to low 60s on Saturday with widespread 60s on Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Some lower clouds or light fog will be possible across portions of southwest Nebraska through this morning before improving after sunrise. Northern Nebraska could see some stronger south southeasterly wind gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Otherwise, precipitation should hold off until after 06Z Tuesday. Confidence remains low in widespread rain across either terminal before 12Z and therefore have been left out of the going forecast at this time. However, confidence remains high in patchy dense fog across southwest and central Nebraska early Tuesday morning. Visibility restrictions down to 2 miles, potentially down to 1 mile or less, will be possible at times.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.