textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunderstorm potential will persist into Thursday with well below normal temperatures expected.

- Passing high pressure on Friday will support drier conditions with continued cooler temperatures.

- Moderate to high confidence in drier conditions through the weekend.

- Moderate confidence in a return to normal or above normal temperatures for the weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

This morning, steady rain and general thunderstorms continue to percolate across far southwest Nebraska. This activity is largely driven by a convectively reinforced frontal boundary, settling south into northwest Kansas by earlier convection and resulting cold pool development. Increasing frontogenesis will support renewed convection across the southwest and this may pose a risk of heavy rainfall in the area. HREF output shows localized heavy rains in Chase County where heavy rains fell earlier. Believe some hydro threat may persist but probability matched mean output shows generally less than a half inch of new rain in the early morning Thursday so no headlines are anticipated at this time.

Thursday/Thursday night...southwest rain and thunderstorms should continue to slowly sink south. Meanwhile further north across the Sandhills, lagging mid-level forcing via additional frontogenesis should allow for another arc of rain and thunderstorms to develop. Recent HREF run shows slight increase in rainfall probabilities with recent HRRR runs being more aggressive. This potential persists through midday into the afternoon with scattered thunderstorms. The background environment is much more marginal with respect to severe weather: MUCAPE limited to < 1000 j/kg. Shear remains strong as h5 flow continues around 30 knots out of the northwest. While shear is supportive, the lack of stronger instability along with fairly broad forcing should complicate things with storm interactions hampering updraft strength. The result is more general thunderstorms favored versus severe. The SPC continues a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for our western and southwestern zones. At this time, believe this is adequate as the shear could potentially support a stronger storm or two. That said, widespread organized severe weather is not expected. Temperatures will be much cooler with expansive clouds and precipitation potential. Highs will struggle to climb out of the lower 60s for some across the Sandhills which will be around 20F below normal for late June. Recent moderate to heavy rainfall will likely help introduce low-level moisture and as high pressure settles through the area, some fog may be possible. Will omit mention for now until confidence in precise placement and magnitude can be sorted out.

Friday/Friday night...calmer conditions arrive for Friday. High pressure will settle east with return southerly flow becoming established across western Nebraska. This should allow temperatures to moderate to the middle 70s to near 80F though this remains slightly below normal. Dew points will climb again during the day with afternoon values reaching the lower 60s. This will push up against a dryline setting up over the Nebraska Panhandle/southeast Wyoming. A relatively narrow plume of moderate instability should set up, largely west of Highway 61. Afternoon convection will likely develop to the west within a moderately sheared environment. Though shear will remain fairly strong across much of the region, the sharp instability gradient along with increased capping with eastward extent casts doubt on how far east convection can remain sustained. Recent runs of the NAM12 have shown steadily decreasing QPF output east of Highway 385 over the past few days. This aligns well with NBM probabilities which show < 10% for greater than a tenth of an inch of rainfall anywhere east of this same line. This supports a largely dry forecast outside of Slight Chance PoPs in our far west and even these are limited to 20% or less. Low temperatures should settle into the upper 50s to lower 60s under broad high level clouds and with southerly winds from a developing LLJ.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Upper level ridging begins to build into the central US on Saturday bringing a return to drier and warmer conditions. Temperatures will begin to moderate back to near or slightly above normal (mid 80s) on Saturday as warm air advection with 850mb temperatures in the 20 to 28 C range push into the region. This will result in surface highs to return to the mid to upper 80s on Saturday. Continued WAA into Nebraska will keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through early next week.

While temperatures will remain warm through the extended period, the dry spell will come to an end by the beginning of next week. As the ridge begins to slide off to the east by early next week, a few weak shortwave troughs will push into the Plains off the Rockies bringing a return to isolated precipitation chances. While not expecting widespread severe thunderstorms at this time, some stronger storms will be entirely possible, especially in the evening hours. Will continue to monitor the severe potential over the next few days with adjustments to the forecast as needed.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region through this morning. A brief dry period is expected from late morning through mid-afternoon, however, skies will remain overcast with ceilings generally below 8000 feet. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop by late afternoon, potentially impacting both terminals, through the evening hours. Some lower ceilings as well as reduced visibility will be possible with these showers. Precipitation will gradually diminish by Midnight with ceilings remain below 2000 feet through sunrise Friday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.