textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across southwest Nebraska

- Precipitation across portions of the Sandhills into northern Nebraska, light snow possible across far northern Nebraska tonight

- Very warm temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the 70s to low 80s, with gusty winds

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Today through Saturday...Upper level low pressure will track from northeastern Wyoming into south central South Dakota today. In advance of this feature, mid level warm air advection will lift across the northeastern forecast area this morning with a threat for precipitation across the northern third of the forecast area. Later this afternoon, the threat for precipitation will increase across northwestern Nebraska, transitioning east tonight as favorable lift wraps around the western and southwestern periphery of the exiting low. As for precipitation types, temperatures will remain warm enough today to facilitate all liquid precipitation. With cooler air being drawn south behind the exiting system tonight, there will be an increased threat for light snow over northwestern Nebraska. Looking at the ensemble NBM QPF probabilities, the threat for precipitation > 0.10" is less than 50 percent and confined to northern portions of Sheridan county and far NW Cherry County. With temperatures forecast to be in the upper 20s to around 30 in these areas-coenciding with the best lift, would yield around an inch of snow (10:1 ratio). That being said, even with some local enhancement in the Pine Ridge, 1 to 2 inches is on the high end of snow accums tonight. Further east, a dusting to under an inch is possible generally along the NE/SD border. The threat for precipitation will Shift northeast of the area overnight with dry conditions expected for Saturday. Highs today will reach the middle 40s in the north with lower 60s in far SW Nebraska. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s with highs on Saturday ranging from the mid 40s to mid 60s.

Later this morning, winds will shift to the west and northwest across the southwestern half of the forecast area behind a warm front. This feature will make it as far east as central Nebraska this afternoon. West of the front, in addition to windy conditions, afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s to lower 60s. The westerly winds behind the warm front, will also usher in very dry boundary layer air with afternoon RH reaching 15 to 20 percent generally south of Interstate 80. Looking at the latest NBM ensembles, there is a near 100 percent chance for wind gusts exceeding 25 MPH south of a line from Antioch to North Platte this afternoon. When the threshold is increased to 35 MPH, there is a 60 to 80% chance of exceedance south of the before mentioned line. That being said, gusts in the 25 to 40 MPH range seem probable from the eastern Panhandle, southeast into SW Nebraska and will lead to at least near critical and critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area later today. More about that in the fire section below. Later tonight, a cold front will be forced through the forecast area leading to gusty winds overnight. This will be followed by a warm front pushing into SW Nebraska Saturday afternoon. Once again, gusty winds will develop from the eastern Panhandle into SW Nebraska. Forecast min RH is forecast to be around 5 percent higher than this afternoon's forecast and with wind gusts not quite as strong, feel critical fire danger will be harder to achieve Saturday afternoon. However, near critical conditions appear likely.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A ridge develops across the western CONUS on Sunday and will see highs warm into the 60s for Sunday. A weak sw trof comes through early Monday with a low chance of precipitation and will also cool temperatures slighting with highs in the 40s and 50s. This will bring temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. At this time precipitation chances are around 25 percent or less, however probabilistic models suggest any precipitation would be very light as probability of qpf values greater than 0.05" is less than 15 percent. Temperatures warm back into the 70s with the passage of a warm front expected to move across the state. Will have to monitor for fire weather concerns as min RH is expected to drop into the teens and winds will be breezy with gusts up to 30 mph. Northwest flow continues into the later half of the week with another disturbance moving through Thursday and another chance for precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

LLWS is expected across southwest Nebraska over the next couple hours with wind shear of 40 kts out of the southeast. Rain showers and even an isolated thunderstorm may be possible through the morning hours into the afternoon, generally across the northern Sandhills. Friday evening there will be a chance for light snow across the northern Sandhills near the NE/SD border as well. Visibilities may be reduced to 2 miles or potentially less across portions of the Sandhills into north central Nebraska this morning with areas of fog possible, this will also include the KVTN terminal. Fog is expected to lift by mid morning but lower cigs will remain through the rest of the morning, briefly lift to mid level clouds, then low clouds will move back in by Friday evening. Winds will be strong this morning and afternoon out of the northwest with winds sustained at 10 to 20 kts and gust up to 30 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are likely later today across southwestern Nebraska and a red flag warning has been issued for zones 210 and 219. Wind gusts will reach 25 to 45 MPH this afternoon from the east central Panhandle, southeast into SW Nebraska. Minimum RH will reach 15 to 20 percent across far SW Nebraska with min RH generally in the 20 to 25 percent range north up to I-80. Realize min RH this afternoon is slightly above critical criteria, however wind gusts to 45 MPH are concerning. On Saturday, near critical fire weather conditions are possible once again over SW Nebraska. Minimum RH will reach 20 to 25 percent in SW Nebraska with afternoon wind gusts of 25 to 35 MPH. Near critical or critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday and Wednesday, mainly over SW Nebraska. ATTM the greatest threat for critical fire weather conditions is on Wednesday due to the combination of gusty winds and low RH.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ210-219.