textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGE

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected both Thursday and Friday due to a combination of mild, dry, and breezy conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Currently, temperatures have fallen into the middle 20s to low 30s under clear skies. Winds are light and variable across the area, with surface high pressure centered over western Nebraska.

For today, expect the surface high pressure to migrate eastwards by late morning, with northwest winds persisting across the area this afternoon in its wake. This is in response to a weak front crossing the area, bringing little impact outside of the subtle wind shift. The main concern today will again be increasing fire weather concerns, as a dry airmass remains in place across the area. As temperatures climb into the upper 50s to low 60s this afternoon, humidity values will fall into the upper teens to low 20s. Winds aloft today look much weaker than yesterday, and should keep winds less strong despite another day of ample diurnal mixing. momentum transfer suggests gusts of 20 to 25 miles per hour this afternoon, leading to near critical fire weather concerns. Confidence in both the coverage and longevity of any critical fire weather concerns remains low, though trends will need to be monitored closely. At this time, the greatest risk for an overlap of critical conditions looks to be across portions of the eastern Panhandle, though confidence is still too low to preclude any headlines. Lows fall into the low 30s into Friday morning, with very poor humidity recovery amid the persistent dry airmass. Overnight recovery of only 40 to 50 percent is expected.

Very similar conditions are expected for Friday, though with slightly warmer temperatures. Temperatures a few degrees warmer than today are expected for Friday, with highs in the middle to upper 60s across portions of southwest Nebraska. This slight boost in temperatures translates to lowered humidity values, with RH dropping to as low as 14 to 20 percent area wide. Even though widespread critical humidity is expected, winds will be slightly weaker on Friday versus today. Northwest wind gusts around 20 to 25 miles per hour are expected again, and should keep fire concern near critical. As with today, confidence remains too low in both coverage and longevity of any critical conditions to introduce any fire headlines for now. By late Friday night, a backdoor cold front begins to move south into portions of northern Nebraska, ushering in a much colder airmass as we head into the weekend. Lows Friday night range from the low 20s in northern Nebraska to the low 30s in southwest Nebraska.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

An arctic cold front will track into northern Nebraska By Saturday morning and depending on model choice this feature may have passed through the forecast area by 12z Saturday. Similar to last night's GFS, EC and NAM12 runs, there are timing differences with the progression of a decent arctic cold front across the forecast area. The GFS soln is faster with the front approaching the I-80 corridor around 12z Saturday. The NAM12 and latest EC solns hold off around 12-18 hours, forcing this feature through the forecast area Saturday evening. No surprise the latest statistical guidance from the ECS, MET and MAV is very divergent on its high temps Saturday-particularly over the southern half of the forecast area. The latest EC, MET and MAV have highs Saturday for North Platte of 61, 58 and 45 degrees respectively. The latest is slightly cooler than the MET guidance and warmer than the MAV guidance. That being said, didn't see any reason to deviate from the NBM guidance as it is a compromise between the warmer MET, EC and cooler MAV guidance. Conditions should remain dry Saturday into Saturday night as mid level, post frontal forcing for snow is north of the forecast area over South Dakota. On Sunday a robust area of mid level frontogenesis, aided by jet streak lift across the central plains north of the arctic front. Last night the latest GFS developed snow along this forcing from central Nebraska into Iowa. With tonight's GFS run, this activity has transitioned south into Kansas. Even with the deterministic GFS shifting precipitation south tonight, there is still model differences between the deterministic EC as well as the NBM tonight with respect to precipitation chances Sunday into Monday. That being said, favor the ensemble blend of the NBM for precipitation chances Sunday/Monday and later next week. This will lead to precipitation chances each day Sunday through Wednesday though the exact details remain sketchy at best. Based on the deterministic solns, Sunday night into Monday and Wednesday seem to be the best chances for precipitation. One final note, the mid range models are trending toward a more active pattern next week, with a tandem of mid level lows, Wednesday and then again Friday of next week. Current forecast trends have these two features separate from the northern stream, so the main precipitation threat will be all liquid ATTM.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Expect mainly clear skies over the next 24 hours with a few high clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Westerly winds will increase later this afternoon and may gust up to 20 KTS at both terminals. Winds will then decrease this evening. Some patchy fog will be possible at the KLBF terminal through mid morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 308 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Main fire weather concerns for the forecast period will lie this afternoon and again on Friday afternoon. For this afternoon, current forecast has min RH falling as low as 18 percent in portions of Garden and Deuel counties this afternoon. This timing coincides with possible wind gusts up to 25 MPH across western portions of Garden and Deuel counties. Given the small area of zone 204 which touches red flag conditions and the small window less than three hours, will forgo red flag warnings for zone 204 this afternoon. Will hit the near critical wording hard in the FWF and HWO for this afternoon.

On Friday, slightly drier air and warmer temperatures are forecast across the forecast area. This will lead to minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent across most of the forecast area by afternoon. Winds however will be lighter across the forecast area. Locations over western Garden and western Deuel counties have the best chances of hitting RFW criteria once again. The latest NBM ensemble has a 30-40% chance of wind gusts hitting 25 MPH Friday afternoon in Garden and Deuel counties. Immediately east of the panhandle the threat wind greater than 25 MPH falls off considerably just east of the Panhandle. That being said, decided to forgo a fire weather watch for Friday and will once again hit the near critical wording in the HWO and FWF products.

Beyond Friday night, much cooler temperatures will develop and persist into Monday and Tuesday across the forecast area. By Wednesday, low level moisture will increase across the forecast area in advance of a mid level trough of low pressure. This mid level feature will bring increased chances for precipitation across the area during the middle of next week.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.