textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across western Nebraska, tracking east across the region. While large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats, a tornado or two may be possible for a brief period.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to last through the evening across western Nebraska. As thunderstorms form this afternoon and evening, there will be a risk for dry lightning across portions of the Panhandle and western Sandhills.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a chance for some storms to be severe. The main risks are large hail and damaging winds.

- Fire weather concerns may remain through the end of the week across western Nebraska, as conditions remain dry and windy.

- Temperatures are expected to cool off this weekend, with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms across the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A very active afternoon and evening is expected across western and north central Nebraska today, with risks for severe weather and critical fire weather conditions. A strengthening surface low tracks across the Dakotas, bringing a dry line and eventually a cold front across western Nebraska. As the dry line tracks east, it will provide the initial catalyst for our active weather pattern.

First, ahead of the dry line, afternoon dewpoints continue to climb into the 60s and nearing the 70s, pooling deep moisture across the region. Strong winds aloft, as well as veering winds with height, will provide strong deep layer shear across the region this afternoon and evening allowing storms to organize. With the clear skies and daytime heating, strong instability continues to build across the region, as seen from the KLBF 18z sounding, where surface based CAPE values already exceed 3,000 J/kg. As the dry line tracks east, expecting storms to develop along the boundary, with an initial supercell threat. These initial supercells will bring a risk for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a possibility of a tornado. the threat for supercell tornadoes is relatively limited in time, as storms encounter a strengthening low level jet late this afternoon and evening. Throughout the evening, storms are expected to grow upscale into a more linear system, continuing the threat for damaging wind gusts, though large hail cannot be ruled out. With the ambient low level helicity, the threat for brief tornadoes exists along the leading edge of the line, with the greatest threat across north central Nebraska later this evening. With this very explosive environment in place, SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across most of the region, and an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) mostly along and east of Highway 83. With all severe hazards in play tonight, make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and remain weather aware!

Secondly, behind the dry line, very low humidity is expected (and with higher dewpoints to the east a very sharp gradient). As the dry line works into western Nebraska, expect humidity values to bottom out around 15 to 20 percent. Winds remain very gusty out of the south, with a slight turn to westerly behind the dry line, and northwesterly behind the cold front. Perhaps more concerningly, as storms initiate across western Nebraska, expecting little precipitation out of these cells initially, which will keep a threat for dry lightning across portions of the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. With all of these anticipated conditions, have decided to keep the Red Flag Warning in effect through this evening. Humidity recovery is expected to remain poor overnight, but much will depend on how much the dryline retreats to the west.

As the cold front pushes through the region overnight, we get a second push of drier air across the region. Temperatures are expected to remain cooler tomorrow, with highs in the 80s across the region. However, the push of dry air will bring low humidity across the region, with afternoon humidity values of 10 to 15 percent across most of the region along and west of Highway 83. To the east, humidity values around 15 to 25 percent are expected. Conditions remain very gusty out of the west and northwest behind the cold front, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph especially across the western Sandhills and eastern Panhandle. This may lead to additional near critical to critical fire weather concerns, especially across western Nebraska. Have decided against issuing a fire headline at this time, mainly to see how storms and potential rainfall play out tonight.

Another potential severe weather set up develops across the region during the evening hours on Wednesday. As the cold front remains mostly across the eastern portions of the region, the main concerns will be areas along and east of Highway 83. Given that the set up is largely driven by the location of the front, the higher concerns are for areas to the east of the area, however, should the front track slightly slower than expected, large hail and gusty winds would be possible with any storms that develop Wednesday evening. However, as mentioned, much depends on the location of where the front tracks tonight, so will continue to keep a close eye on the fine scale features. Given the slight uncertainty, make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast, as subtle shifts could change the severe risk tomorrow evening.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

By Thursday, an upper level trough is expected to track across the region. This should usher in some cooler temperatures as we head into the weekend, with highs on Thursday expected to be in the 70s. Conditions remain breezy on Thursday, with sustained northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. Humidity may be on the lower end for Thursday, generally less than 30 percent during the afternoon. However, there is some question on how much overlap of lowest humidity and gusty winds will occur. With this uncertainty still lingering, think at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may exist across portions of the eastern Panhandle, but will continue to monitor, as subtle changes in the fine scale environment over the next few days may have a large impact on this.

As for Friday, more zonal flow aloft is expected, with a push of warm air advection at 850 mb. This shot of warm air advection may bring a brief warm up of temperatures across the region, especially across southwest Nebraska. This may push highs back into the upper 80s to lower 90s for one day. As temperatures climb again on Friday, expecting another decrease in moisture across the region. Strong southerly wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible, and combined with the low humidity, may create additional fire weather concerns, especially across western Nebraska.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another upper level trough is expected to track into the region. Temperatures remain warmer on Saturday ahead of a cold frontal passage, with highs still expected to climb into the 80s. However, by Sunday and into early next week, expecting temperatures to cool off into the 70s, as upper level troughing remains. A somewhat active upper level pattern should provide support for a few disturbances to bring showers and thunderstorms across the region. Much will depend on the track of the upper level pattern, so changes may still over the next several days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected the rest of tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Otherwise mainly clear skies are expected during the day Wednesday with gusty west to northwest winds at 10-20 kts. Winds decrease and switch to the east-southeast Wednesday evening. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all of the area through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 326 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist this evening across western Nebraska, as the dry line continues to track east. Conditions behind the dry line are expected to drop around 15 to 20 percent, with gusty southerly winds becoming westerly as the dry line passes. Additionally, storms initiating along the dry line this afternoon and evening may bring a risk for dry lightning, especially across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. Humidity recovery will largely depend on the eastern extent of the dry line tonight, as areas remaining west of the dry line are expected to recover to around 50 percent, with areas east of the dry line recovering to 70 percent.

Tomorrow, as the cold front pushes the dry line further east, expect cooler temperatures and more widespread low humidity across the region. Most areas along and west of Highway 83 are expected to see afternoon humidity values around 10 to 15 percent, along with wind gusts up to 45 mph during the afternoon. This may lead to additional near critical to critical fire weather concerns, but will hold off on a headline for now to see how much rain is received with tonight's storms.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.