textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence in isolated to embedded thunderstorms Friday evening, but high confidence in a low severe potential.

- High confidence in cooler temperatures Saturday along with a light rain potential throughout the day.

- A system crosses the Plains Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread accumulating precipitation to western and north central Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A weak trough will move into western South Dakota and into northwest Nebraska tonight bringing some light precipitation to the region. Precipitation will push into northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge over the next couple of hours. With temperatures still above freezing, precip will likely start off as all rain and slowly transition over to a rain/snow mix as temperatures fall below freezing by sunrise. Some of the higher terrain of the Pine Ridge could even see all snow along with some light accumulations up to a half inch. This mixed precipitation potential will continue through the mid-morning before changing back over to all rain as temperatures climb into the 40s and 50s. Precipitation will also begin to push southeast through the day today overspreading the region by late afternoon. While much of the region has the chance to see some rainfall, the best potential to see the heaviest QPF will be mainly east of US-83 and north of Highway 2 where a quarter to half inch (0.25 - 0.50) could be observed.

There is also some concern for some convection late this afternoon and into the evening. Some modest instability will exist across portions of southwest and north central Nebraska with CAPE values up to 500 J/kg and lapse rates near 7 C/km by early evening. While not expecting severe storms, some thunderstorms could produce some brief gusty winds up to 50 mph and some small hail. The latest hi-res model runs indicate some of these stronger storms as far south as I- 80, but the current thinking is that the majority of the storms will remain across the central Sandhills and into north central Nebraska. Looking at probabilistic guidance, there is about a 25 percent for thunder across the Sandhills. The window for these stronger, more organized convection will be limited, mainly between 6pm and 10pm CT. After this time, some embedded thunderstorms will still be possible into the wee hours of Saturday morning, but should transition over to more stratiform rain showers through sunrise.

Light rain will continue into the day on Saturday, but should remain fairly scattered in nature and rainfall totals during the day on Saturday will remain less than a tenth of an inch. Cold air advection into the region combined with cloudy and rainy conditions will keep temperatures on the cooler side on Saturday. Highs will range from the mid 40s in the north to the upper 50s south of I-80. Temperatures drop into the low 30s in the Pine Ridge and into the upper 30s on Saturday night. With isolated precipitation continuing into overnight, some snow may return to the northwest region as temperatures drop to near and below freezing. The changeover time is expected to be limited before temperatures rise back above freezing Sunday morning, so therefore, little to no accumulations are expected Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

By early Sunday morning, deep southwesterly flow prevails aloft as an upper low begins to eject east into the Four Corners. Ahead of this low, ample moisture advection will push PWAT values above the 90th percentile, reaching ~0.75-1.0" by sunrise Sunday morning. As the quick moving upper low begins to eject into the Plains by Sunday afternoon, an associated surface low deepens across southeastern Colorado. This surface low moves east across Kansas by Sunday evening, keeping the area north of the surface warm front. That said, this keeps the area in a broad warm advection regime aloft. This leads to increasing isentropic ascent and this leads to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms developing by late Sunday morning. This first round of precipitation looks to be associated with an initial shortwave ahead of the parent upper low, which remains upstream over the central Rockies still Sunday morning. These showers and storms progress northeast across the area through the afternoon hours. This initial round of precipitation leads to accumulations as much as 0.25-0.75", with the greatest accumulations expected in any embedded thunderstorms. As the parent upper low begins to eject east by Sunday night, a second round of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to push across the area and persists into Monday morning. The system finally exits Monday afternoon, with lesser precipitation coverage by Monday night. In all, widespread and much needed moisture is expected across much of the area Sunday into Monday. Total accumulations in excess of 1" are expected for much of the area, with amounts locally approaching 1.50" where embedded thunderstorms occur. NBM probabilities of >1" in 48 hours peak as high as 70-80% for areas east of HWY 61 Sunday and Monday.

An active pattern looks to persist as we continue into the middle and late part of next week, as multiple shortwaves cross the area in persistent west-southwest flow aloft. Confidence wanes with respect to accumulations and timing of precipitation late week, though optimism remains that this active pattern will yield additional beneficial moisture to the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Winds will shift this afternoon to the south around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will then shift to the east northeast this evening around 10 to 20 kts. Wind gusts up to 30 kts will be possible across southwest Nebraska this evening. There will also be a brief period of LLWS this evening through midnight across southwest Nebraska, including the KLBF terminal. Rain showers will move in across the northern Sandhills this afternoon, including KVTN terminal, rain showers will continue to spread southeastward into the evening hours. There will also be a chance of an isolated thunderstorms during the evening hours, generally across portions of north central Nebraska into portions of southwest Nebraska.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.