textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to high confidence dense fog development through this morning across north central Nebraska.

- Moderate confidence heavier rainfall mainly south of I-80 through Thursday morning, although, low confidence in flooding concerns.

- Moderate confidence in colder temperatures on Thursday night, but frost potential remains low.

- Dry weather is expected Friday into early next week. Mainly below normal temepratures are expected Friday through Sunday, with moderating temperatures back to near or even slightly above normal by early next week. It will be windy at times, esepcially Friday and again Monday, when gusty south winds are forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

In the near-term, the latest observations show visibility dropping quite significantly across portions of north central Nebraska. With increased moisture across the region along with calm winds, expecting fog to continue to develop through the overnight. Visibilities down to a quarter of a mile will be possible at times especially in low lying areas and along river valleys. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions if traveling Wednesday morning before fog diminishes by late morning.

Active weather will then return to the region as remnant moisture from tropical system Polo arrives in the central Plains. Latest model runs are still inconsistent about how much rainfall actually makes it into north central. Dry air from the north will push the majority of the moisture south and east, keeping it out of our area for the most part. However, while the latest trends were backing off on heavy rainfall, QPF has pushed back north in the most recent runs. While not excessive rainfall criteria, it still highlights the uncertainty in the heaviest rainfall trends. Latest probability trends also show getting over a half inch of rain to be near 70 percent for the southern three counties (Chase, Hayes, Frontier). Therefore, confidence is moderate to high that QPF values over 1 inch is not anticipated and therefore flooding concerns are not expected at this time due to these lower QPF values. Due to this slight shift south in the heaviest rainfall, will plan to take out Custer county from the flood watch, however, due to the uncertainty in the models, will plan to hold on to remainder of the flood watch. Changes may be needed in the upcoming day as the event unfolds and confidence increases in lower QPF amounts.

Scattered showers continue through Wednesday night and into Thursday morning especially across areas south of I-80. As strong high pressure builds south back into the area, rain showers will come to an end Thursday afternoon with quieter conditions continuing through Thursday night.

For temperatures, across the south, continued rain chances, cloudy conditions, and increased cold air advection into the region will keep temperatures in the 60s through Thursday. In the north, breaks in the clouds as well as some warmer air pushing into northern Nebraska will allow for highs to rise into the low to mid 70s today before dropping into the 60s on Thursday. Low temperatures overnight will drop from the upper 40s to mid 50s tonight to the mid 40s on Thursday night. This will be the coolest night of the next week and latest probabilities suggest lows could drop into the upper 30s to low 40s across some locations. While not expecting any frost potential, those with sensitive plants or outside concerns may want to take some precautions.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 204 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Upper-level ridging will build across the desert southwest through the upcoming weekend into early next week. A dry northwest flow aloft will become established atop our area on the northeast periphery of the high. At the surface, Canadian high pressure will be located across the central and northern plains Friday. This will usher in a cooler, drier Canadian airmass. Temperatures Friday will average below normal with highs in the 60s. As the high shifts east of the area Saturday, gusty south winds develop ahead of a weak approaching shortwave and associated surface low across western South Dakota. As the surface low shifts east across South Dakota Saturday afternoon and evening, a cold front will switch winds to the north. Saturday's highs will moderate into the upper 60s to mid 70s, but then cool back into the 60s Sunday behind the front. No precipitation is expected with the weak shortwave and cold front, as the atmosphere will be quite dry.

Early next week, gusty south winds return Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will moderate back to near or even slightly above normal By Tuesday, when highs could top 80 degrees across western into southwest Nebraska.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 648 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas of MVFR and localized IFR are expected due to ceilings and fog along and southeast of a line from ONL to TIF to OGA line. These should improve by mid-morning. Otherwise, an area of light to moderate rain will spread into southwest Nebraska late this morning into this afternoon. Local MVFR could occur with this along and mainly south of I-80 this afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ007-010- 026>029-037-038-059-070-071. Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NEZ059-069>071.