textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible early this morning across portions of northern into central Nebraska. A few of these storms could be severe,with a threat for large hail and damaging winds.

- Much warmer temperatures return to areas along and west of Highway 83 on Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100.

- Rain/thunderstorm increase Wednesday through the end of next week.

- High temperatures start out very warm the first of next week, but then cool considerably by the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms through early this afternoon across portions of the Sandhills and central Nebraska. Currently, a 30kt southeasterly low level jet has developed across the Panhandle. In association with this, a plume of MUCAPE as high as 2500-3000J/kg is overspreading western and southwest Nebraska. This elevated instability is also coincident with strong deep layer shear, with effective shear magnitude as high as 45-55kts. By sunrise this morning, the low level jet is expected to gradually translate eastwards, with the core of this jet centering over the Sandhills with time. This is expected to promote at least scattered thunderstorm development, within the overlap of ample MUCAPE/shear across northern Nebraska. Guidance remains in good agreement with respect to convective initiation, though solutions vary widely on coverage and eventual strength of storms. The background environment does suggest at least some threat for large hail, especially with newer updrafts as they remain at least semi-discrete. The majority of guidance then suggests some semblance of upscale growth with time, and this would eventually limit the large hail threat. This could bring some threat for damaging winds, though confidence in this remains low and will be tied to just how stable the boundary layer becomes. Convection is expected to quickly exit off to the east of the area by early afternoon, with confidence then waning with respect to temperatures and any additional thunderstorms this evening. Residual outflow and convective debris will likely have big impacts on high temperatures today, especially east of HWY 83. Trends will continue to be monitored, though downwards adjustments may be needed should clouds linger longer than currently expected. Residual subsidence also casts significant doubt on additional thunderstorms this evening, though widely scattered high based storms are possible for far southwest Nebraska. Recent high-res guidance suggests this activity will largely stay off to the southwest of the area, and the current forecast is dry this evening to reflect this. Regardless, warmer temperatures can be expected west of HWY 83, where morning storms should have little to no impact, where highs will climb into the upper 90s. Humidity will not be high enough to increase heat indicies to heat advisory levels, though a hot day can be expected nonetheless.

Another warm day is expected for Sunday, with H7-H85 temperatures again hovering near the 90th percentile climo across western Nebraska. This translates to highs again in the upper 90s to near 100F, primarily for areas along and west of HWY 83. As with today, expecting heat indices to remain in the middle 90s with lesser humidity in place across western Nebraska. This could also bring some threat for fire weather concerns amid the lowered humidity, along with breezy east-southeast winds. Warm air aloft looks to keep convection again at a minimum for much of the day, though some guidance does hint at southeastward moving convection off the Black Hills by early evening. Confidence in this is not overly high, though some threat for damaging winds could develop for areas near the HWY 20 corridor Sunday evening should any convection sustain off the Black Hills.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the Four Corners region the through the first of next week. This will allow for some monsoonal-subtropical moisture to rotate north and then eastward across our area around the ridge periphery. Monday into Tuesday should remain mostly dry and continued quite warm, with highs well in the 90s at most locations.

The upper level ridging flattens some with the center translating into the southern plains my the middle and latter parts of next week. Ensemble guidance suggests somewhat stronger winds aloft will develop southward from the northern plains as the ridge flattens. At the same time, mean PWAT values will be on the increase as the monsoonal moisture increases. The ENS suggests values nearing 1.5" by Wednesday night into Thursday. Several embedded shortwaves are expected within the westerly flow aloft on the northern periphery of the southern plains upper high. The result will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and beyond.

A considerable cool down also looks to be on tap by the end of next week. A Canadian airmass settles southward into the northern and central plains brining relief from the hot temperatures. In fact, current forecast guidance suggests highs may struggle out of the upper 60s by Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A cluster of thunderstorms will track to the southeast though north central and into central Nebraska through the morning. Variable and potentially gusty winds will occur in and near the storms. In addition, an area of stratus clouds and MVFR and local IFR will persist to the south and west of the storms across western and southwest Nebraska. All of this should end by late morning, with VFR conditions all areas by midday. Southerly surface winds of 10-15 kts can be expected this afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.