textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical and possibly critical fire weather conditions remain possible Monday through Thursday across the area. At this time, Wednesday has the best chance of hitting critical fire weather conditions across the area.

- Temperatures will trend upward beginning Monday with very warm temperatures expected Wednesday.

- A cold front Wednesday night will bring back more seasonal temperatures to the region Thursday, Friday and Saturday with warmer readings returning Sunday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

H5 analysis from this morning largely had a zonal pattern across the CONUS. An elongated area of high pressure extended from western Texas, west southwest into central portions of Baja California. Across the northern CONUS into southern Canada, numerous embedded shortwaves were noted. The first was over British Columbia in to southern Alberta. A second was located over the northern Great Lakes and a third was located over eastern South Dakota into NW Iowa and SW Minnesota. Mid and high level cloudiness, in association with the SD/IA/MN shortwave extended from western Iowa and Minnesota, east into the southern Great Lakes. At the surface this afternoon: A cold front had passed through the forecast area overnight and was not situated across far southern Oklahoma.Winds were gusty from the north overnight and this morning and have slowly begun to diminish this afternoon. Skies were generally mostly clear across the southern half of Nebraska this afternoon. Across the northern half of the state, skies were partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures as of 3 PM CT, ranged from 45 degrees at O'Neill, to 59 degrees at Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Surface high pressure will track south-southeast from eastern South Dakota into western Iowa overnight. Winds will be light and variable this evening, shifting to the south overnight across the western half of the forecast area. Wind speeds with the wind shift will remain fairly light into the overnight, generally 10 MPH or less. Overnight, an approaching jet streak and weak mid level forcing will approach from the central Rockies. This feature will spread some mid and high level cloudiness across the area overnight. There is a small signal for light precipitation in the latest NAM12, and 12z HRRR for late tonight through the first half of Monday. The inherited forecast continues to mention slight chances for precipitation along a corridor from southwestern into central and northeastern areas late tonight into early afternoon Monday. Given indications of such from the deterministic NAM12 and 12z HRRR, coupled with support from the NBM ensembles, which indicate 20 to 30% chances of measurable precipitation, decided to keep the mention of pops, but limit to a slight chance mention. In addition to the threat for light precipitation, gusty southerly winds will develop behind the exiting high Monday afternoon. The latest Bufkit soundings indicate decent mixing with mixed layer winds in the 30 to 40 MPH range Monday afternoon. With forecast min RH reaching 20 to 25 percent west of highway 183 Monday afternoon, was concerned about critical fire weather conditions. One aspect we have working against this notion Monday is expected mid and high level cloudiness across the area. The models this morning indicate a plume of mid and upper level moisture and cloudiness working into the central Rockies the central plains overnight. Aided by a upper level jet streak, this moisture will overspread the forecast area Monday leading to mostly cloudy skies across the area. Additionally, with a threat for light precipitation Monday morning into early afternoon, along with the expected cloud cover, decided to forgo a red flag warning for tomorrow. Will continue to hit the near critical threat hard in the HWO and partner DSS packets. Winds will diminish quickly toward sunset Monday and cloud cover will transition east of the area overnight. Lows will be in the lower to middle 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

High pressure will become established over Arizona and New Mexico Tuesday, building a broad ridge of high pressure north into Montana. Warm air in association with this ridge will begin to push into the forecast area on Tuesday. Highs will reach into the 70s with lower 80s in SW Nebraska. Minimum RH Tuesday afternoon will reach 15 to 25 percent across the area nearing critical fire weather thresholds. Winds however are expected to be much lighter compared to Monday. An inverted trough of low pressure will be draped across the area Tuesday, limiting wind gusts to the 10 to 20 MPH range. Will continue the near critical verbiage to partners given the low MIN RH forecast. By Wednesday, ridging across the west will begin to break down, forcing even warmer air into the region. The latest NBM has highs reaching the upper 80s across the eastern Panhandle and SW Nebraska which is roughly in the 25th to 50th percentile of the NBM ensemble forecast. ATTM, believe these highs will gradually trend upward some as we near Wednesday as this is a similar setup which led to the record temps yesterday. Based on forecast H85 temps in the latest NAM and GFS solns which are a tad cooler than yesterday afternoon's H85 temps, believe we may approach the 90 degree mark on Wednesday but stay below the middle 90s we saw yesterday. That being said, widespread minimum RH of 12 to 20 percent looks probable Wednesday afternoon. Looking at Bufkit forecast soundings, we should be mixed up to the H700 to H600 layer Wednesday afternoon. This yields gust potential in the 25 to possibly 35 MPH range for a period Wednesday afternoon which, combined with forecast min RH, will yield critical fire weather conditions. A shortwave trough, traversing the northern tier of states, will flatten the ridging out west, forcing a cold front through the forecast area Wednesday night. Behind the front Thursday, highs will reach into the 60s Thursday, followed by 50s for Friday. Ridging will become re- established Friday across the western CONUS. This feature will then transition east next weekend with temperatures rising into the 60s Saturday, then 70s on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the next 24 hours. High cloudiness will increase tonight, with mid cloudiness Monday morning with ceilings as low as BKN120. Southerly winds will increase by 15Z, with gusts to 25KT, with gusts to 30KT 18Z through the remainder of the TAF period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.