textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase for Wednesday, with spotty activity during the day increasing to more expansive rain with a few embedded thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Cooler daytime highs will persist Wednesday and Thursday before a cold front moves through Thursday night and introduces the potential for a frost and/or freeze Friday morning.

- Moderate to high confidence in below normal temperatures continuing into the first part of the weekend.

- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and milder conditions by the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Early this morning, high pressure continues to sink south across the Northern Plains. Centering over the North Dakota/South Dakota border, winds will veer from northerly to easterly. Resulting easterly upslope flow will allow persistent cloud cover to linger across the High Plains, holding temperatures to mild levels for many as reading struggle to fall out of the middle 40s. Meanwhile, beneath mostly clear skies, cooler temperatures should materialize with lows in the upper 30s. Should high pressure manage to nose in further from the north, these values may fall further and promote some frost concern but at this time this appears unlikely.

Today/Tonight...upper-level low situated over the Four Corners region will slowly lift northeast across the Central Rockies. This feature should eject onto the Plains as a positive tilt trough with an h5 low filling in with time. Lee troughing will deepen through the day though with decreasing local influence from departing high pressure, winds are not anticipated to ramp up too much. Persistent easterly moist flow, however, will support increasing rain and even low-end thunderstorm chances later in the day beneath cloudy skies. The result will be a near persistence forecast with highs holding in the 50s, or roughly 5-15F below normal for middle October climatology. Precipitation should arrive in a few waves: the first being early this morning via steady upslope moist flow along with a surge of richer moisture behind the departing high pressure. Consecutive HRRR runs shows isolated to widely scattered showers lifting north and east through late morning/early afternoon along a subtle converging line. While this should limit daytime activity to just a few hours, greater synoptic lift will arrive in the evening with strong height falls and DCVA which will lead to broader rain potential Wednesday night into Thursday. To highlight this, PoPs were held into the Chance category (25-55%) until the evening when probabilities ramp up to 75-95% for much of western Nebraska. By Wednesday night, the parent trough will have crossed the Front Range and should be located invof KCYS/KSNY. The low temperature forecast largely leans on the model blend which produces upper 30s in the western Sandhills to middle 40s further east. With active precipitation in the area, the potential exists to see a few wet snowflakes given those temperatures. For now, any threat of snow appears to remain west of the local area and closer to the I-25 corridor. Marginal temperatures now with potential for these to rise with subsequent forecasts should keep any wintry threat out of the area.

Thursday/Thursday Night...upper-level low will continue to lift north and east, weakening as it does as it interacts with a stronger northern stream trough diving east southeast out of the Canadian Prairies. While a surface low never truly takes shape, the upper low will draw in drier air on the southern periphery with greatest mesoscale lift via fgen/convergence in the northwest quadrant. This could take a bite out of precipitation amounts, particularly for areas south of Highway 2 into southwest Nebraska. The NAM12 output shows this potential well with largely dry conditions for much of the day save for a brief window in the afternoon from a weakening band arriving from the north. NBM probabilities for > 0.25" rainfall for 12z through 00z Fri (7am to 7pm CDT Thursday) peak around 60% across the Sandhills into north central Nebraska but drop to < 40% south of Highway 23. This suggests fairly reasonable variability in where this drier air will set up so it remains to be seen how far north this will hinder rainfall. Stronger high pressure will extend south along the lee of the Northern Rockies. As a surface cool front pushes through, winds should increase out of the northwest considerably and lead to a fairly windy day. Even more pessimistic output from lower NBM percentile levels show expansive 25 to 30 mph gusts. Probabilistic data supports strong winds with 60%+ probabilities for exceeding 34 knot (39 mph) gusts sometime during the day. BUFKIT soundings show a fairly low inversion, roughly 1km AGL, with peak wind magnitudes beneath this feature only around 40 knots. This supports the idea that High Wind Warning criteria (50 knot) is not expected to be met. Daytime highs should reach the 50s across the area with precipitation potential tapering off through the late day. Behind the departing front with strong Canadian high pressure approaching, will need to watch for the potential for frost/freeze conditions Thursday night. NBM paints 80%+ probabilities for lows falling below 36F for the central Sandhills west into the Panhandle. Decreasing this to 32F or colder keeps 60%+ for mainly Sheridan County west into the Panhandle. Even with lingering breezy winds, statistical guidance remains quite bullish with widespread low to middle 20s for lows increasing to middle 30s further east towards Central Nebraska. The low temperature forecast was nudged down slightly using a light MET/METBC blend but this was largely done just to increase the footprint of frost in the grids with little other changes to the going forecast/messaging. Being a few days out still, will await greater confidence before considering any Frost/Freeze headlines.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 328 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Beyond Thursday night, strong upper level ridging will return to the western US allowing for surface high pressure to build south out of Canada bringing a return to dry conditions through the weekend. With this high, cold air advection will push in a much colder airmass into the northern and central Great Plains. With 850 mb temperatures in the -1 to 4 C range on Friday, surface highs will struggle to rise out of the 50s. Highs will gradually moderate through the weekend, rising back into the 70s by Sunday. This milder, near normal air will persist through the beginning of next week.

For low temperatures, continued CAA into the region will result in widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s continue into Friday night/Saturday morning. Some locations across southwest Nebraska may even drop into the upper 20s. Given this colder airmass, frost and freeze potential is likely again on Saturday morning. Similar to Friday morning, headlines are not in place, but if this colder temperature trend remains consistent and confidence increases, they will likely be necessary. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to date information regarding frost/freeze potential. Similar to high temperatures, overnight lows will also begin to rise beyond Saturday returning to the 40s through the beginning of next week. Therefore, beyond Friday and Saturday morning, frost/freeze is not expected across our forecast area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Increasing clouds are expected through the overnight hours becoming overcast by mid-morning across southwest Nebraska. Ceilings will drop to 2000 feet or less by late afternoon. Further to the north, cloudy to mostly cloudy skies will persist through the morning however ceilings are not expected to drop below 2000 feet until early evening. Rain showers will be possible during the evening hours across all of north central Nebraska continuing through tonight with visibility restrictions down to at least 2 miles. Some embedded thunderstorms are also possible tonight, but confidence remains too low in development to add to the prevailing forecast at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.