textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather concerns increase across far western Nebraska into the Panhandle today. This is due to a combination of gusty south winds and low humidity.

- Additional fire weather concerns across western Nebraska Monday. A wind shift will occur with continued low humidity values.

- A cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area Monday night with a continued threat for precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday.

_ Much cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s. A gradual warmup will push highs into the 80s for Thursday with 90s returning for Friday into Saturday.

- The threat for organized measurable precipitation beyond Wednesday is low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Surface high translates eastward toward the Mississippi Valley region today. Meanwhile, surface low pressure deepens across Wyoming ahead of a long wave trough nosing into the northern Rockies from Canada. This sets the stage for gusty south winds to develop, especially along and west of Highway 183. These winds will combine with humidity values of 15-20% along and to the west of Highway 61. Even with the recent rainfall, fuels are there due to the overall drought conditions. Will continue the Red Flag Warning for portions of western and far southwest Nebraska through 10pm MDT. As a southerly low-level jet increases tonight, winds will stay up. In fact, gusts greater than 35 mph are expected through the night in the higher elevations of the western Sandhills. Humidity recovery will also be poor, generally below 60% for areas west of Highway 183.

A classic upper level ridge breakdown occurs Monday as more fire weather headlines may be needed across western Nebraska. Gusty south winds will persist through the morning, then by afternoon a cold front will begin to move southeastward across northwest Nebraska. This will create a wind shift to the north. Again, very low relative humidity is expected, and the wind shift is a concern. Also of concern would be if any isolated high based thunderstorm activity can develop along the cold front. This could pose a threat for an isolated dry lightning strike.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 318 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A cold front will cross the forecast area Monday evening bringing an increased threat for thunderstorms across the area. INVOF the front, storm coverage will be initially isolated with more scattered coverage into the evening and nighttime hours. Warm mid level temperatures and decent capping will limit thunderstorm coverage initially. By evening, cooler mid level temperatures will arrive as a mid level shortwave approaches northern Nebraska. Post frontal precipitation seems like a better bet ATTM with the arrival of this mid level support. With this in mind, have trended the highest pops into Monday evening and overnight hours. As for the severe threat Monday evening. There is a narrow corridor of 1500 to 2500 J/KG CAPE late Monday afternoon into mid evening Monday. Given the degree of capping present across the area, the severe threat appears highly conditional ATTM. If storms do initiate in the late afternoon/early evening time frame, the main threat will be hail and damaging winds. Overnight, the front will drop south of the area, stalling over Kansas. Easterly and northeasterly winds, along with expected cloud cover, will limit highs to the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. North of the front, a mid level trough will approach and track across the northern plains Tuesday night, leading to increased mid level frontogenesis across the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area. With support from the deterministic EC soln the latest NBM has a broad swath of 60 to 70% chances of QPF>0.10 inches Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the southern half of the forecast area. This is also supported to a lesser degree with the latest NAM12 and GFS solns tonight. That being said, low end likely pops in the southern half of the FA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning seems reasonable ATTM. Beyond Wednesday, mid level hts will begin to slowly increase as ridging builds from the SW CONUS northeast onto the central and southern plains. Precipitation chances will be spotty at best and the threat for organized measurable precipitation appears low. Highs will rebound into the 80s for Thursday with readings reaching into the 90s for Friday and Saturday. Even warmer temperatures may be on the horizon the following week as the latest deterministic GFS is indicating H85 temps approaching the mid 30sC across the area Sunday into Monday (Aug 9-10).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Southerly winds will increase this morning reaching gusts up to 25 to 30 KTS this afternoon. Gusty winds will continue this evening, gradually diminishing overnight to 10 to 20 KTS. Low level wind shear is possible at both terminals after 06z Monday and may reach 45 KTS from the south at 2000 FT AGL.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204-210.