textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas along and north of I-80 today.

- A warm front develops south of the area Tuesday. Increasing chances for rain will develop to the north of this front Tuesday night.

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon across the area.

- A strong cold front will bring much cooler temperatures and a threat for precipitation Thursday night into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for areas along and north of I-80 for this afternoon. Very warm temperatures are expected again today, with highs ranging from the mid 70s across the Panhandle to the lower and mid 80s for areas along and east of Highway 83. Regional sounding profiles indicate a very deep mixed layer once again this afternoon. Bufkit sounding profile data from O'Neill and Broken Bow indicate deep mixing, and while winds don't look quite as strong as yesterday, frequent westerly gusts around 25 mph certainly are possible from early this afternoon until around 6 PM CDT or so. After the grass fires yesterday fuels are obviously still ready to burn. Decided with such low relative humidity (Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 209) needs to be added the Red Flag Warning due to the expected/potential winds. The stronger winds look to remain in the western part of 209, mainly west of Highway 281. Otherwise, the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, as well as the Panhandle should see frequent gusts over 35 mph and potentially in the 40-45 mph range. All of this will combine with very low humidity (as low as 10% across portions of the Sandhills) and 11-18% elsewhere. Did not include areas south of I-80 in today's warning. Winds do increase and could see a few gusts around 25 mph for a brief time around midday. Winds actually decrease slightly this afternoon when humidity is lowest, so left these areas out. If winds end up stronger, then it is possible they may be have to be added. Winds quickly decrease this evening all areas and shift to more northerly by late this evening. Have trimmed an hour off of the warning and will have it expiring at 9 PM CDT due to the rapid decrease in winds. Overall, humidity recovery is poor most areas tonight. The exception will be portions of north central Nebraska around O'Neill where decent recovery between 75-80% is expected. Humidity will remain low Tuesday, but winds look lighter and east to northeast in direction with the area north of a developing warm front.

As the warm front develops along the Nebraska/Kansas border through the day Tuesday...surface low pressure will deepen across western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Some pooling of moisture both at the surface and aloft will occur to the north of the boundary by late Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. A decent shortwave will help to induce large scale lift Tuesday night, with an area of strong mid-level FGEN developing from southwest to northeast across the area north of the frontal boundary. As the lift increases, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely develop. MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 J/KG across the southern Sandhills and into southwest Nebraska. Shear looks strong as well, and could see an isolated stronger storm or two that produce small hail. Probabilities of receiving 1/4" or more of rainfall are decent for areas along and north of I-80 into the Sandhills Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A frontal boundary will remain stalled out to the southeast of the forecast area Wednesday. At the same time, a mid level disturbance will lift from Colorado into Nebraska, north of the frontal boundary, leading to an increased threat for precipitation. The current NBM forecast has pops on the order of 30 to 60 percent across the area. This seems to agree well with the NBM ensemble probabilities of > 0.01" of precipitation. ATTM, there is a decent threat for measurable precipitation with this system, however, when QPF thresholds are increased to 0.10" probabilities of exceedance fall off considerably. So with this mid week system the threat for a wetting rain looks meager at best. As for highs Wednesday, readings will be in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures will warm back into the 80s behind the exiting shortwave on Thursday and ahead of an approaching cold front. Widespread minimum RH of 10 to 20 percent looks likely Thursday. With a decent threat for gusty winds ahead of an approaching cold front, near-critical or critical fire weather conditions looks probable Thursday afternoon. A strong cold front will track through the forecast area Thursday night. Behind the front, the threat for precipitation will increase over northwestern Nebraska Thursday night, spreading east into the remainder of the forecast area Friday and Saturday. Currently, the mid range model solutions have divergent solutions with respect to the mid level forcing behind the exiting front. The GFS soln lifts a closed H5 low across North Dakota. With this scenario, the main area of post frontal precipitation will be from North Dakota into Minnesota. The EC soln has a strong shortwave tracking across Nebraska Friday into Friday night with the EC soln being more favorable for precipitation. Why is the mid level forcing so important here. Temperatures behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning appear cold enough to support snow. If the EC verifies, we could see some light accumulations of snow. If the GFS verifies, abundant mid level dry air with severely limit QPF and snow potential. Looking at the EC ensembles with this weekend system, less than half of the members have measurable pcpn for North Platte. The latest NBM ensemble QPF forecast has ~50% chance for measurable pcpn Friday night/Saturday. Again when this threshold is raised to 0.1" percentages drop considerably. Current pops are in the 30 to 50 percent range and this seems like a good place to start. Temperatures will be chilly Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 50s. Widespread sub freezing temperatures appear likely Friday night and Saturday night with readings in the 20s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Scattered high cloudiness is expected over the next 24 hours across western and north central Nebraska. Look for winds to shift to the west midday and become gusty. Gusts up to 30 KTS are possible at the KVTN terminal with gusts up to 21KTS possible at the KLBF terminal. Winds will gradually diminish after sunset to less than 10 KTS.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209.