textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place for western Nebraska each afternoon/evening Saturday and Sunday with damaging winds and isolated severe hail the main concerns.

- Precipitation chances continue Monday and Tuesday. While the severe risk is uncertain at this time, there is some potential for stronger storms both evenings.

- Temperatures are expected to remain above average through the end of the week. Today is expected to be the hottest day, with highs potentially breaking 100 across southwest Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Early this morning, weakening thunderstorms continue to drift into central Nebraska. This is residual activity from a stalled trough across western Nebraska and has a history of producing strong wind gusts in and around Kingsley Dam late Friday night. An increasing low-level jet will help maintain activity as it continues its easterly trek but strong inhibition, forcing for ascent focused well north, and only marginal elevated instability should keep any threat for severe activity out of the area.

Saturday/Saturday Night...modest low pressure will settle east and drag a surface trough east through western Nebraska. This wind shift line should stall towards mid-day across mainly central Nebraska with west-northwesterly flow expected in its wake. Wrap around low- level moisture from the north will settle into north central Nebraska and boost surface dew points likely into the middle to upper 60s. The broad downsloping flow will favor warming and drying as low amplitude ridging passes by just to the south. The result will be warming temperatures with daytime highs pushing the 90s for all and low triple digits for portions of southwest Nebraska. Modest height falls will overspread the area later in the day as deeper troughing moves through the Pacific Northwest. A lead shortwave will approach late in the day and bring increasing rain and thunderstorm chances with it. Instability will be modest at best but sufficient deep layer shear should support at least some storm organization and a strong to severe threat. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) generally west of a North Platte to Ainsworth line. Main concerns will primarily be damaging wind gusts as storm mergers should lead to upscale growth and a decreasing hail threat with time. PoPs largely relied on HREF output with some nudges to NAM12 solution. This paints upwards of "Chance" categories (< 40%) with the highest values over the western Sandhills and generally mid-afternoon through the early morning on Sunday. Lingering precipitation and cloud debris with an increasing low- level jet in our east will keep things mild with lows near 70F but middle to lower 60s further west.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The upper level high shifts over the Southern Plains on Sunday, bringing slight ridging across the Central Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level low tracks across southern British Columbia and southern Alberta, tracking a trough across the Intermountain West. As this pattern evolves, expecting a jet max to develop across portions of Wyoming and possibly into South Dakota. As this occurs, do expect some stronger winds aloft across most of western and north central Nebraska, with forecast winds speeds at 500 mb around 40 to 45 knots, bringing some deep layer shear across the region. However, the overnight convection from Saturday night and subsequent passing of the surface boundary may limit the return of moisture across portions of western Nebraska, specifically areas west of Highway 83, where dewpoints may only rebound into the upper 50s. Highs are still expected to remain quite warm on Sunday as well, with highs climbing into the 90s across most of the region. Unsurprisingly, this leads to a fairly dry lower layer of the environment, and forecast soundings are strongly indicating this to continue through the afternoon and evening. With this in mind, if showers and thunderstorms are able to develop late Sunday afternoon into the evening, expecting these will mostly be high based storms, offering little, if any rain. Also, given relatively sparse amounts of instability aloft, not expecting a strong severe threat. However, given the strong mixing and potential for inverted-V soundings to become a reality, still cannot completely rule out an isolated threat for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms. For this reason, the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for most of the region on Sunday, with the main threat remaining damaging wind gust potential.

Monday and Tuesday, the upper level low continues tracking east from southern Alberta to the Great Lakes region. As this low tracks east, a few shortwaves are expected to track across the region, bringing potential for showers and thunderstorms both days. Precipitation chances appear more likely on Monday evening into the nighttime hours, as the upper shortwave tracks a jet max across the region. At this time, the severe weather risk appears to be less certain. However, guidance does continue to suggest areas of higher instability and deep layer shear across the region, which may still support strong to severe thunderstorms. There is also strong deep layer shear expected on Tuesday, however the available instability is a bit more in question. While the exact severe risk is still a little uncertain, will continue to keep an eye on forecast trends for early next week, as precipitation looks likely at least through Monday night, with another round possible into Tuesday night.

Wednesday onward, upper level ridging amplifies a bit more, favoring a warmer, drier forecast through the end of the week. As of now, precipitation chances remain generally less than 20 percent each evening. Ensemble guidance paints a similar picture, with chances of measureable precipitation around 20 to 30 percent, with chances of one tenth of an inch or greater generally less than 20 percent. So, even if there is some potential for precipitation late week, expecting it would be very light. The upper level ridging will also support warmer than average temperatures through the end of the week. In fact, current highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. For reference, typical highs to start off September are right around 85 degrees across the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska throughout most of the effective TAF period. A final push of thunderstorms is currently tracking across southwest Nebraska, bringing localized impacts and gusty, erratic winds. This complex is expected to exit the area by 08z at the latest. Overnight, a strong low level jet brings LLWS concerns across most of the region, with a subtle eastward track through the night. However, most areas east of KLBF to KANW may expect LLWS through 12z. Through the afternoon, light west to southwest winds are expected. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop in the late afternoon to evening, with low confidence in direct impacts to KLBF or KVTN at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.