textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures gradually warm through mid week, bringing at least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns each day, with greatest concerns on Monday and Wednesday.

- A cold front late week will bring slightly cooler temperatures to close out the week. However, highs behind the front will remain near to slightly above seasonal average.

- A mostly dry forecast this week. Although there is a slight chance for showers Monday morning and Thursday night, little to no precipitation is expected to reach the ground.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Surface low pressure was currently located over central Nebraska. Strong pressure rises behind a cold front continues to have strong northerly winds and gusts to 50 mph across the northwest Sandhills. These strong wind gusts to 50 mph will move into southwest Nebraska, including the I80 corridor through 09Z. Some blowing dust and reduced visibility can also be expected. Temperatures behind the front are much cooler in the low to mid 40s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Today, cloudy skies and stratus will linger over north central Nebraska in the morning, scattering out by early afternoon. Gusty, northerly winds to 30 mph will continue through the morning hours before cold air advection ends by early afternoon. Despite the significant cooldown from Saturday, high temperatures Sunday will still be from 2 to 8 degrees above normal, ranging for near 52 northeast to 63 far southwest.

Tonight, surface winds will become southeast to south with skies becoming mostly cloudy. A weak disturbance will move along the Colorado/Nebraska border will bring just a slight chance for light rain across far southwest Nebraska, south of I80. Lows will range from the upper 30s west to low 30s east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Upper level ridging returns across the region on Monday, bringing warmer temperatures across western Nebraska. Expecting a range of temperatures from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Panhandle to the mid 50s across north central Nebraska. A surface low pushes a boundary across the region, bringing gusty southerly winds across the region Monday afternoon, with peak gusts around 40 mph across portions of the western Sandhills. Again, expect to see a very dry lower layer of the atmosphere, bringing afternoon relative humidity down to less than 25 percent across the entire region. Given yet another day of low relative humidity and gusty winds, expecting at least near critical fire weather conditions across the region Monday afternoon. Will be continuing to monitor forecast trends to determine whether additional fire weather headlines will be needed.

Something worth keeping an eye on Monday morning into the afternoon as the boundary pushes across the region. With a weak surface disturbance and limited moisture aloft, model guidance begins to suggest a slight possibility for light, brief rain showers. Granted, this is very light precipitation, generally less than one tenth of an inch. For what it's worth, forecast soundings suggest fairly dry low layers in the atmosphere, which may favor any precipitation chances to result in virga. Even some of the more "aggressive" guidance, such as the 00z HRRR shows a dry layer, so believe precipitation amounts in these solutions are a bit overdone. Will keep the mention in the forecast, but not expecting anything to materialize from this.

A steady climb in temperatures is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs climbing into the 70s and 80s on Tuesday, and widespread highs in the 80s again on Wednesday. Again, seeing a similar set up to yesterday for Wednesday, with a strong upper level ridge and anomalously warm 850mb temperatures. However, noticing slightly cooler 850mb temperatures with the latest guidance, which may limit high temperatures a bit. Still, forecast highs from the deterministic NBM remain on the cooler side of guidance, so would not be surprised if some locations break into the lower 90s again. With the warming temperatures, again expecting low relative humidity values both afternoons. With this in play, expecting at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions both Tuesday and Wednesday. However, slightly stronger wind gusts are expected on Wednesday, so confidence is higher in near critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday afternoon.

A cold front tracks through the region Wednesday night, bringing slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday. However, highs on Thursday still remain around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal average. Gusty northerly winds persist behind the front across the entire region Thursday afternoon, and minimum humidity values drop to around 25 percent. With this set up in play, expecting additional potential for at least elevated fire weather conditions. Will also be keeping an eye on potential for some wrap around precipitation Thursday night, but again, ensemble forecast guidance remains fairly pessimistic on the area seeing any precipitation. While there is a generally 10 to 20 percent chance of seeing one hundredth of an inch or greater across portions of the region, chances of seeing one tenth of an inch remain zero. Closing out the week, temperatures remain right around to slightly above seasonal, with highs in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are observed this morning across northern Nebraska, as a low stratus deck tracks across the region behind a cold front. By late morning, expecting stratus will mostly have dissipated, bringing VFR conditions throughout the rest of the TAF period. Winds remain gusty out of the north this morning, with gusts slowly diminishing through the afternoon. This evening, expected a steady shift in winds from northerly to easterly, with winds settling more southerly around midnight. While more cloud cover tracks in overnight, ceilings are expected to remain VFR at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.