textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief period of dry weather is expected through Monday evening. Breezy conditions are expected across the western Sandhills, but otherwise expecting around normal temperatures and quiet weather.

- Warmer temperatures and recurring rain chances appear likely for much of the extended forecast though confidence in wetting rains remains limited.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Upper level ridging builds across the region today, ushering in a period of quieter weather through Monday evening. Southerly flow tracks into the region, supporting advection of warmer temperatures, but with weaker flow, this is expected to bring mostly seasonal temperatures to slightly above seasonal temperatures over the next few days. For reference, typical highs for July 5th and 6th are around 89 degrees across western and north central Nebraska. Currently, forecast highs are in the low to mid 90s, which is right around the 75th percentile compared to local climate. All this to say, while temperatures may be slightly warmer than typical, it is certainly nothing out of the ordinary for early July. In addition to the seasonal to slightly above seasonal temperatures, may also see some breezy conditions across the western Sandhills the next few days. Overall, not expecting anything too out of the ordinary for western Nebraska, with sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph, gusting 25 to 30 mph out of the south the next couple of days. While these aren't the strongest of wind gusts, they could have impacts on those with outdoor recreation plans, so at least something to keep in mind over the next few days.

By Monday evening, an upper level shortwave is expected to track through the larger flow pattern, which may push a weak surface system across the Dakotas. As this system tracks east, it may generate a few showers and thunderstorms, mostly across South Dakota, but a few showers and storms could clip portions of northwest and northern Nebraska. Very little upper level support is expected across the region, with better shear remaining well to the north across North Dakota. Forecast soundings across northwest Nebraska Monday evening indicate potential for around 10 to 20 knots deep layer shear, and very modest elevated CAPE. Given this meager set up, though showers and thunderstorms are possible, not expecting any severe weather from these potential storms at this time. As showers quickly clip out of the region overnight, expect mostly cloudy skies in their wake, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 212 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Tuesday...Upper ridge remains situated over the Four Corners region through mid-week. A subtle shortwave will cross the central and northern Plains during the day and should lead to the greatest rainfall potential of the forecast period. A warm front will lift north and stall near the NE/SD border with a crashing cold front later that evening. Moderate to strong instability will be possible but shear appears to be limited. That said, can't rule out some severe potential so will need to monitor this setup in the coming days. NBM highlights better rain chances north across the Dakotas (50-70% of > 0.25").

Wednesday and beyond...flow aloft flattens as ridge retrogrades and a upper-level jet crosses the Pacific Northwest. This largely zonal flow will allow near to slightly above normal temperatures to continue through late week. Another more pronounced shortwave will eject out of the Central Rockies sometime around Thursday and should lead to greater rainfall chances Thursday night into early Friday. EPS/GEFS output highlights 60-80% probabilities of exceeding 0.10" for areas west of Highway 83. This will likely be the last real shot at precipitation however as upstream ridging amplifies across the Great Basin with broad northwesterly flow over the central and northern Plains. Extended NWP guidance varies in placement and magnitude of anticipated high pressure aloft. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index shows growing anomalies over Wyoming/Colorado towards SLC and this coincides with upper-level heights approaching their climatological maximums. This supports the modest warming that NBM continues to advertise median values in the middle to upper 90s with outlier percentile values suggesting fairly expansive triple digits. Both EPS/GEFS show 90-100% potential for daytime highs to surpass 90F by late next weekend with 30-60% potential to surpass 100F. Will need to closely monitor this threat in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Skies will remain clear to mostly clear with light southerly winds through the daytime Sunday. Winds should weaken a bit tonight though modest LLWS may become an issue for all area terminals. Have included a mention at both terminals, ending shortly before daybreak on Monday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.