textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog will be possible early Friday morning with visibilities of less than one mile at times before conditions improve by late morning.

- Dry and warmer conditions are likely for the daytime Friday with weakening thunderstorms approaching from the west in the evening.

- Temperatures moderate for Saturday with a return to 80s and low 90s and chances (up to 30%) for thunderstorms favoring north central Nebraska in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Early this morning, radar echoes from earlier rain continue to fade away as low stratus envelopes much of west central Nebraska. Sporadic fog is being observed with a few locations in southwest Nebraska reporting less than 2SM visibilities. Believe this will expand further east with time as winds weaken as they veer. HREF shows generally weak signals for fog across our western zones with probabilities of falling to 1SM or less limited to around 10%. That said, evening HRRR runs have shown fairly expansive dense fog in the predawn hours. Will hold off on headlines at this time and monitor area cameras and observations closely.

Friday/Friday Night...behind departing high pressure, southerly winds will increase across western Nebraska. This will advect rich low-level moisture into the Panhandle and portions of far western Sandhills. This will introduce a notable instability gradient from east to west, extending up to a dryline feature that should settle around the Highway 71 corridor. Warmer temperatures are expected as a result of the broad southerly flow and forecast highs were bumped to the upper 70s to lower 80s as a result. As lapse rates steepen aloft beneath a moistening airmass, MLCAPE should approach 2000-2500 j/kg across our west within a moderately sheared environment as h5 flow nears 25-30 knots. By afternoon, convection should develop in vicinity of this dryline to the west and gradually move east off the higher terrain. Given the modest h5 flow, storm motions should remain fairly slow. This will likely keep any activity out of our western zones until the mid to late evening hours. As these storms move east, they'll encounter an increasingly hostile environment with increased capping and weakening instability. While a low-level jet will develop, it should focus across western South Dakota and not serve as any support for local activity. While some outflow winds from decaying storms are possible west of Highway 61, widespread severe weather is not expected. With the expected LLJ development beneath high level clouds, Friday night lows were boosted to the lower 60s for most locations.

Saturday/Saturday Night...broad upper level troughing will cross the Northern Rockies by Saturday morning with height falls beginning to overspread the area by the daytime. As a surface low takes shape across northeast Wyoming/southeast Montana, the constricting pressure gradient will drive gusty winds through the day. This will also promote warm air advection and further increases in daytime highs. A return to 80s and lower 90s is progged across the area. By afternoon, a sharp dryline will approach our western zones and will bear watching as a focus for thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Strong instability with 35-45 knots of 0-6km BWD would be supportive of a strong to severe thunderstorm threat with the only uncertainty being actual storm development. Temperatures in the mid- levels, particularly at h7, will approach the 13-16C range. These values are near the maximum for the respective day in the LBF site RAOB climatology. This suggests a fairly strong cap that will need to be overcome and likely suggests few if any storms will manage to develop. Will need to closely monitor this potential going forward. Later in the day, dry air behind the departing low to the northwest will work down slope and encompass much of forecast area. This should support cooler temperatures in the west with mild overnight lows persisting in the east as values range from upper 50s to near 70F.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Active weather looks to persist as we head into the long term, as upper troughing continues to move east out of the Intermountain West on Sunday towards the northern Plains by Monday night. Guidance largely keeps the area dry, though much like Saturday the environment looks conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms should development occur Sunday afternoon and evening. The corridor of greatest concern looks to be across portions of northern and north central Nebraska on Sunday, though confidence in any thunderstorm development remains low. This is tied to very warm temperatures aloft, with H7 temps again in the 13-16C range across the area Sunday evening. Some guidance also ushers the deeper moisture to the east of the area, and mesoscale trends will continue to be monitored closely.

Southwest flow persists aloft as we head into early next week, with the area finally largely post-frontal by Monday afternoon. However, some guidance suggests a narrow corridor of instability behind the cold front, along with much stronger deep layer shear amid a belt of strong H5 flow lagging the surface front. Any development prior to sunrise appears minimal at best, though a strong H85 low level jet is progged to develop and center over far northern Kansas and southwest Nebraska. This could interact favorably with the slow moving frontal boundary, and thunderstorm development overnight appears possible. The more bullish ECMWF suggests a rather robust environment for a few severe storms overnight, with significant MUCAPE (2500-3500J/kg) overlapping LCL-EL shear on the order or 45- 55kts. This is not widely supported, though does suggest at least some threat for severe hail Monday night across the area. Confidence wanes as we head into middle and late week with respect to a threat for thunderstorms, though it does appear that warmer temperatures are set to return. Upper ridging begins to establish across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley towards late week, with heights beginning to rise locally as this occurs. Broad and persistent warm advection will boost highs each day late week, with widespread upper 80s to 90s returning by Thursday and Friday. This also looks to bring increasing heat indicies as we head into Independence Day weekend, with dewpoints expected to be in the upper 60s to even lower 70s With lots of outdoor activities during the upcoming holiday weekend, this will need to be monitored closely for increasing heat concerns across the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Widespread low stratus persists through late Friday morning for western and central Nebraska terminals, with IFR/LIFR CIGs expected. Patchy fog is also expected Friday morning, with periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities. Gradual improvements back to VFR are then expected into the afternoon for all terminals.

Winds increase from the south Friday afternoon and into Friday night, with gusts of 20 to 30kts expected for all terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.