textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected through this evening. Strong southerly winds will shift to the northwest through the day but remain strong through the evening.

- An isolated risk of thunderstorms this evening, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for large hail and gusty winds.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend. Storms could be strong to severe both Saturday and Sunday. The main threats appear to be large hail and damaging wind gusts, but will continue to refine the forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A 50 to 60 kt LLJ has kept winds up overnight with winds continuing to gust around 25 to 30 mph across much of western and north central Nebraska. Given winds have continued to remain strong across the eastern portions of the CWA and poor overnight recovery, decided to extend the Red Flag Warning for fire weather zones 209 and 219, extending it to 10pm this evening, matching up with the rest of the RFW. Confidence has increased for winds to remain strong at least through the afternoon, with lower confidence in winds remaining strong through late evening. Will also note there will be a wind shift during the day and winds will shift from the south to the northwest.

A weak sfc trof will move through the area this evening with a subtle dry line. As this moves eastward across the area there will be a chance for an isolated thunderstorm. CAPE will be around 1000 to 1500 J/kg and marginally steep lapse rates. If a storm were to develop it will be a fairly narrow corridor near the dry line, generally believe this will like mainly east of HWY 83 and south of HWY 92. The main hazards with these storms will be marginally severe hail and strong winds.

Flow becomes more zonal on Friday, there will continue to be an elevated to near critical concern for fire weather temperatures will warm wind the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the Sandhills and southwest and portions of western Nebraska. Min RH will range from around 9 to 15 percent. Winds however at this time are expected to remain light, generally around 10 to 15 mph and at this time no fire weather headlines are expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Saturday, an upper level trough begins to track across the Northwest United States, bringing southwesterly flow aloft across western Nebraska. The northern jet stream will interact with the southern jet, bringing a shortwave a cross the Four Corners region. With these upper level troughs, expecting to see surface lows across southern Canada and eastern Colorado, which will be the drivers for precipitation chances this weekend. Ahead of these systems, will still see daytime highs reach above average across the region, with highs climbing into the 80s. While humidity values are again expected to drop into the 15 to 20 percent range across the region. However, there is some question on the strength of winds Saturday as well as duration. Ahead of precipitation chances, could see some additional elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across western Nebraska, for at least a few hours in the afternoon. By Saturday evening, as the low across Colorado tracks slightly to the northeast, expect increasing precipitation chances across the region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a subtle warm frontal feature, tracking across southwest Nebraska. Current forecast soundings indicate relatively meager elevated CAPE, with sufficient deep layer shear to support organized convection should thunderstorms develop. For now, believe that gusty winds would be the main threat, given dry lower layers and elevated storms, but will likely gain better confidence in the severe threat as time goes on. For what it's worth, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)across areas roughly along and south of Highway 2, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across southwest Nebraska for Saturday.

A better severe set up is expected on Sunday, as a low tracks across the Dakotas, bringing a cold front into the region. Expecting another warm day across the region, with highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 90s, with cooler temperatures across northwest Nebraska (due to the cold front). A return of higher dewpoints is also expected, with dewpoints in the 50s across the region, especially areas east of Highway 83. This will help set up strong instability, with CAPE values between 1,000-2,000 J/kg during the afternoon and evening. Around 50 knots deep layer shear is also expected, which will support organized convection. Again, SPC has highlights areas along and east of Highway 83 in a 15% chance for severe weather Sunday afternoon. Given some of the model guidance, especially forecast soundings, believe there will be a threat for strong winds and large hail Sunday afternoon, but again, will continue to gain confidence as we get closer to Sunday.

Looking into early next week, both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models indicate the trough across the western United States will continue to deepen. This is further backed by cluster analysis, indicating a deepening of the upper level trough as well. Ensemble guidance suggests rain chances stick around through Monday afternoon, with chances for continued light showers into Tuesday. Confidence in timing for precipitation and its exit from the region remain less certain. However, with the growing confidence in a deepening trough, expect that near seasonal to slightly cooler than seasonal highs will be possible through mid week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska through the effective TAF period. The main aviation concern overnight will be the gusty southerly winds, as well as a strong low level jet creating LLWS concerns across the entire region. By the morning, expecting better mixing, allowing gusty winds through the morning and into the afternoon. Winds diminish by the evening, becoming light and variable. A band of showers is tracking across northern Nebraska tonight, with high ceilings, so no impacts are expected overnight. Cloud cover persists through the morning into the early afternoon, but will mostly be mid level clouds, with no impacts to ceilings expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Winds continue to remain gusty overnight, with poor humidity recovery expected. With this in mind, consensus was to continue the Red Flag Warning and extend where the Warning was expected to expire. Confidence continues to be high in gusty southerly winds lasting into the morning. Through the morning, expecting a wind shift to northwest to northerly winds to track across the region, with westerly to northwesterly winds across the region by mid afternoon. Expect another day of well above seasonal temperatures, with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. A dry line sets up across the region this afternoon, bringing very low humidity across western Nebraska, generally in the 10 to 15 percent range, but could see single digit percentages by late afternoon. Ahead of the dry line, afternoon humidity around 15 to 25 percent is expected. Winds become light and variable this evening, with poor humidity recovery across western Nebraska. However, across north central and central Nebraska, humidity recovery is expected to be strong, generally around 70 to 80 percent.

For Friday, another hot and dry afternoon is expected, with highs again in the 80s to lower 90s. Afternoon humidity across the region is expected to drop to less than 20 percent, with amounts less than 15 percent expected west of Highway 183. While it will be hot and dry, latest guidance has backed off on winds, bringing a few gusts up to 25 mph through the afternoon, though continuous strong winds and gusts are not expected at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.