textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible each afternoon/evening Tuesday and Wednesday for much of western and north central Nebraska.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening. The severe risk continues to be refined, but there does appear to be a chance for hail and winds.

- Warmer and drier conditions are expected late this week into early next week. Above average temperatures are expected, with highs in the mid to upper 90s as early as this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Early this morning, decaying showers for Monday late evening thunderstorms persisted across the western Sandhills. A strengthening low-level jet and weak warm air advection should allow activity to persist through daybreak in roughly the same areas. Mesoanalysis depicts moderate MUCAPE in place to the tune of 1000- 2000 j/kg though fairly strong capping to overcome. With the latter of these details, believe coverage will be limited to isolated and thus have PoPs at 20% or less. Most locations will remain dry and those that do see rain will probably see only a tenth of an inch at best. Early morning readings ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s. While some cooling is still likely to occur, lingering high clouds should keep things on the milder side with forecast lows only reaching the lower to middle 60s for most if not all locations.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...early morning low-level jet should veer and focus further north into South Dakota by mid to late morning. This will bring a swift end to any isolated activity shortly after daybreak. Upper level high pressure will stall across the Four Corners region with a shortwave trough crossing the Intermountain West through the day. This will favor increasing lee troughing and eventual surface low development by late afternoon. Southerly winds will increase as a warm front develops near the I-90 corridor and gusty afternoon winds are expected. NBM probabilistic data shows increasing potential for gusts to exceed 25 mph with the western Sandhills showing 80% potential by late morning and expansive 60-80% potential by mid-afternoon for all locations of west central Nebraska. This generally aligns with BUFKIT soundings which show reasonable signals for momentum transfer gusts in the 20-25 mph range, increasing to 30-35 mph for areas west of Highway 83. Monday evening RAOB data from North Platte shows h85 temperatures around 25C and short-term guidance shows little if any change expected. As a result, afternoon highs are generally a persistence forecast with widespread 90s and middle to upper 90s for southwest into the Panhandle and along/north the Niobrara Valley. By late afternoon, low-level inhibition should erode from low-level mixing as forcing increases from the approaching shortwave. Convection should fire along a subtle dryline across the Panhandle with an eastward trajectory with time. Greater low-level moisture should support greater instability to the east.. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) invof the Pine Ridge and north with a Marginal Risk (level 1) north and west of a Lynch to Ainsworth to Imperial line. In general agreement on this with greater instability/shear overlap to the north closer to the warm front. That said, moderate instability with 20-30 knot shear should still support multicell clusters with a few transient supercells. Forecast soundings depict inverted-v profiles which suggest a ripe environment for 60-70 mph outflow gusts though some severe hail will certainly be possible as well with straight, though not particularly long, hodographs. Convection should favor late afternoon into the evening hours with early afternoon activity unlikely due to strong capping. Activity should weaken with eastward extent thus rain potential will largely be limited to areas west of Highway 83.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...convective reinforcement along with approaching high pressure should shunt the I-90 warm front south as a cool front into Wednesday. This boundary should stall across western Nebraska by early morning and casts some uncertainty in afternoon high temperatures. NBM MaxT standard deviation values show a subtle increase with statistical guidance showing large discrepancies across northern Nebraska. Afternoon temperatures were trended down slightly as a result but falls well short of the cooler values advertised by NAM/MET guidance. Will need to evaluate this closer with subsequent forecasts. General easterly flow will be in place for much of western Nebraska as the area resides north of the warm front extending east across Kansas from developing low-pressure near La Junta, CO. The exception to this will be southwest Nebraska which may remain close to the boundary in question and allow for another hot and humid day. This results in varying maximum temperatures: middle 80s in the north to middle 90s in the south. By mid afternoon, moderate instability should develop within a weakly sheared environment. The SPC has introduced a new Slight Risk (level 2) for much of western Nebraska and this aligns with the hotter environment. Deeper mixing will promote inverted-v profiles again which will favor damaging wind gusts with any thunderstorms that develop. HREF guidance highlights two distinct areas of development: 1) high terrain activity forming off the Front Range of southeast Wyoming and 2) activity in closer proximity to the lingering surface boundary of central Nebraska. The latter of which will form as convergence increases later from an approaching shortwave trough. In either environment, damaging wind gusts are likely favored again though severe hail will also be possible, especially in the early life of any development when updrafts are more robust and less competitive with each other. The PoP forecast was nudged towards NAM guidance which showed these two different areas of development and similarly, the rainfall forecast leans on NAM output as well. This suggests some heavy rain potential, particularly with slow moving storms near the boundary, but the majority of the heaviest rain should remain south and east of local area. This matches the latest WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook which favors eastern Nebraska but clips our eastern zones with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4). Though slow to depart, convection should exit to the south by early morning Thursday. Low temperatures should fall into the upper 50s to middle 60s which remains slightly above normal for early/mid July.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

By Thursday, an upper level low is expected to sit over Alberta, with mostly zonal flow across the Central Plains. As an upper level shortwave tracks through the upper level flow, a surface low is expected to track east across the Dakotas, bringing a cold front across the region Thursday afternoon and evening. Dewpoints ahead of the front are expected to break into the lower 60s across the region, providing plenty of moisture ahead of the cold front's forcing. This should again set up an environment supportive of building instability across the region, and with the upper level flow, should provide modest deep layer shear across the region, supporting organized convection in the afternoon and evening. While the mesoscale features will still need to be resolved to build higher confidence in severe threats, there does at least appear to be a signal for additional large hail and damaging wind threats Thursday. While the severe threat will continue to be refined in the coming forecasts, confidence in seeing showers and thunderstorms is moderately high for Thursday afternoon and evening across the region.

After Thursday, upper level ridging begins to build across western Nebraska, which should bring a return of a drier pattern late week into the weekend. In fact, guidance is fairly pessimistic in precipitation chances this weekend into early next week. With the upper level ridging, warmer temperatures are expected to advect into the region, bringing a return of higher temperatures across western and north central Nebraska, especially this weekend into early next week. Confidence is fairly high in this return of warmer, drier conditions, especially considering the general consensus in spaghetti plots and cluster analysis. Highs this weekend into early next week are expected to climb into the 90s, with highs in the mid to upper 90s as early as Sunday. While this is warmer than typical for this time of year, our typical highs are right around 90 degrees, so not too out of the ordinary for July. For now, forecast highs are right around the 75th to 90th percentile compared to climatology, remaining well cooler than record highs. However, with a return to warmer, drier conditions, will be keeping a close eye on the humidity and wind forecasts over the next several days. This pattern could bring a return of fire weather concerns, depending on how this week's weather pattern evolves.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

A plume of high clouds, residual convective anvil debris, remains in place across much of western Nebraska. This cloud deck should remain in place for much of the overnight hours with gradual clearing towards daybreak Tuesday. Gusty south winds should develop during the day with peak speeds around 25 knots for both terminals. Later in the period, will be watching as thunderstorms once again approach from the west. For now, believe this threat should materialize just beyond the end of the valid period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.