textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread dense fog will continue into this morning with a dense fog advisory in effect until 10 AM MDT/11 AM CDT.

- Scattered showers are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night, with the greatest precipitation chances currently favoring central and eastern Nebraska. Mainly dry conditions are expected Saturday, with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s through the weekend.

- A stronger storm system may impact the region early to middle next week, bringing increasing chances for more widespread rainfall and cooler temperatures. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the timing and track of this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Today and Tonight...The main concern will be widespread fog through mid morning. The 00Z LBF sounding showed saturation up to H85 with much drier air aloft. This will be favorable for dense fog across southwest and central NE, north to near highways 2 and 91. A prefrontal surface trough will move east this morning, followed by a weak cold frontal passage late morning into this afternoon. This will end fog from west to east starting near daybreak with morning stratus clearing out late morning into early afternoon. Highs today remain near the previous forecast from the mid 60s northwest Sandhills to upper 60s and lower 70s elsewhere. Surface high pressure will move into eastern NE tonight. Winds will be light and variable, except becoming light southeast across the northwest Sandhills. Could see stratus and fog returning to the panhandle and far southwest Nebraska after midnight. Lows will be cooler in the mid to upper 30s.

Thursday and Thursday night...Stratus may persist across northwest Kansas and far southwest NE into Thursday afternoon, and lowered highs a few degrees across far southwest Nebraska. Highs should be rather uniform from 62 to 66 degrees across the forecast area as winds return to the south to southeast at 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon, with gusts to 20 mph across the northwest Sandhills. A warm front is forecast to develop across west central into north central KS in the afternoon, where showers and a few thunderstorms may develop. The warm front will lift northeast Thursday night, with a slight chance for showers across far southeastern areas. Synoptically, a closed low will persist of the coast of the Pacific Northwest as the main upper trough persists along the West Coast. This will bring an increase in southwesterly flow aloft to the region as a shortwave trough moves through New Mexico and west Texas. As a result, skies will become mostly cloudy with lows from the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Friday, a longwave trough will remain established across the western United States as a negative PNA pattern persists. Downstream of this trough, upper-level ridging will continue to amplify across the central United States, resulting in height rises across the region. During the day Friday, model guidance continues to indicate a weak lead shortwave disturbance moving through the southwesterly flow ahead of the main trough. Increasing warm air advection (WAA) within the lower to middle levels, along with strengthening southerly flow, will support continued moisture transport into the central Plains. This disturbance will also have increasing moisture to work with, given the Pacific moisture associated with the approaching system and surface dewpoints expected to reach the lower to middle 50s across portions of the region. With increasing forcing for ascent associated with the lead shortwave, scattered precipitation chances remain possible Friday afternoon into Friday night. However, uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and intensity of precipitation, with the GFS continuing to be the more aggressive solution. In contrast, the ECMWF remains less aggressive, favoring the better precipitation chances farther east across central and eastern Nebraska. Given these differences, confidence in widespread precipitation remains low, and trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. Highs Friday should remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with overnight lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Saturday, upper-level ridging will remain established across the northern Plains as the western longwave trough gradually begins progressing eastward, resulting in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft across the region. Low-level moisture transport will also continue, with PWAT values approaching 200 percent of normal across portions of the area. Given the anomalously moist air mass and continued moisture advection, considerable low-level cloud cover may develop and persist through portions of the day Saturday. Despite the increased moisture, precipitation chances should remain low as stronger forcing for ascent remains displaced west of the forecast area. Highs Saturday should reach the lower to middle 60s, with overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 40s as the increased moisture and cloud cover limit radiational cooling.

Sunday into the middle of next week, attention turns toward the western trough as it begins progressing eastward and potentially develops into a closed upper-level low across the Four Corners region by Sunday afternoon or evening. By Monday, model guidance generally supports this system beginning to eject eastward into the central United States, resulting in increasing southwesterly flow aloft and stronger synoptic-scale forcing for ascent across the central Plains. With anomalous moisture remaining in place ahead of the approaching system, precipitation chances are expected to increase, with the potential for more widespread rainfall across the region early next week. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution, timing, and eventual track of this system. Both the GEFS and EPS generally support increasing precipitation chances across the region Monday, though differences remain regarding the placement of the strongest forcing for ascent and the axis of greatest precipitation. One additional source of uncertainty is the potential for a stronger northern-stream trough to interact with the southern-stream system. Some guidance has begun to suggest a more amplified northern-stream disturbance, which could influence the timing and track of the southern-stream trough and potentially result in a more progressive system. Depending on how these features interact, the corridor of greatest moisture transport and precipitation could shift farther south and east of the forecast area. Given the system remains several days away, additional changes in model guidance are expected. Nevertheless, confidence is gradually increasing in a more active weather pattern early to middle next week, with the potential for a stronger storm system to affect the central Plains. Trends will continue to be monitored as model guidance begins to converge on a more consistent solution. Temperatures should gradually cool into the 50s by early to middle next week as the storm system approaches and precipitation chances increase. However, temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild for this time of year, as the overall pattern does not currently favor a significant intrusion of colder air into the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Expect significant aviation impacts through the first half of the forecast period.

Satellite analysis depicts low stratus across southwest through north central Nebraska with further expansion to the north and west depicted. This is leading to IFR and LIFR conditions which should persist through daybreak on Wednesday. Expect quick improvement by late morning Wednesday with VFR conditions expected thereafter through the end of the forecast period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ022>028-035>038-056>059-069>071.