textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A threat for thunderstorms persist both tonight and again Monday across the area. The strongest storms may pose a threat for large hail and gusty winds.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday behind a cold front, with a more fall-like pattern persisting through the remainder of the week.

- Periodic precipitation chances are expected Tuesday through late week, with increasing potential for wetting rainfall toward the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Persistent low cloudiness across much of the area had held temperatures in the low 60s thus far this afternoon, with the exception to this being across far southwest Nebraska. Here, clear skies has allowed for temperatures to climb into the upper 70s. This is within a broad warm advection/isentropic ascent regime, with gusty southeast winds across the area this afternoon.

For this evening, expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to overspread western and northwest Nebraska as they move off the higher terrain to the west. As these storms approach the northwest Sandhills late this evening, they could pose a risk for large hail and gusty winds. That said, little to no surface based instability will be in place late evening for areas near and east of HWY 61. This does lend some doubt in any threat for damaging winds, especially in areas across northern Nebraska that remain very stable under the persistent low cloudiness. MUCAPE does increase near and after dark to ~1500-2000J/kg with the strengthening of the LLJ, and this elevated instability combined with strong flow aloft could lead to some threat for large hail in the strongest storms. Additional thunderstorm development is possible through much of the overnight hours across northern Nebraska, before the LLJ begins to focus to the north and lift any lingering convection into southern South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska near and after sunrise.

A stationary front, currently positioned across southwest Kansas, will begin to lift northwards as a warm front tomorrow morning, moving across the area into the afternoon. This briefly places the area in the warm sector, and should coincide with a brief lull in precipitation. As surface low pressure then ejects across South Dakota tomorrow afternoon, a cold front then quickly moves across the area from west to east. It is along this boundary where additional thunderstorm development will be possible early tomorrow evening. Guidance differs with respect to the placement of the boundary tomorrow, and this will drive any threat for strong to severe storms locally. That said, recent trends have been more progressive and this keeps the bulk of evening thunderstorms of to the southeast. Trends in surfaced based storms continues to wane tomorrow, though cannot be completely ruled out for areas south of I- 80 completely. Regardless of frontal placement, additional post- frontal showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of southwest into central Nebraska tomorrow night into early Tuesday morning, and the strongest storms could pose a risk for hail.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Tuesday, a northern-stream longwave trough will become established across the Dakotas, driving stronger mid-level cold air advection across the region. Forecast 850-mb temperature anomalies fall to around 4 to 6C below normal. At the surface, a cold front will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday morning, with gusty northeast winds developing behind the boundary. High temperatures Tuesday will remain quite cool, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lingering cloud cover likely limiting daytime heating. In terms of precipitation, the cold front is expected to move south into northern and central Kansas, keeping the strongest forcing primarily south of the forecast area. However, some guidance suggests better forcing may extend farther north into southern portions of the area, supporting at least some precipitation potential Tuesday morning. The exact northern extent of this precipitation remains uncertain. Lows Tuesday night will fall into the middle to upper 40s north, with middle to upper 50s farther south.

Wednesday, westerly flow aloft will become established across the region as another disturbance approaches within the flow. Meanwhile, the surface front is expected to remain nearly stationary across Kansas. Temperatures will remain relatively cool, with highs generally in the middle 70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances will increase as mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis strengthen north of the stationary boundary. This should promote increasing isentropic ascent and a more overrunning-type precipitation regime, with showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of the region. The greatest precipitation chances currently appear across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. The surface-based severe weather threat should remain low with the area north of the frontal boundary. However, elevated instability combined with relatively low freezing levels may support a few stronger thunderstorms. Lows Wednesday night will range from the upper 40s north to lower 50s elsewhere.

Thursday and beyond, the pattern will remain active as multiple weak disturbances move through the established westerly flow aloft. Temperatures should remain more fall-like, with highs generally in the 70s through the remainder of the period. A persistent baroclinic zone is forecast to remain near northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. Repeated disturbances interacting with this zone should support periodic precipitation chances through the end of the long- term period. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact placement of the baroclinic zone and timing of individual disturbances, which will influence where the greatest precipitation amounts ultimately occur. However, confidence is increasing in at least some wetting rainfall across western and north-central Nebraska during the period. The greatest potential currently appears toward late week as a stronger system approaches the region. Overall, a cooler and wetter pattern is expected through the long- term period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Widespread low stratus will persist today and tonight, leading to widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs. In addition, patchy fog/drizzle will lead to periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities tonight and tomorrow morning. A gradual improvement back to VFR then expected tomorrow afternoon across much of western and north central Nebraska, though may not occur until after the end of the valid period.

Winds remain southeasterly today and tonight, with gusts of 25 to 35kts for all terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.