textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across western Nebraska Monday evening. A few storms could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds, primarily for areas along and west of Highway 61.

- Additional thunderstorms are expected across western and north central Nebraska on Tuesday. A few storms could be strong to severe, with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats.

- High confidence in continued near-daily thunderstorm chances, although the severe potential is uncertain.

- Moderate confidence in mild temperatures through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Currently, scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across portions of northern Nebraska, within a weak warm advection regime. This activity is expected to wane prior to sunrise, as the warm advection weakens aloft. Surface high pressure is expected to then move into eastern Nebraska early this morning, and will allow for weak winds and efficient radiational cooling, with lows falling as low as the upper 40s in northwest Nebraska and the low 50s elsewhere. This will lead to a threat for patchy fog and low stratus development across the area and this will persist through late this morning.

By this afternoon, southerly flow returns to the area amid broad surface cyclogenesis along the lee of the Rockies. This will bring the moist airmass back westwards, and into the higher terrain to the west by late afternoon. This should help to initiate isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along the high terrain, which are then expected to traverse east towards western Nebraska by late evening. With lapse rates remaining steep aloft, increasing instability will overlap with strong deep layer shear and suggests that supercells will be favored at least initially across eastern Wyoming and into far western Nebraska. These storms are expected to approach the HWY 61 corridor by 5-7pm MDT, and could pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The severe threat is expected to remain more isolated further east, as instability decreases and CIN begins to increase by the time the storms push east of HWY 61 late tomorrow evening.

A brief lull in thunderstorms is possible after sunset tonight, before a low level jet begins to strengthen across western Nebraska and much of the Sandhills after Midnight. High-res guidance continues to suggest scattered to widespread thunderstorm development in conjunction with this, and this should persist late Monday night and into at least late Tuesday morning. The threat for severe weather with this early morning activity is uncertain, though ample MUCAPE (~1500-2000 J/kg) will be in place across much of the area. Strong winds aloft could support updraft organization, and a few elevated storms capable of large hail appear possible early Tuesday morning. With PWAT values increasing towards the 90th percentile of climo, any upscale growth and training in the overnight convection could lead to a threat for locally heavy rainfall as well.

The early day thunderstorms on Tuesday casts significant uncertainty on any severe weather for Tuesday afternoon and evening, though trends will continue to be monitored. Should airmass recovery occur Tuesday afternoon, long and straight hodographs suggest some threat for supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging winds yet again across the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A series of disturbances will continue to impact the region through much of next week. These systems will bring near-daily thunderstorm chances through at least Friday as upper level troughs continue to slide across Nebraska. At this time, not expecting severe thunderstorms, but some hail and briefly stronger winds will be possible with these storms. Otherwise, rain and ample cloud cover will keep temperatures fairly mild through Friday with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

Upper level ridging returns to the central US by the weekend bringing a return to drier conditions. In addition, the ridging will also allow temperatures to begin to moderate back to near or slightly above normal (mid 80s). Warm air advection with 850mb temperatures in the 20 to 28 C range will result in surface highs to return to the 80s on both Saturday and Sunday, potentially a few locations reaching into the 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Patchy fog will continue to impact portions of north central Nebraska through mid-morning. Fog will mainly be confined to the river valleys and low lying area and should diminish over the next few hours. Ceilings remain below 3500 feet through early afternoon before rising to near 5000 feet by the late afternoon/early evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again by the evening, but will remain to the west of both terminals. Additional shower activity is also possible after 06Z across north central Nebraska, but confidence is low in development and locations and therefore has been left out of the prevailing forecast at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.