textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures and dry conditions return to the area tomorrow, persisting through Wednesday.

- A strong system crosses the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing a threat for strong winds and light precipitation.

- After a brief cooler day on Thursday, mild temperatures return for Friday and into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Currently, stratus has been slow to erode across much of southwest and central Nebraska, holding temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s. In areas that have cleared out across northwest Nebraska, temperatures are in the middle 30s to low 40s.

For tonight, expect the stratus to continues erode, with expectation of the low cloud finally eroding for all areas tonight. Still, this will be a slow process, and the potential remains for this stratus to linger longer than forecast. By late tonight, a weak surface trough will push across the area from west to east, with westerly downslope flow establishing in it wake. This westerly flow will help to erode any lingering low cloudiness, and also allow for lows to remain in the middle to upper 20s across western Nebraska.

By tomorrow, persistent westerly flow will shunt the arctic airmass eastward, with temperatures quickly returning to well above average for all of western and north central Nebraska. Highs range from the upper 40s in north central Nebraska to near 60 degrees west of HWY 61. Northwesterly flow establishes across the Plains aloft, pointing to dry conditions across the area tomorrow. Lows tomorrow night fall into the middle to upper 20s, with warm advection persisting.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

The first of two deep surface lows this week ejects east across Saskatchewan/Manitoba through the day Tuesday, with another surface trough pushing through the area. This strengthens the downslope flow with its passage, helping to boost highs a few degrees above Monday. The combination of these mild temperatures and increasing west winds could bring fire weather concerns, though the strongest winds look to remain across the western Panhandle at this time.

Strong surface cyclogenesis quickly gets underway into Wednesday, as yet another strong clipper system begins to eject towards the International Border by Wednesday evening. This rapidly deepening surface pressure will lead to increasing southwest winds across the entire area through the afternoon hours Wednesday. This could lead to elevated to even near-critical fire weather concerns, as humidity values fall coinciding with the strengthening winds. By Wednesday night, a very anomalously strong surface low finally ejects across North Dakota, reaching eastern Minnesota by Thursday morning. In fact, ensemble guidance points towards SLP values below the 1st percentile and approaching climatological minimums across much of the Dakotas and northern Nebraska. This is compounded by strong winds aloft, with both H85 and H7 winds progged to increase above the 99th percentile of climo Thursday morning. All of this points to a highly anomalous system, and a threat for strong winds across all of western and north central Nebraska. Deterministic solutions remain split with the corridor of highest winds for now, though potential exists for a high impact period of 60-70mph wind gusts Thursday morning across much of the area. Both increasing cold advection and strong pressure rises with frontal passage suggest the higher momentum flow aloft will have no issues transferring to the surface despite time of day. This will need to be monitored closely, and high wind headlines may be needed with time. Scattered light rain showers are possible with the passage of the front as well, though this looks to be of little impact. Thermodynamic profiles look to remain warm enough to limit any threat for wintry precipitation, though trends will be monitored. Another problem may be fire weather on Thursday afternoon, as humidity falls as low as 25 to 35 percent. Winds will begin to weaken by late afternoon as the system quickly departs, though a period of near-critical fire concerns is possible prior to this.

The very active pattern persists into Friday, with yet another low ejecting across the Dakotas Friday afternoon. This drags a surface trough through the area, again leading to warm downslope flow. Highs quickly return to the upper 50s to 60s, and these mild temps look to hang around into next weekend. Unfortunately, this could prolong fire concerns across the area, and will need to be monitored closely.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Low stratus persists into this afternoon across much of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, with IFR/LIFR CIGS expected. This low stratus will continue to slowly erode into late afternoon, with VFR expected to return to all terminals by tonight. VFR conditions then prevail into tomorrow afternoon.

Winds remain gusty from the south today, with gusts of 20 to 25 expected. Winds then become westerly tonight, at 5 to 10kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.