textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to high confidence in near-critical to critical fire conditions on Saturday.

- Moderate to high confidence in accumulating snowfall across northern Nebraska Saturday night and into Sunday.

-Moderate to high confidence in dry conditions and above normal temperatures next week with temperatures rising into the 80s by mid- week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Dry and warm conditions continue through Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. This will create a favorable environment for fire weather concerns on Saturday. Strong winds will begin to develop by late Saturday morning as the next system begins to deepen across eastern Wyoming. Above normal temperatures in the mid 70s combined with afternoon RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range will create near-critical to critical fire conditions across much of southwest Nebraska and into portions of the Sandhills and central Nebraska. While west southwest winds will be strongest across the eastern Panhandle (gusts up to 40 to 45 mph), winds elsewhere will still be as high as to 30 mph. With fuels dry, any fire starts, even with the slightly lower winds, could cause some uncontrollable and unpredictable fires. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a Red Flag Warning for the majority of region for Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The main concern in the long term will be the arrival of a winter system on Saturday night. This system will bring the potential for snow across northern Nebraska as well as strong winds to much of north central and western Nebraska. As this system develops and deepens across Nebraska on Saturday, very strong winds will develop. As it tracks eastward Saturday night, precipitation on the northern and western sides of the low will bring some much needed precipitation to portions of northern Nebraska. A very sharp gradient will exist on the southern end of the system, however, where this gradient/cut-off sets up is still uncertain. Current QPF amounts of up to a half inch are expected across Boyd and northern Holt counties which, with snow ratios near 20:1, will result in up to 3 inches of snowfall. In addition to snowfall, this system will bring some very gusty winds to the region on Saturday night and into Sunday. Some locations could see north/northwest gusts up to 50 to 55 mph. At this time, a high wind watch is in effect for much of the region (all counties except Holt and Boyd) where gusts up to 60 mph may be possible. Further to the north, these strong wind gusts will create areas of blowing and drifting snow as well as increased visibility restrictions in falling snow. Have gone ahead and issued a winter storm watch for Holt and Boyd counties to account for the combined wind and snow affects.

High pressure will build back into the region early next week bringing with it a return to dry and warmer conditions. Temperatures will gradually warm back up through mid-week, with highs returning back into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. Latest EFI remains high (0.8 to 0.9) with marginal SoT (between 0 and 1) increasing confidence that more extreme, potentially record-breaking, maximum temperatures may occur on Thursday. Therefore, would not be surprised to see temperatures increase in the next day or two. Speaking of records, record highs currently sit at 90, 85, 86, and 87 at North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow, and Imperial respectively. If temperatures do increase into the upper 80s to low 90s by late week, most if not all of these sites will have the opportunity to break new records.

There is a low end chance of some isolated precipitation on Monday night and into Tuesday as a shortwave pushes across the northern Plains. At this time, confidence is low in development and any precipitation that does develop is expected to be light with little in the way of QPF. Therefore, confident in continuing to advertise a generally dry forecast through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Expect broken mid level cloudiness with ceilings around 6000 FT AGL, to persist this afternoon over northern Nebraska. This will impact the KVTN terminal through 00z Saturday. Ceilings will scatter out and increase to 20000 to 25000 FT AGL thereafter. For southern Nebraska, expect scattered high clouds to persist over the next 24 hours with ceilings around 25000 FT AGL. Winds will generally be under 15 KTS this afternoon with wind direction being variable at the KVTN terminal and southerly at the KLBF terminal. Winds will diminish further tonight with low level wind shear developing after 06z at the KVTN terminal and after 10z at the KLBF terminal. Winds will begin to mix out by mid morning at the KLBF terminal with southwesterly wind gusts approaching 20 KTS after 15z Saturday. Winds will be from the east and southeast at the KVTN terminal at around 10 KTS Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Critical fire weather concerns are expected to return on Saturday as RH values drop and winds increase. Humidity will drop to below 20 percent for much of the region with some locations across extreme southwest Nebraska dropping below 15 percent. Westerly wind gusts up to 45 mph are anticipated across the Panhandle with wind gusts across the rest of the area up to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect through early evening due to these strong winds, lower RH values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Overnight RH values will recover to over 70 percent as the next weather system pushes into the region bringing some light precipitation to northern Nebraska. QPF values will remain under a half inch for areas mainly north of Highway 2, with lesser amounts to the south and west.

While humidity values remain generally over 30 percent on Sunday, strong gusty winds will return to the entire region, even those areas not expected to get precipitation. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected through the afternoon before winds begin to diminish after sunset. For those areas that do not get any precipitation on Sunday, some elevated fire conditions may be possible due to the strong winds. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for most locations to account for the anticipated strong northerly winds.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Saturday for NEZ204-206-209-210-219. High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NEZ004>006-008-009-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NEZ007-010.