textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday night, especially along and east of Highway 83. Some storms may be strong to severe, with hail being the primary concern. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) has been issued for southwest into north central Nebraska.

- Accumulating snowfall is expected Thursday night into Saturday morning, especially across northwestern Nebraska. Highest accumulations are expected to be around 3 inches, especially near Pine Ridge.

- Above normal temperatures lasting late weekend into early next week, with a potential return of elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns Saturday through Monday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 151 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

An upper level low tracks across eastern Nebraska this evening, with an upper level trough beginning to track across the West Coast. This provides a slight ridge across western Nebraska, bringing another night of calm weather across the region. Low level southerly advection will bring another tongue of moisture aloft across southwest Nebraska. With another night of relatively calm winds and moisture advection, expecting that patchy for once again develops along portions of southwest into central Nebraska, especially along lower lying regions and river valleys. Not expecting fog headlines to be needed at this time, but definitely something to keep in mind during the morning commute.

The upper level trough continues to track east on Thursday, which will intensify a surface low pressure system off the lee of the Rockies. This will set the stage for a fairly active and multifaceted weather pattern Thursday night through Saturday afternoon across the region. First up will be the risk for showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening into Friday morning. While better chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected across eastern Nebraska, a modest axis of elevated instability is expected across portions of southwest into north central Nebraska. Forecast soundings across this region suggest fair amounts of speed shear along this instability axis, which should support the development of strong to severe thunderstorms late Thursday evening. With the more elevated nature of these storms, expecting that the main severe threat will be hail. With the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for late Thursday evening.

Additionally with this system, a strong cold front is expected to track into the region, which will bring chances for accumulating snowfall across northwestern Nebraska starting after midnight early Friday morning into Saturday morning. As the cooler air continues to track to the southeast, expecting a more widespread change over from rain to snow, with some potential for a light wintry mix along the front. Somewhat complicating the forecast is how far the cold front tracks on Friday afternoon. Forecast highs behind the front range from the low to upper 30s, with temperatures ahead of the front potentially in the mid 50s. This sets up a fairly tight temperature gradient across the Sandhills Friday afternoon affecting precipitation types. By Friday night into Saturday morning, expecting a switch over to snow across the region, but this is also expected to occur as the system tracks out of the region.

For now, highest accumulations are expected along Pine Ridge and into western Cherry County, where storm total accumulations around 3 inches are expected. General accumulations of greater than 1 inch are expected to mostly remain to the northwest of an Ainsworth to Ogallala line. However, starting to see some signals in both the GFS and NAM indicating some potential for mesoscale banding, largely driven by stronger frontogenetic forcing. Will continue to keep a close eye on these forecast trends, since this could signal potential for locally higher amounts, especially across portions of western Nebraska.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 151 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

As most of the precipitation moves out of the area by Saturday morning, zonal flow returns. Resulting from this pattern will be warmer, drier conditions across the central plains over the weekend and peaking Monday. A surge of warm air advection starts to move in Saturday afternoon with highs forecasted to be in the mid 50s to 60s. Highs will continue to rise on Sunday with highs expected to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Monday appears to be the peak of high temps across the region. With 850 mb temperatures in the range of 9 to 16 C, this will allow surface highs to reach well into the mid to upper 70s. Latest guidance even suggests the possibility of highs reaching the mid to upper 80s, so it would not be surprising if forecasted highs rise several degrees more into the 80s Monday afternoon and potentially challenging record highs.

As such, the return to warmer, drier conditions, means an increase in fire weather concerns across the region. While Saturday and Sunday will have some elevated concerns, Monday will have the greatest concern. On Monday, humidities are expected to drop into the mid teens across southwest NE and mid to low 20s across much of the Sandhills and Panhandle. The low humidity combined with west northwest winds gusting up to 20 to 30 mph, will make near- critical fire weather conditions possible, especially since the day will already be so warm with mostly clear skies.

A potential return to some moisture arrives on Tuesday as a system starts to move through. With precipitation arriving Tuesday morning across the Panhandle and temperatures at this time still hovering just below freezing, the precip will likely start out as snow. Precipitation will spread southeastward throughout the day, transitioning to rain. The exact track of the system and accumulations at this time remain uncertain but will be fine- tuned over the next several days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Dry and warm conditions will persist through Thursday. Some stronger southerly winds are expected across much of north central Nebraska during the afternoon with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots. Winds diminish around sunset, with the next precipitation chances moving into the region by mid-evening. Across southwest Nebraska isolated thunderstorms will be possible and capable of producing heavy rainfall, small hail, and strong, erratic winds. Expect some reduced visibility. At KVTN, rain and thunderstorms will remain south of the region until after 06Z Friday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Thursday for NEZ010-028-029.