textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers possible this afternoon into early evening

- Strong westerly winds continue to shift to the northwest this afternoon and evening

- Additional chances of rain/snow showers overnight, with rain showers possible Friday through Friday night

- Moderate confidence (60 - 80%) in widespread precipitation Saturday night through Monday morning.

- Cooler, near normal temperatures next week, with chances of for showers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for isolated showers this afternoon into the early evening, strong winds and additional precipitation chances into Friday. A weak cold front will push southeast from the northwest Sandhills and as it moves southeast some weak low to mid level lift is expected to develop a few isolated showers. Shower activity will be high based with several locations showing an inverted v sounding during the afternoon and early evening hours, thus could see the potential for gusty, erratic winds, outside of the mean strong winds. Gusts in excess of 50 mph could be associated with the showers. Dry lighting is not anticipated, however an isolated lightning strike can't be ruled out. Shower activity will mostly be diurnally driven with activity generally diminishing near sunset.

Winds continue to remain strong out of the west, then as the weak cold front moves through winds will turn to the northwest. Sustained winds will generally be around 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph the rest of the afternoon into the early evening. The strongest winds will be across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 83 where sustained winds will be closer to 25 to 30 mph this afternoon. Did also add the mention of haze to the forecast to account for the smoke particulates from the ongoing wildfires in combination with the strong winds. Although there will be some reductions in visibility, most of the smoke particulates should remain aloft leading mostly to impacts with hazy skies than sfc reduced visibilities, however there may be the potential for some reduced visibilities with patchy blowing dusts. The combination of strong gusty winds and dry conditions continue to support critical fire weather conditions. For more information regarding fire weather, please see the fire weather section.

As for precipitation chances tonight, as another disturbance moves in from the Black Hills into the northwest Sandhills could see some light showers with a brief transition to a rain/snow mix as temperatures dip below freezing across the northwest Sandhills. Trace accumulation of snowfall may be possible near the Pine Ridge area, however generally expect little to no snow accumulations across the northwest Sandhills. As the SW trof moves across the area will see additional shower activity. There is some weak instability in the afternoon and evening and there may be the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Shower activity is expected to continue into the Saturday. Uncertainty remains in how much qpf will occur, but expect to at least see a better chance of some measurable rainfall.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

There are 2 upper level streams remaining over CONUS heading into the weekend. First, being the northern stream of a weakening upper level low remaining mostly stationary over Saskatchewan. The southern stream upper level trough trekking its way across the southwestern United States, promoting southwesterly flow.

As this system creeps into our region by Saturday night/early Sunday morning, a Colorado surface low develops. With there being plenty of moisture being advected northward from the Gulf, this will promote deeper moisture profiles across the region. Starting mid Sunday morning precipitation develops across southwest Nebraska due to southeast upslope flow, sharpening warm front, and strong mid-level FGEN. These factors lasting through most Sunday and into part of Monday, leads to the credence of widespread rainfall looking quite promising. Currently, NBM 50th percentile has widespread precipitation amounts of around a half inch, with 90th percentile indicating the potential of slightly over an inch. Ensemble guidance further supports this trend as LREF probability of accumulated precipitation being greater than half an inch is 60 to 80 percent across most of our region and greater than an inch being 40 to 60 percent chance north of Highway 2. In addition to the potential of widespread rainfall, there remains a possibility of some snow showers up to a half an inch. Specifically in northern Sheridan county where low temperatures could drop to just below freezing. While the system looks promising overall, there still remains some uncertainty of the exact track and speed, both of which influence the precipitation distribution across our region.

High temperatures during this system (Saturday through Monday) are forecasted to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, in the low to mid 50s. While winds appear to be remain light over the weekend, Monday will potentially be a gusty day as the upper level trough passes through our region. Expecting northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph, gusting up to 45 mph in the central Sandhills into North-Central Nebraska.

Heading into next week, cooler temperatures will return to the region, following in the wake of the system. Highs will be near normal for the season with lows being near or just below freezing. Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be a slight warm up to the low to mid 60s across the region. Multiple weak disturbances will be possible throughout the week that could bring periodic chances for precipitation but this will continued to be monitored for exact trends.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty west northwest winds of 15 to 20 kts, gusting up to 35 kts will remain until the mid evening tonight. A southeast moving cold front will start to move into north central NE by the early afternoon. This front could push gusts up to 35 to 40 kts in the KVTN terminal, but should move through quickly by the early evening. Additionally, there is some hazy conditions present due ongoing fires but shouldn't create reduced visibility.

Some light showers capable of producing gusty, erratic winds, will be possible in Northwest Nebraska this evening, but should stay west of both terminals. Winds will start to diminish by midnight tonight and shift north northeasterly at 5 to 10 kts. Mid layer clouds will start invade the region late Friday morning accompanied by light southwest winds.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will continue through early evening across western and north central Nebraska. Expect gusty northwesterly winds early this evening, shifting to the north by late evening. Winds will then diminish further overnight. On Friday, winds will shift to the south or southwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Afternoon RH Friday afternoon will range from 20 to 30 percent across the area. RH recovery tonight will range from 75 to 90 percent. RH recovery Friday night will range from 90 to 100 percent. There is a decent threat for light rain Friday night into Saturday, with a secondary threat Saturday night into Sunday. With the threat for precipitation this weekend and seasonal temperatures next week, fire weather concerns appear limited.