textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected today. Strong southerly winds are expected today and tonight.

- Near critical fire weather concerns are expected again Thursday and possibly Friday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this weekend. Sunday appears to be the more favorable day, with potential for strong thunderstorms. However, the severe threat remains uncertain at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Winds will strengthen by mid-morning from west to east as a sfc low begins to approach the region from the west, tightening pressure gradient. Winds will be out of the south with sustained winds around 20 to 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. Both the namnest and the RAP bufkit soundings suggest the strongest winds will be across western Nebraska, where seeing 40 to 45 mph wind gusts will be greatest. Southerly winds will remain strong into the evening and overnight. Issued a Red Flag Warning for most of western and north central Nebraska with the exception of the far northern portion of the forecast area, fire weather zone 208. Have moderate confidence critical conditions persisting into the overnight, thus decided to keep the same timeframe of the Fire Weather Watch for the upgrade to Red Flag Warning, running the RFW into a portion of the overnight, ending at 1AM CT. The main reason for this is although we will have a southerly wind, no moisture advection is expected thorugh the day, thus keeping the persistent dry conditions well into the evening hours. Min RH will drop into the teens and expect overnight recovery to remain poor. There may be a need to extend the RFW later into the overnight/early Thursday morning, however confidence is low at this time in the strong winds remaining past 1AM CT, largely dependent on the timing of the sfc low, will have to monitor thorugh the day if extending the RFW is warranted.

As for Thursday, near critical fire weather conditions will be possible as the upper level ridge has a subtle breakdown with a closed low over Canada and a trof moving over the High Plains region. Ahead of the trof temperatures will warm well into the upper 80s to low 90s across southwest Nebraska into the southern Sandhills. Min RH will drop below 15 percent across the Sandhills into western Nebraska. Winds will be sustained around 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 30 mph or greater across far western Nebraska. Fire weather headlines may be needed for Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

By Friday morning, the upper level low is expected to be over eastern Manitoba, bringing a more zonal flow aloft across western Nebraska. Throughout the day, an upper level trough is expected to develop across the Pacific Northwest, eventually tracking across the northern Plains this weekend. As warm 850 mb temperatures remain over the region, expect highs to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s across western and north central Nebraska. Humidity remains quite poor behind the dry line, with afternoon humidity values as low as 10 to 15 percent across most of the region. Though conditions are hot and dry, will continue to keep an eye on winds for Friday afternoon to determine the fire weather threat. For now, winds appear to remain just below critical fire weather thresholds, but if stronger downslope flow develops, the fire weather threat may continue again on Friday. Given how conditional this is, believe that at least elevated to near critical conditions will be possible on Friday, but will be keeping a close eye to see if critical concerns are reached Friday afternoon.

Saturday, the upper level trough is expected to track across the northern Plains, bringing a surface system across the Plains. There is still some uncertainty in how deep the trough digs across the western United States, which affects the placement of the surface low. This system brings our next best chances for rainfall across portions of the region, but again, uncertainty remains in the track and timing. Given the latest forecast, expecting temperatures to climb again to well above seasonal with highs in the 80s to low 90s. By Saturday evening, expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region. Latest guidance suggests the higher instability will remain further east of the region, which may limit severe concerns Saturday night, but again, with the amount uncertainty in the track of the trough and low, confidence is expected to increase as we get closer to Saturday.

A cold front is expected to track across the region on Sunday, bringing better chances for showers and thunderstorms given the forcing. Ahead of the cold front, guidance suggests afternoon CAPE may reach into the 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg range, with around 50 knots deep layer shear. This environment looks favorable for more organized thunderstorm development along the front, which may pose a better threat for severe weather. For what it is worth, SPC highlights portions of the region, mostly along and south of an Imperial to Broken Bow line, under a 15 percent chance for severe weather Sunday afternoon. While the exact severe threats are more uncertain at this time, given questions in the placement of the larger scale forcing, it certainly appears that the environment will be supportive of organized convection Sunday afternoon. As with rain chances Saturday, expect confidence to increase as we get closer to the weekend, and models come into better agreement on the track of the upper level trough and surface low.

With the trough in place early week, precipitation chances may linger into Monday afternoon, with additional chances for showers. Temperatures are also expected to be on the cooler side, but still a fair amount of spread in ensemble data. For now, expecting more seasonal temperatures, which are generally in the lower 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. The main aviation concerns will be the strong and gusty southerly winds throughout the day and overnight. Gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected at area terminals, with gusts up to 40 knots across the Sandhills and Panhandle this afternoon. By evening, the strong gusts are expected to persist, with even stronger winds aloft, leading to widespread LLWS concerns through the night. Though cloud cover is expected to track in late this evening, no impacts are expected to ceilings at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon, with a Red Flag Warning in effect. Temperatures are expected to be above average this afternoon, with highs in the 80s. Afternoon humidity values drop into the 15 to 20 percent range across most of the region, with strong southerly wind gusts this afternoon. Gusts this afternoon could reach up to 45 mph, especially across the Sandhills and Panhandle. With gusty conditions expected to last into the night, critical fire weather conditions are expected to last until around 1 AM CDT. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a low level jet develops across the central Plains, which is expected to bring better moisture into the region. The question remains how much moisture recovery is expected Wednesday night. In fact, some areas across the region may see poor recovery, with humidity reaching around 50 percent.

Thursday, a dry line tracks across western Nebraska, bringing very dry air across portions of the region, mostly areas along and west of Highway 83. Afternoon humidity behind the dry line may drop as low as 10 to 15 percent. Highs again remain warm, breaking into the upper 80s to lower 90s. With gusty winds persisting, expecting at least near critical fire weather conditions, with the possibility of critical conditions Thursday afternoon. Given that some overlap is expected of low humidity and gusty winds, may need additional fire weather headlines Thursday afternoon.

Fire weather concerns become less certain Friday into the weekend. For Friday, again expecting warm and dry conditions across the region, with winds remaining just below critical thresholds. However, if winds increase given expected downslope flow, then fire weather concerns may yet again return on Friday. As for the weekend, Saturday looks to be the only day of concern, as a surface system approaches. Before the system's arrival, warm, dry, and windy conditions may occur across western Nebraska, potentially bringing additional concerns. However, there is lower confidence given some question in the timing and location of this system. By Saturday night, precipitation chances increase into early next week, which should lower fire weather concerns.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-209-210-219.