textproduct: North Platte

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A weak disturbance will move through the region this afternoon into the evening. A slight increase in low-level moisture and surface convergence will support continued scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development, especially across western into southwest Nebraska. Models indicate meager elevated CAPE in the 100-400 J/kg range which should be sufficient for thunderstorm development. While deep layer shear is relatively strong, the lack of instability should limit any severe potential. While the severe threat is low, the threat for lightning remains high, including the potential for some dry lightning. In terms of QPF, the HREF 50th percentile suggests amounts ranging from 0.05 to 0.20 inches, mainly from the North Platte area into southwest Nebraska, with the higher end of this range across the far southwest portion of the CWA. HREF probabilities indicate a 40-60 percent chance of amounts exceeding 0.15 inches overnight. The NBM is somewhat more aggressive, with probabilities of exceeding 0.25 inches approaching 50 percent near Imperial and areas south and west. Confidence is moderate that localized amounts of 0.10 to 0.15 inches will occur, with isolated totals approaching one-quarter inch, though coverage will remain spotty.

Cloud cover will persist tonight into Thursday morning, and combined with higher humidity, will keep lows in the 30s. A cold front will move into north-central Nebraska, maintaining rain chances overnight, particularly across southwest Nebraska and along and south of the I-80 corridor. Temperatures are expected to remain above freezing in these areas, so no snow is anticipated, though light flurries cannot be ruled out. Precipitation will remain light, and no impacts are expected through Thursday morning.

On Thursday, a shortwave will track near or just south of the region, increasing lift and mid-level frontogenesis. This will support additional scattered precipitation, mainly across the southern portions of the area. However, if the cold front shifts farther south into northern Kansas, the better moisture and lift may remain south of the forecast area, suggesting POPs may be slightly overdone. Highs will range from the mid 50s to low 60s, with north winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph. Fire weather concerns should remain low due to recent rainfall and relative humidity values above 25 percent. High pressure will build into the region Thursday night into Friday morning, leading to clearing skies and calmer conditions. Lows will fall in the upper 20s area wide. By Friday, a building upper-level ridge will promote warm air advection and drier conditions, with highs rising into the low to mid 60s. Winds will remain light from the north at 5 to 10 mph, keeping fire concerns low.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Heading into the weekend, upper-level ridging will continue to build across the region, supporting a warming trend with highs reaching the low to mid 70s into early next week. Along with the warmer temperatures, relative humidity values will fall, with afternoon minimums in the upper teens to low 20s. Winds are expected to increase Sunday into early next week. Despite recent wetting rainfall, drying fuels combined with lower humidity and increasing winds may allow for fire weather concerns to reemerge, particularly across western Nebraska. This will continued to be monitored over the coming days.

The pattern becomes more unsettled late in the weekend into next week as precipitation chances return. The first shortwave is expected to track along the western periphery of a broader longwave trough to the east, potentially bringing light precipitation to portions of the area Sunday night into Monday. However, current model guidance suggests limited moisture and forcing, and confidence in coverage and amounts at this current time remains low.

Attention then turns to a second, more substantial system moving into the southwestern United States. This system will contribute to the breakdown of the upper-level ridge, resulting in southwest flow aloft across the central United States. Currently, this southern stream system is forecast to eject into the Plains sometime Tuesday or Wednesday, and it may support a swath of heavier precipitation across the region. Model guidance continues to show considerable spread in both timing and placement, so confidence remains low at this range. However, this system likely will be the next opportunity for meaningful precipitation across the forecast area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across southwest Nebraska this afternoon with some isolated activity elsewhere. Surface winds will generally be light but do increase for a time across north central Nebraska into the 10-15 kt range this afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through tonight and into Thursday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.