textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions continue for the first half of the week with temperatures returning to above normal values by Tuesday.

- A passing cool front Wednesday will bring a slight cooldown and the potential for measurable rain (20-50%) across northern Nebraska.

- Above normal temperatures with gusty downsloping winds will support at least elevated if not near-critical fire conditions Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Early this afternoon, clear skies revealed lingering snowpack across the area. As surface high pressure crosses the Northern Plains, a backdoor cool front will prolong cold air advection (CAA) across central and eastern Nebraska. The combination of these two have held temperatures in check with early afternoon readings in the lower 20s to middle 30s northeast to southwest. Enhanced northwesterly mid- level flow was helping to draw in some increasing high level clouds with deep troughing to the east and a building ridge to the west.

For tonight, surface high pressure will extend south into eastern Nebraska tonight with modest surface height rises expected across our eastern zones. As mid-level dry air overspreads these areas and winds at the surface remain light and variable, expecting overnight lows to fall. The low temperature forecast was lowered tonight as a result with values falling to near 0F long and east of Highway 183 but middle single digits to lower teens as you get further west. While winds are light, wind chills could still manage to fall into the middle teens below zero across central Nebraska. Use caution if you'll be outdoors for an extended period or heading out early Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Monday...Ridging aloft should peak early Monday as the axis sets up across the Great Basin. Ridging will be moderately strong as NAEFS guidance highlights h5 heights exceeding the 90th Percentile for much of the central and southern High Plains. Southwesterly winds will increase during the day as lee troughing develops and surface high pressure gradually settles east. Temperatures should rebound nicely as a result in snow-free areas. This amounts to our far western and southwestern zones where forecast highs should climb into the middle to upper 50s. Elsewhere, snowpack will once again hold things back with forecast highs only reaching the 30s/40s.

Tuesday/Wednesday...back-to-back passing systems will bring slight changes to the weather, including the potential for light rainfall on Wednesday. Ridging will be shunted southwest as the first of two shortwave troughs dive southeast out of Canada into the upper Mississippi Valley. This will result in a surface trough pushing off the higher terrain and more westerly surface flow developing in its wake. Though the influence of upper ridging will be on the decline, the thermal ridge will remain anchored across the Central Rockies and help boost high temperatures further. The going forecast calls for highs nearing 20F above normal, humidity minimums in the upper teens, and gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range...all of which combine to promote elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions. A second shortwave trough will dive across the Northern Rockies and eject onto the Central Plains on Wednesday. The trend with this second feature has been a later arrival and forecast highs for Wednesday trending up as a result. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index paints positive anomalies for daytime highs across our southwest with current forecast highs below the 25th Percentile in NBM guidance. This suggests possible increases in temperatures and could result in greater fire weather concerns. Day-over-day NBM output has shown approximately 10F increases in all inner-quartile values and current forecast highs range from the low 70s in the south to middle 50s in the north. While temperatures have increased, low-level moisture will as well and this will limit humidity minimums to 20 percent or greater thus limiting fire weather concerns somewhat. Precipitation potential arrives later in the day across the north. NBM probabilities of seeing measurable rain (0.01" or more) top out around 30-50% for areas north of Highway 2 during the afternoon hours. Individual EPS/GEFS probabilities are much more muted, with < 20% of seeing measurable moisture anywhere in the local area. Still though, deterministic guidance appears more bullish with NAM/GFS/ECMWF all hinting at more impressive rainfall amounts along the Nebraska/South Dakota border during the afternoon. This discrepancy may lie with ensemble output smoothing out convective elements. Deterministic solutions show non-zero instability and the potential for the first thunder of the season for a select few. Confidence in this is quite low so will omit any thunder mention from the forecast at this time. All said, details remain murky so continue to check later forecasts. Any precipitation should be out of the area by late Wednesday evening with dry conditions for the remainder of the overnight.

Thursday/Friday...moderate ridging will remain anchored across the West Coast starting Thursday as troughing departs to the east across the Great Lakes. Persistent northwesterly flow early on will gradually transition to more zonal as troughing departs the eastern CONUS. The result will be persistent and even strengthening downslope flow for Thursday into Friday. Similar to Wednesday, the current forecast highs fall below the NBM 25th Percentile and even below raw MEX guidance. Overall the setup favors overachieving temperatures so I anticipate these to climb in the coming days should the current outlook hold. As h7 flow becomes more zonal, dry air originating from the Great Basin will cross the Laramie Range and work downslope into our western zones. Dew points appear likely to fall into the teens and with current forecast highs, combine to yield humidity minimums in the teens each day. The NBM seems bullish on wind potential with 60% and 80% probabilities of exceeding 40 mph gusts in our western zones Thursday and Friday respectively. As it stands now, near-critical and critical conditions are expected and should these values hold headlines may be necessary later on.

The weekend and beyond...considerable uncertainty exists for the weekend into early next week. Low amplitude longwave troughing will dominate the northern CONUS as a more pronounced shortwave ducks under the Hudson Bay by early Saturday. Zonal flow appears likely to set up across much of the central CONUS during the day Saturday with influence from the Canadian troughing varying between GFS/ECMWF/GEM solutions. Overall, the pattern seems to suggest ridging over the Gulf of Alaska which usually winds up with cooler temperatures across the central and northern Plains. NBM spread remains large, with 25th to 75th percentile differences still exceeding 35F for many western Nebraska sites. While the ECMWF/GEM show a moderately strong high pressure over North Dakota sometime late weekend, the GFS is much further north and east. The result is the latter being much warmer and the formers being much colder. Given the GFS and it's respective ensemble being outliers at this point, I am inclined to put more confidence in the ECMWF/GEM solutions. This suggests much colder air working in sometime over the weekend with more precise timing yet to be determined. This colder air may settle into the area for the start of the following week before conditions moderate again. At this time, uncertainties remain significant so large variability in later forecasts remains likely.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will remain through the forecast period. Winds will remain light and variable through the day, shifting southeasterly early Monday morning. By midday Monday there will be an increase in winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Skies will generally by clear after some scattered high clouds move out of the region this evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.