textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are again likely across much of west and central Nebraska on Wednesday.

- A weak disturbance arrives Thursday night into Friday, bringing with it cooler air and the potential for light wintry precipitation.

- Beyond this weekend, temperatures return to well above-normal values with dry conditions favored.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 354 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery shows expansive cloud cover across the Pacific Northwest as a northern stream jet noses into the region. Beneath the zonal flow, a more pronounced upper-level low sits off the southern California coast. This feature will play a role in the local weather by late week. Currently, it resides under zonal flow with mild low to mid-level air in place. Afternoon upper-air RAOB from LBF returned a Precipitable Water (PWAT) value of 0.21" which is near the 25th percentile for the calendar day according to SPC Sounding Climatology. Meanwhile the observed h85 temperature of 4.8C was closer to the 75th percentile in the same climatology. This paints another dry, mild day across the region which has sparked fire weather concerns. Afternoon highs have ranged from the lower 50s for north central Nebraska to the lower 60s in the southwest and southern Panhandle with westerly winds gusting 30 to 40 mph in the same areas.

Tonight...steady westerly winds will gradually translate further north into the Sandhills. A weak surface trough will pass west to east and winds will increase behind this feature. Have boosted winds overnight as a result with HREF probabilities of exceeding 25 mph gusts remaining in the 60-90% range north of the Platte River Valley. With the persistent winds and dry air, have also boosted overnight low temperatures across the aforementioned areas. Statistical guidance, namely the MAV with the MET close behind, paints many locations failing to reaching the freezing mark. Leaned on these with a RAPTL blend to generate lows ranging from the middle 30s over the central Sandhills to middle 20s further southwest. These lows will near 15-25F above normal for early January and combine to limited humidity recovery. The going forecast is limited to 50-60% though some short-term guidance suggests this is still optimistic. Regardless, the message will be continued fire concerns even for the overnight hours.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...another day of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions appears likely for much of western and central Nebraska. Similar to Tuesday, gusty west winds with dry air crossing the Rockies will support well above-normal temperatures and low afternoon humidities. For afternoon highs, relied heavily on MET/MAV guidance with a slight RAPTL blend which paints fairly widespread 60s for all western and central Nebraska sites. This seems reasonable given similar h85 temperatures day-over-day and strong downsloping west winds. See little reason we can't add at least 2-4F to all sites across the area from Tuesday's highs. With dew points once again likely to settle in the upper teens to lower 20s, believe humidity minimums are set to fall below 25% and perhaps closer to 15% across our southwest. Winds will again be strong across the Sandhills where BUFKIT soundings suggest efficient momentum transfers should equal 25 to 35 mph gusts. Confidence in reaching sub 15% humidity and 25+ mph gusts for 3 hours is low and precludes headlines at this time, but, any fire starts will likely become difficult to contain along the north of the Platte Valley. Winds quickly drop off further south as weak high pressure sets up over northwest Kansas. An approaching cool front later Wednesday night will introduce northerly winds and an influx of cooler air as another weak high pressure noses into the area. The result is lows falling into the 20s for much of the Sandhills and lower 30s south and east. This along with weakening winds should allow fire concerns to end swiftly late in the evening.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 354 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Thursday/Friday...more active weather arrives for the end of the week. That said, precipitation potential remains limited. Aforementioned upper-level low off the West Coast will phase into the flow and a more pronounced northern stream trough tracks into the Pacific Northwest by early Thursday. This will result in a deepening long-wave trough over the Great Basin and the lead wave lifting north and east out of the Southern Rockies and into the Central Plains. As of now, the greatest upper-level dynamics appears likely to remain well south and east of the local area. Similarly, ensembles paint the central low pressure tracking near a Dodge City to Wichita to Kansas City line. This keeps much of the greatest precipitation potential confined to south central into southeastern Nebraska, similar to what is being advertised by EPS/GEFS probabilities. Across our western zones, northerly flow off the Cheyenne Ridge may support some light precipitation with EPS/NAM deterministic solutions being the most optimistic on this. While the forecast contains widespread Chance PoPs, QPF is much more limited with only a few hundredths in the forecast for areas south of Interstate 80. Though temperatures will be on the cooler side, they remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s during the day. This should limit wintry impacts somewhat and confine most snowfall potential to the overnight and early morning hours on Friday. Snowfall amounts up to 1" are possible in our far southwest and overall this is in good agreement with most deterministic solutions as well as probabilistic guidance where NBM suggests up to 60% potential for exceeding 1" of snow for the event.

Saturday and beyond...as the longwave trough continues to track east into the central CONUS, the trailing shortwave will lift north and east, phasing with a diving shortwave out of southern Canada. The result will be a deepening upper-level low taking aim on the Great Lakes. Stronger lift to our east with mid-level dry air filtering in will likely prevent greater precipitation potential. The northerly flow will likely reinforce cooler air though and keep us on the cooler side for an additional day Saturday. Amplified ridging with strong height rises immediately following arrive for early next week and should bolster temperatures quickly. Highs return to the upper 40s/lower 50s as a result, or nearly 15-20F above normal for mid- January. With the expected dry conditions, fire concerns will again be the primary concern but certainty and magnitude of impacts will largely hinge on precise temperatures and resultant moisture from Thursday/Friday. Either way, temperatures through the middle of the month favor above normal values with the overall pattern suggesting dry conditions persist. This is largely in-line with the latest Climate Prediction Center Outlooks.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 533 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska overnight through tomorrow evening. The main aviation concerns overnight will be a swath of LLWS across most of western and north central Nebraska, including portions of southwest Nebraska. Westerly winds aloft are expected to increase near midnight, lasting through mid morning. By mid morning, some of the stronger winds aloft begin to mix to the surface, creating gusty westerly surface winds. Winds begin to subside by the evening, however, cloud cover begins to track across western Nebraska ahead of an approaching surface system.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.