textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather expected this weekend, with increasing temperatures both days. By Sunday, a combination of well above average temperatures, gusty westerly winds, and low relative humidity may bring a return of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns.

- Above average temperatures persist into early next week, with fire weather threats continuing across the area.

- Light rain and snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday. At this time, any accumulations are expected to remain light.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

An upper level trough to the west continues to deepen, and is expected to become a cut off low later this afternoon. As this occurs, the cut off upper level low remains across the Desert Southwest, with the remaining upper level trough in the northern jet stream tracking off to the east. While northerly flow aloft persists this morning into the afternoon, by the evening, expecting that some subtle ridging begins to build across western Nebraska.

As for highs today, with mostly clear skies across the region and westerly winds from downsloping, expecting fairly widespread highs in the 50s. These temperatures will help support melting of snow and ice from yesterday's system. Overnight, mostly clear skies continue, along with westerly winds, keeping overnight lows slightly warmer. Expecting that overnight lows remain in the low to mid 30s, with some areas hovering around freezing. Will need to keep an eye on wet surfaces from snow and ice melt, as lows around and just below freezing may cause some brief slippery spots.

The subtle upper level ridge quickly diminishes on Sunday, with the upper level pattern expected to transition to a zonal flow aloft. The core of the stronger winds remains north of the region, mostly across the Dakotas. At the surface, westerly downslope flow continues, bringing a return of well above average temperatures across the region. By Sunday afternoon, expecting most of the area to see highs in the 60s, with some areas reaching into the low 70s. With the return of these warmer temperatures, expect to see relative humidity values dropping around 20 percent or lower Sunday afternoon. Sustained westerly winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 35 mph at times, combined with the well above average temperatures and low relative humidity may usher in a return of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon.

Westerly winds persist Sunday night, which will again continue to keep overnight lows on the warmer side. For Sunday night, expecting lows to remain in the mid 30s to lower 40s across most of the region. The generally mild overnight lows will support yet another warming trend as we head into the early work week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Zonal flow persists as we head into early next week, with above average temperatures continuing into Monday. This is due to continued downslope flow, which helps to boost highs into the 70s across much of western and southwest Nebraska. Current forecasted highs continue to sit near the lower end of the guidance envelope (below 25th percentile), and may need to be adjusted upwards towards the upper 70s to low 80s. Should the warmer temperatures verify, critical relative humidity values would be expected across much of the area. Combine this with gusty west winds, and concerns are increasing for near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. Trends will need to be monitored very closely for potential fire weather headlines as we head into early next week.

By Tuesday morning, an upper level trough will cross the Rockies and across the northern Plains by Tuesday night. At the surface, a surface low will eject east across western Nebraska early Tuesday morning. This will drag a cold front through the area by late morning. Light precipitation is possible in the wake of this front, with p-type being driven by the diurnal cycle. NBM probabilities of any precipitation (>0.01") have crept up to as highs as 40-60% for Tuesday/Wednesday, though probabilities of >0.10" remain 20% or less. At this time, this points to a threat for light precipitation amounts, and any impacts look limited at this time. Confidence wanes into late week, though above average temperatures and fire concerns look to return to the area again.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow morning across western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain northwest through late morning, at 10 to 15kts. Winds then become westerly this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25kts expected for all terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.