textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple rounds of thunderstorms are possible on Thursday for portions of western and central Nebraska, with a lower confidence/higher event ceiling severe weather setup for the afternoon and evening where the SPC has introduced a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)

- Warmer temperatures arrive for Friday and Saturday with highs climbing to the middle 90s and low 100s for many by the start of the weekend.

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances heading into the weekend through early next week but severe weather potential remains uncertain.

UPDATE

Issued at 749 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Update to include areas of fog for Deuel, Keith, Perkins and Chase County. Visibilites are as low as 1/4 at Imperial and Grant. Expect a gradual improvement through 8am MDT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Early this morning, generally tranquil conditions were noted across the region. Modest high pressure continued to shift south with veering flow on the back side of this feature reintroducing weak warm/moisture advection to the area. Temperatures were slowly decreasing with expansive low 60s central and east and values remaining in the upper 60s in our far west. Further decreases are probable with a few locations likely managing to reach the upper 50s.

Thursday Morning...departing high pressure will allow south to southwesterly flow to become reestablished across our central and western zones just prior to dawn. While not overly strong, some warm air/moisture advection should manage to lead to some low-end precipitation chances along a north-south oriented line as we approach dawn. Short-term guidance shows adequate isentropic lift around the 310K surface within a moist layer where mixing ratios are progged to exceed 7 g/kg. Forecast soundings show a saturated layer and limited elevated instability rooted around 2km AGL. Instability is largely limited with MUCAPE generally at or below 500 j/kg with the exception being areas along and south of the Platte Valley who may manage to exceed 1000 j/kg. This will likely to lead to isolated to widely scattered general thunderstorms favored to form invof the Highway 83 corridor. No severe weather is expected and the prospect for heavy rain appears to be limited as well. Lift should wane quickly by mid-late morning and should allow a return to mostly dry conditions for much of the area.

Thursday Afternoon/Evening...attention quickly turns to the prospect of thunderstorms to move into the area from the north, with severe weather possible. The SPC has introduced a Slight Risk stretching from the NE/SD border south through the NE/KS border roughly between the Highway 61 and 183 corridors. Southerly flow will reinforce low- level moisture with a slight boost to middle 60s within a narrow plume of strongest fetch. Temperatures will see a slight bump as upper ridge axis approaches from the west and h85 temperatures see a slight 1-3C increase from 24 hours prior with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Beneath steepening lapse rates, moderate to strong destabilization should occur this afternoon within a strongly sheared environment with 0-6km BWD values exceeding 40 knots. Storms should develop this afternoon off the lee of the Black Hills where southeasterly flow should promote orographic lift. Though with the approach of the h5 ridge axis, mid-level height rises will be detrimental to initial CI attempts but sustained upslope flow should be able to overcome this. At the same time, a modest h7 wave should arrive into western South Dakota/Nebraska and the additional support from this feature will help provide forcing for ascent to allow for thunderstorm development. HREF QPF probabilities have shown a fairly substantial increase from prior runs for much of the afternoon hours. Activity should be ongoing in at least an isolated coverage by mid-afternoon with increasing coverage by late afternoon/early evening as storms begin to track more south-southeast into an increasing low-level jet. The aforementioned strongly sheared/moderate to strongly unstable environment will be more than supportive of organized convection including multiple supercells. Forecast hodographs show modest low-level curvature but largely speed shear promoting long/straight wind profiles in the 1-7km layer. CAPE distribution through the thermal profile shows fat instability aloft as LI values approach minus 7-9C. While instability appears to be fairly high below the freezing level, the combination of supercell structures, robust instability, and a highly sheared environment suggests large to very large hail will be possible. While far from the most impressive inverted-v profile, high DCAPE (exceeding 1000 j/kg) and max 0-3km delta theta-e values support a damaging wind potential as well. Congealing cold pools should also support upscale growth in time and increasing damaging wind potential into the evening hours. As the LLJ increases into the evening, forecast hodographs enlarge and could potentially lead to a non-zero tornado threat as well but competing storms as they grow upscale casts some doubt on this potential. The Wednesday evening HRRR run (00z) appears to highlight the worst case scenario for the event: multiple southward diving supercells erupting by 21-23z (4- 6pm CDT) with multiple long track simulated updraft helicity swaths crossing the Sandhills. This speaks to the potential ceiling for the event but what actually happens is likely to fall short of this output. HREF probabilities fall off quickly by Midnight CDT and dry conditions are largely expected to return by early Friday morning.

Friday/Friday Night...upstream ridge axis should spill onto the Plains by early Friday. Broad height falls will overspread the area as upper-level moisture crosses the central/northern Rockies. Increasingly cloudy skies will be the result with modest precipitation potential following for the late afternoon and evening. A dryline feature will set up across the Nebraska Panhandle and may provide a focus for more robust thunderstorm development later in the day. Moderate to strong instability is likely to develop as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s east to middle 90s west. Shear will again be supportive of organized convection but weak convergence along this boundary to the west as well as capping lingering through the day casts some doubt on storm development and maintenance. Any LLJ support will favor areas to the north and should help sustain activity closer to I-90 crossing South Dakota. Have kept Slight Chance (< 25%) PoPs for the early evening but these may need refined with later forecasts. The gusty winds should keep things mild Friday night and low temperatures will likely hold in the 70s for central Nebraska with middle 60s further west.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Saturday, the upper-level ridge will move eastward into north Texas, as an upper trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. This will bring a west-southwesterly flow aloft and a downsloping southwesterly surface wind and above normal temperatures. Saturday will be the warmest day, reaching the mid 90s west, with upper 90s near 100 across the southwest. Dry conditions expected during the day. With a southwest wind 10 to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph at times across the western Sandhills along with afternoon humidity falling to as low as 20 to 25 percent, elevated fire weather conditions are expected mainly west of Highway 61 Saturday afternoon. A weak cold frontal passage Saturday night, with low chances for showers/storms. Sunday, highs slightly cooler behind the front in the upper 80s, with 90 to 95 southwest. The surface front is forecast to extend from southwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska. Low chances again for showers/storms Sunday night, mainly across the west and south.

A longwave trough moving through the West Coast of the U.S. into the interior West and upper ridge extending across the Southern Plains and southeast U.S. will bring an increased southwesterly flow aloft to the region Monday through Wednesday. A surface front may remain stalled out across southwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska Monday and Tuesday, providing a better chance for showers and storms Monday night, and again Tuesday night. High temperatures moderate to 85 to 90. By Wednesday, a cold front and shortwave trough is forecast to move east across the Northern and Central Plains, with at least a slight chance for showers/storms.

Despite daily precipitation chances, meaningful rainfall is not expected Saturday through Monday morning. NBM 48 hour probabilities for at least 0.25" ending Monday morning is only 5 to 15 percent. Probabilities increase to 25 to 35 percent area wide for the 48 hour period ending Wednesday morning, when wetting rains appear more promising.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Guidance is indicating thunderstorms may initiate across northern Nebraska after 21Z with a southward development into the evening hours. While confidence is only average in location and timing, have included VCTS at KVTN 22Z until 02Z. At KLBF, VCTS 01Z-06Z, with a PROB30 for 2SM TSRA SCT035 BKN080CB. With any thunderstorms, gusty and erratic winds, and brief periods of low visibility from thunderstorms may occur. Further refinement in timing will be evaluated in upcoming TAF forecasts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.