textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog is expected this morning across much of southwest and central Nebraska. Visibilities of one-quarter mile or less is expected for portions of the area.

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms may bring a threat for locally heavy rainfall across portions of western and northern Nebraska through tonight. A strong to briefly severe storm cannot be ruled out.

- An unsettled period is expected through the weekend. The best chance for rainfall appears to be Saturday night. Additional chances for showers will be possible Sunday into Monday. Cool temperatures, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Currently, clouds continue to expand across much of western and central Nebraska, leading to temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Further north, partly to mostly clear skies have allowed for temperatures to fall into the upper 40s to low 50s across northern Nebraska.

For today, expect a cloudy start to the day, with the widespread cloud cover persisting into the early afternoon across much of western and north central Nebraska. Some forecast soundings also suggest some threat for drizzle through the morning hours as well, within broad low-level isentropic ascent. This will keep temperatures in the 50s for much of the morning hours, with portions of western Nebraska finally warming as clouds clear after Noon CDT. East of HWY 83, clouds may linger into the late afternoon and highs here will struggle to climb out of the upper 60s to low 70s. South winds are also expected to strengthen tomorrow afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour likely west of Highway 83 today.

Attention then turns to the potential for locally heavy rainfall and a threat for strong to severe storms on Thursday. Thunderstorms may be ongoing early Thursday morning, in association with a broad southerly low-level jet across northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska. This convection will lift north across the area through the late morning hours, with a brief lull in any thunderstorms for early to mid-afternoon. Surface low pressure then begins to deepen through the afternoon hours across northeastern Colorado, with an associated warm front lifting towards southwest Nebraska. The exact placement of this boundary remains uncertain for now, and will have drastic impacts on the threat for severe weather. The more bullish solutions lift this towards the I-80 corridor by late afternoon, and suggest concerning low-level shear near the boundary. Another point of uncertainty is how much instability can develop across western and southwest Nebraska, with varying solutions across the 00Z guidance suite. That said, of guidance members that do develop adequate instability far enough west into western Nebraska, they do suggest a threat for a few severe storms, likely supercellular in nature. Any supercells that develop near the boundary would feasibly pose a risk for all severe hazards, though confidence in this remains very low. Trends will need to be monitored very closely with respect to this.

Another threat looks to be locally heavy rainfall, as thunderstorm coverage increases into Thursday night behind a cold front as the aforementioned surface low begins to slowly eject east into far northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska. The environment looks to be very conducive for efficient rainfall processes, with PWAT values nearing 1.75-2.0", or near climo maximums for mid-September. Forecast soundings suggest deep warm cloud depth and long, skinny CAPE, further supporting a threat for locally heavy rainfall. High- res guidance suggests the potential for 1-2"+ in thunderstorms and localized amounts exceeding 3" cannot be ruled out where convection trains. Though flash flood guidance remains rather high across much of the area, trends will continue to be monitored closely.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas of IFR and perhaps LIFR will occur across southwest into central Nebraska this morning. These conditions should improve by late morning. Otherwise scattered late afternoon thunderstorms are expected across western and northern Nebraska. These will become more numerous, especially across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska this evening.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas of IFR and LIFR will occur across southwest into central Nebraska this morning. These conditions should improve by late morning. Otherwise scattered late afternoon thunderstorms are expected across western and northern Nebraska. These will become more numerous, especially across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska this evening. Surface winds will become southeast at 10-20 kts by late morning into this evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ007-009-010-025>029-035>038-056>059-069>071.