textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible (15-25%) across portions of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills this afternoon and evening. Though severe weather is not expected, a few storms may produce gusty winds.

- A threat for strong to severe storms returns Sunday afternoon and evening, primarily for areas near and east of Highway 83. Hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats.

- Very Warm temperatures heading into Memorial Day with highs in the 90s

- Breezy conditions Monday and Tuesday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Today, surface low pressure will deepen across Wyoming and Colorado, bringing a return of southwesterly winds and modest moisture from the surface to 700mb. Although dewpoints will only range in the upper 30s to lower 40s, steep mid level lapse rates and modest MUCAPE could range as high as 500-750 J/kg across portions of southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. A mid level trough, notable a 500mb, should aid in initiating widely scattered scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon across portions of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Deep layer shear from 20 to 35kts is sufficient for weak, to a few organized updrafts for stronger storms. Inverted- v sounding support gusty winds as the primary threat. Any showers or storms will quickly diminish after sunset.

Tonight, a fairly strong H85 thermal ridge (up to 20C) will develop over western Nebraska, leading to a strong inversion. A light south to southwest wind in the evening will increase to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Lows from the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday, much warmer with west to southwest winds. Highs 85 to 90. A threat for a few strong to severe storms by late afternoon. A surface trough may extend from near North Platte through Bassett and Butte. 30 to 35kts of deep layer shear is shown to be closely perpendicular to the surface boundary. MUCAPEs should reach 1500- 2000 J/kg across the southeastern zones. A few strong to severe storms are possible late afternoon into early evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. SPC outlook for Sunday has a Marginal Risk of severe storms east of the surface trough. The location of the surface trough remains somewhat uncertain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 221 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The upper level ridge for early in the week has become a little more subtle with the latest model runs but still have confidence that even with the subtle ridge will see a decent southerly flow aiding in WAA across the region. 850 temps will be quite warm around 20 to 25 degrees, with the cooler model being the EC. Expect to have good mixing on Monday to tap into the warm air aloft and still continue to have moderate confidence in highs reaching the near or to 90 degrees, although probs are low in seeing temperatures reaching beyond the 90 degree mark, leading to lower confidence in trending to the warmer models at this time. Well mixed environment will also lead to breezy winds in the afternoon as wind speeds aloft mix to the sfc this will lead to winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Will need to monitor for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns, although we did see a decent amount of rainfall Friday across some locations, mainly across southwest Nebraska into portions of central Nebraska where some areas saw 0.50" to 1", there were still many locations that received 0.25" or less, especially across the northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska.

Could see even stronger winds for Tuesday with sustained winds expected around 15 to 20 mph. Strongest winds will be out across western Nebraska. Bufkit soundings across the western CWA show decent strong winds aloft around 30kts, should see a mix to the sfc to near 30 to 35 mph. For the start of the week conditions will generally stay dry through mid-week then a more active pattern with several disturbances moving through the area bringing precipitation chances daily through Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light overnight, light and variable across the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. Winds will be out of the west around 5 to 10 kts across the northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska. By tomorrow evening winds will shift to the south around 5 to 10 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.