textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist across north central Nebraska this morning into the afternoon. This will mainly be areas east of Highway 83. While severe weather is not expected, locally heavy rainfall is possible.

- Periodic disturbances will cross an upper level ridge, leading to near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Saturday.

- Ridging will amplify across the western CONUS middle to the end of the week, allowing cooler air to back into eastern and northeastern portions of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms driven by the low level jet overnight will continue to persist through the morning across portions of western and north central Nebraska, with the bulk of precipitation remaining east of Highway 83. This southerly to southeasterly push from the low level jet will help maintain dewpoints in the 60s across the region, continuing to provide ample surface moisture. Additionally, seeing some moisture advection aloft maintaining fairly moist profiles through the atmosphere. CAM guidance suggests PWAT values today around 1.5 inches, which is not too far off the 00z LBF sounding showing 1.39 inches from yesterday evening. This abundance of moisture will support a risk for locally heavy rainfall, as well as continued showers and thunderstorms. By the afternoon, as an upper level shortwave tracks across western South Dakota, expecting a weak boundary to track across the region. Guidance highlights this best with a wind shift around 850 mb coinciding with a theta-e gradient at the surface. This should be just sufficient enough to continue showers and thunderstorms across eastern portions of the region this afternoon, mainly east of Highway 83 and most likely even east of Highway 183 in north central Nebraska. With this relatively persistent signal for rain, as well as potential for heavy rainfall at times, WPC has put eastern portions of the CWA under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. With this persistent rain and cloud cover, will be very hard to build any meaningful instability across eastern portions of the region, so believe the severe weather risk will remain low today. Behind the precipitation, while some instability may build, expecting more stable conditions in the environment which will likely limit shower and thunderstorm potential.

Additional low level jet forcing Sunday night may bring even more showers and thunderstorms across portions of north central Nebraska, again remaining mostly east of the Highway 183 corridor. Again, not expecting that the environment will be supportive of severe weather, but locally heavy rainfall as well as persistent rainfall will be possible overnight.

As the boundary pushes out of the region, also cutting off the low level jet, expecting a bit of a break in the precipitation Monday morning and afternoon. However, will see the ability for instability to build across the region Monday afternoon, as mostly clear skies are expected, especially for areas west of Highway 83. As like most days in the recent pattern, surface dewpoints remain in the upper 50s to 60s across the region, providing ample low level moisture. By late afternoon, may begin to see a few thunderstorms begin to develop across western Nebraska, and given that instability should build throughout the day combined with stronger upper level support, could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into the evening. Much will depend on the evolving mesoscale environment over the next 24 to 36 hours on how convection plays out. At this time, there does appear to be potential for some large hail and damaging wind gusts, but will continue to refine this forecast as the mesoscale environment changes.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

An upper level trough of low pressure, will traverse south central Canada Monday afternoon into Monday night, forcing a cold front through the forecast area. The latest deterministic NAM12 and GFS solns along with the NBM ensembles indicate a decent chance for showers and thunderstorms across a large portion of the forecast area with the best chances across the west and southwest. The latest NBM ensembles indicate 60 to 70 percent chance of exceeding 0.10" of precipitation Monday night generally west of a line from Gordon to Broken Bow. The NBM forecast for tonight has some high chance and low likely pops in the eastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska Monday night and this looks on track. The upper level low/trough, will track into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night allowing the ridge to amplify across the western CONUS. Northwesterly flow aloft will continue into the end of the week with periodic shortwaves tracking across the central plains. This will lead to daily precipitation chances through the end of the period. Temperatures will be coolest in the east and northeast with daily highs in the lower 80s. Across the eastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska, daily highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 652 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect scattered to broken clouds today with ceilings ranging from 4000 to 10000 FT AGL. Skies will then begin to clear out by late evening. There is a small threat for thunderstorms this evening. However, given the expected isolated coverage and low forecast confidence, will forgo mentioning the threat with this TAF issuance. For the KVTN terminal: Thunderstorms will be possible through 14z this morning. Ceilings will range from 6000 to 10000 FT AGL today scattering out and lifting to 25000 FT AGL this evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.