textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risks for severe weather (level 1 of 5) remain in place for each afternoon/evening Sunday and Monday. The primary concern each day will be damaging wind gusts.

- Precipitation chances begin to decrease after Tuesday night, with little to no precipitation expected mid week into the weekend.

- Upper level ridging will also help keep temperatures above average into the weekend, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Early this morning, multiple residual boundaries from earlier convection were seen across much of western and central Nebraska. The most notable was stretching from southwest Nebraska up through south central Nebraska. Increasing convergence along this feature was promoting scattered convection. Motions largely parallel to this boundary was allowing for training storms and some locally heavy rainfall. While rain rates have largely fallen short of 0.50"/hour, prolonged impacts from these thunderstorms was leading to some 1.00" rainfall amounts. This may continue for another few hours for mainly central Nebraska but severe weather nor any flooding concerns are expected.

Sunday/Sunday Night...any lingering precipitation should depart the local area prior to dawn. This lingering outflow boundary will stall near a MCK to LXN to ODX line and divide much warmer air in southwesterly low-level flow from the greater humidity/weaker mixing environment to the east. With expected highs in the low to middle 90s, the drier air will help quell any heat concerns with heat indices likely to fall short of the ambient air temperatures in the local area. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will allow enhanced mid-level flow will remain in place for much of the region. More pronounced shortwave troughing will lift out of the Pacific Northwest through the day and cross into southern Canada late. While upper-level dynamics will remain well north of the area, enough mid- level convergence should introduce some increasing PoPs later in the day that originates from west of the Continental Divide. Moderate h5 flow will again support adequate deep-layer shear for storm organization. Instability will be fairly meager, largely due to marginal mid-level lapse rates, but damaging wind gusts appear possible with any high based convection that can sustain itself off the higher terrain. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for our western zones and feel this is adequate given low confidence in storm intensity. Relied on HREF guidance for PoPs which peaks around 30% in far southwest Nebraska with a dry forecast for areas north of Highway 2. Any thunderstorm threat should depart by later Sunday night into Monday morning.

Monday/Monday Night...strong low pressure aloft will cross southern Canada with a strong mid-level speed max on the southern periphery of the upper-level low. This will continue to promote adequate winds aloft to allow sufficient deep-layer shear for a strong to severe thunderstorm threat. Broad, low-amplitude troughing will extend south through the Dakotas as surface high pressure settles into South Dakota by early afternoon. Southerly return flow will develop late in the day as a result which will lead to modest moisture advection into central Nebraska heading into the evening. Afternoon highs will see a slight decrease from Sunday, with middle 80s to lower 90s expected across the area. Greater upper-level support will arrive late Monday night as longwave troughing approaches the West Coast and flow amplifies across the central and southern Rockies. Height falls attendant to a shortwave disturbance entering Wyoming will work in towards Midnight and this aligns well with latest NAM12 solution depicting fairly expansive precipitation moving in from the southwest after Midnight. NBM probabilities match this thinking with 12-hour probability for exceeding 0.25" QPF peaking in the 06-18z window Tuesday at or around 25-30% for localized areas west of Highway 83. While details are far from certain, some potential exists for some more widespread wetting rainfall amounts but folks should monitor later forecasts for up-to-date thinking as greater signals appear to remain west of the forecast area. Coincident with the passing shortwave trough axis, precipitation should wane by daybreak and lift up into South Dakota by early in the day on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

An upper level shortwave lifts north on Tuesday, which should allow the ongoing showers and thunderstorms to continue through the morning and into the afternoon. As the upper level shortwave tracks north, also expect a speed max to track through the upper level flow supporting stronger deep layer shear across portions of the region. However, there still remains some uncertainty in how much CAPE will be available given the overnight convection. With this uncertainty, the severe weather risk also remains uncertain, but will continue to keep an eye on forecast trends for Tuesday, especially how the mesoscale environment evolves.

By Wednesday, upper level ridging is expected to amplify across the region, which should limit precipitation chances through the end of the week and into the weekend. In fact, precipitation chances remain relatively sparse outside of a slight chance of showers Wednesday night. Latest ensemble guidance continues to agree with this trend, keeping chances for one tenth of an inch of rain or greater at less than 20 percent into the weekend. This upper level ridging will also help keep temperatures above average through the weekend, with highs mostly in the upper 80s to mid 90s. For reference, our typical highs are around 85 degrees, decreasing to 84 degrees by the weekend. The current forecast highs remain around the 75th to 90th percentile compared to local climatology.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. Winds are expected to remain mostly out of the west. Across portions of the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, gusty winds will be possible through the afternoon, with gusts around 25 knots. By the evening, these winds will mostly calm. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible across southwest Nebraska this evening, though confidence remains low in impacts to KLBF. Otherwise, winds become mostly light and variable, with a slow shift to northerly near the end of the TAF period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.