textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will persist through Friday, with the greatest potential for wetting rainfall across the southern and eastern portions of the area.

- Dry and warmer conditions return Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the low 70s to lower 80s.

- Active weather returns next week with likely chances for showers and some thunderstorms Monday into Monday night. Chances for showers will linger Tuesday into Wednesday with confidence in the timing and duration of the system below average.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

This morning into the afternoon today, a southern-stream upper-level disturbance is currently located near Baja California and is evident on water-vapor satellite imagery. Ahead of this system, increasing upper-level divergence combined with 700-850 mb warm air advection and isentropic ascent is providing favorable large-scale forcing across the region. In the lower levels, a strengthening low-level jet continues to provide moisture transport into the area, supporting the ongoing precipitation. The 00Z sounding measured a precipitable water value of 1.44 inches, near the daily climatological maximum for this time of year and indicative of an anomalously moist atmosphere. However, elevated instability should gradually diminish through the early morning hours. Therefore, despite the considerable moisture available, hourly rainfall rates should generally remain below 0.50 inch. By Thursday afternoon and evening, a boundary will move into western and central portions of the area while another weak mid-level disturbance approaches within the southwesterly flow aloft. The combination of forcing along the boundary and the approaching disturbance should support another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of the area. Current trends continue to favor the axis of heavier precipitation shifting east and southeast as the better moisture and upper-level support become focused across central and eastern Nebraska. Meanwhile, drier air will begin advancing into western portions of the area behind the boundary. The 00Z HREF continues to show the strongest signal for precipitation totals exceeding 0.50 inch across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area, generally along and southeast of a Hayes Center to North Platte to Broken Bow to ONeill line. Weak instability and limited deep-layer shear should keep the severe weather threat low. Highs Thursday will likely remain in the middle 60s where precipitation and cloud cover persist, with lower to middle 70s across northern and western portions of the area. Thursday night will be cooler, with lows generally in the 50s and some upper 40s possible across northwest Nebraska.

Friday, a longwave trough will move into the Pacific Northwest, with height falls beginning to spread across the region as a shortwave ahead of the main trough approaches from the west. At the surface, increasing southerly flow will maintain low-level moisture across the area. However, the deeper moisture and stronger upper-level forcing associated with the southern-stream system should remain primarily south and east of the forecast area, favoring heavier precipitation across eastern Nebraska into Kansas. With limited MUCAPE and the stronger upper-level support remaining south of the area, periods of lighter precipitation and persistent low clouds appear more likely across the region Friday. Lingering cloud cover should also limit daytime heating, with highs generally in the lower to middle 60s across eastern portions of the area and upper 60s to lower 70s farther west. Friday night lows should remain mild, generally in the middle to upper 50s, as increased low-level moisture persists.

Saturday into Saturday night, the longwave trough over the northwestern United States will eject into portions of the northern Plains, while a strong surface low moves across south-central Canada. Increasing warm air advection ahead of this system will support a return to warmer temperatures. Meanwhile, the southern- stream disturbance should continue moving east of the region, taking the deeper moisture and better precipitation chances with it and allowing drier air to spread into western Nebraska. Highs Saturday should rebound into the middle to upper 70s across much of the area, with lower 80s possible across southwest Nebraska. Some guidance has trended toward lower afternoon relative humidity values across western Nebraska. However, winds currently appear light enough to keep overall fire weather concerns limited. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next few forecast cycles. Saturday night lows will generally fall into the lower to middle 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

On Sunday, an upper trough and closed low will be located over the Central Canadian Provinces with an upper trough extending southwest across the Great Basin into central California. This may set up a frontal boundary across southeast Montana into southern North Dakota. Surface high pressure will be in place across the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Mild temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s across western Nebraska, while eastern areas only reach the low 70s. The frontal boundary will begin to drop south as a cold front across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. The advancement of a slow moving longwave trough and cold frontal passage will bring increasing chances for showers and storms Sunday night in the west, and Monday into Monday night. Likely POPS Monday night. Chance POPS for showers linger Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remain timing differences in the cold front and upper trough. The deterministic GFS is faster, progressing the upper trough axis through western Nebraska on Tuesday. The ECMWF is much slower and supports a more lengthy potential for precipitation chances through at least Wednesday, as it develops a closed low east from the Four Corners Tuesday night into Wednesday. Therefore, confidence in timing and duration is below average.

Highs Monday in the low 70s, to upper 70s far southwest should cool into the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Degraded aviation conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Low stratus with light rain continues to depart into central Nebraska early this afternoon. While precipitation will largely remain outside the terminals, lowered ceilings yielding IFR and MVFR conditions will persist through the daytime. Tonight, ceilings should lower with the arrival of another round of light rain from the south. Main aviation concern will be CIGs as IFR and eventually LIFR conditions appear probable. Only slow improvement is expected towards the end of the period with confidence in returning to anything higher than IFR conditions low.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.