textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will be wet across the forecast area with precipitation likely tonight, and again Sunday night into Monday.

- Mainly drier conditions are expected Monday night through Thursday night with only minor chances for precipitation in eastern areas Tuesday night.

- The threat for precipitation will increase Friday into next weekend, though forecast confidence is low.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A highly amplified and active H5 pattern continues this morning across the CONUS and Canada. Ridging was present from the Arklatex, north-northeast to northeastern Ontario. East of this feature, closed low pressure was noted south of Newfoundland Canada with a trough trailing to the southwest into Florida and western Cuba. West of the trough this morning, a total of three closed lows were noted. The first was off the central coast of British Columbia. The second was along the Saskatchewan and Alberta border. The third system was located along the California and Arizona border. Satellite imagery this morning has a broad plume of Pacific moisture lifting across central Mexico into western Texas, eastern New Mexico and north into the high plains of Colorado, western Kansas and Nebraska. At the surface this afternoon...a strong cold front extended from far south central Nebraska into east central Nebraska near Omaha. Northerly winds and cool temperatures were noted across the forecast area this afternoon. A broad area of rainfall extended from southwestern Nebraska, northeast into the eastern Sandhills and portions of north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 45 degrees at Gordon, to 49 degrees at O'Neill.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Two rounds of precipitation are poised to impact western and north central Nebraska over the next 48 hours. Upper level low pressure will lift to the north- northeast tonight, ending up over southern Utah by 12z Sunday. A lead shortwave, currently over far southeastern Colorado, will lift to the north-northeast late this afternoon, approaching NW Kansas early this evening. Isentropic lift will increase this evening from southwestern and western Nebraska into northern Nebraska overnight. Though measureable precipitation appears likely for the entire forecast area tonight, the best chances for a quarter inch or more QPF lies east of a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth. Forecast soundings across the west and northwest indicate a relatively dry layer between the boundary layer and around 10000 FT AGL. This will take time to saturate this evening before rain can materialize in the west. With this in mind, focused the highest pops generally east of the panhandle counties tonight. As for lows, the NBM came in with chilly sub freezing lows across the west and northwest tonight along with lows well below the MAV and below the MET guidance. After coordinating with mainly our neighboring offices to the west and north, lows tonight were trended upward and brought more in line with the MAV and MET guidance. Precipitation will lift north into South Dakota Sunday morning with a brief reprieve in precipitation late Sunday morning into the early afternoon hours. Similar to today, a lead shortwave will lift north northeast across eastern Colorado Sunday afternoon. As this feature approaches late Sunday, isentropic lift on the 305K surface increases from SW Nebraska into the Sandhills and north central Nebraska Sunday evening. This lead disturbance will be followed by the main upper level low Sunday night into Monday afternoon which traverses Wyoming into northwestern Nebraska. Decent mid level isentropic lift in association with the main system will be present across most of the forecast area with the best threat for wetting rain over the panhandle and the remainder of the CWA. The NBM initiated with categorical (80%+) pops for Sunday night into Monday morning and this is on track based on the deterministic solns this morning. With the high likelihood of precipitation early Monday morning over the northwestern forecast area and forecast lows in the lower 30s, will continue to monitor the potential for snow, especially in the Pine Ridge of northern Sheridan County. As was the case yesterday, forecast soundings in this area continue to show an all rain temperature profile.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Precipitation chances will end in the east Monday evening as the upper level disturbance tracks into the eastern Dakotas. After dry conditions for the next 18 to 24 hours, a second upper level trough, will cross the northern Rockies Tuesday, entering the western Dakotas Tuesday evening. With westerly winds expected across the western half of the forecast area Tuesday, moisture will be limited with the main precipitation chances over eastern portions of the forecast area. Beyond Tuesday night, dry conditions are expected through Friday. Late in the week, the deterministic GFS and EC solns develop a closed low over the Pacific NW. As this feature tracks east, precipitation chances will increase next weekend. ATTM the best chances appear to be over the eastern half of Nebraska, however, given the track differences of the mid level low late next week into the weekend, forecast confidence in this becoming reality is low ATTM.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers and stratus are observed across eastern portions of western and north central Nebraska, leading to MVFR and IFR conditions. Further west, though there is still mid level stratus, conditions remain VFR for the next few hours. However, as moisture continues to track into the region, expect ceilings to continue lowering, with rain showers spreading further west throughout the overnight hours. As rain intensifies, IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the morning and afternoon hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.