textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler daytime highs in the upper 50s to low 60s through Friday.

- Increased widespread precipitation chances late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning across western and north central Nebraska.

- Increasing confidence in frost/freeze potential Friday and Saturday morning.

- Warmer, drier conditions expected to return this weekend through early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Low stratus clouds continue to linger over most of western and north central Nebraska today. As a result of this, highs have remained in the low to mid 50s today. This low cloud deck should remain through most of the evening tonight along with breezy north northeasterly winds. Any clearing tonight along with weaker winds near the South Dakota/Nebraska border, particularly across Sheridan and Cherry counties, will allow for temperatures to quickly drop out to mid to low 30s. This could lead to some areas seeing isolated frost development, however confidence remains low for this. Slightly stronger winds further south should keep temperatures outside of frost concerns.

An upper trough will cross the Rockies, reaching the Front Range by tomorrow evening, creating southwest flow aloft. This will coincide with strong surface cyclogenesis developing across southeastern Colorado, promoting increasing isentropic lifting. This will lead to increasing precipitation chances as the low pivots towards southwest Nebraska tomorrow evening. The timeline for precipitation chances still looks to take place between late Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday morning. There appears to be some threat for embedded thunderstorms tomorrow evening over southwest to central Nebraska, where guidance is in good agreement for meager MUCAPE in the range of 150 - 300 J/kg.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 336 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

As mentioned above, an active weather pattern will continue into Thursday. The upper low will continue to move eastward into South Dakota, potentially putting the area into a dry slot by the afternoon. Nevertheless, there is increasing confidence that most locations could see up to at least a half inch of rainfall, with some locations along and north of I80 in the Sandhills having a 30 to 50 percent chance of receiving an inch total. The longer duration of this system should mostly preclude any potential flooding concerns, but will be watched closely, particularly along the I80 region as the event takes shape.

By Thursday afternoon, the precipitation should begin to push out of the area. Wanted to mention a possibility of some isolated fire weather concerns in northern Sheridan and northwestern Cherry counties, as far south of McKelvie National Forest where humidity could drop to 30 - 40 percent overlapped with 35 to 40 mph wind gusts. This will all be dependent on exactly where the dry slotting takes place as well as how long any precipitation lingers into the afternoon.

As the upper trough moves off to the east into the Midwest region, strong upper ridging will return across the Pacific Northwest. With this ridge, cold air advection will ride south with northerly flow aloft out of Canada and push a much colder, drier airmass into the Northern Plains. This airmass will arrive to our region late Thursday night to early Friday morning. This will plunge low temperatures into the low 30s across most of the CWA with the eastern Panhandle potentially dropping to the upper 20s. While Saturday morning could see lows in the low to mid 30s across the region. With these widespread low temperatures, confidence in Frost/Freeze headlines grows with each forecast cycle. Opted to wait for this forecast cycle to see if the trend continues to hold but have added frost Friday morning to highlight this concern. Stay tuned for the latest information on frost/freeze potential.

Switching gears to the weekend and early next week, the upper ridge continues to move across the Rockies and into the Plains by Saturday afternoon. this will bring daytime highs back into the upper 60s to low 70s across western and north central Nebraska through the early next week. Depending on how the precipitation system fairs from earlier in the week, will better determine the potential severity for any fire weather concerns through the weekend. As it stands now, areas west of Hwy 83 is highlighted for the potential of some elevated fire weather concerns where locations could see humidity drop as low as 25 percent Saturday afternoon. This will have some overlap with strong southerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Stratus remains across most of western and north central Nebraska this afternoon, bringing widespread MVFR and low end VFR conditions. The stratus deck is expected to persist through most of the afternoon, with some greater breaking in the evening, providing a window of VFR conditions. Overnight, another round of stratus builds in, bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings through the morning. Winds out of the north to northeast should remain strong enough to prevent fog development overnight. Will still need to keep an eye on precipitation chances near the end of the TAF period, as steady rainfall is expected on Wednesday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.