textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of light precipitation, drizzle, and fog are possible through Friday, with another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms possible Friday evening into Friday night, favoring southwest into central Nebraska.

- Drier and warmer conditions return Saturday, with highs rebounding into the 70s to lower 80s.

- A dry Sunday will give way to another round of potential rainfall Monday afternoon and Monday night. Another system mid- week (Wednesday and Thursday) will have to be monitored. At this time, it appears the rainfall from that may stay south and southeast of the area. Near normal highs Sunday and Monday will give way to below normal readings Tuesday a into the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Currently, a weak southern-stream disturbance is located near Baja California. Ahead of this system, a plume of deeper moisture continues to stream northeastward within the southwesterly flow aloft, which is evident on mid-level water-vapor satellite imagery. The 00Z RAOB measured a precipitable water value of 1.51 inches, again near the daily climatological maximum for this time of year and indicative of a very anomalous moisture environment. Upper-level divergence, combined with mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis, is currently supporting precipitation across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Current observations and model guidance suggest the best forcing for precipitation through the morning will remain across eastern portions of the area, primarily east of Highway 83, with this initial round likely persisting through at least 12Z. Increasing low-level saturation should support areas of fog across much of the region through the morning hours. BUFKIT soundings show a nearly saturated low-level profile beneath relatively weak ascent, which should favor widespread low clouds, areas of fog, and periods of drizzle or light precipitation. Some locally dense fog will also be possible where the lowest levels become fully saturated. Overall, Friday is shaping up to be a rather dreary day across much of the area, with persistent low clouds, fog, and periods of drizzle or light rain. Limited daytime heating beneath the extensive cloud cover should keep temperatures cool across much of the region. By Friday afternoon, the southern-stream shortwave will begin lifting northeastward toward the region. Southerly to southeasterly low- level flow will strengthen ahead of the wave, while mid-level lapse rates gradually increase. Some clearing may occur across southwest Nebraska as a warm front lifts northward, which could allow for modest destabilization and increasing MUCAPE through the late afternoon and evening. Both the 00z REFS and HREF currently show a signal for locally heavier precipitation across portions of Frontier into Custer Counties Friday evening. If thunderstorms develop in this area, the severe weather threat should remain low given weak deep-layer shear. However, locally heavy rainfall will remain possible given the anomalously moist environment. Confidence in the location and coverage of this activity remains low, with the stronger signal for heavier precipitation and thunderstorms still focused farther south and east across Kansas and eastern Nebraska where stronger forcing and greater instability are expected. High temperatures Friday will remain in the lower to middle 60s across eastern portions of the area where cloud cover and precipitation persist. Farther southwest, some afternoon clearing may allow temperatures to reach the lower to middle 70s.

Saturday into Saturday night, the southern-stream system will weaken and move east of the region through the day as mid-level ridging develops in its wake. The better warm air advection and isentropic ascent associated with the departing disturbance should shift into eastern Nebraska, taking the better precipitation chances east of the forecast area. Increasing subsidence and height rises should result in drier conditions and decreasing cloud cover across western and north-central Nebraska. By Saturday afternoon, a surface trough extending southward from low pressure across southern Canada will move into western Nebraska. Downslope flow behind the trough should allow a considerably drier air mass to spread into western portions of the area. Minimum relative humidity values may fall into the 25 to 30 percent range across western Nebraska. Uncertainty remains regarding how far east this drier air will progress, though winds currently appear marginal for more significant fire weather concerns. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next couple of forecast cycles. With increasing sunshine, highs Saturday should rebound into the middle to upper 70s across much of the area, with lower 80s possible across portions of western and southwest Nebraska. Saturday night lows will generally fall into the lower to middle 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Upper level ridging will translate eastward across the Central Plains Sunday. This should bring a mainly dry day, with near seasonal average high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Southwest flow aloft begins to strengthen Monday ahead of a closed upper trough that will digging southeastward toward the Desert Southwest. Leeward troughing will deepen during the day with a moist southeast low-levek flow in place to the east of the troughing across the entire area. Surface dew points around 60F should be in place, which is rather impressive for the end of September. PWATS will be on the increase once again due to a combination of low-level moisture from the Gulf and mid and upper-level sub-tropical moisture being pulled northeastward from northwest Mexico and the Desert Southwest. ECMWF ENS average mean PWATS will be in the 1.1 to 1.3 range Monday afternoon. Convection is likely to develop near the leeward trough within the moist up-slope flow regime. With continued moisture advection on a modest southerly low-level jet, it appears that the convection will grow upscale as it moves eastward across the area Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall rates could become a concern due to the anomalously high amount of moisture that will be in place. As we move toward the middle of the week the weather remains interesting. The Desert Southwest closed upper trough will swing eastward toward the Southern Plains. At the same time, the remnants of Hurricane Polo and it's associated tropical moisture, will be pulled northeast and become absorbed into the upper circulation of the upper low. There is low confidence on how this could affect us. The consensus seems to be that most of the rainfall (potentially heavy) will focus south and southeast of our area Wednesday and Thursday. This is largely due to strong northern stream energy across the Northern Plains, which keeps the upper low tracking in a more easterly direction across the Southern Plains. Of note, the GFS is weaker with the northern stream, and allows for rainfall to wrap back westward into at least the eastern half of the area. Will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Widespread IFR and localized low IFR is expected to persist across most of western and north central Nebraska though mid- morning. IFR/MVFR ceilings will then persist into this afternoon into this evening. Surface winds will be southeast at 5 to 10 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.