textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry precipitation overspreads north central Nebraska this morning and persists into this evening. Sleet, freezing rain, and light snow could lead to hazardous travel conditions.

- Dry conditions return for this weekend and continue into next week, along with well above average temperatures (highs in 50s to 60s).

- The combination dry conditions, near record temperatures, and gusty west winds could lead to increasing fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon across much of western Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Currently, a weak surface low is located across northeastern Wyoming, with a warm front extending southeast into the western Nebraska Panhandle. Ahead of this warm front, light rain is spreading into portions of the Sandhills. Aloft, a shortwave trough is crossing the Rockies, with broad zonal flow across the area ahead of this shortwave. A shallow cold airmass is in place across north central Nebraska, with patchy fog being reported north of HWY 2 and east of HWY 83.

For today, expect the aforementioned surface low to eject southeast out of Wyoming this morning and into western Nebraska this afternoon. As this occurs, the warm front will lift northeast into the Sandhills, with its eastward progression limited to around the HWY 183 corridor. Ongoing light precipitation will continue to spread northeast in advance of this warm front, as low level isentropic ascent increases with the approach of the front. Thus far, this precipitation has fallen in areas well above freezing, leading to little impact to travel. However, as this precipitation spreads into north central Nebraska later this morning, it will overspread a shallow, cold airmass. A prevalent warm nose aloft, as indicated by forecast soundings, lends some uncertainty to p-type. That said, believe a period of freezing drizzle or rain is most likely at onset. This is due to enough warm air aloft to fully melt hydrometeors, and the low level cold airmass remaining just shallow enough to limit refreezing. Its in this window (into this afternoon) where the threat for light icing will maximize across portions of north central Nebraska. Guidance has begun to come better agreement with respect to this, with a northwest to southeast oriented corridor of ice accretions of ~0.05-0.10". The area of greatest risk for this is east of roughly a Valentine to Broken Bow line. It is here where hazardous travel conditions are expected to develop today, and have issued a Winter Weather Advisory to address this threat. Persistent low- level ascent will gradually cool the vertical column with time, and lead to more of a mix/changeover of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow into this afternoon. Temperatures look to climb very little and largely remain steady across north central Nebraska this afternoon, keeping highs below freezing and keep a threat for icy conditions going. The surface low exits off to the southeast of the area by this evening, with any precipitation quickly ending from west to east shortly after sunset.

Further west today, westerly flow will establish behind the warm front, and lead to temperatures quickly climbing this afternoon. This will promote a rather wide range in highs today, with highs near 60s in southwest Nebraska to the upper 20s in north central Nebraska. Winds strengthen from the west-northwest near and west of HWY 61 this afternoon, with gusts approaching 25-30 miles per hour.

Heights quickly rise aloft behind the departing shortwave into Saturday, leading to increasing subsidence aloft and skies clearing Saturday morning. Weak westerly downslope flow establishes across the area, bringing a return of above average highs to the entire area, in the 40s (north central Nebraska) to low 60s (southwest Nebraska). An upper ridge begins to amplify across the Rockies, bringing a return of dry conditions as we head into the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The upper ridge axis begins to translate overhead as we head into Sunday, with southwest flow establishing aloft by Sunday afternoon. Strengthening low level warm advection boosts H85 temps above the 90th percentile, and all signs point to a very mild day. The current forecast remains in line with NBM guidance, which is on the low side of the deterministic guidance suite (much like the stretch of record highs in late December). In fact, 50th percentile guidance is ~3-5F warmer across much of the area. This suggests highs might be a few degrees too low, and this will have impacts on fire weather concerns. As these near record temperatures combine with dry air and strengthening west winds, a period of near-critical fire conditions may develop Sunday afternoon. The strongest winds look to occur across western Nebraska, and this is where fire concerns will likely be greatest.

Benign weather conditions look to persist as we head into next week, with broad zonal flow establishing aloft. This promotes persistent low level downslope flow across the area, and should keep highs above average each day as we head into next week. A lack of upper level shortwaves in this zonal flow also points to continued dry conditions, with little in the way of precipitation chances to speak of. This could change as we head into late week, as a deeper system begins to eject out of the Rockies. Confidence in this remains low for now, and trends will continue to be monitored for our next shot at precipitation locally.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Low stratus and patchy fog persists this morning across north central Nebraska, leading to IFR/LIFR CIGs and visibilities. This stratus persists into tonight, before slowly exiting the area into tomorrow morning. A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and light snow is also possible across north central Nebraska today, with periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities.

A front will bisect the area this afternoon, with southerly winds east of HWY 83 at 5 to 10kts. West of HWY 83, west- northwest winds are expected, with gusts of 20 to 25kts this afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NEZ006>010-027>029.