textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A low pressure system will cross the area tonight into Monday. Light rain will be possible with this system

- After Monday night, mainly dry conditions are expected thorugh Friday with cooler than normal temperatures forecast.

- There is the potential for a weather system to impact the Central Plains late Saturday into early the following week. At this time, forecast confidence is low as to the evolution of this system.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

H5 analysis tonight continued to show a split flow regime across southern Canada and the CONUS. Low amplitude ridging was present from western Montana, north into central Alberta. Further east, a shortwave trough was present over western Ontario and extended to the south into the Minnesota Arrowhead and northern Wisconsin. East of this feature, closed low pressure was present over Labrador Newfoundland. Across the CONUS, a shortwave trough was present over southern Ohio into northern Kentucky. Low amplitude ridging extended from northwestern Texas into southeastern Wyoming. West of the ridge, closed low pressure was present over northern portions of Baja California. Current satellite imagery has this feature along the Arizona/Mexico border south of Phoenix. At the surface tonight, a broad area of high pressure was present over the central and southern plains. Skies were clear across western and north central Nebraska overnight and 2 AM temperatures ranged from 25 degrees at North Platte to 34 degrees at Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The upper level low will lift northeast from souther Arizona into central Colorado today. Downstream ridging will transition east across the forecast area today with warm air and increasing southerly winds overspreading the forecast area. Afternoon highs will reach well into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the forecast area. These readings will more than likely be the last time we hit the 60 degree mark across western and north central Nebraska for the foreseeable future. The upper level low will eject off the central Colorado Rockies tonight, meandering to the east northeast overnight. By 12z Monday, this feature will be over northwestern Kansas. Decent mid level warm air advection will transition from southwestern into central Nebraska tonight, along with a brief window of favorable isentropic lift at the 300K surface. This will lead to the development of precipitation later this evening across southwestern Nebraska. Precipitation will then spread northeast into central, then portions of north central Nebraska overnight into Monday before exiting the forecast area early Monday afternoon. The inherited forecast was in decent shape with respect to pops. The only changes were to tighten pops on the northern periphery of the forecast area. Believe the influx of some drier air from the north will limit the precipitation threat over far northern portions of the forecast area. This notion is also supported by the latest 00z HRRR, as well as the NAM and hi res NAM solns and the 00Z WRF-ARW which all have no QPF across northwestern and far northwestern portions of the forecast area. As for highs Monday, clouds will end up limiting the warm up, particularly across far eastern portions of the forecast area where clouds may persist into the afternoon hours. Highs Monday will be in the lower to middle 50s which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. On the heels of the exiting system Monday afternoon, a second system will track from eastern Montana into North Dakota Monday night, forcing a cold front through the forecast area overnight. No precipitation is expected with the FROPA, however strong cold air advection, will lead to gusty winds overnight into Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 308 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Gusty winds and strong cold air advection will lead to highs Tuesday in the upper 30s to lower 40s. With the latest NBM forecast, POPS Tuesday were eliminated with this forecast package and this appears on track given the more northern trend with the H5 disturbance over North Dakota into northern Minnesota. For the middle to latter half of the work week, broad northwesterly flow will persist across the central CONUS. This will lead to daily highs mainly in the 40s with the coolest readings over the northeastern forecast area. Am expecting dry conditions through Friday. After Friday night, the forecast is more muddled. The deterministic EC and GFS solns begin to develop a broad trough of low pressure over the western half of the CONUS. As this feature transitions east, approaching, then crossing the central CONUS next weekend into the first week of December, we could see our first accumulating snow event across the forecast area. Current deterministic models including the EC and GFS continue to have decent track and timing issues on days 8-10, however ensemble guidance, most notably the EC does have a decent threat for accumulating snows Sunday November the and Monday December 1st.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A weather disturbance will move northward from the southern Rockies into the area tonight. This will bring an increase in low-level moisture to the area. This will lead to low clouds and likely IFR conditions across central into southwest Nebraska tonight into Monday morning. Areas of light rain are also expected, especially along and south of an ONL to TIF line. Winds will be south 10-15 kts today and become light tonight into Monday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.