textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog is possible this morning across portions of southwest and central Nebraska. Visibility may drop under one mile at times.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of north central Nebraska, mainly east of Highway 83. The main threats will be large hail and potential for damaging wind gusts.

- Another round of severe weather is possible on Friday afternoon and evening. The main threats remain large hail and potential for damaging wind gusts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

High pressure remains across most of the region this morning, with forecast soundings indicating a strong inversion through the overnight hours into the morning. Dewpoints are expected to remain relatively high, in the upper 50s to lower 60s, providing ample low level moisture underneath the inversion. In addition to all of this, surface winds remain light and variable into the morning hours. All of this increases the potential for patchy dense fog to develop, remaining into the mid morning hours. While the signal for fog development remains strong, there is still some question on how low visibility will drop. The latest probabilistic guidance brings around a 30 to 50 percent chance of visibility dropping less than one mile, but also remains similar for visibility under one quarter mile. Given the uncertainty in how dense the fog will get, have opted to hold off on issuing a Dense Fog Advisory at this time, but will continue to monitor through the night to determine whether one is necessary. At the very least, expect to see some fog around dawn and into the mid morning hours, with rapidly changing visibility conditions expected. This will be especially true along river valleys, low lying areas, and lakes.

The ample moisture is expected to stick around, and with highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, should see strong instability again building across the region. Will need to see how long fog and potential low stratus lingers this morning, as that may limit some of the higher end amounts. However, by mid afternoon, this should still result in around 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE, with around 40 knots deep layer shear. A surface cold front tracking south this afternoon is expected to be the catalyst for storm development, with greatest chances for storm development across north central Nebraska east of Highway 83. As the environment will support supercells, expecting the main threat will be large hail. However, cannot rule out the threat for damaging wind gusts, as well.

Friday, another round of severe weather is expected across the region. Very much like the previous few days, dewpoints remain in the 60s, providing plenty of low level moisture for additional storm development. Again, expecting temperatures to climb into the Upper 80s to lower 90s. This should again result in around 3,000 to 4,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE across the region. However, the main difference on Friday will be the presence of a jet streak tracking across portions of central and eastern Nebraska throughout the afternoon and evening. This will enhance the deep layer shear across the region, strongly supporting supercellular convection. With supercells again in play, expect that the main threats will remain large hail and damaging winds. However, latest forecast soundings and hodographs do suggest some enhancement in the low level helicity, so cannot completely rule out the possibility for a tornado or two on Friday afternoon, either. At the very least, make sure to have multiple ways to get weather updates and warnings on Friday. If the forecast remains on track, it could be a very active afternoon and evening across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Upper ridging across the Rockies begins to slowly amplify into the weekend, with the ridge axis beginning to move into the Plains by Sunday night. This will lead to warmer temperatures both Sunday and Monday, with highs in the lower 90s across western and southwest Nebraska. The approach of this ridge axis will also finally lead to weaker flow aloft, and lesser wind shear for at least a couple of days across the area. This suggests a brief reprieve from the recent daily threat for strong to severe storms. That said, sub-severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out each day as we head into the weekend.

As we head into next week, the upper ridge begins to flatten out across the southwestern US and brings a return of increasing northwesterly flow aloft across the Plains. This could bring a return of a threat for strong to severe storms, as wind shear increases again in response to the strengthening northwest flow. Mesoscale details will need to be resolved with respect to this threat, though it appears the active pattern will continue across the area as we head into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Low stratus and fog persists through late morning for terminals along and east of HWY 83, with IFR/LIFR CIGs and visibilities continuing. By late this morning, fog and stratus will quickly erode and VFR conditions are expected to then prevail for all terminals into tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development remains possible east of HWY 83 this evening, with brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds possible.

Winds remain southerly today and tonight, at 5 to 10kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ010-028- 029.