textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Extremely critical fire weather conditions persist into this evening, with concerns lingering into the overnight hours due to poor humidity recovery and gusty west winds.

- Elevated to near critical fire concerns are possible again on Wednesday, primarily east of Highway 83.

- A storm system impacts the area Thursday, bringing a threat for accumulating snowfall across portions of northern Nebraska. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Thursday across portions of northwest into north central Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Currently, extremely critical fire conditions persist across much of western and southwest Nebraska. Temperatures range from the lower 60s to middle 70s, with very dry air promoting widespread humidities in the teens. Strong west winds persist as well, with widespread gusts of 45 to 55 miles per hour observed.

For this evening and tonight, expected critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions to persist across all of western and north central Nebraska. Though increasing cloud cover has led to falling temperatures across much of western Nebraska, very dry air will keep critical humidity values in place into this evening. Continued strong winds will promote rapid and erratic fire spread in any new fire starts. The Red Flag Warnings were extended in time to 10 PM CST, with the thought that overnight humidity recovery will be exceptionally poor. With gusty winds expected to persist as well, very little relief is expected overnight with respect to fire weather conditions.

Elevated to near critical fire conditions are expected again tomorrow afternoon, as temperatures climb into the middle 50s to low 60s across the area. With the very dry airmass remaining in place, afternoon humidity values will again into the middle to upper teens. However, unlike today, the departing surface low will lead to winds quickly weakening by early tomorrow afternoon and this should keep fire concerns largely below critical thresholds. Will have to watch late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon closely however, as there appears to be a brief window for 25-30mph gusts to overlap the quickly falling humidity values.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Attention then turns to an impactful storm system, progged to impact the area during the day Thursday. Aloft, an upper low will quickly cross the Rockies Wednesday night, ejecting into the Plains early Thursday morning. As this upper low ejects onto the Plains Thursday, guidance suggests it will take on a negative tilt with time. An associated surface low will move east out of northeastern Colorado, and along the Kansas/Nebraska state line through early Thursday afternoon. As this low begins to push east, a cold front will push south across the area, leading to strong cold advection in its wake. As broad upslope easterly flow establishes late Wednesday night, precipitation overspreads portions of western Nebraska. A brief period of light rain is possible at onset, though the strong cold advection with frontal passage should lead to a quick and clean transition from rain to snow early Thursday morning. Guidance continues to suggest a narrow band of enhanced snowfall rates somewhere across northern Nebraska on Thursday afternoon, though confidence in placement remains low for now. This is driven by increasing mid-level FGEN, as the thermal gradient constricts aloft in the wake of the passing H7 low. Though moisture is not overly robust with this system, it appears to be more than adequate with the degree of forcing for ascent expected to overspread portions of the area. Add in north winds gusting to as high as 30 to 35 miles per hour as snow is falling, and this could lead to the first impactful winter storm for portions of northern Nebraska on Thursday. The current forecast of 4-8" is rather broad across portions of northwest and north central Nebraska, as expected at this range with limited confidence in placement of banding. Still, confidence is increasing enough with respect to where the heaviest snow axis should occur, and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued to address this threat. Locally heavier snow will be possible, with enhanced snowfall rates expected (1"/hr) in any banding. Blowing and drifting snow will also be a concern, and trends will need to be monitored closely.

Light snow is again possible on Saturday as another surface low passes off to the south the area, though confidence in this remains low and any impacts look to remain limited at best. Temperatures are then expected to slowly moderate back to above average by early next week, as upper ridging amplifies yet again across the western CONUS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Low-level wind shear will decrease through the early morning hours today (Wednesday). Surface winds will also diminish to around 10-15 kts from the west through the day. A shift in winds occurs tonight to the east/northeast as low pressure develops off to the west. VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon for NEZ004-005-023>025-094.