textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight with the best chances for precipitation in the panhandle, southwestern into portions of central Nebraska.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms looks likely Saturday evening with the greatest threat from the panhandle into southwestern Nebraska. Heavy rain is possible.

- The pattern will remain active into early next week with daily threats for showers and thunderstorms.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The H5 pattern this morning was highlighted by high pressure across the southeastern CONUS. Ridging extended north of the high into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. Further west, a broad trough of low pressure extended from British Columbia, south to approximately 300 miles off the coast of southern California. Broad southwesterly flow extended from the west coast, east to the central and northern plains. Within this flow a couple of strong disturbances were noted. The first was exiting Nebraska to the east and a second disturbance was approaching the Four Corners as of midday. The first disturbance led to a broad swath of precipitation from northwestern Kansas into south central, central and eastern Nebraska earlier today. This afternoon, a broad shield of cloudiness, in association with the Four Corners disturbance continued to lift into southwestern and central Colorado. As of 2 PM CDT under partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures ranged from 74 at O'Neill to 87 at Ogallala.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Precipitation chances and the threat for severe storms are the main forecast challenges for tonight into Saturday Night. A shortwave trough will lift across Colorado into the evening hours, initiating convection over the front ranges of Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. This activity will track to the east- northeast into western Kansas, southwestern Nebraska and the southern Nebraska Panhandle this evening. PWATS this afternoon are 1.55" for LBF per the latest NAM soln. This is well above the 90th percentile for today. Mid level winds remain weak today and surface to 6KM wind speeds are around 10 KTS. The combination of weak steering winds and high PWATS is concerning for heavy rain tonight, especially over southwestern Nebraska. Even with the heavy rain threat, the bulk of heavy rain last night moved southeast of the forecast area. That being said, with 3 HR FFG generally 2.5" or higher across SW Nebraska and the lack of rainfall last night, will forgo any flood watches for the area. However, this may not be the case for Saturday if heavy rain can materialize tonight. As for the severe threat, with the weak mid level winds and light winds at the surface, very limited deep layer wind shear exists tonight across the area. In addition, mid level lapse rates are steep across the panhandle, but quickly decrease toward the highway 83 corridor. That being said, the overall severe threat across the area should be limited to the southwest FA and appears to be a wind threat. Convection will transition east overnight. Was initially concerned about fog in the east toward daybreak, but the latest hi res solns are not sold on that idea. The convective setup for Saturday afternoon/evening will be similar to tonight's setup. Convection is expected to fire over the front ranges of Colorado and SE Wyoming Saturday afternoon. Very steep mid level lapse rates are forecast from the southern half of the panhandle south to far southwestern Nebraska Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. With respect to deep layer shear, it is more favorable for severe storms Saturday with forecast deep layer shear around 40 KTS. As for severe mode, large hail and damaging winds will be the initial threat with a transition to wind and heavy rain (ie. fcst. PWATS above the 90th%ile) Saturday evening/overnight. Although, the heavy rain threat may not be as pronounced as tonight's given stronger forecast mid level winds-favoring faster storm motions. Current CAMS develop a MCS and lift it across SW Nebraska into northern KS overnight. This forecast is also supported by the latest ECMWF SOT/EFI which highlights SW Nebraska for heavy rain Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft will transition to westerly on Sunday as high pressure retrogrades west across Texas. Another round of thunderstorms is possible across the western half of the forecast area Sunday as the models initiate convection off to the west of the forecast area. Steering winds will carry this activity east southeast across southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas. Limited CAPE across the eastern 2/3rds of the forecast area along with weak mid level lapse rates, should keep the severe threat across far western portions of the forecast area. West northwest flow aloft will persist through Tuesday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area. By Wednesday, the mid range solns. begin to amplify ridging across the western CONUS. This will place the central and northern plains in more northwesterly flow aloft. This will limit precipitation chances toward the end of next week. As for temperatures, cooler air will back into the eastern forecast area next week with highs in the 70s Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s in the west and southwestern forecast area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across southwest Nebraska and will continue to push eastward into the Sandhills and central Nebraska through sunrise. Erratic, gusty winds along with some small hail will be possible with these storms and may impact both terminals. Expect some reductions in visibility as heavy rainfall is also possible. Some light fog will be possible by early Saturday morning as well causing reductions in visibility down to 4 miles at times. Dry conditions return for much of Saturday, but another round of thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon and into the evening. Again these thunderstorms will have the potential for gusty winds and hail as the main threats.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.