textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight, with gusty winds up to 50 mph possible. Widespread wetting rainfall is not expected.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns may develop Friday afternoon, as gusty northwest winds combine with relative humidity values near 20 percent.

- Very warm temperatures return Monday with highs well into the 80s and the lower 90s in places.

- A bit of a cool down Tuesday but still mild with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Currently, a subtle mid-level shortwave is moving southeast from Montana into Wyoming along the periphery of the western ridge. This disturbance will produce height falls and associated pressure falls, supporting sufficient low to mid-level lift for shower development along an axis of increasing moisture. Steepening lapse rates will support modest instability, with MUCAPE values up to 600 J/kg potentially supporting isolated thunderstorms. CAM soundings show inverted-v profiles near convective development, suggesting the potential for gusty and erratic winds with any stronger activity. Recent HREF and CAM guidance continues to indicate this signal, though winds are expected to remain below severe limits, with gusts up to 50 mph possible. Limited deep-layer shear should preclude any additional severe hazards. Dry lightning may also remain a concern initially with any developing storms this afternoon into the evening. In terms of QPF, HREF guidance suggests spotty rainfall amounts around 0.10 to 0.15 inches, though widespread wetting rainfall is not expected. Along with this, lower relative humidity and gusty winds away from these developing storms could lead to some elevated fire concerns through the evening as well. Instability should quickly diminish after sunset, leading to the end of the showers and isolated thunderstorm activity. Overnight conditions will remain dry, with lingering cloud cover and increased low-level moisture keeping lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Friday, heights will rise behind today's departing shortwave, resulting in increasing subsidence across the region. This will support clearing skies along with warmer and drier conditions. 850mb temperatures will rise as upper-level ridging builds eastward, supporting highs in the low to mid 70s. An associated surface front will bring gusty northwest winds through the day Friday. While higher low-level moisture may still be present Friday morning, afternoon mixing should allow relative humidity values to fall around 20 percent. Bufkit soundings show near adiabatic lapse rates up to 700mb across the region, supporting more than efficient momentum transfer to the surface with gusts of 25 to 30 mph looking more likely during the afternoon hours. The overlap of strongest winds and lowest RH values may support elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. Friday night into Saturday morning, lows will remain in the upper 30s to low 40s beneath increasing cloud cover associated with persistent northwest flow aloft.

Saturday, another shortwave is expected to develop along the West Coast before moving southeast along the eastern periphery of the western ridge. This disturbance should provide sufficient lift for scattered shower and thunderstorms across portions of the area. Modest instability, with MUCAPE values around 500 to 600 J/kg combined with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates, may support a few stronger storms. However, uncertainty remains fairly high. Highs Saturday will range from the upper 60s north to upper 70s south ahead of an approaching front tied to the shortwave. Fire weather concerns should remain lower compared to Friday, with relative humidity generally remaining in the upper 20s to low 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow aloft will dominate the weather pattern through Tuesday. Upper level ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains by Wednesday with the flow aloft becoming more westerly on the northern periphery of the ridge.

Temperatures really begin to warm Monday as ridging begins to build across the Rockies. Heights rise beneath the northwest flow aloft with H7 temperatures rising several degrees. Return southerly flow at the surface will bring some limited Gulf moisture back northward across the area, with potential for low to mid 50s dew points reaching central Nebraska by afternoon. This area will be on the edge of the warmer H7 temperatures to the west, and could see isolated thunderstorm development along a surface trough that will mix eastward Monday afternoon into the deeper low-level moisture. Sounding profiles would support supercell development and potential for large hail. Limiting factors will be the lack of much upper- level forcing and low-level convergence along the surface trough. Depending on the amount of return low-level moisture and south winds ahead of the surface trough, fire weather concerns could be more of an issue.

A weak cold front crosses the area Monday night as a shortwave crosses the Northern Plains. This will cool back highs a little Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s as opposed to Monday's upper 80s to lower 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Scattered showers with a few stray thunderstorms across western Nebraska will approach LBF early this evening. Confidence in impacts is low so will cover with VCTS for now. Should direct impacts occur, gusty erratic winds will be the main concern. Thereafter, expect only mid to high level clouds with light and variable winds. Winds favor northwesterly during the day on Friday with gusts around 25 knots possible for both sites.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.