textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to high confidence severe storms this afternoon and evening with a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds being the primary threats.

- Moderate to high confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again late Tuesday afternoon and evening with large hail, strong winds being the main threats.

- Thunderstorms persist into late week, with some threat for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across northern Nebraska tonight. These showers will slowly weaken as they move southeastward into more stable air, completely exiting by sunrise. The main concern with these showers will be gusty winds (there's been a history of up to 75 mph gusts these storms) along with some heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding. The threat for strong winds should continue to decrease over the next few hours, transitioning into a more heavy rain event as storms train over the same area. At this time, not anticipating widespread flooding, but some area creeks and streams could see rises leading to some localized minor flooding, along with some flooding of ditches and low lying areas across areas that have seen some heavy rain the past few days.

Dry conditions return for much of Monday with a return to isolated to scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon and into the evening. Ample instability (CAPE values over 3000 J/kg and lapse rates near 7 C/km) and plenty of low level moisture will create a favorable environment for severe storms. Storms will initiate across northwest Nebraska pushing into the Sandhills and portions of central Nebraska through the evening. Initially, storms will be discrete before forming a line of storms by early evening. While storms remain discrete, hail at least 1 inch in diameter, potentially larger, will be the primary threat. As storms evolve into a line, damaging winds up to 65 mph will become the main threat. The environment is also favorable for tornado development with a narrow ribbon of higher helicity combining with increasing shear. Therefore, a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out especially near the beginning of the event when supercells remain discrete enough to take advantage of the environment. The severe threat will continue through late evening before storms start to weaken.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Tuesday. A return to isolated to scattered thunderstorms arrives by late afternoon lasting into the overnight hours as a frontal boundary remains across southwest Nebraska. Enough instability should exist across the region to support severe storms by late afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats with these storms although there is also a very small tornado threat again. Storms will persist through the evening hours before becoming more stratiform in nature with embedded thunderstorms continuing through sunrise Wednesday morning.

As far as temperatures go, highs will remain near normal in the mid 80s to low 90s today, dropping back below normals in the upper 70s to mid 80s for much of the area on Tuesday. Locations south of I-80 (behind the frontal boundary) could see some higher temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will remain near normals, dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s through Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Strong west-northwest flow continues as we head into midweek, with at least some threat for thunderstorms continuing as well. This strong flow aloft will keep ample deep layer shear in place both Wednesday and Thursday, and some threat for strong to severe storms appears possible. Confidence in both placement and coverage of storms remains low confidence for now, and trends will continue to be monitored. By late week, upper ridging will begin to establish across the Rockies, amplifying into the weekend. This upper ridge axis also begins to translate eastwards into the Plains by Saturday night. This will lead to height rises across the area and increasing temperatures into the weekend. This could also bring a brief reprieve from thunderstorm threats, before the ridge begins to flatten early next week and zonal flow establishes aloft again.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms persist across portions of the Sandhills early this morning, with brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds expected. Additional scattered thunderstorm development is again possible across the Sandhills this evening.

Winds remain southerly today and tonight, at 10 to 15kts this afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.