textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in hot, above normal temperatures returning through Sunday with highs across north central approaching or exceeding 100 degrees.

- High confidence in dry conditions through the weekend.

- Moderate to high confidence in return to cooler temperatures and thunderstorms Tuesday through next Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Extreme heat across the region will remain the main concern through Monday. Upper level ridging will remain in place keeping strong surface high pressure over the central US. With warm air advection pushing 850 mb temperatures in the 23 to 29 C range on Saturday, expect highs to generally be in the mid to upper 90s. A surge of even warmer 850mb temperatures in the 30 to 35 C range arrives on Sunday and Monday resulting in the warmest temperatures we've seen this past week. This will likely push highs into the upper 90s to low 100s, with heat indicies into the 100 to 105 range. Looking at the latest probabilities, the potential of hitting 100 degrees or higher is currently 75 to 80 percent across northern and portions of north central Nebraska (generally along and north of US-20) on Sunday. This same probability extends further to the south (north of I-80) on Monday. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT guidance, the EFI is relatively high (0.7 to 0.8), but SoT is fairly low. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very hot, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Monday. Speaking of records, they remain generally on the higher end at 107, 110, 108, and 116 at North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow, and Imperial respectively. Regardless, with increasing probabilities and confidence in higher temperatures, have increased highs slightly for both days. With these extreme temperatures and heat indicies, have also gone ahead and issued heat advisories across much of north central and portions of southwest Nebraska. On Sunday, the advisory remains limited to north central where the highest temperatures are expected. This advisory across the north remains in effect through the Sunday overnight period as overnight lows only drop into the mid to upper 70s keeping nighttime temperatures relatively uncomfortable. The heat advisory then gets expanded to the south and west along the I-80 corridor and into southwest Nebraska. There may be additional adjustments to the going advisories over the next few days, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts.

There are some concerns, though, with the high temperatures on Monday. While the probabilities seem to suggest higher temperatures, and confidence is indeed high, there will be a cold front passage on Monday. The latest model trends have been bringing the front, and colder temperatures behind it, through earlier in the day, which may limit some of the extremely high temperatures, especially across the north. We will need to closely monitor this front as it begins to track through central Nebraska as it may allow heat advisories to be cancelled early if temperatures don't rise as high as expected.

As far as precipitation goes, it will be a mostly dry forecast through Monday night. There is a low end (less than 20 percent) chance of some isolated showers on late afternoon and early evening Saturday. Confidence is very low in development, but with several CAMs suggesting some isolated albeit short-lived convection, felt it was warranted to include in the forecast across portions of central Nebraska. There is also some low precip chances on Monday evening with the frontal passage. With limited moisture, any thunderstorms that can develop will be mainly confined to the higher terrain of the Panhandle. Therefore, only included a thunderstorm mention for the eastern Panhandle, locations generally west of Highway 61 and north of I-80. Not expecting severe thunderstorms, but a few stronger storms could be possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

On Tuesday, the cold front passage will allow for some cooler air to begin to push into the region for the middle of the week lasting through the end of the week. Highs will range from the mid 80s across northern Nebraska to the low 90s south of I-80. Temperatures continue to plummet through the week dropping into the mid to upper 80s through next Friday. As the pattern begins to shift, there will also be a return to moisture and precipitation chances. With upper level ridging across the western US, a series of disturbances will pivot across the central Plains. This will bring near daily rain and thunderstorm chances to the region through next Friday. While not anticipating widespread severe thunderstorms at this time, some stronger to briefly severe thunderstorms may be possible across the region. Will continue to monitor the severe potential over the next several days and make adjustments to the forecast as needed.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will become light and variable overnight, then be out of the east to northeast Saturday afternoon around 5 to 10 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Sunday to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ005>010-026>029-094. Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ025-036>038-057>059-069>071.