textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A very cold start this morning across most of the region, with wind chills ranging from 10 to 25 below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for northern Nebraska this morning, where wind chills are expected to remain 20 below zero or colder.

- The combination of low relative humidity and gusty northwesterly winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions across western and southwestern Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon across the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska.

- Gusty winds persist on Sunday as well, with northwesterly wind gusts up to 45 mph Sunday afternoon. Warming temperatures and gusty winds may lead to additional fire weather concerns.

- Temperatures fluctuate throughout the week, with the forecast remaining mostly dry through the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 403 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front tracks across Nebraska this morning, bringing frigid temperatures in its wake. As of 3 AM, already observing wind chills of 20 to 25 below zero along the South Dakota-Nebraska border continuing to track south across the region. Given the timing of the front, have made no changes to the inherited Cold Weather Advisory, as the coldest wind chills are expected to remain along and north of Highway 2. However, counties on the edge of the Advisory may see wind chills briefly drop to or below 20 below zero this morning. By late morning, still expecting that most of the 20 below wind chills will stop, however, wind chills of 10 to 15 below zero may persist through the afternoon in portions of north central Nebraska.

Temperatures remain on the cool side today, with highs ranging from the teens across north central Nebraska to the upper 20s across the Panhandle. Despite the cold temperatures, very dry air is expected across western Nebraska, with afternoon relative humidity values in the low teens. Strong northwesterly winds continue across western and southwestern Nebraska this afternoon, with sustained winds remaining around 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Given the very dry environment and strong winds, critical fire weather conditions are expected across western and southwestern Nebraska this afternoon, with a Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon. By this evening, winds will decrease across western Nebraska.

The calmer winds Saturday night into Sunday morning will limit overnight wind chills, with most wind chills remaining above zero. Lows still remain cold, with actual temperatures in the single digits to low teens. By Sunday afternoon, temperatures are expected to warm across most of the region, with highs ranging from the mid 30s across north central Nebraska to the mid 40s across southwest Nebraska and the Panhandle. Slightly higher humidity values are expected on Sunday, with minimum relative humidity values remaining at or above 30 percent. Yet again, windy conditions are expected on Sunday, with strong northwest sustained winds of 30 to 35 mph with gusts of 50 mph or greater throughout the afternoon. Though humidity values remain above critical thresholds, the strong gusty winds and general lack of meaningful precipitation may lead to additional fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 403 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Another cold start is expected Monday morning, with lows ranging from the single digits into the low teens. Wind chills are expected to range from the low single digits across southwest Nebraska to around 10 to 15 below zero across north central Nebraska. Conditions look to be breezy again on Monday, with northwest wind gusts continuing across western Nebraska Monday afternoon.

The rest of the week, highly variable and fluctuating temperature are expected. An upper level ridge sets up across the western United States, with several shortwaves tracking through the upper level flow. This will create an active upper level pattern across Nebraska, with ridging bringing warming conditions and shortwaves bringing in blasts of cooler, arctic air. Much will depend on how the upper level pattern evolves, so expect that changes in the long term forecast will be likely. For instance, latest NBM guidance shows quite a spread in potential high temperatures mid to late week, with the range between the 25th and 75th percentile solutions varying by nearly 20 degrees.Will continue to monitor forecast trends, however, as previously stated, changes are likely in the long term forecast as solutions come into better agreement.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A low pressure system and cold front are tracking through western Nebraska this morning, bringing gusty northerly to northwesterly winds across the region. Conditions range from VFR across western and southwestern Nebraska to MVFR across north central Nebraska, where lower ceilings and pockets of blowing snow are creating visibility restrictions. As the low tracks further south this afternoon, conditions improve to VFR across the region, with winds decreasing by the evening. Overnight, the development of a strong low level jet may introduce LLWS concerns and gusty surface winds. Confidence is medium in location and intensity, so will omit from TAFs for the time being, until confidence improves.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 403 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Despite cold temperatures across the region this afternoon, critical fire weather conditions are expected across western and southwestern Nebraska this afternoon. Overnight humidity recovery has been quite poor ahead of the cold front, with peak recovery to around 55 percent across southwest Nebraska. This afternoon, very dry air will drop relative humidity values into the low teens. Sustained northwest winds of 25 mph are expected with gusts up to 40 mph. As such, have kept the Red Flag Warning across fire weather zones 204 and 210 this afternoon.

Overnight humidity recovery is again expected to be poor tonight into Sunday, again recovering to around 55 percent across southwest Nebraska. Slightly warmer conditions are expected across southwest Nebraska Sunday afternoon, with highs reaching the mid to upper 40s. While afternoon humidity is expected to drop around 30 percent, winds remain gusty again on Sunday. Winds on Sunday are expected to sustain around 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon, with sporadic gusts up to 50 mph. This may lead to additional fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon.

Highly variable temperatures are expected this week, driven by an active upper level pattern. However, fire weather concerns return again on Tuesday, as highs are expected to climb into the 50s across the region. These warmer temperatures may be accompanied by gusty winds and lower humidity values. Beyond Tuesday, a mostly dry forecast is expected with variable temperatures.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ this morning for NEZ004>010-023>029-094. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ204-210.