textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet conditions continue this evening and overnight, especially for areas east of Highway 83. Patchy fog development is possible again across southwest and central Nebraska prior to sunrise.

- Expect a slight warm up this weekend, with mostly dry conditions. Highs are expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s and potentially into the lower 80s.

- Another chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Monday night into Tuesday, which may bring wetting rainfall across most of the region.

- Greater uncertainty builds into the forecast after Tuesday; however, the forecast continues to trend toward more seasonal temperatures during the day, with chances for precipitation waning by late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

An upper level trough tracks across the Pacific Northwest, bringing southwesterly flow aloft across the region. To the east of the trough, continuing to see height rises building across the central Plains. This larger flow pattern also introduces a push of dry air aloft, which is readily observable on both water vapor satellite imagery and the 18Z KLBF sounding. At the surface, a low pressure system tracks across north central Kansas, with a slowly developing warm front. As this low gradually lifts to the northeast this evening, expecting our eastern zones, mainly areas east of Highway 83, will be in a favorable environment for continued rain showers and potentially a few thunderstorms. Expecting that most of the precipitation expected this evening would be in the wrap around portion of the low, which should limit surface forcing. Given that the region has been generally overcast with mist and drizzle continuing into the afternoon, expect a mostly stable lower layer of the atmosphere. In addition to that, upper level flow is fairly week. This combination should limit any severe weather concerns with potential thunderstorms this evening. However, a fairly moist environment remains, which may support some locally heavy rainfall with any stronger updrafts this evening.

As showers gradually track east overnight, still expecting ample moisture in a fairly stable environment low level environment will remain. With surface winds expected to remain quite light overnight, this may lead to patchy fog development, especially across portions of southwest and central Nebraska. However, guidance continues to struggle with potential placement and intensity of fog, given that drizzle may be persisting across portions of the region. Regardless, conditions may remain somewhat wet and potentially foggy for Saturday morning. Those who plan to be out and about should be prepared for potentially changing visibility conditions.

As the upper level trough across the Pacific Northwest continues to lift to the northeast, expect upper level ridging to develop across most of the central Plains. This will support a push of warmer temperatures aloft as well as continued flow of drier air aloft, favoring warmer temperatures this weekend as well as mostly dry conditions. Forecast highs across the region this weekend are mostly in the mid to upper 70s, though some locations across southwest and western Nebraska may break into the lower 80s. This is not too unusual for this time of year, as our typical highs are right around 75 degrees. Overnight, expecting a return of stratus both nights, which will limit the overnight cool off. Current forecast lows are in the mid 50s this weekend, which remains warmer than our typical lows in the mid 40s.

However, while we may expect warmer and mostly dry conditions through the day this weekend, will need to keep an eye on Sunday night for another potential round of precipitation. Throughout the weekend, another upper level trough is expected to deepen across the western United States. GEFS spaghetti plots suggest that if the trough can deepen sufficiently to the south, that it may begin to leach some moisture off of Hurricane Odalys. Regardless on whether this trough can interact with Odalys, it should bring a stronger fetch of Pacific moisture in the upper level flow, which may bring greater impacts across the region on Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

As mentioned above in the short term discussion, an upper level trough continues to deepen across the western United States on Monday, bringing a strong fetch of Pacific moisture across the region, with some potential to bring moisture off of Hurricane Odalys as well. Additionally, as Hurricane Polo is expected to track across the Baja Peninsula, we may get an additional surge of Pacific moisture. At the surface, a lee side cyclone develops off the Front Range, slowly tracking from eastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska. This should bring another chance for precipitation across the region, with fairly strong chances of wetting precipitation across the region. In fact, both the European and GEFS ensembles bring at least a 30 to 40 percent chance for 24 hour rainfall to exceed half an inch Monday night into Tuesday afternoon across most of the region.

Uncertainty begins to build into the forecast by Tuesday, as guidance struggles to handle the interaction of Hurricane Polo and the upper level trough. Polo is expected to make its turn to the northeast on Monday, tracking across the Baja Peninsula by Tuesday. As the upper level trough tracking across the western United States pushes east, expecting that it should begin to interact with Hurricane Polo at some point on Tuesday. As the timing is still somewhat in question, as well as the intensity of the tropical system, guidance really struggles to come to a consensus on the solution. Even a look at the GEFS spaghetti plots reveals a fair amount of uncertainty within the GEFS ensemble on how the upper level jet interacts with the hurricane. This also leaves a bit of uncertainty between the GEFS and European ensembles, as both ensembles struggle with the upper level interaction. All this to say, forecast confidence remains on the lower end at this time, especially concerning potential precipitation placement and timing. For what it is worth, there is some consensus on rainfall occurring to our south, across Kansas, as well as some to our east. Whether or not precipitation makes it further west into portions of the Sandhills remains low confidence. However, there is some suggestion that we may see some precipitation out of this system, given the expected surge of moisture. Will obviously be keeping a close eye on the evolution of this system and forecast trends through the weekend, as this will largely impact our weather beyond Tuesday.

Though there is lower confidence mid week onward given the potentially complex upper level flow, for now, guidance continues to suggest more seasonal high temperatures to persist mid to late week. Rain chances remain in the forecast, but again, remain low confidence given the uncertainty in the jet stream interaction with the hurricane. For now, expecting temperatures to remain around the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is right around average for this time of year. In fact, late September into early October, our average highs are around 72 degrees, with an average low around 42. However, while highs are expected to remain around average, lows are expected to remain above average, with lows mostly remaining in the 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A stratus deck remains across most of western and north central Nebraska, bringing widespread IFR ceilings. Though some clearing is occurring on the western edges, only expecting a few hours of MVFR and brief VFR conditions across western Nebraska this afternoon. As a warm front lifts north tonight, expect another round of showers across southwest and central Nebraska, which will be accompanied by lowering ceilings again, potentially down to LIFR. With ample moisture and light winds, there is also decent potential for patchy fog tonight, especially outside of showers. Some uncertainty remains in how far north and west fog may expand, so may still need some updates in follow on TAFs for the overnight period as confidence improves one way or the other.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.