textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight, especially along and east of Highway 183. While severe weather potential has decreased, some stronger isolated storms producing small hail cannot be ruled out.

- A complex winter system tracks into the region late tonight through Saturday morning. Mixed precipitation along the cold front may cause a light glaze of ice. Behind the front, snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible.

- A return to warmer, drier conditions this weekend into early next week. Depending on how much moisture is received with Friday's system, there is potential for a return of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns early next week.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An upper level trough is tracking over southern Utah and Nevada this afternoon, providing a plume of Pacific moisture across the Plains. This is evident from increasing surface dewpoints across central and eastern portions of Kansas and Nebraska. A surface low is observed in the lee of the Rockies, and with the position of the upper level trough, should continue to intensify and track east across the Plains this evening. Another surface low is observed across eastern Wyoming, with a cold front trailing to the west.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The surface low in eastern Colorado will continue to deeper this afternoon and evening, which will be the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms across the Plains, including portions of central and eastern Nebraska. With the daytime heating and push of moisture advection across the eastern portions of the state, expecting to see instability continue to build this afternoon and evening. With this ongoing set up, the higher chances for severe weather remain east and south of the region, where more moisture will be available for thunderstorm development. However, still continue to see signals for a narrow corridor of instability aloft later tonight, which may allow for the development of elevated thunderstorms as the surface boundary lifts north. Sufficient speed shear will allow for some organization of convection. While the overall severe threat is low, if more organized convection develops along the front, could see the potential for some elevated thunderstorms, bringing a risk for small hail across portions of the forecast region later tonight. The best chances for the more organized cells appears to be mainly along and east of Highway 183, with best chances after 9 PM Central. While the Marginal Risk has been removed from the area, still cannot rule out an isolated stronger cell producing some small hail, but expect this will generally remain under 1 inch in diameter.

Will also need to keep a close eye on potential for fog redevelopment again tonight, especially along and east of Highway 83. With the plume of moisture advection across the region, and relatively light surface winds, believe that areas of fog are likely to develop overnight persisting into the mid morning hours. Be prepared for rapidly changing visibility conditions, especially during the morning commute.

However, the weather impacts don't end there. As the low pressure system across eastern Wyoming shifts east tonight, it will track the cold front into western Nebraska. As this occurs, precipitation is expected to fall initially as rain, then quickly transition to snow overnight. Snow showers are expected to develop after midnight across northwestern Nebraska, expanding south and east along the cold front into portions of the Sandhills.

There is still some uncertainty in the eastward track of the cold front Friday afternoon. However, there are increased signals for more mixed precipitation, including freezing rain, along the leading edge of the cold front. Mixed precipitation along the cold front is expected to start by early morning, then continue to track along the leading edge into the evening. This could lead to a light glaze of ice ahead of the transition to snow, which could create some hidden slippery spots on surfaces.

Also complicating the forecast, there is strong agreement in model guidance on potential for mesoscale banding in the snowfall, which may cause locally heavier amounts of snowfall. Remnant instability aloft may allow for more convectively driven snow showers, especially along and just behind the cold front. There is also potential for more frontogenetic forcing to remain, which will allow for some stronger bands to develop. While there is general consensus in banded snowfall developing, there is still a lot of uncertainty in where the band sets up, and how long the band will be. For now, confidence is highest across northwest Nebraska into the Sandhills for banded snowfall to develop, but there is potential for bands to persist further east and further south. With the higher snowfall rates in these bands, could see high end amounts around 5 to 6 inches in banded snowfall. Also worth mentioning, this is mostly expected to be more of a wet, heavy snow, which may continue to impact travel conditions. As snow is falling, especially with higher snowfall rates, strong northerly winds around 25 mph, gusting 30 to 40 mph, is expected to create areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility. This may impact both the morning and evening commutes, depending on how long higher snowfall rates persist. Snow showers are expected to persist across the region through Saturday morning, when the system finally tracks east.

With all of these hazards combined, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for northwestern Nebraska into the Sandhills on this shift. The areas in the Advisory represent the area of highest confidence of winter weather impacts at this time. However, with such high uncertainty remaining in the eastern extent of winter impacts, there may still be need for further expansion, especially for areas north of Highway 2. Worth pointing out that this Advisory is not for snow alone, but rather the combination of impacts from a light ice glaze, potential for higher snowfall totals (bands up to 5 to 6 inches) and potential blowing snow. Although there is some potential for thunderstorms tonight, the winter weather will be the main cause of impactful weather over the next 36 hours!

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

After an eventful winter weather system, an upper level ridge begins to track across western Nebraska Saturday afternoon. This will bring a return of warmer, drier conditions, with temperatures climbing back above average. In fact, by Saturday afternoon, currently expecting highs to return to the 50s, which will help melt the freshly fallen snow and ice. May need to keep an eye on certain wet surfaces Saturday night, as lows are expected to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Areas below freezing may see some icy patches develop, especially if wet surfaces remain from melting snow and ice.

Sunday through Tuesday, the upper ridge flattens, returning us to zonal flow. Temperatures are expected to surge into the upper 60s to mid 70s each day. Again, these highs remain on the cooler side of NBM guidance, so there is still potential for these highs to trend warmer as we approach early week. With a return of warmer temperatures, expect to see afternoon relative humidity values drop into the 15 to 25 percent range. Gusty winds across western Nebraska and the Sandhills are also possible. With these conditions returning, there is a potential for a return of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions late weekend into early next week. Will be keeping a close eye on the amount of moisture we receive with this winter system, as some more moisture may help limit a greater concern. However, later periods in the forecast will have higher chances, as any moisture from Friday's system begins to dissipate.

A mid week system brings another chance for some precipitation to the region. However, ensemble guidance generally keeps this at less than a 50 percent chance for measureable rainfall at this time. In fact, chances for one tenth of an inch or more are practically zero at this time with the mid week system. However, this may provide one cooler day on Wednesday, though temperatures still remain above average.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Low stratus and fog will continue to overspread terminals near and east of HWY 83 early this morning, leading to IFR/LIFR CIGs and visibilities. As a cold front pushes through by late morning, the IFR/LIFR CIGs and fog will exit off to the east. However, MVFR CIGs and snow will overspread the area into this afternoon and tonight.

Winds become northerly at all terminals prior to sunrise and strengthen. Widespread north gusts of 25 to 35kts are expected for all terminals this afternoon and evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Saturday for NEZ004-005-022>025-035-036-056-057-094.