textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected through Thursday.

- After highs today in the upper 50s to middle 60s, a back door cold front tonight will push colder air into most of the forecast area for Thursday. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 40s in the northeast to the lower 60s in far SW Nebraska.

- As the back door front pushes into the forecast area tonight, there may be some fog development on the leading edge of the cold front.

- Low chances for showers across the south Saturday night into Sunday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 1237 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

H5 pattern tonight had a fairly low amplitude pattern across the CONUS. Shortwave disturbances were noted over northern Texas, southern Utah and over central South Dakota. Further north, ridging extended from northern Montana into eastern portions of the NW Territories of Canada.WEst of this feature, a closed low was present approximately 400 miles off the coast of central British Columbia. A broad trough extended to the southwest of this feature. Another closed low was located over northern Quebec with a trough extending south into New England. At the surface tonight, a weak frontal boundary extended from western Kansas into far southeastern Nebraska. Winds were westerly or northwesterly behind the front with southerly winds south of the front. Skies were mainly clear overnight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The shortwave trough over central South Dakota will track southeast into Iowa this morning with a deepening surface low associated with this feature. High pressure over Colorado this morning will put the forecast area in a decent surface pressure gradient through early afternoon. The latest NBM ensembles have a 70 to 90% chance of reaching 30 MPH wind gusts over the Sandhills this afternoon. When this wind threshold is increased to 35 MPH, probabilities drop considerably. GFS bufkit soundings are indicative of wind gust potential in the 25 to 35 MPH range peaking around noontime. Gust potential of 25 to 35 MPH is also indicated in the 00z HRRR soln Wednesday afternoon. That being said feel confident in the wind gust potential in the initialized forecast. With highs in the lower to middle 60s and minimum RH touching 30 percent this afternoon, we could see some elevated fire weather concerns generally west of highway 83. A secondary shortwave, will slide south from the Arrowhead of Minnesota into southwestern Wisconsin tonight. This will force a back door cold front into eastern, then central Nebraska Thursday morning. On the leading edge of the cold air, some of the short range guidance including the ConsShort and HRRR are indicating the potential for fog on the leading edge of this cold air. Looking at the NBM probabilities, only a small signal exists for visby's less than 5 miles Thursday morning. That being said, will forgo fog mention for Thursday morning with this forecast package, however, did advise the oncoming shift to analyze this further as it may impact the 12z TAF forecast later this morning. Low level cold air advection will continue through midday Thursday across the eastern half of the forecast area. By afternoon, the front will stall from west of Valentine to around North Platte. High temperatures Thursday will struggle to get out of the lower 40s over Holt and Boyd Counties. Highs in the mid to upper 40s will align along a corridor from Valentine to Broken Bow. West and southwest of the front, highs Thursday will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s west of a line from Merriman to North Platte.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A closed upper low will be centered over the Great Lakes Thursday night with a large upper trough across the Eastern CONUS. This upper trough will lift into the eastern Great Lakes and New England by Saturday, as a negatively tilted upper trough digs from the Pacific Northwest into the Central and Southern Rockies. By Saturday night, a closed low is forecast to develop over the Texas panhandle with showers developing across western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Shower chances will increase across the southern half of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts look light from a trace up to 0.05 inch. On Sunday, shower chance linger into the morning as the closed upper low moves east near the KS/OK border. The bulk of the showers will remain to our south across Kansas.

Highs Friday will range from the mid 40s far eastern areas to the upper 50s far western Sandhills. On Saturday highs from 45 to 50 and upper 40s to around 50 Sunday. By Monday and Tuesday upper ridging will traverse the region with dry conditions and highs returning to the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist the next 24 hours at the KLBF and KVTN terminals. A few passing high clouds into this afternoon. Northwest winds increase after 16Z to near 32012G22KT diminishing to below 10KT by 23Z, then near calm winds this evening and overnight. A backdoor cold front could bring stratus and fog to portions of north central NE after 06Z Thursday. may need to include for KVTN in the next TAF issuance if confidence increases.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.