textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible (10-15%) each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the Sandhills into north central Nebraska with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

- Temperatures remain above normal through next week with a return to 90s for many beginning this weekend.

- Near-daily precipitation chances will persist through the middle of next week as southwesterly flow becomes established across much of the central CONUS.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

This afternoon/tonight...thunderstorms will be the main concern through the next 12 hours across western Nebraska. Early this morning, persistent convection across north central Nebraska led to fairly hefty rainfall totals with any lingering outflow boundary likely washed out. A surface cool front was slowly settling southeast into far western Nebraska and this will become the main focus for thunderstorms in the local area. A second area was forming along a moisture tongue across south central Nebraska in an area of weak low-level convergence. The increasing moisture and diurnal swing of temperatures were quickly eroding any lingering inhibition within a region of ~2500 j/kg MUCAPE but only 20-25 knots 0-6km BWD. Storms in this area remain fairly pulsey in nature with quick updraft growth capable of at least some hail before cores immediately wane. Storm motions are largely following mean mid-level flow with south-southwest to north-northeast vectors. This may lead to a few storms grazing our central counties, but severe weather is not anticipated with this activity. Later on, convection should blossom along the aforementioned frontal boundary as it stalls over the western Sandhills. Continued moisture advection with warming afternoon temperatures will erode any lingering capping by late afternoon with fairly quick development of robust convection. Recent HRRR runs have highlighted 22-00z (5-7pm CDT) for development with activity quickly shifting east off the boundary. Though instability will be greatest across South Dakota, pooling moisture along the boundary including on the north side of said feature will support 2500-3500 j/kg MLCAPE with 25 to potentially 30 knots of deep-layer shear. Limited backed flow at the surface will likely limit storm relative helicity and keep the tornado threat low. That said, modestly strong deep layer shear with strong instability will support a threat for large hail. In addition to this, increased 3km delta theta-e values and DCAPE exceeding 1000 j/kg will support a strong outflow wind threat. Agree with the Storm Prediction Center's decision to extend the Slight Risk south into Cherry County while keeping the remainder of the area within the Marginal Risk. While not expecting significant rainfall amounts, HREF probability-matched mean (PMM) QPF output highlights some locally heavier amounts in the same areas that saw heavy rain Wednesday morning. Will need to keep a close eye on this potential through the evening for any renewed or additional hydro concerns. CAMs carry precipitation through areas east of Highway 83 into early Thursday morning with lingering light chances towards daybreak Thursday. Will keep Slight Chance (< 25%) PoPs to account for this.

Thursday/Thursday night...another day of strong to severe thunderstorms appears possible on Thursday for the local area. The setup remains fairly convoluted as shortwave troughing tracks east across Kansas early in the morning. Increased warm-air advection will lead to early rain and thunderstorms east of Highway 83 but the main concern will come from the west. Developing low pressure over Wyoming will draw in southeasterly flow that will push up against the Front Range during the afternoon. Afternoon highs should range from lower 80s in the central zones to near 90F in the far west. Convection should fire in the afternoon, largely along favored areas of orographic lift outside the local area, but near zonal h5 flow should carry activity east with time into the southwest South Dakota and northwest Nebraska. A frontal zone will stall somewhere over southwest South Dakota and serve as a greater focus for development. Point soundings show inverted-v soundings supportive of damaging wind gusts. Hail will largely favor early in storm life cycles which may keep the greatest threat outside the local area. That said, severe hail certainly will be possible as well. Activity should continue again into the late evening but weaken quickly as instability decreases and capping returns to much of the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Friday and beyond...Spotty precipitation will continue through the end of the week. Zonal flow will transition to southwesterly as shortwave ridging builds by the beginning of the weekend. Temperatures will rise as heights aloft build in with a return to lower 90s for some by Saturday and continuing Sunday. A shortwave disturbance will lift north and east across the Southern Plains by late weekend. This will keep precipitation potential to the south and lead to a fairly nominal confidence level in dry conditions Saturday. The weak upper-level low will cross central/eastern Nebraska during the day Sunday and lead to fairly expansive PoPs by late afternoon/evening. Weak mid-level flow should limit any severe weather threat. Believe PoPs are a little aggressive and later forecasts will likely clean these up a bit. Heights continue to build early next week with strengthening downstream ridging. More pronounced troughing will arrive in the Pacific Northwest and will promote enhanced mid-level flow across the Great Basin and the Central Rockies. This will prove more favorable for a continuation of active weather with daily precipitation chances returning. At the same time, anomalous heights aloft will lead to very warm temperatures across the area. Median values from the blended model solution depicts a quick climb into the middle 90s by the middle of next week. Higher percentile output hints at a few locations reaching triple digits for portions of western Nebraska. This bears watching as the would potentially push heat indices near the century mark and lead to some of the first heat concerns of the season.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening into the early overnight hours. Since coverage and focus are uncertain, will handle thunderstorm mention for both terminals with a VCTS group. For overnight through Thursday afternoon, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with ceilings ranging from 15000 to 20000 FT AGL.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.