textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Expecting largely quiet conditions heading into the Thanksgiving Holiday.

- A few disturbances could bring light snow to the area for Friday through the post-holiday weekend, leading to some travel impacts.

- After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures moderate for next week with only Slight Chances (< 25%) for precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

This morning, satellite imagery denoted a mature mid-level cyclone situated over Wisconsin. On the backside of this feature, abundant dry air was entraining into the system. This was especially notable on WV imagery and supported by Tuesday evening RAOB data from UNR which shows a measured precipitable water (PWATs) value of 0.10" and < 30% mid-level humidity. This translates to largely clear skies and reasonable radiational cooling. Area temperatures range from the low teens to middle 20s west to east. Steady west-northwest winds persist though speeds west of Highway 83 have fallen to 10 mph or less with a few lingering gusts across central Nebraska in closer proximity to the departing disturbance.

For today...expecting a notable increase in mid-level moisture today as a Pacific airmass crosses the central and northern Rockies. This is being carried by predominantly west-northwesterly upper-level flow as upper-level ridging slowly moves into the Great Basin today. This will result in local height rises, limiting vertical motion through the saturated mid-levels. Even with PWATs quickly rebounding to positive anomalies, little in the way of sensible weather is expected other than abundant cloud cover. Forecast soundings show a fairly saturated profile above the lowest 2km. With the weak lift and dry low-levels to overcome, believe any threat for precipitation will be efficiently quelled. Will keep a mention of sprinkles/flurries though but have effectively removed any accumulating precipitation from the forecast. Given continued weak CAA and increasing cloud cover, did opt to decrease forecast highs today slightly. This produces middle 30s northeast to lower 40s southwest or roughly 5F below climatological values.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Thanksgiving...another quiet and fairly pleasant day is on tap for the holiday. Upper-level ridging will begin to cross the Rockies early in the day. The will continue to support subsidence aloft and keep any potential precipitation at bay. Temperatures will increase slightly with highs generally in the 40s for most and upper 30s elsewhere. Winds will remain light, at or below 10 mph for much of the day. Skies will become cloudy late in the day and through the overnight which should help hold overnight lows near to even slightly above normal Thursday night into Friday.

Friday/Friday Night...the weather turns a bit more active for the late week, likely leading to at least some travel impacts for the local area. Ridge breakdown begins by late Thursday night as the next trough dives southeast out of the Pacific Northwest. At the same time, a warm front will lift north through western Nebraska beneath increasing moisture aloft once again. Fairly strong isentropic lift, particularly around the 290-300K levels, will lead to a deeply saturated profile and the increasing PoPs...initially across our northeast zones but expanding through the northern Nebraska Panhandle during the evening. Dendritic growth zone depth remains fairly poor with a nearly isothermal layer in the lowest 2.5km at or around -5C. This suggests snow efficiency will be poor and a favored wet/heavy snow. While ensemble means advertise 0.1- 0.15" liquid for far portions of Boyd/Holt Counties, these same solutions paint generally 1.5" or less of snow anywhere in the local area which further supports a wetter snow characteristic. Winds will certainly be on the increase and the threat for blowing snow leading to visibility issues will need monitored.

Saturday/Saturday Night...approaching trough axis will eject onto the Plains by early Saturday, with peak upper-level dynamics... strong height falls, cyclonic vorticity advection, and modest upper- level divergence...arriving early in the day. This will promote lee- cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado with an east-southeast track of the surface low into central Oklahoma through the day. This will draw a strong cold front south with gusty winds within the CAA regime. While forecast soundings again show adequate deep-layer moisture, lift will be lacking and focused to the east where deeper southerly flow will reside. All this to say that while some light snow will be possible through the day, the area will reside on the western extent of the heavier QPF and thus shouldn't be anything more than a light snow event. NBM probabilities for exceeding 1" of snow range from 15 to 30 percent. Deterministic solutions, utilizing the fairly aggressive Cacher snow ratio calculation, only suggest portions of central Nebraska perhaps exceeding 2" total snow with the westward reach of this specific forecast amount somewhat in question. Folks planning travel on Saturday should certainly monitor the forecast going forward but it's certainly apparent a major event is unlikely.

Sunday...what appeared to be perhaps the day to watch is slowly regressed to a fairly tranquil day. Earlier models runs suggested broad upslope moist flow leading to expansive snow chances across the region. This has slowly be replaced with moderately strong 1030+ hPa high pressure settling into the area. The NBM has been slow to catch on to this and continues to paint expansive PoPs though values have certainly been trending down. Did manually adjust these down further citing the end of the holiday weekend. Did so by nudging towards the GFS solution, which effectively limited all PoPs to < 25% outside of far southwest Nebraska. The GFS is the last holdout on advertising light snow across southwest Nebraska and so chose this route to avoid completely removing mention at this time. Even so, believe most if not all locations should remain dry for Sunday and leave the area reasonably calm for folks conducting their post- Thanksgiving return trip. Sunday also appears to be the coldest day of the forecast, with highs only reaching the 20s to low 30s. For LBF/VTN, this is nearing the 10th Percentile in each respective site climatology for the calendar day. Certainly won't threaten any records, but will be cold for travelers and caution is advised as wind chills only reach the middle teens during the daytime.

Monday and beyond...colder temperatures hold on for Monday but will begin to moderate slightly to start December. Many locations should exceed the freezing mark Monday, with further climbs to the middle 30s and middle 40s by Tuesday. General northwesterly flow will develop by early Tuesday as Southern Plains troughing settles east towards the lower Mississippi Valley. Then, as the next trough digs into the Great Basin and stalls, flow aloft will turn more zonal. A split flow pattern will develop towards the middle of next week and this should keep the area devoid of any notable precipitation chances. Temperatures should return to above normal values with dry conditions favored.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Some light precipitation may impact portions of southwest Nebraska this afternoon, but impacts should remain minimal. The only major impact should be some lowering of ceilings, especially across southwest Nebraska and KLBF. Expect ceilings to drop to near 4000 feet through the overnight before rising back into VFR. Ceilings across northern Nebraska may drop to 5000 feet by late afternoon through the evening before rising. Otherwise, winds remain under 10 knots through Thursday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.