textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier conditions arrives for Sunday with seasonable afternoon highs.

- A few strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday, favoring north central Nebraska.

- Persistent unsettled weather continues much of next week with afternoon/evening thunderstorm potential each day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms continue to shift east along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. This is occurring within a plume of strong theta-e advection ahead of a meso-low arriving into far southwest Nebraska. This should sustain convection well through the overnight hours but the focus should gradually lift north and east into eastern South Dakota and leave the area dry by daybreak.

Sunday/Sunday Night...on the backside of the departing meso-low, northwesterly flow should prevail for much of the area. Despite the northwesterly flow, clearing skies should allow for maximum insolation and little change in the day-over-day temperatures. Afternoon highs should again reach the upper 80s to potentially middle 90s in south central Nebraska. Despite these warmer temperatures, dew points should mix out in the afternoon to the 60s and keep heat indices below the century mark. As enhanced mid-level flow continues to lift north and east out of the central Rockies, increasing cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado will lift another warm front through western Nebraska. This will interact with lingering higher dew points along the NE/SD border and result in a focus for thunderstorm development within a strongly sheared unstable environment. CAM runs from late Saturday evening show developing thunderstorms near the Pine Ridge quickly lifting northeast. Do believe a few storms in our far northwest zones are possible and will keep Chance PoPs (up to 30%) for the Highway 20 corridor in northern Sheridan County with slightly decreased values further east along Highway 20 into northern Cherry County. The former of these values generally aligns well with the latest SPC SWO Day 1 where a Marginal Risk is in place with the greatest concern further north where a Slight Risk is in place. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the main concerns with any activity. Temperatures tonight should fall into the upper 50s west to lower 70s east.

Monday/Monday Night...deep troughing will continue to promote southwesterly flow aloft with an approaching upper-level low across the Northern Plains. A frontal boundary will settle south into western Nebraska and separate drier air to the northwest and a very humid warm sector to the east. With afternoon highs once again climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s, will need to be mindful of the heat and humidity and if it leads to hazardous heat levels. For now, heat indices are only progged to reach the middle 90s in our far east but various deterministic solutions suggest higher mid- afternoon dew points than what is currently forecast so will need to monitor this potential going forward. The stalled boundary will serve as another source for afternoon thunderstorm development within a strongly sheared unstable environment. Forecast soundings suggest some capping issues but as a strengthening low-level jet sets up, believe rich theta-e air will overrun this low-level boundary and lead to late thunderstorm chances which may persist into the early morning on Tuesday. This will favor far north central Nebraska into southeast South Dakota. MU parcels are rooted around 1- 2km AGL and so the main threats will likely be large hail. This will help keep temperatures mild over the northeast zones while much of western Nebraska should see lows fall into the middle 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Tuesday...Heights should begin to build across the Central and Northern Plains as the parent h5 low lifts up into southern Canada. Southwesterly flow will persist across the Central Rockies and promote lee troughing and steady south to southeasterly winds at the surface. The result will be rich low-level moisture continuing to advect up onto the High Plains and persistent thunderstorm potential. NBM paints 30-50% potential for exceeding 0.10" QPF late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This aligns with the inherited 30-60% PoPs from the model blend stretching from near KSNY to KOFK. While mid-level flow will certainly be on the downtrend, sufficient shear and instability should be in place to support the threat for organized convection.

Wednesday and beyond...persistent troughing out west will prolong southwesterly flow over the central CONUS beyond midweek. With the lack of a significant frontal boundary to modify the local airmass, expect humid afternoons to lead to late afternoon/evening thunderstorm potential each day in the extended period. Expecting moderate to strong instability to develop each day but shear will be somewhat in question and may hinder the overall severe weather potential. Nevertheless, some day-to-day risk appears possible but specific details may hinge on the result of the previous day's activity so uncertainty will remain on the higher side until we get to within 48 hours of each respective day. Median daytime highs suggest a steady warm up from Wednesday through the following weekend with higher percentile outputs suggesting some locations threatening triple digits by next weekend. For now, the deterministic values hug closer to the median output but will need to monitor trends in the coming days for the potential for greater heat concerns by late week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Stratus persists into late morning across northern Nebraska, with low-end VFR and MVFR CIGs expected to continue. By this afternoon, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow morning for all of western and north central Nebraska.

Winds become southeasterly this afternoon and tonight, at 10 to 15kts. Southerly LLWS is expected to develop overnight for all terminals as well, and persist into early tomorrow morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.