textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall chances begin to increase Saturday, peaking Sunday afternoon into Monday. Wetting rains are expected east of the panhandle.

- The threat for showers will continue into Monday night, with lighter amounts of precipitation expected.

- Mainly drier conditions are expected beyond Monday night with only minor chances for precipitation in eastern areas.

- Temperatures will be cool this weekend into Monday with highs in the upper 40s to 50s. Temperatures warm back to more seasonal levels Tuesday through Friday with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A highly amplified H5 pattern was noted across the CONUS this morning. Ridging extended from eastern Texas north-northeast into southwestern Ontario and southeastern Manitoba. East of this ridge, low pressure was located over the Canadian Maritimes. Low pressure was also noted over southeastern North Carolina and a shortwave was noted just offshore of the big bend of Florida. West of the ridge, low pressure was noted over southwestern Idaho. A trough extended south, then southwest of this feature to around 300 miles off the coast of San Diego CA. A strong shortwave was also noted at the base of this trough per satellite imagery. North of the Idaho low, a northern stream trough extended from southwestern portions of the NW Territories of Canada, south into southern British Columbia. At the surface this afternoon, low pressure was located over south central Montana. A cold front extended west of this low with an inverted trough extending north of the low. South of the low was a trough of low pressure which extended south southeast into eastern Wyoming and northern Colorado. A weak secondary trough was present from northeastern Colorado into the western Sandhills. Southerly wind were strong this afternoon and were gusting up to 45 MPH at Valentine as of 2 PM CDT. Temperatures ranged from 76 degrees at North Platte, to 85 degrees at Ogallala.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A deep trough of low pressure aloft will slowly traverse the SW CONUS and southern Rockies, emerging onto the northern high plains over the next 84 hours. This slow moving system, preceded by a northern stream trough and slow moving cold front will bring a good chance for wetting rainfall to western and north central Nebraska through this time period.

This evening and tonight...A prefrontal trough is expected to reside across northwestern portions of the forecast area this evening. Weak convergence INVOF this boundary, coupled with some weak mid level warm air advection, may initiate some isolated showers/embedded thunderstorms INVOF the boundary tonight. Initial activity along the surface trough is not expected to last much after mid evening as we loose surface heating. However, a secondary chance for isolated precipitation exists further east over northern areas overnight. Aided by a low level jet oriented from south central into northeastern Nebraska, wouldn't be surprised if some isolated showers develop along the pre-frontal trough as it migrates east overnight. This activity would be focused primarily over the eastern Sandhills and northeastern portions of the forecast area. Overnight, a decent northern stream low will cross Alberta into Saskatchewan, forcing a cold front into northwestern Nebraska. This feature should make it into the western third of the forecast area by daybreak Saturday. In advance of the front, another mild night is expected generally east of a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Further west behind the front, strong cold air advection will lead to lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

Saturday thorugh Sunday...The cold front will push through the forecast area by mid afternoon Saturday, stalling just off to the east and southeast of the forecast area. During the day Saturday, mid level winds will remain southerly above the H750 level. This will lead to increasing moisture advection in the mid and upper levels, leading to increasing cloud cover during the day Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, mid level warm air advection will increase in advance of an approaching lead shortwave. As the boundary layer becomes moist north of the cold front, showers are expected to develop late afternoon. ATTM, the best chances Saturday afternoon are generally east of a line from Ogallala to Bassett. With a fairly dry boundary layer noted north of the front per forecast soundings, it will take time to top down saturate the column Saturday. This will limit QPF's through sunset Saturday. ATTM the latest NBM probabilistic forecast has a 40 to 60 percent chance of 6 hr precipitation exceeding 0.10 inches-ending at 7 PM CDT Saturday-east of a line from North Platte to O'Neill. Moving west of this line, probabilities fall off quickly, approaching zero percent along an Ogallala to Bassett line. The upper level trough and low will track slowly from northwestern Arizona into the Four Corners Saturday night into Sunday. Mid level forcing and moisture will spread north into northwestern Nebraska and west into the panhandle Saturday night. With isentropic lift increasing and a moist boundary layer finally noted in western portions of the forecast area, the threat for precipitation will increase into Sunday. By Sunday evening, there is a near 100 percent chance of reaching measurable precipitation across the entire forecast area (NBM ensembles forecast for 24 hrs ending at 7 PM CDT Sunday). When this threshold is increased to 0.50 inches the probabilities only fall off to 70 percent from southwestern Nebraska into the central Sandhills. West and east of this area, probabilities are still at least 30 percent of exceedance for the remainder of the forecast area. The notion of heavy precipitation is hinted in the latest ECMF EFI and SOT forecast which highlights the threat for heavy rain Saturday night and Sunday from southwestern Nebraska into the central Sandhills with an EFI of 0.7 to 0.9 and a SOT around 1. ATTM, the initialized pop grids have a broad swath of 80 to near 100 percent pops across the area Sunday. Given the synoptic setup, good model agreement and moisture availability, these pops seem on track for now. Speaking of moisture availability, the latest NAM 12 and GFS solns this morning already have PWATS above 1.00 inches. This is well above climatology for this time of year and eclipses the climatological max per sounding data. With the PWAT from our 18z raob this afternoon being 1.13 inches, the NAM and GFS solns seem to have a decent handle on the deep layer moisture situation.

Sunday night into Monday...The upper level low will lift from the Four Corners into northeastern Wyoming, far NW Nebraska and SW South Dakota by Monday afternoon. Broad isentropic lift will continue Sunday night across the area with continued chances for precipitation. The NBM forecast did initialize with some lower 30 in the northwest Monday morning for low temperatures. ATTM, the initialized NBM forecast has some precipitation chances across the northwest, co-located with the near subfreezing temperatures in the Pine Ridge Monday morning. Looking at the MET and MAV guidance for Pine Ridge Monday morning, lows range from the mid 20s (MET) and mid 30s (MAV). The NBM initialized forecast had a low of 29 for Gordon Monday morning which was well below the MAV guidance. With expected cloud cover and the fact this upper level low is not phased with the northern stream at this point, feel highs Monday may be on the low side of the envelope. That being said, trended the NBM forecast a degree or two higher and kept precipitation all liquid in all of the forecast area but mentioned a mix of rain/snow in the far northern most portion Sheridan County.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The upper level low will transition northeast into the eastern Dakotas Monday night. This will lead to drier conditions on Tuesday. On Tuesday night, a secondary shortwave trough crosses the central Rockies into the Dakotas. This may bring a chance for precipitation mainly to the eastern half of the state. Based on the forecast trajectory of the shortwave, the western half of the state would see mainly dry conditions with this system. Currently the latest deterministic GFS and EC solns do have some minor differences in the track of this midweek system and the EC would favor a more westward extent to precipitation chances. For now, given the differences, the latest WPC forecast seems on track. Wednesday and Thursday appear dry and seasonal ATTM with another trough deepening across the western CONUS late next week. This could lead to an active pattern across the central CONUS next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Gusty southerly winds will continue through the early evening hours at both terminals with gusts up to 35 KTS possible during the late afternoon hours. Winds will diminish somewhat this evening. Overnight into Saturday morning, an abrupt wind shift to the north will occur around 10 to 12Z at the KVTN terminal and 12 to 14Z at the KLBF terminal. After scattered high clouds through tonight, skies will cloud up behind the front Saturday morning with broken ceilings around 10000 FT AGL expected.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.