textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Following a largely dry daytime, strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Monday evening and late into the overnight with large hail and damaging winds the main concerns.

- A complicated set-up on Tuesday will lead to cooler temperatures and steady rain/thunderstorms in the afternoon with an outside chance of strong to severe thunderstorm development for portions of central Nebraska in the late afternoon/evening.

- Wednesday onward, a warmer, drier pattern settles over the area. Temperatures will remain warmer than average, with little to no precipitation expected into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Early this morning, an outflow boundary continued to track south and east through much of west central Nebraska. This boundary was associated with convection over western South Dakota that dissipated around I-90 with continued momentum allowing it to track through the local area. Subtle increases in winds have been observed behind this boundary but little else in the way of changes to the sensible weather are expected for most location. Temperatures have largely fallen into the lower 70s and further cooling with values reaching the 60s and even some middle to upper 50s is expected.

Monday/Monday Night...as this boundary continues to shuffle southeast, it should interact with greater moisture and thus greater instability across central and northeast Nebraska. This may help sustain some weak convection lifting north and east out of northwest Kansas. Coverage in the local area should be fairly limited and as such have PoPs capped at 20% southeast of a Hayes Center to Broken Bow line. This activity will likely shuffle off to the east by daybreak leaving the area dry. Beneath broad upper troughing stalled over southern Canada, enhanced mid-level flow will persist for the northern and central Plains. The boundary from early morning Monday should stall south across western Kansas up through southeast Nebraska. This will focus most the daytime rain and thunderstorm chances to the south. Forecast highs for Monday saw a slight boost with widespread middle 80s to lower 90s. As upper ridging from the south begins to progress east, height falls from an approaching mid- level disturbance will overspread the area late tonight. Modest low pressure will form and lift the stalled frontal boundary north as a warm front. Though warm air advection may lead to some showers and general thunderstorms in the evening, the main wave itself will be a late arrival and precipitation potential will largely favor late evening into early morning Tuesday. Instability will remain fairly strong well into the overnight thus some strong to severe concerns will linger. Forecast soundings depict elevated instability supportive of some severe hail potential so will continue to message overnight concerns. With ample mid-level moisture, believe some locally heavy rain will be possible with both NAM12 and ECMWF solutions showing spotty amounts nearing 0.50". This aligns with NBM probabilities where showing 30-40% probabilities of exceeding 0.25". Even with the rain and cloud cover, temperatures should still fall into the 60s for most locations to begin the day Tuesday.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...upper level wave will continue to lift north and east across western Nebraska through the morning. At the surface, a weak low pressure center will form and travel up the baroclinic zone through southwest and north central Nebraska. A resulting h85 low will form and lead to increasing backside convergence and prolonged precipitation into the afternoon hours. The lingering precipitation will hold temperatures back quite a bit and as such afternoon highs were lowered. Though some MET guidance was blended into the forecast, the going forecast stops well short of the lower 70s it advertises from the central Panhandle up through the northern Sandhills. HREF guidance is fairly pessimistic that our northwestern zones surpass 80F for the afternoon highs. The going forecast calls for upper 70s northwest to middle 80s central to low 90s southeast in central Nebraska. As high pressure builds in later in the day, increasing low-level lift along the frontal boundary should allow for additional thunderstorm development from southwest through east central Nebraska. How far north this potential extends is somewhat uncertain but given proximity to the high pressure system and the cooler temperatures, do anticipate this to favor areas south and east of the local CWA. This outcome is far from written in stone however so folks are advised to continue monitoring later forecasts for up to date thinking. As it stands now, dry conditions largely resume by the evening and will continue through the overnight hours with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

On Wednesday, upper level ridging is expected to amplify across the region, which will help usher in a warmer, drier pattern. Guidance remains in strong agreement on this ridging building by mid week lasting into next week. A look at GEFS spaghetti plots builds fairly high confidence in this pattern, as even though the solutions begin to diverge by Friday, all of the solutions bring upper level ridging somewhere across the Northern Plains. Cluster analysis also remains in strong agreement, highlighting upper level ridging remaining through next week. This will help keep warmer than average temperatures across the region into next week. For reference, our typical highs are around 85 degrees, becoming 84 by the weekend. Current forecast highs are mostly in the upper 80s to mid 90s, though some portions of southwest Nebraska may see highs push into the upper 90s before the end of the week. These highs are consistent with the 75th to 90th percentile high temperatures compared to our local climatology.

The stronger upper level ridging will also help keep precipitation chances fairly limited Wednesday onward. LAtest NBM guidance does still keep some slight chance PoPs, generally less than 20 percent, each night this weekend. However, based on ensemble guidance, any precipitation chances will be for fairly light precipitation. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a less than 20 percent chance of precipitation exceeding one tenth of an inch late week into the weekend. Better chances, generally 30 to 40 percent, are seen for one hundredth of an inch or greater. Deterministic guidance does suggest potential for some weaker shortwaves to track through the main upper level flow, which could support some very light precipitation, and tend to think this is what the NBM is keying on for potential precipitation. Still, if anything were to fall, based on current guidance, would expect it to be very light.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. Throughout the day, mid to high cloud cover is expected to increase, with ceilings remaining VFR. Winds are expected to remain mostly light and variable, with a slow, subtle shift from more northerly to more southerly by the evening. Late this evening into the overnight hours, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and track across the region. These storms bring the risk for gusty and erratic winds, as well as potential for brief, localized impacts to ceilings and visibility. At this time, guidance keeps ceilings VFR, so may make adjustments as confidence builds in ceilings with expected thunderstorms.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.