textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday.

- A passing cool front Wednesday will bring the potential for measurable rain (20-50%) across northern Nebraska.

- After today, expect mainly above normal temperatures through Friday. Fire weather concerns will increase Tuesday, with the greatest concerns Thursday and Fridah.

- Much cooler for Saturday and Sunday with seasonal to below normal temperartures forecast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Strong upper level ridging will remains in place across the western US through Tuesday night. This will keep conditions dry and allow for warming temperatures to continue. Temperatures begin to return to near normals today as warm air advection begins to push into western Nebraska. Here, mainly west of US-83, expect highs to rise into the mid 50s. Further to the east, lingering cold air advection combined with melting snow will limit temperatures to the mid 30s. By Tuesday, warm air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the 8 to 12 C range into Nebraska. This will result in widespread highs in the mid 50s into the low to mid 60s across southwest Nebraska. There is some concern that as a weak trough slides across the northern Plains Tuesday afternoon, some colder air will filter into the region by the afternoon. This may limit highs on Tuesday across northern Nebraska into the upper 40s to low 50s. While confidence is low in this scenario, have made some minor adjustments to the going forecast to start to reflect the potential cooler air. For lows, temperatures return to above normal(mid teens) dropping only into the mid to upper 20s through Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A robust, mid level disturbance will ride southeast off of a low amplitude ridge Wednesday. As this feature tracks from northern Montana into northeastern Wyoming during the day Wednesday, surface cyclogenesis will take place over northwestern Nebraska. Extending east and west of the low will be a frontal boundary with the arctic air mass approximately 100 to 200 miles north of the front. South of the front, west winds and a very warm airmass over the front ranges of southeastern Wyoming and Colorado, will transition east Wednesday. The combination of gusty west winds, strong downslope and forecast H85 temps of 3 in the northeast to 14C in the SW across the area, will lead to highs in the lower 50s in the northeast, to around 70 in SW Nebraska. Gusty winds, the strongest of which will reside across the western Sandhills into SW Nebraska may approach 45 MPH during the afternoon Wednesday. ATTM, min RH in these areas is around 25 percent. This, combined with gusty winds Wednesday afternoon will lead to elevated and even near critical fire weather concerns in these areas. The front will track through far northern Nebraska early afternoon, passing through the forecast area by 00z Thursday. Behind the front, weak mid level forcing will lead to a minor threat for precipitation across the area. ATTM, the best forcing resides over northern into eastern portions of the forecast area where the NBM operational soln initialized with a broad area of 30 to 50% POPS north of a line from North Platte to Oshkosh. This seems reasonable given the latest deterministic GFS and NAM solns and no changes are planned to these NBM POPS. By no means will this be a drought buster as the latest NBM ensembles indicate only a 40 percent chance of QPF>0.05 inches north of a line from Broken Bow to Merriman. When this threshold is increased to 0.10 inches, the probability of exceedance falls to less than 20 percent.

Thursday and Friday...A clipper system will slide southeast across southern Canada on Thursday forcing a warm front east across the forecast area. Highs will reach into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area. Westerly winds will increase behind the warm front Thursday afternoon and may gust 15 to 25 MPH in the eastern Panhandle and far SW Nebraska late in the day. Min RH in these areas will reach 20 to 25 percent in the afternoon leading to elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. Friday will see even warmer temperatures across the forecast area ahead of an approaching arctic front. With forecast highs running 5 to 10 degrees warmer, min RH of 15 to 20 percent across the forecast area and wind gust potential of 25 to 35 MPH, near critical to critical fire weather conditions appear possible west of highway 83.

Saturday and Sunday...For the past couple of nights the deterministic EC and Canadian solns have pushed a strong arctic cold front through the forecast area Friday night with the GFS being a hold out. With tonight's GFS run, it is now advertising a decent arctic arctic cold frontal passage Friday night. The NBM tonight initialized with highs in the 30s and 40s for Saturday and Sunday and this is a good starting point. However with the operational NBM forecast now well above the median highs of the ensembles, its new forecast for highs appears to be on the high side of the envelop. Looking at the H85 temps behind the front Saturday, 20s and 30s may be more realistic for highs both days which has begun to show up in the EC statistical guidance.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Skies will be mainly clear over the next 24 hours with a few to scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Southerly winds will begin to increase later this morning with gusts up to 25 KTS at the KVTN terminal this afternoon. Some low level wind shear will be possible at the KVTN terminal, mainly this morning from 14 to 18z before surface winds increase midday. Winds will diminish to 10 KTS or less after 00z Tuesday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.