textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain and snow is possible for areas west of HWY 83 on Friday. Any accumulations are expected to remain light at this time.

- Cold lows in the 20s are expected both Saturday and Sunday morning across all of western and north central Nebraska.

- A combination of mild temperatures, gusty northwest winds, and low humidity will lead to near critical to critical fire weather concerns Saturday.

- Critical or near critical fire weather concerns could develop both Monday and Wednesday of next week.

- Increasing humidity late Wednesday into Thursday will combine with a slow moving cold front and bring an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Currently, a cold front is quickly pushing south across portions of the Sandhills, with northerly gusts as strong as 45 to 55 miles per hour with its passage. Temperatures range from the upper 60s across southwest Nebraska to the low 40s in northwest Nebraska.

This cold front should quickly clear the area prior to sunrise, with the strong cold advection persisting through much of the day today. Add this to persistent cloudiness, and a much colder day is on tap across western and north central Nebraska. In fact, highs today will struggle to leave the middle to upper 40s for all. By this afternoon, low level lapse rates will steepen substantially across much of western Nebraska, promoting as much as a couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. As the H7 trough axis swings through this afternoon, scattered shower development is anticipated as mid-level FGEN increases. With the aforementioned instability present, enhanced precipitation rates and even a few lightning strikes can be expected with any showers. Precipitation types are a little trickier given marginal thermos, but would anticipated a mixed p-type this afternoon. This could be some combination of graupel, snow, rain, and sleet, as is often the case with very cold temperatures aloft and at least meager MUCAPE. Warm antecedent soil temperatures casts some doubt on how much of this would cause issues on area roadways, though brief, significant visibility reductions could lead to hazardous travel regardless. This will need to be monitored closely today. Any liquid amounts look meager at best from this precip, restricted to less than 0.10" west of HWY 83.

Surface high pressure then begins to spill south into the area tonight, leading to clearing skies and weakening winds. This will promote efficient radiational cooling across the area, with much colder lows in the 20s expected by Saturday morning.

The surface high then begins to exit off to the southeast by Saturday afternoon, with strengthening west-northwest winds across the area then expected. This brings a return of at least weak warm advection, boosting highs back into the 50s to low 60s. Unfortunately, this also ushers in lower dewpoints, and humidity looks to bottom out as low as 12 to 20 percent Saturday afternoon. This combination of mild, very dry, and windy conditions looks to bring a return of near critical to critical fire concerns, and trends will need to be monitored closely for potential fire weather headlines. Surface high pressure then again spills into the area Saturday night, promoting cold lows in the 20s across all of western and north central Nebraska again

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Upper level ridging will be translating eastward across the Rockies Sunday. Across our area, northwest flow aloft will be present downstream of the ridge. At the surface, the center of surface high pressure will be moving out of southern Canada and into northern Minnesota. This will drive a weak backdoor cold front into portions of north central Nebraska. This should limit highs to the mid 60s across that area. Meanwhile, highs reaching the mid 70s are likely elsewhere. The lack of wind Sunday should limited fire weather concerns despite very low afternoon humidity values.

Monday, a ridge breakdown occurs, a classic set-up for near or critical fire weather concerns. This indeed appears to be the case, as gusty south to southwest winds combine with humidity well below 20% and highs climbing into the 80s.

Tuesday, the ridge aloft appears it will build northward once again, with the axis centered over the western High Plains. Again, it will be a very warm day with low humidity, but the lack of much of a surface pressure gradient should keep winds on the lighter side, and limit the overall fire weather concerns.

An upper level trough approaches the area from the west Wednesday. Surface low pressure will deepen in response across eastern Colorado/Wyoming. A very warm day (highs mid to upper 80s) along with gusty south winds can be expected due to the deepening surface low to the west. Appears to be another good set-up for fire weather concerns. The difference Wednesday is that low-level moisture/humidity will be on the increase, with dew points possibly climbing into the lower and middle 50s by afternoon. This higher humidity could limit a critical weather threat.

Attention turns to thunderstorm potential later Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. It appears the upper level trough will only slowly move to the northeast and potentially close off across eastern Montana Thursday. This would allow for a continued increase in dew points/humidity along and ahead of a slow moving cold front. Will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A strong cold front has crossed the area. Expect northerly winds of 20-30 kts gusts to 40 kts through most of the day before quickly decreasing early this evening. Also expecting some MVFR ceilings as humidity increases behind the front. These ceilings should be present from around 12Z through 18Z or so. An area of at least scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (with a mix of rain and snow) are expected this afternoon, generally along and mainly west of Highway 83.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.