textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected across all of western and north central Nebraska today, due to a combination of abnormally warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and very strong westerly winds. Across western Nebraska, westerly wind gusts up to 65 mph are expected this afternoon.

- This evening, a cold front brings a second round of strong winds across north central Nebraska. Northwesterly wind gusts behind the front of 55 to 60 mph are expected this evening into the overnight hours.

- Near critical fire weather concerns are expected again Saturday, as warm, dry, and windy conditions continue across the area.

- Light rain and snow is possible behind a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. At this time, the greatest snow accumulations are expected for areas along and north of HWY 20.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Strong downslope flow today will bring strong westerly winds and warm air advection across the region. This will usher in abnormally warm high temperatures, with highs roughly 20 to 25 degrees above normal. In fact, highs today are expected to push into the 70s across most of the region, with some locations in southwest Nebraska possibly pushing into the upper 70s. These very warm temperatures will also bring very low relative humidity this afternoon, with minimum values dropping into the 13 to 23 percent range.

In addition to the very warm temperatures and low humidity, the downslope flow will also bring strong westerly winds across the entire region this afternoon. The strongest winds generally remain along and west of Highway 83 this afternoon, with sustained westerly winds around 35 to 45 mph and gusts up to 65 mph. East of Highway 83, winds still remain strong, with sustained west winds of 25 to 30 mph gusting to 45 mph. For areas west of Highway 83, a High Wind Warning goes into effect this morning through the evening. Strong westerly winds will make for difficult travel on north-south oriented roads due to crosswinds. Additionally, and more importantly, the combination of very strong winds, abnormally warm temperatures, and low relative humidity will lead to critical fire weather conditions across all of western and north central Nebraska. In addition to the High Wind Warning, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska this afternoon into the evening. In fact, the entire state of Nebraska is under a Red Flag Warning this afternoon, as very widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected. Any fire starts this afternoon will rapidly grow and spread, becoming difficult to contain.

As afternoon transitions into the evening, a cold front tracks in from the north. With this cold front, another round of strong winds tracks into the region, this time across portions of north central Nebraska. Behind the front, strong sustained northwesterly winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected, with winds gusting 55 to 60 mph. With increased confidence in these higher winds, have issued a second High Wind Warning for areas east of Highway 83, and mostly along and north of Highway 2 for Thursday evening into early Friday morning. This will have some overlap with the ongoing Red Flag Warning in the early evening, so again, any fire starts will rapidly grow and spread. Winds are expected to finally diminish shortly before sunrise Friday morning.

As for Friday, a temperature gradient sets up across the region. Cooler temperatures are expected across north central Nebraska in the wake of the cold front. Highs across north central Nebraska are expected to drop into the 40s. Across the Sandhills, highs are expected to remain in the 50s. Across southwest Nebraska, warmer temperatures remain, driven by some additional downslope flow, where highs in the 60s are expected, with a few locations potentially breaking into the lower 70s. The warmer temperatures across far southwest Nebraska will contribute to lower relative humidity values in the 20 to 25 percent range. Southerly winds are expected to remain around 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph at times. This may lead to some additional elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across southwest Nebraska on Friday afternoon. This threat will largely be driven on the eastern extent of stronger wind gusts, so will continue to refine the forecast in the next few forecast cycles.

Friday night, a band of showers is expected to track south across South Dakota, bringing slight chance to chance PoPs across far north central Nebraska. If precipitation is realized with this system, expect that precipitation initially starts as rain/snow mix, before switching over to snow as overnight lows plummet into the 20s. However, any precipitation amounts are expected to remain very light, with a dusting of snow expected at most. This would roughly be a couple hundredths of an inch liquid, so very little in terms of wetting precipitation.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Surface low pressure will deepen across eastern Colorado/Wyoming Saturday morning, before ejecting east into western Nebraska and Kansas by Saturday evening. This leads to a constricting surface pressure gradient across the area, leading to increasing southerly flow ahead of this low, and westerly flow behind a surface trough moving into the Sandhills in the afternoon. The greatest fire concerns are expected to develop behind this surface trough, as the strong downslope winds overlap warm and very dry conditions. Westerly wind gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour can be expected Saturday afternoon, with the strongest winds across the western Sandhills.

By Saturday night, a cold front will push through the area as the surface low ejects east, leading to increasing cold advection. This will promote ample mechanical mixing to lead to strong northerly winds through the overnight hours, with widespread gusts of 30 to 40 miles per hour Sunday morning and into the afternoon. Strengthening mid-level FGEN will also lead to snow development across southern South Dakota and far northern Nebraska. At this time, confidence in impactful snow accumulations is highest north of the area across South Dakota, though increasing probabilities stretch further south into portions of northern Nebraska. For now, snow amounts locally look highest near and north of HWY 20, though minor adjustments in storm track will lead to drastic changes in snow amounts. This will need to be monitored closely, with a sharp gradient expected on the southern side of the axis of heaviest snowfall.

Attention then turns to increasing fire concerns, as guidance has begun to hint at very anomalous upper ridging as we head towards midweek. Temperatures quickly moderate back to above average by Tuesday, with the potential for highs approaching record territory for Wednesday into late week. Ensemble guidance hints at rather impressive upper ridge, with H5 heights approaching climo maximums across much of the western and central US next week. This is further reinforced by very warm low level temperatures, with ensemble guidance suggesting H7-H85 temperatures approaching the 99th percentile climo as well. This points to impressive warmth for late March, with probabilities for even highs approaching monthly records beginning to creep upwards. Trends will need to be monitored closely, as the prolonged record warmth could spell both a return of fire concerns and could worsen ongoing drought conditions across the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Thursday night across all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds quickly strengthen from the west Thursday morning, with widespread gusts of 45 to 55kts for all terminals Thursday afternoon. A cold front then passes through the area after sunset Thursday, leading to strong northerly winds with its passage. Another period of 45 to 55kt gusts are expected into Thursday night, particularly for north central Nebraska terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Fire concerns greatly increase this afternoon, with widespread critical fire concerns expected. Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dry air and lead to humidity falling to as low as 12 to 20 percent across the entire area. Very strong winds are expected to develop as well, with sustained westerly winds of 35 to 45 mph and gusts up to 65 mph. East of Highway 83, winds still remain strong, with sustained west winds of 25 to 30 mph, gusting to 40 mph. This will overlap the low humidity and lead to critical fire conditions across all of western and north central Nebraska. This will lead to erratic fire spread and rapid fire growth. A strong cold front will also pass through the area this evening, leading to a wind shift from west to northwest. A corridor of very strong northwest winds (60+ miles per hour) is expected across northern Nebraska with its passage. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska today.

Elevated to near critical fire concerns persist into Friday and Saturday, primarily across western and southwest Nebraska. A brief cooldown on Sunday lessens fire concerns, before temperatures quickly warm and could challenge record highs by middle next week. This could mark a return of elevated to near critical conditions to the area yet again.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ004-005-022>025-035-036- 056-057-094. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM CDT Friday for NEZ006>010-026>029.