textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions persist through the morning, at which time a cold front tracks through the region. Winds will remain gusty out of the north, keeping near critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon and evening.

- A brief cool off is expected on Friday, but temperatures quickly return to above average this weekend into early next week. As temperatures warm this weekend, fire weather concerns also increase.

- Potential for a pattern change in the middle of the week. Confidence remains low in the track and timing of the system, but this may bring the next best chances for precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A cold front will approach northern Nebraska around 09 to 12z Thursday, approaching southwestern Nebraska around 15z. There is decent agreement in frontal timing with tonight's 00z HRRR and 00z NAM solns. Compared to last night's model runs, frontal timing seems to be faster with tonight's model solns compared to last night's. With the faster frontal timing, went ahead and lowered highs for Thursday and brought highs more in line with the MAV guidance and 18z MET guidance. Believe the 00z MET guidance tonight is way cool with its high of 53 for North Platte. The previous MET guidance, had a high of 63 Thursday. Behind the exiting front, a secondary cold front will enter the forecast area later tonight. In advance of this secondary front, weak forcing will be present across the eastern panhandle and far southern forecast area this evening. There is some support for slight chance pops from the NBM ensembles tonight as they are indicating a 20 to 30 percent chance of measurable pcpn Thursday evening. Overnight, cold high pressure will nose into the Dakotas. Very dry air will push into the forecast area overnight Thursday night into Friday. Lows Thursday night will bottom out in the 20s with highs on Friday struggling to reach the lower 50s. With the very dry air in place minimum RH will reach 15 to 20 percent Friday afternoon. However, with the cool temperatures and light winds, fire weather concerns will be minimal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Upper level ridging builds across the region on Saturday. This will usher in a return of warming temperatures Saturday and into early next week. With the latest forecast cycle, continuing to see temperatures trending warmer this weekend. For Saturday, most areas along and west of Highway 83 reach into the 70s, with 60s generally to the east. With the warmer conditions, expected dry conditions as well, with afternoon humidity values in the 15 to 20 percent range across the region Saturday afternoon. Additionally, strong southerly winds are expected across the region, with gusts up to 35 mph. Given all this setting up, expecting at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon across most of the region.

Another hot day is expected on Sunday, as anomalous 850mb temperatures are expected across the region. Still, the NBM deterministic remains on the lower end of guidance, with this current forecast near the 10th percentile. For reference, the spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles puts highs in the 90s (90 to 94 for North Platte, specifically). Given the anomalous 500mb heights, 850mb temperatures, a strong signal in the EFI/SoT for high temperatures, and the NBM remaining around the 10th percentile, believe that highs on Sunday are quite likely to be warmer than the current forecast. In fact, would not be surprised to see highs trend warmer, bringing forecast highs in the 90s by Sunday. This will again bring low relative humidity across a large portion of the region, with afternoon humidity as low as 10 to 15 percent. Still some question on the strength of wind gusts Sunday afternoon, so will be keeping a close eye on Sunday for additional fire weather concerns.

Conditions remain warm and dry on Monday, but more uncertainty builds into the forecast. A shortwave trough begins to track across the northwest United States, which is expected to begin breaking down the ridge across western Nebraska. While conditions are expected to be mostly dry, around a 20 to 25 percent afternoon humidity, winds are expected to remain right around 20 knots. Given some uncertainty still exists, will continue to monitor the forecast trends, especially as guidance comes into consensus. At this time, Monday may be yet another day to watch for potential elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

As a larger trough tracks across the western United States on Tuesday, still expect some level of uncertainty for the mid week forecast. First, for temperatures, the timing and amplitude of the trough will have a large impact on whether we favor warmer or cooler temperatures. For reference, the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile in the NBM for forecast highs shows a 25 to 30 degree discrepancy, leading to very low confidence in forecast highs. This system also brings a chance for precipitation across the region. This has been a somewhat consistent signal in ensemble forecasts, but timing remains the major question. Again, much uncertainty remains in this system, so will keep monitoring trends at this time. However, this may be the next best chance for precipitation, so this will be a time period worth paying close attention to.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout most of the effective TAF period across western and north central Nebraska. As stratus tracks across southern South Dakota, will need to keep an eye on potentially MVFR ceilings across portions of northern Nebraska this morning, however confidence is decreasing in seeing anything other than low end VFR at this time. Winds have shifted to northerly behind a cold front, bringing gusty winds as well. By late morning, expecting gusts to increase through the afternoon and into the evening. Winds are likely to remain gusty through late evening, eventually seeing gusts diminish around midnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.