textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect Tuesday as northwest winds quickly ramp up this morning with gusts of around 60 mph, strongest across north central Nebraska.

- Expect quiet but cool weather for Wednesday and Thursday, allowing favorable travel conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday.

- Multiple weak impulses traverse the region Friday through the weekend, bringing multiple windows for light snow to the area and potentially impacting post-holiday travel.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Early morning observations show the well advertised cold front beginning its northwest to southeast trek across the Sandhills. Current placement as of ~08z (2am CST) shows a placement around an IML to VTN line, or immediately east of that line. Ahead of this line, shallow fog largely confined to the valleys or sheltered areas. This will likely be short-lived as the frontal boundary, with its increased low-level mixing due to stronger winds, will effectively sweep out the lingering low-level moisture. Temperatures ranged from lower 40s ahead of the boundary to middle and lower 30s behind.

For today...winds will quickly ramp up as daytime temperatures begin their diurnal trend. Strong CAA off the surface combined with warming below will promote steep low-level lapse rates. This will allow a moderate mixed layer to tap into a belt of stronger flow aloft. As a cut-off low takes shape across eastern South Dakota, height fields will compress aloft and promote increasing kinematics. While the High Wind Warning encompasses all of the local forecast area, believe the window to achieve High Wind criteria (58+ mph gusts) is very brief southwest of a Merriman to Broken Bow line. This will likely be through mid-morning with decreasing flow aloft thereafter. Further northeast and in closer proximity to the parent disturbance, flow off the surface should remain elevated as a h85 trough axis dives southeast through South Dakota. This will help maintain 50+ knot flow roughly 2kft off the ground. BUFKIT soundings show fairly unanimous output that areas to the north and east of the previously mentioned Merriman to Broken Bow line should realize adequate mixing to help draw these stronger winds to the surface. A deeper dive shows largely uniform flow through this mixed layer thus allowing for efficient momentum transfer. Ensemble guidance shows a bullseye for wind probabilities roughly in the Valentine/O'Neill/Broken Bow triangle and it's here where the stronger forecast wind gusts are located. Further supporting this is EPS and HREF guidance where probabilities of exceeding 55+ mph gusts top out around 50-60%. There is a fairly sharp decrease the south and west and it's here, across southwest Nebraska, where confidence wanes considerably in seeing the same magnitude of gusts. Will maintain the inherited High Wind Warning as is but believe potential exists for this area to be cancelled early. The strong cold-air advection will hold daytime temperatures in check with forecast highs only reaching the middle 30s north to middle 40s south.

Mid-afternoon through tonight...As the upper-low spins to the north, wrap around precipitation will settle south along the Nebraska/South Dakota border. While dry air will be hard to overcome, the steep low- level lapse rates extending up into the DGZ should allow for some flurries if not light snow along and north of Highway 20 and east of Highway 83. Though accumulations should remain very light if any were to occur, the steep lapse rates and expected wind gusts could hamper travel with squall-like bursts leading to some reduced visibility. Folks should remain aware of this threat if traveling in the immediate area. Winds should weaken quickly this evening as pressure rises subside and high pressure noses in. Expect a very cold night in the relative sense, with lows falling to the teens to near 20F in the far east. Even though the descriptor chosen is "very cold", these values are only around 5-10F below normal for areas west of Highway 83.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 326 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Wednesday/Thanksgiving...expect favorable conditions to start the holiday travel period. Behind departing trough, northwesterly flow will remain in place across the central and northern Plains. Modest height rises and resulting subsidence will likely quell any potential for precipitation across the area as temperatures steadily fall. The lone exception to this may be the southern Panhandle into southwest Nebraska Wednesday where a pseudo-warm front may setup. Southerly flow into this density gradient may be enough to produce some light QPF but forecast soundings depict largely mid-level saturation with little lift and dry air at the surface. Similarly, deterministic solutions are largely dry and ensembles like the EPS/GEFS only suggest 30-50% potentially of seeing QPF exceeding 0.01". Will go ahead and maintain a dry forecast for this period as a result. Daytime highs will settle in the upper 30s northeast to middle 40s southwest each day Wednesday and Thursday with light and variable winds.

Friday into the weekend...perhaps a more active period which could introduce some travel impacts to the area. At this time, moderate and even heavy snow does not appear likely but light snow accumulations are possible in a few distinct windows: early Friday morning across far north central Nebraska, late Friday into early Saturday across much of the area, then again Sunday beginning in the early morning across much of the area. The latter of these windows appears to be of most significance both in magnitude and timing being the final day of the post-holiday weekend when travel numbers will likely peak. Northwesterly flow will persist into the weekend until ridge breakdown begins upstream as a shortwave trough moves ashore the Pacific Northwest. Height falls begin Friday with the main trough settling into the Central Rockies sometime early Saturday. Temperatures are likely to cool as a result of encroaching high pressure from the north. While light accumulating snow may occur in our far northeast zones Friday, the brunt of impacts from the window should remain east and north of the area. Light snow will continue off and on through the day Saturday as a cold front dives south towards a developing surface low across the OK/TX panhandles. More broad upslope flow ahead of an approaching longwave trough will support more widespread and persistent forcing for ascent. This leads to more expansive PoPs and greater potential for accumulations. Ensembles hint at closer to 0.10-0.15" QPF for Sunday which is likely to fall as all snow. This suggests the potential for 1-2" of snowfall across the area. While this likely falls short of requiring any headlines, the timing coincident with a heavy travel period raises concern about potential impacts. Will advise following shifts to monitor trends closely. Forecast highs fall from the 40s Friday to the upper 20s/lower 30s for Saturday and Sunday. Forecast highs at LBF/VTN for Sunday fall below the 25th percentile in their respective climatology's. While not overly significant for late November/early December, this will be the coldest temperatures of the season thus far and folks should take adequate precautions. This is especially true for those with travel plans.

Monday and beyond...confidence in upper-level pattern evolution to start next week wanes considerably by the start of the work week. Large scale troughing appears likely to reside somewhere in the central Plains to middle Mississippi Valley. Where precisely this sets up will have large implications on the going forecast. Overall thoughts though are for temperatures to moderate at least some and this is emphasized by the NBM median values for MaxT and MinT values steadily climbing from Monday through Wednesday. While a colder day certainly appears possible for Monday, temperatures should rebound above the freezing mark by Tuesday for most if not all and further increases appear probable for Wednesday where NBM 25th Percentile values recover to the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will remain strong through early evening out of the northwest around 30 to 40 kts with gust of 50 kts or more at times. Winds will diminish this evening but will still remain breezy before midnight around 10 to 15 kts with gust up to 25 kts, before switching to the west Wednesday morning around 5 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094.