textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms along a cold front may lead to locally heavy rainfall this evening across central Nebraska.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms will lead to a threat for heavy rainfall Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. The greatest threat for heavy rain is southeast of a Grant to Bartlett line.

- Cooler and drier conditions return for Friday and into the weekend, with highs in the 60s to 70s and lows in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently, scattered showers continue to slowly exit central Nebraska, with light accumulations possible through late afternoon east of HWY 183. Further west, a cold front bisects the area and is positioned from roughly Imperial to Tryon to Spencer. Temperatures range from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

For this evening, expect the aforementioned cold front to move very little and remain positioned across the Sandhills into tonight. High resolution guidance continues to suggest scattered thunderstorm development along this boundary, within a narrow corridor of MLCAPE as high as 750-1000 J/kg. Meager deep layer shear suggests limited updraft organization, though near record PWATs and long, skinny CAPE suggests a threat for locally heavy rainfall. These storms are expected to end after sunset, with drier conditions briefly returning into the early overnight hours.

Attention then turns to the much advertised threat for heavy rain, in association with the remnants of once Hurricane Polo. As of this afternoon, Hurricane Polo is coming onshore of western Sonora, Mexico, where it is expected to quickly transition to post-tropical as it approaches the Mexico/New Mexico border. This low is then expected to move quickly north tonight, reaching southwestern Kansas by tomorrow afternoon. As this low lifts north towards the area, a deformation axis of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move northwards towards the I-80 corridor by tomorrow afternoon. Near record PWATs remain in place across much of the area this afternoon and tomorrow, and this suggests very efficient rainfall in any showers and storms across the area tomorrow.

Confidence continues to wane with respect to rainfall amounts, with the area expected to be on the northern side of the heaviest swath. A very sharp cutoff in amounts is expected across the area with this system, as a consequence of a northern stream trough expected to quickly move across the northern tier tomorrow. This will usher a much drier Canadian airmass southwards into the area, and this drier air will limit the northward extent of any showers and thunderstorms. In fact, this has many similarities to a typical winter system, where drier air to the north leads to a sharp cutoff within an FGEN snowfall band. Still, believe a threat for a swath of 1 to 2" exists for areas south of I-80 through Thursday morning. Confidence in heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding continues to wane, though plan to keep the Flood Watch intact as is. If trends continue to shift the heaviest rainfall further south and east, further adjustments and possible cancellations of the Flood Watch may be warranted, especially on the northern end.

The system begins to quickly depart by Thursday afternoon, with drier conditions then expected as surface high pressure spills southwards into the area. This will bring in much drier air and will allow for much colder lows into early Friday morning. Lows in the lower 40s seem to be a good bet, and some potential for lows to dip into the upper 30s exists. Trends will continue to be monitored, as this could bring the first Fall frost to portions of western Nebraska Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The area then settles into a much more Fall-like pattern for Friday and into the weekend, with mild afternoon highs in the 60s to 70s amid much drier air. This will also allow for overnight lows in the middle to upper 40s, which is much closer to average than we've seen for much of the month of September. As upper ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS into early next week, temperatures will begin to warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. This will also moderate overnight lows, with lows returning to well above average in the middle to upper 50s early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Low stratus and locally MVFR visibilities will persist into this evening across portions of central and north central Nebraska. Brief improvements back to VFR are possible late evening and into tonight, before low stratus again expands across much of southwest into central and north central Nebraska by tomorrow morning. This leads to widespread IFR/locally LIFR CIGs and visibilities generally southeast of an OGA to ONL line through the day tomorrow.

A cold front currently bisects the area, with northerly winds behind and southerly winds ahead. By tonight, winds become east-northeasterly across the entire area, at 5 to 10kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening through Thursday evening for NEZ038-058-059-069>071.