textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will diminish this afternoon across the southern third of the forecast area.

- Temperatures will moderate back into the upper 50s to around 60 Saturday and Sunday with mainly dry conditions expected.

- Another upper level system will enter the southern plains Sunday night into Monday, increasing the threat for precipitation across the area.

- Temperatures will trend downward beginning Tuesday with readings in the 40s. Behind a decent cold front Tuesday night, highs will only reach into the 30s for Wednesday and Thursday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

H5 analysis tonight and an active pattern across the western half of the CONUS. Across the eastern CONUS, high pressure was anchored over the Gulf with low amplitude ridging extending north into the southeastern states. Further west, a strong shortwave was located over northern New Mexico. Weaker disturbances were located east of this feature and extended from central Texas, north into western Kansas. Further west, closed low pressure was located around San Francisco CA. A trough extended south of this feature to the Los Angeles Basin. A broad area of rain was located from far southwestern and far southern Nebraska, south into central and western Kansas. As this activity tracks north, it is encountering drier air in association with high pressure over South Dakota and dissipating before reaching I-80. Further north, there as been some patchy fog development overnight, mainly over the western and northwestern Sandhills where easterly winds and upslope has been maximized. With cloudy skies across all of western and north central Nebraska overnight, 2 AM CT temperatures ranged from 32 degrees at Ainsworth, Gordon and Valentine to 41 degrees at Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

The upper level disturbance currently over southeastern Colorado, will traverse Kansas today with precipitation persisting on the northern periphery of this feature. So far this evening, the NAM12 300K isentropic surface has done well with the ongoing precipitation over Kansas and far southern Nebraska. Favorable isentropic lift along this surface will remain in place this morning generally along and south of a line from Ogallala, east covering the southern half of Custer County. Condensation pressure deficits increase significantly just north of this line, so a sharp cutoff in precipitation will exist this morning. This seems reasonable given high pressure off to the north and drier mid level air in place supported by forecast soundings. With support from the latest WARW, HRRR and NAM12 solns, tightened up pops across the southern third of the forecast area today. Across Lincoln County, pops range from slight chance north of I-80 to likely pops in southern portions of the county. Current observations across the Sandhills into northern Nebraska indicate reduced visibilities with patchy fog. With low level easterly winds expected to persist into the morning hours, the threat for fog will continue and its mention will be included with this forecast package. As for highs today, readings will struggle to get out of the middle 40s in the southern FA where cloud cover will persist. Across northern Nebraska, there is some indications of limited clearing this afternoon, which will allow highs to possibly reach into the lower 50s. Surface high pressure will drift south of the area tonight with light westerly winds developing. Given the degree of low level moisture and ongoing rainfall across the southern quarter of the forecast area, was initially concerned about fog potential tonight. However, this isn't supported by the latest HRRR and NAM12 surface visby forecast, as well as the latest SREF fog probabilities. With this in mind, will leave out a mention of fog for tonight. Low amplitude ridging will build into the southern and central plains Saturday. This will lead to dry conditions and warm highs in the upper 50s to around 60, some 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 310 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

On Sunday, an upper level low will begin to approach the southern Rockies from the swrn CONUS. Downstream of this feature, southerly winds will increase Sunday, leading to additional low level moisture and warm air advection across the area. By Sunday night, precipitation chances will increase as the upper level low lifts from Colorado into western Kansas. With this system totally disconnected from the northern stream, temperatures will remain warm enough to support liquid precipitation even during the overnight hours. The threat for precipitation will shift into central then eastern Nebraska on Monday. Behind the exiting system, a second, northern stream low, will track from Montana into the Dakotas Monday night into Tuesday. This feature will force an initial cold front through the forecast area Monday night, followed by an even stronger cold front on Tuesday. After highs in the middle 50s Monday, highs will be mainly in the upper 30s and lower 40s for Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

There will be a lingering threat for light precipitation this morning, mainly south of a KSNY to KBBW line. At the KLBF terminal, expect broken ceilings this morning ranging from 2000 to 6000 FT AGL. Ceilings this afternoon will range from 3000 to 6000 FT AGL. Skies will remain mainly cloudy tonight with ceilings improving to around 20000 FT AGL. At the KVTN terminal, expect broken ceilings today at around 20000 FT AGL. Skies will then scatter out this evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.