textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this morning through tomorrow morning across western and north central Nebraska. Record breaking temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds are expected today. A cold front will keep winds gusty overnight.

- Elevated convection is possible late tonight ahead of the cold front, bringing a risk for dry lightning and gusty, erratic winds across western Nebraska.

- Temperatures cool off briefly on Friday, giving a brief break from fire weather concerns. However, by Saturday, temperatures warm again, introducing fire weather concerns through at least Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

High pressure aloft over northern Mexico and associated ridging north into the central Rockies, will begin to flatten today. This is in response to a shortwave trough which enters the Pacific NW and transitions east across southwestern Canada tonight. With the ridge/high system breaking down today, very warm air will be forced east of the Rockies onto the Central Plains. Record or near record highs are likely today across the area with afternoon high temperatures approaching 30 degrees above normal. For highs this afternoon utilized a blend of the NBM with the 50th percentile of the NBM ensembles. This boosted highs a degree or two above the operational NBM and brought temps more in line with the statistical guidance. That being said, forecast highs of 87, 89 and 91 for Broken Bow, North Platte, and Imperial would set records today. Valentine falls a couple of degrees short on their record with their forecast high of 83. More details on record potential are below in the climate section. With the record high temperatures, minimum RH this afternoon falls off to 10 to 20 percent across the area. Winds will gradually increase this morning and the latest bufkit soundings indicate gust potential in the 25 to 30 MPH range this afternoon. Realize wind gusts are on the marginal side for RFW criteria this afternoon, however, given the abnormally warm temps, feel there is the possibility winds could eclipse the current forecast. With the inherited RFW today, do not see enough of a decrease in winds to warrant cancellation of fire headlines. For further details, see the fire section below. Later this evening, a cold front will approach from the north entering northern South Dakota. In advance of this feature, weak mid level instability will spread off the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming this evening. As this instability enters the panhandle, the latest HRRR appears to develop isolated convection. This is also supported by very steep lapse rates in the mid levels. If convection were to take off, am concerned about dry lightning potential as the moisture profile from the surface to 10000 FT AGL is very dry. This would mean a dry lightning threat and gusty erratic winds in the vicinity of convective showers and thunderstorms. The inherited forecast had low end pops for tonight across the west and northern portions of the forecast area. These pops were lowered to slight chance as the outlook for measurable pcpn. is downright low. However, I did mention the threat for thunder across the eastern panhandle and western Sandhills this evening. This correlates with the latest SWODY1 which has general thunder highlighted in this area. As mentioned earlier, a cold front will enter South Dakota this evening, approach northern Nebraska around 12z and exit the forecast area Thursday morning. Behind the front, winds will abruptly change direction to the north and increase. Gust potential immediately behind the front is in the 30 to 40 MPH range, then diminishes later in the afternoon. Highs Thursday will range from the middle to upper 50s across northern Nebraska, to around 70 in far southern portions of the forecast area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Expecting mostly dry conditions to persist Thursday night across the region, with temperatures dropping into the mid 20s to lower 30s. The NBM brings post frontal PoPs into portions of southwest Nebraska Thursday night, but believe these PoPs are still too generous. Although forecast soundings suggest moisture aloft, generally above 650 mb, they also suggest a very dry layer, especially between 850- 700mb. If any precipitation were to fall through that dry layer, no doubt that it would evaporate well before hitting the ground, resulting in virga. With this in mind, have limited PoPs to Slight Chance. For what it's worth, even with these PoPs, QPF remains at zero across the region. Even some of the more "aggressive" guidance brings a few hundredths at most. Would anticipate mostly cool, cloudy conditions, but no precipitation Thursday night.

As for Friday, expecting temperatures to remain on the cool side, with highs in the 50s across the region. Calmer winds are also expected, which should provide at least a brief pause in fire weather concerns this week. However, that pause is short lived as upper level ridging redevelops across western Nebraska. This will bring a steady warming trend starting on Saturday lasting into early next week. Highs on Saturday climb into the 60s and 70s, with highs in the 80s Sunday and Monday. As with this week's temperatures, these forecast highs remain on the low end of NBM guidance, especially given the anomalously warm 850mb temperatures. In fact, the set up looks almost the same as the days we broke 90 degrees. Would not be surprised to see these temperatures continue to warm up over the next few forecast cycles, with potential for highs in the 90s by Sunday and Monday.

As these warmer temperatures return this weekend, again expect that afternoon humidity values drop under 20 percent for most of the region. Winds appear gusty enough each day Saturday through Monday to bring at least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns each day. Will need to keep monitoring forecast trends during this period to determine whether additional fire weather headlines will be needed. As mentioned above, the NBM deterministic does appear to be on the "low" side of guidance right now, so may continue to see increasing fire weather concerns as the extended forecast comes into better agreement.

By Tuesday, an upper level trough begins tracking across the western United States, bringing a surface low across the region. This is expected to bring a slight cool off for Tuesday. However, given the low confidence in the track of the surface low, still a lot of uncertainty in this period of the forecast in temperatures and precipitation chances. Longer range guidance, as well as ensembles, have been pointing to increasing precipitation chances by early April, and this does seem generally in line with the timing of this trough. Will continue to keep an eye on this system as guidance comes into consensus on the track of this system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow afternoon across all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain gusty from the west this afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 30kts expected. Isolated showers are possible this evening across portions of the Sandhills, with a threat for gusty, erratic winds.

Winds briefly weaken tonight, before a cold front pushes through the area early tomorrow morning. Strengthening north winds can be expected tomorrow morning, with widespread gusts of 30 to 35kts for all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are likely today across the area as record high temperatures are expected. Minimum RH will reach 10 to 20 percent with wind gust potential in the 20 to 25 MPH range this afternoon. Winds will diminish tonight, however, there is a threat for isolated thunderstorms in the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills mainly during the late evening/early overnight hours. With the lowest 10000 FT AGL of the atmosphere being very dry, there is a threat for dry lightning and gusty erratic winds in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. The threat for dry lightning will wane into the overnight hours, however, as a strong cold front passes through the forecast area overnight into Thursday morning, an abrupt shift in wind direction to the north and gust potential in the 30 to 40 MPH range is expected. The current red flag warning begins later this morning and continues into late morning Thursday.

Additional fire weather concerns are expected Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday across the area. High temperatures will reach into the 70s Saturday and Tuesday with 80s forecast for Sunday and Monday. At this time, the greatest threat for critical fire weather conditions appears to be Sunday and Monday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)

Today 03/25

* North Platte 89/84 (1907) Valentine 83/85 (1993) Broken Bow 87/83 (2004, 1956, 1908) Imperial 91/85 (1907)

* If records are hit Wednesday, it will be the 8th day so far this year a daily record high has been tied or broken at North Platte. This would also be the 15th daily record high set at North Platte since November 1, 2025!

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.