textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible late this evening into the overnight hours across portions of southwest into central Nebraska. A few thunderstorms may be strong, with isolated damaging winds the main concern.

- Scattered thunderstorms possible Tuesday morning, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening hours, with large hail and damaging winds a concern.

- Wednesday into the Labor Day weekend, a warmer, drier pattern settles over region. Temperatures are likely to range from 10 to 15 degrees above normal, with limited precipitation chances expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Tonight...a frontal boundary will be located across far northwest Kansas into south central Nebraska this evening, lifting slowly northward overnight. increasing mid level moisture and MUCAPEs in the lowest 3km will increase to 1000-2000 J/kg north of the front across southwest and central Nebraska. The latest CAMs are in fair agreement developing scattered thunderstorms across this area. Areas south of a line from Oshkosh through Bartlett could see a few strong storms, with isolated damaging winds the main threat overnight. POPs have increased to 30 to 60 percent. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, as the HREF probability of exceeding 0.25 inch is from 30 to 40 percent across Chase, Hayes, and Frontier County.

Tuesday...scattered showers and general thunderstorms are expected during the morning, mainly across north central Nebraska. Surface low pressure will deepen during the afternoon near the frontal boundary located across northwest Kansas into southeast Nebraska. Cloud cover and precipitation will limit highs to the lower 80s north central, while southwest into central Nebraska should mange to reach the upper 80s. Increasing low-level lift north of the frontal boundary should allow for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours from southwest through northeast Nebraska. Moderate instability as high as 3000 J/kg near and north of the front and deep layer shear to 40-50kts will support strong to severe storms possible. SPC is forecasting a broad Marginal Risk area across most of western and north central Nebraska, excluding the eastern panhandle and far southwest. Large hail and damaging winds are possible. The activity should move east of the area after midnight. Lows in upper the 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 246 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Upper level ridging will gradually build into the region Wednesday into the Labor Day weekend. This will bring a warmer, drier pattern to the region. Guidance remains in strong agreement on an upper ridge center building over the region Friday and Saturday. This will bring much above average temperatures by Friday and Saturday into the mid and upper 90s. NBM 90th percentile high temperatures for Saturday through Monday are in the upper 90s to around 100. This is possible, given the strength of the upper ridge nearing 5970 meters by Sunday and Monday, shown by the GFS. The ECMWF shows a weaker upper ridge. As a result, forecast highs are currently in the upper 80s to lower 90s by Sunday and Monday, given an increasing spread in the strength of the upper ridge.

The stronger upper level ridging will also keep precipitation chances fairly limited Wednesday through the Labor Day weekend. Latest NBM guidance does still keep some slight chance PoPs, generally less than 20 percent, Wednesday night, and again during the evening and overnight Friday through Sunday. However, based on ensemble guidance, precipitation would be light. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a less than 20 percent chance of precipitation exceeding one tenth of an inch Wednesday night and again into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Late tonight, scattered thunderstorms should approach southwest Nebraska from the southwest. Though this activity may bring with it some gusty/erratic winds, prevailing conditions are largely expected to remain at least low-end VFR. This is supported by recent HREF output which paints < 10% for either low CIGs or visibility. Activity should progress north and east with impacts then expected to include VTN with a 3-4 hour delay from onset at LBF. Similarly low-end VFR conditions appear likely. Thunderstorms should depart both terminals during the morning hours with dry conditions for the remainder of the period. Afternoon thunderstorm development looks increasingly probable with low-confidence in precise location so trends will need to be monitored for potential impacts at either TAF site.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.