textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Following a largely dry daytime on Wednesday, weakening thunderstorms may approach the eastern Panhandle into southwest Nebraska with a low-end chance for gusty outflow winds in the strongest cores.

- Drier conditions appears likely for Thursday with seasonable temperatures and the threat for more organized thunderstorms largely to the north and west.

- Precipitation chances will continue Friday through Tuesday, mainly during the evening and overnight hours.

- Above normal highs expected Friday through the weekend, peaking on Saturday in the 90s, with some upper 90s southwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

This morning, decaying convection was slowly shifting south and east across far western Nebraska. Satellite presentation indicates weakening thunderstorms with warming cloud tops and only remnant cirrus plumes traversing the area. Weak flow off the surface was keeping activity from sustaining itself longer into the overnight, even as lingering surface boundaries may support a few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms at times. Drier air was spilling into western Nebraska with dew points falling into the 40s. Lows to start Wednesday should favor low to middle 50s in our west with upper 50s further east to near 60F.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...modest high pressure will continue to nose in from the northwest. This will likely maintain generally light and variable winds for early in the day. Surface height rises will begin towards midday as influence from high pressure wanes with a retreat to the north. A surface boundary will stall northwest to southeast across the area, serving as the dividing line between the drier airmass northeast to richer low-level moisture to the southwest though little temperature variation will be noted as highs reach the low to middle 80s. As lee troughing increasing through the day beneath a passing shortwave trough, southeasterly upslope flow will increase with a moisture tongue climbing up towards the Laramie Range. This upslope flow combined with timing of the shortwave perturbation crossing central Wyoming will be sufficient to produce afternoon thunderstorms along the I-25 corridor. Steep mid-level lapse rates exceeding 7.5 C/km will support a narrow ribbon of 1500- 2500 j/kg MLCAPE oriented northwest to southeast immediately south of this surface boundary. Final placement of this boundary will have large implications on where thunderstorms develop/track so close mesoscale monitoring of this feature will be necessary to determine what risk will materialize in the local area. Shear will again be sufficient for storm organization given close proximity a modest mid- level speed max overtop southeasterly flow. This will support 0-6km BWD values of 25 to 35 knots, supporting multicell and even a few supercell structures the latter of which will be favored early in the life of any thunderstorm. This keeps the favored area for severe weather to our west. The Storm Prediction Center's latest outlook for Wednesday paints a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) west of a Chadron to North Platte line with the Slight Risk (level 2) well to the west. Have no issues with this as the main forcing mechanism will be the orographic features of the higher terrain and as forcing wanes further east, storms will likely struggle. Tuesday evening HREF run highlights this well with reasonable QPF probabilities across the southern Panhandle but little signal for activity to arrive into our western zones. Should activity make it into our western zones, believe gusty outflow winds will be the main concern in addition to lightning. Given how far west activity develops in the afternoon, believe we'll likely see another largely evening event with largely dry conditions returning by early Thursday morning.

Thursday/Thursday Night...behind departing the departing shortwave from the evening prior, mid-level heights will increase and allow dry conditions to resume across the area for the bulk of the day. As the ridge axis settles across Wyoming, a more pronounced disturbance will climb up and over the top of high pressure aloft across Idaho/Montana/far northern Wyoming. A weak surface low will take shape across the far northern Plains and late in the day will drive the development of a LLJ of appreciable strength. With increasing low-level divergence and the nose of this feature aimed across the western Dakotas into southern Canada, forcing for ascent will largely be absent from the area. While additional afternoon convection chances will dot the high terrain along the I-25 corridor once again, stronger capping will stymie this development and should squash it before it manages to track much to the east. Because of this, belief is that Thursday should be largely dry for most of the area and have removed PoPs accordingly. While forecast soundings from the NAM suggest largely uncapped boundary layers, static if not slightly rising heights and the lack of now low-level forcing should keep prevent development. Forecast highs should largely match values from Wednesday with low to middle 80s expected and overnight lows falling into the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 122 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

As the upper level ridge center remains over AZ/NM, the upper ridge axis will move eastward into the Northern and Central Plains on Friday. This will bring a noticeable increase in warm air advection, as H85 temperatures reach near 30C across the west. As surface low pressure deepens over swrn SD, a windy south to south southwest wind 20 to 35 mph can be expected. Highs to climb to the low 90s near and west of Highway 83, and mid to upper 80s across the east. Stronger upper-level winds and disturbances are expected to focus across the eastern Dakotas late Friday afternoon and evening. However, some of this convection may develop as far south as the eastern half of north central and northeast Nebraska Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday, the upper-level ridge is forecast to flatten, as an upper trough moves across the southern Canadian Prairies and far Northern Plains. This will bring a quasi-zonal flow aloft and a downsloping southwesterly surface wind and above normal temperatures. Saturday will be the warmest day, reaching the mid 90s west, with even some upper 90s possible southwest. A weak cold frontal passage Saturday night, with low chances for showers/storms. Sunday, highs slightly cooler in the upper 80s, with lower 90s southwest. Low chances again for showers/storms.

A longwave trough moving through the West Coast of the U.S. will bring an increased southwesterly flow aloft. A surface front may remain stalled out across southern Kansas Monday and Tuesday, providing a better chance for showers and storms Monday night, and again Tuesday night. High temperatures moderate back into the mid 80s to near 90. With stronger flow aloft overlapping ample instability, the pattern may become supportive of severe weather chances. Widespread meaningful rainfall is not expected through the extended period. NBM 48 hour probabilities for at least 0.25" ending Sunday morning is only 15 percent across the far northeast and increases to 15 to 25 percent area wide for the 48 hour period ending Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.

Skies will range from SCT150 to FEW-SCT250. Winds will remain light below 10KT at the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Any thunderstorms Wednesday evening are expected to remain southwest of the KLBF terminal.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.