textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in critical fire conditions through early this evening and again on Monday and Monday night.

- High confidence in above normal, potentially record-breaking, high temperatures Monday.

- Low confidence in precipitation potential Monday night, but increasing confidence in a better potential by mid to late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Dry and above normal temperatures will be the main story through the short term. Zonal flow over the region will keep conditions dry through Monday and warm air advection out of the southwest pushes a warm airmass into the central Plains. Current 850mb temperatures in the 20 to 24 C range will allow for surface temperatures to easily rise into the 80s across much of north central Nebraska. Latest EFI remains high (0.8 to 0.95) with marginal SoT (between 0 and 1) increasing confidence that more extreme, potentially record- breaking, maximum temperatures may occur on Monday. Therefore, would not be surprised to see temperatures increase a couple more degrees over the next forecast cycle. Speaking of records, record highs currently sit at 87, 85, 92, and 88 at North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow, and Imperial respectively. If temperatures do increase a few more degrees, most of these sites will have the opportunity to break new records on Monday. For low temperatures, they will remain mild in the mid 40s tonight which is nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Increasing clouds are expected through the afternoon in advance of the next cold front. The majority of the precipitation, if any develops, will occur during the evening hours and into the overnight hours. Some light precipitation is currently expected, although, confidence remains low in development. Overall, thunderstorm potential is low, but some dry lightning may be possible across portions of the Panhandle and into the western Sandhills. QPF will be minimal, with less than 0.01 inches expected for the majority of the region. A return to cooler temperatures will arrive behind the front with lows on Monday night dropping into the 30s with the coldest temperatures across the Pine Ridge.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A series of shortwave troughs will then impact the region from Tuesday through the end of the week bringing some much needed precipitation chances. Isolated rain and snow chances return on Tuesday with a better potential for accumulating precipitation on Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There is some concern regarding precipitation type during the day on Wednesday as temperatures rise into the low to mid 40s. This may limit snow potential during the day as precip changes to rain. However, overnight temperatures remain cold, in the low to mid 20s, which will allow for any liquid precip to change to all snow. Any snow accumulations are expected to occur at night. At this time, the heaviest accumulations will be across the Sandhills and into northern Nebraska where up to 2 inches are possible. Further to the south and west, lesser amounts are expected, with less than 1 inch south of I-80. Between the snow and rain, nearly a quarter inch (0.25) of QPF is expected to fall across much of the region through Wednesday afternoon, bringing some much needed moisture to north central Nebraska.

The rain and snow potential will continue through the first half of next weekend although QPF amounts are uncertain at this time. Warmer temperatures arrive by the end of the week, which should allow for precipitation to turn to a mostly all rain event. There is even a slight potential for thunderstorms by the end of the week, however, confidence remains low in development at this time. Stay tuned for additional details on thunderstorms and the potential for possible severe storms late this week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Winds will become north east to east this evening around 5 kts, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds will then switch to the north Monday morning around 5 to 10 kts. Winds across southwest Nebraska into the southern Sandhills will switch to the east in the afternoon around 5 to 10 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204-210. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ Monday to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ204-206-208-210.