textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a good chance for rain Wednesday night through Thursday night across the area. Even though there is a good chance for rainfall across the whole forecast area, the greatest threat for wetting rain is south of a line Ogallala to O'Neill Thursday night into Friday.

- Warm and dry conditions expected Saturday and Sunday with highs 75 to 85.

- Rain chances return Sunday night through Tuesday as a cold front drops south through the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Today through Thursday...Ridging aloft will transition east today placing the forecast area on the western periphery of high pressure aloft over the Arklatex. A surface trough of low pressure will deepen later today, resulting in southerly winds and breezy conditions by afternoon. However, easterly and southeasterly winds will result in a cloudy start across the forecast area. Looking at low level RH fields in the latest NAM12 soln for this morning, it appears we should see an abundance of cloud cover today across the area. This abundance in cloud cover should limit highs to the upper 60s in the east to middle 70s in the far southwest. The NBM tonight did trend slightly lower on its forecast highs and this seems reasonable given the expected degree of cloud cover today. Later this afternoon, weak mid level forcing will lift north through eastern Colorado, approaching southwestern Nebraska this evening. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase with a broad area of precipitation developing from SW into central and northeastern Nebraska. The latest NBM ensembles have a better than 70% chance of 6hr QPF > 0.01" east of a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth ending at 7 AM Thursday morning. When this threshold is increased to 0.10" the probabilities only fall around 10 percent east of the before mentioned line. On the heels of exiting precipitation early Thursday morning, a second, stronger disturbance will slowly lift northeast from Colorado into Nebraska. This system has the potential to produce widespread 1.00"+ rainfall from SW into central and northeastern Nebraska. The latest deterministic solns including the NAM12, RRFS, Canadian and GFS have a nice swath of 1 to 2" QPF's along and east of a line from roughly Ogallala to Ainsworth. This is also supported with the latest NBM ensembles which has a 70 to 100% chance of 24hr QPF's exceeding 0.50" east of the before mentioned line (ending at 7 AM CT Friday). When the threshold is increased to 1.00", the probabilities are 70+% south of a line from Ogallala to Bartlett. As for the threat for heavy rain, with forecast PWAT's for North Platte near 1.50" Thursday morning, which is well above the max climo of 1.34 inches, there will be plenty of moisture to support heavy rain. Three hour FFG across SW Nebraska is north of 2.25 inches currently. If heavy rain were to materialize tonight, would anticipate these guidance levels to drop, increasing the threat for flash flooding Thursday into Thursday night. For now, will forgo any watch headlines and assess rainfall later today and tonight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 121 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

As indicated above, widespread rain chances will continue through Thursday night, especially south of an Ogallala through O'Neill line. Southwest flow aloft will continue to bring sub-tropical moisture northeastward across southwest into eastern NE. Surface low pressure should deepen from east central CO into northwest KS. A weak frontal boundary may extend east of the surface low to near the NE/KS border. There remains some disagreement between guidance on the location of this boundary. The NAM is farthest north, the GFS farthest south, while the RRFS is middle ground near the NE/KS border. This will affect areas which see the highest rainfall amounts Thursday night into Friday morning.

Precipitation chances from the NBM on Friday remain likely across north central and central NE while ended across southwestern areas. Do feel increasing westerlies from the northern stream should push precipitation chances east through the day, with some breaks of sun in the west by afternoon. Highs to reach the mid 70s far southwest, with low 70s most locations, and the coolest mid 60s in the northeast. Still low chances for showers and a few thunderstorms southeast Friday evening. Upper ridging will progress eastward across the region Saturday and Sunday bringing in noticeably warmer highs from 75 to 85 each day along with dry conditions and mainly sunny skies.

An upper trough over south central Canada and an upper trough extending back across the western U.S may set up a frontal boundary across South Dakota Sunday night, with a cold front pushing southeast through KS into IA on Tuesday. This will bring increasing POPS for showers and storms Sunday night into Monday, with likely POPS Monday night and chance POPS Tuesday. Highs in the 70s Monday will cool to the 60s to near 70 Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

IFR/MVFR ceilings will be the main aviation concern the next 24 hours. At KLBF, MVFR ceilings near OVC010 should improve to VFR, OVC050 by 17Z. A return to MVFR conditions is expected after 07Z, 6SM SHRA BR OVC027. At KVTN, IFR ceilings near OVC009 should improve to MVFR OVC014 by 17Z, then VFR SCT035 OVC070 after 20Z. TSRA is forecast to move into southwest Nebraska tonight, with a refinement to include TSRA at KLBF possible.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.