textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon as strong south winds develop and humidity values fall to as low as 13 to 18 percent. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all areas from mid morning through early this evening.

- Southwest Nebraska and portions of the Panhandle will be monitored closely for potentially more critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon.

- Record highs possible on Monday with highs at least 30 degrees above normal. Critical to near critical weather conditions as highs of 85 to 90 combine with gusty westerly winds and low humidity.

- Cooler with precipitation chances Tuesday night through Friday. Confidence in the location and any amounts of precipitation expected remains very low for now.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Subtle upper level ridging will dominate the weather pattern through Sunday night. Fire weather concerns will continue to be main story, with critical conditions expected today and elevated to near- critical conditions expected Sunday, especially across southwest Nebraska.

A leeward surface trough is in the process of deepening across Wyoming and Colorado early this morning. As a result, the surface pressure gradient is quickly tightening from east to west across Nebraska. Winds have shifted to the southeast as surface high pressure has shifted east and the pressure gradient tightens. South to southeast winds will quickly increase early this morning with poor humidity recovery. This sets the stage for a critical fire weather day today into this evening. As the pressure gradient continues to tighten, very strong south winds will increase by around and just after sunrise. Sustained speeds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph are expected. The pressure gradient relaxes some this afternoon, and winds do decrease some for areas along and west of Highway 61. As humidity values drop into the 13-18% range by afternoon, the Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska through early this evening. Winds decouple some tonight, but southerly wind gusts of 20-25 mph will likely continue through at least the early evening for areas along and east of Highway 83. Humidity recovery tonight will be poor for areas across west central Nebraska (only around 45%) somewhat better recovery across north central Nebraska, where values around 70% are expected.

A very warm day is in store Sunday, with near record highs possible, especially across southwest Nebraska. Southwest Nebraska will also be flirting with near-critical fire weather conditions. Highs will soar into the mid 80s with humidity values dropping to 10-15% during the afternoon. A surface trough will advance eastward, with winds shifting to the northwest across the Panhandle through southwest Nebraska. For now it appears that winds will be just light enough that Red Flag conditions may not be needed. Winds though have been stronger than models/guidance have been indicating. This will be taken into consideration and it's possible a Red Flag Warning may become necessary across portions of southwest Nebraska into the Panhandle Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 152 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Monday will be the warmest day of the week, with highs at least 30 degrees above normal. An upper trough will advance across Idaho into central Montana, while downstream, the upper ridge will break down across the Dakotas and Nebraska. This will bring a strong thermal ridge across Nebraska and southern South Dakota with H85 temperatures as warm as 25C. NBM forecast highs 85 to 90 most locations, with the potential for highs to be even warmer, as the MET and MAV guidance both are forecasting a high of 94! Forecast highs of 88 at North Platte and 86 degrees at Valentine would break the current record by 1 degree, while the forecast high of 88 degrees at Imperial would tie the record. Surface low pressure will deepen from southwestern South Dakota into western Nebraska during the afternoon. Surface winds will be westerly 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph west of Valentine through Ogallala, with westerly winds 10 to 20 mph for all areas to the east. Afternoon humidity will fall as low as 10 to 15 percent for up to a 7 hour period during the entire afternoon/early evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions look increasingly likely to be reached for areas near and west of Highway 83, with near critical across the remainder of the area.

A cold front is shown to move through most of western and north central Nebraska by late evening, with a gusty northerly wind 20 to 30 mph overnight. Could see a post frontal light rain to light snow Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across the western Sandhills and northern Nebraska. Currently POPS have increased to 20 to 40 percent, although NBM probability of greater than 0.01 inch is only 30 to 40 percent across the Sandhills north of I80. Soundings become cold enough that light snow or flurries may occur later Monday night into Tuesday. The cold front Monday night will be strong, with strong cold air advection as H85 temperatures fall to 0C across northern NE by daybreak. Lows will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s despite the windy conditions overnight. Highs Tuesday will be much cooler from the upper 40s to low 50s most areas with northerly winds 20 to 35 mph. Considerable high cloudiness. Afternoon humidity as low as 20 to 30 percent, for elevated fire weather conditions.

Cool and unsettled weather may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday. A large area of surface high pressure will reside across the Northern and Central Plains east across the Great Lakes and Midwest. A shortwave trough will approach and move through the Central Rockies Tuesday night and into the Central Plains Wednesday. The GFS is up to 12 hours faster and most notable with this feature, while the GEM and ECMWF are slower. Therefore, confidence in measureable precipitation is low, based on timing differences. Surface winds will increase from the southeast and south on Wednesday with windy conditions across the west.

A longwave upper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night into Thursday. Still plenty of differences remain between the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF wrt timing and location of the shortwave trough ahead of the main upper trough. Low chances (20 to 40 percent) exist, Wednesday night into Thursday, supported somewhat by the 00Z GEM, and ECMWF. The NBM probability of at least a hundredth of an inch is from 40 to 50 percent east of Highway 83. Confidence in the location and any amounts of precipitation expected remains very low for now. The main upper trough will approach the region Thursday night into Friday and could provide the best opportunity for much needed wetting moisture. Highs Wednesday are forecast to remain cool in the low to mid 50s, with mid 50s to low 60s Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Low-level wind shear will be of concern until 15Z as strong southwest winds to 50kts remain off the surface. Otherwise, strong and gusty south winds at the beginning of the TAF period will persist into this afternoon with gusts to 35kts. Winds will diminish late this afternoon and evening, to below 10kts by 03Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.