textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday, as abnormally warm temperatures and low relative humidity combine with westerly wind gusts in excess of 60 mph across western Nebraska. Across north central Nebraska, wind gusts of 50 to 60 MPH appear possible.

- Elevated fire weather conditions appear possible Friday over far SW Nebraska. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday across southwestern Nebraska as well as portions of the western Sandhills.

- Light rain and snow is possible behind a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. At this time, areas north of Interstate 80 have the best potential to see accumulations.

- Warm temperatures will return to the area beginning Tuesday. By late next week, widespread highs in the 70s appear probable.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

H5 analysis this morning had a broad trough of low pressure, centered across the middle of the CONUS. This trough extended from the eastern Dakotas south into central Texas. Within this trough, decent shortwaves were noted: The first over northern Nebraska, a second over central Texas and other, weaker disturbances which extended from the Arklatex, northeast into the middle Ohio Valley. High pressure was anchored just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. A second high was anchored off the coast of southern California. North of the high, closed low pressure was located over the Gulf of Alaska. The northern Nebraska disturbance, brought light accumulating snows to all but the southern quarter of the forecast area overnight. Snowfall amounts were generally in the 1 to 3 inch range with Burwell and Merna reporting 3 and 3.5 inches respectively. At the North Platte Airport, we received 0.7" of snow overnight. Conditions this afternoon were clear to partly cloudy and 2 PM CT readings ranged from 35 degrees at Gordon to 45 degrees at Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

High winds and critical fire weather conditions are the main forecast challenges over the next 36 hours. Surface high pressure will slide south of the forecast area this evening. As it does, winds will shift to the west overnight and will begin to increase, especially outside of river valleys. Lows tonight will be generally in the mid to upper 20s and will end up being hit early with temps possibly warming overnight tonight. Surface low pressure will deepen as it tracks from southwestern Saskatchewan to eastern North Dakota on Thursday. With this feature to the north of the area and high pressure further south across the southern plains, a tight pressure gradient will reside from South Dakota south into Kansas. This will lead to strong westerly winds Thursday. Bufkit soundings indicate efficient mixing- in some areas above H700, Thursday afternoon. Mixed layer winds reach 60+ MPH for the western Sandhills and northwestern into portions of north central Nebraska Thursday afternoon. For the wind forecast Thursday, utilized a blend of 75th and 90th %ile winds. This kept wind speeds pretty much in line with the inherited forecast. That being said, upgraded the high wind watch to warning and added Thomas county to the warning. Was considering locations east of Cherry county to Boyd and Holt county for expansion of the high wind warning. I am concerned about a 1-3 hour window of high winds in association with an arctic cold front Thursday evening. The bulk of the high winds with this feature are located from South Dakota into Minnesota and northern Iowa. Some of these higher winds approach our far northeastern CWA Thursday evening. After collaboration with FSD and OAX, it was decided to forgo a high wind warning with this forecast package. As for highs on Thursday, went slightly above the NBM numbers given the strong mixing and west down sloping winds. This yielded 70s across the whole forecast area. With the warm readings and strong winds Thursday, critical fire weather conditions are likely Thursday afternoon. More about that in the fire weather section below. Low pressure will track east of North Dakota Thursday night, forcing a decent cold front through the forecast area. This front will then stall just off to the southwest of the forecast area Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The cold front, mentioned above, will lift northeast as a warm front Friday, lifting into southwestern and portions of west central Nebraska. Highs will vary widely across the forecast area with highs ranging from the lower 40s in the far northeast, to near 70 in far SW Nebraska. Saturday will feature a wide range in temps once again with highs ranging from around 50 in the northeast to the lower 70s in SW Nebraska. Winds will also increase, becoming windy in SW and western Nebraska Saturday afternoon. This will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Saturday. More about that below in the fire section. By Saturday night, a strong arctic cold front will track through the forecast area Saturday night. Strong mid level frontogenesis will track across northern Nebraska, behind the cold front, Saturday night into Sunday. This will lead to a good chance for precipitation with the best chances over the northern half of the forecast area. Given the arctic airmass and well below freezing H85 temps behind the front, am expecting precipitation to start out as rain with a quick changeover to snow overnight Saturday night. Exact snowfall amounts remain uncertain ATTM, however, based on some of the ensemble and deterministic model solns, feel there is a fairly low threat of warning type criteria (> 6 inches) of snow currently. The arctic airmass will hang around the forecast area through Monday, before retreating east Tuesday. Highs Monday will range from the freezing mark in the northeast, to the upper 40s in SW Nebraska. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will rebound back into the 50s and 60s Tuesday, followed by 60s and 70s for Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska tonight and tomorrow. Some mid level fair weather cumulus is observed on satellite this evening, which should continue to clear out over the next several hours, before more clear skies occur for most of the region. In northern portions of the state, skies remain cloudy with mid to high cloud cover overnight into the morning. Winds gradually calm this evening after sunset, becoming light and variable for a period overnight. However, a strong low level jet begins to develop overnight, causing LLWS concerns around sunrise. Additionally, strong mixing is expected throughout the morning and afternoon, causing very gusty westerly winds across the region. At area terminals, peak gusts of 40 kts are expected, with gusts in the Panhandle exceeding 55 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 306 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

In the short term, critical fire weather conditions appear likely Thursday. Minimum RH Thursday afternoon will reach 16 to 23 percent across the area. This will be coupled with westerly wind gusts ranging from 40 MPH in the east up to 65 MPH in the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. The main timing of concern for Thursday is from noon to 10 PM CT. A red flag warning has been issued for the entire forecast area.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across far SW Nebraska Friday afternoon. Minimum RH will reach around 20 percent with wind gusts up to 20 MPH possible.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible across southwestern Nebraska and the western Sandhills Saturday afternoon. Minimum RH will reach 18 to 25 percent with wind gusts around 25 MPH in these areas.

Fire weather concerns will fall off Sunday into Monday as the area will be under the influence of an arctic airmass. By Tuesday into Wednesday, fire weather concerns will increase as high temperatures reach back into the 60s and 70s.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ004-005-022>025-035-036-056-057-094. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.