textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures continue today before a cold front tonight brings a return of cooler temperatures for tomorrow and beyond.

- Moderate to high confidence in increased rainfall potential by the middle of next week.

- Moderate confidence in below normal temperatures by the end of the week with a frost/freeze potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Currently, a cold front has pushed into portions of southwest and central Nebraska, and is roughly located from near Imperial to Mason City. South of this boundary, breezy southerly winds are leading to temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. To the north, temperatures range from the upper 40s to 50s amid east-northeasterly winds. Stratus has overspread portions of northern Nebraska, and patchy fog has developed within this stratus deck.

For today, deepening surface low pressure will begin to eject along the Kansas/Nebraska state line through sunrise, with the frontal boundary lifting slightly northward as it does. This will allow for portions of southwest into central Nebraska to warm again into the 80s, with highs in the lower to middle 70s further north. This temperature forecast for northern Nebraska is dependent on the erosion of the low stratus deck, which guidance suggests should occur by early this afternoon as northwesterly winds establish across the Sandhills. By this evening, a reinforcing cold front will quickly push into the area from northwest to southeast, bringing stronger cold advection in its wake. This should promote ample mechanical mixing and increasing surface pressure rises (3-5mb/3hr), and bring a period of gusty northeasterly winds to the area tonight. Portions of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska can expected gusts as high as 25 to 35 miles per hour within ~3 hours of frontal passage overnight.

Much cooler temperatures are then expected for Tuesday, with highs ranging from the upper 50s in northern Nebraska to the upper 60s to near 70 south of I-80. These temperatures are dependent again on cloud cover, with another round of stratus development expected overnight into tomorrow morning. This does lend some uncertainty into afternoon highs tomorrow, with high-res guidance showing 25- 75th percentile 2m temperature spreads as high as 8-12F across much of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills. Trends will continue to be monitored, and further adjustments downwards might be needed should confidence increase in more persistent stratus into tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Active weather returns on Tuesday night and into Wednesday as a developing low pressure system over Colorado will bring the potential of significant rainfall to the area. Little has changed to the previous few forecasts with the better potential for rainfall occurring on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, precipitation will begin to diminish, completely coming to an end by Thursday evening. At this time, QPF amounts are still uncertain, but there is still the potential for some embedded thunderstorms Wednesday evening which may produce some heavier rainfall. At this time, not expecting any severe thunderstorms or flooding concerns, but will continue to monitor over the next few days.

Beyond Thursday night, strong upper level ridging will return to the western US allowing for surface high pressure to build south out of Canada bringing a return to dry conditions through the weekend. With this high, cold air advection will push in a much colder airmass into the northern and central Great Plains. With 850 mb temperatures in the -3 to 3 C range on Friday, surface highs will struggle to rise out of the 50s. Highs will gradually moderate through next weekend, rising back into the 70s by next Sunday. For low temperatures, this CAA will drop overnight temperatures into the upper 20s to low 30s across the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska on Friday morning. Widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s are then expected for Saturday morning. Given this colder airmass, frost and freeze potential is likely by the end of the week. At this time, headlines are not in place, but if this colder temperature trend remains consistent and confidence increases, they may be necessary. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to date information regarding frost/freeze potential.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Stratus remains slow to erode across north central Nebraska this afternoon. However, satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the stratus deck, so may see some brief VFR conditions this afternoon before stratus rebuilds later this evening. Further south, VFR conditions are expected to prevail this afternoon, until the second wave of stratus arrives tonight. A reinforcing push of cold air arrives later this evening, along with the status deck. This will also bring gusty northeasterly winds this evening, with pockets of gusts through the night. Conditions are expected to drop to MVFR across the region. With winds expected to remain sustained through the night, expecting that this will help limit fog development overnight. However, the stratus deck is expected to remain in place through at least the end of the effective TAF period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.