textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening, favoring the Panhandle through southwest Nebraska, with an isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorm possible.

- Following a warmer day on Saturday for areas south of Highway 2, temperatures fall to seasonable levels for Sunday with dry conditions.

- Well above average temperatures are expected next week. Highs in the 80s are expected, with potential to break into the 90s Monday and Thursday.

- The combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions keep at least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns next week. Monday and Wednesday bring the greatest risk for near critical to critical fire weather conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Early this morning, increasing cloudiness was crossing central Wyoming and extending into western Nebraska. This was occurring as a mid-level disturbance was diving south and east from western Montana. Weak fgen will develop as an h7 wave moves off the higher terrain and into southwest Nebraska. Have added Slight Chance (< 25%) PoPs to account for this south of Highway 92 corridor. Rainfall should be fairly limited due to ample low-level dry air. Some steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place and could support a rumble of thunder or two but thought is this will likely be the exception and not the rule.

Saturday/Saturday night...a fairly active day of weather is expected across western and central Nebraska. As the aforemention h5 trough settles into western Nebraska, weak low pressure will develop over the northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, northwest Kansas intersection. Northerly flow will strengthen, drawing a cool front south through the area. By midday, this boundary should be near the I-80 corridor with moderate cold air advection (CAA) to the north but warmer temperatures, aided by compressional warming, to the south. This sets up a reasonable temperature gradient across the area with lower 80s in the south and only upper 60s to the north. Forcing will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms along the I- 25 corridor but mid-level steering flow will support a northwest to southeast track of all activity. With a further south focus for development and the expected track, this has led to a southward shift of forecast PoPs with the highest values, nearing 50%, for areas south of an Oshkosh to Wallace line and a fairly quick decrease further north and east as drier air stymies any potential. SPC introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) southwest of a Sidney to Palisade line. As the area resides on the southern periphery of strong mid-level flow, deep layer shear across the area will be strong. That said, the area will be northeast of the greatest EML and so instability will be the limiting factor. Various guidance suggests MLCAPE of up to 500 j/kg with only slightly more impressive MUCAPE values. This should support isolated strong updrafts capable of 1" hail and or 50-60 mph wind gusts. Any precipitation threat should end by early Sunday morning as the trough axis clears and heights begin to build. Temperatures will fall to the upper 30s to lower 40s Saturday night.

Sunday/Sunday Night...quieter weather arrives for the end of the weekend. Upper-level ridging will develop and become established across the Desert Southwest through the day. This will result in steadily building heights across the Central and Southern Plains. With the increasing influence of high pressure aloft, temperatures off the surface will climb as well with h85 values climbing back into the middle to upper teens. High pressure will keep winds on the lighter side and even with the mild temperatures and dry air, will limit overall fire weather concerns. Temperatures will again settle to around seasonable values Sunday night with lows in the lower 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Monday, an upper level ridge is expected to in place over western Nebraska, with an upper level shortwave tracking across northern North Dakota. Ahead of the upper level shortwave, an intensifying surface low is expected to track across South Dakota, setting up gusty southwesterly winds across western Nebraska. Sustained southwesterly winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected, with gusts up to 35 mph throughout the afternoon. This is also expected to bring a warm front and associated warm air advection across the region. Current guidance suggests anomalous 850 mb temperatures reaching around 25 degC. With these warm temperatures aloft, expecting very warm afternoon temperatures, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the region. While these temperatures exceed the 90th percentile of local climatology, they should still remain below record high temperatures, which are in the mid to upper 90s. With these very warm temperatures, expect lower relative humidity values throughout the afternoon. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF solutions are coming into better agreement on afternoon dewpoints in the mid 40s across eastern portions of the region, and mid 30s across western portions, bringing higher confidence in low humidity across western Nebraska. In general, areas along and west of Highway 83 are expected to see afternoon humidity drop to 15 percent or less, with humidity of 20 to 25 percent east of Highway 83. Given the combination of very warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty southwesterly winds, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday afternoon, with highest confidence for areas along and west of Highway 83.

As the surface low tracks east, a cold front will clip through the region Monday night, keeping gusty winds overnight. A slight cool off is expected Tuesday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However, even these "cooler" temperatures remain above seasonal for this time of year, remaining around the 90th percentile compared to local climatology. Gusty northerly winds are expected across the region, with strongest gusts generally along and east of Highway 83. Expecting afternoon humidity values to be generally at or below 20 percent across most of the region, with "higher end" values around 25 percent. With this set up, expecting at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across most of the region, with highest potential to reach critical values east of Highway 83. A very similar pattern is expected on Wednesday, with continued warm, dry, and windy conditions. However, stronger wind gusts are expected on Wednesday, particularly across western Nebraska, with gusts up to 40 mph possible. Again expecting widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across most of the region, with the highest risk for critical conditions for areas west of Highway 83.

By late week, temperatures are expected to remain well above average, with highs remaining in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Will be continuing to keep an eye on forecast trends, as guidance suggests a plume of Gulf moisture will possibly arrive by late week, which may trend relative humidity values up slightly. As the forecast stands, humidity is expected to drop around 20 percent each day, with gusty winds possible. If this drier solution is realized, then fire weather concerns are expected to remain through the weekend. However, the the more moist solution is realized, humidity may remain above critical thresholds, reducing the concern. If some of the higher dewpoints do work into the region, may see an uptick in precipitation chances, which remain relatively low with the current forecast. With some uncertainty remaining in the forecast for the end of the week, will continue to keep an eye on forecast trends, as the amount of available moisture will largely determine any weather impacts late week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions will be the rule across all of western and north central Nebraska the next 24 hrs. Localized showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening across the Panhandle into southwest Nebraska. Later tonight a few scattered showers may also develop in generally the same area. Surface winds will be northeast 10-20 kts this afternoon, then decrease to around 5 kts and become variable tonight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.