textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical or near-critical fire weather conditions appear likely today and Wednesday across the area.

- Temperatures will cool back to the upper 70s lower 80s Thursday behind an exiting cold front.

- The threat for showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend with warmer temperatures expected. This threat for thunderstorms will carry over into Monday with a possible cooldown.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Strong upper level ridging across the western US will keep high pressure and a mostly dry forecast over the region through Tuesday night. This ridging will allow for warm air advection to push 850mb temperatures in the 18 to 24 C range into Nebraska. This will allow for surface highs to easily rise into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Some locations across southwest Nebraska may even see highs into the low 90s. This WAA will also bring milder lows into the region with temperatures only dropping into the 60s tonight.

High pressure begins to slide off to the east as a frontal boundary pushes in from the north on Wednesday. The majority of the precipitation associated with this front will remain to the north across South Dakota, but northern Nebraska may get grazed by some light showers early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the main threat this front will bring will be some very strong winds. Northwest gusts up to 45 to 50 mph will be possible Wednesday afternoon along and behind the frontal passage. At this time, no high wind headlines have been issued, but if confidence in higher winds increases, they may be necessary. These strong winds will continue through early Wednesday evening before diminishing after sunset.

This front will also usher in some colder temperatures to north central Nebraska. Highs on Wednesday will largely depend on the frontal passage with highs only in the upper 70s north of US-20 and into the upper 80s to low 90s south of I-80. If this front is quicker pushing through, as some models are hinting at in recent runs, these southern highs will be too warm. Overnight lows will return to slightly below normals as the front will have fully pushed through the region by nighttime. Lows will range from the upper 40s in the Pine Ridge to the mid 50s into central Nebraska.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Thursday will start off with light northerly winds as high pressure builds into western Nebraska. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s with no threat for precipitation. Fire weather concerns will be fairly minimal as well given the lighter winds and cooler temperatures. Beginning Friday night, winds will shift around to the south and H5 hts. will increase as persistent low pressure over central Canada, is forced east by low amplitude ridging over the western CONUS. Increasing southerly winds will begin to push low level moisture northward Friday from Kansas in addition to decent low level warm air advection. Highs Friday will range from the middle 80s in the northeast to lower 90s in the southwest. Precipitation chances will begin to increase Friday night, particularly over the eastern half of the forecast area. The latest GFS soln does develop some elevated convection Friday night in central and eastern Nebraska. This is forced by mid level warm air advection and the development of a low level jet Friday night from central into eastern Nebraska. Low level moisture will continue to be advected north on Saturday. At the same time, low amplitude west-southwesterly flow in the mid levels will develop across the southwestern CONUS. This will lead to the development of surface low pressure over northeastern Colorado Saturday afternoon. East of the low, a defined dry line is noted Saturday afternoon and may serve as the initiation point for thunderstorms. ATTM, it is a little too early to ascertain severe storm potential, however the ensembles indicate a good potential for measurable precipitation across the area Saturday afternoon/night with an 80-90% chance for precipitation exceeding 0.01 inches. When this threshold is raised to 0.10' the percentages fall off to 50 to 80% from west to east across the forecast area. The threat for precipitation will linger into Sunday and Monday across the forecast area as a low amplitude pattern continues across the western CONUS. After highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Saturday, highs will cool back to the upper 70s to mid 80s Sunday, and upper 70s to lower 80s for Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect scattered to broken high level clouds over the next 24 hours with ceilings around 25000 FT AGL. Winds will shift around to the west-southwest mid to late morning Tuesday with gusts of 20 to 25 KTS during the afternoon hours. For the KVTN terminal: Expect scattered to broken clouds around 25000 FT AGL through 18z Tuesday. Mid level clouds will increase Tuesday afternoon with scattered to broken ceilings around 12000 FT AGL Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Winds will become west later this morning with gust potential up to 25 KTS this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Fire weather concerns will be greatest today and again on Wednesday. This afternoon, gusty west winds up to 30 MPH and minimum RH around 15 percent, will lead to critical fire weather conditions in zone 204. The fire weather watch was upgraded to a red flag warning from noon through 9 PM MDT today.

A cold front will pass through western and north central Nebraska overnight tonight into early Wednesday morning. An abrupt shift in wind direction to the north will occur with passage of this feature. RH recovery overnight will be meager with 30 to 40 percent in SW Nebraska and 40 to 60 percent elsewhere. By afternoon, there is a high potential for wind gusts approaching reaching 40 MPH across most of western and north central Nebraska. ATTM, based on the latest NBM ensemble data, there is a 80 to near 100 percent chance of wind gusts reaching greater than 40 MPH Wednesday afternoon north of Interstate 80. When this is raised to 45 MPH, there is a 60-90% chance of exceedance north of highway 92. As for RFW critical criteria winds of 25 MPH, the entire forecast area sees a near 100 percent chance of exceedance.

Recent calls to fuel partners across the forecast area are concerning and indicate partially curred fuels. Further input from fire partners indicates if wind potential is strong enough, fire may run, even with the intermittent green-up across the forecast area. Forecast minimum RH Wednesday afternoon reaches 15 to 25 percent across the area. However with the degree of expected winds tomorrow afternoon (possibly as high as 50 MPH in the Sandhills) feel a fire weather watch is warranted for Wednesday across the forecast area. Decided to issue a fire weather watch for Wednesday afternoon through mid evening across all of western and north central Nebraska.

Beyond Wednesday, Thursday will feature cooler temperatures, higher relative humidities and lighter winds which will limit overall fire weather concerns. Winds will shift around to the south Friday, forcing low level moisture into the area. Even with the gusty southerly winds Friday afternoon, widespread minimum RH ranging from 22 to 35 percent should alleviate any critical fire weather concerns. Additional moisture and an increased threat for precipitation, will limit fire weather concerns for Saturday through Monday across the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.