textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight into Friday across the area (70-90%) with wetting rain of a quarter inch or more likely across all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Mainly dry and warmer conditions will settle in across the area Saturday through early next week with highs in the 70s Saturday, followed by 80s for Sunday and Monday.

- Warmer than normal temperatures will continue into next week with increasing precipitation chances beginning mid week.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

H5 analysis this morning had low pressure located over southwestern Saskatchewan. A trough extended south southwest of this feature through the intermountain west into southern California. Within this trough, a strong shortwave disturbance was located over northeastern Idaho. Downstream of this trough, broad west-southwesterly flow extended from the trough across the central plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. East of the Mississippi Valley, more zonal flow extended east to the Mid Atlantic and New England. Ridging was present across British Columbia and high pressure was anchored to the north of the Bahamas. At the surface, high pressure was anchored over the northern Great Lakes. A frontal boundary extended across the western Dakotas into central portions of Wyoming. Clouds in association with a lead disturbance were infiltrating southwestern and western Nebraska this afternoon and scattered rain showers had developed in these areas. At 2 PM CDT, temperatures ranged from 56 degrees at Imperial, to 70 degrees at Ainsworth.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Convection should be ongoing across the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado late this afternoon. This convection will fire along a narrow corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE which extends from eastern Colorado into the western Nebraska Panhandle. Decent 0-6km shear will facilitate strong to severe storms initially off to the west of the forecast area. However, the severe threat should quickly wane as activity tracks east during the evening hours into a stable airmass located in the western Sandhills and SW Nebraska below H850. Storms will progress east into the evening hours, driven by a decent mid level shortwave trough and some limited elevated instability in the H850-H700 layer. The H5 shortwave will track from central Wyoming into far northwestern Nebraska by 12z Friday. Broad lift in advance of the H5 trough and PWATS on the order of 0.75 to 1.00 inches, should lead to widespread precipitation tonight into Friday morning across the forecast area. As for QPF's the latest EC and GEFS ensemble forecasts have the entire forecast area at a near 100% chance for QPF's exceeding 0.10 inches. When this threshold is raised up to a half an inch, all of the forecast area has a 50+% chance of exceedance. The inherited forecast had widespread 80-near 100% pops tonight across the forecast area. Based on the ensemble probabilities, and deterministic solns from the 12z HRRR, NAM, GFS and EC models, feel these pops are very much on track. The shortwave trough will track into central South Dakota by midday Friday. Westerly and northwesterly winds and good subsidence will develop over western, then Central Nebraska Friday morning with the precipitation threat shifting east and northeast of the forecast area by midday Friday. With model trends this morning, precipitation chances were ended earlier than the inherited forecast. By 19z Friday, the threat for precipitation will end across he eastern forecast area. In the wake of the exiting system, clearing skies will lead to warmer temps, especially in the southwest and west where earlier clearing will facilitate warmer temps. Highs Friday will reach into the middle to possibly upper 60s in those areas. High pressure will then build into northern Nebraska Friday Night. This will lead to mainly clear skies and lows in the upper 30s to around 40. Clouds will begin to increase across southwestern Nebraska overnight Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A weak disturbance and mid level warm air advection will work into southwestern portions of the forecast area Saturday with a slight chance for showers and storms. The current forecast has precipitation out of the forecast area Saturday evening, however, this will need further analysis as this morning's GFS lingers precipitation across the area Saturday evening. Low amplitude flow will transition to ridging across the central CONUS Sunday into Tuesday. This will lead to generally dry conditions across the area with readings warming into the 80s. A more active pattern may return to the area beyond Tuesday. A trough of low pressure will amplify across the northwestern portion of the CONUS placing the area in southerly or southwesterly flow aloft. Increasing southerly winds will begin to force gulf moisture into the forecast area mid week as well. This will lead to above normal temps and better chances for precipitation toward the middle and end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Ceilings will continue to lower this afternoon into the evening hours as a trough of low pressure approaches the area. MVFR and periodic IFR ceilings will develop tonight across western and southwestern Nebraska. Periods of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are possible at both terminals this evening with mainly a shower threat continuing into the overnight hours. IFR conditions are more likely at the KLBF terminal and ceilings are forecast to be below 1000 FT AGL from 6z to 15z Friday. Skies will gradually clear late Friday morning at the KLBF terminal with clouds persisting into the afternoon hours Friday at the KVTN terminal.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.