textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry conditions continue through Monday across all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Some elevated fire weather concerns but overall concerns will remain low due to the generally light winds.

- A pattern shift arrives early next week, bringing a return of more seasonal temperatures and better potential for precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

An Upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in firm control right though Saturday. The actual center will be located across WY/CO with elongated H5 heights extending eastward across NE/KS from the center. This will keep flow aloft very weak. Friday looking quite hot, with highs nearing 100F across portions of north central NE. A heat advisory could be needed around the O'Neill area that day as lows Thursday night only cool into the lower 70s with morning lows Friday night about the same. Saturday is a little up in the air temperature wise. A very weak back-door cold front is forecast to drop southwest into the area. This turns the low-level flow to east- northeast and have seen a slight downward trend in highs due to this. A few the higher-res models actually parts of central into north central NE around the 90 degree mark. Will continue to monitor that trend.

Some elevated fire weather concerns in areas that haven't received the rainfall the past few weeks but overall winds remain mostly light and shouldn't be a huge concern.

No precipitation is expected through Saturday with the aforementioned upper-high remaining in place.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Upper level ridging persists Saturday night, with a slight decrease in lows expected. However, these lows still remain in the upper 60s for most of the region, with several locations still likely to remain above 70. These overnight lows remain right around the 90th percentile compared to local climatology, which is quite warm for mid July.

Heat is expected to continue Sunday and possibly into Monday. Confidence remains high that Sunday looks to be the warmest day of this stretch, with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s across most of the region. These highs would be just over the 90th percentile compared to local climatology, but still remain cooler than record highs. For reference, record highs on Sunday range from 107 to 112 across the region, and our warmest highs are currently forecast to be around 101 to 103. Overnight lows also remain quite warm, generally in the lower to mid 70s across the region, providing little relief overnight.

Some uncertainty still remains in the potential timing of a pattern shift early week. Fortunately, model guidance is in consensus on this pattern shift, just some disagreements in timing. Latest guidance now suggests a slightly slower pattern, keeping Monday quite hot. Highs again push into the upper 90s to lower 100s, with some hints of a weak frontal passage across northwest Nebraska. However, this slight uncertainty in the frontal timing not only affects temperatures but also precipitation chances. As timing of the front remains uncertain, slight chance to chance PoPs return to the forecast both Sunday and Monday night. However, this looks to be little precipitation, based on ensemble guidance, which only brings a 20 to 30 percent chance of exceeding one tenth of an inch.

Tuesday into mid week, though a ridge is still expected over the western and into the central United States, should see a switch to northwest flow aloft across western Nebraska. This will help usher in a pattern shift, which is expected to bring a return of more seasonal temperatures and even some better chances of precipitation. Ensemble guidance shows pretty good consensus on at least a 30 to 40 percent chance of rainfall exceeding one tenth of an inch Wednesday into Thursday, with some variations between ensembles. While confidence is fairly high on the pattern shift, confidence remains low on precipitation placement, amounts, and timing.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. Overnight, stronger winds aloft are expected across western Nebraska, bringing LLWS concerns across the western Sandhills. However, this core of stronger winds aloft is expected to remain west of KLBF and KVTN. Surface winds are expected to remain out of the south and southeast throughout the TAF period, and though winds may increase during the afternoon, stronger gusts are not expected. Fair weather cumulus is likely to develop again across the region again, however, little to no impact is expected at area terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.