textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions are expected today and Saturday across southwest Nebraska, leading to areas of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

- A passing low pressure system followed by a strong cold front will lead to the threat for light accumulating snow and 45-55 mph wind gusts.

- Much colder temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday with below normal afternoon highs.

- Much warmer temperatures and increased fire weather concerns arrive next week as strong high pressure develops over the southwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A noticeable temperature gradient is expected across the region today, with much warmer temperatures across southwest Nebraska and cooler temperatures across north central Nebraska. In the wake of a cold front, temperatures across north central Nebraska remain fairly cool today, but generally around seasonal averages in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Across the Sandhills, temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s are expected. However, across southwest Nebraska, a nose of warm, downslope flow is expected this afternoon. This will bring another round of well above average temperatures across southwest Nebraska, with highs in the lower 70s, nearly 20 degrees above average. As with yesterday, the higher temperatures and lack of recent moisture will allow for lower relative humidity across the southwest Nebraska, with afternoon relative humidity values less than 20 percent. As for winds, expecting that portions of southwest Nebraska will be on the eastern most extent of some of the stronger westerly winds, so there may be a few hours of westerly winds of 20 to 25 mph gusting up to 35 mph.

With this combination of warm, dry, and possibly windy conditions, expecting that elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are once again possible across southwest Nebraska and southern portions of the Panhandle. Current thinking is the greatest risk for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will mainly be south and west of a Hayes Center to Ogallala to Oshkosh line, mainly fire weather zones 210 and southern 204. By the evening, expecting winds to become less gusty as a strong low level inversion develops across southwest Nebraska.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies track across the region Friday night, with most of the cloud cover expected across northern Nebraska. While the greater cloud cover would generally be associated with the warmer lows, this will be an interesting set up. Across northern Nebraska, where greater cloud cover is expected, expecting to see cooler lows, with overnight lows in the 20s. This will also support better overnight humidity recovery, bringing overnight humidity around 70 to 80 percent. Across southwest Nebraska, despite clearer skies, warm air advection is expected to continue. This is expected to keep overnight lows just above freezing, in the low to mid 30s. This warmer, drier air will also bring poor overnight humidity recovery, with overnight humidity only climbing to 50 percent.

For Saturday, a stronger push of warm air advection is expected over a greater portion of the region, bringing slightly warmer across most of the region. Still expecting slightly cooler temperatures across north central Nebraska, with highs generally in the low to mid 50s. Across the Sandhills, temperatures reach into the 60s, with highs in the low to mid 70s across southwest Nebraska. This will once again see afternoon humidity values dropping into the 15 to 25 percent range across southwest Nebraska and the Panhandle. However, with slightly stronger downslope flow Saturday, expecting stronger west winds to push further east, covering most areas west of Highway 83. West winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected, with peak gusts up to 35 mph. This combination once again brings elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across the region. Will be closely monitoring forecast trends in the next few forecast cycles to determine whether fire weather headlines may be needed.

Saturday night, a low pressure system tracks across Nebraska, bringing chances for precipitation across the region. However, latest guidance continues with the previous forecast trends, which track precipitation further north. Best precipitation chances appear well to the north, with rain and snow showers across portions of South Dakota. For the North Platte forecast region, the best chances will be mainly along the Highway 20 corridor. At this time, guidance continues to suggest than any precipitation we do get will be on the lighter end. In fact, high resolution guidance suggests this will generally be one tenth of an inch or less. With the cooler temperatures Saturday night, this brings a chance for precipitation to fall as snow. Again, most guidance suggests highest amounts across South Dakota, but could see 1-2 inches along far northern Nebraska. Will continue to keep an eye on this, but if the current forecast trends keep up, we could miss out on any meaningful moisture.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Sunday/Sunday Night...zonal flow early on will give way to a more pronounced shortwave diving southeast along the Northern Rockies and into the Central High Plains by early Sunday. Surface low will cross southwest Nebraska with a strong cold front quickly behind it. Strong cold air advection (CAA) will allow temperatures to crater. NBM shows fairly good agreement on magnitude of cold with < 5F standard deviation values across the area. Forecast highs will range from middle 20s to upper 30s from north to south. With the strong CAA and rapid pressure rises behind the front, am concerned about the potential for strong to severe wind gusts once again. BUFKIT soundings show steep lapse rates in the lowest 1km with h85 flow nearing 50 knots. NBM paints 90% probabilities for exceeding 34 knot (39 mph) gusts with 50-80% of reaching 48 knot (55 mph gusts). Will need to closely monitor this potential going forward. Precipitation potential will largely favor northern Nebraska in closer proximity to any wrap around moisture as the h5 low crosses western Nebraska. Precipitation will fall as snow as the CAA continues to thrust the thermal profile left into greater cold. NBM suggests 50%+ potential for seeing 1" or more snow along and north of a Gordon to Bartlett line, with rapid decreases further south. Precipitation should largely be over by late Sunday night as upper-level disturbance shifts east towards the Mississippi Valley and mid-level heights fill on downstream of strengthening ridge.

Monday and beyond...upper-level ridging across the western CONUS will dominate the extended forecast period. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index is beginning to highlight late next week for anomalous warmth thanks to aforementioned high pressure to the west. Monday will begin the modest warm up though to what magnitude remains somewhat in question. NBM shows reasonable spread/low confidence and focuses mainly across areas that serve the greatest potential of seeing at least light snow accumulations. For now, have values ranging from the middle 20s northeast to middle 40s southwest but some wavering in future forecasts will certainly be possible. Morning wind chills will likely fall below zero but should fall short of warranting any headlines at this time. We see a very quick bump in temperatures by Tuesday, lasting through the following weekend. Outside of some light precipitation potential on Tuesday, the extended forecast is largely dry and with a return to above normal temperatures, expect fire weather concerns to dominate the storyline. Heights aloft will peak by late Tuesday into Wednesday with NAEFS output suggesting near climatological maximums for h2 and h5 heights over southern California. This sphere of influence will extend further east with each passing day Wednesday through Friday. This will coincide with very warm temperatures as NBM median output for daytime highs surpasses the 90s in southwest Nebraska Thursday/Friday and into the weekend. A quick look at record highs across the area show many locations still only in the middle to upper 80s. Should the heat wave pan out as advertises, we could see the potential for a stretch of record heat across much of the region during this timeline.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Aviation concerns today will be about the late morning wind shift with afternoon gusty winds and brief period of LLWS tonight. Weak high pressure will pass to the south and light/variable winds this morning will become more southerly this afternoon with gusts up to 25 knots likely, strongest across north central Nebraska into the Sandhills. A brief period of LLWS will exist for both terminals late tonight before more variable winds set up with speeds around 10 knots through the end of the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 151 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Dry conditions are likely to continue for much of western Nebraska until late Saturday at the earliest and outside of north central Nebraska, little potential for wetting snow/rain equivalent is expected.

Elevated to near-critical conditions are again expected each day Friday and Saturday, favoring far southern Zone 204 into Zone 210. Strong westerly winds will nose into the areas from the Panhandle with afternoon highs climbing into the 70s. At this time, confidence in seeing sufficient overlap of strong wind gusts and critical humidity precludes headlines for Friday. Saturday appears much more impressive and will require close monitoring with later forecasts for the potential need of fire weather headlines.

Beginning as early as Tuesday but more likely on Wednesday, much warmer temperatures are expected to return to much of the Central Plains. Broad upper-level ridge will stall across the Desert Southwest with influence from the high pressure aloft reaching the Central Plains. West-northwest flow along the northern periphery of this feature will support and influx of dry air and increased fire weather concerns for the latter half of next week. Record highs appear possible with some signals for upper 80s to middle 90s, or 30F+ above normal for mid-March. Folks should closely monitor later forecasts for up-to-date information.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.