textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A combination of warm and very dry conditions will lead to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns today.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible along a dryline positioned across western Nebraska on Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong to severe. West of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions are possible.

- Fire weather concerns Thursday and potentially Friday as well.

- Continues to look like this weekend we'll receive some decent precipitation amounts. Wet snow will be possible across mainly northwest Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently, temperatures range from the upper 40s in northwest Nebraska to the upper 60s in central Nebraska under partly to mostly clear skies. Winds are light and variable, with weak surface high pressure positioned across western Nebraska.

For today, expect another very warm and dry day across western and north central Nebraska. Anomalously warm air remains in place aloft, with H85 temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile climo. Despite much weaker winds today, more than adequate deep layer mixing is still expected and highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Very dry air remains in place, and dewpoints will again fall into the single digits to teens for all this afternoon. Despite this, southerly winds 10 to 20 miles per hour look to preclude any fire weather headlines for now.

Attention then turns to a much more active day across the area Wednesday. Aloft, a deep upper low will begin to move east across the Intermountain West, reaching western South Dakota by early Thursday morning. At the surface, deep lee cyclogenesis begins across eastern Wyoming/northeastern Colorado by Wednesday afternoon. As this occurs, southerly flow will quickly strengthen across all of western and north central Nebraska. This will lead to at least modest moisture advection into the area, with dewpoints climbing into the middle to upper 40s by Wednesday morning. By the afternoon, a dryline will be positioned somewhere near the HWY 61 corridor. Near and behind the dryline, critical fire weather conditions look to be a near certainty, with very warm and dry conditions overlapping strong southwest winds. Further east, uncertainty increases with respect to the degree of mixing Wednesday afternoon. Recent high-res guidance has come into better agreement with much deeper mixing ahead of the dryline, and this would increase fire concerns markedly across much of the area. The biggest question mark to this revolves around surface winds gradually backing to the southeast with time as the surface low deepens, and this could limit the mixing somewhat. That said, with the antecedent dry soil conditions and the moisture not being overly deep, confidence is slowly growing in a much deeper mixed warm sector Wednesday. With this in mind, have issued a Fire Weather Watch for much of western and northern Nebraska in collaboration with neighboring offices. Opted to not include central and south central Nebraska for now, though further expansions may be needed should confidence in the moisture being mixed out further east grow.

Should the deeper mixing scenario occur, concern would grow in high based convection off the dryline by late afternoon. Though instability remains somewhat meager in this scenario, any lingering inhibition looks to be eroded by late afternoon. With a very deep dryline circulation in place, at least scattered thunderstorm initiation would be possible. A glance at the high-res guidance that does show the deeper mixing shows a threat for damaging winds in any thunderstorms, with very deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles ahead of the dryline. Some threat for dry lightning would be possible as well, and further supports the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch. A less confident, though still plausible scenario would revolve around lesser deep mixing ahead of the dryline. This would keep dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s through late afternoon, and could support a threat for supercells off the dryline given the magnitude of deep layer shear. Though low confidence, this would be a higher impact scenario that could lead to a threat for both large hail and damaging winds.

By late evening, a strengthening low level jet will help to increase dewpoints well into the lower to middle 50s after sunset. As a strong surface low ejects east across North Dakota after dark, the dryline/cold front will surge east across the area. This may bring a renewed round of convection along the surging front, and this round would have much greater, albeit largely elevated, instability to work with. The threat for strong to severe storms may linger into the early overnight hours, before the front clears off to the east prior to sunrise.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

A deep surface low (986mb per ECMWF) will quickly track through the Dakotas and into southern Canada Thursday. A return to gusty west/northwest winds and low humidity can be expected as a cold front/dry line cross the area. Areas west of Highway 183 will likely see near-critical to critical fire weather conditions develop. Some models are a bit slower with the progression of the front, and keep humidity higher across central Nebraska and eastern portions of north central Nebraska.

Friday will see a cool down, but still appears that fire weather concerns will be at least elevated as gusty northwest winds and low humidity continue.

A change in the weather still looks to occur this weekend. An upper level trough will move eastward across the Rockies. A warm front develops eastward across Kansas from a deepening eastern Colorado surface low. Appears to be plenty of moisture available, with strong Gulf moisture advection. Moist upslope flow brings what looks to be the most promising chance for a decent precipitation event in quite some time. ENS probabilities for at least one half inch of liquid precipitation have increased to greater than 50% for the entire area. In fact, east of Highway 83 they are on the order of 60-70%. GEFS is similar leading to increasing confidence of a potential soaking rain. Still could be some wet snow, especially across the northwest half of the area (Valentine to Ogallala and points northwest). Ensemble probabilities are moderately high for 1-3" of wet snow accumulation. Details will continue to be sorted out as we get closer to the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through today with just a few high level clouds. South to southeast at 5-15 kts will develop by the afternoon hours. Low-level wind shear will be a concern across southwest Nebraska later tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Wednesday, gusty south winds, up to 45 mph, will combine with very warn temperatures (approaching 90 degrees). Although Gulf moisture/humidity will be returning northward into the area, initially it will be shallow and dew points will likely mix out during the late morning through mid afternoon before the deeper moisture arrives by late afternoon and evening. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all but Fire Weather Zone 209 and 219 where humidity may stay a little higher. Also of concern will be the potential for dry lightning, mainly west of Highway 83 with any isolated thunderstorm development late in the afternoon. This threat appears to be brief, with higher humidity increasing during the evening.

A wind shift occurs Wednesday night as a cold front/dry line quickly moves eastward across the area. Winds shift to the west- northwest as this passes. This sets the stage for more low humidity and gusty west-northwest winds Thursday. Likely will see critical conditions over most if not all of the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NEZ204-206-208-210.