textproduct: North Platte
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong northwest winds quickly wane by this evening, with a threat for high wind gusts diminishing.
- A combination of near record high temperatures (60s), dry conditions, and strong west winds will lead to a period of critical fire weather Friday afternoon across western Nebraska.
- Dry conditions and mild temperatures (highs in 50s to 60s) are then expected for much of the upcoming holiday week.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
A cooler day awaits Saturday, with highs briefly returning to the lower to middle 40s. By Sunday, warm advection returns to area and begins to boost highs back to above average. Heights rise aloft as we head into next week, with upper ridging beginning to amplify across the central US. This upper ridge will dominate much of next week, and lead to an extended stretch of dry conditions and mild temperatures through the holiday week. In fact, some records may be challenged as we head towards the Christmas holiday.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
A cooler day awaits Saturday, with highs briefly returning to the lower to middle 40s. By Sunday, warm advection returns to area and begins to boost highs back to above average. Heights rise aloft as we head into next week, with upper ridging beginning to amplify across the central US. This upper ridge will dominate much of next week, and lead to an extended stretch of dry conditions and mild temperatures through the holiday week. In fact, some records may be challenged as we head towards the Christmas holiday.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 558 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the Friday across all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds will be light tonight and shift to the west at 10-20 kts with higher gusts Friday afternoon. Low-level wind shear will be a concern from around sunrise through noontime Friday as westerly winds increase just off the surface.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 324 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025
The combination of abnormally warm late-fall temperatures, dry airmass and strong westerly winds will promote conditions favorable for large fire growth and extreme behavior. A Red Flag Warning was issued for fire weather zone 204. Westerly downsloping sfc winds and steep low-mid level lapse rates will lead to deep mixing. Momentum transfer of at least 35kts appears likely by early afternoon for the western Sandhills and Northwest Nebraska. Probabilistically speaking, using Crescent Lake NWR as a point, the latest ensembles suggest a greater than 50% chance of sfc wind speeds exceeding 40 mph by 10 am Friday and nearly certain percentages by noon. The eastern and southern extent of the wind maximum is somewhat in question, but local research of similar situations suggest a fairly tight gradient between RFW wind speeds and those that typically do not promote large growth. It is for this reason why we limited the RFW to our western fire zone /204/. One other concern against a Red Flag Warning is the potential for high and mid-level clouds, especially east of the RFW. Overcast skies look to arrive late afternoon, but given the recent dry spell and the availability of fuels, any fire start will have high potential to be difficult to control with or without the presence of overcast skies.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for NEZ204.
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