textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread thunderstorms are expected Saturday across western and north central Nebraska. A few storms could be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. A few storms could be strong to severe, with large hail as the primary threat.

- High confidence in continued near-daily thunderstorm chances, although the severe potential is uncertain.

- Moderate confidence in mild temperatures through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The primary concern of the short term will revolve around a threat for severe weather both today and tomorrow across much of western and north central Nebraska.

For today: Confidence remains low with respect to the threat for severe weather locally, largely tied to the evolution of early day convection across the area. By sunrise, the area will sit to the north of a warm front, in a broad and rather strong easterly upslope regime. This is expected to promote scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms this morning and into the afternoon hours, primarily across the Sandhills. The warm front is progged to slowly lift north through the afternoon hours, though confidence wanes on just how far north this boundary reaches. Even the most aggressive solutions largely keep it near and south of I-80, with much of the Sandhills and northern Nebraska under persistent stratus and points to a rather cool late June day. That said, steep lapse rates aloft will promote ample MUCAPE to lead to a persistent threat for repeat thunderstorms through much of the day. Some threat for large hail could develop within this regime as well, with long, straight hodographs expected to be in place. It is also here where a threat for localized flash flooding may develop, especially should the thunderstorm threat linger into the evening and overnight hours. PWAT values remain highly anomalous, and are expected to approach the 99th percentile today amid the persistent moist advection regime. Guidance has begun to come into better agreement in this as well, with a growing number of solutions suggesting a swath of 2-4" (with locally higher amounts) of QPF across portions of central Nebraska through tonight. Considered the idea of a flood watch, though with the antecedent dry conditions, flash flood guidance remains rather high for much of the area.

The main threat for severe weather looks to occur along and south of the surface warm front, though confidence wanes with respect to its position by late afternoon. Guidance continues to point towards two areas of convective initiation tomorrow, with the first being along the Front Range in eastern Colorado. These storms will initially be high based, within a well mixed environment across eastern and northeast Colorado. These storms are expected to grow upscale as they move east into northwest Kansas and far southwest Nebraska late tomorrow afternoon, as they encounter richer boundary layer moisture and increasing instability. Guidance differs with respect to the northern extent of this convection, and casts some doubt on impacts locally. As of now, it appears this line of storms will stay south of HWY 23, and present a threat for damaging winds across far southwest Nebraska.

The second regime of thunderstorm development looks to be with the intersection of the warm front and the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming, where a supercellular mode looks to be favored at least initially. These supercells will move east and southeast through the evening tomorrow, and could impact portions of the eastern Panhandle and southwest Nebraska with time. This regime looks to be the favored corridor for significant severe, highly dependent on the position of the warm front and if storms can favorably interact with the boundary. Should any of these supercells move along the boundary and into portions of the area, all severe hazards would be possible. Large to very large hail would be a prevalent threat, with favorable effective bulk shear and ample instability in place. A tornado or two would also be possible should a discrete mode be sustained into southwest Nebraska, especially as the low level jet strengthens and significantly enlarges hodographs. The progression of the warm front will be monitored closely today, and will directly impact the corridor favored for significant severe weather today.

Upscale growth will occur with time tomorrow evening and into the overnight hours, as the low level jet strengthens yet again across the area. Repeat rounds of thunderstorms across central Nebraska could again increase the threat for localized flash flooding, and will need to be monitored closely. Convection finally begins to exit the area around sunrise Sunday, as the low level jet begins to weaken.

The area then remains in a post-frontal upslope regime Sunday, and this should lead to another round of thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be much lower than that of today, with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms expected along a surface front positioned in western Nebraska. Lapse rates remain plenty steep aloft, and should promote MLCAPE as high as 1500- 2000 J/kg across western Nebraska by late afternoon. Winds aloft remains strong Sunday as well, with effective shear on the order of 45 to 55kts. Hodographs remain long and straight with height, and suggest a threat for large to potentially very large hail with any sustained discrete convection Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Active weather will continue through much of the extended period as series of disturbances impact the region through the middle of next week. Near-daily thunderstorm chances will be possible through Friday as upper level troughs continue to slide across Nebraska. At this time, not expecting severe thunderstorms, but some small hail and briefly stronger winds will be possible with these storms. In addition, continued heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding concerns across north central Nebraska. While QPF amounts for Monday remain fairly light (under a quarter inch), some of the longer range models suggest nearly another 1 to 2 inches (potentially higher) through next week in addition to what was already received through Saturday night. Overall, the heaviest rainfall will be under the strongest storms and therefore it is difficult to locate exact locations. However, rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be possible in some of the stronger storms leading to localized flooding concerns on area roadways, low lying areas, and small streams especially across areas that already saw a couple inches of rainfall Saturday and Saturday night. We will continue to monitor this event and heavy rain potential over the next few days and models get a better handle on the environment. Otherwise, rain and ample cloud cover will keep temperatures fairly mild through Friday with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Low stratus will stick around across much of the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska through the afternoon hours with LIFR conditions possible, including KLBF terminal. Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across the northern Sandhills into north central Nebraska with thunderstorms, coverage is expected to become more widespread this evening with impacts at both KVTN and KLBF terminals possible, with brief periods of lower visibility and gusty, erratic winds. Winds will be out of the east southeast around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 kts through this afternoon. Winds will diminish to around 5 to 10 kts out of the southeast this evening into the overnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday morning for NEZ038.