textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible again today across most of western and north central Nebraska. The main threats will initially be large hail, transitioning into a damaging wind threat later in the evening. However, a tornado cannot be ruled out late afternoon to early evening.

- More showers and thunderstorms are possible late afternoon into the evening for the 4th of July. While the severe risk appears lower, there is still some potential for large hail and strong wind gusts.

- A small break from rain and thunderstorms is expected Sunday into Monday, with a return of precipitation chances Monday night and each evening the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight across the region, especially along and east of Highway 83. Across north central Nebraska, some storm redevelopment is possible, with the main severe concern being strong, gusty winds with the strongest cells. However, more concerning is the potential for heavy rainfall, given the amount of rain that fell over the last several hours. The continued rain could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially in lower lying areas.

Today, upper level high pressure remains over the southeastern United States, with an upper level trough over the western United States. Southerly flow aloft continues to bring higher dewpoints across the region, with afternoon dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s expected. Initially clear skies this morning will allow for daytime heating to builds across the region, bringing highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. With this heating, CAM guidance suggest large amounts of surface based CAPE across the region, on the order of 3,500-4,000+ J/kg. The upper level flow is a little less focused over the region, however, stronger winds aloft will support around 40 knots of deep layer shear. A cold front is expected to develop and track south across the Dakotas, with a dry line tracking into the Panhandle. With the surface convergence in the supportive environment, expecting cells to initially develop as supercells across western Nebraska, tracking to the east. Supercells are expected to bring an initial threat for large hail and potentially damaging wind gusts, though there is a non-zero chance for tornadoes as well. By the evening, expecting cells to begin transitioning to a linear storm mode, increasing the damaging wind threat as the event goes on. Also, as storms become more linear in nature, guidance suggests some potential for line normal shear to develop, keeping a threat for tornadoes along the leading edge of the storms. With this all in play, an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather is in place east of Highway 183, with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) along and north of Interstate 80.

Looking ahead to the 4th of July, question remains on how far south the cold front tracks today and tonight. This will largely drive the severe weather threat during the afternoon and evening for July 4th. A shortwave tracks across the Dakotas, which is expected to track a surface low pressure system into eastern Nebraska, with a cold front across western Nebraska. Ahead of the cold front, modest instability is expected to develop, around 2,500 J/kg of surface based CAPE. With less upper level support, shear is more limited, generally around 30 to 40 knots deep layer shear. However, this may be sufficient for at least organized convection in the afternoon and evening. While the overall severe risk does appear to be lower compared to today, there is still a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms on July 4th. Again, much will depend on how today's severe weather event goes, as well as the placement of the cold front by Saturday. Regardless, worth staying weather aware the next few days, especially for those with outdoor plans.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Sunday...Upper ridging will settle west of the the Continental Divide by midday Sunday. The increasing heights aloft will lead to subsidence across much of the High Plains with increasing temperatures. This should afford western Nebraska a dry day and NBM probabilities support this with < 10% probabilities for a tenth of an inch or more QPF. Drier air will also cross the Rockies and settle into portions of the Panhandle. While critical fire conditions are not expected, some elevated concerns appear possible west of Highway 83.

Monday and beyond...ridging will continue to build into Monday but our brief break from rainfall should come to a swift end as modest southwesterly flow will allow a few perturbations to cross the Northern Rockies and bring a return to rain and thunderstorm potential. Increased lee-troughing should draw richer low-level moisture to the Front Range and lead to afternoon and evening thunderstorm potential to the west. Activity will approach our western zones and bring persistent daily rain and thunderstorm chances. Overall, PoPs are fairly consistent day-to-day, peaking around 50% west of Highway 83 and 30% to the east. Overall, the lack of any more appreciable mid-level speed max overhead precludes greater severe weather signals. Though localized strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out given fairly robust instability, the lack of greater shear should limit the threat for a widespread organized severe weather episode. Temperatures should a subtle upward trend by late week with NBM 90th percentile output suggesting upper 90s to low 100s. NBM inner-quartile spread remains fairly small suggesting reasonable confidence in temperatures. Nevertheless, some upward trends with forecasts highs appear plausible given local proximity to high pressure aloft to the southwest. This aligns with the latest CPC outlooks which highlight above normal temperature leans in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible tonight through mid-morning Saturday. Localized gusty winds will be possible near any storm, otherwise winds will be light, generally 10 kts or less.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.