textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. A few storms could be severe with large hail and a brief tornado or two being the primary concerns, before transitioning to a damaging wind threat.

- Low to moderate confidence in strong to severe storms across southwest and eastern Panhandle.

- High confidence in continued near-daily thunderstorm chances, although the severe potential is uncertain.

- Moderate confidence in mild temperatures through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Early Sunday morning, some models indicate the possibility of there being some visibility concerns across southwest and western Nebraska but confidence remains low on whether it would be widespread. Another weak upper level trough is forecasted to develop over western Nebraska during mid Sunday afternoon. A 40 - 50 kt mid- level jet should promote weak cyclogenesis along the trough. 60 degree dewpoints will combine with steep low/mid-level lapse rates to at least yield strong to severe thunderstorms across western and into north central Nebraska. Storms look to start out discrete, supercellular in nature generally north of I-80 and across to west of HWY-83. The storm mode should potentially progress into clusters where the main threat will be damaging winds later in the evening. 40 - 50 kts bulk shear combined with ample instability should make the environment conducive for storms that are capable of producing large to very large hail. Additionally, tornado or two also remains a possibility during initial supercell development. A similar tune will also return where localized flooding could be a concern with recent heavy rains from the previous days.

On Monday, there is some model guidance that suggests a weak signal for a short-wave trough over the Nebraska Panhandle. There remains a bit of uncertainty on whether any severe storms will progress to far into our CWA beyond the eastern Panhandle where MUCAPE ranges from 1000 - 1500 J/kg. Large hail (1.0+") and damaging wind gusts (60+ mph) will be the primary concern if storm went severe. Further refining of the forecast will be needed to determine timing and placement for anything that could become severe.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A series of disturbances will continue to impact the region through much of next week. These systems will bring near-daily thunderstorm chances through at least Friday as upper level troughs continue to slide across Nebraska. At this time, not expecting severe thunderstorms, but some small hail and briefly stronger winds will be possible with these storms. In addition, continued heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding concerns across north central Nebraska. While QPF amounts remain fairly light, some of the stronger storms could drop another inch or more to portions of our area. This additional rain in combination with what was already received this weekend could lead to prolonged flooding concerns. The majority of the flooding will be across area roadways, low lying areas, and small streams and should quickly recede after rainfall ends. Otherwise, rain and ample cloud cover will keep temperatures fairly mild through Friday with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. Temperatures begin to moderate back to near or slightly above normal (mid 80s) by next weekend as upper level ridging begins to build across the central US and warm air advection pushes in some warmer air.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Cloudy conditions with ceilings below 3000 feet are expected across north central Nebraska through early afternoon. Clouds become more scattered by mid-afternoon for areas south of Highway 2 with thunderstorms developing by late afternoon. Some of these storms may be severe with erratic winds and hail being the main threats. North of Highway 2, overcast skies will persist, but some isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms will still be expected by late afternoon, but the severe thunderstorms are less likely. Lingering showers continue through the overnight across the north with overcast skies and ceilings below 2000 feet through sunrise Monday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for NEZ038.