textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible overnight into early Saturday morning across the region. The main concerns would be isolated large hail and gusty winds.

- Temperatures continue to warm this weekend, bringing warmer than usual temperatures across the region into early next week. By mid week, expecting a shift to cooler temperatures through the end of the week.

- Along with warmer temperatures, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are possible this weekend into early next week, with wind being the main limiting factor.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

An upper level high is observed over the Four Corners region, with upper level ridging across the Pacific Northwest and a subtle upper level trough across the Northern Plains. This set up brings mostly northwest flow aloft across western and north central Nebraska. At the surface, a cold front continues to track south across Nebraska this afternoon, tracking towards a low pressure system across north central Kansas. Behind the front, clear skies are observed, with winds out of the north and northeast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

As the cold front continues to track through the region this afternoon and evening, expect that fairly benign weather will persist. Dewpoints mostly remain in the upper 50s to 60s across the region, with overnight lows dropping into the mid 60s. As the boundary layer decouples this evening, expecting that a pocket of CAPE aloft will remain across the region overnight. Throughout the late night hours, a low level jet begins to develop and intensify slightly across the region, which is expected to provide a forcing mechanism for overnight convection. Given the elevated pocket of CAPE and low level jet forcing, expecting that any convection that develops will also remain elevated. Given the rather nebulous forcing from the low level jet, confidence remains low in where storms are expected to develop. With this in mind, have generally limited PoPs to slight chance through the overnight hours into early Saturday morning, and went slightly more expansive in areal coverage. With decent instability aloft, there is potential that a few of the stronger thunderstorms could pose a risk for isolated large hail, and cannot completely rule out a risk for strong, gusty and erratic winds. For what it's worth, SPC does have portions of north central Nebraska included in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms overnight, with the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk for Saturday morning. However, uncertainty in where and when storms develop remains high, as well as uncertainty in how long storms may persist, given that a strong cap is expected to develop throughout the day Saturday. At the very least, make sure to stay weather aware, especially if you have outdoor or travel plans early Saturday morning, potentially into the early afternoon.

As mentioned above, a strong cap is expected to develop across the region Saturday, as upper level warm air advection tracks into and across the region. This is especially expected across western portions of the region, generally west of Highway 83. As warmer 850 mb temperatures track into the region, creating the aforementioned cap, expect that surface temperatures will steadily climb into the mid to upper 90s. This pushes temperatures generally right around the 90th percentile compared to local climatology, but is expected to remain below record level. For what it's worth, record highs this weekend range from 105 to 108, and expecting that we remain well below those temperatures. In fact, even our expected heat index values generally remain less than 100, though a few spots may briefly see a heat index break into the lower 100s across far southwest Nebraska. This heat is expected to stick around on Sunday, as well, with highs again pushing into the 90s, though chances are slightly better for breaking into the lower 100s across southwest Nebraska Sunday afternoon. However, even with these warmer temperatures, do not anticipate the need for any heat headlines this weekend. Still, caution should be taken for those who are sensitive to heat and those who work outdoors.

With the return of hot conditions, expect to also see at least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns, especially across portions of western Nebraska. Throughout the weekend, expecting that afternoon humidity values drop below 20 percent, potentially as low as 15 percent for areas mainly along and west of Highway 61. This portion of the state remains in severe to extreme drought based off the latest drought monitor, with hot and dry conditions not likely to help. The main limiting factor in fire weather concerns this weekend will be winds. Saturday, may see stronger southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph, but this is generally expected to remain east of the lowest humidity (mainly associated with stronger mixing along the low level jet). Sunday, more easterly winds are expected, with pockets of gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Should also see fairly strong humidity recovery overnight, generally between 75 to 90 percent. At this time, not anticipating Red Flag conditions, but still caution should be taken with any flame or spark producing sources, as any new fire starts may still easily grow and spread this weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Upper level ridging is expected to remain across the region through most of the week, with the main upper level jet remaining just to the north across the Dakotas. Even though ridging is expected to persist, several shortwaves are expected to track through the flow, potentially bringing rain chances throughout the week. Aiding these precipitation chances is the suggestion of a tongue of deeper moisture aloft tracking into the region. With this expecting push of moisture, ensemble guidance is actually fairly optimistic on measureable rainfall across the region, generally bringing at least a 40 percent chance of light rain Monday onward. However, this is generally expected to remain light, as ensembles still show lower chance on amounts exceeding one tenth of an inch, which generally only shows a 20 to 30 percent chance, with chances increasing later in the week. While the precipitation potential certainly seems to be trending up, will still keep an eye on this, as it may be fairly light regardless of chances and the potential push of moisture.

While precipitation remains uncertain, there is a stronger signal regarding temperature trends next week. Expecting that the heat this weekend will last into at least Monday, where again highs may climb into the mid to upper 90s, with a few locations across southwest Nebraska potentially breaking 100. With these hot temperatures persisting, may still see some additional elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across western Nebraska. Keeping this threat somewhat limited is an expected push of better humidity during the afternoon hours, though conditions may still get gusty Monday and Tuesday. However, from there, expect a cooling trend to begin, with cooling beginning in earnest by mid week. In fact, expecting highs to reach the 80s by Wednesday, with potential for highs in the 70s to close out the week. Still a bit of uncertainty in this happening, but the high temperature forecast is trending cooler. For reference, typical highs for mid August are around 87 to 89 degrees. These forecast highs in the 70s would be nearly 15 degrees cooler than average and generally in the 10th percentile for our local climatology, so not completely unfeasible but rather unusual. While the precise temperatures are still uncertain, do feel that confidence in a pattern shift is relatively medium to high.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. The main concerns will be during the overnight hours, as showers and thunderstorms may develop across western and north central Nebraska, bringing gusty, erratic winds and potential for lower ceilings and visibility. However, confidence in placement of showers and thunderstorms remains quite low, so will omit from TAFs for now. Additionally, may see patchy fog develop again in the river valleys around sunrise, unless showers are in the vicinity. This may bring brief visibility concerns to KLBF in the morning hours, but confidence remains low at this time, given questions of overnight precipitation potential.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.