textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Bouts of rain and thunderstorms, including the threat for heavy rainfall, will dominate the forecast through Friday Night with a high likelihood (60-90%) of rainfall exceeding one inch southeast of an Ogallala to Atkinson line.

- A brief return of warmer and drier weather is likely this weekend with daytime highs returning to the 70s to lower 80s, or 5-10F above normal for late September.

- Active weather resumes next week with expansive Likely categorical (55%+) PoPs for much of western and central Nebraska Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Early this afternoon, low stratus across the area was gradually eroding but stopping short of leaving anything but partly cloudy skies. This has effectively stunted the afternoon warmup with highs holding in the lower 60s for north central Nebraska to the middle and upper 70s for our west and southwest areas. Winds have remained gusty with peak speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range out of the south.

For tonight, expect increasing PoPs as a passing shortwave in tandem with an increasing LLJ drives increasing lift. Isentropic lift centered around the 300K surface with moisture advection will lead to isolated convection by late this afternoon, increasing to scattered to widespread activity through the evening. Modest instability and weak shear should preclude a strong to severe thunderstorm threat, however, anomalous precipitable water values with nearly 1.50" observed on the Wednesday midday RAOB suggests a heavy rain potential. CAM output supports this with pockets of 1"/hour rain rates in the heavier cores, particularly in the afternoon/evening as instability remains at its highest. With loss of greater instability into the overnight, the concentration of heavier rain cores decreases. HREF probability-matched mean output shows some of the heaviest QPF between 21z and 03z (3pm to 9pm MDT) but a noticeable decrease thereafter. Still though, overnight rainfall amounts could top out at 0.50" or higher in localized areas. Lows tonight were boosted somewhat. Given afternoon dew points already in the middle to upper 50s and a likely influx of moisture coincident with increased low-level clouds/rain over the next 6 to 12 hours, values were increased to the upper 50s to lower 60s. This aligns with consecutive runs of the HRRR.

Thursday/Thursday Night...a frontal boundary will settle south and arrive in northwestern zones by early in the day. Shortwave ridging will arrive into the central Rockies by midday with subtle height rises as a result. Behind departing high pressure to the east, south to southwesterly flow will persist and feed into the boundary over western Nebraska. This should allow for renewed rain and thunderstorm development during the day and evening. Recent trends have been to push this focus south slightly and invading dry air into our northwestern zones will erode much of the QPF as a result. Forecast PoPs were cleaned up a bit as a result, with slight decreases northwest and increases further south and east. Where precipitation is likely to be most persistent, afternoon highs will struggle to climb out of the 60s with warmer 70s further north and west. Leaned on NAM guidance for QPF, which favors this southward trend and the result is 0.50" or greater southeast of an Imperial to Brewster to Chambers line. Again, with limited instability and poor shear, no severe weather is expected. Lows Thursday night will be cooler with widespread 50s and a few locations threatening the upper 40s.

Friday/Friday Night...deeper troughing will arrive into the Pacific Northwest early in the day. A lead shortwave will effectively lead to height falls through the day but focus for southerly moist advection and warm air advection will focus further east. While PoPs will likely linger through the day for much of the area, it'll be the light QPF variety with weak lift locally and deep saturation within poor lapse rates. This will likely suggest more a soggy/damp day versus one with more expansive rain/thunderstorm potential. Temperatures, as a result of the lingering cloud cover, will remain cool for central and eastern Nebraska but moderate to the 70s yet again for southwest Nebraska through the western Sandhills. This will be followed by lows in the 50s once again with some locations threatening the upper 40s in our west.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Broad ridging will reside along the Texas Gulf Coast with a departing mid-level shortwave tracking east of Nebraska towards the Mississippi Valley. Shortwave ridging with relatively strong height rises will overspread the Central Plains on Saturday. The resultant subsidence will quell precipitation potential and foster a slight warmup across the region. An elongated surface trough will settle into our western zones and once again serve as the dividing line between much humid, much milder temperatures east and drier, warmer air to the west. At this time, believe any increased fire weather threat should remain to the west across the Panhandle but this will need monitored in the coming days. Dry weather will persist through the weekend into Sunday as daytime highs climb into the 70s and 80s.

Deeper troughing will settle into the Great Basin around the start of the work week and this will lead to ridge breakdown locally. Within the southwesterly flow, an influx of moisture from the eastern Pacific from Hurricane Polo should lift northeast through the Desert Southwest and into the Central Plains. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement in painting precipitable water (PWATs) exceeding 150% of normal by Monday and Tuesday. As an upper trough crosses the Northern Plains, rain and thunderstorms will increase ahead of and behind a passing frontal boundary. Ensembles continue to paint high probabilities for heavy rain with 50-80%+ chance to exceed 0.50" of rainfall in the late Monday/Tuesday time frame. Details remain murky at best so continue to check later forecasts for the latest thinking. This increased potential for rain and thunderstorms will coincide with cooler air as NBM inner-quartile values fall into the 60s for much of western Nebraska. This will be followed by a slow climb through the end of the next suggesting a return to more seasonable temperatures appears probable as we start October.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across western Nebraska and will continue moving east across much of the area through the remainder of the evening and overnight, affecting both the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Across north-central Nebraska, including KVTN, impacts from showers and thunderstorms are expected to be relatively brief, so the TEMPO group from the 18Z issuance has been maintained. Farther south, including KLBF, precipitation is expected to persist through at least 15Z Thursday before gradually shifting east into central Nebraska. Embedded thunderstorms should gradually transition to primarily showery activity overnight, so RA has been maintained in both TAFs. As mentioned in the previous discussion, low stratus and fog are expected to develop across the area Thursday morning into the early afternoon, likely resulting in IFR conditions at both terminals. Uncertainty remains regarding the extent and duration of the lowest ceilings and fog, though periods of LIFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next couple of TAF issuances.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.