textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in hot, above normal temperatures continuing through Monday with highs across north central approaching or exceeding 100 degrees.

- High confidence in dry or mostly dry conditions through the weekend.

-Temperatures cool back to near seasonal levels Tuesday behind a backdoor cold front, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

-Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday into Thursday, with the highest chances Wednesday and Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Little changes have been made to the going forecast for the short term. Extreme heat across the region will remain the main concern as upper level ridging and strong surface high pressure remains over the central US. Warm air advection will continue to push a warmer airmass through early week. The warmest air arrives on Sunday and Monday where 850mb temperatures in the 30 to 35 C range will result in surface highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. These very warm temperatures will create heat indicies in the 100 to 105 range, especially on Monday where these heat indicies become widespread throughout the region. The latest probabilities remain mostly unchanged from previous forecasts with the potential of hitting 100 degrees or higher being near 75 to 80 percent probability across northern and portions of north central Nebraska (generally along and north of US-20) on Sunday. On Monday, much of north central and western Nebraska has at least a 70 percent probability of hitting 100 degrees or higher, with some isolated areas across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska seeing over a 90 percent probability. In addition, on Monday the latest EFI is still relatively high (0.7 to 0.8), with a fairly low SoT. Therefore confidence continues to remain high that there may be some very hot, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Monday. Due to increasing confidence in very hot temperatures and heat indicies, have increased highs slightly on Monday with heat advisories remaining in place and unchanged across the region.

There are some concerns, though, with the high temperatures on Monday. While the probabilities seem to suggest higher temperatures, and confidence is indeed high, the latest model trends have been bringing a front, and colder temperatures behind it, through early in the day, which may limit some of the extremely high temperatures, especially across the north. We will need to closely monitor this front as it begins to track through central Nebraska as it may allow heat advisories to be cancelled early if temperatures don't rise as high as expected.

Regarding precipitation, it will be a mostly dry forecast through Monday night. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected late this afternoon and into early evening, although confidence remains relatively low on development and locations of impact. However, enough of the hi-res models still suggest some isolated storms and therefore, have kept a mention of them in the forecast for portions of north central and into the Sandhills. If storms can develop later today, they are expected to be short-lived, dissipating by 7pm CT. There is also some low precip chances on Monday evening with the frontal passage. With limited moisture, any thunderstorms that can develop will be mainly confined to the higher terrain of the Panhandle. At this time, not expecting severe thunderstorms, but a few stronger storms could be possible.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Tuesday, an upper-level trough will move into the northeastern United States, allowing a backdoor cold front to push south through the region as modest mid-level cold air advection develops. This front will provide some relief from the recent heat, with highs returning to near-seasonal levels in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Precipitation chances will remain low Tuesday as the center of the upper-level ridge remains over the region while the stronger upper- level flow stays to the northeast. Tuesday night will remain quite mild, with lows in the upper 60s across north-central Nebraska and the lower to middle 70s farther south.

Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will begin shifting southward, allowing stronger upper-level flow to return across the central Plains. Current model guidance indicates a weak shortwave disturbance moving into the area by late Wednesday evening. This disturbance may provide sufficient lift, combined with increasing mid-level warm air advection and frontogenesis, to support scattered showers and thunderstorms. At this time, model guidance does not indicate widespread wetting rainfall, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. High temperatures will be somewhat cooler, ranging from the mid 80s across north-central Nebraska to the upper 80s and lower 90s across western and southwest Nebraska.

Thursday into next weekend, additional weak disturbances may slide southeast along the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge as it settles across the southern Plains. This could provide additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, though confidence in the timing and coverage of precipitation remains low at this range. By late next week into next weekend, the ridge is expected to expand and strengthen once again, favoring a return to hotter and drier conditions. Highs Thursday are forecast to remain in the mid 80s to lower 90s before warming back into the lower to middle 90s Friday and Saturday as the ridge builds northward across the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. Currently, some leftover stratus is lingering across north-central Nebraska, including the KVTN terminal, though this cloud cover is already beginning to dissipate and should continue to do so over the next couple of hours. Southerly winds of 10 to 20 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots, will continue through this afternoon and evening. A few isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon into the early evening. Coverage is expected to remain very limited, and any storms that do develop should dissipate around sunset without impacting either terminal. Overnight into Sunday morning, winds will weaken to 5 to 10 knots while remaining generally out of the south to southeast. Low-level cloud cover may redevelop Sunday morning across central and north-central Nebraska, though confidence in any MVFR ceilings remains low at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NEZ004. Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Sunday to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ005>010-026>029-094. Heat Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.