textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will continue to increase this weekend, with a more widespread rain event expected Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Moderate to high confidence in cooler conditions along with rainfall through early week.

- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and warmer temperatures by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A deep upper level trough is observed across the western United States tonight, which is slowly tracking east. At the surface, a low pressure system tracks across the Dakotas, pushing an initial cold front across portions of western Nebraska. Along the cold front, ample atmospheric moisture combined with the forcing of the front is producing light rain showers. As this initial front pushes through the region, expect a push of cooler and slightly drier air across portions of northwest Nebraska. In fact, this will be the general set up for temperatures this weekend, with mostly cooler than seasonal temperatures expected across the region, with coolest temperatures remaining across northwest Nebraska.

Throughout the day, expecting to see the upper level trough begin to transition to a cut off low across the Desert Southwest. As this transition happens, will still see a push of southerly winds aloft, which will continue to bring a plume of Pacific moisture across the region. This upper level pattern will continue to support upper level divergence, and combined with the strong plume of Pacific moisture brings increasing precipitation chances across the region this weekend. The initial cold front pushing through overnight is eventually expected to stall out to the east and southeast of the forecast area, and as mentioned above, brings cooler, drier air across the region. The ample Pacific moisture aloft will have to overcome the cooler, drier layer near the surface before precipitation can become more widespread. This should also help keep PoPs slightly more limited through the morning and potentially the early afternoon today. However, given this set up, may still see some showery activity on radar this afternoon which is not quite reaching the surface. As moisture advection continues aloft, should slowly see saturation developing in the lower layers of the environment, allowing for better rain chances to develop by the evening hours. Still, cannot rule out some heavier showers throughout the afternoon and early evening, with higher end amounts around one tenth to one quarter of an inch of rainfall. Given that the environment will need to initially overcome the dry lower layers, do think these higher end amounts may be slightly too aggressive. As mentioned above, would not be surprised to see early showers struggle to reach the surface, offering little to no precipitation early afternoon, with better chances for rain to reach the surface late afternoon into the evening, just given the push of low level dry air.

As the dry lower layer is slowly saturated throughout the day, do expect better rain chances Saturday night across most of the region. Showers are expected to continue in vicinity of a slow moving surface low, and with the upper level support, should provide a scattering of rain showers across portions of the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Again, seeing these as mostly lighter rain showers, potentially bringing one tenth to one quarter of an inch overnight. Seeing as precipitation is expected to continue and skies remain mostly overcast, do think that temperatures should remain just warm enough to keep precipitation mostly liquid. However, in the predawn hours, cannot completely rule out the possibility of maybe seeing a few snow flakes mixing in with the rain showers, especially areas across northwest Nebraska and the western Sandhills. However, with soil temperatures still remaining in the 60s across the region, do not expect that this will amount to anything, even if a few snowflakes are observed.

Showers are expected to persist throughout the day on Sunday, with heaviest rainfall expected overnight. Throughout the day, mostly expecting rain showers to continue, but cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder across southwest portions of the state. As cooler air persists across most of the region, expecting that thunderstorm chances remain relatively low, but still a non-zero chance to hear some thunder Sunday afternoon and evening. Speaking of the cooler temperatures, current guidance calls for highs in the 40s across northwest Nebraska, ranging to around the mid 50s across southwest and central Nebraska.

By Sunday night, the upper level low is expected to lift slightly to the northeast, tracking a surface low just to the southwest. This should firmly keep us north of the warm front, supporting a broad precipitation shield across most of the region. Guidance continues to suggest this period as our best rain chances throughout the weekend, as well as the period when we can expect our higher end rainfall totals. With this set up, high resolution guidance suggests the possibility of a corridor of higher rainfall totals, however disagreement remains in the models of where this sets up, including how far west precipitation can be expected. Some guidance does suggest a more narrow gradient between higher end amounts and low end precipitation amounts Sunday night. However, do think that most areas across western and north central Nebraska will at least see rainfall at some point on Sunday evening and Sunday night. The uncertainty remains in how much. The last few forecast cycles, have seen a downward trend in precipitation totals, along with a slight easterly trend. However, this latest forecast cycle, now able to utilize higher resolution guidance, trended precipitation totals through the weekend back towards higher end amounts. Latest probabilistic guidance suggests strong possibilities, generally greater than 80 percent, that areas along and east of Highway 61 see a total rainfall this weekend exceeding one inch. Ensembles even suggest a possibility that areas east of Highway 83 may see some localized areas exceeding 2 inches total this weekend. There is certainly the upper level and surface support, not to mention the plume of Pacific moisture aloft to support some of these aggressive solutions. However, giving some pause for concern, is that high resolution guidance really only brings this under potential areas of convective showers, and otherwise keeps weekend precipitation totals around half an inch outside convection. All this to really say, while there is a possibility of areas exceeding one inch, and possibly even 2 inches in areas this weekend, think that more realistic widespread totals will favor the lower end. Much seems to depend on where a more convective element can set up, which tends to lower confidence over a more broad area. That being said, do think that most of the region will at least see some rainfall this weekend. Cannot even rule out that portions of northwest Nebraska may even see some snowflakes mixing in to the rain Sunday and Monday morning, however, not expecting any impacts from this possibility at all, given the warm soil temperatures. At the very least, probably a good idea to have your rain gear ready this weekend, with some question remaining on how much each location will receive. |

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Active weather continues into Monday with the potential for widespread rainfall continuing across the area. While the majority of the QPF will have fallen on Sunday and Sunday night, some areas, mainly across extreme north central Nebraska, could see an additional half inch to 1 inch of new rainfall just on Monday alone. The latest probabilities support this as the probability of seeing over a half inch is 90 percent or higher across areas east of US-83, and the probability of seeing over 1 inch is still over 80 percent for these same areas. Therefore, confidence remains high that portions of the forecast area will see up to another inch on Monday before precipitation begins to push out of the area Monday night, completely exiting the area by Tuesday morning. Some additional low end (less than 25 percent) PoPs are then possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a weak trough pushes through the region. At this point, not expecting much in the way of rainfall totals as any shower development will remain isolated in nature. Some embedded thunderstorms may also be possible with this Tuesday activity, but with the best instability and forcing across eastern Nebraska, not anticipating any severe storms. Drier conditions return mid-week as weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the region. Scattered showers return by late week, but confidence remains too low in development, timing, and strength to put much more than a mention in the forecast at this time.

For temperatures, continued rain and clouds as well as cold air advection into the region will keep temperatures cooler than normal on Monday. Highs will only rise into the upper 40s to upper 50s, with some locations across the Pine Ridge remaining in the low 40s. Warmer weather arrives Tuesday lasting through the end of the week as ridging builds back over Nebraska. A return to warm air advection and sunshine will allow temperatures to steadily rise back into the low to mid 60s Tuesday through Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect mainly MVFR ceilings through this evening, ranging from 1000 to 2500 FT AGL. IFR ceilings below 1000 FT AGL will develop overnight and persist through 18z Sunday. Light rain will develop late this evening and will continue into the morning hours on Sunday. Visibilities will range from 4 to 6 miles with the showers. For the KVTN terminal: Expect broken ceilings of 10000 to 20000 FT AGL to continue into the evening hours. Overnight, ceilings will fall becoming MVFR around 12z Sunday morning. Light rain is expected to develop overnight and will continue through Sunday morning. Visibilities down to 5SM and Ceilings down to 1500 FT AGL are expected after 12z Sunday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.