textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and tonight across the region, with the greatest risk across northern Nebraska with a secondary, isolated threat over southwestern Nebraska. The initial threat will be for large hail, transitioning to a strong wind threat.

- A similar severe weather set up returns on Friday, with strong to severe thunderstorms expected late Friday afternoon and evening. The initial threat will be for large hail, with another threat for damaging wind gusts as the night progresses. At this time, the main severe threat is generally north of highway 92 from Arthur to Broken Bow.

- A brief lull in thunderstorms is expected Sunday into Monday with increasing chances for thunderstorms Monday night through Thursday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A highly amplified H5 pattern remained in place across the CONUS today. High pressure was anchored over eastern Kentucky and eastern Tennessee. Ridging extended north into the southern Great Lakes. Further west, low pressure was located over northwestern British Columbia wit a trough extending south-southeast into southern California. Broad southwesterly flow extended east of the trough axis, from the Pacific Coast, east across the Rockies to the high plains of Kansas, Nebraska and the western Dakotas. Within this southwest flow, several weak disturbances were noted. One over northwestern Nebraska had lifted into South Dakota. This shortwave was responsible for thunderstorms and strong winds across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills overnight. A second disturbance had tracked from south central into eastern portions of Nebraska. A third disturbance had lifted from NW Iowa into Minnesota. At the surface...weak low pressure was noted over southwestern South Dakota. A surface trough extended south of this feature, across the Nebraska Panhandle, then south along the Colorado and Kansas borders. East-northeast of the low, a stationary front extended along and just north of I-90 in South Dakota. South of the front and east of the surface trough winds were southerly or southeasterly. Skies were mostly clear and 2 PM CDT temperatures ranged from 86 degrees at Broken Bow, to 88 degrees at North Platte, Thedford, O'Neill and Valentine.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Precipitation chances and severe thunderstorm potential are the main forecast challenges over the next 36 hours. For tonight, two areas of the forecast area will be monitored closely. One area for initiation and a second for storms which may move into the forecast area from the southwest. First off, area one is over northeastern portions of the forecast area. A decent vort max (which led to precipitation early this morning in the panhandle) continues to track northeast into central South Dakota. The latest CAMS initiate convection over central South Dakota INVOF an outflow boundary which originated from decaying convection over southern North Dakota. Expected convection over central South Dakota then kicks out another outflow boundary which drifts into northern Nebraska early evening. As a low level jet intensifies over the eastern half of Nebraska this evening, thunderstorms quickly develop and intensify. Timing of this activity and the presence of decent DCAPE (~2000 J/KG in NE Nebraska) this evening would facilitate strong wind gusts. One caveat with this scenario is how far south the North Dakota outflow boundary can make it before stalling. The latest CAMS stall this feature near I90 which would favor northeastern areas of the forecast area for storms. However, if this boundary makes it farther south, convective initiation may be sooner and farther south. Belief is that clearing in advance of the ND outflow boundary, should lead to enough heating to slow, then stall its progression along the I90 corridor. With this in mind, will hit the northeastern CWA pretty hard on POPS tonight and continue to message the wind potential. A second area of concern for thunderstorms is over portions of SW Nebraska this evening. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate late this afternoon, over eastern Colorado/western Kansas INVOF a surface trough of low pressure and a dryline. This activity will gradually move into SW Nebraska mid to late evening with gusty winds being the main severe threat. Convection will gradually track east of the forecast area by daybreak Friday. Thunderstorm initiation Friday will key on where any residual boundaries set up from tonight's convection. Looking at the latest NAM12 and 4km NAM both solns have a convergent boundary across northwestern Nebraska Friday afternoon. With afternoon heating and a very moist airmass in place, SB CAPES reach 2500 to 5000 J/KG by 21z Friday. By afternoon, a mid level disturbance will approach eastern Wyoming and the Black Hills leading to convective initiation. As activity transitions east late afternoon into the evening hours, abundant low level moisture, deep layer shear of 35 to 45 KTS and DCAPES around 2000 J/KG, will lead to a strong wind threat across the area. ATTM the greatest hazard with the severe storms is strong damaging winds. However any discrete cells early on would be capable of large hail, particularly during the late afternoon hours. Later in the evening, a broad area of convection will ride east on the nose of a 50+kt low level jet. As mentioned earlier, abundant DCAPE exists from central into eastern Nebraska, facilitating a strong wind threat. Overnight, convection will lift east and southeast of the area, forcing a surface boundary into far southern Nebraska.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 322 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A third round of convection is expected to fire INVOF an outflow boundary Saturday. ATTM this boundary is progged to reside over far southern Nebraska into northern Kansas. The latest NBM initialized with higher pops over southern Nebraska with this morning's run and this seems reasonable. By Sunday, mid level flow will weaken as the persistent ridge over the southeastern CONUS weakens and retrogrades west into the SW CONUS. After limited precipitation chances Sunday night into Monday, mid level flow will increase in response to the ridge building in the west. This increase in mid level flow, combined with ample low level moisture, will lead to increased precipitation chances toward the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Clouds will increase across western and north central Nebraska late this afternoon into the evening hours with broken ceilings ranging from 15000 to 20000 FT AGL. Isolated thunderstorms may impact the KLBF terminal from 00z to 06z this evening, however given expected coverage and low forecast confidence, will forgo mention of tsra in the 18z TAF issuance. As for KVTN, the main threat for thunderstorms should be east of the terminal. Skies will remain broken around 20000 FT AGL at the KVTN terminal into Friday morning with clearing expected at the KLBF terminal by daybreak Friday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.