textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A very cold start this morning, with subzero wind chills across all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Warmer temperatures return on Tuesday. Another round of warm, dry, and windy conditions, with little to no precipitation, may bring a return of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

- Temperatures continue to trend warmer in the extended, with highs making a run at the upper 80s to near 90F by Friday/Saturday. This will coincide with continued fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

A cold start is expected across the region this morning, as widespread subzero wind chills are observed across western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures gradually warm up throughout the day, with a temperature gradient across the region again. Highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s are expected across north central Nebraska, with highs in the lower to mid 40s in southwest Nebraska. Northerly to northwesterly winds will bring a bit of a bite this afternoon, as wind chills struggle to get out of the teens across north central Nebraska. Further south, across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, lighter winds will generally prevent noticeable wind chills this afternoon, but highs in the 30s to 40s will still be cool compared to the recent warm wave.

Tonight, a warm front tracks across the northern Plains, tracking into north central Nebraska and the Sandhills. The front will bring a switch to westerly winds in its wake, as well as a slight chance of precipitation tonight into Tuesday afternoon across far northern Nebraska. Generally expecting precipitation chances to remain along and north of Highway 20, but not expecting much, if anything at all, in terms of moisture. In fact, some of the more "optimistic" high resolution guidance brings one hundredth of an inch to some parts of far northern Nebraska. Other guidance brings no moisture whatsoever. With the mostly dry conditions expected, blended in a combination of the HREF and HRRR solutions to account for the very slight chance of precipitation, but again, expect very little out of this system.

After the frontal passage, the well advertised warming temperatures return. By Tuesday, expecting to see anomalous 500 mb heights and very warm 850 mb temperatures creeping across portions of western Nebraska. Expecting that portions of southwestern and western Nebraska push into the mid 70s by Tuesday afternoon, with upper 60s across the Sandhills. With these warm temperatures, expect afternoon relative humidity to drop below 25 percent across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Forecast soundings indicate potential for strong mixing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which may bring yet another round of strong northwesterly winds, with gusts up to 35 mph Tuesday afternoon. Given this combination of warm, dry, windy conditions, and little to no precipitation, expect a return of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions again Tuesday afternoon. Will be continuing to keep a close eye on conditions in the next forecast cycle to determine whether fire weather headlines may be needed or not.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Wednesday through the weekend...much warmer temperatures remain on track for the latter half of the week. Extended ensembles are in good agreement in planting a +2-3 sigma h5 ridge centered over the Desert Southwest by mid-week. This feature will continues to shift east with increasing mid-level heights extending across the central Rockies onto much of the High Plains. Likewise, ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index shows positive anomalies for much of western and central Nebraska by Wednesday, continuing through Saturday with +0.8 or greater each day and non-zero Shift of Tails (SoT). The more impressive signal appears to be Friday, where values reach +0.9-1.0 and SoT climbs to 1 for portions of south central Nebraska. The result is daily highs in the 70s and 80s Wednesday and Thursday, or nearly 25-30F above normal for mid to late March. As it stands now, the warmest days of the forecast fall on Friday and Saturday, coinciding with the signals from the EFI. EPS and GEFS probabilities of surface temperature anomalies exceeding 30F+ climb to 60-80% for areas along and east of Highway 83 and this matches the timing of greatest upper-level height anomalies over western Nebraska. Strong flow crossing the Front Range will promote lee-troughing and persistent westerly downsloping flow. The result will be highly anomalous temperatures, low afternoon humidities, and at least breezy west winds. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight extended fire weather probabilities for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, though these focus over the southern Panhandle and only potentially clip our far western zones at this time. Acknowledging limited confidence in precise magnitudes of winds, expecting increased fire weather concerns for much of the late week. Ridge breakdown looks likely to begin sometime around the start of the weekend. This will force a frontal boundary south through the area and perhaps lead to additional fire weather concerns but confidence in timing remains limited at this time. Cooler temperatures appear certain for the start of next week but precipitation potential remains limited at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the daytime here on Monday for western Nebraska terminals.

Skies will begin clear but steadily fill in as a disturbance approaches from the west. Winds this evening will veer to the south under overcast skies and gusts climbing to around 20 knots. CIGs will continue to drop tonight with low-end VFR and MVFR criteria setting in by early morning Tuesday. Light precipitation may approach VTN from the west but should be delayed to just beyond the end of the valid period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.