textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for all western and north central Nebraska zones on Monday.

- Additional near-critical to critical fire weather conditions appear likely for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures are expected to remain above average through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- A plume of Gulf moisture is expected Wednesday night into Thursday, which builds some uncertainty into the forecast late week into the weekend. Higher moisture brings a better chance for precipitation, while lower moisture may keep continued fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Early this morning, southeasterly flow was apparent across much of the Panhandle further east into the Sandhills. To the south, winds were out of the southwest as a warm front lifts north and east through the area early this morning. Low-level moisture will increase in the wake of this frontal boundary, with upstream observations showing middle 40s dew points within breezy southwest winds. Even with winds remaining steady overnight, the influx of richer moisture should support good humidity recovery for much of the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. This warm front should pass after daybreak for our north central zones and because of this, humidity recovery will be much more limited.

Monday/Monday Night...critical fire weather conditions are expected with details pertaining to this found below in the Fire Weather section. Height rises will continue today with the aforementioned warm front lifting northeast into South Dakota by midday. Dry conditions are expected through the day as subsidence aloft overspreads the region. A compressing pressure gradient will promote strengthening winds through the day with gusts likely reaching the 20-30 mph range with some locations potentially reaching 35 mph. With abnormally warm air off the surface and the expected strong winds, daytime temperatures will be on the warm side. Forecast highs at both LBF and VTN are likely to surpass 90% of observed highs for the May 11th date at each respective site. While records are not expected, values 15-20F above normal resulting in highs around 90F will certainly be noteworthy. In closer proximity to the frontal boundary to the north, increasing mid-level cloudiness is likely this afternoon but should be the only wrinkle to the weather more akin to middle July. A low level jet will strengthen later in the day, allowing stronger southwesterly gusts to persist well into the evening. This occurs as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. The stronger winds ahead of and behind this frontal boundary will maintain a mild overnight with lows likely struggling to fall below the 50s for most locations. Frontal passage is expected to remain dry with only increasing mid-level clouds and ample low-level dry air. Forecast soundings show potential for very strong gusts in the wake of the front. Will highlight 25-35 mph gusts for now but these magnitudes may increase with subsequent forecasts.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...Gusty north winds in the post-frontal environment will continue through the day. A more pronounced trough will dive southeast across the upper Mississippi Valley through the day. With most the strong upper-level dynamics remaining well northeast of the area, a dry forecast remains in place. Surface high pressure will settle south east of the Continental Divide and this should prolong gusty winds through much of the day. Moderate to strong cold air advection (CAA) will allow day over day temperatures to fall considerably, upwards of 10-15F for some locations. The result of much more seasonable temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s, though these values remain slightly above normal for mid-May. With the gusty winds, mild temperatures, and influx of dry air, fire weather concerns will continue with details regarding this below. This dry air along with weakening winds should allow for lows to fall to the lower 40s which is near to slightly below normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Temperatures remain above average on Wednesday, as highs push into the 80s across the region. Dewpoints remain low across the region, with afternoon humidity values expected to reach 20 percent or less across most of the region. Strong, gusty southerly winds are expected across the region, with the strongest gusts generally along and west of Highway 83. Gusts across the western Sandhills could reach up to 45 mph. Given the continued warm temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds, at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the entire forecast region, with the highest chance for near critical to critical fire weather conditions for areas along and west of Highway 83.

As for Thursday and Friday, some uncertainty still remains in the forecast. A low level jet develops across the Plains Wednesday night, which is expected to bring a stream of Gulf moisture across the region. This surge of moisture is expected to bring higher dewpoints, and thus, higher afternoon humidity values. However, there is still some uncertainty in exactly how much moisture tracks into the region. Guidance remains in agreement that temperatures remain well above average, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Both days also bring potential for gusty winds, as well. However, the question remains the surge of moisture. If the higher end humidity tracks into the region, humidity values are expected to remain above critical fire weather thresholds, and chances for precipitation increase. With ensembles picking up on this plume of moisture, ensemble guidance suggests at least the possibility of measureable rainfall both evenings, though amounts are generally expected to be on the lower end, less than one tenth of an inch. On the other hand, if the humidity surge remains more limited, then we may still reach low enough humidity values to reach at least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns. Given how much the moisture surge will impact the forecast, some of the more fine scale features may not be known more exactly until the low level jet sets up. However, will continue to keep a close eye on this period of the forecast to see if confidence increases one way or the other.

Looking ahead to the weekend, a trough is expected to track across the western United States, tracking a couple of low pressure systems across the northern Plains. This will bring at least a chance for rain this weekend, but again, ensemble guidance suggests a fairly light amount of precipitation at this time. Temperatures are expected to remain above average, with highs in the 80s this weekend. As with the plume of moisture Thursday and Friday, there is some uncertainty in how much the moisture sticks around. GFS guidance suggests dewpoints remain on the higher side, while the ECMWF suggests lower dewpoints across the region. This will likely have a large impact on expected precipitation chances and potential amounts. Again, will continue to keep a close eye on the forecast trends, as this moisture will help determine precipitation chances this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska the next 24 hours. Southwesterly winds 15KT with gusts to near 30KT this afternoon and early evening. A cold front tracks into the region after 03Z and overnight, switching winds from southwesterly to northerly. Additionally, a low level jet develops overnight, bringing LLWS concerns to the KLBF terminal 06Z until 10Z. Expect an abrupt shift in winds at the surface and aloft as the cold front passes, with gusty northerly winds at the surface overnight and through Tuesday morning. Expect scattered high clouds this afternoon, with broken high clouds northern Nebraska this evening. Could also see sprinkles across northern Nebraska after midnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Monday...Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for all zones in the LBF forecast area. Gusty southwest winds behind a passing warm front will increase through the morning hours. Though dew points may increase slightly immediately behind this boundary, diurnal mixing will offset this during the day as high temperatures quickly climb into the upper 80s for most and lower 90s for some. These values will be approximately 15-25F above normal for early to middle May. Dry air aloft will mix to the surface and promote expansive critical humidity levels across the area as an elongated surface low takes shape across northeastern Wyoming through western North Dakota. The feature will gradually settle east into the Panhandle, allowing the pressure gradient to constrict ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Southwesterly winds will gust around 25 to 35 mph as deep mixing will allow stronger winds around h7 to mix to the surface. NBM probabilities for greater than 25 mph gusts quickly reach 70%+ over the western Sandhills by 9-10am CDT with widespread 90%+ probabilities for the majority of west central Nebraska by 1-2pm CDT. Similarly, dry air crossing the Continental Divide will settle in to areas west of Highway 83. It's these areas that confidence is highest in seeing critical humidity levels. HREF probabilistic guidance highlights 80% potential or greater for < 15% RH west of a Valentine to Ogallala line. Further east, humidity levels may be more marginal, perhaps only reaching the 15-20% range, but with the anticipated magnitude of wind gusts the decision was made to maintain an area-wide Red Flag Warning. Winds will remain steady if not increase into the early evening as the frontal boundary approaches from the north. Timing of the front is medium at best, with a north to south arrival around Midnight CDT to 6-7am CDT Tuesday. The strong winds ahead of and behind will likely limit humidity recovery to around 50%. Winds behind the front may strengthen further with some potential for seeing strong to significant gusts. At this time, confidence in seeing significant gusts is low so will continue to message 25-35 mph gusts after winds flip to the north.

Tuesday...northerly winds will continue through the day as surface high pressure settles in from the northwest. Ample dry air will accompany this feature and lead to additional near-critical concerns. Later forecast may require Red Flag Warnings for at least portions of the area should the current forecast hold. Temperatures will be much cooler with afternoon highs only reaching the 70s to low 80s which is within 10F of normal for mid-May. With the cooler temperatures though, lower surface moisture is expected as dew points fall to around 30-35F. This will again lead to fairly widespread minimum humidities of 15-25%. Winds should subside heading into the evening though and with the drier air, cooler overnight lows are expected. This will result in marginally better humidity recovery as well with peak values in the 65-80% range.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NEZ209.