textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A threat for strong to severe storms may develop this evening, primarily for areas near and east of Highway 183. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats.

- Strong southerly winds are expected Tuesday afternoon, with gusts as high as 35 to 45 miles per hour across western Nebraska.

- Additional threats for showers and thunderstorms exist nearly each day early and middle next week, though confidence in locations and precipitation amounts remains low for now.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Still monitoring a conditional threat for severe weather this afternoon and evening, ahead of a surface trough pushing east across the Sandhills. Currently, the aforementioned surface trough is positioned near the HWY 83 corridor, with a well mixed airmass to its west (T/Td spreads ~45-55F). Ahead of the boundary, dewpoints have climbed into the 50s, with middle to upper 50s in place east of HWY 183. Satellite trends thus far have shown a lack of cumulus development, though increasing convergence along this boundary as it encroaches on the better moisture may be just enough to initiate isolated thunderstorms closer to the HWY 281 corridor this evening. Should storms develop, long hodographs and nearly perpendicular oriented deep layer shear vectors suggest a threat for a supercellular storm mode. Though confidence in storm formation remains low at this time, any storms that form would likely become severe and pose a risk of large/very large (>2") hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is a little less certain, with LCL heights still rather high (1500-2000m) in the moist sector. In addition to this, low-level shear is somewhat marginal as well, though should improve later this evening as a modest southerly low level jet develops across central and eastern Nebraska. This is all to say, though the threat for tornadoes appear low, they cannot be completely ruled out should a discrete supercell mode be sustained this evening.

Any lingering convection should exit the area and wane after sunset as inhibition increases. Lows tonight only fall into the 50s, as weak warm advection persists. The weak surface trough remains in place across the area through tomorrow afternoon, and looks to provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm development. Though ample instability will be in place tomorrow ahead of the boundary, much weaker flow aloft leads to weaker wind shear versus today. Though a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out with hail and strong winds, the severe threat looks somewhat limited. Heavy rain may become a threat, with slow storm motions expected.

A threat for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns is expected to develop again west of the surface trough, as warm temperatures in the 90s combine with very dry air and push humidity into the middle to upper teens. Winds again look to be the limiting factor with respect to widespread and sustained Red Flag conditions, though trends will need to be monitored closely.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 345 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A complex upper pattern awaits us as we head into middle to late week, as an omega blocking pattern establishes across the CONUS. At this time, it appears the local area will remain positioned to the west of the amplifying upper ridge axis, and to the east of deep upper troughing across the western CONUS. The primary feature of note locally will be a weak upper wave, that is progged to slowly migrate northward out of northern Mexico Tuesday, nearing overhead by Thursday.

Of note, strong surface cyclogenesis across southeastern Wyoming on Tuesday will lead to strengthening southerly winds Tuesday afternoon, potentially as high as 35 to 45mph across western Nebraska. This could again lead to elevated to near critical fire weather concerns, though humidity will be slightly higher (25- 35%) Tuesday.

The main story middle to late week looks to be the threat for precipitation, and even locally heavy rainfall. The background environment looks supportive of this heavy rainfall threat, with PWAT values climbing above the 90th percentile for the entire Wednesday through Saturday period. Add in weak winds aloft, and limited steering flow suggests a threat for slow moving thunderstorms nearly each afternoon. Mesoscale details will need to be resolved to gain more clarity with respect to any amounts and locations, though there is cause for optimism for much needed precipitation to return middle to late week across the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions the next 24 hours across all of western and north central Nebraska. Broken high cloudiness overnight until mid morning across north central NE until mid morning, otherwise scattered high cloudiness across southwest and central NE. winds will become light and variable tonight, then southerly up to 12KT Monday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Will not include in the KLBF and KVTN terminals, with coverage and location uncertain.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.