textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight, mainly across north central Nebraska. Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall are the primary threats.

- Thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are possible both Monday and Tuesday. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall are all possible.

- The unsettled pattern continues Wednesday and Wednesday night, with drier conditions and a warming trend expected Thursday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Tonight...an upper ridge will reside over the Southeastern U.S. and Southern Plains, with a west-northwest flow aloft across the Northern and Central Plains. A disturbance currently located over far southeast MT and northeast WY will track southeast across southwest SD this afternoon, including the Black Hills, with thunderstorms developing. A cluster of storms is forecast by some of the CAMs as well as the deterministic NAM and GFS to moving into north central NE this evening, and possibly into portions of central NE late tonight. Hail will be possible through mid evening, mainly across Sheridan and western Cherry county. Otherwise, the main severe threat would be damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain, with PWAT values still exceeding the 90th percentile climo across the area. Other storms are likely to develop in the higher terrain to our west this afternoon, and should remain to our west this evening.

Monday and Monday night...Upper ridging will increase across the Rockies as a deep upper trough moves into Hudson Bay Canada. This will maintain a west-northwest flow aloft across the region. Highs to reach the mid to upper 80s. A surface trough will extend from southwest MN into southwest NE by 00z. South of the trough, a dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s are expected across southwest into north central NE. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop by late afternoon ahead of the surface boundary. Modestly steep lapse rates and strong heating of the moist boundary layer will result in 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes. This should result in organized supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. The area of greater concern will be eat of Highway 61, where SPC is forecasting a Slight Risk of severe storms. Some upscale growth could occur during the evening as a modest low-level jet develops. If this occurs, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall would become the primary threat.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The active pattern continues Tuesday through Wednesday night, as upper ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS.

Tuesday afternoon, surface low pressure will deepen over CO, as a cold front sags south from north central NE. South of the cold front, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates, with vertically veering wind profiles supporting 40+ kt effective shear. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts. The area of greater concern will be southeast of of a line from Arthur through O'Neill, where SPC is forecasting a Slight Risk of severe storms. With time, sufficient clustering could occur ahead of the front as a low-level jet increases during the evening, and MCS development may occur across central into southeast NE. Likely POPS Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, especially south of Highway 2 and 91.

Wednesday, models have been indicating a fairly strong disturbance dropping southeast through the region during the afternoon and evening. Storms may linger into Wednesday morning from Tuesday night activity as well. Storms developing during the afternoon and evening may be strong to severe, as 0-6km shear ranges from 45-50 kts. With highs only in the mid to upper 70s, instability may be limited to around 1500 J/KG. POPs are fairly high at 50 to 60 percent Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

Upper ridging over the Rockies will gradually build eastward into the plains by this weekend, with drier conditions expected Thursday through Sunday. Highs near to slightly below normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday, then slightly above normal in the 80s, with near 90 southwest Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

VFR is expected at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight across portions of north central Nebraska. Have included VCTS at KVTN from 03Z until 06Z, though confidence in impacts to KVTN remain low for now.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.