textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in storms developing late this afternoon into the evening. Scattered severe will be possible with storms likely ending by late evening.

- Moderate to high confidence in slightly above daily highs in the upper 80s to low 90s next week.

- Moderate confidence in near daily thunderstorm chances, mostly across our western counties with Tuesday and Wednesday being the highest likelihood days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

At outflow boundary from morning convection is evident on satellite imagery from near O'Neill to Broken Bow. Another boundary extends northwest ward from near Broken Bow to Thedford and Mullen. Towering cumulus clouds have occurring near these boundaries across mainly Custer county so far. Hi-Res models are persistent in developing scattered convection across central Nebraska, into the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska mid to late this afternoon. As low-level flow increases somewhat late this afternoon, overall shear will increase. A few supercell structures are likely early on with a cold pool quickly developing as storms become outflow dominate. This transition appears to occur fairly quickly with chances for convection diminishing by late evening. Appears that damaging wind gusts are the main concern, but hail could also occur, especially early on in the convective process.

Ridging aloft builds northward from the southern Rockies into the Plains Sunday into Monday. Overall shear diminishes as this occurs. A weak disturbance does rotate around the northern periphery of the ridge later Monday into Monday night. This could help carry convection eastward off the higher terrain Monday evening. Overall shear is not strong and will likely limit the overall severe threat.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Upper level ridging over southwest CONUS will continue through much of the week, with much of the plains on the eastern side of the high pressure aloft. This will favor warmer temperatures through the extended forecast along with 850 temps being in the mid to upper 20s through the week. Overall, daytime highs will be slightly above normal, in the mid to upper 80s into the low 90s through the week. Guidance suggests near daily thunderstorm chances through the week, where our western counties are more favored. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be at least a little outside the norm and may warrant a deeper look when CAMs are able to assimilate those days. Long range guidance currently suggests a more pronounced shortwave moving through each day as well as a low-level jet in place that could initiate further convection. This would also combine with sufficient moisture (60 - 65 degree dewpoints) that is being advected from the Gulf into Northern Plains to at least provide some signal for the potential for higher rainfall amounts. NBM remains bullish with keeping very little to no wetting rains within our CWA but, both the GFS and ECMWF have at least upwards of 0.25 inch across our western to north central counties. Confidence in any potential severe concerns and exact locations impacted remain low at this time and continual monitoring will be needed.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue to be the rule across all of western and north central Nebraska through this afternoon, tonight and into Sunday morning. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. These could create locally very strong and variable wind gusts. Storms should end by mid to late evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.