textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day, increasing to scattered to widespread in the evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with isolated strong winds and large hail in addition to heavy rainfall the main concerns.

- A frontal boundary will lead to expansive rain and thunderstorm chances late Monday into early Tuesday.

- Precipitation chances diminish for the middle to end of next week with near to above normal temperatures likely.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for thunderstorms on Saturday into Saturday overnight. There is less confidence in the convection developing in the early afternoon, however there will be decent moisture advection combined with CAPE values around 2500 to 3000 J/kg, however, what may limit convection in the early afternoon will be weak forcing, Shear will also be marginal around 20 to 25 kts. If storms are able to form in the early afternoon they will have a chance of strong winds and large hail. Storm initiation in the afternoon will be fairly conditional.

The greater chance for thunderstorms will be late afternoon and evening, as a trof advances in from the west. Storms will first initiate across the Panhandle/western Nebraska. As the LLJ strengthens in the evening, expect development to become more numerous and potentially develop into a cluster of storms. There will be the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail, with damaging winds gusts being the greatest threat. There will also be the potential for heavy rainfall as the storms form into a cluster. PWAT values increase late Saturday night into Sunday ranging from around 1.40 to 1.80 inches across southwest Nebraska. The area of greatest concern for heavy rainfall will be across southwest Nebraska, where the highest PWAT values exist.

Thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours and may linger into Sunday morning. Additional thunderstorms may develop during the day Sunday into Sunday evening as another weak disturbance translates across the area. Temperatures on Sunday will continue the above normal trend with highs in the 90s. There may be some elevated fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon across western Nebraska as Min RH values will be around 30 to 35 percent, but winds will be strong with sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 30 mph or greater.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Monday and Tuesday...upper ridging will settle over the Red River Valley of the south with broad southwesterly flow crossing the spine of the Rockies. Longwave troughing will lift north and east into the northern High Plains through the day Monday with a deepening low pressure aloft forming as the disturbance crosses into southern Canada. A trailing cold front will settle south into the area late Monday and stalling through the day on Tuesday. This will serve as the focus for a couple days of increased rain and thunderstorm potential with model blend PoPs painting definites (> 74%) Monday evening and only slight decreases heading into early Tuesday. These inherited PoPs seem a bit aggressive given fairly lackluster NBM QPF probabilities where exceeding 0.25" is limited to around 20-30%. Do anticipate some ebb and flow with this period of the mid-range forecast as precise location of a frontal boundary at this time scale is far from certain. Similarly, the placement of the frontal boundary and timing of rain/thunderstorm development could play a large role in determining daytime highs on Monday. Overall the NBM shows little spread in Monday and Tuesday MaxT values with inner- quartile spreads of only 4F and 5F respectively for both North Platte and Valentine.

Wednesday and beyond...upper ridging will build west and deep troughing tracks towards the Hudson Bay. The result will be largely zonal flow arriving towards the middle of the next week. At the surface, the aforementioned frontal boundary will settle south with reinforcing high pressure returning to much of the central and northern Plains. Moisture will largely be scoured out and large scale lift bypassing the area. This suggests more limited precipitation chances beyond Day 5. While the core of high pressure aloft will be just south of the area, general westerly flow with positive temperature anomalies nearby will maintain near to slightly above normal temperatures through the end of the forecast period next weekend. The latest Climate Prediction Center outlooks general favors this idea as well with both 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day products showing considerable warm leans.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the bulk of the forecast period.

Main aviation concerns revolve around the threat for thunderstorm impacts perhaps as early as this afternoon but more probable to hold off until late this evening. Confidence in daytime convection, particularly for VTN, has decreased thus have removed any mention. High resolution guidance suggests that most activity will be slow moving and arrive late this evening. Recent trends have carried activity south of VTN but will continue to carry a PROB30 given low confidence. Greater confidence exists in seeing activity arrive into LBF with a late evening timing. This activity may end just prior to the end of the forecast period but will cast a wide net and allow later shifts to trim up timing as necessary. Thunderstorms may contain gusty erratic winds and heavy rain potentially leading to brief MVFR conditions.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.