textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain is possible for areas near Highway 6 through this evening, though little to no accumulations are expected.

- Temperatures warm back into the 50s to low 60s for midweek, along with breezy southeast winds continuing.

- A system approaches the area Friday and into the weekend, bringing the potential for accumulating precipitation and strong northwest winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Currently, upper low pressure is slowly ejecting southeast out of the Rockies, and is expected to move into the southern Plains by tonight. This places the area within a broad moist advection regime, with middle and high clouds streaming in from the south. At the surface, the area remains positioned between broad low pressure along the lee of the Rockies and strong high pressure centered over eastern Iowa and Missouri. This has promoted a constricted surface pressure gradient across the area, and is leading to southeast winds gusting as high as 30 to 40 miles per hour this afternoon.

This broad ascent has allowed for persistent cloudiness across much of western and southwest Nebraska, along with some light rain across portions of western Kansas. Despite the warm advection, temperatures remain steady in the lower to middle 40s, largely due a persistent colder airmass aloft (1-3C at H85). Guidance continues to suggest the aforementioned light rain could lift as far as the HWY 6 corridor into this evening, though any accumulations look to remain little to none. This is supported by recent NBM guidance, with probabilities of even 0.05" as low as 15% or less for areas along HWY 6.

This system will quickly depart by tonight, with dry conditions expected in its wake for tomorrow and into early next week. Increasing subsidence aloft will allow for clearing skies tomorrow afternoon, and this combined with increasing warm advection will allow temperatures to rebound into the 50s. The warming trend is expected to continue into Monday, with highs expected to be around 5 degrees warmer at any given location. This translates to highs in the middle 50s to near 60 degrees Monday afternoon. Aloft, an upper ridge axis begins to push east of the area by Monday evening, brining a return of southwesterly flow into Monday night. In response, expect a return of middle and high level cloudiness as moisture begins to stream in aloft.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 135 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Longwave troughing is expected to push east out of the Intermountain West and across the Rockies Tuesday, finally pushing into the northern Plains by Wednesday afternoon. This keeps the area under the influence of the southwesterly flow aloft in advance of this trough, along within a persistent low level warm advection regime. This keeps temperatures above average both Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs generally in the 50s to low 60s. By Wednesday afternoon as the aforementioned trough begins its trek into the Plains, an associated surface low will eject east out of northeastern Wyoming and across the Dakotas. This will bring a cold front through the area by late afternoon from west to east. Some light precipitation remains possible with the passage of this front, though confidence in this remains low at best. Ensemble guidance paints broad probabilities as high as 30-40% of >0.01" across much of the area, though fall to generally 10% or less for >0.1". Gusty northwest winds can also be expected Wednesday evening behind the front, with gusts up to 30 to 35 miles per hour.

Guidance continues to hint at another system approaching the area by late week and into next weekend, though solutions diverge greatly with respect to both track and strength. Confidence still remains low with respect to both timing and precipitation type, though ensemble guidance continues to hint at least some measurable precipitation. Recent ensemble solutions continue to paint broad probabilities of >0.1" as high as 50-70%, with the greatest probabilities north of I-80. Until synoptic details become more clear, confidence in exactly what form the precipitation fall in will remain very low. That said, strong northwest winds can be expected on the backside of this system, with probabilities of >45mph wind gusts continuing to creep upwards across much of western and north central Nebraska. Any impacts remain uncertain for now, though trends will continue to be monitored closely.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low stratus persists for western and southwest Nebraska terminals, with MVFR and IFR CIGs continuing into tomorrow afternoon. This low stratus will expand eastward overnight, leading to an expansion in lowered CIGs for terminals east of HWY 83. Patchy fog is also possible for western and southwest Nebraska terminals tomorrow morning, leading to periods of MVFR visibilities.

Winds remain gusty from the southeast today and tonight, with gusts of 25 to 35kts continuing for all terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.