textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms are again possible across portions of western and southwest Nebraska this evening and tonight. A few storms could be strong to severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Another threat for a few strong to severe storms is possible Sunday evening for areas along and west of HWY 61.

- The unsettled pattern continues into the middle of next week, with daily threats for showers and thunderstorms continuing across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

An upper ridge will reside over the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight, with quasi-zonal flow aloft across the Central Rockies into the Central Plains. Late this afternoon, thunderstorms will develop to the west across eastern WY/CO and portions of the Panhandle. Storms will track southeast as they grow upscale with time. An initial threat for isolated large hail west of Highway 61, with any discrete storms. Most of the activity will move in mid through late evening, as a few clusters or a loosely organized line. This suggests that the main severe threat locally would be damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain, with PWAT values still exceeding the 90th percentile climo across the area. The latest CAMs remain split on the location of convection, with a few focusing across portions of the western Sandhills into west central NE, while others are confined to the southeast panhandle and far southwest, or even south of the forecast area.

Will be monitoring for a threat for localized flash flooding tonight, primarily in areas that saw heavy rain from overnight storms across the southeast panhandle and southwest Nebraska. Storms may be slow to exit far southeast Nebraska late tonight, but should become focused from north central Kansas into south central NE late. Lows tonight falling into the upper 50s to low 60s across the area.

On Sunday, dry conditions expected during the morning into the afternoon hours with highs from the upper 70s to around 80 as weak surface high pressure moves east. Another round of thunderstorms possible across the western Sandhills and north central Nebraska during the evening and overnight hours. Confidence in coverage and location of these storms continues to remain low, with guidance suggesting the greatest coverage into the western Sandhills and north central NE. The better instability looks confined to along and west of HWY 61 Sunday evening. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats, with deep layer shear 30 to 35kts and modest instability of 500-1000 J/kg.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The active pattern continues Monday through Wednesday night, as upper ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS. This leads to a west-northwest flow aloft. Guidance suggests occasional disturbances will progress through the mean flow aloft, with a daily threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area. PWAT values will also fall into next week, as we lose the monsoonal moisture with the transition to northwest flow. Some threat for severe storms will also persist Monday, and also on Tuesday as a cold front drops through the region. The threat for thunderstorms continues through Wednesday night, with drier conditions expected Thursday through Saturday as an upper ridge builds back over the region.

Temperatures look to remain near average Monday in the mid to up 80s, to below average by Wednesday. This will keep any heat concerns away, with a pleasant week expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours, except where thunderstorms occur. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska this evening into the early morning hours. Did include a TEMPO at KLBF from 04Z until 07Z for 5SM -TSRA BKN050CB. Confidence in timing and location of thunderstorms remains below average, and refinement to the KLBF TAF are possible.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.