textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Lows tonight will be cold with readings in the single digits to around zero. Wind chills will range from zero to 15 below zero Monday morning.

- Mainly dry forecast expected through Thursday night. There is a threat for light snow, mainly over northern Nebraska Friday through Saturday.

- Temperatures will be highly variable this week with the warmest days on Tuesday and Thursday. Much colder temperatures are expected next weekend.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

H5 analysis this morning continues to show a highly amplified pattern across the CONUS and Canada. Ridging extended up the west coast of the CONUS, northwest into Alaska. East of this feature, strong low pressure was located over Hudson Bay of Canada. this was in association with a long wave trough of low pressure across the eastern 3/4ths of Canada and the United States. This trough extended all the way south to the bay of Campeche. Within this trough a decent shortwave was noted over western North Dakota this morning. At the surface...low pressure was located over the arrowhead of Minnesota. An occluded front extended south of the low into southeastern South Dakota where it became a warm front south into eastern Nebraska. Across central into west central South Dakota an arctic cold front was present. South of this feature, over central Nebraska a pre frontal trough (ie. wind shift line was the leading edge of strong northwesterly winds vs. slower west-northwest winds). This feature had tracked through most of western and north central Nebraska as of 1 PM CT with wind speeds picking up across the area. So far, the highest wind gust was at Broken Bow just after passage of the surface trough at 61 MPH. Scattered snow showers continue to impact locations roughly east of a line from Merriman to Callaway. These showers have a history of producing brief, high intensity snowfall. Based on highway cams, snow accumulations on roadways have been mainly confined to locations northeast of a Valentine to Burwell line where road temperatures and air temperatures remain above freezing. Temperatures as of 2 PM CT ranged from 32 degrees at Valentine to 48 degrees at Imperial and Grant.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

With the bulk of the ongoing snow threat west of Boyd and Holt Counties, have cancelled the winter weather advisory for those areas. A back door arctic front, will push to the southwest tonight from South Dakota into western and southwestern Nebraska. This feature will be forced by a decent area of arctic high pressure, which will travel from southern Saskatchewan into northeastern Nebraska by 12z Monday. Northerly winds will be gusty this evening, slowly diminishing overnight. With the arctic high anchored over northeastern Nebraska Monday morning and clearing skies, cold temperatures are likely with lows bottoming out around zero in the northeastern portion of the forecast area. With diminishing winds overnight, wind chills will fall off to -10 to -15 degrees in the northeast. ATTM, not planning on issuing any cold headlines as we should remain well above the -20 degree threshold for such. High pressure will drop south into eastern Kansas then Oklahoma on Monday. Winds will shift around to the west by afternoon. However, H85 temps will struggle to reach 0C in the far SW Monday afternoon. Even with some limited mixing, highs will struggle to get out of the 30s over SW Nebraska Monday. Further north and east, where the arctic airmass will be entrenched, highs will struggle to reach the lower to middle 20s over northeastern Nebraska. A second, weaker area of high pressure will track across the eastern Dakotas into western Iowa Monday night. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air into northeastern portions of the forecast area. However, with this being a weaker cold airmass, arctic air should remain east of a Valentine to Broken Bow line. Overnight lows will range from around 5 above in the northeast to around 10 degrees over southwestern into western Nebraska.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 316 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Arctic air will retreat northeast of the area Tuesday. At the same time, surface low pressure will develop over the northern high plains forcing a warm front into central and eastern Nebraska Tuesday. This will result in highs ranging from the middle 30s in the northeast to middle 50s in the southwest. Based on forecast H85 temps at 21z Tuesday in the GFS and NAM12 soln from this morning, the NBM forecast appears on track. The surface low will track from South Dakota into northern Iowa Tuesday night, forcing a cold front through the forecast area. This will result in cooler readings for Wednesday with highs in the lower 30s to middle 40s. Beyond Wednesday the deterministic models re- establish the arctic airmass over the upper Midwest into the Dakotas. This air eventually pushes south into the Central Plains Thursday night. This will lead to colder temperatures for Friday through the Weekend with highs Friday, Saturday and Sunday being in the teens to 20s. There continues to be a chance for snow next weekend with the latest NBM forecast. However, looking at the probabilistic forecast, there is only a 20-30 percent chance of measurable (0.01" or more) of precipitation during this period). This doesn't lend much forecast confidence in the precipitation forecast for next weekend. Temperatures are also problematic as well as there is a decent spread in the 25th to 75th percentile for high temperatures in the NBM beginning Friday. FWIW, forecast confidence in the extended forecast for temperatures and precipitation is fairly low with this forecast package.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Strong gusty north winds will quickly subside by early morning Monday for western Nebraska terminals. Low stratus may reintroduce some brief MVFR conditions but confidence in this is limited and so will maintain VFR for now. Afternoon gusts become possible again on Monday with peak speeds around 25 knots.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.