textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of rain showers and snow showers this afternoon into tonight.

- Mild temperatures are expected over the next 7 days with high temperatures running 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Thursday will be the warmest day of the forecast period with highs ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

H5 analysis this morning had a closed area of low pressure over southeastern Ontario. A trough of low pressure extended south of this feature into the upper Ohio Valley with generally west to east flow noted from the Arklatex east to the Carolinas. Further west, high pressure was anchored over San Fransisco CA with a ridge extending north into northern portions of British Columbia. North-Northwest and northwesterly flow extended from Alberta, to Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska. Within this flow disturbances were noted from southern Alberta to northern Colorado. This has led to a shroud of cloudiness from eastern Montana into Wyoming. At the surface, a stationary front extended from northwestern South Dakota into south central Nebraska. High pressure was anchored over northern Minnesota into western Ontario. Along and east of this boundary, a shroud of low cloudiness was present while west of this boundary skies were partly to mostly cloudy with mid and high level cloudiness present. Temperatures as of 2 PM CT ranged from 32 degrees at O'Neill to 54 degrees at Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Current satellite imagery as of 3 PM CT, has a shortwave oriented along the Montana/North Dakota and Saskatchewan border. This feature will dive to the southeast this evening. In advance of this feature, isolated to widely scattered showers will develop, mainly over the western 2/3rds of the forecast area this evening. Ptypes will initially start out as rain with a brief window of snow possible overnight. As forcing spreads into the central and eastern forecast area overnight, a tongue of mid level dry air will overspread a near saturated boundary layer. Forecast soundings are indicative of limited ice and saturation in the dendritic layer overnight into Wednesday morning-indacitive of drizzle vs.snow/rain. With the boundary layer temperatures expected to be in the mid to upper 20s by Wednesday morning, there will be a limited threat for patchy freezing drizzle overnight/Weds morning. However, looking at the 280 and 285 thetae surfaces, there is little to no upglide in the near surface layer. That being said, if freezing drizzle materializes, it will be very light and not expecting many impacts to the morning commute. ATTM, the best freezing drizzle threat is generally east of a line from North Platte to Ainsworth. Would like to emphasize once again that any freezing drizzle will be very light with limited impacts. As for the QPF forecast, the NBM ensembles, continue to hint at only trace up to 0.05 inches of precipitation tonight with the bulk of this falling this evening when temperatures favor rain vs. snow/fz drizzle. Precipitation will end mid morning Wednesday in the east as the H5 shortwave axis drops south into Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. Clearing skies and warmer H85 temps will begin to push into western Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. This will lead to highs in the upper 40s to around 50. For locations in the east, highs will only reach into the middle 30s as cloud cover is expected to persist into the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 314 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Ridging will begin to build into the western CONUS Thursday. This will force warm air east into the central and northern High Plains for Thursday. High temperatures Thursday per the NBM, range from the upper 50s in the east to the middle 60s elsewhere. Looking at the NBM ensembles, current forecast highs in the NBM are below the 25th percentile. When incorporating the 50th percentile, highs reach as high as the upper 60s to around 70. This would put record highs in jeopardy for North Platte, Valentine and Broken Bow as they are 69, 68 and 66 respectively. Will utilize the operational NBM for highs Thursday, however, would not be surprised at all if these highs trend higher with subsequent forecast packages. On Friday, a strong arctic airmass, will dive into the upper Great Lakes. The leading edge of this airmass will approach the far northeastern forecast area Friday leading to cooler highs in the mid to upper 40s for O'Neill. Elsewhere, highs will reach into the upper 50s and lower 60s in southwestern Nebraska. Ridging aloft will migrate east this weekend into Monday, becoming centered from the Dakotas south to Texas. This will lead to forecast highs ranging from the upper 50s to around 60 in the east to the mid to upper 60s in the west and southwest. Looking at the NBM ensemble spreads, the operational NBM continues to be cool and is at or below the 25th percentile this weekend for highs. Going with the median NBM forecast adds around 5 degrees to the current forecast. That being said, wouldn't be surprised if we do see some readings around 70 this weekend in SW Nebraska. FWIW, record highs this weekend are generally from the lower to middle 70s for North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow and Imperial. So, even if we do "over perform" on current forecast highs this weekend, we should fall just short of records. Beyond Monday the operational GFS and EC solns, begin to flatten the ridge across the central CONUS, with a low amplitude trough building across the Western CONUS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A stationary front will advance westward tonight to near Hwy 83. Along and east of this line low ceilings MVFR/IFR are expected. There even be some patchy light freezing drizzle, but this is expected to remain limited. Otherwise scattered rain and snow showers are expected to track south-southeast for areas mainly west of Hwy 83 mid-evening through the early morning hours. Winds will generally be from the northwest around 10 kts or less through Wednesday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.