textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence rain and snow showers through through the morning, but low confidence in snow accumulations.

- High confidence in temperatures falling into the mid to upper 20s across the region tonight.

- Low to moderate confidence in rain and thunderstorms returning Wednesday afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Precipitation will move into southwest and western Nebraska over the next few hours overspreading the region by sunrise. There is some concerns regarding precipitation type as it pushes into the region. The majority of the region will see rain initially, before temperatures drop below freezing. As surface temps drop to near 32 degrees, rain will transition over to a rain/snow mix and eventually all snow. The locations of where snow will fall is still a little uncertain, with areas across the Pine Ridge being the most likely to see any type of accumulations. However, the latest model runs indicate some snow as far south as the I-80 corridor. Currently not expecting much more than a half inch of accumulations, even across the Pine Ridge. Be aware, there is some probabilistic guidance that suggests slightly higher amounts, particularly across southwest Nebraska and just north of the I-80 corridor. Here guidance has the potential to see over a half inch 30 to 40 percent. This should be taken with a grain of salt, though, as this guidance is based off a 10:1 ratio... so would generally think amounts would slightly less if expecting the 5:1 ratios. Still, with snow ratios of 5:1, any accumulations will be slushy and very wet, and could result in some travel difficulties early this morning not only due to snow on the ground, but also due to snow as it's falling and reducing visibility.

In addition to the snow and rain potential heading into this morning, some patchy fog will also be a possibility. Some of the latest observations already have patchy fog building into the area and would expect it to continue to build across the region, generally west of US-83, but some fog could push into north central Nebraska. Fog will persevere into the morning hours before beginning to mix out by late morning. With ample moisture due to the expected rainfall, some patchy fog may continue into early afternoon, mainly across northern Nebraska.

Any snow will change over to all rain by mid-morning as temperatures rise back above freezing. The majority of any precipitation associated with this system will be stratiform in nature with QPF amounts generally under a quarter inch. Precipitation will diminish Tuesday evening as surface high pressure builds back into the region. With clearing skies Tuesday night, low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s across the region. Not anticipating any freeze headlines at this time, but will continue to be monitored.

Another trough will push through the region on Wednesday afternoon and evening bringing another round of rain and thunderstorms to the region. There will be some minimal instability (CAPE values around 500 J/kg, lapse rates around 7 C/km) around Wednesday which may result in some more organized convection. At this time, not expecting widespread severe storms, but a stronger storm with brief gusty winds and small hail cannot be ruled out. Stay tuned to the latest forecast for any changes in the severe potential on Wednesday evening. Any storm potential will be short lived, coming to an end by Midnight CT. Some isolated showers across southwest Nebraska will linger across southwest Nebraska through the overnight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 258 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Any lingering precipitation should begin to quickly exit the area by Thursday evening, as the upper trough axis pushes through aloft. Lingering cloud cover keeps highs again in the 50s on Thursday, though this looks to be the last well below average day in the extended. Heights rise into Friday morning, with increasing subsidence leading to clearing skies from north to south. Upper ridging then establishes aloft across the Rockies, and will be the primary driver in weather locally through the weekend. Highs moderate back into the lower 70s by Saturday, and into the upper 70s on Sunday. This increase in temperatures will promote much lower humidity across the area, with minimum afternoon humidity in the teens to low 20s each day this weekend. This could promote increasing fire concerns again, though this will be dependent on how fuels react to recent rainfall.

A shortwave will round the apex of the ridge axis Sunday night into Monday, and this could lead to light precipitation across portions of the area. This is in response to upslope low-level flow, and at this time western Nebraska looks to be favored for any precipitation. Confidence in accumulations remains low for now, though broad NBM probabilities of >0.10" of ~20-30% exist across much of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Believe the inherited 15-25% POPs look adequate for now, and trends will continue to be monitored. Guidance suggests at least meager MUCAPE in place, and isolated thunderstorms appear possible Sunday into Monday as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Low stratus and precip will persist into this afternoon across much of western and north central Nebraska, bringing MVFR/IFR CIGs and periods of MVFR visibilities. Precipitation ends by this evening, with CIGs also expected to improve to low-end VFR tonight. Additional low stratus is possible early tomorrow morning, though confidence in this remains low for now.

Winds remain southerly today at 5 to 10kts, before becoming light and variable tonight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.