textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to high confidence in severe thunderstorms late this afternoon through the evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats, and tornadoes being a secondary threat.

- Low confidence in continued near-daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms through mid-week.

- High confidence in mild temperatures through the end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

The greatest potential for severe storms in the next week will occur late this afternoon and evening as a mid level trough pushes across Nebraska. In addition to this, current observations show a developing surface low across the Colorado/Kansas border with a well defined dry line line draped to the south. As this low pushes northeastward, the dry line will also move into southwest and southern Nebraska bringing with it a steep gradient of dewpoints and moisture across the front. With increased moisture across portions of our forecast area combined with ample instability (CAPE values potentially above 3000 J/kg, lapse rates near 7 to 9 C/km, and 0-6 km shear up to 50 knots), a favorable environment will exist for severe thunderstorm development by late this afternoon and into the evening. Storms will develop into supercells initially before becoming more linear in nature as they progress northeastward into central Nebraska. The main threats remain relatively unchanged from previous forecasts with large hail (at least 2 inches in diameter) and strong winds (at least 65 mph) being the primary threats along with the potential for a few tornadoes. Storms are expected to remain severe throughout much of the evening, gradually weakening after Midnight CT when instability begins to wane. Despite the severe potential lessening after Midnight, some lingering thunderstorms, some on the stronger side even, will be possible across north central Nebraska through sunrise Sunday morning when storms completely move off to the east and slowly dissipate.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Another round of convection is possible on Sunday as the severe threat shifts slightly to the east. A shortwave will push through northern and eastern Nebraska on Sunday afternoon combining with a dryline across central Nebraska providing a favorable environment for convective initiation. Development will be primarily focused along and to the east of this dryline (mainly east of US-183) where the best moisture will be present. Even then, the latest model soundings suggest a lot of mid- level dry air around through the afternoon and early evening. This may inhibit any thunderstorm development in our area with the main action focused more across northeast Nebraska. Regardless, not expecting widespread severe, but a small window of some isolated strong to briefly severe storms could be possible before pushing to the east out of our area.

Beyond Sunday, the active weather pattern will continue as a series of shortwaves continue to track through Nebraska creating near-daily rain and thunderstorm chances through mid-week. At this time the severe risk remains uncertain, but with mild temperatures in the 80s though much of the week and some modest instability across the region, confidence in a stronger or briefly severe storm is high especially in the afternoon and evening. Stay tuned as we will continue to monitor the environment headed into next week for the severe potential.

Temperatures through the extended period remain warm and mild as continued WAA pushes into the central Plains. Highs will remain in the 80s with lows in the low to mid 50s through next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will occur this evening and overnight across all of western and north central Nebraska. Otherwise area of MVFR ceilings are expected for areas east of a line from ANW to BBW. Winds will strong, variable and gusty near any thunderstorm activity.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.