textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe threat for thunderstorms tonight (Level 1 of 5).

- Scattered severe storms possible Thursday and again on Friday with the main threat generally north of highway 92. A slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms is forecast.

- Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Wednesday across the area. The greatest threat is Sunday with decreasing chances Monday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures will be above normal over the next 7 days with highs ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

H5 pattern this morning remained highly amplified across the CONUS. High pressure was anchored over the central and southern Appalachians with ridging extending north into eastern Ontario and western Quebec. Low pressure was located over central Manitoba with high pressure located over western Nunavut and eastern portions of the NW Territories of Canada. Southwest, a broad trough of low pressure extended from British Columbia, south-southeast to Baja California. Downstream of this trough, broad southwesterly flow extended from the Four Corners, northeast into Minnesota and the northern Great Lakes. Within this flow, weak disturbances were noted this morning. Based on Satellite imagery, these shortwaves were located roughly over eastern South Dakota, central Kansas and NW Texas. At the surface this afternoon...weak surface low pressure was present over southwestern Nebraska. A weak cold front extended south of this feature into portions of eastern Colorado. East of the low pressure, a weak frontal boundary extended into the eastern Sandhills and southeastern South Dakota. Winds east and south of the before mentioned fronts were generally from the south or south southeast. Wind speeds were fairly light across the forecast area, however, they were breezy over Kansas. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon in the central and eastern Sandhills with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 80 degrees at Ainsworth and Broken Bow to 85 degrees at Ogallala.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Thunderstorm chances and the threat for severe storms is the main forecast concern in the next 36 hours. Mid level southwesterly flow will continue tonight across the area with two areas of concern for convective initiation. A weak frontal boundary will remain anchored this evening from southwestern into northeastern Nebraska. Some of the CAMS from this morning develop an isolated thunderstorm or two over the eastern Sandhills during the 22z to 02z time frame late this afternoon and evening. These model solutions, most notably the HRRR, remains inconsistent with this activity initializing convection one run, only to not initialize storms with its subsequent run. No doubt, ongoing stratocu over central Nebraska midday may inhibit convection in these areas. Will include some isolated pops along the frontal boundary through mid evening to account for this threat, however forecast confidence is low ATTM. If a storm were to initiate, it has a good potential to reach severe limits. Ample deep layer shear of 40 KTS will lead to supercell thunderstorms. SB CAPES reach 3000 to 4000 J/KG and down draft CAPES approach 2000 J/KG INVOF the front after 21z. This setup would favor strong winds with a secondary threat for large hail. Later this evening convection develops over northeastern Colorado in advance of a weak mid level disturbance. Aided by a low level jet which extends from eastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle, activity tracks northeast into the Nebraska Panhandle and western Sandhills. Forecast confidence is greater with this area of potential thunderstorms, as the latest NAM12, GFS and most of the CAMS all agree on this area of storms overnight. As for the severe threat, deep layer shear is weaker on the order of 30 KTS tonight and given the time of day, storms should not be surface based. That being said, given the drier boundary layer airmass in western Nebraska, wouldn't be surprised if a 50+ MPH wind gust occurred with the strongest storms. For Thursday into Thursday night, another round of thunderstorms will be possible across the area. By Thursday morning, surface low pressure is progged to deepen over northeastern Wyoming. East of the low, a weak warm front will become oriented INVOF the Nebraska/South Dakota border by afternoon. Thunderstorms may initiate over northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota Thursday afternoon. This activity is progged to lift to the east and northeast initially, with a easterly and southeasterly track overnight into a strengthening low level jet. Some of this activity may clip northern portions of the forecast area Thursday night as a MCS tracks east and southeast. Further south, thunderstorms may develop from far SW Nebraska south into Kansas along a bulging dryline. Mid level winds would carry this activity to the east-northeast across SW into central Nebraska Thursday evening. That being said, have positioned pops over north central Nebraska in anticipation of a MCS eventually impacting the FA from the north, and from SW into portions of central Nebraska to pick up any storms which may develop along the dryline. Forecast confidence in the south activity is lower, and will keep pops generally in the slight chance/low end chance range. As for the severe threat, strong winds would be favored across north central Nebraska with a combination of wind/hail with the southern activity. Finally, a disclaimer: The track of thunderstorms into north central Nebraska will be contingent on the location of the warm front Thursday afternoon. If this feature ends up further north than expected, precipitation chances will be decreased across the forecast area. If the front is further south, we could see some decent rainfall in northern portions of the forecast area. We should have a better handle on frontal location when tonight's expected convection ceases and moves east of the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 308 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Upper level flow is forecasted to become more zonal starting Friday and continuing through Independence Day (Saturday). An upper wave embedded in the overall flow are expected to move into the region Friday afternoon into the evening. A warm front appears to become anchored along central to eastern Nebraska during this time to promote strong to potentially severe thunderstorm activity in an environment that houses an already very unstable airmass, and a highly sheared environment with ensemble guidance suggesting 3000 to 4000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 30 - 40 kts of 0-6 km shear in along north central into eastern Nebraska. There still remains some model disagreement over exact thunderstorm development with the GFS/NAM keeping initial development along the SD/NE border, while the ECMWF and RRFS pushing that development further south into more of central to eastern Nebraska. This will be closely monitored in subsequent forecast packages.

Continuing into Independence Day, Another upper wave moves across the Northern Plains to bring another day of increased thunderstorm chances. An unstable airmass still remains (MUCAPE ranging 2000 to 4000 J/kg) over much of Nebraska. While exact track and intensity remains uncertain at this time, there is some signal among the longer range models for thunderstorms developing in north central Nebraska, generally north of HWY 2.

Heading into Sunday and early next week, there appears to be at least a short reprieve from severe weather headlines. An upper ridge starts to build in, limiting the potential for thunderstorms due to weak mid to upper level flow and warmer temperatures aloft. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region through the weekend into early next week. Fire concerns should be limited due to marginal humidities (generally 30 - 50%) from the ongoing Gulf moisture being advected upward. Something to watch for is the potential for some elevated heat stress concerns early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the effective TAF period across western and north central Nebraska. The main concerns this evening and overnight will be the development of isolated thunderstorms across the region, which are largely expected to miss area terminals. Any thunderstorm this evening may bring gusty, erratic winds, as well as brief ceiling and visibility concerns in heavier rain. Otherwise, winds are expected to remain light and variable throughout the night, becoming southerly to southeasterly by morning. Winds increase by late morning, with gusts expected across the region by the afternoon hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.