textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon across far western Nebraska. Appears to be a limited window for a couple of severe storms, especially west of Hwy 83 through early this evening.

- The Fire Weather Watch will be maintained for Sunday. Some concern that the wind will remain weaker across southwest Nebraska, and a headline may not be needed for this area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A significant warm-up is expected today as southerly low-level flow and strong WAA develops. Highs well into the 70s are expected at most locations. A surge of higher dew points (upper 40s and 50s) should limit the overall fire weather concerns today. With the surge in moisture/humidity will come a continued increase in low clouds this morning. Also expecting patchy to areas of advection fog across southwest into central Nebraska until mid-morning. Strong southerly low-level winds will will help promote deeper mixing by late morning, and the lower clouds should begin to break up and dissipate from west to east.

With the clearing will come an increase in surface based instability by mid to late this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the day, and an axis of 1500+ J/KG of surface based CAPE should develop along and east of a line from Imperial to Ogallala to Hyannis to Merriman. Shear profiles within this region are quite good, with 0-6 km values of 30-40 kts. Convergence will increase along the dryline across far western Nebraska by late afternoon. It appears initial convective development will take place near the dryline where steep low-level lapse rates will reside. There may be a brief window for dry lightning when storms first initiate, but that threat should quickly end as they move into the deeper/better moisture. Overall not expecting a lot of storms, but at least widely scattered activity, with perhaps a storm or two taking on supercell characteristics through the evening hours. Some uncertainty on how far east the storms will move. Many of the CAMs quickly decrease instability early this evening, with the storms falling apart by the time they reach Hwy 83. There will be a low-level jet, but a bit of drier air both at the surface and aloft mixes northward from western Kansas aiding in the instability loss. Appears the window for any severe storms will be limited and might not be much activity after mid-evening.

Attention then turns to fire weather on Sunday. The Fire Weather Watch will be maintained with this forecast package. Temperatures Sunday will be quite warm with very low humidity values. Some concern on how strong the westerly winds will be, especially across southwest Nebraska. Will side on the stronger side as very deep mixing should help bring stronger winds aloft to the surface. Even so, southwest Nebraska may not meet criteria, but looks favorable across the Sandhills, Panhandle and into north central Nebraska.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Monday will feature warm temperatures and dry boundary layer conditions. With afternoon highs reaching around 80 and widespread minimum RH falling to 12 to 22 percent across the forecast area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon. Winds will be the main question mark as to whether or not we reach critical fire weather conditions or not. ATTM, the latest NBM ensemble forecast has less than a 20% chance of > 25 MPH wind gusts Monday afternoon over northwestern portions of the forecast area. This probability drops off to near zero for the remainder of the forecast area. When this threshold is dropped to 20 MPH, there is a 30 to 50 % chance of wind gusts reaching this speed in the NW forecast area. Elsewhere, the chance is less than 10 percent. That being said, will not be issuing a fire weather watch for Monday afternoon with this package, however, will continue to hit the near critical messaging in the HWO and DSS partner packets. On Monday night, a northern stream shortwave trough will lift across northern South Dakota and North Dakota. The latest NAM12 soln does have some elevated instability across the panhandle into the western Sandhills and NW portions of the forecast area Monday evening. Given the expected dry boundary layer, dry lightning may become a concern in these areas Monday evening. The northern stream shortwave, will force a weak cold font through the area Monday night. This will result in highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s for Tuesday and gusty northwesterly winds. With the cooler readings, minimum RH Tuesday afternoon will bottom out at 20 to 30 percent and should miss critical criteria. Late Tuesday, an upper level trough will cross the central Rockies, approaching the central and southern Plains Tuesday night. This will bring an increased threat for light precipitation to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Model trends continue to lower pops as the threat for measurable >0.01" of precipitation has trended downward. The latest NBM ensemble has only a 50% chance of 0.01" or greater QPF over NW Nebraska Tuesday night. This chance falls off quickly heading southeast. For the bulk of the forecast area Tuesday night, the percentages of measurable precipitation are generally 20 to 40 percent. When the threshold is increased to 0.05 inches, percentages of exceedance fall into the 10 to 30 percent range. So by no means will this be a wetting rain midweek. Wednesday and Thursday will feature warm temperatures, dry conditions and increased fire danger. Highs Wednesday will reach the lower to middle 70s with highs Thursday in the mid to upper 70s. A cold front Thursday night, will drop highs back into the 50s for Friday. Precipitation chances in association with the front appear low as the best forcing is north and southeast of the forecast area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect IFR ceilings this morning with cloud decks ranging from 400 to 800 FT AGL. Ceilings will increase to around 2000 FT AGL after 18z, then 20000 FT AGL by late afternoon. There will be a threat for thunderstorms from 00z to 06z Sunday and, with scattered coverage expected, will handle this with a prob30 group. Skies will then scatter out overnight. For the KVTN terminal: IFR ceilings will continue through mid morning with MVFR ceilings developing late morning. Ceilings will then scatter out by mid afternoon with cloud decks ranging from 20000 to 25000 FT AGL.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NEZ204-206-208-210.