textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through the night for portions of the area.

- Rain and snow chances increase Wednesday through Thursday morning.

- Low confidence in precipitation Friday through Saturday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Red Flag Warning has been extended through the night until 7am CDT Tuesday morning. Scattered high based convection is expected to develop late this afternoon across the Panhandle ahead of a weak shortwave. Little if any rainfall is expected with this activity due to a very dry boundary layer. Isolated dry lightning strikes will become a concern as the activity moves into western Nebraska and the Sandhills through this evening. An abrupt wind shift to the north is expected from north to south as a cold front quickly moves southward across the area overnight. Any fire start from a lightning strike could quickly spread as the strong north winds increase. Otherwise, the winds will be quite strong, with the HRRR runs continuing to suggest gusts nearing 55 mph from central into southwest Nebraska from just before sunrise until about mid-morning Tuesday. Winds then will begin to decrease from late morning into the afternoon as they become more from the northeast. Still some fire weather concerns Tuesday, but with the humidity a bit higher, and the cooler temperatures, critical conditions are not expected.

The next concern will be the potential for precipitation, including wet snow as we head into Wednesday through Thursday morning. A strong shortwave will be moving across the Rockies Wednesday. Large scale ascent and WAA aloft will increase through the day Wednesday. Showery precipitation will likely increase through the as a result. The system will try and take more of a negative tilt as it closes off at H7 across the region. This would increase the likelihood for at least some precipitation. Probability for 1/10 of an inch liquid is high; >80% for areas along and east of Highway 83. Even increasing that to 1/4 of an inch is still >70%. As far as snowfall, decent probability of 2" or more of wet snow across northern Nebraska. Will continue to monitor.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A longwave upper trough from the Pacific Northwest will track through the central plains Friday morning through late Saturday evening. The result of this upper low moving through the region is a chance (30 - 50%) of precipitation during this timeframe. Current ensemble guidance has the 50th percentile at a tenth of an inch, while possible high end amounts (90th percentile) reaching a half an inch of precipitation. There is some uncertainty on whether this precipitation will fall completely as rain or snow. LREF guidance has a 30 - 50% probability of quarter of an inch of snow or greater with the highest end being 2 - 4 inches (10% chance) for north- central NE. Confidence remains low at this time because of uncertainty of the track and timing of the upper low.

High temperatures are expected to be 5 - 10 degrees below normal in northern Ne to near normal further south through the early weekend. As zonal flow starts to reestablish across the region, Sunday and Monday highs are expected to warm up, being slightly warmer than normal. With these slightly warmer temperatures, there will be some elevated to near critical fire weather concerns once again. Highest concerns will be regions that are overlayed where humidities are in the upper teens to low 20s across western NE, and gusty winds.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 651 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with mostly broken to overcast skies, generally high clouds. There will be some mid level clouds moving into northern Nebraska Tuesday morning. Winds will increase tonight and switch to the north with winds around 15 to 20 kts and gusts of 35 kts through Tuesday afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday for NEZ204- 206-208-210.