textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon, primarily across western Nebraska. A few storms could be strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards.

- Mainly dry conditions expected this weekend with only a minor threat for storms Friday night. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive Monday and persist through Wednesday.

- Highs will be well into the 90s for Saturday and Sunday with readings retreating to the 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday, with 80s on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Currently, weak surface high pressure is positioned across western Nebraska, with light and variable winds across much of the area. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 50s to low 60s, with the exception of northwest Nebraska where breezy south winds is holding temperatures in the low 70s.

This surface high pressure is expected to slowly drift east this morning, with weak southerly winds returning to the entire area prior to sunrise. The close proximity of this surface high will allow for ample radiational cooling for patchy fog development this morning, primarily for areas along and south of HWY 2. Guidance suggests a threat for dense fog, and confidence in coverage has increased enough to hoist a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of southwest/central Nebraska.

Increasing surface cyclogenesis across northeastern Colorado will lead to strengthening south winds by late this morning, and this should quickly erode any lingering patchy fog across the area. This will also bring richer surface dewpoints back northwards, with lower to middle 60 dewpoints overspreading western and southwest Nebraska today. By late afternoon, a sharpening dryline will be positioned near HWY 61, with weak surface low pressure centered across central South Dakota. It will be along this dryline where isolated thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon. Confidence in any convective initiation remains low for now, with very weak convergence expected along the boundary and subtle height rises aloft. That said, guidance does suggest very little in the way of lingering CIN by late afternoon along the boundary, and at least a couple of storms forming remains plausible. Any storms that do form look to become organized, with ample flow aloft leading to long and straight hodographs. A supercellular storm mode would be favored in any updrafts that can sustain, and this could lead to a threat for damaging winds and large hail. Storms are expected to quickly weaken after sunset, as inhibition quickly increases again.

A surface cool front is then expected to push south through the area Friday morning, and stall near the I-80 corridor by Friday afternoon. Surface high pressure is expected to move into eastern South Dakota in the wake of this front, ushering in a much drier airmass into north central Nebraska. Temperatures are also expected to be a few degrees colder Friday afternoon in north central Nebraska as well, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Winds quickly return east-southeast for areas near and south of the aforementioned stalled surface boundary, with middle 60 dewpoints expected to pool wherever this boundary ends up. Any convection along this boundary remains very low confidence, though any storms that form would likely pose a threat for severe weather across southwest Nebraska. Trends will continue to be monitored closely as mesoscale details become more clear Friday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The latest NBM forecast initiated with some isolated pops across northern into eastern portions of the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday. This is supported somewhat by the NBM ensemble QPF exceedance forecast which has 20 to 30 percent chances of QPF>0.01" from north central into eastern portions of the CWA. This is also supported by the deterministic NAM12 soln tonight which develops convection along the nose of a low level jet, co-located with an area of decent mid level warm air advection. With the NBM forecast capping pops under 20 percent, feel the initialized forecast is plausible ATTM. Model agreement between the NAM12 and GFS is lacking Saturday with its forecast of a warm frontal boundary. The GFS lifts this feature north through the forecast area Saturday morning with the NAM 12 soln stalling this feature along the Nebraska/Kansas border. No surprise, the latest MET and MAV guidance for highs for LBF Saturday are 87 and 101 degrees respectively. Given the large discrepancy between the two models, the NBM is preferred here and was utilized for highs Saturday. High pressure aloft, will remain anchored over the Four Corners through Sunday. This will lead to a second day of very warm temperatures across the forecast area with highs reaching the middle to upper 90s. The high will begin to retrograde slowly west Monday amplifying mid level flow across the central CONUS. With the high retrograding west, slightly cooler temperatures will develop early next week. After highs in the 80s and lower 90s Monday and Tuesday, readings will cool into the 80s Wednesday. The threat for precipitation will increase toward the middle of next week as a series of disturbances cross the central plains. ATTM, the best chances for precipitation are Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Low stratus and fog is expected to overspread much of southwest and central Nebraska early Thursday morning, with IFR/locally LIFR CIGs and visibilities expected. This low stratus and patchy fog is expected to quickly erode after sunrise, with VFR then expected to prevail through Thursday night for all terminals.

Winds remain light from the south through early Thursday morning, at 5 to 10kts. Winds then strengthen from the south Thursday afternoon, with gusts as high as 20 to 30kts expected for all terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ027>029-038-057>059-069>071.