textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through this evening, due to low humidity and gusty winds. An abrupt wind shift is expected following a cold frontal passage.

- Cooler temperatures and breezy conditions expected behind the cold front. While there is some chance for rain and snow, amounts are expected to remain very low, generally less than one tenth of an inch.

- Elevated to near critical fire conditions are possible Sunday through Wednesday, with Wednesday having the greatest potential for critical fire weather conditions.

- Warmer temperatures return Monday through Wednesday, with highs climbing into the 80s. Little to no precipitation is expected through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to last this afternoon and evening across all of western and north central Nebraska. As of 1 PM, already observing critical relative humidity values, generally at or below 15 percent across the entire region. Additionally, gusty southerly to southwesterly winds are occurring across the region, with peak gusts around 35 mph. These critical fire weather conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Around sunset, as a low level inversion develops, expecting a brief period of less gusty winds, but still expect steady winds around 10 to 15 mph. However, the calm is short lived, as a cold front tracks into the region, bringing an abrupt wind shift to northerly winds, with gusty winds lasting throughout the night. As temperatures cool off behind the front, humidity will recover to around 70 to 80 percent, which should limit fire weather concerns overnight, despite the gusty winds, so have maintained the Red Flag expiration for Midnight central.

As the front pushes through the region overnight, it will also introduce a chance for precipitation, mainly along and west of Highway 83. The best chances for precipitation remain across northwest Nebraska, in the Pine Ridge vicinity. Precipitation is expected to start initially as rain, with a switch over to snow late night into the early morning. As with the last several systems, expecting this to be a low precipitation event, with liquid precipitation amounts only around a few hundredth of an inch. As for snow amounts, generally expecting this to be a dusting to a tenth of an inch, mostly in the Pine Ridge vicinity. Given the general lack of precipitation, not expecting this to be impactful precipitation event, but something to be cognizant of during the morning commute.

Skies remain mostly cloudy throughout the day on Friday, with strong cold air advection remaining behind the front. This should keep temperatures on the colder side, and in collaboration with neighboring offices, have decided to lower temperatures across the region. In general, expecting highs to remain in the 40s throughout the day. However, with strong northerly winds remaining across the region, expecting that these temperatures will have a bit of a bite, with wind chills in the 20s and 30s throughout the afternoon. Precipitation chances are expected to continue through the afternoon, though again, expecting very little precipitation with this, only on the order of a few hundredths of an inch precipitation. In general, expect a cold, cloudy, and dreary day for Friday.

Overnight Friday, temperatures remain cold. In fact, overnight lows are currently forecast to be less than the 10th percentile compared to climatology for western Nebraska, but expected to remain above record lows. Either way, this will be a big shock compared to how warm we have been, especially to plants. For now, these forecast lows are in the low 20s, with wind chills in the low teens. Seeing as we have had anomalously high temperatures recently and are now expecting anomalously low overnight temperatures, have decided to maintain the inherited Freeze Watch for Friday night into Saturday morning. Have also included a mention of frost in the forecast, as these temperatures are expected to remain cold throughout the night. Again, this will be especially hazardous to plants and sprouting vegetation, as well as to sprinkler and irrigation systems. With this major swing in the forecast, make sure to take precautions for this cold blast.

Temperatures then moderate on Saturday afternoon, with near seasonal to slightly cooler than seasonal temperatures across the region. Highs in the 50s to 60s are expected. For reference, typical highs this time of year are around 61 to 63 degrees across western and north central Nebraska. Outside of a low end chance of localized showers near Pine Ridge, not expecting any precipitation Saturday afternoon. However, despite the seasonal temperatures, relative humidity remains low, and gusty northwest winds are expected across most of the region. This may introduce additional fire weather concerns this weekend, so will continue to closely monitor the forecast over the next few cycles to see if additional fire weather headlines will be needed.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The upper level trough will quickly move east Saturday night through Sunday morning. In its wake, a surface high pressure will move across central Nebraska. With dry air in place, clear skies, light winds, and continued dry soils, several hours of below-freezing temperatures appear likely Sunday morning, with lows in the middle 20s. Upper level ridging will then build from the Rockies into the Plains, pushing warmer air back into the area. 850mb temperatures are expected to reach 10 to 15 C by Sunday afternoon, supporting highs in the mid 60s north to the upper 70s across southern portions of the area. Relative humidity values will fall into the 10 to 20 percent range by Sunday afternoon. Winds on Sunday are expected to remain lighter, generally in the 10 to 15 mph range, so critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated at this time. However, any increase in wind speeds or gusts could lead to greater fire weather concerns, so this will continue to be monitored.

The upper level ridge will remain in place across the region Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will stay warm, with highs in the low to mid 80s both days. Conditions will also remain dry, with RH values once again falling into the 10 to 15 percent range. Winds on Monday and Tuesday are forecast to remain around 10 to 15 mph, though gusts of 20 to 25 mph appear possible both days. At least elevated fire weather concerns are expected Monday and Tuesday, with critical fire weather conditions possible if winds end up stronger than currently forecast.

By Wednesday, the upper level ridge will begin shifting east as the next storm system develops across the western United States. Wednesday currently appears to have the greatest potential for fire weather conditions, with minimum RH values in the 15 to 20 percent range and stronger southerly winds ahead of a developing low pressure system in the Rockies. Precipitation chances through Wednesday remain little to none. Once again, Wednesday currently appears to have the greatest potential for critical fire weather conditions, and this will continued to be monitored over the coming days.

Beyond Wednesday, a strong southern stream trough shown by both the EPS and GEFS is forecast to eject into the region by late Thursday. Ahead of this storm system, better low level moisture should return to the area as southerly flow strengthens across the Plains. There is still considerable uncertainty with this system given that it is still a week out, but it currently appears to be the next chance for precipitation, including thunderstorms, across western and north- central Nebraska.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the day and into the evening across western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain gusty out of the south this afternoon, with gusts briefly decreasing this evening. Late this evening, a strong cold front tracks into the region, bringing an abrupt wind shift to northerly winds, with gusts increasing through the night. As the front tracks into the region, also expect increasing rain and snow chances across northwest Nebraska, though amounts will be light. This will also usher in MVFR to IFR ceilings across the region during the morning and early afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions persist this afternoon and evening, with ongoing low relative humidity and gusty southerly to southwesterly winds. A brief lull in gusts is expected this evening, however a passing cold front will increase wind gusts this evening, as well as bring an abrupt shift to northerly winds. The front will bring a chance for rain and snow showers tonight, but expecting very little liquid precipitation with this system, generally remaining around a few hundredths at best. However, the front will help humidity recover to around 70 to 80 percent overnight, which will help limit fire weather concerns despite the gusty winds.

Fire weather concerns remain low on Friday, but quickly return Saturday afternoon, as gusty winds and low relative humidity are expected across the region. Beyond Saturday expecting at least elevated to near critical concerns through mid week, largely driven by low humidity. Will continue to keep an eye on the wind forecasts closely over the next several days.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.