textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions are likely for much of western and central Nebraska on Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon/night, mainly over western and southwestern Nebraska. The severe threat is low.

- Well above average temperatures are expected next week, with highs returning to the 80s. Highs on Monday and Thursday are forecasted to approach 90.

- Near critical, and possibly critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday through Wednesday across the area.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

H5 analysis this morning had a closed area of low pressure over Hudson Bay in Canada. A trough extended south of this feature to Lake Superior. A second trough of low pressure extended from Quebec, south into New England. Further west, a ridge of high pressure extended from northern California, north into British Columbia. Immediately west of this feature, a shortwave trough of low pressure extended along the west coast of Canada to just off the shore of Washington State. Further east, a shortwave trough was present from central Nebraska southwest into northeastern Colorado. This disturbance continues to drop southeast today and a broad shield of clouds in association with this feature were located over central and eastern Kansas this afternoon. Another decent disturbance was located just south of New Mexico, while high pressure was located over western Cuba. At the surface this afternoon, a stationary front was situated from southwestern Kansas into northern Missouri. Winds behind the front were northwesterly this afternon with gusts in the 25 to 35 MPH range. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy with abundant altocumulus clouds across the forecast area. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 66 at Gordon to 75 degrees at Broken Bow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Overnight, the shortwave, currently off the coast of Washington State, will migrate east, ending up over western Montana by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a cold front will track across South Dakota tonight, backing into northeastern Nebraska by 12z Saturday. This feature will then back into the forecast area from the east on Saturday. For tonight, am expecting relatively clear skies and light winds across the area. This will allow lows to reach the lower 40s across the area. Based on the latest MAV guidance, will trend lows down slightly in the Platte River Valley where readings around 40 seem reasonable. On Saturday, the cold front will push into the northern half of the forecast area midday. Highs across the northern forecast area will be in the mid to upper 60s. Highs south of the front, generally south of highway 2, will be in the 70s. By mid afternoon, the H85 front will extend from the Panhandle, southeast into SW Nebraska. Later in the afternoon, the shortwave will approach northeastern Wyoming from western Montana. In advance of this feature, steepening lapse rates, coupled with the approach of the shortwave will lead to the development of showers across the Black Hills and far NW Nebraska. This activity will then track to the south southeast into the evening hours. Modest 300-500 J/KG mixed layer CAPE is present from the southern Panhandle into SW Nebraska Saturday afternoon, per the latest NAM12 soln. The threat for thunderstorms is also supported by slightly negative LI's in the before mentioned areas. With this instability present, decided to insert a mention of thunder in the forecast for the Saturday/Saturday evening time period. ATTM any severe threat should be minor given the lack of low level moisture and would be confined to a threat for marginally gusty winds (ie. non-severe). The cold front will be forced further south Saturday night into Sunday. This, coupled with the exiting shortwave, will lead to cooler and drier conditions for Sunday. As for fire weather concerns, Saturday will feature slightly cooler temps and Sunday even cooler. Winds on Saturday may briefly meet critical red flag criteria, however with the cooler temps and min RH in the upper 20s to upper 30s%, no critical RFW conditions are anticipated ATTM. Sunday will see lighter winds and min RH around 30 percent.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A broad ridge of high pressure aloft will build into the southwestern CONUS Monday, transitioning east midweek next week. This feature will lead to high temperatures well into the 80s for Monday through Friday. As for fire weather concerns, they appear greatest on Monday and Wednesday in the west and Tuesday in the east. Min RH on Monday and Wednesday reaches 15 to 20 percent across the area. Min RH on Tuesday, approaches 20 percent for the entire forecast area. Winds appear strongest Monday and Wednesday with good gust potential up to 25 MPH per the latest NBM probabilistic ensemble forecast. On Tuesday afternoon, gust potential up to 25 MPH looks decent in the eastern CWA per the latest NBM ensemble probabilistic forecast. After Wednesday, the NBM does hold onto the drier air across the forecast area. However, the latest deterministic, GFS and EC soln's do push a plume of gulf moisture north into the area Thursday and Friday. This results in surface dew points reaching into the 50s. This will reduce the fire threat across the area, replacing it with a threat for thunderstorms. The latest GFS soln develops a nice instability axis from the southern into the central Plains toward the end of next week. With the ridge beginning to break down midweek next week and a transition to west and west southwest flow aloft, we could see the first decent threat for strong to potentially severe storms across the area late next week. This possible threat was mentioned in the latest SWOD48 from SPC earlier today.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through Saturday morning. Scattered cumulus clouds and a few isolated showers will be possible this afternoon. Surface winds will be gusty from the north to northwest this afternoon and then decrease tonight. Winds increase again from north to south Saturday as a cold front moves southward through the region.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.