textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain or rain/snow mix will continue through early this evening but marginal temperatures will limit if not preclude any wintry impacts.

- Patchy fog is likely to develop across much of western Nebraska Tuesday night into Wednesday, with locally dense fog possible for the Wednesday morning drive.

- Return to warmer temperatures (low to mid 70s) heading into the weekend

- Low confidence in rain and thunderstorms returning Sunday evening through Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Early this morning and afternoon, scattered to widespread precipitation tracked out of the Nebraska Panhandle through much of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. This was driven by a modest shortwave moving off the higher terrain. Ample mid-level moisture with cooler surface temperatures thanks to lingering surface high pressure allowed for rain to transition to snow. Moderate to even heavy bursts of snow, thanks to steep lapse rates aloft beneath a core of colder h5 temperatures, lead to brief periods of less than one mile visibility and slushy accumulations on some area roads. Mesoanalysis with support from midday satellite imagery shows the trough axis quickly approaching our western zones and this should effectively sweep the precipitation out of western Nebraska. Light rain and/or snow may persist for portions of northern Nebraska into the evening hours but wintry impacts are largely complete and shouldn't be an issue overnight tonight.

For tonight...the main concern will then focus on the threat for fog development. Recent rainfall has bolstered low-level moisture across the area. MRMS estimates show a fairly large expanse of 0.15"+ liquid equivalent across the southern Sandhills into portions of southwest Nebraska. High pressure will settle south and east through the area. As winds go light beneath clearing mid and upper-level skies, radiational cooling with the increased moisture should lead to a rapid development of fog for much of the forecast area. HREF probabilities suggest a quick ramp up in < 1SM probabilities, reaching 70%+ by 2-3am CDT with values not falling below this threshold again until closer to 9-10am CDT. Have elected to cover this area with a patchy fog mention for now. Late morning HRRR guidance shows a similar footprint with < 1/2SM visibility for many locations across the area. Fog is notoriously tricky at range, especially the expected magnitude. Though confidence in occurence is on the higher end, will allow subsequent shifts to decide placement of any potential Dense Fog Advisory. Given the increased moisture and expected fog development, overnight lows were increased slightly. Many locations will still fall below the freezing mark but middle 20s appears increasingly unlikely and given many locations have already reached the hard freeze criteria in the past few weeks, will forego any Frost/Freeze headlines at this time.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...fog will be slow to dissapate as low- level winds remain weak through much of the late morning hours. Winds should back to the south as high pressure settles east. This should allow for enough low-level convergence off the Cheyenne Ridge to form some afternoon showers and thunderstorms for our far southwest. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s with slight increases in low-level moisture through the daytime. This will result in limited instability with negative LIs and MUCAPE nearing 250-350 j/kg. While deep layer shear will be strong beneath a departing belt of strong h5 flow, the meager instability will preclude any severe potential. HREF measurable rainfall probabilities increase by midday over northeast Colorado with further increases by mid-afternoon reaching southwest Nebraska. QPF appears fairly limited, with > 0.05" potential only reaching around 50% for our far southwest from the HREF output. While the NBM is more bullish, showing nearly 50% for exceeding 0.25", deterministic CAMs such as the HRRR/NAM Nest show this being fairly spotty in nature and unlikely to be observed over a majority of the area. Have PoPs reaching near 40-50% in our southwest with a blanket Slight Chance (< 25%) elsewhere. This is due to steepening low-level lapse rates within a developing cu field potentially leading to isolated shower activity. Forecast soundings show reasonable depth to this saturated layer to perhaps lead to an isolated lightning threat but will hold off on inserting this until confidence in increases. PoPs should decrease for most by late Wednesday. The exception to this will be far southwest zones where renewed development from a shortwave crossing the Front Range may graze the area to the southwest. Thursday morning lows were increased as a result of cloud cover and precipitation with 30s across the area but values closer to 40F in our far south through central Nebraska.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Lingering precipitation should begin to clear out of the region by Thursday evening. Thursday highs should reach the upper 50s to low 60s as slightly below normal temperatures will remain through the rest of the week. A blocking ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest will take shape late this week into the early weekend. A developing low forms off the coast of NorCal with a mid to upper ridge building downstream of it. This upper level ridge starts to move in from the Rockies and will be the driving force for a warmup heading into the weekend. Highs will climb to the low to upper 70s (5 to 10 degrees above normal) through the weekend and early next week. The result from the warmer temperatures and the ridge building in is humidity dropping into the lower teens to mid 20s each day, starting Saturday through Monday. This could lead to heightened fire weather concerns again, although this will be dependent of how receptive fuel are to recent precipitation this week and whether winds trend stronger heading into the late weekend.

An embedded shortwave may develop on the leeward side of the upper ridge and trek over west-central NE Sunday evening into Monday. This pattern could signal some light precipitation across the western portions of the region, but amounts remain low if any at this time with latest LREF probabilities of >0.10" being 10 - 20%. Additionally, guidance shows a non zero chance (15 to 25%) of isolated thunderstorms developing within the area, but confidence remains low at this time. The forecast will continue to be monitored and refined in the coming days for any changes.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Conditions continue to improve for southwest Nebraska including the LBF airspace as steady rain/snow continues to lift north and east. Isolated activity will develop behind the clearing line and will pose a threat for a few more hours. Given limited coverage and brief impacts, will cover with a TEMPO for now.

Main concern turns to fog development tonight. Latest HRRR/HREF output highlights a long window of dense fog impacting the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. LBF will likely see significant impacts as a result and have inserted a prevailing mention of 1/2SM with FG for much of the morning Wednesday. This aligns with recent HRRR runs in addition to morning HREF probabilities. The main focus should remain south of VTN but did mention a brief period of MVFR conditions.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.