textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning in effect Tuesday morning.

- Dry and cooler through Wednesday when light rain showers return to portions of western Nebraska.

- Temperatures will steadily climb day-over-day through the weekend, with a return to 70s and 80s likely by Saturday/Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Temperatures will become cold tonight with lows well below normal. Normal lows are in the mid 40s to upper 40s. Overnight lows will be around 10 to 15 degrees colder than normal lows with temperatures in the 30s. Confidence was greatest in temperatures below freezing for areas across western Nebraska, generally west of HWY 61. For areas east of HWY 61, there still remains lower confidence in temperatures dipping below the freezing mark. Latest models have remained consistent in the low cloud deck sticking around all through the overnight and morning. Cloud coverage are expected to keep temperatures from plummeting below freezing and probabilities of temperatures dropping below freezing levels are around 10 percent leading to higher confidence temperatures will not reach a hard freeze east of HWY 61, thus decided to keep the frost advisory going for this area, instead of upgrading to a freeze warning as lows will hover just above freezing.

Cooler airmass and northerly winds will keep cooler temperatures for Tuesday with highs remaining well below normal. Temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60s across the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska and will be even cooler across the northern Sandhills with highs in the upper 50s.

A front will move northward into portions of southwest Nebraska Wednesday. This area will become the focus for some lift in the area that could lead to a slight chance of rain shower, mainly along and west of HWY 83 across southwest Nebraska where moisture is greater. At this time any rainfall that does occur will remain light, with only around a tenth or less expected. Temperatures on Wednesday will still remain below normal with highs mostly in the mid to upper 50s across most of western Nebraska and the Sandhills. North central Nebraska will be slightly warmer, however temperatures will struggle to reach the low 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Wednesday Night...Precipitation chances will persist into Wednesday evening within return southerly flow behind departing high pressure. A subtle shortwave will cross western Kansas/Nebraska with continued warm air advection feeding light rain chances. NBM maintains appreciable QPF probabilities, with 30-45% potential for seeing 0.25" or more south of a Hayes Center to Brady line. Instability is sorely lacking during this time, so rain should occur largely without thunder. Even with precipitation potential and increasing clouds, a fairly cool night is expected with lows falling into the middle to upper 30s. These values are generally 5-10F below normal for late May.

Thursday/Friday...upper troughing will settle south across Wyoming with subsequent height falls overspreading much of the Central High Plains. Increasing lee troughing will promote slightly backed flow resulting in increasing moisture reaching the Front Range. Daytime temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side with highs only reaching the low to middle 60s. NBM median output suggests modest instability developing during the afternoon to our west, with afternoon convection likely to develop along the I-25 corridor. Within strong westerly mid-level flow, showers and thunderstorms should move east into our far western zones towards late evening and persist long enough to reach the Highway 83 corridor. With quickly waning instability, the threat for any stronger storms appears low. Thursday night low temperatures should settle into the lower 40s which will be closer to seasonal norms though continuing to be slightly below normal. By early Friday, the main trough aloft should begin to eject out of southeast Wyoming/northeast Colorado. A surface cool front will settle into our western zones and this coincident with the passing trough axis should herald the end to precipitation chances. NBM suggests rainfall will favor the morning hours with decreasing probabilities after daybreak. Beneficial rainfall appears possible with > 50% probabilities for exceeding 0.50" of rain south of I-80. Decreasing the threshold to > 0.10" shows 50%+ for all locations southeast of a Cody to Brownlee to Bartlett line. While certainly not a drought buster, incremental progress in catching up on the moisture deficit is certainly welcomed. Even with the approaching front and persistent clouds/precipitation, temperatures on Friday should continue the steady climb from the previous few days. Afternoon highs are progged to reach the low to middle 60s for most and upper 60s for our far southern zones. This appears to be the final day of widespread below normal temperatures within the forecast period.

This weekend and beyond...upper troughing will quickly lift north into Canada with broad positive height anomalies overspreading much of CONUS. Low-amplitude ridging will establish itself across the Great Basin by early next week. This will lead to continued warming temperatures and daytime highs making a return to 80s and potentially the lower 90s to start next week. Upper ridging does not appear to be overly strong so concerns for any anomalous heat wave remains low. Troughing should approach the Pacific Northwest sometime around Monday/Tuesday. This should effective quell the upper-ridging and return the area to more favorable southwesterly flow around Days 7-8. Because of this, precipitation potential should remain fairly consistent and this aligns with latest CPC Day 6-10 and 8-14 Precipitation outlooks which highlight portions of western Nebraska with a slight lean wetter than normal as we head into June.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Low stratus will continue to hamper aviation operations across western Nebraska through the early morning Tuesday. CIGs will begin to improve after daybreak, initially in the north with a gradual southward push. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will favor northwesterly early with sporadic gusts around 20 knots with a shift to more easterly by late in the period with speeds falling to less than 10 knots.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056-057-094. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ005-006-008-025-026-037-058-059-069-070.