textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front tonight will bring the threat for wintry precipitation in addition to harshly cold temperatures Sunday into Monday morning.

- Strong winds will gust up to 50 mph, posing a threat for blowing snow and difficult travel on east-west routes Sunday.

- Dry and mild weather is once again expected for much of the region Monday through the first weekend of 2026.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

This afternoon, southwesterly flow aloft was apparent across much of the Central and Southern Plains as mid-level cloudiness continued to emanate out of the central and southern Rockies towards the Great Lakes. Temperatures managed to climb into the 50s and lower 60s even under scattered to broken cloud cover. Winds generally remained light and this precluded greater fire weather concerns with speeds failing to reach 20 mph for any single observation point in the local area. Low-amplitude ridging, largely responsible for the recent warmth across the region, continues to settle east along the Gulf Coast with an approaching trough diving southeast out of the Canadian Rockies.

For tonight...tonight, a strong cold front will settle south out of the Northern Plains. This feature will follow the east-southeast track of the h5 trough with reinforcing strong 1035+ hPa Canadian high pressure moving along the lee of the northern Rockies. Strong pressure rises behind the front are already producing gusty winds across Montana and North Dakota where temperatures have quickly fallen into the single digits as of mid-afternoon Saturday. This is the airmass and front that will arrive tonight. Timing is approximate, around 10pm to 2am CST Sunday for complete passage through western Nebraska. This passage will be signaled by a flip to persistent northwest winds and gusts quickly climbing above 35 mph. Strong forcing via mid-level frontogenesis will saturate the profile and lead to a brief period of rain transitioning to snow. At this time, the only limitation on snow will be surface temperatures and how quickly they can fall as DGZ saturation appears to be optimal in the lead-up and during the period of greatest forcing. THis should allow for a clean transition from rain to snow and as temperatures fall, will have to be mindful of lingering wet surfaces to freeze up. While snow intensity could be moderate (up to 0.50"/hour), duration should be fairly short on the order of 1 to 3 hours total given progressive nature of frontal passage. The result is most locations seeing less than 1" of snowfall with a few locations from the Sandhills through north central Nebraska potentially seeing 1-2" before all is said and done. Temperatures as mentioned will quickly fall as strong CAA overspreads the area. Many hi-resolution NWP solutions depict temperature falls of 2-3F per hour in the pre-dawn hours. Temperatures will feel significantly colder than what we've experienced recently, and folks should be prepared.

Sunday/Sunday Night...strong CAA behind the passing cold front will continue to dominate the weather for the area on Sunday. While frontogenetical forcing will largely be south across Kansas by daybreak, lingering light snow with little to no additional accumulations will remain possible for our eastern zones through midday. The significant CAA will drive strong synoptic winds though with gusts likely reaching the 40 to 50 mph range. The impacts from this will be two fold: 1) high temperatures will be held in check with values only in the upper teens to upper 20s and wind chills likely in the single digits or sub-zero all day for many locations and 2) the strong winds will have the potential to lead to at least localized blowing snow from the recent snowfall. While both are notable in their own right, confidence is highest in the cold and given the significant fall from values seen Friday/Saturday, am concerned about folks being caught off guard. This is especially the case for folks making the post-holiday return travel who may not have planned for the magnitude of cold forecast. Caution is advised to those traveling Sunday both with the threat for blowing snow and colder temperatures. Temperatures will continue to fall sharply Sunday evening and many locations will threaten sub-zero lows. Factoring in the continued gusty winds, believe wind chills are likely to fall into the negative teens. Whether the reach Cold Weather Advisory criteria (-20F air or wind chill temperatures) remains more uncertain. Will need to monitor for this potential in subsequent forecasts.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 317 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

A dry weather pattern will again emerge for the end of 2025 and start of 2026 across the region. Deep troughing will settle over the Great Lakes around Monday with strong ridging building into the West Coast. Enhanced northwesterly flow will become established but overall mid-level heights will build through the first half of next week. Temperatures will respond accordingly with a return to 20s/30s Monday, and 40s/50s Tuesday and Wednesday. As a pronounced longwave trough sets up over the Hudson Bay around the middle of the week, shortwaves rotating on the backside of this feature will dive south into the upper Midwest. This should allow for a backdoor cool front will work in on Thursday. How far west this colder air makes it remains somewhat in question and explains the large NBM inner- quartile spread in daytime temperatures on Thursday. Values range from lower 30s to upper 50s so precise values elude us for now. Overall though, ensembles are in reasonable agreement painting lower 50s southwest to lower 30s northeast and this is what the NBM populated forecast produced. This potential for another cold snap appears limited in scope with smaller spreads and 25th Percentile values hovering around 5-10F above normal. Regardless, the forecast is largely dry heading into 2026 and ensembles hint at little to suggest greater precipitation potential exists until perhaps the first weekend of the New Year.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Low stratus overspreads the area overnight, bringing periods of MVFR/IFR CIGs into tomorrow morning. In addition, rain changes to snow tonight, with reductions in visibility for all terminals into tomorrow morning. Blowing snow may linger after snow has fallen, prolonging visibility reductions into tomorrow afternoon.

A strong cold front pushes through the area tonight, bringing strong northwest winds with its passage. Widespread northwesterly gusts of 35 to 45kts are expected through tomorrow afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.