textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance for thunderstorms returns to much of the area tonight into early Sunday with a few stronger storms possible in the southern Panhandle through southwest Nebraska where hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns.

- Rain and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday and lead to much cooler temperatures in the upper 70s for central Nebraska, warming to upper 80s/lower 90s west of Highway 83.

- Multiple disturbances crossing the upper ridge will allow for daily rain and thunderstorm chances for much of the upcoming week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

This afternoon, skies have largely cleared out from morning thunderstorms that departed prior to dawn to the south and east. Gradually, diurnal cumulus has begun to develop across the area but shows no vertical development so is not anticipated to be much for than a partly sunny afternoon for much of the local area. Temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to lower 80s and we should see a few more degrees added to these values through the peak of the afternoon with breezy east/southeast winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph.

Late this afternoon/tonight...shortwave ridging will begin to breakdown as a lead shortwave lifts north and east across Wyoming and into western South Dakota/Nebraska this evening. As this occurs, southeasterly upslope flow will reinforce low to middle 60s dew points reaching the Front Range. Orographic lift and mid-level height falls coinciding with peak heating will allow scattered thunderstorms to develop along the I-25 corridor even as residual capping remains in place. Though instability should wane further east, steep lapse rates aloft and and a modest low-level jet should help maintain convection further east into the evening. The late morning update from the Storm Prediction Center trimmed up the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across the local area but it still includes portions of our Panhandle and southwest Nebraska zones. Given storms are likely to be fairly disorganized and potentially weakening slightly, believe outflow winds will be the primary concern. As thunderstorms continue to move east, indications are that activity may increase in coverage again towards Highway 83 late tonight. This is likely driven by increased theta-e advection from an increasing LLJ. Instability will be relatively poor as lapse rates decrease so any threat for severe will largely be over by late this evening but greater coverage of general thunderstorms may support a greater potential for rain across the area. Accordingly, have given PoPs a boost for areas east of Highway 83 with values in the 35-45 percent range. HREF localized probability-matched mean shows spotty coverage of QPF > 1.50" with a reasonable buffer of amounts surpassing 0.25". This aligns nearly perfectly with Highway 83 through 12z (7am CDT) Sunday and generally matches the anticipated west to east progression of activity (meaning most locations east of Highway 183 may not see anything until after daybreak Sunday). With the rain and clouds, overnight lows were boosted slight with most locations holding in the low to middle 60s.

Sunday/Sunday Night...by early Sunday, the main shortwave trough will be directly overhead and shifting east-southeast through the early part of the day. The passing trough axis will likely signal the end of precipitation chances and have PoPs ending for our western zones by late morning. Further east, particularly north central Nebraska, activity may persist into the afternoon and evening as another late afternoon/evening low-level jet forms and points into south central South Dakota. Limited instability locally coincident with the expected forcing should preclude any severe threat and this aligns with the latest SPC Day 2 outlook which keeps any severe mention to our north. The daytime temperature forecast proved tricky, with large variations in statistical guidance (~10F difference between MET and MAV guidance). Utilized a blend of both to land in the middle but favored the cooler MET guidance slightly given anticipated longer dwelling rain and thunderstorms for central Nebraska. This resulted in afternoon highs ranging from the upper 70s in our north central zones to upper 80s/lower 90s for the western Sandhills/Panhandle/southwest. Similar temperatures are expected Sunday night with forecast lows in the low to middle 60s for all of the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 259 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Upper level ridging will remain in place over the southern Rockies. This will promote continued zonal to quasi-northwesterly flow aloft for the Central Plains early in the week. Eventually, the upper ridge will retrograde and allow predominant northwesterly flow to become established across the region. Multiple disturbances will drop southeast within the mid-level flow and these along with associated trailing cool front should promote near-daily rain and thunderstorm chances locally with temperatures favoring near to slightly above normal for late August. The expected proximity to a mid-level speed max will largely keep severe weather in play though day-to-day predictability will largely hinge on mesoscale features that coarser mid-range models will struggle to resolve at this timescale. While the pattern doesn't suggest widespread beneficial rainfall across the area, NBM probabilities suggest at least the potential for a few areas to see wetting rains next week. This is especially true each afternoon/evening Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday where probabilities for exceeding 0.25" rainfall climb to around 25- 35 percent. As mentioned before, this will largely come down to smaller scale features which won't be forecasted with greater confidence for a few days still.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the evening across western and north central Nebraska. Overnight, however, showers and thunderstorms are expected to track across the region, bringing lower ceilings and potential visibility restrictions in addition to gusty and erratic winds. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the morning hours, especially east of Highway 83, which may impact both KLBF and KVTN. As showers and storms continue, expect a drop to MVFR conditions. As this system leaves the area, winds increase out of the south, with gusts around 25 knots late morning and into the afternoon. Skies are expected to gradually clear as well, though some lower clouds may persist through the afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.