textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A threat for thunderstorms persist both tonight and again Sunday night across the area. The strongest storms may pose a threat for hail.

- Cloudy and cooler conditions are expected across much of the area Sunday, with highs expected to remain in the upper 60s east of HWY 83.

- A cold front will cross the area Monday into Monday night, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front, followed by a sharp cool-down for Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The cold front that pushed through the area overnight has moved into southern Kansas, leading to much cooler and drier conditions across the area versus yesterday. Temperatures have remained in the upper 60s this afternoon thus far. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have exited off to the east into south central Nebraska, with at least a brief lull in precipitation expected this afternoon.

By this evening, isolated showers and thunderstorms (currently located along the Laramie Range) may survive the trek across the Panhandle and approach the HWY 61 corridor around sunset. This should lead to little to no impact, with the only threat being a stray lightning strike or two. Any precipitation across western and southwest Nebraska is expected to quickly wane after sunset.

Overnight, scattered thunderstorm development remains possible across portions of northern Nebraska, in association with a modestly increasing southerly low level jet. That said, the best MUCAPE looks to remain off to the south of the area across south central Nebraska. Guidance has continued to trend towards lesser elevated instability overnight, and as a result confidence in any thunderstorm coverage remains low for now. Trends will be monitored, and a stronger storm or two with small hail will be possible overnight with any thunderstorms that form.

The cold front off to our south then begins to slowly move northwards into tomorrow, with strengthening east-southeast flow returning by tomorrow morning. This will bring a return of richer moisture back to western and north central Nebraska, along with increasing isentropic ascent. Low stratus looks to overspread the area early tomorrow morning, and may be slow to erode across much of the area within the broad warm advection regime. Believe this will lead to a much cooler afternoon tomorrow, especially for areas east of HWY 83. Here, highs will again struggle to leave the 60s. Where stratus can erode further west, highs are expected to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Much of the daytime hours Sunday will again be dry across the area, before thunderstorm coverage increases overnight into Monday morning in association with another LLJ. Though confidence is low for now, a favorable overlap in elevated instability and deep layer shear could lead to a threat for large hail early Monday morning across the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Monday, a closed mid-level southern-stream trough will move into the region through the day before ejecting northeastward during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of this system, warm air advection will increase as southerly to southwesterly flow becomes established in the 700-850 mb layer. Temperatures at 850 mb will warm into the 25 to 30C range, which is quite warm for this time of year. At the surface, low pressure will deepen across North Dakota, with a secondary low developing in the lee of the Rockies. This will maintain southerly flow across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Ahead of the front, deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the warm air aloft should allow temperatures to surge into the middle 80s to lower 90s. Winds will remain somewhat gusty, though minimum relative humidity values should remain above 30 percent, keeping overall fire weather concerns low. In terms of precipitation, uncertainty remains regarding how far southeast the front progresses before showers and thunderstorms develop along it. Current model guidance generally favors the greatest convective coverage just southeast of the forecast area, though some showers and thunderstorms remain possible across eastern portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening depending on the eventual position and timing of the front. The overall severe weather threat appears low at this time, though sufficient instability and deep-layer shear could support a few strong thunderstorms. Overnight lows will range from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday, the cold front will move south of the area and become nearly stationary across Kansas, leaving the forecast area firmly within the cooler air mass. Strengthening mid-level cold air advection and lingering cloud cover should hold afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A baroclinic zone will remain established along the stalled boundary, with strengthening warm air advection and isentropic ascent supporting an overrunning precipitation regime. The greatest precipitation chances should remain south of the forecast area across Kansas, though some precipitation could extend into southern portions of the area depending on the eventual position of the boundary. Tuesday night lows will range from the middle 40s north to the middle 50s south.

Wednesday through the weekend, the pattern will remain active as multiple weak disturbances move through the region while the mid- level baroclinic zone and surface boundary remain near or just south of the area. This setup will support periodic opportunities for precipitation, though the greatest chances currently appear focused from northern Kansas into southern Nebraska. The exact position of the stationary boundary will play an important role in determining how far north the more persistent precipitation can develop. By late week, model guidance continues to suggest a stronger system moving into the region. This could provide the best opportunity for more widespread precipitation during the extended period and may be accompanied by another stronger cold frontal passage. Confidence in the exact timing and evolution remains limited at this range. Highs through much of the period should remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 50s. Overall, a more fall-like pattern is expected through the long-term period, characterized by cooler temperatures and periodic rainfall chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The main aviation concern will be MVFR ceilings across southwest Nebraska including the KLBF terminal. Stratus is forecast to develop toward 12Z, with BKN015 at KLBF 13Z until 18Z. Southeast winds will also increase to near 12015G25KT after 18Z at the KLBF and KVTN terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.