textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with warmest temperatures late week into the weekend. Highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s are possible by the end of the week.

- In addition to hot and dry conditions, gusty winds may usher in a return of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns.

- Uncertainty builds into the forecast Sunday into early next week, as guidance struggles with the upper air pattern.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Today and tonight, the upper ridge center will strengthen to near 6000 meters at 500mb over southern MN by late afternoon. Despite such as strong upper ridge to our north, highs will range from 3 to 8 degrees above normal, except near 10 degrees above normal far northwest. Forecast highs will be in the low 90s, with mid 90s northern NE, with highs again in the upper 90s far northwest Sandhills. H85 temperature anomalies remain slightly below normal across Kansas and Missouri today, so when advecting northwestward into Nebraska, this is attributing to highs not being as hot as across South Dakota. Southerly winds mainly 10 to 20 mph, except 15 to 25 mph with gusts near 30 mph western Sandhills. Skies will again be sunny. Lows tonight mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the upper ridge axis will extend from Wyoming through South Dakota and northern Illinois. Highs across western NE will be nearly the same on Tuesday, in the low 90s, with mid 90s northern NE. Southerly winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph across the entire forecast area with gusts to 30 mph portions of the western Sandhills. Skies will again be sunny. Lows Tuesday night mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Little change in the long term forecast, as upper level ridging persists mid week into the weekend, bringing above average temperatures and a dry weather pattern. TEmperatures still look to be hottest late ween into the weekend, with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s across the region. With the strength of the upper level ridge and high pressure at the surface, no precipitation is expected this week, either.

As with previous forecasts, upper level flow will support the warmest temperatures aloft to flow over the Intermountain West into the Dakotas, mostly remaining just to the west and north of the region. However, portions of the forecast region, most notably northern Nebraska will be on the fringes of this warm core aloft, supporting warmer surface temperatures. Wednesday looks to remain very similar to Tuesday, with highs mostly in the 90s across the region, with upper 90s across northern Nebraska. In fact, highs on Wednesday remain right around the 75th percentile across the region compared to local climatology, so while warmer than usual, not unheard of for mid July. By late week, warmer temperatures aloft will support hotter conditions across most of the region.

As just mentioned above, warmer temperatures aloft are expected Thursday into the weekend, supporting hotter conditions across most of the region. In fact, Thursday through the weekend, forecast highs climb up to around the 90th percentile compared to local climatology, but remain well below record highs. Ensemble guidance still shows a sizable disagreement, with the European ensembles remaining much cooler than the GEFS. While the European has shown some slight warming trends, the ensembles still show a lower probability of most of the region breaking into the 90s, which seems highly unlikely given recent conditions, the strength of the ridge, and the fact that our usual highs are in the lower 90s for mid July. So, still favoring the GEFS solutions for temperatures, which highlight most of the area in a greater than 80 percent chance of being in the 90s late week into the weekend. In line with GEFS guidance, the best chances for anywhere in the forecast region to break 100 remains portions of northern into north central Nebraska, where warmer temperatures aloft are expected. Aiding the potential to break 100, overnight lows late week, especially east of Highway 83, may only cool into the lower 70s. With the warmer overnight lows and hotter conditions throughout the day, still believe that the best chances of seeing any heat headlines this week would favor late week into the weekend and mostly be located across north central Nebraska.

Along with above average temperatures and no precipitation, strong mixing is expected each day across the region, allowing stronger upper level winds to mix to the surface. Wednesday appears to have greatest potential for southerly gusts of 40 to 45 mph, especially across the Sandhills and Panhandle. However, Thursday and Friday also show potential for some gusty conditions, with peak gusts currently expected around 30 to 35 mph, with the strongest gusts remaining across the Sandhills into the Panhandle. However, still believe more widespread gusts of 20 to 25 mph will be possible each afternoon, remaining through the weekend. As stronger wind gusts are expected each day on top of already hot and dry conditions, there will be growing fire weather concerns this week, with greatest concern across the Sandhills into the Panhandle. While confidence in reaching critical criteria is low, confidence is medium-high to high in reaching elevated to near critical conditions, especially given the expected wind gusts.

The forecast becomes a little more uncertain Sunday into early next week, as guidance brings differing solutions on how the upper level pattern evolves with a trough moving across the northern Plains. While the GFS solution favors a strengthening ridge, the ECMWF solution favors a ridge breakdown for a day or two, before reamplifying. This is also well reflected in cluster analysis, as solutions weighted towards the GEFS and Canadian ensembles keep the ridge in place, while the European weighted solutions break the ridge down. This throws some uncertainty in the weather pattern Sunday into early next week, as the pattern could either favor remaining warm and dry or potentially cool for a day or two. Will need to continue to monitor the forecast trends this week to see if guidance comes into a better consensus on how to handle this trough and ridge pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. Southerly winds are expected across most of the region today, with gusts developing by mid morning. Strongest gusts are expected to remain over the Sandhills into the Panhandle, with peaks just under 30 knots. Elsewhere, gusts around 20 knots are expected through the afternoon, with gusts subsiding by evening. Through the evening and overnight, winds remain near steady out of the south and southeast. Will again be tracking a potential low level jet developing over western Nebraska tonight, which may introduce LLWS concerns again. Confidence in placement is low at this time, so will omit for now.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.