textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Light winds and near to slightly below temperatures are expected today. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s expected.

- Fire weather concerns increase across far western Nebraska into the Panhandle Sunday. This is due to a combination of gusty south winds and low humidity.

- Hot temperatures will continue Monday in advance of an approaching cold front. Readings may reach 100 degrees in SW Nebraska.

- A cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area Monday night with a continued threat for precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday.

_ Much cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s to middle 80s. A gradual warmup will push highs into the 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Upper level ridging begins to expand north and eastward from the desert southwest today. Meanwhile, at the surface, the center of the high pressure will shift eastward into eastern South Dakota by this evening. Winds shift around to the southeast across western Nebraska by afternoon on the backside of the high. Winds are on the light side and this should limit any fire weather concerns. Humidity does get quite low, in the 19-24% range west of Highway 2 by this afternoon, but as mentioned winds should remain light side.

As a southerly low-level jet increases tonight, south winds begin to increase, and some of this wind mixes to the surface. This mostly occurs in the higher elevations across northwest Nebraska and the western Sandhills, where gusts of 25 mph or so develop by midnight and then continue.

On Sunday the surface high translates eastward toward the Mississippi Valley region. Meanwhile surface low pressure will deepen across Wyoming ahead of a long wave trough nosing into the northern Rockies. This will set the stage for gusty south winds, especially along and west of Highway 183. These winds will combine with humidity values of 15-18% to the west of Highway 2. Even with the recent rainfall, fuels are there due to the overall drought conditions. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch for for areas mainly along and west of Highway 2 due to the wind and low humidity.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A decent low level jet will develop Sunday night across the western 2/3rds of the forecast area. Based on Bufkit forecast soundings, mixing will continue well into the late evening hours Sunday. This will lead to a slow cooldown Sunday evening and prolong fire weather concerns across the western half of the forecast area. More about that in the fire weather section below. With winds not expected to totally decouple Sunday night, low temperatures will be very mild across the forecast area with readings in the middle 60s to around 70. A cold front will begin to approach northwestern Nebraska midday drifting slowly east and southeast Monday afternoon. There are some minor differences in frontal location at 21z Monday with the GFS having this feature oriented along a line from around Oshkosh to Valentine. The NAM is fairly close with this feature placing the front along a line from Chappell to Springview. Highs south of the front will reach the middle to upper 90s with lower 90s forecast north of the front. There will be a minor threat for showers and thunderstorms along the front Monday afternoon/early evening. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive behind the front Monday night into Tuesday morning in advance of a decent mid level shortwave. The latest NBM probablistic forecast has a 40 to 70% chance of 12 hr QPF > 0.01 inches across the FA ending at 12z Tuesday. When the QPF threshold is raised to 0.10", percentages of exceedance fall off to 40 percent over northern Nebraska. Going forward 12 hours, ending at 00z Wednesday, there is a 60 percent chance of exceeding 0.10" over northern Nebraska with dry conditions over southwestern into the western Sandhills. That being said, the highest pops will be placed over northern portions of the forecast area with lower pops further south and west for the remainder of the FA. The threat for precipitation will carry over into Wednesday as a second upper level trough approaches the western Dakotas and the panhandle early Wednesday morning. This feature will track across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours bringing another threat for precipitation, mainly over the northern half of the forecast area. With the expected threat for precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will struggle to get out of the 70s over the northern half of the forecast area. Further south, readings may make it into the lower 80s. Broad zonal flow aloft will develop across the central and northern plains toward the end of next week. Readings will rebound back into the 80s and lower 90s with a limited threat for precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected under clear skies across all of western and north central Nebraska through the Saturday. Winds will be light, generally less than 10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Gusty southerly winds will develop Sunday across the forecast area, generally east of a deepening surface trough of low pressure over the western Panhandle and eastern Wyoming. The latest NBM has a near 100 percent chance of 25+ MPH wind gusts north of Interstate 80 Sunday afternoon. There is even a threat for 35 MPH wind gusts in the western Sandhills and eastern Panhandle Sunday afternoon. With expected highs in the upper 90s to around 100 in the western Sandhills and eastern Panhandle and minimum RH of 15 to 25 percent forecast, decided to hoist a fire weather watch for Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Will carry this over into late evening Sunday as winds are not expected to decrease until after sunset. Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon, mainly over zone 204. Minimum RH Monday afternoon will bottom out at 20 to 30 percent west of a line from Eustis, to North Platte, to Merriman. There is a good probability of wind gusts exceeding 25 MPH Monday afternoon, generally west of highway 83.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NEZ204.