textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather concerns continue with a Red Flag Warning through early evening Sunday and a Fire Weather Watch remaining in effect for Monday.

- A passing disturbance Tuesday into Wednesday will bring rain and thunderstorms to the area including a 20-30% for wetting precipitation for portions of western Nebraska.

- The next disturbance appears set to approach the area Friday into Saturday with cooler temperatures and more precipitation chances including the threat for snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This afternoon, west central Nebraska resides between stronger upper- level jet to the east and an approaching trough from the west. This has led to a part in the clouds, leaving sunny skies across much of the local area. Temperature readings as of 130pm CDT (1830z) ranged from 70s to lower 80s with general westerly winds gusting around 20- 30 mph. The warmth, dry downsloping air, and gusty winds have promoted critical fire weather conditions with Red Flag Warnings remaining in effect until early this evening for much of western Nebraska. Details pertaining to fire weather concerns can be found below in the Fire Weather section.

Tonight...winds should subside fairly quickly this evening as the boundary layer decouples with lack of any LLJ and resultant stronger low-level momentum continuing through the overnight. This should support a cooler night in general across western Nebraska with light downsloping flow. Statistical guidance generally favored upper 30s to lower 40s for much of the area outside of the Highway 281 corridor which may hold closer to 50F. Overall believe this is reasonable with the expected influx of higher level clouds helping prevent a true radiational cooling night. Previous forecasts included a Slight Chance (< 25%) mention of showers in our far west. Opted to remove this mention as HREF probabilities for measurable moisture was essentially nil. Additionally, forecast soundings show any saturated layer above 10kft AGL with abundant dry air averaging ~15-20% in the 0-3km layer to overcome. While some lapse rates will be in place across the mid-levels, this layer is fairly shallow is does not appear conducive for any mention of dry lightning.

Monday/Monday Night...another very warm day is on tap for much of Nebraska. Height falls will overspread the area by the first half of the day as longwave troughing digs into the Desert Southwest by midday. General southwesterly flow aloft will persist into the afternoon. Stronger flow crossing the Rockies will promote lee troughing and continued westerly downsloping flow early in the day. Eventually, a surface low will take shape over eastern Wyoming and track towards the mid-Missouri Valley. This will draw a subtle dryline feature into the Sandhills through southwest Nebraska through the morning, shunting richer moisture within the southerly flow to the eastern part of the state. The result will be upper 70s west to middle 80s east for afternoon highs with gusty west winds around 25 to 35 mph. Wind profiles appear similar to those seen Sunday, adding confidence to expected magnitudes across portions of the Sandhills. A weak frontal boundary will settle south out of South Dakota in the late evening. This will allow for a wind flip to the north. Forcing will remain weak within a dry profile thus no precipitation is expected. The lack of more significant cold air advection behind this boundary will also preclude greater wind gust threat.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Tuesday into Wednesday...more persistent troughing will settle into the intermountain west by early Tuesday with height falls beginning to overspread much of the Front Range/High Plains through the day. Increasing ascent will lead to a secondary area of low pressure to form over western Kansas. This will draw the late Monday frontal boundary further south and west, leading to a baroclinic zone setting up across western Nebraska. Afternoon highs will range from the middle 60s near the Pine Ridge to lower 80s in the far southeast. Strong convergence along the tightening frontal zone and invof of the ejecting h5/h7 low will lead to increasing precipitation potential. This will largely favor the cooler, more stable side of the boundary thus limiting the concern for severe but modest MUCAPE of 250-750 j/kg should support showers and weak convection. Strong lift, reasonable moisture quality as precipitable water (PWATs) nears 125% of normal, and some convective enhancement should lead to reasonable QPF. NBM probabilities have shown a slight increase, with 30-50% and 20-30% potential for exceeding 0.10" and 0.25" respectively across the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. EPS/GEFS median outputs still show fairly large discrepancies but overall reasonably good agreement in placement and timing with the EPS being more bullish. Likewise, specific QPF probabilities are higher from the EPS which suggests even 20-30% for exceeding a half inch. This is in-line with NAM/ECMWF raw output suggesting medium confidence. Folks should continue to monitor later forecasts for more precise thinking. Inherited PoPs linger fairly long into Wednesday and believe these will need trimmed up with later forecasts as ensemble and deterministic support for daytime precipitation on Wednesday continues to decrease. Temperatures as a result should increase with later forecasts. Currently, afternoon highs reach the upper 60s to middle 70s but these values lie on the lower end of the forecast envelope so increases are probable in the coming days.

Thursday and beyond...the trough axis should clear the area west to east by late Wednesday, with height rises likely heading into Thursday. Shortwave ridging will develop across the Central and Southern Plains and will boost highs considerably. Values will return to the upper 70s to middle 80s across the area but again, these undercut the NBM inner-quartile values so further increases in the coming days appear possible. Any "heat wave" will be short lived as the next trough arrives from the northwest by late week. Timing and placement from mid-range models is good, with the associated trough axis arriving into western Nebraska by late Friday. Precipitation potential returns behind a progressive cold front on Friday. An influx of cooler air should lead to a rain to rain/snow if not all snow by Saturday morning. Confidence in snow accumulations remains low with NBM suggesting only 50-70% of seeing > 0.1" in our western zones. Antecedent warm temperatures and mild temperatures during the day both Friday and Saturday will hamper any threat for more significant wintry impacts. For now, will highlight the potential for minor accumulations largely on elevated/grassy surfaces and expected to melt away during the day on Saturday. Another warmup appears likely early next week as shortwave ridging builds in and extended NBM guidance shows a consistent climb from Sunday through the middle of next week in 25-75th Max temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through Monday. Other than some scattered mid and high level cloudiness, skies will be clear. Winds will become light from the southeast tonight. Surface winds shift to the west-northwest at 10-20 kts Monday. Gusts over 30 kts are expected across the Sandhills and portions of north central Nebraska.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Red Flag Warning continues until 8pm CDT Sunday evening for Zones 204, 206, 208, and 209.

Fire Weather Watch in effect Noon to 10pm CDT Monday for Zones 204, 206, and 208.

Sunday Night...Winds should wane quickly this evening as upper-level speed max departs to the east and new low pressure forms to the west. This will allow for a flip to the south and eventually the southeast for central Nebraska. Though wind speeds may decline for a few hours, a modest increase is again possible late tonight into early Monday though speeds should remain at or below 15 mph. Humidity recovery should again be limited as surface low draws dry air off the higher terrain and into western Nebraska. The exception to this will be central and easterly Nebraska where more moderate southerly flow advects richer Gulf air that may graze central Nebraska. Even at it's most favorable outlook, any location that exceeds 70% max relative humidity tonight (Highway 183 corridor and east) would likely be brief in nature, on the order of 2-4 hours, with more persist/greater recovery values east of Highway 281.

Monday...surface low will track east along and just south of I-90. This will drag a surface trough/dryline east across the Panhandle to near the Highway 183 corridor by daybreak Monday. Westerly winds will increase quickly again by late morning with gusts nearing 30-35 mph. Warmer temperatures off the surface with stronger mixing from invading dry air will promote another very warm day with similarly low afternoon humidity readings. Peak wind gusts may be confined more to the Sandhills thus a smaller watch is in effect compared to the warning from Sunday. Will need to evaluate the wind potential closely in later forecasts as humidity will certainly not be lacking. Cloud cover may be of greater impact on Monday but clearing should occur during the afternoon leaving any impacts to be fairly brief and early in the day. As a secondary area of low pressure forms over northwest Kansas, a cool front will be drawn south and arrive into western Nebraska late Monday into early Tuesday. Winds do not appear likely to see an appreciable jump behind the front as the lack of colder air and thus cold air advection hinders wind potential. With the incoming airmass of Pacific origin, humidity is expected to increase quickly behind the front before being washed out after daybreak on Tuesday.

Precipitation outlook...increasing rain and even some thunderstorm potential arrives Tuesday. Confidence in precise QPF is medium at best, but signals continue to indicate at least the potential for spotty wetting rains. Favored areas would be the southern Sandhills through central Nebraska where a narrow stripe of 0.25"+ appears possible (20-30% NBM probabilities). Any shift in this narrow stripe could lead to fairly large variations in forecast rainfall so folks are advised to monitor later forecasts for up-to-date thinking.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NEZ204-206-208.