textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence rain showers through early afternoon.

- Low to moderate confidence in the potential for more organized, severe thunderstorms this evening.

- High confidence in rainfall over a half inch through Monday morning across areas mainly north of Highway 2.

- Additional precipitation is possible both Tuesday and again Wednesday into Thursday, with the greatest potential for accumulations across western and southwest Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Isolated showers have begun to push into the western region tonight and will become more scattered toward sunrise. Overnight, temperatures will drop to near or below freezing across northwest Nebraska, which may result in some rain/snow mix or even all snow. Any accumulations are expected to be minimal and confined mostly to the higher terrain of the Pine Ridge. As temperatures rise above freezing region wide after sunrise, any frozen precipitation will change back over to all liquid.

Throughout today, showers will become more widespread impacting much of the region. Some embedded thunderstorms will also be possible by late morning and early afternoon, but with minimal instability, not expecting these initial thunderstorms to be severe. The main threats will be lightning and heavier rainfall.

By early to mid afternoon, showers will move off to the north and east giving way to a drier period of a few hours. By early evening, a return to some thunderstorms are anticipated, with some of these storms having the potential to be strong to briefly severe. The majority of the instability to support severe storms is expected to remain to the south across Kansas. However, some decent support will nudge into portions of south and north central Nebraska. While not expecting widespread severe storms, cannot rule out a severe storm or two entirely. Best potential for any severe storms will generally be southeast of a Imperial to North Platte to O'Neill line, but some stronger storms could develop as far north as the central Sandhills and into the Valentine area. Uncertainty still exists regarding development, timing, and strength of these storms, though. A lot will depend of if we can get some decent clearing behind the initial showers this morning. The longer we can stay dry and even get some breaks in the clouds, the more unstable the environment will become and therefore increase the potential for severe thunderstorms later in the day.

Regardless if severe convection can develop or not, fairly decent rainfall is expected through Monday morning. While the latest guidance has decreased QPF slightly, confidence remains high that many locations will see at least a quarter inch (0.25) of QPF, with some locations across northern and extreme north central Nebraska seeing up to an inch. Even these lower amounts from the previous forecast will be a welcome relief for much of the region that has been dealing with little to no precipitation for the last few weeks.

Active weather continues into Monday as lingering showers are expected through early Monday afternoon across northern Nebraska. Conditions begin to dry out slightly south of Highway 2, but this will be short lived as the next round of precipitation returns Monday night. This disturbance appears to be weaker and less organized than tonight's and therefore, limited QPF will be associated with it. Looking at possibly a tenth or two (0.1 to 0.2) across southwest Nebraska and the eastern Panhandle through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

By early Tuesday morning, another trough will quickly follow behind the Sunday/Monday system, ejecting out of the Rockies by sunrise. As the H7 trough axis ejects across the area Tuesday morning into the afternoon, increasing mid-level FGEN should promote at least scattered precipitation moving west to east. Forecast soundings suggest a threat for a mixed p-type of rain and snow at least initially, given cooler temperatures in place Tuesday morning. Precipitation should quickly transition to rain by early Tuesday afternoon, as temperatures climb above freezing and into the 40s to 50s. The low quickly pulls away from the area by Tuesday evening, with precipitation ending from west to east. Accumulations look to be favored across western Nebraska at this time, with NBM probabilities of >0.25" Tuesday peaking at ~40-50% west of HWY 83.

Northwest flow then establishes aloft into midweek, with at least scattered precipitation chances continuing through Thursday. With the track of the responsible upper low remaining well off to the west and southwest of the area Wednesday into Thursday, guidance continues to come into better agreement with just a glancing blow of precipitation. NBM probabilities support this notion, with probabilities of even >0.10" of ~40-60% remaining confined along and south of I-80 Wednesday into Thursday. This persistent northwest flow regime will keep temperatures below average for middle to late week, with daily highs remaining in the 50s to 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Widespread stratus will persist through Sunday night for all terminals, with IFR/LIFR CIGs expected. Showers and thunderstorms will also move through the area both Sunday morning/afternoon and again after sunset. This precipitation will lead to periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities.

Winds become east-southeast Sunday morning, strengthening to 10 to 15kts Sunday afternoon. Winds weaken after sunset Sunday, becoming light from the north overnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.