textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- The precipitation forecast beyond Thursday is low confidence given the expected upper level pattern and model run to run inconsistencies. However, the best chances for rainfall appear to be on Saturday night. There will be a continued chance for precipitation during the late afternoon and evening hours Sunday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures will be seasonal Thursday through Wednesday with daily highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored to the north of the Bahamas. North of the high, closed lows were noted over northern portions of Hudson Bay and over eastern portions of Quebec. Further west, a high amplitude, blocking ridge was present from northern Missouri, north-northwe4st into the Dakotas, then north into northeastern Saskatchewan and northwestern Manitoba. Further west, a decent shortwave trough was present over far northeastern New Mexico. This feature was a portion of a closed low located south of of Lake Tahoe. At the surface this afternoon, weak high pressure, located over Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa, las led to easterly and southeasterly winds across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon. Further south, a broad shield of precipitation, in association with a shortwave over northeastern New Mexico, extended from northwestern Oklahoma, west-northwest into southwestern and west central Kansas into eastern Colorado. More isolated showers were present from northwestern Kansas into east central Colorado. Skies this afternoon were partly to mostly cloudy in southwestern and western Nebraska, while cloud cover was clear to mostly clear in north central and portions of central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT, ranged from 79 degrees at Imperial, to 87 degrees at Valentine.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

The upper level shortwave over northeastern New Mexico, will slowly lift north tonight into eastern Colorado. As this feature migrates north, a broad shield of precipitation will lift north across western Kansas, impacting far southwestern portions of the forecast area late evening. As this feature migrates further north overnight, the threat for precipitation will spread north from southwestern into west central portions of the forecast area Thursday morning. How far north the band of precipitation reaches Thursday remains uncertain. The deterministic solns including the NAM12 and 12z HRRR solns do drive some isolated showers north into west central and even northwestern Nebraska Thursday. However, looking at the ensemble forecast, there is a sharp cutoff in precipitation probabilities greater than 0.01 inches. The latest NBM ensemble forecast has a 50% chance of 0.01" precipitation exceedance generally south of a line from Alliance to Broken Bow Thursday. This exceedance probability hits 70% generally along and south of I-80. When the QPF threshold is raised to 0.10" probabilities of exceedance fall off sharply and are limited to 20 to 50% south of I-80. That being said, precipitation chances are highest in the southwest (30-50%) with pops generally slight chance or less north of I-80. After collaboration with my northern neighbors, decided to extend slight chance pops to northwestern portions of the forecast area if the deterministic NAM12 and 12z HRRR does happen to verify. The shortwave, will transition east from Colorado into Kansas and Nebraska on Thursday. This will gradually shift the best lift and precipitation chances east Thursday. By Thursday evening the latest GFS and NAM12 solns develop a nice corridor of showers and thunderstorms from south central into portions of north central and eastern Nebraska with the 12z HRRR not as indicative of precipitation. The NBM forecast generally initialized with lower pops and made some changes mainly to extend pops further north into eastern and northeastern portions of the forecast area Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Upper level low pressure, anchored over California and Nevada, will finally begin to eject to the east-northeast Friday. By 00z Saturday this feature is located in Utah per the latest deterministic GFS, NAM12 and EC solns. Down stream of this low, surface low pressure will begin to deepen over eastern Colorado Friday afternoon. Along the low, a dryline boundary will extend from southeastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas per the 12z NAM12. The GFS has this boundary further east into Kansas. As a lead shortwave ejects from the main low late Friday, showers and thunderstorms develop INVOF this boundary. The main focus of convection Friday night with the GFS is over Kansas with the NAM12 soln developing convection along the Cheyenne Ridge. PWATs Friday night are on the order 1.00 to 1.25" which is above the 100% ire for this time of year. Deep layer shear across western and north central Nebraska Friday night remains relatively weak<20KTS so the severe threat is fairly limited ATTM. However, wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated locally heavy rainfall given the high PWATS and weak mid level steering winds.

On Saturday the upper level low will track from Utah into northern Wyoming. Once again, by afternoon, a dryline will become established from northwestern Nebraska into NW Kansas. With surface heating and a weakening afternoon cap, convection should develop INVOF the dryline Saturday afternoon. Both the GFS and NAM12 solns develop convection along this feature in the Nebraska Panhandle Saturday afternoon. As this activity moves east, decent deep layer shear 30- 40 KTS could lead to strong and potentially severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Currently, we are not outlooked for severe storms Saturday in the latest Swed, however, wouldn't be surprised if some portion of the western and northern forecast area is placed in the new Swed outlook released tonight.

The upper level low and trough will track north from Wyoming into southwestern Canada Sunday into Monday. Broad southwesterly flow aloft will persist from Sunday through Tuesday across the area. This will lead to a threat for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The upper level trough will transition east across southern Canada Wednesday leading to more zonal flow across the central plains. With prevalent low level moisture in place and mid level forcing, thunderstorm chances seem plausible Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska tonight and through most of the afternoon. However, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late morning into the afternoon across southwest Nebraska. This may introduce some brief MVFR ceilings, and potential visibility reductions in heavier rain showers. Will keep TAFs VFR for now, but may see some refinement with follow on forecasts. By the evening, lower ceilings track across the region, bringing low end VFR across northern Nebraska and IFR conditions across southwest Nebraska.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.