textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence in some isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening with a heavy rain and flooding potential.

- Moderate confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again Saturday night with a marginal severe risk and continued heavy rain concerns.

- The unsettled pattern continues into early next week, with near daily threats for showers and thunderstorms continuing across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently expected to develop across Kansas and push northward into Nebraska through the early morning hours. While the best instability exists to our south and east, some weak instability is present over southwest and into central Nebraska which should provide a favorable environment to sustain at least a few stronger to briefly severe storms. Some hail as well as damaging wind gusts will be possible, although heavy rainfall will likely be the main concern with this activity. At this time, not anticipating widespread flooding, but some area creeks and streams could see rises leading to some localized minor flooding, especially in ditches and low lying areas across areas that have seen some heavy rain the past few days.

Lingering showers will likely continue through Friday morning mainly east of US-183. The next round of thunderstorms arrive Friday evening, after 6pm CT. Thunderstorms will develop across the Panhandle before pushing eastward into the overnight hours. Models are inconsistent in placement and development of these storms and therefore confidence is on the lower end. Regardless modest instability will be present across the region which should support at least some stronger storms, but also a few severe storms. Hail will be a threat initially, but as the low level jet intensifies overnight, the potential for damaging winds as well as heavy rainfall will increase. Again, some localized flooding may be possible especially in urban areas as well as some of the locations that have seen significant QPF over the last several days. However, a lot will depend on the speed of the storm track and whether rainfall can accumulate in one area to add to a flooding concern.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Saturday, with a mostly dry forecast throughout the day and isolated thunderstorm chances returning by the afternoon and into the evening as peak heating occurs and instability hits a maximum. Ample instability will exist across southwest and into central Nebraska which should support at least a few severe storms across the region. As with previous days, hail and strong winds will be the primary threats with these storms. Storms will persist through the overnight hours before diminishing by sunrise Saturday morning.

As far as temperatures go, highs will remain below normals through the early weekend ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s both today and Saturday. Overnight lows will remain near normals, dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s through Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The active pattern looks to continue as we head into Sunday and early next week, within strong and persistent west-northwest flow aloft. Guidance suggests more than a few shortwaves will progress through the mean flow aloft, with a near daily threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area. That said, the transition from southwesterly to west-northwest flow aloft, the area loses it monsoonal moisture tap. This leads to PWATs falling below the highly anomalous levels seen much of the past few days. Still, with strong flow aloft and adequate instability, some threat for strong to severe storms will likely continue into early next week as well.

Temperatures look to remain near to below average each day for Sunday and into next week, with daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The exception to this looks to be Tuesday at this time, with strong warm advection ahead of an approaching frontal boundary boosts highs into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Regardless, the upcoming week looks to continue to be a reprieve from the hot conditions we saw earlier this week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect some clearing in sky cover this afternoon with scattered clouds around 20000 FT AGL. Clouds will then increase later this evening with overcast skies around 10000 FT AGL. There is also a threat for thunderstorms at the terminal with the greatest threat from 04z to 10z Saturday. For now, will handle this with a prob30 group. Toward daybreak Saturday, there is a threat for patchy fog with visibilities as low as 3SM from 12z to 15z Saturday. Skies will then scatter out by late morning. For the KVTN terminal: Skies will gradually clear out this afternoon with scattered ceilings around 6000 FT AGL. Overnight skies will cloud over with broken to overcast ceilings around 4000 FT AGL. Expect broken coverage to persist at the terminal through 18z Saturday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.