textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday through Monday with the highest threats Thursday and Saturday.

- Temperatures will be well above normal Thursday through Monday with daily highs generally 15 to 20 degrees above normal.

- Cooler Tuesday and Wednesday with a threat for precipitation.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

H5 analysis from this morning had a closed low over southern Quebec. West of this feature, a SW to NE oriented trough of low pressure extended from around Chicago to western Oklahoma. West of this feature, a rex block was noted over the western CONUS and off the west coast of Mexico. High pressure was present near Reno Nevada with a ridge extending north of the high into central portions of British Columbia and Alberta. South of the high, low pressure was noted approximately 400 miles off the coast of central Baja California. At the surface this afternoon, a stationary front extended across the eastern quarter of the forecast area. East of the front, skies were mostly cloudy and temperatures were in the lower 30s. West of the front, readings were generally in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Winds were generally from the north-northwest or northwest across western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2 PM CT ranged from 31 degrees at O'Neill to 51 degrees at Ogallala.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure aloft will migrate from northern Nevada into northern Utah overnight, forcing the upper level ridge axis east into the western Rockies. This will allow warmer air to push into the high plains on Thursday. Lows tonight will be fairly mild with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Warm boundary layer air will transition east from the Panhandle Thursday with afternoon H85 temps reaching around 7C in the east to around 11C in the west and far southwest. Bufkit soundings indicate decent mixing potential Thursday afternoon, when combined with advertised H85 temps and full sun, should yield highs in the 60s across the forecast area. Once again this morning, the NBM initialized with middle 60s for highs for LBF. This was roughly around the 10th%ile of the NBM ensemble this morning. Utilizing the 50th percentile added around 3 to 4 degrees to highs across the board Thursday afternoon. This brought highs more in line with the statistical MET and MAV guidance and better reflects forecast H85 temps for Thursday afternoon. That being said, we could see possible record high temperatures for North Platte and Broken Bow Thursday afternoon. These records are highlighted in the climate section below. As for fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon, forecast minimum RH Thursday afternoon bottoms out between 22 and 25 percent across far southwestern Nebraska and portions of the eastern Panhandle. Wind gusts Thursday afternoon may briefly touch 20 to 25 MPH during peak heating. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon and will highlight this in the FWF and HWO. An arctic trough will slide south across Hudson Bay Thursday night. This will force an arctic cold front into the upper midwest and Great Lakes. The leading edge of this arctic air will begin to impact northeastern Nebraska Friday. In advance of this front, lows Thursday night will be mild once again with readings in the upper 20s to around 30.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Arctic air will nose into the forecast area Friday with forecast H85 temps around 5C to 7C cooler than Thursday afternoon's forecast. The NBM forecast for highs Friday was around the 25th percentile of the NBM ensembles. This forecast was more in line with the MET and MAV guidance, so no changes planned for highs attm. Shifting into the weekend, the cold air in association with the eastern CONUS trough will be forced east by ridging across the western CONUS. Very warm air will push into western and north central Nebraska with H85 temps reaching in the high single digits to lower teensC. The current NBM forecast continues to be on the low end of the NBM ensemble forecast Saturday/Sunday and Monday of lower to middle 60s may be on the cool side. Wouldn't be surprised if we see some 70 degree readings on those days across the area given what the 50%ile temps are in the latest NBM ensembles. Warmer readings will come to an end Monday with cooler temps on tap Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridging across the west will de-amplify Monday with a decent cold front expected Monday night across the area. Precipitation chances are increasing as well with the latest NBM forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday and this seems plausible given the lower amplitude flow and mid level forcing located over the central Rockies into the northern Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A broad stratus deck, extending from around KVTN to KTIF, will slowly track east and dissipate this afternoon. In the meantime, expect scattered to broken ceilings ranging from 1000 to 1500 FT AGL in these areas. Expect clearing late this afternoon with a few to scattered high clouds possible tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will be light at 10 KTS or less this afternoon and tonight with northwesterly winds increasing to 10 to 20 KTS Thursday morning. Some low level wind shear will be possible at the KLBF and KVTN terminals overnight tonight into Thursday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 313 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Near record highs are possible Thursday afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. Forecast highs and record high temperatures for Thursday are below.

...........Forecast High.....Record High................

North Platte....68 degrees...69 degrees(1904) Broken Bow......66 degrees...66 degrees(2009)

Valentine.......64 degrees...68 degrees(1963)

Imperial........69 degrees...74 degrees(1904)

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.