textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday evening, and any storms that form will pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds.

- A low confidence but high impact severe weather scenario is expected to develop Saturday, with a threat for damaging winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes.

- High confidence in continued near-daily thunderstorm chances, although the severe potential is uncertain.

- Moderate confidence in continued heavy rain through much of next week, potentially leading to flooding concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 401 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Surface low pressure will begin to deepen across northeast Colorado through this morning, bringing a return of southerly flow. A modest southerly LLJ remains in place as well, and could lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development for areas primarily east of HWY 83. This activity is not expected to bring any impacts, and only light accumulations (<0.10") would again be expected.

The strengthening southerly flow also brings a return of richer surface dewpoints across southwest and central Nebraska, into the middle 50s to low 60s. By late afternoon, a weak surface cold front will move into the Sandhills, bisecting the area from southwest to northeast by late evening. Guidance continues to suggest little to no convective initiation, largely owing to weak surface convergence and modest height rises aloft by this evening. That said, forecast soundings suggest CIN largely erodes across portions of southwest into central Nebraska by late afternoon, and casts uncertainty on a completely dry forecast. East-southeasterly low level flow beneath strengthening northwest flow aloft promotes straight and increasingly long hodographs across southwest and central Nebraska Friday evening, and look to be supportive of large hail. The upslope component of low level flow might also be just enough of a boost in ascent to get widely isolated convection across portions of the area. Should storms form, a threat for severe weather appears probable. Believe the current SPC marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk across southwest/central Nebraska covers this threat well.

Attention then turns to the potential for significant severe weather across the area on Saturday. By Saturday morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across portions of the Sandhills and northern Nebraska. This is aided by a broad southeasterly and upslope LLJ, which is expected to gradually weaken into the early afternoon hours. The morning convection does cast some uncertainty on the progression and placement of a surface warm front, progged to lift north into the area through the afternoon hours Saturday. Trends in the placement of this boundary will need to be monitored closely, as the guidance consensus suggests a volatile environment will be in place in the vicinity of the warm front. As of now, expect this boundary to be somewhere near the HWY 6 to I-80 corridor, though confidence in this is low for now. Regardless, wherever the warm front reaches by Saturday afternoon will likely mark the corridor of significant severe weather.

Guidance largely suggests two regimes of CI Saturday, with the first being along the high terrain amid a broad east-southeast upslope regime across eastern Colorado/southeastern Wyoming. This regime with time would likely present a damaging wind risk across the area, as upscale growth gradually occurs as storms encounter richer boundary layer moisture as they move into western/southwest Nebraska. The second would be near and ahead of a surface trough/warm front intersection, somewhere across southwest and potentially central Nebraska. These storms would likely quickly become supercellular, with effective bulk shear on the order of 50- 55kts. Large to very large hail (>2.75") would be a threat with any sustained supercells, with increasingly long hodographs with height. Mid-level storm relative wind vectors remain oriented WSW in forecast soundings, and could limit updraft seeding/boost large hail production within the northwest to southeast oriented warm frontal zone. Of particular concern, guidance shows large clockwise looping hodographs in the lowest few kilometers in the vicinity of the surface warm front, with an expected narrow corridor of significant SRH. Should storms remain at least semi-discrete and interact favorably with the warm front, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out Saturday evening. Mesoscale details will need to be resolved with respect to frontal placement, and will likely remain unclear until potentially during the day Saturday.

A threat for localized flash flooding may also develop, especially if upscale growth occurs through late Saturday evening and Saturday night. The background environment will be very supportive of efficient rainfall, with PWATs approaching the 99th percentile climo by Saturday evening. The limiting factor will be the progressive nature of storms combined with the antecedent very dry conditions, so training will likely be needed if any flash flooding is realized. It appears the area of greatest threat for this would be across southwest into central Nebraska, where recent high-res solutions paint locally as high as 2-4" of QPF. This will continue to be monitored closely, though it appears portions of the drought impacted area locally will finally see beneficial moisture this weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 401 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Active weather will continue through much of the extended period as series of disturbances impact the region through the middle of next week. Near-daily thunderstorm chances will be possible through Thursday evening as upper level troughs continue to slide across Nebraska. At this time, not expecting severe thunderstorms, but some small hail and briefly stronger winds will be possible with these storms. In addition, continued heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding concerns across north central Nebraska. While QPF amounts don't quite extend into next week yet, some of the longer range models suggest nearly another 1 to 2 inches (potentially higher) on top of what was already received through Saturday night. In support, the latest EFI and SoT graphics show some indication of a high likelihood of extreme, potentially record-breaking, high QPF amounts occurring on Sunday through Tuesday leading to a higher confidence that these greater rainfall amounts are going to occur. Overall, the heaviest rainfall will be under the strongest storms and therefore it is difficult to locate exact locations. However, rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch will be possible in some of the stronger storms leading to localized flooding concerns on area roadways, low lying areas, and small streams especially across areas that already saw a couple inches of rainfall Saturday and Saturday night. We will continue to monitor this event and heavy rain potential over the next few days and models get a better handle on the environment.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 646 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Some isolated showers are currently falling across north central Nebraska this morning, but should remain out of both terminals keeping impacts to a minimum. Showers will wane over the next few hours with VFR conditions persisting through the evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop late Friday evening across central Nebraska and into southwest Nebraska (mainly south of I-80). Some impacts to KLBF may be possible, but confidence remains too low to put it in the prevailing forecast at this time. Some lower ceilings are possible early Saturday morning as the potential rain overnight will bring some increased moisture to the region.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.