textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a stationary frontal boundary this afternoon and evening, bringing rain chances overnight. A few of the stronger cells may pose a risk for large hail, strong winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Showers and thunderstorms continue through the night and potentially into early Tuesday afternoon east of Highway 83. The main concern will be locally heavy rainfall, especially for storms training over the same area.

- Cooler temperatures around the middle of the week will quickly give way to above normal values by week's end with increasing rain chances for the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A low pressure system is tracking into the western Dakotas this morning, and is expected to slowly track east throughout the day. This should keep a nearly stationary boundary across central Nebraska, with a cold front tracking across Wyoming and Colorado throughout the day. Through the morning and early afternoon, expect to see some stronger winds and gusty conditions out of the south. Southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected, with gusts up to 30 mph, with the windiest conditions generally riding along the stationary front. Highs will also remain warm throughout the day, with highs pushing into the 90s across the entire region. This remains well warmer than normal, as we typically see highs of 83 to 84 for Labor Day across western and north central Nebraska.

With the stationary front remaining across central Nebraska, expect a fairly strong moisture gradient to set up across the region. Dewpoints are expected to range from the upper 50s across the Panhandle, with dewpoints in the upper 60s, and potentially lower 70s, across north central Nebraska. By mid afternoon, a weaker surface boundary is expected to track east, increasing surface convergence across north central Nebraska. This should allow for convective initiation along the boundary, with thunderstorms expected to last into the night. While the main upper level speed max is expected to track over western Nebraska, there should still be sufficient deep layer shear to support some organized convection along the boundary. Also noteworthy is the currently forecast high PWAT values. As storms initiate late afternoon into the evening, expect a few of the stronger storms could produce some large hail and severe wind gusts, as well as bring the risk for locally heavy rainfall. The main area of concern will be along and east of Highway 83, which is where the frontal boundary is expected to remain through the day.

Late evening into the overnight hours, a low level jet is expected to develop and when it collides with the stationary front, it should keep showers and thunderstorms rolling through the night. Overnight, the main threat with these thunderstorms should remain locally heavy rainfall, especially if storms continue to train over the same locations. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Tuesday morning.

By Tuesday afternoon, the cold front across Wyoming and Colorado should push east across the region, potentially kicking up one more round of showers and thunderstorms on the eastern most fringes of the North Platte CWA. Expecting that this will mostly be early in the afternoon, and given the overnight into the morning rain, very little instability should redevelop across the region. This should help limit the severe weather threat Tuesday afternoon, though still cannot rule out the potential for locally heavy rainfall. With the current timing of the front, expect that most of the rain showers should be out of the region by mid afternoon.

A shortwave tracks across the region Tuesday night, spinning up a secondary surface low in northeastern Colorado, which is expected to quickly track east. As this low deepens, expect a quick shot of rain will be possible across portions of western Nebraska and the Sandhills. However, this is expected to be fairly weakly forced, leaving a more scattered nature. Latest guidance is not overly optimistic on this bringing wetting rainfall, and mostly suggests a few hundredths up to one tenth of an inch.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

General zonal flow will prevail by midweek across much of CONUS as broad upper ridging resides across the south and enhanced mid-level flow from a deep trough tracks along the US/Canadian border. In time, upper ridging will retrograde and settle over the Desert Southwest and may introduce some subtle northwesterly flow late week. Departing frontal boundary from Monday/Tuesday will quell northward advance of richer low-level moisture for a few days and this will coincide with high pressure in the region. Cooler temperatures will result with NBM inner quartile values falling to the lower 80s by Wednesday with a steady increase towards Friday. Precipitation chances will be sparse in this time frame with ensembles fairly pessimistic on wetting rains anywhere in the region. Deeper troughing will move onshore the Pacific Northwest sometime over the weekend. This feature will dig south towards the Great Basin before crossing the central/northern Rockies sometime early next week. In the lead up to this, southwesterly flow will become established again and will lead to an increase in atmospheric moisture with PWATs advertised to exceed 140% of normal. This suggests a cloudy and cooler period with greater rain potential. NBM ensemble spreads highlight this well with inner-quartile values showing increasing spread through the weekend towards Monday where values at North Platte reaches 21F. QPF probabilities show similar increases though fall short of high confidence with only 33%, 35%, and 23% probabilities for seeing > 0.10" rainfall each day Saturday, Sunday, and Monday respectively. So even though rain chances increase towards the end of the period, confidence in truly beneficial rainfall remains low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Low cloud cover across northern Nebraska will gradually improve through the morning with VFR conditions returning to area terminals. Gusty south winds will develop with peak speeds around 25 knots. Later today, thunderstorms will develop along a surface trough, approaching frontal boundary. This activity will favor south of KVTN but should bring impacts to KLBF. Have covered with a TEMPO group for now given isolated to widely scattered coverage. Even should direct impacts occur, conditions should largely favor low-end VFR if not marginal MVFR CIGs/visibility for brief periods. Activity should depart by late tonight leaving area terminals dry the remainder of the period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.