textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures waver extensively through the upcoming weekend, with a brief warm up on Wednesday before falling to well below-normal values by Friday.

- Light snow potential continues for Thursday into Friday (35-55%) then again Saturday (20-40%) for much of western and central Nebraska.

- After a brief late week cold snap, temperatures will quickly climb to above-normal early next week with further increases with later forecasts possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Early this morning, dry and quiet conditions were noted across western Nebraska. Surface high pressure was building south across the Northern Plains and was propelling a stationary boundary across western Nebraska. Further west, strong flow off the surface was producing high level clouds off the Front Range which was slowly filling in over western Nebraska. Morning lows were generally in the teens with few exceptions. Though light winds continued across the area, wind chill values were much warmer than previous mornings with all reporting stations recording positive values.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...1030+ hPa surface high pressure will glance by the area to the east through the day today. This will bring with it an influx of colder air and will create a sharp discrepancy across the local area. Overall temperature trend was to decrease afternoon highs with MET/MAV guidance showing reasonable agreement. This produced highs ranging from the low 40s in the southwest to lower 20s in the northeast. Skies should fill in with cloud cover through the day but dry conditions are expected. Tonight, slightly colder air will move in from the northeast as high pressure extends south into the lower Missouri Valley. A return to westerly flow will favor cold air drainage and with forecast lows generally in the teens, the coldest of these values will favor river valleys and other typical cold spots.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...westerly flow will continue through the early part of the day. This will promote warm air advection (WAA) and a boost to afternoon highs. The frontal boundary will likely stall across north central Nebraska with below normal temperatures again likely for a select few. Otherwise, highs will climb into the middle 40s to lower 50s or up to 10F above normal. The downsloping flow across the western half of the forecast area will promote drying conditions and afternoon humidities are expected to fall to around 20% for far southwest Nebraska into the southern Panhandle. While typically supportive of elevated fire weather concerns, NBM probabilities of exceeding 22 knot (25 mph) gusts fall short of 40% in these same areas therefore believe concerns are quite low. With the baroclinic zone set up across our northeast, the increasing lift from an approaching shortwave will increase precipitation chances for areas generally along and north of Highway 2. Temperatures will be plenty cold and support an all snow precipitation type. Any snowfall accumulation should remain light with SREF/EPS/GEFS probabilities of measurable QPF limited to around 40-50% for along the Nebraska/South Dakota border through daybreak Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Thursday through Saturday...weak forcing will persist over the next few days as strong high pressure builds into the Northern Plains heading into Friday and departs to the south by early Saturday. The stalled boundary between the Arctic air to the east and warmer air over the higher terrain will allow periodic light snow to continue Thursday heading into the weekend. Within the strong northwesterly flow off the surface, a plume of Pacific moisture will round the ridge to the west and move into the Plains. After Thursday morning, precipitation potential decreases heading into Thursday evening before the next round of light snow moves in from western South Dakota. NBM shows an increase in 1" or greater snowfall potential with nearly 50% extending southeast from the eastern slope of the Black Hills into the central Sandhills. Similarly, EPS/GEFS mean outputs show good agreement painting a swath of 0.05"+ QPF in this same area. While not the most significant of liquid equivalent, with the expectation of seeing 15-20:1 SLRs believe a few locations will likely exceed 1" of snowfall through early Friday. Temperatures will be much colder with highs largely below freezing for all locations again supporting an all-snow event. As the core of high pressure passes to the east early Saturday, temperatures will fall quickly with sub-zero lows to the east of Highway 83. Similar to this previous Monday morning, as winds increase closer to daybreak, wind chill values should fall and the latest forecast calls for negative teens for central Nebraska and points east. Given potential for forecast lows to further fall thanks to fresh snow, will need to closely watch for potential need for cold weather headlines. Confidence in snow for Saturday decreases as track of high pressure varies significantly by the main deterministic outputs. EPS/GEFS favor areas to our northeast for more appreciable QPF but still show sizable differences. The inherited PoPs from the model blend focus over our eastern zones and believe this is adequate for now. Any precipitation should wane heading into later into Saturday, with dry conditions expected by the late evening for most if not all.

Sunday and beyond...temperatures climb quickly early next week as upper-level ridging translates east into the Great Basin. Ridge axis will arrive sometime Monday/Tuesday before the next trough moves in by Tuesday/Wednesday. NBM spreads narrow, suggesting fairly reasonable confidence in the warm up, with forecast highs returning to the 40s and low 50s. The model blend populated daytime highs closer to the 25th Percentile of the NBM envelope and therefore it's plausible that later forecasts could trend upwards. A few GEFS/EPS members show fairly impressive QPF output for the middle of the week disturbance, though this constitutes only about 10-25% of the total ensemble members of each respective model suite. Outside of this, the forecast favors dry conditions with only a brief cooldown before returning to above normal values for the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1058 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

High level cloudiness will increase Tuesday morning with scattered to broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL. Ceilings will fall to 5000 to 10000 FT AGL Tuesday afternoon and will persist through Tuesday evening. Winds will be light at under 10 KTS over the next 24 hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.