textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

-Well above-normal temperatures are expected Friday, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Strong southerly winds are also expected, with gusts up to 50 mph possible.

-Rainfall chances increase Friday evening into Saturday, with more widespread rainfall expected Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms will be possible.

- Moderate to high confidence in cooler conditions along with rainfall through early week.

- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and warmer temperatures by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Currently, a southern-stream upper-level trough is located across the Desert Southwest, as evident on upper- and mid-level water vapor satellite imagery. This trough will gradually progress eastward toward the region through the day, resulting in increasing southwesterly flow aloft across the central Plains. Ahead of this system, deep moisture transport will persist across the area, with the 00Z RAOB measuring a PWAT of 1.20 inches, near the daily maximum for this time of year. This anomalously moist air mass will remain in place as a strong low-level jet maintains northward moisture transport through the day. Temperatures this morning will remain well above average, with lows generally in the middle to upper 50s across the area, more than 20 degrees above average for late October. The combination of persistent southerly winds and increased low-level mixing should limit the potential for fog development, unlike the previous several mornings. Through the day Friday, the approaching upper-level trough will support the development and deepening of a sub-1000-mb surface low along the lee of the Rockies across Wyoming and Montana. As the surface low strengthens, the pressure gradient will tighten across the region, resulting in increasing southerly winds. Forecast guidance indicates winds of 40 to 45 knots at both 850 and 700 mb, with BUFKIT soundings supporting sufficient boundary-layer mixing to transport some of the stronger momentum aloft toward the surface. Given this signal, have trended toward the stronger wind guidance, with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts of 45 to 50 mph expected, particularly during the afternoon hours. In addition to the strong winds, warm air advection will increase within the lower to middle levels throughout the day. Strengthening southwesterly flow near 700 mb and 850-mb temperatures increasing into the 20 to 25C range, combined with clearing skies and sufficient boundary-layer mixing, should allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of the area. Across southwest Nebraska, highs may reach the middle 80s, where deeper mixing and downslope influences may support additional warming. These temperatures will remain quite anomalous for late October, generally around 20 to 25 degrees above average. By late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, a cold front will begin approaching the area from the northwest as the surface low and associated upper-level trough progress eastward. Increasing upper- level divergence and forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough, combined with low-level convergence along the frontal boundary, should support scattered shower development, particularly across northwestern portions of the forecast area. The anomalously moist air mass may also support locally enhanced precipitation rates where sufficient ascent becomes established. However, uncertainty remains regarding the timing and coverage of precipitation, particularly during the initial stages of frontal passage. Trends will continue to be monitored throughout the day. Friday night, the advancing cold front will result in a considerable temperature gradient across the forecast area. Overnight lows should fall into the upper 30s to middle 40s across western and northwestern Nebraska, where stronger cold air advection will occur behind the front. Farther east, temperatures should remain relatively mild, with lows generally in the lower to middle 50s ahead of the boundary.

Saturday, the cold front will continue progressing southeastward across the area, resulting in a shift to northwesterly winds behind the boundary. Winds will remain somewhat gusty, with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph possible. As the front progresses southeastward into the deeper moisture, increasing low- level convergence and frontogenetical forcing near 850 mb, combined with continued upper-level support ahead of the approaching trough, should result in increasing precipitation coverage through the day. Confidence is gradually increasing in more widespread rainfall across the area Saturday, particularly as the frontal boundary interacts with the anomalously moist air mass. With PWAT values well above average for late October, locally moderate to heavy rainfall rates may be possible where stronger ascent becomes established. However, uncertainty remains regarding the placement of the heaviest precipitation and the overall coverage of rainfall, which will depend on the timing and evolution of the frontal boundary and associated upper-level forcing. While severe weather is not expected, isolated thunderstorms remain possible, particularly where elevated instability develops north of the surface boundary. Temperatures Saturday will be considerably cooler behind the front as cold air advection, persistent cloud cover, and precipitation limit daytime warming. Highs should remain in the lower to middle 50s across northwestern Nebraska, with lower to middle 60s expected farther south and east.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 351 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Active weather continues on Sunday through Monday as a shortwave trough pushes off the Rockies and an upper level low deepens over Nebraska. This system will bring the potential of widespread significant rainfall to the area. While QPF amounts are still a little uncertain, confidence is high that most locations will see at least a half inch of rainfall. Some locations across north central Nebraska could even see over an inch under some of the heavier showers or thunderstorms. While these rainfall totals are significant, the longer duration of this system should keep any flooding concerns at bay. Still, will be monitoring the rainfall totals and flooding potential closely as the event unfolds.

Precipitation will begin to push out of the area Monday night, completely exiting the area by Tuesday morning. A brief dry period will push in for mid-week as weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds into the region. A return to some scattered showers is expected on Wednesday, however, confidence in shower development is very low. Will continue to monitor this mid-week showers over the next few days.

For temperatures, continued rain and clouds as well as cold air advection into the region will keep temperatures cooler than normal Sunday and Monday. Highs will only rise into the 50s both day, with some locations across the Pine Ridge not rising out of the 40s. Warmer weather arrives Tuesday as ridging builds back over Nebraska. A return to warm air advection and sunshine will allow temperatures to steadily rise back into the low to mid 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The main aviation concern will be gusty southerly winds through Friday night. Low level wind shear will be possible through the next few hours and again after sunset tonight as the low level jet intensifies. Otherwise, the strongest winds will be in the afternoon with gusts up to 35 knots at times. Winds will decrease slightly this evening, but will remain in the 20 to 25 knot range through 12Z Saturday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.