textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A combination of warm temperatures, very low humidity, and gusty south winds will lead to critical fire weather concerns on Thursday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Light rain and snow is possible for areas west of HWY 83 on Friday. Any accumulations are expected to remain light at this time.

- Near critical fire weather concerns are expected Saturday. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday through Wednesday.

- Temperatures warm back into the 80s Monday through Wednesday with dry conditions expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska.

As broad surface cyclogenesis persists across portions of eastern Montana and Wyoming into this afternoon, southerly flow quickly strengthens across the area today in response. This strengthening warm advection will boost temperatures aloft to near the 90th percentile climo, and promotes a very warm day across the area. Highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s, some 20 to 25 degrees above average for mid-April. Unfortunately, these warm temperatures will combine with dry dewpoints in the lower to middle 20s, and push relative humidity values as low as 10 to 15 percent this afternoon. As ample diurnal mixing taps into higher momentum flow aloft, wind gusts from the south increase to as high as 25 to 35 miles per hour for all. This combination of warm, dry, and gusty conditions will lead to critical fire weather concerns. See no reason to change inherited Red Flag Warnings across all of western and north central Nebraska.

By tonight, the aforementioned surface low will eject southeast across the Dakotas, and into eastern Nebraska by sunrise Friday. This will drag a strong cold front through the area, with a sharp wind shift from south to north with its passage. Strengthening cold advection will also promote ample mechanical mixing, and a period of 35 to 45 mile per hour northerly gusts can be expected overnight into Friday morning after frontal passage. This will also usher in a much colder airmass for Friday, with highs largely struggling to leave the 40s amid the continued cold advection and persistent cloudiness. Light rain and snow is also possible on Friday, as the mid-level low quickly translates across the area by early Friday evening. This will briefly increase FGEN west of HWY 83, and guidance suggests a quick moving band of light precipitation in association with this. Impacts look to remain limited with this, as QPF continues to look light. NBM probabilities of even >0.10" only peak as high as 20-40%, with the highest probabilities confined to areas west of HWY 61. Though thermodynamic profiles briefly may support snow, warm ground temps should hinder most accumulations. At this time, a dusting of snow will be possible west of HWY 83, though confidence in this is low. As the system quickly departs by late Friday afternoon, clearing skies and weakening winds should set up very efficient radiational cooling overnight. Lows Friday night fall into the lower to middle 20s across the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

After a cold start with readings in the 20s, gusty northwesterly winds will develop during the morning, persisting into the afternoon hours. H85 temps Saturday afternoon range from -2C in the northeast to 3C in the southwest. With abundant mixing expected, highs will reach into the middle and upper 50s across the area. A very dry airmass will settle into the forecast area Friday night with forecast surface dew points in the lower teens Saturday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds (better than 80% chance for gusts over 25 MPH) and low relative humidities (15 to 20 percent) will lead to near critical fire weather conditions across the area at a minimum Saturday afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are possible over SW Nebraska. For now, decided to hold off on a fire weather watch given the current RFW headlines and will highlight the threat with our DSS packet and the HWO. Surface high pressure will settle in across central Nebraska overnight Saturday night. With dry air in place, clear skies and light winds, several hours of sub-freezing temperatures appear likely with lows in the middle 20s Sunday morning. Surface high pressure will build east of the area Sunday, while upper level ridging builds into the Intermountain West. Warmer air will push into the area with H85 temps reaching into the mid to upper teens C by afternoon-leading to highs in the middle 60s to upper 70s. Once again, with surface dew points in the single digits to teens Sunday, afternoon relative humidity will fall off to 10 to 20 percent across the area. Winds will be lighter Sunday generally in the 10 to 15 MPH range, so critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated ATTM. Ridging will remain in place across the Intermountain West Monday and Tuesday, before migrating east onto the plains Wednesday. Conditions will remain dry with daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Low level moisture advection will hold off until Wednesday night, so near critical to critical minimum RH of 10 to 15 percent is expected Monday, 15 to 20 percent Tuesday and 15 to 30 percent Wednesday. Winds Monday and Tuesday have a low potential to hit 25+ MPH with the greatest threat for >25 MPH winds being Wednesday. All three days will see at least elevated fire weather conditions with near critical or critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday. No precipitation is anticipated Monday through Wednesday with the next chance Wednesday night into Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Through 04z at both terminals, expect mainly clear skies today with increasing high cloudiness this afternoon. By 00z Friday, expect broken to overcast ceilings around 20000 FT AGL. Winds will be south-southwest today with gusts of 25 to 30 KTS likely. Winds will diminish some this evening with an abrupt shift to the north by late evening. The wind shift is expected around 5Z Friday at the KVTN terminal and around 7Z Friday at the KLBF terminal. With the wind shift, expect wind gusts to increase to 25 to 30 KTS overnight. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings will fall off to 1500 to 2500 FT AGL after 09z at the KVTN terminal.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 323 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are likely today and this evening across all of western and north central Nebraska. Afternoon minimum RH will reach 9 to 15 percent with southerly wind gusts up to 35 MPH. A strong cold front later tonight, will lead to cooler temperatures, limiting fire weather concerns for Friday and Friday night. By Saturday, gusty northerly winds and very dry air will lead to minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent. This coupled with a high probability of wind gusts above 25 MPH will lead to near critical or critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Looking forward, Sunday through Wednesday will see, at a minimum, elevated fire weather conditions across the area. Monday and Wednesday have the greatest chance of seeing critical minimum RH and wind gusts above 25 MPH. On those days, near critical or critical fire weather conditions appear probable.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.