textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning today across western and southwest Nebraska. The concern is gusty westerly winds up to 30 mph, low humidity, and well above normal temperatures leading to critical fire conditions.

- Much above normal temperatures Thursday from the upper 70s to lower 80s with fire weather concerns remaining.

- Fire weather concerns peak Saturday as daytime highs climb into the middle 80s to lower 90s and westerly winds increase ahead of a sharp frontal boundary arriving sometime later in the day.

- Relatively cooler temperatures, albeit near seasonable norms, return for early next week but values should moderate once again towards the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Today, a strong upper level ridge will be centered over the Desert Southwest, as an upper trough moves across the Eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Northwest flow aloft will reside across the Northern and Central Plains. A weak surface trough will develop along the Front Range of Wyoming and Colorado. This will bring westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible to areas west of Highway 61, especially across Garden County. Lesser wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph eastward into west central Nebraska. Warmer 850mb temperatures from 15 to near 20C, will mix up to 650mb. The warmest highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s will reside for areas south of HIghway 2. Nudged highs up near the NBM 50th percentile and also used a blend of the 00Z HRRR and NBM for slightly lower dewpoints. With afternoon humidity as low as 13 percent, and wind gusts up to 30 mph, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect today from noon until 8 PM CDT for areas mainly west of Highway 83.

For more information regarding the Red Flag Warning see fire weather discussion below.

Tonight, winds will quickly decouple by 00Z, from light and variable to light northwest. Humidity recovery will be lowest across the western Sandhills and southwest from 60 to 70 percent, as lows fall into the upper 30s to near 40.

Thursday, the upper level ridge will expand slightly further east. 850mb temperatures will be slightly warmer with mixing up to 580mb. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower 80s more expansive across much of the area. Westerly winds will not be as strong in the afternoon, mostly 5 to 15 mph, with gusty up to 20 mph far northern Nebraska. Although humidity will be low at 15 to 20 percent across much of the area, the light winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns.

Thursday night, a weak surface trough will move through with a light west to northwest wind below 10 mph. Lows will be mild in the low to mid 40s with mostly clear skies with humidity recovery poor at 50 to 70 percent.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Late week into early weekend remains on track to be the warmest days of the forecast period.

Friday/Saturday...Ridge breakdown appears set to begin late Friday as 590+ dam h5 high stalls across the Desert Southwest. This happens as a shortwave disturbance rounds the dome of the high pressure and moves into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will remain warm as heights aloft remain at strongly positive anomalies, nearing +4 and +3 sigma respectively at h2 and h5. Similarly, temperatures aloft remain quite warm with values exceeding the 90th percentile from h85 up through h5. These values will climb through the day Friday as the ridge axis crosses the Continental Divide. West-northwesterly flow will continue through the day and the downsloping of warm, dry air will foster another atypical late March day. ECWMF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) continues to highlight significant anomalies in the model climatology with values of +0.8 or higher and non-zero Shift of Tails (SoT). Trajectories at h7-h5 show abundant dry air upstream and this will support largely clear skies which limits if not removes one potential fly in the ointment. The compressional warming will aid h85 temperatures in the middle to upper teens to push highs into the upper 70s to middle 80s. Overall, spread in EPS/GEFS MaxT guidance remains small with current forecast values settling near mean output of the slightly warmer EPS. Even so, GEFS isn't far behind lending more confidence towards these solutions than the seemingly erroneous NBM Percentile outputs. Thermal ridge peaks on Saturday as h7 temperatures climbs into double digits over western Nebraska. EFI and SOT values see a day-over-day increase, with values of +0.9 and +1 respectively for areas along and south of Interstate 80. Further north, uncertainty is creeping up as a progressive cold front will be knocking on the door. Forecast highs will likely reach the middle 80s to lower 90s for Highway 2 and south, but NBM spread increases along the NE/SD border where 7F+ standard deviations are showing up. General thinking is fairly high confidence heat across the southern half of the forecast area with potential record breaking temperatures. For now, northern zones remain on the warmer side of the forecast envelop but whether this adjusts with later forecasts remains to be seen. Regardless of timing of frontal passage, winds should veer quickly to the north and gusts increase quickly. Lower NBM percentile output suggests 25- 35 mph gusts while BUFKIT soundings suggest closer to 40-50 mph gusts. Folks should closely monitor later forecasts as wind gust timing and magnitude precision improves.

Sunday and beyond...in the wake of the strong front, much cooler temperatures are expected. Even with a nearly 30F drop from Saturday afternoon highs, Sunday/Monday temperatures will still be near to slightly above normal for late March. An elongated low-amplitude shortwave will cross the Central/Northern Rockies sometime late Sunday into Monday. This may reintroduce some light PoPs across western Nebraska. NBM probabilities are fairly limited, 15% or less for seeing a tenth of an inch, and EPS/GEFS output matches this thinking well. Individual EPS/GEFS outputs for 90th Percentile QPF only suggest up to a tenth of an inch and this is likely due to poor synoptics and weak lift as a result. Ridging looks to redevelop across the western CONUS as we approach the middle of next week. Deterministic solutions vary on the strength and resultant downstream pattern, thus confidence in more specific details is limited at this time. NBM inner-quartile output does show a steady climb from Monday through Wednesday and the forecast resembles this with a return to well above normal temperatures by Day 7-8. Overall, the pattern still favors mostly dry conditions with extended ensembles only advertising 30-40% potential for exceeding a tenth of an inch of liquid total (run accumulation) anywhere in the state through late next week. Certainly not the most favorable outlook given current drought and fire weather conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy today out of the WNW with gust up to 25kts this afternoon. By this evening winds will diminish and become light around 5 to 10 kts, with winds out of the WSW by mid morning Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across our western zones Wednesday where Red Flag Warnings are in place. How far east stronger wind gusts extend remains limited confidence and may limit overall fire weather concerns for portions of central Nebraska.

Wednesday...West-northwest flow persist early Wednesday morning across the area. This should back to more westerly during the daytime as temperatures climb across the area. Thermal ridge will nose in from the west today and support increasing temperatures across the area. Day-over-day changes should top 5-10F for most locations within the Red Flag Warning, possibly closer to 15F over far north central Nebraska. Cross Rockies flow will continue to be moderate to strong as h7 flow increases through the day. This will promote modest lee troughing and strengthening west winds. With warmer temperatures and similar if not lower dew points, expecting lower afternoon humidity minimums today. Winds will again be gusty but fail to match the magnitudes seen Tuesday, with peak speeds around 25 to 30 mph. Extent of these stronger winds closely aligns with HREF probabilities of exceeding 25 mph, which shows a fairly sharp gradient from the western Sandhills (100%+) through central Nebraska (< 40%). The inherited Red Flag Warning appears to be on track, though conditions may be more marginal for Zone 219 and eastern Zone 206. No changes are planned, however.

Thursday/Friday...temperatures should climb slightly for Thursday and then Friday, with nearly 1-2F boosts day-over-day for all locations. While the significant warmth (for March) will support humidity values in the 12-20% range each day, winds will be the limiting factor. NBM only suggest roughly 50/50 potential for exceeding 25 mph gusts and favors north central Nebraska versus the Sandhills into southwest Nebraska where the lower humidity is expected. This matches NAM guidance which shows an extension of an h7 speed max crossing north central Nebraska during the afternoon. Similar thinking is in place for Friday with significant warmth, low humidity, but questionable winds. NBM probabilities increase and this matches better h7 flow across the whole of the area but weak surface pressure gradient winds may hamper mixing enough to prevent the boundary layer from reaching this stronger flow. It should be close though so will need to monitor closely going forward.

Saturday...the warmest day of the forecast period with ridge breakdown beginning late Friday and ridge axis settling south and east across the High Plains. Temperatures at h7 peak in the lower teens degC during the afternoon with 1000-500 thickness values nearing 575 dam. Highs are in close agreement with EPS/GEFS mean values which suggest middle 80s north and lower 90s south. Forecast record highs are in place at North Platte, Broken Bow, and Imperial, with a near record for Valentine. GFS/ECWMF output varies with progression of a surface low and arrival of a frontal boundary, so some variability continues with extended outlooks. The EPS is further north and weaker with any potential surface low, but the more progressive nature drags the trailing front south into the area quicker. The GEFS tracks the low across Nebraska with the northern plains front settling south later in the day. The EPS solution suggests greater daytime winds and potential for greater fire weather concerns while the GEFS keeps most concerns until later when winds can finally increase behind the front. Both solutions depict a sharp front, however, and timing of this feature and magnitude of wind gusts behind it remain low confidence at this time. Do believe increasing winds appear likely behind this front and will continue to message gusts in excess of 30 mph behind a west to north flip.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-210-219.