textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions today with much warmer highs in the 70s to low 80s.

- High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to tie or break records. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect Wednesday into Wednesday night across the area.

- Gusty northerly winds expected on Thursday. While temperatures will be cooler, elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are still possible given the strength of the wind gusts.

- A brief pause to fire weather concerns on Friday. Temperatures gradually warm throughout the weekend, with gusty conditions introducing more fire weather concerns Saturday through early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Today, the upper level ridge center will build over the Desert Southwest with the ridge axis extending north into WY and MT. A much warmer airmass will return to the region, as a surface trough moves into the western Sandhills and swrn NE. This will bring a westerly wind turning northwest to areas near and west of Highway 61 and south to southwest winds to the east. Winds are not expected to be very gusty, up to 15 to 20 mph, mainly west of Highway 61. NBM highs from the low to mid 70s north central and central, to 80 to 85 southwest look in line from previous forecast, and range within the latest MET/MAV guidance. These warm afternoon temperatures, afternoon humidity falling to as low as 15 to around 20 percent, and gusty winds, will create near critical fire weather conditions west of Highway 61, while elevated to the east.

Tonight, a strong thermal ridge will advance into the Northern and Central Plains. Milder overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Winds light and variable. Overnight humidity recovery will be poor at 55 to 65 percent west of Highway 83.

Wednesday, upper ridging will begin to break down across MT and ND. Surface low pressure will deepen to near 998mb in eastern WY, as westerly to northwest winds increase to 10 to 20 mph gusting to 25 mph at times. Gusts to 30 mph are possible across the western Sandhills. Nudged NBM highs up a degree with low to mid 80s northeast, and upper 80s to lower 90s west and southwest. These highs are forecast to tie or break the existing record highs. Winds increased to near the 75th percentile. With lowest RH 12 to 18 percent, gusty winds and record highs, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Wednesday night...A 20 to 30 percent chance for light rain showers across the panhandle, western Sandhills and southwest Wednesday evening. While low level moisture will be very low, there is some mid level moisture and instability to support showers, with little if any rainfall. This is shown by the NAM, GFS, and HRRR. A cold front moves into northern Nebraska toward daybreak. Humidity recovery will be poor at 50 to 60 percent.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Behind the cold front on Thursday, temperatures drop into the upper 50s and 60s across the region. Ahead of the front, portions of southwest Nebraska may still climb into the lower 70s. Relative humidity values in the afternoon drop into the 20 to 30 percent range, remaining just above critical thresholds. However, very strong northerly winds with gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected across all of western and north central Nebraska. With little to no precipitation expected with the cold front and dry antecedent conditions, the strong winds and gusts alone will be cause enough for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns.

Temperatures remain cooler on Friday, with highs expected to remain mostly in the 50s. Winds are also expected to remain calmer, which will provide a brief pause in fire weather concerns for the extended forecast. However, the pause will be brief, as upper level ridging builds across the region again on Saturday. With the return of upper level ridging, will begin to see a steady increase of temperatures this weekend into early next week. In fact, highs may break back into the 80s as early as Sunday across western Nebraska. With the warmer temperatures, relative humidity values also drop below 25 percent each afternoon. Will continue to keep an eye on forecast trends for wind, but as for now, winds appear gusty from Saturday into early next week. This would bring at least daily chances for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns starting again this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. Mid to high level cloud cover is expected throughout the day, with multiple breaks in coverage. However, no impacts to ceilings are expected. Winds are expected to remain relatively light today, mostly out of the south. Winds gradually shift to westerly by the afternoon and become light and variable by the evening, remaining light and variable overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Temperatures are expected to remain around 20 degrees above average today, which will contribute to afternoon humidity values between 15 to 25 percent. Winds remain mostly light today, with gusts generally less than 20 mph, but the dry conditions will provide at least elevated to near critical concerns.

As for Wednesday, temperatures are expected to challenge and potentially break daily record highs across the region. This will be accompanied by even lower humidity values, with minimum values in the afternoon between 10 to 20 percent. Better mixing is expected, which will contribute to stronger winds. This may lead to critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday, so will maintain the Fire Weather Watch for now.

CLIMATE

Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)

Wednesday 03/25

* North Platte 90/84 (1907) Valentine 85/85 (1993) Broken Bow 88/83 (2004, 1956, 1908) Imperial 92/85 (1907)

* If records are hit Wednesday, it will be the 8th day so far this year a daily record high has been tied or broken at North Platte. This would also be the 15th daily record high set at North Platte since November 1, 2025!

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.