textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Somewhat elevated fire weather concerns today, especially west of Highway 83. Conditions could expand areawide Sunday. - A weak disturbance could bring some very light freezing rain Friday to northern Nebraska.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist Saturday through the first of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

A backdoor cold front has pushed southwest into north central Nebraska as expected early this morning. The front has become nearly stationary, and extends along a line from near Arnold to Thedford to Valentine. An area of low cloudiness persists along and to the northeast of the front. Along the leading edge of the lower cloud cover, patchy dense fog has been observed. Will continue a Special Weather Statement for this through sunrise this morning. As winds increase from the south after sunrise, should see the fog thin and lift. A rather difficult forecast in terms of how fast the lower clouds will dissipate/move out of north central Nebraska later this morning into this afternoon. However, as a weak area of low pressure develops and tracks across the Sandhills though the afternoon, this should help mix the milder Pacific airmass eastward and erode the cloud cover. Somewhat elevated fire weather concerns develop this afternoon, especially west of Highway 83. Highs will climb into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Overall limiting factors will be the marginally low humidity and northwest wind gusts generally remaining 20 mph or less.

The above mentioned front tries to push back to the southwest tonight...as another area of surface low pressure develops across southwest South Dakota. This feature will be ahead of a weak southeastward moving shortwave within the northwest flow aloft downstream of the Rockies ridge. Warm air advection will increase in the mid-levels, with a mid-level cloud deck developing across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska overnight. A warm front at the surface will sharpen Friday morning as the surface low migrates to southeast into the Sandhills by the afternoon. Mid-level frontogenesis will increase across northern Nebraska to the northeast of the front. Some light precipitation is possible as the column saturates, with the precipitation most likely starting as light freezing rain. Areas across Holt, Boyd and Wheeler counties will struggle to reach the freezing mark...as the warm front will likely remain just southwest of this area. Spotty light freezing rain will be possible into the afternoon hours across these areas. Overall expecting little or no ice accumulation, but even trace amounts could cause slick conditions on untreated surfaces.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Ridging aloft remains across the Rockies Saturday, but begins to quickly breakdown Saturday night into Sunday. As this occurs, seeing a classic signal for elevated near-critical or even potentially critical fire weather concerns for Sunday. Highs Sunday continue to trend warmer, now well into the 60s for areas to the west of Highway 183. Humidity as low as 20-25% along with gusty west to northwest winds develop along and west of Highway 83 by afternoon. This could set the stage for the potentially critical conditions and will continue to monitor.

Otherwise, the period continues to look dry, with above normal temperatures forecast right though Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the bulk of the forecast period with degraded conditions likely during the morning Friday.

High clouds continue to stream west to east across the region with bases located above 20kft AGL. These should gradually lower through the daytime, falling below 10kft AGL for area terminals shortly after Midnight tonight. Winds may become breezy out of the northwest for northern Nebraska to include the VTN terminal with gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range. Winds flip more southerly late in the period as low-end VFR and MVFR CIGs arrive. For northern Nebraska, light precipitation should move in sometime late morning. Have included a PROB30 to account for this at VTN where ptype, though heavily dependent on precise temperatures, may fall as a wintry mix.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.