textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today with a Red Flag Warning in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Gusty northwest winds late this this morning through the afternoon into the early evening.

- Temperatures will rebound Friday into Saturday with lower 90s forecast for SW Nebraska.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase beginning Friday night with a decent threat for severe storms Saturday.

- A more active pattern will continue into early next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be fairly mild with daily highs in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the critical fire weather concern today and the strong northwest winds. Early this morning, generally before sunrise there will be some weak convection developing along a boundary across the northern Sandhills. At this time it looks to remain mainly rain showers, however there is the potential there could be an isolated thunderstorm, but no severe weather is expected. Showers will be scattered in nature, not expecting much more than trace amounts of precipitation accumulation with shower activity as dewpoints are in the 40s.

Late this morning drier air mass being the frontal boundary moving east into the area will spread dewpoints even lower, into the 30s well east into portions of central and north central Nebraska by Wednesday afternoon. Min RH values will dip down into the teens for most of the Sandhills and western Nebraska with 20 to 25 percent across the western portions of north central Nebraska. Winds will increase by late morning as good mixing is expected, bufkit soundings show very strong winds aloft in the mid levels around 55 to 70 kts, bringing sfc wind gusts up to 45 to 50kts in some locations. The strongest winds will be across western Nebraska. The combination of strong winds and low humidity will lead to critical fire weather concerns across all of western and north central Nebraska. A Red Flag Warning has been issued from noon through 9pm CDT today. As winds decouple in the evening, the strong winds will subside fairly quickly.

For Thursday and Friday, northwest flow aloft is expected with a ridge out to the west Thursday, moving slightly eastward into the High Plains on Friday. Temperatures will warm into the 80s by Friday, with the nose of 850 temps around 20 to 25 pushing in across southwest Nebraska, will see highs reach the 90s there. As far as precipitation chances on Thursday and Friday, expect mostly dry conditions, there may be a slight chance for convection late evening into the overnight Friday, at this time confidence is low in convection during the evening, with better confidence in showers and thunderstorm activity after midnight, mainly elevated in nature.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Surface high pressure will drop south across the mid Mississippi Valley Friday shifting winds to the south. This will begin to advect modest amounts of low level moisture into western Nebraska Friday. By afternoon, dew points will reach into the middle 40s to around 50 in SW Nebraska. The moisture advection, coupled with modest southerly winds (10 to 20 MPH) should limit fire weather concerns Friday. Thanks to the southerly winds, low level warm air advection will also push north into the area with afternoon highs rebounding into the 80s to around 90 across the forecast area. This is a 5 to 10 degree warmup from Thursday's forecast of upper 70s to lower 80s. Beginning Friday night, a disturbance will lift east of California into the Great Basin. This will induce surface cyclogenesis off to the west of the forecast area. Low level moisture advection will continue into Friday night, thanks to a 30+ KT low level jet which develops from western Kansas into western Nebraska. By Saturday morning, dew points will reach well into the 50s across the entire forecast area. As surface low pressure deepens across northeastern Colorado Saturday, a warm front is progged to extend east northeast of this feature into Nebraska. Decent southerly winds will continue to force low level moisture into the area Saturday. By afternoon, dew points will reach into the lower 60s across the area. By afternoon, decent surface heating over northeastern Colorado, NW Kansas and SW Nebraska will push highs into the lower 90s. The California disturbance (mentioned above) will cross the Rockies Saturday, approaching the high plains Saturday afternoon into the evening hours steepening mid level lapse rates. This will lead to thunderstorm initiation during the late afternoon hours. As this activity tracks east, it will encounter decent low level level moisture and storm coverage is expected to become more widespread. Deep layer shear in the latest GFS soln is on the order of 40 to 50 KTS Saturday evening which will support supercell thunderstorms. In addition to large hail and a damaging wind threat, GFS forecast sounding hodographs across SW Nebraska Saturday afternoon indicate decent low level curvature and strong low level directional shear, so a tornado or two cannot be ruled out- especially if a warm front is draped across the forecast area. In addition to the hazards listed above, there is decent potential for heavy rain Saturday night. Forecast PWATS Saturday evening reach 1.5+ inches across all but west of highway 61. For KLBF the daily max for PW is 1.54 inches Saturday with the 90th %ile being 1.21 inches. The forecast of 1.5+ inches in the latest GFS soln is concerning for heavy rain Saturday night and will mention this in the HWO this morning along with the standard large hail, damaging winds and tornado verbiage. A decent H5 low will track southeast from the Arrowhead of Minnesota into the eastern Great Lakes late Saturday night into Sunday forcing a back door cold front into the forecast area. Sunday looks to be much cooler with highs in the 70s and a threat for rainfall across the forecast area. A second upper level trough will traverse southern Canada Monday night into Tuesday, forcing a secondary shot of cooler air into the forecast area. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 70s with a continued threat for precipitation both days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2026

Expect VFR conditions at both the KLBF and KVTN terminals over the next 24 hours. There will be a minor threat for thunderstorms in the vicinity of the KVTN terminal from 06z to 10z tonight. Gusty northwesterly winds will develop overnight and will continue through early evening Wednesday. Wind gusts will approach 40+ KTS at the KVTN terminal during the afternoon hours Wednesday. Expect wind gusts of 35 to 40 KTS at the KLBF terminal during the same time frame.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Passage of a cold front by daybreak is expected across the area. Behind the front, strong northwesterly winds will develop today through mid evening. The latest deterministic models along with the NBM ensemble, continues to indicate good potential for wind gusts in the 40 to 50 MPH range this afternoon, generally along and north of I-80. Even south of this route, the potential for wind gusts to eclipse 30 MPH is 70 to 90%. Thanks to northwesterly winds, drier air will push into the forecast area this afternoon with dew points reaching into the lower to middle 30s. Minimum RH this afternoon will reach 15 to 25 percent with wind gusts ranging from 35 to 50 MPH across the area.

Recent contact with fuel partners across the FA indicate fuels are partially cured and will burn under favorable conditions. Given the forecast wind gusts this afternoon and the minimum RH forecast, decided to upgrade the fire weather watch to a red flag warning from Noon through 9 PM CDT today.

Beyond today, Thursday will feature cooler temperatures, higher relative humidities and lighter winds which will limit overall fire weather concerns. Winds will shift around to the south Friday, forcing low level moisture into the area. Winds Friday may gust to around 20 MPH with minimum RH of 25 to 35 percent across the area producing possibly elevated fire weather conditions in SW Nebraska. ATTM, the threat for any fire weather headlines for Friday appears low. After Friday, a more active pattern will commence across the area. Low level moisture will increase along with the threat for daily precipitation chances, limiting fire weather concerns.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.