textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening across all of western and north central Nebraska Saturday, with thunderstorms likely continuing overnight into early Sunday.

- Sunday afternoon and evening potential for another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms.

- Additional rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday, with some severe potential lingering across north central Nebraska and cooling temperatures in the west perhaps reintroducing some wintry precipitation for the Sandhills. At this time, certainty in wintry impacts Monday night/Tuesday morning is low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A sfc low will deepen across SE Colorado Saturday increasing southeast flow and moisture advection into the region. A warm front will be in place to the south across northern Kansas. A few of the CAMs suggest there could be convection by early afternoon, although confidence is lower in the early convection it can't be ruled out given the unstable environment that will be in place by early afternoon, where strong winds and large hail will be the main hazards.

MU CAPE will increase by mid-afternoon to around 1500 to 2000 J/kg, and 2500 to nearing 3000 J/kg by Saturday evening, with highest CAPE values along and south of I-80. 0-6 km shear will increase to 45 to 50 kts by early afternoon and lapse rates will steepen. Moisture will also increase in the afternoon with the greatest moisture across southwest Nebraska into the southern Sandhills and portions of north central Nebraska with dewpoints in the 50s. Bufkit soundings show elongated hodographs by late evening, suggesting storm mode will be supercells with greater potential for very large hail. Most of the corridor south of interstate 80 is located within a enhanced risk (level 3 or 5) for the threat of very large hail, confidence in seeing thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail in this corridor is medium to high. For areas outside of the enhanced risk, there still remains a threat for large hail as the environment will remain favorable, with steep lapse rates and wind shear. There is also the potential as storms continue to progress through the evening for a MCS to develop, which could enhance the strong damaging wind threat. The main hazards with thunderstorms Saturday will be strong damaging winds and large hail (potentially greater than 3 inches), and an isolated tornado threat, greatest across the southwest/southern portions of the forecast area (along and south of I-80), can't be ruled out. Convection will continue into the overnight, with storms likely becoming more elevated in the overnight.

Sunday could potentially be another active weather day, however there is a little more uncertainty depending on where the frontal boundary sets up across Nebraska. The latest forecast models have started to shift it further eastward, which if the current trend continues could result in less of the forecast area having a concern for severe weather. Due to the uncertainty will need to closely monitor the frontal boundary. The environment will be similar to Saturday's with steep lapse rates, MU CAPE values around 2000 J/kg and greater and 0 to 6 km shear around 50 to 60 mph. The main hazards will be strong, damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated threat for a tornado can't be ruled out.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 302 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Monday...height falls will continue to overspread the area as longwave troughing crosses the Great Basin and approaches the Central Rockies. Another lead shortwave will eject and lift northeast through western Nebraska during the daytime. This occurs as strong cold air advection overspreads much of the local area. The result will be a tightening baroclinic zone across largely south central through northeast Nebraska by the afternoon. Afternoon highs range from the lower 40s northwest to closer to 60F in vicinity of the front. As a surface low lifts north and east along this feature, rain and thunderstorms are likely to blossom during the afternoon hours. With h85 east/southeasterly flow crossing over to the cool side of the surface boundary, elevated instability should develop for much of our eastern zones (east of Highway 83). Beneath a strong h5 jet, deep layer shear will be quite strong with 50+ knots of BWD. Though the Storm Prediction Center further retreated the Day 3 SWO out of the local area, believe a few elevated hail storms remain possible. Point forecast soundings, notably from the NAM, show very strong instability above the frontal inversion with LIs falling below -5C. Given the magnitude and distribution of instability, believe severe hail remains possible for central and north central Nebraska. Further west, instability wanes quickly across the Sandhills/southwest Nebraska and thus the threat for thunder decreases. Synoptic lift will increase as the h5 trough axis lifts out of northeast Colorado. With cooling temperatures, believe some snow will be possible for the Panhandle and along the NE/SD border. With close proximity to a strong surface low, expect strong gusts. Factoring this in with possible wintry precipitation, some travel difficulties are possible but to what magnitude remains unclear given antecedent warmth and uncertainty with ptype changeover/placement.

Tuesday and beyond...mid-level disturbance will quickly lift north and east, out of the Central Plains. Behind it, expansive troughing will follow with heights building in through Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will favor dry conditions with temperatures beginning a slow recovery. Quasi-northwesterly flow should develop by Thursday lasting through the late week. This will support spotty precipitation chances with temperatures returning to seasonable values and eventually above normal levels. Extended temperatures are closely in-line with NBM median values, which show a steady rise from Thursday through early the next week. This suggests a return to upper 80s to lower 90s possible as we approach the end of the month. Meanwhile, probabilistic guidance suggests modest potential for measurable rain almost each day but signals for wetting rains remain quite muted so truly beneficial moisture does not appear in the cards for the mid-range of the forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected until the latter half of the forecast period when MVFR conditions appear likely to work in.

Ongoing showers with a few weak thunderstorms are ongoing across northeast Colorado. This is in association with an approaching disturbance set to bring fairly expansive rain and thunderstorms later in the day Saturday. At this time, the potential for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm is low so will cover with a PROB30 at LBF. Later on, better chances arrive from the west and will carry prevailing at LBF with a VCTS at VTN given more limited coverage up there. Direct impacts from thunderstorms could include IFR/LIFR visibility/ceilings in addition to hail and gusty winds.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.