textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures across most of the region today. As the cold front continues south, a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms Thursday, with wind and hail the primary concerns across all of western and north central Nebraska

- The upper level pattern and stalled front set up a general pattern for near to above average temperatures and near daily showers and thunderstorms through early next week.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Subtle ridging is observed over north central Montana, with a near zonal, west-northwesterly flow aloft over western Nebraska. A cold front is located across southern South Dakota, which will be the catalyst for our active weather the next several days. On radar and satellite, a band of showers and thunderstorms are tracking across central and western South Dakota this morning, extending into northwestern Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The cold front continues to slowly track south early this morning, and will eventually stall out across the region. South of the cold front, temperatures climb into the 90s across most of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. The moisture advection today sets up dewpoints in the 60s east of Highway 83. The better instability axis sets up further east than previously expected, and as such, the Storm Prediction Center has shifted the previous Marginal Risk eastward and out of the North Platte County Warning Area. Additionally, with the warm temperatures, the environment will be mostly uncapped, with weak shear, which is not exceptionally supportive for organized convection. Even though the Marginal Risk is east of the region, a few thunderstorms may still have the potential to produce some strong, gusty winds and small hail, especially across north central Nebraska. Overnight, high dewpoints will help limit overnight lows from dropping too much, with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible on Thursday, with a fairly similar set up. The cold front remains to the north, with moisture advection keeping dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s. Another round of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s is expected. This sets up an axis of instability ahead of a eastward moving surface boundary, and while shear is not overly impressive it is a bit more supportive of organized convection. A line of thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Nebraska, tracking east throughout the afternoon and evening. With the better environmental conditions, the SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk on Thursday to include all of western and north central Nebraska, with wind and hail remaining the primary concerns.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Looking ahead to the end of the week, upper level flow remains nearly zonal across western Nebraska, with a suggestion of slight ridging across the Dakotas, and an upper level high over the Desert Southwest. At the 850 mb level, strong warm air advection from the southwest and the southern Plains brings warm temperatures aloft, contributing to above average temperatures across the region this weekend. This also sets up strong moisture advection off the Gulf, bringing dewpoints into the 50s and 60s. A series of shortwaves tracks through the upper level flow, providing support for a series of surface disturbances. The front remains nearly stationary across northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota, with the disturbances and diurnal process causing oscillations in the frontal position across the Dakotas and back into the Sandhills. Early next week, as the upper level high breaks down across the southern Plains, the upper level flow becomes mostly zonal across western Nebraska.

This general pattern will support near to above average temperatures through the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures are currently expected to be warmest on Sunday, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region. However, these temperatures are still on the lower end of guidance, so think these will continue to trend up in the coming days, as the frontal position is more certain. With the abundant moisture, warm temperatures, and frontal position, near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected in the late afternoon and evening hours. With the front expected to finally push through the region, should see a return to near normal temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. There will be a brief 4 hour period of LLWS across southwest Nebraska, including KLBF terminal, with winds 35 kts. Sfc winds will generally be out of the south tonight, then switch to the north across the northern Sandhills in the early morning, with wind speeds around 5 to 10 kts. Winds increase out of the north in the afternoon around 10 kts with gust up to 20 kts. Across southwest Nebraska winds will remain out of the south through the forecast period, light tonight around 5 to 10 kts, increasing wind gust in the afternoon to 20 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.