textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across western and southwestern Nebraska. Though chances for thunderstorms remains low, a few of the stronger cells pose a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts.

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected tomorrow, with the possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms across western Nebraska in the evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts remain the primary concerns.

- Thunderstorm chances persist each evening through the end of the week, though the severe risk become less certain as the week goes on.

- Temperatures are expected to remain below average through the end of the week. However, temperatures are expected to return near seasonal to above seasonal by the weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A cold front continues to track across western and north central Nebraska this afternoon, with a band of showers and thunderstorms along the leading edge. The front has mostly pushed out of the region, with thunderstorms now to the south and east of the region. Overall, this frontal passage, as well as the earlier convection, should limit the severe threat this evening, as more stability builds across the region. This evening, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along eastern Wyoming and Colorado, tracking to the southeast. The main concern for thunderstorms and any severe weather this evening would be if one of these storms manages to hold together as it tracks east into the eastern Panhandle or portions of southwest Nebraska. If these storms manage to overcome the more hostile environment, they would continue to pose a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts, but again, confidence is low in storms overcoming the environment in western Nebraska.

Tomorrow, a low pressure system tracks across Colorado, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms by the evening, especially across western Nebraska. Modest instability is expected to develop across western Nebraska, around 1,500-2,000 J/kg surface based CAPE. Forecast sounding suggest long, straight hodographs, with around 50 to 60 knots deep layer shear, supporting organized convection and splitting cells. With the anticipated environment tomorrow evening, the main severe concern remains large hail, though potential for damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Additionally, PWAT values in excess of 1 inch are expected, supporting heavy rainfall with storms, especially training thunderstorms, even if the severe risk does not fully materialize. On top of that, showers and thunderstorms are expected to last through the night, so given the available moisture, some areas could see some very beneficial rainfall amounts across the region.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Thursday, as the low across eastern Colorado continues to track east, showers and thunderstorms are expected to last throughout the day, continuing rainfall across the region. Although we are in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Thursday already, the severe risk remains low confidence. With showers and thunderstorms expected to last most of the day, the environment may struggle to build sufficient instability for more robust convection. However, plenty of moisture remains across the region, with PWATs remaining over one inch again. While the severe threat remains lower confidence at this time, storms will bring a potential for heavy rainfall across the region, continuing to provide beneficial rainfall.

A frontal boundary is expected to track across the region on Friday afternoon, potentially bringing another round of thunderstorms, particularly Friday evening. However, confidence is somewhat lower heading into Friday for thunderstorm development as well as severe weather potential. Questions remain on how much moisture will be available, as well as the general environment. At this time, will continue to keep an eye on forecast trends, especially as finer scale features become resolved. However, those with outdoor plans on Friday evening may want to keep up to date with the latest forecast. However, with rain expected potentially both days, temperatures are expected to remain on the cooler side both days, with highs potentially in the 60s on Thursday, returning to the 70s by Friday.

Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging begins to develop across the region, bringing a return of at least seasonal highs, and some suggestion of above seasonal highs by Sunday. As a reminder, seasonal highs this time of year are around 86 to 87 degrees. The latest forecast guidance continues to suggest highs in the mid to upper 80s, with a few areas now showing greater potential for the lower 90s, especially by Sunday. Probabilistic guidance suggests nearly a 100 percent chance of exceeding 80 degrees by Sunday for the entire region, with greatest potential to break 90 across southwest Nebraska. While the European and GEFS ensembles are in agreement on breaking 80, there is some disagreement on breaking 90. In this case, the European ensemble trends to the cooler temperatures, with only a 40 to 50 percent chance of breaking 90, while the GEFS brings an 80 to 90 percent chance. Confidence in highs this weekend should continue to increase as the upper level pattern becomes more resolved. This pattern remains in place into early next week as well. While the days are generally expected to remain dry, there is potential for showers and thunderstorms late evening into the overnight hours most of these days, especially areas across northern Nebraska.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A cold front is tracking across western and central Nebraska, with an expanse of stratus in its wake. Expecting that cloud cover remains around area terminals this afternoon, with low end VFR and brief MVFR ceilings. Cloud cover is expected to persist across southwest Nebraska, with potential for fog development overnight, given available moisture and light, variable winds. By mid morning, expecting any fog will burn off, with lower clouds remaining into the afternoon. Further north, skies are expected to clear out overnight, with development of fair weather cumulus by mid morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.