textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms continue across the area into this evening. A few storms could be strong to severe primarily along and south of Interstate 80. Hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

- A threat for strong to severe storms returns Sunday afternoon and evening, primarily for areas near and east of Highway 83. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats.

- Additional threats for showers and thunderstorms exist nearly each day early and middle next week, though confidence in locations and precipitation amounts remains low for now.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Surface high pressure has moved off to the east of the area today, leading to increasing southwesterly flow in its wake. This has allowed for temperatures to quickly return to the 70s across the area this afternoon. With modest surface moisture (dewpoints in the upper 30s to 40s) beneath steep lapse rates aloft, marginal MLCAPE ~250-500 J/kg is in place across western Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorm development is underway west of HWY 61 and along/north of HWY 2 early this afternoon. These storms are expected to gradually strengthen and pose a risk of hail and damaging winds, with winds being the more prevalent threat. This is due to deep inverted-v profiles in the lowest few kilometers, with low-level dry air in place. The strongest deep layer shear (~20-30kts) is in place across southwest Nebraska today, and this is where the threat for a strong to severe storm is greatest locally. Some clustering of storms may occur as they move quickly from west to east across the area, before waning and exiting the area near and after sunset.

Attention then turns to a potentially more robust severe weather setup for tomorrow. As southerly flow continues into tomorrow, a narrow corridor of middle to upper 50s dewpoints are expected to overspread areas along and east of HWY 83 ahead of an encroaching surface trough. With steep lapse rates aloft still in place, the increasing surface buoyancy will promote greater instability tomorrow afternoon. MLCAPE values climbing to as high as ~1500- 2000J/kg are expected across much of central and north central Nebraska. Deep layer shear will be stronger tomorrow as well, on the order of 30-40kts, and be oriented largely perpendicular to the southwest to northeast surface trough. This points towards a discrete supercell storm mode at least initially, and should lead to a threat for large to potentially significant (>2") hail near and east of HWY 83. Some threat for damaging winds will also exist, especially should any upscale growth occur with time. Low level shear remains meager, and though moisture does increase modestly, increased T/Td spreads point towards rather high LCLs tomorrow. This should limit a threat for tornadoes, though trends will continue to be monitored. Storms exit off to the east by late evening, with dry conditions then expected tomorrow night.

Will also have to monitor a threat for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions west of the aforementioned surface trough. Here, warm temperatures in the middle to upper 80s and much drier air will lead to humidity values falling into the teens. The biggest limiting factor at this time looks to be winds, with guidance suggesting the westerly winds remaining weaker behind the surface trough tomorrow. Still, trends will need to be monitored closely.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A rather complex upper air pattern is expected to evolve into next week, and lends to lowered confidence in any thunderstorm threats across the local area. The primary feature of note for the central US is the placement of a ridge axis, as it amplifies across the middle Mississippi Valley into the northern Plains into midweek. This keeps the local area on the western periphery of this ridge, and potentially under the influence of slow moving upper low pressure by middle to late next week. The upper air pattern looks to become largely stagnant through the next week, as an omega block develops across the CONUS. Until placement of upper features become more certain, it will be difficult to pin down the exact nature of any thunderstorm threats locally. That said, the environment in place does look conducive for potentially locally heavy rainfall, with weak steering flow and PWAT values approaching the 99th percentile climo by late week. Trends will continue to be monitored, though optimism does exist for some beneficial moisture across the area where extreme to exceptional drought continues.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

An area of TSRA has moved east of the KLBF terminal with current winds near 04015G25KT. These winds will diminish with a light southeast wind after 02Z. LLWS may develop at KLBF from 07Z until 12Z and may include in the next TAF issuance. On Sunday, southwest winds will gust to around 20KT after 18Z. Showers and a few thunderstorms will linger across central NE until 02Z, including KBBW. Thunderstorms may develop east of the KLBF and KVTN terminals Sunday afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions will persist across western NE the next 24 hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.