textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning through this evening for all of western and north central Nebraska and again for Wednesday for western and southwest Nebraska

- Well above normal temperatures for Wednesday, highs approaching 80 across southwest Nebraska

- A highly anomalous warm and dry pattern is expected for late week into the weekend, with daily record temperatures likely challenged at all record sites.

- A cold front passes through the area Saturday night into Sunday, bringing a return of near average temperatures into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The greatest concern in the short term will be the continued gusty winds and dry conditions the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening as the warm front continues to progress eastward. Winds will gust up to 35 to 45 mph for portions of western Nebraska into the central Sandhills. As we head into the evening hours winds will decouple and wind speeds will drop to around 10 mph or less.

For tomorrow, will see breezy winds again, but not as strong as today's winds, but will still remain out of the northwest. The strongest winds will generally be across western Nebraska where the better mixing will exist. Will see wind gust around 25 to 35 mph across western Nebraska, which is supported by forecast soundings. Lesser wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph eastward into west central Nebraska. Warmer 850 mb temperature generally around 15 to near 20 degrees, with highest across western and southwest Nebraska, expect this to mix down to upper 70s to near 80 degrees for western and southwest Nebraska, although these will be well above normal for this time of year, records for tomorrow are not expected.

For more information regarding the Red Flag Warning see fire weather discussion below.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The main concern for late week and into the weekend looks to be highly anomalous upper ridging, which will slowly migrate east out of the southwestern US. As this happens, temperatures will quickly move to well above average by Thursday, and look to challenge daily records by Friday and Saturday. This upper ridge looks to challenge late March climatological maximums, both in regards to heights and temperatures aloft. In fact, H7 temperatures exceed the 90th percentile by Friday, and then above the 99th percentile for Friday and Saturday. Looking at heights, H5 heights steadily rise late week, reaching well above the 99th percentile and approaching the late March climo max by Saturday. This all points towards likely record warmth across all of western and north central Nebraska, especially Friday into Saturday.

Saturday looks to be the warmest day, with a near textbook setup for record highs across the area. Very warm temperatures will be in place aloft, with H85 temps in the middle 20C range, which is more typical of late July or August. Strengthening westerly downslope flow is also expected ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, promoting ample and deep diurnal mixing through the day. Cloud cover would be a potential limiting factor, though guidance largely keeps skies mostly clear through the evening hours at this time. The speed of the approaching cold front will need to be monitored as well, though indications are this will not impact at least portions of western and southwest Nebraska until after peak heating. Believe not only daily records, but potentially monthly records may be in jeopardy for portions of the area Saturday. In fact, Broken Bow, North Platte, and Imperial are all forecast to break or be within a few degrees of the current standing all time warmest March high temperatures. The current forecast also sits towards the lower end of the guidance envelope, and very well may need to be adjusted upwards. Unfortunately, this will also translate to very low relative humidity, and increasing fire concerns can also be expected for late week and this weekend.

A cold front finally passes through the area Saturday night, as a surface low ejects south across western Nebraska Saturday evening. Strengthening cold advection will lead to increasing northwest winds with its passage, with gusts as high as 40 to 45 miles per hour possible. This will also mark a return of much cooler temperatures, though still near average (50s to low 60s) for late March. The passage of this system could bring a return of precipitation to the area as well, though guidance remains at odds with respect to this. A look at NBM probabilities for any precipitation (>0.01") shows probabilities only peaking at ~30-40% Sunday into Monday across the area. Increasing this to >0.10" shows probabilities falling to <20% for all. Even with a lack of confidence in appreciable moisture, this will continue to be monitored with the lack of recent precipitation and expanding drought conditions for much of the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The main aviation concern will be LLWS at the KVTN terminal until 04Z, with WS020/33040KT. Skies will remain BKN200 at the KLBF and VTN terminals until 10Z, then FEW250 for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will remain near 32012G22KT at KVTN until 04Z, then light westerly until winds increase to 28013G21KT after 19Z Wednesday. At KLBF, winds will remain light northwest overnight through Wednesday morning, then increase to 28010g17KT by 20Z through the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Critical fire weather concerns persist through sunset today, with gusty northwest winds and very low humidity persisting.

Very poor humidity recovery is then expected overnight, with recovery to only 55 to 65 percent across much of western and southwest Nebraska. Lows tonight fall into the upper 30s to low 40s. Critical fire weather conditions are then expected again tomorrow, as temperatures climb into the middle to upper 70s. This will combine with very dry air and push humidity into the middle teens to low 20s across western and southwest Nebraska tomorrow afternoon. Winds will again be gusty from the west-northwest tomorrow, with gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-209-210-219. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ204-206-210-219.