textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A combination of mild temperatures, dry conditions, and strong west- northwest winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions across portions of southwest Nebraska today.

- Showers are possible along a cold front moving through the area this afternoon, though little to no accumulations are expected. Gusty winds will be possible with these showers.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday and Friday across the area.

- A strong cold front will bring much colder air to the region Saturday with a threat for light snow Sunday into Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around critical fire weather conditions today. Further details will be contained in the fire weather discussion below.

For tonight, expect temperatures to fall into the middle 20s to 30s under mostly cloudy skies. Winds remain light and variable, with weak surface high pressure centered over eastern Nebraska. As this surface high slowly migrates east into Iowa, southerly flow will return to western Nebraska by sunrise.

For today, expect a shortwave trough (currently located near the International Border) to push south across the northern Plains, and across the area by this afternoon. At the surface, an associated surface low will eject east out of southeastern Wyoming and into southwestern Nebraska by early afternoon. This will drag a surface trough to near Highway 83, with strengthening westerly flow across western Nebraska in its wake. Despite persistent middle and upper level cloudiness due to anomalous moisture aloft, enough mixing is expected in the downslope regime to tap into a belt of stronger westerlies aloft. Momentum transfer of the stronger flow aloft will promote strengthening winds across western Nebraska by early afternoon, and west-northwest wind gusts as high as 40 to 50 miles per hour are expected. HREF probabilities of gusts >40 miles per hour maximize as high as 70-80% for areas along and south of I-80 and west of HWY 83, and this is where confidence is highest in an overlap of strong winds and lowered RH. Though humidity values will only drop into the 20-25% range, very dry fuels and the expected strong winds are enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning for portions of southwest Nebraska tomorrow.

In addition to the fire weather threat, a cold front will push quickly south across the area through the afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, lapse rates remain steep enough in the mid-levels to squeeze out ~100-200J/kg of MUCAPE. This points to at least some threat for convective showers, and a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. This will need to be monitored closely, as QPF will remain very light <0.10", and this would lead to a threat of dry lightning. The biggest threat with these showers looks to be strong winds, as soundings also indicated deep inverted-v profiles in the lowest couple of kilometers. Any showers this afternoon look to have a threat for strong outflow winds, and would also be of great concern for any fire starts.

Showers quickly exit the area by evening, with dry conditions returning overnight. Lows fall into the 20s Thursday morning, as weak surface high pressure moves into the area behind the departing surface low. Westerly downslope flow persists through the day Thursday, keeping highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the entire area. This will also push humidity values into the upper teens to low 20s, and a threat for fire weather concerns looks to develop yet again. Though winds are not expected to be quite as strong on Thursday, gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour will lead to another day of near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

West northwesterly flow will persist Friday across the central and southern plains with warm temperatures expected across the forecast area. Highs Friday will generally be in the 60s with increased fire weather concerns during the afternoon (see fire section below). By Friday night, a northern stream trough and low will push a cold front through the Dakotas, approaching northern Nebraska by Saturday morning. The latest GFS and EC solns are more aggressive with the front compared to the latest 00z NAM12 soln. The former two model solutions have the front over northern Nebraska by 12z Saturday with the latter soln (NAM12) having this front over southern South Dakota at 12z Saturday. This will make the temperature forecast for Saturday problematic. Since 12z Saturday is the NAM12's first guess being 84 hours out, and being the outlier, prefer the more aggressive GFS and EC solns with respect to the frontal passage. That being said, highs will vary widely Saturday with highs in the upper 30s in the north and possibly upper 50s in the far southwest. The three solns are indicative of decent mid level forcing trailing the front over South Dakota Saturday, so the main threat for precipitation appears to be north of the area. By Sunday, the cold front will settle south of the forecast area in Kansas. Later Sunday afternoon, mid level frontogenesis and a H300 jet streak will come together across Nebraska into Iowa. This will lead to an increased threat for snow Sunday afternoon into Sunday night and possibly Monday morning. So far the extended NBM grids have slight to low end chances for precipitation during these periods and is supported by the deterministic GFS and EC solns. Beyond Monday, ridging will begin to build into the northwestern CONUS, forcing the arctic airmass east of the area. The latest deterministic GFS has a closed low undercutting the ridge late Tuesday into the middle of next week. This solution could lead to increased precipitation chances toward the middle of next week across the central and southern plains. ATTM with the low not phased with the northern stream, temps appear too warm to support snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Scattered to broken high level ceilings are expected this morning with ceilings ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL. This afternoon, broken ceilings around 7000 to 8000 FT AGL are expected with isolated showers possible. The threat for showers will end by early evening with skies becoming scattered at 20000 FT AGL. Winds may become gusty this afternoon with northwest wind gusts up to 25 KTS possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon across far southwestern Nebraska. Gusty west and northwesterly winds will develop in advance of an approaching cold front today from the western Sandhills south to far southwestern Nebraska. Minimum RH this afternoon will reach 20 to 25 percent over far southwestern Nebraska. Wind gusts in these areas will reach 40 up to 45 MPH this afternoon facilitating a red flag warning for zone 210. In addition, isolated showers are possible across the entire forecast area this afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds are possible in the vicinity of showers this afternoon into the evening hours given the expected inverted V type sounding profiles. In addition, there may be enough instability for an isolated lightning strike or two.

On Thursday and Friday, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible once again. Minimum RH Thursday afternoon will fall off to 15 to 20 percent generally west of highway 83. Winds however will be lighter with 25 MPH gust potential confined to the eastern Panhandle and far northern Nebraska. On Friday, widespread minimum RH down to 15 to 20 percent is expected across all of western and north central Nebraska. Wind gusts are expected to remain below 20 MPH across most of the forecast area. The exception is over the eastern Panhandle where gusts may approach 25 MPH Friday afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for NEZ210.