textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence in precipitation potential tonight into Wednesday

- Moderate to high confidence in a return to near-critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return.

- Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night, with a low confidence of some light accumulating snow.

- Moderate confidence in a cooler start to the weekend with temperatures returning to well above normal by early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Current radar imagery shows some widely scattered showers already occurring across portions of the Sandhills and into northern Nebraska this afternoon. A better potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop late this afternoon and into the evening as a developing low pressure system over the Rockies begins to push eastward. At this time, the main low will remain just to the south along the Nebraska/Kansas border. This should keep the majority of the precipitation, not to mention severe potential, to the south and east. Some solutions still show some more organized convection developing across portions of southwest Nebraska by late evening. Current thinking is that these storms are not expected to be severe as the better instability and forcing remains to the southeast, some stronger wind gusts up to 50 mph or small hail cannot be ruled out. Overall, any precipitation we receive tonight and Wednesday morning will have limited QPF amounts... generally be under a quarter inch (0.25 inches), with up to a half inch (0.50 inches) possible in the heavier, more organized storms. The best potential to see any showers/storms will be between this evening, although some light showers may continue through sunrise. Lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms could continue into the early Wednesday morning hours, but overall coverage and intensity should diminish through the Wednesday morning hours and the main axis of precipitation moving off to the east through the afternoon.

For temperatures, increasing clouds and precipitation will drop temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s for Wednesday. Despite these cooler highs, they will still be nearly 10 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also remain slightly above normal tonight through Wednesday night in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 80 degrees to be near 100 percent for locations generally east of US-83. Increasing the probability to over 85 degrees, much of that same area still has a nearly 70 to 80 percent or higher probability. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT guidance, the EFI remain high (0.7 to 0.8), but SoT is fairly low. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very warm, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Thursday. Would even expect the going forecasted highs to rise another couple degrees over the next few days potentially into the mid to upper 80s for much of the region.

The drier conditions will be brief as the next system arrives Thursday night lasting into Saturday. An upper level trough will dig south along the Rockies Thursday night, pushing into the High Plains by Friday and into the central Plains by Saturday. This trough and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Thursday night across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east during the day Friday. There is still some uncertainty in precip type and where the rain/snow cut off line will be. For the most part, after a brief period of rain Thursday night, will expect mostly all snow across the Pine Ridge as temperatures remain cooler in this region. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s by Friday afternoon in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow or at least make accumulations more difficult. Further to the south and east, precipitation will start off as all rain, but as the trough pushes east and colder air behind it filters into the region, a gradual change over to snow is expected. Once the sun sets in the evening and temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. How much snow falls will be highly dependent on the precipitation track and if any precipitation will remain over our area by the time temperatures drop enough for snow to accumulate. Looking at the latest probabilities, the highest potential (over 50 percent) to see accumulating snow will be across the Pine Ridge and in areas mainly north and west of a Ogallala to Valentine line which seems to line up well with where the coldest temperatures are expected. Accumulations are still uncertain, but will continue to monitor this over the next few days.

Heading into the weekend, upper level ridging builds back across the western US with surface high pressure returning to the central Plains allowing for a dry weekend to prevail. There is some low end chance PoPs of some light lingering snow across portions of the Sandhills and into north central Nebraska on Saturday morning and early afternoon. Confidence is low in any precipitation development at this time and not expecting any significant impacts from snow if it does develop. Cold air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the 0 to -6 C range into Nebraska keeping highs only in the 50s on Saturday. Overnight lows will also remain chilly int he low to mid 20s both Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures gradually warm into the mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday and eventually back into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Some stronger northeast winds with gusts up to 25 knots are expected this afternoon across portions of southwest Nebraska. Otherwise, the main aviation concern will be the potential for some scattered rain showers across much of the region into tonight. Isolated showers will begin to impact portions of northern Nebraska and into the Panhandle by mid to late afternoon. Shower activity will slowly spread eastward into the evening and overnight hours. Main threats with these storms will be some minor visibility restrictions, small hail, and briefly gusty winds. Conditions gradually improve around sunrise Wednesday and through the morning hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.