textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain/snow chances increase tonight into Friday across northwest and northern Nebraska.

- Elevated fire weather concerns return to southwest Nebraska Friday and Saturday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A potent closed low is forecast to track from the northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Friday into Friday night. Mid-level warm air advection is increasing ahead of this feature across western Nebraska this afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates are also occurring across western Nebraska where full sunshine has been observed today. Weak instability is noted across the Panhandle early this afternoon as well as about 500 J/KG of DCAPE. Have started to see the development of cumulus and expecting scattered showers to develop late this afternoon and spread into western Nebraska this evening. Gusty winds and sporadic lightning will be the concern as the activity moves quickly east-northeastward. Appears there will be rainfall with the showers, so not overly concerned about dry lightning, but cannot be completely rule it out.

As the system crosses SD on Friday, showers are expected to continue across northern Nebraska as moisture wraps back around on the west and south side of the low. A strong cold front will cross the area with precipitation changing snow from northwest to southeast from late morning into the afternoon. Some wet snow accumulation is expected, especially in the higher elevation of the Pine Ridge, where up to around 1" is expected.

Another concern will be the elevated fire weather concerns across southwest Nebraska. Gusty northwest winds, mild temperatures, and low-humidity will create these conditions. Far southwest Nebraska did receive nearly 1/2" of rain last night into early this morning. Areas to the east though toward Hayes Center and Curtis received very little rainfall. Will monitor for any potential higher fire concerns, east of where the wetting rainfall occurred.

Windy conditions are expected Saturday in the wake of the system. Northwest gusts, greater than 45 mph, are likely across western Nebraska where boundary layer mixing will be better due a decrease in cloud cover. Again there is potential for fire weather concerns across southwest Nebraska and will continue to monitor.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 334 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

An upper level ridge starts to make its way into the region Sunday morning, aiding to warmer temperatures to start the new week. Highs are forecasted to reach the upper 50s to upper 60s Sunday. There is some elevated fire weather concerns in west-central and southwest NE with the warmer temperatures and humidities in the upper teens to low 20s, but the potential of gusty winds in this area remains low at this time.

There's a slight cooldown Monday with near normal highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s, but Tuesday returns to the warming trend with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. There remains slight chance of precipitation both Monday and Tuesday with PoPs peaking at 25 percent Tuesday morning. Confidence remains low at this time for any measurable precipitation during those two days.

Tuesday and especially Wednesday could bring about some elevated to near critical fire weather concerns. Ensemble guidance currently has a 50 to 70 percent chance of greater than 30 mph gusts in north- central NE. This overlaps with a region of low humidities in the mid 20s. Wednesday looks to be the peak of these warm, dry conditions lining up for when the upper ridge builds in. Highs that day will be in the low to upper 70s (10 to 15 degrees above normal) with a chance to crest 80 in far southwest NE. Humidities will drop to the mid teens to low 20s across much of the region, with a moderate chance (30 - 50 percent) of 30 - 40 mph gusts overlapping across north-central NE. We will continue to monitor and refine the forecast for if any headlines should be warranted.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Low stratus with IFR/MVFR CIGs will slowly exit off to the northeast this evening, with VFR returning briefly for all terminals. By tonight, low stratus expands across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, with widespread IFR CIGs expected. This low stratus will persist through the end of the valid period.

Winds become south then southeast overnight, at 10 to 15kts. Winds then become northwest by tomorrow afternoon, with gusts as high as 25 to 35kts across western and southwest Nebraska.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.