textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A combination of mild, dry, and breezy conditions will lead to near critical fire weather conditions across portions of western and north central Nebraska today.

- A threat for light snow is possible for areas east of Highway 83 Sunday. At this time, little to no accumulations are expected.

- High confidence in temperatures remaining near normal Monday before rising to above normal through Thursday.

- Low confidence in precipitation potential early in the week, but moderate confidence for rain/snow mid-week and again towards the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 216 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Currently, light south winds prevail across western and southwest Nebraska, with broad surface high pressure positioned off to the north and east. A backdoor cold front is positioned across portions of the northern Sandhills, with colder temperatures and northeast winds in place across north central Nebraska.

For today, the primary concern will revolve around elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across portions of western and southwest Nebraska. The aforementioned backdoor cold front will continue to slowly move south this morning, pushing through much of the Sandhills by late morning. This front is expected to stall near the I-80 corridor by early afternoon, leading to a wide range in high temperatures today. Behind the front, highs will struggle to leave the 40s to 50s, keeping any critical humidity concerns at bay. South of this front, highs again climb into the lower to middle 60s, and when combined with very dry air leads to humidity values in the 15 to 20 percent range. The threat for critical fire conditions looks to be brief tomorrow, with a limited overlap in the gustiest northwest winds (morning) and lowest humidity (afternoon). Northwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 miles per hour are possible through late morning ahead of the backdoor cold front. That said, very poor recovery this morning will lead to a quick onset in critical humidity, and a brief period (1-2 hours) of critical fire weather conditions are possible late morning across southwest Nebraska. Confidence in the longevity of this overlap precludes any Red Flag headlines at this time, though trends will need to be monitored closely.

By tonight, a quick moving shortwave will round the apex of a ridge positioned across the Intermountain West, ejecting into the Plains on Sunday morning. At the same time, a much colder airmass will quickly move south out of the northern Plains, overspreading much of the area through the day Sunday. As this airmass backs west against the higher terrain of Colorado/Wyoming, broad easterly upslope flow overspreads the area. This increased isentropic ascent may briefly lead to light snow east of Highway 83, before isentropic downglide begins to take over Sunday afternoon. Low level dry air looks to be difficult to overcome, especially with a lack of large scale lift indicated in the guidance suite. This points towards little to no snow accumulations at this time, and limited impacts are expected locally. This also leads to highs ranging from the upper 30s/low 40s east of Highway 83 to perhaps the middle 50s west of HWY 61, though this will depend on the position of the surface front.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 216 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Active weather continues into next week with several chances for precipitation through the end of the week. The latest forecast paints much of north central and western Nebraska with PoPs on Monday into Tuesday night. However, confidence remains low in this as models struggle to bring in and precipitation with zonal flow through Tuesday. Confidence begins to increase in precipitation by Wednesday as an upper level trough pushes through the Great Plains. This should provide enough support for some more widespread precipitation across the region. There's still some uncertainty in regards to precip type as temperatures remain warm enough for rain during the day, but drop below freezing at night switching precip over to snow.

Weak upper level ridging returns for Thursday keeping conditions dry. This will be short-lived, though, as the next developing upper level low arrives on Friday. As the low deepens and pushes through Nebraska. Precip type again remains a concern with the majority of the region seeing rain. Areas across the Pine Ridge will remain cooler and could see some rain/snow mix or all snow even during the day on Friday. In addition, there is a very low chance that there may be some freezing rain/freezing drizzle potential. Confidence remains very low in this though and for the most part has been removed from the forecast as a result. However, it is worth mentioning here. Will continue to monitor this over the next several days.

Temperatures will start off cooler on Monday ranging from the low 40s in the east to the mid 50s in the Panhandle. Highs will rise back into the 50s and low 60s through Friday. Overnight lows will generally remain in the low 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be out of the north around 5 to 10 kts with gust up to 20 kts across the northern Sandhills this afternoon. Winds then shift to the northeast this evening around 5 to 10 kts, then become southeast late Sunday morning, with wind gusts up to 20 kts across portions of western Nebraska into the northern Sandhills.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.