textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday across the eastern Sandhills and portions of north central Nebraska.

- Near critical-and possibly critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday across western portions of the forecast area. The main area of concern is west of highway 83. There may be fire weather concerns late in the week particularly Friday and Saturday.

- Well above seasonal temperatures are expected to last all week and into the weekend. Some uncertainty remains in the late week precipitation forecast, which will largely depend on a potential plume of Gulf moisture.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

H5 analysis this morning had an area of low pressure over northeastern Quebec. A shortwave trough extended southwest of this feature into southern Ontario around Lake Huron while a broad trough of low pressure extended southwest into the Tennessee Valley. Further west, a low amplitude ridge was present from eastern North Dakota into Manitoba. High pressure was anchored over Arizona with a ridge extending north into eastern Idaho. North of this ridge, a shortwave trough was present along the Alberta/Saskatchewan border, south to northern Montana. Gusty southwesterly winds had developed across most of western and north central Nebraska this afternoon with the exception of the northeastern Panhandle. Wind gusts were as high as 38 MPH at Broken Bow over the past hour. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 81 at Broken Bow, to 87 degrees at Ogallala.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The Alberta/Saskatchewan shortwave, mentioned above, will traverse southern Canada overnight ending up in southwestern Ontario and northern Minnesota by 12z Tuesday. This feature will force a cold front through the forecast area overnight. By 12z Tuesday, this feature is expected to reside from south central into far northeastern Nebraska. With the fropa overnight, decided to include a mention of light precipitation across far northern Nebraska. This is in line with the latest HRRR and NAM12 solns. With passage of the front overnight, winds will be decently mixed, leading to elevated temps tonight with lows mainly in the 50s across the area. The expected warmer temperatures also will limit RH recovery tonight to 50 to 60 percent. Tuesday will start out windy across the forecast area behind the exiting front. Winds will peak during the mid to late morning across western and southwestern Nebraska, then diminish slightly into the afternoon hours. Further east, wind speeds appear to peak later in the day, mainly during the afternoon hours. Highs Tuesday will range from the middle 70s in the north to around 80 in the south. The combination of winds and low relative humidity will lead to near-critical fire weather conditions across all of western and north central Nebraska. Low minimum RH~17 to 22 percent and good potential for wind gusts above 25 MPH exists during the afternoon hours in zone 209. After collaboration with our neighbors to the east, decided to hoist a fire weather watch for Tuesday afternoon in this zone. Elsewhere, the strongest winds preclude lowest RH so we should fall short of critical fire weather conditions for all but zone 209 Tuesday. Surface high pressure will build into Nebraska Tuesday night this will lead to lows in the lower 40s with light winds expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Surface high pressure will drop southeast into eastern Kansas Wednesday morning. Winds will shift to the south on the back side of this feature and will be gusty by afternoon, particularly in the western half of the forecast area. Decent low level warm air advection will surge north with the increased southerly winds, pushing highs into the middle 80s for Wednesday. With respect to winds Wednesday. The latest NBM ensemble forecast has a 90+ percent chance of wind gusts above 25 MPH Wednesday afternoon along and west of highway 83. When this threshold is increased to 40+ MPH, there is still a 70% chance of exceedance over the western Sandhills. The inherited forecast had minimum RH on the order of 15 to 20 percent Weds. afternoon in the west. If moisture return holds off until Wednesday night, and it appears that way with the latest NAM forecast this morning, we may need additional fire headlines across the western forecast area Wednesday afternoon.

Ridging aloft across the Rockies, will transition east Wednesday night with the ridge axis being oriented from Oklahoma, north into the eastern Dakotas Thursday morning. At the same time, a decent shortwave trough of low pressure will enter the northern Rockies of Montana and northwestern Wyoming. Downstream of this feature, a low level jet will develop Wednesday night from western Kansas into western Nebraska. Low level moisture is expected to surge north overnight with dew points reaching the middle to upper 40s across the area (per the latest NAM12 soln) by daybreak Thursday. Low level moisture advection will continue through midday with dew points possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s in a large portion of the forecast area. A decent mid level trough of low pressure will slide across the northern high plains Thursday. Further south, the GFS and NAM solns develop a dryline across the western third of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. Capping appears strong during the afternoon hours, but weakens somewhat by evening as colder air aloft enters western Nebraska early evening. This leads to some development of isolated thunderstorms Thursday evening across the area. The NBM initialized with slight chance and low end chance pops Thursday evening, mainly over the eastern half of the forecast area. This seems to be in good agreement with the location of the dryline at 00z, as depicted in the GFS and NAM12 solns. As for the severe threat Thursday evening, the latest NAM12 soln does indicate some modest SFC based CAPE's of 500 to 1000 J/KG along and east of highway 83. This area is co-located with decent low to mid level lapse rates and bulk layer shear of 25 to 35 KTS. There are parameters there to support a low end severe threat, but with dew points only in the lower 50s, and lacking deep layer moisture, feel the severe threat is marginal at best ATTM.

The shortwave trough will lift northeast into southern Canada Thursday night into Friday forcing the dryline well east of the area. Westerly winds will usher in drier air into the region for Friday. With highs expected to reach into the middle to upper 80s, minimum RH Friday afternoon will reach 10 to 20 percent across the forecast area. Westerly winds Friday are currently forecast in the 10 to 20 MPH range which would avoid any critical fire weather concerns. Low amplitude flow from the central plains west to the west coast will begin to amplify as a trough of low pressure deepens over the west coast of the CONUS Saturday. This will lead to the development of a surface trough across the high plains late Saturday. Increasing southerly winds will once again usher in low level moisture to the area. This low level moisture will persist across the area into the latter half of the weekend and Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 649 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

The main aviation concern will be strong LLWS with an approaching frontal boundary bringing an abrupt wind shift followed by continued gusty winds. LLWS will peak early this evening with 45 knot magnitudes over northern Nebraska including the VTN terminal. A frontal boundary will arrive close to Midnight in the north including VTN with a 3-4 hours delay for southwest Nebraska including LBF.

Winds will become sustained out of the north for the remainder of the period once the front arrives. Gusts will peak towards midday Tuesday, nearing 30 knots, with gradual decreases by late afternoon appearing likely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Over the next 60 hours, two areas of concern are noted for critical fire weather concerns. The first area is Tuesday afternoon, mainly over zone 209. Gusty northwest winds behind an exiting cold front will couple with a dry post frontal airmass, producing critical RH around 20 percent with wind gusts reaching 35 MPH. Further west Tuesday, stronger winds behind the front peak during the mid to late morning hours. These winds in the west will preclude the lowest RH values. With this occurring, most of the forecast area will avoid critical fire weather conditions Tuesday. By Wednesday, strong southerly winds will over the western half of the forecast area. This area of concern is generally west of a line from Valentine to North Platte. Minimum RH in all locations ranges from 17 to 22 percent across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. However, winds will drop off quickly east of highway 83 as these areas will be under the influence of exiting high pressure. Friday will feature critical minimum RH behind an exiting disturbance, however, winds are forecast to remain below RFW criteria. Southerly winds will increase on Saturday across the area with highs forecast in the mid 80s to around 90. Minimum RH Saturday afternoon reaches 15 to 20 percent across the area with decent potential for wind gusts exceeding 25 MPH. This will lead to, at a minimum, near-critical fire weather conditions across the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NEZ209.