textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire conditions across the northwest Sandhills this afternoon. Near-critical to potentially critical fire conditions Friday afternoon near and west of Highway 83.

- A threat for isolated strong to severe storms in the east late Friday afternoon and evening.

- Low to moderate confidence in showers and thunderstorms bringing widespread rainfall across portions of north central Nebraska this weekend.

- Cooler temperatures expected early next week with highs in the mid to upper 70s across western and north central Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

This morning through the afternoon, a subtle disturbance in northwest flow aloft this morning may produce ACCAS clouds, and even isolated light rain showers. About 500J/kg CAPE indicated above 700mb during the morning. Weak capping will return by afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm or two may develop mid to late afternoon in southwest Nebraska, where weak low level convergence exists, as shown by a few of the CAMs.

Surface low pressure will deepen from eastern Montana into eastern Wyoming today. This will bring a tightening surface pressure gradient, with a gusty south to southwest wind of 15 to 30 mph with some gusts to 35 mph across the Sandhills. This will also bring a warmup into the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 across the western and northwest Sandhills. This will also bring elevated fire weather conditions across the northwest Sandhills. Details found in the Fire Weather Section below.

Tonight, south to southwest winds will continue at 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph across the north central. This will keep low mild in the lower to mid 60s.

Friday, surface low pressure will deepen and move east across South Dakota. A trailing surface trough across western Nebraska will move east, with westerly winds behind the trough and southwest winds ahead of it. Winds will again range from 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s throughout the area. Near-critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday afternoon mainly near and east of Highway 83. Details found in the Fire Weather Section below. A conditional threat for late afternoon strong to severe thunderstorms also exists. Moderate instability with SBCAPEs from 2000-3000J/kg will exist with a weak cap remaining in place through the afternoon. This should inhibit thunderstorm development in the afternoon. However, if the cap were to break, an isolated storm or two could quickly become severe.

Friday evening and overnight, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by early evening near and east of the surface trough near Eustis through Broken Bow and O'Neill. Deep layer shear will be adequate at 30-35kts. Any storms could be strong to severe, with an isolated threat for large hail and damaging winds. storms will push southeast of the area by mid evening. A cold front will drop through overnight, with a low chance for thunderstorms in the southeast overnight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A cold front passing through late Friday night to possibly early Saturday morning will bring a nice reprieve from the hot weather. Daytime highs Saturday are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s across western and north central Nebraska. a deep upper level low will make landfall onto the Pacific Northwest sometime early Sunday morning. This will dig into what was generally zonal upper flow and creating a ridging pattern ahead, over the Northern Plains. The riding will allow high pressure to settle into Nebraska and promote warmer temperatures with southwest flow. Sunday highs are expected to be in the mid to uppers 80s across southwest Nebraska and in the mid to upper 70s across North Central. The southwest flow aloft will also bring an influx of moisture from the eastern Pacific. PWATs are expected to climb to over 1.00" and central to eastern Nebraska could see that rise to 1.5". This would put the area in well over the 95th percentile climatologically for the year. As such, the prospect of widespread wetting rainfall remains possible. NBM remains fairly aggressive with 40 to 50% probabilities of areas north of I80 and along/west of Highway 83 seeing >0.25" rainfall Sunday through Monday morning. LREF is a bit more bullish with the same area seeing 20 to 40% probabilities. Regardless, with mean MUCAPE being 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg, there remains the possibility for rainfall to come in the way of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. This possibility will be something to watch for in the coming days as the forecast continues to be refined.

As the upper trough from the Pacific Northwest traverses past the Rockies and reaches the northern Plains around Monday afternoon, daytime highs next week will feel "fall like". Daytime highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s Monday through Wednesday for the CWA. To accompany the cooler temperatures will be mostly dry forecast until mid week where a shortwave could further bring some precipitation potential.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Skies continue to clear early Thursday morning as clouds depart to the east. Towards daybreak, low clouds become possible and could impact both KLBF and KVTN. Have covered with SCT mention around 3500 ft. HREF probabilities keep lower CIG potential to the west with decreasing probability through mid/late morning. Otherwise, expect largely clear skies for the bulk of the daytime as winds gust out of the south/southwest around 20 to 25 knots. Strong wind shear will develop Thursday evening and have included a mention of LLWS at both sites in the forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 153 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon and early evening across the northwest Sandhills (Fire Zone 204). Afternoon humidity will fall to as low as 15 percent, mainly west of a Cody through Lewellen line. Southwest winds are expected to be marginal. HREF probability for winds above 20 mph is only 10 percent or less.

Near-critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday afternoon and early evening for areas near and west of Highway 83. West northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph will combine with afternoon humidity as low as 13 to 20 percent. Fuels have become receptive to large fire growth, and any fires which start could spread quickly. A cold front will will bring a wind shift to the north during the evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.