textproduct: North Platte

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Tonight, attention turns to the potential for sub-freezing temperatures and the ongoing Freeze Warning across portions of western and southwest Nebraska. Today's storm system will quickly move east of the area, with height rises developing behind the departing system. This will allow an area of surface high pressure to build across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma, resulting in southwesterly flow at the surface. While the Freeze Warning remains in effect, there are still several uncertainties that could limit widespread freezing to sub freezing temperatures. First, an increasing low level jet overnight should keep winds from going completely calm. Second, recent rainfall may result in higher low level moisture, limiting radiational cooling potential. Lastly, westerly low level flow will promote downslope warming, with 850 mb temperatures remaining in the 6 to 9C range overnight. Looking at ensemble guidance, the HREF shows very low probabilities for widespread sub-freezing temperatures, while the NBM continues to indicate probabilities above 80 percent within the Freeze Warning area. Overall, confidence in widespread freezing temperatures remains somewhat low. Farther north and east across central and north central Nebraska, milder temperatures are expected, and sub- freezing temperatures appear unlikely.

Thursday, northwest flow aloft will develop across the region as the upper level ridge expands across the western United States. Downslope flow off the Rockies will support warming temperatures, with 850 mb temperatures rising into the 14 to 18C range. This will lead to highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. The downslope flow will also promote drier conditions, with relative humidity values potentially falling to around 20 percent across portions of central Nebraska Thursday afternoon. At this time, winds gusting 20 to 25 mph should prelude any greater fire weather concerns at this time. However, if the low level jet strengthens more than currently forecast or downslope enhancement becomes greater, stronger winds could increase the fire weather threat. This will continue to be monitored. Late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, a shortwave trough diving southeast along the eastern periphery of the western ridge will provide increasing mid and upper level lift. Steepening lapse rates may support isolated thunderstorm development, especially across western Nebraska. Low MUCAPE and weak mid-level shear should keep the severe threat low. With increasing low and mid-level moisture accompanying this disturbance, the potential for wetting rainfall will also increase. While uncertainty remains regarding shower/thunderstorm coverage and placement, CAM guidance does suggest spotty QPF amounts exceeding 0.15 inches across portions of the Sandhills.

Friday, drier conditions will return as strengthening northwest flow aloft remains over the region. Clearing skies will support high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the area. Fire weather concerns should remain low, though relative humidity values may fall to around 20 percent across portions of central Nebraska. Despite the lower RH values, lighter winds should limit the overall fire weather threat, though elevated fire weather conditions may still be possible.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Northwest flow aloft will dominate the weather scene during the Saturday through Tuesday timeframe. A shortwave disturbance will translate southeastward across the High Plains Saturday within the flow. A weak area of surface low pressure will develop across western Nebraska Saturday and then shift southeast into Kansas Saturday night. The combination of a limited amount of Gulf moisture and a decent amount of mid and upper level moisture will push PWATS to around 135% of normal prior to any precipitation development. Showers are likely to develop during the afternoon into the evening as mid-level FGEN develops behind a cold front that passes through the area Saturday afternoon. A limited amount of CAPE should allow for some thunder, mainly across southwest Nebraska late Saturday afternoon. Overall rainfall amounts mainly look light, with overall probabilities only marginal for a tenth of an inch. However, the precipitation will be showery in nature so spottier heavier amounts will be possible.

Temperatures really begin to warm Monday as ridging begins to build across the Rockies. Heights rise beneath the northwest flow aloft with H7 temperatures rising several degrees. Return southerly flow at the surface will bring some limited Gulf moisture back northward across the area, with potential for lower to mid 50s dew points reaching central Nebraska by afternoon. This area will be on the edge of the warmer H7 temperatures off to the west, and could see isolated thunderstorm development along a surface trough that will mix eastward Monday afternoon into the deeper low-level moisture. Sounding profiles would support supercell development and potential for large hail. Limiting factor is the lack of much upper-level forcing for development. Will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Scattered to broken cumulus this afternoon will dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Thereafter skies should be clear. VFR conditions are expected all areas with surface winds this afternoon through tonight at 15 kts or less.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ022-035>037-056>059-069>071.