textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances expected to start in earnest this evening across the region as tropical moisture arrives, with potentially heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. With heavy rainfall possible, a Flood Watch has been issued for southwest and central Nebraska.

- Rain chances begin to wane Thursday into the weekend. Cooler than seasonal highs are expected across the region from Thursday through early next week.

- Thursday night into Friday morning, expect a return to more seasonal lows, with lows in the low to mid 40s. Lows are expected to remain in the 40s through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

An upper level trough continues to dig south across the western United States, as Hurricane Polo begins to take on its northeastward track. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the plume of moisture from the remnants of Odalys tracking across Colorado and western Nebraska this afternoon. The 18z KLBF sounding shows the layer of deep moisture advection aloft, with PWAT values already exceeding the 90th percentile for late September. A surface low pressure system remains over western South Dakota, firmly placing our region in the warm sector of the system. Strong southerly surface winds are observed this afternoon, with gusts up to 30 mph across most of western and north central Nebraska. A few showers are already ongoing across northern Nebraska this afternoon, but have remained lower end precipitation so far. By tonight, a cold front tracks eastward, which should provide the lift for more widespread showers and thunderstorm activity. With all the deep, tropical moisture in play, rainfall amounts could get heavy at times, with most of the area likely to receive at least wetting rainfall. Across the Sandhills and into north central Nebraska, amounts could reach as high as half an inch to an inch overnight into Tuesday morning. However, with thunderstorms also expected in the mix, there is potential for even higher local amounts.

Tuesday, Hurricane Polo begins to interact with the upper level trough, which will quickly weaken the storm and bring another plume of tropical moisture across the Plains. As the low across the Dakotas slowly tracks east, another low pressure system is expected to develop and deepen off the Front Range of the Rockies and slowly lift north. With all the surface convergence between the two systems, rainfall is likely to continue across western and north central Nebraska. By Tuesday night, as the deeper moisture begins to arrive from Polo, rain chances continue, with chances for heavy rainfall continuing. As the tropical moisture arrives in earnest on Wednesday, expect rain to continue through the day, lasting into the nighttime hours. Rain could again remain heavy at times.

There still remains some level of uncertainty in where the heaviest bands of precipitation will set up over the next few days, given disagreement in the southern extent of a northern jet stream. If the jet stream remains slightly further north, as some guidance suggests, we may see heaviest precipitation setting up along southwest and central Nebraska, including the I-80 corridor. However, if the northern jet sags slightly further south, this could push the bulk of precipitation just to the south and east. With the uncertainty still looming, have decided to keep forecast more in line with ensemble guidance. While there is very high confidence in precipitation totals through Thursday night exceeding 2 inches to the south and east of us, there is still around a 40 percent chance of our area exceeding 2 inches, primarily along and south of Interstate 80. Ensembles remain fairly optimistic in an area south of an Ogallala to Thedford to O'Neill line exceeding one inch through Thursday, however. With ample deep layer moisture in place, and PWATs exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology, still think that there is strong potential for heavy rainfall through Thursday morning. With this unusual set up bringing ample tropical moisture across the region and heavy rainfall expected, have collaborated with neighboring offices on issuing a Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday evening across southwest and central Nebraska. Areas of greatest concern will remain lower lying areas, including canyons and dry creek beds, which may be prone to flooding and flash flooding. However, if the forecast changes slightly, there may be need for a slight northern expansion. Make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast information over the next several days.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Rain chances begin to wind down Thursday morning into the afternoon hours, as an upper level low pushes south of the region. While this may keep rain chances continuing to the east, confidence lowers on wrap around precipitation continuing across our region. Worth remembering that the Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday evening, as waters may take time to recede if flooding occurs.

With the upper level low remaining to the south, guidance continues to suggest the low will bring in a mass of cooler, Canadian air across the region. This cooler air mass is expected to bring temperatures below seasonal average, with highs remaining in the 60s into the weekend. As a slight push of warmer air occurs on Saturday, may briefly see highs reach the lower 70s, but for the most part, expecting 60s into early next week. For reference, early October, we typically see highs around 71 to 73 degrees with lows around 40 to 42 degrees. So, even if we do see a slight temperature increase on Saturday, expecting it would mostly remain near climatological normal. However, brace for the more seasonal low temperatures to return near the end of the week. We have mostly remained well above our seasonal normal lows in large part to the higher dewpoints overnight. Thursday night into Friday morning, widespread lows are expected to be in the low to mid 40s, and while not unusual for October, still about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than we have been experiencing. For now, forecast trends indicate that we should be near to slightly above seasonal with our lows through the weekend, with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Again, while not unusual for October, folks with outdoor plants and animals sensitive to cooler temperatures may want to pay attention to this change in the pattern. Forecast trends continue to suggest that we may finally be seeing more frequent fall like weather late this week into next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Expect mainly broken to overcast skies over the next 24 hours at both terminals. Ceilings will generally range from 2500 to 4000 Ft AGL this evening into Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, ceilings will climb to around 4000 FT AGL for the KLBF terminal and up to 10000 FT AGL for the KVTN terminal. There will be a threat for rain with embedded thunderstorms for the KVTN terminal this evening with a threat for showers overnight at both terminals. Within the showers, visibilities may be reduced to around 5SM at times, especially at the KVTN terminal where heavier intensity rainfall is possible. Winds will be from the south tonight with a shift to the west, then northwest during the afternoon on Tuesday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday evening for NEZ038-058-059-069>071.