textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, especially across north-central and central Nebraska, with large to very large hail and damaging winds the primary threats. Significant wind gusts of 75 mph or greater are possible.

- Additional thunderstorm chances persist Friday through early next week, though the severe threat and coverage will vary each day.

- Hot temperatures return this weekend, with Saturday the hottest day. Highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s, low humidity, and gusty winds may also result in elevated fire weather conditions across western Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This afternoon into the evening, the severe weather threat remains on track across much of the area. Southerly low-level flow is maintaining increased moisture across the region early this afternoon. Some mixing of surface dew points may occur through peak heating, though ample low-level moisture should remain to support considerable instability. Current satellite imagery shows a mid to upper-level disturbance moving across Montana into Wyoming, which will continue southeast along the northern periphery of an upper- level ridge centered across the southwestern United States. Increasing large-scale ascent associated with this disturbance, combined with strengthening low-level convergence, should provide sufficient forcing for thunderstorm development initially across the Black Hills and southwest South Dakota this afternoon. Across the forecast area, the severe weather environment remains quite favorable for this time of year. SBCAPE values of 3000 to 3500 J/kg are forecast across portions of north-central Nebraska. ECAPE values are also quite favorable, suggesting that the combination of instability and the wind profile will support strong, sustained updrafts capable of efficiently utilizing the available buoyancy. Deep-layer shear will also be favorable for organized convection, with 0-6 km bulk shear around 40 to 45 knots. Forecast hodographs show some low-level curvature, particularly as the low-level jet strengthens this evening, while the mid and upper portions of the hodograph remain relatively long and largely characterized by speed shear. Current thinking is that thunderstorms developing across southwest South Dakota will initially favor discrete supercells before moving southeast into north-central Nebraska within the northwest flow regime. These initial supercells will be capable of producing large to very large hail given the combination of strong instability, favorable ECAPE, and sufficient deep-layer shear. Previous analogs and similar synoptic patterns also lend support to the potential for significant hail. With time, storm interactions should favor upscale growth into one or more line segments as convection moves southeast into western and central Nebraska. This transition would favor an increasing damaging wind threat. Significant wind gusts of 75 mph or greater will be possible given DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg, steep low-level lapse rates, and favorable 0-3 km delta theta-e values supporting strong downdraft potential. The tornado threat remains low, but is not zero. Strengthening of the low-level jet this evening should result in increasing low-level SRH and greater hodograph curvature. Any supercell that can remain discrete could briefly take advantage of this environment. However, forecast 4-6 km storm-relative winds remain relatively parallel to the initiating boundary, which should encourage storm interactions and upscale growth, limiting the overall tornado potential. The SPC has expanded the Slight Risk across portions of the area and has reintroduced a hatched significant wind area in addition to the existing significant hail area, which aligns well with the expected evolution. Current guidance moves the primary convective activity east of the forecast area by around midnight CDT, with predominantly dry conditions expected into early Friday morning.

Friday, the upper-level ridge across the southwestern United States will amplify and gradually shift eastward through the day. Another weak disturbance is forecast to move along the northeastern periphery of the ridge Friday afternoon into the evening. Ample instability will remain across the area, though the strongest deep- layer shear is forecast to remain farther north across the Dakotas. This should favor more scattered convection across the forecast area, with thunderstorm development also dependent on whether the cap can be overcome during the afternoon. Another opportunity for convection may develop Friday evening into the overnight as thunderstorms originating across South Dakota move south into north- central Nebraska. The SPC currently highlights this area in a Marginal Risk. At this time, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall appear to be the primary threats, though forecast trends will continue to be monitored. Southerly winds will also strengthen through the day, resulting in gusty conditions across much of the area. Highs Friday will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with overnight lows remaining in the lower to middle 60s.

Saturday, the upper-level ridge will continue shifting eastward into the south-central United States. This will establish southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer, resulting in stronger warm air advection across the region. Forecast 850-mb temperatures rise into the 30 to 35C range, which is well above normal for this time of year. Strong daytime mixing should allow much of this warmth to reach the surface, making Saturday the hottest day of the forecast period. Highs are expected to reach the middle 90s to lower 100s. Given the recent dry conditions across southwest Nebraska, temperatures may ultimately trend even warmer across this area. The combination of hot temperatures, minimum relative humidity values falling below 25 percent, and gusty southwest winds approaching 25 mph may result in elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon, particularly west of Highway 61. Another weak disturbance may move through the region Saturday evening into the overnight hours, providing another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms, especially across north-central Nebraska where stronger upper-level flow will reside. At this time, the organized severe weather threat appears relatively low, though this will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Sunday, a strong 597-dam 500-mb upper-level ridge will remain centered across the south-central United States, while a trough remains across the western United States. This will maintain broad west to southwest flow aloft across the region. Warm conditions will persist as 850-mb temperatures remain in the 25 to 30C range, supporting afternoon highs generally in the lower to middle 90s. Despite somewhat stronger flow aloft, precipitation chances should remain relatively low Sunday as warm mid-level temperatures and associated capping limit convective development. Overnight temperatures will remain quite mild, with lows generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Monday, the upper-level ridge is forecast to flatten and shift farther into the southeastern United States as a weak shortwave ejects northeastward from the western longwave trough. An associated frontal boundary is expected to move southeast across the region during the day, bringing cooler temperatures with highs ranging from the middle 80s north to upper 80s south. Increasing large-scale forcing and low-level convergence along the boundary should also result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Monday afternoon into the evening. Severe weather may be possible given the potential overlap of sufficient instability and stronger deep-layer shear. However, confidence in the magnitude and location of the threat remains low at this range.

Tuesday into late next week, the western United States trough will attempt to progress eastward while the upper-level ridge across the southeastern United States begins to reamplify and expand westward. This evolution should maintain relatively warm conditions, with highs returning to around 90 degrees or the lower 90s by the middle and latter portions of next week. Periodic precipitation chances will remain possible, though the timing and coverage will depend heavily on the strength and track of individual disturbances moving through the flow. Overall, the long-term pattern favors the better opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend into early next week, followed by a trend toward warmer and drier conditions by Wednesday into the latter part of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all terminals through tomorrow afternoon. By this evening, isolated to widely scattered storms are possible across much of western and eventually southwest Nebraska, with a threat for brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. These storms exit the area tonight, though additional thunderstorm development is possible across north central Nebraska early tomorrow morning.

Winds remain southerly today and tonight, at 10 to 15kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.