textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A combination of mild temperatures, very dry conditions, and gusty northwest winds will lead to critical fire weather concerns across all of western and north central Nebraska today. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are again expected on Sunday, due to a combination of warm temperatures and very dry conditions.

- Near critical or critical fire weather concerns appear they will develop Monday. Possibly Wednesday as well.

- At least some chance for a strong or perhaps severe storm later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 406 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Currently, clear skies and weakening winds is allowing for efficient radiational cooling across all of western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures have fallen into the middle 20s to lower 30s early this morning.

As surface high pressure quickly exits off to the southeast, northwest winds strengthen across the area in response. Flow aloft remains somewhat strong (H7-H85 winds ~35-40kts), as a deep upper trough continues to slowly move east away from the area across the upper Great Lakes into eastern Canada. This downsloping wind will promote strengthening warm advection, along with ample diurnal mixing this afternoon. As this deeper mixing is achieved, the higher momentum flow aloft will be promoted downwards and lead to gusts as high as 35 to 45 miles per hour this afternoon. Unfortunately this will combine with relative humidity falling as low as 12 to 20 percent despite temperatures only climbing into the 50s to low 60s. This combination of mild, dry, and windy conditions will lead to a period of critical fire weather concerns this afternoon. Opted to expand the inherited Red Flag Warning to include the remainder of the CWA (added Fire Weather Zone 208 in north central NE), as the strong winds look more than adequate despite marginal (~18-22%) expected minimum humidity values.

Weak surface high pressure then returns to the area tonight, again leading to weakening winds and efficient radiational cooling under clear skies. Another cold night looks to be on tap, with lows falling into the middle 20s to lower 30s across the area. Again, precautions should be made to protect any sensitive outdoor vegetation.

Temperatures warm further on Sunday, as southerly flow begins to return to the area by Sunday afternoon. This meager warm advection will boost highs back into the 60s to lower 70s, with the warmest highs across southwest Nebraska. As with this afternoon, the very dry airmass will push minimum humidity values into the upper single digits to teens for much of western and southwest Nebraska. That said, winds look to be much weaker, and this precludes any fire weather headlines for now. Trends will continue to be monitored, though at least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns can be expected yet again Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 406 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

A ridge breakdown occurs Monday, a classic set-up for near or critical fire weather concerns. This appears to be the case, as gusty southwest winds combine with humidity well below 20% and highs climbing into the 80s. Fire weather headlines will likely be needed, especially for areas north of I-80 where winds will be strongest.

The ridge aloft builds northward once again Tuesday, with the axis centered over the western High Plains. Again, it will be a very warm day with low humidity, but with the the lack of much of a surface pressure gradient, winds appear to remain on the lighter side, which should limit the overall fire weather concerns.

An upper level trough approaches the area from the west Wednesday. Surface low pressure will deepen in response across eastern Colorado/Wyoming. A very warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Gusty south winds can be expected as the deepening surface low to the west tightens the surface pressure gradient across the region. Appears to be another potential set-up for fire weather concerns. One difference Wednesday is that low- level moisture/humidity will be on the increase, with dew points possibly climbing into the lower and middle 50s by afternoon. This higher humidity could limit a critical fire weather threat.

Attention then turns to thunderstorm potential later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Surface instability will increase along the Highway 83 corridor where surface dew points appear to be maximized. A rather narrow corridor of better moisture though, with the dry line and lower dew points to the west, and to the east, the moisture/humidity appear to be more shallow. Both operational runs of the 18/00Z GFS and ECMWF initiate convection around Highway 61 across far western Nebraska near the dry line. This activity then tracks eastward Wednesday evening. Some question as to how far east with the shallower moisture. Nevertheless, there appears to be a window for a potential supercell or two initiating off the dryline. Sounding profiles would be supportive of hail, and potentially even a developing tornado threat during the evening as the low- level jet increases. This will highly depend on the location of the better moisture axis, and if enough low-level moisture/humidity can return northward, which has been a struggle for our area so far this year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska. Broken ceilings at 7K feet AGL will develop with heating across much of the area then dissipate early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Gusty northwest winds will develop this morning and continue through this afternoon at 20-30 kts then decrease quickly this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 406 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Today will bring a return to critical for conditions. Highs will warm back into the 50s with afternoon humidity very low, ranging from around 13-16% across the southern Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, with 19-22% across northern Nebraska. Strong northwest winds will develop as deep mixing quickly develops by mid-morning. Gusts up to around 40 mph can be expected from late this morning through this afternoon. Winds decrease quickly and become light tonight with overall poor humidity recovery.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208>210-219. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.