textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence rain showers through through the morning.

- High confidence in patchy to areas of fog across through mid to late morning.

- Low confidence in rain returning tonight into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward throughout the overnight hours. Embedded thunderstorms are also possible, but stronger or severe storms is not anticipated at this time. Additional QPF through sunrise will generally remain less than one tenth (0.10) of an inch, although, some locations across northern Nebraska could see some heavier showers with up to 0.20 inches.

Increased moisture and calm winds will also allow for fog development to continue across the region through mid-morning. Visibility restrictions down to 1 mile will be possible at times, but should remain fairly patchy, especially impacting low lying areas and river valleys. Rapidly changing visibilities should be expected before dissipating by late morning.

Weak ridging will allow for a brief dry period during the day today and into early evening. Isolated showers are expected to develop off the Front Range and push into southwest Nebraska late this evening. There is a potential for some convection as well as showers, but instability remains fairly weak across southwest Nebraska and into the Panhandle. Therefore, not expecting any severe storms.

A better potential for showers arrives on Tuesday as a low pressure system over Kansas develops. Being on the northern fringe of this low, not expecting any thunderstorms or severe weather. The majority of any precipitation associated with this system will be stratiform in nature with QPF amounts generally under a quarter inch. There is even a potential for some light snow across the Pine Ridge early Tuesday before temperatures rise back above freezing. Any accumulations will be under a half inch, but confidence in even getting that is very low. Any precipitation will diminish Tuesday evening as surface high pressure builds back into the region. With clearing skies Tuesday night, low temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s across the region. Not anticipating any freeze headlines at this time, but will continue to be monitored.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Northwest flow establishes aloft into Wednesday, with an upper trough moving southeast out of the Intermountain West and towards the Four Corners. With the track of this trough well off to the west of the area Wednesday into Thursday, guidance suggests any precipitation will remain confined to portions of western and southwest Nebraska. NBM probabilities continue to support this notion, with probabilities of >0.10" Wednesday into Thursday peaking at ~30-50% along and south of I-80. Forecast soundings support an all rain p-type, and limited MUCAPE (~100-200 J/kg) suggest a threat for isolated thunderstorms as well. Any precipitation is expected to exit Thursday evening, with drier conditions returning for the weekend and late week.

Heights begin to rise aloft by Friday, as an upper ridge axis begins to translate east into the Plains by Saturday. This upper ridge remains in place through Sunday, before guidance begins to differ in synoptic evolution into early next week. With the area remaining under the influence of this upper ridging, temperatures quickly moderate back into the 70s by Saturday and Sunday. The return of these warmer temperatures will push humidity values back into the upper teens to 20s each afternoon this weekend, and could bring a return of elevated fire weather concerns to the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Low stratus will persist across much of western Nebraska over the next 24 hours, with low-end VFR conditions giving way to potential IFR/LIFR early Tuesday as light precipitation works in from the southwest.

Expect gusty winds to persist into Monday evening before falling below 10 knots and eventually becoming more variable at less than 5 knots. Watching light precipitation in the form of predominantly rain but a few areas of -SN arrive from the southwest. Relied on HREF/HRRR timing into LBF with arrival prior to dawn and at least light activity continuing through the end of the period. Hi resolution guidance suggests high enough intensity to lead to LIFR visibilities but will defer until confidence in timing/magnitude increases before mentioning. For VTN, confidence is lower in seeing impacts prior to the end of the period so will only keep a VCSH mention at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.