textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms will be the focus Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Tornadoes will be possible, in addition to large hail and damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall will become a concern Saturday evening. - Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms may continue through Sunday and much of next week as an active northwest flow pattern remains in place.

- Temperatures cool into the 70s Sunday and Monday before warming back into the 80s by the middle of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Mid-level warm air advection will be on the increase later tonight and through the day Friday. Elevated instability begins to increase late tonight and continues into Friday. It appears that isolated to widely scattered showers/thunder will develop across portions of southwest into south central and central Nebraska by late tonight. This activity may tend to increase through the day Friday as the the warm air advection increases. A couple of the stronger cores could produce hail, but this seems to be more likely to occur across south central portions of the state. This is conditional depending on how much development actually occurs. Some recent runs of the high-res convection allowing models don't signal much happening.

The focus then turns to Saturday as a long wave trough moves into the Intermountain west by Saturday morning. Surface low pressure will deepen through the day across eastern Colorado as the wave approaches. Higher theta-e air will continue to move northward as the low strengthens. Surface dew points will be rising into the 60s by Saturday afternoon. The moisture will be deep, with PWATS rising to near 1.6" along the I-80 corridor. This is near the daily all time maximum for this time of year. Low-level flow will back to the southeast across the area as instability increases through the day. As large scale lift overspreads the area, supercells should develop by late afternoon across the higher terrain to the west. MCS development during the evening is likely across much of western and north central Nebraska as the activity moves east off the higher terrain. A strong southerly low-level jet will increase during the evening with the tornado threat increasing, especially near a warm front, which most models have located somewhere in the vicinity of I- 80 across southwest Nebraska. As mentioned the airmass will be very moist, and heavy rainfall will be a concern in addition to the severe weather. In fact, WPC has introduced a moderate risk area for excessive rainfall which clips portions of southeast Custer county. The rest of central and southwest Nebraska are in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. This seems reasonable given the ensemble probabilities of a 50-70% chance of 1" or more of rainfall.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Sunday, deep low-level moisture will remain across the area ahead of another mid-level disturbance moving in from the west. Mid-level frontogenesis combined with differential positive vorticity advection should provide sufficient lift for thunderstorm development across the western and northern Sandhills Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. In terms of severe weather potential, adequate low-level moisture, moderate instability, and 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear will support an increasing potential for more severe weather. Currently, hail appears to be the primary severe threat, as forecast hodographs remain fairly straight and the overall synoptic pattern is supportive of large hail. This threat will continue to be monitored over the coming days. High temperatures Sunday will be cooler across the area, ranging from the upper 60s across northern Nebraska to the upper 70s across southwest Nebraska. Lows Sunday night will generally remain in the 50s.

Monday, west to northwest flow aloft will persist across the region. This will maintain a cooler pattern, with highs generally in the low to mid 70s. Another weak disturbance may provide sufficient lift for thunderstorms to develop west of the area Monday evening before moving eastward. Severe weather may once again be possible, though confidence remains low given the extended forecast range. Lows Monday night will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area.

Tuesday and beyond, northwest flow aloft will continue across the region as an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes sends periodic disturbances southeastward through late next week. Better precipitation chances on Tuesday likely remain south of the area, where deeper moisture is expected to reside across Kansas. By midweek, increasing moisture advection and periodic disturbances moving through the northwest flow pattern may provide additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance continue to indicate this potential. Confidence remains low regarding the timing and coverage of any precipitation, but overall the pattern favors periodic thunderstorm chances through the middle and latter portions of next week. Temperatures are expected to remain in the lower to middle 80s through much of the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through Friday. A mid-level cloud deck will develop tonight, especially across central and northern Nebraska. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 kts today and decrease and become less than 10 kts tonight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.