textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- General seasonable temperatures continue through Friday before a warm-up arrives this weekend.

- Precipitation chances will largely be limited to two windows: late Thursday night into Friday (15-30% favoring south of I-80) and Monday into Tuesday (up to 50%).

- Breezy conditions are likely, beginning this weekend and continuing through the middle of next week with gusts around 25 to 35 mph each day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Early today, cool conditions were noted across portions of western and central Nebraska. Morning lows fell into the middle 20s to middle 30s with the former of these settling around 5-10F below normal. This was largely attributed to clear skies and passing high pressure which allowed winds to go calm during the overnight. Through this afternoon, this high pressure will shift slightly to the east. Aloft, modest shortwave ridging will track east out of the Great Basin as large scale troughing stalls over southeast Canada and the next shortwave disturbance moves towards the Four Corners region.

This afternoon, skies remain clear to mostly clear. Temperatures have warmed quickly as a result with winds generally reporting 10 mph or less. Overall, a fairly nice late October day. Given fairly mild temperatures and dry air associated with the high pressure, will see afternoon humidity values drop but the lack of stronger winds will preclude greater fire weather concerns.

Tonight, high pressure will settle just east and allow a gradual return to southeasterly flow. Ridge axis will translate east across the Front Range, but should breakdown as shortwave trough and associated h5 low continues to push east towards the Four Corners. As this occurs, an influx of mid and high level moisture will overspread the area. This should at least introduce partly to mostly cloudy skies albeit passing high clouds. Though a LLJ appears likely to develop over our far western zones overnight, do believe at least in sheltered valleys that temperatures should once again fall quickly. Did decrease overnight lows as a result using a blend of NBM25 and MET/MAV guidance. The result is fairly widespread upper 20s to lower 30s. With all forecast zones having seen freezing conditions already, no cold weather headlines (Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning) are expected.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 350 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Thursday and Friday...embedded mid-level disturbance will track out of the Four Corners region, crossing the Continental Divide and spilling onto the Central and Southern Plains late Thursday into Friday. Ahead of this, southerly flow will advect richer mid-level moisture into the region. This will begin as increasing clouds late Thursday which may be able to hold values into the lower 60s for most. Trends continue to carry the greatest upper-level dynamics...upper-level divergence, mid-level height falls, DCVA...well south of the area closer to I-70. This is resulting in lower coverage of PoPs and decreasing QPF. Most recent EPS/GEFS probabilities are absent of any potential for exceeding 0.1" above 10%. Will continue to carry low-end PoPs, primarily late Thursday night through the first half of the day Friday, for south of I-80 where deterministic solutions still paint some rainfall. Though rainfall potential has decreased, general southeasterly flow originating from areas of heavier rain/thunderstorms across Kansas will do little to bolster temperatures. Highs largely remain in the middle to upper 50s south of Highway 2 with middle 60s north.

This weekend...while the main shortwave trough, upon ejecting onto the Plains will dive further south towards west Texas, mid-level heights will be unlikely to respond much as the next disturbance pushes onshore the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will vary across the area with warmer values in our north and west where above normal values appear probable. These areas will likely reach the upper 60s and perhaps the low 70s, with middle 60s elsewhere.

Monday and beyond...the aforementioned Pacific Northwest system will be fairly progressive and translate east quickly over the Northern Rockies with expansive influence over the Central and Northern Plains. Similar to the previous system, the brunt of any upper-level forcing remains outside the local area. That said, broad WAA should support increasing rain potential. Belief is most if not all appreciable (0.25"+) QPF potential remains east of Highway 183. Overall, local impacts from the passing disturbance appear to be on the downward trend. Can't completely close the book on this potential though so stay tuned. Regardless, the lack of any colder air across Canada into the Northern Plains prior to the event limits overall concern on any of the region seeing anything other than rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours at both terminals. Some scattered high clouds will drift into the area later tonight into Thursday morning with ceilings around 25000 FT AGL. Winds will shift around to the south and south-southeast at 10 to 15 KTS Thursday. Some gusts may approach 20 KTS at both terminals Thursday afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.