textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected across western Nebraska, the Sandhills, and north central Nebraska tomorrow. Very low humidity values are expected, with winds gusting in excess of 25 mph, and well above normal temperatures.

- Very warm temperatures are expected through mid week, with daily highs roughly 20 to 25 degrees above seasonal average. This will also bring daily fire weather concerns.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a dry line tracks across western Nebraska. The severe potential remains uncertain at this time.

- Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely again on Wednesday and Thursday, with low humidity behind the dry line and gusty winds across the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Skies are expected to remain mostly clear tonight, with a steady southeast wind across most of the region. This steady wind should help keep temperatures right around the freezing mark overnight. While not as cold as the previous few nights, this may still get cool enough to harm sensitive plants and vegetation. After very dry conditions across western Nebraska today, expecting poor humidity recovery across the Panhandle tonight, with humidity values returning around 50 to 60 percent. Further to the east, humidity recovery will be slightly better, around the 60 to 75 percent range. This will help to set the stage for tomorrow's fire weather concern.

Upper level ridging and warm 850 mb temperatures set up across the region tomorrow, which will allow for a quick warm up during the morning hours. By the afternoon, expecting that highs break into the low 80s across most of the region, roughly 20 degrees above seasonal average. With the relatively poor humidity recovery overnight and quickly warming temperatures in the morning, humidity is expected to drop rapidly, reaching critical fire weather thresholds by the late morning. Areas west of Highway 83 are expected to drop around 10 percent or less, with areas east of Highway 83 between 12 to 20 percent. A low pressure system is expected to track across western Nebraska tomorrow, increasing winds out of the south during the morning. By the afternoon, expecting a shift to more westerly winds. However, these winds are expected to reach gusts around 25 to 30 mph, with the strongest gusts generally north of Interstate 80. With the combination of hot, dry, windy conditions yet again, have issued a Red Flag Warning for areas north of Interstate 80 for tomorrow afternoon into the early evening.

By the evening, winds are expected to weaken across the region. However, humidity recovery remains poor, with values returning around 50 to 60 percent across the region. Overnight lows continue to trend warmer, with lows mostly in the lower 40s across the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Temperatures remain well above seasonal through mid week, as upper level ridging and anomalous 850 mb temperatures persist. Both Tuesday and Wednesday, highs are expected to push into the mid to upper 80s, with potential for some sites across western and north central Nebraska to break into the lower 90s. These highs remain around 20 to 25 degrees above average. With highs remaining well above average, expect to see low relative humidity each afternoon, approaching and dropping below critical fire weather thresholds. The heat and low humidity will be cause for at least elevated to near critical fire weather concerns both days, with winds being the limiting factor. For Tuesday, winds appear lighter across the region, which may prevent critical fire weather thresholds being reached. However, by Wednesday, the chances for critical fire weather conditions increase again. Gusty southerly winds are expected across the region, which will largely drive the fire weather concern. However, there remains some uncertainty on moisture availability throughout the day, as a plume of deep moisture is expected across eastern and central Nebraska. This will cause a dry line set up across western Nebraska, and the location of this dry line will largely determine the weather on Wednesday. For now, best chances of critical fire weather appear to be across western Nebraska and the Sandhills, but much will depend on the location of the dry line, which may bring concerns further east.

Wednesday's dry line also brings chances for showers and thunderstorms across portions of the forecast region, most likely for areas along and east of Highway 83. As with the fire weather concerns, much will depend on the location of the dry line to determine best chances for convective initiation. Will also need to keep a close eye on the moisture plume across eastern and central Nebraska. Both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models suggest dewpoints in the 50s across the central Nebraska, with the latest ECMWF run bringing this as far west as the Panhandle. However, both models are in agreement of a strong dry line pushing through the region, which may be the focus for thunderstorm activity. Forecast soundings suggest potential for strong shear and sufficient CAPE for some of these storms to become severe. However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in both the location of the moisture and dry line, which will have large impacts on the thunderstorm forecast. At this time, will continue to monitor forecast trends as guidance comes into consensus, but certainly appears that Wednesday afternoon and evening could bring impactful weather across the region, whether as storms or fire weather or a combination of both.

An upper level trough tracks across the western United States on Thursday, bringing a more active weather pattern and a return to more seasonal temperatures. Very windy conditions are expected Thursday afternoon, bringing additional fire weather concerns late week. Additionally, humidity remains low behind the dry line passage, furthering the fire weather concern. At this time, the set up appears favorable for near critical to critical fire weather conditions, but will need to see how the weather pattern evolves on Wednesday to determine exact locations for concerns.

Late week into the weekend, upper level troughing keeps us in a fairly active weather pattern. Temperatures again remain more seasonal, to potentially cooler than seasonal temperatures across parts of the region. With the active pattern, expecting a near daily chance for precipitation, around a 30 percent chance each day. This may bring some chances for rain and snow showers. However, ensemble guidance points to this likely being low end amounts. Probabilities for one hundredth of an inch liquid precipitation are generally around a 20 to 40 percent chance in the GEFS and European ensembles, with amounts over one tenth of an inch only highlighted on Sunday, again around a 30 percent chance. However, this may at least be a period in the extended forecast to keep an eye on for precipitation chances, given the active pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. Winds remain relatively light out of the east and southeast this afternoon and evening, remaining steady throughout the night. By mid morning tomorrow, winds begin to become more gusty out of the south across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills. While some high cloud cover may be expected late in the TAF period, no impacts to ceilings or visibility are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Relatively poor humidity recovery occurs overnight, ranging from 50 to 60 percent across western Nebraska and 60 to 70 percent further east. As temperatures quickly climb in the morning, humidity is expected to drop off quickly, reaching critical fire weather thresholds across most of the region by late morning. Critical winds appear most likely for areas north of Interstate 80, with highest gusts across the Sandhills. With this in mind, have issued a Red Flag Warning across western and north central Nebraska, as well as the Sandhills.

Humidity recovery is again poor overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning, leading to low humidity across the region. However, lighter winds on Tuesday should keep conditions just below critical values. Still, expect at least elevated to near critical concerns on Tuesday. By Wednesday, much gustier conditions are expected, raising concerns to near critical to critical. However, the location of a dry line will largely determine the areal extent of fire weather concerns. Thursday similarly sees low humidity and gusty winds across most of the region, but much depends on how Wednesday's weather pattern evolves.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ204-206-208-209.