textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected across the southern Panhandle and southwestern Nebraska this afternoon, due to low humidity and gusty winds.

- Another windy day Wednesday, with gusts of 45 mph or greater along and north of Highway 2. Though minimum humidity values remain above critical thresholds, elevated fire weather concerns persist with these wind gusts.

- An arctic front pushes through the region late week, bringing a return of cold temperatures and chances of snow. Dangerously cold wind chills both Friday and Saturday morning may range from 10 to 25 below zero across the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A stationary front is observed across western Nebraska early this morning. By mid morning, this front is expected to track east, becoming more of a warm front as warm air advection tracks across western and southwestern Nebraska. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the 50s across southwest Nebraska, with highs in the 40s across the Sandhills, and the 30s across north central Nebraska. With these warmer temperatures, expecting that afternoon relative humidity values drop around 20 percent across southern portions of the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. As a low pressure system deepens and tracks across the region, westerly winds begin to increase across western Nebraska, with peak gusts this afternoon around 25 to 35 mph. This combination of warmer temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds will bring elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, at least for a few hours, across the southern Panhandle and southwest Nebraska this afternoon.

As this low pressure system tracks across the region, a cold front develops and is expected to track across the region late this afternoon and evening, which will bring overnight lows into the teens across the region and wind chills in the single digits. However, before that, to the north and northeast of the low, snow showers are expected to develop and track across southeast South Dakota and far northeast Nebraska. As these showers track across southern South Dakota, a few snow showers may clip across portions of north central Nebraska, however, little to no accumulations are expected. With this chance for precipitation, have added a mention for slight chance (less than 20 percent) PoPs across north central Nebraska, and added a mention of flurries as well.

A strong surface pressure gradient brings potential for strong, gusty northwest winds on Wednesday afternoon, especially areas along and north of Highway 2. Sustained winds around 25 to 35 mph are expected, with gusts potentially up to 45 to 50 mph. Temperatures across northern Nebraska remain near seasonal on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 30s. Afternoon relative humidity values range from the mid 20s across the Sandhills to the upper 30s near the Nebraska-South Dakota border. These humidity values remain above critical fire weather thresholds, but the strength of the winds will be cause for elevated fire weather concerns, as any fire starts may quickly spread. By Wednesday night, another shot of cold air is expected across the region, bringing overnight lows again into the teens, with wind chills in the single digits.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Thursday night, an arctic front is expected to track across the region, bringing very cold air in its wake. In fact, overnight lows Thursday night into Friday morning are currently forecast around zero to below zero for most of the region, though these may yet be on the "warmer" end of guidance. For now, with these bitter overnight lows, dangerously cold wind chills are possible Friday morning, with current forecast wind chills of 15 to 25 below zero across most of the region. The coldest wind chills are expected across north central Nebraska, which shows greater potential of dropping even colder than 25 below. The cold temperatures remain Friday night into Saturday morning, where overnight lows again remain at or below zero, with Saturday morning wind chills also approaching 10 to 25 below zero. Will continue to monitor the forecast trends, as these could keep getting colder.

This front also brings a chances of snow showers across the region early Friday morning through Saturday evening. Disagreement is noted in forecast ensemble guidance in snowfall amounts. Looking specifically at one inch of accumulations or greater, both the European and Canadian ensembles show increasing chances of this scenario, with percentages ranging from 30 to 70 percent across the region. However, the GEFS solution remains pessimistic, showing only a 10 percent chance of this happening across the region. Again, will continue to monitor the trends over the next few forecast cycles, to see if better agreement is reached.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. A low pressure system tracks through the region today, causing a subtle shift in the winds from westerly to northwesterly. As a cold front passes through the region this afternoon into the evening, winds become gusty out of the northwest at local terminals. Along with the frontal passage, lower ceilings are expected, however at this time low end VFR is expected, though some forecast soundings suggest brief MVFR conditions are possible. WIll also be keeping an eye on the potential development of strong winds aloft behind the cold front, which may bring LLWS concerns to local terminals tonight. However, confidence in location and timing is low at this time, so will omit from TAFs for now.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.