textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across the western Sandhills, southwest and central Nebraska, with large hail and damaging winds possible.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening, favoring areas west of Highway 83, with damaging winds and isolated severe hail the main concerns.

- Much warmer temperatures arrive this weekend ahead of anomalous heat setting in for early next week where daily highs in the upper 90s to low 100s appear probable for Sunday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough moving across the Dakotas into MN will push a cold front south through western NE with a northeast to east wind in the afternoon. Highs not as hot, from the mid 80s north central to the low 90s southwest. A few showers and storms are possible in the northeast this morning into this afternoon and possibly further south into Custer County this afternoon. This is in closer proximity to the surface front. In the higher terrain to our west, storms are expected to develop by mid afternoon in an easterly upslope environment and move east into the western Sandhills late afternoon and evening. Storms coverage looks more scattered by this evening across the western Sandhills, southwest and central NE. SBCAPEs by late afternoon will be highest near 2500 J/kg across the southeast, and 1000-2000 across the west. Deep layer shear will be around 35 to 40 kts. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, with isolated large hail also possible. A Slight Risk for severe storms south of a line from Hay Springs through Bartlett. A secondary threat of locally heavy rainfall, where storms are slow moving or train across the same areas. Could see an MCS develop overnight, mainly across south central or southeast Nebraska. Thunderstorm activity will diminish after midnight as weak surface high pressure settles over the area and winds become light and variable. Lows slightly cooler from upper 50s northwest Sandhills to near 65 southeast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Thursday/Thursday Night...Modest high pressure will glance the area early in the day with return southeasterly flow becoming established by midday. How potential convection across Kansas impedes moisture advection into the area remains unclear but overall thinking is adequate recovery should be anticipated locally. Beneath persistent anomalous warmth aloft, temperatures should manage to seasonable levels. This paints widespread 80s across the area with a select few approaching 90F. As the influence of a modest EML lingers over the area, moderate instability should develop favoring the Panhandle region where low-level moisture should be most impressive. MLCAPE values are progged to climb to around 1500-2000 j/kg within nominal deep layer shear as 0-6km BWD values reach 25-35 knots which will support organized multicell to isolated supercell development. Convection should develop off the higher terrain during peak heating and track east within the zonal steering flow aloft. Storm motions should be typical of early July, relatively slow. This should delay most activity arriving into our western zones until the early evening. With loss of daytime heating, boundary layer stabilization will hinder eastward progression of activity and MLCIN increases quickly. With lack of any appreciable supporting theta-e advection off the surface, convection should wane quickly by mid/late evening. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for areas west of a Merriman to Paxton line with roughly a 100 mile Marginal Risk buffer to the east. This aligns with the thinking that convection will wane quickly between Highway 61 and 83 corridors and casts doubt on meaningful rainfall chances east of the latter. Main severe threats will consist of damaging wind gusts though isolated severe hail will be possible west of Highway 61. Parent shortwave trough will cross late in the evening with h5 low forming over central and eastern Nebraska. Backside convergence may support persistent light PoPs overnight but NBM probabilities paint low potential for beneficial rainfall. Will keep Slight Chance and Chance PoPs for now, generally limited to 40% or less.

Friday and beyond...heights begin to build by later in the day Friday but timing of upper-level low and its departure is low confidence at this time. Model blend maintains low-end PoPs through the bulk of the day which is somewhat supported by various deterministic solutions so see little reason to stray from these significantly. Cooler temperatures appear possible but variations in NWP output limits confidence in this. Attention quickly turns to the looming heat wave arriving this weekend and persisting into next week. Upper ridge will quickly amplify by early weekend with 595+ dam h5 heights overspreading Wyoming and much of western Nebraska by Sunday. This aligns with NAEFS highlighting h2 and h5 heights surpassing model climatologies for the time of year. Similarly, temperatures aloft will be approaching climatological maximums, particularly at h5 and h7. The warmer temperatures aloft combined with the high pressure dome will quell any and all rainfall potential in the extended period. As it stands now, expansive middle to upper 90s are in the forecast for early next week with a few locations approaching triple digits. Forecast highs at North Platte and Valentine in particular would fall in the upper range of each site's respective climatology with values at Valentine likely to exceed the 90th percentile in climatology each day Sunday through Wednesday. As impressive as this warmth appears likely to be, we should fall short of record highs. Nevertheless, given the anticipated magnitude of heat over consecutive days with little relief overnight (heat indices struggling to fall be 70F at times), concern is high for vulnerable folks to prolonged heat. Will need to closely monitor day-to-day trends in forecast highs as headlines may be necessary to account for this. Anomalous upper ridging appears likely to continue over the Central Plains through much of next week with ridge breakdown appearing likely by Thursday. This may break the heat and allow appreciable rainfall chances to return though precise details are uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions are largely expected through the forecast period. A brief period of low-stratus may envelope KVTN and introduce some IFR/LIFR conditions, but this should be limited to an hour or so.

Thereafter, expecting only passing mid to high level clouds with general northeasterly winds remaining fairly modest. Later today, thunderstorms should develop out west and introduce thicker high level clouds. Only KLBF will see the potential for -TSRA but this remains low confidence so continue to cover with a PROB30. Signals again point to at least some IFR conditions in our north late tonight so did include a mention at KVTN but this should remain north of LBF.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.