textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread thunderstorms are expected across across western to north central Nebraska through Saturday evening. A few storms could be severe, with large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two could be possible.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again be possible Sunday afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. A few storms could be severe with large hail and a brief tornado or two being the primary concerns.

- Near-daily thunderstorm chances continue into the week but severe potential remains uncertain at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A warm front has been nudging in from southwest Nebraska, promoting easterly flow and scattered thunderstorm throughout the morning. Later on in the day, a shortwave trough is trekking eastward across the Utah/Idaho border, at the same time, southeasterly low level winds are feeding warm, moist air into the area. As low level clouds and fog continue to burn off through the late afternoon, the region will be primed for the development of widespread strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon into the early evening. The environment is conducive for a persistent threat for clusters of severe storms. Ensembles have a swathe of MUCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg along with sufficient 0-6 km bulk shear of 50 - 60 kts blanketing western and north central Nebraska which would be a conducive environment for the potential of large hail. Models have been a little disagreeable for how far north storms will develop, but show moderate to high agreement for storms developing along and south of I-80, where clustering of storms will move across and become more upscale. Confidence remains lower on how organized storms could be further north where some models have it being widespread where others are nonexistent. A tornado threat cannot be ruled out especially over far southwest Nebraska where low clouds have already started to clear out. Additionally, a threat of localized flooding is developing with PWAT values remaining high and a growing number of models suggesting a swath of 2 - 4" of QPF across central Nebraska through tonight, a flood advisory has been issued for Custer county to highlight this concern.

Transitioning to Sunday, strong to severe thunderstorms remain likely across western and into north central Nebraska. Storms look to start out discrete, supercellular in nature. 30 - 40 kts bulk shear combined with ample instability will make the environment conducive for storms having large to very large hail. A tornado or two also remains a possibility, especially when the low level jet strengthens during the early evening through the overnight hours. This is all dependent of the progression and location of the frontal boundary so this will continue to be monitored closely for any changes.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Active weather continues to be the tune for much of the week with near-daily thunderstorm chances. Numerous small shortwaves move through Nebraska until an upper level trough moves into the early Friday. As such, while severe weather potential remains uncertain at this time, confidence is increasing that it could be a rainy week regardless. Confidence is moderate to high that localized flooding will be a growing concern for portions of central Nebraska. With soils already being likely saturated from the weekend rains and rain rates possibly being 0.5 to 1 inch per hour, flooding over roadways, low lying areas, and small streams will be a potential threat to keep an eye out to monitor for over the next forecast packages. Other than thunderstorm and flooding concerns, the week looks to remain mild with highs remaining in the mid 70s until next weekend where near normal highs return.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KLBF- Dense low stratus will remain overhead through the night and into tomorrow. Currently, cigs are sitting around 1500 ft. Between 02-06z, we will see a potential line of storms move through the area. As this moves through, cigs will drop between 500-1000 ft with vis as low as 4 SM. Some uncertainty remains on when this will finally move out, but roughly around 06z we should see much of the activity moving east of the area. This will leave us with overcast skies and IFR cigs. 10z and beyond, cigs are expected to decrease even more, becoming overcast around 500 ft. These conditions will remain through much of the morning.

Winds will remain gusty and out of the east-southeast until around 06z, with gusts upwards to 25 KTs. As the line of storms move through between 02-06z, gusty winds may result. Thus, opted to include VRB winds with gusts upwards to 40 KTs in the PROB30 group for when this comes through. After 06z, winds will gradually decrease and generally become light and variable by 10z.

KVTN- Dense low stratus deck will remain draped over the area through tonight and much of Sunday. Currently, cigs have been hovering around 1000 ft and should continue through the start of the TAF period. Between 00-04z, we will have the chance for isolated-scattered showers/storms, which can drop cigs to around 800 ft and vis to 5 SM. 12z Sunday, the low stratus will remain overhead and around 500 ft. Another round of isolated- scattered showers/storms will move through after 15z Sunday, which may result in even lower cigs. Confidence is lower at this time. Thus, opted to message through a PROB30 group.

Gusty winds will remain through the start of the TAF period, with southeasterly winds between 10-15 KTs gusting upwards to 25 KTs. Wind speeds will gradually decrease through the night, becoming light and southeasterly after 12z Sunday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.