textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather returns this afternoon across most of western and north central Nebraska, due to a continued combination of well above average temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty winds.

- A strong system late tonight into Sunday morning brings chances for precipitation across northern Nebraska and the Sandhills. Accumulating snowfall and blowing snow are expected across north central Nebraska. Strong, northwesterly wind gusts are expected across the rest of the region.

- Bitterly cold temperatures return Sunday night into Monday morning, with widespread subzero wind chills across the region.

- Confidence continues to increase regarding a building heat wave arriving the middle of next week and continuing through the following weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Another hot, dry, and windy day is expected across most of western and north central Nebraska this afternoon, bringing another round of critical fire weather conditions. As such, a Red Flag Warning is in effect this morning through the evening. As with the previous few days, a strong push of downslope flow and warm air advection will usher well above normal temperatures across southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. Expecting temperatures across southwest Nebraska to push into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon, with some areas even breaking into the low 80s. Still expecting much cooler temperatures across north central Nebraska, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s, where cool air advection remains in place. With the well above average temperatures, expect that afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the 10 to 15 percent range across southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills. These low relative humidity values will also be accompanied by gusty westerly winds, especially across portions of the Panhandle, including northern Garden and southern Sheridan counties. Peak wind gusts across the eastern Panhandle of 45 mph are expected this afternoon, with sustained westerly winds of 20 to 25 mph.

In addition to the strong downslope flow, a low pressure system tracks across southern South Dakota, which further complicates the wind forecast. While predominately westerly flow is expected across the Panhandle, southwesterly to southerly flow is expected across southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills. Across north central Nebraska, winds are expected to be southeasterly to easterly. Across all of these areas, winds are expected to remain sustained at 10 to 15 mph, gusting 25 mph. Will be closely monitoring winds tomorrow, as these small changes will be difficult to track and refine.

As the low tracks across southern South Dakota/northern Nebraska tonight, a cold front tracks into the region, bringing strong northwesterly winds in its wake. Winds are expected to steadily increase from midnight onward from 25 mph around midnight to 35 mph sustained near sunrise. This will also mean very strong wind gusts Saturday night into Sunday morning, with gusts around 45 mph or greater through the night. Oddly enough, with as warm as we have been, expect to see some sub zero wind chills Sunday morning across northwestern Nebraska and into the Sandhills. This may even bring near zero wind chills into southwestern Nebraska.

The front also brings the potential for precipitation to the area, with the best chances remaining in northern Nebraska. Initial showers are expected to fall as rain, before cooler temperatures force a switch to snow. However, high resolution model guidance continues to favor a more northern solution, keeping the bulk of the precipitation in South Dakota. The latest forecast continues to reflect this trend with a slight decrease in snow totals across northern Nebraska. Still expecting that 1 to 2 inches may fall across the far northern portions of the state, with perhaps some localized amounts up to 3 inches. However, this snow is expected to be more of the dry, fluffy variety, meaning little in terms of liquid equivalent precipitation. Higher precipitation totals may only bring about one tenth of an inch liquid, with areas further south (including areas with current wildfires) only getting a few hundredths at best.

This entire set up brings a fairly multifaceted set up for Sunday. After sunrise, as better mixing develops across the region, the stronger winds aloft will be able to mix to the surface. Remember that overnight surface winds are expected to gust 45 mph. The stronger winds aloft are forecast to be 60 mph or greater, meaning strong northwest wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are expected at the surface Sunday morning and afternoon. As such, a High Wind Watch remains in effect for most of Nebraska on Sunday. Have decided to maintain the watch at this time, as further refinement in timing may be needed as frontal passage is resolved.

However, the wind will remain fairly impactful for the region. First, for areas with falling snow, these strong wind gusts will create areas of blowing snow and near whiteout conditions. The threat for this appears greatest across north central Nebraska, where a Winter Storm Watch is in effect. The main threat for this will not be snow accumulations, but rather the blowing snow and near whiteout conditions. With the threat for Blizzard like conditions, will continue to keep a close eye on this area, as headline changes may be needed depending on the forecast trends. Secondly, although relative humidity remains above critical fire weather thresholds Sunday, any ongoing fires or new fire starts will rapidly move and spread. Thirdly, with forecast highs in the 20s to lower 30s, these winds will have a nasty bite, leaving wind chills under 10 degrees for most of the region. Be prepared for an active weather day Sunday, with multiple weather considerations!

As for Sunday night, northerly winds persist throughout the night, but the strongest wind gusts are expected to subside around midnight. Still expecting some gusts up to 25 mph across north central Nebraska through the night, so will need to keep an eye out for additional blowing snow conditions. Will also see a push of cold temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning. In fact, overnight lows drop into the single digits Sunday night, with the "warmest" lows around 11 degrees. Combine these lows with persistent northerly winds, and we can expect widespread subzero wind chills across all of western and north central Nebraska Sunday night into Monday morning. Across north central Nebraka, could even see wind chills as low as 10 to 15 degrees below zero. Even though we have been exceptionally warm lately, be prepared to get the winter gear out again, as these wind chills will feel very cold compared to our recent weather. Just remember, in a span of a few days, we are going from highs possibly in the 80s to subzero windchill!

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Monday/Tuesday...Amplified flow will establish itself across the Central CONUS as troughing rapidly deepens over the Great Lakes. Heights climb quickly as upper-level high pressure moves onto the West Coast later Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures should moderate slightly on Monday, though will likely remain below normal for the time of year, ranging from the middle 20s northeast to middle 40s southwest. Heading into Tuesday, the NBM continues to highlight light QPF across far north central Nebraska but trends have been to shift this further north and east. This is echoed by GFS/ECWMF output where QPF is more closely tied to the retreating baroclinic zone trailing high pressure to the east. Even so, will maintain Slight Chance (< 25%) PoPs across our northeast zones. Early morning Tuesday may favor at least a snow mention but as temperatures warm during the day, any and all precipitation should transition to rain. Only light QPF is anticipated, totaling a few hundredths at best, so little relief to the drought and fire conditions is likely. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will push middle 50s in the northeast and middle 70s in the southwest and kickstart another stretch of warm and dry conditions to round out the week.

Wednesday and beyond...upper-level ridging/high pressure aloft will continue to translate east towards the Four Corners region by late Wednesday. Heights aloft across the Central Plains will push 580 dam with geopotential heights a full +2 SD for much of western Nebraska. Similarly, h5 temperatures will near NAEFS climatological maximums for much of the Intermountain West. The eastern periphery of these warmer mid-level temperatures will cross the Central Rockies and reach the High Plains. The result is dry weather with well above- normal temperatures. ECWMF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) continues to highlight each day Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday with strongly positive anomalies and non-zero Shift of Tails. NBM inner-quartile spreads remain small, suggesting fairly high confidence, with only 6- 8F differences in 75th and 25th percentile outputs. Even the cooler 25th percentile outputs threaten record highs for many western Nebraska climate sites so concern is high regarding a potential significant heat wave. With continued dry conditions and the anomalous warmth, fire weather concerns will certainly increase as well. Lower percentile output for peak gusts in the extended period suggest some potential for at least locally critical fire weather conditions but more precise details are murky at this extended range. Either way, will continue to highlight increased late-week fire weather concerns with the expected heat wave and daily temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Winds and smoke will be the main aviation concerns for the upcoming forecast period.

Fire activity across southeast Lincoln County (LBF) has resulted in surface smoke being advected in thanks to persistent southeast winds. Relied heavily on simulated near-surface smoke from high resolution guidance, which suggests a fairly noteworthy resurgence of thick smoke later this morning as winds veer to more southerly. Have introduced 2SM and FU, closely matching Friday evening observations at their worst, given high concentrations hinted at by the HRRR. Towards late morning, winds should continue to veer to the southwest which will carry smoke away from the terminal. Winds should increase considerably as they continue to veer to more southwesterly where speeds of 30 to 35 knots appear probable. As a cold front approaches late tonight, CIGs should drop steadily at VTN with another round of smoke potentially working into LBF. Gusts should increase towards the end of the period in northern terminals but should peak just beyond the end of the valid period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday for much of western and north central Nebraska. Red Flag Warnings remain in place from 11am through 9pm CDT.

Modest southwesterly flow across western Nebraska will increase towards midday/early afternoon as a surface low tracks through the northern Sandhills. This will result in a pronounced surface trough/dryline feature tracking east and settling between the Highway 83 and Highway 183 corridor by mid-afternoon. Strong southwesterly winds will envelope much of western Nebraska following passage of the trough along with significant dry air. Latest short term guidance hints at afternoon humidity minimums falling to around 10% south of Highway 20 and west of Highway 83. Strong low-level kinematics will promote deep mixing heights. This deep mixing will tap into stronger flow around h7, or approximately 5kft AGL, and promote efficient momentum transfer through the fairly unidirectional boundary layer by late afternoon. The result is gusts nearing 40 to 45 mph within a wide swath over the western Sandhills extending south towards Interstate 80. Elsewhere, gusts up to 35 mph appear likely. Gusts may remain strong into the evening which warrants the late end time to the Red Flag Warnings. Later tonight, a strong frontal boundary will arrive into northern Nebraska with another pronounced wind gust increase across the whole of the area at and immediately following frontal passage. Gusts may once again exceed 50 mph as they turn to the northwest. Timing is late Saturday evening, particularly after 10pm CDT into early Sunday morning. These stronger gusts are likely to persist the remainder of the overnight hours and not be brief in nature. This will prolong greatest fire weather concerns into the early morning hours on Sunday. Wind gusts are likely to climb closer to daybreak Sunday and may threaten 50-60 mph. High Wind Watches are in place for all of western Nebraska as a result. Though winds will hamper humidity recovery Saturday night into Sunday, the influx of much colder air will keep humidity minimums in check during the day on Sunday. Precipitation potential should increase by late morning, favoring northern Nebraska where accumulating snow and strong winds may promote blizzard-like conditions. Further south, expected precipitation amounts drop off quickly. Locations along and south of Highway 2 are unlikely to see much in the way of measurable snowfall with liquid equivalents likely only totaling a few hundredths at most.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-209-210-219. High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NEZ007-010.