textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Off and on rain with a few embedded thunderstorms will persist for areas southeast of an Imperial to Broken Bow line through the overnight tonight.

- Rain chances decrease for the daytime Friday but renewed convection should arrive from the south late Friday night into early Saturday morning favoring portions of southwest and central Nebraska.

- After a dry and warmer weekend, rain chances increase yet again for Monday into Tuesday as a slug of tropical moisture spills onto the Plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Early this afternoon, a band of rain continues to shift east into central and eastern Nebraska. This was driven by a broad area of low- level warm air advection (WAA) and modest fgen centered around h85- h7. With the weakening and departure of this lift, activity was winding down over western Nebraska. Behind this, northerly flow was helping draw in drier air and this along with greater insolation from partly to mostly sunny skies had led to warmer temperatures. Central and southwest Nebraska was holding onto the middle 60s but further northwest, locations managed to reach the 70s and even some upper 70s with 78F at Valentine as of 2pm CDT.

For tonight...a passing shortwave will reinforce WAA and along with increased DCVA will drive another increase in rain and thunderstorm coverage. HREF and CAM solutions show an increase in isolated to widely scattered convection across western Kansas/eastern Colorado this afternoon and with time this activity should lift north and east into the local area. Mid-day LBF RAOB shows moist adiabatic lapse rates with a deeply saturated profile as PWATs once again exceed 1.5" and near 200% of normal for late September. Given the poor lapse rates and resultant poor instability, severe weather is not anticipated but convection including some lightning appears probable. This will favor our southeast including areas southeast of an Imperial to Broken Bow line. Given the anomalous moisture in place, heavy rain will be the main concern with any convection and the area of greatest concern will align with the same footprint as the lightning potential. HREF probability-matched mean (PMM) values shows a few localized areas exceeding 0.50" of rainfall through the overnight but overall most locations will remain closer to 0.25" or less. Meanwhile, the decreasing clouds and drier air invading the northwest should allow for a cooler night. Lows are forecast in the upper 40s in vicinity of the Pine Ridge while clouds and precipitation should hold all other locations into the middle to upper 50s.

Friday/Friday night...deeper troughing will arrive into the Pacific Northwest by early in the day. A lead shortwave trough will lift north and east across the northern Rockies through the day. Southeasterly moist flow through the day will drive continued light precipitation chances through the day, favoring north central Nebraska where the greatest focus for lift will reside. As a result, PoPs slowly lift north and east with time and favor east of Highway 83 and north of the Platte Valley system. Have PoPs limited to around 30-35 percent with only a few hundredths of QPF in the forecast. This matches HREF PMM output which suggests largely trace amounts across the area. NWP forecast soundings support this with the profile unzipping as mid-level dry air increases. Saturation whittles down to the lowest 1-3km AGL with weak lift suggesting more dreary/drizzly precipitation than outright rain. Further south, as precipitation manages to depart the area quicker, temperatures may moderate better and thus afternoon highs were increased. Values range from middle 70s southwest and west to middle 60s northeast. The warmer temperatures may foster greater destabilization as lapse rates improve. HREF shows this as similar to a warm front lifting north with increasing MUCAPE values through the evening and nearing 750+ by late evening. This should open the door once again to increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. Though lift is somewhat nebulous, PoPs will increase through the evening south to north before shift east of Highway 183 towards daybreak Saturday. Again, no severe weather is expected but locally heavy rainfall and infrequent lightning will be possible. Both HREF and REFS show a few localized swaths of greater QPF suggesting CI succeeds in the area. Timing remains somewhat uncertain with HRRR and NAM Nest runs differing by 2-4 hours. That said, late evening should see an increasing thunderstorm threat and potential for more heavy rainfall east of a Hayes Center to North Platte to Broken Bow line. Low temperatures will likely settle into the 50s for most if not all locations once again.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

This weekend...Upper troughing will lift north and east towards the Canadian Prairies as a cutoff low forms over the Northeast Coast. Heights aloft will build as a result and lead to a period of dry and warmer weather. Daytime highs over the weekend will climb to the middle 70s to middle 80s across the local area with the warmest values in the west. A trailing front/surface trough will extend down through the Northern Plains and move into western Nebraska. This will propel dry air off the high terrain into western Nebraska. This will likely introduce some humidity minimums falling into the 20 to 25 percent range for the Panhandle and perhaps as far east as our western zones. At this time, precise eastward extent of this drier air is somewhat uncertain but in any event, marginal winds should preclude greater fire weather concerns.

Next week...the next disturbance to affect the region takes shape over the central valley of California by late Sunday/early Monday. As this feature digs south, broad height falls will expand across the Great Basin and into the central/northern Rockies. Resultant southwesterly flow will feed rich tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo through the Desert Southwest and into much of the Plains. As the trough approaches by late Monday into Tuesday, rain and thunderstorm potential increases markedly with the model blend producing 65-85%, or "Definite" categories, across much of western and central Nebraska. NBM QPF probabilities remain quite bullish with 50%+ potential for exceeding a half an inch of rain along and east of Highway 61. While finer details will need sorted out, confidence in wetting rains for at least portions of the area continue to increase though precisely how much will likely not be resolved until this weekend at the earliest. Lingering moisture and additional upper-level impulses should allow rain potential to continue through the end of the forecast period. This will likely occur with moderating temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect LIFR and IFR ceilings over the next 24 hours. Ceilings will remain below 500 FT AGL overnight tonight through late morning Friday. Ceilings will then rise to 700 to 900 FT AGL Friday afternoon, persisting into Friday evening. Fog will also develop overnight with visibilities down to 1/2sm between 11 and 15z Friday morning. Visibilities will gradually improve late morning with p6sm expected after 22z Friday. For the KVTN terminal: Ceilings will lower to IFR and LIFR levels after 09z Friday. From 09z Friday to 06z Saturday ceilings will range from 300 to 800 FT AGL with the lowest ceilings expected from 10z to 17z Friday. Fog is expected to develop overnight with visibilities down to 1/2sm between 11z and 15z Friday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.