textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Today and Thursday with the greatest threat over northern Nebraska where a slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) exists.

- Turning warmer Saturday and Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Thunderstorm chances returning Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Mid to upper 80s Monday warming back into the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

H5 analysis tonight had closed low pressure over southwestern Saskatchewan. A trough extended south of this feature into southern Montana, western Wyoming and eastern Idaho. Downstream of this trough, a decent shortwave was noted over northeastern Wyoming, with a second shortwave noted over central Colorado. Further south, a broad area of high pressure was located over central Texas. A shortwave was noted on the western periphery of the high over eastern New Mexico. Ridging was present over the mid Mississippi valley and extended north into eastern Ontario. East of this ridge was a broad trough of low pressure which extended from the Canadian Maritimes, southwest into the Carolinas and northeastern Georgia. Showers and thunderstorms continue overnight across far northwestern and far northern portions of north central Nebraska. This activity became more prevalent across the forecast area after 04z tonight and is along a weak surface boundary, which is draped over northwestern Nebraska and central South Dakota. The latest VAD wind profiler data from KLNX indicates a 40KT low level jet overnight and this should aid in the continuation of storms overnight as they traverse far northern Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Today through Thursday night...Thunderstorm chances and the threat for possible severe storms is the main forecast challenge over the next 36 hours. For today, there are two areas of concern for convective initiation later this afternoon. The first area is in association with a weak upper level disturbance, currently over eastern New Mexico. The latest deterministic solutions lift this feature to the north-northeast today across western Kansas. As this feature approaches southwestern and south central Nebraska this afternoon, it will encounter increasing instability with SB CAPE's reaching 2000+ J/KG and H850-H700 lapse rates approaching 8-9C. By 21z, the latest NAM12 soln indicates little to no CIN which should lead to development late this afternoon. As for the threat of severe, deep layer shear across SW Nebraska is on the order of 20 to 25 KTS this afternoon which would favor a marginal threat more driven on thermodynamics vs. shear and confined to peak heating ie. late afternoon into the early evening hours. Further north, the second area of concern for convective development is INVOF a cold frontal boundary which is forecast to lie from central South Dakota into NW Nebraska this afternoon. The main driver of this frontal boundary is the closed low over Saskatchewan (mentioned above in the synopsis section). This low will track across south central Canada over the next 24 hours. The main push of this front will be over the Dakotas this afternoon and tonight and am expecting the greatest threat for precipitation and strong winds in these areas. Further south, the front will stall across northern Nebraska this evening with convection expected INVOF this feature. As for precipitation chances, they are greatest across north central Nebraska, as well as southern portions of the forecast area. With this second area of convection, deep layer shear is on the order of 25 to 30 KTS which would be more favorable for strong to severe storms. Given the expected linear nature of convection tonight across northern Nebraska, the main severe threat would be gusty winds. Precipitation will move east overnight, exiting the forecast area by day break Thursday morning. Another round of storms is possible on Thursday with two areas being the focus. The first area is over northern Nebraska INVOF the stalled out front. The second area is over the Panhandle along a surface trough of low pressure. The main modes of severe storms Thursday into Thursday night favor large hail and damaging winds. Mid level lapse rates are fairly steep Thursday afternoon/evening which would favor a large hail threat. In addition to hail and winds, there appears to be a heavy rain threat over northern Nebraska in association with the frontal boundary. This feature is parallel to the H5 flow Thursday night favoring training of thunderstorms. Additional support for heavy rain also lies with forecast PWATS which range from 1.10"-GFS to 1.30-NAM soln or north of the 90%ile for the first week of June. As for temperatures, highs today and Thursday should top out in the middle 80s today and middle to upper 80s for Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

On Friday, an upper trough and weak cold front will move south and east of the forecast area. Still low chances for showers and storms in the east. Any thunderstorms are not expected to be strong, with the better focus near the front south and east of the area into Friday evening. Highs from the low 80s north, to around 90 far southwest.

Saturday and Sunday, upper ridging will occur across the central CONUS as an upper trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest and West Coast. Warmer with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. While can't rule out a few isolated storms Saturday/Saturday evening, looks like dry conditions until Sunday afternoon, with lows POPS Sunday night into Monday, though upper ridging still remains over the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Increasing clouds are expected through the afternoon in advance of the next weather system arriving tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will develop to the west and push into north central Nebraska and the Sandhills this evening. These thunderstorms will have the potential to produce large hail and strong, erratic winds at both terminals. Conditions will gradually improve after 08Z with some lingering showers east of US-83 continuing through sunrise. VFR ceilings will return for Thursday morning, but some gusty southerly winds up to 25 knots are possible.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.