textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills through this evening. Additional concerns are expected Sunday afternoon.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible both Sunday evening and Monday evening across the region. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) has been issued for both days, with large hail and severe winds as the main concerns.

- Hot temperatures are expected Tuesday, with highs over 90 expected, and highs over 100 possible. Temperatures may remain hot Wednesday, though confidence is lower.

- Along with hot temperatures next week, breezy conditions and low humidity may create additional fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

An upper level trough is located across the Pacific Northwest, bringing ridging over western and north central Nebraska. The upper level trough is also strengthening a low pressure system across southeastern Montana. This system is bringing widespread southerly to southeasterly winds across the region, and with the deepening low, causing some gusty conditions. The system is expected to gradually track to the east-northeast over the next several days, as the upper level trough lifts northeast. With this system's slower speed, expect stronger wind gusts to last through most of the night, and into the day tomorrow.

Sunday, a surface trough to the lee of the Rockies will set up a slight temperature gradient across the region. As this extends slightly into the atmosphere, it will contribute to warmer 850 mb temperatures across the west and slightly cooler 850 mb temperatures to the east. All of this will allow s narrow corridor of warmer temperatures to track across eastern Colorado into western Nebraska. Most notably, this narrow corridor of higher temperatures will clip portions of the eastern Panhandle into the western Sandhills. Lower humidity is also expected to the west of the surface trough, which may again set up near critical to critical fire weather concerns across the western Sandhills and eastern Panhandle. While warmer temperatures and lower humidity may contribute to these conditions, the largest concern will be gusty southerly winds across western Nebraska. Peak afternoon gusts up to 40 mph will be possible, especially across the western Sandhills. Have decided to not issue any fire weather headlines at this time, but will be keeping a close eye on the rest of today's conditions as well as the short term forecast trends.

By Sunday evening, attention turns to a potential severe weather threat across portions of northwest Nebraska. As the low over southeast Montana tracks across North Dakota, the cold front is expected to shift the surface trough east. While the bigger severe threat will be in vicinity of the surface low across the eastern Dakotas, there is still a severe threat across northwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. To the east of the surface trough, higher dewpoints, potentially into the mid 50s, are expected through the afternoon and evening. With mostly clear skies throughout the day, CAM guidance suggests the potential for 2,000-3,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE across northwest Nebraska, though deep layer shear appears more limited, generally less than 20 knots. While this may limit a more widespread concern for organized convection, a few strong updrafts are still possible, with stronger thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Forecast soundings are currently suggesting an inverted-V pattern in the lower layers, furthering the wind concern Sunday evening. Given the set up, SPC has put portions of northwest Nebraska into a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Sunday. Though the higher risk appears to be to the north, make sure to remain weather aware Sunday, especially if you have outdoor plans!

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

As the low continues tracking east, expecting the cold front eventually tracks across western Nebraska on Monday. Temperature- wise, this will provide little relief, as highs are still expected to climb into the mid to upper 80s, with southwest portions of Nebraska reaching again into the lower 90s. However, the cold front brings better forcing across the region, increasing the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Latest guidance again suggests potential for greater than 2,500 J/kg of surface based CAPE, along with more substantial deep layer shear, along the order of 40-50 knots. The higher shear values support a more organized convection threat, and likely brings the risk for large hail again across the region. As a low level jet tracks into the region Monday night, also can't rule out the risk for some stronger winds with potential thunderstorms. Given the current set up, SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for southwest and western Nebraska Monday. Based on current guidance, Monday does look to be potentially active, especially late afternoon into the evening. Will continue to track forecast trends, especially as smaller scale features become resolved, to continue to refine the severe weather forecast. However, Monday looks to be another active weather day, so keep up to date on the latest forecast and remain weather aware!

By Tuesday, upper level ridging remains established over western Nebraska, and anomalous 850 mb temperatures are expected aloft. This set up will bring a hot afternoon across the region, with highs in the 90s expected across most of the region. In fact, guidance continues to suggest the possibility of several locations across western and north central Nebraska breaking into the lower 100s. NBM guidance has been trending ever so slightly cooler, but remains well into the upper 90s and lower 100s across the region. Probabilistic guidance shows very high confidence (greater than 90 percent) of highs in the 90s, with around a 40 to 50 percent chance of seeing highs in the 100s. Either way, confidence is fairly high that Tuesday will be hot.

By Wednesday, starting to see greater consensus in model guidance that the upper level trough begins to track across the region. Furthering confidence in this is the latest cluster analysis, with most clusters bringing the trough across western Nebraska with little deviation. This will favor cooler temperatures arriving faster than previous forecasts. In fact, latest NBM guidance has dropped significantly in the last few runs, dropping nearly 10 degrees for North Platte alone. Despite the recent agreement in models, ensembles still highlight some outliers that keep higher temperatures across the region. In fact, there is still a 50 percent chance that highs exceed 90 degrees south of an Ogallala to Springview line Wednesday, and still around a 40 percent chance of highs exceeding 100 south of Interstate 80. All this to say, that even though deterministic models and the NBM are trending cooler, there is still some uncertainty on highs Wednesday afternoon across the region.

While uncertainty remains on Wednesday, there is greater consensus on temperatures cooling off by the end of the week. While highs by the end of the week are still on the warmer side, around the 75th percentile of local climatology, this is only a few degrees warmer than normal for mid June. Typically, highs across western Nebraska for mid June are in the lower 80s, and current forecast highs are in the lower to middle 80s.

While the hear remains one of the top concerns next week, this may also usher in a return of fire weather concerns across portions of the region. With highs remaining above average Tuesday and Wednesday, and slightly above average to end the week, afternoon humidity values may remain low each day. The heat and lower humidity are expected to be accompanied by fairly breezy conditions. Will certainly continue to keep an eye on these forecast trends, but the return of hit, dry, windy conditions may deplete some of the recent moisture and bring a near daily return of fire weather concerns.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. There may be some lower to mid level clouds that move into southern Nebraska, including KLBF terminal, however at this time, confidence is low in any impacts to the terminal. Winds will stay breezy over the next 24 hours. Generally southerly winds around 10 to 20 kts sustained with gusts up to 30 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Near critical to critical fire weather concerns continue this evening across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. Hot temperatures, combined with low humidity and gusty southerly to southeasterly winds are expected to remain through the evening. Overnight, expecting winds to remain gusty, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible throughout the night. Humidity recovery appears more limited across the Panhandle, where humidity is expected to recover around 60 to 70 percent. Across the western Sandhills, better humidity recovery is expected, with recovery around 80 percent.

Sunday, additional near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible, with greatest concerns remaining across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. During the afternoon, highs climb into the 90s across western Nebraska, with afternoon humidity around 20 to 25 percent across the eastern Panhandle. While this is above critical fire weather thresholds, again expect stronger southerly winds gusting up to 40 mph. These stronger gusts, combined with higher hear, and near critical humidity may create additional fire weather concerns. Given the more marginal set up, have decided against issuing a headline at this time. However, given how close conditions are expected to get, fire weather headlines may be needed later this evening. Will continue to keep a close eye on today's conditions and the near term forecast trends before making this call, though.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.