textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue Today and Wednesday across western and north central Nebraska

- Breezy winds Today and Wednesday, with some elevated fire weather concerns across western Nebraska.

- Dry conditions expected Thursday through Saturday, with low chances for rain showers south and east Saturday night into Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Early this afternoon, persistent high clouds were streaming off the Front Range. A split flow pattern was set up over the Western CONUS with ample dry air across the central Plains as high pressure aloft stalls over the Desert Southwest. Midday temperature readings ranged from the upper 50s to lower 60s with southwesterly winds gusting around 20 mph.

Tonight...flow aloft will become more amplified as deep troughing approaches the West Coast. Shortwave ridging will pinch off along the Continental Divide as a mid-level speed max translates south and east behind a passing shortwave disturbance. This will drag a frontal boundary south through western Nebraska and serve largely as the lone change to sensible weather in the short term. Scant moisture in the low and mid levels will preclude precipitation chances with greater potential remaining to the north and east. Winds will increase quickly behind the front they veer to the northwest. Though winds will not be overly significant, stronger gusts should largely favor elevated locations across the Sandhills with 20 mph magnitudes possible. Lows tonight should remain on the mild side with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...early morning strong winds off the surface should translate down as the boundary layer begins to mix out. Gusts should climb to around 25 to perhaps 30 mph in a select few locations. Even with a northwesterly flow regime, temperatures will likely remain on the mild side. Afternoon highs should again climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s, or roughly 4-8F above normal for middle November. Though humidity appears more marginal given an invading Pacific airmass, stronger winds should yet again promote some elevated fire concerns, particularly for southwest Nebraska up through the Panhandle. At this time, critical conditions are not expected. High pressure will settle south and east across the far Northern Plains and should nose into eastern Nebraska towards daybreak on Thursday. This will support some cooler temperatures though still above normal for the time of year with values only in the 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Mid-range ensembles are in good agreement at status quo regarding pattern evolution through the remainder of the week. Deep longwave trough will sit between Hudson Bay and New England with amplified flow persisting across the Central Plains in much of the Midwest. Eventual ridge breakdown should occur over the weekend as a couple more pronounced systems approach the western CONUS. These features should phase together as they progress east across the Great Basin and towards the High Plains. Southerly flow including a greater fetch of moisture from the Gulf should be established by Saturday and will promote moderating temperatures towards the end of the forecast period. Both EPS and GEFS solutions depict modest lee cyclogenesis developing by early Sunday to our southwest and subtle lift may be enough to produce at least some light precipitation for mainly central and eastern Nebraska. Temperatures appear quite mild and should support all rain with any precipitation that does occur though daytime temperatures may falter some with the increased cloudiness and rain. Confidence in precise details, particularly late weekend into early next week, varies considerably between ensemble solutions. NBM inner-quartile spread in daytime maximum temperatures doubles from Friday to Sunday (9F to 19F) at North Platte. Though ensembles generally agree on timing and progression of upper-level wave pattern, some subtle timing and placement discrepancies remain. Overall though, following a fairly light QPF event late weekend into early the following week, a brief lull aligning with another shortwave ridging setup briefly return before even greater precipitation potential returns. Ensembles show greater certainty in occurrence as well as greater potential magnitude of moisture: 30-40%+ of individual members painting 0.1" or greater total liquid equivalent from both the EPS and GEFS solutions. Similarly, temperatures appear likely to remain mild enough to preclude much if any wintry precipitation types but this will need monitored. Recurring troughing over the western CONUS should support an active pattern through mid and late month, an idea highlighted by the Climate Prediction Center's latest outlooks. Given the time of year, should any influx of more Arctic air be realized, precipitation may support greater potential for wintry weather. This will be especially true as guidance hints at a notable system crossing the region in the days leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday so stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with only passing mid and high level clouds expected.

A frontal boundary will sag through western Nebraska late this afternoon through the evening with winds veering to northwesterly in its wake. Strong LLWS should develop at area terminals as winds increase off the surface, persisting through daybreak on Wednesday. Winds will then translate to the surface with northwesterly gusts around 25 knots for the late morning through the end of the period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.