textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Today with the greatest threat over northern Nebraska where a slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) exists.

- The severe threat shifts east and southeast for Friday with a slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) generally east of a line from Curtis, to Ansley, to Bartlett.

- Much warmer Saturday with highs in the 90s. Thunderstorm chances returning Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday, then warming back into the lower to mid 90s Tuesday and upper 90s to near 100 Wednesday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

H5 analysis tonight had a closed low over southeastern Saskatchewan with a trough extending south into eastern Colorado. East of the trough, high pressure was positioned over western Tennessee with ridging extending north-northeast into the eastern Great Lakes. East of this high pressure and ridge was a closed low off the Carolina coast. Across the western third of the CONUS, low amplitude flow extended west to the Pacific coast. There was a shortwave trough present over Washington State which was part of an upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska. Closer to western and north central Nebraska, embedded disturbances in the high plains trough, were present across central South Dakota, western Nebraska and western Kansas. These shortwaves combined with a frontal boundary draped from western Nebraska into South Dakota, producing thunderstorms over the eastern half of South Dakota and northern Nebraska tonight. Another area of storms in association with a weak disturbance over eastern Colorado and western Kansas, was located over Southwestern into South Central Nebraska overnight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Today through Friday...Precipitation chances and a continued severe threat today and this evening are the main forecast challenges in the near term. Residual convection will exit eastern areas by daybreak this morning. The frontal boundary, currently draped across northwestern portions of the forecast area, will lift north this morning, becoming anchored over southern South Dakota into northwestern Nebraska. Later this afternoon as instability increases and a shortwave trough lifts into the western Dakotas and the Nebraska Panhandle, thunderstorms should initiate INVOF the surface frontal boundary. With the front expected to lie over southern South Dakota and far northwestern Nebraska this afternoon, this will be the favored area for precipitation chances this afternoon into tonight. This is also supported by the latest NBM ensemble forecast which has a near zero threat for precipitation generally south of Highway 92 today and tonight. That being said, will go with near zero pops across the southern third of the forecast area with the best chances across northern Nebraska. As for the severe threat, there are two areas of concern: The first over northwestern Nebraska INVOF the frontal boundary, and the second area is across the central and eastern panhandle INVOF of a weak surface convergent boundary. As for severe modes later today, large hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threats as there is adequate deep layer shear. There is also a small threat for tornadoes, particularly across northwestern Nebraska where low level helicities are more favorable. Convection is expected to persist into the late evening and possibly overnight hours thanks to the development of a low level jet. By Friday, the main precipitation threat will shift off to the east and southeast of the area. A cold front will sag south through the area Friday, becoming anchored from south central Nebraska into east central Nebraska by afternoon. South of the front, highs will reach into the 90s and decent southerly winds will push 70+ dew points into portions of central and eastern Nebraska Friday afternoon. The latest NAM12 soln has SB CAPES above 5000J/KG Friday afternoon just off to the east of the forecast area. 4000+CAPES lie along and east of a line from Curtis to Ansley. Deep layer shear increases from central into eastern Nebraska Friday with 25 to 30 KTS noted in far southeastern portions of the forecast area. That being said, decided to confine pops to far southeastern portions of the forecast area Friday. This precipitation threat may need to be modified based on expected frontal position late Friday with subsequent forecasts.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

On Saturday, upper ridging will occur from the Central and Northern Plains into western Ontario Canada. Models indicate a weak upper low over west Texas within the upper ridge. Back to the west, an upper trough will extend over the Pacific Northwest and West Coast. Surface low pressure will be fairly deep from eastern MT south through WY into CO. This will bring windy conditions to western Nebraska with southeast winds 20 to 30 mph. Much warmer with highs 95 to 99 in the west, and low 90s east. Dry conditions Saturday through Saturday night.

Sunday, a weak closed upper low will lift from central Kansas into eastern Nebraska, bring an increase in cloudiness and atmospheric moisture. Highs from the upper 80s to lower 90s, except near 95 far western zones. Meanwhile the upper trough will move into the Northern Plains and bring lows POPS beginning Sunday afternoon, lasting into Monday evening. The best opportunity appears to be Sunday night, when a surface trough of low pressure moves east. Also expecting windy conditions Sunday, with south to southeast winds 20 to 30 mph.

Tuesday into Wednesday, a strong warmup is expected as an upper trough deepens across the Western U.S, and an upper ridge extends from Texas up through the Western Great Lakes. Highs heat up into the low to mid 90s Tuesday and upper 90s to near 100 Wednesday. Breezy south winds each day. Look dry, except for a limited opportunity Tuesday night across the Sandhills into north central Nebraska.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

IFR ceilings continue at KOGA and KIML in southwest NE early this morning, which should remain west of KLBF and improve to VFR by 15Z. At KLBF, expect BKN200 to become SCT250 for this afternoon and evening. Winds to remain light south to southeast 12KT or less. At KVTN, FEW250 with a south wind increasing to 17013G20KT after 18Z. Isolated severe storms are possible across northern NE after 22Z. Included VCTS for KVTN at 00Z until 04Z. Confidence remains too low to include as a TEMPO or prevailing.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.