textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers are expected to continue through the night into tomorrow afternoon across the region. At least wetting rainfall is expected across the region.

- Potential for frost increases both Friday and Saturday morning across the region. Temperatures on Friday morning are expected to reach subfreezing across western Nebraska, with a Freeze Watch in effect.

- Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side through the end of the week. A return to more seasonal temperatures is expected this weekend, with slightly warmer temperatures next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The advertised upper level low is centered over western Colorado this afternoon, with a plume of Pacific moisture tracking across the region. With the jet maximum located over western Kansas, seeing mostly divergence aloft across most of western and north central Nebraska, which will continue to support rain showers. Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across southern Nebraska this afternoon, and should continue to do so through the evening. The main surface low is expected to remain just sough of the region, however, given the upper level support, more widespread rain chances are expected overnight. With the available moisture, most areas across western and north central Nebraska should see at least wetting rainfall. Interestingly, even at this short range, there is still disagreement in the models on how much impact the dry slot this evening will play into rainfall totals. The HRRR in particular remains quite unperturbed, giving most areas half an inch to an inch of precipitation. However, the latest NAM and NAM Nest guidance fall more in line with ensemble guidance, suggesting lower precipitation amounts. In fact, the NAM based solutions mostly cap out at or around half an inch for most areas. Ensemble guidance continues to show very high probabilities, greater than 90 percent, for most of the region to exceed one tenth of an inch. However, the latest run of the European ensembles have decreased probabilities on exceeding half an inch. Even the latest WPC guidance has backed off a bit on rainfall totals across the region. While chances for rain remain quite high tonight and into tomorrow afternoon, may be seeing slightly lower amounts than previously forecast. In general, do believe that amounts between a quarter and half inch are likely for most areas, though there may be some potential for locally higher amounts. Building some confidence in locally higher amounts is the consistency in guidance to provide a region of wrap around precipitation from the southern low along with forcing from a cold front on a northern low. This should provide one more push of rain across the region tomorrow, as both lows track to the east.

Throughout the day tomorrow, something else to keep in mind will be the potential for strong, northerly wind gusts throughout the afternoon into the overnight hours. As the surface low tracks east, high pressure from the northern Plains begins to sink to the south, which will increase the pressure gradient across the region. As this occurs, expect strong northerly winds across the region, with strongest winds around 25 to 30 mph, gusting up to 45 mph. With these conditions in play, highs across the region are only expected to reach the low to mid 50s, which is a bit cooler than usual for mid October (around 10 degrees cooler than average).

Overnight Thursday into early Friday morning, cold air continues to spill across the region following the cold front. Skies are expected to clear across western Nebraska in the evening, which should help with radiational cooling effects overnight. With cold air advection behind the front, and 850 mb temperatures around -3 degC, expecting that we will see temperatures plummeting around the freezing mark for most of the region, but especially areas along and west of Highway 61. Expecting most areas west of Highway 83 to at least reach 32 briefly Friday morning, but areas west of Highway 61 are more likely to see lows at or below 28 degrees. With this in mind, after collaborating with neighboring offices went ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for overnight Thursday into Friday morning west of Highway 61, where hard freeze conditions are possible. Will also continue to monitor the potential for frost across more of the area. However, confidence in where frost will spread is a still medium to low, especially concerning how far east frost may develop. Will continue to closely monitor forecast trends to see if a Frost Advisory will also be needed Friday morning, as well as if an upgrade to a Freeze Warning will be warranted. For what its worth, this is fairly late for our first potential frost of the season, as we typically see our first frosts around September 21, with our first freeze around September 29. In fact, we typically have even seen our first hard freeze (28 degrees or colder) by this time of year, as the median date for the first hard freeze is October 10.

In addition to the frost and freeze potential, the gusty northerly winds will still be present overnight lasting until late Friday morning. This will at the very least bring cold wind chills across the entire region. Expecting wind chills Friday morning will at least be in the lower 20s across the entire region, with potential for wind chills in the teens across the Sandhills and Panhandle. After the chilly start Friday morning, expecting mostly clear skies throughout the day, with highs eventually building into the low to mid 50s.

Skies remain clear Friday night into Saturday morning, which will again allow for cold temperatures across the region. Lows again are expected to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s, with warmest lows hovering right around the freezing mark. With these overnight lows, there is potential for the rest of the region to see frost Saturday morning, so will continue to monitor if a Frost Advisory is needed.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A chilly start to Saturday is expected, as lows hover around the freezing mark, with potential for frost across most of the region. Southerly winds across the region will keep things feeling on the cold side, with wind chills in the upper teens to lower 20s across the region. However, by the afternoon, upper level ridging begins to track across the region, which should usher in some more seasonal high temperatures through the weekend. Typical highs for the weekend are around 63 to 65 degrees. The latest forecast brings highs around the mid 60s to lower 70s, so right around to slightly warmer than typical. This will also usher in slightly warmer overnight lows, as well, with lows Sunday and Monday morning expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

As the northern jet remains north of the region early next week, expect that our temperatures will return to slightly above seasonal average, with highs returning to the low to mid 70s. Also expect to see lows climbing back into the 40s, potentially the lower 50s in spots. This should also keep a fairly dry and quiet weather pattern through at least mid week. However, long range guidance does suggest the potential for another upper level trough to arrive sometime around mid week, which may bring additional rain chances mid to late week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

MVFR ceilings will spread northward across the region late this afternoon into this evening. Rain showers will also become more numerous though the afternoon and especially through tonight into Thursday morning. Localized IFR ceilings are expected across the Sandhills, central and southwest Nebraska after mid-evening tonight. Winds will generally be light, but switch to the north to northeast and increase Thursday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for NEZ004-022-023-035-056>058-069-094.