textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are looking more likely across southwest Nebraska Saturday night. Locally heavy rainfall could develop.

- A warm pattern will persist through the long term period, with highs mainly in the upper 80s to middle 90s.

- Periodic precipitation chances will remain Sunday through late next week, with the greatest chances Monday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A persistent area of upper level high pressure will translate back to the west and be centered across KS/OK by Saturday afternoon. Mid- level sub-tropical monsoonal moisture will flow northeastward across our area on the northwest periphery of the upper high. This will cause a marked increase in PWATS across the area Saturday.

Currently, mid-level warm air advection continues across the area. Isolated thunderstorms have been slow to diminish within this regime. Overnight tonight, a south to southwesterly low-level jet will increase. Lift and instability aloft increase toward sunrise with scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms expected to form across central into portions of north central Nebraska.

By Saturday afternoon, a weak disturbance will pivot eastward across the area just to the north of the high center to our south. As mentioned, PWATS will be very high, greater than 1.5". Numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop across western Nebraska late in the afternoon. Several of the CAMS cluster these together into a small complex across southwest Nebraska during the evening and overnight. Locally heavy rainfall looks to be the main concern. Locally strong outflow winds could be of concern as overall shear will be weak. The last couple of runs of the HRRR suggests some areas could receive 2"+ of rainfall. Will continue to monitor.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Sunday, a strong 597-dam 500-mb ridge will build and amplify across the central United States, while a longwave trough remains established across the western United States. This will maintain weak west to southwest flow aloft across the region. Warm air advection will persist through the afternoon, with 850-mb temperatures rising into the 25 to 30C range, which is quite warm for this time of year. Deep boundary-layer mixing should support high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s across much of the area. A weak disturbance is forecast to move into western Nebraska by late Sunday afternoon into the evening, which may provide enough forcing for isolated showers and thunderstorm development. However, weak large-scale forcing and limited deep-layer shear should keep the severe weather threat low. Some fire weather concerns may develop Sunday afternoon across western and southwest Nebraska as minimum relative humidity values approach 25 percent and southerly winds become gusty. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the middle to upper 60s.

Monday, the strong upper-level ridge will remain centered across the south-central United States while a shortwave ejects northeastward along its western periphery from Wyoming into the Dakotas. Southwesterly flow aloft will strengthen across the region as this disturbance approaches, resulting in an increasingly favorable kinematic environment. Monday afternoon and evening currently appear more favorable for severe weather compared to Sunday. Ample instability combined with increasing deep-layer shear may support organized convection. As mentioned in the previous discussion, a frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area and should provide a focus for more widespread shower and thunderstorm development. The eventual position and timing of this boundary, along with the magnitude of instability that develops ahead of it, will play an important role in determining the severe weather threat. This period will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. Highs Monday will remain in the lower to middle 90s, with overnight lows generally in the middle to upper 60s.

Tuesday through late next week, temperatures should moderate somewhat behind Mondays frontal passage, with highs generally in the middle to upper 80s. The upper-level pattern is forecast to become more zonal with periodic weak disturbances moving through the region. This should maintain at least scattered precipitation chances through the end of the forecast period, though confidence in the timing and coverage of individual rounds remains limited at this range. Overall, confidence remains high in continued warm temperatures, with moderate confidence in periodic precipitation chances through late next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions are likely for much of the period until the threat for afternoon and evening convection arrives on Saturday.

Early on, scattered mid-level clouds will focus mainly along and east of a LBF to VTN line. This same area could see isolated thunderstorms in the early morning hours on Saturday but this threat should remain well east of the TAF sites. Gusty afternoon winds will again approach 20 to 25 knots at both terminals.

Regarding convection, confidence in how exactly storms evolve and where they develop remains limited. This is largely due to the influence, or lack thereof, of convection from eastern South Dakota and whether an outflow boundary settles southwest into the local area. Should this occur, afternoon development will be possible, particularly near VTN. Otherwise, convection may hold off arriving into either site until late in the period and spilling over into the next forecast period. Will account for these uncertainties with PROB30s for both sites including two for VTN. Trends will be monitored through the night with greater confidence expected by the 12z issuance.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.