textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

-Showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist through the night, until mid-day Wednesday across portions of western and southwestern Nebraska.

-Light show showers possible Tuesday night across western Nebraska, although little to no accumulations are expected.

-Freeze Warning late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for portions of western and southwest Nebraska.

-Low to moderate confidence in showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Saturday afternoons into evenings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Showers and some isolated thunderstorms will persist through the day and into the overnight hours. An upper level trough is continuing to dig along eastern Wyoming, intensifying a surface low over eastern Colorado. As this low remains nearly stationary, continued rainfall is expected across western and southwest Nebraska, with showers potentially extending into the Western Sandhills. Expecting total rainfall amounts in the range of of 0.5" to 0.75" in southwest Nebraska, along and south of I-80.

Tonight, temperatures will drop near or just below freezing across western Nebraska. As a result, some showers could transition to mix precipitation and snow showers overnight across the Panhandle. However, given the warmer soil temperatures from days prior, very little accumulations will settle, especially with warmer temperatures returning Wednesday.

As Wednesday rolls in, the upper level low tracks through our region. Showers are still expected to persist until mid-day across western and southwestern Nebraska. By Wednesday evening, an upper- level ridge approaches behind the departing trough. During this transition, cloud cover is expected to clear out of the region leaving mostly clear skies, with light west winds sustained at 5 - 10 mph, promoting strong radiational cooling. Lows will dip to the upper 20s (southwest NE) to just above freezing (north-central NE). Furthermore, NBM probabilities of below freezing lows late Wednesday into Thursday morning reaches 70 to 90 percent across western and southwest Nebraska. The upper 20s lows and high probabilities of below freezing temps warranted the issuing of a Freeze Warning across southwest Nebraska, generally south of HWY 2, and along - west of of HWY 83 late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Strong upper level ridging builds in Thursday with highs returning to near normal in the low to mid 70s. A shortwave trough forms and disrupts the leeward side of the ridge, pushing across western Nebraska. This could lead to some active weather with the possibility of some isolated showers and thunderstorms across western and north central Nebraska. Severe storms are not likely at this time but ensemble guidance is picking up on some modest instability with LREF indicating a sharp cutoff of SBCAPE ranging from 100 to 200 J/kg west of HWY 83. This could help push a stronger storm or two to become severe Thursday evening. Main concerns for any severe storms would be gusty, erratic winds and some small hail. It is important to note that even if any severe storm develops that it will be short lived as instability quickly disperses after sunset. On top of potential thunderstorm activity Thursday, there will be some elevated fire weather concerns. While temperatures will be near normal, humidity will drop to the low 20s over the Sandhills and west northwest winds will be sustained at 10 - 15 mph, gusting to 25 mph.

Friday, upper level ridging regains strength bringing highs in the 70s along with drier air. This will drop humidity down to the low 20s across most of the region. Northwest winds will be on the stronger side, sustained at 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph. This could bring near critical fire weather concerns, especially to any areas that did not receive as much wetting precipitation from system earlier in the week.

The next potential for widespread thunderstorm activity arrives over the weekend. An upper level trough digs south across the northern Rockies. As is stands now, this system looks to be on the stronger side than previous one. A cold front looks to push down across western Nebraska Saturday afternoon to evening, providing lift for any storms to take shape. Additionally, ensemble guidance shows LREF 50th percentile SBCAPE ranging from 100 to 200 J/kg across western and south central Nebraska while 50th percentile NBM guidance pushes more aggressively at 300 to 500 J/kg. Moisture advection from the gulf remains weak at this time, depending on when the front pushes through the region. All is to say that this is still a quite a few days out so confidence remains low at this time. Continued monitoring will be needed for any changes to location, duration, and intensity.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Light rain will persist across southwest Nebraska to include the LBF vicinity for a few hours early in the period. Will cover with a TEMPO group to account for brief impacts. Outside of this, expect low-end MVFR conditions with VFR conditions further north for VTN. Winds will largely be light and variable until 10 knots, with some persistent northerly flow developing by daybreak on Wednesday for northern Nebraska.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Wednesday to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ022-035>037-056>059-069>071.