textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog are expected overnight across southwest Nebraska, the Sandhills, and portions of north central Nebraska. Visibility may drop below one mile at times.

- Light rain and drizzle is expected overnight into Tuesday morning across most of the region. Rain amounts are generally expected to remain light, under one tenth of an inch overnight. The light rain and drizzle are expected to bring wet surfaces, which may see some slippery patches as overnight lows approach freezing.

- A late week system brings our next chances for rain and snow across the region, including potential for thunderstorms on Thursday. Will continue to refine the forecast as confidence continues to increase for this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 254 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A low pressure system tracks east of the Rockies this evening, bringing chances for light precipitation across most of western and north central Nebraska. Forcing remains generally weak, but supportive of light rain showers across northwest Nebraska, and drizzle across the rest of the region. This is further supported by forecast soundings, which show the primary mode of precipitation overnight will mostly be drizzle, with a few hours of light rain showers. While precipitation totals are expected to be light overnight, generally less than one tenth of an inch, the main issue tonight will be light rain causing wet surfaces. Forecast soundings overnight also show surface temperatures generally hovering just above freezing, with overnight lows dropping at or just below 32 degrees. With these temperatures and potential wet surfaces, this may cause some localized patches of slippery conditions, especially in lower lying areas. At this time, not expecting this to be widespread freezing drizzle per se, but more of a localized threat for some patches of ice and slippery conditions.

The other forecast issue overnight will be the threat for fog developing from southwest Nebraska, across the Sandhills, and into north central Nebraska. The influx of low level moisture and very light surface winds overnight underneath a stable layer aloft will allow areas of fog to develop overnight, dropping visibility below one mile at times. With the vicinity of the nearby low pressure system, may also see some drizzle mixing in with the fog overnight, which will also support potential for slippery conditions. Will be continuing to monitor expected impacts to visibility overnight, as fog headlines may be needed once confidence in lowest visibility is increased.

Fog and drizzle is likely to persist through mid Tuesday morning, at which point, widespread light rain showers are expected across most of western and north central Nebraska. With showers expected to last throughout most of the day, this could bring better chances of wetting rainfall across the region, with amounts Tuesday afternoon around one tenth to one quarter of an inch in areas of heavier rainfall. With rain showers persisting into Tuesday night, may see some light snowfall mixing in, especially across portions of central and north central Nebraska, however, little to no snow accumulation is expected at this time.

As showers track out of the region Wednesday morning, will see a return to warmer temperatures across the region, with highs on Wednesday climbing into the 60s. The recent precipitation should be enough to help keep relative humidity values above 25 to 30 percent, which should help to limit fire weather concerns. Conditions remain dry Wednesday night, with lows dropping back into the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 254 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Another warm day is expected on Thursday, with highs pushing into the mid 60s to lower 70s across most of the region. While these forecast highs are already around 20 degrees warmer than average, it is worth pointing out that these temperatures remain around the 25th percentile of current NBM guidance. Long story short, this means we could see even warmer temperatures Thursday afternoon across most of the region, and would not be surprised to see some highs in the mid 70s.

Thursday afternoon, an upper level trough is expected to begin tracking across the desert southwest, which is expected to intensify a low pressure system in the lee of the Rocky Mountains. This system is expected to track across the Plains, bringing our next best precipitation chances to the region. The earliest onset of precipitation is expected late Thursday afternoon into the evening, which will fall as rain. Will need to keep an eye on this system as it develops, as guidance suggests some potential instability developing ahead of the front. This could bring potential for thunderstorms across portions of the region, especially portions of north central Nebraska. Overnight, with cooler temperatures, expecting to see snow mixing in with rain. Will continue to monitor forecast trends at this time, as confidence remains around medium in the development and track of the storm, with confidence remaining low in precipitation type, placement, and amounts.

The system is expected to remain around the region on Friday, continuing chances of rain showers across the region Friday. Currently, the system is expected to track out of the region Friday night, with a drier pattern developing over the weekend. Global deterministic models generally remain in agreement on the upper level low ejecting to the east, with another deep low over the Gulf of California. What remains a little uncertain is the potential development of slight upper level ridging in the northern jet stream. However, as this system ejects to the east, should start to see another warming pattern this weekend, with temperatures returning to above seasonal. Similar to Thursday, the current forecast highs remain on the low end of NBM guidance, with the deterministic NBM hovering around the 10th percentile. This again means there is potential for much warmer temperatures this weekend, however much will depend on the evolution of the late week system.

However, these potentially warmer temperatures this weekend may also usher in the potential return of fire weather concerns. With temperatures again expected to climb well above average, this will support lower relative humidity across the region, mainly across southwest Nebraska. However, with uncertainty still remaining in potential precipitation placement in the late week system, will need to continue to monitor forecast trends at this time. If we get more precipitation than expected, this may help limit concerns. However, if little precipitation occurs, well above average temperatures and low relative humidity may be cause for concern, especially if windier conditions occur.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Active aviation conditions return to portions of north central Nebraska tonight and into Tuesday. Across southern Nebraska and into the Sandhills, rain and fog will develop overnight. Fog could be dense at times with visibility restrictions down to 1/4 mile at times. Rain will move in shortly before sunrise continuing through the morning hours. While fog gradually improves through 18Z, the rain will keep conditions poor with continued visibility concerns through at least 18Z. Once the rain comes to an end by early afternoon, visibility will also improve back to above 6SM. By late afternoon, expect VFR conditions to return. Across northern Nebraska, fog and rain will for the most part stay south of KVTN. There may be a brief period of rain between 09Z and 12Z, but confidence is not high that rain will make it that far north and therefore, has been left out of the forecast at this time. VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF period at KVTN.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NEZ027>029-037-038-057>059-069>071.