textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the northern Panhandle into north central Nebraska. A few strong to briefly severe storms are possible with large hail and damaging winds the main concerns.

- Breezy conditions are expected today and Tuesday across the region. The stronger winds are expected Tuesday, where winds may gust up to 40 mph across the Sandhills.

- After slightly above normal temperatures later this week, unseasonably hot weather appears likely early next week with a 60- 80% chance that portions of western Nebraska reach or exceed 100F Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

An upper level ridge is observed over western Nebraska, with a surface low pressure system observed over eastern Montana into western North Dakota. Through most of the day, expecting this will lead to mostly clear skies and slightly above average temperatures across the region. This will also support southerly surface winds across the region, which could be a bit breezy at times. In general, expecting sustained southerly winds around 10 to 15 mph this afternoon, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Although conditions will be warm and breezy, with humidity remaining over 30 percent and recent rainfall, expecting fire weather conditions will remain elevated at best, most notably across the Sandhills.

Later this afternoon, an upper level shortwave is expected to track through the larger flow pattern, nudging the surface low across Montana and North Dakota further to the east. While this occurs, a cold front tracks across South Dakota, clipping portions of northern Nebraska. With expected dewpoints in the lower 60s ahead of the cold front and highs in the 90s, instability will build across the region, with CAPE values expected to reach around 2,000-2,500 J/kg. With the main upper level flow remaining to the north, however, deep layer shear is expected to be fairly marginal. The relatively lower shear across the region should generally limit severe weather concerns with any storms this afternoon, but cannot rule out some potential for hail with stronger cells. The main threat area for any thunderstorms this afternoon remains just ahead of the cold front, which will mostly impact the northern Panhandle into north central Nebraska. Any storm activity is expected to wind down by midnight, keeping cloudy skies across the region.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, a similar pattern remains. Another upper level shortwave tracks through the large flow pattern, continuing to nudge the surface low to the east. This push is expected to track the cold front through western Nebraska, providing a better forcing mechanism for convection Tuesday afternoon. Again, dewpoints climb into the 60s, with highs in the 90s, supporting 2,000-2,5000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. Shear remains somewhat lacking, with guidance suggesting around 20 knots deep layer shear. This may support a multicell to linear style of convection, especially with the cold frontal support. While the ingredients seem in place for some potentially more organized convection, will need to see how the mesoscale evolves over the next 24-36 hours to get a better idea of the severe weather threat. However, this set up at least brings higher confidence for additional rainfall across the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Wednesday through Friday...Mid-level flow will become more zonal as upper ridging flattens across the southwest and shortwave troughing enters the Pacific Northwest. A more pronounced disturbance will cross the northern Rockies Wednesday into Thursday. This should drop a cool front south through the area and lead to a relative cooldown though daytime highs Thursday and Friday should largely settle closer to middle July norms. Broad height falls will carry through the evening Wednesday into Thursday. As a frontal boundary stalls in the area, periodic rain and thunderstorms are likely through the timeframe. NBM probabilities show modest QPF potential Wednesday (20- 40% to see > 0.25") with further increases on Thursday (40-60% for the same). This aligns with the PoPs from the model blend which peak Thursday PM with upwards of 70% west of Highway 83.

The weekend into early next week...precipitation chances drop off considerably as Great Basin ridging amplifies by early Sunday. Associated high pressure aloft will lift through the Central Rockies and settle onto the central High Plains by Sunday/Monday. Daytime temperatures will jump as a result with values in the low to middle 90s on Saturday climbing further to upper 90s and low 100s by Sunday/Monday. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index continues to paint anomalous values coincident with the ridge axis immediately west of the local area and these should settle further east by Monday. NAEFS highlights geopotential heights aloft nearing the model climatological maximum by Monday morning as h5 heights near 600 dam over Nebraska/South Dakota with a 1 Day/10 years Annual Return Interval. This will also likely quell any precipitation potential while promoting the expected heat wave. Cluster analysis shows fairly sizable spread with influence of the northern stream jet playing a big role in magnitude of ridging aloft. ECMWF remains the most pessimistic regarding expected heat with a stronger disturbance crossing southern Canada Monday, but even it highlights expansive upper 90s to lower triple digits. While precise values are far from certain at this time, the anticipated arrival of such strong ridging supports at least a few days of highly anomalous temperatures... potentially requiring heat headlines. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across northwest Nebraska late this afternoon into this evening with locally gusty winds. Otherwise winds will be south to southeast this afternoon at 10-20 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.