textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon due to a combination of record temperatures, very low humidity, and gusty west winds.

- Isolated dry lightning is possible across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills Wednesday night. A cold front is then expected to pass through the area Thursday morning, bringing increasing north winds and cooler temperatures.

- After briefly cooler highs on Friday (50s), temperatures return back to above average this weekend and early next week. This could bring a return of fire weather concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Additional details will be contained in the fire weather section below.

Currently, temperatures range from the upper 50s in northern Nebraska to the middle 70s across southwest Nebraska under sunny skies. A weak frontal boundary bisects the Sandhills, with south winds east of HWY 83 and west-northwest winds across western Nebraska. Very low humidity is in place across the entire area, ranging from the upper teens to the 20s. Near critical fire concerns will persist into this evening, with light winds being the biggest limiting factor.

Attention then turns to increasing fire weather concerns tomorrow, as ridge breakdown begins aloft. As this occurs, a weak surface low will move east across southern South Dakota, and into eastern Nebraska by late afternoon. As this occurs, a surface trough will push east across the area, with strengthening westerly downslope flow in its wake. This increasing warm advection will boost highs considerably tomorrow, with most locations across western and southwest Nebraska approaching daily record highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. With the very dry airmass still in place, this will push afternoon humidity to as low as 11 to 20 percent area wide. As the west winds strengthen during the afternoon hours, gusts approaching 25 to 35 miles per hour are expected, with the strongest winds across the western Sandhills. This combination of warm, dry, and windy will lead to critical fire weather concerns.

By late tomorrow evening, a subtle shortwave will cross the Rockies aloft, with broad low level cyclogenesis leading to a strengthening low level jet across the Plains in response. Just enough instability exists aloft to suggest the increasing lift provided by the low level jet could lead to isolated showers, and some threat for isolated lightning strikes in the more robust updrafts. This instability being co-located within the hail growth zone also suggest a threat for charge separation in any showers. Though a low confidence threat at this time, little to no precipitation is expected and this points towards a threat for dry lightning and potential for locally higher impacts. This is very concerning given the background drought conditions and approaching cold front/wind shift, and trends will need to be monitored very closely. There will also be a threat for gusty, erratic winds with any showers, as deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles are indicated in the lowest few kilometers.

By early Thursday morning, the cold front will quickly pass through the area and lead to a sharp wind shift from west to north. Strengthening cold advection with its passage and strong surface pressure rises suggest a period of strong northerly gusts across the area. In fact, northerly gusts of up to 45 to 50 miles per hour can be expected Thursday morning. Winds gradually weaken into Thursday afternoon, as surface high pressure begins to settle south into the area.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A much cooler airmass remains in place across the area on Friday, with highs remaining in the 50s. Despite this, humidity values as low as 15 to 25 percent are still expected by Friday afternoon. At this time, weak winds are expected to preclude any critical fire concerns, though trends will continue to be monitored closely.

Upper ridging then begins to amplify across the western CONUS as we head into the weekend, leading to temperatures quickly moderating back to above average across western and north central Nebraska. Unfortunately, with no precipitation expected in the lead up to this, increasing fire concerns look probable yet again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain light from the south to the east of HWY 83 and west- northwest to the west of HWY 83 this afternoon, at 5 to 10kts. Winds become light and variable overnight, before becoming westerly tomorrow morning, at 10 to 15kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Near critical fire weather concerns persist into this evening, as warm and very dry conditions continue. Winds will remain below 20 miles per hour across the area, limiting any critical concerns today.

Critical fire weather concerns are then expected from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska.

For Wednesday afternoon, temperatures soar into the upper 80s to low 90s across western and southwest Nebraska, some 30 to 35 degrees above average. This will combine with very dry air and lead to critical humidity across the entire area. Westerly winds also strengthen tomorrow afternoon, leading to gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour. By Wednesday evening, isolated showers are possible across portions of western Nebraska and the Sandhills. Though confidence is low for now, these showers could present a threat for isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty, erratic winds.

A cold front then passes through the area Thursday morning, leading to a sharp wind shift from west to north with its passage. Strong northerly gusts can be expected in its wake as well, with gusts as high as 45 to 50 miles per hour expected. These winds will gradually weaken late Thursday afternoon.

After briefly cooler highs on Friday, well above average temperatures return for the weekend and early next week. This looks to bring a return of increasing fire weather concerns. Over the next week, no wetting moisture is expected across western and north central Nebraska.

CLIMATE

Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)

Wednesday 03/25

* North Platte 90/84 (1907) Valentine 85/85 (1993) Broken Bow 88/83 (2004, 1956, 1908) Imperial 92/85 (1907)

* If records are hit Wednesday, it will be the 8th day so far this year a daily record high has been tied or broken at North Platte. This would also be the 15th daily record high set at North Platte since November 1, 2025!

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Wednesday to 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.