textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog will remain possible through mid morning across the forecast area with gradual clearing from west to east today. Readings will reach into the 70s for Saturday and Sunday under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Some low cloudiness and fog may work into the area tonight into early Sunday morning.

- The next round of rainfall arrives Monday afternoon and Monday night. Another system mid-week (Wednesday and Thursday) will have to be monitored. At this time, it appears the rainfall from that may stay south and southeast of the area. Near normal highs Sunday and Monday will give way to below normal readings Tuesday through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Short Term...Today through Sunday...Behind an exiting mid level trough of low pressure, subsidence will push into western portions of the forecast area this morning, transitioning into the eastern forecast area during the afternoon hours. Fog will be prevalent by daybreak this morning mainly east of highway 61. As a surface trough begins to track east this morning, a shift in wind direction to the west with passage of this feature, will bring clearing skies to western areas this morning and eastern areas by afternoon. With afternoon clearing, highs will reach into the 70s with some lower 80s possible over SW Nebraska. For tonight, surface high pressure will build from Montana into the western Dakotas. At the same time, surface low pressure off to the southwest of the forecast area, will lead to light easterly and southeasterly winds tonight. This setup will advect moisture west overnight, leading to a decent threat for stratus and fog development overnight. The latest SREF ensembles, as well as the NBM visibility ensemble forecast indicates a strong signal for fog development generally east of a line from Ogallala to Valentine. The combination of expected cloud cover and fog tonight, will lead to fairly mild lows for this time of year. Climatologically, LBF should see a low around 45 degrees for the last week of September. This is 10 degrees below the forecast low of 55 for LBF tonight. On Sunday the latest NAM12 soln retains easterly and southeasterly winds. With this setup, wouldn't be surprised if we hold onto cloud cover longer than what is expected for this afternoon. That being said, the current forecast highs of 70s on Sunday, may be on the warm side and may need to be trended downward if current model trends continue.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Southwest flow aloft begins to strengthen Monday ahead of a closed upper trough that will digging southeastward across California toward the Desert Southwest. Leeward troughing will deepen through the day across the western High Plains, with a moist southeast low- level flow in place to the east of the troughing across the area. Surface dew points around 60F should be in place, which is rather impressive for the end of September. PWATS will be on the increase once again due to a combination of low-level Gulf moisture, and mid and upper-level sub-tropical moisture being pulled northeastward from Mexico and the Desert Southwest. ECMWF ENS average mean PWATS will be around 1.1 inches Monday afternoon. As a weak shortwave advances across the area Monday afternoon into Monday night, convection is likely to develop near the leeward trough Monday afternoon across western Nebraska within the moist up-slope flow regime. Aided by the weak shortwave and a modest southerly low-level jet, convection should grow upscale as it moves eastward across the area Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall rates could become a concern due to the anomalously high amount of moisture that will be in place. ECMWF ENS 24 hour mean QPF totals ending at 7am Tuesday are in the 0.2 to 0.4 tenth of an inch range. The heaviest mean totals around 0.4" reside across southwest into central Nebraska. There will likely be localized heavier amounts greater than 1" in spots. As we move toward the middle of the week the weather remains unsettled. The Desert Southwest closed upper trough will swing eastward toward the Southern Plains. At the same time, the remnants of Hurricane Polo and it's associated tropical moisture, will be pulled northeast and become absorbed into the upper circulation of the upper low. There continues to be low confidence on how this could affect us. The consensus seems to be that most of the rainfall (potentially heavy) will focus south and southeast of our area Wednesday and Thursday. This is largely due to strong northern stream energy (westerly flow aloft) across the Northern Plains. This essentially helps steer upper low tracking in a more easterly direction across the Southern Plains. Will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A stratus deck continues to clear from west to east this afternoon, with the edge of the stratus deck near KLBF and KVTN. As this clears, expect VFR conditions to prevail through late this evening across most of western Nebraska. However, MVFR to IFR ceilings may linger across north central Nebraska throughout the TAF period. This evening, with ample low level moisture and calm winds, expecting fairly widespread fog to develop late this evening into the overnight hours, which will bring a return of IFR to potentially LIFR conditions across most of the region. This will persist through at least mid morning, when better mixing is expected to help burn off the layer of fog.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.