textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain well above average on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low relative humidity is expected across the region, with very gusty southerly winds. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across all of western and north central Nebraska Wednesday afternoon.

- As a dry line tracks across western Nebraska tomorrow afternoon and evening, thunderstorms may develop. A few of these thunderstorms may be strong to severe, with wind and hail as the main threats. However, little precipitation is expected, so any thunderstorms pose a dry lightning threat.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions remain possible on Thursday, as low relative humidity and gusty winds are expected across the region.

- A pattern shift on Friday brings a return of more seasonal temperatures across the region. Chances of precipitation increase this weekend, though confidence in amounts remains low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Another hot day is in store for western and north central Nebraska tomorrow, as temperatures again climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s. These temperatures remain around 20 to 25 degrees above seasonal average. Strong southerly flow is expected across the region, which will bring a shallow plume of Gulf moisture. However, even with higher dewpoints, these warm temperatures will contribute to low relative humidity values across the region tomorrow, helping set the stage for critical fire weather conditions. As mentioned, strong southerly winds are expected across the region, with sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. Given the expanse of strong wind gusts, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and have expanded the Warning across the entire region.

As higher dewpoints pool to the east, very low dewpoints are expected to the west. This will set up a dry line across western Nebraska tomorrow afternoon, which may be the focus for thunderstorm development in the late afternoon and evening hours. Forecast soundings suggest fairly expansive elevated CAPE, with inverted-V soundings across western Nebraska. Shear profiles appear supportive of elevated supercell development in the late afternoon to early evening, bringing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. However, latest model guidance continues to suggest that precipitation amounts will be quite low with these storms, with the higher end amounts only around one tenth of an inch. Despite potential severe threats from storms, any thunderstorm developing tomorrow afternoon and evening brings the risk for dry lightning across the region, with the greatest risk currently across western Nebraska and the Sandhills. Should also mention that this dry lightning threat will also overlap periods covered by the Red Flag Warning!

Humidity recovery overnight remains poor across western Nebraska, rebounding to around 30 to 50 percent. Along and east of Highway 83, humidity is expected to recover around 60 to 80 percent. The poor recovery will support a strong drop off of relative humidity once again on Thursday afternoon, with most of the region expected to see humidity values less than 20 percent. With ridge breakdown occurring THursday, also expect to see strong westerly winds across the region Thursday afternoon, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph, and gusts of 30 to 45 mph. Expecting that the strongest gusts will be across the eastern Panhandle into the western Sandhills. With this combination of gusty winds and low humidity, expecting additional near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the region on Thursday afternoon. Will continue to keep an eye on forecast trends, as additional fire weather headlines may be needed.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

As an upper level trough becomes more established over the region on Friday, expecting a pattern shift to more seasonal temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation this weekend. An upper level low is expected to settle over southern Saskatchewan, keeping the trough in place over the Intermountain West, and bringing a series of shortwaves across the Plains. With this active weather pattern, precipitation chances increase this weekend. Latest ensemble guidance continues to increases confidence in precipitation chances this weekend, with highest chances appearing to be likely on Sunday. Latest guidance from the GEFS and Canadian ensembles bring roughly a 30 to 50 percent chance of exceeding one tenth of an inch liquid precipitation across most of the forecast region this weekend, which is trending higher than the past few days. Showers and thunderstorms may start by Friday evening into the overnight hours. With cooler overnight lows, may see a switch over to snow across northwestern Nebraska into Saturday morning. At this time, precipitation amounts remain uncertain, especially concerning potential snowfall in northwest Nebraska. However, confidence is increasing in the pattern shift as well as chances for precipitation this weekend. As the upper level low slowly tracks into central Ontario by early week, expect that more seasonal temperatures will prevail across the region into early next week. Precipitation chances may also remain in place, especially on Monday, with uncertainty building back into the forecast by Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. Winds remain mostly light out of the southeast through southwest this afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots across the northern Sandhills. By evening, expecting light winds across the region. Overnight, a strengthening low level jet develops, bringing LLWS concerns across most of western and north central Nebraska. By the morning, better mixing develops, causing gusty southerly winds across the region. Expecting mostly clear skies throughout the TAF period, with a few high clouds later today. By tomorrow morning, expecting more cloud cover tracking into the region, with no impacts to ceilings or visibility expected through the afternoon. Beyond this TAF period, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms may bring localized impacts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across the region on Wednesday due to a combination of well above average temperatures, low relative humidity, gusty southerly winds, and dry lightning. Highs climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, and even with moisture advection into central Nebraska, will keep relative humidity values less than 15 to 20 percent across most of the region. Sustained southerly winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph are expected. As a dry line tracks across western Nebraska tomorrow afternoon, expect a potential for thunderstorm development by the late afternoon into the early evening. While a few thunderstorms may be strong to severe, with gusty, erratic winds, any developing thunderstorms tomorrow will have the potential for dry lightning.

Humidity recovery remains poor overnight across the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills, and only marginally better along and east of Highway 83. As a ridge breakdown occurs Thursday, gusty westerly winds are expected across the region, with humidity values once again falling to less than 15 to 20 percent. Additional near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon. Beyond Thursday, a pattern shift is expected, bringing more seasonal temperatures and increasing precipitation chances this weekend, which should limit fire weather concerns this weekend.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Wednesday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.