textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across western and north central Nebraska, with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. Large hail and gusty winds are possible, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday afternoon across western Nebraska, with a Fire Weather Watch in effect Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Additional concerns are possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

- Hot temperatures are forecast on Tuesday afternoon, with highs in the upper 90s possible.

- After one more warm day Wednesday, temperatures will be somewhat cooler Thursday, with a bit of a rebound Friday, before cooler air arrives for the weekend.

- Periodic chances for rainfall return for the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Tricky forecast today setting up across the area. Precipitation chances today and ultimately tonight will hinge on whether or not ongoing convection across the southern panhandle makes it east overnight into southwestern and west central Nebraska. The latest deterministic NAM12, 4KM NAM as well as the 00z HRRR tonight, sustain convection overnight and indicate a messy setup tomorrow with numerous cells in their respective composite reflectivity forecast products. That being said, decided to expand precipitation chances across southwestern Nebraska today. With the forecast leaning toward higher pops and more expansive pops tomorrow, decided to blend in some cooler statistical guidance with the NBM forecast for highs this afternoon. The NBM initialized with 86 for LBF today, with the EC having a high of 84 and the MAV 85. Felt the MET guidance high of 72 for this afternoon was way too low and keyed in on persistent cloud cover and rainfall all day today. Highs were trended downward some particularly over the southern half of the forecast area, on the anticipation of increased cloud cover today. As for the severe threat, this will be problematic if convection persists throughout the day. If a severe storm could develop, based on forecast DCAPE and marginally steep mid level lapse rates, feel the main threat is straight line winds followed by a large hail threat.

On Tuesday, persistent southwesterly flow will continue with a broad trough of low pressure present over the northwestern CONUS. By afternoon a well defined dryline is progged to develop across the far eastern panhandle or western Sandhills. Gusty southerly winds Tuesday afternoon, along with low RH west of the dryline, will lead to near critical or critical fire weather conditions. A fire weather watch is in effect for forecast zone 204 and is highlighted in the fire weather section below. By late afternoon, with the arrival of a decent mid level shortwave and peak heating, the latest 00z HRRR and 00z 4KM NAM initiate convection along this feature. As for the severe threat, forecast DCAPE of 1500+J/KG along with moderately steep mid level lapse rates Tuesday afternoon would lead to a primary threat for damaging winds with a secondary threat for large hail. The latest 4KM NAM does indicate the potential for bowing segments Tuesday evening and Tuesday night as convection traverses across west central into central and eastern Nebraska, leading to a wind threat Tuesday night. As for highs Tuesday, the NBM initialized with hot temperatures across the area with readings ranging from the middle 90s in the east to around 100 in SW Nebraska. West of the dryline, this seems plausible. East of the dryline not so much. Believe these highs Tuesday will be trended down with subsequent forecasts as the degree of moisture over central and eastern portions of the forecast area is too great to support highs in the upper 90s to around 100.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

An upper trough moves eastward toward the Northern Plains Wednesday. All models mix drier air eastward across the area Wednesday, likely limiting any convection. A significant cold front them sweeps across the area Wednesday night. Very warm temperatures are expected Wednesday ahead of the cold front arrival, with lower to mid 90s expected from southwest into central Nebraska.

Thursday, a drier, and somewhat cooler airmass settles into the area behind the cold frontal passage with highs in the 80s. Westerly flow aloft will dominate the upper pattern both Thursday and Friday. The aforementioned cold front stalls across Kansas and tries to lift back northward into the area Friday. This would bring higher dew points back into the at least the southern parts of the area, and could be a focus for convective development Friday afternoon and evening.

By the weekend, some chance for rainfall continues as residual moisture lingers across the area and interacts with several weak disturbances that will cross the area in westerly flow aloft. Otherwise it will be cooler as easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will keep temperatures rather cool. In fact, highs Sunday will likely not reach much above 75 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Scattered thunderstorms and areas of MVFR ceilings can be expected across southwest Nebraska this morning. VFR should develop all areas this afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms should move east into the area this evening. Strong wind gusts will likely accompany these storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Beginning Tuesday and continuing through Friday, critical or near critical fire weather conditions will be possible, especially in fire zone 204 where fuels are ready to burn. Winds on Tuesday will be southerly with potential gusts up to 40 MPH in the western Sandhills and eastern panhandle. A fire weather watch is in effect for this zone for Tuesday afternoon through mid evening. On Wednesday, winds will shift to the west with potential to gust up to 45 MPH. Widespread minimum RH of 10 to 20 percent is expected across all of western and north central Nebraska. Critical fire weather conditions will hinge on fuel status which currently favors zone 204. West and northwest winds will remain gusty on Thursday with afternoon gusts up to 35 MPH. Minimum RH will range from around 10 percent in the eastern panhandle to around 25 percent in the northeast. Friday will see near critical or possibly critical fire weather conditions in the west. Afternoon wind gusts up to 30 MPH are possible along with minimum RH west of highway 83 of 11 to 18 percent. Winds are forecast to be lighter Saturday and Sunday which will alleviate fire weather concerns across the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NEZ204.