textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm conditions continue today and tomorrow, with highs in the middle to upper 90s along and west of HWY 83. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible through tomorrow night, with a few strong to severe storms both Monday and Tuesday.

- Rain/thunderstorm increase Wednesday into at least the first of the coming weekend. Some locally heavy rainfall could occur during this timeframe.

- Near normal highs in the mid to upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday will cool back considerably to the 70s Thursday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Currently, thunderstorms continue to exit far southwest Nebraska, with the associated anvil slowly exiting much of the Sandhills and central Nebraska. Temperatures largely remain in the 70s, along with light easterly winds. Patchy fog has developed across northern Nebraska, and is expected to overspread much of the Sandhills and central Nebraska through sunrise.

For today, expect a similar day to yesterday with highs again ranging from the upper 90s west of HWY 83 to the upper 80s to near 90 east of HWY 83. Guidance has struggled with respect to surface dewpoints the last few days, and does cast some doubt with respect to how high heat index values climb this afternoon. In fact, areas south of I-80 locally approached heat index values of 100F this afternoon. Still believe any threat for heat index values remains highly localized today, and preclude any Heat Advisory headlines at this time. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon, again along a weak surface trough positioned across the Panhandle. With dewpoints again potentially as high as the upper 60s to low 70s, ample instability will exist across much of the area. The strong flow aloft will leads to strong deep layer shear, with long and largely straight hodographs indicated in forecast soundings. Should storms form along the surface trough, updrafts could become supercellular at least initially, with at threat for large hail. Recent high-res guidance suggests a threat for eventual clustering which could lead to an increasing threat for damaging winds. Some uncertainty does linger with the coverage and intensity of any storms today, with the pesky warm air aloft keeping lingering CIN in place through much of the afternoon and evening hours. This again could lead to storms struggling unless a more robust cold pool can be generated by clustering storms. Any storms are expected to exit the area by Midnight, and largely dry conditions are expected overnight. The lone exception would be across north central Nebraska where a low level jet may lead to scattered elevated storms.

The warm conditions hang around one more day for Tuesday, with highs again in the upper 90s along and west of HWY 83. Again strong to severe storms will be possible across portions of western Nebraska as storms form along the high terrain out west and move east. Damaging winds look to be the main concern should they survive as they approach the HWY 61 corridor late evening. A second thread for strong to severe storms may develop across northern Nebraska, as storms could approach from South Dakota. This of course remains low confidence, though strong deep layer shear does suggest updrafts may organize into supercells and eventually clusters or a line with time. Mesoscale details will continue to be monitored with respect to the severe threat on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Persistent upper level ridging will flatten some and translate eastward from the southern plains and more into the southeast part of the U.S. by Saturday into Sunday. Ensemble guidance continues to suggests stronger winds aloft will develop southward from the northern plains as the ridge flattens. A disturbance embedded within the flow aloft Wednesday afternoon...will likely bring a round of stronger and more widespread thunderstorm development across western Nebraska. These will then push eastward across north central into central Nebraska Wednesday night.

ENS/GEFS mean PWAT values will be on the increase Wednesday night though into the weekend as monsoonal/subtropical moisture aloft flows northward then turns eastward across the region on the northern edge of the upper high anchored to our southeast. Values greater than 1.6" appear likely which would be nearing or exceeding the 90th percentile. As several waves aloft cross the area, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely Thursday into at least the first of the weekend. Will have to monitor the potential for some localized heavy rainfall with the abundance of atmospheric moisture that will be in place.

A considerable cool down is also expected Thursday into the weekend. This is primarily due to abundant cloud cover and easterly low-level flow. But by Sunday, the low-levels begin to dry out some as Canadian high pressure settles southward into the plains. Temperatures are expected to be much below normal during this timeframe, with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the afternoon and evening across western and north central Nebraska. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon, tracking east this evening, which may bring localized aviation impacts, but are expected to miss both KLBF and KVTN. Overnight, ample low level moisture and light winds may allow for additional fog development across north central Nebraska and the Sandhills, potentially bringing impacts to local terminals. However, confidence in the spread of fog and visibility impacts is on the lower side at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.