textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak showers and thunderstorms are possible along and east of Highway 83 today. No severe weather is expected at this time. - Upper level ridging begins to build across the region, bringing a warmer, drier pattern starting this weekend. Above average highs are expected, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and possibly lower 100s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A surface low pressure system is expected to slowly track across Kansas today, with a nearly stationary front across Kansas. This should continue to place the forecast area to the northwest of the low, providing subtle forcing throughout the day. General cloudiness throughout the day, especially for areas east of Highway 83, will limit the ability for CAPE to build across the region, with guidance suggesting less than 1,000 J/kg. Upper level ridging is expected to begin building across the region today, which will greatly limit our deep layer shear. Something else to bear in mind is that an MCV has developed across central Nebraska early this morning. As the MCV lingers, this may continue to provide enough support for weak showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and east of Highway 83. However, chances for precipitation to develop remain on the low end, so have generally kept PoPs under 30 percent for today, especially as guidance tracks the MCV to the east. Given the general lack or instability and shear, do not anticipate that any storm development in the afternoon will be severe.

As just mentioned, upper level ridging begins building across the region today, and it will continue building on Saturday. Southerly low level flow will begin to usher in warmer temperatures aloft, but really expect this to ramp up by Sunday into next week. This will leave us nearly seasonal for Saturday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected across most of the region and no precipitation. In fact, this will be the first of several days in this similar pattern.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

With the upper level ridging becoming fully established, expect a warmer, drier pattern across western and north central Nebraska for most of this week. Southerly flow in the lower levels will support warm air advection across the area, helping to usher in warmer temperatures. While some anomalous 850 mb temperatures are expected over the region, latest deterministic guidance suggests this will be generally single digit anomalies across western and north central Nebraska, with greater anomalies across the northern Plains. For our region, this generally brings highs in the mid to upper 90s, with some locations breaking into the lower 100s. With warmer temperatures aloft across the northern Plains, our best chances for breaking 100 will generally be areas across northern Nebraska near the South Dakota border. This is further backed by ensemble guidance, especially in the GEFS guidance. Based on ensemble guidance, tend to agree that the GEFS has a better handle on the expected heat, as each day is expected to exceed 90 degrees across the region, compared to the European solutions which barely see any areas breaking 90. For reference, our typical highs this week are right around 90 to 91 degrees, so it is quite surprising that the ECMWF ensemble solutions are quite reluctant to break 90 across the region, especially given the strength of the ridge. Looking at our local climatology, forecast highs are around the 75th to 90th percentile, which is in line with expected conditions. However, highs currently remain well below record highs, which all exceed 105. That being said, this still will be a stretch of above average temperatures, and overnight lows are expected to eventually warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s, especially across north central Nebraska. While heat headlines are not anticipated at this time, will be keeping a close eye on forecast trends this week as this heat wave develops.

In addition to the heat, precipitation is not expected this week, and conditions could get fairly windy across the Sandhills this week. As southerly winds mix to the surface, we could see gusts of 35 to 40 mph especially Monday through Thursday. With the return of warmer temperatures, no precipitation, gusty winds, and lowering humidity, we could see a return of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions, especially across the western Sandhills into the eastern Panhandle. Will certainly be keeping a close eye on forecast trends this week, as fire weather could be of concern again.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east overnight, with the main area already east of area terminals. Gusty winds are expected to remain in the wake of the storms for an hour or so, before calming to nearly light and variable across the region. Also, as storms move out, ceilings are expected to remain VFR through the night into the daytime hours. Throughout the day, winds remain fairly light, with peak winds across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska, where occasional gusts up to 15 knots is possible through the evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.