textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect increasing rain coverage through the evening Sunday, continuing into Monday and Tuesday with a few embedded thunderstorms non-severe thunderstorms possible.

- Strong northwest winds gusting 45 to 55 mph will overspread the area behind a strong cold front for late Monday and Tuesday.

- Drier weather arrives by late Tuesday with a return to more seasonable temperatures through the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Early this afternoon, south southeasterly flow was prevalent across the area. Gusts were steadily increasing with speeds around 20 to 25 mph. With little change from early morning temperatures, the result has been for steady or even decreasing "feels like" temperatures resulting in a fairly raw day. Temperatures ranged from the middle 50s to lower 60s, which is as much as 10F above normal for the time of year.

Tonight...lee cyclogenesis will ramp up tonight ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance set to cross the central Rockies overnight. The resulting surface height falls will compress the pressure gradient and lead to increasing winds overnight. Current gusts around 20 to 25 mph will increase to 30 to 35 mph with stronger flow immediately off the surface. The resulting warm air advection from a northward lifting warm front will lead to a non- diurnal temperature swing with slowly climbing temperatures through daybreak Monday. This likely leads to the calendar day high temperature occurring close to Midnight tonight for all areas along and east of Highway 83 and even possibly as far west as Highway 61. As this warm front lifts through western Nebraska, scattered rain showers should encounter greater available instability and allow for some embedded thunderstorms to form. HREF guidance suggests MUCAPE values approaching 500 j/kg with the NAM12 suggesting some greater pockets closer to 750 j/kg. While this should fall well short of supporting strong, much less severe, convection, it should be enough to get some lightning and rumbles of thunder in the area. Consecutive HRRR runs advertise this materializing late tonight, perhaps after 10pm CDT (04z) with a quick end as the dry slot arrives. Morning temperatures should be comparable if not slightly warmer than Sunday's highs, with the calendar day low temperature for Monday likely not occurring until the evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Monday/Tuesday...deep low pressure will settle in southern South Dakota early in the day Monday with a crashing cold front exiting eastern Wyoming. With an influx of cooler air from modest Canadian high pressure over the northern Rockies, temperatures will likely fall quickly through the remainder of the day. Though some questions remain about timing of the said frontal passage, most NWP guidance generally agrees it'll be before Noon for areas west of Highway 83 and by mid afternoon for areas to the east. With a deep surface low falling below the 5th percentile in NAEFS climatology, increased kinematics resulting from a tight pressure gradient will promote strong cold air advection. This will lead to falling temperatures for most of the day west of Highway 83 as gusts ramp up markedly. Expectation is for gusts to increase to 30+ mph for these areas with a delayed onset of the stronger winds to the east. As the frontal boundary progresses south and east, it'll encounter richer moisture within the warm sector where instability should be more readily available. The NAM12 solution paints localized areas of 1000 j/kg MUCAPE within a strongly sheared environment. This would support a strong to potentially severe thunderstorm threat but confidence in where storms initiate on the boundary remains low. The latest SPC Day 2 Outlook keeps any severe threat east of the area, which aligns with HREF probabilities. That said, the NAM12 and HRRR solutions prog a further west frontal position which would introduce a greater thunderstorm threat for our eastern zones in central Nebraska. This will need to be closely monitored going forward. Rain will continue further northwest beneath the deformation band with greater QPF/PoPs limited to South Dakota and closer to the Pine Ridge/far western Sandhills. While precipitation will continue overnight Monday into Tuesday as temperatures fall, it's believed that the fall should be slow enough to preclude anything but rain as the predominant precipitation type. Interestingly, the RAP13 suggests some potential for a mix in our far western zones (west of Highway 61), but this remains fairly uncertain for now. By early Tuesday, a dynamic vertically stacked system should be in place over eastern Nebraska. With western Nebraska on the back edge of this system, winds will become the primary concern. Wind gusts should increase through late Monday/early Tuesday where ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) values climb to around 0.6-0.8 with non-zero Shift of Tails (SoT) values. NBM hourly gust probabilities reach 60-80% of exceeding 41 knots by Monday evening with further increasing spatial coverage by Tuesday. Though probabilities decrease notably when upping to 48+ knot probabilities, BUFKIT soundings show efficient momentum transfer potential beneath a belt of h85 flow pushing 40-45 knots. Do believe consideration should be given to High Wind Watches with later forecasts as 50 knot gusts cannot be ruled out at this time. While some diurnal bump in temperatures appears possible Tuesday, it's unlikely to be overly significant and thus high temperatures for the day will likely occur early with values only in the middle 40s to lower 50s. As the main h5 low stalls over eastern Nebraska, precipitation should linger for west central through eastern Nebraska and only once the low begins to weaken/track away do winds diminish and PoPs decrease. Low temperatures will continue to fall and should approach the freezing mark Tuesday night for our western areas but settle in the upper 30s for all other locations to the east.

Wednesday and beyond...convoluted pattern in the extended. Active northern stream jet should settle south again with a secondary low crossing out of Colorado by Thursday/Friday. This southern track will likely carry with it most if not all precipitation potential with it and this is echoed well with the NBM 90th percentile QPF output which maintains dry conditions locally. A steady stream of disturbances will train from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes for the late week and while this will keep synoptic lift absent to the north, trailing frontal boundaries should lead to slightly varying temperatures and low end precipitation chances. The model blend paints Slight Chance (< 25%) PoPs Saturday into Sunday for the area though individual EPS/GEFS outputs show fairly low probabilities themselves for measurable moisture so expect some adjustments with subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An approaching disturbance will bring a multitude of aviation impacts to the area over the next 24 hours.

As early as Sunday afternoon, an expanding shield of precipitation will lift north and east across the area with degrading CIGs and visibility. Later tonight, more appreciable rain chances arrive with a slight chance/chance for thunder as well. Convective coverage should remain isolated to widely scattered with -SHRA/-RA more widespread. Eventually a dry slot will arrive from the southwest and herald an end to precipitation for many southwest Nebraska terminals including KLBF. Though precipitation may end/taper off, winds will increase with strong LLWS for the region overnight tonight ahead of a strong front arriving by the end of the period and strong northwest winds in the post-frontal airmass.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.