textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions are expected (90%+ probabilities) over the next seven days across much of the region.

- Outside a cooler post-frontal day on Sunday, temperatures will favor above normal values for the upcoming forecast period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

This afternoon, sunny skies were prevalent across much of the region. A weak disturbance crossing the northern Rockies tracking through South Dakota was helping drive partly to mostly cloudy skies and some light rain. This will remain north of the area with sunny to mostly sunny skies persisting through the daytime into this evening. Temperatures were generally in the 60s save for our far western zones where a few locations were approaching the lower 70s as southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph.

For tonight...as the northern stream disturbance continues to track across the Northern Plains, southerly flow will persist into the evening in the form of a strengthening low-level jet (LLJ). With any forcing for ascent focused to the north of the area, dry conditions are expected to persist. Modest low-level moisture advection could foster some light fog development in the local area but high resolution guidance falls well short of advertising anything close to dense fog criteria (< 1/2SM visibility). This is supported by HREF guidance which fails to paint any probabilities of MVFR conditions or worse above 20 percent in the local area. So though some minor fog appears possible, impacts should be fairly minor. Low temperatures were trended down slightly to more in line with MAV/MET guidance. This suggests mostly upper 40s to lower 50s.

Saturday/Saturday Night...quiet weather will continue into the weekend for much of the High Plains. Within general zonal/quasi- northwesterly flow, a weak mid-level perturbation will dive east- southeast out of the Northern Plains. This will drag a frontal boundary south, bisecting the local forecast area around midday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead of this front will reinforce greater boundary layer kinematics. This in turn will promote a warmer day with afternoon highs reaching the middle 80s for southwest Nebraska into the the southern Panhandle. Elsewhere, most locations will settle into the middle to upper 70s. These values again align closely with MAV/MET guidance though confidence in forecast values within the cooler northerly flow remain the most uncertain. Though pre-frontal precipitable water (PWAT) values top out around 1.0", relatively weak forcing and a robust capping inversion should allow dry conditions to persist. Temperatures for Saturday night should fall quite a bit as northerly flow introduces drier air to the area ahead of approaching high pressure. Leaned heavily on statistical guidance again with values ranging in the upper 30s in the west to middle 40s east. NBM probabilities of minimum temperatures falling below 40F are fairly limited, at or around 10%, but do believe the setup will favor a few locations seeing these cooler temperatures. For now, do not anticipate any frost devleopment but will need to monitor this potential in the coming days.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Deep troughing will settle just north of the Great Lakes with low- amplitude ridging sitting across the Great Basin. This will promote northwesterly flow. The combination of westerly downsloping winds and the proximity to a thermal ridge nosing in from the southwest will lead to a mild and dry pattern through the forecast period. In fact, morning EPS/GEFS guidance show < 10% potential that any point in the local area sees a tenth of an inch or more moisture through Day 9 (Saturday). A pattern change towards that Day 8-10 range should lead to increasing moisture quality as ridging breaks down over the west and a more southwesterly pattern sets up. A fairly active northern stream jet should allow for multiple disturbances to cross the region, including frontal boundaries which may lead to more variable temperatures, but confidence in precise timing remains low. This is illustrated well with fairly consistent inner-quartile MaxT values in NBM data for Tuesday through Saturday before a large change occurs on Sunday with significant spread in 25th and 75th percentile values.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Gusty south winds this afternoon into the early evening will transition to strong LLWS concerns for both terminals. Have include a mention at both sites with gradual improvement towards daybreak Saturday. Some guidance hints at low clouds and/or fog early Saturday morning but given low probabilities advertised by the HREF for MVFR or worse conditions, will maintain VFR conditions. Skies should gradually clear towards the end of the period with winds veering to the west and northwest.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.