textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are appearing likely for Saturday, as strong south winds develop with the warm temperatures and low humidity. A Fire Weather Watch will remain in effect for Saturday into Saturday evening.

- Well above average temperatures Sunday and Monday, bringing a return of near critical to critical fire weather conditions. Fire weather concerns may continue Tuesday behind a cold front.

- Precipitation chances increase Tuesday night through Thursday. Confidence in the location and any amounts of precipitation expected remains very low for now.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Upper level ridging will dominate the weather pattern through Saturday night. Fire weather concerns will continue to be main story with likely seeing critical conditions developing Saturday.

First today, A cold front that crossed the area early Thursday will bring cooler temperatures to the area. Despite the cooler temperatures fire weather concerns remain due to the very dry conditions across the area. Lowest relative humidity and winds today do not coincide, as the gustier north to northeast winds will be this morning, then decrease this afternoon during the period of lowest relative humidity. Due to these reasons, no fire weather headlines should be needed.

By tonight, surface high pressure will quickly translate eastward across the area. A leeward surface trough will deepen across Wyoming and Colorado. As this occurs the surface pressure gradient will begin to quickly tighten overnight. Winds will shift to the southeast and increase quickly after midnight. Humidity recovery tonight will be poor to say the least, with max humidity values expected to be in the 35-45% range. This will set the stage for a likely critical fire weather day Saturday into Saturday evening. As the pressure gradient continues to tighten, very strong south winds will increase during the morning with widespread gusts to around 45 mph. As the the pressure gradient relaxes some by afternoon, winds do go down some for areas along and west of Highway 61. As humidity values drop into the 12-18% range by afternoon, we will continue the Fire Weather Watch for all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds do go down Saturday night, but southerly wind gusts of 20-25 mph will likely continue into at least the early evening for areas along and east of Highway 83. Humidity recovery Saturday night will only be moderate with max values of 55-65% expected by Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 117 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Much above normal temperatures will persist Sunday and Monday, and possibly into Tuesday. Fire weather concerns will likely persist each day as well.

On Sunday, a weak cold front will move through. The NAM has cooler H85 temperatures and has surface winds backed to the northeast. The GFS is warmer and keep winds northwest. Kept temperatures as forecast by the NBM from around 75 north central to 80 to 85 south. Winds are forecast to be northerly 10 to 15 mph east, and northwest 10 to 20 mph across the west. Lowest RH in the afternoon will be 10 to 15 percent west of Valentine through Broken Bow. This will bring near critical fire weather conditions across the west and central, with wind gusts the limiting factor at this time.

Winds will veer around to become light south and southeast Sunday night as skies become mostly cloudy. Lows will be mild from 40 to 45.

Monday is expected to be the warmest day. An upper trough will advance across Idaho into Western Montana, bringing a strong thermal ridge across Nebraska and southern South Dakota with H85 temperatures as warm as 25C. A surface low pressure center is forecast to move from northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. Surface winds may be gusty westerly up to 30 mph across the western Sandhills and south to southwest further east 10 to 20 mph. Afternoon humidity will once again be as low as 10 to 15 percent west of Valentine through Broken Bow. Critical fire weather conditions may be reached across the western Sandhills, with elevated to near critical across the remainder of the area.

A cold front is shown to move into western Nebraska Monday night, and through the forecast area as early as 18Z Tuesday. Could see a few post frontal rain showers Monday night into Tuesday, mainly across the western Sandhills and northern Nebraska. Currently POPS are only 20 percent for these areas, and NBM probability of greater than 0.01 inch is only 20 to 25 percent. Previous model runs were slower with the cold front, and therefore the NBM forecasts highs from the upper 60s to upper 70s. Gusty northwest winds 20 to 30 mph combine with afternoon humidity as low as the upper teens south to lower 20s north, for near critical fire weather conditions.

A pattern change is still expected Tuesday night through Thursday. A longwave upper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough ahead of this feature moves across the Central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. Still plenty of differences remain between the GFS, GEM, and ECMWF wrt timing and location. While at least low chances (20 to 40 percent) exist, the most favorable timeframe is Wednesday night into Thursday across the eastern half of Nebraska per the 00Z GFS, and Tuesday night into Wednesday night per the GEM across Nebraska. The ECMWF is largely dry during this time period. The NBM probability of at least a tenth of an inch is from 25 to 35 percent Wednesday into Wednesday night. Confidence in the location and any amounts of precipitation expected remains very low for now. Trends will continue to be monitored, but this could at least lead to a brief reprieve from the daily threats for critical fire weather conditions across the area. Highs Wednesday are forecast to cool to upper 40s to mid 50s Wednesday, with 50s and 60s Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

The main aviation concern will be LLWS tonight followed by strong gusty surface winds for the latter half of the forecast. Expect strong to significant LLWS at both terminals, beginning shortly after Midnight CDT. Strongest will likely affect northern Nebraska including the VTN terminal with 65 knot magnitudes expected. Gradually through the early morning Saturday, expect a transition from LLWS to strong surface winds with gusts climbing to around 40-45 knots by late morning Saturday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Saturday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.