textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue this evening, diminishing overnight. While severe weather is not anticipated, longer duration showers could bring locally heavier rainfall amounts. - Conditions begin to dry on Friday, though there is a chance for additional thunderstorms across the Panhandle.

- A pattern shift this weekend brings a return of warmer temperatures and drier weather. This is expected to be short lived, with additional rain chances returning as early as Monday evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Two low pressure systems are observed across the central Plains, with one located over southwest Kansas and another located over southeast Wyoming. These low pressure systems are aiding in the larger scale ascent, causing showers and thunderstorms across western Nebraska this afternoon. The ongoing cloud cover has greatly limited instability across the region, though, so not expecting severe weather across the region for this evening. However, as seen from the 18z LBF sounding, plenty of deep moisture remains across the area, with PWAT values around 1.25 inches. Given the available moisture, these showers and thunderstorms may produce areas of locally heavy rainfall, especially for areas where shower and thunderstorm duration is increased. For most of the area, though, expecting this to be mostly additional beneficial rainfall. As the southern low tracks off to the southeast, expecting that shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to wind down this evening, with perhaps a few light showers lingering into the overnight hours.

Friday, the low across Wyoming is expected to lift slightly to the northeast, tracking a surface boundary across western Nebraska. This should help break up some of the cloud cover, and with the return of daytime heating, should see highs climb into the mid 70s to potentially lower 80s, depending on how much clearing occurs. A push of moisture along the front range is expected to bring higher instability across eastern Colorado and Wyoming, which may bring a threat for severe weather for areas to our west. Latest guidance continues to suggest storms developing across eastern Colorado and Wyoming tracking to the east, but quickly weakening as they track across the Nebraska Panhandle. The westernmost portions of the North Platte CWA remain in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with the main concerns being hail and winds. However, this is mostly expected to be for the storms tracking into our region and weakening. If the storms can hold together for a bit longer, there may be some isolated chances for hail in the eastern Panhandle, but generally not expecting much activity at this time. Expecting any convection will mostly remain west of Highway 61, otherwise a mostly dry day across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Upper level ridging begins to track across the region on Saturday, ushering in a return of warmer temperatures. Along with the ridging, a push of warm air advection is expected, which should boost high temperatures into the upper 80s Saturday afternoon, and potentially into the lower 90s by Sunday afternoon. Ensemble guidance still shows disagreement on probabilities of highs reaching the 90s on Sunday, with the European ensembles still favoring cooler temperatures and a 10 to 30 percent chance to break 90. The GEFS however, continues to indicate a 90 percent chance of breaking the 90s, with the NBM showing a 50 to 60 percent chance of breaking into the 90s across most of the region but especially for areas along and east of Highway 61. As a low tracks across northern Nebraska into southern South Dakota, chances of rain remain in place for areas along and north of Highway 2, but this is generally around a 20 to 30 percent chance Saturday evening. NAM Guidance suggests potential for decent instability and shear, however, a strong cap is expected across the region. This may limit the ability for storms to initiate, but may still keep an eye on storms across northern portions of the state, if the deeper instability occurs. Otherwise, for most of the area, expecting a mostly dry and warm forecast this weekend.

With ridging over the region this weekend, an upper level trough is expected to dig to the west. By Monday, expecting that the upper level low begins to lift north, bringing not only the trough further east, but also a few upper level shortwaves in the larger flow pattern. This will have little impact on temperatures, with highs expected to remain around the upper 80s to lower 90s, which is fairly typical for late June into early July. In fact, our typical highs are right around 87 to 88 degrees heading into July, so even the warmer days are right around average for this time of year. The main impacts to expect with this encroaching trough is additional chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week, potentially as early as Monday evening. The severe weather risk remains uncertain, as even thunderstorm potential remains somewhat uncertain. Much will depend on the placement of the upper level features and associated surface systems. At the very least, something to remain mindful of for those with outdoor activities next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Light rain will continue to impact aviation operations for a few more hours at west central Nebraska terminals.

The back edge of the precipitation is apparent near a OGA to VTN line, though isolated activity extends further west. Believe -RA will continue at both terminals before becoming much more sporadic if not stopping altogether by mid-evening. Concern then turns to the potential for fog to affect portions of the area. Have included BR at both KLBF and KVTN for at least a few hours. This coincides with expected IFR conditions which should see improvement towards daybreak on Friday. CIGs should gradually improve through the morning with a return to VFR conditions for both terminals appearing likely. Diurnal cumulus should envelop much of western Nebraska but confidence in seeing less than VFR conditions remains low.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.