textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall occurring Wednesday into Wednesday night. - Another opportunity for light rain Thursday night through Friday night, mainly across north central Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Today through Thursday...Over the next 36 hours two disturbances, one weak, the second-much stronger, will lead to a decent threat for widespread measurable precipitation across the forecast area. Overnight, weak mid level warm air advection will continue to lift across northern Nebraska into South Dakota. Radar returns as of late evening indicated a broad area of light rainfall across far northern Nebraska. Most of the radar activity however isn't reaching ground level as high cloud ceilings and dry air was present below 10000 FT AGL. Mid level warm air advection will continue into the morning hours Wednesday leading to a continuation of precipitation chances across northern areas. By afternoon, a second, stronger shortwave trough, will cross the central Rockies midday, approaching the front range of Colorado by 00z Thursday. Donwstream of this feature, abundant mid and high level cloudiness will increase on Wednesday. With easterly and southeasterly winds in place across the forecast area, the combination of upslope and overcast skies, will limit the warmup this afternoon. The forecast initialized with the NBM seemed warm and highs were scaled back toward the cooler MET guidance. This seemed to be a good ending point on temps given the low level up sloping conditions and led to highs in the lower 40s in the northeast, to the middle 50s in far SW Nebraska. As the trough emerges onto the plains of eastern Colorado late Wednesday afternoon, increasing isentropic lift and mid level warm air advection, will lift from eastern Colorado into western Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. Light precipitation will develop across southwestern Nebraska, spreading into the Sandhills, central and north central Nebraska overnight into Thursday morning. As for precipitation chances, the greatest threat appears to be from 00z to 12z Thursday. The latest NBM ensemble probabilistic forecast has a 80+ % chance of at least 0.05 inches of QPF for almost the entire forecast area, with the exception of the northeastern Panhandle. Along a corridor from North Platte to O'Neill, the probabilities increase to 90 to 100%. The inherited forecast had a broad swath of categorical pops from SW into NE portions of the forecast area tonight and little changes were made to the inherited forecast. One minor change was to place a threat for thunder in southern portions of the forecast area this evening. This was initialized from the NBM forecast. Looking at the latest NAM12 soln, there is an indication of some negative H800 LI's over SW Nebraska this evening, so the threat for thunder is plausible. Overnight, the H5 disturbance will quickly cross Nebraska, ending up over northeastern portions of the state by 12z Thursday. The threat for precipitation will quickly shift east, exiting northeastern areas by midday Thursday. Low amplitude ridging will build in behind the shortwave trough and in advance of a secondary, stronger H5 low located over the NW CONUS. With the ridge building into the area, warm air advection will quickly increase from SW into central Nebraska Thursday. With clearing skies noted across the southwestern half of the forecast area, afternoon highs will reach into the 60s with lower 70s in far SW Nebraska. Highs in the northeast. will struggle to get out of the 40s thanks to expected cloud cover.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The GFS ensemble brings a closed low into eastern Idaho by early Thursday evening and into eastern Wyoming by 12Z Friday, south central South Dakota by 00Z Saturday and west central Minnesota 12Z Saturday. A cyclonically curved jet across northern CO and the Nebraska panhandle Thursday night will move eastward on Friday, providing upper level divergence. Likely POPs Thursday night into Friday across north central Nebraska. The POPS quickly drop off to a slight chance near I80. Chance POPs across north central Nebraska Friday night. With the area south of the H5 low track, and largely within a dry slot, only north central Nebraska is expected to receive any light rainfall amounts. NBM probability of greater than a tenth of an inch is 60 to 75 percent across far northern Nebraska, to only 40 percent further south along Highways 2 and 91.

Windy conditions on Friday across the west and Saturday across all of western and north central Nebraska.

Friday and Saturday will remain cooler in the mid to upper 40s northern NE, and mid to upper 50s south. Dry and mild Sunday through Tuesday from the upper 50s and 60s, with low 70s possible far southwest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The main aviation concern will be lowing ceilings to MVFR by 22Z, and lowing to IFR after 00Z Thursday. A weather system will bring light rain across western Nebraska Thursday evening, with visibilities as low as 3SM. Winds will increase to near 12015G22KT during the afternoon, then AOB 12KT after 00Z Thursday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.