textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Falling temperatures will allow for rain to transition to snow across our western zones with 40-50% of brief, minor impacts mainly for the western Sandhills into eastern Panhandle late Monday into Tuesday morning.

- Following cooler temperatures Tuesday with highs in the 40s/50s, or 15-20F below normal, temperatures moderate with seasonable values Wednesday-Friday and a return to 70s by the weekend.

- Spotty precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday will favor southwest Nebraska with 50-70% potential for measurable moisture each day before dry conditions resume this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This afternoon, northerly flow with modest cold air advection (CAA) continued across western Nebraska. This was behind a departing cold front and passing surface high pressure. CAA peaked early this morning and has since waned slightly. This and some breaks in the clouds have allowed temperatures over the western Sandhills into southwest Nebraska to climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Meanwhile, upper 30s to lower 40s are expected for areas that fail to clear out. Winds remain gusty, ranging from 25 to 35 mph out of the north, holding "feels-like" temperatures in the 30s for our northern zones all day.

For tonight, surface high pressure will settle south out of the Dakotas and lead to decreasing and variable winds overnight. At the same time, a shortwave disturbance will cross the Central Rockies and bring renewed precipitation chances to portions of western Nebraska. The latest HREF guidance shows more expansive probabilities with a slight increase in mean QPF output. Leaned on this for PoPs with further upward nudges from NAM Nest/HRRR output. This paints low-end PoPs arriving this evening, increasing further to around 75-85% for the Sandhills into portions of southwest Nebraska by late morning. Sounding show top-down saturation through the overnight, suggesting a rain becoming rain/snow if not all snow closer to daybreak Tuesday. Strong lift via DCVA and increasing low- end fgen centered around h7 will promote strong lift. Precipitation intensity may be moderate to high, leading to some visibility issues for our western zones. HREF probabilities of measurable snowfall with less than 1SM visibility tops out around 40-50% for areas west of Highway 83, with greater probabilities near the Pine Ridge exceeding 70%. While HREF ensemble maximum snowfall shows a few bands of snow exceeding 1", probability matched mean output shows much lighter amounts. Given antecedent warmth and marginal overnight temperatures, am inclined to align with the lower outputs and the going forecast calls for a half inch or less of snow. This will likely be limited to grassy surfaces. Even so, folks traveling Tuesday morning across the Sandhills down south towards I-80 should be mindful of heavier bursts leading to some visibility issues and perhaps brief slushy accumulations. Overall though, liquid rain and melted snow totaled together will likely surpass 0.25" for many and approach 0.50" for some thus bringing some beneficial moisture to areas running some of the more significant deficits in the state.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...precipitation potential will linger into the daytime. With ample ice nuclei and a slow warmup to the day, expecting at least a rain/snow mix if not all snow to persist through the morning hours. As precipitation wanes in the afternoon, a transition back to mostly rain appears likely as daytime highs climb to similar levels seen Monday: upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds will favor the south with speeds largely at or below 20 mph. In collaboration with neighboring offices, opted to include a mention of patchy fog Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This coincides with high pressure passing through but timing/placement differences lead to fairly large spreads in short-term solutions. HREF/SREF outputs highlight different areas with greatest < 1SM visibility probabilities but there appears enough overlap to introduce a patchy fog mention. It is possible with later forecasts for the placement to be refined some more, including some removal and additions, so stay tuned. With the cooler temperatures as lows fall closer to 30F, believe some isolated slick spots favoring elevated surfaces could develop so folks are again advised to use caution is traveling late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Wednesday/Thursday...Broad upper-level troughing will extend south from western Ontario through the Great Lakes. A period of prolonged northwesterly flow will reside over the Central and Northern Plains as a result. Overall this will allow temperatures to return to +/- 5F seasonable norms for the region. Precipitation potential will continue as various impulses traverse the area. Flow will amplify as elongated troughing will deepen from the Central Rockies southwest through the Sonoran Desert. Upper-level dynamics will remain to the south of Nebraska and this lines up with greatest NBM QPF probabilities. Even so, around 20-30% potential for seeing > 0.10" does work into our far southwest zones so will maintain the inherited PoPs with the exception of limiting to Chance mention for Thursday (up to 54%). Though precipitation will favor rain the majority of the time, overnight cooling may introduce brief/localized areas of a rain/snow mix. At this time, no impacts are expected from this potential.

Friday into early next week...shortwave troughing will traverse the Southern Plains during the day Friday. Shortwave ridging will quickly develop across the Intermountain West with subsequent height rises expanding across the High Plains by late Friday. This should lead to a break from recurring rain chances in time for the weekend. Temperatures rebound nicely, climbing from 60s on Friday to 70s for both Saturday and Sunday. While this may introduce low afternoon humidities for portions of the area, marginal winds and uncertainty on fuel status limits concerns at this time. Mid-range guidance begins to diverge by early next week as a mid-level cutoff low takes shape near the West Coast and a more pronounced upper-level system dives south out of central Canada. Timing and impacts remain low confidence, however, the outlook tends to favor more seasonable temperatures returning thanks to at least a glancing blow from the cooler, Canadian airmass. Given the proximity of the upper-level disturbance, a continuation of at least low-end precipitation chances appears probable though no signals indicating a more prolific rainfall event are apparent at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Low stratus is expected to expand into western and southwest Nebraska prior to sunrise, and expand to all terminals by Tuesday afternoon. This will lead to widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs across the area into Tuesday night. Rain and snow showers will also push across the area from Tuesday morning into the afternoon, leading to periods of MVFR/locally IFR visibilities.

Winds become southerly Tuesday afternoon, at 5 to 10kts. Winds then become light and variable Tuesday night.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.