textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence in some isolated thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon and evening with a marginal severe risk.

- Moderate confidence in dry conditions expected through the weekend.

- Moderate to high confidence in a return to above normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Low to moderate confidence in near-daily thunderstorm chances returning Sunday night lasting through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Dry conditions will prevail through Thursday morning as upper level ridging remains over the western US and surface high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will begin to warm tomorrow as warm air advection pushes back into the region. Expect highs to rise into the mid 80s to mid 90s which is near normal for this time of year.

A shortwave trough will pivot through the central Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening bringing an isolated thunderstorm potential to portions of north central Nebraska. While not overly confident in development as there is significant disagreements in the CAMs and ample CIN remains over the region well into the afternoon. However, if there can be enough removal of the CIN during the day, there would be a narrow window between 3pm and 6pm for development where a ribbon of instability across southwest Nebraska and into the Sandhills that would support some isolated convection. Not entirely certain this will happen, but any thunderstorms that initiate will be capable of producing some small hail and gusty winds. Any thunderstorm development will be closely tied to diurnal heating and will quickly weaken after sunset around 9pm CT. A dry forecast will then return for Thursday night with lows dropping down to near normal (low 60s).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will keep dry conditions around through the weekend. A gradual pattern shift is expected by Sunday evening as a series of troughs pivot through through Nebraska and the central Plains allowing for near daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. At this time the severe risk remains uncertain, but would not be surprised if a stronger storm or two develops. Otherwise, the only other major concern in the extended period will be the increasing temperatures through Monday. Highs will generally rise into the low 90s east of a Brady to Valentine line. To the west of this line, highs are expected to rise into the upper 90s to low 100s. There is some concern that these highs have the potential to achieve over 100 degrees by the end of the weekend. Latest probability forecasts show the potential of seeing over 100 degrees to be 40 to 50 percent for much of southwest Nebraska into the Panhandle. Elsewhere, probabilities are still near 30 percent for much of the western half of the forecast area. At this time, while high temperatures will be very hot, heat indicies will remain near or below 100 degrees. However, if this warming trend continues and confidence increases over the next few days, heat headlines may be necessary. Warm temperatures continue into Monday, although, they won't be quite as high as the weekend as the overall pattern slowly shifts and some cooler air will begin working into northern Nebraska. Expect a range from the upper 80s across north central to the upper 90s in southwest Nebraska on Monday. Temperatures fall back to near or slightly below normals on Tuesday ranging from the low 80s in north central to the low 90s in southwest Nebraska.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Some lingering smoke in the atmosphere will create some hazy skies through this afternoon across portions of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills, but outside of some minor visibility restrictions, limited impacts from the haze is expected. Some stronger winds could also be possible across northern Nebraska late Thursday morning with gusts up to 25 knots. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the most part through Thursday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.