textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- The threat for showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue today through Thursday night across the area with the greatest threat over central and eastern portions of the forecast area.

- Much cooler temperatures are likely today and Thursday, mainly over central and eastern portions of the forecast area with highs reaching only into the 70s. More seasonal highs are expected over southwestern Nebraska with highs in the 80s to around 90.

- Hot and predominantly dry conditions are expected to return this weekend, with highs climbing into the upper 90s to lower 100s.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

H5 analysis tonight had high pressure over western Kansas with a ridge extending west-northwest of this feature into southern Idaho. Tropical storm Bertha was located approximately 100 miles south of Mobile Alabama. North of this feature, a strong trough of low pressure was located over eastern Ontario. This feature extended south into the upper Ohio Valley. In between this trough and the ridge across the central Rockies, northwesterly flow extended from eastern Montana into the Dakotas and Nebraska. Within this flow several weak disturbances were noted tonight from southwestern Montana into Wyoming. Radar imagery as of midnight indicated a couple of meso vortices, one around Scottsbluff, and a second southeast of Cheyenne. The second area has led to some light rain showers along the Cheyenne ridge. Another area of light precipitation was present along the SD/Nebr. border, but the majority of this has been slow to reach ground level.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Today through Thursday...Precipitation chances over the next 36 hours will be the main forecast challenge in the short term. Mid level frontogenesis will spread east southeast from southern South Dakota into northern and northeastern Nebraska this morning. Increasing lift in the mid levels, will lead to precipitation development, mainly this morning across northern portions of the forecast area. Eventually this precipitation should make it to the surface. Very warm mid level temperatures will limit instability and convective potential today, so the main mode of precipitation will be showers with a limited threat for thunderstorms. The threat for precipitation will wane across north central Nebraska as the afternoon progresses. However, anticipated cloud cover, will limit highs to the 70s in the north. Further south, with more sun anticipated, highs should reach into the 80s today and possibly around 90 in the Imperial area. A second area of mid level forcing will track from northwestern into portions of central Nebraska tonight. The favored track of this forcing is roughly along highway 2 from Antioch to Broken Bow. Again, mid level instability is weak at best given the warm mid level temps and should limit the thunderstorm threat with the main precipitation mode being showers. As for QPF potential with the two rounds of expected precipitation, the latest wPC and NBM forecasts have trended down their amounts with this evening's forecasts. Given the mode of mid level forcing being mid level frontogenesis, am expecting a sharp cutoff in precipitation with QPF's quickly decreasing outside of the areas with the best mid level frontogenesis. Given tonight's GFS and NAM runs, not expecting much in the way of precipitation across far SW Nebraska over the next 24 to 36 hours. Precipitation will shift southeast of the area Thursday morning. With cloud cover persisting across northern and eastern portions of the forecast area, highs again will struggle to get out of the 70s. Late Thursday afternoon, a decent mid level trough will approach the Black Hills and Nebraska Panhandle. Two areas where precipitation potential is highest is over northern Nebraska in the vicinity on the nose of an inverted trough. A second area of precipitation initiation may take place over northeastern Colorado INVOF a warm frontal boundary. This activity may push into SW Nebraska Thursday night. However, this scenario is only supported by the GFS soln as the NAM keeps precipitation south of the area over northern Kansas.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Thursday night...An H7 closed low over south central SD into north central NE will drop southeast into the Mid Missouri Valley by 12Z Friday. This will bring chance POPs across the area during the evening, and the eastern zones after midnight. Model consensus is for most of the measurable rainfall will be across north central NE. NBM 12hr hour probabilities for greater than 0.10 inch is only from 25 to 40 percent east of Callaway through Bassett. Areas to the west look drier with only a 5 to 15 percent probability.

Friday...The upper ridge center will intensity over the Four Corner Region as upper ridging builds back into Nebraska. Sunny with light south to southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Highs reach 92 to 96 west of Highway 83, with 85 to 90 in the east. With dewpoints near 65, heat indices reach 90 to around 95, making outdoor activities unpleasant. Saturday through Tuesday...The upper ridge will remain centered from Colorado through Oklahoma, with upper ridging extending north into the Northern Plains. Mainly dry conditions, although isolated thunderstorms are possible. H7 temperatures around 18 to around 20C Saturday warm to around 20C Sunday through Monday. Mainly dry conditions, although isolated storms appear possible during the late afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday, despite the warm temperatures aloft.

Hot temperatures are also likely. NBM probability of exceeding 100 degrees is from 60 to 90 percent across north central NE, the western Sandhills and southwest for both Saturday and Sunday with forecast highs from the upper 90s to low 100s. Highs Monday are likely to remain hot in the upper 90s, with around 100 possible. Highs may lower a bit Tuesday into the low to mid 90s, as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes with a weak cold front through Nebraska.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions expected at the KLBF and KVTN terminals the next 24 hours. An area of showers and thunderstorms covers most of the Sandhills early this morning, near and east of Highway 83. -TSRA is expected to exit KLBF and vicinity by 12Z. A southeast winds will increase today to near 14015G25KT by late morning through this afternoon and evening, then diminish after 06Z. At KVTN, VCSH until 15Z. There will be low VFR ceilings near OVC035 from 15Z until 21Z with a southeast wind gusting near 20KT in the afternoon with light winds after 00Z. -TSRA possible at KLBF and KVTN after 03Z. Confidence too low to include attm.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.