textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal chance of severe thunderstorms tonight and Friday night

- Heavy rainfall will be possible through the weekend and could see some flood potential

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible late Saturday and Sunday night. While the probability is low, isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

- Below normal high temperatures will continue across the region into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

The main concern in the short term will be the chance for showers and thunderstorms late tonight and again Friday night, along with the threat for heavy rain and flooding potential. A layer of stratus continues across the northern Sandhills into portions of western Nebraska. This has setup a little boundary over the day of differential heating, across southwest Nebraska where there could be the potential for a storm to develop along that boundary and become strong to severe, this is generally south of I-80 corridor, as anywhere north of there has had limited sunshine and will have limited instability. However, confidence is low in thunderstorm development this afternoon into the early evening as shear is marginal. The greater concern will be later tonight as the LLJ strengthens, generally near or after midnight with overnight convection, near and north of the frontal boundary, generally affecting southwest Nebraska into north central Nebraska. The main concern in the overnight will be the chance for heavy rainfall, see hydro section for additional details.

Overnight convection is expected to end before sunrise on Friday as most of the convection should move eastward by then. For Friday cooler temperatures will continue with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. There will be another chance of thunderstorms on Friday, some of which may be strong to severe, but again will generally be a late show, with the "earlier" convection starting mid-evening, but the majority of the widespread convection holding off til near midnight and onward into Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Upper level ridging will continue to slowly back westward into the desert southwest by early next week and transition into more of a zonal western flow by mid next week. PWAT values continue to be abnormally high through the weekend due to a continual southwest flow aloft of monsoonal moisture riding along the upper ridge. ENS continues to suggest PWAT values nearing 2.0" across most of the region Saturday and the eastern part of our CWA in central Nebraska Sunday. These values are above the 90th percentile in climatological normals for this time of year. To take advantage of the high moisture are multiple shortwaves forecasted to move across Nebraska late Saturday and Sunday. This should help initiate some isolated showers and thunderstorms as well as a cold front moving southward by the mid to late evening each day. Guidance currently suggests a 50 - 70 percent chance of southwest into north central Nebraska receiving greater than a quarter of an inch Saturday evening, with that probability dropping to 30 - 40 percent of receiving greater than a half an inch. Sunday is a similar story with probabilities dropping slightly at 40 - 60 percent chance of greater than a quarter of an inch across southwest Nebraska and areas west of Highway 83 and south of Highway 2. Will have to monitor storms closely for any training of convection that could cause localized flooding with soils already saturated from previous precipitation.

As the ridge backs to the west, flow aloft becomes more westerly to northwesterly. While forecasted PWAT values will decrease some early next week, ENS still have values reaching 1.25 - 1.5 inches across portions of north central Nebraska. This would still be around the 75th percentile and be sufficient for a set up of at least isolated thunderstorms. There is still uncertainty if any thunderstorms late this weekend and early next week could become severe but will be closely monitored and refined as such days approach.

Temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side, remaining 5 to 10 degrees below normal through Monday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Highs will then slowly return to near normal for the eastern Panhandle and southwest Nebraska mid next week with highs in the mid 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms return to the region late this evening into early Friday morning. Erratic, gusty winds along with hail will be possible with these storms and may impact both terminals. Expect some reductions in visibility as heavy rainfall is also possible. Some light fog will be possible by early Friday morning causing reductions in visibility down to 4 miles at times. Dry conditions return for much of Friday, but ceilings will generally remain below 5000 feet. Another round of thunderstorms are expected later on Friday, but are expected to hold off until after 00Z Saturday.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Heavy rainfall will be possible tonight into the weekend, with western and southwest Nebraska outlooked by a slight risk for excessive rainfall and the rest of the forecast area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Monsoonal moisture will remain in place the next several days and PWATs will be very high, ranging from near 1.25 to 1.75 inches across the area, leading to higher confidence that any storms that do develop, having heavy rainfall rates. A flood watch may be needed tomorrow into the weekend, depending on how tonight's rainfall sets up, as there is still some uncertainty as to how widespread convection tonight will be and how long storms will be in the area, although tonight's setup is less likely to see training of storms, given the high PWATs, even a single storm could drop a substantial amount of qpf. One thing to note, will be the soil saturation over several days of rainfall over the same areas, although areas like the Sandhills can generally hold around 4 to 5 inches of rainfall before flooding issues arrive, a series of daily 1 to 2 inch amounts, could lead to flooding concerns as we had into Friday night and Saturday night with additional heavy rainfall expected, thus will need to monitor closely rainfall amounts tonight. Areas south of the interstate will take much less and will need to monitor flood prone "flashy" watershed areas, small streams and creeks as well with each convective system the next several days for flooding/flash flooding.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.