textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are possible this afternoon across western Nebraska and the Sandhills, due to above average temperatures, low humidity, and strong, gusty southerly winds.

- Daily precipitation chances from Wednesday through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible given available moisture, however confidence in precipitation placement is low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Today, another round of above average temperatures is expected across western and north central Nebraska. Highs are again expected to climb into the upper 80s to potentially mid 90s this afternoon, which is around 15 to 20 degrees above average for late May. Along with the higher temperatures this afternoon, expecting to see low relative humidity across western Nebraska and the Sandhills, with afternoon humidity values around 20 percent or lower. As temperatures heat up this morning and into the afternoon, expecting fairly strong mixing in the boundary layer, allowing stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface. This should bring fairly gusty southerly winds across the region by late morning, with stronger gusts by the afternoon. Southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected, with widespread gusts around 30 to 35 mph. Across the Sandhills into the Panhandle, afternoon wind gusts are expected to reach 40 to 45 mph. Given the combination of well above average temperatures, lower relative humidity, and strong gusty winds, expecting at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across western Nebraska and the Sandhills. Humidity values, while low, are expected to remain just above critical criteria, so will forego any fire weather headlines at this point in time. However, with these strong, gusty winds, care should be taken with any flame or spark producing sources, as there is still potential for any fire starts to rapidly grow and spread. Overnight, humidity recovers to around 70 to 80 percent, with lows remaining in the mid to upper 50s. Stronger wind gusts are expected to begin tapering off by midnight, though some stronger gusts may persist across western Nebraska until around 3 to 4 AM MDT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

By Wednesday, a deep upper level low settles over California and Nevada, with upper level ridging to the east of the region. With this larger scale set up, a plume of Gulf moisture is expected to track across the region. This appears to be a fairly deep layer of moisture based on forecast soundings. This return of moisture brings precipitable water values around 1 to 1.25 inches across most of the region. While the moisture is available aloft, forcing remains relatively weak, so despite near daily rain chances across the forecast region through the weekend, exact placement of precipitation remains low confidence. Given the weaker winds aloft, any potential storm motion is expected to be slow, which would favor heavy rainfall, if storms are able to develop. This may create more of a "hit or miss" style of rain events, where areas that can develop storms receive meaningful rainfall, and other areas receive lesser amounts. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest high confidence in most areas at least getting some measureable precipitation from Wednesday through the weekend, but lower confidence in higher end amounts, which is largely due to uncertainty in where storms may develop.

By late week into the weekend, the upper level low lifts north, bringing stronger forcing along an upper level trough. This better forcing brings in some higher confidence for showers and thunderstorms to develop across most of the region Saturday afternoon and evening. With plenty of available moisture aloft, this could bring respectable rainfall amounts across the region. As with this entire week, will keep an eye on forecast trends to try to narrow down timing and location, but precipitation chances do look to persist this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. By mid morning, strong mixing develops in the boundary layer, allowing strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface. Conditions become gusty this morning, with peak gusts this afternoon into the evening. For area terminals, gusts around 30 knots are possible this afternoon, with portions of the Sandhills exceeding 40 knots. Gusty conditions are expected to last into the evening hours, with gusts eventually decreasing around midnight, with near steady south to southeast winds overnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.