textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, favoring the Panhandle through southwest Nebraska, with an isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorm possible.

- Well above average temperatures are expected next week. Highs in the 80s are expected, with potential to break into the 90s Monday and Thursday.

- The combination of warm, dry, and windy conditions, will lead to at least elevated fire weather concerns for next week. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday bring the greatest risk for near critical to critical fire weather conditions. The risk encompasses the entire forecast area on Monday, northeastern areas on Tuesday and western portions of the forecast area on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The Montana shortwave, will continue to track southeast this afternoon, initiating convection over the western and southwestern Panhandle in the 2 to 4 PM CT time frame. This activity will track to the east southeast impacting portions of the southeastern Panhandle and far SW Nebraska through mid evening. The latest NAM12 soln this morning does develop a modest area of 300 to 600 J/KG CAPE along and south of a line from Oshkosh to Brady this afternoon. This area is in the vicinity of very steep H85 to H70 lapse rates, of which are maximized along a line from Scottsbluff to Chappell. Forecast soundings in the panhandle and SW Nebraska this afternoon, do indicate decent mid level instability, however low level instability appears lacking with the cold front backing in from the northeast and expected weak low level easterlies. Inverted V type soundings appear to favor gusty winds with the stronger storms, with a limited severe hail threat located over far SW portions of the forecast area into northeastern Colorado. This severe threat appears to be maximized during the 4 to 8 PM CT time frame. Overnight, the threat for precipitation will shift southeast from the Panhandle, exiting SW Nebraska during the overnight hours as the shortwave trough enters NW Kansas and eastern Colorado. Surface high pressure Sunday morning, will transition south of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Light westerly winds will develop Sunday afternoon with cooler temps expected behind the exiting shortwave. Highs Sunday will top out around 70 with partly cloudy skies. Lows Sunday night will be around 40 degrees with mostly clear skies and light winds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Ridging will begin to build into the southwestern CONUS Monday with ridging extending north into the Intermountain West. North of the ridge, a northern stream disturbance and surface low, will track across southern Canada. Southwesterly winds will increase across the forecast area Monday leading to much warmer temps in the upper 80s to near 90. This feature also will produce gusty winds across the forecast area. The latest NBM ensemble wind gust probabilities, indicate a 80 to near 100 percent chance of 25+ MPH wind gusts Monday afternoon. With highs around 90 and afternoon dew points generally in the 30s, critical fire weather conditions look probable across the entire forecast area Monday afternoon. One area which we will need to watch is the far western forecast area Monday with respect to RFW potential. Trailing south of the southern Canada low is a surface trough of low pressure. The latest GFS soln has this feature over the western Panhandle Monday afternoon, while the NAM12 soln has this feature anchored over NW Nebraska. INVOF this feature, am expecting lighter winds which will play into the decision for any Monday RFW headlines. A decent cold front will push into the forecast area Monday night, shifting the winds to the north. For a short period Monday night, we could see some gusty winds with passage of this feature. By Tuesday, the gusty winds will be confined to eastern portions of the forecast area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler with passage of the front, topping out in the middle 70s to lower 80s. However, with very dry air noted behind the front, we could see another day of critical fire weather conditions. This would be mainly over the eastern forecast area, where low RH and the strongest winds are co-located. The latest NBM ensembles favor the highest probabilities for 25+MPH wind gusts over far northeastern portions of the forecast area into eastern South Dakota. Ridging aloft, will transition east into the Rockies Wednesday. This will lead to increased southerly winds across the forecast area Wednesday and decent warm air advection. Highs Wednesday will reach into the 80s for the entire forecast area with the warmest readings in the west and southwest. Winds will be strongest across the western half of the forecast area with decent gust potential above 25 MPH Wednesday afternoon. Minimum RH Wednesday afternoon will bottom out in the 15 to 20 percent range, leading to a decent threat for critical fire weather conditions in western areas. Ridging aloft will migrate east onto the plains Wednesday night, being forced by a west coast trough. The mid range solns show signs low level jet development Wednesday night, driving decent low level moisture into the forecast area for Thursday. This moisture does transition east Friday into Saturday. However, the latest NBM forecast does have a continuation of limited low level moisture into Saturday. This leads to limited POP chances and a continuation of daily fire weather concerns across the area. The deterministic GFS and EC solns have remained consistent with the notion of moisture return late next week, so will not highlight any fire weather concerns beyond Wednesday. With the NBM, unseasonably warm temps will continue with daily highs well into the 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions will be the rule across all of western and north central Nebraska the next 24 hrs. Localized showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this evening across the Panhandle into southwest Nebraska. Later tonight a few scattered showers may also develop in generally the same area. Surface winds will decrease and become light early this evening and continue overnight into Sunday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.