textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is expected for areas east of Highway 83 on Monday morning.

- Light rain and snow is possible on Tuesday across portions of western and north central Nebraska. Any accumulations are expected to remain light at this time.

- Dry conditions and well above average temperatures (highs in 60s) are expected for late week and into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Temperatures currently range from the upper 50s across southwest Nebraska to the upper 30s in north central Nebraska. Breezy northwest winds are ongoing across the area, with the area positioned behind a weak surface front that pushed through the area early this morning.

For tonight, expect weak surface cyclogenesis to get underway across portions of eastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. This is in association with a shortwave ejecting across Montana and into the Dakotas early tomorrow morning. As a weak surface low begins to eject into the Panhandle tonight, a warm front translates east into the Sandhills. Light southeasterly winds overspread areas to the east of HWY 83, bringing weak moisture return northwards. As this occurs over top of areas where snowmelt (and some lingering snowpack) occurred this afternoon, patchy fog development is expected. Some guidance hints at a threat for dense fog near and east of HWY 183, though low confidence precludes any Dense Fog headlines at this time. This fog will persist into late Monday morning, before a surface trough swings through the area and establishes drier westerly surface winds.

Temperatures remain above average for much of the area tomorrow, as downslope warm advection continues across much of western and southwest Nebraska. Highs west of HWY 183 tomorrow climb into the middle 40s to 50s. Lingering low cloudiness will keep highs in the 30s further to the east. Lows tomorrow night fall into the 20s, with patchy fog again possible in portions of central and north central Nebraska.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 330 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The only notable threat for precipitation across the area then arrives on Tuesday, as a quick moving shortwave rounds the apex of an amplifying upper ridge axis to the west. At the surface, a backdoor cold front will usher in a colder airmass into portions of north central Nebraska. Aloft, the H7 trough axis swings through Tuesday morning, with increasing cold advection in its wake. As the thermal gradient tightens across western Nebraska, increasing FGEN forcing should promote increasing precipitation coverage. Forecast soundings indicate rather marginal low-level thermodynamics to lend much confidence in p-type, though there is consensus with respect to steep lapse rates through much of the column aloft. This points towards a more convective nature to precipitation, and this is further supported by guidance painting increasing snow squall parameter values Tuesday evening and night. This is maximized along and west of HWY 61 at this time, though trends will need to be monitored.

As this system quickly departs by Wednesday, a highly anomalous upper ridge amplifies across the Intermountain West (H5 heights approaching climatological maximums) into late week. This upper ridge will remain in place through the end of the week before beginning to drift east into the Plains next weekend. A prolonged period of northwesterly flow aloft is expected locally, along with temperatures moderating to well above average. In fact, H85 temps exceed the 90th percentile by Thursday and remain above it into next weekend. Near daily highs in the 60s are possible, with the signal for the warmest days both Thursday and Saturday. With the prolonged dry and mild conditions, a threat for increasing fire weather concerns is going to need to be monitored closely. The exact degree of this threat will be driven by the strength of wind gusts each afternoon, and lends to lowered confidence for now.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 513 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail into tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Fog with MVFR visibilities is possible east of the KVTN terminal later tonight into Monday morning.

Winds light and variable tonight, becoming northwest late monday morning with gusts to 20kts in the afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.