textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A prolonged period of above normal temperatures and gusty winds will lead to increased fire weather concerns through the week, particularly Thursday and Friday.

- A passing frontal boundary will bring potential for measurable rain (30-50%) across portions of western and central Nebraska mainly tonight.

- Much colder temperatures arrive this weekend as strong Arctic high pressure settles in from the north.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Strong upper level ridging will remains in place across the western US through Tuesday night. This will keep conditions dry and allow for warming temperatures to continue. Warm air advection will push 850 mb temperatures in the 8 to 12 C range into Nebraska today resulting in widespread highs in the mid 50s into the low to mid 60s across southwest Nebraska. A weak trough slides across the northern Plains this afternoon, allowing for some colder air to filter into the region by the afternoon. This may limit highs today across northern Nebraska into the upper 40s to low 50s. For lows, temperatures return to above normal(mid teens) dropping only into the mid to upper 20s through Tuesday night.

The next system arrives on Wednesday bringing precipitation chances back to the region. A weak trough and resulting frontal boundary will push through the central Plains bringing the potential for some significant moisture the much of north central Nebraska. At this time precipitation is expected to arrive across the north by late Wednesday morning with the majority falling in the afternoon before coming to an end Wednesday evening. Some wet snow may be possible early Wednesday across northern Nebraska before temperatures rise above freezing, but otherwise, with temperatures well above freezing during the day, all precipitation will be in the form of rain. Current hi-res guidance suggests precipitation may be more showery in nature, rather than widespread stratiform precipitation. There is even some indication of some weak instability Wednesday afternoon. Therefore there is some low confidence that even some convective showers could develop. While there probably won't be enough instability for weak thunderstorms to develop, there will be some showers that contain heavier precipitation rates. Precipitation comes to an end early evening and therefore as temperatures drop below freezing (lows in the mid to upper 20s) Wednesday night, there will be no potential for any freezing precip across the region.

The other concern with this system on Wednesday will be the potential for some stronger winds as the front tracks across north central Nebraska. The greatest potential for the strongest winds will be across the Panhandle where gusts up to 50 mph are possible. At this time, no wind headlines are in effect, but if trends continue to increase, they may be necessary.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Broad northwesterly flow aloft will persist Thursday and Friday across the area. This will lead to a continuation of mild temperatures and dry conditions across the forecast area through the end of the work week. Highs Thursday will range from the upper 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the south. The current NBM forecast for North Platte has a high of 62 for Thursday which is right at the 50%ile for the NBM ensemble forecast. The 25th to 75th%ile ensemble spread for Thursday is 61 to 65, so feel fairly confident in the NBM operational forecast. For Friday highs will range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in the south. This is on the lower side of the 25th to 75th percentile and may need some upward modification with subsequent forecasts. With the warm temperatures and dry conditions (Min RH Thursday 15 to 25% and Friday 15 to 20%) am concerned about fire weather concerns and achieving near critical or critical thresholds. Hitting these thresholds will key in on expected wind potential during the afternoon hours both days. For Thursday, the greatest potential for 25+ MPH wind gusts is generally west and north of a line from Ogallala, to Mullen, to O'Neill. These areas have a better than 50% chance of 25MPH wind gusts or greater. For Friday, the main area of concern for wind gusts > 25 MPH is west of highway 61 from Merriman to Imperial. In the before mentioned areas, near critical fire weather conditions appear likely with critical fire weather conditions possible (hinges on winds). Elsewhere, elevated fire weather conditions are expected with near critical fire weather conditions possible. Will continue to assess forecast trends as we get closer and wouldn't be surprised if we need some sort of fire headlines Friday with more uncertainty for Thursday.

Saturday through Monday...A mid level trough of low pressure, tracking from Manitoba into Ontario Friday/Friday night, will force an arctic cold front through the forecast area Saturday. Looking at the deterministic GFS and EC solns tonight, there is a 6 hour difference in frontal timing with these two models. The EC is faster and forces the cold front through the forecast area Saturday morning. The later GFS forces the front through the forecast area midday. Regardless, there will be a wide range in temps Saturday with highs in the middle 30s in the north, to lower 50s in the south. Arctic air will remain entrenched across the area Sunday with colder temps expected. Highs Sunday will range from the middle 30s in the east to upper 40s in the west. The arctic airmass will be forced east on Monday as more zonal flow develops across the central and southern plains. Highs Monday will range from the upper 40s in the east to middle 50s in the west. The latest ensembles including the GFS and EC continue to hint at the potential for low chances and light precipitation Saturday through Monday. ATTM, exact details and timing of precipitation along with chances remain uncertain and will need to be ironed out with subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Abundant mid and high level cloudiness will stream into western and north central Nebraska today from the northwest. Broken ceilings of 25000 FT AGL will lower to 15000 to 20000 FT AGL this afternoon, then 10000 to 12000 FT AGL tonight. There is a threat for low level wind shear through late morning at both terminals. Winds will increase at both terminals by late morning with some surface wind gusts approaching 25 KTS at the KVTN terminal this afternoon. Winds will be variable at under 10 KTS tonight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.