textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chances for very light, isolated showers tonight. While chances for rain are slightly better tomorrow and again on Saturday, precipitation amounts are expected to be fairly light.

- Warmer temperatures return this weekend, potentially bringing a return of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns. Concern is highest for Sunday and Monday, as warm temperatures combine with low relative humidity and gusty winds.

- A system tracking into the region Monday night into Tuesday brings cooler temperatures across the region, and potential for more widespread precipitation. However, confidence in the track of the system remains low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Cooler temperatures are expected tonight, with lows ranging from the upper 20s to the mid 30s across the region. Expecting to see increasing cloud cover throughout the night, especially across southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. This additional cloud cover is expected to help keep temperatures just above freezing, mainly along and south of Highway 2. Late tonight, approximately around 3 AM Central, model guidance suggests a weak area of frontogenesis aloft around 700 mb, just underneath an area of remnant instability aloft. With the increasing cloud cover, there is an elevated layer of better humidity aloft. If the FGEN aloft can break into the limited instability and moisture, there is some potential for some isolated vertical development, potentially leading to some very light rain and snow showers. Emphasis should be put on "very light" precipitation amounts, as very dry low layers are expected below the FGEN aloft, meaning most of the potential precipitation is expected to evaporate prior to reaching the ground. While some showers cannot be completely ruled out, expecting that amounts will remain under one hundredth of an inch of precipitation.

However, not all hope is lost for precipitation. A surface low with a nearly stationary surface boundary is expected off the lee of the Rockies Thursday. With this nearby low and nearby surface front, there is better potential for seeing isolated to scattered rain showers across portions of western and north central Nebraska. Again, expecting this to be fairly light precipitation, however, better moisture in the lower levels should allow for precipitation to actually reach the ground. Chances certainly look better Thursday evening into early Friday morning, as an upper level shortwave helps to dislodge the surface low. Guidance suggests some limited instability ahead of the surface boundary, which may lead to isolated thunderstorms across portions of western Nebraska, particularly in areas across the Sandhills. Again, not expecting much precipitation with this system, with amounts generally on the order of a few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch (with best chances for a tenth in areas of thunderstorms). Otherwise, expecting warmer temperatures on Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 70s across southwest Nebraska, and more seasonal highs in the upper 50s to low 60s in north central Nebraska.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Low end precipitation chances remain Friday morning and return briefly Friday evening. Again, expecting any rain during this period to be on the lighter side, with amounts generally around a few hundredths. Fairly seasonal highs are expected Friday, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. For reference, typical highs this time of year for North Platte are around 62 degrees. For the most part, though, expect a dreary day on Friday, with overcast skies and chances for light showers.

By Saturday, an upper level trough is expected to track into the western United States and deepen as an upper level low tracks into southern California. This brings a fairly active surface pattern this weekend, as well as better precipitation chances particularly on Saturday afternoon. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday, and with these better chances for showers and storms, a better chance for wetting precipitation. However, there is still some uncertainty in the track of the low, which is creating some discrepancy in ensemble guidance. While the European ensembles remain less optimistic for wetting precipitation, the GEFS shows a more modest 30 to 40 percent chance for wetting precipitation this weekend.

Also worth mentioning this weekend is the return of well above average temperatures. Again, our average highs this time of year are in the low 60s, generally around 62 to 63 degrees. By Saturday and Sunday, expecting to see highs in the upper 70s to possibly lower 80s across most of western and north central Nebraska. As with some of our previous warm ups, again the NBM deterministic remains to the cooler side of the ensemble spreads, generally at or below the 25th percentile. Simply put, expect that as we get closer to this weekend and models come into better agreement that high temperatures will continue to creep up into the lower to mid 80s across most of the region.

With the return of warmer temperatures, will once again be keeping an eye on fire weather concerns. Much will depend on the next few days and potentially Saturday for precipitation totals. If we overachieve precipitation totals this week and Saturday, there is a chance that fire weather concerns could be lower. However, given the current forecast amounts, expecting that these warmer temperatures will usher in much lower humidity values, especially Sunday and Monday, with afternoon humidity values generally less than 20 percent. Gusty westerly winds are expected on Sunday, with gusty northerly winds on Monday along a passing cold front. With the combination of warmer temperatures, lower humidity, and gusty winds, expecting at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions given the current forecast. Again, much depends on precipitation amounts over the next several days.

As mentioned above, a cold front track into the region on Monday. This is part of a larger system, where a deep upper level trough remains across the western United States, tracking a surface low through western Nebraska. This system is also expected to track Pacific moisture across portions of the region, bringing our next best chances for wetting precipitation. However, there does still remain some uncertainty in the exact track of the low, which will have a large impact on precipitation chances. As the forecast currently stands, this system looks to be one of our better chances of a more widespread wetting precipitation event, as rain and snow showers are expected across most of western and north central Nebraska. However, there is some suggestion in deterministic guidance that the best chances for precipitation remain to the east. At this time, will continue to monitor the forecast trends and make updates as appropriate, as there is uncertainty in the track of this system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. There will be some isolated showers throughout the day, but nothing widespread is expected. Winds will be light and variable early this morning. Winds become easterly through the day, around 5 to 10 kts. Across the northern Sandhills winds will be slightly stronger this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.