textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last this morning, bringing potential for heavy rainfall east of Highway 83. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected tonight, lingering into the afternoon on Sunday. Heavy rainfall will again be the main concern.

- Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the central plains over the next several days leading to a daily threat for precipitation across the area.

- Temperatures will be seasonal across the area with daily highs ranging from the lower to middle 80s in the northeast, to around 90 in the southwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Storms are expected to linger through the morning hours, especially areas east of Highway 83. The environment remains fairly worked from yesterday's convection, and generally fairly stable. However, still have plenty of low level moisture and deep layer shear for some more organized updrafts to develop during the early morning period. The main concern with these early morning storms is the additional moisture aloft, as well as potential for training storm development, leading to potential for locally heavy rainfall. This signal remains strongest east of Highway 83, where soils remain quite moist from the previous few rain events. This may lead to some localized flooding threat, especially in areas where training thunderstorms can develop and in low lying regions.

After storms clear out in the morning, expect a brief break from rain and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy, limiting the ability for strong instability to develop across the region. This may also keep temperatures slightly cooler today, with highs mostly remaining in the 80s, with upper 80s really only along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor. While the afternoon looks relatively quiet, expecting another round of convection to initiate along a nearly stationary boundary in western Nebraska. The main core of the upper level jet is expected to be slightly further east, which may limit our deep layer shear in addition to the already limited instability. In general, expecting this will allow for a multicellular storm mode across the Sandhills and east. At this point, thinking the main concerns this evening into the overnight hours will be potential for heavy rainfall yet again. Cannot completely rule out a threat for some isolated large hail, especially in the stronger updrafts, and strong, gusty winds with the stronger downdrafts. While individual cells may bring locally heavy rainfall, the main threat for heavy rain will be the redevelopment of cells behind the initial push. Again, thinking the greater threat for any potential flooding will be areas east of Highway 83, where there has already been ample rainfall the past few days, with fairly saturated soils.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger throughout the morning and afternoon on Sunday, especially given the nearly stationary nature of the boundary. This may also set up a notable temperature gradient across the region. As clouds should be able to clear across western Nebraska, may see highs pushing into the lower 90s. However, across north central Nebraska, mostly cloudy and rainy conditions may limit highs to only the upper 70s. At this time, the severe threat remains relatively low, but could see some decent rainfall again throughout the day on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

High pressure aloft will remain anchored over the southwestern CONUS through next week. Ridging will extend north of this feature into the northern Rockies. The amplitude of the ridging will be temporarily suppressed Sunday night into Monday night by a strong trough of low pressure traversing southern Canada. As this feature tracks east into the northern Great Lakes midweek, slightly cooler air will back into mainly eastern portions of the forecast area. Further west and southwest, warm temperatures will continue with daily highs reaching around 90 degrees. Readings in the northeastern forecast area will reach into the low 80s Wednesday and Thursday. With the persistent northwesterly flow aloft, and favorable moisture at the surface, periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through next week. As for the severe threat, deep layer shear of 30+ KTS looks probable next week, favoring a continued threat for severe storms daily. With thetae ridging across the western forecast area next week, storms appear to develop over the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming and the western Panhandle almost daily. Steering winds will carry this activity southeast into western and central portions of the forecast area. Based on the latest NBM forecast, precipitation chances are highest in the western half of the forecast area, and this seems reasonable

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the bulk of the forecast period.

Mostly clear skies this afternoon will give way to increasing cloud cover by late afternoon/early evening with gradually lowering CIGs. Convection will develop well west of the terminals and make an eastward push through the evening. Ensemble guidance, namely the morning HREF run, shows rapidly decreasing QPF probabilities on approach to both KLBF and KVTN and this casts some doubt on storm maintainence/impacts at either site. Similarly, late morning deterministic HRRR output shows similar low-confidence evolution of convection with eastward extent. All this to say, confidence in impacts is low so will cover with a PROB30 group for both site as a result.

Following convection, lingering mid-level clouds may presist across the area but should remain at or above 5kft AGL.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.