textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms are again possible across portions of western and southwest Nebraska this evening and tonight. A few storms could be strong to severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Another threat for strong to severe storms is possible Sunday afternoon and evening for areas along and west of HWY 61.

- The unsettled pattern continues into early next week, with near daily threats for showers and thunderstorms continuing across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to exit southwest and central Nebraska early this morning, with any lingering precipitation expected to remain confined to north central Nebraska by early afternoon. The main threat with these early morning thunderstorms looks to be locally heavy rainfall, before briefly drier conditions return for the afternoon hours.

By late this afternoon, yet another round of thunderstorms is expected to form to the west across eastern WY/CO and portions of the Panhandle. Much like this morning's activity, these storms will gradually propagate south and east as they grow upscale with time. An initial threat for large hail while storms remain at least semi- discrete, though this may largely occur of to the west. By the time storms arrive late evening, guidance hints at this being in clusters or a loosely organized line. This suggests that the main severe threat locally would be damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rain will also be a threat, with PWAT values still exceeding the 90th percentile climo across the area. Will have to continue to monitor for a threat for localized flash flooding tonight, primarily in areas that saw heavy rain from this morning's storms across western and southwest Nebraska. Dry conditions return after midnight, with lows falling into the upper 50s to low 60s across the area.

A similar scenario looks to play out on Sunday, with again another round of thunderstorms possible across western Nebraska. Confidence in coverage and placement of these storms remains low for now, with guidance suggesting the greatest coverage further west across eastern and northeastern Colorado. The main difference in tomorrow versus previous days is lessening instability with eastward extent, and any severe threat looks to largely remain along and west of HWY 61 Sunday evening. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats, with adequate deep layer shear (~30-35kts) and modest instability in place.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The active pattern looks to continue as we head into early next week, as upper ridging begins to amplify across the western CONUS. This leads to strong and persistent west-northwest flow aloft. Guidance suggests more than a few shortwaves will progress through the mean flow aloft, with a near daily threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area. PWAT values will also fall into next week, as we lose the monsoonal tap with the transition to northwest flow. Some threat for severe storms will also persist into early next week, mainly across western Nebraska.

Temperatures look to remain near to below average into next week as well, with daily highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s into midweek. Tuesday looks to be the exception to this, with strong warm advection ahead of an approaching frontal boundary boosting highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s. This will keep any heat concerns away, with a pleasant week expected temperature wise across the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow morning. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across western Nebraska late this afternoon, moving east into the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska this evening and tonight. These storms will pose a risk for brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds.

Winds become northeasterly today and tonight, at around 10 to 15kts this afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.