textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is possible tonight into early Friday morning for areas along and west of Highway 83. Visibility reductions less than half a mile are possible.

- Cooler temperatures are expected to last through the weekend, with highs dropping into the 40s. Low end chances for light precipitation arrive Saturday night into Sunday morning across southwest Nebraska.

- Seasonal to above average temperatures return next week. Chances for precipitation increase by the middle of the week, though some uncertainty remains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 209 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A surface high over central Manitoba continues to sink south across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, continuing our pattern of dry weather. Cool air continues to pour into the region courtesy of a backdoor cold front slowly tracking through the region. Along this front, still seeing a localized band of stratus and even some patchy fog which is expected to remain along the frontal boundary. Throughout the evening, expecting this front will continue to track slowly to the west and southwest, eventually clearing most of the region. With this in mind, did make a slight adjustment to overnight lows as cold air advection continues. All in all, this only resulted in lows around 1 to 2 degrees cooler, however, expect most of the region to reach below the freezing mark with low 20s across north central Nebraska.

Overnight, expect another round of patchy fog development, especially for areas along and west of Highway 83. Relatively humid conditions are expected tonight which combined with the light surface winds should support fog development. Latest probabilistic guidance shows a nearly 70 percent chance for visibility to drop to less than half a mile at times. This is in line with the 12Z run of the HRRR, which brings fairly widespread visibility reductions under a quarter mile. Will continue to keep a very close eye on this as we track into the evening hours to determine whether a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed or not. Regardless, drivers should be prepared for potentially foggy conditions and reduced visibility overnight into the morning commute hours.

As the surface high continues to sink south across the northern Plains, expect to see a tightening of the surface pressure gradient across the region. This will lead to some gusty southerly winds across the region tomorrow, especially across the Sandhills into the Panhandle, with peak gusts around 30 mph. Winds are expected to remain gusty through the evening, which will give overnight lows a bit of a bite. While lows are expected to drop into the 20s across the region, wind chills in the teens are expected across most of the region heading into Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 209 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

The upper level pattern gets a bit complicated as we head into the weekend. An upper level low slowly tracks across the Great Lakes with another trough tracking across the West Coast. This trough begins to undergo a split flow regime, with a shortwave tracking across the southern Plains while another shortwave clips north into the Intermountain West. Latest guidance tracks the southern shortwave even further to the south, now expected to track across western Texas. The surface low associated with this system is expected to remain well south, with the bulk of precipitation falling across Kansas and Oklahoma. However, the very northern edge of this system may clip the very southwestern portions of Nebraska, bringing very light precipitation, if any at all. Ensembles continue to suggest that if precipitation were to fall, it would be a few hundredths at most. However, with light precipitation possible, may see a few flurries mixing in, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning. Again, not expecting anything impactful with this, but something to keep an eye on. This complex pattern is also expected to favor cooler temperatures across the region through the weekend, with highs mostly remaining in the 40s.

Looking ahead to early next week, upper level ridging builds in quickly for at least Monday, possibly into Tuesday. This will help usher in warming temperatures, with highs climbing back into the 50s. This steady warming should start with near seasonal highs early week, in the lower 50s, with temperatures rising above normal (highs in the mid to upper 50s) by mid week. Throughout the day Tuesday, a second upper level trough is expected to track across the Desert Southwest, which brings potential for a surface low to develop by mid week. This system is currently expected to track across the region, bringing potential for additional rain showers. Currently, ensemble guidance brings a 30 to 40 percent chance for one tenth of an inch across portions of the region, with the European ensembles showing the higher percentages for this occurring. Will continue to monitor the forecast in the extended period to see if guidance comes into better consensus.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A band of stratus and fog remains along a surface boundary across north central Nebraska causing localized MVFR to IFR conditions. Forecast soundings suggest that this stratus will mostly remain across the north through the TAF period. Otherwise, most of the region will continue to experience VFR conditions through the afternoon. Overnight, additional fog development is expected mostly along and west of Highway 83, which could bring visibility under half a mile at times. Some question remains on how dense fog will get at KLBF and whether fog will occur at KVTN. Will likely be further refining on follow on TAFs for this fog potential.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.