textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to high confidence in severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with damaging winds and heavy rainfall being the main threats.

- Moderate confidence in a continued near-daily severe thunderstorm potential Tuesday through Thursday.

- High confidence in mild temperatures through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Another round of convection is possible late this afternoon and evening as a shortwave pushes into the region and a surface low to develop across eastern Colorado and into the Nebraska/Kansas border. Convection to begin just to the west of our forecast area by late afternoon and gradually move eastward through the evening. While storms my initially be more discrete, by the time they move into Nebraska, expecting them to be more linear in nature, perhaps even having some bowing segments. This will indicate the main threats in Nebraska to be mainly damaging winds as well as heavy rainfall with some smaller hail also possible. While widespread flooding is not expected, a heavier shower may result in some minor rises in low lying areas and small streams, especially those that may have received rainfall over an inch over the past weekend. There is also some indication of some stronger winds with gusts up to 70 mph behind the main precip shield, similar to last weekend. This will pose an additional wind threat even after the main gusts and hazards with the storm have passed. Greatest indication for this feature will generally be north of Highway 92 and west of Highway 97, but the exact locations are still uncertain. As storms encounter more stable air to the east they will begin to dissipate and eventually push east of the region after 06Z. Some lingering showers or embedded thunderstorms may continue through sunrise Tuesday morning, but the overall severe potential will be minimal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Heading into the extended period, the active weather pattern will continue as a series of shortwaves and associated fronts continue to track through Nebraska creating near-daily rain and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week.

For Tuesday, a weak front will combine with ample instability (CAPE up to 1500 J/kg, lapse rates of 6 to 7 C/km) to provide a favorable environment across portions of northwest Nebraska for severe storms. Primary threats with these storms will be large hail, however, some gusty winds may be possible as storms begin to propagate eastward by mid to late evening. Storms will begin to push out of the region from west to east by late evening. Some lingering, sub-severe storms may continue across the eastern half of the forecast area through dawn on Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday, a nearly carbon copy of Tuesday is expected as the front, and therefore severe threat, moves slightly east. Overall, the severe threat appears to be less than the past few days, but decent instability (steep low level lapse rates, moderate CAPE, and some wind shear) will still exist across north central Nebraska. Some isolated to scattered storms will develop along this region with the potential of some strong wind gusts as well as some hail.

Thursday brings another potential for severe storms as another shortwave pushes into the region. Significant instability across the region will provide enough support for convective initiation across much of the eastern Panhandle and Sandhills by the late afternoon. While details for this system are still a little uncertain, the current guidance will promote the potential for supercells producing very large hail and damaging winds. Further details on this system will be provided in the upcoming days.

Temperatures through the weekend remain above normal as continued warm air advection pushes into the central Plains. Highs will remain in the 80s with lows in the 50s through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. There are some isolated showers over north central Nebraska that could cause some very local MVFR conditions but should stay outside of both terminals. Winds will remain easterly through this evening at 5 to 10 knots, gusting up to 20 kts. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon through the evening tonight bringing gusty, erratic winds and the potential for lower visibility due to heavy rainfall. As such, locally MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible until storms clear out just after midnight. By mid Tuesday morning winds will then shift out of the south southeast at 10 to 15 knots, gusting to up to 25 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.