textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence in showers and thunderstorms tonight into Saturday morning with a low confidence in severe storms.

- Moderate to high confidence in severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon through the evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats, with tornadoes being a secondary threat.

- Low confidence in continued near-daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms through mid-week.

- High confidence in mild temperatures through the end of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Active weather will continue through tonight as a trough tracks through the region. Thunderstorms are expected to initialize to the southwest off the Front Ranges of Colorado by late afternoon and push northeast though the evening hours. Currently not expecting showers/thunderstorms to arrive in southwest Nebraska until after 8pm, impacting portions of the region through the remainder of the evening. While the latest SPC outlook still barely clips southwest Nebraska in a Marginal severe risk, the latest hi-res models do show some isolated thunderstorms into portions of the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Instability remains modest through Midnight (up to 1500 J/kg of CAPE), before decreasing after Midnight helping to keep the overall severe threat minimal, but not entirely out of the question. Even if not quite severe, some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing stronger winds or small hail as well as lightning. After midnight, thunderstorms will weaken and the severe threat will diminish.

Increased low level moisture north central Nebraska combined with light winds will allow for fog development once again tonight/Saturday morning. At this time, anticipating fog to remain patchy with visibilities remaining above 5 miles. However, the latest probabilities suggest seeing less than miles is near 30 percent at times. Therefore, would not be surprised to see some lower visibilities especially in low lying areas and in river valleys. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions if traveling Friday morning. Any fog that does develop will be slow to lift Saturday morning as increased moisture remains across the region.

Warm air advection will continue through tonight keeping 850 mb temperatures in the 14 to 20 C range through Saturday morning. Therefore, this warmer air in combination with mostly cloudy skies overnight, will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 50s across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

The greatest potential for severe storms in the next week will occur on Saturday afternoon and evening as a mid level trough pushes across Nebraska. In addition to this, a dry line will be present across the region which will help to create a steep gradient of dewpoints and moisture across the front. With increased moisture across portions of our forecast area combined with modest instability (CAPE values potentially above 3000 J/kg, lapse rates near 7 to 9 C/km, and 0-6 km shear up to 50 knots), a favorable environment will exist for severe thunderstorm development by Saturday afternoon and into the evening. While the environment remains favorable, some lingering fog and stratus through much of the morning as well as where the dry line sets up will determine greatly if storms develop as well as the location. If storms develop, the potential for them to become severe is high with the main threats being large hail (at least 2 inches in diameter) and strong winds (at least 65 mph) with even tornadoes being possible. There is still significant inconsistency in the models due to the conditional nature of this event with several still showing little in the way of storm development at all. Despite this, will continue to emphasize the severe potential as SPC guidance supports a similar thinking highlighting much of north central Nebraska in a slight risk Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will continue to be monitored closely over the next forecast cycle with additional adjustments to the forecast likely.

Another round of convection is possible on Sunday as the severe threat shifts slightly to the east. A shortwave will push through northern and eastern Nebraska on Sunday afternoon combining with a dryline across central Nebraska providing a favorable environment for convective initiation. Development will be primarily focused along and to the east of this dryline (mainly east of US-83) where the best moisture will be present. Not expecting widespread severe as in the previous day, but some isolated strong to briefly severe storms will be possible before pushing to the east out of our area.

Beyond Sunday, the active weather pattern will continue as shortwaves continue to track through Nebraska creating near-daily rain and thunderstorm chances through mid-week. At this time the severe risk remains uncertain, but with mild temperatures in the 80s though much of the week and some instability across the region, a stronger to briefly severe storm will be entirely possible especially in the afternoon and evening. Stay tuned as we will continue to monitor the environment headed into next week for the severe potential.

Temperatures through the extended period remain warm and mild as continued WAA pushes into the central Plains. Highs will remain in the 80s with lows in the low to mid 50s through next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

An area of MVFR and IFR ceilings will develop across much of central into north central Nebraska overnight and then dissipate Saturday morning. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms will locally gusty winds will be likely across southwest into portions of the Sandhills and central Nebraska through this evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.