textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather concerns will highlight today and tomorrow.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas along and north of I- 80 today and a Fire Weather Watch for portions of the area north of I-80 on Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Fire weather concerns will be front and center the next couple of days across western and north central Nebraska. Southwest flow aloft will continue across the area through Monday between upper riding across the eastern CONUS and a trough across the west.

Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for areas along and north of I-80 for this afternoon. Very warm temperatures are expected today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Regional sounding profiles indicate a very deep mixed layer, with gusty west winds expected across the Red Flag Warning area. After interrogation of sounding profiles and O'Neill and Broken Bow, decided a need to add that area (Fire Weather Zone (FWZ) 209) to the Red Flag Warning today. The stronger winds look to remain in the northern part of 209 around the O'Neill area. Otherwise, the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, as well as the Panhandle should see frequent gusts over 25 mph and potentially in the 30-35 mph range. All of this will combine with very low humidity (as low as 11% across portions of the Panhandle) and 12-18% elsewhere. Winds quickly decrease this evening and actually shift to the southeast. This will draw higher humidity northwest into central and portions of eastern north central Nebraska (FWZ 209) with very good humidity recovery in the 85-100% range. Across farther west humidity will be moderate at best, generally in the 55-65% range.

A similar set-up is expected Monday. A surface trough will move eastward across the area during the morning, with an area of surface low pressure deepening across northeast Nebraska through the day. Gusty west winds will again develop across the Sandhills, parts of north central and the Panhandle. Again it appears that southwest Nebraska will be spared from the stronger winds. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon and evening where conditions look most favorable, which includes the Panhandle, and the Sandhills and parts of north central Nebraska.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A frontal boundary will stall across southern Nebraska Tuesday. By afternoon, weak mid level forcing will ride northeast from Colorado into southwestern and western Nebraska Tuesday afternoon. This mid level forcing will lead to an increased threat for precipitation Tuesday into Tuesday night. Probabilities for measurable precipitation look promising and are at 40 to 60+ percent per the latest NBM ensembles. However when QPF thresholds are increased to a tenth of an inch, probabilities of exceedance fall off to 20 to 30 percent across the area. As for pops, brought them down from the initialized NBM forecast and limited them to a max of 60 percent, mainly over the west and far southwest. The deterministic solns, including the EC from 12z yesterday and the 18z NAM soln. look promising for decent QPF across portions of the area. However, the latest 00z NAM soln has shifted the best mid level lift further south, encompassing southwestern into south central Nebraska. The upper level shortwave responsible for precipitation chances Tuesday, will shift east of the area on Wednesday. In the wake of this feature, highs will top out around the 70 degree mark. This is cooler than in previous forecasts and will result in higher minimum RH Wednesday afternoon. Such is the increase in RH, believe, near critical fire weather concerns are no longer an issue Wednesday. By Thursday, an approaching trough of low pressure aloft will enter the northwestern CONUS. This feature will force a cold front into the northern Rockies and North Dakota Thursday afternoon. South of the front, very warm air will push into the forecast area Thursday afternoon. Highs will reach into the lower 80s across the forecast area and resultant minimum RH will bottom out at 15 to 20 percent Thursday afternoon. Current forecast wind gusts are in the 15 to 25 MPH range, so near critical or critical fire weather conditions are possible Thursday. The front will track through the area Thursday night. There will be three chances for precipitation Thursday night into Saturday. The first episode will be with the surface frontal passage Thursday night, the second being post frontal precipitation Friday/Friday night and the third threat being Saturday, as the main upper level trough transitions across the central and northern plains. Temperatures will be much cooler Friday and Saturday with mainly 50s on Friday and 40s/lower 50s for Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon.

Diurnal cloud cover should develop this afternoon but remain at or above 10kft AGL. Persistent westerly gusts will continue in the 20 to 30 knot range, strongest north of the Platte River system (OGA to LBF line). Winds should subside quickly this evening with variable directions and less than 10 knots likely for both terminals. As high level clouds stream in, westerly winds should redevelop with strong gusts favoring the Sandhills and north central Nebraska terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-208-209. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NEZ204-206-208.