textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Light precipitation is possible along the Highway 20 corridor this morning. While little precipitation is expected, freezing drizzle may be possible for a few hours this morning. Little to no ice is expected.

- Critical fire weather conditions are again expected across western and north central Nebraska today, due to a combination of warm temperatures, gusty winds, and low relative humidity. Critical conditions again appear possible for western Nebraska on Wednesday.

- Warm and dry conditions persist through the end of the week, with daytime highs pushing the 80s to near 90F by Saturday.

- A crashing cool front sometime late Saturday should bring a brief period of strong northerly winds and more seasonable temperatures to start next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A warm front tracks through northern Nebraska this morning, which may provide sufficient forcing for some light precipitation along and north of the Highway 20 corridor. Confidence in precipitation remains low, so have trimmed PoP mentions even further with this forecast cycle. Bufkit soundings do show a noticeable warm nose aloft with the warm front, with freezing surfaces at the surface. This introduces a slight chance for freezing drizzle just ahead of the front. However, most of the high resolution guidance remains very reluctant to bring precipitation into northern Nebraska, with "high end" amounts being around one one hundredth of an inch. While there is some moisture aloft, forecast soundings remain quite dry at the lower layers, suggesting any precipitation falling will likely evaporate prior to hitting the ground. Assuming the lower layer of the atmosphere can moisten enough to allow for precipitation, again, expecting very little liquid precipitation, but there would be a period for transitioning precipitation types. Will leave the precipitation mention in the forecast in case the environment can support precipitation reaching the ground, with the most likely timing of precipitation type and timing. Again, expect very little, potentially nothing at all, to reach the surface early this morning.

The bigger concern today will be behind the warm front. Temperatures behind the front return to well above normal, with highs across southwest Nebraska potentially breaking into the low to mid 70s. Expecting poor overnight humidity recovery across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, which will contribute to relative humidity values between 20 to 25 percent, with some local drops under 20 percent. However, another bout of stronger winds is expected today, which raises the concern for critical fire weather conditions. Westerly winds this morning become more northwesterly by the afternoon, with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph and peak gusts up to 45 mph. Given the strength of the winds, will maintain the inherited Red Flag Warning across most of western and north central Nebraska.

As for tonight, expecting relatively mild conditions across the region, with overnight lows in the mid 30s. Winds decrease for a period overnight, remaining out of the west. Also expecting better humidity recovery overnight, with maximum relative humidity values in the 70 to 80 percent range.

Mild overnight temperatures tonight will help set the stage for an even warmer day on Wednesday. A strong upper level ridge tracks across the region, with very warm 850 mb temperatures around 20 DegC or warmer. All of this combined with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will allow for temperatures to climb Wednesday afternoon. Continue to make slight trends towards warmer temperatures for Wednesday, with highs in the 70s across the entire region, and potential for some highs in the 80s across southwest Nebraska and portions of the Panhandle. Again, expecting that warm temperatures will contribute to lower relative humidity values across the region, with lowest humidity values in the 15 to 20 percent range (generally where highs will be at or above 80 degrees). Guidance continues to suggest decent mixing in the boundary layer, leading to west to northwest winds around 10 to 20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. This will bring yet another day of potential critical fire weather conditions.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The extended forecast period remains largely unchanged from recent thinking with building heat and continued fire weather concerns.

Thursday through Saturday...dry weather will persist into the late week as upper ridging builds across the Desert Southwest. At the same time, thermal ridging will push onto the central and southern High Plains with h7 temperatures approaching 8-10C, or nearing the 99th percentile in NAEFS guidance, and h10-h5 thickness values exceeding 560 dam, by later Friday. The result is highs reaching the upper 70s to middle 80s Thursday/Friday but climbing further into the 80s to near 90F for Saturday. This overall aligns with the latest ECWMF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) which shows expansive +0.8 values and Shift of Tails (SoT) of 1. This matches EPS/GEFS thinking with the greatest probabilities of exceeding 90F daytime highs, peaking south of Interstate 80 to varying confidence levels from each respective output. Whether temperatures reach the upper 80s or lower 90s, it will be very warm for late March with anomalies exceeding +25-30F across the whole of Nebraska. Upper ridge axis appears set to extend across the Plains Saturday with subsequent ridge breakdown. So after the hot day, a cold front will quickly settle south into the area. Extended guidance seems to be honing in on Saturday evening for frontal passage with strong to potentially significant wind gusts behind it. This will need closely monitored going forward as some signals suggest gusts could easily exceed 40 mph during the overnight hours.

Sunday and beyond...frontal passage from Saturday night is largely expected to be dry, however, the incoming airmass will push temperatures back to more seasonable levels to start next week. While NBM spread remains fairly large, median values settle into the upper 50s to lower 60s. These values are more typical to what we see in late March, though they still may reach 5-10F above normal. NBM higher percentile outputs remain largely void of any appreciable precipitation potential. Toward the Monday-Tuesday time frame, EPS/GEFS show a small signal for a light precipitation event across much of Nebraska. This lines up with a weak trough crossing the Central Plains but antecedent conditions do not support good moisture quality in the environment ahead of this feature so any precipitation will likely remain on the light side. Temperatures will climb slightly through the end of the forecast period and should reach well above normal levels towards the middle of next week. Large scale troughing may set up over the western CONUS around this time and could promote greater precipitation potential in the Day 8-12 timeframe but confidence remains low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Increasing cloud cover and the threat for light wintry precipitation will be the main aviation concerns over the next 24 hours.

A passing warm front will promote light precipitation potential for northern Nebraska towards daybreak Tuesday. This may fall as SN and/or FZDZ but confidence in occurrence is low. Will insert a brief mention, however, with minor impacts possible and amend later as necessary. What appears more probable is low-end MVFR and even IFR CIGs at VTN and will carry a short mention before conditions return to VFR. Clouds should gradually scour out during the late afternoon though skies will likely remain partly to mostly cloudy into Tuesday evening. Have added a mention of LLWS for both terminals as daytime gusty winds decrease at the surface but winds off the surface persist through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect Tuesday for much of central and western Nebraska as critical fire weather conditions are expected. A near repeat appears possible Wednesday for western Nebraska into the Panhandle and has prompted the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for Zones 204, 206, and 210.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...early this morning, humidity recovery has been very poor with many locations across the LBF forecast area reporting 25-45% RH as of approximately 3am CDT. Southerly flow has developed across the area in response to weak high pressure shifting east of the area. Winds off the surface have increased as a result, with KLNX VWP data suggesting veering winds at or around 20 knots just off the surface. This is largely due to a passing warm front and will lead to low-end precipitation chances favoring northern Nebraska this morning and much warmer temperatures across the area today. Precipitation potential will be anything but impressive, potentially falling as a wintry mix but with limited impacts. Short term ensemble guidance paints near 60% potential for measurable moisture along the Highway 20 corridor but these probabilities fall to 30% or less for Highway 2 and points south. So even in the most optimistic outlook, moisture will be scant and unlikely to play a big role in the fire weather conditions. This afternoon, a surface low across North Dakota will drag a surface trough west off the higher terrain. Low-level dew points should actually increase following passage of this feature, potentially climbing into the low to middle 30s. This will be counteracted by strengthening westerly flow which will promote deep mixing and erosion of clouds across the Panhandle into our western zones. Winds should climb quickly once the wind shift line passes and gusts should surpass 30 mph and potentially climb up to 45 mph over the western Sandhills into southwest Nebraska. Though the increased moisture should prevent humidity minimums from reaching critical levels, the expected magnitude of winds with 20-30% RH supports issuance of a Red Flag Warning. Persistent overnight winds may keep the lower boundary layer mixed out and sustain some gusts into the overnight hours. Humidity recovery may be hampered as a result and to what magnitude this occurs will need investigated later on.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...temperatures will climb considerably heading into Wednesday with afternoon highs in the 70s to lower 80s, the warmest across southwest Nebraska. Under more prevalent sunshine, expect deep mixing again with an influx of dry air crossing the Continental Divide and settling east across the Panhandle into west central Nebraska. Short term ensembles paint strong winds again, though not quite to the magnitude of Tuesday's gusts, but potential for approaching 30 mph in west-northwesterly low-level flow again surpasses 50% for many west of Highway 83. With lower dew points, warmer temperatures, and persistent moderate winds, opted to hoist a Fire Weather Watch for Zones 204, 206, and 210. The decision was made to exclude 209 and 219 after coordination with eastern offices and citing less impressive potential from short term ensembles as well as forecast soundings. This will need close evaluation going forward and possible expansions cannot be ruled out with later forecasts. Continued downslope flow into the evening/overnight hours may promote a rather poor night for humidity recovery. Forecast low temperatures only reach the upper 30s to lower 40s and peak humidity values only in the 50-60% range for far southwest Nebraska.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-209-210-219. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for NEZ204-206-210.