textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected early this morning through early afternoon across portions of the Sandhills and central Nebraska. A few storms could be severe, with large hail and strong winds as the primary threats.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible again this evening, though any redevelopment is uncertain due to this morning's thunderstorms.

- A threat for thunderstorms will persist into late week and the weekend. The threat for severe weather is uncertain at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Currently, scattered thunderstorms persist across portions of the northern Nebraska Panhandle and far southwest South Dakota. These thunderstorms are at the nose of a strengthening low level jet, which is centered over eastern Colorado northwards into the southern Nebraska Panhandle. This activity is expected to persist through much of the night, as the low level jet maximum slowly moves east towards southwest Nebraska with time. Widespread thunderstorms are expected to overspread the Sandhills prior to sunrise, and persist into early afternoon as they move east into central Nebraska. This will also promote increasing MUCAPE through the early morning hours, to as much as ~1500-2000J/kg across much of southwest Nebraska and the Sandhills. The environment remains strongly sheared aloft as well, with forecast soundings indicating long and straight hodographs with height. The combination of ample elevated instability and deep layer shear will lead to a threat for a few strong to severe storms overnight, with large hail being the primary threat. Depending on the strength of the low level inversion, a few instances of strong winds cannot be ruled out as well. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat overnight and into tomorrow morning, as training thunderstorms are possible amid PWAT values approaching the 90th percentile climo. Any instances of flash flooding will likely be confined to areas of central Nebraska, where flash flood guidance is lowest locally.

The early day thunderstorms casts significant uncertainty on any severe weather later this afternoon and evening, though trends will continue to be monitored. Should airmass recovery occur today, though the strong deep layer shear in place suggest some threat for supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging winds yet again across the area. The more likely scenario is for any severe thunderstorms this evening to remain off to the south of the area across northeastern Colorado and western Kansas.

Another round of scattered thunderstorms is possible overnight into Wednesday morning, though the low level jet looks to remain focused off to the south of the area. Another round of convection then looks to come off the high terrain Wednesday evening, with some threat for large hail and damaging winds to extend into southwest Nebraska by late Wednesday evening. Any severe threat Wednesday looks to largely remain confined to areas of the southern Panhandle and far southwest Nebraska at this time, with instability quickly waning with northeast extent into the Sandhills and central Nebraska.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 212 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The active weather looks to persist into the long term period, as the broad and strong northwest flow continues into late week across much of the Plains. Though mesoscale details will need to be resolved with respect to threats late week, ample instability will overlap adequate deep layer shear for organized updrafts both Thursday and Friday. Some threat for convection originating in the higher terrain and moving east into western Nebraska late evening appears plausible both days.

A deeper upper trough then begins to traverse into the Pacific Northwest by this weekend, finally reaching the northern Plains by early Monday morning. Ahead of this trough, increasing moisture advection will pull much deeper surface moisture northwards into the area, as high as the upper 60s to lower 70s in some guidance solutions. This should lead to very strong instability across the area, and with it at least some threat for thunderstorms. Guidance differs with respect to the placement of surface boundaries, which is to be expected at this range. Regardless, trends will need to be monitored for a continued threat for severe weather into this weekend, as the deep upper trough slowly moves east into the northern Plains. Confidence wanes as we head into early next week, as the aforementioned upper trough moves off to the north into Canada. Some guidance has begun to hint at strengthening upper riding across the central CONUS by middle to late next week, though confidence in this remains low for now.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are tracking across western and north central Nebraska this morning, bringing low end VFR to IFR conditions. Thunderstorm activity is expected to track east along a cold front and clear out of most of the region by around noon, though showers may linger. Behind the front, stratus is expected to remain across the region, leaving low end VFR to MVFR ceilings throughout the day. By the evening, skies eventually clear across northern Nebraska, with stratus remaining across the southwest. Winds are also expected to shift around with the frontal passage, eventually becoming northwesterly to westerly by the late afternoon and evening, though winds are generally expected to remain lighter than 10 knots.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.