textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler than seasonal highs are expected through the end of the week. This may also usher in wind chills in the low to mid 30s across most of the region each morning.

- Confidence remains relatively high for rain chances Wednesday and Wednesday night across the region.

- Potential for the first frost of the season increases late week, especially Friday night into Saturday morning, when widespread lows in the lower 30s are expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The main cold front has pushed through southern Nebraska this afternoon, bringing mostly northerly winds in its wake. Stratus was slow to erode this morning across northern Nebraska into the Sandhills, which in combination with the cold front, has helped limit high temperatures this afternoon. Further south, across portions of southwest Nebraska where cloud cover was negligible, temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s. This evening, as high pressure develops across the northern Plains, a second push of cold air is expected to track into the region.

As this second push of cooler air occurs, expecting a layer of stratus to develop across the region, bringing mostly overcast skies. As cooler air pools across the region, expect lows mostly to drop into the mid to lower 40s tonight, though some locations across northern Nebraska, especially along Pine Ridge, may drop into the mid to upper 30s. In addition to the cooler air and cloudy skies, expect sustained winds out of the northeast overnight around 5 to 10 mph. If these winds remain sustained overnight, we can expect to see wind chills in the 30s across most of the region, especially in the predawn hours and lasting into mid morning. This will certainly feel cooler than the overnight lows we have been experiencing recently, which have remained mostly above seasonal average. In fact, our average lows should be in the mid 30s this time of year, but we have remained mostly in the 50s to upper 40s. Those with plants and vegetation sensitive to the cold may want to take precautions tonight. Additionally, with the cooler temperatures and wind chills in the early morning hours, those traveling to work or school may want to bring out the warmer clothing.

Skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy on Tuesday, limiting daytime heating across most of the region. Highs are mostly expected to remain in the 50s, though some locations across southwest Nebraska may be able to climb into the lower 60s. Skies are expected to clear by the evening, which will allow for another night of radiational cooling across the region. With dewpoints mostly remaining in the 30s to lower 40s Tuesday night, expect lows will mostly follow suit. Of note, will be keeping a close eye on areas across northwest Nebraska again, which may get close to freezing Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This may bring a localized risk for frost early Wednesday morning, mostly for areas along and north of Highway 20 from Hay Springs to Merriman. As with tonight, sustained winds may bring cooler wind chills across the region, with wind chills in the lower 30s expected early Wednesday morning, potentially dropping into the upper 20s across portions of the Sandhills.

By Wednesday, the upper level trough is expected to be over the Four Corners region, with an upper level jet maximum located over western Kansas and eastern Colorado. This should place most of western Nebraska in a favorable location for divergence aloft, favoring a deepening surface low across eastern Wyoming. A plume of Pacific moisture is expected to arrive with this trough, which should favor rain chances Wednesday into Wednesday night across most of western and north central Nebraska. Deterministic guidance has remained very consistent with this pattern, which does bolster confidence in the possibility for rainfall. Ensemble guidance also remains fairly optimistic on precipitation chances, bringing a 70 to 90+ percent chance of exceeding one tenth of an inch across most of the region. However, the European ensemble remains slightly more optimistic, indicating a 60 percent chance of portions of the area exceeding half an inch. Given the expected synoptic set up, do believe that the heightened rainfall chances are warranted Wednesday and especially Wednesday night. However, still have some uncertainty in the amount of precipitation across the region. For now, thinking the most likely scenario is somewhere between one quarter to one half inch for most areas, though there may be some potential for locally higher amounts.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 346 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

As the upper level low slowly tracks east on Thursday, may see some lingering showers through the morning into the early afternoon. Can not completely rule out a rumble of thunder or two, but for now, any severe weather risk appears very low. However, with the system tracking east, expecting wind conditions across most of the region on Thursday, with northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph, potentially gusting 40 to 45 mph. As the low tracks east, expecting mostly cloudy skies throughout the day, again limiting our ability to achieve stronger daytime heating. Expecting highs will mostly remain in the 50s across the region on Thursday. For reference, our typical highs for mid October are around 65 to 66 degrees. The bigger temperature concerns arrive Thursday night, as mush cooler air tracks across portions of western Nebraska. The latest forecast brings lows around freezing across most of Sheridan County, as well as portions of western Cherry, northern Garden, and northwest Grant counties. Though there is a chance for localized frost Wednesday night, this push of colder air may bring a more widespread chance for a frost across northwest Nebraska into the western Sandhills. With winds remaining through the night, also expecting a cold start on Friday morning, with wind chills in the 20s across most of the region. Interestingly enough, this cold push is actually quite typical for mid October, as our typical lows are around 33 to 35 degrees.

Similar conditions are expected through the day on Friday, with highs mostly remaining in the 50s across the region. However, by Friday night, a high pressure system tracks south across the northern Plains, bringing even cooler temperatures across most of the region, with widespread lows in the low to mid 30s. With lows dropping near freezing across most of the region, this increases our threat for a more widespread frost, potentially bringing the first frost of the season across most of western and north central Nebraska. As this high pressure system tracks south, expecting some increased winds along a tight pressure gradient, which will bring an even nastier bite to the cold temperatures. If these conditions come to fruition, we may see wind chill values in the low 20s across most of the region, especially areas north of Interstate 80, early Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, however, upper level ridging is expected to begin building across the region again. This should help return mostly seasonal temperatures on Saturday, with highs climbing into the 60s. In fact, by Sunday, we may be seeing highs returning to the low to mid 70s again, with lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Low stratus will expand across the area tonight, leading to widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs. This stratus will persist through late tomorrow morning, with gradual improvements back to VFR for all terminals tomorrow afternoon.

Winds increase from the northeast tonight, with gusts of 25 to 30kts expected for western and southwest Nebraska terminals prior to sunrise. Winds then remain northeasterly tomorrow afternoon, at 10 to 15kts for all terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.