textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- On and off rain showers are expected to continue throughout the day, with rain stopping later this evening. Some snow may mix in with the showers early this morning across northwest Nebraska, though no accumulations are expected.

- Dry and warmer weather returns towards the middle of the week with daytime highs in the 60s to near 70F.

- More unsettled weather arrives this weekend and continues into early next week as deep troughing develops across the western CONUS.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The upper level low that has been the main feature of our weather pattern this weekend remains over the Four Corners region this morning. Throughout the day, this low will gradually lift to the north-northeast with the system eventually tracking out of the region this evening. As this occurs, expecting the same plume of Pacific moisture will remain in place, bringing rain showers across the region through the evening. With general upper level flow coming from the southwest, expecting a continued push of rain showers from the southwest, as well. Although there may be a few breaks in the showers today, mostly expecting dreary fall conditions. Highs likely struggle to get out of the 40s across northwest Nebraska and portions of the Sandhills, with the rest of the region potentially breaking into the 50s. Skies are also expected to remain overcast, with some potential for patchy fog between rain showers, given the ample humidity and cool conditions.

One other thing to keep an eye on will be the potential for our first few snowflakes this season across portions of northwest Nebraska early this morning. As rain showers continue to lift to the north, there may be sufficient overlap with colder temperatures to allow for some snowflakes to mix into the precipitation, mainly in northern Sheridan and portions of northwest Cherry counties. Guidance continues to suggest a pocket of cooler than freezing temperatures aloft across northwest Nebraska, as well as a few hours right around the freezing mark at the surface, which does further increase this chance. However, given that soil temperatures remain generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s, do not think that any snow that forms will be capable of accumulating. More or less, just something to be on the lookout for early this morning, especially after sunrise and potentially into the morning commute.

By the evening, as the upper level low ejects from the region, expect that rain showers will stop, leaving a dry night. Cloud cover is expected to stick around however, which will limit the ability for temperatures to completely cool off overnight. With this in mind, gave overnight lows a slight nudge warmer, but still generally expect to see overnight lows Monday night around the freezing mark across most of the region. Will be keeping an eye out for potential fog development, given the very moist environment combined with light surface winds. However, still will be assessing this over the next forecast cycle, as confidence is not quite high enough one way or the other.

By Tuesday, the northern jet stream is expected to track an upper level shortwave across North Dakota, with a surface low tracking across central South Dakota. As far as precipitation is concerned, not expecting any across western and north central Nebraska at this time. Rather, the low pressure system should make for some stronger southerly winds on Tuesday, potentially gusty at times. Latest thinking is the stronger winds will mostly remain along and north of Highway 2, with peak gusts around 30 mph. Should also see some more seasonal highs on Tuesday, generally in the lower 60s. For reference, out typical highs for this week are right around 58 to 61 degrees, so about on track for late October. However, by Tuesday night, mostly cloudy skies and elevated dew points are expected to keep us slightly warmer than usual, with lows dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. This is expected to usher in another round of our unusually warm nights this fall. On a typical year, our lows in late October would drop to the upper 20s, however, the overnight dew points have generally kept us well above this mark.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 252 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Strong northern stream jet will settle across the northern Rockies with low amplitude ridging over the Southeast leading to southwesterly flow aloft. More benign weather arrives towards the mid week as subtle heights build in and the early week disturbance lifts up into eastern Canada. Temperatures should recover to above normal values, 60s to near 70F or 10 to 15F above normal for late October, for most locations across central and western Nebraska. Deep troughing will again dig south along the West Coast by late week with a cutoff upper low taking shape. This should lead to more amplified southwesterly flow locally with multiple shortwaves crossing the central and southern Rockies in the days 5-10 timeframe. As such, PoPs initialized from the model blend show a marked increase into the weekend with even higher values early next week. The latter of these align with the eventual progression of the longwave trough through the Intermountain West towards the Plains. While the GEFS output is fairly noisy with greater uncertainty in timing, the EPS is much more confident in seeing local impacts maximized late Monday into early Tuesday (Day 8/9). Overall though, any impacts appear likely to favor primarily rain with any wintry concerns limited to colder overnights. This is due to a lack of Artic air and, most significantly, no noteworthy Canadian high pressure that is typical with our bigger winter events. Details are far from certain so continue to check with subsequent forecasts for the latest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 653 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Degraded aviation conditions will persist for most if not the whole of the upcoming forecast period.

A passing disturbance will allow low CIGs and precipitation to continue across the area including both KLBF and KVTN. Probabilities for IFR remain high through early afternoon before a brief improvement is possible for all area terminals. This will coincide with expanding -RA and potentially -SNRA for western Nebraska closer to KGRN/KCDR. Though rain should taper this afternoon/evening, low CIGs will remain and appear likely to return to IFR and even LIFR for the remainder of the forecast period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.