textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry conditions continue across all of western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s are expected on Friday and into the weekend.

- Some elevated fire weather concerns develop, especially Thursday afternoon when humidity will drop into the 20-25% range, mainly for northwest Nebraska.

- While some uncertainty remains in the forecast for early next week, there is a signal for potentially cooling temperatures and lower end precipitation chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain in firm control right though the end of the week. Thickness actually decreases slightly but will have no impact on temperatures. In fact, they will continue to warm, and by Friday we may be nearing heat advisory criteria.

Southeast low-level flow will persist through Thursday as leeward troughing remains established along the Front Range. Doesn't appear that the flow will be overly strong, but localized gusts in the 20- 25 mph range can be expected both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. This could lead to some elevated fire weather concerns, especially in areas that haven't received the rains other have and fuels continue to dry with the heat. The lower humidity will Thursday afternoon, where much of northwest Nebraska we lower into the 20-25% range during the afternoon hours.

No precipitation is expected the next couple of days as very warm temperatures aloft continue to persist and very little flow aloft.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The late week forecast remains on track, as heat is expected to build in earnest Friday into this weekend. Upper level ridging is expected to remain across the area, with a push of warmer temperatures aloft, supporting daily highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight, lows will provide little relief, as temperatures only cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s. While the European ensemble remains the cooler member, even it is now suggesting a 50% chance of highs breaking 100 across northern Nebraska by Sunday. The GEFS, which so far seems to be more bullish on heat, brings a nearly 70% chance of areas east of Highway 83 breaking 100 by Sunday, with most of the area at least at a 50% chance. In fact, the GEFS even brings heat chances a bit further south on Saturday as well, but mostly remains contained over north central Nebraska. All this to say, confidence remains quite high on temperatures breaking into the upper 90s to lower 100s Friday through Sunday. Again, this keeps temperatures right around to just above the 90th percentile of high temperatures compared to climatology. For now, it still looks like we will remain below record high temperatures, but it will still get quite hot this weekend. Still keeping an eye on this period for potential heat headlines, especially given how ensembles suggest an expanded area may break 100.

While uncertainty remains in timing of a potential break in this pattern, the global deterministic models have come into better agreement on this latest forecast cycle, and even cluster analysis brings a more harmonious picture. On this latest run, there is more consensus on ridging remaining mostly in place Sunday into Monday, with all solutions going towards a lower amplitude ridge. A trough is expected to track across the Pacific Northwest and across south central Canada, which is expected to push the top of the ridge into North Dakota. There still remains a possibility of a backdoor cold front tracking across the Plains, bringing a push of cooler air and potential precipitation in as early as Monday. However, the timing still remains uncertain in this pattern, especially in the Monday to Monday night timeframe.

Tuesday into Wednesday, there is more agreement on ridging building to the west, with northwest flow aloft. As a few shortwaves push through the upper level flow, there is a better signal for some precipitation across the region. At this time, it does not look like much precipitation. Ensembles suggest a 30 percent chance of one tenth of an inch or better, but virtually no chance of one half inch or better. However, what does appear more likely is a return to more seasonal temperatures by Tuesday. Again, still some slight uncertainty given the timing, but in general, temperatures are expected to become cooler, so perhaps at least some relief from the heat is in store.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. Winds are expected to remain out of the south and southeast, becoming gusty by late morning into the afternoon, with peak gusts around 25 knots in western Nebraska. Throughout the day, fair weather cumulus is likely to develop, with no impacts expected to area terminals. This evening, as an inversion develops, wind gusts are expected to diminish, with winds remaining steady out of the south and southeast through the night.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.