textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in a return to critical fire conditions on Thursday as dry, warm, and breezy conditions return.

- Moderate confidence in precipitation Friday and Friday night with some light accumulating snow.

- Moderate confidence in below freezing temperatures Friday night which may result in widespread freeze conditions.

- Moderate confidence in warmer temperatures returning to by early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

With the majority of the precipitation pushed east of the region, weak ridging will continue to build back into the central Plains. This will bring drier and warmer conditions once again across much of the region for Thursday. A return to dry conditions arrives on Thursday as weak ridging builds back into the central Plains. Warm air advection with 850 mb temperatures in the 12 to 16 C range will allow for surface highs to easily climb back into the low to mid 80s. These highs will be nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year. Latest probability guidance suggests a maximum temperature over 85 degrees to be nearly 70 to 80 percent or higher for areas east of US-83. In addition, looking at the latest EFI/SoT guidance, the EFI remain high (0.7 to 0.8) with SoT above 0 across portions of north central Nebraska. Therefore confidence is high that there may be some very warm, unseasonable temperatures, but not necessarily record-breaking high temperatures on Thursday. Current records sit at 89 for North Platte and 91 at Broken Bow, Valentine, and Imperial. The latest probability suggests maximum temperatures over 90 degrees to be highest (near 45 percent) across extreme north central Nebraska. Therefore, outside of this region (O'Neill area), not expecting highs to rise to near or over 90... therefore records not expected to be broken. However, would not be surprised to see a slight increase in highs over the going forecasted highs as the warming trend continues.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

An upper level trough will dig south along the Rockies Thursday night, pushing into the High Plains by Friday and into the central Plains by Saturday. This trough and associated front will bring some precipitation to the region beginning as early as Thursday night across northwest Nebraska and into the Pine Ridge. Precipitation will gradually push south and east during the day Friday. A brief period of rain Thursday night is expected across northwest Nebraska before changing over to all snow as temperatures drop below freezing and remain cooler in this region. Still, maximum temperatures are expected to rise into the low 40s by Friday afternoon in the Pine Ridge which may inhibit any snow or at least make accumulations more difficult during the daytime. Further to the south and east, precipitation will not arrive until Friday afternoon as the trough pushes east. Precip type will generally start off as rain, but as the colder air behind the trough filters into the region, a gradual change over to snow is expected. Once the sun sets in the evening and temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s, any lingering precipitation will transition over to snow. At this time, any snow accumulations should be around or under a half inch, mainly across areas west of Highway 61. The majority of the precipitation will come to an end Friday evening and skies clearing out shortly after Midnight CT.

This leads to the next major weather concern in the long term. As precipitation comes to an end and skies clear and combine with cold air filtering into the region, surface low temperatures will plummet to below freezing. Lows in the 20s will be likely across much of the region with portions of the Pine Ridge and eastern Panhandle even dropping into the upper teens. While temperatures across much of the region will have lows in the mid 20s, a freeze watch Friday night will only encompass areas generally south of Highway 2 Friday night where these areas have seen some growing already started and many pivots and sprinklers have been turned on. Temperatures will remain below normals on Saturday with highs only rising into the 50s. Low temperatures on Saturday night will be chilly once again, but a few degrees warmer than Friday night. At this time not anticipating any freeze headlines, but they may be necessary as overnight lows still drop into the mid 20s across the forecast area.

Heading into the latter half of the weekend and into next week, upper level ridging remains in place across the western US with surface high pressure across the central Plains allowing for dry conditions to prevail. Persistent warm air advection into the region will allow for a decent warming trend through the beginning of next week. High temperatures will easily rise back into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday with lows returning into the 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout much of the region through Thursday morning. Winds will generally remain under 12 knots with skies remaining mostly clear. Some increasing winds are expected by late Thursday morning across the Pine Ridge and into northern Nebraska with southwesterly gusts up to 25 knots. Even stronger gusts up to 30 knots are expected Thursday afternoon across the majority of the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Critical fire weather concerns are expected to return on Thursday as RH values drop and winds increase. Humidity will drop to below 15 percent for much of the region with some locations across south central Nebraska dropping to near 10 percent. South southwesterly wind gusts up to 35 mph are anticipated across the Panhandle with wind gusts across the rest of the area up to 25 to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect from late Thursday morning through late evening due to these strong winds, lower RH values, and cured fuels ready to burn. Overnight RH values will recover to over 70 percent for much of the region as the next weather system pushes into the region bringing some light precipitation on Thursday night and into Friday. QPF values will remain under a tenth inch (0.10) for areas mainly west of US-83, with lesser amounts to the east.

After a brief respite on Friday, humidity values drop back to 15 percent or lower on Saturday continuing into next week, therefore elevated to near critical fire conditions will return on Saturday. With the dry conditions and increasing warming temperatures combined with low RH into next week, critical fire conditions will return through at least Tuesday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for NEZ204-206-208>210- 219. Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for NEZ022>025-035>038-056>059-069>071.