textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures will persist today across the area with highs in the 70s to upper 80s.

- There will be a threat for showers and thunderstorms through the morning hours with a secondary threat for precipitation tonight.

Hot and dry conditions are expected this weekend into Monday with highs approaching or reaching 100+ degrees.

Readings cool off Tuesday and Wednesday with more seasonal highs in the 90s and a small threat for showers and thunderstorms.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

H5 analysis tonight had a closed area of low pressure over central Quebec. A trough extended south southwest of this feature into the Mid Atlantic and North Carolina. High pressure was anchored along the Red River with ridging extending northwest into Idaho and the northern Rockies. Broad northwesterly flow extended from southwestern Canada into the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. Within this flow, weak disturbances were present from Idaho into Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. This led to shower and thunderstorm development earlier this evening over eastern and northeastern Colorado. As of 1130 PM CDT, thunderstorms have developed along an arc extending from near Lewellen to west of Hayes Center. This activity seems to be forming on the nose of a 25 to 35 KT low level jet as depicted in the latest NAM12 soln. The latest CAMS, including the 03z HRRR do not have a good handle on this precipitation and develop it around 50 to 75 miles farther east than what is occurring. That being said, made some minor modification to the precipitation forecast across southwestern Nebraska for the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today through Friday...Precipitation chances over the next 12 to 24 hours is the main forecast challenge in the short term forecast. By daybreak, ongoing precipitation, is expected to slide east, exiting southwestern Nebraska and portions of central Nebraska by daybreak. Two areas where the best chances for precipitation over the next 24 hours are over A) northern Nebraska and B) over southwestern Nebraska. The shortwave disturbance, mentioned over Idaho above, will traverse Wyoming today, approaching eastern Wyoming later this afternoon. Downstream of this feature, a elongated weak surface trough of low pressure, extending from southeastern Montana into eastern Colorado will help to focus thunderstorm development this afternoon. As mentioned above, two areas of thunderstorm development are anticipated. The first over northwestern Nebraska INVOF a frontal boundary and the second over northeastern into eastern Colorado along the surface trough and co- located with an area of strong low level warm air advection. Activity to the north will transition east southeast later this afternoon into the evening hours with the best chances for precipitation over north central Nebraska. Further south, forecast confidence is not as strong with the Colorado initiated showers and thunderstorms. Mid level winds transition more to the northwest later today which would steer this activity more into Kansas and far southern Nebraska. This shows up in the latest QPF forecast which is less than a tenth of an inch for North Plate after 12z this morning. That being said, will focus highest pops along and south of I-80 with this second area of precipitation. Precipitation will transition east overnight, exiting the forecast area by daybreak Friday morning. On the heels of this exiting precipitation, ridging will begin to build into the southern and central Rockies Friday afternoon, forcing a warm front across the forecast area. Highs Friday will vary widely across the area with lower 80s in the eastern Sandhills and middle 90s along and west of highway 61. These readings will seem cool compared to highs expected Saturday through Monday. More about that in the Long Term section below.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Saturday through Monday...An expansive upper level ridge will remain centered over Colorado. H85 temperatures will range as high as 34 to 38C each day. Hot temperatures are expected. NBM probability of exceeding 100 degrees is highest on Sunday from 70 to 95 percent across much of north central, the western Sandhills and southwest. Even Saturday has probabilities as high as 40 to 70 percent. Although confidence in exceeding 100 degree is less on Monday, a weak cold may drop into the forecast area. This may actually bring the hottest day if the front slows and compressional heating boosts highs. MEX guidance is hot all 3 days, at 108, 110, 108 each day at Valentine and 106, 109, 110 each day at North Platte. While we may not see highs quite this hot, the potential is there for highs to reach or exceed 105 in some locations. Dewpoints during peak heating look to range from the upper 50s to lower 60s, with heat indicies at least in the upper 90s to low 100s. Sunday may see heat indices 100 to 105. So, there is medium confidence than heat advisories may be needed.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Highs may lower a bit Tuesday into the low to mid 90s, as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes with a weak cold front down into northern Kansas. Low to mid 90s also expected for highs on Wednesday.

Dry conditions expected through Sunday, with low chances for showers and storms Monday afternoon through Wednesday. H7 temperatures around 18 to around 20C Saturday warm to around 20C Sunday into Monday. Slightly cooler temperatures aloft Tuesday and Wednesday and a slightly northwest flow aloft may support "ridge runner convection" into the evening and overnight hours.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 707 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions at the KLBF and KVTN terminals through this evening. There will be widely scattered showers and storms this evening. Confidence too low to include attm. Stratus, possibly IFR will develop in central NE and may move into the KLBF terminal after 09Z.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.