textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm potential enters the picture Monday afternoon and especially during the evening. Briefly severe storms will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Precipitation chances will decrease by the middle of the week and remain low until possibly early next weekend.

- Slightly cooler but abnormally warm temperatures will remain for the rest of the week with Wednesday being the coolest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A couple of thunderstorms could clip northwest Nebraska this evening as they move northeastward off the higher terrain from the west. Overall most of the area is within an area of subsidence behind this morning's MCS which has moved into Iowa.

Otherwise, upper level ridging will remain anchored across the southern plains through Monday night. Meanwhile a potent upper level low will be crossing southern Canada with upper troughing extending southward into the Rockies and northern Plains. A slow moving cold front associated with the northern plains troughing...will be located from near Bassett to Ainsworth by late Monday afternoon. Moisture pools ahead of the front with PWATS nearing 1.75 to 2.0" before any convective initiation along the front. That is a very moist atmosphere which leads to a locally heavy rain threat Monday night. As far as the expected scenario: widely scattered thunderstorms should develop from north to south along the front during the late afternoon hours. Development should first be across north central Nebraska where overall forcing will be somewhat stronger. As winds back to the southeast slightly ahead of the front during the early evening, convergence along the boundary increases with storms expected to become more numerous. Upper-level flow is parallel to the front so will have to watch for training of storms, which would increase the heavy rain threat. As far as the severe potential, overall shear and instability would support storm organization and at least some potential for some briefly severe storms. This may be more early on while storms are more isolated.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 337 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A deep upper trough parked over southern Canada near the Pacific Northwest will move eastward through Tuesday into Wednesday and flatten out the upper ridge that is over much of the Plains. During this timeframe near the surface, a cold front will push across the northern Plains throughout late Monday through Tuesday. This front will come into contact with a moist airmass provided by strong southwest flow ahead of it. Combine this with modest but sufficient wind shear, increased chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday morning. Once the front passes through, slightly cooler temperatures will be in its wake for the remainder of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to to potentially low 90s further south along I80. Wednesday in particular will be the coolest with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region.

The flattened ridge will become a more zonal flow regime through the mid week with high pressure settling across Nebraska. This is likely to preclude precipitation chances until the following weekend where a deepening upper trough is forecasted to take shape across the Pacific Northwest sometime Saturday morning. Once this trough crosses the Rockies, it will support increasing precipitation chances as well as the potential fore returning to near normal highs for the time of year in the low to mid 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions are be expected through the forecast period with the exception of early Monday morning. There is a possibility for some temporary MVFR ceilings across north central Nebraska as well as sporadic areas of LLWS across southwest Nebraska that will impact KLBF, during the early morning of Monday and into sunrise. A front is expected to move through the area near the end of the forecast period around Monday early to mid afternoon. This will shift winds to out of the southwesterly at 10 to 15 mph gusting up to near 30 mph. Additionally, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday evening across southwest Nebraska but have omitted them from the TAFs at this time due to uncertainty of KLBF terminal being affected during this forecast cycle, but, should be something to keep an eye on for the next forecast cycle.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.