textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms today, initial threat will be large hail, then storms will become a cluster of storms and become a damaging wind threat

- Another round of thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across southwest Nebraska

- Cooler temperatures Tuesday through Thursday

- Precipitation chances will continue through the week and into the weekend but uncertainty remains if any of it will be severe

- Slightly abnormal highs expected Friday through the weekend, with highs in the low to mid 90s

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening ahead of a boundary. Low level heating with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s should be sufficient enough to erode the cap. Storms will likely start off discrete in nature but as they advance east southeast they will congeal into more of a cluster. The main mode of the discrete thunderstorms will be supercells given the environment, which is conducive to support supercells. Early storm environment will have 0 to 6 km shear around 35 to 40 kts with MU CAPE values ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/kg. The highest CAPE values will generally be across western Nebraska, west of HWY 83 in the late afternoon and early evening, with CAPE increasing by mid evening west of HWY 83. There is also decent moisture advection into the area with dewpoints in the 60s across much of western and north central Nebraska. The initial discrete supercells will likely favor large hail first with steep mid level lapse rates across western Nebraska. DCAPE is also favorable across western Nebraska into the Sandhills, increasing confidence that the greatest threat as storms congeal into a cluster will be damaging wind gusts. Expect the majority of the convection to diminish around midnight. However, could see some lingering convection after midnight, especially across the southern/central portions of the forecast area.

Attention then turns to Tuesday with another potential for thunderstorms. Expect most of the convection to hold off until late Tuesday afternoon and evening, however can't rule out an isolated thunderstorms late morning/early afternoon. The placement of where convection will initiate is dependent on where the front stalls out today and will be the focus for storm development Tuesday. At this time it favors southwest Nebraska where better shear exist and MU CAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg coincide. There is also the potential for storms to become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the main concern, and a secondary threat of large hail. As for temperatures on Tuesday, highs will be cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s, generally north of interstate 80. Areas to the south of I-80 are expected to reach the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Upper level ridging continues to remain across western CONUS. EAsterly flow in the lower levels will promote highs in the low to mid 80s across the region Wednesday. A frontal boundary looks to drop south throughout Wednesday and stall out over west-central Nebraska by the afternoon/evening. This could lead to isolated thunderstorm chances across the panhandle near the stalled out front. Thursday heading into Friday, the strengthening ridge will move eastward towards the plains. A upper trough situated over the pacific ocean will move into southwestern Canada and suppress the upper ridge. This will promote warmer air into the high plains. South-southwesterly low level flow and a lifting warm front will increase thunderstorm chances late Thursday night into Friday. The warmer air will also create warmer overall high temperatures across the region with temperatures rising to the mid 90s across west central Nebraska Friday afternoon. As the upper trough digs down into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend, this will flatten out the upper ridge over the Northern Plains. The flattening of the ridge will push warmer air further east leading to slightly abnormal highs in the low to mid 90s across areas along and west of HWY 83 Saturday and across the CWA as a whole Sunday. There has been some signal over a shortwave potentially developing across the Central Plains but disagreement among models on whether that timeframe will occur during the early weekend vs the late weekend. Regardless, it is something to keep an eye on as models become better refined.

The multiple potential shots of thunderstorm chances through the week and into the weekend should provide a decent amount of measurable precipitation across the region. Guidance currently suggests a 60 to 80 percent chance of southwest to central Nebraska receiving at least 0.25" of rainfall through the weekend with that probability dropping to 30 - 50 percent of at least 0.50". If the thunderstorm chances hold, this should help dampen drought concerns some, especially areas south of I80.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently tracking east across the Sandhills, however conditions are mostly remaining lower end VFR at worst. These storms will produce a risk for gusty and erratic winds, though, and have a history of producing heavy rain causing localized and brief reductions in visibility. Once storm activity begins winding down, expecting light and variable winds and VFR conditions to prevail throughout most of the period. There may be additional showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, though confidence in impacts to area terminals remains low at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.