textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances will shift south today as a cold front progresses across the area.

- Lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms tonight in southeastern areas with dry conditions expected there after through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Precipitation chances today and early this evening is the main forecast challenge in the near term. Upper level low pressure will track across central Manitoba today. A trailing shortwave trough will track from western into northeastern Montana. These systems will force a cool front through the forecast area today. Late this afternoon, this feature will extend from far NW Kansas into east central Nebraska. The latest NAM12 and 00z HRRR soln are in agreement with this scenario tonight, while the 00z WARW is more aggressive with the front having it oriented from west central Kansas into far SE Nebraska late this afternoon. That being said, feel the best chances for convection tied to the surface front will be across far southeastern portions of the FA today. This main chance will be during the afternoon hours as the front exits the forecast area between 18z and 21z this afternoon. The front will push further south into Kansas this evening shifting the surface focused precipitation south. Behind the front, decent mid level frontogenesis will develop this evening into the early overnight hours from far southwestern into south central and east central Nebraska. This will lead to a lingering threat for showers and thunderstorms across southern portions of the forecast area. The latest NBM forecast was dry across the south with the second round of elevated forced precipitation. Based on the deterministic 00z NAM12, 00z WARW and 00z HRRR solns, decided to insert a mention of showers and thunderstorms in far southeastern areas mainly this evening. Surface high pressure will then build into the northern forecast area overnight, then southern portions of the forecast area Wednesday morning. With cool high pressure being the dominant feature across Nebraska Wednesday. Even with mainly clear skies, highs will reach the upper 70s north of Interstate 80 with lower 80s across southwestern Nebraska.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

High pressure aloft across the Desert Southwest will gradually weaken as deep troughing dives southeast from western Canada. Southerly flow will support warmer temperatures with a return to upper 80s to lower 90s for Thursday and Friday. Broad upper-level height falls from the approaching longwave trough will overspread the area. Low pressure across the Northern Plains will drag a cold front south into the area during the afternoon/evening hours. NBM QPF probabilities continue to favor areas to our south and east and as a result, the going forecast keep most of the forecast area dry. That said, deterministic solutions vary slightly on placement of this boundary by roughly 100-200 miles. Any slower progression with this feature will bode more favorable for local rain chances thus confidence in precipitation potential remains low for now. More unsettled weather will be on tap for the weekend as enhanced mid- level flow resides immediately north of the area. Though upper-level dynamics will largely miss the immediate area, reasonable moisture fetch from the Gulf combined with mid-level moisture originating from the Eastern Pacific will combine to produce PWAT values nearly 1-2 sigma above normal values for mid-September. NBM remains fairly noisy with broad low-probabilities for wetting rain and this closely aligns with the latest EPS solution. That said, deterministic ECMWF/GFS solutions are fairly aggressive with rainfall over the weekend but particularly Sunday night as a surface low takes shape in the lee of the Central Rockies. This will be something to watch in the coming days including a potential severe threat with stronger mid-level flow supporting a sheared environment. Of course the question remains where the frontal boundary sets up. NBM inner- quartile spreads remain large, 20F for North Platte on Sunday, highlighting this uncertainty.

Towards the middle of next week, upper-level ridging will redevelop over the southern CONUS with increasing influence across Nebraska. Though NBM MaxT spread remains large, gradual day over day increases are noted from Monday through Thursday. While heights aloft will increase, non-zero precipitation potential will exist. Though no one day appears to be a washout, recurring rain chances should be enough to keep us on the wetter side of normal for the time frame. This aligns with the latest Climate Prediction Center 8-14 outlook which hedges towards > 40% probabilities of above normal precipitation for Tuesday through the end of next week. Details are far from certain so continue to check back with later forecasts for details.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 647 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Scattered showers continue to drift east across central Nebraska and should remain east of all area terminals for the remainder of the day with the exception of KBBW where only minor impacts are possible. Expect cloud bases to remain at or above 10kft AGL for the remainder of the period. A frontal boundary currently diving south through the area will lead to largely northwesterly winds early in the period with a brief period of gusts around 20 knots for both terminals. This afternoon and evening, winds will largely become variable as high pressure works in. As this occurs, speeds should largely favor 5 knots or less with more westerly winds becoming established late in the period across the Sandhills.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.