textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue to steadily warm this weekend into the week. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s, with potential for some locations to break into the lower 100s.

- Gusty winds will be possible Monday through Thursday, especially across the western Sandhills and eastern Panhandle. These winds, combined with the heat and no precipitation may bring a return of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

An upper level ridge currently centered over western AZ will lift into eastern UT by early this evening. Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and Midwest and low pressure over the Rockies will bring a increase in southerly winds across the area today from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph across the western Sandhills. Highs Saturday will be about 3 degrees warmer than Friday, in the lower 90s northern NE, near 90s southwest, and upper 80s central NE. Skies will be sunny, although some atmospheric smoke is expected across the area Saturday from ongoing forest fires in southwest CO and UT. Saturday night, a light south wind 5 to 15 mph with lows in the mid 60s. By Sunday afternoon, the upper ridge center will strengthen to 5990 meters at 500mb across northwest SD. This will bring hot temperatures exceeding 100 degrees across eastern WY, western SD and even the northwest NE panhandle. Highs across western NE will warm a few more degrees, in the 90s, with highs near 96 at Valentine and 98 at Gordon. Southerly winds will be breezy at 15 to 25 mph across the entire forecast area. Skies will again be sunny, except for the potential for some atmospheric smoke. Lows Sunday night around 65, except upper 60s northern NE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Upper level ridging is expected to persist throughout the week, bringing a warm, dry pattern. The strongest flow in the ridge is expected to settle across southern Canada, bringing a dome of high pressure across the Plains. Following this flow aloft, warmer temperatures are expected to stream west and north of the region, bringing hot temperatures across the Intermountain West and the Northern Plains. While the warmer temperatures aloft are expected to be mostly west and north of the region, this will still bring warmer temperatures aloft across the region, allowing for warmer surface temperatures. Given the latest forecast trends, generally expect highs this week to be in the mid to upper 90s across most of the region, with potential for highs to break into the lower 100s across northern Nebraska. These temperatures are not unusual for July across western Nebraska, with forecast highs around the 75th to 90th percentile of local climatology. However, with multiple days of expected high temperatures, this will usher in a heat wave through the week. There still is some uncertainty in how warm temperatures will get this week, as there is still a notable difference between the GEFS and European ensembles. The European ensemble continues to suggest that highs struggle to break 90 degrees across most of the region, despite the strength of the ridge and the fact that our average daily highs are around 90 to 91. The GEFS solution on the other hand covers most of the area with a greater than 90 percent chance to break 90 degrees, and suggests potential for 100 to be exceeded across northern Nebraska. Given the strength of the ridge and warmer air aloft, this builds greater confidence in the warmer GEFS solutions, so continue to believe that mid to upper 90s remains the most likely solution. With this in mind, there is still some potential that temperatures could trend warmer over the next few forecast cycles, especially if the GEFS solutions come to fruition.

In addition to the heat, the ridge will limit the potential for precipitation this week. With no precipitation in the forecast, we could quickly see some drying conditions across the region, especially given the heat. Strong mixing in the lower atmosphere is expected this week, leading to gusty winds each afternoon. This is especially true Monday through Thursday, where wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are expected, mainly across the western Sandhills into the eastern Panhandle. With the expected warmer, drier, and windy conditions, this may lead to a return of elevated to near critical fire weather concerns this week. Will continue to closely monitor forecast trends this week in regard to these concerns.

By late week, guidance suggests an upper level trough begins to make its way across the Pacific Northwest and potentially across the Northern Plains. This may help to breakdown the ridge, bringing potential for northwest flow aloft. This could usher in more seasonal temperatures and some lower end precipitation chances. However, confidence in this occurring remains low. Throughout the week, confidence should continue to grow one way or the other, as the upper level pattern becomes more resolved.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska for most of today and tonight. Patchy fog has developed across portions of southwest Nebraska, bringing brief MVFR conditions due to lower visibility. However, this fog is expected to remain patchy in nature and will quickly burn off this morning. Winds remain southerly today, becoming gusty by mid morning. The strongest gusts are expected across portions of the Sandhills, with gusts up to 30 knots possible. For KLBF and KVTN, generally expecting gusts to remain near 20 knots for peak gusts this afternoon, with potential for slightly stronger gusts at KVTN. Gusts are expected to decrease by the evening for area terminals, with some gusts remaining across the Sandhills this evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.