textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued hot and dry conditions expected through the end of the week, with even warmer temperatures likely Thursday through Saturday.

- Little to no signal for measurable rainfall exists prior to the weekend with a 10-15% probability of seeing a tenth of an inch or more for the Panhandle into far western Sandhills.

- Evolution of the extended patterns remains somewhat uncertain, however, temperatures appear likely to subside within increasing northwesterly flow towards early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

This afternoon, broad high pressure aloft remains in place across much of the Central/Northern Plains. Early afternoon readings show middle to upper 80s which closely match values at this time on Monday. This adds confidence to the near-persistence forecast with afternoon highs ranging from upper 90s in the north to lower 90s elsewhere. Southerly winds were approaching 20-25 mph for portions of the area though these should be considered the extreme with little indication of strengthening found.

Tonight...a moderately strong low-level jet should develop across the Plains as modest lee troughing sets up. This should allow for steady southerly winds through the overnight. The increased kinematics should limit the temperature drop and as a result, overnight lows were increased slightly. Leaned on warmer MAV/MAVBC guidance which holds lows in the 60s for all locations and even middle 60s for many. While not significantly anomalous, these values will remain above normal for the time of year and continues the concern that overnight lows provide little relief from the daytime heat.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...high pressure at h5 will gradually track east as troughing develops off the West Coast. Height falls will overspread the area but overall, broad upper ridging with positive height anomalies will remain across the region. This allows the ongoing heatwave to continue largely with no appreciable changes. Afternoon highs will be +/- 1-2F for most if not all locations from Tuesday's values with lower 90s south of the Niobrara Valley and middle/upper 90s along/north. Winds off the surface will remain elevated through the day and supports gusty winds. Though not particularly strong, speeds around 20-25 mph appear possible outside the Sandhills where magnitudes may be closer to 25-30 mph. Given the heat and dry airmass, will continue to highlight elevated to near- critical fire conditions favoring our western zones. Greatest concern locally is invof the Pine Ridge where humidity should approach 20 percent. Even warmer overnight temperatures are likely Wednesday into Thursday. Similarly, used a MAV/MAVBC/CONSRaw blend to produce middle 60s to near 70F, warmest along the Pine Ridge and invof the Missouri River.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Thursday through Saturday...Overall, little change is noted in the late week forecast. Upper-ridging remains entrenched across the spine of the Rockies with weak flow through the Central and Southern Plains. Greatest h5 height anomalies will shift north across the Dakotas where 1.5-1.8 sigma geopotential heights are progged by EPS guidance. Anomalous warmth will persist in the lower levels and result in daily highs in the middle 90s to low 100s. Drier air will be replaced by modified Gulf air as surface high pressure stalls near the Gulf Coast and southerly fetch arriving in western Nebraska originates from the Texas Coast. How far west this more humid airmass reaches remains in question with central and eastern Nebraska remaining the favored locations for the richer moisture quality. This potential leads to increased heat concerns for the timeframe as similar heat but greater mugginess would bolster daily heat indices (HI) closer to the century mark. For now, seeing some potential need for Heat Advisories (100F HI or higher) in our typical problem areas...the Niobrara Valley east towards the meeting point with the Missouri. Have noticed that the model blend tends to be warmest in the mid- range with gradual decreases in forecast highs closer to the 48 hour out window. Considering this and in collaboration with neighboring offices, did blend some bias- corrected guidance to slightly decrease daytime highs on Thursday and Friday. Regardless if HI hit 100F or not, the persistent day-to- day heat of middle to upper 90s with overnight lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s will prove to be concerning to folks without adequate protections. Folks are recommended to take the necessary steps to protect themselves from the expected heat.

Sunday and beyond...heading into early next week, evolution of the upper pattern is somewhat in flux. Broad ridging will remain in place immediately to the west of the local area with zonal to quasi- northwesterly flow likely to develop by Sunday/Monday. A northern stream disturbance will round the heights aloft and track east- southeast out of southern Canada towards the Great Lakes sometime in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. This suggests quick to follow high pressure and potential for a backdoor cool front to work its way in. NBM guidances shows consistent decreases in the inner-quartile MaxT output, with median values quickly falling to low 90s by Tuesday and even middle 80s by Wednesday. Though 25th-75th spread remains fairly small, 10th-90th spread remains fairly large at or around 15-20F. This highlights the uncertainty with precise details come next week. While very light precipitation is possible later Sunday (10-15% potential for > 0.10" in our west), better potential appears delayed until closer to Tuesday and seems to coincide with the potential frontal intrusion. NBM probabilities increase to 40-50% to exceed 0.10" in our west around Tuesday night/Wednesday. While this certainly won't bring the necessary moisture to offset the dry/hot spell, it appears likely to break our completely dry streak and bears watching in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska throughout the effective TAF period. Overnight, a low level jet develops across western Nebraska, bringing LLWS concerns across the Panhandle. However, this is expected to remain west of both KLBF and KVTN terminals tonight. Winds remain steadily out of the south and southeast into the morning, with gusts developing by the afternoon hours. While conditions are expected to remain VFR, some fair weather cumulus is expected to develop across the region late morning into the afternoon. By evening, wind gusts diminish, with winds remaining steady overnight from the southeast.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.