textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Much colder temperatures return to the area today, with highs remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s.

- Rain returns Wednesday night and persists into Thursday, with widespread accumulations expected across western and north central Nebraska.

- Moderate to high confidence in below normal temperatures by the end of the week with a frost/freeze potential.

- Moderate confidence in a return to drier and milder conditions by the end of the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Currently, stratus has again expanded across much of the area, in the wake of a cold front that has cleared the area to the south. Temperatures range from the upper 40s to lower 50s, with the warmest temperatures underneath the aforementioned stratus deck. Ample mechanical mixing in response to increasing cold advection is promoting gusty northeast winds.

For today, expect the gusty northeast winds to continue through early morning, before beginning to wane near sunrise as cold advection begins to weaken. Temperatures this afternoon will be highly dependent on how quickly low stratus erodes, with this lending uncertainty in highs across the area. Given the struggle of the stratus to erode yesterday, have trended highs down today with expectations that guidance may again be too quick with the erosion yet again. This now keeps highs in the upper 50s to the low 60s, some 20 to 25 degrees colder for much of southwest Nebraska versus yesterday. Lows tonight will also be greatly impacted by any lingering stratus from today, combined with additional low cloud development early Wednesday morning. This is in response to increasing low level upslope flow, along with increasing moisture advection aloft ahead of a deep upper low beginning to move east out of the Rockies. Any clearing tonight will allow for temperatures to quickly bottom out across northern Nebraska, where weak winds are also expected in the vicinity of surface high pressure centered across South Dakota. Should this occur, a quick drop into the middle 30s could lead to frost development, though confidence in this remains low for now. Slightly stronger winds further south should keep temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s and preclude any frost concerns.

By tomorrow, the aforementioned upper low will begin to eject east across the Rockies, reaching eastern Colorado by tomorrow night. Strong surface cyclogenesis will commence across southeastern Colorado by tomorrow afternoon, with broad easterly upslope flow continuing across the area to the north of this feature. This will promote increasing isentropic ascent tomorrow afternoon, leading to increasing shower coverage as the upper low begins to pivot towards the area. The greatest precipitation coverage looks to still be Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the upper low begins to pivot overhead and looks to put the area eventually within the dry slot on Thursday. Some threat for embedded thunderstorms can also be expected tomorrow night, as guidance is in good agreement with meager MUCAPE of ~100-250J/kg in place.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Active weather continues into Thursday as the system pushes through Nebraska. Confidence is increasing in QPF amounts with most locations seeing at least a half inch of rainfall. Some isolated locations under some of the heavier showers or thunderstorms could even see over an inch. The latest probabilities support this as the probability of seeing over an inch is 80 percent or higher across the entire forecast area, and the probability of seeing over 1 inch is over 50 percent for areas across the Sandhills and into central Nebraska. While these rainfall totals are significant, especially after several days with no rain, the longer duration of this system should keep any flooding concerns at bay. Still, will be monitoring the rainfall totals and flooding potential closely as the event unfolds. Precipitation will begin to push out of the area Thursday afternoon, completely exiting the area by Thursday evening.

Beyond Thursday night, strong upper level ridging will return to the western US allowing for surface high pressure to build south out of Canada bringing a return to dry conditions through the weekend. With this high, cold air advection will push in a much colder airmass into the northern and central Great Plains. With 850 mb temperatures in the -1 to 4 C range on Friday, surface highs will struggle to rise out of the 50s. Highs will gradually moderate through the weekend, rising back into the 70s by Sunday. This milder air will persist through the beginning of next week.

For low temperatures, this CAA will drop overnight temperatures into the upper 20s to low 30s across the Panhandle and northwest Nebraska with elsewhere seeing lows in the mid 30s on Friday morning. Widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s continue into Friday night/Saturday morning. Given this colder airmass, frost and freeze potential is likely by the end of the week. At this time, headlines are not in place, but if this colder temperature trend remains consistent and confidence increases, they will be necessary. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for the most up to date information regarding frost/freeze potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Overcast to mostly overcast skies will persist through Tuesday evening. Ceilings will remain below 2000 feet through mid-morning before beginning to rise across northern Nebraska. Further to the south, ceilings will be slower to rise, remaining below 5000 feet through the afternoon. Winds are currently switching to the northeast and will remain there through Tuesday night. Any gusty winds earlier have diminished and will stay below 10 knots through the TAF period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.