textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Memorial Day, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms possible late afternoon southwest and north central, with a 20 to 30 percent in the evening. Gusty winds appear to be the main threat, although small hail and very localized heavy rain possible.

- Near daily precipitation chances expected mid week into the weekend. Thunderstorms may bring potential for heavy rainfall, though exact location of storms remains uncertain.

- After warm temperatures to start the week, more seasonal temperatures are expected across the region mid week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Memorial Day, very warm with highs 90 to 95. An upper trough will extend from the Pacific Northwest into the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile an upper ridge axis will extend from the western Dakotas through eastern Kansas into eastern Texas. While the upper flow will southwesterly, it will be fairly weak. 500mb winds will only be near 20kts, as will 0-6km shear values. Surface low pressure will deepen across Wyoming and Colorado into the Nebraska panhandle as southerly winds increase to 10 to 20 mph across southwest into central Nebraska. Dewpoints will be higher in the 50s across the southwest and the eastern half of north central Nebraska, along with MUCAPEs from 1500-2500 J/kg by late afternoon. The convective temperature should be reached and widely scattered showers and storms should develop by late afternoon, becoming scattered in the evening as a low level jet increases after 00Z. With an inverted-V sounding, gusty winds look to be the main threat, though small is possible in the strongest storms. Though very localized, heavy rainfall is also possible, with a slow storm motion.

Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon across the northwest Sandhills, as warm temperatures in the low 90s combine with very dry air and push humidity into the middle to upper teens. Winds again look to be the limiting factor, southerly at 5 to 15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph.

Any showers or storms should end by midnight, with partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows 55 to 60.

Upper ridging will suppress any shower development on Tuesday, although an upper trough will lift into Colorado, eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. The surface pressure gradient will tighten up, with southerly winds 25 to 35 mph. Gusts to 40 mph possible across the western Sandhills. A very warm day again, with highs 85 to 90.

Near-critical fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon, as warm temperatures 85 to 90 combine with dry air and push humidity down into the middle 20s. Southerly winds 25 to 35 mph, with gust to 40 mph possible in the west could promote large fire growth, even though some green up exists.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

By mid week, an Omega blocking pattern is expected to be present across the United States, with the upper level low remaining over southern California and Nevada. With this set up, there is a strong signal for deep moisture advection off the Gulf through multiple layers of the environment. As the upper level low sits across the southwest, a few shortwaves are expected to track through the flow, with associated surface systems expected to bring chances of precipitation across the region. In fact, there are near daily chances for precipitation from mid week into the weekend. While ensemble guidance further builds confidence in this signal, showing near daily precipitation chances, what remains more uncertain is exactly where precipitation will develop. Given the weak flow aloft across most of the region, if thunderstorms develop, expect a slower storm movement, which may allow for longer duration rain showers. However, with the somewhat weaker forcing, showers and storms could be fairly scattered, bringing higher rain totals to areas with storms, and lower amounts outside of thunderstorm areas.

Along with near daily precipitation chances, gusty conditions are possible each day, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible each day. Of note, Wednesday appears to the the windiest day, with gusts up to 40 mph possible across the Panhandle and western Sandhills. Though conditions are expected to be breezy, with the better moisture return, expecting that humidity values remain in the 40 percent range, which should limit fire weather concerns. Additionally, temperatures are expected to be more in line with seasonal temperatures, which for late May are generally in the upper 70s across the region. The pattern remains much the same for the weekend, even though the upper level low is expected to lift north, keeping precipitation chances and seasonal temperatures through the end of the month.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. Mid to high cloud cover is expected today and tonight, with no impacts to ceilings. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening, however, confidence remains low in showers and thunderstorms impacting area terminals. Late tonight, confidence is high in another round of strong winds is expected aloft, causing additional LLWS concerns overnight. Will continue to refine the timing in follow on forecasts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.