textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures gradually warm the next few days, with highs returning to the 70s by the weekend. As warmer temperatures return, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the Panhandle and western Sandhills

- Moderate confidence dry and warm conditions through early next week and then for the end of the week as well.

- Low to moderate confidence in showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, although the severe potential remains uncertain at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

An upper level low remains over the Great Lakes region, with an upper level high over southern Alberta. This leaves western Nebraska under northerly to northwesterly flow aloft, with a ridge to the west and trough to the east. A shortwave is observed in the trough across eastern North Dakota, which is expected to continue tracking south through the overnight hours into the morning. At the surface, high pressure remains the dominant feature across the northern Plains, with a weak surface trough observed ahead of the upper level shortwave. With this current set up, expecting near seasonal to below seasonal temperatures today, with highs ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s. For reference, highs in early May across western Nebraska are typically around 66 to 67 degrees. At this time, expecting cooler temperatures across northern Nebraska, with more seasonal temperatures across the southwest.

As the surface trough tracks into the region late this morning into the afternoon, winds remain northerly across the region, but may see a slight uptick in winds across western Nebraska. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph are expected across the Panhandle and western Sandhills, with gusts up to 25 mph. This will generally overlap with more seasonal temperatures, and lower relative humidity values, around 20 to 25 percent. Given the dry conditions across the Panhandle, as well as low humidity and gusty winds, expecting a few hours of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across the Panhandle and western Sandhills this afternoon. Given the marginal set up, will forego issuing any fire weather headlines, but caution should be taken with any flame sources across western Nebraska this afternoon, as conditions will support fire growth and spread. Additionally, as the trough tracks across southwest Nebraska, there may be sufficient lift for a few light rain showers during the afternoon hours. However, with relatively meager moisture available, expecting very little to no precipitation to reach the surface.

Attention turns to Friday night, as cloud cover clears out across the region, with very light surface winds. This will allow for stronger radiational cooling across most of western and north central Nebraska. Currently, forecast lows are in the upper 20s to lower 30s across most of the region, but deterministic guidance remains on the warmer side of the ensemble forecasts. In fact, ensemble guidance shows a narrow spread of overnight lows in the 20s across the region, ranging from the low 20s near the 25th percentile and the upper 20s in near the 75th percentile. With this in mind, blended temperatures closer to the 50th percentile, bringing slightly cooler temperatures into the forecast. However, there may still be some room for temperatures to lower, should confidence continue to increase. Will again hold off on a freeze headline at this time, but will continue to closely monitor. Regardless of headlines, those with cold sensitive plants and vegetation may want to take precaution to protect plants Friday night.

By Saturday, the upper level low tracks further east, which brings western Nebraska slightly more under the upper level ridge. The region also sees an influx of warmer temperatures aloft, specifically at the 850 mb level. This will favor warming temperatures across the region, with highs reaching into the 70s across most of the region. For areas along and west of Highway 83, may seem highs around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal average, bringing lower relative humidity values in the afternoon. At this time, expecting afternoon humidity values in the 10 to 15 percent range, west of Highway 83. This may bring additional elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Saturday afternoon across western Nebraska. However, winds remain somewhat limited, with sustained west winds around 10 to 15 mph, and gusts around 20 mph. Winds quickly diminish after sunset Saturday evening. With the warmer temperatures aloft, not expecting as strong of a cool off Saturday night, with lows expected to range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 338 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A quiet and dry end to the weekend and beginning of next week is expected across western and north central Nebraska. Weak upper level ridging will keep conditions dry for the most part with minimal precipitation. There is a very low chance of some isolated showers Sunday night as storms develop off the Black Hills and push southeastward. Confidence at this time is very low in showers making it over the border, but will maintain a brief mention in the forecast at this time. Temperatures will remain mild through early week with highs in the 70s.

The next potential for significant precipitation arrives on Monday night and into Tuesday night. A frontal boundary will be draped across Nebraska and the central Plains allowing for some showers and thunderstorms to develop. At this time, instability is on the weaker side and therefore, not anticipating any severe storms, but will continue to monitor this. Rain showers combined with cloudy conditions will keep temperatures on the cooler side. Not expecting highs to rise much above the low 60s for the middle of the week.

High pressure and strong upper level ridging build back into the region on Wednesday lasting through at least Thursday. This will not only bring another period of dry conditions, but also a return to warmer temperatures. Highs return into the 70s and low 80s for the end of next week.

Despite some precipitation chances mid-week, the continued dry and warm conditions will keep some fire concerns around for much of next week. While some areas are starting to green-up, much of the fuel remains dry and ready to burn. As such, there is also some concern heading into Tuesday with the potential, albeit low potential, of some isolated convection. With QPF remaining fairly limited, there is a possibility of additional fire starts with any of these storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Quiet aviation conditions are expected through tonight. No precipitation is expected and skies remain clear to mostly clear. Winds remain near or under 10 knots but will shift from the northwest Friday morning to the northeast by the evening before becoming variable again tonight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.