textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and tomorrow. Today, the main threat will be early in the day, from the lingering overnight storms. Locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, and large hail are expected to be the main threats.

- Thursday, the main threat for thunderstorms will be areas east of Highway 83 in the afternoon and evening hours. At this time, strong wind gusts and large hail appear to be the main threats.

- Temperatures increase for late week and the weekend, along with a continued threat for near daily thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A frontal boundary continues to track south across South Dakota, providing ample forcing for thunderstorms, despite the overnight conditions. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints remain in the upper 60s. The 00z KLBF sounding reveals quite a deep layer of moisture in the environment, resulting in a PWAT value of 1.24 inches. The sounding also reveals abundant instability in the environment with strong deep layer shear. Should any storms initiate in this environment, the environment should remain capable of supporting discrete cells initially. However, as convection continues to track across the region, and as we approach dawn, expecting this will eventually become more of a multi-cell threat, with discrete cells still remaining possible. Given this environmental set up, the main threats will likely favor large hail, especially with stronger cells, and strong wind gusts with any storm. However, the ample moisture will also support a threat for locally heavy rainfall. All this to say, a busy overnight period is expected, with the severe weather threat continuing into the morning hours. Overnight, the two main corridors of thunderstorms are expected to be areas along and south of Interstate 80 and areas along and east of Highway 83 across north central into central Nebraska. After sunrise, though, the main area of thunderstorm activity is expected to remain just across portions of north central and central Nebraska east of Highway 83. Storms are expected to linger through the morning hours, before eventually pushing out of the region to the east.

After the morning thunderstorms track out of the region, most of the region is expected to see dry conditions throughout the day. The exception would be the far eastern portions of the CWA, where lingering showers and thunderstorms may persist into the afternoon. However, do not believe there will be much, if any, severe threat with the activity lingering into the late morning to early afternoon. Otherwise, skies begin to clear throughout the day, with near seasonal to slightly cooler than seasonal highs. For reference, highs this time of year are typically around 87 to 88 degrees. Current forecast highs are mostly in the 80s, with portions of north central Nebraska in the upper 70s (where precipitation and cloud cover may lag behind). This brief period of quieter weather, largely driven by a surface high pressure system, is expected to last overnight and through thursday morning.

Thursday, another low pressure system tracks into the region, bringing another surface boundary. Will again see dewpoints pushing into the mid to upper 60s east of Highway 83, providing ample moisture for additional showers and thunderstorms. With daytime heating pushing highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s, should see sufficient instability building across the region, though this does appear to be greatest for areas east of Highway 83, where deeper moisture remains. This will again set up an environment capable of producing strong to severe thunderstorms. Given the current forecast conditions, cannot rule out the potential for the strongest cells to produce large hail and strong wind gusts. However, will continue to keep a close eye on how this all continues to evolve over the next 24 to 36 hours.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Upper ridging then begins to establish across the Rockies and amplifies into the weekend. This brings increasing warm advection, with highs return to the upper 80s to lower 90s for late week and this weekend. The warmest day look to be Friday, where portions of western and southwest Nebraska may approach the lower to middle 90s. The threat for storms also looks to persist into Friday and beyond, with ample flow aloft keeping strong deep layer shear in place. Friday looks of particular concern across portions of the Sandhills, where backed southeasterly surface winds suggests some threat for increased low-level shear as well. With deep moisture remaining in place, a favorable overlap of instability and shear exists for severe storms across the area Friday afternoon and evening. Some threat for severe storms may persist into the weekend as well. Guidance then diverges somewhat into next week, though still point towards continued northwest flow aloft. This suggests that the threat for near daily storms may persist across the area into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Scattered thunderstorms remain possible through late Wednesday morning, leading to periods of MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds. In addition, low stratus and patchy fog development is possible for terminals east of HWY 83, and persists into early afternoon. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail this afternoon and into tonight across all of western and north central Nebraska.

Northerly winds prevail through the day, at 5 to 10kts. Winds then gradually become southerly overnight, at 5kts or less.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.