textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Some storms could be strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Isolated thunderstorms Wednesday evening and overnight. A few of these storms could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- A threat for thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday. A few strong to severe storms possible Thursday. The severe threat remains uncertain Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

This evening and overnight...Surface low pressure will deepen across Colorado and southeast Wyoming by early evening. Dewpoints recover into the mid 50s to near 60 by mid evening. A warm front across southwest into central Nebraska early evening will lift north into northern Nebraska by late evening. A mid level disturbance from eastern Colorado and western Kansas early evening will lift northeast during the evening and overnight. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across portions of western and north central Nebraska. With a strong southerly low level jet expected to develop south of the surface front, this will aid in sustaining storms into much of the overnight hours. With ample instability and deep layer shear remaining in place, a threat for large hail and damaging winds are possible across much of the area. Western and north central Nebraska is covered with a Slight Risk of severe storms for areas south of a Lisco through Valentine line. Recent runs of the HRRR focus thunderstorms along a corridor from Ogallala through Bassett, while the 3km NAM develops a wider swath north of Ogallala through Bartlett. Locally heavy rainfall is possible where thunderstorms focus and train across the same locations. WPC has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across the Sandhills tonight. Other storms are still possible across the remainder of southwest Nebraska this evening, though coverage looks more isolated.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...A weak surface trough across the area will keep winds light and variable. Surface low pressure will again deepen across eastern Colorado through early evening. A weak disturbance will move from New Mexico into eastern CO/western KS by late Wed. aftn, then more into nctrl KS/sctrl NE. Ample moisture and instability will be present ahead of the disturbance. Guidance solutions vary widely on if and how much convection may form. The CAMS remain very limited on development, with isolated coverage expected. Any storms that do develop would likely become strong to severe and pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Late Thursday afternoon and evening, a shortwave trough will move across the Northern Plains. An MCS is shown to develop across South Dakota and may move across north central Nebraska during the evening. This is where a Slight Risk for severe storms exists (south Dakota into portions of north central and northeast NE). Damaging wind would be the primary threat, with isolated large hail possible. Other storms may develop off the higher terrain to our west and move across southwest and central NE, though coverage and severe threat is more uncertain.

The upper flow becomes more zonal Friday and Friday night. Storm chances are best across north central Nebraska, where a warm front is forecast to locate near the NE/SD border.

Highs from the upper 80s to low 90s Thursday and Friday.

Looking into Saturday (Independence Day), the upper flow remains fairly zonal across the Northern and Central Plains. Thunderstorm chances increase Saturday afternoon and evening. Upper ridging returns to the region Sunday through Tuesday, with the potential for thunderstorms limited due to weaker flow in the mid and upper levels and warmer temperatures aloft.

Highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid to upper 80s warm back into the upper 80s to low 90s Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 701 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Thunderstorms are expected across the region tonight, however, conditions are mostly expected to remain VFR based on ceilings. The main concerns with any storms this evening will be gusty and erratic winds, including potentially severe wind gusts. As storms exit the region, clouds remain overnight, with mostly light winds slowly shifting to westerly by morning and northwesterly by mid morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.