textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow possible over the far northeast tonight with little to no accumulation expected.

- Light rain and snow showers are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night with the greatest threat over the western half of the forecast area.

- Warmer and dry Wednesday through Monday with above normal temperatures likely.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

H5 analysis this morning had a high amplitude trough which extended from New England, south to off the coast of the Carolinas and Georgia. Within this trough, a strong shortwave was located over western Ontario. West of this trough, low amplitude ridging was present across the western half of the CONUS. Topping this ridge were a couple of shortwaves which were present over western Montana and northeastern Montana into northwestern North Dakota. West of this ridge, a shortwave trough extended from the Gulf of Alaska, south-southeast along the west coast of Canada. At the surface, high pressure was anchored over Manitoba. Low pressure was located over southwestern North Dakota. A quasi stationary front extended southeast of the low into south central South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska. A surface trough extended south of the front into central Nebraska. West of this surface trough, winds were northerly and gusty with wind speeds up to 35 MPH at Imperial. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy across western and north central Nebraska and 2 PM CT temperatures ranged from 38 degrees at O'Neill and Broken Bow, to 56 degrees at Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The disturbance over western Ontario, will track southeast tonight, forcing a low amplitude, southwest to northeast oriented trough through the upper Mississippi valley. This feature will track from the Dakotas, clipping northeastern Nebraska tonight. Colder air will back into the eastern half of the forecast area overnight. At the same time, weak mid level forcing in the form of warm air advection and weak frontogenesis will track southeast from the eastern Dakotas through northeastern portions of the forecast area tonight into Monday morning. The inherited forecast did have some slight chance pops in the northeastern forecast area tonight. This was retained with this forecast package and expanded some to the southwest based on this morning's HRRR and hi res NAM solns. That being said, qpf's are only a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch at best, thus the slight chance pops. A second disturbance, will drop southeast from the western Dakotas Tuesday afternoon/Night, bringing another threat for light precipitation across the area. Mid level forcing will be further enhanced by upper level lift on the left front quadrant of an approaching jet streak. This feature will track across western Nebraska overnight, bringing an end to the precipitation threat by Wednesday morning. As for p-types in association with this disturbance, forecast soundings indicate a decent chance for all rain Tuesday afternoon for most locations with the main changeover to snow Tuesday evening into the overnight. Steep lapse rates Tuesday afternoon do indicate a threat for showery type precipitation which if the thermal was colder, would be indicative of locally intense snow showers. ATTM, this threat appears to be anchored primarily over the northwestern forecast area and is not expected as far south as the I-80 corridor Tuesday afternoon. As for QPF's the latest NBM ensembles indicate a 40 to 60% chance of 0.01 inches of QPF from 6 PM to Midnight Tuesday evening from the Pine Ridge, southeast to Custer County. When this threshold is increased to a tenth of an inch, the max probability decreases to less than 10 percent. With this in mind, even with 100% of qpf being snow, any snow amounts will be a dusting to up to a half an inch. As for precipitation chances, I did go ahead and increase chances along a line from the Pine Ridge into Custer county where I have the highest confidence in reaching measurable (0.01 inches of QPF).

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 306 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The pattern will amplify across the CONUS midweek as a ridge of high pressure builds into the western CONUS. At the same time, a broad, positive tilted trough of low pressure will extend from eastern Canada into the lower Mississippi Valley. This ridge will force any arctic air east of the forecast area leading to above, to well above normal temps across the forecast area. Looking at the EFI and SOT EC ensemble forecast, Thursday and Friday look to be the warmest with the greatest potential for very warm temps over the Panhandle into Wyoming and western South Dakota. For North Platte, the latest NBM has trended upward for highs Thursday with a reading of 65 degrees for LBF. This is still on the low side of the 25th to 75th %ile forecast with the median forecast around 67 degrees. This would be two degrees shy of a record high for the 5th of February. Friday appears to be slightly cooler as a back door cool front noses into northeastern Nebraska. This will lead to highs in the middle 40s for the northeast, while southwestern Nebraska sees forecast highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. For perspective, highs in the upper 50s for this time of year are 15 to 20 degrees above normal as average highs range from the upper 30s in the northeast to the lower 40s in the southwest. The ridge will transition east late this weekend, being undercut by a shortwave trough across the swrn CONUS. This feature will track across the southern plains Sunday night into Monday with the threat for precipitation being focused over Texas and Oklahoma.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Abundant high level cloudiness will continue to lift into western and northwestern Nebraska this afternoon with broken ceilings around 20000 FT AGL expected. Lower ceilings will drift into northern and northeastern Nebraska later tonight as a cold front passes through the area. Ceilings will approach MVFR levels at the KVTN terminal after 09z Tuesday with ceilings ranging from 2500 to 3500 FT AGL.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.