textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon in forecast zone 204 and a red flag warning is in effect. Additional fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

- There is a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly east of the panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe threats.

- Cooler temperatures arrive this weekend with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A volatile convective setup for severe thunderstorms looks to be in the cards later this afternoon and tonight. In the wake of exiting convection overnight, a surface trough of low pressure will deepen off to the west of the forecast area. This will lead to increasing southerly winds today across the area. Abundant low level moisture exists off to the south of the forecast area over Kansas. This airmass will move north unimpeded today, allowing dew points to reach well into the 60s east of the Nebraska Panhandle. By afternoon, the dryline will sharpen over the panhandle. At the same time, mid level forcing will lift northeast from the central and northern Rockies onto the central and northern plains. Thunderstorms are expected INVOF the dryline later this afternoon mid to late afternoon. Activity will quickly intensify as it tracks east of the panhandle into very rich low level moisture, SB CAPES of 4000+J/kg and very steep mid and low level lapse rates. Deep layer shear this afternoon ranges from 35 to 45 KTS which will be sufficient to support supercell thunderstorms. Given the degree of DCAPE this evening, thoughts are initially a large hail threat...IE. straight hodographs...transitioning to a more linear mode of convection with strong winds this evening. Precipitation will push east of the forecast area overnight. On Wednesday, surface low pressure will be forced east into the eastern Dakotas, forcing a surface trough through the forecast area. This will lead to westerly and northwesterly winds Wednesday. Much drier air will be forced east of the panhandle through most of the forecast area Wednesday, leading to no threat for precipitation. The drier air will combine with afternoon highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s, leading to low minimum relative humidity Wednesday afternoon and fire weather concerns. This is highlighted below in the fire section. Later Wednesday evening, mid level warm air advection will spread across the forecast area Wednesday night along with a cold frontal passage, leading to a threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area. ATTM, no severe storms are anticipated with this activity Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Behind the front Thursday, highs will only reach into the 70s. Winds will turn back around to the south Friday, allowing much warmer air to push into the region. Moisture return will be lacking this weekend with the GFS and NBM solns having surface dew points in the 40s to lower 50s. The EC soln pushes some lower 60 dew points into southern Nebraska Saturday with a warm frontal boundary present over southern Nebraska. This would favor an increasing threat for precipitation Saturday into Sunday which is depicted in the latest NBM forecast. As for temperatures this weekend, the forecast are comes under the influence of an upper level low over the northern Great lakes and Ontario. This leads to cooler temperatures extending into next week with highs Sunday and monday in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout most of today and tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Winds remain gusty out of the south to southeast this afternoon and evening. By late afternoon and evening, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across western Nebraska tracking east across the region. These storms are likely to produce very gusty and erratic winds, large hail, and potentially tornadoes. These storms may also bring brief, localized MVFR to IFR ceilings. Have covered this with a TEMPO group, as confidence in timing of peak severe concerns is around medium confidence. As storms track out, expect shifting winds from the northwest as a cold front passes. While wind gusts diminish overnight, gusty conditions are again expected to develop by the morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

A dryline will set up across the panhandle this afternoon. Along and west of this feature, a combination of very warm temperatures and dry air will lead to minimum RH of 10 to 20 percent, generally west of highway 61. Southerly winds will increase later this morning, with gust potential approaching 35 to 40 MPH per the latest NAM Bufkit soundings. East of the dryline, southerly wind speeds will be lower and abundant low level moisture will alleviate fire weather concerns. Wednesday will feature breezy westerly and northwesterly winds with low afternoon relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent across the area. The combination of gusty westerly and northwesterly winds may lead to critical fire weather conditions in western areas where fuels are receptive to fire spread. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible on Thursday and Friday over western portions of the forecast area. Minimum relative humidity with range from 15 to 20 percent in zone 204 with wind gust potential to 35 MPH on Thursday and 30 MPH on Friday. Fire weather conditions will improve on Saturday and Sunday with cooler highs expected across the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.