textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow moving upper level low pressure system will bring good chances for showers and thunderstorms today through tonight.

- Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon mainly west of Highway 83.

- Below average temperatures are expected Monday through Wednesday due to a Canadian airmass that settles southward into the region. Chances for rain enter the picture Wednesday into Wednesday night. Temperatures will be closer to average by week's end.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 112 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Today and tonight, the closed upper low will be located over central Wyoming at 12Z this morning. A lead disturbance will lift into north central NE this morning with likely POPs for showers. The upper low will move over the WY/NE/SD border area by late afternoon. Persistent isentropic upglide will maintain low cloud ceilings on Sunday. With soundings fairly saturated, it will not take much lift to generate at least light rain showers across much of the area today into tonight. Therefore POPS are likely to categorical through the day across the northwest Sandhills to only a slight chance to low chance POPS portions of southwest into central NE. The upper low will also provide cooler air aloft and steep mid level lapse rates. SBCAPEs may range from 500-750 J/kg with deep layer shear 35-40kts. This will provide the potential for a few strong to severe low- topped storms during the afternoon, mainly west of Highway 83. The past few runs of the HRRR show clusters of storms developing in the panhandle around noon CDT and moving east as an arcing line eastward to near Highway 83 by 4 PM CDT. Hail and strong to severe wind gusts will be an initial threat with storm clusters in the far western Sandhills, transitioning to a wind threat further east as a line develop. SPC currently has a Marginal Risk of severe storms from the southern panhandle across far southwest NE. Likely POPs in showers and a few thunderstorms across the western Sandhills into north central Nebraska during the morning, followed by likely to categorical POPs for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. By late Sunday night, the closed upper low will extend from south central SD into southwest MN. NBM probability of greater than 0.25 inch ending 12Z Monday is from 60 to over 90 percent for areas west of Ogallala through Butte. Highs today will be cooler from the upper 50s to lower 60s much of north central and central Nebraska to upper 60s far southwest.

Monday and Monday night, the upper trough will extend over South Dakota, southern MN, northern NE and Iowa. Chance POPs for showers north central NE, with just a slight chance in the afternoon. Skies continue to look overcast across north central NE with some breaks of sun southwest. Upslope flow in the lower levels will keep the atmosphere cool with highs again from the upper 50s northeast to near 70 far southwest. The upper trough will slowly move east with weak northwest flow aloft Monday night. A slight chance for light rain showers central Sandhills into central NE. Cloudy and cool with lows 44 to 50.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 112 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Ridging aloft will translate eastward across the region Tuesday. This should help to bring a brief pause in rain chances. Temperatures will remain cooler than average as the low-level flow will be originating from the high pressure across southeast Canada. Highs Tuesday will struggle into the upper 50s across north central Nebraska with lower to mid 60s expected across the rest of the area. Still rather cool Wednesday despite winds shifting to the south- southeast. A shortwave will lift from the central Rockies to the Northern Plains by Wednesday night. The airmass will be rather dry with the origins from Canada, but some Gulf moisture may try and mix in across the western High Plains as the easterly flow across Texas turns northward. This may allow for scattered late afternoon convection to develop late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as weak cold front moves southeast into the area. Most ENS members and the operational ECMWF then build a ridge of high pressure into the region Thursday into Friday. High temperatures moderate into the 70s as this occurs.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Rain showers will become fairly widespread across north central NE this morning. Scattered -TSRA will develop in the panhandle this morning and moving into western NE this afternoon and evening.

IFR/LIFR ceilings at the KVTN terminal the next 24 hours. Visibilities as low as 1SM until 17Z. -SHRA after 15Z through the end of the TAF period. At KLBF, IFR ceilings should improve to MVFR after 17Z. -TSRA is possible 21Z-00Z. After 00Z, ceilings may improve to VFR, then back to MVFR after 05Z.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.