textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat persists across all of western and north central Nebraska through Monday afternoon. Heat index values in excess of 100 degrees each day will increase the threat for heat related illnesses.

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon today through Monday. A few storms could be strong to severe each day, with a threat for damaging wind gusts.

- The pattern will transition to a northwest-flow regime, bringing periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday and continuing into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Temperatures have soared into the lower triple digits across the entire area this afternoon, with dangerous heat concerns for all of western and north central Nebraska. The highest heat index values thus far have been observed across north central Nebraska, where they have locally approached 110-115F.

With deep diurnal mixing already underway, the anomalously warm temperatures aloft (H85 temps exceeding 90th percentile) have promoted temperatures as high as 102-107F. Though dewpoints have largely fallen into the upper 40s to 50s along and west of HWY 83, the warm temperatures will keep dangerous heat going into this evening. Further east, much richer surface dewpoints is leading to a dangerous combination of heat and humidity. Little to no relief is expected overnight tonight, as lows only fall into the middle 70s.

Scattered thunderstorm development is also possible through this afternoon and into the evening, along a weak surface trough positioned across the western Sandhills. Any storms that form will likely pose a risk for strong to damaging winds, with very large T/Td spreads leading to deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. In fact, DCAPE values are currently exceeding 2000J/kg across much of the Sandhills. Adequate deep layer shear (25-35kts) will allow for some updraft organization today, and these high based thunderstorms could bring a risk for damaging winds mainly north of HWY 2 through early evening. With precipitation falling into such a dry boundary layer, limited rain accumulations may pose some threat for dry lightning may develop this afternoon as well. A loss of diurnal instability should allow for any lingering thunderstorms to quickly wane after sunset.

Yet another very hot day is in store again tomorrow, with highs again climbing to above 100F. Some guidance suggests tomorrow may be slightly warmer than even today, and this will again promote dangerous heat index values well above 100F for much of the area. Again considered an expansion in Extreme Heat headlines for tomorrow, though lingering uncertainty with how far east the deeper mixing occurs tomorrow precludes this tomorrow. It is where the highest dewpoints (and lesser mixing) remains tomorrow where the greatest threat for heat index values of 105-110F will exist. Trends will continue to be monitored for possible expansion, though it will be dangerously hot everywhere regardless. Another round of scattered thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening, mainly near and east of HWY 83 along a weak cool front. A few of these storms could again be severe, with damaging wind gusts as the main threat in the well mixed airmass.

Though the aforementioned weak cool front pushes through the area Sunday night, this is expected to bring limited relief from the heat. With anomalously warm temperatures aloft still Monday, highs again climb into the upper 90s to low 100s, and heat index values will approach 100-105F yet again. Heat precautions will need to be continued into Monday across all of western and north central Nebraska. Yet again, scattered high-based thunderstorms will be possible within a broad easterly upslope regime Monday afternoon, as storms move east off the high terrain. Damaging winds again look to be a threat, with the inverted-v thermodynamic profiles still in place.

Some heat relief finally arrives Tuesday, as the warmer temperatures aloft are ushered to the southeast. Still, highs in the 90s and lingering humidity will push heat index values into the middle 90s. Though not as hot as previous days, the heat relief will remain limited across the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Wednesday, a strong 597-dam 500-mb upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the southwestern United States. Increasing warm air advection (WAA) will support 850-mb temperatures rising into the 25 to 30C range. Given sufficient daytime mixing, these temperatures would support highs in the middle 90s across much of the area, with a few locations potentially reaching the lower 100s. As the ridge shifts slightly southwestward, the forecast area will transition into more of a northwest-flow (ring of fire) pattern. This pattern typically favors weak disturbances tracking along the northern periphery of the ridge, resulting in periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. Recent model guidance has begun to depict convection developing across Wyoming and western Nebraska before moving southeast toward the forecast area, which is a common evolution in this pattern. At this time, the severe weather threat appears low, as the strongest deep-layer shear is forecast to remain north of the area. However, precipitation chances and any associated severe weather potential will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. Overnight lows will remain mild, generally in the middle 60s.

Thursday, northwest flow aloft will remain in place as the upper- level ridge stays centered over Colorado. High temperatures will once again climb into the middle 90s across much of the area. Some model guidance continues to suggest a weak shortwave disturbance moving southeast through the flow, which would provide another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence in the timing and coverage of any precipitation remains low at this range. Overnight lows will once again remain mild, generally in the middle 60s.

Friday through the weekend, the upper-level ridge is expected to remain amplified across the western United States, maintaining northwest flow aloft across the central Plains. Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal, with highs generally in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees as the primary storm track remains north of the region. Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue as additional weak disturbances move through the northwest flow. While these disturbances should provide occasional opportunities for precipitation, widespread wetting rainfall does not appear likely at this time. Forecast confidence in the timing and placement of these disturbances remains low and will continue to be refined over the coming forecast cycles.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow afternoon across western and north central Nebraska. The exception to this would be with any thunderstorms this afternoon for terminals north of HWY 2. These storms would pose a risk of brief MVFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds.

Winds remain gusty from the south through this evening, with gusts as high as 20 to 30kts expected. Winds remain southerly overnight, at 10 to 20kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ004-005- 008-009-022>028-035>038-056>059-069>071-094. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ006-007-010- 029.