textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- The combination of near record temperatures, dry conditions and gusty west winds will lead to critical fire weather concerns across portions of the Sandhills and western Nebraska Monday.

- Mainly dry, only slight or low chance for any precipitation, and above average temperatures look to persist Tuesday right through the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 302 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

The primary concern for the short term will revolve around a threat for critical fire weather conditions tomorrow afternoon. Additional details can be found in the fire weather section below.

For tonight, expect benign conditions as broad warm advection persists through the overnight hours. By early tomorrow morning, weak surface low pressure will move east across southern South Dakota, dragging a surface trough through the Sandhills. Behind this boundary, westerly winds strengthen by afternoon, leading to gusts as high as 30 to 40 miles per hour across much of the western Sandhills. This strengthening downslope flow will boost temperatures aloft, with H85 temps exceeding the 99th percentile by tomorrow afternoon. As ample mixing occurs across the area, highs will soar into the middle to upper 70s near and south of the HWY 2 corridor. Further north, a cold front will begin to move into the area by late afternoon, and this should bring just enough cold advection to keep highs in the low to middle 60s.

Of greatest concern, the near record temperatures will combine with dry conditions and push humidity values into the teens across much of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. The aforementioned mixing also looks ample to tap into higher momentum flow aloft, and promote gusts increasing to as high as 30 to 40 miles per hour across the western Sandhills. The extent of the highest gusts remains somewhat low confidence, though 25 to 30 looks to be a good bet for much of the Sandhills into portions of central Nebraska. With this all in mind, have opted for a Red Flag Warning for much of western Nebraska and the Sandhills tomorrow. Opted for an earlier start to headlines (15Z) due to very poor overnight humidity recovery. This should lead to a quick onset of critical humidity with the west winds already strengthening by late morning. This combination of low humidity and gusty west winds look favorable for rapid fire spread and growth. Add in an abrupt west to north wind shift by early evening, and concerns further increase.

The cold front quickly pushes through the area from north to south, with a brief period of gusty winds with its passage as it clears the area shortly after sunset. This increased cold advection pushes lows into the 20s, though winds look to remain breezy through the night with increased mechanical mixing expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 302 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Surface high pressure will be located across the area Tuesday in the wake of Monday night's cold frontal passage. Although temperatures will be cooler Tuesday behind the front, they will still be a few degrees above average, with highs ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday into Thursday expect a gradual transition toward more of a zonal flow. Heights will begin to rise across the Plains as the surface high shifts east of the area. Gusty south winds will develop Wednesday afternoon on the backside of the high, with highs remaining above average Wednesday in the lower to middle 50s. A weak shortwave will skirt eastward across the Northern Plains Thursday. This will drive a weak Pacific cold front southeast through the area with a wind shift to the northwest. There will be a slight to low chance for some very light precipitation, but no beneficial amounts are expected. Attention turns to an upper level shortwave that will be moving across the western CONUS late in the week. It appears that most of this energy will cross the Southern Plains during the weekend, largely keeping our area dry. Temperatures appear to remain above normal as well right though the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through Monday evening. Surface winds will be light tonight. Winds will become gusty from the west, then northwest Monday afternoon, especially across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska, where gust of 25 to 30kts are expected. Winds turn northerly Monday evening, with gusts to 25kts for a few hours behind the cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of western Nebraska and the Sandhills Monday afternoon. Temperatures will again soar to near record values (highs in the 70s) across much of western and southwest Nebraska tomorrow. This will combine with dry conditions and push humidity values into the teens tomorrow afternoon. Also of note, very poor overnight recovery is expected tonight, with maximum humidity values only 45 to 60% across much of the area. As west winds begin to strengthen across western Nebraska by late tomorrow morning, critical fire conditions are expected to develop rapidly. With this in mind, have opted for an early start to fire weather headlines, as early as 8 AM MST/9 AM CST. Westerly gusts strengthen to as high as 30 to 40 miles per hour across the Sandhills tomorrow afternoon.

By late tomorrow afternoon, a cold front will enter northern Nebraska and quickly move south across the area by late evening. This will lead to an abrupt wind shift from west to north, along with increasing north winds with its passage. This would be of concern with any new fire starts tomorrow afternoon, adding confidence to a period of critical fire concerns tomorrow.

Temperatures then cool back into the upper 40s to 50s each day for middle to late week. This will keep humidity values above critical thresholds, though winds do look to increase from the south on Wednesday. Lessening fire concerns are expected beyond tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. This is especially true with widespread wetting moisture not expected over the next week.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday for NEZ204-206.