textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for light rain with a slight (10-20%) chance thunderstorms over north-central NE late afternoon into evening, with light snow possible northwest Sandhills tonight.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions southwestern NE over the weekend.

- Temperatures moderate back to above average into midweek, with near critical to critical fire weather concerns returning by Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The upper level low will continue to track from north central Wyoming into south central South Dakota over the course of the day. A surface low is currently stationed (as of noon today) over southwestern South Dakota and will make its way across South Dakota ahead of the upper level low. Later this afternoon, the threat of precipitation will return across the northern part of the state as there will be favorable lift wrapping around the southwestern part of the existing surface low. Precipitation will start out as rain showers before changing to snow in the evening to overnight hours. While snow accumulations will be little to none across north-central NE, the 50th percentile for snow accumulations for the higher elevations of the Pine Ridge is 1 - 2 inches. This area nicely lines up for a pocket of -5 C H85 temps, pushing surface temps into the low to mid 20s. Total QPF remains a couple hundreths to a tenth of an inch across north-central NE. There is a slight chance (10 - 20%) of a thunderstorm or two developing over the Sandhills but is not expected to be strong or long lasting.

The system will quickly exit the region, with dry and gusty conditions Saturday. Winds are expected to be northwest at 20 - 30 mph with ensemble guidance giving a 70 - 90 percent probability for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph. Highs in the southwest are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s (near normal) and mid 40s to low 50s (5 to 10 degrees below normal) in the northeastern areas of our region. With the possibility of gusty winds, there is some elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns over southwest NE where humidity percentages is in the low to mid 20s. Sunday will see a warmup before cooler air dropping in. Highs are forecasted to be in the low to upper 60s across much of the region (5 to 10 degrees above normal). Breezy northwest winds (10 to 15 mph gusting to 20 mph) looks to stay northeast of the area of lowest humidity (mid teens to low 20s) but has some overlap over central NE where RH percentages are in the low to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Upper ridging begins to establish across the Intermountain West as we head into next week, with increasing warm advection leading to highs moderating back above average into midweek. Light precipitation is possible (20-40%) late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, as a weak warm front pushes west to east across the area aloft. At this time, little to no accumulations are expected.

The concern then quickly turns to fire weather, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday, as highs climb back into the upper 60s to 70s. Though winds look to increase both days across the area, lingering low level moisture on Tuesday may keep humidity elevated enough to keep any critical fire weather concerns limited. The more concerning day looks to be Wednesday, as strengthening downslope flow establishes by Wednesday afternoon. This will push highs into the upper 70s and potentially lower 80s across portions of western and southwest Nebraska. This will lead to an overlap of low humidity, gusty west winds, and above average temps across much of the area. Unfortunately, this looks to precede a cold frontal passage by the late evening to early overnight hours Thursday as ridge breakdown occurs, with a sharp wind shift expected. As such, a period of near critical to critical fire concerns is looking increasingly probable for Wednesday across portions of the area. A threat for showers and thunderstorms also exists ahead of this cold front, though enough moisture should be in place to avoid a threat for dry lightning. Any precipitation remains low confidence, tied to differences in frontal timing, though trends will need to be monitored.

Cooler temperatures return and remain in place late week, with lesser fire weather concerns expected. Some threat for precipitation may persist into late week as well, though vast differences in model guidance reduces confidence to very low. NBM probabilities of any precipitation (>0.01") do increase substantially towards the end of the week, though these appear too broad in nature for now. The probability for more substantial moisture (>0.25") peaks at ~30-50% east of HWY 83 at this time, suggesting some optimism for beneficial moisture late week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Some MVFR and IFR conditions are likely to prevail over northern Nebraska tonight through early Saturday morning. There will be some scattered showers moving through north-central Nebraska during the evening hours tonight but should clear out just after midnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail elsewhere with northwest winds starting to pick up early Saturday morning at 15 to 20 gusting to 35 kts, lasting through the day.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ210-219.