textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate confidence continued showers Saturday with some isolated thunderstorms Saturday evening.

- Low to moderate confidence more organized, severe thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon and evening.

- High confidence in meaningful rainfall (over a half inch) Sunday night and into Monday.

- After a brief lull in precipitation Monday evening, additional rain and snow is possible across the area Monday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to push eastward throughout the next few hours. Overall, the showers and embedded thunderstorms will remain more stratiform in nature with little expected as far as stronger or severe storms. The main threat with these lingering showers will be lightning which many cause additional fire concerns across the region as minimal QPF (less than 0.10 in.) is expected.

Isolated light rain will continue into the day on Saturday, falling mainly across northern Nebraska. Rainfall totals during the day on Saturday will remain less than a tenth of an inch for most locations and only up to 0.20 where the heaviest rain will fall in the north. Cold air advection into the region combined with cloudy and rainy conditions will keep temperatures on the cooler side on Saturday. Highs will range from the mid 40s in the north to the mid 50s south of I-80. Isolated to scattered precipitation continues into tonight, however the majority of convection should remain just to the south and east of north central Nebraska. Even if an embedded thunderstorm does develop, not expecting it to become severe as limited instability will exist in an environment that has been worked over the past few days. Temperatures drop into the upper 20s in the Pine Ridge tonight which may allow some snow may return to the northwest region as temperatures drop to near and below freezing. Little to no accumulations are expected as temperatures only briefly fall below freezing and snow lands on already wet surfaces making accumulations difficult.

Heading into Sunday, widespread showers are expected throughout much of the day. Some of these showers will develop in an environment more favorable for more organized convection, with a low to moderate potential of some severe storms. The majority of the instability to support severe storms is expected to remain to the south across Kansas. However, some decent support will still push into portions of south and north central Nebraska. While not expecting widespread severe storms, some storms could become severe especially Sunday evening. Best potential for any severe storms will generally be southeast of a Imperial to North Platte to O'Neill line, but some stronger storms could develop as far north as the central Sandhills and into the Valentine area. Despite a favorable environment, there is still some uncertainty regarding development, timing, and strength of these storms. Some of the latest guidance is indicating much of Sunday morning and afternoon being dry and precipitation not developing until late afternoon. In this case, some clearing of skies will even be possible, which may help to support diurnal heating and instability in the afternoon resulting in a greater potential for severe storms later Sunday evening. Will continue to monitor the severe potential over the next few days.

Regardless if severe convection or not can develop, one thing that is fairly certain is the precipitation amounts Sunday evening and into the night. Despite some of the latest guidance decreasing QPF slightly, confidence remains high that many locations will see at least a half inch of QPF, with some locations across extreme north central Nebraska seeing up to an inch or greater. The latest probabilities support this as the probability of seeing over a half inch is 80 percent or higher across the entire forecast area, and the probability of seeing over 1 inch is over 50 percent for areas mainly east of US-83. If this comes to fruition, this will be a welcome relief for much of the region that has been dealing with little to no precipitation for the last few weeks.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Precipitation begins to slowly exit off to the east Monday morning, ending from west to east by late Monday afternoon. A brief lull in precipitation is then expected Monday evening, as shortwave ridging quickly moves across the area aloft. By Monday night, southwest flow returns aloft, as another upper trough begins to push east across the Rockies. As this trough begins to emerge into the Plains by Tuesday morning, scattered precipitation begins to spread from west to east into western Nebraska and the Sandhills. Guidance suggests a threat for mixed p-types at least initially, as temperatures Tuesday morning fall into the middle 30s. Any precipitation then looks to become rain by Tuesday afternoon, as temperatures slowly climb into the 40s to 50s. Confidence in amounts remains somewhat uncertain, though NBM probabilities of >0.25" peak at ~20-30% for areas near and west of HWY 83. Any wintry precipitation is expected to be of little to no impact, with marginal thermos and temperatures expected to rise into the afternoon hours.

Northwest flow establishes aloft as we head into midweek, and the pattern looks to remain active locally. At least a couple shortwaves are expected to traverse the northwesterly flow aloft, and bring at least scattered precipitation chances nearly each day Wednesday through Friday. This will also keep temperatures slightly below average for middle to late week, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Confidence remains low in any precipitation late week for now, though it appears at least additional light accumulations will be possible across portions of western and southwest Nebraska.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Low stratus will expand across all of western and north central Nebraska through early Saturday morning, with widespread IFR/locally LIFR CIGs expected. Rain and snow will also continue across northern Nebraska through sunrise, with periods of MVFR/IFR visibility expected.

Low stratus persists through Saturday afternoon and evening, though some improvement back to MVFR/IFR is expected across the area. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible for terminals east of HWY 61 Saturday afternoon as well, with periods of MVFR visibility possible.

Winds remain northeasterly through the valid period, at 10 to 15kts. Gusts of 20 to 25kts from the northeast continue Saturday morning and afternoon for all terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.