textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Much above normal temperatures Friday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Strong southerly winds are expected, with gusts up to 45 mph, along with low chances for showers and a few thunderstorms Friday night.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms return for this weekend and persist into early next week, leading to the potential for widespread appreciable rainfall for much of western and north central Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Tonight and Friday...An upper level ridge axis will reside over the middle and upper Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough will reside from southern California into western Montana. Ample boundary level moisture with dewpoints in the 50s. A south to southeast wind tonight will increase to 15 to 30 mph with mild lows in the upper 50s to near 60. Windy Friday, with a south wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 35 to 45 mph. Very warm with highs low to mid 80s west and upper 70s to near 80 east. These highs will be from 18 to 25 degrees above normal. Afternoon humidity falls to 28 to 35 percent across the west and 35 to around 40 percent east, limiting fire concerns somewhat, despite the gusty winds.

Friday night and Saturday...Increased chances for showers, with a few thunderstorms Friday night as a cold front arrives in the northwest Sandhills late Friday night. Lows from the upper 30s to mid 40s northwest Sandhills, to mid 50s far southeast. A lead shortwave trough will lift into North Dakota Saturday, pushing the cold front into far southeastern areas. The southern stream closed low will hang back west of the Four Corners across Arizona. Likely chances for showers across southwest into eastern portions of north central Nebraska in the afternoon. Highs from the low to mid 50s northwest Sandhills, to low 60s southwest and far eastern areas. North winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph in the morning, diminish to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Saturday night through Monday, appreciable rainfall looks likely.

Saturday night...The main upper trough and closed low will advance slowly east across the Central Rockies and Four Corners. The cold front is forecast to stall out across far southwest Nebraska through northeast Nebraska through Sunday. As the upper trough/closed low moves very slowly east into northeast Wyoming and Colorado by late Sunday night, showers chances are categorical. NBM 48 hour probability of 0.50 inch or greater ending 12Z Tuesday is 75 to 95 percent, with highest probabilities from Hayes Center through North Platte and Ainsworth. Noteworthy, that greater than 1.0 inch for this same corridor at 75 to 85 percent. The 12Z GEFS ensemble QPF continues to increase from previous runs, now showing rainfall amounts above 1.0 inch east of Valentine through Big Springs, with amounts exceeding 1.75 inches southwest into central Nebraska. The ECMWF is further west, with amounts above 1.0 inch, with highest amounts near 1.5 inches near the Highway 83 corridor. Lows 35 to around 40 Saturday night. Soundings in the northwest Sandhills show any precipitation remaining as rain. Highs Sunday 45 to 55 with an east to northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Could see a mix of rain/snow Sunday night across the northwest Sandhills as H85 temperatures fall below 0C.

Monday into Monday night...The upper trough will cross Nebraska and may develop a closed low over central into eastern Nebraska. Likely to categorical POPs Monday, then lowering to chance pops later Monday night. Colder air drawn in behind the system could bring a mix of rain/snow to north central Nebraska. No accumulations expected at this time, though will monitor model trends and soundings closely.

Tuesday through Thursday...Weak upper ridging should gradually return. Highs in the 50s Tuesday should moderate to the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Lingering light showers possible Tuesday into Tuesday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the effective TAF period across western and north central Nebraska. Mid to high level clouds are expected to track across the region tonight, but are not expected to bring any changes to ceiling conditions. However, a strong low level jet is expected across the region tonight, bringing LLWS concerns region wide. Southerly winds around 2,000 ft agl are expected to remain around 35 to 40 knots through the night, persisting into the morning. However, by morning, should see better mixing in the environment, bringing gusty southerly winds across the region lasting into the evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.