textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible this weekend. The main area of concern is over the panhandle and western Sandhills.

- Thunderstorm chances return Monday, as a complex of storms could materialize Monday evening off the higher terrain to the west.

- Hot temperatures are expected through the middle of next week with highs possibly approaching the 100 degree mark on Tuesday and Wednesday in southwestern Nebraska. - Cooler temperatures are possible toward the end of next week with highs in the 80s and lower 90s Thursday and 70s to middle 80s for Friday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Fire weather concerns Saturday and Sunday are the main forecast concerns in the near term and forecast details are in the fire weather section below. For today, Low amplitude ridging will transition east of the forecast area today. At the same time, surface low pressure will deepen over northern Wyoming, east of an upper level trough of low pressure over the Pacific NW. With the low off to the west of the forecast area today, southerly winds will increase this afternoon forcing warm air northeast from eastern Colorado and western Kansas. By afternoon, H85 temps approach 29-30c over far southwestern Nebraska and the southeastern panhandle. Good mixing is anticipated this afternoon with unidirectional winds from the surface to H850 per the latest NAM bufkit forecast soundings. With the degree of mixing and forecast H85 temps, widespread 90s are likely this afternoon across the forecast area, with the greatest threat for upper 90s over the southeastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska. The latest NBM ensemble has a 60-70% chance of eclipsing the 95 degree mark over SW Nebraska and a large portion of the eastern panhandle this afternoon. As for precipitation chances, the HRRR does develop some convection along the surface trough axis this afternoon over eastern Wyoming. Some of this activity drifts east into the western panhandle before dissipating as it moves into warmer mid level air. Will continue a dry forecast across the area which was in the inherited forecast. Winds will diminish some this evening remaining southerly overnight. Lows will be mild across the area with ranging from around 60 to 65 degrees. On Sunday the upper level trough will migrate across southwestern Canada, ending up in Alberta. As this feature migrates east, the surface trough will become anchored from western South Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle. Very warm air will remain in place along and east of the surface trough Sunday afternoon. Highs will top 90 degrees west of a line from Ainsworth to west of Broken Bow. East of this line, slightly cooler readings are expected especially over the far northeastern forecast area. Slightly cooler air in association with a mid level trough oriented from eastern Kansas into eastern Nebraska will push into eastern and portions of central Nebraska. Along the surface trough Sunday afternoon, some convective initiation is possible with better chances traversing the forecast area Sunday night as a cold front crosses northwestern into north central Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Fire weather concerns Saturday and Sunday are the main forecast concerns in the near term and forecast details are in the fire weather section below. For today, Low amplitude ridging will transition east of the forecast area today. At the same time, surface low pressure will deepen over northern Wyoming, east of an upper level trough of low pressure over the Pacific NW. With the low off to the west of the forecast area today, southerly winds will increase this afternoon forcing warm air northeast from eastern Colorado and western Kansas. By afternoon, H85 temps approach 29-30c over far southwestern Nebraska and the southeastern panhandle. Good mixing is anticipated this afternoon with unidirectional winds from the surface to H850 per the latest NAM bufkit forecast soundings. With the degree of mixing and forecast H85 temps, widespread 90s are likely this afternoon across the forecast area, with the greatest threat for upper 90s over the southeastern panhandle and southwestern Nebraska. The latest NBM ensemble has a 60-70% chance of eclipsing the 95 degree mark over SW Nebraska and a large portion of the eastern panhandle this afternoon. As for precipitation chances, the HRRR does develop some convection along the surface trough axis this afternoon over eastern Wyoming. Some of this activity drifts east into the western panhandle before dissipating as it moves into warmer mid level air. Will continue a dry forecast across the area which was in the inherited forecast. Winds will diminish some this evening remaining southerly overnight. Lows will be mild across the area with ranging from around 60 to 65 degrees. On Sunday the upper level trough will migrate across southwestern Canada, ending up in Alberta. As this feature migrates east, the surface trough will become anchored from western South Dakota into the Nebraska Panhandle. Very warm air will remain in place along and east of the surface trough Sunday afternoon. Highs will top 90 degrees west of a line from Ainsworth to west of Broken Bow. East of this line, slightly cooler readings are expected especially over the far northeastern forecast area. Slightly cooler air in association with a mid level trough oriented from eastern Kansas into eastern Nebraska will push into eastern and portions of central Nebraska. Along the surface trough Sunday afternoon, some convective initiation is possible with better chances traversing the forecast area Sunday night as a cold front crosses northwestern into north central Nebraska.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A shortwave will lift northeast from MT into Canada Sunday night into Monday. As this occurs, a cold front will surge southeast into the area Monday morning, and then stall by midday from north central Nebraska into the southern Panhandle. The front quickly washes out Monday afternoon...as long wave troughing moving onshore the west coast promotes surface cyclogenesis across WY. Winds become southeast across the entire area by Monday afternoon, with lower 60s surface dew points advecting northwestward. Steep mid-level lapse rates will aid moderate to locally strong instability from southwest NE into portions of the Panhandle. CAMs suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop across the higher terrain to the west within the moist upslope flow regime. At least a moderately sheared environment would promote the potential for initial supercell develoment, with several CAM solutions indicating the potential for upscale growth Monday evening across western Nebraska.

As the upper-level troughing advances eastward into the Rockies Tuesday, strong south winds are expected as a deep area of surface low pressure (near 995mb) resides across eastern WY by late in the afternoon. Convection Tuesday is less certain as low-level moisture may tend to mix out for areas west of Highway 83. This could limit the overall potential threat of storms heading into Tuesday night.

Latest indications are that the upper trough continues to move eastward toward the Northern Plains by Wednesday. A significant cold front is now projected to sweep across the area during the day Wednesday. This will likely have an impact on temperatures Wednesday, and a trend downward on highs Wednesday continues. It now appears that Tuesday will likely be the hottest day, with some areas nearing 100 degrees.

Thursday and beyond, a drier, cooler airmass settles in behind Wednesday's cold front. This will put an end to the heat and convective chances for at least a few days heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Areas of IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue across central into portions of southwest Nebraska early this morning. These ceilings will linger until mid-morning when VFR all areas should be then become the rule. Surface winds will increase from the southeast at 10-20 kts with higher gusts this afternoon into tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 AM CDT SAT Jun 6 2026

Near critical to possibly critical fire weather concerns will develop later this afternoon, with the greatest threat over the eastern panhandle and western Sandhills. Fire weather partners in the eastern panhandle (zone 204) continue to stress that fuel conditions are still favorable for fire spread. Highs this afternoon will reach well into the 90s across the western Sandhills and eastern panhandle. As dew points fall into the middle 40s, minimum RH this afternoon will reach the 15 to 20 percent range in the eastern panhandle. As for winds, forecast sounding data indicates good mixing up to H800 in the panhandle with sustained southerly winds of 15 to 25 MPH and gust potential up to 35 MPH during a short window mid to late afternoon. Realize RH criteria will probably fall short of RFW criteria, however, the southerly wind gusts up to 35 MPH are concerning along with the mid 90s forecast highs. After collaboration with CYS, decided to hoist a red flag warning for this afternoon in zone 204.

Sunday may feature critical fire weather concerns once again. However, the latest deterministic NAM does have a surface trough in the central and eastern panhandle during the afternoon which will result in lighter winds INVOF this feature. Minimum RH for Sunday afternoon in zone 204 will be slightly higher compared to Saturday with 20 to 25 percent forecast. Winds on Sunday will remain breezy east of the surface trough with gust potential up to 30 MPH.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.