textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather likely afternoon and evening with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) in place for Central to North Central Nebraska. Hazards include damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two.

-A Tornado Watch has been issued until 10 pm CDT tonight for portions of North Central Nebraska.

- Cooler conditions are expected Monday behind a strong cold front, with periods of rain and a brief changeover to snow possible Monday night, mainly across north-central Nebraska.

- Additional chances for light rain return by late week into next weekend as a more active pattern persists across the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Another severe weather day returns this afternoon into tonight. An strong upper level trough is moving across western CONUS where a shortwave ejects southwesterly flow into eastern NE. There still remains some uncertainty on thunderstorm coverage, but as it stands there is at least moderate to high (60 - 80%) confidence of seeing scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in east north central Nebraska along the SD border. A cold front has initiated and pushed a convective line eastward along the SD/NE border bringing a damaging wind threat. The main area of concern will be a 45 degree enhanced risk line from the CO border near Grant to the SD border near Butte early this evening where CAMS have been showing a trend of eastern progression along a secondary cold front pushing in from the northwest. The environment is quite volatile where MUCAPE ranges from 2000 J/kg to 2500 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates will remain steep through the afternoon to early evening with 0 to 6 km shear increasing to 50+ kts. There as been some uncertainty over the potential of storms developing back westward along the panhandle and southwest NE but will be closely monitored for upcoming developments. Additionally, main threats with any severe storms will be the possibility for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph, large hail (2.5"+) and a strong tornado or two. A Tornado Watch has been issued until 10 pm CDT for north east Nebraska. Severe storms are expected to clear out quickly late tonight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Monday, the longwave trough will settle across the central Rockies into the Four Corners region. Ahead of this system, a shortwave trough will move across western Nebraska during the daytime hours. Strong 700-850mb cold air advection will spread into most of the region through Monday afternoon, leading to a sharp cold front through the area. Behind the front, highs will remain in the 40s across north-central Nebraska, with mid 50s farther south. Currently, the SPC Day 2 outlook moves the greatest thunderstorm and severe threat to the east and southeast of the area, though some thunderstorm risk is still possible for the northeast counties as some lingering elevated instability remains. Behind the system, stronger synoptic lift will persist across western Nebraska into Monday evening. While severe weather is not expected on the cool side of the system, a steadier rainfall may develop across portions of the area. 850mb temperatures will fall around 0C with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, which will support the potential for a brief transition to snow. Currently thinking the duration of this changeover will be quite limited. Since snow in late May is not very common for the area, folks should still pay attention, as some minor impacts could occur.

Tuesday into the end of the week, the main storm system will finally move off to the east of the region with mid to upper level heights building fairly quickly behind it. Zonal mid level flow will become established through mid week. More active weather could impact the area Wednesday through the end of the week, though these systems continue to look weaker compared to the current storm system. Precipitation chances will increase from Thursday through the weekend though, only light rain events appear the most probable at this time. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures will moderate some, with a return to seasonable highs by Thursday and slightly above normal temperatures by the following weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Increasing clouds will bring extensive degraded aviation conditions for western Nebraska terminals.

Early morning satellite shows low clouds expanding across South Dakota to the north and Kansas to the south. This is behind a cold front that passed through the area earlier today. Expect low stratus to eventually fill in over western Nebraska with prolonged MVFR conditions likely. Northern Nebraska, including the VTN terminal, could potentially see IFR/LIFR conditions briefly by late morning. This is hinted at by the usually reliable HRRR output with GFSLAMP suggesting a longer duration period of IFR conditions through the daytime. Will keep the LIFR conditions brief and highlight the longer IFR duration with adjustments likely in later forecasts. Winds should remain fairly steady out of the north with gusts ranging from 20 to 30 knots across the region.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.