textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures and breezy southerly winds Sunday.

- Marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms today through Monday.

- Heat is expected to be a factor Tuesday as highs could climb to above 100 degrees for areas west if Highway 183.

- Somewhat cooler temperatures expected Thursday into the weekend.

- Chance for rain returns Saturday into Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A deepening low to the west will keep breezy conditions through the day. Winds will be the strongest across western Nebraska in closer proximity to the low where sustained southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph will be possible and gusts up to 40 mph. In terms of temperatures for today, the warmest temperatures will be across far western Nebraska, generally just across Sheridan and Garden counties, with a tight gradient of 850 temps around 25 degrees or greater is expected, from there westward. Should see sfc temps in the low to mid 90s with the warmest temperatures in the upper 90s west of the forecast area into the Panhandle. Temperatures will gradually be cooler the farther east into the forecast area where 850 temps will only range from 18 to 20 degrees celsius. The "cooler" temperatures will be across north central Nebraska where highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

As far as fire weather concerns for this afternoon, did hold off on any headlines at this time as confidence is low on meeting criteria, with the southerly winds potentially advecting higher dewpoints leading potentially higher RH. However, do expect to see some elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, especially across western Nebraska where current forecast min RH will be around 20 to 25 percent and winds will be strongest with gusts up to 40 mph.

There is an isolated chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. Greater confidence that any convection will hold off until this evening however. The CAMS haven't been overly enthusiastic with storm development on Sunday however, and do think it will be mainly terrain driven and confidence is pretty low on any widespread organized storms, but can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm developing. Dew points will be in the 50s and CAPE values will be around 1500 to 2000 J/kg, although 0-6 km shear will be marginally around 25 kts, a strong to severe storm can't be ruled out. Would generally expect the main threat to be gusty winds, but large hail can't be ruled out.

For Monday, a cold front will being to advance into the area from the west and this will serve as the focus for storm development, will have to monitor closely as to where the front will stall in the afternoon to have a better idea on locations for convective initiation. Greater forecaster confidence for more organized thunderstorm activity will be Monday late afternoon and evening. Storm mode will likely be super cellular and expect more scattered thunderstorm development. The environment on Monday late afternoon and evening will be more conducive for thunderstorm development than today. 0-6 km shear increases significantly to around 45 to 50 kts. CAPE will increase to around 2500 to 3200 J/kg by Monday evening, along with dew points in the 50s to 60s. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, however a tornado potential can't be ruled out.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

As upper-level troughing advances eastward into the Rockies Tuesday, strong south winds are expected as a deep area of surface low pressure (near 995mb) deepens near the WY/NE border by late in the afternoon. Convection Tuesday remains uncertain as low-level moisture (dew points) mix out west of Highway 83. Still appears that dew points in the upper 40s to near 50 will be in place near a dry line located from western SD through the NE Panhandle and into eastern CO. This would be the slower ECMWF solution, and widely scattered high based convection would could evolve near the dryline by late in the afternoon. Of note, the NAM and GFS are much more aggressive in brining the dryline farther eastward, more into central Nebraska. Richer low-level moisture would be located across this area, but a strong capping inversion due to very warm mid-level temperatures (H7 near 15C) could very well limit convective development. All in all, as mentioned, Tuesday remains uncertain regarding any convective placement or initiation.

The upper trough continues to move eastward toward the Northern Plains by Wednesday. All models mix drier air eastward across the area Wednesday, likely limiting any convection. A significant cold front them sweeps across the area Wednesday night. Hot temperatures are expected Wednesday but especially Tuesday. If the NAM and GFS verify with the faster push of the dryline, highs over 100 degrees would be likely west of Highway 183.

Thursday and Friday, a drier, and somewhat cooler airmass settles into the area. Highs both Thursday and Friday should be in the 80s. By the weekend, some chance for rainfall returns as several weak disturbances appear to dive southeast into the northern Rockies and then turn eastward across the Central Plains. Details remain uncertain, but a more moist airmass should return northward into the area providing an increased chance for rainfall by Saturday night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Surface winds will continue from the south to southeast through today. Low-level moisture will advect northward into the area, and expect MVFR ceilings to develop and spread northward into southwest and central Nebraska around sunrise. These should gradually erode by mid to late morning. VFR is expected all areas by this afternoon. Scattered late afternoon thunderstorms should develop across the Panhandle, possibly moving into western Nebraska tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Another day of gusty south to southeast winds will continue across much of the area. Locations to the west of Highway 2 (western Sandhills and the eastern Nebraska Panhandle will see humidity drop into the 20-25% range this afternoon. This will bring near-critical fire weather conditions for a time during the afternoon hours. Humidity does recover decently tonight into the 75-85% range. A cold front moves through later tonight with a wind switch to the north during the overnight hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.