textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions until early this evening, mainly west of Highway 83 due to gusty northwest winds and very low humidity.

- Severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Cooler with additional showers and a few thunderstorms Monday, then drier and remaining cooler through midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Until early evening, critical fire weather concerns continue, west of Highway 83. Min RH will be very low near 10 percent across the Sandhills into the western Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, with northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gust to 25 mph becoming northerly early evening.

Tonight, a weak cold front will become located east of the area, from near Sioux City IA through Hill City KS and become a focus for thunderstorms this evening. Behind the front, across western NE, dry conditions expected. Light northerly winds this evening will become easterly later tonight. Lows 45 to 50. Synoptically, an upper trough axis will move through the West Coast as the upper flow becomes slightly southwesterly across the region.

Saturday into Saturday night, a large upper trough will deepen across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. This will bring an increasingly amplified southwesterly flow aloft across western NE as surface low pressure deepens across southeast CO and southwest KS, and southeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

A distinct shortwave disturbance in the H5 flow is shown to reach far southeast WY through west central KS by late Saturday afternoon. This will set up a warm front from far southeast WY through northeast CO and northern KS. As noted by the previous forecast shift, an initial round of storms may initiate by afternoon across southwest into central NE within the instability gradient, where MUCAPEs range around 1500 J/kg and deep layer shear increases to 40 to 50 kts. A second round will likely develop along the instability gradient across far northeast CO and northwest KS by late afternoon. MUCAPE values exceeding 2500 J/kg and easterly low level flow north of the warm front beneath moderately strong mid-level flow will promote strong deep-layer shear. Dewpoints will also rise into the 50s south of Interstate 80. So while surface based storms will occur through mid evening, storms should become elevated as the boundary layer becomes less unstable with MUCAPEs concentrated in the H85 to H7 layer.

There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) Saturday afternoon and evening which encompasses much of the forecast area, south of an Alliance through Springview line. An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) resides near and south of Interstate 80. Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado are all possible afternoon to mid evening, with large hail and damaging winds mid through late evening. SPC denotes significant hatching for both (2"+ diameter hail and 80+ mph gusts). The tornado threat is 5% near and south of Grant through Wellfleet, where low-level shear, lower LCL heights, and dewpoints into the 50s reside. A 2% tornado threat further north to near Highways 2 and 91. Timing favors late afternoon until mid evening for surface based activity. Still though, favorable 0-3km shear vectors favorably oriented with any potential MCS could support a brief QLCS tornado later into the evening.

As this disturbance lifts northeast Saturday night, likely to categorical POPs are forecast. NBM mean QPF for Saturday night has increased and is now a quarter to around a half inch.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Sunday, the upper trough axis will move into central MT, south into southern NV. This will drive a cold front to near Bassett through North Platte by late afternoon, with south winds turning southwest ahead of the front. Deep surface low pressure as low as 988MB will extend from south central NE back across wrn KS into sern CO. MUCAPEs should range from 1500-3500 J/kg across the area, with the highest CAPE values near and east of Highway 83. Deep layer shear near 45kts near the surface front. This environment is favorable for organized surface based thunderstorm development near and ahead of the front, which will pose a threat for severe weather, including isolated very large hail (2+inch diameter) damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.

SPC highlights a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) east of Valentine through Grant, with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for areas east of an line from Bassett through North Platte and Hayes Center. The environment will be supportive of organized severe storms back behind the front as well, with large hail, and damaging winds in afternoon and evening hours. The cold front should advance east of the forecast area after midnight with the severe threat diminishing.

Monday, the upper trough axis will lift into the Northern and Central Plains with showers and a few thunderstorms likely. Northerly winds gusty from 20 to 30 mph. The severe threat should be east of the area. Highs will be much cooler from mid and upper 40s 40s northwest Sandhills, to the upper 50s to low 60s far southeast. Showers end Monday night with clearing skies the threat for freezing temperatures from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Cool weather Tuesday/Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday only in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Could see cold lows again as low as 30 to the mid 30s Tuesday night, especially across the west.

Low intermittent shower chances Wednesday through Friday within west northwest flow aloft. Highs in the 60s Wednesday warm into the 70s Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will switch to the northeast this evening around 5 to 10 kts then become more easterly by Saturday morning. Winds will increase late Saturday morning into the afternoon turning to the southeast around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. There will be a chance for isolated thunderstorms storms in the afternoon, becoming more scattered in the evening hours. At this time have left the mention of thunder out of the tafs at this time, as confidence in storm development over the forecast terminals through Saturday afternoon is uncertain. A greater threat for storms to impact KLBF and KVTN terminals will be in the evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for NEZ204-206-210.