textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will impact the forecast area late tonight into Sunday. Wind gusts may reach 50+ MPH for a period Sunday afternoon.

- Light snow is possible, mainly over northern and northeastern portions of the forecast area Sunday. This combined with wind and existing snow on the ground, may produce patchy areas of blowing snow Sunday.

- Temperatures will be highly variable next week with mainly dry conditions expected through Thursday Night. Snow is possible Friday into the weekend mainly over northern into northeastern Nebraska.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 316 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A highly amplified H5 pattern continued across the CONUS and Canada this morning. A high amplitude ridge extended north northwest from southern California toward southern Alaska. East of this feature, a broad longwave trough of low pressure was anchored over the eastern 3/4ths of the CONUS. With in this longwave trough, closed low pressure was present over central Iowa with another shortwave trough noted over eastern Ontario. Northwest of the longwave trough, decent shortwaves were noted over the Yukon and NW Territories of Canada. These two features will end up being the driver of a cold front tonight into Sunday...more about that in the short term section below. At the surface this afternoon, high pressure was present from western South Dakota into northwestern Nebraska. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon across the area. As of 2 PM CT, northwesterly winds were gusting as high as 38 MPH at Imperial. Temperatures ranged from 4 above zero at O'Neill to 19 degrees at Ogallala and Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 316 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Active weather conditions are expected over the next 36 hours across western and north central Nebraska. Surface high pressure will drop south into Kansas, then Oklahoma this evening. Winds will shift to the west, then diminish by late evening. Overnight, surface low pressure will deepen over North Dakota in advance of a strong shortwave, which was present over the Yukon at 12z this morning. This low will track into northern Minnesota overnight forcing a cold front into the forecast area toward daybreak. The front will arrive in two pieces Sunday-the first around sunrise, then a second stronger front Sunday afternoon. With the second front, the threat for snow will increase across northern and northeastern portions of the forecast area as weak lift in the dendritic layer becomes focused across the northeastern forecast area. QPF's are very meager with this system and believe any accumulations will be an inch at best. That being said, am concerned about falling snow tomorrow combining with existing snow and strong northwesterly winds producing travel headaches over my northeast Sunday. ATTM, forecast confidence in measuring an inch of snow is highest across my far northeast tomorrow, and after conversing with our neighbors to the northeast, decided to hoist a winter weather advisory for Sunday in Holt and Boyd counties. Realize snow amounts are well below criteria worthy, but am more concerned about blowing snow potential given the strong winds Sunday.

With respect to winds Sunday. The latest high res models including the HRRR and High Res NAM solns indicate 10m gust potential in the 45 to 55 MPH range Sunday. Winds increase throughout the morning, peaking around midday. Was considering wind headlines initially, but bufkit forecast soundings, probabilistic forecasts from the NBM and statistical guidance falls short of high wind warning criteria gusts. That being said, am expecting periodic wind gusts in the 45 to 55 MPH range Sunday. No doubt, there will be some patchy blowing snow issues where snow fell on Friday, however am more concerned about the combined effects of falling snow and blowing snow impacting travel. ATTM, this is primarily over my far northeast.

Bitter cold air will settle into the forecast area Sunday night leading to lows in the single digits. Was concerned initially about cold weather headlines in the north for Sunday night. However, winds diminish considerably overnight as high pressure builds into northern Nebraska. Light winds should keep wind chills above the -20 degree criteria for cold advisories.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 316 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Arctic high pressure will settle south of the forecast area on Monday shifting wind direction to the west. Even with the west winds, we will be recycling arctic air on the back side of the arctic high. The latest NAM12 this morning has H85 temps at 21z Monday ranging from -5C in the southwest, to -17C in the far northeast. The current forecast based on the NBM has highs ranging from 20 in the northeast to the upper 30s in SW Nebraska. Based on the NAM 850 temp forecast, highs Monday are "optimistic" right now and believe they are on the high side of the ensemble envelope. On Tuesday, a shortwave over western Canada, will dive southeast into the northern High Plains and northern Rockies. Downstream of this feature, surface low pressure will deepen over eastern Montana forcing a warm front into the western half of the forecast area Tuesday morning. Readings will reach the 40s to lower 50s across the area Tuesday afternoon which appears to be the warmest readings expected over the next several days. This warm front will be followed by a cold front Tuesday night resulting in 30s for highs Wednesday. A brief warmup is expected Thursday ahead of another, strong arctic front Thursday night. However, forecast confidence in temperatures decreases significantly after midweek as a decent spread in forecast highs is noted in the NBM. The spread between the 25th and 75th %ile for North Platte's highs Thursday is around 15 degrees in the NBM. This increases to 22 degrees next Saturday and nearly 30 degrees by next Sunday. The deterministic solns including the ECMWF and GFS solns today, drop a significant arctic front Thursday night into Friday with some of the coldest air this winter season noted next Saturday into Sunday. This is reflected in the latest MEX guidance which has highs next Saturday of 6 and 3 degrees for North Platte and Valentine respectively. Behind the arctic front There is also an increased threat for snow Friday into next weekend. This did show up in the latest NBM forecast as pops have trended up with this forecast package. POPS for northern Nebraska are in the 30 to 40 percent range Friday night into Saturday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Mid-level stratus will fill in again across western Nebraska later this morning. Conditions should remain VFR for southwest Nebraska but increasing moisture and light precipitation potential will return to north central Nebraska. This will come in the form of light snow showers and when combined with strong wind gusts, high aviation impacts are likely. Trends have been to carry greater impacts further north and east thus have removed IFR conditions at VTN. Will need to closely monitor this potential, especially as confidence in magnitude of visibility impacts is low at this time. Conditions should slowly improve by late in the period though low stratus should linger into the following period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for NEZ007-010.