textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to high confidence in some isolated to scattered thunderstorms this evening with a marginal severe risk.

- Moderate confidence in strong to severe thunderstorms again Friday night with a heavy rain and flooding potential.

- Rain/thunderstorm chances will continue Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

- Somewhat drier conditions are expected Sunday into the first of next week. There will still be a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, however.

- Below normal high temperatures are expected Saturday through the first of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are currently pushing across north central Nebraska and are expected to continue moving eastward through the early morning hours. Significant instability still exists across the region, especially east of US-83, which should provide a favorable environment to sustain at least stronger storms, if not severe. That being said, a SPC thunderstorm watch remains in effect through 3am CT across much of the region with very large hail as well as damaging wind gusts as the main threats. There is also a potential to see some heavy rainfall with these storms as they begin to transition to more stratiform in nature later this morning (before sunrise). At this time, not anticipating widespread flooding, but some area creeks and streams could see rises leading to some localized minor flooding, especially in ditches and low lying areas.

Lingering showers will likely continue throughout the day on Thursday across northern Nebraska (mainly north of Highway 2). While heavy rainfall is not anticipated, this additional showers may enhance the flooding potential across this area. Elsewhere, cloudy skies are expected. The next round of thunderstorms arrives Thursday night, after 6pm. Main area of severe potential will be across the south as isolated rain showers in the north is expected to hinder severe convection. However, there is also some concern that clouds across the south could also limit severe potential. If some breaks in the cloud cover can be made during the afternoon, it should provide enough support for some low end severe storms later in the evening. Model instability remains weak across the region, though, so any storms that can develop will likely struggle to maintain severe criteria.

A repeat of the past couple days will persist into Friday night, with a mostly dry forecast throughout the day. Isolated thunderstorm chances return by late afternoon and into the evening as peak heating occurs and instability hits a maximum. At this time, instability does appear weaker than the past few days, but some stronger to briefly severe storms cannot be ruled out. One thing that is more certain is that regardless of severe thunderstorms, there is a heavy rain potential on Friday night. With PWATs across the area ranging generally from 1.30 to 1.75, confidence in heavy rainfall and therefore localized flooding is high. This is supported by a slight ERO across portions of the area. However, a lot will depend on the speed of the storm track and whether rainfall can accumulate in one area to add to a flooding concern. Will need to continue to monitor this flooding and heavy rain potential over the next day.

As far as temperatures go, highs will fall back below normals through the end of the week ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s both today and Friday. Overnight lows will remain near normals, dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s through Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 143 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Upper level ridging will remain anchored across the southeast CONUS yet Saturday. The center of the upper high will gradually translate back westward into the desert southwest by early next week. ENS/GEFS mean PWAT values are very high yet Saturday, as monsoonal/subtropical moisture aloft flows northeastward from western Mexico on the northwest periphery of the upper level high. ENS continues to suggest PWAT values greater than 1.8" (which would be exceeding the the 90th percentile). A shortwave is forecast to track northeastward across the area Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely as a cold front sliding southward provides a focus for convective development. Mid and upper flow supports some training/backbuilding potential, which could localize heavy rainfall. The 12/12Z ENS mean QPF Saturday is around 0.3 to 0.5" across the area during the day Saturday. Will have to monitor with such high water content in the atmosphere, as locally heavier amounts will be possible where any training or backbuilding of convection occurs. This seems most likely to occur across southwest into central Nebraska where the front is forecast to be located by late Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, as the southern plains upper high begins to migrate back westward the flow aloft becomes more westerly. At the surface, weak Canadian high pressure builds into the area behind the cold front. PWAT values decrease some as the flow aloft turns more westerly, and appears convection will focus more south of the area across Kansas near the cold front.

As the ridge becomes established across the desert southwest early next week, flow aloft becomes more northwesterly. Although PWAT values decrease some, there will still be sufficient moisture both at the surface and aloft. This appears to be a set up for for at least isolated southeastward tracking convection.

Temperatures will average below normal Saturday into the first of next week. Highs will average in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue across portions of western and north central Nebraska tonight, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions, as well as potential for gusty and erratic winds. Lower stratus is expected to remain in the storms wake, with low end VFR to MVFR conditions the rest of the night into the morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region again throughout the afternoon, with potential for heavy rain. This may bring ceiling and visibility impacts throughout the region, with MVFR to IFR conditions expected to last through most of the day and into the nighttime hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.