textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain expected Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. A few thunderstorms are possible across southwest Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Below normal highs Thursday through Saturday, with a warming trend and dry with a warming trend Sunday through next Wednesday.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 414 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Scattered instability showers since mid afternoon continue across the southeast panhandle and southwest Nebraska. A few of these showers have had small soft hail. A few lightning strikes remain possible. These showers will end early this evening. A northwest wind from 15 to 35 mph continued over the area as well. Temperatures at 4 PM CDT, ranged from 39 at Valentine and Ainsworth to 56 at Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 414 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Tonight, scattered rain showers will linger across southwestern Nebraska early this evening, dissipating with skies becoming mostly clear. Lows fall below freezing, in the mid 20s.

On Thursday, an large upper trough will extend over the Rockies into the Desert Southwest. A lead disturbance in southwest flow aloft over eastern CO and western KS Thursday morning will lift into southwestern areas during the afternoon and bring likely chances for showers. An H3 jet max 100-120KT extending from New Mexico across eastern Nebraska late Thursday afternoon, aiding in upper level divergence across western Nebraska. Some instability exists late Thursday afternoon and evening, for a few embedded thunderstorms in southwest Nebraska.

Models are forecasting PWATS from a half to two-thirds of an inch Thursday evening and overnight. Ensemble mean QPFs from the GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all indicate a half inch to over three quarters of an inch across all of southwest Nebraska north into central portions of north central Nebraska. Deterministic models show even higher amounts, including the 12Z and 18Z HRRR. Due to good model agreement, NBM POPs are likely to categorical (60 to 90 percent) Thursday night. The ECMWF EFI SOT also shows a signal for QPFs centered over southwest Nebraska.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 414 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Friday, an H7 trough axis oriented southwest to northeast will slowly move eastward during the day. Although lift appears weak, light rain showers still likely. High will be quite cool from 40 to 45 with a northeast wind increasing to 10 to 20 mph, especially across the west.

Friday night, the area will be on the backside of the upper trough axis with a lingering chance for showers. Models have trended much drier, so POPs may be lowered in upcoming forecasts.

Saturday, dry with northwest flow aloft, as an upper ridge briefly builds across the western U.S. Breezy northerly winds and continued cool in the mid 40s.

Warmer Sunday, then slightly cooler Monday as an upper trough drop through the Great Lakes region. Then warmer Tuesday and Wednesday, as the upper flow remains quasi-zonal. Looks dry, except for the potential for a shortwave trough passage Tuesday/Wednesday and maybe a chance for showers, with timing differences existing.

Highs should warm into the 60s Tuesday areawide, to the low 70s next Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Winds will be light overnight generally around 5 kts or less. Lingering stratus deck will continue over the next few hours across the northern Sandhills, including KVTN terminal, with MVFR conditions, this is expect to lift in the early morning hours than should see a return to VFR conditions. Winds will generally be out of the east to southeast thorugh the day, around 5 to 10 kts, with gust of 15 to 20 mph across western and southwest Nebraska. Rain will begin to spread into the area, first across the south in the afternoon and eventually work its way northward by late evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.