textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are expected along a slow moving cold front today and tomorrow. Large hail will be possible with these storms, as well as potential for damaging wind gusts.

- With ridging remaining in place across the Intermountain West, precipitation chances will continue Wednesday through Sunday as periodic disturbances track across the region.

- Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 80s. Highs in the 90s will return to southwestern and western Nebraska Friday through Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of north central Nebraska early this morning, generally along and east of Highway 281. These showers and thunderstorms will largely be driven by a low level jet. As the jet weakens around daylight, expecting these showers and thunderstorms will quickly drop off. Not expecting any severe weather with the early morning convection, but with PWAT values remaining above 1.5 inches, could see some heavy rainfall with any overnight showers and thunderstorms.

Throughout the day, a cold front begins to slowly track south across South Dakota, eventually tracking into Nebraska. Ahead of this, strong moisture advection remains across portions of the region, bringing dewpoints in the 60s across western Nebraska and potentially into the 70s across portions of north central Nebraska. The morning through the mid afternoon should remain a mostly quiet period, with generally clear skies. This will allow for a strong build up of instability across the region, with CAM guidance suggesting 2,000-3,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE to build across the region. While the main core of the upper level jet is expected to remain over the Dakotas, still expect around 30 knots of deep layer shear. Storms are expected to initiate along the front, and given the environment, any storm will have the potential to quickly intensify to severe thresholds. With the slower moving front, expecting that large to very large hail will be the main threat, however, there is also a threat for damaging wind gusts, especially in stronger downdrafts. Of course, with the available moisture, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially with slower moving cells. While the bulk of the storm activity is expected to wind down overnight, storms may linger through the overnight hours, though generally expecting the severe threat to remain low overnight.

The cold front is expected to continue its slow track across the region on Tuesday, which may initiate yet another round of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. The location of storms will largely depend on where the cold front stalls out. For now, this appears most likely across southwest Nebraska and portions of north central Nebraska. Forecast soundings suggest a fairly tall CAPE profile and marginal deep layer shear. Combined with the slow moving front, this may set up another threat for large hail Tuesday afternoon, but still cannot rule out a threat for damaging winds. As mentioned, much will depend on the location of the front, as well as how the mesoscale environment evolves through today and tonight's convection.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 308 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A frontal boundary will sag south stalling across the southern panhandle east southeast along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Easterly flow in the low levels will lead to highs in the lower to middle 80s Wednesday. Thunderstorms look to develop Wednesday afternoon across the panhandle and southeastern Wyoming INVOF the front. This activity should track southeast with mid level northwesterly winds. ATTM, the EC, NAM12 and GFS deterministic solns have this favorable forcing over the eastern panhandle and far SW Nebraska. This is also in agreement with the latest NBM forecast. On Thursday, an upper level trough, will enter southwestern Canada suppressing the ridge across the intermountain west and forcing warmer air east onto the high plains. Favorable mid level warm air advection Thursday night and a warm front lifting northeast across the forecast area, will lead to an increased threat for thunderstorms Thursday night. By Friday, the upper level trough will track east and southeast into the Pacific NW. This will flatten the ridge further resulting in westerly mid level winds for Friday into Sunday. This flattening of the ridge will also drive warm air further east into the remainder of the forecast area. By Saturday and Sunday, highs will reach in the upper 80s in the east with lower to middle 90s in the west and southwest. Weak disturbances will cross the central Rockies Friday through Sunday with precipitation chances continuing Friday night and Saturday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over most of the forecast period. There may be brief periods where MVFR or lower conditions may exist as thunderstorms move across the area. Winds will generally be light and variable for most of the 24 hour period, but could see gust of 45 kts or more with with stronger storms. The greatest time period for thunderstorms will generally be in the late afternoon to evening, with the greatest impact on both terminal sites in the evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.