textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to high confidence in a return to precipitation this evening and again on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.

- High confidence in cooler, below normal temperatures through Thursday.

- Moderate confidence in dry conditions as well as a return to above normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Surface high pressure will slowly slide to the east throughout today with a cold front advancing by late afternoon. This will keep temperatures above normal for much of the region today before colder air filters in behind the front. Warm air advection ahead of the front will push 850mb temperatures in the 28 to 31 C into the region allowing for temperatures to rise into the low 90s to low 100s by late afternoon. Clouds will continue to increase as the cold front tracks across the region along with a wind shift from the south to the north by late afternoon. Some stronger winds will also be associated with the frontal passage and with the combination of dry conditions and stronger winds, critical fire conditions will persist across the eastern Panhandle through early evening. See the fire weather section for more details.

For precipitation, this cold front will result in some rain and thunderstorm chances by the evening. Convection initiation timing is still a little uncertain, but current radar imagery shows some light showers already developing across the region indicating the environment is primed and ready. The best potential for thunderstorms will likely occur between 5pm and 7pm, being discrete initially before becoming more scattered in nature. With a narrow ribbon of instability across central Nebraska, there should be enough support for a few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the main threat. Thunderstorms should weaken shortly after sunset and instability wanes. Some lingering stronger storms may be possible across northern Nebraska where better instability and forcing persists through 06Z. All precipitation is anticipated to push out of the region around Midnight CT as high pressure slowly builds back into the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The main weather concern in the long term will be the significantly cooler temperatures for the middle of the week. High temperatures will drop nearly 25 degrees from Monday with low temperatures dropping nearly 20 degrees. With 850 mb temperatures dropping into the 8 to 12 C range, surface highs will struggle to rise much above the mid 70s on Tuesday with lows dropping into the 50s. These temperatures are nearly 15 to 20 degrees below normals (normal high in the upper 80s/low 90s; normal low in the low 60s). These cooler temperatures will be short lived as gradual warming is expected into next weekend. Highs will return to the 90s and low 100s by Sunday. Overnight lows will also slowly increase back into the 60s by Saturday morning.

Another round of thunderstorms return on Tuesday evening as a short wave trough pushes through Nebraska. Current guidance suggests the severe risk is low as limited to no instability will be around to support any organized convection. However, we should still get some good rains as areas generally south of Highway 2 could see up to a half inch or more of QPF.

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will build back into the region mid-week and outside of some lingering isolated showers Wednesday morning,conditions will remain dry through the end of the week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected tonight across western and north central Nebraska. Locally gusty winds can be expected with these this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will become north to northeast at 15-25 kts this evening and gusty. Winds will gradually diminish during the day Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Critical fire weather concerns are expected through this evening as RH values drop and winds remain strong. Humidity will continue to drop over the next few hours before bottoming out in the upper teens by late afternoon. The lowest RH values will generally be across southwest Nebraska into the eastern Panhandle and western Sandhills. A frontal passage is currently tracking across the region resulting in some enhanced winds with gusts up to 45 mph as well as a wind shift from the south to the north by late afternoon. Limited rainfall is expected with this front initially leading to a potential for some dry lightning across southwest Nebraska which may result in increased fire starts. A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for fire zone 204 due to these strong winds, lower RH values, limited rainfall, and fuels that are still partially cured and ready to burn.

Increased moisture due to precipitation chances on tonight and Tuesday night into Wednesday as well as cooler temperatures will keep fire concerns low through mid-week. However, a return to dry and warm conditions will bring a return to elevated to near-critical fire concerns by the end of the week. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for additional fire concerns heading into late this week.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.