textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Low but non-zero chance of precipitation across northeast Nebraska tonight. Little to no precipitation expected this weekend into next week.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Sunday through much of next week, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and some locations potentially exceeding 100 degrees.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Upper level ridging has started to build into across western CONUS trekking eastward and further building into our region by this evening, persisting into next week. While the environment is modestly with the LBF sounding showing about 500 J/KG of CAPE as well as ensemble guidance suggesting a broader region of CAPE up to 1200 - 1300 J/kg spliced across two regions (southwest and northeast Nebraska), there isn't much of a lifting mechanism to tap into this instability. The MCV from this morning has moved further east where confidence of that affecting our region remains low to where PoPs have been kept at under 30 percent to account for this. Any storm that manages to sustain itself and develop inside our CWA is not anticipated to be severe as wind shear remains on the weaker side, topping out at 25 kts.

With the upper level ridging building in over the evening into Saturday, it will be the starting point for conditions to trend warmer and drier. Low level southerly flow will begin to usher warmer temperatures aloft with 850 temps reaching 20 - 25 C on Saturday, with surface highs being near normal in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region. Dewpoints will remain in the mid 50s to low 60s with aided by the southerly flow, keeping humidity marginal at 30 - 50 percent. This will incur moderate heat risk to those who are sensitive to the heat, especially in portions of north central Nebraska. This heat risk will only increase as next week comes along.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Sunday into the middle of next week, model guidance continues to indicate that an upper-level ridge will amplify and strengthen over the central United States. At the surface, low pressure will develop across the central Rockies, establishing southerly flow across the region. Increasing warm air advection will set the stage for gusty south winds and much warmer temperatures. Forecast 500 mb heights are expected to approach 600 dam by early next week. ECMWF ensemble guidance indicates these heights may reach the 99.5th percentile or higher compared to climatology, highlighting the anomalous strength of the upper-level ridge. In addition, 850 mb temperature anomalies are forecast to reach 2 to 5C above normal, with the greatest anomalies focused across the Dakotas and northern Plains. This pattern will support hot and predominantly dry conditions as the stronger upper-level flow remains north of the region. High temperatures will likely climb into the mid to upper 90s across much of the area, with some locations potentially reaching the lower 100s. The greatest potential for temperatures approaching or exceeding 100 degrees currently appears to be across north-central Nebraska, while much of the remainder of the area sees highs in the mid to upper 90s. NBM percentile guidance remains somewhat less aggressive with high temperatures. However, given the strength of the upper-level ridge, anomalously warm temperatures aloft, and continued dry conditions, the warmer GEFS solution appears more representative of the expected pattern at this time. Overall, well above normal temperatures are expected, with overnight lows eventually warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s, especially across north-central Nebraska. Confidence in the magnitude of the heat remains somewhat limited due to continued differences among model guidance. Therefore, heat headlines have been held off for this forecast cycle, though forecast trends will be monitored closely through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as the heat develops.

In terms of precipitation, predominantly dry conditions are expected as the stronger upper-level flow remains north of the region. As mentioned above, gusty conditions are also expected as a tight surface pressure gradient becomes established across the region. From Monday through Thursday, wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph or greater may occur across portions of the area. The combination of hot temperatures, limited precipitation chances, gusty winds, and decreasing relative humidity may result in elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions, especially across the western Sandhills and eastern Panhandle. This period will continue to be monitored over the next several days.

By late next week into next weekend, the upper-level ridge may begin to break down as a trough develops across the northeastern United States, resulting in a transition toward northwest flow aloft across the region. This pattern change could bring temperatures back toward seasonal normals while also providing better opportunities for precipitation. Confidence in the timing and evolution of this transition remains low given the extended forecast range.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. A few mid to high-level clouds are currently moving across southwest Nebraska, including the KLBF terminal, but this cloud cover will gradually clear through the evening. Winds will remain light from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots through the evening and into the overnight hours. By early Saturday morning, winds will briefly shift to the southwest at 5 to 10 knots before becoming southeasterly and strengthening later Saturday morning into the afternoon. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots are expected by late Saturday afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.