textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal chance of thunderstorms this later afternoon and evening

- Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday late afternoon/evening

- Heavy rain potential Saturday into Sunday

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, with large hail appearing to be the primary hazard.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms may continue through much of next week as an active northwest flow pattern persists.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal normals, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s through much of the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances late this afternoon/evening and Saturday late afternoon/evening. For late this afternoon into the evening, do expect the shower activity to continue at least through the remainder of the afternoon. There will be some isolated embedded thunderstorms within the shower activity but do not expect these to grow upscale into a stronger thunderstorm. The main threat would be lightning. As for the chance of thunderstorms closer to the evening hours, confidence remains low in any strong to severe thunderstorm potential across much of the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning that have continued through the afternoon have kept temperatures cooler and have created some stabilization, thus confidence in the severe potential near the advancing front remains low. The front will continue to advance southward before stalling, if a strong to severe storm were to develop ahead of the front, the better environment would be far southwest Nebraska, down towards Chase and Perkins counties and southward where scattered clouds have given way to some sunshine and temps are in the upper 70s to low 80s and shower/thunderstorm activity has remained east of.

For Saturday, forecaster confidence is higher in more scattered to widespread strong to severe thunderstorm activity. Today's frontal boundary that will stall somewhere south of here tonight, will lift northward on Saturday as a warm front. This warm front will stall in the afternoon and this will be the area of focus for severe thunderstorm development. Although the exact location of the warm front still remains uncertain, better confidence is expected that the warm front will settle somewhere across southern Nebraska. The area of the warm front will be the most concern area, especially for supercell development. If initial storm development in the afternoon is more discrete supercells will need to monitor the area of the warm front for potential for tornadic development along with large hail. 0 to 1 km helicity increases in the afternoon around the vicinity of the warm front and continues to remain high through the evening hours.

Southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the area with dewpoints reaching the mid 60s across southern Nebraska by late afternoon. 0 to 6 km shear will be around 50 to 60 kts across southwest Nebraska. MU CAPE across most of western and north central Nebraska will be around 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Beyond the discrete supercell potential there will also be the potential to see an MCS develop further north of the front and a strengthening LLJ in the evening will increase convection as well. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes will be possible. There will also be the secondary threat of heavy rain potential as storms PWATs greater than 1.5" with qpf values around 1 to 2 inches Saturday into Sunday. WPC has issued a slight risk across southwest Nebraska for excessive rainfall and a marginal risk for the rest of western and north central Nebraska. The main challenge that remains for tomorrow is the uncertainty of where the front sets up, but confidence remains high for strong to severe thunderstorm development by late afternoon/evening.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Sunday, deep low-level moisture will remain across the area ahead of another mid-level disturbance moving in from the west. Mid-level frontogenesis combined with differential positive vorticity advection should provide sufficient lift for thunderstorm development across the western and northern Sandhills Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Adequate low-level moisture, moderate instability, and 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear will support organized thunderstorms, with some potentially becoming severe. The SPC Day 3 Outlook highlights portions of southwest Nebraska in a Slight Risk for severe weather, with a broader Marginal Risk extending across much of western and central Nebraska. Currently, hail appears to be the primary threat, as forecast hodographs remain fairly straight and the overall synoptic pattern remains supportive of hail-producing supercells. Damaging winds will also be possible with the stronger storms. The tornado threat appears very low at this time, due to relatively weak low-level wind shear and limited low-level hodograph curvature. This threat will continue to be monitored over the next couple of forecast cycles. High temperatures Sunday will be cooler across the area, ranging from the upper 60s across northern Nebraska to the upper 70s/low 80s across southwest Nebraska. Lows Sunday night will generally remain in the 50s.

Monday, west to northwest flow aloft will persist across the region. This will maintain a cooler pattern, with highs generally in the low to mid 70s. Another weak disturbance may provide sufficient lift for thunderstorms to develop west of the area Monday evening before moving eastward. Severe weather may once again be possible, though confidence remains low given the extended forecast range. Lows Monday night will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area.

Tuesday and beyond, northwest flow aloft will continue across the region as an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes sends periodic disturbances southeastward through late next week. Better precipitation chances on Tuesday may remain south of the area, though some model guidance does show lingering precipitation chances across southwest Nebraska. By midweek, increasing moisture advection and periodic disturbances moving through the northwest flow pattern may provide additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance continue to indicate this potential. Confidence remains low regarding the timing and coverage of any precipitation, but overall the synoptic pattern favors periodic thunderstorm chances through the middle and latter portions of next week. Temperatures are expected to remain in the lower to middle 80s through much of mid to late next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Low stratus and patchy fog is expected to overspread much of western and north central Nebraska early Saturday morning as a warm front lifts into the area. This is expected to lead to widespread MVFR/IFR CIGs and visibilities through much of the day for terminals north of Interstate 80. Gradual improvement back to MVFR/low end VFR is expected for terminals along and south of Interstate 80 tomorrow afternoon.

Winds remain southeasterly tonight and tomorrow, strengthening tomorrow afternoon. Widespread southeasterly gusts of 25 to 35kts can be expected for all terminals tomorrow afternoon and evening. Scattered to widespread thunderstorm formation is also expected by late tomorrow afternoon, leading to periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities and gusty, erratic winds.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.