textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Low confidence in some isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening with a marginal severe risk.

- Moderate confidence in patchy fog across portions of southwest Nebraska early Friday morning.

- Moderate to high confidence in a return to above normal temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Low to moderate confidence in near-daily thunderstorm chances returning Saturday lasting through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Isolated thunderstorm potential is still anticipated across portions of north central Nebraska. While not overly confident in development as there is significant disagreements in the CAMs and ample CIN remains over the region. However, there is a dry line and surface trough across the Panhandle/southwest South Dakota as well as a narrow ribbon of instability across southwest Nebraska and into the Sandhills that would support some isolated convection if initiation can occur. Not entirely certain this will happen, but have introduced some low chance PoPs (30 percent or less) across Cherry county and into the Sandhills to account for the potential. Initiation, should it occur, will be within the next couple of hours (4pm-6pm CT) across Cherry county. Storms will remain fairly discrete initially and have the capability of producing briefly severe hail and gusty winds. Storms will push southeastward into the Sandhills through early evening, becoming more scattered before weakening shortly after sunset by late evening. A dry forecast will then return for Thursday night with lows dropping down to near normal (low 60s).

For tonight...increased low level moisture across south central and into portions of southwest Nebraska combined with light winds and mostly clear skies will create a favorable environment for fog development Friday morning. At this time, anticipating fog to remain patchy with visibilities remaining above 5 miles. The latest probabilities support this as the probability of seeing under 5 miles is near 25 percent for only Custer county. Elsewhere it is less than a 20 percent probability. However, due to the patchy nature of the fog, would not be surprised to still see some visibilities lower than 5 miles across portions of the area, especially in low lying areas or along river valleys. Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions if traveling Friday morning. Due to the light and relatively patchy nature, fog should dissipate by mid morning giving way to a mostly clear and dry forecast for the day on Friday.

Temperatures will continue their warming trend on Friday as well, rising up into the upper 80s (north) to the mid 90s (southwest). Overnight lows tonight will return to near normal in the low 60s for most locations.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

For the extended period... guidance suggests upper level ridging may be weaker than originally anticipated. This will allow for a gradual return to near daily thunderstorm chances beginning on Saturday evening now. There is even a potential on Friday night/early Saturday morning, but currently expecting the strongest storms to remain across the east and north. However, across north central Nebraska, some minimal instability across the region could support some daytime showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. A series of troughs will continue to pivot through through Nebraska and the central Plains allowing for near daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms Wednesday. These storms will be primarily diurnally driven and could intensify overnight as the low level jet increases. At this time the severe risk remains uncertain, but would not be surprised if a stronger storm or two develops with gusty winds being the main threat, although some small hail could be possible in some of the stronger storms.

Otherwise, the only other major concern in the extended period will be the increasing temperatures through Sunday. Highs will generally rise into the mid to upper 90s west of a Brady to Valentine line Saturday and Sunday. To the east of this line, highs are expected to rise into the low 90s. Warm temperatures continue into Monday, although, they won't be quite as high as the weekend as the overall pattern slowly shifts and some cooler air will begin working into northern Nebraska. Expect a range from the upper 80s across north central to the upper 90s in southwest Nebraska on Monday. Temperatures fall back to near or slightly below normals on Tuesday and Wednesday ranging from the low 80s in north central to the low 90s in southwest Nebraska.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms will develop across the Sandhills late afternoon and into the evening hours. Uncertainty persists regarding locations of development as well as development at all. If storms can develop, KVTN could see some gusty and erratic winds as well as some small hail. At this time, have kept the majority of storms just to the south of the terminal with only a VCTS mention. Further to the south, some patchy fog will develop across south central and into southwest Nebraska resulting in some minor visibility reductions at KLBF early Friday morning. Fog dissipates by mid- morning giving way to a return to VFR across the region.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.