textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Early morning showers and thunderstorms are possible across mainly southwest and central Nebraska, but severe weather is not expected.

- Temperatures recover to above normal values by Thursday with a return to the 80s/90s, increasing further to 90s/near 100F this weekend.

- Better chances for precipitation arrive Sunday night, Monday Night and Tuesday mainly over northern Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Early this morning, surface high pressure continues to slowly slip east/southeast across the area. Winds remain largely variable as a result. Satellite imagery shows gradually clearing skies from northwest to southeast across the Sandhills. This should bode favorable for a fairly cool night across the area as dew point readings range from the the lower 40s to middle 50s. Early Tuesday statistical guidance hinted at fairly expansive coverage of low temperatures in the 40s. The MET solution even suggested a few locations making a run at the upper 30s in our far western Sandhills. Outside of the sheltered areas, expected values to hold in the middle 40s to lower 50s for most and perhaps the upper 40s for some in the prototypical cold spots.

For Wednesday/Wednesday Night...an approaching shortwave disturbance will cross the Central Plains in the early morning. Modest advection associated with the main h7 trough should lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms prior to dawn. Modest instability with MUCAPE values approaching 1000 j/kg should support a few thunderstorms. While shear is fairly strong at about 40 knots 0-6km BWD, the limited instability should preclude a broader strong thunderstorm threat. That said, can't rule out a few instances of small hail mainly for portions of southwest Nebraska. The SPC keeps a Marginal Risk severe weather outlook for areas well to the east and this aligns with where stronger instability is expected to develop. Consecutive runs of the HRRR shows fairly similar evolutions of activity: initial development by 3-4am CDT with scattered coverage along and east of Highway 83 south of the Platte Valley and more isolated coverage further west towards Colorado. Showers and thunderstorms may percolate through mid and late morning before departing to the east. The exit of morning activity should leave the remainder of Wednesday dry. Forecast soundings depict an erosion of clouds by the afternoon for most locations and given the late summer insolation, expect temperatures to rebound easily. As a result, afternoon highs were boosted with upper 70s to middle 80s across the area. Even with this increase, forecast highs remain below normal for August. As high pressure continues to shift east, a low-level jet will develop across the higher terrain. Focus will remain north across the Dakotas so dry conditions will persist and overnight lows will remain fairly unaffected. This should allow values to return closer to seasonable normals, generally in the middle 50s across the area.

Thursday...deep troughing will settle over central Canada as upper- ridging builds across the Four Corners region. This will lead to enhanced flow cross the Central Plains as upper level heights build in. While a surface boundary will settle south towards the Panhandle into western South Dakota, the subsidence aloft will likely curtail most if not all precipitation potential through the day. Forecast soundings show lingering capping around h75 with MLCIN values exceeding 100 j/kg. With limited low-level convergence, it's appearing likely that the daytime should remain dry. Where this surface boundary sets up will have fairly large implications on afternoon highs. Drier, downsloping air is expected to the west of this and should yield middle to upper 90s highs while southerly moist flow beneath cooler h85 temperatures should hold these areas into the 80s. Winds will be gusty out of the south with h85 flow around 20-25 knots. This may promote gusts around 25 to 30 mph. Within a broad warm sector with dew points in the 60s, the strong winds will be offset by increased mugginess and should temper fire weather concerns as a result.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The threat for thunderstorms will linger across northern Nebraska, at least through the evening hours. Overnight, ridging aloft will slowly build northeast of the Four Corners as the northern stream pattern de- amplifies. Warmer air will push into southwestern Nebraska Friday with the heat ridge building east into most of the forecast area on Saturday. Looking at the NBM probabilities for highs > 100 degrees for North Platte Friday through Monday, the probabilities of exceedance have come down somewhat from last night's forecast (on the order of 10 to 20%). No surprise, the latest NBM has highs peaking just under 100 degrees in SW Nebraska on Saturday and Sunday. In light of the deterministic GFS and statistical MEX guidance which is warmer with highs Saturday and Sunday well above 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday (105 and 104 respectively for North Platte), and the EC guidance which has 92 and 97 for highs, feel the NBM forecast is a good compromise as it meets these two guidance members in the middle. That being said, with readings approaching 100 degrees Saturday and Sunday, will continue to message heat potential. By late Sunday, a northern stream shortwave will traverse southern Canada. This feature will attempt to force a frontal boundary into South Dakota and possibly far northern Nebraska. The forecast initialized with some slight chance pops over northern and central Nebraska Sunday night and this seems reasonable given the potential for the front to lie over northern Nebraska. However, forecast confidence in pcpn over central and southern areas is not high ATTM. Better chances for precipitation will arrive on Monday with better model agreement on the front being anchored over northern Nebraska. On Tuesday, an upper level low will drop south from western Hudson Bay into western Ontario. This will force the frontal boundary further south bringing cooler temperatures to northern Nebraska Tuesday. This will also bring a better chance for precipitation to the forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 709 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect mainly cloudy skies this morning with broken ceilings around 4000 FT AGL. Skies will then scatter out after 17z with ceilings increasing to around 8000 FT AGL. Skies will then clear out this evening. For the KVTN terminal: Expect scattered to broken ceilings ranging from 10000 to 20000 FT AGL through late morning. Skies will then clear out after 17z Wednesday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.