textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances tonight into Monday morning

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns on Wednesday with drier and warmer conditions and gusty winds

- Precipitation chances mid-week into the end of the week/weekend

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Surface high pressure will track south of the forecast area through Kansas this morning. Westerly winds will develop on the back side of the exiting high later this morning persisting into the afternoon hours. Winds will be generally light across the western half of the forecast area today with stronger winds expected over the northeastern forecast area. A warmer airmass will build into the forecast area today in advance of an approaching back door cold front. Highs this afternoon will reach the middle to upper 60s across the forecast area. Minimum RH this afternoon will reach 15 to 20 percent across southwestern Nebraska. Winds will be fairly light this afternoon over areas where near critical RH is located. Even with the stronger winds over northeastern areas, minimum RH in the 25 to 30 percent range will preclude any critical fire danger conditions. Tonight, a shortwave trough will drop south into Minnesota. This will force a backdoor cold front through the forecast area overnight. Behind the frontal passage overnight into Monday morning, increasing post frontal, mid- level frontogenesis will increase from central South Dakota into northeastern and eastern Nebraska. This will lead to an increased threat for precipitation overnight tonight into Monday morning. Given forecast timing of best lift, precipitation will fall as light snow. As for QPF and snow amounts, the latest NBM ensembles indicate very low probabilities (10 to 20%) of QPF > 0.05" during the 12 hr period from 06z to 18z Monday. That being said, will keep pops low- ie. slight chance as little to no QPF is expected. Mid level forcing will weaken Monday afternoon, ending the threat for precipitation. However, with easterly winds behind the backdoor front and expected cloud cover, highs will struggle to get out of the 40s in northern Nebraska Monday. Further south, some breaks in cloud cover are expected toward SW Nebraska. This will allow highs to reach into the middle 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Southerly winds will increase on Tuesday with gusty winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. There may be an elevated concern for fire weather on Tuesday afternoon, however at this time moisture advection should keep min RH above 25 percent, and the strongest winds will be across the northern portion of the forecast area and not overlapping the lowest RH across southwest Nebraska. Upper level ridge begins to break down into mid- week. An upper level low will pass north across the northern plains on Wednesday with a trailing cold front. Uncertainty still remains on the timing of the cold front passage through the area, there is about a 6 hour discrepancy in the models and the timing of the frontal passage will be very important in regards to fire weather concerns and temperatures. At the moment fire weather concerns look to have a brief period of elevated to near critical generally across southwest Nebraska where temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s and min RH will be in the upper teens to 20s. However if the front slows and the front passage is later could see compressional heating out ahead of the front and will see warmer temperatures and the potential for lower min RH, leading to greater fire wx concerns, will need to continue to monitor the system.

Precipitation chances will increase Wednesday evening into Thursday. At this time the mode of precipitation generally looks like rain showers, with the greatest potential for thunderstorm chances east of the forecast area into central and eastern Nebraska. As temperatures cool behind the front there may be a chance for a rain/snow mix in the overnight hours across portions of western and north central Nebraska. Although temperatures will be cooler on Thursday after the cold front passage, they will still be near normal for this time of year with highs in the 50s, thus if there is any snow accumulations, they should not hang around long and any rain/snow mix will only be in the overnight hours when the temperatures will be in the 20s to low 30s, then precipitation should change back to all rain by Thursday afternoon.

To end the week and into the weekend, the pattern at this time looks to be a little more active and could see precipitation chances persist into the weekend. Temperatures should remain mild with highs in the 50s to 60s through Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1126 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and variable through the morning hours then be light out of the west during the day with winds generally around 5 kts. Winds will then shift to the east to northeast this evening, remaining light around 5 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.