textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow tracking upper-level low will promote light rain across mainly the Sandhills east through North Central Nebraska today where total rain may approach a quarter of an inch in spots.

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for much of the day Tuesday across northern Nebraska as strong winds 50-60 mph develop behind a passing cold front.

- The extended forecast continues to focus on the potential for snow to impact post-Thanksgiving travel, but confidence in precise details remains low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 402 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

This morning, satellite analysis shows a mature mid-level low slowly shifting east across western Kansas. On the northern periphery, much colder cloud tops show an area of strong lift colocated with the deformation band. This area of stronger ascent is helping drive a narrow band of heavier precipitation. Rates have generally remained at or below 0.10" per hour and don't foresee any reason to stray from this. Temperatures along and south of this precipitation band were holding in the low to middle 40s, plenty warm for all rain. Further north, removed from the active rain, temperatures were much colder where light northerly winds were observed with values in the middle 20s to middle 30s.

Today...the upper-level low to the south will slowly track west to east across central Kansas. As this happens, low pressure aloft will slowly weaken and similarly, convergence on the northern periphery will quickly weaken. This should allow light rain to persist through daybreak but wane through the daytime. Leaned heavily on HREF guidance will a further nudge to evening HRRR runs for PoPs which paints 50-70% across the eastern Sandhills and North Central Nebraska falling rapidly to < 20% by early afternoon. Made little adjustments to inherited temperatures, only shifting the narrow belt of cooler values owing to lingering precipitation. Overall though, values remain in the low to middle 50s, or roughly 5 to 15F above normal for late November.

Tonight/Tuesday...High Wind Watches (HW.A) have been issued for northern Nebraska beginning tonight and lasting through much of Tuesday. A low-amplitude shortwave will cross the Northern Rockies through the day, ejecting onto the Plains of South Dakota by late tonight. This should promote weak low-pressure development over eastern Montana. A sharpening cold front will subsequently dive south, reinforced by moderately strong high pressure settling out of western Canada. This will will promote strong CAA with rapid pressure rises. An abrupt wind shift with strong gusts will herald this front's arrival. Can't rule out gusts nearing 50-60 mph with this initial surge of wind, however, gusts should peak during the daytime strong cold advection continues. On the southern periphery of the upper-level low, flow in the lower levels will strengthen as height fields compress invof an approaching h85 trough axis. NBM guidance paints 70%+ probabilities of exceeding 48 knot gusts along the Nebraska/South Dakota border and BUFKIT soundings show unidirectional flow within a well-mixed boundary layer early in the day. Within this mixed layer, speeds range from 40-50 knots with NAM/GFS solutions both depicting fairly similar outputs. Did opt to begin the HW.A early to account for the frontal passage and any gusts that may accompany that, however, significant wind gusts are rare in the pre-dawn hours. Nevertheless, even if initial gusts fall short confidence is higher during the late morning and early afternoon hours for seeing 50 knot (~60 mph) gusts. Pressure rises will slow during the late afternoon and as the h85 trough begins to shift east across South Dakota, flow in the lower levels should weaken in response and allow the high wind threat to subside. Even with the cold air filling in, temperatures should range from near to slightly below normal values in the middle 30s to lower 40s.

Tuesday night...moderately strong high pressure will continue to move in from the northwest. This will allow winds to drop off and lead to a fairly calm and cool night. Westerly flow should continue and this will allow for some cold air drainage in the low-lying areas. Even considering this, expecting fairly expansive cold temperatures with forecast lows falling into the lower teens in the west to near 20F in the east. These values are near to slightly below normal for late November.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 402 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Wednesday/Thanksgiving...mid-level disturbance glancing by to the north will deepen over the Great Lakes. Northwesterly flow will develop behind this feature and prevail across the Plains into Intermountain West as a result. With increasing heights and lack of any appreciable disturbance embedded within the flow, dry weather is likely to start the holiday travel period. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than seasonable norms with highs ranging from the middle 30s to middle 40s northeast to southwest. Overall, little to no impacts to travel are expected during this timeframe.

Friday into the weekend...Attention quickly turns to the post- holiday weekend with possible travel impacts due to wintry weather across at least portions of the region. Ridging upstream will quickly breakdown as a shortwave approaches the Pacific Northwest by late in the day Thursday. This feature will phase back into the flow with evolution and progression somewhat in question during the late week. While deterministic solutions continue to show large variations in the upper-level pattern, ensembles continue to paint a northwest to southeast oriented band of precipitation deliver a glancing blow to our northern and particularly northeastern zones Friday into Saturday. A quick look at thermal profiles supports an all-snow event though QPF remains fairly light. This likely explains the latest WPC outlook which removes much of our northern zones from any outlook for wintry weather on Day 6 (Day 7 previously). EPS/GEFS show only middling (~40-50%) probabilities of exceeding 0.10" for the Friday/Saturday timeframe. Ensemble means suggest the threat for accumulating snow does exist, however, so folks with travel plans should continue to monitor the forecast. This is especially true for anyone going north to the Dakotas where heavier QPF and thus heavier snow is expected. Temperatures will bottom out this weekend where ECWMF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) paints slight negative anomalies for MaxTs. The going forecast calls for daytime highs to fall into the 30s and eventually the 20s to end the month with values below the 10th percentile in climatology for both LBF/VTN on Sunday.

Monday and beyond...a convoluted upper-level pattern casts some doubts on precise details for early next week. Overall, the upper pattern appears to remain active though a split-flow regime could keep things fairly quiet locally. NBM temperature spreads grow significantly with inner-quartile ranges quickly reaching 15 then 20F for Monday and Tuesday respectively. Even so, 25th percentile values show moderation towards the middle of next week suggesting our fall to well below-normal values for the holiday weekend should be short-lived.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

An expanse of stratus continues to track north across southwest Nebraska this evening, along with light rain showers. Conditions are beginning to decrease from VFR to MVFR across southwest Nebraska, and expect that IFR conditions will be reached in the next few hours, largely driven by lower ceilings. Latest forecast guidance has continued to mix in drier air, lessening precipitation expanse, as well as limiting fog potential. Still believe that recent rainfall and light winds will allow for some patchy fog development, especially across southwest Nebraska. By late morning conditions are expected to return to MVFR, with VFR conditions by the afternoon across southwest Nebraska. Further to the north, drier air will limit precipitation and low ceiling potential, with VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for NEZ004>010-023>029-094.