textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain showers and sprinkles remain possible through the evening, especially across southwest Nebraska. Beyond tonight, temperatures return to above average with a dry forecast the next few days.

- A low pressure system tracking across the Plains brings our next best chances for rain, and potentially thunderstorms Thursday evening into early Friday morning.

- Moderate confidence in the track of a late week storm system, along with the potential for accumulating snowfall, mostly across northwest Nebraska.

- High confidence in above normal temperatures late weekend through early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

An upper level low is observed over central Colorado this afternoon, which will continue to track east-southeast throughout the day. With this upper level system, a surface low is observed across northeast Nebraska, as well as a stationary front along the Front Range. This has been the catalyst for some light rain showers and sprinkles across portions of western and southwestern Nebraska, however this has brought very little in measureable rainfall. As observed in the 18z sounding from LBF, there is some moisture aloft, but any precipitation will have to fall through a fairly dry low layer. This will likely lead to some virga throughout the afternoon, but cannot completely rule out a few lighter showers and some sprinkles this evening into the overnight, especially across southwest Nebraska. If some better moistening occurs in the lowest layers, there is some potential for some very light rain showers, but again, very little for actual rainfall is expected.

The forecast remains dry for Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, with temperatures again returning to well above average across the region. In fact, the current forecast highs both days are roughly 15 to 20 degrees above average for this time of year. Interestingly, NBM deterministic guidance remains at or below the 10th percentile of temperature spreads, so have once again trended the forecast highs back towards the 50th percentile. With how daily highs have been performing recently, there may still be some need to increase these further, which would bring highs into the upper 60s to mid 70s by Thursday afternoon.

On Thursday afternoon, an upper level trough is expected to track across the desert southwest, which is expected to intensify a low pressure system in the lee of the Rocky Mountains. This system is expected to track across the Plains, bringing our next best precipitation chances to the region. The earliest onset of precipitation is expected late Thursday afternoon into the evening, which will fall as rain. In fact, guidance suggests some instability across the region, which could bring thunderstorms across portions of the region. Currently thinking the best chances for thunderstorms remains across central and eastern Nebraska, however, some portions of north central Nebraska could hear a few rumbles of thunder Thursday night. Best chances for this would generally be in eastern Custer, Garfield, Wheeler, and eastern Holt counties. Also worth mentioning that with this set up, the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting a portion of the forecast region, mostly along and east of Highway 183 with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with hail expected as the main threat. Will continue to monitor the forecast trends as we approach Thursday evening, as some of the more fine scale features begin to reveal their hand.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A cold front will move through the area Friday, ushering in cooler temperatures. Highs on Friday will range from the lows 40s in northwest Nebraska to upper 50s across the eastern portions of the forecast area, generally southeast of a line from Broken Bow to Butte. Behind the front, an increasing chance for rain/snow mix transitioning to snow is expected Friday afternoon into Friday night as colder air filters southward behind the deepening surface low, mainly across northwest Nebraska. Recent guidance has trended more southeast as models strengthen the surface high pressure to the north along with pushing mid level heights and better forcing south. This could result in a better chance of accumulating snow, mainly west to northwest of US-83. Regardless, the system remains progressive, with precipitation exiting the area by midnight Saturday. Some lingering light snow may persist across the northern Sandhills into early Saturday morning. There is still uncertainty with this scenario and trends will continue to be monitored in future forecast cycles.

Precipitation comes to an end Saturday morning, followed by a return to drier and warmer conditions through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. As upper-level ridging expands and amplifies over the region, along with strengthening warm air advection, expect highs on Saturday to reach the mid 50s to 60s, with the warming trend continuing into early next week. Highs in the low to mid 60s appear likely on Monday, with the better potential for widespread upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday.

With the continued dryness and the return of above normal temperatures, fire weather concerns may increase once again early next week, particularly on days characterized by low relative humidity and gusty winds. This will continue to be monitored in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The fog has started to dissipate from both terminals KLBF and KVTN. There is a chance of light rain showers in southwest Nebraska this afternoon but is not expected to affect CIGS/conditions. Winds will remain light out of the north northwest, becoming light and variable into the evening and overnight hours. Come early tomorrow morning, winds will shift southwesterly and a possibility of fog returning for south central Nebraska, although remaining east of both terminals.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.