textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely today in fire zone 204 and a red flag warning is in effect.

- Winds will be gusty from the south today and gusty from the north on Saturday

- Cooler temperatures are expected behind a strong cold front Saturday and Sunday, with highs mainly in the upper 60s and 70s.

- A warming trend returns by midweek, with highs climbing back into the 80s and lower 90s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Dry conditions continue through today as high pressure slowly slides to the east by late afternoon. Some marginal instability across portions of central and eastern Nebraska will result in an environment favorable for some nighttime convection on Friday night. While not expecting severe storms, some isolated showers or thunderstorms could develop east of US-83 after Midnight and will be capable of producing some hail and stronger winds. Any showers and storms will push east of the region by sunrise Saturday morning.

Dry conditions will then persist through Saturday night as zonal flow sets up over the central US and high pressure gradually returns to the region. Cold air advection behind the departing trough the previous night will bring a return to 850 mb temperatures in the 9 to 15 C range into north central Nebraska. This will keep highs on the cooler side of guidance (5 to 10 degrees below normal) with forecasted temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the Pine Ridge to the upper 70s south of I-80. A few locations across far southwest Nebraska may rise into the low 80s on Saturday, but not expecting most locations to rise out of the 70s on Saturday.

Continued CAA into the region into Saturday night will keep overnight lows nearly 5 to 10 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. Currently expecting temperatures to drop into the low to mid 40s Saturday night for most location, with the Pine Ridge potentially dropping into the upper 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Persistent low pressure over Ontario and southern portions of Hudson Bay, will allow northwesterly flow aloft to persist for most of next week. With moisture locked off to the south of the forecast area, precipitation chances Sunday through Thursday look downright abysmal at best. The only minor "threat" for precipitation appears on Wednesday/Wednesday night over northeastern areas. This is in association with a strong shortwave trough which rotates on the southwestern periphery of the main low over Ontario. The latest NBM ensembles only paint a 20% chance for QPF>0.01" Wednesday/Wednesday night over the northeastern forecast area so pops are limited to slight chances at best. The NBM is in line with the latest GEFS ensemble forecast which only has a 10 to 20 % chance of QPF>0.01" ending Thursday morning. The EC ensembles are a little more "optimistic" on its precipitation chances Wednesday night, noting a 20 to 30% chance of QPF>0.01". That being said, feel the NBM forecast is on track keeping pops at slight chances for WEdnesday/Wednesday night. Beyond Thursday, there are some hints in the mid range deterministic solutions of more of a zonal low amplitude pattern commencing across the central CONUS. With this shift, low level moisture will have a better chance of working north into the forecast area bringing an increased threat for precipitation Friday and beyond next week. As for temperatures, readings will begin to climb back into the 80s and lower 90s Tuesday. ATTM, the warmest day in the extended appears to be Wednesday in advance of a backdoor cold front and shortwave Wednesday night (mentioned above). With the dry and warmer conditions expected next week, fire weather concerns will increase and will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Expect mainly clear skies across western and north central Nebraska over the next 24 hours with a few to scattered high clouds possible around 25000 FT AGL. Southerly winds will increase this morning at both terminals, gusting up to 30 KTS this afternoon. Southerly winds will diminish this evening at the KLBF terminal reaching around 10 KTS overnight. At the KVTN terminal, winds will shift to the west late this afternoon, then northwest, then north overnight. Wind speeds will range from 10 to 15 KTS during the early to mid evening hours, diminishing to under 10 KTS overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Gusty southwesterly and westerly winds are likely later this morning into the afternoon hours. With highs reaching around 90 this afternoon and minimum RH reaching 10 to 20 percent across the area, near critical or critical fire weather conditions appear likely today generally west of highway 83. Over zone 204 recent contact with fire partners indicates fuels are still ready to burn under ideal conditions. In zone 204 this afternoon, minimum RH will reach 10 to 15 percent with frequent afternoon wind gusts between 35 and 45 MPH. A red flag warning is in effect this afternoon for fire zone 204 from 10 AM to 6 PM MDT. A cold front will pass through western and north central Nebraska tonight, bringing cooler temperatures for the weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s with upper 60s to lower 70s for Sunday. This will lead to minimum RH of 25 to 35 percent both days alleviating fire weather concerns this weekend. Temperatures will rise back into the 80s and 90s for Tuesday through Thursday leading to increased fire weather concerns across the forecast area. Precipitation chances over the next 7 days appear limited across the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204.