textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation potential increases late tonight into early Tuesday (25-45%) with light rain transitioning to a wintry mix favoring north central Nebraska.

- A frontal boundary arriving Wednesday will bring blustery north winds during the day and low-end chances for thunderstorms in the evening for areas south of Highway 92.

- Greater rain chances (40-60%) arrive late week as deeper troughing settles into the Great Basin and southerly flow ahead of this feature draws in richer moisture.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

This afternoon, high level clouds continue to stream in off the central Rockies. More persistent low clouds were crossing central South Dakota and moving over far north central Nebraska. This was occurring in an area of strong mid-level fgen/warm air advection (WAA) centered around h7. Afternoon observations have shown little to no measurable precipitation and forecast soundings paint a good picture as to why with ample dry air in the lowest 1km and another pocket of reasonably dry air around 2-3km. This is unlikely to fill in much and with waning lift, little to no precipitation is expected through the remainder of the afternoon. Temperatures have varied from lower 50s in the southwest under partly sunny skies to lower 40s in the northeast under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds have remained steady out of the east-northeast with gusts around 20-25 mph.

For tonight...modest height falls with an approaching subtle shortwave will provide renewed lift and returning chances for light precipitation across portions of the area. WAA will support an expansive cloud shield with some precipitation potential limited by dry air lingering at the surface. Based on easterly flow, slight increases in low-level moisture, and the expected cloud cover, forecast lows were boosted closer to the more mild MAV solution. This puts values closer to 30F. Veering h85 winds will support slight increases in temperatures and introduction of a modest warm nose. This combined with moderately steep lapse rates will promote snow and potentially a wintry mix as the warm nose may not sufficiently melt the hydrometeor before refreezing near the surface. Liquid equivalent moisture appears to be fairly limited outside of north central and eastern Nebraska where the greatest persistent forcing should be. HREF probability-matched mean output shows only a few hundredths across the Sandhills increasing to 0.10" or greater to the east. Overall thinking is for less than 1" of snow/sleet accumulation anywhere but caution is advised for folks traveling Tuesday morning as even these light amounts could lead to slick spots.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...southerly flow should redevelop across the High Plains and support increasing WAA. Even so, forecast highs were decreased slightly and closely match values from Monday. The reason for this was lingering clouds and even light precipitation potential across much of the area but particularly north central Nebraska. HREF shows 30-60% potential for measurable moisture through midday and a slow departure of low cloud cover east of Highway 83. The afternoon temperature forecast utilized a heavy blend of MET/NAM/HRRR guidance which produced extensive upper 40s and 50s with lower 40s for far north central Nebraska and values nearing 60F across our far south and far west. South winds will be steady with stronger gusts across the Sandhills around 25-35 mph. The southerly flow will last into Tuesday night and help promote a very mild night. Low temperatures appear likely to remain above the freezing mark and may manage to hold onto the lower 40s for a few locations.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Wednesday...Deep troughing will cross the Northern Plains by early Wednesday, An attendant cool front will settle south into the area and lead to gusty north winds through the day. The lack of any cold air source should keep temperatures on the milder side with forecast highs into the 60s to near 70F. Later in the evening, as the front stalls near the Nebraska/Kansas border, surging southerly flow with a rich Gulf tap should support increasing thunderstorm potential. Placement of the frontal boundary will determine how far north any threat is realized and recent guidance has shown a southward trend in this. Steep lapse rates will be in place across southwest Nebraska through the Panhandle and should support at least modest elevated instability. Will maintain a mention of thunder for portions of southwest and south central Nebraska to match the localized introduction of a Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) but the threat for anything strong to severe appears quite low (< 5%).

Thursday through early next week...zonal flow will develop as troughing translates east along the US/Canadian border beyond midweek. Deeper troughing will again arrive onto the West Coast by Friday with southwesterly flow arriving by late in the day and expanding across much of the central and southern Plains. This will coincide with continued mild temperatures and increasing moisture advection. NAEFS guidance suggests Integrated WV Transport exceeds the 90th percentile by late Friday and increases further to around the 99th percentile by midday Saturday. A few rounds of rain and thunderstorms appear probable: Thursday night into Friday, Saturday through Saturday night, and again Sunday night into Monday. Unfortunately, all of these appear likely to be glancing blows with focus across eastern Nebraska. This is easily apparent when viewing the EPS which keeps potential for exceeding 0.10" in any 24-hour period to less than 20% anywhere in the local area. Meanwhile, the GEFS is much more bullish with westward extent. Until these differences can be resolved, with suggest low confidence in precise details for now. With the steady southerly low-level flow, potential for precipitation falling as anything other than rain appears quite low. In fact, NBM probabilities of snow, freezing rain, and/or sleet are nil so it appears that the threat for wintry impacts is zero at this point. Temperatures show a slight bump on Sunday with a return to upper 70s to near 80F followed by another slight cooldown for early next week. Either way, the average for the timeframe favors above normal temperatures and this should persist into mid-April.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Broken to overcast ceilings will remain mainly VFR at both terminals through 10z overnight. Ceilings will then fall to 1500 to 2500 FT AGL there after and persist through late morning. Skies will then scatter out Tuesday afternoon with ceilings remaining around 2500 FT AGL. Isolated snow showers are possible tonight mainly over the Sandhills and are expected to impact areas to the north of North Platte and south of Valentine.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.