textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible during the late afternoon and evening hours across the region, with large hail and damaging wind gusts remaining the primary threat.

- A brief reprieve from precipitation arrives on Sunday, with quiet weather and seasonal temperatures expected.

- Daily rain and thunderstorm chances return Monday and continue through much of the following week for much of western Nebraska but the threat for severe weather is uncertain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

An upper level high pressure remains over the southeastern United States, with an upper level shortwave expected to track across the Dakotas today. Behind the upper level shortwave, a jet maximum is expected across the northwest, riding along the US-Canada border. With this upper level flow in place, a surface low will push further to the east, tracking across Iowa, with a cold front trailing behind. Throughout the day, the cold front is expected to track across the region, bringing a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected across the region. Afternoon highs reach around seasonal again, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This should allow for modest CAPE development across the region, on the order of 2,000-3,000 J/kg. Expecting less deep layer shear, with less supportive upper level flow, however around 30 knots of shear should support a threat for discrete convection to develop ahead of the cold front during the afternoon hours. With cells initially expected to develop as supercells, expecting the initial threat to be for large hail, though strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with some of the stronger downdrafts. CAM guidance struggles with the evolution of convection, with weaker shear available. While some guidance suggests discrete convection to continue, there is also some support for cells to congeal into a line later in the evening. While a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) remains in place for western and southwestern Nebraska, there is some potential for stronger cells to remain outside of the current outlook, especially across the Sandhills. Regardless of the outlook, make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and weather updates throughout the day, especially if you have outdoor plans. Given the more nebulous storm environment, the forecast may change, especially concerning timing and location of storm development.

With the current forecast, expecting that most showers and thunderstorms will track out of the region late in the evening, likely around 10 PM CDT. Clouds are expected to linger behind the exiting showers, especially across southwest Nebraska, but otherwise, pleasant conditions are expected once showers track east. Winds are expected to be light and variable behind the showers, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Upper level ridging begins to build across the region on Sunday, ushering in quieter weather. Highs are expected to remain around seasonal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For reference, highs for early July across western Nebraska are right around 89 degrees, and current forecast highs are within a few degrees of those typical highs. With ridging building, no precipitation is expected Sunday. However, with better mixing across western Nebraska, could see some breezy conditions across the Panhandle into the western Sandhills, with southeasterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph Sunday afternoon. Winds are expected to remain southerly overnight, keeping overnight lows in the lower 60s. However, typical lows are also right around 60 degrees for early July, so this is again near average.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Broad upper ridging will develop over the southern Rockies with much of the Plains on the eastern periphery of high pressure aloft. Thermal ridging across the Great Basin will spill over the Continental Divide and support warmer temperatures through the extended forecast. Daytime highs will favor 80s and lower 90s, with a few slightly warmer days sprinkled in. Overall, highs will be near to slightly above normal for early July. Flow aloft will relax as the upper-level jet shifts north along the US/Canadian border. Though daily thunderstorms will be possible as rich low-level moisture climbs up to the Front Range, the lack of greater shear casts doubt on seeing a widespread organized severe episode. Pattern recognition supports the daily thunderstorm potential, favoring our western zones, with decreasing PoPs with eastward extent later into the evening. This will likely be the norm outside of Tuesday where a more pronounced shortwave and associated low-level jet may help sustain convection later into the evening. This should favor the Dakotas though and it's this area that the NBM paints a more bullish outlook for rain. By late week, temperatures show a modest upward trend with NBM median values reaching the middle to upper 90s for much of the area. This matches NWP output showing building heights aloft upstream with ample downsloping winds within slightly stronger mid-level flow. Will need to closely monitor this potential in the coming days though at quick glance, greater surface dew points remains east of the area and this should limit if not preclude greater heat concerns at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside impacts for convection later on. Do believe activity should remain south of Valentine so omitted mention at this time. Further south, activity should develop around KTIF and shift south towards KOGA/KLBF by late afternoon/early evening. Any impacts should be short lived with a return to VFR conditions quickly afterwards. Do believe convection impacts may approach IFR conditions for select areas but confidence in this occurring at LBF is too low to mention at this time.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.