textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase late tonight though Wednesday, especially across the Sandhills.

- Cooler Wednesday, especially across portions of north central Nebraska, where highs may struggle to reach the lower 70s.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday into Friday, with locally heavy rainfall possible due to anomalously high moisture across the region.

- Hot and predominantly dry conditions are expected to return this weekend, with highs climbing into the upper 90s to lower 100s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

An expansive area of upper level high pressure remains anchored across Colorado. The center will slowly drift to the southeast into the Southern Plains through Wednesday night. This will allow for increasing sub-tropical moisture to move northward through the Rockies and then turn eastward across the Plains on the northern side of the upper high. An embedded wave within the flow will enhance lift across the area late tonight into Wednesday. Models and ensembles continue to advertise a swath of decent (potentially locally heavy) rainfall across portions of the Sandhills. This is roughly centered along Highway 2. ECMWF ENS PWATS are impressive before the onset of any rainfall, generally around 1.4", area wide. That corresponds well with the observed 18Z sounding at North Platte with a measured 1.36", which is above the 90th %tile for this date. As lift increases with the approaching wave tonight, showers with embedded thunder should blossom from west to east across the Sandhills. This precipitation shield peaks during the morning hours then wanes during the afternoon. Amounts greater than 1" will be possible in spots, again most likely along the Highway 2 corridor.

Another disturbance and rainfall is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. This could focus a bit farther south than the first round, but also give the Highway 2 corridor area additional rainfall.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 329 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday, a weak mid-level disturbance will move across the area, providing increasing warm air advection (WAA), frontogenesis, and differential cyclonic vorticity advection (DCVA) sufficient to support widespread showers and thunderstorms through much of the morning. Severe weather is not expected with this activity given weak deep-layer shear. However, moisture across the region will remain quite impressive, with recent model guidance continuing to depict precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding 1.5 inches. These values are near the 95th percentile to near the climatological maximum for this time of year, highlighting just how anomalous the atmospheric moisture will be. Forecast soundings also indicate deep moisture profiles supportive of efficient rainfall processes and locally heavy rainfall. Wherever the primary band of showers and thunderstorms ultimately develops, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Current NBM guidance depicts the highest probabilities of rainfall exceeding one-half inch across portions of central Nebraska. There remains considerable uncertainty regarding where the heaviest rainfall axis will ultimately set up, and some adjustments to its placement are expected given the forecast remains two days out. Forecast trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. High temperatures Thursday will range from the middle 70s across central and north-central Nebraska to the lower and middle 80s across western and southwest Nebraska.

Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as additional lift spreads northward into southern Nebraska, potentially bringing another period of precipitation to portions of central Nebraska Friday morning. Once again, moisture profiles will remain quite favorable for efficient rainfall processes and locally heavy rainfall. Confidence in the exact placement and timing of precipitation remains modest at this range, and forecast trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. Temperatures will begin to moderate, with highs in the middle 80s across central Nebraska and the upper 80s to lower 90s across the remainder of western and north-central Nebraska.

Saturday and beyond, the upper-level ridge centered across the southwestern United States is expected to strengthen and expand northward across the central Plains, with forecast 500-mb heights approaching 597 dam by Saturday afternoon. In response, 850-mb temperatures are forecast to increase into the 25 to 30C range. Given sufficient daytime mixing, these temperatures would support widespread afternoon highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s across much of the forecast area. This pattern is expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast period, favoring hot and predominantly dry conditions as the primary storm track shifts north of the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions should rule the area through this afternoon and into this evening across western and north central Nebraska. Thereafter, showers are expected to develop across the Sandhills into north central Nebraska, with potential areas of MVFR expected Wednesday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.