textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible Monday

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening

- Light precipitation is expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence in amounts and placement remains low.

- armer and drier conditions return late week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

There will be a weak "cold" front that moves south out of SD tonight into the Sandhills. Will see slightly cooler temperatures on Sunday across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska with temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Areas south of interstate 80 will be warmer with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. Decided to keep some low end PoPs in the forecast, mainly across the northern Sandhills, although confidence is low, a few CAMs continue to signal light shower activity along the boundary, thus could not ultimately dismiss and go with a dry forecast. Kept PoPs under 30 percent due to the low confidence in shower activity.

As for Monday, there will be a subtle ridge breakdown and could see the potential for come elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns as well. Min RH will drop into the teens across portions of western and southwest Nebraska by Monday afternoon. Winds will increase by afternoon, with a sharp north turn with a frontal passage. Did trend wind speeds up slightly by blending with the 90th percentile as winds should increase behind the cold front. Wind speeds around 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will be expected. There will be some lift near the frontal boundary with increasing chances for rain showers in the afternoon. At this time, there will also be a low end chance for a few isolated thunderstorms as the front moves southward into a slightly more favorable environment with some weak instability. This will generally be along and south of a line from Bartlett to North Platte to Oshkosh and southward. Although humidity will be low in the afternoon, thus the elevated to near-critial fire weather potential, this will generally be a brief period before late afternoon. Moisture will return to the area by late afternoon/evening, so even though there will be a chance for thunderstorm potential, do not expect dry lightning to be an issue, as there should be enough of a "wetting" rain with any thunderstorm development, qpf values of a couple hundreths of an inch to a tenth will be possible. Temperatures will cool down with the frontal passage and will see temperatures near freezing across the northwest Sandhills where there could be a brief period of a rain/snow mix Monday night, mainly near the SD/NE border in the NW Sandhills.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Tuesday, a southern stream system will move into the southwestern United States. Ahead of this system, moisture advection will increase, along with an area of mid-level frontogenesis developing Tuesday morning. This will support a broad area of precipitation across western and southern portions of the forecast area. Current NBM guidance suggests light precipitation amounts, with the 50th percentile ranging from 0.10 to 0.25 inches and the 75th percentile up to 0.30 inches. Probabilities of exceeding 0.10 inches range from 50 to 80 percent, highest across the west. Overall, precipitation is expected to remain light, with higher amounts across southwest Nebraska. Highs Tuesday will be below normal, ranging from the upper 40s west to mid 50s east.

Wednesday, the system will eject east of the region, leading to increasing synoptic lift. This will bring another round of precipitation Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Confidence in amounts remains low, as model guidance differs on the placement of the strongest forcing. The GEFS favors a more southern track across Kansas, resulting in lighter precipitation locally, while the EPS suggests a stronger and more westward northern stream component, supporting an area of heavier precipitation across the region. At this time, the GEFS solution seems more plausible given the strength of the forecast mid-level cold air advection. Lows on Wednesday morning will be near freezing, leading to a chance of a light rain/snow mix or a brief changeover to snow, especially west of Highway 83. This will continued to be monitored over the next couple of days. Highs will remain below normal in the low to mid 50s due to cloud cover and precipitation.

Thursday into the weekend, upper-level ridging will build into the region, bringing a return to drier and warmer conditions. Highs Thursday through Saturday will range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows Thursday morning will fall below freezing, with lows Friday and Saturday in the upper 30s to low 40s. Fire weather concerns may increase Thursday into Friday as minimum relative humidity values fall to around 20 percent and winds increase. While recent rainfall may limit this threat, drying fuels will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Skies will remain mostly clear. Winds will be out of the southwest to west today, around 5 to 15 kts and gust up to 20 kts. Winds will switch to the south this evening across the southern Sandhills into southwest Nebraska, around 5 kts. Then winds will switch to the north early Sunday morning with light winds around 5 kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.