textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A marginal risk for severe storms (Level 1 of 5), exists tonight and again on Sunday for portions of western and north central Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are the main severe threats.

- Thunderstorm chances will continue Monday into Tuesday. At this time, the severe threat appears low, however, a strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out especially on Monday

- Temperatures will be above normal this upcoming week with daily highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- There will be a continued threat for thunderstorms beyond Tuesday, however, coverage will be isolated at best.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

H5 pattern across the CONUS this morning was highlighted by high pressure over eastern New Mexico. Compared to 24 hours ago, ridging north of this high was lower amplitude and only extended into south central Canada. East of the ridge, low pressure was anchored over southern portions of Hudson Bay. Low amplitude troughing existed south of the low and extended to the New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. West of the ridge, a tandem of upper level lows were noted. One over northeastern Alberta and a second over western portions of Washington State. The latter feature will influence our weather over the next couple of days. West- southwesterly flow extended from the central and northern plains to the west coast. Within this flow a couple of decent shortwaves were noted this morning. One over northern Utah and a second over northeastern Arizona. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure extended from northeastern Wyoming into south central South Dakota. South of the South Dakota low, a surface trough extended south into the Nebraska Sandhills and southwestern Nebraska. Winds west of the trough were southwesterly and westerly, while east of the trough winds were more southerly. Skies were partly cloudy this afternoon and 2 PM temperatures ranged from 89 at Broken Bow and Gordon to 94 at North Platte.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The latest CAMS, as well as the NAM12 soln, develop convection INVOF the Cheyenne Ridge around 21z Saturday. Activity will be high based, especially over the panhandle and western forecast area where dew points are currently in the lower to middle 50s. The 18z RAOB from LBF indicates a "paper thin" moist layer this afternoon with a dry inverted V type sounding so this threat for strong winds will extend further east beyond highway 83. As for precipitation chances tonight, looking at the latest CAMS and the NBM ensemble probabilities, the greatest threat appears to be generally west of a line from Grant to Valentine with the highest pops in the northwestern Sandhills and the eastern Panhandle. The NBM initialized forecast did have likely pops in these areas. For the pop forecast, utilized the threshold for exceedance of 0.05" QPF for pops. The reasoning for this is the expected high based nature of storms this evening will limit precipitation reaching the ground and the belief was that the exceedance probabilities on 0.01" were too great. That being said, limited pops to 20-40% tonight. Temperatures will remain fairly mild tonight with overnight lows in the 60s with readings around 70 in the eastern forecast area. The upper level low over western Washington (mentioned above), will track along the Montana/Canadian border Sunday into Sunday evening. Across Nebraska Sunday, a surface trough will become oriented from SW into Northeast Nebraska. West of this feature, westerly and northwesterly surface winds will push drier air into central and eastern sections of the forecast area Sunday. This drier air, coupled with a decent surge of warm H85 temperatures from the southwest, will lead to highs in the low to middle 90s across the entire forecast area Sunday afternoon. Some readings may approach 100 degrees in Hayes and Frontier Counties. With the upper level low well north of the forecast area Sunday afternoon, the latest NAM12 is indicating a strong cap across the FA tomorrow afternoon. This cap does weaken somewhat over the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming and the front range of colorado. ATTM, believe any chances for thunderstorms in the forecast area will hold off until the arrival of a cold front late Sunday night. This feature will push into northwestern Nebraska by 12z Monday. ATTM, the forecast initiated with the highest pops in SW Nebraska with lesser chances over southern portions of the panhandle. ATTM, believe we may need to add some pops over NW Nebraska late Sunday night INVOF the approaching cold front. For now, will leave the NBM initialized forecast as is and advise the oncoming shift to be aware of this forecast "wrinkle".

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The before mentioned cold front will drift south into northern Kansas Monday, before lifting north as a warm front Monday night. Cooler temps are expected for Monday with highs in the 80s to near 90 in SW Nebraska. After dry conditions Monday, the threat for precipitation will increase Monday evening as the northerly moving warm front interacts with a decent mid level disturbance lifting northeast from Colorado. The upper level pattern will shift somewhat midweek as a trough of low pressure approaches the west coast. This will force upper level high pressure east into the Ohio Valley. Resultant low amplitude west southwest mid level flow and a surface front, meandering across the forecast area, will lead to a continued threat for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will retrograde west into the four corners Friday into Saturday. Ridging will extend north into the northern Rockies, further limiting precipitation chances Friday into Saturday. Highs will be in the 90s Friday with upper 80s and lower 90s for Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Ongoing convection across western Nebraska bringing varying impacts to local terminals. Primary concern will be gusty winds, with mention at both sites to account for decaying thunderstorms moving in. Some observations have suggested blowing dust west of VTN and confidence in seeing this arrive to the terminal remains low so will omit mention. Beyond convection this evening, expect lingering clouds but CIGs likely remaining at or above 5kft will allow VFR conditions to continue through the bulk of the daytime Sunday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.