textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms persist this afternoon and evening across much of western and north central Nebraska.

- Precipitation gradually ends into Thursday, with drier conditions returning into the weekend.

- Temperatures warm this weekend, with a return of upper 70s to low 80s by Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Currently, stratiform showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are gradually pivoting northeast through the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. This precipitation will continue to move northeast with time this morning, with a brief dry period expected for areas south of I-80.

By this afternoon, a surface low will eject northeastward through central Nebraska, with showers and thunderstorms pivoting across northern Nebraska to the north and west of this low. Near the HWY 20 corridor, at least scattered showers and storms should persist through much of the day. Instability will be at a premium to the north of the surface low, and should limit thunderstorm coverage across northern Nebraska. Further south, a more interesting evolution is expected. As the upper low begins to eject eastward and overhead by this afternoon, a dry slot will begin to translate across the area. Just ahead of the encroaching surface low, steepening lapse rates will lead to increasing instability across portions of central Nebraska. As the surface low ejects across the area this afternoon, scattered low top thunderstorm development is possible across portions of the Sandhills and central Nebraska. Though low confidence for now, cannot rule out a stronger low-topped storm or two this afternoon should enough instability overspread a modestly sheared environment. Trends will need to be monitored for this threat across the area this afternoon. Temperatures range from the low 60s for western Nebraska, where cloudy and rainy conditions persist, to the middle 70s in portions of central Nebraska where a few breaks in the clouds are expected this afternoon.

The surface low begins to slowly depart into eastern Nebraska and western Iowa by late Thursday afternoon. This will shunt any lingering precipitation to the east through the afternoon, with drier conditions expected by tomorrow evening. Much like today, persistent clouds will keep highs limited to the 60s for much of western and north central Nebraska tomorrow.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

The upper low finally begins to exit by Friday morning, shunting precipitation off to the east of the area. Weak warm advection returns by afternoon and highs finally climb back into the 70s. Heights rise aloft into Saturday, as shortwave ridging begins to translate overhead. A weak shortwave passes off to the north of the area through Saturday afternoon, with surface cyclogenesis across the lee of the northern Rockies. This brings strengthening southerly flow, and boosts high temperatures back into the upper 70s to low 80s. Yet another shortwave then quickly drops through the Dakotas on Sunday, with an associated surface low ejecting across the Canadian Prairies. This drags a weak cold front through the area Sunday afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are possible ahead of this front, though confidence in this remains low for now. The next system of note approaches the area early next week, as yet another upper low drops out of the Intermountain West into the northern Plains by Monday night. Solutions diverge with respect to track and strength of this low, and confidence in additional precipitation remains low for now.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Showers and thunderstorms persist this afternoon and evening across much of western and north central Nebraska, leading to periods of MVFR visibilities. In addition, low stratus persists into this afternoon for all terminals, leading to MVFR/IFR CIGs. Gradual improvement back to low-end VFR is expected for terminals south of Highway 2 this evening, with lowered categories persisting to the north through tomorrow morning.

A frontal boundary near the HWY 183 corridor leads to variable wind direction across the area. East of HWY 183, winds remain southerly this afternoon, at 5 to 10kts. To the west, northwest winds are expected at 10 to 15kts this afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.