textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon in the western Sandhills and eastern Nebraska Panhandle and red flag warnings are in effect this afternoon through mid- evening.

- Warm and predominately dry conditions are expected for most locations through Friday which will lead to increased fire weather concerns.

- Moisture return, coupled with more favorable mid level flow, will lead to increased precipitation chances for the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A mostly dry forecast is expected through Tuesday night as high pressure remains overhead. The exception will be some light isolated showers across southwest Nebraska through early Monday morning. There is also some hi-res models suggesting some light precipitation again on Tuesday afternoon across north central Nebraska. In both cases, confidence is very low in development. If showers can develop, QPF will be minimal and severe weather is not expected. Still, with confidence low in these two precip periods, not much more than a mention here is warranted at this time.

Cold air advection will push in 850 mb temperatures in the 8 to 11 C range into north central Nebraska through this morning. This will keep lows tonight well below normals with many locations dropping into the low 40s. Some places across the Pine Ridge and in the higher elevation of northwest Nebraska could even see some upper 30s. While not expecting widespread frost, with clearing skies and calm winds through sunrise this morning, some patchy frost may be possible in some areas. Temperatures will quickly rise after sunrise as a warmer airmass pushes into the region for the beginning of the week.

Strong upper level ridging across the western US will keep high pressure and a mostly dry forecast over the region through Tuesday night. This ridging will allow for warm air advection to return bringing highs in the low to mid 80s on Monday and into the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday. After a chilly start to the week, overnight lows will return to the upper 40s to low 50s for Monday night before returning into the 60s for Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A cold front will sweep across the forecast area late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This frontal timing has trended faster with the past 24 hours of model solutions. That being said, decided to lower highs slightly for Wednesday from the initialized NBM forecast, to bring them more in line with the 00z MET and MAV statistical guidance. Behind the frontal passage Wednesday, strong northwesterly winds are expected with gust potential up to 45+ MPH over the Sandhills and north central Nebraska Wednesday afternoon. The latest NBM ensembles have a 50 to 80% chance of wind gusts eclipsing 45 MPH Wednesday afternoon. There is an 80 to 100% chance of wind gusts eclipsing 25 MPH Wednesday afternoon across the entire forecast area. The combination of gusty winds and low RH Wednesday afternoon may lead to critical fire weather conditions across the area. More on that below in the fire weather section. By Wednesday night, a strong shortwave, rotating around the periphery of closed low pressure over northern Ontario, will dive southeast across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota and Iowa. This will force a reinforcing shot of cooler air into the forecast area Wednesday night. With low level moisture forced south of the area by the initial FROPA early Wednesday, little to no precipitation is expected with the best chances northeast of the forecast area. This is in light of previous forecasts which had some slight chance pops over far northeastern portions of the forecast area. Behind the secondary front Thursday, cooler highs ranging from the middle 70s in the north to lower 80s in the south are forecast. The broad area of low pressure aloft over eastern Canada will weaken and slowly transition east beginning Friday. This will allow warmer air to push into western and north central Nebraska Friday. The warmer air will be most pronounced in SW Nebraska where highs may reach into the lower 90s. Highs over north central Nebraska will reach into the middle to upper 80s. With the breakdown in northwesterly flow aloft, as the eastern Canadian low weakens and transitions east, low pressure will develop over eastern Colorado Friday night into Saturday. This will lead to increased southerly flow and low level moisture return to the region by Saturday. This will result in increased precipitation chances across the area as the more westerly mid level flow will allow disturbances to approach from the west. We could also see an uptick in severe potential for the weekend, and this scenario will become clearer as we approach the end of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Breezy winds will develop over the next few hours and persist through the evening, with northwest to westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 30 knots across the area. Winds will gradually diminish this evening into the overnight hours, with west to northwest winds around 5 knots expected by late tonight. Some broken mid to upper level cloud cover will move across the area this afternoon and evening into the overnight period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue to appear likely this afternoon across zone 204. A broad swath of 15 to 20% minimum RH will reside north of a line from Ogallala to Bassett. Wind gust potential up to 35 MPH still looks probable over the western Sandhills and eastern Panhandle this afternoon and the red flag warning will be continued.

Minimum RH on Tuesday afternoon will range from 15 to 20 percent over zone 204, wind gust potential Tuesday afternoon is right on the cusp for critical fire weather conditions. This is also supported by the NBM ensembles which has 80% chance or exceedance of 25 MPH wind gusts. After coordinating with CYS, it was decided to hoist a fire weather watch for Tuesday afternoon for zone 204.

With very dry post frontal air pushing into the region behind the front Wednesday, near critical to critical fire weather conditions are possible for a large portion of the forecast area. Once again contingent on fuel status, zone 204 seems likely to exceed critical fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be strong Wednesday afternoon with good gust potential to 45+ MPH over the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Conditions will be cooler on Thursday and winds lighter so the threat critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon is not as clear cut. Winds will shift around to the south Friday increasing minimum RH's to 20 to 30 percent across the area. However, wind gusts potential above 25 MPH looks good across west central into southwestern Nebraska and will lead to elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon in these areas.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NEZ204.