textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns are expected today due to warm and very dry conditions.

- Warm, very dry, and gusty conditions tomorrow may lead to near critical to critical fire weather concerns across all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Near critical or critical fire weather concerns appear possible Wednesday. This will be dependent on how much low- level moisture/humidity returns northward from the Gulf ahead of a strong low pressure system.

- At least some chance for a strong or perhaps severe storm later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- Critical fire weather concerns look likely for Thursday as gusty west to northwest winds develop along with low humidity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Currently, temperatures range from the upper 20s near the Pine Ridge to the lower 40s in southwest Nebraska under clear skies. Winds are light and variable. Lows this morning will fall into the middle 20s to low 30s across the area, as surface high pressure remains in place across eastern Nebraska through sunrise.

By late this morning, surface high pressure migrates off to the southeast, with a backdoor cold front then pushing southeast into the Sandhills this afternoon. This boundary will bisect the area today, leading to a range in expected high temperatures. The coolest highs will reside across north central Nebraska, where highs remain in the upper 50s behind the aforementioned backdoor front. For southwest Nebraska ahead of the front, highs return to the lower 70s today. Much like yesterday, very dry air remains in place and will promote very low humidity ranging from the upper single digits in southwest Nebraska to the lower to middle 20s across north central Nebraska. Luckily, a reprieve from the gusty winds are expected today, with weaker flow aloft and moderately strong surface high pressure nearby. This will keep fire concerns lesser, though elevated to near critical concerns are still expected this afternoon due to the very dry conditions.

As the aforementioned surface high exits off to the east into the Ohio Valley, southerly flow returns to the area tonight. This is further reinforced by deepening surface low pressure over northeastern Wyoming by sunrise Monday. The boost in warm advection will keep overnight lows more mild in the 30s, and will lead to much warmer temperatures for all Monday afternoon. In fact, highs look to return to the upper 70s to lower 80s across the entire area. Unfortunately, this will set the stage for another day of near critical to critical fire weather concerns. As deep diurnal mixing is achieved Monday afternoon, humidity bottoms out as low as the upper single digits to teens across all of western and north central Nebraska. This will also promote increasing southwesterly wind gusts, mainly near and north of I-80. This combination of warm, very dry, and gusty will lead to increased fire concerns, and fire headlines may eventually be needed for much of the Sandhills and northern Nebraska.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Upper level ridging builds northward once again Tuesday, with the axis centered over the western High Plains. It will be a very warm day with low humidity. There isn't much of a surface pressure gradient, and winds appear to remain on the lighter side which should limit the overall fire weather concerns.

An upper level trough approaches the area from the west Wednesday, as the upper level ridge axis shifts eastward over the Mississippi Valley region. Surface low pressure will deepen in response to the approaching trough across eastern Colorado/Wyoming. In fact, most ensemble members support a deep low center down to around 990mb. This is in line with the operational ECMWF which has a 989mb center and the GFS 985mb. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient from east to west and bring strong southerly/southeasterly winds to the area. A very warm day once again with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Appears to be another potential set-up for fire weather concerns. However, low- level moisture/humidity will be on the increase from the Gulf, with dew points climbing into the lower and middle 50s by afternoon. This higher humidity could limit the critical fire weather threat.

Attention then turns to thunderstorm potential later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Surface instability will increase along the Highway 83 corridor and just to the east where higher surface dew points appear to be maximized. A rather narrow corridor, with the dry line and lower dew points to the west, and to the east, the moisture/humidity appears more shallow with dew points mixing into the upper 40s. Both operational runs of the 19/00Z GFS and ECMWF initiate convection near Highway 83 across western Nebraska by late afternoon when the capping inversion is weakest. This activity then tracks eastward Wednesday evening. Some question as to how far east, as the capping inversion quickly strengthens during the evening. Nevertheless, hodographs support a window for a potential supercell or two initiating off the dryline. Sounding profiles would be supportive of hail, and potentially even a brief tornado threat during the evening as the low-level jet increases. This will highly depend on the location of the better moisture axis and the capping inversion.

The deep surface low will quickly track into the Dakotas Thursday, with a return to strong west/northwest winds and low humidity. Appears Thursday will likely see near if not critical fire weather conditions develop once again. Friday will see a cool down, but still appears it will be dry (low humidity) and breezy.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 657 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through today. Skies should mainly be clear, with the exception of a few middle and high level this morning across northern Nebraska. Winds should remain light at 10 kts or less through tonight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.