textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chances for light rain showers and possibly a thunderstorm across northwest Nebraska tonight, though no severe weather is expected.

- Rain chances increase late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Rain could be heavy at times, as the first push of tropical moisture arrives across the region.

- Rain is expected to persist Tuesday through Wednesday night, eventually tracking out by Thursday morning. This second push of tropical moisture may lead to locally heavy rainfall, especially across southwest and central Nebraska.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An active weather pattern develops over the next several days, as moisture from ongoing tropical systems in the Pacific is advected across the region. A weak upper level ridge is still observed across the region, with a deep upper level trough continuing to dig along the Pacific Coast. Water vapor satellite imagery shows the moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Odalys beginning to track northeast in the upper level flow. Given the expected progression of the trough, expecting that this push of moisture will track across western Nebraska some time tomorrow, allowing for a very moist environment.

This evening, showers and potentially a thunderstorm may develop along a surface boundary currently across northwest Nebraska. With strong southeasterly advection prevailing today, expect this front will eventually lift to the north, bringing the main bulk of any precipitation chances into South Dakota. Depending on the timing, though, there is a chance for some light rain showers across portions of northwest Nebraska, mainly near Pine Ridge. Given the marginal shear aloft and fairly stable environment, do not expect any severe weather, if a thunderstorm were to develop. Along with this potential, winds are expected to increase out of the south and southeast tonight. This increase in winds should help to limit fog developing overnight, even though the environment remains very humid.

Monday, the moisture from remnants of Odalys are expected to arrive in the region. This surge of tropical moisture will contribute to fairly high PWATs across the region. With the expected location of the surface low, this should place most of the region firmly in the warm sector, with the moisture advection continuing through the day. This will also allow for gusty southerly winds throughout the day, with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. Though in the warm sector, temperatures remain near seasonal, with high in the low to mid 70s, with dewpoints remaining in the 60s. By the late afternoon, a cold front begins to track east, which should provide the forcing for showers and thunderstorms to develop. This round of moisture is expected mostly for areas north of Interstate 80, and may bring some wetting rainfall across most of western Nebraska, the Sandhills, and north central Nebraska. Guidance suggests that this round of rainfall could bring one quarter to one half inch across the region, with locally heavier amounts possible. If thunderstorms can initiate along the boundary and persist overnight, this could certainly spell a potential for locally heavy rain amounts, especially along and north of Highway 2.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Rain chances continue to Tuesday through Wednesday night, with locally heavy rainfall expected, especially across southwest and central Nebraska. Throughout Monday, Hurricane Polo will continue on its northeast track, gradually weakening as it encounters the southern jet stream. As the trough in the southern jet continues tracking east, it will begin to siphon moisture from Polo tracking it across the Plains. This will provide the second push of deep, tropical moisture across the Plains. However, there does remain some slight uncertainty in how far north and west this plume of moisture tracks. The European solution remains just a bit quicker than the GFS, which impacts the western extent of the moisture plume. However, there is strong consensus on this tracking across the Plains, bringing heavy rainfall. For our area specifically, confidence is highest along and south of a Grant to Broken Bow line. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest a strong possibility for heavier rainfall in the area as well. Latest ensemble guidance brings a 50 to 70 percent chance of total rainfall exceeding one inch across southwest Nebraska, with some locations even reaching an 80 percent chance of exceedance. Ensembles also show now a 30 to 50 percent chance of total rainfall exceeding 2 inches, with the European ensembles on the higher end of probabilities. Further building confidence in this is the latest EFI/SoT, indicating anomalous rainfall totals across southwest into northeast Nebraska. With this growing confidence in heavy rainfall, WPC has expanded the Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall into portions of southwest and central Nebraska, with a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall roughly along and south of an Ogallala to O'Neill line. All this to say, we could see some very heavy rainfall and potentially some localized flooding mid week. Will continue to keep an eye on these forecast trends; however, as seen over the last few days, confidence continues to build in heavy rainfall this week. Make sure to stay weather aware!

Thursday into the weekend, the upper low slowly tracks east, remaining south of the region. This is expected to pull in some cooler air from Canada, which is trending us towards a cooler end of the week. Highs now are expected to remain in the 60s, which is slightly cooler than our normal highs around 71 to 72 degrees for early October. This cooler push may bring our overnight lows closer to seasonal however, as lows Thursday night onward are now expected to drop into the mid to upper 40s. This does remain slightly above our normal lows for early October, as we normally see lows around 41 to 43 degrees. However, this will be cooler than our recent stretch of lows in the 50s. Those with outdoor plants or animals may want to take precaution as we continue to cool off heading into October.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Stratus remains in place across portions of northern Nebraska into portions of north central and central Nebraska, keeping MVFR to IFR ceilings. Across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, some clearing will allow for VFR conditions this afternoon. By the evening, expecting stratus to expand across the region again, bringing a return of IFR ceilings. Winds are expected to remain more steady overnight out of the southeast to south, which may limit the concern for fog redevelopment. Winds are expected to steadily increase throughout the night across western Nebraska, with gusty conditions arriving at KLBF and KVTN by mid morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.