textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms are likely through much of the day Wednesday, with strong to severe activity possible during the late afternoon and evening across western Nebraska.

- More expansive rain and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, but the threat for severe weather is more conditional due to a marginal background environment.

- High confidence in thunderstorm potential Friday before drier conditions return for the weekend.

- Moderate confidence in a return to normal or above normal temperatures for the weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Wednesday Morning...thunderstorms will plague the forecast for much of the calendar day with a reprieve from activity possible around midday. Early this morning, a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Sandhills up through southeast South Dakota is serving as the dividing line between a warm sector with middle to upper 60s dew points and values closer to the middle 50s to the north. The former of these values has allowed from moderate to strong instability to remain in place across much of southwest Nebraska with Tuesday evening RAOB data showing 2000 j/kg SBCAPE and short-term guidance only showing minor modifications through the overnight, mainly in the form of transitioning MU parcels becoming rooted off the surface. Still though, modest low-level jet with weak theta-e advection should support thunderstorm activity across southwest Nebraska. Early morning activity may be capable of isolated severe hail and perhaps a few instances of damaging wind gusts. The training of slow moving storms should allow for locally heavy rainfall to occur. HREF ensemble max output shows fairly expansive 0.50"+ QPF for areas along and south of the Platte Valley in southwest Nebraska. While this may be slightly overdone, localized areas of 0.25" certainly appears plausible through daybreak. Especially in the event that lagging outflow from southeastward diving storms interacts with the frontal boundary further to the north and allows for persistent redevelopment. This is hinted at by a few late evening HRRR runs but confidence remains limited so will need to monitor this potential.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...early morning activity should subside through the late morning. This lines up with decreasing advection into the frontal boundary with a weakening low-level jet. The degree of airmass recovery from late morning through early afternoon will have large implications for the threat for severe weather later in the day. The Storm Prediction Center introduced an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for the Panhandle into northeast Colorado. This outlook only clips Deuel and Garden Counties with a larger buffer of Slight Risk (level 2) for areas southwest of a Chadron to Hyannis to Maywood line. Aloft, the pattern looks conducive: a strong mid-level jet will support strong deep-layer shear as mean westerly flow advects a modest EML into the area with steep lapse rates. The lingering question is if we see temperatures in the lower 70s or lower 80s. Cooler temperatures should suggest a capping inversion that may be too much to overcome as forcing remains somewhat nebulous locally. Warmer temperatures though should suggest more surface based convection potential with any lingering outflow boundaries (density boundaries) from morning convection serving as the focus for new development. Overall, HREF probabilities for exceeding 75F generally reach 60%+ for much of western and central Nebraska save for the western Sandhills. This generally aligns with the NAM12 solution and paints moderate instability across southwest Nebraska as a result. This matches latest SPC outlook and so believe that after a lull around midday that new development in late afternoon and evening will again pose the threat for strong to severe weather. Primary concerns will be damaging wind gusts though isolated severe hail will also be possible. Another developing LLJ later in the day should help sustain convection well into the evening with a severe threat persisting. On top of that, rich moisture fetch into convection should lead to a threat for heavy rain over some of the same areas that say reasonable rainfall from Tuesday and early Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center covers this threat well with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall generally southwest of an Alliance to McCook line. While widespread flash flooding does not appear likely, isolated issues will be possible so folks are advised caution. Modest high pressure will clear southwest South Dakota and drive a frontal boundary south late. With renewed convergence along this boundary from the aforementioned LLJ, scattered to widespread thunderstorms will likely linger through the overnight. While the severe threat will likely be decreasing by then, the heavy rain threat will persist. HREF probabilities of seeing > 1.00" QPF overnight Wednesday into Thursday is fairly high at 50-70% along the same delineation as mentioned above. A look at deterministic solutions shows pockets of even heavier rainfall so this threat will need close monitoring over the next 24 hours.

Thursday/Thursday Night...frontal boundary will sag further south and stall near the Platte Valley by early Thursday. As southerly flow resumes by late morning, this feature will again lift north towards the Sandhills. This will allow for broad warm air advection to overspread much of western Nebraska and lead to persistent rain and thunderstorm chances through the day. Temperatures will vary locally, with persistent clouds beneath prolonged precipitation likely holding highs into the low to middle 60s for at least portions of the Sandhills. Further south behind the lifting front, temperatures should climb more and more closely match Wednesday's values in the middle 70s. Where this temperature gradient sets up will play a large role not only in precise afternoon highs but also where any threat for strong to severe thunderstorms sets up. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) and given the lack of stronger deep-layer shear and instability, am in agreement with this. While not a prototypical heavy rain set up, antecent rains with more heavy rain over similar areas may exacerbate wet soils and lead to increased concerns. The Weather Prediction Center keeps a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) excessive rainfall outlook across the area and believe this is adequate for now until confidence improves on precise locations and rainfall magnitudes. Rainfall potential should wane into the evening and overnight hours. Overnight lows have trended up slightly given lingering clouds and increased low- level moisture but current forecast values remain near to slightly below normal for late June.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Active weather continues through the end of this week before quieter weather arrives for the weekend. One last disturbance will slide through the region on Friday bringing widespread thunderstorms to much of the Panhandle and into north central Nebraska. As with the previous week, some of these storms have the potential to be severe especially in the late afternoon and evening where ample instability will exist across the region. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats with these storms. Temperatures begin to warm on Friday, but still remain below normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Upper level ridging returns to the central US by the weekend bringing a return to drier conditions. In addition, the ridging will also allow temperatures to begin to moderate back to near or slightly above normal (mid 80s). Warm air advection with 850mb temperatures in the 20 to 28 C range will result in surface highs to return to the mid to upper 80s on Saturday with highs remaining in this range through early next week.

As the ridge begins to breakdown by early next week, isolated precipitation chances return to the region. While not expecting widespread severe thunderstorms at this time, some stronger storms will be entirely possible, especially in the evening hours.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east and south over the next few hours. Some storms may be strong to briefly severe with strong winds being the main threat. These showers will continue through the wee morning hours, pushing out of the region shortly before sunrise. Conditions will remain dry through the afternoon before another round of thunderstorms arrive by Wednesday evening. At this time, impacts will be mainly confined to southwest Nebraska including KLBF.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.