textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence in dry conditions and warm, potentially record- breaking, temperatures through the weekend and into early next week.

- Moderate confidence in elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday and near-critical conditions on Monday.

- Moderate confidence in cooler temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week along with a return to precipitation chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 303 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Strong upper level ridging will persist across the region keeping conditions dry through early next week. This high will also allow for continued warm air advection into the region. Current model guidance suggests 850mb temperatures in the 10 to 16 C range through Monday which will allow for surface highs to easily rise into the 60s. A slightly warmer surge of warmer air on Monday could even raise highs into the low to mid 70s. Current record highs sit at 74, 70, 69, and 72 at North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow, and Imperial respectively. Looking at the latest probabilities there is a nearly 90 percent probability that areas south of a Ogallala to North Platte to Broken Bow line will rise to 70 degrees or higher. Looking at the probability of hitting 75 degrees or higher these same locations have nearly a 50 percent chance. Based on this, wouldn't be surprised to see forecasted highs on Monday rise a few more degrees across southwest Nebraska. If this happens, there is high confidence that some if not all of these records will be broken on Monday as the latest model temperature trends continue to rise higher than guidance.

The warm and dry conditions will lead to increased fire weather concerns as well through Monday. On Sunday, RH values in the 20 to 25 percent range are anticipated with winds around 10 to 15 mph keeping the region in elevated to near-critical. Near-critical to critical fire conditions return on Monday due to low RH down to near 15 percent. Overall wind gusts on Monday afternoon will remain under 25 mph, but some stronger winds across the eastern Panhandle are expected. Similar to today (Saturday), the greatest concerns will be across southwest Nebraska and into the Panhandle. Beyond this afternoon, have held off on any additional fire headlines at this time, but they may be needed on Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 303 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The next potential for precipitation returns on Tuesday through the end of the week as a series of disturbances impacts Nebraska. Near daily rain or snow chances are expected Tuesday through the end of the week. While none of the systems appear to be big precipitation makers, each one does have the potential to bring at least a little moisture to the region. With temperatures above freezing during the day and below freezing at night, precipitation type is still a little uncertain. Generally expecting snow during the nighttime hours with rain during the day, and a rain/snow mix as precipitation transitions. At this time, accumulations remain uncertain, but with the overall light coverage in precipitation, wouldn't expect too much in the way of snow accumulations at this time. In addition, there is also a very low potential for some freezing rain towards the end of the week. Confidence is low in this, though, so won't focus too much on it besides mentioning it here. As boundary layer temperatures become more certain over the next few days, we'll get a better handle on precipitation type.

For temperatures, highs will drop back into the mid 40s to low 50s through the end of next week with lows in the low to mid 20s. Will continue to monitor the temperature forecast over the next few days as it will greatly affect the precipitation type and any resulting snow accumulations.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska tonight through Sunday. Winds will be light from the northwest at 5-10 kts tonight and west-northwest 5-15 kts during the day Sunday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ204-210.