textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms tonight and again Monday and Monday night. Damaging wind gusts are the main severe threats both days. There is also a threat for large hail Monday afternoon/evening.

- Precipitation chances become limited after Tuesday night.

- With the forecast area being under the influence of an upper level ridge, above normal temps are expected over the next 7 days.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

H5 pattern this morning had an elongated area of high pressure which extended from western Texas into the Tennesse Valley. The center of this high was located along the Oklahoma/Arkansas border. Ridging extended north of this feature to northern Manitoba. east of the ridge, low pressure was located off the coast of Labrador Newfoundland. A trough extended southwest of this feature into southeastern Ontario. West of the ridge, low pressure was located over far southwestern Alberta and far southeastern British Columbia. A trough extended southwest of this feature to San Francisco CA. Downstream of the low and trough, broad southwesterly flow was noted from southern California northeast to the western Dakotas, Wyoming, Colorado, northwestern Kansas and Nebraska. Within this flow, satellite imagery is indicating several weak disturbances. These disturbances were located over northeastern New Mexico, Western Colorado and central Wyoming. Abundant mid and high level clouds continue to stream into western and north central Nebraska this afternoon. Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, 2 PM CDT temperatures ranged from 86 degrees at Broken Bow and North Platte to 90 degrees at Imperial, Ogallala, O'Neill and Valentine.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Low end precipitation chances will continue to be the main forecast challenge in the short term. Upper level low pressure will cross southern Saskatchewan tonight. Strong dynamics in association with this feature will lead to thunderstorms (some severe) over the western Dakotas this evening. Further south, embedded in the southwesterly mid level flow, a weak shortwave disturbance, will initiate convection over the front range of Colorado this evening. This activity will gradually work into western Kansas and SW Nebraska early this evening. The latest CAMS continue to hint at isolated to widely scattered coverage of storms tonight. With limited QPF indicated in the NBM ensembles, was inclined to utilize pops in the 20 to 30% range tonight generally south of a line from Arthur to Callaway. Further north, a frontal boundary will drop south into northwestern Nebraska overnight, stalling across the northern half of the Sandhills. Was concerned about precipitation INVOF the front overnight. However, this is not supported by the CAMS as well as the ensemble NBM fcst which has a near zero chance for measurable pcpn through 12z Monday. As for the severe threat this evening. The 12z NAM soln indicates limited CAPE this afternoon across central and western Nebraska and the 18z LBF RAOB continues to indicate an inverted V type sounding. That being said, damaging winds appear to be the main severe threat ATTM. The frontal boundary over the northern Sandhills, will lift north as a warm front on Monday. A secondary boundary will exist from far NW Kansas into SE Nebraska. The latest CAMS as well as the 12z NAM12 soln develop convection over northeastern Colorado late Monday afternoon. This activity will lift northeast into western and southwestern Nebraska mid evening Monday. Forced by a low level jet, the boundary off to the south of the FA will lift north overnight with precipitation chances transitioning from southern portions of the forecast area to northern areas overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning. ATTM, decent shear exists and forecast CAPE across the southern half of the forecast area is favorable for hail. Gusty winds will be possible with the main threat Monday evening. With the front over the central Sandhills slowly transitioning north Monday, highs will range from the middle 80s in the north to around 90 over SW Nebraska. Overnight lows will remain mild tonight and Monday night with readings ranging from 55 to 70 tonight and 60 to near 70 Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

On Tuesday, the frontal boundary will lift north into northern Nebraska. Persistent clouds and the threat for showers and thunderstorms will carry over Tuesday into Tuesday evening with the main threat across northern Nebraska. Highs Tuesday will range from the lower 80s in the north to near 90 in the south. On Wednesday, a strong shortwave trough will cross the northern Rockies bringing a decent threat for thunderstorms to the Dakotas. The current NBM forecast has some isolated pops across northwestern portions of the forecast area Wednesday night. The latest deterministic GFS and to a lesser degree the EC soln does generate some QPF over NW and north central Nebraska Wednesday night. The NBM barely has a 20% chance of exceeding 0.01" of QPF across the northwestern forecast area Wednesday night. That being said, will let the NBM initialization ride for now. High pressure aloft will continue to retrograde to the west northwest, becoming anchored over the central and southern plains late this week into the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry conditions for Labor Day weekend with very warm temperatures. High temperatures look to be well into the 90s across the forecast area for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Overall, the current high temperature forecast is running around 10 degrees above normal for the first week of September.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast Colorado this afternoon. These are forecasted to move into southwest Nebraska this evening with gusty winds. May need to add a TEMPO group at LBF for thunderstorms this evening, but confidence not high enough at this time. Expect broken mid and high level cloudiness and VFR to prevail.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.