textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening across the region, with the greatest risk across northern Nebraska. The initial threat will be for large hail, with a growing wind threat throughout the night.

- A similar severe weather set up returns on Friday, with strong to severe thunderstorms expected late Friday afternoon and evening. The initial threat will be for large hail, with another threat for damaging wind gusts as the night progresses.

- A brief lull in thunderstorms is expected early week, before a return of thunderstorm chances middle next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Thunderstorms across north central into northeast Colorado are expected to track to the north-northeast overnight, tracking into the Panhandle late overnight. As showers and thunderstorms continue to weaken, CAM guidance continues to suggest strong downdraft winds with these decaying showers, potentially bringing strong to severe wind gusts late night into the pre dawn hours.

As for today, an upper level trough remains to the west, with a ridge of high pressure remaining across the southeastern United States. Surface low pressure is expected to remain across South Dakota, with a surface boundary tracking across the Nebraska Panhandle. Ample moisture remains across the region, with afternoon dewpoints expected to remain in the 60s and possible 70s. Clear skies in the afternoon will support surface heating with highs pushing into the low 90s across the region. With the warm, moist air in place, CAM guidance suggests around 4,000 J/kg surface based CAPE to develop across most of the region tomorrow afternoon. Upper level support remains strong, with the mid and upper level jets supporting around 40 knots deep layer shear. This combination is expected to support isolated severe convection late afternoon into the evening, mainly along the frontal boundary. With the surface low remaining further north, expecting the greater severe threat to remain mostly across northern Nebraska into South Dakota, where a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is in effect. Although the north appears the most likely area for severe weather, given the environment, the entire region is under at least a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5), with some question for coverage of severe storms. The main risks remain large hail, especially in discrete cells, with a growing threat for damaging wind gusts as storms grow more linear through the night.

A very similar pattern emerges on Friday. A surface low once again sets up across south Dakota, pushing a surface boundary across the region. Once again dewpoints climb into the 60s, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Guidance suggests potential for greater than 3,000 J/kg of surface based CAPE, and upper level support remains, with 40 to 50 knots of deep layer shear. Again, this environment will support initial supercell development, especially along frontal boundary, with potential upscale growth as the evening progresses. The greatest severe risk again remains across South Dakota and northern Nebraska, where a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is already in place. However, much like today, the ambient environment will support at least a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across most of the region. The main risks remain large hail, especially with initial supercells, morphing into another damaging wind threat as storms grow into a linear system.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Upper ridging begins to migrate westward by this weekend and early next week, and this finally leads to weaker winds aloft across portions of the Plains. It also appears that it will bring a brief lull in thunderstorm chances into early next week. By midweek however, guidance suggests weak upper troughing may begin to slowly move east across the central Plains. Should this occur, a return of thunderstorm chances to the area would be expected. That said, upper level winds still look somewhat meager aloft, and this casts doubt on any severe threat. However, with ample moisture and instability in place, trends will continue to be monitored closely.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow morning across western and north central Nebraska. Patchy fog will quickly end this morning across northern Nebraska, with any lingering MVFR visibilities ending.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight, with brief MVFR visibilities and CIGs along with gusty, erratic winds. Trends will continue to be monitored for potential TS inclusion for KLBF and KVTN.

Gusty west and northwest winds associated with showers persist this morning, with gusts as high as 30 to 40kts. Winds then return to southeasterly this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 30kts expected. Winds remain light from the south tonight, at 5 to 10kts.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.