textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into the middle of next week, with plenty of available moisture in the environment.

- Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms appear possible on Friday across portions of western Nebraska.

- Higher confidence exists in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western Nebraska Saturday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Humidity should be a but higher today, as somewhat deeper low-level moisture works northward into the area. Gusty southeast winds do continue, but with the higher humidity fire weather should remain capped at elevated and across northern portions of Nebraska in areas which have yet to green up from lack of rainfall. Otherwise a shortwave will continue to works it's way slowly northward through KS. An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur though the day from south to north as ascent increases across the area. Flow aloft will remain southeast both at the surface and aloft, carrying any convection from KS or new development northwestward across the area. Overall shear profile is really not conducive for severe storm, but will have to keep an eye on any localized training of showers/storms which would produce some locally heavier rainfall amounts. At this time it appears this threat is low as showers appear they should remain scattered enough and fairly progressive.

The shortwave weakens tonight as it lift northward into central and eastern Nebraska. Loose much of the instability, and primarily just expecting showers through most of tonight.

Friday, a closed upper level low will begin to pivot northeastward into the Intermountain West. Scattered afternoon convection will develop across the higher terrain to the west. It is unclear how far east this convection will move, as the greater lift associated with the system will still be west of the area. Nevertheless, a stronger storm or two may try and progress eastward into a favorable upslope but weakly sheared environment across western Nebraska. Strong wind gusts would be the main concern.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Saturday, the upper level low continues to lift north, tracking over the Intermountain West. As this upper low tracks north, expect a strengthening low pressure system to develop across the Plains, creating surface forcing for showers and thunderstorms. Current model guidance along with ensemble guidance continue to suggest higher confidence in precipitation occurring Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning across the region. However, latest runs have suggested increased instability across the region and slightly stronger bulk shear values, suggesting a possibility of strong to possibly severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening. In fact, with the latest guidance, SPC has issued a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for a large portion of western Nebraska, mostly west of Highway 83 and along and north of Interstate 80 for Saturday afternoon. Will be keeping a close eye on the forecast trends the next few days, especially as the mesoscale features can become more resolved. Either way, Saturday certainly brings a risk for some active weather across the region.

As for Sunday, as the low continues lifting north, precipitation chances begin to decrease. Still, given the available moisture and potential remnant forcing, additional showers and thunderstorms may occur Sunday afternoon, though the severe weather threat appears lower, given weaker forcing.

Looking ahead into next week, there is still some disagreement in model guidance on the upper level pattern, but there is at least some agreement in the low tracking across the northern Plains. This will keep a fairly active pattern across the region, bringing continued chances for showers and thunderstorms into mid week. For now, the severe weather potential remains uncertain, as there is still some uncertainty in where the upper level low will track.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska through the daytime hours. Showers and thunderstorms across southwest Nebraska may bring some brief MVFR conditions to KLBF through the afternoon, but for now expecting mostly low end VFR conditions through the afternoon. Gusts increase late this morning out of the southeast, remaining so through the evening. By the evening, a wide expanse of stratus tracks in across southwest Nebraska expanding northward. This is expected to bring MVFR and IFR conditions to area terminals overnight. Additionally, with the recent moisture, fog development is possible overnight across southwest and central Nebraska.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.