textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northerly winds this afternoon may lead to a few hours of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening, with chances of rain remaining through Wednesday. Most of the rain is expected across western and southwestern Nebraska.

- Light snow showers are possible Tuesday night across western Nebraska, with little to no accumulations expected.

- Low confidence in showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday night and again Saturday night, although the severe potential remains uncertain at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A cold front tracks south across the region today, bringing cooler temperatures in its wake and gusty northerly winds. To the south of the front, highs climb into the mid to upper 70s, which will also be accompanied by lower humidity values. To the north of the front, highs reach into the 60s, with slightly higher humidity. As the front continues to track south, it brings increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across western Nebraska, with fairly widespread chances for rain showers by the evening hours.

Prior to the chances of showers and thunderstorms, there may be a few hours of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, largely driven by the gusty northerly winds. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected, with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph by late morning and throughout the afternoon. Lowest humidity this afternoon is expected across southwest Nebraska, generally south of Interstate 80, with minimum values in the 15 to 20 percent range. Across the Sandhills, humidity remains slightly higher, in the 20 to 30 percent range. While critical humidity values are expected to be short lived and isolated south of the Interstate, the gusty winds and warm temperatures may cause localized elevated to near critical concerns, especially for areas where recent precipitation has been lower. However, by the late afternoon and evening, fire weather concerns are expected to quickly dwindle, as precipitation chances increase.

As for precipitation this afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front continuing through the night. As the front tracks south, a second area of low pressure deepens off the lee of the Rockies, increasing surface convergence across western and southwestern Nebraska. This is also expected to slow the front, keeping rain chances continuing overnight. Initial precipitation is expected to be on the lighter side, especially as the atmosphere continues to moisten in the lower levels. However, some of the stronger cells could bring a few hundredths of an inch, possibly up to one tenth of an inch in the late afternoon. Overnight, more widespread and longer lasting rain showers are expected. Given the longer duration, expecting a much more beneficial rainfall across portions of the forecast region, especially areas in the southern Panhandle and along and south of Interstate 80.

By Tuesday, an upper level shortwave tracks south across the Dakotas, helping deepen the surface low. This should bring continuing chances of rain showers and thunderstorms across western and southwestern Nebraska. On and off showers are expected to last throughout the afternoon and evening, bringing additional beneficial rainfall across portions of the region. Temperatures remain on the cooler side Tuesday, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the the region. As temperatures drop overnight into the 30s across the region, may begin to see snow showers develop across western Nebraska, with generally light accumulations expected. Warmer soil temperatures and recent rainfall may help to limit accumulations, but still, accumulations are generally expected to remain between a dusting and few tenths of an inch.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Any snow Tuesday night will quickly change back over to all rain on Wednesday as temperatures rise back above freezing. Expect lingering showers to continue through much of the day as the frontal boundary remains stalled out across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Rain showers combined with cloudy conditions will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs remaining in the upper 40s to mid 50s. High pressure will begin to build into the region on Wednesday night allowing skies to gradually clear. These clearing skies and cold air advection into the region behind the front will allow lows to drop into the mid 20s to low 30s for most locations. While no freeze headlines are in place at this time, as confidence continues to increase in these colder temperatures, they may be needed across portions of north central and western Nebraska Wednesday night.

Strong upper level ridging over the western US will keep surface high pressure over the region through Thursday. A return to more active weather arrives on Thursday night as a shortwave trough pushes across western Nebraska. This will provide an opportunity for some showers and thunderstorms across much of the region. Not expecting severe storms right now, but could see a stronger storm or two especially early in the evening. The next potential for widespread thunderstorms arrives on the weekend as another upper level trough digs south across the Rockies allowing for a low pressure system to develop across the central Plains. Severe risk is uncertain at this time, but will continue to monitor this developing system over the next few days.

Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend with highs returning into the 70s. Overnight lows will also remain steady in the 40s through Sunday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR aviation conditions are expected through this afternoon. Increasing winds are expected by the late morning at KVTN and into the afternoon at KLBF as a frontal system moves into the region. Northeast gusts up to 30 knots are expected. Increasing clouds are also anticipated as the front approaches, however, ceilings will remain above 5000 feet until the evening. Light rain showers will develop by mid to late evening resulting in reductions in visibility and ceilings dropping as low as 5000 feet. Showers will continue through the remainder of the TAF period at KLBF, but are expected to come to an end by early morning across northern Nebraska.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.