textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly across western Nebraska

- Additional chances for scattered thunderstorm will be possible Wednesday late afternoon and evening and again Thursday

- Potential for heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday

- Hot temperatures return by the weekend, nearing 100 degrees by mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The main concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances both today and Wednesday. Today's thunderstorm chances, confidence remains low in if there will be enough shear to maintain thunderstorms, leading to lower confidence. There is a CAP in place that is expected to remain at least through much of the afternoon, which will limit storm development for the afternoon but should start to see the CAP erode by late afternoon/early evening across western Nebraska as the trof moves in from the west. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s and 60s as southerly winds will continue to advect moisture into the area this afternoon. Better moisture convergence across the northwest Sandhills, thus greater confidence that should a storm develop it will be able to maintain itself across the northwest Sandhills where the greater moisture axis exist. 0 to 6 km shear is marginal around 20 to 25 kts, but CAPE is sufficient around 1200 to 1800 J/kg. A storm or two could become strong to severe with hail and strong winds being the main hazard, the greatest potential for severe storms will generally be north of HWY 2 in closer proximity to a warm front.

There will be another chance for thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday looks to be a better chance for more scattered potential for storm development with a better environment. As a frontal boundary moves southward across Nebraska with CAPE values around 2200 to nearing 3000 J/kg. Shear will also be better with 0 to 6 km shear around 35 to 40 kts. The greatest threat for convection development will be across western Nebraska into southwest Nebraska focused near the advancing front. There will be the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail with a secondary threat of heavy rainfall with a slight risk of for areas generally along and east of HWY 83.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

There will be another chance for thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon/evening, potentially more scattered to widespread as a shortwave trof translates across the region. The environment will be favorable for more organized storm development as there will be greater forcing and shear along with continued moisture advection into the area. Again the main hazards will be the strong winds and large hail threat, but most of western and north central Nebraska is outlooked by WPC for a slight risk of excessive rainfall as well, so will need to monitor the potential risk for flooding, depending how the storms develop today and tomorrow.

Beyond Thursday, will start to see an upper level ridge building in from the west heading into the weekend with temperatures reaching the 90s on Saturday and Sunday. The upper level ridge becomes centered over the Central Plains CONUS by early next week remaining over the area through the late next week. Confidence continues to increase in seeing temperatures upper 90s to potentially nearing 100 degrees by mid-week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Decaying convection to the west will shift multiple outflow boundaries east through western Nebraska. These should bring wind shifts and brief gusty winds as a result before subsiding.

The majority of the overnight should remain VFR with the threat of light rain likely remaining VFR conditions should anything approach KVTN. Towards daybreak, NWP guidance hints at IFR/LIFR conditions across far northern Nebraska. NAM/HRRR both suggest this potential so inserted a quick TEMPO group to account for this. It is entirely plausible this remains north of the airspace and could be removed with future amendments. Will monitor trends. VFR conditions are likely for much if not the remainder of the forecast period. Diurnal cumulus should form over KLBF and will lead to low-end VFR conditions. Later Wednesday night, convection will again form to the west and threaten southwest Nebraska, including KLBF. Coverage is in question at this time so will insert another PROB30 to account for this.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.