textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon and evening with strong southerly winds and low humidity.

- Critical fire weather conditions persist through Thursday into Thursday evening across the western and central Sandhills into portions of southwest Nebraska as gusty northwest winds develop on Thursday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase this weekend. Saturday night through Sunday night will be the most active periods, with the potential for strong thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. The severe threat remains uncertain at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Southerly winds continue 20 to 30 mph with gust to 40 mph late this afternoon into this evening. With humidity in the upper teens and gusty winds, the current Red Flag Warning will remain in effect until 06Z tonight for southeastern portions of southwest into central NE. Have extended the Red Flag Warning overnight through Thursday evening across the remaining fire zones across the western into the central Sandhills as critical fire weather conditions return for Thursday.

Tonight, an H85 jet will increase to 40 to 50 kts. This will keep surface winds up at 20 to 35 mph for areas east of Highway 61 overnight. As a result lows tonight will be mild in the mid to upper 50s. There will also be broken high cloudiness tonight ahead of an upper trough moving into the Northern Plains. Will also see a modest increase in sfc dewpoints into the lower 40s across the west.

Thursday, the upper level ridge has a subtle breakdown as a closed low moves across southern Saskatchewan Canada and a trough moves across the Northern Plains. This will bring further warm air advection with highs from the mid to upper 80s north and the lower 90s south. A surface trough and dryline will extend from near Ainsworth through Imperial by late afternoon. Dewpoints will fall into the mid 20 to low 30s behind the dryline, with upper 30s to mid 40s to the east. Min RH will drop to 10 to 15 percent near and west of Highway 83 as northwest winds increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph west of Highway 83. The strongest winds will be across the western Sandhills west of Mullen through Ogallala. Therefore the Red Flag Warning today has been extended into Thursday evening across the western Sandhills, portions of the central Sandhills and southwest Nebraska due to the gusty winds and very low humidity. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across southeast portions of the forecast area. While the majority of the mesoscale and deterministic models are dry, there is low confidence that an isolated strong storm or two could develop south of a line from Grant through Broken Bow. This could occur if the dryline stalls across southwest/central NE and higher dewpoints to the east and highs in the lower 90s are able to break to cap. Strong to possibly damaging winds will be the main severe threat with any storm as soundings show an inverted-V.

Thursday night, winds become light and variable as the weak surface trough moves into eastern Nebraska with mostly clear skies. Lows will range in the 40s.

Friday, winds will be fairly light north to northwest as dewpoints fall into the low 20s west and mid 20 to mid 30s east. Afternoon humidity will be quite lows from near 10 percent across the west and 10 to 15 percent east. Fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical due to the low humidity. Winds and wind gusts are shown to remain below critical levels to around 15 mph most areas, though portions of the western Sandhills will gust to around 20 mph.

Friday night, an upper trough will move through the West Coast as the upper flow becomes slightly southwesterly. While dry conditions are expected across western Nebraska, some thunderstorms are possible across eastern NE south across KS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Saturday, a large upper trough will move into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. This will bring an increased southwesterly flow aloft across western NE along with an easterly upslope flow at the surface. PWATs may increase to around 0.75 inch across southwest into central NE. A shortwave disturbance in the H5 flow is shown to move across CO and swrn KS Saturday afternoon, bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon. Highs were lowered to the low to mid 80s due to increased cloud cover and easterly winds at the surface. As this disturbance lifts northeast Saturday night, likely POPs are forecast. Confidence is below average on timing and coverage. NBM mean QPF Saturday night is above a quarter inch across the central and eastern Sandhills, to less than a tenth of an inch parts of swrn NE.

Sunday, the upper trough axis will move into eastern MT, south into the central Rockies. This will drive a cold front into the northwest Sandhills, with southeast winds ahead of the front. Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms given the forcing. Ahead of the cold front, guidance suggests afternoon SBCAPE values may reach to around 1500 J/kg, with 40 to 50 knots deep layer shear. This environment looks favorable for more organized thunderstorm development ahead of the front, which may pose a better threat for severe weather. SPC highlights portions of the region, east of Highway 83, in a Slight Risk for Sunday afternoon and evening. While the exact severe threats are uncertain at this time, due to the location of the surface low, the environment will be supportive of organized storms.

Much cooler behind the cold front on Monday as the upper trough axis swings through the region. Chances for showers. Highs from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Cooler and unsettled weather may linger into Tuesday/Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday only in the lower 60s. Could see cold lows in the low to mid 30s across the west Monday night. May see a warmup into the 70s to near 80 next Wednesday as upper ridging returns.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Winds will remain strong through the overnight out of the south to southwest with sustained winds around 15 to 20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. There will also be LLWS generally around midnight through the early morning hours with LLWS around 45 to 50 kts for both terminal sites, KLBF and KVTN. Winds will shift to the west then to the north Thursday morning with wind around 10 to 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Southerly winds continue 20 to 30 mph with gust to 40 mph late this afternoon into this evening. With humidity in the upper teens and gusty winds, the current Red Flag Warning will remain in effect until 06Z tonight for zones 209 and 219. Extended the Red Flag Warning overnight through Thursday evening across the remaining fire zones 204, 206, and 210 across the western into the central Sandhills as critical fire weather conditions return for Thursday.

Tonight, an H85 jet will increase to 40 to 50 kts. This will keep surface winds up at 20 to 35 mph for areas east of Highway 61 overnight.

Thursday, a surface trough and dryline will extend from near Ainsworth through Imperial by late afternoon. Dewpoints will fall into the mid 20 to low 30s behind the dryline, with upper 30s to mid 40s to the east. As highs reach the mid 80s to lower 90s, Min RH will drop to 10 to 15 percent near and west of Highway 83 as northwest winds increase to 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph west of Highway 83. The strongest winds will be across the western Sandhills west of Mullen through Ogallala. Therefore the Red Flag Warning today has been extended into Thursday evening across the western Sandhills, portions of the central Sandhills and southwest Nebraska due to the gusty winds and very low humidity.

Friday, winds will be fairly light north to northwest as dewpoints fall into the low 20s west and mid 20 to mid 30s east. Afternoon humidity will be quite lows from near 10 percent across the west and 10 to 15 percent east. Fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical due to the low humidity. Winds and wind gusts however are shown to remain below critical levels to around 15 mph most areas, though portions of the western Sandhills (zone 204) will gust to around 20 mph. Will monitor if winds trend upward for a possible fire weather highlight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Thursday for NEZ204-206-210. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for NEZ209-219.