textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect very warm temperatures across the forecast area this afternoon with highs running 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year. Critical fire weather conditions are expected in the central and western Sandhills, as well as the eastern Panhandle this afternoon due to a combination of low relative humidity and gusty westerly winds.

- A cold front will track through the forecast area tonight, bringing a slight chance of light snow to portions of the eastern Panhandle and northwestern Sandhills. Little to no accumulations are expected.

- After "cooler" readings in the 40s Saturday, readings will climb into the mid 50s to mid 60s for Monday through Christmas Day. Expect dry conditions through this period.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had a broad shortwave trough of low pressure extending from the Arrowhead of Minnesota, south along the Mississippi River to southern Arkansas. East of this feature, high pressure was anchored over the central Caribbean with ridging extending north to Bermuda. West of the trough, ridging was present from eastern Idaho to southern portions of Saskatchewan. West of this ridging, a decent shortwave trough was present along the western coast of British Columbia. Immediately downstream of this feature, embedded shortwaves were noted over central and eastern British Columbia. Overnight, per satellite imagery, a broad plume of high cloudiness was present from the pacific NW into the central and northern Rockies. This shield of high cloudiness had pushed east onto the high plains of Montana, northeastern Wyoming and the western Dakotas. At the surface overnight, a broad area of high pressure was present across the central portion of the CONUS from northern Texas, north to the Canadian Border. Overnight, skies were generally clear with a few high clouds beginning to drift into northern Nebraska. Temperatures as of 2 AM CT, ranged from 11 degrees at O'Neill to 23 degrees at Imperial.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

An upper level disturbance, currently over British Columbia, will migrate east into southern Alberta, then Southern Saskatchewan by 00z tonight. As this feature migrates east today, surface low pressure will deepen across Alberta and Saskatchewan in advance of the H5 shortwave. This will force a warm front through the forecast area this morning, followed by the establishment of a surface trough this afternoon. By mid afternoon, this feature should be aligned across central portions of the forecast area. West of the surface trough, there is the potential for gusty west winds. The latest NBM ensemble has a better than 50% chance for wind gusts greater than 30 MPH generally west of a line from Valentine to Paxton this afternoon. This probability is greater than 75% across the western Sandhills into the eastern Panhandle mid afternoon. With the west winds this afternoon and ample mixing, afternoon highs will reach well into 60s across locations west of an Ainsworth to Broken Bow line. Mid to upper 50s are expected east of this line. Record highs for today are 63, 66, 63 and 69 for North Platte, Valentine, Broken Bow and Imperial respectively. With the forecast high of 66 at Imperial, 65 at North Platte, 62 at Valentine and 59 at Broken Bow, North Platte stands the best chance this afternoon of breaking a record high temperature. Winds will diminish fairly quickly early evening as forecast soundings indicate quick decoupling across the area. Overnight, as surface low pressure tracks from Saskatchewan into western Ontario, it will force a cold front through the forecast area. Little to no precipitation is anticipated with this feature, other than some slight chances for light precipitation mainly over the Pine Ridge of northern Sheridan County. The inherited forecast had a good handle on this forecast and was in good agreement with tonight's deterministic HRRR, NAM12 and GFS solns. In light of the decent CAA behind the front, breezy conditions will continue into the overnight and will lead to above normal lows tonight with readings in the mid to upper 20s forecast across the forecast area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Broad ridging will build across the central CONUS beginning Monday and persisting through the end of the week. Very warm temperatures are likely next week with periodic high temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s each day. Wouldn't be surprised if several record high temperatures were eclipsed next week across the area. In fact the latest ECMWF EFI table has high temperatures Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in the greater than 95th percentile for EFI and around the 90th percentile for Christmas Day. The SOT on those days is indicative of a extreme event with the strongest signal on Monday and Wednesday. As for record high temperatures next week, ATTM Wednesday and Christmas day have the best chances for breaking their records of 62 and 65 respectively. Record highs for Monday and Tuesday are in the lower 70s for North Platte. Given the current forecast, we will be short of those readings.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Main aviation concerns will focus on gusty winds both at and off the surface. Have maintained LLWS for both terminals, particularly at VTN which should persist well into the overnight. A frontal boundary will arrive from the north and lead to a wind flip as well as lowered ceilings. Will hold off on introducing sub-VFR for now but do believe potential exists and may be necessary with later forecasts for at least a brief period Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 306 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Looking at the NBM ensemble forecast probabilities for wind gusts this afternoon, there is a decent threat for 25+ MPH wind gusts extending east of the current RFW in zone 204. This increased threat for wind gusts encompasses a broad area in zone 206. Current min RH in this zone is in the upper teens to around 20 percent. There is also support for higher wind gusts in the 00z HRRR forecast for mid afternoon today. The NAM also advertises a tongue of stronger winds in the H800 to H700 level spreading east of the panhandle into the central Sandhills for a brief period this afternoon. If temperatures do warm above the current forecast, these stronger winds have a better potential of reaching the surface. The only caveat in all of this is possible high level cloud cover this afternoon across northern into eastern portions of the forecast area. The latest NAM12 rh product, with support from the GFS doesn't have a strong signal for cloud cover this afternoon. That being said, with min RH in the upper teens and forecast confidence in seeing 25+ MPH wind gusts spreading into zone 206 this afternoon, will add this zone to the existing RFW this afternoon. This lines up better with the latest day one fire outlook from SPC.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NEZ204-206.