textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- After mainly dry conditions tonight and Wednesday, precipitation chances will increase Wednesday night into Thursday night with a good chance for wetting rains across western and north central portions of the forecast area. Heavy rain is possible over northern Nebraska Thursday night into Friday morning.

- High temperatures will be warmest Thursday and Friday with readings in the 80s. Otherwise, high temperatures will be generally in the 70s.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

H5 pattern this morning has a broad area of high pressure over the southeastern CONUS. North of this high, an upper level low was present over northwestern Ontario and northeastern Manitoba. Further west, a decent shortwave trough was just off the coast of the Olympic Peninsula. West of this feature, high pressure was located over the Gulf of Alaska with ridging extending north into Alaska. In addition to the shortwave over the pacific NW, a second trough was present just off the coast of central California. Across the central plains today, broad west northwest flow extended from Nebraska to central and southern California. At the surface this afternoon, weak high pressure was located over northeastern Nebraska. A stationary front extended from the Texas Panhandle, east northeast into east central Kansas and northeastern Missouri. North of the front, skies were mostly cloudy south of a line from Ogallala to Burwell. North of this line, skies were clear to partly cloudy. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 62 degrees at North Platte, to 69 degrees at Valentine.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A frontal boundary will remain anchored across southern and eastern Kansas overnight. With the forecast area being well north of this feature, and under the influence of weak high pressure, precipitation chances will be limited to far southeastern portions of the forecast area overnight. The threat for precipitation will linger into the morning hours over far eastern portions of the forecast area as some weak mid level warm air advection rides north from central into northeastern Nebraska Wednesday morning. Am expecting cloud cover to be fairly persistent overnight, particularly from southwestern Nebraska into the eastern Sandhills. This will lead to warmer min temps tonight across SW Nebraska into the eastern Sandhills where middle 50s are forecast. Further north and northwest, limited clearing tonight will lead to cooler lows around 50 degrees. On Wednesday, the upper level shortwave currently over the Olympic peninsula will merge with the California disturbance over northern California. By Wednesday afternoon, the H5 pattern will transition to more southwesterly and south- southwesterly aloft over the high plains. With a surface trough deepening along the front ranges of Colorado and SE Wyoming, the frontal boundary, anchored over Kansas, will begin to lift north as a warm front. How far north this feature lifts beyond Wednesday night will be key to precipitation chances along with the threat for heavy rain Thursday into Thursday night (more about that in the long term section below). In the interim, there will be threat for showers and thunderstorms overnight Wednesday night from SW into central Nebraska. This area is north of the approaching warm front and on the nose of a decent S to N oriented low level jet which extends from western Kansas into far southwestern Nebraska.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The warm front will lift north on Thursday. How far this feature lifts north is still up in the air with this morning's deterministic models. The NAM this morning is least aggressive pushing this feature north into far southern Nebraska by Thursday afternoon. The GFS soln has this feature well into the northern Sandhills and the EC soln from last night has this feature over the central Sandhills. That being said, this frontal boundary will have a huge impact on highs Thursday and precipitation chances Thursday afternoon/night across the area. This difference is reflected in the latest high temp guidance for LBF Thursday. The MAV, MET and EC guidance has a high temperature for LBF Thursday of 92, 73 and 85 degrees respectively. The latest NBM has a high of 83 for LBF which is right in between the warmer MAV and coolest MET guidance. The NBM ensemble has a 11 degree spread in highs for LBF Thursday with the 25th and 75th%le ranging from 78 to 89 degrees. This is a 2 degree increase from the spread of 9 degrees (81-90) in last night's forecast. For now feel the 83 degree mark is probably the best course of action given the increasing spread in ensemble highs for Thursday. Another forecast aspect that hinges on frontal location is precipitation chances Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. All three deterministic solns develop heavy rain on north of the frontal boundary. The location of greatest QPF and best precipitation chances, ranges from the central and northern Sandhills (NAM soln), to far northern Nebraska and South Dakota EC and GFS solns. Looking at the latest QPF forecast and NBM pop forecast, the northern solns are favored here with likely to low end categorical pops Thursday night into Friday morning. With respect to heavy rain potential Thursday night, the latest EC EFI and SOT forecast is indicating an EFI of .8-.9 and a SOT of 1-2 over southern South Dakota and far northern Nebraska Thursday night. Forecast PWATS in the NAM and GFS solns reach 1.7"+ and 1.5"+ Thursday afternoon which is well above the 99% ile for September 17th. That being said, will probably mention a threat for heavy rain over northern Nebraska Thursday night into Friday morning in the HWO. Upper level low pressure will slowly track east from Idaho to eastern Wyoming and eastern Montana Friday into Sunday. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will lead to a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area. ATTM the best chances for widespread precipitation appear to be Saturday night. Beyond Sunday, there will be a continued threat for showers and thunderstorms across the area, however, coverage will be spotty at best.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

For the KLBF terminal: Expect mostly cloudy skies over the next 24 hours. Cloud decks will remain broken at 9000 to 12000 FT AGL through the early overnight hours. Ceilings will fall to around 2500 FT AGL after 10z Wednesday. Ceilings will fall further to MVFR levels after 13z Wednesday. There is a small threat for IFR CIGS below 1000 FT AGL Wednesday morning. Given current forecast confidence, will forgo mention of IFR cigs and keep them at MVFR levels Wednesday morning. For the KVTN terminal: Expect scattered clouds of 10000 FT AGL this afternoon, lifting to 20000 to 25000 FT AGL this evening. Skies will cloud over during the overnight hours with ceilings falling to around 6000 FT AGL by daybreak Wednesday. By mid morning Wednesday, ceilings will approach 2000 FT AGL.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.