textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect likely precipitation today through Wednesday night with heavy rain possible from southwestern into central and eastern Nebraska. A flood watch is in effect for Tuesday night through Thursday.

- After some chance for showers across southwest Nebraska Thursday, drier and cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend. Temperatures will average several degrees below normal during this time frame. Despite the cooler weather, not expecting any frost or freeze conditions just yet.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Precipitation chances and the threat for heavy rain continues to highlight near term forecast challenges. Favorable lift for precipitation will shift east this morning and should bring a temporary hiatus to precipitation chances this morning into the early afternoon hours. By this evening, a second lead disturbance with favorable mid level warm air advection and lift will track from southwestern Kansas into southern and southeastern Nebraska. With respect to the second round of precipitation tonight: The latest deterministic NAM soln keeps the bulk of precipitation confined to south central and southeastern Nebraska with a sharp cutoff in precipitation chances noted along and north of a line from Ogallala to O'Neill. The latest NBM forecast tonight is trending more toward this latest NAM12 soln which also has support from the GFS soln from 18z earlier today. The EC soln from 18z has also shows limited precipitation chances tonight for the bulk of the forecast area and highlights far southern portions of the FA for precipitation. In summary, this second round of precipitation has trended south with the latest model runs and is not looking as promising for precipitation Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, the upper level low will track into New Mexico. Downstream of this feature surface low pressure will develop and track northeast from northeastern New Mexico into western Kansas. A broad shield of precipitation on the northern periphery of the surface low will lift north from Kansas into southwestern and south central Nebraska by daybreak Wednesday morning. This shield will push north into southwestern, central and eastern Nebraska during the day Wednesday, continuing into at least Wednesday evening and possibly longer. This third episode appears to have the best chances for 1+" of QPF for the area along and south of a line from Grant, to North Platte to Bartlett. Inherited a flood watch for this area and based on tonight's forecast trends, believe this continues to be on track. ATTM, the best chances for flooding still appear to be from Perkins to southern Lincoln and southern Custer County and points south. The latest NBM ensemble forecast of 24 hr QPF > 1.00" (ending at 7AM CT Thursday), has a better than 60% chance of exceedance along and south of a line from Grant, to North Platte to Broken Bow. It is important to note with tonight's runs is the sharp cutoff in precipitation on the northern periphery of the deformation band has tightened up tonight and this is reflected in the latest NBM forecast. In summary, the main changes to this morning's forecast were to tighten up precipitation chances on the northern periphery of the system, with little to no changes in total QPF for the next 48 hours along and south of a line from Ogallala to O'Neill. Pops were also decreased today across the area as we will be between rounds 1 (through daybreak this morning) and 2 (tonight), with limited forcing noted.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The threat for rain showers will continue into the overnight hours for both terminals. With precipitation intensity being fairly light overnight, visby restrictions will only be as low as 3 to 4 miles with showers. Ceilings will remain around 6000 FT AGL for both terminals overnight into Tuesday. Ceilings will fall to 2000 to 3000 FT AGL at the KLBF terminal late this afternoon persisting into the evening hours. At the KVTN terminal, ceilings will rise to 9000 to 20000 FT AGL later this afternoon into the evening hours.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for NEZ038-058-059-069>071.