textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds arrive today with high confidence in even stronger winds tonight lasting through Friday afternoon.

- Moderate confidence in snow impacting portions of north central Nebraska on Friday.

- Dry and windy conditions in southwest Nebraska on Friday will lead to near-critical to critical fire conditions.

- A return to dry conditions and much colder temperatures begins on Saturday as well lasting through the first half of the weekend before warming back up through the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Dry conditions continue through this afternoon as surface high pressure remains over the Great Plains. Temperatures will return to above normal this afternoon across the region with highs rising back into the 50s. Strong northwest winds will develop by the afternoon with gusts up to 45 mph. Winds will diminish slightly after sunset, but the relief will be short-lived.

Even stronger winds are expected tonight into Friday as the upper level trough digs south across the Great Lakes and into the lower Mississippi River Valley. As the pressure gradient tightens overnight and into Friday morning, northwest winds will increase significantly. Gusts up to 55 to 65 mph are likely, with a low probability of even seeing some gusts near 70 mph at times. Have kept the High Wind Watch in place for now, but as confidence continues to increase, this will likely be upgraded with the next forecast cycle. These strong winds will cause difficulties driving as well as downed powerlines and trees across the region. Use caution traveling on Friday and prepare for potential power outages. Winds will quickly diminish Friday evening as high pressure begins to build into the region.

In addition to strong winds, this trough will bring a potential for some snow across north central Nebraska during the day on Friday. While the majority of the precipitation associated with this system will remain over to the east and over the Great Lakes region, some isolated snow showers could graze extreme north central and portions of northern Nebraska. While overall snow accumulations will be under an inch, when combined with these strong winds reductions in visibility as well as areas of blowing and drifting snow will occur. If traveling on Friday be sure to allow for extra travel time and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Heading into the extended period, colder, below normal temperatures will return to the region. Current model guidance suggests 850 mb temperatures -13 to -22 C range behind the departing through Saturday. This will result in highs ranging from the upper 20s across southwest Nebraska to the mid teens in north central Nebraska. Overnight lows are also a concern both Friday and Saturday nights where temperatures drop into the single digits. With some lingering stronger winds on Friday night, wind chill values will easily drop into the negative teens, potentially approaching 20 below in portions of north central Nebraska. While cold headlines are not in effect at this time, it will need to be considered over the next few forecast runs as the latest trends have been on the colder side of guidance. Wind chill values remain chilly on Saturday night, but will only drop into the negative single digits across portions of north central Nebraska.

Upper level ridging behind the departing trough will bring a return to dry conditions from Saturday through the middle of next week. After temperatures remain chilly on Saturday, they begin a gradual warming trend through next week. Highs will generally warm back into the upper 40s to low 50s in southwest Nebraska with cooler temperatures across north central in the upper 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Strong winds will be the main aviation concern over the next day. Northwest winds will increase by this afternoon with gusts up to 35 knots across the region. Any break across the south in strong winds this evening will be brief, with northwest gusts returning to near 30 knots through the overnight hours. Increasing winds continue into early Friday morning, with gusts up to 35 to 40 knots by sunrise with the strongest winds across northern Nebraska.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns are expected Friday afternoon as RH values drop and winds remain strong. Humidity will drop to near 20 percent across portions of southwest Nebraska on Friday afternoon. Northwesterly winds will also be gusting up to 55 to 60 mph during the afternoon. While the region will not quite be reaching criteria for Red Flag Warnings, the combination of strong winds, dry fuels, and marginally low RH values will create an environment favorable for near-critical to critical fire conditions. Have issued a Fire Weather Watch for the southern two zones (zone 219 and 210) for the time being. If confidence continues to increase in critical fire concerns, it may be upgraded in upcoming forecast cycles.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094. Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for NEZ210-219.