textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front tonight will bring gusty northerly winds to the area late tonight into Sunday morning.

- After near normal temperatures Sunday, readings will climb daily, peaking on Wednesday where record highs are possible.

- Cooler temperatures to end the week with highs in the 60s/lower 70s Thursday, 50s Friday and upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday.

- Mainly dry conditions expected over the next 7 days with a small chance for rain showers Sunday night/Monday morning. Any precipitation amounts will be very light.

- Fire weather concerns continue Monday through Thursday as near critical or critical fire conditions are possible.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure anchored over the SW CONUS and centered over southern Arizona. Ridging extended north of this feature into southern Saskatchewan and southern Alberta. West of the ridge axis, a shortwave trough of low pressure was noted along the Washington and northwestern Oregon coasts. Northwest of this shortwave trough, closed low pressure was noted in the Gulf of Alaska. East of the ridge axis, was a broad trough of low pressure which extended from Quebec, south to eastern portions of the Bahamas. At the surface, hot temperatures, clear skies and west winds, gusting up to around 25 MPH were present across western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from 83 degrees at Valentine and Gordon, to 93 degrees at Imperial and Broken Bow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Westerly winds will diminish slightly ahead of an approaching cold front during the early to mid evening hours. This will be followed by a strong cold FROPA overnight. This front will approach the SD/NE border around Midnight CDT, passing quickly south and clearing the forecast area in the 3 to 4 AM CDT time frame. Northerly winds immediately behind the front will be gusty with a 3 to 6 hour window of 40 to 50 MPH winds. Winds will then diminish from north to south during the morning hours Sunday. By afternoon, wind gust potential will fall to 10 to 20 MPH. Low temperatures tonight will be fairly mild given the degree of winds and mixing overnight with readings in the upper 30s to lower 40s forecast. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid to upper 50s in northern Nebraska, to the lower 60s over SW Nebraska. Minimum RH Sunday afternoon will range from 25 to 35 percent and with winds diminishing in the afternoon, fire weather concerns on Sunday appear to be marginal at best. Winds will diminish further Sunday night as high pressure builds into central and eastern Nebraska. Overnight on the western periphery of the surface high, weak mid level forcing will track into southwestern Nebraska. Mid level warm air advection may lead to a minor threat for precipitation in SW Nebraska. This area then transitions east Monday morning into central, then eastern Nebraska. For now, will handle the threat with low pops ~ 20-30 percent as the QPF forecast looks abysmal with this forcing. FWIW the latest NBM ensembles indicate less than a 15% chance for 0.05" QPF with this system and around a 20% chance for 0.01". Lows will be in the lower to middle 30s across the area so some snowflakes may mix in with rain early Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Southerly winds will increase across western and central Nebraska Monday as the surface high builds east into central and eastern Iowa. By afternoon, Bufkit soundings are indicating good mixing potential with wind gusts of 25 to 40 MPH Monday afternoon. With the increased southerly winds Monday, warm air advection will push highs into the mid to upper 60s for the western 2/3rds of the forecast area. Minimum RH by afternoon reaches 20 to 30 percent across the area. Given the gusty winds, near critical fire weather conditions appear probable at least across the western 2/3rds of the forecast area. More about this in the fire section below. Tuesday will feature warmer temperatures with highs reaching the 70s to near 80. An inverted trough will develop Tuesday afternoon, extending from the southern panhandle into northeastern Nebraska. In spite of minimum RH reaching 15 to 20 percent Tuesday afternoon the inverted trough will limit wind speeds alleviating near critical or critical fire conditions. By midweek, a northern stream shortwave will suppress the ridge across the west on Wednesday. With the ridge breaking down, very warm air will surge into western and central Nebraska, leading to high temperatures in the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s. The latest temp forecast Wednesday utilizes the 25th percentile of the NBM which calls for middle 80s for North Platte. Feel highs Wednesday will be well above the 25th%ile and feel upper 80s to around 90 is a better fit. Yesterday, based on the GFS soln, some mid 90s were not out of the question in far SW Nebraska. However, with the GFS now cooler with its forecast H85 temps ~ 2 to 4 C cooler today, upper 80s seem reasonable. As stated earlier, the current forecast is middle 80s for the North Platte area and feel this will need to be trended upward if statistical guidance continues to fall in line with the 50th to 75th %ile of the NBM forecast. With the very warm temps, low relative humidity and wind potential, critical fire weather conditions may develop for portions of the forecast area. More about that in the fire section below. A strong cold front will pass through the area Wednesday night. Highs on Thursday will be middle 60s to middle 70s. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 50s to lower 60s respectively. Mainly dry conditions are expected through the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

A strong cold front will pass through western and north central Nebraska tonight from 05Z to 08Z. A shift in wind direction to the north will occur with passage of this front. Wind gusts up to 35 to 40 KTS are possible during a 3 to 6 hour window behind the front. Winds will begin to slowly diminish Sunday morning with gusts up to 20 KTS possible around 18z Sunday. Skies will become scattered to broken at 25000 FT AGL through 12z Sunday with MVFR ceilings developing across north central NE Sunday morning with ceilings as low as 1800 FT AGL possible at the KVTN terminal after 13z Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Near critical or critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday through Thursday across the area. At this time, the greatest threat for critical conditions are Monday and Wednesday. Monday will feature minimum RH in the 18 to 28 percent range with afternoon wind gusts up to 40 MPH possible. Tuesday will see much lighter winds with afternoon gust potential up to 20 to 25 MPH and minimum RH of 15 to 25 percent. Wednesday will feature min RH of 13 to 23 percent with wind gusts of 15 to 25 MPH. With a cold front expected Wednesday night, initially was not too concerned about critical fire weather conditions Thursday. However, winds will be gusty behind the front Thursday and drier air behind the front will lead to min RH Thursday afternoon of 15 to 25 percent. Beyond Thursday, cooler temperatures will develop across the area, leading to min RH in the 20 to 30 percent range.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ204- 206-208>210-219.