textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- A prolonged period of above normal temperatures and gusty winds will lead to increased fire weather concerns through the week, particularly Thursday and Friday.

- A passing frontal boundary will bring potential for measurable rain (40-70%) across portions of western and central Nebraska Wednesday.

- Much colder temperatures arrive this weekend as strong Arctic high pressure settles in from the north.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Early this afternoon, northwest flow aloft was pushing high level clouds off the Northern Rockies over the High Plains. Outside of this, moisture remains quite limited across the region. The midday LBF RAOB sampled just 0.18" of precipitable water (PWAT), which is near the 10th percentile for this date in LBF's upper-air climatology. Residual snowpack continues to dwindle with continued mild temperatures and largely unimpeded sunshine. Most locations outside of central and eastern Nebraska have less than 1" currently on the ground. Temperatures across the area as of 230pm CST have exceeded the freezing mark and even reached the lower 60s in our western zones.

For tonight...a surface trough settling east off the higher terrain will move into our western zones by late this afternoon and clear the area by early Tuesday morning. This is being driven by a modest low pressure system moving along the North Dakota/Canada border. Westerly winds will remain elevated overnight and thus we have boosted low temperatures tonight. Values now range from the middle 20s where snowpack remains heaviest the low 30s elsewhere across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Can't rule out gusts reaching 25 to even 30 mph out of the west in the predawn hours Tuesday with the strongest of these occurring over the Sandhills.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Tuesday/Wednesday...a quick one-two set of mid-level disturbances will track across the Northern then Central Plains within the northwesterly flow. The first will draw a cool front of Pacific origin across the area early Tuesday. This will actually introduce a slight increase in low-level moisture. Dew points are likely to climb into the upper 20s and even lower 30s for much of Nebraska. This will offset the warmer temperatures as forecast highs climb into the 50s/60s each day with even a few locations making a run at the low 70s in far southwest Nebraska. Even so, fire weather concerns will increase each day as westerly winds strengthen. NBM probabilities show high likelihood of gusts exceeding 40 mph in our western zones each day, up to 80% Tuesday for the eastern Panhandle and up to 90% for a much larger coverage area on Wednesday. Even with the increased low-level moisture Tuesday, humidity values will fall to around 20% for our far south and southwest zones. How far east the wind gusts make it will be the limiting factor and will highlight near-critical conditions as a result. The second shortwave will have more direct impacts locally as a surface low takes shape over southwest South Dakota. Moisture should continue to increase as an atmospheric river takes aim across central California and crosses the Intermountain West. The result will be local dew points climbing into the upper 30s to lower 40s by midday as NAEFS guidance highlights water vapor transport exceeding the 90th percentile. Even with the anomalous mid-level moisture, lapse rates aloft should steepen and combined with high low-level moisture and mild temperatures will lead to negative lifted indices and modest instability. While this likely will fall short of full-on thunderstorms, this should lead to some convective elements with the passing low pressure and more showery precipitation. Ensemble probabilities remain muted for the local area but some deterministic solutions show more spotty precipitation with locally heavier amounts noted in QPF output. While the event still falls outside of the HREF domain, NAM Nest/HRRR show narrow plumes of heavier amounts in their latest solutions and lends confidence in showery/shallow convection based activity. How much of western Nebraska sees this activity remains the larger question and most deterministics contradict NBM probabilities and show largely dry conditions for much of western Nebraska outside far north central. Further southwest, stronger winds will develop as a narrow belt of h7 flow extends off the Laramie Range. As mentioned, NBM wind gust probabilities increase from Tuesday to Wednesday and gust potential exceeding 48 knots hits 50% in our western tier of counties. For now, confidence in seeing High Wind Warning (50+ knot) criteria being met is low but will advise subsequent shifts to monitor closely. Even with humidity not quite reaching Red Flag Warning criteria, the expected strong winds will prove problematic for any fire starts in the area.

Thursday/Friday...more significant fire weather conditions appear likely for the end of the work week. High pressure will stall across the Great Basin with strong mid-level flow continuing overhead. Downsloping flow will begin to advect dry air as the anomalous moisture content is shunted south thanks to a Pacific cool front. Afternoon dew points will fall into the teens to possibly single digits in our west as gusty winds develop each day. Though NBM gust probabilities fall off for Thursday, BUFKIT data still shows some potential for reaching 25 mph in our western zones. With current forecast humidity minimums in the upper teens, will continue to highlight elevated to near-critical. With forecast highs near the median value of NBM output, I don't anticipate much if any change to Thursday's values. Friday will be much more concerning as temperatures appear likely to increase with little to no change in low-level moisture. Deeper mixing will tap into stronger winds exceeding 2km AGL and momentum transfer should support gusts exceeding 30 mph for much of far western Nebraska. As it stands now, the forecast calls for critical conditions for most locations west of Highway 83 and later forecasts may require headlines to account for this. Adding to the concern is the current forecast of highs falls short of higher NBM percentile output by roughly 4-6F for the local area. This suggests current forecast humidity minimums of the low to middle teens could decrease further with subsequent forecasts. Folks should closely monitor later forecasts to stay up to date on the potential threat.

Saturday into next week...confidence has increased regarding an invasion of colder air from a strong Arctic front. Timing of this feature into western Nebraska remains somewhat in question though the lingering outlier solution from the GFS has now come into better agreement with persist ECMWF/GEM output. This suggests frontal passage (FROPA) sometime Saturday with a large variation in temperatures from north to south across the area. In fact, NBM MaxT standard deviations remain quite large at 10-18F for much of Nebraska. So confidence in more precise temperatures is limited at this time. Even so, it appears fairly certain that forecast high temperatures will decrease at least slightly for Saturday and perhaps more significantly for Sunday. Precipitation will likely accompany the FROPA with probabilities peaking later Saturday into Sunday (40- 60% for measurable precipitation). Of course with the incoming cooler air, precipitation type will likely see a change from rain to at least a rain/snow mix. For now, I will keep a vague mention until timing of cold air arrival as well as greatest PoPs can be sorted out. Any cold snap appears to be short lived with return southerly flow behind departing high pressure likely to return and temperatures rebounding appropriately for early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north central Nebraska today and tonight. A well mixed boundary layer this afternoon will allow for somewhat stronger southerly to southwesterly winds, generally around 15 knots. Gusty conditions are expected across north central Nebraska ahead of an advancing surface boundary this afternoon, with peak gusts around 25 to 30 knots. By this evening, winds are expected to take on a more southwesterly to westerly direction, becoming westerly overnight. A strengthening low level jet overnight brings strong northwesterly winds aloft across western and southwestern Nebraska, which will continue to bring LLWS concerns across portions of the region, including the KLBF terminal. At this time, expecting LLWS to remain south of KVTN. One more wind shift is expected mid morning, with winds shifting to northwesterly.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.