textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms, with locally heavy rainfall are possible from the panhandle into northwestern and northern Nebraska Thursday into Thursday night. There is a low end threat for severe storms.

- Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend into next week with the best chances for precipitation Saturday night.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The H5 analysis this morning has high pressure anchored over the southeastern CONUS. West of this feature, closed low pressure was located over southeastern Oregon. A trough extended south of this feature to approximately 300 miles west of Los Angeles CA. Downstream of this feature and upstream of the high, broad southwesterly flow extended from the southern half of California, northeast into the intermountain west and northern high plains. Within this flow, numerous disturbances were noted from the Four Corners, northeast into the central plains. Abundant mid and high level cloudiness extended from northwestern Mexico into the central and southern Rockies, as well as the central and northern plains. At the surface...a stationary front extended along the front range of Colorado, south-southeast into far southeastern Colorado. This feature then extended to the east and east-northeast across southern Kansas into central Indiana and eastern Great Lakes. North of the front, a broad shield of cloud cover extended from the western Sandhills into central and eastern Nebraska. West of highway 61, skies were generally clear. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 60 degrees at O'Neill, Ainsworth and Broken Bow, to 73 degrees at Gordon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Upper level low pressure over southeastern Oregon will drift east over the next 24 hours, only covering 200 to 300 miles. By 00z Friday the latest 12z GFS and EC soln have this feature roughly over northeastern California, northwestern Nevada and south central Oregon. At the same time, the upper level high over the southeastern CONUS, will retrograde west from the western Carolinas into Arkansas. Broad southwesterly flow aloft will allow lead disturbances to lift from the Four Corners into Colorado, eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. A weak disturbance will lift into southeastern Colorado and western Kansas overnight. Weak mid level warm air advection will increase from northwestern Kansas into south central Nebraska overnight increasing the threat for showers and thunderstorms overnight. ATTM the best chances will reside from far southern portions of the forecast area northeast into Custer County and the eastern Sandhills overnight. In addition to the threat for precipitation, low level easterly and southeasterly winds tonight will continue to advect low level moisture into the forecast area. Looking at the latest HRRR and NAM12 solns, there is a decent signal for fog tonight. This threat is mainly east of a line from Imperial, to Thedford, to Ainsworth. That being said, went ahead and introduced a mention of fog in these areas. With abundant moisture aloft and the threat for cloud cover, do not think dense fog will be an issue attm. On Thursday, a warm front will lift north into Southwestern Nebraska. How far north this gets on Thursday is still up in the air somewhat, however the spread between the NAM12, GFS and EC solns this morning has tightened some from what was forecast with yesterdays models. As a compromise between forecast solns, this warm front appears to make it to Interstate 80 Thursday afternoon. This boundary will lead to a wide variation in highs for Thursday. Readings will struggle to get out of the lower 70s north of the front, while south of the front, mid to upper 80s appear probable. Late Thursday into Thursday night, a lead disturbance will lift from Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle. As this feature lifts north northeast, a broad area of precipitation will develop over the panhandle and spread northeast into the overnight hours Thursday night. Looking at the NBM 6hr QPF probabilities ending at 1 AM Friday morning, there is a 50 to near 100% chance of exceeding 0.10" of qpf west of a line from Big Springs, to Mullen, to Springview. When this threshold is increased to 0.75", there is still a 40 to 50% probability of exceedance from Garden County northeast into Cherry County. That being said, categorical pops from the NBM forecast appear on track. With respect to heavy rain potential, the ingredients continue to be there. Forecast PWATS are running between 1.5 to 1.75" Thursday afternoon per the NAM12 and only slightly drier with the GFS. These PWAT's are 0.25 to 0.50" above the max climatology for mid September!. As was the case yesterday, the EC SOT and EFI forecast are leaning toward a heavy rain event from the panhandle into northern Nebraska and South Dakota with EFI's of 0.6 to 0.8 in the forecast area and a SOT around 1. It is important to note, there was a northward shift in this maximum SOT and EFI area in comparison to yesterday's runs. So in effect, the EC EFI and SOT forecast has trended further north with its heavy rain threat.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The frontal boundary will remain across the forecast area on Friday. ATTM, there are differences in the location of this feature with respect to model choice. The NAM soln drops this boundary into southern Nebraska, while the GFS has this front over the northern third of the forecast area. Like Thursday, high temperatures will vary widely across the FA and will be highly dependent on frontal position. Based on a compromise in frontal position-ie. EC soln, utilized the NBM for highs Friday which takes a middle of the road approach with respect to temps Friday. The upper level low will accelerate east Friday into Saturday, reaching eastern Wyoming by Sunday morning. Shortwaves in advance of this feature will lead to a threat for showers and thunderstorms Friday, Saturday and Sunday. ATTM, the greatest threat for precipitation appears to be Saturday night into Sunday morning. Beyond Sunday, a second trough of low pressure will track from the SW CONUS into the intermountain west early next week. This will bring a minor threat for precipitation Monday through Wednesday across the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Areas of IFR and perhaps LIFR will occur across southwest into central Nebraska this morning. These conditions should improve by late morning. Otherwise scattered late afternoon thunderstorms are expected across western and northern Nebraska. These will become more numerous, especially across the Sandhills and northern Nebraska this evening.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ025>029- 037-038-059-070-071.