textproduct: North Platte

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A cold front has cleared the area off to the east, with lingering precipitation over north central Nebraska ending early this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds persist in the wake of this boundary, with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour across the area.

For tonight, expect winds to quickly weaken after sunset as surface high pressure begins to move through the area by sunrise tomorrow morning. This will lead to weak winds overnight, and should promote temperatures cooling into the upper 30s to low 40s across the area. Any frost concerns look to remain limited at best, as high cloudiness begins to move into the area early tomorrow morning. Winds are also expected to become more south and southwesterly around sunrise tomorrow, as the surface high begins to exit off to the southeast of the area. This should limit any frost concerns across western Nebraska, and have opted to forego any frost headlines at this time.

As the aforementioned surface high continues to push off to the east of the area, the increasing southerly flow in its wake will lead to modest moisture return northwards into the area. Although dewpoints only are expected to be in the lower to middle 40s tomorrow afternoon, steep lapse rates aloft look to promote MLCAPE as high as ~500-750 J/kg across portions of southwest Nebraska into the Sandhills. Weak surface convergence near a surface trough in western Nebraska looks to be just enough to initiate scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon across portions of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Deep layer shear looks marginally supportive of organized updrafts (~20-30kts 0-6km Shear) and could allow for a stronger storm or two. The main threat looks to be gusty winds, as the large T/Td spreads lead to inverted-v thermodynamic profiles across the area. Storms quickly wane after sunset, as the boundary layer stabilizes and CIN increases. Lows tomorrow night fall into the middle to upper 40s as southerly flow persists.

Attention then turns to a more interesting setup for storms on Sunday afternoon and evening. The aforementioned southerly flow persists into Sunday, with dewpoints expected to climb into the middle to upper 50s across southwest into central Nebraska. By late afternoon, a surface trough will be positioned near the HWY 83 corridor, bisecting the area from southwest to northeast. As northwesterly flow strengthens aloft, shear increases to ~30-40kts and orients largely perpendicular to this surface boundary. Combine this with long hodographs and increasing MLCAPE (~1500-2000J/kg) and this points to a threat for a few supercells across portions of the area Sunday. Large hail looks to be the primary threat with any supercells, though a threat for damaging winds will likely also exist. This is supported in the recent SPC outlook update, with a marginal risk now in place for areas east of HWY 83 for Sunday. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a threat for significant hail (>2") is possible should discrete supercell mode be sustained Sunday evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Monday, mid-level heights will build and strengthen across the region. This will support south to southwest 700-850 mb flow and continued warm air advection across the area. Forecast 850 mb temperatures in the 25 to 28C range combined with near dry adiabatic lapse rates should support efficient mixing to the surface. Current NBM 50th percentile guidance shows highs in the mid to upper 80s across the area, though these values may be somewhat underdone. The NBM 75th and 90th percentiles support highs in the lower 90s, which appears more reasonable given the expected synoptic pattern and mixing potential. Southerly winds will increase through the day Monday, with sustained speeds generally ranging from 10 to 20 mph. However, with near adiabatic lapse rates extending through roughly 700 mb, stronger winds aloft should mix efficiently to the surface during peak heating. Despite the warm and dry conditions, recent wetting rainfall should help limit fire weather concerns at this time, though this will continue to be monitored over the next several days. Some model guidance also hints at isolated thunderstorm development Monday afternoon into Monday evening. However, weak mid and upper level flow should keep the severe weather threat low at this time. This will continue to be monitored, as any increase in deep layer flow could support a greater severe weather threat.

Tuesday, a southern stream trough is forecast to develop across the far southwestern United States while another northern stream trough digs into the northwestern United States. Ahead of the southern stream system, low-level moisture will begin increasing across the region once again. Despite increasing moisture, the strongest forcing is expected to remain south of the area across the southern Plains near the main upper trough. Temperatures Tuesday will likely remain above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, though increasing moisture may keep temperatures somewhat cooler than Monday. Fire weather concerns should remain limited due to higher low-level moisture, though strengthening southerly winds will continue to be monitored. Precipitation chances will largely depend on the eventual placement of the southern stream trough and where the strongest forcing develops.

Wednesday and beyond, a cutoff low is forecast to develop across the western United States while troughing persists across the northeastern United States. Between these features, a strong ridge is expected to remain anchored across the north-central United States, resulting in an omega block pattern through much of next week. While this pattern would generally favor warmer and drier conditions, the western trough may keep temperatures somewhat cooler by late week, with highs trending back into the 70s. Precipitation chances may also persist as disturbances ejecting from the western trough interact with increasing moisture across the region. Confidence in these details remains low, as precipitation potential will depend on how far east the western trough progresses and whether disturbances can continue moving beneath the blocking pattern.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Low cumulus clouds will persist into late afternoon across northern Nebraska, with periods of MVFR CIGs expected. By this evening, VFR will return for all terminals and is expected to persist through tomorrow afternoon.

Winds remain gusty from the northwest through sunset, with gusts of 25 to 35kts expected for all terminals. Winds then become light and variable overnight.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.