textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily and March monthly high temperature records are likely Saturday across the area as highs reach well into the 90s.

- Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the area for Saturday into Saturday night due to record high temperatures, minimum relative humidity in the single digits and gusty winds. A strong cold front overnight Saturday night will abruptly shift winds to the north.

- Above normal temperatures will continue well into next week with fire weather concerns greatest Monday and Wednesday. Near record or record high temperatures are possible Wednesday across the area.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

H5 analysis this morning has a high anchored over Arizona. Ridging extended north into the northern Rockies and the Idaho Panhandle. Downstream of this ridge, northwesterly flow extended from the Dakotas southeast to the Appalachians. Further east, a broad trough of low pressure extended from the Canadian Maritimes southwest to the Florida Peninsula. Northwest of the western CONUS ridge, low pressure was located over southwestern Alaska. At the surface this afternoon, high pressure was anchored over the central Rockies and intermountain west. Winds were generally from the west or northwest this afternoon and speeds were under 10 MPH. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 79 degrees at Gordon to 84 degrees at Broken Bow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Record high temperatures and critical fire weather conditions highlight the forecast over the next 36 hours across the area. Ridging aloft will begin to break down tonight across the western CONUS. Light winds tonight and a very dry airmass across the area, will allow lows to reach the upper 30s and lower 40s across the area. I did go ahead and lower min temps tonight from the inherited forecast. This was based on statistical guidance which has mid to upper 30s for LBF tonight. Valentine's statistical guidance was warmer than LBF and only a couple of degrees cooler than the inherited forecast. That being said, dropped lows across the board a degree or two, then lowered min temps further in the valley to bring the forecast more in line to the latest guidance. This led to lows in the upper 30s for LBF and lower 40s for VTN. Ridge breakdown will continue Saturday across the central and northern plains. This is in advance of a fast moving, shortwave disturbance which traverses the northern tier of states Saturday. This feature will eventually force a cold front through the area overnight Saturday night. In the meantime, hot air will push into the area Saturday in advance of the front with widespread 90s forecast for highs. For North Platte, MET and MAV guidance is 95 and 98 degrees respectively for highs Saturday. With the NBM 25 to 75 %ile range 95 to 98 degrees tomorrow, feel highly confident in our forecast high of 97 degrees. Not only will these forecast highs shatter daily record high temperatures for North Platte, Valentine, Imperial and Broken Bow, all time record high temperatures for March are also likely for these locations. For details, see the Climate section below. Record heat, a bone dry boundary layer and gusty winds in the afternoon will lead to critical fire weather conditions across all of western and north central Nebraska. See the fire weather section below for additional fire weather details. Winds will gradually diminish around sunset Saturday evening. However, a strong cold front will enter northern Nebraska late evening, crossing the forecast area by 3 AM CDT Sunday morning. Strong cold air advection with the frontal passage may lead to northerly wind gusts up to 45 MPH overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. The gusty winds will lead to a mild overnight across the area with low temperatures generally in the upper 30s in the north, to middle 40s in the south.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Gusty, northerly winds will continue across the area through at least the morning hours before cold air advection ends midday Sunday. High temperatures Sunday will be closer to normal, but still slightly above normal with readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Winds will then shift around to the south on Monday as surface high pressure builds into the central Great Lakes. Southerly winds will become gusty in the afternoon and combined with highs in the 70s and low relative humidity around 20 percent, will lead to near critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. Will re-assess model trends in the next 2 to 3 forecast packages to see if critical fire weather conditions appear likely. Temperatures will warm further on Tuesday with readings reaching the mid to upper 70s in SW and western Nebraska. Afternoon RH will reach 15 to 25 percent across the area. Winds do have the potential to be lighter Tuesday as an inverted trough of low pressure is present from western into north central Nebraska. Winds in the vicinity of this feature will be fairly light with the strongest winds generally from south central into far northeastern Nebraska. Wednesday has the potential to reach record highs across the area. Upper level ridging across the southwestern CONUS, will begin to break down Tuesday night into Wednesday. This is in response to a northern stream shortwave, which tracks from the NW CONUS into the northern Rockies. As this feature approaches the northern plains late Wednesday, it will force a cold front into NW South Dakota by 00z Thursday. In advance of this feature very warm air will push into the forecast area Wednesday. In fact, the latest deterministic GFS soln has forecast H85 temps for 00z Thursday 2 to 3 degrees warmer than what is forecasted for tomorrow afternoon. With the forecast H85 temps approaching 28 to 29C in SW Nebraska Wednesday, highs may easily reach the middle to upper 90s across the area. Looking at the latest EFI and SOT in the EC, there is a relatively decent probability of record high temps on Wednesday. For perspective, based on the latest GFS soln, H85 temps for North Platte Thursday afternoon are 28C which is 1 to 2 degrees cooler than what is forecast for tomorrow afternoon! Mixing this down to the surface, would lead to highs in the middle to upper 90s over SW Nebraska based on these forecast H85 temps. The current forecast for Wednesday has highs ranging from the upper 70s in the northeast to upper 80s in the southwest and is on the low end of the NBM ensemble envelope. If the deterministic models continue the trend of H85 temps in the upper 20s C, no doubt, the NBM forecast highs will trend upward. Forecast highs and daily record highs for Wednesday are highlighted below in the climate section. In addition to heat, gusty west winds, and low relative humidity, will lead to a high probability for critical fire weather conditions Wednesday. A strong cold front will pass through the forecast area Wednesday night, leading to an abrupt wind shift and gusty northerly winds. This will lead to highs in the 60s Thursday and 50s for Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Expect mainly clear skies over the next 24 hours with a few high clouds possible around 25000 FT AGL. Winds will be westerly today at 10 to 20 KTS, becoming light and variable at under 10 KTS tonight. Winds will become southwesterly and westerly Saturday morning with speeds ranging from 10 to 15 KTS. Some gusts may approach 20 KTS after 17Z Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Over the next several days, unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions, will lead to elevated to near critical or critical fire weather conditions for all or portions of the forecast area Saturday through Wednesday.

At this time, critical fire weather conditions are expected for Saturday across the area. A red flag warning is in effect late Saturday morning through overnight Saturday night. High temperatures Saturday will reach well into the 90s with widespread min RH of 7 to 13 percent. Winds will become gusty from the west in the afternoon reaching up to 30 MPH. An abrupt wind shift will begin over northern Nebraska late evening. This wind shift will reach southern portions of the forecast area by 2 AM. Behind the front, northerly winds may gust up to around 45 MPH before diminishing somewhat Sunday morning.

Near critical to critical fire weather conditions appear likely for Monday through Wednesday. Minimum RH will low all 3 days with RH of 15 to 25% expected. Winds will be strongest on Monday and Wednesday and those days have the highest potential to reach critical fire weather conditions. Wednesday right now, looks probable for a red flag warning given the high temperatures and good potential for wind gusts over 25 MPH.

CLIMATE

Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)

Tomorrow 03/21 Wednesday 03/25

North Platte 97/86 (1910) 89/84 (1907) Valentine 93/84 (1910) 83/85 (1993) Broken Bow 94/83 (1997) 85/83 (2004,1956,1908) Imperial 96/87 (1907) 90/85 (1907)

Forecast highs at North Platte, Imperial, Broken Bow and Valentine Saturday would break all-time March records on Saturday which are 91, 89, 92 and 87 degrees respectively.

Also of note, overnight lows on Friday night into Saturday morning may break records for being daily warmest low temperatures. The current forecast low on Saturday morning at North Platte is 40, with the previous warmest low temperature being 42, which was achieved in 1911, 1916, and 1946. For Valentine, the forecast of 43 would be just shy of the record of 44 degrees set in 1907.

For perspective, North Platte has never hit 100 degrees in March, April or May. In fact the earliest North Platte has hit 100 degrees is June 6th. Broken Bow and Imperial have hit 100 degrees as early as May and Valentine has hit 100 degrees in May and the earliest occurrence of 100 degrees was April 30th 1992.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ Saturday to 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.