textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday across the area a a red flag warning is in effect for the area.

- Near critical-and possibly critical fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday and Wednesday across the area. On Tuesday, fire weather concerns are greatest east of highway 83, while on Wednesday the main concerns are west of highway 83. There may be fire weather concerns late in the week. This will be dependent on whether or not gulf moisture can push into the area from the south.

- Well above seasonal temperatures are expected to last all week and into the weekend. Some uncertainty remains in the late week precipitation forecast, which will largely depend on a potential plume of Gulf moisture.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over eastern Ontario. A trough extended south of this feature into the eastern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. West of the low, ridging extended from northern Nevada, north into eastern portions of the NW Territories of Canada. Immediately west of the ridge, disturbances were noted over northern British Columbia with a second disturbance located roughly 300 miles off the coast of northern Oregon. Northwesterly flow extended from Alberta and Saskatchewan to the Dakotas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana and northeastern Colorado. Within this flow a decent mid level disturbance was noted over Northeastern Colorado. This disturbance led to light precipitation over portions of east central Colorado and NW Kansas earlier today. Scattered showers have developed over the past 1 to 2 hours across the area. With ceilings generally above 8000 FT AGL, little to none of this precipitation is reaching ground level. Temperatures as of 3 PM CDT ranged from 68 degrees at Gordon to 72 degrees at North Platte and Ainsworth.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Surface high pressure will drift south from Kansas into Oklahoma overnight. Winds will start out from the west this evening, shifting to the southwest overnight. With clear skies and fairly light winds, overnight lows will reach the lower 40s with readings slightly cooler in the Platte River Valley. Overnight, a mid level shortwave will track from northwestern Washington State east along the US/Canadian border. By 12z Monday this feature is expected to be over northwestern Montana. Downstream of this feature, surface low pressure will deepen over southern Saskatchewan and northeastern Montana. A surface trough will extend south of the low into eastern Montana and northern Wyoming by daybreak Monday. Low pressure will then track into western North Dakota during the day on Monday with a surface trough extending south into the western Nebraska Panhandle. East of the trough and north of the surface high over eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, a tightening surface pressure gradient will lead to breezy conditions across the area Monday. Looking at the latest bufkit soundings, both the NAM and GFS solns show gust potential of 25 to 35 MPH east of the panhandle Monday afternoon. This is also supported by the latest NBM ensembles which show 80 to 100% chance of exceedance of 25 MPH wind gusts Monday afternoon. Highs Monday will reach into the middle to upper 80s across the entire forecast area, and with dry boundary layer conditions in place across the area, minimum RH Monday afternoon will range from 10 to 20 percent across the area. This will lead to widespread critical fire weather conditions across the area Monday afternoon. More about that in the fire section below. Surface low pressure will track into central Minnesota Monday night, forcing a cold front into northern Nebraska late evening. This front will migrate south overnight and is expected to be just off to the southeast of the forecast area at 12z Tuesday. Winds in advance of the front Monday evening and behind the front overnight, will lead to mild overnight lows around 50 degrees.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Highs behind the exiting cold front will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be gusty behind the front Tuesday morning, relaxing in the west by afternoon as high pressure noses into the western Dakotas and northeastern Wyoming. Across the northeast, gusty winds may persist into the afternoon, leading to near-critical and possibly critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon as minimum RH's will bottom out around 20 percent. Further west, winds are expected to peak during the morning into midday relaxing in the afternoon. Surface high pressure will drop southeast from the Dakotas into Nebraska Tuesday night, tracking into eastern Nebraska Wednesday. West of the high, gusty southerly winds and decent warm air advection will develop across the western half of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. As was the case yesterday, the latest NBM ensemble forecast does have a strong signal for 25+MPH wind gusts west of highway 83 Wednesday afternoon. With highs expected to be in the middle 80s and min RH bottoming out around 15 to 20 percent, red flag potential looks decent Wednesday afternoon across the west.

An upper level trough will enter northern California Wednesday night. Down stream of this feature, ridging aloft will migrate onto the central plains from the Rockies. With high pressure off to the east and a deepening surface trough along the front ranges of Colorado and Wyoming, southerly winds will increase Wednesday night into Thursday. A tongue of low level moisture, as depicted in the deterministic GFS and EC solns, lifts north into the forecast area overnight Wednesday night into Thursday. Both these solns advertise dew points reaching into the 50s across the area. However, the latest NBM is much more pessimistic with moisture return and has much drier and warmer temps for the forecast area Thursday. With the ridge breakdown Wednesday night into Thursday, highs Thursday reach well into the upper 80s/lower 90s per the latest NBM guidance. These highs are plausible given forecast dew points in the 40s for Thursday. If the NBM soln were to verify, the combination of winds and low RH would lead to possibly critical fire weather conditions Thursday, and again on Friday. With the deterministic solns being consistent with their moisture return, will mention a possible fire weather threat Thursday and Friday highlighting uncertainties with moisture return. As for precipitation chances Thursday/Friday with the moisture return: The latest NBM is very pessimistic with precipitation chances Thursday and Friday. No surprise here with it being drier. As for the GFS and EC solns, there is a strong cap indicated Thursday afternoon with the best instability aloft well off to the west of the area. That being said, with the NBM dry and the noted CAP in place, am alright with a predominately dry forecast for Thursday into Friday. Forecast confidence with respect to precipitation chances falls further this upcoming weekend. Both solns develop a fairly low amplitude pattern across the western CONUS. However, they diverge significantly with the degree of low level moisture return across the area. The GFS remains fairly dry, in line with the NBM, while the EC soln pushes a second shot of gulf moisture into the area next Sunday developing precipitation across the area. As for highs, the current NBM forecast has highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s next weekend which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for mid May.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through Monday morning. Surface will be light, generally less than 10 kts. For cloud cover, some diurnal cumulus this afternoon will give away to clear skies tonight into Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Have upgraded the fire weather watch to a red flag warning for all of western and north central Nebraska for Monday. Temperatures will surge into the mid to upper 80s across the area with gusty southwesterly winds developing. Was concerned about a surface trough anchored over the panhandle, which may limit winds some on Monday, however, feel this feature is depicted far enough west with the latest AM model solns to be a non factor in winds across the area Monday afternoon. The latest NBM ensemble probabilistic forecast has a 80 to 100% chance of 25+ MPH wind gusts across almost the entire forecast area Monday afternoon which lends additional support to a RFW. Minimum RH will range from around 10 percent in the west to around 20 percent in the east. Winds will continue into the overnight Monday night as a cold front passes through the area. This will limit RH recovery to 50 to 60 percent Tuesday morning. Fire weather concerns will continue through at least Wednesday across the area. On Tuesday, northwesterly winds behind an exiting cold front will be gusty CWA wide Tuesday morning. Winds will begin to relax from west to east Tuesday afternoon with the strongest gusts over the far eastern forecast area. In these areas, ensembles indicate a strong potential for 25 MPH wind gusts Tuesday afternoon. This would mainly impact zone 209 as minimum RH flirts with 20 percent. On Wednesday, gusty southerly winds will develop across the western half of Nebraska. Strong warm air advection and highs in the mid 80s will lead to minimum RH of 15 to 20 percent across the area. Winds have the best potential to reach critical RFW criteria along and west of highway 83.

Beyond Wednesday, the fire weather forecast becomes problematic Thursday and Friday given model differences between the latest GFS/EC solns and the NBM forecast. There is decent forecast confidence with respect to a ridge breakdown Thursday into Friday. Highs Thursday will reach upper 80s to lower 90s across the area. Critical or near-critical fire weather conditions will be highly dependent on whether or not low level moisture return Wednesday night materializes. If this does, min RH's will be too high for fire headlines. If it does not, near critical and possibly critical fire weather conditions look probable for Thursday and possibly Friday.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.