textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to high confidence in severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with damaging winds and hail being the main threats.

- Moderate to high confidence in a continued near-daily severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday and Thursday.

- High confidence in mild temperatures through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Another round of convection is possible late this afternoon and evening as a weak front moves into portions of northern and north central Nebraska. Overall instability of the region is moderate with CAPE up to 2000 J/kg and lapse rates of 6 to 7 C/km. Despite this, shear remains relatively minimal (generally less than 30 knots). Still, any thunderstorm development will have the potential for some strong wind gusts (up to 65 mph) as well as some briefly severe hail (1 to 1.5 inches). Storms initiate across South Dakota and the Panhandle by late afternoon into early evening and drift eastward through the evening hours pushing out of the region from west to east by late evening with the main area of concern generally remaining across northwest Nebraska (Pine Ridge region). Some lingering, sub-severe storms may continue across the eastern half (east of US-83) of the forecast area through early Wednesday morning. There is some concern in the agreement amongst model guidance making confidence in storm development and strength on the lower side. Regardless, any storms that can develop in this environment, will likely become severe although locations is uncertain at this time.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Heading into the extended period, the active weather pattern will continue as a series of shortwaves and associated fronts continue to track through Nebraska creating near-daily rain and thunderstorm chances through the end of the week.

For Wednesday, while the set-up remains similar to Tuesday, the severe threat moves slightly east. Overall, the severe threat should mostly remain north across South Dakota, but some decent instability (steep low level lapse rates, moderate CAPE, and wind shear) will still exist across north central Nebraska. This may lead to some isolated to scattered storms to develop as far south as the Sandhills. Development is generally expected to start off isolated by late afternoon before congealing into a line by mid-evening. This environment will be favorable for large hail and strong wind gusts early, transitioning over to a mostly wind threat by mid to late evening.

Thursday brings another potential for severe storms as another shortwave pushes into the region. A frontal boundary combined with significant instability across the region will provide enough support for convective initiation across portions of northern Nebraska by late afternoon. While details for this system is till a little uncertain, current thinking is that storms will initialize across South Dakota and the western Panhandle and slowly propagate to the east and southeast entering into northern Nebraska and the Sandhills by mid-evening. Any storms that can develop, will have the potential for very large hail as well as damaging winds. Further details on this system will be provided in future forecasts.

Temperatures through the weekend remain above normal as continued warm air advection pushes into the central Plains. Highs will remain in the 80s with lows in the 50s through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Some stronger east southeast winds will gust up to 25 knots this afternoon in advance of the next weather system arriving tonight. Rain and thunderstorms will develop to the west and push into north central Nebraska this evening. Confidence is greatest that storms will impact northern Nebraska including KVTN where strong, erratic winds as well as some small hail will be possible. Further to the south, while confidence is lower in thunderstorm development, still think an isolated shower or two will impact areas into south central Nebraska as far south as I-80. Conditions will gradually improve across the region through the morning hours with gusty southerly winds up to 25 knots possible again during the day.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.