textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns on Friday

- Strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening

- Additional rain and thunderstorms are expected Sunday (50-80%) and Monday (60-90%), with some severe potential possible, before rain potential wanes for Tuesday through the rest of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Upper level flow turns more zonal Friday and another day of temperatures above normal with highs in the 80s to low 90s. There will be some elevated to near critical fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. At this time fire weather concerns should remain below RFW criteria. Although min RH will be around 9 to 13 percent across the Sandhills into western and southwest Nebraska, winds are expected to remain mostly light. The exception is across portions of western Nebraska where bufkit soundings suggest slightly stronger winds, with gusts up to 25 mph or greater. The stronger winds will be "out of sync" however with the lowest min RH and winds are expected to diminish by early afternoon.

There may be a chance for an isolated thunderstorm late Friday afternoon and evening. Confidence however is very low in seeing any shower/thunderstorm activity for the area, as the greater environment looks to remain to the east of the area. Have kept limited PoPs around 15 percent, the latest CAM models have backed off of storm development for the LBF CWA, but continue to show a signal for storm development just to the east of the area where the boundary is expected to remain. However, given the uncertainty decided to leave the 15 percent pops for parts of the eastern portion of the CWA. Another main concern is moisture return for tomorrow is low across much of western and north central Nebraska with dew points less than 40 degrees. If a storm were to develop, the main concern would be strong winds and hail.

Concern then turns to Saturday, as a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather is expected. Flow will become more southwesterly and will see moisture increase during the day. Dew points will reach the upper 40s to 50s across portions of southwest Nebraska into the southern Sandhills. MU CAPE values will reach near 1000 to 1800 J/kg by 18z Saturday. The environment will be favorable for supercells as 0 to 6 km shear values will be around 40 to 45 kts and lapse rates steepen by mid afternoon through the evening for most of western and north central Nebraska. The main hazards with storm development will be strong winds, large hail and can't rule out a tornado.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Saturday Night...the latter half of Saturday will potentially contain a few rounds of thunderstorms. The first, lower confidence event, would occur along the warm front set to stretch from near LBF to ODX to TQE. This activity, dependent on location relative to this frontal boundary, would likely be capable of all severe hazards. Later in the evening, a second round will likely develop to the west within moist upslope flow off the Front Range in the vicinity of the I-25 corridor and more local orographic features. This potential is highlighted well by recent NAM/ECWMF/SREF guidance. While somewhat removed from the higher instability of the open warm sector further east, similar low-level moisture with 0-1km mixing ratios exceeding 9 g/kg will nose into northeast Colorado. This influx of richer moisture coincident with larger synoptic lift via the approaching troughing will lead to more expansive thunderstorm development. Instability will remain strong with MUCAPE values exceeding 2000 j/kg and easterly surface flow beneath moderately strong mid-level flow will promote strong deep-layer shear along a convectively reinforced east-west density boundary. How far south this boundary sinks into southwest Nebraska is somewhat in question but overall thinking is it should settle south closer to the NE/KS border. This suggests a fairly stable boundary layer locally with MU parcels rooted in the h8 to h7 layer. With strong shear and long/straight hodographs, splitting elevated supercells appear the favored storm mode. This suggests large hail (primary) with strong outflow winds (secondary) the main concerns. The latest SPC Day 2 Outlook maintains a Slight Risk for much of the area while introducing significant hatching for both (2"+ diameter hail and 80+ mph gusts) and see little reason to stray from this thought. While non-zero, the tornado threat is limited to 2% and likely favors early daytime activity that is more apt to being surface based. Still though, favorable 0-3km shear vectors favorably oriented with any potential MCS will support brief QLCS tornadoes. With anomalous moisture quality in place prior to storm development, heavy rainfall will be possible with activity. Of course with recent drought conditions any rainfall is certainly welcome, but, some extended CAM guidance hints at 0.50"/hour rates or greater in spots. This may lead to some ponding water and visibility issues within the heavier downpours but widespread hydro issues are not anticipated. Thunderstorms should remain fairly progressive largely due 30+ knots of steering flow. Forecast soundings show anticipated storm motion of similar magnitude and this will further limit any prolonged heavy rain threat. NBM probabilities show reasonably high confidence (50-60%) in seeing rainfall amounts exceed 0.25" but discrepancies in placement between EPS/GEFS solutions and the splotchy nature of the majority of CAM solutions keeps confidence in precise locations and rainfall amounts limited at this time. Activity should depart to the east after Midnight.

Sunday/Sunday Night...another shortwave impulse appears likely to eject through northeast Colorado ahead of the parent trough which appears likely to slowly pivot through the Great Basin. Secondary low pressure will form over central Colorado with pressure falls extending east towards the High Plains of western Nebraska and Kansas. As a northern low pressure center crosses the Dakotas, a cool front will dive south and enter our western zones early in the day. This will further define a converging line stretching somewhere from southwest through north central Nebraska. Increasing lift at the surface as the boundary is pinched should lead to increasing thunderstorm potential by late afternoon/evening. Confidence in precisely where this boundary sets up is limited and the implications on the forecast for the day is fairly large. Behind this boundary, in northwesterly flow, temperatures are a large uncertainty with deterministic solutions showing nearly 10-15F differences in afternoon high temperature guidance. Locales in closer proximity to this boundary (our eastern zones) may still see a severe weather threat realized with highs closer to the 80s and lower 90s, but cooler air infiltrating our western zones may hinder this threat somewhat. Confidence in how things precisely play out remains low but folks across central and north central Nebraska should remain aware of a threat for severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and well into the evening.

Monday/Monday Night...the main trough is expected to eject onto the Plains during the day with the strongest upper-level dynamics likely crossing western Nebraska. This should lead to fairly expansive rain and thunderstorm potential for the Panhandle into the western Sandhills. Inherited model blend PoPs shows 70%+ west of a Big Springs to Ainsworth line and this lines up reasonable well with EPS/GEFS probability to exceed 0.50" for the calendar day (40%+/20%+ respectively). While temperatures will certainly be much cooler, similarly cooler temperatures aloft will likely be enough to promote some instability and a continuation of thunderstorm potential. While a rogue stronger storm cannot be ruled out, the greater threat will remain across eastern Nebraska where a greater overlap of strong instability (MUCAPE > 3500 j/kg) and strong deep-layer shear vectors are more favorably oriented across the warm-sector. The current forecast calls for upper 40s in the northwest but closer to middle 70s in the southeast. Any change in frontal boundary progression, whether faster or slower, could lead to fairly significant changes to the temperature outlook so folks are advised to continue monitoring later forecasts for up-to-date information. Temperatures within moderately strong cold air advection are likely to fall below the freezing mark for many locations west of Highway 83. As precipitation lingers into early Tuesday, some locations may see a short changeover to at least a rain/snow mix. Most if not all precipitation should depart to the north by daybreak with little if any wintry impacts.

Tuesday and beyond...troughing will lift north and east through the upper Midwest and into southeastern Canada. Heights will begin to rise by midweek as weak ridging forms over the Gulf into central Mexico. The extended pattern remains fairly convoluted with deterministics showing sizable variability for the Central CONUS. Overall though, relative zonal flow appears likely to become established with a lack of any more noteworthy systems traversing the area. This supports moderating temperatures and largely dry conditions. While periodic low-end precipitation chances may dot the forecast, extended ensemble guidance remains fairly pessimistic on seeing a more significant event with day-to-day probabilities of realizing 0.01" or more QPF limited to 25% or less. EPS/GEFS solutions are fairly noisy but each show about 33-50% of their individual members showing some quantity of moisture any one day in the mid-range. Even so, mean output from each solution is quite low so the prospect for widespread beneficial rainfall appears limited at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Northwest winds may approach 20 knots at KLBF this afternoon, becoming light northeast this evening. SKC this afternoon, becoming SCT250 tonight. SCT150 BKN200 Saturday morning. Easterly winds Saturday morning increase, with gusts approaching 20 knots by the end of the TAF period.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.