textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy, dense fog will be possible overnight into the mid morning hours across most of western and north central Nebraska. Visibility under one mile will be possible at times. - Slightly warmer than seasonal temperatures are expected this week, especially during the overnight hours. Highs are mostly expected to remain in the mid to upper 60s, though low 70s will be possible.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday, with scattered rainfall possible Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will remain in the 60s through much of the period.

- A more active weather pattern may develop early next week, bringing the potential for more widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 458 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Chase, Deuel, Perkins, and Keith counties this morning. Recent NDOT camera imagery has indicated areas of dense fog developing across portions of southwest Nebraska, with model guidance also supporting continued fog development through the early morning hours. Visibilities may fall to one-quarter mile or less at times, with fog expected to gradually dissipate later this morning as daytime mixing increases.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

An upper level shortwave that was responsible for our recent precipitation has lifted to the northeast, tracking across eastern North Dakota. Another upper level trough is observed tracking across the northwestern United States, with the trough axis currently located across western Montana. This advancing trough is expected to remain just to the north of the region, tracking another surface low across the Dakotas, largely remaining to the north of western Nebraska. However, this system will still have some influence on our weather the next few days, as warmer air is pulled into the region.

A cool, damp start to the day is expected, as low layer stratus and patchy fog persist through the overnight hours. Latest guidance continues to suggest dewpoints remain just above the freezing mark across most of the region, so have adjusted overnight lows to reflect this. Plenty of low level moisture remains available given the recent rainfall, with very light surface winds overnight and fairly stable conditions aloft. This will set up potential for patchy dense fog overnight, lasting into the mid morning hours across most of the region. Latest probabilistic guidance suggests the best chances for dense fog will remain along and south of Interstate 80, where there is a 70 percent chance of seeing visibility under half a mile for a few hours. However, there is still around a 40 percent chance the rest of the region could see visibility less than one mile in the morning fog. However, some uncertainty remains, given the stratus layer aloft. Will continue to keep a close eye on overnight observations to determine whether a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed or not.

As fog dissipates and the stratus layer begins to erode, expecting warmer temperatures to arrive by this afternoon, with highs pushing into the upper 50s to lower 60s. This will partly be aided by the low tracking across the Dakotas, as we sit in the region of warm air advection. However, with this low tracking across the Dakotas, we could also see a few hours of gusty winds, mainly along and north of Highway 2. Southerly to southwesterly gusts of 25 to 30 mph may be expected through the afternoon hours.

By tomorrow night, southerly flow continues across the region, which will help keep dewpoints slightly elevated through the night. This, combined with mostly southerly to southwesterly surface winds and cloudy skies will keep our overnight lows on the warmer side. For reference, typical overnight lows for late October across western Nebraska are generally around the upper 20s. However, with this plume of higher dewpoints, we may well remain in the mid 40s, almost 15 degrees warmer than usual. May also see some light rain showers generated by the warm air advection across portions of southwest and central Nebraska late night into the very early morning hours. However, not expecting much precipitation out of these showers.

Wednesday, warm air advection continues across the region, which may bring us some of our warmest temperatures throughout the week. While highs are mostly expected to reach at least the upper 60s, there is decent potential for most of the area to reach the lower 70s for a bit on Wednesday afternoon. Much will depend on the timing of a cold front arriving late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. If this arrives slightly sooner, highs in the 70s are less likely. While not expecting any precipitation with this front, we may see some additional gusty winds, particularly across portions of the Panhandle and western Sandhills, where afternoon gusts of 25 to 30 mph are possible. As the front passes through the evening, skies are expected to remain clear, which combined with the cooler air advecting in, should allow for slightly cooler overnight lows. Expecting lows should drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s, and though while colder than Tuesday night, still remain above average for late October.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 201 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Thursday, a longwave trough will become established across the western United States and Pacific Northwest as a negative PNA pattern begins to develop. Downstream of this trough, upper-level ridging will amplify across the central United States, resulting in increasing 500-mb heights and generally westerly flow aloft across the region. With the ridge remaining the dominant feature across the central and northern Plains, increasing subsidence should support mainly dry conditions through the day Thursday. Warmer temperatures within the lower to middle levels will also support afternoon highs in the middle to upper 60s across much of the area. With surface high pressure remaining nearby, winds should remain relatively light, with overnight lows generally in the middle to upper 40s. Friday, a southern-stream shortwave disturbance is forecast to approach the region ahead of the broader longwave trough across the western United States. Increasing southeasterly low-level flow will support moisture advection into the central Plains, while increasing mid- and upper-level moisture accompanies the approaching disturbance. Recent model guidance has begun to show a stronger signal for precipitation development as increasing moisture overlaps with forcing for ascent ahead of the shortwave. At this time, precipitation appears more likely to remain scattered in coverage, with the better potential favoring central and eastern Nebraska. However, uncertainty remains regarding how far west precipitation may develop, and trends will continue to be monitored over the next several forecast cycles. Highs Friday should remain in the lower to middle 60s, with overnight lows generally in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Saturday into Sunday, the western longwave trough will gradually begin progressing eastward, particularly by late weekend, resulting in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft across the central Plains. With increased moisture remaining across the region, subtle disturbances embedded within the southwesterly flow may provide additional opportunities for precipitation through the weekend. However, confidence in the timing, coverage, and location of precipitation remains low given continued differences among model guidance.

By early next week, attention turns toward the potential for a more organized storm system as the western trough begins ejecting eastward into the central United States. Both the ECMWF/EPS and GFS/GEFS suites generally support the development of a closed upper- level low, though considerable differences remain regarding its eventual track, timing, and intensity. The ECMWF/EPS suite currently favors a more northerly track, which could bring the stronger forcing for ascent farther north across the central and northern Plains. In contrast, the GFS/GEFS suite favors a more southerly evolution, potentially shifting the axis of more widespread precipitation farther south and east. Given the relatively amplified and blocky upper-level pattern, uncertainty remains high regarding how quickly the system will progress eastward and where the greatest precipitation potential will ultimately develop. Nevertheless, confidence is gradually increasing in a more active pattern by early next week, with the potential for more widespread precipitation as the upper-level system approaches. Temperatures should remain generally in the lower to middle 60s through much of the weekend, with a cooling trend possible early next week as the storm system moves into the region. Highs may fall into the 40s and 50s, though the magnitude and timing of the cooling will depend on the eventual track and evolution of the system.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Low stratus and fog will continue to hamper aviation operations early Tuesday morning for western and north central Nebraska.

Beneath the second of two upper level disturbances, now departing to the east, expansive stratus and fog was noted across the region. Visibilities were impacted more significantly across southwest Nebraska with less than one mile being reported in spots. This may creep east further towards KLBF but visibility impacts of that magnitude are not expected. That said, low CIGs promoting widespread IFR and LIFR conditions should continue for the first few hours of the forecast period. Some improvement is possible at KLBF this afternoon and more likely at KVTN before conditions degrade again this evening into early Wednesday morning.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for NEZ056>058- 069.