textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- There is high confidence (>80%) that overnight lows will fall below 0C tonight and again Tuesday morning across all of western and north central Nebraska.

- Precipitation chances tonight into Monday morning, with another chance Tuesday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday into Wednesday due to warmer, drier, and breezy conditions.

- Unsettled conditions return to western Nebraska mid-week through next weekend, though chances are low (<30%) for rainfall amounts of greater than 0.25" over a 24 hour period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Surface high pressure remains south of the area and will continue to move out. Westerly to northwesterly winds continue through this afternoon into the evening, with the strongest winds across the northeast portion of the forecast area. Even with the gusty winds this afternoon across north-central Nebraska, the fire weather threat will remain low as RH values will reach the 25 to 30 percent range. In southwest Nebraska, RH values will fall to 15 to 20 percent, but lighter winds will keep the fire weather threat low there as well.

Tonight, a shortwave with track to the northeast of the forecast area across Minnesota into Iowa. This will lead to a backdoor cold front pushing through the area overnight, shifting winds to the northeast and leading to lows in the the upper 20s to low 30s area- wide. Behind this frontal passage, mid-level frontogenesis and warm air advection will increase, especially across the northeast portion of the forecast area into eastern Nebraska. This forcing will support an increased chance for precipitation overnight into Monday morning. With the best lift being overnight into early Monday morning, precipitation will likely fall as snow. Precipitation and snowfall amounts are expected to remain light, with the HREF and NBM ensembles showing only a 15 to 20 percent chance of QPF exceeding 0.05 inches over the next 24 hours. Accumulating snowfall is also not expected, with probabilities of snowfall exceeding 0.5 inches remaining in the 5-10 percent range. Once again best chance for any precipitation will be across the northeast portion of the forecast area, with POPs of 20 to 30 percent. The mid level forcing will then exit the region Monday afternoon, putting an end to any precipitation chances. Cloud cover is expected to linger behind the cold front, especially across north-central Nebraska, along with strengthening easterly winds. Highs will likely remain in the 40s across north-central Nebraska, while areas farther southwest should reach the low to upper 50s.

On Tuesday, another weak disturbance will track into the area with associated mid-level WAA and frontogenesis. This will bring another chance for precipitation, this time mainly across western and north- central Nebraska. Once again, precipitation amounts are expected to remain light, with NBM ensembles showing probabilities of QPF exceeding 0.10 inches in the 15 to 25 percent range. The highest probabilities remain across eastern Nebraska. With the best chances for precipitation occurring during the morning hours Tuesday, wintry precipitation is possible. Precipitation type remains uncertain, but with light QPF expected, any impacts would likely remain limited. Trends will continue to be monitored.

Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 40s in the northeast portion of the area to the 50s and upper 60s farther southwest. Some elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are possible Tuesday afternoon mainly across southwest Nebraska, as RH values fall as low as 20-25 percent along with stronger wind gusts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 205 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Moderate confidence exists for the slow eastward progression of an upper-level trough from the Pacific coast into the inter-mountain west during the mid-to-late week period. Analysis of global ensembles clusters suggests two primary large-scale outcomes stemming from this evolution: 1) The formation of a closed low near the west coast, which would result in greater amplification of the downstream ridge over the Rockies and Plains; or 2) A less-amplified trough reaching the inter-mountain west, leading to associated height falls and southwest flow aloft over the Plains late week. Given the current possibility of both scenarios, confidence remains moderate regarding the coverage and resultant amounts of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) across the plains of western and north central Nebraska. Nevertheless, it is fairly certain that the late week and next weekend will feature unsettled conditions with the possibility of periodic showers and/or thunderstorms. Thermal profiles suggest very little indication of freezing precipitation and/or snow. National Blend of Models (NBM) probabilities generally range from 20-40% for precipitation amounts less than a tenth of an inch per 24 hour period, commencing Friday and persisting into early the following week. Probabilities for amounts exceeding a quarter of an inch per 24-hour period are exceeding low (generally less than 5%). Therefore, while unsettled weather is anticipated, widespread soaking rains are not currently forecast. Monitoring of instability parameters will be necessary as the event approaches, as the development of thunderstorms could significantly alter the QPF and Probability of Precipitation (POP) forecasts. At this time, ESAT tables do not indicate significant concerns, though they point to a potential instability anomaly on Saturday and possibility Sunday across western and central portions of Nebraska.

Irrespective of the eventual evolution this week, temperatures are progged to remain seasonal, with a trend toward above-normal values by the end of the week and next weekend. Those who have vulnerable plants will need to monitor morning lows, as at least mid-week, there are opportunities for a killing freeze. Otherwise ESAT and WIC tables currently suggest a low threat of anomalous temperatures, which is greatly appreciative given the recent fire weather issues that affected the high plains throughout March. A further positive considerations is that neither atmospheric evolution favors high wind event(s); however the eventual pattern would be conducive to some influence (albeit minor) of Gulf moisture returning to the region.

We will continue to monitor atmospheric trends over the coming days for further clarity. In the interim, preparedness for unsettled conditions beginning as early as mid-week and beyond is advised. Furthermore, some instability may introduce thunderstorms to western Nebraska late week or next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected tonight into Monday afternoon. Winds will remain light at 5-10 kts and become northeasterly through tonight. Winds will then become easterly at 10 to 15 kts late Monday morning through Monday afternoon, with gusts up to 30 kts, especially across western Nebraska. Skies will remain mostly clear this evening before mid to high clouds move into the area overnight into Monday morning. Some flurries or light snow showers are possible early Monday morning, particularly across the northeast portion of the forecast area, though no impacts to aviation are expected. Mid to high clouds are likely to stick around through much of Monday across the area.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.