textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight, mainly east of a line from Ogallala to Valentine. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong to severe storms. The main threat is gusty winds.

- After a dry Tuesday and Tuesday night, the threat for precipitation will increase mid week, continuing into the weekend. Thunderstorms may bring heavy rainfall though the location of storms remains uncertain.

- Expect very warm temperatures for Tuesday, with readings trending back toward seasonal norms midweek into this weekend.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

H5 analysis this morning had high pressure located off the coast of the Carolinas. Weak low pressure was noted over northern Texas with a second short wave trough of low pressure located over southern California. Broad west to east flow extended from the Pacific NW east across the northern tier of states to the western Great Lakes. Low pressure was located over northern Ontario wit a trough extending southeast toward Lake Ontario. Further west, low pressure was located over the central coast of British Columbia. At the surface, weak low pressure was located over southeastern Colorado. Across Nebraska, a wind shift line extended from roughly Valentine South to just east of McCook. Westerly winds were present west of the before mentioned line, while winds were southerly or southeasterly immediately east of the boundary. Dew points were in the 50s to the east of the boundary with 30s and 40s west of this feature. East of the surface boundary winds were gusty over central and eastern Nebraska with light winds west of highway 83. Skies were mostly clear this afternoon with some developing alto cumulus over the sandhills and panhandle. Temperatures as of 2 PM CDT ranged from 86 degrees at Gordon to 94 degrees at Thedford.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A weak surface convergence boundary is expected to develop this afternoon roughly along a line from Bassett to Ogallala. The latest CAMS including the HRRR, NAM12, WRFARW develop convection INVOF the convergent boundary after 21z this afternoon. Temperatures in the lower 90s, along with steep lapse rates from h850 to h70 will lead to decent development of thunderstorms along this boundary late this afternoon. As for severe potential later this afternoon/evening, it appears meager at best. Forecast ML CAPE along and east of the boundary peaks at 1500 to 3000J/KG late this afternoon so ample convective potential is evident. However, deep layer shear is fairly weak this afternoon on the order of around 20 KTS. Gusty winds appear to be the main severe threat given forecast soundings are indicative of an inverted V setup initially. With the loss of surface heating and with deep layer shear being fairly week, am expecting storms to diminish after sunset. There is one aspect that concerns me with this activity tonight and that is the possibility of heavy rain. Weak flow in the mid levels (20 KTS or less at H500) and forecast PWATS topping out just under an inch (ie. 80th to 90th %ile) could possibly lead to a heavy rain threat. However, looking at the current flash flood guidance, the threat for flash flood warning type rainfall appears minimal. Lows tonight will range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. The upper level low (off the British Columbia coast-mentioned in the synopsis section above), will quickly drop south-southeast into far northeastern California/NW Nevada by midday on Tuesday. Downstream of this feature, a surface trough of low pressure will deepen from southeastern Montana south into the front range of Colorado. East of this feature, strong southerly winds will develop by afternoon with the main focus over the western half of the forecast area. Bufkit forecast soundings for tomorrow afternoon indicate some gust potential upwards of 30 to 35 MPH along and west of highway 83. With highs in the mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon, and minimum RH in the 15 to 20 percent range, we will see some elevated and possibly near critical fire weather conditions across western portions of the area with the main area of concern being zone 204. Am expecting dry conditions for Tuesday/Tuesday night thanks to south- southeasterly mid level flow (zero disturbances) and zero surface focus or low level convergence expected across the forecast area. Highs Tuesday will reach into the upper 80s to around 90 and lows Tuesday night will reach the middle to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 313 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Upper level low pressure will remain entrenched across California and Nevada through Friday. By the end of the work week a blocking ridge of high pressure develops and extends from the central plains north into Canada. With the trough off to the west, southerly winds will continue this week, pushing low level moisture north into the forecast area. This would normally be a good setup for persistent rainfall across the region. However, mid level forcing and dynamics appear weak this week so organized areas of precipitation are difficult to pin down. That being said, the extended forecast has an abundance of low end pops this week with the best chances during the afternoon and evening hours. As for the threat for severe storms, given the expected weak dynamics, not seeing a huge threat for severe storms this week. As for the threat for heavy rain, forecast PWAT's toward the middle of the week into the weekend are running between 1.00 and 1.25 inches which is roughly in the 85th over 100th %ile for this time of year. Given the weak steering winds and mid level flow, if and where convection does decide to take off, there will be a threat for heavy rainfall as storm motion will be slow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms across southwest Nebraska north into the Sandhills this evening. This activity should remain south of the KVTN terminal. At KLBF, included VCSH BKN120 02Z-06Z. A period of TSRA is possible with gusty winds and will monitor to include in TAF. All showers and thunderstorms will diminish and end by 06Z, with SCT120 BKN200 tonight. manly FEW250 Tuesday, with south winds increasing to 16018G328KT at both TAF sites in the afternoon.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.