textproduct: North Platte

KEY MESSAGES

- Record temperatures are expected both Friday and Saturday, and this warmth will lead to near critical to critical fire weather concerns.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of western and north central Nebraska for Saturday due to record temperatures, very low relative humidity, and gusty west winds becoming north with the passage of a cold front.

- After briefly cooler temperatures on Sunday, temperatures quickly warm back to well above average into next week. This could bring a return of fire weather concerns to the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Currently, temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s and lower 80s under mostly sunny skies. Winds have increased from the west across western Nebraska, with gusts approaching 20 to 25 miles per hour. With the very low humidity in place today, see no reason to make changes to the inherited Red Flag Warning. Winds have remained weaker further east, keeping fire concerns near critical.

For tonight, expect lows to only fall into the lower 40s, with very poor overnight humidity recovery to only 45 to 55 percent. Yet another warm day is in store for Friday, with highs climbing into the lower to middle 80s across the area. This will again lead to very low humidity tomorrow afternoon, bottoming out as low as 12 to 20 percent area wide. Weak surface high pressure centered just off to the southwest of the area will keep winds light from the west tomorrow, and this precludes any fire weather headlines at this time. Highs tomorrow may approach records across western and north central Nebraska.

Attention then turns to Saturday, which has the look of record warmth across all of western and north central Nebraska. Anomalously warm temperatures will be in place aloft, with H7 and H85 temperatures exceeding the 99th percentile climo and approaching climo maximums for middle March. Very strong upper ridging will be in place also, with H5 heights also approaching climo maximums. As deep mixing occurs quickly tomorrow morning, compressional heating of the warm air aloft will lead to temperatures soaring into the lower 90s for much of the area. The deep mixing does not look to be in question, with clear skies and increasing downslope westerly flow in place. This will also mix very dry air to the surface, allowing relative humidity to crater into the upper single digits to low teens for all. Unfortunately, this combination of record temps and very low humidity will also combine with the gusty west winds and lead to critical fire concerns. Westerly gusts up to 30 miles per hour will precede an approaching cold front through much of the afternoon and early evening hours. As for the cold front, guidance remains at odds with respect to timing of this frontal passage. A surface low is progged to eject southeast across northern Nebraska, reaching northwest Missouri by early Sunday morning. As this low pushes east, the cold front is expected to move quickly from north to south across the area. Though minor differences remain in timing, these have largely been tightened to just a couple hours difference (~06 to 09Z). The more certain aspect will be strengthening northerly winds with its passage, which is widely supported across the guidance suite. Strong cold advection will promote ample mechanical mixing to bring higher momentum flow aloft downwards, and lead to a period of 40 to 45 mile per hour wind gusts for all behind the surging cold front. These continued strong north winds, along with a sharp west to north wind shift, with prolong fire weather concerns across the area. With this in mind, see no reason to change the end time (4 AM CDT) of the inherited fire weather watch for Saturday. Lows Saturday night only fall into the 40s again, with the gusty winds helping to keep lows more mild. This also impacts overnight humidity recovery, further supporting continuing the Red Flag Warning into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Cooler temperatures return briefly for Sunday behind the cold front, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. That said, these temperatures are still near average for mid-March. Heights then begin to rise aloft as we head into next week, with temperatures moderating back to well above average again. Unfortunately, this will bring a return of fire concerns, especially on Monday and Wednesday when the strongest winds are expected. Wednesday looks particularly concerning, as highs again may soar to near records across much of the area. Very low humidity may overlap increasing westerly winds, along with a threat for another cold frontal passage sometime Wednesday into Thursday. This will need to be monitored closely, as the early week period may bring near daily critical fire weather conditions back to the area.

Unfortunately, no precipitation is expected across the entire area over the next week, likely exacerbating ongoing drought conditions as well as fire weather concerns.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow afternoon across all of western and north central Nebraska. Winds will be light and variable to light northwest tonight below 10kts. Northwest winds on Friday, mainly from 5 to 15kts. Skies will be SCT- BKN250 this evening, then FEW250 overnight into Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

After poor relative humidity recovery, temperatures are going to warm considerably on Friday, which will allow for a prolonged period of critically low relative humidity. Winds will be lighter and generally from the west, but still, gusts to 20 mph will be possible across much of west central Nebraska.

Attention turns to Saturday when the region bakes under a ridge of high pressure. It cannot be emphasized enough how warm temperatures will be Saturday afternoon, with some locations reaching 30-40 degrees above climatological norms. Relative humidity values will plummet into the lower teens, if not single digits across west central Nebraska. A cold front is scheduled to arrive across the region Saturday evening. Prior to the front, wind gusts from the southwest to west will increase to as strong as 40 mph. Behind the front, gusts exceeding 40 mph with critically low relative humidity will continue well into the early morning hours on Sunday. A prolonged period of extreme fire behavior would be possible with any start Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning.

Winds remain on Sunday, but cooler temperatures should prevail. Highs will trend closer to climatology, but it will remain dry. Temperatures to warm early next week with the potential for record highs once again next Wednesday. There appears to be another frontal passage next Wednesday with the possibility of very strong winds.

CLIMATE

Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Forecast Highs vs Record (year of last occurrence)

Friday 03/20 Saturday 03/21

North Platte 85/83 (1997) 93/86 (1910) Valentine 82/83 (1997) 90/84 (1910) Broken Bow 84/82 (2004) 91/83 (1997) Imperial 86/83 (1910) 94/87 (1907)

Forecast highs at North Platte, Imperial, and Valentine would break all-time March records.

LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ204. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for NEZ204-206-208>210-219.