textproduct: Key West

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. Some showers will continue to pass in the vicinity of both terminals into this evening, and then rain chances will fall overnight. Near surface winds will start out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts, gradually slackening and backing tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Another active morning continues for the Florida Keys. A corridor of confluence along with an uncapped atmosphere has resulted in convection bubbling along and around existing boundaries. Despite a seemingly uninhibited environment, not many showers have developed into thunderstorms and, if they do, tend to diminish quickly. One possible hint as to why these showers are not holding together can be found in this morning's KKEY 12z sounding where a large spike of dry air is observed around 600mb. This could be thought as strange as one would assume ample moist air is being pulled into our area on the tail end of newly named Tropical Storm Chantal as it trudges slowly towards the South Carolina coast. CIMSS MIMIC TPW does note a dry slot in Chantal's tail extending across Lake Okeechobee and into the southeastern Gulf. While this feature could spell some doom for showers in its immediate area, convection is still progged to wax and wane around the island chain into this afternoon. 50% PoPs continue to look appropriate for this reason. Meanwhile, moderate southwesterly breezes prevail along the Reef outside of convective influence. These are set to continue throughout today, only gradually backing to the south and slackening tonight as Chantal limps into South Carolina.

FORECAST

Issued at 419 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 After today, the disturbances off of the southeastern coast will lift to the northeast, and ridging will be the dominate pattern again across the area. The ridge axis looks like it will lift through Florida sometime between Sunday night and Monday night. An embedded pocket of drier air will help to bring PoPs down to a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

What happens after that still bears great uncertainty. Guidance is picking up on fluctuating PoPs and sky cover over the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. Global models are resolving either a TUTT or an inverted ridge undercutting the high pressure. This is reflected in the PoPs fluctuating between 20 and 40 percent over the second half of the week, but the precise details will need to be worked out in a future forecast package since we are a little too far out from honing in on any meaningful details.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a deep trough complex over the Southeast US and Florida will maintain gentle southwest breezes across the Florida Keys through today. As the trough lifts northeast starting Sunday, a weak ridge axis will rebuild across the Keys and South Florida, resulting in a return to generally light to gentle easterly breezes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 91 82 91 / 40 20 20 20 Marathon 81 89 82 89 / 40 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.