textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures expected to continue through Saturday.

- Mainly southeast light to gentle breezes are expected through Saturday morning. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

- Confidence continues to increase for a strong cold front to press through the Keys Sunday evening and Sunday night, resulting in much cooler temperatures, a substantial drop in humidity, and a period of windy conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Saturday afternoon. Rain chances will remain nil, with only FEW cloud bouts based at around 050-070. Near-surface winds will remain out of the southeast at 8 to 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 Surface high pressure over the western North Atlantic remains centered to the north of Puerto Rico. The high will continue to meander to the north of Puerto Rico into the weekend. This will continue mainly light to gentle southeasterly breezes throughout the Florida Keys for the next few forecast periods. Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys resulting in nil to near nil rain chances for today through Sunday morning. Upper level ridging will remain in place across the Keys into early Sunday before beginning to break down. This will lead to warm to very warm temperatures for this time of year with highs in the lower 80s today and Saturday. Some mid 80 degree readings also cannot be ruled out. Early summer-like weather will continue for the Keys through Saturday. Dew points will remain fairly steady for the next few forecast periods near 70 degrees, though, these may tick up another degree or two as we head into the weekend. Overnight lows will also be quite mild in the lower 70s, potentially mid 70s in some locations. The caveat will be over the weekend when the gradient becomes nebulous allowing winds to go light and variable. This may lead to a period of more widespread radiational cooling over the weekend, especially across our interior and more sheltered locations. We will also have to watch for some fog as we will be pumping up the dew points over the cool waters.

Confidence continues to increase on another "bring it" cold front for sometime Sunday evening/night. This will bring another blast of much cooler weather to the Keys giving Florida a taste of winter yet again. The result will be a period of windy conditions, tumbling temperatures and humidity, and slight chances of rain. Light and variable winds early Sunday will become west to northwest during the day while freshening. Breezes will dramatically increase Sunday evening with the frontal passage while also shifting to the northwest to north. Expect fresh to strong, potentially near gale breezes, beginning Sunday evening continuing through the early part of next week. The peak breezes are expected overnight Sunday and into early Monday with some slackening during the day before another surge Monday evening and overnight. We don't anticipate much in the way of any shower activity with the front, though, slight chances (10%) remain. This won't bode well for the ongoing drought across Florida currently. Temperatures Sunday night are currently forecast to be 55 to 60 degrees with highs in the lower to mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday. The coldest night is expected to be Monday night with overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s for the Upper Keys with lower 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys. Tuesday night will also be quite chilly with lows 50 to 55.

In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will traverse across the North Gulf Coast from early to mid next week. This will keep fresh to strong northerly winds initially before winds veer around the compass becoming east to southeast by mid to late next week. Plenty of dry air will remain across the Keys yet again leading to nil rain chances. Temperatures will begin to slowly moderate towards the middle of next week, potentially reaching 80 degrees by late next week.

MARINE

Issued at 1043 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. A surface high centered in the central North Atlantic will meander in place for the next few days. The western periphery will stretch west through the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf. This will maintain mainly gentle southeasterly breezes through Saturday morning. A period of light and variable breezes are possible late Saturday into early Sunday as the Keys remain in region of nebulous pressure gradient. This may support some patchy to areas of marine fog early Sunday, especially in the cooler Gulfside and southeastern Gulf waters. Confidence continues to increase for a strong cold front to sweep through the Keys coastal waters beginning Sunday evening, with strong, potentially near gale, northwest to north breezes anticipated in its wake.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 73 82 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 81 73 82 70 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.