textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding in the Upper Keys and minor to moderate coastal flooding in the Lower to Middle Keys is ongoing, especially around high tide.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters through Tuesday morning. - Fast-moving scattered showers will continue to move through the area until at least Tuesday night. Any of this activity will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The pattern for today into Tuesday will continue to be driven by a rather strong high pressure system anchored over Appalachia combined with a festering area of low pressure over the Bahamas. The two of these working in tandem with one another will continue to keep a tight pressure gradient across the area. This gradient may tighten a little bit more today perhaps another millibar or two. Therefore, it appears the Island Chain will remain below Wind Advisory criteria, though, there may be frequent gusts of 32-33 mph along the Chain. Moisture remains across the area with the continued threat for fast-moving gusty showers through the period. The best likely places for these showers are across the eastern marine zones as well as the Upper Keys. The Middle and Lower Keys may experience an occasional shower or two , but the best threat is across the Upper Keys and nearshore and offshore waters to the south.

MARINE

Issued at 503 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026 A Gale Warning is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters through Tuesday morning. A Gale Warning is now in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters from early this morning through Tuesday morning. The Gale Warning is mainly for the potential of hitting frequent near 35 knots, especially across the SE Gulf waters in the vicinity of the Dry Tortugas, the eastern Straits of Florida, and the extreme eastern Hawk Channel. Also, the probabilities of >34 knots for gusts was quite high when assessing the model data with percentages ranging from 50 to as high as 70-80 percent, especially the eastern Straits area.

From synopsis, a Gale Warning is now in effect for all the Florida Keys marine zones through Tuesday morning. Sprawling high pressure over the eastern United States and a persistent low south of the Bahamas will be able to sustain strong to near gale breezes today through Tuesday morning along with frequent gale force gusts, especially across the Straits of Florida, extreme eastern Hawk Channel, and the SE Gulf waters. In addition, pulses of low level moisture will support elevated shower chances. Gale force wind gusts are possible even near shallow showers. Wave heights will stay elevated through mid week even after breezes begin to slacken.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026 VFR conditions are prevailing at both TAF sites early this morning. SHRA continues to track to the southwest, but the activity is remaining east of the terminals. Guidance suggests higher chances for a passing shower this afternoon, but most of the activity will remain in the vicinity. Pressure gradient winds remain elevated from the N/NE around 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts, but brief higher gusts may occur in and near shower activity.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2010, the daily record rainfall of 3.44" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. Also, on this day in 1960, the daily record rainfall of 1.98" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 76 84 76 / 20 10 30 30 Marathon 82 76 84 76 / 20 20 30 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ031>035-042>044- 052>055-072>075.