textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle, occasionally moderate southeasterly breezes will prevail through tonight and into next week.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the remainder of the weekend and into next week. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with the usual warm and muggy conditions.

- A weak Saharan Air Layer is on track to move over the Florida Keys early next week and diminish shower coverage. Heat indices may creep towards 110 around mid week.

MARINE

Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 Showers and thunderstorms that formed over the Outer Gulf waters dissipated by afternoon. Breezes along the reef slackened from light to gentle to light by noon, which allowed cloud lines to start percolating over the Florida Keys. A couple of outflow boundaries are visible on KBYX radar over the Outer Gulf, so boundary collision showers have a chance of developing over the gulfside waters. Showers moving off of South Florida may bring rainfall to Florida Bay and the waters surrounding the Upper Keys.

From synopsis, light to gentle, occasionally moderate, breezes will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Breezes are expected to shift between easterly and southerly during the upcoming week as the western edge of the Atlantic high wobbles across Southern Florida. Shower coverage will wax and wane between slight and a chance through the first half of the week before a weak Saharan Air Layer moves over Southern Florida.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 VFR conditions prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Near surface winds slackened at both terminals, which allowed cloud lines to start forming over the Lower Keys. Short lived showers generating MVFR to IFR VIS and CIGS are possible at both terminals, but more likely near MTH. Cloud cover away from the island chain will be sparse.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 The western flank of an Atlantic ridge now stretches westward across South Florida and the Keys. This is resulting in light to gentle southeasterly breezes across the forecast area. Nebulous anticyclonic flow is in place aloft. As a result, convective forcing is weak and largely mesoscale in nature. Currently, convective activity is at a minimum with only a few showers across our deep gulf zones. Warm conditions are in place with temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s.

The western flank of the surface through lower level Atlantic ridge will remain the dominant synoptic feature in the Keys through the week. This along with weak flow aloft will mean shower and thunderstorm activity will largely be a result of mesoscale and diurnal effects. Overall, rain chances will be slight to low chance. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the week with highs near or slightly above 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Dew points may dip a degree or two for a short period early in the week. Head index values may push towards 110 by mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 92 84 93 / 10 30 10 20 Marathon 83 90 84 90 / 20 30 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.