textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. Minor to moderate coastal flooding may return across the Keys heading into the weekend with the approaching new moon.

- Rain chances will remain slightly above normal today with island cloud lines possible. - A drying trend will begin tonight and Thursday, followed by the potential for lower humidity Sunday night or Monday.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1039 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

This morning KBYX radar is tracking rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing across the far eastern waters of AOR and slowly sliding west. However, as this activity tries to push much west towards the Middle Keys and surrounding coastal waters, the convection is quickly falling apart. This lines up with current thinking with the best corridor of moisture and lift pinned along the southeast coast of Florida. That being said, there is still enough moisture and instability to support a cloud line to develop later this morning and into the afternoon. The fly in the ointment is the fact that in the lower levels we expect an area of sinking motion to move through around the time the cloud line would attempt to take shape. It remains to be seen which will win out ultimately. For that reason, left PoPs alone for this update cycle. Otherwise, winds are once again stubbornly slightly stronger than anticipated and have made adjustments to the coastal waters forecast accordingly.

MARINE

Issued at 1039 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Gentle to occasionally moderate northeast to east breezes prevail this morning and will likely linger into the afternoon. There may be a brief window where the Bayside waters slacken to light to gentle but would freshen back this evening. Showers and thunderstorms today will primarily be confined to our easternmost waters, however, conditions are marginally favorable for cloud lines to develop. If a robust enough cloud line should develop we could see additional isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Lower and Middle Keys, as well as the surrounding nearshore waters. Lastly, tide levels in the Upper Keys remain elevated and mariners should continue to expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions expected today outside of any passing shower or potential thunderstorm. Any possible showers or thunderstorms will be dependent on if a cloud line can develop across the terminals. Given the northeast to east flow, EYW would have a somewhat higher chance of seeing convection this afternoon. Otherwise, surface winds will remain 10 knots or less.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Surface through mid level ridging reaches southwestward across the Keys this morning. A robust Atlantic high centered off the Mid Atlantic Coast still stretches westward into the Atlantic States. However, it is being eroded by a mid latitude low swinging into the eastern United States and a deepening low well northeast of the Bahamas. This has resulted in breezes on the ridges southwestern flank to slacken and winds in the Keys have come down to a light to gentle easterly breeze. The environment remains essentially uncapped with unusually high moisture. This, along with the usual nocturnal maxima has supported isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the overnight period. Many island locations were affected with the most recent activity focused in and around the Upper Keys. Surface conditions are relatively warm and humid with temperatures remaining close to 80 and dew points in the mid 70s.

The Atlantic ridge will continue to maintain its presence over the Atlantic states and keep breezes in the Keys light to gentle northeast to easterlies today. This will keep temperatures slightly above normal today with highs expected to push into the mid 80s. Dew points should remain in the mid 70s. Precipitable water is expected to remain rather high at slightly under 2 inches. While low level CAPE will be limited, capping will be nearly non existent. As a result, isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Lastly, the steering flow is expected to become east northeast, opening the door to island cloud line formation. Have nudged up PoPs a bit, pushing chance across all Florida Keys.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 84 76 83 76 / 20 10 0 0 Marathon 84 77 84 76 / 30 10 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.