textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will be favorable for island cloud line formation this afternoon, including possible waterspouts.

- After this afternoon, only a slight chance (10% to 20%) of rain and thunder will be in place for the next few days. - While highs will be seasonably warm in the upper 80s through next week, lows will remain warmer than normal, providing little relief from the heat in the overnight hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026 Conditions will be favorable for island cloud line regeneration in the vicinity of the terminals through 00z this evening. Any developing shower will be slow moving, capable of producing sub- VFR ceilings and visibilities. Coverage and uncertainty in evolution is too low to include mention of VCSH at the terminals for now. Outside of this, VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals. Winds will generally be light and variable throughout the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 504 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026 The overall pattern shows high pressure remaining dominant over the forecast area, albeit weak. This makes for a difficult rainfall forecast as there are no substantial lifting mechanisms available to lift this notably damp air mass. Any convective initiation is going to depend on lift at the mesoscale, such as the offshore breeze overnight from the peninsula, or lingering outflow boundaries from convection occurring elsewhere. The light and variable wind field implies that showers will track slowly across the area, and with PWAT values close to 2 inches, any heavy shower that just so happens to set up over the island chain could produce localized flooding. All of this is to say that this set up isn't necessarily indicative of any kind of washout conditions, and this isn't a slam dunk rain maker, but we can't rule out the possibility of isolated instances of heavy showers that may or may not track over island communities. For now, we'll opt to keep slight chances of rain and thunder over the next few days. The "best" chance for any activity will be around the Upper Keys since afternoon convection can easily drift across the Key Largo area.

Long range guidance continues to hint at another increase in rain and thunderstorm chances near the middle of next week, but that is going to depend on how the synoptic pattern evolves (obviously). Ensembles are favoring deepening trough along the Eastern Seaboard, with some upper level divergence across the area. This would support better chances for some meaningful rainfall, but we are simply too far out in time to make a call like that.

MARINE

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure across the area will support light to gentle southeast to south breezes over the next few days, becoming light and variable at times. The nebulous pressure pattern will continue through much of early next week, with near normal rain and thunder chances also expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 88 81 88 81 / 30 10 10 10 Marathon 87 80 87 80 / 30 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.