textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A cloud line is possible during the late afternoon and evening hours today.

- A mainly dry period is expected to continue through early week, exasperating existing moderate drought conditions.

- Expect mainly light to gentle southeast breezes to prevail into early week, becoming variable at times.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 VFR conditions will generally prevail at both island terminals through 18z Monday afternoon. Slight chances of rain remain in the vicinity of the terminals this afternoon and evening. We will handle any showers approaching the terminals with TEMPO groups due to lack of confidence in timing and coverage from any developing island cloud line. Near surface winds will generally be out of the south, becoming light and variable at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 439 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 A fairly benign pattern is expected for the next several days across the Florida Keys as northwesterly flow aloft remains in place. At the surface, weak high pressure remains in control through Monday. The pattern will be one in which Florida heats up during the day leading to a thermal low over the mainland. This will lead to the gradient collapsing across the Keys late this afternoon into the overnight leading to light and variable winds. Usually when the winds go light and variable and the time of year that we are approaching, a cloud line is not completely ruled out for this afternoon into this evening. Cloud lines are notorious for their potential to produce waterspouts. Therefore, if this cloud line forms, we will need to keep an eye out for any waterspouts. Also, the waterspout index, internal to our office, is showing high values between 35 to 50 percent for today. A similar pattern is also expected for Monday. Due to this, slight chances of showers remains in the forecast. Temperatures will remain in the mid 80s by day and mid 70s by night along with dew points near 70 degrees.

As we start to head through the week, another high drifts southeastward along the Eastern Seaboard. This will lead to a strengthening pressure gradient with breezes backing and freshening out of the northeast to east. Moisture undulations will continue keeping slight chances of rain in the forecast through Wednesday. Temperatures remain in the mid 80s for highs with mid 70s for overnight lows. Dew points will also be hovering near 70 degrees keeping that summery feel.

A return to the weaker flow regime returns for mid to late week which may instigate a pattern similar to that of today and Monday. There is the potential we might need to keep an eye out for cloud lines again later this week. Stay tuned as we continue to hone in the forecast. One thing we have high confidence in is expect continued highs in the mid 80s, potentially even some upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s, maybe upper 70s and dew points in the lower to perhaps mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 1044 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure over the North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the Florida Keys for the next several days. This will support generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes, becoming light and variable at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 85 76 85 77 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 84 76 85 76 / 20 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.