textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- An approaching new moon will result in increasing high tides. Minor coastal flooding will be possible along the length of the Florida Keys. Moderate coastal flooding may be possible through the first half of next week as this tidal cycle peaks.

- Rain chances will be near to below normal for the remainder of this week.

- Drier conditions are possible as dew points potentially slip to near or slightly above 70 degrees this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Deep layered ridging is now in place across our region with the lower to mid level ridge being fairly robust. The surface ridge is fairly amorphous, and is the relic of the the western flank of an Atlantic high that has been squeezed by a mid latitude low in the northeast and a non tropical low northeast of the Bahamas. As a result, surface winds are light to gentle across the Keys and surrounding waters. Drier and more stable layers have moved in aloft. Last evenings sounding indicated the precipitable water was 1.68 inches. Inhibition was non existent, but low level instability was weak with considerable drying above 850 mb. As a result, after evening activity moving off of South Florida, convection has been almost absent through the overnight.

The dissipating remains of the surface ridge will slide southward into the Keys region today. This will keep breezes along the Keys light out of the northeast. Winds may briefly back northerly on our westernmost zones late this afternoon and evening due to mainland day time heating. Rain chances will be slim due to the dominance of anticyclonic flow and further drying above a seasonably moist, but shallow boundary layer. The best chance for any showers will likely result from late afternoon activity pushing off of South Florida. However, any development will have quite a lot of dry air aloft to overcome. Expect highs to be slightly above normal in the mid 80s with dew points likely mixing down to near or slightly above 70.

MARINE

Issued at 134 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Very weak ridging across the Florida Peninsula will maintain light to gentle northeasterly breezes across Keys waters today. Winds will likely back northerly on our northwest and western waters due to the effects of South Florida day time heating.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 134 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will light out of the northeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.