textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally unremarkable weather will prevail through most, if not the rest, of the week with generally gentle east to southeast breezes and below normal rain and thunder chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A handful of very light, shallow showers are still tracking from southeast to northwest across the area this morning, but the overall setup does not favor any necessarily exciting weather. Upper air analysis shows deep high pressure centered to the east of the Sunshine State with a ridge axis extending across the peninsula. High pressure usually points to calm weather conditions, but the steering flow this morning is around 17 knots, or nearly 20 mph. Flow is likely elevated due to a tightened gradient as the high is progged to move across the state over the next couple of days. Moisture is extremely limited as the 12Z sounding from this morning calculated a PWAT value of 1.59". Layer analysis shows that this moisture is mostly sitting between the surface and 700 mb, so any additional showers shouldn't have much height to them. Satellite derived PWAT values show a pocket of ever drier air advecting in throughout today, so rain chances will approach nil.

Current temperatures along the island chain are already in the upper 80s with our hot spot currently in Big Pine where the temperature is already in the lower 90s. Dew points in the mid 70s are keeping the heat index "only" in the upper 90s at this time. With mostly sunny skies in place, the afternoon will warm up a few more degrees, but the silver lining is this breeze in place. The air shouldn't feel too stagnant, but those sensitive to heat should still be aware of the afternoon heat index values hitting the mid 100s. No changes are proposed to the inherited forecast package at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Deep layered ridging will remain the driver of our weather through the week. The ridge axis will weaken as it slips slowly southward into South Florida by mid week. Consequently, easterly breezes will oscillate steadily downwards, still peaking at night and lulling during the day. No change in temps or dew points expected. Drier and more stable lower levels will help to keep rain chances slim to none.

Late week, the mid and upper level ridge will weaken much further as a mid latitude trough slides across the eastern United States. Meanwhile, all long term guidance indicates a broad lower level trough will ride westward across our area, bringing with it increased moisture and instability. Expect rain chances to climb late week and into the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. Isolated showers will continue to track across the waters through this afternoon, but drier air will greatly limit how much activity will develop as well as how long this activity will persist. Any marine impacts will be very localized, and short lived. EAst to southeast breezes will slacken over the next day or so as higher pressure becomes the dominant feature across the area, and the rest of this week should see generally light to gentle easterly breezes with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms at best.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with only isolated pockets of light showers moving across the area at the start of the TAF period. Skies will remain FEW to SCT near FL025, but occasional MVFR CIGs may be observed with the fair weather cloud field. Any MVFR obs will be short lived, and not necessarily representative of the weather in the vicinity of the air field. Surface winds will remain out of the southeast at 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts up to near 20 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 83 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 90 84 90 84 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.