textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rapid warming and moistening trend expected through the end of the week with temperatures returning to near or slightly above normal by Friday.

- Light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes will persist through the first half of the weekend, accompanied by slight rain chances. - A strong high pressure system sinking into the northern Plains from Canada is forecast to freshen breezes early next week. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 Record breaking cold temperatures across the Florida Keys came to an end yesterday. While radiational cooling dropped the temperature at the KKEY office to 46 yesterday morning, east to southeasterly winds rapidly warmed the island chain into the lower to mid 70s by afternoon. Pre-sunrise temperatures across the Keys this morning are measuring in the upper 60s with lower temperatures in the interiors of the larger islands. More importantly, dew points surged from yesterday's lows in the lower 40s to near 60. Anyone concerned that the first weekend of March would be a cold one may rest assured that temperatures will stay near or slightly above normal through the rest of February.

There are a couple of uncertainties in the weekend forecast. The eastward movement of the Atlantic High will allow a shortwave trough to dig into the Deep South tomorrow. The associated surface low pressure system, fed by Gulf moisture, would be able to amplify somewhat and send a cold front into Northern Florida. The challenge is where that front stalls, because model guidance does not indicate this boundary will be able to reach the Keys. Wind streamlines thus do not resolve strong low level forcing for showers to form, and southerly winds suggest a potential Cuban shadow. Given the weak forcing, opting to leave showers at a slight chance at most.

The most significant feature for the long term forecast would be a strong high pressure system descending from Canada into the northern Plains early next week. While the high would be able to quickly traverse east across the northern states, it would be well developed enough to build the pressure gradient across the Keys to support moderate to fresh breezes in the Straits by the middle of the week. Breezy conditions were left out of the forecast at this time because the magnitude of these breezes would depend on how far south the high pressure center moves, exactly how strong the high becomes, and what follows in the high's wake. Check back later, and do not be shocked if breezy wording starts to appear in the long range forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 410 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 From synopsis, a broad Atlantic ridge will shift eastward over the next few days. Through this period, resulting gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will slacken. However, impacts from nearby land breezes and cooler waters north of the island chain will make conditions more chaotic. Over the weekend, a high pressure system is primed to build over the southeastern States. Breezes will slacken to light to gentle amidst an increase in shower coverage. A reinforcing high is forecast to sweep into the eastern US in the latter half of the weekend, and may prompt rapidly freshening breezes early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 410 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today with occasional bases showing up between 3500 and 5000 ft. Surface winds will start out gentle to moderate out of the east to southeast this morning, relaxing through the day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 79 69 80 69 / 0 10 0 20 Marathon 79 70 81 69 / 0 10 0 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.