textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Drier conditions will persist today through tonight, thereafter, moisture will begin to return and elevated rain chances will prevail through the weekend.

-Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail into tomorrow night as high pressure slides over the Big Bend into the western North Atlantic.

-Small Craft Advisory headlines are becoming increasingly likely for Monday and Monday night after a strong front pushing through the Keys results in freshening breezes.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. Near surface winds will be generally out of the northeast to east at 6 to 11 knots with occasional higher gusts.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 510 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 A "chilly" night for those in the Florida Keys, as temperatures dropped into the mid 60s overnight with dew points in the lower 60s. Dry air dominating the region on MIMIC precipitable water, and confirmed on last night's 00z sounding, has kept any shower development from happening, therefore, KBYX has remained quiet. Along the Reef, winds are currently being observed at near 10 knots. A broad area of high pressure over the southeastern US and drifting into western Atlantic will dominate the present weather through the next few periods, leading to generally stable, mostly dry weather with light to gentle breezes and seasonal temperatures for the Keys.

As the weekend unfolds, a frontal boundary will move towards South Florida, increasing cloudiness and moisture and elevating the chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday. While no severe weather is expected at this time, SPC does have South Florida and the Keys highlighted for thunderstorms on their Day 2 and 3 Outlook (Saturday 12z-Monday 12z). Once this feature moves through, northerly to northeasterly breezes will strengthen behind it, bringing likely Small Craft Advisory conditions. We will also see slightly cooler air and diminishing shower chances as high pressure rebuilds later in the week.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 AM EST Fri Dec 12 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure drifting eastward into the western North Atlantic will result in gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes. The next frontal boundary is progged to push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Sunday night. Ahead of the front, elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through early Sunday. In the wake of the frontal passage, fresh to strong northeasterly breezes are expected Sunday night through at least Tuesday.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1957, the daily record low temperature of 42F was recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 71 81 70 79 / 10 30 60 40 Marathon 72 79 71 78 / 10 30 60 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.