textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical Depression Two is located across the northeastern Gulf on which the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories. This system poses no threat to the Florida Keys.

- Gentle to moderate breezes will continue to peak and lull through the week. The exception is the SE Gulf where moderate to fresh breezes will slacken to gentle to moderate today.

- Heat indices may approach 108 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities.

- Saharan Air Layer plumes will transit the area through at least mid week, limiting rain and thunder chances.

FORECAST

Tropical Depression Two will continue to try and steal the show for the next few days as it only slowly traverses across the North Gulf Coast. However, this system poses no risk to the Florida Keys. With that said, the western periphery of an Atlantic ridge will continue to be the dominant feature for the Keys sensible weather. Overall, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of the week as moisture undulations move through the region. Outside of the slight rain chances, seasonably to slightly above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week. Daytime highs will be near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will continue to be tropical and steamy resulting in heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees. Make sure to continue to take breaks and stay hydrated! Peaking and lulling gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes are expected through mid week before shifting more to the east to southeast for late week and into the weekend.

One caveat is guidance is beginning to show signs of another Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell moving swiftly westward to west-southwestward for mid to late week. Right now it looks to cross the Bahamas sometime Wednesday night and then Cuba around Thursday before continuing to move towards the Yucatan. All this means is that there may be a uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity around this time. Right now, much of this is expected to remain south of the Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 456 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) until winds decrease across the SE Gulf waters. There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, at 5:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Two was centered over the northeastern Gulf of America, and is expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend to the Florida Peninsula for the next several days. Moderate to fresh breezes this morning, especially across the SE Gulf will slacken to gentle to moderate this afternoon. Thereafter, breezes will continue to peak overnight and lull during the day through Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mainly south this morning and afternoon before shifting to the southeast to south this evening. Any lingering shower activity is expected to remain north and east of the terminals for much of the period. The next best chance threat for showers or thunderstorms to impact the terminals will be about 24 hours from now.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2023, the daily record warm low temperature of 86F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

On this day in 2024, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 91 84 91 84 / 0 20 10 10 Marathon 90 83 90 83 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.