textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions are expected again on today, with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees.

- After a few days of lighter winds, breezes will become moderate to fresh out of the west or northwest by Wednesday afternoon.

- Rain and thunder chances will remain slim in most areas for much of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 421 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 Weather is a bit more active than the past couple of nights. KBYX radar returns are detecting isolated showers pulsing up and down across the waters of the Florida Keys. One managed to form directly on top of Key West in the early morning hours. Most of these showers have a life cycle of about 30 minutes. This pulse of moisture will, at least, make sure another warm low record is not broken at Key West. Temperatures along the island chain are measuring in the lower 80s. Dew points continue to hover in the lower to mid 70s. Breezes along the reef are light to gentle southeasterlies. Overall, one can expect another warm and muggy day with highs approaching 90 F.

Synoptically, Florida Keys weather continues to be defined by a deep anticyclone located north of Hispaniola. Despite the moisture near the surface, drier layers of air continue to linger in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. Meanwhile, high pressure systems over the eastern United States are weakening and moving into the Atlantic. For the Keys, this means the pressure gradient is collapsing. Resulting winds are slackening along the island chain, and periods of light and variable winds are possible before mid- week.

Weather during the second half of the week will become a bit more complicated. The lack of a strong synoptic pressure gradient suggests local features will become more important, a paradigm where model ensembles typically struggle. In addition, a weak boundary is forecast to stall over Central Florida. This suggests stronger breezes along the southern end of the Peninsula and a shift to westerly winds. Unfortunately, this does not mean we are entering the wet season. Model ensembles continue to move deeper layers of dry air across the Keys late this week. We still have a bit of time before the wet season kicks in. In the meantime, make sure to stay hydrated.

MARINE

Issued at 421 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, breezes are light to gentle across the Florida Keys waters this morning. The lack of a strong pressure gradient suggests variable conditions are possible tonight, but a shift towards westerlies is expected on Wednesday. Local freshening of breezes near South Florida is possible during the middle of the week. Shower chances will remain on the lower side while drier air masses linger over the Keys.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 421 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Near surface winds are on track to veer southeasterly during the afternoon, then northwesterly after sunset. Short lived showers near the island terminals are possible, but confidence in timing is not high enough to include a TEMPO.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.