textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Concerns for moderate to major heat risk will continue through the weekend as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Nighttime hours will offer little to no relief with lows near 80F.

- Rain and thunder chances will remain near zero for the Keys through the weekend, and only a slight chance by Monday night. This will also exacerbate existing drought conditions across the Keys.

- The next opportunity for some shower or thunderstorm development may be early next week, but even then only a slight chance exists.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026 VFR conditions with only FEW clouds near FL020 will prevail through the TAF period. Generally northeast to east surface winds of 5 to 10 knots at the beginning of the period will eventually veer to the east to southeast and decrease to near 5 knots. Due to the light nature of these winds, direction may be variable at times.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026 Anticyclonic flow will dictate the forecast for the next several days. In fact, the associated ridge will likely strengthen over the next day or so, supporting near-record temperatures through much of the weekend, along with near-nil rain and thunder chances.

While most guidance does suggest a mid-latitude trough will attempt to break down the formidable ridge, current ensemble member and mean geopotential height fields suggests the associated surface front will struggle to reach the Keys island chain early in the upcoming work week. While a slight rain and thunder chance will be possible for this period, drought-busting accumulations are quite unlikely for most communities. Highs will remain in the mid to upper 80s, with lows generally in the upper 70s to near 80F.

MARINE

Issued at 1055 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a series of weak high pressure systems in the west- central North Atlantic will support light to gentle, mainly southeasterly breezes over the next several days. Strong upper- level ridging across the Gulf eastward to the Bahamas will also yield near- nil rain and thunder chances through the weekend. As a weak frontal boundary approaches the Florida Keys early next week, there may be a brief slight uptick in rain and thunder chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 90 81 90 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 81 87 82 87 / 0 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.