textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will remain near- nil for the next couple of days.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, but Wednesday and Thursday may see heat index values above 105F, particularly along the Upper Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A combination of deep layer ridging and relatively drier air has kept convection at bay for the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters overnight. Light and variable winds early in the overnight have come around from the southeast and freshened slightly. While most island communities held in the lower 80s for temperatures, the interior of the larger Keys were able to radiate out down into the mid 70s. Meanwhile, outside of these localized "cool" spots, conditions remain rather muggy with heat index values still holding on to near 90 degrees for most island locations.

For today, high pressure located in the southwestern North Atlantic and stretching well west into the Gulf Basin will maintain deep layer subsidence across the region. This coupled with a south-southeast steering flow will only add to the inhibition of any shower activity for today. Meanwhile, remnants of a tropical wave that moved across Mexico will enter the northwest Gulf waters off the Texas coast and move along the periphery of said high up into the North Gulf States this week. At the same time, the high pressure will strengthen slightly, maintaining its grip across the Florida Keys. This will not only keep rain chances very low (near 10 percent or less), but it will briefly allow winds to increase slightly Wednesday through Friday.

In addition to a potentially extended dry period, dew points and temperatures will be slowly creeping upward through the week. This will result in heat indices reaching and exceeding 100 degrees this week, especially in the Upper Keys. This will lead to an increase in the heat risk for the Keys, particularity those more sensitive to heat. Conditions will be borderline for heat-related products and will be reassessed as the week progresses. Regardless, extra precautions should be taken this week if you plan on being outdoors for an extended period of time.

MARINE

Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Light to gentle breezes will persist through the middle of the week across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Starting Tuesday night and Wednesday, the Mid-Atlantic high will begin to strengthen and support slightly fresher breezes through the end of the week. Shower and thunder chances are expected to remain very low through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions expected under generally light to gentle southeast to south winds through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 82 91 82 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 88 82 88 82 / 0 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.