textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle east to southeast breezes are expected overnight.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through around mid week. Rain chances will remain near or slightly below seasonable levels (10-20%), with the warm and muggy conditions continuing.

- A weak Saharan Air Layer is on track to move over the Florida Keys by mid week and may diminish shower coverage. Heat indices may creep towards 110 around mid week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The 00z evening sounding shows a very unstable atmospheric profile once again with a CAPE value measured of 3231 J/kg. We also have plenty of moisture. The PWAT value was similar to yesterday measuring 2.05 inches tonight. This is a little lower than the 90th percentile for the date. The wind profile represents mainly northeast to east breezes of 5 knots or less in the lowest few thousand feet. Therefore, we have all the ingredients in play for activity to continue overnight. Plenty of moisture, instability, and triggers (outflow boundaries) should keep radar somewhat active overnight. Overall, no forecast changes are expected this update.

MARINE

Issued at 1025 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight and Tuesday. Breezes are expected to shift between easterly and southerly and trend upwards beginning late Tuesday as the western edge of the Atlantic high strengthens and lifts northward into Central Florida. Winds will tend to peak in the evening where periodic cautions may be required for portions of Keys waters. Advisories are not anticipated at this time. Shower coverage will wax and wane between slight and a chance, with a day or two drier stretch arriving mid week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mostly east to southeasterly through the period. Summer is in full swing across the Keys with the risk for a shower or thunderstorm continuing through the period. Due to the timing and uncertainty of any activity in the vicinity of or over the terminals, VCSH and VCTS was left out of the TAF. Amendments will be made as necessary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 84 91 84 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 92 84 / 20 10 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.