textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect mainly fresh easterly breezes to continue into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys coastal waters.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Thursday through Friday, followed by diminished breezes this weekend.

FORECAST

Surface high pressure off the Carolina Coast is expected to dominate the weather pattern across the Keys for the next several days. Breezy conditions will continue through this evening with gradual slackening thereafter as the high slides further into the western North Atlantic and slowly weakens. Breezes will also shift to the east to southeast. Moisture remains meager for today resulting in a dry forecast. Increasing moisture tonight will re-introduce slight chances to the forecast. In the upper levels, a shortwave trough, currently over South Texas will move across the Gulf today and tonight. As this shortwave approaches the Keys, it is expected to amplify. Therefore, expect increased rain chances for Thursday through Friday as this wave moves through. Most of the ingredients are coming together for this to potentially be a wet period. We will have moisture, instability, and the trigger being the upper level shortwave to instigate more robust convection. There is the chance that a decent portion of the Keys sees beneficial rainfall from this system as it moves through. However, uncertainty still remains on exactly how wet it will be and who this activity will affect.

Upper heights are expected to rise over the weekend into early next week as the aforementioned shortwave trough begins to lift out. However, the Keys will mostly remain in northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure will remain dominant with a weak east to southeast flow. Therefore, expect warming temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 80s, though, some indications are for it be even warmer than this, rising dew points and increasing humidity. Nil rain chances are also expected as of now.

MARINE

Issued at 439 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure off the Carolina Coast will maintain mainly fresh easterly breezes through this evening with hazardous marine conditions continuing. As the high continues to slowly migrate into the western North Atlantic, breezes will continue to slowly slacken as well as shift to the east to southeast. Weak high pressure maintains control over the weekend promoting light to gentle east to southeast breezes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 VFR conditions and gusty easterly breezes (20-25 knots) are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1875, the daily record rainfall of 1.83" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 72 81 72 / 0 20 30 40 Marathon 81 72 82 72 / 0 20 30 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.