textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunder chances will remain elevated (around 30%) through Thursday.

- Lower rain chances will ensue Thursday night, lasting through early next week.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, with heat indices approaching near 100F each afternoon through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along a boundary warrant mention of VCSH in the 18z TAFs at EYW for now. Although scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm will be possible, mainly late in the TAF period, confidence in timing and coverage is too low to include in the explicit TAFs at this time. This will be reevaluated at the 00z and 06z standard TAF issuances later this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 443 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Looking ahead, the pressure gradient starts to collapse across the Florida Keys. Eastward movement of the Atlantic High and westward movement of the CAG indicates the Keys will be in the doldrums between the two pressure centers. The CAG also is primed to divert additional Caribbean moisture away from the Florida Keys later this week. The result would be a collapse in wind speeds, to light to gentle breezes, and low shower coverage over the weekend. The complicating factor would be local effects. Light to gentle breezes mean cloud line patterns may develop, sea and land breezes become more of a factor, and boundary collisions over the water can set off disorganized showers. However, the environmental pattern looks to be on the drier end. Statistical guidance indicates a below average chance of rain late in the period. Overall, enjoy the dry conditions while they last.

MARINE

Issued at 1015 AM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. However, isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Florida Keys marine zones will progress westward throughout the day. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing locally higher and confused seas, as well as wind gusts well over the mean forecast sustained wind speeds would suggest.

From synopsis, a high pressure system over the North Atlantic will support gentle east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through this evening. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will peak this afternoon, owed to the peripheral moisture surge from a Central American Gyre near the Yucatan Peninsula. The high pressure system will move further east into the North Atlantic overnight, allowing breezes to slacken to light to gentle. As the Gyre shifts slightly westward, the moisture plume will also shift west of the Florida Keys marine zones, supporting a drier pattern through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 89 81 89 81 / 50 30 30 10 Marathon 88 81 89 81 / 50 30 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.