textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will wax and wane across the forecast area through the rest of the overnight.

- Coastal Flood Statements are out for the Middle and Upper Keys because of a strong northwest swell.

- Breezy conditions expected as early as Thursday night. Medium to high confidence that breezy to windy weather will last through at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 937 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 We have had a mixed bag of weather across the forecast area this evening! During the later afternoon/early evening hours, there was an elongated band of showers sitting across the distant Florida Straits, south of the Lower Keys. It almost looked like this band was crawling toward Key West, but it was gradually fizzling out as it moved. While this was happening, a line of showers formed directly over the Lower and Middle Keys. This line didn't last long, and the scarce surface observations we have available only showed a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall. Just after dinnertime, most of the shower activity had diminished outside of a few lingering showers over the southeastern Gulf waters. Even without the showers, there was plenty of cloud cover to make our part of the "Sunshine State" feel like false advertising. Based on SPC Upper Air maps, a jet streak associated with the subtropical jet stream was centered over the area just to our north. Bring on the outer periphery of this streak is not favorable for much development. Mesoanalysis also pointed to an area of surface level diffluence, another component that isn't favorable for an active atmosphere.

However, our KBYX radar is currently detecting a new round of showers moving southward across the Middle Keys, and probably the Lower Keys by the time we send this evening discussion out to the world. A cluster of heavy showers over the Everglades tracked southward off of the peninsula around 7:30 PM, and an outflow boundary pushed ahead of it. A handful of marine platforms reported winds gusting to near 25 knots, or 29 mph, as the outflow boundary moved through. Currently, radar estimated rainfall suggests up to three quarters of an inch of rainfall has fallen across the Middle Keys, where the highest reflectivity values are occurring. These showers are still moving southward, so the Lower Keys may be able to get some moisture as long as our unsupportive environment doesn't put a lid on these showers.

Taking this activity into consideration, it's possible the outflow can trigger new shower activity. Coupled with the ample moisture in the lower to mid levels as seen on the 00Z evening sounding from KKEY, carrying a chance of showers into the overnight hours seems reasonable. No adjustments are needed for this evening update.

MARINE

Issued at 937 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect along the Middle and Upper Keys due to a northwesterly swell. Even though the background breezes overnight will be light to gentle, ongoing showers across the waters may lead to gusty and erratic breezes and higher/rough seas. A stalled frontal boundary near the area will encourage some shower activity to continue during the overnight hours, but activity should taper off over the course of Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 937 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will continue at both terminals due to CIGs at varying levels. Lowest cloud bases will be near FL010 to 020, so virtually each observation will come in with a different cloud height. Surface winds will prevail near 10 knots out of the northeast, but occasional showers may bring infrequent gusts.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.