textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Upper Keys and a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys. Minor to moderate saltwater flooding of low elevation streets. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters of the Florida Straits and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in all other waters.

- A wet pattern and thundery pattern will continue through Friday. Rain and thunder chances will decrease over the weekend through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 428 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Another active morning is ongoing for the Florida Keys as scattered showers move northwest through the area. Though showers have been plentiful, very few lightning strikes have occurred in the overnight period. Along the Reef, marine locations are reporting east to southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots, therefore Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are in place for the Bay/Gulf side waters as well as the Hawk Channel. In the Straits, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Temperatures slightly warmed overnight as the atmosphere recovered from yesterday's shower activity with temperatures now in the lower 80s across the island chain. As deep layer ridging continues over the western north Atlantic as well as an upper level low moving easterly, the northerly movement of tropical moisture from the Caribbean will keep flowing into our area. Another high rain chance day is expected for the Florida Keys. While a majority of these showers are currently in the distant waters, models suggest that around sunrise things will start to ramp up over the island chain itself. After Friday, the ridge should start to ease off allowing for breezes to slacken and rain chances to return to closer to normal.

MARINE

Issued at 428 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in Effect for the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere, Small Craft should exercise caution. From synopsis, high pressure offshore the Eastern Seaboard will merge with an existing high pressure across the subtropical Atlantic, and subsequently build through the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh breezes are expected to develop across the Florida Keys waters before sunrise. Widespread Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will be necessary through at least Friday afternoon while a Small Craft Advisory is not in effect. In addition, a very wet pattern will remain across the Keys over the next couple days, resulting in periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. After sunrise, another round of convection is expected to move northwest through the island chain resulting in the possibilities of TEMPOs including MVFR or IFR conditions. During convection wind gusts of near 25 knots are possible. Outside of convection, east to southeasterly winds of near 10 knots are expected.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ052>055- 072>075.