textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended period of wet and windy conditions will develop across the Florida Keys this weekend as a cold front arrives. Drier conditions may gradually return by the early to middle part of next week, but winds are forecast to remain elevated.

- A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required beginning Saturday night or early Sunday for the Gulf waters, spreading across the remaining waters during the day on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A mid latitude trough is swinging through the eastern United States tonight. As a result, earlier nearby deep layered ridging is being shoved eastward into the Atlantic. With the departure of the surface ridge, winds in the Keys have become light out of the southeast. This has also improved lower to mid level northward moisture transport across our area and the eastern Gulf of America. This evenings sounding indicated precipitable water of 2.18 inches, above the 90th percentile for the day. In addition, CAPE was more than sufficient with little to no inhibition. Convective activity near the Keys has been limited through the evening. With that said, scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to lumber through our deep gulf waters and western Florida Straits.

The departing surface ridge will maintain light mostly southeasterly breezes through the overnight period. Deep layered moisture will remain elevated, along with ample CAPE and limited inhibition. Latest radar imagery continues to suggest a few outflow boundaries heading broadly towards the island chain. This enhanced convergence during the usual nocturnal maximum will be conducive to further propagation of shower and thunderstorm activity. The western portions of the island chain will have the highest chances for being affected. Mesoscale models agree with this outcome. Outside of convective activity, expect overnight lows to range in the upper 70s with dew points not far off.

Looking slightly ahead, a much wetter and windy period remains on tap for the Keys. This is as a result of a strong cold front pushing through the Keys and possibly stalling in the Florida Straits this weekend. While there remains some uncertainty, rain chances are expected to diminish significantly early next week. Stiff northeasterly breezes will likely take days longer to come down.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The western flank of an Atlantic ridge will retreat eastward as a trough descends southeastward off of the Atlantic Coast. As a result, breezes will continue to trend downwards out of mainly a southeasterly direction overnight. Expect scattered to numerous showers and a chance for thunderstorms overnight.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail overnight at the island terminals. With that said, there will be a good chance for a round or two of showers and possible thunderstorms near the island terminals, resulting in sub VFR conditions, particularly at EYW. Aside from convective influences, surface winds will be light out of the southeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.