textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect moderate to fresh easterly breezes to continue this morning, slackening to moderate breezes by this afternoon, except for the Straits.

- Small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease for all Keys coastal waters, except Straits of Florida.

- Increased rain and thunderstorm chances are expected today through Friday with peak chances tonight.

FORECAST

The forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours remains rather interesting. We are currently watching an area of disturbed weather over the South-central Gulf early this morning. This is in association with an upper level shortwave trough. This trough is expected to continue moving east southeastward amplifying and strengthening as it does so. The core of the shortwave is expected to rotate through the Keys overnight into early Friday morning. Here is the rundown on how we think this play out: Moisture will continue to increase across the area today, though, most guidance suggests that the shower and thunderstorms that develop today will mostly remain just outside of the Keys coverage area. However, this looks to change in earnest overnight into Friday morning. As this shortwave rotates through, we are expecting increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the Keys forecast area. This activity looks to move in an west to east fashion affecting western portions of the area first before affecting the eastern portions. It should be noted though that there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to the exact track of this shortwave. Latest guidance suggests most of the activity remaining over the marine area, however, any subtle shift can alter the weather the Keys experience overnight into Friday morning. All the ingredients will be on the table for this to potentially be a wet period. We have the instability, trigger (upper level shortwave trough) and the moisture. Any shower and storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Once we get to Friday afternoon, this shortwave trough will be well on its way to the Bahamas allowing the Keys to clear and dry out.

Upper level heights will rise over the weekend into early next week as the aforementioned shortwave trough moves away from the region. This will leave the Keys in northwesterly flow aloft for several days. At the surface, high pressure will remain dominant with a weak east to southeast flow. Therefore, expect warming temperatures with highs in the mid 80s, though, some indications are for it be even warmer than this. Also, anticipate rising dew points and increasing humidity. Nil rain chances are also expected as of now due to dry air lingering.

MARINE

Issued at 445 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) until winds decrease across all the Florida Keys coastal waters, except for the Straits where SCEC remains headlined into tonight. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes early this morning before slackening to mainly moderate breezes towards the late morning and afternoon. As the high continues to slowly migrate farther into the western North Atlantic, breezes will continue to slowly slacken as well as shift to the east to southeast. Weak high pressure maintains control over the weekend into early next week promoting light to gentle east to southeast breezes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the period. While chance of showers and slight chance of thunder is in the forecast for today, the timing and placement for this activity remains uncertain. Therefore, VCSH was left out of the TAF for now. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms looked to be right at the end of the 06z TAF period. This will be looked at more closely with the 12z TAF update later this morning. Otherwise, near surface winds will remain mainly easterly at gentle to moderate breezes.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2020, the daily record warm low temperature of 80F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 74 81 75 / 30 60 50 20 Marathon 82 73 82 75 / 30 50 40 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.