textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog from this morning have diminished with midday heating. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible today specifically near the Upper Keys. - A strong high pressure system will spread southeastward off of North America early this week, freshening northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. Beginning Monday night, breezy conditions will be possible and marine Cautions and Advisories may be required.. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Fog has finally dissipated around EYW with VFR conditions observed by both island terminals this afternoon. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms exists for the island chain for the rest of today and into tonight, but most of the activity is expected to develop near mainland South Florida and the Upper Keys. While some guidance hints at some showers in the vicinity of MTH this evening, chances are still too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Near surface winds will start light and variable, becoming northeast at 5 to 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 The last remnants of the surface trough will move off to the northeast and east today as modest high pressure over the southeastern United States spreads southeastward into Florida. This will result in winds becoming light to gentle northeasterlies. This flow should drop dew points a couple of degrees to slightly below 70. The strengthening breeze and falling dew points, along with day time heating, should steadily eliminate fog potential. A relatively amplified mid latitude trough across the eastern United States will gradually push out to sea over the next 24 hours. Until this clears, ample CAPE and weak moist confluence will continue across our area. While forcing will be weak, and very low inhibition will help to limit activity, convective development cannot be completely ruled out. If a shower forms, it could also amplify into a thunderstorm. For this reason have kept rain chances slight, but also include the possibility for thunderstorms.

The forecast becomes more monotonous early this week. An expansive high pressure system will expand southeastward off of the North American coast and take the remainder of the week to lumber off into the Atlantic. This high will further ramp up northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. Expect breezy conditions heading into mid week, lasting through the remainder of the week. Breezes will start out east northeast to easterly, and slowly veer east to southeasterly as the core of the high advances further east. The fast flow and ample moisture will be supportive of spats of shower activity. However, this will be held in check by lower to mid level ridging remaining in firm control. Highs will remain near 80 with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Dew points are expected to meander in the upper 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 1100 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak high pressure system over the southeastern United States will push southeastward across Florida today and tonight as a weak trough pulls out into the Atlantic. As a result, light breezes will pick up moderately out of the northeast. Thereafter, a large and robust high will drive southeastward off of North America into the Atlantic. This will usher in a prolonged period of moderate to fresh breezes across the area through the remainder of the forecast. A mix of cautions and possibly Advisories may be required beginning around Monday Night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 69 79 69 80 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 70 78 70 79 / 20 20 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.