textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions will continue through at least this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. - A drier pocket of air will help to keep significant rainfall at bay with only spotty, isolated showers expected through the weekend.

- High confidence for an increase in shower coverage by Tuesday to Wednesday. Breezy to Windy conditions expected by Tuesday night to Wednesday.

FORECAST

A mid latitude cyclone deepening over the Great Lakes will start to change the weather pattern over the northeastern US. There is high confidence this low pressure system will have enough energy to displace the Atlantic High and weaken the broad ridge that has maintained the breezy conditions across the Florida Keys by Sunday to Monday. Slackening winds does not mean the direction is likely to shift, and low level moisture is forecast to wash over the Keys through Sunday to Monday.

Early next week, model guidance suggests the cold frontal boundary associated with the Great Lakes low will move into the Gulf. What remains of the boundary could reach the Florida Keys by mid week and provide a source of lift for showers and thunderstorms. A well developed high over the eastern United States would be responsible for pushing the frontal boundary south, and guidance suggests high confidence in another breezy to windy period for the Keys next week, possibly as early as Tuesday night. Models do not show consensus on the strength of these winds at this time. The spread from the NBM shows a range of over 20 mph at EYW for Wednesday and Thursday, so details are still up in the air. The good news is that model guidance gives medium to high confidence in a more favorable environment for midweek rainfall. Considering the extended drought conditions, any precipitation would be much appreciated.

MARINE

Issued at 425 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a broad Atlantic high will begin to weaken and move east during the first half of the weekend. There is high confidence that moderate to fresh easterly breezes will slacken during the weekend. Light to gentle breezes early next week will freshen by Wednesday in response to a strong high over the eastern United States. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by Monday night, and thunderstorms are possible after the start of the work week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 425 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the 06Z TAF period. Near surface easterly winds will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range with occasional to frequent gusts. Crosswind concerns are low for this pattern. Isolated shower activity and occasional periods of MVFR CIGs are possible, but at low enough confidence to not warrant a TEMPO.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 73 83 72 / 10 20 10 20 Marathon 82 73 82 73 / 20 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.