textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys as ponding of salt water over low lying roads will continue, especially around times of high tide.

- Drier and cooler weather expected to continue through tonight with lows in the upper 60s.

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected to quickly return Sunday night as a strong high pressure settles along the Eastern Seaboard and builds south across our area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 A lovely Saturday continues for the Florida Keys with temperatures in the lower 70s and dew points barely above 60F. Winds have continued to be northeasterly but have slightly slackened to 10 to 15 knots along the Reef. A relatively dry and stable airmass will remain in place across the Florida Keys through the short- term supporting near nil rain chances through Monday. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail with occasional cloud cover in various locations. Light to moderate breezes with no signficant changes in the overall weather pattern expected over the next day or two.

The extended forecast will feature a transition from cool dry conditions to a breezier gradually warmer pattern early next week. As surface high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic, winds will shift to the northeast to east while the air gradually moistens and winds freshen. A mid-level shortwave will then move southward through the Southern Plains towards the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday supporting development of a possible low pressure over the western Gulf. Although developing low and frontal boundaries are expected to remain well removed from the Keys a tightening pressure gradient between the Gulf low and high pressure over the eastern US which will likely result in freshening northeast to east breezes and further increases in moisture. By Tuesday things are expected to shift easterly in the Gulf and near the Bahamas. Impacts are expected to be breezy to windy conditions with higher rain chances but at this time is not expected to be a heavy rainfall event. Uncertainty past Wednesday increases as models have different ideas of whats going to happen in terms of rain and winds. Regardless temperatures should continue on the gradual warming trend with high returning to upper 70s to lower 80s and slight to chance showers for the remainder of the work week.

MARINE

Issued at 151 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 From synopsis, moderate northerly breezes will continue to slacken into this afternoon. Strongest breezes will be found downwind of south Florida, particularly in the eastern Straits of Florida. Thereafter, breezes will undergo a brief cycle of peaks and lulls tonight through Sunday as a strong high begins building over the Ohio Valley. This strong high pressure center will settle along the Eastern Seaboard early next week, promoting high chances of fresh to strong breezes across all Florida Keys marine zones, especially on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 151 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Lower BKN ceilings has started to break apart leaving SCT030 at both terminals. Dry air will limit shower activity therefore no mention of VCSH. Near surface winds will be north to northeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.