textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Dew points in the mid 70s and nighttime lows in the lower 80s will support moderate to major heat risk concerns for the rest of the weekend.

- Limited chance for rainfall chances this weekend and early next week will exacerbate existing drought conditions for the Florida Keys.

- Southeasterly breezes forecast to break early next week and transition to light and variable by mid-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 Occasional MVFR CIGs may be observed at EYW in the first few hours of the TAF period, but longstanding MVFR conditions are not expected as cloud cover continues to move across the area. Cloud bases are near FL020 to 030, so most observations will be of FEW to SCT skies. Southeasterly surface winds near 10 knots will prevail, and rain chances remain near zero.

MARINE

Issued at 1053 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, gentle to moderate breezes will start out the weekend while high pressure over the western Atlantic dominates the weather pattern. Light to gentle breezes with periods of variable winds are expected by the start of the work week. Deep layers of dry air over South Florida will keep rain and thunder chances low through the weekend and early next week. A lingering frontal boundary next week may be able to slightly increase rain chances.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 0410 AM EDT Sat May 9 2026 Anomalously warm temperatures will dominate weather across the Keys through the rest of this weekend. A broad upper level ridge remains anchored over Cuba. A surface high pressure system off the Outer Banks will act in tandem to keep temperatures and dew points elevated across South Florida. Yesterday, both the warm low of 82 degrees and high temperature of 89 degrees broke their respective daily records at Key West International Airport. There are no indications this pattern will break over the weekend. In fact, it will likely get warmer. The Atlantic high pressure system is primed to maintain southeasterly winds across the island chain. That becomes a problem when looking at the dew point.

Looking ahead, unfortunately there is high confidence that the weather pattern across the Keys will be pretty stagnant for the next couple of days. Aside from the aforementioned heat, winds are on track to slacken and periods of light and variable conditions are possible across the island chain. Cloud cover will be off and on, but not sufficient to keep temperatures lower during the day.

A bit of relief may come around the middle of next week. A mid latitude trough may be able to weaken the ridge and push a weak frontal boundary towards the Keys. Unfortunately, this boundary is unlikely to carry enough moisture to impact the ongoing drought conditions. Heat doldrums are in full effect for early May, it seems.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 91 81 91 / 10 10 10 0 Marathon 81 88 82 87 / 10 10 10 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.