textproduct: Key West

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1035 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Yet another undulation of modified Saharan dust continues to progress across the Florida Keys marine zones at this late Tuesday morning hour. Satellite-derived 850-700 mb precipitable water imagery suggests the leading edge of this low-level dry air now approaching the Island Chain. As occurred yesterday, there was some decent convective development in the southeastern Gulf associated the frontal-like lifting of the interface of the Saharan dry air with the relatively more moist conditions ahead of the boundary to the northwest. Since then, convection has waned. Another seasonally warm and muggy afternoon on tap, with highs approaching near 90F across the Island Chain again today. Shower and thunder chances will likely remain near-nil for the balance of today across the Keys, with the 00z evening sounding later this evening expected to have a much drier boundary layer than sampled this morning. No changes proposed to the inherited short- term forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1035 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Any residual showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern Gulf will continue to dissipate over the next couple of hours. From synopsis, a broad, weak high pressure system stretching from the Gulf Basin, across the Florida Peninsula, and into the central North Atlantic will fluctuate in strength over the next several days. As a result, expect both wind speeds and direction to be primarily mesoscale driven and at times chaotic. By Wednesday night, the high will begin to gradually build and allow for a slow freshening of east to southeast breezes.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026 Although an isolated brief shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 84 91 83 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 83 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.

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