textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures expected to continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

- Mainly southeast light to gentle breezes are expected through the remainder of the week into Saturday morning. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

- Confidence continues to increase for a strong cold front to press through the Keys sometime Sunday evening/night resulting in much cooler temperatures, drop in humidity, and a period of windy conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Friday afternoon, with nil rain chances and only occasional FEW to SCT clouds based at around 050. Near- surface winds will remain out of the southeast at 8 to 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a surface high centered in the central North Atlantic will meander in place for the next few days. The western periphery will stretch west through the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf. This will maintain mainly gentle southeasterly breezes through Saturday morning. A period of light and variable breezes are possible late Saturday into early Sunday as the Keys remain in region of nebulous pressure gradient. Confidence is increasing for a strong cold front to sweep through the Keys coastal waters beginning Sunday evening, with strong northwest to north breezes anticipated in its wake.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026 Surface high pressure over the western North Atlantic is centered to the north of Puerto Rico. This high will settle and remain mostly in place for the next few days. This will continue mainly light to gentle southeasterly breezes throughout the Florida Keys for the next several forecast periods. Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys resulting in nil to near nil rain chances for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Upper level ridging will remain in place across the Keys for the next few days. This will lead to warm to very warm temperatures for this time of year with highs in the lower 80s for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Some mid 80 degree readings also cannot be ruled out. The Keys are in for a taste of early summer the rest of the week and into the weekend. Dew points will remain fairly steady for the next few forecast periods near 70 degrees, though, these may tick up another degree or two as we head into the weekend. Overnight lows will also be quite mild in the lower 70s, potentially mid 70s in some locations. The caveat will be over the weekend when winds go light and variable. The high is expected to weaken across the area leaving the Keys in a col region between significant weather systems. This may lead to a period of radiational cooling over the weekend, especially across our interior and more sheltered locations. This could be a similar regime to what is currently happening this morning where Big Pine Key dipped into the mid 60s. We will also have to watch for some fog as we will be pumping up the dew points over the cool waters.

Confidence continues to increase on another "bring it" cold front for sometime Sunday evening/night. This will bring another blast of much cooler weather to the Keys giving Florida a taste of winter yet again. The result will be a period of breezy to windy conditions, tumbling temperatures and humidity, and slight chances of rain.

In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will traverse across the North Gulf Coast from early to mid next week. This will keep fresh to strong northerly winds initially before winds veer around the compass becoming easterly by mid to late next week. Plenty of dry air will remain across the Keys yet again leading to nil rain chances. Temperatures will begin to slowly moderate towards the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 73 81 73 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 81 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.