textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the middle of the week, with near or slightly below normal rain chances and warm and muggy conditions continuing.

- A weak Saharan Air Layer is on track to move over the Florida Keys by mid week and diminish shower chances for a day or two. Heat indices may creep towards 110 around mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 Our KBYX radar was particularly busy earlier this afternoon as outflow boundaries stemming from South Florida converged with the east to southeasterly flow across our area. The result was pockets of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms. The most "electric" storms occurred just offshore to the north of Key West, and eventually steering closer to the Marquesas Keys. While this activity dodged the few surface observation sites we have, the ASOS at Key West International Airport did report thunder at times as the thunderstorms worked themselves over. SHortly after sunset, virtually all of the activity diminished, and only a few isolated showers are currently percolating across the Southeast Gulf waters well to the north of the Lower Keys. There aren't any obvious ghost boundaries currently being detected on radar, so the uniform easterly flow should keep things from reigniting here in the very short term.

High pressure draped over the region is ensuring that we feel the summer season. As we are typing up this evening update, air temperatures are still in the upper 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. This means our heat indices are still near 100F along the Keys, even though sunset was a couple of hours ago. Preliminary observation data shows high temperatures along the Florida Keys today were in the lower 90s, but our hot spot was Big Pine Key with 96F this afternoon.

GOES-19 Dust detection shows some Saharan Air Layer (SAL) nudging into the area, and this should help to keep a lid on PoPs. With a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms slated for our overnight hours, around a 20% chance, this seems reasonable while these last few showers work themselves out. No changes or updates are proposed for the current forecast package.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, gentle to modestly moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail over the next few days as the western edge of an Atlantic ridge strengthens and lifts northward into Central Florida. Winds will tend to peak in the evening where periodic cautions may be required for portions of Keys waters. Advisories cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Shower coverage will wax and wane between slight and a chance, with a day or two drier stretch arriving mid week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with only FEW to SCT clouds based near FL025. Isolated pockets of afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible, around 10% to 20% chance, near the Keys, but we are opting to keep the current TAF package dry due to the uncertainty related to the timing and location. Surface winds will oscillate between east and southeasterly near 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 84 92 84 92 / 20 10 10 0 Marathon 83 92 84 92 / 20 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.