textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized ponding of saltwater will remain possible during times of high tide across the Florida Keys as tidal levels trend down through the end of the week.

- Rain chances will be slight at best through tonight and gradually increase Thursday ahead of an approaching front. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, and will open the door for a period of breezy to windy conditions.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 931 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 Another beautiful, albeit warm, afternoon is unfolding along the Florida Keys! High pressure is still traversing the area, and this has supported a period of generally unexciting weather conditions, but we are not complaining. Automated surface observations show temperatures currently near the mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Visible satellite shows a broken field of mostly fair weather cumulus clouds moving across the area, but our KBYX radar is detecting some isolated, light showers across the westernmost portions of the Florida Straits as well is the Bayside waters to the north of the Middle Keys. Satellite derived winds suggest an area of low level convergence in the vicinity of this current activity, but these showers should continue to wane quickly as there isn't a lot of moisture and instability for the atmosphere to work with. The 12Z KKEY sounding from this morning calculated a PWAT value of approximately 1.66", which is a reasonable amount of moisture to have in the atmosphere this time of year. However, both the sounding and layered PWAT analysis suggest that most of this moisture is below 850 mb. Showers will be very unlikely to build tall enough to become thunderstorms. There is also an area of lower PWAT values just to our east, so some of this drier air will advect in as well.

Considering the overall environment and the recent radar trends, we are opting to leave the current forecast package unchanged. The best rainfall chances are currently laid out over the distant waters to the west and north of the island chain. A stray shower or two could, in theory, brush across the northern portions of the Keys later today, but we'll go ahead and keep the forecast shower-free for now. These benign conditions will continue overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 931 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. High pressure moving across the area will allow for east to southeast breezes to gradually slacken today and tonight while veering to the south. The best rain chances will be in the western FLorida Straits as well as the southeastern Gulf waters, but an isolated light shower is virtually possible anywhere. An approaching cold front on THursday night and Friday will cause winds to veer sharply to the northwest to north, and lead to fresh to strong breezes. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Advisory headline may be needed by Thursday night.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 931 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both island terminals. Surface winds will fluctuate between east and southeast, and will eventually veer to the south, but crosswind concerns are low as wind initially near 10 knots will slacken to near 5 knots.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1980, 22.75" of rain fell as a result of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Jeanne being stalled several hundred miles west of Key West, making it the wettest day ever recorded in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 84 76 83 75 / 10 10 30 30 Marathon 84 77 83 75 / 10 10 20 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.