textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal rain chances today will give way to closer to normal chances heading into the weekend.

- Gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes expected over the next few days. - Slightly below normal temperatures today will climb closer to normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Deep layered ridging is steadily gaining more control of our area this morning as a mid latitude trough moves further away across the North Atlantic. An expansive surface high centered over the mid Atlantic states is maintaining moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. However, for the time being, deep layered moisture remains very high, with last evenings sounding depicted a nearly saturated sounding with a precipitable water of 2.16 inches. In addition, there may still be some faint upper level support between the departing mid latitude trough and another unusual trough to our southwest. Local radar continues to indicate isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms across our area, and a large stratiform shield just west our western zones. Surface dew points remain up in the mid 70s with drier air not too far off to the north.

Expect at least another day of well above normal rain chances due to the copious moisture in place, weak CAPE, and lack of inhibition. The previously mentioned surface high will become centered off the Carolina Coast today and maintain mostly moderate easterly breezes. Surface streamlines suggest that incoming air will be arriving from higher latitudes and should help to finally bring in some drier air. Dew points should dip for a short while into the lower 70s, and possibly a little lower later in the day.

Precipitation chances are expected to slide further towards normal heading into the weekend. Deep layered ridging will gain more dominance over our area. While the band of increased lower level moisture is expected to remain across our area, the mid and upper levels are expected to dry out significantly with developing lower to mid level inhibition. Surface winds will trend slowly downwards, becoming a gentle to moderate breeze. Dew points will trend back up into the mid 70s as the streamlines veer more easterly. In addition, increasing sunshine will push temperatures back up into the upper 80s.

Late this weekend and early next week, broad troughing is expected to move westward across the Bahamas and Cuba. Easterly breezes will slacken further as the northern fringes of this trough trough approaches, but may pick up modestly out of the east to southeast as it pushes west of the Keys. The more veered flow should help bump dew points up into the mid to upper 70s by mid week. Guidance suggests that the associated increase in lower level moisture and confluence will result in rain chances again climbing above normal. Uncertainty is high regarding where things go from here. Stay Tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Broad high pressure centered over the Carolinas will migrate southeastward into the Atlantic today, then march eastward into the Atlantic over the next few days. As a result, gentle to moderate will trend slowly downwards. Through this period, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to slowly fall towards normal. Early next week, guidance points to broad troughing moving across Cuba and the Keys. This will likely weaken breezes further while veering southeasterly. In addition, the associated increase in low level moisture and forcing may contribute to increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A wet pattern will remain across the Keys today. As a result, periods of sub VFR conditions will be likely. Away from showers and possible thunderstorms, winds will be gentle to moderate out of the east.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.