textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures across the Keys to stay warmer than normal this week. Dew points expected to linger in the upper 70s.

- A swath of Saharan dry air will remain across the Keys through the first part of the week. Shower chances are likely to stay significantly below normal until the latter half of the week.

- Breezes are forecast to slacken from gentle to moderate to light to gentle this week. Light and variable periods are expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 A dry pattern is setting up across the Florida Keys this Sunday morning. Returns from the KBYX radar early this morning show few, if any, showers across the Florida Keys waters. A glance towards GOES East nighttime microphysics observations suggests a deep layer of drier air has moved over southern Florida. Gentle to moderate breezes along the reef are sufficient to suppress any chance for radiational cooling on the larger islands. Lows are expected to stay in the lower to mid 80s from Key West to Key Largo. Dew points are also lingering in the upper 70s. Anyone in the Keys can confidently expect today to be muggy and warmer than normal.

Prepare for a prolonged period hot, muggy weather across the Florida Keys this week. There is high confidence that a Saharan Air Layer will set up over Southern Florida early in the work week. Drier air aloft will trap humidity near the surface and result in heat indices approaching 108 degrees. Meanwhile, a mid level trough descending out of Canada into the eastern United States will result in the northward movement of the subtropical ridge. Model ensembles are consistently showing a col region setting up across the Keys during the week, so brace for periods of light and variable winds. Anyone concerned about heat this week should take precautions.

While the Saharan Air Layer will not persist through the entire week, it is highly likely that shower coverage will remain below normal for the entire work week. Even after the dust layer is washed out, model ensembles suggest the deeper layers of moisture will continue to be deflected north of the Keys. Statistical guidance suggests rain chances may remain below normal through next weekend. However, the pattern may shift slightly and direct more moisture towards the island chain.

MARINE

Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, breezes are on track to slacken from gentle to moderate to light to gentle across the Florida Keys coastal waters this week. Northward movement of the subtropical ridge away from the Keys will allow a col region to set up between Florida and Cuba. Mariners can expect periods of light and variable breezes this week. Shower coverage will be kept far below normal because of a Saharan Air Layer moving over the Keys waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 422 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH. Near surface winds will remain generally east to southeasterly. A layer of Saharan dust will be able to reduce shower chances to far below normal.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 81 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 90 83 90 81 / 0 0 10 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.