textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate southeasterlies will prevail during the afternoon hours and into Thursday night.

- Periods of elevated shower and thunder chances will continue through the end of the work week.

- Rain chances will return to near normal by the weekend, and will continue through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage started to enter a lull period early in the afternoon near EYW and MTH. TSRA will be able to wax and wane over the Outer Gulf waters and waters south of the Dry Tortugas, but pop up thunderstorms are less likely near the island chain. VCSH will be kept in the TAFs through the overnight hours as another period of SHRA can easily reform after sunset. TSRA chances overnight will linger, but the environment is primed to become a bit less favorable overnight. MVFR to IFR VIS and CIGs are possible near showers.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Little change is expected in the synoptic setup through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, broad lower level troughing will lumber its way westward across the Bahamas and northern Caribbean Sea and through our area. There is no reason to shift from the advertised above normal rain and thunder chances. Expect gentle to moderate easterlies to generally peak during the overnight hours and lull during the day. No trend in temperatures are anticipated with highs remaining near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s.

Heading into this weekend and persisting into next week, some drying will take place through the lower levels. The lower levels will become better dominated by the Atlantic ridge to our north and mid to upper level ridging should be able to expand westward across Florida. These factors should allow shower and thunder chances to slip back towards normal. Gentle to moderate breezes will continue to peak and lull as in prior days and no trend in temperatures or surface moisture is expected.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge balled up off the mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward through northern Florida and along the Gulf coast. This has allowed a relatively tighter pressure gradient to shift into our area and correspondingly moderate easterly breezes. These moderate easterlies will surge and lull through the remainder of the week and into next week, often lulling substantially during the day and peaking in the overnight hours. While cautions cannot be ruled out the entire forecast, they do not appear likely at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40 Marathon 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.