textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding in the Upper Keys and minor to moderate coastal flooding in the Lower to Middle Keys is ongoing, especially around high tide.

- A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters. A Gale Watch is in effect for all the Florida Key coastal waters from early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. - Fast-moving scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move through the area until at least Tuesday night. Any of this activity will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 928 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026 A proliferation of fast-moving scattered showers are tracking towards the southwest around 25 to 30 knots across our waters this evening. This is consistent with around 26 kts of mean northeasterly flow up to 10kft per the 00Z KKEY RAOB. These showers have been producing measured gusts of 30-37kts at a few of our surrounding marine observation sites despite being shallow and rather transient. Looking further north, the same can be said for much of the east coast of Florida. Low-level moisture has rebounded quite a bit since this time yesterday, although a deep layer of dry air is still present above 500mb. Taking a look at the bigger picture, the Keys remain sandwiched between a sprawling deep-layer ridge extending from the western Gulf north-northeast across the eastern CONUS towards the Great Lakes region while stagnant troughing extends south along the Eastern Seaboard with a portion of the trough cutoff over the Bahamas and eastern Caribbean. Northeasterly low/mid-level flow between these two features is being pinched and enhanced, particularly in the lower-levels. Hi-res guidance indicates the nocturnal wind surge will begin over the following hours, but we've already been seeing sporadic yet sometimes consistent gusts in the 25-30 kt range even outside of the shower activity. As such, a Gale Watch was hoisted for all marine zones beginning at 5 am tomorrow morning as gusts of 30-35 kts become possible. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until then.

Despite being on the western side of the Caribbean trough, we're close enough to be grazed by pockets of higher low-level moisture in addition to spokes of low-level vorticity advection. This combined with ample low-level speed convergence will continue to generate scattered to numerous showers through tonight and into tomorrow, although coverage will likely be highest in the eastern portions of the forecast area, particularly the eastern Straits of Florida. Rainfall accumulations, per radar, have generally been around a tenth of an inch or less over any given area due to the quick motions, so flooding is not much of a concern beyond what is already occurring from King Tides.

MARINE

Issued at 928 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys marine zones, and a Gale Watch will be in effect for all zones by early Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Frequent gusts to near 35 knots outside of shower activity are possible from early Monday to early Tuesday morning.

From synopsis, sprawling high pressure over the eastern United States and a persistent low south of the Bahamas will be able to sustain fresh to strong breezes overnight. Near gale wind gusts are possible for all the Florida Keys waters early Monday morning through Tuesday. In addition, pulses of low level moisture will support elevated shower chances. Gale force wind gusts are possible even near shallow showers. Wave heights will stay elevated through mid week even after breezes begin to slacken.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026 VFR conditions are prevailing at both TAF sites early this morning. SHRA continues to track to the southwest, but the activity is remaining east of the terminals. Guidance suggests higher chances for a passing shower this afternoon, but most of the activity will remain in the vicinity. Pressure gradient winds remain elevated from the N/NE around 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts, but brief higher gusts may occur in and near shower activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 75 84 76 84 / 40 30 20 30 Marathon 75 84 75 84 / 60 40 30 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

Gale Watch from 5 AM EDT early this morning through late tonight for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.