textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the middle of the week.

- Light to gentle breezes (except gentle to moderate, becoming gentle in the Straits) will continue across the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight.

- Conditions are setting up for a potential cloud line to development over or adjacent to the Florida Keys on Tuesday. This would also carry a risk for possible waterspouts.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The 00z evening sounding a mostly dry profile once again, though unstable with a CAPE value measured of 3058 J/kg. The PWAT value measured is less than last evening indicating drier air has moved into the region. The value measured was 1.73 inches which is near the median for the date. Also, the wind profile isn't that representative or what we would expect to see sustained shower activity with mostly northeast to east winds in the lowest few thousand feet. Therefore, we lack the moisture and trigger, though, we have the instability, any showers that do try to develop may easily become a thunderstorm as they feed on the instability. No changes expected to the ongoing forecast as a result.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a frontal boundary will press south overnight across the Florida Peninsula and stall across central Florida. This will act to weaken a broad high strewn across the region and allow for slackening breezes Tuesday. Conditions are favorable for a cloud line to develop over or across the waters adjacent to the Florida Keys on Tuesday. This may support the development of waterspouts. Breezes may briefly go light and variable Wednesday and Wednesday evening, before resuming a cycle of overnight peaks and daytime lulls.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH terminals. Near surface winds will remain mostly easterly overnight, then shift to the east to southeast Tuesday morning before becoming variable Tuesday afternoon. Since winds are expected to become variable, a cloud line is anticipated once again for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 83 / 10 10 20 30 Marathon 89 83 89 83 / 10 10 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.