textproduct: Key West

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The weather has been in flux through the overnight. There was convection just prior to midnight and most of it has now dissipated. There is a small cluster across the extreme southeast Gulf that has just pushed out of our waters. Elsewhere, we are watching a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms located near Andros Island. This activity has not made much movement away from its source region. Nonetheless, moisture continues to push into the region ahead of an approaching, weak easterly undulation.

Rain chances will steadily increase throughout the day, from east to west. With that being said, we did have a lot of boundaries get deposited across the region last night. Any one of these boundaries could come to life if the right conditions are met during the morning hours. It will be an evolving situation and folks are asked to keep an eye on the sky today as conditions could deteriorate rapidly.

Rain chances will remain elevated even as the first undulation moves through this evening. Behind this will be a weak shortwave riding along the periphery of a broad ridge centered across the North Atlantic. This next feature will pivot through and exit quickly by Friday morning. Right on the heels will be the next SAL plume and this will promptly shut down the moisture hose as well as rain chances.

Surprisingly the models are not catching on to this fact. Despite that the models show a deep (850-300 mb) dry layer, models are going out with high-end chance to likely PoPs. Given what SALs can do, felt that the very low (10-20 percent) PoPs were more reasonable going into the weekend and early next week. Off on the distant horizon there appears that we may have a brief intermission in the SAL as a weak moisture plume comes through but it's nothing to hang our hats on at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A broad area of surface high pressure sliding eastward in the central North Atlantic will lead to gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through mid- week. As the axis of the associated ridge sags slightly further southward across the Florida Peninsula, moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will be possible late this week. A surge in moisture today through Thursday will support elevated rain and thunder chances, with drier conditions expected for Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mostly gentle southeast breezes. Latest guidance shows showers and thunderstorms developing across eastern portions of the area around 11/14-15z and continuing into the evening hours. This is expected to be in association with the ongoing thunderstorm cluster near Andros Island currently. Any showers and storms that develop will slowly migrate their way to the west during the day. Any showers and storms will be capable of reducing VIS and CIGs to MVFR, potentially IFR. Activity will also be capable of producing heavy downpours, frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds in and around convection.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys Weather History, the record daily rainfall of 2.50 inches was recorded in Key West set back in 1999. Local climate report says the rain fell in less than three hours, and the associated thunderstorms produced wind gusts estimated 50 to 60 mph and minor damage on Stock Island. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

The daily record rainfall of 2.80 inches was recorded in Marathon set back on this date in 1997. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 89 80 89 81 / 50 60 60 40 Marathon 89 80 89 81 / 60 60 60 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.