textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters.

- Windy conditions will continue across the Keys through Wednesday morning. Breezes will gradually slacken thereafter through Friday morning.

- Breezes will once again freshen late Friday through the early next week, with another period of windy conditions for the Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 935 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026 The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a well-mixed layer from the surface up to 950 mb, with a generally stable layer above, and a strong cap of copious dry air above 775 mb. The sounding also sampled a low-level veering profile. Coupled with sea surface temperatures remaining in the mid 80s across the Straits, KBYX and KAMX available Doppler radars continue to highlight a few isolated showers, mainly in the vicinity of the Upper Keys as well as the Straits of Florida 20 to 60 nm offshore of the Keys.

For the rest of today, the Florida Keys will remain sandwiched between a continental high pressure system centered over southern Canada, and a Nor'easter a centered a few hundred miles off the Carolina coastline. This will support a continued strong pressure gradient and associated windy conditions. While an isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out for the balance of today, most island communities will remain dry. The inherited 10% PoP seems on track, most likely verifying between Key Largo and Ocean Reef. No changes proposed.

MARINE

Issued at 935 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. Winds will begin to slacken and seas subside throughout the day on Wednesday, before breezes once again freshen by late Friday through the weekend. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for that time frame, with near-gale winds possible, especially Saturday night through Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 935 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026 Although a passing shower cannot be ruled out, especially in the favored overnight period, impacts to ceilings and visbilities from any activity should be minimal. Near-surface winds out of the northeast will frequently gust to 20 to 25 knots through 12z Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 86 77 84 76 / 0 10 0 10 Marathon 86 76 84 75 / 10 0 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.