textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Upper Keys around the times of high tide.

- Rain chances will near to below normal through mid week, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, with much cooler "sweater weather" possible in its wake through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 434 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Overnight was a little more active than last night. With that being said, we've only had widely scattered showers, mainly west of the Seven Bridge overnight. These showers have remained relatively shallow and once again no lightning has been observed in any of the activity. Meanwhile, winds have gone east to southeast thanks to a sprawling, surface high pressure currently moving into the Southeast U.S. This wind direction has also kept it quite mild and muggy across the island chain. In fact, if temperatures don't fall out of the 80s this morning or this evening before midnight, we'll set new records for warm minimum temperatures.

The aforementioned surface high will pivot a pocket of drier air across the region today and tonight. This will limit rain chances to 10 percent or less through the same period. Given the high's proximity to our region, we can continue to see winds fluctuate between 5 to 10 mph and briefly 10 to 15 mph at times. In addition, we can expect above normal temperatures along with muggy conditions to persist today through Wednesday.

By Wednesday, a surface low diving out of Canada will undergo rapid strengthening. As this occurs, it will initially shove the high out across the Atlantic, just northeast of the Bahamas. As the low gathers strength on Thursday and builds it will continue to push the high further out over open water. Meanwhile, an attendent strong cold front looks poised to sweep through late Thursday into early Friday. As a result the Keys will see winds quickly box around the compass, going from east to southeast on Wednesday to southwest to west by Thursday. As the front gets closer there may be enough instability and lift associated with the front to allow for some isolated thunderstorms to develop. In addition, we will see wind speeds steadily increasing ahead of the front and peaking on Friday in its wake. Dew points and temperatures will thankfully take a dip but will be short-lived.

Additionally, this first round of winds will be relatively short as well as a strong high from Canada dives southeast and shoves this low out across the North Atlantic. This will result in a brief lull in winds but as this next high moves further east, it will send a reinforcing backdoor front across the region. We could potentially see a prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions early next week. Stay tuned!

MARINE

Issued at 434 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Widely scattered showers are mainly confined the Southeast Gulf and the far western waters of the Straits of Florida. Outside of any convection, we can expect gentle to occasionally moderate easterly breezes today. Those waters immediately in the lee of the southwest Mainland, will see a brief period of light to gentle breezes. Otherwise, high pressure currently located across the Southeast U.S. will move north and northeast of the Bahamas through the day and into Wednesday. This will lead to slackening breezes and quickly clocking around from the south and southwest. By Thursday, an approaching strong cold front will further clock winds from the west and northwest and gradually allow for freshening breezes. Confidence remains high that a period of fresh to potentially strong breezes will accompany in the wake of the frontal passage. Thereafter, a strong Canadian High will dive southeast initially bringing a relative lull to breezes but is expected to push through a backdoor front. This has the potential to bring a prolonged period of fresh to strong breezes for early next week. Mariners should check back through the week as we get closer to the event.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 434 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. There is a small chance that isolated showers may develop in-situ near the terminals around sunrise. Otherwise, near surface winds will remain east to southeast at 10 knots or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 85 77 85 76 / 10 20 30 30 Marathon 85 78 85 77 / 10 10 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.