textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence breezy to windy conditions will last through the weekend, and into the start of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Keys coastal waters.

- Shower coverage expected to gradually decrease today and tonight. Dry air will move in by Saturday reducing shower activity.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is out for the Upper Keys because of a strong northeast swell.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. As moisture still lingers through this evening, light showers are possible but no mention was necessary in TAFs due to the lack of strength of showers. Near surface winds will be northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026 A broad high pressure system set up over the Carolinas yesterday and pushed a frontal boundary far south of the Florida Keys. Breezy conditions set up across the entire island chain. Despite the boundary being located near Cuba, sinking air has not been able to make it to the Keys. Dew points along the island chain still range from the upper 60s to near 70. The KBYX radar continues to show shallow showers across the Florida Straits, though showers are capped below about 10,000 feet. All signs point to weather being drier and breezy across the Keys.

There is high confidence that the high pressure system setting up over the eastern United States will be pretty long lasting. Statistical model guidance calculated a very small spread in wind speeds between the 10th and 90th percentile, about 5 mph, across the CWA. Meanwhile, the region of sinking air aloft is on track to move further south towards the Keys. For better or worse, model ensembles suggest winds will remain elevated through the weekend and into next week. Any outdoor plans this weekend should take these breezes into account, because odds are they will be sticking around for a while.

MARINE

Issued at 1111 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, fresh to strong breezes will persist across all Florida Keys coastal waters through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in place. There is high confidence breezes will not begin to slacken to moderate to fresh until at least Tuesday. Drier air will gradually move towards the Florida Keys, so occasional shallow showers will linger through tonight.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.