textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Keys Coastal Waters except the outer Gulf waters where Small Craft Should Exercise Caution.

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods.

- Uncertainty remains high for the end of the week and into this weekend with rain chances. - A general 1-3" of rainfall and thunderstorms, with locally higher amounts, are possible at most island communities Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 534 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Light scattered showers have been popping up around the coastal waters through the early morning in the Florida Keys. Though some of these showers have briefly crossed over the island chain, not much rainfall has been measured in any location. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s this morning with dew points in the mid 70s. The observation sites at the Reef are reporting winds of near 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Florida Bay, Bay/Gulf side waters, Hawk Channel, and Straits of Florida, in the outer Gulf waters small craft should exercise caution. The Atlantic high that has been driving the elevated winds will weaken sometime today as it drifts further east allowing for the pressure gradient to loosen, at that time Small Craft headlines are expected to come down as those winds slacken. Shower activity for today and tonight will continue to be quick in nature similarly to what we have been experiencing for the last few days.

For the remainder of the week into the weekend, a unsettled weather pattern will move into the area along with moisture surge from the veering winds to the southeast to south as the high retreats further east. This will allow for higher rain chances. Confidence on exact precipitation chances have continued to be a little lower with a lot of guidance disagreeing on them so opted to keep chance showers for the time being until details get more clear and can lock down exact rain chance values. At this time, Friday through Sunday look like the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms for the Florida Keys. Stay tuned for any updates to the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 534 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in Effect for the Florida Bay, Bay/Gulf side waters, Hawk Channel, and Straits of Florida, while small craft should exercise caution in the outer Gulf waters. Winds will start to slacken mid morning to this afternoon. From synopsis, an Atlantic high pressure system centered south and southwest of Bermuda will support moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes through tonight. Breezes will noticeably slacken and veer to the southeast to south as the high slides eastward and weakens starting later today. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Brief showers are possible at either terminal starting after sunrise and at that time VCSH has been introduced. Near surface winds will continue to be southeasterly at near 15 knots with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031-032- 035-042>044-052>055-072>075.