textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Gale Watch in effect for Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Gale-force winds may develop beginning as early as Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday morning.

-A strong cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Saturday, with a line of showers expected along and just ahead of the frontal passage.

-Very cold and windy conditions are expected Saturday evening through at least Monday morning. A Wind Advisory and/or a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be required for portions or all of the Florida Keys.

-The strong onshore winds may result in minor to moderate coastal flooding on our gulf and bay side waters late Saturday and Coastal Flood Statements/Advisories may be required.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Quiet weather remains along the Keys for the time being. A broad disorganized low pressure complex across the Florida region is resulting in broadly gentle northwest to northerly breezes across the Keys. Skies are a mix of partly to mostly cloudy due to multiple low to mid level decks. Surface conditions have moderated quite a bit today with temperatures currently in the lower 60s and dew points not much lower at near 60. Despite this, stable conditions persist with zero CAPE and considerable dry air through the lower to mid levels. Earlier shower and rain patches have long since moved eastward out of the area.

The complicated low will swing east and northeastward into the Atlantic and consolidate into a deepening low. As a result, winds will remain light out of the northwest to north. This flow should allow surface dew points to drop a few degrees overnight. Nearshore gulf and bay side waters, currently in the mid 60s, should cool a few degrees overnight and help to hold overnight lows near 60 for most island locations. Rain chances will remain essentially nil for much of the island chain.

Looking ahead, the long anticipated powerful cold front is currently driving southeastward through the Gulf. As the front nears the Keys, expect winds to surge out of the northwest Saturday morning to near 25 mph and gusty, accompanied by scattered to numerous showers. Winds are expected to strengthen further to 30 to 35 mph with frequent gusts of 45 mph late Saturday as a powerful 1040-1045 mb high spills southward down the Plains. A Wind Advisory will likely be required for this period. In addition, the strong winds may result in minor coastal flooding on our gulf and bay side waters. These breezes, along with Saturday night temperatures falling possibly into the 30's in the Upper Keys and near or just below 50 in the Lower Keys will result in wind chills in the 20's to 30's, respectively.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

A disorganized array of low pressure centers around the Florida Peninsula will consolidate off the Atlantic coast overnight. This will keep breezes broadly gentle out of the northwest to north. A powerful cold front will blast southeastward through Keys waters on Saturday. Winds are expected to initially surge to 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots Saturday morning, accompanied by showers. Cold air will continue to pour across Keys waters with breezes freshening even further to near 35 knots with gusts near 40 knots. A Gale Watch remains in effect from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions expected overnight at island terminals. A powerful cold front will sweep through the Keys on Saturday. A round or two of sub VFR conditions are possible due to showers ahead of the front. Winds will surge out of the northwest in wake of the cold front, likely bringing sub VFR ceilings and northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 30 to 35 knots. Winds are expected to strengthen further late in the afternoon and evening.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Gale Watch from 4 AM EST Saturday through Sunday morning for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.