textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding in the Upper Keys and minor to moderate coastal flooding in the Lower to Middle Keys is ongoing, especially around high tide.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected from today through early next week. Near-gale breezes will be possible at times Sunday evening through Monday evening, especially SE Gulf. - Little to no relief from significant coastal and marine impacts are expected into at least the middle of next week. Residents and visitors should take the necessary actions to protect flood- prone property.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 Breezy weather ushered in the second to last weekend of October across the Florida Keys. Showers and thunderstorms were able to wax and wane over the Straits of Florida after sunrise, but have since started to dissipate as drier air filters into the Florida Keys. The morning 12Z KKEY sounding sampled a couple of dry layers over the islands. The subsident region of an upper level trough was well sampled above 30 kft, and a mid level dry region was present above 700 mb. The trend, based on the movement of water vapor on GOES East satellite imagery, is that shower development will become less and less likely before sunset. While mostly sunny skies are expected across the Keys, coastal flooding will continue to be a concern. There are no changes expected for the Coastal Flood Advisories for the Lower and Middle Keys, and the Coastal Flood Warning will remain in effect for the Upper Keys. This afternoon, breezy conditions will prevail across the island chain amidst mostly sunny skies.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The omega block pattern across much of the United States is expected to remain in place today and tonight. At the surface, low pressure will continue to fester and try to organize to the east over or near the Bahamas. An upper level trough will continue to swing through the Keys which actually should end the current ongoing activity across the Straits of Florida and SE Gulf early this morning. Any showers and thunderstorms today and tonight should mainly remain across the eastern portions of the area out to the Bahamas and south towards Cuba. Current guidance suggests the Island Chain remaining dry for the next 24 hours outside of perhaps some sprinkles maybe this afternoon or a brief passing light shower. Breezy conditions will continue today and tonight as the low continues to fester near/over the Bahamas and the high across the Northeast U.S. remains anchored in place. This will keep a strengthened pressure gradient across the area. Outside of that, temperatures will remain comfortable in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 453 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters today. From synopsis, strengthening high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic region will interact with a developing disturbance in the eastern Caribbean, supporting freshening northeasterly breezes over the next several days. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. Breezes will peak Sunday night through Tuesday, when strong to near gale breezes will be possible. The freshening breezes and a surge of moisture may also support elevated rain and thunderstorm chances through Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. Near surface winds will remain northeasterly with occasional to frequent gusts. Showers are well south of the island terminals, and thus VCSH was not included. Cloud cover will continue to wax and wane, but there is high confidence that any CIGs present will be above VFR heights.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1943, the daily record rainfall of 1.60" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. Also, on this day in 1971, the daily record rainfall of 1.82" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 74 82 75 / 10 10 20 40 Marathon 81 73 82 74 / 20 10 30 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.