textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms expected today and tonight. - Mainly light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue into the weekend, though occasional periods of moderate breezes will occur, especially south of the Island Chain.

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage has generally diminished across the Florida Keys coastal waters early this afternoon, but a zone of isolated activity has developed along a boundary north of the Lower Keys in the southeastern Gulf. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of this thunderstorm activity. Current marine observations indicate the forecast is on track with generally light to gentle south-southeasterly breezes. Breezes will take on more of an easterly heading by this evening. From synopsis, the western periphery of an Atlantic high is expected to maintain control of the Keys for the next several days. This will continue to promote peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak in the evening through early morning hours and lull in the afternoons. In addition, the southeasterly flow will also keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Convection has develop along an outflow boundary north of KEYW, but activity is moving further away from the terminal. Potential for additional development in the wake of this activity is low, so mention of precip was removed from the TAFs for the remainder of the day. Therefore, aviation impacts are not expected with VFR conditions set to continue. High moisture content will support isolated to scattered storms again tomorrow morning, especially in the eastern part of the area, and a PROB30 was included from 10-14Z at KMTH. The western periphery of the Atlantic high remains extended across the area, promoting southeast to easterly sfc winds of 5 to 8 kts.

FORECAST

The forecast for today is tricky to say the least. Multiple CAMS- Convective Allowing Mesoscale System models show quite the ramp up in activity shortly after daybreak, especially in the vicinity of the Upper Keys. Any activity that forms, if they do, are anticipated to move southwest to west through the Keys with the threat ending by the early afternoon. Nearly all the guidance shows a shower/storm free late afternoon through evening and into the overnight hours. However, with that said, a shower or storm or two still cannot be completely ruled out. Due to the nature of the past few days, rain chances have been nudged down across the board for today and tonight with 30% for today and 20% tonight. Guidance suggests this pattern once again showing more moisture and even some added upper level support as we head through the weekend. Therefore, the rain chances return to 40% for Saturday and Saturday night with 50% for Sunday. Granted with the way this pattern has been playing out, adjustments to the rain chances are plausible. Outside of the moisture, east to southeast breezes will continue to be on a peaking and lulling regime. Peak breezes will continue to be during the evening and overnight with lulls during the afternoons as the western periphery of the Atlantic high maintains control. Daytime highs near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s.

Global and numerical model guidance suggests this pattern remaining into the middle of next week with elevated rain chances continuing and breezes peaking and lulling through the period. However, rain chances will be subject to change as we have seen in recent days. A complicated pattern to say the least especially since we have all this moisture in place but it has been a struggle at times to keep showers and thunderstorms ongoing. Also, September is 4 days away and also the time when average rain chances peak (35%). Therefore, daily showers and thunderstorms are perfectly normal for this time of the year.

TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is continuing advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly across the Central Tropical Atlantic and this system does not pose a threat to the Florida Keys.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 91 83 90 / 10 30 40 50 Marathon 83 90 83 90 / 20 40 40 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.