textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds through Tuesday.

- Confidence continues to increase for a potentially wet and thundery period Wednesday through next Sunday.

- A general 2-4" of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are possible at most island communities for this period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026 Scattered showers were much more widespread than initially anticipated this morning. It appears a subtle increase in low- level veering and 900-800 mb layer moisture sampled in the 12z morning sounding at KEY were just enough to increase shower coverage. All available convective allowing model (CAM) guidance initialized quite poorly, which we remain a bit puzzled over. CIMSS satellite- derived total precipitable water products highlight drier air slowly filtering across the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore marine zones at this late morning hour. For the balance of today, we are only anticipating a few remaining passing showers across the Island Chain. Coupled with ample sunshine, temperatures in the upper 80s, and dew points in the mid 70s, another day of heat indices approaching 100F expected today. Stay cool, Florida Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 1054 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines remain posted for the marine zones south of the Island Chain, including Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida. These will likely need to be extended to all marine zones later this afternoon for freshening breezes. From synopsis, a North Atlantic high pressure system centered near Bermuda will support fresh east to southeast breezes through Tuesday night. Breezes will noticeably slacken and veer to the southeast to south, as the high slides eastward and weakens by mid- week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by the middle of the work week.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026 Despite a passing shower possible, especially early in the TAF period near MTH, VFR conditions will prevail. Near surface winds out of the east to southeast at 10 to 12 knots will increase to 12 to 15 knots around sunset tonight, with frequent gusts near 20 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 81 90 81 / 20 30 20 20 Marathon 86 80 87 80 / 20 30 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.