textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will briefly slacken overnight and gradually freshen starting Saturday afternoon.

- Mainly dry conditions along with near-normal temperatures will continue today.

- Despite rainfall last week, the Florida Keys remain in Moderate Drought conditions. These conditions may worsen over the next couple of days due to lack of measurable rainfall for most locations.

- A backdoor front will push through the Florida Keys late this weekend, supporting windy conditions, but little change in temperatures in its wake.

MARINE

Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The axis of a remnant low level ridge lies just to our north across central Florida. This axis will slowly slide southward tonight into Saturday in advance of an approaching frontal boundary. As it slides south, breezes will initially slacken as the pressure gradient becomes briefly nebulous. As the frontal boundary approaches Saturday night into Sunday, expect freshening breezes. In the wake of the frontal passage, expecting a period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes to continue into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 324 PM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period outside of any passing isolated showers. Northeast to east winds will slacken overnight into Saturday morning. Expect breezes to freshen beginning in the late afternoon Saturday.

FORECAST

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern across the Florida Keys through at least Saturday. This will continue the gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes today. Breezes will begin to shift to the northeast overnight with this continuing through Saturday. Slight surges in moisture remain on track to occasionally move through the Keys resulting in slight chances of showers. Any showers will be brief and transitory with the timing on any of these showers remaining difficult to pin down. There are some indications in the hi-res model guidance of showers forming over the mainland tonight and again on Saturday which may move off and drift southwestward due to the northeasterly steering flow aloft. It remains to be seen just how robust this activity may be. The main risk with this activity will be the potential for frisky outflow winds due to quite a bit of dry air aloft. The best chances for this activity appears to be late Saturday and Saturday night based on the latest guidance. Therefore, if you have plans across the waters to the north of the Chain, some showers could approach from the northeast and bring a quick burst of gusty winds and a few quick downpours.

Then a front approaching from the north will sort of pivot its way across Florida. It will take the strong Canadian high pressure building in behind it to help push it through the Keys sometime Saturday night or Sunday. As the high slides eastward and moves off the East Coast on Sunday, it will act to push the front southwestward (backdoor) sending it through the Keys. This will result in an increased pressure gradient across the area leading to a prolonged period of windy to potentially very windy conditions in the extended time frame. We expect the breezy conditions to begin Saturday night before becoming windy sometime Sunday and continuing well into the middle of next week. Moisture surges are also expected to move through the Keys in the easterlies resulting in episodic showers. It is still early but there are some indications for modest instability which may result in the risk for a couple thunderstorms. As a result, thunder was added to the nearshore waters north of the Chain for Saturday night. Stay tuned!

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 73 82 73 81 / 10 10 20 10 Marathon 73 82 73 81 / 10 10 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.