textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances expected through the week, peaking tonight through Thursday.

- Light to gentle east to southeast breezes expected this morning, becoming gentle for this afternoon and tonight, except becoming gentle to moderate for the Straits of Florida tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 124 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Rain and thunderstorm activity has diminished greatly across the Florida Keys coastal waters over the last hour or two. There will be low chances for additional development through the remainder of the day, but higher chances will return tonight as deeper moisture content arrives from the southeast. From synopsis, the western periphery of an Atlantic high is expected to maintain control of the Keys for the next several days. This will promote peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak in the evening through early morning and lull in the afternoons. The strongest surge of breezes is anticipated to be Wednesday night where mostly moderate breezes are expected throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions are in place at both terminals and is expected to continue through most of the period. An outflow boundary, which briefly produced RA at KMTH, has moved north of the island chain, and the low-level cu field largely cleared out after the boundary passage. Short term guidance is not aggressive on additional development this afternoon as the airmass aloft still remains somewhat dry. I did add a PROB30 for SHRA towards the end of this cycle (10-14Z) as deeper moisture is forecast to arrive across the area and will support higher chances of RA. Will likely need to add mention of TS in a subsequent TAF issuance as confidence improves for tomorrow morning.

FORECAST

The pattern for the next several days can be summed up with the western periphery of Atlantic ridging remaining over the Keys along with bouts of moisture and embedded subtle upper level shortwaves traversing through. As moisture continues to round the western side of the high, rain chances will gradually increase through the week. Peak rain chances are expected tonight through Thursday at 50%. In addition, east to southeast breezes will peak in the evenings and overnight and lull in the afternoons.

The interesting time frame still looks to be late week into the weekend when a stronger shortwave presses through the Keys. For now, rain chances decrease slightly for this time frame, though, there is the chance that these will increase in the coming days. Therefore, late week is potentially setting up to be the bigger show as we will have basically all the ingredients lined up for robust convection. We will have the instability, moisture, and lift all lining up at the same time. More simply put, expect a more unsettled weather pattern for the foreseeable future which is entirely normal for this time of the year. Average rain chances peak for the month of September, which is only a week away. It is also hard to pinpoint exact timing for convection as basically just expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated for the next several days. In addition, expect daytime highs near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Of course, temperatures may fall into the upper 70s where any showers and storms move over.

TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 2 areas across the Atlantic Ocean with none of these systems currently posing a threat to the Keys. The area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic now has a 60% percent or medium chance of developing through 48 hours and a 70% percent or high chance of development through the next 7 days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 90 83 90 / 50 50 40 50 Marathon 82 90 82 90 / 50 50 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.