textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions will wane slightly tonight while the approach of a cold front elevates rain chances. After the front passes, mainly dry conditions will follow for the rest of the forecast period.

- Light to gentle breezes will prevail during the work week. Near normal temperatures will increase to above normal highs mid week.

- A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 945 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

Florida weather was rather active today. A fast-moving surface low swept through the Deep South in the afternoon. The northeastern parts of the state were briefly under a Tornado Watch thanks to this system. The Florida Keys were not subject to the same kind of active weather. While a wind surge occurred in the morning hours because of the developing low and a high pressure system in the Atlantic, light to gentle breezes were measured along the reef this evening. Meanwhile, the mostly clear skies are allowing temperatures to slowly drop across the island chain. Temperatures in the lower to mid 70s are paired with dew points in the mid to upper 60s. The KKEY 00Z balloon sampled an environment with a near normal PWAT, slightly above the 50th percentile, and lightly veering winds from the surface to 8 kft. However, a very well-defined temperature inversion of about 8 degrees F will cap any showers that try to develop. The problem is that a pre-frontal environment lingers over the Keys, and the cold front associated with the aforementioned low is on track to move across the Keys tomorrow morning. Statistical guidance indicates the front will be relatively dry, only a slight chance of showers, and temperatures are expected to drop to the climatological norms. Prepare for some gusty conditions during frontal passage and a possible shower. Any weather preparations in the Keys will be much easier than the counties in California that are under Winter Storm Warnings.

MARINE

Issued at 945 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 From synopsis, a low pressure system will slide east from Georgia into the Atlantic tonight. A cold front attached to this system is pushing south across the Gulf towards the Keys coastal waters. Gentle to moderate southerly to southwesterly breezes will veer northwesterly by late Monday. No potent surge in breezes is expected with this front. Breezes may slacken slightly after the front before veering easterly on Tuesday. Light to gentle breezes will prevail through mid week while another high pressure system moves from the Carolinas into the western Atlantic.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 945 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the TAF period. Winds are veering ahead of a cold frontal passage forecast between 12 and 18Z. Short lived MVFR CIGs are possible near and along the front and any showers that manage to form. While unlikely, VCSH conditions were added to the TAFs at both sites. After 18Z, expect skies to rapidly clear and breezes to shift northwesterly. Occasional gusts are possible, but not at magnitudes to warrant inclusion.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 67 77 63 77 / 20 30 0 0 Marathon 69 77 65 77 / 20 20 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.