textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above normal temperatures and mid 70s dew points will move in tonight. - Light to gentle southeasterly breezes will prevail this evening, with a fairly short-lived increase in speeds overnight and into Saturday.

- Rain chances will remain low through at least Saturday. A wetter and thundery pattern is becoming increasingly likely for Saturday night through Monday, although there is low confidence in total rainfall amounts at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH island terminals through 18z Saturday afternoon, with just FEW to SCT fair weather clouds based at around 020 and 050 heights. Surface winds through 03z will remain generally out of the southeast at 5 to 7 knots, slowly veering to the southeast to south and freshening to near 10 knots thereafter.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026 Our weather will begin transitioning heading into the weekend as a mid latitude trough begins swinging through the eastern United States. Initially a deepening surface trough will push northeastward across northern Florida tonight, leading to a short spell of moderate southerly breezes. This veered flow will bring in slightly warmer and increasing surface moisture. Expect temperatures to edge slightly upwards with overnight lows struggling to dip below 80 and dew points climbing into the mid 70s. The wind surge will likely dissipate on Saturday as the bulk of the troughs lifts out, leaving a nebulous pressure pattern across the Keys. Continued inhibition will keep rain chances out through this period due as the lower level ridge is shoved eastward across our area by the amplifying mid latitude trough.

By Saturday night, the long lasting period of stable weather will end as the lower level ridge moves out into the Atlantic, leaving a broad zone of increasing moisture and confluent flow through the lower levels and increasing instability. Later on Sunday a southern stream shortwave trough will partially phase with the mid latitude trough and providing additional convective support. However, the surface steering flow will remain weak, suggesting most convection will be driven by diurnal and mesoscale features, including outflow boundary interactions. With that said, the overall setup supports at least high chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Through the first half of the week, the mid latitude trough will lift out into the Atlantic, and the associated frontal boundary will push through the Florida Keys. This will be followed up by building deep layered ridging across the Gulf and Caribbean Sea. Through this, shower and thunder chances will gradually taper off to slim chances. Winds will remain light and variable until mid week where prevailing light southeasterlies build back in as an Atlantic ridge becomes established. Expect near normal temperatures and modest humidity early in the week to gradually increase to a few degrees above normal as the light southeasterlies build in.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to retreat into the Atlantic today, keeping breezes predominantly light southeasterly. A weak low will push across northern Florida tonight into Saturday, supporting a short stretch of moderate southeast to southerly breezes. Winds should slacken again later in the weekend as the pressure gradient flattens. A weak disturbance in the Gulf coupled with increased moisture will support elevated rain and thunder chances for late in the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 86 79 87 77 / 0 0 0 30 Marathon 85 79 86 78 / 0 0 0 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.