textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Breezes slackening across the Florida Keys to end the work week.

-Expect warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend with an accompanied increase in dew point. -A frontal boundary associated with a strong winter storm forecast to push through the Florida Keys next Monday to Monday night.

FORECAST

Multiple shortwave troughs and their associated clipper systems are on track to amplify the broad longwave trough located over the eastern half of North America this weekend. This, in turn, will phase together with another shortwave over the Four Corners region. The result is an environment primed to generate a dangerous winter storm across the southeastern United States. Impacts for the Keys on Saturday to Sunday are light to gentle breezes. Recent ensemble guidance moved the track of the winter storm further north and thus reduced pressure gradient across the Gulf. Statistical models show winds may drop to light and variable Sunday to Sunday night. However, the cold front associated with this winter storm will sweep south across the Gulf on Monday. Currently, cold frontal passage across the Keys is expected on Monday to Monday night. Temperatures and dew points are expected to drop once again, and dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected by Tuesday. Windy conditions are possible next Monday to Tuesday, though right now model guidance suggests breezy weather. The winter storm is still developing, so check back later for an updated forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are posted for the Straits of Florida due to residual seas up to 6 feet. No other watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys nearshore or offshore waters. From synopsis, gentle to moderate northeasterlies will persist across the nearshore and offshore waters through the end of the work week. Shower coverage will diminish today and tonight as winds aloft direct a plume of moisture away from the Keys. Over the weekend, breezes are expected to slacken to light to gentle. A strong winter storm developing over the southeastern United States is responsible for weakening the pressure gradient, and a cold frontal passage associated with this system is expected sometime Monday to Monday Night. Winds will rapidly clock north and freshen to fresh to strong in its wake.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. With that said, a broad field of MVFR ceilings with embedded showers will linger not far to the south, and may periodically impact island terminals. Surface winds will be gentle northeasterlies.

CLIMATE

In 1983, a daily record rainfall of 6.42" was recorded, followed by another 5.69" on the 23rd. The next-wettest day ever recorded in January was 3.38" on January 09, 1953. The 12.11" on these two days alone is more rain than fell in the entire 2nd-wettest January ever (8.21" in January 1970). The 6.42" on the 22nd is the wettest day ever between the dates of December 09 and May 29.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 77 69 78 68 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 77 67 79 67 / 20 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for GMZ052>055-072>075.