textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will be the primary weather concern over the next seven days. Heat indices may creep towards 109 during the afternoons.

- A Saharan Air Layer will linger across the Keys this week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best.

- As we approach closer to the new moon, tide levels will rise but should remain below Coastal Flood Statement levels at this time. Persistent puddles in the typical low spots during high tide are likely saltwater.

FORECAST

The forecast for the next several days will remain fairly benign. A rather large plume of Saharan dust has moved over the region and is expected to remain in place throughout the week and into next weekend. This will act to place a lid on any shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the week. However, there is a TUTT cell that will rotate northwestward as we head into the middle of the week. This TUTT cell may help to provide the lift needed to instigate some shower and thunderstorm activity, especially across western portions of the Florida Keys. Besides that, heat will be the main concern with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid 80s which won't provide much relief from the daytime heat. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s resulting in in heat index values of 105 to 108 degrees just under Heat Advisory criteria. Breezes will tend to peak overnight and lull during the daytime hours while remaining east to southeasterly.

MARINE

Issued at 441 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a ridge axis will stretch west across Central and South Florida this week, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes. The wind speeds will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours before decreasing slightly in the morning and afternoon hours. In addition, a large area of Saharan dust will remain in place across the area for several days and this will result in a rain-free forecast through at least the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 441 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain east to southeast through the period.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low temperature of 86F was recorded at Key West in 2007 and Marathon in 2023. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872 and Marathon in 1951.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 91 85 92 85 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 92 84 92 84 / 0 0 0 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.