textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Some smoke may filter southward across the Keys through the early afternoon from a large wild fire in Collier County.

- Gradual warming and moistening trend will continue, pushing above normal late in the week.

- Light to gentle breezes will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week. - Slight rain chances will begin late in the work week. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1051 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

An Atlantic Ridge extending westward across the Florida Keys is beginning to shift our winds around out of the east. The cooler, shallow waters along and north of the island chain has been resisting this veering motion. Instead winds across these waters are from the northeast, while more east to southeast south of the island chain. The temperature gradient between the warm Gulf Stream and the Florida Bay is very noticeable on satellite. Across the warm Straits of Florida we see a field of strato-cu, north of the Gulf Stream where the water temps quickly fall, skies are cloud free, indicating a more stable air mass.

Across the island chain we are still dealing with a northeast to east wind but we are seeing that east to southeast trying to nudge into the Upper Keys this morning. Despite the wind direction, temperatures are steadily on the up and up with values ranging from 60 to 70 degrees. As we go more easterly along the island chain and reef tract, this will help moderate our temperatures and allow them to rise into the 70s for the majority of the island chain. Therefore, no changes were needed or made to the going forecast cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1051 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Light to gentle breezes will persist into the afternoon for the majority of our waters. The exception will be out across the Straits of Florida where a gradual freshening to gentle to moderate is expected this afternoon. Wind directions across the cooler waters north of the island chain and east of the Florida Shelf will remain more from the northeast and gradually become east through the day and evening. Elsewhere, winds are in the process of veering out of the east and slightly south of east. This gradual clocking motion will continue through the overnight as a ridge across the Atlantic slides further east while expanding back westward towards the Gulf Basin. As this ridge expands, a brief period of moderate to occasionally fresh breezes can be expected across the Straits of Florida overnight.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with light northeast winds gradually becoming east to southeast this afternoon and through the overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Its been a very cold stretch for the Keys. The record minimum high at Marathon was 60 degrees, shattering the old record of 66 degrees dating back to 1973. Earlier in the night, radiational cooling drove temperatures at the office down to 46 degrees. The early radiational cooling was fostered by clear skies and a very cold high centered across the Florida Peninsula. This resulted in nearly calm breezes. In recent hours, light divergent northerly breezes have setup. While gulf and bay waters are cold, they still helped to wash out most of the radiational cooling. Temperatures are now broadly in the lower 50s. Dew points are still down in the lower 40s.

The ridge across Florida will elongate eastward into the Atlantic over the next couple of days, while the western flank lifts northward into Central Florida. This should help to firm up breezes out of the east to southeast from late today into tonight. The huge unknown is how soon winds across the Keys and cooler nearshore waters will be able to veer east. Eventually this shift will happen and help to accelerate moderating temperatures and moisture. At least for today, it will likely be difficult for temperatures to push into the 70s for many locations. As a result, highs will likely range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dew points will slowly climb as the boundary layer breezes gradually clocks southeast to south. Some organized veering is expected, and the first hints of this is showing up as stratocumulus over southern South Florida and the Upper Keys, well to the northwest of the land breeze. Expect additional stratocumulus to spread northwestward across the Keys due to this veering flow.

Through the remainder of the week rain chances will slowly make their appearance. This is due to a shortwave trough riding around the longwave pattern over the eastern United States. This will set up a confluent zone in the eastern Gulf and Florida. This will also eventually erase the subsidence inversion as zonal mid and upper levels transition to broad troughing. Dew points will also climb towards 70 by late in the week and temperatures will climb to slightly above normal. All this should support a few showers. For now, will keep rain chances caped at slight as the forcing is not strong and lower to mid level dry air and Cuban influences will be a mitigating factor. Winds will remain broadly easterly and trend downwards as the surface ridge finally departs to the east.

No significant airmass change or cold front is expected through the extended. Guidance has been pointing to possibly a backdoor cold front limping through the area early next week. This may only act to bump up northeast to easterly breezes and shave a degree or two off of both temperatures and dew points. The faster flow may be supportive of a few showers in the moderated maritime boundary layer.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 72 67 79 70 / 0 0 10 20 Marathon 72 67 78 71 / 0 0 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.