textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding will continue across the Keys during the next several tidal cycles. Coastal flooding will gradually decrease throughout the end of this week, but receding rates may be slow, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will become light to gentle at times through the end of the week with only a slight chance (20%) of rain until the weekend.

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

Issued at 540 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Tide gauges along the Keys reported peak high tide levels approximately 2 to 2.5 ft above normal high tide just after midnight last night. Local Florida DOT cameras showed water over the few roads we could see with the help of streetlights, but some reports suggest that there are roads in low lying neighborhoods that are entirely covered in standing saltwater. Levels are currently trending down as we approach low tide, but another cycle of "higher than normal high tides" will occur again over the next tidal cycle. Therefore, the Coastal Flood Warning will remain in effect through the rest of today and into the overnight hours tonight. Peak water levels are expected to very gradually trend downward after this morning, but it will be a slow trend to return to normal. Northeasterly sustained winds are still trending downward, and this will help water levels ease as well.

Otherwise, weather conditions have been mostly benign overnight and our KBYX radar has continued to detect sloppy and disorganized showers to the south of the island chain. Only a few stray showers brushed portions of the Middle and Upper Keys, and none of our automated observation sites in these locations reported measurable rainfall. Over the Florida Straits, low level windstream analysis depicts a small inverted trough associated with an area of vorticity across the area where the majority of our showers are occurring. As this trough continues to track to the west, a few stray showers may brush the island chain at times. The inherited forecast has advertised a slight chance of showers, around 20% chance, and this seems reasonable given the low level moisture coupled with low level support for shallow showers. Satellite PWAT analysis shows the bulk of the moisture available is between the surface and 850 mb, so these showers likely won't become tall enough to support thunderstorm chances. The good news is that these showers shouldn't have enough "residence time" over any particular island community, and additional rainfall today shouldn't exacerbate coastal flooding impacts. CUrrent temperatures are in the upper 70s, and skies will be a mix of mostly sunny and partly cloudy, depending on where you are across the forecast area. No changes or updates are needed to this very early morning update.

MARINE

Issued at 540 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters, but mariners should be aware of reduced clearance under fixed bridges due to higher than normal high tides. From synopsis, a broad area of high pressure moving across the eastern half of the U.S. will work with a weak inverted trough across the area to encourage gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes through the rest of the week. As the high moves over the southeastern U.S. over the weekend, the gradient will strengthen and the easternmost Hawk Channel and Florida Straits may see 2 to 4 foot northerly swell as a result of this. However, widely spread marine hazards are not expected.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals. A few light showers will continue just south of the island chain near MTH throughout the very early morning hours of the TAF period, and occasional MVFR CIGs may be observed. However, any reduced categories will be very short lived and intermittent. Opting to keep the TAFs dry throughout the entire package. Northeasterly surface winds will remain out of the northeast at 5 to 10 knots.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1892, the daily record low temperature of 59F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest temperature ever recorded in October, and is the earliest fall date on which a temperature below 60F has been recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 85 78 85 78 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 86 77 85 78 / 20 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.