textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong pressure gradient will support a prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions across the Florida Keys.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters for hazardous winds and seas. These conditions will last through the next several periods.

- Shower and thunder chances will decrease during the early part of the week as a dry air mass moves over the Florida Keys.

UPDATE

Issued at 853 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 A drier air mass in the wake of the frontal passage this past weekend continues to gradually advect into the Florida Keys this evening from north to south. Recent imagery on the Blended TPW product shows a substantial PWAT gradient is in place across the region with values around 1.25 inches in the SE Gulf waters near 2 inches just outside the offshore KEY marine zones in the Straits closest to Cuba. Meanwhile, despite this drier air, latest KBYX radar imagery is still detecting some isolated to scattered showers moving southwestward across mostly the distant Straits, though some activity is also moving across the southeast Gulf waters. Given an abundance of dry air aloft, this activity has been mostly low-topped with minimal to no lightning activity but winds are gusty given the quick storm motions in the breezy northeasterly low- level flow. As moisture levels continue to decrease further throughout the overnight period, precipitation coverage will also lessen but it will take a longer period of time to scour out the moisture completely in the low-levels given the close proximity of the frontal boundary to the south. Thus, some activity will linger into Tuesday across the Straits but the island chain should be rain-free. Otherwise, overnight lows will fall to near normal values tonight across the Keys with lows falling into the mid 70s with mostly clear skies and breezy northeasterly winds continuing to prevail.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 Scattered showers have continued to persist in the distant Straits waters from this morning into this afternoon slowly drifting more southerly as the stalled front crawls south. Temperatures have slightly warmed to the lower to mid 80s and with dew points near 70 it is a really nice afternoon. Windy conditions across the Reef are still being reported as well. For the next few periods, the wind will be the main topic as windy to breezy conditions of Small Craft Advisory thresholds will stick through around Tuesday night before slackening. Dry air is moving into the region therefore PoPs completely drop off late tonight and we are left with near nil or slight chances of rain thorugh Thursday. Late this week, another wind surge is forecast as high pressure builds in. Due to the NE flow it could bring in another round of higher chances of rain by next weekend. Models are still unclear on how high rain chances will be so details will get ironed out a little closer to time. Stay tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper Keys. From synopsis, a cold front that has stalled over the southern waters of the Florida Straits will continue to support fresh to strong breezes. Hazardous winds and seas will continue through tonight, thus a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys waters. Fresh to strong northeasterly breezes will prevail through the first half of the week. Breezes will be able to gradually slacken to moderate to fresh during the middle of the week as the front moves over Cuba. Shower chances will decrease through tonight as a drier air mass moves over the Florida Keys.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 853 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 Breezy NE winds are expected throughout the TAF period with winds around 10 to 15 kts and occasional gusts to 20-25 kts at times. Other than the breezy conditions, VFR will prevail across the island chain with near nil rain chances on Tuesday.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.