textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Breezy conditions, with an occasional lull, are developing across the Florida Keys.
- High confidence that breezy to windy weather will last through at least early next week.
- Coastal Flood Statements are out for the Middle and Upper Keys because of a strong northeast swell.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH thorugh the TAF period. Light showers are possible through the evening hours therefore VCSH is included through tonight. Near surface winds will become northeast at 10 to 15 knots and gusting to 20 to 25 knots this evening.
MARINE
Issued at 1159 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters. From synopsis, a pronounced wind surge moved over the northern Florida Keys coastal waters late last night. Breezes will continue to freshen today as result, therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is in place for all of the coastal waters. Seas will be higher in the eastern Straits due to a northeast swell. Drier air and fresh to strong breezes will be in store for the weekend, and are forecast to persist through early next week.
FORECAST
Once the frontal boundary gets forced south towards Cuba, the environment across the Keys will become more predictable. There is high confidence that a rebuilding high pressure system over the eastern United States will push fresh to strong winds south into the Florida Keys waters. Aloft, a very prominent ridge is forecast to center over the northern Gulf. While frontal boundaries and chaotic pressure systems are expected to form across the central United States, there is high confidence weather across the Florida Keys will be dominated by breezy to windy conditions through the weekend. Recent statistical model guidance calculated he 10th to 90th percentile wind speed spread over the weekend to be between the lower and upper 20s. Dry, blustery conditions are set to return across the Florida Keys. Skies should become very favorable for stargazing once this weather pattern sets up.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.
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