textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunder chances will remain near zero for the Keys through the weekend. - Dew points will increase to the mid 70s by the end of the week. Combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, this will support potential elevated heat risk concerns for the weekend.

- Limited total rainfall amounts are expected through early next week for most island communities. This will continue to exacerbate existing drought conditions across the Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 450 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 Surface analysis depicts a generally nebulous synoptic pattern across the Gulf, the Southeast, and the Bahamas. Surface observations and nighttime GOES-19 low-level cloud fields place an elongated area of high pressure centered northeast of Bermuda, with its axis bisecting south-central Florida. Meanwhile aloft, the 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled rising heights above the 825 isobaric surface, as an expansive ridge continues to build eastward across the Florida Keys. This ridge will remain the dominant synoptic feature of interest over the upcoming days, ultimately dictating the sensible weather for the Florida Keys through the weekend. Skies are mostly clear across the Florida Keys, temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s, and KBYX is void of any meteorological echo returns (although there are plenty of northward-migrating birds detected).

A rather routine forecast through at least Sunday. The aforementioned ridge will slowly slide eastward over the next several days while also amplifying. Light southeasterlies will supply modest warm air and dew point advection to the Keys. Forecast soundings suggest cloud cover will be quite limited through at least Sunday, with near-nil rain and thunder chances continuing. Temperatures will become above normal as the ridge sits on top of the Keys by the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 80s (near 90F at a few island communities), and temperatures struggling to get below 80F for the overnight periods in the stagnant light flow.

Early next week, most ensemble mean global guidance suggests a weak frontal boundary will approach the Keys. As is often the case this time of year, the boundary will lose baroclinicity as it approaches South Florida, likely stalling before eventually washing out. However, this may support at least a window of slight to low-end chance rain and thunder potential. Any rainfall will be welcome, given low- to moderate ongoing drought conditions for the Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 450 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a series of weak high pressure systems in the west- central North Atlantic will support light to gentle, mainly southeasterly, breezes over the next several days. Strong upper-level ridging across the Gulf eastward to the Bahamas will also yield near- nil rain and thunder chances through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 VFR conditions will persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through 06z Thursday morning. Near surface winds will remain generally light to gentle out of the southeast, becoming variable at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 87 79 88 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 86 79 87 79 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.