textproduct: Key West

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezes will be light to gentle through Wednesday for the island chain and adjacent bay and gulf side waters. For the Hawk Channel, Florida Straits, and western gulf, expect moderate breezes. Thereafter, expect slackening breezes, becoming light and variable at times.

- Temperatures will remain near normal through the end of the week, and slightly above normal this weekend.

- Nil rain chances are expected for the next several days as dry air remains entrenched across the Keys.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 230 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will start out light to gentle, and broadly out of the east to southeast with slight strengthening through the late afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 High pressure will continue to dominate the pattern for the next several days. The high is currently just of the Southeast U.S. coastline. This high is expected to slowly meander eastward further into the western North Atlantic while flattening. This will result in light to gentle breezes becoming light and variable by Wednesday night continuing into Thursday. Nil rain chances are expected through the period as moisture remains scarce. In the mid to upper levels, a fairly rigorous shortwave trough is expected to traverse across Florida Wednesday/Wednesday night. This will at most result in just some increase in the mid to upper clouds. Temperatures will hover near normal for the next several days along with comfortable humidity. During the periods of light and variable winds, we will need to keep an eye out for potential fog development as the waters surrounding the Chain are quite cool in the 60s. Dew points will begin to further increase into the lower 60s.

As we head through the weekend and into early next week, there may be a brief lull in the quiescent conditions currently being endured. A rather potent upper level low may barrel its way eastward across the North Gulf Coast. This will place the Keys into the warm sector with increasing humidity, rising temperatures, freshening breezes, and increasing moisture. Stay tuned as this is still quite far out yet and the details remain murky.

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure off the Southeast U.S. coastline will slowly meander east out across the Atlantic. This will maintain gentle to moderate breezes across much of the Florida Keys coastal waters through at least Wednesday. Towards the end of the week, the high will flatten across Florida, leading to slackening breezes with a couple periods of brief light and variable breezes. Low pressure developing across the ARK-LA-TEX region and high pressure off the Southeast U.S. coastline will result in freshening east to southeast breezes over the weekend.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.


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