textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A swath of Saharan dry air will remain across the Keys through the first half of the week. Shower chances will remain well below normal.

- Warm and muggy conditions will continue throughout the work week, with breezes remaining light and at times variable.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled unseasonably dry air extending from around 950 mb up to the top of the troposphere. The calculated total precipitable water value of 1.24" was well below the 10th percentile for the date and time of day, and very near the record minimum. Surface analysis a weak stationary front extending from New England southward to the western North Atlantic, which has helped to break the climatological Bermuda High's grip on the wind field for the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, 500 mb geopotential height analysis places a massive anticyclone centered over the Southeast. A rather routine short-term forecast on tap, with mostly sunny skies, temperatures climbing into the lower 90s, and light winds. No changes proposed.

MARINE

Issued at 1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Residual seas will gradually subside this afternoon. From synopsis, a nebulous flow pattern will support gentle east to southeasterly breezes becoming light and variable at times for the next several days. A Saharan Air Layer will keep shower and thunderstorm chances at near-nil through Tuesday night, with only a slight chance of rain and thunder expected for the latter half of the work week.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR conditions will persist at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period, with nil rain chances. Near surface winds out of the east will slacken this afternoon and evening, with winds becoming light and at times variable for the second half of the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 81 92 82 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 89 82 90 84 / 0 0 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.