textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Island cloud line formation will be possible in the late morning or afternoon hours through Monday.

- Waterspouts will be possible with any developing island cloud line.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, with heat indices approaching near 100F each afternoon through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 A broken cloud lone north of EYW warrants mention of VCSH through 13/20z. Thereafter, VFR conditions will prevail across the island terminals through at least 12z Sunday morning. Another broken cloud line may form late in the TAF period, but confidence is too low to include mention in the explicit TAFs at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 The synoptic pattern shifted little from yesterday's analysis. A tropical disturbance is over the Bay of Campeche and is on track to move inland onto Eastern Mexico. High pressure over the Atlantic shifted further east. A very deep mid latitude trough continues to deepen over the Canadian provinces of Nunavut and Ontario. These features are primed to keep the Atlantic high weak and maintain broad lower pressure over the eastern United States through the start of next week. Across the Florida Keys, this means light to gentle breezes and sinking air aloft. Plus, deterministic models are hinting at a more pronounced SAL approaching the Keys next week. Unfortunately, these features are very unlikely to do anything to lower the surface dew point, and model guidance resolves mid 70s dew points throughout the week. The takeaway is that there is high confidence temperatures and heat indices are going to increase next week. Lighter breezes also mean the air may become more stagnant, particularly around the larger islands. Remember to stay hydrated, take breaks, and prepare to deal with the heat.

MARINE

Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys. From synopsis, light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes will persist across the Florida Keys tonight. The combination of a well- developed mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States and a weak disturbance over the Bay of Campeche weakened the ridge over the Caribbean Sea. Breezes are on track to veer southeast to south late in the weekend and early next week.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.