textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-One more day of above normal temperatures and muggy conditions.

-Confidence is high that we will enter an active weather pattern over the next seven days.

-A front will move through late tonight into Thursday with a brief bout of breezy conditions. Look for a secondary, potentially strong front to move through early Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Another night, another round of showers moving from east to west across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. This is thanks to continued pockets of moisture rounding the base of a retreating low level ridge that is out across the central Atlantic. As this ridge exits stage right, winds are decreasing and have backed to the northeast and east. Despite this shift in winds, temperatures this morning remain in the lower to mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. This is making for a muggy morning on top of an already wet one.

Rain chances look to be best this morning as the low level steering flow for now will remain out of the east. An approaching upper level trough is shunting the ridge further out to sea and will clock the steering winds around from the north during the afternoon. This should push the moisture, temporarily, to our south and across the Straits of Florida. Again this is only temporary as an attendent cold front at the surface is poised to move through late tonight into early Monday with a renewed surge of moisture. In addition, we can expect a brief surge in northerly winds with breezy conditions developing late tonight and continuing into at least Monday morning.

Thereafter, the front will stall across the Straits of Florida. A weak high moving in behind this front will allow winds to relax but will also help to funnel moisture along this residual frontal boundary. As a result above normal rain chances will persist through Tuesday and a threat for thunderstorms will return to the Straits of Florida. On Wednesday, a pre-frontal surface trough will move through clocking winds around first to the east and southeast, then south to southwest, and eventually to west and northwest by Wedneday evening. This clocking of winds, coupled with the lingering frontal boundary will expand the threat for thunderstorms to include the majority, if not all of the Florida Keys and surrounding waters.

A second, stronger front is then expected to blast through sometime Thursday. Models, most recently, have come into much better agreement and it is becoming increasingly likely that we see stronger winds on the back side of this front as well as much cooler weather. Overnight lows Thursday will dive into the 50s and highs on Friday may struggle to reach 70 degrees. High pressure quickly filling in behind this next front will clock winds around to the north and northeast for the weekend with a warming trend expected.

MARINE

Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Widely scattered showers are moving from east to west across the coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys. Shower coverage will be greatest this morning and then gradually dwindle into the afternoon. The exception will be the Straits of Florida, where scattered showers may continue through the afternoon. A weak cold front will push through late tonight into early Monday with a brief period of fresh to possibly occasionally strong northerly breezes. Small Craft Advisory conditions are becoming increasingly likely in the wake of the front. Once this front passes through, high pressure will build in, allowing breezes to clock around to the east while maintaining gentle to moderate breezes. A pre- frontal surface trough on Wednesday will precede our next frontal passage expected starting early Thursday. This next front is expected to be stronger with widespread fresh to strong northerly breezes becoming more likely.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

A mix of light to moderate showers across the area will lead to CIGs at both terminals fluctuating between VFR and MVFR throughout today, and into this evening. MVFR conditions will likely be short lived due to the spotty nature of the shower activity, so TAFs will reflect prevailing VFR conditions. Easterly surface winds in the morning will back to the north around 21Z, but crosswind concerns are low at this time as winds will be around 10 to 15 knots tonight.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2010, the daily record low temperature of 39F was recorded in Marathon. This is also the coldest temperature ever recorded during the month of January. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 67 76 69 / 30 20 30 30 Marathon 80 69 77 70 / 40 30 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.