textproduct: Key West

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DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a substantial stable, dry layer from the surface to around the 700 mb isobaric level, following widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight. Over the past hour or two, the atmosphere appears it has begun to recharge, with available KAMX nearby Doppler radar highlighting scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the central and eastern Keys marine zones. Composite atmospheric analysis places a lifting upper-level trough in the northern Gulf, and a decaying low- level trough extending southwestward to the Florida Peninsula from a filling area of low pressure off New England. CIMSS MIMIC tropospheric-integrated precipitable water product shows an expansive area of 2.25-2.50" upstream of the Keys all the way to Andros Island. The forecast calls for one more wet and potentially thundery afternoon, with drier conditions on the horizon beyond tonight. No changes proposed for this late morning update package.

MARINE

Issued at 1134 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect in for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, weak upper-level troughiness, coupled with a decaying frontal boundary draped over the Florida Peninsula, will support bouts of above normal rain chances through tonight. As drier air pushes across the Keys and high pressure builds across the Eastern Seaboard, drier conditions, coupled with light to gentle northeast to east breezes, are expected for Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 While VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period, bouts of scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will likely lurk in the vicinity, especially this afternoon through this evening. Have included a general mention of VCSH for now due to the uncertainty in timing for sub-VFR conditions, which will be left to TEMPOs in amendments as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 89 78 89 79 / 70 60 50 40 Marathon 87 78 88 79 / 70 60 50 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.

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