textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Newly formed Tropical Storm Isaias remains across the southwestern Gulf early this morning. This system poses no threat to the Florida Keys.

- An uptick in moisture across the Keys for the next several days will lead to increased rain and thunder chances.

- Light to gentle breezes will continue for the next few days. Freshening southeasterly breezes are expected for the end of the week and through the holiday weekend.

FORECAST

The pattern for the next several days will be driven by 3 key features. The first one being Tropical Storm Isaias across the southwestern Gulf which is expected to move towards the North Gulf Coast. This system is not expected to impact the Keys. In addition, a frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida early this morning. This boundary will continue to only slowly sag southward not making much progress. Third, high pressure across the western North Atlantic extends westward just enough early this morning keeping a faint hold across the Florida Keys. The high will basically fluctuate in strength throughout the week as the aforementioned features interact with each other. The front sagging southward towards the Keys will lead to increasing rain chances for the next few forecast periods before the high builds back west over the weekend and into early next week leading to decreasing rain chances. However, even though, the rain chances will decrease, we will see breezes freshen across the Keys as the gradient slowly strengthens between the high and Tropical Storm Isaias, especially as we head into the holiday weekend. Breezes are expected to remain light to gentle today through Thursday night mainly out of the south to southwest before shifting to the east to southeast for Friday through the weekend. Also, dew points will also be on the rise for Friday through the holiday weekend as the east to southeast flow pumps in some very juicy tropical moisture. There is the potential for a few days of 80 degree dew points over the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 454 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, Tropical Storm Isaias remains across the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf early this morning. Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to move towards the North Gulf Coast over the next few days, strengthening as it does so. A cold front also remains draped across central Florida which will slowly press southward infringing on the surface ridge to its south. In doing so, these systems will act in tandem with one another and create a tightening pressure gradient across the Keys resulting in freshening mainly southeast breezes as we head into the weekend. In addition, moisture will also be on the rise leading to higher rain and thunder chances. Any showers and storms will be capable of causing hazardous marine conditions through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 454 AM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the period. There will be the possibility for a few isolated to scattered showers or even a thunderstorm during the day that may affect either or both terminals. However, due to the timing and placement uncertainty, VCSH was left out of the TAF. The better chance looks to be Wednesday night. Also, there is the possibility for potential periods of MVFR CIGs. The best chance time appears to be late morning into the afternoon hours.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1962, the daily record rainfall of 1.74" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871. Also, on this day in 1995, the daily record rainfall of 1.60" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 88 79 88 80 / 40 60 30 20 Marathon 88 79 89 80 / 40 60 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.