textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Warmer than usual temperatures and light to gentle breezes through the weekend. Expect rising dew points through Sunday.

-A potent cold frontal boundary is forecast to push through the Florida Keys on Monday. Winds will rapidly shift northerly and sustained strong to near gale breezes are possible. -The cold air mass behind the front will keep temperatures below normal for most of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this evening at both EYW and MTH. Conditions are expected to be similar to this morning, and LAV/NBH guidance supports an increasing likelihood of low stratus (LIFR ceilings, based at 004) impacting MTH early Saturday morning. Model guidance continues to vary for EYW so for the time being only MTH includes the category change, though as confidence increases it could be included in later issuances. Near surface winds will continue to be northeast at 5 to 10 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 416 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 While highs in the Keys will be in the 80s through the weekend, winter storm warnings are in effect for large swaths of the central to eastern United States. A significant winter storm will sweep across the continent starting today. The Florida Peninsula is too far south to experience the worst weather from this broad low pressure system; however, something needs to be fueling the winter storm. Behind the snowstorm will be a very cold arctic air mass pushing into the eastern half of the United States. The associated cold front with this air mass is expected to move across the Florida Keys on Monday to Monday night. Numerical guidance suggests the front will not bring a significant amount of precipitation; the air mass is too dry. Breezes will rapidly freshen after frontal passage. Uncertainties with this front will revolve around wind speeds. Models underestimated the winds for the past couple of cold fronts, and it would not be a surprise if the breezes were stronger than currently forecast. Currently expecting strong breezes across the Keys nearshore waters, but potential exists for near gale force winds on Monday night into Tuesday. Check back later for an updated forecast, and take precautions for strong breezes.

The forecast questions for next week post-front are focused on temperature. The Climate Prediction Center temperature outlook suggests the arctic air mass will stall over the eastern half of the country next week. Over the Keys, statistical models suggest multiple days of highs in the mid to upper 60s. We could see dew points dropping into the upper 40s in some of the more extreme model runs. The magnitude of the cooler temperatures is not certain, exactly how cool and dry the Keys get will depend on how the models handle the winter storm and its aftermath. Either way, brace for a stretch of cooler than normal days next week.

MARINE

Issued at 1111 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, northeast to easterly light to gentle breezes will persist through tonight. Weak troughing off the eastern coast of Florida continues to fuel light to moderate showers across the Straits. Shower coverage will diminish over the weekend ahead of a potent cold front on Monday. Winds behind the front will rapidly freshen to strong breezes. Near gale force winds are possible Monday Night to Tuesday, but exactly how strong breezes get is uncertain. The period of peak breezes will not last too long; by Tuesday evening, expect breezes to slacken to fresh to strong.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.