textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor to moderate saltwater flooding of low elevation streets will continue through Friday morning. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters of the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in all other waters.

- A wet pattern will continue through Friday. Rain and thunder chances will decrease over the weekend through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 Bouts of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to progress through the terminals at times through at least 00z this evening. Bouts of IFR CIGs and VISs can be expected with any stronger storm, along with strong gusts out of the southeast. Coverage is expected to wane thereafter, although there is a lack of confidence in storm regeneration late in the TAF period after 06z. Outside of any storms, southeasterly surface winds will still occasionally gust to near 20 knots at the terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 The radar has remained quite active across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters this morning. While there have been very few thunderstorms due to the saturated atmospheric profile, showers moving north-northwest around 25 knots have been efficient wind producers with several 30-40 knot gusts measured by surrounding surface and marine observation sites along the Island Chain. The initial surge of activity has lifted northward beyond our waters, but additional development has begun in the Straits of Florida. This seemingly will be the theme over the next couple of days as enhanced low-level winds combines with deep moisture across the region to support periods of scattered to widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms. Will maintain Likely PoPs across much of the area today, and see no need to make changes to that portion of the forecast. The enhanced pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh breezes across our waters. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Straits of Florida through tonight and has been expanded to include the southeastern Gulf waters. Small craft should exercise caution in the remaining marine zones, generally excluding the Florida Bay. Additionally, the Coastal Flood products will remain in effect for at least another tidal cycle. Although tidal anomalies are beginning to slowly decrease, predicted peaks remain at similar levels to the past few high tides, so minor to moderate saltwater flooding of low-elevation streets/lots along the Keys is expected to continue during high tide at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Straits of Florida and southeastern Gulf. In the remaining marine zones, small craft should exercise caution through at least tonight. Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move towards the north- northwest around 15 to 20 knots, occasionally producing locally hazardous winds and seas.

From synopsis, high pressure offshore of the Eastern Seaboard will merge with an existing region of high pressure across the subtropical Atlantic, and subsequently build through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh breezes are expected to continue across the Florida Keys waters through tonight. Widespread Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will be necessary through at least this evening while a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. In addition, a very wet pattern will remain across the Keys over the next couple days, resulting in periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for GMZ033-034- 052>055-072>075.