textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms develop tonight, with increasing shower and thunder chances through the week.

- Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees.

- Breezes gradually freshening from light to gentle to gentle to moderate near mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1016 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 Monday proved to be much quieter than yesterday. Thunderstorms did not form near the island chain. KBYX actually detected a nearly precipitation free environment over the Florida Keys waters for most of the evening. Satellite observations from GOES East have not identified high altitude cirrus cloud cover over the Keys, and only sparse low altitude cumulus clouds were highlighted by nighttime microphysics imagery. CIMSS MIMIC Layer PWAT imagery estimated values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches across the Keys. Dew points continue to linger in the mid to upper 70s. These observations were supported by 00Z KKEY sounding, which sampled a PWAT slightly above the 10th percentile for the day. Therefore, it is not a surprise that a significant amount of inhibition was present. Based on satellite and the sounding, it is very unlikely showers will be able to form across the Keys during the overnight hours. Tonight, expect a dry and nearly cloud free sky across the Florida Keys. Decided to lower PoPs to 10% given the inhibition across the Keys.

Breezes across the reef have been light to gentle east to southeasterlies during the entire evening. Radiational cooling is likely within the interior of the larger islands. Tomorrow morning is also likely to be dry, but the weather pattern is primed to change. Southeasterlies hint that a col region near the Keys will move north, and a plume of moisture is starting to lift towards the Keys from Andros.

MARINE

Issued at 1016 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters.

From synopsis, a col region, which lingered over the Keys for the past couple of days, will begin to move north. East to southeast breezes will prevail through Thursday. Expect generally gentle breezes, which will peak to moderate at times during the overnight hours, as North Atlantic ridging builds westward. Shower chances will gradually increase as the week progresses.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH. Sky coverage will be very sparse with minimal, if any, shower coverage before sunrise. Near surface winds will remain east to southeast between 5 and 10 knots. Shower coverage will begin to increase in the last 6 hours of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 90 83 90 / 10 20 50 50 Marathon 83 91 83 91 / 20 30 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.