textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds through the weekend.

- Confidence is increasing for a potentially wet and thundery period through the middle to latter part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Robust surface through lower level ridging remains in control of Keys synoptic setup this evening. The Atlantic surface ridge has lifted slightly northward and now stretches across Florida and the Southeastern United States. This, along with the usual evening surge under this regime, has brought in moderate to fresh east southeasterlies across the Keys and surrounding waters. The steady slightly veered flow, compared to last night, should result in overnight lows struggling to fall to 80. Dew points will remain in the mid 70s. This evenings sounding indicated precipitable water slightly above the 75% for this time of year with considerable CAPE. However, there was a bit of low level inhibition and has helped to limit shower and thunderstorm activity near the Keys. Convective activity this evening has been concentrated along old sea breeze boundaries on our deep gulf waters, and maritime boundaries over the outer Florida Straits. As nocturnal low level confluence increases overnight and the inhibition weakens slightly, expect a gradual increase in activity near the island chain. Will maintain low chance for showers with a few thunderstorms possible.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Atlantic ridging stretching across Florida and the southeast will continue to drive evening surges across Keys waters. Expect moderate to fresh east southeasterly breezes, relaxing slightly late in the night. A Caution remains in effect for all Keys waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. Surface winds will be moderate to fresh out of the east to southeast through the night.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.