textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
-Showers and thunderstorms possible tonight ahead of a weak frontal passage.
-Light to gentle breezes to freshen to light to moderate.
-The cold front is expected to stall over the Florida Straits by mid week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 While VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period, both CIGs and visibility will be briefly lowered at times, primarily towards MVFR and IFR categories due to expected scattered showers. While this activity is expected to to continue after 00z tonight, coverage will become more limited.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 416 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Uncertainty creeps back into the forecast rather quickly. Weather models indicate the front will stall once again across the Florida Straits tomorrow morning. The high pressure system pushing the front south will not be able to build very much, because a parade of clipper low pressure systems are sharpening a longwave trough established over the eastern CONUS. A lot of forecast questions exist because of this pattern. Exactly how much the high builds before it is forced east across the Deep South will determine breeze strength over the Gulf. Showers may be heavily convective over the Straits, which may allow the frontal moisture gradient to migrate closer to the Keys.
Statistical models suggest another pattern change to Keys weather during the second half of the week. An arctic air mass is expected to surge into the upper CONUS late this week and allow a high pressure system to build over the Great Plains. This would help push another cold front across the Keys, but that could be ancillary to the threat of wind. In the situation the high extends deep towards the ArkLaTex region, there is a possibility of breezy to windy conditions next week. Check back later, because quite a bit can change in this kind of weather pattern!
MARINE
Issued at 416 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025 Gentle to moderate breezes will freshen to moderate and veer northeasterly tonight as a fractured front moves across the Florida Keys. Heaviest showers and thunderstorms are expected for the northern waters today and tonight, but the front may stall across the Straits of Florida. Expect greater shower coverage in the southern waters. Breezes will fluctuate between gentle and moderate during the week.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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