textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect, and particularly low lying areas will see some saltwater ponding around the times of high tide over the next day or so.

- An uptick in moisture across the area, especially north of the island chain, will lead to periods of unsettled weather over the next few days.

- Tropical Storm Isaias remains over the southwestern Gulf, but does not pose a threat to the Florida Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1027 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

It has been a mixed bag of weather this evening. Most of the activity has resided along the sharp moisture gradient that is situated to our northwest. In the last hour or so, moisture and convection from Cuba is entering our waters from the south and southwest. This influx of moisture will continue to move towards and over the CWA during the overnight and into Thursday morning. Therefore, the 40 percent PoPs currently advertise look to be in good working order at this time. Key West may hedge a little higher on the PoPs given the trajectory of the moisture plume. Otherwise, southwest to west winds have gone light with speeds generally 5 to 10 knots. Winds will continue to slacken over the next few hours, but then should surge briefly towards dawn through mid-morning, before falling again in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1027 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Light to gentle southwest to west breezes prevail this hour but expecting breezes to freshen late overnight, closer to dawn on Thursday. Brief periods of gentle to possibly moderate breezes during the early morning will quickly slacken through the afternoon. Surge in moisture from the southwest to west will move in overnight and could lead to showers and thunderstorms re- developing close to dawn on Thursday. Then expect dry air to advect off Cuba during the afternoon and push most of the activity into the Southeast Gulf waters. Mariners should be prepared for higher winds and seas in and around thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will be expected through the majority of the overnight. Watching a moisture plume move in from the southwest that could bring some scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms in the morning around 12Z/08th. Confidence is not terribly at high at the moment and will leave mentions of VCSH for now.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 The effects of the stalled cold front across Florida are showing up on our KBYX radar this afternoon. Isolated pockets of showers have been waxing and waning over our local waters in a fairly unorganized fashion over the past couple of hours. The 18Z KKEY sounding showed an unfavorable environment for significant showers and thunderstorms with just over 200 J/kg of ML CAPE and a backing wind profile in the lower to mid levels. Satellite derived layer PWAT shows a very sharp gradient cutting across our forecast area, so some showers and thunderstorms will be able to thrive in the moist side of this gradient, mainly west and north of the island chain. Essentially, our forecast area is sitting on the periphery of all of the activity. This makes for a complicated forecast as some of our marine zones may see plenty of activity tonight while our island communities don't. Activity will be limited to boundary interactions as all of the larger scale lift will be to our north.

Sometime throughout tomorrow and tomorrow evening, drier air will have the opportunity to advect in throughout the mid layers, and will allow for rainfall chances to fall below normal again.

CIMSS vorticity analysis continues to highlight a pertubation currently in the area of Puerto Rico. Mean layer flow is southeasterly, so this wave should traverse our forecast area sometime Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings highlight better veering in the lower wind pattern coupled with an increase in moisture, so shower and thunderstorms chances will be greatest in this timeframe. Activity will linger over the weekend, and ridging will be able to build back in as the aforementioned cold front recedes to the north and northeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.