textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will generally be favorable for waterspout formation along portions of the Island Chain during the day on Thursday.

- High moisture content across the region will support daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Similar to previous evenings, convection across the Florida Keys nearshore and coastal waters has almost entirely dissipated as of this writing. However, there are multiple remnant outflow boundaries evident on KBYX radar meandering across the nearshore waters which will likely serve as trigger mechanisms for redevelopment tomorrow. In addition, moisture content is forecast to remain high amidst deep- layer south to southeasterly flow. Surface analysis reveals, subtle inverted troughing centered over the area extending northeast through the Florida mainland and into the western Atlantic. This is associated with a low to mid-level shortwave trough near the Bahamas which is embedded within the southern periphery of broad, deep-layer ridging over the Southeastern CONUS and western Atlantic. This cyclonic feature has recently become better resolved in global modeling runs and CIMSS analysis, progged to retrograde westward across Florida and into the eastern Gulf tomorrow. However, this would place the zone of greatest synoptic forcing just to our north, especially over the Florida mainland and into the eastern Gulf tomorrow. As such, Likely PoPs will remain just north and outside of our waters, but feel confident maintaining Chance PoPs in the forecast through tomorrow, primarily for areas along and north of the Island Chain. Southerly low to mid-level flow across Cuba may promote a shadowing effect tomorrow afternoon which would suppressive rain chances, so will maintain only a Slight Chance for showers and storms in the Florida Straits. Expect generally light, southerly breezes in the morning, becoming variable or easterly at times during the afternoon with conditions once again becoming favorable for cloud line formation and potential waterspout development, especially if boundary interactions were to occur.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, the western periphery of a weak North Atlantic high will remain in loose control of the Keys coastal waters for the next several days. Light to gentle east to southeast breezes overnight through morning will become light and variable at times during the afternoon and evenings. In addition, the overall flow will keep low-level moisture in place across the region, with seasonally normal rain and thunder chances.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at both terminals through this TAF cycle. High moisture content over the area will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms during the day tomorrow, but there's low confidence on when and where activity will develop, so there is no TS mention in this TAF issuance as no aviation impacts are expected for at least the next 6 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 92 83 92 / 20 30 40 30 Marathon 83 90 83 90 / 30 30 40 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.