textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong high pressure over the central North Atlantic will remain stationary through the rest of the week into the weekend, supporting an extended period of relatively unremarkable weather. - Moderate to fresh breezes will wax and wane the rest of the week, generally peaking during the overnight hours and lulling in the afternoons.

- Rain, with possible thunder, chances expected to increase late into the week into at least the first part of the weekend. - Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

A much different evening thus far for the Florida Keys. We have had isolated showers and thunderstorms come off both Andros Island and Cuba and move towards our area. The showers from Andros managed to make the trek westward across portions of the Upper Keys. The convection off of Cuba, not so much. Broad ridge out across the Atlantic remains firmly in place, which is maintaining moderate to fresh easterlies across the area. This prolonged easterly flow also means muggy conditions as current temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s.

Going through the overnight, expect moisture to pivot along the periphery of the ridge and move northwest across the region. The moisture plume looks to be much less than yesterday and may be more confined to the western half of our waters. There are hints of it now with a land breeze boundary coming off Cuba and trying to fire off new showers. It remains to be seen the exact extent of how widespread scattered showers may be and will keep the low end chance PoPs in the forecast for the time being. Given that we remain under an enhanced easterly flow, any little pertubation coupled with decent moisture in the boundary layer will be enough to spark showers.

MARINE

Issued at 1036 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Straits of Florida. The remaining waters except the SE Gulf waters have Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Atlantic ridge remains firmly in place and will maintain moderate to fresh breezes through the overnight. Breezes will briefly lull during the peak heating of the day then peak again during the overnight. Any showers that develop in this flow will be moving at 15 to 20 knots and will be capable of locally higher winds and seas as they pass through.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail under an easterly flow. Expect frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots through the forecast period. A low threat for showers is possible for the overnight, but confidence on exact placement and timing is too low.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until for GMZ052>055-072>075.