textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Easterly breezes will continue to gradually slacken over the course of tonight and tomorrow.
- Although passing showers are possible, significant rainfall is not likely through Monday.
- There is increasing confidence for above normal shower and possible thunderstorm chances for Tuesday through Thursday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Surface analysis places a frontal boundary extending from the northern Gulf coast northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic states. The Florida Keys remain under the loose influence of a weakening high pressure system now centered east of Bermuda. KBYX radar is detecting a few isolated showers in the eastern Straits of Florida, with the Florida Keys rain-free, and generally partly cloudy skies detected from nighttime GOES-19 products. Given the collapsing flow, a modestly backed low-level wind profile, and meager low-level moisture, elected to lower measurable rain chances to slight levels for tonight. This may be the last rather routine short-term forecast for the next several days, as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls just north of the Keys early this week, providing an opportunity for several bouts of rainy and thundery conditions.
MARINE
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 From synopsis, Breezes will continue to slacken while an Atlantic high weakens and moves farther east. There is high confidence that light to gentle breezes will persist through Tuesday. A high pressure system descending into the Northern Plains on Tuesday night will push a frontal boundary south towards the Florida Keys. Considerable uncertainty surrounds where the front will stall, and when breezes will freshen later this week. In contrast to the wind field, there is high confidence for a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms mid week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 While a passing shower cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the terminals, especially MTH overnight, VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Monday evening. Near-surface winds out of the northeast to east will remain at around 10 to 12 knots, occasionally gusting to near 18 knots early in the TAF period.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 83 73 83 72 / 20 20 20 30 Marathon 82 74 81 73 / 30 20 30 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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