textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Upper Keys as ponding of salt water over low lying roads will continue, especially around times of high tide.

- Drier and cooler weather expected to continue today with highs similar or a couple degrees warmer than Saturday.

- Breezy conditions are expected to return by Sunday night as a strong high pressure settles along the Eastern Seaboard and builds south across our area. Expect wind conditions to develop as early as Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

It's been another uneventful overnight across the Florida Keys. The air mass that came in behind yesterday's front over-performed in some aspects. While we expected drier air to rush in, the magnitude was a lot drier than anticipated. Relative humidity values fell in the afternoon yesterday, recovered slightly, then fell even further during the first half of the overnight. Some island communities got to as low as 45% relative humidity. Since then, winds have gradually begun turning more towards the east and this is ushering in better low level moisture.

With that being said, we will still be relatively drier thanks to the front. On top of that, subsidence has settled in and will likely keep rain chances below 10 percent for the island chain. Across the Straits of Florida, chances will be marginally better thanks to the warm currents of Gulf Stream. Otherwise, the mid and high deck that has been with us for what seems like days now, will also slide east today and we should see a fair amount of sunshine.

Looking slightly ahead, a surface high currently in the Mississippi River Valley is going to be slowly moving eastward today. It's motion is slower than what models had previously depicted and looks to now settle along the Eastern Seaboard about 12 hours later. This will translate into a slower climb in winds locally for our area. However, do not be fooled, once the high settles along the Eastern Seaboard it will build southward and tighten the pressure gradient across the region. As such, we will see breezy conditions Sunday night into Monday, becoming windy!

MARINE

Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

A weak nocturnal surge remains ongoing this morning with the strongest breezes across mainly the Florida Bay and waters off the Upper Keys. Here we have been observing moderate to briefly fresh breezes. We have a couple more hours to go before the surge dissipates but we have likely reached the peak or will be in the next hour. As high pressure moves out of the Mississippi River Valley later today, the pressure gradient across the Keys will initially weaken, allowing for breezes to further slacken later today. It will then slowly move eastward and settle along the Eastern Seaboard starting Monday. This is a slower motion than what was forecast yesterday. As a result fresh to strong breezes may take until late Monday to develop across the region. Still anticipating a prolonged period of fresh to strong breezes for much of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions expected today with slackening northeast winds (less than 10 knots) this morning. This will be brief and expecting winds to gradually increase and become more easterly this evening. There will be an increase in low level moisture but confidence on shower coverage reaching the island terminals is too low at this point and will leave for future amendments.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 80 73 82 74 / 10 10 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.