textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will be the primary weather concern through the rest of the week, as indices will approach the mid to upper 100s during the afternoons.

- A Saharan Air Layer will linger across the Keys this week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best.

FORECAST

The pattern overall for the next several days to week or more will continue the theme of mean layer ridging across the area. The only caveat or fly in the ointment to this will be an upper level Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) which will continue to slowly propagate northwestward. The TUTT will take its sweet time in doing so keeping us under the influence of it until at least Friday afternoon/evening before finally lifting to the north. Therefore, slight chances remain in the forecast for this time period. Once the trough lifts northward, ridging through all layers of the atmosphere will take hold. However, moisture surges are expected to continue which will keep the slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the next week. Other than that, the warm temperatures will continue to be the main theme. Expect daytime highs near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This will keep heat index values well over 100 degrees with some readings between 105 to 108 degrees. Make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks when working outdoors. Breezes will mostly remain light to gentle out of the northeast to east today and tonight before shifting to the east to southeast. There may be a period of light and variable breezes sometime Friday before shifting to the southeast to south over the weekend into the next week.

MARINE

Issued at 435 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an elongated Atlantic ridge stretching west across the Florida Peninsula will support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes today. Breezes slacken and become mainly light to gentle for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. However, breezes will still tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, before modestly lulling in the late morning and afternoon periods. A large area of Saharan dust will remain in place across the Florida Keys marine zones for the next several days, acting to limit rain and thunder chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain northeast to east through the period.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2024, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. In Marathon, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded back in 2023. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 83 90 82 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 90 82 90 82 / 10 10 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.