textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect, and particularly low lying areas will see some saltwater ponding around the times of high tide.

- Major Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf does not pose a direct threat to the Florida Keys, but a residual westerly swell will continue to affect the western half of our waters.

- Increasing moisture across the Keys tonight through Saturday night will lead to higher rain chances. The peak in activity is expected overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 850 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hurricane Isaias is moving inland over the Florida Gulf Coast this evening. Isaias will continue to drive northward and further away from the Keys through the overnight. As Isaias pulls away, the local pressure gradient will relax between it and an Atlantic surface ridge stretching southwestward across Cuba. As a result, breezes are expected to trend slightly downwards overnight. Expect breezes to remain generally light to gentle out of the southeast. A broad zone of moist confluence flow will remain across our area through the night. Guidance has been consistent in deep layered moisture increasing slightly. This along with modest CAPE, a dissipating Cuban shadow and late day Cuban sea breeze activity justifies holding likely PoPs for the overnight along the Keys. Latest radar imagery does indicate a large area of scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms pushing northward through the Florida Straits. Expect overnight lows to remain in the lower 80s with dew points holding in a muggy upper 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 850 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hurricane Isaias, in the process of making landfall along the Florida Gulf Coast, will continue to push northward and weaken overnight. This will allow the Keys pressure gradient to relax between the lifting out storm and a broad ridge aligned across Cuba. The marine cautions on our western waters has been taken down, however, winds, seas, and swells will remain higher on these western waters. Only minor adjustments made in the evening marine update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 850 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. With that said, there will be a good chance for at a round or two of showers and possibly thunderstorms at the terminals overnight. Aside from convection, surface winds will be gentle out of the southeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.