textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence is increasing for an extended period of wet and windy conditions across the Florida Keys this weekend, and possibly into early next week.

- A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Uncertainty remains very high regarding rain chances for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A surface through lower level ridge stretches across the southeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic. This is driving gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the region this morning. Despite ridging being in control, moisture is fairly high with this mornings sounding indicating 2.12 inches of precipitable water. In addition, CAPE was ample with almost no inhibition. This has been supportive of isolated showers and almost thunderstorms this morning under mostly sunny skies.

Ridging will remain in control of our weather through the afternoon. This will keep gentle easterly breezes. Forecast soundings indicate deep layered moisture will remain near two inches, with sufficient CAPE, and a lack of inhibition. As a result, expect at least a slight to low chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. May update to lower PoPs.

MARINE

Issued at 1000 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A surface high stretching across the southeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes on Keys waters this afternoon. Only minor adjustments made in the morning marine update.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals this afternoon. There will be a slight chance for brief sub VFR conditions due to isolated passing showers. Surface winds will be gentle out of the east.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.