textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A wet pattern will remain in place with above normal rain chances. Best thunder chances will stay out across the Straits of Florida over the next few days. - Breezy to windy conditions at time is expected through at least Thursday with slackening breezes starting Friday.

- We should see improving drought conditions due to beneficial rains this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The atmosphere remains juiced this morning, which is not a bad thing, considering we have been dealing with moderate drought conditions. However, the last couple of days have brought beneficial rains to the island chain. Some communities got more than others but generally 2-4 inches of rain has fallen and is sure to make a dent in our drought. This morning we remain under the effects of the recent cold front. Winds are roaring out of the north to northeast with speeds of 20 to 25 knots at nearly all of our marine platforms. Over the island chain speeds are closer to 15 to 20 mph range with frequent gusts to 25 mph at times. In addition, we are cooler this morning with temperatures in the mid 60s. After a long period of above normal temperatures, this morning temperatures are nearly 5 degrees below the seasonal average for minimum temps.

This influx of cooler air is very shallow, barely 3000-5000 feet deep. Winds above this layer quickly clock around from the southwest. This is allow for energy to ripple along the residual frontal boundary while also pooling moisture across the region. This will lead to scattered light showers at times for the Keys and possibly a few thunderstorms out across the Straits of Florida where instability will be much higher. Regardless if we pick up any additional measurable precipitation today, the moisture is locked in across our CWA. Therefore, we will see quite a bit of clouds today with very little sun peaking through at times. This will keep us tempered on the slightly cooler side with daytime highs similar to yesterday, in the mid 70s.

The lingering frontal boundary and moisture will hold across the region through Thursday even as a high pressure settles in across the Southeast U.S. This will allow two things to continue. First, the breezy to windy conditions will persist at times due to the strength of the incoming high. Second, with no real upper level push to knock the moisture out of our area, rain chances will remain above normal through about Thursday. Thereafter, the high will settle into the Southeast U.S. and Southwestern Atlantic while weakening, allowing breezes to relax. Eventually the presence of the high will scour out a decent chunk of the moisture and more sunshine can be expected for the upcoming weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in place due to fresh to strong northerly breezes. The waters immediately downwind of the mainland may see a brief lull to moderate to fresh this afternoon, however, generally fresh breezes are expected to prevail today into tonight. As a strong high pressure continues to build in across the area it will maintain fresh to occasionally strong breezes through at least Thursday. By Friday we will see a trend towards appreciable slackening breezes as the high settles closer to the Florida Peninsula while weakening. Rain chances will remain elevated through Thursday with thunder chances continuing across the Straits of Florida.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 410 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

A combination of a moisture rich airmass and northerly winds will maintain MVFR CIGs across the entire island chain today, affecting both EYW and MTH. Confidence is too low to include a brief period of IFR CIGs later this morning into the early afternoon. However, have added a a low SCT deck around 700 to 800 ft AGL. Otherwise, north to northeast winds will prevail with a crosswind magnitude holding between 20 to 25 knots at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 75 66 77 67 / 20 30 10 10 Marathon 75 67 76 67 / 30 40 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.