textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds have clocked around from the east to southeasterly direction and will prevail overnight.

- A threat for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday will be mainly in the morning and early afternoon.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the holiday weekend. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with seasonably warm and muggy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1102 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A cloud line during the afternoon waxed and waned and was able to produce a fairly healthy line of showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Keys. A general half to three-quarters of an inch of rain fell from Big Torch Key down to Key West. Radar estimates indicate that locally even higher amounts of 1 to 1.5 fell across Key West. After that line came through, the atmosphere settled down until just around sunset. Residual boundaries plus outflows from convection across the far southern peninsula ignited a new round of convection that remains ongoing this hour. Sadly this new round has mostly stayed offshore and merely teased the Keys. Meanwhile, light to gentle east to southeast winds have returned outside of any convection and will continue through the overnight.

During the overnight as the east to southeast flow continues, a pocket of relatively better moisture will pivot through late and closer to dawn. CAMs are suggesting we could see additional showers and thunderstorms break out after 3 to 5 am and linger through mid morning on Saturday. Expecting most if not all of the activity to diminish before the evening firework begins.

MARINE

Issued at 1102 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes expected through the overnight. Breezes will lull once again during the morning and early afternoon and could briefly become light and variable. This will be especially true across the waters north and northwest of the island chain as daytime heating across the mainland leads to a weaker pressure field across these waters. Otherwise, we will continue to see overnight peaks and daytime lulls in the east to southeast flow over the holiday weekend. Thereafter, as a high pressure across the Atlantic gradually builds back westward across Florida and the Florida Keys, expect breezes to undergo a gradual freshening trend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Ongoing convection should stay just north of the island terminals over the next couple of hours. As the flow becomes increasing east to southeast, additional showers and thunderstorms may on occasion pass near or over the island terminals, especially EYW. Any passing shower or thunderstorm will bring a threat for MVFR or brief IFR conditions.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.