textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light and variable breezes will eventually take on a uniform northerly to northeasterly direction during the overnight hours.

- A drastic pattern change is shaping up for the Keys during the end of the week, and into the start of next week. As a result, expect increasing rain and thunder chances along with some very beneficial rain, especially over the weekend.

- Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. Confidence is increasing for much needed rainfall across the area over the weekend through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1007 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 Our KBYX radar has been busy tracking a weak frontal boundary as it pushed into our southeastern Gulf waters this evening. The initial line of showers associated with this front looked quite spicy around sunset, but the general environment was not enough to keep it together. The 00Z KKEY sounding sampled some decent CAPE in the profile, but drier air aloft ultimately won. The bulk of the activity has tapered off, but radar trends over the past hour have pointed to spotty showers trying to either hang on or reignite. It is difficult to say which islands may see a few raindrops, and which ones won't, so we'll continue to advertise the broad brushed chance of rain (30%) for the Keys.

Automated observations on the mainland, directly behind the front, showed air temperatures drop by approximately 5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit as the showers pushed through. However, some of this could be attributed to the diurnal pattern. Closer to home, our temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 70s, so the remnants of the front likely will only be able to knock temperatures down a few more degrees.

No changes or updates are needed to the forecast package at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1007 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a weak frontal boundary will continue to deteriorate as it sags through the Keys local waters. Significant marine hazards are not likely, but occasional instances of moderate downpours and erratic gusts near 20 knots will be possible.. Otherwise, generally light breezes will veer from north to northeast, and will take on an east to southeast direction by Friday afternoon as high pressure over the Atlantic resumes control.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1007 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the 00Z TAF period at both island terminals. A residual outflow is expected to pass across the islands around 03Z to 05Z, but the shower activity associated with it may not make it to either airfield. For now, opting to keep the TAF package dry. Light and variable winds at the start of the period will resume a northeast to easterly component by around 15Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 75 82 74 81 / 30 20 50 50 Marathon 74 83 74 83 / 30 20 40 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.