textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes will prevail, peaking overnight and lulling during the day. - Near to below normal shower and thunder chances will prevail through Sunday and well into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Pleasant conditions have unfolded across the Florida Keys this evening. Temperatures will gradually drop into the lower 80s along the island chain under mostly clear skies. While thunderstorms continue to our north over the Florida mainland, we've had little to no action across the forecast area tonight owing to a sharp decrease in tropospheric moisture. PWATs on this evening's 00Z KKEY RAOB measured near to slightly below the 10th percentile at 1.46". That's quite the drop from the 2" PWAT measured on this morning's 12Z sounding. Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a broad zone of dry air proliferating across the Bahamas, gradually headed our way due to deep, east-southeasterly flow along the southern flank of a deep- layer Atlantic ridge expanding westward across Florida and into the Gulf. I did decrease PoPs slightly for the remainder of the night, but will maintain a Chance for showers and thunderstorms across the southeastern Gulf as latest short term models suggest a subtle boost in low-level moisture in associated with an approaching inverted trough may lend enough upper-level support to initiate isolated to scattered thunderstorms west of the Lower Keys in the pre-dawn hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. An Atlantic ridge centered near Bermuda will continue to expand westward across Florida and into the northern Gulf over the following days. This will maintain persistent gentle to moderate breezes predominately from the east, peaking at night with a lull during the day. A tightening pressure gradient may support occasional fresh breezes early in the week, especially in the Straits of Florida during the overnight hours, and periodic cautions may be needed. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be near normal for the remainder of the weekend, but will trend below normal through at least the first half of the work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through this TAF period as high pressure centered over the Western Atlantic combined with dry air aloft acts to suppress convection. A slight boost in moisture may be enough to support scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Easterly to east-southeasterly sfc winds will flow around the periphery of the surface ridge at ~8-10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 92 84 92 / 20 30 20 20 Marathon 84 90 84 90 / 20 40 40 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.