textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Upper Keys around the times of high tide, but high tides peaks will continue to trend downward.

- Rain chances will remain near to below normal through mid week, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, and will open the door for a period of breezy to windy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A weak and broad area of high pressure is gradually passing across the area as it shifts from the southeastern Gulf to the Bahamas and western Atlantic. The center of this high is difficult to make out on satellite-derived products, but the anticyclonic flow of the cloud field suggests that the center of this high may be situated somewhere near, or over, South Florida. Our radar has remained dry this afternoon, likely due to a combination of the stable atmosphere and the decrease in moisture in the vertical column. Satellite-derived layered PWAT suggests that the pocket of air aloft has around a third of an inch less of water in the vertical column, or around 1.25", compared to this morning.

This high pressure will continue to make its way toward the Bahamas and the western Atlantic, and will allow for a brief period of even lighter surface winds. Our relatively benign weather conditions will continue through Wednesday night/Thursday morning as the high shifts farther away. Over the course of Thursday and Friday, a pattern change will be underway for the Sunshine State. A cold front will progress down the peninsula, and is expected to knock on our backdoor sometime Thursday night and Friday. The tightening pressure gradient will result in a window of breezy conditions with a cooler northwesterly wind. Rain chances will also peak, around 30%, but the precise sensible weather will depend on just how far southerly the front can go.

Guidance continues to favor the front lifting out of the area over the weekend, and a brief period of drier, cooler conditions will be left in its place. However, some ensemble members are highlighting the opportunity for an area of high pressure to take its place, and to reinforce the breezy to windy conditions from next Monday onward. Wind directions will shift northeasterly, but there is some question as to what kind of influence this will have on "backing up" the Gulf stream. Coastal Flood products may be needed once again early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. High pressure across the area will support gentle to modestly moderate east to southeast breezes through Wenesday. In general, rain chances will remain slight at best, but a stray shower or two may result in light showers. Thursday night and Friday, a cold front will push across the Gulf and Florida peninsula, and will support a brief period of fresh to occasionally strong northwesterly breezes. The magnitude of these winds will depend on how far south the front can reach, so Small Craft Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisories may be needed briefly as we approach the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 High pressure across the area will support VFR conditions through the TAF period. Occasional MVFR CIGs may be reported, particularly overnight, but these will only be due lingering fair weather clouds. Surface winds will generally be out of the east to east southeast, initially near 10 knots but decreasing to 5 to 10 knots overnight. Rain chances are very low, under 10 percent, so we are opting to maintain a dry TAF package.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 77 84 76 83 / 10 0 10 20 Marathon 78 84 77 83 / 10 0 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.