textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a moderate risk of heat illness, with periods of major risk conditions possible. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds.

- Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will continue for the next several days, peaking in the evenings and overnight hours, and lulling during the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 948 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Surface through lower level ridging is in control of Keys weather. At the surface, an Atlantic ridge reaches westward across the Florida Peninsula and is responsible for moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes. Despite the ridging, precipitable water is above normal at just above 2 inches with an essentially uncapped environment with considerable CAPE. Despite this, and the healthy flow, shower activity near the Keys has been nearly absent. A few showers have recently percolated over the outer eastern Straits. Temperatures are in the lower 80s, which is slightly above normal, and dew points are up in the mid 70s.

Winds may ease back late in the overnight and tip a bit further southeasterly as the surface high retreats slightly into the Atlantic. The continuing healthy flow will hinder nocturnal cooling. As a result, overnight lows will likely be around 80, a few degrees above normal, with dew points holding in the mid 70s. Rain chances will be slight to a low chance as a result of the the usual nocturnal maxima, along with the ongoing fairly moist and unstable atmosphere. In addition, activity is beginning to pick up on upstream waters.

MARINE

Issued at 948 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

A surface ridge reaching across Florida will retreat slightly eastward overnight. Moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes will remain for much of the night, eventually relaxing a bit and shifting slightly further southeasterly. As a result, will maintain a Caution across all marine waters.

MARINE

Issued at 1013 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Near-surface winds are overproducing a bit at this late morning hour, but are expected to remain below headline or advisory levels through the early evening hours. As breeze briefly freshen in the late evening and overnight periods, Small Craft Exercise Caution Headlines may be required for portions of the Florida Keys marine zones.

From synopsis, high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes this afternoon. This regime will continue for the next few days, with breezes peaking to near fresh in the evening and overnight hours, slackening to gentle to moderate in the late morning and afternoon hours. A second high pressure system will reinforce the first, supporting fresh east to southeast breezes late in the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 948 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be moderate to fresh out of the east to east southeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.