textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-A strong cold front will blast through the Keys on Thursday. This will bring a period of windy conditions for the Florida Keys beginning Thursday morning, then continuing into Friday morning. -Elevated rain chances will continue through Thursday morning ahead of the cold front. There is also the potential for a few thunderstorms through Thursday morning. -In the wake of the front, expect considerably cooler and drier conditions for late week through the weekend.

-Another reinforcing front is expected to move through the area sometime on Sunday or Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 917 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

A cold front is barreling eastward through the Gulf this evening. Ahead of this front, and closer to home, winds are light to gentle out of the northwest due to an unrelated trough lifting out across the Bahamas. Conditions are mild with slightly above normal temperatures in the lower 70s and dew points in the mid 60s. While skies are cloudy due to residual stratocumulus, precipitation has been absent from the vicinity of the archipelago due to a sharply backing profile on the back side of the departing surface trough.

The weather will change substantially late overnight and Thursday. The cold front will blast eastward across the Keys through the morning hours, bringing with it strong westerly breezes. Copious low level moisture and a sharp prefrontal trough should result in quite a bit of shower coverage across the area and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Fortunately, sharpening upper level support is expected to lag behind the best lower level forcing. For now will maintain likely pops and slight thunder chances. The initial westerly push will result in temperatures going nowhere through the day. Expect highs broadly in the lower 70s with dew points holding in the mid 60s early. Breezes will remain strong as they clock northwesterly later in the day. This will force temperatures sharply downwards. Expect mid 60s temperatures with dew points near 60 by sundown.

MARINE

Issued at 917 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

The main event for the overnight period will be a strong cold front beginning to blast eastward through Keys waters late tonight into tomorrow. Initially gentle northwesterlies will back westerly and slacken slightly. Expect breezes to quickly surge late tonight as the front sweeps across the area. Expect winds to gradually clock northwesterly and peak in the afternoon, becoming strong with occasional gale force gusts. A Small Craft Advisory has been raised for the deep Gulf zones and will likely be required on all waters by early tomorrow.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 917 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Expect rapidly changing conditions at the island terminals overnight. This is due to a fast approaching cold front. Ahead of the front, gentle northwesterly breezes will relax and shift westerly. Meanwhile, near MVFR ceilings (3000 - 5000 ft) may diminish as recent satellite imagery indicates a large gap between the cloud field near the Keys and the incoming prefrontal trough. Frontal passage is expected early Thursday, bringing with it strong westerly breezes and potentially a prolonged period of sub VFR ceilings. Rain chances will be high and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Thursday for GMZ033-034.