textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure dominant across the area will continue to support an extended period of relatively unremarkable weather. - Generally gentle to moderate easterly breezes will prevail through at least Wednesday night, eventually veering to the southeast by early Thursday. - Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. Increasing moisture is anticipated towards late in the week and over the weekend bringing some beneficial rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1048 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026 A mostly uneventful morning is unfolding for the Florida Keys. KBYX continues to detect shallow short-fuse shower activity throughout the coastal waters, but it has not amounted to much in terms of rainfall. Temperatures along the island chain are near 80F with dew points near 70F. GOES-19 Visibile Satelitte reveals partly cloudy skies. Across the Reef, winds are easterly at 10 to 15 knots. Going into the afternoon hours, conditions are expected to stay similar to this morning; light isolated showers and gentle to moderate easterly breezes. No changes were needed for this update forecast.

FORECAST

High pressure centered near Bermuda will remain the main driver for the Florida Keys sensible weather for the next several forecast periods. The western side of this ridge extends over Florida and into the Gulf. This will continue to promote gentle to moderate mainly easterly breezes through at least Wednesday night. Drier air has moved into the Keys overnight resulting in near nil rain chances through at least early Thursday. Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday with daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s.

Model guidance continues to trend northward with the frontal boundary stalling it somewhere across South Florida. The result is expected to be an increase in moisture across the area as front pulls moisture northward due to the southeast to south flow across the region. Also, instability will increase leading to the risk for thunderstorms over the weekend with this potentially being as early as late week. In addition, ample upper level shortwave troughs will traverse across the Gulf and Florida embedded in the broader longwave trough. This will lead to a potential unsettled period arriving as early as Friday continuing through the weekend into early next week. Some very beneficial rain is potentially on the way in a few to several more days. Dew points will only subtly decrease by a degree or two making any change barely noticeable.

Looking at the end of the extended, there may be signs of yet another front towards Saint Patrick's Day. However, this is too far out to hone in on any details at this time. Also, the later we get into spring the less likely it will be that these fronts will push through. Stay tuned!

MARINE

Issued at 1048 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026 There are no current watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure is centered near Bermuda with the western periphery of this ridge extending west into Florida and the Gulf. As the high retreats further into the Atlantic through mid week, breezes will shift to the east to southeast. As a front approaches from the north and stalls across South Florida, breezes will shift to the southeast to south and eventually become variable sometime Thursday. Since the front isn't expected to reach the area, high pressure regains control and thus returns breezes back to the east to southeast.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Light showers are possible but confidence on exact timing and location leaves mentions out of the TAFs for the time being. Near surface winds will be easterly at near 10 knots.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.