textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Windy northwesterly to northerly breezes riding in following the recent cold front passage will slowly diminish overnight. -Incoming cooler and drier post front conditions have all but eliminated shower potential. -Expect steady moderation through late week and weekend, but conditions will remain cooler and drier than normal.

-Another reinforcing front is expected to move through the area sometime on Sunday or Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Fresh northwesterly breezes continues to drive robust cold air advection across the Keys this evening in wake of the recent front. Temperatures in the Lower Keys are now in the mid 60s with dew points in the mid 50s, while Ocean Reef recently reported 59 degrees with dew points in the mid 40s. Rain potential has ended as this evenings sounding indicated a deep well mixed boundary layer with a hefty frontal inversion based around 5000 ft (~850 mb). Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy due to sheaves of cold air stratocumulus streaming southeastward across the area.

A high cell centered along the Gulf coast will drive eastward overnight as a prefrontal trough rapidly swings northeastward across the north Atlantic. as a result, the steep pressure gradient and strong winds across our area will trend downwards. An expected strong mainland land breeze is expected to delay somewhat the relaxing breezes. As a result, expect breezy/windy conditions to persist through sunup. Cold air advection will continue overnight resulting in low temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 50s in the Lower and Middle Keys, to the upper 40s in portions of the Upper Keys. Dew points should slip to near or slightly below 40, depending on proximity to South Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

Fresh northwest to northerly breezes continue to pour across Keys waters overnight in wake of the recent cold front. The responsible high pressure cell will march quickly eastward across the Gulf overnight resulting in breezes relaxing as it clocks north to northeasterly. For the time being, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys waters, likely being paired back beginning tomorrow morning.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Cold air stratocumulus may deliver spells ceilings just within the MVFR range. Surface winds will be fresh out of the northwest to north with a slow downward trend overnight. This will result in significant crosswinds.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.