textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets will continue through tonight due to higher high tides. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- Rain and thunder chances are on track to decrease to below normal values early next week.

- Breezes will slowly slacken from gentle to moderate to light to gentle across the Keys waters before the start of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1001 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 The first Saturday of October proved to be quiet across the Florida Keys when compared to the widespread showers observed a few days ago. Showers earlier this afternoon were shallow and disorganized across the Straits of Florida and the Outer Gulf waters. GOES East satellite observations were not able to highlight many features directly over the Keys due to a still- significant amount of moisture over South Florida. The 00Z KKEY sounding supported this observation when it sampled an environmental PWAT near the 90th percentile value for the day.

What exactly is happening to create this pattern? In the upper atmosphere, the Florida Keys are beneath the midpoint between two upper level troughs. One is located over the Bay of Campeche while the other is southwest of Bermuda. Earlier today and this evening, the trough over the Bay of Campeche had more of an influence on Key West. That can be seen by the upper level moisture and the layers of cirrus clouds across the region.

What does this mean for someone's day to day experience? Any individual who spent time outside this Saturday would have noticed the humidity was very high. Dew points along the island chain were sampled in the upper 70s to near 80. Sustained gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes have been able to keep the environment from feeling stagnant. However, the pressure gradient is on track to weaken tonight. The cirrus debris shield is gradually clearing. Even though showers were not active in the early evening, KBYX scanned showers developing along boundaries moving away from Cuba and the Bahamas after sunset. Tonight, the 30 percent PoPs hold. Expect to see disorganized showers waxing and waning across the CWA overnight as winds start to decrease. While the atmosphere has struggled to generate lightning over the past few days, drier air filtering in from the northeast suggests showers will be more likely to become thunderstorms. Check the radar when you can!

MARINE

Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the nearshore or offshore waters of the Florida Keys. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease in the Straits of Florida. Showers will wax and wane, but are more likely to develop along boundaries moving away from Cuba or the Bahamas. Gusts near showers could exceed 30 knots.

From synopsis: Atlantic high pressure offshore of the southeastern U.S. will remain in place throughout the remainder of the weekend. This feature will maintain moderate east to southeasterly breezes through the overnight hours. However, a gradual slackening trend will occur during the remainder the weekend and into early next week. In addition, relatively drier weather conditions will settle in late on Sunday, though isolated to scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms could still occur at times. A cold front is on track to stall across northern Florida before mid-week with the highest rain chances remaining north of the Florida Keys. However, precipitation chances will still remain around 20 to 30 percent daily into next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1001 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Near surface winds are on track to slowly slacken with gusts becoming infrequent enough to remove from the TAF by sunrise. Brief periods of SHRA are possible, but not at high enough confidence to include a TEMPO or PROB30 at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 90 80 89 / 30 20 20 20 Marathon 81 88 80 88 / 30 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.