textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong high pressure over Bermuda will remain stationary through the rest of the week into the weekend, supporting an extended period of relatively unremarkable weather. - Moderate to fresh breezes will wax and wane through the weekend, generally peaking during the overnight hours and lulling in the afternoons.

- Rain, with possible thunder, chances anticipated this afternoon and tonight. - Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 VFR conditions prevail for EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. East to southeasterly winds will remain around 15 to 20 knots. Stray showers are possible, but confidence is not sufficient for VCSH. Isolated to scattered cumulus will stream towards the terminals from the Straits, but are not expected to cause MVFR CIGs.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 435 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 High pressure centered over Bermuda will remain the main driver for the Florida Keys sensible weather for the next several days. The western side of this ridge extends over Florida and into the Gulf. This continue to promote moderate to fresh mainly easterly breezes through the weekend. Therefore, the prolonged breezy stretch for the Island Chain is expected to continue through at Sunday before we notice a slight weakening in the high to allow breezes to fall below breezy conditions. Low-level moisture will remain ample with episodic showers remaining possible through the period. There remains the risk for an isolated thunderstorm today and tonight as ample instability remains across the area. Thunder was removed for Saturday through the remainder of the forecast due to confidence being low and statistical guidance showing low probabilities. However, this will continue to be scrutinized over the next forecast cycles. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal for the next week with daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. Also, early to mid next week, a slight strengthening to aforementioned ridge will potentially lend to another period of breezy conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 435 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Straits of Florida tonight. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution is headlined for Hawk Channel with until winds decrease headlined for nearshore waters north of the Island Chain and the SE Gulf. From synopsis, high pressure is centered over Bermuda with the western periphery of this ridge extending west into Florida and the Gulf. This will continue to promote a prolonged period of moderate to fresh breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend. Winds will be strongest across the Florida Straits and weakest over the cooler Gulf side waters.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1987, the daily record rainfall of 5.26" was recorded in Key West. This is also the wettest day ever recorded in March for Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 73 82 73 / 20 10 10 20 Marathon 82 75 83 74 / 20 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Saturday for GMZ052>055- 072>075.