textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions will continue through at least Saturday evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. - A relatively drier pocket of air filtering in will help to keep significant rainfall at bay with only spotty, isolated showers expected through the weekend.

FORECAST

Expansive and strong high pressure across the western North Atlantic will continue to dominate the pattern through at least early Sunday. This will keep the mainly easterly flow in place at least through early Sunday as the western side of this high extends into the Southeast U.S., Florida, and the eastern Gulf. Therefore, expect breezy conditions to continue through the first half of the weekend. Slight moisture undulations around the high will continue to result in slight chances of rain through the weekend. Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of the year with daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s. Dew points will also remain quite steady in the mid to upper 60s, occasionally in the lower 70s.

We continue to watch an upper level feature currently over Cuba. This is expected to continue rotating northeastward through the weekend reaching the Bahamas by Saturday morning. Latest guidance shows this feature will remain closed off as it treks northeastward which will prolong the potential affects it has on the area. This may try to instigate more widespread and robust shower activity today through Sunday, especially across the marine area. If anything, there may be increased cloud cover. There are things working for and against this. After fairly robust activity last night across both ends of the Florida Keys forecast area, moisture will lessen in the low to mid levels today. However, we now have the upper level support. Since one thing is lacking, the potential for this being a wetter weekend is slim whereas if we had both of these ingredients together simultaneously, we'd probably be off to the races with showers and thunderstorms through much of the weekend. Therefore, only slight chance of rain remain in the forecast. An occasional lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out, though, thunder remains low confidence through the weekend.

The pattern will begin to finally breakdown late in the weekend into early next week. The high in the Atlantic will retreat away from the area along with a developing potent low pressure system in the Great Lakes area. This is expected to lead to a decreased pressure gradient as a result. This will finally lead to the breezy conditions coming to an end for the Keys at least temporarily.

In addition, the aforementioned low pressure will potentially send its frontal boundary southward towards the Keys towards the middle part of next week. There continues to be some weak signals in the numerical guidance for a low pressure center to develop along this boundary in the vicinity of the Bahamas. However, the placement and track of this feature remains quite uncertain. Also, numerical guidance is fairly consistent on a rather very strong surface high to move across the eastern United States which may result in another potentially stronger blow across the Keys than this latest one. Details continue to fuzzy during this time frame but it appears another breezy to windy, potentially very windy period may be on the way for the Keys. This may also lead to a wetter regime along with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. However, the intensity and duration for this potential event remain uncertain. Latest guidance has actually come in with a weaker high also. Stay tuned as guidance seems to be struggling on the details in the overall pattern for the middle to latter part of next week!

MARINE

Issued at 428 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, expansive and strong high pressure across the central North Atlantic will continue to dominate the pattern through at least the first half of the weekend. This will continue to promote moderate to fresh easterly breezes, occasionally strong in the Florida Straits. Breezes will tend to peak overnight into the morning hours, and lull in the afternoon. This high will begin to retreat to the east as we head into the start of next week, allowing for breezes to slacken.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. However, MVFR CIGs may be more prevalent than VFR for EYW this morning as low level clouds linger across the area. Near surface winds are expected to be mainly easterly between 13 to 19 knots with frequent gusts to near 25 knots. Also, an occasional shower or two cannot be completely ruled out.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2025, the daily record warm low temperature of 79F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 81 74 82 73 / 10 10 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.