textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunder chances will peak Wednesday through Thursday, with decreasing chances for the weekend.

- Gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes will continue through Wednesday. - Breezes are will slacken to light to gentle for late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 956 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Composite synoptic analysis highlights a rather complicated pattern extending over Central America, the Southeast, and into the western North Atlantic. At the surface, the Florida Keys remain under the grip of a high pressure system centered between Bermuda and the Azores, interacting with a stationary front draped off the Carolina coastline. In the low- levels, broad cyclonic flow continues around a Central American Gyre (CAG) based near the Yucatan Peninsula, with additional vorticity being supplied by a propagating easterly wave passing south of Cuba. Further aloft, the Gulf remains bridged by an upper-level ridge, supported by pretty widespread cirrus advecting in an anticylonic fashion to the Florida Keys. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a moist and uninhibited boundary layer, capped by a weak temperature inversion based at around 900 mb. KBYX radar is only detecting a few isolated showers over our marine zones, mainly northwest of the Lower Keys.

For the balance of today through this evening, we will continue to monitor the progress of the aforementioned propagating easterly wave interacting with the CAG. In the meantime, general meteorological reasoning suggests the cap at around 900 mb will be strong enough to prevent any major convective outbreaks. Another warm and humid day, with slight rain and thunder chances expected for these periods. Thereafter, the interaction of the easterly wave and CAG will likely support bouts of increasing rain chances by late tonight, continuing for the next couple of days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 956 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Wednesday morning. However, increasing rain and thunder chances will be possible late in the TAF period. Have included mention of VCSH for now to account for this at both terminals after 09z, although there is quite a bit of uncertainty in terms of when storms initiate. This will be reevaluated for the 18z standard TAF issuance at both EYW and MTH.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 80 90 81 / 20 30 40 30 Marathon 87 80 87 81 / 20 30 40 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.