textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots is likely through next week due to a potent King Tide. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower to Middle Keys, and a Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect for the Upper Keys. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be required for all of the Keys by Sunday night.

- Northeasterly swell from a Nor'easter off the East Coast will continue to produce 3 to 4 foot seas through the remainder of the weekend in the eastern Straits of Florida off the Upper Keys.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The 00z evening sounding shows a fairly dry and stable profile again with shallow moisture remaining in the lowest several thousand feet. The PWAT value measured came in at 1.52 inches which is at the percentile for the date. The wind profile shows a backing profile which generally isn't that favorable for shower activity, however, the waters around the Keys are still quite warm and any convergence or collision of boundaries will be enough to support showers. Therefore, no changes to the ongoing forecast with at least slight chances remaining for the Upper Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an early season cold front remains draped across the distant Straits of Florida through at least Sunday night, supporting light to gentle northerlies. A Nor'easter remains off the coast of New Jersey which will continue to support a northeasterly swell with large periods in the eastern marine zones through Sunday. The aforementioned front will begin to push back northward through the marine zones on Monday. Winds will then clock back to the southeast to south for early next week, also accompanied by increasing rain and thunder chances. In addition, strengthening high pressure is expected to move off the Southeast U.S. coastline around the middle to latter half of next week. This will promote freshening east to southeast breezes, potentially become moderate to fresh.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions will continue at both TAF sites through this period thanks to a dry, post-frontal airmass. There will be enough shallow low-level moisture to support FEW/SCT cu and perhaps a few brief showers, but coverage will be minimal so precip was not included in the TAF. Sfc winds will remain generally north around 5 to 8 kts, perhaps light and VRB at times during the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 87 78 87 78 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 86 77 85 78 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ076.

GM...None.