textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the middle of the week, with near or slightly below normal rain chances and warm and muggy conditions continuing.

- A weak Saharan Air Layer is on track to move over the Florida Keys by mid week and diminish shower chances for around a day. Heat indices may creep towards 110 around mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Warm and muggy conditions continues across the Keys. This is being supported by an Atlantic ridge that reaches westward across Central Florida and through the Gulf. The flow through the mid and upper levels remain nebulous with weak ridging in control. This evenings sounding indicated the precipitable water was almost exactly normal at 1.78 inches. There was ample CAPE and a little inhibition. The overall dominance of anticyclonic flow has kept convective activity at a minimum through the evening hours with just a few cells on our deep gulf zones. Temperatures are quite warm in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s.

The Atlantic ridge will remain across Central Florida and help drive moderate east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys. A few hours of breezy conditions will be likely in the very late afternoon and evening hours and tend to lull during the day. Forecast soundings indicate a healthy dose of lower level inhibition and drying based just above 900 mb. This should help to keep rain and thunder chances slight to nil over the next couple of days. Expect highs to remain near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Rather humid conditions will persist due to dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s.

Through the latter portion of the week and into the weekend, a cut off upper low will wobble its way westward across the Central Bahamas and into Cuba. An associated lower level trough is still expected to work its way across our general area late in the work week and the start of the weekend. While guidance has been trending weaker with the inverted trough, they still depict subtle and messy lower level troughing and associated swathes of increasing moisture. Expect rain and thunder chances to pick up Thursday night and lingering into the weekend. Winds should trend downwards slightly through this period as the surface ridge lifts further northward and weakens slightly.

The lower levels are expected to dry out considerably beginning in the second half of the weekend, allowing rain and thunder chances to come down. Weakening ridging will try to hold on across the Florida Peninsula and keep breezes generally gentle to moderate east to southeasterly.

MARINE

Issued at 1228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A surface Atlantic ridge stretching westward across the Florida Peninsula has now lifted northward into Central Florida. This with the ridge strengthening slightly will help to freshen breezes across Keys waters over the next few days. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening hours and lull during the day. At least cautions will be required periodically for portions of Keys waters through this stretch. Winds will trend downwards this weekend as the ridge weakens.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM EDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate east to southeasterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 84 92 84 / 10 10 0 20 Marathon 92 84 92 83 / 10 10 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.