textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- An approaching new moon will result in increasing high tides. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the length of the Florida Keys during the higher high tide.

- Moderate coastal flooding may be possible through the first half of next week as this tidal cycle peaks.

- Rain chances will be near to below normal through the weekend.

- Drier conditions are possible as dew points potentially slip to near 70 degrees this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Mild weather has arrived in the Keys. This is thanks to a moderate surface high centered over the Mississippi Valley driving light to gentle northerly breezes and drier conditions through the Keys. It is still warm with temperatures along the Keys reading in the upper 80s. It is noticeably drier with dew points dropping into the lower 70s. A short lived alignment of deep layered ridging across our area has brought in drier air through the column with precipitable water coming in at 1.31 inches in last evenings sounding. There was multiple layers of inhibition, little to no CAPE, and considerable drying was evident above a shallow boundary layer. As a result the overall environment was quite inhospitable and the island chain has remained shower free.

Upper ridging is being dislodged eastward and replace by nearly zonal flow as troughing swings into the eastern United States. The lower through mid level ridge is being shoved southeastward, but largely is expected remain near South Florida and the Keys today. The Mississippi high will continue to shift southeastward and maintain light to gentle northerlies across the Keys. With day time heating, breezes should slacken in the lee of South Florida. Some variability is likely. However, another effect of day time heating will be a subtle surge likely on our western Gulf waters in the late afternoon and evening. Conditions are expected to remain unfavorable for shower formation due to the continued lack of instability, moisture, and lift. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs peaking in the mid 80s and dew points remaining broadly in the lower 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

A sizable 1022 mb high centered over the Mississippi Valley will settle slowly southeastward through the weekend. This will maintain light to gentle north to northeasterly breezes today. Expect some variability to creep in in the direct lee of South Florida, while a subtle surge is likely on our western Gulf waters.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be light to gentle and predominantly out of the north.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.