textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds through the weekend.

- Confidence continues to increase for a potentially wet and thundery period through the middle to latter part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1025 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026 The synoptic pattern across the CONUS is quite stagnant. A stationary front extending from Texas eastward to the Carolinas separates a continental high pressure system centered just east of New England, from an early season Bermuda high centered in the west-central North Atlantic. This Bermuda high continues to dictate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys on this Saturday of Memorial Day weekend. Anticyclonic flow around the high supports gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes, as well as warm and muggy conditions. Temperatures across the island chain are already in the mid 80s, with dew points in the mid 70s. THe 12z sounding at KEY sampled an uninhibited lower troposphere, with generally unidirectional boundary layer flow. Nearby KAMX Doppler radar is sampling percolating, widely scattered showers, mainly in our eastern marine zones off the Middle and Upper Keys. A persistence forecast remains in place for today, with no changes to the inherited forecast required.

MARINE

Issued at 1025 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories for the Florida Keys marine zones. From synopsis, high pressure remains parked east of Bermuda. The surface pattern will remain generally unchanged for the next few days, with breezes peaking to near fresh in the evening and overnight hours, slackening to gentle to moderate in the late morning and afternoon hours. A second high pressure system will reinforce the first, supporting fresh east to southeast breezes late in the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026 Although VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period, passing showers or thunderstorms are certainly possible. Keeping VCSH out of the forecast for now due to the limited coverage and lack of confidence in timing, as well as minimal reductions in visibilities and ceilings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 90 81 91 / 30 20 30 20 Marathon 80 87 80 87 / 30 30 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.