textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-A reinforcing cold front will push through the Florida Keys on Sunday afternoon.

-Scattered showers will be possible ahead of the cold frontal passage.

-A potentially prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions is anticipated for the early to middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 958 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 The strong cold front that pushed through the Florida Keys on Thursday is all but a distant memory at this time. Surface analysis places the Florida Keys in a col region, as a second cold front approaches the Florida Panhandle at this late evening hour. The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a relatively moist, but capped surface to 850 mb layer, with a stable, dry air above. As is typical in a pre-frontal environment, a few nocturnal showers will be possible overnight. Our attention then turns to tomorrow, when the next cold front pushes through the Keys, with showers possible along the front, and windy conditions developing in its wake.

MARINE

Issued at 958 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for all Florida Keys coastal waters on Sunday. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the western North Atlantic will slowly loosen its grip across Florida tonight. As a result, breezes will continue to slacken. The next cold front is progged to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly breezes are forecast in its wake for the early to the middle part of next week. An expansive high pressure system will then move across the eastern United States. This will continue to promote fresh to strong breezes through the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026 VFR conditions with near-nil rain chances will prevail at both island terminals through at least 12z Sunday morning. Thereafter, scattered showers will be possible ahead of a cold frontal passage. Confidence in shower coverage warrants keeping out of the TAFs at this time, although this will be reevaluated at the 06z scheduled TAF issuance. Northeast to east winds will become variable overnight, then back to the northwest to north in the wake of the cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Frequent wind gusts near 25 knots will pose some cross-wind impacts to the terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 68 73 58 66 / 10 30 10 0 Marathon 67 74 56 65 / 20 40 10 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.