textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will wax and wane across the forecast area overnight.

- Bouts of wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday or Wednesday night, with less confidence in rainfall coverage for Thursday.

- Near the end of the week, breezy to possibly windy conditions may return, lasting through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 A rather busy afternoon and early evening for your Florida Keys Meteorologists. A well-defined, early season island cloud line formed across portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. Many island communities saw measurable rainfall owed to weak steering flow associated with the storms. Estimated rainfall amounts ranged from just a trace of rainfall for some areas, all the way up to 2-4" in a bullseye between Ramrod and the Torch Keys. This along with additional convection in the southeastern Gulf waned shortly before sunset, leaving only a few isolated showers and thunderstorms at this late evening hour. Temperatures are generally in the mid 70s across the Keys, with nighttime satellite products detecting generally partly cloudy skies.

For overnight, given the aforementioned radar trends, it is tempting to lower PoPs for the balance of tonight. However, local meteorological expertise suggests several caveats need to be considered. First, as sampled in the 00z evening sounding at KEY, there is still ample convective potential instability, with limited inhibition, for areas that experienced limited earlier activity today. KBYX radar is detecting a number of residual convective boundaries lurking all over the CWA. Finally, the large-scale pattern has not changed over the past 12-24 hours, with a stationary surface front to the north and an upper-level shortwave trough to the west of the Keys to provide synoptic support for ascent. Given these factors, will maintain mid-level chance rain with isolated thunder chances for tonight, although development may take several hours to take place. No changes made to the inherited short-term forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 A frontal boundary stalled north of the Florida Keys will be responsible for breezes becoming gentle to moderate overnight, and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms across the local waters. Seas will be elevated across western marine zones due to a northwest swell. Breezes are forecast to freshen late in the week to the weekend as the front pushes southward, but confidence is low at this time with regards to timing of onset.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 Lurking boundaries from earlier storms in the vicinity of the Keys may interact, supporting additional scattered shower and isolated thunderstorms overnight. Confidence is low for this scenario, but this will be reevaluated for the 06z TAF issuance. Confidence is higher that a cloud line will form late tomorrow morning near the terminals. Included mention of VCSH to account for this for now, with later TAF issuances, to address these impacts as confidence increases, including possible TEMPOs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 70 80 71 / 50 30 40 30 Marathon 80 71 81 72 / 50 40 40 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.