textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes will occasionally become variable through Thursday afternoon.

- Conditions will be marginally favorable for island cloud line formation near portions of the Florida Keys Thursday. Cloud line development will support a marginal risk for waterspouts.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the holiday weekend. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with seasonably warm and muggy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Nearly a meteorological carbon copy from last night for the Florida Keys. A decent cumulus cloud line formed early over portions of the Lower and Middle Keys in the early afternoon hours, sputtered for a bit, then reinvigorated between Key West and Big Coppitt. The NWS office here in Key West on White Street measured 1.38" of rainfall in a little over an hour. Additional outflow pressed southwestward off the South Florida Mainland, but largely dissipated before it made it to the Island Chain. Skies are currently partly cloudy across the Keys, with temperatures ranging from near 80 in the locations that received rainfall, to the lower to mid 80s in the dry communities.

Despite the rainfall at the office, the 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled little inhibition, with plenty of mixed-layer and surface-base CAPE remaining to utilize. In addition, there are likely several residual quasistationary boundaries lurking across the nearshore waters of the Keys. With the nebulous, chaotic flow also sampled in the sounding, any overnight convective outbreaks will be likely limited to boundary collisions of the residual boundaries. Elected to nudge PoPs to slight levels across the CWA, with the exception of the marine zones north of the Keys, favored with more pesky boundaries. Outside of the nudge downward in PoPs, no changes proposed to the inherited forecast package.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, generally light east to southeast breezes will become variable at times through Friday. Any active weather over the marine zones will largely be limited to possible afternoon nearshore cloudlines interacting with any boundaries pushing off the South Florida Mainland through the evening hours. High pressure will gradually build back across the Florida Keys coastal waters late in the week. This will support generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes resuming across the Keys marine zones.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Jul 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 02/24z. The best chances for a passing shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity of EYW and MTH continue to be in the late morning or early afternoon hours, supported by possible island cloud line formation, then again in the evening hours from any outflow boundaries pushing from the Mainland. Due to limited coverage and brief impacts to ceilings and visibilities, have kept mention out of the TAFs for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 83 / 20 20 10 20 Marathon 89 82 89 83 / 20 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.