textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase overnight with peak chances Sunday night, gradually tapering off early next week. Confidence remains low regarding total rainfall amounts.

- Mainly light and variable breezes will continue overnight becoming southwest to west towards daybreak Sunday before shifting to the northwest.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

Overnight into Sunday morning, this frontal boundary will continue to slowly drift southward. However, latest indications are for the convection to be well out ahead of the actual front which is still currently across Central Florida. The actual passage of the front is not expected until sometime late in the day Sunday. The 00z evening sounding is unstable. The CAPE values measured were around 2000 J/kg along with a PWAT value of near 1.5 inches. This is near the 75th percentile for the date. The wind profile displays a veering wind profile with southerly winds at the surface veering to the southwest at 1000 ft with continued subtle veering to 3000 ft. Most of the ingredients are there for the overnight to become active. However, there is one caveat that is of concern. The sounding does display quite a bit of dry air in the low levels from the surface to around 750 mb and then again above 700 mb. If we can overcome this dry air, the overnight into early morning should be quite active. If not, anything that does develop may entrain this dry air and choke off the showers and storms causing quick dissipation. Therefore, the forecast remains unchanged for now.

MARINE

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, mainly light and variable breezes are expected to continue for the next few hours ahead of an approaching frontal boundary before shifting to the southwest to west. As the frontal boundary approaches, moisture will pool across the Keys leading to rapidly increasing rain chances overnight as a result. Rain and thunder chances will peak Sunday night tapering off over the following couple of days. A ridge building over the Gulf and the Florida Peninsula will support a return to dry conditions with light to gentle breezes shifting clockwise, eventually becoming east to southeasterly.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next several hours. A band of rain and embedded thunderstorms currently stretches from outside the SE Gulf waters to the northwest across the Florida Peninsula. This band will continue to slowly sag southward overnight while dissipating. Then, new convection is anticipated to initiate across the Florida Keys with the timing and placement for this activity remaining uncertain. The best chance time appears now to be 03/06z-12z with a lull during the day before another round Sunday evening/night. Any showers and storms will be capable of reducing CIGs and VIS to MVFR conditions along with producing gusty winds. Also, brief IFR conditions cannot be ruled out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 87 77 85 74 / 0 50 60 60 Marathon 87 78 85 74 / 0 50 60 70

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.