textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-One more day of above normal temperatures and muggy conditions.

-Confidence is high that we will enter an active weather pattern over the next seven days.

-A front will move through late tonight into Thursday with a brief bout of breezy conditions. Look for a secondary, potentially strong front to move through early Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. While showers near the island chain have diminished, a chance of rain is held with possibly some showers moving in from mainland tonight. Low confidence in this event being near either terminal will keep mention out for now. Variable winds of 5 to 10 knots will become north to northeast later this afternoon and freshen overnight resulting in winds of 10 to 15 knots with occasional to frequent gusts near 20 knots tomorrow morning.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Another night, another round of showers moving from east to west across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. This is thanks to continued pockets of moisture rounding the base of a retreating low level ridge that is out across the central Atlantic. As this ridge exits stage right, winds are decreasing and have backed to the northeast and east. Despite this shift in winds, temperatures this morning remain in the lower to mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. This is making for a muggy morning on top of an already wet one.

Rain chances look to be best this morning as the low level steering flow for now will remain out of the east. An approaching upper level trough is shunting the ridge further out to sea and will clock the steering winds around from the north during the afternoon. This should push the moisture, temporarily, to our south and across the Straits of Florida. Again this is only temporary as an attendent cold front at the surface is poised to move through late tonight into early Monday with a renewed surge of moisture. In addition, we can expect a brief surge in northerly winds with breezy conditions developing late tonight and continuing into at least Monday morning.

Thereafter, the front will stall across the Straits of Florida. A weak high moving in behind this front will allow winds to relax but will also help to funnel moisture along this residual frontal boundary. As a result above normal rain chances will persist through Tuesday and a threat for thunderstorms will return to the Straits of Florida. On Wednesday, a pre-frontal surface trough will move through clocking winds around first to the east and southeast, then south to southwest, and eventually to west and northwest by Wedneday evening. This clocking of winds, coupled with the lingering frontal boundary will expand the threat for thunderstorms to include the majority, if not all of the Florida Keys and surrounding waters.

A second, stronger front is then expected to blast through sometime Thursday. Models, most recently, have come into much better agreement and it is becoming increasingly likely that we see stronger winds on the back side of this front as well as much cooler weather. Overnight lows Thursday will dive into the 50s and highs on Friday may struggle to reach 70 degrees. High pressure quickly filling in behind this next front will clock winds around to the north and northeast for the weekend with a warming trend expected.

MARINE

Issued at 1130 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for the Deep Gulf waters tonight, and may be required for all other coastal waters except the Florida Bay tonight. From synopsis, a weak ridge axis lies across South Florida and the Florida Keys. This axis will continue to weaken in advance of an approaching cold front that will sweep through late tonight into early Monday. As a result, breezes will slacken to light to gentle briefly this afternoon, then gradually freshen to gentle to moderate ahead of the front. As the front passes through, expect a brief surge in fresh to possibly occasionally strong northerly breezes. A relatively weak high pressure will slide into the Southeast U.S. and allow breezes to slacken back to gentle to moderate by Tuesday. Thereafter, a pre-frontal trough will slide across the region on Wednesday, briefly clocking winds around to the southeast initially, then southwest, and eventually west to northwest. This will be followed by a second, stronger frontal system early Thursday with another round of fresh to potentially strong breezes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 67 76 69 77 / 20 30 30 20 Marathon 69 77 70 77 / 30 30 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.