textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms in association with an easterly wave will gradually decrease through the day.

- Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys.

- A trough is expected to develop and sit along the eastern and southeast U.S., which may result in an active weather pattern early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

After an active early overnight, we entered a brief lull, but now the atmosphere is coming back to life this hour. Numerous showers are quickly developing across the island chain and mainly waters south of the Keys. This is all due to a broad easterly wave that has been slowly pushing westward the last 12 hours. The axis of this wave still lies to our east, just outside our area of responsibility, but will be moving through the area this morning. The highest chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be on the windward, that is the left side, of the wave and will occur mainly this morning.

As the wave exits to the west later today, we will see a gradual decrease in the coverage. At the same time, winds will also be gradually decreasing. By Saturday, the Florida Keys will be left in between features and a col region will set up briefly. This will result in light and variable winds Saturday and Saturday night. Thereafter, a trough will develop and settle across the eastern and southeastern U.S. This trough will wobble in place Sunday through Tuesday, resulting in winds fluctuating between west to northwest and southwest to west.

This trough will also contain a fairly moist air mass and we could be looking at a semi-active weather pattern early next week. In addition, given the southwest to west winds, in conjunction with the trough could allow for better chances at reverse cloud lines for the island chain. This will certainly bear worth keeping a close eye on.

MARINE

Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Showers and thunderstorms remain ongoing this morning for much of the coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys as an easterly wave marches across the area. As the wave exits to the west this afternoon, expect coverage to gradually diminish. Thereafter, we will be between features, resulting in a col developing across the Florida Keys. This will allow for winds to briefly go light and variable Saturday and Saturday night. By Sunday a trough will develop and settle across the southeastern U.S., including the Florida Peninsula. This will result in periods of gentle to at times moderate northwest breezes initially. As the trough slides to the east, expect breezes to back to the southwest and west. In addition, this trough could bring another period of active, wet weather early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

An easterly wave will support VCSH at both TAF sites through the morning hours. A stray shower or storm may develop over the terminals, but confidence is not high enough to include prevailing SHRA or TSRA in the TAF outside of a PROB30 mention for TSRA from 15-19Z with rain chances decreasing thereafter. Will amend if needed. Expect easterly sfc winds at 5 to 10 kts through the period with isolated higher gusts possible in association with nearby shower activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 83 90 82 / 60 20 10 20 Marathon 90 83 90 83 / 50 30 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.