textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Island cloud line formation will be possible in the late morning or early afternoon hours through Tuesday.
- Water levels will approach Coastal Flood Statement thresholds in the Lower and Middle Keys around the time of high tide on Monday through Wednesday.
- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, with heat indices approaching near 100F each afternoon through early next week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across the Florida Keys terminals through 18z Monday afternoon. A broken cloud line north of the Lower Keys warrants inclusion of mention of VCSH in the TAFs at EYW through 20z. The cloud line is expected to dissipate thereafter. Near-surface winds will generally remain light out of the southeast to south, slowly veering to the south to southwest this evening.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 414 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Unfortunately, the atmosphere is on track to become stagnant over the Florida Keys. A broad trough is building over the eastern United States. Over the Atlantic, the environmental high pressure system is distant, centered north of the Cabo Verde Islands. This means a weaker pressure gradient across the country and thus light winds across the Keys. Southerly winds in the 925-700 mb layer also hints at possible dusty layers that could prevent showers. Regardless of the reason, statistical ensembles forecast extremely dry conditions this week. Unfortunately, shower free conditions does not mean lower humidity. June summer is here to stay, and that means we have high confidence heat indices in excess of 100 F will occur this week. Try to manage your time outdoors when possible, because heat sickness can quickly become a problem.
MARINE
Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. From synopsis, with a high pressure system centered in the vicinity of the Azores, light to gentle breezes will persist through the middle of the week across the Florida Keys coastal waters. The interaction of the high with a stationary front draped over the Mid-Altantic will cause general veering to the south by tomorrow. Shower chances are on track to remain very low through the forecast period.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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