textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Scattered showers are expected to continue over the Florida Straits, but only a stray shower or two may make it to the Upper Keys.

-Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are posted for Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida for fresh northeasterly breezes.

-As the front pushes eastward and away from the Florida Keys, much drier conditions will overspread today through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 929 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 It has been another messy night across our forecast area, but the island chain has been spared of most of the shower activity this evening. Our KBYX radar has been busy at work detecting a sloppy, disorganized stretch of ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Straits. Satellite observations have confirmed that the environment across the Straits is still favorable for thunderstorms as almost every satellite scan has shown lightning embedded in some of the stronger shower activity. Recent radar trends have shown a slow northerly progression to this activity, but low level winds out of the north may keep the bulk of the moisture off of the Lower and Middle Keys. Breezes have been elevated due to our proximity to the convection, and automated observations are reporting wind speeds near 10 mph with infrequent gusts near 20 mph. As the activity tapers off during the nighttime hours, breezes will slacken while backing to the northeast to north. Temperatures have been sitting in the lower 70s throughout the majority of the evening due to the cloud cover that has sort of sealed in our surface air mass, and how much more we cool of will depend on cold air advection from the north as well as how much cloud cover can break up. It doesnt seem like the current forecast package needs any immediate updates, but a near term adjustment to reflect a short lived period of elevated breezes may be warranted for the morning forecast package.

MARINE

Issued at 929 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Moderate north to northeast breezes are expected to continue into the overnight as a frontal boundary remains draped across the Straits of Florida. As the front slides eastward and away from the Florida Keys marine zones during the early morning, breezes will slacken. A second weak front will push through the coastal waters late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with modestly freshened northwesterly breezes clocking around to the northeast to east for late week and into the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 929 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025 Flight categories at both island terminals will continue to fluctuate between MVFR and VFR as BKN to OVC decks are sitting near FL010. A lot of this is just cloud debris from ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity to the south of the island chain. MVFR CIGs have nearly a 40 percent chance of lingering through most of the TAF period, but there may be an opportunity for VFR conditions to return after 18Z. Observations from MTH have been intermittent, but AMD NOT SKED has not been warranted yet, and amendments will continue as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 70 79 67 76 / 40 10 10 10 Marathon 70 78 67 75 / 50 10 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.