textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect, and particularly low lying areas will see some saltwater ponding around the times of high tide.

- Increasing moisture across the Keys today through Saturday night will lead to higher rain chances, peaking tonight.

- Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf does not pose a direct threat to the Florida Keys, but it will bring increasing westerly swell into the region today and tonight.

FORECAST

Taking a birds eye view of the weather across the Southeast U.S., Gulf, and Florida, we continue to have Hurricane Isaias over the central Gulf. Isaias will continue to move northward today making landfall somewhere along the Florida Panhandle in the vicinity of Pensacola this evening into the overnight period. All this to say, Isaias continues to not pose a threat to the Keys outside of some enhanced swell affecting our westernmost waters, especially the SE Gulf and the western Straits of Florida. We also continue to have the aforementioned ridge above in the western North Atlantic along with a stationary front draped across central Florida. These features all acting in tandem with one another will create for an increased pressure gradient across the region today. Therefore, expect moderate to fresh southeast to south breezes to continue today and tonight.

The next item of interest will be a current perturbation or inverted trough near central Cuba. CIMSS Mimic TPW- (Total Precipitable Water) products shows also drastically increased moisture in this region. This feature will continue to trek northwestward around the periphery of the high in the Atlantic. This energy is expected to reach the Keys sometime late today and tonight resulting in another uptick in moisture and thus rain and thunder chances. Currently advertising 40% for today and 60% for tonight. Since this feature will have no where to go due to the frontal boundary that is still draped across Florida, we expect the moisture to get strung out across the Keys for Saturday and Saturday night keeping elevated rain chances, currently at 40%. In addition, gentle to moderate southeast breezes will continue through this period.

Ridging is expected to dominate for the second half of the holiday weekend including the holiday itself. One ridge will be over the North Atlantic while another ridge builds in across the Southeast U.S. Both of these acting together will help to keep breezes elevated through the period. Therefore, expect east to southeast gentle to moderate breezes to continue through this period. Drier air will also filter into the area leading to decreased rain chances. Expect daytime highs to remain quite warm in the upper 80s and overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points potentially hovering near 80 degrees through this period. Very warm and tropical for considering we are approaching mid- October at this point.

Numerical and global model guidance is coming into better agreement on a front to press through the Keys sometime Tuesday/Tuesday night. Confidence is growing for a potential dip in dew points towards mid week and slightly cooler temperatures. Dew points potentially down to the lower 70s, or 70 degrees? Could there be potential relief from the humidity to take the edge off as we near the middle of October? We will continue to fine tune this in the coming days. It also appears like this front will press through which may result in near nil rain chances for a few forecast periods before lifting back north as a warm front later in the week with a return to muggier and potentially wetter conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 433 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) are headlined for the SE Gulf waters as well as the westernmost Straits of Florida. Boaters should be aware of less clearance under fixed bridges around times of high tide as a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Florida Keys.From synopsis, Hurricane Isaias will move towards the northern Gulf Coast through tonight, strengthening as it does so. Enhanced swell generated by this system will increase wave heights in the western Florida Straits and Gulfside waters today through the first half of the weekend. A stationary front remains draped across north- central Florida infringing on the surface ridge to its south. This will continue to promote moderate to fresh breezes, especially across the western waters today through at least early Saturday before modestly slackening. A plume of moisture will also move into the Florida Keys at the same time and increase shower and thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 433 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds are expected to remain mostly southeast to south through the TAF period. While there is the risk for a few passing showers or thunderstorms during the day, the better risk will be mainly after 10/03z tonight continuing through the overnight hours. Any showers or storms will be capable of reducing CIGs and VIS, produce gusty winds, and the potential for a few lightning strikes.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2009, the daily record warm low temperature of 84F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. On this day in 2009, the daily record warm low temperature of 83F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951.

OF NOTE At Pennekamp State Park: In 2011, a rainfall of 11.02" was recorded.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 88 82 88 82 / 30 60 40 60 Marathon 88 81 89 82 / 50 50 30 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.