textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will be the primary weather concern through the rest of the week, as indices will approach the mid to upper 100s during the afternoons.

- A Saharan Air Layer will linger across the Keys this week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Weak troughing off the southeast Atlantic coast and an upper level low centered over South Florida are responsible for a split lower level ridge across our area. As a result, surface winds have relaxed over the past 24 hours and are now light to gentle easterlies near the island chain. Temperatures are near normal in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. While we are coming closer to the typically active side of the upper level low, a Saharan Air Layer is keeping the lower levels fairly dry, and more importantly, a nose of inhibition based around 950 mb. As a result, South Florida seabreeze activity largely dissipated as they rolled southwestward off of the coast.

Split ridging will remain across South Florida keeping winds generally light to gentle easterlies. Expect slightly above normal overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Recent forecast soundings suggest the nose of lower level inhibition will weaken overnight, with some lower level moistening. This along with ample CAPE and expected slightly above normal precipitable water makes it difficult to completely follow guidance with near nil rain chances. For the overnight period, will maintain slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A split ridge across the Florida Peninsula will maintain broadly gentle easterly breezes across Keys waters overnight. Winds will tend weaker on our northern waters and stronger on our southwestern waters. Will only adjust down initial winds in the evening marine update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be light to gentle easterlies.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.