textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, raising the risk for heat-related illnesses through the remainder of the weekend and well into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will peak today through Monday, before gradually decreasing.

- Breezy conditions are becoming increasingly likely, beginning as early as tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 426 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Within the last hour or so the radar has blossomed to life with scattered to numerous showers. This is coinciding with an increase in low level moisture pivoting in from the east. Most of the showers are out over open waters but are making a beeline towards the island chain. Meanwhile, the position of the surface high near Bermuda, is maintaining and east to southeast wind across the region. This is keeping temperatures in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.

For today, the influx of moisture will maintain above normal rain chances, which will be a much welcomed sight for many Florida Keys residents. The Keys, especially Middle and Lower Keys, remain in moderate drought conditions. That being said, we're not expecting drought busting rains, but anything is better than none. In addition, as the high near Bermuda moves eastward across the Atlantic, it will build. This will result in breezes gradually freshening through the day.

Breezy conditions are becoming increasingly likely, beginning as early as tonight. Thereafter, we expect breezy conditions to linger through at least Monday night. Then the high will gradually flatten out as an upper level trough becomes cut-off and sits across the southwestern North Atlantic near the Bahamas. While an easterly flow will persist through the end of the new work week, pockets of relatively drier air will move through, dropping rain chances towards the end of the week.

Lastly, a prolonged easterly regime means the air mass will be changing very little if at all. In fact, current guidance suggests that some island communities could tie or set new records for high temperatures during the week. This coupled with dew points in the mid 70s will continue to maintain a limited to elevated risk for heat-related illnesses.

MARINE

Issued at 426 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Moisture has increased across the area, leading to a greater coverage of showers and at times a few isolated thunderstorms. This moisture will linger across the region through the next several days with above normal chances for showers and thunderstorms expected. At the same time, a high pressure centered near and to the north of Bermuda will build, allowing breezes to freshen through the day. Strongest breezes this afternoon will be found across the Straits of Florida, where moderate to fresh breezes are becoming increasingly likely. By tonight, expect widespread moderate to fresh easterly breezes to invade across all of the Florida Keys coastal waters. Breezes will gradually relax by Tuesday as the high across the Atlantic flattens.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 426 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Scattered showers will move northwest across the island terminals today, especially this morning. These showers will bring MVFR and even brief IFR conditions as they pass through. Surface winds will be east to southeast and steadily increase through the day, peaking this evening and continuing well into Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 91 81 91 80 / 40 30 30 30 Marathon 87 80 87 80 / 40 30 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.