textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds over the next 24 to 48 hours will tend to lull during the late morning and afternoon hours, then peak in the early evening and overnight. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys through the weekend, and into the beginning of next week.

- Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Deep layer subsidence and very limited moisture in the low levels has amounted to nothing more than clouds again for the overnight. There is a slightly better plume of moisture moving across from the Bahamas but the current trajectory would push into far southern Florida and maybe the uppermost Upper Keys. Even so, showers are very shallow and isolated and will likely not result in even wet pavements. Meanwhile, we continue to have generally easterly flow across the island chain with current temps in the mid 70s. Dewpoints are in the lower to mid 60s despite an easterly flow, to illustrate how dry it is.

For today, a broad surface high centered near Bermuda, remains stretched out towards the west-southwest across Florida and the Gulf Basin. This feature will slowly begin sliding east in response to a potent shortwave moving into the Mid-Atlantic and New England States. This will weaken the pressure gradient and allow for a thermal trough to develop across the Mainland during the afternoons over the next several days. This will result in winds, especially across the areas immediately downwind of the Mainland, to lull during the morning and afternoon, then peak in the evening and early overnight.

We continue to monitor a backdoor front that is slated to push through sometime on Sunday. This front is not expected to bring an air mass change with it. However, a ribbon of enhanced moisture will filter in behind this feature. This moisture then looks to remain trapped across the Keys as a strong high quickly slides in and settles across the Carolinas through Tuesday. This will result in a sharp uptick in winds Monday night with windy conditions returning and lasting through at least Wednesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will lull during the late morning and afternoon hours, then peak in the evening and early overnight. The Gulfside/Bayside waters will see the greatest lulls during the afternoon as the Mainland heats up. Otherwise, a general slackening trend in breezes is expect as a high pressure across the western North Atlantic pulls further east and away from the Eastern Seaboard. A backdoor front will slide through sometime Sunday with a strong high pressure filling in behind this feature on Monday. This will lead to breezes sharply freshening with a period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes expected early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 339 AM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with occasional passing strato-cu between 4000 and 5000 feet. Northeast to east winds will remain around 10 knots or less with infrequent gusts of 15 to 20 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 73 83 74 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 81 74 82 75 / 0 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.