textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty showers with occasional thunderstorms will continue tonight. Coverage should remain mostly over the waters, but a few showers may pass over the island chain.

- A wetter pattern is setting up, and chances for rain and thunder will remain elevated through the rest of the weekend, and early next week. There is a potential for a couple of strong thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts being the main threat Sunday and Sunday night.

- Breezy to windy conditions may develop as early as Tuesday, and are expected to continue through most of the week. - Moderate drought conditions will persist for the entire island chain, however, beneficial rains will lead to improving conditions next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 946 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 The majority of the evening shift was smooth sailing as afternoon showers over the local waters tapered off by around 5 PM. Visible satellite showed a mix of low level cumulus clouds and some higher level cirrus debris from convection over Cuba. Over the past couple of hours, towering thunderstorms just offshore of Cuba crept into the Florida Straits within our CWA. Radar returns currently show that showers are well to the south of the Lower Keys, but a couple of new areas of showers are developing southeastward of the Middle and Upper Keys. All of this activity is tracking northwest to northward, so carrying the inherited chance of showers and thunderstorms for tonight seems very reasonable. The 00Z KKEY sounding shows an environment supportive of showers with a few thunderstorms mixed in. MLCAPE was calculated to be just over 1000 J/kg, and the lower levels are fairly moist, but some intrusions of drier air aloft may prevent the ongoing activity from building tall enough to be frequent lightning producers.

Current temperatures are leaning warm as our automated observation sites are reporting values near 80F. The warmest observation is coming from Key West International Airport with 81F. An increase in cloud cover over the next few hours should act as insulation, so overnight lows may only come down to the mid 70s. Therefore, the forecast is unfolding as expected, and no changes are needed with this update.

MARINE

Issued at 946 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may create localized hazardous marine conditions. From synopsis, surface high pressure, combined with a stationary front drifting near or over the island chain will continue to dictate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys through this weekend. Expect freshening east to southeast breezes with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Another, more significant frontal system will begin to make its way towards the Keys early next week. This will lead to southeast breezes clocking around the compass, then freshening out of the northwest to north by early Tuesday. Fresh to strong breezes are becoming increasingly likely following the front during the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the 00Z TAF period, but a mix of showers and thunderstorms across the area may approach, and crossover, both terminals at any point in the period. The most likely impacts will be MVFR to IFR CIGs, but isolated heavier showers could result in intermittent VIS reductions. The bulk of the active weather responsible for airfield conditions should take place before 18Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 76 84 75 84 / 50 60 50 50 Marathon 76 82 76 83 / 50 60 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.