textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable conditions will continue today, but slightly above normal temperatures and mid 70s dew points will move in Friday night. - Light and very broadly southeasterly breezes will prevail today, with a fairly short lived gentle to moderate pickup tonight, lasting into Saturday.

- Rain chances will remain low through at least Saturday. A wetter pattern is becoming increasingly likely beginning Saturday night although there is low confidence in rainfall amounts at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Quiet weather continues for now. The stable environment is a product of surface through lower level ridging across our area and the descending brand of an upper level trough running across the Gulf. Last evenings sounding indicated quite a bit of warm and dry air based at a low 950 mb. Consequently, local radars have been precipitation free. The surface ridge will retreat eastward into the Atlantic today, leading to light southeasterly breezes across the Keys. This more veered flow should translate to slightly warmer temperatures than the past few days. The lower level ridge will remain across our area for the short term and maintain a stable atmosphere.

Our weather will begin transitioning heading into the weekend as a mid latitude trough begins swinging through the eastern United States. Initially a deepening surface trough will push northeastward across northern Florida tonight, leading to a short spell of moderate southerly breezes. This veered flow will bring in slightly warmer and increasing surface moisture. Expect temperatures to edge slightly upwards with overnight lows struggling to dip below 80 and dew points climbing into the mid 70s. The wind surge will likely dissipate on Saturday as the bulk of the troughs lifts out, leaving a nebulous pressure pattern across the Keys. Continued inhibition will keep rain chances out through this period due as the lower level ridge is shoved eastward across our area by the amplifying mid latitude trough.

By Saturday night, the long lasting period of stable weather will end as the lower level ridge moves out into the Atlantic, leaving a broad zone of increasing moisture and confluent flow through the lower levels and increasing instability. Later on Sunday a southern stream shortwave trough will partially phase with the mid latitude trough and providing additional convective support. The primary negatives are the surface flow will remain weak, dominated by diurnal and mesoscale features, and an associated frontal boundary is expected to stall just north of the Keys. With that said, the overall setup supports at least high chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Through the first half of the weak the mid latitude trough will lift out into the Atlantic, followed up by building deep layered ridging across the Gulf and Caribbean Sea. Through this, shower and thunder chances will gradually taper off to slim chances. Winds will remain light and variable until mid week where prevailing light southeasterlies build back in as an Atlantic ridge becomes established. Expect near normal temperatures and modest humidity early in the week to gradually increase to a few degrees above normal as the light southeasterlies build in.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

A weak pressure ridge across our area will retreat further eastward today, keeping breezes light and predominantly southeasterly. A messy axis of low pressure will deepen slightly as it migrates northeastward across northern Florida. This will likely result in a fairly short period of moderate southerly breezes from late tonight into Saturday. The pressure field will then quickly flatten, allowing winds to collapse. For late in the weekend through early next week, a mid latitude trough will drive increasing deep layered moisture and support elevated rain and thunder chances. In addition, local winds may be dominated by associated convective activity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. With that said, patches of stratocumulus may deliver MVFR ceilings this morning. Surface winds will generally be light out of the southeast. However, expect varying wind directions.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.