textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower Keys. Minor saltwater flooding low elevation areas is likely, and boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- Heat will be the primary weather concern through the rest of the week, as indices will approach the mid to upper 100s during the afternoons.

- A Saharan Air Layer will linger across the Keys this week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best.

FORECAST

Mean layer ridging is expected to remain the dominant weather feature for the next several days. However, there will be a caveat to it. The aforementioned TUTT cell will continue to slowly propagate northwestward through Friday. This will continue to provide the impetus needed to occasionally spark isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area. Slight chances are in the forecast as a result. Any activity will be capable of becoming strong, since we have plenty of instability, moisture, and trigger being the TUTT cell moving through. Outside of any rain chances, the name of game will be the continued typical summer time Florida heat with highs near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. This won't provide much relief overnight from the heat during the day. Dew points are expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s through the period resulting in heat index values of 105 to 108 degrees at times with spotty 110s. Gentle to moderate NE-E breezes this morning are expected to slacken to light to gentle this afternoon and shift to the east to southeast. Breezes remain light to gentle for the next several days with occasional shifts to the northeast to east in the evenings and potentially variable for a time sometime Friday or Friday night.

MARINE

Issued at 444 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, elongated high pressure extending from the central North Atlantic westward to the Florida Peninsula will support support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through the rest of the week for the Keys coastal waters. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, before modestly lulling in the late morning and afternoon periods. A large area of Saharan dust will remain in place across the Florida Keys marine zones for the next several days, acting to limit rain and thunder chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain northeast to east through a little after sunrise before shifting to the east to southeast and back to the northeast to east this evening.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2023, the daily record warm low temperature of 86F was recorded in both Key West and Marathon. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872 and Marathon to 1951.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 84 90 84 / 10 20 10 10 Marathon 89 83 90 83 / 10 20 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.