textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing moisture in association with an easterly wave will yield much higher rainfall chances mid to late week.

- Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Wind speeds will decrease late week and into the weekend with mainly light breezes prevailing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Showers have gradually been increasing from east to west across the area during the overnight and early morning hours. These showers are a result of a pocket of moisture pivoting around the base of the ridge that has sat out across the Southwestern Atlantic and Florida Peninsula the last several days. This ridge is also maintaining an east to southeast wind across the area with speeds generally 10 to 15 knots across our coastal waters.

Lurking just to our east, across the Southeastern Bahamas, is a broad easterly wave that will be slowly moving into the region throughout the day. As it moves into the area, we can expect winds to gradually back towards the northeast and moisture increasing. Rain and thunder chances will be increasing by this afternoon, and peak overnight into early Friday morning.

As this wave continues a westward motion into the Gulf basin, we will briefly enter a col region for the first half of the weekend with winds going light and possibly variable at times. Beginning Sunday, a surface trough will begin developing along the eastern U.S. which will induce a west to northwest wind across the area starting Sunday. As the trough moves eastward early next week, winds will back to the southwest and west. This could set us up for potential reverse cloud lines next week. Otherwise, rain chances will generally return to near normal, outside of any nocturnal contributions from either Cuba or the mainland.

MARINE

Issued at 445 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Widely scattered showers are moving east to west across the coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys. Winds remain out of the east as a ridge stretches across the Atlantic and across the Florida Peninsula. A broad easterly wave located near the Southeastern Bahamas will be gradually moving westward into our area throughout the day. This will lead to an increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, peaking overnight and early Friday, before gradually diminishing Friday afternoon. While not expecting severe weather with these storms, locally higher seas and stronger winds will be found in and around thunderstorms. The easterly wave will exit westward into the Gulf Basin and a col will briefly develop across the area late Friday into Saturday. This may lead to breezes becoming light and variable at times. Thereafter, a surface trough takes shape across the eastern and southeastern U.S., which will induce a west to northwest wind. Breezes could freshen beyond the current gentle breezes advertised in the Coastal Waters forecast, but confidence is lower than usual at this time. Mariners and encouraged to check back during the weekend for updates to the forecast regarding early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue for a majority of this TAF period with easterly sfc winds around 10 kts. Towards the end of the period, an approaching easterly wave will support scattered SHRA and TSRA. Introduced a PROB30 for TSRA after 00Z for both TAF sites, and TEMPOs may be included in future TAF issuances as confidence improves concerning the expected coverage of precip this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 81 90 83 / 30 70 50 20 Marathon 90 82 90 83 / 30 60 50 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.