textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to a moderate risk of heat illness, with periods of major risk conditions possible. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds.

- Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will continue for the next several days, peaking in the evenings and overnight hours, and lulling during the afternoon hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 207 PM EDT Thu May 21 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals thorugh 18z Friday afternoon. With that being said, widely scattered passing showers with possible isolated thunderstorms may slide in the vicinity of either terminal. Based on radar trends, have included a mention of VCSH at MTH, including a TEMPO, excluding mention from EYW. Impacts to the terminals will be limited to mainly brief reduction in VIS and MVFR CIGs. Coverage will likely wane after 00z, with additional showers possible in the late overnight period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 436 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Surface high pressure near Bermuda will continue to dominate the Keys weather for the next several days. The high will maintain its strength meandering in place. Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes are expected to continue as a result peaking in the evening and overnight and lulling during the afternoons. Moisture is expected to remain elevated through the remainder of the week and into the start of the holiday weekend. This will keep slightly above rain chances in the forecast. Instability will also remain elevated keeping thunder in the forecast throughout the period. Temperatures will remain quite consistent through the week with highs in the upper 80s to occasionally 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 80s to perhaps the upper 70s with any showers.

MARINE

Issued at 1013 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026 Near-surface winds are overproducing a bit at this late morning hour, but are expected to remain below headline or advisory levels through the early evening hours. As breeze briefly freshen in the late evening and overnight periods, Small Craft Exercise Caution Headlines may be required for portions of the Florida Keys marine zones.

From synopsis, high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes this afternoon. This regime will continue for the next few days, with breezes peaking to near fresh in the evening and overnight hours, slackening to gentle to moderate in the late morning and afternoon hours. A second high pressure system will reinforce the first, supporting fresh east to southeast breezes late in the weekend into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 81 91 81 / 30 30 30 20 Marathon 86 80 87 80 / 30 30 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.