textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Upper Keys as ponding of salt water over low lying roads will continue around times of high tide.

- Drier and cooler weather will filter in tonight and tomorrow with breezy conditions at times.

- Breezes will briefly slacken by Saturday night, but an extensive period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes will return by late Sunday afternoon. The windiest days are expected to be Monday and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

Issued at 842 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 This evening, deep longwave troughing is centered over New England extending southwest along the Eastern Seaboard. An expansive zone of northerly flow and cold air advection is in place across the eastern US while a surface ridge is building south from Canada into the Great Lakes region. A cold front extends south from a surface low over the Western Atlantic, becoming oriented more northeast to southwest across the Straits of Florida after passing through the Florida Keys this afternoon. A thin and broken line of showers was present ahead of the front, but coverage has dwindled quite a bit at this hour with only a few isolated showers in the eastern Straits of Florida. Based on radar estimates, some communities along the island chain picked up anywhere from a quarter of an inch of rainfall to a few hundredths of an inch of rain as the front passed through.

North to northwesterly breezes have begun to freshen this evening, especially in the waters adjacent to the Lower to Middle Keys where marine observations are reporting moderate breezes. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes are expected to continue overnight as pressure and thermal gradients become more enhanced in the wake of the front. Dewpoints have also been dropping rapidly this evening with sites reporting values in the mid 60s. Dewpoints are likely to continue dropping through tomorrow, perhaps into the 50s across the Upper Keys, as a significantly drier post-frontal airmass spreads across the area. This will bring some of the coolest air so far this season with overnight lows in the upper 60s before temperatures warm into the mid 70s tomorrow. It will finally feel like breezy Fall day in the Florida Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 A cold front is currently pushing through the forecast area as noted on both automated surface observations and radar imagery. A broken line of showers oriented southwest to Northwest has been tracking to the southeast all day, and has reached the Lower Keys as we are writing this. The Key West International Airport ASOS is reporting wind gusts near 20 mph (or roughly near 20 knots). Marine platforms just offshore from Key West reported similar strong gusts as the leading edge of this front passed through. The shower activity associated with this front isn't very impressive as the showers are broken up and are being ripped apart by the wind speed shear aloft. We could hear some rain from inside of the office, but these showers are moving too fast to drop anything that would lead to flooding concerns.

As this front continues to progress through this evening, winds will increase along the island chain and local waters. The gradient behind the front isn't tight enough to sustain these elevated winds, and conditions should temporarily improve by tomorrow morning and afternoon.

With that behind said, guidance still indicates that the front will initially stall outside of our waters, but will lift through the area as a warm front next week. Winds will increase once again by Sunday/Sunday night, and windy to very windy conditions will prevail throughout most of next week. Additional pushes of moisture will support some shower development, mainly during the middle of the week. For anyone interested in going out on the water Small Craft hazard headlines are likely going to be needed for most, if not all, of next week.

MARINE

Issued at 842 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the eastern Straits of Florida, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across nearly all remaining marine zones surrounding the Florida Keys through tomorrow morning. This is due to freshening northerly breezes in the wake of a cold front which is now extended across the Florida Straits. This front will continue advancing south overnight with persistent moderate to occasionally fresh north-northwesterly breezes across the Florida Keys waters. There will be a slight lull in the winds Saturday night into Sunday, then a strengthening pressure gradient will result in an extended period of windy conditions early next week. Boaters should also be aware of less clearance under fixed bridges at times of high tide near the Upper Keys where a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 842 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both terminals through this TAF period. A cold front has moved through the area, and north to northwesterly sfc winds have increased to around 10 to 12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Winds will remain elevated through the end of the period due to the enhanced pressure and thermal gradients in the wake of the front. LLWS will not be particularly strong, but note that sfc winds may occasionally flow from due north tonight while FL050 winds will back to the west-northwest with speeds around 15-20 kt. A SCT deck of mid to high-level clouds will stream across the area tonight, but impacts to flight criteria are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 69 77 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 67 76 67 81 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for GMZ052- 072.