textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect as ponding of salt water over low lying roads will continue around times of high tide.

- Drier and cooler weather will filter in tonight and tomorrow with breezy conditions at times.

- Breezes will briefly slacken by Saturday night, but an extensive period of breezy to windy conditions will return by late Sunday afternoon. The windiest days are expected to be Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 A cold front is currently pushing through the forecast area as noted on both automated surface observations and radar imagery. A broken line of showers oriented southwest to Northwest has been tracking to the southeast all day, and has reached the Lower Keys as we are writing this. The Key West International Airport ASOS is reporting wind gusts near 20 mph (or roughly near 20 knots). Marine platforms just offshore from Key West reported similar strong gusts as the leading edge of this front passed through. The shower activity associated with this front isn't very impressive as the showers are broken up and are being ripped apart by the wind speed shear aloft. We could hear some rain from inside of the office, but these showers are moving too fast to drop anything that would lead to flooding concerns.

As this front continues to progress through this evening, winds will increase along the island chain and local waters. The gradient behind the front isn't tight enough to sustain these elevated winds, and conditions should temporarily improve by tomorrow morning and afternoon.

With that behind said, guidance still indicates that the front will initially stall outside of our waters, but will lift through the area as a warm front next week. Winds will increase once again by Sunday/Sunday night, and windy to very windy conditions will prevail throughout most of next week. Additional pushes of moisture will support some shower development, mainly during the middle of the week. For anyone interested in going out on the water Small Craft hazard headlines are likely going to be needed for most, if not all, of next week.

MARINE

Issued at 217 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the portions of the Florida Straits adjacent to the Upper Keys, and Small Craft Should Continue to Exercise Caution across the rest of the Straits as well as Hawk Channel due to winds increasing this evening. Boaters should also be aware of less clearance under fixed bridges at times of high tide near the Upper Keys where a Coastal Flood Statement is in for those island communities. Marine conditions should improve by late Saturday morning when breezes will slacken and drier air will filter in. However, another cold front moving through on Sunday will bring an extended period of fresh to strong breezes, and hazard headlines are likely to be in effect once again.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 217 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026 A cold front moving through the area at the beginning of the TAF period will lead to elevated crosswind concerns throughout the TAF period. Initial surface winds out of the northwest near 10 knots will veer to the north and increase to near 15 knots. Throughout the TAF period, the wind direction will go back and forth between 340 and 020, occasionally becoming due north. LLWS isn't mentioned in the TAF, but as the front passes across the island chain tonight, there will be a brief window of time during the overnight where surface winds will be due north, but winds near FL050 will back sharply to the west.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 69 77 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 67 76 67 81 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for GMZ052- 072.