textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate southeasterlies will prevail during the overnight hours, and into Thursday morning.

- Periods of elevated shower and thunder chances will continue through the end of the work week.

- Rain chances will return to near normal by the weekend, and will continue through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A ~1025 mb high centered off the mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward across North Florida and along the Gulf coast. This has brought in gentle to moderate easterly breezes. Last evenings sounding indicated well above normal precipitable water at 2.15 inches, substantial CAPE, and uncapped. Adding to this, the stacked anticyclone of the Carolina coast has left nebulous to weakly cyclonic flow aloft in our region. All this together has resulted in rounds of showers and thunderstorms occasionally sweeping westward across the Keys and its waters.

Little change is expected in the synoptic setup through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, broad lower level troughing will lumber its way westward across the Bahamas and northern Caribbean Sea and through our area. There is no reason to shift from the advertised above normal rain and thunder chances. Expect gentle to moderate easterlies to generally peak during the overnight hours and lull during the day. No trend in temperatures are anticipated with highs remaining near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s.

Heading into this weekend and persisting into next week, some drying will take place through the lower levels. The lower levels will become better dominated by the Atlantic ridge to our north and mid to upper level ridging should be able to expand westward across Florida. These factors should allow shower and thunder chances to slip back towards normal. Gentle to moderate breezes will continue to peak and lull as in prior days and no trend in temperatures or surface moisture is expected.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

An Atlantic ridge balled up off the mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward through northern Florida and along the Gulf coast. This has allowed a relatively tighter pressure gradient to shift into our area and correspondingly moderate easterly breezes. These moderate easterlies will surge and lull through the remainder of the week and into next week, often lulling substantially during the day and peaking in the overnight hours. While cautions cannot be ruled out the entire forecast, they do not appear likely at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A wet weather remains across the Keys and will likely result in episodes of sub VFR conditions and potentially thunderstorms and gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with gentle to moderate easterlies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40 Marathon 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.