textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the Keys Coastal Waters.

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods.

- Uncertainty remains high for the end of the week and into this weekend with rain chances. - A general 1-3" of rainfall and thunderstorms, with locally higher amounts, are possible at most island communities Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1048 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Scattered showers this morning are gradually winding down. Most of the activity is concentrated in a corridor between Elbow Cay to T Tower. Relatively drier is moving in and will greatly reduce the coverage of showers for the rest of today. Meanwhile, high pressure centered near Bermuda continues to dominate our winds with breezy east to southeast conditions. As such, Small Craft Advisories remain active for most of the coastal waters with the exception of the Southeast Gulf waters.

As has been the case each day and night, we will see a minimum this afternoon in rain chances, then increase again overnight as nocturnal instability peaks. Meanwhile, breezes will be slow to ease but will eventually relinquish overnight into Wednesday. Other than a small change to the Small Craft Advisory, made no other changes to the going forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1048 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters except the Southeast Gulf. Moderate to fresh east to southeast breezes will persist through the afternoon and gradually slacken through the next 24 hours. Breezes will noticeably slacken and veer to the southeast to south as the high slides eastward and weakens by the middle of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase for the middle and latter part of the work week.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions expected at EYW today with breezy east to southeast winds. MTH may have brief MVFR conditions from passing showers, otherwise VFR conditions expected along with breezy winds.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 530 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026 Scattered showers have persisted across the coastal waters overnight into the early morning hours for the Florida Keys. While a majority of these showers have been light showers, a few have grown tall enough to shoot off a few lightning strikes before collapsing. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s making for yet again another muggy morning. Across the Reef wind observations are southeasterly at near 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters. As the day progresses, the high that has been assisting with freshening breezes will shift easterly allowing the pressure gradient to weaken resulting in a slight slackening of winds occurring this afternoon into this evening.

Wednesday, the synoptic pattern will change as the ridges continue to shift easterly further into the Atlantic and makes way for troughing to enter the region. The resulting more southerly direction for winds will bring in tropical moisture creating more of a chance for showers. While heavy rain is possible in these showers, we are not mentioned in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook until Friday as a Marginal Risk, though we have been placed under general thunder for Days 1-3 in the Severe Weather Outlook. The shift in pattern and resulting showers and storms probabilities will continue to be closely monitored and adjusted as needed throughout the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 81 90 81 / 20 40 50 40 Marathon 87 80 87 79 / 20 40 50 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031-032-035-042>044-052>055-072>075.