textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- High uncertainty remains regarding the wind forecast. Winds will generally be gentle to moderate out of the northeast to east. However, large swings both up and down will be possible. - Well above normal rain and thunder chances will continue over the next couple of days.

- Increased cloud cover and convective coverage will help to keep temperatures closer to near normal levels over the next few days.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The 00z evening sounding once again shows a very moist profile through the atmospheric column. Instability is also quite high with a CAPE value measured of 2145 J/kg. This is also quite interesting as almost all the activity across the area has not produced any lightning outside of the couple cells across the eastern distant Straits earlier in the shift. The PWAT value measured was 2.22 inches which is 0.04 inches below the max for the date. The wind profile is unidirectional out of the northeast to east with speeds of 15 to 20 knots. Since we continue to have a very moist atmosphere, instability, and a front draped across the area, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast as on and off showers, some of which may be heavy, are expected to continue through at least Friday night.

MARINE

Issued at 1044 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the combination of an expansive eastern United States surface high, a surface trough in the central Gulf will keep breezes generally moderate over the next couple of days. Uncertainty remains high, and periods of higher breezes will be possible, especially due the continued above normal shower and thunderstorm activity expected across the area. Rain chances should trend downwards towards normal this weekend as drier air moves in and breezes trend slightly downward.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026 The wet pattern is expected to continue for at least the next 12 to 24 hours before a drier regime takes hold. Therefore, while VFR conditions are largely expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period, though, occasional periods of MVFR CIGs are possible. Since rain chances remain quite high through the period and due to the nature of the pattern, VCSH was left in the TAF through the time period. Any showers will be capable of producing moderate to at times heavy downpours and gusty winds. There is also the potential for an occasional lightning strike.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 87 77 87 78 / 70 60 70 50 Marathon 86 77 86 78 / 80 60 70 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.