textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower activity will linger through Friday evening before tapering off over the weekend.

- High confidence that breezy to windy conditions will last through the weekend, and into the start of next week.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is out for the Upper Keys because of a strong northeast swell.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 On and off showers have continued throughout this evening shift, but the most productive showers stayed offshore. Radar estimated rainfall totals point to one area over the eastern Florida Straits where approximately 1.70 fell during the afternoon. Another bullseye was just southwest of Cosgrove Shoal Light where approximately 0.70 of rain fell. At this time, our KBYX radar is still hard at work detecting pockets of light showers moving southwestward across the forecast area. The 00Z KKEY and KMFL (Miami) soundings both offered some insight as to why this activity has prevailed. The bulk of the moisture in the vertical profile is confined to the lower levels, around 700mb. Vorticity stacked through the lower levels is likely working with this moisture to keep the shower activity going. Without much of a pattern change overnight, the inherited 30 percent PoP seems reasonable to carry on. These showers have been relatively shallow, and there is a deep layer of drier air aloft, so thunderstorms are very unlikely.

What has been more impressive are the wind observations, particularly across the marine platforms. Throughout virtually all of this shift, the strongest winds have been reported along Hawk Channel where sustained winds were reported to be 20 to 25 knots, or 23 to 29 mph. An ASCAT pass at 0156Z showed a blanket of winds near 25 knots over the waters around the Bahamas, so the gradient wind is holding up well across the area, in general. On land, winds have gusted frequently to near 25 mph, or near 22 knots, just a little less than what is over the water due to surface friction. All of this is to say that these winds aren't going anywhere quite yet. Short term guidance suggests there may be a narrow window during the early morning where breezes may come down a notch, but they'll ramp back up shortly after. No updates or changes are needed to this evening discussion.

MARINE

Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, fresh to strong breezes will continue across all local waters through the weekend, and into the start of next week. Seas will be higher in the eastern Straits due to a northeast swell. Drier air will gradually filter into place, but occasional showers will continue through the beginning of the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 Flight categories will go back and forth between VFR and MVFR throughout the first half of the TAF period as widely scattered lower clouds continue to traverse the area. Cloud bases are around FL025 and 030, but cloud cover is fragmented. Northeasterly surface winds of 10 to 15 knots will see frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots throughout the whole period, but isolated to scattered vicinity showers at the start of the TAF package will gradually diminish.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 73 82 73 82 / 30 30 20 10 Marathon 74 81 73 81 / 30 30 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.