textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- There is increased confidence for an extended period of wet and windy conditions across the Florida Keys this weekend into at least early next week.

- A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Current rainfall estimates are generally between 2-4" inches, with isolated higher amounts, from Saturday through Tuesday. This could lead to localized flooding, especially at high tide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The synoptic pattern and resulting forecast becomes increasingly complicated and impactful for the weekend through early next week. As a large ridge dominates the eastern half of the CONUS, a positively tilted shortwave trough currently in the Rockies will lift northeastward over the ridge, then merge with another shortwave trough currently near British Columbia. As the merged trough amplifies, this will support surface cyclogenesis over the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, driving a strong early season cold front southwestward towards the Southeast late in the week and into the weekend. As is often the case this time of year, the warm ocean temperatures across the Keys will likely help to stall the front somewhere in the vicinity of Central and Southern Florida early Sunday. Confidence continues to increase for this scenario in terms of run-to-run and and model-to-model ensemble consistency, supporting an extended period of veered winds and copious moisture. Coupled with synoptic lift just to the north, frequent bouts of showers and thunderstorms and windy conditions can be expected for late in the weekend through at least early next week. Outside of hazardous marine conditions, our attention will be focused on how any localized heavy downpours interact with already elevated high tides.

MARINE

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure centered just off the Southeast coastline will interact with a weak frontal boundary stalled over the Straits of Florida. This will promote gentle to moderate easterly breezes over the next several days. Late week, a second, much stronger front, is expected to drive southeastward through the Gulf towards the Florida Keys over the weekend before stalling. Fresh to strong breezes, along with squally conditions, will be possible for the latter part of the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required for portions or all of the Florida Keys marine zones by Sunday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs will prevail at the beginning of the 00Z TAF period as cloud cover has been gradually increasing in the area, but prolonged periods of lower categories is not expected. Distant showers and thunderstorms will continue to add to the clouds cover, but most of this should be able FL025. Introducing VCSH into the TAFs at 12Z, but confidence in the location of heavier showers is low. Surface winds will remain out of the east at 10 to 15 knots, eventually decreasing to near 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 79 87 80 87 / 30 50 50 40 Marathon 81 86 81 86 / 30 50 40 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.