textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Some smoke from the National Fire will filter in at times through the overnight.

- Cool and dry conditions hang on for one more night, then a gradual return to above normal conditions will begin on Wednesday

- Light to gentle breezes will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week and gradually freshen. - Rain chances will be zero through at least mid week. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 A cool and dry night lumbers on for the Florida Keys. KBYX radar is unsurprisingly clear of meteorological echoes with GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery noting only a shallow field of stratocumulus over the Straits of Florida. Offshore observation platforms are recording light to gentle breezes broadly out of the northeast with several land stations light and variable. With these variables in play, its no wonder that a large range of temperatures are currently observed along the island chain with local maximums in the mid 50s and the lowest temperatures almost in the mid 40s. Higher temperatures are generally found nearest marine influence while lower temperatures are either in lee of or just more inland where radiative cooling can thrive. Dew points in the lower to mid 40s imply there is still more room for temperatures to fall.

The lowest temperatures of the night are likely to happen early on for a few reasons. Land breezes from mainland sweeping through the Upper Keys towards the Middle Keys later tonight will moderate temperatures as well as increase wind speeds. Meanwhile, higher dew points will advect over the island chain from the Straits as freshening easterlies take over. That could also bring some developing cloud cover. All of this to say, the coolest temperatures are short lived. This evening's KKEY 00z balloon sounding shows an extremely dry profile with a record low PW of 0.17 inches. Rain chances are essentially zero tonight. That will start to change in the back half of this week as high pressure stretches out from mainland Florida to the western North Atlantic, freshening east to southeast breezes and bringing moisture back to our lower to mid levels. That pattern will last into the weekend before guidance hints at another possible pattern change at the start of next week. Stay tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 1050 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, generally light northeast to east breezes will be variable at times overnight as a surface high settles over the Florida peninsula. Winds will steadily clock northeast then southeast over the following couple of days as the high cell stretches out into the Atlantic. A modest easterly wind surge is expected for our southern waters late Wednesday due to the western flank of the ridge lifting into Central Florida. Through the remainder of the week east to southeasterly breezes will trend downwards as the high exits to the east.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight and into tomorrow. Near surface winds will start light and variable becoming east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 52 74 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 53 73 67 80 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.