textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. Minor to moderate coastal flooding may return across the Keys heading into the weekend with the approaching new moon.

- A drying trend will begin tonight and Thursday, followed by the potential for lower humidity Sunday night or Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 900 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 Scattered showers have persisted for a majority of the afternoon into the evening hours for the Florida Keys. While showers mainly in the coastal waters surrounding the island chain, various locations got amounts ranging from a few hundreths up to about an inch reported in Key Largo. According to Nighttime Microphysics skies have cleared out in the Lower and Middle Keys with mostly cloudy skies still in the Upper Keys. Tonight's 00z sounding measured 2 inches of PWAT which is above the 90th percentile for the day according to SPC Climatology. Overnight, showers are expected to diminish in coverage and strength and by tomorrow PoPs are lower for the next few period as some dry air moves into the area. A low level ridge axis off the Eastern Seaboard extending across Florida and near the Keys will continue to help promote light to gentle northeast to easterly breezes through the short term. A Coastal Flood Statement is still in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys as minor coastal flooding continues in those areas.

MARINE

Issued at 900 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper and Middle Keys. Elsewhere no watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, the flanks of a robust high pressure system offshore the Mid Atlantic States will be will eroded by a low over the northeastern United States and a deepening low well northeast of the Bahamas. As a result, northeast to east breezes will gradually slacken through Friday. With that said, there is a potential for brief nocturnal surges each night through the next several days. In addition, drier air will be filtering in this evening and lasting through the end of the week, leading to diminishing rain chances. A surface high will develop across the Gulf beginning Friday, which may lead to brief nocturnal wind surges along the west coast of Florida and into the outer Gulf waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 900 PM EST Wed Nov 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Dry air is expected to move in tonight limiting shower development therefore around 4z VCSH is taken out of both terminals. Near surface winds will be northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots overnight.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.