textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will remain near- nil for the next couple of days.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, but Wednesday and Thursday may see heat index values above 100F, particularly along the Upper Keys.

AVIATION

(03Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 00z Tuesday evening, with generally near-nil rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 955 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 GOES-19 infrared satellite imagery depicts upper-level anticyclonic flow over a ridge extending across the Gulf eastward to the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a weak area of high pressure system resides in the central North Atlantic, providing light east to southeast breezes across the Keys becoming variable at times. The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled an uninhibited boundary layer, but a series of stable and dry layers above 800 mb. Coupled with the lack of any well-defined flow, KBYX radar is detecting no shower activity across the CWA.

With little change in the tropospheric profile expected overnight, elected to remove PoPs altogether for the first period. With the currently-observed light and variable winds continuing for the next several hours, radiational cooling should support lows dipping to near 80F at most communities. Otherwise, no other short-term changes needed in this extended stagnant, dry, warm, and muggy pattern.

MARINE

Issued at 955 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes will persist through the middle of the week across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Starting Tuesday night to Wednesday, the Mid- Atlantic high will begin to strengthen and support slightly fresher breezes through the end of the week. Breezes will generally be southerly and trend southeasterly after Wednesday. Shower and thunder chances are expected to remain very low through the forecast period. The greatest chances for showers would be in the nearshore waters off the Lower and Middle Keys in the late morning and early afternoon associated with island cloud lines.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.