textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds through Tuesday.

- Confidence continues to increase for a potentially wet and thundery period Wednesday through next Sunday.

- A general 2-4" of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are possible at most island communities for this period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 549 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026 Another night of scattered showers throughout the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. KBYX is currently detecting showers in the nearshore waters of the Lower Keys and in the Gulf waters near T Tower. The stronger of the activity has been able to produce a few lightning strikes but not able to sustain the strength for that long of a period. Surface observations along the island chain indicate temperatures in the lower 80s with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 70s, maintaining humid early morning conditions. Marine observations along the Reef are reporting southeasterly winds generally at 15 to 20 knots. As a result, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are in place for all coastal waters due to those elevated winds.

Starting Wednesday, the pattern is expected to undergo a transition as the ridge shirts away from the area. This will cause veering to the south promoting the transport of additional moisture into the region. Increased moisture along with passing through short wave troughs will support locally heavy rainfall across the Keys. Current estimates are 2-4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts from Wednesday through Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 549 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are in place in all coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a North Atlantic high pressure system centered near Bermuda will support fresh east to southeast breezes through Tuesday night. Breezes will noticeably slacken and veer to the southeast to south as the high slides eastward and weakens by the middle of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase for the middle and latter part of the work week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Isolated showers are possible throughout the day but confidence on exact location and timing will leave them out of the TAFs for the time being. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of up to 25 knots through the afternoon.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.