textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions, with an occasional lull, are developing across the Florida Keys.

- High confidence that breezy to windy weather will last through at least early next week.

- Coastal Flood Statements are out for the Middle and Upper Keys because of a strong northwest swell.

FORECAST

Once the frontal boundary gets forced south towards Cuba, the environment across the Keys will become more predictable. There is high confidence that a rebuilding high pressure system over the eastern United States will push fresh to strong winds south into the Florida Keys waters. Aloft, a very prominent ridge is forecast to center over the northern Gulf. While frontal boundaries and chaotic pressure systems are expected to form across the central United States, there is high confidence weather across the Florida Keys will be dominated by breezy to windy conditions through the weekend. Recent statistical model guidance calculated he 10th to 90th percentile wind speed spread over the weekend to be between the lower and upper 20s. Dry, blustery conditions are set to return across the Florida Keys. Skies should become very favorable for stargazing once this weather pattern sets up.

MARINE

Issued at 450 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Florida Bay, Bayside and Gulfside waters, Hawk Channel, the Florida Straits east of Craig Key, and the Outer Gulf waters. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds over the waters of the Florida Straits west of Craig Key. A pronounced wind surge moved over the northern Florida Keys coastal waters late last night. Breezes freshened rapidly north of the island chain, which required Small Craft Advisory conditions in the early morning hours. The onset of fresh to strong breezes will be delayed in the southernmost zones while wind waves build across the nearshore waters. Drier air and fresh to strong breezes will surge in before the weekend, and are forecast to persist through early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026 Stratocumulus clouds on the north side of a frontal boundary will be responsible for off and on MVFR CIGs across the Florida Keys coastal waters. While shower coverage is decreasing near the island chain, occasional showers may be able to form near the terminals. Expect winds to increase during the day with persistent gusts at both terminals by afternoon. Crosswinds will be less of a concern while winds remain northeasterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 73 82 73 / 30 30 30 20 Marathon 81 74 81 73 / 30 30 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052-072.