textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Measurable rain chances will remain low through the weekend, only up to 10% for each forecast period.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, but we may see heat index values above 105F, particularly along the Upper Keys, through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

We had quite a bit more excitement in the late evening and early hour of the overnight as convection spilled off the Mainland and across the waters north of the island chain. Unfortunately, none of the precipitation made it to the Keys themselves. Given that we were under a weakened pressure field, the mesoscale forces took charge and we briefly saw a surge of northeasterlies. This was very short lived and the winds have already clocked back around from the southeast. The northeast winds we saw were too brief to even nudge our temperatures down and Key West is on track to tie another warm low temperature. We did actually see dew points fall a few points and briefly dipped to the mid 70s.

The only changes in the last 24 hours is that a broad ridge the lies from the central North Atlantic to the Gulf Basin is fracturing into two smaller cells. This will lead to winds gradually becoming light and variable by this afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday night. The ridge will consolidate Monday and briefly strengthen allowing for winds to increase Monday and Monday night. However, as mentioned it will be short lived and the ridge will weaken again with winds coming back down.

Meanwhile, moisture will continue to be incredibly limited to the boundary layer with drier air and deep layer subsidence above this. This will keep rain chances at 10 percent or less through the weekend and into Monday. As the ridge consolidates on Monday, we could see pockets of slightly better moisture pivot in at times. With that being said, chances will remain slight (10 to 20 percent) at best next week. Despite no air mass changes occurring through the forecast period, dew points may come a few degrees next week.

MARINE

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Winds breifly went northeast as convection spilled off the mainland and across the waters north of the island chain. This was short lived and breezes have clocked back around from the southeast. A broad weak high pressure across the region will further weaken today allowing breezes to become light and variable by this afternoon and continuing through Sunday night. The high will briefly strengthen Monday with freshening breezes but quickly weaken again by Tuesday with breezes undergoing peaks and lulls.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions expected today. Lingering boundaries nearby the EYW and MTH may come to life with isolated showers or thunderstorms this morning. That being said, they look to develop just outside the range for VCSH/VCTS mentions at this time. Otherwise, southeast winds will go light and variable by the afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 84 90 84 / 10 10 0 0 Marathon 88 84 89 84 / 10 10 10 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.