textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Measurable rain chances will stay low for each forecast period through this weekend, generally at 30% or less.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy.

- There will be little relief in the warm temperatures overnight, with minimum temperatures near record values in the lower to mid 80s for most communities.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1022 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 Heat continues to be the primary concern across the Florida Keys. Temperatures peaked near 90 F across the island chain, though a thunderstorm that moved across the Florida Keys Marathon International Airport this afternoon kept the high in the upper 80s. Dew points linger in the mid to upper 70s, which is why heat indices have been struggling to reach 108 F. Showers, while not widespread, have been rapidly developing into short lived thunderstorms across the waters. The evening KKEY sounding traveled through an atmosphere with an environmental PWAT slightly above the 50th percentile value. That does not mean the environment is dry, because GOES-East estimated Total PWAT across the Keys is 1.7 to 1.9 inches. Turns out that showers and thunderstorms started to pulse over the Outer Gulf waters shortly after sunset. The overall synoptic setup is not changing quickly over South Florida, so it's likely the overnight hours will be defined by waxing and waning thunderstorms across the nearshore waters. Thus, maintaining the current forecast for the night.

MARINE

Issued at 1022 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a broad high pressure system centered over the North Atlantic will continue to extend westward to the Florida Peninsula through early next week. The high will fluctuate in strength and location, while maintaining east to southeast breezes. This will support bouts of light to gentle breezes that may freshen to gentle to moderate at times, mainly in the overnight hours. In addition, scattered showers and isolated storms will move across all coastal waters of the Florida Keys at times, which could produce blinding downpours, gusty winds, and occasional lightning strikes.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. Scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA will wax and wane over the Florida Keys airspace. Short lived MVFR to IFR conditions are possible if a TS moves over one of the terminals. Winds will remain near 10 knots out of the east to southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 91 83 91 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 84 89 83 89 / 30 30 40 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.