textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is present early this morning over the southeast Gulf and the Lower Keys and its nearshore waters. This is expected to subside as the sun rises.

- Winds will increase later today, peaking Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the next weak cold front. Although rain chances are in the forecast ahead of and along the cold front, mainly dry conditions will continue for the next seven days.

- A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 455 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 A very moist morning is ongoing across the Florida Keys. GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics detected a mass of low stratus in our Gulf waters off of southwest mainland Florida late yesterday evening. Light northerly flow has gently pushed this feature towards the Middle and Lower Keys through the night. What started as simply low stratus with some mist at the Marathon ASOS has now become fog detected at both Boca Chica and Key West International Airport as this cloud deck stretches across the majority of the Lower Keys all the way out to the Dry Tortugas. It then comes as little surprise when we observe temperatures and dew points only a couple degrees off of each other with readings for both currently in the lower 60s across the island chain. Meanwhile, a few stray showers are attempting to bubble on the eastern edge of the Straits of Florida emphasizing the wetter low level environment surrounding the Keys.

While the ongoing fog event has been looming for the past few hours, skies look likely to clear up quite quickly as the day kicks off. The low level stratus deck that had been meandering south towards the island chain has sped up on its approach. A burst of northeasterly flow looks to have not only accelerated this cloud bank, but also thinned out its area clearing skies behind the main cloud mass. Long story short, this development would point this event being short lived not to mention further deterred by the sun rising in the next few hours.

In the short term, high pressure loosely centered over the Carolinas will be one of the main influences on our sensible weather. As it starts to meander east into the western North Atlantic today, our breezes will pivot to the east. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough rushing through the Great Plains and its associated surface low will interact with the broad high over the Eastern Seaboard tightening the pressure gradient and increasing our wind speeds through the afternoon and into tonight. Thus Sunday will begin with moderate to fresh breezes across our waters before gradually declining into the evening hours as a front associated with the shortwave approaches Florida.

While there is not a sharp wind shift expected with this weak frontal passage, there are some ingredients present for convection Sunday night. Moisture advecting into the mid levels along with decent upper level support and low level veering should give us at least a chance of rain with this front's approach. MOS Guidance looks to be trending a touch earlier with the peak of rain chances now adjusted to the Sunday night into early Monday period though this will likely fluctuate as days go on. Following the front, winds will turn to the north at the start of the week for a day or so bringing a brief cool down for Tuesday morning. Otherwise, dry conditions look to prevail for the rest of the work week even after winds return to their usual easterly direction by Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 455 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 No watches, warnings or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, but some patches of early morning fog may be observed in the southeast Gulf and nearshore waters of the Lower and Middle Keys. From synopsis, high pressure centered somewhere over the Carolinas will promote veering gentle breezes today. It will then dive off the Mid- Atlantic coastline and interact with a developing area of low pressure north of the Gulf Coast tonight into Sunday, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes. The low pressure system will nudge a frontal boundary through the Keys Monday evening. A potent surge of northerly breezes is not expected in the wake of this front. Behind this front, breezes will slacken appreciably as the next high pressure slides into the eastern Gulf Basin.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 A swath of low stratus/fog is moving south to southeast across the Gulf waters towards the Lower and Middle Keys. Observations from Naples indicate 1.5 mile visibility with LIFR CIGs. However, the warmer waters around the Keys are slowing progression of the fog. Visibility impacts are limited to MVFR to IFR VIS at most, but periods of LIFR CIGs are expected before the fog dissipates. Expect light northerly winds before a shift to northeasterly after sunrise.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys weather history in 1899, the daily record low temperature of 44F was recorded in Key West. this also ties as the coldest low temperature ever recorded in February. Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 76 68 78 68 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 75 68 78 69 / 10 10 10 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.