textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Gale Watch remains in effect for Saturday morning through Sunday morning. Gale-force winds could develop beginning as early as Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday morning.

-Rain chances will gradually decrease through the afternoon. Rain will be ending from west to east.

-A strong cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Saturday, with a line of showers expected along and just ahead of the frontal passage.

-Very cold and windy conditions are expected Saturday evening through at least Monday morning. A Wind Advisory and/or a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be required for portions or all of the Florida Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 342 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Rain activity is gradually diminishing with remnant showers in the far southeastern Straits of Florida. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate northerly breezes persist this afternoon and will briefly slacken overnight across the Florida Bay and Bayside waters ahead of the next approaching front. Ahead of this front, we expect a fast moving line of squally showers during the morning hours. This line could move into the Southeastern Gulf as early as sunrise Saturday and then race eastward across our waters. Given the fast nature of these showers, sustained winds of 25 to 30 knots with gusts of 40 to 45 knots could potentially accompany this line. The front itself is expected to arrive during the afternoon and early evening hours with a substantial northwesterly blow. Gale Watch remains in effect for all waters. Gale-force winds could develop beginning as early as Saturday afternoon, and would continue through Sunday morning. As high pressure builds in behind this front and reinforces the cold air advection with an arctic airmass, winds will be slow to slacken. As such, expect hazardous marine conditions to continue through at least Monday. Thereafter, we will see a considerable drop in wind speeds.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 342 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the evening and overnight. Gentle to occasional moderate north to northeast breezes will slowly back towards the west and northwest towards dawn Saturday. Confidence was high enough for a potential line of squally showers Saturday morning as early as 14Z, that a PROB30 has been introduced. This squall will precede the front and winds could briefly slacken but sharply increase in the afternoon and evening as the front moves through. Wind magnitudes of near 30 knots from the northwest with frequent gusts to 45 knots are expected in the wake of the frontal passage.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 600 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026 Isentropic analysis highlights upglide along the 292-298K potential temperature surfaces at this early morning hour. CIMSS MIMIC total precipitable water product depicts a region of enriched moisture south of the Florida Keys, with 850 mb geopotential height and vorticity analysis placing the Florida Keys in a weak area of cyclonic flow. Local KBYX Doppler radar is detecting scattered, generally light showers dotting portions of the Florida Keys as well as the marine zones south of the Island Chain. Temperatures have dropped little overnight owed to widespread mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures generally in the lower to mid 60s in the Lower and Middle Keys, and in the upper 60s in the Upper Keys.

Confidence is very high in the eventful forecast through the weekend. A strongly positively-tilted shortwave trough is progged to dive towards the Mid-Atlantic States today and this evening. Global ensemble mean products are in marked agreement that this will result in rapid cyclogenesis just offshore of the Carolinas on Saturday and Sunday. Closer to home, the sensible impact of this system will be a very strong cold front diving through the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys, with an arctic airmass in its wake for Saturday night through Monday. The interaction of high pressure building in the wake of the front with the deep cyclone off the Carolinas will support several hours of gale force winds across the Keys marine zones, and a rare Gale Watch has been issued for coastal waters. This will likely be upgraded to a Gale Warning on Saturday, and additional Wind Advisory and Cold Weather Advisory products may be required. Temperatures will be near- record levels during this period, with temperatures likely colder than we have seen in the Florida Keys in well over a decade.

High pressure will slowly slide eastward through the week, and the upper-level geopotential height pattern will flatten for several days. This will support slowly moderating temperatures through Thursday, before yet another coastal system may form off the Carolinas late in the week, driving another possible cold front through the Keys. Confidence in this long-term forecast is low at this time.

In the meantime, stay warm, Florida Keys residents and visitors.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 62 68 47 58 / 10 70 20 0 Marathon 60 66 42 55 / 10 60 20 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Gale Watch for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.