textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Gentle to moderate broadly E-SE breezes will prevail, peaking overnight and lulling during the day, except moderate to fresh breezes for Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida overnight. - Rain and thunder chances remain slightly above normal for overnight with near to below normal shower and thunder chances starting tomorrow.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
The 00z evening sounding shows a very moist and unstable atmospheric profile. Instability was measured quite high with CAPE values between 3000-3500 J/kg. The PWAT value measured also came in quite high at 2.05 inches. This is just above the 75th percentile for the date. The wind profile is mainly easterly with some slight veering with 080 degrees around 1000 ft to 120 degrees at 3000 ft. Overall, current thinking for the overnight is that any convection that can get going most likely will be able to become a thunderstorm due to all the instability. Also, GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water as mentioned above in the discussion shows a plume of much drier air moving into the Keys. This is also believed to be the leading edge to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that is expected to move in for the next several days. Usually the leading edge to these moisture fronts can act as a catalyst to get some more robust convection. The best chances for the activity overnight appear to be across the western portions of the Keys, especially the Lower Keys westward. Other than that, the only catalyst that may spark activity would be speed convergence with perhaps a little bit of directional convergence, especially later in the night.
MARINE
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) for increasing winds is headlined for Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida overnight. There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, ridging will gradually build in across the region, and will maintain gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly breezes on our waters. Marine caution headlines will be in place for Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits due to a brief period of freshening breezes overnight. However, winds will trend slightly downwards heading towards mid week as the ridge settles southward across Central Florida. Expect swings in wind speeds, generally lulling during the day and peaking overnight. Shower and thunder chances will be near to below normal through the forecast.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain east to southeast through the period. There may be a passing shower or storm overnight into the early morning on Monday, though this is a low risk. Therefore, VCSH was not included in the TAF.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 92 83 92 83 / 30 40 20 10 Marathon 90 84 90 84 / 30 30 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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