textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-A few light showers may brush the island chain at times over the next few days. -Temperatures will gradually trend cooler by a few degrees due to north to northeasterly breezes advecting in cooler air.

-Another front will move through on Thursday, bringing a reinforcing push of colder and drier conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Near surface winds will be northeasterly with occasional gusts of 15 to 20 knots, slightly decreasing to near 10 knots this evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 548 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026 Weather conditions along the island chain have been fairy quiet throughout the overnight shift, but our KBYX radar has been busy detecting a line of showers extending from the central Florida Straits northward along the Miami coast. The showers near Miami are slowly tracking southward, and its possible that the Upper Keys may have a few light showers on their doorstep by early this morning. Over the past few hours, breezes have increased ahead of a frontal boundary with the automated station at Key West International Airport reporting gusts near 20 mph. Breezes will stay elevated during the morning as this weak cold front sags into the nearby waters. Surface observations across South Florida suggest the leading edge of this boundary is likely draped across the southern half of the peninsula as this is where we can see the most striking change in dew points.

The cloud cover combined with the cooler air filtering in from the north will lead to cooler highs today in the mid to upper 70s. While we are advertising a chance of showers, 30%, for the island chain as a whole, the best chances of rain will be in the Upper and Middle Keys as the current activity near Miami drops southward before the cold front can nudge it away from the island chain. The front is still expected to stall somewhere across the Florida Straits, and the lingering low level moisture will have the opportunity to form on and off shower activity over the next few days.

Agreement is coming together across various forms of guidance related to a reinforcing cold front on Thursday. Guidance continues to show drastically freshening breezes over the course of Thursday as the front moves through. High temperatures look to drop into the low to mid 60s by the end of the week with dew points coupled in the mid 40s to lower 50s. This front will lead to a break in some of the shower activity as we head into the weekend, but occasional pop up showers cannot be ruled out, so we will continue to point to low end chances of rainfall. Overall, the end of the week looks like it will be drastically different than what we have seen over the start of this week.

MARINE

Issued at 1124 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026 Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all Florida Keys waters through early afternoon until winds decrease and seas subside. From synopsis, a frontal boundary progressing into the area will lead to a short period of fresh to strong breezes through today slackening later this afternoon. A relatively weak area of high pressure will gradually slide into the southeastern U.S. and allow breezes to slacken back to gentle to moderate by Tuesday. Thereafter, a pre- frontal trough will slide across the region on Wednesday, briefly clocking winds around to the southeast initially, then southwest, and eventually west to northwest. This will be followed by a second, stronger cold front on Thursday with another round of fresh to potentially strong breezes.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.