textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding is expected again overnight, and a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for all of the Florida Keys. Coastal flooding will gradually decrease over the weekend, but receding rates may be slow, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will become light to gentle at times through the end of the week with only a slight chance (20%) of rain until the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 An upper-level composite analysis this evening revealed a ridge extending from the Gulf basin northward into the central United States, while a mean trough was analyzed from the Bahamas northward over the adjacent subtropical Atlantic. Data from the Key West evening radiosonde balloon indicated a moist and unstably stratified atmosphere with some convective inhibition energy at low altitudes. Very dry air was present above 700mb. Latest Key West Doppler radar base reflectivity animations show scattered moderate to heavy showers moving southwestward near 10 knots mainly over the southeastern Gulf zones with isolated cells south of the Florida Reef tract. Skies are mostly clear over most Keys island communities, with current air temperatures near 80F and dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s. Winds were blowing out of the northeast near 10 mph.

Water levels are on the rise once again, and major saltwater flooding is likely in low-lying areas. Low-lying streets, lots, and some properties will be inundated between late evening and early Friday morning. As such, a Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect.

MARINE

Issued at 1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters zones. Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys through the first half of the weekend. By late Saturday, a high pressure system developing over the eastern United States will be able to build and set up north of the Carolinas. Breezes may be able to freshen to moderate to fresh over the northern waters of the Florida Keys. Northerly swell over the easternmost waters will be a concern for the second half of the weekend. Shower chances are also expected to peak Saturday night through Sunday night. Currently, the forecast does not suggest marine hazards will be required for the Keys Coastal Waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Through 30/24Z, prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both EYW and MTH.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.