textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding will continue across the Keys during the next several tidal cycles. Coastal flooding will gradually decrease later this week, but receding rates may be slow, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Breezes are expected to slacken to light to gentle northeasterlies during the rest of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Surface through lower level ridging stretches across the southeastern United States. Meanwhile, a weak disorganized area of low pressure remains centered roughly over Cuba. As a result, northeasterly breezes have come down to light to gentle across the island chain through the day and evening. Despite the presence of the low, forcing has been weak, and this evenings sounding indicated limited CAPE and some drier layers through the lower levels. As a result, shower activity has been spotty and relegated primarily to the outer Florida Straits and far deep gulf waters. Dew points have surged over the past 24 hours and are now in the mid 70s. Temperatures are slowly falling through 80 degrees.

The weak low will continue to loose definition through the overnight period, but will keep breezes light to gentle northeasterly over the island chain. Breezes will tend gentle to moderate over the deep gulf waters where the pressure gradient is tighter. Overall convective forcing is expected to remain limited and forecast soundings keep CAPE limited with some drying through the lower levels. As a result, will keep slight chance PoPs for the overnight period. Expect lows to settle into the upper 70s for most island locations with dew points remain in the mid 70s. As a result, it will feel much more sticky and humid tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The combination of a ridge across the southeast and a weak low centered over Cuba will maintain light to gentle northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period. The exception to this will be gentle to moderate northeasterlies on our deep gulf waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. With that said, there will be a chance for MVFR ceilings due to passing stratocumulus. Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the northeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning for FLZ076>078. GM...None.