textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remaining near to slightly above normal through the weekend with light to gentle breezes.

- Rain chances will remain slight across the island chain this weekend. - A strong high pressure system sinking into the northern Plains from Canada is forecast to freshen breezes early next week. Breezy conditions are possible at times. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 10:00 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 Clear skies prior to sunset quickly became partly cloudy with a mix of a little Straits cumulus moving northwest and an elevated deck above 5K feet in a thin layer. Temperatures were in the mid 70s with lower 70s dewpoints...not typical fare as we head for the close of February. Light east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 mph were occurring, and a steady 8 to 13 knots out on the Reef.

The evening sounding at Key West showed a nearly saturated base of the boundary layer and a moisture layer near 900 mb, helping support a 1.15 inch precipitable water almost exactly matching the GOES estimates. Pockets of slightly higher moisture were noted to the southwest and to the northwest, the latter being closer to the approaching upper shortwave trough digging over the eastern Gulf. 500 mb height falls were a single decameter aloft. Low to mid level heights were near the means for the date although column moisture was a little above.

Tonight, the situation involves how much erosion of the western flank of the western Atlantic ridge will occur to halt the east to southeast light to gentle breeze into a light or light northerly wind over the lower to middle Keys. Some mesoscale guidance is jumping on the near saturated boundary layer to produce sub-1K foot cloud bases and fog, but at present feel this may be more of the possibility for Gulf waters offshore to the north, but not the relatively warmer eastern Florida Bay, nearshore Keys and Straits. However, this will have to be monitored through the night especially if a boundary layer draft out of the north occurs...a cool Gulf shelf-waters breeze, if you will. Otherwise the same mesoscale guidance had earlier occasionally supported shallow showers from very low level convergence, enough to leave the current 10 percent rain chance intact overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 10:00 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 This evening, winds were east to southeast 8 to 13 knots along the reef, and closer to 5 knots on the Gulfside. Seas at Satan Shoal were just under 2 feet from the east with a 6 second period. A ridge across the Atlantic is pulling further east while a frontal boundary stalls across north central Florida. The combination of these features will place the Keys in a col region beginning late tonight through Saturday afternoon. As a result, expect slackening breezes through this period with variable directions at times. Despite moisture moving into the region, an unfavorable wind direction will limit rain chances during the day Saturday and Sunday but increase chances at night. Thereafter, a broad high pressure system is forecast to migrate into the eastern United States, which would support freshening breezes, especially across the Straits of Florida.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 10:00 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 A nearly-saturated boundary layer will support lower cloud bases than previous nights, with few to scattered bases FL012-015 having been detected at the Florida Keys terminals and Ocean Reef airport. VFR should prevail with a secondary cloud deck FL050-060 expected to decrease in coverage over the next few hours. A few showers are possible in the Straits of Florida toward morning, but there are no present indications warranting a vicinity shower mention at either EYW nor MTH. East to southeast surface winds 5 to 10 knots may become 5 knots or less and back quickly northward at EYW, and owing to the light speeds variable winds were indicated after 28/0800Z. East to southeast winds 4 to 8 knots are likely to resume after 28/1400Z.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.