textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions remain somewhat favorable for an island cloud line and associated waterspouts today.

- Rain and thunder chances will gradually return to near normal by early to middle part of the week.

- Highs near 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s suggest afternoon heat indices will peak at 105 to 108 degrees.

FORECAST

Mostly dry air will continue to be the main story for the next couple of days across the Keys. However, just enough moisture is available to support slight chances of showers and thunderstorms through at least Monday night. Weak ridging will also continue to dominate with mainly southeast breezes occasionally becoming variable this afternoon and early evening. The ridge over the Atlantic builds a little further westward tonight into Monday leading to an increasing influence across the area resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes. Since the flow is expected to mainly be light today, there is the potential for a weak cloud line this afternoon. The main inhibiting factor will be the dry air that is in place. Otherwise, the warmer than normal weather will continue be the main story with daytime highs near 90 degrees. Overnight lows won't provide much relief in the lower to mid 80s while dew points remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Moisture is expected to increase across the region beginning Tuesday with this continuing throughout the week. A more typical pattern for this time of the year is expected to ensue with more frequent and widespread showers and thunderstorms. The ridge across the North Atlantic will keep its western periphery across the Keys leading to moisture undulations as well as peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak overnight into the morning before lulling during the afternoons. Daytime highs near 90 degrees continue through the week, though, overnight lows will dip some due to the increased rain chances into the lower 80s.

TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 3 areas across the Atlantic Ocean with none of these systems currently posing a threat to the Keys. The area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic has a low or near 0 percent chance of formation over 48 hours with a medium or 50% chance of development over the next 7 days.

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to east breezes through tonight, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, southeasterly to easterly breezes will become more established from tonight through the middle of next week, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the overnight hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mostly southeasterly, though there is the potential for a period of light and variable winds this afternoon continuing into the early evening hours. In addition, a weak cloud line is possible today which keeps the risk for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Due to timing and placement uncertainty, VCSH was not included in the TAF.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1895, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

On this day in 1975, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 84 91 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 82 / 10 10 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.