textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure dominant across the area will continue to support relatively unremarkable weather through at least Thursday. - Moderate to fresh (strongest in the Florida Straits) east to southeasterly breezes will prevail tonight, eventually veering to the southeast to south and slackening by early Thursday. - Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. Increasing moisture is anticipated towards late in the week and over the weekend bringing some beneficial rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 753 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Deep layered ridging remains in firm control of our weather this evening. At the surface, an Atlantic ridge stretching westward across Florida and the Gulf supporting gentle to moderate east southeasterly breezes across the Keys. This flow continues to pump in warm air. Temperatures are still in the mid to upper 70s. Dew points remain in the lower 70s. This evenings sounding indicated considerable dry air above the surface and little to no instability below 700 mb. Consequently, shower activity has been nearly nil through the evening across the forecast area.

While a mid latitude trough is expected to sharpen as it swings eastward over the eastern United States, mid to upper level ridging will remain across South Florida and the Keys. On the other hand, the lower level ridge will be degraded quite a bit by the trough. In addition, the surface ridge will be nudged southeastward into the Florida Straits. In response, surface winds will begin trending downwards as they clock southeast. Overall, rain chances will remain slim to none overnight due to continued dry air and ridging aloft, the best lower level confluence remaining well to our north, and a weakening flow. Expect overnight lows in the mid 70s with dew points remaining near or slightly above 70.

MARINE

Issued at 753 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

An Atlantic surface ridge across South Florida will be nudged southeastward into the Florida Straits overnight as a frontal system pushes southeastward into the Gulf and far southeastern United States. As a result, marine breezes will gradually clock further southeast overnight while trending downwards. For the time being, a Caution remains in effect for the Florida Straits. This will likely be lowered later tonight. Otherwise, no changes planned for the evening marine update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the east, shifting southeast overnight.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.