textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes and rough seas will continue today across the Straits of Florida. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution is headlined as a result.

-Near seasonable temperatures and a mainly dry pattern are expected to continue through the weekend along with near seasonable humidity levels.

-The next, potentially strong cold front is progged to push through the Florida Keys early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Dry air will limit any showers and keep cloud development to a minimum. Near surface winds will be north to northeast at near 10 knots, with occasional gusts through the afternoon of 15 to 20 knots.

FORECAST

Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 Surface high pressure across the northeastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate breezes for today (Christmas Day), except moderate to fresh across the Straits of Florida. The high will continue to slowly meander to the southeast over the coming days leading to further slackening breezes. By the weekend, breezes will mostly light, though, there may be some periods of light to gentle. Also, breezes may become variable at times as the high will virtually be right overhead especially over the weekend into early next week. Moisture remains shallow across the area, though, we cannot rule out a few brief quick moving sprinkles or showers today and tonight. Therefore, slight chances (10%) remains in the forecast. Most of this activity will only be capable of producing a trace to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall. In addition, a modified continental air mass will remain over the Keys which will help to keep humidity in check for the next several days.

Looking ahead to the final days of 2025, numerical guidance continues to show indications of a potent front moving through the area. The timing of the front appears to be sometime Tuesday/Tuesday evening next week. The magnitude and strength of this front continues to be uncertain. Therefore, the main takeaway continues to be a cooler regime, dip in humidity, slight chances of showers, and another period of potentially breezy conditions. Stay tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 1052 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 Small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease and seas subside in the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the northeastern Gulf supports gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes, except moderate to fresh across the Straits of Florida. The high will weaken as it continues to drift slowly southeastward through the weekend, leading to slackening breezes.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.