textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunder chances will only be slight (near 20%) through the rest of the weekend. - While highs will be seasonably warm in the upper 80s through next week, lows will remain warmer than normal, providing little relief from the heat in the overnight hours.

- The next opportunity for an uptick in active weather looks to be the middle of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 152 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Periods of MVFR CIGs are possible during the afternoon. Occasional showers are expected over the waters near the terminals, but confidence is not sufficient to include VCSH. Winds are expected to rotate around the compass during the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 509 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026 Muggy conditions will continue today as the pattern will see little change. Breezes will remain light and variable, but may assume a southwesterly direction for a short period of time in the afternoon due to daytime heating. This would offer an opportunity for reverse cloudline development. With weak steering flow, around 3 knots, this could result in a prolonged period of rainfall where any cloudline develops. All of this depends on whether on not southwesterlies prevail long enough to make this happen, so this is something that will have to be monitored in real time.

Guidance still points to a deep trough digging into Florida by the middle of the week, and sending a frontal boundary down the peninsula. Generally, this means an uptick in rain chances, but one caveat is the potential for some Saharan dust potentially arriving at the same time. Guidance may be overdoing rain chances over the middle of the week, specifically on Wednesday and Thursday, and it will be something to keep in mind as the forecast evolves.

MARINE

Issued at 1020 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure across the area will support light to gentle southwesterly breezes over the next few days, becoming light and variable at times. Near normal rain and thunder chances also expected. A weak frontal boundary may stall near the Keys coastal waters by mid week, supporting an uptick in wind speeds as well as rain chances.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2024, the daily record warm low temperature of 84F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in May. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 89 81 89 / 10 20 0 20 Marathon 81 88 81 88 / 10 20 0 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.