textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft Advisories conditions continue in our eastern coastal waters due to elevated seas.

- Weather will trend drier and modestly warmer over the next few days.

- The next cold front is scheduled to push through the Florida Keys on Thursday afternoon or evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 A very cold morning for the Florida Keys. Record lows were unofficially set at both Key West and Marathon International airports, with temperatures bottoming out at 49F and 44F, respectively. Despite mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies across the Island Chain, northerly breezes are preventing temperatures from warming appreciably thus far today. Current land-based surface observations are detecting temperatures generally in the upper 40s in the Middle and Upper Keys and in the lower to mid 50s in the Lower Keys. The forecast for today calls for temperatures nudging up into the mid to upper 50s and nil rain chances.

Our attention will then turn to tonight. With slackening breezes and minimal cloud cover, a potential radiational cooling may unfold, supporting yet another very cold night, particularly in the sheltered portions of the larger islands.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 545 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 While we've generally seen the extreme ends of both the temperatures and winds for this event, cooler conditions are on tap to start the week. A cold surface high pressure currently just east of the western Gulf will continue sliding towards the Florida Peninsula today. This will continue to promote moderate northerly breezes sustaining the cool, dry air mass currently in place. Thus, the environment captured by yesterday evening's KKEY 00z sounding should be a good prediction of what today's thermodynamic environment will entail. A large mass of dry air above a sharp inversion at 850 mb with dry surface conditions easily calls for another round near nil rain chances today and tonight. High temperatures will still have a fight to reach over 60 degrees today, but clearer skies than yesterday will allow for more daytime heating.

The high will keep it's eastward trajectory into the middle of the work week allowing it to stretch out over the western North Atlantic. This will gradually veer breezes to the northeast by late Tuesday. High temperatures will warm consistently into Wednesday, but parallel flow along the island chain at night may result in some bouts of radiative cooling with some possibly overachieving low temperatures. Current guidance has yet another cold front crossing through our area on Thursday that will then reinforce our cooler weather with a day or so of breezy northwesterlies. These solutions are a touch later and less intense than the previous forecast package, but still look to drop temperatures back into the 40s and 50s Thursday night.

MARINE

Issued at 1029 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the eastern Straits of Florida off the Middle and Upper Keys, with residual seas near 7 feet. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are posted for the remaining Straits of Florida south and west of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, moderate, generally northerly breezes are expected this afternoon and tonight. North to northeast breezes will slacken appreciably on Tuesday, becoming gentle to moderate. Near the end of the week, another cold front may push through the area, and could bring another push of freshening breezes and building seas.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 15z Monday morning. Near-surface, mainly northerly winds will occasionally gust to 16 to 18 knots throughout the afternoon, with gusts becoming less frequent and lower after 00z this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 61 54 68 60 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 58 50 65 59 / 0 0 0 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ052- 053-072-073.