textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle variable breezes will continue through the night. Patchy fog will be possible in the early Sunday morning hours.

- A strong cold front will press through the Keys Sunday night, leading to cooler temperatures, a substantial drop in humidity, and a period of windy conditions. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. The combination of dry air and windy conditions will lead to a period of elevated fire weather concerns Monday afternoon, particularly in the Upper Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 915 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 Another comfortable and calm evening is unfolding along the Florida Keys. Temperatures are sitting in the mid 70s with accompanying dew points near 70F. Breezes have been light and variable, but we haven't been plagued by stuffy air since our dew points are still relatively dry compared to other times of the year. If it was currently July, and we had these light and variable breezes, you would be able to wear the air. Our KBYX radar is void of any meteorological returns due to the prevailing higher pressure coupled with ample amounts of dry air through the vertical profile. Various GOES-19 channels show pockets of some cloud cover at different heights across the area, but nothing substantial enough to block out the stars just yet. Based on the 00Z KKEY sounding, these clouds are likely around 5k and 23k feet, give or take a few feet. Otherwise, the air is just too dry to support meaningful cloud cover at this time.

No changes to the current forecast package are needed at this time. We will continue to advertise some fog development during the overnight hours close to, and including, the Lower and Middle Keys. Low visibilities are notated on some isolated observations on the peninsula, and GOES-19 Night Fog channel is detecting either fog or very low stratus developing across the state.

MARINE

Issued at 915 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, light and variable breezes will continue overnight into early Sunday due to a nebulous pressure gradient across the region. A strong cold front will sweep through the Keys coastal waters beginning Sunday evening with strong, potentially near gale, northwest to north breezes anticipated in its wake. Winds will slowly slacken and veer to the northeast, then eventually shift to the east to southeast Tuesday through Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 915 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 There is a modest chance, approximately 20 to 30 percent, of fog developing near both island terminals during the first half of the TAF period. If light northerly winds push the fog over the island chain, conditions will deteriorate quickly to IFR and LIFR thresholds. Opting to keep a period of MVFR conditions between 10Z and 15Z due to some uncertainty related to timing, but amendments may be needed once fog actually develops. A cold front moving through the area at the end of the TAF period will bring northerly crosswinds of near 20 knots with frequent gusts up to 30 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 69 79 58 62 / 0 40 20 0 Marathon 69 80 55 62 / 0 30 20 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.