textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Fresh to strong northeast to east breezes and well-developed seas will support Small Craft Advisories for all Keys coastal waters this afternoon.

-Breezy conditions continue through Christmas Eve night, slackening for Christmas Day and through the end of the week.

-Slight chances for showers (10%) remain in the forecast for this afternoon and tonight, with near-nil rain chances expected thereafter.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025 Although a passing shower cannot be ruled out, especially in the vicinity of the MTH terminal, VFR conditions will prevail through 18z Wednesday afternoon. Northeast to east winds will frequently gust to near 20 knots through 00z this evening, with gusts become less frequent late in the TAF period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025 Surface analysis places a 1032 mb high centered just west of Bermuda continuing to jog eastward in the North Atlantic. In the fresh to strong easterly breezes and in a zone of weak low-level confluence, available local Doppler radars are detecting isolated passing showers in the favored Upper Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters. With winds veering to the east, temperatures have also rebounded, with all available land- based surface observations highlighting temperatures hovering near 80F at this late morning hour. A stagnant pattern will support continued slight rain chances through the rest of the afternoon primarily in the vicinity of the Upper Keys, temperatures maybe warming another degree or two, and breezy to windy conditions. No changes proposed for this forecast update cycle iteration.

MARINE

Issued at 1134 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a sprawling high pressure system centered over the western North Atlantic will support fresh to strong northeast to east breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters this afternoon and evening. Thereafter, high pressure areas north of the Florida Keys will fluctuate in both position and intensity. Moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes will prevail across Keys coastal waters through mid week, diminishing thereafter.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025 Surface high pressure just of the North Carolina coastline will maintain breezy conditions throughout the Keys until at least Wednesday night. A developing low pressure system south of the New England coastline will act to weaken and flatten the aforementioned high leading to slackening breezes for Christmas Day through the weekend. Moisture remains shallow across the area, though, we cannot rule out a few brief quick moving sprinkles or showers today and tonight. Therefore, slight chances (10%) remains in the forecast. Most of this activity will only be capable of producing a trace to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall as they progress through. In addition, a modified continental air mass will remain over the Keys which will help to keep humidity in check for the next several days. Dew points may even dip a bit more over the next 24 to 48 hours into the lower to mid 60s.

A progressive pattern remains across the northern tier of the lower 48 with multiple low pressure systems moving from west to east. To the south of this progressive pattern, high pressure will remain the dominant feature across the Southeast U.S., Florida, and the Gulf. Breezes will continue to slacken across the Keys from Christmas Day through the weekend as a result. Drier air moves into the area for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day leading to a dry forecast. The dry conditions are expected to continue into the weekend, though, there are some indications the second half of the weekend will lead to slight chances returning.

Looking ahead to the final days of 2025, there are indications of a potent front moving through the area. The main takeaway right now is to expect a cooler regime, dip in humidity, and another period of potentially breezy conditions. However, the magnitude and strength of this cold front is still being ironed out. Stay tuned.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 72 78 70 77 / 10 10 0 0 Marathon 72 79 70 79 / 10 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.