textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Upper Keys around the times of high tide, but high tides peaks will continue to trend downward.

- Rain chances will remain near to below normal through mid week, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, and will open the door for a period of breezy to windy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 854 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 KBYX has remained quiet for the last few hours with only a few showers in the distant offshore waters earlier this evening. Temperatures along the island chain are near 80 with dew points in the lower 70s. Marine locations along the Reef are reporting east to southeasterly winds at near 10 knots. Tonight's 00z sounding revealed another relatively dry profile with PWAT just above the daily mean value according to SPC Climatology. For the rest of the night into tomorrow conditions are expected to remain similar with near nil rain chances and east to southeasterly light to gentle breezes. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Upper Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A weak and broad area of high pressure is gradually passing across the area as it shifts from the southeastern Gulf to the Bahamas and western Atlantic. The center of this high is difficult to make out on satellite-derived products, but the anticyclonic flow of the cloud field suggests that the center of this high may be situated somewhere near, or over, South Florida. Our radar has remained dry this afternoon, likely due to a combination of the stable atmosphere and the decrease in moisture in the vertical column. Satellite-derived layered PWAT suggests that the pocket of air aloft has around a third of an inch less of water in the vertical column, or around 1.25", compared to this morning.

This high pressure will continue to make its way toward the Bahamas and the western Atlantic, and will allow for a brief period of even lighter surface winds. Our relatively benign weather conditions will continue through Wednesday night/Thursday morning as the high shifts farther away. Over the course of Thursday and Friday, a pattern change will be underway for the Sunshine State. A cold front will progress down the peninsula, and is expected to knock on our backdoor sometime Thursday night and Friday. The tightening pressure gradient will result in a window of breezy conditions with a cooler northwesterly wind. Rain chances will also peak, around 30%, but the precise sensible weather will depend on just how far southerly the front can go.

Guidance continues to favor the front lifting out of the area over the weekend, and a brief period of drier, cooler conditions will be left in its place. However, some ensemble members are highlighting the opportunity for an area of high pressure to take its place, and to reinforce the breezy to windy conditions from next Monday onward. Wind directions will shift northeasterly, but there is some question as to what kind of influence this will have on "backing up" the Gulf stream. Coastal Flood products may be needed once again early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 854 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper Keys. Elsewhere, no watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect. From synopsis, high pressure will gradually track through the southeastern U.S. and will move into the Bahamas and western North Atlantic over the next couple of days. This will allow for east to southeast breezes to undergo a slow slackening process through Wednesday night. Thereafter, a strong cold front will steadily march towards the Keys and is expected to push through the Keys marine zones on Friday morning. As a result, breezes will gradually clock around the compass and freshen Thursday through Friday morning. A period of fresh to strong breezes is possible Friday night into Saturday morning before briefly slackening. A reinforcing front on Sunday will bring back the potential for a prolonged period of fresh to strong breezes.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 854 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2026 Generally dry skies and light winds near 5 to 10 kts will continue through this TAF period with VRF conditions prevailing. Scattered clouds may develop overnight, but shouldn't impact ceiling heights. Rain chances remain very low, under 10 percent.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.