textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, raising the risk for heat-related illnesses for the next several days. - Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes expected through the Thursday afternoon into the evening, especially off the Upper Keys. - Rain and thunder chances will remain slim through the weekend.

- Breezy conditions are possible by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

The overnight started off quiet but a weak frontal boundary has been slowly lurking closer to the Keys. This along with ample moisture, kickstarted new showers and even a few thunderstorms. Most of this activity is out across the Straits of Florida but some ongoing showers remain across the Upper Keys this morning. Meanwhile, southwest winds through the majority of the night has kept temperatures in the lower 80s. On top of this, dew points have held in the lower to mid 70s, keeping conditions quite muggy.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to slowly push south and southeast through the day. Ample moisture will remain trapped ahead of this boundary and additional showers will be possible, especially in the Upper Keys. In addition, this feature will interact with a high pressure across the Atlantic, allowing for another brief wind surge in the afternoon. This will result in freshening breezes across the Florida Bay, Upper Keys, and easternmost waters of our CWA.

We are not expecting any real air mass changes once this boundary finally passes through. Dew points will briefly fall back into the upper 60s to lower 70s late tonight through Friday night before returning to the lower to mid 70s for this weekend. This combined with highs remaining in the upper 80s to even lower 90s, will elevate the risk for heat-related illnesses through the upcoming weekend. Remember to take frequent breaks in the shade and drink plenty of water if you plan on being outdoors for extended periods of time.

Relatively drier air will move in behind this weak front this afternoon through Friday decreasing rain chances briefly. By late Friday night, the front will lift back north as a warm front and lift the moisture back across the Keys. This will result in episodic periods of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for the weekend and into early next week. Thereafter, a new high pressure will move off the Eastern Seaboard and out across the Atlantic, promoting more of an easterly flow. Pockets of dry air will be embedded within the flow but generally expect rain chances to hold above normal.

MARINE

Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain ongoing this morning, mainly across the Straits of Florida. A weak frontal boundary is slowly approaching from the north and will continue a southeast progression through the day. This will maintain a threat for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly across the Straits of Florida. In addition, this feature will interact with a high pressure out across the Atlantic, which will promote a brief wind surge this afternoon and into the early evening. Moderate to fresh west to northwest breezes will develop across the Florida Bay and easternmost Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida waters as a result. Thereafter, expect winds to slacken appreciably and clock around initially to the northeast and east, and eventually east to southeast late Friday. As a new high pressure moves across the eastern half of the US and out across the Atlantic, expect easterly breezes to freshen again.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Showers will remain in the vicinity of the terminals this morning as a weak frontal boundary slides southeastward today. The best chances will be this morning, however, if we get enough sun through the afternoon, additional activity could develop. Otherwise, expect west to northwest winds around 10 knots through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 82 90 82 / 10 10 0 20 Marathon 88 80 88 81 / 20 10 0 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.