textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized ponding of saltwater will remain possible during times of high tide across the Florida Keys as tidal levels trend down through the end of the week.

- The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, and will bring stronger winds and higher seas to the area. - After a brief lull this weekend, another frontal system will bring another round of windy and showery weather early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 438 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

The first half of the overnight remained quiet with some showers and thunderstorms occurring across the extreme Southeast Gulf waters north of our AOR. However, within the last one to two hours, the first signs of a moisture surge have manifested across the Straits of Florida. Showers have been steadily increasing in coverage across mainly the southwest Straits of Florida. So far no lightning has been observed but the potential is there as instability is increasing. The limiting factor at this point is the lack of widespread organized lift.

A high pressure that was northeast of the Bahamas yesterday has now exited fully out across the Atlantic. In its place a building low pressure system is moving across the eastern U.S. this morning. The base of this low pressure system will steadily slide southward and enter our area by the afternoon. As this occurs our current light and variable winds will steadily increase and become southwest to west later this morning and then west to northwest by the afternoon. This cyclonic clocking motion will allow for boundaries to collide and interact, resulting in higher rain and thunder chances than in days prior. That being said, the Keys themselves will be in between pockets of better mid and upper level support. Therefore, precip chances look to be maximized across the surrounding offshore waters.

As the front pushes through the area tonight, expect winds to further increase and shift more northerly. A secondary, stronger front arrives sometime Friday with even stronger winds expected.

MARINE

Issued at 438 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Showers are quickly developing across the Straits of Florida and this trend will continue through the morning. Showers are also beginning to enter the Southeast Gulf waters west of the Dry Tortugas. As the morning progresses, individual showers will strengthen and become thunderstorms. In addition, an approaching front from the north will steadily freshen breezes while clocking from their current southerly regime, becoming west to northwest by this afternoon. Mariners should be prepare for locally higher winds and wave in and around any developing thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 438 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions will be expected outside of any passing shower or potential isolated thunderstorm. Current timing of showers to our south and southwest would arrive at the EYW terminal by 12Z. Thereafter, expect coverage to wax and wane at times through the day with likely VCSH present throughout the TAF period. Near surface winds are light and variable but will steadily increase and come around from the west to northwest by this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 74 81 69 / 30 30 20 10 Marathon 84 74 82 67 / 30 30 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.