textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Breezy north to northeasterly breezes will continue through a good portion of the morning before rapidly decreasing by the afternoon. -Cooler and very dry air will result in nil rain chances today. -Expect steady moderation through late week and weekend, but conditions will remain cooler and drier than normal.

-Another reinforcing front is expected to move through the area sometime on Sunday or Sunday night.

-A potential prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions is anticipated for the early to middle part of next week.

FORECAST

The aforementioned high pressure system will continue to slowly move off to the east through tonight. This will lead to rapidly slackening breezes through the day as the gradient collapses. Vast dry air will keep rain chances nil for today and this evening. Daytime highs today will only manage to reach the mid 60s and this may occur late in the day to even after sunset. After the sun comes up this morning, temperatures may actually continue to cool some across the Middle and Lower Keys before moderating. As the flow becomes more easterly tonight, the wind will help to keep the air more moderated tonight which may inhibit temperatures from falling all that much. As of now, current thinking is temperatures may stay fairly steady overnight in the lower to mid 60s with little change from late daytime highs.

High pressure continues to move farther out into the western North Atlantic over the weekend. This will lead to generally light to gentle northeast to east breezes through Saturday night. Slight moisture return is anticipated overnight leading to slight chances (10%) in the forecast after midnight. This moisture return will be mostly shallow and might not be more than just an increase in cloud cover. The moisture becomes a bit deeper for Saturday and Saturday night resulting in 20% PoPs.

Confidence continues to increase for another front to press through the Keys sometime Sunday afternoon/late Sunday. This will result in another shot of cooler air, breezy to windy conditions, and a dip in humidity. In the wake of this front, a rather large high pressure system is expected to move across the eastern United States which is expected to keep the breezes elevated for much of the week. Moisture will remain scarce with most of the shower activity, if any, remaining across the Straits. It is not until the middle of next week when the moisture might be able to creep just far enough north to affect the Island Chain. Due to this, slight chances are now in the forecast for mid to late next week. Temperatures and dew points will also slowly moderate through the week. Expect temperatures to be back to slightly above normal to above normal by late in the week.

MARINE

Issued at 428 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters this morning. From synopsis, in the wake of the cold front yesterday, fresh north to northeast breezes will prevail early this morning. High pressure will quickly slide eastward across the Southeast behind the front. This will support rapidly slackening breezes later today through Saturday with breezes continuing to clock to the northeast to east. The next cold front is progged to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters on Sunday or Sunday night, with fresh to strong northerly breezes in its wake for early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. A few mid level clouds around FL040 will continue moving off to the south to southwest early this morning. Otherwise, expect a sunny day with any clouds not moving back into the area until this evening and overnight. Near surface winds will be north to northeast 7 to 14 knots this morning, shifting to the northeast 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, and then becoming mainly east 4 to 8 knots tonight. Gusty winds to near 20 knots will continue early this morning before quickly diminishing by the afternoon.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1877, the daily record high temperature of 90F was recorded. This is also the warmest temperature ever recorded in January, and the only time the temperature has ever reached 90F in Key West between the dates of November 18th and April 4th. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 64 64 73 67 / 0 20 10 20 Marathon 65 65 75 67 / 0 10 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.