textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Straits of Florida.

-Mainly dry conditions expected through Wednesday. Rain chances modestly increase by Thursday, continuing through the end of the work week.

-The next, weak front is expected to push through the Keys on Friday, with minimal changes to the seasonably warm conditions expected in its wake.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025 Surface places what was once a cold front that blasted through the FLorida Keys late Sunday into Monday is now stalled as a stationary front east of the Bahamian Islands. High pressure downstream from the front has shifted offshore of the Carolinas and continues to slowly weaken. For the Florida Keys, this supports northeasterly breezes in the slow process of veering to the east. The 00z evening sounding conducted at KEY sampled a moist, yet generally stable layer up to around the 700 mb isobaric surface, with extremely dry, continental air just above.

Overnight, a zone of confluence as winds slowly veer to the east, coupled with the moist boundary layer and moderate to fresh breezes should support a few isolated showers, mainly in the vicinity of the Upper Keys. Elected to add dime PoPs to account for this scenario as part of the evening update package. Other than that, temperatures should remain generally near steady overnight near 70F, with occasional wind gusts near 20 mph. No other changes proposed.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Straits of Florida at this late evening hour. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue in the Straits through the overnight hours. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are posted for Hawk Channel and the southeastern Gulf as well. From synopsis, moderate to fresh breezes, with occasional strong breezes across the Straits of Florida, will persist through the overnight hours. As an area of high pressure slides into the central North Atlantic by late Wednesday, breezes will slacken for the second half of the week. A second, weaker front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters by the end of the week, with modestly freshened breezes expected for the weekend behind the front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2025 Although a passing shower cannot be ruled out in the overnight period, especially in the vicinity of the MTH, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Near-surface northeast to east winds will frequently gust to near 20 knots in the early overnight hours, with gusts becoming less frequent late tonight through the end of the TAF period.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for GMZ042>044- 052>055-072>075.