textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloud cover will continue to gradually increase this evening.

- Small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease across Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated, and will peak during the overnight hours into early Friday morning.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail, but sky coverage will increase throughout the first few hours of the TAF period. CIGs will sit near FL045, but SCT bases will be closer to FL030, so occasional MVFR CIGs are possible. VCSH will remain in the TAFs due to continuing showers nearby, especially near EYW, but shower coverage will near both terminals after 24/00. Amendments may be needed once shower activity is better established. Surface winds will remain easterly to east southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1044 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. However, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits until winds decrease. High pressure across the area will continue to gradually track eastward, and breezes will slacken in response. Some light, spotty showers will wax and wane across the area, and will increase in coverage tonight. Occasional thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but widespread hazardous marine conditions are not expected with this activity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026 The forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours remains rather interesting. We are currently watching an area of disturbed weather over the South-central Gulf early this morning. This is in association with an upper level shortwave trough. This trough is expected to continue moving east southeastward amplifying and strengthening as it does so. The core of the shortwave is expected to rotate through the Keys overnight into early Friday morning. Here is the rundown on how we think this play out: Moisture will continue to increase across the area today, though, most guidance suggests that the shower and thunderstorms that develop today will mostly remain just outside of the Keys coverage area. However, this looks to change in earnest overnight into Friday morning. As this shortwave rotates through, we are expecting increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the Keys forecast area. This activity looks to move in an west to east fashion affecting western portions of the area first before affecting the eastern portions. It should be noted though that there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to the exact track of this shortwave. Latest guidance suggests most of the activity remaining over the marine area, however, any subtle shift can alter the weather the Keys experience overnight into Friday morning. All the ingredients will be on the table for this to potentially be a wet period. We have the instability, trigger (upper level shortwave trough) and the moisture. Any shower and storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Once we get to Friday afternoon, this shortwave trough will be well on its way to the Bahamas allowing the Keys to clear and dry out.

Upper level heights will rise over the weekend into early next week as the aforementioned shortwave trough moves away from the region. This will leave the Keys in northwesterly flow aloft for several days. At the surface, high pressure will remain dominant with a weak east to southeast flow. Therefore, expect warming temperatures with highs in the mid 80s, though, some indications are for it be even warmer than this. Also, anticipate rising dew points and increasing humidity. Nil rain chances are also expected as of now due to dry air lingering.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 74 81 75 83 / 60 50 20 10 Marathon 73 82 75 83 / 50 40 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.