textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended period of wet and windy conditions will develop across the Florida Keys this weekend, and possibly into early next week, as a cold front arrives on Saturday.

- A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Saturday night or Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Uncertainty remains high regarding rain chances for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Current water vapor imagery and CIMSS steering products depict a broad anticyclone settling to the east of the Bahamas and a mid to upper-level trough beginning to deepen over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Ahead of the trough, current surface analysis depicts a cold front extending southwest from a surface low over Ontario through the Ohio Valley and into the Lower MS River Valley. This front will continue to surge towards the southeast over the next 24 hours as the trough deepens across the Eastern CONUS. With the aforementioned ridge becoming situated to our east, deep southeast flow will continue to advect tropical moisture across the Keys. We currently have isolated showers in our surrounding waters being generated by weak speed convergence in the southeasterly low- level flow. As the mid-level trough axis nudges into the Gulf tonight, synoptic scale lift will begin to arrive across our forecast area while the Atlantic ridge becomes dampened. This will promote an increased coverage of showers and storms through the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Our forecast trend of Chance PoPs this afternoon increasing to Likely PoPs by tomorrow seems to be on par with current analysis. The cold front will move southeast through the Gulf tomorrow morning and should be knocking on our doorstep by tomorrow evening. Models suggest the mid-upper level trough will be slower to pass through, so the Florida Keys will remain downstream of troughing tomorrow with winds set to begin increasing by tomorrow evening across the southeastern Gulf waters as the front moves in.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will gradually slacken this afternoon as the Atlantic high weakens. A strong cold front will begin to track southeast through the Gulf tonight through tomorrow morning. It will approach the Florida Keys waters Saturday evening promoting higher chances for showers and storms as well as rapidly freshening northeast breezes to moderate to fresh, occasionally strong, by Saturday night into Sunday. Small craft advisories will likely be required for part or all of the Florida Keys waters by Sunday. Rain chances are forecast to decrease by early next week as the front moves south of the area. However, winds will likely remain elevated behind the front due to a strong pressure gradient.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Isolated showers will pass near the terminals this afternoon as moisture continues to increase. Coverage will be limited, but included VCSH in the TAF. A cold front will begin to track southeast through the Gulf tonight ahead of a positively tilted trough. This will promote increasing rain chances and potential for aviation impacts towards the end of this TAF period. For now, will stick with VCSH after 06Z, but prevailing SHRA may be added in later TAF issuances. Sfc winds will remain from the E around 5-10 kts, decreasing to near 5 kts after 00Z and beginning a slight shift to the NE.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 89 79 87 77 / 30 60 60 90 Marathon 88 80 86 78 / 30 50 50 80

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.