textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across all waters except the Florida Bay as a nocturnal surge sweeps across the Keys tonight.

- Temperatures will remain on the cooler side of normal, but gradually trend warmer through the weekend and into next week.

- Nil rain chances are expected for the next several days as dry air remains entrenched across the Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026 Another dry day passes by for the Keys as environmental conditions continue to shift closer to normal for this time of year. KBYX radar has been free of precipitable echoes all afternoon into this evening with even GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery depicting clear skies over the island chain. Otherwise, some shallow stratus bubble in the Florida Straits while a more potent rope cloud streaming off southeast Florida marking a convergence zone of veering winds. Generally moderate northwesterly breezes persist along the Reef at the moment and are more uniform and a few knots higher than earlier this afternoon. Temperatures are also notably warmer than 24 hours ago with current values in the lower 60s.

Ridging regaining control over the southeast US is the main feature adjusting our sensible weather in the short term. A nocturnal surge tonight is somewhat of a last push influenced by deep layer troughing over the Eastern Seaboard interacting with the high pressure in the Gulf. As the trough slides east, ridging nosing over the Florida Peninsula will veer our winds to the northeast by tomorrow morning adding onto the warming pattern. Gentle breezes will then stabilize to start out the work week. This evening's KKEY 00z sounding was very dry with a calculated PW of 0.42 inches, below the 10th percentile for other 00z soundings on this day, with a low inversion around 935 mb. As a result, near nil PoPs will prevail for a while as dry air is expected to be around for the majority of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 1037 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, however Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds in all waters except the Florida Bay. From synopsis, the relatively cool waters of the Florida Bay as well as the nearshore Bayside/Gulfside waters will cause winds to slacken more appreciably during the afternoons over the next several days. Expect one more decent nocturnal surge to occur Saturday night into Sunday. Thereafter, breezes will wax and wane as an area of high pressure slides into the Mid- Atlantic over the weekend and into early next week. Northwest winds on Saturday will shift around to the north and northeast as the high slides into the eastern half of the U.S. High pressure will then consolidate into the southeast U.S/Northwestern Bahamas and maintain winds more east of north.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026 VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight. Near surface winds will start out of the northwest to north at near 10 knots, increasing briefly overnight with some gusts to 15 to 20 knots and also veering to the north to northeast by tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 60 69 62 70 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 58 68 60 69 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.