textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Very warm and humid conditions are expected through tomorrow, with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees, and lows around 80.
- After another night of lighter winds, breezes will become moderate to fresh out of the west or northwest by Wednesday afternoon.
- Rain and thunder chances will remain slim in most areas for much of the week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026
Hot and humid conditions persist across the Keys. Temperatures are now in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Light and variable breezes will firm up out of the southwest to west overnight as a weak disorganized surface low lumbers eastwards into the Florida Peninsula. This evenings sounding indicated a smidge of low level inhibition that has been sufficient to keep shower activity at bay. Above this is ample CAPE with precipitable water slightly above the 75th percentile for the date. While the inhibtion is expected to weaken some overnight, it will remain. This with the weak flow should generally keep showers at bay. Given the sufficient CAPE and moisture, it is difficult to completely rule out slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Will introduce slight chance for showers and thunderstorms for the first period. Expect overnight lows to range near 80 with dew points staying in the mid 70s.
MARINE
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026
A sloppy low in the eastern Gulf will meander eastward across the Florida Peninsula overnight. Light and variable breezes will gradually transition to southwesterlies overnight, then a moderate to fresh west to northwesterly breeze by Wednesday afternoon. After a weak frontal passage early Thursday, high pressure swinging across the Southeast will take over and gradually clock gentle breezes north then east through the week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. Breezes will be light and variable, becoming southwest to west overnight.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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