textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes will prevail, peaking overnight and lulling during the day. - Above-normal shower and thunder chances will continue today and tonight.

- Rain chances will trend towards near or below normal by early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The past 24 hours proved to be quite wet across the Keys. This was due to the combination of enhanced lower level flow due to a ridge across northern Florida and Gulf and a broad trough advancing steadily westward through the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the broad troughing continues into the mid levels with nebulous flow aloft. In addition, precipitable water is very high at 2.25 inches, above the 90th percentile for the day and CAPE was ample with no inhibition. A 24 hour estimated MRMS rainfall map indicated virtually the entire island chain received measurable precipitation with the Lower Keys receiving the most rainfall, mostly ranging between 1 and 2 inches.

The wet weather pattern will remain across the Keys today into tonight, but possibly with slightly lower expected coverage. The steering currents is expected to be weaker today as the lower level trough advects westward through the Keys. However, precipitable water is expected to remain close to 2 inches with only a small amount drying through the lower levels and inhibition should remain limited. Additionally, CAMS continues to project further rounds of convection spanning at least today into tonight. For this reason, will maintain high chance PoPs, which is above both seasonal norms and all statistical guidance. Highs will remain up near 90 with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will range broadly in the lower 80s and highly dependent on convective influences.

A shift to drier conditions is expected to finally build in late tonight and into this weekend as the lower level trough shoves west of our area, and deep layered Atlantic ridging establishes greater control across our region. Lower to mid level drying should take place with periods of inhibition appearing in forecast soundings. However, CAPE will remain seasonable and quite sufficient to support deeper convection. One period to highlight will be Sunday, where guidance suggests another broad lower level trough, associated with an upper level low in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, will migrate westward across our area. This may lead to a period of marginally higher shower and thunderstorm chances. Otherwise, the surface ridge will remain aligned across northern Florida and Gulf well into next week and maintain winds ranging from gentle to moderate. Expect wind tendency to be lulling during the day and peaking overnight. No trend in temperatures are expected with highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s, and dew points stuck in the mid to upper 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Winds will relax today due to the combination of the usual day time lull and a lower level pressure trough workings it way westward across Florida and the Keys. Expect mostly gentle northeast to easterly breezes today swinging back to easterly tonight. A wet pattern continues and spells of sub VFR conditions will be possible, along with thunderstorms and strong gusty winds. Thereafter, the ridge will remain across northern Florida and keep mainly gentle to moderate easterly breezes. Expect sizable fluctuations in wind speeds, tending lull during the day and peaking overnight. Along with transitioning to a more climatological regime, rain chances should trend towards near or slightly below normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A wet weather pattern will remain across the area for a bit longer. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible, delivering spells of sub VFR conditions and potentially thunderstorms and strong gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will generally be gentle easterlies.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 84 92 84 / 50 40 30 30 Marathon 90 84 90 84 / 40 50 20 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.