textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will increase tonight into Sunday morning ahead of the next weak cold front. Although rain chances are in the forecast ahead of and along the cold front, mainly dry conditions will continue for the next seven days.

- Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds in the Florida Straits tonight. Winds will slacken on Sunday ahead of the cold front.

- A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 Fewer interesting features were present this evening when compared to last night in the Florida Keys. GOES East satellite observations did not observe an approaching mass of low stratus clouds near the Keys waters. The KBYX radar showed stray showers over the coastal waters which were moving away from land. The environment is beginning to warm up. Temperatures across the Keys rose from last night's near 70 to the lower 70s with an accompanied increase in dew points to the mid 60s. The KKEY 00Z sounding sampled an environment of near normal moisture, just below the 50th percentile value of 1.07 inches. Another few features highlighted why showers were struggling to form, weakly backing winds in the lowest 8 kft and a pronounced inversion above the boundary layer. Overall, the dry air and lack of near surface kinematics suggests a mostly clear and nearly rain free night.

The most significant weather overnight will be over the Straits of Florida. A building high pressure system off the Carolina Outer Banks will be sufficient to freshen breezes to moderate to fresh overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds in the Florida Straits. From synopsis, high pressure centered off the Carolina Outer Banks will support moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys. The high will begin to interact with a developing area of low pressure north of the Gulf Coast tonight into Sunday. The low pressure system will nudge a frontal boundary through the Keys Monday evening. A potent surge of northerly breezes is not expected in the wake of this front. Breezes will quickly slacken and veer to the northeast on Tuesday as the next high pressure slides into the eastern Gulf Basin.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Occasional clouds with bases near FL025 are possible near the terminals, but cloud cover is sparse enough to go SKC until sunrise. Near surface winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots and continue veering southeasterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 76 68 78 68 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 75 68 78 69 / 10 10 10 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.