textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong pressure gradient associated with a cold front will support a prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions across the Florida Keys.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters for hazardous winds and seas. These conditions will last through the next several periods.

- Shower and thunder chances will decrease during the early part of the week as a dry air mass moves over the Florida Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 Scattered showers have continued to persist in the distant Straits waters from this morning into this afternoon slowly drifting more southerly as the stalled front crawls south. Temperatures have slightly warmed to the lower to mid 80s and with dew points near 70 it is a really nice afternoon. Windy conditions across the Reef are still being reported as well. For the next few periods, the wind will be the main topic as windy to breezy conditions of Small Craft Advisory thresholds will stick through around Tuesday night before slackening. Dry air is moving into the region therefore PoPs completely drop off late tonight and we are left with near nil or slight chances of rain thorugh Thursday. Late this week, another wind surge is forecast as high pressure builds in. Due to the NE flow it could bring in another round of higher chances of rain by next weekend. Models are still unclear on how high rain chances will be so details will get ironed out a little closer to time. Stay tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper Keys. From synopsis, a cold front that has stalled over the southern waters of the Florida Straits will continue to support fresh to strong breezes. Hazardous winds and seas will continue through tonight, thus a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys waters. Fresh to strong northeasterly breezes will prevail through the first half of the week. Breezes will be able to gradually slacken to moderate to fresh during the middle of the week as the front moves over Cuba. Shower chances will decrease through tonight as a drier air mass moves over the Florida Keys.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Isolated showers will remain south of the island chain through this evening therefore no mention of VCSH at this time. Near surface winds will continue to be northeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.