textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated rain chances will continue through the week and into the weekend.

- Mainly gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through the remainder of the week, though occasional periods of moderate breezes will occur.

UPDATE

Issued at 1005 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The 27/00Z KEY sounding from this evening shows a highly unstable atmospheric profile with SBCAPE values exceeding 5000 J/kg and essentially no inhibition. While moisture had decreased just a touch from the morning sounding earlier in the day, the PWAT value sampled was still right at the daily median of 1.87 inches and is somewhat equally distributed throughout the column to some extent as low and mid RH values are 60% and 69% respectively. However, precipitation coverage was isolated to scattered at best this evening as there is a lack of mesoscale boundaries across the region to support convective initiation. This may change somewhat overnight as recent satellite imagery shows a fair amount of Cuban convection at this moment and there are some early indications that this may produce a northward moving outflow boundary across the Straits tonight. Forecast confidence in this scenario is not particularly high but this is a possibility if low level flow can veer enough as the land breeze develops. While this will be closely monitored throughout the night, hi-res guidance continues to keep the best PoP chances north of the Island Chain in the Gulfside and Bayside water given the persistent east- southeast flow regime. Otherwise, expect overnight lows to be in the low to mid 80s as most locations across the Island Chain missed out on any relief from storms until this point.

MARINE

Issued at 1005 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The western periphery of an Atlantic high is expected to maintain control of the Keys for the next several days. This will promote peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak in the evening through early morning hours and lull in the afternoons. The strongest surge of breezes is anticipated to be overnight where mostly moderate breezes are expected throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters. In addition, the southeasterly flow will also keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions should generally prevail though at least most of the TAF period, though brief flight restrictions could occur at times due to SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, surface winds will be out of the ESE throughout the period with wind speeds of 10-15 kts overnight and decreasing to 5-10 kts on Thursday.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.