textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys. Minor to moderate coastal flooding may return across the Keys heading into the weekend with the approaching new moon.

- Rain chances will remain slightly above normal today with island cloud lines possible. - A drying trend will begin tonight and Thursday, followed by the potential for lower humidity Sunday night or Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Surface through mid level ridging reaches southwestward across the Keys this morning. A robust Atlantic high centered off the Mid Atlantic Coast still stretches westward into the Atlantic States. However, it is being eroded by a mid latitude low swinging into the eastern United States and a deepening low well northeast of the Bahamas. This has resulted in breezes on the ridges southwestern flank to slacken and winds in the Keys have come down to a light to gentle easterly breeze. The environment remains essentially uncapped with unusually high moisture. This, along with the usual nocturnal maxima has supported isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the overnight period. Many island locations were affected with the most recent activity focused in and around the Upper Keys. Surface conditions are relatively warm and humid with temperatures remaining close to 80 and dew points in the mid 70s.

The Atlantic ridge will continue to maintain its presence over the Atlantic states and keep breezes in the Keys light to gentle northeast to easterlies today. This will keep temperatures slightly above normal today with highs expected to push into the mid 80s. Dew points should remain in the mid 70s. Precipitable water is expected to remain rather high at slightly under 2 inches. While low level CAPE will be limited, capping will be nearly non existent. As a result, isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Lastly, the steering flow is expected to become east northeast, opening the door to island cloud line formation. Have nudged up PoPs a bit, pushing chance across all Florida Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Robust surface ridging off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will be eroded on its flanks by a mid latitude trough swinging into the northeastern United States and a developing low well northeast of the Bahamas. As a result, surface winds in the Keys area is expected to be a notch lower than in the past day or so. Expect light to gentle northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters today. No significant changes made to the ongoing marine forecast this cycle.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. There will be a chance for spells of sub VFR conditions due to isolated to scattered showers expected across the area. Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the northeast to east.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.