textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A wetter pattern is in place, and chances for rain and thunder will remain elevated through at least the next couple of days. There is a potential for a couple of strong thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts being the main threat, specifically late this afternoon and evening.

- Breezy to windy conditions may develop as early as Tuesday, and are expected to continue through most of the week. - Moderate drought conditions will persist for the entire island chain, however, beneficial rains will lead to improving conditions next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1015 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Active weather overnight gave way to mostly sunny skies and diminishing shower coverage this morning. Near surface winds are southerly across the Keys. Breezes are moderate to fresh across the reef. Temperatures along the Keys are on track to reach the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. However, the pattern is deceptively quiet. A well defined cold front will make its way into the southeastern Gulf this afternoon while a surface low deepens over the northeastern US. The morning 12Z sounding sampled an environment primed for sustained showers if a source of lift was present. The sampled PWAT was above the 90th percentile for the day, and GOES-East derived PWAT corroborated that observation by deriving an environment of 1.3 to 1.5 inches across the Florida Keys. Winds measured by the sounding also indicated low level veering will begin to develop later this afternoon. When, then, are showers likely to form?

Convective allowing models indicate showers and thunderstorms are most likely to start developing near or shortly after sunset ahead of the cold front. Near surface winds are expected to start clocking around at this point in time while the low level flow remains southerly. Expect to see showers developing in clusters around the Keys with a chance of thunderstorms. Keep an eye on the radar and brace for much needed rainfall.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Although a cold front is not expected to arrive until late tonight, we likely will see some showers and thunderstorms develop out ahead of the main line that will develop along the front. Eventually we do expect the cold front to catch up to this pre- frontal line of convection. There remains a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather today, primarily this afternoon across the Southeast Gulf waters, then overspreading the rest of the area this evening and tonight. The main threat will once again be winds if strong thunderstorms should develop.

In the wake of the front we expect cooler temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions quickly developing. In fact, we could be looking at a prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions as a strong high will fill in behind the front and maintain an enhanced pressure gradient across the area. In addition, it appears that this front will not make a clean sweep and will instead stall near or in the vicinity of the Keys Tuesday through Thursday. This is potentially setting up for a wet, but beneficial, weather pattern for the Florida Keys.

Next upper level trough Thursday evening will help to finally kick out this stalled frontal boundary with drier conditions expected for the next weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Expecting additional showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, mainly across the Southeast Gulf waters ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will also have showers and thunderstorms along its leading edge and a few storms may be strong with much higher winds than our usual springtime convection. The cold front will sweep through with freshening northerly breezes in its wake. Thereafter, a strong high pressure will filter in behind the front and will likely maintain a prolonged period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon at EYW and MTH. Southerly winds this morning will clock around to south and then west ahead of a cold front. Scattered showers could develop as early as 21Z, but are more likely to begin around sunset. There is a high probability these showers will produce lightning, hence the VCTS starting after 01Z. Gusts up to 25 knots are possible. After frontal passage, northerly winds will rapidly freshen and increase the risk of crosswinds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 85 67 77 65 / 30 80 30 30 Marathon 83 69 76 65 / 30 80 40 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.