textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong high pressure over Bermuda will remain stationary into the weekend, supporting an extended period of relatively unremarkable weather. - Moderate to fresh breezes will wax and wane through the weekend, generally peaking during the overnight hours and lulling in the afternoons. - Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 This first Friday night of March looks very similar to yesterday evening as breezy and surprisingly dry conditions continue across the Keys. GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics has a scattered field of stratocu streaming over the island chain and its surrounding waters with one cluster of towering cumulus losing its steam in the eastern Straits. KBYX radar detected a small cluster of showers associated with said convective tower along with a brief thunderstorm. These showers have since fizzled out as they approached the Middle and Upper Keys with no other notable activity ongoing at this time. Moderate to fresh breezes persist along our offshore observation stations with no signs of slowing down. Temperatures along our land areas are currently in the upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s.

Surface ridging nosed over the the southeast US continues to be the main feature driving our sensible weather pattern now and into the weekend. Our moderate easterly breezes continue to pull in upstream tropical moisture making it feel more and more like spring. This evening's KKEY 00z balloon sounding recorded a decent amount of instability with little to no inhibition and yet there has been very little convective activity. This is likely in part to a lack of forcing reinforced by a slightly anticyclonic surface wind field. There is also a sharp discontinuity in winds at 650 mb where easterlies become weakening northwesterlies which could be shearing off the tops of prospective convective towers. That being said, we hold a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight especially as there was a thunderstorm observed earlier this evening. Tomorrow will be more of the same as we wait for the ridge to move out into the western North Atlantic later this weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 1055 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for the Straits of Florida. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in all other coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure is centered over Bermuda with the western periphery of this ridge extending west into Florida and the Gulf. This will continue to promote a prolonged period of moderate to fresh breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend. Winds will be strongest across the Florida Straits and weakest over the cooler Gulf side waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight. While showers at either terminal cannot be ruled out, chances are too low to include in either TAF for now. Near surface winds will continue to be out of the east at 10 to 15 knots and frequent gusts to near 20 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 73 82 73 82 / 10 10 20 20 Marathon 75 83 74 83 / 20 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ052>055- 072>075.