textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Measurable rain chances will remain low through next weekend, at generally 10% or less.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, but we may see heat index values above 105F, particularly along the Upper Keys, this afternoon.

- A shallow pocket of Saharan Air will linger across the area through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 428 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A plethora of residual boundaries moving through our area came to life with mostly shallow showers. However, a few showers over-performed and were able to achieve reaching the status of thunderstorm briefly. Most of the showers stay across open water, but a few select island communities actually managed to get a shower pass through. One such community was Key West! Why are we so excited? Because the shower was just enough to lower the temperature one degree below 85 degree, which would've tied yet another warm low temperature record. After 6 days in a row, we have broken the record streak.

For today, we remain locked under a broad and expansive, but flat ridge that impressively stretches from the Four Corners region, across the Gulf States, and into the central Atlantic. This allowed a shallow pocket of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to enter our region last night. This pocket of relatively drier and more stable air will continue to slowly lurk westward through the day and exit towards this evening. Other than the rash of showers that are developing this morning, rain chances will be less than 10 percent by this afternoon.

As the SAL exits stage left tonight, somewhat better moisture will return. That being said, rain chances will continue to unimpressive at 10 percent or less. Rain chances may tick up slightly as a weak easterly undulation pivots up from the Caribbean Friday night through Saturday evening. Another easterly undulation arrives from near the Bahamas Monday into Tuesday with the potential for better moisture and therefore accumulating rains.

Otherwise, temperatures will remain rather stagnant with day time highs near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. Muggy conditions will persist with daily heat indices reaching or exceeding 105 degrees.

MARINE

Issued at 428 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Isolated showers that developed overnight are slowly dwindling and will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes, will slacken to light to gentle breezes through the overnight and into Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, high pressure across the region will gradually strengthen. This will result in breezes freshening back to gentle to moderate late Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Aside from a brief passing shower, VFR conditions expected today with east to southeast winds gradually slackening through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 84 91 83 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 91 83 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.