textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will wax and wane across the forecast area today and tonight.

- Coastal Flood Statements are out for the Middle and Upper Keys because of a strong northwest swell.

- Breezy conditions expected tomorrow night. Medium to high confidence that breezy to windy weather will last through at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 A messy weather pattern will greet those across the Florida Keys this morning. A frontal boundary is slowly moving across the Keys coastal waters, providing a source of lift for the moisture-rich environment. Last night's KKEY sounding sampled an environmental PWAT above the 90th percentile for the day, which is corroborated by GOES-East derived precipitable water. While moisture and a source of lift are present, the front has lost most of its characteristics. Breezes across the Keys are northeasterly along the reef and in the bayside waters. A clear difference in dew point is not obvious over Southern Florida compared to the Keys. The front is a lingering boundary that will allow showers to wax and wane across the Florida Keys today and tonight. Expect another damp and humid day.

The slow nature of the front does cause a couple of issues. Gale force breezes are present along the Florida Peninsula, which are responsible for the elevated swell in the western waters. Fresh to strong breezes are expected to reach the Florida Keys waters sometime on Thursday, and breezy conditions may start as early as Thursday evening. Drier air will struggle to filter into the Florida Keys. Statistical guidance suggests dew points will stay closer to the upper 60s through Saturday. Numerical model soundings suggest that a dry air mass associated with higher pressure over the eastern United States will take until Sunday to Monday to reach the Keys. After the dry air moves in, there is medium to high confidence that drier, breezy to windy conditions will persist through at least early next week. The trend of persistent blocking patterns continues.

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys. From synopsis, a stalled frontal boundary near the Florida Keys is responsible for the slow moving showers across the Keys coastal waters. Seas will be elevated in the western marine zones due to a northwest swell. While light to gentle breezes will prevail through tonight, the front is forecast to move south of the Keys by tomorrow morning. Dry air and fresh breezes will surge in behind the front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Lingering boundaries in the vicinity of the island chain may allow showers to form near the Keys. There is medium confidence in a cloud line developing near the terminals in the afternoon. VCSH is included to account for this scenario.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 71 82 72 / 40 40 30 20 Marathon 82 71 81 73 / 50 40 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.