textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the Keys Coastal Waters.

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods.

- Uncertainty remains high for the end of the week and into this weekend with rain chances. - A general 1-3" of rainfall and thunderstorms, with locally higher amounts, are possible at most island communities Friday through Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 346 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain active for most of the Florida Keys coastal waters due to fresh east to southeast breezes. High pressure centered south and southwest of Bermuda will gradually flatten late overnight and through the end of the week. This will allow breezes to appreciably slacken through the end of the week. Meanwhile, moisture will remain enhanced across the area such that above normal rain and thunder chances will persist through at least Friday. Thereafter, confidence remains rather low on timing and intensity of any precipitation over the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 346 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of a fast moving shower through the evening and overnight. Breezy east to southeast winds will be slow to ease through the forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 530 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026 Scattered showers have persisted across the coastal waters overnight into the early morning hours for the Florida Keys. While a majority of these showers have been light showers, a few have grown tall enough to shoot off a few lightning strikes before collapsing. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s making for yet again another muggy morning. Across the Reef wind observations are southeasterly at near 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters. As the day progresses, the high that has been assisting with freshening breezes will shift easterly allowing the pressure gradient to weaken resulting in a slight slackening of winds occurring this afternoon into this evening.

Wednesday, the synoptic pattern will change as the ridges continue to shift easterly further into the Atlantic and makes way for troughing to enter the region. The resulting more southerly direction for winds will bring in tropical moisture creating more of a chance for showers. While heavy rain is possible in these showers, we are not mentioned in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook until Friday as a Marginal Risk, though we have been placed under general thunder for Days 1-3 in the Severe Weather Outlook. The shift in pattern and resulting showers and storms probabilities will continue to be closely monitored and adjusted as needed throughout the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 90 81 90 / 30 40 40 50 Marathon 80 87 79 86 / 20 40 40 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031-032-035-042>044-052>055-072>075.