textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended period of wet and windy conditions will develop across the Florida Keys this weekend due to an approaching cold front. Drier conditions may gradually return by the early to middle part of next week, but winds are forecast to remain elevated.

- A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required beginning Saturday night or early Sunday for the Gulf waters, spreading across the remaining waters during the day on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Clusters of showers with an occasional embedded thunderstorm waxed and waned over the waters surrounding the Florida Keys this Saturday morning. At least two tenths of an inch of rainfall was observed at the Key West Naval Air Station, and MRMS-derived rainfall accumulation estimated totals up to an inch over Stock Island. The heaviest showers remained over the gulfside waters. The weather pattern this morning will be a bit more complicated as near surface winds start to turn from southeasterly to easterly. KBYX radar scans this morning detected a mess of outflow boundaries across the waters that may be able to initiate additional showers in areas around the Keys that did not observe heavy rainfall. The wet, unsettled conditions will persist through, at least, the early morning hours. A lull in activity is expected today once the atmosphere stabilizes.

Nighttime microphysics observations from GOES East highlight a strong cold front stretching from the northern Gulf to South Carolina. Numerical models show consensus that this front will reach the northern waters surrounding the Florida Keys tonight. Peak shower chances are expected tonight and Sunday as the front moves across the Keys waters. Breezy to windy conditions are expected tomorrow. Until then, keep an eye on the radar and make any preparations for sustained fresh, occasionally strong, northeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected as early as tonight for portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters while a strong cold front moves south across the Gulf.

From synopsis: a cold frontal system will progress southeastward across the northern Gulf today. Breezes are on track to stay light to gentle northeasterlies before the front reaches the northernmost Gulf waters tonight. Once the cold front begins its passage across the Keys waters, breezes are expected to freshen rapidly amidst squally conditions. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for part of or all the Florida Keys waters tonight into Sunday. Fresh, occasionally strong, northeasterly breezes are expected to persist through the first half of the week. Shower chances will peak tonight and Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both EYW and MTH. However, short lived SHRA or TSRA will be capable of brief periods of MVFR to IFR CIGs and VIS near both terminals. Outside of nearby convection, surface winds will remain light and generally east to southeasterly. Late in the period, expect surface winds to back northeasterly ahead of an approaching cold front.

CLIMATE

On this day in day in 1977, the daily record cold high of 76F was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, on this day in 2023, the daily record cold high temperature of 76F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951.

OF NOTE In 1910, a category 3-4 Hurricane moved north northeast passing about 25 miles west of Key West. A navy tug at the Dry Tortugas reported a minimum pressure of 28.26" with calm lasting 40 minutes in the eye.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 87 75 85 75 / 60 90 80 20 Marathon 86 76 84 76 / 50 90 80 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.