textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions will continue through at least Saturday evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. - A relatively drier pocket of air filtering in will help to keep significant rainfall at bay with only spotty, isolated showers expected through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 Outside of the seemingly neverending breezy conditions, the most notable weather we have seen this evening was a cluster of showers with embedded thunderstorms that crossed the Middle and Upper Keys. At this time, our KBYX radar is detecting the decay of this activity as it moves across the nearshore and offshore waters of the Middle and Lower Keys, tracking northwestward into the Southeast Gulf. This activity likely originated from low level convergence over the water between the Miami area and Andros. The 18Z radiosonde launch from our friends in Miami showed ample instability across the area, and little in the way of inhibition. The 00Z launch this evening at KKEY showed some dry air intrusion, but it was a little higher aloft, and showers were able to thrive.

CIMSS PWAT analysis depicts a pocket of reduced PWATs, around 1.25 inches, filtering in. Considering the upper level convergence depicted on the SPC Upper Level Analysis, chances for pop up showers overnight should remain low. Even though PWATs have been trending downward, there may be enough in the low levels to support one or two showers overnight anywhere across our forecast area. We will go ahead and carry the slight chance of rain, 10 percent.

The tight pressure gradient associated with a healthy area of high pressure over the North Atlantic will continue to linger across the area, and there is no reason for our breezy conditions to lighten up. No changes to the breezy forecast are needed at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, expansive and strong high pressure across the central North Atlantic will continue to dominate the pattern through the weekend. This will continue to promote moderate to fresh easterly breezes, occasionally strong in the Florida Straits. Breezes will tend to peak overnight into the morning hours, and lull in the afternoon. This high will begin to retreat to the east as we head into the start of next week, allowing for breezes to slacken for a couple of days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 VFR conditions prevailing at both island terminals will see occasional observations of MVFR CIGs due to diminishing shower activity in the area. However, reduced categories are not expected to prevail. Very isolated shower activity will continue to pop up through the TAF period, but the low confidence related to location means we will keep the current TAFs free of any showers or thunderstorms. East surface winds near 15 to 20 knots will continue to gust near 20 knots frequently while also occaisional backing to the north northeast. Cross wind concerns are extremely low as the northerly component wont be significant.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 73 82 73 83 / 10 10 20 10 Marathon 74 82 73 82 / 10 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.