textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets will continue through tonight due to higher high tides. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.
- The wet pattern will continue through tonight with highest rainfall totals expected in the Lower Keys. Rain and thunder chances will decrease over the weekend through early next week.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected over the beginning of the TAF period at both terminals due to showers across the area. At the start of the TAF period, showers are mainly in the area between EYW and MTH, so a shift in either direction could bring lower CIGs and VIS. Surface winds will remain out of the east to southeast near 10 knots with gusts near 20 knots, but gusts will become occasional overnight. Any isolated heavier showers could lead to an occasional IFR or LIFR observation, but will likely be unrepresentative of the prevailing weather at either terminal.
MARINE
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf waters. Across Hawk Channel and Bay and Gulfside waters, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease during the late afternoon. Winds will be stronger, and seas will be higher and rougher in and near the showers and thunderstorms that will continue over portions of the western marine zones adjacent to the Lower Keys. Marine conditions are expected improve over the course of this evening and the overnight hours tonight into Saturday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 458 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Ample moisture remains in the area as it continues to flow in from the western Caribbean. For today, we are expecting another day of showers and thunderstorms, though it is on the downward trend from what we experienced yesterday. Models are suggesting the Middle Keys could be more of a target today with flooding rain possible. As the weekend progresses the ridge that has been contributing to higher rain chances will ease off and near normal rain chances will return.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 80 90 80 90 / 40 40 30 20 Marathon 81 88 81 88 / 40 40 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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