textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Isolated showers will clip portions of the Florida Keys through the afternoon. -Temperatures will be unseasonably warm through the rest of the work week, with highs around 80 degrees, and lows in the lower 70s.

-Confidence is increasing for a potentially strong frontal passage around the end of the weekend or early next work week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 Scattered light showers will push through the Florida Keys over the next couple of hours, warranting mention of VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals thorugh 18z Friday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 433 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 A building ridge will continue to channel low level moisture along its periphery. The moisture plume will be mostly oriented across the Straits of Florida but may at times butt up against the island chain today. This may result in a few sprinkles or a brief light shower. Once this plume pivots out of the area, drier air will filter back in and return PoPs to near nil, roughly for the next 48 hours.

By this weekend, the ridge will get shunted eastward by the next approaching upper level trough. This will allow for some low level moisture to bunch up along the southwest periphery and bring back dime PoPs to the island chain as early as Saturday night. Thereafter, a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes region will bring our next cold front late Sunday into early Monday. As well as increasing our rain chances, winds will freshen in its wake. Models are honing on in that this frontal boundary will then stall near or over the Florida Keys. This could lead to a more active than usual weather pattern for the Keys. While confidence has grown on the cold front, what happens post-frontal remains uncertain at this time and will keep PoPs lower than guidance for now.

MARINE

Issued at 1051 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a ridge across the southwestern Atlantic will strengthen, allowing breezes to freshen to gentle to moderate through the end of the week and become more easterly. The exception will be out across the Straits of Florida, where moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will be possible. The next cold front passage is looking to be late Sunday into early Monday, with freshening northerly breezes in the wake.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 72 80 70 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 80 72 81 71 / 20 0 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.