textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes and well-developed seas will support Small Craft Advisories for the Straits of Florida today.

-A mild and mainly dry pattern is expected to continue through Christmas Day with slightly above normal temperatures and seasonable humidity levels.

FORECAST

Surface high pressure across the North Gulf Coast will maintain gentle to moderate breezes for today (Christmas Eve) continuing through tonight. The high will begin to weaken while slowly drifting off to the southeast into the northeastern Gulf on Christmas Day. This will lead to breezes continuing to slacken (becoming light to gentle) through Christmas night. Moisture remains shallow across the area, though, we cannot rule out a few brief quick moving sprinkles or showers today. Therefore, slight chances (10%) remains in the forecast. Most of this activity will only be capable of producing a trace to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall. In addition, a modified continental air mass will remain over the Keys which will help to keep humidity in check for the next several days. Dew points may even dip a bit more over the next 24 hours into the lower to mid 60s.

A progressive pattern remains across the northern tier of the lower 48 with multiple low pressure systems moving from west to east. To the south of this progressive pattern, high pressure will remain the dominant feature across the Southeast U.S., Florida, and the Gulf. Therefore, mainly light to gentle breezes are expected from Friday through the weekend, becoming variable at times. Dry air will remain across the Keys through the weekend, with the exception of Christmas night, where there is a 10% chance for an isolated passing shower.

Looking ahead to the final days of 2025, numerical guidance continues to show indications of a potent front moving through the area. The main takeaway continues to be a cooler regime, dip in humidity, and another period of potentially breezy conditions. However, the magnitude and strength of this cold front is still being ironed out. Stay tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 435 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the Straits of Florida for today. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) until winds decrease is headlined for the SE Gulf waters, Hawk Channel, and the Bayside/Gulfside waters. From synopsis, high pressure across the Southeast U.S. will continue to slowly meander to the northeastern Gulf through Christmas morning. This will continue to promote moderate to fresh breezes. The high will weaken as it continues to slowly drift southeastward through the weekend leading to slackening breezes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the northeast to east.

CLIMATE

In 1876, the high temperature on Christmas Eve reached 88F in Key West for the second day in a row, part of a stretch of four straight days (the 23rd-26th) on which that year still holds the daily record for high temperature. The 88F reading on the 23rd and 24th is the warmest reading ever recorded in the month of December, which is even more amazing considering that on December 1st-6th of 1876 low temperatures were below 50F every day, and on the 2nd a reading of 44F remains tied for the coldest temperature ever recorded in Key West in the month of December. Thus both the warmest and coldest temperatures ever recorded in December both occurred in 1876.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 79 71 79 70 / 10 0 10 10 Marathon 80 71 80 70 / 10 0 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ052>055-072>075.