textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes will occasionally become variable through this afternoon.

- Conditions will be marginally favorable for island cloud line formation near portions of the Florida Keys today. Cloud line development will support a marginal risk for waterspouts.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the holiday weekend. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with seasonably warm and muggy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 625 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Our KBYX radar has been busy during this overnight shift as showers and thunderstorms have spent the majority of the night building across the local waters. Initially, ghost boundaries were able to trigger a few showers with just one or two thunderstorms, but over the past few hours we have seen the amount of activity increase. As we are typing out this discussion, the strongest thunderstorms are located east from the Upper Keys, over the distant Florida Straits across an area of convergence. As we head through the morning, a few of these showers may cross the island chain, but no significant rainfall is excepted. Overnight temperatures were on the warm side as they only dipped into the lower to mid 80s. The exception was Big Pine Key which was able to cool off to 76F!

This pattern of toasty and muggy weather with showers and thunderstorms mixed in will continue through the second half of the week. Ridging anchored over the eastern U.S. will continue to support a light southeasterly flow across our area. This light flow means that cloudline development will be possible during the afternoon hours either over, or adjacent to, the island chain. The only caveat to this is if the area becomes outflow dominant from the widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will interfere with the uniform flow needed to support our cloudline.

For the holiday weekend, guidance continues to favor a little bit of an increase in the chances for showers and thunderstorms due to an increase in moisture. Forecast soundings specifically show an increase in the lower to mid levels, where we have seemed to be lacking. With that being said, there does seem to be a window of opportunity for activity to wane just in time for any nighttime celebrations on Independence Day.

Early next week, the typical summertime pattern of east to southeast flow will encourage seasonable rainfall chances with warm temperatures. A few ensemble members are indicating out heat indices may see an uptick as we approach the middle of the week, but it is way too early to make any meaningful calls about that.

MARINE

Issued at 625 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, generally light east to southeast breezes will become variable at times through Friday. Any active weather over the marine zones will largely be limited to possible afternoon nearshore cloudlines interacting with any boundaries pushing off the South Florida Mainland through the evening hours. High pressure will gradually build back across the Florida Keys coastal waters late in the week. This will support generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes resuming across the Keys marine zones.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with east to southeast surface winds near 5 knots becoming southeast to south. Cross wind concerns are low due to the low magnitude of these winds. A low chance, near 20 percent, of rain exists through the TAF period, but the best chances for showers and thunderstorms near, or over, either terminal will be during the second half of the period. Will keep VCSH for EYW until 12Z due to nocturnal showers.

OF NOTE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY

On this day in 1878, a Tropical Storm passed about 100 miles north of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.77" was recorded along with a peak sustained wind of 36 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 91 83 91 83 / 20 20 10 30 Marathon 89 83 90 83 / 20 20 20 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.