textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected today, highest in the Upper Keys.

- Elevated rain chances will continue through the week and into the weekend.

- Mainly gentle east to southeast breezes today will briefly surge tonight to moderate breezes throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A somewhat similar weather pattern this morning as we saw yesterday. Overnight convection lingered into this morning and since sunrise, has been gradually dwindling. Most of the activity is now confined across the Southeast Gulf waters but additional moisture is moving in from the Bahamas. Otherwise, we continue to have southeast winds thanks to a broad robust ridge across the Atlantic.

Given the decrease in activity across the Lower and Middle Keys, while additional moisture pivots in across the Upper Keys, have made some adjustments to the going forecast. Have lowered rain chances all across the Florida Keys, however, have maintained the "highest" chances across the Upper Keys for today. Otherwise, that's the only change we've made to the forecast for today. Additional moisture should over run the remaining areas this evening and rain chances will increase.

MARINE

Issued at 1055 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are mainly limited to the Southeast Gulf waters this morning with isolated activity across the Straits of Florida. Outside of convection, expect generally gentle to occasional moderate southeast breezes through the afternoon. From synopsis: The western periphery of an Atlantic high is expected to maintain control of the Keys for the next several days. This will promote peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak in the evening through early morning and lull in the afternoons. The strongest surge of breezes is anticipated to be tonight where mostly moderate breezes are expected throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters. In addition, the southeasterly flow will also keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside of any convection. That being said, chances for additional convection this afternoon is low with a slightly better chance at the MTH terminal. Given the low confidence, will transition the VCTS to VCSH for the MTH terminal and take out of EYW for now.

FORECAST

The pattern for the next several days can be summed up with the western periphery of Atlantic ridging remaining over the Keys along with bouts of moisture and embedded subtle upper level shortwaves traversing through. As moisture continues to round the western side of the high, rain chances will remain elevated through the remainder of the week. Overall, expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms to continue for the next several days. In addition, east to southeast breezes will peak in the evenings and overnight and lull in the afternoons.

The interesting time frame continue to look like it will be in the late week/weekend time frame. This is when a stronger shortwave presses through the Keys, especially Friday/Friday night it appears right now. Therefore, late week continues to look like the bigger show as we will have basically all the ingredients lined up for robust convection. We will have the instability, moisture, and lift all lining up at the same time. More simply put, expect an unsettled weather pattern for the foreseeable future which is entirely normal for this time of the year. Average rain chances also peak for the month of September at 35%, which is less than a week away. It is also hard to pinpoint exact timing for convection as basically just expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and even into early next week. In addition, expect daytime highs near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Of course, temperatures may fall into the upper 70s where any showers and storms move over.

TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor 2 areas across the Atlantic Ocean with none of these systems currently posing a threat to the Keys. The area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic has a 70% chance of development through 48 hours and a 70% chance of development through the next 7 days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 83 90 83 / 20 40 50 40 Marathon 90 83 90 83 / 20 40 50 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.