textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Small Craft Should Exercise Caution as winds increase once again later this afternoon and into the early evening.

-Mainly dry conditions expected this afternoon. Rain chances modestly increase by Thursday, continuing through the end of the work week.

-The next, weak front is expected to push through the Keys on Friday, with minimal changes to the seasonably warm conditions expected in its wake.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions will persist at EYW and MTH for the 18Z TAF period. CIGs are possible over the islands, but above MVFR FLs. FEW to SCT cloud cover will continue to wax and wane near the islands, but MVFR coverage remains unlikely. Near surface winds near 10 knots will remain with a period of gusty conditions near sunset. Easterly winds will persist so crosswinds will not be a significant threat.

MARINE

Issued at 1025 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Straits of Florida, as well as all coastal waters for increasing winds. Florida Bay is the exception. No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure extending along the southern end of the Eastern Seaboard into the western North Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes this afternoon. As this high starts to slide into the central North Atlantic this afternoon, breezes will slacken for the second half of the week. A second, weaker front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters by the end of the week, with modestly freshened breezes expected for the weekend behind the front.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 450 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2025 Not too much will change in the short term. High pressure along the southern end of the Eastern Seaboard will keep winds in somewhat of a holding pattern today. Last night's KKEY 00z balloon launch noted a fairly moist atmosphere below an inversion located just below 700 mb. Despite that moist layer near the surface, shallow showers have not been particularly present suggesting that dime PoPs should be sufficient to cover today's forecast. Tonight, numerical guidance continues to indicate a brief surge in winds as the high slides northeast into the western North Atlantic. While it does not seem to have the same intensity as previous days, a Small Craft Advisory may be required for the Deep Gulf and the Straits of Florida tonight depending on exactly how fresh winds become. Winds will quickly slacken and find a southerly component on Thursday, allowing for a day or so of a more mild and moist pattern elevating rain chances for a couple periods.

The exiting high is making way for the next weather system blowing in from the Great Plains and moving over the Ohio River Valley. This deep layer trough will drag its associated cold front into the southeast US just in time for the weekend. Even though its expected to be fairly weak, winds will clock around to the north and dewpoints will fall a few degrees giving some relief to the more recent mild conditions. The pattern changes quickly behind this front however, as another high builds along the east coast and promotes breezy to possibly windy conditions at the start of next week. This is of course an early solution, so stay tuned to see how this forecast evolves over the next few days.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1968, the daily record low temperature of 51F was last recorded in Key West. Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 72 82 73 81 / 20 30 30 20 Marathon 72 80 73 80 / 10 30 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.