textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry conditions expected through the majority of the forecast period.

- Generally east light to gentle breezes will prevail during the work week. Near normal temperatures will increase to above normal highs mid week.

- A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 945 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 Florida Keys locals may have noticed a shift in winds earlier today. A gusty morning gave way to weaker westerlies, which in turn veered to gusty northwest to northerlies. These features are emblematic of a cold front, which passed across the Keys today. In contrast to the prior couple of fronts, this front is rather slight. Gusts at Sand Key early this morning peaked at 22 knots. The air mass behind the front was not as dry or cold compared to early February. The 00Z KKEY sounding sampled an environmental precipitable water very close to the 50th percentile value of 1.07 inches. However, that does not highlight the entire weather pattern. While the lower levels retained a decent amount of moisture, the capping inversion at 8.5 to 10 kft lies below a very deep, very pronounced dry air mass. CIMSS MIMIC PWAT returns just north of the Florida Keys estimated PWAT values closer to 0.6 to 0.7 inches. While the environment will be dry, people on the ground will might not notice the change. Surface winds will veer northeasterly overnight, and dew points are forecast to remain in the mid 60s. While most cold fronts will be able to drop temperatures below the climatological normals, lows across the Keys may not reach these temperatures. Those who enjoy temperate conditions, rejoice!

MARINE

Issued at 945 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 From synopsis, north to northwesterly gentle to moderate breezes will clock around to the northeast to east while a high pressure system sets up over the Carolinas. Light to gentle breezes will prevail through mid week while this high slowly migrates into the western Atlantic. Dry conditions will prevail through the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 945 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH. While patches of clouds with bases of FL008 to FL015 are possible around midnight confidence in MVFR CIGs is very low. Cloud cover will diminish by sunrise. Winds will veer northeasterly before sunrise.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 63 78 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 65 79 69 82 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.