textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Drier conditions will continue through the rest of the work week.

-The next opportunity for showers and even possible thunderstorms is sometime over the Saturday to Sunday timeframe.

-Northerly breezes will gradually clock around to the northeast and slacken heading into the end of the week. Late this weekend, breezes will once again freshen, as the next cold front pushes through the Florida Keys Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1012 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

The atmosphere continues to dry out across the Florida Keys. A deep layer of dry air moved into our CWA during the last 24 hours and mostly cleared the sky of low altitude cloud cover. KBYX radar returns from this evening did not show significant non meteorological features over the Florida Keys waters. Nighttime microphysics observations from GOES East highlighted sparse cumulus clouds over the Straits amidst high altitude cirrus from convection near the Yucatan peninsula. Temperatures along the island chain dropped into the upper 60s to near 70, and are on track to reach lows in the mid to upper 60s. Northeasterly winds along the reef are consistently near 10 knots and unlikely to change dramatically over the next 24 hours. These observations mirror conditions sampled by the 00Z KKEY sounding. The sampled PWAT tonight matched the 10th percentile value for the day, and a very pronounced inversion was present just above the boundary layer. Sampled winds were also backing with height in the lower layers, so little to no convection will be able to break through this dry layer. The greatest concern tonight will be when holes form in the cirrus deck to view the Geminid meteor shower. Otherwise, there are no indications an update to the forecast package is necessary.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for both EYW and MTH through the 00Z TAF period. Near nil rain chances will continue. Few to scattered cloud layers in the FL020 to FL035 range will be able to form. Near surface breezes will slowly veer from north northeasterly to east northeasterly tomorrow. Winds will remain less than or near 10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, as high pressure drifts eastward over the next several days and eventually into the western North Atlantic, winds will clock around to the north to northeast, then eventually northeast to east. The next frontal boundary is progged to push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Sunday night, with fresh to strong northeasterly breezes expected in the wake of the frontal passage for early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025 What a difference twenty-four hours make. A cold front pushed through the Florida Keys overnight. While there was not much change in terms of temperatures in the wake of the front, available surface observations highlight dewpoints hovering near 60F at this late morning hour. GOES-16 visibile satellite imagery is depicting only few to scattered cloud cover dotting the Florida Keys marine zones, with both plan view total precipitable water product and vertical moisture profile derived from the 12z morning sounding at KEY highlighting substantial dry, continental moisture advection to the Keys. The forecast calls for near-nil rain chances this afternoon, with temperatures likely already peaking for daytime highs in the mid 70s. No changes required to the inherited overnight forecast package.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 68 79 71 80 / 0 0 10 30 Marathon 68 78 72 80 / 0 0 10 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.