textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, raising the risk for heat-related illnesses for the next several days. - Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes expected through the evening, especially off the Upper Keys. - Rain and thunder chances will remain slim through the first half of the weekend.

- Breezy conditions are possible by early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain west to northwest through the overnight before shifting to the northwest to north towards daybreak Friday. Drier air continues to infiltrate the Keys resulting in near nil rain chances especially after dusk through the overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 455 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026 The overnight started off quiet but a weak frontal boundary has been slowly lurking closer to the Keys. This along with ample moisture, kickstarted new showers and even a few thunderstorms. Most of this activity is out across the Straits of Florida but some ongoing showers remain across the Upper Keys this morning. Meanwhile, southwest winds through the majority of the night has kept temperatures in the lower 80s. On top of this, dew points have held in the lower to mid 70s, keeping conditions quite muggy.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to slowly push south and southeast through the day. Ample moisture will remain trapped ahead of this boundary and additional showers will be possible, especially in the Upper Keys. In addition, this feature will interact with a high pressure across the Atlantic, allowing for another brief wind surge in the afternoon. This will result in freshening breezes across the Florida Bay, Upper Keys, and easternmost waters of our CWA.

We are not expecting any real air mass changes once this boundary finally passes through. Dew points will briefly fall back into the upper 60s to lower 70s late tonight through Friday night before returning to the lower to mid 70s for this weekend. This combined with highs remaining in the upper 80s to even lower 90s, will elevate the risk for heat-related illnesses through the upcoming weekend. Remember to take frequent breaks in the shade and drink plenty of water if you plan on being outdoors for extended periods of time.

Relatively drier air will move in behind this weak front this afternoon through Friday decreasing rain chances briefly. By late Friday night, the front will lift back north as a warm front and lift the moisture back across the Keys. This will result in episodic periods of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for the weekend and into early next week. Thereafter, a new high pressure will move off the Eastern Seaboard and out across the Atlantic, promoting more of an easterly flow. Pockets of dry air will be embedded within the flow but generally expect rain chances to hold above normal.

MARINE

Issued at 1050 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds in the Florida Bay, eastern Hawk Channel, and the eastern Straits of Florida. From synopsis, a weak frontal boundary stretching across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters along with a well- defined high pressure system over the North Atlantic will interact to support a brief wind surge over the Florida Bay and far eastern waters this afternoon through this evening. A waning pressure pattern will support generally slackening breezes by late Thursday. High pressure developing over the Southeast will slide into the western North Atlantic over the weekend through Monday night. The location of this feature will support freshening easterly breezes by early next week.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.