textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Temperatures will be warmer than normal through the weekend, with highs near 80 degrees, and lows in the lower 70s.

-Humidity will also remain well above normal due to the east to southeast winds.

-Confidence is increasing for a potentially strong frontal passage around the end of the weekend into early next week.

-A secondary front is on the horizon for mid-week next week, with the potential for thunderstorms ahead of the frontal passage.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through 18z Saturday afternoon, with east to southeast surface winds near 10 knots, occasionally gusting to 17 to 20 knots. Passing nocturnal showers cannot be ruled out overnight in the vicinity of EYW and MTH, but chances are too low to include mention of possible impacts to the terminals at this time. This will be reevaluated later this evening in advance of the 00z TAF issuance.

MARINE

Issued at 1024 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Straits of Florida, with east to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. From synopsis, a ridge across the southwestern Atlantic will maintain east to southeast gentle to moderate breezes through Saturday. The exception will be across the Straits of Florida, where moderate to occasionally fresh breezes can be expected. A lull in winds will occur on Sunday ahead of the next cold frontal passage, which will push through late Sunday into early Monday. Breezes will become northerly and freshen in its wake.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 441 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026 After a somewhat wet start to the overnight, showers have fizzled out as a pocket of drier air is pivoting through this morning. This moisture and dry air couplet is pivoting around a low level ridge parked across the central and southwestern Atlantic. This ridge is also maintaining an east to southeast wind with speeds generally around 10 to 15 mph across the island chain and 10 to 15 knots across the surrounding nearshore waters. Out across the Straits of Florida, slightly stronger winds are present. This wind direction is keeping us quite mild and muggy with temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points hovering right around 70 degrees.

For today, the aforementioned pocket of dry air will keep rain at bay. That being said, there is another pocket of low level moisture east of the Bahamas will push through this evening and overnight. This will bring our next shot at some light scattered showers. Thereafter, multiple spokes of moisture will move through keeping at least slight chances of showers through the weekend.

Meanwhile, a cold front currently extends from the ArkLaTex into the Rio Grande Valley. This front will slowly enter the western Gulf Basin by late this evening. It will take some time but this front will traverse the entire Gulf and sweep through the Keys late Sunday into early Monday. In addition to slightly higher rain chances, fresh to occasionally strong winds will accompany on the back side of the front.

The burst in winds will be relatively short-lived, however, the front will have lost most if not all it's forward momentum. This will allow the front to stall over and near the Florida Keys for the first half of the new work week. Rain chances will be elevated simply because of the residual frontal boundary and moisture. By Wednesday, a second upper level trough will move into the eastern half of the U.S. At the base of this trough, a shortwave will eject out and ahead of the trough. This could interact with this lingering boundary. This may be enough to spark off a few thunderstorms. This threat for thunderstorms will persist towards the end of the week as the main through barrel through. There is lower confidence on this next system given how ftonight.ar out it is and the timing of the trough. For now it will bear worth watching.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.