textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions will continue across the Florida Keys for the next several days. - Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes expected through the early overnight period, especially off the Upper Keys. - Rain and thunder chances will remain slim through the weekend.

- Breezy conditions are possible by early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026 A broken cloud line has supported scattered showers in the vicinity of the terminals, mainly MTH. This activity will decay over the next hour or two, with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter through the remainder of the TAF period. Near-surface winds will gust to near 20 knots at times through around 03z, with gusts diminishing and becoming less frequent late in the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1018 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026 The atmosphere over the Florida Keys yesterday and this morning provides a good example for why the tropical environment can be very frustrating to forecast. Last night's sounding sampled an environmental PWAT above the 75th percentile, and GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water estimates the environmental PWAT may have risen. Little to no inhibition is present to prevent shower development across the Keys, yet the most robust showers developed along a weak wind convergence boundary shortly after midnight north of the Keys. Once that area of convergence dissipated, so did the showers. All weather features point to yet another hot and muggy day for the Florida Keys.

There are a couple of features of interest. A weak frontal boundary stalled over central Florida over the past few days. That system would be responsible for the westerlies seen across the Keys. The environment is also primed for heavy showers over South Florida, which indicates a release of heat. Finally, the pressure gradient is weak over the Florida Keys. All these features together point to a local scale phenomena, a wind surge along the south of the Florida Peninsula. There is high confidence that breezes will freshen rapidly this afternoon with the strongest winds located south of the Upper Keys. Breezes are on track to remain elevated through Thursday. By Friday, few frontal features are expected to remain over the Florida Peninsula. Variable winds are likely before the end of the week.

While winds are forecast to be rather dynamic, temperatures are unlikely to drop below climatological norms through the weekend. Low level moisture is expected to remain elevated, though statistical models suggest we might see a brief reprieve from 70s dew points on Friday. Near surface winds are expected to keep funneling moisture-laden air across the Keys over the weekend and into next week. More notably, statistical models are suggesting possible breezy conditions starting next week. Deep layer ridging aloft and a strong Atlantic high would be enough to support moderate to fresh breezes. These features are still a couple days out, so nothing is certain at this time. Check back in a bit for more up to date information.

MARINE

Issued at 1018 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds in the Florida Keys marine zones south and east of the Upper Keys, including eastern Hawk Channel and the eastern Straits of Florida. From synopsis, A developing area of low pressure along a frontal boundary in the eastern Gulf, a well-defined high pressure system over the north Atlantic, and daytime heating over South Florida will interact to support a wind surge over the Keys marine zones this afternoon and evening. A waning pressure pattern will support slackening breezes by late Thursday. High pressure developing over the Southeast will slide into the western North Atlantic over the weekend through early next week, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.