textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal rain chances are expected through Monday.

- Gentle to moderate easterly breezes are expected over the next few days. - Rain chances will trend upward beginning Tuesday or Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A broad surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretching westward across Florida and the southeastern United States is producing gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys early this morning. Aloft, sharp ridging stretches north northeastward out of Central America into the southeastern United States. This has resulted in considerable drying through much of the troposphere. Last evenings sounding indicated a tiny amount of CAPE with precipitable water of 1.49 inches, a little above the 25th percentile. A few clusters of showers have been able to develop early this morning, with one cluster harassing the Upper Keys. Temperatures are near normal with dew points rebounding into the mid 70s.

Over the next few days the surface ridge will stretch out into the Atlantic as a mid latitude trough pushes off the northeast Atlantic Coast. Usually winds will trend downwards, but they may be bolstered slightly by weak troughing moving westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. While mid through upper level ridging will flatten out some and migrate westward, considerable dry air and good mid level heights will remain, keeping rain chances slight. Temperatures will range near normal with dew points remaining in the mid 70s.

The weather is expected to transition to a wetter pattern heading into mid week. The upper level ridge will be shoved westward into Mexico as troughing develops over the central and eastern Gulf of America. Meanwhile, a stronger lower level trough will advance westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Consequently, the upper levels will moisten with falling heights, while the lower levels moisten and turn slightly cyclonic. This will likely result in sharply increasing shower and thunder chances in the mid week time frame. Uncertainty remains quite high as the upper levels are complicated and its interaction with the lower level trough will be important to the overall effects on our region. For the time being, will maintain the upward trend in PoPs, becoming likely by Thursday. The more veered flow will likely push dew points up into the mid to upper 70s with temperatures edging upwards to slightly above normal.

MARINE

Issued at 1218 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Atlantic ridging stretching westward along the Gulf Coast and weak troughing anchored across the Bahamas are maintaining moderate mostly easterly breezes across Keys waters. Over the next few days the ridge will remain stable while broad troughing moves westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This will keep easterly breezes in the gentle to moderate range. Heading towards mid week, the Atlantic ridge will be reinforced by another high moving off the Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, stronger troughing will move through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding wind speeds, direction, and convective activity. It currently looks like breezes will shift southeasterly while moisture and confluence trends upwards. A wetter pattern is becoming increasingly likely for the far range of the marine forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the east.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.