textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Strong northerly breezes will relax quite a bit this afternoon as high pressure builds across Florida. A Small Craft Advisory remains up for all Keys waters and will be retained through the afternoon for portions of Keys waters for residual seas.

-The cold air mass behind the front along with a reinforcing cold front will keep temperatures well below normal through mid week. Some slight moderation is expected through the back half of the work week.

-Probabilities are increasing for higher rain chances through the later portion of the work week due to surface troughing developing across the eastern Florida Straits.

-Probabilities are also increasing for a significant chilly wind surge this weekend as another powerful cold front is expected to race southward through the area. Portions of the Upper Keys may see wind chills in the 30's.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026 VFR conditions prevail at both EYW and MTH. North to northeasterly breezes will slacken during the TAF period, and gusts will drop out of the TAF after sunset. Occasional gusts are still likely, and northerly crosswinds will continue through the night. CIGs will remain unlikely, though clouds below FL020 are possible.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026 The surface high responsible for the ongoing wind surge will build eastward along the Gulf Coast, across Florida and out into the adjacent Atlantic today into tonight. This along with day time heating will relax the gradient and winds will moderate considerably. Continued cool conditions are expected with day time highs remaining in the 60s with dew points holding in the 40s. Cloud cover will continue to diminish and rain chances will be nil.

Around mid week, a shortwave will swing through the mid latitude trough anchored over the eastern United States. This will help to push a reinforcing cold front down across our area. In addition, winds will be held roughly northerly allowing for periodic nocturnal wind surges emanating off of South Florida. The continuing prevailing northerlies will result in very slow moderation. Expect highs to remain in the 60s and lows in the 50s through much of the week.

Uncertainty begins to ramp up after mid week as guidance indicates the previously mentioned shortwave will contribute to an amplifying surface trough along the old frontal boundary splayed the Bahamas. The specifics regarding this troughs development will be a determining factor for essentially all forecast variables in the Keys. While the trough is not expected to be strong, it may be enough to hold winds stronger and backed northerly across the Keys. The degree of temperature and moisture moderation will be dependent on how incoming streamlines evolve. It is possible that highs and lows will push up above 70 and 60, respectively, given a more maritime flow. Rain potential and cloud cover will also tick upwards through this period due to increasing lower level lift. Interestingly, considerable warm and dry mid levels, along with relatively lacking surface dew points, appear to keep thunder chances very low. This is despite the jet entrance region swinging across South Florida and the Keys late Wednesday.

Another southern stream shortwave will swing through a sharpening mid latitude trough late in the week. In addition to surface troughing developing in the northeast Gulf and off the Carolina Coast, the lingering surface trough in the Straits will respond with some GFS solutions pinching off a surface low. Yet again, all local forecast variables such as temperature, dew point, sky cover, and rain chances will be highly dependent on the additional evolution of this trough/low. Despite the high amount of uncertainty regarding this surface trough, confidence is increasing that an associated powerful cold front will race southward across Florida and the Keys on Saturday as the surface low's/troughs lift out with the departing shortwave. This powerful reinforcing cold front may drive temperatures down into the 40s. Portions of the Upper Keys may see wind chills in the 30s due to the chilly air pouring in on strong northerlies. Stay tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 1015 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026 Strong northerly breezes will relax this afternoon as high pressure builds across the Florida Peninsula. Small Craft Advisories will be pared back for seas. Over the following couple of days, expect periodic wind surges, favoring the overnight and early morning hours due to land breeze formation and a weak reinforcing cold front. For the latter portion of the work week, a high cell will build eastward off the southeastern United States and into the Atlantic. Local breezes usually respond by trending down and slowly veering east northeasterly. However, guidance has been increasingly consistent with the amplification of an inverted trough across the eastern Florida Straits. Should this occur, winds will be both stronger and held back northerly than normal.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1905, the daily record low temperature of 44F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1873

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 68 59 67 56 / 0 0 10 0 Marathon 68 58 67 55 / 0 0 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.