textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Fresh generally north breezes will slowly slacken today following yesterday morning's cold front.

-Rain chances near nil expected through the end of the week. -Coldest air of the season so far has arrived! Overnight lows expected to fall into the upper 40s to near 50 degrees in the Upper Keys and mid to upper 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys.

-A slow moderating trend is expected to begin on Friday with temperatures rebounding into the 70s during the day with overnight lows in the 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 150 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. Winds will be generally just west of north at 10 to 15 knots with occasional higher gusts and gradually decreasing through the evening. An overnight wind surge may occur nudging winds to the north to northeast and up a few knots, but will likely slacken following sunrise.

MORNING UPDATE

Issued at 1055 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 A burst of winter is here in the Keys this morning! After yesterday morning's frontal passage, temperatures have been gradually falling into today. Currently, temperatures range from the mid 50s at the Upper Keys to near 60 in the Lower Keys. This is mostly in part to the moderate to fresh northerly breezes draining off of mainland Florida advecting cooler air into our area. Observation stations along the Reef note that winds have slackened a touch since last night's nocturnal surge, but are still blowing enough for Small Craft to Exercise Caution. Meanwhile, KBYX is free of precipitable echoes despite GOES-19 visible imagery depicting a field of stratocumulus painted over the western half of our waters.

Our postfrontal pattern continues as high pressure establishes itself in the western Gulf off the coast of Texas today. As this surface high continue to shift east, our northerly breezes will gradually slacken over the next few days. That being said, another nocturnal surge will be possible early tomorrow morning especially with temperatures still leaning on the cooler side. This morning's KKEY sounding is about as dry season as it gets down here with a PW of 0.42 inches, single digit surface CAPE, backing wind profile, and a potent inversion at around 880 mb with dry modified continental air aloft. Needless to say, PoPs are to remain near nil for the next few days. Another round of cooler temperatures is on tap for tomorrow morning with possibly some lows hitting the 45 to 50 range in the Upper Keys while the rest of the island chain claws as far down the mid 50s. Conditions will mild out moving into the weekend so enjoy it (or don't) while it lasts!

FORECAST

In the wake of the front yesterday, breezy conditions are expected to continue early this morning. High pressure over southeast Texas this morning will continue moving to the east to southeast throughout the week while slowly weakening. Due to the slow movement of the high, the northwest to north flow will linger into New Years Day/Thursday night before breezes start to shift to the northeast. Even though breezes slacken a little bit today, a subtler wind surge is anticipated tonight into New Years Day due to the mainland nocturnal land breeze. As we approach the weekend, the high will move directly overhead which will result in a period of light to variable breezes. In addition, the coldest temperatures are expected to occur tonight just in time to ring in 2026! Overnight lows into New Years Day morning are expected to be in the upper 40s for the Upper Keys and mid to upper 50s for the Middle and Lower Keys. Temperatures will start to slowly rebound beginning Friday with highs getting back towards 70 degrees and overnight lows back into the 60s. Over the weekend, temperatures will be back to near normal which is highs in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys through the period leading to nil rain chances through Saturday.

Another potentially reinforcing/weak front may press through the Keys during the second half of the weekend into early next week. However, the timing, intensity, and if this front will even push through remains to be seen. Stay tuned!

MARINE

Issued at 1055 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, but Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in all waters until winds decrease. From synopsis, mainly fresh northwest to north breezes will slacken slowly through the day as high pressure moves east to southeast into the eastern Gulf. Another nocturnal wind surge is expected overnight into tomorrow morning, but once the high moves overhead towards the end of the week/weekend breezes become light and variable.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 58 68 61 71 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 54 66 58 70 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.