textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light southeasterly breezes may become variable at times this afternoon before resuming an east to southeasterly direction tonight.

- Conditions will be favorable for island cloud line formation near portions of the Florida Keys this afternoon. Any developing cloud line will support a marginal risk for waterspouts.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the holiday weekend. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with seasonably warm and muggy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1017 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Isolated showers with an occasional thunderstorm continue to pulse across the waters of the Florida Keys. The morning hours were less active than yesterday's burst of activity, but that does not mean the environment this afternoon will be quiet. Southeasterly surface winds will continue to bring moisture-laden air across the Keys, so dew points are not expected to decrease. Plus, local weather conditions have not changed significantly from yesterday. Even though the morning 12Z KKEY sounding sampled a drier layer below 800 mb, satellite observations show an airmass with an estimated PWAT over 2 inches moving over the Florida Keys. While the dry air may keep showers at bay for a moment, another cloud line day is likely across the Keys. Even with a few drier layers over the Florida Keys waters, the sampled environmental PWAT was above the 75th percentile for the day. Thus, there is no need to make changes to the forecast at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, generally light east to southeast breezes will become variable at times across the Keys waters. Breezes will lull during the afternoon and peak overnight. Any active weather over the marine zones will largely be limited to possible afternoon nearshore cloudlines interacting with any boundaries pushing off the South Florida Mainland through the evening hours. High pressure will gradually build back across the Florida Keys coastal waters over the weekend. This will support generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes resuming across the Keys marine zones.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1017 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH amidst east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots. Winds may become variable at times. Showers will continue to pulse over the nearby waters before afternoon. Cloud line convection may develop late this afternoon, therefore VCSH is introduced after local noon.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Of note, we know all too well that most of the interest in the forecast is between today and tomorrow night. Current satellite derived PWAT shows an area of concentrated moisture near Andros, and this has been coinciding with an uptick in convection well to our east. This is important as it points to a slight uptick in rain and thunderstorm chances tonight through tomorrow morning and afternoon, but there still looks like there will be a window of opportunity for rain-free conditions for holiday celebrations in the evening.

After festivities wind down this weekend, the most notable feature in our extended forecast is an area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL), or Saharan dust, encroaching on our area. It is still a few days out, but this would result in a period of below normal rain chances. There is some suggestion that heat index values ramp up by Monday and Tuesday, but we would need a substantial push of low level moisture to make that happen. For now, we'll get through the weekend while keeping out eyes on the evolution of this pattern.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2020, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 91 83 90 83 / 20 30 20 20 Marathon 90 83 89 83 / 20 30 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.