textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Warmer than usual temperatures and light to gentle breezes through the weekend. Expect rising dew points through Sunday.

-A potent cold front is expected to race through the Florida Keys late Monday. Winds will rapidly shift northerly and sustained strong to near gale breezes are possible. -The cold air mass behind the front, and a reinforcing front will keep temperatures below normal for most of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH. Mostly sunny skies are expected through this evening with more clouds moving in overnight, though not expecting any below VFR ceilings at this time. Near surface winds are easterly at 5 to 10 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Slow moderation continues across the Keys this morning. Temperatures are now near 70 with dew point depressions of only a degree or two. A shallow ridge across Florida is maintaining light to gentle and broadly easterly breezes. Isolated to scattered moderate showers persist along a South Florida convergence boundary, and have recently started to poke across the Upper Keys into the Florida Bay.

The combination of ongoing moderation, a firming up ridge across Florida, and a deepening surface trough in the western Gulf will result in winds strengthening slightly out of the east to southeast. Expect relatively warm and humid conditions to persist through the remainder of the weekend. Highs and lows will be around 5 degrees above normal with dew points climbing into the lower 70s.

The previously mentioned low will rapidly intensify late this weekend and early next week as it tracks northeastward and merging with a Carolina coastal low. The tail end of an associated prefrontal trough will barely scrape across South Florida and the Keys. While boundary layer moisture will be ample, forcing is expected to be weak. As a result, will maintain mention of only slight chance for showers. This will be followed by a vigorous cold front passage .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

&&late Monday and Monday night, driven by a 1040 to 1045 high cell advancing southwards down the Plains. Expect local breezes to strengthen considerably, becoming strong with possibly near gale force. Winds are expected to relax considerably on Tuesday as the high pulls across Florida. However, a reinforcing front is expected late Wednesday night into early Thursday. This persistent cold air advection pattern will result several days with dew points in the 40s and temperatures falling to around 10 degrees below normal.

MARINE

Issued at 1048 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes are expected to strengthen slightly and veer through the weekend as a ridge becomes better established across Florida. A strong cold front is expected to race southeastward across the Gulf Sunday night and through Keys waters Monday and Monday night. Winds will freshen considerably behind the front. Near gale force winds are possible Monday Night into Tuesday. Winds relax substantially on Tuesday as high pressure builds southeastward through the southeast and across Florida.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.