textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will only reach 10% over the next several days.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, but Wednesday and Thursday may see heat index values above 105F, particularly along the Upper Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1015 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The 00z evening sounding at KEY certainly sampled a modified Saharan Air Layer (SAL), depicted by substantial dry air in the 800-600 mb isobaric layer. The chaotic low-level boundary layer wind profile, coupled with dry air, continues to limit any cloud cover across the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore marine zones, let alone any shower activity. Given this, coupled with a similar dry airmass upstream extending from Cuba northeastward to the Cay Sal Bank, elected to remove measurable rain chances out of the first period altogether. Otherwise, a persistence forecast seems justified, with no further changes required for this late evening update package.

MARINE

Issued at 1015 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a weak high pressure system in the central North Atlantic will support light to gentle breezes persisting through Wednesday across the Florida Keys coastal waters. The high will begin to strengthen Wednesday night, supporting slightly freshened breezes through the end of the work week. As a weak frontal boundary approaches the Florida Peninsula, the high will once again weaken, supporting a return to light to gentle breezes for the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 00z Wednesday evening, along with near-nil rain chances. Near-surface winds out of the southeast to south will becoming light and variable at times Wednesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 82 91 82 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 88 82 88 82 / 0 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.