textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate southeasterlies will prevail during the morning hours and into Thursday night.

- Periods of elevated shower and thunder chances will continue through the end of the work week.

- Rain chances will return to near normal by the weekend, and will continue through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Wet, pop up thunderstorm weather continues across this afternoon across the Florida Keys. Thunderstorms were able to develop near Key West with pulses across the southern Florida Straits. The morning 12Z KKEY sounding sampled an environmental PWAT over two inches with a dry adiabatic surface layer. Near surface winds were almost unidirectional. Sufficient CAPE is present to maintain sporadic thunderstorms throughout the afternoon, and satellite observations do not show a source of drier air nearby. Meanwhile, a broad cyclonic pattern northeast of the Bahamas continues to provide weak dynamical support for showers across the region. expect the current pattern to last through sunset. Deep tropical moisture remains over the Keys while divergence aloft is supported by weak cyclonic flow in the upper atmosphere and lack of inhibition near the surface. The 60 percent rainfall chances appears apt for the afternoon. Keep an eye on the radar for any nearby thunderstorms!

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge balled up off the mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward through northern Florida and along the Gulf coast. This has allowed a relatively tighter pressure gradient to shift into our area and correspondingly moderate easterly breezes. These moderate easterlies will surge and lull through the remainder of the week and into next week, often lulling substantially during the day and peaking in the overnight hours. While cautions cannot be ruled out the entire forecast, they do not appear likely at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Fast moving scattered showers and thunderstorms will wax and wane near both EYW and MTH terminals through the afternoon. While there may be occasional periods of inactivity, TSRA can form in under 30 minutes near one of the islands. VCSH will be maintained in the TAFs due to the rapidly developing showers. Expect east to southeast near surface winds near 10 knots away from showers, with gusty conditions and sub VFR VIS and CIGs possible in VCSH or TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Little change is expected in the synoptic setup through the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, broad lower level troughing will lumber its way westward across the Bahamas and northern Caribbean Sea and through our area. There is no reason to shift from the advertised above normal rain and thunder chances. Expect gentle to moderate easterlies to generally peak during the overnight hours and lull during the day. No trend in temperatures are anticipated with highs remaining near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s.

Heading into this weekend and persisting into next week, some drying will take place through the lower levels. The lower levels will become better dominated by the Atlantic ridge to our north and mid to upper level ridging should be able to expand westward across Florida. These factors should allow shower and thunder chances to slip back towards normal. Gentle to moderate breezes will continue to peak and lull as in prior days and no trend in temperatures or surface moisture is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40 Marathon 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.