textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, raising the risk for heat-related illnesses this weekend. - Rain and thunder chances will remain slim through the first half of the weekend.

- Breezy conditions are possible by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1026 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026 The southern stream features a trough-ridge-trough triplet, with the latter upper-level trough axis very near the Keys. The lower and mid-level GOES water vapor channels highlight intense subsidence on the back side of the trough axis, corroborated by the dearth of moisture sampled by the 12Z KKEY RAOB above 830 mb. Below the inversion, shallow northwesterlies suggest the Keys are post frontal and the dewpoints in the upper 60s are indeed rather rare for mid-May in the Florida Keys. Surface winds and low-level steering should become variable this afternoon suggesting congealing cumulus along the island chain. However, even with modified SFC parcels (92F), the CIN associated with the stout inversion will limit vertical development to 'french toast' thickness, 'biscuits' at best. The forecast calls for nil rain chances and highs near 90. We will be watching RH on the bigger islands with some locations expected to fall into the lower 40s during peak heating, barring any dewpoint crashes.

MARINE

Issued at 1026 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026 Light to gentle breezes will prevail this afternoon through Saturday. High pressure developing over the Southeast will take root across the western North Atlantic over the weekend. As a result, moderate to fresh easterly breezes will peak and lull across the Florida Keys Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026 VFR and light breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the evening. Initially variable breezes will turn to the esat-southeast overnight.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.