textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light and variable winds will resume an east to southeasterly direction tonight.

- Conditions will be favorable for island cloud line formation near portions of the Florida Keys early this evening. Any developing cloud line will support a marginal risk for waterspouts.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the holiday weekend. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with seasonably warm and muggy conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Shower coverage was relatively sparse across the Florida Keys waters this morning. Patchy cloud line activity began to develop around noon near the Lower Keys northwest of Big Pine Key. Breezes have been light to gentle southeasterlies, which may explain why cloud line convection has struggled to form. Tonight's concerns for convection are likely to stem from outflow boundaries that move offshore of South Florida. Thus, no watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, High pressure will gradually build back across the Florida Keys coastal waters over the weekend. This will support generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes resuming across the Keys marine zones.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A patchy cloud line was able to develop between EYW and MTH during the early afternoon hours. East to southeasterly winds between 5 and 10 knots may limit cloud line development for the early part of the TAF period. MVFR to IFR CIGs are possible if the winds slacken and showers are able to pulse near one of the terminals later this afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals outside of showers.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 530 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026 Of note, we know all too well that most of the interest in the forecast is between today and tomorrow night. Current satellite derived PWAT shows an area of concentrated moisture near Andros, and this has been coinciding with an uptick in convection well to our east. This is important as it points to a slight uptick in rain and thunderstorm chances tonight through tomorrow morning and afternoon, but there still looks like there will be a window of opportunity for rain-free conditions for holiday celebrations in the evening.

After festivities wind down this weekend, the most notable feature in our extended forecast is an area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL), or Saharan dust, encroaching on our area. It is still a few days out, but this would result in a period of below normal rain chances. There is some suggestion that heat index values ramp up by Monday and Tuesday, but we would need a substantial push of low level moisture to make that happen. For now, we'll get through the weekend while keeping out eyes on the evolution of this pattern.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2020, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records in Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 90 83 90 / 30 20 20 20 Marathon 83 89 83 89 / 30 30 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.