textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will decrease overnight, with light to gentle breezes expected over the weekend.

- Mainly dry conditions along with near-normal temperatures expected through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 935 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

After a number of days of fresh northerlies due to an earlier cold front passage, winds are finally trending downwards. This is a result of high pressure consolidating in the central Gulf. Breezes are now gentle to moderate and predominantly northeasterly. Surface conditions are mind with temperatures near to slightly above 70 with dew points in the lower 60s. Deep layered troughing is now aligned off the Atlantic coast and stretches southwards across eastern Cuba. In addition, broad ridging aligned over the western United States and Mexico is contributing to warmer and drier air aloft across our area. This evenings sounding indicated precipitable water is now down near the 25th percentile wit considerable dry air above roughly 800 mb. There is limited CAPE and weak inhibition above a fairly moist boundary layer. This profile had supported earlier moderate to heavy shower activity near an old mainland heat low that migrated southwestward off of South Florida and into the Gulf waters off of the Lower Keys. This activity has recently petered out, but scattered showers still dot portions of the Florida Straits.

The previously mentioned surface high will continue to consolidate as it migrates eastward towards Florida. As a result, northeasterlies winds will continue to trend downwards overnight. Clear skies, a modest dew point depression, and a weakening flow that may become aligned along portions of the island chain will open the door for some radiational cooling. The best chance for this will be in the Lower Keys. Meanwhile, the Upper Keys may stay backed north and be the most affected by a weak land breeze. As a result, overnight lows will probably range quite in the 60s to near 70 with dew points likely falling a degree or two into the upper 50s. Warm and dry air will persist aloft and aid in keeping minimal rain chances near the island chain.

MARINE

Issued at 935 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

A surface high consolidating over the central Gulf will slide east southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula overnight. As a result, surface winds will trend downwards late overnight. Winds will be a bit chaotic over our nearshore Gulf side waters due to a weakening heat trough migrating southwestward through the region. A caution remains in effect for Hawk Channel, we well as Gulf and bay zones. Residual seas and some hints of higher breezes will keep an Advisory in effect for the Florida Straits.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be gentle, broadly out of the northeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ052>055-072>075.