textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A generally active pattern will remain in place with above normal to well above normal rain chances through mid week, peaking tonight and Monday.

- Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Unsettled weather across the area will keep flight categories going back and forth between VFR and MVFR due to SCT to BKN skies near FL030. The best chance for active weather at either island terminal will be between now and 27/00Z and then again after 27/06Z. The heaviest showers may lead to occasional IFR VIS, but that will need to be amended into the package later once activity increases in coverage. Background winds at the surface will generally be variable near 5 knots, and will assume a northwesterly direction during the later afternoon or early evening hours.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 428 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 The Keys are expected to remain on the southern flank of a broad longwave trough across the Eastern Seaboard with ridging on either side of this trough. This will keep increased moisture and instability across the region for the next several days resulting in above normal to well above normal rain chances. Rain chances peak tonight and Monday when the moisture and instability across the area maximizes. Decreasing rain chances are expected thereafter as slightly drier air moves in and the longwave trough shifts off to the east. Outside of the rain and thunder chances, typical summertime heat and humidity will continue with daytime highs near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 80s. Dew points in the mid to upper 70s combined with temperatures near 90 degrees will keep heat index values between 105 to 108 degrees with isolated locations to 110 degrees. South to southwest light breezes this morning will give way to light to gentle breezes this afternoon while also shifting to the west to northwest. At the surface, a frontal boundary is expected to remain draped across Florida for much of the week. This will result in mostly gentle to moderate southwest breezes.

MARINE

Issued at 1112 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 Surface troughing will continue to dig across the area today, causing light and variable breezes to back to the northwest and becoming gentle to modestly moderate. Pop up showers and thunderstorms will crawl across the local waters. Seas will be higher and waters will be rougher in, and near, showers and thunderstorms. Breezes will return from the southwest and west as the trough moves east of the Florida Peninsula early this week. There is growing confidence of a return to an active weather pattern starting tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 90 82 90 / 50 60 40 40 Marathon 82 90 81 90 / 60 60 40 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.