textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog will be possible early this morning and Saturday morning.

- Dry conditions, along with light breezes and seasonably warm temperatures, will persist today.

- Winds will increase Saturday, peaking Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- A frontal boundary will push through the Keys Sunday night and Monday, supporting increased measurable rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 515 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 The Florida Keys remain in a region of weak pressure gradient. Surface analysis places a weak stalled frontal boundary straddling Central Florida, with an expansive, weak area of high pressure to the south. Clear skies, coupled with light and variable winds, have supported yet another radiational cooling event for the favored, larger, sheltered island communities. Temperatures range from the mid 50s in the coolest spots (including interior Big Pine Key), to mid 60s across most of the Middle and Upper Keys. GOES-16 derived fog products indicate areas of fog developing and expanding across a good portion of the southern portions of the Florida Mainland. Given the current near- calm winds and near-zero dewpoint depressions, would fully expect similar patchy marine and radiational fog to emerge over portions of the Lower and Middle Keys and the adjacent nearshore waters to the north over the next couple of hours.

Overall, ensemble mean fields for the array of global numerical weather prediction models have changed little in their solutions over the next seven days. Our forecast supports these minimal changes. Quiescent conditions will continue through Saturday, supporting a persistence forecast of warm afternoons, mainly clear skies, nil rain chances, and radiational cooling events at night (including patchy fog).

A now neutrally- tilted shortwave trough over the Baja Peninsula will somewhat deamplify as it progresses eastward to the Gulf Coast. A surface reflection of this feature still appears to occur on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains by Saturday, with the surface low then slowly strengthening as it approaches the Southeast by Sunday. Most ensemble mean fields now keep the best upper-level support north of the Florida Keys. Boundary-layer moistening will occur, but baroclinicity will be rather weak at the surface. A band of scattered light showers will be possible as the front approaches Sunday night and Monday, although Keys residents looking for a breaking of the below normal precipitation amounts this year will likely be disappointed.

Only weak high pressure is expected to build across the Mid- Atlantic in the wake of the frontal passage. The air mass associated with this high will be of mid- latitude origins, and thus expect little to no change in the near-normal temperatures for early next week. A return to general weak ridging, coupled with forecast soundings supporting a very dry lower tropospheric profile, will yield another week of near-nil rain chances and seasonably warm conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 515 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 No watches, warnings or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. However, patchy fog will be possible in the cool waters north and west of the Lower and Middle Keys early this morning, then again tomorrow morning. From synopsis, a nebulous pressure pattern across the Florida Keys coastal waters will support light and at times variables winds through tonight. High pressure diving off the Mid- Atlantic coastline will interact with a developing area of low pressure north of the Gulf Coast by, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes. The low pressure system will drive a frontal boundary through the Keys marine zones Sunday night into Monday, with gentle winds clocking around to the northwest in its wake for early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 06z Saturday morning, with near-nil rain chances. With that said, light and at times variable winds will support possible brief bouts of patchy fog, especially in the vicinity of EYW. Impacts to visibilities should be limited, and any fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise.

CLIMATE.

On this day in 2019, a record rainfall of 2.45" was measured at Marathon International Airport. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to 1950.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.