textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A cloud line is possible during the late afternoon and evening hours today.
- A mainly dry period is expected to continue through early week, exasperating existing moderate drought conditions.
- Expect mainly light to gentle southeast breezes to prevail into early week, becoming variable at times.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1044 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 A nebulous surface pattern continues for the Florida Keys. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a relatively moist profile from the surface up to around 850 mb, with a deep stable layer above. In this setup, as we quickly approach the start of the wet season in the Florida Keys, we will need to watch for small-scale cumulus cloud line development this afternoon. The derived in- house waterspout index from this morning's sounding was 32%, meaning there is approximately a one in three chance of a cloud line originating waterspout to be observed in the vicinity of the Florida Keys. Outside of this possible phenomenon and associated isolated shower activity, yet another warm, dry late April afternoon on tap for the Florida Keys.
MARINE
Issued at 1044 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure over the North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the Florida Keys for the next several days. This will support generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes, becoming light and variable at times.
AVIATION
(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 VFR conditions are mostly expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH island terminals through 12z Monday morning. Slight chances of rain remain in the vicinity of the terminals this afternoon. We will handle any showers approaching the terminals with TEMPO groups due to lack of confidence in timing and coverage. Near surface winds will remain southeasterly this morning, becoming light and variable during the late afternoon and into the overnight hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 85 76 85 77 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 84 76 85 76 / 20 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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