textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Relatively drier conditions briefly make a return for today and tonight.

- Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys.

- A trough is expected to develop and sit along the eastern and southeast U.S., which may result in an active weather pattern early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Shower activity will be limited today therefore no mention of VCSH necessary at either terminal. Near surface southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots will become variable this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a col will develop across the region today, leading to a brief period of light and variable winds through this evening. Thereafter, breezes will freshen to gentle breezes and back to the west to northwest as a surface trough develops Sunday. Breezes will return from the southwest and west as the trough moves east of the Florida Peninsula early next week. There is growing confidence of a return to an active weather pattern starting Sunday night.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 453 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A somewhat active start to the overnight with multiple outflow boundaries intermittently becoming active. The last vestiges of these showers have moved northwest into the Southeastern Gulf waters with only a few isolated stragglers in the eastern Straits and Florida Bay. Otherwise, a col is beginning to take shape in the wake of the easterly wave we had yesterday. This is leading to gradually declining winds from the east to southeast.

The best chances to seeing showers or even an isolated thunderstorm will mainly be this morning. Thereafter, relatively drier air will move in and winds will become light and variable, making it more difficult for mass to bump into each other. Beginning Sunday, a surface trough will begin taking shape and gradually building south across the Florida Peninsula, including the Florida Keys.

As this surface trough develops, the base will settle across the Florida Keys. As a results winds will back out of the west to northwest across the waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge, while becoming southwest to west elsewhere. These southwest to west winds could set up the Middle and Upper Keys for a reverse cloud line during the afternoon on Sunday. Even if cloud lines develop but do not fire off any convection, it will essentially pre-seed the atmosphere.

The trough is expected to stall and hold generally in place across the Keys into early next week. It is becoming increasingly likely that we will be entering a more active weather pattern.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.