textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions will continue across the Florida Keys for the next several days. - Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes expected through the Thursday afternoon into the evening, especially off the Upper Keys. - Rain and thunder chances will remain slim through the weekend.

- Breezy conditions are possible by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A fairly amplified mid latitude trough complex reaches down into Florida and has contributed to lower level troughing across Florida and a surface low racing northeastward off the mid- Atlantic coast. Moderate westerlies have built in across the Keys. Conditions remain warm and humid with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. This evenings sounding indicated precipitable water was slightly above the 75th percentile and virtually uncapped. However, there was a substantial dry layer between roughly 500 and 700 mb. Widely scattered activity along maritime boundaries and a reverse cloud line have largely struggled to amount to much.

The surface trough is very slowly dragging itself eastward across Florida, even as the parent low is racing off to the northeast. This will keep moderate westerlies across the Keys. Eventually drier air will wrap around the trough, but for tonight, expect dew points to remain in the lower to mid 70s. Overall, the environment will remain uncapped with a persistent lower to mid level dry layer. This should continue to support isolated to scattered activity through the night. Expect overnight lows to settle near 80.

MARINE

Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A surface trough is lumbering slowly eastward across Florida. This is resulting in moderate westerly breezes across the Keys this evening, and are expected to persist through the night. Widely scattered fast moving showers may deliver a brief shot of heavy downpours, and wind gusts near 25 knots.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. With that said, there will be a chance for brief sub VFR conditions due to isolated fast moving showers across the area.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.