textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Cooler and very dry air will result in nil rain chances today. -Expect steady moderation through the weekend, but conditions will remain cooler and drier than normal.

-Another reinforcing front is expected to move through the area sometime on Sunday or Sunday night.

-A potential prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions is anticipated for the early to middle part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 What a roller coaster of weather for the Florida Keys over the past twenty-four hours. The powerful cold front that blasted through the Keys yesterday, bringing bouts of showers and then near-gale conditions is all but a distant memory, as high pressure currently centered near Jacksonville, Florida continues to quickly shift eastward. Slackened pressure gradient has corresponded to winds dramatically decreasing over the past six hours. The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled about as dry of a tropospheric moisture profile as possible at Key West, with a well-mixed layer up to around 900 mb capped by an impressive 8C temperature inversion. Given this setup, it will be hard to buy a cloud this afternoon, let alone a shower. Temperatures will remain cool with continued northerlies for much of the day, supporting temperatures only rising another few degrees this afternoon. No changes needed to the inherited, rather routine short-term forecast.

FORECAST

The aforementioned high pressure system will continue to slowly move off to the east through tonight. This will lead to rapidly slackening breezes through the day as the gradient collapses. Vast dry air will keep rain chances nil for today and this evening. Daytime highs today will only manage to reach the mid 60s and this may occur late in the day to even after sunset. After the sun comes up this morning, temperatures may actually continue to cool some across the Middle and Lower Keys before moderating. As the flow becomes more easterly tonight, the wind will help to keep the air more moderated tonight which may inhibit temperatures from falling all that much. As of now, current thinking is temperatures may stay fairly steady overnight in the lower to mid 60s with little change from late daytime highs.

High pressure continues to move farther out into the western North Atlantic over the weekend. This will lead to generally light to gentle northeast to east breezes through Saturday night. Slight moisture return is anticipated overnight leading to slight chances (10%) in the forecast after midnight. This moisture return will be mostly shallow and might not be more than just an increase in cloud cover. The moisture becomes a bit deeper for Saturday and Saturday night resulting in 20% PoPs.

Confidence continues to increase for another front to press through the Keys sometime Sunday afternoon/late Sunday. This will result in another shot of cooler air, breezy to windy conditions, and a dip in humidity. In the wake of this front, a rather large high pressure system is expected to move across the eastern United States which is expected to keep the breezes elevated for much of the week. Moisture will remain scarce with most of the shower activity, if any, remaining across the Straits. It is not until the middle of next week when the moisture might be able to creep just far enough north to affect the Island Chain. Due to this, slight chances are now in the forecast for mid to late next week. Temperatures and dew points will also slowly moderate through the week. Expect temperatures to be back to slightly above normal to above normal by late in the week.

MARINE

Issued at 1047 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 Although winds have slackened and seas have subsided below Small Craft Advisory criteria, small craft should continue to exercise caution for residual elevated seas this afternoon in the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure centered near the Florida First Coast will quickly slide eastward. This will support rapidly slackening breezes through Saturday, with breezes continuing to clock to the northeast to east. The next cold front is progged to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters on Sunday or Sunday night, with fresh to strong northerly breezes in its wake for early next week.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Saturday morning, with nil rain chances. Near-surface winds out of the north to northeast will veer to the northeast to east through the TAF period and continue to slowly slacken.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 64 64 73 67 / 0 20 10 20 Marathon 65 65 75 67 / 0 10 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.