textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions will prevail today, before an approaching cold front elevates rain chances tonight. After the front passes, mainly dry conditions will follow for the rest of the forecast period.

- Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Straits of Florida this morning until winds slacken today.

- A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 455 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 A mostly uneventful Sunday morning is underway across the Florida Keys. KBYX radar does not currently detect any precipitable echoes and has not for the past several hours. GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery notes a field of spotty stratocu streaming over the Straits of Florida northwest towards the island chain. These clouds are few in number and generally quick to dissipate resulting in mostly clear skies over our land areas. Offshore observation platforms along the Reef report moderate to occasionally fresh southeast breezes. As a result, temperatures along the island chain are warmer with values generally in the lower 70s and are a larger distance away from dew points in the mid 60s than yesterday's very moist morning.

These elevated breezes are a result of the interaction between a surface high offshore of the Carolinas and a low pressure system sliding east just north of the Gulf coast. As the high slides out into the western North Atlantic today breezes will gradually slacken to gentle to moderate. Tonight, winds are expected to start veering as a weak cold front associated with the low drags through the central Gulf. This front is expected to pass through the Keys late Monday. The most notable expected impact is above normal rain chances Monday night ahead of and with the front. Northerly breezes with this front will quickly return to the east and slacken by the end of Tuesday. This does mean we'll see a brief cool down Tuesday morning with lows approaching the lower 60s, but wind quickly returning to a normal direction will mild out temperatures for the next morning.

The extended forecast has not changed much. High pressure filtering in behind the weak frontal passage will dominate our weather pattern with easterly winds. This will result in mostly mild conditions and near nil rain chances as dry air aloft continues to suppress meaningful convective development. This ridge is expected to meander off into the western North Atlantic but remained nosed over Florida resulting in a shift to southeasterly breezes at the end of the week. Global models are hinting at the next cold front passage for early next week, but we are regarding this solution with skepticism due to how far out it is for now.

MARINE

Issued at 455 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys, but Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease in the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, high pressure centered off the Carolina Outer Banks interacting with low pressure on the north Gulf coast will support moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys early today. Breezes will gradually slacken and veer as the high escapes into the western North Atlantic and the low pressure system nudges a frontal boundary towards the Keys. The front is expected to pass through Monday evening without a potent surge of northerly breezes in its wake. Breezes will continue to slacken and veer to the northeast on Tuesday as the next high pressure slides into the eastern Gulf Basin and keeps hold of our weather pattern into the back half of the work week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected for both EYW and MTH for the TAF period. Sparse cloud cover will move through the region, but not at coverage to cause CIGs. Winds near 10 knots will slowly veer southeasterly.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys weather history in 1985, the daily record low temperature of 49F was recorded in Key West. Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 78 67 77 63 / 10 30 20 10 Marathon 77 69 77 65 / 10 30 20 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.