textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Island cloud line formation will be possible in the late morning or afternoon hours through the weekend.

- Waterspouts will be possible with any developing island cloud line.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, with heat indices approaching near 100F each afternoon through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Our KBYX radar has seen showers from earlier this evening taper off already, but a new area of isolated thunderstorms has just popped up to the north of the Lower Keys, specifically near Cudjoe Key. This thunderstorm formed along an old outflow boundary that had originated from thunderstorms over Shark Point earlier tonight. As we are typing this evening update, this thunderstorm is already starting to decay. The 00Z KKEY sounding points to some low to mid layer dry air, some of it possibly from being on the periphery of some SAL over the Gulf. Partly to mostly cloudy skies helped to insulate the Keys, and temperature observations are currently being reported in the lower 80s. Dew points are in the mid 70s, and some quick math gives us heat index values around 90F. Overall, this evening is looking a lot like last night, which makes sense given that the overall pattern has seen very little change.

Considering the lack of larger scale ascent, and the healthy amount of drier air in the vertical profile, carrying a slight chance (20%) of rain for tonight seems reasonable. Temperatures may only come down a couple of more degrees due to the waxing and waning cloud cover aloft. No changes are needed to the inherited forecast package.

MARINE

Issued at 1130 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys. From synopsis, elongated high pressure extending from the Southeast eastward to the western North Atlantic will support light to gentle east to southeast breezes through Saturday, gradually veering to the southeast to south for Sunday and early next week. Shower coverage across the Florida Keys coastal waters will remain low while a layer of dry air lingers in the lower atmosphere.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with a BKN to OVC deck near FL130. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are low, near 10 percent through most of the TAF package, but any showers that do pop up should not result in any significant delays.

OF NOTE

On this day in 2002, a daily rainfall total of 5.29" was recorded at Pennekamp State Park.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 89 81 89 / 10 20 10 10 Marathon 81 90 81 90 / 10 20 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.