textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms continues tonight through tomorrow with possible afternoon cloud line development. - Mainly light to gentle broadly easterly breezes will continue through the first half of the week.

- The Remnants of Dolly remain near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and may bring a period of much higher rain chances by the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1026 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Expansive deep-layer ridging is currently dominating the upper-level pattern across the region, characterized by the merging of a 596dam ridge centered over the Mississippi River with the seasonable western Atlantic ridge. In between the two height centers, high moisture content remains pinched along the Eastern Seaboard extending southwest into Florida and the eastern Gulf. In fact, we continue to measure PWATs near 2" on our KKey RAOB this evening. Despite the moisture present aloft, the KBYX radar is detecting minimal shower activity across our coastal waters, and no thunderstorm activity over the last couple of hours. Latest hi-res guidance is not aggressive on additional development through the remainder of the night, but we still have several outflow boundaries traversing the area from decaying thunderstorms over South Florida, so the forecast for tonight will maintain 20-30% rain chances. Temperatures are currently sitting in the mid 80s along the Island Chain and will soon settle near the lower 80s. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Central Atlantic is promoting east to northeast light to gentle breezes across the area.

This orientation is likely to persist tomorrow, perhaps becoming variable at times during the afternoon, supporting potential cloud line development once again. It appears that the Florida mainland will also have another active seabreeze day which will surely send some boundaries our way, so I will maintain the Chance PoPs across the forecast area, highest in the nearshore and coastal waters north of the island chain.

MARINE

Issued at 1026 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Broad surface ridging extending westward from the Atlantic is currently promoting generally light, occasionally gentle, breezes from the east to northeast. This orientation is expected to continue for the next few days. From synopsis, expect continued peaking and lulling breezes. The direction will also shift over the next few days with east to southeasterly breezes overnight and in the morning with northeast to east breezes late afternoon and evening. In addition, the overall flow will keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

From synopsis, a split ridge pattern remains in place across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will promote generally light to gentle southeast to south breezes through Sunday, becoming variable at times during the afternoon hours. While North Atlantic ridging builds westward, southeasterly to easterly breezes will become more established for Sunday night through the middle of next week, becoming gentle and at times moderate during the overnight hours.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.