textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak frontal boundary is stalled across the Straits. As a result, expect slight chances of rain today for the Middle and Lower Keys with chances for the Upper Keys. Slight chance of thunder for all the Keys.

- Further increasing rain and thunder chances are expected heading through the weekend and into early next week bringing some very beneficial rain.

- Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Light showers are possible though will become less likely as the day goes on therefore VCSH has been removed from EYW, but included for lingering showers near MTH. Near surface winds are light and northerly becoming southeast to south later this evening.

FORECAST

The aforementioned frontal system will stall somewhere across the Straits later today. This may result in dew points dipping a couple to few degrees from the lower 70s into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Moisture remains modest for today resulting in mainly a slight chance of showers. Instability starts to rise today though resulting in slight chance of thunder in the forecast today going forward.

As we head into the weekend, the stalled front to our south will lift back north as a warm front over the weekend. In addition, the mid and upper level pattern will be more favorable for unsettled weather with multiple shortwaves moving through around the base of this trough. This will lend to further increasing rain chances along with the possibility of thunder, due to most of the ingredients (instability, trigger being the boundary, and ample moisture) coming together. Right now, it appears the most robust activity will remain over the mainland as they have the sea breeze to contend with as well which can provide extra lift. That is not to say a rogue cell can't affect the Keys to result in some strong gusty winds, especially for the Upper Keys. Overall, the weekend into early next week will feature rounds of showers and thunderstorms with the timing and placement of this activity continuing to remain uncertain at this time. Breezes will also shift back to the southeast and freshen as the high over the Atlantic begins to nudge back to the west. This will also help to pump up the dew points potentially reaching the mid 70s by Monday. Since a more unsettled pattern is upon us, the odds are increasing for the Keys and much of Florida to see very beneficial rain over the weekend through mid next week.

Looking at the extended, confidence is increasing for a much stronger frontal system to press through the Keys early next week. This is slowly beginning to look like a "bring it" front. With that being said, it still is quite a bit far out in time but there are increasing signs for a cooler period coming for next week and just in time for Saint Patrick's Day. The main takeaways right now are the continued potential for cooler temperatures, drop in dew points, breezy to windy conditions, as well as rain chances continuing. There are also signs pointing towards this being a prolonged period of cooler temperatures with more comfortable humidity. Stay tuned!

MARINE

Issued at 1053 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. Though, waterspouts have been reported and conditions remain favorable for other development through this afternoon. From synopsis, generally weak and nebulous flow will result in varying breezes today. High pressure will slowly build back into the region tonight continuing through the weekend. This will lead to freshening mainly southeast breezes as a result. Another more significant frontal system will begin to make its way towards the Keys early next week. This will lead to southeast breezes clocking around the compass becoming northwest to north early next week while also freshening.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.