textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate east-southeasterlies will prevail through Friday. - Above-normal shower and thunder chances will continue through the end of the work week.

- Rain chances will return to near normal by the weekend as the Atlantic ridge builds across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 919 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Moist and unstable conditions were sampled on the latest KKEY RAOB which is evident by the recent redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Keys nearshore waters and island chain. All in all, activity hasn't been as robust as earlier today or previous nights. A few communities in the lower chain may receive an additional one quarter to one half inch of rainfall on top of the nearly one inch of rainfall that fell across much of the Lower Keys this morning, and stronger storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 30 kts. Cooler outflow has allowed temperatures to fall to near 80 degrees at KEYW and KNQX.

A low to mid-level trough axis embedded within the large-scale Atlantic ridge will traverse the area through Friday providing lift for continued above-normal rain chances, and we will likely see an uptick in activity again during the morning hours tomorrow. In between rainfall, temperatures will easily rebound into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Maintaining Chance to Likely PoPs in the forecast seems like a solid call given the combination of high 1000-500mb moisture content and support from the aforementioned shortwave trough.

MARINE

Issued at 919 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next few hours across the nearshore and coastal waters with a general decrease in activity expected after midnight. NOWcasts and potential Marine Weather Statements will be utilized for stronger activity producing gusty winds, rougher seas, and frequent lightning strikes. A low-level trough will traverse the area tomorrow which will continue to support above-normal rain chances through the day. An Atlantic surface ridge extends west into Florida and the northeastern Gulf driving gentle to moderate east- southeasterly breezes which will tend to peak during the overnight hours with this orientation forecast to persist through the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 919 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Will maintain a PROB30 for TSRA from 02-04Z due to activity redeveloping over the nearshore waters south of the Lower Keys followed by a slight lull in thunderstorm activity through the remaining overnight hours thereafter. Amendments will be used if needed. Moist, southeast flow and subtle low-level troughing will support continued chances for showers/storms tomorrow morning, so VCTS was included in the TAF beginning at 12Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 83 / 60 60 40 40 Marathon 90 83 90 84 / 50 60 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.