textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Weather will trend drier and modestly warmer for the next few days.

- Gentle to moderate breezes will continue through Wednesday night before breezes freshen ahead of the next cold front.

- The next cold front is scheduled to push through the Florida Keys on Thursday afternoon or evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 The 12z sounding at KEY sampled rising geopotential heights below 500 mb. The sounding also sampled a tremendously dry profile throughout the troposphere. GOES-19 visible satellite imagery allows for quick detection of the location of a surface high, docked directly over the Florida Peninsula, with anticyclonic flow along its perimeter. The aforementioned rising heights are consistent with a modest warming trend for the Florida Keys today. The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies, nil rain chances, with temperatures climbing towards the mid 60s by the afternoon. No changes proposed.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 508 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 The mild weather is thanks to a broad high pressure dominating the southeastern US, which will continue to suppress any moisture attempting to enter the area. Under this pattern the Keys will experience gentle to moderate winds with dry conditions through midweek as the high remains in control. Going into Thursday, winds will quickly freshen and back as another cold front races through our area. Ahead of the front, rain chances will slightly increase with a possibility of a pre-frontal line of showers. Confidence is increasing that Small Craft Advisory headlines may be required from late Thursday and Thursday night. This front will then bring another round of cooler temperatures for the Keys with lows projected in the mid to lower 50s for a majority of the island chain, with the Upper Keys potentially seeing upper 40s. Stay tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 508 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, moderate, generally north to northeast breezes are expected through Wednesday. Near the end of the week, another cold front will push through the Keys marine zones. This will bring another push of freshened breezes and building seas for Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Wednesday morning, along with nil rain chances. Near-surface winds will remain generally out of the northeast, occasionally gusting 16 to 18 knots through the afternoon. Gusts will become much less frequent overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 66 60 70 61 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 64 59 68 60 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.