textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to modestly moderate breezes this morning will follow a waxing and waning pattern over the next few days.

- Temperatures will gradually warm, returning closer to normal towards the end of the work week.

- Nil rain chances are expected for the next several days as dry air remains entrenched across the Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

A quiet, peaceful, and tranquil overnight for the Florida Keys. Dry air continues to inhibit any potential for precipitation. That being said, there is enough boundary layer moisture, weak instability, and speed convergence across the Straits of Florida that we have had clusters of strato-cu moving through. Meanwhile, a broad surface high pressure sits along almost the entire length of the Eastern Seaboard with the Florida Keys sitting at its most southern extent. This is maintaining a northeast across the area with speeds generally of 10 to 15 knots. Temperatures are similar to yesterday morning ranging from mid to upper 50s in the Upper Keys to lower 60s in the Lower Keys.

For today, the aforementioned surface high will gradually become more disorganized and splinter into two pieces. It will slowly reorganize itself with a new center developing near or just off the coast of the Southeast U.S. late this evening and overnight. By Tuesday, the high will slink further south southeast and settle near the Northwestern Bahamas. Thereafter, the high will flatten and spread out in an west-east fashion, placing the ridge axis either over top or very near the Florida Keys. This will likely lead to a period of light and variable winds towards the end of the week and into the start of the weekend.

Looking beyond, models have been going back and forth on whether or not a front will move through the Florida Keys sometime this weekend. The ECMWF has been flip-flopping on a frontal passage, while the GFS has been more consistent keeping any fronts to our north. For now, maintaining a middle of the road approach and have kept in mentions of at least slight chances for rain towards the end of the forecast period. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry with a very gradual warming trend.

MARINE

Issued at 415 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Mostly gentle to moderate breezes will persist today as high pressure dominates the weather pattern over our local waters. The exception will be across the cooler, shallower waters north of the island chain, where breezes will be light to gentle. Meanwhile, a broad surface high pressure extends along the entirety of the Eastern Seaboard and is in the process of becoming disorganized. A new surface high will consolidate off the Southeastern U.S. coast Tuesday and slowly meander east out across the Atlantic. This will maintain a wax and waning of breezes today through at least Wednesday. Towards the end of the week, the high will flatten and expand westward across the Florida Keys, leading to a brief period of light and variable breezes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 415 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at both terminals. Near surface winds will remain northeast to east between 5 to 11 knots. Dry air will also continue to dominate with nil rain chances prevailing.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1895, the daily record cold high temperature of 52F was recorded in Key West. This is also the coldest high temperature ever recorded in the month of February. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 74 63 74 64 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 74 63 75 63 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.