textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will prevail over the next couple days, and will tend to peak overnight before lulling during the day. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys through the weekend, and into the beginning of next week.

- Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the lower to mid 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s.

- A frontal boundary will move through the Keys sometime Sunday, potentially bringing another period of windy conditions, lower humidity, and increasing rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 We don't really get tired of bragging about how beautiful our weather can be along the Florida Keys, and today is another example of that! High pressure remains the dominant feature over our weather conditions, but a slight increase in moisture in the lower levels has resulted in some more cloud cover compared to 24 hours ago. The 12Z KKEY sounding calculated a PWAT value of 0.90", just a little more than the 0.76" from yesterday. Visible satellite imagery shows a broken blanket of fair weather cumulus across the local waters, and including the Lower Keys, but our KBYX radar is only detecting a couple of very light showers over the distant Florida Straits. It is simply amazing what the atmosphere can do with its resources. Temperatures are currently in the lower 80s, and dew points reflect the slight increase in moisture with current observations showing values in the lower 70s. Of note, humidity values are currently between 0% and 75%, and this is an increase of nearly 20% compared to 24 hours ago.

Due to the nudge in moisture, we'll go ahead and maintain the 10% chance of rain today for the island chain. The area most likely to see showers will be over the waters to our south, but we can't rule out a stray shower or two brushing any island community. No changes are needed to the inherited forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Expect mostly sunny skies with day time highs reaching once again into the lower to mid 80s. Otherwise, another moisture plume will pivot in tonight with additional slight chances for showers and another round of peaking winds.

As we go into the weekend, we see one more cycle of winds peaking and lulling on Saturday. By Sunday, a high out across the western North Atlantic will ease further east in response to an approaching frontal boundary. This will cause winds to slacken and it's possible we could briefly see variable winds as the pressure gradient becomes nebulous. The next front will slowly bleed in from the north and northeast Sunday night into Monday and won't come with much fanfare.

The strong high filling in behind it Monday, however, will usher in a blast of northeasterlies across the island chain. Expect winds to sharply increase during the late afternoon and evening hours on Monday with windy conditions quickly developing. As the high moves across the southeastern tier of the U.S. and across the southwestern North Atlantic, we will maintain windy conditions Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

As the high slides further to our east, winds will relax and potentially better moisture will return. There is high uncertainty however, as models disagree on where the moisture axis will lie. The GFS favors an axis placement near or across the Keys, while the ECMWF has it well to our south with a continuation of dry conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. High pressure over the area will encourage gentle to modestly moderate breezes with the highest breezes across Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits. A stray light shower or two may pop up over the Straits. Otherwise, dry conditions will continue through the weekend. The next opportunity for hazardous conditions will be late Monday afternoon or evening as breezes will freshen due to a frontal boundary.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026 Dry weather will remain in place across the area, including both island terminals, but MVFR CIGs will continue through the first few hours of the TAF period at EYW due to low level moisture. These should clear out by approximate 17/18. Northeasterly surface winds near 10 knots may see occasional gusts to near 15 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 84 74 85 74 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 82 75 83 76 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.