textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Breezes are on track to slacken by the end of the weekend and periods of light and variable winds are expected next week.
- A swath of Saharan dry air will remain across the Keys through at least early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 Lingering showers on KBYX have all diminished and currently the radar is shower free! Tonight's 00z KKEY sounding revealed a 0.15 inch drop in PWAT which is in line with MIMIC precipitable water displaying the movement of dry air from the Saharan layer into our area. Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s making for another warm humid night. Along the Reef, marine locations are reporting southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots. Since Saharan dry air has moved in, shower chances will be near nil with only a few that could pop up and fizzle out quickly. Breezes will continue to be east to southeasterly and gentle to moderate overnight and into tomorrow morning. No changes were needed to the update package as an uneventful night is expected.
MARINE
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys will start to slacken before the start of the work week. The subtropical ridge is expected to weaken as a mid latitude trough descends into the Atlantic from the eastern United States. Periods of light and variable breezes are possible early next week as a result. Meanwhile, a Saharan Air Layer is forecast to move across the Keys waters early next week. There is high confidence shower coverage will be low for most of the forecast period.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Dry air will limit shower activity therefore no mention of VCSH necessary at either terminal. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at near 10 knots through tonight.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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