textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds through Tuesday.

- Confidence continues to increase for a potentially wet and thundery period Wednesday through next Sunday.

- A general 2-4" of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are possible at most island communities for this period.

MARINE

Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

East to southeast breezes will freshen across the remaining waters this evening and overnight and Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely occur. A high pressure centered near Bermuda will maintain moderate to fresh breezes through Tuesday night before substantially slackening beyond mid-week. There remains considerable uncertainty of the weather pattern late in the week and through the weekend. While exact surface features remain in question, it does look to be a wet period but not necessarily a windy pattern. Mariners are urged to stay up to date by checking back daily for weather updates as we get closer to the event.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions will be the dominant conditions for the island terminals. A stray fast-moving shower will be possible at times through the afternoon and evening. However, better chances look to return late in the forecast period. That being said, confidence is too low to nail down a restart time at this time. Otherwise, expect breezy east to southeast winds to persist overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 549 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Another night of scattered showers throughout the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. KBYX is currently detecting showers in the nearshore waters of the Lower Keys and in the Gulf waters near T Tower. The stronger of the activity has been able to produce a few lightning strikes but not able to sustain the strength for that long of a period. Surface observations along the island chain indicate temperatures in the lower 80s with dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 70s, maintaining humid early morning conditions. Marine observations along the Reef are reporting southeasterly winds generally at 15 to 20 knots. As a result, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines are in place for all coastal waters due to those elevated winds.

Starting Wednesday, the pattern is expected to undergo a transition as the ridge shirts away from the area. This will cause veering to the south promoting the transport of additional moisture into the region. Increased moisture along with passing through short wave troughs will support locally heavy rainfall across the Keys. Current estimates are 2-4 inches of rain with locally higher amounts from Wednesday through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 90 81 90 / 30 20 40 50 Marathon 80 87 80 87 / 20 20 40 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ042>044-052>055-072>075.