textproduct: Key West

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A reverse cloud line is possible this afternoon. Any developing cloud line will tend to favor waterspout development. - Light to gentle southwest to west breezes expected today, becoming mainly light breezes tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Latest KBYX radar imagery is only detecting a few light echoes drifting to the NE across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys at this time, but otherwise it has been a dry start to the day on this second and final day of lobster mini season. While the 12Z KEY RAOB sampled a PWAT of 1.89 inches, which lies between the daily mean and 75th percentile per SPC sounding climatology, the moisture profile throughout the vertical column is still rather dry with low and mid RH values of 70% and 63%, respectively. This relatively drier air mass across the Keys stands in stark contrast to the much deeper moisture that is in place across the northern and central FL peninsula where substantial moisture pooling is occurring ahead of a wavy quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across the Southeast US. This deeper moisture just to the north is not anticipated to shift too much further south despite the amplified upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard extending into Florida. Thus, rain chances for the remainder of the day across the Florida Keys CWA will be the lower side. That said, recent satellite imagery is showing the development of what might be the early stages of a reverse cloud line later today, which could have a better chance to organize a bit closer to the Island Chain today compared to yesterday given the weaker SW wind flow profile in the low levels. Should this cloud line organize further, some additional isolated shower activity can't be completely ruled out throughout the day, but hi-res guidance is not too enthusiastic about this scenario at this time so will keep PoPs capped around 10% for this afternoon. Otherwise, highs will reach around 90 this afternoon with mainly sunny skies and the ongoing forecast remains in good shape so no changes are planned at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1037 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, the western periphery of an Atlantic surface ridge will continue to slide westward across the Florida Keys coastal waters. This will result in a weak nebulous flow today through tonight resulting in light to gentle breezes. A col region will set up for Friday into the first part of the weekend, resulting in a potential period of light and variable breezes. As high pressure strengthens in the North Atlantic, southeast breezes will freshen by the second half of the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period at both terminals across the Island Chain with SSW winds around 5 kts becoming light/VRB by tonight. While an isolated SHRA can't be ruled out later today, any shower activity that develops is expected to be light with minimal aviation impacts expected at this time.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.

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