textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys.

- A wet, stormy period will continue through this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall, especially when coincident with high tides, will exacerbate coastal flooding impacts.

- Much drier conditions are expected for Tuesday through the remainder of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1031 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

A wet and stormy morning across the Keys, especially in the Lower and Middle Keys. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms have been moving through with several dumping decent amount of rain in a short amount of time. These showers and storms are moving generally northwest to north across the island chain and have been back-building to our south throughout the morning. This has allowed for convection to train over certain locations for a prolonged period, leading to some minor flooding. Thankfully, we are coming down from our most recent hide tides. However, given rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour, it is simply falling too fast to allow for adequate drainage.

KBYX radar shows an interesting setup which has been the source of our wet morning. A broad cyclonic circulation lies across our far western waters of our AOR with anti-cyclonic flow coming from the Atlantic. This has led to a broad area of convergence across the Lower and Middle Keys and their surrounding coastal waters. As we go through the afternoon, the best forcing, lift, and moisture will gradually shift to our north and east. This means that a lot of the activity should be confined to the outer Gulf and potentially the Upper Keys and the surrounding waters. Given the wet pattern in place and no immediate end in sight, will keep likely categorical PoPs for the island chain for the time being. Winds should also come down briefly this afternoon but then briefly freshen late this evening and overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1031 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

A broad area of convergence extends from the outer Gulf waters north and east of the Dry Tortugas southward across the Lower and Middle Keys and surrounding coastal waters. Additional activity is developing across the Straits of Florida off the Upper Keys and is generally moving northwest. Mariners should expect numerous showers with occasional embedded thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon. The main focus will remain across the outer Gulf with a tail of convection extending southeast and south across the remaining waters. Outside of convection expect generally light to gentle with some occasional moderate breezes through the afternoon. During this evening and overnight, expecting a brief and minor surge in winds across the eastern Straits, eastern Hawk Channel, and waters immediately downwind of the south/southwest Mainland. Breezes may briefly touch moderate to fresh before quickly slackening shortly around or after sunrise Tuesday.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Showers and occasional thunderstorms will continue to develop across and south of the island terminals through the remainder of the morning. The core is shifting eastward and is between the EYW and MTH airfields currently. However, this narrow band is expected to shift eastward and may impact the MTH with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall along with lowering CIGs.

PREV SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

A sloppy pattern is in place across the forecast area as the overnight shift has seen plenty of showers and thunderstorms on our KBYX radar throughout the overnight hours. GOES-19 water vapor imagery depicts a disturbance parked over the eastern Gulf this morning. CIMSS vorticity analysis indicates that this feature may be confined to the lower to mid levels as there seems to be a loss of vertical continuity between 500mb and 200mb. Closer to the surface, storm motion on radar shows some confluence aiding in lift, so the current activity is likely to continue into the early morning hours. MRMS estimations highlight 6-hour rainfall amounts of nearly three quarters of an inch across portions of the Lower Keys, but the true rainmakers have remained over the local waters. There are a few bullseyes across the western Florida Straits where 3 to 5 inches may have fallen in the past six hours. Satellite-derived PWAT shows a swath of values near 2 inches across the area, which is just above the 90th percentile for this time of year.

All of this is to say that our rain and thunder chances will remain elevated through today as the aforementioned feature percolates over the eastern Gulf. Expected rainfall amounts along the island chain for today and tonight are up to an inch, which is fairly manageable over that timeframe. However, similar to yesterday, there will be pockets of heavier/stronger showers and thunderstorms. If any of these pockets traverse the island chain, rainfall amounts will skew higher. If heavier showers occur around the times of our higher tides, this could exacerbate flooding as well. The Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect to address the elevated high tides, but additional flood products may be needed if the stronger showers cross the Keys. The inherited forecast advertises a 70% chance of rain today decreasing to 50% tonight, and this seems reasonable given the ingredients in place. No changes or updates are needed with this early morning update.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 76 84 77 / 60 30 20 10 Marathon 84 77 85 77 / 70 30 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.