textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft Advisories conditions are expected to continue for all Florida Keys coastal waters through the overnight.

- Bitter cold wind chills overnight will likely result in another Cold Weather Advisory for the Upper Keys overnight into Monday.

- Weather will trend drier and modestly warmer over the next few days, but another round of unsettled weather may move through at the end of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 307 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Fresh to occasionally strong northwest to north breezes persist this afternoon and will likely continue through the evening and overnight. Breezes will begin slackening more earnestly Monday morning and continue through Wednesday. This will eventually allow for light to gentle breezes to breifly return. Thereafter, still watching for another potent front. Although this one will not be nearly as strong as the last front, a window for fresh to strong breezes will be possible sometime Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 307 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail along with gusty northwest to north winds. Expect a gradual slackening of winds during the morning hours of Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 443 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Weather over the past 24 hours has done a turn around courtesy of a cold front that has blasted through our forecast area. Gale- force northwest breezes prevailed throughout the night. Some of the highest wind gust observations we have seen along our island communities have been anywhere from 35 to almost 45 mph! Marine platforms have been consistently reporting wind gusts between 35 and 40 knots. Temperatures have also been impressive through the night with current automated observations reporting lower 50s for the Lower Keys, upper 40s for the Middle Keys, and near 40F for the Upper Keys. Our coldest observation has been from Key Largo where the temperature is current 39F with a wind chill of 31F. Compared to 24 hours ago, our area has seen a temperature change around ten to almost twenty degrees.

GOES-19 Nighttime imagery offers a glimpse of a beautiful atmosphere. The arctic air mass over the Gulf region is interacting with the relatively warmer Gulf, and the result is countless bands of cloud streets rolling across the Gulf and Atlantic. While it appears our KBYX radar is detecting a lot of shower activity, it is actually picking up on the clouds running across our sky. There may be a few very light showers mixed in, but our seemingly busy radar is not all that busy.

The cold air will remain in place today, but the gradient will start to loosen. This will allow breezes to gradually slacken, but don't expect too much relief from the colder air as highs are expected to only get into the 50s today. Later tonight, wind chills may be a concern in the Upper Keys as probabilities for wind chills in the lower 30s have a 20% to 30% of occurring again.

As the front lifts away from the area, high pressure will have the opportunity to take its place. Breezes will continue to trend lighter through the middle of the week, and temperatures will moderate. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance are still favoring another cold front as we head into the end of the week. The good news is that there are very few indicators that this cold front will be anywhere near as potent as the one that just came through. It's still just a little too early to hone in on any forecast details, but the progressive pattern may not be done with us just yet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 50 60 52 64 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 44 57 50 63 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.