textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect, and particularly low lying areas will see some saltwater ponding around the times of high tide over the next day or so.

- An uptick in moisture across the area, especially north of the island chain, will lead to periods of unsettled weather over the next few days.

- Tropical Storm Isaias remains over the southwestern Gulf, but does not pose a threat to the Florida Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 The effects of the stalled cold front across Florida are showing up on our KBYX radar this afternoon. Isolated pockets of showers have been waxing and waning over our local waters in a fairly unorganized fashion over the past couple of hours. The 18Z KKEY sounding showed an unfavorable environment for significant showers and thunderstorms with just over 200 J/kg of ML CAPE and a backing wind profile in the lower to mid levels. Satellite derived layer PWAT shows a very sharp gradient cutting across our forecast area, so some showers and thunderstorms will be able to thrive in the moist side of this gradient, mainly west and north of the island chain. Essentially, our forecast area is sitting on the periphery of all of the activity. This makes for a complicated forecast as some of our marine zones may see plenty of activity tonight while our island communities don't. Activity will be limited to boundary interactions as all of the larger scale lift will be to our north.

Sometime throughout tomorrow and tomorrow evening, drier air will have the opportunity to advect in throughout the mid layers, and will allow for rainfall chances to fall below normal again.

CIMSS vorticity analysis continues to highlight a pertubation currently in the area of Puerto Rico. Mean layer flow is southeasterly, so this wave should traverse our forecast area sometime Friday night into early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings highlight better veering in the lower wind pattern coupled with an increase in moisture, so shower and thunderstorms chances will be greatest in this timeframe. Activity will linger over the weekend, and ridging will be able to build back in as the aforementioned cold front recedes to the north and northeast.

MARINE

Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 Boaters should be aware of less clearance under fixed bridges around times of high tide as a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Florida Keys. Periods of unsettled weather will be likely over the next few days, particularly over the waters to the west and north of the island chain. However, virtually any shower or thunderstorm that forms over the next few days will have the capability of producing localized hazardous conditions. As the cold front is nudged northward closer to the end of the week, an approaching pertubation currently near Puerto Rico will lead to a more robust round of showers, thunderstorms, and elevated winds. Small Craft headlines may be required as early as Friday evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF period, but unsettled weather near the Keys may lead to occasional MVFR CIGs. Most of this activity isn't expected to approach either terminal, but a stray light shower may brush by this evening. Southwesterly surface winds will back to the south tonight, but crosswind concerns are low due to winds of 5 to 10 knots. Closer to the end of the TAF period, winds will further back to the southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 79 88 80 88 / 60 30 20 30 Marathon 79 89 80 90 / 60 30 20 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.