textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft Exercise Caution Headlines are in effect for all waters except the Southeast Gulf waters due to moderate to occasional fresh breezes.

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods.

- Uncertainty remains high for the end of the week and into this weekend with rain chances. Latest trends are for a somewhat drier pattern. - A general 1-3" of rainfall and thunderstorms, with locally higher amounts, remains possible at most island communities Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

A very similar start to the day with a narrow corridor of showers extending across the eastern Straits of Florida, through the Middle and Upper Keys, and out across the eastern Gulf waters. Some showers briefly developed west and northwest of the Lower Keys but quickly moved away from the island chain and are quickly dissipating. Meanwhile, a high pressure centered roughly southwest of Bermuda is gradually weakening and flattening. This is resulting in slackening winds and have been able to drop Small Craft Advisories for all waters. That being said, we will continue to see moderate to occasionally fresh breezes persist and Small Craft Should Continue to Exercise Caution.

Other than dropping Small Craft Advisories and making adjustments to the coastal waters forecast, made minor changes to PoPs for the rest of today. The Florida Keys will remain on the western periphery of the aforementioned high SW of Bermuda, maintaining decent moisture across the region. However, with no real forcing mechanisms other than boundary collisions rain chances will lean towards 20 to 30 percent.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 534 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Light scattered showers have been popping up around the coastal waters through the early morning in the Florida Keys. Though some of these showers have briefly crossed over the island chain, not much rainfall has been measured in any location. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s this morning with dew points in the mid 70s. The observation sites at the Reef are reporting winds of near 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Florida Bay, Bay/Gulf side waters, Hawk Channel, and Straits of Florida, in the outer Gulf waters small craft should exercise caution. The Atlantic high that has been driving the elevated winds will weaken sometime today as it drifts further east allowing for the pressure gradient to loosen, at that time Small Craft headlines are expected to come down as those winds slacken. Shower activity for today and tonight will continue to be quick in nature similarly to what we have been experiencing for the last few days.

For the remainder of the week into the weekend, a unsettled weather pattern will move into the area along with moisture surge from the veering winds to the southeast to south as the high retreats further east. This will allow for higher rain chances. Confidence on exact precipitation chances have continued to be a little lower with a lot of guidance disagreeing on them so opted to keep chance showers for the time being until details get more clear and can lock down exact rain chance values. At this time, Friday through Sunday look like the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms for the Florida Keys. Stay tuned for any updates to the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1033 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 80 90 80 / 40 30 30 20 Marathon 87 79 86 79 / 40 30 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.