textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight chance of rainfall will persist into this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the Keys. After the front passes, mainly dry conditions will follow for the rest of the forecast period.

- Gentle to moderate southwest breezes will veer to the north moving into tonight. Then, generally east light to gentle breezes will prevail during the work week. Near normal temperatures will increase to above normal highs mid week.

- A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1003 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

A pre-frontal line of showers continues to trek eastward across the Straits of Florida this morning. Meanwhile, we have been tracking a line of showers steadily marching southeast across the Gulf and has entered our waters over the last hour or so. This line of showers is the leading edge of the next cold front that will move through the Keys during the afternoon hours. Winds have been gradually veering in response to the approaching frontal boundary. South to southwest winds earlier have become west this hour and will transition to northwest behind the front. Despite the impending front, not much rain has fallen with the pre-frontal trough that moved through and even the approaching front is diminishing what showers it did have. As a result, we have seen more sun than usual (considering a front is arriving soon) and temperatures have warmed into the mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s.

Behind this front, expecting not only a switch of winds from the northwest with a relatively weak surge in winds. The bigger after effect of the frontal passage will be the drier air. This decaying line of showers (if it manages to reach the Keys) will be the last shot of rain for a while. Looking to be dry for at least the next 5 days, which is not helping the developing drought conditions for the island chain. No changes were needed for this morning's update cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1003 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Gentle to moderate westerly breezes this morning will clock around from the northwest as a weakening cold front moves across the Florida Keys coastal waters. At this time, breezes are not expected to freshen in the wake of the frontal passage. Widely scattered showers will remain present across mainly the extreme Southeast Gulf and Straits of Florida waters. Mariners encountering the stronger activity should be prepared for locally gusty winds and higher seas. Shower activity is expected to diminish through the afternoon and cease or exit the area towards sunset.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail across both island terminals. A weakening cold front is approaching from the northwest and will pass through by 17-19Z today. Showers along this boundary are weakening and pose little impacts to CIG/VIS at this time. Westerly winds will clock around to the northwest behind the front and eventually northeast overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 We have some activity in the coastal waters of the Florida Keys this morning following a spell of quiet weather. KBYX radar detects a couple lines of shallow showers moving through our southeast Gulf waters and western Straits of Florida. The northernmost of these lines is starting to scrape across the Lower Keys as it moves quickly to the east at near 20 knots. Just north of our CWA, our radar also notes the main line of convection ahead of a cold front diving along the south Florida coastline. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southwest breezes prevail along the Reef waters having turned from the south overnight. Temperatures are warmer than previous nights with values in the lower 70s and dew points near 70 resulting in another humid start to the day.

Today's big weather story is undoubtedly the weak cold front progged to sweep over our area. This initial spurt of shallow convection will quickly sweep across our area this morning until it either exits or dissipates following sunrise. Minus any other pop up developments to follow, the next wave of rain will come with the main prefrontal line of convection around the late morning or early afternoon hours if it can hold itself together to make it to the island chain. Last night's 00z KKEY balloon sounding noted a decently moist low level environment below an inversion around 800 mb, but also included a good amount of dry air aloft. Therefore, we do not expect thunderstorms over land today but cannot entirely rule them out in the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream or out in the southeast Gulf where more energy associated with the main prefrontal line could force a few towers to develop. While there is not expected to be a surge of winds with this frontal passage, gentle to moderate southwest winds from this morning will veer to the northwest by the end of the day.

While this front is not very strong, we will still see a brief cool down. Temperatures Tuesday morning are expected to fall into the mid 60s, just a few degrees below normal for this time of year. Highs will quickly recover back into the upper 70s with breezes returning back to the usual easterly direction as high pressure takes back control over southeast CONUS. From there into the extended forecast, a primarily dry and warming pattern takes over into the weekend with highs eventually making it back up to the 80s. The next cold front continues to be picked up by global models for the start of next week however, and still looks much stronger than today's passage. Will continue to monitor guidance solution trends for this feature for now, so stay tuned in the meantime.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 78 63 78 68 / 20 0 0 0 Marathon 80 65 79 69 / 20 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.