textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing moisture in association with an easterly wave will yield much higher rainfall chances mid to late week.

- Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Wind speeds will decrease late week and into the weekend with mainly light breezes prevailing.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Scattered showers will continue to move westerly through the coastal waters occasionally crossing over the island chain therefore VCSH is included through the period. Thunderstorms the late evening into the overnight are possible at both terminals as an easterly wave moves through the Keys. Near surface winds will be easterly at near 10 knots with higher gusts in passing convection.

MARINE

Issued at 1137 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, mostly gentle to moderate breezes expected today as a weak easterly wave slowly moves in from the east during the day. This feature will move east to west across of the Florida Keys waters, exiting sometime on Friday. Mariners can expect an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms beginning today and peaking overnight into early Friday. Behind this feature, breezes will slacken to light to gentle through the first half of the weekend as a col develops across the region. Thereafter, breezes will freshen to gentle breezes and back to the west to northwest as a surface trough develops Sunday. Breezes will return from the southwest and west as the trough moves east of the Florida Peninsula early next week.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Showers have gradually been increasing from east to west across the area during the overnight and early morning hours. These showers are a result of a pocket of moisture pivoting around the base of the ridge that has sat out across the Southwestern Atlantic and Florida Peninsula the last several days. This ridge is also maintaining an east to southeast wind across the area with speeds generally 10 to 15 knots across our coastal waters.

Lurking just to our east, across the Southeastern Bahamas, is a broad easterly wave that will be slowly moving into the region throughout the day. As it moves into the area, we can expect winds to gradually back towards the northeast and moisture increasing. Rain and thunder chances will be increasing by this afternoon, and peak overnight into early Friday morning.

As this wave continues a westward motion into the Gulf basin, we will briefly enter a col region for the first half of the weekend with winds going light and possibly variable at times. Beginning Sunday, a surface trough will begin developing along the eastern U.S. which will induce a west to northwest wind across the area starting Sunday. As the trough moves eastward early next week, winds will back to the southwest and west. This could set us up for potential reverse cloud lines next week. Otherwise, rain chances will generally return to near normal, outside of any nocturnal contributions from either Cuba or the mainland.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.