textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. Breezy to windy conditions will persist for several more days. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys for the next week.

- Temperatures will remain near normal, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the lower 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 957 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 All three GOES water vapor channels reveal a remarkable swath of subsidence across the Southeastern Gulf, the Straits of Florida, and portions of Central Cuba and the Bahama Banks. CIMSS mean layer analyses tell the same story, with deep ridging rooted in a sharp upper level ridge axis reaching northeast from the Yucatan Peninsula. The 00Z KKEY RAOB sampled a dry and stable profile capped by a potent inversion near 850 mb. Despite the hostile thermodynamic environment, widely scattered showers continue to race west through the Straits of Florida this evening. The enhanced echo top algorithm from the KBYX radar suggests heights in the 8-10 kft range, right where the KKEY RAOB sampled an isothermal layer and a limit to buoyancy. The lower level products from CIRA's ALPW indicate this meager moisture surge in the Straits may be followed up by a second surge early tomorrow morning. Nevertheless, slight chances (10%) for the island chain appear appropriate. The main story will be the 20 to 25 knot easterlies overnight. Accompanying the swaying palm trees and rattling shutters will be overnight lows in the lower 70s. No changes are needed or planned.

MARINE

Issued at 957 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 A high pressure system off the Eastern Seaboard will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east breezes through the early portion of this week. Fast-moving light showers cannot be ruled out, especially in the overnight periods. Breezes may briefly lull during the late afternoon and early evening across the southeastern Gulf as this area is in the "shadow of Florida". As the high moves farther eastward and slowly weakens, easterly breezes will modestly slacken by Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 957 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 VFR and gusty easterly breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 72 82 73 83 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 73 81 73 81 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.