textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-A few showers may brush the island chain over the next few days. -Temperatures will gradually trend cooler by a few degrees due to north to northeasterly breezes advecting in cooler air.

-A stronger front will move through on Thursday, bringing a reinforcing push of considerably cooler and drier conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 925 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Fairly humid conditions are in place this evening due to an old front stalling across the area. Surface dew points are in the upper 60s to near 70 with temperatures in the lower 70s, and the lower levels nearly saturated. Close to zonal flow aloft has provided weak suppression due to copious drier air above a weak 750 mb inversion. Despite the modest flow, isolated to scattered showers have persisted across the forecast area, mainly across the deep Gulf, Florida Straits, and in and around the Upper Keys.

The previously mentioned high will shift slightly southeastward and weaken a couple of millibars overnight. This should allow for winds to become more uniform light northeasterlies. However, guidance suggests that broad weak surface troughing will persist across our area despite the dissipation of the old South Florida heat trough. This should help to keep the showers going overnight. In addition this will maintain a good degree of spread in wind directions. Expect winds to be backed north to northeast on our western zones and northeast to east to the east. Expect overnight lows to be in the upper 60s to near 70 with small to no dew point depressions. Will maintain slight chance pops, with the Upper Keys having the highest chance.

MARINE

Issued at 925 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The combination of a ridge across the southeast and day time heating over South Florida will result in mainly gentle northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters overnight. Winds will initially be higher and backed northerly on our western waters, largely due to earlier day time heating. Only minor adjustments made in the evening marine update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 925 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. However, moisture abounds and periodic MVFR ceilings are possible. Surface winds will generally be light to gentle out of the northeast to east.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.