textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Very warm and humid conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, raising the risk for heat-related illnesses this weekend. - Rain and thunder chances remain slim overnight with increasing chances thereafter.
- Breezy conditions are possible by early next week.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
The 00z evening sounding shows a dry profile through the entire column of the atmosphere. The PWAT value measured was 1.11 inches which is between the 10th and 25th percentile for the date. The wind profile remains chaotic in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere with speeds very light (3 knots or less). Overall, based on the above, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast with a dry overnight anticipated. However, the deeper moisture is not far away and once this makes its move north, most likely around daybreak, expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms, especially across the Straits after daybreak.
MARINE
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes will prevail overnight and Saturday. High pressure developing over the Southeast will take root across the western North Atlantic over the weekend. As a result, moderate to fresh easterly breezes will peak and lull across the Florida Keys Sunday through Tuesday.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri May 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH terminals. Near surface winds will remain light and variable for the next few hours before shifting to the east to southeast overnight into the Saturday. Moisture is expected to increase in earnest during the mid to late morning hours on Saturday. Therefore, VCSH was included in the TAF. However, the exact placement for any of this activity remains uncertain.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 89 79 91 81 / 0 10 20 20 Marathon 86 79 87 80 / 0 10 10 40
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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