textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal to well above normal rain chances are expected through mid week, peaking tonight and Monday.

- Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys.

- A trough is expected to develop and sit along the eastern and southeast U.S., which will result in an active weather pattern today through at least mid week.

FORECAST

The Keys are expected to remain on the southern flank of a broad longwave trough across the Eastern Seaboard with ridging on either side of this trough. This will keep increased moisture and instability across the region for the next several days resulting in above normal to well above normal rain chances. Rain chances peak tonight and Monday when the moisture and instability across the area maximizes. Decreasing rain chances are expected thereafter as slightly drier air moves in and the longwave trough shifts off to the east. Outside of the rain and thunder chances, typical summertime heat and humidity will continue with daytime highs near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower 80s. Dew points in the mid to upper 70s combined with temperatures near 90 degrees will keep heat index values between 105 to 108 degrees with isolated locations to 110 degrees. South to southwest light breezes this morning will give way to light to gentle breezes this afternoon while also shifting to the west to northwest. At the surface, a frontal boundary is expected to remain draped across Florida for much of the week. This will result in mostly gentle to moderate southwest breezes.

MARINE

Issued at 428 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light south to southwest breezes this morning will freshen to gentle breezes and back to the west to northwest as a surface trough develops later today. Breezes will return from the southwest and west as the trough moves east of the Florida Peninsula early this week. There is growing confidence of a return to an active weather pattern starting tonight.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain south to southwest this morning before shifting to the west to northwest for the afternoon and evening. Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Due to the increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, VCTS and VCSH have been included in the TAF. Any showers and storms will be capable of lowering CIGs and VIS to MVFR conditions with a low probability for IFR conditions, gusty winds, and occasional lightning strikes.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2007, the daily record warm low temperature of 87F was recorded in Key West. This also ties for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in July for the Key West area. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 82 90 82 / 40 50 60 40 Marathon 90 82 90 81 / 40 60 60 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.