textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will prevail over the next few days, and will tend to peak overnight before lulling during the day. - Little to no measurable rain will maintain continued moderate drought conditions in the Florida Keys through the weekend, and into the beginning of next week.
- Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal, with highs in the lower to mid 80s, and lows in the lower to mid 70s.
- A frontal boundary will move through the Keys sometime Sunday, potentially bringing another period of windy conditions, cooler temperatures, lower humidity, and increasing rain chances.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a very dry atmospheric profile throughout the entire column with a stout inversion just above 885 mb. The sounding also shows general unidirectional wind flow with height. The sounding measured a PWAT value of 0.69 inches which is below the 10th percentile for the date. The dry atmosphere remains across the Keys for overnight. No forecast changes with this update and nil rain chances remain overnight.
MARINE
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the central North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes through the next several forecast periods. Breezes likely will lull from late morning into the late afternoon across the Gulf/Bayside waters due to the heating of South Florida. A frontal boundary will slide through sometime Sunday with a strong high pressure quickly filling in the wake. This will allow for breezes to freshen with a period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes possible early next week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH terminals. Near surface winds will remain northeast to east between 5 to 11 knots. Nil rain chances are expected overnight and on Friday due to vast dry air entrenched across the Keys.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 83 73 83 74 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 81 74 82 75 / 0 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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