textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Keys around high tide. Moderate coastal flooding will also be possible through early next week, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Rain chances will be at or below normal through the weekend, with dewpoints decreasing to near 70 by Sunday. - The first strong cold front of the season may push through the Keys late next week, with much cooler and very comfortable conditions possible in its wake.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 Surface analysis places a weak frontal boundary stretching from the Gulf and Florida Peninsula northeastward to just off the coast of New England. There is minimal cool advection associated with this frontal feature, but there is a noticeable moisture gradient detected by available CIMSS satellite-derived total precipitable waters. In the wake of the front, a sprawling 1024 mb high pressure system centered in the Midwest is supporting broad anticyclonic flow across much of the southern half of the CONUS. Closer to home, GOES-19 visible satellite products are detecting mostly sunny skies across the Florida Keys and the adjacent coastal waters, with developing fair weather cumuli over South Florida associated with daytime heating ahead of the frontal feature. Temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 80s across the Island Chain, with dew points in the lower 70s.

A rather routine forecast for the next several days for the forecast area. The aforementioned frontal feature will bleed through the Keys late this evening. Forecast soundings indicate slight backing of surface winds to the northwest to north by around sunset, which may permit enough low-level veering to support isolated shower development ahead of the moisture-driven frontal passage. Most convective allowing models (CAMs) support this evolution, with the focus of activity likely in the vicinity of the Upper Keys, where showers developing over the Mainland will have the best chance of making it to the islands. The current forecast grids support this gradient in measurable rain chances.

Outside of perhaps a couple of degrees drop in dew points for Sunday through early next week, the front will have near-neglible impacts on the weather for the Keys. The aforementioned high pressure system will slide southeastward over the next several days, with northeasterly breezes gradually veering to the northeast to east by the middle of the week. Large-scale subsidence coupled by very limited moisture will prevent any widespread shower activity, with the best chances of showers (around 20%) expected in the diurnally-favored nocturnal hours.

The forecast becomes much less mundane for Wednesday through the end of the work week. There is increasing confidence that large- scale troughing over the Northeast for much of the week may phase with a second shortwave piece of energy diving southeastward from the Great Lakes, eventually phasing into an amplifying merged trough over the Eastern Seaboard. Early indications suggest this will drive the first strong cold front of the season through the Keys late Thursday or Friday. A bit premature to discuss the specifics regarding the airmass behind the front, but below normal temperatures, very comfortable dew points, and breezy to windy conditions will all be possible in the wake of the front. For meteorologists in the Keys, the first major cold front of the season is analogous to waiting for Christmas morning to arrive-- we are hopeful.

MARINE

Issued at 115 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Florida Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially around the times of high tide. Elsewhere no watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect in the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a robust high pressure system will build across the Southeast United States over the next few days. As a result, light north to northeasterly breezes will gradually shift northeasterly and freshen early next week. As the high slides further southeastward into the west- central North Atlantic, breezes will clock around to the east and modestly slacken by mid week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026 Despite a few isolated showers remaining possible after 01z this evening, the lack of coverage and minimal impact to visibilities and ceilings gives reason to leave any mention out of the TAFs this afternoon. Model guidance has winds backing to a more northerly direction as the afternoon/evening progresses but then quickly moving back to the northeast around 04z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 75 82 75 82 / 10 0 0 10 Marathon 76 83 76 83 / 10 0 0 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.