textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will be favorable for island cloud line formation this afternoon, including possible waterspouts.

- After this afternoon, only a slight chance (10% to 20%) of rain and thunder will be in place for the next few days. - While highs will be seasonably warm in the upper 80s through next week, lows will remain warmer than normal, providing little relief from the heat in the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026 Surface observations indicate developing light and variable winds across the Florida Keys at this late morning hour. The 12z sounding at KEY sampled an uninhibited lower troposphere, with ample potential instability. GOES-19 visible satellite imagery is detecting fair weather cumuli slowly conglomerating along the favored Lower and Middle Keys, with KBYX radar detecting a few isolated showers. The in-house waterspout index sampled by the aforementioned sounding was 24%, implying a 24% of an observed waterspout across the Florida Keys this afternoon. With all that said, there is a bit of a dry pocket above 850 mb, which may squelch shower activity. Given all of this reasoning, elected to nudge PoPs to low-end chance levels (around 30%), mainly through the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, no changes proposed to the inherited full forecast package.

MARINE

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure across the area will support light to gentle southeast to south breezes over the next few days, becoming light and variable at times. The nebulous pressure pattern will continue through much of early next week, with near normal rain and thunder chances also expected.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026 Conditions will be favorable for island cloud line formation in the vicinity of the terminals through the early afternoon hours. Any developing shower will be slow moving, capable of producing sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities. Coverage is too low to include mention of VCSH at EYW, but given current radar trends, did add a window for VCSH at MTH for now. Winds will generally be light and variable throughout the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 88 81 88 81 / 30 10 10 10 Marathon 87 80 87 80 / 30 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.