textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding will continue across the Keys during the next several tidal cycles. Coastal flooding will gradually decrease later this week, but receding rates may be slow, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Breezes are expected to slacken to light to gentle northeasterlies during the rest of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 The last Wednesday of October for the Florida Keys opened with thick layers of clouds across the Lower and Middle Keys. North to northeasterly winds kept bringing cooler air from the Florida Peninsula across the Gulf waters. Skies across the Middle Keys cleared before the Lower Keys, while the Upper Keys observed partly to mostly sunny skies. The lack of cloud cover means temperatures are highest over the Upper Keys this afternoon. Radar returns from KBYX show occasional, disorganized showers over the waters. Satellite observations support the morning's KKEY sounding, which showed a persistent region of dry air above the island chain. Tonight, expect northeast moderate to gentle, occasionally light, breezes to stabilize across the Keys. Shower coverage is likely to be minimal. The primary hazard of concern will be coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for the entire Florida Keys, and the peak of the tide cycle is expected tonight. Please remember to take precautions, avoid flooded roadways, and make preparations for any property in low lying areas.

A stagnant pattern is developing across the Florida Keys. Broad upper level ridging remains in place over the eastern United States. Meanwhile, a weak cutoff low has been able to linger northeast of the Bahamas. The surface reflections of these two features, a broad high pressure system over Maine and a small surface low southwest of Andros, have moved in a way that weakened the pressure gradient across the Keys. Breezes slackened rapidly over the past day, going from strong to near gale force gusts yesterday to gentle to moderate breezes across the Keys coastal waters. Over the next few days, the high is on track to move westward over the Atlantic and weaken. The low is expected to stay weak before lifting out into the Atlantic. Conditions across the Keys are likely to return to seasonable normals. Shower chances are expected to oscillate between a slight chance and a chance through Sunday with temperatures slightly above climatological norms.

Looking further ahead, another high pressure system is on track to build over the eastern US over the weekend. A period of broad ridging and persistent high pressure is likely for the start of November. What this suggests for the Keys is a prolonged period of light to gentle, occasionally moderate, easterly breezes with copious low level moisture.

MARINE

Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys.

From synopsis: a broad high pressure system located off the New England coastline shifted east into the Atlantic. This allowed breezes to slacken to gentle to moderate easterlies. While the upper level ridge remains weakened though the rest of the week, breezes are on track to slacken further to light to gentle by the weekend for portions of the Florida Keys waters. Waves in the western waters will stay elevated early this evening, but are expected to subside to more typical values by tomorrow. The easternmost waters of Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits may observe some elevated swell over the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. CIGs began to lift at EYW this afternoon after a prolonged period of MVFR conditions. While MVFR CIGs cannot be ruled out at EYW and MTH, persistent cloud cover will become less likely by sunset. Near surface winds will trend northeasterly. Sufficient dry air will be able to keep shower coverage to a minimum.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1957, the daily record low temperature of 60F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, on this day in 1957, the daily record low temperature of 56F was recorded in Marathon. This is also tied for the coldest temperature recorded during the month of October. Temperature records for Marathon date back to June 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 77 85 78 85 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 77 86 77 85 / 20 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.