textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Measurable rain chances will stay low for each forecast period through this weekend, generally at 30%.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy.

- There will be little relief in the warm temperatures overnight, with minimum temperatures near record values in the lower to mid 80s for most communities.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1013 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A flurry of showers and thunderstorms sprung up prior to sunrise and continued for a few hours as they pulsed across mostly open waters. Unfortunately, this activity was tantalizingly close but taunted most island communities. That being said, a select few locations did see a few hundreths to as much as a tenth of an inch. The bigger winner was across the Lower Keys roughly between Ramrod to the Sugarloaf Keys where nearly a half of inch potentially fell.

Most of the activity is dwindling or on its way out this hour and we will see much less coverage for the remainder of the day. Chances should be generally 10 percent or less. Therefore, made minor adjustments to the going forecast to reflect that the best chances has passed and we will now see more or less a lull in activity until this evening and overnight. Expecting moisture to surge back in as a weak easterly undulation passes through the Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 1013 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms have greatly diminished with isolated pockets in the extreme Southeast Gulf and easternmost Straits of Florida waters this hour. Coverage will continue to remain isolated through the afternoon and into the evening. Expecting generally light to gentle easterly breezes to prevail through this afternoon. Breezes will slightly freshen during the late evening and overnight to gentle to moderate. In addition, moisture will increase and additional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the overnight and into Sunday morning. Winds and seas will be higher in and around showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions expected through the remainder of today. Residual moisture and instability may allow for isolated pockets of showers or thunderstorms pop up this afternoon. However, confidence on exact placement is too low to put mentions in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, winds will remain light to gentle out of the east.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 518 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Another typical midsummer night has unfolded and moving into another summer morning! Observations across the island chain indicate temperatures are in the mid 80s with dewpoints holding steady in the mid 70s, maintaining a moist and muggy tropical airmass. Nighttime Microphysics satelitte imagery shows mostly clear skies with periodic scattered lower cumulus clouds embedded in our easterly flow. Marine locations are reporting easterly winds near 10 knots along the Reef, reflecting a modest pressure gradient from broad high pressure system in the North Atlantic. Scattered showers and thunderstorms from earlier in the night have dwindled down with KBYX detecting only a few sprinkles in the distant Straits.

Looking ahead, little change is expected through early next week as the Atlantic high pressure continues to dominate the regional pattern and maintains east to southeast flow through the period. Breezes will slightly freshen in the afternoon with diurnal mixing and then will return to light to gentle breezes by this evening. High temperatures will near 90, with the elevated mid 70 dewpoints heat index values will approach but stay just beneath Heat Advisory criteria. Rain chances will be near normal for this time of year again today with 30% supporting isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Overall the weather will continue to be similar to previous days as no synoptic changes are anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 84 / 30 40 30 10 Marathon 89 83 89 84 / 30 40 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.