textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A thunderstorm or two may contain strong wind gusts late this afternoon and evening in the northernmost Upper Keys.

- A wetter pattern is setting up, and chances for rain and thunder will increase through the weekend and into the start of next week. There is a potential for a couple of strong thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts the main threat Sunday and Sunday night.

- Breezy to windy conditions may develop as early as Tuesday, and are expected to continue through most of the week. - Moderate drought conditions will persist for the entire island chain, however, beneficial rains will lead to improving conditions next week.

UPDATE DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Concerning the remainder of the afternoon and tonight for the Florida Keys: Convective activity has increased substantially over the eastern Straits near and south of a stationary front that, while becoming more diffuse, is attempting to drift northward over the middle and upper Keys. GOES precitable water estimates show the northerly creep of greater- than 1.5 inch precipitable water from the south with the Keys and Everglades near a well-defined gradient in deep (and per sounding and guidance soundings, mostly in the lower troposphere). With weakening inhibition and convective temperatures being reached, expected a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage. The deepening moisture is likely to boost mixed level CAPE towards the most-unstable projections, with some potential for stronger downdrafts especially closer to the mainland near our far upper Keys. Added some locally strong thunderstorm wording, as some outflow boundaries are certaintly going to add to the mix with the regenerative island cloud lines with south/southwest steering flow rather weak. MOS guidance is again robust with rain chances, but coverage could be trickier overnight once the southeast winds increase to a steadier 10 to 15 mph and only an offshore north coast Cuba boundary to focus.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A stationary front has settled across the Florida Keys and has led to broken lines of showers developing. This first round mainly affected the Middle and Upper Keys, with most of the accumulation occurring in the Middle Keys. The presence of the stationary front is also through our winds into chaos. East of the front, winds are southerly, while west of the front, winds are northerly. True to it's namesake, temperatures across the island chain are nearly uniform in the mid 70s this hour.

Meanwhile, a ridge out across the Atlantic will nudge back to the west today. This will help to slowly pivot and push the stationary boundary northward, while increasing low level moisture and freshening easterly breezes. As we go through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, this low level moisture will continue to increase and pool over the Keys. This will lead to increasing rain and thunder chances in the short term. Rainfall totals during this period will likely exceed one inch, which while not a lot, will help to make a dent in our ongoing moderate drought conditions. In addition, we continue to monitor conditions on Sunday, where a combination of veering winds and increasing instability may lead to a couple of strong storms.

The active weather pattern will persist through much of next week thanks to a series of upper level weather systems that will dive south across the eastern half of the U.S. This will likely drive a couple of fronts through our area starting Tuesday. Although these are considered "late-season" cold fronts, we could still see relatively cooler conditions filter in next week. Rain and thunder chances will remain fairly high through the extended forecast with more chances to see beneficial rainfall amounts.

MARINE

Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 East winds were currently easterly around 10 knots or less, with seas at Satan Shoal measured at about 1.5 feet predominately from the south southwest. Surface high pressure, combined with a stationary front drifting near or over the island chain will continue to dictate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys through this weekend. Expect freshening east to southeast breezes with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Another, more significant frontal system will begin to make its way towards the Keys early next week. This will lead to southeast breezes clocking around the compass, then freshening out of the northwest to north by early Tuesday. Fresh to strong breezes are becoming increasingly likely following the front during the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Vicinity showers were added for the balance of the afternoon and early evening due to cloud line activity over the Lower Keys and scattered showers nearing the eastern vicinity of KMTH. Winds were still light early this afternoon but were veering more easterly. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to wax and wane in coverage overnight with timing difficult to pin down for the 18Z TAFs, some TEMPOs may be required later this afternoon and overnight for IFR visibilities in heavy showers and MVFR ceilings. Of higher confidence will be the veering of winds out of the southeast tonight with speeds increasing to 10 to 13 knots by 15/12Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 76 84 75 84 / 50 60 50 50 Marathon 76 82 76 83 / 50 60 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.