textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease across the western Florida Straits and Southeast Gulf waters.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated today followed by diminishing rain chances thereafter.

- Dry conditions quickly return for tonight and continue through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 A busy radar morning as a mid/upper level trough moves through the Keys area, though as of now, most of the activity is to the west and south of the island chain. Skies are mostly cloudy for a majority of the island chain though temperatures were have been able to warm to the lower 80s. Along the Reef, easterly winds are 10 to 15 knots. As the day progresses, convection associated with the trough will slowly move east towards the island chain. These slow moving showers will have potential to bring heavy rainfall if they are able to hold their strength to make it. Late this afternoon cells will weaken and pose less of a threat to our waters resulting in a decrease in rain chances for the tonight period. Winds will remain easterly at 10 to 15 knots and slightly decrease to near 10 knots later this afternoon.

FORECAST

The main story for the next 12 hours will be determining exactly what the backside of this upper level shortwave trough does as it pivots through the Keys. Latest guidance suggests showers and thunderstorms expanding in coverage this morning (around daybreak or slightly after). There are some indications for this activity to be slow moving with whatever does develop. Therefore, there is the potential for some locally heavy rainfall wherever any showers and thunderstorms move over. Also, this could very well end up over the marine area sparing the Island Chain communities. The best chance time for showers and thunderstorms appears to be between 24/12z and 25/00z as of now. All of the ingredients remain in place for this to be a potentially wet day for some locations. We have the instability, trigger (upper level shortwave trough) and the moisture. Any shower and storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Based on the latest hi-res model trends, we decided to raise the rain chances to 50% for today and that may very well end up too high or too low depending on how the day pans out. Once we get to late Friday afternoon/evening, this shortwave trough will be well on its way to the Bahamas allowing the Keys to begin to clear out.

Upper level heights remain expected to rise over the weekend into the middle part of next week as the aforementioned shortwave trough moves away from the region. This will leave the Keys in northwesterly flow aloft for several days. At the surface, high pressure will remain dominant under generally weak flow. Therefore, expect warming temperatures with highs in the mid 80s with some indications for upper 80s in some locations. Also, anticipate rising dew points and increasing humidity. Nil rain chances remain for now due to dry air lingering across the area.

MARINE

Issued at 1146 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will slowly crawl away from the area, and breezes will continue to gradually slacken through tonight. Weak high pressure will maintain control over the weekend, and into early next week, promoting light to gentle breezes.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Convection moving into the area will possibly bring bouts of MVFR or IFR conditions which TEMPOS will be included for at that time if needed. Outside of convection, near surface winds will be easterly at near 10 knots.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.