textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal conditions will exist for a potential reverse cloud line across the island chain this afternoon.

- A wetter pattern is setting up, and chances for rain and thunder will increase through the weekend and into the start of next week. There is a potential for a couple of strong thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts the main threat Sunday and Sunday night.

- Breezy to windy conditions may develop as early as Tuesday, and are expected to continue through most of the week. - Moderate drought conditions will persist for the entire island chain, however, beneficial rains will lead to improving conditions next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Surface wind analysis this morning indicates the strationary front has made little net progress northward from the Straits, despite just enough south to southwest steering flow for scattered showers to drift northward along several narrow cumulus cloud bands. The middle Keys finally has received a little rainfall on the east side of Marathon with several spots in the Upper Keys picking up rain early this morning.

The morning sounding showed little change in total moisture - 700 mb and below - from last evening with a slightly lower and weaker subsidence layer just above. Inhibition is quite week at least up through 10-15K feet. Convective temperautures estimated near 80F should be easy to reach with short-duration cellular showers developing in the Straits and nearshore waters of the Keys, drifting north or northeast, and redeveloping in similar spots. As temperatures warm in the 80s, there is an opportunity for midday showers popping up in the Lower Keys as well. The chance category rain probability looks in order today, and with maximum convective potential energy above 2K J/kg, some lightning strikes will be possible this afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A stationary front has settled across the Florida Keys and has led to broken lines of showers developing. This first round mainly affected the Middle and Upper Keys, with most of the accumulation occurring in the Middle Keys. The presence of the stationary front is also through our winds into chaos. East of the front, winds are southerly, while west of the front, winds are northerly. True to it's namesake, temperatures across the island chain are nearly uniform in the mid 70s this hour.

Meanwhile, a ridge out across the Atlantic will nudge back to the west today. This will help to slowly pivot and push the stationary boundary northward, while increasing low level moisture and freshening easterly breezes. As we go through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, this low level moisture will continue to increase and pool over the Keys. This will lead to increasing rain and thunder chances in the short term. Rainfall totals during this period will likely exceed one inch, which while not a lot, will help to make a dent in our ongoing moderate drought conditions. In addition, we continue to monitor conditions on Sunday, where a combination of veering winds and increasing instability may lead to a couple of strong storms.

The active weather pattern will persist through much of next week thanks to a series of upper level weather systems that will dive south across the eastern half of the U.S. This will likely drive a couple of fronts through our area starting Tuesday. Although these are considered "late-season" cold fronts, we could still see relatively cooler conditions filter in next week. Rain and thunder chances will remain fairly high through the extended forecast with more chances to see beneficial rainfall amounts.

MARINE

Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

This morning, winds were from the northeast near or just under 10 knots with seas measured at Satan Shoal just over 1 foot and predominately from the southwest. High pressure nosing in from the east will lead to gradually freshening east to southeast breezes beginning later this afternoon. As the western flank of the high settles across the Keys, expect peak and lulls in winds through Monday. Moderate to fresh breezes can be expected at night, then lull to gentle to moderate during the day. We continue to monitor for the potential of a late-season cold front on Tuesday. Freshening northerly breezes can be expected in the wake of the front. A re-inforcing strong high moving in behind the front will have the potential to result in a prolonged period of fresh to occasionally strong breezes.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 Vicinity showers were inserted a little early for KMTH, otherwise monitoring for a similar addition for KEYW midday through afternoon. Surface winds look to hang in a couple more hours from the northeast at light speeds before veering easterly early this afternoon and southeast overnight. Speeds are likely to remain under 10 knots outside of any showers until Sunday morning.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.