textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming and moistening trend expected through the end of the week, with temperatures reaching to near or slightly above normal late in the week.

- Light to gentle breezes will slowly shift east to southeast overnight, then gradually freshen through the remainder of the week. - Slight rain chances will begin late in the work week. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

MARINE

Issued at 1251 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Mostly light to gentle breezes will gradually freshen this evening as a ridge across the Atlantic slowly builds westward across Florida and the Gulf Basin. Strongest breezes will be concentrated across the Straits of Florida, where a brief period of moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will be possible tonight. Thereafter, the ridge will slide further east through the end of the week. This will allow for a wider swath of east to southeasterlies move across our waters. A new weather system will begin taking shape along the extreme northeast Gulf waters which will act to weaken the ridge and bifurcate it into two cells. This will allow for winds to back to the northeast to east as a result.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions expected. Northeast winds continue for both island terminals this afternoon but easterlies are nudging in and by the afternoon and evening we will have an east wind for both EYW and MTH. Winds will continue to veer towards the southeast by Thursday morning. As this occurs, we could see a narrow band of showers develop across the southwestern Straits of Florida and pivot northeast towards the EYW terminal. Confidence is low on shower formation and subsequent effects, if any.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

Its been a very cold stretch for the Keys. The record minimum high at Marathon was 60 degrees, shattering the old record of 66 degrees dating back to 1973. Earlier in the night, radiational cooling drove temperatures at the office down to 46 degrees. The early radiational cooling was fostered by clear skies and a very cold high centered across the Florida Peninsula. This resulted in nearly calm breezes. In recent hours, light divergent northerly breezes have setup. While gulf and bay waters are cold, they still helped to wash out most of the radiational cooling. Temperatures are now broadly in the lower 50s. Dew points are still down in the lower 40s.

The ridge across Florida will elongate eastward into the Atlantic over the next couple of days, while the western flank lifts northward into Central Florida. This should help to firm up breezes out of the east to southeast from late today into tonight. The huge unknown is how soon winds across the Keys and cooler nearshore waters will be able to veer east. Eventually this shift will happen and help to accelerate moderating temperatures and moisture. At least for today, it will likely be difficult for temperatures to push into the 70s for many locations. As a result, highs will likely range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dew points will slowly climb as the boundary layer breezes gradually clocks southeast to south. Some organized veering is expected, and the first hints of this is showing up as stratocumulus over southern South Florida and the Upper Keys, well to the northwest of the land breeze. Expect additional stratocumulus to spread northwestward across the Keys due to this veering flow.

Through the remainder of the week rain chances will slowly make their appearance. This is due to a shortwave trough riding around the longwave pattern over the eastern United States. This will set up a confluent zone in the eastern Gulf and Florida. This will also eventually erase the subsidence inversion as zonal mid and upper levels transition to broad troughing. Dew points will also climb towards 70 by late in the week and temperatures will climb to slightly above normal. All this should support a few showers. For now, will keep rain chances caped at slight as the forcing is not strong and lower to mid level dry air and Cuban influences will be a mitigating factor. Winds will remain broadly easterly and trend downwards as the surface ridge finally departs to the east.

No significant airmass change or cold front is expected through the extended. Guidance has been pointing to possibly a backdoor cold front limping through the area early next week. This may only act to bump up northeast to easterly breezes and shave a degree or two off of both temperatures and dew points. The faster flow may be supportive of a few showers in the moderated maritime boundary layer.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 67 79 70 81 / 10 10 20 10 Marathon 67 79 71 81 / 0 10 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.