textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until wind decrease across all the Florida Keys coastal waters.

- Breezes will once again freshen Friday through early next week, with another period of windy and hazardous marine conditions for the Keys.

- Seasonal king tides combined with northeasterly winds will lead to coastal flooding through early next week, with the greatest impacts in the Upper Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled a strongly inhibited low- level environment, characterized by minimal moisture above the 900 mb isobaric surface, along with an thermodynamically stable temperature profile throughout the troposphere. GOES-19 visible satellite imagery highlight clear skies in the lee of the Florida Peninsula, with local available Doppler radars only dedicated a few isolated showers in the easternmost Straits of Florida off the Upper Keys. Temperatures are slow to rise with lose cool advection continuing, only in the mid to upper 70s at this mid- morning hour.

For the balance of today, expect mostly sunny skies, near-nil rain chances, slowly slackening breezes as high pressure over New England continues to wane, and temperatures rising to the lower 80s. No changes proposed to the inherited short-term forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines posted for all Keys coastal waters until winds decrease later this morning and afternoon. A Coastal Flood Advisory is also in effect for the Upper Keys, with a Coastal Flood Statement in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially around the times of high tide.

A strong area of low pressure off the Mid- Atlantic will slowly progress northeastward today. This will support slowly slackening breezes. A weak high pressure system centered over the Northern Plains will progress eastward and strengthen over the next several days. Meanwhile, a broad low pressure system will fester near the southeastern Bahamas late Friday through the weekend. The resulting tightening pressure gradient as these systems interact will support strong to potentially near gale northeasterly breezes by Sunday or Sunday night. The freshening breezes and a surge of moisture will also support elevated rain and thunder chances over the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 915 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026 Although a light passing shower cannot be ruled out in the vicinity of the terminals through the TAF period, impacts to visibilities and ceilings will be minimal. Near-surface winds out of the northeast will gradually slacken, with gusts 18 to 20 knots becoming much less frequent after 18z today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 84 75 83 74 / 0 10 10 20 Marathon 84 74 83 73 / 0 0 10 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ076.

GM...None.