textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours with little relief during the overnight periods. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds through the weekend.

- Confidence continues to increase for a potentially wet and thundery period through the middle to latter part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026 Persistence continues to be the most apt word to describe weather across the Florida Keys. A pronounced Atlantic surface high is set up east of Maine. This allowed moderate to fresh east southeasterly breezes to develop over the nearshore waters, even when one discounts the evening surge in winds. The southeasterlies continue to bring an ample amount of moisture to the Florida Keys, but once again that moisture is trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Dew points across the Keys are in the mid 70s with evening temperatures struggling to drop below 80 F. The 00Z KKEY sounding sampled an environment with a PWAT above the 90th percentile for the year, and a significant amount of measurable CAPE. Despite the muggy conditions, GOES-East satellite observations and the KAMX radar are detecting minimal cloud cover across the Florida Keys. Surface ridging and weakly sinking air in the upper atmosphere are acting to limit shower activity. What does this mean for tonight's weather? Breezes are on track to gradually trend upward, which could provide a short lived source of lift for showers. However, the lack of organized showers in CAMS runs means there is low confidence in widespread shower coverage. Tonight shows all signs of being another warm and humid night across the Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for the waters of Florida Bay, the Bayside and Gulfside waters, Hawk Channel, and the Florida Straits. From synopsis, a well developed Atlantic high pressure system will support gentle to moderate to fresh east southeasterly breezes tonight. A second high pressure system will reinforce the first on tomorrow, supporting fresh east to southeast breezes through Tuesday night. Breezes will noticeably slacken and veer to the southeast to south as the high slides eastward and weakens by mid- week. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase starting in the middle of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat May 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Occasional showers are possible near the terminals, but cloud cover is on track to remain minimal. Expect a very gradual increase in wind speeds with occasional gusts possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 90 81 91 / 30 20 30 20 Marathon 80 87 80 87 / 30 30 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.