textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- High uncertainty remains regarding the wind forecast. Winds will generally be gentle to moderate out of the northeast to east. However, large swings both up and down will be possible. - Well above normal rain and thunder chances will continue over the next couple of days.

- Increased cloud cover and convective coverage will help to keep temperatures closer to near normal levels over the next few days days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

An expansive surface high over the eastern United States extends southwards past the Keys and is driving gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys this morning. A nearly cut off trough off aligned just off the Atlantic Coast as resulted in cyclogenesis that has lifted north off of the mid Atlantic. The associated lower level trough just abouts makes it to South Florida and the Keys. At the same time, there is a hint of some upper level support due to both the mid latitude trough and a weak southern stream trough aligned near the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, deep layered moisture remains very high. Last evenings sounding indicated a precipitable water of about 2.26 inches, well above seasonal norms. The environment is essentially uncapped with modest CAPE. Altogether, this is resulting in a continued wet period for the Keys. Over the past 24 hours, nearly all island locations saw at least a quarter of an inch of rain with a few spots seeing 2 to 3 inches in a 24 hour period.

Over the next couple of days the combination of the eastern United States high and a surface trough over the central Gulf will keep winds gentle to moderate across the Keys. Deep layered moisture will remain quite elevated, with inhibition remaining low with moderate CAPE. As a result shower chances will remain well above normal with a chance for thunderstorms. Wind surges will continue to be possible, but probably not as strong as what we saw last evening. Will maintain likely to categorical PoPs for today through tomorrow. The continued increased cloud cover and convective activity should help to keep temperatures down near or slightly below normal with dew points holding in the lower to mid 70s.

Head into the weekend, mid to upper level ridging building northeastward across the Gulf will link with ridging driving eastward across the southeastern States. This will gradually push in much drier air through the mid and upper levels, and eventually the lower levels. Meanwhile, the eastern United States surface high will move southeastward off the Carolina Coast on Friday and then eastward out into the Atlantic over the following few days. This should allow easterly breezes to trend downwards slightly. There is still some uncertainty due to broad troughing expected to setup across Cuba in this time frame. Expect rain chances to fall closer to normal with temperatures climbing back above normal. Dew points should remain in the mid 70s.

Through early next week, deep layered ridging will hang on across out region with surface ridging setting up across the southeastern United States. While the fine details imparted by the previously mentioned weak troughing across Cuba will keep some measure of uncertainty, in general winds will be light to gentle broadly out of the southeast. Elevated lower level moisture will continue to harass the region through this period. Expect slight to low chance for precipitation and a few thunderstorms will remain possible.

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Expansive high pressure building southeastward into our area will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes over the next few days. A very disturbed environment may result in periodic wind surges into moderate to fresh range. Winds should gradually trend downwards this weekend, however, uncertainty continues to be high.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A wet weather pattern remains across the Keys today. As a result, periods of MVFR and even IFR conditions, along with gusty winds will be possible. Away from convection, winds will generally be gentle to moderate out of the east.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.