textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding in the Upper Keys and minor to moderate coastal flooding in the Lower to Middle Keys is ongoing, especially around high tide.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through early next week. Near-gale wind gusts will be possible at times Sunday evening through Monday evening, especially SE Gulf. - Little to no relief from significant coastal and marine impacts are expected into at least the middle of next week. Residents and visitors should take the necessary actions to protect flood- prone property.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 947 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 It's been a pleasant evening across the Florida Keys with current temperature readings in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. We're situated on the dry side of mid to upper-level troughing which is becoming somewhat cutoff over the Bahamas. Weak lobes of low-level vorticity are rotating around the trough axis and generating a few shallow showers across our waters this evening amidst ~15-20kts of low-level flow, but the 00Z KKEY RAOB measured deep layers of very dry air throughout the tropospheric column with only a shallow saturated layer around 825mb. Satellite observations show a region of higher moisture propagating southwest along the east coast of Florida where the radar is much more active tonight. Model guidance suggests this moisture plume will arrive across our forecast area tomorrow while we continue to be grazed by spokes of vorticity on the western side of the trough axis. While the forecast calls for mostly rain free conditions tonight outside of a brief shower here and there, Chance PoPs still seem reasonable for tomorrow given the return of a more favorable environment for precip. Any heavy rain that occurs along the island chain during high tide could result in compounding flood issues given the ongoing King Tide coastal flooding, but fortunately quick cell motions (~20- 25 kts) should help to limit that concern.

Meanwhile, the pressure gradient is strengthening as flow over the Keys is becoming increasingly pinched in between a sprawling anticyclone encompassing the Eastern CONUS and the region of stagnant troughing over the Caribbean. Winds have recently began increasing again as we transition from a daytime lull back into an overnight peak, and therefore the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones.

MARINE

Issued at 947 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. From synopsis, high pressure over the eastern United States and a weak low northeast of the Bahamas will sustain fresh to strong breezes through the weekend and early next week. Peak breezes are expected on Sunday night through Tuesday in which near gale wind gusts will be possible over the Outer Gulf waters. Freshening breezes and pulses of low level moisture may support elevated shower chances on Sunday night and Monday. Breezes are on track to slacken to moderate to fresh by midweek.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 733 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 VFR conditions are set to prevail as dry air over the Keys will limit precip chances at both TAF sites tonight, but the enhanced pressure gradient will result in breezy north to northeasterly winds with occasional gusts of 20-22 kts. A pocket of higher moisture content will rotate across the area tomorrow which may be enough to generate some scattered vicinity showers around 19Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 74 83 75 84 / 10 30 40 40 Marathon 74 83 75 84 / 10 40 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.