textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Tidal levels have subsided enough that Coastal Flood Statements have ended. However, localized ponding of saltwater will remain possible during times of high tide across the Florida Keys.

- Rain chances will be slight at best today and tonight and gradually increase Thursday ahead of an approaching front. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, and will open the door for a period of breezy to windy conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 434 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

High pressure that was over the Southeastern U.S. has moved offshore and is now just north of the Bahamas. This has allowed for more of a southeast trajectory across the region this morning. This has also allowed for somewhat better moisture to pivot back into the area. However, without substantial lift, showers have been limited to the distant westerns Straits of Florida and the extreme northern end of the Upper Keys. At this hour, we remain mild with most island communities sitting around 80 degrees. We failed to drop below 80 degrees prior to midnight at the Key West Airport and as such tied a daily Warm Minimum Temperature record. As it stands, we are on par to do it again if we do not fall below 80 degrees tonight prior to midnight.

To our north lies a broad, weak surface trough across north- central Florida. As the day progresses, this trough will gradually strengthen into a weak frontal boundary and begin slowly sagging southward. Given our position between a fleeting high and this soon to be frontal boundary, the best lift and moisture should sit just north of the island chain today. Therefore, only expecting slight chances for precipitation for island communities, with higher chances across the Southeast Gulf waters. By tonight as lift increases with the incoming boundary, combined with instability may be enough for a few isolated thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 434 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

High pressure center northeast of the Bahamas will move further to the east and away from the Florida Keys coastal waters today. This will allow for breezes to gradually slacken through the day. At the same time, a weak surface trough lies across north-central Florida and across the eastern Gulf Basin. This feature will gradually strengthen into a frontal boundary and begin moving south this evening. As it does, expect breezes to initially go light and variable and slowly become more south to southwest towards dawn on Thursday. This first front is a bit weaker than in days prior. With that being said we anticipate freshening west to northwest breezes ahead of and behind the frontal passage. However, the peak strength will be short lived and expecting breezes to slacken Saturday into Sunday. A secondary front will sweep through early next week with the potential for a prolonged period of fresh to strong breezes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 434 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions expected today. Some isolated showers may develop in-situ of the terminals this morning around sunrise, however, confidence is too low to include mentions at this time. Shower and possible thunderstorm development will lift to the north of the island chain by the late morning and early afternoon. Otherwise, near surface winds will gradually weaken and become light and variable by this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 84 76 83 75 / 10 10 30 30 Marathon 84 77 83 75 / 10 10 20 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.