textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Low rain chances, along with warmer conditions expected tonight. - Light to gentle breezes will prevail overnight.

- The next cold front is scheduled to push through the Florida Keys on Thursday afternoon or evening, bringing with it cooler. - Breezes will increase sharply Thursday afternoon following the cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 858 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Winds are light and broadly northeasterly across the Keys this evening. This is due to an Atlantic ridge retreating further eastward into the Atlantic and a prefrontal trough moving into the far southeastern United States and northeastern Gulf. Considerable moderation has taken place along the Keys over the past 24 to 36 hours and temperatures are now broadly in the mid 60s with dew points near 60. This evening sounding indicated precipitable water has climbed to near one inch with substantial low level veering remaining. This veering continues to support considerable stratocumulus across the Keys. While strong inhibition was seen around 800 mb, scattered low topped showers have recently sprung up across portions of the Florida Straits south of the lingering South Florida convergence boundary.

The Atlantic ridge while retreat further eastward and away from the Bahamas overnight as the prefrontal trough presses further southeastward into the Florida Peninsula. As a result, pressure gradients across our area will remain weak and keep breezes light, gradually becoming broadly westerly. Forecast soundings suggest the strong veering will fall apart overnight, giving way to modest backing. This may help to diminish cloud cover somewhat. However, dew points will likely pick up a degree or two, resulting in limited radiational cooling potential. Expect lows to struggle to reach near 60 with vanishing dew point depressions. As a result, a soggy morning is on tap. The exception to this may be portions of the Upper Keys, where a weak land breeze may help to push temperatures into the upper 50s with dew points in the mid 50s. Forcing for shower activity is expected to diminish overnight due to the nebulous flow and weakening veering. Even so, a few showers cannot be ruled out due to fairly high inhibition based around 800 mb.

Looking ahead to Thursday, a strong cold front will race southeastward across the Keys Thursday afternoon and evening. There will be a chance for showers ahead of the front. In wake of this front, northwesterly breezes will surge considerably. Expect windy conditions to quickly build in. Breezes are expected to peak in the 20 to 25 mph range Thursday evening. Marine winds should peak slightly below Gale Warning criteria. While not as cold as the previous historic cold front, sharply cooler air will pour in across the Keys Thursday night. Lows that night will range from the mid 50s to mid 40s, with the coolest temperatures in the lee of South Florida.

MARINE

Issued at 858 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

A nebulous pressure field stretching across South Florida and the Keys is resulting in light mostly northeasterly breezes this evening. Expect the pressure gradients to remain weak overnight as a strong cold front advances southeastward across the Gulf. For the remainder of the overnight period, light to gentle breezes will gradually become predominantly westerly.

The strong cold front is expected to race southeastward through Keys waters from Thursday through Thursday evening. In wake of the front, winds are expected to surge to 25 to 30 knots. A few hours of near 30 knots are possible. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for our deep Gulf zones by late morning, and all waters by late afternoon. Breezes should moderate considerably on Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 858 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. There will be a slight chance of showers at the terminals, possibly accompanied by a round of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be light out of the north to northeast, becoming west.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.