textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle, occasionally moderate southeasterly breezes will become southeast to south overnight and then gradually slacken Monday morning.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through around mid week. Rain chances will remain slightly below seasonable levels (10-20%), with the warm and muggy conditions continuing.

- A weak Saharan Air Layer is on track to move over the Florida Keys early this week and diminish shower coverage. Heat indices may creep towards 110 around mid week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The 00z evening sounding once again is quite unstable tonight, though we can probably almost classify it as extremely unstable. The CAPE value measured was an astonishing 3558 J/kg which is incredible instability and most likely why we are seeing virtually every shower tonight becoming a thunderstorm. The cells are just feeding off the instability. Moisture also remains quite high with a PWAT value measured of 2.02 inches which is a little below the 90th percentile for the date. The wind profile shows mainly southeast winds backing to easterly with speeds of 5 to 10 knots. Overall, we have all the ingredients (moisture, instability, and trigger) on the table for shower and thunderstorm activity to continue through the overnight. Therefore, no changes to the ongoing forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle, occasionally moderate, breezes will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Breezes are expected to shift between easterly and southerly during the week as the western edge of the Atlantic high wobbles across Southern Florida. Shower coverage will wax and wane between slight and a chance through the first half of the week before a weak Saharan Air Layer moves over Southern Florida.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain southeast to south through the period becoming easterly Monday evening. There remains the risk for showers and thunderstorms through the period. However, due to the uncertainty in timing and exact placement of any activity, VCSH was left out of the TAF for now.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 84 / 20 10 30 10 Marathon 89 83 90 84 / 30 20 30 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.