textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light and variable winds will become southeast and freshen overnight.

- A more active weather pattern develops by early next week with higher rain chances and increasing southeasterly winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1114 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

We have had isolated pockets of convection break out throughout the afternoon and evening. One batch developed from a small weak cloud line that developed over the Lower and Middle Keys. Another batch was lingering across the Straits of Florida from earlier in the day. Lastly, convection developed across the mainalnd and slowly pushed south out across the Florida Bay, Upper Keys, and Hawk Channel waters. The stronger activity was the batch that came off the mainland and had quite a bit of lightning with it. In addition, these showers and storms dropped up to an inch of rainfall, mainly across the mangroves and Sounds.

For the rest of the overnight, we are expecting winds to abruptly switch out of the southeast and freshen somewhat. As this wind shift occurs, there will be a narrow ribbon of moisture accompanying along. Most models have been eager to spark new convection as this passes through around dawn, though the window of opportunity will be small. In addition, shortly after the moisture arrives, winds go more southerly, which is not a favorable wind direction to get daytime convection. The best coverage may lie across the waters north of the island chain.

MARINE

Issued at 1114 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Light and variable winds will decidedly become southeast during the overnight and freshen to light to gentle breezes. Light to gentle breezes will continue into early next week with some occasional periods of gentle to moderate. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by next week as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. As chances for showers and thunderstorms increase next week, mariners can expect higher winds and seas near this activity.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1114 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions expect to be the predominant through the overnight. Watching for new convection to develop as winds go southeast towards dawn on Sunday. The window of opportunity for showers and thunderstorms looks to be rather small and this activity may not develop until after lifting north of the island chain. Therefore, have put a PROB30 in for both terminals primarily between 08-12Z Sunday.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.