textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal rain chances (around 60-70%) will persist across the Florida Keys through the weekend and possibly into early next week.

- Heavy rainfall is becoming increasingly likely. Most locations in the Keys can generally expect 2 to 4 inches of rainfall through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible.

- Gentle to moderate (10 to 15 mph) breezes will relax by Friday. While breezes will then be light to gentle (5 to 10 mph) through the weekend, gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1035 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The afternoon was way more active than 24 hours ago. Unlike yesterday, convection sprouted across western and southwestern Florida during the afternoon and surged west southwest across the extreme Southeast Gulf waters. Many of these storms retained their strength as the entered our waters and produced strong gusty winds and loads of lightning. An outflow boundary sagged south from these showers and storms and interacted with a late day cloud line that fired across the Lower Keys. This gave a brief uptick in activity for the Lower Keys and points westward out towards Halfmoon Shoal Light.

Once the initial boundary collisions were worked over, convection quickly dwindled. There was a brief "lull" where hardly any showers or thunderstorms were in our CWA. However, recently, within the last hour we are beginning to see signs that the atmosphere may be trying to come back to life. Therefore, will keep likely PoPs through the overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1035 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

From synopsis: gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will prevail through Thursday, as a ridge continues to build southward over the eastern United States. Winds will then slacken and shift east to southeast through the remainder of the week, as the high weakens and slips into the western North Atlantic. A wet pattern will persist across Keys coastal waters through Sunday, as an upper- level low retrogrades westward towards the Florida Keys.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions can be expected outside of any passing convection. Given the fast and relatively small size of these showers, IFR or LIFR conditions will be brief. While there may be some quieter periods than others, a generally moist and unstable environment will allow for above normal rain/thunder chances through the next 24 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 91 80 91 / 60 60 60 60 Marathon 81 89 81 88 / 60 60 60 60

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.