textproduct: Key West

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong high pressure over the central North Atlantic will remain through the rest of the week into the weekend, supporting an extended period of relatively unremarkable weather. - Moderate to fresh breezes will wax and wane the rest of the week, generally peaking during the overnight hours and lulling in the afternoons. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for portions of Keys waters, and Advisories are also possible for the Florida Straits. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers.

FORECAST

The forecast for the next week or more will continue to be dominated by high pressure across the North Atlantic. The Keys will mostly remain on the southwestern periphery of the high with moderate to fresh breezes continuing through the period. This will keep a prolonged period of breezy conditions for the Island Chain. Moisture will ebb and flow through the period with some periods having higher rain chances than others. Latest guidance will need to be watched for Thursday night through the weekend for a potential uptick to the rain chances as an upper level shortwave lifts northward from Cuba towards the Keys. It remains to be seen exactly how wet it potentially may get from this wave, but adding in some upper level support could lead to more robust shower activity. There could even be potentially some thunderstorms, especially across the marine area over the weekend. This will continue to be monitored. There is even the outside chance for thunder tonight and Thursday, but this is low confidence and left out of the forecast for now. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the period with daytime highs in the lower 80s and overnight lows in the lower 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution is headlined across all the Florida Keys coastal waters, except for the SE Gulf. From synopsis, a large and robust high remains centered over the central North Atlantic. This will continue to promote a prolonged period of moderate to fresh breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Winds will be strongest across the Florida Straits and weakest over the cooler Gulf side waters.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026 While VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period, occasional observations of MVFR CIGs will be possible through 17Z. Low level moisture will support a mix of isolated showers and SCT to BKN skies, but weather conditions capable of producing extended periods of impacts are not expected. Easterly surface winds near 10 knots will continue to gust to 15 to 20 knots.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1980, the daily record low temperature of 49F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 73 82 73 / 10 20 20 20 Marathon 82 73 82 73 / 10 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.

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