textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes are expected overnight into Tuesday morning before slackening to light to gentle breezes for mid to late week.

- A Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will remain over the region for the next several days. This will act to keep near nil rain chances for much of the week, perhaps slight chances at best.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue for much of the week with not much relief overnight. Remember to stay hydrated and take breaks.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The 00z evening sounding shows an unstable profile especially below the inversion around 825 mb. Above this layer, the Saharan Air Layer is in full effect with plenty of dry air and stable atmospheric column. Instability remains quite high with CAPE values measuring between 3200-3600 J/kg. The PWAT value measured was 1.54 inches which is right at the 10th percentile for the date. The wind profile remains unidirectional out of the east between 15 to 20 knots in the lowest 3000 ft. Based on the above, any shower that do try and develop tonight will quickly entrain dry air as they try to grow vertically. However, due to the instability being so high, the potential for one of these to grow tall enough to produce lightning remains plausible, especially over the marine area. Therefore, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast with slight chance (10%) remaining.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, ridging across northern Florida will steadily shift southwards into Central and South Florida over the next few days. Gentle to moderate breezes will gradually trend downwards to a light to gentle breeze through this period. Winds are expected to freshen late in the week and over the start of the weekend as the ridge lifts back into northern Florida and a broad lower level trough moves westward across our area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals. Rain chances remain slight to near nil as a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains dominant across the Keys. Near surface winds will remain mainly easterly, occasionally becoming east to southeast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 83 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 90 84 90 84 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.