textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will prevail through tonight.

-Sunshine will continue to struggle to make a meaningful appearance due to lingering cloud cover.

-Next cold front sweeps through on Monday with another round of breezy conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 303 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, but occasional instances of MVFR or IFR conditions are possible at MTH until approximately 01Z due to moderate showers in the area. Beyond 01Z, this activity should retreat farther away, and VFR conditions will remain in place. Northeasterly surface winds near 10 knots this evening will back to the north overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1024 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 If you are looking for some Florida sunshine, we are sorry to report that we are currently out of stock. GOES-19 Visible imagery shows widespread, patchy cloud cover across the area. Even though there are some breaks in the clouds, the automated observations at both Key West and Marathon International Airports are reporting scattered to broken cloud cover. This lines up with our 12Z KKEY sounding from this morning where the air closest to saturation was located between approximately 7000 and 9000 feet above the surface. Even though there seems to be a lot of dry air on the sounding, our KBYX radar is still showing a line of disorganized showers stretched across the waters to the south of the island chain as well as the Lower and Middle Keys. Radar derived echo tops show the tallest showers reaching between 15,000 and 20,000 feet, which is surprising considering the very dry air above 10,000 feet. CIMSS MIMIC Layer PWAT does show an area of higher values, approximately 1.5 inches of PWAT, in the area where these showers are occurring. It is possible that the radiosonde launched this morning took a drier track, and did not capture the relatively deeper moisture. Considering the lack of diminishing we are seeing on radar, the inherited slight chance PoPs for today seem reasonable. A few island communities may see some sprinkles throughout the rest of the day, but significant rainfall is unlikely (less than 15% chance of flooding rain).

Outside of this shower activity, surface observations show temperatures in the mid 70s for most island communities. The cloud cover should keep temperatures from coming up much more than this. The current forecast package is unfolding as expected, so no changes or updates are needed at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1024 AM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will continue today, but an upper level weather system currently over the Mississippi Valley will track east southeast, and will likely freshen winds as an associated front surges across the region sometime Monday and Tuesday. Thereafter, the next ridge will build in and breezes will slacken.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 75 81 71 80 / 30 10 10 0 Marathon 74 80 70 79 / 30 10 10 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.