textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Heavy rainfall is possible at times tonight. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday morning.
- Rain chances will increase further by the middle of the week as tropical moisture spreads into the area.
- Drier air associated with a cold front will arrive late week and into the weekend will bring a lower risk of excessive rainfall, though some rain chances will linger.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 926 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026
An unusual broad upper trough blankets the Gulf of America, while a surface through lower level trough is aligned in the southeastern Gulf, across the Florida Peninsula and out into the Atlantic. This is making for an overall wetter than normal pattern as it has planted a wide band of increased lower level moisture across the Keys. This evenings sounding indicated precipitable water of around 2.1 inches modest CAPE, and minimal inhibition. A number of clusters of showers and thunderstorms have worked their way across the Keys and its waters through the afternoon and evening.
No significant shift in the synoptic setup is expected through the overnight period. As a result, the Keys will remain with a broad zone conducive for shower and thunderstorm formation. Will maintain likely PoPs. The surface trough aligned to our northwest will maintain light to gentle southeast to southerly breezes. Expect overnight lows to be broadly near 80 with dew points remaining in the mid 70s.
MARINE
Issued at 926 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Broad troughing across the far southeastern Gulf and across the Florida Peninsula will result in gentle southeast to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters overnight. This trough will contribute to increased shower and thunderstorm coverage across the broader area.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 926 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026
A wet weather pattern persists across the area. As a result, a round or two of sub VFR conditions will be possible. Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the southeast to south.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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