textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes will prevail, peaking overnight and lulling during the day. - Near to below normal shower and thunder chances will prevail through Sunday and well into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The western phalanx of a deep layered Atlantic ridge stretches westward across northern Florida and Gulf. As a result, winds have become gentle to moderate easterlies. Drier air has spread across the area with last evenings sounding indicating a precipitable water of 1.48 inches, which is below the 10th percentile for the day. However, the environment is only weakly capped and CAPE is ample. This along with the moderate easterly steering flow has been supportive of isolated showers and thunderstorms across the area. Conditions have been seasonably warm with temperatures falling through the mid 80s and dew points meandering in the mid to upper 70s.

Through the duration of the weekend and well into next week the deep layered ridge will remain draped across Florida as it shifts southward into Central Florida. This will help to maintain below normal moisture and weak low level inhibition. This along with the background anticyclonic flow will keep rain chances slim to none. Easterly breezes will oscillate between gentle and moderate, performing the usual lulling during the day and peaking overnight. A slight decreasing trend in winds speeds will occur through the first half of the week as the ridge nudges southward. No trend in temperatures are expected and highs will remain near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will continue in the mid to upper 70s.

All that said, in the short term, a lower level inverted trough will drive westward across our area today into tonight. Precipitable water should climb closer to normal, in the 1.8 inch range. All together, this justifies holding low chance pops and slight thunder for this time period.

MARINE

Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

An Atlantic ridge will remain strung across Florida and the northern Gulf through the duration of the forecast. Surface winds will slacken to gentle to moderate during the day, and accelerate to moderate to fresh at night. A caution is becoming increasingly likely for portions of Keys waters tonight. Thereafter winds will trend slightly downwards as the ridge shifts south into Central Florida.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the east to southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 83 / 30 30 20 10 Marathon 90 84 90 84 / 30 30 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.