textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Keys around the times of high tide.

- Rain chances will be at or below normal through mid week, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. - The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, with much cooler "sweater weather" possible in its wake through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 Composite upper-tropspheric analysis continues to highlight a split jet pattern across the CONUS, with the northern jetstream supporting a longwave trough near New England, and a ridge building across the Gulf south of the southern jetstream. At the surface, broad anticylonic flow continues across the Florida, as a sprawling high pressure system remains centered over the ARKLaTex region. Available land- and marine-based surface observations are sampling light to gentle east to southeast breezes across the area, supporting temperatures generally in the mid 80s at this early afternoon hour. KBYX Doppler radar is only detecting a few isolated showers dotting the Keys marine zones, with skies mostly sunny in most areas.

For the next several days, more of the same sensible weather conditions will continue, as the aforementioned high slowly slides eastward and eventually into the west-central Atlantic off the Bahamas. Highs in the mid 80s, lows in the upper 70s, and only slight rain chances expected for each period through Thursday. A series of shortwave troughs both from the southern and northern jet streams will reinvigorate an existing trough off New England Wednesday night through Thursday, with the trough eventually deepening and having large equatorward displacement towards the Florida Keys. This will drive the first strong cold front of the season through the Keys by Friday morning. Early indications (mainly via forecast soundings) suggest the frontal passage will be mainly dry, although a few pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms certainly cannot be ruled out.

Winds will quickly back to the northwest to north in the wake of the front, freshening by Friday evening. Friday will likely be a very raw day, with low stratus expected owed to the the very warm Florida Keys sea surface temperatures. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 70s on Friday. Although skies will generally begin to clear by Saturday, continued cool advection in the mean northerly breezes below normal, with highs in the mid 70s, and lows in the upper 60s. As a continental high slowly slides eastward by early next week, winds will clock around to the northeast, supporting a warming trend bringing temperatures back to normal.

MARINE

Issued at 1223 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Florida Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially around the times of high tide. Elsewhere, no watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect. From synopsis, a robust high pressure system over the Southeast United States will slide eastward over the next few days. As a result, light to gentle northeast to east breezes will shift to the east and modestly freshen early this week. As the high slides further southeastward into the west-central North Atlantic, breezes will clock around to the east to southeast slacken by mid week. A strong cold front is expected push through the Keys marine zones on Friday, with breezes backing to the northwest and freshening in its wake. Fresh to strong breezes will continue over the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026 Although a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out through 18z Tuesday afternoon, impacts to visibilities and ceilings will be minimal, with VFR conditions prevailing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 85 77 85 77 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 85 77 85 78 / 10 20 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.