textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal rain chances today will give way to closer to normal chances heading into the weekend.

- Gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes expected over the next few days. - Slightly below normal temperatures today will climb closer to normal this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 159 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Heavy rainfall is impacting EYW with a flood warning currently in effect until 1530L for rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches fallen and another 1 to 2 inches possible. TEMPO is included for limited visibilities, lower ceilings, and wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Conditions will begin to improve within the next hour or so an thereafter VCSH with VFR conditions will prevail. For MTH VCSH is included but nothing is directly impacting the terminal at this time.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 Deep layered ridging is steadily gaining more control of our area this morning as a mid latitude trough moves further away across the North Atlantic. An expansive surface high centered over the mid Atlantic states is maintaining moderate easterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. However, for the time being, deep layered moisture remains very high, with last evenings sounding depicted a nearly saturated sounding with a precipitable water of 2.16 inches. In addition, there may still be some faint upper level support between the departing mid latitude trough and another unusual trough to our southwest. Local radar continues to indicate isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms across our area, and a large stratiform shield just west our western zones. Surface dew points remain up in the mid 70s with drier air not too far off to the north.

Expect at least another day of well above normal rain chances due to the copious moisture in place, weak CAPE, and lack of inhibition. The previously mentioned surface high will become centered off the Carolina Coast today and maintain mostly moderate easterly breezes. Surface streamlines suggest that incoming air will be arriving from higher latitudes and should help to finally bring in some drier air. Dew points should dip for a short while into the lower 70s, and possibly a little lower later in the day.

Precipitation chances are expected to slide further towards normal heading into the weekend. Deep layered ridging will gain more dominance over our area. While the band of increased lower level moisture is expected to remain across our area, the mid and upper levels are expected to dry out significantly with developing lower to mid level inhibition. Surface winds will trend slowly downwards, becoming a gentle to moderate breeze. Dew points will trend back up into the mid 70s as the streamlines veer more easterly. In addition, increasing sunshine will push temperatures back up into the upper 80s.

Late this weekend and early next week, broad troughing is expected to move westward across the Bahamas and Cuba. Easterly breezes will slacken further as the northern fringes of this trough trough approaches, but may pick up modestly out of the east to southeast as it pushes west of the Keys. The more veered flow should help bump dew points up into the mid to upper 70s by mid week. Guidance suggests that the associated increase in lower level moisture and confluence will result in rain chances again climbing above normal. Uncertainty is high regarding where things go from here. Stay Tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, an expansive eastern United States surface high will move off the Carolina Coast today and then push out into the Atlantic over the next few days. As a result mostly moderate easterly breezes, will gradually give way to gentle to moderate easterlies this weekend. The recent bout of increased shower and thunderstorm activity is nearing its end, and convective potential will fall closer to normal through this period. Early next week the high will have pushed out into the Atlantic and weak troughing is expected to set up over Cuba and the Bahamas. This will tip breezes a bit further southeasterly with, initially, some additional slackening.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.