textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat risk remains moderate to major today through at least Tuesday. Dew points are expected to drop from the mid to low 70s by mid week.

- Chances for rainfall will remain low while dry air aloft lingers over the Florida Keys.

- A weak frontal boundary mid week may bring a round of short-lived showers and a break from southeasterly breezes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 Muggy weather continues across the Florida Keys. Dew points along the island chain in the early morning are measuring in the mid 70s with temperatures struggling to drop to near 80. Both the Key West International Airport and the Florida Keys Marathon International airport observed record warm lows yesterday, and that trend is unlikely to break today. A well developed upper level ridge over the Greater Antilles continues to induce sinking air aloft. At the same time, the Atlantic High is supporting light to gentle southeasterly breezes across the Keys. This pattern will take a few more days to break, which means moderate to major heat risk will continue this Sunday.

Relief from these muggy conditions may start Tuesday to Wednesday. A weak frontal boundary moving south across Florida would be able to bring the southeasterlies to an end and provide a source of lift for showers to develop. However, confidence is not high that widespread showers would be able to form. Statistical guidance for Key West does not suggest the chance of rain would increase above 30 percent, but the Upper Keys may get a bit more relief.

Current model ensembles suggest the frontal boundary could stall south of the Keys after mid week. In this regime, the Florida Keys would observe primarily northerly breezes and occasional showers. The merciful element to this regime is that northerlies would keep dew points just a little bit lower.

MARINE

Issued at 420 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys nearshore waters. From synopsis, light to gentle southeasterly breezes will continue through the start of the work week. Deep layers of dry air will keep shower and thunderstorm coverage low through the early part of the work week. A weak frontal boundary during the middle of the week may be able to somewhat increase rain chances. Expect periods of variable winds during the week as the influence of the Atlantic high wanes across the Florida Keys.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. Southeasterlies are on track to persist through the day with a gradual decrease in wind speeds from near 10 knots to 5 to 10 knots. Patches of cloud cover around FL020 are possible near the terminals, but not at coverage to warrant MVFR criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 81 91 81 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 88 81 87 81 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.