textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for all Keys waters by Saturday morning, persisting through at least early next week. Near-gale breezes will be possible at times Sunday evening through Monday evening.

- Gusty winds in frequent fast-moving showers will likely push through the Keys sometime between tonight and Monday. Confidence in timing is very low at this time.

- Major coastal flooding in the Upper Keys and moderate to minor coastal flooding in the Middle and Upper Keys is ongoing, especially during times of high tide.

UPDATE

Issued at 1102 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 The main change with the morning update is related to coastal flooding as several observational sites in the Upper Keys have reached or exceeded major flood category levels and thus, a Coastal Flood Warning is now in effect in the Upper Keys. Meanwhile, recent observations across the Lower Keys show numerous readings near or reaching moderate coastal flooding levels so a Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for both the Lower and Middle Keys. Water levels should generally trend downwards through the remainder of the day as the morning high tide has now passed, though they will start rising again through the evening hours after the afternoon low tide cycle. Otherwise, recent KBYX imagery is showing isolated to scattered showers with a few embedded storms across the eastern Straits at this time. The 23/12Z KEY RAOB shows decent moisture values in the low levels with low level RH values around 80% and a robust stable layer from about 850-750 mb. However, above this stable layer, very steep mid level lapse rates (-8.2 C/km) are in place as a result of a shortwave swinging across the FLorida peninsula, which is embedded within the longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic. Highest rain chances for the remainder of the day should remain across the eastern Straits and nearshore waters of the Upper Keys to the west surface troughing in The Bahamas, though a secondary area of activity may move off the mainland into the Bay and Gulf side waters this evening. If any of this precipitation activity is able to overcome the moderate to strong CIN observed from this morning's sounding, a few strong cores aloft can't be ruled out today but instability values are not that impressive so whether or not updrafts are able to overcome this cap remains to be seen and trends will be monitored closely.

..COASTAL FLOODING

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower Keys. As we continue to progress through the weekend and into next week, the tides are expected to continue to rise and will only be amplified by the prolonged northeasterly breezes we expect for the coming days. The peak will be towards the middle of the next week before the tides begin the down trend as we head into November.

MARINE

Issued at 445 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise (SCEC) is headlined throughout some of the Florida Keys coastal waters through this evening, mainly in the Straits and offshore southeast Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory may then be required tonight and into the weekend for the region as high pressure centered just north of the Great Lakes region will continue to slide eastward and strengthen over the next several days. The high will interact with a developing disturbance in the eastern Caribbean, supporting freshening northeasterly breezes over the next several days. Breezes will peak Sunday night through Tuesday, when strong to near gale breezes will be possible. The freshening breezes and a surge of moisture may also support elevated rain and isolated strong thunderstorm chances Friday night through Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026 Breezy NE winds will prevail through Saturday with wind gusts of 20 kts or more possible at times. While a few areas of SHRA may impact portions of the island chain through this evening, confidence is low on whether or not this activity will directly impact either terminals. Thus, precipitation activity has not been mentioned in recent TAF issuance at this time with VFR conditions generally expected to continue through Saturday.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ076.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ033-034.