textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding will continue across the Keys during the next several tidal cycles. Coastal flooding will gradually decrease over the weekend, but receding rates may be slow, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will become light to gentle at times through the end of the week with only a slight chance (20%) of rain until the weekend.

- Daily highs and lows across the Keys are on track to stay slightly above normal through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Weather conditions across the Keys were relatively uneventful overnight. Breezes were able to slacken to gentle to moderate across the reef yesterday. This morning, shower activity has been primarily over the Florida Straits and Hawk Channel south of the Keys. Satellite observations from GOES East showed mostly sunny skies across the nearshore and offshore waters after sunrise. Water vapor imagery, per Advected Layer PWAT products, indicates most of the moisture over the Keys was below 700 mb. The 12Z KKEY sounding supported this observation. The atmosphere dried out rapidly above 600 mb while humidities were high in the lowest 6 kft. Sufficient energy exists in the environment for showers to form, hence why the KBYX radar scanned showers south of the Upper Keys. Opting to leave the shower coverage at a slight chance. Showers are moving quickly and primarily remaining offshore, thankfully, because coastal flooding remains the primary risk for the Florida Keys.

A Coastal Flood Warning is still in effect for all the Florida Keys. Peak tides overnight were 2 to 2.5 ft above normal high tide last night, and multiple roads in low lying neighborhoods were completely covered by standing saltwater. While peak water levels are expected to slowly trend downward over the next few days, it will take time to return to normal. Breezes slackening to light to gentle will help as water will be less likely to pile up across the Keys. Remember to take precautions tonight, avoid flooded roadways when possible, and plan for the time of peak tides. This afternoon, expect highs in the mid 80s, breezes gradually slackening to light to gentle northeasterlies, and a slight chance of showers.

MARINE

Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for the island chain, but mariners should be aware of reduced clearance under fixed bridges due to the higher than normal high tides.

From synopsis: a broad area of high pressure moving across the eastern half of the U.S. will work with a weak inverted trough across the area to encourage gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes through the rest of the week. As the high moves over the southeastern U.S. over the weekend, the gradient will strengthen and the easternmost Hawk Channel and Florida Straits may see 2 to 4 foot northerly swell as a result of this. However, widely spread marine hazards are not expected.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH. Near surface winds are on track to remain northeasterly below 10 knots. Cloud cover will wax and wane near the terminals, but CIGs are not expected below FL030. MVFR CIGs may be observed near shallow showers, but not at sufficient coverage to warrant VCSH or a TEMPO.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1892, the daily record low temperature of 59F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the coldest temperature ever recorded in October, and is the earliest fall date on which a temperature below 60F has been recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 85 78 85 78 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 86 77 85 78 / 20 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.