textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms continues through tonight with possible afternoon cloud line development. - Mainly light to gentle broadly easterly breezes will continue through the first half of the week.

- The Remnants of Dolly may bring a period of much higher rain chances by the end of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1101 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026 Recent surface analysis shows an elongated inverted surface trough stretching from the Florida Keys northeastward across the northern Bahamas and into the western Atlantic. Regional radar and satellite imagery shows plenty of convection developing in the vicinity of this feature primarily to the northeast of the Florida Keys where better synoptic scale forcing for ascent is present as numerous vorticity lobes aloft are in place on the southern periphery of central CONUS ridge. Locally, latest KBYX radar imagery is not detecting anything more than some isolated echoes across the surrounding coastal waters of the Florida Keys at this time given the less favorable forcing for ascent in the KEY CWA. However, the boundary layer flow is rather weak and generally oriented in a light ENE direction, which may be supportive of cloud line development throughout the day. Additionally, the 12Z KEY RAOB shows a sufficiently moist near-surface profile, with low RH values of 85% and low dewpoint depressions in the surface-900 mb layer. Thus, some waterspout potential does exist today and in fact, one was already observed earlier this morning oceanside of Sugarloaf Key so this potential will be monitored closely the remainder of the day. Any precipitation activity that develops along the cloud line should generally fade by this evening with the loss of diurnal heating, though an active convective environment should exist across the SWFL peninsula later today with a sea breeze collision. As a result, outflow boundaries generated from this activity will need to be watched this evening as additional convection could occur across our region depending on how far southward this ultimately propagates.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 512 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026 A mostly uneventful night has unfolded for the Florida Keys into a peaceful early morning. Only a few light showers are being detected in the offshore waters and the island chain has remained shower free. Temperatures across land are in the mid to lower 80s and dew points are in the mid to upper 70s making for a humid warm morning. Along the Reef, light east to southeasterly breezes have persisted. As ridging continues to be the dominate feature for the Florida Keys, light and primarily easterly breezes will continue through the next few periods. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain at near normal through mid week. Mid to late this week, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase as the remnants of Dolly start to move into the area. At this time, the highest chances for rain are Thursday and Thursday night but that could change as what's left of Dolly continues moving towards our area. Stay tuned.

MARINE

Issued at 1159 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, the western periphery of an Atlantic high remains in control of the Keys for the next several days. Therefore, expect continued peaking and lulling breezes. The direction will also shift over the next few days with east to southeasterly breezes overnight and in the morning with northeast to east breezes late afternoon and evening. In addition, the overall flow will keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 204 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026 VFR conditions are primarily expected throughout the period with light ENE winds around 5 kts through tonight. However, brief periods of SHRA/TSRA may occur through this evening along a cloud line, which could result in periods of MVFR/IFR conditions, especially in pockets of heavier precipitation. Otherwise, conditions should be mostly dry overnight but some additional precipitation activity may develop by Wednesday morning, though overall coverage should remain low so this was not included in most recent TAF issuance at this time.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.