textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated rain chances will continue through the week and into the weekend.

- Mainly gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through the remainder of the week, though occasional periods of moderate breezes will occur.

MARINE

Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

There are currently no watches, warning, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Current marine observations are recording light to gentle south-southwest breezes. Winds are forecast to shift to an east to southeasterly heading through the afternoon with gentle to occasionally moderate breezes expected overnight. Thunderstorm activity has diminished across the coastal waters. From synopsis, the western periphery of an Atlantic high is expected to maintain control of the Keys for the next several days. This will continue to promote peaking and lulling east to southeast breezes. Breezes will peak in the evening through early morning hours and lull in the afternoons. In addition, the southeasterly flow will also keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Mostly sunny skies are present across the area, and VFR conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the day. Earlier convection east of MTH has since dissipated, and storms ongoing over the South Florida mainland are expected to remain far removed from KEYW & KMTH. With minimal cu development noted on vis satellite imagery, did not include a mention of precip in the TAF for much of the period. Hi-res guidance does suggest scattered thunderstorms may develop near the TAF sites tomorrow morning, so a PROB30 for TSRA was included given the sufficient levels of moisture. Persistent south to southeasterly surface winds around 8 to 10 knots are expected due to being on the western periphery of the Atlantic high.

FORECAST

The pattern for the next several days will continue to feature the western periphery of Atlantic ridging remaining over the Keys along with bouts of moisture and embedded subtle upper level shortwaves traversing through. As moisture continues to round the western side of the high, rain chances will remain elevated through the remainder of the week. Another interesting item of note is when looking at the CIMSS Mimic TPW product, it shows plenty of moisture in place from the Gulf all the way southeast to the Lesser Antilles. Needless to say, this pattern will be in place for a while as the nearest drier air is currently east of the Lesser Antilles. Therefore, expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms to continue for the next several days to week or more. In addition, east to southeast breezes will continue to mainly peak in the evenings/overnight and lull in the afternoons.

Late week into the weekend continues to be the interesting time frame. A couple stronger upper level shortwaves are expected to move northwestward through the Keys, especially in the time frame of Friday through early Sunday. Therefore, this time frame continues to look like the bigger show as we will have basically all the ingredients lined up for robust convection. We will have the instability, moisture, and lift all lining up at the same time. Also, we expect Cuba to flare convection quite a bit as well through this time frame so we will need to watch for outflow boundaries from this activity as it presses northward. In addition, convection over the mainland may also send boundaries southwestward through the Keys. Therefore, all this to say, expect rounds of convection through this time frame potentially coming from all different directions with boundary collisions plausible etc. More simply put, expect an unsettled weather pattern for the foreseeable future which is entirely normal for this time of the year. Average rain chances also peak for the month of September at 35%, which only a few days away. It remains hard to pinpoint exact timing for convection with the continued messaging being to just expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms into next week. In addition, expect daytime highs near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Of course, temperatures may fall into the upper 70s where any showers and storms move over.

TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor one area across the Eastern Tropical Atlantic with this system not currently posing a threat to the Keys. This area of interest has a 70% chance of development through 48 hours and a 70% chance of development through the next 7 days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 91 83 91 / 20 40 40 30 Marathon 83 91 83 91 / 30 40 40 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.