textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle mainly variable breezes are expected throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters today.

- Heat will be the primary weather concern through the rest of the week as indices may approach 108 to 110 degrees in the afternoon for portions of the island chain.

- Rounds of Saharan Air Layer will continue to stream across our area this week into next week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best.

FORECAST

The aforementioned upper level trough will continue to slowly propagate north northwestward through tonight. This trough will linger a little longer than anticipated not lifting north and out of the area until sometime Saturday night. While most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will remain north of the region, some of the activity may bleed southward, especially into the SE Gulf waters. Chances of showers and thunderstorms were placed into the forecast as a result. Elsewhere, slight chances of showers and thunderstorms continues. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will be capable of producing blinding downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. At the surface, the Keys remain in a col region which will continue light and variable winds through at least tonight. The high over the Atlantic will slowly start to stretch westward which will place much of the Keys back into a southeasterly regime. Winds are expected to peak in the evenings and overnight and lull during the daytime. Since the rain chances are only slight across much of the region, the heat continues. Daytime highs will continue to be in the lower 90s through the weekend and into next week with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain tropical in the mid to upper 70s leading to heat index values of 105 to 108 degrees. Once the trough departs this weekend, ridging will be the name of the game with moisture undulations rotating around it keeping slight chances in the extended.

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a split ridge pattern will remain across Keys waters for at least the next several days. This will keep a col somewhere near the Keys and keep winds light and often variable. Breezes will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours, before lulling during the day, particularly over the outer eastern Straits. Winds may briefly firm up to a gentle east to southeasterly breeze this weekend as the Atlantic ridge expands westward, flushing westward the col.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mainly light and variable through the period. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm is possible today, though, confidence is currently too low to place any mention of VCSH in the TAF.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2024, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, on this day in 2023, the daily record warm low temperature of 86F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 84 91 83 / 10 20 20 20 Marathon 92 83 92 83 / 10 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.