textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets will continue through tonight due to higher high tides. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- The wet pattern will continue through tonight with highest rainfall totals expected in the Lower Keys. Rain and thunder chances will decrease over the weekend through early next week.

- Breezes are set to slowly slacken from gentle to moderate to light to gentle across the Keys waters over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Showers were once again plentiful across the Florida Keys earlier today. Mercifully, the heaviest rainfall was not near the island chain. That does not mean the Lower Keys were spared heavy rainfall. MRMS rainfall estimates from 8 AM to 8 PM today suggest anywhere from a quarter to almost an inch of rainfall accumulated on the islands from Key West to Sugarloaf. However, the weather pattern shows signs of changing. GOES East satellite observations suggest the upper level trough that was funneling moisture towards the Keys has moved further west towards the Yucatan. Advected Layer Precipitable Water products show the surface to 700 mb layer remains saturated, but drier air is starting to move towards the Keys in the 700 to 500 mb layer. That calculation was supported by the sounding sampled by the 00Z KKEY balloon. A drier layer was measured between 800 and 525 mb with southeasterly to southerly winds aloft. The drier conditions suggest wind gusts near potential showers could be a concern tonight, but at the moment radar scans from KBYX are only sampling stray showers over the southern Florida Straits. The rest of the evening looks to be rather tame.

Overnight, the forecast concern is if and when showers will redevelop near the island chain. Statistical models suggest the greatest chance for showers would be before sunrise, but the drier air is creeping into the Keys. Convective models suggest the area most favorable for shower development would be the western Straits, not the Florida Keys. In addition, breezes are on track to slacken. The forecast already highlighted more shower coverage over the western waters, so no changes to the PoPs were made. Enjoy the break in showers while you can!

MARINE

Issued at 1010 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 No watches, warnings or advisories are in effect for the nearshore and offshore waters of the Florida Keys.

From synopsis: Atlantic high pressure offshore of the southeastern U.S. will remain in place during the start of the weekend. This feature will maintain moderate east to southeasterly breezes initially across the local waters, but a gradual slackening trend will occur overnight and Saturday. In addition, relatively drier conditions will settle in for the weekend. However, an additional push of moisture may come by the middle of next week. Either way, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. High altitude cloud cover will persist through the overnight hours. Gusts are more likely overnight, but near surface winds are expected to trend down later in the period. Showers may be able to redevelop near the terminals before sunrise, but there is not sufficient confidence to include VCSH at this time. Showers that form are more likely to be located west of EYW.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 90 80 90 / 40 40 30 20 Marathon 81 88 81 88 / 40 40 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.