textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Warmer than usual temperatures and light to gentle breezes through the weekend. Expect rising dew points through Sunday.

-A potent cold front is expected to race through the Florida Keys late Monday. Winds will rapidly shift northerly and sustained strong to near gale breezes are possible. -The cold air mass behind the front, and a reinforcing front will keep temperatures below normal for most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Slow moderation continues across the Keys this morning. Temperatures are now near 70 with dew point depressions of only a degree or two. A shallow ridge across Florida is maintaining light to gentle and broadly easterly breezes. Isolated to scattered moderate showers persist along a South Florida convergence boundary, and have recently started to poke across the Upper Keys into the Florida Bay.

The combination of ongoing moderation, a firming up ridge across Florida, and a deepening surface trough in the western Gulf will result in winds strengthening slightly out of the east to southeast. Expect relatively warm and humid conditions to persist through the remainder of the weekend. Highs and lows will be around 5 degrees above normal with dew points climbing into the lower 70s.

The previously mentioned low will rapidly intensify late this weekend and early next week as it tracks northeastward and merging with a Carolina coastal low. The tail end of an associated prefrontal trough will barely scrape across South Florida and the Keys. While boundary layer moisture will be ample, forcing is expected to be weak. As a result, will maintain mention of only slight chance for showers. This will be followed by a vigorous cold front passage late Monday and Monday night, driven by a 1040 to 1045 high cell advancing southwards down the Plains. Expect local breezes to strengthen considerably, becoming strong with possibly near gale force. Winds are expected to relax considerably on Tuesday as the high pulls across Florida. However, a reinforcing front is expected late Wednesday night into early Thursday. This persistent cold air advection pattern will result several days with dew points in the 40s and temperatures falling to around 10 degrees below normal.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

The combination of a shallow ridge across Florida and a weak trough across the Bahamas is producing light northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters this morning. Winds will be light, ticking up to gentle to moderate this weekend as the ridge across Florida firms up and troughing deepens in the western Gulf. A vigorous cold front is expected to blast through Keys waters in the Monday through Monday night time frame. In wake of the front, winds will freshen out of the northwest to north. Expect breezes to become strong and possibly near gale force. This wind surge is expected to be relatively short lived with breezes relaxing considerably on Tuesday. A reinforcing cold front is anticipated Wednesday night, and may bring with it another northerly surge. This second surge is expected to be quite a bit weaker.

CLIMATE

On this day in Florida Keys climate history in 2003, Key West experienced a very chilly day behind a powerful cold front. A high temperature of 56 F and a low temperature of 45 F were recorded at the Key West International Airport. Both measurement set records for the date. Temperature records at Key West date back to 1873.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.