textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure dominant across the area will continue to support an extended period of relatively unremarkable weather. - Generally moderate easterly breezes will prevail over the early week, eventually veering to the southeast sometime during the middle of the week. - Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers (10% to 20%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026 It has been a beautiful evening along the Florida Keys after our clocks have jumped ahead one hour. Automated observations along the Keys are reporting temperatures in the upper 70s with accompanying dew points near 70F. Our KBYX radar has been detecting clusters of thunderstorms over the mainland, but we have not seen any activity within our CWA. The 00Z KKEY sounding from this evening shows a fairly moist environment, particularly in the lower levels, with a calculated PWAT of 1.27 inches. This is just a few hundredths of an inch shy of the 75th percentile, so why isn't the atmosphere doing anything with this moisture? The sounding also shows virtually nonexistent inhibition, and a ML CAPE value of 1109 J/kg. While these are usually favorable ingredients for some activity, we are still lacking a meaningful lifting mechanism to trigger anything. Previous runs of the hi-res models have shows the possibility of a couple of light showers overnight, so we will continue to the carry the slight chance (10%) of rain.

Unremarkable conditions are expected to continue into the overnight hours courtesy of the influence from high pressure. GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics shows a continuous influx of clouds across the area, but there are no meteorological returns being detected by radar. The current forecast is unfolding as expected, and no changes or updates are needed at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026 High pressure is centered near Bermuda with the western periphery of this ridge extending west into Florida and the Gulf. This will continue to promote moderate to fresh breezes early this morning, especially across the Straits with modest slackening thereafter. As the high retreats into Atlantic early this week, breezes will shift to the east to southeast. A frontal boundary approaching from the north mid to late week is anticipated to lead to freshening breezes and clocking breezes from southeast to south to north to northeast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with easterly surface winds near 10 knots. Few to SCT decks will linger near FL020, but MVFR CIGs are not expected. Low chances, around 10 percent, for rain have warranted dry TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 75 82 75 83 / 10 0 10 0 Marathon 75 83 75 83 / 10 0 10 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.