textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light and variable winds will become southeast and freshen early this morning.

- A more active weather pattern develops by early next week with higher rain chances and increasing southeasterly winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 541 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The showers and thunderstorms observed in the Straits of Florida earlier this morning have all fizzled out leaving only a few very light showers in its wake. Beyond that, KBYX is not detecting any activity. Temperatures across the island chain are in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid 70s making for another muggy summer morning. Along the Reef, marine locations are recording east to southeast winds of 5 to 10 knots. For today, shower development is possible but just slight chances are advertised for the day. Variable and light winds will becoming mostly southeasterly after sunrise and slightly freshen to 5 to 10 knots.

Through next week the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge will remain the dominate feature. This will support generally light to moderate east to southeast breezes and bring an influx of moisture to our area. With sufficient precipitable water values we can expect higher rain chances peaking on Tuesday night through Thursday night. Cloud lines will be possible with the southeasterly winds as well causing showers and potential waterspouts as well. Outside of higher chances of convection breezes will be steady at light to moderate throughout the week. Going into next weekend rain chances will return to near normal for early August.

MARINE

Issued at 541 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, as high pressure begins to strengthen in the North Atlantic, breezes will freshen while becoming southeast early this morning. Light to gentle breezes will continue into early next week with some occasional periods of gentle to moderate. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by next week as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. As chances for showers and thunderstorms increase next week, mariners can expect higher winds and seas near this activity.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A narrow ribbon of moisture will potentially result in some showers and thunderstorms from 08 to 12z. A PROB30 has been included for possible impacts. Thereafter, a thin layer of dry air will move in and conditions are expected to be dry. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at near 10 knots.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.