textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Measurable rain chances will stay low for each forecast period through this weekend, generally at 20% or less.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy.

- There will be little relief in the warm temperatures overnight, with minimum temperatures near record values in the lower to mid 80s for most communities.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 An upper-level composite analysis this evening revealed little change in the overall synoptic pattern other than a slight sharpening and northward translation of the low-level ridge. Data from the Key West evening radiosonde balloon indicated a moderately unstable thermodynamic stratification with low-level convective inhibition energy greater than 24 hours ago, and similar to that observed 48 hours ago, Tuesday evening. Nevertheless, a review of Key West Doppler radar base reflectivity data for the last several hours shows no shortage of shower and thunderstorm initiation and coverage across the service area. For much of the evening, the "hot zone" was over the extreme southeastern Gulf waters between East Cape Sable and Dry Tortugas National Park, with most cells staying north of the lower Florida Keys. More recently, showers and storms have migrated westward from the Bahama Banks and entered the Straits of Florida between the Cay Sal Bank and the upper Florida Keys. Overall coverage at any snapshot in time has been isolated for the most part.

Since rain has not cooled any of the official stations in the Keys, current air temperatures are still in the mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s, and heat indices in the mid 90s. Prevailing east winds are blowing right at 10 mph sustained on land.

Overnight, we can expect more warm, muggy weather with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, with rain just as likely at midnight as it is at daybreak.

MARINE

Issued at 1125 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters. However, sustained winds have increased 3-5 knots from this time yesterday owing to a slightly sharper and more northward surface ridge. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop and move westward 8-12 knots overnight with only a slight chance for impact at any one location.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1125 PM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Through 26/24Z, prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both EYW and MTH, with steady ESE breezes. Although a sub-VFR episode from either a short-lived shower or thunderstorm is still a possibility, the probability of such is too low for inclusion in the TAF.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.