textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Measurable rain chances will stay low for each forecast period through this weekend, generally at 20% or less.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy.

- There will be little relief in the warm temperatures overnight, with minimum temperatures near record values in the lower to mid 80s for most communities.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1028 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The KBYX radar is quickly quieting down after a rash of showers and thunderstorms developed prior to and around sunrise. Unfortunately, most of this activity dwindled before even reaching the island chain, adding insult to injury. The Florida Keys, especially the Middle and Lower Keys, remain under Moderate Drought conditions. Thankfully we are still at the beginning of our wet season, so we have a ways to go. Otherwise, the Florida Keys remain on the western periphery of a ridge that extends out from the central North Atlantic. Our position under this ridge is maintaining generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes. This has also maintained a nearly stagnant weather pattern with just brief pockets of moisture pivoting through at times. In addition, daytime temperatures have held near 90 degrees with overnight lows stubbornly holding onto the lower to mid 80s. Likewise, we have had to contend with daily heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. This does not look to change in the foreseeable future.

To that end, opted to make no changes for the going forecast for today. While most of the showers have dwindled this morning, additional isolated showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly in the Upper Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 1028 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Gentle east to southeast breezes this morning will gradually, but briefly slacken this afternoon. After sunset, expecting breezes to peak once again to gentle to moderate. Thereafter, breezes will generally continue to cycle between peaks in the evening and overnight and lulls during the morning and early afternoons. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain slight at best through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Shower activity is quickly diminishing this morning and will continue to dwindle into the afternoon. Additional showers may develop but would mainly be east of the MTH terminal. Otherwise, east to southeast winds will briefly lull this afternoon and peak during the evening and overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 535 AM EDT Thu Jun 25 2026 Another warm and humid morning is underway across the Florida Keys as a broad subtropical ridge remains across the region. Surface observations across the island chain indicate temperatures are in the mid 80s with dewpoints holding in the mid 70s, maintaining a muggy airmass. Along the Reef, marine locations are reporting east to southeast winds at near 10 knots. KBYX radar has been detecting various scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms for a majority of the night into the early morning hours. Sufficient moisture will allow for the continuous showers here and there but overall coverage will remain fairly isolated to scattered with our rain chances being 20% for today. Overall, little change is expected in the weather with conditions resembling those that have been observed across the Keys throughout most of this past week as high pressure remains in place.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 83 92 84 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 89 84 89 84 / 20 30 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.