textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect. Low lying areas will see minor saltwater ponding around the times of high tide.

- Forecast confidence for this weekend through early next week is low. Regardless, elevated rain chances along with breezy to windy conditions will be possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 924 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 A boundary evident on KBYX radar imagery extends from Cape Sable southwestward across the nearshore Gulfside waters and even to the southwest of Key West across the Straits. This feature provided enough of a source of lift to allow for the development of a few low-topped isolated showers this evening in this region, with activity generally moving to the WSW. Elsewhere, dry conditions prevail at the moment but rain chances will be on the increase late into the overnight hours and into Wednesday as deeper moisture associated with the increasingly diffuse frontal boundary across the Straits starts to spread back into the area. It appears the best push of moisture will occur Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours but this will be a rather narrow ribbon of enhanced moisture initially, which will then be followed by a region of drier air Wednesday night. This increase in deeper moisture also means that our period of slightly more comfortable dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will now return to mostly the upper 70s by tomorrow, though overnight low temperatures will still be a few degrees cooler than what has been observed recently as most of the island chain should be in the 70s versus readings in the 80s as of late. Overall, the ongoing forecast continues to remain in good shape with no changes planned at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 Dewpoints along the island chain are ranging from 72-74 degrees this afternoon. This is a few degrees lower than they have been as of recent days and provides at least some evidence that the moisture front is trying to push south of the Keys. This is evident by sub 1" PWATs on MIMIC-TPW imagery across much of the central and eastern Gulf as well as the Florida Peninsula on MIMIC-TPW imagery, while PWATs are closer to 2" in a column extending across the Bahamas and through the Florida Straits. The 12Z KKEY RAOB did measure PWATs of 2.2" but also sampled the proliferation of dry mid-level air above 500mb that is occurring as a result of 594dam ridging centered along the Texas coast and northwestern Gulf. Highest rain chances will be focused across the Straits of Florida through tonight. By tomorrow, the ridge will begin to shift eastward towards the Atlantic. This will promote southeasterly low/mid-level flow which will allow moisture to surge back to the north across the Keys, supporting chances for passing showers and storms through the end of the week. Meanwhile, nearby tidal stations continue to report high tide peaks near or right at Coastal Flood Statement criteria. Projections are slightly decreasing for the next few tidal cycles, but for now the Coastal Flood Statement will remain in effect along the Keys through tonight for minor saltwater ponding of low-lying areas during high tide.

The next system of interest is still forecast to develop on Friday as an upper-level trough dives southeastward from Canada and merges with a cutoff low near the Upper Midwest. A strong cold front will surge south and push through the Gulf coast region Friday night into Saturday. Recent model consensus diverges on the southern extent of the front over the weekend as the mid to upper-level trough pulls away towards the North Atlantic. This also depends on where and how fast the subtropical ridge becomes reestablished in the Atlantic in the wake of the departing trough. Regardless of whether the cold front stalls across Central Florida or has enough forcing to make it through the Florida Keys, we expect windy conditions to begin developing across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters as early as Saturday night in addition to a multi-day period of active weather featuring medium to high rain chances. In the coming days as forecast confidence improves, we will have further details to provide regarding potential marine weather impacts.

MARINE

Issued at 154 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Surrounding marine observations are currently reporting gentle to moderate northeast breezes. From synopsis, high pressure is centered over the Southeast U.S. and the northern Gulf. An Atlantic ridge continues to weaken and retreat east towards the central Atlantic. In between these two features lies a weak cold front which has generally stalled along and parallel or just south of the Florida Keys. This will promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes over the next several days. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms over the next few days as this weak and diffuse front remains in the area. Late in the week, a strong cold front could develop and move towards the Florida Keys by the weekend. Currently, there are low chances that the front will make it to the Florida Keys waters. We will continue monitoring this system.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 924 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026 VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the TAF period, but there will be an increase in rain chances on Wednesday as deeper moisture spreads back into the area. As a result, some brief VSBY restrictions may occur at times throughout the day on Wednesday, but overall precipitation coverage should be limited so direct impacts to terminals will be a rather low chance. In addition, surface winds will remain consistent out of the ENE around 8-10 kts with occasional higher gusts into Wednesday evening.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.