textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunder chances will remain near zero for the Keys through the weekend. - Dew points will increase to the mid 70s by the end of the week. Combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, this will support potential elevated heat risk concerns for the weekend.

- Limited total rainfall amounts are expected through early next week for most island communities. This will continue to exacerbate existing drought conditions across the Keys.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail with virtually no shower or thunderstorm activity through the TAF period. Fair weather cumulus clouds will be based somewhere near FL025 and 030, and will range in coverage from FEW to occasionally SCT.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 A rather routine forecast through at least Sunday. A ridge will slowly slide eastward over the next several days while also amplifying. Light southeasterlies will supply modest warm air and dew point advection to the Keys. Forecast soundings suggest cloud cover will be quite limited through at least Sunday, with near-nil rain and thunder chances continuing. Temperatures will become above normal as the ridge sits on top of the Keys by the weekend, with highs in the mid to upper 80s (near 90F at a few island communities), and temperatures struggling to get below 80F for the overnight periods in the stagnant light flow.

Early next week, most ensemble mean global guidance suggests a weak frontal boundary will approach the Keys. As is often the case this time of year, the boundary will lose baroclinicity as it approaches South Florida, likely stalling before eventually washing out. However, this may support at least a window of slight to low-end chance rain and thunder potential. Any rainfall will be welcome, given low- to moderate ongoing drought conditions for the Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 1009 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories issued for the Florida Keys local waters. Higher pressure building in, and dominating the pattern, will encourage light to gentle southeasterly breezes through the middle of the week. Breezes may become variable at times. Moisture will be limited through the atmosphere, so rain and thunder chances are very low, near zero. The next opportunity for some unsettled weather may not be until early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 79 89 80 90 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 79 86 80 86 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.