textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Coastal flooding will continue through the next several days, especially in the Upper Keys.

- A wet, stormy period will continue through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall, especially when coincident with high tides, will exacerbate coastal flooding impacts.

- Much drier conditions are expected for Tuesday through the remainder of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

The KBYX radar has remained active through this afternoon. The activity this morning that was favoring the Lower Keys has shifted eastward and is affecting more of the Middle and Upper Keys. Meanwhile, the area between the Marquesas Keys and Dry Tortugas, which was quite, has come back to life in a hurry. Most of this is due to a combination of clearing skies and boundary collisions from leftover outflows. Clearing skies allowed for daytime heating to percolate across these waters and drive instability, which has now helped to fuel a sudden increase in coverage. The highest amounts were received across the Lower Keys between Sugarloaf and Big Pine Keys, as well as portions of the Middle Keys.

This active wet pattern is thanks to an mid/upper level trough that has become cut-off temporarily and is situated just to our southwest and west. In the lower levels, we are situated on the western periphery of an Atlantic Ridge with an area of cyclonic flow under the aforementioned cut-off. The easterly flow in the low levels from the ridge is providing ample moisture. This is helping to fuel storms that have developed within this broad area of convergence.

The upper level cut-off low will weaken over the next 24 to 36 hours and pushed eastward as the next upper level trough approaches from the west. Though the upper level feature will be weakening, we will continue to see above normal rain chances lingering into Wednesday, before returning closer to normal towards the end of the week. By the weekend, the upper level pattern becomes more zonal for the Gulf Basin and Florida Peninsula, ushering in dry conditions. We're keeping an eye on a potential dry frontal passage early next week which could lead to freshening breezes. Stay tuned!

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Convection across the region will continue through the afternoon and much of the evening. This will continue to affect the local wind field, creating chaotic and at times gusty winds. Convection will decrease in coverage over the next 24 to 36 hours. Aside from a brief and localized nocturnal surge tonight, gentle to moderate breezes will gradually slacken to light to gentle over the coming days. There are hints that a frontal passage may come through early next week, which would lead to freshening breezes.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Convection is diminishing, especially across the MTH terminal this hour. VFR conditions have returned to EYW and is expected over the next few hours at MTH. The low level flow will remain moist and may reintroduce a threat for VCSH overnight, should we see a lull during the late afternoon and evening. Outside of convection, expect easterly winds around 10 knots or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 77 84 76 83 / 50 30 30 20 Marathon 77 84 77 84 / 50 40 30 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ076.

GM...None.