textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes will prevail, peaking overnight and lulling during the day. - Near to below normal shower and thunder chances will prevail through the weekend and well into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 KBYX radar has been detecting showers and thunderstorms throughout this morning with the stronger cells located in the northeastern area of our Gulf waters. While showers have been plentiful, the island chain has only seen minimal rainfall amounts ranging from a few hundreths to a tenth of an inch. Temperatures along the island chain are nearing 90 with dewpoints in the upper 70s. Apart from convective locations GOES-19 Visible Satelitte reveals mostly sunny skies making for a nice hot summer day. Along the Reef, marine observation sites are reporting southeasterly winds of near 10 knots. As the day continues on, showers are expected to dwindle in coverage and strength resulting in only a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for tonight. Gentle breezes will once again freshen tonight to gentle to moderate in an overnight surge. As the Mid Atlantic high continues to dominate our weather not much is expected to change therefore no modifications were needed for this update package.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Considerably drier conditions have finally spread across the area. This is due to deep layered Atlantic ridging centered off the Mid Atlantic coast expanding westward into the Gulf. In addition, winds had relaxed to a light to gentle breezes through the evening. Precipitable water has also fallen to 2.08 inches. This is still above the 75 percentile for the day and inhibition has been absent. However, CAPE was limited below 800 mb.

With the departure of the lower level trough, east to southeasterly breezes have increased to gentle to moderate across the area as the surface ridge exerts more control over our area. This ridge will remain planted across Florida and the Gulf through the duration of the forecast. Expect breezes to peak in the gentle to moderate range overnight and lull to light to gentle during the day. No trend in temperatures are expected with highs remaining near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will hover in the mid to upper 70s.

In general, the deep layered ridging will keep rain chances slim to none through the forecast, Scattered activity currently working its way across the area should diminish through the morning hours. In addition, a subtle lower level trough will move across our area Sunday into Sunday night and may nudge PoPs up into low chance range.

MARINE

Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, an Atlantic high off the mid Atlantic coast will extend a ridge across northern Florida and the Gulf coast through the weekend and into next week. This will maintain gentle to moderate mostly easterly breezes on our waters through the remainder of the week and into early next week. Expect sizable swings in wind speeds, lulling during the day and peaking overnight. Periodic cautions cannot be ruled out for portions of our waters early next week. Shower and thunder chances will be near to below normal through the duration.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. VCSH is included at both terminals until this afternoon when rain chances will lower and are less likely to cross near the airports. Near surface winds are southeasterly at near 10 knots.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.