textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A wetter pattern is setting up, and chances for rain will increase through the weekend and into the start of next week. The chance for thunderstorms is still slight, but the best window of opportunity currently looks to be Sunday and Sunday night.

- Breezy to windy conditions may develop as early as Tuesday, and are expected to continue through most of the week. - Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 936 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 Weather conditions across the Florida Keys area may not have known that today is Friday the 13th as we have seen a fairly benign evening! Our KBYX radar has not detected any meteorological returns within our CWA, but it did capture the expansive shower and thunderstorm activity over the mainland. Drought conditions are still prevalent across the state, including the Keys, so this activity was much needed. Even though there is a fair amount of moisture sitting in the lower levels of our atmosphere, we haven't had much in terms of a lifting mechanism to encourage shower activity. With that being said, our radar is good at detecting lingering ghost boundaries across the area, and there seems to be one setting up in the vicinity of the island chain, crossing over the Middle Keys. The outflow boundaries associated with the mainland showers may collide with this boundary, and trigger some showers tonight. In fact, as we are typing this, a few showers have just initiated over Florida Bay. The 00Z KKEY sounding showed an environment supportive of some shower activity, but we have almost been waiting in limbo for some lift. All of this is to say that the 30 percent chance of rain advertised for tonight seems reasonable, and we will opt to carry that through this update.

Otherwise, the forecast is unfolding as expected, and changes are not needed with this evening update.

MARINE

Issued at 936 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, surface high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature across the area through the weekend. This will lead to freshening mainly southeast breezes. Another more significant frontal system will begin to make its way towards the Keys early next week. This will lead to southeast breezes clocking around the compass becoming northwest to north early next week while also freshening.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 936 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the 00Z TAF period, but nighttime showers may lead to occasional, short lived observations of MVFR CIGs at either terminal. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the generaly forecast, but confidence regarding hyperlocal sensible weather is still low, so opting to keep VCSH and VCTS out of the TAFs until active weather trends can be evaluated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 73 83 74 84 / 30 50 50 60 Marathon 74 82 75 82 / 30 50 50 60

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.