textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended period of wet and windy conditions will develop across the Florida Keys tonight due to an approaching cold front. Drier conditions may gradually return by the early to middle part of next week, but winds are forecast to remain elevated.

- A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required by this evening for the Gulf waters, spreading across the remaining waters late tonight or during the morning hours on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1027 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 We've generally entered a lull in activity this morning across our waters with only a few areas of isolated showers near and south of Marathon. Vis satellite even shows areas of nearly cloudless skies across portions of the Lower and Upper Keys. This lull may last through the remainder of the morning, but expect the atmosphere to rebound with showers and occasional storms this afternoon as the cold front continues to gradually push towards the area. Current surface analysis shows the northeast to southwest oriented front has made it to Central Florida, but it's southeastward progression is beginning to slow down as it moves closer to the Atlantic ridge which is still trying to hold on across the Bahamas and through Cuba. Moisture is already quite high across the area with measured PWATs above the 90th percentile on our morning RAOB. CIMSS steering products show that the southern extent of the mid to upper-level trough axis over the Eastern CONUS is nosing into the Gulf and slowly shifting eastward, so we will see increasing synoptic scale support for scattered to numerous showers and storms as we progress through the next 24 hours in addition to increasing surface convergence along and ahead of the approaching cold front. I see no reason not to maintain the current forecast through this afternoon with 70% PoPs in our Gulf waters and Lower Keys trending down to 40% in the distant and eastern Straits. As we head into tonight, however, showers and scattered thunderstorms will become more widespread across the entire area. Winds will also begin to quickly ramp up from north to south this evening and through the overnight hours. We will likely begin to see Small Craft Advisory conditions across the southeastern Gulf as early as this evening, with fresh to strong northeasterly breezes expanding south across the remaining area overnight and through the morning hours on Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 1027 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected as early as tonight for portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters while a strong cold front moves south across the Gulf.

From synopsis, a cold front is progressing southeastward across the central and eastern Gulf today. Breezes are on track to stay light to gentle northeasterlies this afternoon before the front reaches the northernmost Gulf waters tonight. Once the cold front begins its passage across the Keys waters, breezes are expected to freshen rapidly amidst squally conditions. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for part of or all the Florida Keys waters tonight into Sunday. Fresh, occasionally strong, northeasterly breezes are expected to persist through the first half of the week. Shower chances will peak tonight and Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 735 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026 Gradually deteriorating flight conditions are expected during this TAF period as a strong cold front moves towards the Keys. Coverage of showers and occasional thunderstorms will begin increasing this evening through the overnight hours accompanied by occasional MVFR ceilings. In addition, a strong pressure gradient will support increasing north-northeasterly sfc winds of 10-15 kt with gusts of 20 to 25 kt.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 87 75 85 75 / 60 90 80 20 Marathon 86 76 84 76 / 50 90 80 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.