textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Temperatures will be warmer than normal through the weekend, with highs near 80 degrees, and lows in the lower 70s.

-Humidity will also remain well above normal due to the east to southeast winds.

-Confidence is high for a potentially strong frontal passage late Sunday into early Monday.

-A secondary front is becoming increasingly likely mid-week next week, with the potential for thunderstorms ahead of the frontal passage.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. Isolated showers continue to wax and wane in the vicinity of both terminals but will decrease in coverage later this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Near surface winds will start out of the east at near 10 knots, backing to the northeast and slackening overnight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

A low level moisture plume has been slowly traversing west- northwest across the area overnight thanks to a low level ridge in place across the central and southwest Atlantic. This has resulted in a narrow band of showers that have mostly passed through the Lower Keys. This ridge is also maintaining an east to southeast wind regime across the island chain. This is helping to keep temperatures in the mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s.

Additional pockets of moisture are pivoting along the periphery of said ridge and will continue to provide at least slight chance PoPs for today. The ridge is slowly retreating eastward as an elongated upper level trough approaches. This trough extends from the western Great Lakes region into the Texas Panhandle and will slam into the western flank of the retreating ridge over the weekend. An attendent surface cold front will enter the western Gulf Basin early Sunday and begin marching eastward. Although the ridge will flatten and weaken, it will not be enough to allow for a robust frontal passage. In fact, recent models have slightly backed off on the strength of this front. That being said, the initially surge in winds looks to be unaffected but the timing of how long we will see breezy conditions has shortened.

As alluded to, the front having lost most of its forward momentum will then stall across the Florida Keys for the start of the new work week. This will result in above normal rain chances. Some instability across the Straits of Florida may allow for a few isolated thunderstorms at times Monday through Tuesday.

Thereafter, eyes turn to the next trough that will dive out of Canada and phase with the Subtropical Jet. As these two features begin to phase, it will act to break down the low level ridge across the Keys and begin shifting east. As a result, low level winds will undergo veering starting Tuesday evening. This on top of a lingering frontal boundary could spark off additional thunderstorms over a larger area. In addition, an initially subtle shortwave rounding the base, will strengthen as it ejects east and races towards South Florida. This will continue our thunder chances through Wednesday and help to fuel frontogenesis across the central Gulf. A new front will quickly take shape and sweep through during the early morning hours of Thursday. Confidence of this next front has increased, but the strength remains uncertain. GFS has taken this next front up a notch from 24 hours ago, however, we are still talking about a feature nearly 6-7 days out. The ECMWF has mostly stayed the same from run to run over the same time period. For now will take a middle of the road approach.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

A narrow band of showers in moving west northwest across the Straits of Florida, the Lower Keys, and across the extreme southeast Gulf waters. Shower activity will continue for day but will be spotty at times. Shower coverage will gradually increase starting tonight as moisture pools across the Florida Keys in advance of the next frontal passage. A cold front will slide through late Sunday into early Monday with freshening northerly breezes in its wake. This front will stall across our coastal waters and maintain generally moderate breezes through early next week. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible starting as early as Sunday night across mainly the Straits of Florida. A second front will develop on Wednesday across the Gulf and sweep through early Thursday. Ahead of this frontal passage, expecting thunderstorm coverage to expand. Behind this next front mariners can expect another period of freshening northerly breezes.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.