textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be expected across mainly the Straits of Florida today. Along the island chain and north, additional rounds of shallow, fast-moving showers will be possible ahead of the next front.

- Drier and cooler weather will filter in for the weekend, along with breezy conditions at times.

- A strong high pressure diving south from Canada will settle and build along the Eastern Seaboard early next week. This will lead to a prolonged period of windy conditions.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 437 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

It has been a dynamically active overnight across mostly the waters south of the island chain. A pre-frontal trough moved through early in the overnight and is now across the Straits of Florida. Here, numerous showers and even a couple thunderstorms have developed in this region thanks to the warm waters of the Straits and deeper instability. In the wake of the trough, we are seeing narrow bands of showers moving southeast associated with a weak cold air advection. In addition, winds have begun to freshen as expected.

Currently, the actual front lies across central Florida, along and north of Lake Okeechobee. The front is moving southeast and will sweep through the Florida Keys by the mid-late afternoon. As this front approaches, we can expect additional narrow bands of showers to develop and slide southeast. However, the highest chances for showers will be right along the front as it passes through. In the wake of the front tonight, we can expect a stronger surge of winds as well as cooler and drier conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 437 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms have been waxing and waning across the Straits of Florida overnight. Here, we will continue to see the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms through the morning and afternoon. A front lies across central Florida and extends southwest into the east/southeast Gulf Basin. This front will enter our Southeast Gulf waters by this afternoon and make steady progress to the southeast through the remainder of the afternoon. Expect gentle northerly breezes to gradually freshen ahead of the front passage with a sharper freshening occurring during the late evening. Moderate to fresh breezes look to be most likely across the eastern waters immediately downwind of the mainland. The eastern Straits of Florida in particular will likely see Small Craft Advisory conditions during the peak of the wind surge overnight. Breezes across the region will then initially relax as high pressure slides southeast out of the Great Lakes. However, by late Sunday, this high will settle along the Eastern Seaboard and build. This will bring a return of fresh to strong breezes and potentially for a prolonged period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Weak cold air advection is driving narrow bands of showers southeast towards the island chain and may pass over the EYW terminal this morning. Have included a TEMPO for lower ceilings as this first band comes through. A front, which lies to our north, will sweep through likely after 19Z this afternoon and there could be a line of showers or potentially an isolated thunderstorm associated with the passage. Confidence on convection holding together as it approaches the terminals is lower than usual and for now have mentioned as VCSH.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 69 76 67 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 82 67 74 66 / 20 10 0 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.