textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease across the western Florida Straits and Southeast Gulf waters.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated today followed by diminishing rain chances thereafter.

- Dry conditions quickly return for tonight and continue through the upcoming weekend.

FORECAST

The main story for the next 12 hours will be determining exactly what the backside of this upper level shortwave trough does as it pivots through the Keys. Latest guidance suggests showers and thunderstorms expanding in coverage this morning (around daybreak or slightly after). There are some indications for this activity to be slow moving with whatever does develop. Therefore, there is the potential for some locally heavy rainfall wherever any showers and thunderstorms move over. Also, this could very well end up over the marine area sparing the Island Chain communities. The best chance time for showers and thunderstorms appears to be between 24/12z and 25/00z as of now. All of the ingredients remain in place for this to be a potentially wet day for some locations. We have the instability, trigger (upper level shortwave trough) and the moisture. Any shower and storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Based on the latest hi-res model trends, we decided to raise the rain chances to 50% for today and that may very well end up too high or too low depending on how the day pans out. Once we get to late Friday afternoon/evening, this shortwave trough will be well on its way to the Bahamas allowing the Keys to begin to clear out.

Upper level heights remain expected to rise over the weekend into the middle part of next week as the aforementioned shortwave trough moves away from the region. This will leave the Keys in northwesterly flow aloft for several days. At the surface, high pressure will remain dominant under generally weak flow. Therefore, expect warming temperatures with highs in the mid 80s with some indications for upper 80s in some locations. Also, anticipate rising dew points and increasing humidity. Nil rain chances remain for now due to dry air lingering across the area.

MARINE

Issued at 443 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) until winds decrease across the western Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will slowly crawl away from the area, and breezes will continue to gradually slacken through tonight. Weak high pressure will maintain control over the weekend, and into early next week, promoting light to gentle breezes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 443 AM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026 A disturbance moving through the Keys early this morning is expected to bring increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Latest thinking is for the time frame between 24/12z and 25/00z to be the best chance time for showers and thunderstorms across the area. However, the timing and placement still remains uncertain, though, due to the elevated rain chances, VCSH was included in the TAF. Any showers and storms today will be capable of reducing VIS and lowering CIGs to MVFR conditions. Also, frequent lightning and gusty winds are also possible.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1979, the daily record rainfall of 2.70" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

On this day in 1994, the daily record rainfall of 0.62" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date back to June 1950.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 75 83 76 / 50 20 10 10 Marathon 80 74 83 75 / 40 20 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.