textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light and variable winds will become light to gentle out of the east to southeast overnight.

- Conditions will be favorable for island cloud line formation near portions of the Florida Keys on Friday. Any developing cloud line will support a marginal risk for waterspouts.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the holiday weekend. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with seasonably warm and muggy conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Under a nebulous pressure regime, a broken island cloud line formed in the late morning hours across portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. Similar to the previous days, rather than congealing into a well-defined entity, this cloud line remained broken throughout its lifetime. The broken nature seemed to support continuous updraft development, with the cloud line feature remaining present well into the late evening hours. Rainfall amounts across the Island Chain varied substantially, with MRMS radar estimated totals ranging from near zero, mainly in the Upper Keys, to isolated bullseyes over 0.5" in select island communities in the Lower Keys, and well over 1.0" in the nearshore waters. The cloud line has finally fizzled, leaving the Island Chain under partly cloudy skies, and temperatures generally in the lower 80s.

The first early signs of a more well-defined pressure pattern are evident in recent Doppler radar activity, with confluent-driven widely scattered showers pushing off Andros Island towards the eastern Straits of Florida. Coupled with residual boundaries lurking across the entire CWA, along with an uninhibited thermodynamic profile sampled in the 00z evening sounding at KEY, there is little reason to deviate from the inherited slight rain and thunder chances overnight, with most likely coverage in the Gulf waters north of the Lower Keys as well as in the eastern Straits of Florida. No changes proposed to the inherited forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, generally light east to southeast breezes will become variable at times through Friday. Any active weather over the marine zones will largely be limited to possible afternoon nearshore cloudlines interacting with any boundaries pushing off the South Florida Mainland through the evening hours. High pressure will gradually build back across the Florida Keys coastal waters over the weekend. This will support generally light to gentle east to southeast breezes resuming across the Keys marine zones.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals. With that said, numerous residual boundaries lurking in the vicinity of the terminals will support additional isolated shower or thunderstorm development, mainly in the late overnight hours toward sunrise. Yet another afternoon island cloud line may also develop in the late morning or early afternoon hours tomorrow, supporting additional isolated activity. Will keep mention of VCSH out of the TAFs for now due to recent radar trends and the isolated nature to any convective development.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 91 83 91 83 / 20 20 10 30 Marathon 89 83 90 83 / 20 20 20 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.