textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor coastal flooding will continue across the Keys around high tide. Moderate coastal flooding will also be possible through early next week, especially in the Upper Keys.

- Rain chances will be at or below normal through the weekend, with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s. - The first strong cold front of the season may push through the Keys late next week, with much cooler sweater weather possible in its wake.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

A surface ridge aligned over the southeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic is responsible for light to gentle north to northeasterly breezes across the region this morning. The steady flow on warm waters is slowing nocturnal cooling and temperatures remain in the upper 70s. Dew points remain in a more comfortable range in the lower 70s. A weak lower level ridge is just about overhead with nearly zonal flow in the mid and upper levels. Last evenings sounding indicated precipitable water near the 25th percentile for the date, no low level CAPE and some inhibition. These factors have kept the Keys clear of shower activity through the evening. However, a swath of enhanced lower level moisture is being carried southward around the periphery of the lower level ridge. There is enough lower level lift along this moisture axis to support a couple of broken band of moderate showers on South Florida's Atlantic waters. Recent satellite imagery does a good job of locating the lower level moisture band and depicting modest isentropic lift.

No significant shift is expected in our synoptic scale setup. A surface ridge will remain aligned over the southeast, with weak lower level ridging overhead, and nearly zonal flow aloft. The previously mentioned moisture axis and some low level veering may support a few showers along the island chain, primarily in the Upper Keys. In addition, the steering flow will likely line up parallel with island chain for portions of the day. While low level CAPE will remain limited, so will inhibition. All this along with the modest boost in lower level moisture may support island cloud lines and a stray shower or two. As a result, maintaining slight chance of showers remains justified for today. Expect continued warm conditions with highs in the mid 80s. Dew points will remain comfortable in the lower 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

A surface ridge blanketing the southeastern United States will maintain light to gentle northeasterly breezes today. Mainland day time heating will back winds northerly on our deep gulf waters this afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the north to northeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.