textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions will continue through this evening, before winds decrease for the remainder of the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys marine zones. - Although passing showers are possible, especially overnight, significant rainfall is not expected through the weekend.

- There is increasing confidence for above normal shower and possible thunderstorm chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy conditions are expected once again by Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH island terminals through 18z Sunday afternoon. Near surface easterly winds will remain generally sustained at 12 to 15 knots, with frequent gusts near 20 knots, especially through 12z Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered shower activity will support possible brief bouts of MVFR CIGs, especially in the favored evening and overnight hours, but confidence and coverage is too low to warrant explicit inclusion in the TAFs at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 425 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A mid latitude cyclone deepening over the Great Lakes will start to change the weather pattern over the northeastern US. There is high confidence this low pressure system will have enough energy to displace the Atlantic High and weaken the broad ridge that has maintained the breezy conditions across the Florida Keys by Sunday to Monday. Slackening winds does not mean the direction is likely to shift, and low level moisture is forecast to wash over the Keys through Sunday to Monday.

Early next week, model guidance suggests the cold frontal boundary associated with the Great Lakes low will move into the Gulf. What remains of the boundary could reach the Florida Keys by mid week and provide a source of lift for showers and thunderstorms. A well developed high over the eastern United States would be responsible for pushing the frontal boundary south, and guidance suggests high confidence in another breezy to windy period for the Keys next week, possibly as early as Tuesday night. Models do not show consensus on the strength of these winds at this time. The spread from the NBM shows a range of over 20 mph at EYW for Wednesday and Thursday, so details are still up in the air. The good news is that model guidance gives medium to high confidence in a more favorable environment for midweek rainfall. Considering the extended drought conditions, any precipitation would be much appreciated.

MARINE

Issued at 1108 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. Although breezes will lull this afternoon owed to heating of the South Florida mainland, an evening nocturnal surge is expected, supporting continuation of this advisory at least through this evening. From synopsis, a broad Atlantic high will begin to weaken and move east during the first half of the weekend. There is high confidence that moderate to fresh easterly breezes will slacken during the weekend. Light to gentle breezes early next week will freshen by Wednesday in response to a strong high over the eastern United States. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by Monday night, and thunderstorms are possible after the start of the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 73 83 73 / 10 20 20 20 Marathon 82 73 82 74 / 10 30 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.