textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-A few showers may brush the island chain over the next few days. There is the potential for slight chance of thunder through Thursday, though, the better risk is across the marine area. -A strong cold front will move through the Keys on Thursday. This will bring a period of breezy to windy conditions to the Keys along with strong to potentially near gale breezes to the Florida Keys coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are becoming increasingly likely later this week.

-In the wake of the front, expect considerably cooler and drier conditions for late week through the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Light showers with MVFR ceilings are currently impacting the MTH, therefore, a TEMPO is included for the next hour. Outside of convection, near surface winds are northeasterly at 5 to 10 knots.

FORECAST

The surface ridge currently across the Southeast U.S. will continue to drift southeastward through tonight while weakening. This will result in light to gentle breezes during the day becoming mainly light for tonight. High moisture for this time of the year remains in place across the Keys leading to chances PoPs for the next several forecast periods. The exception will be tonight when rain chances drop to slight due to a subtle dip in moisture. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows estimated PWATs of 1.3 to 1.5 inches across the Keys which is between the 75th and 90th percentile for the date. In addition, a pre-frontal trough will approach the Keys Wednesday/Wednesday night. Modest instability, plenty of moisture, and a trigger being the pre- frontal trough will yield the potential for a slight chance of a thunderstorm. The better risk for a thunderstorm will remain across the marine area where the greater instability, moisture, and lift will be. Latest statistical guidance has backed off on the idea of thunder across the area, however, confidence wasn't high enough this update to remove it just yet. Most likely this will be scrutinized period by period. One of the other reasons for not removing just yet is that we will have some upper level forcing this go around which we typically don't always see in the Keys.

The main show arrives Thursday when a strong cold front will usher in Florida winter for the next several days and through the length of the extended. Temperatures and humidity are expected to tumble Thursday night. Overnight lows are expected to be 50 to 55 for Thursday night with daytime highs Friday only managing 60 to 65 degrees. The air conditioners will be able to get a well deserved break for late week through at least the middle of next week. Accompanying the frontal passage, expect a rapid surge in breezes across all the Florida Keys with breezy, becoming windy conditions anticipated along the Island Chain. For the marine area, the potential exists for a window of near gale breezes. The peak of the wind surge right now looks to be Thursday afternoon and evening before gradually slackening thereafter. Breezes will originally be westerly before shifting to the northwest to north overnight and then north by Friday morning. Breezes rapidly slacken by Friday afternoon as the gradient collapses. The cold front will push out any residual moisture resulting in a dry forecast from Thursday night through the extended.

Another reinforcing front may press through the Keys sometime Sunday/Sunday night keeping the chill going. Daytime highs through the period will be near 70 degrees and overnight lows in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Dew points will also have a hard time reaching 60 degrees after the front passes through on Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 1111 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a surface ridge stretching across the southeastern U.S. will weaken and slide southeastward through tonight. This will promote slackening breezes to light to gentle. Thereafter, a pre- frontal trough will slide across the region on Wednesday, briefly clocking winds around to the southeast initially, then southwest, and eventually west to northwest. This will be followed by a second, stronger cold front on Thursday with a round of strong to potentially near gale breezes. Small Craft Advisories are becoming increasingly likely later this week.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.