textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-A few showers may brush the island chain over the next few days. There is the potential for slight chance of thunder through Thursday, though, the better risk is across the marine area. -A strong cold front will move through the Keys on Thursday. This will bring a period of breezy to windy conditions to the Keys along with strong to potentially near gale breezes to the Florida Keys coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are becoming increasingly likely later this week.

-In the wake of the front, expect considerably cooler and drier conditions for late week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 946 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

An unusual pattern is taking shape for our area. A long dominant surface ridge has split across Florida and is shifting steadily southeastward. This is the result of broad complicated trough over the eastern United States and a strong southern stream driving eastward across the Gulf, and likely gulfstream effects. A surface trough is digging southward over Florida and the north western Bahamas resulting in light winds varying from northerly on our western waters and easterly off to the east.

Locally, moisture is quite high with a nearly saturated column from just above the surface to around 750 mb. This along with weak low level lift and ample boundaries has allowed for isolated to scattered showers to dot the forecast area. Much of this activity has been on the Florida Straits, where a few thunderstorms were seen on boundary intersections. Conditions are relatively warm and humid with temperatures in the lower 70s and dew points only a degree or two below.

Expect winds to become increasingly varying overnight as the previously mentioned surface trough pushes further across our area, tending to tip southwesterly to northwesterly, instead of the current northerly to easterly. Nothing will come in and sweep away the moisture overnight. While forecast soundings suggest the lower level flow will become less organized, there is plenty of boundaries and copious moisture. Will maintain low chance pops for the overnight period and keep mention of thunder for the Florida Straits. Overnight lows will struggle to fall below 70 there will be no cold air advection, cloudy skies will eliminate radiational cooling, and surrounding nearshore waters have now warmed into the mid 70s.

Looking ahead a bit, the next significant cold front is still on track to wash southeastward through the Keys on Thursday. In wake of this front expect winds to freshen considerably out of the northwest to north, bringing with it a good slug of cold air. Expect overnight lows to dip well into the 50s by Friday morning with dew points possibly visiting the 30's.

MARINE

Issued at 946 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

A weak pressure field across Keys waters will result in increasingly light and variable breezes. Only minor adjustments made in the evening marine update.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Very moist lower levels will contribute to bouts of MVFR and IFR ceilings at the island terminals overnight. In addition, moisture will linger overnight and a few showers will also be possible. Surface winds will be light and variable.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.