textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Light to gentle, occasionally moderate southeasterly breezes will prevail through the remainder of the weekend and into next week.
- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the remainder of the weekend and into next week. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with the usual warm and muggy conditions.
- A weak Saharan Air Layer is on track to move over the Florida Keys early next week and diminish shower coverage. Heat indices may creep towards 110 around mid week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The western flank of an Atlantic ridge now stretches westward across South Florida and the Keys. This is resulting in light to gentle southeasterly breezes across the forecast area. Nebulous anticyclonic flow is in place aloft. As a result, convective forcing is weak and largely mesoscale in nature. Currently, convective activity is at a minimum with only a few showers across our deep gulf zones. Warm conditions are in place with temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
The western flank of the surface through lower level Atlantic ridge will remain the dominant synoptic feature in the Keys through the week. This along with weak flow aloft will mean shower and thunderstorm activity will largely be a result of mesoscale and diurnal effects. Overall, rain chances will be slight to low chance. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the week with highs near or slightly above 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s. Dew points may dip a degree or two for a short period early in the week. Head index values may push towards 110 by mid week.
MARINE
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
The western flank of an Atlantic ridge will meander across South Florida through the middle of next week. As a result, surface winds will be light to gentle, predominantly out of the southeast.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. Surface winds will be light and broadly southeasterly.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 92 83 92 83 / 20 20 20 10 Marathon 89 83 89 83 / 30 30 30 20
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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