textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will press through the Keys this evening, leading to cooler temperatures, a substantial drop in humidity, and a period of windy conditions.

- Chances of rain are expected this evening for the Lower and Middle Keys with slight chances for the Upper Keys. Only a few hundredths of an inch are anticipated, especially for the Lower Keys. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. The combination of dry air and windy conditions will lead to a period of elevated fire weather concerns Monday afternoon, particularly in the Upper Keys.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A strong cold front will push through the Florida Keys between 00-02z this evening. This will be preceded by a bout of scattered showers and a quick wind shift to the northwest. VCSH is included in the TAFs at this time, along with a TEMPO for BKN low CIGs and showers reducing visibility. Near- surface winds will gust to near 30 knots after sunset, with cross- wind components near 25 knots, posing a challenge at the terminals through 12z Monday morning, briefly slackening in the late morning and afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1108 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 Winds will shift to the northwest and freshen in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage this evening from west to east. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected in the wake of the front, lasting through at least Tuesday morning. Winds will slowly slacken and veer to the northeast,then eventually shift to the east to southeast Tuesday through Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026 A nebulous pressure gradient remains across the Keys early this morning. This will result in light and variable breezes continuing for the next few to several hours. With the light and variable winds early this morning, there may be some patchy fog, especially across the SE Gulf. Any fog will quickly mix out once the sun comes up this morning. Daytime highs today will still be quite warm today near 80 degrees with lower 80s still possible. Dry air will remain entrenched across the Keys resulting in nil to near nil rain chances through late morning.

A "bring it" cold front will blast through the area this evening which is currently draped across the Florida Peninsula extending southwestward through the western Gulf and into Mexico. This front will bring another blast of much cooler weather to the Keys giving Florida a taste of winter yet again. The result will be a period of windy conditions, tumbling temperatures and humidity, and slight chances of rain. Light and variable winds this morning will become west to northwest during the day while freshening. Breezes will dramatically increase this evening with the frontal passage while also shifting to the northwest to north. Expect fresh to strong, potentially near gale breezes, beginning this evening continuing through the early part of this week. The peak breezes are expected overnight into early Monday with some slackening during the day before another surge Monday evening and overnight.

Latest guidance has become more robust with the moisture ahead of frontal passage. Therefore, chances of rain (30%) are now in the forecast for the Middle and Lower Keys with slight chances (20%) for the Upper Keys. Rainfall is not expected to amount to all that much with only a few to several hundredths of an inch anticipated. We expect a broken line of showers to move through from northwest to southeast through the Keys. The most likely time for the Island Chain is between 4pm this afternoon to 8 pm this evening. This won't bode well for the ongoing drought across Florida currently. Temperatures tonight are currently forecast to be in the mid to upper 50s (upper 40s for the Upper Keys) with highs in the lower to mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday. The coldest night is expected to be Monday night with overnight lows in the lower to mid 40s for the Upper Keys and near 50 for the Middle and Lower Keys. Tuesday night will also be quite chilly with lows 50 to 55. Wind chills in the Upper Keys Monday night may touch 35 degrees for a couple hours. However, this is still low confidence and we will continue to monitor for the potential of a cold weather product.

In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will traverse across the North Gulf Coast from early to mid next week. This will keep fresh to strong northerly winds initially before winds veer around the compass becoming east to southeast by mid to late week. Plenty of dry air will remain across the Keys yet again leading to nil rain chances. Temperatures will begin to slowly moderate towards the middle of the week, potentially reaching into the lower 80s once again by late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 58 63 52 / 30 20 0 0 Marathon 80 55 62 49 / 30 20 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.