textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets will continue through tonight due to higher high tides. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- Rain and thunder chances will decrease through early next week.

- Breezes will slowly slacken from gentle to moderate to light to gentle across the Keys waters over the next day or so.

UPDATE

Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 The synoptic picture reveals a narrow mid/upper level ridge axis oriented in a SW-NE fashion across the eastern Gulf, FL peninsula, and out into the western Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, there are two upper level lows in place with one south of Bermuda dropping southward throughout the day and the other in the SW Gulf, which has as inverted surface trough associated with this feature. Additionally, there is an expansive surface high in the western Atlantic basin, helping to provide a southeasterly flow pattern on the southern flank of this feature and the eastern side of the inverted surface trough in the western Gulf. The 12Z KEY RAOB shows the SE flow pattern from the surface through about 500 mb with a turn to a north-northwest direction in the upper levels on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge aloft. There was also a much more noticeable dry layer in the low to mid levels compared to the more saturated appearances to the profiles in the recent wet days that have been experienced. Thus, today is a transition day for the Florida Keys as the deeper moisture axis that has been persistent across the region has now finally shifted further to the west and will be directed more to the northern Gulf Coast at this time. There is also now a lack of meaningful forcing for ascent locally given the positioning of the ridge and the greater distance from either of the two previously mentioned upper level lows. However, this doesn't mean that today will be completely dry as PWATs on the 12Z sounding were still measured at 1.9 inches, which is right around the daily mean for early October. The lingering moisture coupled with speed convergence within the southeasterly flow regime will support quick moving isolated to scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms at times but PoPs will remain around 25-35%. Thus, much more typical PoP values for this time of the year. The one other thing to note is that dewpoint values may approach 80 at times across the Island Chain, which are enhanced by the additional evaporation that is likely ongoing after the multiple days of heavy rainfall. As a result, heat indices will possibly peak in the 105-107 range so heat safety precautions are encouraged for those spending any time outdoors.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 A much less eventful night unfolded for the Florida Keys last night. Isolated showers have been popping up in various locations throughout the distant Straits and nearshore waters but nothing that has amounted to much. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s making for another muggy morning. Along the Reef, marine locations are recording east to southeast winds at near 15 knots. These moderate east to southeast breezes should start to gradually decrease throughout the day as Atlantic High Pressure settles. A relief from the large amounts of rain we've experienced over the last few days is expected as rain chances settle back to near normal for this time of year over the next few days. Later this week, more moisture could push into the area bringing another period of higher rain chances by mid week.

MARINE

Issued at 517 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys islands. From synopsis, Atlantic high pressure offshore of the southeastern U.S. will remain in place throughout the remainder of the weekend. This feature will maintain moderate east to southeasterly breezes through tonight but a gradual slackening trend will occur through the remainder the weekend and into early next week. In addition, relatively drier weather conditions will settle in for the weekend, though isolated to scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms could still occur at times. A cold front then stalls across northern Florida into the new work week with highest rain chances remaining north of the Florida Keys, but precipitation chances will still remain around 20 to 30 percent daily into next week.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.