textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys as ponding of salt water over low lying roads will continue, especially around times of high tide.

- Drier and cooler weather expected to continue through overnight with lows in the upper 60s.

- Breezy to windy conditions are expected to quickly return by Sunday night as a strong high pressure settles along the Eastern Seaboard and builds south across our area.

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

Issued at 900 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 Cool and dry weather conditions have made for a stunning evening for the Florida Keys! Preliminary daytime high temperatures actually occurred very early this morning. Our daily climate summary from the ASOS station at Key West International Airport showed a daily high temperature of 75F that occurred at 4:21 AM. As of this evening, the daily low temperature was recorded at 69F at 5 PM. This is courtesy of cold air advection that has occurred behind the initial cold frontal passage last night. Current temperatures along the island chain are near 70F so as our night progresses, temperatures will likely come down a few more degrees and the daily low temperature will likely need to be adjusted. It is worth noting the advertised forecast reflects lows in the upper 60s. Rather than updating the entire forecast package, we will just note here that there may be a greater spread of temperatures as some locations will dip into the mid 60s.

Overnight, generally moderate breezes will decrease slightly as high pressure continues to build into the eastern U.S. The notably dry air on our 00Z KKEY sounding will ensure rain chances remain zero through the overnight hours. Our sounding showed a calculated PWAT of 0.88. However, most of this moisture was in a layer between approximately 14,000 ft and 23,000 ft. GOES-19 Cloud Top imagery shows a broken swath of stratus clouds aloft, but there is also an expansive area of lower level clouds across the nearby waters. The stratus deck is blocking our view of the lower clouds near the island chain, but trends from earlier this evening indicate that the airmass coming off of the peninsula has not been immediately influenced by the Bay and Gulf waters. Overall, weather conditions will continue to be cool, dry, and uneventful overnight.

No changes or updates are going to be made with this evening update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 The extended forecast will feature a transition from cool dry conditions to a breezier gradually warmer pattern early next week. As surface high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic, winds will shift to the northeast to east while the air gradually moistens and winds freshen. A mid-level shortwave will then move southward through the Southern Plains towards the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday supporting development of a possible low pressure over the western Gulf. Although developing low and frontal boundaries are expected to remain well removed from the Keys a tightening pressure gradient between the Gulf low and high pressure over the eastern US which will likely result in freshening northeast to east breezes and further increases in moisture. By Tuesday things are expected to shift easterly in the Gulf and near the Bahamas. Impacts are expected to be breezy to windy conditions with higher rain chances but at this time is not expected to be a heavy rainfall event. Uncertainty past Wednesday increases as models have different ideas of whats going to happen in terms of rain and winds. Regardless temperatures should continue on the gradual warming trend with high returning to upper 70s to lower 80s and slight to chance showers for the remainder of the work week.

MARINE

Issued at 900 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. However, boaters should be aware of reduced clearance underneath fixed bridges at times of high tide along the Middle and Upper Keys where a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect. A cold front situated south of our area will continue to meander as high pressure develops over the eastern U.S. This will lead to a brief period of gentle to modestly moderate breezes overnight and into tomorrow morning. As the high strengthens, the gradient at the surface will tighten and winds will freshen again by tomorrow night. Small Craft Exercise Caution and hazard headlines may be required as early as tomorrow afternoon. These fresh to strong winds will prevail through most, if not all, of next week with peak rain chances (50% to 70%) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 900 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF period with only SCT to BKN skies above FL150. Crosswind concerns will remain low at the beginning of the period due to N to NNE wind directions near 10 knots, but the directions will veer to the NE during the overnight with the current TAF package reflecting the wind shift. Dry air in place will keep rain chances near zero.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 68 80 73 82 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 67 80 73 82 / 0 0 0 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.