textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will be the primary weather concern over the next seven days as indices will approach the upper 100s during the afternoons.

- A Saharan Air Layer will linger across the Keys this week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best.

- As we approach closer to the new moon, tide levels will rise but should remain below Coastal Flood Statement levels at this time. Persistent puddles in the typical low spots during high tide are likely saltwater.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) remains solidly in place across the Keys tonight as noted on the evening sounding. This is maintaining a staunch dry layer situated between 950 and 600 mb. As a result, even clouds are struggling to develop or maintain themselves. The only clouds to be had are some cirrus blowing off cumulonimbus towers that have developed across west central Florida and are moving southwest over us.

The SAL will keep us shutdown for the overnight with near zero rain chances. Winds will remain east to southeast thanks to low level ridging that remains parked across the area.

As a side note, we are getting closer to the new moon which will peak overnight. This is causing tide levels to come up, however, levels should hold below Coastal Flood Statement. Nonetheless, some water may be seen on the lowest lying elevation roads/drains, etc.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A ridge axis will stretch west across Central and South Florida this week, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes. The wind speeds will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours before decreasing slightly in the morning and afternoon hours. In addition, a large area of Saharan dust will remain in place across the area for several days and this will result in a rain-free forecast through at least the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight with generally east to southeast near surface winds.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 441 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The forecast for the next several days will remain fairly benign. A rather large plume of Saharan dust has moved over the region and is expected to remain in place throughout the week and into next weekend. This will act to place a lid on any shower and thunderstorm activity for much of the week. However, there is a TUTT cell that will rotate northwestward as we head into the middle of the week. This TUTT cell may help to provide the lift needed to instigate some shower and thunderstorm activity, especially across western portions of the Florida Keys. Besides that, heat will be the main concern with highs in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the mid 80s which won't provide much relief from the daytime heat. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s resulting in in heat index values of 105 to 108 degrees just under Heat Advisory criteria. Breezes will tend to peak overnight and lull during the daytime hours while remaining east to southeasterly.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.