textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the Keys Coastal Waters.

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods.

- Uncertainty remains high for the end of the week and into this weekend with rain chances. - A general 1-3" of rainfall and thunderstorms, with locally higher amounts, are possible at most island communities Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 953 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

A broad surface Atlantic ridge stretching westward into the southeastern United States is maintaining moderate to fresh southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. Meanwhile, the Keys remain under the western flank of deep layered ridging. As a result, this evenings sounding indicated precipitable was around 1.39 inches, slightly above the 25% for this time of year. There was also a slight nose of inhibition based around 950 mb. Despite this, some late showers and thunderstorms of Cuban origin was able to propagate into our outer western Florida Straits, and isolated weaker activity was approaching the Upper Keys across the eastern Straits.

The Atlantic ridge will meander in place through the overnight period. Winds should come down a notch due to the usual evening surge dissipating. Shower and thunderstorm chances should edge upwards overnight as forecast soundings suggest some moistening through the lowest levels as the inhibition layer weakens slightly. In addition, a deep plume of moisture is rounding the ridge just to our west where there is higher convective coverage. Breezy conditions ease off a bit late in the night. The steady flow will keep overnight lows well above normal in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 953 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

A surface Atlantic pressure ridge extends westward to the southeastern United States and is generating moderate to fresh breezes across Keys waters tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys waters save the deep Gulf zones. Expect winds to trend slightly downwards overnight due to the loss of the usual evening surge.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 953 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. With that said there will be a chance for brief showers, and even a thunderstorm will be possible. Aside from convection, surface winds will be moderate to fresh out of the southeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031-032-035-042>044-052>055-072>075.