textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunder chances will remain above normal tonight and tomorrow, and will gradually decrease into the midweek.

- Heat indices may approach 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities, especially in the Upper Keys.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Prevailing conditions at both island terminals will remain VFR, but pockets of showers and thunderstorms in the general area may occasionally trigger MVFR to IFR conditions. Reduced categories will mainly be influenced by low CIGs, but heavier rain could result in reduced visibility as well. Opting to keep TAFs VFR with a general VCSH or VCTS, but last minute amendments may be needed if cells pop up near either terminals. Winds will generally be light and variable during the first 6 hours of the TAF period, and will assume a west southwesterly component after sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Surface troughing will remain across the Eastern Seaboard and the western North Atlantic today and tonight, and will keep moisture locked in across the area. Slightly drier air will move in late tonight, resulting in rain chances dropping to slightly above normal (40%). Another trough is expected to swing down from Canada sliding across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid- Atlantic. This will reinforce the current troughing already in place. At the surface, a frontal boundary will remain draped across North Florida and Georgia for the next several days. This is quite unusual for this time of the year. Due to this, it will keep a fairly unsettled pattern across north to central Florida as the moisture focuses across this area. Drier air is expected to move into the Keys due to the ridge across the Atlantic leading to decreasing rain chances. The heat will become the main story again especially from mid week onward. Daytime highs will be in the lower 90s and overnight lows in the lower 80s with some mid 80s from mid to late week. Dew points in the mid to upper 70s will lead to heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees.

Breezes will freshen to gentle to moderate as the high across the Atlantic and the front across Florida act in tandem with one another leading to an increased pressure gradient, especially for mid week. After mid week, the gradient relaxes some and breezes relax back to light to gentle.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Widely spread showers with embedded thunderstorms will lead to locally stronger winds and higher seas/rougher waters at times across virtually all of our marine zones today. The strongest activity will be capable of producing gusty and erratic winds of 25 to 30 knots, blinding downpours, and frequent lightning strikes. Otherwise, activity should very gradually diminish as the environment becomes worked over. Outside of this activity, generally light to moderate west to northwest breezes will back to the southwest to west tonight with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 82 90 82 91 / 30 40 20 20 Marathon 81 91 82 91 / 50 50 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.