textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Dew points in the mid 70s, combined with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and lows near 80F, will support potential moderate to major heat risk concerns through Sunday.

- Rain and thunder chances will remain near zero for the Keys through the weekend.

- Limited total rainfall amounts are expected through early next week for most island communities. This will continue to exacerbate existing drought conditions across the Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled a very dry and stable profile for this time of year. KBYX Doppler radar has only been detecting northward bird migration all night, with derived products indicating all reflectivity signatures non-meteorological in nature. Land- based surface observations indicate temperatures have struggled to drop overnight, landing in the upper 70s at most communities. Synoptic surface analysis places the Florida Keys under the continued loose influence of a weak high pressure system centered somewhere east of the Bahamas, with a late spring frontal system extending from the Gulf states northeastward to the Mid- Atlantic. The interaction of these features has supported a rather pronounced nocturnal wind surge across our marine zones. Further aloft, the evening sounding at KEY also sampled rising geopotential heights above the 925 mb isobaric surface, indicative of continued amplifying mid- and upper-level ridging over the Florida Keys.

The ridge becoming centered over South Florida will support mostly clear skies, near- nil rain and thunder chances, and very warm conditions for the next several days across the Keys. All available numerical weather prediction guidance supports dew points remaining in the summer-like levels of the mid 70s through at least Sunday. Limited diurnal change is expected, with highs generally peaking in the upper 80s, and lows struggling to reach below 80F through the weekend. Heat indices will likely flirt with 100F for the first time this year in many communities.

Most ensemble mean fields do suggest a mid-latitude trough will try to drive a second frontal system close to the Keys by early next week. However, owed to the amplified nature of the previously discussed ridge, this front will likely struggle to push through the Keys before likely decaying. A slight chance of rain and thunder, along with a few degrees decline in dewpoints and temperature, is all that is expected at this time for early next week. Drought conditions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future in this scenario.

MARINE

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 A wind surge overnight has supported slightly overproducing southeasterly breezes, occasionally sustained 10 to 15 knots across the Keys marine zones. These breezes should slacken shortly after sunrise, becoming light to gentle. From synopsis, a series of weak high pressure systems in the west- central North Atlantic will support light to gentle, mainly southeasterly, breezes over the next several days. Strong upper-level ridging across the Gulf eastward to the Bahamas will also yield near- nil rain and thunder chances through the weekend. As a weak frontal boundary approaches the Florida Keys early next week, there may be a slight uptick in rain and thunder chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 VFR conditions will persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through 06z Friday morning. Near surface winds will remain generally light to gentle out of the southeast through the late morning or early afternoon hours, then becoming light and variable.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 89 79 88 80 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 86 79 86 81 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.