textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions will ensue Friday, continuing through at least early next week. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for all Keys waters, with near-gale conditions possible.

- Frequent fast-moving showers with possible thunderstorms will push through the Keys at times, mainly Friday night through Monday.

- Seasonal king tides combined with northeasterly winds will lead to coastal flooding through early next week, with the greatest impacts in the Upper Keys.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The aforementioned high will continue to strengthen as it slides eastward and builds southward. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will begin to fester near the Bahamas which will start to increase the moisture across the Keys. Therefore, expect freshening breezes today and tonight out of the north to northeast, though, breezes may briefly relax again for a time this afternoon into the evening as Florida heats up. This may briefly interrupt the overall pattern across the area leading to a slackening of the breezes due to a weak thermal low that may try and develop over South Florida. This weak low will but dissipate tonight once the sun sets and South Florida cools leading to freshening breezes everywhere once again as the gradient congeals. Moisture will continue to slowly increase today with even deeper moisture moving in tonight. Therefore, increasing rain chances are expected over the next few forecast periods. Current thinking is any showers will be confined to the Upper Keys and that would be later in the day with the Middle and Lower Keys maybe squeaking out one more completely dry day. Temperatures remain cool in the lower to mid 80s for highs and overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. There is the potential chance for another radiational cooling period tonight when the winds collapse before increasing overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, Subtropical Storm Josephine off the Mid- Atlantic will continue to lift slowly northward today, though, high pressure building in behind it will help to re- strengthen the pressure gradient across the Keys, supporting freshening breezes. Meanwhile, a broad low pressure system will fester near the southeastern Bahamas late Friday through the weekend. The resulting tightening pressure gradient as these systems interact will support strong to potentially near gale northeasterly breezes by Sunday or Sunday night. The freshening breezes and a surge of moisture will also support elevated rain and thunder chances over the weekend through Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mostly north to northeast. Dry air remains entrenched across the Keys keeping rain chances near nil. However, as moisture begins to slowly increase across the area tonight, there is the potential for a passing shower that may affect either terminal. Due to low confidence and probability, VCSH was not included in the TAF at this time.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2019, the daily record cold high temperature of 75F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 75 82 74 / 0 20 20 50 Marathon 83 74 82 74 / 10 20 40 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ076.

GM...None.