textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- There is increased confidence for an extended period of wet and windy conditions across the Florida Keys this weekend into at least early next week.

- A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Current rainfall estimates are generally between 2-4" inches, with isolated higher amounts, from Saturday through Tuesday. This could lead to localized flooding, especially at high tide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 An interesting radar and synoptic evolution today. A weak frontal boundary draped across the Straits of Florida through early this morning has since nudged back north of the Florida Keys. This is supported by dew points rebounding across the Island Chain back into the mid to upper 70s over the last couple hours. Despite large- scale lift from this feature, convection south of the Keys has recently waned. We attribute this fizzling convection to a 850-700 pocked of quite dry air that has advected from the south. KBYX radar is only depicting a few isolated showers across the western coastal waters of the Florida Keys, with GOES-19 visible satellite imagery detecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies across the forecast area.

We expect the lull in convective activity to continue throughout much of the overnight hours. Thereafter, the CIMSS atmospheric- integrated precipitable water product highlights a surge of increased moisture currently residing north of eastern Cuba approaching the Keys around sunrise. Most convective allowing model (CAM) guidance supports this evolution. As the frontal feature continues to progress northward back towards Central Florida, this should support continued elevated moisture throughout much of the troposphere. We continue to advertise somewhat elevated rain chances through the end of the work week.

The synoptic pattern and resulting forecast becomes increasingly complicated and impactful for the weekend through early next week. As a large ridge dominates the eastern half of the CONUS, a positively tilted shortwave trough currently in the Rockies will lift northeastward over the ridge, then merge with another shortwave trough currently near British Columbia. As the merged trough amplifies, this will support surface cyclogenesis over the Mississippi Valley on Thursday, driving a strong early season cold front southwestward towards the Southeast late in the week and into the weekend. As is often the case this time of year, the warm ocean temperatures across the Keys will likely help to stall the front somewhere in the vicinity of Central and Southern Florida early Sunday. Confidence continues to increase for this scenario in terms of run-to-run and and model-to-model ensemble consistency, supporting an extended period of veered winds and copious moisture. Coupled with synoptic lift just to the north, frequent bouts of showers and thunderstorms and windy conditions can be expected for late in the weekend through at least early next week. Outside of hazardous marine conditions, our attention will be focused on how any localized heavy downpours interact with already elevated high tides.

MARINE

Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 High pressure centered just off the Southeast coastline will interact with a weak frontal boundary stalled over the Straits of Florida. This will promote gentle to moderate easterly breezes over the next several days. Late week, a second, much stronger front, is expected to driving southeastward through the Gulf towards the Florida Keys over the weekend before stalling. Fresh to strong breezes, along with squally conditions, will be possible for the latter part of the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required for portions or all of the Florida Keys marine zones by Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Although a few passing showers cannot be ruled out, VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through at least the late overnight hours. Thereafter, a surge of moisture from the southeast should support more coverage in activity, first at MTH, then later at EYW. Due to uncertainty in timing, as well as possible limited impacts to VIS and CIGs, have only included mention of VCSH at both terminals for the second half of the TAF period for now, and this will continue to be reevaluated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 88 79 87 80 / 20 30 50 50 Marathon 87 81 86 81 / 20 30 50 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.