textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light and variable winds early in the overnight will become southeast and fresh by early Monday morning.

- A more active weather pattern will develop for the new work week with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- Highest rain chances are expected to occur late Tuesday into Wednesday with a brief lull, followed by another round of higher chances for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1051 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

This evening has been interesting to say the least. Tonight's sounding revealed a very weak (pretty nonexistent) cap with plenty of instability. Unfortunately, as is usually the case, we lacked substantial organized lift. What showers and brief thunderstorms we got were a product of an outflow coming down from South Florida and lingering daytime boundaries that managed to collide with enough force. We continue to be under a rather weak and nebulous flow with light and variable winds at times. This is not helping to move mass in a big hurry.

Looking ahead for the remainder of the overnight, convection should begin to have a better time developing. Currently we have two outflow boundaries from Cuba and Andros Island converging across the distant eastern Straits. Most of the convection along the leading edges of these boundaries have been dissipating as they moved away from their parent sources. However, some new activity is beginning to take shape as the outflow from Andros still has enough forward momentum and lift associated with it. Time will tell if this new rash of convection manages to make much of a westward progress overnight. Otherwise, the island chain and surrounding coastal waters should see a more noticeable change in wind direction from the southeast as well as an increase in speeds.

MARINE

Issued at 1051 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to wax and wane across mainly the eastern waters off the Upper Keys, including the Florida Bay. The activity north of the island chain has been mostly stationary while the activity in the Straits seems to be gaining some westward momentum. Winds will continue to cycle between light and variable at times to light to gentle from the southeast as the Florida Keys remain on the western extent of the Atlantic Ridge. Ridge will finally shift west on Wednesday allowing for occasional periods of gentle to moderate breezes to return. In addition, moisture will increase on the initial surge of winds on Wednesday leading to a higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms. An easterly wave is poised to move in at the end of the week with another enhanced chances for convection.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions expected through the overnight. There is a chance that showers and thunderstorms may develop near or in the vicinity of the terminals with MTH having a higher chances of seeing something. Most of this activity should it develop will wane towards dawn.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.