textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat risk continues to be moderate to major today. Tonight, a shift to northeasterly light breezes will provide some relief from the humidity.

- A weak frontal boundary moving south towards the Keys mid week will increase chances for rainfall and thunderstorms.

- Breezes on track to remain light to gentle through the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 The heat has been rather absurd across the Florida Keys. Yesterday's temperatures reached 90F at Key West, and the warm low of 84 degrees tied the monthly record. Dew points rose to 78 degrees at the airport, which was about 8 degrees above the average value. Heat indices rose to 100 to 105F during the worst of the heating. Summer is on its way, for better and worse.

Despite the unrelenting heat and humidity, the first signs of a pattern change are visible. KBYX radar returns this morning are observing showers in the easternmost Florida Straits. Aloft, streams of high altitude cirrus clouds are beginning to increase in coverage. West of Tampa, a weak frontal boundary is slowly making its way towards the Keys. A slight reprieve is on its way.

Exactly where and when showers are forecast to develop is still uncertain. Lift along the frontal boundary is likely to be diffuse instead of focused, and despite the increased moisture from the boundary, a significant amount of dry air aloft is expected to linger over the Keys. The amount of potential rain is unlikely to help against the ongoing drought. In addition, this period of increased moisture chances, 30 percent at points during the middle of the week, is not expected to last long. A redeveloping high pressure system over the eastern United States later this week will be able to push what remains of the frontal boundary into the Atlantic. Afterwards, the pattern favors returning to the hot and muggy weather we're currently seeing. Make sure to stay cool, stay hydrated, and do what you can to manage the heat.

MARINE

Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys nearshore waters. From synopsis, gentle southeasterly breezes will begin to slacken today while a weak frontal boundary moves into the northern Gulf. Dry layers of air above the surface will keep shower chances low through tonight, though the front may be able to bring a plume of moisture and increased rain chances as early as Tuesday. Periods of variable winds are expected during the week, and there is high confidence that breezes will remain light throughout the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Cloud cover at FL200 will wax and wane, while low cloud cover slowly increases during the day. Occasional periods of MVFR CIGs cannot be ruled out. Near surface southeasterlies will persist until evening at the latest. Winds may begin to back northeasterly during the last few hours of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 81 91 79 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 87 81 87 79 / 10 10 20 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.