textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle broadly southeasterly breezes will prevail through the weekend.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the holiday weekend. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with the usual hot and muggy conditions.

- A Saharan Air Layer is on track to move over the Florida Keys early next week and significantly reduce shower coverage. Heat is expected to be the hazard of concern through next weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Showers and thunderstorms formed mostly over the Outer Gulf waters this morning and afternoon. The most vigorous thunderstorms managed to form over near the Towers and sent outflow boundaries back towards the Keys. These boundaries are struggling to reach the Keys, especially as breezes across the reef remain light to gentle southeasterlies. However, breezes are on track to before sunset. Cloud lines are beginning to form northwest of the Lower Keys. The primary concern for the evening will be if the outflow boundary is able to reach the Lower Keys and interact with the existing cloud lines. In the Upper Keys, the concern of interest will be outflow boundaries sinking south from Southern Florida convection.

From synopsis, light to gentle breezes persist across the Florida Keys waters. Shower chances will oscillate between a slight and a chance of showers this weekend before a Saharan Air Layer moves over the offshore waters. Expect breezes to shift between easterly and southerly while the western flank of the Atlantic high meanders across Southern Florida through the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH. Individual showers are percolating in the vicinity of the terminals, and further cloud line development is possible as winds slacken and shift a bit more easterly. Drier air is beginning to filter into the Keys airspace, so VCSH is absent from the TAFs after sunset. Near surface winds are forecast to remain between 5 and 10 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026 Sloppy surface through lower level ridging across Florida and the southeast is responsible for light mostly southeasterly breezes across the Keys this morning. Conditions are seasonable with temperatures in the lower 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. Last evenings sounding indicated ample instability and deep layered moisture. As a result, a few clusters of showers with an embedded thunderstorm or two have been present across the forecast area.

The western flank of Atlantic ridging will build across the Florida Peninsula this weekend. This will result in light to gentle mostly southeasterly breezes across the Keys this weekend. This seasonable regime will persist well into next week, and result in near normal temperatures with highs near 90 and lows in the lower 80s. Dew points will linger in the mid to upper 70s. Nebulous flow aloft and dominant ridging through the lower troposphere should result in near normal slight to low chances for showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 92 83 92 / 20 20 10 20 Marathon 83 89 83 90 / 30 30 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.