textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- There is increased confidence for an extended period of wet and windy conditions across the Florida Keys this weekend into at least early next week.

- A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required by Sunday for portions or all of the Keys coastal waters. - Current rainfall estimates are generally between 2-4" inches, with isolated higher amounts, from Saturday through Tuesday. This could lead to localized flooding, especially at high tide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 The 12z sounding at KEY continues to highlight a battle of air masses enveloping the Florida Keys. At the low levels, relatively steep low level lapse rates, limited inhibition, and a modestly veered profile indicate summer continuing to reign supreme across the Keys. On the other hand, there is formidable dry air above 700 mb, indicating upper level ridging in the wake of a trough associated with a surface frontal feature has taken hold of the Keys. KBYX doppler radar is highlighting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the marine zones south of the Florida Keys. This is likely associated a zone of confluence along and south of the residual surface front. There is a subtle radar reflectivity northward trend over the past couple of hours, indicating this activity may try to clip portions of the Keys later this afternoon and evening. We will continue to monitor these radar trends. Other than to add Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the southeast Gulf to account for slightly higher wind speeds than expected early in the first period, no changes proposed to the inherited overnight forecast package.

MARINE

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease across the southeastern Gulf, including the Dry Tortugas. With the heating of the Florida Mainland, these winds should modestly slacken later this afternoon and evening. From synopsis, high pressure centered just off the Southeast coastline will interact with a weak frontal boundary stalled over the Straits of Florida. This will promote gentle to moderate easterly breezes over the next several days. Late week, a second, much stronger front, is expected to driving southeastward through the Gulf towards the Florida Keys over the weekend before stalling. Fresh to strong breezes, along with squally conditions, will be possible for the latter part of the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory likely will be required for portions or all of the Florida Keys marine zones by Sunday.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 While VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period, bouts of scattered showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms will try to clip the terminals at times. This is most likely through the early afternoon hours, before a period of stabilization occurs to limit further development for some time. Have included a window of VCSH in the TAFs for now due to quite a bit of uncertainty how north the activity currently south of the Keys advances, and this will be reevaluated for the 18z afternoon TAF issuance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 88 81 89 82 / 40 50 40 40 Marathon 88 81 89 82 / 40 40 40 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.