textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal rain chances (around 50-70%) will linger across the Florida Keys for the remainder of the work week and at least into the weekend.

- Our current confidence in the rainfall totals is low, although most locations in the Keys can generally expect 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, through Saturday.

- Gentle to moderate (10 to 15 mph) easterly breezes will gradually relax late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Deep layered ridging has become centered over the southeastern United States. As a result, a robust surface high aligned along the Atlantic coast is building south and southwestward into Florida. In turn, local winds have picked up to a moderate northeast to easterly breeze. Precipitable water came in at just over 2 inches in last evenings sounding and CAPE was ample with little to no inhibition. This has set the stage for scattered fast moving showers and a few thunderstorms blanketing the broader area in a relatively low shear environment.

The wet pattern is expected to get wetter over the next couple of days. Ridging to our north will maintain a moderate northeast to easterly steering flow that will encourage a deeper boundary layer, moisture flux and cell formation. In addition, complicated mid and upper level troughing will congeal over the Bahamas and contribute to a broad lower level trough underneath. The already ample moisture along with lower mid level heights, and broad lower level troughing should result in rain chances ticking higher over the next couple of days. No significant trend in temperatures are expected. Highs should still be able to push near 90 with lows in the lower 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Rain chances may be slow to come down later in the week and this weekend. The surface high to our north will gradually transition into the Atlantic and weaken while the low/trough complex over us will try to shift westward into the Gulf. This will keep deep layered moisture elevated across our region as a broad zone of moist confluent flow will naturally persist between the nearby trough and the high which will have moved off the Atlantic coast. While winds are expected to trend downwards through this timeframe, there is enough in place to maintain high to likely rain chances through the medium range forecast, and possibly even longer. With all that said, uncertainty is usually high.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

High pressure building down the eastern United States will maintain mostly moderate northeasterly breezes across Keys waters for the next couple of days. Thereafter the high will weaken and gradually push out into the Atlantic while broad troughing shifts westward across our area. As a result, winds will gradually trend downwards and veer east to southeasterly.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A wet weather pattern is in place across the Keys. Short periods of sub VFR conditions are likely due to passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the northeast to east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 91 81 91 80 / 60 60 50 70 Marathon 90 81 89 81 / 60 60 60 70

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.