textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler, drier, and windy conditions will persist through the overnight and into Tuesday. Winds will significantly decrease during the morning hours of Tuesday.

- Rain chances will be zero through at least mid week. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. The combination of dry air and windy conditions will promote a period of elevated fire weather concerns through this afternoon, particularly in the Upper Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Fresh to strong breezes continue to afternoon across the nearshore and offshore waters west of the Channel 5 Bridge. Waters east of the Channel 5 Bridge are seeing an afternoon lull thanks to daytime heating across the mainland. Here breezes are moderate to occasionally fresh. This brief lull is end shortly after sunrise as a drainage wind develops off the Mainland. Expecting widespread fresh to strong breezes across all waters this evening and overnight. Fresh breezes will continue into early Tuesday before drastically slackening through the rest of the day. As high pressure builds in across the Southeast U.S., breezes will momentarily peak and lull Tuesday night through Thursday. Then breezes slacken to light to gentle towards the end of the week, while gradually clocking around to the northeast to east and eventually southeast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. A northerly crosswind magnitude of 20 to 25 knots will continue for both EYW and MTH terminals through at least the overnight. Winds will gradually slacken during the day on Tuesday while becoming more east of north.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

A strong cold front blasted through the Keys late yesterday. The front brought with it strong northerly breezes and much cooler temperatures. Very windy conditions persist this morning and temperatures have fallen broadly to near 60 degrees. Dew points plunged into the 40s. Last evenings sounding came in before the cold air advection really took off. Looking to forecast soundings and satellite imagery, very stable post cold front conditions prevail. Skies along the island chain are mostly clear with lower level clouds evident across the forecast area.

A mid latitude low off the Atlantic Coast will drive northeastward today while a strong high pours southward through the Plains. The overall pressure gradient will loosen only slightly today. This along with day time heating should help to slightly diminish breezes across the Keys. Expect a more dramatic drop across the Upper Keys, which is in the direct lee of South Florida. The ongoing cold air advection will result in highs struggling to reach the mid 60s, while dew points remain in the 40s.

While the Atlantic low will be far away by tonight, the continental high will continue to drive southward towards the Gulf Coast. This will maintain robust northerly breezes. In addition, a well developed land breeze overnight will likely nudge breezes upwards slightly and help to flush even cooler and drier air across the Keys. Overnight lows will average near 50 degrees. Portions of the Upper Keys may see wind chill values in the mid 30s. Stable, rain free conditions are expected.

Heading through mid week, fairly rapid moderation is expected. The earlier mentioned surface high will steadily march east southeastward across Florida then elongate out into the Atlantic. Breezes will relax substantially on Tuesday, then gradually clock northeast then easterly. How quickly winds veer will be highly dependent on how cool the nearshore waters are and the synoptic pressure gradient. Bay waters will likely cool to near 60 by Tuesday, but warm quite a bit over the following couple of days. Guidance suggests winds will become moderate and try to shift east to southeast on Wednesday as the high pushes out into the Atlantic. After another cool Wednesday morning due to potential radiational cooling, expect a return to slightly above normal through the later part of the week.

Rain chances will creep back into the forecast through the back half of the week. This is due to a fairly amplified mid latitude trough lingering over the eastern United States setting up a moist confluent zone across the far southeastern United States. At this point, rain cannot be ruled out. However, the best confluence is expected to be north of our area and the Keys remain relatively close to the lower ridge axis. In addition, while bouts of organized veering are evident in forecast soundings, the windows of opportunity are small, often cut short by Cuban inhibition. For now will maintain slight chance PoPs through the extended.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 53 63 57 72 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 51 60 57 72 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EST for FLZ076.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.