textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal rain and thunder chances will continue through tonight and into early tomorrow morning.

- Rain and thunder chances will see a slight uptick sometime Wednesday evening as the larger scale unsettled weather pattern shifts. Confidence remains low as to how long this stretch of wet weather will linger for.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 We continue to see generally quiet weather across the Florida Keys this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s, and dew points are sitting in the mid to upper 70s. Usually the upper 70s is where things start to feel a little sticky or heavy, but we have had light breezes that have kept the air moving. Looking very close to home, we just so happen to be in an environment generally unfavorable for active weather. We are still lacking a source of meaningful lift, and the occasional light showers that we have seen on our KBYX radar have diminished quickly after development, telling us that the environment isn't necessarily conducive to support ongoing activity. A stray shower or two tonight cannot reasonably be ruled out, so we will continue to advertise a slight chance (nearly 10%) of showers and thunderstorms for now.

By tomorrow, rainfall chances increase as the front draped across northern Florida continues to slowly crawl into the peninsula. While a better moisture gradient will set up, the initial southerly flow may inhibit initial shower activity via Cuban shadow. Even though we have a 30% chance of rain tomorrow along the Keys, it will be a little less than that during the morning and a little more than that later tomorrow night. Since the gradient will be set up someone through central Florida, the best chances for active weather will be offshore to our north. There is still low confidence regarding just how much rain we could see as this will depend on how far south the boundary can get.

Ensemble guidance suggests that there is an opportunity for rain chances to diminish by sometime Friday, but the deepening cold front is going to interact a weak area of unsettled weather currently across central and eastern Cuba. This feature is noted on CIMSS vorticity analysis in the lower to middle levels. While there hasn't been significantly unsettled weather associated with it over the past couple of days, this additional instability could encourage additional activity through the weekend. Ensemble guidance is currently highlighting elevated winds, better chances for showers and thunderstorms, and cloudier skies. Where guidance is falling a little short is with respect to the timeframe where the best chances of active weather will be. Some ensemble members suggest measurable rainfall, particularly along the island chain, may arrive as early as late Friday night while other members suggest a lull through Saturday afternoon. It seems this will depend on how much interaction we get between the cold front, the arbitrary wave from Cuba, and Invest 92L in the western Gulf waters. We do want to note though that Invest 92L does not currently pose a threat to the Florida Keys, it may just serve as another source for moisture reinforcement over the weekend, and into early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. Relatively mild marine conditions will continue through the overnight and early morning hours tomorrow with only isolated showers and light to gentle southerly breezes. As a cold front currently draped across northern Florida slowly pushes southward, rain and thunder chances will increase by Thursday, particularly across the waters to the west and north of the island chain. A short break may take place sometime Friday morning or afternoon, but the weekend will see an additional push of moisture from an area of unsettled weather currently in the central and eastern area of Cuba. This could lead to more widely spread showers and thunderstorms, and their accompanying hazards, through the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 244 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail with only FEW to SCT skies near FL025. Weather at both terminals is expected to stay dry due to only isolated, light showers expected through most of the TAF period. However, and approaching cold front may lead to better rain chances near the very end of the TAF period. Opting to keep the 18Z package dry due to low confidence in timing of rain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 88 79 88 78 / 20 20 30 40 Marathon 87 80 87 79 / 20 20 30 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.