textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A wetter pattern is setting up, and chances for rain and thunder will remain elevated through early next week. There is a potential for a couple of strong thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts being the main threat today and tonight.

- Breezy to windy conditions may develop as early as Tuesday, and are expected to continue through most of the week. - Moderate drought conditions will persist for the entire island chain, however, beneficial rains will lead to improving conditions next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 While VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period, showers and thunderstorms requiring TEMPOs will be possible this afternoon, and another round late tonight. Stronger cells will reduce visbility, lower cloud coverage, and cause wind gusts of near 25 knots. Outside of convection, near surface winds will continue to be southeasterly at near 10 knots.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 358 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

It's been a mixed bag of activity during the overnight. Earlier convection pushed north off the coast of Cuba and initially raced towards the Keys but devolved into an outflow boundary. Surprisingly, despite ample instability this boundary was not able to overcome lingering subsidence in place and no new activity developed. Further east we have been seeing activity wax and wane, primarily confined to the Upper Keys and surrounding coastal waters. We have enter a brief lull as one round moves north across the mainland and another round is taking shape west of Andros Island. Winds have been slightly lighter than previously though with speeds generally 10 to 15 knots from the southeast. This combined with the lack of rainfall overnight has keep temperatures in the upper 70s to even near 80 degrees.

For today, the Keys will remain in the warm sector with southeast winds aiding in pushing moisture and instability across the region. Meanwhile, water vapor satellite imagery shows a potent shortwave entering the Bay of Campeche and moving east northeast. This feature will reach the Keys by this afternoon and could give the lift needed to trigger more widespread showers and thunderstorms today. In addition, this feature will only help to enhance a low level veering profile and could lend support for a couple of strong thunderstorms to develop. The main threat would be wind with these storms.

This shortwave will quickly exit to the northeast early Monday but lurking just in the Lee of the Rockies is a large upper level trough that is diving southeast. This trough will pivot into the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Monday helping to drive a prolific cold front all the way into the western Gulf Basin. Said front will be in a weakening state as it approaches the Keys late Monday into early Tuesday. That being said, we are expecting cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions in its wake. Thereafter, we could see a prolonged period of breezy to windy conditions linger through much of next week thanks to a strong high pressure filling in behind the front.

Lastly, there is growing suggestion that another potent shortwave will move across the Gulf waters sometime towards the middle of the week. This feature will also race east northeast and move across Florida and the Florida Keys. Models are struggling to resolve how quickly a corresponding surface may develop and where. To put into perspective, the GFS has a surface low developing over or in the vicinity of the Florida Keys with a wetter and potentially stormy outcome. The ECMWF on the other hand takes a little longer to develop a surface feature and places it moreso across the NW Bahamas. Regardless of development, we will remain in a wet pattern for much of next week. This would help tremendously in our current Moderate Drought conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026 While no watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect, some thunderstorms could form in the coastal waters and produce elevated wind gusts and confused seas through tonight. Surface high pressure will begin sliding back eastward as a strong, large surface low pressure system takes shape across the Midwest. This low pressure system will move into the northern Great Lakes region on Monday with a trailing front draped across the western Gulf Basin. In the short term, this will maintain breezes peaking overnight and lulling during the afternoon. The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the Keys late Monday. In its wake expect freshening northwest to north by early Tuesday. Fresh to strong breezes are becoming increasingly likely following the front during the middle of next week.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.