textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong high pressure will gradually push out into the North Atlantic through the week, supporting an extended period of relatively unremarkable weather. - Moderate to fresh breezes will wax and wane this week, generally peaking during the overnight hours and lulling in the afternoons. Winds will be strongest over the Florida Straits and weakest over the Gulf waters due to cooler waters and the influence of South Florida daytime heating. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for portions of Keys waters, and Advisories are also possible for the Florida Straits. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Shower coverage has been very spotty this evening and none appear to have made it to the island chain. A batch of showers moving through the Straits of Florida currently, originated from Andros Island and have managed to survive the westward trek. Meanwhile, showers that came off the southwest mainland moved into the open, cooler waters off the west coast of Florida and have dissipated. Nonetheless, will maintain slight chances for an occasional rain shower through the overnight.

Meanwhile, a broad ridge stretches across the North Atlantic and across the southern tier of states. This is maintaining an east wind across the island chain and surrounding coastal waters. Speeds at our marine platforms are generally 15 to 20 knots, with the exception of one site in the nearshore Gulf waters which has been holding at 15 knots most of the afternoon and evening. Interestingly enough the hi-res models captured this beautifully with a sharp cut-off of 15 to 20 knots across Florida Bay to 10 to 15 knots in the cooler Gulfside and SE Gulf waters.

MARINE

Issued at 1032 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Across the waters south of the island chain but also including the Florida Bay, moderate to fresh easterly breezes prevail this evening and will continue into the overnight. Moderate to occasional fresh breezes will spill over into the nearshore Gulfside waters at times overnight. Therefore, a Small Craft Exercise Caution headline is in effect for all waters except the deeper SE Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh breezes will tend to lull shortly after sunrise, then peak again after sunset. This undulation will continue through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight and into Wednesday. Easterly winds will prevail occasionally gusting to near 20 knots. An occasional brief shower may pass over the island terminals but confidence on timing and exact placement remain low at this time.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.