textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable weather conditions are expected from this afternoon through Monday, with mostly sunny skies, near-average temperatures, and gentle breezes.

- A late-season cold front is expected to arrive Monday night, with potential rain and storms and fresh to strong breezes in its wake.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions look increasingly likely across Florida Keys coastal waters Monday night through Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Through 19/18Z, prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both EYW and MTH.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Through the next 24 to 48 hours, a surface high that sprawls across the Atlantic and Gulf Basins will slide further east and away from the Keys. This will lead to a col region developing across the Keys Sunday with a period of light and variable winds. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge centered over the Gulf will slowly slide east and become flattened in response to an upper level trough diving out of the Central Plains. Despite the gradual influx of moisture in the lowest levels, we will remain too suppressed and therefore will maintain rain chances at 10 percent or less.

By Monday, a strong surface high pressure will barrel out of the Central Plains and drive a back door front across the Keys Monday evening and overnight. In the wake of the front, we expect a sharp increase in winds with windy conditions developing Monday night. Thereafter, the surface high will slowly meander eastward and eventually settle across the Atlantic off the Southeast U.S. coast by Thursday. As a result, wind conditions will persist through Wednesday morning before easing to breezy conditions through the end of the week.

There still remains high uncertainty as to how much moisture will accompany the front and the subsequent position after it passes through. Previous runs of the GFS had the moisture plume stalling across the Keys through the first half of the week. More recent runs has the moisture settling to our south Tuesday into Wednesday and lifting back slowly northeastward as a pseudo warm front Wednesday night through the end of the week. The ECMWF has some similarities and some subtle differences. The ECMWF also shows the moisture plume pushing south of the Keys Tuesday, but stalls across the Greater Antilles and remains to our south. Therefore rain chances remain low and will depend on where that moisture

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters. For this afternoon, prevailing ESE breezes will average 11-14 knots, with occasional gusts up to 18 knots. Seas will average 1-3 feet in Hawk Channel, 2-4 feet in the Straits of Florida, and 1-2 feet in the extreme southeastern Gulf. Sea surface temperatures will be in the upper 70s in Keys nearshore waters and along the Florida Reef tract, and in the lower 80s in portions of Florida Bay and in the Gulf Stream. Sunset in Key West will be at 7:51 p.m. EDT.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.