textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light, occasionally variable, east to southeasterly breezes will begin to freshen to light to gentle tonight.

- Conditions will be marginally favorable for island cloud line formation near portions of the Florida Keys tomorrow. Cloud line development will support a marginal risk for waterspouts.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue through the holiday weekend. Rain chances will remain at seasonable levels (20-30%), with seasonably warm and muggy conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Most of the morning and early afternoon showers across the Florida Keys waters have collapsed. Multiple outflow boundaries are still present over the nearshore waters. Potential cloud lines along the bayside waters north of the island chain are still a concern. Later tonight, the risk will shift towards South Florida. Outflow boundaries moving off mainland convection have the potential to set off more thunderstorms over Florida Bay, eastern Hawk Channel, or the Outer Gulf waters. Expect light, occasionally variable breezes outside of showers early tonight. High pressure will start to build in across the region after sunset, and breezes are on track to fresh to light to gentle east to southeasterlies.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming TAF period. Cloud lines may be able to form near EYW or MTH this evening, and MVFR to IFR CIGs or VIS may be possible near aforementioned convection. General winds will be easterly to southeasterly with periods of variable conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 625 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026 This pattern of toasty and muggy weather with showers and thunderstorms mixed in will continue through the second half of the week. Ridging anchored over the eastern U.S. will continue to support a light southeasterly flow across our area. This light flow means that cloudline development will be possible during the afternoon hours either over, or adjacent to, the island chain. The only caveat to this is if the area becomes outflow dominant from the widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will interfere with the uniform flow needed to support our cloudline.

For the holiday weekend, guidance continues to favor a little bit of an increase in the chances for showers and thunderstorms due to an increase in moisture. Forecast soundings specifically show an increase in the lower to mid levels, where we have seemed to be lacking. With that being said, there does seem to be a window of opportunity for activity to wane just in time for any nighttime celebrations on Independence Day.

Early next week, the typical summertime pattern of east to southeast flow will encourage seasonable rainfall chances with warm temperatures. A few ensemble members are indicating out heat indices may see an uptick as we approach the middle of the week, but it is way too early to make any meaningful calls about that.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 91 83 92 / 20 10 30 20 Marathon 83 90 83 89 / 20 20 40 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.