textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets will continue through overnight due to higher high tides. Some storm drains will overflow. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- Below normal rain and thunder chances will continue through at least Tuesday. There is low confidence in rainfall chances for the latter part of the work week and the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 1026 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

This evening has been quiet with hardly any precipitation developing across the coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys. In addition, breezes have slackened from earlier in the evening and are generally light out of the east and southeast. Some occasional gentle breezes will remain in the Straits of Florida through the overnight. Overall, expecting light to occasionally gentle breezes to persist through as the Keys remain under the influence of a fractured ridge that is centered across the Atlantic and stretches back to the west into the eastern Gulf. Towards the end of the week, the ridge should gradually begin to consolidate and strengthen, allowing breezes to subsequently freshen.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions expected through the overnight and into Tuesday under weak east to southeast flow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 Low level ridging has remained the dominant feature across the Florida Keys, reflected in the gentle southeasterly flow noted on surface observations. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s with heat index values near 100F, but these light breezes have kept the air from feeling too stuffy or stagnant. Even though our sensible weather here at home is generally unremarkable, there are a few key pieces in the synoptic pattern regarding the long term forecast. Satellite imagery shows an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf waters. A lengthy cold front is draped across the southeastern U.S., noted by the widespread cloud cover over portions of central and northern Florida. CIMSS vorticity analysis still shows a sloppy area of cyclonic vorticity over eastern Cuba and the Great Antilles area, and it is currently aiding in a mix of showers and thunderstorms.

First, we need to get through tonight and tomorrow. Even though the atmosphere does support some shallow showers, we still lack any meaningful lift to trigger this activity. If any outflow boundaries from afternoon convection outside of our area can pass across our waters, we may be able to trigger some activity later tonight. We'll continue to advertise a slight chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow night with overnight lows dialing back to the lower 80s followed by afternoon highs in the upper 80s.

Over the course and Wednesday and Thursday, the cold front will continue to press down the peninsula, and is progged to stall somewhere over central or southern Florida. This would erode the ridging that has remained across our area, and could open the door for some better rain chances. This set up would also place us in a tighter moisture gradient, which would be conducive to better rainfall chances, but the southerly flow in the lower levels could result in a Cuban shadow across our area. This would keep the Keys on the drier side, and confine the wetter activity to our northern waters. Both deterministic and ensemble guidances are having difficulty honing in on where the boundary will set up, and this could make or break the forecast. Ensemble members do have some agreement that showers will bring measurable rainfall to the Keys at some point over the second half of the week, but the question is when is the onset of rain? It depends which ensemble member you ask. The takeaway is that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the specific details of our sensible weather after Wednesday, but the general pattern will shift in a way where the best rainfall chances across the area will occur later this week. We will have to continue to monitor guidance trends as the front gradually progresses down the Sunshine State before we can narrow down rainfall timing, amounts, and any potential hazards.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.