textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- An approaching new moon will result in increasing high tides. Minor coastal flooding will be possible along the length of the Florida Keys. Moderate coastal flooding may be possible through the first half of next week as this tidal cycle peaks.

- Rain chances will be near to below normal through the weekend.

- Drier conditions are possible as dew points potentially slip to near 70 degrees this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026 A low to mid-level ridge axis is centered over the Keys this afternoon. It will shift eastward overnight as longwave troughing ejects across New England. At the surface, a weak front extends southwest along the Eastern Seaboard and into the Central Gulf. A thin line of showers is currently present over the Florida Panhandle, but forcing is generally removed well north of the southern extent of the front. By tomorrow, the front will meander towards our northern waters as it begins to lay over and become more east to west oriented. It will likely struggle to produce showers due to the weak forcing and very dry air aloft. As such, the forecast will generally remain mostly sunny through the weekend with highs in the lower 80s, dewpoints in the lower 70s, and small chances for rain in our eastern waters due to the southward propagation of activity over South Florida. As we approach the New Moon in a few days, high tides will peak around 1 to 1.5 ft above normal high tide through the next several tide cycles, and minor saltwater coastal flooding is likely to worsen, especially in the Upper Keys.

The front will wash out across the Keys through the early part of next week as mid to upper-level zonal flow develops across the Gulf. Moisture should begin to slowly rebound by the middle of the week, but model consensus remains shakey regarding the evolution of southern stream shortwave troughing over the Southern Plains on Wednesday, and the potential phasing of a northern stream longwave trough with the southern stream towards the end of the week.

MARINE

Issued at 111 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026 Light to gentle northeasterly breezes are present across the Florida Keys marine zones this afternoon due to western Atlantic ridging extending southwest through the Florida Peninsula. Dry air combined with high pressure over the region will limit rain chances through the weekend. A weak front will approach the area this weekend which may promote a subtle peak in northeasterly breezes overnight with lulls during the daytime.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026 VFR conditions and light north to northeasterly winds will be evident throughout this TAF cycle as a result of ridging and dry air over the Florida Keys.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 76 82 75 82 / 10 0 10 10 Marathon 76 83 76 83 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.