textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- High confidence breezy to windy conditions will last through the weekend, and at least into the start of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Keys coastal waters.

- Shower coverage expected to gradually decrease today and tonight. High confidence showers drop out of the forecast by Saturday.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is out for the Upper Keys because of a strong northeast swell.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 405 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026 A broad high pressure system set up over the Carolinas yesterday and pushed a frontal boundary far south of the Florida Keys. Breezy conditions set up across the entire island chain. Despite the boundary being located near Cuba, sinking air has not been able to make it to the Keys. Dew points along the island chain still range from the upper 60s to near 70. The KBYX radar continues to show shallow showers across the Florida Straits, though showers are capped below about 10,000 feet. All signs point to weather being drier and breezy across the Keys.

There is high confidence that the high pressure system setting up over the eastern United States will be pretty long lasting. Statistical model guidance calculated a very small spread in wind speeds between the 10th and 90th percentile, about 5 mph, across the CWA. Meanwhile, the region of sinking air aloft is on track to move further south towards the Keys. For better or worse, model ensembles suggest winds will remain elevated through the weekend and into next week. Any outdoor plans this weekend should take these breezes into account, because odds are they will be sticking around for a while.

MARINE

Issued at 405 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, fresh to strong breezes will persist across all Florida Keys coastal waters through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in place. There is high confidence breezes will not begin to slacken to moderate to fresh until at least Tuesday. Drier air will gradually move towards the Florida Keys, so occasional shallow showers will linger through tonight.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 405 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Prevailing VFR conditions are expected for both EYW and MTH. Shallow cumulus may develop enough to result in short lived MVFR CIGs near both terminals, and fast moving showers will be able to form south of the island chain. Near surface winds will continue to gust between 20 and 25 knots.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.