textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets will continue through tomorrow morning due to higher high tides. Some storm drains will overflow. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.
- Below normal rain and thunder chances will continue through at least Tuesday.
- Breezes will slowly slacken from gentle to moderate to light to gentle across the Keys waters by Monday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
A mid through upper level ridge centered over the Gulf stretches eastward across the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, a lower level Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf. An A modest pressure gradient across our area is responsible for light to gentle breezes across the Keys this evening. This evenings sounding indicated healthy moisture with just over 2 inches of precipitable water. There was modest CAPE and very weak inhibition. However, dominant anticyclonic flow at all levels has kept shower activity at a minimum through the evening and there were no thunderstorms.
Expect the pressure gradient to flatten slightly overnight allowing winds to slacken to a light breeze. While shower and thunderstorm chances cannot be absolutely ruled out, chances will be slight at best. This is due to moisture remaining relatively high with CAPE remaining sufficient with limited inhibition. This should allow for some activity to develop during the peak of nocturnal confluence. Overnight lows will settle broadly near 80 with dew points remaining stuck in the upper 70s.
MARINE
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
The pressure gradient in the Keys will relax overnight, resulting in gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes relaxing to a light to gentle breeze overnight. Expect shower and thunder chances to be slight at best.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. Surface winds will be light to gentle and mainly out of the east.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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