textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods. - Quick moving showers and storms may bring bursts of moderate to heavy rainfall, reduced visibility, and gusty winds through Tuesday.

- Confidence continues to increase for a potentially wet and thundery period Wednesday through next Sunday.

- A general 2-4" of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are possible at most island communities for this period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1009 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026 The stagnant weather pattern across the Florida Keys continues overnight. Temperatures are once more struggling to drop below 80F while dew points remain steady in the lower to mid 70s across the island chain. Breezes along the reef are measuring a bit closer to fresh, a slight increase compared to yesterday. However, KBYX radar returns have been sparse this evening. Satellite observations suggest that the most consistent cloud cover is limited to cirrus clouds generated by thunderstorms over central and southern Florida. This pattern does not mean showers are not a concern. Scattered showers were able to develop before sunrise, seemingly from nowhere. The ample moisture, heat in the environment, and moderate to fresh breezes mean even a slight amount of lift in the environment can support heavy showers.

The 00Z KKEY sounding showed, much like yesterday, that the atmosphere is primed for showers. The sampled PWAT was near 2 inches, which lines up with the range of 1.9 to 2.0 inches detected by the CIMSS MIMIC Layer PWAT product. The most notable change was in the wind field, which showed the pressure gradient tightened over the Florida Keys. If winds are able to veer slightly or the breezes become a bit less persistent, we could easily see showers flare up around the Keys. Opted to not change the inherited forecast, because any showers that form in this environment will develop very quickly. For tomorrow, prepare for more heat and humidity. Remember that nothing in the Florida Keys is rust-proof!

MARINE

Issued at 1009 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for all Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a North Atlantic high pressure system centered near Bermuda will support fresh east to southeast breezes through Tuesday night. Breezes will noticeably slacken and veer to the southeast to south as the high slides eastward and weakens by the middle of the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase for the middle and latter part of the work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the upcoming chapter period. Near surface east southeasterly winds remain near 15 knots with occasional to frequent gusts. Showers are shallow and short moving across the Straits.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 81 90 81 90 / 30 30 20 20 Marathon 80 87 80 87 / 30 30 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.