textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes are expected across Florida Keys coastal waters for the next few days peaking overnight and lulling during the day.

- Heat indices may approach 108 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities.

- Saharan Air Layer plumes will transit the area over the next several days, limiting rain and thunder chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 With our quieter weather this evening, eyes have been on Tropical Depression Two (TD2) churning over the eastern and northeastern Gulf waters. As of the 7 PM update, the center was located about 180 miles SSE of Panama City, Florida. TD2 is still expected to slowly track northwest to north- northwestward over the next day or so before turning westerly and hugging the northern Gulf Coast. Anyone with interests along the northern Gulf coastline should monitor the National Hurricane Center and local Weather Forecast Offices for updates.

CLoser to home, a thin veil of Saharan Air Layer seemed to linger this evening. Satellite-derived PWAT values showed values of around 1.5" which is on the dry side of this time of year. Even with some convection coming off of the northern coast of Cuba, as well as some low level convergence available to provide lift, our KBYX radar did not detect any showers or thunderstorms throughout most of this evening shift.

However, things have changed over the past hour. Small clusters of isolated showers have started popping up over our western marine zones, including the waters around Dry Tortugas National Park, and western portions of Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits. Mean flow is southwesterly, so a couple of stray showers may clip the island chain during the overnight hours. The cloud cover from TD2 has blocked the satellite from deriving PWAT values over the last couple of scans, but it looks like there has been a push of moisture into the western half of our forecast area coinciding with the area where these showers are popping up (PWAT values just shy of two inches). The 00Z KKEY sounding from this evening showed some residual SAL in the lower levels, and a PWAT value of 1.59". However, the radiosonde traveled northeastward, so the sounding may not be very representative of the environment we are seemingly transitioning into. The handful of surface observations we have reflect some wind convergence Taking this into consideration, as well as considering the possible nearly 2 inches of PWAT that satellite suggests is advecting in, these showers will likely thrive across at least the western portion of our forecast area.

The forecast is unfolding as expected, so no changes or adjustments are needed with this evening update.

MARINE

Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. As of 7:00 PM EDT, Tropical Depression Two was centered about 180 miles SSE of Panama City, Florida, and is still expected to move slowly northwestward or north- northwestward over the next day or two, away from our area. Eventually, it will turn to the west and hug the Gulf Coast. Closer to home, an Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend to the Florida Peninsula for the next several days. Gentle to moderate south to southeasterly breezes are expected to prevail across Florida Keys coastal waters from this afternoon through Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both island terminals. Widely scattered showers will wax and wane throughout the period, especially the first half of the period, but there is low confidence related to timing and distance with relation to either airfield. Opting to broadbrush a VCSH for EYW, and will amend as needed. Any showers that cross either location will be short lived. Generally south to southeast surface winds will prevail, but crosswind concerns are low due to the magnitude of these winds near 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 84 91 84 91 / 30 10 0 0 Marathon 83 91 83 91 / 30 10 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.