textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor to moderate saltwater flooding of low elevation streets will continue through today. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the waters of the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in all other waters until winds decrease this afternoon.

- A wet pattern will continue through tonight. Rain and thunder chances will decrease over the weekend through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 458 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Once again another busy KBYX start to the morning for the Florida Keys area. Currently, showers are mostly in the distant Straits and west of the island chain. Temperatures are in the mid 80s with dewpoints near 80 making for a muggy morning. Along the Reef, marine locations are reporting east to southeasterly winds of 15 to 20 knots. Small Craft Advisory headlines are still in effect in the Straits of Florida and southeastern Gulf waters while elsewhere small craft should exercise caution. Breezes are expected to gradually slacken throughout the day and headlines could be taken down by tonight. Ample moisture remains in the area as it continues to flow in from the western Caribbean. For today, we are expecting another day of showers and thunderstorms, though it is on the downward trend from what we experienced yesterday. Models are suggesting the Middle Keys could be more of a target today with flooding rain possible. As the weekend progresses the ridge that has been contributing to higher rain chances will ease off and near normal rain chances will return.

MARINE

Issued at 458 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Straits of Florida and southwestern Gulf waters, elsewhere small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease. From synopsis, high pressure offshore of the Eastern Seaboard will remain in place into the weekend. This feature will maintain moderate to fresh southeasterly breezes across the Straits of Florida and southwestern Gulf waters through the early morning hours, breezes are on track to slacken to moderate by this afternoon. Southeasterly winds will continue to prevail this weekend with widespread moderate breezes on Saturday and subsiding to gentle to moderate on Sunday. The winds will remain southeasterly into early next week and generally remain less than 10 knots and seas 2 feet or less. In addition, a wet weather pattern will remain across the Keys marine zones through this afternoon, resulting in periods of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A few rounds of convection are expected to move northwest through the island chain this morning resulting in the possibilities of TEMPOs including MVFR or IFR conditions. During convection wind gusts of near 25 knots are possible. Outside of convection, east to southeasterly winds of near 10 knots are expected.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ033-034- 052>055-072>075.