textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming and moistening trend expected through the end of the week, with temperatures reaching to near or slightly above normal late in the week.

- Light to gentle breezes will slowly shift east to southeast overnight, then gradually freshen through the remainder of the week. - Slight rain chances will begin late in the work week. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1017 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026 An uneventful night in the Florida Keys rolls on. This evening's KKEY 00z sounding is fairly unchanged from earlier today with a fat inversion at 850 mb marking the start of very dry air aloft. Its wind profile looks to be veering at the lower to mid levels signaling a pattern of warm air advection. Both of these facts play well into our current conditions. KBYX radar is free of any precipitable echoes and has been for most of the day as any possible convection is effectively forced down by the dry air and inversion. Temperatures are much warmer than yesterday around this time with current readings in the mid to upper 60s across the island chain. This is aided by gentle to moderate broadly east breezes observed across our CWA.

A surface high centered over the northern portion of the Bahamas continues to be the main feature dominating our weather pattern. It is expected to stretch out into the western North Atlantic tonight while leaving its western flank somewhere along the east coastline of the Florida Peninsula. This shift will help nudge our winds to the east to southeast and aid in a freshening of breezes overnight with fresh breezes possible in the Straits of Florida. That being said, we are still struggling to move out of the northeast winds in some places due in part to cooler waters north of the island chain. Those should warm in the short term as a warming pattern continues through the rest of the week and into the weekend. A combination of mid level moisture advecting in from the Caribbean and a short wave trough sliding into the northern Gulf coast tomorrow will help introduce slight chance PoPs back into our forecast and carry it into the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 1017 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys but Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge reaching westward across the Florida Peninsula will pull further eastward and away from our area over the next couple of days. As a result, breezes will gradually shift further east and south of east. Winds will vary quite a bit due to an ongoing land breeze and cold nearshore water temperatures. The western flank of the ridge will lift northward into tonight and will generally help to freshen breezes as they shift east southeasterly. Nearshore waters will likely remain a notch or two lower due to still cool waters. Thereafter, winds will be light to gentle northeast to easterly due to the general higher pressure over the eastern United States and lower pressure to our south.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1017 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026 VFR and dry conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight and into tomorrow. Near surface winds will be broadly out of the east at 5 to 10 knots, becoming east to southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 67 79 70 81 / 10 10 20 10 Marathon 67 79 71 81 / 0 10 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.