textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Fairly benign weather expected for one more day across the Keys with above normal temperatures and slight chances of rain as high pressure holds on.

- Gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes slacken this afternoon to light to gentle while veering to the southwest.

- A drastic pattern change is about to ensue across the Keys beginning tonight/Friday continuing through next week. As a result, expect increasing rain and thunder chances along with some very beneficial rain, especially over the weekend.

- Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. Confidence is increasing for much needed rainfall across the area over the weekend through early next week.

FORECAST

High pressure east of Bermuda will hang on across the area for a little bit longer. However, as a frontal system across the northwestern Gulf continues to trek southeastward through Friday, this will cause the high to retreat farther into the Atlantic. This will lead to the high loosening its grip across the region resulting in gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes this morning becoming light to gentle southwesterly breezes this afternoon. As weak and nebulous flow develops for tonight, there may be a time period where breezes become light and variable before becoming west to northwesterly. Moisture slowly increases across the region today continuing into the weekend resulting in rising rain chances. Temperatures will remain quite warm again for at least one more day with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s.

The pattern begins to change in earnest as we head into Friday. The robust upper level ridge that has been dominating the pattern for the last several days will continue to be flattened as an upper level trough smothers it to the south. This will lead to more upper level troughing across the area with multiple embedded shortwaves moving through the base of this trough. That being said, an unsettled pattern is becoming increasingly likely, especially over the weekend and into next week. At the surface, a frontal boundary drifting southeastward towards Florida will draw Atlantic and Caribbean moisture northward leading to increased rain chances through the extended. Instability is also expected to increase leading to the potential for thunderstorms beginning Friday continuing through the weekend and into next week. Cloud cover will also increase, especially over the weekend as a result. Some days may be wetter than others, however, it still remains too early to pinpoint the exact details. The main takeaway is expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms in a more widespread fashion beginning Friday night. Since a more unsettled pattern is upon us, the odds are increasing for the Keys and much of Florida to see very beneficial rain over the weekend through mid next week. Dew points will remain quite steady around 70 degrees or so through the period.

Looking at the end of the extended, there may be signs of yet another front towards Saint Patrick's Day. However, this is still too far out to hone in on any details at this time. At the very least, there is the potential for cooler temperatures, drop in dew points, breezy conditions, as well as rain chances continuing. Also, the later we get into spring the less likely it will be that these fronts will push through. Stay tuned!

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the Atlantic will start to pull away this morning while loosening its grip on the Keys. This will promote gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes becoming light to gentle southwesterly breezes this afternoon. A cold front currently draped across the northwestern Gulf and into Dixie Alley will continue to steadily push southeastward into South Florida through the remainder of the week and the weekend. Breezes will shift to the west to northwest sometime tonight with a brief period of light and variable breezes possible. Breezes will quickly clock around the compass becoming east to southeast again by late in the day Friday as high pressure over the Atlantic resumes control.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. However, latest guidance suggests isolated showers developing during the afternoon continuing into the evening hours. Due to the low confidence on timing and placement, VCSH was not included in the TAF. Any shower that does move in the vicinity of or over the terminals will be capable of briefly reducing visibility as well as CIGs to MVFR conditions. Near surface winds will remain southeast to south through the afternoon between 8 to 14 knots before slackening to 5 to 10 knots and shifting to the southwest. There may be a period of light and variable winds this evening.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1998, the daily record rainfall of 1.49 inches was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to January of 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 84 75 82 74 / 20 30 20 50 Marathon 83 74 83 74 / 20 30 20 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.