textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Near seasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue through the week along with dew points in the lower 70s.

- Light to gentle breezes will continue this morning across the marine area with generally light and variable winds along the Island Chain.

- Low confidence of a cloud line trying to develop during the afternoon today.

FORECAST

The benign pattern is expected to continue as we head into the start of the new work week. Northwest flow aloft continues for another day or two before more stout upper level ridging develops. The pattern reverts back to a more zonal or west to northwest flow as we reach mid to late week. Some weak ripples or weak waves are expected to transit through this flow during the week which may instigate some isolated shower or even thunderstorm activity, especially over the mainland. At the surface, another high drifts southeastward along the Eastern Seaboard. This will lead to a strengthening pressure gradient with breezes shifting to the northeast to east and freshening tonight through Wednesday night. Moisture undulations will continue keeping slight chances of rain in the forecast through Wednesday night. Temperatures remain in the mid 80s for highs with mid 70s for overnight lows. Dew points will also be hovering near 70 degrees keeping that summery feel. Some upper 80s during the day for highs and upper 70s overnight for lows cannot be completely ruled out, especially as we move into mid to late week.

A return to the weaker flow regime returns for late week into the first weekend of May which may instigate a pattern similar to that of this past Sunday. There is the potential we might need to keep an eye out for cloud lines again later this week. Stay tuned as we continue to hone in the forecast. One thing we have high confidence in is to expect continued highs in the mid 80s, potentially even some upper 80s, and overnight lows in the mid 70s, maybe upper 70s, and dew points in the lower to perhaps mid 70s.

MARINE

Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure over the North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern over the Florida Keys coastal waters for the next several days. This will support generally light to gentle northwest to north breezes this morning, becoming light and variable at times. Breezes may briefly freshen Tuesday through Wednesday, before becoming light to gentle again for the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH terminals. Near surface winds will remain northwest to north this morning (occasionally variable) into the evening hours before shifting to the northeast. We also cannot rule out a passing shower throughout the TAF period. The best chance would be late afternoon into the evening hours if a shower were to occur.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2015, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the warmest low temperature ever recorded in April. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

OF NOTE: In 2003, a severe thunderstorm produced a 53 mph gust and 1/2" to 1&3/4" hail over the entire island of Key West for about 10 minutes. This was the largest hail ever recorded in Key West, and tied for the largest ever in Monroe County. In 1980, hail smaller than 3/4" fell in Key West and an F2 tornado (when it was still the Fujita scale before the Enhanced Fujita scale) hit Cudjoe Key and/or Ramrod Key, resulting in 10 injuries and $250k in damage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 85 77 85 77 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 84 76 85 77 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.