textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Breezes slackening across the Florida Keys to end the work week.

-Expect warmer than normal temperatures through the weekend with an accompanied increase in dew point. -A frontal boundary associated with a strong winter storm forecast to push through the Florida Keys next Monday to Monday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Shower activity in the nearshore waters of the Upper and Middle Keys aren't expected at this time to impact MTH but TEMPOs will be included if impacts change. Near surface winds are northeasterly at 5 to 10 knots.

FORECAST

Multiple shortwave troughs and their associated clipper systems are on track to amplify the broad longwave trough located over the eastern half of North America this weekend. This, in turn, will phase together with another shortwave over the Four Corners region. The result is an environment primed to generate a dangerous winter storm across the southeastern United States. Impacts for the Keys on Saturday to Sunday are light to gentle breezes. Recent ensemble guidance moved the track of the winter storm further north and thus reduced pressure gradient across the Gulf. Statistical models show winds may drop to light and variable Sunday to Sunday night. However, the cold front associated with this winter storm will sweep south across the Gulf on Monday. Currently, cold frontal passage across the Keys is expected on Monday to Monday night. Temperatures and dew points are expected to drop once again, and dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected by Tuesday. Windy conditions are possible next Monday to Tuesday, though right now model guidance suggests breezy weather. The winter storm is still developing, so check back later for an updated forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1117 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Small Craft should exercise caution until seas subside in the Straits of Florida. From synopsis, gentle to moderate northeasterlies will persist across the nearshore and offshore waters through the end of the work week. Shower coverage will diminish tonight as winds aloft direct a plume of moisture away from the Keys. Over the weekend, breezes are expected to slacken to light to gentle. A strong winter storm developing over the southeastern United States is responsible for weakening the pressure gradient, and a cold frontal passage associated with this system is expected sometime Monday to Monday Night. Winds will rapidly clock north and freshen to fresh to strong in its wake.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.