textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Near seasonably warm and muggy conditions will continue through the rest of the work week.

- Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will continue through tonight, then clocking to the east to southeast by Wednesday.

- Rain chances will remain low through Saturday, exasperating existing moderate drought conditions.

FORECAST

Ridging is expected to mainly dominate the Keys sensible weather for the next several days. At the surface, high pressure is currently building into the region as this high slides southeastward. This is currently resulting in breezes freshening out of the northeast to east early this morning with breezes remaining elevated into tonight. The high is expected to move off the coast of the Carolinas overnight and then settle across the western North Atlantic through late week. Some areas of low pressure moving across the Southeast U.S. will act to occasionally flatten this ridge leading to slackening breezes, especially mid to late week. Moisture undulations are expected to continue keeping slight chance of showers in the forecast. Temperatures remain in the mid 80s for highs with mid 70s for overnight lows. Dew points will also be hovering near 70 degrees keeping that summery feel. Some upper 80s during the day for highs and upper 70s overnight for lows cannot be completely ruled out, especially as we move into mid to late week.

Once we get to late week, model guidance starts to diverge on the what happens across the North Gulf Coast. One piece of guidance shows a low pressure system skirting across the Southeast with breezes freshening again out of the southeast to south. The other piece of guidance is weaker with the evolution of the pattern and doesn't develop a low until it is off the South Carolina Coast. Basically, this will influence just how strong these southeast to south breezes become, depending on what happens along the North Gulf Coast. One thing we have high confidence in is to expect continued highs in the mid 80s, potentially even some upper 80s, and overnight lows in the mid 70s, maybe upper 70s, and dew points in the lower to perhaps mid 70s.

There are signals for a wetter pattern in the latest numerical and statistical guidance towards the end of the upcoming weekend into early week. A mean layer trough is expected to be anchored across the eastern U.S. with a piece of this trough potentially dipping southward into the Gulf and then across Florida. As of now, it looks like a period of potentially increased cover, slightly cooler temperatures, and increased rain chances, though, uncertainty remains. Stay tuned!

MARINE

Issued at 434 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes through tonight. As the high slides into the western North Atlantic through mid-week, breezes will gradually veer to the east to southeast. Multiple low pressure systems are expected to traverse across the eastern U.S. mid to late week. This combined with weak low pressure across the western North Atlantic will result in a period of mainly southeast to south breezes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 434 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. A boundary moving southwestward along the Island Chain brought some rain to MTH early this morning. This same boundary may bring a brief shower to EYW between 28/09z-28/12z. Any shower will be capable of briefly reducing VIS and CIGs to MVFR conditions. To the fast-moving nature of these showers, we will handle with a TEMPO when needed. Near surface winds are expected to remain northeast to east through the period.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1941, the daily record rainfall of 2.36" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 85 76 85 75 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 84 76 84 76 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.