textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Slight chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the middle of the week.
- Mainly gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters through today.
- There will be little relief in the warm temperatures overnight, with minimum temperatures near record values in the lower to mid 80s for most communities.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 540 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 A mostly uneventful night for the Florida Keys. KBYX has remained shower-free for the majority of the night, although some showers are popping up along some boundaries in our waters over the last hour or so. These showers have been light and short fused and so far none have made it to the island chain. Seen on MIMIC PWAT, dry air has moved into the area which is helping limit these showers. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s once again making for muggy conditions. Along the Reef, wind observations are easterly at 10 to 15 knots. Today will be similar to previous with chances of showers and thunderstorms but nothing that will last long due to dry air in the area. A frontal boundary is expected to move down Florida later tonight but not much is expected for us to change. As the frontal boundary weakens the high that has been controlling our winds, they will start to slacken. Temperatures and dewpoints will remain similar to the following days so muggy and warm conditions will continue.
MARINE
Issued at 540 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a broad high pressure system centered over the North Atlantic will continue to extend westward to the Florida Peninsula through today. This will support bouts of light to gentle breezes that may freshen to gentle to moderate at times. Starting late tonight, a frontal boundary will press south across the Florida Peninsula and stall across central Florida. This will act to weaken the high and allow for slackening breezes through Thursday. Thereafter, breezes will resume a cycle of overnight peaks and daytime lulls.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Dry air has limited showers overnight but as the sun comes up showers are possible therefore VCSH has been included at both terminals. Near surface winds will be easterly at near 10 knots through the afternoon.
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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