textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect, and particularly low lying areas will see some saltwater ponding around the times of high tide.

- Mainly slight rain chances are expected today continuing through approximately mid-week.

- A weak cold front is expected to press through the Keys sometime Monday night/Tuesday. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures and a drop in dew points.

FORECAST

Ridging will continue to dominate through the remainder of the holiday weekend including the holiday itself. The aforementioned ridge in the discussion section above will help to keep breezes elevated through the period. Therefore, expect mainly southeast gentle to moderate breezes to continue through this afternoon before backing to the northeast to east. Drier air will also filter into the area leading to decreased rain chances. Expect daytime highs to remain quite warm in the upper 80s and overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points potentially hovering near 80 degrees. Also, heat index values will be back in the equation between 105 to 107 degrees. Make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks when working or doing strenuous activity outdoor. Very warm and tropical considering we are approaching mid-October.

Numerical and global model guidance continues to show a front pressing through the Keys sometime Monday night/Tuesday. Confidence continues to grow for a dip in dew points for Tuesday through Wednesday and slightly cooler temperatures. Dew points potentially down to the lower 70s, or 70 degrees? This will feel much better compared to dew points currently near 80 degrees this morning. This front will press through which is anticipated to result in below average rain chances for a few forecast periods before lifting back north as a warm front later in the week with a return to muggier and potentially wetter conditions.

Subtle hint here but latest global and numerical guidance is hinting at a potentially much stronger cold front for next weekend. However, the details remain quite fuzzy at this juncture. We will keep fine tuning the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 431 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Boaters should be aware of less clearance under fixed bridges around times of high tide as a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, weak high pressure along the North Gulf Coast combined with the Atlantic ridge will continue to promote peaking and lulling breezes through at least Monday. In addition, breezes will back to the northeast as the high along the North Gulf Coast strengthens. As the high builds, a front associated with Post- Tropical Cyclone Isaias will push through the Keys sometime Monday night or Tuesday. In the wake of the front, high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S. promoting gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes through much of the week. Drier air moving in today will also lead to decreased rain chances through at least mid week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 431 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 VFR conditions will mainly persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain southeasterly this morning before shifting to the east to southeast late this afternoon and then the east this evening and overnight. An area of showers and a couple thunderstorms at times over the Straits of Florida will continue to move northwestward over the next few to several hours. Some of this activity is anticipated to affect both terminals this morning with MTH between 11/09-12z and then EYW between 11/12-15z. Any of this activity will be capable of reducing CIGs and VIS briefly, product gusty winds, and the potential for a lightning strike. Much drier air moves in for the daytime reducing rain chances.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1909, the daily record rainfall of 8.94" was recorded in Key West as a Category 3 Hurricane moved rapidly northeast from the western tip of Cuba along and just south of the entire length of the Keys. It caused nearly a million dollars in damage in Key West, drowned 12 railroad workers, and destroyed about 400 buildings. Sand Key recorded a minimum pressure of 28.37" with winds estimated at 100 mph before being swept out to sea. Rainfall records for Key West date back to 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 83 90 80 / 20 10 20 30 Marathon 90 83 90 80 / 20 10 20 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.