textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably warm conditions will continue over the next couple of days.

- Dew points will climb noticeably into the mid 70s by Friday night. - Light and variable breezes will prevail for the next couple of days, with a brief gentle to moderate pickup heading into the weekend.

- Rain chances will remain low through at least Saturday. A wetter pattern is becoming increasingly likely beginning Sunday, although there is low confidence in rainfall amounts at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 139 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Friday afternoon, with nil rain chances. Light near surface winds will generally be out of the southeast, becoming variable at times.

MARINE

Issued at 959 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, high pressure will retreat into the Atlantic this afternoon, as a weak low pushes off the Eastern Seaboard. This will result in light southeasterlies becoming variable. Another weak low will push across Florida late this week and into the weekend, likely supporting a short period of gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes. Winds should slacken again later in the weekend as the pressure gradient flattens. A weak disturbance in the Gulf coupled with increased moisture will support elevated rain and thunder chances for late in the weekend and into early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026 The weather will remain fairly static over the next couple of days with light and varying breezes persisting. Normal temps expected with highs in the mid 80s, lows in the mid 70s, and dew points around 70. Forecast soundings continue to suggest broad inhibition will remain across the area through this period and keep rain chances nil with mostly clear skies.

The weather will begin transitioning heading into this weekend as a mid latitude trough sweeps through the eastern United States. In response a surface trough/low will deepen as it moves across northern Florida and along the southeast Atlantic coast Friday Night into Saturday. Meanwhile the surface Atlantic ridge will consolidate across Cuba and result in freshening southerly breezes across the Keys. Expect surface dew points to surge upwards, reaching into the mid 70s by Saturday. Temperatures will likely climb slightly above normal with Friday night lows likely struggling to fall into the 70s. Despite the warming and moistening, rain chances will initially remain low due to the still present inhibition.

The previously mentioned trough will move up the mid Atlantic Coast on Saturday while the surface ridge retreats eastward into the Atlantic. This will leave the Keys in a nebulous pressure field, weakening breezes and lingering warm humid conditions. Meanwhile a southern stream shortwave will swing through the Gulf and Florida on Sunday into Sunday night. Broad deep layered troughing will just reach down to our latitude and set up increasingly moist and confluent flow across the southeastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula. While guidance suggests the best setup will be just to our north, it is close enough to bear watching. For now, will advertise mid to high chance for showers and thunderstorms through this period.

Rain chances will taper back through the first half of the week as the mid latitude trough finally lifts out, replaced by building deep layered ridging. The pressure field will remain uninteresting, holding a stagnant airmass. Expect dew points to remain in the mid 70s for at least a few more days with temperatures near to slightly above normal.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 85 76 86 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 84 76 86 79 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.