textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light and variable winds will persist through tonight.

- A more active weather pattern develops by early next week with higher rain chances and increasing southeasterly winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Latest KBYX radar imagery detects light shower activity across the offshore Straits, which developed as a result of an outflow boundary that has originated from convection around Andros Island. A wider GOES-19 satellite perspective shows scattered to numerous convection across much of the Bahamas and SW Atlantic associated with an upper level trough axis as it departs into the Atlantic and its base pinches off into an upper low. In addition, there is also a narrow corridor of Saharan Dust across the Bahamas and central Cuba drifting to the northwest, which also aided in the development of this convective activity along its leading edge. High level convective debris associated with this activity around the Bahamas and SW Atlantic is streaming southwestward and at times will filter across the Florida Keys through the remainder of the day, which may have a role in limiting cloud line organization through the remainder of the day to at least some extent, but it depends on how much cirrus ultimately filters through. Regardless, a rising cu field will need to overcome limited moisture in the low levels and an approaching narrow region of Saharan dust, though dust concentrations will generally be decreasing throughout the remainder of the weekend. Other than needing to monitor the cloud line throughout the day and potential shower activity associated with its development, it should be a mostly dry day across the Florida Keys with favorable marine conditions yet again as winds are light and variable before southeasterlies start to increase tonight into the remainder of the weekend as the col region starts to fade.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Another night of shower-free KBYX radar. While the Atlantic surface ridge continues to dominate our weather not much has changed in the last 24 hours. Winds along the Reef are light and variable. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. Today we can expect similar conditions to continue though off the Upper Keys there could be another slight freshening of breezes in the afternoon. Waterspout formation is possible again if a cloud line is able to develop from the light and variable winds.

Early this week the mid level trough will still be in place over the southeast and in the Gulf waters though mid level ridging will attempt to push back in the region. Surface high in the western Atlantic will result in winds becoming more easterly to southeasterly and slightly freshening around Monday. Moisture will move into the area and rain chances will gradually increase this week though models are suggesting higher than what we have advertised. Easterly winds will continue through a majority of the week and rain chances will peak on Wednesday through Thursday. Thereafter, mostly sunny skies will return with near normal rain chances.

MARINE

Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, weak nebulous flow with light to gentle breezes will continue as the western periphery of an Atlantic surface ridge slides westward across the Keys putting the coastal waters in a col region. As high pressure strengthens in the North Atlantic, southeast breezes will freshen by the second half of the weekend and into early next week. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by next week as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.