textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight chance of rainfall persists this morning as a cold front pushes through the Keys today. After the front passes, mainly dry conditions will follow for the rest of the forecast period.

- Gentle to moderate southwest breezes will veer to the north moving into tonight. Then, generally east light to gentle breezes will prevail during the work week. Near normal temperatures will increase to above normal highs mid week.

- A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 We have some activity in the coastal waters of the Florida Keys this morning following a spell of quiet weather. KBYX radar detects a couple lines of shallow showers moving through our southeast Gulf waters and western Straits of Florida. The northernmost of these lines is starting to scrape across the Lower Keys as it moves quickly to the east at near 20 knots. Just north of our CWA, our radar also notes the main line of convection ahead of a cold front diving along the south Florida coastline. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southwest breezes prevail along the Reef waters having turned from the south overnight. Temperatures are warmer than previous nights with values in the lower 70s and dew points near 70 resulting in another humid start to the day.

Today's big weather story is undoubtedly the weak cold front progged to sweep over our area. This initial spurt of shallow convection will quickly sweep across our area this morning until it either exits or dissipates following sunrise. Minus any other pop up developments to follow, the next wave of rain will come with the main prefrontal line of convection around the late morning or early afternoon hours if it can hold itself together to make it to the island chain. Last night's 00z KKEY balloon sounding noted a decently moist low level environment below an inversion around 800 mb, but also included a good amount of dry air aloft. Therefore, we do not expect thunderstorms over land today but cannot entirely rule them out in the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream or out in the southeast Gulf where more energy associated with the main prefrontal line could force a few towers to develop. While there is not expected to be a surge of winds with this frontal passage, gentle to moderate southwest winds from this morning will veer to the northwest by the end of the day.

While this front is not very strong, we will still see a brief cool down. Temperatures Tuesday morning are expected to fall into the mid 60s, just a few degrees below normal for this time of year. Highs will quickly recover back into the upper 70s with breezes returning back to the usual easterly direction as high pressure takes back control over southeast CONUS. From there into the extended forecast, a primarily dry and warming pattern takes over into the weekend with highs eventually making it back up to the 80s. The next cold front continues to be picked up by global models for the start of next week however, and still looks much stronger than today's passage. Will continue to monitor guidance solution trends for this feature for now, so stay tuned in the meantime.

MARINE

Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a low pressure system draped across the Eastern Seaboard will drag an associated cold front through the Keys coastal waters today. Moderate southwesterly breezes will veer northwesterly by tonight. No potent surge in breezes is expected with this front. Breezes may slacken slightly after the front before veering easterly on Tuesday. Light to gentle breezes will prevail through mid week while another high pressure system moves from the Carolinas into the western Atlantic.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 435 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026 Through 17/06Z, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at EYW and MTH. Widely separated rain showers are expected to move east- northeast through the Florida Keys coastal waters early this Monday morning with vicinity showers indicated until shortly before sunrise. Another period of vicinity showers is indicated as a cold front passes through the Florida Keys early this afternoon. There is a low chance for MVFR ceilings with either VCSH episode with hourly chances in the 15 to 30 percent range, and low enough to omit from any TEMPO mentions at this time. Southwest winds are likely to increase to near 10 knots and gradually veer to west after sunrise, then northwest after the frontal passage.

CLIMATE

On this date in Key West weather history, the record high for the date of 84F was set in 1927, with the record low 53F set more recently in 1991.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.