textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remaining near to slightly above normal through the weekend with light to gentle breezes.

- Rain chances will remain near nil to slight across the island chain this weekend. - A strong high pressure system sinking into the northern Plains from Canada is forecast to freshen breezes early next week. Breezy conditions are possible at times. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

MARINE

Issued at 242 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Light to gentle breezes will gradually slacken this evening and overnight as the Keys enter an area of lower pressure. This is due to a retreating ridge across the Atlantic and a stalled frontal boundary across north central Florida. This will ultimately lead to a col region with light and variable winds on Saturday. This will most notably be seen across the nearshore waters north of the island chain. By Sunday evening, a new high pressure diving out of the Central Plains will fill in behind the stalled frontal boundary. This will allow breezes to clock around from the northeast and freshen. A period of moderate to fresh breezes is likely, especially across the Straits of Florida.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 242 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. East to southeast winds will gradually weaken and become light and variable during the day on Saturday. Look for a wind shift from the north beginning around sunset Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

February is coming to an end on a warm note across the Florida Keys. Yesterday's highs rose to near 80 in Key West, while the upper 70s were measured in Marathon. Dew points are measuring in the upper 60s to near 70 across the island chain. A comparison to CIMSS MIMIC Layer TPW estimates around 1.25 inches of PWAT over the Keys in the early morning hours, a significant recovery from the 0.17 inches measured on Tuesday evening by the 00Z KKEY radiosonde. Cloud cover was able to return to the Keys as well. Nighttime microphysics observations from GOES-E show pulses of shallow cumulus cloud and occasional cirrus over the coastal waters. Anemometers out at the reef are measuring light to gentle southeasterlies, and winds are expected to slacken before sunset. While this is tempting fate, conditions look to be rather quiet today for the Florida Keys.

The anticipated lighter winds across the Keys can be attributed to the eastward movement of the Atlantic ridge and the development of frontal systems in the southeastern US. A front is forecast to stall over northern Florida on Saturday, because the energy is not present to push the boundary into the Gulf. This would be why we may see a col region over some of the northern waters over the weekend. Rain chances will remain low because the kinematic forcing is not present. Wind speed convergence is slight if present, and backing winds over the weekend will further limit shower formation. March is on track to begin rather uneventfully for the Keys.

The feature of interest for Keys weather this forecast cycle will not be near the island chain at all. A strong high pressure system moving into the northern Plains from Canada will tighten the pressure gradient across the coastal waters. Moderate to fresh breezes are likely mid week. The next question would be if sustained winds would exceed Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Currently, we are not advertising windy weather. The high is forecast to rapidly move east across the country instead of sinking south towards the southern states. Keep an eye on the forecast because the high could move further south, slow down, deepen, or become weaker. Seasonal changes are chaotic and we are approaching spring!

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 69 80 68 79 / 20 10 20 10 Marathon 68 81 67 80 / 10 10 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.