textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably warm conditions will continue through the rest of the work week.

- Light to gentle breezes will continue for the next couple of days, with a brief uptick to gentle to moderate heading into the weekend.

- Rain chances will remain low through at least Saturday. A wetter pattern is possible beginning Sunday, although there is low confidence in rainfall amounts at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 216 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Thursday afternoon, with near-nil rain chances. Near-surface winds out of the southeast will remain sustained at 4 to 7 knots, veering to the southeast to south late in the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 1020 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, a small high pressure system centered east of the Florida Peninsula will drift southeastward today, resulting in gentle to moderate easterlies trending downwards and shifting southeast to south. A weak low pressure system swinging off the southeast coast on Thursday will slacken local breezes further and introduce variable direction. Another weak low will push across Florida late this week and into the weekend, likely supporting a period of gentle to moderate southeasterly breezes. Winds should slacken again later in the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 419 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026 Over the next couple of days the surface high will drift slowly southeastward towards the eastern Bahamas as a trough pushes off the Atlantic Coast. As a result, gentle easterly breezes this morning should slacken and veer southeasterly. The weakening flow will be perturbed by daytime heating, resulting in a more chaotic flow. Rain chances will remain slight with forcing remaining weak and dry air dominating persisting above 850 mb. In addition, forecast soundings suggest some capping will setup around 800 mb. Expect temperatures to remain seasonal with dew points holding near 70.

Heading into the weekend, troughing is expected to develop along the northern Gulf and deepen as it pushes across northern Florida. This will also effectively sharpen a surface ridge across the Bahamas and Cuba, and briefly bump up southeast to southerly breezes into the gentle to moderate range. The stronger more veered flow will bring in dew points in the mid 70s. While highs should go nowhere, overnight lows may struggle to slip below 80. This setup will likely result in a Cuban shadow, limiting rain chances. However, showers cannot be ruled out from the evening through late morning hours.

Winds will relax again out of the southwest to west late this weekend as the bulk of the previously mentioned trough lifts out into the north Atlantic trailing a weak trough axis across the Gulf. Deep layered moisture and lower level confluent flow is expected to increase early next week as stronger mid latitude troughing swings into the eastern United States, reaching down into South Florida. Guidance is hinting at mid to high chance pops through this stretch, including the potential for thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 76 85 76 86 / 10 0 0 0 Marathon 76 85 76 85 / 10 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.