textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Low chances (20 to 30%) for showers will continue through the overnight and into Monday night as moisture lingers across the area.

-Cold front moving through tonight will promote freshening northerly breezes. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for most if not all, of our local waters late tonight into early Monday morning.

-As high pressure builds over the region mid-week, mild, mostly dry conditions will be expected with gentle to moderate breezes.

MARINE

Issued at 135 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

The coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys remain in a col this afternoon with light to gentle northerly breezes. A cold front is poised to sweep through during the overnight hours. In the wake of the frontal passage, expect breezes to freshen to moderate to fresh breezes around and after midnight. Breezes will further freshen and fresh to strong breezes could sneak in before dawn Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions likely will occur in the Outer Gulf waters tonight and spread across the remaining waters towards dawn and during the morning on Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions expected ahead of the front that will move through later tonight. Light northerly winds this afternoon will gradually freshen ahead of the frontal passage. Expect winds to then sharply freshen after midnight and towards dawn Monday. A crosswind magnitude of 20 to 25 knots is likely, especially after 09Z/15th. In addition, MVFR CIGs could develop in the wake of the front but confidence is low at this time but will a deck at FL020.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 457 AM EST Sun Dec 14 2025

Weather conditions along the island chain have essentially plateaued during the overnight shift as persistent, but light, showers lingered. MRMS estimates rainfall totals over the past six hours have been up to a third of an inch across our island communities, but pockets of heavier showers over the distant Florida Straits may have produced approximately 3 to 5 inches. If those showers had moved over any portion of the Keys, this would have been a slam dunk for flooding. Fortunately, we do not need flood products for our local sea life. Automated observations are reporting temperatures in the lower 70s with dew points only a few degrees behind. While not terrible, the moisture is noticeable in the air when stepping outside.

Upper level support is still in place to support morning showers, but this support will gradually be pushed away today as troughing digs into the area. While this does mean that showers will gradually diminish, there is a tradeoff. Breezes will freshen drastically in the wake of the front, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as tonight. The northerly component to our winds will also keep temperatures on the cooler side, and highs over the next couple of days will reach the upper 70s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

High pressure building in will keep weather fairly benign over the middle of the week, and ensemble guidance suggests the next opportunity for meaningful rainfall may not be until the weekend. Even then, the agreement among ensemble members isn't great with respect to timing and rainfall amounts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 68 78 68 77 / 20 20 20 10 Marathon 68 75 68 76 / 20 30 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.