textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light and variable winds will persist into the first part of the weekend.

- A more active weather pattern develops by early next week with higher rain chances and increasing southeasterly winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1042 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

During the late afternoon, we had a feeble cloud line try and get its act together. It only managed a brief shower just east of Big Pine Key that lasted around 15 to 30 minutes before dissipating. Since then, the radar has been generally quiet, at least the KBYX radar. Some convection fired across the southern mainland and drifted offshore of Key Biscayne but also fell apart very quickly. What remains now are mid and high level clouds that are streaming in overhead of the Florida Keys.

We remain in a col and as such winds remain light and variable. The exception continues to be a small sliver just off the northern end of the Upper Keys. Here winds are southwest at 5 to 10 knots and this is due to the fact that a thermal trough that developed across South Florida earlier in the day, induced what I'm going to call a mesoscale coastal jet. This feature was present last night and developed once again during the afternoon hours.

Going forward, we will continue to remain in a col for one more day. We can expect light and variable winds across most locations with the exception of the northern end of the Upper Keys and the immediate coastal waters surrounding that area. The light and variable winds will keep conditions marginal for a cloud line to develop once again during the afternoon on Saturday. Otherwise, the signal continues for a more active, wetter period early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 1042 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Light and variable winds across most of the coastal waters except off the Upper Keys where light to gentle southwesterly breezes continue this hour. As high pressure strengthens in the North Atlantic, southeast breezes will freshen by the second half of the weekend and into early next week. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by next week as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with light and variable winds. Conditions are marginally favorable that a reverse cloud line may develop in the afternoon. Will keep mentions of VCSH for any future amendments.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.