textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A wetter pattern will remain in place as we head into the weekend while the best chances for thunder are confined to the Florida Straits. - Breezy to windy conditions will continue through Thursday, and gradually slacken thereafter.

- Pending the next update on the drought status along the Keys, drought conditions are expected to improve after beneficial rainfall continues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 906 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The unusually gloomy weather continues across the Keys. First, a robust surface ridge continues to drive moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breezes and holding temperatures several degrees below normal in the mid 60s with dew points in the lower 60s. Second, amplified troughing is stubbornly anchored from the lower to upper levels, above a fairly shallow boundary layer with only 2 to 3 degrees of dew point depressions. While the best lower level forcing is off to the east and southeast, the deep layered trough axis is off to our west and supporting overcast skies and isolated to scattered showers. Most of this activity is across the eastern Florida Straits, mainly along the Florida convergence boundary.

The deep layered trough is expected to remain stationary while amplifying a bit further overnight as another shortwave trough rides into the pattern. This will likely keep overcast skies due to near saturated layers through the lower and upper levels. While the best rain chances will be well off to our east and southeast, there will be a good chance for some precipitation closer to the island chain. Temperatures will likely remain about where they are, possibly loosing a degree or two. Dew points may also lose a point or two as drier air filters in.

MARINE

Issued at 906 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Robust surface ridge stretching along the southeast Atlantic and Gulf coast continues to drive fresh north to northeasterly breezes across our waters. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory continues for all marine zones. Expect breezes to remain fresh overnight. Winds will continue to peak and lull through the remainder of the work week and may finally trend downwards late Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 906 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The unusually long spell of MVFR ceilings will continue, likely through the night. Bases will be around 1500 ft. Winds will remain moderate to fresh out of the north, resulting in significant crosswinds.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.