textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect. Low lying areas will see minor saltwater ponding around the times of high tide.

- Forecast confidence for this weekend through early next week is low. Regardless, elevated rain chances along with breezy to windy conditions will be possible.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The aforementioned front above in the discussion section will continue to remain fairly stationary south of the Keys today. By tonight, the front is anticipated to start lifting back north as a warm front bringing increasing dew points and moisture. Breezes will remain elevated as the high to the north and lower pressure to the south of the Keys keeps a strengthened pressure gradient across the area. Rain chances remain at 40% for today and tonight with higher rain chances remaining just south of the Island Chain.

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure is centered over the Southeast U.S. extending eastward into the western North Atlantic. In addition, the weak front that passed through yesterday remains stalled across the Straits of Florida early this morning. This will promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes over the next several days. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms over the next few days as this weak and diffuse front remains in the area. Late week, confidence is slowly increasing for a rather strong cold front driving southeastward through the Gulf and towards the Florida Keys over the weekend. Overall, this front, if it reaches the Keys, will be capable of bringing hazardous marine conditions as well as a potentially rather wet period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026 VFR conditions are largely expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. However, there is the potential for some brief periods of MVFR CIGs, especially during the daylight hours. There is even the low probability for VIS to be reduced as well to MVFR, potentially even IFR. There remains the risk for passing downpours and thunderstorms throughout the TAF period with the best chance time as of now being during the morning into the early afternoon hours. Near surface winds are expected to remain northeast to east throughout the period.

CLIMATE

On this day in 2014, the daily record warm low temperature of 83F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, on this day in 2018, the daily record warm low temperature of 82F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951.

OF NOTE In 1964, Category 3 Hurricane Isbell moved northeast off of the western tip of Cuba, passing just west of the Marquesas Keys and northwest of the Keys. In Key West, the minimum pressure was 29.49" and the peak wind was 73 mph with a 4-5' tide and $1.42 million (2018 USD) in damage.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 88 81 89 82 / 40 50 40 40 Marathon 88 81 89 82 / 40 40 40 40

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.