textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal rain chances are expected through the weekend.

- Gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes expected over the next few days. - Near normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The 00z evening sounding displays a moist atmospheric profile, though, there is noticeable dry air in the lowest several thousand feet. The PWAT value measured was 2.09 inches which is above the 90th percentile for the date. Also, the CAPE value measured was virtually 0 J/kg meaning that activity earlier today basically used up all the juice and instability in the atmosphere. That being said, the air mass has most likely been stabilized across the Keys, at least for now. There remains rain chances overnight, though, based on the latest profile of the atmosphere, showers overnight may be far and few between. At the very best, showers and thunderstorms may have a tough time redeveloping at least until some daytime heating is able to take place again. We expect the next several hours to remain shower free, though, some indications are for some isolated showers to develop after 06/06z. Due to this, no changes to the ongoing forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 There are currently, no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, an expansive eastern United States surface high will move off the Carolina Coast will push into the Atlantic over the next few days. As a result, mostly moderate easterly breezes will gradually give way to gentle to moderate easterlies this weekend. The recent bout of increased shower and thunderstorm activity is nearing its end, and convective potential will fall closer to normal through this period. Early next week the high will have pushed out into the Atlantic and weak troughing is expected to set up over Cuba and the Bahamas. This will tip breezes a bit further southeasterly with, initially, some additional slackening. By midweek, unsettled weather and increased rain and thunder chances will return to the Keys.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. After the deluge today, especially for EYW, a drier pattern is expected for the next few days. However, chances for showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms do remain, especially after 06/06z continuing through Saturday. Since there is decent agreement for shower activity after 06/06z, VCSH was included in the TAF. It should be noted that any shower activity over the next 24 hours won't be like today. Other than that, near surface winds will remain east to southeast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 87 79 87 80 / 70 50 30 30 Marathon 85 79 86 79 / 70 30 20 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.