textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal rain chances are expected through Monday.

- Gentle to moderate easterly breezes are expected over the next few days. - Rain chances will trend upward beginning Tuesday or Wednesday.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The 00z evening sounding shows a mostly dry atmospheric profile with some moisture in the lowest few thousand feet. The PWAT value measured was 1.41 inches which is right at the 25th percentile for the date indicating a dry air mass remains in place for the time being across the Keys. The CAPE value measured was 1453 J/kg indicating some instability, though, this is low compared to some of the values measured last week. The wind profile remains mainly unidirectional with easterly breezes of 15 to 20 knots between 1000 to 3000 ft. Overall, expect more of the same through the overnight with some isolated showers due more to speed convergence, perhaps, some directional convergence. Since this is the only lifting mechanism in the area, no changes are expected to the ongoing forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a broad high centered just off the southeast Atlantic Coast will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys for the next couple of days. While the ridge will stretch out into the Atlantic early this week, it will also be reinforced by a new high moving off the Atlantic Coast, holding gentle to moderate easterlies. Uncertainty picks up heading into mid week. All guidance points to a robust trough migrating westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Winds are expected to shift southeasterly and should stay gentle to moderate, but could vary quite a bit depending on the exact behavior of the trough. Overall, moisture will increase, along with greater confluence, resulting in increasing shower and thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. Near surface winds are expected to remain east to southeast through the period. There remains the risk for a passing shower or storm, though, confidence in timing and placement is too low, therefore, VCSH was no included in the TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 88 81 89 81 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 87 80 87 80 / 20 20 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.