textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Very warm and humid conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, and will lead to a moderate to high risk for heat- related illnesses through the remainder of the weekend and well into next week. - Rain and thunder chances will peak tonight through Monday, before gradually decreasing through the middle of next week.
- A period of on and off breezy conditions will begin later tonight, and will help to mitigate some of the discomfort from warm overnight temperatures.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. Cloud bases are near FL025, so occasional MVFR CIG observations are possible, but will not be representative of the area near either air field. Southeasterly surface winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Enhanced moisture will encourage short lived showers to pass by, but there is low confidence regarding placement. Opting to keep VCSH for now as categorical changes are unlikely with any light shower.
MARINE
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026 High pressure centered just north of Bermuda will continue to promote slowly freshening mainly east to southeast breezes through the remainder of the weekend. Breezes will remain moderate to fresh through at least Tuesday before gradually slackening.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 426 AM EDT Sun May 17 2026
Breezy conditions are becoming increasingly likely, beginning as early as tonight. Thereafter, we expect breezy conditions to linger through at least Monday night. Then the high will gradually flatten out as an upper level trough becomes cut-off and sits across the southwestern North Atlantic near the Bahamas. While an easterly flow will persist through the end of the new work week, pockets of relatively drier air will move through, dropping rain chances towards the end of the week.
Lastly, a prolonged easterly regime means the air mass will be changing very little if at all. In fact, current guidance suggests that some island communities could tie or set new records for high temperatures during the week. This coupled with dew points in the mid 70s will continue to maintain a limited to elevated risk for heat-related illnesses..
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 81 91 80 91 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 80 87 80 87 / 30 30 30 30
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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