textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized ponding of saltwater will remain possible during times of high tide across the Florida Keys as tidal levels trend down through the end of the week.

- The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, and will bring stronger winds and higher seas to the area. - After a brief lull this weekend, another frontal system will bring another round of windy and showery weather will move in early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 904 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 Recent nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows two separate areas of interest across the region with high and mid level clouds streaming eastward across the Gulf waters as a 100 kt jet streak embedded within the subtropical jet remains positioned in a near zonal (west-to-east) orientation around the northern Gulf coast. The other area of interest is a cluster of convection in the northwest Caribbean that is ongoing this evening, which appears to be the result of a combination of factors such as deep tropical moisture with PWATs as high as 2.5 inches and a large area of southeasterly low level steering flow on the southwestern flank of an anti-cyclone east of the Lesser Antilles, which is generating an area of speed convergence in this region in the vicinity of weak surface troughing. At the moment, the Florida Keys remain between these two aforementioned features with a pocket of relatively drier air, which is due to the influence from surface ridging extending from high pressure in southwest Atlantic. Eventually, the influence of this high pressure will lessen overnight into Thursday as an upper level trough deepens across the eastern US and high pressure drifts further offshore.

The combination of increasing moisture associated with a pre-frontal trough across central Florida and a surge of tropical moisture from the Caribbean will support a gradual moistening trend across the Keys overnight into Thursday. While the deeper tropical moisture across the Caribbean spreads north-northeastward on a veering low-level flow, the pre-frontal trough will gradually slide southward across south Florida into Thursday, potentially setting up a confluence zone across the Keys. Recent hi-res guidance has become a bit more bullish on this set up potentially favoring scattered to maybe even numerous showers with some embedded storms in the Straits Thursday morning, despite the higher moisture values remaining mainly just to the southeast of our marine zones near Cay Sal. Regardless, this is something that will need to be monitored closely overnight as forecast adjustments may be needed to eventually increase PoPs mostly across the Straits and possibly Hawk Channel, but confidence is not high enough to make adjustments so will keep the slight/chance mention wording in place for now.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 A fairly uneventful Veterans Day is in place along the Florida Keys as weak high pressure is still gradually traversing the area. The low level anticyclonic flow is still most obvious on visible satellite when we monitor the cloud field. Most of this lower level cumulus clouds are simply existing, but our KBYX radar has been detecting pockets of showers across the westernmost Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf waters. These showers have likely been triggered by near surface wind convergence as winds round the center of the high. As the high drifts farther eastward, this wind convergence may approach the island chain and a few communities could see a stray light shower later tonight. Its nearly impossible to pinpoint exactly where each little shower will pop up, so well continue to convey a broad slight chance for rain (10% at best). These warm and somewhat muggy conditions will continue through the rest of tonight and most of tomorrow as the last of the high is pushed away.

Over the course of Thursday and Friday, a cold front will dig down through the Gulf and Florida peninsula. Winds will shift drastically from southwest to west and eventually northwesterly as a result. The leading edge of the front will provide some lift, but the extent of shower and thunderstorm coverage will depend on how far south the front can make it. At the time were writing this, the best rain chances look to occur Thursday night at 30%, but this may change a little bit as we get closer to the arrival of the front.

This front is not expected to stick around for very long, and a brief lull is expected for the first half of the weekend. Guidance continues to highlight a reinforcing backdoor front sometime Sunday evening. Probabilistic guidance suggests this front will bring even windier conditions to the Florida Keys with a 20% to 40% chance for sustained winds greater than 20 mph early next week. Naturally, this forecast will be adjusted in the coming days as the first front works its way through the area, but the door will be open for an extended period of breezy to windy conditions and elevated rain chances.

MARINE

Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. High pressure is gradually being nudged out of the area by troughing to our north, and we will see the environment respond with breezes veering clockwise and slackening over the course tonight and Thursday morning. As the troughing trails deeper down the Florida peninsula, the gradient will tighten and breezes will begin to freshen. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines and hazards may be required as early as Friday afternoon and evening. Hazardous winds from the first front are not expected to last very long, but higher seas may take more time to subside. Even though winds will briefly slacken during the weekend, a reinforcing front Sunday night and Monday morning will bring hazardous marine conditions again, and we may see an extended period of strong winds and higher seas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 904 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 Winds will be from the southeast at the beginning of the TAF period, shifting clockwise to the southwest by Thursday morning and eventually shifting to the northwest by the end of the TAF period. Wind speeds will remain light around 4 to 7 knots, though a slight increase is possible by Thursday evening. Plenty of moisture surrounds the forecast area, leading to an increase in mid and upper level clouds in the late morning and into the afternoon. In addition, scattered SHRA with the potential of a few embedded storms could develop in the vicinity of the terminals, which may cause brief VSBY restrictions at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.