textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Winds have clocked northwest to north and freshened considerably following a late afternoon cold front. Gale Warnings are in effect for Keys coastal waters not in lee of mainland Florida, with Small Craft Advisories everywhere else.

-The cold air mass behind the front along with one, possibly two, reinforcing front(s), have a good potential of keeping temperatures well below normal for the duration of the week.

-The reinforcing fronts will contribute to additional periodic and significant wind surges through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026 Windy conditions have descended upon the Florida Keys as a late afternoon cold front blasted through our waters. A blanket of low level stratus rushed over the island chain following a thin line of deteriorating pre-frontal showers. Overcast skies prevailed for the majority of the evening, yet GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics now shows gaps in this cloud cover. Winds have ramped quite a bit and even exceeded original expectations with near gale sustained winds along most of our observations on the Reef. So much so that a Gale Warning was included with the evening update package for our waters not in lee of mainland Florida. Meanwhile, temperatures have also seen a dramatic change with values already in the mid 60s. Dew points are even lower in the upper 50s creating a much different sensible weather environment than 24 hours ago.

This evening's 00z KKEY sounding captured essentially the middle of the frontal passage. Extremely moist but low instability lower to mid levels with dry air starting at 500 mb. While a good explanation of the traces of rainfall dotted across the Keys earlier this evening, CIMSS MIMIC PW notes a much drier air mass rushing into our CWA. This is due to the strong to near gale northwest to north winds promoted by the back half of the surface trough behind the front. Winds will remain elevated throughout the night before finally letting up in the late morning hours tomorrow as breezes veer to the north to northeast. Low temperatures before sunrise are forecast to hit the upper 50s with tomorrows highs in the upper 60s kicking off what looks to be a cool late winter week.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026 A Gale Warning is in effect for the SE Gulf, Bayside/Gulfside waters, and the Hawk Channel and Straits of Florida west of Craig Key. All other zones are under a Small Craft Advisory. From synopsis, winds have freshened substantially following this evening's frontal passage through the Keys marine zones, clocking around to the northwest to north and becoming strong to near gale, gusting up to near 35 knots. Winds will relax substantially on Tuesday, as high pressure builds southeastward through the Southeast and across the Florida Peninsula. Additional wind surges are becoming increasingly likely Tuesday night into Wednesday night, as a reinforcing cold front rolls southward across the area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026 MVFR CIGs will gradually decline at both EYW and MTH overnight following this evening's frontal passage. While VFR conditions will follow starting early in the morning, crosswind concerns of near 20 knots with some higher gusts will persist until the late morning hours when breezes finally decline.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 58 68 58 67 / 10 0 0 10 Marathon 57 68 57 66 / 10 0 0 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.