textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle easterly breezes will continue through Tuesday night with spotty showers bringing light, but not significant, rainfall.

- There is high confidence for a wetter pattern setting up for the middle of the week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

- Near the end of the week, breezy to possibly windy conditions may return.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Afternoon showers near both terminals may lead to occasional MVFR CIG observations, but the prevailing flight category will remain VFR. SCT to BKN decks are sitting between FL030 and 040. A window without VCSH was put in between 02Z and 10Z, but shower activity will generally wax and wane throughout the entire TAF period. Surface winds of 5 to 10 knots will become variable at times, particularly overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Later this week, the environment becomes much more complicated. A high pressure system descending out of central Canada into the Northern Plains will be sufficient to force a frontal boundary towards South Florida by tomorrow morning. The uncertainties revolve around where, exactly, the front stalls. Recent statistical models suggests the front will stall further north. This scenario places a general warm sector environment directly over the Florida Keys for most of the week. These conditions could start as soon as early Tuesday morning when moisture replaces the drier air aloft.

In contrast to the precipitation forecast, there is low confidence in the wind forecast later in the week. The strength of easterly breezes across the Keys depends on where and when the frontal boundary stalls. The difference between the 10th and 90th percentile wind speeds over the island chain on Wednesday is almost 13 mph. The current consensus favors light to gentle breezes as the frontal boundary approaches the Keys, gentle to moderate breezes after the boundary stalls, and then freshening to moderate to fresh breezes late in the week after the Atlantic High rebuilds enough to force the boundary south of the Keys. The pattern is complex, and it will not be a shock if the wind forecast changes by tomorrow morning. However, the prolonged period of moisture will be much appreciated.

MARINE

Issued at 1026 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, light to gentle winds across all local waters will persist through Tuesday to Tuesday night. A high pressure system building over the Northern Plains early this week will be sufficient to force a frontal boundary south towards the Florida Keys. There is high confidence that the environment will favor widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms midweek. However, whether gentle or fresh to strong breezes are observed over the Keys waters before the weekend depends on where the frontal boundary moves. The current forecast places more confidence on the front stalling north of the our local Gulf waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 72 81 69 / 20 30 40 40 Marathon 82 72 80 70 / 20 40 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.