textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle east to southeast breezes are expected today.

- Conditions are shaping up to be favorable for island cloud line development as well as waterspout formation today, particularly this afternoon near the Lower Keys.

- A typical summertime pattern will continue today into tonight, with near or slightly below normal rain chances and warm and muggy conditions continuing.

- A weak Saharan Air Layer is on track to move over the Florida Keys by mid week and diminish shower chances for a day or two. Heat indices may creep towards 110 around mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge remains in control of our weather. Winds are light to gentle out of the southeast. This flow is maintaining warm and humid conditions with temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Convective activity is quite sparse this hour with only a few showers on our distant gulf and straits waters.

The western flank of the Atlantic ridge will begin strengthening today as it steadily lifts northward into Central Florida. As a result, winds will steadily firm up out of the east to southeast. This change is expected to contribute to an environment conducive for waterspout formation along an island cloud line this afternoon, especially in the Lower Keys. Expect continued seasonable warm and humid conditions.

Winds will freshen further tonight as the ridge strengthens and becomes positioned further north. For the next few days, east to southeasterly breezes will tend to peak in the evening and lull during the day. Spells of breezy conditions are likely. Drier and more stable air is expected to move in and by Wednesday, rain chances are expected to slip to dimes or less, lasting a day or two. Expect continued slightly above normal temperatures with the increased flow doing an even better job at holding temperatures up in the mid 80s. Dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Heading into late week, guidance is pointing towards a cut off upper low working its way westward across the central Bahamas and weaken as it shifts into Cuba and Florida Straits. An associated lower level inverted trough will push westward across our region in this time frame. This may bring with it increasing instability and low level moisture. As a result, rain chances should jump up, becoming at least a mid to high chance. This is not yet fully reflected in the current forecast. Much drier lower levels will be hot on its heels and the later portion of the weekend and rain chances should drop back to dimes or less.

MARINE

Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

An Atlantic ridge stretching across South Florida will lift northward over the next couple of days. Winds will be light to gentle out of the east to southeast today. This is setting up an environment that will be favorable for waterspout formation, particularly near the Lower Keys this afternoon. As the ridge lifts northward, freshening east to southeasterly breezes will build in, peaking in the evening and lulling during the day. At least cautions will be required for portions of Keys waters beginning tonight, and periodically be required for the following few days. Overall, convective chances will be slightly below normal and trend further downwards after mid week. However, heading into late week, a lower level trough is expected to migrate westward across our area. While wind speeds should ease off a bit, winds will have a higher chance of being affected by increased convective coverage.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the east to southeast. VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. However, the steering currents will become more favorable for cloud line build up to stick closer to the island chain this afternoon. There is a good chance these cells will deliver rounds of sub VFR to the terminals or their vicinity, particularly at Key West.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 84 91 84 / 20 10 10 10 Marathon 91 83 92 84 / 20 10 20 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.