textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will generally be favorable for waterspout formation along portions of the Island Chain through late afternoon.

- Increased moisture content associated with the remnants of tropical system Dolly may bring a period of enhanced rain chances by Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 While VFR conditions will generally prevail at both island terminals through 18z Thursday afternoon, copious low-level moisture may result in bouts of vicinity showers, mainly through the afternoon hours today, then again in the late overnight and early morning hours. Have included several windows of mention of VCSH for now, with impacts to ceilings and visbilities left to possible TEMPOs due to the chaotic nature of any storm development.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 951 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 The 12z sounding at KEY sampled an uninhibited environment, with deep moisture extending from the surface up to around the 700 mb isobaric surface. Surface pressure and wind analysis highlights a nebulous flow pattern, with a weak area of high pressure extending across the North Atlantic, with a weak surface trough approaching the eastern Bahamas. Outside of briefly rain-cooled Key West, temperatures are generally in the upper 80s on this September morning.

For the rest of today, lurking boundaries across the Keys marine zones may interact with possible island cloud line development. We will be on the watch for possible waterspout formation associated with any cloud line development. Given the aforementioned copious moisture, it will not take much to trigger any of these storms to grow to larger coverage than a typical cloud line mesoscale day. The inherited mid-level chance (40%) PoPs seems on track, with no changes proposed.

MARINE

Issued at 951 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026 Conditions will be generally favorable for waterspout formation through the late afternoon hours in the vicinity of the Island Chain. Mariners are reminded that a waterspout would most likely appear beneath a dark, flat bottom of a building cumulus line, just at the hint of rain.

From synopsis, the western periphery of an Atlantic high remains in control of the Keys for the next several days. Therefore, expect continued peaking and lulling breezes. The direction will also vary over the next few days with east to southeasterly breezes overnight and in the morning, becoming northeast to east breezes late afternoon and evening. In addition, the overall flow will keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.