textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms expected as an unsettled weather pattern continues into the early part of this week. - Mainly light to gentle broadly easterly breezes will continue through the weekend, though occasional periods of moderate breezes are expected.

- The Remnants of Dolly remain East of the Leeward Islands and may bring a period of much higher rain chances by the middle of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1105 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move in a NW direction late this morning mostly across western portions of the KEY CWA as greatest coverage has been observed across the western Straits, Hawk Channel around the Lower Keys, Dry Tortugas, and the Southeast Gulf waters. The 12Z KEY RAOB sampled a PWAT of 2.09 inches, which lies firmly between the 75th and 90th percentile for this particular release, and similar to yesterday morning, inhibition is basically non-existent. Thus, additional scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms are expected to continue to move across the region throughout early to mid afternoon, though most CAMs are in agreement that a gradual decrease in coverage will occur later this afternoon and evening as the low-level flow becomes more diffluent, which is typical in southeasterly flow regimes for our region due to the diurnal sea breeze effects of the Florida peninsula and Cuba. While rain chances should then increase yet again overnight as these diurnal effects fade with time, there is some signal that overall coverage may be a bit less tonight compared to previous nights as the southeast low-level flow pattern may start to become slightly disrupted by the presence of the remnants of Dolly upstream, which is located near the Leeward Islands at the moment and will move towards the vicinity of Hispaniola by tonight. In addition, some drier air well in advance of this disturbance will attempt to advect into the region tonight, mostly in the mid levels, as mid-level ridging from the SW Atlantic merges with another ridge in the central CONUS into Monday, further aiding in keeping rain chances a touch lower overnight. Otherwise, high temperatures should reach around 90 to the low 90s across the Island Chain today with the slightly warmer areas likely to be where less precipitation activity occurs.

FORECAST

The unsettled pattern is expected to continue again today with no end in sight for the rainier regime. The main picture will continue to feature the Atlantic ridge with its western periphery extending westward into the Keys. Abundant moisture remains in place across the Keys today resulting in 50% PoPs. Also, once again this may still be too low for today and may very end up being more of a 60% or even a 70% kind of day. An update will be issued if warranted depending on what radar looks like. Global and numerical model guidance PWAT normalized anomaly shows ever slightly drier air moving into the Keys tonight continuing through at least Tuesday night. Slightly higher moisture on Tuesday results in 50% whereas all the other periods tonight through Monday night, and Tuesday night remain at 40%.

With that said, the forecast beyond Tuesday night/Wednesday of this week continues to look rather interesting. However, there seems to be slightly more agreement during this time frame than 24 hours ago. Of course, we all continue to watch the remnants of Dolly which are currently moving into the Lesser Antilles this morning. This is expected to continue moving westward perhaps even a little north of west through the remainder of the weekend bringing some beneficial rains to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The remnants and its moisture will continue moving west northwest gliding along the northern fringe of Hispaniola and eventually moving adjacent the Cuba coastline. It appears that the moisture associated with Dolly reaches the Keys sometime Wednesday and continues to affect the region through Thursday. Therefore, likely Pops are in the forecast for this time frame with 60%. Granted there still remains uncertainty with this but the latest trends seem to be that it will continue lumbering along and eventually move into the Gulf. The key takeaways remain an increase in moisture equaling higher rain chances, increase in cloud cover, and slightly cooler temperatures. We will continue to monitor this over the next several days and provide updates accordingly.

Behind the remnants of Dolly, moisture will remain, just not as deep as the mid week time frame. Rain chances return back to chances (50%), though, still remain elevated for late week and into the holiday weekend. After all, it is September at this point.

The Keys will continue to be dominated by the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge for the next several days. This will continue to yield to peaking and lulling breezes through the remainder of the weekend and into the early to middle part of this upcoming week. However, the wind direction will also follow suit with east to southeast breezes during the early morning to early afternoon hours followed by northeast to east breezes in the mid to late afternoon into the early overnight hours. Daytime highs will continue to be near 90 degrees with overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s, cooler in and near shower and storms. Dew points will remain soupy in the mid to upper 70s. September is knocking at the door and Florida will very much live up to its name for this time of year with daily rain chances.

TROPICS: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor two areas for potential tropical cyclone development. The first is East of the Lesser Antilles (Remnants of Dolly) which has a low or near 0 percent chance of development in 48 hours and low or 10 percent chance through the next 7 days. Also, across the Northern Gulf of America (Invest 97L) is another area being watched for potential development. This one also has a low or 10% percent chance of development over 48 hours and low or 20% chance of development through the next 7 days. Both of these areas currently pose no threat to the Keys at this time, though, Dolly's remnants will very likely bring increased rain chances.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. The western periphery of an Atlantic high remains in control of the Keys for the next several days. Therefore, expect continued peaking and lulling breezes. The direction will also shift over the coming days with east to southeasterly breezes overnight and in the morning with northeast to east breezes late afternoon and evening. In addition, the overall flow will keep deep moisture in place across the region with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally hazardous winds and seas are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across the Island Chain through tonight, but occasional scattered SHRA/TSRA activity could impact the region, possibly yielding brief MVFR/IFR restrictions during periods of heavier precipitation. Otherwise, SE winds will be near 10 kts through tonight and gradually shift to more easterly into Monday.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.