textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle easterlies will gradually become gentle to moderate, and remain through the end of the week.

- Elevated rain and thunder chances expected through the end of the work week.

- Rain chances return to near normal for the weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Moist confluent flow feeding into weakening low pressure over the northeastern Gulf coast is contributing to considerable shower and thunderstorm activity across the eastern Gulf this morning. The kinematics are quite different across the majority of the forecast area as a surface through lower level ridge is building in. Across this large portion of the forecast area, only a few showers and and thunderstorms have been evident on local radars. For the time being, winds remain light to gentle out of the east with temperatures slowly settling down through the mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s.

The congestion occurring to our west will gradually migrate further west and northwestward away from our area as the surface through lower level ridge strengthens and lifts northward towards North Florida and the Gulf coast. As the ridge doe so, easterly breezes will trend upwards, becoming gentle to occasionally moderate. Deep layered moisture is expected to remain quite high as a cut off upper low slowly lumbers its way west southwestward across our area. This will help to keep neutral to slightly troughy flow through the lower levels and deep layered moisture will remain quite high. In addition, the environment will remain unstable and uncapped. As a result, shower and thunder chances will remain above normal for the remainder of the week. Expect seasonable near 90 highs, and lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points should remain in the mid to upper 70s.

Rain chances should slip to near or slightly below normal this weekend in to early next week as ridging becomes more dominant through the mid and upper levels, allowing moisture levels to fall to near or slightly below normal. In addition, the lower level ridge will shift slightly southward, allowing east to southeasterly breezes to relax to a gentle breezes. No trend in temperatures or dew points are expected in the extended.

MARINE

Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

An Atlantic high centered well off the Mid Atlantic coast extends a ridge west southwestward across Florida and into the gulf. Over the course of the next several days, this ridge will shift west southwestward closer to the Carolina coast, while its western flank shifts northward into the southeastern states. As a result, easterly breezes will trend upwards, becoming moderate over the next day or so, and hold there for the duration of the forecast. A number of subtle lower level undulations with continued high available will keep shower and thunderstorm chances above normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 400 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. With that said, shower and thunderstorm chances will be somewhat higher than normal. Surface winds will be light easterlies, becoming gentle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 92 81 92 83 / 40 10 60 60 Marathon 90 81 90 83 / 40 40 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.