textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure dominant across the area will continue to support relatively unremarkable weather through at least Thursday. - Generally moderate to fresh (especially in the Straits) east to southeast breezes will prevail today, eventually veering to the southeast and slackening by early Thursday. - Moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. Increasing moisture is anticipated towards late in the week and over the weekend bringing some beneficial rain.

FORECAST

High pressure centered near Bermuda will remain the main driver for the Florida Keys sensible weather through Thursday morning. The western side of this ridge extends over Florida and into the Gulf. This will continue to promote gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes through tonight. The high will start to retreat into the Atlantic early Thursday leading to breezes shifting to the southeast to south and eventually south to southwest as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. Breezes will also slacken as a result of the pressure gradient weakening across the area. There may even be a period of variable breezes Thursday evening/night due to weak and nebulous flow across the area. Dry air remains entrenched across the Keys early this morning. Near nil rain chances are expected through tonight as a result. Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday with daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s.

The pattern is about to change across much of Florida Thursday continuing through the weekend and into early next week. The robust upper level ridge that has been dominating the pattern is about to breakdown. This will lead to more upper level troughing across the area with multiple embedded shortwaves moving through the base of this trough. That being said, basically an unsettled pattern is expected to ensue across the area starting Thursday night continuing into early next week. At the surface, a frontal boundary drifting southeastward towards Florida will draw Atlantic and Caribbean moisture northward leading to increasing rain chances through the extended. Instability is also expected to increase leading to the potential for thunderstorms beginning Friday night continuing through the weekend and into early next week. Cloud cover will also increase compared to recent days as a result. Some days may be wetter than others, however, it is too early still to pinpoint the exact details. The main takeaway is expect rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday night. Since a more unsettled pattern is upon us, this may lead to some very beneficial rain for the area as well as Florida in general. Also, dew points will only subtly decrease by a degree or two making any change barely noticeable.

Looking at the end of the extended, there may be signs of yet another front towards Saint Patrick's Day. However, this is too far out to hone in on any details at this time. Also, the later we get into spring the less likely it will be that these fronts will push through. Stay tuned!

MARINE

Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution is headlined across the Straits of Florida for today. From synopsis, high pressure is centered to the east of Bermuda with the western periphery of this ridge extending west into Florida and the Gulf. The high will retreat farther out into the Atlantic through early Thursday shifting breezes to the southeast to south. A cold front will steadily push southeastward into South Florida through the remainder of the week and the weekend. Breezes will shift to the south to southwest and eventually become variable sometime late Thursday/Thursday night. Since the front isn't expected to reach the Keys, high pressure regains control and thus returns breezes back to the east to southeast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. There may be occasional periods of MVFR CIGs which will be handled with TEMPO groups if need be. Near surface winds will remain east to southeast between 8 to 15 knots with occasional gusts to near 20 knots.

CLIMATE

On this day in 1931, the daily record low temperature of 53F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 84 76 84 75 / 0 0 10 20 Marathon 83 76 83 75 / 0 0 10 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.