textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to gentle north to northeast breezes will persist overnight throughout the Florida Keys coastal waters before shifting to the northeast to east Wednesday.

- Rain and thunder chances will continue the trend upwards, peaking Wednesday night and Thursday.

- Little relief is expected overnight from the heat, though with the wetter pattern arriving, temperatures should trend downwards to near normal, especially for the back half of the week.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

The 00z evening sounding continues to remain unstable with a CAPE value measured of 1351 J/kg. While the profile remains generally moist, there are some dry air layers that could inhibit activity overnight. The layers were observed from the surface up to around 800 mb and 750 mb to 550 mb. The PWAT value measured was 2.01 inches which is slightly higher than the 90th percentile for the date. The wind profile in the lowest 3000 ft is unidirectional out of the north with speeds of 5 to 10 knots. There remains numerous boundaries across the Keys, especially across the Upper Keys. With virtually all the air untapped across much of the Keys, these boundaries most likely will flare up with additional convection overnight. Most of the activity should remain on the weaker side, however, once we begin to get the upper level support Wednesday onward, expect the convection to have more ferocity. Therefore, current thinking is to hold with the 40% overnight leading to no forecast changes.

MARINE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle north to northeast breezes will persist overnight and Wednesday as weak high pressure remains in control. Expect rain and thunder chances to climb well above normal for Wednesday through at least Thursday night due to a weak frontal boundary pushing southward towards the Keys. Guidance is pointing to this frontal boundary to scrape through Keys waters through the back half of the week resulting in a period or two of freshened northeast to easterly breezes. Rain chances should slip towards normal by this weekend as drier air moves in.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026 VFR conditions will persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the overnight period. The beginning of a much wetter pattern is set to begin Wednesday morning which will continue for the next 36 to 48 hours. Latest indications are for showers and thunderstorms to potentially develop in the vicinity of either terminal around 03/12z Wednesday with the threat continuing through the remainder of the period. Any activity will be capable of producing MVFR CIGs and VIS, produce gusty winds in and around convection, and occasional lightning strikes. There is also the slim possibility of brief IFR CIGs and VIS with any of the activity, though, this is slightly lower confidence.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 81 88 78 / 30 40 60 70 Marathon 88 81 87 78 / 30 40 60 70

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.