textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Showery conditions will develop today with a 30% chance of rain along the Florida Keys.

- As drier weather builds in tomorrow, a short-lived period of breeze conditions will arrive by tomorrow evening.

- After a brief lull over the first half of this weekend, a stronger cold front on Sunday will open the door for an extended period of windy conditions with a chance (30% to 40%) of rain.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 931 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026 While the very early morning hours were generally quiet for our island communities, the combination of light winds and mostly clear skies over Big Pine Key allowed for some radiational cooling! Just before sunrise, the RAWS station on Big Pine reported a temperature of 69F. The rest of our observation sites reported lows in the mid 70s, and this shows how efficiently we can radiate when the conditions are right. Our KBYX radar has been busy detecting shower activity across the local waters, and an occasional thunderstorm has been spotted as well. Southerly flow across the waters to our south converged with westerly flow over the waters to our northwest, allowing for ample lift to get showers going. Even though our 12Z sounding from this morning showed a fair amount of moisture throughout the vertical column, we have not seen very many thunderstorms over the past few hours. Most of this activity has avoided our marine observation platforms, but we suspect that most of these showers are producing moderate to heavy downpours with occasionally gusty winds near 20 knots, or near 23 mph.

Visible satellite shows a long swath of mid to high level cloud cover associated with a cold front/surface trough descending down the Gulf and Florida peninsula. While we should be able to see some patches of blue sky in between clouds, expect cloud cover to continue to increase. The leading edge of this trough will lose some of it's "oomph" as it gets closer to our area, so widespread showers and thunderstorms aren't necessarily a concern. However, pockets of heavier showers may cross the island chain at times as the day goes on. Late tonight and into tomorrow, we'll see drier conditions start to filter in as the conveyer of moisture if very narrow, but breezy conditions may settle in by tomorrow afternoon.

The forecast is unfolding as expected, and no changes are needed with this morning update.

MARINE

Issued at 931 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, troughing associated with a large and robust low pressure system will gradually build south across the Florida Keys today. This will result in a strengthening pressure gradient, allowing winds to slowly back to the west and northwest and freshen. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines and hazards may be required as early as Friday afternoon and evening. Hazardous winds from this first front are not expected to last very long, but higher seas may take more time to subside. Even though winds will briefly slacken during the weekend, a reinforcing front Sunday night and Monday morning will bring hazardous marine conditions again, and we may see an extended period of strong winds and higher seas.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 931 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026 A mix of VFR and occasional MVFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as unsettled weather is developing across the area. SCT to BKN cloud bases will remain near FL030 and FL040 with an additional BKN deck near FL120. Most of the shower activity will remain over the nearby waters, but an occasional shower may brush near either terminal. Therefore, a broad VCSH is in the package beginning around 21Z. Southeasterly surface winds near 10 knots will back to the west and northwest throughout the period as a front approaches. However, northerly crosswind concerns may begin to develop at the very end of the 15Z period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 74 81 69 / 30 30 20 10 Marathon 84 74 82 67 / 30 30 20 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.