textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- A more active weather pattern will develop with higher chances for showers and thunderstorms starting tonight.

- Highest rain chances are expected to occur late tonight into Wednesday with a brief lull, followed by another round of higher chances for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 444 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 An active night has turned into a peaceful morning for the Florida Keys! KBYX radar is now shower-free though Nighttime Microphysics is displaying upper level clouds still over a majority of our CWA. Even though showers have diminished in comparison to earlier, the air still remains very moist. MIMIC PWAT reveals around 2 inches of precipitable water in our area. Temperatures are a little lower this morning than previous morning's likely cooling from last nights shower activity. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s. Along the Reef, marine locations are recording southerly winds at near 5 knots. For today, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon after the atmosphere has time to recharge from last nights events.

As winds become southeasterly and freshen starting tonight into Wednesday rain chances will start to become higher due to the influx of tropical moisture. As a ridge starts to try to build in over South Florida we will see a slight lull in convection activity before it ramping back up to higher chances to end out the week. By Saturday rain chances will return to near normal for this time of year.

MARINE

Issued at 444 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Floria Keys waters. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes will return by this afternoon before wind speeds increase to the gentle to moderate range for mid to late week as a southeasterly flow pattern develops. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by tonight as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. As chances for showers and thunderstorms increase, mariners can expect higher winds and seas near this activity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, for the time being VCTS is included but if direct impacts are expected TEMPOs will be included. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.