textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for all Keys waters by Saturday morning, persisting through at least early next week. Near- gale breezes will be possible at times Sunday evening through Monday evening.

- Gusty winds in frequent fast-moving showers will likely push through the Keys sometime between Friday night and Monday. Confidence in timing is very low at this time.

- Moderate coastal flooding in the Upper Keys will expand to the Lower and Middle Keys Sunday evening through early next week, with major coastal flooding possible in the Upper Keys.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

A sprawling high pressure blanketing eastern North America reaches southward across the Gulf of America. As a result, gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes prevail across the island chain this evening. This evening sounding indicated a broad subsidence inversion based around 800 mb. This is despite an amplified mid latitude trough stretching southwestward down the Atlantic Coast and across Florida. The height of the inhibition layer and healthy flow is supporting a swath of showers mostly across the Florida Straits, but have also periodically harassed portions of the Upper Keys. None of the activity has been able to build into thunderstorms. Mild post cold front conditions continue with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and dew points in the upper 60s.

Little change in the synoptic setup is expected overnight for the Keys. Winds should come up a bit further into moderate range as earlier day time heating effects dissipate. Forecast soundings suggest that the inhibition layer will remain, but weaken and potentially elevate closer to 750 mb. This along with the increasing flow will continue to support a chance for showers overnight, particularly in the Middle and Upper Keys. The steady flow and scattered to broken cloud cover should limit radiational cooling. As a result, overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s with dew points remaining in the upper 60s.

MARINE

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

A sprawling surface high over eastern North America will maintain gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period. A Small Craft Caution remains in effect on all Keys waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. With that said, there will be a chance for brief sub VFR conditions due to passing showers in the area, particularly at MTH. Surface winds will generally be light to gentle out of the northeast.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076-077. GM...None.