textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Some smoke from the National Fire will filter in at times through the overnight.

- Cool and dry conditions hang on for one more night, then a gradual return to above normal conditions will begin on Wednesday

- Light to gentle breezes will slowly shift east through the remainder of the week and gradually freshen. - Rain chances will be zero through at least mid week. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

MARINE

Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Seas continue to subside across the coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys. That being said, seas remain elevated across the SW Straits of Florida. It will take a few more hours before seas relax across these waters. Otherwise, high pressure moving into the Southeast U.S. and Florida will promote light to gentle northerly breezes tonight. As the high slides out into the Atlantic, expect winds to gradually clock around to the east and southeast. After moving into the Atlantic, the high will build and expand westward. This will lead to a modest freshening period Wednesday through Friday, peaking Thursday. As one high moves out and another moves in starting Saturday, we will see a brief slackening of breezes while backing to the north and northeast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period. Northerly winds will gradually veer towards the east overnight into Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 430 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Cool conditions continue across the Keys this morning with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s in the Lower Keys to Upper 40s in the eastern Upper Keys. Windy northerlies are adding to the chill. These breezes are being driven by both a strong high over the Mississippi Valley and a Florida land breeze. Very dry and stable post cold front with a strong subsidence inversion based around 915 mb and dew points broadly centered around 40 degrees.

The continental high will drive southeastward and stretch across the Florida Peninsula by this evening. This along with day time heating will result in rapidly diminishing breezes. Expect light north to northeasterly breezes by this afternoon. Cool conditions will continue with highs struggling to push into the mid 60s. Despite the cool temperatures, dew points mixing down into the 30s may result in relative humidity falling below 40%. Stable conditions and dry conditions will keep skies mostly sunny with zero rain chance.

The high across Florida will steadily march eastward into the Atlantic through the remainder of the week. Through this, light breezes will try to veer easterly. However, the recent shot of cold air has chilled Florida Bay waters down close to 60 F. This along with a relatively weak steering flow tonight into Wednesday will likely hold breezes backed northeasterly. This is often a favorable setup for radiational cooling due to the expected mostly clear skies and large dew point depressions. In addition, a modest land breeze should be able to expand southward off of South Florida. Expect a giant spread in overnight lows, ranging from the mid 50s to mid 40s.

At some point this week nearshore waters will warm sufficiently to let winds shift more easterly. This may happen as early as Wednesday night as the western flank of the Atlantic ridge lifts slightly northward into Central Florida allowing for modestly strengthening breezes. Thereafter, as the high moves further out into the Atlantic, winds will trend downwards to a light east to southeasterly breeze. In turn, conditions will gradually moderate, pushing a few degrees above normal.

An upper shortwave trough will swing through a long wave trough established over the eastern United States later in the week. This will help to nudge the lower level ridge axis across Cuba and the Florida Straits and setup a moist confluent conveyor in the eastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula. This will be a slowly evolving weather pattern unfolding through the weekend. For the time being, there has been some run to run uncertainty regarding this feature and any influence on the Keys. Will maintain currently advertised slight rain chances beginning Thursday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 55 74 66 79 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 56 73 67 80 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.