textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-A strong cold front will continue to blast through the Florida Keys this afternoon. This will bring a period of windy conditions for the Florida Keys this afternoon through Friday morning. -Elevated rain chances will continue ahead of the cold frontal passage this afternoon. -In the wake of the front, expect considerably cooler and drier conditions for late week through the weekend.

-Another reinforcing front is expected to move through the area sometime on Sunday or Sunday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 As a cold front continues to blast through the Florida Keys terminals, bouts of showers will continue through around 20z, with MVFR visibilities and even brief IFR possible at times. As the main front pushes through this afternoon, winds will clock around to the northwest to north, frequently gusting to 25 to 30 knots, posing a significant crosswind challenge to the terminals. Winds will slowly slacken after around 03z, but gusts to near 20 knots will continue through around 12z Friday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1057 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a strong cold front will continue to push through the Keys marine zones today. Breezes will become strong, with frequent near gale gusts late this morning through early this evening. High pressure will quickly slide eastward across the Southeast behind the front, supporting rapidly slackening breezes for Friday through Saturday clocking around to the northeast. The next cold front is progged to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters on Sunday or Sunday night.

FORECAST

The aforementioned cold front will be the main theme for today. The strong front will continue to move rapidly southeastward swinging through the Keys later this morning into the early afternoon. Breezes will increase dramatically today with near 30 knots expected across the marine area and 25 to 30 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph, potentially 45 mph along the Island Chain. The strongest gusts will most likely be associated with any showers. Moisture will remain plentiful across the Keys this morning. Therefore, PoPs were further increased today to 70%. All the ingredients are lined up today to support decent coverage of showers and even thunderstorms as the front moves through. We have the instability, the cold front, some upper level support, and moisture. Therefore, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage this morning as it approaches. The most likely timing for the showers and thunderstorms looks to be from 15/13-14z through 15/18-19z. Breezes will initially be out of the southwest to west this morning before shifting to the northwest and peaking this afternoon and evening. Breezes then gradually slacken overnight and shift to the north to northeast by Friday morning. Much drier air will move in behind the front leading to nil rain chances for tonight. However, temperatures and humidity are expected to tumble tonight. Overnight lows are expected to be lower to mid 50s with mid to upper 40s across the Upper Keys with daytime highs Friday only managing to reach the mid 60s.

In the wake of the front, high pressure will slide across the northern Gulf leading to rapidly slackening breezes as the gradient collapses for Friday afternoon. The high continues to move out into the western North Atlantic Friday night through the weekend. This will shift breezes to the northeast to east. The forecast remains dry for Friday, though slightly increasing low level moisture might be enough to touch off a few showers Friday night through Saturday night. Slight chance PoPs have been added to the forecast during this timeframe as a result.

Confidence continues to increase for another front to press through the Keys sometime Sunday/Sunday night. This will result in another shot of cooler air, breezy to windy conditions, and a dip in humidity. In the wake of this front, a rather large high pressure system is expected to move across the eastern United States which is expected to keep the breezes elevated for a few days early next week. Moisture will remain scarce with most of the shower activity, if any, remaining across the Straits. It is not until the middle of next week when the moisture might be able to creep just far enough north to affect the Island Chain. Temperatures and dew points will also slowly moderate through the week.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.