textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets will continue through tonight due to higher high tides. Don't drive through flooded roadways. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.

- Rain and thunder chances will decrease to below normal values today through early next week.

- Breezes will slowly slacken from gentle to moderate to light to gentle across the Keys waters before the start of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 Happy SUNday! A mostly uneventful night for the Florida Keys area with only a few light showers currently being detected on KBYX radar. Across the island chain temperatures are in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s making for another once again muggy morning. Marine locations along the Reef are reporting east to southeasterly winds of near 15 knots. Nighttime Microphysics depicts mostly clear skies. As high pressure in the Atlantic continues to remain in place not much is expected to change from current conditions. Moderate breezes will gradually slacken becoming light to gentle by the beginning of the week as the high loosens its grip. Drier air seen on MIMIC Precipitable water confirms why we have below normal rain chances for the next few days. Mid week, a front will move south stalling across northern Florida and as of now not expecting it to make it down to the Keys. Therefore, rain chances are not expected to be impacted much just at their near normal of 30%. While showers cannot be fully ruled out any day, not expecting any heavy rain events like was experienced a few days ago anytime soon again.

MARINE

Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 A Coastal Flood Statement is in Effect for the Florida Keys island chain. Elsewhere, no watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect. From synopsis, Atlantic high pressure offshore of the southeastern U.S. will remain in place. This feature will maintain moderate east to southeasterly breezes through that will gradually slacken today into early next week. In addition, relatively drier weather conditions are settling in, though isolated to scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms could still occur at times. A cold front is on track to stall across northern Florida before mid-week with the highest rain chances remaining north of the Florida Keys. Precipitation chances will still remain around 20 to 30 percent daily into next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. While shower activity is possible confidence in timing and location leaves mention out of the TAFs for the time being. Near surface winds will be east to southeasterly at near 10 knots through the afternoon.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.