textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain and thunder chances will only be slight (10% to 20%) through the rest of the weekend. - While highs will be seasonably warm in the upper 80s through next week, lows will remain warmer than normal, providing little relief from the heat in the overnight hours.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
The 00z evening sounding is very unstable tonight with a CAPE value measured of 3109 J/kg. Suffice to say, if we had any mechanism to help lift the air at all and diurnal heating, it would be off to the races tonight with thunderstorms. The one potentially inhibiting factor tonight though could be the dry air that was sampled from around 950 mb to 500 mb with plenty of moisture above 500 mb. The PWAT value measured was 2.13 inches which is above the 90th percentile for the date. The wind profile also represents a chaotic regime once again tonight. Based on the above, no changes are anticipated to the ongoing forecast overnight. Looking ahead to tomorrow morning/early afternoon, depending on whether or not we can moisten up the low to mid levels, it could be a potentially active time period. Stay tuned!
MARINE
Issued at 1028 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, weak high pressure across the area will support light to gentle southeast to south breezes over the next few days, becoming light and variable at times. The nebulous pressure pattern will continue through much of early next week, with near normal rain and thunder chances also expected. A weak frontal boundary may stall near the Keys coastal waters by mid week, supporting an uptick in wind speeds as well as rain chances.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026 VFR conditions are mostly expected at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Most of the overnight is expected to remain dry, however, some light rain cannot be ruled out, especially after midnight. There is also the potential for more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday morning into the afternoon, though, the timing and placement remains uncertain. Therefore, VCSH was not included in the TAF. Any showers or storms will be capable of producing MVFR CIGs, gusty winds, and potential lightning. Near surface winds will remain mostly light and variable.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 88 81 89 81 / 20 10 20 10 Marathon 87 81 87 81 / 20 10 20 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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