textproduct: Key West
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Measurable rain chances will remain low through next weekend, at generally 10% or less.
- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, but we may see heat index values above 105F, particularly along the Upper Keys, through Monday.
- A pocket of Saharan Air currently centered in the Straits of Florida will slowly move west across our area starting this afternoon, likely lingering through Wednesday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 18z Tuesday afternoon, with near-nil rain and thunder chances. Near surface winds will remain generally out of the southeast at 8 to 10 knots.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1041 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Available KBYX and KAMX local Doppler radars highlighted the leading edge of a wave of Saharan dust in the eastern Straits of Florida this morning. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms along the leading edge of the dry, dusty air mass have since collapsed with diurnal boundary layer mixing. With ample solar insolation, temperatures are already in the upper 80s at this late morning hour across the Island Chain.
The Saharan dust, combined with light to gentle southeasterlies, will limit additional shower and thunderstorm development for the balance of the first period. The inherited warm, mainly dry, and seasonably muggy short-term forecast is on track, with no changes required for this late morning update package.
MARINE
Issued at 1041 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, broad, weak high pressure stretching from the Gulf Basin, across the Florida Peninsula, and into the central North Atlantic will flux in strength over the next several days. As a result, expect both wind speeds and direction to be primarily mesoscale driven and at times chaotic. By Wednesday, the high will begin to gradually build and allow for a slow freshening of east to southeast breezes.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Key West 90 84 90 84 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 89 84 89 83 / 10 10 10 10
KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None. GM...None.
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