textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft Exercise Caution Headlines remain in effect for the Straits of Florida due to moderate to occasional fresh breezes.

- Very warm and humid conditions over the next few days will lead to bouts of major risk of heat illness in the afternoon hours, with little relief during the overnight periods.

- Models continue to trend towards a drier solution than previous runs for the upcoming weekend. Nonetheless rain chances will hover near normal. - A general 1-3" of rainfall and thunderstorms, with locally higher amounts, remains possible at most island communities Thursday through Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

East to southeast breezes have slackened to generally moderate for all waters with the exception of the Straits of Florida. Moderate to occasional fresh breezes will linger across these waters for the evening before further slackening. High pressure centered near Bermuda will shift southward and flatten over the coming days. This will lead to a more noticeable slackening of winds while becoming more southerly. Moisture riding along the periphery of the high will brush through the Keys late tonight into Thursday with an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage. This plume of moisture then lifts out of the area for the end of the week and into the weekend with low end chances for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 310 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the island terminals this evening. Moisture will increase from southwest to northeast overnight with showers and thunderstorms coverage gradually increasing. Confidence on exact time is low, however, the best chances will be after 06Z and continuing into Thursday morning. Any categorical changes induced by this activity will be handled with future amendments as the situation becomes more clear.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 534 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026 Light scattered showers have been popping up around the coastal waters through the early morning in the Florida Keys. Though some of these showers have briefly crossed over the island chain, not much rainfall has been measured in any location. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s this morning with dew points in the mid 70s. The observation sites at the Reef are reporting winds of near 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Florida Bay, Bay/Gulf side waters, Hawk Channel, and Straits of Florida, in the outer Gulf waters small craft should exercise caution. The Atlantic high that has been driving the elevated winds will weaken sometime today as it drifts further east allowing for the pressure gradient to loosen, at that time Small Craft headlines are expected to come down as those winds slacken. Shower activity for today and tonight will continue to be quick in nature similarly to what we have been experiencing for the last few days.

For the remainder of the week into the weekend, a unsettled weather pattern will move into the area along with moisture surge from the veering winds to the southeast to south as the high retreats further east. This will allow for higher rain chances. Confidence on exact precipitation chances have continued to be a little lower with a lot of guidance disagreeing on them so opted to keep chance showers for the time being until details get more clear and can lock down exact rain chance values. At this time, Friday through Sunday look like the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms for the Florida Keys. Stay tuned for any updates to the forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 80 90 80 90 / 50 40 30 10 Marathon 79 86 79 86 / 50 40 40 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.