textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized ponding of saltwater will remain possible during times of high tide across the Florida Keys as tidal levels trend down through the end of the week.

- The first strong cold front of the season will push through the Keys on Friday, and will bring stronger winds and higher seas to the area. - After a brief lull this weekend, another cold front will bring another round of windy and showery weather will move in early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 A fairly uneventful Veterans Day is in place along the Florida Keys as weak high pressure is still gradually traversing the area. The low level anticyclonic flow is still most obvious on visible satellite when we monitor the cloud field. Most of this lower level cumulus clouds are simply existing, but our KBYX radar has been detecting pockets of showers across the westernmost Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf waters. These showers have likely been triggered by near surface wind convergence as winds round the center of the high. As the high drifts farther eastward, this wind convergence may approach the island chain and a few communities could see a stray light shower later tonight. Its nearly impossible to pinpoint exactly where each little shower will pop up, so well continue to convey a broad slight chance for rain (10% at best). These warm and somewhat muggy conditions will continue through the rest of tonight and most of tomorrow as the last of the high is pushed away.

Over the course of Thursday and Friday, a cold front will dig down through the Gulf and Florida peninsula. Winds will shift drastically from southwest to west and eventually northwesterly as a result. The leading edge of the front will provide some lift, but the extent of shower and thunderstorm coverage will depend on how far south the front can make it. At the time were writing this, the best rain chances look to occur Thursday night at 30%, but this may change a little bit as we get closer to the arrival of the front.

This front isnt expected to stick around for very long, and a brief lull is expected for the first half of the weekend. Guidance continues to highlight a reinforcing backdoor front sometime Sunday evening. Probabilistic guidance suggests this front will bring even windier conditions to the Florida Keys with a 20% to 40% chance for sustained winds greater than 20 mph early next week. Naturally, this forecast will be adjusted in the coming days as the first front works its way through the area, but the door will be open for an extended period of breezy to windy conditions and elevated rain chances.

MARINE

Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. High pressure is gradually being nudged out of the area by troughing to our north, and we will see the environment respond with breezes veering clockwise and slackening over the course tonight and tomorrow morning. As the troughing trails deeper down the Florida peninsula, the gradient will tighten and breezes will begin to freshen. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines and hazards may be required as early as Friday afternoon and evening. Hazardous winds from the first front are not expected to last very long, but higher seas may take more time to subside. Even though winds will briefly slacken during the weekend, a reinforcing front Sunday night and Monday morning will bring hazardous marine conditions again, and we may see an extended period of strong winds and higher seas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with a mix of FEW to SCT skies near FL030. Occasional MVFR CIGs may be reported due to enhanced cloud cover near the Florida Keys, but these conditions will be generally unrepresentative of conditions at both airports. Limited instability will keep any nearby showers shallow and fairly light, so the current TAF package will maintain dry conditions. Initial southeasterly winds near 10 knots will turn southerly and decrease to near 5 knots, occasionally light and variable at times. Crosswind concerns are low due to the low magnitude of the winds.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1980, 22.75" of rain fell as a result of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Jeanne being stalled several hundred miles west of Key West, making it the wettest day ever recorded in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 77 84 74 82 / 10 30 30 20 Marathon 77 84 74 82 / 10 20 30 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.