textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will be the primary weather concern over the next seven days as indices will approach the mid to upper 100s during the afternoons.

- A Saharan Air Layer will linger across the Keys this week, keeping rain and thunder chances slight at best.

- Since we have a new moon as of this morning, tide levels will rise but should remain below Coastal Flood Statement levels at this time. Persistent puddles in the typical low spots during high tide are likely saltwater.

FORECAST

A complex pattern will remain across the Keys for much of the week. In the upper levels, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell will continue to drift westward through the Keys over the coming days. In the low to mid levels, ridging is expected to dominate along with plenty of Sahara dust that is expected to linger over the region for much of the week. Overall, rain and thunder chances are expected to remain quite limited through the week with at least today and tonight keeping near nil rain chances before slight chances creep back into the forecast for middle to latter part of the week. Outside of any showers and thunderstorms, expect temperatures to remain quite warm with daytime highs near 90 degrees with not much overnight relief as lows only dip into the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will remain tropical in the mid to upper 70s leading to heat index values of 105 to 108 degrees. In addition, expect mostly gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes to continue through the week with peaks in the evening and overnight with lulls during the morning and afternoons. There will be one caveat potentially for tonight. Convection across the South Florida mainland may send an outflow boundary southward tonight which may result in a wind surge out of the northeast to east. This is low confidence at this time but the threat is there as a similar pattern to last evening remains across the Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 439 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. There is the potential for an outflow boundary to surge southward off the South Florida mainland this evening which may result in a period of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines for breezes out of the northeast to east. However, this is low confidence. From synopsis, a ridge axis will stretch west across Central and South Florida this week, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes. The wind speeds will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours before decreasing slightly in the morning and afternoon hours. In addition, a large area of Saharan dust will remain in place across the area for several days which will act to limit rain and thunder chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds are expected to remain mostly east to southeast through the period, however, there are some indications for a period of northeast to east breezes this evening. There is the potential for ongoing convection across the mainland to set out a fairly healthy outflow boundary later today into this evening which may bring a period of gusty winds. Right now, this remains low to average confidence but worth a mention.

CLIMATE

On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Key West set back in 2023. Temperature record for Key West date back to 1872. Also, in the same year, the daily record warm low temperature of 86F was recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1951.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 90 84 90 84 / 0 0 10 10 Marathon 90 84 90 84 / 0 0 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.