textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding will continue across the Florida Keys for the next several tidal cycles. Relief from the coastal flooding will slowly begin later this week.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for eastern Hawk Channel and the eastern Straits of Florida through the afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the remaining Florida Keys marine zones. - Fast-moving scattered showers will continue to move mainly across the Upper Keys through tonight. Any of this activity will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1017 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Surface analysis is detecting an increasingly compact area of low pressure located over the Bahamas, with satellite-derived ALPW products detecting a tight moisture gradient across the Florida Keys. The 12z sounding at KEY supported this satellite-derived analysis, with substantial dry air in the 850-700 mb isobaric layer. The 12z sounding at MFL, in contrast, detected decent residual moisture in that layer. Local Doppler radar is surprisingly lackluster in terms of shower coverage in the Upper Keys this morning relative to yesterday, and it is tempting to lower PoPs for the rest of today. However, there are some indications that the aforementioned surface low may try to retrograde westward over the next 24 hours, so we will maintain the inherited measurable rain chances. As breezes continue to slowly slacken, we did elect to trim back the Gale Warnings, now only in effect for the easternmost coastal waters south of the Upper Keys, with Small Craft Advisories in effect elsewhere. The main weather story will continue to be the elevated tides, particularly around the times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect, with the most impactful high tides expected tonight and Wednesday night.

MARINE

Issued at 1017 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026 A Gale Warning remains in effect for the easternmost marine zones south of the Upper Keys, including Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all other marine zones.

From synopsis, sprawling high pressure over the eastern United States will be reinforced by a secondary high north of the Great Lakes region. As these features interact with a persistent low south of the Bahamas, this will support frequent near gale gusts in eastern Hawk Channel and the Straits of Florida. Pulses of low level moisture from the low will also produce elevated shower chances, mainly in the eastern marine zones. The secondary high will slide into the central North Atlantic for the middle to latter part of the work week, supporting slackening northeast to east breezes.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1017 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Although a passing shower cannot be ruled out, especially at MTH, VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Wednesday morning. Near-surface winds will remain out of the north to northeast at 12 to 14 knots, occasionally gusting to 20 to 25 knots. Gusts should slowly become less frequent and a bit lower late in the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 76 85 78 / 30 30 30 20 Marathon 82 76 84 77 / 30 30 30 20

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ076>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031>035- 043-044-053>055-074-075.

Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ042-052-072- 073.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for GMZ042-052-072-073.