textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable conditions will continue over the next couple of days.

- Dew points will climb noticeably into the mid 70s Friday night. - Light and variable breezes will prevail for the next couple of days, with a brief gentle to moderate pickup heading into the weekend.

- Rain chances will remain low through at least Saturday. A wetter pattern is becoming increasingly likely beginning Sunday, although there is low confidence in rainfall amounts at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Weak deep layered ridging remains in control of Keys weather this morning. A surface high is centered just northeast of the Bahamas with an associated ridge stretching westward across south Florida. Meanwhile the Keys are under the descending branch of an upper southern stream trough aligned over the Bahamas and Cuba. While some moistening took place through the mid levels, there is still quite a bit of dry air and a significant subsidence based just above 850 mb. CAPE was limited with a precipitable water of 1.11 inches. Surface moisture has also been limited with dew points near to just below 70. Consequently showers have been nearly nonexistent for much of the past 24 hours.

The weather will remain fairly static over the next couple of days with light and varying breezes persisting. Normal temps expected with highs in the mid 80s, lows in the mid 70s, and dew points around 70. Forecast soundings continue to suggest broad inhibition will remain across the area through this period and keep rain chances nil with mostly clear skies.

The weather will begin transitioning heading into this weekend as a mid latitude trough sweeps through the eastern United States. In response a surface trough/low will deepen as it moves across northern Florida and along the southeast Atlantic coast Friday Night into Saturday. Meanwhile the surface Atlantic ridge will consolidate across Cuba and result in freshening southerly breezes across the Keys. Expect surface dew points to surge upwards, reaching into the mid 70s by Saturday. Temperatures will likely climb slightly above normal with Friday night lows likely struggling to fall into the 70s. Despite the warming and moistening, rain chances will initially remain low due to the still present inhibition.

The previously mentioned trough will move up the mid Atlantic Coast on Saturday while the surface ridge retreats eastward into the Atlantic. This will leave the Keys in a nebulous pressure field, weakening breezes and lingering warm humid conditions. Meanwhile a southern stream shortwave will swing through the Gulf and Florida on Sunday into Sunday night. Broad deep layered troughing will just reach down to our latitude and set up increasingly moist and confluent flow across the southeastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula. While guidance suggests the best setup will be just to our north, it is close enough to bear watching. For now, will advertise mid to high chance for showers and thunderstorms through this period.

Rain chances will taper back through the first half of the week as the mid latitude trough finally lifts out, replaced by building deep layered ridging. The pressure field will remain uninteresting, holding a stagnant airmass. Expect dew points to remain in the mid 70s for at least a few more days with temperatures near to slightly above normal.

MARINE

Issued at 1248 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A surface high centered just north of the Central Bahamas extends a weak ridge westward across South Florida. This is resulting in light and variable breezes across Keys waters this morning. This will likely persist through tomorrow. Things will change Friday night as the western flank of the ridge consolidate across the Central Bahamas and Cuba. Meanwhile, weak troughing will deepen as it migrates northeastward across northern Florida. Consequently, moderate southeasterlies will build in by late Friday Night. This surge will be short lived as the trough to our north will consolidate off the Atlantic coast and continue moving away while the surface ridge retreats into the Atlantic. This will leave the Keys in a nebulous pressure field and return Keys waters to light and variable breezes. Shower and thunder potential is expected to creep in this weekend, and increase significantly early next week, in association with a passing mid latitude trough and much higher deep layered moisture.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be light and variable.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.