textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical Depression Two is located across the northeastern Gulf on which the National Hurricane Center continues to issue advisories. This system poses no threat to the Florida Keys.

- Gentle to moderate breezes will continue to peak and lull through the week. The exception is the SE Gulf where moderate to fresh breezes will slacken to gentle to moderate today.

- Heat indices may approach 108 to 110 degrees each afternoon for some Florida Keys island communities.

- Saharan Air Layer plumes will transit the area through at least mid week, limiting rain and thunder chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 A mostly uneventful morning for the Florida Keys. A few showers have moved through the western Gulf waters but none with any lightning or lasting very long. Besides that KBYX has remained quiet. GOES-19 Visible Satelitte depicts mostly sunny skies for the area making for a nice hot day. Temperatures are nearing 90 for most of the island chain with dewpoints creeping into the upper 70s. Along the Reef winds are southerly at 10 to 15 knots. As the only show in town is the Tropical Depression that is not expected to impact our area at all, not too much is going to change here for the forecast. Breezes will continue to slacken in the afternoon and start to freshen overnight. With temperatures nearing 90 and overnight lows in the 80s not much relief from the heat is possible so make sure to stay hydrated!

FORECAST

Tropical Depression Two will continue to try and steal the show for the next few days as it only slowly traverses across the North Gulf Coast. However, this system poses no risk to the Florida Keys. With that said, the western periphery of an Atlantic ridge will continue to be the dominant feature for the Keys sensible weather. Overall, slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through much of the week as moisture undulations move through the region. Outside of the slight rain chances, seasonably to slightly above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week. Daytime highs will be near 90 degrees and overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s. Dew points will continue to be tropical and steamy resulting in heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees. Make sure to continue to take breaks and stay hydrated! Peaking and lulling gentle to moderate southeast to south breezes are expected through mid week before shifting more to the east to southeast for late week and into the weekend.

One caveat is guidance is beginning to show signs of another Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell moving swiftly westward to west-southwestward for mid to late week. Right now it looks to cross the Bahamas sometime Wednesday night and then Cuba around Thursday before continuing to move towards the Yucatan. All this means is that there may be a uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity around this time. Right now, much of this is expected to remain south of the Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, At 8:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Depression Two was centered over the northeastern Gulf of America, and is expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend to the Florida Peninsula for the next several days. Moderate breezes, especially across the SE Gulf will slacken to gentle to moderate this afternoon. Thereafter, breezes will continue to peak overnight and lull during the day through Thursday.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Southerly winds will shift to the southeast to south later this afternoon. Not much chance of rain is expected through tonight therefore no mention of VCSH at either terminal.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.