textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler, drier, and windy conditions will persist through the overnight and into Tuesday. Winds will significantly decrease during the morning hours of Tuesday.

- Rain chances will be zero through at least mid week. - A moderate drought continues for the Lower and Middle Keys. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1035 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 Windy conditions continue for the Florida Keys and its surrounding waters this evening. Fresh to strong northwest to northerly breezes prevail across our offshore observation stations both along the Reef and in the Bayside/Gulfside waters. The easterly portions of our CWA that were notably in the lee of mainland Florida and experiencing a lull in winds this afternoon have now surged back up to match the rest of our area. KBYX radar is clear of precipitable echoes as it has been most of the day. Meanwhile GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery depicts a shallow field of stratocumulus brushing over the Lower Keys while wisps of smoke waft over and away from the Upper Keys from a large wildfire on southwest mainland Florida. Current temperatures are mainly in the upper 50s with mid 50s noted over the Upper Keys. When paired with dewpoints broadly in the 40s, a cool and dry night is certainly underway.

Cooler temperatures from today will get even cooler by tomorrow morning as we enter night two post cold front. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will continue to supply cool, modified continental air to our area resulting in low temperatures near 50F across most of the island chain, with exception to the Upper Keys where lows are expected to fall into the upper 40s. Breezes may experience a bit of a surge tonight with drainage from mainland, but wind chill values look to bottom out in the mid 30s in the Upper Keys at the lowest. Following a cold morning tomorrow, breezes will slacken in the afternoon as high pressure reestablishes itself across the Florida Peninsula. This will set up a typical pattern of east to southeasterly breezes as the high stretches out into the western North Atlantic in the back half the week. Some returning moisture in the lower to mid levels will allow for slight chance PoPs to return to the forecast and extend through the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 1035 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, fresh to strong northerly breezes will continue across all of the Florida Keys coastal waters tonight into early Tuesday. Winds will slacken considerably starting Tuesday and continue through mid week as they clock northeast then east to southeast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH tonight. Near surface winds will start out of the northwest to north at 15 to 20 knots with frequent gusts to near 25 knots before veering to just east of north by tomorrow morning. Crosswind magnitudes of 20 to 25 knots will continue into tomorrow morning before winds start to slacken.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 53 63 57 72 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 51 60 57 72 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.