textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Cooler, drier, and less humid conditions for today. Daytime highs will struggle to get out of the mid 60s across most of the Keys.

-A brief lull in breezes will prevail through the afternoon and early evening, but another push of breezy to windy conditions will return tonight.

-An extensive period of drier air is in place, and meaningful chances for rainfall aren't expected until the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1031 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 While visitors to the Florida Keys may disagree, it has been a relatively chilly morning across the area as current temperatures are mostly in the lower to mid 60s across the island chain! The only exception is in Key West where we are seeing temperatures hovering around 60F. Northerly breezes, which are inherently a "colder" breeze, have been sustained at 15 to 20 mph with frequent gusts between 20 and 25 mph. COmbining these temps and these breezes will have any local reaching for a heavy sweatshirt and swapping out their usual flip flops for close-toed shoes! On satellite, the Upper and Middle clears are virtually clear overhead, whereas the Lower Keys are dealing with a little bit of scattered cloud cover from this morning. Based on the clearing trend that is approaching the Lower Keys, things should clear up within the next few hours. The good news is that our KBYX radar is void of rainfall. There are some spotty returns over the distant Florida Straits, but it looks like this is just cloud cover being picked up by the radar.

An adjustment has been made to the morning forecast package related to our Small Craft Advisory. While the forecast still supports a lull in breezes during the afternoon and early evening, we are expecting a nocturnal push of fresh to occasionally strong breezes by later tonight. Considering the narrow window of below- advisory winds and the swift return of the stronger winds, we have opted to extend the time of the Small Craft Advisory to remain in effect through today and tonight, as well as into tomorrow morning. Don't let the lull this afternoon fool you into thinking we are out of the woods, yet!

FORECAST

Issued at 450 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 In the wake of yesterdays front, windy conditions will continue this morning along with a return to much cooler, drier, and less humid conditions. Today will remain rather cool with daytime highs struggling to get out of the lower to mid 60s. Breezes will substantially slacken as we head into the afternoon hours due to Florida warming up and the gradient relaxing slightly. Therefore, don't be surprised that winds are much weaker this afternoon. The gradient will re- strengthen late this evening and overnight leading to freshening breezes once again.

An expansive and much stronger high pressure system of Canadian origin will take the place of the previous high mentioned in the discussion section above. This high will slowly traverse across the eastern United States through mid week leading to a healthy pressure gradient re-strenghtening across the area. This will keep the breezes elevated with breezy to windy conditions all but certain for overnight through at least Wednesday night. Moisture will remain scarce with most of the shower activity, if any, remaining across the Straits, at least initially. Once we approach mid week, the moisture is expected to creep northward bringing slight chances back into the forecast along the Island Chain. Moisture becomes deeper for Wednesday night through Thursday night keeping chances (30%) of showers in the forecast. Temperatures and dew points will also slowly moderate through the week. Expect temperatures to be back to slightly above normal to above normal by late in the week and into next weekend.

Latest numerical and statistical guidance is hinting at another front late week into next weekend. Latest indications are for this one to stall across the Keys. At most, a wind shift change may occur with barely any change to the dew points. In addition, latest guidance suggests the parade of fronts continuing with another one for potentially early next week. This one looks to be the stronger of the two if it came to fruition. Stay tuned and Happy Winter!

MARINE

Issued at 1031 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 Residual fresh to strong northerly breezes from this morning will diminish this afternoon as the gradient subtly weakens. However, this lull will be short lived as there will be a reinforcing push of strong winds tonight. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has been extended through this afternoon and tonight. An expansive high pressure system will move across the eastern United States over the next several days leading to a strengthening pressure gradient. This will continue to promote bouts of fresh to strong breezes throughout the work week. This high will move out into the western North Atlantic mid- late week while weakening. This will promote slackening breezes as a result.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the 15Z TAF period, but infrequent and short lived observations of MVFR CIGs are possible into the afternoon at EYW due to a cloud deck that is gradually clearing out. Elevated northerly winds near 15 knots with gusts near 20 knots will briefly lull between 20Z and 02Z, but another push of surface winds near 20 knots will occur after 02Z. Crosswind concerns will be moderate, particularly for more sensitive aircraft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 64 59 72 65 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 63 59 71 65 / 0 0 0 0

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.