textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-A strong cold front will blast through the Keys on Thursday. This will bring a period of windy conditions for the Florida Keys beginning Thursday morning, then continuing through Friday morning. -Elevated rain chances will continue through Thursday morning ahead of the passage of the cold front. There is also the potential for slight chance of thunder through Thursday morning. -In the wake of the front, expect considerably cooler and drier conditions for late week through the weekend.

-Another reinforcing front is expected to move through the area sometime on Sunday or Sunday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Although a few passing showers cannot be ruled out through around 09z Thursday morning, VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH. Thereafter, a strong cold front will approach the Island Chain, pushing through west to east. Wind gusts associated with possible squalls in the initial frontal push may be higher than the currently advertised TAF values. After 12z, winds will clock around to the northwest to north, occasionally gusting to near 30 knots, supporting significant crosswind challenges at the terminals Thursday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1038 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Small Craft Advisories likely will be required for all Florida Keys marine zones Thursday. For the SE Gulf, Small Craft Advisories may need to be issued for as early as late tonight. From synopsis, generally light and variable breezes will slowly become west to northwest and freshen for this evening and tonight. A strong cold front will push through the Keys marine zones on Thursday. Breezes will become strong, with frequent near gale gusts on Thursday. High pressure will quickly slide eastward across the Southeast behind the front, supporting rapidly slackening breezes for Friday through Saturday clocking around to the northeast. The next cold front is progged to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters on Sunday.

FORECAST

The aforementioned trough will continue to slowly progress eastward through the area today. This will result in variable breezes slowly freshening and becoming west to northwesterly by tonight. Moisture will continue to slowly increase over the next few forecast periods leading to chance PoPs for today and tonight. Plentiful moisture, instability, and the cold front combined with some upper level support will lead to likely PoPs on Thursday. This was bumped from the previous 40% to 60% to account for this. In addition, thunder remains in the forecast for today through Thursday. The most likely area to see thunder will remain across the marine zones, though we cannot rule out a storm or two affecting the Island Chain.

The strong cold front arrives on Thursday which will usher in Florida winter for a couple days. Temperatures and humidity are expected to tumble Thursday night. Overnight lows are expected to be lower to mid 50s with mid to upper 40s across the Upper Keys for Thursday night with daytime highs Friday only managing to reach the mid 60s. Accompanying the frontal passage, expect a rapid surge in breezes across all the Florida Keys with breezy, becoming windy conditions anticipated along the Island Chain. For the marine area, the potential exists for a window of near gale breezes. The peak of the wind surge remains Thursday afternoon and evening before gradually slackening thereafter. Breezes will initially be westerly before shifting to the northwest to north overnight and then north to northeast by Friday morning. Breezes rapidly slacken by Friday afternoon as the gradient collapses. The cold front will push out any residual moisture resulting in a dry forecast from Thursday night through the extended. The exception being Saturday night when slight chances are advertised again as the next front approaches.

Confidence continues to increase for another reinforcing front to press through the Keys sometime Sunday/Sunday night. This will result in another shot of cooler air, breezy to windy conditions, and a dip in humidity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 77 69 73 55 / 30 40 60 10 Marathon 79 69 74 52 / 40 40 60 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.