textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled conditions will continue today as showers and thunderstorms continue to follow an on-and-off pattern across the area.

- After today, rain and thunder chances will come down slightly, but will still be around 20% as we head into the weekend. - Rainfall totals today through Sunday will be a general 1-3", with locally higher amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1022 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 The 12z sounding at KEY sampled a pocket of dry air in the 925-825 isobaric layer, although also a moist boundary, characterized by generally steep low level lapse rates and a veering wind profile. KBYX radar continues to detect the focus of convection in the easternmost island communities east of Key Largo, where radar estimates are highlighting up to 2-4" of rainfall have fallen since the early morning hours. Outside of the rain-cooled locations, temperatures are quickly rising into the mid to upper 80s across the Lower and Middle Keys.

For the balance of today, a challenging forecast continues. There remains a relatively significant moisture gradient from the eastern Gulf to the Bahamas, with the Florida Keys sandwiched between. With the lack of any substantial low-level steering flow and limited upper-level support for divergence, most redeveloping convection will originate from residual boundary conditions. Current reasoning suggests convection should taper off over the next several hours in the vicinity of the Upper Keys, with additional convection being the focus over portions of the Lower and Middle Keys in the early to mid afternoon hours. Have retained the chance level rain and thunder weather grids for now, although we will monitor radar trends. No changes proposed.

MARINE

Issued at 1022 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, breezes will continue to slacken and veer southeasterly to southerly this afternoon as a surface high centered near Bermuda shifts southward. Moisture will remain elevated across the area. Moisture will gradually decrease beginning later tonight, and relatively drier conditions will return as we head into the weekend. This will limit but not eliminate the potential for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 While VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through 12z Friday morning, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon and this evening. Have elected to just include a window of VCSH for now, with impacts to visibilities and ceilings left to later TAF amendments, including possible TEMPO groups.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.