textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

-Isolated showers expected to remain off the island chain and in the Straits of Florida today. -Temperatures will be seasonably warm through the work week, with highs in the mid to upper 70s, and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

-Confidence is increasing for a potentially strong frontal passage around the end of the weekend or early next work week.

MORNING UPDATE

Issued at 1133 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Temperatures are warming after a moist start to the day in the Florida Keys. Nearly saturated surface conditions this morning allowed for a hearty plastering of dew across applicable material making for a sticky and perhaps obstructed early drive to work. Currently, temperatures have warmed several degrees away from the dew points with current values in the lower to mid 70s versus dew points in the upper 60s. Mostly clear conditions persist over the Keys with GOES-19 visible imagery only noting some high cloud debris over the western Upper Keys from shallow, isolated showers in the eastern Straits of Florida.

Not too much change expected in the short term forecast today. The surface ridge orphaned over South Florida will maintain light to gentle breezes out of the northeast to east as well as allow for warmer temperatures today. Despite a good deal of moisture in the lower levels, this morning's KKEY sounding notes a large mass of dry air above the inversion around 850 mb leading to essentially near nil PoPs for the island chain. The ridge will continue trudging northeast tonight resulting in a slight freshening and veering of winds overnight. Guidance suggests this will bring some mid level moisture into our area resulting in dime PoPs being reintroduced tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 407 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

A mostly quiet overnight across the Florida Keys as we remain under the effects of a low level ridge. Some low level moisture skirting along the periphery of this ridge, plus convergence has allowed for some showers to develop across the Straits of Florida. A narrow finger of showers has managed to move into the Upper Keys at times. Otherwise, winds have been light and variable, which has allowed for temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 60s. Across the interior of the larger islands, temperatures have fallen even further, down into the lower 60s.

For today, the Keys will sit underneath the western edge of the low level ridge. This will keep the pressure gradient weak and allow for a thermal trough to develop across the mainland throughout the day. This will keep our winds light from the northeast through the day but then weakly surge tonight. By Thursday a mid-upper level ridge will move eastward across the Gulf Basin and sharpen in advance of a developing upper level trough moving into the Central Plains.

As it moves eastward it will reinforce our low level ridge and tighten the pressure gradient. This in turn will lead to a gradual freshening and shifting of winds to the east through the end of the week and into the weekend. Strongest winds will reside across the Straits of Florida, where moderate to fresh breezes will be possible. Meanwhile, the upper level trough will move eastward with an attendent surface feature initially strengthening and lifting northeast into the Great Lake region. This surface low will undergo occlusion late Saturday into Sunday with a trailing cold front that will extend form the Northeast U.S. southwestward into the Gulf.

This is where uncertainty still remains. Due to the surface low occluding and the upper level feature staying well to our north, there remains some unknowns with regards to how strong the front will be and when will it arrive. Current timing has it at late Sunday or early Monday morning. The strength of said front is about the same or slightly weaker (depending on model solution). For now, made little adjustments to this next frontal passage.

Prior to its arrival, temperatures will continue to be above normal with near nil rain chances. As the ridge shifts eastward in response to the trough this weekend, rain chances will gradually click up as low level moisture gets slightly better. Chances still look to be best as the front moves through. Thereafter, questions remain as to how much moisture will remain behind the front and if the front will linger across the Keys.

MARINE

Issued at 407 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Light to gentle and at times variable breezes will become northeast this morning. There is a small window where breezes may weakly surge as they come off the mainland this morning. That being said, breezes look to stay generally around gentle. Breezes will have a better chance at surging tonight with gentle to moderate breezes expected. Thereafter, as the pressure gradient tightens, expect gentle to moderate breezes with the exception of moderate to occasionally fresh across the Straits of Florida. This will persist through the end of the week and into the weekend. Still anticipating a front to move through sometime late Sunday into early Monday. Although the strength of the front remains questionable, at least fresh breezes are expected in the wake. Mariners are encouraged to check back for future updates.

AVIATION

(15Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Near surface winds will be generally out of the northeast at 4 to 9 knots, gradually veering to the northeast to east by later this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 79 68 80 71 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 79 70 80 71 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.