textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to grow in coverage overnight tonight, lasting through Tuesday night.

- Bouts of wet weather will continue through at least Wednesday or Wednesday night, with less confidence in rainfall coverage for Thursday.

- Near the end of the week, breezy to possibly windy conditions may return, lasting through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 The several days of generally quiet weather look to be coming to a rather rapid end on this late Monday evening. Surface analysis places a stationary front draped across central Florida, where scattered slow-moving showers and thunderstorms have supported high rainfall totals in areas. Aloft, CIMSS satellite- derived upper-level divergence fields highlight an area of strong divergent flow (forced large-scale ascent) centered over the central Gulf propagating eastward towards the Florida Peninsula associated with a modestly amplifying shortwave trough.

Overnight, existing convection over the South Florida Mainland will likely trigger cold cool boundaries that may progress southwestward to the Keys marine zones. The aforementioned shortwave feature will support large-scale ascent and further convective development, including deeper possible stronger thunderstorms. The 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled an environment with ample convective instability to be utilized, along with very limited inhibition. Convection should develop sometime around or just after midnight, then splinter down towards the Keys Island Chain. Most convective allowing model (CAM) guidance supports this general evolution. The forecast calls for mid- level chance rain and thunderstorm probabilities, with temperatures dropping to near 70F in the rain- cooled communities. Any rainfall will assist with drought relief, as most of the Florida Keys remain in moderate drought levels.

MARINE

Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Light to gentle easterly breezes will become variable at times during the overnight hours tonight, as a frontal boundary stalls north of the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight, lasting through at least Wednesday. Breezes will freshen late in the week through the weekend, although confidence in the timing of onset of the freshened breezes remains quite low at this time due to the uncertainty in the evolution of the frontal boundary.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 930 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near the terminals overnight. Confidence in timing of onset and evolution warrants only inclusion of VCSH mention at this time, although this will be reevaluated for the 06z TAF routine issuance. Near- surface winds out of the east will become light and variable, with boundaries from any developing storms resulting in chaotic wind gusts. These impacts will be left to possible TEMPOs in the TAFs. Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to wane in the vicinity of the terminals by late morning or early evening, before additional storms may develop late in the TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 83 72 81 69 / 20 30 40 40 Marathon 82 72 80 70 / 20 40 50 50

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.