textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Major coastal flooding will continue over portions of the Upper Keys. Moderate coastal flooding in the Lower and Middle Keys may reach major levels as early as tomorrow night.

- A Gale Warning is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters through Tuesday morning. - Fast-moving scattered showers will continue to move through the Keys through Tuesday night. Any of this activity will be capable of producing stronger wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 954 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026 Radar QPE tells the story for this evening which has been characterized by near continuous fast moving showers in the eastern Straits while to the west there is little to no cloud cover and certainly no precip. This activity is streaming towards the southwest among persistent northeasterly low-level flow within a region of higher moisture content on the western periphery of a cutoff low over the Bahamas. Here in Key West, the 00Z KKEY RAOB sampled a continued presence of significant dry air aloft, particularly above ~640mb, while a measured PWAT of 1.4" is mostly representative of moisture in the lower-levels. Low-level flow has strengthened again this evening with around 25 kt mean winds up to 10kft, and nearly all marine observation sites surrounding the Keys are currently reporting persistent 20-30 knot gusts, slightly higher in the eastern Straits. This as a result of enhanced flow in between the inverted surface trough over the Bahamas/eastern Caribbean and a sprawling region of strong high pressure encompassing the eastern CONUS. Guidance suggests the center of the low will shift slightly to the west tonight which should allow for showers to expand further west through tomorrow. Either way, higher chances will remain focused across our eastern marine zones with decreasing chances with western extent.

The bigger story at the moment is the ongoing high tide with nearly all tide stations along the Keys reporting the highest peak as of this King Tide event. Based on trends, the Lower to Middle Keys will peak just below or near Coastal Flood Warning criteria over the next hour or two. Projections indicate a higher peak will occur tomorrow night, so chances of reaching warning criteria for the entirety of the Florida Keys appear to be increasing. Residents should take the necessary precautions for the protection of property.

MARINE

Issued at 954 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026 Winds have begun to freshen this evening. Frequent gusts will approach near gale levels overnight.

From synopsis, sprawling high pressure over the eastern United States will be reinforced by a secondary high north of the Dakotas. As these features interact with a persistent low south of the Bahamas, this will sustain frequent near gale gusts through Tuesday morning, especially across the Straits of Florida, extreme eastern Hawk Channel, and the SE Gulf waters. In addition, pulses of low level moisture will support elevated shower chances, mainly in the eastern marine zones. The secondary high will slide into the central North Atlantic for the middle to latter part of the work week, supporting slackening northeast to east breezes.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at both TAF sites through this period. SHRA will be in the vicinity of MTH, but is expected to remain just east of the terminal closer to a surface low over the Bahamas. Low-level winds will remain elevated due to a strong pressure gradient with N/NE sfc winds of 10-15 kts and gusts of 20-25 kts. Occasional stronger gusts may occur near passing showers.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 73 82 74 83 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 73 81 74 83 / 40 40 40 30

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ077-078.

GM...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ031>035-042>044- 052>055-072>075.