textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Small craft should exercise caution until winds decrease across the western Hawk Channel, Florida Straits, and Southeast Gulf waters.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances will remain elevated, and will peak during the overnight hours into early Friday morning.

- Dry conditions quickly return for Friday and continue through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1051 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

There was a brief flare-up of activity this afternoon and into the early evening as showers developed in the east-southeast flow. These showers moved from the Straits of Florida into the far southeastern Gulf waters, briefly intensified into isolated thunderstorms, then petered out. Since then we have been watching the potent shortwave make progress across the Gulf Basin. The convection associated with this feature has reached a minimum and has greatest shrunk in coverage. Surface winds remain east to southeast which is helping to keep temperatures currently in the mid to upper 70s. Surprisingly, dewpoints are on the more comfortable side, ranging from 50s in the Upper Keys, to lower 60s elsewhere across the island chain.

The aforementioned shortwave is centered just outside of AOR to the west of the Dry Tortugas. This feature still has to pivot through overnight. There's still a decent amount of energy and moisture balled up with this feature in combination that it will be moving through peak nocturnal instability. Therefore, have not given up on our rain chances just yet. Otherwise, as a high pressure continues to slowly pull away from the Keys, winds will continue their general downward trend overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1051 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Generally moderate east to southeast breezes prevail across the waters east of the Seven Mile Bridge. West of the bridge, we continue to see moderate to occasional fresh breezes. Therefore, have continued Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for the westernmost Hawk, western Straits, and the southeast Gulf waters for at least a portion of the overnight. Expecting a gradual slackening of breezes overnight and should see gentle to moderate breezes by dawn across all waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection that may develop and move through. Otherwise, easterly winds will gradually be slackening through the overnight.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.