textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Measurable rain chances will remain low through the weekend, only up to 10% for each forecast period.

- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, but we may see heat index values above 105F, particularly along the Upper Keys, through Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Some light shower are possible at either terminal but confidence on timing and strength leaves mention of VCSH out of the TAFs. Near surface winds will be light and variable though the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1137 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a broad, weak high pressure currently extending from the central North Atlantic and across the Gulf Basin will fracture into two cells. This will lead to a weakening pressure field across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters. As a result, expect light and variable winds at times starting this afternoon and continuing through Sunday night. Thereafter, the two high pressure cells will merge and briefly build, allowing breezes to freshen slightly Monday and Monday night. The high is then expected to weaken again with lighter breezes returning Tuesday.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

We had quite a bit more excitement in the late evening and early hour of the overnight as convection spilled off the Mainland and across the waters north of the island chain. Unfortunately, none of the precipitation made it to the Keys themselves. Given that we were under a weakened pressure field, the mesoscale forces took charge and we briefly saw a surge of northeasterlies. This was very short lived and the winds have already clocked back around from the southeast. The northeast winds we saw were too brief to even nudge our temperatures down and Key West is on track to tie another warm low temperature. We did actually see dew points fall a few points and briefly dipped to the mid 70s.

The only changes in the last 24 hours is that a broad ridge the lies from the central North Atlantic to the Gulf Basin is fracturing into two smaller cells. This will lead to winds gradually becoming light and variable by this afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday night. The ridge will consolidate Monday and briefly strengthen allowing for winds to increase Monday and Monday night. However, as mentioned it will be short lived and the ridge will weaken again with winds coming back down.

Meanwhile, moisture will continue to be incredibly limited to the boundary layer with drier air and deep layer subsidence above this. This will keep rain chances at 10 percent or less through the weekend and into Monday. As the ridge consolidates on Monday, we could see pockets of slightly better moisture pivot in at times. With that being said, chances will remain slight (10 to 20 percent) at best next week. Despite no air mass changes occurring through the forecast period, dew points may come a few degrees next week.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...None.