textproduct: Key West

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy to windy conditions will continue, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for all Keys coastal waters.

- Winds will gradually decrease late tonight through Friday.

- A return to drier conditions expected this afternoon through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 940 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 GOES-19 infrared satellite imagery suggests the stubborn stationary boundary responsible for the cloudy, cool, and dreary conditions over the past several days has finally drifted southward, now extending from central Cuba northeastward to the eastern Bahamas. The 12z morning sounding at KEY highlighted residual boundary layer moisture, but as dry air depicted in satellite-derived total precipitable water product continues to advect southward, low-level moisture will quickly erode over the next several hours, with near-nil rain chances expected thereafter for the foreseeable future. Outside of removing thunder from the Straits of Florida due to the negative moisture advection, no changes proposed for this late morning update package.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 534 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal waters and the current Reef observations support that recording near 20 knots. While showers are possible throughout today, models are suggesting a majority of the activity will remain in the Straits.

High pressure has built in behind the recent cold front passage earlier in the week. This has resulted in fresh to occasionally strong breezes across the coastal waters. These fresh to strong breezes will start to slacken overnight into Friday as the high starts to lose it's grip. As the weekend unfolds, rain chances will decrease with only a slight chance expected through early next week. Temperatures will start to gradually warm back up from our brief cool temperatures, though the dew points will remain near 60 making for a pleasant few upcoming days!

MARINE

Issued at 940 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys marine zones. From synopsis, high pressure building in behind the recent frontal passage will maintain fresh to occasionally strong breezes through tonight. Breezes will slacken appreciably beginning Friday, with light to gentle breezes expected for the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 940 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through 12z Friday morning, with only SCT020 CIGs at times. Near-surface winds will remain out of the north to northeast at 10 to 12 knots, frequently gusting to near 20 knots through at least the early evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Key West 74 66 76 66 / 20 10 10 0 Marathon 74 66 74 65 / 10 10 10 10

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075.