textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures will be near normal through the week as humidity increases.

- Chances for shower and storms persist through the upcoming weekend, mainly during each afternoon and evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 1245 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a touch up to the PoPs per current radar and CAMs guidance through the night. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 925 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025

01Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure just off to the east of the state. This is doing little to prevent the diurnal cycle of convection from dominating the weather for our area. As such the bulk of the activity is on the way out with some lingering cells still down near the Virginia border. Currently temperatures are running in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Meanwhile, amid light winds away from any convection, dewpoints are generally in the sticky low 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune the PoPs through the rest of the night per the latest radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 425 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025

The long period is expected to begin with an upper level ridging centered in the western Atlantic near Bermuda with a trough off the southeast U.S. coast, troughing extending from Quebec across the eastern Great Lakes to the Lower oH Valley to the Arklatex region, with another upper level ridge centered near the CA and Mexican border and extending from the southwest Conus into the Pacific. At that point, a shortwave trough is expected to be in the MN to IA vicinity with a stronger shortwave extending from an upper low in northern Canada to the interior Northwest/northern Rockies. At the surface, an area of low pressure should initially be over the eastern Great Lakes vicinity with a frontal zone east to off the New England/Northeast U.S. coast with the trailing cold front toward the OH Valley region, but likely north of the OH River and then west to the mid MS valley and portions of the Central to northern Plains/Dakotas. Another sfc low centered in the Manitoba vicinity should be in place ahead of the troughing in western Canada.

For Thursday to Friday night, the axis of troughing at 500 mb should shift north and northeast of the Lower OH Valley and eastern KY from Thursday to Thursday night as upper troughing moves toward the Maritimes and northeast. The next upstream shortwave may move from the upper MS Valley vicinity to the Great Lakes and generally pass north of eastern KY on Friday with generally rising heights at 500 mb progged across eastern KY at that point. Further west and southwest, upper level ridging should encompass much of the western Conus and become centered a bit further west off the CA to Baja coast. Meanwhile through initially from central Canada to the Northwest Conus should move east to the Hudson Bay to western Ontario region to portions of the Northern and Central Plains to upper MS Valley. As this occurs the boundary initially north and northwest of eastern KY should sag a bit south into the Mid Atlantic states to portions of the OH Valley though likely remaining north of the OH River through Thursday into Friday. Though as troughing works across portions of Canada and toward parts of the Northern Plains and Central Conus that boundary should lift north and northeast of eastern KY as a warm front with a sfc low organizing in the Plains and tracking toward the Upper MS Valley/western Great Lakes with the trailing frontal zone extending to the mid MS Valley to Southern Plains at that point. With the rising heights from the Southeast and into parts of the Appalachians during this timeframe, a sfc ridge of high pressure is anticipated to build from the northeast Gulf to the Southeast and Southern Appalachians during this timeframe. With the rising height trend at 500 mb from Thursday to Friday, Friday should be the warmer of the two days. The initial trough/shortwave crossing the region should help to fire largely diurnally driven convection for Thursday while the next trough passing generally north with the frontal zone in the vicinity should lead to some additional at least scattered convection on Friday also likely peaking during the afternoon and evening.

Saturday to Sunday night, upper troughing is progged to move east across Ontario to Quebec, the Great Lakes and OH Valley to the Northeast to Mid Atlantic with upper ridging building into the Southeast as the weekend progresses and remains in place from the eastern Pacific to the western Conus. Additional troughing in between the ridging is generally expected to develop from the Central to southern Plains Sunday to Sunday night. At the surface, low pressure should trek across the Northern Great Lakes to Ontario and Quebec while the weakening trailing cold front moves to the Central to eastern Great Lakes and the OH Valley region and becomes diffuse by the end of the weekend. Additional rounds of convection are anticipated across eastern KY during this timeframe as well. There is a general consensus of a slight max in convective probabilistic guidance from the GEFS and ENS for Saturday across eastern KY. However, shear is expected to remain limited this weekend as it will be this week and into early next week and thereby limiting the potential for any organized stronger convection. Highs over the weekend should be near normal with a general peak in convection anticipated each afternoon and evening though with the trough moving into and across the area, some convection cannot be ruled out on Saturday night and into late Sunday evening or Sunday night.

During the Monday to Tuesday timeframe, guidance has rising heights 500 mb heights from the Southeast into the OH Valley, TN Valley, and portions of the Appalachians while the axis of weak troughing between that ridging and ridging from the Southwest Conus to the eastern Pacific is over portions of the Plains/Central Conus. This upper ridging with a ridge of sfc high pressure from the northeast Gulf across the Southeast to the mid Atlantic should result in a warming trend with more in the way of capping compared to earlier in the long term period. The result should be near or below average mainly diurnally driven pops for mid July with high temperatures trending above normal by Tuesday to near or in excess of the 90 degree mark for many locales.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025

Look for the convection to die out completely over the next couple of hours. Fog formation will occur in the typical valley locales tonight and affect any terminals where shower activity was more prominent Tuesday afternoon and evening. The fog will clear out by 13Z with a renewed chance for showers and storms that afternoon, for most sites. In any storm there is the potential for briefly much reduced aviation conditions. Winds will generally be under 10 kts through the period, except locally stronger and erratic near thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.