textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier conditions take hold after this evening, with most locations remaining dry through the end of the work week. - Above normal temperatures can be expected through Friday, with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 628 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026

The models agree on an amplified and rather stagnant pattern to dominate over the majority of the CONUS through most of the extended portion of the forecast. A stout upper high starts out centered over the Midwest. Ridging will be sprawled through the northern/central Plains to west northwest of the center, while east southeastern extent covers through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and over the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, a deep upper low will be pinwheeling over northern Quebec, with tight cyclonic flow fanned southward through the Saint Lawrence River Valley and into northern New England. This ridge will generally dominate across the Ohio Valley through at least Friday, before breaking down this weekend, as broader cyclonic flow eventually infiltrates from the north with time. Details on the evolution and transition of the pattern shift across our region remain low confidence, with plenty of model spread.

Sensible weather will feature a return to seasonably hot temperatures and mainly dry conditions across most of eastern Kentucky from Wednesday through Friday. Some isolated convection will be possible across the Cumberland Plateau and vicinity both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Highs each day will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with peak heat indices perhaps exceeding 100 degrees at times for a few locations. This weekend, as the ridge gives way to troughing aloft, better convective coverage is expected, generally peaking in the afternoon and early evening timeframe. A surface cold front will also be in play, likely approaching from the north. Again, confidence in timing these specifics is pretty low at this point. Highs will cool off to the upper 80s by Sunday, and mid 80s by Monday. Lows most nights will range from the mid to upper 60s to around 70, with modest ridge/valley splits through Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail throughout the period. Winds will be light and variable, with just scattered passing high clouds overnight. One possible exception will be fog formation for valleys and where rain fell such as at KLOZ and KSME. For those TAF sites, rainfall during the day could allow for fog to develop overnight, with MVFR to possibly IFR conditions possible at some point during the 06Z to 13Z timeframe. Any fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise, ushering in another day of VFR conditions, with light and variable winds and typical scattered cumulus developing by the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.