textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected from today through Thursday night. Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a distinct potential for strong to damaging wind gusts - mainly today and tonight. - Instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding - particularly today into tonight.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire forecast area through 2 am Thursday morning, primarily for flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 910 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the PoP adjustments for the near term weather targeting the southwest parts of the area as well as the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 535 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026

The most current model data continues to suggest a pattern aloft that favors the formation of storm clusters through Friday - most of which will impinge on the weather for eastern Kentucky. Right now, SPC has continued a Marginal severe threat into Friday for the bulk of our area. Meanwhile, WPC continues to highlight excessive rain threats through Friday - though the concern is higher earlier in the week. We continue to highlight this in messaging and social media. Please keep monitoring this developing, potentially impactful, weather situation. By the weekend things should be settling down, though, thanks to the 5h ridge building in from the southwest pushing a front back northeast of the area.

The previous long term discussion follows:

With a strong ridge across the Gulf of America and parts of the Southern Mississippi Valley, and a strong upper level low in eastern Canada. The result will be strong NW to SE flow across the Ohio Valley, including Kentucky on Thursday - a continuation from the short term portion of the forecast. With an elongated surface boundary also set up across the Ohio Valley, this could continue the pain train of MCS's passing southeast and through the region on Thursday. In some promising news, the ridge does start to build northward on Friday, which will push the storm trajectory north a bit. However, could still impact the northeast portion of the state during the day. The ridge will continue to build in further as we go into Saturday, sustaining through Sunday, before it's pushed back southward during the day Monday as troughing increases along the Atlantic Coast, reintroducing the same NW to SE flow to the region again through the rest of the forecast period.

As has been discussed over the past days, with each round of MCSs that moves through, another round of heavy to torrential rainfall will occur on increasingly saturated soils - so the flash flood threat will remain a concern. CAMS have really not been handling these MCSs well in the short term, both spatially or temporally. And if the CAMs aren't handling it well, the long-term models are also not lending much confidence. Friday is also a bit interesting because the upper level forcing will be lessoning, but the surface boundary will finally drop southward into the state as a cold front, which could continue some convection across the region - though still unclear if there will actually be an MCS or just more scattered to widespread convection. By Saturday, as ridging takes further hold and the surface boundary drops farther south of the state, high pressure should generally be in control. This should persist into Sunday. The NBM does still have some very low end pops, mainly along the far eastern side of the state, but don't expect anything more at this point.

When the pattern begins to set back up with SW flow on Monday into Tuesday, WPC is also analyzing another cold front shifting southeast through the state as well, which, if it pans out, would bring yet another increase in precipitation to the region.

Despite the passage of cold fronts and numerous systems moving through, overall temperatures are forecast to rather steady-state, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will be in the upper

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 825 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026

Showers and storms will affect many of the TAF sites this morning with the heavier cells mainly over the Cumberland Valley with attendant low VIS and CIGs. We are expecting a lull in the activity for much of the area through the bulk of the afternoon (per the latest CAM guidance) before more storms develop or move in - especially in the evening into the overnight. Again the predictability of the coverage and location of these showers/storms is low, making the forecast low confidence and rather messy.

Outside of storms, winds will be light (less than 10 kts) and generally from the south to southwest. Some fog and low clouds are also possible later tonight into Thursday morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068- 069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.