textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A deep upper level low over the Eastern US will keep showery weather and a cold air advection regime in place for the next couple of days.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall today and tomorrow, with minor accumulations possible in the higher elevation locales along the Virginia state line.

- Dry weather and a gradual warming trend are forecast next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 633 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2026

Updated Sky and PoP grids through 00z this evening based on current observed and model trends using latest hourly model data. Otherwise, changes were minimal.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 412 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

The long term forecast period features a return to tranquil sensible weather conditions across Eastern Kentucky. The longwave troughing feature responsible for the active weather in the short term forecast period is progged to propagate off to the east on Sunday, with an amplified ridge building into the region in its wake. The synoptic-scale subsidence downstream of that ridge axis will keep a broad surface high pressure system in the vicinity of the forecast area for much of the upcoming work week. It will also reinforce the dry nature of the antecedent airmass, which, in turn, will suppress precipitation chances and keep skies mostly clear. The forecast guidance suite does not resolve that ridge axis east of the forecast area until the very end of the period. Therefore, next week's sensible weather forecast looks seasonably pleasant, with chilly morning lows, gradually moderating afternoon highs, and increasing diurnal temperature ranges with each passing day.

When the period opens on Saturday night, there is likely to be lingering low-level cloud cover across northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. These clouds will act as insulation and keep overnight lows in the 30s. So, Saturday night won't be the coldest night in the forecast period. The clouds should gradually erode as the pattern transitions on Sunday and Sunday night, but their continued presence will keep highs cooler and lows warmer than what is forecast for later on in the forecast period. With relatively less solar insolation present and continued NNW low-level flow, Sunday's afternoon highs should struggle to rise above the 50 degree mark. Sunday night's lows could remain insulated to the 30s in places closer to the WV state line where cloud cover clings on for one more night, but the clearing trend should reach western locales by Monday morning. Temperatures could drop down into the 20s there, but colder temperatures are expected later on in the period, when the surface high will be positioned closer to the CWA.

The growing influence of the vertically-stacked ridging will favor increasingly efficient diurnal heating and cooling processes. Ample sunshine should allow high temperatures to moderate back into the 50s on Monday, then towards the 60s by midweek. This overarching warming trend is supported by modeled midlevel height rises across the forecast guidance suite. LREF mean 500mb geopotential heights steadily climb towards values that rank between the 90th and 95th percentile of model climatology by Thursday. The ridge axis will be directly overhead by then, and this corresponds with late-period highs in the lower 70s. However, the same mostly clear and dry conditions that favor this warming trend will also favor ridge- valley temperature splits at night. Valley locales are accordingly expected to experience well-below-freezing temperatures on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights. The area's conventional cold spots (sheltered and shaded hollows) could even climb down into the lower half of the 20s, marking the coldest temperature readings of the season thus far. The bottom end of the forecast MinT envelope in this time frame is contingent upon how low afternoon dewpoints mix out, but ensemble probabilities for temperatures less than or equal to 25 degrees peak in the 40-60 percent chance range on Tuesday morning. It will intrinsically become harder for lows to get quite this cold as highs move closer to above-normal values later on in the period, but near- to just-below freezing lows are still forecast through midweek. Warm air advection on the back side of the ridge axis could yield above-freezing lows area-wide at the very end of the period on Thursday night, but this WAA isn't accompanied by any meaningful low-level moisture return. So, aside from some potential frost-related window-scraping on the chilliest mornings, very little weather-related societal impacts are anticipated across Eastern Kentucky next week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 631 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2026

A mix of primarily MVFR and IFR conditions are expected through much of the first half of the TAF period with occasional rain/rain showers and low cigs, with some improvements to VFR conditions possible after 00z from the west and northwest, though there is considerable uncertainty in the timing of these improvements. Winds should average west to northwest winds at generally less than 10 kts through the period, with some gusts as high as 15 to 20 kts possible in showers during the late morning through afternoon period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.