textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather continues today, with widespread heat indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

- An anomalously moist airmass over the region should lead to rounds of storms through Sunday, some of which could produce strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- Another cold front crosses the region Tuesday to Wednesday, bringing a strong to severe storm threat, followed by relatively cooler and drier weather to end next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1138 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Temps have warmed quickly this morning, and the building instability is allowing cu and showers to begin developing, with thunderstorms eventually expected. The clouds/showers will slow the warm-up, but even so, it would seem that the warmest locations will probably be a degree or two warmer than was forecast, and minor adjustments have been made.

UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up, mainly to go with less fog near Lake Cumberland and west of I-75 initially this morning. Lingering fog further east should lift and dissipate over the next hour or so. Otherwise, stray convection that had been occurring around and prior to sunrise has largely dissipated. For now, however, opted to keep slight pops in the southwest for the next couple of hours, before a general increase areawide with daytime heating.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Saturday evening into Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across Eastern Kentucky, as a shortwave moves through a positively tilted trough covering much of the Northeast US and Southeast Canada and an associated cold front sags into the OH Valley and portions of the Appalachians. Farther upstream, a high amplitude ridge of high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West, with the apex of the ridge axis extending well into Alberta and Saskatchewan. Models also depict another upper level low on the upstream side of the ridge, located in British Columbia.

The cold front becomes draped across the Ohio Valley late Saturday night and is expected to continue to sag south into Kentucky on Sunday. PWATs will be close to 2 inches ahead of the cold front, dropping to around 1 inch behind it. Storms ahead of the cold front Saturday evening through Sunday will have potential to put down localized heavy rainfall. The WPC has placed most of the Big Sandy and southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins in a marginal ERO Saturday through Sunday morning. While all of the better severe weather parameters (especially shear) stay north of the forecast area and in the Ohio Valley, there may be a low end severe threat across Kentucky. Moderate instability is anticipated and water loaded downdrafts could result in strong to damaging wind gusts from isolated to scattered activity early Saturday evening. Locations in and around thunderstorms may experience gusty and erratic winds. Convective allowing models suggest a weakening line of storms may move into eastern KY around sunset or a bit after and there could be a small wind gust threat from this as well. The SPC has the entire area under a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday and more southern location on Sunday ahead of the front where instability may be strongest.

Through Sunday, as the upper level low progresses deeper into Northeast Canada, the trailing cold front slowly slides off to the east producing additional showers and storms along the way. The upper level low over British Columbia rides over the ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West. Height rises are expected Sunday night through Monday, leading to a break in active weather and mostly sunny skies Monday.

By Tuesday, the upper level low that was modeled to ride over the ridge, spills down the lee side, into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Another cold front will pass trough the region Sometime Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Some models are suggesting a great deal of moisture accompanying this system and preceding the frontal passage. There should be stronger flow aloft/more shear with this system compared to this weekend, and strong to locally damaging winds will be possible with any storms along or ahead of the front. SPC has highlighted this potential mainly for northern parts of eastern KY. However, details and timing of mesoscale features will likely change over the coming days. This will continue to be monitored. After showers and storms move through with the cold frontal passage much drier air is forecasted to move into the area. This will contribute to a dry Thursday.

Temperatures generally range from the mid to upper 80s during the afternoons and upper 60s to lower 70s at night, at least through Tuesday. After the frontal passage Tuesday temperatures are expected to cool some, ranging from the low to mid 80s during the afternoons, cooling into the lower 60s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at KSME, KJKL, KSJS, and KIOB with low stratus at KLOZ and some MVFR reductions in fog at KSYM. Reductions to MVFR, IFR, and in some cases lower than that were occurring at non TAF site locations. This fog should lift and dissipate through around 13Z. Otherwise, cumulus development is anticipated by around 15Z to 16Z with isolated to scattered showers and storms between 16Z and 00Z, with spatial coverage likely the greatest for the more western terminals. PROB30s were used to cover the potential for all but KSJS, where activity should be more sparse. Outside of any showers and storms, expect generally light winds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.