textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Just a small chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm each day for most of the week.

- Heat and humidity build today - likely becoming quite oppressive by mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026

The long-term period opens Tuesday evening with an ~597 dam high situated directly over the Commonwealth. At the surface, corresponding high pressure centered off the Delmarva Peninsula will exert its influence across the Southeastern US. A very hot air mass will be found under the upper-level high with 850 hPa temperatures over the eastern Kentucky Coalfields around 22C. Upstream, a 500 hPa trough will be stationed over the Western CONUS.

The upper-level high will very slowly drift eastward through midweek to a position over Virginia by Thursday evening, at which point, 850 hPa temperatures over the JKL CWA will reach the zenith of the forecast period at 23 to 24C. Dew points will also be in the 70s on both days, allowing for moderate to strong destabilization on both Wednesday and Thursday, but a mid-level cap should keep a lid on most deep convection. Only isolated PoPs are found across portions of the area through Thursday. Heat indices will continue to climb each afternoon, with the hottest readings on Thursday afternoon in the 100 to 110 degree range for most areas. Relief at night will be limited, with low temperatures generally ranging in the 70s.

Heading into Friday and the Independence Day weekend, the upper- level ridging will gradually break down as troughing ejects eastward. As this occurs, difficult-to-time perturbations will lead to renewed threats for more widespread, diurnally modulated convection amidst weaker capping. Model soundings suggest that continued weak shear combined with high PWATs could lead to a threat of downburst winds from stronger pulse storms. The heat will also gradually subside. While heat indices could still rise to near or above 100F through Sunday, there will have been an overall slow cooling trend as the ridge dissipates.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are present at the start of the 12Z TAF period with an isolated shower or two noted - located mainly east of the western TAF spots. Some fog is out there as well, as this will dissipate shortly leaving VFR conditions behind for the bulk of the aviation period. However, we may see some fog impact a couple of the TAF sites late tonight/early Tuesday morning, as well. Winds will be light and variable through the period at less than 10 knots.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050-051-058-059-068-069-079-080-083>086.