textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will average 10 to 20 degrees above normal into Saturday.

- Another round of rain or showers is forecast from tonight into Saturday, with the highest totals potentially nearing an inch forecast in the Cumberland Valley.

- A colder and drier airmass moves into the region over the weekend and persists into early next week.

- With the arrival of the colder airmass, scattered snow showers and flurries are possible to end the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 722 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026

Added patchy fog into the grids for much of southeastern Kentucky early this evening spreading north with time through the overnight. Fog this evening will tend favor areas that received a decent amount of rainfall earlier today and where only thin high clouds are allowing for sufficient radiational cooling for fog development. As low clouds develop and insolation increases along with increasing shower activity, fog coverage should diminish.

UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026

Early evening update is out with not much in way of significant change. Did lower PoPs slightly in the near term near where a quasi-stationary front is located across northeast to south- central Kentucky. However, this front will be a focal point for the next system late tonight into Saturday bringing the next widespread chance for rain/showers.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 517 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

On Sunday morning, a lobe of vorticity wrapping around the backside of a closer upper level low is forecast to swing through the Ohio River Valley. In the wake of the previous day's cold front, temperature profiles look sufficiently cold enough for any resultant precipitation to fall as snow on Sunday morning. Model soundings continue to indicate the potential for scattered convective snow showers, and the latest runs of the GFS and NAM resolve snow squall parameters as high as 2-4 over the forecast area between 12z and 18z Sunday. Marginal amounts of instability in the lower levels of the atmosphere could result in locally enhanced snowfall rates, but warm ground/pavement temperatures will limit accumulation potential. In the strongest showers, snowfall rates could be high enough for spotty dustings on grassy and elevated surfaces, but dry snow ratios and blustery winds up to 30mph will serve as other limiting factors when it comes to accumulations. However, the snow-squall esque nature of this activity bears watching, as minor travel impacts may materialize due to brief visibility reductions as the fast-moving showers pass through. Precipitation chances are greatest in the northeastern half of the forecast area, so interests with Sunday morning travel plans on routes east of I-75, such as I-64, KY-15 and the Mountain Parkway, are encouraged to monitor for potential impact- based products like special weather statements and then heed their calls to action. Any AM activity should taper off to flurries on Sunday afternoon as the upper level trough axis and the related surface cold front sweep through the area.

Behind that boundary, a colder and drier airmass will advect into the column via westerly to northwesterly flow. A post-frontal surface high builds into the region overnight as the midlevel heights rise and the parent upper level low ejects off into New England. This favors a clearing trend and sets up quieter sensible weather for the start of the work week. Expect ridge-valley temperature splits on Sunday and Monday nights, albeit with sub- freezing lows across the entire forecast area. Sunday night looks colder, with ridgetops in the 20s and valley locales in the teens. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures are forecast to recover to the low to mid 40s on Monday afternoon. Headed into Tuesday, the high propagates southeast as broad cyclonic flow continues aloft. Surface winds will back towards the southwest, but the flow aloft continues to look cool/dry. This translates to moderating mid-week temperatures. Expect one more night of subfreezing lows, with ridges closer to 30 and valleys in the 20s before MaxTs climb towards the 50s on Tuesday afternoon.

The attention then turns towards a vigorous mid/upper level trough digging into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and then the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. The surface reflection of that feature, a decently strong cold front, looks to sweep through the forecast area in this time frame. Precipitation is forecast to begin as rain within the warm sector (Tuesday night lows in the upper 30s and Wednesday highs in the upper 40s/near 50). It will then transition over to snow in the post-frontal CAA regime, with much colder temperatures in the 20s/30s on Thursday. However, the moisture transport with this midweek system looks much less potent than it was with the system discussed in the short term forecast period. Monday's surface high will have settled over the Gulf Coast states by midweek, and this should block access to the better Gulf Moisture. Any rain from the midweek cold front looks to be on the lighter side, but forecast guidance signals that the colder airmass behind it could linger for longer. Models generally agree that additional shortwave disturbances will work to reinforce/amplify the troughing aloft towards the end of the period. They continue to disagree on the magnitude of the resultant cold air, although the potential for winter weather will need to be monitored closely in the extended forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 722 PM EST FRI JAN 9 2026

Patchy fog has begun to develop across southeastern Kentucky this evening ahead of the quasi-stationary front where sufficient radiational cooling is occurring. Fog will likely decrease in coverage as low clouds increase from the southwest with the approaching system moving along the front.

A low pressure system will track northeast tonight into Saturday along a nearly stationary boundary located south and east of KIOB and KSYM but northwest of KJKL and KSME. Cigs will lower to MVFR as this system approaches, with widespread rain showers overspreading the region from southwest to northeast between 06z and 12z Saturday. Localized and/or intermittent IFR conditions are also possible. This activity looks to become more scattered in nature from west to east as the daytime progresses Saturday, particularly between 15z and 18z, before gradually improving conditions occur toward the end, or perhaps just beyond the end, of the TAF period.

Light and variable winds are expected for the terminals, with the exception of a northwest wind of 5 to 10 kts to begin the TAF period at KIOB and KSYM currently located just behind the quasi- stationary front. However, even these winds will subside through the evening and overnight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.