textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region between today and Wednesday morning.

- Isolated strong storms are possible on this afternoon/ evening for areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A cold and dry airmass will settle into the region for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

- There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for Saturday and beyond.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 456 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

A surface high-pressure system is forecast to build into the region and remain in place from Thanksgiving Day through late Saturday night. While surface high pressure prevails, the upper-level flow will persist from the northwest, supporting the advection of colder air for both Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Long-term deterministic models and a significant portion of their individual ensemble members indicate an active conclusion to the extended forecast period. While differences exist among the individual model runs, the consensus trend is for a shortwave perturbation to track from the southern Plains into the Mid- Mississippi Valley. This feature will bring increasing chances of rain showers, along with the potential for a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning before temperatures warm sufficiently to support an all-rain precipitation type. The forecast area is expected to remain on the warm side of the system during its passage, leading to long- duration rainfall.

The long-term period will be highlighted by high pressure building into the region on Thursday. Due to the northwesterly flow, CAA will favor colder temperatures beginning Thursday and persisting through early Saturday. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to bottom out in the 20s for the mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before a warming trend commences on Sunday morning. Another low- pressure system is forecast to impact the area toward the end of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 639 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

VFR conditions are occurring across all TAF sites with this issuance. Showers in association with an approaching surface low are continuing to move across the area and will do so through the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front. A lull in shower activity is forecast for later this afternoon before a secondary cold front brings another round showers for the end of the period. Terminals are forecast to fall into MVFR later this morning and remain MVFR through the rest of the period. Winds will be gusty out of the south-southwest as low level jet winds mix to the surface but once the low-level jet core moves off to the north, the winds are expected to slacken off a little bit this afternoon to light and variable. However, winds from thunderstorms this afternoon could be gusty and erratic.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.