textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Look for areas of fog, locally dense, to affect places mainly along and north of the Mountain Parkway through mid- morning.

- Wet and humid weather will last through most of the upcoming week, but some drying may occur by next weekend.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 505 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to tweak highs and lows to a more narrow range given the persistent high moisture environment looking to hold over the area through Thursday. The pattern shift that could bring some now welcomed drier weather looks to be on track for the end of the week and through at least the start of next weekend.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The forecast period opens on Tuesday with a stalled boundary oriented west-to-east across the Commonwealth. This boundary will serve as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm development through much of the upcoming week. In line with previous model suites and forecast packages, heavy rainfall indices remain largely unchanged. Forecast PWATs continue to range from 1.70 inches to 1.90 inches, driven by robust moisture advection. These high precipitable water values, paired with skinny CAPE profiles noted in model soundings, continue to indicate highly efficient rainfall production along the boundary.

Long-term guidance hints at a breakdown of this wet and stormy pattern late in the week as the stationary front sags southward as a cold front, bringing an end to the widespread precipitation. Nonetheless, prior to the cold frontal passage late in the week, forecast QPF ranges from 0.75 inches in the far northeastern portions of the CWA to 1.25 inches near the Cumberland Plateau. As noted in previous discussions, these QPF values carry a heavy caveat, as totals will certainly fluctuate based on convective activity and exactly where mesoscale bands of heavier rainfall set up.

By Friday, the front is forecast to drop south of the region. While it will initially remain a stationary boundary to our south, showers and storms are forecast to increase again by the weekend as the boundary lifts back northward as a warm front. Temperatures through the period will remain seasonal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Once the front sags south, temperatures will cool a few degrees, allowing overnight lows to drop into the 50s.

In summary, an active and unsettled weather pattern will dominate the region into next week as a stationary boundary stalls across the Commonwealth. While seasonal temperatures persist, repeated rounds of rainfall, heavy at times, will bring an increasing threat for flash flooding and eventual river flooding.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Showers will gradually decline or become more drizzle through the next few hours for most of the forecast area - persisting longest over far southeastern Kentucky. Aviation conditions mainly ranged from VFR to MVFR at TAF issuance, but are expected to worsen to at least MVFR area-wide during the rest of the night and could fall to IFR/LIFR in some areas - particularly KIOB and KSYM. Slow improvement eventually begins from north to south by mid to late afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through the next 24 hours.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.