textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure brings dry and cool early autumn weather to begin the week.

- Warmer temperatures return from the middle to end of next week, along with our next reasonable potential for rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 729 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026

With clear skies and light winds in place, the common update for quickly dropping valley temperatures around sundown has been done in the very near term. There are no substantive changes for tonight as a whole.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 246 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026

While surface high pressure will remain over eastern Kentucky yielding continued sunny skies Tuesday, warm advection will begin to gradually increase through midweek as upper ridging builds over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, a cut-off low over the southwest CONUS will advect deep tropical moisture northward from the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean into the middle of the country ahead of a cold front over the Southern Plains, with models struggling significantly in the evolution of this low as the week progresses, causing increasing uncertainty downstream over eastern Kentucky. At the same time, model ensemble systems also differ on the speed, location, and strength of a northern stream system and associated cold front traversing the northern part of the country, especially as it moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, later this week.

While there is significant model uncertainty with how these two key features evolve, confidence is high in a significant warm-up from Tuesday through Thursday, with highs peaking Thursday in the mid to upper 80s, before a cooling trend begins Friday as clouds and rain chances begin to increase from the west and/or southwest. Whenever rain does arrive Friday and/or this weekend, there is a good chance that it will be accompanied by some degree of tropical fetch off of the subtropical eastern Pacific and/or the Gulf of America, which could yield (40-50% chance) rain amounts exceeding 0.5" in a 24-hour period.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026

Valley fog will occur tonight into Monday morning, bringing localized IFR or worse conditions, especially in southeast KY. However, TAF sites are unlikely to be affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.