textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers are likely into the morning, with a few thunderstorms possible as a weakening cold front and a couple of minor waves pass today.

- A stronger system brings another chance for widespread showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday, but the severe weather potential is still uncertain for most of eastern Kentucky with points west of the area more prone to seeing the stronger storms.

UPDATE

Issued at 1043 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Spotty weak showers continue late this morning along and ahead of a sluggish cold front -- roughly southeast of a Paintsville to London line. This activity should very slowly shift closer to the Virginia/Kentucky border, finally exiting into southwest Virginia by 4-5 PM. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out over far southeast Kentucky until that time. Later in the evening, a few isolated showers will be possible, primarily over the Big Sandy Basin, with an upper level disturbance.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the near term PoPs per radar. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Sunday evening into Monday will generally be quiet for Eastern Kentucky, as the surrounding area sees rising heights from a building ridge over the Ohio Valley. Clear skies and light winds Sunday night will lead to ridge valley splits in temperatures. Ridges will likely cool into the low 50s while colder valleys decouple into the low to mid 40s.

Monday, Eastern Kentucky will sneak in a nice day ahead of the next approaching system, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs around the lower 80s. Through Monday, a surface low in the Central Plains will propagate northeast into the Upper Midwest. A surface warm front will slowly encroach into the area from the southwest. Later Monday, now looking well into the overnight, showers and thunderstorms will move across Kentucky ahead of an approaching cold front. This comes as the trough becomes negatively titled. Latest models and ensembles have been slowing the progression of the cold front across Kentucky. With the latest model runs, the systems cold front may progress through Eastern Kentucky sometime Tuesday. This is important to note due to the slowed progression, storm environment may be more suitable for severe weather Tuesday afternoon. With MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH in the 150-250 m2/s2 range, model trends should be watched. In lieu of the latest model trends, showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday.

Model spread increases beyond the frontal passage, Tuesday. However, looking at the WPC's cluster mean 24-hr 500 mb heights and anomalies, 100 ensemble runs including those from the Canadian, GFS, and European favor troughing of some degree over the Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. This will trend temperatures cooler towards the end of the week, and beginning of May.

A series of shortwaves could propagate through the Great Lakes upper level low through the end of the period, which would lead to a continued pattern of unsettled weather and additional shower and storm chances. Given this potential, precipitation will be possible through the remainder of the long term period. However, details of this forecast remain unclear at this time, and confidence in PoPs is very low on any given day.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

a variety of aviation conditions begin the period as showers and possibly a few isolated storms are moving deeper into the area with a weakening cold front. With this, ceilings have lowered to MVFR or IFR for most locations. With that boundary working across the area from northwest to southeast in the afternoon, MVFR or IFR ceilings can be anticipated for most sites through the morning before gradual improvements in the afternoon, from northwest to southeast. Winds will be light and variable in general through the period, though some stronger gusts are possible in and around convection. Some late night fog may affect a few of the terminals tonight into dawn, Sunday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.