textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm will occur this afternoon into tonight near and ahead of a cold front.

- Behind the cold front, a very modest and brief cool-down will take place to start the week, followed by a return to unseasonably warm weather.

- A stronger cold front will bring more showers and thunderstorms around mid week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 245 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

Next week starts off with a warm front southwest of the region which is expected to progress northward through Monday. This will lead to increased clouds heading into the early evening. With little or light cloud cover prior, and light southerly winds, ridge valley splits will probably set up across the CWA prior to showers and storms spreading north overnight. While temperatures during the day are expected to range in the low to upper 70s under mostly sunny skis, temperatures at night are expected to cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and upper 50s to near 60 along ridgetops.

As this warm front pushes north, and eventually stalls over the Great Lakes region, the forecast area will remain south of it, benefiting from a deep moisture return and warm southwesterly flow. This will support scattered shower chances, and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s through Tuesday. With overcast skies and southerly flow, temperatures may remain elevated in the low to mid 60s through Tuesday night.

Tuesday evening heading into Wednesday, an upper level low in the Southwest ejects northeast into the Central Plains. While this occurs a northern stream digs into the Ohio Valley. These two streams will phase Wednesday. With warm and humid conditions, good forcing, and marginal instability showers and storms are expected ahead of a strong cold front. This strong cold front will move through Eastern Kentucky, with the greatest threat being damaging wind gusts. During the day Wednesday, temperatures will likely hang out around 80 or warm a few degrees into the 80s. After the cold front moves through the area early Wednesday evening, temperatures plummet into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Thursday, showers and perhaps a wintry mix move out of the area during the morning with chances decreasing drastically by late morning. The warning area will be under west-northwest flow and CAA. This will lead to little daytime heating, and temperatures reaching the mid 40s to upper 50s. Thursday nigh will likely hover around 32 for the low in the wake of the departing trough.

Friday and Saturday presently look to remain under quasi-zonal flow and with isolated shower chances with high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s, and lows in the mid 40s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 147 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period. Scattered thunderstorms were getting ready to enter the far northwest portion of the forecast area northwest of KIOB and KSYM. An area of more widespread showers and thunderstorms was further to the west and north. Southwesterly winds were gusting 20-30 kts most places.

The area of showers/thunderstorms will transition southeastward this afternoon and evening, with coverage increasing over eastern KY, and IFR or worse conditions expected at times in the heavier showers/thunderstorms. Some of them could also bring strong wind gusts, but the widespread gustiness of the afternoon will subside this evening. After the heavier precip moves through, lighter showers should linger into the evening. As this happens, a deterioration to generalized low end MVFR or IFR conditions is also expected, lasting through the night. On Sunday, improvement to VFR is forecast by the end of the period northwest of a line from KSME to KSJS.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.