textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with warm afternoons and cool nights will persist into the weekend.

- A low potential for rain will return by Sunday, with a more significant system bringing a higher potential for widespread rain arriving around the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a fresh area of high pressure in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky as a dry cold front has settled south of the state. This will slacken the post frontal northeast winds and make for partly to mostly clear skies overnight. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 50s in the most sheltered valleys to the lower and mid 60s on the ridges. Meanwhile, amid northeast winds of around 5 mph, dewpoints vary from the mid and upper 30s north to the low and mid 50s in the south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 244 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

After roughly two weeks of dry weather, rain should finally make a comeback during the long term period. The question is when. What at one time looked like a good bet for damp weather returning on Sunday is continuing to look less likely, with a greater probability for rain now waiting until later in the new week.

The start of the period will see a large but meager-for-its-size shortwave trough rippling through what would otherwise be a sizable upper ridge over most of the eastern CONUS. The trough axis should be laid out roughly from IA to the FL panhandle Sunday morning and will pass eastward over the JKL forecast area Sunday night and early Monday. At the surface, high pressure centered along or offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast will ridge westward along the central/southern Appalachians, with a cold air damming scenario setting up in the flow against the eastern side of the mountains and downsloping here. Along with downsloping, our low level flow will still be largely originating out of the high, with moisture advection off the Atlantic and gulf wrapping around us to the south and west early in the week. Thus, as the initial upper trough passes over, our moisture should still be limited in the lower levels. Will look for mid-high clouds and virga to be abundant, but it is questionable how much if any precip will be realized. The GFS has trended toward the more consistently drier ECMWF for the early week wave, and our POP is now dropping further in this forecast cycle, as deterministic runs of all models are now mainly dry. The western and northwestern portions of our area, furthest removed from downsloping and closest to the moisture channel, would have the best shot at rain.

By the time our early week trough weakens and departs to our east Monday night, another stronger long wave trough should be progressing eastward across the central CONUS, accompanied by a deep low, or series of lows. Models do not quite agree on the evolution of this system late in the week as it affects our area. The ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough and slower to close off an upper low compared to the GFS. However, they both eventually close off an upper low and track it nearby at about the same time frame, with another large surface low deepening significantly as it passes. The stronger ECMWF solution results in colder air in the system's wake by Friday. At this stage, the result of latest developments is an increase in POP with the system in the Wednesday to Thursday time frame, and low confidence in the temperature forecast by Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

VFR conditions with gradually increasing and lowering high clouds are expected at the terminals through the TAF period as an upper level disturbance begins to approach. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure builds from the Great Lakes and into the Mid Atlantic states through the period. This will lead to calm winds initially in many valleys and light northeast to east winds elsewhere for the first 6 hours of the period. Winds will then become east to southeast on Saturday, but will remain less than 10KT. Winds should trend to light and variable to end the period following sunset on Saturday. Otherwise, a few river valley locations could experience MVFR or lower reductions in fog through 13Z or 14Z, but the TAF spots will not be impacted.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.