textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds and drizzle are likely to linger into the afternoon across much of eastern and northeastern Kentucky today. - Active weather continues through the end of the work week, with a seasonably mild and moist airmass in place.

- Another system will bring rain to the area late Monday into the middle of next week.

- A strong cold front is expected at the end of the period, on or around Thanksgiving Day, and is likely to bring much lower temperatures to eastern Kentucky to end next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 100 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent radar, satellite, and observation trends. Rain reaching the ground has been reported in the returns upstream in eastern Middle TN/Cumberland plateau near KCSV and KSRB back to the KBNA areas. Slight chance to chance pops were brought into the southwest/southern locations a couple of hours quicker than the previous forecast to account for this trends.

UPDATE Issued at 726 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025

There are no changes to the forecast except to update the latest observed hourly temperatures in NDFD.

UPDATE Issued at 531 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Pre-dawn update is out with not much in the way of change to the forecast. Hourly temperatures were updated by using the latest observations as the initialization and then interpolating into the morning package hourly temperature forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 233 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025

The period begins Friday night with the area within the warm sector of an approaching mid-level disturbance and cold front. Thus, high PoPs are expected until cold frontal passage Saturday morning, with decreasing PoPs favoring the typical cold advection upslope areas across southeastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon. Saturday night through the first half of Monday, the NBM has begun trending cooler as models and their ensemble systems have come into better agreement that this period will see relatively dry conditions with decreased cloud cover and light winds.

The next system arrives late Monday into Tuesday with fairly high confidence, though there are discrepancies in the depiction of the evolution of the mid-level pattern between the models, especially heading into the middle of next week and the busiest part of the holiday travel period. Thus, PoPs have been raised by around 20 percent on average compared to previous package from Monday night through Tuesday night, with considerable uncertainty remaining for Wednesday into Wednesday night based on if the upper trough and surface front completely clear the area to the east or if they linger back far enough west over the Ohio Valley for another round of light precipitation before clearing the area.

A much cooler, if not downright cold, pattern appears likely behind the expected cold front passage at the very end of the long-term period or just beyond beginning next Thursday, so these trends will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Low clouds mixed either to higher cloud bases or mixed out entirely north to near the Mtn Pkwy at issuance time. Thus, much of the southern locations were either VFR or MVFR with IFR lingering near KSYM and I-64 corridor. Mid and high clouds ahead of the next low pressure system are already streaming toward and into the region, but VFR should hold to begin the TAF period in the south and for northern sections such as KSYM a gradual improvement to MVFR and then VFR is anticipated. However, deteriorating conditions with thickening and lowering clouds and showers will spread into the area from the southwest and west to the east and northeast with MVFR likely to return to KEKQ by 00Z and then over the remainder of the area through 08Z. Showers along with isolated storms and deteriorating conditions are forecast to arrive again from the west by the end of the period. Mainly MVFR or IFR should remain once it develops to end the period, although some breaks may occur near the TN border behind a warm front late in the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.