textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing winds just above the surface are expected by late this evening into early Thursday. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are probable and could be stronger near and north of I-64.

- Storm chances return tonight to Thursday night. Some storms could approach severe limits late tonight north of the Mtn Pkwy, and across all of eastern KY on Thursday. - The primary threat from storms late tonight and Thursday will be damaging wind gusts. Isolated flash flooding is also possible should locations receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 215 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

Updated the grids with the latest observational data and kept the wind edits from earlier. A flood watch was also issued for the threat of thunderstorms repeatedly passing over the same locations which could lead to isolated flash flooding in low lying areas from late tonight through early Thursday morning for northern portions of the forecast area.

UPDATE Issued at 950 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

Updated the forecast using the most recent observational data from around the region to recalculate the diurnal temperature curve for this afternoon. Also made adjustments to the wind gusts this evening and overnight, blending more towards the HRRR and CONSShort and away from the NBM. An SPS was also issued for windy conditions this evening and overnight where south to southwest winds will gust up to 30-40 mph, a few gusts to 45 mph is possible, especially near and north of I-64.

UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

Minor adjustments were made based on recent observations and trends. Lingering valley fog in the south should dissipate over the next hour. Some passing clouds between 4.5 and 6kft agl are anticipated this morning and fair weather cumulus may also develop. Temperatures will moderate further compared to today.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

The threat for a strong storm of two will linger through around sunset in the southern parts of the area with training of convection and locally heavy totals perhaps more of a concern ahead of the cold front gradually dropping south across eastern KY. This boundary should drop south of eastern KY Thursday night with the threat of convection waning toward dawn if not before as the shortwave trough move from the lower to mid OH Valley and into the central Appalachians.

Broad troughing lingers south form Canada into parts of the Great Lakes and northeast to end the week with not much change in 500 mb heights across eastern KY. Sfc high pressure should build into the Lower OH Valley from the Central Conus Fri into Friday night before the high shifts across and eventually east of eastern KY by late Saturday. By Saturday, in advance of a shortwave trough moving from the western Conus across the Rockies and into the Central Conus, an area of low pressure should begin to organize over parts of the High Plains/Central Plains and with the sfc high departing the front that will have stalled south of the area should begin to lift back north toward the OH Valley as a warm front to end the weekend. At the same time, the shortwave trough is progged to trek toward or into the Great Lakes and the OH Valley.

Model differences in timing and details and the potential intensity of convection exist by Sunday, but the overall theme is a return to unsettled weather is probable to end the weekend. Either way, the threat for unsettled weather would continue into early next week as the sfc low moves from the Central Conus/Plains and near or south of the Southern Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night and then into the mid Atlantic/Northeast through Monday. A trailing cold front would eventually cross eastern KY reducing chances, but there is uncertainty in the timing. Near and ahead of the front, chances for showers/storms would peak. The GFS operational run is generally further south and faster with this low track to end the weekend with a quicker arriving cold front while the ECMWF operational runs are slower with the track over or nearer to the Southern Great Lakes with the cold front crossing the area up to 18 to 24 hours later. Guidance generally is in agreement for a min in shower chances that are generally below climatology to end the period. Also of note, machine learning/AI convective guidance to end the weekend early next week varies with the EC based guidance having some lower end probabilities for severe storms and GEFS based guidance more suppressed to the southeast with probs.

At this point, blended model guidance has temperatures a couple of degrees below normal to normal behind the front Friday into Saturday when high pressure will gradually build across the area to begin the weekend. Temperatures would then trend milder behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front early next week. Temperatures are forecast to drop back slightly behind the front during the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

Winds should slowly ramp up as a tightening pressure gradient occurs over the area and ahead of an approaching cold front. Southerly to southwesterly wind gusts could reach 20-30 kts at times generally from 00Z through 12Z. After which winds should slowly diminish. While some models suggests wind shear due to the 50-60kt LLJ at 850-mb, turbulent mixing will likely occur over wind shear. VFR conditions will become MVFR overnight with cloud and visibility lowering expected with showers and thunderstorms moving through the area starting with KIOB and KSYM anytime after 06Z. These showers and thunderstorms will begin to diminish around 18Z at the same northern TAF sites first.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for KYZ044-050>052.