textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot and muggy weather continues through Monday, with near-record high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s in most places today.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening, mainly south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A stalled front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday, with isolated flash flooding possible from repeated heavy downpours.

- Seasonably cooler and drier air arrives Thursday and persists through the weekend, with daytime highs in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 50s, except in the upper 40s for some cooler valleys.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 443 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

The extended period opens Monday evening with fairly zonal flow aloft. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure will be situated south of James Bay. South of this high, a cold front will be draped from the Mid-Atlantic across the Commonwealth, trapped between the high pressure to the north and parallel upper- level steering winds. The result: showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday evening.

Farther west, an upper-level shortwave and broad troughing west of the Great Lakes will slowly translate eastward toward the Upper Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Quasi-zonal flow ahead of the shortwave, coupled with multiple perturbations riding along the stalled front, will allow for numerous to widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday. WPC has placed portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) ERO Tuesday and Wednesday due to some potential for excessive rainfall. Areas that experience repeated rounds of storms could see isolated instances of flash flooding.

On Thursday, amplification and passage of the upper-level trough should bring an end to the prolonged wet pattern. As the trough axis moves east of the area, drying of column will rapidly lower PWATs and bring drier conditions through the rest of the week and into the weekend. However, given timing discrepancies in model and ensemble guidance, lingering showers cannot be ruled out across the Big Sandy as well as eastern portions of the Kentucky River and Upper Cumberland River basins on Thursday. Otherwise, seasonably cool weather takes hold: daytime highs in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 50s return from Wednesday night onward, with some cooler valleys potentially dipping into the upper 40s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

Primarily VFR conditions were found across the JKL forecast area at the 06Z TAF issuance -- the only exception being the most sheltered river valleys where some fog has formed. There is a small chance that a shower or storm could affect SYM or SJS toward daybreak as convection over Ohio drifts south and east but confidence was too low to mention in the TAFs at this point. Otherwise,the river valley fog will dissipate on Sunday morning, leaving generally VFR conditions area wide through the afternoon. The only exception to that would be an isolated shower or thunderstorm risk. Winds will generally be light and variable through daybreak then become southwesterly 3 to 7 kts by afternoon

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.