textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Following morning showers and a few storms, temperatures trend warmer today and Tuesday with highs from 75 to 80F on gusty south to southwest winds.

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday night and last through Thursday morning. Beneficial rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 1.75 inches are expected.

- Cooler, below-normal temperatures settle in for the second half of the week, along with periodic low chances for showers heading into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1005 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

Late night to around dawn convection is departing into VA, while some convection in Central KY is moving southeast toward the region in advance of a disturbance. This next area of convection should move across northern and eastern sections of the area through early afternoon. Thereafter, a decrease in clouds and milder temperatures should prevail on southwest winds that may gust as high as 20 to 25 mph. Overall, hourly grids were freshened up based on observation and radar trends.

UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

An area of showers with some embedded thunder continues to track WNW- ESE across the heart of eastern Kentucky this morning. Another round of showers and embedded thunder is noted upstream of Louisville as well. Generally expect this corridor of shower activity to gradually shift northward with time, eventually north of the Mtn. Pkwy, by 18Z and the entire CWA by 20Z. Aside from blending the latest hi-res guidance into the hourly PoPs, the current forecast remains in good shape through the remainder of the day.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 418 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

The period begins Tuesday evening with a cold front situated from western PA through central and southwest OH and continued southwest into the Arkansas, with the nose of a mid-level jet streak and progressive shortwave (embedded with in a primary parent trough) moving toward eastern Kentucky. There is high confidence that widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur as this shortwave and jet energy crosses the area overnight into Wednesday, pushing the cold front to over or just south and east of the JKL CWA by Wednesday evening. This is followed by another shortwave and surface low riding along the front through the Tennessee and Cumberland Valleys. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms primarily over southern and eastern Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday.

Model spread for QPF across the forecast area continues to decline, primarily due to a continued reduction in higher-end amounts across the south, with the entire CWA now depicted between 1.00 and 1.75 inches, highest along the tier of counties bordering Tennessee.

Shower activity gradually winds down in the south and east the second half of Thursday as surface high pressure moves into the area. This dry window will be short-lived, as additional perturbations within persistent mean troughing aloft are progged to dive southeast toward the Commonwealth, bringing low chances for showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, for the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail through Tuesday morning. Mid- level cloud cover and associated ongoing scattered convection associated with a disturbance will diminish from southwest to northeast through 17Z. These will continue to be covered by PROB30 groups in the TAFs for when probabilties of showers or a stray storm and potential MVFR reductions are highest. Gusty southwest winds of 18 to 23 kts are then expected at most if not all sites from late this morning through the afternoon hours. Wind at the surface will slacken this evening but a renewed low-level jet may be marginally strong enough for mentionable LLWS overnight. Later TAF issuances will need to monitor for this potential concern.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.