textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow which persists will change to mostly snow this evening, with small accumulations possible.

- Seasonably cold temperatures with some ups and downs are forecast through next week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 303 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

The forecast period begins on the backside of a departing system as surface high pressure builds into the region. Upper-level northwesterly flow will maintain CAA, resulting in suppressed temperatures to start the period. Afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid-20s across the Bluegrass region, while areas toward the Tennessee and Virginia state lines will likely warm into the mid- 30s. From Thursday night into Friday, boundary layer winds will shift from the northwest to the west, initiating a period of WAA ahead of the next system.

Friday features the approach of a shortwave trough progged to migrate through the Great Lakes. This feature will drive a mid-level wind shift and facilitate the transport of a warmer air mass into the Commonwealth. Precipitation is expected to develop ahead of the associated warm front. Initial profiles will be cold enough to support snow showers; however, as the front lifts through the region and surface temperatures follow the diurnal heating curve, a transition to a wintry mix and eventually plain rain is expected by Friday afternoon, particularly for eastern portions of the CWA.Behind the warm front, temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper-30s in the Bluegrass and the upper-40s along the Tennessee border. This warming trend will be brief. By Friday evening, the shortwave will exit to the east, allowing a CAA regime to re- establish itself Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will reflect this air mass change, with overnight lows falling into the teens and mid-20s, and Saturday highs limited to the mid-20s and mid- 30s.

Model confidence begins to diverge Sunday and into early next week. Current forecast grids reflect a system tracking across the Ohio Valley that may skirt the CWA before high pressure returns, potentially bringing above-average temperatures. However, deterministic long-term guidance remains split. The ECMWF depicts a shortwave traversing the Ohio Valley, consistent with the current blended forecast. Conversely, the GFS remains dry for the forecast area and much of the eastern CONUS during this window. At this time, the forecast leans toward the weighted ECMWF solution.

Overall, the period is highlighted by a series of progressive waves. The first quick-moving system arrives late week, with a second arriving late weekend. While temperature fluctuations remain transitory, a broader warming trend appears probable for the end of the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 438 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2026

Conditions were mostly VFR with some spotty MVFR at the start of the period, with a bit of light rain and snow mainly north of I-64. A deterioration to MVFR is expected across the area this afternoon, with precipitation developing (largely in the form of rain). A further deterioration to IFR or worse conditions should then occur this evening, with sub-VFR conditions then lasting into Wednesday. The precipitation should transition to mainly snow from north to south tonight and Wednesday morning, but it will also be easing during this time.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ044- 050>052.