textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather persists at quite oppressive levels through the rest of the week, likely peaking on Thursday.

- Mostly dry weather is anticipated through Thursday, before chances for showers and storms return to end the week and over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 235 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026

Cumulus had largely mixed out across most of eastern Ky through 230 PM EDT, with temperatures having risen to around 90 or the lower 90s for most locations below 2000 feet. Dewpoints at these lower elevations ranged through the 70s and this was resulting in heat indices in the mid 90s to 104 range. Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and trends and this led to no substantial changes at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 619 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026

No major changes needed for this update. However, did issues an SPS for locally dense fog given some of the KYTC cams and observations. This fog will lift between 8 and 9 am and we will be left with mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026

As well noted by now, high pressure has been perched over the area through the better part of the week. By Thursday evening shortwave energy passing to the north, in the Upper Great Lakes, will have flattened the ridge as it also slowly nudges off to the east. Patchy valley fog may develop around or near the typically river valley locations.

By Friday, models and ensembles depict the area of high pressure over the coastal Carolinas. By Saturday the high progresses further east out over the Atlantic, as a surface low over the Lower Great Lakes region, features a cold front trailing back across the Ohio Valley. While the departure of the dominant high pressure leads to some reprieve from hot temperatures, it will remain hot and muggy.

Each afternoon, scattered storm chances return as storms will generally be diurnally driven. With modeled PWAT around 1.6 inches, storms will have the potential to produce breif yet heavy downpours. In fact, the WPC has issued a Day 5 Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall. They note in their discussion that they're casting a wider net to account for a potential MCS with training storm potential. A series of shortwaves will bring continued scattered storm chances through next Tuesday.

Temperatures Friday and Independence Day will likely range from the mid to upper 90s, with Friday the hotter of the two days. Temperatures warm into the upper 80s to low 90s Sunday and beyond, as Eastern Kentucky gets out from under the thumb of the persistent high pressure. In the evenings, temperatures generally remain in the low 70s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026

High pressure will remain over the OH Valley and Appalachian region through the period, keeping mainly VFR and light winds through the period. Cumulus has mixed out of eastern portions of the area and this should mix out or dissipate prior to sunset in the west. Mainly valley fog is expected to affect portions of the region between 04Z and 13Z with MVFR or IFR reductions and locally lower in some cases. The fog could again affect some or all of the TAF sites during the 08Z to 13Z timeframe. Opted to go with TEMPO groups with generally less reductions compared to what occurred this morning. Any fog should dissipate by 13Z in all locations and lead to VFR with some diurnally driven cumulus possible before the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.