textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Less humid air prevails into Wednesday, with low temperatures around 5 degrees below normal.

- Temperatures and humidity increase late Wednesday and into Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for a few thunderstorms.

- A few storms on Thursday could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 415 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026

The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered in the southwest Conus with the axis of the ridge extending to MT and Manitoba while an upper level low should be centered over Hudson Bay to the eastern Great Lakes to eastern KY to the Southeast. Well to the west, an upper level trough should be nearing the BC coast to the west coast of the Conus. At the surface, an area of low pressure should be centered near the Ontario and Quebec border with a cold front trailing into the Lower OH Valley to the Southern Plains. A ridge of sfc high pressure should extend from Manitoba to the Northern to Central Plains to mid MS Valley.

Thursday to Friday night, the upper level low in Canada should move into northern Quebec, while the associated trough should move into western Quebec to the mid Atlantic states to Southeast. At the same time, the upper ridge centered in the Southwest Conus should become centered over southern NM while the axis of the ridge tot he north moves to Manitoba to the Dakotas to Co while this ridge also builds east into the Lower MS Valley and the Lower OH Valley and TN Valley. At the same time, the the upper level trough initially nearing the west coast of Canada and the western Conus should move into western Canada to Northwest Conus. The sfc low in advance of the upper trough in sections of eastern Canada to the eastern Conus, should track into Quebec to the Maritimes with the trailing cold front crossing eastern KY late Thursday evening into Thursday night. A secondary boundary passes the area in more of a dry manner later Friday into Friday night with a sfc ridge building across the Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley in its wake. Recent guidance suggests 1500 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE for Thursday afternoon and evening with 20 to 30KT of bulk shear. This moderate instability and modest shear values could support some organized line segments capable of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Recent EC based AI/machine learning guidance also support some lower probabilities of Convective Hazards along with GEFS based probabilties also elevated for that timeframe.

Saturday to Sunday night, upper ridging should become centered over the mid MS Valley southwest to the Southern Plains from Saturday to Saturday night and then over the Southeastern Conus through Sunday into Sunday night. The upper trough initially extending into the Mid Atlantic states shifts to the northeast and to the Maritimes while the upper trough initially over western Canada to the Northwest moves east to Manitoba to the Northern and Central Plains. A ridge of sfc high pressure initially from the eastern Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley gradually shifts off the Northeast U.S Coast to the Southern Appalachians and become centered over the Southern Plains by late Sunday night. Further west and northwest an area of low pressure should trek near the US Canadian border with a warm front lifting toward the Lower OH Valley late Sunday into Sunday night. This scenario would favor mainly dry weather with the potential for moderate ridge/valley splits with highs near normal to as much as 5 degrees above normal.

Monday to Tuesday, upper level ridging should extend from the Southern Plains across the Southern Plains to portions of the Atlantic. The shortwave moving from Manitoba to Ontario and near the Quebec border and also crossing the Great Lakes and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. The associated sfc system should pass well to the north while a frontal zone/baroclinic zone should be over or near eastern KY. Temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s would support marginal to moderate instability each afternoon and mainly diurnally driven convection.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026

There will be the potential for valley fog overnight. Have MVFR vsbys in at KLOZ and KSME. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Dry conditions are expected with just some VFR cu. Winds will be light and around 5 knots or less.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.