textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The approach of a strong cold front Sunday night will bring a possibility of strong thunderstorms, followed by a potential of snow with light accumulations behind the front Monday afternoon and evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 1051 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026

Temperatures are warming rapidly under partly to mostly sunny skies and were running above the hourly forecast. With dry air in place and ongoing strong sensible heating, the afternoon maximum temperature forecast was raised to the upper 50s to near 60F north of I-64 and to around 70F in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. The mild temperatures combined with light winds will yield a delightful early spring afternoon across the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields and adjacent regions.

UPDATE Issued at 747 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026

Updated the forecast with the latest observational data from around the are. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast. Dew points were slightly lower than the current forecast. Decided to go with the 5th percentile of the NBM through 12Z Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 523 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026

The period will start with a sharp, high amplitude trough punching southeast over the middle of the CONUS, and a northeast moving, intense, surface low near Chicago. The system's cold front will extend south and southwest from the low and will be moving east through the JKL forecast area very late Sunday night and early on Monday. Weak instability at best is expected along and ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings look capped to convection until perhaps right at fropa, with forcing along the front giving a potential for a line of showers/thunderstorms. If convection can be generated from marginal instability, shear looks to be extremely strong and SPC has placed the forecast area in a marginal (east) to slight (west) risk for severe weather. Our prefrontal low level flow over the eastern portion of the forecast area also looks to be downslope off the southern Appalachians, which could limit moisture (and instability) before fropa. After fropa, a period of stratiform precip should set in.

Low temperatures Sunday night and highs on Monday still look problematic due to a tight temperature gradient expected to be across the forecast area at the start of the day on Monday, with only slight differences in frontal timing having a potential for significant differences in lows/highs. NBM lows/highs for that time period did not look realistic and a blend of the 00Z GFS and NAM was used to derive the values from the hourly forecast. After the initial sharp drop in temperatures behind the front, readings for the remainder of the day on Monday should be near steady or slowly falling. This will allow any precip which holds on long enough to change to snow and then snow showers as upper level moisture is lost and low level lapse rates steepen in upslope cold air advection. Some light accumulation is possible, especially for higher elevations in southeast KY. However, it would be limited in most of the area by marginal temperatures and warm ground. Continued advection of colder and much drier air into the region from the northwest will taper snow showers down to flurries on Monday night. Reading in the upper teens to around 20 by Tuesday morning will be harsh for any early flowers/blossoms present after our plentiful warm weather of the last couple of weeks.

The departing system will leave behind a generalized eastern CONUS upper trough and western CONUS ridge for mid to late week, with northwest flow over our area. After surface high pressure passes through Tuesday night, milder temperatures should return. A couple of weak weather systems should cross through the Midwest mid to late week and could bring some precip to our area. However, under northwest flow aloft there won't be strong moisture return, and the POP looks low and any precip amounts light.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 727 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable through the day, but generally veering to a southerly direction around 06Z. Some mid to high level cloud cover may pass through the area, with little to no impact. There may be LLWS out of the south at all terminals towards the end of the TAF period (05-14Z Sunday), however confidence was low that winds below 2Kft would be strong enough, so it was left out of the TAFs.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.