textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain transitions to snow showers by early this evening as a pair of cold fronts cross the region. Expect a sharp drop in temperatures behind the second front.

- Snow showers and brief squalls tonight may cause sudden, low visibility and slick roads this evening into Thursday morning. Accumulations of one inch or less are likely for most, with higher amounts in the mountains.

- More persistent snow showers yielding one to two inches of accumulation are expected in Pike, Harlan, and Letcher counties through Thursday morning. Totals of three to seven inches are possible on Big Black Mountain.

- Additional light snow is possible Friday through the weekend as more waves of arctic air move into the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 1111 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026

The greatest concentration of snow showers has moved east southeast throught the center of the forecast area this evening. Based on a report on the edge of the this enhanced precip, it's likely that a half inch to inch of snow occurred in this band. The enhancement is beginning to move into VA now. Although additional snow showers can be expected, especially in southeast KY, there should be an overall decline in activity for most of the area overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026

Remaining precip has changed to snow for all places except perhaps valley locations in extreme eastern KY. Even there that should change shortly. Temps have cooled slightly faster than was forecast. This has resulted in very slightly higher forecast snowfall totals for some places in southeast KY, but nothing which has any meaningful effect on the overall forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 216 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026

The forecast period begins with transitory quasi-zonal flow and slight ridging between two shortwave troughs. The leading trough is expected to shift east as the subsequent trough digs southeastward through the central CONUS. A closed circulation, positioned within the left exit region of an embedded jet streak, will support a surface low over the western Great Lakes. Through Friday, this feature will eject eastward, dragging a cold front toward the region.

Initial forecast soundings indicate profiles cold enough for snow; however, diurnal warming and low-level southwesterly flow should maintain rain at the onset. As temperatures fall and flow veers westerly Friday night into Saturday, the thermal profile will cool sufficiently to support a transition to snow. Fortunately, the lack of a prominent warm nose or significant warm-air intrusion simplifies precipitation types, resulting in a transition from rain to a rain-snow mix, and finally to all snow by Saturday morning. Light snow showers will persist through Saturday, with minor accumulations likely. While an SPS may suffice for most areas, a Winter Weather Advisory may be required for the higher terrain along the Virginia border.

As the system departs late Sunday, cold surface high pressure will build into the region, ushering in more seasonal temperatures through the end of the period. While the extended forecast remains largely quiet for eastern Kentucky, deterministic guidance suggests a Noreaster will develop and phase with the primary system off the North Carolina coast on Sunday. In the wake of this circulation, brief southwesterly flow will allow for a slight recovery in temperatures on Monday. However, a disturbance tracking through the Great Lakes late Monday into Tuesday will shunt the coastal system further out to sea and bring a resurgence of cold, dry air for the remainder of the week.

Overall, the active period features a series of passing disturbances followed by a return to seasonal averages. The initial system will bring rain Friday before transitioning to light accumulating snow. Behind this departing low, surface high pressure will dominate, maintaining dry and seasonal conditions through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 725 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026

Steady precip was just about to exit extreme eastern KY at the start of the period, which will leave only showers lasting into the night area wide. Most places have already seen the precip type change to snow. An exception is perhaps the valleys in extreme eastern KY, but even there the change will happen very soon. Conditions were a combo of VFR and MVFR for almost all places, with the possible exception of very isolated IFR or worse in the heaviest snow showers.

The snow showers will last into the night, with the the heaviest showers continuing to bring localized IFR or worse conditions. The showers will start to taper off late tonight, with activity becoming less and less overnight and on Saturday. The longest persistence of snow showers should be in southeast KY. Outside of the heaviest snow showers largely MVFR conditions (due to ceilings) are expected until late tonight, except for the far southwest portions of the forecast area, where there is a better shot at mainly VFR conditions. Overnight, ceiling heights should rise and give way to mainly VFR conditions outside of snow showers.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ088-118- 120.