textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will last into Friday, with some places potentially topping 70 degrees today.

- Multiple rounds of rain showers are likely today and tonight, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe today and tonight with damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes possible.

- Much colder air arrives this weekend and lingers into early next week.

- Snow showers are possible on Sunday into Monday, but only minor accumulations are forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 816 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026

The most widespread convection is lifting north of the Mountain Parkway at update time while additional isolated convection is noted further upstream over southcentral Kentucky and Tennessee. The big question remains how much instability is able to develop over the area today. The most recent RAP and HRRR guidance is hinting at the potential for messier, weak convection to develop in a mostly uncapped environment and limit destabilization -- but the fuller 12Z suite is still being processed.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 359 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026

At the open of the extended period, a frontal passage that had moved through Kentucky earlier Friday, is modeled to stall over the Southeast US. Upper level convergence will set up across the Tennessee Valley in the wake of another low pressure system that develops within a baroclinic zone Friday night. This could lead to isolated to scattered showers overnight, heading into Saturday. Winds will be light, but gradually veer to a northerly direction by Saturday morning. Morning temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Saturday, isolated to scattered showers may be possible across the Southeast, as some vorticity lobs work through Tennessee and Southern Kentucky early Saturday morning. Saturday evening, the first in a series of quick moving upper level lows will come through the Upper Mississippi Valley, Southeast into the Ohio River Valley. This will allow for colder air to work south. Precipitation will start out as rain, with temperatures Saturday reaching the low 50, to near 60, from north to south. However, northerly winds through the day and evening will usher in colder air, dropping temperatures into the lower 30s for most. Rain will likely change over to a rain- snow mix before snow showers continue through Sunday. Temperatures remain in the upper 30s to low 40s through Sunday.

Sunday evening, the trough digs further south, with the second quick hitting upper level low follows the same track, which is modeled to produce light snow showers across far eastern Kentucky through Sunday night, tapering off Monday afternoon. This secondary upper level low also reinforces colder air across the area. Temperatures drop into the mid 20s Sunday night.

Monday, the area resides under an upper-level trough. Temperatures remain in the 30s through the day, but the trough axis begins to progress east of the area. CAA along with clearing skies at night will allow for temperatures to plummet into the teens for much of the area.

Tuesday, with the influence of the upper level trough further removed, heights begin to rise again, as weak ridging builds into Eastern Kentucky. Tuesday temperatures warm into the low to mid 40s. Clouds should begin to increase heading into the evening as the next system that could give the area precipitation moves into the Great Lakes area. Temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 20s Tuesday night, before warming into the low 50s, on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 740 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026

Mostly MVFR conditions with pockets of IFR or worse near/north of I-64 prevailed at TAF issuance. Gradual improvement to MVFR is expected areawide by 17Z as a warm frontal boundary pushes through the area, taking the more persistent showers/thunderstorms and fog with it. After a lull in the convection around midday, scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and linger into the evening before diminishing once again and potentially allowing for a period of VFR. A pre-frontal trough may bring more organized showers and possible thunderstorms in the form of a QLCS between 4Z and 10Z Friday. Winds will become southwesterly at 5 to 10 kts today with gusts up to 20 kts, veering westerly tonight. Winds could be much stronger and erratic near thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.