textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through today. Latest forecasts anticipates near-record or record temperatures at both London and Jackson today.

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for all of eastern Kentucky for this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the primary severe threats.

- Torrential downpours, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and wind gusts outside of storms between 30 and 40 mph are also possible.

- After a sharp cooldown behind a cold front on Thursday, mild temperatures return for Friday into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 522 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

Convection has a been a bit slow to get going overnight so far, but new upstream activity is starting to develop to the west and southwest under the low-level jet core. This makes for a somewhat uncertain PoP forecast through the morning as this activity approaches or brushes the area to the northwest. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track for later today.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 514 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

At the open of the long term period (Thursday evening), high pressure builds into the area. Backing winds go from light westerly winds early in the evening, to southerly winds through the night. With light southerly winds overnight, and mostly clear skies, low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s in sheltered hollows and valley locations. Elsewhere, temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are expected along ridgetops.

An upper level low strengthens in the Dakotas and digs into the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. A strong 70-75 knot 850-mb LLJ will pass through the Ohio Valley during the day. This will lead to strong southwest winds with the potential for strong wind gusts. 12Z LREF ensemble guidance shows the forecast area along and north of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor with a 90% or greater chance of seeing gusts of 35 mph, while still maintaining a 70% or greater chance of 40 mph gusts across the same area. A model BUFKIT sounding for Jackson shows momentum transfer of 35-40 kts (approximately 40-45 mph). This same model sounding for Morehead, closer to the core of the LLJ, shows momentum transfer of 43 kts (close to 50 mph). Wind gusts for Friday mid-morning through the afternoon were adjusted up using a 75/25 blend of the 90th percentile NBM with itself. Budding trees and vegetation drawing water from the ground along with drier air moving into the area will create elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Afternoon dew points were adjusted downward using a blend of the 5th and 10th percentile from the NBM. This yields dew points in the low 20s, and RH values ranging from the low to mid 30s near the I-75 corridor, to RH's in the upper teens and low 20s farther east. With strong southwest winds through the afternoon, temperatures will climb into the upper 50s in the north to mid 60s further south. Friday evening, light westerly winds will veer to northeasterly by Saturday morning. Dry conditions continue, with temperatures dropping into the 30s.

Saturday, remains quiet, with light easterly winds and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to upper 60s north to south. Saturday evening a trough begins to develop in the Northern Rockies and digs into the Central Plains early Sunday. A warm front will be just north of the state, in the Ohio Valley. Being in the warm sector, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s. Winds may be breezy to gusty, with LREF probabilities of seeing gusts of at least 35 mph are generally around or north of 75%. Later Sunday evening into early Monday, the approaching systems cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky, leading to another round of showers and thunderstorms. As the trough axis digs south over Kentucky Sunday night, temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s which will lead to a wintry rain-snow mix.

Monday, as the trough begins to lift northeast, snow showers will taper off through the day, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 40s across the area. Although the low and trough are departing to the east, the area will still be under northwest flow. allowing cold air to advect in. As it does, temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s area wide Monday night. An embedded shortwave ejects out of the Northern Rockies which may bring another shot of active weather mid week. At this time Tuesday looks to remain dry through most of the day. Temperatures remain in the upper 30s to low 40s through Tuesday, dropping into the mid to upper 20s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

While conditions are VFR across the area at issuance, shower and potential thunderstorm chances spread from southwest to northeast the remainder of the overnight into the daytime hours Wednesday as a low level jet strengthens and builds into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. With this TAF package, the decision was made to back off some of the more pessimistic cigs and conditions for the remainder of the overnight into the early morning at some sites, but are covered by PROB30 groups heading into the post-dawn and late morning hours. Conditions deteriorate to low-MVFR and likely lower as a strong cold front moves across the area late this afternoon into the evening, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a threat for a few severe storms to bring damaging winds and large hail. Winds will also abruptly shift to a northwesterly direction.

Before the cold frontal arrival later today, expect southwesterly winds to gust to 20 to 25 kts after sunrise, then strengthen further this afternoon for all terminals, with peak gusts nearing 35 kts especially for western and northern terminals.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060.