textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through today. Latest forecasts anticipates near-record or record temperatures at both London and Jackson today.

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for all of eastern Kentucky for this afternoon and evening, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes the primary severe threats.

- Torrential downpours, hail up to 1 inch in diameter, and wind gusts outside of storms between 30 and 40 mph are also possible.

- After a sharp cooldown behind a cold front on Thursday, mild temperatures return for Friday into the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 420 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

The period is expected to begin with a mid and upper level trough extending from the Hudson and James Bay vicinities/parts of Ontario and Quebec south across the Great Lakes to the OH Valley to the Lower MS Valley while an upper level ridge is expected to be centered west/southwest of the CA coast. Between that ridge and the trough from Canada into the eastern Conus, broad west northwest flow should extend from parts of the eastern Pacific across the western Conus and into the Central Conus. Also as the period begins, a sfc area of low pressure is expected to be centered in the St Lawrence Valley to a triple point in ME and then a wavy front south and southwest to southeastern VA to the Carolinas to FL panhandle to Gulf. Behind that a sfc ridge of high pressure centered in the Southern Plains should extend into the mid MS to Lower OH Valley.

Limited moisture main rain near the VA border behind the front and the low level flow should have a northwest to north upslope component. This could support a bit of light rain or drizzle in the far southeast and at least lingering stratocu is anticipated. The north to northwest flow with some gusts up to near 20 mph around the sfc ridge that should eventually shift to the Central/Southern Appalachians to southeast TX area on Thu evening and southeast of the area later that night will support colder and drier air advecting into eastern KY. The drying may be rather quick in some areas pending final QPE as much of the vegetation is starting to take in water and the airmass should have 1000-500 mb mean layer rh of 20 to 30 percent if not lower and mean PW falls on Thu per the 12Z LREF to on the order of 0.10 to 0.20 inches of about the 5th to 15th percentile. Thus, a clearing trend is expected and with March sunshine for the afternoon, afternoon min RH for Thu should reach the 25 to 35 percent range.

The departing sfc high and approach of an other system in northwest flow that treks from BC and Alberta to the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes Thursday to Friday will set the stage for developing return flow on the ridges Thursday night and a moderate ridge valley split in southeastern portions of the area assuming typical March/Spring valley decoupling. This return flow following the mixing out of the nocturnal inversion should lead to south winds becoming more southwest on Friday into at least the 10 to 15 mph range for much of the area and as high as 10 to 20 mph in the far west. Gusts should at least reach near 25 mph, with recent GFS runs suggesting gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph. The NBM deterministic winds and gusts were increased as they were on Thursday following the nocturnal inversion mixing out with the approach of a dry cold front. It is conceivable that winds on Friday are not strong enough, and critical or near critical winds and RH may be approached in the southeastern portions of the area. Fuels would be a bit in question there with status pending QPE and how quick things dry out on Thursday.

The shortwave trough/upper low in the Great Lakes vicinity late Friday moves into Quebec and the Northeast/St Lawrence Valley for Fri night and eventually Maritimes to start the weekend with the dry cold front crossing the area late Fri into Fri evening. Another sfc high builds in behind that as a broad upper trough lingers from Canada into the Great Lakes/portions of the eastern Conus downstream of northwest flow continuing from the Pacific across southwest Canada and the western Conus to the Central Conus late Friday/Friday evening. The pattern takes on a bit more zonal flavor for Saturday, before guidance generally has a trough developing over the Plains/Central Conus to end the weekend. That trough is progged to gradually move into the eastern Conus Sunday night Monday and remain through Tuesday though the axis of the trough may shift east of eastern KY by the end of the period. An associated sfc system should track from the Plains to the Great Lakes later Saturday into Sunday and Sunday night and then eventually Quebec and the Maritimes and send another strong cold front across eastern KY Sunday evening/Sunday night.

The late weekend cold front and associated trough will bring the next chance for precipitation by late Sunday afternoon/evening to Monday night. Much colder air moves in behind the front, and 850 mb temperatures should fall to near if not below 0C around sunrise on Monday morning. Both the recent LREF means and operational guidance support this and cold air advection continues through the day on Monday and 850 mb temperatures fall toward if not below about -10C through Monday evening. If sufficient low level moisture exists, upslope flow and steep lapse rates support continued shower chances in the form of rain and snow from late Sunday night in the west and areawide Monday to Monday evening. Temperatures may struggle to climb above 40 degrees during the daylight hours on Monday in many locations. Some moderation in temperatures follows for Tuesday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026

While conditions are VFR across the area at issuance, shower and potential thunderstorm chances spread from southwest to northeast the remainder of the overnight into the daytime hours Wednesday as a low level jet strengthens and builds into the region ahead of an approaching cold front. With this TAF package, the decision was made to back off some of the more pessimistic cigs and conditions for the remainder of the overnight into the early morning at some sites, but are covered by PROB30 groups heading into the post-dawn and late morning hours. Conditions deteriorate to low-MVFR and likely lower as a strong cold front moves across the area late this afternoon into the evening, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a threat for a few severe storms to bring damaging winds and large hail. Winds will also abruptly shift to a northwesterly direction.

Before the cold frontal arrival later today, expect southwesterly winds to gust to 20 to 25 kts after sunrise, then strengthen further this afternoon for all terminals, with peak gusts nearing 35 kts especially for western and northern terminals.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060.