textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers are likely into the morning, with a few thunderstorms possible as a weakening cold front and a couple of minor waves pass today.

- A stronger system brings another chance for widespread showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday, but the severe weather potential is still uncertain for most of eastern Kentucky with points west of the area more prone to seeing the stronger storms.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Sunday evening into Monday will generally be quiet for Eastern Kentucky, as the surrounding area sees rising heights from a building ridge over the Ohio Valley. Clear skies and light winds Sunday night will lead to ridge valley splits in temperatures. Ridges will likely cool into the low 50s while colder valleys decouple into the low to mid 40s.

Monday, Eastern Kentucky will sneak in a nice day ahead of the next approaching system, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs around the lower 80s. Through Monday, a surface low in the Central Plains will propagate northeast into the Upper Midwest. A surface warm front will slowly encroach into the area from the southwest. Later Monday, now looking well into the overnight, showers and thunderstorms will move across Kentucky ahead of an approaching cold front. This comes as the trough becomes negatively titled. Latest models and ensembles have been slowing the progression of the cold front across Kentucky. With the latest model runs, the systems cold front may progress through Eastern Kentucky sometime Tuesday. This is important to note due to the slowed progression, storm environment may be more suitable for severe weather Tuesday afternoon. With MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH in the 150-250 m2/s2 range, model trends should be watched. In lieu of the latest model trends, showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday.

Model spread increases beyond the frontal passage, Tuesday. However, looking at the WPC's cluster mean 24-hr 500 mb heights and anomalies, 100 ensemble runs including those from the Canadian, GFS, and European favor troughing of some degree over the Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. This will trend temperatures cooler towards the end of the week, and beginning of May.

A series of shortwaves could propagate through the Great Lakes upper level low through the end of the period, which would lead to a continued pattern of unsettled weather and additional shower and storm chances. Given this potential, precipitation will be possible through the remainder of the long term period. However, details of this forecast remain unclear at this time, and confidence in PoPs is very low on any given day.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

While VFR conditions begin the period showers and possibly a few isolated storms are moving deeper into the area from the west. With this ceilings lower to MVFR or IFR for most locations away from nearer the Virginia border by 12Z. With a cold front working across the area from north to south in the afternoon, MVFR or IFR ceilings can be anticipated into the daytime hours before gradual improvements in the afternoon, for many areas.

Winds will be rather light and variable winds through the period, though some stronger gusts are possible in and around convection.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.