textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Persistent and breezy southwesterly winds will continue advecting a warmer-than-average and seasonably moist air mass into eastern Kentucky through the remainder of the work week.

- Expect several consecutive days with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and mild overnight temperatures bottoming in the 50s and 60s. - Expect daily chances for showers and storms until a stronger cold front moves through the region later this weekend.

- Those showers and storms will produce some needed rainfall across the forecast area.

- A few stronger storms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds from late this morning through the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026

At the open of the long term period two shortwaves,located in the Pacific Northwest, and just east of the Rockies, will account for the bulk of the active weather over CONUS in the upcoming week. Models are in fairly good agreement of the Rockies shortwave progressing northeast into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes regions through Thursday. By Thursday evening, showers and thunderstorms will likely occupy the skies over the Mississippi Valley. For Eastern Kentucky, increasing clouds will likely be observed through Thursday night getting towards Friday morning, as these showers and storms get closer to the area. With light southerly winds and somewhat clear skies prior to midnight, conditions look favorable for ridge- valley splits in the eastern hollows and valleys. Lows generally range from the upper 50s to low 60s in eastern valleys and hollows, and mid to upper 60s in western valleys and ridge tops.

Friday, the cold front off to the west never progresses east into our area. Instead, Eastern Kentucky remains in the warm sector with consistent southwesterly flow bringing moist warm air into the region. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s, with continued chances of off and on showers and thunderstorms. As this unfolds the other shortwave, previously in the Pacific Northwest, progresses southeast into the Northern and Central High Plains before deepening over the Northern Plains. Friday night, temperatures will be similar to Thursday night, with a ridge-valley split in eastern hollows and valleys dropping temperatures into the upper 50s, while western valleys and ridge-tops cool into the low to mid 60s.

Heading into Saturday, as the second system strengthens, its a trailing cold front extending from Illinois through the Mississippi Valley, back into Arkansas and Texas will slowly work into the Ohio and Tennessee valley through the day producing showers and thunderstorms through the evening and overnight hours. Southwest flow ahead of this cold front will continue to bring warm moist air into the area leading to temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s. Overnight, winds will become west to northwest ushering in colder air. Lows temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will mark the start of cooler and slightly below normal temperatures.

Models begin to vary on timing of the frontal passage as the occluded low moves off into Quebec. Some models have it Saturday night, other during the day Sunday. regardless, showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage until east of the area. temperatures Sunday through Tuesday generally remain in the upper 50s to low 60s near the Bluegrass, and low to mid 60s further south and east. At night, lows drop into the mid to upper 30s

On the back side of a departing trough and northerly flow, dew points will drop off sharply Monday and Tuesday afternoon. While winds remain light, RH's will approach critical conditions.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites at the 06Z issuance early this morning. Expect a period of quiet aviation weather through the rest of the night, but a weather system approaching from the northwest should yield an increase and thickening of midlevel clouds along with a rising chance for precipitation, including thunderstorm chances, towards daybreak and continuing into the daytime hours where thunder potential is maximized. This convection will pose a risk for MVFR or worse conditions. Strong and erratic wind gusts are also possible near convection as well, especially after 18Z. Otherwise, winds will be from the southwest at 5 to 10 kt with occasional gusts at up to 20 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.