textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights holds through the end of the week.

- Confidence in increasing for rain chances this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 905 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026

Have blended satellite obs into the morning forecast to approximate the initial extent of fog/low clouds which will dissipate. Also slowed the temperature rise where the fog/low clouds are most prevalent.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 302 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026

The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered off the southwest U.S coast, with an upper low centered in the Hudson Bay vicinity and a trough extending into the Upper MS Valley and parts of the Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure should extend from the Southern Appalachians into the Atlantic, while a sfc front in advance of troughing extending into the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes should extend into northern MI to the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a lingering frontal zone should extend across portions of the Gulf.

Wednesday to Thursday night, the upper low in Canada is progged to become centered in portions of Quebec, while the associated shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday night, and across portions of the OH Valley on Thursday. Further west, upper ridging should become centered in the Pacific to the west and southwest of Baja, with ridging continuing to extend into the western CONUS. Downstream, by late Thursday night, a 500-mb trough axis is anticipated from Quebec into the eastern Great Lakes to Central to Southern Appalachians. Guidance generally also has a weak upper low in or near TX by Thursday night and guidance (which now includes the GFS, AI-GFS, ECMWF, and AI-ECMWF and many of their ensembles) also points toward possible tropical system formation potentially as early as this time frame or at least a sfc low somewhere in the central to southwestern Gulf. Sfc low pressure in advance of the upper low in Canada and its associated shortwave should move across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but the southern end will likely become ill- defined or diffuse as it approaches the OH Valley. A ridge of sfc high pressure should generally remain through this period in the southern to central Appalachians with a trend of 500 mb height rises over the northern portions of the Gulf states into the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians by later Thursday night.

For eastern KY, the pattern should favor a moderation in high temperatures beginning Wednesday, and a ridge/valley temperature split for Wednesday night and probably Thursday night as well. Overnight lows should tend to moderate as sfc dewpoints inch upward compared to earlier in the week, but valley fog should continue to be a feature each night with ridging generally dominating. The weakening front and passing shortwave could lead to a bit more cloud cover later Wednesday night into Thursday morning than currently reflected in sky grids.

Friday to Saturday night, a narrow upper ridge axis that shifts north is progged by recent GFS and ECMWF runs to be situated from the Carolinas across the southern Appalachians to near the confluence of the OH and TN Rivers for Friday to Friday night while an upper low becomes centered in the Arklatex vicinity by later Friday night or early Saturday. At that point, moisture should begin to or have spread to near the Gulf Coast or into the Gulf coast states and eventually north into the Southern Appalachians and TN Valley and possibly into the Lower OH Valley by later Saturday or Saturday night pending the evolution of a potential tropical system in the Gulf, while the upper low may move to near the mid MS Valley vicinity by late Saturday night. Guidance has uncertainty with the strength of this system with the 12Z operational GFS run stronger than the 06Z GFS run or the last two operational ECMWF runs. Additional 18z and 00z continue to increase confidence in a potential tropical system and parent low moving north or northeast toward, and possibly through, the TN and OH Valley regions. It should be pointed out, however, that even though guidance is showing this as an increasing possibility, experience and wisdom suggests waiting to see when or even if an organized system actually develops in the Gulf within the expected time frame and its potential feedback with the developing parent low. However given recent model trends would expect the current ~45 to 50% PoPs arriving Saturday night into Sunday may increase to near or above 60% with the next forecast package.

By Monday, much of the guidance has the parent low and much of the moisture tracking east of the area, with upper ridging and height rises around or near the end of the period just upstream over the MS Valley.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026

Valley fog will burn off by 14z-15z, with clear skies otherwise until valley fog develops again tonight, generally from southeast to northwest. This fog is not expected to impact any terminals. VFR conditions will prevail outside of valley fog.

Winds will be light through the period, generally from an east to northeast direction initially but gradually becoming more southerly by the end of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.