textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal today. A strong cold front will then bring widespread showers and the possibility of a few thunderstorms on Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front for the weekend, bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures by Saturday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1226 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

Much of the showers have moved out of the warning area with the last little bit near Martin and Pike counties. A mix of sun and clouds are expected through the remainder of the day. The forecast was updated with the latest weather observations and data from across the area. No major changes were made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 800 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

A cluster of convection, associated with an upper level disturbance, is dropping southeast into northern Kentucky as the sun rises across eastern Kentucky. However, it will be moving into an instability-starved environment so an overall weakening trend is expected -- this is supported by recent CAMs. The best chance for measurable rainfall will be near/north of the Mountain Parkway. Expect the shower activity to depart/dissipate over far eastern Kentucky by around 19Z.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 428 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

The forecast period begins late Friday evening with the CWA situated on the backside of a departing cold front as surface high pressure builds in from the north. Beginning from northwest to southeast, clearing skies and post-frontal cold air advection will allow temperatures to drop toward freezing. This supports the potential for frost development, particularly in sheltered valleys. This threat has been highlighted in the HWO for the last few days, and there is potential for frost headlines Friday night into Saturday morning as the growing season is underway.

Surface high pressure will remain the dominant synoptic feature through the weekend. Persistent northerly flow will maintain CAA on the backside of the departing system, keeping Saturday cool with highs ranging from the lower 50s in the Bluegrass to the upper 50s near the Tennessee border. Low-level flow will shift southerly by Sunday, allowing temperatures to warm with highs running about 10 degrees warmer than Saturday.

Beginning Monday, a series of shortwaves will traverse the CONUS, introducing isolated to scattered PoPs starting Monday afternoon and continuing through the end of the period. Temperatures will trend above seasonal averages during this timeframe, with highs eventually climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Tuesday and persisting through Wednesday and Thursday.

In summary, the forecast period is characterized by the arrival of surface high pressure for the weekend. Temperatures will start below normal but will trend significantly warmer, reaching the 80s by the middle of next week. Model consensus indicates a return to an active convective pattern for the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the TAF period with just some isolated sprinkles near the US-23 corridor. A more substantive cluster of showers with a little embedded thunder was noted upstream moving into northern Kentucky. Expectation is that this activity will impact areas generally north of KRGA-KJKL-KPBX through the morning and linger in the early afternoon over far eastern terminals like SJS. This activity has been covered with PROB30 groups and could lead to scattered sub-VFR conditions. Once the precipitation ends, clouds will decrease. This will allow more effective warming and mixing of the lower atmosphere, which will result in increasing southwesterly winds with gusts of 20-30 kts over northern terminals. The winds should pick up sooner south of the precipitation as diurnal heating won't be delayed by rainfall.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.