textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized heavy rainfall may occur with showers & thunderstorms through the evening.

- Wet weather will last through most of the upcoming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 712 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Convective coverage remains unremarkable and scattered this evening. Still can't rule out minor flooding if activity became particularly persistent in a given location, but the threat of flash flooding is too low to retain the Flood Watch and it has been cancelled early.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

The forecast period starts with a surface low moving eastward out of the Ohio Valley. This surface low is progged to drag a cold front through the area first thing Monday morning. This will provide showers and storms early in the day, followed by a lull in activity for the afternoon. However, by late afternoon, a surface wave moving through the Deep South is forecast to eject north and lift a warm front through the CWA. Showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage Monday afternoon and persist through the overnight hours before the front stalls as a stationary boundary, oriented west to east across the Commonwealth for Tuesday.

This wavering boundary is forecast to stall Tuesday and remain the focus for shower and thunderstorm development throughout most of next week. Forecast PWs, driven by stout moisture advection, alongside skinny CAPE soundings, continue to hint at efficient rainfall production along this boundary. This supports a forecast total QPF ranging from over 1.25 inches in the Bluegrass/I-64 corridor to up to 2.00 inches farther south toward the Tennessee border. These numbers will certainly fluctuate depending on convective activity and where mesoscale bands or heavier rainfall set up. However, long-term guidance does hint at a breakdown of this wet and stormy pattern late in the week as the stationary front drops south as a cold front, bringing an end to the precipitation. Lastly, temperatures are forecast to remain rather seasonal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Once the front sags south, temperatures will cool a few degrees, with lows dropping into the 50s.

In summary, an active and unsettled weather pattern will dominate the region into next week as a stationary boundary stalls across the Commonwealth. Seasonal temperatures will remain overhead, but persistent rainfall, which will be heavy at times, could bring an increasing threat for river and flash flooding.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

Conditions were primarily VFR at TAF issuance outside any ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of this activity should generally become isolated overnight. However, showers could still occur at about any time through the night. The showers/thunderstorms will cause localized reductions below VFR. Fog is possible overnight at any of the terminals as well but extent is unclear due to lingering cloud cover. An increase in showers/thunderstorms is forecast on Sunday, with renewed flight category reductions. However, forecast confidence on Sunday is only modest.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.