textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of rain showers continue through Saturday morning as a series of fronts move through the region. A few thunderstorms are also possible through tonight.

- Active weather continues into next week, with a strong cold front expected to cross the Commonwealth by mid-week.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will move into the region for the start of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 537 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

The beginning of the long term forecast period is marked by a brief return to drier weather, although the overarching pattern looks to remain active next week. On Sunday, a post frontal high pressure system will propagate east across the forecast area as ridging slowly builds in aloft by Monday. Thus, drier weather and sunnier skies are expected towards the beginning of the period. Sunday's temperatures look slightly cooler than Monday's, largely due to the continued advection of a continental airmass into the region via west-northwesterly flow. Expect highs in the upper 50s/near 60 on Sunday before modest amounts of warm/moist air advection begin aloft late on Sunday night. Guidance collectively resolves increasing high/mid level clouds around this time frame, so the more prominent ridge/valley low temperature splits were limited to the shadier valleys of NE KY. There, a few of the conventional cold spots could approach freezing, but Sunday night's MinTs are generally in the mid to upper 30s. After sunrise, veering surface winds and midlevel height rises favor widespread afternoon highs above 60 degrees. The ridge axis should be directly overhead by Monday afternoon, setting the stage for a return to active weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain chances are forecast to increase on Monday night as a mid-level shortwave trough ejects out of the Great Plains and into the Upper Midwest. A related warm front will lift north into the forecast area as this ejection occurs, although the deamplification of the initial wave will lead to it stalling out in our vicinity on Tuesday. This leads to a rather wet and mild sensible weather forecast on Tuesday, with AM lows in the upper 40s, PM highs in the mid 60s, and widespread rain chances. A second midlevel disturbance will dig into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, and this one is likely to evolve into a vertically-stacked closed low. Guidance disagrees on the exact positioning and magnitude of this feature, but agrees that a deeper longwave troughing pattern will emerge over much of the Eastern CONUS for Wednesday and beyond. This signals the potential for a stronger cold front to sweep through the Commonwealth on Wednesday, although the exact timing of this remains uncertain. This leads to some uncertainty in Wednesday's forecast highs, but ahead of the boundary, widespread rain chances will persist. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out given the frontal forcing, but s severe weather remains highly unlikely. The currently-available model soundings are unimpressive, and the (marginally) better LREF joint probabilities for favorable instability/shear parameters are confined to the south in the Gulf Coast states.

Once the cold front passes through, colder -- and drier -- air will advect into the forecast area. The NBM continues to try to paint some type of winter precipitation in the grids late on Wednesday night as temperatures drop, but this appears to be more of a grid artifact than a true meteorological possibility. Cyclonic flow will remain in the mid/upper levels in this time frame, but at the surface, a post frontal-high will be nudging its way in. Thus, Thanksgiving looks to be a seasonably cool and mostly clear day in Eastern Kentucky. Much of the area is poised to wake up to temperatures near/below freezing on Thursday morning, but afternoon highs should warm to the mid 40s. These cooler conditions will continue into Friday, when some forecast guidance resolves a clipper- type system moving into the Greater Ohio River Valley. Eastern Kentucky currently looks to be on the warmer side of that system, with limited amounts of available atmospheric moisture. Thus, widespread wintery precipitation appears unlikely at any point in this particular long term forecast package. The extended-range guidance has actually trended milder for the end of November and the very beginning of December here in the Commonwealth. The CPC's latest 8-14 day temperature and hazards outlooks have been adjusted accordingly, and there is no longer a risk for heavy snow across any part of Kentucky in this time frame.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025

As a warm front continues to lift north across the region, VFR was reported near the TN border and Lake Cumberland MFR, IFR, and LIFR was reported in areas nearer to and north of the warm front. Areas of showers also continue moving east northeast across the region. Some improvements to IFR/MVFR with a continuation of VFR or MVFR near KSME with that spreading toward KLOZ is forecast over the first 6 to 9 hours of the period. However, as the boundary returns south as a warm front, a decrease back to LIFR and IFR is anticipated by around 06Z in all areas. Improvement back to or a continuation of IFR is anticipated during the last 6 hours of the period as the boundary sags south of eastern KY. Light and variable winds will generally prevail, though there would be some gusty and erratic winds with any thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.