textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder and drier air will arrive as we move into the weekend, and persist well into next week. - Frost is expected this weekend, with freezing temperatures also possible. The coldest conditions will be in the valleys early in the mornings on Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 610 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2026

The long wave pattern will be amplifying through the extended forecast period. A parade of northern stream energy will maintain broader cyclonic flow over southeastern Canada and New England into early next week. A deep trough will then be nearing the West Coast from the eastern Pacific through the middle of next week. This allows for sharper ridging to take shape across the Continental Divide, with an expansive and deep trough evolving east of the Plains, bringing well below normal temperatures to most locations east of the Mississippi River after Wednesday.

Drier weather will hold on through Wednesday, with temperatures gradually moderating through Tuesday. Overnight lows will average around 30 degrees in our most sheltered valleys Sunday night, given the clear skies and light winds in place. The blended guidance continues to be bullish with the lows west of I-75, but modifications were made to align more with the COOP MOS trends and what we typically see, given this pattern. Highs will be moderating from the upper 50s to lower 60s on Sunday, to mid and upper 60s by Tuesday. Lows will also follow suit, with widening ridge/valley splits heading into Wednesday morning. A cold front will pass through Wednesday into Wednesday night, but moisture looks limited, so mainly an increase in cloud cover is expected. As 500 mb heights lower across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through Friday, some bouts of moisture in low level northwest flow may allow for some light shower activity at times.

Temperatures will be the bigger story, with highs retreating to the lower and middle 50s by Friday. While confidence is lower on the details this far out, whatever locations that miss out on the freezing temperatures this weekend, will likely not be able to avoid seeing freezing temperatures by next weekend or perhaps just beyond if model trends hold.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 644 PM EST FRI NOV 6 2026

MVFR and low-end VFR ceilings were across the area at the 00Z TAF issuance. Ceilings are forecast to break up from north to south during the night, with ceilings dissipating area wide by around 08Z. However, confidence in the timing of this is not particularly high. Assuming clouds do dry up, localized valley fog with IFR or worse condition should develop again, but it's not expected to affect TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to return area wide late in the morning and last through the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Saturday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106-108-111-114.