textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights holds through the end of the work week.

- Breezy and rainy conditions are possible this weekend as a strong weather system, including the remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias (currently in the Gulf), moves northeast across the region. There is still considerable uncertainty with this system and potential impacts, and forecasts will become better refined as the event nears.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 339 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026

The extended period opens with quiet conditions, fair skies, and light winds through the remainder of the work week as surface high pressure remains near eastern Kentucky through Thursday before starting to shift towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday. This will keep dry weather in place across the region, with unseasonably warm afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on both Thursday and Friday, with Friday a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday. Clear skies and light winds will favor ridge-valley temperature splits each night. Temperatures each night should drop into the mid-to-upper 40s in the coldest, sheltered valleys, while remaining in the 50s elsewhere, again with Friday night a few degrees warmer than Thursday night.

All eyes turn to Tropical Depression Nine and the likelihood for a major weather system to impact the Deep South to the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians this weekend. Current NHC forecasts show Tropical Depression Nine strengthening to a hurricane before making landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast Friday evening. Models then show the potential for rapid deepening of this upper- level feature as strong non-linear heat/energy transfer occurs from the lower to upper levels over MS and vicinity during the day Saturday, before the remnant extratropical system moves northeast across the TN and OH Valley regions late Saturday night into Sunday.

The likely mutual amplification of the low-level and upper-level systems will likely allow for the storm to maintain a well-defined surface low well inland as it moves north toward the southern TN Valley, and this will have implications on the forecast for the Southern Appalachians and eastern Kentucky, as models depict a fairly strong pressure gradient developing between the northward- moving surface system and the surface high/ridging over the Mid- Atlantic region beginning possibly as early Saturday morning and lasting into Saturday night. This most likely means a period of gusty winds developing over the Cumberland Mountain ridgetops Friday night into Saturday, with daytime mixing Saturday allowing for breezy conditions potentially impacting lower elevations Saturday into Saturday night. Current modeling show max wind gusts possibly reaching or exceeding 40 mph at higher elevations, with some potential for 25 to 40 mph to reach lower elevations, especially closer to the TN border.

Rainfall amounts are highly uncertain, but the low-level southeasterly flow should significantly minimize heavy rainfall impacts to the immediate north and west of the Cumberland Mountains. This morning's daily WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks only have a Marginal Risk for Saturday and Saturday night to the west of Interstate 75, though brief periods of heavier rainfall will certainly be possible as the system passes during this time.

Rain chances will diminish quickly from west to east Sunday into Sunday night behind the departing system, with ridging building in for Monday. Attention then turns to a cold front in northwesterly flow aloft that likely approaches the area for Tuesday. Fair skies will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s Tuesday ahead of the cold front passage, while overnight lows will mostly be in the mid to upper 50s from Saturday night through Monday night.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT WED OCT 7 2026

VFR conditions under clear skies are expected through the period at the terminals.

Valley fog will dissipate by 15z this morning, with TAF sites not expected to be impacted. Light south winds this morning will increase and veer to the southwest as the morning progresses into afternoon and daytime mixing commences, peaking at 5 to 9 kts during the afternoon hours. Gusts to around 15 kts are possible during peak heating hours in the mid-afternoon period. Valley fog will begin to develop again at the end of the TAF period, though not impacting the terminals.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.