textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front brings isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with the best chances shifting south of the Mountain Parkway by late morning.

- Fair, comfortable, and dry conditions are expected for Labor Day, except for a rogue afternoon shower chance near Lake Cumberland.

- Warm, dry weather continues through Wednesday before a cold front brings renewed shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 115 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026

The long-term period opens Monday evening with the latest model suite analysis showing lingering troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging is shifting east across the Mississippi River ahead of a trough transiting from the Pacific Northwest over the northern Rockies. Translating down to the surface, high pressure remains situated over the Lower Great Lakes and continues to dominate eastern Kentuckys weather. However, farther upstream, an ~1000 mb surface low is projected over the northern Plains while its associated cold front trails southwestward over the Great Basin.

The upper-level ridging will continue to shift eastward through midweek and gradually flatten as the upstream troughing traverses the northern CONUS, such that by late in the week, quasi-zonal flow with embedded shortwaves predominates over the Ohio Valley. At the surface, the aforementioned low lifts northeast to near James Bay by 00Z Thursday, where it becomes vertically stacked and weakens as it drifts into Quebec. However, there should be enough upper-level energy to push the systems associated cold front near the Ohio River. Shortwave ridging returns for Friday before another shortwave trough approaches for the upcoming weekend. Model spread does increase by the last days of the forecast period, leaving confidence in the details rather low.

In sensible weather terms, look for a fair and seasonably hot weather pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and nighttime lows range mostly through the 60s. Shower and thunderstorm chances return on Thursday with the arrival of the cold front. Behind the front, slightly cooler conditions along with diurnally modulated rain chances are then forecast heading into next weekend. Look for high temperatures to retreat to the lower to middle 80s by Friday and Saturday, while nighttime lows slip into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026

Thunderstorm coverage continues to decrease early this morning. The cold front is sliding in from the north, with MVFR CIGs and some fog developing behind it. The main story this TAF period is the MVFR CIGs/VIS occurring early in the TAF with light northeasterly winds increasing after 12Z. Flight categories should improve back to VFR by Sunday afternoon, remaining VFR through the end of the TAF.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.