textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A very large and deep storm system centered well to our northeast will bring rain and high elevation snow to most of the area at times into tonight.

- High pressure slowly approaches and moves over the region over the next several days, bringing a return of dry weather during the weekend and lasting through the upcoming workweek.

- A warming trend will begin on Saturday, with high temperatures gradually climbing each day through the upcoming workweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 910 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2026

Scattered showers are currently across the area, with a wintery mix or all snow falling at higher elevations. Black Mountain is currently below freezing and the Pike County mesonet is right at the freezing point. The Pike and Harlan County mesonet cameras appear to show ongoing snow. Updated temperatures and dewpoints to reflect current observations. PoPs were adjusted to better fit with radar trends. As a shortwave passes, showers will continue to decrease in coverage from northwest to southeast over the next few hours.

UPDATE Issued at 651 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2026

Scattered to numerous showers, mainly in the form of rain, though temperatures above 2500 feet are cold enough for snow at this point. These were occurring in a cold advective usplope flow regime as a shortwave trough rotating ground an upper low in the Mid Atlantic states approaches the Commonwealth. Shower activity should gradually decrease in coverage as the shortwave rotates across the area this evening. However cold advection will continue for a few more hours after the shortwave passes and showers cannot be ruled out during the overnight hours. If showers linger as the column continues to cool, some snow could occur down to around 1500 feet elevation if not below before the showers end. Minor accumulations are still expected above 2500 feet elevation, with a dusting possible on grassy and elevated surfaces below that level where isolated to scattered snow showers occur. Some minor updates were made to hourly temperatures over the next few hours to account for recent observation trends.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 227 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2026

At the start of the long term period, 500 mb troughing will be centered over New England, with ridging over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cutoff low will be progressing through the Southern Plains, with additional broader troughing centered over the Pacific Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be located over the Midwest, with no other notable features near eastern Kentucky. This area of high pressure will be the dominant player in the long term forecast, maintaining tranquil and uneventful weather through the entire long term period.

Initially, some cloud cover will linger on Sunday as winds remain northwesterly and just enough low level moisture will support upslope clouds, particularly in southeastern Kentucky. This pattern will keep high temperatures cool on Sunday, likely in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. As ridging builds east, however, the region of surface high pressure will progress eastward as well, marking a shift in surface winds from northwesterly to northeasterly late Sunday into early Monday. Any cloud cover should dissipate, and a weak pressure gradient associated with this high should allow for ideal radiative cooling conditions on Sunday night and support the development of a ridge/valley split. Valley temperatures could plummet into the mid 20s, while ridges will likely stay warmer in the 30s. However, if cloud cover lingers longer than expected, lows could end up being warmer than forecast in these locations.

By Monday, clear skies will set in, and as upper level ridging continues to build into our area, attendant high pressure at the surface should limit cloud cover through Wednesday. Even as the aforementioned cutoff low progresses east, this system will begin to dissipate along the Gulf Coast by Tuesday before being absorbed into broader troughing along the Atlantic Coast, with no impact to the forecast area. Instead, midlevel heights should rise through Wednesday, and by midweek, LREF mean 500 mb heights look to be anomalously high, roughly the 95th percentile compared to climatology. At the surface, this will allow temperatures to warm each day, and by midweek the surface high will be east of the area with winds becoming more southwesterly, advecting warmer and more moist air into eastern Kentucky. Model spread does increase somewhat by Thursday as the main ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area; however, confidence in above average temperatures remains high, with ensemble guidance suggesting high temperatures are likely to remain in at least the mid 60s, even as increased moisture could allow a few clouds to return to the forecast. Lows should also follow this warming trend. Although mostly clear skies overnight will allow valleys to decouple, setting the stage for ridge/valley splits each night, higher dewpoints will keep overnight lows noticeably milder for all locations by the end of the forecast period. Even so, no precipitation is expected through Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2026

Showers have started to diminish from northwest to southeast across the CWA at issuance time. Showers should taper off in all areas through around 09Z. The northern and western TAF sites have already improved to VFR conditions with KJKL and KSJS and points south and southeast still experiencing MVFR or briefly lower reductions in or following showers. Southeastern locations will experience generally MVFR, with some localized IFR reductions over the highest elevations during the first 6 to 9 hours of the period, with a gradual trend to VFR. Once VFR develops in all areas it should prevail for the remainder of the period. Clouds are anticipated in the 3.5 to 5kft agl range with VFR in place for much of the period as moisture remains a couple thousand feet either side of the 850 mb level. Winds will generally be less than 10KT through the period from the northwest to west.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.