textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Just a small chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm each day for most of the week.

- Heat and humidity build today - likely becoming quite oppressive by mid-week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 539 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026

The long wave pattern will start out amplified and stagnant, characterized by a dominant ridge axis anchored over the central Appalachians, bringing continue hot and muggy weather to the region. This ridge will maintain control through Friday, keeping the weather mostly dry. The ridge will lose its grip by this weekend and into early next week, as enough traversing short wave energy allows for a return of troughiness across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Model agreement remains good with the broader pattern, but details become lower confidence towards the end of the extended portion of the forecast.

Heat and humidity will be the main weather story through the holiday weekend. The most oppressive days will be Wednesday and Thursday, with high temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 90s, while lows only dip into the lower 70s at night for most locations. Friday will be a shade cooler, with highs in the low to mid 90s, as the core of the upper level ridges shifts off to our east. Highs will continue to lower this weekend, with upper 80s and lower 90s forecast, before cooling further still into the mid to upper 80s by Monday. Unfortunately, the humidity will continue to be high throughout the period, with dew points staying above 70 degrees the majority of the time.

While a stray shower or storm will be possible across eastern Kentucky on Thursday, most locations will be rain-free. On Friday, slightly better convective coverage may occur, as the upper level ridge center migrates off to our east, but again, most locations should still be dry. Diurnally driven convection will then increase more in coverage each day this weekend and into early next week. This will occur in response to the transition to the aforementioned troughiness aloft and the eventual approach of a cold front at the surface.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026

As high pressure continues to set up across the region, subsidence is increasing. That being said, there is still enough lingering moisture and mixing this afternoon to spawn some fair-weather CU across much of eastern KY. A few small showers are also possible near the KSJS TAF in far eastern KY, but should not cause any issues other than a temporary visibility reduction. All CU and any lingering shower chances should dissipate heading into the evening hours with the loss of mixing. This will give way to mostly clear skies overnight, and the potential for some valley fog development. Did not include any fog impacts at the TAF sites at this time. Winds are also light at the TAF issuance, and should remain light through the remainder of the TAF period as well, less than 5 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for KYZ087-088-104-106>120.