textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A front passes through Eastern Kentucky this morning and ushers in a colder and drier airmass, with single digit lows expected in most places overnight.

- Apparent temperatures will approach five below zero for some locales in the Bluegrass tonight, prompting the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory into Tuesday morning.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal remain in the forecast through Tuesday night.

- There is a chance for light precipitation on Wednesday and Wednesday night, but a more significant storm system could yield impactful snow accumulations this weekend.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 638 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

When the long term forecast period opens on Tuesday night, the previous day's surface high pressure system will be propagating off to the east. Zonal flow aloft and the antecedent dry air will favor efficient radiational cooling as the sun sets, and ridge-valley decoupling is anticipated. The cooler valley locales should cool off into the teens by midnight, with ridgetops closer to the 20 degree mark. However, a warm air advection regime is expected to kick into gear by sunrise on Wednesday morning. As a clipper-type low approaches the region from the northwest, low-level winds will veer towards the southwest and strengthen. Models resolve a 40-50 knot LLJ over the forecast area by midday, and diurnal mixing could yield breezy conditions at the surface. The stronger southwesterly flow should pump temperatures into the 40s across the entire forecast area before the system's cold front arrives on Wednesday afternoon. A few of the conventionally warmer river valleys in SE KY could approach the 50 degree mark on the thermometer, further demonstrating the efficacy of this WAA regime. Along these lines, the narrow corridor of prefrontal moisture return looks sufficient enough for precipitation chances to spread across the region on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. However, this system has trended faster and warmer relative to this time yesterday. Light rain is now the favored precipitation type, as ensemble mean thermal profiles and the latest deterministic GFS/NAM soundings keep the lower portions of the column above freezing. While some snow may still mix in via wetbulbing, the probability of accumulating snow has decreased to less than 30% across much of the forecast area in the latest LREF Grand Ensemble data. If any snow does manage to fall, accumulations would be limited to a dusting by the quick- moving nature of the parent system.

Another high pressure looks to build into the forecast area on Thursday, favoring a drying/clearing trend. Expect temperatures in the lower 40s/upper 30s amidst westerly post-frontal surface flow and zonal flow aloft. The surface flow will shift towards the north on Friday as this more potent Canadian high nudges further into the Midwest. Its 1050+ mb strength ranks greater than the 95th percentile of climatological guidance, and the guidance suite collectively depicts this feature lingering to the northwest of the forecast area this weekend. The resultant low level cold air advection regime is expected to yield favorable thermal profiles for winter precipitation types by the end of the forecast period, when a southern stream system is poised to eject out of the Southern Plains and into the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys.

While the exact evolution of this late-period system remains uncertain, the potential for accumulating winter precipitation next weekend is increasing. A mid/upper level trough digging into the desert southwest will funnel a deeper layer of moisture towards the developing storm system in the South-Central and Southeastern CONUS. It is plausible that the influence and strength of the anomalously strong Canadian high will keep the best moisture confined to southern portions of our forecast area, and this notion aligns with multiple pieces of presently-available data. The latest run of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index/Shift of Tails (EFI/SOT) product is highlighting southern portions of the forecast area with an EFI greater than 0.5 and an SOT greater than 2 for snowfall. These values suggest that a more impactful snow event cannot be ruled out, especially in the southern half of the forecast area. Likewise, there has been a noticeable upward trend in the latest LREF Grand Ensemble accumulating snow probabilities. The highest values are once again depicted over Southern/Southeastern Kentucky, regardless of accumulation thresholds. The probabilities of 1 and 4 inches of accumulating snow in the 24 hour period between 12z Saturday and 12z Sunday have increased to 50-70% and 20-30%, respectively, with tonight's model runs. At this time yesterday, these probabilities were less than 30% and less than 5%. Given all of the above, interests are strongly encouraged to stay tuned to future forecast updates. It remains too early to provide specific details regarding precipitation onset timing and exact accumulation amounts, but if these trends continue, Eastern Kentucky is in store for some impactful winter weather late in the long term forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the period, with the conditional threat for a few hours of borderline MVFR cigs diminishing across the far north between around 12z and 16z Monday.

Light southwest winds generally around 3 to 7 kts initially this evening will increase to near 10KT between 06Z and 12Z especially for western terminals as a cold front approaches, with gusts into the 20 to 25KT range during the day Monday along and behind the cold front before beginning to diminish toward the end of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106.