textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week.

- The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days.

- Small shower and thunderstorm chances return on Tuesday. Additional showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night and again into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1056 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026

All is quiet across eastern Kentucky this evening as temperatures dip back into the 60s over the ridges and into 50s through many of the valleys. A little fog is forming in the upper reaches of the Cumberland River Valley where rain fell earlier this evening. Through the remainder of the night, look for the surface pressure gradient to gradually tighten overnight, likely leading to renewed occasional mixing. This should keep valleys from cooling off too much more and in some cases temperatures may actually rise later in the night. There is still a low chance for some more very light rainfall in the morning with a subtle disturbance, primarily after the daybreak as suggested by the lower resolution models. (The CAMs still aren't really latching on the idea yet).

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026

An area of lingering light rain over far southeastern Kentucky is gradually diminishing at update time and should depart by ~1Z. Once the rain ends, fair weather can be expected for the remainder of the overnight with temperatures falling back into the 50s to near 60F.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 507 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026

An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week.

Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve.

A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON APR 13 2026

VFR prevailed at TAF issuance. Light rain over far southeastern Kentucky affecting 1A6 and I35 should depart within an hour. Winds will slacken to variable to southwest around 6 kts or less overnight. However, winds will increase aloft as a disturbance approaches after about 04Z which will result in a marginal LLWS threat through daybreak. Some isolated shower activity is possible on Tuesday but confidence in impacts and timing was too low to retain in the latest TAF issuance. Southwest winds at 5 to 15KT with gusts of 15 to 25KT should return for most of the daylight hours on Tuesday, strongest winds west of I-75 and near/north of I-64.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.