textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist into Saturday, before a modest cool down for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front.

- After low chances (<20%) for measurable rain in the north behind a late weekend cold front, there is greater potential for more widespread precipitation at times next week.

- There is a potential for a wintery mix in more northern locations Sunday night and Monday, but at this time, any accumulations look to be light.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 237 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

There will be a persistent threat of precipitation through most of the long term period, with the period looking rather wet overall.

A cold front is expected to be passing southeast through the forecast area at the start of the period and exiting during the day Sunday. This front, and low pressure systems moving along it, will be the main features for the entire long term time frame. Little moisture return will occur before the front's initial passage on Sunday, and the POP looks low and any precip very light on Sunday.

Moving forward in time, the forecast issues center on the amount of cold/dry air which initially arrives behind the front, and the extent of gulf moisture which ends up overriding the cold air Sunday night into Monday as high pressure over the far southeast CONUS breaks down. Models dont agree on these things, with the NAM allowing colder/drier air to arrive as compared to the ECMWF or GFS. The NAM also has less flow off the gulf. As a result, the 12Z NAM is dry for our area on Sunday night and Monday, while the 12Z GFS (the wettest model) had 1/4-3/4" water equivalent for almost the whole area for those 24 hours. Complicating matters, the GFS is cold enough for a wintery mix during this time (mainly in our northern counties), giving more significant impacts than would occur with just rain. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF is warm enough for mainly rain. With all that in mind, forecast confidence is not very high, and the official forecast using blended data will tend to smooth things out.

Models differences continue from Monday night on, especially with positioning/timing of the wavering front as a couple of low pressure systems develop and track along it. The National Blend of Models in use will again tend to smooth this out, when the reality as things play out will probably be more defined precip and temperature regimes. Thus, confidence in forecast specifics is still not very high.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

VFR TAFs are now prevailing across all sites now this this morning's fog has burned off. Under the regime of high pressure, TAFs will be largely VFR through the period; however, river valley fog may develop overnight and impact KLOZ, KSME and KSYM after 06Z tonight through 15Z-ish Saturday morning. Otherwise, light and variable winds are forecast through the 18Z issuance window.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.