textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The last of the flurries end early this morning. - Widespread rain chances return Wednesday night and continues through Friday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 117 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

Mid-upper level clouds continue to be very prevalent and are holding temps back. Have lowered the max temp fcst for this afternoon a bit.

UPDATE Issued at 1115 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

High clouds are a little thicker than was forecast, and sky cover has been increased for today. If this persists, high temps could be held back some, but will wait a while longer to see what happens before making changes to temps.

UPDATE Issued at 650 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

The forecast period begins with a negatively tilted longwave trough oriented across much of the eastern CONUS. This feature will sustain the weather that began in the short-term window; however, the forecast area is now progged to be under the right entrance region of a departing jet streak. This positioning will promote the development of a surface low along the trailing cold front of the system, which is currently oriented under the left exit region of the jet. Through the day Thursday, the cold front and associated surface feature will track through the area, bringing widespread rain showers. As the supporting jet dynamics shift to the east, showers will decrease from northwest to southeast before ending by early Friday morning. Since the flow remains out of the west- southwest, temperatures will stay above freezing throughout the systems passage; however, a few flurries cannot be ruled out across the Bluegrass early Thursday morning. Temperatures are expected to start cool on Thursday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s, but even warmer temperatures are forecast for Friday behind the departing system, with highs reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will build into the region behind the departing system, allowing for dry weather and warming temperatures through the weekend. However, the warming will plateau on Saturday due to an approaching shortwave trough progged to move through the Ohio Valley. The atmospheric column appears fairly dry, leading to less than 15% PoP on Sunday, but cloud cover associated with the system will limit diurnal warming, capping highs in the upper 40s across the Bluegrass and the lower 60s toward the TN/VA border.

As another longwave trough swings across the northern CONUS and southern Canada, the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will be positioned in the right entrance region of the jet core. Under this regime, surface cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late Sunday, with increasing PoP beginning Sunday night and persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. The area will be on the cusp of the freezing line; consequently, areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway will likely see a wintry mix Sunday night into Monday before thermal profiles warm, allowing for a transition to all rain as the dominant precipitation type.

The period will start with a passing wave bringing precipitation, followed by surface high pressure and warming temperatures into the weekend. A secondary wave is forecast for early next week, bringing an initial wintry mix followed by a transition to rain.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 117 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected until at least late in the period. There will be an overall lowering of clouds with time, especially overnight into Wednesday morning. A little light rain is possible on Wednesday morning. Some MVFR ceilings can't be ruled out during or after the time of the rain potential, but confidence in the ceilings isn't very high.

There is also a possibility of low level wind shear tonight into Wednesday morning as WSW winds pick up off the surface. This is somewhat dependent on whether surface winds can remain low enough without gusts to allow for shear vs. turbulence.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.