textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather continues today, with widespread heat indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms return this afternoon, primarily near and west of Interstate 75.

- A wetter pattern arrives Friday and continues through Sunday. The anomalously moist airmass will result in daily rounds of storms, some of which could produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- A cold front will cross the region next Tuesday, bringing another chance for strong thunderstorms followed by cooler and drier weather mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 941 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

Another summertime day is in progress across Eastern Kentucky. Area observations and webcams reveal that AM river valley fog has burned off under ample sunshine, but cumulus clouds are already developing across our southwestern counties. Temperatures remain on track to rise into the upper 80s/lower 90s again, but dewpoints a few degrees higher than yesterday's mean that apparent temperatures could flirt with the triple digits in portions of the CWA. Widespread heat impacts are not expected, partly because the aforementioned increase in low-level moisture will allow those cumulus clouds to deepen into isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon. The greatest thunderstorm chances are along/west of the I-75 corridor, but a stray PM shower cannot entirely be ruled out elsewhere. Radar returns have already been noted across Wayne County, and low-end (15-20%) PoPs have accordingly been introduced across the Lake Cumberland region through the remainder of this morning. Aside from these minor PoP adjustments, the forecast remains on track this morning, with AM observations largely in track with the previous forecast grids.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 350 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

The extended period opens with Eastern Kentucky at the beginning of an active pattern as multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected Friday evening and again during the afternoons Saturday and Sunday. Monday will have a brief reprieve in active weather before a stronger cold front passes through the area Tuesday afternoon with more chances of showers and storms.

Diving into the details at the start of the period, a large ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West, along with troughing across much of Central and Eastern Canada will leave the Ohio Valley including Eastern Kentucky under quasi-zonal flow. Under this flow regime multiple embedded shortwaves will spill over the lee-side of the ridge into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. As mentioned above these shortwaves will tend to produce showers and thunderstorms Friday evening, and again Saturday and Sunday. During this timeframe, PWATs of 2.0-2.1 inches advect into the area and potentially approach the 99th percentile relative to climo. This anomalously moist environment coupled with shower and storm chances has prompted the WPC to issue a marginal risks for excessive rainfall 12Z Friday through 12Z Sunday.

As one of the embedded shortwaves in the trough over Canada progresses into the Northeast Sunday evening, Kentucky will find itself in-between systems. The next upper level trough is modeled to pass through the Great Lakes Monday evening, with the system's cold front passing through our area sometime Tuesday. Model soundings suggest some of these storms have the potential to be on the stronger side, with surface based CAPE near 3000 J/kg and DCAPE over 1200 J/kg. Areas in or around any potential storm within this environment may experience erratic and gusty winds. Temperatures generally range from the mid to upper 80s during the afternoon hours before cooling into the mid 60s to low 70s at night through Tuesday. Somewhat cooler weather likely follows the front mid-week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

In general, VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites this afternoon. A deeper cumulus field has developed across the southwestern half of the forecast area, and these will yield isolated to scattered showers later this afternoon. Confidence in the strength and duration of this convection is low, so have handled this with Prob30 groups at KJKL, KLOZ, and KSME for now. Brief MVFR reductions and erratic wind gusts are possible wherever the strongest activity tracks, with thunderstorms most likely at KSME. Locally wet grounds and an overall increase in low-level moisture relative to yesterday bolsters confidence in greater fog coverage tonight. KSME and KLOZ are the most likely to fog, so more significant vsby reductions have been explicitly included there tomorrow morning. Elsewhere, TEMPOs cover the potential for patchier fog. Once the fog lifts tomorrow morning, expect another day of showers and storms, this time with wider spatial coverage. Convection chances begin to increase at the very end of today's 18z TAF period, especially at western terminals. Outside of any showers and storms, expect generally light winds to adopt more of a southwesterly orientation tomorrow.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.