textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms, some with torrential downpours leading to a risk of high water, are possible for areas generally along and south of a Mount Vernon to Manchester to Whitesburg line through morning.

- After 24 hours, or so, of drying chances for showers and storms will return to areas mainly south of the Mtn Parkway for Sunday evening through Monday evening.

- Temperatures will average within a few degrees of normal over the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1035 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026

The cold front continues sinking southwest, likely around Wayne, McCreary and Bell counties. Showers remain possible ahead of this front. Slow moving showers could lead to excessive rain though the threat continues to diminish. Updated the grids with the latest observational data from around the area. No significant changes were made to the forecast. Thunder was removed from the forecast so new SAFs were sent.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026

The front is showing signs of sinking back southwest, but until it does, excessive rains remain possible from slow moving efficient showers and a few thunderstorms. No significant changes were made to the gridded forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky/PoP elements. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat May 30 2026

When the long term forecast period opens on Sunday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing in Southern Kentucky. After a period of southwesterly low level flow recharges the atmospheric moisture content over the commonwealth during the daytime hours, the approach of a shortwave disturbance should drag a stalled frontal boundary out of the Tennessee Valley on Sunday night. There remains some uncertainty regarding the northern extent of that boundary's influence, but ensemble guidance gives credence to the notion that the greatest rain potential is in the Cumberland River Basin. Expect increased cloud cover across the across the entire CWA by midnight Monday, which should insulate overnight lows to the upper 50s/lower 60s. Northern valleys could decouple after sunset, but given the aforementioned forecast uncertainty, topography-based edits were limited to minor adjustments for the first portion of the period.

The synoptic pattern aloft looks to amplify headed into the next work week. The forecast guidance suite collectively resolves an amplifying ridge over the Great Plains while two distinct troughs dig into the Pacific Northwest and the Eastern Seaboard. As that Eastern trough deepens on Monday, additional shortwave disturbances are progged to rotate around its backside and into the vicinity of the forecast area. These features should combine with the aforementioned boundary to provide enough lift for additional shower and storms in the southern third of the forecast area on Tuesday. Given the relatively weak wind fields, the proximity of the boundary, and the potential for multiple rounds of activity, WPC has maintained a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Monday for counties along the Tennessee State Line. Thankfully, the impulses aloft will shunt this surface boundary back to the south by Monday evening and place the forecast area in a regime of vertically- stacked northerly flow.

These northerly winds will usher a much drier airmass into the forecast area for the rest of the work week. The omega blocking pattern produced by the three synoptic features discussed above will steadily break down as the week progresses. Here in eastern KY, this initially places us on the western periphery of a closed low spinning over New England, with the Central CONUS ridge situated upstream. The gradual eastward propagation of both will leave the northerly flow regime in place through at least Thursday morning. This means that a continental airmass is poised to dominate the sensible weather forecast for Eastern Kentucky next week.

Topography-dependent forecast intricacies will be on display next week, with widespread ridge-valley temperature splits probable from Monday night onward. Valley fog will be possible wherever there is access to a moisture source, be it antecedently wet grounds or a nearby river/creek/stream. The exact values of the overnight lows will be dependent upon the magnitude of diurnal mixing that is realized. The deterministic NBM used to populate the long term grids is on the higher end of the forecast guidance envelope when it comes to dewpoint temperatures. Dry air advection and increasingly efficient diurnal mixing may culminate in dewpoints lower than the upper 40s/lower 50s current depicted in the grids. The currently available BUFKIT soundings and explicitly-mixed sfc->30mb AGL dewpoint model data suggest that dewpoints in the upper 30s/lower 40s are plausible in this pattern. Light winds and recently-wet fuels should curtail any resultant fire weather concerns, so the primary impacts from these drier dewpoints will be the potential for locally cooler overnight lows in sheltered/shaded valleys and the fact that it will feel FANTASTIC outside next week. MaxTs should remain in the 70s for most locations through midweek, with LREF probabilities for highs above the 80 degree mark remaining below the 50% threshold through at least Thursday. Thanks to the low moisture content of the continental airmass, apparent temperatures will be equivalent to the seasonably cool values observed on the thermometers. Thus, under mostly sunny skies, the mid-week weather forecast looks ideal for any outdoor activities that interests might have planned.

The blocking pattern is expected to fully break down by the end of the forecast period, with a flattening ridge eventually settling into the SE CONUS. This would place the Ohio River Valley in quasi- zonal flow aloft and on the backside of the related surface high pressure system. While models disagree on the arrival time of these synoptics (the GFS suite wants to keep the East Coast troughing around for longer), it should yield a late-week warming trend and a gradual increase in atmospheric moisture content. Confidence is growing that highs will return to the 80s area-wide on Friday (60- 80% chance in the latest LREF data), and with the warmth comes the return of summertime PoPs. While the forecast does not currently call for a week-end washout, isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms return to the forecast to close out the long term forecast period. Meteorological summer starts on Monday, June 1st, and this particular forecast meets the moment.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026

A front over the Cumberland Valley appears to be starting to sink back southwest. This boundary remains the focal point for low clouds and shower and some thunderstorm activity that continues through the late morning hours. PROB30, prevailing, and TEMPO groups were used to cover this convective potential at LOZ and SME with thunder chances mentioned, as well. Drier air moves into the area toward midday, forcing this boundary south into Tennessee. This will allow conditions to return to VFR. Light winds will continue through the morning before becoming northeasterly at less than 10 kts during the afternoon hours.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.