textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures will last into the weekend, with milder readings then returning early next week.

- A soaking rainfall will occur for the second half of this weekend.

- Well above normal temperatures expected through the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1033 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026

Updated the forecast with the latest observations from around the area. No major changes were made to the forecast, as high pressure provides light winds and sunny skies today.

UPDATE Issued at 757 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026

Just a quick little refresh to incorporate the latest surface obs and interpolate through the rest of the morning. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 426 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026

The long-term period opens Saturday evening with a soggy storm system at our doorstep. The 13/00Z model suite analysis is in good agreement on the synoptic details through the forecast window, but some discrepancies linger in the smaller-scale details. A 500 hPa trough will initially be to our west, stretching from Iowa to Texas, supporting an area of low pressure over the Red River Valley of the South.

That low pressure system will pass to our south on Sunday while spreading Gulf moisture northward across the Tennessee Valley and into Kentucky--PWATs surge to around the 90th percentile relative to climatology. A soaking rain is likely with probabilities for at least 1 inch of rainfall ranging from 10 to 20% in the I-64 corridor to 60 percent near Lake Cumberland. Probabilities for more than 2 inches of rain remain under 10% though, and confined along/west of I-75. Rainfall amounts of the expected magnitude, generally 0.5 to 1.5 inches north to south, are not sufficient to cause significant hydro concerns.

Once the low pressure departs Sunday night, ridging will build back across the region both aloft and at the surface, leading to a warming trend heading into mid-week. With time, additional troughs/Pacific energy will ride up over the ridging along a notable baroclinic zone from Wednesday onward, but most, if not all, of the associated precipitation should remain north of the Commonwealth, leaving eastern Kentucky solidly in the warm sector. The ECMWF EFI is signaling the most anomalously mild temperatures of the period from Tuesday night through Thursday.

In sensible terms, look for a soggy and seasonably cool start to the period with lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s through Sunday night. Fair weather follows for Monday into mid-week, when small rain chances return to the forecast. High temperatures will moderate into the 60s for nearly all of eastern Kentucky by Tuesday and remain there through Thursday, while lows range in the 30s and 40s, except some low 50s on Wednesday night.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 628 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026

VFR conditions will exist through the TAF period due to the persistent presence of surface high pressure. Light and variable winds are anticipated.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.