textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms, some with torrential downpours leading to a risk of high water, are possible for areas generally along and south of a Harlan to London to Somerset line.

- Chances for showers and storms will return to areas mainly south of the Mtn Parkway for Sunday through Monday evening.

- Temperatures will average within a few degrees of normal over the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 624 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026

Updated hourly T/Td grids for the next several hours. Hourly PoPs and Sky grids were already sufficient, so made no changes for now, but will reassess based on radar trends through the evening and adjust accordingly. The forecast overall is in excellent shape, so changes are minimal.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 400 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026

The period opens with an upper level low near Atlantic Canada, another closed upper level low over the Mountain West, and stubborn upper level ridging over central North America; in essence, the start of the period will be characterized by an omega block pattern, with eastern Kentucky east of the ridge. At the surface, a high will be centered over the Great Lakes region, with low pressure over the southern Great Plains and a wavy frontal boundary extending across the southeastern US. On the other side of the Appalachians, high pressure will dominate over the southeastern Piedmont, placing eastern Kentucky in between these elements. The forecast area will see increasingly southwesterly winds on Sunday as the Piedmont high shifts eastward, and moisture return is expected across much of eastern Kentucky, with the highest dewpoints in the southwestern portion of our forecast area. Meanwhile, the aforementioned boundary will lift northward as a weak shortwave enters the Ohio Valley. This will bring another round of rain to much of eastern Kentucky, with the highest rain chances in the southwestern portion of the forecast area. The big question with this pattern is the northward extent of the boundary in addition to the positioning and amplitude of the shortwave; for now, NBM PoPs were kept as-is to hedge for this uncertainty, although with the caveat that current PoPs represent a broad brushing of this active period. Overall, although forecast details still remain somewhat fuzzy, rain will be likely near the KY/TN line overnight on Sunday, with increasing uncertainty further north.

Rain chances continue Monday as additional impulses rotate around the trough under upper level northwest flow. The frontal boundary will stall through Sunday night before it is again pushed back south, with the highest rain chances on Monday remaining in the southern portion of our forecast area. Meanwhile, the upper level trough is expected to dig deeper into the northeastern US. Concurrently, the upper level ridge axis previously centered over the Plains will shift east as the block begins to break down. As a result, at the surface, high pressure will begin to build in our area. With northerly postfrontal winds ushering in drier air (before diminishing overnight), rain chances will completely exit the area by Tuesday morning, beginning a drier period.

Tuesday through Thursday, tranquil weather will return to eastern Kentucky. With the northeastern low now over the Atlantic, upper level troughing will be succeeded by ridging, and clear skies will dominate. Highs will be seasonable (generally in the upper 70s to low 80s), and northerly flow will keep dewpoints firmly in the 40s and 50s. This will create nearly perfect conditions for outdoor activities each afternoon! In the overnight hours, dry air will allow for below average low temperatures. Temperatures will generally fall into the mid to low 50s across the area. However, with high pressure over the area, there is a potential for moderate ridge/valley temperature splits to develop each night; thus, some sheltered valleys could fall into the mid to upper 40s, and this is corroborated by MOS guidance (although dewpoints bottoming out in the mid 40s will provide a reasonable floor for temperatures in sheltered locations). Additionally, valley fog will be possible in the mornings as temperatures approach dewpoints in these areas. This generally pleasant pattern will continue until our next chance for rain arrives Friday as ridging breaks down and the overall upper level pattern becomes more zonal.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026

A stationary front/boundary will sharpen from near Lake Cumberland and KSME east-southeast to near KI35 (Harlan) by 03z and will become the focal point for low clouds and shower and thunderstorm activity through the overnight through late morning period. PROB30, prevailing, and TEMPO groups were used to cover this convective potential, but thunder chances were under 30 percent and thus too low for a mention at this time. Drier air moves into the area toward midday, forcing this stationary boundary south into Tennessee as a cold front. Meanwhile, a secondary cold front will move south into the area to end the period. Despite the cold frontal passages, light winds are expected through tonight before becomes northeasterly at less than 10 kts during the afternoon hours Saturday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.