textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers are likely by late evening/tonight into Saturday, with a few thunderstorms possible as a weakening cold front and a couple of disturbances pass.

- A stronger system brings another chance for widespread showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday, but the severe weather potential is still uncertain in Eastern Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 633 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

The early evening update pushes back onset of 15 and higher PoPs in northern counties by at least a few hours compared to the inherited forecast, based on radar and CAMS trends. Minor adjustments to Sky grids were also made in conjunction with the change in PoPs.

Otherwise, the forecast is on track with just a refresh of the hourly T/Td grids in the near term.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 358 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

The long term period will open with relatively tranquil weather on Sunday; seasonable temperatures and mostly dry conditions will prevail with the potential exception of far eastern Kentucky, where the NBM introduces slight shower chances. However, despite weak WAA, the broad consensus for dry profiles and height rises associated with a building ridge on Sunday afternoon indicate that it is unlikely these chances will materialize, and pleasant weather is expected until PoPs increase again overnight Monday.

Early next week, another storm system will push into our area, bringing a chance for more robust showers and thunderstorms. The main player during this period will be a negatively tilted upper level trough that will eject into the Midwest. A corresponding surface cyclone will push northeast from the Southern Plains into the Great Lakes, with a cold front extending southward from this cyclone. Ahead of the cold front, confidence is high that a warm front lifting northeast will leave our forecast area firmly in the warm sector by early Tuesday. Unfortunately, all other details regarding this system remain much less clear. Notably, there are still disagreements regarding when showers and storms will arrive due to uncertainties regarding the timing of the cold front. Recent guidance has trended slower with the front, increasing the probability of a Tuesday afternoon/evening frontal passage, and LREF guidance also demonstrates increasing confidence in at least marginal instability, although spread remains astronomical. Should a more destabilized scenario play out, the probability for severe weather Tuesday afternoon/evening would increase as shear would be adequate to support organized storms. Additionally, depending on the position of the main cyclone, it is possible that storms could interact with a strong low level jet. Some recent machine learning guidance has highlighted the increasing probability of this scenario. However, there are still many details in this forecast that must be ironed out, and confidence in severe weather Tuesday remains low. These trends will bear monitoring, but the probability of severe weather remains highly dependent on the evolution of these upstream features.

Guidance diverges significantly following Tuesdays cold front; a lack of run-to-run and model-to-model consistency means any forecast produced beyond this point is inherently low in confidence. Generally, guidance is split between weak ridging or troughing solutions immediately following the frontal passage, with a trend towards overall troughing over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by the end of the period. In the outcomes showing troughing, below average temperatures would be favored, and there is a signal that a series of shortwave perturbations could rotate into our area through the end of the period, which would lead to a continued pattern of unsettled weather and additional QPF. Given this potential, precipitation will be possible through the remainder of the long term period. However, details of this forecast remain unclear at this time, and confidence in PoPs is very low on any given day.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to begin the period, with some reductions in showers between 02z and 06z as showers and possibly a few isolated storms arrive from the west. Thereafter, ceilings should lower to MVFR or IFR for most locations other than near the VA border between 06z and 12z. With a cold front working across the area from north to south in the afternoon, MVFR or IFR ceilings are anticipated into the daytime hours before gradual improvements in the afternoon for many areas.

West to southwest winds will continue to diminish through 02z this evening, with light and variable winds through the end of the period. Some stronger gusts are possible in and around convection.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.