textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the new work week. The greatest coverage is expected from Tuesday through Friday. Some of those storms could arrive as organized clusters with a potential for strong wind gusts. - Isolated to scattered instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding later in the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 921 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026

All precip except a few showers near the VA border have died out. Have noted where precip occurred and tried to hit the fog there a little bit harder tonight than elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 526 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Eastern Kentucky is still poised to experience rather active weather during the long term forecast period, although specific details remain shrouded in mesoscale uncertainty. Confidence is increasing that swaths of very heavy rainfall will set up across portions of the Ohio River Valley as a significant pattern change takes place. An amplifying ridge over the South-Central CONUS will budge up against the forecast area on Tuesday and turn the flow aloft northwesterly. A series of low-predictability shortwave disturbances will ride around the periphery of that ridge and produce multiple organized thunderstorm complexes known as MCSes (Mesoscale Convective Systems). Seasonably warm temperatures (highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows near 70) and a very moist airmass (dewpoints in the 70s and PWATs between 1.7 and 1.9 inches) combine to provide more than enough instability for strong thunderstorms. Each passing shortwave will provide sufficient shear for these organized storm complexes, which could modify their own environment as they evolve. Textbook theory suggests that the SW side of each complex could be a prime area for renewed development with subsequent rounds, and we will also need to monitor for any residual outflow boundaries left behind by earlier rounds. While the first rounds of activity are progged to primarily affect NE KY and the Big Sandy Basin, the threat should shift southwest over time. This is reflected in the SPC and WPC outlooks.

With the afternoon forecast update, SPC added a Slight Risk of severe weather on Tuesday for most of the JKL CWA. Damaging wind gusts are the favored convective hazard type given the MCS/clustered storm mode, but mesoscale boundaries could yield a localized risk for additional hazard types. Any severe weather risk will be accompanied by a threat for excessive rainfall, and WPC has maintained a Slight (Level 2/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for NE KY on Tuesday. These NE locales will be the areas with the potential for antecedently wet grounds from activity during the short term forecast period. Given the more widespread coverage of strong storms and heavy rain on Tuesday though, the Slight ERO expands to the entire CWA on Wednesday. Flash flooding is most likely wherever storms engage in training and/or backbuilding behaviors. So, we will need to monitor the output of higher-resolution forecast models for parameter spacing that favors said behaviors.

All of this activity will culminate in the approach of a cold front in the latter stages of the period. In general, increased late week cloud cover should work to suppress the early week heat as time passes. Temperatures are forecast to modulate back towards more climatologically-appropriate values in NE KY by Thursday while higher temperatures remain in the forecast for the Cumberland River basin. The resultant temperature gradient is visible in the grids on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, which tracks given that forecast guidance has trended towards the aforementioned boundary stalling out in the vicinity of the area. On the south side of this boundary, there will be additional rounds of showers and storms. The intensity and organization of that late-period activity is highly uncertain, but this trend towards a prolonged period of wet weather is concerning. Stay tuned for further forecast updates, and ensure that you have multiple reliable ways to receive watches and warnings should they be needed.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 921 PM EDT SUN AUG 9 2026

A few showers/thunderstorms lingered in far southeast KY at the start of the period, but will die out this evening. Outside of the precip, VFR conditions will start the evening. Valley fog will develop during the night and bring localized IFR or worse conditions, and will be most prevalent where rain occurred during the afternoon and evening. However, the fog is not forecast to affect TAF sites. Any fog will dissipate in the morning. There is a possibility of more showers/thunderstorms developing on Monday, but there isn't enough confidence for anything more than a PROB30 group in TAFs, and only for TAF sites northeast of the Cumberland Basin.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.