textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain transitions to snow showers late in the day as a pair of cold fronts cross the region. Expect a sharp drop in temperatures behind the second front.

- Snow showers and brief squalls tonight may cause sudden, low visibility and slick roads this evening into Thursday morning. Accumulations of one inch or less are likely for most, with higher amounts in the mountains.

- More persistent snow showers yielding one to two inches of accumulation are expected in Pike, Harlan, and Letcher counties through Thursday morning. Totals of three to seven inches are possible on Big Black Mountain.

- Additional light snow is possible Friday through the weekend as more waves of arctic air move into the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 816 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026

The light rain band continues to make very slow southeastward progress at update time. That should change over the next few hours as isentropic upglide diminishes and the front begins to make a more determined southeastward push. The previous thinking from the short-term AFD is still valid. The hourly PoPs have been updated through 18Z to capture the latest model and radar trends.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 528 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026

Eastern Kentucky will be wrapping up with a system from early Thursday, as an upper-level low will continue its exit into the New England area Thursday evening. Cloud cover and snow showers may linger into the early evening hours with a combination of a long- fetch off Lake Michigan as well as orographic lift under west- northwest flow. Snow showers or flurries should tapper off quickly heading later into the evening, as winds continue to back from a west-northwest wind late Thursday afternoon, to a southwesterly wind heading into the late evening and overnight hours. Brief clearing will allow for low temperatures to bottom out in the teens across the area.

Friday, a warm front approaches the area from the southwest, with scattered snow showers in the morning. Warm air will overrun the area, leading to a changeover to a rain-snow mix before transitioning to all rain by the afternoon. Daytime highs will peak in the upper 30s to low 40s near the Bluegrass and I-64 corridor, and lower to mid 40s further south. With highs this cold, it wont take much cooling heading into the evening to dip into the 30s overnight. This will lead to a transition back to rain-snow mix through much of the overnight. At current, a cold front looks to pass through Eastern Kentucky around 5-8 AM, this will dip temperatures into the upper 20s to near 30 for much of the area (Friday night lows) and will likely transition to snow after sunrise Saturday. Scattered snow showers will occur through the day, with high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 30s. A secondary Arctic front moves through overnight leading to low temperatures in the low to mid teens.

High pressure will continue to dig south and east through the Central Plains through Sunday before ejecting northeast into the Tennessee Valley. With high pressure south of the area, Kentucky will have longer exposure to Arctic air. While quiet weather remains, high temperatures struggle to reach 30, with much of the area in the mid to upper 20s during the day. Sunday night will see a mix of clouds and clear conditions leading to temperatures to drop into the teens again.

Monday, should be quiet for most of the area with scattered snow showers possible in far Eastern Kentucky with a weak frontal passage. Temperatures will likely range from the upper 20s in the north to mid to upper 30s in the south.

A strong high pressure just upwind of the Great Lakes is the dominant feature in the northern part of the country. An area of low pressure comes out of the Southern Plains and reaches the Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning. As the approaching system out of the southwest evolves and progresses toward the forecast area, the critical thickness line will be around or perhaps at times splitting through the CWA, Tuesday and Wednesday. It remains to be seen how this unfolds, but it could result in multiple precip types for mid to late week. Tuesday looks to remain dry ahead of this system, with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s during the day, and teens at night.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 801 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026

VFR conditions were noted across the area as a band of light rain, northwest of SJS-JKL-SME at TAF issuance, settles southeastward ahead of a cold front. That band of rain should reach the VA-KY border by around 18Z, bringing a period of MVFR/IFR conditions. The steady rain will taper to convective showers as the cold front moves from the SYM vicinity around 19Z to the VA- KY border by 23Z. A secondary cold front brings the threat of a snow squall (possibly mixed with rain) as it dives southeastward across the area between 22Z and 02Z. Generally MVFR conditions are then expected overnight, though scattered snow showers and isolated squalls could lead to briefly worse conditions at times, especially through the first half of the night. Southwest winds at 5 to 10 kts will turn northwesterly behind frontal passage and increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts of 20 to 30 kt.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ088-118-120.