textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected through tonight. Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a possibility for strong to damaging wind gusts. - Excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to flash flooding - particularly early this morning.

- The Flood Watch for the entire forecast area is in effect through 8 am this morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 515 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026

The most current model data continues to suggest the dominance of the southern upper Ridge into Kentucky over the weekend briefly limiting convection. However, this dome oh higher heights retreats southwest in time for the new work week returning the storm track closer to the state. Right now, SPC has continued a Marginal severe threat into Saturday for the eastern part of our area. Meanwhile, WPC continues to highlight excessive rain threats through Saturday - though the concern is much higher prior to the weekend.

The previous long term discussion follows:

At the onset of the long term period, eastern Kentucky will find itself in continued northwest flow aloft, sandwiched between ridging over the southeastern CONUS and troughing over the Northeast. At the surface, an area of low pressure will sit over Atlantic Canada, with a long and poorly defined cold front extending back through the Mid Atlantic, just north of the forecast area. This front will sag south through the area on Friday, bringing a chance for additional convection. As in previous days, the environment will support intense rainfall rates with any convection that does pass through; LREF mean PW values range from 1.8-2 inches on Friday afternoon, well within the 90th percentile or higher when compared to climatology, and given already moist soils, flash flood risk could be higher than in typical summer thunderstorms. WPC has maintained a Day 3 Marginal (1/4) flash flood risk for our area to account for this. Additionally, at least moderate instability is likely to build ahead of the front, which could potentially support strong convection. Given some model guidance suggests the potential for additional shortwave impulses within broader northwest flow aloft, additional MCS type activity cannot be ruled out on Friday (although uncertainty remains high). That being said, upper level flow will be weak, with deep layer shear generally favored to remain under 30 kts across the forecast area, which would not conventionally support widespread severe weather. Even so, some machine learning guidance has been comparatively more aggressive in highlighting eastern Kentucky as a potential location for additional damaging winds. Given some of the signals in global models, it is still plausible that MCS activity could increase the potential for severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening, although confidence in this scenario remains very low. For now, NBM PoPs were maintained given a lack of baseline model agreement, but with the caveat that rain chances/timing will require some refining as uncertainty decreases.

By the weekend, the front will have passed through the forecast area. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge will continue to build into our area. This will usher in a period of hotter and drier weather, with high pressure working to suppress most convection through the weekend. Unfortunately, the aforementioned cold front will do little to bring down heat or humidity. Behind the front, temperatures will actually trend warmer in accordance with increased upper level ridging (highs likely in the 90s), and dewpoints will remain in the 70s. Accordingly, apparent temperatures will be warm, likely in the upper 90s or perhaps even the low triple digits on Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Overnight temperatures will only provide limited relief given a continued moist environment; although radiative conditions will be ideal, valleys may only end up being a few degrees cooler than ridges at most, with typical valley fog formation possible overnight.

Early next week will mark a return to more quasi zonal flow aloft as an upper level trough begins to dig toward Kentucky and ridging retreats to the southwest, initiating a return to a somewhat more active period. Notably, an approaching cold front on Monday will bring renewed shower and storm chances. In comparison to the previous cold front, the air mass behind this front will be marginally drier, with dewpoints expected to fall into the mid to upper 60s in most locations. High temperatures will also be around 5 degrees cooler for most locations, marking a return to a more typical August weather regime.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026

The scope is temporarily mostly clear over the JKL aviation area at the 06Z TAF issuance, however more storms are poised to enter from the northwest. The most intense storms, with a potential for strong winds, could impact some of the TAF terminals later this morning with poor aviation conditions. Also, there will be some near term fog around ahead of these storms with restrictions possible at a few of the TAF sites. There is another possibility of storms later today. However, there is lower confidence in the later parts of the forecast, and accordingly only PROB30 groups were used in TAFs. Overall confidence in how this plays out is also rather low and prone to amendments. Away from any storms, winds will be light and variable through the period. In storms, winds could gust to 30 kts or more.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.