textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions are expected through Friday. Afternoon heat indices are forecast to top 100 degrees in many locations today through Friday, with Wednesday and Thursday most likely being the hottest days.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times from late Thursday through the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 214 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026

The longwave pattern will feature amplified flow across the majority of the CONUS through early next week. Troughing will generally dominate west of the Rockies. A more anomalous ridge, initially sprawled from Kentucky through the Carolinas into Thursday, will temporarily dampen and retrograde into the Plains/Central CONUS. The ridge center will then strengthen once again as it anchors further southwest over the Central to Southern Plains to end the period early next week. Guidance does vary from run to run and model to model over the placement and strength of this feature by the end of the period. However, this general pattern will allow for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to be subject to northwesterly flow aloft, with periodic shortwaves working southeast across the region. While model agreement is solid through Thursday to Friday, detail differences bring more spread regarding weather specifics by the end of the weekend and into early next weekend.

Confidence remains high for the hot temperatures to continue across eastern Kentucky through the end of the work week. Highs will remain in the mid 90s for most locations on Thursday, potentially again nearing daily records on Thursday of 96 from 2011 for both JKL and LOZ. Pending the degree of clouds and convection highs may near records again on Friday (94 degrees from 2007 for both JKL and LOZ). With the upper level ridge axis overhead, expect the associated subsidence to keep a lid on convection and cumulus through Thursday. The ridge will lose its grip by Friday, with a surface cold front approaching from the north. Rain chances will return across the area, mainly in the isolated range, with one more hot and humid day expected for Friday, as temperatures return to the lower 90s, coupled with dew points in the lower 70s. As the boundary sags south over the weekend and a couple of shortwaves pass, there will be additional chances for convection. These look to peak diurnally on Saturday, though only in the isolated to scattered range of coverage, with the front in the area and a shortwave passing near peak heating. Low level northwesterly to northeasterly flow moves in behind the front, putting an end to the 90-degree days for the entire area by Sunday, with highs returning to more seasonable 80s for early September. While PoPs look to lower into early next week, the lack of surface features and the lingering northwest flow aloft continues to preclude going completely dry for any given period at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026

There are no changes to the forecast and forecast reasoning.

High pressure ridging will dominate through the period. Valley fog with IFR or worse conditions along rivers, larger creeks, and area lakes will burn off around 13z. TAF sites should not be impacted. Diurnal cumulus of 4-5 kft develops after 15z, with an isolated shower possible near the Virginia/Tennessee borders, but with VFR conditions remaining prevalent. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable or generally southwest to west at less than 10 kts through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.