textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Clear patches overnight may allow for some locally dense valley fog into Sunday morning.

- A warming trend engages on Sunday, with temperatures to climb to much above normal readings on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1110 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just lowering the PoPs and removing the thunder for the rest of the night. Did also include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching the area from the west while lifting a warm front through northern Kentucky. An MCV is noted also approaching the area from the west and that is helping to kick off strong to severe thunderstorms to the northwest of the JKL CWA. The latest CAMs guidance suggests that locations north of I-64 could still be brushed by a storm or two with a potential for strong wind gusts with these into mid evening. Otherwise, more spotty and weaker convection may occur for the rest of the area into the first part of the night. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 70s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 60s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with a tweaking of the PoPs through the night per the latest radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 515 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

An amplified ridging pattern yields much warmer than normal temperatures across Eastern Kentucky for the start of the next work week, but thankfully, that warmth will not persist for long. As the week progresses, shortwave impulses will rotate around the base of a broad, positively-tilted trough draped from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest. The passage of those disturbances will culminate in the suppression of the ridge, which places the Greater Ohio River Valley in a regime of quasi-zonal flow for the second half of the work week.

At the surface, this pattern translates to hot and mostly dry conditions on Monday before a slow-moving cold front approaches the forecast area around midweek. Given the subsidence and geopotential height rises observed across the area in Monday's forecast guidance, it is progged to be the warmest day of the period. Efficient diurnal mixing should allow highs to climb into the lower half of the 90s, especially in the deeper valleys of Eastern KY (like the Big Sandy River Basin). Blended NBM guidance continues to run on the higher side of the ensemble envelope, so in coordination with neighboring WFOs, Monday's highs were blended towards lower percentiles. Dewpoints will lag behind in upper 50s and lower 60s, so heat indices should not be much different than the ambient temperature. Sensitive populations may experience heat-related impacts with prolonged exposure on Monday, but any instances will be isolated. While Monday's forecast highs will challenge records, they will not approach heat headline criteria. This early season does coincidentally coincide with the 2026 interagency Heat Safety Week campaign, and interested parties are encouraged to tune in to official NWS social media platforms for infographics related to heat headline criteria, heat illness/impacts, and heat risk mitigation.

Low level flow becomes breezier and adopts a more southwesterly orientation on Tuesday. This should correspond with increasing moisture return and thus relatively greater sky cover and slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s on Tuesday afternoon. With more widespread dewpoints in the 60s, diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast. The previously-mentioned boundary lags off to the NW of the CWA on Tuesday, meaning that any convection will lack the frontal forcing and dynamic support aloft to be on the stronger side. However, that forcing looks to arrive by Wednesday and produce more widespread shower and storms. The convective parameter spacing for Wednesday's activity is conditional on what happens upstream the previous day, so it is difficult to pinpoint those specifics at the current temporal range. However, the stalling nature of the boundary could cause multiple rounds of convectively-bolstered rainfall to track across the region. Most of this rain should prove highly beneficial to the ongoing drought, and it will also work to lower temperatures back towards seasonal averages through the end of the period.

However, if it stalls out for too long over the forecast area amidst the quasi-zonal flow aloft, the repetitive rainfall will get old. There remains some model uncertainty on where this stall occurs and how long it persists for. WPC has accordingly outlined a broad- brushed Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the region on Wednesday. Widespread, significant flash flooding is not the most likely forecast solution, but isolated instances cannot be entirely ruled out if stronger storms track over the same place multiple times in a row. Forecast confidence will increase once this boundary's approach enters the temporal range of the higher- resolution, convective-allowing forecast model suite. For now, confidence is highest in the thermal sensible weather effects from this boundary. Expect highs to drop into the 70s to close out the work week, with overnight lows returning to the 50s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Scattered showers/thunderstorms were present at the start of the period to the west and northwest of the aviation forecast area meaning VFR conditions for all terminals at 00Z. However, additional thunderstorms may yet develop, especially as we move deeper into the evening. This is most likely over northern portions of the area, especially near/north of I-64 for KIOB and KSYM, and could bring localized IFR or worse conditions. This activity is expected to diminish and exit to the north during the late night. Should there be only limited clouds left behind, valley fog would be a concern. This would be most likely in the southern portion of the forecast area and could result in localized VLIFR conditions in the valleys. However, this is not currently expected to affect any of the TAF sites. VFR conditions then return to the entire area early Sunday morning lasting through the afternoon and beyond.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.