textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front brings chances for showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, followed by additional chances at midweek.

- Patchy frost is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning in deeper rural valleys and hollows - mainly away from mainstem rivers.

UPDATE

Issued at 725 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026

Just a quick refresh of the grids to add in the latest surface obs but to also touch up the PoP based on radar trends. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 237 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026

Tuesday, in the wake of a chilly morning, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 70s across the area under light and variable winds and mostly sunny skies. Eastern Kentucky will briefly be under high pressure. The next approaching system comes from Southern Manitoba. Through Tuesday this area of low pressure progresses east towards the Great Lakes. With a lax pressure gradient, (under 5 mb difference across the area) overnight, along with light winds and clear skies to start off with, a rather large ridge-valley split may develop as sheltered valleys and hollows decouple heading in the evening. At current, lows are expected to range from the low to mid 40s in the most sheltered valleys, while ridge tops remain in the low to mid 50s. With dew points expected to be in the lower 40s, some fog formation is possible, mainly along mainstem river valleys.

Approaching Wednesday morning the above mentioned system will have be over the Great Lakes, with its cold front remaining just west of the area. Increased cloud cover and wind is expected closer to Wednesday morning, so any fog that does develop overnight may mix out by early Wednesday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday with the frontal passage, though no storms are currently expected to be severe. Wednesday evening, after the front has moved through skies will clear out and winds will veer to a northwesterly direction. Temperatures will likely cool into the mid 40s.

Thursday, high pressure builds back into the area leading to mostly sunny skies. The area will still remain under light northerly winds, so afternoon temperatures may be a bit cooler, in the upper 60s for most. At current, low temperatures are generally thought to be in the mid 40s for Thursday night, however, forecasted dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s, along with clear skies, light winds, and a weak pressure gradient over the region, sheltered valleys may decouple heading into the evening, leading to a cooler low than ridge- tops that may stay somewhat mixed.

Friday through Sunday, model spread increases. However the overall trend is for warmer temperatures, reaching the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Ensembles do hint at another system towards in this timeframe, but confidence is low on timing. As a result the NBM has smoothed isolated to scattered POPs over these days.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing across all sites with this issuance. Scattered showers and moving across eastern Kentucky but are largely staying clear from terminals. Should a shower move over a site, a brief reduction in category is possible. Better chances for showers/storms build in for the overnight as a cold front crosses the region. Guidance has sites staying VFR but low-end VFR to upper-end MVFR is possible through frontal passage. Once showers move out, clouds will begin to lift and dissipate. Winds will be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.