textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected until early this evening from the combination of low humidity, sunny to mostly sunny skies, near- record warm conditions, dry fuels, and breezy conditions. Burning is not recommended as fire behavior could become erratic.

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest periods will be today as well as Tuesday through Saturday of this week. New daily record high temperatures will possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday and persist through much of this week as the area will be on the far eastern/southeastern periphery of an active storm track from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS will remain persistent during most of the long term period. A mean, positively tilted upper level trough will be situated mainly over the western half of the CONUS, with an associated, wavering frontal boundary from the southern plains to Great Lakes. Ascending flow off the gulf (with higher moisture content) will be more predominant further to our west and northwest, closer to the aforementioned frontal boundary, and that is where the higher POP will be in general. However, occasional shortwave troughs pressing into the upper level ridge as they pass through the flow will probably be enough to bring scattered showers/thunderstorms into our area at times. The GFS and ECMWF agree on the two most prominent waves giving us our highest POPs on Thursday into Thursday night and on Saturday night into Sunday. Without any cold frontal passages through Saturday, much above temperatures will dominate the period, with temperatures influenced by the potential occurrence of clouds/precip. The most significant wave aloft will be the one next weekend, which is expected to be strong enough to finally bring another cold frontal passage, with somewhat lower temperatures by Sunday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites at the 18Z TAF issuance. Breezy southwest winds are starting to pick up with sustained winds from 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Also, fair-weather cumulus clouds are starting to develop. This will persist through the rest of the afternoon and early evening. Toward the overnight, clouds will start to increase in coverage and winds slacken off a little bit but as a low-level jet develops ahead of an approaching cold front, surface winds will start to pick up again out of the southwest. Winds are forecast to be gusty through the entire column and therefore opted to shift away from LLWS since its more of a turbulent mixing regime. As the front approaches the region, increasing shower chances will exists but mainly after 12Z through the rest of the period. All terminals have a PROB30 for this timeframe with KIOB getting a prevailing shower group as that site has the best chances of seeing shower activity Monday morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.