textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue, with the greatest areal coverage during the afternoon and evening hours and on Friday/Saturday. - Slow-moving showers and storms could yield isolated instances of flash flooding in the locations where they are most persistent.

- Near-normal temperatures (highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s) persist through the end of the forecast period.

UPDATE

Issued at 1014 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026

Showers and storms have diminished over the last hour or two, leaving the area in the lower 70s. The forecast has been freshened using the latest surface observations. Patchy fog or low stratus may develop over the next several hours. No major changes were made to the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 503 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026

The long term forecast period gets off to a wet start, with mid/upper level troughing digging deeper into the Greater Ohio River Valley from Friday into Saturday. Embedded shortwave disturbances are progged to propagate through this troughing pattern and towards the forecast area in this time frame. The presence of these impulses will bolster the areal coverage of these days' showers and storms beyond the typical isolated to scattered summertime pop-ups experienced earlier in the week. While the related increase in cloud cover should keep highs in the mid 80s, the highest precipitation chances will still align with the diurnal heating/instability cycle. PoPs generally fall in the numerous to widespread coverage categories on Friday (55-75%) and Saturday (50-80%) thanks to the better support aloft.

Most of this late week convective activity will come in the form of generic thunderstorms, as modeled wind shear remains below the 20 knot threshold. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely, but high temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 70s will yield 1500+ J/kg of SB-CAPE in the afternoon and evening hours. Ensemble mean soundings continue to resolve high freezing levels above 15k ft and cloud layer winds in the 15-20kt range with saturated thermodynamic profiles. PWATs remain in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range in this time frame, and all of the above suggests that these storms will be efficient rainmakers. Given the potential for antecedent rainfall during the short term forecast period, there could be pockets of already-saturated soils scattered around the CWA before the better forcing arrives this weekend. This means that the rain from Friday and Saturday's storms could prove excessive. Isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible in locales that experience multiple rounds of slow-moving storms multiple days in a row. WPC has accordingly maintained Marginal (Level 1/4) EROs for the entire JKL CWA on both Friday and Saturday

Recent forecast guidance continues to suggest that the disturbance responsible for Saturday's activity will be better-defined than the previous impulse on Friday. On the backside of that second, relatively sharper shortwave trough, the flow aloft will adopt a more zonal orientation. That quasi-zonal flow persists into the early states of next week and advects a drier continental airmass into the midlevels. At the same time, a ridge will be amplifying across the Southwestern and Central CONUS. The resultant midlevel height rises and subsidence indicate that Eastern Kentucky will get a break from the more widespread rain chances on Sunday, but this comes with a cost. With less clouds in the sky, efficient diurnal warming should allow highs to climb into the upper half of the 80s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. While PWATs (mean values between 1.4 and 1.6 inches) will be relatively lower than they were this weekend, there will still be enough humidity for widespread apparent temperatures in the 90s. A few heat index readings near 100 degrees cannot be ruled out, and the atmosphere may still be able to squeeze out a few summertime pop-up showers/storms during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday and Monday. Rain chances ramp back up again on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the specifics of that precipitation forecast remain shrouded in uncertainty. Model spread begins to increase in the latter portions of the forecast period. It is plausible that shortwave disturbances will propagate around the northeastern periphery of the ridge and bring chances for more organized storms to the forecast area. The highest late-period PoPs are generally resolved over northern portions of the forecast area, and this aligns with some of the available extended-range convective guidance. Trends in that guidance will be monitored in future forecast packages, and interested parties are accordingly encouraged to stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday) ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026

At 00Z TAF issuance, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are moving through the forecast area, with much of the activity along and ahead of a line extending from KSYM, KJKL, and KJAU (TN). These storms should taper off in the next 1-3 hours across eastern Kentucky. PROB30 groups for KSYM, KJKL, and KSJS are in place for this. Some models were hinting at fog overnight at most terminals (KIOB, KSYM, KSJS, KJKL). Confidence was too low to include FG in the TAFs as boundary layer winds just above the surface are modeled to remain elevated, which would favor a low stratus deck instead. Some thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon with diurnal heating. Winds will remain light and variable before becoming light out of the southwest through Thursday afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.