textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring dry and cool early autumn weather into early next week.

- Warmer temperatures will make a comeback late next week, along with our next potential for rain.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 212 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

Eastern Kentucky will begin the period on the far outer fringes of a large mature low pressure system along or just offshore the Mid-Atlantic seaboard, with surface high pressure ridging extending south from a surface high in southern Canada. This system will eventually lift northeast early next week, with weak ridging building over the area. Complexity in the forecast increases significantly toward the latter half of next week as models struggle on the timing, location, and strength of the next upper low/trough that moves into the middle of the country, which will eventually bring the next chance of precipitation.

Confidence is high in the temperature trends through the long term period, with cool and dry conditions through this weekend giving way to an increasingly warmer and more humid regime as the upper flow transitions from a northerly to more southwesterly direction. By the middle of next week, highs should be returning to above normal, though to what degree is somewhat uncertain, with NBM deterministic values in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday and Thursday, which is on the lower end of the probabilistic envelope. Lows will also increase from the 40s for lows this weekend to the 50s and 60s by the second half of next week. Confidence is also low as to the timing of arrival of possible precipitation associated with the next system moving into the center of the country next week, with low chances (generally around 15 to 25 percent) introduced to the grids beginning Wednesday night and gradually increasing (to 15 to 35 percent) through the end of the long-term period Thursday night.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

Valley fog is expected to develop late tonight and last into Saturday morning before dissipating. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, but is not forecast to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.