textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue for the rest of the week, with the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening hours. - The repeated rounds of slow-moving showers and storms could yield isolated instances of flash flooding in the Wednesday to Saturday time frame.

- Near-normal temperatures (highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s) persist through the end of the forecast period.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 445 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026

The bulk of the extended will be a continuation of damp weather with a threat for thunderstorms and excessive rainfall lingering through Friday and probably through the weekend. The diurnal cycle should dominate the timing of the convection each day. Later, broad troughing is still on track to spread south from Canada into the Ohio Valley closing out the work week and heading into the weekend - likely bringing more shower and thunderstorm chances while continuing this damp pattern that started this month.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long wave pattern will be amplified through early next week, as stronger ridge centers dominate from the western Atlantic as well as the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, a deeper low will be churning over Hudson Bay, with broad cyclonic flow fanned south across the north central CONUS. This cyclonic flow will dampen and become more confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late this weekend and into early next week. Diurnally-driven convection will threaten each day across eastern Kentucky, although areal coverage should generally lessen by the latter half of the weekend and into early next week, given the weaker forcing in place and decreasing PWATs across the region.

Wednesday will likely be the day of better areal convective coverage, as a remnant upper level low weakens but also drifts north towards the Commonwealth. PWATs look to increase to the 1.7-1.8 inch range, coupled with freezing levels above 15k feet agl, and storm motions of less than 10 kts. As such, isolated flash flooding will be possible where thunderstorms are most persistent. Residual troughing will then linger across the Ohio Valley from Thursday through Saturday, before easing up more so Sunday and Monday. Again, this should result in more limited convective coverage each day, although given the successive days of storm potential and continued meager storm motions, isolated flash flooding will threaten at times through the end of the work week. Highs will slowly moderate each day, starting out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, and reaching the mid to upper 80s by early next week. Lows will average in the mid to upper 60s. Humidity levels will remain elevated throughout the period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026

We are still in a pattern with high pressure generally in charge to our north and a boundary and upper level disturbance to our south and east. Our location between the two has led to mostly stable conditions across the TAF sites, with another threat of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in the far SE, generally along the TN/VA borders (closer to the disturbance and away from the TAF sites). That being said, sufficient mixing and moisture from this system has led to a substantial CU deck across eastern KY. CIGS seem to be scattered at around 3k feet in most places, but if they do increase to BKN, this could result in some borderline MVFR conditions through the afternoon. These clouds should dissipate during the overnight hours, but can't rule out some mid to high clouds taking their place. Tonight, fog can be anticipated once more in the valleys, but should not affect any of the TAF sites. A similar situation will be on tap for tomorrow, with diurnal CU and showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon/evening. The main difference is that these POPs will expand across much of eastern KY during the afternoon, including all of the TAF sites. Did not include in TAFs at this time, but most locations could see PROB30s starting around 16Z, just at the end of the TAF time. Winds though the period will generally be from the north to northeast and light (under 10 kts).

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.