textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front brings scattered to widespread thunderstorms tonight and Thursday, with a few strong wind gusts and localized heavy rain and flooding possible.

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air arrives this weekend and continues into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows that the weak high pressure in place over the state has been worn down even further during these past 24 hours. This entails some mid level clouds and light showers dissipating through the northern parts of the CWA this evening. We remain south of the main front residing west to east over the northern Ohio Valley while an area of low pressure over southern Missouri moves this way. Currently, temperatures vary from the upper 70s for most of the northern parts of the area - owing to the clouds and showers that lingered there - and the lower 80s in the sunnier south. Meanwhile, amid light southerly winds of up to 5 mph, dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to incorporate the current CAMs thoughts on the dying MCS that is progged to slip into the area well after midnight. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026

Some showers and storms will be possible at the start of the extended period ahead of a sagging cold front. The primary corridor for pre-frontal convection will initially reside along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor toward the Tennessee border. Aloft, the broad pattern features a ridge over the western CONUS and a trough over the eastern CONUS. With broad troughing modeled over the Great Lakes/Northeast and a distinct shortwave axis extending south- southwestward through OH/IN/KY, mid-level forcing will lag behind the surface boundary. This lingering PVA combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates may support isolated to scattered post-frontal convection Friday afternoon, with the greatest chances remaining east of the Pottsville Escarpment. Given weak ambient shear, any activity that develops should remain pulse-like. While PWATs remain elevated between 1.3 and 1.6 inches (50th to 75th percentile) into Friday evening, significant mid-level drying will filter in from the northwest, as reflected by modeled 700 mb RH dropping into the teens. Clearing skies, calm winds, and strong subsidence/capping under high pressure will favor areas of fog overnight Friday, particularly within the river valleys.

An embedded shortwave within the longwave trough is modeled to dig out of northwestern Canada into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the weekend. A reinforcing cold front will cross Kentucky, though timing discrepancies maintain uncertainty in POPs. Regardless, precipitation chances should remain isolated, with the highest potential staying northeast of the forecast area.

High pressure briefly builds across eastern Kentucky early next week, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. Dew points lowering into the upper 50s and lower 60s will be a welcome relief from recent values in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dry weather persists through Tuesday before another shortwave propagates out of the Upper Midwest into the region mid-week, bringing isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and will likely hold into the first part of the night. Showers will be possible overnight into Thursday morning, and a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out as a, probably decaying, remnant MCS works into this part of the state well after midnight. Valley fog may also develop during the same time frame if clouds aren't too extensive. The precip or fog would bring sub-VFR conditions. During the mid to late morning timeframe, some MVFR ceilings are also a possibility. After a brief lull, additional - more scattered - storms may develop across the area into Thursday afternoon. Winds, away from any storm, will be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.