textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures rise to the middle and upper 80s by the start of the weekend. - Dry conditions remain in place through Saturday, but a pattern shift will bring daily shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region from Sunday into new work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 747 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026

A touch of fog is noted in the sheltered mainstem river valleys but that should burn off quickly during the next hour or two. Temperatures range from the mid 50s to low 60s across most of the area but will warm rapidly through the morning on their way into the 80s by the afternoon. Current forecast is largely on track, warranting only minor adjustments to bring the hourly forecast into line with the latest observations.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 546 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026

The long term period opens with upper level troughing over the Pacific Northwest and New England, with an upper level low over the Southern Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure will be located in Quebec, with a cold front draped into the Great Lakes region. As the upper level trough over the northeastern CONUS digs farther south, the surface low will progress southeast towards the Atlantic; concurrently, the associated cold front will also push slightly south, but with building upper level ridging over the Ohio Valley, a weak surface high will prevent the front from advancing into our area. This will keep rain chances low for our area overnight. Although cloud cover will increase throughout the night, skies will remain clear enough for a mild ridge/valley temperature split. MOS guidance suggests that some of our coolest spots could plummet into the upper 50s overnight; however, the potential for clouds was enough to hold off on a more pronounced ridge/valley split at this time, and MinTs were kept in the lower 60s for now, with valley fog expected yet again for mainstem river valleys.

Better rain chances will arrive in the forecast area during the day on Sunday as the closed upper level low lifts north from the Southern Plains. Given the associated broad area of positive vorticity advection aloft over the Ohio Valley, forcing will be more ideal for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, particularly in the northern portion of our area. These rain chances will be bolstered by additional moisture advection via southwesterly winds; LREF mean PWATs will be above the 90th percentile compared to climatology, with a moist air mass expected to be in place through the end of the forecast period. Shower/storm coverage is expected to diminish overnight Sunday with the loss of daytime heating.

Rain chances return during the day Monday as the upper level low lifts north and becomes less defined, taking on the form of a negatively tilted shortwave within broader troughing in the western and central CONUS. The eastward push of this wave will once again provide additional forcing for diurnally driven showers and storms. Surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic will induce a shift towards more southerly winds, but with rich moisture already in place, dewpoints will be in the upper 60s or perhaps even low 70s. Following Monday's rain chances, model guidance diverges with respect to the upper level pattern; however, additional rounds of intermittent showers and storms appear likely as broad troughing to our west will allow additional impulses to rotate into our forecast area. Also, slightly above average temperatures appear likely through the middle of next week as eastern Kentucky sits on the western side of the upper level ridging extending over the Southeast and into the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026

VFR conditions prevailed over the terminals at TAF issuance. Any localized fog in the deeper valleys at forecast issuance will burn off by 13 to 14Z but should not have any impacts on the TAF sites. Otherwise, high clouds will persist through the period and will be accompanied by a diurnally-driven shallow cumulus field from late morning through this afternoon. Light and variable winds will become southwesterly at less than 10 kts by ~15Z and continue through the early evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.