textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Leftover light snow showers and flurries will end today. Little to no additional accumulation is expected, but higher elevations along the Virginia border may see lingering activity through this afternoon.

- Southwest winds will gust between 25 and 35 mph Friday afternoon. These strong winds develop as temperatures briefly warm into the 40s ahead of the incoming storm system.

- Snow showers and potential squalls will develop Friday night into Saturday morning. Expect sudden visibility drops and slick roads as rain rapidly transitions to snow.

- A secondary push of polar air arrives Sunday and Monday with temperatures mainly below freezing.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 538 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026

A high amplified pattern has emerged over the CONUS. Analyzing 500- mb heights a ridge of high pressure dominates the area over the Western US, while a deep trough spills south from Manitoba and Western Ontario into the Central Plains. An area of low pressure will be embedded within this trough, located over the Upper Great Lakes region, Friday evening.

Models have some disparity over when frontal passages work their way through Eastern Kentucky in part due to differences in vorticity placement and evolution. Rain showers will begin early Friday evening, along a weak boundary, though low levels will be a tad dry and precip will likely wet-bulb down to the surface. This will lead to the column cooling and a changeover to rain-snow mix through the overnight. A changeover to all snow should happen a few hours prior to sunrise (before 7 am), with the passage of a cold front. Snow showers may have some snow squall characteristics and will have to be monitored as we get closer. Snow showers will continue through the day Saturday, with a second cold front passing through the region early Sunday morning, along the troughs axis. Cold air will be re- enforced across the area with Sunday not getting above the freezing mark. Sunday night, skies clear out behind the departing trough.

The next area of low pressure comes out of southern Manitoba on Sunday, progresses east into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday morning. A dry cold front associated with this low may move into portions of Eastern Kentucky on Monday, but upper level support may stop it from truly moving through the area before lifting northeast. Warmer air should begin to advect in beyond Tuesday. Scattered precip chances may exist at the end of the extended period, but ensemble and model guidance is divergent at this point of outcome.

Friday night, lows will hover around the freezing mark with highs Saturday recovering into the upper 30s to low 40s. Heading into Saturday night the multiple fronts were mentioned above. Low temperatures will drop into the teens and remain below freezing through Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 20s along the I-64 corridor, and mid to upper 20s south. Sunday night, valleys may decouple heading into the evening. This would lead to temperatures ranging from the low double digits (10-13 degrees) in the valleys and mid to upper teens along ridge tops. Monday, temperatures warm into tue upper 20s along the I-64 corridor and low to mid 30s south. Skies clear out Monday night and lows are expected to cool into the single digits to low double digits (8-13 degrees) in most spots. Tuesday remains below freezing with temperatures reaching the low to mid 20s along and north of the I-64 corridor and upper 20s south. At night, teens will return ahead of some warm air advecting back into the area. Wednesday and Thursday are marked with temperatures in the low to upper 40s, and lows mid 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026

Conditions were mainly a mix of VFR and MVFR at TAF issuance. Scattered snow showers were ongoing, especially in southeast KY, with perhaps some isolated IFR or worse conditions in the heavier showers.

The showers will be on the decline overnight and on Saturday morning, and will be the most persistent in southeast KY. Improvement to mainly VFR conditions is forecast overnight outside of southeast KY, and in southeast KY by early Thursday afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.