textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Steady rain arrives tonight and peaks Sunday. Rainfall between 0.50 and 1.25 inches will likely cause local rivers/streams to rise but significant hydro issues are not expected.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected next week with the warmest readings on Wednesday and Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 239 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026

Monday, a ridge aloft will move into the area through the day, as a surface high pressure builds through Monday afternoon. Clouds will generally decrease through the day, with light and variable winds, and temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Heading into Monday evening, high pressure moves off to the east, positioning Eastern Kentucky in southerly flow through Wednesday. With light southerly flow, fairly clear skies, and after a fresh rainfall, temperatures are expected to decouple in the valleys, leading to lows Monday night in the low to mid 30s in the valleys, and upper 30s to low 40s along ridge tops.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see warmer air advect into the area, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s each afternoon. Overnight lows also modify, ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s Tuesday night, and the low 50s Wednesday night.

Wednesday, a low pressure over the Northern Plains will feature a warm front pushing north of the area early Wednesday, as well as trailing cold front through the Ozarks. Gusty winds are looking likely during the day, ahead of the cold front. GFS bufkit soundings continue to show mixed-layer momentum transfer supporting gusts of 25-30 knots, however the GEFS ensemble shows strongest gusts north of the area, with low probabilties of reaching the above wind gusts. Chances of seeing strong wind gusts increase further north and west. Shower chances remain scattered through most of Thursday. Temperatures look to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s through the day.

While low pressure moves through the Ohio Valley, a southern stream ejects of the of the Intermountain west and Central Plains through Thursday. This will lead to increased shower chances Thursday night into Friday as another cold front looks to move through the area. LREF probabilities for 24-hour rainfall totals of at least 0.25 inch continue to range from 10 to 20 percent ending 7 PM Saturday. A seasonably cold air mass will filter in behind this cold front heading into next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026

Surface high pressure will keep VFR conditions going through evening before an approaching surface low brings increasing and lowering clouds after 03Z. As this system gets closer, shower chances will increase at western terminals - KSYM, KLOZ and KSME - initially. Better chances - a near certainty - for showers arrives closer to 09Z for all sites. Along with higher rain chances, terminal CIGs will drop into category MVFR early Sunday morning falling to IFR within a few hours from west to east - remaining there through the rest of the TAF period. Winds look to be light and variable through the whole of the TAF window.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.