textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected in many locations, mainly Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with isolated heavy rainfall possible.

- Dry weather will arrive to finish the week and last into next week, with cooler temperatures persisting.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 332 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026

The long term period will bring pleasant fall weather to eastern Kentucky. At the start of the period, an upper level trough will be located to the east of the forecast area, with fairly amplified midlevel ridging over the Great Plains. This ridge will keep us in a fairly stagnant yet delightful pattern for the duration of the forecast period. At the surface, low end rain chances (around 20%) will linger through Thursday evening, particularly near the TN line as the trough departs; otherwise, expect increasing sunshine throughout the day. With a strong coastal low in the Atlantic and building high pressure in the Great Lakes, winds will become increasingly northeasterly on Thursday, bringing in cooler and drier air. Dewpoints will plummet into the 50s and low 60s Thursday, before dipping into the low 50s and then 40s by the weekend. High temperatures will also be very reminiscent of a true fall, ranging from the upper 60s to upper 70s across the forecast area from Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures will be warmest in the southwest, closer to the ridge.

Given stubborn ridging over the central CONUS, weather will remain clear and dry throughout the period. Ridge valley splits will be favored each night, providing an additional chill that should further enhance that beautiful fall feeling. MOS guidance suggests lows could dip into the mid 40s in sheltered valley locations on Friday morning, and this seems reasonable given expected clear skies and a weak pressure gradient. MinTs could be even cooler as dewpoints continue to drop going into the weekend, with low 40s possible in the most sheltered locations. Even as model spread increases somewhat early next week, confidence remains high that our dry pattern should persist, with virtually all guidance keeping PoPs to near nonexistent levels. Temperatures may increase somewhat early next week as ridging attempts to build eastward, with the warmest deterministic guidance suggesting highs could perhaps reach the low 80s by the end of the period. Even so, no impactful weather is anticipated.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026

Widely varying conditions were present to start the period, with VFR at some places near the TN and VA borders, but a mix of MVFR, IFR, and worse was present to the north, stretching all the way to Ohio River. The general scenario was still persisting into late afternoon. An improvement to at least MVFR is forecast for a time this evening, but confidence is meager. Guidance for the night time period was conflicting. NAM forecast soundings suggested that flow in the lowest levels would veer to the east or southeast tonight, with weak downsloping eating into the lowest clouds. Have allowed for this scenario, with the worst conditions lingering in the western portion of the area furthest from downslope influence.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.