textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record warmth will end abruptly as temperatures plummet from the 60s/low 70s this evening into the 20s by Monday afternoon.

- A potent cold front with a gusty squall will race across the area tonight between ~11 PM and 3 AM.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect over all of eastern Kentucky for tonight and in northern counties on Monday. Strong winds may blow around loose objects, bring down tree limbs, and cause a few power outages.

- A few light snow showers or flurries are possible Monday into Monday night, as much colder air settles in.

- Winter-like temperatures will persist through the end of 2025 and into the beginning of 2026.

UPDATE

Issued at 1057 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025

Minor modifications were made to the forecast for the remainder of tonight, including for PoPs and hourly temperatures. Overall, the forecast is on track. A convective line of showers will generally weaken with time as it crosses the forecast area between around 0430z and 0830z, but a few damaging wind gusts will be possible especially for our northwestern counties in and near the Bluegrass region.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025

Warm and breezy conditions continue this evening, most places are in the mid to upper 60s, though warmer locales remain near 70 degrees. Looking upstream, the potent cold front with multiple- severe warned storms and occasional tornado warnings stretches from Indianapolis to Paducah. Guidance is still in good agreement showing this line beginning to weaken as it crosses the Commonwealth and becomes starved for instability in the lower dew point (mainly 50s) air mass that is in place over much of the LMK and all of the JKL CWAs and any dew point rises will be limited. Even without a widespread severe weather threat, the strong jet and forcing dynamics will still support strong winds developing this evening and peaking around the time of the frontal passage. For locations north of the Mountain Parkway, the Wind Advisory now calls for wind gusts up to 50 mph.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 358 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2025

The models start out in good agreement with an amplified long wave pattern in place. A deep closed low will be established over southeastern Canada, with a prominent trough extending southward through the eastern third of the U.S. Meanwhile, a persistent ridge will be the rule across the West. The cutoff low will gyre around Hudson Bay through the close of 2025 and the opening of 2026, before gradually relenting by this weekend. Details on how quickly this takes place as well as the evolution of inbound southern stream energy remain murky at this time, given the large model spread. As such, have stayed fairly close to the blended guidance regarding precipitation chances and the temperature profile.

Tuesday will be cold and blustery across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures likely staying below the freezing mark at most locations, while westerly winds of around 10 mph make it feel like the teens most of the day. Surface high pressure will be positioned to our southwest Tuesday night, with some influx of clouds within the broader cyclonic flow established across most locations east of the Mississippi River. Lows will dip into the lower 20s, with a few teens possible within the deeper hollows along and southeast of KY-80. Better return flow will engage on Wednesday out ahead of the next approaching clipper-type storm system. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 30s north of the Mountain Parkway, to the mid 40s bordering Tennessee. The clipper will bring the next chance of light snow to eastern Kentucky to ring in the new year. This system continues to look fairly moisture-starved, with the brunt of the upper level support likely staying to our northeast. As such, impacts should be more limited as it looks right now.

Temperatures will cool off a bit behind this boundary for the start of 2026, and then it remains to be seen how quickly readings modify, depending on the pace of the Canadian upper level low losing its grip in the East. The GFS remains colder, while the ECMWF is warmer, with lots of spread on either side. The next weather maker will move in by this weekend, with modest precip chances holding this run, as the GFS remains shunted further southeast with the low track and associated moisture. The 12z ECMWF has also trended further southeast compared to its 00z counterpart, but this will continue to modulate in subsequent runs. The low-confidence forecast temperatures will average near to slightly below normal for early January.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday) ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST MON DEC 29 2025

Cold front with a thin line of showers will continue to cross eastern Kentucky and exit east by 08z or 09z. Mainly MVFR conditions will persist behind the front before improving slightly for the daytime hours. Light snow showers or flurries are possible from late morning onward with associated visibility reductions, but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Southwest winds locally gusting in excess of 40 kts with the frontal passage will switch to westerly behind the boundary and relax slightly through the remainder of the night before turning gustier again during the day on Monday with gusts of 25 to 35 kts commonplace. Winds will diminish further after 00z Tuesday but still remain in the range of 8 to 12 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ044-050>052- 060-104-106.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for KYZ058-059- 068-069-079-080-083>088-107>120.