textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend, with colder weather expected to arrive early next week. - Periodic rain chances will occur through much of the holiday week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1154 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

Continuing to monitor the precipitation coverage this evening. Ended up doing some pop adjustments based on the current trends and hi-res models. Ended up adjusting throughout the rest of the night and into the first part of tomorrow as well. Ran weather grids to match as well. Also loaded in the latest observations to see how temperature drops were doing now that thicker cloud cover and some showers were ongoing. It seems that temperatures are starting to moderate more, so we may have hit our overnight lows already in some of the deeper valley locations in the NE. The models are continuing to suggest less llvl wind sheer overnight compared to their earlier solutions. In response to this, did increase surface winds just a bit overnight - which also matches ongoing trends, especially in the SW. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 659 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

Forecast seems to be in relatively good shape right now. MVFR and lower clouds are continuing to spread over much of eastern Kentucky. Initial temperatures in the eastern valleys have started to drop, but expect them to level out as clouds continue to move in over the next few hours. Loaded in the latest observational temperatures and tried to attenuate the falling temps into the ongoing forecast for cloud cover and moderating temps overnight. It remains breezy in the SW counties as of this update time, and there is some possibility this can continue into the overnight, especially with any showers that occur. Will continue to monitor shower activity, and update timing/pop grids as needed over the next few hours. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 330 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

The first several days of the long term period will feature a frontal boundary wavering back and forth over the region. This may result in rain or drizzle at times, but with west to northwest upper level flow and a lack of significant systems otherwise, any precip should be relatively light. The frontal position will be a key factor in temperatures. Latest model runs show it just to our south at dawn on Wednesday, then progressing north and east through the area as a warm front on Wednesday night, leaving us in a mild air mass to start the day on Christmas. Models have now trended cooler later on Christmas day in our northern counties as the front drops back south as a cold front and then stalls over KY. There is potential for a forecast temperature bust on Christmas due to the exact position of the front being critical. Regardless of how far south the front makes it, it is still forecast to shift north and east as a warm front Christmas night and Friday, putting us back into an unseasonably mild air mass as we progress into the weekend.

Definitive change is still on course later in the weekend. Pattern amplification is expected as an upper trough drops southeast over the eastern CONUS early in the new week, with a closed low developing and tracking somewhere through the region of the Great Lakes, New England, and southeast Canada. This allows a substantial cold front to pass through our area on Saturday night or Sunday (there's still timing uncertainty in models), with winter temperatures arriving Sunday and carrying forward. At this time it would appear that significant precipitation associated with the front would be tapering off before the atmosphere becomes cold enough to support snow.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

With strong return flow, BKN to OVC MVFR CIGS have taken over at all TAF sites. Scattered rain showers are expected throughout the night, with better chances at KSYM and KSJS over the next few hours. Kept VCSH to account for this. Rain should taper off during the early afternoon hours Tuesday, but only briefly. An incoming cold front will increase rain chances again late Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Unfortunately with this pattern, CIGS don't stand much chance for improvement. In fact, by this evening, it's likely that all TAF sites will have dropped below IFR. Winds are also a concern. Models are continuing to lesson the amount of llvl wind sheer, so went ahead and removed it for most of the TAF sites. None of the TAF sites are picking up on any WS so far, so feel this is the right move. That being said, stronger wind gusts are still being felt at SME, and prevailing winds are still being felt at most TAF sites. In addition, any shower that moves through could easily transfer some higher gusts down to the surface. Increased the surface winds a bit from the previous forecast to hopefully account for this shift.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.