textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A messy weather event is on track for tonight and Tuesday, with a good potential for wintery precipitation, especially north of the Mountain Parkway.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder than normal.

- The pattern will turn active towards the weekend with additional chances of precipitation.

UPDATE

Issued at 1059 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025

The forecast is on track, so no substantive changes were needed to the forecast other than the blend in the latest hourly observations and interpolate to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 812 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025

No substantive changes were made as early morning obs were blended into the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025

Tuesday evening opens with cloudy conditions which are expected to slowly improving through the night as surface high pressure builds into the area for Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night bottom out in the lower 20s, with upper 20s across far Eastern Kentucky, such as Pike and Floyd counties.

High pressure keeps Eastern Kentucky dry Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures rising into the upper 30s to low 40s each day. Increasing clouds are expected through Wednesday night, but not before valley locations decouple and drop into the low to mid 20s. Ridge-tops may stay elevated in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds increase from nearby systems both north and south of the area, although dry conditions are still expected through Thursday.

The next system with potential to cause active weather for the area stems from a short wave trough in the Gulf States. While this is going on a northern stream of energy transiting southeastern Canada is also taking place. A baroclinic zone will develop from the lower Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee Valley.

With the time of year, strength and timing of storms deeply matters in regard to precip-type. At current, deeper moisture and warmth will be slung toward eastern Kentucky Friday into Saturday, with precipitation chances remaining around the 60-70% range. Most will fall as rain, with the exception of the early morning on Friday, where enough cold air might be in place for light snow. Another low end precip chance remains for later in the weekend, Sunday, with another passing cold front. Precip chances for that storm remains in the 20-35% range. With uncertainty increasing beyond Thursday, ensemble temperature spread increases, and the plausible range of temperatures expands to a 10 degree range Friday and beyond, although the median temperature is generally in the low to mid 40s each day.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1233 PM EST MON DEC 1 2025

MVFR ceilings continue north of the Mountain Parkway, and as of 1730z were slowly rising and beginning to show initial signs of trying to scatter out over the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, VFR conditions under clear or fair skies were occurring. Clouds and precipitation are forecast to overtake the area from the south and west between 01z and 06z, with conditions deteriorating to generally IFR or worse. The precipitation is expected to be rain for most of the forecast area tonight, except for a wintery mix north of the Mountain Parkway. Conditions will improve from northwest to southeast toward the end of the period, but models differ on the timing of the end of precipitation as well as how quickly conditions improve.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106.