textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend continues through Friday, with forecast highs in the low to mid 80s.

- Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm could affect northern and eastern portions of the area on Wednesday.

- More widespread shower and storm chances enter the forecast on Friday night into Saturday and then again early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026

No major changes made to the public grids aside from touch-ups related to preparing the 00Z TAFs. The latest surface obs were added into the latest update but otherwise, forecast remains on track. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The long term forecast period opens on the precipice of a pattern change here in Eastern Kentucky. The dominant Southeastern CONUS ridging that kept the early- to mid- week sensible weather dry and warm persists into Friday morning before a series of shortwave troughing disturbances suppress it this weekend. As the ridging erodes, atmospheric flow orients itself in a manner that favors more effective moisture return. As those disturbances approach, they introduce periodic rain chances to the forecast between Friday and Monday and mark a shift to a more active weather pattern. While it is true that some of this activity could come in the form of thunderstorms, the associated rainfall will prove highly beneficial to ongoing drought and fire weather concerns in the commonwealth. Widespread severe storms are not expected through the remainder of this week, but a more vigorous disturbance could lead to some stronger storms early next week. The details surrounding that set-up remain course at the current temporal range, but forecast confidence is high before then. The antecedent weather pattern favors efficient diurnal mixing on Thursday and Thursday night. A surface high pressure system will be traversing across southeastern portions of the CWA as a midlevel ridge axis propagates directly overhead. Light west-southwesterly winds will accordingly advect warm air into the forecast area, but the continental nature of this airmass will limit the amount of available moisture. High temperatures climb into the 80s area-wide on Thursday afternoon, and the baseline deterministic NBM data used to populate the long term grids is actually on the lower side of the ensemble envelope. As such, Thursday's highs may outperform current expectations, and they could come close to the modeled convective temperature thresholds. Some forecast guidance tries to develop some diurnally driven showers in the eastern portions of the forecast, but this appears unlikely. Modeled BUFKIT soundings at the Big Sandy Regional airport collectively resolve a capping inversion and stout surface dewpoint depressions during peak diurnal heating/mixing hours. As a result, dewpoint grids were lowered towards the NBM 10th percentile data and PoPs were decreased to below the mentionable 15% threshold. The better PoP chances look to remain displaced off to the NE in West Virginia, closer to the remnants of Wednesday's boundary.

After sunset, ridge-valley splits are favored to emerge. Conditions look too dry for river valley fog formation, but the sheltered and shaded valleys should quickly cool into the 40s after sunset. Ridgetops are more likely to experience lows in the 50s, as are the more open locales of the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. There, surface winds should shift to more southwesterly orientation overnight, setting the stage for the more active weather at the end of the forecast period.

The greatest precipitation chances in the long term period look to come in the Friday night to Saturday and Monday to Tuesday time frames. This coincides with the ejection of better-defined shortwave disturbances out of the Great Plains and into the Ohio River Valley. The greatest precipitation coverage will come immediately ahead of any associated surface frontal forcing, although isolated to scattered warm sector convection is possible out ahead of them. The first system lacks the amplitude and convective parameter spacing for any of this activity to be on the stronger side, but the second one will need to be watched more closely. SPC has outlined a Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook for portions of Kentucky on Monday, which currently clips Wayne County. It is far too early to explore specific details, but this activity should collectively yield much- needed measurable precipitation across the forecast area. Storm total QPF currently sits at over an inch for the entire CWA between Friday and Tuesday, and the LREF resolves 65-80% probabilities for exceeding this threshold over this same time frame. With that being said, the weekend does not look like a total washout. Friday night's system has been trending quicker in recent guidance, and shortwave ridging looks to build into the area behind it. Depending on where the boundary stalls out, some additional activity could set up in Southern Kentucky on Sunday, but most of the area looks to dry out in between these two main systems. Temperatures remain seasonably warm through the end of the period, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows generally in the 50s/near 60.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period, and will persist for the most part. However, there are showers occurring in IN and OH and entering northern KY ahead of a stalling cold front. These could make it into the northeastern counties of the JKL forecast area by dawn and stretch well into the day Wednesday. Have included a PROB30 group with MVFR conditions for several hours at KSYM and KSJS.

Low level flow is also increasing ahead of the cold front and is much stronger a little above the surface. This could result in low level wind shear for roughly the northern 2/3 of the JKL forecast area overnight and early Wednesday morning. It would subside as mixing occurs and surface winds begin to gust, which would occur most places as we move into the day.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.