textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain milder through Tuesday with potentially scattered showers and a few storms by evening.

- More widespread showers and a few storms are expected Tuesday night into Thursday morning, resulting in a beneficial rainfall.

- Below normal temperatures settle in through Saturday, with periodic low chances for showers heading into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 616 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

The forecast is on track, with just minor updates to T/Td and Sky grids to account for current hourly trends.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 348 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified through the period. An upper level low will gyre around the vicinity of Hudson Bay, allowing for broader cyclonic flow and general troughiness to rule east of the Rockies through early next week. Model agreement is good through the first half of the weekend, but then breaks down for Sunday and Monday.

On Wednesday, a positively tilted trough will be aligned from central Ontario through the eastern Pacific. At the surface, a cold front will be stretched from New England through the Ohio Valley and into the lower Mississippi Valley. This front will bring some needed rainfall to eastern Kentucky, with widespread showers and some thunderstorms expected during the day. The more sustained shower activity will then gradually taper off from northwest to southeast Wednesday night. On Thursday, another short wave trough will bring some additional light rainfall to the area, mainly favored over our southeastern terrain. High pressure will then build in from the west on Thursday night. Overall, the probabilities for event rainfall totals of greater than an inch have remained in the 50-70 percent chance range, similar to 24 hours ago. The higher probabilties have also remained generally over locations that have bigger rainfall deficits, near I-75 and along and south of KY-80.

Dry weather will be short-lived across the Commonwealth on Friday, as additional short wave activity rotates through the broad cyclonic flow set up in the eastern CONUS. Another cold front will approach and eventually move through the area Friday night and Saturday, bringing in low rain chances. Dry weather returns for Saturday night into Sunday morning, before the next system encroaches by the afternoon, with rain chances continuing into the start of the new week. Again, model agreement is poor by Sunday and Monday, so confidence is low on the timing of the unsettled weather at this time.

Temperatures will average below normal through Saturday. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s Wednesday, before retreating to the 50s and 60s for Thursday behind the departed cold front. Highs will then moderate each day through Sunday, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 by that time. Depending upon the timing of the next cold front, Monday highs would cool back to the upper 60s and lower 70s. Lows will average in the 40s Thursday morning, with some 30s possible for Friday morning, given the nearby high pressure and clear skies overhead. Overnight temperatures will then warm through 40s and 50s each day through early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

A disturbance and associated convection were moving east of the region at issuance time with clearing occurring behind this. Winds were becoming south to southwest sustained at around 10KT with some gusts to near 20KT. These winds will continue through the period though these should slacken around 00Z. Although the winds at the surface are expected to slacken, a renewed low-level jet should be marginally strong enough for mentionable LLWS between 05Z and 12Z. Deeper non TAF sites, especially south and east of the TAF sites may experience some reductions to MVFR or perhaps IFR in fog between about 03Z and 12Z following recent rainfall assuming these locations decouple. Any valley fog at non TAF sites and the LLWS threat diminishes around 12Z with winds returning to south to southwest at roughly 8 to 15KT with gusts to around 20KT to end the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.