textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of shower and thunderstorms are anticipated over the next seven days, including the holiday weekend.

- The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from drought conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 1123 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Areas of light rain across the CWA should gradually taper from the northwest from mid-afternoon through the evening as a frontal boundary, draped over southeastern Kentucky late this morning, finally sags southward. Temperatures shouldn't move more than about 2 to 5 degrees through the remainder of the day.

UPDATE Issued at 742 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Made a quick update to hourly T/Tds based on latest observations. Otherwise, there are no changes to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 459 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Updated PoPs through the remainder of this morning based on the latest model trends. Also removed mention of thunder from the grids until after dawn Friday based on continued model trends and the expected thermodynamic environment across the area through that time.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 338 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified and stagnant through the middle of next week. An upper level ridge will remain anchored from north of the Bahamas into the southeastern CONUS and Gulf. Broad troughing will reign over the central CONUS through the first part of the holiday weekend, before deeper troughing moves into the western Conus from the eastern Pacific, and a closed low moves onshore over the West Coast early next week. As the weekend ends, the northern portion of the Central Canadian to Central Conus trough moves east northeast into the Great Lakes passing north of the OH River. Downstream, either a REX block emerges, or at least sharper ridging becomes aligned from south central Canada through the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and into the Southeast. At the same time the southern portion of this trough should close off over eastern TX before opening up and drawn north across sections of the Central Conus as the upper trough over the western Conus approaches the High plains. For eastern Kentucky, the wetter pattern will continue into early next week, combatting the ongoing drought conditions across the Commonwealth. Some isolated flash flooding will also be possible at times, but only if locations see repeated rounds of more significant rainfall, given the well below normal streamflows currently seen across the area.

On Friday night, widespread showers, along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms should remain prevalent as a short wave trough moves northeast from the middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will deepen and follow suit, gradually escorting a warm front back north of eastern Kentucky through early Saturday. Widespread PoPs will continue on Saturday, as the aforementioned surface low's cold front creeps southeast towards our area.

There remains uncertainty with exactly how the pattern evolves into next week. In general, PoPs will likely become more diurnally influenced with time, as the remnant frontal boundary gradually weakens and becomes more diffuse each successive day after Monday. As such, blended PoPs may be too aggressive, especially Tuesday through Wednesday.

Temperatures throughout the extended portion of the forecast will average slightly above normal, with lows mainly in the 60s, and highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026

Widespread light rain, showers, low cigs, and fog will cause prolonged MVFR and lower conditions through the period, with the possible exception of southwest sites (i.e., KLOZ and KSME) toward the end of the period when conditions may begin improving with the approach of a disturbance and surface warm front. Any mention of thunderstorms has been removed as it appears conditions will be too stable to support such. Winds will remain light through the period, generally no more than 7 kts and primarily out of the northeast.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.