textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times into the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area from this afternoon through early Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday - becoming more of a risk with time.

The previous long term discussion follows:

At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains.

For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday.

By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed.

Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

Scattered showers/thunderstorms were noted to the northwest of the area at the start of the period, but the bulk of eastern Kentucky was clear of pcpn and were reporting a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions (due to fog and low clouds). An overall minimum in precip is expected as we move through the rest of the night, with largely VFR conditions until fog potentially settles in more completely. Meanwhile, the extent of the lingering cloud cover is a bit uncertain. Currently, generalized mid-upper level ceilings are forecast during the night, which would limit fog development compared to last night. However, with enough of a lasting decrease in them, fog could become a concern and bring deteriorating conditions. Some additional showers/thunderstorms could also develop through the rest of the night and bring reductions in ceilings and visibility. Uncertainty also abounds during the day concerning timing of showers/thunderstorms. It's likely that most places will be affected at some point. However, there is so much uncertainty regarding exact timing that it has been handled with PROB30 groups in the afternoon and evening. Outside of any storm, winds will be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.