textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers and brief squalls are most likely between 8 AM and 2 PM today, though activity may start earlier and linger. Expect sudden drops in visibility and quick accumulations up to one inch.

- Isolated thundersnow is possible within the strongest convective snow squalls through early afternoon.

- Cold and blustery conditions will occur today as strong wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph combine with much colder temperatures.

- A warming trend begins Monday, with even warmer weather arriving Tuesday as temperatures climb into the 50s.

- Accumulating snow is possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a more significant storm system moves into the area.

UPDATE

Issued at 715 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026

A cold front with a broken line of snow showers is quickly dropping southeast across the JKL CWA at update time. A rough analysis would place the boundary from near Portsmouth to Jackson to Somerset at 1215z. This front will quickly exit to the east over the next hour or so, setting the stage (as outlined in the short-term AFD) for additional convective snow shower and squall development later this morning.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 558 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026

The long-term period opens Monday evening with mean 500 hPa troughing still in place over the Ohio Valley and adjacent regions, while surface high pressure remains centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. A vort max/shortwave trough embedded within the broader trough is noted over Saskatchewan with an ~994 mb surface low northeast of Saskatoon.

That low will dive southeastward to over the Great Lakes on Tuesday and ride down the St. Lawrence Valley on Wednesday. Mild westerly flow will continue to moderate temperatures across much of the eastern CONUS through Tuesday, but a potent cold front will dive south out of Canada behind that surface low, reaching the Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Additional potent vort/shortwave energy diving into the trough is increasingly favored to close off the trough into a 500 hPa low which then passes near or south of the Commonwealth on Wednesday night and Thursday. If this materializes, it could support cyclogenesis east of the Appalachians along the aforementioned cold front. While there is still uncertainty as to how this trough/low evolves, the closed- off solution depicted by the deterministic 11/00z ECMWF/GFS would be climatologically favored to bring an impactful accumulating snowfall (in many cases heavy) to at least portions of eastern Kentucky, especially if a deformation band develops in the favored zone northwest of the surface low. While this system is not currently favored in the guidance to bring warning-criteria snowfall, it bears monitoring for those who are impacted by accumulating snow concerns, especially closer to the Virginia-Kentucky border. While that upper level system pulls away on Friday, additional shortwave energy drops into the trough over the weekend, potentially leading to another winter weather threat for Saturday.

In sensible weather terms, look for a fair and seasonably cool Monday night with lows ranging from the 20s to mid 30s. Mild and breezy conditions follow for Tuesday with afternoon high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s for most. Looking ahead to Wednesday, rain chances redevelop from the north and flip to snow late as temperatures tumble back below the freezing mark and stay below that threshold in many places through sunrise Friday. The probability for at least one inch of snow in the 11/00z LREF at a 10:1 SLR (potentially higher in reality) is 20 to 70%, highest over Harlan and Letcher counties and lowest over Pulaski and Montgomery counties. Drier conditions and some moderation in temperatures back to near normal are possible Friday before more winter weather visits heading into the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 715 AM EST SUN JAN 11 2026

A northeast-southwest oriented cold front, attended by snow showers and an abrupt west to northwest wind shift, bisected the forecast area at TAF issuance. Primarily MVFR to VFR conditions will occur with the boundary as it quickly dives southeast of the area. More widespread snow shower and isolated snow squall activity will spread southeast through the morning with brief MVFR/IFR or worse conditions possible, before gradually diminishing from west to east between 16 and 19Z. Winds will generally be westerly to northwesterly behind the front, increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts through mid afternoon before gradually diminishing.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.