textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A messy weather event is on track for tonight and Tuesday, with a good potential for wintery precipitation, especially north of the Mountain Parkway.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder than normal.

- The pattern will turn active towards the weekend with additional chances of precipitation.

UPDATE

Issued at 1140 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

02Z sfc analysis shows chilly high pressure in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the CAA on northwest of 5 to 10 mph and attempting to clear the skies though high clouds are holding on strong in the northern parts of the area. Currently, temperatures vary from the upper 20a west to the lower and middle 30s in the east. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 245 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

The long wave pattern will remain active, with progressive flow in place across the CONUS through the end of the week, with some amplification taking place, especially for the latter half of the period. Not surprisingly, model spread increases quite a bit by the second half of the week regarding the timing/amplitude of the smaller scale features. Consequently, this will have a direct impact on temperature profiles and inevitably precipation-type. As such, have maintained a more broad-brushed approach with the PoPs and temperatures, given this uncertainty. Did make some adjustments to the blended temperatures in a few periods, mainly to add in more ridge/valley differences at night when appropriate.

Low level northwest flow will be in place across eastern Kentucky to begin on Tuesday night, with an exiting trough axis to our east. Some upslope snow shower activity will remain a possibility across our southeast terrain, but this should gradually diminish as high pressure builds in and moisture shallows with time. Colder than normal temperatures and mainly dry weather will then be the rule across the area through the middle of the week, with zonal flow in place aloft, and high pressure nearby at the surface. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s, with lows in the 20s, generally in the 5 to 10 degree range below normal. The only fly in the ointment will be a cold front that will traverse the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. This front should result in mostly an increase in cloud cover across eastern Kentucky, as better lift and moisture do not look coincident at this time, at least south of the Ohio River.

Meanwhile, a southern stream short wave trough will take shape across the southwestern CONUS, while northern stream energy swings over southeastern Canada and portions of the Great Lakes and New England. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will activate from the lower Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee Valley. Again, depending on the timing and amplitude of the southern stream digging, deeper moisture and warmth will be slung toward eastern Kentucky Friday into Saturday, with precipitation chances peaking in the 60-70% range. At this time, this looks to fall mainly in the form of liquid, with the exception of early Friday morning, as enough cold air may linger in place to allow for some light snow at onset. Overall, this is a low confidence forecast. Depending on the evolution of the previous mentioned system, some precipitation chances (20-30%) will linger into the second half of the weekend; with another passing cold front threatening from the northwest.

Temperatures will continue to average somewhat below normal this weekend, although given the cloud cover and precipitation chances lingering, readings will be more diurnally limited, with highs mainly in the 40s from Friday through Sunday each day, and lows generally in the 30s. Normal highs for early December are in the low 50s with normal lows are in the low to mid 30s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

VFR conditions are noted for the start of the 06Z aviation cycle and should hold well into the night. However, a secondary cold front may bring another round of MVFR CIGs pre-dawn into early Monday, with the highest probabilities of this occurring at KSYM and KSJS. By midday these will clear up and attention turns to the next burgeoning system from the southwest that will push in after 00Z with lowering CIGs and VIS in rain south and mixed pcpn north. Northwest to west winds will continue at less than 10 kts through the night - turning east then southeast during the day.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.