textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Thu. A strong cold front will then bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms on Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front for the weekend, bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Friday and Saturday nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 1026 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

The late morning update is out with no substantive changes to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 739 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

Temperatures are running in the low-mid 30s in sheltered valleys to the mid 40s-low 50s in the thermal belts at daybreak. Today's quiet forecast remains on track with cloud-filtered sunshine and forecast highs in the 70 to 75F range.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

The forecast period begins late Thursday evening with the region positioned within the warm sector ahead of a northeast-to-southwest oriented cold front. The parent surface low is progged to be centered over northern New England, with the trailing boundary draped southwest through the eastern Great Lakes into the Mid- Mississippi Valley. As the surface low occludes and tracks northeastward toward the Canadian Maritimes, the cold front will gradually sink southeast through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This progression will bring increasing PoPs to the area starting Thursday night, persisting through Friday evening before the front exits and surface high pressure builds in from the north. While thunderstorms are possible at the onset of FROPA Thursday night, instability will wane overnight, leading to a decrease in convective coverage. Clearing skies Friday night into Saturday morning, coupled with CAA, will allow temperatures to drop toward freezing, supporting the potential for frost development in sheltered valleys.

Surface high pressure will remain the dominant synoptic feature through the weekend. Persistent northerly flow will maintain CAA on the backside of the departing system, keeping Saturday cool with highs ranging from the lower 50s in the Bluegrass to the upper 50s near the Tennessee border. Low-level flow will shift southerly by Sunday, allowing temperatures to moderate approximately 10 degrees warmer than Saturday. Beginning Monday, a series of shortwaves will traverse the CONUS, introducing isolated to scattered PoPs starting Monday afternoon and continuing through the end of the period. Temperatures will trend above seasonal averages during this timeframe, with highs eventually climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

The forecast period is characterized by a cold frontal passage followed by building high pressure for the weekend. Temperatures will start below normal but will trend significantly warmer, reaching the 80s by the middle of next week. Model consensus indicates a return to an active convective pattern for the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with thin upper clouds being replaced by a lower to middle cloud deck approaching from the west late tonight into the post-dawn hours associated with a cluster of showers and possible thunderstorms. This activity will be more likely to impact northern terminals than southern terminals, and could bring reductions into the MVFR category for a brief time. Additionally, a warm front will lift northeast across the area late tonight bringing some LLWS. Where breezy conditions are indicated at the surface tonight but no mention of LLWS, be advised that if winds decouple then LLWS will occur. Otherwise, southwest winds between 5 and 10 kts with gusts to around 15 kts at times will continue into the overnight, with winds becoming stronger toward the end of the TAF period as a cold front approaches.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.