textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost and freezing temperatures are expected early this morning in most valleys.

- Below normal temperatures and mainly dry weather will prevail through today.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from tonight through Saturday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 639 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Temperatures are bottoming out in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the forecast area at daybreak with an extensive frost or light freeze for many. The coldest PWSs in Magoffin, Morgan, Johnson and Elliot counties are reported readings in the 27F to 28F range.

Of note, some patchy fog has developed along the mainstem river and that should be mitigating the frost threat somewhat immediately adjacent to those waterways. Fog and frost should dissipate by or before 9 AM as temperatures warm rapidly under full sunshine. Forecast is on track.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 407 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

The forecast period begins Monday evening with quasi-zonal flow across the area ahead of a shortwave and cold front moving toward the area from the west and northwest. After higher PoPs during the daytime hours Monday, only low-end PoPs are in the forecast for Monday night, and even then only from the I-64 corridor north. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 40s far southeastern valleys to upper 50s thermal belt ridges and open terrain of the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland areas. Should clouds clear, the combination of antecedent moisture and light winds could lead to some valley fog through early Tuesday.

Tuesday and especially Tuesday night brings renewed threats of showers and thunderstorms as the primary shortwave dives southeast from Canada into the northern CONUS. As this occurs, the associated upper-level circulation will rotate north of the Great Lakes. At the surface, deep low pressure will track from northern Ontario into northern Quebec, dragging a trailing cold front that is progged to extend southwestward through the CONUS and reach the doorstep of the JKL CWA by early Wednesday morning. This setup will facilitate showers and storms throughout the day. However, the front is expected to stall over the region, becoming a focal point for an extended period of convection as surface features ripple along the zone of baroclinicity.

With multiple rounds of precipitation expected, forecast QPF for this period remains robust. Based on the current model suite, total forecast QPF from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 inches. Once the boundary finally shifts through the area, brief surface high pressure will build into the region on Friday before another system approaches for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

Aside from some fog in the mainstem river valleys early this morning (impacting SME), VFR conditions without significant wind continue to be forecast through the TAF period. High pressure will keep clear to mostly clear skies over the area until mid and high clouds begin to move in from the northwest after 21Z. South to southwest winds will develop this morning but should generally remain under 10 kts.

A disturbance will then approach late tonight with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. PROB30s have been included in TAFs for when confidence in eventual impacts are highest.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-069-080-085>088-104-106>120.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ068-079-083- 084.