textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather is expected from tonight to Friday, with temperatures averaging about 5 degrees below normal.

- Unsettled weather is forecast to return this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1149 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

After an eventful evening across eastern Kentucky, only a few isolated showers remain. The cold front that will bring our much cooler and less humid weather is still just to our northwest, but has very little notable weather with it--just a weak wind shift from southwest to northerly. For the overnight, it should be quiet for most locations, though an isolated shower or rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out into the early morning. As the more organized convection has long since departed, the Flood Watch and Severe Thunderstorm Watches were all cancelled early. Otherwise, expect some patchy fog, especially in the river valleys and temperatures settling back into the 60s to near 70F.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 440 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

At the onset of the long term period, upper level troughing will sit over the northeast CONUS, with an additional area of troughing associated with a closed upper level low located off the Pacific Northwest coast. Ridging will prevail between these features and will be centered over the Southern Plains at the start of the extended period, with anomalously high 500 mb heights across much of the central and western CONUS. Locally, eastern Kentucky will find itself in a region of northwesterly flow aloft for several days, with the forecast area sandwiched between ridging and troughing. At the surface, an area of high pressure near the Great Lakes will keep winds northeasterly on Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier air. Highs will struggle to rise above the low 80s, and with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s and low 60s, Thursdays weather will be downright pleasant. Overnight, lows will plummet into the upper 50s and low 60s, with typical fog formation in our mainstem river valleys.

PoPs will return by Friday afternoon as a shortwave embedded within northwesterly flow aloft rotates into our area. Ahead of this shortwave, the eastward translation of the aforementioned surface high will allow winds to gradually become more northerly to northwesterly over the course of the day. This will allow for modest moisture advection, and given shortwave forcing, isolated to scattered storms will be possible near the VA line on Friday afternoon. With the potential for additional embedded impulses, rain chances will continue through Saturday, although the timing and details of this activity will need to be refined in later forecast periods. By Sunday, the northeast trough will deepen along the Atlantic Coast, with flow aloft becoming increasingly northerly over the forecast area. Model spread increases significantly at this point, with rain chances dependent on embedded impulses that are difficult to resolve this far out. For now, slight to chance PoPs are forecast through the end of the period, although uncertainty remains high at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

A cold front continues to sag south across eastern Ky and was located south of I-64 (KIOB to KSYM area) and north of the Mtn Pkwy (KJKL to KSJS area) at issuance time. Low and mid clouds, patchy fog and low stratus, as well as showers and a couple of embedded thunderstorms were occurring south of the boundary. Patches of low clouds and fog was occurring north of the boundary. Patchy fog and or low clouds are likely overnight, especially south of the boundary with ceilings and/or visibility lowering to MVFR or worse for a few hours through between now and 13Z. Prevailing conditions gradually improve areawide by the 15Z to 21Z timeframe, as the front drops into VA and TN. A few showers or a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out from KJKL to KSJS south through 18Z and thereafter, any lingering convection should be south of the TAF sites. By 00Z, chances for convection finally dissipates even near the TN and VA borders. Some fog may develop, especially in valleys by the 03Z to 06Z timeframe with MVFR or perhaps lower reductions. Winds initially light and variable, become northwest/north between ~09z and 21Z at generally less than 10KT.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.