textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend, with colder weather expected to arrive early next week. - Periodic rain chances will occur through much of the holiday week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025

The long-term period opens Thursday morning with anomalously strong 500 hPa ridging extending from the Gulf of America northward into Central Canada. A pronounced low/trough is noted upstream along the West Coast. At the surface, a weak low pressure will be passing through the Mid-Ohio Valley with wavering frontal boundary extending westward to another low in the Kansas/Oklahoma vicinity.

The 500 hPa ridging over the nation will gradually erode as a stream of energy ejects out of the West Coast trough on Thursday and Friday. During this time, a more significant area of energy will support the wave of low pressure tracking from Kansas/Oklahoma to eastern Ohio by Friday evening, pulling the wavering boundary back north as a warm front. The boundary will sag back south behind the low on Friday night. This nearby boundary will keep the intermittent threat of showers (chance to categorical) over the JKL CWA. Brief height rises return for Saturday leading to drier conditions before a much stronger trough digs southeast from Western Canada. This will generate a potent low pressure system lifting from the Northern Plains into Eastern Canada and sweeping a potent cold front across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Behind that front, a strong but cold surface high pressure settles south from the Canadian Prairies to the Lower Mississippi Valley. At 850 hPa, temperatures could fall to between -10 and -15C across the forecast area -- more than cold enough for snow. However, at this early juncture, the deterministic ECMWF/GFS show the 925-850 mb flow remaining to westerly enough to keep the substantial moisture from the Great Lakes northeast of the JKL CWA.

In sensible weather terms, look for an unseasonably warm temperatures to persist through the upcoming weekend before turning sharply colder early next week. Daily high temperatures are expected to range mainly in the 60s from Thursday through Sunday, though could approach 70 in the warmest valleys (primarily on Friday and Saturday afternoons). Nighttime lows will run mostly in the 50s. Much colder weather arrives Sunday night behind the cold front with temperatures tumbling into the 20s. Thermometers are forecast to struggle to reach the freezing mark on Monday and Tuesday. Rain showers are expected at times from Thursday through Friday night but overall amounts should be light. Saturday is dry for the most part before showers return on Sunday, mixing with or ending as a little light snow shower/flurry activity Sunday night/early Monday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST TUE DEC 23 2025

MVFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this issuance and very little improvement is anticipated through the TAF window. Several perturbations are forecast to impact the area bringing increased shower chances, lowered CIGS and reduced VSBY. Showers are forecast to increase overnight but will taper off and fog will then replace showers. Low-end MVFR to IFR CIGS/VSBY can be expected mainly after 07Z and continuing through roughly 14Z before slow improvement to MVFR is anticipated. Gusty southwest to westerly winds are forecast today but will taper off to light and variable after 00Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.