textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A gradual warming trend will occur late in the week.

- After a lull for most of the week, a shower and thunderstorm potential returns for the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1155 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

Hourly temperatures were dropping off a bit more quickly than the previous forecast for most valley locations. Fog has developed in portions of the Cumberland Valley that experienced rain over the past day or so and this was added initially for Wayne to Whitely counties and eventually much of the Cumberland Valley.

UPDATE Issued at 815 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

Mid level clouds are moving across sections of the OH Valley and Appalachians this evening while a few cumulus or low clouds were located near the TN/KY border. This cloud cover should diminish through the night as a boundary gradually sags further to the south of eastern KY. Minor adjustments were made mainly to account for recent observations.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 407 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

The period opens in the midst of the gradual breakdown of the previous blocking pattern. As the deep upper level trough migrates off the East Coast, high amplitude ridging extending into the Great Lakes region will progress eastward, leaving eastern Kentucky temporarily between these two features. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will lead to predominantly northeasterly winds on Wednesday; thus, drier air will enter the forecast area, and with a dry atmospheric column owing to northerly flow aloft, these dry conditions will prevail throughout the day. Courtesy of clear skies, highs will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s across the area. In terms of sensible impacts, Thursdays weather will be similar, albeit with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 80s) as the upper level high progresses east and height rises are expected aloft. Meanwhile, the surface highs progression southeast will allow for winds to become more westerly to southwesterly as the day progresses, initiating modest low level moisture return, although the middle and upper level moisture should still remain low enough to maintain clear skies.

With clear skies and high pressure in place, the primary deviation from NBM output was to add additional terrain influences in the area, with a modest ridge-valley temperature split likely overnight on Wednesday into Thursday morning. With the NBM running cooler than guidance for ridges and warmer than guidance for valleys, hourly and low temperatures were adjusted accordingly. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 40s will provide a reasonable floor for overnight temperatures in sheltered valleys, and therefore mainstem river valleys can expect fog on Thursday morning. With persisting clear skies, low temperatures will again approach dewpoints overnight Thursday into Friday morning, hinting at another chance for valley fog in prone areas.

On Friday, the upper level high is expected to drift farther southeast, but we should get one more day of dry weather before rain chances return to the forecast. High temperatures will again be firmly in the 80s, but with a tightening pressure gradient and southwesterly winds around the high over the southeast, moisture return will continue. Dewpoints in the upper 50s or perhaps even the 60s will be possible by Friday afternoon, and as the upper level ridge continues to break down and the pattern aloft becomes quasi-zonal, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area starting on Saturday. In the absence of more defined synoptic forcing, rain chances look to be relatively low on Saturday, but by Sunday an upper level low over the upper Midwest/southern Canada and its associated surface cyclone over the Great Lakes region will push eastward. Concurrently, an upper level low over the Southern Plains will also be progressing eastward, with a broad area of modest height falls aloft. Accordingly, chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms increase again Sunday. While the details of these upper level features are not fully resolvable at this time, a shift towards a marginally wetter pattern appears likely going into the late weekend and the start of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

Some mainly mid and high level clouds will linger to begin the period, but high pressure will dominated and lead to mainly VFR as a boundary continues to sag south of eastern KY. The one caveat to VFR will be the potential for valley fog with reductions to IFR or possibly lower at times between 05Z and 13Z, though TAF locations are not expected to be affected. Winds through the period will be light and variable or northeast to north at generally less than 10KT.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.