textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A potential for damaging wind gusts with this afternoons storms remains in far eastern Kentucky.

- A slow-moving weather system keeps daily shower and storm chances, along with some heavy rain potential, in the forecast through Tuesday.

- Somewhat drier and warmer weather returns Wednesday through Friday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 616 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

The models remain in good agreement with the long wave pattern through the end of next week. An upper level high pressure system will remain centered across the western Atlantic, strengthening through the latter half of the work week. Further west, a persistent ridge centered near the Four Corners region will also intensify during the period. Meanwhile, a deeper upper level low spiraling over the vicinity of Hudson Bay will spread cyclonic flow over the north central U.S. through next week. By the start of next weekend, both ridges will have dampened somewhat, with more model uncertainty regarding how much residual troughing can be maintained across the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Deep South. In general, this will result in a continuation of diurnally-driven convection each day through next week across eastern Kentucky, with elevated humidity levels and near normal temperatures expected for early August.

The models have trended more towards sustaining a closed low over the Deep South on Tuesday, with higher PoPs favored across our terrain, and lesser chances north, further away from the forcing. The upper low will drift closer to us on Wednesday, bringing higher rain chances to eastern Kentucky. LREF mean PWATs continue to range in the 50-75th percentile range of climatology, but storm motions look a bit slower this go around at around 10 kts, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The upper level low will dampen across the region on Thursday, with some degree of troughing remaining in place through the weekend, dependent on the strength of upstream cyclonic flow and any potential short wave energy migration. There still seems to be pretty good confidence in keeping any surface fronts north of the Ohio River, allowing for only weak forcing across our area. As such, expect mainly afternoon/early evening PoPs in place each day through Sunday, but convection should be more scattered in nature. Highs each day will average in the lower to middle 80s. Lows will moderate slightly from the mid to upper 60s to near 70 by next weekend, with elevated humidity levels in place.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

A cold front is lying over the eastern third of the JKL CWA. Showers and storms are expected to redevelop for most TAF sites by midday - diminishing in the evening. The strongest of the storms should stay east of all but the KSJS terminal. Low clouds and sub IFR visibility in fog is anticipated late tonight. Away from any storms, winds will generally be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.