textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mainly clear skies, mild days, and chilly nights will persist well into week.

- Light, patchy frost may develop overnight and again late Thursday night in valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

UPDATE

Issued at 853 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

Temperatures are running slightly above this time last night. Even if this translates through to the eventual lows around dawn, it will still probably be cold enough for some spotty frost. Have only made minor adjustments.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

At the beginning of the long term period, an expansive and highly amplified midlevel ridge will be located over the central CONUS; meanwhile, deep troughing will be digging into the western CONUS, with another trough over the East Coast, associated with a deep closed low off the coast of Maine and another coastal impulse near the Outer Banks. Although this troughing will shift over time, such an amplified ridge in the middle of the country, this setup will lead to a very stagnant weather pattern locally.

At the surface, eastern Kentucky will find itself under the influence of persistent high pressure, which should keep weather quite uneventful through early next week. Each day, ample sunshine will allow high temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s, and each night, clear skies and light winds will allow for moderate ridge/valley temperature splits to develop. MOS guidance suggests that lows in the valleys will generally bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s, and given such a dry air mass, this magnitude of cooling seems reasonable. In fact, raw NBM dewpoints are likely too moist given relatively dry air just above the surface, especially in the absence of appreciable moisture advection. Thus, a drier dewpoint blend was favored, with resultant dewpoints in the low to mid 40s during the day, much more in line with ensemble guidance. As usual, as our valleys cool efficiently overnight, fog formation is expected.

By early next week, an upper level low from the West Coast will approach the central CONUS ridge. As these features interact, the ridge looks to flatten, and by Tuesday, flow aloft will be more southwesterly, which will work to increase mid and upper level moisture. Meanwhile, at the surface, an area of low pressure will progress through Canada, with a cold front draped across the Great Lakes region. This front will attempt to sag south towards eastern Kentucky, but with limited upper level support, it currently seems unlikely the front will reach our area by the end of the forecast period. Thus, the most consequential change in the pattern will likely be increased cloud cover on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

Fog will bring IFR or worse conditions in many valley locations overnight and early Thursday, but it is not forecast to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds will prevail.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.