textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A colder air mass continues to gradually work its way into Eastern Kentucky through the end of the work week. - Showery weather lingers through Saturday morning as a cold air advection regime persists.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday/early Saturday, with minor accumulations mostly confined to the higher terrain locales along the Virginia state line.

- Dry weather with a slow warming trend is expected next week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 352 PM EST THU NOV 12 2026

At the start of the long term period, 500 mb troughing will be located over the eastern CONUS, with the trough axis now east of the forecast area. Farther west, a highly amplified ridge will be centered over the Great Plains. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest, with the original surface low now well into the Atlantic. This high pressure will be the dominant player in eastern Kentucky's weather for the duration of the period, with largely tranquil conditions expected.

Although ridging will dominate the majority of the forecast period, some residual precipitation may linger on Saturday morning. There is still some uncertainty regarding the quality of lingering moisture and cloud top temperatures, but with northwesterly flow persisting around the surface high, upslope winds would still be favored. Thus, should ingredients align, additional precipitation would be possible in southeastern Kentucky, and pattern recognition suggests NBM PoPs may be slightly underdone, although precipitation chances remain very marginal and limited. With a cold air mass still in place on Saturday morning, any precipitation would likely fall as snow in the higher elevations, although if clouds are shallower with warmer cloud tops, freezing drizzle could not be ruled out. Regardless, precipitation should cease as moisture profiles become less favorable and ridging continues to build east. Lingering cloud cover will keep highs below average, in the mid 40s for most locations and colder for the highest terrain of southeastern Kentucky. Should cloud cover linger into the night, lows could remain warmer than forecast for some locations; otherwise, temperatures should range from the upper 20s to low 30s.

From Sunday onward, weather will be tranquil and uneventful. Aloft, the amplified 500 mb ridge will continue its eastward progression, pushed toward the forecast area by a series of Pacific disturbances. Around Monday, an upper level low will traverse the Canadian Prairie provinces, which will flatten the ridge somewhat, while in the Southern Plains, an additional low will drift south into the Gulf; however, neither of these features will have much impact on the pattern locally, with ridging persisting. 500 mb heights will continue to rise as the ridge axis eventually makes its way overhead by midweek. This ridging will be anomalously strong by the end of the period, with LREF mean 500 mb heights rising to 581 dam, roughly the 90th percentile compared to climatology. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will continue to shift east, with winds becoming increasingly southerly with time. This pattern will keep weather sunny and dry across eastern Kentucky, with a general warming trend expected. Although highs will be below average (in the upper 40s and low 50s) for the majority of the area on Sunday, maxTs look to rebound into the 60s by the end of the period. With a dry air mass in place, expect temperatures to cool off significantly overnight, with lows generally ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s in valleys, although overnight temperatures will remain warmer on ridges.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 700 PM EST THU NOV 12 2026

At issuance time, mainly VFR ceilings were reported across the area, though drops into the MVFR range were occurring in showers. Some graupel may still be occurring in the strongest cores. The shower activity should taper to a lull from northwest to southeast for a few hours during the first 6 hours of the period as a disturbance passes. Guidance suggests a general deterioration to prevailing MVFR for most locations through 06Z. After the few hours of a lull at each location, a surface trough will bring renewed shower activity between 06Z to 12Z. This will generally be accompanied by a trend to IFR if not locally worse ceilings from north to south between 09Z and 15Z. With daytime heating, a peak in coverage of showers is probable during the last 6 hours of the period. More northern and western locations may experience improvements back to MVFR between about 18Z and 00Z. Winds should average west to northwest winds at generally less than 10KT, with some gusts to near 20KT in showers initially and then remain west to northwest through 12Z at generally less than 10KT. During the last 12 hours of the period, winds should become northwest to north areawide, with sustained speeds at less than 10KT.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.