textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather continues today, with widespread heat indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms return this afternoon, primarily near and west of Interstate 75.

- A wetter pattern arrives Friday and continues through Sunday. The anomalously moist airmass will result in daily rounds of storms, some of which could produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- A cold front will cross the region next Tuesday, bringing another chance for strong thunderstorms followed by cooler and drier weather mid-week.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 350 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

The extended period opens with Eastern Kentucky at the beginning of an active pattern as multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected Friday evening and again during the afternoons Saturday and Sunday. Monday will have a brief reprieve in active weather before a stronger cold front passes through the area Tuesday afternoon with more chances of showers and storms.

Diving into the details at the start of the period, a large ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West, along with troughing across much of Central and Eastern Canada will leave the Ohio Valley including Eastern Kentucky under quasi-zonal flow. Under this flow regime multiple embedded shortwaves will spill over the lee-side of the ridge into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. As mentioned above these shortwaves will tend to produce showers and thunderstorms Friday evening, and again Saturday and Sunday. During this timeframe, PWATs of 2.0-2.1 inches advect into the area and potentially approach the 99th percentile relative to climo. This anomalously moist environment coupled with shower and storm chances has prompted the WPC to issue a marginal risks for excessive rainfall 12Z Friday through 12Z Sunday.

As one of the embedded shortwaves in the trough over Canada progresses into the Northeast Sunday evening, Kentucky will find itself in-between systems. The next upper level trough is modeled to pass through the Great Lakes Monday evening, with the system's cold front passing through our area sometime Tuesday. Model soundings suggest some of these storms have the potential to be on the stronger side, with surface based CAPE near 3000 J/kg and DCAPE over 1200 J/kg. Areas in or around any potential storm within this environment may experience erratic and gusty winds. Temperatures generally range from the mid to upper 80s during the afternoon hours before cooling into the mid 60s to low 70s at night through Tuesday. Somewhat cooler weather likely follows the front mid-week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at most terminals at the 12Z TAF issuance, though some impacts from valley fog are noted at a few sites. Expect fog to mix out by ~13Z and give way to another day of cumulus clouds from midday through the evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase at southwest terminals later in the afternoon, particularly near SME. Fog may be more widespread tonight. Winds will remain generally light and variable for the duration of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.