textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances shift return to the southeast portion of the state on Tuesday, with heavy rainfall a distinct threat. - Rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for the remainder of the week, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 532 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

The long wave pattern will be amplified through early next week, as stronger ridge centers dominate from the western Atlantic as well as the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, a deeper low will be churning over Hudson Bay, with broad cyclonic flow fanned south across the north central CONUS. This cyclonic flow will dampen and become more confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late this weekend and into early next week. Diurnally-driven convection will threaten each day across eastern Kentucky, although areal coverage should generally lessen by the latter half of the weekend and into early next week, given the weaker forcing in place and decreasing PWATs across the region.

Wednesday will likely be the day of better areal convective coverage, as a remnant upper level low weakens but also drifts north towards the Commonwealth. PWATs look to increase to the 1.7-1.8 inch range, coupled with freezing levels above 15k feet agl, and storm motions of less than 10 kts. As such, isolated flash flooding will be possible where thunderstorms are most persistent. Residual troughing will then linger across the Ohio Valley from Thursday through Saturday, before easing up more so Sunday and Monday. Again, this should result in more limited convective coverage each day, although given the successive days of storm potential and continued meager storm motions, isolated flash flooding will threaten at times through the end of the work week. Highs will slowly moderate each day, starting out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, and reaching the mid to upper 80s by early next week. Lows will average in the mid to upper 60s. Humidity levels will remain elevated throughout the period.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

Outside of a few decaying showers over far southeastern Kentucky, VFR conditions were noted across eastern Kentucky at TAF issuance time. As high pressure brushes to our north, mostly clear skies will allow fog formation overnight through many of the sheltered river valleys. However, northeasterly flow just off the ridgetops should be sufficient to keep most of the fog confined there and away from the TAF sites. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions going into the day on Tuesday with a substantial cu field redeveloping by late morning. There will also be a risk of isolated to scattered deep convection again Tuesday afternoon but most of the activity should stay southeast of the TAF terminals. Winds will generally be N to NE and light (under 10 kts).

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.