textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for widespread showers and possible storms will continue today before winding down this evening.

- Some of the storms could be strong in the far east with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concern.

- This additional convection will bring some more highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once the frontal boundary finally clears the area late this week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored along with a chance for frost over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026

No large changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids as well as near term PoPs per current radar and CAMs guidance. Concur with SPC that there is still a conditional threat for severe weather in the far eastern parts of the state should things reinitiate this afternoon ahead of the cold front - amid building instability. Accordingly, the Marginal Risk for severe weather has been pulled west into a bigger chunk of the JKL CWA. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026

The main change to the long term portion of the forecast from the NBM was to ensure that there is some limited terrain distinction to night-time temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning. We still look to be on track for some frost in the valleys late Saturday night into dawn Sunday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long term period will be generally characterized by persistent upper level troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Further south, ridging will gradually break down over the south central US into Mexico as a potent upper level low moves into the southwestern US this weekend. For eastern Kentucky, this synoptic pattern indicates high confidence in below average temperatures through at least Saturday. Precipitation associated with Wednesdays cold front will exit our area by Thursday afternoon, giving way to clearing skies in the afternoon; however, given northwesterly postfrontal winds, highs will still remain ~10 degrees below normal. Overnight, temperatures may approach the upper 30s in the northernmost part of the forecast area; however, the wild card in this forecast is overnight cloud cover, particularly as a secondary cold front will sag south into Kentucky on Friday. Thus, cloud cover will likely be too thick to allow for full decoupling, keeping lows in the low to mid 40s across most of the forecast area.

On Friday, a broad surface low initially located over the Central Mississippi Valley will translate generally east across the southeastern US. The exact track of this low remains uncertain, but there is broad model agreement that this will allow for a weak cold front to drop into our area, bringing a slight chance for showers. Any precipitation that does fall is expected to be light, and the exact timing of this remains uncertain at this time; therefore, confidence is low enough that I have opted to keep NBM PoPs for now. Regardless of precipitation, the primary impact of this secondary front will be another reinforcing shot of cold air, which will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s and low 40s overnight. Given lingering moisture, cloud cover could prevent our valleys from getting too cold; however, in the event of a quicker frontal passage or weaker front, drier conditions could set in. In this scenario, skies could clear out overnight, which would allow for cooler low temperatures and therefore increase the risk for patchy frost in sheltered valleys. Thus, these cloud cover trends bear monitoring, and agricultural interests are advised to remain aware of forecast changes.

Saturday will be our coolest day of the forecast period. With the secondary cold front through our area, northwesterly flow will dominate, keeping high temperatures below average in eastern Kentucky yet again. Over the course of the day, building high pressure will also allow for skies to clear out gradually throughout the day. These clear skies and light winds will allow overnight temperatures to plummet in our valleys, with 12Z MOS guidance even showing subfreezing lows for some sheltered areas. Given these conditions, frost formation will be most likely on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will continue to dominate through Sunday until the next system will approach our area around the start of next week, although details remain unclear at this time. Regardless, below average temperatures will remain favored through at least the first week of May per CPC outlooks.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites at 12Z issuance time. However, shower and storm chances will be in place through the morning and into the afternoon. Look for this threat to then diminish again, at most TAF sites, between 18 and 20Z. Sites will likely fall to categorical MVFR and IFR before gradually improving back to MVFR and VFR after mid afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through mid morning - with higher gusts near any storms. Look for the winds to then pick up during the late morning and afternoon as they shift from the southwest to northwest with some gusts up to 20 kts possible. Winds then settle later this evening with conditions improving to VFR on all counts, but some valley fog is expected late tonight and may briefly impact a couple of the terminals.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.