textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front could produce multiple rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon and into the first part of the overnight.

- There is a Slight to Enhanced Risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening, including damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

- Torrential rainfall from persistent thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding during this time.

- Mainly dry weather is expected from Wednesday night to Friday, with temperatures averaging about 5 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 440 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

At the onset of the long term period, upper level troughing will sit over the northeast CONUS, with an additional area of troughing associated with a closed upper level low located off the Pacific Northwest coast. Ridging will prevail between these features and will be centered over the Southern Plains at the start of the extended period, with anomalously high 500 mb heights across much of the central and western CONUS. Locally, eastern Kentucky will find itself in a region of northwesterly flow aloft for several days, with the forecast area sandwiched between ridging and troughing. At the surface, an area of high pressure near the Great Lakes will keep winds northeasterly on Thursday, ushering in cooler and drier air. Highs will struggle to rise above the low 80s, and with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s and low 60s, Thursdays weather will be downright pleasant. Overnight, lows will plummet into the upper 50s and low 60s, with typical fog formation in our mainstem river valleys.

PoPs will return by Friday afternoon as a shortwave embedded within northwesterly flow aloft rotates into our area. Ahead of this shortwave, the eastward translation of the aforementioned surface high will allow winds to gradually become more northerly to northwesterly over the course of the day. This will allow for modest moisture advection, and given shortwave forcing, isolated to scattered storms will be possible near the VA line on Friday afternoon. With the potential for additional embedded impulses, rain chances will continue through Saturday, although the timing and details of this activity will need to be refined in later forecast periods. By Sunday, the northeast trough will deepen along the Atlantic Coast, with flow aloft becoming increasingly northerly over the forecast area. Model spread increases significantly at this point, with rain chances dependent on embedded impulses that are difficult to resolve this far out. For now, slight to chance PoPs are forecast through the end of the period, although uncertainty remains high at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 826 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026

A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms is exiting the area at TAF issuance. Behind the line, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight. Patchy fog is likely overnight with ceilings lowering to MVFR or worse late in the night. Conditions improve on Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Winds will generally be light from the southwest this evening, turning northwest/north between ~09z and 18z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.