textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a potential for a more widespread dry, fluffy snow event Friday/Saturday for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on the evolution of a possible large system developing/moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

- Cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a brief warming trend following early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 935 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026

Mid and high clouds continue to pass over eastern Kentucky during the late morning update. Temperatures are rising into and through the 10s and are even flirting with 20F near Lake Cumberland. Still anticipate widespread afternoon highs ranging from the mid 20s norht of I-64 to the mid 30s near the KY-TN border under variable, mainly high, cloud cover.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026

Mainly high clouds were passing over the region early this morning, though some low clouds were present in the southwest. Current temperatures were mainly in the single digits to teens. A few of the coldest spots north of I-64 may be a degree or two below zero at this point. Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends. No other changes were necessary at this time.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 412 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026

At the onset of the long-term period, Friday evening, an upper level trough will be digging south from the Great Lakes through the Tennessee Valley. By Saturday afternoon a closed low at 500-mb is modeled anywhere from North Georgia, to South Carolina. As the trough axis moves south and east of Kentucky during Friday evening, some snow showers from lingering mid-level frontogenetic forcing, will continue over southeastern Kentucky. This closed upper level low will help a surface low in the Southeast US materialize into a Miller Type A Noreaster, off the Carolina coast. Where exactly the low tracks can alter forecasted snowfall for Eastern Kentucky. Unlike the last system, the state looks to remain in the cold-sector, with snow ratios ranging from 15 to 20-1. At current, the area to most likely see accumulating snowfall remains south and east of the Hal- Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor. Models and ensembles have been bouncing around from run-to-run, so forecaster confidence has room to improve. That said, the 07Z NBM probs of exceeding 4 inches of snowfall (warning criteria), remains at 25% for cities like Pikeville, Hazard and Harlin. Areas closer to the stateline such as Cumberland and Elkhorn City currently have a 40% chance of exceeding 4 inches. Of note, this is the 4th run in a row that these probabilities have dropped from the previous runs, with each run pulling the highest probabilities further east, out of the area.

After the trough axis passes southeast of the state by Saturday morning, cold arctic air will remain through the day, with highs struggling to reach 20 across the area. In fact, Jackson is forecasted to reach 14 for a high, which would break the previous record cold high, of 26 degrees set back in 2019. Snow showers should taper off heading into Saturday evening, with lows in the single digits, with a forecasted low of 6 degrees at Jackson, the record low of 9 degrees set back in 2013 would also be at play.

Sunday, warmer air starts to move into the area aloft. Unfortunately that isn't instantaneous, and all of the area will have to endure another day below freezing, with temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 20s during the day. Clouds should decrease through the afternoon, with light northwesterly winds becoming more westerly after sunset. With light winds and clearing skies, ridge-valley splits are expected Sunday night, where all areas will likely be in the single digits, with ridges being a few degrees warmer than valleys. Currently the forecasted low for the Jackson airport Sunday night is 8 degrees. The record low of 6 will certainly be in play, previously set 30 years ago in 1996.

Into next week, a warming trend looks likely, with Monday being the first in a few days that much of the area will see lower to upper 30s for temperatures. Clouds should increase through the day, with a nearby system passing through the Great Lakes. At current, no precipitation is expected. Monday night, low temperatures in the upper teens to near 20 will be welcomed by many given these are warmer than the highs from Saturday.

Tuesday, the next system looks to approach the area, bringing with it chances of rain Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Temperatures continue to warm, in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday and upper 30s to lower 40s on Wednesday. Temperatures cool in the mid 20s Wednesday night and may lingering shower chances, a wintry mix may be possible. Do to model disparity there are scattered Pop chances in the afternoon for showers but that could certainly change with how the trough passes through the region.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 646 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026

VFR was observed across the region at issuance time with light and variable winds as sfc high pressure dominates. Mainly high clouds were passing by at present with some low clouds southwest of the TAF sites near the TN border in the KEKQ vicinity. Clouds should gradually thicken and lower today and tonight, though VFR should prevail in all locations through at least 06Z. NBM guidance as well as recent CONSShort guidance and LAMP data suggest some fog with reductions into at least the MVFR range between 06Z and 12Z. Also during that timeframe, flurries or patchy light snow may develop in some areas as ceilings trend into the MVFR range before 12Z. Winds are expected to remain light an variable today, gradually becoming north to northeast at generally 5KT or less.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.