textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected from Tuesday through Friday. Some of those storms could arrive as organized clusters with a potential for strong to damaging wind gusts.

- Isolated to scattered instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding - especially for mid-week.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for northeastern Kentucky until 8 AM EDT on Wednesday, primarily for flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 633 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

Trends and latest model runs would suggest that precip will remain to our northeast for a longer time as we move into the evening, and the POP has been lowered initially tonight. Have still held on to chance POPs for later in the night.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 459 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

Active weather will continue in the long term period, with multiple bouts of thunderstorms probable. However, confidence in details is still very elusive.

We will start the period still under west northwest flow in the mid- upper levels, near the southern edge of faster flow, and with subtropical ridging just to our south southwest. A very warm and humid surface air mass will remain in place and give considerable instability. This completes the setup for MCSs to develop where there's enough focus from initiating features. The forecasting problems are that these features are relatively weak in the big scheme of things, and also that future convection relies in part on the evolution of difficult to forecast prior convection. Have used a broadbrushed forecast for POP through Friday based on blended models.

The GFS and ECMWF both show potential for a weak cold front to slip south southwest through the JKL forecast area by the weekend as a weak low rotates through a northeast CONUS trough and enhances the upper level flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Should this come to pass, there could be a break in the precip potential at the start of the weekend. Any relief from the muggy air mass would probably be minimal, as the upper troughing quickly departs and ridging builds into our area from the southwest during the weekend and supports hot and humid weather.

Models then show another impulse moving through the faster flow to our north and northeast, which suppresses the ridging back to the southwest early in the new week. This would allow another weak cold front to push in from the north with an increase in the POP in the neighborhood of Monday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance, and aside from some localized valley fog overnight, should last through the night. There is a potential for an area of showers and thunderstorms to advance through the region from north to south or northeast to southwest on Tuesday morning and early afternoon. However, forecast models have been performing very poorly with regard to convective precip recently. Forecast confidence is low and only a PROB30 group was carried in TAFs.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ044-052-104-106-107- 109-110-119-120.