textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost and freezing temperatures are expected late tonight and early Sunday in most valleys.

- Below normal temperatures and mainly dry weather will prevail through Sunday.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from Sunday night to Saturday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 351 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

The forecast period begins Monday morning with the arrival of a shortwave perturbation diving toward the CWA ahead of a much stronger upper-level trough. This initial wave is progged to bring increasing chances of showers and storms early Monday, with PoPs ranging from 25 percent in the southwest to 50 percent northeastward toward the Big Sandy Basin. While the diurnal timing is not favorable for severe convection, some rumbles of thunder remain possible. Aside from precipitation chances, temperatures will begin to rise as highs are progged to climb into the 70s. As the quick- moving shortwave exits to the east, PoP chances will decrease Monday night. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to upper 50s. Should clouds clear, the combination of antecedent moisture and light winds will likely lead to valley fog through early Tuesday.

Tuesday brings renewed threats of showers and thunderstorms as the primary shortwave dives southeast from Canada into the northern CONUS. As this occurs, the associated upper-level circulation will settle into the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, the low- pressure center will track toward the Great Lakes, trailing a cold front that is progged to extend southwestward through the CONUS and reach the doorstep of the CWA by Tuesday morning. This setup will facilitate showers and storms throughout the day. However, the front is expected to stall over the region, becoming a focal point for an extended period of convection as surface features ripple along the zone of baroclinicity.

With multiple rounds of precipitation expected, forecast QPF for this period remains high. Based on the current model suite, total QPF from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday night ranges from nearly 3.00 inches in northern areas to 2.00 inches along the high terrain of Pike and Letcher Counties. Once the boundary finally shifts through the area, brief surface high pressure will build into the region before another system approaches for the weekend.

Overall, the period is progged to be active. A weak shortwave arrives Monday, followed by multiple perturbations riding along a stalled front from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday night. A brief reprieve from the rain is expected Friday, but this will be cut short by another potential system for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

VFR conditions without significant wind continue to be forecast through the period. Cumulus and or a mixture of cumulus and mid level clouds were accompanying a shortwave trough across the OH Valley region at issuance time A few sprinkles may fall from these to begin the period and a shower or two cannot be ruled out near KSME and KLOZ before 00Z. North to northwest winds will begin the period at 5 to 10KT, but become light and variable tonight as sfc high pressure builds in. As the high moves east Sunday, south to southwest winds at less than 10KT are anticipated to end the period. Otherwise, gusts to 20KT or more are possible with virga and any shower activity during the first 6 hours of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-080-085>088-104-106>120.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ068-079-083-084.