textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorms return to the area starting this morning in the north and in the afternoon elsewhere. This active weather period continues into the weekend, with rounds of storms probably producing heavy rain along with a localized flood threat.

- An extended period of hot temperatures begins Monday, with high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s and heat indices nearing or exceeding 100 degrees by Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 854 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

Precip has materialized faster than was forecast in our northern counties. Have updated for a higher POP early, with a lowered POP in the wake of the current activity today.

UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with enhanced PoPs in the north per the current radar. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

Saturday night, showers and storms are expected to continue across Eastern Kentucky in the wake of an upper level disturbance. Its associated cold front slowly sags south and stalls over the area. Potential for repeated rounds of showers and storms over the same locations in addition to locally heavy rainfall has prompted a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall from the WPC, where the probability of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding ranges from 15% to 39% in areas south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/Highway-80 corridor. Temperatures look to bottom out in the upper 60s Saturday night.

High pressure across the Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly strengthen and build northward under a strong ridge aloft heading into next week. This building high is expected to put Eastern Kentucky briefly on the lee side of the ridge, and push the cold front back north as a warm front through the first part of Sunday. Showers and storms may persist through the day across the Upper Cumberland and southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins. Temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s through the afternoon before cooling into the upper 60s to low 70s.

As high pressure builds and settles over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through next week, hot and muggy conditions follow. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices of 100-105F are certainly possible. Low temperatures Monday night onward range from the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

Outside of the northernmost TAF sites, VFR conditions will prevail for a good portion of the forecast period, with the forecast going downhill by this evening. Mid to high level clouds, debris from upstream convection, will likely paint the sky for much of the day and tonight. Look for cumulus to again develop during the 14Z to 17Z period - eventually yielding convective chances during the latter 12 hours or so of the aviation period as a cold front sags toward the Ohio Valley. Light and variable winds are expected through about 14Z, giving way to south to southwest winds at 10 kts or less. Winds will be gusty and erratic in and near thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Saturday morning for KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106-107-119.