textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A disturbance will cross the area later tonight, with the potential for a few flurries.

- There is a potential for a more widespread dry, fluffy snow event Friday/Saturday for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on the evolution of a possible large system developing/moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

- Cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a brief warming trend following early next week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM EST WED JAN 28 2026

At the onset of the long term period, the upper air pattern will feature a highly amplified ridge of high pressure at 500-mb, over the Intermountian-West, while an upper level-low begins to deepen downstream, over the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure holds strong over the Northern Plains, while a Gulf low resides over the Southern Louisiana/Mississippi area. As the upper level trough from the Great Lakes works south through Saturday, so does the surface high. As this occurs, the surface low over the south begins to progress northeast, modeled to rapidly intensify off the Carolina coastline, as a Miller-Type-A storm by Saturday evening. This low is then expected to continue close to shore as it heads into New England, by Sunday evening.

For sensible weather in Kentucky, scattered snow showers will be possible under light northeasterly winds, as Cold Air Damming (CAD) will likely occur over the Appalachians, on Friday. Temperatures are expected to range from the lower 20s in the north to the low 30s across the southern part of the CWA. Cold air will continue to advect into the area Friday heading into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night are expected to drop into the single digits across the area, and may hover just a degree or two above zero across the Bluegrass area. As for any potential effects from the Miller-Type-A storm on Saturday, there are still several variables such as storm track, when or if the low closes off, among other things that could alter where greatest impacts are. That said, Cluster Analysis shows fairly good agreement in the overall pattern, troughing in the Southeast US bringing below normal temperatures to the area. As noted in an earlier discussion, 925-mb temperatures neat -20C over Eastern Kentucky early Saturday, may produce light flurries or snow showers across the area if any shallow moisture remains. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 20 for all areas, dropping into the single digits again Saturday night.

Once the trough axis moves through the area Saturday evening, warm air advection (WAA) will allow temperatures to recover some on Sunday, into the low to mid 20s across the area. A warming trend continues into next week, with relatively quiet conditions and highs reaching the 30s on Monday, and the low 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday. temperatures at night will range from the teens on Monday night to lower 20s Tuesday night. The next system that could impact the are looks to occur around mid-week, however models are wide-ranging on outcomes.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026

VFR conditions were noted at TAF issuance and should largely prevail through the period. A few strato-cu clouds are possible this afternoon while a mid-level cloud deck affects many locations, especially near and south of the Mountain Parkway. A disturbance then sags southward across the area tonight, potentially bringing a period of borderline MVFR/VFR ceilings and a small chance for a few flurries. Clearing skies may allow for patchy freezing fog to develop near/north of I-64 toward daybreak on Thursday. Winds will be westerly at 8 to 13 kts with gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon, slackening to light and variable tonight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.