textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, muggy, and mostly dry weather takes hold for Thursday. Afternoon highs around 90 degrees combined with high humidity will push peak heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees.

- A progressive cold front brings widespread showers and numerous thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, with a threat for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall.

- High pressure ushers in a brief break of cooler and drier air for Saturday, before unsettled weather and rain chances return Sunday through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 915 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026

Have trimmed back the high POP in our northeast counties as the concentrated convection looks like it will continue to parallel our northeast border and remain largely in RLX's area.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026

In spite of excellent moisture transport, PWATs near climatological maximums, and favorable conditions for warm layer rain processes, significant rainfall has not materialized as much of guidance had suggested, likely due at least in part to too marginal of forcing. Shower activity is remaining largely confined to far eastern and northeastern Kentucky and has not been particularly heavy, thus the Flood Watch was cancelled early. Today's PoPs and QPF were lowered dramatically with this update.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026

A quick look at the 500-mb heights reveal ridging located over the Lower Great Lakes and portions of Southern Quebec at the start of the period. Upstream to the west, low pressure is occluding over Eastern Manitoba. The system's cold front extends through the Upper Great Lakes across the Upper Midwest and into the Central Plains. Meanwhile, southerly flow around the western periphery of a broad area of high pressure centered over the Central Atlantic will reinforce rich moisture over the eastern third of CONUS.

Dew points ahead of the cold front will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s over eastern Kentucky. Shower and storm chances should generally remain minimal Thursday night (under 15%) into early Friday morning. By 12Z Friday the Upper Midwestern cold front will have advanced to near the Lower Ohio River. Widespread showers and numerous thunderstorms are expected to occur Friday afternoon across eastern Kentucky with the passage of the cold front. Models depict a moist and unstable environment ahead and along the cold front, with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, PWATS around 1.8-1.9 inches, and MUCAPE nearing 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the frontal passage, though the system will be progressive, so that should keep any flooding threat isolated. Quick clearing behind the cold front should allow for fog to form in the river valleys Friday night.

On Saturday, the cold front keeps progressing into the Southeast, leaving mostly clear skies, dry conditions and light northerly winds in its wake. A second cold front will approach the JKL CWA out of the northwest early next week and lead to increasing clouds at first, followed by renewed shower and storm chances. With ample moisture feeding northward around an area of high pressure in the eastern Gulf, shower and storm chances return for Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures through the extended period look to remain in the mid 80s through Sunday, before the second cold front results in cooler highs in the mid 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures remain elevated Thursday night, settling into the upper 60s to mid 70s. With a frontal passage Friday afternoon, Friday night's low temperatures are poised to be 10 degrees cooler. These cooler low temperatures persist for the remainder of the extended forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect far northeastern Kentucky, mainly northeast of a SYM to SJS line at TAF issuance. Otherwise, variable cloud cover of the VFR variety was noted. Some worsening in the ceilings is possible over the next few hours at SJS, SYM, and IOB near the ongoing convection. Otherwise, quieter weather is expected further south and west with any ceilings generally staying above MVFR thresholds. Sustained winds will be around 10 kts or less through the period, though a few brief gusts to between 10 and 20 kts are possible late this morning and afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.