textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather should last through at least Sunday morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms will make a return Sunday night and Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 958 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Mid morning observations have been blended into the forecast, without any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Main update was to Sky grids, increasing cloud cover to account for a mid-level cloud deck that is poised to move across the area later this morning through early afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with just minor updates to hourly T/Td grids, using the latest hourly observations as the initialization of the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 306 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Fast zonal flow will push a low pressure system east along a warm front/stationary boundary from west-central IL Sunday evening to the Central Appalachians Monday evening. A trailing progressive shortwave will move east along the trailing cold front from the Central Plains through the OH/TN valleys, crossing central and eastern Kentucky during the day Monday. An excessive rainfall risk remains for later Sunday through Monday, both with the strong warm advection and moisture transport northeast across central and northeastern Kentucky late Sunday, followed by a likely higher risk for Monday as flow becomes more westerly and allows for better moisture transport to penetrate into far eastern and southeastern Kentucky, at least briefly. While this event does not look as robust as the previous system, the recent heavy rainfall will mean soils and small streams will be a bit more susceptible to flash flooding and high water issues. Additionally, sufficient shear and instability will likely exist during this time to support a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms from late Sunday through frontal passage Monday, with damaging winds being the primary severe weather threat both days.

Progressive cyclonic flow aloft persists through the remainder of the week within a broad longwave trough across much of the northern and eastern CONUS, with mostly dry conditions expected Tuesday through much of Wednesday as surface high pressure moves across the area. Additional disturbances will likely push from the Northern and Central High Plains through the central part of the country for the remainder of the period, bringing a return of shower and thunderstorm chances, though there is relatively poor model agreement on the details of the timing, magnitude, and location of these disturbances moving through the progressive flow.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 714 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with the exception of valley fog formation late tonight, which may impact KSME and KLOZ with IFR or worse conditions. Otherwise, winds will be light at night and west at less than 10 kts during the daylight hours.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.