textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Repeated rounds of heavy rain through Wednesday may cause localized high water or flooding, especially north of the Mountain Parkway (particularly in/around Fleming County).

- A few strong to severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly north of the Mountain Parkway.

- Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday and Saturday, threatening daily record highs.

- A strong cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, some of which could be strong to severe.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a well defined warm front now just north of the Ohio River. This has placed eastern Kentucky in this system's warm sector even as the showers remain along and north of the boundary. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 50s north to the lower 60s in the south. Meanwhile, amid south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as including the latest CAMs guidance for PoPs as the front starts to settle back south starting later this evening. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 408 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

The models are in good agreement showing the long-term kicking off Thursday morning with a 500 hPa high over the Caribbean with a ridging axis extending northward into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, troughing prevails over the Intermountain West and northern Rockies. A shortwave trough axis is noted over the Midwest in advance of the trough. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is modeled to track northeast across Illinois while its associated cold front trails to the southwest back across Oklahoma.

Guidance is in good agreement through Friday, providing strong confidence in the forecast. The shortwave and its associated surface reflection will continue to track northeast over the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday, with a secondary low developing off the southern New England Coast late Thursday night. The system's trailing cold front stalls out along or north of the Ohio River earlier in the evening. This will likely keep continued rain chances in the forecast over eastern Kentucky. That boundary begins lifting back to the north late Thursday night and Friday as a new low pressure takes shape over the Central High Plains. This occurs as the parent upper-level trough splits, with a significant portion of the energy ejecting northeast as a shortwave across the Central Rockies and the other portion retrograding into a closed low off the Baja California Peninsula. Over the Ohio Valley, the developing warm sector will be inundated with a moist and anomalously mild subtropical air mass (850 hPa temperatures rising to 13-14C) until the arrival of the new low pressure system's cold front on Saturday. The combination of temperatures near or above record levels and dew points rising into the 50s to near 60F is modeled to support several hundred to ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE on Friday. However, rising heights and a notable stable layer near 700 hPa will likely keep a lid on most convection. If an updraft did overcome the cap, there could be a brief garden variety shower or thunderstorm.

As the cold front approaches on Saturday, that cap disappears and sfc-500 hPa shear increases to 30 to 40 kts--an environment supportive of more extensive and potentially stronger convection. AI severe convective forecast probabilities from the GEFS and ECMWF all point to at least a lower-end risk for severe weather across the JKL CWA. More notable model disparities are noted going into Saturday and Sunday, especially around the amplitude and eastward progression of the shortwave trough as it is captured by a northern stream trough digging into Southeastern Canada. This flattens the upper-level ridge and leaves behind quasi-zonal flow over the Eastern CONUS on Sunday. Consequently, the system's cold front plows into the Ohio Valley on Saturday only to anemically stall out as the upper-level forcing is sheared to the northeast. Modestly cooler (850 hPa temperatures settling to 8-10C) and drier air follows the front Sunday morning before the boundary begins to push back north as a warm front. As heat and humidity return, so will the daily threat of convection as weak impulses pass through the flow aloft.

In sensible weather terms, showers will gradually move in from the northwest on Thursday but generally weaken and struggle to reach far southeastern Kentucky. A stray rumble of thunder cannot be entirely ruled out. It will be mild with high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s north of the Mountain Parkway to the upper 70s to around 80F further south and east under partly to mostly sunny skies and a busy southwest breeze. Thursday night should become partly cloudy but remain quite mild with lows ranging in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Near-record to record-setting warmth follows for Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. An afternoon shower or isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out (20-30% chance). The very mild weather continues Friday night and Saturday with lows in the lower to mid 60s and highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become widespread (80-90% chance) on Saturday, some of which could be strong to severe. Cooler weather follows for Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s before a warming trend ensues for the remainder of the period. There will be a continued chance of showers each day along with the possibility of a few thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 705 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026

A warm front is temporarily stalled along the Ohio-Kentucky boarder early this evening. Showers continue along and north of this boundary and as it settles back south tonight its convection will work back into the aviation forecast area. A stray thunderstorm or two may initiate along the front late tonight but confidence is too low for placing any threat into the TAFs at those locations. Most sites will see showers for the latter part of the night and though the bulk of the day on, Wednesday, most persistent at KIOB, KSYM, KSJS, and KJKL. Winds are generally expected to remain out of the south to southwest through the duration of the TAF period generally at 7 to 12 kts. In addition, a bit of LLWS will be around this evening and early overnight, from the southwest at up to 40 kts, just off the sfc.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.