textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintery mix of precipitation is expected to spread north across the forecast area after dawn on Monday morning, but accumulations are forecast to be light. - A significant warming trend is expected over the next work week, but this leads to repetitive precipitation chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 1224 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026

Blended latest obs and model data into the forecast, but changes were fairly minimal.

UPDATE Issued at 854 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026

Latest obs and model trends have been worked into the forecast. This includes slightly colder temperatures for some locations overnight into Monday morning. This continues to present a threat of wintery precipitation from around dawn through Monday morning in the northern portion of the forecast area. It still appears any snow or ice accumulations would be very light and limited by warm ground. The main risk is likely to be elevated surfaces in locations where air temperatures make it below freezing.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1253 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026

Zonal 500h pattern will exist at the beginning of the long term (Tuesday morning) with a warm/stationary front becoming established just to our north across the Ohio River Valley. Warm advection will increase through the end of the week as the upper pattern becomes increasingly more southwesterly, with deep troughing over the Southwest US and strong ridging over the Western Atlantic. The result will be temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal on average, with the potential for a few 80-degree readings across parts of the area Friday before a weak cold frontal passage next weekend lowers temperatures at least partially and temporarily back towards normal readings.

The period has the potential to become quite active with rain chances generally increasing through the remainder of the week ahead of the expected cold frontal passage next weekend, with generally higher chances expected toward the northern and western parts of the forecast area. Thunderstorms will be a good bet as moisture increases and stability lowers, with the potential for a few strong storms by next weekend. Additionally, with the significant warm and moisture advection into the area it would seem reasonable there will be at least some increased risk for excessive rainfall for parts of the area, especially if there are multiple consecutive days of showers and storms.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period and will last through most of the night. Precipitation should develop eastward into the area around dawn and persist into the day. It is expected to initially be a mix of snow and freezing rain over the northern portion of the forecast area, and rain in the south. Even in the north, precipitation will go over to rain as temperatures warm during the morning. Conditions will deteriorate as the precipitation arrives, with generally IFR or low end MVFR expected. Some improvement back to VFR is possible in the afternoon, especially in the southern portion of the forecast area.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.