textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will inch higher through midweek, with humidity creeping higher Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cold front moving into the area late in the week will give us our next expectation of showers and thunderstorms Thursday or Thursday night.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 221 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026

The period begins Wednesday morning with stout ridging over the southern half of the CONUS, while an active zonal jet stream remains across the far northern CONUS. The ridge will progressively get shunted south and east through Thursday and into Friday as a progressive shortwave pushes a cold front southeast into the southern Ohio Valley. However, it appears that the shortwave may outrun the surface front, leaving it to decay over or north of eastern Kentucky into the weekend as mid-level ridging builds back over the region.

The NBM was kept for the extended period, with the exception of adding modest ridge-valley splits for Wednesday night into Thursday morning ahead of the approaching system. Considerable uncertainty arises in the greater synoptic pattern as the coming weekend progresses into next week, particularly concerning the evolution of a cut-off upper level low over the Pacific Northwest this weekend, with downstream implications over the Midwest and Ohio Valley as ensemble systems become increasingly out of phase with each other.

WPC has introduced a Slight Risk ERO for Thursday into Thursday night across much of WV and into northeastern and far eastern Kentucky. This is as the approaching system Thursday into Friday will be intruding into a warm and humid environment characterized by PWs peaking in the 90th-95th percentile (according to the LREF) across much of the area northwest of the Cumberland Mountains. The orientation of the front, the perpendicular upslope wind component on the backside of the front, and the timing of arrival of heavy rain and/or thunderstorms at or near peak heating all suggest some potential for flash flooding potential along the windward side of the Appalachians.

PoPs are continued into the weekend as it appears the front decays over the region to end the week, with the potential for additional shortwaves and possibly weak surface lows to initiate at least spotty showers and thunderstorms across the area before mid-level heights likely rise Sunday into Monday of next week.

There is high confidence that temperatures remain above normal through the period, with the coolest day (and closest to normal readings) coming Friday with the upper trough overhead. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with lows mostly in the 60s, though a few lower 70s readings are possible Wednesday night in the warm humid environment ahead of the approaching front.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026

VFR conditions are present shortly before TAF issuance, and aside from localized late night/early morning valley fog (not expected at TAF sites), will be predominant through the period. Won't completely rule out very isolated showers this afternoon or early evening southwest of KY Rt. 15, but the probability at KLOZ and KSME is too low to explicitly address in TAFs.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.