textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure slowly builds into the region over the next several days, bringing about a return to drier weather.

- A warming trend begins today, with high temperatures gradually climbing each day through the upcoming workweek.

- Expect widespread valley lows near/below freezing through next Thursday night.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 157 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2026

At the start of the long term period, 500 mb troughing will be centered over the Atlantic Coast, with expansive ridging over much of the interior United States, excluding a cutoff low initially located in the ArkLaTex vicinity. Farther west, troughing will be located over the Pacific Coast, and as this trough digs towards the Southwest, it will force the Central US ridge eastward. Meanwhile, the cutoff low will weaken and drift southeast before it is eventually absorbed into the broader Atlantic trough. Even as these features progress, ridging will persist locally, with just a lone shortwave trough translating northeast along the ridge periphery on Thursday and Friday, bringing no impacts to the forecast area. At the surface, this pattern will maintain high pressure near the forecast area for the duration of the long term period, with no other notable surface features approaching eastern Kentucky. Accordingly, weather in the long term period looks to be uneventful, with no precipitation expected.

As midlevel heights rise through midweek, temperatures will trend warmer. Highs in the 50s on Monday will climb to the mid 60s by Wednesday, nearly 10 degrees above average. At this point, LREF mean 500 mb heights look to be firmly above the 95th percentile compared to climatology, indicating the anomalous strength of this ridge. As the 500 mb ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area, little "relief" from above average temperatures is expected. The eastward shift of the associated surface high will lead to southwesterly winds locally, advecting warm and more moist air into the forecast area. Accordingly, temperatures could climb into the low 70s by the end of the period. Dewpoints should rebound somewhat, too; initially, afternoon dewpoints will be quite dry, in the upper 20s and low 30s, with the lowest minimum RH values expected to be in the 25-30% range on Wednesday and Thursday (although light winds should work to mitigate fire weather concerns). However, as winds become more southwesterly, dewpoints will rise, reaching into the 40s by the end of the period. This increased moisture should allow a few clouds to return to the forecast by Thursday (marking a transition from "sunny" to "mostly sunny"), but otherwise, impacts will be minimal. Expect low temperatures to follow this warming trend as well, although robust ridge/valley temperature splits will develop each night as clear skies and a weak pressure gradient remain in place. As cold air drains into the valleys, these locations could see temperatures in the low to mid 20s on Tuesday morning. By the end of the period, however, valley lows will climb into the upper 30s and low 40s, while overnight temperatures will consistently remain warmer on ridges.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 654 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2026

Most sites were experiencing a low VFR stratus deck around 4 kft at the 00z TAF issuance time. The stratus is expected to linger through the TAF period with breaks most probable at times for LOZ and SME. Further north and east the stratus will tend to be lower, more contiguous, and is forecast to dip to MVFR at JKL and SJS (possibly at least briefly at SYM and IOB as well) overnight. VFR ceilings should return area-wide during the day on Sunday. Winds will remain largely out of the northwest and are expected to stay under 10 knots.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.