textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures will last into the weekend, with milder readings then returning early next week.

- There is a potential for a soaking rain during the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 344 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026

The forecast period begins with surface high pressure anchored beneath upper-level ridging. However, through Friday night and early Saturday, the ridge axis will shift eastward as an upper-level trough and associated surface low eject out of the Desert Southwest toward the Commonwealth. Ahead of this system, Saturday will remain dry and mild, with high temperatures reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s.

This warmth will be short-lived as the surface wave approaches by Saturday evening. The low is forecast to track into the Ozarks while its associated warm front lifts into the Tennessee Valley. This synoptic setup will lead to increasing PoPs Saturday evening, with chances ramping up overnight as the system moves through the deep South. This track keeps the region well within the precipitation shield. Forecast soundings during the system passage indicate high PW values, deep-layer moisture, and a tall, skinny CAPE profile, suggesting efficient rainfall processes. Consequently, QPF values have trended upward by about half an inch compared to previous forecasts. New totals are expected to range from 0.75 inches along the Bluegrass and I-64 corridor to nearly 1.25 inches across the Cumberland Basin and Plateau. Given these totals and recent snowmelt, rises on local streams and rivers are likely.

Showers will persist through much of Sunday before the system exits to the east by Monday morning. Surface high pressure will then build back into the region, remaining the dominant feature through early next week. By Wednesday, a passing shortwave in central Canada will drag a cold front through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley, bringing renewed rain chances through the end of the period. Ahead of this front, the region will reside in the warm sector with a strengthening LLJ. LREF probabilities indicate a 50 to 60 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph on Wednesday.

Overall, the period remains active with multiple disturbances expected. The first system may pose hydrologic concerns due to heavy rainfall. After a brief cool-down on Sunday, a warming trend will push highs into the 60s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will follow a similar trajectory, rising from the mid 20s this weekend to the lower 50s by Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026

Conditions are VFR across the board for the 06Z TAF cycle. High clouds do continue to move in from the west, but these will not impact aviation concerns. There is a small chance that some patchy valley freezing fog develops after 06Z however confidence too low at this time that it will affect any TAF sites, so it was not included. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Look for winds to be light and variable during the rest of the night and the day, Thursday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.