textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms bring the risk of localized heavy rain and flash flooding this afternoon and evening.

- A Flood Watch is active from 1 PM to 10 PM today, mainly south of the Mountain Parkway and east of I-75.

- Isolated severe storms with damaging winds and large hail are possible in far southeastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening.

- Dry, cool weather settles in Thursday through the weekend before temperatures moderate early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 935 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026

Some very isolated showers have been occurring. However, overall, precip is a little slow to develop. Based on obs and latest model guidance, have slowed down the uptick in POPs. Have also adjusted sky cover to show more range, with overcast skies in many places which carry further into the day.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026

Overall, the long term period will be characterized by cool and quiet weather, owing to a fairly persistent midlevel ridge west of the forecast area. At the start of the period, a vertically stacked low will be located off of the North Carolina coast, with a highly amplified ridge over the central CONUS. This low will deepen as it lifts into the Northeast, blocking any eastward progression of the ridge. Eastern Kentucky will find itself on the western edge of northeastern troughing through at least the weekend, with most guidance suggesting that this system will lift far north into Canada by early next week. This will allow the ridge axis to progress eastward, with the next major system not approaching until the very end of the forecast period.

At the surface, this large scale pattern should keep weather cool and dry through the weekend. Largely northeasterly winds around a surface high over the Great Lakes will relegate dewpoints to the 40s, peaking in the mid 50s at their wettest. Even with mostly clear skies each day, highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. In short, it will finally feel less like summer and more like fall. Overnight, clear skies and light winds will enable efficient radiational cooling, with ridge valley splits expected to develop. MOS guidance suggests temperatures will bottom out in the low 40s in particularly sheltered valley locations on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings. Given that most guidance agrees temperatures could fall into the mid 40s overnight (even without considering terrain factors), this seems very feasible. It may be time to get your jacket out.

By early next week, temperatures will warm somewhat as the ridge expands eastward. Highs will climb into the low 80s in many locations by Tuesday, although weather will still be dry. As of now, the next rain chance looks to be Wednesday as a large scale system approaches, but the details remain fuzzy this far out.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026

Largely MVFR conditions were present to start the period, with a smattering of VFR near the VA border, and IFR north of the Mountain Parkway. There were also showers and thunderstorms affecting some locations, especially near the VA border and from around KFGX to KSJS, bringing localized IFR or worse conditions.

Varying conditions are expected to last into the night, but largely settling on MVFR and IFR, along with showers at times and a few thunderstorms. Precipitation should mostly taper off overnight, but gradual improvement in conditions is not expected until the day on Thursday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ069-080-085>088- 107>120.