textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will affect most of the area at times into this evening.

- Warm and mainly dry weather will dominate the early part of the new work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1043 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026

The forecast was updated to reflect latest precip trends on radar and mesoscale models as the mid-upper level low approaches and moves over today. Also adjusted timing/locations of thunder potential. Isolated heavy rainfall occurred over portions of Bath and Fleming counties this morning in a persistent convective band. Confidence in additional occurrences is rather low, and have foregone a Flood Watch at this point. Antecedent conditions are more favorable further east in WV where heavier rain was more widespread last night.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026

The extended portion of the forecast seems reasonable with focus on the Southeast 5h ridge retreating out of Kentucky by mid week. This should allow a frontal system to start to impact the state from the north. Late in the week there looks to be a potential for a stronger frontal passage in connection with a strong upper trough working into the Ohio Valley - though the models are not well aligned with this feature, at this point, reducing confidence in the specifics and timing details of this upcoming pattern change.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The extended period opens Monday morning with the remnant low from Isaias departing the area towards the northeast into the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England. A few residual light showers across the far eastern fringes of the Jackson CWA early Monday morning gives way to a strong upper-level ridge. An unseasonably warm and dry start to the extended forecast period across eastern Kentucky will yield to an active weather pattern by mid-week, marked by a strong cold front, rising precipitation chances, and a sharp autumn cool- down for the weekend.

The strong upper-level ridge centered across the Central US and Ohio Valley, keeps eastern Kentucky under subsidence with decreasing clouds through the day. 500 mb heights running in the 80th to 95th percentile for mid-October will push daytime temperatures well above seasonal normals through Thursday, generally ranging 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s. Tuesdays forecast high temperature of 82 at the JKL airport is within 2 degrees of the established record high of 84, set back in 1985. In fact, the 00Z LREF ensemble shows a 35 to 40 percent chance of reaching 84 degrees.

Model soundings from Monday and Tuesday afternoons show steep low-level lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb with a pronounced dry layer above the boundary layer. To account for this boundary layer mixing, raw model guidance was blended with the deterministic NBM to slightly lower dew points both afternoons. Through the day Tuesday, the pressure gradient across the area increases ahead of an approaching system from the Central Plains. This increased gradient could lead to breezy conditions in the Bluegrass and areas along and west of I-75 Tuesday afternoon, where wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are possible. While warm, dry, and a little breezy, fire weather should not be of too much concern as min RH remains in the upper 30s to mid 40s through the day.

High pressure anchored off the Southeast coast will maintain warm advection through mid-week. However, a weak surface boundary sagging south across the Ohio Valley will bring low-end rain chances to eastern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A more significant pattern shift occurs Thursday as a cut-off low over the Four Corners ejects northeastward toward the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As the boundary lifts back north as a warm front, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will tap directly into Gulf moisture, advecting some across the Commonwealth. Model and ensemble agreement begins to drop toward the second half of the extended period. It will be interesting to see how this cutoff low from the Four Corners interacts with the northern stream as it approaches the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday onward. Due to the uncertainty, the NBM deterministic has maintained smoothed-out isolated to scattered PoPs across the area Thursday and Friday. Some ensembles are showing PWATs across eastern Kentucky climbing from around 1.0 inch early Thursday to 1.4 inches by Thursday evening and Friday morning - representing an anomalous moisture plume near the 90th percentile for mid- October. While the present forecast doesn't have heavy rainfall due to model uncertainty, the anomalous moisture plume in some ensembles hints that heavy rainfall near the end of the week remains a possibility.

A cold front associated with this late-week system could pass through eastern Kentucky during the day Friday. Behind the front, cold, dry continental polar air is modeled to intrude into the Ohio Valley Friday evening and Saturday. PWAT steadily falls through Saturday, modeled by some as low as 0.2 to 0.4 inches. Temperatures that were once 5 to 10 degrees above normal could swing 5 to 10 degrees below normal by next Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Widely varying conditions were present at TAF issuance, but were mainly MVFR or worse. There were some pockets of VFR in southeast KY, while the most widespread IFR or worse was near and north of the Mountain Parkway. Light showers were also occurring over most of the area.

Generally IFR or worse conditions are expected to become predominant this afternoon and last through most if not all of the night. Some lifting or eroding of ceilings is likely to arrive from the west overnight. However, if it occurs, it would probably give way to fog development. Meaningful, lasting improvement is not expected until the day on Monday. VFR conditions are forecast to return area wide by the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.