textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier air arrives and settle in through the first half of the week.

- A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM EDT this morning. - Frost is also possible tonight and Tuesday night, with a few of the normally colder and sheltered valley locations possibly experiencing a freeze Monday night and/or Tuesday night. - Temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal during the second half of the week, with mainly rain-free weather expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 1024 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

Made minor adjustments in the very near term based on late evening obs, but nothing substantive for the overall forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 711 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

Late day obs were blended into the forecast. Have also lowered forecast min temps for tonight slightly in some valleys, with coldest readings around 30.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 251 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday in the wake of the reinforcing cold front Monday evening/night, with highs only reaching the mid 50s north to lower 60s south. Surface high pressure will be moving off to the east, however, and allowing for return southerly flow to develop by Wednesday afternoon. This sets up a good scenario for a larger ridge-valley split for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, with the potential for frost/freeze conditions once again, particularly in the valleys.

Southerly low-level flow will also support low humidity through much of the week due to a downslope component off of higher terrain to the south and southeast. Significant ridge-valley splits in temperatures are thus expected during the overnight periods through the week, with colder valleys possibly seeing additional rounds of frost formation through at least Thursday night.

Otherwise, the main story of the long-term period will be the lengthy period of rain-free weather extending into next weekend, and the strengthening warm advection resulting in temperatures returning to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by late in the week. Note that these temperatures, especially daytime highs, may trend higher later this week as the deterministic NBM values are currently on the lower side of the probabilistic envelope.

A cold front moving southeast toward the area late week into next weekend may allow for a remote/low chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. However, the vast majority of model guidance at that time frame indicates the activity will remain north of the Ohio River.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026

VFR conditions with initial passing high clouds and then a few low level clouds are anticipated as high pressure shifts south of the area and a moisture starved cold front sags across eastern KY between 15Z and 00Z. After light and variable winds during the first 6 hours of the period, winds will pick up between 12Z and 18Z to the 5 to 14KT range from west to northwest with winds becoming northwest areawide with gusts to around 20KT near and behind the front. No ceilings are forecast during the period and winds will slacken again during the 23Z to 00Z period with VFR continuing as another sfc high builds in from the upper MS Valley.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.