textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms today into this evening will bring the possibility of heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind gusts. Training thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding.

- Lower humidity and dry weather arrives by late Tuesday and lasts through Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

High pressure will still be well in control for Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday night. While the high pressure system will keep conditions dry during this time, the position of the high will start to shift eastward, placing much of KY in the return flow side with increased warm southerly winds. Highs Wednesday will rise back into the low to mid 80s, with increased humidity as well.

Unfortunately, as the high pressure continues to shift eastward, this opens up the region for more weather makers. The first will start to impact eastern KY on Thursday, a strong upper level low moves into the Upper Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario. Upper level troughing will not be that strong, but a fairly potent low pressure system will still be present across the Great Lakes Region by 18Z on Thursday. With continued and increasing SW flow into the state at the surface, a warm front will develop to our north during the day Thursday. This will put much of KY in the warm and unstable sector, introducing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day ahead of the associated cold front.

The cold front itself will significantly slow its forward movement heading into Thursday as the forcing low pressure system continues to quickly shift eastward towards SE Canada and New England, and begins to elongate the boundary. So rather than the cold front actually passing through Kentucky on Friday, it will stall a bit, and continue the shower and thunderstorm potential for much of the state. Expect that generally precip chances will decline overnight with the loss of daytime mixing/instability, and increase again during the daytime hours both Thursday and Friday...however the current forecast does still carry some isolated to scattered chances both nights.

Things get a little interesting Friday night into Saturday as the system starts to pivot and lift back north as a warm front across much of the Central Mississippi Valley region, and stalls across eastern Kentucky. The result will be a line of showers and thunderstorms along the boundary from Friday night and through the day Saturday. As of now the boundary remains in place across Kentucky even into Sunday, continuing the rain and thunderstorm chances. However, do want to note that the models do start to diverge quite a bit heading into the weekend, especially for Sunday, so expect that this forecast will still shift and change quite a bit as we get closer in time.

Without a frontal boundary actually passing through the state, the temperatures should not show any major changes, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s and decent clouds and humidity to accompany the warmer temperatures and rain chances for the second half of the work-week. Tuesday night lows might be the coolest, in the 50s, with the high passing nearby (strong subsidence and mostly clear skies) and winds still generally northerly. After that point, expect generally consistent lows in the 60s, which is fairly normal for this time of year.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

Steadier showers and thunderstorms are pushing through the northern TAF sites ATTM. Expect these to fade out as they spread south becoming more scattered and probably never fully clearing out into the daylight hours of morning. Look for the convective cells to start to renew by midday crossing and lingering over much of eastern Kentucky throughout the day. There is still a good amount of uncertainty concerning the evolution of the convection today, though. As a result, a generalized forecast for IFR conditions, at times during the precip, was continued in the TAFs. Winds for much of today will be southwest at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to near 20 kts - but erratic with higher top speeds near any thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068- 069-080-085>088-104-106>120.