textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot summer weather continues into tomorrow, with widespread heat indices in the 90s. A few locations may experience maximum heat indices around 100 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

- Chances for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms return to the forecast tomorrow across the southwestern half of the area.

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend as high temperatures return to near-normal values in the 80s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Subtropical ridging aloft will extend from the Atlantic westward into the southeast CONUS at the start of the period, but it will be in an ongoing weakening trend. Deep moisture pivoting around the southwestern side of the weakening ridge will arrive in our area from the west on Friday and Friday night as a weak upper level wave approaches from the west northwest on the southwest side of a strengthening northeast CONUS trough. Our low level flow will also be picking up out of the west southwest, providing low level moisture transport. These factors all lead to an increasing potential for showers/thunderstorms as we move into the weekend, with additional peaks due to diurnal heating/destabilization occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours on Friday and Saturday. In association with the northeast CONUS trough, models now are offering a little bit stronger cold front arriving from the north on Saturday night and Sunday as compared to 24 hours ago. This could keep a higher POP ongoing into Sunday, but should the front pass cleanly, it would also allow for more of a drop in POP from Sunday night into Monday as the aforementioned wave departs and subtle geopotential height rises occur.

Another wave is expected to rotate through the upper trough and support a more significant cold front to approach on Tuesday and move through Tuesday night. Another increase in POP would be expected with this, followed by the arrival of lower dew points and probably dry weather on Wednesday after fropa.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites this afternoon. A diurnally-drive cumulus field has developed across the CWA, with the greatest spatial coverage across southern and western terminals. These clouds are less likely to evolve into rain showers than they were yesterday, and they are poised to subside after sunset. Valley fog is once again forecast to develop overnight, with both probabilistic and persistence guidance suggesting that IFR reductions are most likely at KSME and then KLOZ by tomorrow morning. KSJS and KSYM could see brief reductions to MVFR vsbys from patchier fog, and all of the above has been handled with TEMPO groups with the 18z TAF issuance. Expect fog to mix out by mid-morning and give way to another day of convective cumulus clouds tomorrow afternoon. Precipitation chances increase at SW terminals just beyond the end of the period, so interests with future flight plans are encouraged to monitor for further TAF issuances. Expect winds to remain generally light and variable for the duration of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.