textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures rise to the middle and upper 80s by the start of the weekend. - Dry conditions remain in place through Saturday afternoon, but a pattern shift will bring daily shower and thunderstorm chances to the region from late Saturday into next week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 330 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026

The pattern will remain amplified over the majority of the CONUS through the middle of next week, with a transition to blockier flow as well for the latter portion of the extended period. A ridge center will begin positioned across the southeastern U.S. Progressive short wave energy will be riding east across the Great Lakes, while a broader closed low meanders northeast from southwest Texas. Meanwhile, a deep low pressure system will be moving onshore across the Pacific Northwest with a sharpening ridge axis aligned from Hudson Bay through the northern Plains/Upper Midwest region. This ridge will generally expand and eventually take up more real estate across the Mississippi Valley by the middle of next week, with more of an omega-type block pattern established across the CONUS by that time. Plenty of uncertainty continues regarding the exact evolution of this pattern and smaller-scale features that will dictate our weather details. There remains high confidence with above normal temperatures continuing across the Commonwealth, with generally more unsettled weather, given the gradually increasing low level moisture.

The extended period of dry weather will continue through Saturday, with temperatures rebounding into the mid to upper 80s once again, likely a few degrees higher than Friday. A surface cold front will approach the area late Saturday night, with a small uptick in rain chances. Guidance has generally trended down on PoPs compared to yesterday at this time, with only a few showers looking possible. Rain chances still look to peak on Sunday, as the boundary draws closer, although best chances will generally be along and northeast of KY-15. The frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of the area early next week, keeping diurnally driven chance PoPs going. This regime will continue through the middle of next week, although PoPs are lower confidence, given the questionable forcing at that timeframe.

Temperatures will warm to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by the middle of next week, with highs modifying from the mid to upper 80s, to the upper 80s and near 90 at times. Lows will average in the 60s each night. Dew points will also gradually creep up to more uncomfortable levels with time.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the period with only some sparse fair weather cumulus this afternoon. Valley fog is expected again tonight, diminishing gradually between 12z and 14z. KLOZ and KSME may see a brief reduction in visibility, but confidence is too low to include any mention in the TAFs at this time. Winds will be light and variable, or from the west or southwest at 5 kts or less, through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.