textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms at times into the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area from this afternoon through early Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1215 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

Refreshed the T/Td/sky grids with the latest observational data from around the region. Also regenerated SAFs to remove fog wording from this morning, otherwise, forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the PoPs through noon. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday - becoming more of a risk with time.

The previous long term discussion follows:

At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains.

For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday.

By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed.

Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

The worst of the fog and low clouds are confined to just a couple of TAF terminals at 12Z issuance time. Then, uncertainty abounds during the day concerning timing of showers/thunderstorms. It's likely that most places will be affected at some point. However, there is so much uncertainty regarding exact timing that it has been handled with PROB30 groups in the afternoon and evening with poor conditions via low VIS and CIGs. Outside of any storm, winds will be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.