textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper system is on track to produce a widespread and impactful accumulating snow tonight into Friday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for this system over much of eastern Kentucky.

- Another light to moderate snowfall is increasingly likely Saturday night and early Sunday.

- An arctic airmass with well below normal temperatures moves into our region for Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1210 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025

Forecast remains on track, with most recent observational data being incorporated in to temperature forecasts. No major changes were made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 845 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025

Winter Weather Advisories were cancelled as the substantive snow showers have departed. Forecast remains largely on track. Expect more clouds than sun today with high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 30s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 416 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025

The extended forecast window opens with lingering, post-frontal upslope snow showers stemming from Fridays preceding clipper system. Weak surface high pressure is forecast to build into the area, but this will be very short-lived as extended model guidance and associated ensembles remain in strong agreement and maintain consistency regarding a subsequent fast-moving clipper system. This second system is projected to track across the central CONUS, reaching the CWA vicinity by late Saturday night into Sunday.

Very few significant changes have occurred with respect to the temporal and spatial components of this incoming feature. The PoP is expected to increase Saturday afternoon. This system is generally forecast to maintain a more northerly track. With this northerly trajectory, the heaviest precipitation is concentrated north of the CWA, primarily along and north of the Ohio River. However, of note, some model trends suggest a potential southward shift in the track, and a few guidance runs have hinted at this possibility. This potential shift would have significant consequences on anticipated snowfall totals, the placement of the freezing line, and which areas receive frozen versus liquid precipitation. Nonetheless, the highest snow accumulations are currently forecast along and north of a line from Powell to Pike Counties through Sunday morning, but this delineation could change should the feature shift north or south.

Unseasonably cold surface high pressure will subsequently build into the region behind the departing low-pressure system on Sunday, advecting some of the coldest air of the season thus far through the early part of the succeeding week. A gradual warming trend is expected by the middle of next week, preceding the approach of another synoptic system for Wednesday.

In summary, the period will be characterized by the passage of two distinct clipper systems. Lingering post-frontal snow showers will initiate the period from the first clipper, and a second fast-moving clipper is forecast for Saturday night into Sunday. There remains some uncertainty regarding total snowfall accumulations with the Saturday/Sunday system, but at a minimum, the issuance of Winter Weather Advisories will be necessary to cover this expected event. Strong surface high pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on Sunday, driving minimum temperatures down to the upper single digits and mid-teens. A notable warm advection regime ahead of the next system is forecast to commence by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025

MVFR ceilings, with a few breaks possible at times, will persist through the afternoon. Another fast-moving clipper low will bring a period of steady snow tonight leading to deteriorating conditions this evening and early overnight. The worst conditions (IFR or worse) are anticipated over the northeastern half of the CWA, including JKL, SJS, and SYM. The precipitation will be lightest and of shortest duration near Lake Cumberland and heaviest and persistent north of the Mountain Parkway. Winds will be westerly at less than 10 kts today becoming light variable to southerly tonight. Rain may mix with snow at sites JKL, SYM, and SJS towards the end of the TAF period as a warm front overruns the cold air as the system begins to exit, Friday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-088-104-106>115- 118>120.