textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler air settles in today. Temperatures tonight will dip into the mid to upper 30s in valleys, bringing the potential for valley fog and localized patches of frost.

- A warming trend begins Friday with afternoon highs returning to the mid 70s to low 80s by Sunday.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area for the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1006 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

Drier air continues to work into the area from the northwest. Dew points have started to drop into the upper 30s across northern portions of the forecast area. The grids have been updated with the latest observational data from around the area. The forecast remains on track for clouds to slowly thin out and dissipate as drier air works in.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

Clouds continue to lift and thin across eastern Kentucky at daybreak as drier air continues to work into the region. The forecast remains on track through the remainder of the day.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

The forecast period begins with surface high pressure shifting eastward as a surface low pressure tracks toward the Great Lakes. This system is driven by a mid-to-upper-level trough and an associated jet streak diving southeastward from central Canada. By the start of the extended period, the region will reside within the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Overnight Friday into Saturday, the surface wave will track through the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes, dragging the cold front through the CWA. Frontal timing remains unfavorable for organized convection, as the boundary is progged to clear the area by late Saturday morning/midday. Weak surface high pressure will then build into the region for the remainder of the day.

Extended guidance maintains good synoptic agreement heading into the latter half of the weekend. The first of two disturbances is progged to lift northeastward out of the Deep South, perhaps clipping the southern half of the CWA. Simultaneously, a secondary shortwave will rotate around a quasi-stationary circulation parked over Hudson Bay. This second wave is forecast to drive another cold front south through the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. The interaction of these features will lead to increased PoPs through early Monday morning before the cold frontal passage ushers both systems out of the region. Surface high pressure builds in for the early work week, initiating a warming trend through Wednesday ahead of the next system diving out of central Canada.

The overall pattern remains active with two frontal passages and a southern stream low impacting the region. Temperatures will generally remain near seasonal norms, with Monday progged as the coolest day of the period following the second frontal passage. Overnight lows will also follow a seasonal norm, with the exception of Monday night into Tuesday. During this window, clearing skies and light winds may promote efficient radiational cooling, potentially dropping temperatures into the lower 40s or even upper 30s in typical cold spots.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

At the 12Z TAF issuance, VFR conditions prevailed across all of eastern Kentucky with exception of the terminals in far southeastern Kentucky adjacent to the KY-VA border. The improving conditions will continue through the morning for all areas as drier air moves in from the northwest behind a departing cold front. A shallow cu field is expected to develop later this morning and persist through the afternoon at 4 to 6 kft AGL but will then dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. For tonight, high pressure cresting over the area will lead to light winds and clear skies. Fog formation is probable in the deeper river valleys but impacts are not currently expected at the TAF sites.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.