textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Following widespread rainfall, dense fog is forecast to develop early this morning, especially for northern sections of eastern KY. - A significant warming trend begins today. Temperatures should reach the 60s area-wide by Tuesday afternoon and could hit the lower 70s in many areas by Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 257 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

Tuesday, high pressure exits to the east, while a stationary front remains draped northwest of the area, across the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Cloudy conditions can be expected under light southerly winds. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 60s across the area during the afternoon, before falling into the upper 40s to low 50s at night.

While this is going on, a surface low is progressing eastward out of the Montana/South Dakota area. By Wednesday morning, this surface low will be over the Upper Midwest, with a warm front extending east across the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic, and a trailing cold front over the Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains. Across Eastern Kentucky, a passing shower or two will be possible across the Bluegrass, and north of the I-64 corridor. Breezy southwest winds will also be probable. GFS BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum transfer continues to reach 25 to 30 kts. LREF Grand Ensemble probabilties of seeing wind gusts of 30 kts (35 mph) have trended down slightly over the last 2 model runs, but range from 50-60% near the Bluegrass area (near Lexington), to 35-40% generally elsewhere. The signal certainly remains present for breezy afternoon wind gusts Wednesday. Temperatures generally remain in the mid 60s across the area during the afternoon, before dipping into the low to mid 50s at night.

Wednesday evening, the above systems cold front approaches. Most members of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles have some marginal CAPE (under 500 J/kg) associated with the systems cold frontal passage. This is also supported in BUFKIT sounding profiles showing skinny CAPE at various locations across Eastern Kentucky for the pre-dawn hours Thursday. The probability of thunder remains between 15 and 20 percent. A slight chance of a thunderstorm remains, though nothing severe is expected at this time. Temperatures warm into the upper 60s to low 70s across the area under south to southwest winds.

Residual trough energy ejects east-northeast later, supporting secondary cyclogenesis and another chance of thunderstorms with the system's trailing cold front passing through Thursday night/Friday. Area-wide rainfall expected. Temperatures fall into the low to mid 50s at night.

Models and ensembles begin to spread beyond Thursday, however area- wide showers look to remain through Saturday with cooler temperatures returning. Highs Friday in the low to upper 60s cool into the low to upper 50s on Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST MON FEB 15 2026

High pressure builds in tonight as the low pressure system and upper disturbance that brought rain to the region both depart. However, as deeper moisture also departs and clearing or partial clearing occurs, low level moisture will remain following rainfall. Winds will be light and this pattern is favorable for continued low stratus and largely sub MVFR ceilings and fog formation during the first 6 hours of the period. Guidance points toward IFR to below airport min reductions in fog developing through 12Z especially in the more northern locations such as KIOB and KSYM, though this should reach as far south as KJKL and KSJS by the 10Z to 12Z timeframe. This fog and low stratus should gradually lift between 12Z and 18Z with associated gradual improvements into MVFR and eventually VFR for all areas by 18Z and after. Once VFR develops, it should persist through the end of the period. Winds will be generally light and variable through the end the period as well.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-088-104-106>120.