textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintery mix of precipitation types is expected to spread north across the area this morning, but accumulations are forecast to be light and limited to areas north of I-64. - A warming trend is expected throughout the week, with highs likely reaching 20 to 25 degrees above normal on average during the Wednesday through next weekend timeframe.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 730 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026

A quasi stationary baroclinic zone will extend from the mid Atlantic across parts of the mid MS Valley to central and southern Plains as the period begins, oscillating as far north as the southern Great Lakes and central Plains through late week as individual shortwaves interact with it. Initially quasi zonal flow progresses to a more amplified by later Wednesday into next weekend with ridging from the Gulf and western Atlantic into the Southeast and a trough from Central Canada into the Southwest Conus, where the south end may cutoff and possibly retrograde to the Baja for further west. The region will remain well into the warm sector and very mild weather will result for early March in southerly flow.

A shortwave trough moving near the International border and northern Plains should result in a corresponding sfc low that tracks from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes to mid Atlantic states may finally send the frontal zone southeast nearer to the Commonwealth and the OH Valley to end the weekend. More northern locations will be nearer to the frontal zone and could experience showers at times and if instability is sufficient some thunder cold occur in some areas between Thursday and Saturday. A more potential disturbance moving through the flow may lead to a better chance for showers at some point later Friday night and Saturday evening. AI convective guidance from GEFS and EC to some degree suggest a stronger storm or two could occur around the Saturday timeframe. The possible approaching front could also lead to a peak in shower chances Sunday and again depending on instability and timing thunder cannot be completely ruled out.

As for changes from the NBM deterministic guidance, bufkit momentum transfer from the GFS combined with the forecast pressure gradient on both Wednesday and Thursday supported increasing sustained winds and gusts on both days in the warm sector. With these winds taking on a downslope component locations downwind of the VA border counties (Pine and Black Mountains) will likely be a few degrees warmer for highs both days compared to NBM deterministic guidance.

A warming trend continues into the long term period and highs likely reach 20 to 25 degrees above normal on average during the Wednesday through next weekend period. Some locations, especially valleys could reach the 80s Friday and Saturday per NBM probabilities and deterministic guidance. Lows will also be very mild and a moderate ridge/valley split could occur on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. These nights could also experience river valley fog, but confidence was not high enough to include at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period and will last through most of the night. Precipitation should develop eastward into the area around dawn and persist into the day. It is expected to initially be a mix of snow and freezing rain over the northern portion of the forecast area, and rain in the south. Even in the north, precipitation will go over to rain as temperatures warm during the morning. Conditions will deteriorate as the precipitation arrives, with generally IFR or low end MVFR expected. Some improvement back to VFR is possible in the afternoon, especially in the southern portion of the forecast area.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for KYZ044- 051-052-104.