textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers will exit by mid-morning, giving way to clearing skies and a cooler afternoon. Patchy frost is possible tonight as temperatures drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s.

- A critically dry air mass will settle over the region, dropping afternoon humidity levels into the 10 to 20 percent range on Tuesday, and still sub-30 percent for most areas on Wednesday.

- Temperatures will soar 20 degrees above normal on Thursday. A strong cold front will then bring widespread rain and a chance of thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the front this weekend, bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Friday and Saturday nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026

The cold front and its associated line of weakening showers should depart fully into Virginia by 7 AM. In the wake of the front, look for temperatures falling into the 50s southeast and 40s northwest on a stiff northerly breeze. Low clouds may produce some lingering spotty light rain or drizzle through mid-morning, especially along the Pottsville Escarpment and over the higher elevations adjacent to the KY-VA border.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026

The period begins with an upper level ridge centered over the southwest Conus to northwest Mexico that extends north into sections of the western Conus while down stream of this an upper level trough is progged to extend from eastern Canada into the eastern Conus. Meanwhile, west of the western Conus ridging, an upper level low and associated trough is expected to be nearing the BC coast into the Pacific Northwest. At the sfc, a ridge of high pressure anticipated to be centered east of the Delmarva should extend south to the Carolinas and also to portions of the Great Lakes and OH Valley. Elsewhere, a frontal zone is expected to initially extend from north of the Bahamas across the FL peninsula and the northeastern Gulf into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a northern stream cold front should be sagging across the Northern Great Lakes to the SD vicinity and then into sections of WY and MT to BC.

Tuesday night to Wednesday night, the axis of the trough extending from Canada into the eastern Conus should shift east and northeast into the Northeast to east of the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, the guidance consensus is for the northern Mexico to western Conus ridge to flatten as multiple impulses/shortwaves move from the Pacific across the Northwest Conus to Northern Rockies and east near the US/Canadian border. This ridge should build into the central and southern plains to western Gulf and lower MS Valley. Eastern KY should remain in WNW to NW flow aloft with a shortwave potentially arriving into the Lower to Middle OH Valley Wednesday night while overall 500 mb height tendencies are rises. Given recent dryness and recent trends along with rainfall from the ongoing system to be light for most areas, opted to go more pessimistic with dewpoints for Wednesday than the NBM deterministic. Low level winds in the southeast should have a downslope component at least initially supporting hedging dewpoints more toward the drier end of guidance in support of continued prescribed/controlled burning operations across eastern KY. These factors under departing sfc high pressure should result in continued dry weather and potentially sub 30 percent, if not sub 25 percent rh in some cases Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, the approaching shortwave and the boundary initially south of the area returning as a warm front into the OH Valley could result in a few showers Wednesday night.

Thursday to Friday night, the shortwave trough that per guidance consensus is expected to be nearing the region late Wed night to early should cross the area Thu morning into early Thu afternoon. At the same time, weakening upper ridging should build further east across the Gulf and portions of the southeast Conus and guidance generally has the ridging also building back into the western Conus. Downstream a shortwave trough/impulse is progged to move near the US/Canadian border and across the Great Lakes to St. Lawrence Valley and to the Northeast Thu to Thu night. Overall, the pattern amplifies again in general with the ridging persisting from northern Mexico/Four Corners region north across the western Conus to Canada and also east across the Gulf while troughing moves from the Great Lakes and upper to mid MS Valley into the eastern Conus. The axis of this trough would cross eastern KY later Fri to Fri night. Meanwhile the sfc low associated with the warm front lifting into eastern KY late Wed night to near dawn on Thu treks from the central Conus toward the Great Lakes, the warm front lifts north and northeast of eastern KY on Thursday. In the warm sector on Thursday, temperatures should climb to 20 or more degrees above normal. Moisture and instability across eastern KY should remain limited for Thursday with MUCAPE per ENS mean on the order of 500 J/kg or less. 12Z ENS mean has bulk shear climbing to around 35 to 45KT by late Thu evening. However, as the cold front associated with the developing trough into the eastern Conus drops into the OH Valley Thu night and across eastern KY into the day on Fri combined with some 500 mb height falls, convection will become more probable including the potential for some thunder. Some recent GEFS and/or ENS based AI guidance has had probabilities indicating the possibility of strong to severe storms in the OH Valley though these have remained centered north of eastern KY in general. If any stronger storms were to occur Thu evening/night it would be more probable for those to be north of the Mtn Pkwy if not north of I-64. The boundary should drop south and southeast of eastern KY Fri evening/night in advance of the trough axis. Temperatures by dawn on Saturday should fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s range behind the boundary. If sufficient moisture lingers, some snow could mix with in any lingering rain showers in the higher terrain nearer to the VA border late Fri night.

Saturday to Sunday, Behind the trough axis, sfc high pressure builds from the Central Conus into the OH Valley to Appalachian region while WSW to NW flow aloft persists. The airmass per 00Z operational GFS and ECMWF should have 1000-500 mb layer rh dropping to about the 15 to 32 percent range which if realized would result in rather quick drying and clearing on Saturday morning. The airmass will also be colder and temperatures should drop to near if not a few degrees below normal for highs on Saturday. The current forecast has sub 30 percent min rh across eastern KY for Saturday afternoon with some areas possibly sub 20 percent. The dry airmass should support cold overnight lows Saturday night that would likely be lower at least in valleys compared to the NBM deterministic values and sub freezing lows are probable for those areas. High pressure is currently progged to shift east on Sunday and return flow should result in highs a few degrees above normal to end next weekend. Overall, the Saturday to Sunday period should feature precipitation free weather.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026

Widespread IFR or worse ceilings were noted at the start of the TAF period. However, drier air will filter in on northerly flow, causing a slow improvement to VFR by early to mid afternoon. Winds will be north northwesterly at 8 to 13 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible through the afternoon before slackening this evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.