textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist through Saturday.

- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new work week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026

The extended forecast period opens Saturday morning with an expansive upper-level ridge across the eastern CONUS and a digging trough along the West Coast. At the surface, a weak boundary will be draped near or just south of the area early Saturday morning before quickly lifting back northward across eastern Kentucky as a warm front during the day. Low-level theta-e advection will allow Saturday afternoon temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Despite increasing cloud cover, pleasant conditions will persist for trick-or-treaters Saturday evening, with temperatures gradually cooling through the 60s after sunset and into the upper 50s closer to midnight under light easterly winds. Temperatures look to cool further into the low to mid 50s by Sunday morning.

Moisture will steadily advect into the Ohio Valley heading into Sunday ahead of the developing Plains system, with PWATs climbing toward 1.00 inch, or around the 80th to 85th climatological percentile. While rain chances will gradually increase from southwest to northeast through the day as isentropic ascent deepens aloft, southeasterly downslope flow may dry out low levels across our eastern zones, which could result in a sharp QPF gradient. If this occurs, measurable rainfall would remain light and favored primarily across western portions of the forecast area, with many eastern valleys receiving little to no accumulation. Both the 12Z NAM and GFS feature a sharp cutoff right over the forecast area, while the ECMWF remains even drier. Confidence in rainfall amounts remains low as a result. Furthermore, despite notable model spread regarding daytime temperatures, with an 8 to 10 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles, southeasterly winds favoring downslope warming off the higher terrain support the NBM solution of afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Eastern Kentucky will remain embedded within the warm sector on Monday as broad southwesterly flow continues aloft ahead of the deepening Plains system. With Sunday's lead impulse departing and the primary trough still well to our west, lingering isolated to widely scattered showers should wrap up by Monday afternoon. Modest warm-air advection beneath persistent cloud cover will support Monday afternoon temperatures topping out near 70 degrees, followed by a brief dry lull lasting through most of Tuesday.

Rain chances ramp back up later Tuesday as deep Gulf moisture surges northward into the Ohio Valley ahead of the approaching surface cold front. Continued warm-air advection will support unseasonably warm conditions, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 70s on both Tuesday and Wednesday (10 to 15 degrees above normal). While the core of a potent 50 to 60 kt southerly Low-Level Jet remains displaced to our west initially - likely not crossing eastern Kentucky until Wednesday evening - this strengthening low-level wind field should efficiently transport rich moisture into the region well ahead of the boundary, potentially setting the stage for a widespread soaking rain Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 445 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2026

VFR conditions were present area wide at TAF issuance, and, aside from river valley fog late tonight and early Friday, will prevail through the period. The fog will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, but should not affect TAF sites. Winds will be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.