textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A lingering trough brings rounds of showers and storms through Wednesday, with isolated flash flooding possible.

- Cooler, drier air arrives Thursday and continues into early next week, allowing for daytime highs mainly in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 544 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026

The long-term period opens Wednesday evening with a closed ~581 dam low near Cincinnati, OH, and a closed ~587 dam upper-level high north of Lake Superior. These will be mirrored at the surface by a broad high pressure area over eastern Canada and the Northeast, while lee-side troughing lingers over the western foothills of the central and southern Appalachians.

At the start of the period, convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of that lee-side trough over portions of eastern Kentucky, but should wane Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper-level low drifts southeast toward the Carolinas. By Friday, the upper-level low will be supporting a strong autumn coastal low riding up the East Coast, while the aforementioned surface high will have expanded southwestward over the Great Lakes, placing the Ohio Valley under a drying northeasterly flow. The pattern remains fairly benign for us heading through the weekend-- the coastal low becomes vertically stacked off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coast while the upper-level ridge to our north weakens and merges with ridging over the central CONUS. The attendant Canadian surface high weakens, becomes more amorphous, and modifies at more southerly latitudes.

Sensible weather impacts will feature waning shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday night, leaving just a few stray showers for Thursday. Clouds decrease with time, yielding mostly clear to partly cloudy skies Thursday night through Monday, with an exception being routine late night/morning fog through favored sheltered river valleys. The most notable sensible change will be temperatures though: Highs will range through the 70s in most places on Thursday, and in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Friday and Saturday. Nighttime lows will turn cool, even a bit chilly, starting off in the 50s on Wednesday night and settling deep into the 40s by Friday and Saturday nights -- perhaps nearing 40F in the coldest hollows. A warming trend does ensue by early next week with daytime highs recovering into the mid 70s to low 80s by Monday and lows moderating back closer to 50F.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026

A mixture of LIFR to VFR conditions are noted across eastern Kentucky at the 06Z TAF issuance. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a potent cold front is slowly exiting into Virginia. Behind that activity, widespread low stratus and fog predominates. Some improvement in the ceilings is expected later this morning and afternoon to high-end MVFR/low-end VFR. Showers and a few thunderstorms could linger near the KY-VA border through the day but should largely stay east of TAF sites. Winds will be variable to north around 5 kts or less.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.