textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend continues through Sunday, with highs returning to near to a few degrees above normal.

- Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase to end the weekend, followed by additional chances at midweek.

- Frost is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning in deeper valleys and hollows - mainly away from mainstem rivers.

UPDATE

Issued at 1220 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026

Incorporated the latest observational data from around the area to update the diurnal curve. A slightly cooler start to the day has been noted, from lingering cloud cover. Some light sprinkles/drizzle may occur under these clouds and any showers should be light in nature. The forecast remains on track. No substantial changes were made.

UPDATE Issued at 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026

Weak radar returns associated with passing disturbance are working across parts of central KY and western portions of the area. Sprinkles were reaching the ground from these per upstream obs at LEX and others. The previous pops had this scenario handled. Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026

The period begins Monday morning with a secondary cold front accompanied by showers exiting south and east as a shortwave trough moves across the area within an overall broad longwave trough.

A cooler and drier air mass moves into the region from the north as high pressure builds in for the remainder of the daytime hours Monday. Though models have trended slightly warmer than 24 hours, Monday looks to be on the cool side with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Monday night is still looking rather chilly for mid-May as surface pressure settles in over Ohio. Big questions remain as to how much low-level dry air can move into the area and whether winds fully decouple near ridgetop level. A slightly drier air mass with full decoupling will introduce the possibility of patchy frost in the outlying hollows away from mainstem streams and rivers, which are more likely to see the typical fog in such setups.

A modest warm-up is expected Tuesday as shortwave ridging moves overhead in northwesterly flow aloft, but unsettled weather returns Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Instability will be rapidly diminishing as this system moves through, so while thunder chances are in the forecast currently, would not be surprised to see this reduced to just showers in future forecasts.

After another brief modest cooldown Thursday, heights/thicknesses rise significantly Friday into Saturday, signaling a stronger warm- up into next weekend. Though there are significant model discrepancies yielding low confidence in the forecast details by this time, low-end PoPs around 10 to 15 percent are indicated by the NBM as models hint at a potential disturbance and/or front near the area with some potential instability.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026

A mix of mid and high level clouds have led to some spots seeing MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable or from the southwest through 14-15Z before becoming more westerly at 10KT or less through the last few hours of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.