textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Humid and often wet weather will last through mid week.

- Rain should become less prevalent late in the week as drier air arrives from the north.

UPDATE

Issued at 130 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as higher PoPs continue to creep north from Tennessee. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Clouds are thickening late this evening across eastern Kentucky and light showers are beginning to lift back northward over the Cumberland River Basin. The rainfall will continue to increase in coverage and slowly lift north but likely not reach the Mountain Parkway until after 4 AM. No substantive changes were made to the overnight forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 658 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Though it's currently quiet across Eastern Kentucky, clouds will thicken and showers will increase from south to north this evening and overnight as a frontal boundary wavers back to the north. Most of the rain should be light to briefly moderate and any risk of lightning will probably hold off until closer to morning. The forecast only needs some minor adjustments to bring hourly T/Td/PoPs in line with the recent observations.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 235 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

A stationary front will be situated just north and west of the area to begin the long-term period Wednesday, with Eastern Kentucky entrenched within the muggy warm sector to its southeast. A shortwave will cross the area during the day Wednesday within southwesterly mid-level flow, with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity within an environment characterized by PWs around 1.8" and on top of saturated soils, which will raise the possibility of at least isolated excessive rainfall impacts.

The stationary front moves south through the area as a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday as southwesterly mid-level flow turns northerly for the second half of the week. A series of upper troughs then dig south from eastern Canada through the Mid- Atlantic to end the week into early next week. Big question mark for Thursday and Friday is whether a wave within more westerly flow aloft ahead of a deep closed low traversing the New England region is able to ride along the stationary front to our south and bring rain/showers to southern parts of the forecast area. At this time, there is enough uncertainty to warrant low-end PoPs across much of the forecast area, especially south of I-64 from Thursday night through Sunday, with high enough confidence to take out rain chances from roughly I-64 and points north as surface high pressure should be close enough to suppress rain chance south. By Sunday night, it appears all areas should be free of any significant PoPs as surface high pressure prevails across the Ohio River Valley.

Temperatures will remain mild through the period, with highs and lows near normal overall (mid to upper 70s for highs, upper 50s for lows) as southwesterly flow becomes northerly, and humid and cloudy conditions with rain chances transition to a cooler and drier regime.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

VFR conditions were still holding for all the TAF terminals at the start of the forecast period. However conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR over the next few hours from south to north and then persist with such restrictions through at least the first part of the day as a frontal boundary lifts across the area with renewed showers, low clouds, and areas of fog. The activity will become more scattered and convective during the afternoon and evening hours with thunderstorm chances depicted via PROB30s in the TAFs at all sites. Winds will remain light and variable through the period - away from any thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.