textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing winds just above the surface are expected by late this evening into early Thursday. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are probable and could be stronger near and north of I-64.

- Storm chances return tonight to Thursday night. Some storms could approach severe limits late tonight north of the Mtn Pkwy, and across all of eastern KY on Thursday. - The primary threat from storms late tonight and Thursday will be damaging wind gusts. Isolated flash flooding is also possible should locations receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 755 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

Minor adjustments were made based on recent observations and trends. Lingering valley fog in the south should dissipate over the next hour. Some passing clouds between 4.5 and 6kft agl are anticipated this morning and fair weather cumulus may also develop. Temperatures will moderate further compared to today.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 500 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

The threat for a strong storm of two will linger through around sunset in the southern parts of the area with training of convection and locally heavy totals perhaps more of a concern ahead of the cold front gradually dropping south across eastern KY. This boundary should drop south of eastern KY Thursday night with the threat of convection waning toward dawn if not before as the shortwave trough move from the lower to mid OH Valley and into the central Appalachians.

Broad troughing lingers south form Canada into parts of the Great Lakes and northeast to end the week with not much change in 500 mb heights across eastern KY. Sfc high pressure should build into the Lower OH Valley from the Central Conus Fri into Friday night before the high shifts across and eventually east of eastern KY by late Saturday. By Saturday, in advance of a shortwave trough moving from the western Conus across the Rockies and into the Central Conus, an area of low pressure should begin to organize over parts of the High Plains/Central Plains and with the sfc high departing the front that will have stalled south of the area should begin to lift back north toward the OH Valley as a warm front to end the weekend. At the same time, the shortwave trough is progged to trek toward or into the Great Lakes and the OH Valley.

Model differences in timing and details and the potential intensity of convection exist by Sunday, but the overall theme is a return to unsettled weather is probable to end the weekend. Either way, the threat for unsettled weather would continue into early next week as the sfc low moves from the Central Conus/Plains and near or south of the Southern Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night and then into the mid Atlantic/Northeast through Monday. A trailing cold front would eventually cross eastern KY reducing chances, but there is uncertainty in the timing. Near and ahead of the front, chances for showers/storms would peak. The GFS operational run is generally further south and faster with this low track to end the weekend with a quicker arriving cold front while the ECMWF operational runs are slower with the track over or nearer to the Southern Great Lakes with the cold front crossing the area up to 18 to 24 hours later. Guidance generally is in agreement for a min in shower chances that are generally below climatology to end the period. Also of note, machine learning/AI convective guidance to end the weekend early next week varies with the EC based guidance having some lower end probabilities for severe storms and GEFS based guidance more suppressed to the southeast with probs.

At this point, blended model guidance has temperatures a couple of degrees below normal to normal behind the front Friday into Saturday when high pressure will gradually build across the area to begin the weekend. Temperatures would then trend milder behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front early next week. Temperatures are forecast to drop back slightly behind the front during the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

VFR conditions were reported to the TAF sites at issuance time period with a clouds in the 4.5 to 6kft agl range mainly in the north. Valley fog is evident on satellite imagery in some of the south, but the TAF sites are not affected. This fog should lift and dissipate through around 13Z. Meanwhile, a cold front has pretty much stalled out near the OH River early in the period and will lift back north as a warm front as low pressure moves from the Plains tracks across sections of the midwest and across the western and into the central Great Lakes during the TAF period with strong to severe convection likely to develop in the midwest this convection may evolve into a line that may reach areas north of the Mtn Pkwy including KIOB and KSYM between 06Z and 12Z. A PROB30 group was included for that potential at both locations at this point. Winds will initially be light and variable, before picking up into the 7 to 14KT range after about 15Z with some gusts into the 20 to 25KT range. Winds should continue to be stronger and gustier than typical at night late in the period with winds and gusts likely increasing during the last 12 hours of the period as winds aloft ahead of the low pressure system also increase. Gusts during that time could reach the 20 to 30KT range at times. The increasing winds aloft could also result in a LLWS threat for some areas late.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.