textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights is expected for the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure pushing south into southeastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and clear the skies from northwest to southeast with dry air infiltrating from the north. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 60s across the area with low 70s reported at Somerset. Meanwhile, amid light northerly winds, dewpoints vary from the upper 40s north to the low 60s in the south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as tinkering with the fog depiction and development later tonight where lower dewpoint depressions and clear skies will allow for it. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 103 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026

As the long term period opens, a vertically stacked low will be located over eastern Quebec, with broad troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Farther west, midlevel ridging will be centered over the western CONUS. Locally, eastern Kentucky will find itself in a region of inconsequential quasi zonal flow aloft initially, although by Wednesday, troughing will deepen as an additional closed upper level low pushes southeast through Ontario. Flow aloft will briefly become more northwesterly before the closed Canadian low lifts back northeast, with quasi zonal flow aloft persisting through the end of the work week. By the end of the forecast period, ridging does look to build in more from the east. Perhaps more interestingly, there is some signal that a disturbance may follow the western periphery of this ridge into Kentucky this weekend, although uncertainty remains high this far out.

At the surface, high pressure over southwestern Pennsylvania will keep winds easterly to east northeasterly on Tuesday, maintaining a relatively dry air mass (with dewpoints generally in the 40s across the forecast area). It will feel pleasant, too, with plenty of sunshine and highs ranging from the low to upper 70s roughly from the north to the south. Ideal conditions for radiational cooling will allow for a ridge valley split overnight, with valley temperatures generally falling into the low 40s. Then, as the surface high translates eastward, a new area of high pressure will build to the southwest near the Ozarks, with winds becoming more southwesterly by Wednesday. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, and dewpoints will also tick up a few degrees; even so, by the time that a cold front attempts to approach the area Thursday, atmospheric moisture will be low enough to keep the frontal passage dry. Behind the front, little change in sensible weather is expected, with the biggest pattern shift being a day or so of northerly winds before high pressure again builds in east of the forecast area and winds become more easterly. Regardless, temperatures will still remain above average for this time of year, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

The next chance for rain looks to arrive this weekend, with the most recent model guidance suggesting that a disturbance could track north towards Kentucky around this time, following the edge of the building ridge over the Atlantic Coast. Exact details are sparse at this point, but NBM output suggests chance PoPs by Sunday, and this is corroborated by a signal for notable rain in ensemble guidance; LREF QPF shows around a 50% chance of at least half an inch of rain in our southern counties on Sunday, around the time that anomalous moisture returns to the area (with LREF mean PW values in the 70th to 80th percentile compared to climatology). Of course, this comes with the caveat that these forecast details may change with time, especially this far out.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026

Conditions at the start of the period were VFR over roughly the northwest 2/3rds of the JKL forecast area, and MVFR or worse (due mainly to ceilings) over the southeast portion of the forecast area. The sub-VFR conditions were eroding southeastward, and VFR conditions are expected to progress to the VA border through the next few hours. This may allow for a brief time of VFR conditions area-wide before valley fog starts to develop. The fog should show up first this evening in southeast Kentucky, where the low clouds take longest to breakup this evening. The low visibilities will then likely develop northwestward with time bringing localized IFR or worse conditions. The most likely TAF sites to be affected by dawn are KSJS and KSME/KLOZ. The fog will dissipate on Monday morning, leaving VFR conditions through Monday evening and beyond. Winds will be less than 10 kts through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.