textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front could produce multiple rounds of thunderstorms on Tuesday into Tuesday night.

- There is a threat for severe weather on Tuesday, including damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

- Torrential rainfall from persistent thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding.

- Mainly dry weather is expected from Wednesday night to Friday, with temperatures averaging about 5 degrees below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 921 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026

Only very isolated showers remain, and the POP was updated for the latest trends. Remnant high clouds from earlier thunderstorms continue to stream over the area, and the amount of clouds in the forecast has been raised for this evening.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 547 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026

The models are in good agreement with an amplified and stagnant long wave pattern to rule over the CONUS through early next week. The center of a seasonably strong upper level ridge will meander from the southern Plains to the Four Corners region, while broader troughing modulates east of the Mississippi River. This will result in a reprieve from the humidity across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys through the middle of the week. Humidity will be on the increase once again across the region by this weekend and into early next week.

On Wednesday, a surface cold front will be exiting into Tennessee, with enough low level moisture lingering to allow for some renewed convection, especially across far southeastern Kentucky. High pressure builds in more decisively Wednesday night, with welcomed northeasterly low level winds ushering in much lower dew points than we have seen lately. Some fog will likely occur following the multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms seen across the area, although the pressure gradient may limit this coverage. Drier and cooler weather will be in full swing on Thursday.

As troughing sharpens back up over the Ohio Valley, bouts of short wave energy will be moving southeast within the established northwesterly flow aloft. Model details regarding timing are lower confidence this far out, but rain chances will return as some moderate moisture advection occurs in the low levels, with LREF mean PWATs of 1.4 to 1.5 inches nosing back into southeastern portions of the Commonwealth by Friday. PoPs look to peak Friday night into Saturday, with somewhat better model agreement on increased mid and upper level forcing in place. For the rest of the weekend and early next week, despite the favorable stormier track that northwest flow can mean aloft, mean PWATS right now remain in the 50th to 75th percentile, so only slight to chance PoPs are in the forecast for Sunday through Monday.

Highs will retreat to the upper 70s to lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday, before gradually warming to the mid to upper 80s by Monday. Overnight lows will moderate from the upper 50s and low 60s mid-week, to the upper 60s and around 70 by early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 921 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026

Very isolated showers lingered at the start of the period. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions were present. The main potential for isolated showers/thunderstorms through the night will be near the VA border. Outside of precipitation, mainly VFR conditions should persist. More thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday into Tuesday night, with localized IFR or worse conditions. However, there is low confidence in the timing. The most favorable time is in the afternoon and early evening, and TEMPO groups have been used in TAFS during that time. Broad PROB30 groups were used on either side of the TEMPO groups. Some of the thunderstorms on Tuesday into Tuesday evening could produce strong winds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.