textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring dry and seasonally cool early autumn weather into early next week.

- Chances for showers could return by the second half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. The lower clouds continue to slowly erode. These very minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure north of the area attempting to control the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and break up the lower clouds. Look for skies to continue to clear allowing for some valley fog development after midnight. Currently, temperatures are running in the low 60s north to the upper 60s in the south. Meanwhile, amid northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints range from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s in the far south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids while tweaking the fog formation. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 306 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026

The long term period will be largely characterized by pleasant weather. On Saturday morning, a deep vertically stacked low will be located off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, a highly amplified midlevel ridge will be centered over the Mississippi Valley, with a corresponding surface high in the Great Lakes region. This pattern will remain stagnant until early next week; then, the aforementioned low will finally lift north into Canada, allowing the ridge to flatten somewhat and build east. Accordingly, the surface high will shift east of the forecast area, opening the door for the next system to approach near the middle of next week.

With a surface high to the northwest of the forecast area, winds will be largely northeasterly through early next week. This will keep weather cool and dry, with highs generally ranging from the low to mid 70s across the area through Monday. The air will feel dry too, with dewpoints remaining in the 40s and 50s. Bone dry atmospheric profiles will also support plentiful sunshine. Each night, clear skies and a weak pressure gradient will allow ridge valley splits to develop, with COOP MOS guidance suggesting that the most sheltered hollows could see temperatures in the low 40s early Sunday and Monday morning. A brief look into this years temperature records shows these lows will be the coldest eastern Kentucky has experienced since mid May!

Unfortunately for fall lovers, temperatures will trend warmer by Tuesday as the ridge expands towards our area. Highs may climb into the 80s in the warmest locations, although deterministic guidance still shows some spread (owing to disagreements regarding the strength and positioning of the ridge at this time). Corresponding with the breakdown of this blocking pattern, the eastward progression of the surface high will also allow winds to become increasingly southwesterly, bringing warm and moist air back into the forecast area. Highs in the 80s will be likely across much of the forecast area on Wednesday, and with dewpoints climbing into the 60s, it will feel more humid. This increasing moisture, in tandem with an approaching trough, will enable rain chances to finally return to the forecast on Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

Patches of stratus and stratocu lingered across parts of the north and southwest at issuance time. Extensive valley fog had formed in the Big Sandy region and was starting to form in the forks of the KY and the headwaters of the Cumberland Valley. As the period began, MVFR was observed at KLOZ and some areas near the TN and VA borders in the stratocu areas. As a much drier airmass advects in form the north and northeast, a trend to VFR ceilings is anticipated. The exception is valley fog that among the TAF sites should mainly affect KSJS after about 10Z, leading to MVFR to IFR for a few hours. Valley locations should in some cases experience LIFR to VLIFR. Fog should lift and dissipate through the 13Z to 14Z timeframe giving way to VFR for the duration of the period at the TAF sites. Some valleys could experience fog developing again by around 04Z Sat. Winds will average around 5KT or be light and variable during the first 8 hours of the period, before increasing to 5 to 10KT from the northeast to north. Winds should again slacken back to light and variable to end the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.