textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend takes hold this week, with afternoon highs returning to the upper 80s to lower 90s by Wednesday.

- Mainly dry weather continues through Thursday, with only a slight chance for an isolated afternoon storm in the far southern counties.

- A cold front approaching the Ohio Valley will bring increased shower and storm chances Friday through the weekend, returning temperatures to near normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 945 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026

This morning's satellite imagery reveals a picturesque summertime scene across Eastern Kentucky. Fog has lifted out of the area's river valleys and dissipated, and diurnal warming processes are in full swing, especially in the Bluegrass. Northwestern portions of the forecast area are already under the influence of a broad surface high pressure system, leaving them mostly sunny and dry. Low pressure continues to spin further to the south in the Tennessee River Valley, which has allowed some high cirrus-type clouds to stream across our southern counties. These areas are progged to remain slightly cooler today, as those clouds and a more extensive diurnal cumulus field could lead to relatively filtered heating in areas along the TN state line. Still expect afternoon MaxTs to rebound into the mid/upper 80s area-wide though, as the influence of that sfc high and the related ridging aloft will only increase through mid-week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 333 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026

The period is expected to begin with an enlongated 595 dm 500 mb upper level ridge axis extending from off the VA and NC coast northwest across WV to sections of the Plains/SD and then southwest into parts of the Great Basin/SW Conus. Well to the north of eastern KY, an upper level low should be centered over Ontario with a shortwave rotating from Hudson Bay to the James Bay At the same time, guidance has an upper level low centered in western TX at that point with a rather moist airmass lingering across much of the southeast to central Appalachians. An upper low is progged to be nearing the Pacific northwest as well. At the surface, a weak rather diffuse boundary, may initially be in place from the coast of the Carolinas across sections of the southern Appalachians to OK with sfc high pressure centered over the eastern KY to southern WV vicinity.

Wednesday night to Thursday night, the upper level ridge is progged to weaken and become centered in the Bermuda vicinity as the shortwave trough initially in Canada rotates to the St Lawrence Valley/Northeast and the upper low meanders to the Maritimes vicinity. Meanwhile guidance suggests a weak 500 mb upper low/trough may develop in the southern Appalachians or Southeast. This could lead to some diurnally driven convection for areas generally near or west of the I-75 corridor closer to this system and where deeper moisture should be focused. Seasonably warm temperatures should also prevail with increasingly warmer overnight temperatures.

Friday to Saturday night, the upper low is progged to remain over eastern sections of Canada/Maritimes vicinity with upper level ridging becoming centered east of Bermuda in the Atlantic and sections of the Rockies/Plains. The general guidance consensus is for an upper level trough to develop from eastern Canada across the eastern Great Lakes to the Appalachians. There remains some differences in the timing and evolution of this. As this trough begins to take shape a sfc cold front should drop south of the Great Lakes and toward the Lower OH Valley region to begin the weekend. A warm and moist airmass is progged to remain to its south. Passing disturbances and the front could result in convection at any point though diurnal peaks Friday and Saturday afternoon are probable. With more in the way of convection and cloud cover each day, high temperatures should fall back to mid July normals.

Sunday and Monday, upper level troughing is progged to remain from eastern Canada across portions of the Great Lakes and into the OH Valley region while upper level ridging remains centered in the Rockies/CO vicinity and extends across parts of the western Conus and into the Southern Plains vicinity. The sfc cold front may drop south of eastern KY to end the weekend and begin next week. This should result in greater chances for convection peaking near the diurnal cycle on Sunday, though unsettled weather should linger into Monday. High temperatures should be a couple of degrees below normal to begin next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026

VFR conditions are observed across the terminals this afternoon, with a diurnal cu field currently draped across southern Kentucky. Southwestern terminals could see deeper cu and a stray shower or two this evening, but rain chances were not high enough to explicitly mention this in the 18z TAFs. Confidence is higher in the formation of river valley fog tonight, and TEMPOs have been introduced at KSME and KLOZ for potential vsby reductions between 08z and 12z. LAMP and BUFKIT guidance bolsters confidence in fog formation at these two terminals, but it cannot be ruled out elsewhere, especially later in the morning as fog lifts towards the ridgetop terminals after sunrise. The forecast looks similar tomorrow, with fog mixing out in the morning and giving way to another diurnal cu field (albeit with less spatial coverage). Expect light and variable sustained winds through the period, with the occasional wind gust up to 15 knots during peak diurnal mixing.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.