textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent through early Sunday, followed by much lower probabilities during most of the work week. Heavy rain may lead to flash flooding.

- Heat and humidity will become oppressive during the new week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 353 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

The extended period opens Monday morning with the area transitioning from a fairly active pattern, into a quiet yet hot one through next week. Analyzing modeled 500-mb heights, high pressure is positioned over the Tennessee Valley, with the ridge axis extending further north, through the Upper Great Lakes and into Southern Ontario. Farther upstream to the west, a large scale trough positioned over the Great Basin, features upper level disturbance over the Northern Rockies.

Across Eastern Kentucky, isolated to scattered storm activity may last through Monday afternoon, as a stationary front just north of the forecast area, retrogrades back west as a cold front from being on the lee side of the ridge axis. These generally remain under a 25% of occurrence, located in the Upper Cumberland or southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins. With high pressure near or over Kentucky, storm chances remain very isolated Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered storm chances return towards the end of the week (Thursday and beyond), with a shortwave modeled to eject out of the western trough towards the Ohio Valley. The result will be the ridge flattening, leaving Eastern Kentucky more susceptible to additional storm activity. The return of active weather looks plausible heading into the nations 250th anniversary of independence.

With abundant clearing, light winds, and little forcing across the area, patchy areas of river valley fog is expected to develop Monday evening.

Temperatures will generally warm into the low to mid 90s during the afternoons and cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s at night through the extended period. Models depict dewpoints remaining elevated in the upper 60s to mid 70s next week, leading to hot and muggy conditions. Heat indices of 100-105F remain possible Monday trough Friday next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

While VFR conditions are ongoing at the start of the TAF period, a large cluster of showers and thunderstorms is approaching from Central Kentucky and expected to bring MVFR or worse conditions through much of the overnight, especially at terminals south of the Mountain Parkway. Gradual improvement in the conditions are expected during the day on Sunday, though shower and thunderstorm chances will linger, especially closer to the KY/TN border and KY/VA border.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ044-050>052-059- 060-104-106.

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ058-068-069-079-080- 083>088-107>120.