textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected from today through Friday. Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a distinct potential for strong to damaging wind gusts - especially today and tonight. - Instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding - particularly today through Thursday.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for the northeastern 2/3rds of eastern Kentucky until 8 AM EDT on Wednesday, primarily for flash flooding.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 424 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

With a strong ridge across the Gulf of America and parts of the Southern Mississippi Valley, and a strong upper level low in eastern Canada. The result will be strong NW to SE flow across the Ohio Valley, including Kentucky on Thursday - a continuation from the short term portion of the forecast. With an elongated surface boundary also set up across the Ohio Valley, this could continue the pain train of MCS's passing southeast and through the region on Thursday. In some promising news, the ridge does start to build northward on Friday, which will push the storm trajectory north a bit. However, could still impact the northeast portion of the state during the day. The ridge will continue to build in further as we go into Saturday, sustaining through Sunday, before it's pushed back southward during the day Monday as troughing increases along the Atlantic Coast, reintroducing the same NW to SE flow to the region again through the rest of the forecast period.

As has been discussed over the past days, with each round of MCSs that moves through, another round of heavy to torrential rainfall will occur on increasingly saturated soils - so the flash flood threat will remain a concern. CAMS have really not been handling these MCSs well in the short term, both spatially or temporally. And if the CAMs aren't handling it well, the long-term models are also not lending much confidence. Friday is also a bit interesting because the upper level forcing will be lessoning, but the surface boundary will finally drop southward into the state as a cold front, which could continue some convection across the region - though still unclear if there will actually be an MCS or just more scattered to widespread convection. By Saturday, as ridging takes further hold and the surface boundary drops farther south of the state, high pressure should generally be in control. This should persist into Sunday. The NBM does still have some very low end pops, mainly along the far eastern side of the state, but don't expect anything more at this point.

When the pattern begins to set back up with SW flow on Monday into Tuesday, WPC is also analyzing another cold front shifting southeast through the state as well, which, if it pans out, would bring yet another increase in precipitation to the region.

Despite the passage of cold fronts and numerous systems moving through, overall temperatures are forecast to rather steady-state, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will be in the upper

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

Forecast remains complex and messy, with multiple rounds of showers and storms still to come with isolated to scattered thunderstorms between rounds in addition to trailing stratiform rainfall regions. Confidence is not high in timing of impactful weather and associated visibility and ceiling reductions, hence several prob30 groups. Thunderstorms will advance through the region from northwest to southeast, with the next widespread round of storms expected to enter northern Kentucky late tonight (after 06Z).

Meanwhile, away from any thunderstorms, winds will be light at less then 10 kts - generally from the south to southwest. Gusts within a thunderstorm could easily be variable at 30 kts and substantially higher if the storm is a severe one or on the leading edge of an organized storm cluster.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.