textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A boundary wavers over the region today, with small shower chances returning to counties along the TN and VA borders this morning.

- Drier and cooler air spreads across the area on tonight, then lingers through the first half of the work week.

- Expect warmer temperatures for the second half of the work week, but with continued dry weather conditions.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 213 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Those who have been looking forward to pleasant autumn weather across Eastern Kentucky are in luck, because the long term forecast period is just that. When the period opens Monday night, a drier and cooler airmass will continue to be advecting into the region via northerly to northwesterly flow throughout the atmospheric column. Shifting synoptics aloft will cause the mid/upper level flow to adopt a quasi- zonal orientation by midweek, and the corresponding surface anticyclone is expected to propagate east through the Wabash and Ohio River Valleys in this same time frame. While mostly clear skies and the loss of the northerly wind component favor a warming trend, neither of these shifts favor efficient moisture return. Rather, they favor a prolonged period of efficient diurnal insolation and mixing processes in Eastern Kentucky.

In sensible weather terms, this means that widespread high temperatures in the 70s on Monday and Tuesday will creep towards the 80 degree mark as the week progresses. Southern and western locales will be the first to return to highs in the 80s on Wednesday, with these above-normal high temperatures creeping further east-northeast on Thursday and again Friday. However, dewpoints will likely struggle to rise much higher than the low to mid 50s. Efficient diurnal mixing should yield dewpoint depressions on the magnitude of 25-35 degrees, and it is plausible that those dewpoints could under- perform the blended NBM guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids. Nevertheless, with fair skies in the forecast grids, it should feel fantastic outside each afternoon. These are prime conditions for outdoor fall activities such as hiking and leaf- chasing, so get outside and enjoy it!

This week's synoptic weather pattern is also favorable for efficient radiational cooling at night. Expect ridge/valley temperature splits to emerge after sunset each night, with the shadier valleys dropping off the fastest. Some of the most sheltered/shaded valley locales could experience lows in the upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday nights, but most valley locations should experience MinTs in the 40s this week. Fog remains favored over frost as a result, with the greatest fog coverage expected along the area's waterways. Therefore, aside from localized visibility reductions from the AM fog, the risk for hazardous weather in the long term forecast period is quite low.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026

At 05z, conditions ranged from VFR at KSYM, KIOB, and KSME, to IFR or lower at the remaining sites. KIOB and KSYM will probably see enough drying to stay unaffected through the remainder of the overnight into Sunday morning, while terminals farther south are likely to see periods of IFR or LIFR through 13z-14z. Conditions will then gradually improve through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon, when VFR conditions can be expected everywhere. Winds will be light and variable through the period, remaining at or below 5 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.