textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The best chances for and thunderstorms today and tonight will be north of the Hal Rogers Pkwy to KY 80 corridor.

- Temperatures will likely soar into the upper 70s south of the Mtn Pkwy today with mid 70s to lower 80s areawide on Friday and Saturday, threatening daily record highs.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday as a strong cold front moves through the area with damaging winds the primary threat.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026

The extended period begins Friday evening with the region positioned under the influence of surface high pressure while simultaneously entering the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The parent surface low is progged to migrate northeast from the Mid- Mississippi Valley toward the Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes. As this evolution occurs, the associated warm front will lift through the Ohio Valley while the cold front slowly tracks eastward. Within the warm sector, temperatures are forecast to remain mild, ranging from the low to mid 60s overnight Friday into Saturday.

Beginning Saturday morning, forecast uncertainty increases regarding the potential for strong to severe convection. Two primary scenarios are currently being monitored. In the first scenario, the area remains rain-free with clearing skies, allowing for increased destabilization by Saturday afternoon. Deterministic forecast soundings for this solution indicate MUCAPE values near 1,500 J/kg, effective bulk shear around 35 knots, and surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. While low-level lapse rates appear favorable, mid- level lapse rates remain marginal. A significant limiting factor for this scenario is the core of the LLJ, which is forecast to shift northeastward before the arrival of the front, effectively disconnecting the strongest kinematic support from the thermodynamic environment. Conversely, the second scenario involves pre-frontal showers or persistent cloud cover, which would significantly limit the severe weather threat. In this case, robust atmospheric recovery would be required before the arrival of the cold front Saturday afternoon. In the latest SPC Day 3 outlook, the area is comfortably in a Marginal Risk but the northeastern third of the CWA is clipped by a Slight Risk which would primarily focused on where the LLJ is playing the biggest role. Regardless of the scenario, the front will move into the region Saturday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms before stalling in a northeast-to-southwest orientation across the area through Sunday.

A brief reprieve from precipitation is expected early Monday; however, this will be short-lived. The stalled boundary will serve as the focus for convective redevelopment by Monday afternoon. While PoPs do not fall to 0 percent, they decrease to 10 percent before rising to 30-40 percent as an upper-level wave interacts with the baroclinic zone. This feature will lift the boundary northward as a warm front through Tuesday. By Wednesday, the warm front is forecast to extend from Missouri to Maine, with a primary surface low situated over the Ark-La-Tex region. This placement keeps the CWA within the warm sector ahead of a subsequent cold front toward the end of the period.

The forecast period will be characterized by multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for strong to severe activity on Saturday if environmental parameters align. Temperatures are forecast to remain well above average, peaking near 80 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday before cooler post-frontal air arrives on Thursday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026

For the 12Z TAF issuance VFR was reported over central to eastern KY as the main area of showers and storms continues to remain nearer to the OH River and west of I-65 from KSDF south to middle and western TN. Convection to the west should gradually move toward the region during the first 6 hours of the period, and be more likely to affect locations form KJKL to KSJS north or the 4 more northern TAF sites after 14Z. As the last 12 hours progresses convection if it occurs should be more focused nearer to KIOB and KSYM. Outside of the stronger showers or storms, conditions should remain mainly VFR, with occasional MVFR, and in some cases brief IFR in convection. Further south, KSME and KLOZ will remain prevailing VFR throughout the period. With stronger winds aloft initially present, LLWS will be a threat through 14Z or 15Z. As the nocturnal inversion mixes out and convection and/or an outflow boundary arrive from the west, south to southwest winds with gusts to around 25KT are possible, generally between 14Z and 21Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.