textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area today.

- Some storms on this afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail.

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 750 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026

The areal extent of fog was adjusted based on recent satellite imagery and observations. This led to no substantial changes at this time. Valley fog should still lift and dissipate over the next couple of hours. Then attention turns to an approaching cold front and upper level disturbance that will move into eastern KY during peak heating. Several of the HRRR runs overnight continue to support the potential for gusty to locally damaging clusters or line segments for later in the afternoon and evening, though they vary in location. Trends for this potential will continue to be monitored.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026

At the start of the long term period, the main story will be pleasant weather more reminiscent of early fall than late August. Upper level troughing will sit over the eastern CONUS, with a relatively vertically stacked low pressure system over Ontario. Meanwhile, to the southwest of the forecast area, upper level ridging will be centered over the Southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Midwest, with winds generally light and northwesterly across eastern Kentucky; this will work to maintain the cooler and drier postfrontal air mass to begin the week. These light winds and a weak pressure gradient across the area will also allow for a modest ridge valley temperature split overnight Sunday into Monday morning, with typical valley fog formation. MOS guidance could be a bit aggressive with overnight lows for some spots, given lingering moisture, and low 50s for the coldest spots may be overdone. For most or all locations, low temperatures will likely range from the mid 50s in valley locations to the upper 50s or around 60 on the ridgetops. During the day on Monday, the upper level ridge will expand eastward somewhat. Associated height rises across the Ohio Valley should work to keep the forecast area dry, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s. Thankfully, continued northwesterly winds will keep dewpoints blissfully low in the mid 50s. Overnight, low temperatures will again fall into the 50s, with a similar modest ridge valley temperature split and another night of river valley fog.

On Tuesday, forecast uncertainty increases somewhat. The upper level trough axis will be well east of the area, with eastern Kentucky in a region of northwest flow aloft. Many models depict a shortwave traversing this flow, with fairly substantial spatial and timing differences; at present, the most likely outcome is that, at best, this energy delivers a glancing blow to the forecast area, relegating any rain chances to Tennessee. However, some deterministic model runs do suggest that an isolated shower or storm could be possible in our southwestern counties. Even so, a drier solution currently appears far more likely, and NBM PoPs are accordingly very low.

More widespread rain chances may return to the forecast on Wednesday as a surface low originally over Oklahoma translates northeastward. A warm front associated with this low will attempt to lift towards the area; however, a cold front extending from another surface low over the Upper Midwest will loom to the west of the forecast area. Given the expected eastward progression of this cold front, there is significant uncertainty regarding how far north the warm front can progress before it is overtaken. Broadly, Wednesday and Thursday will feature increased moisture and a chance of showers and storms; however, any forecast details will remain dependent on the location, progression, and timing of these boundaries, and forecast uncertainty is very high at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026

Fog formed in the valleys overnight and lifted into most of the TAF sites at least for a time. This fog has generally been the least persistent and intense near KIOB, with the rest of the sites experiencing at least a brief period of below airport min ceilings or visibility. This fog should lift and dissipate through about 14Z and give way to cumulus development by 16Z. A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 17Z and 01Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gusts in the 30 to 40KT range if not locally higher are not out of the question. PROB30 groups were included for a few hours at all sites for the potential for thunder on station for a brief period. Any convection could bring brief reductions to IFR if not lower. Winds will be light and variable to begin the period, but become WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 14Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front between 00Z and 06Z and slacken. Some fog development is favored during the last 6 hours of the period and IFR or lower reductions for areas mainly south of KSYM and KIOB are possible per guidance as high pressure builds in behind the front.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.