textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm chances return to the southeast portion of the state this afternoon, with heavy rainfall a distinct threat. - Shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for the rest of the week, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

UPDATE

Issued at 125 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1042 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

Skies have cleared nearly everywhere this evening with exception of a few spots near Lake Cumberland and even there those clouds should eventually dissipate. This is already setting the stage for valley fog formation in the deeper river valleys of those counties adjacent to the KY-VA and KY-TN borders. That should continue to be the story through the remainder of the night as fog continues to expand through the river valleys. However, it is worth noting that that there will be 10 to 20 kts of northeasterly flow within just a few thousand feet AGL. The resulting low-level mixing and turbulence from that near-surface flow should help keep the fog restricted to the sheltered valleys. Look for low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s, valleys to thermal belt ridgetops.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 532 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

The long wave pattern will be amplified through early next week, as stronger ridge centers dominate from the western Atlantic as well as the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, a deeper low will be churning over Hudson Bay, with broad cyclonic flow fanned south across the north central CONUS. This cyclonic flow will dampen and become more confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late this weekend and into early next week. Diurnally-driven convection will threaten each day across eastern Kentucky, although areal coverage should generally lessen by the latter half of the weekend and into early next week, given the weaker forcing in place and decreasing PWATs across the region.

Wednesday will likely be the day of better areal convective coverage, as a remnant upper level low weakens but also drifts north towards the Commonwealth. PWATs look to increase to the 1.7-1.8 inch range, coupled with freezing levels above 15k feet agl, and storm motions of less than 10 kts. As such, isolated flash flooding will be possible where thunderstorms are most persistent. Residual troughing will then linger across the Ohio Valley from Thursday through Saturday, before easing up more so Sunday and Monday. Again, this should result in more limited convective coverage each day, although given the successive days of storm potential and continued meager storm motions, isolated flash flooding will threaten at times through the end of the work week. Highs will slowly moderate each day, starting out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, and reaching the mid to upper 80s by early next week. Lows will average in the mid to upper 60s. Humidity levels will remain elevated throughout the period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026

High pressure passing to our north will keep skies mostly clear through morning allowing fog formation in many of the sheltered river valleys. However, northeasterly flow just off the ridgetops should be sufficient to keep most of the fog confined there and away from the TAF sites. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions going into the day with a substantial cu field developing by late morning. There will also be a risk of isolated to scattered convection again this afternoon though most of the activity should stay southeast of the TAF terminals. Nevertheless, did include a Prob30 at KLOZ for this concern late in the afternoon and into the start of the evening. Winds will generally be from the north to northeast and light (under 10 kts) through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.