textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front brings isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with the best chances shifting south of the Mountain Parkway by late morning.

- Fair, comfortable, and dry conditions are expected for Labor Day, except for a rogue afternoon shower chance near Lake Cumberland.

- Warm, dry weather continues through Wednesday before a cold front brings renewed shower and thunderstorm chances on Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1010 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026

A poorly defined frontal boundary is transitioning south of the area this morning. Mostly elevated convection associated with the air mass change has developed over the region. NAM model soundings show a fair amount of CAPE in the 2-3K J/Kg range, supporting some potency in the convection in large enough updrafts. However, it's questionable whether enough surface heating can occur to get it firmly rooted at the ground before it begins to wind down today as we move into more of a post frontal regime. The forecast has been updated for the latest radar and model trends for precip, and for more clouds as based on satellite imagery.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the fog and low clouds through 14Z. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 115 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026

The long-term period opens Monday evening with the latest model suite analysis showing lingering troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Meanwhile, upper-level ridging is shifting east across the Mississippi River ahead of a trough transiting from the Pacific Northwest over the northern Rockies. Translating down to the surface, high pressure remains situated over the Lower Great Lakes and continues to dominate eastern Kentuckys weather. However, farther upstream, an ~1000 mb surface low is projected over the northern Plains while its associated cold front trails southwestward over the Great Basin.

The upper-level ridging will continue to shift eastward through midweek and gradually flatten as the upstream troughing traverses the northern CONUS, such that by late in the week, quasi-zonal flow with embedded shortwaves predominates over the Ohio Valley. At the surface, the aforementioned low lifts northeast to near James Bay by 00Z Thursday, where it becomes vertically stacked and weakens as it drifts into Quebec. However, there should be enough upper-level energy to push the systems associated cold front near the Ohio River. Shortwave ridging returns for Friday before another shortwave trough approaches for the upcoming weekend. Model spread does increase by the last days of the forecast period, leaving confidence in the details rather low.

In sensible weather terms, look for a fair and seasonably hot weather pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and nighttime lows range mostly through the 60s. Shower and thunderstorm chances return on Thursday with the arrival of the cold front. Behind the front, slightly cooler conditions along with diurnally modulated rain chances are then forecast heading into next weekend. Look for high temperatures to retreat to the lower to middle 80s by Friday and Saturday, while nighttime lows slip into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026

Very isolated showers/thunderstorms persisted in far southeast KY at TAF issuance, but will be winding down quickly. Conditions across the area were generally a mix of VFR and MVFR (due to ceilings). The ceilings will lift or breakup this afternoon, leaving VFR conditions area wide to last well into the night. Fog is forecast to develop in valleys late tonight, especially in southeast KY. However, confidence in timing and extent is meager. It would bring localized IFR or worse conditions, and may affect some TAF sites. Fog will dissipate on Monday morning and leave VFR conditions area wide to last into the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.