textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mainly clear skies, mild days, and chilly nights will persist well into next week.

- Light, patchy frost may develop tonight and again late Friday night in valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 153 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026

A blocky pattern will still hold at the start of the long term period, with an expansive and amplified midlevel ridge over the center of the country. To the west of the ridge, troughing associated with a closed low initially located over California will have little ability to progress east through early next week, when this disturbance lifts north and finally begins to flatten the ridge. With this pattern in place, local conditions will vary little from day to day through Tuesday as surface high pressure remains nearby.

Through Tuesday, weather should remain sunny as high pressure dominates. Each afternoon, temperatures will rise to near or slightly above average for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday does look to be the warmest day of the period, as the ridge expands east somewhat and 500 mb heights peak in roughly the 90th percentile compared to climatology. Even so, temperatures should remain mild, perhaps peaking in the mid 70s at most. Troughing off the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend will prevent any eastward progression of this ridge, keeping eastern Kentucky firmly east of the ridge axis, and by extension, the highest geopotential heights. By Monday the ridge will begin flattening, with high temperatures falling a degree or two.

Accompanying these pleasant temperatures will be plenty of sunshine. Skies should be nearly clear through the weekend, with just a slight uptick in upper level moisture by early next week as flow aloft begins to shift more westerly. With such dry air just above the surface, NBM dewpoints are almost certainly overdone, particularly in the afternoon hours. Thus, dewpoints were nudged down into the low and mid 40s, much more in line with ensemble guidance. Overnight, this dry air, in addition to clear skies and a weak pressure gradient, should allow for efficient radiational cooling. This will set the stage for ridge valley splits as valleys fall into the upper 30s and ridgetop lows remain in the low 40s through early next week.

By Tuesday, flow aloft will become more southwesterly as the ridge finally breaks down and troughing begins to dig into the central CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low will progress across the Midwest, with a weak and poorly defined cold front extending to the southwest of this system. This front will attempt to sag toward our area somewhat, but with limited upper level support, it should lose steam and become more diffuse with time, and is not expected to make it to the Commonwealth. Thus, the forecast still remains dry, with the main change being a slight increase in cloud cover and highs cooling by a degree or two.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period at TAF sites. Fog is possible in many valley locations again late tonight, though may be a bit more confined to the deeper and more sheltered areas than previous nights as a weak cold front moves across the region overnight, perhaps keeping just enough mixing to keep more exposed valleys from seeing as much fog as typical.

Light and variable or north to northeast winds will transition to a more east to northeast direction behind tonight's cold front passage, but sustained winds are expected to remain below 10 kts through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.