textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm will bring significant snow and ice accumulations this weekend.

- Colder weather returns tonight and lasts through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 845 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026

Forecast seems to be well in check thus far. A fairly benign night overall. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term grids were on track with the current conditions, which only resulted in some minor changes. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 547 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026

Saturday and Sunday a winter storm is poised to move across Eastern Kentucky, producing periods of heavy snow, sleet, freezing rain, and possibly rain across the area. At the open Saturday morning, An area of high pressure will be present off to the northwest, as it sinks south out of the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile a low pressure will track along a stalled baroclinic zone out of south Texas, into the Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile a Gulf low will aid in moisture transport north into the Tennessee valley.

Weather models and their ensembles continue to shift northward over the last several runs. Additional notable changes include the presence of a strong low level jet in recent model runs of the ECMWF and the NAM. The presence of this low level jet can strengthen the warm-nose aloft intruding northward into the southern parts of our warning area in Eastern Kentucky. Since this signal has strengthened, a wintry mix has become a more likely outcome along and south of the Kentucky State Route 80, Hal Rogers Parkway corridor. At present, this area can expect snowfall of 3 to 7 inches in addition to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain ranging from 0.1 to 0.4 inches. Further north, where colder air may remain more entrenched, greater snowfall is expected. At current 7 to 12 inches of snow is anticipated along and north of the Kentucky State Route 80 and the Hal Rogers Parkway corridor. There may also be a period of wintry mixed precipitation such as sleet and freezing rain. At current this would only total up to a tenth of an inch or less. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for all of Eastern Kentucky for Saturday morning thorough Monday morning. A word of caution, with the models continuing to trend northward, and the strengthening low level jet, warmer air will cut into snow totals further if this persists.

Temperatures Saturday will range greatly. At current, along and north the I-64 corridor, temperatures will struggle to reach 20, likely remaining in the teens. Mid 20s to lower 30s will then be present south of the Parkway, with low 30s occurring along the state boarder. At night, temperatures will cool into the teens for most of the area, with low 20s near the stateline with bordering Tennessee and Virginia. Sunday, a surge of warm air will help surface temperatures warm into he upper 20s to low 40s from north to south across the area. However, cold arctic air moves into the area behind the system. While some snow showers may linger into Monday morning, low temperatures will range from 5 to 15 above zero.

Monday, temperatures don't recover much during the day. Except for some lingering snow showers, dry conditions will be prevailing, with temperatures reaching the teens to low 20s. Monday evening, as skies clear some, temperatures will plummet generally ranging from 5 above to 5 below zero. This will create dangerous wind chills as cold as the negative teens.

Tuesday remains dry, with temperatures warming into the lower 20s to low 30s from north to south, with lows ranging from 10 to 15 degrees. A cold front from a Great Lakes Low will move could move across Eastern Kentucky on Wednesday morning, which would bring scattered snow showers to the area. Temperatures are expected to range from the upper 20s in the north to the mid 30s in the south. Lows continue to cool into the single digits to low teens at night Thursday, another upper level low looks to transit the Great Lakes. This may lead to scattered snow showers in far eastern Kentucky. Temperatures range from teens to upper 20s from north to south across the area. Lows could be near zero at night.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 849 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026

High pressure is still in place across eastern Kentucky, resulting in fairly benign conditions - VFR CIGS and VIS and generally calm winds. A weak and dry cold front is analyzed to move through Friday morning, but should have little impact other than a wind shift to the north (though still below 10kts) and possibly some high clouds. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.