textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather continues today, with widespread heat indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

- An anomalously moist airmass over the region should lead to rounds of storms through Sunday, some of which could produce strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- A series of systems cross the region early next week, bringing rounds of storms Tuesday to Wednesday, followed by relatively cooler and drier weather for the second half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure west of the state with a dome of high heights over eastern Kentucky. This is keeping most of the area free of convection except for some pinprick cells that are nearly stationary providing a scant few locations a narrow bout of heavy rain. The worst so far has been over central Jackson County where there was some small response in the creeks per the CREST analysis, but that cell has since dissipated. Otherwise, the activity fades out with sunset allowing for mostly clear skies and the development of fog in the valleys becoming locally dense - especially for spots that saw any rain today. Currently, temperatures are running in the still very warm low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints remain quite high in the low to mid 70s most places. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Saturday evening into Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across Eastern Kentucky, as a shortwave moves through a positively tilted trough covering much of the Northeast US and Southeast Canada and an associated cold front sags into the OH Valley and portions of the Appalachians. Farther upstream, a high amplitude ridge of high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West, with the apex of the ridge axis extending well into Alberta and Saskatchewan. Models also depict another upper level low on the upstream side of the ridge, located in British Columbia.

The cold front becomes draped across the Ohio Valley late Saturday night and is expected to continue to sag south into Kentucky on Sunday. PWATs will be close to 2 inches ahead of the cold front, dropping to around 1 inch behind it. Storms ahead of the cold front Saturday evening through Sunday will have potential to put down localized heavy rainfall. The WPC has placed most of the Big Sandy and southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins in a marginal ERO Saturday through Sunday morning. While all of the better severe weather parameters (especially shear) stay north of the forecast area and in the Ohio Valley, there may be a low end severe threat across Kentucky. Moderate instability is anticipated and water loaded downdrafts could result in strong to damaging wind gusts from isolated to scattered activity early Saturday evening. Locations in and around thunderstorms may experience gusty and erratic winds. Convective allowing models suggest a weakening line of storms may move into eastern KY around sunset or a bit after and there could be a small wind gust threat from this as well. The SPC has the entire area under a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday and more southern location on Sunday ahead of the front where instability may be strongest.

Through Sunday, as the upper level low progresses deeper into Northeast Canada, the trailing cold front slowly slides off to the east producing additional showers and storms along the way. The upper level low over British Columbia rides over the ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West. Height rises are expected Sunday night through Monday, leading to a break in active weather and mostly sunny skies Monday.

By Tuesday, the upper level low that was modeled to ride over the ridge, spills down the lee side, into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Another cold front will pass trough the region Sometime Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Some models are suggesting a great deal of moisture accompanying this system and preceding the frontal passage. This will continue to be monitored. After showers and storms move through with the cold frontal passage much drier air is forecasted to move into the area. This will contribute to a dry Thursday.

Temperatures generally range from the mid to upper 80s during the afternoons and upper 60s to lower 70s at night, at least through Tuesday. After the frontal passage Tuesday temperatures are expected to cool some, ranging from the low to mid 80s during the afternoons, cooling into the lower 60s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

At issuance time, VFR conditions prevailed at the TAF sites while valley fog with MVFR to IFR reductions was evident across eastern and southern river valley locations. Locally wet grounds from rainfall on Thursday and an overall increase in low-level moisture relative to 24 hours ago results in rather high confidence in more extensive fog compared to Thursday morning. KSME and KLOZ are the most likely TAF sites to be affected by the greater reductions following rainfall in the vicinity on Thursday and tempos down to IFR are forecast for both locations with prevailing MVFR. Elsewhere, with the exception of KJKL, TEMPOs cover the potential for lesser reductions to MVFR. Once the fog lifts and dissipates by around 13Z, expect another day of cumulus development by around 16Z and isolated to scattered showers and storms between 16Z and 00Z, with spatial coverage likely the greatest for the more western terminals. Outside of any showers and storms, expect generally light winds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.