textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area this evening.

- Some storms could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and hail this evening.

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air will arrive behind the cold front to start the new week with dry weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 838 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026

Precip has tapered off with the exception of the far southern and southeaster portions of the forecast area, where there is still a threat of severe weather for a short time yet. The forecast has been updated for the latest trends on radar.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 457 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026

The long-term period opens with quiet weather Monday morning. The 22/12z model suite analysis shows mean troughing in place across the eastern CONUS around a parent ~558 dam low spinning near/over the Ottawa Valley. A smaller upstream closed ~570 dam low is transiting from southern Alberta into Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, an ~596 dam upper level high is centered near/over New Mexico. Translating down to the surface, an ~1005 mb surface low is nearly vertically stacked under the parent low between James Bay and Lake Ontario. Its cold front sweeps south-southeastward along the Carolina coast and then arcs southwest to west through the Gulf Coast states before extending back northwestward into the central Plains. Cool Canadian high pressure, cradled in the arc of the cold front, extends from northwestern Ontario to over the Commonwealth. Farther upstream, an ~1005 mb surface low is passing over southern Saskatchewan and dragging a trailing cold front through the Northern Rockies and Great Basin.

For Monday through Tuesday, heights will gradually rise over the Ohio Valley as the first upper-level trough and its parent low shift away to the northeast and surface high pressure settles southeast, cresting over eastern Kentucky with PWATs close to 0.75 inches. With time, a warm front will try to ease back northward toward the Commonwealth, allowing PWATs to recover back toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday. However, heights will fall slightly again mid- to late week as the aforementioned closed upper low over the Canadian Prairies digs southeast, opens, and reinforces troughing over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the work week. This will support the next area of low pressure tracking into eastern Canada while its trailing cold front slides southward into the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. Drier weather may follow a second cold front heading into next weekend.

In sensible weather terms, look for fair and cool weather through Tuesday night, with lows ranging in the 50s to near 60F and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Fog is likely in the mainstem river valleys late each night through mid-morning. Low to medium precipitation chances in the form of diurnally modulated showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday and persist through Friday as the first cold front works through the region, before trending drier by Saturday. Look for highs ranging mainly in the mid 80s from Wednesday onward, while nighttime lows moderate into the 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026

Thunderstorms were ongoing over portions of southeast KY at the start of the period. They will exit to the south and southeast late this evening, but are not expected to affect TAF sites. They will bring localized IFR or worse conditions. A cooler and drier air mass will arrive tonight and Sunday behind the cold front which initiated the storms. However, the new air mas will probably not be able to displace the old air mass out of the deeper valleys, especially where rain cooled and moistened the air. In light of clearing skies, this should lead to fog development. The question is how extensive this becomes, with ridges more likely to realize the change in air mass. Hence, it's not a particularly high confidence forecast for visibility tonight into Sunday morning. Many locations should have IFR or worse conditions at least at times. Once fog dissipates on Sunday morning, VFR conditions should finish the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.