textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms are possible again early this morning some of which could be severe (damaging wind is the main threat, though heavy rain is also a concern).

- Thunderstorms are also possible later today, especially in southeast Kentucky. - Drier weather with modestly lower humidity behind a cold front will last from Wednesday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026

Was able to clear out the watch about an hour before it was set to expire, though there is a concern for renewed activity coming in from the north closer towards dawn. Some of these storms could be severe along with a threat of flooding depending on how organized they become. Otherwise, have updated the forecast by including the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with PoP adjustments through dawn based on the latest CAMs consensus. These tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, zones, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1020 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026

Went ahead and extended the watch south to the Tennessee border given the push of the bow moving south through Central Kentucky. It may weaken before it gets to the state line but probably remains a threat well past the original watch outline. Have updated the forecast grids for this and adjusted the PoPs and thunder chances per the radar trends. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, zones, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 834 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026

Convection is arriving faster than was forecast, and higher POPs have been added earlier, arriving from NNW to SSE this evening. Svr tstm watch #523 was issued for our NW counties for the storms' arrival. However, mesonet wind gust obs so far are not impressive in northern KY. Mesoscale models generally suggest that the initial storms will eventually fade as they come south this evening. Have allowed this to happen, but blended that scenario into the previously existing forecast for renewed activity during the night.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 608 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026

The models remain in good agreement through Friday. An anomalously strong upper level high will meander west over the Four Corners region, with ridging dominating across the Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, troughing will remain in place across the eastern third of the CONUS. By this weekend, deeper eastern Pacific energy moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest, pivoting a ridge axis towards the central Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Further east, a short wave trough will move southeast from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, reinforcing troughing across the East. There continues to be high confidence regarding the drier and cooler weather expected across eastern Kentucky from Wednesday through Friday. As we come more under the influence of the trough this weekend and into early next week, a return of more diurnally- driven convection is anticipated, although details remain lower confidence at this point.

Drier air will be advecting in on low level north to northwest flow across eastern Kentucky on Wednesday, with highs retreating to the lower 80s and dew points dropping into the lower 60s. Surface high pressure will continue to build in for Wednesday night, with patchy valley fog and temperatures cooling off to the mid to upper 50s in sheltered valley locations, while broader valleys and ridges stay closer to the 60 degree mark. Modest 500 mb height rises and short wave ridging will maintain mostly clear skies and dry weather across our area through Friday. Temperatures will remain closer to normal for late July, with highs averaging in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.

This weekend and into early next week, rain chances will creep back into our area, as low level moisture increases and troughing returns across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys aloft. Again, PoPs will tend to peak in the afternoon hours, but fortunately, LREF mean PWATs are only peaking in the 50th-75th percentile versus climatology during this time frame, keeping any hydro threats more suppressed. Temperatures will remain seasonable, with highs in the mid 80s each day and overnight lows in the mid 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026

After an active evening, VFR conditions have returned to most of the TAF sites for the start of the 06Z period. Showers and thunderstorms will likely redevelop north of the area and propagate SSE into eastern Kentucky later this morning - pre dawn. Have covered favored times with prob30 groups. IFR or worse conditions can be expected with any of the heavier thunderstorms. There is good potential for strong winds with the more intense storms, but forecast confidence in timing and placement remains rather low. A cold front will be moving through later today, but destabilization ahead of it during peak heating may give an uptick in thunderstorm activity and strength for a time, especially in southeast parts of the aviation forecast area. Even this renewed convection should wane and largely be gone from southeast Kentucky by evening. Away from any storms, winds will be light and variable through early afternoon before favoring the northwest direction at up to 10 kts. Some LLWS cannot be ruled out through dawn, but it should be fleeting if it sets up.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.