textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A very dry air mass will settle over the region, dropping afternoon humidity levels into the 10 to 20 percent range today, and still sub-30 percent for most areas on Wednesday.

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Thu. A strong cold front will then bring numerous to widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms late Thu night into Fri.

- Much colder air returns behind the front this weekend, bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Fri and Sat nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 1030 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

There are no changes to the forecast with the late morning update. Observed temperatures were updated and interpolated into the hourly forecast grids.

UPDATE Issued at 716 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

Temperatures have settled into the upper 20s in northern valleys to the mid 30s near Lake Cumberland as day breaks across eastern Kentucky. The high clouds crossing the area presently should thin out by late morning. Still anticipate lots of sunshine this afternoon with highs in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south with very low humidity levels bottoming out in the 10 to 20 percent range.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 512 AM EDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Eastern Kentucky opens the long term forecast period by being positioned within a warm air advection regime. Southerly to southwesterly low-level flow is expected to intensify from Wednesday night into Thursday, pumping a relatively warmer/moister airmass into the column. Expect seasonably warm overnight low temperatures in the 50s west of I-75, in the Bluegrass, and atop ridges. Depending on the amount of overnight cloud cover that is realized, the sheltered and shaded valley locales further to the east could thermally decouple. Even if this occurs though, the WAA processes will be enough to keep Thursday AM lows well above freezing. The aforementioned southwesterly winds correspond with both the shift of the antecedent surface high to the east and the lifting of a warm front through the region on Thursday morning. Isentropic lift on the northern nose of the related moisture return leads to low-end (15- 25%) shower/storm chances during the AM hours on Thursday, but model soundings suggest that any convective activity will be both elevated and weak in that time frame. The boundary looks to move north towards the Ohio River by midday, placing Eastern Kentucky in the open warm sector ahead of a stronger cold front's approach on Friday morning. The resultant tightening of the surface pressure gradient ahead of FROPA suggests that SW winds could gust up to 25-30 mph on Thursday afternoon. These gusts will be aided by diurnal mixing, which, in turn, allows highs to warm into the upper 70s/near 80s.

Traditionally, similar instances of springtime warmth out ahead of a cold front signal potential for stronger pre-frontal thunderstorms in the Ohio River Valley. While this particular system is forecast to yield widespread rain chances across Eastern Kentucky on Friday, the timing of its FROPA misaligns with peak diurnal heating and instability. By the time the best frontal forcing arrives on our side of the Ohio River, temperatures will have already radiationally cooled into the 60s. Thanks to persistent southwesterly surface winds overnight, dewpoint temperatures are forecast to remain in the the mid/upper 50s ahead of the front. This corresponds with mean PWAT values around 1.25 inches ahead of the front, but forecast model soundings depict a stout capping inversion across the I-64 corridor as precipitation chances rise to >50% on Friday morning. The parent synoptics aloft with this system do not appear particularly sharp, with uniform, quasi-zonal flow noted above the 850mb level across most deterministic forecast guidance. This will introduce some relatively drier continental air into the midlevels over our forecast area, and thus cap the intensity of any frontally- forced convection. Slightly better convective parameter spacing is noted to the NW of the forecast area on Thursday night, and SPC has accordingly drawn a Day 3 Marginal (1/5) Risk for portions of the commonwealth to the NW of I-64. Locally though, the current expectation is for linear upstream convection to weaken into general rain showers as it sags south across the forecast area on Friday morning.

Friday's sensible weather forecast will be highly dependent on the timing of this cold frontal passage. Given that the most probable solution is currently an AM frontal passage from north to south, the traditional diurnal heating curve is expected to be muted by plentiful cloud cover, rain-cooled air, and a shift to northerly surface flow. Friday's MaxTs could occur before noon, and in many places, temperatures will steadily drop throughout the day. The above conditions also will keep any pre-frontal diurnal instability in Southern KY at bay on Friday afternoon. All this to say, anafrontal rain showers appear to be most likely forecast solution with this particular atmospheric set up.

Perhaps the most significant sensible weather impacts with Friday's frontal boundary will come from the drop in temperatures and dewpoints behind it. Post-frontal northerly winds will advect a much drier and colder airmass into Eastern Kentucky on Friday night, with widespread lows near or below freezing. The 00z LREF Grand Ensemble currently resolves a >50% chance of freezing MinTs across the entire JKL CWA on Saturday morning, with >80% chances noted north of I-64. Interests with sensitive plants should monitor future forecast updates closely, as a frost is possible on both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Sunday morning could actually be even colder than Saturday morning if ridge-valley temperature splits come to fruition and valley locales drop into the low/mid 20s. Saturday's persistent dry air advection and the proximity of a broad, post-frontal high pressure system overhead reinforce the idea that these splits are plausible. Such synoptics favor efficient diurnal mixing, and afternoon MinRH values could drop below the critical 25% threshold on Saturday afternoon. Mixed boundary layer dewpoint data from the GFS and BUFKIT momentum transfer soundings suggest that mesoscale processes could lead to single digit dewpoints and 40-50 degree dewpoint depressions in Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon. Thankfully, winds will be fairly light within this continental high pressure regime, but elevated fire weather danger appears plausible on Saturday afternoon thanks to the utter dryness of the resultant airmass. It should be noted that these mesoscale forecast details are not currently reflected in the baseline NBM data used to populate the long term forecast grids. As the time frame approaches and forecast confidence increases, edits will be made accordingly. For now, fire weather interests should take note of the forecast for very dry weather on Saturday, and the general public is highly encouraged to follow all subsequent burn guidance or bans from the appropriate local, state, and federal authorities. Cool, dry sensible weather continues into Sunday, but the previously- discussed synoptics are forecast to shift east headed into the next work week. This favors progressively veering return flow, steadily warming highs, and gradually increasing amounts of atmospheric moisture on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. Another rain-producing system is poised to approach the area at the very end of the forecast period, but it is too early to provide specific details regarding its timing and any potential impacts right now.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue at the TAF sites through the forecast period as high pressure passes over the Upper Ohio Valley today and settles off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Wednesday. Only some high and mid level clouds are anticipated from time to time across eastern Kentucky. In this pattern, northeast to easterly winds at less than 10 kts are expected through the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.