textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- After a sharp cooldown behind a cold front today, mild temperatures return for Friday into the weekend.

- Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected Friday, and this could combine with drying conditions to result in a threat of wildfires.

- Warm conditions return Sunday with thunderstorm chances returning in the afternoon and evening.

- A cold front passage Sunday night will bring chilly conditions to begin next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 629 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026

A few snowflakes are flying on the back edge of the solid band of precipitation moving out of the area, with a few weak cold advection bands developing just behind this. The forecast is mainly on track, but did broaden the back end of the PoPs over southeastern Kentucky this morning to reflect these trends. By this afternoon sunny skies are expected everywhere.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 534 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026

Earlier Friday, an upper level low will work through the Great Lakes region and into the New England area. Friday evening, a trailing dry cold front will move through Eastern Kentucky. Winds will veer from southwesterly ahead of the front to northeasterly by Saturday morning. Temperatures will cool into the mid 30s in valleys and upper 30s to low 40s along ridge tops.

High pressure briefly builds into the area for Saturday. Afternoon dew points were adjusted down by blending the NBM using the 10th percentile. This yields dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s across the southwest, becoming drier, in the upper 20s across the northeast. Northeasterly winds in the wake of the departing cold front will lead to some dry air mixing downward ahead of an approaching warm front from the southwest. Temperatures will range from the lower 60s across the north, to upper 60s further south.

Elsewhere, across the Northern Rockies an upper level low is progged to dig south and phase with another low in the Central Plains. A warm front is expected to be positioned across the Ohio Valley, north of the forecast area, by Sunday morning. Through Sunday, this trough deepens over the Ozarks, with many models and ensembles are in fairly good agreement of this trough having a slight negative tilt. A LLJ will pass through the area, with 12Z LREF Grand Ensemble showing a 80-85% chance of seeing wind gusts of at least 35 mph. BUFKIT model soundings show momentum transfer of 30-33 kts (34-38 mph). As such, wind gusts were blended up with a 60/40 blend toward the 90th percentile of the NBM. Winds could gust as high as 25-35 mph Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Stern southerly winds will advect warmer air into the region, leading to temperature climbing into the 70s across the area. Heading into the overnight Sunday into Monday, widespread showers will occur ahead of a cold frontal passage. Temperatures are expected to drop sharply behind the front, likely going from lower 60s around midnight, to the mid to upper 30s for most by Monday morning.

Monday, rain-snow showers will slowly taper off from southwest to northeast as the system moves off to the northeast. Being on the backside of the trough, CAA may lead to temperatures either leveling out or falling slightly through the day. Highs in the low 40s to low 50s from west to east will likely occur near or just after sunrise, before falling into the teens to low 20s Monday night. Snow showers may lead to minor accumulations.

Tuesday, in the wake of the departing trough, cold-dry air continues to work into the area. Temperatures "warm" into the mid to upper 30s through the day. Dew points in the single digits will lead to RH's in the 20s. Ahead of an approaching shortwave from Alberta, lows will range in the low to mid 20. As mentioned, a shortwave will ride the high amplitude ridge-trough flow and bring a chance of rain and snow to portions of Eastern Kentucky on Wednesday. Cold air remains for one last day, with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026

Rain and snow will gradually exit the area through the remainder of this morning, with the TAF period beginning with a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions. Skies will improve/clear through the late morning into midday period, with generally clear skies across the area expected no later than ~16z.

North to northwest winds will remain gusty this morning, with speeds diminishing somewhat during the late morning hours before skies clear and mixing commences around 16z, which may result in an uptick in winds and wind gusts through the late afternoon before winds decouple around or shortly after sunset.

A low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes region Friday will push a dry cold front toward the area late in the day. By the end of the TAF period, generally after 09z, a low-level jet will begin to move over the area, bringing gusty south to southwest winds to exposed TAF sites and LLWS to more sheltered sites.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.