textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend begins today, with even warmer weather arriving Tuesday as temperatures climb into the 50s.

- Accumulating snow is possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a more significant storm system moves into the area.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 617 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026

The next notable storm system will impact eastern Kentucky at the beginning of the long-term period. The 12/00z model suite is in good agreement Tuesday evening, showing an amplifying trough over eastern North America around a ~487 dam parent low over northern Quebec. There is potent vort energy/shortwave troughing over eastern Manitoba/Western Ontario dropping into the trough. A much weaker ~568 dam low is also noted over Texas and is opening into the trough just to its north and east. An ~990 mb surface low should also be located near/north of Sault Ste Marie with a potent cold front extending southwestward into North Dakota and then northwestward into the Canadian Prairies.

The upper level vort energy/shortwave troughing will continue to sling southward on Wednesday, carving out a deep trough that is now forecast by the 12/00z GFS/ECMWF deterministic guidance to close off near/over Lower Michigan by 00z Thursday. This will fling the cold front southward across the Ohio Valley late Wednesday afternoon/evening while cyclogenesis initiates along the frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic. Behind that front and developing surface low, a much colder polar air mass will sweep south across the Great Lakes on a stiff northerly flow. The resulting lake-enhanced low-level moisture looks likely to interact favorably with our terrain, yielding orographically- enhanced snow showers as the 925-850 hPa streamlines are nearly perpendicular to Pine Mountain for much of Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, 850 hPa temperatures are favored to drop to near -15C, placing a vast majority of the moist convective layer in the DGZ. This snowfall would likely be dry, fluffy snow with SLRs greater than 15:1. Overall amounts remain somewhat uncertain at this point, as the depth/position of the upper level trough will be pivotal for the Great Lakes moisture enhancement and true coldness of the incoming air mass. With that said, the potential does exist for several inches of snowfall in the higher terrain near the VA-KY border to perhaps an inch or less west of I-75 and north of I-64. Heights are favored to rebound quickly Thursday evening/night, bringing any leftover snow shower activity to an end as Canadian high pressure makes a quick brush to our south and west. While the specific details are fuzzy, additional energy diving into the persistent troughing over the eastern half of the continent may very well close off into another low near/north of the Ohio River over the upcoming weekend, supporting another low passing near/over the Great Lakes. This would bring a brief period of warm air advection (possible precipitation) followed by a sharp cold front with additional snow shower chances. The magnitude of the cold air behind that front is highly uncertain due to substantial spread as the models struggle to resolve a potential incursion of arctic air.

In sensible weather terms, look for the mildest temperatures of the long-term period on Wednesday, ranging in the mid 40s to near 50s, albeit marred by likely to categorical rain chances. Temperatures drop precipitously later in the day, switching rain to snow showers that then persist across much of the forecast area into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday afternoon are only forecast to reach 25F to 30F and then dip into the teens on Thursday night. Drier and sunnier weather is expected for Friday with many locations breaking above the freezing mark, but additional snow shower chances are probable heading into the weekend, along with downward trending temperatures.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 653 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026

VFR conditions were observed at TAF issuance and will prevail through the TAF period as the forecast area remains on the northern fringe of surface high pressure. Sustained winds will become southwest at less than 10 kts today, with a few gusts to around 15 kts possible at LOZ, SME, and SYM.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.