textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the week.

- There is a high chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is expected at times through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday, with a threat of isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch has been issued for increased flash flood potential across the area, and is in effect from Thursday afternoon through Saturday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains.

For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday.

By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed.

Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

A mix of conditions is expected this afternoon and evening with scattered showers/ thunderstorms persisting through much of the period. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.