textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures and a greater potential for showers and thunderstorms start the new work week.

- These storms could be more organized and strong to severe late this afternoon into the night depending on thunderstorm cluster development and evolution to the north of Kentucky.

- Drier weather returns for the second half of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 135 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did usher the showers and storms out of the far south over the next couple of hours. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026

No major changes made to the forecast grids as the forecast remains on track through the evening. However, did incorporate the latest surface obs and made a few grids edits for the 00Z TAF issuance. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 258 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026

The long-term period opens Tuesday morning with a pronounced ~596 dam high over the Southern Rockies with a ridge axis extending northward into Central Canada. Meanwhile, troughing extends southward from an around 540 dam low over northern Quebec to along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. An embedded shortwave trough is present over the Lower Great Lakes. This will be mirrored at the surface by a 997 mb surface low over Lake Erie. A warm front extends southward from that low to over the Southern Appalachians while a cold front arcs southwest from the surface low over southern Indiana and Illinois and then beyond to over the High Plains of Montana. This will leave eastern Kentucky in the low's warm sector at daybreak Tuesday morning with a seasonably moist air mass (PWATs around 1.8 inches).

The surface low will shift eastward along the PA/NY Twin Tiers through the day and evening on Tuesday, dropping the cold front across the Commonwealth. Substantial uncertainty remains as to instability recovery ahead of this boundary given the likelihood for convection early in the day, and especially prior to sunrise with a potential MCS. If the frontal arrival is slower and greater destabilization occurs, unseasonably strong northwesterly flow aloft would support robust shear and organized convection. Conversely, a quicker frontal passage would tend to favor keeping any stronger organized convection confined to far southeastern Kentucky or perhaps entirely southeast of our CWA. In addition to the convective potential, Tuesday does appear breezy with some momentum transfer mixing to the surface from a low-level jet (30+ kt at 850 hPa). The high PWATs could also favor some isolated heavy rainfall. Any hydro problems would probably occur where substantial rainfall occurred during the last 12 hours of the short-term period; by Tuesday, the strong flow aloft should keep cell motions quite progressive.

Once the front clears the area, cooler and drier air will filter in on Tuesday night and Wednesday, with LREF mean precipitable water values dropping to between 0.75 and 1.00 inch, or near the 10th percentile relative to climatology. Aloft, ridging will remain over the West while troughing lingers over Eastern Canada and much of the Eastern CONUS. Surface high pressure drifting south from Ontario and Quebec will ensure dry conditions through Friday. Another shortwave trough drops into the broader trough during the upcoming weekend. This will foster another surface low developing over the Plains and drifting toward the Tennessee Valley vicinity, bringing back higher PWATs and the renewed threat of convection for Saturday and Sunday.

In sensible weather terms, look for a high chance of showers and thunderstorms (PoPs of 60 to 90 percent, highest in far eastern and southeastern Kentucky) on Tuesday. If substantial sunshine materializes, some of the storms could be strong to severe and also produce heavy downpours. It will be warm and humid with highs in the 80s. Fair weather follows for Tuesday night through Friday with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows mostly from 60 to 65F. As the threat of showers and thunderstorms returns for Saturday and Sunday, daily high temperatures will remain at similar levels, but nighttime lows will moderate to between 65 and 70F with higher humidity levels.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026

Mainly VFR TAFs are set up across eastern Kentucky with the 06Z issuance. This is in the wake of a thunderstorm cluster exiting out of far southwestern parts of the area into Tennessee. Expect VFR to be the case through the early part of the overnight before clearing skies allow for areas of patchy dense fog to develop in the valleys. Some of the fog could sneak into the TAF sites and bring categories down into MVFR and IFR - especially for those southwest sites that saw rain in the late evening/early overnight. All the fog will clear out just after sunrise allowing VFR conditions to return with light and variable winds. Late tonight, a new cluster of thunderstorms may start to impinge on the northern terminals towards midnight. Have included a PROB30 at both IOB and SYM for this.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.