textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will moderate to much warmer than normal values by Christmas day, and these continue into this weekend. - Periodic rain chances will occur through much of the holiday week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 510 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025

The model agreement remains solid regarding unseasonably strong ridging that will be in place across the south central U.S. through Christmas Eve while deeper troughing encroaches upon the West Coast. The models differ more so after Christmas Day, as the ECWMF remains faster with the trough coming onshore compared to the GFS. These differences will have larger implications downstream through this weekend, with the ECWMF depicting a deeper trough/closed low that moves east along the U.S./Canadian border. This would sustain the unseasonably warm temperatures longer across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, as short wave ridging would be renewed east of the Mississippi River out ahead of the trough. The GFS is less amplified and further north with the trajectory of this system. This would allow for more zonal flow in the East, with at least slightly cooler temperatures in place, before the passage of a more decisive cold front by the end of the week. As such, confidence in the forecast goes down markedly after Christmas, and especially by Sunday. This is also confirmed by the more abrupt increase in model spread regarding the temperatures seen in the blended guidance by the end of the week.

A progressive cold front will start out across eastern Kentucky Tuesday night, sustaining some rain chances over the area, before the boundary sags into the Tennessee Valley by early Wednesday morning. Lows will range from the mid 40s north of the Mountain Parkway to the mid 50s near the Tennessee border. This boundary will then shift back northeast over the Coalfields as a warm front on Wednesday, bringing at least slight chances of rain. Highs will rebound to the upper 50s north, to the mid 60s south. An uptick in 850 mb moisture transport associated with a nocturnal low level jet will bring likely rain chances back into the area after dark on Christmas Eve, with the highest chances favored closer to the Ohio River, where there will be somewhat better upper level support. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

Christmas Day, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 60s under mostly cloudy skies and diminishing rain chances through the day, as 850 mb moisture transport weakens. Yet another 850 mb jet uptick occurs Thursday night, bringing the next increase in rain chances across eastern Kentucky. Again, model agreement has diminished here, as the ECMWF now delays the progression of the cold front, while the GFS pushes this boundary through the area Friday into Saturday, with temperatures quite a bit cooler on highs by that time comparatively. Either way, rain chances continue in the forecast through the period, but are somewhat less compared to the guidance from last night. On Sunday, a stronger cold front will move through the Commonwealth, with a better chance of rain once again and possibly the last day of above normal temperatures for this stretch of warmth, depending on model trends.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 739 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025

VFR conditions are noted across the Commonwealth at TAF issuance and will continue for a vast majority of the period and VFR should continue through at least the 00Z to 03Z timeframe. High pressure will keep clouds limited to the mid and high levels at times until 21Z or later when low level moisture and clouds increase followed by light rain chances as a warm front and disturbance approach. A few locations in the west and northwest could reach MVFR ceilings by 06Z including KSYM with MVFR spreading to the east and southeast to end the period. Some light rain will reach the ground within it and there could be times where ceilings are in the lower end of the MVFR range. Winds will be light and variable initially, becoming southeast to south at less than 10KT between 15Z and 18Z. Finally, a low- level jet will lead to a level wind shear threat between about 02Z and 13Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.