textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures will last into the weekend, with milder readings then returning early next week.

- A soaking rainfall will occur for the second half of this weekend.

- Well above normal temperatures expected through the middle of next week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 425 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026

The long wave pattern will feature progressive and amplified flow across the CONUS this weekend and into next week. While the model agreement is good on the overall regime, smaller scale feature differences show increasing spread with time by next week.

On Saturday, a southern stream short wave trough will cruise east from the Desert Southwest, likely transitioning to a cutoff low as it reaches the lower Mississippi Valley by early Sunday morning. This feature will then dampen as it migrates over the Deep South, with still some differences on the exact track as it nears the Southeast coast by Monday. At the surface, low pressure will evolve similarly, deepening Saturday night into early Sunday, before gradually weakening from Sunday into Monday. PWATs will be high climatologically speaking across eastern Kentucky, generally 90th percentile or higher, but 850 mb moisture transport does not look too impressive, and upper level dynamics are more modest as well. Probabilities of seeing greater than an inch of rainfall in 24 hours have been oscillating from run to run in the models, but the higher probs generally remain focused more along the I-75 corridor and points west. Probabilities of exceeding 2 inches have consistently remained less than 10 percent east of I-75 over the past few days. As such, any hydro threat remains low at this time.

Ridging aloft and at the surface will build in for Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, deeper troughing takes shape over the West, with short wave troughs ejecting northeastward from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest, with some better cyclogenesis taking place across the Plains along a tighter baroclinic zone that spreads east through the Ohio Valley. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on how all of this evolves, with notable model differences regarding timing and intensity of the smaller scale features. There is high confidence eastern Kentucky remains in the warm sector, with well above normal temperatures expected. Rain chances will return to the forecast Wednesday through Thursday, as moisture transport generally increases across the Ohio Valley, but confidence remains low in the details.

Sensible weather will feature warming temperatures and dry conditions hanging on through Saturday afternoon. Highs will range from the mid to upper 50s north to around 60 south. Rain will then overspread the area from southwest to northeast Saturday night, with Sunday morning generally the rainiest period. Rains will taper off by Sunday evening. Highs will be cooler on Sunday, ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Dry weather takes hold once again on Monday and continues through Wednesday morning. Highs will build each day, with upper 50s and lower 60s expected on Monday, and then well into the 60s by Wednesday. Highs may be a shade cooler on Thursday, depending on cloud cover, but still well above normal for the middle of February.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026

With high pressure overhead, VFR conditions should prevail with some mid level ceilings expected this afternoon into the evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.