textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall, will continue at times today. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening to address the potential for localized flash flooding.

- Persistent cloud cover and occasional rainfall will keep temperatures cool today, with afternoon highs only reaching the mid-70s to near 80 degrees.

- Rain chances decrease significantly Monday through Thursday, becoming limited to isolated or scattered afternoon pop-up storms, with the highest probability remaining near the Tennessee border.

- A warming trend takes hold this week, with daily highs recovering into the lower to middle 80s on Monday, and reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 947 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026

At the onset of the long term period, strong upper level ridging will be centered over the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the remaining upper level low will become cut off from departing troughing over the northeastern CONUS, lingering over the Tennessee Valley into Tuesday. With a surface high over the Mid Atlantic region, surface winds are expected to be generally easterly to east northeasterly, ushering in marginally drier air. This, in addition to a decline in forcing, should work to suppress rain chances in most regions on Tuesday. The possible exception is near the KY/TN line in closer proximity to the low; here, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, although with such weak upper level flow, any storms that do form should trend towards typical summertime pulse convection. Any rain chances should diminish rather quickly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned low should fully depart our region as it retrogrades along the southern periphery of the upper level high. Concurrently, 500 mb heights could trend slightly higher going into Wednesday; however, there is still some uncertainty with this scenario, owing to model disagreement regarding the eastern extent of this ridging. The ridges position will depend on the extent of troughing over the Northeast, which could block the ridges eastward progression. As of now, the most likely outcome appears to be that eastern Kentucky finds itself on the eastern periphery of the ridge, with modest rain chances in the afternoon on Wednesday and Thursday. Similar to Tuesday, these storms should be typical isolated to perhaps scattered summertime convection, and again the best rain chances should be closer to the KY/TN line, with rain chances swiftly declining after sunset. With height rises aloft, afternoon high temperatures should also trend warmer, topping out in the upper 80s to perhaps the low 90s across the forecast area.

Looking ahead, model spread increases, but the general pattern will feature a digging trough over the Atlantic Coast. Eastern Kentucky will likely find itself caught between what remains of the ridge to the southwest and a trough axis to the east, leading to northwesterly flow aloft. This will allow a return to a more active pattern, with more widespread rain chances and marginally cooler temperatures going into the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026

The 06Z TAF period kicks off with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms lifting northeast toward IOB, JKL, and LNP. Reductions in flight categories are expected with this activity as it continues to move northeast, before eventually departing around and after daybreak. Uncertainty over timing and coverage exists again for Sunday midday/afternoon, though there is broad- based CAM agreement that another round of more numerous showers and thunderstorms are probable. Outside of any storms, winds will be variable at less than 10 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068- 069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.