textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure brings dry and cool early autumn weather into early next week.

- Warmer temperatures return from the middle to end of next week, along with our next reasonable potential for rain.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 514 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026

The start of this period is characterized by clear skies and quiet conditions with surface and upper level high pressure dominating. Ridge/valley splits Sunday Night still look likely with lows in the mid 40s in the valleys and low 50s on the ridge tops and some valley fog is also probable. Looking at the nationwide picture, an omega block will be setting up with two upper level lows/troughs near the east and west coasts and ridging/high pressure in the central US. This puts eastern KY in the eastern periphery of the ridging that will migrate east early next week. This will extend the dry and quiet weather until PoPs return mid to late next week. As the ridge moves eastward we will see a return of west to southwesterly flow allowing for a gradual warming trend starting on Monday. This warming will continue, with highs increasing each day until the upper 70s to mid 80s return around Wednesday. That west to southwesterly flow will also allow for increased moisture advection into the OH/TN Valleys, increasing humidity in the latter half of next week.

Unsettled weather is set to return with rain chances starting around Thursday. As the previously mentioned ridging moves through and eventually out of the area, the initial western upper level low will start to advance eastward as well. The trough is progged to slow down quite a bit in the central US with a southeast ridge likely being the culprit. Uncertainty exists in the evolution of this pattern and the subsequent rain chances for the region next week. But, the solutions that seems most plausible at this time is that as the core of the upper level slows down in the central US, some subtle shortwaves could eject and move downwind following the contour of the southeast ridge. This would put those shortwaves somewhere in the region starting in the mid-late next week timeframe. NBM and LREF show gradually increasing PoPs with a 50-55% chance of >.01" of rain by Friday. It is important to note that considerable uncertainty exists going into next weekend, but NBM and LREF do show PoPs increasing to 70-80% of >.01" of rain beyond the end of the 7 day period by later Sunday.

All in all, we are still on track to see temps increasing daily starting next week, with upper 70s to 80s returning around Wednesday. Low rain chances return as well starting around Thursday and then increase as we go into next weekend. The usual model uncertainties with a forecast this far out makes finer details about next week's rain chances hard to determine at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026

With high pressure in control, valley fog is expected to dissipate by 14Z. This will bring localized IFR or MVFR initially, but will not affect the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will hold through the period with passing high clouds from time to time. Valley fog should again affect some areas from 04Z to 12Z, but TAF sites should not be impacted.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.