textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as a cold front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times, which could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 619 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

Quick update sent out to raise Pops in the Lake Cumberland area for the next few hours given the current radar trends. This activity is expected to weaken rather shortly as it moves into a much more stable environment after passing Lake Cumberland, where MLCAPE values are less than 500 J/kg. Otherwise, the latest hourly temperatures were updated using the observations from the last hour as the initialization to the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 318 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

Model suites are in reasonable agreement for much of the long term period. The beginning of the period will feature a weaker upper level shortwave that will progress across the Ohio Valley. This weaker wave will keep shower and thunderstorm chances going in the first part of the weekend. Given the weak shear and increased PWAT values in the 1.75 to nearly 2 inch range, we could see a renewed threat of heavy rain given the increasing moisture and slow storm motions. Given this, WPC does keep us in a isolated risk of flash flooding on Saturday. Then by Sunday the previous wave dampens as it progresses out of the area. The lower Ohio Valley will then see heights begin to rise in the wake. This will lead to isolated convection Sunday, mainly confined to the higher terrain given the lack of synoptic scale forcing.

As we move into the beginning of the work week and into mid-week, we will see upper-level ridging become further established across the Southeast US. This ridging will be quite strong for this time of year, running above the 90th percentile. This will usher in mostly dry weather Monday into Tuesday, but with that will come warmer temperatures. The warmest day right now is expected to be Tuesday, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Then by Wednesday into Thursday this ridging will start to breakdown and a cold front will progress across the Ohio Valley. There has been some timing differences with this boundary within the various model suites that will need to be resolved, but overall expect increasing chances of showers and Thunderstorms by late next week. Than Some of the guidance shows this boundary could usher in some much dryer and cooler weather by late in the week into next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 753PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

Generally deteriorating conditions from VFR/MVFR to MVFR/IFR or lower are expected through the overnight as a mix of low clouds and fog develop across the area within a widespread weak warm advection environment. This TAF update removes any mention of thunderstorms through the overnight period at the terminals, with light rain/shower activity likely redeveloping at times as a disturbance approaches from the west through Friday morning. The potential for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms returns during the afternoon Friday as even minimal instability will help to refire convection upstream and over the area, with confidence too low to include anything but PROB30 groups at any specific terminal at this time.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.