textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper system is producing widespread and some impactful accumulating snow this morning for much of the area but is looking to taper off after sunrise.

- A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Montgomery and Bath counties, while Winter Weather Advisories continue for the rest of eastern Kentucky.

- Another light to moderate snowfall is increasingly likely Saturday night and early Sunday, mainly north of the Mountain Parkway.

- An arctic airmass with significantly below normal temperatures moves into our region for Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 316 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025

The forecast period commences with the passage of the third and final Alberta clipper through the Ohio Valley. This well-defined shortwave trough is projected to track eastward through the Ohio Valley before ejecting northeastward toward New England. Consistent with previous model iterations, significant changes have not occurred with respect to the temporal and spatial evolution of this rapidly propagating feature. As this system translates southeastward across the Ohio Valley, the PoP will increase, but the northerly trajectory of the low-pressure center remains consistent. This track is favorable for the heaviest precipitation and snow accumulation to remain north of the CWA, mainly focusing along the Ohio River. Model uncertainty remains subtle, with minor north-south oscillations in the track evident in successive model runs. Such small-scale track adjustments would have notable implications for projected snowfall totals, the precise placement of the freezing line, and the distribution of frozen versus liquid precipitation. Nonetheless, the greatest snow accumulations are forecast to occur outside and north of the CWA. Within the CWA, a Winter Weather Advisory criterion is anticipated to be met for locations generally along and north of a line extending from Powell to Pike Counties through Sunday morning.

Lingering stratiform snow showers and flurries will be possible through the day on Sunday. However, forecast emphasis shifts rapidly to the arrival of unseasonably cold temperatures following the passage of the Arctic front. Synoptically, surface high pressure will rapidly build into the region in the wake of the departing low- pressure system. Correspondingly, upper-level northwesterly flow will facilitate the CAA of the coldest air mass of the season thus far through the early portion of the succeeding week. Maximum temperatures on Sunday are projected to range from the mid-teens Fahrenheit across the northern extent of the CWA to the mid-20s Fahrenheit nearer the Tennessee border. Overnight minimum temperatures will be substantially colder, particularly for the Sunday night/Monday morning period. The confluence of factors including sustained CAA, radiational cooling under clear skies, and residual snow cover will allow minimum temperatures to fall into the negative single digits Fahrenheit (primarily in the Bluegrass region and sheltered valley locations) to positive single digits Fahrenheit elsewhere. Mid-level flow is forecast to shift from a northwesterly to a southwesterly component beginning Monday, which will induce a gradual warming trend anticipated by the middle of next week, ahead of the next significant synoptic-scale system approaching the region near the end of the forecast period.

Predominantly quasi-zonal flow will persist across the region through much of the upcoming week. This pattern is forecast to undergo trough amplification commencing Thursday morning as a shortwave trough develops rapidly off the Rockies and quickly traverses the CONUS. This trough will lead to increasing PoP through the day on Thursday. In conjunction with increasing precipitation potential, surface winds are forecast to become strong, with LREF probabilities indicating a widespread 50 to 60 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 miles per hour (mph) in advance of Thursdays frontal passage. Winds will subsequently diminish behind the front, but residual rain showers are anticipated to linger through the end of the forecast period.

In summation, an Alberta clipper system is forecast to bring light snow accumulations to areas generally north of the Mountain Parkway from Saturday night into Sunday. Strong post-frontal surface high pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on Sunday, driving minimum temperatures down into the upper single digits and mid-teens Fahrenheit. A gradual warming trend will commence on Monday, but the next significant system will arrive late in the week, bringing rain and strong winds.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025

Snow producing IFR or lower conditions will gradually move northeast with time, stalling across the northern half of the area through much of the rest of the overnight into the Friday morning period. The worst conditions are anticipated over the northeastern half of the CWA, including JKL, SJS, and SYM. The precipitation will be of shorter duration near Lake Cumberland, where snow will have mostly ended by 12z at SME and LOZ. Light winds are expected through the period. As precipitation moves north with the passing warm front tonight and especially into Friday, locations to the south of the front, especially with snow on the ground, will likely see some visibility reductions in fog or haze.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044- 052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ050-051.