textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the upcoming holiday weekend.

- The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from developing and ongoing drought conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 1017 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026

Another very warm late spring day is underway across eastern Kentucky with temperatures already in the 70s to around 80F on their way to around 90F. Some isolated convection is still possible near and west of the Pottsville Escarpment this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, only minor revisions were made to bring T/Td/Sky forecast into line with hourly observations.

UPDATE Issued at 628 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026

An update is out with minor revisions to hourly Sky and PoPs through this evening based on observed and model trends. Also updated latest hourly T/Td/Sky grids.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026

If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay. This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday will struggle to continue it's forward momentum through into the Mid- Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it's currently poised to stall over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic) Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as a warm front on Friday.

This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate (maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out. This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will likely be beneficial.

Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered - so it's good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin another warming trend accordingly. The NBM's highs on in the upper 70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this continues to trend as we move forward in time.

Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it's max. Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state, if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will be in the 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours, but will begin to deteriorate gradually from the northwest through the period with the approach of a cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms. Look for some cumulus to again develop this afternoon between 4 and 6 kft agl. PROB30 groups have been added to account for the low potential for showers and thunderstorms until after 06z tonight, when some sites go to prevailing showers.

Light and variable winds will pick up out of the southwest over the next few hours with increasing daytime heating. Winds will increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 12 kts again with some gusts up to 20 kts for this afternoon, highest at KSYM and KIOB. These winds will diminish near sunset, but more exposed sites will keep a light southwest wind around 5 kts or so.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.