textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend continues through Sunday, with highs returning to near to a few degrees above normal.

- Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase to end the weekend, followed by additional chances at midweek.

- Frost is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning in deeper valleys and hollows - mainly away from mainstem rivers.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026

Weak radar returns associated with passing disturbance are working across parts of central KY and western portions of the area. Sprinkles were reaching the ground from these per upstream obs at LEX and others. The previous pops had this scenario handled. Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 458 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026

The long term period begins amid a period of active weather. Aloft, a longwave trough will rest over the northeastern quadrant of North America, placing the forecast area just east of the trough axis Sunday night. At the surface, a cold front will extend south through Kentucky, trailing from a fairly vertically stacked low pressure system located over the southern Hudson Bay. As this front translates eastward with time, showers will be likely throughout the forecast area. A narrow corridor of instability will be present ahead of the front, which may support a few rumbles of thunder; however, given that the majority of precipitation will fall overnight, instability will likely be meager and thus severe weather is not anticipated. The main impact of this frontal passage will be an additional round of much- needed rain. LREF guidance shows PWAT values exceeding 1 inch are likely, albeit with a slightly drier trend than yesterdays guidance due to indications of less robust moisture return ahead of the front. Still, median LREF QPF for this system remains around 0.2 for most of the forecast area, demonstrating that appreciable rain will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

Following the frontal passage, skies will clear by Monday afternoon as the upper level trough axis passes and high pressure begins to build. Despite this clearing trend, CAA via northerly postfrontal winds will keep highs below average, with maximum temperatures reaching only the mid to upper 60s on Monday afternoon. Overnight, clear skies and building high pressure will allow for efficient radiational cooling and ideal conditions for a ridge-valley temperature split. MOS guidance is hinting that some of our cooler valley locations could fall into the 30s, which is reflected in the current temperature grids for Monday night. However, the magnitude of cooling and its impacts will depend on dewpoints leading into the overnight hours. Currently, dewpoints in the mid 30s appear most likely, which would lead to valley fog (an outcome supported by recent precipitation) and perhaps isolated incidents of frost outside of river valleys. However, although it is presently a less favored outcome, a drier frontal passage with lower than expected dewpoints could increase the risk of frost in sheltered areas. Regardless, despite a cold morning, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure prevails.

The next period of active weather arrives Wednesday as another cold front approaches the forecast area. With the original longwave trough now well east of the CONUS, a second trough will push into the Great Lakes region, bringing enhanced vorticity advection to Kentucky as the trough axis passes over the forecast area. At the surface, a cold front will extend down from a corresponding surface low. The exact position of these features remains uncertain this far out, but rain appears likely on Wednesday. Given limited moisture return ahead of the front, dewpoints will likely be relatively marginal; however, with temperatures rising into the mid 70s, very marginal but nonzero instability could again support a few rumbles of thunder with this activity. This front and its associated precipitation will likely clear out by Wednesday night, with high pressure building in behind this system. Consequently, most clear or sunny weather and relatively seasonable temperatures will prevail for the rest of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold through the TAF period, with one caveat. That would be valley fog at non TAF site locations after 03Z. Otherwise, mid and high clouds will be prevalent through 20Z. Some low clouds near 5kft agl and producing isolated light showers or sprinkles, but no reductions in below VFR are possible through about 18Z. Winds will be light and variable or south to southwest at less than 10 kts through 14Z, before becoming more westerly at 10KT or less, though some gusts as high as 15 to 20KT are possible during peak heating. Winds slacken during the last 6 hours of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.