textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A passing storm system to our south will bring a chance of rain to portions of eastern Kentucky tonight into Saturday. - Temperatures will average near to slightly below normal through this weekend and then trend above normal next week.

- Dry weather will hold on through Tuesday, before rain chances return.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 351 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026

The long wave pattern starts out amplified, with a broad trough over the eastern third of the nation, sharper ridging positioned over the Rockies, and deeper troughing seen over the eastern Pacific. The flow becomes more zonal across the CONUS into early next week as the eastern trough pivots away over the western Atlantic while troughing closes in on the West Coast. The Rockies ridge will dampen in between as it translates east with time. By the middle of next week, amplification occurs once again, as eastern inbound Pacific energy reloads. A southern stream cutoff low will likely emerge along the California Coast. This feature will eventually eject east, although models differ in timing and the evolution of this system. Meanwhile, deeper and progressive northern stream energy will invade the West.

Dry weather will close out the weekend across eastern Kentucky, as high pressure gradually settles within the Ohio Valley. Clearing skies and calming winds Saturday night should allow for a chilly night across the Coalfields, with some upper teens a good bet in the typically colder hollows in the north, with low to mid 20s expected elsewhere. Below normal temperatures will continue on Sunday, with highs ranging from the upper 30s north of I-64, to the mid 40s in the Cumberland Valley. Surface winds will veer around to the southeast Sunday night, with a quick-moving weaker short wave trough providing some higher clouds. Still, lows will return to the mid to upper 20s.

A warming trend will then ensue into next week, with highs back well into the 50s on Monday. By Thursday, highs will be in the low to mid 60s. Dry weather will hold through Tuesday, before a passing cold front provides rain chances Tuesday night. This boundary will then stall in the vicinity of the Commonwealth through the middle of next week. Better moisture transport will be inevitable as the southern stream short wave and its surface low counterpart move into the southern Plains, and then the middle Mississippi Valley. Rain chances are held in the chance category for now, given the uncertainty in the timing.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 625 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026

All sites minus KSYM are currently VFR as clear skies exist over eastern Kentucky. KSYM is MVFR but will slowly improve to VFR this afternoon. Guidance suggests that passing low clouds could cause a reduction in category at KSYM and KSJS but confidence is low on that scenario but there's still a small chance. Should it happen, upper-end MVFR is to be expected. A passing surface low could bring PROB30 rain showers to KLOZ and KSME overnight tonight after 06Z and continuing through approximately 11Z. Lastly, winds are forecast to be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.