textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will affect most of the area at times into Sunday evening.

- A few wind gusts near 40 mph will be possible across high terrain near the VA border into this evening.

- Warm and mainly dry weather will dominate the early part of the new work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 921 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026

Showers and bands of light to occasionally moderate rain continue to stream northward on the eastern side of the remnants of Isaias. This activity has been most persistent and widespread near/east of US-23. These rounds of rainfall should continue through the overnight with the most extensive activity generally over the eastern half of the JKL CWA. The rainfall should generally be light and intermittent enough to avoid hydro concerns.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 349 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026

The extended period opens Monday morning with the remnant low from Isaias departing the area towards the northeast into the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England. A few residual light showers across the far eastern fringes of the Jackson CWA early Monday morning gives way to a strong upper-level ridge. An unseasonably warm and dry start to the extended forecast period across eastern Kentucky will yield to an active weather pattern by mid-week, marked by a strong cold front, rising precipitation chances, and a sharp autumn cool- down for the weekend.

The strong upper-level ridge centered across the Central US and Ohio Valley, keeps eastern Kentucky under subsidence with decreasing clouds through the day. 500 mb heights running in the 80th to 95th percentile for mid-October will push daytime temperatures well above seasonal normals through Thursday, generally ranging 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s. Tuesdays forecast high temperature of 82 at the JKL airport is within 2 degrees of the established record high of 84, set back in 1985. In fact, the 00Z LREF ensemble shows a 35 to 40 percent chance of reaching 84 degrees.

Model soundings from Monday and Tuesday afternoons show steep low-level lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb with a pronounced dry layer above the boundary layer. To account for this boundary layer mixing, raw model guidance was blended with the deterministic NBM to slightly lower dew points both afternoons. Through the day Tuesday, the pressure gradient across the area increases ahead of an approaching system from the Central Plains. This increased gradient could lead to breezy conditions in the Bluegrass and areas along and west of I-75 Tuesday afternoon, where wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are possible. While warm, dry, and a little breezy, fire weather should not be of too much concern as min RH remains in the upper 30s to mid 40s through the day.

High pressure anchored off the Southeast coast will maintain warm advection through mid-week. However, a weak surface boundary sagging south across the Ohio Valley will bring low-end rain chances to eastern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A more significant pattern shift occurs Thursday as a cut-off low over the Four Corners ejects northeastward toward the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As the boundary lifts back north as a warm front, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will tap directly into Gulf moisture, advecting some across the Commonwealth. Model and ensemble agreement begins to drop toward the second half of the extended period. It will be interesting to see how this cutoff low from the Four Corners interacts with the northern stream as it approaches the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday onward. Due to the uncertainty, the NBM deterministic has maintained smoothed-out isolated to scattered PoPs across the area Thursday and Friday. Some ensembles are showing PWATs across eastern Kentucky climbing from around 1.0 inch early Thursday to 1.4 inches by Thursday evening and Friday morning - representing an anomalous moisture plume near the 90th percentile for mid- October. While the present forecast doesn't have heavy rainfall due to model uncertainty, the anomalous moisture plume in some ensembles hints that heavy rainfall near the end of the week remains a possibility.

A cold front associated with this late-week system could pass through eastern Kentucky during the day Friday. Behind the front, cold, dry continental polar air is modeled to intrude into the Ohio Valley Friday evening and Saturday. PWAT steadily falls through Saturday, modeled by some as low as 0.2 to 0.4 inches. Temperatures that were once 5 to 10 degrees above normal could swing 5 to 10 degrees below normal by next Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 802 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026

Intermittent rain was falling along and east of the US-23 corridor at start of the 00Z TAF period with only isolated showers further west. Ceilings were mainly VFR, though a few instances of MVFR were also being reported. Winds were generally easterly, and gusty to between 15 and 25 kts in some spots, though most locations were seeing lighter winds.

A strong easterly low-level jet will be over the area tonight as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias impact the area, but low-level stability should keep most of the momentum from mixing down. That will mean continued sustained easterly winds at around 10 kts or less with only occasional higher gusts for most terminals. Multiple rounds of showers are also expected with thunder possible. Ceilings should generally remain VFR to start the night but will gradually deteriorate to IFR/LIFR on Sunday as low-level winds veer from easterly downslope to southwesterly.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ087-088-118.