textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow accumulations are possible behind a cold frontal passage on Sunday Night/Monday Morning.

- Southwesterly winds will become gusty on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a stronger mid-week system.

- The pattern remains active next week, although confidence remains low in each passing system's precipitation type forecast.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

To start the new work-week, Monday will start off with snow showers, expected to taper off through afternoon. The region will be under light northerly flow through the day, with occasional northwest flow. While northwesterly flow is most favorable for upslope snows, the more northerly winds should limit orographically enhanced snows. That said, a couple tenths of snow is currently expected along and south of the Mountain Parkway, with highest totals possible across the far southeastern most counties. Temperatures Monday will generally remain in the 30s, with regional ranges from the low 30s across NE Kentucky, to upper 30s across the south. A trough axis will pass through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the day leading to clearing skies and variable winds Monday evening. Temperatures overnight are likely to drop into the teens and low 20s for sheltered valleys, and mid 20s for ridge-tops.

Tuesday, Eastern Kentucky looks to be under zonal flow, with quiet weather across the area. Temperatures are expected to rebound into the lower 40s across the north and upper 40s, approaching 50 across the south. Overnight, temperatures benefit from increasing cloud cover ahead of the next approaching system, dropping into the mid to upper 30s. Speaking of the next system, models and ensembles are in agreement on a trough approaching the area Tuesday overnight out of the northwest.

By day-break Wednesday, They'll be a slight chance of showers. Rain shower chances slowly spread south across the day and increase in coverage as this trough deepens and progresses across the area. A tightening pressure gradient with this system will lead to breezy to gusty winds during the day. At current, the 00Z data of the ENS, a member of the LREF ensemble, suggests that there is a 25-40% chance of wind gusts reaching wind advisory criteria (40-57 mph for any duration). This is the third run of the LREF showing the gusty wind potential, with each runs probabilities increasing. Given the time of year it should be mentioned that winds of this magnitude are likely to blow any unsecured holiday decorations. With strong southwesterly winds through the day temperatures could rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s before dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s at night.

Active weather looks to continue Thursday and beyond, with a series of systems approaching the Greater Ohio River Valley one after another. Periods of rain and snow are likely to accompany these systems however the uncertainty int track, timing, and evolution in each make it increasingly challenging and subject to change with new data. There is however a bigger overall signal of cooler weather towards the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

Continued low CIGS will impact TAF sites through the period. Looking at current satellite imagery, there's an MVFR stratus deck building eastward from central Kentucky and will soon start to impact KSME (which is currently VFR) and eventually KLOZ. The other remain sites have been up and down through the morning due to lingering stratus or passing mid-level clouds. The overall trend is that the stratus deck will continue to shift eastward through the afternoon before stalling out overnight. Where this stalls out will depend which terminals move to VFR or remain MVFR through the remainder of the period. The forecast has KSME, KLOZ and KSYM remaining MVFR with KJKL and KSJS moving into VFR. Aside from pesky clouds, light and variable winds are forecast through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.