textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cool and dry air mass lingers through the start of the week. - Frost is expected in valley locales early this morning, with freezing temperatures possible in the most sheltered and shaded hollows. - Rain chances return for the area starting on Wednesday evening through Friday morning accompanying a potent weather system that will pass through the area and strengthen to our east.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much colder air moves into eastern Kentucky on the back side of that system.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM EST MON NOV 9 2026

The extended period starts Tuesday night with dry weather, conditions that will persist through the better part of Wednesday. Synoptically, split flow exists to open the period, with the northern jet stream near the US-Canada border and the sub-tropical jet across Mexico and the Gulf Coast. A strong upper-level cyclone will be parked off the Pacific Northwest coast, while a ridge builds downstream over the Rockies and Intermountain West. Multiple shortwaves are modeled downstream of this ridge, embedded in the northern branch, the most prominent over Manitoba, North Dakota, and Wyoming. Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity, centered across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valleys. Mostly clear skies and light winds will favor strong nocturnal radiational cooling and decoupling. Blended hi-res models with the NBM, then added local effects to enhance realistic ridge-valley temperature splits, yielding sheltered valley lows in the mid to upper 30s while thermal-belt ridges hover in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Patchy frost will be possible in the colder hollows, with river valley fog developing overnight.

As previously mentioned, a vigorous northern-stream shortwave diving out of Manitoba into the Ohio Valley will carve out a deep, anomalous longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS by mid-week. Southwest flow ahead of this wave will advect warm air into eastern Kentucky, boosting Wednesday afternoon highs into the mid to upper 60s (5 to 10 degrees above normal). An attendant cold front will sweep across the Commonwealth late Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing increasing cloud cover and scattered to widespread rain showers. High temperatures Thursday - currently forecast in the mid to upper 50s - may be too ambitious. A non-diurnal temperature curve is increasingly likely, with highs achieved around or shortly after daybreak followed by falling or steady temperatures through the afternoon under moderate cold air advection.

The core of the upper trough will pivot just north of the region Thursday into Friday, pushing 500 mb heights below the 5th climatological percentile and ushering in a brisk Canadian air mass on breezy northwest winds. Afternoon temperatures on Friday and Saturday will struggle to climb out of the 40s, with overnight readings tumbling into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Lingering post-frontal and upslope showers could mix with or transition to the first flurries of the season across the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky Thursday night into Friday, and again Friday night, before surface high pressure restores dry conditions for next weekend on through Monday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST MON NOV 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the duration of the 06Z TAF period. Current satellite imagery shows clear skies in place over the bulk of the Ohio Valley, and area observations indicate light to calm winds. These benign conditions will persist, although river valley fog is anticipated to develop again early this morning, but confidence remains too low to mention in any of the TAFS. Aside from any localized fog-related impacts, VFR conditions will continue through the day, with mostly clear skies and light west winds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.