textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures should warm back up to the upper 80s and lower 90s by the end of the work week. - Dry conditions remain in place through Saturday afternoon, but a pattern shift will bring daily shower and thunderstorm chances to the region for Saturday night and beyond.

UPDATE

Issued at 728 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

No significant changes made to to forecast aside from loading in the latest surface obs and cleaning up the PoP grids based on the latest radar trends. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 410 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

The first half of the long term forecast period remains squarely under the influence of the dominant SE CONUS ridging, but that pattern looks to break down later this weekend. As troughing digs into the greater Ohio River Valley on Saturday, the antecedent ridging gets shunted further to the south. Kentucky looks to be positioned just to the south of the aforementioned trough axis's apex, which suggests that a brief period of deeper west- southwesterly flow and better moisture return is possible before split/quasi-zonal flow sets early next week. A Rex Block feature will have emerged upstream over the Great Plains by then, thus allowing the weather pattern to stagnate here in the commonwealth. The evolution of that block is difficult to pinpoint at the current temporal range, but confidence is high that rain chances will be higher at the end of the long term period than they were at the beginning.

The initial ridging pattern favors efficient diurnal processes and warm/dry sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky. Expect mostly clear skies to foster efficient diurnal mixing, with overnight ridge/valley temperature splits probable. After widespread afternoon highs in the 80s on Thursday, sheltered and shaded valleys should cool to the 50s after sunset. Given antecedent afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, nocturnal radiation fog is poised to develop in valley locales with a nearby water source. Fog coverage should be less widespread than it was in the near term period though, as the previous days' warm and sunny weather will culminate in drying soils. Once the valley fog burns off on Friday morning, temperatures are forecast to quickly rise to a few degrees warmer than they were the day prior. Forecast guidance collectively depicts rising midlevel heights and 850mb temperatures warming to the 15-20 degrees Celsius range by the end of the work week. With the surface high centered directly over the Southern Apps, surface winds will adopt more of a southerly component. The resultant downsloping and diurnal mixing should dry the lower levels of the column out. Baseline NBM data suggests that SE portions of the forecast area could warm into the lower 90s on Friday afternoon, and this seems reasonable given all of the above.

Temperatures should remain in the 80s for the rest of the forecast period, but the renewed proximity to upper level troughing and increased moisture return will introduce cloud cover and PoPs to the rest of the forecast period. Most of the forecast area should stay dry on Saturday afternoon, but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out by sunset in the Bluegrass. The better rain chances arrive overnight into Sunday, but the positive tilt of the parent troughing aloft and the displacement of the better forcing/dynamics should preclude any significant severe weather risk. Likewise, the early- period dryness will mitigate the risk of widespread hydrological impacts. The stagnation of the pattern will keep shower and storm chances in the forecast through early next week, but these are likely to be isolated/scattered and diurnal in nature. No particular day looks like a complete washout, as is typical for such early- summer weather patterns here in Eastern Kentucky.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

VFR TAFs are expected through the 00Z TAF window as surface high pressure builds into region. River valley fog is forecast to develop overnight and should steer clear of TAF sites. Otherwise, light and variable winds and mostly clear skies are expected.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.