textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds just above the surface are expected late this evening into early Thursday. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are are probable and could be stronger near and north of I-64.

- Storm chances return tonight to Thursday night. Some storms could approach severe limits late tonight north of the Mtn Pkwy, and across all of eastern KY on Thursday. - The primary threat from storms late tonight and Thursday will be damaging wind gusts. Isolated flash flooding is also possible should locations receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 1125 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 720 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between systems at the moment with an approaching cold front to the northwest and a more stationary one to the southeast. This has left much of the area cloud free, though there is a thicker batch in the northwest tier starting to settle into the JKL CWA along with a few light showers generally north and west of the area. Expect dry weather to win out for most of the area with this first batch of showers producing mainly just some sprinkles. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 70s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph and a few higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the comfortable low to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and tweak the minor PoPs overnight per the most recent radar returns and CAMs guidance. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 318 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026

The long-term period opens Thursday morning with a complicated weather pattern unfolding across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and adjacent regions. The 16/12Z model suite analysis shows, with high confidence, a deep late-season upper-level trough over Central and Eastern Canada with a potent shortwave pivoting over the Great Lakes and broad cyclonic flow on the southern fringes of the upper-level trough extending across the Lower Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. Meanwhile, a tropical low will be sluggishly drifting along the Central Gulf Coast. Between these features, the cold front responsible for the decaying late Wednesday and early Thursday morning squall line (the boundary itself trailing from an ~990 mb surface low over Lower Ontario) will likely extend from northeast to southwest, roughly along the main stem of the Ohio River.

Through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night, the aforementioned surface low will drift over southern Quebec and eventually start to weaken after reaching its max depth. North of this boundary, an unseasonably strong 250 hPa jet with transient jet streaks will provide upper-level divergence while the cold front itself slows to a crawl, oriented nearly parallel with deep unidirectional WSW-ENE-oriented flow. The final wild card remains to what degree the tropical system and its associated copious moisture interact with the frontal boundary. The broad consensus among the model data suggests there is potential for training convection to develop along the nearly stationary cold front for a time on Thursday and Thursday evening, probably south of I-64, but the duration and intensity remain quite uncertain. Longer-range CAMs such as the experimental MPAS RRFS offer solutions where localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall totals occur while other solutions suggest a mere tenth or two will occur. The blended QPF guidance for the entire event has remained relatively conservative on this forecast issuance, ranging from 0.6 to 1.4 inches and representing a reasonable but low confidence middle ground solution.

The threat for flooding as well as severe weather appears quite conditional upon the ability of the deep tropical moisture to extend sufficiently northward into the Ohio Valley while also coinciding with better destabilization -- all dependent upon an overall more northward propagation of the tropical system/associated moisture and slower progress of the incoming cold front. Though there are many moving parts, this concerning potential combination of a stalling front with adjacent upper-level support in tandem with a surge of deep tropical moisture warrants keeping all eyes focused on this system. Hopefully, confidence in overall impacts will increase in the coming 12 to 24 hours as we move into the range of the full operational HREF CAM suite and receive better overall sampling of both systems. On a positive note, the dry D1 to D3 drought conditions for nearly all locations south of I-64, plus most rivers and streams flowing at the 5th to 25th percentile for this time of year, and high FFGs (2.0 to 3.0 inches in 1 hour and 2.5 to 3.5 inches in 3 hours) all suggest rainfall amounts would need to be toward or in excess of the higher end of modeled QPF guidance for any widespread flooding impacts to occur outside of urban areas. Urban flooding is of greater concern if substantial training occurs over larger communities where surfaces tend to be largely impervious regardless of drought or streamflow status.

As the tropical remnants press east toward the Southeast Atlantic seaboard Thursday night, a shortwave trough embedded within the broader cyclonic flow aloft will move into the Ohio Valley and provide a decisive southeastward shove to the stalled cold front and associated rainfall. In its wake, LREF mean 850 hPa temperatures dip into the 12 to 14C range for Friday and Friday night with dew points slipping back into the 50s. This will set the stage for a pleasant first half of the weekend. Guidance then diverges heading into the second half of the weekend as another low pressure system approaches our region with a warm front and subsequent cold front. In general, this will set the stage for a return of more warm, humid conditions (at least briefly) and also for multiple rounds of rainfall.

In sensible terms, expect strong environmental winds to subside on Thursday morning though remaining breezy throughout the day with gusts of 20 to 30 mph commonplace. It will also be quite muggy with a threat of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, though likely becoming more focused on southeastern Kentucky with time. Look for high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. There is a possibility for at least isolated severe storms and flash flooding though the extent is uncertain. Cooler and drier conditions follow by Friday with much lower humidity levels and temperatures in the 70s to around 80F. Saturday looks to be the pick of the weekend with mostly clear conditions and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Unsettled weather then returns for early next week with briefly warmer and more humid weather, potentially followed by a return to drier and cooler conditions by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

VFR conditions were reported to the TAF sites at issuance time period with a few patches of mid and high clouds crossing the area. Valley fog has also likely formed south of the Mtn Pkwy, but the TAF sites are not affect. Reductions to MVFR or IFR in this could affect some areas through around 12Z before any fog lifts and dissipates. A cold front will near the OH River early in the period before lifting back north as a warm front as low pressure moving from the Plains tracks across sections of the midwest and across the western and into the central Great Lakes during the TAF period. Winds will initially be light and variable, before picking up into the 7 to 14KT range after about 15Z with some gusts into the 20 to 25KT range. Winds may increase a bit more during the last 6 hours of the period as winds aloft ahead of the low pressure system also increase. Gusts during that time could reach the 20 to 30KT range at times. The increasing winds aloft could also result in a LLWS threat in some areas late.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.