textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the week.

- There is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms into the weekend, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility through the next 7 days, with a threat of at least isolated flash flooding each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 930 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

The Dense Fog Advisory has been allowed to expire, with satellite imagery showing fog and low stratus burning off fairly rapidly. Primary update was to trend higher with Sky cover, utilizing more of a blend of models. Otherwise, updates to hourly T/Td grids were made in the near term, with the latest observations used to initialize the NDFD database.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

Almost a repeat of yesterday morning with a need for a Dense Fog Advisory, though it seems to be lifting to a stratus so may not be as much of a concern for valleys now. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These tweaks have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was to adjust spot specific Max and Min temps at several points though the area. Faster flow at mid levels and general troughing over the Ohio Valley will continue into the weekend and likely support an enhanced threat for heavy rain and localized flooding - particularly Friday and Saturday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West.

For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday.

Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

The fog and low stratus are affecting the majority of the TAF sites at the 12Z issuance with VLIFR conditions reported. This is expected to possibly convert to or merge with a low cloud deck before clearing out. VFR conditions then return until more showers/ thunderstorms develop after daytime heating builds. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions likely lingering later into the evening than the past couple of nights. Winds will be light and variable away from any storm.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.