textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures and dry weather will prevail through this evening.

- Temperatures moderate to a few degrees above normal for Monday and Tuesday, before below normal temperatures return to end the week.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from tonight through Saturday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

The forecast period begins Tuesday morning with the area starting dry, though a cold front will quickly approach the CWA. This setup is driven by a mid-level trough digging southeast from Canada into the northern CONUS, with an associated upper-level closed low settling over the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, the parent low-pressure center will track toward the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front oriented southwest across the central CONUS. While this front is forecast to move into the area Tuesday, the surface low appears to occlude. This will cause the front to lose forward momentum and stall across the region. This boundary will facilitate showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and serve as the focal point for an extended period of convection as weak surface waves ripple along the zone of baroclinicity.

In previous model runs, the Tuesday and Wednesday front was depicted as crossing through the area, followed by a second system on Thursday that brought widespread QPF exceeding 3.00 inches. In this afternoons model suite, the Tuesday and Wednesday system remains consistent; however, the secondary feature is progged to dive further south. This shift lowers total QPF to just over an inch across the Bluegrass, with amounts up to 2.00 inches possible near the Cumberland Basin and Tennessee border. The boundary is forecast to finally exit the area Thursday morning, ushering in a period of surface high pressure. This dry window will be short-lived, as another perturbation is progged to dive southeast toward the Commonwealth late Friday. This will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the forecast period.

Overall, the period is expected to be active as multiple perturbations ride along the stalled boundary from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday night. A brief reprieve from the precipitation is expected Friday, though this will be cut short by another potential system arriving for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the TAF period. An increase in mid and high clouds is anticipated with convection possible between 00Z and the end of the period as a disturbance approaches. These chances should peak between 06Z and 12Z. PROB30s continue to be included in the TAFs for the timeframes when probabilties of showers or a stray storm and potential MVFR reductions are highest. Winds should average southwest to south at less than 10KT through around 14Z, before becoming more southwesterly at 7to 13KT with gusts as high as about 20KT.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.