textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights is expected through the end of the week.

- The next possibility of rain is not until the start of next week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 335 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026

The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered off the southwest U.S coast, with an upper low centered in the Hudson Bay vicinity and a trough extending into the Upper MS Valley and parts of the Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure should extend from the Southern Appalachians into the Atlantic, while a sfc front in advance of troughing extending into the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes should extend into northern MI to the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a lingering frontal zone should extend across portions of the Gulf.

Wednesday to Thursday night, the upper low in Canada should become centered in portions of Quebec, while the associated shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Wednesday and Wednesday night and across portions of the OH Valley on Thursday. Further west, upper ridging should become centered in the Pacific to the west and southwest of Baja, with ridging continuing to extend into the western Conus. Downstream, by late Thursday night, a 500 mb trough axis is anticipated from Quebec into the eastern Great Lakes to Central to Southern Appalachians. Guidance generally also has a weak upper low in or near TX by Thursday night and guidance (especially GFS) also points toward possible tropical system formation potentially as early as this time frame or at least a sfc low somewhere in the central to southwestern Gulf. Sfc low pressure in advance of the upper low in Canada and its associated shortwave should move across the Great Lakes and Northeast, but the southern end will likely become ill-defined or diffuse as it approaches the OH Valley. A ridge of sfc high pressure should generally remain through this period in the southern to central Appalachians with a trend of 500 mb height rises over the northern portions of the Gulf states into the TN Valley and Southern Appalachians by later Thursday night.

For eastern KY, the pattern should favor a moderation in high temperatures from Wednesday to Thursday and a ridge/valley temperature split for Wednesday night and probably Thursday night as well. Overnight lows should tend to moderate as sfc dewpoints inch upward compared to earlier in the week, but valley fog should continue to be a feature each night with ridging generally dominating. The weakening front and passing shortwave could lead to a bit more cloud cover later Wednesday night into Thursday morning than currently reflected in sky grids.

Friday to Saturday night, a narrow upper ridge axis that shifts north is progged by recent GFS and ECMWF runs from the Carolinas across the southern Appalachians to near the confluence of the OH and TN Rivers for Friday to Friday night while an upper low becomes centered in the Arklatex vicinity by later Friday night or early Saturday. At that point, moisture should begin to or have spread to near the Gulf Coast or into the Gulf coast states and eventually north into the Southern Appalachians and TN Valley and possibly into the Lower OH Valley by later Saturday or Saturday night pending the evolution of a tropical system in the Gulf while the upper low may move to near the mid MS Valley vicinity by late Saturday night. Guidance has uncertainty with the strength of this system with the 12Z operational GFS run stronger than the 06Z GFS run or the last two operational ECMWF runs.

Across eastern KY this scenario would bring continued mild high temperatures and increasing cloud cover by Saturday or Saturday night into the end of the weekend and increasing moisture and the possible approach of the upper system into the OH Valley could result in showers by late Saturday night, though better chances appear to be early next week.

Sunday to Monday, the upper low or trough that much of the guidance has reaching the mid MS Valley late Sat night or early Sun and then tracks it across the OH Valley region though Sun night or Mon with upper ridging and height rises around or near the end of the period. As previously mentioned this leads to higher chances for showers to end the weekend, though model spread remains and how far north appreciable moisture gets may also change. This timeframe may be our next reasonable chance for measurable rainfall, but timing and amounts are highly uncertain.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026

Valley fog will affect the JKL forecast area overnight and early Tuesday, especially in southeast KY, bringing localized IFR or worse conditions. TAF sites are not forecast to be affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.