textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A widespread dry and fluffy snow event is expected Friday/Saturday, primarily near/south of the Mountain Parkway and over the Big Sandy River Basin. Greatest accumulations are expected near the KY-VA border.

- Cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a brief warming trend following early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1130 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as guiding the pickup in PoPs just south of the Mountain Parkway late tonight in line with the latest CAMs. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFS and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 750 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the north of the state being impinged on by the approach of low pressure coming out of the Southern Plains. This is starting to push a frontogenetic zone into the area resulting a narrow band where snow is expected to develop from west to east along it towards dawn - generally south of I-64. A few flurries will be possible ahead of that time from a mid level deck of clouds already in place over eastern Kentucky. Currently, temperatures are running in the low 20s north to near 30 degrees in the far south. Meanwhile, amid light north winds, dewpoints are generally in the upper single digits to mid teens throughout the area. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. We continue to watch the latest high resolution model data come in concerning a possible upgrade to a winter storm warning in the far southeast for this event.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 422 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

A snow event is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period for the southeast portion of the forecast area, but getting ready to wind down. A potent upper level low should pass just to our southwest and south on Saturday, with its associated surface development off the southeast coast. Models are still not in agreement concerning how quickly the deep moisture/precip associated with it pulls out, with the GFS slowest, NAM fastest, and the ECMWF in between. Have compromised and allowed for the advisory to run through Saturday morning, but that may end up being adjusted later.

Flurries or snow showers are then expected to persist or redevelop behind the departing system. An area of moisture currently over southeast Canada (oddly enough, associated with warm air advection from the north) is expected to drop south to the Ohio Valley by Saturday night as it is fading and becoming more shallow. With the aforementioned surface low exploding off the East Coast, our low level flow will become more upslope, and with very shallow instability present in the prime DGZ as the moisture arrives, a few flakes should fly. Think that it will be a relatively high probability of very minimal or unmeasurable precip.

The moisture fades later Saturday night or Sunday and surface ridging should build in from the west bringing decreasing clouds and slackening winds. This could set up for very cold temperatures Sunday night, especially for any valleys which can decouple. However, the ridge may already slip to our east by Monday morning, which would result in warm air advection returning, potentially with a significant pressure gradient ahead of the next cold front. This would limit low temps outside of the normally coldest eastern valleys. It also sets us up for temperatures to finally warm to the 30s on Monday. The cold front will be weakening, and even if it technically passes, a warming trend is likely to continue with all of the area expecting above freezing high temperatures by Tuesday.

At this point, models begin showing much more disagreement pointing to considerably uncertainty with how things evolve mid-late week. This pertains particularly to the timing and latitude of an upper trough transiting the eastern CONUS. That being the case, the model blended forecast which was used is likely to change.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THU JAN 29 2026

VFR conditions still are holding for the 06Z issuance time and should continue through the bulk of the night in spite of thickening and lowering cloud cover. A frontogenetically-forced band of light snow is on track to develop south of I-64 and generally the Mountain Parkway around daybreak Friday and impact terminals across all of southeastern Kentucky during the daylight hours with mainly not much worse than MVFR CIGs and VIS. Winds will generally be northeast to north at 5 kts or less tonight and Friday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Saturday for KYZ044- 050>052-068-069-079-080-083>085.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for KYZ058- 107-111.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 3 AM EST Saturday for KYZ068-069-079-080-083-084-109-112-114-119.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to noon EST Saturday for KYZ085>088-110-113-115>118-120.