textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances diminish from west to east this evening.

- Scattered snow showers and perhaps a few snow squalls are possible late tonight into tomorrow morning; these could lead to sudden visibility reductions and minor accumulations. - A cooler and drier airmass moves into the region tomorrow afternoon and persists into early next week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 530 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

While the early portions of the work week will be defined by drier sensible weather, the pattern looks to become more active by midweek. Monday's post-frontal surface high pressure system is expected to sink southward on Tuesday as a vigorous mid/upper level trough digs into the Upper Midwest. Temperatures are forecast to moderate through midweek, but models depict that trough's axis digging deep into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys by Thursday morning. This signals that a much colder airmass is poised to advect into the column behind the system's cold front, which should move through the commonwealth on Wednesday. Models continue to disagree on the magnitude of that cold air, but it appears that the next chances for winter precipitation in Eastern Kentucky will come in the Wednesday night to Thursday night time frame.

After a chilly Monday morning commute, temperatures are forecast to recover into the 40s on Monday afternoon. The proximity of the surface high and dry westerly flow aloft favor mostly sunny skies and efficient diurnal warming/radiative processes. A weak, passing disturbance aloft could introduce some high-level clouds on Monday evening, but this should not be enough to prevent ridge-valley splits from developing overnight. Monday night looks warmer than the prior night, but MinTs will still remain below freezing across the entire CWA. Ridgetops will wake up to low temperatures near 30 on Tuesday morning, with cooler valley locales seeing lows in the 20s. The surface high drifts south on Tuesday, returning low level flow to a southwesterly orientation. The resultant WAA will pump Tuesday's afternoon highs into the 50s, and cloud cover should increase on Tuesday night as modified Pacific moisture advects around the base of the digging midweek trough. Eastern Kentucky will be positioned firmly within the warm sector out ahead of this midweek system, and rain chances accordingly spread across from NW to SE across the region on Wednesday morning. As cold air arrives behind the boundary overnight, a changeover to snow is expected. Temperatures are forecast to struggle to warm much greater than the freezing point on Thursday. Post-frontal northwesterly flow will keep snow chances in the forecast, especially in areas along and east of the Pottsville Escarpment. QPF looks to be limited with this system, as the high over the Gulf Coast states should limit access to the more robust Gulf Moisture. Minor accumulations are currently in the forecast grids for much of the forecast area, but accumulations greater than one inch are currently relegated to places like Big Black Mountain that typically experience orographic lifting enhancements. The current ensemble probabilities for at least one inch of snow accumulation between Wednesday and Thursday nights only exceed 40% in the counties with higher terrain along the Virginia state line. However, these probabilities have generally ticked upwards towards the 20-30% range in other portions of the forecast area within this morning's forecast guidance suite. This upward trend is likely related to the potential for a closed low to develop at the base of the parent trough aloft. If that materialized in a manner similar to some of the 12z deterministic model runs, Eastern KY would be positioned on the cold side of a vertically-stacked cyclone tracking through the Appalachians. Such a solution favors greater accumulation potential, but deterministic snow accumulation output will likely be bouncy from run to run. So, trends in the aforementioned ensemble probabilities will need to be monitored closely for further increases in the coming days.

After the parent troughing ejects off to the NE, shortwave ridging should briefly build back into the region and yield drier conditions. Some degree of late-week thermal moderation is possible before the next trough digs into the Upper Midwest at the very end of the forecast period. However, increasing late-week model spread and compounding forecast uncertainty currently preclude the mention of specific forecast details towards the end of the long term period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026

For the most part the TAF terminals across eastern Kentucky at the 18Z TAF issuance have returned to VFR. This lull will be brief as another round of showers can be expected, attending a cold front, crosses from west to east between 19Z and 03Z. Mainly MVFR or worse conditions can then be expected for most of the period, though there is a decent chance of clearing during that overnight period before yet another front brings the potential of snow squalls and times of low visibility Sunday morning. Light and variable winds increase out of the southwest this afternoon ahead of the first frontal passage, then become gusty out of the west to northwest behind it staying brisk and blustery through much of the day, Sunday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.