textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain transitions to snow showers by early this evening as a pair of cold fronts cross the region. Expect a sharp drop in temperatures behind the second front.

- Snow showers and brief squalls tonight may cause sudden, low visibility and slick roads this evening into Thursday morning. Accumulations of one inch or less are likely for most, with higher amounts in the mountains.

- More persistent snow showers yielding one to two inches of accumulation are expected in Pike, Harlan, and Letcher counties through Thursday morning. Totals of three to seven inches are possible on Big Black Mountain.

- Additional light snow is possible Friday through the weekend as more waves of arctic air move into the area.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 216 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026

The forecast period begins with transitory quasi-zonal flow and slight ridging between two shortwave troughs. The leading trough is expected to shift east as the subsequent trough digs southeastward through the central CONUS. A closed circulation, positioned within the left exit region of an embedded jet streak, will support a surface low over the western Great Lakes. Through Friday, this feature will eject eastward, dragging a cold front toward the region.

Initial forecast soundings indicate profiles cold enough for snow; however, diurnal warming and low-level southwesterly flow should maintain rain at the onset. As temperatures fall and flow veers westerly Friday night into Saturday, the thermal profile will cool sufficiently to support a transition to snow. Fortunately, the lack of a prominent warm nose or significant warm-air intrusion simplifies precipitation types, resulting in a transition from rain to a rain-snow mix, and finally to all snow by Saturday morning. Light snow showers will persist through Saturday, with minor accumulations likely. While an SPS may suffice for most areas, a Winter Weather Advisory may be required for the higher terrain along the Virginia border.

As the system departs late Sunday, cold surface high pressure will build into the region, ushering in more seasonal temperatures through the end of the period. While the extended forecast remains largely quiet for eastern Kentucky, deterministic guidance suggests a Noreaster will develop and phase with the primary system off the North Carolina coast on Sunday. In the wake of this circulation, brief southwesterly flow will allow for a slight recovery in temperatures on Monday. However, a disturbance tracking through the Great Lakes late Monday into Tuesday will shunt the coastal system further out to sea and bring a resurgence of cold, dry air for the remainder of the week.

Overall, the active period features a series of passing disturbances followed by a return to seasonal averages. The initial system will bring rain Friday before transitioning to light accumulating snow. Behind this departing low, surface high pressure will dominate, maintaining dry and seasonal conditions through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026

VFR conditions will gradually lower to MVFR conditions in areas of stratiform rain, with possible IFR conditions through the late afternoon and/or early evening as rain changes over to convective snow showers (or squalls) before gradually improving to VFR or MVFR conditions for most terminals as dry air moves into the area from the northwest after 02z-03z. Generally low-VFR or perhaps MVFR conditions are then expected overnight, though scattered snow showers and isolated squalls could lead to briefly worse conditions at times, especially through the first half of the night. Southwest winds at 5 to 12 kts will turn northwesterly behind frontal passage and increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts of 20 to 30 kt. While the gusts will gradually lessen through the remainder of the TAF period, the sustained winds will continue.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ088-118- 120.