textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather continues through Friday, with widespread heat indices in the 90s to near 100 degrees.

- An anomalously moist airmass arrives in western portions of the CWA this evening, then expands area-wide this weekend.

- Expect daily rounds of storms through Saturday, some of which could produce heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

- A series of cold front will cross the region early next week, bringing another round of thunderstorms to the area on Tuesday and then relatively cooler and drier weather towards mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure west of the state with a dome of high heights over eastern Kentucky. This is keeping most of the area free of convection except for some pinprick cells that are nearly stationary providing a scant few locations a narrow bout of heavy rain. The worst so far has been over central Jackson County where there was some small response in the creeks per the CREST analysis, but that cell has since dissipated. Otherwise, the activity fades out with sunset allowing for mostly clear skies and the development of fog in the valleys becoming locally dense - especially for spots that saw any rain today. Currently, temperatures are running in the still very warm low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints remain quite high in the low to mid 70s most places. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 400 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A wave will be rotating through a northeast CONUS trough at the start of the period, bringing a temporary deepening of the trough southwestward over the Ohio Valley. It will support a cold front which will be over the Great Lakes/upper Midwest early Saturday. The approaching front will result in WSW low level flow carrying very moist air over our area. A fair amount of deep moisture should also be present with the approach of the wave, with PWs near 2". The scenario favors showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall where they are persistent. Will look for a typical summertime diurnal peak in the late afternoon/evening on Saturday, but with a potential persisting along and ahead of the front beyond that time. Models are still varying with timing of fropa, showing it sometime Saturday night or Sunday. After fropa, enough drying should occur (especially aloft) to greatly restrict or eliminate the POP Sunday night and Monday as the northeast CONUS trough temporarily weakens and geopotential height rises occur.

Another wave will again deepen the northeast CONUS upper trough and support a more significant cold front to approach on Tuesday. With this, a set-up very similar to the previous wave should evolve, with showers/thunderstorms making a comeback. The GFS and ECMWF vary on timing of fropa - either Tuesday night or Wednesday. Behind the front, more significant drying is expected at midweek.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

Currently, VFR conditions prevail at all the TAF sites for the start of the 00Z aviation cycle. Locally wet grounds and an overall increase in low-level moisture relative to Thursday keeps confidence fairly high for greater fog coverage tonight than last. KSME and KLOZ are the most likely to fog in, so more significant vsby reductions have been explicitly included there into dawn, Friday. Elsewhere, TEMPOs cover the potential for patchier fog. Once the fog lifts, expect another day of generally scattered showers and storms, this time with wider spatial coverage. Convection chances begin to increase at the latter portion of the period, especially for the western terminals. Outside of any showers and storms, expect generally light winds - adopting more of a southwesterly orientation on Friday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.