textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and mild weather occurs today, with temperatures reaching the mid-50s and southwest wind gusts up to 35 mph.

- Rain begins early Wednesday morning, transitioning to snow showers from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through.

- Minor snow accumulations are likely through Thursday morning, with the highest amounts expected in the southeastern Kentucky mountains.

- Cold, wintry temperatures return Wednesday night and will persist through early next week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 321 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026

The extended period starts on Thursday morning, right at the tail- end of the snow event across southeastern KY. The upper level low will be passing over and just northeast of the state during the day Thursday, and we will have pretty strong long-ways fetch of of Lake Michigan, so not going to rule out some continuing clouds and upslope flow/snow showers throughout much of the day Thursday as well, even though the main event will be winding down. This isn't showing up so much in the NBM, but could be something to watch for. With such a strong surge of northerly air, it's no surprise that high temperatures will only top out in the upper 20s to around 30 in most locations.

A very brief area of high pressure moves across the region late Thursday and Thursday night. Brief will be the key word here. Skies will clear out through much of the overnight, allowing temperatures to bottom out in the teens. However, clouds will quickly begin moving back in by the early morning hours, preventing an even colder scenario. This next round of clouds will be in response to yet another shortwave-turn-upper-level-low that will be traveling and digging in the overarching troughing pattern. Models are coming into a bit better agreement of this system, showing the closed low moving across the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning, accompanied by a surface low. As this system continues to wrap in on itself throughout the day, it will drag a cold front eastward and across Kentucky, reinforcing the cold air in place.

The uncertainty lies in the extent of the precipitation with this system. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a band of precipitation along the boundary moving into western KY, but then retreating northward and staying mainly north of the CWA as the system moves through. The NAM is a bit more robust with it's precip potential, which is not surprising, but does have pops moving across the entire CWA throughout the day. The NBM seems to reflect more of the northern route, but will be interesting to see how things change as we get nearer to the forecast.

On the back edge of this system, the actual apex of the trough will move through as the upper level low traverses the Ohio Valley. This second wave of energy will be enough to warrant more pops Friday night into Saturday, with light snow possible, until the system finally exits eastward. The ECMWF, and to some degree the GFS, show a third shortwave Monday. Again, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty throughout this entire period, and expect the pops to either decrease or increase, and timing and amounts to change, as models come into better agreement with these systems. One thing is for sure, it's going to usher in even more arctic air into the region, and cold temperatures are here to stay for a while. While Friday will warm into the upper 30s and low 40s ahead of the arctic rush, Saturday and Sunday will get progressively colder, with highs in the 20s to low 30s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the teens throughout the extended period, possibly lower on some nights depending on how the cloud cover and winds play out.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2026

VFR conditions with breezy southwest winds will continue into tonight, with winds gradually diminishing as low clouds with deteriorating flight conditions and -RA begin to develop from northwest to southeast in association with an approaching cold front. Flight conditions deteriorate to MVFR primarily after 12z, and further reductions to IFR conditions are likely at some terminals before the TAF period ends.

A low-level jet ahead of the front is leading to increasingly gusty south to southwest winds today at 5 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts. Winds will become less gusty toward 00Z and there will be a threat for some LLWS for several hours during the evening until the jet relaxes somewhat.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.