textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A light, mainly patchy, frost is possible again early this morning and late tonight, primarily in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

- Expect near-normal temperatures throughout the work week, with mostly clear skies and overnight ridge-valley temperature splits likely to continue through at least next weekend.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026

Tranquil weather looks to continue through the long term period, and with a fairly stagnant pattern in place, weather will change very little from day to day. Aloft, a closed low will initially be located off the coast of the Northeast, with midlevel troughing over the eastern US; meanwhile, a strong and expansive ridge will sit over the central CONUS. Over the course of the period, this trough will gradually break down, allowing the ridge to expand eastward closer to our area, though eastern Kentucky still looks to be under the influence of ridging through early next week. Thus, at the surface, models are in good agreement that high pressure will dominate, keeping weather uneventful through the forecast period. With such a dry air mass in place, even clouds will be hard to come by through Saturday. Thus, expect plenty of sunshine and high temperatures near average in the upper 60s and low 70s. Each night, clear skies and a weak pressure gradient will favor the development of ridge valley temperatures splits, accompanied by typical valley fog. MOS guidance suggests that lows will fall into the upper 30s in sheltered valleys and the low 40s in most other locations, and this seems reasonable given this pattern.

By early next week, a few clouds do look to return, associated with increasing atmospheric moisture as the ridge expands eastward and midlevel flow shifts from northerly to westerly. North of the area, a trough will attempt to dig into the Midwest; however, our persistent ridge will prevent this trough from pushing into our area, even as it flattens a bit. At the surface, an area of low pressure associated with this trough will translate east into Quebec, with a cold front extending through the Great Lakes region. However, given the upper level pattern and persistent surface high pressure, this front is not expected to make it into Kentucky by the end of the period. Model spread does increase by Tuesday, with some disagreement regarding how quickly the ridge breaks down. Even so, the most favored outcome at this time is yet another pleasant fall day, with PoPs only peaking in the very low single digits.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026

High pressure will continue to keep the weather dry and lead to mostly VFR conditions. The light winds and clear skies tonight will promote the potential for mostly river valley fog late tonight into Wednesday morning. This is not expected to affect the TAF sites at this time. The winds will generally remain at 5 knots or less most of the period out of the northeast and east.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.