textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Light precipitation moving into northwest parts of the area this morning will mean a chance for freezing rain and snow resulting in a potential for slick road conditions through the morning commute. - Winter Weather Advisory in effect until noon for locations northwest of a line from Irvine to Morehead.

- There will be a brief warm-up today and Thursday before very cold weather returns and lasts into next week.

- A major winter storm system will likely bring significant snow accumulations to eastern Kentucky this weekend.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 426 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026

The forecast period begins with surface high pressure building into the region behind Thursdays cold front. To the northwest, a surface wave is forecast to track through the Great Lakes, dragging an accompanying cold front through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, reaching the Commonwealth by Friday morning. While the forecast area remains largely dry during this frontal passage, increasing moisture ahead of a secondary system, coupled with right entrance region dynamics of an upper-level jet, will favor increasing PoP chances across the southeastern portion of the CWA. Deterministic soundings and LREF ensemble probabilities indicate a small window for a wintry mix Friday morning before CAA transitions lingering hydrometeors to light snow. Isolated PoP chances (10-20%) will persist through the day as a slow-moving jet streak tracks eastward.

Simultaneously, a surface perturbation is forecast to develop over the Texas Panhandle and eject eastward Friday. An Arctic high pressure center, diving southeast from central Canada, will entrench itself over the Great Lakes. As the Texas surface low and its associated upper-level trough eject northeastward, their northern extent will be suppressed by the strength of the Canadian surface ridge. This setup favors a more track from the Texas Panhandle through the Gulf States and into the Southeast. With cold air established by the surface high and an influx of Gulf moisture, accumulating snowfall is forecast for the region between the Tennessee Valley and the Ohio River. While overnight model guidance suggests a slight northward shift, ensemble probabilities continue to highlight areas along and north of the I-40 corridor, including eastern Kentucky, as the primary targets for significant accumulation. The 00Z LREF shows a 100

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST WED JAN 21 2026

VFR conditions were reported at issuance time, with winds light and variable in more sheltered locations to south at 10KT or less in areas of more open terrain. High pressure will continue to depart to the east to begin the period, while a weakening cold front approaches. This will lead to low level flow, especially just above the surface, increasing late tonight and Wednesday. This will bring the potential for low level wind shear between about 10Z and 18Z, with the threat diminishing as south to southwest surface winds and gusts increase. Moisture will also increase, with low and mid level clouds arriving toward 12Z in the west, before spreading across the remainder of the area. As the lower levels saturate, precipitation, mainly rain, but perhaps mixed near KSYM, may begin to reach the surface as early as 12Z to 18Z. Chances would then spread across the remainder of the area through 00Z. Along with the precipitation reaching the ground, MVFR, and in some cases at least brief IFR, should develop and spread southeast between 18Z and 00Z, reaching the far southeast to end the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060.