textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect a clearing trend to continue this evening, with much cooler and drier air spreading across the region tonight.

- Widespread frost and brief periods of near-freezing to sub- freezing temperatures are likely tonight into Sunday morning.

- Frost is anticipated again from Sunday night into Monday morning, especially in the valleys of far eastern and southeastern Kentucky.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 354 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026

The models are in good agreement for the long-term period. This comes as upper-level ridging builds toward the Ohio Valley. At the surface, we will remain under the control of passing surface high pressure systems for the period. The biggest impacts on the horizon for the week will be the possibility of frost Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday, confined primarily to the sheltered valleys. Outside of the frosty mornings to start the week, expect afternoon highs to moderate, climbing back toward the 70s as the period progresses.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026

High-end MVFR and low-end VFR conditions are observed across area terminals this afternoon, largely in part due to a stubborn broken cloud deck that is being aided by a north-northeasterly wind fetch off of Lake Erie. This has yielded a few embedded, terrain- enhanced rain showers in far eastern and southeastern Kentucky. The only terminal near these showers is KSJS, and the potential for some light rain has been handled with a PROB30 there. The cloud deck and precipitation potential should scatter out this afternoon as diurnal mixing and dry air advection take root. Breaks can already be observed within this afternoon's satellite imagery, and the clearing trend should continue through sunset. Clouds will hang around the longest at southern and eastern terminals, but forecast thinking remains that they should give way to mostly clear skies tonight. This nocturnal return to VFR conditions coincides with a transition to lighter surface winds, which will acquire more of an easterly orientation headed into tomorrow. Patchy valley fog is possible overnight, but it is not expected to impact the terminals. A widespread frost/freeze is more likely, so once skies clear out, VFR conditions should persist through the end of the 18z TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-050>052- 104-106.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ058>060-068- 069-079-080-083>088-107>120.