textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mainly clear skies, mild days, and chilly nights will persist well into next week.

- Light, patchy frost may develop tonight and again late Friday night in valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

UPDATE

Issued at 910 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026

For tonight, colder low temperatures in the upper 30s were expanded over a little bit larger area outside of the deep valleys.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 153 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026

A blocky pattern will still hold at the start of the long term period, with an expansive and amplified midlevel ridge over the center of the country. To the west of the ridge, troughing associated with a closed low initially located over California will have little ability to progress east through early next week, when this disturbance lifts north and finally begins to flatten the ridge. With this pattern in place, local conditions will vary little from day to day through Tuesday as surface high pressure remains nearby.

Through Tuesday, weather should remain sunny as high pressure dominates. Each afternoon, temperatures will rise to near or slightly above average for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday does look to be the warmest day of the period, as the ridge expands east somewhat and 500 mb heights peak in roughly the 90th percentile compared to climatology. Even so, temperatures should remain mild, perhaps peaking in the mid 70s at most. Troughing off the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend will prevent any eastward progression of this ridge, keeping eastern Kentucky firmly east of the ridge axis, and by extension, the highest geopotential heights. By Monday the ridge will begin flattening, with high temperatures falling a degree or two.

Accompanying these pleasant temperatures will be plenty of sunshine. Skies should be nearly clear through the weekend, with just a slight uptick in upper level moisture by early next week as flow aloft begins to shift more westerly. With such dry air just above the surface, NBM dewpoints are almost certainly overdone, particularly in the afternoon hours. Thus, dewpoints were nudged down into the low and mid 40s, much more in line with ensemble guidance. Overnight, this dry air, in addition to clear skies and a weak pressure gradient, should allow for efficient radiational cooling. This will set the stage for ridge valley splits as valleys fall into the upper 30s and ridgetop lows remain in the low 40s through early next week.

By Tuesday, flow aloft will become more southwesterly as the ridge finally breaks down and troughing begins to dig into the central CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low will progress across the Midwest, with a weak and poorly defined cold front extending to the southwest of this system. This front will attempt to sag toward our area somewhat, but with limited upper level support, it should lose steam and become more diffuse with time, and is not expected to make it to the Commonwealth. Thus, the forecast still remains dry, with the main change being a slight increase in cloud cover and highs cooling by a degree or two.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026

Fog will bring IFR or worse conditions in some valley locations overnight and early Friday, mainly near lakes, rivers, and large streams. KSYM was affected by mainly MVFR conditions for a few hours around dawn for the last couple of days, and the TAF has allowed for a potential for this again. Although KSME dropped to IFR or worse for about an hour early this morning, confidence in a repeat is not high enough to include it in the TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds will prevail during the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.