textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather will continue into tonight as a front lingers in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times into the evening, which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

- Temperatures will increase to well above normal, or even near record, levels by the middle of next week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

To open the extended period, prominent features at 500 mb include a trough over the Northeast, a ridge extending from the Upper Midwest down through the Mississippi Valley, while a second trough is modeled over the Northern Rockies. The upper pattern remains fairly progressive, with the ridge moving east over the Southeast US and Ohio Valley by Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday. Thursday through Saturday, the second trough modeled over the Northern Rockies by Monday will slowly break the upper ridge down, ushering in cooler weather for Friday and Saturday.

For sensible weather, the new work week starts with a surface cold front having just passed southeast of the area. Some lingering isolated showers remain possible early along the Virginia-Kentucky border. Some residual river valley fog should mix out by mid-morning. Temperatures will be cooler, ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s from north to south. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected early, becoming fair in the afternoon and evening. With skies clearing out Monday night and high pressure building in, temperatures cool into the low to mid 50s in the valleys, with upper 50s to low 60s along ridge tops. River valley fog is expected to develop again Monday night before mixing out Tuesday morning.

With the ridge shifting into the Southeast, high pressure builds into the region, leading to temperatures warming into the upper 80s to low 90s through Thursday. Shortwave energy associated with the second trough brings shower and storm chances back to the CWA Thursday through Saturday. A cold front looks to progress into the forecast area from the Ohio Valley before stalling out Saturday. Agreement among model and ensemble guidance does widen heading towards the end of the week. With troughing energy seemingly breaking down the ridge heading into the weekend, high temperatures lax some, ranging from the mid 80s to upper 80s north to south on Friday, and low 80s to mid 80s north to south on Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

Widely varying conditions were in place across eastern Kentucky at TAF issuance time with IFR or worse in ongoing convection while generally MVFR to VFR conditions were noted elsewhere. Look for ongoing convection to gradually wind down this evening, but that will probably just allow for areas of fog and low stratus to develop overnight. Winds will be south to southwest around 5 knots or less today becoming light and variable tonight. However, briefly strong and erratic winds will be possible within/near storms through the evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-052-104-106-107-109- 110-119-120.