textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost or light freeze conditions are expected across most of eastern Kentucky late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

- Below normal temperature will last through early Tuesday, followed by warmer weather to last into the weekend.

- The next expectation of area wide rain is not until the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows chilly high pressure of to the northeast of the area in control of our weather. This is working to settle the northerly winds of 5 to 10 mph with a few lingering higher gusts and is keeping skies mostly clear. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 50s north to the low 60s south. Meanwhile, dewpoints are rather dry, varying from the mid 30s near Lake Cumberland to the mid and upper teens northeast. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with forthcoming freshenings of the SPS, NPWs, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 332 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026

Upper level ridging will dominate the beginning of the long term period. On Wednesday, a cold front will meander south from the Great Lakes region, but will become diffuse as it is abandoned by its upper level support. Weak moisture return ahead of the front could potentially support isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder in the northernmost portion of the forecast area (generally north of the Mountain Parkway). However, PoPs remain relatively low at this time (20-40%), with better precipitation chances generally expected closer to the front. Elsewhere, warm temperatures and limited moisture return will allow RH values to approach critical levels. This, in combination with breezy conditions, will allow for elevated fire weather concerns. By Thursday, continued high pressure will allow for temperatures to soar into the 80s, once again leaving afternoon RH values near critical levels. However, a weakening pressure gradient will limit afternoon wind gusts (likely reaching a maximum of 10-15 mph), helping to mitigate fire weather concerns somewhat.

This weekend, a series of shortwaves moving through a longwave trough over the western half of the US will gradually break down upper level ridging, allowing for a wetter pattern to set in. By Friday, southwesterly flow ahead of a sharp cold front over the central United States will usher in a period of more earnest moisture return, leading to gradual dewpoint increases. This front will enter Kentucky on Saturday, finally allowing for widespread and appreciable rainfall. As of now, the best chance for showers and thunderstorms seems to be from Friday night through Saturday. However, models diverge with respect to the synoptic pattern this weekend, particularly with respect to the amplitude of pre- existing upper level ridging and when this ridge will breakdown. The structural evolution of these upper level features will be critical for precipitation timing and QPF this weekend. This QPF uncertainty is reflected in LREF guidance, which maintains a ~0.50 discrepancy between 25th and 75th percentile accumulations this weekend. Regardless, confidence is high (80-90%) in receiving at least a quarter of an inch of rain across the forecast area this weekend. Looking ahead, quasi-zonal flow should allow for a more active weather pattern early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026

VFR conditions are in place for the 00Z TAF issuance and will continue through the period. Winds will be light and variable through tonight with some pick up from the southwest during the day Tuesday at 7 to 12 kts with late day gusts up to 20 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ044-050-051-058>060-069-080-085.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ052-086>088-104-106>120.