textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest periods will be Sunday and Tuesday through Friday of the coming week. New daily record high temperatures will possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - A weak cold front brings isolated to scattered showers today, generally over the Cumberland River Basin, but average rainfall from these are expected to be meager. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday and persist through much of next week as the area will be on the far eastern/southeastern periphery of an active storm track from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region.

UPDATE

Issued at 743 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

The forecast is on track with no significant changes needed.

UPDATE Issued at 509 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

An early morning update is out updating latest observed temperatures. Sky grids were also updated to reflect current observed trends and latest model guidance.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 247 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

The long term period will be characterized by a fairly stagnant upper air pattern between persistent high-amplitude troughing over western North America and the subtropical Eastern Pacific Ocean, and downstream ridging extending from the Gulf of America to the western Atlantic. An active storm track will persist through the period under southwest flow aloft, pushing systems from Texas and New Mexico northeast to the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley, with eastern Kentucky residing toward the southern/southeastern periphery of the fronts and associated precipitation. The region will reside within the warm sector for most it not all of the period, thus resulting in a run of much above normal temperatures that are likely to threaten daily records for several consecutive days this week, with highs well into the 80s for much of the week, and possibly touching 90 degrees the middle to latter part of the week in parts of the Big Sandy and Upper Kentucky river basins.

Shower and thunderstorm chances look to be low but will persist each day of the week, generally favoring northern and western parts of the forecast area closer to the storm track, but PoPs remain below 40 percent at any one time for the week. Thus, drought conditions seem poised to worsen across southeastern Kentucky.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

As of 1115z this morning, low stratus had made it to just north of a KSME-KJKL-KSJS line, with low-MVFR to IFR cigs. Forward progress of this low stratus deck seems to be slowing significantly in the last hour or so, but will likely still make it to KJKL and KSJS for at least a short period of time this morning. To the south of this line, VFR conditions prevail with mid-level clouds.

This low stratus deck will lift and scatter by this afternoon, with somewhat low confidence in how quickly this occurs. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period outside of the low chance of some patchy fog Sunday morning in a few river valley locations (but likely not impacting TAF sites).

Winds will be light and variable or north to northeasterly at ~5 kts or less. However, the passage of a warm front overnight into Sunday morning will allow for winds to gradually veer to a more southeasterly to southerly direction toward the end of the TAF period, though with wind speeds generally remaining at 5 kts or less.

VFR conditions are in place to begin the period, with very light rain showers moving east-southeast from near KIOB and KSYM to near KSJS along a decaying cold front. The potential for MVFR ceilings increases after 08z from the north along and just behind the stalling front, with the low potential for a few isolated showers impacting IOB and SJS. The low CIGs linger into the afternoon Saturday before clearing out and returning back to VFR as the front dissipates. Winds will be generally be ~5 kts or less from the north to northeast during the daytime hours Saturday, but will otherwise be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.