textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm through Thursday, while humidity gradually increases through Friday and lingers this weekend.

- A slow moving boundary will likely bring showers and stray thunderstorms from Friday afternoon into the weekend until a secondary boundary passes to end the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026

The extended period opens Thursday morning with a ~1020 mb surface high over the Southeast beneath a building upper-level ridge. Further upstream, an upper-level closed low (with central 500 mb heights around 570-576 dam) embedded within a broader southern-stream trough will be centered over the Southern Rockies and Southwest. Recent LREF runs have trended noticeably more amplified with this pattern, deepening the southwestern low while strengthening the ridge over the Eastern US. This enhanced downstream ridge and strong southerly warm- air advection (WAA) across the Ohio Valley account for the warming pre-frontal temperatures in recent guidance, supporting highs across Eastern Kentucky in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday and low to mid 80s on Friday.

An initial cold front will sink eastward toward the Commonwealth on Friday, drawing rich Gulf moisture up the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and bringing an increasing coverage of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. As the southern-stream upper trough opens up and the surface boundary stalls near the Ohio River/Appalachians, shower and thunderstorm chances will linger across Eastern Kentucky through Saturday. Temperatures will cool into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Saturday under persistent cloud cover and intermittent rain.

A secondary northern-stream trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday morning, pushing a reinforcing cold front through the region and steadily lowering rain chances from northwest to southeast through Sunday afternoon and evening (highs in the lower 70s). However, as the main trough axis slowly sweeps across the Appalachians, isolated shower chances could remain along the KY-TN and KY-VA borders through Monday morning. Drier continental high pressure takes full control by Monday afternoon, shutting off any remaining precipitation. While daytime temperatures remain pleasant in the upper 60s to low 70s Monday and Tuesday, clear skies and light winds Monday night will allow cooler lows in the 40s to return to the area.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026

Upper level ridging extending from the western Gulf into the Appalachians and sfc high pressure centered east of the Commonwealth will lead to mainly VFR conditions and light winds through the period. The caveat will be valley fog between about 04Z and 14Z that may bring MVFR to localized IFR to VLIFR conditions, though this is not expected to impact any TAF sites. Winds will favor a south to southwesterly direction at 5 to 8 kts after 15z Wednesday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.