textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather should last through at least Sunday morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms will make a return Sunday night and Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 344 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Fast zonal flow will push a low pressure system east along a warm front/stationary boundary from west-central IL Sunday evening to the Central Appalachians Monday evening. A trailing progressive shortwave will move east along the trailing cold front from the Central Plains through the OH/TN valleys, crossing central and eastern Kentucky during the day Monday. An excessive rainfall risk remains for later Sunday through Monday, both with the strong warm advection and moisture transport northeast across central and northeastern Kentucky late Sunday, followed by a likely higher risk for Monday as flow becomes more westerly and allows for better moisture transport to penetrate into far eastern and southeastern Kentucky, at least briefly. While this event does not look as robust as the previous system, the recent heavy rainfall will mean soils and small streams will be a bit more susceptible to flash flooding and high water issues. Additionally, sufficient shear and instability will likely exist during this time to support a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms from late Sunday through frontal passage Monday, with damaging winds being the primary severe weather threat both days.

Progressive cyclonic flow aloft persists through the remainder of the week within a broad longwave trough across much of the northern and eastern CONUS, with mostly dry conditions expected Tuesday through much of Wednesday as surface high pressure moves across the area. Additional disturbances will likely push from the Northern and Central High Plains through the central part of the country for the remainder of the period, bringing a return of shower and thunderstorm chances, though there is relatively poor model agreement on the details of the timing, magnitude, and location of these disturbances moving through the progressive flow.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday) ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

There are no changes from the previous forecast discussion.

Valley fog is expected to develop early this morning and grow in breadth and depth until it dissipates after sunrise. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, and may affect KSME and KLOZ for a time. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period, along with winds light at night and west at less than 10 kts during the daylight hours.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.