textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The best chances of showers and thunderstorms will stay generally north of I-64 through the bulk of the night before returning to the south after dawn.

- Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday and Saturday, threatening daily record highs.

- A strong cold front will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, some of which could be strong to severe.

UPDATE

Issued at 1140 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as a tweaking of the PoPs and QPF per the most recent CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows the wavy warm front now moving back north taking the scattered convection along with it. The better chances for a renewed surge of showers or storms into the area will likely hold off until after dawn on Thursday. This will leave partly cloudy skies around tonight along with some patchy valley fog. Currently, temperatures are quite warm - running in the mid 50s north to the mid 60s south. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are generally in the moist low to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids while fine tuning the PoPs through the night per the most recent CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 526 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

An amplified long wave pattern will continue over the CONUS through the middle of next week. A positively tilted trough will start out positioned from central Canada through the eastern Pacific Friday. A more vigorous short wave trough will curl northeast out of the Four Corners region, likely interacting with northern stream energy inbound from south central Canada through Saturday. There is model spread regarding the surface details, with the GFS showing a more vigorous low pressure system and cold front, while the ECMWF is more dialed down. Either way, the majority of this energy will likely sail well to our northeast, with eastern Kentucky receiving a more sheared out cold front as it arrives late Saturday. The boundary will clear the state by early Sunday, before diminishing to our southeast. Meanwhile, a cutoff low will be well established across Baja California, with broad troughing being maintained across northern half of the CONUS. Low level southwest flow will then recharge across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys into early next week, with a return of better rain chances to eastern Kentucky. By Wednesday, the cutoff low will have transitioned to an open wave, driving a more progressive cold front towards the area. Details are very murky this far out, given the complicated set up, so confidence in forecast details is low at this point.

Sensible weather will feature a likely record-threatening high temperature day across eastern Kentucky on Friday and possibly Saturday, although records on Saturday are a bit more stout compared to Friday. Temperatures will soar into the upper 70s and lower 80s Friday, with mid to upper 70s to around 80 occurring on Saturday. PoPs will be lower Friday, as a warm front stays mainly to our north, with widespread activity returning for Saturday out ahead of the approaching cold front. There could be stronger convection on Saturday, with better instability in play, although with decreasing wind fields by the time this would be maximized, this misalignment currently forecast would work against this threat. The cold front will move out Sunday, with drier conditions expected Sunday night into Monday. Highs will retreat to mainly the 60s for Sunday, before returning to the 70s, and possibly lower 80s by early next week once again. A better uptick in rain chances return to the forecast by Tuesday, with higher chances seen Wednesday out ahead of the next approaching cold front.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026

For the 06Z TAF issuance conditions were VFR as the main area of showers and storms is staying just north of the forecast area. Look for some mainly light fog around, at times, through the night with a renewed chance for convection settling back south just after daybreak, Thursday, arriving from west to east. Winds will generally remain light through the night, with a potential of LLWS from the southwest at up to 40 kts continuing through dawn. During the day, Thursday, winds will begin to pick up at the sfc and gust as high as 20 kts, for most locations. The remainder of the aviation forecast period will feature mostly VFR, and occasional MVFR, conditions, though any thunderstorms could briefly produce IFR conditions through the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.