textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A gradual warming trend will occur late in the week.

- After a lull for most of the week, a shower and thunderstorm potential returns for the upcoming weekend.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 407 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

The period opens in the midst of the gradual breakdown of the previous blocking pattern. As the deep upper level trough migrates off the East Coast, high amplitude ridging extending into the Great Lakes region will progress eastward, leaving eastern Kentucky temporarily between these two features. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will lead to predominantly northeasterly winds on Wednesday; thus, drier air will enter the forecast area, and with a dry atmospheric column owing to northerly flow aloft, these dry conditions will prevail throughout the day. Courtesy of clear skies, highs will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s across the area. In terms of sensible impacts, Thursdays weather will be similar, albeit with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 80s) as the upper level high progresses east and height rises are expected aloft. Meanwhile, the surface highs progression southeast will allow for winds to become more westerly to southwesterly as the day progresses, initiating modest low level moisture return, although the middle and upper level moisture should still remain low enough to maintain clear skies.

With clear skies and high pressure in place, the primary deviation from NBM output was to add additional terrain influences in the area, with a modest ridge-valley temperature split likely overnight on Wednesday into Thursday morning. With the NBM running cooler than guidance for ridges and warmer than guidance for valleys, hourly and low temperatures were adjusted accordingly. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 40s will provide a reasonable floor for overnight temperatures in sheltered valleys, and therefore mainstem river valleys can expect fog on Thursday morning. With persisting clear skies, low temperatures will again approach dewpoints overnight Thursday into Friday morning, hinting at another chance for valley fog in prone areas.

On Friday, the upper level high is expected to drift farther southeast, but we should get one more day of dry weather before rain chances return to the forecast. High temperatures will again be firmly in the 80s, but with a tightening pressure gradient and southwesterly winds around the high over the southeast, moisture return will continue. Dewpoints in the upper 50s or perhaps even the 60s will be possible by Friday afternoon, and as the upper level ridge continues to break down and the pattern aloft becomes quasi-zonal, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area starting on Saturday. In the absence of more defined synoptic forcing, rain chances look to be relatively low on Saturday, but by Sunday an upper level low over the upper Midwest/southern Canada and its associated surface cyclone over the Great Lakes region will push eastward. Concurrently, an upper level low over the Southern Plains will also be progressing eastward, with a broad area of modest height falls aloft. Accordingly, chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms increase again Sunday. While the details of these upper level features are not fully resolvable at this time, a shift towards a marginally wetter pattern appears likely going into the late weekend and the start of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2026

There is a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of KEKQ until early evening. Valley fog may affect the deeper valleys (mainly in southeast KY) overnight/early Tuesday. Either of these could bring localized IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR is expected during the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.