textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow/snow showers will continue across much of Eastern Kentucky through the day, particularly east of I-75.

- Some of the stronger snow showers may produce locally higher accumulation rates, wind gusts up to 30 mph, and sudden visibility reductions. - Much colder air lingers into Tuesday morning, but a mid-week warming trend remains on track with soaking rains to follow.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 355 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures for a couple of the nights over the upcoming weekend. Also, we are still watching an excessive rain potential for Thursday into Friday morning from the next well developed weather system passing through.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long term forecast period continues to be defined by a general warming trend and the approach of two mid-week systems. While the most recent runs of the deterministic forecast guidance models have come in a little bit below the blended NBM baseline, temperatures are still expected to return to near- or just-above-normal readings by mid-week. This relative warmth bolsters confidence that all precipitation associated with the two aforementioned systems will fall in the form of rain, although we will have to closely monitor the potential for locally heavy rainfall with the second one. The synoptic pattern remains progressive headed into next weekend, but model spread significantly increases in the latter stages of the period. This reduces confidence in sensible weather specifics, but above-normal temperatures are currently forecast for next weekend.

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures climb into the lower half of the 40s on Tuesday afternoon. As midlevel ridging briefly builds into the region, the corresponding surface high will shift into the Southeastern CONUS. This shift establishes a regime of southwesterly surface flow here in Kentucky, and those winds are forecast to strengthen overnight in response to a tightening pressure gradient. This yields warm air advection, as does the approximately 40 knot 925mb low level jet out of the southwest. Further aloft, models resolve 50-60 knot 850mb winds, but these will be more out of the west-southwest. In the mid and upper levels, winds retain more of a northwesterly component on the backside of the previous day's mid/upper level trough. Altogether, this suggests that the depth of the moisture return out ahead of Wednesday morning's clipper-type system will be limited. The best precipitation chances accordingly remain displaced to the northeast of the forecast area, but expect increased cloud cover and breezy winds overnight. Such a set up will insulate overnight lows to above- freezing values before a cold front associated with that system pushes through on Wednesday morning.

That boundary looks rather weak, with only a subtle shift in winds towards the west and little to no associated cold air advection behind it. Shortwave ridging may briefly clear the clouds on Wednesday afternoon, but the resultant increase in solar radiation would allow afternoon highs to climb towards the 50s. Furthermore, the progressive nature of the overarching synoptic pattern will allow another troughing disturbance to approach from the west on Wednesday evening. Models resolve this feature as much stronger and better defined than its predecessor, and it has the potential to produce greater sensible weather impacts as a result.

As leeward cyclogenesis takes place upstream on Wednesday night, the previous day's boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm front. As surface winds back towards the south in response, models generally resolve the return of 35-45 knot flow at 925 mb and 50-60 knot flow at 850mb out ahead of it on Thursday. This time, all of this low level flow will be out of the southwest, and the deeper nature of the parent trough means that the moisture return out ahead of this second system is expected to be much more effective than the first. Median PWAT values surge to around 1.00 inch in the latest LREF Grand Ensemble data, and this is on the higher end of climatological guidance. The mean moisture parameter data remains lower then the median, suggesting that there could be a skew towards lower values, but the signal for excessive rainfall does not look as impressive as it was at this time yesterday. A Marginal (Level 1/5) Excessive Rainfall Outlook remains in place for the entire forecast area on Thursday, but the timing, track, and exact evolution of the resultant surface low pressure system is currently uncertain. If a more southeastern track comes to fruition, the better moisture return regime could be confined to the south of the forecast area. Recent ECMWF guidance has trended in this direction, and the previous QPF signal in the EFI/SOT has become more muted. Cloud cover and rain chances are still expected to increase overnight into Thursday morning in response to this set up, then persist throughout much of the day. The positive tilt of the parent trough, persistent cloud cover, and temps in the 40s/50s will limit the amount of available shear and instability, and thus the thunderstorm chances with this system. However, some of the rain showers could still contain heavier rainfall rates, especially immediately ahead of the system's cold front and in the southern half of the forecast area. There, lift will be maximized, and there is a 30-50% chance of at least 1 inch of rain across the forecast area by the time the FROPA occurs.

Most models depict the return of postfrontal ridging on Friday into Saturday, with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This allows the warming trend to continue through the end of the long term forecast period, but the forecast uncertainty compounds towards the very end of the period. The standard deviation of the available ensemble-based MOS temperature guidance spikes to between 5 and 7 next weekend, with even greater numbers in the precipitation guidance. In the baseline NBM guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids, this corresponds with a 15 to 25 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile temperature guidance and a prolonged period of slight chance PoPs early next week. It is difficult to pinpoint specific forecast details amidst that magnitude of model spread, so interests with outdoor plans next weekend are encouraged to stay tuned to future forecast updates.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026

Generally MVFR and IFR conditions were commonplace at the 06Z TAF issuance time, with some VFR in the far west - between the upper waves bringing the snow showers. Winds are generally northwest at 10 to 15 kts, with some gusts approaching 20 kts. Scattered snow showers remain generally east of I-75 and to the south of I-64 with the more persistent snow showers in higher elevations adjacent to the KY-VA border. Some brief IFR reductions or the lower end of the MVFR range may occur with snow showers during renewed activity through 09Z with that next wave - generally occurring from near KSYM to KJKL to the VA border including KSJS. Otherwise, MVFR or VFR should generally prevail for the first 6 to 12 hours of the period, with MVFR or IFR most common east of I-75 and within snow showers. Winds will average from the northwest at 10 to 15 kts with some gusts near 25 kts into the day - diminishing a bit during the evening as CIGs improve west to east.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ087- 088-110-113-115-117>120.