textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue at times into the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially today and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area through early Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

Aside from a touch up to the near term PoPs and timing the fog, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFS, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 911 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

Precip has died out for the time being. However, showers/thunderstorms are on the increase again over central and western KY and should make their move in our direction during the night. Have adjusted the POP for the current lull, but allowed for an increase from the west with time.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

The period begins with a westerly mid-level jet stream across the Ohio River Valley, including eastern Kentucky, ahead of a mid-level low/trough and stacked surface low over northeastern Missouri and western Illinois, with this feature only moving to the Lower Ohio River Valley by Sunday morning as the circulation becomes detached from the upper flow and becomes trapped by a massive upper high that develops across the western and northern CONUS late this weekend into next week. With continued warm advection and a quasi-stationary front across the area, a risk for flash flooding with the potential for rounds of heavy rain will remain through much of Saturday into Saturday night.

Models strengthen this upper high to ~602-dm centered somewhere over the MO Valley through early next week before it begins to gradually weaken in place through the middle of next week. Most models are in agreement in suppressing the remnants of the trapped mid-level low and associated warm advection southward with time, with a gradual diminishing of PoPs and Sky cover from north to south from the second half of this weekend through the middle of next week as drier northeasterly mid-level flow advects in from the northeast. A marginal flash flood threat may persist across far southern/southeastern parts of the forecast area into Sunday, where better instability and moisture may linger along with relatively weak flow aloft supporting slow storm motions.

The gradual drying and clearing trend through the period will also support an increasing trend for high temperatures through the period, but with highs still within a few degrees of normal in the mid to upper 80s by the end of the period, with lows in the 60s each morning.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

Still VFR conditions were reported at all the TAF sites for the 06Z issuance, however change is afoot. The latest round of showers and thunderstorms are about to impinge on the western sites and expected to spread east through the next several hours - though a weakening trend is noted. The coverage of precip should peak over the JKL forecast area overnight and early this morning, with IFR conditions probable at times. After a brief lull, more showers/ thunderstorms area expected from around mid day into the afternoon. Although, confidence drops off as to how that next round evolves. Winds will be light and variable at less than 10 kts outside of any convection.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.