textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as a cold front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times, which could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 130 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also fine tune the PoPs into the day per current radar images and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1118 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

The late evening update is out with minor updates to PoPs through the remainder of the overnight. Otherwise, temperatures and dew points were again updated with the latest observations used as the initialization for the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 619 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

Quick update sent out to raise Pops in the Lake Cumberland area for the next few hours given the current radar trends. This activity is expected to weaken rather shortly as it moves into a much more stable environment after passing Lake Cumberland, where MLCAPE values are less than 500 J/kg. Otherwise, the latest hourly temperatures were updated using the observations from the last hour as the initialization to the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 318 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

Model suites are in reasonable agreement for much of the long term period. The beginning of the period will feature a weaker upper level shortwave that will progress across the Ohio Valley. This weaker wave will keep shower and thunderstorm chances going in the first part of the weekend. Given the weak shear and increased PWAT values in the 1.75 to nearly 2 inch range, we could see a renewed threat of heavy rain given the increasing moisture and slow storm motions. Given this, WPC does keep us in a isolated risk of flash flooding on Saturday. Then by Sunday the previous wave dampens as it progresses out of the area. The lower Ohio Valley will then see heights begin to rise in the wake. This will lead to isolated convection Sunday, mainly confined to the higher terrain given the lack of synoptic scale forcing.

As we move into the beginning of the work week and into mid-week, we will see upper-level ridging become further established across the Southeast US. This ridging will be quite strong for this time of year, running above the 90th percentile. This will usher in mostly dry weather Monday into Tuesday, but with that will come warmer temperatures. The warmest day right now is expected to be Tuesday, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Then by Wednesday into Thursday this ridging will start to breakdown and a cold front will progress across the Ohio Valley. There has been some timing differences with this boundary within the various model suites that will need to be resolved, but overall expect increasing chances of showers and Thunderstorms by late next week. Than Some of the guidance shows this boundary could usher in some much dryer and cooler weather by late in the week into next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

Deteriorating conditions will be the rule with conditions of VFR/MVFR falling to MVFR/IFR or lower into the morning hours as a mix of low clouds and fog continue to develop across the area within a weak warm advection environment. Rain shower activity likely redevelops through the rest of the night as an upper wave approaches from the west through morning. The potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms returns with this as well and continues through the day - becoming likely in the afternoon as even minimal instability will help to repeatedly kick off convection upstream and later over the area. Confidence remains too low to include anything aside from PROB30 groups at any specific terminal at this time, though. Otherwise, away from any storms, winds will be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.