textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures moderate to a few degrees above normal for Monday and Tuesday, before below normal temperatures return to end the week.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from tonight through Saturday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 1136 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

The lower atmosphere continues to moisten from the south and southwest as clouds and primarily virga move into the northern counties. Additional showers and possibly a few storms will arrive from the west and northwest and will have better opportunities to produce measurable precipitation for parts of the area lasting into Monday. Updates were made to PoPs and Sky grids based on current trends. Forecast lows remain largely unchanged but are likely too low (i.e., pessimistic) across the northern half of the forecast area where clouds are likely to keep temperatures milder.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

The early evening update mainly updates PoPs and Sky grids using a blend of inherited PoPs and latest short-term guidance. Hourly T/Td updates were also made, but with essentially little to no change to the overnight forecast lows.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

The forecast period begins Tuesday morning with the area starting dry, though a cold front will quickly approach the CWA. This setup is driven by a mid-level trough digging southeast from Canada into the northern CONUS, with an associated upper-level closed low settling over the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, the parent low-pressure center will track toward the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front oriented southwest across the central CONUS. While this front is forecast to move into the area Tuesday, the surface low appears to occlude. This will cause the front to lose forward momentum and stall across the region. This boundary will facilitate showers and thunderstorms throughout the day and serve as the focal point for an extended period of convection as weak surface waves ripple along the zone of baroclinicity.

In previous model runs, the Tuesday and Wednesday front was depicted as crossing through the area, followed by a second system on Thursday that brought widespread QPF exceeding 3.00 inches. In this afternoons model suite, the Tuesday and Wednesday system remains consistent; however, the secondary feature is progged to dive further south. This shift lowers total QPF to just over an inch across the Bluegrass, with amounts up to 2.00 inches possible near the Cumberland Basin and Tennessee border. The boundary is forecast to finally exit the area Thursday morning, ushering in a period of surface high pressure. This dry window will be short-lived, as another perturbation is progged to dive southeast toward the Commonwealth late Friday. This will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the forecast period.

Overall, the period is expected to be active as multiple perturbations ride along the stalled boundary from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday night. A brief reprieve from the precipitation is expected Friday, though this will be cut short by another potential system arriving for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the TAF period. An increase in mid and high clouds is anticipated, with convection possible for northern and central sites mainly between 06z and 14z Monday. These will continue to be covered by PROB30 groups in the TAFs for when probabilties of showers or a stray storm and potential MVFR reductions are highest. A weak southwesterly low- level jet will slowly impinge across northern and western sites late tonight, generally after 04z, with surface winds and gusts increasing especially at exposed and ridgetop sites shortly thereafter. Given the increase in surface winds in the TAFs, LLWS was not mentioned at this time, but may need to be added later. Gusty southwest winds of 18 to 23 kts are expected at most if not all sites through the much of the daytime hours Monday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.