textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog, light snow, and drizzle/freezing drizzle are expected across southeastern Kentucky today, with localized travel impacts and light accumulations possible before precipitation diminishes in coverage overnight.

- Seasonably cold temperatures are forecast through this weekend before a warming trend emerges early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1043 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026

Just a quick grid refresh to take in the latest surface obs and touch-up radar trends. Grids have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 625 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026

Main edits for the pre-dawn update were to increase fog in the grids and to make updates to hourly temperatures (air and dew point) through 00z this evening.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 515 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

The long term forecast period opens on Thursday evening with a quick- passing surface high pressure system directly overhead. Depending upon the degree of clearing realized earlier that afternoon, light winds and a weak pressure gradient could foster ridge-valley decoupling after sunset. MOS guidance is less aggressive with these splits tonight than it was last night, but still tanks some of the conventionally colder hollows towards the single digits. There remains some model disagreement regarding the magnitude and depth of atmospheric moisture at the start of the forecast period. Some forecast guidance, such as the NAM BUFKIT soundings, keeps the low- level clouds around for longer. This precludes the forecast grids from getting as cold as the aforementioned MOS guidance, but MinTs were lowered to the teens in the shaded eastern valleys with this forecast package. On top of the ridges, in the Bluegrass, and in areas along/west of Interstate 75, MinTs will likely be in the 20s. These lows are likely to occur before 06z (1AM), when winds are forecast to back towards the southwest and begin strengthening ahead of an approaching clipper system.

The resultant warm air advection regime will allow temperatures to steadily rise on Friday morning, and as the system's lifting mechanisms arrive, precipitation chances will increase. Modeled low- level temperature profiles are below freezing at first, favoring snow as the initial p-type. However, breezy southwesterly surface winds, perhaps with wind gusts in the 20-25mph range, and veering winds aloft will support a changeover to liquid precipitation on Friday afternoon. If the previously-discussed conditional valley decoupling comes to fruition and valley temperatures lag behind the mean warming trend, Friday's p-type forecast could become more complicated than the rain-snow mix that is currently depicted in the forecast grids. Trends in both the higher-resolution forecast guidance and real-time observations will need to be monitored closely as this system approaches,, but for now, the entirety of the forecast area looks to rise above freezing by Friday afternoon. Highs range from the upper 30s north of the Mountain Parkway to the upper 40s in Southern Kentucky, which should limit accumulation potential. Likewise, the fast-moving nature of the parent system and its limited access to moisture (mean PWAT values are less than 0.5 inches across the forecast guidance suit) should mitigate potential impacts, at least relative to the stronger systems that have impacted the forecast area as of late. Ensemble probabilities of at least an inch of snow remain less than 40% across the forecast area, with the highest probabilties relegated to high-terrain locations along the Virginia state line. If this accumulation threshold is lowered to a tenth of an inch of snow, these probabilities increase to greater than 60% for locations east of the I-75 corridor. This corresponds with the spatiotemporal footprint of the greatest PoPs on Friday, and those precipitation chances look to continue into Friday night in the eastern half of the forecast area.

By Friday evening, the parent shortwave disturbance will be ejecting off to the east aloft. A surface cold front will sweep through the forecast area, and winds throughout the column will return to a northwesterly orientation overnight. This will establish a potent cold air advection regime and allow any remaining precipitation to change back over to snow. Orographic accumulation enhancements will be possible on NW facing slopes overnight, and a few pieces of deterministic guidance support this notion, with isolated storm total snow accumulations approaching an inch in places like Big Black Mountain and Dorton. Precipitation chances should taper off from NW to SE as drier air filters into the region on Saturday morning, and the baseline NBM guidance gives way to mostly sunny skies by Saturday afternoon. It is plausible that the clouds could stick around for longer, and CAA flurries could continue. It is also plausible that Saturday's forecast highs and Saturday night's forecast lows are too warm. The current forecast grids reflect a slight decrease from the deterministic NBM data, with temperatures struggling to warm above freezing in the northeastern half of the forecast area. Further to the SW (mostly west and south of the KY-15 corridor), recent guidance has trended colder than the current forecast highs in the mid 30s. This trend is due to the persistence of a potent CAA regime into Saturday afternoon. Model spread begins to increase in this time frame, but expect Saturday's temperature forecast to trend colder in subsequent forecast packages given this trend.

Thankfully, temperatures are forecast to steadily moderate through the rest of the long term forecast period. As the mean troughing responsible for the recent cold/active weather shifts east throughout the weekend, longwave ridging looks to build into the Southern Plains. One last clipper system may pass to the NE of the forecast area on Sunday, but the overarching eastward shift of the synoptic features aloft will keep the best moisture and lift displaced away from the forecast area. Thus, PoPs remain below mentionable values in this time frame, and the system's only sensible weather impacts in Eastern Kentucky will come in the form of a weak WAA regime. After a bitterly cold morning, highs are forecast to recover into the 40s across much of the forecast area on Sunday afternoon. Headed into early next week, the flow aloft is forecast to adopt more of a zonal orientation while the aforementioned ridge flattens. Modeled midlevel height rises point towards the continuation of the warming trend, with southern portions of the forecast area reaching the 50s on Monday and most of the JKL CWA in the 50s on Tuesday. By midweek, moisture return is expected around the backside of a surface high centered over the southeastern CONUS. This results in increasing precipitation chances at the very end of the period, but by Wednesday morning, even the forecast lows will be above freezing. Therefore, Wednesday's precipitation is poised to fall as a plain, liquid rain. This thermal relief is forecast to continue into the extended forecast period. The CPC continues to outline a 50-70% chance of above normal temperatures in Eastern Kentucky through mid-February, a welcome relief from the cold temperatures and wintery precipitation types that have plagued Eastern Kentucky as of late.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026

Mainly IFR or lower conditions were reported at issuance time with fog and low cigs prevailing. Mainly IFR or lower conditions should prevail from KJKL to KSJS and south through the first 6 hours of the TAF period, while improvement to MVFR and perhaps VFR may occur by 18z for KSYM. Sub-VFR conditions should largely last through about 00z, though northern locations such as KSYM could see times of VFR between 15z and 00z. Any precipitation today should be light, with some combination of snow, drizzle/freezing drizzle, and rain/freezing rain. Winds average less than 10 kts, generally from the northeast to north.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.