textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance for light accumulating snow tonight, mainly above 2000 feet in Pike, Harlan, and Letcher counties.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal will be in place over the area from tonight through Tuesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 542 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026

There are no changes to the forecast with the early evening update. Flurries and areas of light snow showers will continue at times into the overnight.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 233 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026

The forecast period begins with the area on the backside of a departing cold front. This front is tied to a surface low moving through the Great Lakes, but a lack of moisture will keep PoPs negligible to start the period. Upper-level height rises will ensure that surface high pressure builds into the region. Behind the departing cold front, CAA will usher in temperatures that are about 15 to 20 degrees below climo, as highs will struggle to exceed the mid-20s in the Bluegrass and mid-30s toward Virginia. Overnight temperatures will be much colder; clear skies and light winds will favor efficient radiational cooling, leading to overnight lows in the single digits to lower teens. Tuesday will feature continued surface high pressure with similar temperatures to Monday. However, upper-level flow begins to back throughout the day, which will favor slightly warmer temperatures overnight Tuesday. Continued mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling, and lows Tuesday night are forecast to fall into the low to upper teens.

A pattern shift is forecast for Wednesday as a shortwave perturbation quickly moves out of the Canadian Rockies late Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning, the clipper is expected to be moving into the Great Lakes. As this feature traverses the CONUS, flow will quickly turns to the southwest. WAA will lead to warming temperatures, with highs reaching the low to mid-40s. The forecast cold front is progged to move through the Commonwealth; temperatures will be supportive of initially rain, but as temperatures fall and the column wet-bulbs, a transition to all snow is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation is expected, and any snowfall that occurs will be slushy and confined mainly to elevated surfaces. Thursday brings the return of weak surface high pressure that will largely prevail through the end of the period. Daytime temperatures will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s for Thursday, warming into the upper 30s to upper 40s for Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will start in the teens for Thursday night, then warm into the upper 20s for Friday night and Saturday night.

Overall, the period will be highlighted by surface high pressure sandwiching a system that will bring a wintry mix to eastern Kentucky. The fast-moving clipper will move through the area late week and bring a burst of winter weather before high pressure returns for the weekend. Temperatures will run below average for the period, but brief spurts of relative warmth will be possible as WAA moves into the region.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST SAT JAN 17 2026

As of issuance time, a mixture of MVFR and VFR was occurring across eastern KY. Showers, with brief reductions to MVFR and perhaps briefly lower, were present generally from near KSJS to KJKL and to the south as a cold front is crossing eastern KY. During the first 4 hours of the period, a general trend to VFR is forecast as drier air moves in. Winds will average 10KT or less from the southwest to west to begin the period. However, as the next shortwave trough approaches the area in the 00Z to 12Z timeframe, lower clouds should again return north for a period of time to at least a KLOZ to KJKL to KSJS line. To the south and east of that line, MVFR ceilings are anticipated for a few hours during the middle 12 hours of the period, along with the chance for light snow. During the last 6 hours of the period, a general return to VFR is anticipated with low clouds lingering or redeveloping with the heating of the day. From around 00Z onward, winds should average southwest to west at less than 10KT.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.