textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A disturbance will cross the area later tonight, with the potential for a few flurries.

- There is a potential for a more widespread dry, fluffy snow event Friday/Saturday for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on the evolution of a possible large system developing/moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

- Cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a brief warming trend following early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure nudging into the area from the southwest, but nearby low pressure to the north will remain influential. A weak wave passing by aloft will maintain a small chance for light snow, but mostly just flurries, tonight. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid teens north to the mid 20s in the south. Meanwhile, amid west to northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts, dewpoints are in the low single digits north to the mid teens in the southwest. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 506 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026

The long-term period opens Friday morning with the ingredients for a significant East Coast winter storm on a collision course. Deep upper level troughing will be over the eastern half of North America with the parent low elongating east to west from Labrador to the Upper Midwest. Southern stream shortwave troughing/vort energy is passing over the Central Gulf Coast States with an attending weak surface low reflection. As that southern stream disturbance passes to our south during the day on Friday, the deep elongating low/trough to our north will begin a hard counterclockwise pivot. Many models are now resolving a light band of snow developing E-W across the Commonwealth Friday morning/midday in response to frontogenesis as colder air moving south with that northern stream trough comes up against warmer air lifting northward on the eastern side of the southern stream shortwave and weak low pressure system. The spatial extent of the snowfall remains uncertain. By later in the day, that zone of frontogenesis gradually pivots more SW-NE and subsides southeastward ahead of the incoming northern stream trough and potent surge of Arctic air.

The favored model outcome is for the northern stream elongated trough to close off into a potent 500 hPa low as it digs southeastward toward Georgia and the Carolinas, initiating a rapidly deepening Miller A type Noreaster off the Outer Banks. The aforementioned frontogenetic zone lingers in the mid-levels over the Central Appalachians Friday night into Saturday morning, favoring continued snowfall over southeastern Kentucky. It is during this timeframe when some slantwise instability could lead to heavier snowfall rates as well. The back edge of any frontogenetic banding could have a very sharp precipitation gradient, so the eventual storm track will have a major role in the amount of snow that materializes. At this point, reasonable low end scenarios favor as little as one or two inches confined to area southeast of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor, while high end scenarios range from 7 to 10 inches in those same areas. Farther northwest, amounts could be little or nothing up to a few inches. Thus forecaster confidence in a specific amount range remains low. The steadier snow most likely tapers off during the day on Saturday, but very cold temperatures, some shallow low- level moisture in model sounding profiles, and continued upslope flow are likely to keep extensive cloud cover and snow showers/flurries going into at least Sunday morning, especially over the higher terrain. Aside from the snowfall potential, temperatures will once again turn bitterly cold with 925 hPa forecasts settling to -15 to -20C by daybreak Saturday. Temperatures in the single digits to low teens and northerly winds at 5 to 10 mph will support minimum wind chill readings below zero on both Friday and Saturday nights. MOS guidance also suggests that highs on Saturday may struggle to warm above 15F across most of eastern Kentucky as well. Of note, the record minimum high temperature at WFO JKL for January 31st is 26F set in 1996/2019, and that is likely to be destroyed. The record minimum high for that day at LOZ is 17F set in 1965 and could be in jeopardy as well. Additionally, for February 1st, the record minimum low temperature for WFO JKL is 9F set in 2013 and the record minimum high is 22F, both of which may be broken. The records at London for February 1st, set in 1971, are much colder and almost certain to hold.

Looking ahead to next week, a warming trend is still in the forecast beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week. Model spread is large with respect to another much weaker system that could bring some light precipitation in the Monday to Wednesday timeframe. Temperatures should warm above freezing for many locations on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026

VFR conditions were noted at the 00Z TAF issuance and should largely prevail through the period. A mid-level cloud deck affects many locations, generally near and south of the Mountain Parkway. A weak wave sags southward across the area tonight, potentially bringing a period of borderline MVFR ceilings and a small chance for a few flurries or light snow showers. Clearing skies late may allow for patchy freezing fog to develop near and north of I-64 towards daybreak, Thursday. Winds will be west to northwest at 8 to 13 kts with gusts up to 20 kts early this evening, slackening to light and variable tonight into the bulk of the day, Thursday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.