textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms today into this evening will bring the possibility of heavy rainfall and strong to damaging wind gusts. Training thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding.

- Lower humidity and dry weather arrive by late Tuesday and last through Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1039 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

Late morning obs were blended into the forecast, without substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

Areas of showers and a few thunderstorms are moving across northern sections of the eastern KY/JKL CWA with another upstream over Central KY/Bluegrass region. Further south a few stray showers were occurring. Both of these areas should move across northern sections of eastern KY this morning. After some training of storms overnight, these storms appear to be more progressive. Additional activity is likely to develop this afternoon/evening, with the most solar insolation expected to occur in the south. With higher instability in the more southern/southeastern locations, those areas will have the highest chance for strong to damaging wind gusts from clusters/small segments/multicell activity. Otherwise, training of storms or repeated rounds over an area will remain a concern through late this evening.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

High pressure will still be well in control for Tuesday night, continuing through Wednesday night. While the high pressure system will keep conditions dry during this time, the position of the high will start to shift eastward, placing much of KY in the return flow side with increased warm southerly winds. Highs Wednesday will rise back into the low to mid 80s, with increased humidity as well.

Unfortunately, as the high pressure continues to shift eastward, this opens up the region for more weather makers. The first will start to impact eastern KY on Thursday, a strong upper level low moves into the Upper Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario. Upper level troughing will not be that strong, but a fairly potent low pressure system will still be present across the Great Lakes Region by 18Z on Thursday. With continued and increasing SW flow into the state at the surface, a warm front will develop to our north during the day Thursday. This will put much of KY in the warm and unstable sector, introducing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day ahead of the associated cold front.

The cold front itself will significantly slow its forward movement heading into Thursday as the forcing low pressure system continues to quickly shift eastward towards SE Canada and New England, and begins to elongate the boundary. So rather than the cold front actually passing through Kentucky on Friday, it will stall a bit, and continue the shower and thunderstorm potential for much of the state. Expect that generally precip chances will decline overnight with the loss of daytime mixing/instability, and increase again during the daytime hours both Thursday and Friday...however the current forecast does still carry some isolated to scattered chances both nights.

Things get a little interesting Friday night into Saturday as the system starts to pivot and lift back north as a warm front across much of the Central Mississippi Valley region, and stalls across eastern Kentucky. The result will be a line of showers and thunderstorms along the boundary from Friday night and through the day Saturday. As of now the boundary remains in place across Kentucky even into Sunday, continuing the rain and thunderstorm chances. However, do want to note that the models do start to diverge quite a bit heading into the weekend, especially for Sunday, so expect that this forecast will still shift and change quite a bit as we get closer in time.

Without a frontal boundary actually passing through the state, the temperatures should not show any major changes, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s and decent clouds and humidity to accompany the warmer temperatures and rain chances for the second half of the work-week. Tuesday night lows might be the coolest, in the 50s, with the high passing nearby (strong subsidence and mostly clear skies) and winds still generally northerly. After that point, expect generally consistent lows in the 60s, which is fairly normal for this time of year.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026

Two areas of showers and storms were moving across the region this morning, with one extending form near KJKL to KSJS at issuance time while another area was over central KY/Bluegrass region and poised to move across northern sections of the area, especially KSYM and KIOB over the next 2 to 4 hours. With that in min, PROB30 for thunder was used for the more northern 4 TAF sites to begin the TAF period. Some showers could affect KSME and KLOZ during the first few hours of the period with a PROB30 used for this possibility. Otherwise, convection should increase in coverage and intensity generally after 16Z. There remains a good amount of uncertainty concerning the evolution of the convection this afternoon and evening, especially timing. Additional times of prevailing MVFR or showers on station was used between 16Z and 04Z, with PROB30 groups for MVFR in thunderstorms on station. Reductions to IFR or lower could briefly occur with the stronger storms in addition to gusts of 35KT or higher. As the cold front sags into eastern KY, from about 00Z onward, MVFR and even IFR or lower ceilings should become prevailing.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068- 069-080-085>088-104-106>120.