textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The last of the precipitation from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will taper off early this morning mainly as a bit of drizzle.

- Areas of dense fog will clear out by mid morning along with a lifting and break up of the low clouds by early afternoon. - Warm and mostly dry weather dominates the early part of the week.

- Rain potential returns by mid to late week, followed by much colder weather inbound for this upcoming weekend.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 400 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026

The extended period unfolds Tuesday evening through next Saturday, shifting eastern Kentucky from unseasonably warm weather early in the week to a sharp early-autumn frost/freeze potential by next weekend.

On Tuesday evening, a strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southeastern US and Gulf Coast with 500 hPa heights well exceeding the 90th percentile relative to climo. Meanwhile, at the surface, broad high pressure positioned off the Atlantic Coast will maintain steady south-southwesterly return flow across eastern Kentucky. This pattern will yield continued warm, dry, and summer-like conditions for mid-October. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will climb into the 80s, roughly 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals. Wednesdays forecast high temperature of 83F at the JKL airport exceeds the current daily record of 82F. Model soundings Tuesday and Wednesday show steep low-level lapse rates from the surface to 850 hPa, with a pronounced dry layer above the boundary layer. To account for this boundary layer mixing, raw model guidance was blended with the NBM to slightly lower dew points both afternoons.

Farther west, an upper-level trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Northern Plains will push an initial, slow-moving surface cold front into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Cloud cover should gradually increase Wednesday afternoon from the northwest, with rain shower chances slowly ramping up Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.

Some model spread remains regarding Thursday and beyond, driven by ensemble differences in the strength of the Southeast ridge and the timing of the ejecting Plains shortwave. The initial cold front entering the Ohio Valley late Wednesday is shown by a majority of models to stall and briefly lift back north as a warm front on Thursday ahead of an approaching surface wave. However, some solutions are slower. Slight chance to chance PoPs are forecast through Thursday night.

The cold front then sweeps across eastern Kentucky on Friday. Shower and thunderstorm chances accompany the frontal passage. Winds could be breezy at times, with gusts likely in the 20 to 30 mph range for many. The probability of the JKL CWA seeing gusts exceeding 30 mph currently ranges from a 40 to 60 percent chance in the latest 12Z LREF ensemble guidance. Strong post-frontal cold air advection (CAA) will surge into the Commonwealth Friday afternoon and evening. Any rain chances should diminish Friday night as low-level moisture grows increasingly shallow and temperatures drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

While there remains a great deal of uncertainty between individual deterministic models (mainly the ECMWF and GFS), ensemble cluster guidance shows overall good agreement on a deep troughing pattern on Saturday. While GEFS-heavy clusters hold onto cold northwest flow and low-level post-frontal clouds slightly longer into the afternoon, dominant EPS/CMC clusters favor faster eastward progression of the trough axis, promoting clearing from west to east as a strong surface high builds in from the Plains. The NBM has the area cooling 15 to 20 degrees from Friday to Saturday, with eastern Kentucky remaining under continuous northerly cold air advection (CAA). Highs in the mid to upper 50s on Saturday will run 10 to 15 degrees below climatological normals. If guidance holds, clearing Saturday night with a strong surface high centered nearby would support low temperatures tumbling into the upper 20s to lower 30s, effectively ending the growing season, at least in the sheltered valleys. This will be monitored, and if guidance holds and confidence grows, frost or freeze products may be forthcoming by late week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026

Low ceilings, generally corresponding with LIFR or VLIFR conditions, will probably hold through the rest of the night, along with occasional drizzle. Some lifting or eroding of ceilings will gradually arrive from the west into dawn; however, this process quickly allows for fog development, maintaining LIFR or worse flight conditions until well after daybreak. Then, the remaining fog and low stratus will eventually lift and dissipate during the midday time-frame. Winds will be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ058-068- 069-079-080-083-084.