textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will arrive after midnight tonight, and continue at times through Thursday night. - Heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding east of I-75.

- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as the front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 520 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

General model agreement remains regarding the long wave pattern through the middle of next week. Amplified and progressive flow will modulate across the northern half of the CONUS, while ridging gradually consolidates and expands west over the southeastern portion of the U.S. Eastern Kentucky will reside between a departing upper trough off of New England and a weak upper trough over the Mid- South region. At the surface, a weak cold front will be positioned near the Tennessee border back towards the lower Mississippi Valley. Eastern Kentucky will find itself in an unsettled pattern continuing into early this weekend, as troughing is maintained aloft, and the surface boundary lingers in the vicinity of the region. Model guidance has favored a slower transition to increasing 500 mb heights compared to yesterday. This will result in higher PoPs across the area through Saturday, with some locally heavy rainers still possible.

Sunday through Tuesday, more decisive ridging will build in aloft, which will limit the areal coverage of any convection. Unfortunately, this will also allow for more above normal heat and humidity, with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s, and even some lower 90s at times. Dew points will also likely exceed 70 degrees for the majority of the period. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge may broaden and pivot enough to allow for enough passing shortwave energy to drive the next surface cold front south of the Ohio River. This will bring another uptick in PoPs by Wednesday, although confidence in timing is pretty low this far out.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

At the start of the period, showers/thunderstorms were ongoing north of the forecast area in southern OH, with additional development beginning to the west over central KY. Although clouds were present in most places, all ceilings and reported were VFR. There was a touch of valley fog, mainly in southeast KY, with some localized sub-VFR conditions (but not at TAF sites).

The showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop into the JKL forecast area overnight and produce localized sub-VFR conditions. The greatest concentration of showers/thunderstorms is forecast late in the day into the evening, but confidence in how things actually play out is not very high. Showers/thunderstorms will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, but confidence in when/where is not high enough to carry poor prevailing conditions in TAFs, with only PROB30 and TEMPO groups for MVFR being used.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.