textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon from the combination of low humidity, sunny to mostly sunny skies, near-record warm conditions, dry fuels, and breezy conditions. Burning is not recommended as fire behavior could become erratic.

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest periods will be today as well as Tuesday through Saturday of this week. New daily record high temperatures will possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday and persist through much of this week as the area will be on the far eastern/southeastern periphery of an active storm track from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region.

UPDATE

Issued at 526 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

Quick pre-dawn update issued to refresh hourly temperatures based on the latest observations. No other changes are needed to the forecast at this time.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 349 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified and rather stagnant through the week. Upper level ridging will be anchored across the southeastern CONUS, while bouts of eastern Pacific energy allow for mean troughing generally west of the Plains. This results in persistent southwest flow in the middle of the country. Eastern Kentucky will remain on the periphery of traversing short wave activity, with any surface fronts likely remaining well to our northwest until perhaps towards the end of the period.

High confidence remains for a continuation of well above normal temperatures, with highs well into the 80s each day from Tuesday through Saturday, and even a few 90 degree readings for a few locations at times. Rain chances increase across the area from the northwest early next week, with better chances moving in by Thursday, with some better forcing currently predicted. A secondary peak in PoPs will occur sometime this weekend, but temporal differences amongst the models make this lower confidence.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 731 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period outside of some brief patchy fog possibly impacting KSME at the very beginning of the period. Mid- and high-level clouds will pass across the area through the period, with thicker coverage toward northern terminals later tonight. Elevated showers and/or thunderstorms may begin approaching KIOB and KSYM at the very end of the TAF period, but confidence was too low to include any mention at this time.

Light southeast to southerly winds will increase out of the south to southwest at 6 to 12 kts after 15z Sunday, with gusts of 15 to 22 kts. Winds will probably not fully decouple with the loss of daytime heating toward sunset this evening, especially for western TAF sites, as a southwesterly low-level jet will begin overspreading the area from the west during the evening and overnight periods. LLWS has been added to all TAF sites to account for this likelihood.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.