textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning - some of which could be severe (damaging wind is the main threat, though heavy rain is also a concern).

- Another round of thunderstorms are also possible later today, especially in southeast Kentucky. - Drier weather with modestly lower humidity behind a cold front will last from Wednesday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026

MCS to the east generated a very impressive storm on the border with West Virginia that looked quite capable of producing a tornado early in its life cycle. It has since broadened out and the warning was dropped. Additional strong storms are moving through eastern Kentucky ahead of a cold front inbound from the northwest. Don't think these are the last of the storms today and believe there will be one more round as the grids have been set up depicting. Did update the near term for this blossoming activity on radar and included the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 415 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to include more in the way of terrain distinctions into temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday nights along with drier afternoon dewpoints through the rest of the week. Strong 5h ridging to the west still looks to support a path for mid-level shortwaves to dive into eastern Kentucky before one of these may try to cut off to our west during the weekend. Thankfully, sfc high pressure in place from for the latter part of the work week look to keep the weather quiet, dry, and rather pleasant. Return flow moisture and the upper level dynamics seem destined to return storm chances to the forecast starting Saturday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The models remain in good agreement through Friday. An anomalously strong upper level high will meander west over the Four Corners region, with ridging dominating across the Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, troughing will remain in place across the eastern third of the CONUS. By this weekend, deeper eastern Pacific energy moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest, pivoting a ridge axis towards the central Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Further east, a short wave trough will move southeast from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, reinforcing troughing across the East. There continues to be high confidence regarding the drier and cooler weather expected across eastern Kentucky from Wednesday through Friday. As we come more under the influence of the trough this weekend and into early next week, a return of more diurnally- driven convection is anticipated, although details remain lower confidence at this point.

Drier air will be advecting in on low level north to northwest flow across eastern Kentucky on Wednesday, with highs retreating to the lower 80s and dew points dropping into the lower 60s. Surface high pressure will continue to build in for Wednesday night, with patchy valley fog and temperatures cooling off to the mid to upper 50s in sheltered valley locations, while broader valleys and ridges stay closer to the 60 degree mark. Modest 500 mb height rises and short wave ridging will maintain mostly clear skies and dry weather across our area through Friday. Temperatures will remain closer to normal for late July, with highs averaging in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.

This weekend and into early next week, rain chances will creep back into our area, as low level moisture increases and troughing returns across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys aloft. Again, PoPs will tend to peak in the afternoon hours, but fortunately, LREF mean PWATs are only peaking in the 50th-75th percentile versus climatology during this time frame, keeping any hydro threats more suppressed. Temperatures will remain seasonable, with highs in the mid 80s each day and overnight lows in the mid 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped over parts of the area with the more southeastern terminals being impacted as the latest clusters move through. Look for these storms to clear out early then a brief lull is anticipated before new cells develop towards noon. Have covered favored times for storms with prob30 groups. IFR or worse conditions can be expected with any of the heavier thunderstorms. There is good potential for strong winds with the more intense storms, but forecast confidence in specific timing and placement remains low. Eventually this renewed convection should wane and largely be gone from southeast Kentucky by early evening. Away from any storms, winds will be light and variable through early afternoon before favoring the northwest direction at up to 10 kts. Later tonight, valley fog and low clouds may become a factor in some of the TAF sites, but was left out for now in lieu of the more active near term FM groups.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.