textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures and humidity are on the rise as a cold front approaches the area this afternoon sparking scattered showers and storms.

- A few of these thunderstorms could contain strong to locally damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

- Drier conditions then prevail this weekend as temperatures climb towards daytime highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s into early next week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 152 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026

No deviations were made from the NBM for the long-term period as increasing temperatures become the primary focus during the upcoming dry stretch.

Previous long term discussion...

Under the influence of that surface high pressure system, expect mostly clear conditions to prevail on Saturday and Sunday. Sensible weather conditions this weekend will be diurnally modulated, with cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon hours and continued valley fog formation at night. Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the weekend though, as winds will veer back towards a more southerly orientation by Sunday. Saturday's highs in the mid to upper 80s accordingly trend up a few degrees on Sunday before approaching the 90s early next week.

Confidence remains high that a warmer and drier pattern will remain in place across the region early next week. Forecast guidance collectively resolves mid/upper level ridging across the Ohio River Valley on Monday and Tuesday. Modeled 850mb temps near/above 20 degrees Celsius in place favors high temperatures in the lower 90s at the surface, but the blended model guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids is likely a little bit too warm/moist. Diurnally mixed dewpoints will likely under-perform NBM guidance and remain in the low to mid 60s. This should prevent heat indices from climbing into the triple digits. While it will feel seasonably hot outside on these two days, heat headlines should not be needed.

That upper level ridge looks to broaden out by midweek, with a series of disturbances expected to propagate around its flattened northern periphery. The PoPs related to these disturbances have actually trended downward relative to previous forecast packages, with only slight chances for isolated convection included in Tuesday's forecast grids. Slightly better rain chances arrive ahead of a stronger disturbance and cold front on Wednesday, although that system's specific forecast details are masked by the increase in model spread at that temporal range. Despite that uncertainty, the midweek increase in PoPs should work to provide some relief from the early week heat. In short, temperatures should trend back towards climatological norms as we transition from August into September.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026

Some low-end VFR to MVFR cumulus this morning has now scattered out or increased in height. Timing still looks good for the potential of shower and thunderstorm development after 19Z so no changes have been made to the PROB30s from the previous TAFs. Outside of any storms, winds will be light- generally 5 kts or less - from the south to west.

Following any thunderstorm activity, will once again provide a mention for valley fog to develop into Friday morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.