textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot and muggy weather continues through today, with high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening, primarily south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A stalled front brings rounds of showers and possible storms tonight through Wednesday, with isolated flash flooding possible, primarily closer to the VA-KY border.

- Cooler, drier air arrives Thursday through the weekend, bringing daytime highs in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 310 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026

The extended period begins Tuesday evening with a strong ~583 dam high located across Northern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. This high works to suppress an upper level low/trough south as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, eastern Kentucky sits on the cool, northern side of a stalled frontal boundary draped across Tennessee, North Carolina, and the Deep South. Between the stalled front to our south and multiple perturbations rotating around the approaching upper level low, the area should see rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening and Wednesday. This could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding before the main trough axis finally shifts south and east on Thursday.

From Thursday onward, the upper-level trough amplifies and becomes a closed low off the East Coast. As the trough axis shifts east of the Commonwealth, cooler and much drier air arrives. Under persistent northerly flow and surface high pressure, seasonably cool weather takes hold: an extended period of daytime highs in the 60s-70s and nighttime lows in the 40s-50s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are noted across eastern Kentucky south of I-64 at TAF issuance. The exceptions are the typical river valley fog and a couple of isolated thunderstorms over the Big Sandy Basin. Near/north of I-64, a low stratus deck, associated with a cold front, has crept in from the north and impacted IOB and SYM. The river valley fog should lift quickly by 14Z. There is a similar expectation for the low stratus near and north of I-64 but forecaster confidence is fairly low. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected through about 18Z outside of any isolated convection. Convection is expected to become more widespread after 18Z as it blossoms along/ahead the southward sagging cold front. Widespread low stratus and fog is expected tonight behind the boundary. Light winds will become southwesterly and increase with daytime heating to 3 to 7 kts after 15z, veering northerly later the day and evening behind the front. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any showers and/or thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.