textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The approach and passage of a cold front will result in a period of showers tonight, followed by seasonably cooler temperatures to finish out the week.

- An isolated thunderstorm is possible through the first half of tonight, primarily between I-64 and the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridors.

- There is the potential for a soaking rain this weekend, with the highest rainfall totals generally expected in southern Kentucky.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 307 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026

Looking at 500-mb features across CONUS, There's low pressure over the Northeast US, and Southeastern Canada, a ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains, and another trough of low pressure off the Southern California coast.

Through Thursday, a subtle shortwave will work its way through the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to increased cloud cover through the day. There is some frontogenetic forcing that could lead to some rain or snow shower development, however with dew points expected to be in the mid to upper 20s, while surface temperatures remain in the lower 30s, the lowest levels may remain too dry to see precipitation aloft make it to the surface. At current, POPs remain under 10% and at most, maybe some drizzle or flurries could occur. Temperatures should generally be in the 40s through the day, cooling into the mid to 20s for most. Some areas in the northeast may dip into the teens.

Through Friday, and upper-level low, the one off the cost of Southern California, will progress east into the 4-corners area of the Southwest, and eventually into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Models and ensembles begin to diverge a bit on the strength, phasing, track, and more of the finer details, however the overall thinking is this upper-level low will progress into the Southeast US, with rain ahead of a warm front occurring across Kentucky. At current, amounts are trending downward, but that is likely due to the uncertainty of the lows track. Current remaining snow and ice should whittle down from warmer temperatures earlier in the forecast period. This should help mitigate river flooding, with no river forecast points currently expected to reach Action stage. The Kentucky River at Heidelberg is the currently the closest forecast point to Action, but still remains 2 feet under. This system looks to move east of the area by Sunday night. Temperatures Friday, will generally range from the upper 40s across the north to lower 50s to the south. At night, temperatures cool into the mid to upper 20s across valleys, and upper 20s to low 30s along ridge tops. Temperatures through the weekend generally remain in the 50s through the day and near 40 at night.

Monday and Tuesday will see quiet weather as a ridge of high pressure builds back into the region. Warm air advection will lead to temperatures warming into mid 50s to low 60s Monday, and the low to mid 60s on Tuesday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period, and will last through today. MVFR ceilings and showers are expected to develop from north to south across the area this evening, with the possibility of some dips into IFR conditions. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out SJS, JKL, SYM, or IOB but forecaster confidence in the temporal/spatial detail was too low to mention in the TAF. The rain will taper off from north to south overnight, but MVFR (perhaps some IFR) ceilings will last longer. Improvement back to VFR on Wednesday could be slow, especially over the northern terminals.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.