textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms are expected tonight, some of which could be severe (damaging wind is the main threat).

- Thunderstorms are also possible on Tuesday, especially in southeast KY. - Drier weather with modestly lower humidity behind a cold front will last from Wednesday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 834 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026

Convection is arriving faster than was forecast, and higher POPs have been added earlier, arriving from NNW to SSE this evening. Svr tstm watch #523 was issued for our NW counties for the storms' arrival. However, mesonet wind gust obs so far are not impressive in northern KY. Mesoscale models generally suggest that the initial storms will eventually fade as they come south this evening. Have allowed this to happen, but blended that scenario into the previously existing forecast for renewed activity during the night.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 608 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026

The models remain in good agreement through Friday. An anomalously strong upper level high will meander west over the Four Corners region, with ridging dominating across the Rockies and High Plains. Meanwhile, troughing will remain in place across the eastern third of the CONUS. By this weekend, deeper eastern Pacific energy moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest, pivoting a ridge axis towards the central Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Further east, a short wave trough will move southeast from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, reinforcing troughing across the East. There continues to be high confidence regarding the drier and cooler weather expected across eastern Kentucky from Wednesday through Friday. As we come more under the influence of the trough this weekend and into early next week, a return of more diurnally- driven convection is anticipated, although details remain lower confidence at this point.

Drier air will be advecting in on low level north to northwest flow across eastern Kentucky on Wednesday, with highs retreating to the lower 80s and dew points dropping into the lower 60s. Surface high pressure will continue to build in for Wednesday night, with patchy valley fog and temperatures cooling off to the mid to upper 50s in sheltered valley locations, while broader valleys and ridges stay closer to the 60 degree mark. Modest 500 mb height rises and short wave ridging will maintain mostly clear skies and dry weather across our area through Friday. Temperatures will remain closer to normal for late July, with highs averaging in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s.

This weekend and into early next week, rain chances will creep back into our area, as low level moisture increases and troughing returns across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys aloft. Again, PoPs will tend to peak in the afternoon hours, but fortunately, LREF mean PWATs are only peaking in the 50th-75th percentile versus climatology during this time frame, keeping any hydro threats more suppressed. Temperatures will remain seasonable, with highs in the mid 80s each day and overnight lows in the mid 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 843 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026

VFR conditions were present at the start of the period, but thunderstorms were on the forecast area's northern doorstep. Showers and thunderstorms will develop SSE into the area this evening, but the initial ones may eventually fade. This leaves some question as to when precip will hit various areas. Have covered favored times with a TEMPO group in TAFs later in the night, and placed prob30 groups on both sides. IFR or worse conditions can be expected with the heavier thunderstorms. There is potential for strong winds with the more intense storms, but forecast confidence is rather low. A cold front will be moving through on Tuesday, but destabilization ahead of the front during the day may give an uptick in thunderstorms for a time, especially in southeast Kentucky. Even renewed convection should wane and largely be gone from southeast KY by the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.