textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold weather will finish out the weekend, followed by a moderation during the workweek.

- Most of the area can expect some rain and snow around midweek, with minor snow accumulations possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 1030 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

The KJKL radar shows very light upslope snow flurries, and a few isolated light snow showers, increasing in coverage across eastern Kentucky late this evening. Most locations will see no more than a dusting. However, a few narrow bands of light snow showers are possible and could leave behind a few tenths to possibly a half inch of fluff in a few locations. The activity should become confined to locations east of I-75 toward daybreak.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

Flurries and a few snow showers have drifted into western portions of the forecast area due to an area of shallow-level moisture moving in on northerly flow this evening. The latest data suggests that should spread eastward with time. While any snow accumulations will be very light, a light coating of snow in some areas could lead to a few slippery spots. Otherwise, look for a cold night with lows in the single digits and minimum wind chill temperatures within 5 degrees of zero for most locations.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 326 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

The forecast period begins with surface high pressure with upper- level height rises occurring. However, to the northwest, a shortwave trough and occluding surface low are moving across southwestern Ontario. Trailing from the center of the low, a weak surface cold front is forecast to move through the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. This front will provide a quick glancing blow of snow closer to the center of the low where better moisture is located; however, a few flurries will be possible Monday afternoon with FROPA as wet- bulbing could saturate the column enough to support a few stray flurries for areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Another limiting factor to the flurries will be that temperatures are forecast to climb into the low 30s across the north but warming into the low 40s along the Tennessee border. Above-freezing temperatures will limit the flurry potential in addition to the lack of moisture through the column.

Overnight Monday into early Tuesday, two pieces of energy are forecast to merge over the Osage Plains. The first piece of energy is a jet streak digging southeast toward the Central Plains. The second perturbation is a shortwave trough moving northeast out of central Mexico. Surface cyclogenesis is forecast to take place over the Ozarks before ejecting northeastward toward the Commonwealth. The general track of the low has the heart of the feature riding along the Kentucky/Tennessee border with the forecast area seeing the best PoP chances increasing Tuesday afternoon and maximizing overnight before coming to an end Wednesday afternoon. Deterministic and ensemble soundings indicate that this will be a largely straightforward system when it comes to p-type as a warm nose is not coming into play with this event, and there seems to be a clear distinction between where it will be all snow versus all rain. The rain-snow line and transitional p-type are forecast to be across the heart of the CWA with the north (I-64 corridor) seeing more snow and the south (KY-80/Hal Rogers) seeing more rain. Areas in-between will see the bulk of the rain-snow mix. Light snow accumulations will be possible across the north where the bulk of the snow is forecast to be, and when the system ejects to the east and the transition to all snow takes place, light accumulations will spread southeastward.

High pressure starts to build back into the region for Wednesday and lingers into Thursday with moderately warm temperatures. However, models start to hint at another system bringing another dose of winter for the end of the work week and forecast period.

The period will be highlighted by two passing waves; the first will bring a glancing blow with the potential for flurries Monday afternoon. The second will bring better chances for Tuesday through Wednesday. High pressure will build in for the rest of the week with near-normal temperatures.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1202 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

Mixed low VFR/high MVFR ceilings will continue deteriorating to mainly MVFR early Sunday morning east of I-75 as lower ceilings and light snow showers/flurries drift in from the north and persist through daybreak Sunday. Gradual improvement back to VFR is expected on during the daylight hours on Sunday as the ceilings lift and dissipate. Winds will be northwesterly to variable at less than 10 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044-050>052.