textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms make a return late tonight and on Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

- Lower humidity and dry weather arrives by late Tuesday and lasts through Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1145 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026

Storms to the northwest continue to weaken in line with the lessening instability ion this part of the state at this hour. This is as depicted by the evening runs of the CAMs, but still some concern with the meso-boundary left behind for our area through the night and potential reactivation and training along it. The bulk of the rest of the JKL CWA away from this feature should see less activity and severe/flooding concerns but will be monitored through the night, as well. Otherwise, aside from tweaking PoPs, QPF, and thunder potential through the night no significant changes were made to the forecast. The latest obs and trends were incorporated into the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching western Kentucky this evening with a warm front now lifting toward the Ohio River north of the JKL CWA. A large cluster of thunderstorms is blowing up well to the northwest of the area with thick clouds heading east into the northern parts of the the area. These storms will potentially be a concern or eastern Kentucky later tonight, but the CAMs do weaken them significantly by the time they would get here towards midnight. Currently, temperatures are rather warm - running in the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile, amid light southerly winds, dewpoints are generally in the increasingly sticky mid to upper 60s for most places. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as tweaking the PoPs through the night per the latest CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 358 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026

Monday evening a cold front should be slowly progressing southeast of the forecast area. As a result lingering showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms may exist Tuesday morning across the southeastern portions of the forecast areas. Aside from this area of lingering showers and thunderstorms the rest of the area can expect a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s by the afternoon.

High pressure builds into the area through Tuesday afternoon allowing for clouds to slowly dissipate. Conditions will be primed across Eastern Kentucky for fog development Tuesday evening, as a weak pressure gradient, clearing skies, calm winds and expected dew point depressions within 3 degrees, will all culminate into temperatures cooling into the low to mid 50s in the valleys, and upper 60s to low 60s along ridge tops. Patchy fog with areas of river valley fog are expected before mixing out Wednesday morning.

Analyzing models 500-mb heights on Wednesday morning, An area of low pressure enters the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes region with a cold front trailing southwest into the Central Plains. Additionally, a secondary shortwave over the Oklahoma area works around a broad area of high pressure over Central Mexico, south of the Four Corners region. Eastern Kentucky will looks to remain dry Wednesday, with temperatures warming into the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Clouds are expected to increase heading into Thursday, as the cold front from the Great Lakes low progresses into the Ohio Valley, and is modeled just north of Kentucky Thursday morning. Additionally, a stationary boundary is modeled across the Southeast (just south of Tennessee). This will create isolated shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday.

Due to the fact there isn't much forcing across the Southeast US, forward progression of the Ohio valley cold front slows. By Friday morning the cold front is modeled across the forecast area leading to scattered shower and storm chances. Heading into the weekend, models and ensembles depict ridging across the Central Plains on Saturday, due to a strong upper level low entering the Pacific Northwest. A shortwave trapped under the ridge is expected to propagate east into the Ohio Valley Saturday and Sunday. THis keeps scattered shower and storm chances in the forecast through Sunday.

Thursday through Sunday, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 80s during the day, and mid to upper 60s at night. A warming trend looks likely, with the CPC highlighting Kentucky in their 6-10 day outlook with a 40-50% probability of above normal temperatures through the 30th of June.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026

VFR conditions will persist until late tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are then apt to arrive from the west/northwest overnight and probably stick around at least at the scattered level through the day Monday. There is still significant uncertainty concerning the evolution of the convection upstream, and thus exactly how it will eventually impact the JKL aviation forecast area. As a result, a generalized forecast for IFR conditions, at times during the precip, was included in the TAFs. Winds will be southwest at 5 to 10 kts through the day, Monday - with higher gusts near any thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.