textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front is expected to bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region on Wednesday. An isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out in far eastern Kentucky.

- There is the potential for frost formation late Thursday night into Friday morning, especially in sheltered rural valleys and hollows, away from mainstem rivers.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances arrive this weekend ahead of a pattern shift that favors much warmer than normal temperatures early next week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026

There is reasonable agreement with the upper level pattern for the long range period. Thursday, a cold front will have shifted southward and northwest flow will follow in the wake. This will provide a dry and cooler than normal day, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. High pressure and mid-level height rises will allow for clear and calm conditions to set up for Thursday night. This could lead to frost and or fog across the area depending on lingering moisture from Wednesday. Either way this later frost potential could lead to some agricultural concerns given the late nature of these colder valley temperatures.

This cooler pattern is quite short lived. Most of Friday looks to be dry, with temperatures quickly rebounding into the mid to upper 70s, as high pressure sags southeastward and return flow takes hold. Then another upper level shortwave ejects eastward and warm front pushes northward. This will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Commonwealth late Friday night into Saturday. The best chances for rainfall will be mainly north of the Hal Rogers Parkway and KY80, but in general we are looking at rain chances peaking at 30-50 percent.

The pattern shifts to being quite warm across eastern Kentucky late this weekend into early next week. This as height rises build northwest, with 588mb mid-level heights surging into eastern Kentucky. The deterministic NBM is on the hotter side of guidance showing temperatures in record high territory for the whole month of May, with the primary ensemble model blends showing most of the area at less than a 40 percent chance of seeing greater than 90 degrees on Monday for example. There is also uncertainty Tuesday, with how quickly a approaching wave and cold front make it eastward into the Ohio Valley. Either way there is a good shot for highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday through Tuesday, with some areas getting closer to 90 degrees especially Monday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the majority of the TAF period, although a cold front is forecast to approach from the NW tomorrow morning. Out ahead of it, efficient diurnal mixing yields variable, but breezy, winds and mostly clear skies. Those winds should remain light and variable tonight, then adopt more of a southwesterly component ahead of the approaching frontal boundary closer to sunrise tomorrow. Some forecast guidance introduces LLWS in this time frame, but the winds up to 850mb remain below 30 knots until diurnal mixing and shower chances arrive alongside the front. Given the model consensus for both the onset timing and magnitude of these winds, have opted to handle this with increasing surface winds/gusts after 08z. Confidence is increasing that rain showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two will affect the northern half of the forecast area tomorrow morning, but the exact arrival time of these showers remains nebulous. Multiple rounds of activity are possible, so this potential has been handled with PROB30s in this TAF package.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.