textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend continues through Friday.

- More widespread shower and storm chances enter the forecast on Friday night into Saturday and then again early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 657 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026

Updated T/Td and Sky grids based on latest trends, with the biggest impact upping the Sky grids in the north where there is more cumulus development than initially anticipated at this hour.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 532 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A more active weather pattern sets up over Eastern Kentucky for the long term forecast period, with multiple meaningful chances for area- wide rainfall through early next week. As a series of shortwave disturbances erode away at the dominant SE CONUS ridging, atmospheric flow will shift towards a more southwesterly orientation and set up deeper, more efficient moisture return. Precipitation chances peak as the surface frontal forcing associated with those disturbances arrive, but more isolated to scattered warm sector convection cannot be entirely ruled out either. Right now, confidence in rainfall is highest in the Friday night-Saturday afternoon and then the Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning time frames. Widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated this far east in the commonwealth, but the vigorous nature of the early-week system bears watching. Expect increasing forecast confidence regarding both the timing and intensity details as these events eventually enter the temporal range of higher-resolution forecast guidance.

The period opens on Friday morning with temperatures recovering from overnight ridge-valley splits. Surface winds out of the southwest and efficient diurnal mixing should allow temperatures to quickly warm towards highs in the 80s. BUFKIT momentum transfer soundings and recent CONS guidance suggest that wind gusts could exceed the baseline NBM guidance, as does pattern recognition. So, wind gust grids were blended towards the upper half of the teens, with breezy readings up to 20-25mph possible. Most of the area will likely remain dry during the afternoon hours, but those same soundings resolve the convective temperature thresholds being met across the CWA. This suggests that a few warm-sector pop-up showers/storms will be possible on Friday afternoon, although they will likely struggle to overcome a capping inversion.

More widespread rainfall is likely on Friday night into Saturday. As an upper level shortwave enters the Ohio River Valley, a 25-35 knot 850mb jet out of the southwest spreads over the forecast stream and saturates the column. Upstream convection will move into eastern potions of the commonwealth overnight, but the misalignment with the diurnal cycle and the lack of robust dynamics aloft suggest that this activity is poised to weaken upon approach. The related synoptic cold frontal passage has trended a little bit later, with FROPA poised to occur from NW to SE on Saturday now. Some guidance (like this morning's NAM) suggests that a narrow corridor of marginally favorable CAPE/shear ingredients could set up immediately ahead of the boundary in the wake of weaker Saturday AM showers, but there are many limiting factors that preclude confidence in severe storms on Saturday. Expect cloudy skies to prevail after the sun rises on Saturday. When coupled with the approaching frontal boundary and its CAA, this will mute Saturday's diurnal warming curve. AM lows near 60 and afternoon highs in the mid 70s limit the modeled instability profiles and thus any severe weather risk. As such, this initial round of activity could prove more beneficial than impactful. A widespread wetting rain is looking increasingly likely, and the 12z LREF resolves 50-70% probabilities for at least 0.25 inches of rain between Friday and Saturday evenings in Eastern Kentucky. Locally higher totals are possible where any thunderstorms or multiple rounds of rain occur, and the QPF grids currently call for between 0.4 and 0.6 inches of rain with this first round of activity.

Guidance collectively resolves shortwave ridging briefly building back into the forecast area in the wake of Saturday's frontal passage. If sufficient clearing is realized on Saturday night, valley fog could develop, as all the aforementioned rainfall will leave grounds wetter than they have been as of late. Sunday generally looks like a warmer and drier day, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70s/near 80. That ridging is generally expected to move east by Monday, but the exact timing remains uncertain. If it is a quicker propagation, return flow could lead to warm-air advection type showers in southern portions of the forecast area on Sunday evening. Confidence in this is low, but a quicker return to SW flow could lead to a more robust environment ahead of a second, stronger storm system early next week.

The upper- and mid-atmopsheric support associated with Monday and Tuesday's storm system looks more robust, with a sharper, negatively- tilted trough ejecting into the Ohio River Valley in this time frame. Surface cyclogenesis out ahead of this feature will pull a warm front north on Monday morning, yielding vertically stacked southerly to southwesterly flow in the atmosphere over Kentucky. Open warm sector convection cannot be ruled out, but the best frontal forcing will lag out to the west, closer to Paducah, during the daytime hours. As the parent features propagate east later that evening though, a more pronounced 45-60 knot 850mb jet will pump a plume of instability into areas immediately ahead of any organized prefrontal convection. However, this will not overlap with peak diurnal heating, which will likely relegate the highest severe potential to the west of the I-65 corridor. SPC has accordingly adjusted their long-range severe weather outlook further to the west than it was at this time yesterday, but the currently-available probabilistic ML/AI guidance resolve lower-end severe probs in our end of the state. As per usual, the severe risk in Eastern Kentucky on Monday night will likely be contingent upon the evolution of upstream activity. This system bears watching still, and interests are encouraged to stay tuned to future forecast updates.

Confidence is a lot higher that the region will see an additional round of highly-beneficial rainfall from this second system. The highest rain chances (already in the 80-90% range) will come ahead of the frontal passage on Monday night into Tuesday morning. The LREF probabilities for the same >= 0.25 inch threshold are above 80% across the entire forecast area between Monday and Tuesday afternoons. If this threshold is increased to 0.75 inches, the probabilities remain around the 40% threshold, and this particular ensemble does not take into account convective-allowing models at the current temporal range. Given that thunderstorms are likely to produce locally higher totals with this second round of activity, the QPF values in the grids are generally higher than they were in the first. A widespread 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain is currently reflected in the grids between Monday morning and Tuesday evening, and this should help mitigate ongoing drought and fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances taper off behind the system's well- defined frontal passage on Tuesday and give way to cooler mid-week temperatures to close out the month of April.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 717 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period under high pressure, with passing high clouds from time to time. Additionally, widely scattered high-based cumulus will likely develop toward midday Thursday and continue through the afternoon.

Winds have started to slacken and will diminish to 5 kts or less on ridges and more exposed locations by 02z to 03z, and likely decouple completely in sheltered valley locations. West to southwest winds will pick up a bit between 14z and 18z Thursday at 5 to 10 kts, with a few gusts to around 15 to 17 kt possible in the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.