textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Much lower probabilities for showers and storms will be in place during most of the upcoming work week.

- Heat and humidity will quickly become oppressive during the new week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 141 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

500-mb height analysis shows high pressure building across the Tennessee Valley, with the apex of the ridge axis over the Upper Great Lakes and Southern Ontario. Further west, a fairly large upper level trough extends south into the Great Basin, with multiple embedded upper level disturbances in the flow across the Northern Rockies.

As high pressure takes hold of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, skies over Eastern Kentucky will continue clearing out heading into the overnight hours Monday. With high pressure in such a close proximity, light winds, clearing skies, and little to no pressure gradient across the forecast area will lead to good conditions for decoupling valleys, and for development. As valleys decouple, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s, with low 70s along ridge tops. Patchy fog will mix out by mid morning before the area sees hot and muggy weather. With dew points forecasted in the 70s, along with temperatures in the low to mid 90s, diurnally driven storms may occur late in the afternoon/evening hours Tuesday through Saturday. These storms would be isolated to scattered in nature.

As briefly mentioned above, afternoon temperatures will peak in the low to mid 90s and cool into lower 70s at night. Those temperatures combined with model dewpoints remaining elevated in the upper 60s to mid 70s next week, hot and muggy conditions will also lead to Heat indices of 100F or higher Tuesday trough Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

We are seeing a mix of MVFR and VFR this afternoon to begin the TAF period. The storm activity from earlier has progressed southeast into Tennessee this afternoon. While most sites will improve through the afternoon, we could still see MVFR Cigs mix in at times with the passing lower cumulus. There have also been a few weak rain showers passing through parts of the area this afternoon, but left these out of the TAFs as little if any restrictions would be expected. The combination of rainfall and clearing skies will set the stage for fog and low stratus tonight into Monday morning. This will lead to sites going below minimums especially between 08z-12Z timeframe. The winds will be light and variable through the period at less than 10 knots.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.