textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record warmth is expected Friday through Sunday, with highs generally in the 60s and peak values potentially reaching 70 degrees.

- Multiple rounds of showers will impact the region starting tonight and continuing through Friday, though Saturday should remain mostly dry.

- Breezy southwest winds will gust to 25 mph on Friday, strengthening to over 30 mph on Sunday afternoon into Monday.

- A sharp cold front will cross the area late Sunday night, causing temperatures to plummet to well below freezing by Monday and changing leftover showers to flurries.

UPDATE

Issued at 1130 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did touch up the PoPs per radar and CAMs consensus through the night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows low pressure approaching from the west with its warm front lifting through eastern Kentucky. This will be a focus point for showers developing later tonight and serve as a distinction between the very warm air to its south side and the still mild conditions to the northeast. Currently, temperatures range from near 60 degrees southwest to the low 50s in the far north. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints vary from the upper 50s southwest to the mid 30s in the north. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. Did also touch up the PoPs through the night per radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 354 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025

The long-term period opens Friday morning with a flattening 500 hPa ridge over the heart of the CONUS, while longwave troughing lingers along the West Coast. Multiple pieces of vorticity energy are ejecting from the trough and into the ridge, with a notable piece of vorticity energy over the Upper Midwest/Western Great Lakes at 12z Friday. This will be mirrored at the surface by a weak area of low pressure over Illinois, with a warm front stretched southeastward across the Central Appalachians and a trailing surface trough/dryline extending back into the Texas Big Bend. Closer to home, guidance suggests that eastern Kentucky will be bisected by the aforementioned warm front come sunrise Friday.

Model agreement is remarkably good synoptically through 00z Sunday. The surface low will skirt north of the Ohio River during the day on Friday to over the Northern Panhandle of West Virginia, keeping eastern Kentucky in the warm sector under a very mild return flow (LREF Mean 925 hPa temperatures peak around 15C). The GFS mixed layer momentum transfer values from BUFKIT are in the vicinity of 25 kts during the afternoon, supporting breezy conditions. As that low departs, it will cause the trailing trough/boundary to sag through eastern Kentucky Friday night, with a shallow drier and cooler air mass (sfc to 900 mb) seeping back into the JKL CWA under rebounding 500 hPa heights (LREF Mean 925 hPa temperatures drop back to between 11-15C north to south, though the GEFS are the primary ensemble skewing toward cooler values). Little forcing with this boundary will mean only some light precipitation chances.

The agreement in the models deteriorates on Sunday with regard to how quickly the ridging breaks down and also the strength/depth of the upper level troughing that will shift eastward in two semi-distinct northern/southern pieces. The northern energy is stronger and digs as it dives southeast toward the Great Lakes through the day on Sunday. A new wave of low pressure will develop ahead of this trough, initially tracking east over the Dakotas before being replaced by a much more powerful low racing from the vicinity of the Oklahoma Panhandle around 00z Sunday to the Southern Great Lakes by 00z Monday. A potent low-level jet will develop on Sunday with this system's warm sector, bringing renewed warmth (LREF mean 925 hPa temperatures back to around 14-15C, areawide) across the Ohio Valley and even the chance of a few elevated thunderstorms with a northward surging warm front. The GFS Bufkit mixed layer momentum transfer values spike substantially ahead of the cold front, reaching 30 to 40 kts by Sunday evening. In addition to the strong winds, guidance shows a few tens to a few hundreds of J/kg of MUCAPE with high shear; so, strongly forced low-topped convection or perhaps even a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out as the low pressure system drags an arctic cold front through the Ohio Valley late Sunday night or early Monday. The air mass change will be stark with LREF mean 925 hPa temperatures dropping to around -10C Monday night, though some colder members approach -15C to -20C. Shallow arctic air masses are often difficult for the models to fully resolve this far out, so stay tuned for later updates as the timing and magnitude of the arctic air mass become more apparent. Raw model guidance highs on Monday are highly uncertain due to differences in the timing of the frontal passage (non-bias-corrected 24/12z model guidance 2-m maximum temperatures for Monday are 35F and 62F at KJKL in the GFS and ECMWF, respectively). The 12z Canadian shows a strong lake-enhanced moisture streamer developing off of Lake Michigan by Monday night, but low-level flow remains westerly enough to divert most of the plume into West Virginia--something to at least keep an eye on if the low-level flow turned more northerly, though. There is substantial disagreement in the models as to how deep and persistent the trough actually becomes over the eastern half of the continent on Tuesday, though the overall mean guidance would support a fairly rapid easing of the most bitter cold.

In sensible weather terms, well above normal to near record warmth will prevail from Friday through Sunday (ECMWF EFI values of 0.6 to 0.8+ indicating unusual to highly unusual warmth both day and night) before temperatures tumble well below normal early next week. Widespread highs in the 60s can be expected each day through Sunday, with Friday and Sunday having the best chances of reaching 70F+ in warmer locales, though a few 70F+ readings still cannot be ruled out on Saturday closer to the TN-KY border. Rain showers and breezy conditions (southwest gusts to around 25 mph) can be expected at times Friday into Friday night, with drier, sunnier, and calmer weather on Saturday. The clouds and showers return again during the day on Sunday along with the gusty winds (30+ mph) and even the possibility of a few thunderstorms. Temperatures crash late Sunday night into Monday, with showers perhaps tapering off as a little snow or lingering flurries. Expect high temperatures struggling to reach the freezing mark by Tuesday, potentially moderating back towards normal for Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025

Aside from some MVFR CIGs at SYM, VFR conditions are occurring across TAF sites with this issuance. However, a warm front is lifting northeast through the area bringing increasing amounts of scattered showers to eastern Kentucky later this night and into Thursday. Once showers develop, they'll persist for the bulk of the period. Along with the shower activity, CIGS will decrease and all terminals likely fall into categorical IFR, or worse, for Christmas morning. Winds behind the front will generally be southwest at 10 kts with occasionally higher gusts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 354 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025

Record high maximums and minimums at JKL on Friday (12/26) are 70F (2016) and 55F (2015); on Sunday (12/28), 71F (1984) and 56F (1996). Record high maximums and minimums at LOZ for Friday (12/26) are 71F (2015) and 56F (1982); on Sunday (12/28), 72F (1984/2015) and 53F (1954/2024). Some or all of these records could be challenged.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.