textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms return Sunday and Monday as a slow-moving cold front arrives. A few storms could produce isolated strong winds and localized flash flooding.

- The heat wave breaks next week, with daily highs returning to near-normal levels in the mid to upper 80s alongside daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 739 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026

No significant changes made to the forecast as it has largely remained on track. The only changes made have been to the PoP grids to keep in-line with radar trends. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 447 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026

The models are in general agreement with the long wave pattern becoming less amplified over the CONUS through mid-week, before amplifying once again into next weekend. Even smaller scale features start out fairly well agreed upon by the models, but as is usually the case, this breaks down with time. Fortunately, a typical summer-time pattern will roll on across eastern Kentucky, although with more seasonable temperatures in place, along with the threat of daily diurnally-driven convection.

A positively-tilted trough will be aligned from New England through the Ohio Valley and across the middle/lower Mississippi Valley. A closed low will be embedded within this trough, in the vicinity of Arkansas. The ECMWF has had this feature for several model runs, with the GFS more recently latching onto it. At the surface, broad low pressure will be positioned across the Ohio/West Virginia border, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped southwest through eastern Kentucky. PoPs will generally peak on Tuesday across the area, given the proximity of the aforementioned features, with scattered to numerous convection forecast to develop. As the trough and surface front weaken mid-week, PoPs will lessen across the area, with a general minimum forecast by Thursday.

The next surge of moisture and higher PWAT air will move in Thursday night into Friday, as troughing reestablishes itself over the Ohio Valley, with a more defined surface front pushing southeast towards the Commonwealth. Models show more disagreement with the timing and amplitude of these features, but expect a general increase in PoPs late Thursday night and especially Friday. Some higher efficient rainers will be possible during this period. The boundary will gradually exit to our south through this weekend, although deeper moisture does seem to be diminishing more decisively with time per the LREF climatological PWATs. As such, the blended guidance PoPs may be a bit generous. Temperatures will be averaging closer to seasonable normals through the end of the week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lows mainly in the 65 to 70 degree range.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026

VFR conditions are occurring across all TAF sites with this issuance as surface high pressure remains dominant. Convection is starting to wane; however, can't rule out a lingering stray thunderstorm through sunset or a little after. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight but locally dense river valley fog that may sneak into KLOZ and KSME bringing MVFR conditions through 11Z. Shower and storm chances arrive early Monday afternoon bringing potential categorical reduction and gusty and erratic outflow winds. Outside of convection, winds are forecast to be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.