textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A round of light precipitation, mainly rain, is expected tonight into Sunday.

- A more significant precip event is expected Monday night and Tuesday, with a little bit better potential for wintery precipitation, especially north of the Mountain Parkway.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 200 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025

The period begins Monday morning with dry weather as surface high pressure retreats to the north and east during the day. Attention then quickly turns to the next system approaching from the west. Surface cyclogenesis will occur across the Deep South and generally track just inland across the Southeast CONUS before moving up the East Coast. With a southerly track, we will remain in colder air and will have a higher threat of wintery precip, especially in our northern counties. At this point it looks like a nuisance type system, but there will likely be continued fluctuations to the outlook. The highest probability (50 to 60 percent chance) of significant snow accumulations will be mainly along and north of Interstate 64 for the Monday night-Tuesday time period, according to the operational NBM valid early afternoon Saturday, with values decreasing to 20 percent roughly along a Mount Vernon-Jackson- Paintsville line. South of Interstate 64, the best chance of seeing snow seems to be during the morning and early afternoon Tuesday as the column cools from the top down with the arrival of the upper trough and before precipitation ends from the west.

Once it passes, dry weather looks to occur Wednesday and Thursday, with another system arriving to end the week Friday into Friday night. Though models as of now show this system more disorganized than the early week system, most models do show overrunning precip as far north as KY, but with an atmosphere probably warm enough for rain.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025

We are starting the period VFR under the influence of southeast flow and surface high pressure off to the east. The remainder of the afternoon into this evening we will continue to see increasing clouds and these will lower overtime into the MVFR level or lower at times. A storm system will move across the Ohio Valley and will bring light rain into the region tonight. Overall not expecting too much in the way of lower Vis right now given the light nature, but did add in a Prob30 for some high-end MVFR Vis not being out of the question. We will see a period of LLWS tonight given the lower wind speeds at the surface. The winds will mostly be 10 knots of less tonight and becoming more southwest by Sunday morning. We could see a bump up in gust late morning into early afternoon Sunday, with the arrival of the front in the 15 to 20 knot range.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.