textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal high temperatures and seasonably chilly low temperatures for valley locations continue into mid-week. - Rain chances return on Wednesday evening and linger into Friday as a developing weather system crosses the area and then strengthens to our east.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much colder air moves into eastern Kentucky on the back side of that system.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 305 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2026

The extended period opens Wednesday night with a significant pattern shift. A northern-stream shortwave diving out of the Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley will carve out a deep, anomalous longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS by Thursday. An attendant cold front will sweep across the Commonwealth late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, bringing increasing cloud cover and scattered to widespread rain.

Temperatures Thursday will likely follow a non-diurnal curve. With the cold front passing through during the morning hours, daytime highs may be achieved around or shortly after daybreak, followed by falling or steady temperatures through the afternoon under moderate cold air advection. While high-resolution guidance has trended slightly warmer ahead of the boundary, opted to stick with the NBM blend, yielding low 50s across the Bluegrass and upper 50s in the Big Sandy areas. As the trough deepens and strengthens overhead, temperatures will continue to drop, with Thursday night lows in the low to mid-30s.

The core of the upper trough will pivot just north of the region heading into Friday, pushing 500 mb heights below the 5th climatological percentile and ushering in a brisk Canadian air mass on breezy northwest winds. Highs Friday and Saturday will struggle to climb out of the 40s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 20s. Lingering post-frontal and upslope showers could mix with or transition to the first flurries of the season across the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky Thursday night into Friday, and again Friday night.

Upstream from this longwave trough, a high-amplitude ridge will build across the region, ushering in surface high pressure Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually recover each day under dry weather and fair skies. Local 500 mb heights will rebound from below the 5th percentile on Friday to near the 80th percentile by Tuesday evening. Temperatures will gradually warm from the low 50s on Sunday to the upper 50s and low 60s by Tuesday, while nighttime lows remain at or slightly below freezing.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST MON NOV 9 2026

A ridge of sfc high pressure will remain in place across the area through the period resulting in mainly VFR conditions. Valley fog could affect locations along the larger creeks, rivers, and lakes during the pre-dawn hours, with MVFR to localized IFR, or worse, conditions. This is not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Winds will be light through the period - generally out of the southwest and west.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.