textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather and widespread rain shower chances return late tonight into Sunday.

- Storms on Sunday could produce locally heavy rain, potentially leading to localized flooding, along with strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

- Expect cooler than normal temperatures to begin the work week as broad troughing dominates the weather pattern aloft.

- Unsettled weather is poised to return for the middle to later part of next week. Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday, and locally heavy rain is possible Wednesday night through Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026

There is reasonable agreement among the various model suites to begin the long term period. That said, we will see a drier and cooler airmass settling across the Ohio Valley Monday under northwest flow. This will keep highs in the low to mid 70s for many locations and this is about 10 degrees below normal for JKL. This drier weather will roll on at least through Tuesday making for a good time for outdoor activities.

After a drier and cooler pattern, we will see a warm front progress northward by midweek. This will usher in a warmer and moist airmass across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This front will then sag southward as a cold front by Thursday. The pattern will likely be more mesoscale driven at times, with characteristics of a MCS like pattern. This makes predictability on the lower side, but either way the pattern will become increasingly more active especially by Thursday given the synoptic features at play. Some of the guidance suggests decent chance of seeing MUCAPE values climb to around 2000- 3000 J/kg Thursday afternoon. The effective shear will be a bit more lack luster at around 30-35 knots, but this could allow for at least some organization of convection that develops. Overall the main threat at this point would be damaging winds given the high freezing levels noted while sampling area forecast soundings. That said, there would be a risk of heavy rainfall as well, with the aforementioned high freezing levels and PWATs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range (Values running around 90th percentile or higher for this time of year). There is also a notable strengthening 850 mb jet through the late afternoon and evening. This setup bares watching through the week to see how the guidance trends. This boundary will move southward to end the week and this would lead to drier weather by late next week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected areawide into tonight under passing high clouds. Some valley fog is likely, but is not expected to impact TAF sites. Otherwise, convection likely moves into the area from the west between 06z and 12z Sunday, and prevailing and PROB30 groups have been issued to cover the onset of this activity through the remainder of the TAF period. Brief reductions to MVFR or lower conditions are possible as this activity moves across TAF sites.

Winds will remain light and variable through ~06z, then will gradually increase from the southwest through the remainder of the period, but generally remain at or below 10 kts sustained. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near and within any showers and storms late tonight through the end of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.