textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cold front will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area today.

- Some storms on Saturday afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and even some hail.

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air will then arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows weak high pressure over eastern Kentucky and this is working to keep the winds light and clear the skies as the isolated showers continue to fade out. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 70s to low 80s with some valleys reporting mid 70s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are in the mid 60s to lower 70s - highest and stickiest south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to drop the PoPs off through the rest of the evening and overnight. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026

The long term period will start with a relatively comfortable air mass in place, by August standards. Surface high pressure supplying the cooler and drier air should be ridging from western Ontario to the lower Ohio Valley, while low pressure (surface and aloft) is just north of the Great Lakes. The upper trough surrounding the low will cover most of the eastern CONUS. Our lowest dew points from this air mass are forecast from Monday into Tuesday, with readings in the 50s, also allowing for lows in that range. In fact, the NBM and MEXMOS are only a couple degrees off the record of 55 at JKL on the 25th.

The low and the trough weaken by midweek as they drift east, and a warming trend gets underway locally as geopotential heights rise. The forecast then gets messier moving into the late week time frame. Another upper low or trough is expected to move east southeast to southeast Ontario, which will deepening a larger scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS again. This supports a cold front to move southeast through the Midwest. There is not agreement on the timing of this front to arrive here, or on the surface pattern setting up in advance. At this point, only a generalized forecast is practical, with an increase in moisture/dew points and POP ahead of the front late in the week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026

Fog has formed in the valleys, especially south of KIOB and KSYM and it had begun to spread to near KLOZ as of issuance time. With a deepening nocturnal inversion, this may lift into most or all of the remaining TAF sites, at least briefly, between 08Z to 12Z with MVFR to IFR if not lower reductions at times. Fog should lift and dissipate between 12Z and 14Z and give way to cumulus development by 16Z. A cold front and disturbance will approach during peak heating and result in isolated to scattered convection between about 17Z and 01Z. Some of the storms could contain strong to damaging wind gusts and some gustier winds were included in a PROB30 group for KIOB and KSYM although PROB30 groups for thunder were included for the remaining TAF locations for a few hours between 18Z and 00Z. Winds will be light and variable to begin the period, but become WSW to W at 5 to 10KT between 15Z and 00Z. Winds will trend to the northwest behind the front to end the period and slacken. Strong gusts as previously noted in excess of 30KT are possible with any thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.