textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier air arrives and settles in through the first half of the week.

- A Frost Advisory remains in effect through 10 AM EDT this morning. - Frost is also possible tonight and Tuesday night, with a few of the normally colder and sheltered valley locations likely experiencing a freeze tonight and/or Tuesday night. - Temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday and Saturday and potentially near 20 degrees above normal on Sunday, with mainly rain-free weather expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 745 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026

Hourly grids were updated for recent satellite and observation trends. This led to some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures with the main change to include a bit of fog in the river valleys over the next couple of hours.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 438 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026

The upper level ridging should shift into the eastern Conus at midweek with a general trend of rising 500 mb heights for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. At the same time, the center of the sfc high should shift into the mid Atlantic and eventually across the Northeast and into the Atlantic through ridging should continue to extend southwest into the Appalachians and Southeast. By this point, the upper trough that will have moved into the Plains by late Tuesday should move to the Lower MS Valley while the upper low that is currently nearing the BC coast to Northwest will have move across western Canada and portions of the Northwest and Northern Rockies and into western Ontario to the upper MS Valley and near the western Great Lakes by late Wednesday night. A sfc low associated with that system should reach Ontario by dawn on Thursday with the trialing frontal zone extending across the Great Lakes to near the TX/OK panhandle area and then into the western Conus.

After some height falls late Wednesday night, guidance generally agrees in a trend in rising 500 mb heights for Thursday into the day on Friday as upper ridging extends from the Southeast to mid Atlantic coast to east of the Northeast coast. This will occur as an upper low tracks around the ridging into Ontario and Quebec upper troughing remains over the Central Conus. This upper trough or shortwaves moving through it may near the Lower OH Valley by later Friday with these crossing the area to end the week. Meanwhile by the end of the week, guidance generally has upper ridging taking shape from the GUlf into the Central Conus/MS Valley with that ridging shifting across the Commonwealth, Southeast, Central to Southern Appalachians and Western to Central Great Lakes to end the period. Another period of height rises is expected again from later Saturday to Sunday with this occurring downstream of upper troughing evolving over the western Conus that approaches the Central Conus to end the weekend.

Although the sfc frontal zone may sag to near the OH River Friday night to early Saturday, at this point, eastern KY is expected to remain in the warm sector with the boundary lifting back north as the weekend progresses. This boundary and passing disturbances may allow for a stray shower or storm in the north Friday afternoon or Saturday afternoon, but the long term period should be mainly rain free for the region.

Another night with a potential freeze for eastern and southeastern valleys is anticipated for Tuesday night and an additional headline may eventually be needed for eastern portions of the CWA. Otherwise, winds should become more southeasterly to southerly and result in a return to temperatures above normal. This flow will have a downslope component off of the higher terrain of SW VA and eastern TN and despite the increase in temperatures, the airmass will moisten more slowly another day of low humidities is anticipated. This trend should continue into Thursday with an additional afternoon with low humidity as well as temperatures climb a few degrees and the downslope component remains.

Temperatures in the warm sector should continue a climb further into the 70s for Friday or nearly 10 degrees above normal. Highs rising into the 80s are probable with the building ridge and the area remaining in the warm sector fr the weekend. Highs may reach 20 degrees above normal by Sunday. Additional ridge/valley temperature splits are also probable for Wed night to Saturday night with valleys potentially falling to upper 30s for Wed night, to around 40 Thu night, and the 40s for Fri night and Sat night.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026

Other than some initial MVFR and IFR reductions and in some cases locally reductions in valley fog, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Initially there will be some passing high clouds and then a few low level clouds are anticipated as high pressure shifts south of the area, and a moisture starved cold front sags across eastern KY between about 16Z and 00Z. After light and variable winds to begin the period, winds will pick up between through 18Z to the 5 to 14KT range from west to northwest, with winds becoming northwest areawide with gusts to around 20KT near and behind the front. No ceilings are forecast during the period and winds will slacken again during the 23Z to 04Z period with VFR continuing as another sfc high builds in from the upper MS Valley.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.