textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal high temperatures and seasonably chilly low temperatures for valley locations remains into midweek. - Rain chances return on Wednesday evening and linger into Friday as a potent weather system crosses the area and then strengthens to our east.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much colder air moves into eastern Kentucky on the back side of that system.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 313 PM EST MON NOV 9 2026

The long term period will begin with significant changes in progress over the eastern CONUS. Most of Wednesday won't seem much different in terms of perceptible weather, but increasing clouds will be a sign. A shortwave trough moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest will advance to the Midwest by Wednesday morning, supporting a developing surface low there. This shortwave will get picked up by a larger trough dropping south out of Ontario, which then evolves into a very deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS. This supports further deepening of the surface low, with eventual coastal development likely as it shifts east. Models are coming into better agreement for the surface low to track by just our north through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday night, with the system's cold front passing through our area sometime around dawn on Thursday. Although it doesn't look like significant gulf moisture will make it here ahead of the system, the system's strength should overcome the lack of moisture, with rain breaking out anyway as the low and its cold front approach.

As the intense and still deepening low departs to the east, its powerful circulation will pull much colder air southward over our area, likely resulting in steady or falling temperatures during the day Thursday. The initial deep moisture with the approach of the low and cold front will also depart to the east, but shallower low level moisture will linger in the upslope cold air advection, supporting the potential for light precip at times, especially in the upslope favored area of southeast KY. It may become cold enough for the remaining rain to mix with or change to snow. The 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement for cooling, now indicating the lower atmosphere becoming marginally cold enough for snow (1000-850mb thickness of ~1300) Friday morning. There is also an interesting feature in the form a shortwave trough approaching from the northwest Friday afternoon or evening with a possible enhancement of deep moisture in the cold air, as well as a potential moisture plume off of Lake Michigan. However, won't get too excited over these features yet, since it is still four days out and easily subject to change in subsequent runs. The official forecast at this time will still keep any snow accumulations from the system very light and mainly confined to the highest elevations near the VA border.

Surface ridging eventually builds in from the west during the weekend and then persists into Monday, as the deep upper trough also pulls out to the east. This will eventually lead to clearing, but the timing is uncertain. The official forecast may be a bit too fast to break up clouds on Friday night and Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST MON NOV 9 2026

A ridge of sfc high pressure will remain in place across the area through the period. This will result in mainly VFR conditions through the period. Valley fog could affect locations along the larger creeks, rivers, and lakes, with MVFR to localized IFR or worse conditions, though this is not expected to affect the TAF sites. Winds will be light through the period averaging between the southwest and west.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.