textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather through this evening, though locally dense river valley fog is expected early this morning.

- A cold front brings scattered to widespread thunderstorms tonight and Thursday, with a few strong wind gusts and localized heavy rain and flooding possible.

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air arrives this weekend and continues into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 901 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026

Based on satellite obs, have updated the very near term for fog and low clouds holding on longer this morning in southeast KY.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026

Some showers and storms will be possible at the start of the extended period ahead of a sagging cold front. The primary corridor for pre-frontal convection will initially reside along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor toward the Tennessee border. Aloft, the broad pattern features a ridge over the western CONUS and a trough over the eastern CONUS. With broad troughing modeled over the Great Lakes/Northeast and a distinct shortwave axis extending south- southwestward through OH/IN/KY, mid-level forcing will lag behind the surface boundary. This lingering PVA combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates may support isolated to scattered post-frontal convection Friday afternoon, with the greatest chances remaining east of the Pottsville Escarpment. Given weak ambient shear, any activity that develops should remain pulse-like. While PWATs remain elevated between 1.3 and 1.6 inches (50th to 75th percentile) into Friday evening, significant mid-level drying will filter in from the northwest, as reflected by modeled 700 mb RH dropping into the teens. Clearing skies, calm winds, and strong subsidence/capping under high pressure will favor areas of fog overnight Friday, particularly within the river valleys.

An embedded shortwave within the longwave trough is modeled to dig out of northwestern Canada into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley over the weekend. A reinforcing cold front will cross Kentucky, though timing discrepancies maintain uncertainty in POPs. Regardless, precipitation chances should remain isolated, with the highest potential staying northeast of the forecast area.

High pressure briefly builds across eastern Kentucky early next week, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. Dew points lowering into the upper 50s and lower 60s will be a welcome relief from recent values in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Dry weather persists through Tuesday before another shortwave propagates out of the Upper Midwest into the region mid-week, bringing isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances back to the forecast.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and will last well into tonight. Showers will be possible overnight into Thursday morning, and a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out. Valley fog may also develop during the same time frame if clouds aren't too extensive. The precip or fog would bring sub-FVR conditions. During the mid- late morning timeframe, an MVFR ceiling is also a possibility.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.