textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers will combine with the lingering patches of snow for northern parts of the area generating areas of dense fog that will linger into the overnight hours.

- The approach and passage of a cold front will result in a period of showers tonight, followed by seasonably cooler temperatures to finish out the week.

- There is the potential for a soaking rain this weekend, with the highest rainfall totals generally expected in southern Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 1040 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026

It seems that the initial wave of showers has tapped out the instability for this part of the state this evening so have gone ahead and taken out the thunderstorm chances. Also, the showers falling in places with lingering snow cover is resulting in areas of dense fog. An SPS has been issued for this concern into the late night hours. Have updated the forecast for these adjustments, as well, and also included the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These tweaks adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a cold front settling south through eastern Kentucky this evening with showers starting to develop generally west to east along Interstate 64. This front is expected to continue to become more active with convective cells potentially becoming momentarily strong - some thunder or small hail is not out of the question - as it drops south through the area during the rest of this evening. Currently, temperatures are running quite mild in the mid 50s north and the low to mid 60s across most of the area south of I-64. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts, dewpoints are quite moist - for this time of year - in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids while tweaking the near term PoPs per the latest radar developments. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 307 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026

Looking at 500-mb features across CONUS, There's low pressure over the Northeast US, and Southeastern Canada, a ridge of high pressure over the Central Plains, and another trough of low pressure off the Southern California coast.

Through Thursday, a subtle shortwave will work its way through the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to increased cloud cover through the day. There is some frontogenetic forcing that could lead to some rain or snow shower development, however with dew points expected to be in the mid to upper 20s, while surface temperatures remain in the lower 30s, the lowest levels may remain too dry to see precipitation aloft make it to the surface. At current, POPs remain under 10% and at most, maybe some drizzle or flurries could occur. Temperatures should generally be in the 40s through the day, cooling into the mid to 20s for most. Some areas in the northeast may dip into the teens.

Through Friday, and upper-level low, the one off the cost of Southern California, will progress east into the 4-corners area of the Southwest, and eventually into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Models and ensembles begin to diverge a bit on the strength, phasing, track, and more of the finer details, however the overall thinking is this upper-level low will progress into the Southeast US, with rain ahead of a warm front occurring across Kentucky. At current, amounts are trending downward, but that is likely due to the uncertainty of the lows track. Current remaining snow and ice should whittle down from warmer temperatures earlier in the forecast period. This should help mitigate river flooding, with no river forecast points currently expected to reach Action stage. The Kentucky River at Heidelberg is the currently the closest forecast point to Action, but still remains 2 feet under. This system looks to move east of the area by Sunday night. Temperatures Friday, will generally range from the upper 40s across the north to lower 50s to the south. At night, temperatures cool into the mid to upper 20s across valleys, and upper 20s to low 30s along ridge tops. Temperatures through the weekend generally remain in the 50s through the day and near 40 at night.

Monday and Tuesday will see quiet weather as a ridge of high pressure builds back into the region. Warm air advection will lead to temperatures warming into mid 50s to low 60s Monday, and the low to mid 60s on Tuesday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period. MVFR ceilings with showers will continue to settle south with time - dipping into IFR conditions towards dawn for many sites. The rain will taper off from north to south overnight, but MVFR (and probably some IFR) ceilings look to last longer. Improvement back to VFR on Wednesday could be slow, especially over the northern terminals. Winds will be southwest at 10 kts with higher gusts along and ahead of the showers before turning more northwesterly and becoming light (less than 10 kts) later tonight - continuing through the day, Wednesday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.