textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent through early Sunday, followed by much lower probabilities during most of the work week. Heavy rain may lead to flash flooding.

- Heat and humidity will become oppressive during the new week.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 115 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

The long term period opens Sunday night with the area transitioning from a fairly active pattern, into a quiet yet hot one through next week. Analyzing modeled 500-mb heights, high pressure remains positioned over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, with the ridge axis extending further north, through the Upper Great Lakes and into Southern Ontario. Farther upstream to the west, a large scale trough positioned over the Intermountain West, features a few disturbances over the Northern Great Basin.

Across Eastern Kentucky, isolated to scattered storm activity may last through Sunday night through Monday afternoon, as a stationary front just north of the forecast area, retrogrades back west as a cold front from being on the lee side of the ridge axis. These generally remain under a 25% of occurrence, located in the Upper Cumberland or southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins. With high pressure juxtaposed near Kentucky, storm chances remain very isolated Tuesday and Wednesday Scattered to widespread storm chances return towards the end of the week (Thursday and beyond), with shortwaves modeled to eject out of the western trough towards the Ohio Valley. The return of active weather looks plausible heading into the nation's 250th anniversary of independence.

Temperatures will generally warm into the low to mid 90s during the afternoons and cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s at night through the extended period. Models depict dewpoints remaining elevated in the upper 60s to mid 70s next week, leading to hot and muggy conditions. Heat indices of 100-105F remain possible Monday trough Friday next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

At issuance time, the latest wave of convection is washing over eastern Kentucky but also is on its way out - clearing from southwest to northeast. A mix of aviation conditions were reported across the region at issuance time due to the pcpn. Periods of MVFR/IFR reductions and the small potential for thunder on station will continue to plague much of the area through the rest of the night. Some tempo and PROB30 groups were used for this and additional rounds of convection should occur after 12Z, as well. Overall, showers/thunderstorms will be a possibility throughout the period, but there remains rather low confidence in timing/location, especially from 12Z onward and this continues to preclude using more specificity than PROB30 in the TAFs. Away from any storms, winds will be light and variable through mid morning before picking up from the southwest at 5 to 10 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104- 106.

Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ058-068-069-079-080- 083>088-107>120.