textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier weather returns to the area through Monday afternoon.

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region between Monday night and Wednesday morning, leading to widespread rain chances on Tuesday.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will settle into the region for the beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 456 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

The long-term forecast period begins with the approach of a surface low from the southwest. The upper-level trough from the short-term period will eject into the Ohio Valley, advecting a warm front through the area beginning late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers associated with this frontal system are expected throughout the day Tuesday. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible across the CWA ahead of a quick-moving cold front. The severe weather threat appears limited as forecast CAPE is marginal and vertical wind shear is almost nonexistent.

The upper-level trough responsible for Tuesdays surface low will be absorbed into the mean flow, but simultaneously, another stronger trough is forecast to dive out of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. This second system is forecast to move through the Great Lakes and drag another cold front through the area throughout the day Wednesday before quickly exiting the area late Wednesday night. Through the two frontal passages (Tuesdays and Wednesdays), total rainfall accumulation will range from approximately 0.60 inches along and west of the I-75 corridor to 0.30 inches east of the I-75 corridor.

Behind the exiting front on Wednesday night, surface high pressure is forecast to build into the region and remain in place from Thanksgiving through late Saturday night before another system is progged to move in from the west.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a couple of mid-week surface low-pressure systems, followed by high pressure building into the region on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant and seasonal up until Thursday, when the cold front ushers in a significantly colder air mass for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Behind the front, overnight low temperatures will bottom out in the 20s for the mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before beginning a warming trend for Sunday morning.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 628 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

Surface high pressure is present over the area with this TAF issuance; however, widespread dense fog has developed and is causing a reduction in category to all TAF sites. Over the next couple of hours, fog will dissipate and all sites will return to VFR. Light and variable winds are expected for the TAF window.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.