textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue at times into the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is possible through this weekend, especially through Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area through early Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 231 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

Attention in the long-term period will focus on an expansive upper high across the north-central CONUS and a cut-off low separated from the mid-latitude jet stream by this high, which will meander near the Mid-South and Lower TN Valley region Sunday into Monday before slowly retrograding westward on the south side of the ~600-dm mid- level high to the north towards midweek. Uncertainty increases mid to late next week in the strength and orientation of this high, and whether the cut-off low can find a weakness in the ridge to move back north and/or east with time, which will play a role in sky cover and PoPs for our area.

The forecast starts Sunday with the area still likely within the warm sector ahead of the mid-level low, with a surface front along or north of the Interstate 64 corridor moving west and northwest with time through Sunday night. With a humid air mass remaining in place, expect continued scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development and a continued isolated excessive rainfall and flash flood threat for most of the area, especially along and south of Interstate 64.

PWs and thus low-level moisture and instability trend lower with time Monday into Tuesday as low-level southeasterly flow and resulting downslope drying increases, with the stacked low pressure system retrograding across the Mid-South region. Thus, PoPs trend sharply lower from Monday to Tuesday. A modest increase in PoPs is then suggested by the NBM mid to late week, mainly in the form of diurnally driven convection each afternoon into early evening. PoPs will be dependent on the exact placement of the aforementioned cut- off high and trapped mid-level low and how much moisture return and instability exists across eastern Kentucky.

High temperatures to begin the period within a humid, high-PW environment will start in the lower 80s Sunday into Monday, but will trend warmer through the week as the area comes increasingly under the influence of upper ridging and humidity levels moderate with lower PoPs. Morning lows will generally not change much, but will likely be lowest Tuesday morning (mid-60s with some possibly cooler valleys) when humidity levels overall will be at their lowest level of the next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

To this point, the expected showers and storms has been a little underwhelming. Current observations show the back half of the MCV moving across Eastern Kentucky now, expected to impact KJKL over the next few hours, followed by KSJS after. Subsidence behind the MCV has led to some drying conditions further west. As such showers were taken out of the KSME, KLOZ, KIOB and KSYM TAFs at least the prevailing. Left the existing Prob30s in the TAFs as something could development, but current Conditions don't reflect a Vis reduction. Ceilings remain low in MVFR and occasionally IFR categories. Rounds of showers and storms are still expected later this afternoon and overnight leading to the busy nature of the TAFs. Winds will remain light and variable before becoming light out of the southwest.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.