textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A dry cold front passing through later tonight will lock in the colder temperatures for eastern Kentucky with single digits lows expected for most places Monday night.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal will be in place over the area through Tuesday night.

- The next chance for snow will come on Wednesday night, although accumulation potential appears limited.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2026

Quiet, but bitterly cold, sensible weather is expected at the beginning of the long term forecast period in Eastern Kentucky. Cold air advection and clearing skies in the wake of Monday's FROPA favor efficient radiational cooling overnight, and much of the area is poised to experience minimum temperatures in the single digits. Monday night's low temperatures are 15-20 degrees colder than climatological averages for mid January, but confidence in exceeding cold weather advisory criteria is low. Winds are generally forecast to decrease in magnitude as a surface pressure system nudges into the commonwealth overnight. The coldest thermometer readings may not overlap with the strongest winds, and MinT guidance actually ticked a bit upwards in the most recent model runs. Subzero apparent temperatures are most likely in the open valleys of the Bluegrass region and atop the highest mountains, but widespread, prolonged wind chills below -5 degrees are not anticipated. Regardless of headline product issuance, it is going to be very cold outside during the Tuesday morning commute. Interests with outdoor plans in this time frame are encouraged to review cold weather preparedness information at www.weather.gov/safety/cold.

Under the influence of the aforementioned surface high pressure system, skies will remain mostly clear on Tuesday. However, the persistence of cool, cyclonic flow around the broad longwave troughing aloft will keep afternoon temperatures similar to the day prior. Expect another day of highs in the 20s across northern counties and highs in the 30s further to the south. Low level flow will gradually back towards the south as the day progresses, favoring relatively "warmer" temperatures on Tuesday night. Expect ridge- valley temperature splits under mostly clear skies, with cooler valleys in the teens and warmer ridgetops closer to 20 degrees.

The pattern looks to become more active by midweek, and we are closely monitoring the potential for some wintery precipitation on Wednesday night. Southwesterly return flow will yield increasing temperatures and increasing cloud cover throughout the day on Wednesday before a passing low pressure system drags a cold front across the forecast area on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures ahead of that boundary will be in the 40s, which supports precipitation beginning as rain. However, thermodynamic cooling processes and a post-frontal cold air advection regime should allow precipitation to mix with and then change over to snow. The lack of deep moisture and the quick- moving nature of the parent system will limit accumulation potential, but a slushy coating on elevated surfaces and in high- terrain locations cannot be ruled out.

Another post-frontal high is expected to build into the region on Thursday, then propagate off the the east on Friday morning. Beyond then, model solutions begin to diverge. The amount of moisture return and the degree of temperature moderation on the backside of this high is uncertain, as is the evolution of the the governing mid/upper level synoptics late in the period. All of these details will play a large role in determining what precipitation types and accumulations (if any) may impact the area with a potential late- period storm system. The lack of model consensus currently precludes the mention of specific forecast details, including timing, although precip chances generally increase headed into the weekend. We will be closely monitoring ensemble trends and probabilistic data for Friday and beyond over the coming days, so stay tuned.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 640 AM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, though a passing cold front late tonight may bring a deck of mid level clouds to the area for a time. Winds will generally be westerly around 5 kts or less until ~ 18Z when they become more southwesterly through 06Z increasing to near 10 kts - turning northwesterly late.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.