textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will last into Friday, with some places potentially topping 70 degrees on Thursday.

- Multiple rounds of rain showers are likely on Thursday and Thursday night, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.

- Much colder air arrives this weekend and lingers into early next week.

- Snow showers are possible on Sunday into Monday, but only minor accumulations are forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 432 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Any lingering rain showers associated with the cold front responsible for the active weather discussed above in the short term section look to depart the area by Friday afternoon. Models depict the parent mid/upper level troughing disturbance moving into Ontario as the day progresses, which should facilitate FROPA and usher in a clearing trend from NW to SE. Low level winds adopt more of a westerly component behind the front, and the flow aloft is expected to return to a quasi-zonal state. This will limit the efficacy of the immediate post-frontal cold air advection. Assuming the clearing trend comes to fruition and low level clouds don't stubbornly hang around, temperatures on Friday afternoon are still expected to warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Relative to Thursday's near-record warmth, this will still feel like a cool down, but a more potent cold air advection regime sets up this weekend.

Friday morning's cold front is forecast to stall out to the south of the forecast area in the Tennessee Valley as it gets abandoned by its upper level support. Another low pressure system is forecast to develop within the related baroclinic zone on Friday night as a southern stream perturbation ejects out of the Ozarks aloft. Most of the forecast area is expected to remain dry for the start of the weekend, but overrunning moisture leads to an increase in mid/high level cloud cover and slight chance PoPs down by the Tennessee and Virginia borders through Saturday afternoon. Anything that falls would be rather light and in liquid form, as temperatures are forecast to remain well above freezing. Expect AM lows in the upper 30s/lower 40s on Saturday morning and PM highs in the 50s area-wide.

The cold air advection regime intensifies heading into early next week, with two shortwave troughs expected to propagate towards the forecast area back to back on Sunday. At the surface, the area will be positioned on the backside of the now-departing low on the other side of the Appalachians. Together, this leads to strengthening NW flow throughout much of the lower half of the atmospheric column. While there remains some model uncertainty regarding the precipitation forecast in this time frame, a changeover to snow is possible as surface temperatures drop below freezing on Saturday night. Favorable lobes of cyclonic vorticity rotating around the backside of the now-deeper troughing aloft may combine with upslope NW flow to produce additional snow showers later on Sunday and into Monday. Despite marginal ground temps leading into the event, minor accumulations cannot be completely ruled out in locations that experience higher snowfall rates.

Perhaps the bigger story will be the return of the colder air at the culmination of all this activity. Highs drop into the upper 30s/near 40 on Sunday and then struggle to rise much warmer than the mid 30s on Monday amidst persistent NW flow and CAA. Drier continental high pressure builds into the region on Monday night, and the resultant clearing allows Monday night's lows to radiationally cool to below-normal values in the teens (valleys) and lower 20s (ridgetops). Some degree of thermal moderation is expected by midweek as broader ridging builds in over much of the contiguous US. These synoptics will steadily return temperatures to near-normal values by the end of the period, with highs reaching the 40s on Tuesday and then the 50s on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 752 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026

Mostly MVFR conditions (due to ceilings) prevailed at the start of the period. An exception was the far north where some places north of I-64 were VFR. There was also some spotty drizzle or very light rain present.

Although the VFR conditions may make some limited progress to the south this evening, an eventual general deterioration to IFR and low end MVFR is expected area wide overnight. An increase in showers is also expected, especially for south central and southeast KY tonight.

Showers should decrease on Thursday morning and conditions are forecast to improve. VFR conditions are expected to return in the afternoon. However, there is a small potential for thunderstorms (along with sub-VFR conditions) to occur in the afternoon into the evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.