textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cold front will cross the area on Friday and usher a colder and drier airmass into the region for the weekend. - A widespread frost is likely this weekend, and a freeze is also possible. The coldest temperatures will be in the deeper valleys.

UPDATE

Issued at 1204 PM EST THU NOV 5 2026

A late morning update was done to blend observed conditions into the forecast, but not resulting in substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM EST THU NOV 5 2026

As the cold front continues to gradually shift to the east, more breaks in the low clouds have occurred over the past hour. Temperatures have cooled a little slower in the west compared to the forecast. Adjustments to hourly grids were made mainly to align with observation trends for temperatures and dewpoints over the next few hours.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 355 AM EST THU NOV 5 2026

The main story for the first part of the extended period will be the cold weather that settles in behind the Friday cold front. A trough over the Great Lakes region will barrel down towards the Upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states through the early part of the weekend. As the 500 mb trough moves east of the area, cold air will begin to work in for Saturday and following lows in the 30s to around 40, daytime highs are not expected to get out of the 50s. Cloud cover will gradually diminish as the upper level system moves off to the east, which will lead to low temperatures trending colder for Sunday. Strong ridge valley splits are expected for both Saturday and Sunday night as nighttime lows are expected to be in the 30s for ridge tops and the 20s for the more sheltered valley locations. A widespread frost and/or freeze appears likely for both nights.

High pressure will build across the Commonwealth through the early part of next week, leading to dry weather and near normal temperatures. Model solutions indicate a more active pattern developing around midweek. LREF and ECMWF indicate the potential for troughing developing across the eastern CONUS, while the GFS is more aggressive and brings a strong upper-level low into the Central Appalachians vicinity on Thursday. Given the model spread, there is still uncertainty with the location and evolution of these features. These will continue to be monitored for potential precipitation chances as we head into late next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1204 PM EST THU NOV 5 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with only a couple of exceptions. Valley fog with IFR or worse conditions is expected overnight and early Friday, especially in the larger/deeper valleys of southeast KY. It is not forecast to affect TAF sites. Also, a cold front will be entering the JKL forecast area from the northwest toward the end of the period and is forecast to bring high end MVFR or low end VFR ceilings.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.