textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Smoke Advisory is in effect until noon today near ongoing controlled burns.

- Warm, dry, and windy weather will lead to elevated fire danger today.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM today for the western half of the area. Expect non-thunderstorm wind gusts over 40 mph.

- A line of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms will sweep through late tonight into early Monday morning, bringing a risk for damaging winds and brief tornadoes.

- Temperatures will plummet Monday morning, quickly changing rain to snow showers. Heavy bursts of snow and strong winds could cause hazardous travel conditions for the Monday evening commute.

- Winter temperatures briefly return on Tuesday, with highs only reaching the lower to middle 30s.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

Updated the grids with the latest observational data. Winds should begin to pick up through the morning as the inversion mixes out. The forecast remains on track.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 419 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

Low level cold air advection in moist, brisk upslope flow will be ongoing at the start of the period. With the mixed convective layer extending through the DGZ, snow showers to varying extent will be ongoing, with the greatest concentration in the favored terrain of southeast KY. Based on forecast soundings, the NBM POP looked underdone and the POP was raised for the official forecast on Monday night. There is still some concern that it may not be high enough. With time, the frontal inversion will be lowering and the moisture will be mixing away, and by Tuesday morning nothing more than flurries should remain over the eastern portion of the forecast area. The last of the flurries then end on Tuesday and skies clear as surface high pressure builds in from the west.

With clear skies and light winds with high pressure overhead to start Tuesday night, temperatures should readily fall during the evening. A shortwave trough will approach in northwest flow aloft overnight, while warm air advection returns as the surface high departs to the east. The shortwave and isentropic lift will result in increasing clouds which should halt the fall for temperatures later in the night. How quickly the clouds thicken will affect how cold it gets, which leads to some uncertainty for low temperatures.

The column will be moistening largely from the top down Tuesday night into Wednesday. Eventually, drying aloft will begin on Wednesday. What is uncertain is whether or not virga can moisten the lower levels enough to allow for precip to reach the ground on Wednesday before the drying aloft occurs. At this point, low POPs for precip (rain and/or snow) are being carried only in our northern counties on Wednesday.

Overall, a warming trend is forecast Wednesday through Friday, with mild temperatures then persisting during the weekend. Model discrepancies grow during the period, particularly concerning timing/placement of surface systems. However, generalized west northwest flow aloft is expected, without conditions favorable for significant moisture return, and the POP is placed at 20% or less each period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through most TAF period. There may be smoke from a previous prescribed/wildland fire in the Daniel Boone National Forest. Periodic visibility obstructions due to smoke are possible at or in the vicinity of the LOZ and SME airfields through 14Z. In addition to the outside smoke chance, LLWS is in each TAF through 13-14Z this morning, with southerly winds up to 35 knots expected at all terminals. A low-level jet develops ahead of an approaching strong cold front, leading to the LLWS threat. After 14Z Sunday morning conditions will be gusty at all terminals due to this low- level jet. -SHRA start to work into the area around and after 06Z with a strong cold front. -RA will take over at most TAF sites before the end of the TAF period. Lower ceilings and some vis reductions intro MVFR are expected. Winds will gust 20-25 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050-051- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.

Dense Smoke Advisory until noon EDT today for KYZ079-080-083>085- 116-117.