textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot and muggy weather continues through Monday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening, mainly south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A stalled front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday, with isolated flash flooding possible from repeated heavy downpours.

- Seasonably cooler and drier air arrives Thursday and persists through the weekend, with daytime highs in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 50s, except in the upper 40s for some cooler valleys.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 443 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

The extended period opens Monday evening with fairly zonal flow aloft. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure will be situated south of James Bay. South of this high, a cold front will be draped from the Mid-Atlantic across the Commonwealth, trapped between the high pressure to the north and parallel upper- level steering winds. The result: showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday evening.

Farther west, an upper-level shortwave and broad troughing west of the Great Lakes will slowly translate eastward toward the Upper Midwest and Mississippi Valley. Quasi-zonal flow ahead of the shortwave, coupled with multiple perturbations riding along the stalled front, will allow for numerous to widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday. WPC has placed portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) ERO Tuesday and Wednesday due to some potential for excessive rainfall. Areas that experience repeated rounds of storms could see isolated instances of flash flooding.

On Thursday, amplification and passage of the upper-level trough should bring an end to the prolonged wet pattern. As the trough axis moves east of the area, drying of column will rapidly lower PWATs and bring drier conditions through the rest of the week and into the weekend. However, given timing discrepancies in model and ensemble guidance, lingering showers cannot be ruled out across the Big Sandy as well as eastern portions of the Kentucky River and Upper Cumberland River basins on Thursday. Otherwise, seasonably cool weather takes hold: daytime highs in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 50s return from Wednesday night onward, with some cooler valleys potentially dipping into the upper 40s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

VFR conditions are occurring with passing high clouds as of 17z. However, a few isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible through the remainder of this afternoon, with probabilities too low to mention in any TAFs at this time. General southwesterly winds of 3 to 7 kts will trend back to light and variable this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Generally VFR conditions with passing high clouds continue through tonight outside of fog in the deeper valleys. This fog is not expected to impact the terminals.

VFR conditions continue into the daytime hours Monday, with continued high clouds and developing cumulus at the tail end of the TAF period. Southwesterly winds will again increase as daytime heating increases, with sustained winds of 3 to 7 kts developing after 15z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.