textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will last into Friday, with some places potentially topping 70 degrees, especially Thursday.

- The next likelihood of rain is Thursday and Thursday night, with a slight chance of thunderstorms in most of the area. A few storms could be strong to severe.

- After a cold front passes early on Friday, colder air will arrive and last into next week. Snow showers are a possibility before the weekend is finished.

UPDATE

Issued at 1043 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026

The forecast is on track so changes were minor. Updated PoPs utilizing the 12z CAMS along with the NBM, with the forecast reasoning unchanged from earlier. Also freshened up the hourly temperature forecast through early this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 750 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026

Gusty winds, cloudy skies and unusually warm temperatures are noted across eastern Kentucky at update time. Thermometers are generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s except for the most sheltered northeastern hollows which are in the 40s to mid 50s. Southerly winds have also been gusting to between 20 and 35 mph in most places outside of the aforementioned coldest hollows. The current forecast is largely in good shape other than some minor adjustments to bring hourly temperature and sky cover forecasts more inline with the latest observations. The chances for a little spotty drizzle or passing light rain shower will gradually increase through the remainder of the morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 423 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026

A surface low is modeled to be over the Ozarks with a warm front expected to move north through Kentucky during the afternoon or early evening Thursday. Showers will increase in coverage through the evening as a cold front moves through overnight. Some thunderstorms may be possible with the frontal passage, as a few hundred Jules of CAPE may be available. While plenty of shear will exist during the day (50-70 kts), by the time the front moves through that drops to 35-45 kts; still more than enough to get things going. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Marginal (Level 1/5) Severe Weather Outlook for portions of the forecast area northwest of a line stretching from Monticello to London, Jackson, and Paintsville. Temperatures cool into the lower 50s to upper 50s, from west to east.

Friday, as the surface low lifts towards the Great Lakes, the trailing cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky early in the morning. This will effectively cut precip off from NW to SE as the front progresses east of the area. Skies will clear through the day, with temperatures warming into the upper 50s to low 60s in the west, to mid to upper 60s across the eastern most locations. As a larger trough begins to dig south from the Northern Plains, winds veer overnight from southwesterly to northwesterly. This shift in winds will allow for colder air to advect into the area, and temperatures to drop into the mid 30s to low 40s.

By Saturday, the frontal boundary that passed east of the area, is modeled to stall out anywhere from Virginia down through the Carolinas and back west through the Southeast US. Scattered showers may be possible across the Southeast, as some vorticity lobes work through Tennessee and Southern Kentucky early Saturday morning. Saturday evening, the first in a series of quick moving upper level lows will come through the Upper Mississippi Valley, southeast into the Ohio River Valley. This will allow for colder air to work south. Precipitation will start out as rain, with temperatures Saturday reaching the low to upper 50s. However, northerly winds through the day and evening will usher in colder air, dropping temperatures into the lower 30s for most. Rain will likely change over to a rain-snow mix before snow showers continue through Sunday. Temperatures remain in the upper 30s to low 40s through Sunday. POP chances were to high from 18Z Saturday through 00Z Monday given latest model and ensemble trends. In collaboration with surrounding offices, POP chances were adjusted down, but maintained slight chance to chance probabilities. Sunday afternoon, the second quick hitting upper level low follows the same track, which is modeled to produce light snow showers across far eastern Kentucky through Sunday night, tapering off Monday morning. This secondary upper level low also reinforces colder air across the area. Temperatures drop into the mid 20s Sunday night.

Monday, the area resides under an upper-level trough. Temperatures remain in the 30s through the day, but the trough axis begins to progress east of the area. CAA along with clearing skies at night will allow for temperatures to plummet into the teens for much of the area. Tuesday, with the influence of the upper level trough further removed, heights begin to rise again, as weak ridging builds into Eastern Kentucky. Tuesday temperatures warm into the low to mid 40s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions prevailed at the start of the forecast period with lowering cigs and the arrival of -SHRA from the west and northwest in association with a cold front. Ceilings are expected to further worsen into the IFR category (or possibly lower) for most locations this evening and remain persistently low through tonight. Scattered showers might redevelop from south to north late in the night, but are most likely to be focused south of the Mountain Parkway. To the north, including KIOB, KSYM, and possibly KSJS and KJKL, fog or low stratus may be the primary culprit for IFR or worse flight conditions. Conditions are likely to begin improving after 15z Thursday as developing instability allows for low clouds to begin to lift and scatter through the end of the TAF period.

Southwest winds at 5 to 15 kts will continue through the afternoon, strongest at KIOB and KSYM, though with gusts likely diminishing through the afternoon as the low-level jet weakens. Light and generally southerly winds are expected thereafter.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.