textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot and muggy weather continues through Monday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon and evening, mainly south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A stalled front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday, with isolated flash flooding possible from repeated heavy downpours.

- Seasonably cooler and drier air arrives Thursday and persists through the weekend, with daytime highs in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 50s, except in the upper 40s for some cooler valleys.

UPDATE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

A passing shortwave to the north is initiating isolated shower and thunderstorm redevelopment this evening. Have adjusted PoPs slightly in accordance with these trends as indicated in the 00z CAMS that are coming in.

Hourly temperatures have been updated to match with the latest observations and expected diurnal trends through the overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

PoPs and Sky grids have been updated based on the latest observed and satellite trends.

Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to continue to diminish heading into the remainder of the evening as daytime heating is lost and the lower atmosphere stabilizes.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 250 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

Model suites are in reasonable agreement for much of the long-term period. The period will start with more of a quasi-zonal upper level pattern across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be in place and quasi-stationary across Kentucky. This feature, along with eventual help from an upper level shortwave will keep the weather active through Thursday. The best chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a marginal risk (1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday. However, it would likely take multiple rounds of heavy rainfall to produce any flash flooding issues. This stormier pattern will help keep afternoon highs much cooler than of late, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 for Tuesday, and cooler for Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Then by the end of the week, we will see an upper-level closed low setup along the eastern seaboard. This will result in more of a blocking pattern across the CONUS. The good news for the Ohio Valley is surface high pressure to the north will will usher in much cooler and drier weather for the end of the week into the weekend, as we will see northerly flow at the surface. Afternoon highs will be much more like fall, topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through a majority of the TAF period. Fog is developing early this morning, primarily in the deeper river valleys, and will diminish by ~14z as daytime heating commences. Fog is not expected to impact the TAF sites at this time. An approaching disturbance and the arrival of a cold front from the north warrants the mention of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the last 12 hours of the period. Southwesterly winds will also again increase with daytime heating, with sustained winds of 3 to 7 kts developing after 15z veering northerly later the day and evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any showers and/or thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.