textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler than normal temperatures will continue for highs today, which will average about 5 degrees below normal.

- Storm chances return for the latter portion of the work week (Wed night-Fri). Some storms could approach severe limits, especially on Thursday.

- The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts. Isolated flash flooding is also possible should locations see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 1028 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026

Late evening observations have been blended into the forecast, without any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026

Fair wx cu are starting to dry up with loss of heating and that trend is expected to continue. Have reduced sky cover as we head into the night. Have also adjusted for a faster temperature drop in eastern valleys this evening.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 555 PM EDT MON JUN 15 2026

An amplified long wave pattern will be in place initially across the CONUS, as a seasonably deep upper level low gyres around just southwest of Hudson Bay. This allows for faster cyclonic flow fanned south, spread from the northern Plains/Rockies to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. This amplified flow will transition to more zonal-like flow by this weekend and into early next week, as ridging takes hold more so across the southern CONUS, while broader cyclonic flow stays more confined across the northern tier of the CONUS. Uncertainty grows with time concerning the smaller scale features, especially after Saturday. Overall, this will result in a period of unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky from Wednesday night through Friday, and then again from Sunday into Monday. Somewhat above normal temperatures will cool off to below normal readings, before rebounding back closer to normal temperatures by late this weekend into early next week.

Wednesday looks to be dry and warm, with temperatures climbing to mainly the mid 80s. Wednesday night, an anomalously strong 850 mb jet for this time of year (3-4 standard deviations at 50-60 kts) will develop across the Ohio Valley. The best 850 mb moisture flux convergence will stay north of the Ohio River, with eastern Kentucky remaining on the fringe of the more robust convection. It will be unusually breezy overnight for the middle of June, with model guidance ranging from 4-6 mb of surface pressure gradient across eastern Kentucky. Surface winds will range from 10 to 15 mph, with some gusts up to 25 mph at times, especially near the Bluegrass and across our higher terrain in far southeastern Kentucky. Between an influx of clouds from the northwest from upstream convection and the breezier surface winds, temperatures at most locations will remain in the 70s. The only exception to this will be some of our eastern and southeastern most sheltered valleys, where a few may temporarily dip to below 70 degrees by mid to late evening.

The cold front makes a better push towards the area on Thursday, with widespread convection developing across the area. Overall, model guidance probabilities regarding coupled ample instability and shear have trended lower compared to previous runs. Either way, given the unidirectional flow and higher freezing levels, strong to damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with any stronger cells. QPF has also trended down compared to earlier model runs; however, the front will be aligned more parallel with the upper level flow Thursday into Thursday night, allowing for the potential of training cells. PWATs, while overall lower compared to yesterday, are still forecast to be well above normal for this time of the year (75th-95th percentile), with mean LREF values at 1.6-1.7 inches. As such, isolated flash flooding is still possible. At the same time, 1 hour Flash Flood Guidance values have rebounded to 1.5-2.0 inches (with continued improvement leading up to this) across the area and local streamflows remain below normal.

The more widespread convection will diminish from northwest to southeast into Friday, as the cold front exits southeast of the area. Cooler high pressure will build in for the first half of the weekend, bringing mainly dry weather. Sunday into Monday, the boundary will return to the northeast as a warm front, with rain chances returning across the area, although confidence is low on specifics at this point. Highs will average in the 80s on Thursday, before retreating to the 70s on Friday. Temperatures will then moderate build back closer to normal by the end of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026

High pressure will shift east of the area during the period while a cold front will approach the OH Valley. At issuance time there were a few areas of clouds between 4 and 6kft agl in place across the area extending from OH into sections of northern, central, and northeastern KY into WV while additional areas of clouds in these ranges were near the KY borders with TN and VA. Outside of these clouds valley fog has already begun to form per satellite imagery and is likely leading to MVFR and IFR or perhaps lower reductions in some non TAF locations. This fog should affect areas along the larger creeks, rivers, and lakes through around 13Z before dissipating. TAF sites are not expected to be affected. Some diurnally driven high based cumulus in the 4 to 7kft agl range is anticipated during peak heating on Tuesday, but outside of the initial valley fog VFR will prevail in all areas. A few showers or a stray storm associated with the approaching front could affect KIOB or KSYM between 23Z and 06Z. Brief reductions to MVFR would be possible, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF at this point.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.