textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The shower and storm chances shift to the southeast today but are expected to build back in on Tuesday with heavy rainfall a distinct threat. - Somewhat drier and warmer weather returns Wednesday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1042 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

Have made a couple of updates so far this morning, mainly to the pops and weather. When driving in just before 8am, drizzle was observed, which then became light rain showers just before reaching the office. Since that point, the reflectivity has become more pronounced on the radar, indicating that this isn't just drizzle but rather light rain showers that have set up across across portions of eastern KY. Added in higher pops earlier and changed drizzle to rain showers to account for the increased precipitation. Originally expected it to diminish through the morning, especially as mixing increased, but this has not been the case. Now the originally forecasted showers are starting to pop up along the TN and VA border, but an area of light showers still remains for much of the southeast half of the CWA. As such, went ahead and increased pops again for the next couple of hours, until afternoon convection starts to take hold. Morning rain showers were added to the SAF with the first update, so shouldn't need to send out a new one. However, will continue to assess in case wording needs to be extended into the afternoon based on trends. The near term temperature, dew point, and wind forecasts have also been freshened up based on the latest observations, though they seemed to be well on track with the ongoing forecast. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also extend the patchy drizzle from the low stratus through mid-morning. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 445 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

The first part of the extended will be a continuation of damp weather with a threat for thunderstorms and excessive rainfall lingering through Thursday. The diurnal cycle should dominate the timing of the convection each day. Later, broad troughing looks to be on track to spread south from Canada into the Ohio Valley closing out the work week and heading into the weekend - perhaps bringing more shower and thunderstorm chances - continuing the damp pattern that started this month.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The models remain in good agreement with the long wave pattern through the end of next week. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the western Atlantic, strengthening through the latter half of the work week. Further west, a persistent heat dome centered near the Four Corners region will also intensify during the period. Meanwhile, a deeper upper level low spiraling over the vicinity of Hudson Bay will spread cyclonic flow over the north central U.S. through next week. By the start of next weekend, both ridges will have dampened somewhat, with more model uncertainty regarding how much residual troughing can be maintained across the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Deep South. In general, this will result in a continuation of diurnally-driven convection each day through next week across eastern Kentucky, with elevated humidity levels and near normal temperatures expected for early August.

The models have trended more towards sustaining a closed low over the Deep South on Tuesday, with higher PoPs favored across our terrain, and lesser chances north, further away from the forcing. The upper low will drift closer to us on Wednesday, bringing higher rain chances to eastern Kentucky. LREF mean PWATs continue to range in the 50-75th percentile range of climatology, but storm motions look a bit slower this go around at around 10 kts, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The upper level low will dampen across the region on Thursday, with some degree of troughing remaining in place through the weekend, dependent on the strength of upstream cyclonic flow and any potential short wave energy migration. There still seems to be pretty good confidence in keeping any surface fronts north of the Ohio River, allowing for only weak forcing across our area. As such, expect mainly afternoon/early evening PoPs in place each day through Sunday, but convection should be more scattered in nature. Highs each day will average in the lower to middle 80s. Lows will moderate slightly from the mid to upper 60s to near 70 by next weekend, with elevated humidity levels in place.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

An area of low pressure has pushed east of Kentucky but it is still able to maintain some isolated shower and drizzle activity this morning. Ceilings and any visibility restrictions are expected to lift between 14 and 16Z, returning widespread VFR conditions to the area through the bulk of the period - though perhaps some fog or low stratus set up again for early Tuesday morning. Any convective development this afternoon will stay southeast of all the TAF terminals. Winds will be northerly at 5 knots or less through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.