textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will arrive after midnight tonight, and continue at times through Thursday night. - Heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding east of I-75.

- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as the front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 959 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

Adjusted the forecast to increase PoPs over the next several hours to account for current radar trends. Also incorporated the latest observational data from around the area. A cold front coming out of the northwest will slowly progress southeast through the day and into the evening. Off and on rain and thunderstorms are expected with heavy rainfall possible in the most persistent rain bands. This could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 520 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

General model agreement remains regarding the long wave pattern through the middle of next week. Amplified and progressive flow will modulate across the northern half of the CONUS, while ridging gradually consolidates and expands west over the southeastern portion of the U.S. Eastern Kentucky will reside between a departing upper trough off of New England and a weak upper trough over the Mid- South region. At the surface, a weak cold front will be positioned near the Tennessee border back towards the lower Mississippi Valley. Eastern Kentucky will find itself in an unsettled pattern continuing into early this weekend, as troughing is maintained aloft, and the surface boundary lingers in the vicinity of the region. Model guidance has favored a slower transition to increasing 500 mb heights compared to yesterday. This will result in higher PoPs across the area through Saturday, with some locally heavy rainers still possible.

Sunday through Tuesday, more decisive ridging will build in aloft, which will limit the areal coverage of any convection. Unfortunately, this will also allow for more above normal heat and humidity, with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s, and even some lower 90s at times. Dew points will also likely exceed 70 degrees for the majority of the period. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge may broaden and pivot enough to allow for enough passing shortwave energy to drive the next surface cold front south of the Ohio River. This will bring another uptick in PoPs by Wednesday, although confidence in timing is pretty low this far out.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026

Rain continues to fall across the forecast area as a weak, slow-moving cold front progresses out of the Ohio Valley into eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening. Ceilings range from IFR at IOB and SJS, MVFR at SYM, and VFR elsewhere. A lull in activity will occur between 18-20Z with a resurgence in showers and perhaps thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening. This may result in a breif improvement in ceilings and flight categories until 20Z. Low clouds or fog is expected to develop after 05Z with more widespread lower ceilings and IFR conditions expected before slowly mixing out around 14Z Friday morning. Light and variable winds will remain through the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.