textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the weekend and into the middle of the new work week. The greatest coverage is expected Tuesday through Friday. - Isolated heavy to excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 415 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026

With the return of quasi-zonal flow aloft, a weak surface pressure gradient, and the increased potential for antecedently wet grounds, Sunday night is shaping up to be a candidate for nocturnal radiation fog. Confidence in fog formation is greatest in the typically- impacted river valleys, but patchier fog may develop elsewhere in such a setup. Expect fog to begin to mix out during the Monday morning commute, setting up a generally pleasant, but hot, late summer day in eastern Kentucky. Most of the area will experience a reprieve from the recent excessive rainfall risks on Monday, with only isolated showers and storms expected along the terrain in SE KY. Continued midlevel height rises and strengthening southwesterly low level flow will yield highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Dewpoints in the 70s combine with these temperatures to yield widespread heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. A few readings near 100 degrees cannot be ruled out in urbanized areas and in the deepest valley locales.

The attention then turns towards a series of ridge-riding shortwave impulses approaching the forecast area between Tuesday and Saturday. The presence of these disturbances in the coarse long term guidance causes scattered to numerous coverage-level PoPs to reenter the forecast by midweek, but it remains difficult to pinpoint the exact temporal oscillations within those PoPs. Pattern recognition continues to suggest that next week's convection could take the form of MCSes moving through the Ohio River Valley. The available medium- range machine learning models and analog-based convective guidance still suggest that a risk for damaging wind gusts could materialize in the late Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. This will likely be accompanied by a threat for heavy rainfall, and WPC has already delineated a Slight (Level 2/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Tuesday. Depending on the evolution of each successive round of convection, a risk for flash flooding could materialize across the Commonwealth. Confidence in forecast details like rainfall totals and favored corridors for training storms/backbuilding is low at the current temporal range, so interests are encouraged to monitor for updates in the coming days. On the plus side, increased sky cover should help quell the heat in the latter stages of the week. Expect temperatures to modulate back down towards seasonably appropriate (if not slightly below) highs, in the low to mid 80s, and lows in the 60s by the end of the period on Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026

At the 18Z TAF issuance, it was mostly quiet across eastern Kentucky with a scattered to broken cu field in most locations and a few small isolated showers. Isolated to scattered deep convection is expected to redevelop in locations south of JKL and SJS this afternoon bringing brief MVFR or worse conditions and warranting PROB30 groups at LOZ and SME. That activity should diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Additional convection is possible tonight over northern Kentucky as a weak cold front sags to near the Ohio River but confidence in coverage of the convection was too low to mention in the northern TAF sites on this forecast cycle. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail into the overnight hours before valley fog and/or low stratus develop late in the night, heralding the return of more widespread MVFR to IFR conditions into Sunday morning. Winds will generally be southwesterly at less than 10 kts through the period; however, locally strong and gusty winds cannot be ruled out near thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.