textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- After a cooler and more comfortable day, today, well above normal temperatures return for Tuesday through Saturday.

- Near-record heat is possible Thursday with high temperatures within a few degrees of 90F.

UPDATE

Issued at 1053 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026

Satellite imagery shows cloud cover lingering across southeastern portions of the area on the back end of the cold front. This should thin out into a cumulus field this afternoon. To account for this, sky cover forecasts were modified to keep cloud cover over these areas until early afternoon. Dew point forecasts were also adjusted lower to reflect latest observations and low-level cold/dry air advection.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 445 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026

The extended portion of the forecast remains on track with the idea of a large 5h ridge holding over the region through much of the week before some weakening and drifting of its center is progged towards next weekend. This could perhaps include the Gulf becoming more active late in the period - not necessarily a recipe for helping to clear the local ridge. The net result will continue to mean temperatures staying unseasonable warm and seriously limiting the potential for widespread rain.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The extended period opens with an upper-level ridge settling into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and surrounding areas of the Southeast US. Elsewhere, a trough resides north of the Northern Plains. Models depict a 598-600 dam high in the vicinity of Tennessee Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday, the aforementioned trough attempts to dig southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. However, model-to-model runs of the LREF Grand Ensemble show a stronger ridge, with influence extending further north into the Ohio Valley compared to previous runs. The upper-level ridge does eventually weaken and retrograde back to the southwest toward Texas heading into the weekend. This will leave the area under zonal flow with weak troughing.

At the surface, conditions remain fair both Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A weak warm front will pass through the forecast area from the southwest on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, a surface cold front extending southwest from Quebec through the Ohio Valley, approaches the forecast area from the northwest. The stronger ridge mentioned previously has trended the model mean temperatures warmer for Thursday and has lowered forecaster confidence on the front actually coming through. 850-mb temperatures around 19-20 C suggest surface temperatures could climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Thursday. At JKL, the record high temperature is currently 90, set back in 1991. This could be in play. One thing that may hinder those chances would be any added cloud cover or convection. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible though confidence is low. Model spread does increase Thursday onward surrounding the evolution of the nearby front. Therefore shower and storm chances remain in the forecast through Sunday. Forecast temperatures should cool some heading into the weekend, with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026

VFR conditions were observed across most of the CWA at the 18Z TAF issuance time with the exception of some MVFR cigs reported at KSJS. While only FEW to SCT clouds are expected at most terminals this afternoon, locations near the KY-VA border could see a period of MVFR ceilings. By late afternoon, VFR conditions will be the rule everywhere and stay that way for all TAF sites. Meanwhile, winds will remain north to northeasterly between 5 and 10 kts this afternoon and become variable overnight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.