textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A more active weather pattern is now upon us, with multiple chances for widespread showers and storms through Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and through tonight - as well as on Wednesday. These will bring some more highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once the frontal boundary finally clears the area late this week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored along with a chance for frost over the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The main change to the start of the long term forecast was to add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night with a small to moderate ridge to valley temperature difference anticipated. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast and details remain on track, including the frost potential for Saturday night.

The previous long term discussion follows:

As the long term period opens on Wednesday, a shortwave rotating along the base of the trough over the central CONUS will nudge a deepening surface low to the northeast into the Ohio River region. This will finally force the previously stalled cold front through our area on Wednesday afternoon, triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms. The environment preceding this cold front will heavily depend on the evolution of Tuesdays convection; however, current model consensus suggests that very moist low levels will maintain cloud cover ahead of the cold front on Wednesday. As a result, full destabilization appears unlikely at this time. However, eastern Kentucky will be located beneath an upper level jet streak, providing ample shear (EBWD of 35-45 kts) for convective organization in the event that instability is high enough for robust updraft development. Given this setup, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for far eastern Kentucky, where the frontal passage is most likely to coincide with peak diurnal instability. Machine learning guidance remains rather unenthused about this severe threat, and given questions regarding destabilization, this seems appropriate. Regardless, Wednesday looks to bring another round of measurable rain to much of the area; LREF guidance indicates at least a quarter-inch of rain is likely in our easternmost counties (70-80% chance), and this is without factoring in convection-allowing models. This additional round of rainfall should help to put a dent in our drought conditions before lingering showers exit the forecast area overnight.

Following Wednesdays frontal passage, dry conditions should prevail through Thursday. However, model guidance begins to diverge by Friday afternoon into Saturday. The GFS shows a wave rotating into our area, which would trigger widespread precipitation; in contrast, the ECMWF is less aggressive with this energy, keeping PoPs low for eastern Kentucky. To account for this spread, the NBM has attempted to provide a middle ground of low PoPs across the area on Friday into Saturday. However, actual rain chances depend on the evolution of the upper air pattern, which remains highly uncertain this far out. Regardless, more tranquil weather is expected to return Sunday and persist throughout the remainder of the period.

Beyond precipitation, Wednesdays frontal passage will also usher in unseasonably cool weather for the remainder of the forecast period. This change could prove problematic for any sensitive vegetation, as this pattern supports several opportunities for frost. The first period of concern will be on Thursday night, when the combination of clear skies, light winds, and temperatures falling into the 30s in sheltered hollows could lead to isolated frost formation. Another low confidence frost threat exists on Friday night; however, this remains highly dependent on the progression of the aforementioned wave. In a more aggressive solution, clouds cover and moisture would mitigate frost risk, while a less aggressive solution would favor clearer and drier weather that would once again enable frost formation in sheltered hollows. Regardless, the highest chance for frost formation will occur on Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure builds, clear skies and calm winds should allow temperatures to plummet into the 30s, with decoupled valleys seeing the coolest temperatures. Consequently, agricultural interests are advised to remain weather aware throughout the end of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

For the 06Z TAF issuance VFR was holding at most sites with JKL the exception on account of a preliminary thunderstorm moving through. Look for conditions to then deteriorate through the next few hours as a band of strong to severe thunderstorms move into and through the forecast area. Low-end VFR to MVFR conditions (and a brief time of IFR can be anticipated through the first part of the morning with the convection. The bulk of the precipitation activity will wane after 12Z. Shower and storm chances are then expected to increase again towards the evening and the end of the period represented by a PROB30 in most TAFs. For the next few hours there will be a potential for low level wind shear out of the southwest at up to 45 kts. Otherwise, winds will be gusty with the storms - generally from the south to southwest at 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts. Look for them to remain gusty once the pcpn ends while shifting to the west - perhaps diminishing a bit with sunset.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.