textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through Wednesday. Latest forecasts suggest near-record or record temperatures at both London and Jackson Wednesday.

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for all of eastern Kentucky as a strong cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- After a sharp cooldown Thursday, mild temperatures return for Friday into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 733 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

Showers, with a few thunderstorms west of Interstate 75, will continue to move east this morning with a probable gradual weakening trend as they outrun better instability. A weak disturbance and weak instability will likely initiate a few more showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

Looking ahead, winds and wind gusts were increased for Wednesday into Wednesday evening with this update as confidence continues to increase that there will be mixing down of strong winds aloft during the peak heating period, especially in our northeastern counties where a low-level jet will be developing ahead of the strong cold front approaching from the west. Forecast high temperatures also continue to trend upwards, with lower to mid 80s becoming more probable across northeastern Kentucky due to the better mixing.

UPDATE Issued at 520 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over south- central Kentucky and north-central Tennessee in the last few hours, and these are poised to move across the southern half of the forecast area over the next several hours. This is already reflected well in the 1-hour PoP grids. Sky grids were updated to reflect more clearing that exists than currently forecast out ahead of this activity.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 303 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper-level trough progged over the western Great Lakes, while the associated surface low tracks across the eastern Great Lakes into New England. An attending cold front will be oriented southwest across the Commonwealth toward the Gulf Coast. A cut-off low is forecast to track across the CONUS through the week, influencing the broader synoptic pattern. On the mesoscale, the strong cold front will cross the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms. While the severe weather threat should be waning by the start of the extended period, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the frontal passage across the CWA. As the surface low shifts into New England, the cold front will exit the area by early Thursday morning. CAA behind the front will lead to a brief transition to an isolated rain-snow mix. However, this will be short-lived; as temperatures rise along the diurnal curve, any frozen precipitation will quickly revert to rain before ending.

Thursday marks the arrival of surface high pressure and drier conditions. Despite the sunshine, post-frontal CAA will limit afternoon highs to the upper-40s and low-50s. While temperatures remain cool overnight, low-level flow will shift southwesterly, allowing warmer air to advect into the region. This will be manifested on Friday as highs climb into the upper-50s and mid-60s. This warming trend is attributed to the southwesterly flow ahead of a clipper system progged to dive into the northern CONUS and Great Lakes through Friday morning. Because this feature remains well to the north, the local area will stay under the influence of high pressure, maintaining dry weather and warming temperatures through the start of the weekend.

By Sunday, the pattern flips as a Pacific trough ejects off the Rockies and moves across the CONUS, reaching the doorstep of the CWA by Sunday afternoon. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist ahead of the system. Long-term forecast soundings indicate sufficient instability and shear may be in place to support strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon. While specific details remain unresolved, the potential is evident in current model guidance. The surface low will track through the Great Lakes, with FROPA occurring through the day Monday. Similar to the mid-week system, significant cold air is progged to wrap around the backside of the low, leading to a transition from rain to snow Monday afternoon and evening. Behind the departing system, cold high pressure settles in, bringing slightly below-average temperatures to end the period.

The period will be highlighted by two distinct shortwaves separated by a period of high pressure. While temperatures will generally trend above average, cold air advection behind each cold front will bring periodic cooler temperatures and a brief return to winter-like conditions.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

Scattered showers are moving west to east across the area this morning, with a few thunderstorms in the Lake Cumberland area, including the vicinity of KSME. MVFR ceilings will occur at times with this activity, with improvements through the afternoon as convection and precipitation becomes more isolated or diminishes. Conditions are likely to improve back to VFR and remain that way by late afternoon, if not sooner, but increasing clouds and precipitation, including more numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms, can be expected after 04z tonight through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will remain light and variable or out of the southwest at less than 10 kts today, but will begin to increase to around 10 kts from the south or south-southwest especially for western sites after 00z Wednesday. A few gusts approaching 20 kts may be possible by the end of the TAF period, especially at KSME and KIOB.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.