textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of cold fronts will pass through the area between tonight and Friday. Together, they will usher a drier but colder airmass into the region heading into the weekend. - Sunday and Monday mornings could see frosty conditions across portions of eastern Kentucky, along with some freeze potential. The coldest temperatures will be in the deeper valleys.

UPDATE

Issued at 956 PM EST WED NOV 4 2026

The bulk of the rain has almost moved out of the forecast area leaving just a few lingering showers through the rest of the night. As such, have removed any mention of thunder in the forecast. The cold front itself should pass through the area in the coming hours bringing a slightly cooler day tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 352 PM EST WED NOV 4 2026

The extended period of the forecast begins on Friday, as an upper level low will be sinking southward from the Upper Great Lakes region into the northern Ohio Valley throughout the day. The ECMWF shows some precipitation on the southern extent of this low, reaching northern Kentucky and possibly our far northern CWA. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps us more dry other than some very brief and light rain potential in the evening. This run of the NBM included increased cloud cover and some very slight pops across the northern CWA from 12 to 18Z, but nothing more. Will be interested to see how the models, and therefore the NBM, trend with the next few runs - as it could increase the pops throughout the day, or could end up being a dry day across our CWA. Either way, the impacts from any rain will be minimal and should only affect the northern CWA.

The upper level low will then continue to track east-southeast towards the New England coast through the weekend, placing Kentucky in the northerly flow portion of the system by Saturday. This, coupled with strong high pressure and northerly flow at the surface, will result in clearing skies and also a strong push of CAA. While the current grids don't reflect it just yet, expect a decently strong ridge/valley split in temperatures on both Saturday night and Sunday night, with locations, especially deeper valleys, dropping into the 20s. If this pans out, we will see our first hard freeze of the season, effectively ending growing season.

Surface high pressure and weak NW flow aloft will remain in place across the region through the rest of the period, Monday through Wednesday, bringing with it dry and sunny skies, along with light winds. Temperatures will warm ever so slightly after Sunday, but should generally remain in the 60s for highs and 30s for lows.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 651 PM EST WED NOV 4 2026

Conditions vary between MVFR and VFR criteria at the time of issuance, but MVFR conditions should spread to all terminals as a cold front passes through tonight. Once the front clears, southerly winds should shift towards more of a westerly orientation. The frontal passage should bring about an end to the ongoing rain this evening, but low stratus clouds are forecast to hang around overnight. Patchy fog also cannot be ruled out given the wet grounds, and this combination of fog and low stratus should keep MVFR to IFR conditions in place overnight (especially at southern and eastern terminals). Conditions will gradually improve to VFR as skies clear throughout the day on Thursday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.