textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above normal temperatures persist into the weekend. - The heat, humidity, and a nearby frontal boundary could foster isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area at various times over the next several days.

- Rain chances increase early next week as the persistent upper level ridging breaks down.

UPDATE

Issued at 638 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026

Freshened up the near-term grids with the latest observational and model data. No major changes were made to the forecast. Showers and storms continue across portions of the CWA, though strength and coverage should gradually diminish heading later into the evening. Fog may begin to develop shortly after 00Z and may be in more places than just the favored river valley locations. Areas that received rainfall earlier this afternoon may see localized dense pockets of fog overnight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 438 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026

The models are in decent agreement with an overall amplified pattern over the CONUS through the long term portion of the forecast. On Sunday, a ridge will be centered over the Ark-La-Tex region, with zonal flow spread from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through New England. Upstream, a dampening closed low will be moving through the northern Rockies, with a broad short wave trough aligned south through the Four Corners region. The models are in good agreement into early next week with the Ark-La-Tex ridge continuing to retreat southwest and weaken with time, while the upper level low/short wave trough translates east from the central/northern Plains to the Midwest region. The pattern then turns more blocky through the middle and latter portion of the work week, with a broader closed low potentially taking shape over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, while ridging reasserts itself across the southern Plains. The closed low will continue to broaden and expand towards the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the period. Confidence is lower on the details, as model guidance typically does not handle larger cutoff evolutions very well.

Sensible weather for eastern Kentucky will feature gradually relenting heat for the second half of the weekend and early next week, with high temperatures near and above 90 mainly reserved for locations near and southwest of I-75. Some convection will also threaten Sunday and especially on Monday, as another frontal boundary drops south across the Ohio Valley and likely stalls in the vicinity of our area. Some stronger storms and locally heavy rainfall will be possible, although higher PWATs will likely remain concentrated more so just north of the Ohio River. Unsettled weather will continue through the middle of the work week, as the upper level low holds sway aloft. Thankfully, these lower 500 mb heights will also result in a welcomed cooler air mass to take hold over the region. Highs will retreat back to the 70s each day from Wednesday through Friday, with rain chances diminishing Thursday into Friday, as the low gradually pulls to our east.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026

At 00Z, isolated showers and thunderstorms were moving across the area from northwest to southeast. These storms should decrease in intensity and coverage over the next hour before ceasing. Current conditions are generally VFR, though sub-VFR conditions are occurring in places where rainfall just occurred.

Fairly widespread low stratus and/or fog is expected across much of eastern Kentucky overnight, particularly in the wake of this afternoons convection. Reductions to MVFR/IFR, and perhaps lower, are possible between 06Z and 14Z, with improvements back to VFR conditions shortly thereafter. Some thunderstorms will be possible again Saturday afternoon out of the northwest. PROB30s were introduced at KIOB and KSYM at the tail end of the TAF period to account for these chances. Conditions could drop into low-end MVFR or IFR should a thunderstorm occur. Winds remain light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.