textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will last through Thursday, with some places potentially topping 70F then. Cooling then arrives by the weekend.

- The next likelihood of rain is Thursday-Thursday night, with a slight chance of thunderstorms in most of the area, as well. Some storms could be strong to severe.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 356 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026

The forecast period begins with the region positioned within the warm sector of an occluding surface cyclone migrating from the Upper Midwest toward the Great Lakes. Within this sector, low-level southwesterly flow will advect a warmer air mass into the area, resulting in mild overnight lows for Wednesday night. While isolated PoPs exist overnight, chances will increase toward sunrise. Initial guidance suggested higher overnight PoPs; however, forecast soundings indicate a significant layer of dry air between 850 mb and 200 mb. This dry layer is expected to cause substantial evaporation of falling hydrometeors, necessitating a reduction in PoP chances until the column fully saturates and precipitation can reach the surface.

While the primary system is progged to stall over the western Great Lakes, a secondary shortwave is forecast to develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over the Central Plains. As this cyclone tracks northeastward into the Midwest, its associated warm front will lift into the region by Thursday morning. Although earlier model runs suggested early convection, a lack of surface-based instability has warranted the removal of thunder from the Thursday morning forecast. The warm front is forecast to lift across the Commonwealth as the parent surface low moves into Illinois and Indiana. Showers remain likely throughout Thursday, with the potential for thunderstorms, some of which could become strong to severe. Recent model suites have increased common convective indices to more favorable thresholds, though these may remain unrealized if post-frontal clearing fails to occur, limiting instability ahead of the cold front. Regardless, it is difficult to ignore a warm front in a spring-like environment and this notion is reflected in the latest Day 3 convective outlook from the SPC. A Slight Risk has been introduced for areas closest to the low track, including portions of Illinois, Indiana, and northwestern Kentucky, clipping parts of the CWA (Montgomery, Bath and Fleming Counties). A Marginal Risk encompasses the Slight Risk area, extending northwest of a line from Martin County to Wayne County. Areas southeast of this line remain under a General Thunder risk.

Shower and storm chances persist through Thursday night and Friday morning as the cold front slowly traverses the Commonwealth. While shower coverage may diminish slightly during the day Friday, a secondary wave is expected to develop along the trailing boundary, bringing renewed precipitation chances late Friday through Saturday. The system is forecast to exit the region late Saturday night into Sunday. However, as cold air advection intensifies, lingering wrap- around moisture will likely transition from rain to a rain-snow mix, and eventually all snow by late Sunday night.

Overall, the forecast remains active as multiple synoptic features traverse the CONUS. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages through the work week due to persistent southwesterly flow. After temperatures peak in the low 70s on Thursday, a cooling trend will take hold for the remainder of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026

VFR was reported at issuance time and is expected to largely prevail through the period. The exception will be any fog that manages to develop northwest of KSYM and KIOB as well as anticipated valley fog, non TAF locations through 14Z. Lower level moisture is expected to increase during the second 6 hour period under return flow between departing sfc high pressure and low pressure a system organizing in the Plains. This could result in a few to scat clouds in the MVFR range or lower end of the VFR between about 14Z and 23Z though ceilings are not currently expected in those levels. Winds will be generally light and variable to begin the period, before becoming south to southwest at generally less than 10KT. Some at least brief gusts into the 15 to 20KT range are possible during peak heating for the more western and open terrain locations such as KIOB, KSYM, KSME, and KLOZ, though were not included in this issuance as these may not be sustained for much duration. Winds will tend to slacken with the loss of daytime heating around 23Z. However, winds aloft ahead of the system in the Plains trekking toward the upper MS Valley will begin to increase late. This could result in a marginal LLWS threat before the end of the period, though with the threat a bit greater after the period and lower end confidence left out the LLWS for the western TAFs at this juncture.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.