textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cold temperatures are forecast through this weekend before a warming trend emerges early next week.

- A weaker system will bring light precipitation in the form of rain and snow to portions of eastern Kentucky Friday into Friday night, mainly east of I-75.

UPDATE

Issued at 940 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026

Light precipitation, snow or mostly snow, lingers near the VA border. Recent AWOS sites near the KY/VA border report snow falling and cloud top temperatures support mainly or all snow in what remains. This activity should depart into VA over the next couple of hours. Colder air continues to filter into the region on northwest to northeast sfc winds. And at least temporary clearing has moved into sections of northern and northeastern KY including sections of Fleming County. Temperatures were in the teens where skies had clearing with mainly 20s to around 30 reported further south. Temperatures remain on track to reach the teens areawide, and pending the duration of clearing some single digits near and north of I-64.

Hourly grids were updated based on observation and radar trends and have been sent to NDFD and webfarms.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026

Radar returns, especially near or south of the KY 80 corridor from near London to Hyden and south have filled in as a shortwave nears. KYTC in Leslie county reported some flurries falling while there has been some mping reports of snow and the Williamsburg and Middlesboro AWOS stations have also reported snow or unknown precipitation at times. Cloud top temps were warmer than -10C in some areas and the presence of ice in the clouds in those areas is uncertain. With temperatures there having fallen into the upper 20s to around 30, opted to issue an SPS over the next couple of hours for patchy snow possibly mixed with freezing drizzle. Updates to hourly grids were also made based on the radar trends as well as observation trends.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 428 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026

The long wave patten will start out amplified over the CONUS, with deeper troughing seen in the East, while sharper ridging is aligned from the Continental Divide through northern Mexico. The pattern will dampen through the weekend and into the first half of next week. Troughing will shift off to the western Atlantic, while the ridge broadens as it moves across the central part of the country. A cutoff low will emerge near the Baja of California early next week. The model guidance differs on how quickly this feature transitions to an open short wave and eventually moves through nearly zonal flow established east of the Rockies by the middle of next week.

Clouds will already be on the increase across eastern Kentucky early Friday, with an approaching short wave trough diving southeast from the Great Lakes through the upper portion of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic region through Friday night. Surface low pressure will follow suit, with an accompanying warm/cold front to pass through eastern Kentucky. Probabilities for measurable precipitation continue to increase with this system, especially east of I-75; however, it does look a bit slower to move in. This will allow better temperature recovery in moderate low level warm air advection. Highs will top out in the upper 30s north of the Mountain Parkway, to the mid 40s within the valleys bordering Tennessee. Consequently, this would yield mainly a rain/snow mix initially, before cold air advection kicks in Friday night, with a changeover back to snow from northwest to southeast and from the highest elevations in far southeastern Kentucky gradually down to the valley floors. Most locations will see less than an inch of accumulation, as deeper moisture continues to look limited with this system.

A reinforcing shot of colder air will follow, with lows mainly in the teens both Friday and Saturday nights and highs knocked back into the 20s and 30s for Saturday. Highs on Sunday will moderate back to the 30s and 40s. Dry weather will also generally hold on through the weekend, although some of the guidance suggests another short wave trough may brush us from the northeast on Sunday. Time height forecasts show a little more disjointed moisture here, so will keep things more optimistic for now, and just allow for the increase in cloud cover.

Warmer air will be on the way into next week, as 500 mb heights build into the Ohio Valley, thanks to an approaching ridge upstream. Highs will return to the 50s, with even a few 60 degree readings across our south by Tuesday. Lows will moderate to the 20s and 30s. As usual, there will be a price for the warmer temperatures, with a return of unsettled weather by Tuesday night and continuing through the middle of next week. Details are murky at this point, so probabilities only peak in the chance (30%) range for now.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026

A combination of IFR and MVFR conditions were prevailing across the region at issuance. Visibilities have generally improved, with some IFR ceilings at times noted at KBYL where some light precipitation is falling. This light wintry precipitation should affect the far south over the next couple of hours, but generally should remain south of the TAF sites. MVFR or IFR should prevail through 12Z with breaks in the clouds and times of VFR possibly reaching as far south as KSYM and KIOB. Improvements back to VFR are anticipated during the last 12 hours of the period. Winds will average between northwest and northeast during the first 12 hours of the period at 10KT or less, before becoming light and variable to end the period as a ridge of sfc high pressure builds across the region.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.