textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier air arrives and settle in through the first half of the week.

- Frost is possible each night from tonight through Tuesday night. A few of the normally colder and sheltered valley locations may experience a freeze Monday night and/or Tuesday night.

- Temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal during the second half of the week, with rain free weather expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 755 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and trends. Hourly pops were in good alignment with obs and radar trends and no changes were made at this time.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

The long term period is expected to begin with an upper trough extending from eastern Canada across the Great Lakes and into the eastern Conus while shortwave riding is progged from the Northern Rockies into the Canadian Rockies with an upper low moving across BC. Further west and southwest, a shortwave trough is expected to be moving across the Four Corners to Baja region while a shortwave ridge is progged west of the west coast of the Conus with an other upper low further to the west in the Pacific. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to centered over the upstate NY to mid Atlantic states vicinity with a dry cold front having dropped south of KY and extending into eastern CO and then this baroclinic zone should extend north and northwest to MT and then a sfc low in BC. South of the boundary a ridge of high pressure is expected to extend from east of the outer Banks across the Carolinas to TX while another sfc ridge is expected to be centered from Manitoba to the Northern Plains/upper MS Valley.

From Monday night to Tuesday night, the upper trough axis should shift east of the Commonwealth and Southern Appalachians to and then off the eastern seaboard. A period of gradually rising 500 mb heights is expected across eastern KY. Further west the initial Four Corners to Baja shortwave should progress east across the Southern Plains to Arklatex region while the upper low initially in BC is progged to move to near the Saskatchewan/Montana/ND border should be preceded by shortwave ridging that moves across the Northern Plains to upper MS Valley and nears the western Great Lakes area. Further west, upper ridging is progged to build into the Southwest Conus as the eastern Pacific upper low gradually begins to meander east/southeast. Sfc high pressure will build into the Great Lakes to OH Valley and Appalachians Monday night to early Tuesday with the center of this high shifting into the Northeast/Mid Atlantic by late Tuesday night. Further west, low pressure should extend from Saskatchewan to the Dakotas at that point.

This second high will reinforce the colder drier airmass across the region and PW for Tuesday will drop into the 10th to 35th percentile from northeast to southwest per 00Z LREF. This will allow for lows in the upper 20s to low 30s in valleys and lower lying locations to the mid to upper 30s for valleys on Monday night and Tuesday night. This will be favorable for some frost formation and freezing temperatures are possible both nights in the normally colder locations. Widespread sub 25 min rh is also expected for Tuesday afternoon and some locations should drop off into the teens percent range on mainly north to northeasterly flow.

Wednesday to Thursday night, the period should generally feature 500 mb height rises across eastern KY while models vary in how quickly they move the upper low/trough east near the US/Canadian border and into the Great Lakes region which results in some variation with the associated frontal zone position to the north and west of eastern KY. Nevertheless the region is likely to remain well within the warm sector. Downslope low level southerly winds will be favored with axis of the sfc ridge extending from southeast of the Maritimes to the mid Atlantic states to southern Appalachians. This return flow and the region being in the warm sector will favor temperatures warming to about 5 degrees above normal for Wednesday and to around 10 degrees above normal for Thursday night. Dewpoints/low level moisture increase will be slowed by the downslope component and low humidties should continue for Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, especially in the more eastern/southeastern locations. Also, another moderate ridge/valley temperature split or two may occur Wednesday and Thursday nights as well. Some of the normally colder eastern valley locations could reach the 30s for Wednesday night and perhaps Thursday night.

Friday to Saturday, uncertainty is expected with the upper pattern/heights in the Lower OH Valley. Upper ridging is expected to be centered across central America and extend into sections of the Gulf and southeast Conus with models also in agreement that the upper low initially off the west coast of the Conus meanders to near or into CA and the Southwest Conus. Weaker disturbances could traverse the OH Valley though the frontal/baroclinic zone should remain to the north. A shower could affect the north Friday or Saturday afternoon if the boundary is nearer to the OH River, but rain free weather is forecast at this time. Temperatures moderate to around 15 degrees above normal during this timeframe. Several locations should experience sub 30 percent min RH again on Friday afternoon as dewpoints continue to only slowly creep up.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026

Widespread MVFR conditions with some IFR or locally lower in the southeast was reported at issuance time. Rain will continue to taper off from NW to SE through about 14Z, with MVFR conditions lingering for a couple of hours once rain ends. However, VFR conditions then return areawide by the 16Z to 17Z timeframe as high pressure builds in. Northwest to west winds at 5 to 12KT with gusts up to about 20KT are anticipated today, especially after around 16Z. However, the pressure gradient relaxes toward 00Z and after, resulting in slackening winds between 00Z and 06Z and light and variable winds during the last 6 to 9 hours in all areas.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.