textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be a brief warm-up Wednesday and Thursday before very cold weather returns and lasts into next week.

- There is a chance for light precipitation - primarily rain - on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- A winter storm system could bring significant snow accumulations this weekend.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026

At the open Thursday, a cutoff low off the California coastline, and a dominate area of high pressure over Western Ontario. Thursday should remain largely quite across Eastern Kentucky, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 40s across the area. Scattered shower chances creep into the areas along and south of the KY-80/Hal-Rogers corridor, in the early evening. As temperatures cool into the low to mid 20s overnight, these showers will changeover to snow showers. A few tenths of an inch of snow may fall, with little to no major impacts expected.

Friday, will see mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s, north to south across the area. A dry cold front will move through CWA during the day, bringing colder air to the region Friday night. Lows Friday night range from single digits along and north of the I-64 corridor, to the low to mid teens along the TN/VA boarders with Kentucky.

A Gulf low will stream moisture northward into the Tennessee Valley, while a secondary lob of Arctic air will spill south into the Midwest, and Ohio Valley. This will likely setup an area of snowfall across Kentucky through the weekend. Models vary on how progressive the cutoff low off the Baja/California coastline is, but nevertheless this system will eject across the TX/OK area and into the Tennessee Valley. The oddity with this system impacting Kentucky over the weekend is the lack of any low level jet. Most models continue to show this absence, however the 12Z Euro did show a little bit of an 850-mb jet around Tennessee, which would likely contribute to more sufficient snowfall rates. Model soundings also show strong winds within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). The presence of 60-70 knot winds within this layer may lead to fractured dendrites and thus smaller snowflakes. With this in mind, JKL and neighboring offices collaborated to use NBM snow ratios over the higher WPC snow ratios. At current JKL and neighboring offices also used WPC QPF for the weekend storm over the more aggressive NBM QPF. The greatest uncertainty remains on low level forcing needed for sufficient snowfall growth and rates. With the absence of a low- level jet, that may be difficult to obtain. Even still, confidence is growing that the area will see heavy to significant snowfall. The 00Z Grand Ensemble run of the LREF showed the area with a 35-65% chance of exceeding 4 inches of snowfall.

As cold arctic air settles into the areas Saturday, temperatures will struggle to reach 20s north of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor. South of that area, temperatures will range from the upper to mid 20s. Saturday evening, snows showers will continue, with lows in the teens. Sunday afternoon, snow showers will slowly taper off west to east across the area heading into the night. Temperatures will range from the low to upper 20s north to south across the area.

Cold air will continue to advect into the area Sunday night and to start next week, with lows in the single digits across much of the area. Monday and Tuesday, although quiet, will also be quite cold. Highs will struggle to reach 30 on Monday, only to fall into the single digits again at night. Southwesterly winds Tuesday will help to advect warm air into the region, with highs reaching the upper 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 118 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Low level flow will increase significantly on Wednesday morning, especially just off the ground. This brings a potential for low level wind shear.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.