textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions will prevail for the next several days as temperatures climb back to above normal levels.

- September begins quite warm and heat indices may reach 100 degrees in a few spots each afternoon for Wednesday and Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 841 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

Have incorporated satellite imagery to better capture areas waiting for fog and low clouds to dissipate this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 430 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

The most current model data continues to suggest that the current forecast is on track for a dry and gradually warming period into Mid week with low to mid 90s on tap for highs to start as we are a bit warmer each day. We still see the potential for convection in a few of the model solutions across forecast area on Thursday and Friday - mainly in the afternoon and evening hours with better support from the ECMWF runs than the GFS at this point. Heat headlines may be needed for at least western parts of the area at midweek - depending on how effectively the higher dewpoints can move east into this part of the state.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Summer saw September coming and said hold my drink, I've got some fight left in me. The story of the extended period is the Death Ridge that sets up across Kentucky and points south starting on Sunday and continuing until at least mid-week next week. In addition to this increasing level of subsidence, surface winds will also be out of the SW across Kentucky due to a surface high pressure just to our east, allowing return flow and WAA into the region. Both combined will mean sunny, hot, and humid conditions. Upper 80s over the weekend will make way for low to mid 90s through much of the work week. Humidity will only insult things further, as heat indices are forecast to register in the upper 90s, even topping 100 degrees in some locations. Overnight lows will also gradually trend warmer throughout the work week, starting in the upper 60s over the weekend and ending in the low to mid 70s. Even if the forecast modifies slightly as we get closer in time, the numbers changing a couple degrees won't change the fact that it is going to be hot next week.

As far as precipitation, the strong subsidence should keep us dry through mid-week. As we head into Wednesday, we do have some slight chances of precipitation returning according to the NBM. However, looking at the models, the ridge is still very much on top of us, and none of the models are really showing any rain for the state. Therefore, expect that the NBM, despite it being low chances, may still be overdone. By Thursday, the models start to diverge in their solutions. The ECMWF shows the ridge finally breaking down across Kentucky, with NW flow returning and a surface system getting steered SE straight into the Ohio Valley with likely precipitation. Meanwhile, the GFS still shows big bubble no trouble overhead of Kentucky, with no precipitation in sight. Trying to blend between these two opposite model solutions, the NBM has gone with slight chances in some locations, ramping up to chances in the afternoon in the far east. Just like the temperatures, expect these pops to change and modify some as we get closer to onset and the models hopefully come into better agreement.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

Valley fog will be around for another hour or so, bringing localized IFR, or worse, conditions. The fog will stay away from TAF sites except KSJS but it will clear out shortly, leaving VFR conditions area-wide. A cumulus field is expected to develop around midday, especially nearer to the Kentucky/Virginia border. Valley fog develops again tonight but also not expected to affect the terminals much. Winds will be light and variable at less than 5 kts through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.