textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm brings significant, impactful snow and ice accumulations this weekend.

- Bitter cold weather returns tonight and lasts through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 11443 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

Blended latest obs into the forecast, but without any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 728 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

Sky cover has been adjusted this evening to account for the area of clouds moving southward over the southern portion of the forecast area. Models are not handling this well, so how they evolve is a bit uncertain. The updated forecast has them gradually lessening as they drop south, but continues with an eventual increase overnight as the winter storm approaches.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 202 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

A trailing shortwave crosses the area later in the day Monday, which will likely provide some enhancement to cold advection snow on the back side of the major winter storm for Monday afternoon and evening. Any accumulations will be very minor, however, as moisture will be a limiting factor, but are likely underdone currently given the dynamics with this trailing upper tropospheric PV anomaly tracking across the Tennessee Valley and southern Ohio Valley.

Arctic air settles over the region with flurries continuing into Tuesday morning. However, the big story by this time will be the cold, with widespread lows in the zero to 10 below zero range forecast, which will likely require cold weather headlines. The one saving grace is if clouds and flurries linger just a few hours longer than anticipated in Tuesday, which may keep temperatures closer to zero or perhaps just slightly above.

Additional clipper systems will graze or move across the area through the remainder of the long-term period, producing at least occasional rounds of flurries, and in the case of a stronger system late Wednesday into early Thursday, additional (light) measurable accumulations of snow. The LREF depicts at least a 50 percent chance for measurable snow (0.1-inch or greater) across the entire forecast area with this system, with a 15 to 25 percent chances for 1 inch or more of snow accumulation.

Each system will also be followed by reinforcing shots of cold, meaning temperatures will remain below freezing through the end of next week. In particular, next Friday morning may see another round of sub-zero readings if current trends manifest.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast until mid day on Saturday, although ceilings will begin lowering in the morning. Snow will develop from southwest to northeast across the area in the afternoon and conditions will deteriorate, dropping generally to IFR by 00z and persisting into the night. The snow should change to a mix of freezing rain and sleet over south central and southeast KY on Saturday evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.