textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing winds just above the surface are expected early this morning. Gusts outside of storms of 30 to 40 mph are possible and could be stronger near and north of I-64.

- Storm chances return through tonight. Some storms could be severe this morning as far south as locations near the Mtn Pkwy, and mainly south of the Mtn Pwky this afternoon and evening. - The primary threat from storms today will be damaging wind gusts. Isolated to scattered flash flooding is also possible in locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 151 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2026

Elevated convection stretching east/west across the central portion of the forecasts area has been fading, but surface based convection across the south is on the increase after temperatures climbed there through mid day. The precip and clouds over the northern and central portions of the forecast area have held temperatures down and it's questionable how much recovery there will be. In light of all this, have used a categorical POP over the central and south this afternoon with a sharp drop off northward toward I-64, and have backed off considerably for max temperatures over the central and north. In terms of severe wx threat, shear is not as favorable where the convection is favored this afternoon as compared to last night/early this morning at points further north. However, training storms will still be a concern and a Flood Watch remains in place for all except the I-64 corridor northward.

UPDATE Issued at 850 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026

Given recent CAM trends and trends with convection including upstream of the area, and some areas northwest of JKL along the Mtn Parkway corridor having picked up 2 inches of rain so far, opted to hoist a flash flood watch through 06Z Friday (3 AM EDT). The threat in the north appears to be waning as the outflow boundary is getting hung over the middle of the CWA.

UPDATE Issued at 525 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026

Tornado watch 349 has been issued through 11 AM EDT for northern and eastern sections of the CWA for the reasoning below. This line should continue to affect areas generally north of the Mtn Pkwy over the next few hours and upstream training way continue east near the I-64 corridor during that time and concerns could shift to heavy rain and excessive rain.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026

The long-term period opens Friday evening with lingering broad 500 hPa troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS while a similarly broad upper-level ridge extends from Mexico northward along the Rockies. Embedded shortwave energy is passing through the broad troughing while another Pacific trough is noted along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Lower Ohio Valley.

This will set the stage for a quiescent and pleasantly cool start to the weekend on Friday night with efficient radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Temperatures ranging in the 50s are expected to be widespread late in the night, and given recent rainfall, fog formation will be likely through many of the typically favored valley locations. Heights will then rebound weakly on Saturday as high pressure transits eastward. It will be quite delightful with highs in the lower to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.

Meanwhile, the West Coast shortwave trough energy will pass through and flatten the western ridge and eventually transit the Ohio Valley late Sunday into Monday. This will support an area of low pressure tracking from the Central Plains early Sunday morning to north of the Ohio River on Sunday evening and off the New England coast Monday evening and night. This system will lift a warm front across the Coalfields on Sunday, bringing rain chances back to the forecast and persisting into Monday before diminishing with the passage of the systems trailing cold front. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible during this time frame with elevated PWATs, though the system appears progressive overall. WPC has Day 4 and 5 Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (EROs) for eastern KY as well as sections of the OH Valley and Appalachians for the heavy rain potential with this following a few days after anticipated rainfall in the short term period. Another area of high pressure will pass across the Great Lakes for Tuesday and Wednesday with the return of cooler and drier weather.

Forecast daily high temperatures reach the warmest of the period on Sunday, ranging in the mid 80s for most locations before dropping back into the 70s to around 80F from Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows range from 55 to 65F, except on Sunday night when forecast lows are 65 to 70F.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026

Generally VFR conditions are currently in place south of KJKL and KSJS with gusts head of convection upwards of 25KT. At this time, a line of thunderstorms and sagging outflow boundary extends from just south of KSJS to KJKL. Within the convection, MVFR to IFR ceilings and vis are anticipated. Convection should continue between a line from KIOB to KSYM and to just south of KJKL and KSJS to begin the period, but may take a few hours to reach KLOZ and KSME. A generalized uptick in intensity with coverage reaching the more southern areas such as KLOZ and KSME may occur during the 16Z to 00Z timeframe. MVFR to IFR conditions driven by visibility reductions and lowered ceilings may become prevailing for a time at that point for some locations, with further reductions briefly possible at terminals impacted by thunderstorms. Wind gusts of 30 to 40KT or stronger will be possible in the stronger cells from near KJKL to KSJS south. Shower and storm chances will wane from northwest to southeast between 00Z and 09Z as a cold front drops south of the area. A continuation or prevailing MVFR and IFR may develop in the south late in the period per recent guidance.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080- 083>088-104-106>120.