textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A potential for damaging wind gusts with this afternoons storms remains in far eastern Kentucky.

- A slow-moving weather system keeps daily shower and storm chances, along with some heavy rain potential, in the forecast through Tuesday.

- Somewhat drier and warmer weather returns Wednesday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1102 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

Rain shower activity has decreased over the past hour across most ares. We are still seeing a few isolated showers in the far east, but overall the coverage of showers will continue to decrease through the rest of the night. No major changes needed for this update, but did opt to align forecast with the latest obs and trends.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 616 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

The models remain in good agreement with the long wave pattern through the end of next week. An upper level high pressure system will remain centered across the western Atlantic, strengthening through the latter half of the work week. Further west, a persistent ridge centered near the Four Corners region will also intensify during the period. Meanwhile, a deeper upper level low spiraling over the vicinity of Hudson Bay will spread cyclonic flow over the north central U.S. through next week. By the start of next weekend, both ridges will have dampened somewhat, with more model uncertainty regarding how much residual troughing can be maintained across the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Deep South. In general, this will result in a continuation of diurnally-driven convection each day through next week across eastern Kentucky, with elevated humidity levels and near normal temperatures expected for early August.

The models have trended more towards sustaining a closed low over the Deep South on Tuesday, with higher PoPs favored across our terrain, and lesser chances north, further away from the forcing. The upper low will drift closer to us on Wednesday, bringing higher rain chances to eastern Kentucky. LREF mean PWATs continue to range in the 50-75th percentile range of climatology, but storm motions look a bit slower this go around at around 10 kts, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The upper level low will dampen across the region on Thursday, with some degree of troughing remaining in place through the weekend, dependent on the strength of upstream cyclonic flow and any potential short wave energy migration. There still seems to be pretty good confidence in keeping any surface fronts north of the Ohio River, allowing for only weak forcing across our area. As such, expect mainly afternoon/early evening PoPs in place each day through Sunday, but convection should be more scattered in nature. Highs each day will average in the lower to middle 80s. Lows will moderate slightly from the mid to upper 60s to near 70 by next weekend, with elevated humidity levels in place.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

A weak area of low pressure continuing to cross Kentucky will maintain isolated to scattered shower activity through early this evening, primarily impacting the Lake Cumberland region. Brief reductions in visibility and ceilings to MVFR remain possible in heavier showers over the next couple of hours before activity dissipates with the loss of diurnal heating toward sunset. Attention then shifts to stratus and fog development late tonight into early Monday morning. Forecast soundings show a moist near- surface layer, though some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of low level mixing and whether stratus or dense fog will dominate. For now, a combination of low stratus and fog has been maintained across all TAF sites, with conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR (and localized LIFR) between 06Z and 13Z Monday. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to lift between 14Z and 15Z Monday, returning widespread VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light and variable overnight before turning northerly at 5 knots or less Monday afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.