textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry, warm, and humid conditions will favor fireworks displays this evening, outside of an isolated shower or storm. River valley fog develops overnight.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms return Sunday and Monday as a slow-moving cold front arrives. A few storms could produce isolated strong winds and localized flash flooding.

- The heat wave breaks next week, with daily highs returning to near-normal levels in the mid to upper 80s alongside daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 803 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026

No significant changes made to the forecast grids. However, did cancel the heat headlines as temperatures and heat indices no longer meet criteria.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 424 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026

The long-term period opens Monday with the prior week's heat wave just a memory. The 04/12Z model suite analysis beginning at 12Z Monday shows a split flow pattern over the Eastern Great Lakes with a positively-tilted trough extending southwestward into the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valley while a ridge axis extends northward to over northern Greenland. Meanwhile, an ~593 dam high will reside over the Upper Rio Grande Valley beneath a trough over Central Canada. At the lower levels, the pattern is subtle. A weak area of low pressure is likely to be in the vicinity of southern Indiana with a cold front extending southwest into the Ozarks.

Working through the upcoming work week, guidance is in fair agreement showing the upper-level trough propagating eastward with its axis crossing the CWA on Tuesday, causing the aforementioned cold front to drop through the forecast area. The notable exception is the ECMWF deterministic holding back a weak closed low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley which would inhibit the cold front's southward progression. Diurnally modulated deep convection is probable on both Monday into Tuesday with the frontal boundary nearing and dipping into the area. Greater uncertainty on overall convective coverage comes on Wednesday and depends on whether the front effectively dips south of the Commonwealth or gets hung up. In either case, the rain chances appear to increase again heading later in the week as the trough over Canada begins to dig southeastward and the Southwest US high shifts westward and then begins to amplify, pumping up a robust, positively tilted ridge axis from the Desert Southwest to southern Nunavut. At the surface, the front over us or to our south turns frontolytic as a new cold front settles southward toward the Ohio Valley.

In terms of heavy rainfall, a Marginal (level 1 of 4) ERO is in place through Monday night to highlight the threat of isolated flash flooding should storms become persistent over a given location ahead of the first cold front. A renewed low-end excessive rainfall threat may return late in the week as moisture returns ahead of the second boundary, but that is beyond the WPC ERO window at this point. Temperatures through the period will settle back into the mid to upper 80s for daily highs each afternoon while nighttime lows retreat into the 65 to 70F range for most locales. The typical valley fog is likely on any night with substantial clearing.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026

VFR conditions are occurring across all TAF sites with this issuance as surface high pressure remains dominant. However, convection is developing and these showers and storms could bring brief category reduction if one should move over a terminals; as well as, gusty and erratic outflow winds. With this issuance, KSYM is the only site that's forecast to see convection before it dissipates after sunset. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with locally dense river valley fog that may sneak into a terminal but confidence is low; therefore, was left out of the TAF. Better shower and storm chances arrive early Sunday afternoon. Outside of convection, winds are forecast to be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.