textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will inch higher through midweek, with humidity also climbing a bit into Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cold front moving into the area late in the week will give us our next expectation of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday or Thursday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 1009 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

Updated the forecast to include the latest observational and model data across the region, particularly for the T/Td/Sky grids. Early morning fog wording has been removed from the forecast as fog has mixed out across the area. No major adjustments were made to the forecast, and it remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

The extended portion of the forecast remains on track with a fairly strong 5h trough working through the Ohio Valley to close out the work week as the ridge retreats further to the south. The trough's associated sfc front may be wet enough to support excessive rainfall for parts of the area on Thursday and Friday. WPC has eastern Kentucky in a Day 3 and Day 4 Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. We will need to keep tracking this heavy rain potential during an otherwise benign extended forecast period.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period begins Wednesday morning with stout ridging over the southern half of the CONUS, while an active zonal jet stream remains across the far northern CONUS. The ridge will progressively get shunted south and east through Thursday and into Friday as a progressive shortwave pushes a cold front southeast into the southern Ohio Valley. However, it appears that the shortwave may outrun the surface front, leaving it to decay over or north of eastern Kentucky into the weekend as mid-level ridging builds back over the region.

The NBM was kept for the extended period, with the exception of adding modest ridge-valley splits for Wednesday night into Thursday morning ahead of the approaching system. Considerable uncertainty arises in the greater synoptic pattern as the coming weekend progresses into next week, particularly concerning the evolution of a cut-off upper level low over the Pacific Northwest this weekend, with downstream implications over the Midwest and Ohio Valley as ensemble systems become increasingly out of phase with each other.

WPC has introduced a Slight Risk ERO for Thursday into Thursday night across much of WV and into northeastern and far eastern Kentucky. This is as the approaching system Thursday into Friday will be intruding into a warm and humid environment characterized by PWs peaking in the 90th-95th percentile (according to the LREF) across much of the area northwest of the Cumberland Mountains. The orientation of the front, the perpendicular upslope wind component on the backside of the front, and the timing of arrival of heavy rain and/or thunderstorms at or near peak heating all suggest some potential for flash flooding along the windward side of the Appalachians.

PoPs are continued into the weekend as it appears the front decays over the region to end the week, with the potential for additional shortwaves and possibly weak surface lows to initiate at least spotty showers and thunderstorms across the area before mid-level heights likely rise Sunday into Monday of next week.

There is high confidence that temperatures remain above normal through the period, with the coolest day (and closest to normal readings) coming Friday with the upper trough overhead. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with lows mostly in the 60s, though a few lower 70s readings are possible Wednesday night in the warm humid environment ahead of the approaching front.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

VFR conditions were present at 12Z issuance. Localized valley fog will clear out shortly and then VFR conditions hold for the rest of the period. Any valley fog that develops tonight is also expected to not impact the TAF terminals. Look for winds to remain light and variable through the period, as well.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.