textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather continues through this afternoon.

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region between tonight and Wednesday morning, leading to widespread rain chances on Tuesday.

- Isolated severe storms are possible on Tuesday afternoon for areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 corridor.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will settle into the region for the beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 447 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025

The long-term forecast period commences with the approach of a second upper-level trough. The trough responsible for Tuesdays surface low will be absorbed into the mean flow, but simultaneously, a stronger shortwave trough is forecast to dive out of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. This second system is projected to track through the Great Lakes and usher another cold front through the area throughout the day Wednesday before quickly exiting late Wednesday night.

Following the exiting front on Wednesday night, a surface high- pressure system is forecast to build into the region and remain in place from Thanksgiving through late Saturday night. While surface high pressure prevails, the upper-level flow will persist out of the northwest, promoting the advection of colder air for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Long-term deterministic models and a significant portion of their individual ensembles suggest an active conclusion to the long-term period. While discrepancies exist among model runs, the consensus trend is a shortwave perturbation moving out of the southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This feature will bring increasing chances of rain showers, along with the potential for a rain/snow mix Sunday morning before temperatures warm sufficiently to support an all-rain precipitation type.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a couple of mid-week cold fronts, followed by high pressure building into the region on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant and seasonal until Thursday, when the cold front ushers in a significantly colder air mass for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Behind the front, overnight low temperatures will bottom out in the 20s for the mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before a warming trend begins for Sunday morning. Another low-pressure system is forecast to move into the area toward the end of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 634 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025

Terminals are a combination of LIFR, IFR, MVFR and VFR as fog is impacting all sites in some shape or another. This will be temporary as after sunrise, fog will burn off and all sites return to VFR. VFR TAFs will exist through the period until lowering CIGS and increasing shower chances arrive late tonight as a warm front moves through the area. Showers will increase in coverage after 03Z and bring reduced VSBY and lowered CIGS for the remainder of the TAF window. Winds will be light and variable through the period before increasing slightly out of the southwest post-warm frontal tonight. Winds will be enough to negate LLWS as turbulent mixing is occurring.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-120.