textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures return for Tuesday through Saturday.

- Near-record heat is possible Thursday with high temperatures within a few degrees of 90F.

UPDATE

Issued at 1125 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026

03Z sfc analysis shows a nearly dry cold front pushing southeast through the JKL CWA. Behind this a different air mass is building into the region with slightly drier dewpoints and a stirring of the winds from the north. Look for this nicer air to work deeper into this part of the state through the rest of the night. It should also keep the thickest fog confined to the deeper valleys - much different than the conditions we saw last night. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area - generally a little cooler in the valleys than on the ridges. Meanwhile, under mostly clear skies dewpoints vary from the mid 60s north to near 70 degrees in the south - ahead of the front. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and also to fine tune the low PoPs through the rest of the night per current radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 415 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026

The extended period opens with an upper-level ridge settling into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and surrounding areas of the Southeast US. Elsewhere, a trough resides north of the Northern Plains. Models depict a 598-600 dam high in the vicinity of Tennessee Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday, the aforementioned trough attempts to dig southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. However, model-to-model runs of the LREF Grand Ensemble show a stronger ridge, with influence extending further north into the Ohio Valley compared to previous runs. The upper-level ridge does eventually weaken and retrograde back to the southwest toward Texas heading into the weekend. This will leave the area under zonal flow with weak troughing.

At the surface, conditions remain fair both Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A weak warm front will pass through the forecast area from the southwest on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, a surface cold front extending southwest from Quebec through the Ohio Valley, approaches the forecast area from the northwest. The stronger ridge mentioned previously has trended the model mean temperatures warmer for Thursday and has lowered forecaster confidence on the front actually coming through. 850-mb temperatures around 19-20 C suggest surface temperatures could climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Thursday. At JKL, the record high temperature is currently 90, set back in 1991. This could be in play. One thing that may hinder those chances would be any added cloud cover or convection. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible though confidence is low. Model spread does increase Thursday onward surrounding the evolution of the nearby front. Therefore shower and storm chances remain in the forecast through Sunday. Forecast temperatures should cool some heading into the weekend, with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 751 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026

VFR conditions were observed across the CWA at the 00z TAF issuance time. Upstream, a weakening cold front is approaching form the northwest and will bring the possibility of an isolated shower or storm, primarily near and northeast of the KY-15 corridor. Confidence in convection impacting any TAF sites was too low to mention. At least some fog is also expected to redevelop in sheltered river valley locales overnight, but increasing low- level winds with the cold front should keep it away from the TAF sites. While only FEW to SCT cloud are expected at most terminals overnight, locations near the KY-VA border could see a period of MVFR ceilings. Winds will generally remain around or less than 5 kts through 6Z after which winds will gradually become north to northeast and increase to between 5 and 10 kts behind the cold front.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.