textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southwesterly winds between 25 and 35 mph are expected across eastern Kentucky today.

- These winds will advect an increasingly warm, moist airmass into the region. Expect several consecutive days with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, and mild overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. - After a weak passing disturbance yields isolated rain chances today, a more active weather pattern sets up for the second half of the week. Expect daily chances for showers and storms through the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 603 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

The models have remained in good agreement in the extended portion of the forecast, with amplified flow continuing across the CONUS through early next week. Troughing will be established west of the Mississippi River for the middle of the week, as rounds of energy move in from the eastern Pacific. A closed low will swing from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest by early this weekend, before transitioning to more of an open wave as it moves east across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Sunday. Troughing will then hang on in the East through early next week, gradually dampening with time.

Eastern Kentucky will remain firmly in the warm sector through early this weekend, with temperatures averaging between 15 and 20 degrees above normal through the period. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s each day, with lows in the 50s and 60s. Ridge/valley splits will occur Wednesday and Thursday nights. Model guidance continues to trend leaner on PoPs through this time, as better forcing remains more aligned to our northwest, despite ample moisture in place. PoPs will generally follow more of a diurnal trend each day through Saturday, with Thursday being the driest day overall. Still, blended guidance tends to overestimate these weaker forcing regimes, so PoPs may still be a bit generous at times. The main cold front will approach and move through the area Saturday night into Sunday, bringing out best chance of a more widespread beneficial rainfall. Rain chances will then decrease Sunday night into Monday as the front and deeper moisture exit to our east. Temperatures will also cool back to closer to normal readings for early April.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

Mainly just some occasional high clouds will be noted through the area into late morning. Winds, generally, will be southwest at 5 to 10 mph through 14Z, but the persistence of stronger southwest winds aloft will mean LLWS at up to 45 kts for another hour or so. Those winds will mix down effectively later this morning, leading to renewed surface gustiness of up to 25 or 30 kts, along with sufficient diurnal heating for a healthy cu field to develop and some sprinkles to fall. The gusty winds settle this evening but that will just allow more in the way of LLWS to set up again tonight from the southwest at up to 40 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.