textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected into the start of the evening.

- The approach of a strong cold front Sunday night will bring a possibility of strong thunderstorms, followed by a potential of snow with light accumulations behind the front Monday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 650 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026

The long wave pattern will feature highly amplified flow over the CONUS through next week. A strengthening short wave trough will start out pushing southeast across the northern and central Plains/Rockies early Sunday, while a seasonably strong eastern Pacific ridge moves toward the West Coast. The short wave trough will intensify rapidly Sunday into Monday, with a full latitude trough evolving over the central CONUS. At the surface, deepening low pressure will migrate from the Midwest into portions of the Ohio Valley, before curling northward into the Great Lakes. This will allow for a powerful cold front to sweep across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys late Sunday night into early Monday morning. The deep trough will then gradually shift east and broaden with time through the middle of next week, while broad ridging works in over portions of the Great Basin/Rockies. Model guidance disagrees more so on the northern extent and sharpness of the ridging towards the end of the next work week, which will dictate how quickly 500 mb heights recover over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys after Wednesday.

On Sunday, breezy conditions will be in place across eastern Kentucky, as the pressure gradient increases in response to the deepening low pressure system migrating from the Midwest to portions of the Ohio Valley. Have continued to modify the blended guidance upward for this pattern, using more of a 90th percentile for surface winds/gusts. Consequently, also went more aggressive on the high temperatures, using a 75th percentile, especially given that the flow is downsloped. This results in highs in the mid to upper 70s area-wide. Sunday night, an intense squall line will likely develop along an inbound powerful cold front. This line will likely shear and lose lightning with time as it works further east towards the central and southern Appalachians, where the surface-850 mb flow will remain downsloped. Still, the 850 mb jet is as high as 70 kts in some of the model guidance, so this may overcome the weak instability that will be in place. As is typical in this setup, locations along and west of I-75 will stand the best chance of seeing the potential for damaging wind gusts, with chances dropping off to the east. Still, it will be windy either way, and given the strength of the 925-850 mb wind field, 35-45 mph+ wind gusts just ahead of and especially behind the cold front will be possible. This will be dependent on how vertically stacked theta surfaces remain in a deep enough layer of the atmosphere below 700 mb. The NAM/ECMWF are more bullish, while the GFS is more muted with this signal. Widespread showers will eventually move through all of eastern Kentucky late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Blended guidance is usually too slow with these types of systems, so have favored a faster timing with the PoPs.

Winter will return behind this cold front, with high temperatures established early in the day on Monday, ranging from the 40s west, to around 60 in the east (highly timing dependent). Temperatures will then fall through the 30s for the rest of the day. Rain showers will transition to snow showers from west to east. This changeover will also occur earlier across our higher elevations across southeastern Kentucky. Warm ground temperatures will limit the impacts, but some light snow accumulations will be possible on elevated surfaces, and some impact above 2500 feet can not be ruled out. Moisture will diminish Monday night/early Tuesday, with snow showers ending across southeastern Kentucky. Lows Monday night will be around 20 degrees. Highs on Tuesday could threaten minimum high temperature records, generally in the mid 30s, particularly if clouds hold on longer than expected. This will set the stage for another cold night Tuesday, with lows around 20, although some cloud cover could thwart these readings. Temperatures will then warm from Wednesday through Friday. Highs will moderate from the 40s and 50s on Wednesday, to the low to mid 60s by Friday. There will be a small potential of precipitation on Wednesday and again on Friday, but confidence is low.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The main concern will be winds. SW gusts of 25-30 kts initially will slacken significantly around sunset then be light overnight picking up from the east at 5 to 10 kts during the day, Saturday. Any ceilings will be limited to times of passing mid and high level cloud cover.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-104-106>112-114-119-120.