textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Briefly warmer weather will last through Thursday before very cold weather returns and lasts into next week.

- A major winter storm system will likely bring significant snow and possibly ice accumulations this weekend.

....A Major Winter Storm Is Forecast For Eastern Kentucky.

To end the work week, Eastern Kentucky will see a cold front pass through the area during the morning hours Friday. This cold front could produce some scattered snow showers and perhaps some mixed precip across portions of southeast Kentucky, though probabilities remain low (15% chance) and with little to no impacts expected. High temperatures will range from the upper 20s to upper 30s north to south across the area. Heading into Friday night, expect temperatures to fall through the teens into the single digits north of I-64, and into the low to mid teens south.

Our attention turns next to the weekend, as an offshore low off the Southern California coast, a "Baja-Low" is expected to eject eastward into the Central Plains sometime Saturday. Strong upper- level winds will help surge moisture out ahead of the system and Into the Central US, and Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. While this occurs, a Gulf-Low will also feed moisture northward into the Tennessee Valley. All-while a trough digs south across the Northern Plains and into the Ohio Valley.

Models and ensembles continue to show increasing potential for a significant winter storm that is expected to bring moderate to major impacts to Eastern Kentucky. With it, periods of moderate to heavy snowfall are forecast Saturday through Sunday with the possibility of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain, especially along and south of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway. Model spread is still quiet large when it comes to the details. The European model for instance has had a northward shift over the last 3-4 model runs, shifting the heaviest axis of snow northward. This is likely due to the presence of a low over the Great Lakes. This low is present in the latest model runs at 850-mb, but absent in previous runs. The GFS in general is the more progressive model, so the start time for snowfall with that suite of models is early Saturday morning, where the previously mentioned Euro could have snow arriving as late as Saturday afternoon or early evening. Winds within the dendritic growth zone continue to remain strong, supporting the theory that dendrites will likely be fractured, leading to the potential of lower snow ratios. The ECMWF EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) shows Eastern Kentucky with EFI values of 0.80-0.90. This signals with high confidence that snowfall will be extreme, relative to what the state is used to for an average snowfall in January. As for a shift of tails (SOT) value of 2, this indicates that we have the potential to be well past record breaking snowfall. That said, local records are a bit puny.

Latest ensembles are also showing an increased probability of 850-mb temperatures being greater than 0 Celsius, in our southern counties. This speaks to the possibility of mixed precipitation including sleet and freezing rain, south of and including the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway. When looking at the LREF Grand Ensemble, the probability of seeing 0.30 inches of ice in this area ranges from 35-45%. Additionally, of the 3 models making up the LREF, the ECMWF's ENS is missing from the solution. Looking at that ensemble, the probability of 850-mb temperatures exceeding 0 Celsius was at 60-70% with the 00Z model run, and increase to 70-80% with the latest 12Z run. This adds to growing confidence of a wintry mix along and south of the KY- 80/Hal Rogers Parkway, and would also likely lead to lower snowfall totals.

When looking at the GFS ensemble, the probability of exceeding 6 inches of snowfall ranges from 30-60 percent across the area. Moreover, the area with the highest chances of seeing 6 inches of snowfall remains just north of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Parkway. While the same general area with the highest probability of seeing more than 6 inches of snowfall has remained the same over the last few model runs, the probability has decreased. All this to further illustrate that models are still wavering and have yet to converge on an overall common solution. This storm however continues to have the potential to be the biggest storm in some time.

Beyond the weekend, cold arctic night-time temperatures will take over the spotlight. Sunday night, in the wake of the exiting system, temperatures are expected to fall into the single digits for most of the area. Some snow showers may linger into Monday morning, especially across far Eastern Kentucky. Otherwise, expect a brisk Monday, with decreasing clouds and temperatures ranging from the teens to mid 20s northwest to southeast across the area. Monday night into Tuesday morning, higher pressure builds into the area, and under partly cloudy skies, temperatures could range from five above to five below zero. Wind chills or apparent temperates could also be approaching or exceeding Cold Weather thresholds, so this will have to be monitored as we get closer. Tuesday will also be quiet, with temperatures warming into the low to mid 20s across the north and upper 20s to lower 30s across the south. At night, temperatures cool again into the single digits to near 10 degrees for much of the area. Some southerly winds ahead of the next potential system will allow high temperatures to warm into the upper 20s to upper 30s on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 654 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026

An area of rain was moving across eastern KY at issuance time with lower end VFR ceilings in the south and east, and MVFR and IFR reported further to the north and west. Some gustiness is also occurring as the showers arrive. The rain and deteriorating conditions will continue shifting southeastward to begin the period, with MVFR conditions or lower anticipated by around 03Z. The rain should taper off from northwest to southeast during the first 3 to 5 hours of the period. Generally MVFR or IFR will prevail for most locales during the first 6 hours of the period. Thereafter, times of both VFR and MVFR and brief IFR are anticipated through 12Z, with mainly MVFR forecast for the TAF sites. Improvement to VFR is forecast areawide during the second 12 hours of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.