textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather is expected through the rest of the weekend though there remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms this morning.

- Warmer temperatures and a greater potential for showers and thunderstorms return to start the new work week.

- These storms could be more organized and strong to severe on Monday afternoon into the night depending on MCS development and evolution to the north of Kentucky.

- Drier weather returns for the second half of the upcoming work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 807 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026

We continue to be plagued by the some low stratus and even some drizzle this morning. Given this will keep some higher cloud cover and drizzle going through the morning, as forecast soundings show low level moisture gets stuck beneath an inversion. Outside of these updates overall forecast looks on track.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 520 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to include some slight terrain distinctions into temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday night, though some uncertainty remains as to the sky cover, post frontal. Strong 5h ridging to the west still looks to support a persistent glide path for mid-level shortwaves to dive into eastern Kentucky through the middle of the new work week. One in particular, on Monday evening and overnight, continues to indicate a potential for severe weather given a fairly strong wind field, plenty of instability lingering through sunset, and model suggestions of MCS activity possibly dropping into northern parts of the JKL CWA that night.

The previous long term discussion follows:

An amplified and pretty stagnant long wave pattern will remain in place over the CONUS through next week. The center of an anomalously strong upper level ridge will gradually shift west over the Four Corners region, while troughing dominates east of the Mississippi River. This will allow for northwesterly flow to continue to be in place aloft across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys early in the upcoming week, with unsettled weather expected. As troughing sharpens up more so across the Eastern Seaboard by the middle and latter half of the work week, enough residual 500 mb height rises will occur across eastern Kentucky to allow for a return of drier weather from Wednesday through Friday, before at least small rain chances return by Saturday, as upper level height falls return across the region.

The threat of MCS activity will be on the table from Monday through Tuesday across eastern Kentucky. Model guidance has been inconsistent in positioning and timing, typical even within 24 hours or less, let alone 36-48 hours out. At this time, the majority of model guidance is pointing more towards a quieter daytime period on Monday, as Sunday night's activity looks to stay and exit mainly to our west. Heat and humidity will continue to build in across the area, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and dew points in the lower 70s. While most activity currently looks to move in after sunset, given the potential for upstream outflow migration and influence, having at least 20-30 PoPs in place as the latest guidance has offered up seems reasonable. Better PoPs move in Monday night and linger into Tuesday. The progressive nature of this activity lends to less of a hydro concern; however, freezing levels will remain high and PWATs will be peaking in the 75th-90th percentile range, so some quick bursts of heavy rainfall are still possible. Additionally, any residual outflow boundaries aligning more parallel with the upper level flow will also need to be monitored, as this would be more conducive to training cells. Cold pool intensity and longevity will dictate the strong to damaging wind gust potential, and this threat will exist Monday and Monday night across our area.

Another hot and humid day is on tap for Tuesday, with additional MCS activity potentially in the vicinity, although even more uncertainty exists regarding the details. A surface cold front will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for the area by Wednesday, with surface high pressure settling across the Ohio Valley. Highs will retreat to more seasonable lower to middle 80s, while lows range from the low to mid 60s at night. Drier weather will give way to small rain chances (around 30%) by Saturday, as high pressure weakens at the surface, and more troughing takes place aloft. Fortunately, dew points will only moderate back into the mid 60s by the start of the next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026

We have seen some pesky stratus that has plagued much of the area this morning and now into the afternoon. We are seeing this slowly scatter out through the afternoon hours. However, did keep a few sites (JKL, SYM, and IOB) in the MVFR range for Cigs this afternoon for at least another hour. Outside this we will see most sites return to VFR through the afternoon into the evening. The forecast soundings then favor fog potential tonight. The extent of this fog is still uncertain especially at SME. This is because a complex of storms will move across mainly portions of western and central Kentucky, but given the uncertainty did add in a Prob30 for a few hours late tonight into early Monday morning for rain showers and resulting vis restrictions. Outside this, added a combination of fog/low stratus in the MVFR to IFR range with fog being the primary concern. Winds will be light and variable at or below 5 knots through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.