textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather will continue through tonight as a front remains stalled in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times this afternoon into the evening, which could lead to isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- Temperatures will warm to above normal levels by the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 145 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also update the PoP into the daylight hours per the current radar returns and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1016 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

The late evening update is out with little in the way of significant change. Sky grids were updated to delay onset of thicker cloud cover from the south by a few hours, and hourly temperatures were updated using the most recent observations as the initialization of the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 648 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

A stationary front extending from central KY southeast to near the Cumberland Gap will get shunted north overnight as upper disturbances move southwest to northeast across central KY. Based on observational and model trends, have lowered PoPs through much of tonight, with the best chance of showers and/or storms toward Lake Cumberland and toward the Bluegrass and Pennyroyal regions along and just east of the passage of the upper shortwaves.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 412 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

Aloft, at 500 mb, prominent features include an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West and Central Plains, while a trough sits over the Great Lakes and Northeast. In time, the ridge is expected to move east into the Southeast US including the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. When this ridge does make its way into the region, rising heights will support warmer temperatures, likely into the upper 80s and lower 90s. However, the last several model runs of the LREF Grand Ensemble show the area holding onto the Northeast trough a little longer while the mean positioning inches farther south with each successive run, thus potentially delaying the warming trend.

Currently, ensembles have the ridge building into the area sometime Monday, cresting over the area Tuesday and Wednesday before another upper level trough digs out of Central Canada into the Great Lakes later in the week.

For sensible weather: Sunday morning soundings suggest elevated winds within the lower boundary layer near the surface, as well as a surface layer thats not completely saturated. NBM guidance depicted areas of fog across the CWA Sunday morning, but due to the above-mentioned mitigating factors, edits were made to confine fog development to the more sheltered river valleys and hollows. Regardless, any fog formation should mix out by mid-morning.

There may also be some isolated shower or thunderstorm chances along the Kentucky/Virginia border Sunday morning. As the Great Lakes trough progresses through the northern Ohio Valley into the Northeast, heights will temporarily fall heading into Monday. With the potential for delayed trough timing, offices northeast of the CWA have introduced isolated shower chances overnight Sunday into Monday, though confidence was still too low to include the same chances across some of our northeastern counties at this time. At the surface, a cold front will move through the area Sunday evening and overnight. Patchy river valley fog may develop in the overnight hours. The passage of the cold front is expected to lead to cooler temperatures Monday, ranging from the lower to mid 80s north to south. With rising heights Tuesday and Wednesday, afternoon high temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s before cooling into the upper 60s at night.

Towards the end of the forecast period, as the secondary trough moves into the Ohio Valley, a cold front at the surface is expected to move into the area sometime Thursday and Friday. Models and ensembles start to deviate, leading to the NBM smoothing PoP out over both days. Generally, a 20-45% PoP is in the forecast for this time to account for the uncertainty.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026

The front to the south will lift north across the terminals through dawn and into the day. To the north of this boundary, primarily along and north of KJKL and KSJS, low stratus and/or fog may bring and extended period of MVFR/IFR conditions. As the front passes, warm advection will increase resulting in deteriorating conditions from VFR/MVFR to MVFR/IFR as widespread showers and thunderstorms develop by afternoon. Confidence in timing/location of this convection was still too low to include with anything but PROB30 groups at specific TAF sites, though. Look for the convection to wind down later tonight, but that will probably just allow for areas of fog and low clouds to impact the airports. Winds will be light and variable through the rest of the night, trending south to southwesterly at less than 10 kts as daytime heating commences behind the warm frontal passage. However, gusty and erratic winds will be possible within/near storms from late morning through the remainder of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for KYZ044- 052-104-106-107-109-110-119-120.