textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A boundary wavers over the region tonight and Sunday, with small shower chances returning to counties along the TN and VA state lines on Sunday.

- Drier and cooler air spreads across the area on Sunday night, then lingers through the first half of the work week.

- Expect warmer temperatures for the second half of the work week, but with continued dry weather conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 1045 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a front now southeast of Kentucky with high pressure off to the northeast. This high is working to push drier air and clearer skies into the area on light northeast winds. Meanwhile, dewpoints remain high in the southeast with ample low clouds but most showers staying just across the border with Tennessee and Virginia. Currently, temperatures vary from the upper 50s in the northeast valleys to the mid 60s in the south closer to that front. Meanwhile, dewpoints range from the upper 40s to lower 50s north to the lower 60s in the south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with a tweaking of the fog expectations overnight. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 443 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Those who have been looking forward to pleasant autumn weather across Eastern Kentucky are in luck, because the long term forecast period is just that. When the period opens on Monday, a drier and cooler airmass will be advecting into the region via northerly to northwesterly flow throughout the atmospheric column. Shifting synoptics aloft will cause the mid/upper level flow to adopt a quasi- zonal orientation by midweek, and the corresponding surface anticyclone is expected to propagate east through the Wabash and Ohio River Valleys in this same time frame. While mostly clear skies and the loss of the northerly wind component favor a warming trend, neither of these shifts favor efficient moisture return. Rather, they favor a prolonged period of efficient diurnal insolation and mixing processes in Eastern Kentucky.

In sensible weather terms, this means that widespread high temperatures in the 70s on Monday and Tuesday will creep towards the 80 degree mark as the week progresses. Southern and western locales will be the first to return to highs in the 80s on Wednesday, with these above-normal high temperatures creeping further east-northeast on Thursday and again Friday. However, dewpoints will likely struggle to rise much higher than the low to mid 50s. Efficient diurnal mixing should yield dewpoint depressions on the magnitude of 25-35 degrees, and it is plausible that those dewpoints could under- perform the blended NBM guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids. Nevertheless, with fair skies in the forecast grids, it should feel fantastic outside each afternoon. These are prime conditions for outdoor fall activities such as hiking and leaf- chasing, so get outside and enjoy it!

This week's synoptic weather pattern is also favorable for efficient radiational cooling at night. Expect ridge/valley temperature splits to emerge after sunset each night, with the shadier valleys dropping off the fastest. Some of the most sheltered/shaded valley locales could experience lows in the upper 30s on Monday and Tuesday nights, but most valley locations should experience MinTs in the 40s this week. Fog remains favored over frost as a result, with the greatest fog coverage expected along the area's waterways. Therefore, aside from localized visibility reductions from the AM fog, the risk for hazardous weather in the long term forecast period is quite low.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026

Earlier low clouds have eased to the southeast part of the area - still affecting the southern TAF sites. Currently, mostly clear skies are found from JKL north and west. Elsewhere, mainly MVFR and IFR ceilings persist. These ceilings should slowly improve into high-end MVFR or low-end VFR by 06Z before conditions flag again as areas of fog and additional lower clouds develop. KIOB and KSYM will probably see enough drying to stay unaffected while terminals farther south see periods of IFR or LIFR through 14Z, Sunday morning. Conditions will then gradually improve toward the end of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable through the period, remaining at or below 5 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.