textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, muggy, and mostly dry weather takes hold for Thursday. Afternoon highs around 90 degrees combined with high humidity will push peak heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees.

- A progressive cold front brings widespread showers and numerous thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, with a threat for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall.

- High pressure ushers in a brief break of cooler and drier air for Saturday, before unsettled weather and rain chances return Sunday through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1145 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast aside from adding some showers or a stray thunderstorm in the Cumberland Valley towards dawn given the latest CAM runs. Did also include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure to the southeast of Kentucky controlling our weather currently with clear skies and a quiet radar scope. Some activity is noted well off to the northwest, again this evening, closer to low pressure and the nearest frontal boundaries. Some of this may eventual impinge downstream on northern parts of Kentucky towards dawn per the latest CAMs. Otherwise, a quiet night is expected with the development of valley fog and a small to moderate ridge/valley temperature split. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 80s. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to remove the shower and thunderstorm chances this evening per the CAMs guidance and to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 342 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026

The forecast period begins with the approach of a cold front that is presently moving across the Midwest. By the start of the extended forecast period, this boundary will be on the doorstep of the CWA, bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. While showers and storms remain likely throughout the day on Friday, PoPs are starting to diminish slightly with each passing model run; however, guidance remains consistent enough that the overall message is unchanged. Analyzing the latest forecast soundings ahead of Fridays frontal passage, a potent thermodynamic environment is expected to develop across the region. Stout moisture advection will be underway ahead of the boundary, but a disconnect remains between the thermodynamic and kinematic profiles. Forecast wind shear values remain meager, with bulk shear values staying less than 25 knots across the entire CWA through FROPA. Even with weak kinematics, steep lapse rates combined with both MUCAPE and MLCAPE ranging from 2,000 to 2,500 J/kg will provide ample instability. Additionally, DCAPE values ranging from 800 to 900 J/kg point toward a wet microburst environment where gusty outflow winds, some of which could reach severe limits, will be possible. Precipitable water values ranging from 1.80 to 1.90 inches also lend credit to heavy rainfall potential. Fortunately, the front is forecast to be progressive, limiting the overall flash flooding threat. Nonetheless, this combination of convective ingredients has prompted a Day 3 SPC Marginal Risk for the entire area, with a Slight Risk for the far eastern portions of the CWA, as well as a Day 3 WPC Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Once frontal passage occurs, skies will clear and weak surface high pressure will build into the area by early Saturday morning. Pre-frontal daytime temperatures on Friday are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, but weak CAA behind the front will allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid-60s Friday night.

Surface high pressure will firmly build into the region behind the front for Saturday into early Sunday. Daytime highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s, while overnight lows range from the low to mid-60s. Unfortunately, this weak surface high pressure will be pushed out of the area late Saturday night as a secondary cold front drops southeastward into the region. This next system will bring increasing shower and storm chances beginning Sunday morning and persisting through Monday afternoon. It is worth noting, however, that model consensus degrades significantly going into early next week behind this second front. Extended guidance solutions quickly diverge, with the ECMWF remaining active while the GFS provides a lull in activity until Wednesday. Nonetheless, under the influence of these persistent rain chances and subsequent cloud cover, temperatures on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be notably cooler, averaging about 10 to 15 degrees lower than Saturday and Sunday.

In short, the region will experience a very active weather pattern driven by two cold fronts. The first front brings a line of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms on Friday, followed by a brief break with pleasant weather on Saturday. A second cold front arrives Sunday into Monday, bringing another round of widespread rain and locking in much cooler, below-average temperatures for the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026

VFR conditions were present to start the period. Isolated showers/thunderstorms cannot be ruled out late tonight and during the day Thursday in extreme eastern and southeastern Kentucky. However, their potential is too limited to include even as a PROB30 in the TAFs. Fog with IFR conditions is expected to develop in valley locations early this morning, especially in southeast Kentucky, but should not impact any TAF sites. Winds will be light tonight and around 10 kts or less on Thursday - away from any stray thunderstorm.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.