textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder temperatures will make a comeback for the next week. - The greatest probability of precipitation (mainly rain) over the next week is tonight or Thursday for most locations.

UPDATE

Issued at 640 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

Winds have settled a bit across the north with still some good gusts found to the west of the JKL CWA. Will remove the mention in the HWO and let the SPS expire at 13Z. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 500 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

As the period begins, an upper level trough is expected to extend across the Great Lakes into the eastern Conus from an upper low near or north of Hudson Bay with the axis of that trough west of eastern KY to begin the period. Meanwhile an upper level ridge is progged to be centered west of the Baja vicinity with the axis of this ridge extending north west of CA to OR coast. An initial shortwave trough is expected to be moving into the Central/Southern Appalachians about that point. A wavy frontal zone should be sagging further southeast of eastern KY at that time as well and deeper moisture (PW per 12Z LREF mean ranging from near 0.4 inches or near the 50th percentile for this time of year to about 0.5 to 0.6 inches or the 60th to 70th percentile for this time of year) already having departed following widespread rainfall in the near term period.

Thursday night to Friday night, the upper level ridge is expected to remain centered near or southwest of Baja with the ridging extending north into the southwest Conus as a trough/upper low in the eastern Pacific nears the Pacific coast. Downstream, in the mean, broad troughing will remain from Canada into the eastern and portions of the Central Conus and west northwest to northwest flow should be prevalent across the Conus with the stronger westerlies extending from the Gulf of AK across BC to near the US/Canadian border across the Great Lakes to the Northeast/St Lawrence Valley. Another shortwave should cross the area early on Friday and may usher in slightly drier air with no real notable sensible weather though some modest 500 mb height rises are anticipated on Friday behind it. PW falls to about 0.3 to 0.35 or the 40th to 45th percentile per the 12Z LREF mean through Friday with high pressure generally dominating. This will result in some drying following the rain event and with a good amount of solar insolation anticipated afternoon dewpoints could end up a bit lower than the NBM deterministic forecast and hedge down slightly for Friday afternoon. Rain chances and QPF have both trended down for Thursday evening in the guidance and decreasing clouds and low level moisture in the more northwestern and western locations following a rain event and suppressed temperatures on Thursday could result in some at least patchy fog in the more western locations for Thursday night. The dry airmass should warm to above normal levels as well with upper 50s north to the low to mid 60s south compared to normals ranging from around 50 in the far north to the low to mid 50s south.

A sfc ridge extending from east of the Northeast/mid Atlantic back west into the Appalachians will begin to depart Friday night as the next shortwave moving near the US/Canadian border rotates through parts of the Great Lakes, Ontario and to Quebec. A trailing frontal zone may drop across the western and central Great Lakes to the mid MS Valley to Central Plains. The pattern of the departing ridge remaining generally dominant and very little cloud cover forecast will likely set the stage for a moderate magnitude ridge/valley split for Friday night at least for eastern sections of the area as compared to the NBM deterministic more uniform lows. Ridgetops in the coalfields per point NBM data and MOS guidance may not fall lower than around 40 if not the lower 40s while the normally colder areas may drop to about he 30 degree mark as suggested by recent Coop MOS guidance. Terrain adjustments were made here to be reflect the synoptic pattern.

The upper trough should continue toward the Maritimes to being the weekend over the weekend while broad troughing remains from Canada into the eastern and parts of the central Conus as ridging remains centered near Baja with axis moving to near or east the Four Corners region. The frontal zone should drop into the Commonwealth to begin the weekend on Saturday but forcing will be better north or northeast of eastern KY and moisture will be limited, PW per the 12Z LREF mean climbing to on the order of 0.4 to 0.5 inches or about the 50th to 60th percentile through Saturday evening. Better moisture could lag into Saturday night into early Sunday per recent GFS operational runs while the ECMWF is drier. Light precipitation cannot be completely ruled out.

Guidance generally suggests that better moisture may move into the OH Valley early in the new week with PW perhaps reaching 0.6 to 0.7 inches around midday on Monday per the 12Z LREF mean or on the order of the 70th to 80th percentile and remain around those levels through Tuesday as a system may develop in the High Plains as the upper ridge extending in parts of the western US flattens and multiple disturbances move from the Pacific across the western US and into the Plains and toward the eastern Conus in the westerlies as an upper low trough meander toward the Pacific coast. At the same time, the frontal zone that crossed the area over the region may lift back north as a warm front or a baroclinic zone redevelop in the OH Valley vicinity. More substantial precipitation, generally all rain would be possible during the first half of next week and the long duration of chance pops from the NBM look reasonable to end the period.

Temperatures remain mild into Saturday before a north to south gradient in temperatures may take hold to end the weekend and start early next week. More southern locations may remain 10 or more degrees above normal for highs Monday into Tuesday with more northern locations nearer to average for this time of year. The exact temperatures will be highly dependent on the location of the frontal zone and falling precipitation if persistent could result in lower highs compared to the current forecast in the more southern locations. Pending instability details, some thunder could also occur early next week and possibly result in localized higher rainfall.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 705 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026

VFR was holding on at the 12Z issuance time and should stay through about 18Z Wednesday when some MVFR may develop in the more southern locations. An overall lowering of clouds is expected with time, through the next TAF issuance. A LLWS threat remains for most of the area until around 15Z with winds aloft from southwest at up to 45 kts. Patchy light rain is also possible as a sagging front approaches from the north but should have minimal impact to any of the TAF terminals. Winds will stay breezy through the morning generally from the southwest at 10 to 15 kts with gusts to near 25 kts, at times - diminishing slowly this afternoon and more substantially after dark. Otherwise, as the front sags into the area, low and mid level moisture is expected to increase, especially in the more southern locations later tonight with the possibility of, mainly light, rain. However, better rain chances and the probability of sub VFR ceilings move in areawide tonight with IFR lower conditions expected in the south as the forecast period ends.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.