textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the weekend and into the middle of next week, with the greatest coverage for the area, as a whole, today and Saturday as well as from Tuesday through Thursday.

- A few of the storms could become strong to severe this evening with damaging winds being the primary threat. - Isolated heavy to excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent.

UPDATE

Issued at 948 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026

Lowered PoPs one-half to full category for the next several hours beginning at 03z as cloud tops begin to warm and SPC Mesoanalysis depicts a stabilizing near-surface environment with the loss of daytime heating. Cannot rule out an isolated shower or storm toward the West Virginia border where some lingering synoptic lift may remain with a passing shortwave aloft.

UPDATE Issued at 647 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026

Quick early evening update is out with a minor revision to PoPs and Sky grids based on current observed trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with no major changes.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 543 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026

When the long term forecast period opens on Sunday morning, there may be ongoing showers and thunderstorms across Northeastern Kentucky. That activity is associated with a subtle shortwave disturbance propagating around the base of the broad mid/upper level troughing centered over the Great Lakes region. That troughing is progged to flatten out and lift north of the forecast area as the day progresses, with midlevel height rises and quasi-zonal flow observed across the commonwealth in its wake. Barring any particularly stubborn cloud debris from the AM convection, such a setup favors efficient diurnal warming. Sunday's highs have trended a few degrees upwards compared to previous forecast packages, especially in southern and western locales. Expect highs in the mid/upper 80s, but a few readings near 90 cannot be ruled out. Such temperatures should be sufficient enough for another round of convection to blossom in the second half of the forecast area later that afternoon/evening. Sunday's PoPs have accordingly risen towards scattered coverage values (25-45%) in the southern half of our CWA, but any thunderstorms would likely be of the garden variety (sub- severe). They will still pose a risk for locally gusty winds, lightning, and torrential downpours, but widespread impactful weather is not anticipated.

With the return of quasi-zonal flow aloft, a weak surface pressure gradient, and the increased potential for antecedently wet grounds, Sunday night is shaping up to be a candidate for nocturnal radiation fog. Confidence in fog formation is greatest in the typically- impacted river valleys, but patchier fog may develop elsewhere in such a setup. Expect fog to begin to mix out during the Monday morning commute, setting up a generally pleasant, but hot, late summer day in Eastern Kentucky. Most of the area will experience a reprieve from the recent excessive rainfall risks on Monday, with only isolated showers and storms expected along the terrain in SE KY. Continued midlevel height rises and strengthening southwesterly low level flow will yield highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Dewpoints in the 70s combine with these temperatures to yield widespread heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. A few readings near 100 degrees cannot be ruled out in urbanized areas and in the deepest valley locales.

The attention then turns towards a series of ridge-riding shortwave impulses approaching the forecast area between Tuesday and Friday. The presence of these disturbances in the coarse long term guidance causes scattered to numerous coverage-level PoPs to reenter the forecast by midweek, but it remains difficult to pinpoint the exact temporal oscillations within those PoPs. Pattern recognition continues to suggest that next week's convection could take the form of MCSes moving through the Ohio River Valley. The available medium- range machine learning models and analog-based convective guidance still suggest that a risk for damaging wind gusts could materialize in the late Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. This will likely be accompanied by a threat for heavy rainfall, and WPC has already delineated a Slight (Level 2/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Tuesday. Depending on the evolution of each successive round of convection, a risk for flash flooding could materialize across the commonwealth. Confidence in forecast details like rainfall totals and favored corridors for training storms/backbuilding is low at the current temporal range, so interests are encouraged to monitor for updates in the coming days. On the plus side, increased sky cover should help quell the heat in the latter stages of the work week. Expect temperatures to modulate back down towards seasonably appropriate highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s by the end of the period on Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 726 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026

At TAF issuance, numerous showers and thunderstorms were occurring over northeastern Kentucky to the east of KSYM and north of KSJS, with an isolated storm east of K1A6 near the Cumberland Gap and moving east-northeast. This activity is likely to remain primarily over northeastern Kentucky and move into WV as the evening progresses, with isolated convective activity possible otherwise through much of the overnight as an incoming upper level disturbance could still support a few stray showers or thunderstorms overnight. Where sufficient clearing occurs, primarily river valley fog can be expected overnight, though may occur outside of valleys where heavier rain amounts have fallen in recent days. Forecaster confidence in overnight impacts at any particular TAF site was too low to include in this forecast issuance outside of PROB30 groups. Winds will generally be southwesterly at less than 10 kts through the period.

Convection redevelops with diurnal heating over much of the area Saturday, with PROB30 groups indicated at this time at TAF sites. Gusty and erratic winds may occur near and within thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.