textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A messy winter weather event is ongoing early this morning, with rain and mixed precipitation changing to snow from northwest to southeast.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder than normal.

- The pattern will turn active again towards the weekend with additional chances of precipitation.

UPDATE

Issued at 801 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

Weather is progressing pretty much on track with the forecast, with the back edge of significant precip making its way southeast through the area. Have updated temperatures based on latest obs and trends, and made any necessary adjustments (which were very few) to freezing drizzle potential.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 521 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

At the onset of the long-term period, a 590-dm sub-tropical high resides over the Gulf, centered over Cuba. A sub-500-dm low remains over the Hudson Bay area, with a trailing cold front down through Southeast Canada, The Great Lakes, and back through the Ohio Valley. All-while a ridge of high pressure dominates the Pacific, from Hawaii all the way up to the Yukon region. Models and ensembles are in good agreement through Friday.

Wednesday night, increasing clouds can be expected across Eastern Kentucky as the cold front from the Hudson Bay low traverses the Ohio Valley with a slight chance of snow showers just north of Fleming County. Temperatures overnight are expected to fall into the low to mid 20s in hollows and sheltered valleys, while ridgetops remain in the upper 20s to near 30. While this cold front passes to the north, moisture gets pulled around the Gulf high into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Frontogenesis is expected later Thursday. Current models put a slug of rain across the Southeast U.S. while Eastern Kentucky remains rather unscathed. There is a period Thursday night where a slight chance of snow showers exists with no major impacts expected.

Friday and beyond, model and ensemble spread increases considerably with disagreement in timing and placement of systems. The ECMWF lags the showers across the Southeast U.S. until Friday, and also has showers further north across Eastern Kentucky. As a result POPs fluctuate between 15-35% Friday through Monday next week. Of those days, Saturday looks to have the best chance of being dry, at least at current.

Below-normal temperatures look to continue through the week, with highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with lows in the 20s to low 30s. Thursday night looks to be the coldest of the long-term with lows ranging from the mid-teens across the north, to mid 20s across the south.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 712 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

Conditions were mostly IFR or worse at TAF issuance, with just a bit of MVFR. Precipitation was ongoing most places, but the back edge was starting to make its way in from the west. It was still in the form of rain in many places in far southeast KY, but the transition to snow had made its way southeastward roughly to a line from Monticello to Paintsville.

The change to snow will continue southeastward through the state this morning, but the back edge of significant precip will be moving faster, so that the last places to see a changeover will generally see the shortest period of snow. Once significant precipitation tapers off today, there still could be some drizzle, freezing drizzle, or very light snow which lingers this afternoon, especially near the VA border. Mainly IFR or worse conditions are forecast to linger this morning, but an improvement to MVFR for most places is expected around mid day and early this afternoon, with MVFR (due to ceilings) then probably lasting through tonight. Clouds may begin to break up tonight, but confidence is not high enough to forecast improvement beyond MVFR in this aviation cycle.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106-108.