textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure bringS dry and cool early autumn weather to eastern Kentucky into early next week.

- Warmer temperatures make a comeback late next week, along with our next reasonable potential for rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 1130 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids - beefing up sky cover for much of the night in the northern parts of the area. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a large area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky this evening. This is helping to settle the winds and keep skies mostly clear. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 50s for some of the sheltered northeast valleys to the lower 70s in the open areas of the southwest. Meanwhile, amid northeast winds of 5 mph or less, dewpoints are generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 212 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

Eastern Kentucky will begin the period on the far outer fringes of a large mature low pressure system along or just offshore the Mid-Atlantic seaboard, with surface high pressure ridging extending south from a surface high in southern Canada. This system will eventually lift northeast early next week, with weak ridging building over the area. Complexity in the forecast increases significantly toward the latter half of next week as models struggle on the timing, location, and strength of the next upper low/trough that moves into the middle of the country, which will eventually bring the next chance of precipitation.

Confidence is high in the temperature trends through the long term period, with cool and dry conditions through this weekend giving way to an increasingly warmer and more humid regime as the upper flow transitions from a northerly to more southwesterly direction. By the middle of next week, highs should be returning to above normal, though to what degree is somewhat uncertain, with NBM deterministic values in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Wednesday and Thursday, which is on the lower end of the probabilistic envelope. Lows will also increase from the 40s for lows this weekend to the 50s and 60s by the second half of next week. Confidence is also low as to the timing of arrival of possible precipitation associated with the next system moving into the center of the country next week, with low chances (generally around 15 to 25 percent) introduced to the grids beginning Wednesday night and gradually increasing (to 15 to 35 percent) through the end of the long-term period Thursday night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026

With high pressure in control, valley fog has developed and this should expand in coverage during the first 6 hours of the period, before dissipating by 14Z. This will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, but is still not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will hold through the period with passing high clouds from time to time.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.