textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Quick-hitting snowfall could impact travellers on Friday. Most locations northeast of Highway 15 can expect one (locally two) inch of accumulation, with rain or a mix occurring to the southwest.

- Higher terrain near the Virginia border will see heavier snowfall totals of two to four inches through sunrise Saturday. This includes accumulation from additional snow showers Friday night.

- An arctic front late Friday evening brings isolated snow squall threat and strong wind gusts to 30+ mph.

- Cold air lingers Saturday before a major warm-up. Temperatures will soar from the 20s on Saturday to the 50s/60s by Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026

The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside of a departing system as surface high pressure builds into the area, supported by upper-level ridging over the Central Plains. However, the forecast area will initially remain under strong northwesterly flow on the subsident side of a departing trough. This flow may support isolated flurries before the column dries out, but the primary concern is the cold temperatures anticipated for Saturday. Strong CAA behind the system will severely limit diurnal heating; consequently, highs will only reach the lower 20s across the Bluegrass, with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 20s toward the southern border. CAA, radiational cooling, snowpack and clear skies will work in conjunction Saturday night to insure temperatures fall into the single digits to mid-teens.

Beginning Sunday, rising geopotential heights aloft will coincide with a shift to low-level southwesterly flow. This establishes a WAA regime, allowing temperatures to climb 10 to 15 degrees compared to Saturday. Highs on Sunday are expected to reach the upper 30s across the I-64 corridor and the mid-40s over the Cumberland Plateau. Overnight lows will be notably milder, staying in the 20s. This warming trend intensifies Monday and Tuesday as high temperatures top out in the low 50s to mid-60s by Tuesday afternoon. This warm-up is courtesy of an approaching shortwave trough from the southwest. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will sustain WAA through the early part of the week. By Tuesday afternoon, the system will be on the doorstep, and PoP will increase through Tuesday evening and remain elevated through the end of the period. Temperatures will remain mild through Wednesday before trending cooler by Thursday.

In summary, the period is highlighted by cold high pressure yielding to a significant warming trend through early next week. While temperatures will run well above seasonal averages, such a dramatic thermal swing is driven by the approach of a robust synoptic system. This feature will bring rain chances starting Tuesday afternoon or evening, persisting through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 146 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026

A mixture of MVFR and VFR conditions are expected to yield to VFR mid/high-level ceilings this afternoon/tonight as the next disturbance approaches from the west. Renewed reductions to MVFR or worse are expected on Friday as snow develops across most of the forecast area east of I-75. Winds will generally be light and variable before trending south-southwesterly at 10 kts or less on Friday morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for KYZ044- 050>052-059-060-104-106>110-112-113-119.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ088-118-120.