textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week.

- Showers/storms are possible today and tonight from a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front.

- Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 724 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026

The forecast is on track with no major changes needed. Hourly temperatures were updated using the latest observations for the initialization of the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026

The period starts Friday night with an amplified upper trough and attendant cold front traversing the central CONUS. Increasing clouds are expected Friday night with this system progressing toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will cool into upper 50s to low 60s. The cold front will cut through the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning, progressing east through the day. The cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon into the early evening, with shower and storm chances increasing over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon into the overnight before tapering off Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds and strong warm advection. Saturday night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will lower temperatures into the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20 to 25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning, especially in the valleys where decoupling of winds is most probable.

Height rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, with highs reaching the low to mid 60s, under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into lower 40s. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. Conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid 70s.

A low passing through the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. There is an isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday and Wednesday night as a result. Temperatures will still warm into the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the 12z TAF issuance, but clouds will gradually increase through the day with showers and thunderstorms likely to impact the region this afternoon into the evening. Confidence in duration, timing, and intensity of shower/storm activity is low, precluding much of the day of any significant reductions beyond MVFR in the TAFs at this time.

Southwest winds will again increase with the mixing out of the nocturnal inversion this morning, with most sites seeing prevailing winds in the 5 to 12 kts range with gusts to around 20 kts. Winds will diminish with the loss of daytime heating or with stabilization of the atmosphere from shower activity.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.