textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms bring the risk of localized heavy rain and flash flooding early this evening, and a Flood Watch continues through 10 PM, mainly south of the Mountain Parkway and east of I-75.

- Dry, cool weather settles in Thursday and last through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows an inverted trough slowly exiting to the east of the state. When combined with a passing shortwave trough overhead, this is still capable of giving southeast parts of Kentucky some excessive rainfall and flash flooding. Accordingly, the Flood Watch continues through 10 pm with most activity looking to fade to light showers after that point. Warming IR cloud tops supports this idea, as well as the latest CAMs guidance and now waning instability. Otherwise, temperatures are fairly uniform across eastern Kentucky, generally in the mid 60s - along with dewpoints - while winds are mainly from the north to northeast at 10 mph or less. Have updated the forecast primarily to extend the higher PoPs into the night in the far eastern parts of the area per the latest radar loops and CAMs consensus guidance. Did also add in the most recent obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs, FFA, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 249 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026

Overall, the long term period will be characterized by cool and quiet weather, owing to a fairly persistent midlevel ridge west of the forecast area. At the start of the period, a vertically stacked low will be located off of the North Carolina coast, with a highly amplified ridge over the central CONUS. This low will deepen as it lifts into the Northeast, blocking any eastward progression of the ridge. Eastern Kentucky will find itself on the western edge of northeastern troughing through at least the weekend, with most guidance suggesting that this system will lift far north into Canada by early next week. This will allow the ridge axis to progress eastward, with the next major system not approaching until the very end of the forecast period.

At the surface, this large scale pattern should keep weather cool and dry through the weekend. Largely northeasterly winds around a surface high over the Great Lakes will relegate dewpoints to the 40s, peaking in the mid 50s at their wettest. Even with mostly clear skies each day, highs will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. In short, it will finally feel less like summer and more like fall. Overnight, clear skies and light winds will enable efficient radiational cooling, with ridge valley splits expected to develop. MOS guidance suggests temperatures will bottom out in the low 40s in particularly sheltered valley locations on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings. Given that most guidance agrees temperatures could fall into the mid 40s overnight (even without considering terrain factors), this seems very feasible. It may be time to get your jacket out.

By early next week, temperatures will warm somewhat as the ridge expands eastward. Highs will climb into the low 80s in many locations by Tuesday, although weather will still be dry. As of now, the next rain chance looks to be Wednesday as a large scale system approaches, but the details remain fuzzy this far out.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026

Largely MVFR and IFR conditions were present to start the 00Z TAF period. There was a large batch of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms affecting locations generally southeast of the JKL office. These poor conditions are expected to last for much of the night, largely settling on IFR, along with showers at times and a few stray thunderstorms into dawn. The overall precipitation should taper off during the heart of the overnight, but and sustained improvement in conditions is not expected until later in the day, on Thursday. Away from any storms, winds will be generally around 5 kts or less from the north to northeast through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for KYZ069-080-085>088- 107>120.