textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler air arrives Sunday and Monday behind a couple of cold fronts. Patchy frost is possible in northern sheltered valleys, primarily on Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns exist Monday through at least Wednesday due to dry conditions.

- Well above-normal temperatures return late next week, along with the next chance for area-wide rainfall by Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 409 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

With the upper level trough departing our area, the long term period opens with much cooler weather; temperatures are expected to be well below average on Monday. Notably, a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out on Monday morning, associated with a secondary cold that should push south of the area by the afternoon. The main weather impact on Monday night will be frost or light freeze concerns. With dew points plummeting behind the cold front, clear skies and light winds due to high pressure to our north should support sufficient cooling for frost formation in valleys.

Tuesday will bring warm and dry weather as upper level ridging builds. Unfortunately, this will also lead to a return of elevated fire danger. High temperatures will climb closer to average for this time of year (70s) while dewpoints remain relatively low. Breezy winds (15-25 mph gusts) will also support these concerns as the pressure gradient tightens. While southwesterly winds will make a weak attempt at moisture recovery over the furthest west portion of the forecast area, it remains unclear how far east this moisture will push. Consequently, RH values are favored to approach critical thresholds across eastern Kentucky on Tuesday.

From Wednesday onward, moisture will gradually increase with southwesterly to westerly flow, eventually alleviating fire weather concerns by the end of the week. A cold front moving across the Ohio Valley will bring a slight chance of precipitation to the northern portion of our area on Wednesday. However, as this front drifts further south it will become less defined, with limited upper level support. As a result, PoPs remain low for the vast majority of the area, with no significant rainfall expected. Following the disintegration of this weak boundary, upper level ridging and warm temperatures will dominate until the next shortwave trough approaches later on Friday. A cold front associated with this upper level feature will move through the area Saturday, bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Per the LREF, the chance for at least a quarter- inch of rain from this system is medium (40-60% chance), indicating that Saturday could be our next chance for truly appreciable precipitation.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

VFR conditions generally prevailed outside of widely scattered showers at TAF issuance but gradual deterioration to MVFR is expected this evening with the passage of a cold front. Additional scattered to numerous showers could lead to locally worse conditions through early overnight. A stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either, generally before sunset and could produce strong and erratic winds. Conditions improving back to VFR are expected overnight into the early Sunday. Winds will generally be west to southwest at 8 to 14 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts ahead of the front, shifting to northwest behind the cold front this evening and slackening. Winds will become similarly gusty again during the day on Sunday as diurnal mixing increases but out of the northwest instead.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.