textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A potent cold front will bring strong wind gusts as it crosses the area late tonight through midday Sunday.

- Following the front, expect blustery conditions with gusty showers and falling temperatures on Sunday afternoon and evening.

- Another round of strong, gusty winds is expected on Tuesday afternoon as a second, but dry cold front moves through.

- Much colder air will settle in for the middle of the week, leading to the potential for frost in sheltered valleys on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 310 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

Monday, height rises are expected across the area, as breif ridging builds into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in lieu of the exiting weekend system, to the Northeast. Fall like temperatures continue across Eastern Kentucky, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s. Evening temperatures will likely cool into the low to mid 40s.

Beyond Monday, an upper level low over the Northern Plains will mature over the Upper Great Lakes, leading to a cold front developing later Tuesday morning/early afternoon, over the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley region. Model soundings show moist mid- levels, with some drying at the lower levels. Steep lapse rates should allow for good mixing resulting in breezy conditions. Winds could gust 25-30 mph during the afternoon. While shower chances are low, odds are this will be a dry cold front, due to the drier air present at the surface. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 60s, under partly cloudy skies, and relatively light southwest winds. Clearing skies and light winds will allow for valley locations to decouple heading into the evening. Valley locations could dip into the mid to upper 30s with ridges staying in the lower 40s. Patchy areas of frost could develop in the coldest locations.

Wednesday and Thursday the are remains in quasi-zonal flow. Conditions will be similar each day, with afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s, with westerly winds. Winds may be slightly breezier Wednesday as the area is still somewhat under the influence of an upper low to the north. Gusts 20-25 mph are possible. At night, light winds and clear skies allow for good radiational cooling. Lows in the lower to mid 30s each night have the formation of frost becoming increasingly likely Wednesday, and Thursday nights.

Friday and Saturday, another system is modeled to come out of the Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This is expected to bring increasing clouds during Friday, and perhaps the next chance of showers on Saturday. Temperatures generally stay in the mid to upper 60s during the afternoons and in the mid 40s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025

VFR conditions at TAF issuance will continue through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. However, a strong jet moving in aloft will lead to a period of LLWS overnight. Those winds should begin mixing down to the surface more readily late in the night as virga and patchy light rain arrive from the west. Southwesterly wind gusts are expected to generally peak in the 25 to 35 KT range, strongest near/west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. The winds should temporarily diminish mid-to-late Sunday morning as showers associated with the front saturate and stabilize the lowest levels of the atmosphere. This saturation will also lead to ceiling restrictions for most of the area by the end of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-104-106-108-111.