textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Some light snow accumulations are possible into New Years morning, with the best chances found along and northeast of a line from Flemingsburg to West Liberty to Prestonsburg to Elkhorn City.

- A passing storm system to our south will bring a chance of mainly rain to portions of eastern Kentucky Friday into Saturday. - Temperatures will average a bit below normal through this weekend and then trend above normal next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1120 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a touch up of the PoPs through the rest of the night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure off to the northeast of Kentucky with a cold front settling south toward eastern parts of the state for late tonight. Ahead of this, plenty of mid and high level clouds are streaming over the area along with southwest to west winds of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts to the northeast. Currently, temperatures vary from the mid and upper 30s north to the low 40s south. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 358 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025

A deep upper level low will start out over Hudson Bay on Friday, with elongated cyclonic flow extending southeast through the northeastern portion of the CONUS. Ridging will be aligned over the West. A short wave will move over the Rockies and continue to deepen as it drops southeast across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley Friday night. A reflective surface low will track into the Deep South by Saturday, with precipitation spreading northward through the Tennessee Valley.

Models have waffled in previous days in regards to the northern extent of the moisture field, particularly the ECMWF. 12z blends are further north with measurable PoPs once again. Consequently, the temperatures have also increased with the expansion of the moisture, which makes sense, given the associated warm air advection. As such, still believe that this will mainly be just plain rain. At the same time, model time height forecasts reveal very little moisture below 700 mb on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield, so it will most likely be a tighter cutoff to the measurable precipitation than currently reflected in the forecast.

Drier weather returns Saturday night and continues to generally hold on through Tuesday, as only weak short waves pass by to our north in progressive flow. The next system brings a return of rain chances by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Agreement on the timing is not good this far out, but confidence continues to increase on another surge of above normal temperatures next week, as 500 mb heights generally rise, and more persistent low level return flow ensues. Highs will generally be in the 50s each day after Sunday. Lows will moderate from the 20s on Monday, to the 40s by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025

Conditions are currently VFR at all but KSYM, however a passing weather system, and its southern moving cold front brings lowering CIGs into MVFR, and briefly lower, along with chances of light snow, mainly for just the KSYM and KSJS terminals. Conditions will then start to improve later Thursday with CIGs returning to VFR by evening. Winds will be generally from the southwest to west at 5 to 10 kts through the majority of the night. Look for winds to become more northwesterly post-frontal heading into the pre-dawn hours of Thursday then staying that way through the day.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.