textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will affect the area today as a slow- moving cold front arrives. A few storms could produce isolated strong winds and localized flash flooding.

- The heat wave breaks early this week, with daily highs returning to near-normal levels in the mid to upper 80s alongside daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was to add in just a touch of terrain details each night along with some river valley fog. Nearby troughing aloft still looks to keep things unsettled through the period - with highest PoPs noted for late in the work week. This is when the core of any mid-level energy passes through eastern Kentucky along with a southward dropping sfc boundary through the start of the weekend enhancing the PoPs synoptically.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The models are in general agreement with the long wave pattern becoming less amplified over the CONUS through mid-week, before amplifying once again into next weekend. Even smaller scale features start out fairly well agreed upon by the models, but as is usually the case, this breaks down with time. Fortunately, a typical summer-time pattern will roll on across eastern Kentucky, although with more seasonable temperatures in place, along with the threat of daily diurnally-driven convection.

A positively-tilted trough will be aligned from New England through the Ohio Valley and across the middle/lower Mississippi Valley. A closed low will be embedded within this trough, in the vicinity of Arkansas. The ECMWF has had this feature for several model runs, with the GFS more recently latching onto it. At the surface, broad low pressure will be positioned across the Ohio/West Virginia border, with a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped southwest through eastern Kentucky. PoPs will generally peak on Tuesday across the area, given the proximity of the aforementioned features, with scattered to numerous convection forecast to develop. As the trough and surface front weaken mid-week, PoPs will lessen across the area, with a general minimum forecast by Thursday.

The next surge of moisture and higher PWAT air will move in Thursday night into Friday, as troughing reestablishes itself over the Ohio Valley, with a more defined surface front pushing southeast towards the Commonwealth. Models show more disagreement with the timing and amplitude of these features, but expect a general increase in PoPs late Thursday night and especially Friday. Some higher efficient rainers will be possible during this period. The boundary will gradually exit to our south through this weekend, although deeper moisture does seem to be diminishing more decisively with time per the LREF climatological PWATs. As such, the blended guidance PoPs may be a bit generous. Temperatures will be averaging closer to seasonable normals through the end of the week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, and lows mainly in the 65 to 70 degree range.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are occurring across all TAF sites with this issuance as surface high pressure, though weak, remains in control but some valley fog has crept into the SYM, IOB, and SME terminals. This should all clear out by 13Z then shower and storm chances return in earnest early this afternoon bringing the potential for brief categorical reductions and gusty/erratic outflow winds. Later, following the storm threat we may see lowering CIGs as a weak cold front settles into the area after 06Z. Outside of the convection, winds will generally be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.