textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Thu. A strong cold front will then bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms on Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front for the weekend, bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Friday and Saturday nights.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

As a surface low progresses away from the Great Lakes and into Northern Quebec, a trailing cold front will extend southwest from the Great Lakes, through the Ohio Valley. This cold front is expected to move into the Commonwealth from the northwest sometime early Friday morning. With stern southwesterly winds advecting in warm air through the night, temperatures may stay elevated in the upper 50s to mid 60s ahead of the approaching cold front.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely through Friday moving across the area from northwest to southeast, with colder and drier air working into the region behind the front. While not as strong as some of the previous cold fronts Eastern Kentucky has seen, this one will still drop temperatures through the morning and afternoon. High temperatures in the mid to upper 60s will likely occur early in the morning. By 18Z (2 PM EDT), temperatures may range from the upper 40s to upper 60s from north to south.

Friday evening into Saturday, some isolated to scattered rain-snow showers are possible along the VA/TN/KY border before high pressure begins to build back into the region. Skies will clear out fairly quickly overnight, allowing for temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. Widespread frost will be likely with temperatures this cold under light winds and somewhat clear skies. Winds remain out of the north through Saturday, continuing to usher in drier air. By Saturday morning, high pressure will be located somewhere in the Ozarks, crossing the Ohio Valley through the day. Northerly winds continue through Saturday before becoming northeasterly in the evening. Dew points in the teens with RH values in the 20s are forecasted, however, models tend to struggle with this type of setup. Dew points were blended with the 10th percentile of the NBM. Fire weather conditions are elevated Saturday with critical RH values. However winds will remain light and northerly. Temperatures generally remain in the 50s across the area. Saturday night, light and variable winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to fall near the freezing mark of 32. Patchy areas of frost may be possible with the above listed conditions.

Overall, a quiet Sunday is expected with dry conditions and light southerly winds. Temperatures look to warm into the 60s for most of the areas under a mix of sun and clouds. With light southerly winds and somewhat clear skies ahead of another disturbance some ridge- valley splits in temperatures could be observed, however current conditions (pressure gradient of 4-5 mb) over the area may lean towards valleys staying mixed. With no ridge-valley splits, temperatures are forecasted to range from the mid to upper 40s. If however some ridge-valley splits were to be realized, some valleys could get into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Southerly flow continues across Eastern Kentucky through Wednesday next week leading to WAA and temperatures warming into the low 70s on Monday, mid to upper 70s on Tuesday, and upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday of next week. A few weather disturbances may move across the area in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe, with maybe a shower or two, though model agreement is still wide. The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook for temperatures have Eastern Kentucky in a 80-90% probability of above normal conditions, while the 8-14 day precipitation outlook has most of the area under a 33-40% chance of above normal (leaning above normal) precipitation.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, with thin upper clouds being replaced by a lower to middle cloud deck approaching from the west late tonight into the post-dawn hours associated with a cluster of showers and possible thunderstorms. This activity will be more likely to impact northern terminals than southern terminals, and could bring reductions into the MVFR category for a brief time. Additionally, a warm front will lift northeast across the area late tonight bringing some LLWS. Where breezy conditions are indicated at the surface tonight but no mention of LLWS, be advised that if winds decouple then LLWS will occur. Otherwise, southwest winds between 5 and 10 kts with gusts to around 15 kts at times will continue into the overnight, with winds becoming stronger toward the end of the TAF period as a cold front approaches.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.