textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather is expected through Tuesday night.

- Gusty southwesterly winds between 30 and 40 mph are likely on Wednesday.

- The pattern remains active through the end of the work week, although confidence remains low in each passing system's precipitation type forecast.

- A much colder airmass is forecast to move into the region for the weekend, with widespread low temperatures in the teens likely.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 447 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025

Broader troughing, with embedded progressive short wave troughs, will be the story aloft generally east of the Rockies through the rest of the week. The pattern will be more amplified on the front end of the period. While the model agreement is good regarding the long wave pattern, timing of the smaller scale features and sensible weather details continue to be challenging to predict with confidence. As such, have stuck closer to the blended guidance for precipitation chances. Did make some minor temperature adjustments for a few periods, mainly to incorporate ridge/valley temperature differences, as well as to play up more diurnally-limited temperature regimes, where confidence was a bit higher regarding the cloudier and colder spells.

We start out in the middle of the week, with gusty southwest winds. The 12z ensemble probabilities have come down just a bit for seeing 40 mph gusts on the GFS compared to the 00z run. As such, have maintained continuity with the previous forecast, sticking with the 90th percentile blended guidance from later in the morning through the early afternoon hours, when wind gusts will peak in the 30 to 40 mph range. Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Mainly rain will overspread the area from northwest to southeast during the day, as a frontal system traverses southeast from the Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Some upslope snow will follow Wednesday night into early Thursday, with precipitation chances lingering in the forecast from Thursday night through Friday night, generally favoring locations east of I-75. Will continue to keep precipitation types generalized to rain and/or snow, as temperature profiles remain low confidence. A reinforcement of colder air follows for this weekend, although spread remains large within the ensemble envelope. Overnight lows in the teens look probable for most valleys, especially Sunday night, with the surface high in closer proximity. Highs will retreat to the 30s this weekend, before recovering above 40 by early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1257 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

A low MVFR to high IFR ceiling is drifting back north of the Mountain Parkway early this morning. This cloud deck will likely overspread the remainder of the forecast area including SYM over the next few hours. The ceiling is expected to begin breaking up toward/after sunrise allowing for the return of VFR conditions area wide. Winds will be light and variable through 12Z and then become southwest and increase to the 5 to 12KT range on average for the afternoon hours, remaining gusty or even increasing Tuesday night. Winds aloft will increase late in the period. Thus LLWS wind shear may become a threat during the last ~6 hours of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.