textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-record warmth is expected through Sunday, with highs generally in the 60s and peak values potentially reaching/exceeding 70 degrees in many locations.

- Multiple rounds of showers will impact the region into Friday night, though Saturday should be mostly dry.

- A sharp cold front will cross the area late Sunday night to early Monday, with temperatures plummeting to well below freezing by Monday evening.

- Southwest winds will gust as high as 25 to mph on Friday, with stronger gusts greater than 30 mph possible with Sunday night's frontal passage.

UPDATE

Issued at 1125 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. Did also add in a touch of the latest CAMs for the PoPs though dawn and beefed up the areas of dense fog in the western portion of the Cumberland Valley. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows a warm front arcing through far eastern Kentucky. This remains a focus point for rain showers this evening and through the night. It also marks a separation between warm temperatures to the southwest and somewhat cooler conditions to the east. Specifically, readings are running from the mid 50s northeast to the 60s in the southwest. Meanwhile, amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. Did also include the radar and CAMs guidance through this evening and the rest of the night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 355 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025

Well above normal temperatures continue as the long-term period opens Saturday morning, but a major pattern change looms as the calendar closes in on the last days of 2025. The 25/12z model suite analysis beginning Saturday morning shows 500 hPa ridging in place aloft with an axis extending from the Gulf northward through the Western Great Lakes. Well upstream, two pieces of energy/troughing are noted: the first over the Great Basin/ California and a more potent trough digging from British Columbia into the Northern US Rockies. At the surface, a stalling cold frontal boundary will be situated over/near the Cumberland River Valley, extending back west and north to multi-centered low pressure area over the Northern/Central High Plains. Over Kentucky, the aforementioned front is relatively shallow, with the layer of colder air mainly filtering in from the north between the surface and ~900mb.

The drier air mass and rising heights aloft under the 500hPa ridge axis will ensure a quiet and rather calm Saturday over Eastern Kentucky Coalfields with a notable temperature gradient (LREF mean 925 hPa temperatures range from 8 to 14C, northeast to southwest during the afternoon). Meanwhile, surface low pressure, supported by the digging trough over the Northern Rockies, initially appears to predominate and track toward northern Minnesota during the day. However, that system is quickly replaced by a much more consequential and rapidly intensifying low, emerging out of eastern Colorado late in the day on Saturday and racing northeastward to over the Great Lakes by Sunday evening. In the process, this system's warm conveyor belt jet will send the stalled boundary surging back north as a warm front on Sunday morning. Some elevated convection is possible along the warm front/nose of the developing jet during the day on Sunday. Warm, moist southwesterly return flow behind the warm front will buoy 925 hPa temperatures back to 15-16C area-wide (as per the LREF mean) by later in the day. If good mixing up to 925 hPa is realized, this would place Sunday's record high temperatures at both KJKL and KLOZ in jeopardy (see Climate AFD).

Our focus on Sunday night will then turn to the low pressure system's trailing cold front and the frigid arctic air rushing in on its heels. Aside from a sudden drop in temperatures on the magnitude of 45 to 50F over a 24 to 36 hour period, GFS BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum transfer values of 30-35+ kts from late Sunday into early Monday should be supportive of a period of strong winds potentially nearing or exceeding advisory criteria (this potential is corroborated by a number of the individual LREF ensemble members). Additionally, some guidance shows a few tens to a few hundreds of J/kg of MUCAPE with high shear; so, strongly forced low-topped convection or perhaps even a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with the arctic cold front's passage (most likely between 06Z and 15Z on Monday). Behind the front, temperatures dive, dropping to -10 to -11C at 925 hPa in the LREF mean by 12Z Tuesday. Some guidance still shows a lake-enhanced moisture streamer developing off of Lake Michigan by Monday night, but low- level flow remains westerly enough to divert most of the plume into West Virginia--something to at least keep an eye on if the low-level flow turned more northerly. There is still disagreement in the models as to how deep the trough actually becomes over the eastern half of the continent mid-week, though the overall mean guidance would support a fairly rapid easing of the harshest chill with LREF mean 925 hPa temperatures approaching 0C by 00z Thursday.

In sensible weather terms, well above normal to near record warmth will prevail through Sunday (ECMWF EFI values of 0.5 to 0.8 indicate unusual to highly unusual warmth both day and night) before temperatures tumble well below normal early next week. For Saturday, there will be a notable north-south temperature gradient with highs north of the Mountain Parkway close to 60F, while thermometers warm to the vicinity of 70F in the deeper valleys of the Cumberland River Basin under partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures dip back into the mid 40s to mid 50s on Saturday night before clouds and a chance of showers/thunderstorms return for Sunday. Temperatures surging through the 60s and into the lower 70s can be expected in most locations south of the Mountain Parkway, but staying mainly in the upper 60s farther north. Increasingly gusty winds late Sunday will herald the return of gusty showers and the possibility of a thunderstorm late Sunday night/early Monday. Temperatures then tumble throughout the day on Monday, switching any lingering rain showers over to a few flurries. No impactful accumulations are expected, but temperatures will still fall to near 20F by late Monday night. Expect high temperatures struggling to reach the freezing mark on Tuesday, followed by a slow moderation back towards normal for Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025

Mainly IFR or lower conditions prevail across the TAF sites with this issuance. Showers are found roughly along a stalled boundary and these will gradually shift southward while low CIGs, associated with the front, will send terminals to IFR or lower for the bulk of the rest of the night. No significant improvements are expected through the aviation forecast cycle as the boundary stays nearly stationary keeping showers and low CIGs in place over the area. Winds will be light and variable for much of the period; however, they do increase after 12Z/Friday as a boundary more effectively crosses the area. Sustained southerly winds around 10 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots can't be ruled out through the rest of the period after mid morning, Friday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 355 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025

Record high maximums and minimums at JKL on Friday (12/26) are 70F (2016) and 55F (2015); on Sunday (12/28), 71 (1984) and 56 (1996).

Record high maximums and minimums at LOZ for Friday (12/26) are 71 (2015) and 56 (1982); on Sunday (12/28), 72 (1984/2015) and 53 (1954/2024).

The greatest potential for record-setting warmth is on Sunday afternoon/evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.