textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze conditions are anticipated early this morning, especially in the valleys of eastern and southeastern Kentucky. - Frost is possible again tonight and Tuesday night, primarily in the valley locations.

- Expect near-normal temperatures throughout the work week, with mostly clear skies and overnight ridge-valley temperature splits likely to continue for at least next weekend.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026

The forecast remains on track, with models and ensembles in good agreement through the work week. Broad upper-level ridging over the central CONUS and robust surface high pressure south of James Bay will maintain tranquil weather across eastern Kentucky. Expect rain-free days, mostly clear skies, and a gradual day-to-day moderating trend in temperatures. Toward next weekend, an upper-level trough progressing east across Canada may begin to suppress the ridge and displace the surface high eastward.

Previous Discussion...

The long-term 18/12Z model suite beginning Tuesday morning is in good agreement, showing broad upper-level ridging (the dominant controlling weather feature for the long term) over the heart of the CONUS with its ridge axis roughly aligned with the Mississippi River. This continues to support robust surface high pressure sprawling across much of eastern North America, centered on a roughly 1035 mb high situated south of James Bay. North to northeasterly low-level flow will continue to filter down the Appalachians along the eastern side of the high through the new work week. Uncertainty increases next weekend regarding the ridges continued maintenance as an upper-level trough may eject eastward from the Pacific and break it down, though a slim majority of the 00Z LREF members still favor the ridge holding firm into the last week of October.

In sensible terms, this persistent surface ridging and northerly to easterly flow will keep fair and seasonably cool weather across all of eastern Kentucky with only a slow moderating trend. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s, moderating into the upper 60s to mid 70s by Sunday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows start off in the mid 30s to lower 40s on Tuesday night and only moderate slightly to the upper 30s to mid 40s by the weekend. Lingering patchy frost is probable Tuesday night into early Wednesday for the sheltered valleys, and additional isolated patchy frost cannot be entirely ruled out later in the week in the coldest sheltered hollows. Otherwise, at least patchy fog is likely along the mainstem rivers and larger tributaries on most nights.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2026

Surface and upper level riding will remain in place across the region through the period. This will lead to light winds and very few if any clouds. River valley fog, dense in some areas, is likely to linger as late as 14Z. This will not affect the TAF sites with any visibility reductions.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050-051- 058-059-068-079-083-084.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ052-060-069- 080-085>088-104-106>120.