textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warm front will usher in a milder and more humid air mass into the region later today, and this mild and more moist airmass should linger through the week. - Multiple weather systems should bring rain or showers at times beginning today and extending into Saturday.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms across western sections of eastern KY from late this afternoon into this evening. Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats should a severe storm occur.

UPDATE

Issued at 1110 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent observations and radar trends. For the next few hours, this led to some downward adjustments in for northern and east sections for hourly temperatures and dewpoints.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

Update is out with modifications to PoPs mostly, and some edits to account for the latest observed temperatures.

UPDATE Issued at 510 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

Pre-dawn update is out with an update to PoPs accounting for latest radar imagery and surface observations. Hourly temperatures were also updated. Sub-freezing temperatures in the sheltered valleys appear to be rising to or just above freezing as light rain moves over the area. Will therefore continue to monitor closely but withhold issuing any kind of Special Weather Statement or other statement for potential isolated trace amounts of freezing rain over the next few hours in our northeastern counties.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 250 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

A stationary front remains in the vicinity under active zonal flow through the remainder of the week. A large complex upper low over the Southwest CONUS and northwestern Mexico will eject a southern-stream disturbance northeast through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys Thursday through Friday while a northern stream upper low/trough moves east across the Great Lakes. This looks to bring active unsettled weather with periods of rain/showers and some thunderstorms to the region from Thursday and lasting into Saturday, ending with the passage of an upper disturbance and likely weak cold front later Saturday. Cooler and drier air then builds into the region for the remainder of the weekend into Monday of next week as northern stream west- northwesterly mid-level flow with surface high pressure prevails.

Temperatures will become increasingly milder with the southwesterly mid-level flow across the region for the second half of this week, with temperatures dipping back closer to normal behind the cold frontal passage this weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 619 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

A warm front will approach and then move across the area through this evening before moving south as a weak cold front toward the end of the TAF period late tonight. An initial round of showers is already beginning to move across the area, with cloud bases remaining generally above 5 kft. CIGS are forecast to remain VFR but can't rule out reductions into MVFR as the warm front and cold front move through the area later today, especially after 21z, and lasting through the evening. Lastly, winds will be mostly light and variable but sustained winds around 7 to 10 knots will exist post- warm frontal passage. Also, winds with thunderstorms can be gusty and erratic.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.