textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will inch higher today, with humidity also climbing a bit into Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cold front moving into the area late in the week will give us our next expectation of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday or Thursday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 609 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

The models are in generally good agreement for the majority of the extended portion of the forecast. Ridging starts out over the southeastern CONUS as well as the Desert Southwest, while faster and progressive flow dominates across the northern half of the CONUS. A notable short wave trough will be aligned from the upper Great Lakes through the middle Mississippi Valley. This feature will cruise through the Ohio Valley and eventually New England by Friday. Troughing will be maintained across the Mississippi Valley Friday into Saturday, as additional short wave energy moves along the north central CONUS. Meanwhile, a deeper upper level low will propagate onshore over the Pacific Northwest. As this feature swings east, more prominent ridging will take hold downstream across the southeastern CONUS late this weekend and into early next week.

Sensible weather will feature an active start across eastern Kentucky on Thursday night, with a frontal boundary already in the area and convection likely ongoing. The highest probabilities will occur north of KY-80, with perhaps a slightly slower trend seen in the latest model guidance. PWATs will peak near 2", along with the surface boundary aligning more parallel with the mid and upper level flow. As such, some locally heavy rainers remain a possibility. As instability wanes and the overall forcing diminish, convective coverage should gradually lessen overnight Thursday night.

This frontal boundary will linger across our southern locales on Friday, with a resurgence of likely PoPs seen generally along and southeast of KY-80. Highs will retreat closer to normal temporarily. We will still be under the influence of weaker troughing aloft on Saturday. Enough moisture will linger to allow for additional diurnally driven convection. Similar to Friday, higher PoPs will be favored across our southeast. From Sunday through Tuesday, ridging will be building in aloft, keeping convective coverage more limited. Unfortunately, this will also mean heat and humidity.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT WED SEP 9 2026

Fog is apparent in valleys on satellite imagery at TAF issuance, and will continue to expand through sunrise, and then dissipate. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, but is unlikely to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through at least early Wednesday evening. Winds will begin to pick up ahead of a cold front on Wednesday, with gusts of 15-20 kts expected in the northwest portion of the forecast area during the day. There is also a potential for showers/thunderstorms to arrive in the northwest portion of the JKL forecast area near the end of the period, and this is addressed with a PROB30 group at KIOB and KSYM.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.