textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the area before frontal passage later today.

- Active weather continues into next week, with a strong cold front expected to cross the Commonwealth by mid-week.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will move into the region for the start of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 432 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

The long-term forecast period begins with the continued influence of surface high pressure as an upper-level ridge begins to build across the southern Plains. Concurrently, an upper-level trough featuring an embedded jet streak to the northeast will help to drive a dry cold front through the CWA Sunday night into Monday. This moisture- starved cold front is expected to pass without significant weather impacts, as surface high pressure remains the dominant feature into early next week. During this same timeframe, a progressive upper- level shortwave trough will track northeastward from the Four Corners region toward the Central Plains by early Monday morning. The CWA is forecast to remain dry for Monday; however, as the associated surface low-pressure system continues its eastward track, increasing chances for showers will arrive late Monday night into early Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will then be present from the time of the frontal arrival on Tuesday through the subsequent cold frontal passage late Wednesday night. A cold surface high-pressure system will subsequently build back into the region for Thanksgiving Day and remain overhead through Black Friday.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a midweek surface low- pressure system that becomes situated between two centers of high pressure. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant and seasonal up until Thursday, when the cold front ushers in a significantly colder air mass for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Overnight low temperatures will follow this same trend before bottoming out in the 20s for the mornings of Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

Initial condition near TAF issuance time were MVFR over most of the area (mainly due to ceilings), but IFR was more prevalent near and north of I-64. An area of showers was just north of I-64 and gradually progressing southeastward. The showers will work there way through the rest of the JKL forecast area overnight. A few thunderstorm can't be ruled out, but the probability at any given location fairly low. Expecting a deterioration to largely IFR conditions following the showers. This lasts into the day on Saturday, with eventual improvement to MVFR. Probably even some VFR conditions try to arrive from the northwest toward the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.