textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight for Fleming County. A more widespread and impactful frost or freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning across much of eastern Kentucky, where a Freeze Watch has been issued.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will persist through much of the work week due to continued dry conditions.

- Temperatures will quickly rebound starting Tuesday, becoming well above normal with highs reaching the 80s by Thursday.

- A weak front brings a slight chance of rain to northern areas on Wednesday, but the next significant chance for widespread, beneficial rainfall arrives late Friday into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure south of the area in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky as another cold front, mostly dry, drops into the CWA from the north. This will sneak some possible sprinkles into this part of the state this evening and early overnight along with a passing deck of mid level clouds. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Meanwhile, amid northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with some lingering higher gusts, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones, SPS, and NPWs.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

Overall guidance shows reasonable agreement for the first part of the long term period. The period begins with a return of above normal temperatures, as high pressure of the east provides return flow across the Ohio Valley. Tuesday will feature mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 70s. Most of the guidance does show a weak cold front trying to make it southward toward Kentucky by Wednesday. However, strengthening mid-level riding and weak moisture return will make this feature overall lack luster. Even so the NBM does show enough signal for a few showers (chance of rain 15-40 percent) and perhaps a rumble of thunder mainly along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Then drier and warm weather return to the area Thursday, with afternoon highs topping out into the lower 80s.

By the end of the week and going into next weekend there is good signal for the ridging to break down. We will see another cold front approach the Ohio Valley by Friday. The front will however eventually stall out around the Ohio Valley. This is where guidance does diverge on the synoptic pattern and leads to more uncertainty. Even so, the pattern does shift to a more active one with quasi- zonal mid-level flow. Right now the best chance of rain is Friday night into Saturday where chance of rain will generally be in the 50- 60 percent chance range, which these lower PoP numbers show some of the aforementioned uncertainty. The mean of the guidance would suggest rainfall amounts of around three quarters of an inch or less from Friday night into Sunday for most locations. Hopefully this will provide at least some relieve to the ongoing weather issues, but the lack of better upper level support keeps us from the higher rainfall amounts desired right now.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

VFR conditions were observed at 00Z TAF issuance and will prevail through the forecast period. Lingering shallow cu at around 8 to 10 kft AGL will dissipate by mid evening following the loss of diurnal heating. A moisture-starved cold front drops in from the north tonight with a period of mid-level cloud cover and the possibility of a sprinkle or very light rain shower but not worthy of including in the TAFs.

Winds will be westerly at 8 to 14 kts early. Winds slacken tonight and become variable with the front overnight before turning northerly around 5 kts Monday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ044.

Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for KYZ052-060-069-086>088-104-106>120.