textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front approaches the area from the north early tomorrow morning, but stalls out across Southern Kentucky tomorrow. This allows additional storms to produce heavy rain in the Cumberland River Basin tomorrow.

- A more significant cold front could produce multiple rounds of thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Those storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and excessive rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 1218 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

Although afternoon convection has been long died out, additional activity ahead of the front is expanding from around the Ohio River southward toward the JKL forecast area. Models have not handled this well. The HRRR at least acknowledges it, but suggests that it could largely slide by just to our northeast. Have updated with a model blend, but there's not a a lot of confidence in the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 353 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026

As high pressure tries to build into the area Monday an upper level low will dig into the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Showers or storms are possible from Irvine to Jackson to Pikeville and areas south, with chances increasing along the TN/KY border, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds can be expected with dry conditions and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Monday evening, temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 60s to near 70.

Tuesday, the upper level low will continue across the Great Lakes as the systems cold front will extend southwest through the Ohio Valley into the Central Plains. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. Ahead of the cold front model PWAT ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with dew points in the low 70s and temperatures in the upper 80s will all combine for hot and muggy conditions. A 30-45 kt LLJ combined with 2500-3500 MUCAPE, 0- 3km SRH ranging between 150-200 m2/s2, and DCAPE 700-900 J/kg suggests severe weather is possible Tuesday afternoon. As such the SPC has put areas north of the Hal Rogers/ Kentucky Highway 80 corridor in a Day 5 Slight Risk for severe weather, highlighting at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential. Temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday the cold front should be southwest of the forecast area, however, isolated to scattered storms are possible across the Big Sandy and including the southern parts of the Licking and Cumberland River Basins. Otherwise, decreasing clouds through the day, with temperatures cooler, in the upper 70s to low 80s, under northwest winds. Cooler air continues to work in, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night.

While Thursday and Friday will remain dry under quasi-sonal flow, the next shortwave looks to come out of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest introducing shower and storms chances again for next weekend. Temperatures Thursday will be cool in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with temperatures cooling into the upper 50s to low 60s at night. Temperatures Friday and Saturday average out in the mid 80s, with temperatures cooling into the mid 60s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

A few areas of convection lingered across parts of central and eastern KY at issuance time with reduction mainly to MVFR. However, a cold front slowly approaching from the north may bring additional showers/thunderstorms during the first 6 hours of the period. Forecast confidence is not very high on any of the TAF sites being affected by SHRA or thunder so have generally covered this potential with PROB30 groups. As the front nears, nearer to 12Z, MVFR to IFR reductions in low clouds are possible for a few hours, before cloud bases lift with daytime heating. Around 16Z and after, prevailing VFR returns for most locations. This should be accompanied by a potential for renewed shower/thunderstorm development from near KJKL to KSJS and points south. Reductions to MVFR to IFR if not briefly lower are anticipated within this. By 00Z, the convection should wane, with some clearing late in the period that could be conducive for fog formation in many locations prior to 06Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.