textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent through at least this morning increasingly favoring southern Kentucky where heavy rain may lead to additional flash flooding.

- Much lower probabilities for showers and storms will be in place during most of the upcoming work week.

- Heat and humidity will become oppressive during the new week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1226 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

The previously mentioned area of showers and thunderstorms has passed progressively over the forecast area while also weakening. The progressive nature of the rainfall as well as the more southerly placement of the heavier elements (compared to earlier yesterday) has limited any additional hydro issues thus far. CAM guidance still favors a corridor of NW-SE training convection setting up over the next couple of hours from the Louisville, KY vicinity through the Lake Cumberland area and into northeast Tennessee. Those with interests vulnerable to flooding in the Lake Cumberland area are encouraged to monitor for potential flood products overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 900 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

The next area of showers and thunderstorms, associated with an MCV, is approaching from Central Kentucky. The primary concern with this activity will be the threat for flash flooding from training thunderstorms, especially in the Moderate Risk ERO (Level 3 of 4) area near Lake Cumberland, as the atmospheric profile remains primed for intense rainfall rates. With time the convection may tend to sink into Tennessee but the temporal details are uncertain due to CAM discrepancies. Of additional concern will be the low end threat for isolated severe thunderstorms, primarily in the Lake Cumberland vicinity where convection is most favored to be surface-based with the greatest instability. The main severe hazard would be strong to damaging wind gusts; however, a brief isolated spinup tornado is not completely outside the realm of possibility near Lake Cumberland.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 353 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026

The extended period opens Monday morning with the area transitioning from a fairly active pattern, into a quiet yet hot one through next week. Analyzing modeled 500-mb heights, high pressure is positioned over the Tennessee Valley, with the ridge axis extending further north, through the Upper Great Lakes and into Southern Ontario. Farther upstream to the west, a large scale trough positioned over the Great Basin, features upper level disturbance over the Northern Rockies.

Across Eastern Kentucky, isolated to scattered storm activity may last through Monday afternoon, as a stationary front just north of the forecast area, retrogrades back west as a cold front from being on the lee side of the ridge axis. These generally remain under a 25% of occurrence, located in the Upper Cumberland or southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins. With high pressure near or over Kentucky, storm chances remain very isolated Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered storm chances return towards the end of the week (Thursday and beyond), with a shortwave modeled to eject out of the western trough towards the Ohio Valley. The result will be the ridge flattening, leaving Eastern Kentucky more susceptible to additional storm activity. The return of active weather looks plausible heading into the nations 250th anniversary of independence.

With abundant clearing, light winds, and little forcing across the area, patchy areas of river valley fog is expected to develop Monday evening.

Temperatures will generally warm into the low to mid 90s during the afternoons and cool into the upper 60s to lower 70s at night through the extended period. Models depict dewpoints remaining elevated in the upper 60s to mid 70s next week, leading to hot and muggy conditions. Heat indices of 100-105F remain possible Monday trough Friday next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

In general VFR conditions are ongoing at the start of the TAF period, as the latest cluster of showers and thunderstorms is exiting to the east of most TAF terminals with additional near term development favoring points to the south of our TAF sites. However, many CAMs insist a subsequent round of convection could impact the area - primarily along and west of I-75 - into dawn and perhaps beyond. This would bring MVFR or worse conditions through much of the morning, especially for airports south of the Mountain Parkway. Gradual improvement in the conditions are expected during the day, though shower and thunderstorm chances will linger, especially closer to the KY/TN border and KY/VA border. Winds, away from any storm, will be light at less than 10 kts from the southwest for the duration of the aviation forecast period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for KYZ058-068-069-079- 080-083>088-107>120.