textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures will last into the weekend, with milder readings then forecast to return early next week.

- There is a potential for a soaking rain during the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure working into the area from the west. This is starting to settle the northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with occasional higher gusts while keeping skies mostly clear - marred only by some high clouds from time to time. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 40s for most of the area. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 239 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026

After working the midnight shift this past weekend and seeing the models for this coming weekend not only being out to lunch, but at two separate restaurants...it is exciting report that they have both reconciled, changed courses, and picked a new restaurant to eat at together. There are still a few disagreements (kinks to work out), but overall the pattern is much better in agreement, and also completely different from what either model looked like just 4 days ago.

The period starts off Friday morning with high pressure in place across The Commonwealth and much of the Ohio Valley. This high pressure will persist well into Saturday, keeping eastern Kentucky dry. Temperatures will also be on the rise from Friday to Saturday, both due to continued airmass modification, and the introduction of return southerly flow on Saturday as the high pressure system starts to shift eastward.

Meanwhile, by Saturday afternoon, a strong shortwave will be present across the Southern Plains, continuing to strengthen into a closed upper level low as it shifts eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday morning. A strong surface low will accompany this upper level system, with southerly winds ahead of the low able to feed deep amounts of Gulf moisture into the low, mid, and high levels. Despite our location well north of this system on Saturday night into Sunday, enough moisture will advect north that much of the entire state should see precipitation starting Saturday night. Again, there are still some differences in the models, with the GFS being much more robust on the QPF amounts. That being said, the latest track has ramped up QPF across KY even for the ECMWF as well. Storm Total Snowfall has increased by several tenths to almost a half of an inch in some locations compared to that of the last forecast package overnight.

The low will continue on the ENE track, quickly crossing the Deep South on Sunday, and exiting out of the Carolinas into the Atlantic Ocean Sunday night into Monday. The ECMWF is about 12 hours faster on this exiting track than the GFS, however, both models show precipitation exiting the CWA by Sunday evening (ECWMF)/first half of Sunday night (GFS). This too should begin to come into better agreement as we get closer, given that it's still Day 6 at this point.

Once it does exit, both the ECWMF and GFS agree that high pressure and rising heights will take hold once more, persisting through the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures will begin to modify warmer once again as well, though overall there won't be too much swing throughout the extended, since the low and frontal boundaries never actually pass through the state.

Expect generally 50s to low 60s each afternoon from Friday through Monday, then modifying warmer into the low to mid 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday. Overnight lows will show a bit more variation, starting off coldest Friday night with clear skies and light winds - generally in the 20s, then moderating to the upper 30s and low 40s for the weekend as the system moves through with cloud cover and precipitation. They too will then begin to moderate warmer at the end of the forecast period. All this to say, temperatures throughout the extended, specifically when the precipitation is moving through, will remain well above freezing (both during the day and overnight)- so rainfall is the only precipitation type expected. Furthermore, it's not quite warm enough and there isn't quite enough to lift to initiate the instability needed for thunderstorm development. So yes, it may be a soaking rain - but just rain.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026

Conditions are VFR across the board for the 00Z TAF cycle. High clouds do continue to move in from the west, but these will not impact aviation concerns. There is a small chance that some patchy valley fog develops after 06Z however confidence is low at this time that it will effect any TAF sites, so fog was not included with this issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the the TAF period. Look for winds to be light and variable tonight and during the day, Thursday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.