textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Noticeably less humid air prevails early this week, with below normal morning low temperatures.

- Temperatures and humidity will increase Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential for storms.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Look for the valley fog to clear out between 9 and 10 am. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026

As the long term period opens, a high amplitude upper level ridge will sit over the western CONUS, with troughing in the East. Within this broader troughing, a relatively vertically stacked closed low will be located over Ontario, on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. At the surface, a cold front will extend to the southwest of this low (roughly draped from the Upper Midwest into the Great Plains). As this low progresses to the southeast with time, the upper level trough axis will also progress east. A broad area of height falls is expected across the Ohio Valley, intensified by a shortwave that may approach the forecast area around Wednesday afternoon/evening. Concurrently, another surface low originally over the Southern Plains will translate to the northeast, with a warm front lifting north toward Tennessee. Although southwesterly winds should allow for very modest moisture return for the forecast area on Wednesday, the best chances for rain during the day will be closer to the vicinity of the front and the low, well southwest of the forecast area. Thus, the forecast area should remain relatively dry during the day on Wednesday, with warmer weather than in previous days. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 80s, marking a return to average to slightly above average temperatures, and with dewpoints rising back into the 60s, it will feel more humid, too.

Following a relatively quiet day, rain chances will tick up again Wednesday night into Thursday as the aforementioned Canadian low translates eastward and its cold front approaches the forecast area. Scattered showers and storms will be possible ahead of this boundary, although with shear remaining weak (with effective shear in the neighborhood of 20-25 kts), more robust storm organization will be lacking. With the parent low so far north, frontal forcing will also be relatively weak, with a barely perceptible temperature and moisture gradient along the frontal boundary by the time it approaches eastern Kentucky. These factors will keep convective coverage scattered overnight Wednesday through Thursday.

By Friday, the cold front will have cleared the area, marking a return to a drier pattern. The upper level trough axis will be east of the area; meanwhile, the upper level ridge will have expanded eastward somewhat, with height rises across the forecast area and flow becoming increasingly zonal aloft as the trough lifts northward. Given this pattern, temperatures will likely be above average through the duration of the period, with forecast highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. An isolated shower or storm will be possible in far eastern Kentucky on Friday afternoon where the ridging influence is the weakest; otherwise, rain chances will remain low for the duration of the period, with the most notable weather being typical valley fog formation overnight.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026

Valley fog will be a concern early this morning bringing localized IFR or worse conditions, intermittently affecting the KSME and KSJS TAF sites for a brief time through 13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected through the period along with light and variable winds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.