textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend though there remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms early this morning.

- Warmer temperatures and a greater potential for showers and thunderstorms return to start the new work week.

- These storms could be more organized and strong to severe on Monday afternoon into the night depending on MCS development and evolution to the north of Kentucky.

- Drier weather returns for the second half of the upcoming work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 125 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. The training showers and earlier storms are starting to fade out or at least shift to a different basin. Even so, have issued a flood advisory for central parts of Jackson County where the heaviest returns set up this past evening. The minor grid adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1056 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

Radar shows scattered showers primarily over the Cumberland River Basin at update time. This appears to be due to an upper level disturbance riding along a wavy frontal boundary draped from South Carolina to over Central Kentucky and beyond into Southern Illinois. Through the overnight, most of this shower activity should stay near and southwest of the KY-15 corridor while some isolated showers or sprinkles could occur further northeast. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in the strongest cores. Otherwise, it will be variably cloudy and seasonable with patchy fog and low temperatures ranging in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 629 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026

An amplified and pretty stagnant long wave pattern will remain in place over the CONUS through next week. The center of an anomalously strong upper level ridge will gradually shift west over the Four Corners region, while troughing dominates east of the Mississippi River. This will allow for northwesterly flow to continue to be in place aloft across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys early in the upcoming week, with unsettled weather expected. As troughing sharpens up more so across the Eastern Seaboard by the middle and latter half of the work week, enough residual 500 mb height rises will occur across eastern Kentucky to allow for a return of drier weather from Wednesday through Friday, before at least small rain chances return by Saturday, as upper level height falls return across the region.

The threat of MCS activity will be on the table from Monday through Tuesday across eastern Kentucky. Model guidance has been inconsistent in positioning and timing, typical even within 24 hours or less, let alone 36-48 hours out. At this time, the majority of model guidance is pointing more towards a quieter daytime period on Monday, as Sunday night's activity looks to stay and exit mainly to our west. Heat and humidity will continue to build in across the area, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and dew points in the lower 70s. While most activity currently looks to move in after sunset, given the potential for upstream outflow migration and influence, having at least 20-30 PoPs in place as the latest guidance has offered up seems reasonable. Better PoPs move in Monday night and linger into Tuesday. The progressive nature of this activity lends to less of a hydro concern; however, freezing levels will remain high and PWATs will be peaking in the 75th-90th percentile range, so some quick bursts of heavy rainfall are still possible. Additionally, any residual outflow boundaries aligning more parallel with the upper level flow will also need to be monitored, as this would be more conducive to training cells. Cold pool intensity and longevity will dictate the strong to damaging wind gust potential, and this threat will exist Monday and Monday night across our area.

Another hot and humid day is on tap for Tuesday, with additional MCS activity potentially in the vicinity, although even more uncertainty exists regarding the details. A surface cold front will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for the area by Wednesday, with surface high pressure settling across the Ohio Valley. Highs will retreat to more seasonable lower to middle 80s, while lows range from the low to mid 60s at night. Drier weather will give way to small rain chances (around 30%) by Saturday, as high pressure weakens at the surface, and more troughing takes place aloft. Fortunately, dew points will only moderate back into the mid 60s by the start of the next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026

Scattered, mainly light, rain showers are slowly drifting across southwestern parts of the area at the 06Z TAF issuance as a passing wave aloft approaches. The most widespread impacts will likely be across the I-75 corridor region including LOZ where PROB30s are in place for the next several hours - perhaps drifting east enough to threaten KJKL. Though guidance remains bullish on vis reductions early this morning, fog development remains quite uncertain as the clouds will tend to lower through the night and may remain quite substantial - especially over places that saw the more persistent rains. For now, have left out mention of fog in the early morning TAFs and kept the MVFR to IFR ceilings instead. Winds will mostly be light and variable below 5 knots through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.