textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather continues through this afternoon.

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region between tonight and Wednesday morning, leading to widespread rain chances late tonight and on Tuesday.

- Isolated strong storms are possible on Tuesday afternoon/ evening for areas along and south of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY-80 corridor.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will settle into the region for the beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1005 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and satellite trends. Dense fog was becoming less widespread and the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 9 AM EST. Lingering fog in some areas will dissipate within the next hour or so.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 447 AM EST MON NOV 24 2025

The long-term forecast period commences with the approach of a second upper-level trough. The trough responsible for Tuesdays surface low will be absorbed into the mean flow, but simultaneously, a stronger shortwave trough is forecast to dive out of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. This second system is projected to track through the Great Lakes and usher another cold front through the area throughout the day Wednesday before quickly exiting late Wednesday night.

Following the exiting front on Wednesday night, a surface high- pressure system is forecast to build into the region and remain in place from Thanksgiving through late Saturday night. While surface high pressure prevails, the upper-level flow will persist out of the northwest, promoting the advection of colder air for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Long-term deterministic models and a significant portion of their individual ensembles suggest an active conclusion to the long-term period. While discrepancies exist among model runs, the consensus trend is a shortwave perturbation moving out of the southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This feature will bring increasing chances of rain showers, along with the potential for a rain/snow mix Sunday morning before temperatures warm sufficiently to support an all-rain precipitation type.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a couple of mid-week cold fronts, followed by high pressure building into the region on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant and seasonal until Thursday, when the cold front ushers in a significantly colder air mass for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Behind the front, overnight low temperatures will bottom out in the 20s for the mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before a warming trend begins for Sunday morning. Another low-pressure system is forecast to move into the area toward the end of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 120 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025

VFR was reported at issuance time and VFR should prevail for most of, it not the entire period. After 12Z, MVFR may spread as far east at KSYM, KLOZ, and KSME. Shower chances spread across the area between about 00Z and 08Z, in advance of a warm front that lifts into the area ahead of low pressure tracking from the Arklatex into the OH Valley. Showers overnight could lead to brief visibility reductions, but VFR should prevail. Winds will be light and variable through the 03Z to 06Z timeframe, before increasing from the southeast to south to 10KT or less through around 12Z. Thereafter, south to southwest winds at 5 to 13KT are expected with gusts as high as 20 to 25KT. However, until sustained winds increase, a threat of LLWS is anticipated between about 03Z in the west and lingering as late as 15Z to 16Z in the more northern and eastern locations.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.