textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather is expected from tonight to Friday, with temperatures averaging about 5 degrees below normal.

- Unsettled weather is forecast to return this weekend with temperatures warming to near normal by early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 750 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

Ahead of a boundary sagging across the area, a few showers were occurring in the southern two tiers of counties. Based on this and high resolution model trends, hourly pops were updated across the southern two tiers of counties and pops increased back to the Lake Cumberland area based on radar trends.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 525 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

At the onset of the long term period, upper level troughing will extend from eastern Canada into the northeast CONUS, with an additional area of troughing associated with a closed upper level low located off the Pacific Northwest coast. Broad ridging is expected to be centered from the Southern Plains to southern NM area, with anomalously high 500 mb heights across much of the central and western CONUS. Locally, eastern Kentucky will find itself in a region of northwesterly flow aloft, with the forecast area sandwiched between ridging and troughing. At the surface, an area of high pressure will begin the period centered form the Southern Great Lakes to the Northeast Conus, though an inverted trough may extend into pats of eastern KY/Southern Appalachian region from a wave of low pressure traversing a stalled boundary across the Gulf coast states. With drier air in place and the high to the north and northeast generally remaining in control, lows Thursday night should reach the mid and upper 50s in valleys and northern sections to the low 60s south and on coalfield ridges. Typical fog formation is also probable along the larger creeks, rivers, and lakes.

Chances for convection will return Friday afternoon mainly to areas near the VA and TN borders. These chances are where more substantial moisture will be present near and east of the inverted trough that lingers in parts of the Southern Appalachians as a shortwave embedded within persistent northwesterly flow aloft rotates into our area. Upper level ridging should remain generally persistent across parts of the western Conus to Plains over the weekend and into early next week with an upper trough from Canada into parts of the eastern Conus. Northwest flow aloft should persist, and with the potential for additional embedded impulses, rain chances will continue through Saturday, although the timing and details of this activity will need to be refined in later forecast periods. By Sunday, the eastern Canada to eastern/northeastern Conus trough will deepen along the Atlantic Coast, with flow aloft becoming increasingly northerly over the forecast area. Model spread increases significantly at this point, with rain chances dependent on embedded impulses remain difficult to resolve this far out. For now, slight to chance PoPs are forecast through the end of the period, generally peaking each afternoon and evening though uncertainty in timing and coverage remains high at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026

A cold front continues to sag south across eastern Ky and was located from near KBKW to KSJS to just south of KJKL to near KLOZ and KSME. A few showers were occurring near or just ahead of it and there were patches of low clouds and low ceilings and/or visibility reductions in fog on either side of this boundary. Reductions were as low as MVFR or IFR if not locally lower in some cases. Overall, prevailing conditions in all areas gradually improve areawide by the 15Z to 21Z timeframe, as the front drops into VA and TN. A few showers or a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out from KJKL to KSJS and points south through 18Z and further south as late as 01Z. By 03Z, chances for convection finally ends near the TN and VA borders. Some fog may develop, especially in valleys by 06Z or shortly after timeframe with MVFR or perhaps lower reductions. Winds will initially light and variable, become northwest/north between ~09z and 21Z at generally less than 10KT and then slacken and become variable to end the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.