textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be a brief warm-up Wednesday and Thursday before very cold weather returns and lasts into next week.

- There is a chance for light precipitation - primarily rain - on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

- A winter storm system could bring significant snow accumulations this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1025 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026

An upper level trough extended from eastern Canada into the central and eastern Conus this evening. An impulse/shortwave moving through this trough currently extends from the Upper MS Valley to the Central Plains, with a sfc system tracking across the Central U.S. Meanwhile, a surface high centered over the Appalachians is beginning to depart.

As the next shortwave/impulse and associated surface system nears the Lower OH Valley tonight, moisture will gradually return northeast into the Commonwealth on a 40 to 50KT LLJ, with this continuing into the day on Wednesday. This moisture increase will initially be aloft and the further east and southeast into eastern KY, it is projected to increase more slowly. However, some of the convective allowing models, in particular recent HRRR and RAP runs have some light precipitation making it to the surface generally in the far northwest counties on Wednesday morning. Pending moisture depth, if anything manages to overcome the dry low levels this could be liquid or frozen precipitation or a mix. Temperatures would be warming by that time, though given recent cold temperatures if anything did make it to the surface particularly as liquid there is a concern that slick spots could develop. Pops were increased into the slight chance range in the northwest on Wednesday morning with a bit quicker increase in sky cover.

An SPS was sent for the possible wintry mix in the northwest on Wednesday morning, as confidence in precipitation making it to the surface is low for higher pops or other messaging at this point.

Otherwise, hourly grids have been freshened up based on observations in addition to the sky cover and pop trends as noted above.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 345 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026

At the open Thursday, a cutoff low off the California coastline, and a dominate area of high pressure over Western Ontario. Thursday should remain largely quite across Eastern Kentucky, with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 40s across the area. Scattered shower chances creep into the areas along and south of the KY-80/Hal-Rogers corridor, in the early evening. As temperatures cool into the low to mid 20s overnight, these showers will changeover to snow showers. A few tenths of an inch of snow may fall, with little to no major impacts expected.

Friday, will see mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s, north to south across the area. A dry cold front will move through CWA during the day, bringing colder air to the region Friday night. Lows Friday night range from single digits along and north of the I-64 corridor, to the low to mid teens along the TN/VA boarders with Kentucky.

A Gulf low will stream moisture northward into the Tennessee Valley, while a secondary lob of Arctic air will spill south into the Midwest, and Ohio Valley. This will likely setup an area of snowfall across Kentucky through the weekend. Models vary on how progressive the cutoff low off the Baja/California coastline is, but nevertheless this system will eject across the TX/OK area and into the Tennessee Valley. The oddity with this system impacting Kentucky over the weekend is the lack of any low level jet. Most models continue to show this absence, however the 12Z Euro did show a little bit of an 850-mb jet around Tennessee, which would likely contribute to more sufficient snowfall rates. Model soundings also show strong winds within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). The presence of 60-70 knot winds within this layer may lead to fractured dendrites and thus smaller snowflakes. With this in mind, JKL and neighboring offices collaborated to use NBM snow ratios over the higher WPC snow ratios. At current JKL and neighboring offices also used WPC QPF for the weekend storm over the more aggressive NBM QPF. The greatest uncertainty remains on low level forcing needed for sufficient snowfall growth and rates. With the absence of a low- level jet, that may be difficult to obtain. Even still, confidence is growing that the area will see heavy to significant snowfall. The 00Z Grand Ensemble run of the LREF showed the area with a 35-65% chance of exceeding 4 inches of snowfall.

As cold arctic air settles into the areas Saturday, temperatures will struggle to reach 20s north of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor. South of that area, temperatures will range from the upper to mid 20s. Saturday evening, snows showers will continue, with lows in the teens. Sunday afternoon, snow showers will slowly taper off west to east across the area heading into the night. Temperatures will range from the low to upper 20s north to south across the area.

Cold air will continue to advect into the area Sunday night and to start next week, with lows in the single digits across much of the area. Monday and Tuesday, although quiet, will also be quite cold. Highs will struggle to reach 30 on Monday, only to fall into the single digits again at night. Southwesterly winds Tuesday will help to advect warm air into the region, with highs reaching the upper 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2026

VFR conditions were reported at issuance time, with light and variable winds. High pressure will depart to the east, while a weakening cold front will approach. This will lead to low level flow, especially just above the surface, increasing late tonight and Wednesday. This will bring the potential for low level wind shear between about 10Z and 18Z, with the threat diminishing as south to southwest surface winds and gusts increase. Moisture will also increase, with low and mid level clouds arriving toward 12Z in the west, before spreading across the remainder of the area. As the lower levels saturate, precipitation, mainly rain, would begin to reach the surface in the more western locations as early as 15Z to 18Z. Chances would then spread across the remainder of the area to end the period. Along with the precipitation reaching the ground, MVFR, and in some cases at least brief IFR, should develop in western portions of the area by the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.