textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A modest cool down for Sunday and Monday will interrupt what will otherwise be a week of above normal temperatures.

- There is a potential for precipitation at times from Sunday night on. It will probably be cold enough for whatever falls to be a wintery mix in most places Sunday night and Monday, but amounts look to be light.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 301 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026

Surface high pressure remains across the region to begin the forecast period, maintaining dry weather and above-average temperatures. Within a longwave trough situated over the eastern CONUS and eastern Canada, a jet streak tracking into New England will support the progression of a surface cyclone from central Canada toward the Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, an associated cold front will sweep across the northern CONUS. In addition to surface frontal forcing, upper-level divergence will provide additional synoptic lift to support PoP development across the Ohio Valley. Recent model suites have slightly diminished PoP chances to 15 to 20 percent for areas north and northwest of a line from Estill to Wolfe to Elliott counties. Forecast soundings at KIOB and KSYM indicate potential for brief mixed precipitation as low-level cold air advection begins overnight; however, with the column remaining predominantly above freezing, rain will be the primary precipitation type.

Behind the departing front on Sunday, surface high pressure will drift southeastward into the CWA, leading to a brief period of dry weather and cooler temperatures. This lull will be short-lived as upper-level dynamics support cyclogenesis in the Central Plains. This system is progged to track rapidly toward the Commonwealth, with PoP chances increasing Sunday evening and continuing through the remainder of the period. Consistent with previous forecast packages, model guidance continues to exhibit a north-south wobble. These latitudinal shifts remain critical in determining the position of the rain-snow line, as the forecast area remains positioned near a critical thermal threshold. Consequently, a wintry mix appears likely with the arrival of this system Sunday night. Deterministic forecast soundings for areas north of the Mountain Parkway show a pronounced warm nose, which should result in melting and predominant rainfall at the onset. As surface temperatures fall to freezing or below during the early overnight hours, a transition to a rain-snow mix is anticipated. While precipitation type forecasting remains complex, confidence is increasing regarding a higher probability of freezing rain than in previous cycles. By Monday morning, temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing, transitioning all wintry precipitation back to rain. Rain is expected to continue through the end of the period. While model confidence typically degrades after Tuesday, recent runs have come into better agreement regarding a stalled boundary. This feature will likely become the focus for repeated rounds of precipitation, leading to potential hydrologic issues by the end of the forecast period.

The period is highlighted by initial surface high pressure bringing dry and mild conditions through Saturday. A transition to a more active pattern occurs Saturday night as a series of disturbances impact the region. A wintry mix is possible Sunday night into Monday before transitioning back to rain. While temperatures begin above average, fluctuations in synoptic and mesoscale flow will lead to high variability through the early part of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 656 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026

At TAF issuance, conditions varied from high IFR/low MVFR under a lingering stratus deck to VFR where skies had cleared. Overall improvement will occur through the remainder of the evening, with ceilings generally rising and also breaking up from northwest to southeast as time goes by. VFR is forecast area wide by about 04Z.

With very little sun or warming during the day, tonight will already start with high relative humidity at the surface. As skies clear, the good radiating conditions and light winds will lead to fog development. The fog could be pervasive, and all TAF sites are forecast to fall to IFR or worse at least at times overnight into Friday morning. This will be followed by improvement back to VFR with clear skies area wide during the day on Friday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.