textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Much colder air arrives during the second half of the weekend and lingers into early next week.

- Light snow will probably occur in many locations by Sunday, possibly lingering into Monday. Any accumulations look to be on the small side for most of the area - generally highest in the taller terrain of the east.

UPDATE

Issued at 630 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 425 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

Through Sunday, a surface low in the Southeast US, on the lee side of an upper level trough, will work up the the East coast, maturing into a strong Noreaster in the process. Meanwhile, a secondary embedded shortwave originating on the upwind side of the same upper level trough, will propagate southeast out of the Upper Mississippi Valley into western portions of the Ohio Valley. With multiple vorticity lobs transiting over the area, cold air continuing to advect in, and a saturated DGZ layer, snow showers are likely overnight Sunday into Monday. Getting into the day monday, some dry air starts to mix into the DGZ as the stronger surface low continues to track well into New England. Some models and quick to clear out the snow shower chances through Monday, however, northwest flow on the upwind side of a departing low notoriously produces upslope snow showers that tend to linger. As such, POPs were adjusted up and held onto a little further west for Monday afternoon and early evening. Adjustments may have been conservative at present, but can always be adjusted as needed in future forecast updates. The chances for accumulating snow over an inch has shifted east some from the previous forecast, but generally remains east of a line extending form Harlan to Hazard to Paintsville. LREF probabilities continue to show much of Pike County and parts of adjacent counties have a 40 percent or greater chance of at least 1 inch snow accumulation, with much of eastern Pike County (especially higher elevations) having a ~10 percent chance of 2 or more inches of snow. Temperatures Sunday night will generally fall into the low to mid 20s. With breezy conditions possible, and gust of 20-25 mph, wind chills may be hovering in the single digits to teens. Monday temperatures struggle to make it above the freezing mark, with snow showers and flurries which could linger through Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Monday night lows will drop into the teens to low 20s.

Tuesday, a drier regime briefly works into the area, with weak upper level ridging and rising heights aloft. A mix of sun and clouds is expected with temperatures warming into the low to mid 40s. Ridging would have lasted longer if not for another upper level low coming out of Central Canada and the Northern Plains, Monday evening. Through Tuesday this upper-level low moves into the Great Lakes. At some point either Wednesday evening or Thursday morning, this systems cold front will move through Kentucky, bringing PWAT values around an inch to the area. Numerous rain showers are expected Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon, with another trough axis moving through Eastern Kentucky Thursday night. Temperatures gradually warm through the end of the wee, generally in the low to upper 50s through Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

VFR conditions will hold until early this evening. Then IFR, or low end MVFR, conditions move in and worsen through the night, along with some light rain and/or snow. Winds will be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.