textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend takes hold this week, with afternoon highs returning to the lower half of the 90s on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Mainly dry weather continues through Thursday, with only a slight chance for an isolated afternoon storm in the far southern counties.

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend and persist through early next week, with temperatures returning to near normal values in the 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026

This evening we have seen a few very isolated showers develop across portions of the Cumberland Valley. However, given the very isolated nature of these showers and the likelihood of these relenting over the next hour will leave any mention out of the forecast this evening. Outside of this, only minor updates were needed to align grids with the latest obs and trends.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

WSW/ESE oriented ridging aloft over the area will be weakening early in the period. Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the Midwest will also continue to weaken, which will allow higher moisture content air previously tied up on the south side of a dying front over the deep south to migrate northward. The combination of very warm and more moist air along with conditions aloft less favorable for convective inhibition should allow a return of showers and thunderstorms late in the week. A shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow aloft will approach on Friday and pass on Friday night into Saturday, giving a temporal peak in POP. A weakening surface cold front is also expected to approach from the north and northeast late in the weekend and stall near our area. This could also provide a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development, but with upper support waning, coverage would be more questionable. A large scale northeast CONUS upper trough will be deepening early in the new week and will support a more significant cold front to approach us from the north on Tuesday. This gives another increase in POP Tuesday or Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026

VFR conditions remain the story this late afternoon hour at the TAF sites. Most locations will remain VFR through the TAF period under the influence of a nearby surface high pressure. The one issue that we will see tonight is the typical mainly river valley fog developing later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Right now remained close to previous forecast temporally dropping LOZ/SME below IFR for fog given the latest guidance and uncertainty that remains for other sites. However, it would not be too shocking that fog could lead to some temporary restrictions at other sites, but confidence was still not there on this forecast cycle. This fog will lift between 13Z and 14Z Wednesday morning and we will see initially mostly clear skies. Then expect more diurnally driven cumulus to develop in the late morning and early afternoon. Based on the forecast sounding data these will remain above the MVFR levels at around 4 kft. The winds will remain variable and generally below 5 knots through the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.