textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and cool early autumn weather will last from tonight into early next week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 306 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026

The long term period will be largely characterized by pleasant weather. On Saturday morning, a deep vertically stacked low will be located off the coast of the Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, a highly amplified midlevel ridge will be centered over the Mississippi Valley, with a corresponding surface high in the Great Lakes region. This pattern will remain stagnant until early next week; then, the aforementioned low will finally lift north into Canada, allowing the ridge to flatten somewhat and build east. Accordingly, the surface high will shift east of the forecast area, opening the door for the next system to approach near the middle of next week.

With a surface high to the northwest of the forecast area, winds will be largely northeasterly through early next week. This will keep weather cool and dry, with highs generally ranging from the low to mid 70s across the area through Monday. The air will feel dry too, with dewpoints remaining in the 40s and 50s. Bone dry atmospheric profiles will also support plentiful sunshine. Each night, clear skies and a weak pressure gradient will allow ridge valley splits to develop, with COOP MOS guidance suggesting that the most sheltered hollows could see temperatures in the low 40s early Sunday and Monday morning. A brief look into this years temperature records shows these lows will be the coldest eastern Kentucky has experienced since mid May!

Unfortunately for fall lovers, temperatures will trend warmer by Tuesday as the ridge expands towards our area. Highs may climb into the 80s in the warmest locations, although deterministic guidance still shows some spread (owing to disagreements regarding the strength and positioning of the ridge at this time). Corresponding with the breakdown of this blocking pattern, the eastward progression of the surface high will also allow winds to become increasingly southwesterly, bringing warm and moist air back into the forecast area. Highs in the 80s will be likely across much of the forecast area on Wednesday, and with dewpoints climbing into the 60s, it will feel more humid. This increasing moisture, in tandem with an approaching trough, will enable rain chances to finally return to the forecast on Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026

The period started with MVFR conditions (due to ceilings) over the northern portion of the forecast area, and mainly VFR with ceilings in the 3-5K range over the southern portion of the forecast area. Isolated light showers were present over the southern portion of the area. The area of isolated showers is forecast to move south southwest and dissipate as it moves into TN early this evening. Conditions area wide will improve overall through early evening, with VFR expected by nightfall. Valley fog should develop and spread during the night and then dissipate Friday morning. It will bring localized IFR worse conditions, and could affect a few TAF sites at times.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.