textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather with warm afternoons persists into the weekend.

- A low potential for rain will return on Sunday, with a more significant system bringing a higher potential for widespread rain arriving around the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

The varying degree of breaks in the clouds as well as some valley locations decoupling and remaining decoupled overnight led to a wide range of temperatures overnight. Some of the deeper eastern and northeastern valleys were in the upper 30s to around 40 as of 7 AM EDT. Otherwise, temperatures ranged through the 40s to the 50s on ridgetops and in areas of more open terrain. Some river valley fog is also present in the southeast. This fog should lift and dissipate over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, hourly temperature and dewpoint grids for the next couple of hours were freshened up based on recent observations.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 457 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

At the start of the long term period, a well defined shortwave will be located just west of the forecast area. Otherwise, midlevel ridging will dominate much of the eastern CONUS; meanwhile, farther west, a substantial trough will be located over the Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure will sit over the Northeast, with a cold air damming pattern on the other side of the Appalachians. For our area, this pattern will favor southeasterly downslope winds, which should work to suppress dewpoints somewhat, even as total column moisture increases (with PW values surpassing 1 inch in most locations, anomalously moist compared to climatology). Despite the size of this shortwave, height falls won't be particularly intense, and this, in combination with meager low level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 30s and low 40s), should work against any widespread rain, particularly east of I-75. The best chance for appreciable rain will be in our southwestern counties, where low level moisture should be more robust, with rain chances and QPF generally decreasing closer to Virginia and West Virginia. Even in our southwestern counties, however, a lack of instability should keep rain totals unimpressive.

Following the passage of this rather unimpressive shortwave, a more substantial system will arrive next week, bringing more widespread rain chances. Aloft, ridging will attempt to quickly build back in by late Monday, though a second and more subtle shortwave will cross through the area later in the day, with associated cloud cover keeping lows fairly warm in the upper 40s and low 50s. Should this wave be weaker than currently modeled, it is possible some clearing allows valleys to cool slightly more than is currently forecast; however, given ensemble preference towards a mostly cloudy sky, terrain distinctions have been neglected for now. Tuesday will also be dry during the day as ridging amplifies aloft over our area, with the aforementioned deep trough to the west now featuring two distinct closed lows aloft: one in the Upper Midwest and another farther south near the Southern Plains, although there is significant model discrepancy regarding the positioning and evolution of this southern feature. At the surface, an area of low pressure associated with this potent system will push northeast, with southeasterly to southerly winds locally ahead of this system, but atmospheric moisture will be very high, with LREF mean PW values in the range of 1.1-1.3 inches, firmly above the 90th percentile according to climatology. This moist environment and strong source of forcing will set the stage for widespread rainfall, with the highest rain chances currently on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. With this system, a tight pressure gradient will be in place, with fairly strong flow just above the surface; despite sizable model uncertainty, LREF mean 925 mb flow is around 25-30 kt for much of the forecast area, indicating increasing confidence in breezy conditions for our highest terrain as this system moves through. Even so, despite such potent kinematics, meager instability should limit any threat of severe weather.

Looking ahead, PoPs look to decrease on Friday, with a trend towards cooler weather. However, immense model spread regarding the evolution of this system adds considerable uncertainty by the end of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

Some river valley fog was affecting a few locations generally south of the TAF sites, with reductions likely to MVFR or lower. This fog should lift and dissipate through around 14Z and TAF sites will not be affected. VFR is expected to prevail through the period, with gradually lowering high clouds and the arrival of some mid level clouds during the second half of the TAF period as an upper level ridge shifts east and a disturbance approaches from the southwest. Light winds will become east to southeast areawide around 14Z, but remain less than 10KT. Winds will become light and variable around sunset and remain at that level to end the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.