textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is still a potential for damaging wind gusts with today's storms in far eastern Kentucky.

- A slow-moving weather system keeps daily shower and storm chances, along with some heavy rain potential, in the forecast through Tuesday.

- Somewhat drier and warmer weather returns Wednesday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky/PoP grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 510 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

The first part of the extended will be dealing with the rare 5h low over the Deep South as it gradually fills but not before it keeps things unsettled for eastern Kentucky through at least mid week. A more active jet stream to the north follows into the upcoming weekend but whether any systems can take advantage of this to reach into Kentucky and help to clear out the leftover moisture remains to be seen. As such, we anticipated unsettled activity through the rest of the week though adhering to more of a diurnal pattern.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long wave pattern will remain stagnant and amplified over the CONUS next week. Two strong upper level high pressure systems will be centering over Bermuda and the Four Corners region with time. Meanwhile, a slow-moving trough will initially be laid out near or just west of the Appalachians, keeping unsettled weather in place across the region early next week. The trough will dampen by mid- week, as higher geopotential heights spread west towards the Eastern Seaboard from the Bermuda high center. In tandem, higher geopotential heights will work east of the Mississippi River from the Four Corners high center. Additionally, cyclonic flow will overspread the north central CONUS from a deeper upper level low that will be gyring over Hudson Bay. This will likely result in any frontal systems remaining generally north of the Ohio Valley into next weekend, and while diurnally-influenced PoPs will remain in the forecast, coverage will likely be more scattered in nature for the latter half of next week.

Eastern Kentucky will start out under the influence of an upper level trough, keeping higher rain chances in place through at least Tuesday. PWATs will not be excessively high (LREF mean values of 50-75th percentile of climatology); however, high freezing levels and slower storm motions of 10 to 15 kts will keep at least a marginal heavy rainfall threat in place at times. Temperatures will average near seasonal normals for early August, with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the mid 60s, with elevated humidity levels. As we come more under the influence of the ridging aloft, rain chances will generally decrease, with convection becoming more scattered in nature each day, especially from Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will creep up a bit through next weekend, peaking in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will also moderate through the upper 60s to near 70, with higher humidity levels continuing across the area.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

A slow-moving occluded front is lying over the JKL CWA. This will keep a broken band of showers and thunderstorms through eastern parts of the area this morning. Until a few hours after dawn, low stratus or fog may impact a few of the more western TAF terminals. Additional showers and storms are expected to redevelop for most TAF sites by midday - diminishing in the evening. The strongest of the storms should stay east of all but the KSJS terminal. Low clouds and sub IFR visibility in fog is anticipated late tonight. Away from any storms, winds will generally be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.