textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front brings chances for showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, followed by additional chances at midweek.

- Patchy frost is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning in deeper rural valleys and hollows - mainly away from mainstem rivers.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 237 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026

Tuesday, in the wake of a chilly morning, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 70s across the area under light and variable winds and mostly sunny skies. Eastern Kentucky will briefly be under high pressure. The next approaching system comes from Southern Manitoba. Through Tuesday this area of low pressure progresses east towards the Great Lakes. With a lax pressure gradient, (under 5 mb difference across the area) overnight, along with light winds and clear skies to start off with, a rather large ridge-valley split may develop as sheltered valleys and hollows decouple heading in the evening. At current, lows are expected to range from the low to mid 40s in the most sheltered valleys, while ridge tops remain in the low to mid 50s. With dew points expected to be in the lower 40s, some fog formation is possible, mainly along mainstem river valleys.

Approaching Wednesday morning the above mentioned system will have be over the Great Lakes, with its cold front remaining just west of the area. Increased cloud cover and wind is expected closer to Wednesday morning, so any fog that does develop overnight may mix out by early Wednesday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday with the frontal passage, though no storms are currently expected to be severe. Wednesday evening, after the front has moved through skies will clear out and winds will veer to a northwesterly direction. Temperatures will likely cool into the mid 40s.

Thursday, high pressure builds back into the area leading to mostly sunny skies. The area will still remain under light northerly winds, so afternoon temperatures may be a bit cooler, in the upper 60s for most. At current, low temperatures are generally thought to be in the mid 40s for Thursday night, however, forecasted dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s, along with clear skies, light winds, and a weak pressure gradient over the region, sheltered valleys may decouple heading into the evening, leading to a cooler low than ridge- tops that may stay somewhat mixed.

Friday through Sunday, model spread increases. However the overall trend is for warmer temperatures, reaching the upper 80s to near 90 by Sunday. Ensembles do hint at another system towards in this timeframe, but confidence is low on timing. As a result the NBM has smoothed isolated to scattered POPs over these days.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at issuance time with areas of low and mid-level clouds. A cold front with wind shift to north and northwest winds was located between KFGX and KSYM/KIOB. This cold front will continue tracking south-southeast and across all sites by 05z tonight. Daytime heating may allow for scattered convection during the 18Z to 00Z timeframe with more isolated activity elsewhere, but confidence is too low to include anything but PROB30 or TEMPO groups at this time. A lull in activity could occur between 00Z and 06Z before renewed activity in the south as an upper disturbance moves along the surface cold front toward the TN/VA border, with PROB30 groups at sites to indicate this possibility. Winds will remain at generally less than 10KT through the period, though could be locally gusty with the cold front passage. West to southwest winds will shift to the northwest to north direction areawide between 18Z and 00Z, with a gradual shifting to a more northeasterly direction overnight through the end of the TAF period, though wind speeds will remain light (less than 7 kts) for the last 12 hours of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.