textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather through this evening, though locally dense river valley fog is expected early this morning.

- A cold front brings scattered to widespread thunderstorms tonight and Thursday, with a few strong wind gusts and localized heavy rain and flooding possible.

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air arrives this weekend and continues into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 901 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026

Based on satellite obs, have updated the very near term for fog and low clouds holding on longer this morning in southeast KY.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 429 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026

As the frontal boundary associated with Thursday's convection lingers near the area on Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will persist, with the highest probabilities during the afternoon along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY Highway 80 corridor. Beyond Friday, models and ensemble guidance remain in broad agreement on a continued upper-level pattern featuring a ridge over the western CONUS and troughing across the east, though amplitude differences remain. Another shortwave embedded within the longwave trough is projected to drop out of Northwest Canada into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday. This will drop another cold front across the Commonwealth, though convective coverage and intensity is uncertain due to frontal passage timing. A cool Canadian high pressure system follows that cold front to kick off the last full week of August. However, the quiet weather won't last very long as yet another shortwave feature drops into the trough mid-week, bringing another cold front with a renewed opportunity of convection across eastern Kentucky, perhaps as early as Tuesday but more likely in the days beyond the end of the forecast period. Temperatures will run not far from seasonal norms, mostly in the lower to middle 80s for afternoon highs while nighttime lows range in the lower to mid 60s. Some of the cooler sheltered valleys could dip into the 50s early next week. Dew points could still be a bit sticky on Friday - not far from the 70F mark - but should become much more comfortable for the rest of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026

Outside of the river valley fog, VFR conditions are noted across eastern Kentucky at the 12Z TAF issuance time. High pressure situated over the Central/Southern Appalachians this morning has brought highly favorable conditions for valley fog formation. With the onset of diurnal heating, the fog will quickly lift/dissipate by 13-14Z. High clouds and a few cumulus will arrive from the west today but conditions will remain VFR until late tonight when showers and thunderstorms return ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will be westerly at around 10 kts or less today, becoming light once again tonight, except locally strong and erratic near any thunderstorms late in the night.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.