textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal high temperatures and seasonably chilly low temperatures for valley locations continue into mid-week. - Rain chances return on Wednesday evening and linger into Friday as a developing weather system crosses the area and then strengthens to our east.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much colder air moves into eastern Kentucky on the back side of that system.

UPDATE

Issued at 650 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends. This led to some adjustments to hourly temperatures and dewpoints over the next few hours. At this time opted not to make changes to min temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 319 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2026

At the start of the long term period, midlevel troughing will be located over the eastern CONUS, with amplified midlevel ridging over the Intermountain West and High Plains. Farther west, two closed lows will be located off the Pacific Coast: one near British Columbia, and another off the coast of California. Closer to eastern Kentucky, multiple shortwaves will be embedded within the eastern CONUS trough, with the first shortwave on the eastern fringes of the forecast area on Thursday morning. At the surface, an area of low pressure associated with this feature will be located in the Mid Atlantic region, with a secondary cold front initially just to our north. This front will progress through eastern Kentucky during the day on Thursday, with winds becoming more northwesterly as the front passes. Associated CAA will keep temperatures below average throughout the day. Thus, expect a non- diurnal temperature curve during the day on Thursday, with highs occurring in the morning for most locations (generally in the low 50s), although with the caveat that some frontal timing discrepancies still exist within deterministic guidance.

More interestingly, this system could bring the first snowflakes of the season to eastern Kentucky. Rain will be likely during the day on Thursday as temperatures remain fairly warm (in the 40s and 50s for all but the highest elevations). Multiple shortwaves should provide ample lift for precipitation on Thursday and Friday, and upslope flow via northwesterly post-frontal winds should also enhance these chances, particularly given the deterministic model signal for this flow to interact with a moisture plume originating from Lake Michigan. Given this favorable setup, PoPs were manually increased from the NBM baseline, with the greatest PoPs in the high terrain of southeastern Kentucky. By Friday morning, cooler air aloft could support the transition to a mixture of rain and snow for much of the forecast area, although with relatively warm surface temperatures, rain should still be the primary precipitation type in most locations, except in the highest terrain. Some winter precipitation could linger in far eastern Kentucky on Saturday, although PoPs should decline beyond this point as heights rise and a drier pattern sets in.

A calmer pattern will return by Sunday, with tranquil weather expected through the remainder of the period. Aloft, the ridge initially over the Intermountain West will shift east as the aforementioned Pacific systems move onshore, with the original deep trough now east of the forecast area. Thus, at the surface, high pressure will set in, with dry and uneventful weather expected. High temperatures will trend warmer under the influence of aforementioned height rises, though winds will still maintain a light northerly component around the surface high, keeping maxTs near to slightly below average for this time of year despite ample sunshine. Overnight, lows will be cool, falling into the 20s in many valley locations.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2026

A ridge of sfc high pressure was centered across the Appalachians to begin the period with VFR observed. The high will remain in place across the Appalachians tonight before it weakens and shifts east and a low pressure system approaches from the west. Valley fog may affect locations along the larger creeks, rivers, and lakes between about 04Z and 14Z, with MVFR to potentially localized IFR, or worse, conditions. This is still not expected to affect any of the TAF sites, however. Moisture will begin to increase at high and then mid levels by 18Z and after to end the period and some high and then mid level clouds will begin to arrive from the west before 00Z. As the cold front nears, low clouds and showers are anticipated to arrive during the last 6 hours of the period. Some reductions to MVFR or briefly lower conditions are probable during the last 6 hours of the period. Winds will average 10KT or less generally from the south to southwest, with winds likely trending more westerly at the end of the period in the west. A few gusts of 20KT or more cannot be completely ruled out in showers late in the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.