textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog will likely develop late tonight and could become locally dense in the valleys and through the northeast portion of the area.

- Passing high pressure briefly ushers in cooler and drier air on Saturday, but unsettled weather and widespread rain chances return later that night into Sunday.

- Expect cooler than normal temperatures early next week as broad troughing dominates the weather pattern aloft.

UPDATE

Issued at 1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as taking out the thunder chances. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a cold front settling into eastern Kentucky. This is mostly dry with the deeper moisture and stronger convection off to the southeast of the state. Still a stray shower or storm is possible as this boundary sinks deeper into the area along with some sprinkles. Currently, amid northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph along and north of the front and light winds to the south, temperatures are running in the upper 70s north to the mid 80s in the south. Meanwhile, dewpoints vary from the lower 60s well behind the boundary to the lower 70s along it and just to the south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as to tamp down the PoPs and thunder chances through the rest of the evening. Later this night do expect areas of fog to develop and become locally dense in the valleys and perhaps for much of the northeast. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 250 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026

The early part of the period will feature an upper low in the vicinity of Ontario and Hudson Bay with troughiness extending southward over the eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this trough will support a cold front which should move through the JKL forecast area from northwest to southeast on Sunday afternoon and evening. Due to the development of the upper trough, there will be a bit stronger flow aloft and more shear (although nothing phenomenal) than during preceding recent rounds of thunderstorms. Should there be enough instability, some strong storms won't be ruled out on Sunday, but the degree of instability remains uncertain. This is partly due to uncertainty in the timing of convection, with a potential for early day convection left over from an MCS originating to our west.

Once the front and its inclement weather move through, noticeably less humid air will arrive Sunday night and carry into the early part of the workweek. Additional waves will be moving through the eastern CONUS trough, but timing/location varies from model to model and run to run, leaving little confidence in the details of the forecast. The most significant wave looks to be late in the week, supporting another cold front to move through Thursday or Thursday night. Brisk low level southwest flow ahead of the front would bring warmer and more humid air back into our area briefly before the front arrives, and probably fuel a round of showers/thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026

As a drying cold front drops through the area chances for a stray shower and MVFR CIGs may linger through 02Z. Winds of less than 10 kts will trend from southwest to northwest through 04Z and then gradually weaken to light and variable into the deep night. As high pressure builds in later tonight, fog is expected to impact valley locations by 04Z and much of the rest of the area after midnight. As a result, some, or all, of the TAF sites could also experience fog lifting into them through the early morning hours. VFR conditions then return area-wide by 14Z Saturday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.