textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Passing disturbances and moisture return will result in increasing cloud cover, scattered showers, isolated storms, and occasional sprinkles today and tomorrow. - Expect several consecutive warmer days with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, alongside mild overnight lows in the 40s to lower 60s. - A more active weather pattern will be in place for the second half of the week, with daily chances for showers and some thunderstorms at times.

UPDATE

Issued at 854 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

In accordance with the observed increase in lightning flashes across the Big Sandy Basin over the last hour, slight thunder chances were introduced to the forecast in northeastern portions of the forecast area through 14z. By 15z, the relatively stronger convective activity is expected to depart the forecast area, although scattered rain showers and sprinkles will persist elsewhere. The rest of the forecast remains on track, and an additional round of rain showers is expected to develop this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a touch-up to the near term PoPs. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 611 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026

There is good model agreement regarding more amplified flow to reign over the CONUS through the majority of the week. A sharper ridge will remain positioned over the western Atlantic through the first half of the weekend. At the same time, troughing takes hold generally west of the Mississippi River, as bouts of inbound eastern Pacific energy move onshore. This trough will work east into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by Sunday, with flow dampening by that time. The models have come into better agreement with some of the smaller scale features through the end of the work week, with timing differences increasing this weekend.

Clouds and rain chances will be on the rise for the second half of Tuesday night out ahead of an approaching cold front. Still, expect valleys to decouple early on, with mid to upper 50s expected for lows, while ridges stay up in the lower to middle 60s. Model guidance has generally trended leaner on the PoPs for this period, and given the weakness of the expected forcing, have left out the mention of thunder. Better rain chances will move in Wednesday, as the cold front draws closer. Still, given the trend of less forcing, did undercut the blended guidance for the PoPs, and suspect that PoPs could come in even lower with time.

Eastern Kentucky will then remain in the warm sector from Thursday through Saturday, with daily chances of PoPs continuing, although these have come down more markedly since yesterday, with the better forcing remaining more focused to our northwest. As the final bout of short wave energy moves through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Sunday, a more decisive cold front will move through the region. Still, given the timing differences this far out, PoPs only peak in the good chance range (around 50%).

Confidence remains high that temperatures will average between 15 and 20 degrees above normal through Saturday, with highs in the 70s and 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. Highs will retreat to the 60s on Sunday with the frontal passage; however, there remains considerable spread in the temperatures by that time.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026

VFR conditions are holding (barely) at the 12Z TAF issuance with passing mid and high level clouds. However, some lower CIGs to the cusp of MVFR, sprinkles, and light showers will begin to develop over the area during the next few hours but more likely later in the morning continuing to be an impact on aviation concerns until evening. While light southerly winds are noted through the area early this morning, sustained southwesterly winds of 9 to 12 kts with gusts to ~20 kts are expected to set up around or after 15Z - diminishing after sunset but with a good potential for renewed LLWS from the southwest at up to 40 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.