textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected Friday, and this could combine with drying conditions to result in a threat of wildfires.

- Temperatures moderate this weekend under mostly to partly sunny skies.

- A strong cold frontal passage on Sunday night will return gusty winds, precipitation chances, and chilly conditions to the forecast early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1155 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as high clouds continue to overspread the area from the northwest and thicken. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026

00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and keep skies mostly clear, though some high clouds are inbound from the northwest. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 40s - with some upper 30s noted in sheltered valleys. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are generally quite dry in the upper single digits to mid teens. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 535 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026

The period beings with a broad trough from the Hudson Bay area into the Conus with a bit of a zonal flavor initially. A shortwave trough should initially extend from Quebec/St Lawrence Valley to the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. The associated sfc low should be over the Northeast Conus with the trailing baroclinic zone extending into southeastern VA to the TN Valley to portions of the Central Plains to WY and MT to Northwest Conus. A sfc ridge of high pressure should initially extend from the western Great Lakes to the mid OH Valley area. After a briefly zonal flavor, the pattern amplifies and has a trough developing over the High Plains/Plains/Central Conus to end the weekend on Sunday. This trough should reach the MS Valley late Sunday night and then move into the eastern Conus on Monday. At that point, the a closed low developing is the general consensus of guidance with that upper low tracking across the Great Lakes through Monday night and then treks into Ontario and Quebec before weakening to an open wave on Tuesday. The axis of this trough should cross eastern KY late Monday night or Tuesday morning. An initial shortwave trough should reach the OH Valley late Sunday evening, crossing the Commonwealth Sunday night to early Monday with another shortwave following that later on Monday. At the surface, low pressure should organize over the Plains and then cross the Central Conus Sunday and move into the eastern Conus and into the Great Lakes Sunday night. An initial cold front should cross the Commonwealth Sunday night to early Monday with a secondary cold front later Monday into Monday night.

The late weekend cold front and associated trough will bring the next chance for precipitation by late Sunday evening to Monday evening or night. The timing of this rather vigorous system will favor convection including potentially strong to severe storms west of eastern KY though some 00Z GEFS and ENS based AI guidance suggest that about a marginal risk of severe storms could extend into the CWA, mainly the west. Temperatures warm well into the 70s to near 80s with more of a southerly downslope flow. This may limit moisture return and instability with eastern extent, though immediately downwind of Pine Mtn near Whitesburg, etc. 80 might be reachable on Sunday. Otherwise, much colder air moves in behind the front during Monday, which is a slower trend compared to guidance 24 to 48 hours ago. 850 mb temperatures should fall to near 7C near the VA near sunrise on Monday morning with values near 0C in the west per the 12Z LREF means. Both the recent LREF means and operational guidance support cold air advection continuing through the day on Monday and Monday night, with the coldest air across the area around dawn on Tuesday morning. 850 mb temperatures fall toward if not below about -8C near the VA line and about -12C in the west through Sunset on Monday evening. These cool further to around -15C by dawn Tuesday also per the 12Z LREF. If sufficient low level moisture exists, upslope flow and steep lapse rates support continued shower chances in the form of rain and snow Monday to Monday evening trending to primarily snow showers and flurries later Monday. Temperatures should fall through the day on Monday with most places in the 30s to low 40s by evening. Temperatures likely reach colder levels than recent nights, int he upper teens to low 20s for Monday night.

The cold air mass with 850 mb temperatures only moderating to around the -10C through Tuesday evening per the 12Z LREF mean. This occurs as high pressure builds in on Tuesday, shifting east of the area at midweek that may be accompanied by at least a moderate ridge/valley temperature split Monday night and Tuesday as it departs. Temperatures moderate on Wednesday to nearer to, but still below normal. With another system approaching, there is a small chance of showers with little or no measurable rain at midweek. Further moderation in temps occurs Thursday.

The main deviations from the NBM deterministic were to undercut dewpoints toward the lower percentiles for Saturday, insert a pattern and climatologically favored ridge/valley split for the east Sat night with departing high pressure, and then increase wind speeds and gusts on Sunday ahead of the approaching system as has been the trend with systems this winter that have most frequently been breezier than the NBM deterministic. Some adjustments down to dewpoints were made on Sunday with southerly downslope component and Max T was raised in some areas just downwind of the VA border.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites for the start of the 00Z TAF cycle with just some high clouds working into the area from the northwest. Winds will start to shift to the south overnight and then begin intensifying as a low pressure system passes to the north of Kentucky on Friday. Mid to high level clouds increase in response to this, though any associated ceilings would remain above VFR thresholds. However, a low level jet on the south side of that system will likely introduce a period of LLWS of southwest winds at up to 50 kts to the TAF sites Friday morning through dawn before diurnal mixing brings the gusty winds aloft down to the surface by mid-morning. The LLWS and those wind daytime gusts will be the primary aviation challenge Friday, as visibility will be well above 6SM for the duration of the forecast period along with CIGs above 10k feet AGL.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ104-106>120.