textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures average 5 to 15 degrees above normal through Saturday, and 15 to 20 degrees above normal for Sunday to Wednesday.

- A weak cold front brings isolated to scattered showers tonight into Saturday, but average rainfall from these are expected to be meager.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday and persist through much of next week as the area will be on the far eastern/southeastern periphery of an active storm track from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region.

UPDATE

Issued at 1130 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also a tinkering of the PoPs through the night per the current radar and CAMs guidance - mainly just scattered light showers. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a weak cold front settling into Kentucky from the north this evening. This is mostly noted by a band of thicker and lower clouds along with some needed showers just starting to impinge on the northern parts of the JKL CWA. Currently, temperatures are running in the balmy low to mid 70s most places. Meanwhile, amid west to southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts near the front, dewpoints range from the upper 40s north near the front to the lower 30s in the southeast. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also tweak the PoPs per the latest radar and CAMs guidance through the night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 247 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026

The extended period begins with the forecast area under the influence of surface high pressure. A dry warm front, associated with a surface low tracking eastward into the Great Lakes, is progged to lift through the region Sunday morning. This will be followed by rising geopotential heights aloft and the development of a strong LLJ. Within the warm sector, temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 80s supported by robust southwesterly flow. While LREF wind probabilities highlight the Bluegrass and northern portions of the CWA for the highest potential gusts, a stout inversion is forecast to settle just below the strongest momentum. Without a significant mixing mechanism to overcome this stable layer, surface gusts may remain limited. Consequently, Sunday is expected to be warm with a steady southwesterly breeze. Clouds will increase Sunday night, though conditions remain mild with overnight lows only falling into the low to mid 60s.

The approaching cold front is forecast to undergo frontolysis as it nears the area. Despite this weakening trend, sufficient forcing remains to maintain a 15 to 20% PoP beginning Monday morning and persisting through the day. As the boundary decays and eventually stalls, it will serve as the primary focal point for convective development through the remainder of the forecast period. Precipitation chances will be maximized during the afternoon hours, with activity diminishing toward sunset following the loss of diurnal instability. Some of these storms may be on the stronger side; however, without substantial shear to support longer-lived updrafts, most will be garden variety with gusty outflow winds and heavy rainfall.

Temperatures will remain well above seasonal climatology, appearing more characteristic of July than mid-April. Overall, the forecast period is highlighted by unseasonably warm temperatures and daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This convective activity is expected to dissipate each evening, only to undergo diurnal renewal the following afternoon.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026

VFR conditions are in place and expected to hold through the first part of the evening, with high thin cirrus giving way to thickening mid-level clouds from the northwest as a cold front approaches. The potential for MVFR ceilings increases after 06Z from the northwest, with the low potential for a few isolated showers impacting IOB and SYM late in the night. Confidence in impacts at the terminals was too low to include mention for this TAF issuance. The low CIGs linger into the afternoon, Saturday, before clearing out and back to VFR as the front dissipates. Southwest to west winds at 5 to 10 kts with some higher gusts will decrease with the loss of daytime heating but also veer to a more northerly direction at ~5 kts or less behind the frontal passage.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.