textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist into Saturday, before a modest cool down for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front.

- After low chances (<20%) for measurable rain in the north behind a late weekend cold front, there is greater potential for more widespread precipitation at times next week.

- There is a potential for a wintery mix in more northern locations Sunday night and Monday, but at this time, any accumulations look to be light.

UPDATE

Issued at 1207 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026

Nudged tonight's minimum temperatures a couple of degrees lower in the valleys -- upper 20s to lower 30s for most. Otherwise, expect clear skies to continue through the early morning with the possibility of a little patchy fog in the most sheltered valleys.

UPDATE Issued at 920 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

Temperatures have dipped into the 30s/40s valleys and are nearing 50F over the thermal belt ridge. Still anticipate widespread lows in the 30s through the valleys and low 40s on thermal belt ridges. Some upper 20s cannot be ruled in the colder hollows (like Sandy Hook and West Liberty).

UPDATE Issued at 608 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

A gorgeous evening is underway across eastern Kentucky with fair skies and temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. The forecast remains on track -- expect temperatures to fall quickly after sunset into the 40s through late evening with the colder valleys dipping into the 30s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 237 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

There will be a persistent threat of precipitation through most of the long term period, with the period looking rather wet overall.

A cold front is expected to be passing southeast through the forecast area at the start of the period and exiting during the day Sunday. This front, and low pressure systems moving along it, will be the main features for the entire long term time frame. Little moisture return will occur before the front's initial passage on Sunday, and the POP looks low and any precip very light on Sunday.

Moving forward in time, the forecast issues center on the amount of cold/dry air which initially arrives behind the front, and the extent of gulf moisture which ends up overriding the cold air Sunday night into Monday as high pressure over the far southeast CONUS breaks down. Models dont agree on these things, with the NAM allowing colder/drier air to arrive as compared to the ECMWF or GFS. The NAM also has less flow off the gulf. As a result, the 12Z NAM is dry for our area on Sunday night and Monday, while the 12Z GFS (the wettest model) had 1/4-3/4" water equivalent for almost the whole area for those 24 hours. Complicating matters, the GFS is cold enough for a wintery mix during this time (mainly in our northern counties), giving more significant impacts than would occur with just rain. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF is warm enough for mainly rain. With all that in mind, forecast confidence is not very high, and the official forecast using blended data will tend to smooth things out.

Models differences continue from Monday night on, especially with positioning/timing of the wavering front as a couple of low pressure systems develop and track along it. The National Blend of Models in use will again tend to smooth this out, when the reality as things play out will probably be more defined precip and temperature regimes. Thus, confidence in forecast specifics is still not very high.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail across all sites at TAF issuance. Under the regime of high pressure, TAFs should be VFR through the period; however, river valley fog may develop early this morning in the most sheltered locales. Otherwise, light and variable winds are forecast tonight becoming southwest to west around 5 kts on Saturday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.