textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A more active weather pattern sets up early next week, with multiple chances for widespread showers and storms from Monday night through Wednesday.

- Severe weather potential remains masked by forecast uncertainty here in Eastern Kentucky, but a stronger line of storms is poised to approach the I-75 corridor early on Tuesday morning.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible later on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, and these will bring highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once a frontal boundary finally clears the area late next week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 300 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Sunday evening into Monday will generally be quiet for Eastern Kentucky, as the surrounding area sees rising heights from a building ridge over the Ohio Valley. Clear skies and light winds Sunday night will lead to ridge valley splits in temperatures. Ridges will likely cool into the low 50s while colder valleys decouple into the low to mid 40s.

Monday, Eastern Kentucky will sneak in a nice day ahead of the next approaching system, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs around the lower 80s. Through Monday, a surface low in the Central Plains will propagate northeast into the Upper Midwest. A surface warm front will slowly encroach into the area from the southwest. Later Monday, now looking well into the overnight, showers and thunderstorms will move across Kentucky ahead of an approaching cold front. This comes as the trough becomes negatively titled. Latest models and ensembles have been slowing the progression of the cold front across Kentucky. With the latest model runs, the systems cold front may progress through Eastern Kentucky sometime Tuesday. This is important to note due to the slowed progression, storm environment may be more suitable for severe weather Tuesday afternoon. With MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and 0-3km SRH in the 150-250 m2/s2 range, model trends should be watched. In lieu of the latest model trends, showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday.

Model spread increases beyond the frontal passage, Tuesday. However, looking at the WPC's cluster mean 24-hr 500 mb heights and anomalies, 100 ensemble runs including those from the Canadian, GFS, and European favor troughing of some degree over the Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. This will trend temperatures cooler towards the end of the week, and beginning of May.

A series of shortwaves could propagate through the Great Lakes upper level low through the end of the period, which would lead to a continued pattern of unsettled weather and additional shower and storm chances. Given this potential, precipitation will be possible through the remainder of the long term period. However, details of this forecast remain unclear at this time, and confidence in PoPs is very low on any given day.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Generally VFR/high MVFR conditions are noted at TAF issuance except for locally worse conditions in scattered showers/isolated storms near/south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor. This activity, associated with a weakening cold front should depart into VA by 22Z with most locations experiencing solidly VFR conditions by then. However, a weak disturbance could spark a few more isolated showers, especially over the Big Sandy Basin later in the evening. Fog can be expected to form in sheltered valley locales this evening in locations experience substantive rainfall but is not expected to impact the TAF sites. However, this may lift in many areas by morning depending upon a potential low stratus deck drifting in from the northeast overnight. The fog/and or stratus deck could bring a period of MVFR or worse conditions to affected terminals, greater chances east of I-75. Winds will be light and variable in general through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.