textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Look for areas of dense fog to affect the locations mainly along and north of the Mountain Parkway through dawn.

- Wet weather will last through most of the upcoming week, but some drying may occur by next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 140 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the dropping of the remainder of the Flood Watch in the far southeast. Did also beef up the fog in the north per the obs and CAMs visibility guidance. In addition, included the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids along with adding a drizzle component to the Wx grids into dawn. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1057 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

No substantive changes were made on this late evening update other than to drop the northwestern segment of the Flood Watch. Showers have become confined primarily to the southeastern half of the CWA and that is where the second segment of the Flood Watch remains in effect until 200 AM.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

Heavier rainfall has departed into WV/VA and just scattered to numerous mainly light showers continue across the forecast area. This activity should gradually diminish over northwestern counties through the remainder of the evening and overnight as a cold front slowly moves into eastern Kentucky.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 429 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

The forecast period opens on Tuesday with a stalled boundary oriented west-to-east across the Commonwealth. This boundary will serve as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm development through much of the upcoming week. In line with previous model suites and forecast packages, heavy rainfall indices remain largely unchanged. Forecast PWATs continue to range from 1.70 inches to 1.90 inches, driven by robust moisture advection. These high precipitable water values, paired with skinny CAPE profiles noted in model soundings, continue to indicate highly efficient rainfall production along the boundary.

Long-term guidance hints at a breakdown of this wet and stormy pattern late in the week as the stationary front sags southward as a cold front, bringing an end to the widespread precipitation. Nonetheless, prior to the cold frontal passage late in the week, forecast QPF ranges from 0.75 inches in the far northeastern portions of the CWA to 1.25 inches near the Cumberland Plateau. As noted in previous discussions, these QPF values carry a heavy caveat, as totals will certainly fluctuate based on convective activity and exactly where mesoscale bands of heavier rainfall set up.

By Friday, the front is forecast to drop south of the region. While it will initially remain a stationary boundary to our south, showers and storms are forecast to increase again by the weekend as the boundary lifts back northward as a warm front. Temperatures through the period will remain seasonal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Once the front sags south, temperatures will cool a few degrees, allowing overnight lows to drop into the 50s.

In summary, an active and unsettled weather pattern will dominate the region into next week as a stationary boundary stalls across the Commonwealth. While seasonal temperatures persist, repeated rounds of rainfall, heavy at times, will bring an increasing threat for flash flooding and eventual river flooding.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Showers will gradually decline or become more drizzle through the next few hours for most of the forecast area - persisting longest over far southeastern Kentucky. Aviation conditions mainly ranged from VFR to MVFR at TAF issuance, but are expected to worsen to at least MVFR area-wide during the rest of the night and could fall to IFR/LIFR in some areas - particularly KIOB and KSYM. Slow improvement eventually begins from north to south by mid to late afternoon. Winds will be light and variable through the next 24 hours.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.