textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees above normal persist into Saturday.

- A widespread 0.5 to 2.00 inch rainfall is probable through Saturday, with the highest totals forecast in the Cumberland Valley, where locally higher totals cannot be ruled out.

- Gusty rain showers are likely on today, and isolated thunderstorms could produce locally stronger wind gusts. - A colder and drier airmass moves into the region over the weekend and persists into early next week.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 600 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026

The long-term period opens Saturday evening with a deep ~520 dam low near/over Wisconsin with a trough axis extending southward along the Mississippi River. At the surface, a cold front will be departing over the Appalachians while its surface low spins over the Eastern Great Lakes. A secondary cold front extends southwest from the low to along the northern side of the Ohio River and then west-northwestward back into the Northern High Plains.

Colder air will rush into eastern Kentucky Saturday night with the secondary cold frontal passage; LREF mean 850 hPa temperatures fall to -11 to -12C by midday Sunday. Model soundings are indicative of an environment supportive of convective snow showers and possible squalls by late Saturday night and early Sunday morning as the 250 hPa polar jet briefly dips to our south. With any heavier snow showers/squalls, sudden reductions in visibility would likely be the greatest concern. Warm pavement temperatures should prevent any impactful accumulation, though some brief slushiness cannot be ruled out if snowfall rates briefly exceed the pace of the warm pavement to melt the snow. That activity should quickly diminish during the day on Sunday as the trough axis passes. Heights aloft rebound Sunday night, supporting high pressure building across the Tennessee Valley, though broadly cyclonic flow remains aloft. That high then sinks southward Monday night and Tuesday as potent reinforcing vort energy sinks out of northern Canada, causing significant amplification of the trough over the eastern CONUS and supporting a southward sinking cold front Wednesday/Thursday. There is still significant model disparity as to how intense the cold air might be with this system as well as the overall depth of the trough. However, the post- frontal northerly flow could favor a moisture fetch off the Great Lakes in an air mass cold enough for more snow showers.

In sensible weather terms, look for a cool and blustery Sunday with lingering snow showers/flurries for at least the morning, and perhaps even a snow squall for a few locations. It will be cooler with high temperatures only in the mid 30s for most. Clearing skies and dry weather return Sunday night with chilly lows ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s. Fair weather with a warming trend follows for Monday and Tuesday with maximum temperatures returning to near 50F or better by Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances return on Wednesday, switching over to snow Wednesday night and Thursday as temperatures retreat back to near the freezing mark.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026

A warm front currently resides in a roughly north-south fashion across eastern Kentucky currently from near KSYM to just west of KJKL to between K1A6 and KLOZ. This boundary is the leading eastern edge of strong low-level winds providing for LLWS with an approaching cold front that will pass across the area during the daytime hours Friday. In the meantime, lowering clouds and increasing coverage of showers are expected toward 10z-12z for western terminals, moving quickly east across the forecast area, with the arrival of the lower clouds a couple of hours later in the east. With the arrival of showers will come the increasing chance for low-level turbulence and mixing of stronger winds (to as high as 30 kts) just above the surface down to the surface, negating the LLWS wind threat, especially between 11z and 17z. Reductions to MVFR are expected within the showers and a period of prevailing MVFR is also anticipated with shower activity.

With the low level jet transitioning out of the area by 18Z, winds should become less gusty areawide thereafter while shifting to the west and northwest behind the cold frontal passage during the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.