textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- It will continue to be hot through this evening, with maximum heat indices as high as 106 degrees.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times from this afternoon through early next week. Storms today and Saturday could produce damaging wind gusts and torrential downpours.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026

No significant changes of note were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a fresh set of zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 450 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026

The extended portion of the forecast remains on track with better rain chances at the beginning of the period owing to a sfc boundary nearby, or moving through the JKL CWA followed by another extended dry patch on account of 5h ridging building back over the area for much of the upcoming week. Only late in the period does the northern stream appear to push the upper ridge off to the southwest enough to have an impact on the weather for eastern Kentucky - though some model discrepancies creep in by this time lowering overall forecast confidence.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Saturday will see troughing associated with an upper low over the St Lawrence Valley/Quebec, extending into the ne conus to the Mid Atlantic. By late Friday night into Saturday morning, the aforementioned cold front will sag s through much or all of ern Kentucky, providing another focus for showers and storms. There is still significant model disagreement regarding the timing and extent of convective coverage associated with this frontal passage, resulting in NBM PoPs likely being a bit underdone at least at times compared to true rain chances, although uncertainty remains too high to refine these PoPs at this time. Adding to this uncertainty, some deterministic guidance depicts MCS activity or its remnants diving se out of the Midwest during the day Saturday, following the periphery of the ridge. Although rain appears likely at some point on Saturday, the details continue to remain unclear at this time. The NBM continues to keep pops generally low, maximized mainly in the 20-50% range, to account for this. Meanwhile, nly postfrontal winds will keep highs in the upper 80s on Saturday afternoon, with low 90s near the KY/TN line.

Rain chances look lower from Sunday onward as the upper level ridge begins to expand ewd. With surface high pressure building ne of the forecast area, nely winds will keep Sunday's temperatures cooler than at the start of the period (but still quite warm). Dewpoints look to be modestly lower as well (in the 60s rather than the 70s), and this drier pattern will continue through the end of the period. Even so, Labor Day looks to be quite warm, with above average temperatures in the upper 80s expected across the area. Other than this, the weather will be quite pleasant and sunny, with the exception of an isolated diurnally driven thunderstorm in s or se.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026

Overall, VFR conditions will prevail for the bulk of the period. The exceptions will be brief flight category reductions in isolated to widely scattered convection into this evening and more persistent reductions in valley fog late tonight into Saturday morning. Outside of SJS, confidence in convective impacts at the TAF sites was too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Later amendments may be be needed at a few sites. Winds could be strong and erratic near storms, but should be light and variable otherwise.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.