textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected through tonight. Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a possibility for strong to damaging wind gusts. - Excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for the northeast portion of the forecast area through 8 AM EDT Friday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1211 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026

After a very busy evening of flooding and severe wx, have finally had the opportunity to update tonight's forecast. The most significant activity has exited, but there are still a few strong storms near Middlesboro which have yet to leave. Additional storms have developed over southeast OH late this evening. There are some models which suggest this could reach the northeastern part of our area by morning, but it is more likely to stay to our northeast and have played it that way in the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026

The Flood Watch was expanded southwestward to line up with convection developing into the forecast area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 409 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026

The long term period will open amidst building upper level ridging in the southeastern CONUS, while upper level troughing will sit over the Northeast. At the surface, a weak warm front will be lifting northward. Southwesterly to westerly winds on the warm side of this boundary will help to maintain a highly moist environment; LREF mean PW values range from 2 inches in the northeastern forecast area to around 1.8 inches in the southwest, representing climatologically anomalous moisture generally exceeding the 90th percentile. Despite ridging attempting to build in, eastern Kentucky will still find itself on the periphery of this feature. This could allow for additional convective activity to affect the eastern portion of the forecast area. Given moist antecedent conditions and a very favorable environment for torrential rainfall, any sustained convection could be capable of producing flash flooding, with a Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall in place across the majority of the forecast area. Furthermore, given ample moisture and increasingly warm temperatures, apparent temperatures should soar into the upper 90s or perhaps low triple digits at their peak. As an additional consequence of this heat and humidity, a highly unstable environment is expected to build on Saturday afternoon. LREF output suggests mean MUCAPE of over 3000 J/kg; this would be more than enough instability to support strong or perhaps severe convection should storms initiate, although very weak shear in the range of 10 to 20 kts should limit the threat of highly organized and long-lived convection. For now, given weak forcing and the expectation of height rises, PoPs in the range of 20-30% have been maintained for the eastern portions of the forecast area, with lower rain chances in our southwest where ridging influence will be the strongest. That being said, should convection initiate, isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible. Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Marginal (Level 1/5) Risk for severe thunderstorms for most of the area on Saturday (excluding our southwestern counties). Regardless, any convection should cease with the loss of daytime heating.

Sunday should bring drier weather, although things wont stay dry for long. Additional ridging building aloft will make Sunday the hottest day of the week, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the forecast area. Given continued humidity, more widespread triple digit apparent temperatures may be possible Sunday afternoon; current LREF output suggests over a 30 percent chance of exceeding a 100 degree apparent temperature for the northern portions of our forecast area by only 2 PM on Sunday. Thankfully, this heat will be short lived. Additional upper level troughing will be digging into the Great Lakes region by Sunday afternoon, and a shortwave rotating through the base of this trough should work to flatten the upper level ridge somewhat by Sunday night. Meanwhile, a surface low will be located near Michigan, with a cold front extending to the southwest. As the system translates eastward, this front will approach Kentucky by early Monday morning, bringing the next round of rain. As in previous days, moisture will be quite high (with westerly flow supporting PW values generally in the range of 1.8-1.9 inches, approximately the 90th percentile), and at least isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. Thus, WPC has placed the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area in a Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Monday. The magnitude of the flash flood risk will remain fairly dependent on how saturated soils are going into the event, in addition to the timing of this frontal passage (which itself will modulate how widespread any convection is); therefore, uncertainty remains high. Regardless, rain appears likely on Monday.

Following the frontal passage, temperatures will be much more tolerable. With less influence from the upper level ridge, MaxTs will generally range from the mid to upper 80s across the forecast area, with the hottest temperatures expected to the southwest. Moisture will be noticeably lower too, with dewpoints generally falling into the upper 60s across the forecast area. That being said, the general pattern will still be fairly active. Upper level troughing over the Great Lakes will persist, while ridging will dominate across the southern CONUS, with models generally depicting the ridge axis in the Four Corners region or slightly farther east in western Texas. This will place eastern Kentucky in a region of either quasi zonal or northwest flow aloft, depending on which model you believe; either way, this will open the door for additional rain chances through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are found at the TAF sites early this morning. Elsewhere, fog will probably affect some of the favored valley locations, potentially leading to localized IFR or worse. Otherwise, attention turns to additional shower and thunderstorm chances initially over northeast Kentucky early this morning spreading again across the remainder of the forecast area during the daylight hours. Convection could bring brief reductions to MVFR or worse at times and PROB30s have been added during the time periods of greatest concern.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>113-119-120.