textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow-moving system keeps daily shower and storm chances, along with some heavy rain potential, in the forecast from Sunday through Tuesday.

- Somewhat drier and warmer weather returns Wednesday through Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 130 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as tweaking of the PoPs per the current mosaic radar and near term CAMs. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFS, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 757 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026

Isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunders are noted over the JKL CWA at update issuance. Looking upstream, a line of showers and thunderstorms is situated along an approaching occluded front extending from Cincinnati to Tompkinsville. Additional convection, some of it supercellular, is also lifting northeast across Tennessee's Cumberland Plateau. The parameter space from the SPC Mesoanalysis shows generally 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE near and west of the I-75 corridor, with weaker instability further east. Effective shear remains marginal at 25 to 30 knots. This combination of ingredients should be supportive of organized linear convection but could also sustain a few weak supercells as well. In spite of the relatively modest deep layer shear, southerly 850 hPA flow at 25 to 30 knots is supporting 100 to 200 m2/s2 of ESRH, leading to enlarged low-level hodographs in a low LCL environment. Thus there is some concern that should a supercell become better organized for a brief time, it could produce a weak tornado. Additionally, the 0-3km shear vectors are at about 30 knots from the southwest; therefore any linear segment that becomes more perpendicular (oriented more northwest- southeast) to that shear vector could generate a brief spin-up tornado. The greater chance for this QLCS-type tornado would be over the Bluegrass, given overall occluded front orientation.

Aside from the severe weather potential, PWATs nearing 2.0 inches along with skinny CAPE profiles and a deep saturated warm layer will support high rainfall rates. While overall cell motions are progressive, those locations which experience multiple torrential downpours could eventually have isolated flash flooding concerns.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 557 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026

The long wave pattern will remain stagnant and amplified over the CONUS next week. Two strong upper level high pressure systems will be centering over Bermuda and the Four Corners region with time. Meanwhile, a slow-moving trough will initially be laid out near or just west of the Appalachians, keeping unsettled weather in place across the region early next week. The trough will dampen by mid- week, as higher geopotential heights spread west towards the Eastern Seaboard from the Bermuda high center. In tandem, higher geopotential heights will work east of the Mississippi River from the Four Corners high center. Additionally, cyclonic flow will overspread the north central CONUS from a deeper upper level low that will be gyring over Hudson Bay. This will likely result in any frontal systems remaining generally north of the Ohio Valley into next weekend, and while diurnally-influenced PoPs will remain in the forecast, coverage will likely be more scattered in nature for the latter half of next week.

Eastern Kentucky will start out under the influence of an upper level trough, keeping higher rain chances in place through at least Tuesday. PWATs will not be excessively high (LREF mean values of 50-75th percentile of climatology); however, high freezing levels and slower storm motions of 10 to 15 kts will keep at least a marginal heavy rainfall threat in place at times. Temperatures will average near seasonal normals for early August, with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the mid 60s, with elevated humidity levels. As we come more under the influence of the ridging aloft, rain chances will generally decrease, with convection becoming more scattered in nature each day, especially from Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures will creep up a bit through next weekend, peaking in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will also moderate through the upper 60s to near 70, with higher humidity levels continuing across the area.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026

A slow-moving occluded front is working deeper into the JKL CWA. This will push a broken band of showers and thunderstorms through eastern parts of the area early this morning. Towards dawn, low stratus or fog may impact a few of the TAF terminals. Additional showers and storms are expected to redevelop for most TAF sites by midday. Away from any storms, winds will generally be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.