textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A colder and drier air mass continues to move into the region, and it will linger into early next week. - Frost is expected this weekend, with freezing temperatures also possible. The coldest conditions will be in the valleys early in the mornings on Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1055 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026

Previous forecast thinking remains largely on track this morning, although observational trends suggest that stratocumulus-type cloud cover may outperforming previous expectations. Current satellite imagery reveals a deck of stratocu along and north of the KY-80 corridor, with the greatest coverage generally in counties closer to the WV/VA state lines. A localized enhancement is noted along the Pottsville Escarpment, likely due to the persistence of NW low level flow there. This morning's clouds were not captured by any of the available forecast guidance, so grids were manually edited to include them. More widespread sky cover is noted to the north of the CWA in Ohio, closer to the parent low pressure system. Here in Eastern Kentucky, dry/cold air advection around the back side of that synoptic low (via that NW flow) should keep the cloud coverage shallow and below the broken threshold this afternoon. Diurnal mixing further reinforces that notion, and we will need to monitor resultant trends in this afternoon's dewpoints closely. The magnitude of the drier air that mixes down later today, will help determine the areal extent of frost/freeze conditions later tonight. If we see widespread dpt readings in the lower 30s this afternoon, those hazardous conditions could reach beyond the typical sheltered cold spots. Otherwise, valley fog could locally insulate overnight lows and inhibit the frost forecast. Model guidance has struggled with similar set ups in recent weeks, so it will be interesting to see how those trends unfold in the coming hours. Stay tuned!

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 428 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026

The long-term period begins Sunday night with a series of embedded shortwaves within the northern jet stream. Of relevance, a broad upper-level low will be positioned over Ontario, with an upstream trough digging near the northern Rockies. Cyclonic flow around the Canadian low will maintain west-northwest flow aloft across eastern Kentucky.

Conditions will remain dry across eastern Kentucky through Wednesday as high pressure dominates the region. Sunday and Monday nights, temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid-30s, with colder spots dipping into the lower 30s. Recent NBM guidance has exhibited a cold bias, so temperatures were blended with higher-resolution models to nudge values upward, bringing the forecast back within the 25th to 75th percentile range of overall guidance. Frost and localized freeze conditions will be most likely in these colder spots, while patchy river valley fog will also be possible overnight.

Temperatures will warm significantly Tuesday and Wednesday as upper-level heights rise and surface high pressure shifts across the Southeast. Under mostly clear skies and light westerly flow aloft, efficient daytime heating within a dry air mass will support afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s both days (5-10 degrees above seasonal normals).

The pattern turns much colder and more unsettled late in the week. A vigorous northern-stream shortwave diving out of western Canada will carve out a deep, anomalous longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS. An attendant cold front will sweep through the Commonwealth late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing increasing clouds and increasing rain chances.

The core of the upper trough is modeled to move overhead on Friday, pushing 500 mb heights below the 5th climatological percentile and ushering in a brisk Canadian air mass on breezy northwest winds. Highs Friday and Saturday may struggle to climb out of the 40s, with overnight lows potentially dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s. With model soundings suggesting steep low-level lapse rates alongside northwest upslope flow, lingering showers could mix with or transition to the first flurries of the season across the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky Thursday night into Friday before surface high pressure restores dry conditions for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 635 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance time, with the exception of the far north and far south where isolated MVFR ceilings were observed with patchy low stratus. Localized valley fog with IFR or worse condition this morning is still not expected to impact TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to return areawide late in the morning and last through the end of the period. A low-VFR stratus or stratocumulus cloud deck may develop this afternoon during peak heating at about 3.5 kft to 4 kft agl, with the highest potential for a period of broken ceilings near/along the West Virginia border. North to northwest winds at less than 10 kts are expected until around 00z Sunday before becoming light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.