textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights holds through the end of the work week.

- The next likelihood of rain is not until Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 356 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026

The extended period opens with quiet conditions, fair skies, and light winds through the remainder of the work week as surface high pressure remains near eastern Kentucky through Thursday before starting to shift towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Friday. This will keep dry weather intact across the region, with unseasonably warm afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on both Thursday and Friday. Clear skies and light winds will favor ridge-valley temperature splits each night. Temperatures each night should drop into the mid-to-upper 40s in the coldest, sheltered valleys, while remaining in the lower 50s elsewhere.

A significant pattern shift unfolds over the weekend as an anomalous upper-level ridge amplifies across the Eastern US, raising 500 mb heights over the Commonwealth toward 584-588 dam by Saturday. The vast majority of the JKL CWA will remain warm and mostly dry through Saturday afternoon, with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. However, all eyes remain on a developing tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf (Invest 92L). As low-level flow turns southerly around the departing high, deep moisture associated with Invest 92L will begin creeping northward. PWATs will climb toward 1.0-1.2 inches near the Tennessee border by Saturday evening, bringing low-end shower and isolated thunderstorm chances into far southern Kentucky into the evening and overnight.

As the system lifts northeast through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, rain is likely across eastern Kentucky through Sunday afternoon, accompanied by isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances. Rainfall amounts remain highly uncertain, as there is a great deal of uncertainty in regards to the strength and positioning of the system, and how it might interact with an approaching surface cold front pushed by northern stream energy passing through the Great Lakes. Broad southwesterly flow aloft between the Atlantic ridge and western troughing will help channel the tropical moisture plume from the Gulf low into the Ohio Valley. This will surge PWAT values across the JKL CWA Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon. Forecasted PWATs currently fall within the 90th percentile. However, the latest 12Z GFS guidance has trended downward for rainfall across the area. PWATs do drop off noticeably Monday into Tuesday as the primary moisture plume axis shifts east of the area. As a cold front sags slowly into the region, shower chances will linger into early next week, though decreasing moisture efficiency will mitigate the threat for heavy rainfall after Sunday. Extensive cloud cover and rain will keep daytime highs in the low-to-mid 70s Sunday and Monday. Height rises and fair skies will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s Tuesday, while overnight lows cool into the mid-to-upper 50s throughout the long term period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026

Valley fog will affect the JKL forecast area overnight and early Wednesday, especially in southeast KY, bringing localized IFR or worse conditions. TAF sites are not forecast to be affected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.