textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase to end the weekend, followed by additional chances at midweek.

- Patchy frost is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning in deeper rural valleys and hollows - mainly away from mainstem rivers.

UPDATE

Issued at 235 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026

Valley fog has become quite prevalent along the rivers, lakes, and larger creeks generally south of the Mtn Pkwy per satellite imagery. Also, per KY Mesonet and personal weather station networks, valley locations were already or at or falling below forecast min T in some areas. Adjustments down a couple of degrees for min T were made for these areas and areal extent and intensity of fog was aligned with recent recent trends.

UPDATE Issued at 737 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026

No major changes made to the forecast as it is largely on track. Just incorporated the latest surface obs. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 220 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026

The period begins Monday morning with a secondary cold front accompanied by showers exiting south and east as a shortwave trough moves across the area within an overall broad longwave trough.

A cooler and drier air mass moves into the region from the north as high pressure builds in for the remainder of the daytime hours Monday. Though models have trended slightly warmer than 24 hours, Monday looks to be on the cool side with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Monday night is still looking rather chilly for mid-May as surface pressure settles in over Ohio. Big questions remain as to how much low-level dry air can move into the area and whether winds fully decouple near ridgetop level. A slightly drier air mass with full decoupling will introduce the possibility of patchy frost in the outlying hollows away from mainstem streams and rivers, which are more likely to see the typical fog in such setups.

A modest warm-up is expected Tuesday as shortwave ridging moves overhead in northwesterly flow aloft, but unsettled weather returns Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Instability will be rapidly diminishing as this system moves through, so while thunder chances are in the forecast currently, would not be surprised to see this reduced to just showers in future forecasts.

After another brief modest cooldown Thursday, heights/thicknesses rise significantly Friday into Saturday, signaling a stronger warm- up into next weekend. Though there are significant model discrepancies yielding low confidence in the forecast details by this time, low-end PoPs around 10 to 15 percent are indicated by the NBM as models hint at a potential disturbance and/or front near the area with some potential instability.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at issuance time. Some valley fog with reductions to IFR and in some cases lower was present at non TAF site locations. At this point, this is not expected to affect the TAF sites. A sagging cold front will bring small chance for convection from about 18Z through the end of the period. Recent trends support the highest chance at KSJS where a PROB30 group was used for Sunday afternoon to early evening. Brief MVFR reductions are possible with this activity. Winds will remain shower chances toward the end of the TAF window but mainly to KSJS. Winds will remain at generally less than 10KT through the period. Light and variable winds will prevail through about 14Z, followed by southwest to west winds that shift to the northwest areawide through around 00Z. Winds remain light during the last 6 hours of the period, trending toward the north. A disturbance interacting with the front may bring greater coverage of convection and higher chances for sub VFR conditions just after the end of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.