textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog and low clouds will clear out by mid morning.

- A more active weather pattern sets up early next week, with multiple chances for widespread showers and storms from Monday night through Wednesday.

- Severe weather potential remains masked by forecast uncertainty here in Eastern Kentucky, but a stronger line of storms is poised to approach the I-75 corridor early on Tuesday morning.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible later on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, and these will bring highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once a frontal boundary finally clears the area late next week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids including pushing the clouds deeper into the CWA from the northeast. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026

The brief ridge of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will be squeezed out of the area Monday night into Tuesday. A relatively quiet Monday during the day will become active overnight, with showers and thunderstorms initiating in Western Kentucky on Monday evening. As these storms progress east they may organize into a QLCS overnight.

Strong southwest winds ahead of the line will be aided by a 50-60 knot LLJ which will support more effective moisture returns into our forecast area. LREF PWATs from the 12Z ensemble run climb up towards the 1.2-1.3 inch range by the time the line arrives on Tuesday morning. Model wind profiles suggest the better sheared environment is in the northwestern 2/3rds of the CWA by Tuesday morning. The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather on Day 2, covering 12Z Monday morning through 12Z Tuesday morning. However the threat is towards the end of the above period, and moreso Monday after midnight, through Tuesday morning. This outlook primarily exists for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gust potential, but the most likely solution is that a weakening line of storms becomes elevated in nature as it approaches the I-75 corridor. The greatest overlap between favorable ingredients for severe weather is not currently over our part of Kentucky for this first wave of active weather, but regardless, we will be closely monitoring the evolution of the upstream convection on Monday evening.

The weather Tuesday will largely be dependent on what lingers or remains from the overnight convection. Any remaining outflow boundaries could act as initiation points for additional convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. The surface cold front is modeled to stall over Western Kentucky Tuesday, leading to an increase in the day's temperature forecast. With the strong LLJ out the southwest bringing warm moist air into the area through Monday night, overnight temperatures are expected to remain elevated in the upper 50s to low 60s. Breezy prefrontal southwesterly winds will remain in place across most of the forecast area into the evening hours. This allows afternoon highs to climb towards the upper 70s/lower 80s again, especially in SE KY. With southwesterly winds remaining through Tuesday, dew points rise into the upper 50s/low to mid 60s through the afternoon. A shortwave does look to propagate through the flow during the afternoon, which may mess with the diurnal temperature curves Tuesday afternoon.

LREF mean soundings across southern Kentucky on Tuesday evening resolve approximately 1000 J/kg of CAPE and 40 knots of effective bulk shear. The related hodographs are curved in the lower levels, suggesting that a HSLC (high shear, low CAPE) type set-up may come to fruition with this second wave of activity. During the last long term SPC forecast package, there was too much compounding forecast uncertainty leftover from Monday night's risk for a Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook this far north. However, ML/AI/Analog guidance continues to tick Tuesday's PM severe weather potential upwards, and interests should continue to monitor for forecast updates. Confidence is increasing that an active baroclinic zone will set up through midweek, and if convective activity isn't realized on Tuesday, then Wednesday may come into play.

As guidance has trended slower with Monday's first wave of convection and stronger with Tuesday's second, it has collectively kept the parent boundary in the vicinity of the forecast area on Wednesday. With quasi zonal flow aloft, the forcing for any additional midweek storms lies in mesoscale details that are hard to pinpoint at the extended temporal range. However, the 12z LREF ensemble data suggests that there may be conditionally favorable parameter spacing for another round of stronger thunderstorms on Wednesday. The likely stationary nature of the frontal boundary and long/straight ensemble mean hodographs mean that this risk is likely marginal, but the 12z deterministic models placed Eastern Kentucky in the vicinity of the left exit region of a zonal 300mb jet streak around the base of a digging upper level trough. If the resultant synoptic lift overlaps with the warm side of that boundary and mesoscale convective enhancements within our CWA, some stronger (potentially splitting) cells cannot be ruled out. At the very least though, this set up will lead to some highly beneficial rainfall.

Storm total QPF from Monday evening through Wednesday night generally sits between 1.10 inches in the Northeast/Big Sandy Basin to 1.70 inches in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. The model blend used to populate these grids currently sits outside of the temporal range of the higher-resolution CAMS, so expect more spatial variability and the potential for locally-enhanced totals in the final storm total QPEs. The LREF Ensemble probabilities generally follow the same lower to higher NE to SW gradient when it comes to receiving at least 1 inch of measurable rainfall over that 60 hour time frame. The highest exceedance probabilities (around 75%) are currently in the Cumberland River Basin, with values closer to 55% in our northeastern counties. Given that the KJKL and KLOZ climate record sites are both currently below their climatological rainfall averages for the month of April and the year to date, this rain is welcome to fall. Given the potential for convectively-enhanced higher amounts and the signal for multiple rounds of convection, WPC has placed southern counties in a Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The dry ground should be able to soak most of this rainfall up, and widespread river flooding is unlikely in the various hydro ensembles, but nuisance-type ponding of water is possible in the typical areas of poor drainage. Ideally, all of this activity is able to put a dent in the widespread D1 (moderate) to D2 (severe) drought currently observed across Kentucky.

Deeper mid to upper level troughing digs into the Ohio River Valley headed into the weekend. Strengthening WNW flow aloft will work to advect a cool, continental airmass into the forecast area, and the aforementioned, stubborn frontal boundary is poised to finally shift out of the CWA on Thursday. Precipitation chances and sky cover tapers off as drier air filters in throughout the column; they give way to highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. These readings are below climatological norms for Eastern Kentucky at the end of April, and reinforcing shots of colder air arrive in the region as shortwave disturbances rotate around the base of the broader troughing to kick off the month of May. While these disturbances may yield additional precipitation chances, increasing model spread makes it difficult to pinpoint timing and magnitude details. Guidance previously depicted a southern stream system brushing the CWA next weekend, but the 12z suite backed off this idea. The time- lagged NBM ensemble smooths out the PoPs related to that system and the troughing perturbations into low end chances to close out the forecast period, but the more impactful sensible weather is likely to be observed on the thermometers at the start of may. The overarching synoptic pattern favors below normal temperatures for the first days of May, potentially reaching much below normal readings on May 2nd and 3rd. The CPC extended-range hazard outlook is centered on these colder temperatures due to their potential to cause a frost, and their 8-14 day temperature outlook highlights a 50-60% chance of below normal temperatures across the greater Ohio River Valley. Those with interests sensitive to frost (such as agricultural crop producers or recreational gardeners) are encouraged to monitor for updates as the calendar turns to May.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026

Conditions are MVFR for most TAF sites at the 12Z issuance thanks to a large area of low stratus clouds advecting from the northeast. Fog, low clouds, and/or stratus look to mix out between 13Z and 16Z allowing for a return to VFR through the rest of the period. Generally, winds will be light and variable, or north to east at less than 10 kts, through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.