textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A light, mainly patchy, frost is possible again early this morning and tonight, primarily in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

- Expect near-normal temperatures throughout the work week, with mostly clear skies and overnight ridge-valley temperature splits likely to continue through at least next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 130 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026

High pressure was in place across the OH Valley and Commonwealth this evening. This was leading to light and variable winds. Temperatures in valleys have dropped off into the mid to upper 40s on average thus far, with temperatures generally in the low to mid 50s elsewhere. Forecast lows for tonight remain on track and only some adjustments of hourly temperatures toward observations were made at this time. Valley fog, mainly along the rivers and larger tributary creeks, should again develop overnight, while patchy frost remains possible for the sheltered rural valleys/typical cold spots.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 412 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026

There is reasonably high confidence in dry weather with normal to slightly above normal temperatures through the period.

In terms of our local area, there is good model agreement for the big picture until near the end of the forecast period. The period begins with a weak upper level low and modest troughing off the East Coast, and strong upper level ridging over the central CONUS, especially the plains. With time, the East Coast troughing will further weaken and the ridging will shift eastward as troughing advances into the western CONUS, with the ridge reaching us during the weekend. Until the ridge arrives, we will have a dry northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure or ridging based mainly to our north will dominate our area. The flow aloft could support a weak and dying cold front to move south toward the Ohio Valley late in the week, but it will probably not get here, and even if it does it would not have any real effect. Even so, no return to meaningful warm air advection is foreseen either. One model difference to note-- the NAM is much colder with surface temperatures (mainly highs) than the GFS or ECMWF on Wednesday and Thursday. The NAM generates very low and shallow stratus in cold air advection and would suggest high temperatures as much as 15-20 degrees colder than the GFS or ECMWF. Considering the lack of precip or significant systems passing through, this scenario looks highly suspect and is being discounted.

Larger scale model differences finally become more significant early next week in terms of the demise of the upper ridge and how troughing evolves as it advances toward us from the west or northwest. However, in terms of actual effects on our local weather, the differences don't appear to become significant until after this long term period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026

Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the region through the TAF period. This will lead to light easterly to northerly winds with only a few high clouds today. VFR condition will largely prevail. The exception will be valley fog along rivers and larger tributaries through 14Z, that will likely be locally dense with reductions to IFR or lower. The fog is not expected to affect the TAF sites with any visibility reductions.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.