textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall is ongoing across eastern Kentucky this afternoon, with isolated embedded thunderstorms. This activity will continue through the evening before exiting east of the state tonight.

- A series of cold fronts will pass through the area between tonight and Friday. Together, they will usher a drier but colder airmass into the region heading into the weekend. - Sunday and Monday mornings could see frosty conditions across portions of eastern Kentucky, along with some freeze potential. The coldest temperatures will be in the deeper valleys.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 352 PM EST WED NOV 4 2026

The extended period of the forecast begins on Friday, as an upper level low will be sinking southward from the Upper Great Lakes region into the northern Ohio Valley throughout the day. The ECMWF shows some precipitation on the southern extent of this low, reaching northern Kentucky and possibly our far northern CWA. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps us more dry other than some very brief and light rain potential in the evening. This run of the NBM included increased cloud cover and some very slight pops across the northern CWA from 12 to 18Z, but nothing more. Will be interested to see how the models, and therefore the NBM, trend with the next few runs - as it could increase the pops throughout the day, or could end up being a dry day across our CWA. Either way, the impacts from any rain will be minimal and should only affect the northern CWA.

The upper level low will then continue to track east-southeast towards the New England coast through the weekend, placing Kentucky in the northerly flow portion of the system by Saturday. This, coupled with strong high pressure and northerly flow at the surface, will result in clearing skies and also a strong push of CAA. While the current grids don't reflect it just yet, expect a decently strong ridge/valley split in temperatures on both Saturday night and Sunday night, with locations, especially deeper valleys, dropping into the 20s. If this pans out, we will see our first hard freeze of the season, effectively ending growing season.

Surface high pressure and weak NW flow aloft will remain in place across the region through the rest of the period, Monday through Wednesday, bringing with it dry and sunny skies, along with light winds. Temperatures will warm ever so slightly after Sunday, but should generally remain in the 60s for highs and 30s for lows.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 111 PM EST WED NOV 4 2026

Conditions vary between MVFR and VFR criteria at the time of issuance, but MVFR conditions should spread to all terminals as a cold front approaches the area this evening. This front will bring widespread rain showers to the region, with occasional vsby reductions and gusty winds likely within the heavier pockets of rainfall. Thunder looks most likely at KSME, where a locally greater corridor of instability may emerge immediately ahead of frontal passage. Once the front clears, southerly winds should shift towards more of a westerly orientation and weaken/become less gusty. The frontal passage should bring about an end to the meaningful rain chances this evening, but low stratus clouds are forecast to hang around overnight. Patchy fog also cannot be ruled out given the wet grounds, and this combination of fog and low stratus should keep MVFR to IFR conditions in place overnight (especially at southern and eastern terminals). The low clouds should gradually lift and scatter out tomorrow morning, with KIOB likely the first TAF site to return to VFR conditions.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.