textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of shower and thunderstorms are anticipated over the next seven days, including the holiday weekend.

- The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from drought conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 820 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

With the outflow boundary having exited our area, any remaining convection should remain well below severe standards, and convective coverage is expected to decrease for the next few hours with the loss of daytime heating. Thus, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch was cancelled early. Beyond that, temperature and dewpoint grids were nudged to fit observations and account for rain cooled air across eastern Kentucky.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 618 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified and stagnant through the middle of next week. An upper level ridge will remain anchored over the southeastern CONUS. Broad troughing will reign over the central CONUS through the first part of the holiday weekend, before deeper troughing moves in from the eastern Pacific, and a cutoff low moves onshore over the West Coast early next week. Downstream, either a REX block emerges, or at least sharper ridging becomes aligned from south central Canada through the Upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and into the Southeast. For eastern Kentucky, the wetter pattern will continue into early next week, combatting the ongoing drought conditions across the Commonwealth. Some isolated flash flooding will also be possible at times, but only if locations see repeated rounds of more significant rainfall, given the well below normal streamflows currently seen across the area.

On Friday, widespread showers, along with scattered thunderstorms, will fill in across the area, as a short wave trough moves northeast from the lower/middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, low pressure will deepen and follow suit, gradually escorting a warm front back north of eastern Kentucky through early Saturday. Widespread PoPs will continue on Saturday, as the aforementioned surface low's cold front creeps southeast towards our area. There remains uncertainty with exactly how the pattern evolves into next week. In general, PoPs will likely become more diurnally influenced with time, as the remnant frontal boundary gradually weakens and becomes more diffuse each successive day after Monday. As such, blended PoPs may be too aggressive, especially Tuesday through Wednesday.

Temperatures throughout the extended portion of the forecast will average slightly above normal, with lows mainly in the 60s, and highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

Convection was ongoing across much of the area at issuance time with VFR in many locations, while reductions to MVFR if not IFR or locally lower were occurring in or following the stronger storms or most persistent activity. IFR or lower ceilings had slipped into areas north of KSYM and KIOB as well. A cold front has dropped south to near the I-64 corridor, while a prefrontal outflow boundary has moved into VA and this occurrence should limit the intensity and perhaps coverage of storms behind it over the first 6 hours of the period if not longer. As the front sags southeast, MVFR and IFR will spread to the TAF sites through about 09Z and the remainder of the area through about 13Z. Mainly MVFR and IFR should then remain through the period, with some improvement in categories possible late in the period. Rounds of showers and isolated to scattered storms are anticipated in the vicinity of the front through the period, with chances decreasing from north to south as the front sags further south of the area. Outside of thunderstorms winds will generally be light; however, thunderstorms could create gusty and erratic winds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.