textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Humid and often wet weather will continue through mid week.

- Rain should become less prevalent late in the week as drier air arrives from the north.

UPDATE

Issued at 1125 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

A weakly unstable atmosphere remains across eastern Kentucky late this evening with showers and thunderstorms continuing to develop. A stationary front continues roughly along/parallel to the Mountain Parkway. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is possible overnight with a gradual downtick in activity.

Hourly PoPs and T/Tds have been updated through the remainder of the overnight period, with not much in the way of any significant changes in the overall forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 647 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

Thunderstorms have been developing within an overall moderately unstable environment with some backing of surface winds near a boundary and instability gradient stretching west-east across the northern half of the forecast area. We will be watching this gradient and boundary closely for the potential for an isolated brief spin-up tornado, but the overall threat is low (i.e., marginal) for any severe weather.

Otherwise, hourly grids and updated PoPs were refreshed with the latest model data through this evening, with little if any overall change to the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

In the days prior to Thursday, an area of low pressure over the Ozarks will feature a stationary boundary oriented across Kentucky, providing shower and storms chances to the area. With strong high pressure off the Atlantic coastline this area of low pressure struggles to progress eastward, eventually doing so Thursday.

The stationary boundary moves south through the area as a cold front early Thursday. Winds become northerly for the remainder of the extended forecast period. In addition to the post-frontal wind shift, drier air and lower PWATs return to the area. An upper level trough digs southeast from Eastern Canada through New England Friday. Models continue to hint at a weak wave embedded within the upper level flow aloft, upstream of the closed low moving across the New England area. This may lead to isolated showers or thunderstorm chances south of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor, Friday afternoon.

Saturday, an area of low pressure stalls south of the area in the Tennessee region, a dry cold front is expected to dig south out of the Ohio Valley from the closed low departing the New England area. Eastern Kentucky may see some showers and thunderstorms , mainly south of I-64, most concentrated along the KY-TN stateline. With high pressure building into the Ohio Valley Sunday and beyond, rain and thunderstorm chances will slowly diminish each day with isolated to scattered chances along the KY-TN stateline Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures remain mild through next Tuesday, with highs and lows near normal overall (mid to upper 70s for highs, upper 50s for lows). Diminishing rain chances transition to a cooler and drier regime towards the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026

Cloudy but mainly VFR conditions were reported across the JKL forecast area at the start of the period. However, there were some pockets of sub-VFR conditions present. Precipitation had tapered off. Decreasing clouds are expected from west to east overnight, but this could allow for fog and/or low cloud development with IFR or worse conditions, especially where significant rainfall occurred late Tuesday or during the night (which is mainly northwest of a line from around Somerset to Sandy Hook). Any fog or low clouds will dissipate on Wednesday morning, leaving VFR conditions area wide for a time. As heating occurs during the day, scattered showers/thunderstorms will probably develop in the afternoon, but pinning down where/when is not possible. A generalized PROB30 was used in TAFs for an extended period to account for this. There is a higher probability of showers/thunderstorms moving into the area from the north on Wednesday night in association with a cold front. IFR conditions are forecast to arrive from the north after frontal passage, but confidence in this and its timing is not very high.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for KYZ044-050>052.