textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain continues this morning, tapering off from west to east this afternoon and evening. Expect total rainfall amounts between a half-inch and one inch, with the highest totals in the Cumberland Basin.

- A significant warming trend begins Monday. Temperatures will reach the 60s area-wide by Tuesday afternoon and could hit the lower 70s in many areas by Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

The long-term period opens Monday evening with a broad upper- level ridge over the Central CONUS and a surface ridge displaced further east from New England to the lower Mississippi Valley. Low-level return flow draws an unseasonably warm air mass into the Ohio Valley on the western periphery of the surface ridge. Additionally, an upper-level trough coming ashore the West Coast early in the week leads to unsettled weather for eastern Kentucky by late week.

For the interim period, the upper level ridge axis will shift eastward to over the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday while a potent shortwave trough ejects northeast out of the Pacific trough. The ridge then shifts southeast Wednesday while this initial shortwave supports a surface low tracking from southeast Montana to the Great Lakes before becoming vertically stacked. The system's warm conveyor belt jet passes over eastern Kentucky early Wednesday with GFS BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum transfer reaching 25 to 30 kts. The remaining trough energy ejects east-northeast later in the week, supporting secondary cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado Wednesday with the new low tracking north of the Ohio River Thursday night. This places eastern Kentucky under a warm conveyor belt jet again Thursday, with 850 hPa temperatures reaching 10 to 11 C. The system's trailing cold front passes through Thursday night/Friday with an area-wide rainfall expected. Overall amounts still appear light. A cooler and drier air mass spills into eastern Kentucky next weekend but there is still substantial disagreement as to the magnitude of the cold.

In sensible weather terms, expect fair, seasonable weather Monday night with lows from near 30F in cold hollows to the mid 40s on ridgetops. Tuesday remains pleasant with highs in the lower to middle 60s. The warming trend continues Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 60s and upper 60s to lower 70s, respectively. Breezy conditions develop during the day both Wednesday and Thursday, with southwest winds likely gusting to between 20 and 30 mph both days. A slight chance for showers exists Wednesday north of I-64, followed by widespread rain Thursday night through Friday. Cooler temperatures closer to seasonal averages are likely follow heading into next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 627 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

TAFs are a combination of VFR and MVFR with this issuance; however, as showers continue to increase in coverage and the surface low approaches the area, lowering CIGs and VSBY will bring terminals down to MVFR, IFR and possible LIFR by this evening. Showers will persist through the day before tapering off this evening from west to east but lingering low clouds and fog will lead to IFR and possible LIFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF window. Winds are forecast to be light and variable through the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.