textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day of cold temperatures and potential light snow for some locations is ahead for Sunday. The light snow accumulation should occur primarily near/northeast of Highway 15, if it materializes.

- A dramatic warming trend begins Monday. After a chilly weekend, temperatures will soar to the upper 50s and mid-60s by Tuesday afternoon as the region thaws out.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 235 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

The forecast period begins under the influence of surface high pressure situated to the northeast of the region. A dry surface wave and associated frontal boundaries will approach from the southwest. The primary perturbation is progged to track along a warm front draped across central Canada. As this Canadian feature shifts eastward, the dry perturbation will lift through the area Monday night into Tuesday. Before this transition, Monday will remain dry due to the lingering surface high. With low-level flow already established from the southwest, a warming trend will commence. Monday highs will reflect this, reaching the upper 50s across the Cumberland Plateau and mid-40s toward the northeast. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend; however, in areas where clearing persists, sheltered valleys may drop into the mid-20s, while most other locations remain in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

By Tuesday, the region will sit behind the dry warm front leading to a robust WAA regime taking hold. Although the area is expected to remain mostly dry to start the day, temperatures in the wake of the warm front will climb into the upper 50s to mid-60s. This significant warming precedes an approaching synoptic feature, specifically a shortwave trough ejecting from the Desert Southwest toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday evening, PoP chances increase as the warm front lifts north through the area. While the primary surface feature is forecast to remain south of the region, the associated precipitation shield will persist through Wednesday. Temperatures will largely support rain, though the diurnal curve may allow snow to mix in late Wednesday night.

A second perturbation is expected to follow a similar track on Thursday, maintaining precipitation chances through Friday, with another feature arriving by Saturday. Temperatures will gradually decline from the Tuesday peak, settling into the 40s from Wednesday through the end of the period. While these values primarily support rain, nocturnal cooling will bring temperatures near freezing each night, allowing for a wintry mix through sunrise. Little to no accumulation is expected, though an isolated dusting cannot be ruled out where localized snowfall rates are higher.

In summary, the period begins dry with a warming trend through midweek. This trend halts as a series of surface waves traverse the Tennessee Valley, bringing repeated chances for rain starting Tuesday night, with a transition to a rain-snow mix overnight before returning to rain during the day.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and are expected to continue through tonight. An upper level disturbance will bring increasing high clouds overnight followed by the potential for a narrow NW-SE oriented band of snow on Sunday morning, mostly likely northeast of an KI35 to KIOB line. Confidence in the placement of the snow band remains low, so only included PROB30s for -SN and MVFR with this TAF issuance. Winds will be northerly under 10 kts today, becoming light and variable tonight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.