textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms persist across the entire area throughout the week.

- The greatest rain chances are through Wednesday and again Friday. The potential for multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall poses a risk for isolated flooding in this time frame.

- Warm and rather humid conditions are expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 158 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

Isolated mainly light showers continue across eastern Kentucky early this morning and are slowly propagating east with time. This activity should be little more than a nuisance for affected areas. Upstream, a more substantial area of showers and thunderstorms is noted west of a Louisville to Nashville line at 550z and CAMs show the remnants of this activity lifting ENE and eventually reaching locations near and west of the Escarpment (Mount Sterling, Somerset, Monticello, etc.) toward daybreak (~10-11z). If the activity remains semi-organized, will need to monitor heavy rain potential.

UPDATE Issued at 1053 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026

Continued to make adjustments to PoPs through the late morning Tuesday based on latest 00z CAMS and observed trends. Removed any mention of thunder from the grids for the remainder of tonight. Otherwise, a quick refresh of hourly T/Td grids was made utilizing the latest hourly observations as the initialization of the hourly forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026

Adjusted PoPs based on a blend of models through tonight, mainly to put a floor of about 20 percent through each of the overnight. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with just a refresh of latest hourly T/Td grids.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 424 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified through early next week. Ridging will remain sprawled across the southern third of the CONUS through Friday, while an upper level low takes shape across south central Canada, allowing for broad troughing to work east across the northern third of the CONUS. This trough will then expand further south this weekend and into early next week, although to what degree, remains uncertain at this point. This generally results in a continuation of periods of unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky through the period, with particularly humid conditions in place through Friday.

500 mb heights will be increasing across eastern Kentucky during the day on Wednesday, with rain chances likely decreasing after the morning hours. Temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 80s. Relatively lower rain chances will continue through Thursday, as we remain under the influence of short wave ridging. Did add in some valley fog Wednesday night, given the balmy conditions and mostly clear skies. Also lowered the valley lows into the mid to upper 60s, while broader valleys and ridgetops remain around the 70 degree mark. Thursday will be warmer, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Heat indices will peak more in the mid 90s, given the lower 70s dew points in place.

A cold front will take aim at the area on Friday, with another round of more widespread convection and the potential of locally heavy rainfall, as upper level flow remains parallel with the surface boundary. This boundary will then sag south and stall through the rest of the weekend and into early next week, although how close, remains in question at this point. In general, dew points do look to dip back into the 60s, with highs reducing a few degrees as well. PoPs have also diminished through the first part of the weekend, but then ramp back up by late Sunday and Monday. Again, confidence is low this far out.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail early this morning, though a few showers could bring briefly worse conditions through daybreak. Some fog is also possible, especially at KSME and KLOZ, though is not explicitly mentioned in the TAFs due to low confidence. CAMs suggest a redevelopment of more substantial shower and thunderstorm activity toward daybreak and later in the morning with the arrival of convection now located west of a line from Louisville to Nashville. Flight category reductions to MVFR or lower are anticipated. Winds will be light and variable through daybreak before becoming southwest at 5 to 10 kts with gusts between 10 and 20 kts during the late morning and afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.