textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the next week.

- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms through the next week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat each day.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 621 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026

Model guidance remains in good agreement regarding an amplifying long wave pattern towards the end of the week and into early next week. Detail differences do grow with time, especially pertaining to questions associated with the influence of the mesoscale. An upper level low will be positioned near the IL/KY/MO border to begin Wednesday morning, with a positively tilted trough stretched southwest through the lower Mississippi Valley. Further east, ridging remains anchored across the southeastern CONUS, while another high center remains over the far southwestern CONUS. The upper low will gradually dampen and shift east through mid- week, before the southwestern CONUS ridge amplifies, with downstream troughing also sharpening from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through New England. By the end of the week, an anomalously strong high will be sprawled from the central/northern Rockies to the central/northern Plains, while a broader trough is established along the Eastern Seaboard. The high will continue to spread east with time into early next week, with the eastern trough enhancing across the western Atlantic.

All of this results in sustaining the true summer-time pattern across eastern Kentucky, with daily convective chances mainly peaking during the afternoon and evening hours. Model guidance has trended away from showing much of a break in the action through mid-week, given the influence of the dampening upper level low in the vicinity of the Commonwealth and also a diffuse surface frontal boundary nearby or just to our south. PWATs will remain elevated throughout the week, with a particularly better surge of 850 mb moisture transport seen Friday into Saturday. Given this more unsettled trend in the model guidance, WPC now has a marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook in place across our area each day through 12z Friday, followed by a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall ending 12z Saturday. A more decisive cold front will settle south of the Commonwealth by later this weekend or sometime early next week. Eventually, this will result in diminishing rain chances and lower dew points, although timing this far out remains problematic. Temperatures through next Monday will be seasonable, with daily highs mainly in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were on the increase at the start of the period, especially near the TN border and near/north of Interstate 64. Scattered showers/thunderstorms should eventually develop over the remainder of the area during the afternoon. IFR or worse conditions can be expected in the heavier precip, while mainly VFR occurs outside of precip. A general decline in activity is forecast during the night. However, assuming clouds break up enough, fog is forecast to develop. All TAF sites are expecting IFR conditions overnight and early Tuesday morning. The fog dissipates on Tuesday morning, leaving VFR area wide late in the morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.