textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Much lower probabilities for showers and storms will be in place during most of the upcoming work week.

- Heat and humidity will quickly become oppressive during the new week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1101 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

Deep convection has ended for time being across eastern Kentucky late this evening. However, an additional disturbance diving south from the Great Lakes could spark additional isolated showers through the overnight and early morning hours. Otherwise, expect fog to form, especially in valleys, and become locally dense.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 557 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

Hot and muggy conditions look to be a main stay for Eastern Kentucky through the extended. Models continue to show, and are in good agreement over a ridge of high pressure located over Southern potions of the Ohio as well as Tennessee Valleys. The ridge axis, continues further north into the Upper Great Lakes and Southern Ontario, by Tuesday morning. Additionally, an upper level trough is located over the Great Basin in Western CONUS, with an upper level disturbance further north over the High Plains.

With high pressure hovering overhead through next week, afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s, under mostly sunny skies, light and variable winds, and dew points in the lower 70s. In the evenings, temperatures cool into the low to mid 70s. These hot and muggy conditions are poised to last several days, peaking between July 1 and July 3rd. Many areas west of the Big Sandy River Basin have a 80-90% probability of seeing Heat Indices of at least 100F. Any members of the general public without access to shelter or hydration, especially these three days, are most susceptible to heat related illnesses.

While chances are low each day, with abundant moisture in the atmosphere, isolated to scattered diurnally driven storms remain possible each afternoon and early evening. At this time, most locations should remain dry.

Thursday evening into Friday, an upper level disturbance ejects out of the Northern Rockies into the High Plains. By Friday afternoon this disturbance approaches the Upper Great Lakes and begins flattening the ridge of high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This may lead to more scattered shower and storm chances heading into the 4th and 5th of July. Models are still resolving the overall pattern and underlying details leading to lower confidence towards next weekends forecast.

Additionally, while unlikely, skies may become hazy at times over the next week in part due to several wildfires over the Four Corners region (Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado). This would have the littlest bit of impact if realized, and at most may shave a degree or two off of the high temperatures.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are present at the start of the TAF period with a just isolated showers, primarily over the Cumberland River Basin. Overnight, partly cloudy skies and recent rainfall will allow for fog to form and it could become IFR or worse in valleys. Fog density and extent at the TAF terminals is less certain as patchy cloud cover and shower activity, particularly near SME, LOZ and IOB, may tend to limit fog density over western sites. The winds will be light and variable through the period at less than 10 knots.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Monday for KYZ044-050-051- 058-059-068-069-079-080-083>086.