textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog will be dense this morning, gradually lifting and disipating through 10 AM EST.

- The coldest airmass so far this season arrives on Sunday.

- The first snowflakes of the season are expected Sunday night into Monday, with some light accumulations possible, mainly on grass and elevated surfaces.

- With the snow showers Sunday night into Monday, locations above 2000 feet near the Virginia border are the most likely area to have any travel impacts.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 600 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025

The period is expected to begin with an enlongated upper level low from east of Hudson Bay to the western Great Lakes vicinity within an upper level trough the axis of which should extend through the MS Valley and encompass portions of the Central and Eastern Conus. At that point, a shortwave trough is progged to be rotating across east KY with another upstream entering the Lower OH Valley and an upper low centered upstream of that. Further west an upper level ridge is expected to extend across much of the western Conus. Upstream of that ridge another upper trough should be nearing the BC and Pacific northwest cost. At the surface, an are of low pressure is expected to be centered over the mid Atlantic vicinity with the cold front that will have crossed eastern KY during the short term period approaching the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a ridge of sfc high pressure is expected to be centered over the Dakotas and extend through much of the Plains/Central Conus. Low to mid level moisture is progged to be over the region with west to northwest upslope flow.

Sunday night to Monday night, a couple of shortwaves will cross the OH Valley/eastern KY Monday evening into Monday night while the upper level low is progged to track into the OH Valley region for Monday. Cold air advection that will have begun during the short term period will continue to end the weekend on Sunday night with 850 mb temperatures falling through the single digits below 0C. 850 mb temperatures should near about -10C during the day on Monday. The will steepen lapse rates and when combined with the passing shortwaves and upslope flow along with daytime heating on Monday will result in scattered to numerous showers at times that should mix with and change to snow showers in all areas through the evening to shortly after midnight. The upper low should move east of eastern KY on Monday night with a gradual decrease in moisture and snow showers and/or flurries at at that point. With the airmass that cold, it is likely that near record coldest high temperatures for the 10th of November will occur at both London and Jackson. In addition, pending the coverage of snow showers late Sunday night into early on Monday, for some locations, very light accumulations of a dusting of snow may occur on grass and elevated surfaces as temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 20s. Temperatures will struggle to get to the mid 30s on Monday in many areas (roughly 25 degrees below normal), but after mid morning, the associated solar insolation/heating should limit or inhibit any accumulations for snow showers that develop during the day on Monday. However, locations above 2000 feet will likely remain below freezing all day on Monday. In these areas some travel impacts may occur and an inch or two of accumulation may occur from Sunday evening into Monday evening. The degree of clearing and lingering snow showers and/or flurries into Monday evening leads to some uncertainty in low temperatures for the more eastern locations that night. Nevertheless, lows should be the coldest lows experienced so far this fall.

Tuesday to Wednesday night, a shortwave ridge moves across the into the area with 500 mb height rises anticipated Tuesday into Tuesday evening as the pattern trends toward less amplification. However, a broad upper trough should linger into the MS Valley and eastern Conus to the south of an upper low in the vicinity of Hudson and James Bay. Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs on the order of 15 to 20 degrees below normal for Tuesday with further moderation on Wednesday ahead of an approaching shortwave and cold front. This front will cross eastern KY later Wednesday into Wednesday night, but the airmass will be more moderate compared to the late weekend/early week airmass.

Thursday to Friday, the western ridge should move east toward the Plains while the upper low and trough in Canada move east and the axis of this trough moves well east. Sfc high pressure will build from the Central Conus into the OH Valley and Southern Appalachians before shifting southeast of the area to end the period on Friday. Upper ridging will generally dominate during the Thursday to Friday period as well. Temperatures should be within 5 degrees of normals.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1250 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025

The precipitation with the front has ended, but MVFR or worse ceilings and will probably persist. This is especially true where clearing and a moist ground has led to areas of dense fog and low stratus developing. Expect these conditions to impact all TAF sites for a time into the morning, resulting in IFR or worse conditions. Everything improves to VFR, though, after 14 or 15Z. Look for winds to be out of the west to southwest and generally less than 10 kts through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.