textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Today should bring the warmest temperatures we've had in more than a month.

- The approach and passage of a cold front will result in rain for most locations tonight, followed by somewhat cooler temperatures to finish out the week.

- There is the potential for a soaking rain this weekend, with the highest rainfall totals generally expected in southern Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 925 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026

Temperatures are beginning to rise sharply with the onset of diurnal heating. This is especially true for those locations with little or no snow cover -- Monticello saw a 18 degree temperature rise in 15 minutes between 845 AM and 900 AM. Given 850 hPa temperatures in the 9-10C range and the potential for good mixing to that level in areas with little or no snow cover, anticipate widespread highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s south of the Mountain Parkway this afternoon with a few mid 70 readings not outside of the realm of possibility in the warmest spots. Further north where there is more snow cover, expect highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The daily record high of 67F at JKL and 69F at LOZ are likely in jeopardy of being tied or broken.

Model sounding profiles appear favorable for a developing cumulus cloud field, so it will likely look more like a spring afternoon out there -- not a February afternoon. Additionally, it will become breezy as BUFKIT profiles show momentum transfer values supporting southwesterly gusts into the 20 to 25 mph range.

UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026

With a combination of warm air advection strengthening overnight and good radiating conditions, there are ridge/valley temperature differences on the order of 20+ deg F this morning. With a very steep inversion in place, valleys will warm very quickly once heating/mixing occurs and the inversion breaks. These conditions have been initialized into today's forecast. The bulk of the day's forecast remains unchanged.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 510 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Northwesterly flow continues aloft over Eastern Kentucky for the first few days of the long term forecast period, although an upcoming pattern shift favors a warmer and wetter weekend forecast. The aforementioned northwesterly flow is a byproduct of the forecast area being sandwiched between broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS and a flattened ridge over the Southern Plains. These features are generally expected to propagate east headed into the weekend, with midlevel height rises and a shift to quasi-zonal flow expected here in the Ohio River Valley. Further upstream, a well-defined trough is expected to eject out of the Desert Southwest and become a closed low. This ejection is expected to yield leeward surface cyclogenesis in the Southern Plains, and by Sunday, active weather is expected to spread over much of the Southeastern CONUS. The exact evolution of this southern stream system remains uncertain, but these synoptics generally point towards a period of warm air advection and moisture return into the commonwealth this weekend. Stronger ridging is expected to build into the region in the wake of this system, and this will allow the warming trend to persist into early next week.

When the period opens on Wednesday evening, a Canadian anticyclone will be nudging its way into western portions of the forecast area. Dry weather and light winds point towards ridge-valley split potential, although some of guidance hints at increasing midlevel cloud potential overnight. To account for this and to ensure continuity with the daytime forecast on Wednesday, CONS data was blended into the baseline NBM for the sky grids. This blended solution does not cloud the skies enough to prevent terrain-based temperature splits, but if the clouds come to fruition, the current forecast valley lows near 20 degrees could be too low. Regardless, low temperatures are forecast to dip below freezing area-wide on Wednesday night, and this could cause any lingering wet spots from snow melt to re-freeze.

Drier weather persists into Thursday, but an embedded shortwave disturbance is likely to yield increased cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures relative to Wednesday. Expect both high and low temperatures to follow a SW (warmer) to NE (cooler) gradient, with highs ranging from the upper 40s/upper 30s and lows between the low 30s/low 20s. While PoPs have dropped to below mentionable values in the latest NBM data for Thursday night, we still need to monitor the potential for a narrow NW-to-SE oriented band of frontogenically- forced precipitation to develop overnight. Given the overlap between weak cyclonic vorticity, overrunning midlevel moisture, and freezing low-level temperatures, it is plausible that this precipitation could come in the form of a light snow. It will likely struggle to overcome the dry air in the column, and the resultant evaporation could also cause it to take the form of virga. No meaningful accumulations are currently forecast, but trends in higher- resolution forecast guidance will be reviewed carefully as this mesoscale event enters their temporal range. By Friday, the surface high will have shifted further to the east, allowing low level flow to veer towards the east-southeast. One last day of cool cyclonic flow aloft will limit the efficacy of any warm air advection, but Friday's afternoon highs in the upper 40s (north) and lower 50s (south) will kick-start the period's overarching warming trend. Expect both cloud cover and temperatures to increase headed into the weekend as the flow aloft becomes quasi-zonal and moisture begins to stream into the column out ahead of the strengthening southern stream system. The coldest valleys could see one more night of below-freezing temperatures, but high temperatures will warm into the 50s on Saturday and Sunday area-wide. Lows will rise well above the freezing mark in this same time frame, and this reinforces the notion that any precipitation associated with the weekend system will come in the form of a plain liquid rain.

The specific evolution of that system remains somewhat uncertain, so it is difficult to provide specific QPF details and the potential for hydrological impacts. Deterministic forecast guidance continues to resolve different system trajectories from run to run, but the blended ensemble data suggests that locally heavy rainfall will still be possible. If the southern track solution like the one presented in the 00z Euro and older GFS runs materializes, the highest precipitation amounts could be confined to the south of the forecast area in the Tennessee Valley. The latest NBM run decreased storm total rainfall to between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain, with the greatest (70-90%) PoPs coming during the daytime hours on Sunday. This decrease appears reasonable, especially given that the greatest LREF probabilities of >1 inch of rain in 24 hours are now confined to the south of the Tennessee State line. LREF mean PWATs approaching 1 inch in Southern Kentucky still rank near the 90th percentile of model climatology. This suggests that locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out, especially in the Cumberland and Kentucky River basins. Thankfully, temperatures above freezing earlier in the forecast period are expected to yield snowmelt in these southern locales well ahead of the onset of this precipitation. This should limit the potential for significant river responses this weekend, although the probabilistic hydro ensemble data (GEFS, NAEFS, and HEFS) suggests that there is a 25-35% chance of approaching action stage flows at Ravenna and Heidelberg in the next 10 days. Those probabilities are also lower than they were at this time yesterday, but given the potential for river/stream rises, we will continue to closely monitor this system in the coming days.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 711 AM EST TUE FEB 10 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period, and will last through today. MVFR ceilings and light rain are expected to develop from north to south across the area this evening, with the possibility of some dips into IFR conditions. The rain will taper off from north to south overnight, but MVFR (perhaps some IFR) ceilings will last longer. There is some potential for ceilings to break up on Wednesday morning, but confidence is rather low and the TAFs remain MVFR for the time being.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.