textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Humid and often wet weather will last through mid week.

- Rain should become less prevalent late in the week as drier air arrives from the north.

UPDATE

Issued at 946 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Mid morning obs were blended into the forecast without any substantive changes for the day as a whole.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with a tinkering of the fog areas through 14Z. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones. The fog SPS was updated and pushed through 14Z.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 235 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

A stationary front will be situated just north and west of the area to begin the long-term period Wednesday, with Eastern Kentucky entrenched within the muggy warm sector to its southeast. A shortwave will cross the area during the day Wednesday within southwesterly mid-level flow, with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity within an environment characterized by PWs around 1.8" and on top of saturated soils, which will raise the possibility of at least isolated excessive rainfall impacts.

The stationary front moves south through the area as a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday as southwesterly mid-level flow turns northerly for the second half of the week. A series of upper troughs then dig south from eastern Canada through the Mid- Atlantic to end the week into early next week. Big question mark for Thursday and Friday is whether a wave within more westerly flow aloft ahead of a deep closed low traversing the New England region is able to ride along the stationary front to our south and bring rain/showers to southern parts of the forecast area. At this time, there is enough uncertainty to warrant low-end PoPs across much of the forecast area, especially south of I-64 from Thursday night through Sunday, with high enough confidence to take out rain chances from roughly I-64 and points north as surface high pressure should be close enough to suppress rain chance south. By Sunday night, it appears all areas should be free of any significant PoPs as surface high pressure prevails across the Ohio River Valley.

Temperatures will remain mild through the period, with highs and lows near normal overall (mid to upper 70s for highs, upper 50s for lows) as southwesterly flow becomes northerly, and humid and cloudy conditions with rain chances transition to a cooler and drier regime.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026

Conditions were largely MVFR and VFR at the start of the period, but there were some pockets of IFR lingering. Isolated showers were also present. Showers will peak in coverage late today and provide localized MVFR (and perhaps spotty IFR in heavier showers or thunderstorms) until early evening. Otherwise, more of the area should see improvement to VFR during the afternoon. Once most of the showers die out this evening, a brief period of largely VFR conditions is forecast. However, showers are again expected to increase over the area from south to north late tonight, and with this a general degradation to IFR conditions is forecast, lasting well into the day Tuesday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.