textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer-than-average conditions continue today ahead of a cold front that passes through Eastern Kentucky this evening and tonight.

- This cold front will bring beneficial rainfall and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to the area today and into tonight. - A cooling trend takes place headed into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026

A few showers and sprinkles have crossed the region overnight, with steadier areas of showers still to the west, southwest, and south of the region. Areas of showers should gradually develop/spread east/northeast through the morning to early afternoon as the approaching system nears and moisture continues to increase. A few thunderstorms are also possible. Hourly temperatures over the next couple of hours were updated to reflect some of the decoupled valley locations.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 330 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026

Another disturbance will trek from the Mid-Mississippi Valley and move towards the OH/TN valleys to begin the long term period. At the same time, a longwave trough over the Great Lakes region will meander southward towards the Ohio River. This trough will cross the area to end the week and bring a shot of colder, drier air as we head into the weekend. Following highs in the 60s to near 70 on Friday, temperatures will drop into the 50s for highs Saturday and into the 30s for lows particularly in valleys on Sunday morning. Monday morning appears to be the coldest, with lows well into the 30s for most locations. Lingering cloud cover may impact how cold the sheltered valleys get, but it is not out of the question that some of the more sheltered valley locations may see lows in the 20s Monday morning. Due to the cold morning temperatures, frost appears likely.

At this point, a fairly quiet synoptic pattern is currently anticipated from early to the middle portion of next week, with surface high pressure building across the Ohio Valley. Model guidance has some spread in terms of the positioning and strength of troughing across the southeast CONUS early next week. The 00Z ECMWF and the 0Z ECMWF ensemble mean have ridging in the southeast to begin the week. The 0Z GFS and 0Z GFS ensemble mean keep a trough in the southeast at that time. Both scenarios would result in very minimal or no chances for rain from early to the middle of next week. The consensus is for temperatures to hovering near normal, with daytime highs in the 60s and nighttime lows in the 30s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 717 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026

VFR generally prevailed at issuance time across eastern KY, with some MVFR or lower reductions in showers just to the northwest and west and also south of eastern KY. VFR will prevail at the TAF sites initially, though as the lower levels gradually saturate, MVFR should spread across most of the area between 14Z and 23Z. Areas of showers are forecast to spread across the region from the west and southwest to the north and northeast during the first 6 to 12 hours of the period as a cold front and upper level disturbance approach. As the showers arrive and the lower levels saturate, southerly winds may gust as high as 15 to 25KT, especially at the 4 more western TAF sites. A few embedded thunderstorms are also possible. During the last 12 hours of the period, the cold front gradually crosses the region, with winds becoming southwest to west and gradually decreasing to 10KT or less. Showers should also taper off from west to east, lingering the longest in the east. As mid and upper level moisture decreases late in the period, fog or low stratus or a mixture of valley fog and low stratus may develop. This could result in MVFR to IFR reductions persisting in several locations through the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.