textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A colder air mass continues to gradually work its way into Eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. - Showery weather lingers through Saturday morning as a cold air advection regime persists.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday/early Saturday, with minor accumulations primarily confined to the higher terrain locales along the Virginia state line.

- Dry weather with a slow warming trend is expected next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 734 AM EST THU NOV 12 2026

A secondary cold front is moving through southeastern Kentucky and will clear the area by mid-morning. Partial clearing and mainly dry weather is expected until mid to late afternoon, when the next post-frontal disturbance brings renewed rain chances lasting into the evening. PoPs and Sky grids were updated to reflect this trend.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 618 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

The forecast guidance suite continues to collectively resolve broad longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS this weekend, with Eastern Kentucky situated upon its southwestern periphery from Friday night through Sunday morning. The persistence of this pattern corresponds with a prolonged period of deep northwesterly flow over the forecast area, and the resultant cold air advection regime should culminate in the coldest high and low temperature readings of the season thus far. Such a setup also favors enhanced low-level moisture (via a fetch off the Great Lakes) and enhanced orographic lift along the area's NW facing slopes. Those enhancements should combine with the approach of an embedded shortwave impulse aloft to yield continued precipitation chances on Friday night/Saturday morning, and it is plausible for portions of the forecast area to see their first flakes of the season in this time frame.

While it looks sufficiently cold enough for snow in the mountains of SE KY during the short term forecast period on Friday afternoon, surface temperatures probably won't be cold enough for snow elsewhere until the long term period starts on Friday night. The latest high resolution ensemble guidance resolves a greater than 55% chance for temperatures to approach the freezing point across all but our northeastern-most counties on Saturday morning, which suggests that any ongoing rain showers will be able to mix with or transition over to snow. Antecedent soil temperatures are too warm for this activity to yield meaningful accumulations, but a dusting cannot be ruled out on elevated surfaces in places along/southeast of the Pottsville Escarpment. Said accumulations are most likely if cloud cover and precipitation chances linger in these upsloped places into the afternoon hours on Saturday, which is a plausible scenario.

Pattern recognition and past forecaster experience suggest that the baseline NBM guidance typically clears skies and tapers PoPs off too quickly in this kind of northwesterly flow setup. Persistent upslope flow and moist low-level sounding profiles suggest that Saturday's clouds could be quite stubborn downwind of the escarpment. As such, have held on to PoPs and bolstered sky grids in the opening stages of the forecast period. The greater cloud cover should mute the diurnal heating curve and relegate afternoon highs to the lower half of the 40s in most places. Some forecast guidance even keeps the mountains of SE KY in the upper 30s on Saturday afternoon, which makes sense given that these locations are also the most likely to see accumulating snow. Clouds should theoretically hold on the longest there, which introduces some uncertainty into Saturday night's low temperature forecast. On the other hand, areas west of I- 75 are the most likely to clear out and the least likely to see continued snow showers/flurries. Even there, highs are unlikely to reach the 50 degree mark, making Saturday the coolest day of the season thus far.

The coldest night(s) of the season will come later in the period though, as the troughing is progged to gradually propagate away from the forecast area early next week. An amplified upstream ridge and its corresponding surface high pressure system will begin to exert their influence on the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. This should shift winds towards a more northerly/northeasterly orientation and facilitate a clearing trend. While modeled midlevel height rises and mostly sunny skies should accordingly allow highs to moderate back into the 50s, this new pattern favors efficient radiational cooling at night. Expect widespread lows below freezing for the remainder for the forecast period, with valleys potentially bottoming out in the low/mid 20s on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 606 AM EST THU NOV 12 2026

A pair of cold fronts moving through the area currently is bringing a mix of conditions this morning, with most locations seeing IFR to MVFR conditions. These reductions to MVFR and IFR conditions should gradually improve to MVFR in the southeast and the potential for VFR west from through 18z, with deteriorating conditions once again from late afternoon through the remainder of the TAF period as the next in a series of disturbances begins to bring another round of showers and low ceilings. West to southwest winds becoming west to northwest as the fronts pass in the next few hours, with gusts to around 20 kts expected into this afternoon before diminishing toward this evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.