textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the weekend, with all of the area expecting showers and thunderstorms at some point.

- Some thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall and strong winds gusts this evening as well as on Saturday and Saturday night. - The air behind a weak cold front may bring some minor relief from the muggy conditions on Monday. A more significant cold front should bring more showers and thunderstorms at midweek, followed by a more noticeable drop in humidity.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

(An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly)

Saturday evening into Saturday night, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across Eastern Kentucky, as a shortwave moves through a positively tilted trough covering much of the Northeast US and Southeast Canada and an associated cold front sags into the OH Valley and portions of the Appalachians. Farther upstream, a high amplitude ridge of high pressure will remain over the Intermountain West, with the apex of the ridge axis extending well into Alberta and Saskatchewan. Models also depict another upper level low on the upstream side of the ridge, located in British Columbia.

The cold front becomes draped across the Ohio Valley late Saturday night and is expected to continue to sag south into Kentucky on Sunday. PWATs will be close to 2 inches ahead of the cold front, dropping to around 1 inch behind it. Storms ahead of the cold front Saturday evening through Sunday will have potential to put down localized heavy rainfall. The WPC has placed most of the Big Sandy and southern portions of the Kentucky River Basins in a marginal ERO Saturday through Sunday morning. While all of the better severe weather parameters (especially shear) stay north of the forecast area and in the Ohio Valley, there may be a low end severe threat across Kentucky. Moderate instability is anticipated and water loaded downdrafts could result in strong to damaging wind gusts from isolated to scattered activity early Saturday evening. Locations in and around thunderstorms may experience gusty and erratic winds. Convective allowing models suggest a weakening line of storms may move into eastern KY around sunset or a bit after and there could be a small wind gust threat from this as well. The SPC has the entire area under a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday and more southern location on Sunday ahead of the front where instability may be strongest.

Through Sunday, as the upper level low progresses deeper into Northeast Canada, the trailing cold front slowly slides off to the east producing additional showers and storms along the way. The upper level low over British Columbia rides over the ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West. Height rises are expected Sunday night through Monday, leading to a break in active weather and mostly sunny skies Monday.

By Tuesday, the upper level low that was modeled to ride over the ridge, spills down the lee side, into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Another cold front will pass trough the region Sometime Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Some models are suggesting a great deal of moisture accompanying this system and preceding the frontal passage. There should be stronger flow aloft/more shear with this system compared to this weekend, and strong to locally damaging winds will be possible with any storms along or ahead of the front. SPC has highlighted this potential mainly for northern parts of eastern KY. However, details and timing of mesoscale features will likely change over the coming days. This will continue to be monitored. After showers and storms move through with the cold frontal passage much drier air is forecasted to move into the area. This will contribute to a dry Thursday.

Temperatures generally range from the mid to upper 80s during the afternoons and upper 60s to lower 70s at night, at least through Tuesday. After the frontal passage Tuesday temperatures are expected to cool some, ranging from the low to mid 80s during the afternoons, cooling into the lower 60s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 512 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Scattered thunderstorms with localized VLIFR conditions were ongoing over the western portion of the area at the start of the period, and have expanded a bit further eastward since then. The chaotic nature of their development makes forecasting them much in advance at any given location problematic. As a result PROB30 groups were used in most TAFs, with the exception of KSJS, where precip is not likely to make it before it fades tonight.

Assuming enough breaks in the clouds tonight after precip wanes, fog development can be expected, especially where rain occurred. At this point, have only included it in TAFs at KSME and KLOZ, but updates may need to consider it elsewhere, depending on how the rain pans out. The fog will bring localized IFR or worse conditions. The fog will dissipate on Saturday morning, but additional thunderstorm development could be underway before the period ends at 18Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.