textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Just a small chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm each day for most of the week.

- Heat and humidity build today - likely becoming quite oppressive by mid-week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 330 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026

The long-term period opens Wednesday evening with an ~596 dam high centered nearly directly over eastern Kentucky and a corresponding surface high in place over the Southeastern CONUS. The low-level air mass will be oppressively hot and humid with 850 hPa temperatures of 23 to 24C and dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Upper-level troughing will be found upstream over the Western CONUS.

The hottest and muggiest air mass of the period will be over the Coalfields and vicinity Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper high lingers overhead. With strong solar heating and the air mass warming even more, expect high temperatures to soar well into the mid 90s on Thursday afternoon with some of the hottest spots flirting with the upper 90s. These values combined with torrid dew points will support heat indices in the 100 to 110F range. While forcing will be weak, a few orographically induced showers or thunderstorms could pop off. While shear will be weak, there will be plenty of instability, so any pulse storm that does go up could be briefly strong.

The upper-level high will then slowly shift east and subside on Friday and Saturday as western troughing deamplifies with a piece of shortwave energy ejecting eastward out across the Plains toward the Ohio Valley. As a result, there will be a gradual slackening in the heat and an overall trend toward increasing PoPs each day as disturbances pass aloft and a cold front eventually approaches from the northwest. Most places dip back into the 80s for highs by next Monday.

For Independence Day specifically, the daylight hours appear mostly dry at this point with higher chances for hit-and-miss showers and thunderstorms during the evening and early overnight. While not as hot as Thursday, it will still be quite oppressive with highs ranging from the lower to mid 90s while heat indices climb to between 95 and 105F.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026

As strong high pressure continues to set up across the region, subsidence is increasing. Under mostly clear skies look for some valley fog development. Did not include any fog impacts at the TAF sites at this time as it is expected to remain restricted to the deeper river valleys. Winds are also light at the TAF issuance, and will remain light through the remainder of the forecast period - less than 5 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.