textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The shower and storm chances shift to the southeast today but are expected to build back in on Tuesday with heavy rainfall a distinct threat. - Somewhat drier and warmer weather returns Wednesday through Friday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 445 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

The first part of the extended will be a continuation of damp weather with a threat for thunderstorms and excessive rainfall lingering through Thursday. The diurnal cycle should dominate the timing of the convection each day. Later, broad troughing looks to be on track to spread south from Canada into the Ohio Valley closing out the work week and heading into the weekend - perhaps bringing more shower and thunderstorm chances - continuing the damp pattern that started this month.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The models remain in good agreement with the long wave pattern through the end of next week. An upper level ridge will remain centered across the western Atlantic, strengthening through the latter half of the work week. Further west, a persistent heat dome centered near the Four Corners region will also intensify during the period. Meanwhile, a deeper upper level low spiraling over the vicinity of Hudson Bay will spread cyclonic flow over the north central U.S. through next week. By the start of next weekend, both ridges will have dampened somewhat, with more model uncertainty regarding how much residual troughing can be maintained across the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Deep South. In general, this will result in a continuation of diurnally-driven convection each day through next week across eastern Kentucky, with elevated humidity levels and near normal temperatures expected for early August.

The models have trended more towards sustaining a closed low over the Deep South on Tuesday, with higher PoPs favored across our terrain, and lesser chances north, further away from the forcing. The upper low will drift closer to us on Wednesday, bringing higher rain chances to eastern Kentucky. LREF mean PWATs continue to range in the 50-75th percentile range of climatology, but storm motions look a bit slower this go around at around 10 kts, so locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The upper level low will dampen across the region on Thursday, with some degree of troughing remaining in place through the weekend, dependent on the strength of upstream cyclonic flow and any potential short wave energy migration. There still seems to be pretty good confidence in keeping any surface fronts north of the Ohio River, allowing for only weak forcing across our area. As such, expect mainly afternoon/early evening PoPs in place each day through Sunday, but convection should be more scattered in nature. Highs each day will average in the lower to middle 80s. Lows will moderate slightly from the mid to upper 60s to near 70 by next weekend, with elevated humidity levels in place.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026

An area of low pressure has pushed east of Kentucky but it is still able to maintain some isolated shower activity early this morning primarily impacting the Lake Cumberland region. Low stratus and fog development through the early morning hours will be the primary concern for the aviation community. Forecast soundings show a moist near-surface layer, though some uncertainty remains regarding the degree of low level mixing and whether stratus or dense fog will dominate. For now, a combination of low stratus and fog has been maintained across all TAF sites, with conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR (and localized LIFR) through 12Z. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to lift between 14Z and 15Z, returning widespread VFR conditions through the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light and variable into dawn before turning northerly at 5 knots or less this afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.