textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather should last through at least Sunday morning.

- Showers and thunderstorms will make a return Sunday night and Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 225 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in passing agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. While the 5h longwave pattern consists of a series of fairly well modeled troughs swirling west to east through southern Canada during this time, to the south through the middle of the States, the pattern is more muddled. Primarily this is due to inconsistent handling off a weak wave entering the Ohio Valley Sunday. This wave is strung out as it passes Kentucky just north of the Ohio River in nearly zonal mid level flow. This will bring energy and some limited 5h height falls to eastern Kentucky starting Sunday afternoon. Only late Monday does this upper support finally depart to the east of the state and heights start to rebound. The shakiness in the model alignment for this part of the country, at the start of the extended portion of the forecast, limits confidence in the details of the models and their blends that comprise the NBM. Needless to say, this period will feature unsettled weather but no clear and distinct focused time of peak activity or concern. The ECMWF depicts Monday as the most prone to widespread convection with heavy rain and the NBM complies with categorical PoPs and the highest basin average QPF. Given the reasonableness of this solution, though with lower confidence in timing and details, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids with little adjustment. The main, but minor, changes made to this initialization were for spot max and min temperature details as well as some limited terrain effects both nights.

Sensible weather to start the long term portion of the forecast features an increase in moisture and PWS ahead of a frontal system easing in from the northwest. This returns the JKL CWA to a threat for excessive rainfall and flooding potential given antecedent conditions from the rains of this past couple of days. The anticipated frontal passage on Monday centers the peak rain and QPF concerns, though better severe chances may fall on Sunday afternoon and evening ahead of the deepest column moisture. This has been captured in the Day 3 Marginal SPC outlook for western parts of the Cumberland Valley. Ahead of the convective build-up, temperatures look to reach the mid 80s - helping establish higher instability that could fuel some stronger storms, though better upper and synoptic support will likely wait to move into our area until late at night when this convective fuel is on the wane. Cooler weather follows for Monday (rain cooled perhaps via multiple rounds of storms) and Tuesday (new air mass and drier conditions). Both nights of this period do have an opportunity for radiational cooling and some terrain effects - early Sunday night, and late Monday night when moisture is at a minimum for this time frame - though still higher than normal.

The forecast beyond Tuesday features an anchoring 5h ridge developing over the Desert Southwest with troughing through the Great Lakes slowly working east with time - probably keeping lower 5h heights over eastern Kentucky. The resulting sensible weather makes things somewhat unsettled with at least some small shower and storm chances from Wednesday through Friday - mainly just during the afternoon and early evening hours. Meanwhile, the extra clouds and pcpn chances keep conditions slightly on the cool side of normal for late June.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026

Valley fog is expected to develop late tonight and grow in breadth and depth until it dissipates after sunrise. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, and may affect KSME and KLOZ at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.