textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost and freezing temperatures are expected late tonight and early Sunday in most valleys.

- Below normal temperatures and mainly dry weather will prevail through Sunday.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from Sunday night to Saturday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

Skies continue to clear, especially across the north, allowing for temperatures to drop faster than indicated in the hourly grids. Have made adjustments to account for this, but the overall forecast minimum temperatures have not changed. Frost/freeze statements have been updated with no changes.

UPDATE Issued at 655 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

The forecast remains largely on track this evening. Some light rain and/or drizzle/sprinkles have been reported around the CWA this afternoon, and additional light returns are currently noted on radar. Dry dewpoints in the upper 20s/lower 30s suggest that not all of this activity is reaching the ground. While dewpoints are slightly higher (closer to 40) in our southwestern counties, thunder appears increasingly unlikely. So, thunderstorm chances were removed from the forecast for the rest of the evening. Model consensus continues to depict a clearing trend after dark tonight, which should yield efficient radiational cooling. We will be monitoring satellite trends this evening, as MinT forecast adjustments may be needed if cloud cover hangs around longer. This is not the favored forecast solution though. Valley MinTs near/below freezing and widespread frost formation are still expected tomorrow morning. Frost/Freeze headlines have been issued for the entire CWA, and interests with sensitive plants are accordingly encouraged to take any necessary protective actions.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 351 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

The forecast period begins Monday morning with the arrival of a shortwave perturbation diving toward the CWA ahead of a much stronger upper-level trough. This initial wave is progged to bring increasing chances of showers and storms early Monday, with PoPs ranging from 25 percent in the southwest to 50 percent northeastward toward the Big Sandy Basin. While the diurnal timing is not favorable for severe convection, some rumbles of thunder remain possible. Aside from precipitation chances, temperatures will begin to rise as highs are progged to climb into the 70s. As the quick- moving shortwave exits to the east, PoP chances will decrease Monday night. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the low to upper 50s. Should clouds clear, the combination of antecedent moisture and light winds will likely lead to valley fog through early Tuesday.

Tuesday brings renewed threats of showers and thunderstorms as the primary shortwave dives southeast from Canada into the northern CONUS. As this occurs, the associated upper-level circulation will settle into the northern Great Lakes. At the surface, the low- pressure center will track toward the Great Lakes, trailing a cold front that is progged to extend southwestward through the CONUS and reach the doorstep of the CWA by Tuesday morning. This setup will facilitate showers and storms throughout the day. However, the front is expected to stall over the region, becoming a focal point for an extended period of convection as surface features ripple along the zone of baroclinicity.

With multiple rounds of precipitation expected, forecast QPF for this period remains high. Based on the current model suite, total QPF from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday night ranges from nearly 3.00 inches in northern areas to 2.00 inches along the high terrain of Pike and Letcher Counties. Once the boundary finally shifts through the area, brief surface high pressure will build into the region before another system approaches for the weekend.

Overall, the period is progged to be active. A weak shortwave arrives Monday, followed by multiple perturbations riding along a stalled front from Tuesday afternoon through late Thursday night. A brief reprieve from the rain is expected Friday, but this will be cut short by another potential system for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026

VFR conditions without significant wind continue to be forecast through the period. Clear to mostly clear skies will continue until mid and high clouds begin to move in from the northwest after 21Z.

High pressure will lead to light and variable winds early this morning. As the high moves east after sunrise, south to southwest winds will develop but should generally remain under 10 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-069-080-085>088-104-106>120.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ068-079-083- 084.