textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region through Black Friday.

- There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for the early to middle part of next week. Some wintry precipitation is possible during the Monday night through Tuesday night period.

UPDATE

Issued at 825 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025

Tweaked sky grids to reflect current satellite trends. Also ingested latest wind and temperature observations and recalculated diurnal trend for overnight low. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 538 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025

Late afternoon update is out with minor updates to the Sky grids based on latest satellite trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 141 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025

After a chilly start to the day Saturday, temperatures slowly moderate upwards under increasing warm advection, especially late in the day with the passage of a warm front on the leading edge of the next system approaching the area. The initial surge of moisture aloft will be moving over a dry low-level air mass, which may support some initial p-type concerns as the atmospheric column cools via evaporation, though any snow that may fall will not cause any accumulations or impacts outside of a possible dusting on the tops of the higher mountains along the Virginia border. As the warm front moves through and warm advection ushers in increasing moisture through the lower levels, any possible frozen precipitation will quickly change to all rain for the remainder of Saturday night into the morning hours Sunday. As the cold front moves through, strong cold advection on the backside of the system may allow for snow showers with no expected impacts outside of very light accumulations over the high terrain near the Virginia border.

After a brief lull late Sunday night into Monday with the passage of a progressive and weakening surface ridge, attention turns to a large-scale yet progressive upper trough moving east across the country and progged to impact our area from Monday night through early Wednesday. There remains considerable uncertainty with regards to the evolution of this system, or systems, as operational models suggest two separate shortwaves (northern and southern) within the large-scale trough, which may or may not be in sync as they approach our area, which would impact precipitation amounts over eastern Kentucky. Additionally, there is uncertainty with regards to temperatures and critical thicknesses which will have a significant impact on where potential wintry precipitation occurs within the Eastern Kentucky region. The most recent set of operational models suggest an overall warming trend which would suggest less wintry precipitation across the area late Monday night into Tuesday, but this is not shown with this forecast package which utilizes the NBM incorporating older model runs from last evening.

Depending on how the system evolves, cold advection snow showers are again possible on the back end Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, with the potential for light accumulations especially over the high terrain, with dry weather most likely returning Wednesday into Wednesday night.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 625 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025

VFR conditions continue to prevail across all TAF sites through the TAF window. Winds may remain gusty for the next couple of hours from the west northwest with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds then diminish through the rest of the night. Winds will then pick up from the west at 5 to 10 kts on Friday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.