textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flood Watch remains in effect until noon today. Showers and thunderstorms will be most widespread northeast of US-421 this morning, bringing torrential downpours and a localized flash flooding risk.

- Hot, muggy, and mostly dry weather takes hold for Thursday. Afternoon highs around 90 degrees combined with high humidity will push peak heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees.

- A progressive cold front brings widespread showers and numerous thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, with a threat for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall.

- High pressure ushers in a brief break of cooler and drier air for Saturday, before unsettled weather and rain chances return Sunday through early next week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026

A quick look at the 500-mb heights reveal ridging located over the Lower Great Lakes and portions of Southern Quebec at the start of the period. Upstream to the west, low pressure is occluding over Eastern Manitoba. The system's cold front extends through the Upper Great Lakes across the Upper Midwest and into the Central Plains. Meanwhile, southerly flow around the western periphery of a broad area of high pressure centered over the Central Atlantic will reinforce rich moisture over the eastern third of CONUS.

Dew points ahead of the cold front will remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s over eastern Kentucky. Shower and storm chances should generally remain minimal Thursday night (under 15%) into early Friday morning. By 12Z Friday the Upper Midwestern cold front will have advanced to near the Lower Ohio River. Widespread showers and numerous thunderstorms are expected to occur Friday afternoon across eastern Kentucky with the passage of the cold front. Models depict a moist and unstable environment ahead and along the cold front, with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, PWATS around 1.8-1.9 inches, and MUCAPE nearing 2500 to 3000 J/kg. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the frontal passage, though the system will be progressive, so that should keep any flooding threat isolated. Quick clearing behind the cold front should allow for fog to form in the river valleys Friday night.

On Saturday, the cold front keeps progressing into the Southeast, leaving mostly clear skies, dry conditions and light northerly winds in its wake. A second cold front will approach the JKL CWA out of the northwest early next week and lead to increasing clouds at first, followed by renewed shower and storm chances. With ample moisture feeding northward around an area of high pressure in the eastern Gulf, shower and storm chances return for Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures through the extended period look to remain in the mid 80s through Sunday, before the second cold front results in cooler highs in the mid 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures remain elevated Thursday night, settling into the upper 60s to mid 70s. With a frontal passage Friday afternoon, Friday night's low temperatures are poised to be 10 degrees cooler. These cooler low temperatures persist for the remainder of the extended forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026

Conditions were mostly VFR at the start of the period, with some spots of MVFR in patchy fog. More widespread and substantial flight category reductions are expected to arrive from the northwest over the next several hours, especially for terminals north and east of JKL as remnants of an MCS move in. Confidence in timing and spatial extent of the coverage is medium at best and that is reflected by plenty of PROB30 and TEMPO groups in the TAFs. Quieter weather arrives during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Sustained winds will be less than 10 kts through the period, though a few brief gusts to between 10 and 20 kts possible during the daylight hours on Wednesday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068- 069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-111-112-114-116.