textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and patches of drizzle will taper off from northwest to southeast through Thursday morning.

- Much cooler air settles into eastern Kentucky for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures on Thursday night will dip into the mid to upper 30s in valleys, bringing the potential and localized patches of frost.

- A warming trend begins this weekend with afternoon highs returning to the mid to upper 70s by Sunday.

- Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area for the upcoming weekend continuing into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of PoPs and drizzle into the late night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a cold front settling southeast through eastern Kentucky this evening. Showers and patches of drizzle follow this boundary with a gradual drying trend ensuing from northwest to southeast. Currently, under plenty of low clouds, temperatures are running in the low to mid 50s through the area. Meanwhile, amid northwest winds of around 5 mph, drier air is inbound from the northwest where dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 40s while low and mid 50s are noted to the southeast. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids while tweaking the PoPs per the current radar and CAMs guidance. Did also take out the thunder chances for the rest of the night. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 431 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026

An upper level low over Hudson Bay and its associated cyclonic flow will allow for mean troughiness for most locations east of the Rockies through the weekend. The low will then generally migrate eastward into early next week, with northwest flow aloft being reinforced across the northern half of the CONUS, although model details remain more uncertain. This will result in periodic rain chances across eastern Kentucky, with temperatures moderating back to above normal this weekend, and then cooling off to below normal into early next week.

High pressure will start off positioned across the southern Appalachians early Friday. This feature will quickly move east, allowing for return flow across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures will rebound into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A short wave trough and surface cold front will take aim at the Ohio Valley Friday night, with our eastern valleys dropping off into the upper 40s early on, before thicker clouds invade after midnight. Other locations will remain in the 50s. Rain chances will increase from the northwest after midnight, mainly north of the Mountain Parkway. Better upper level support will remain to our north, generally exiting by Saturday. The cold front will move through eastern Kentucky on Saturday, supporting small chance PoPs.

Another brief period of drier weather moves in for Saturday night, before better chance PoPs return Sunday into early Monday, although the GFS and ECMWF remain at odds with the details. Depending on the solution, rainfall totals could range from around a tenth of an inch to as much as a half inch. High pressure and dry weather take hold from Monday night through Tuesday afternoon, before yet another system approaches our area from the northwest, bringing the next chance of rain, mainly Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Highs will warm through the 70s by Sunday, before retreating to the 60s on Monday. Temperatures will then warm back to near normal readings by Wednesday, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s, with Tuesday morning likely the coolest day, with a few locations dipping to below the 40 degree mark perhaps.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2026

At the 06Z TAF issuance, lingering showers and drizzle are gradually departing far southeastern Kentucky but an area of MVFR or worse ceilings are noted behind the departing precipitation and will continue to impact terminals east of I-75 and south of I-64 through most of the night. Drier air is leading VFR conditions further north and west. Conditions should improve quickly toward and after daybreak as drier air moves in and clears the ceilings. Winds will be light and variable overnight, becoming northwesterly under 10 kts during the day on Thursday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.