textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cold front will cross the area on Friday and usher a colder and drier airmass into the region for the weekend. - A widespread frost is likely this weekend, and a freeze is also possible. The coldest temperatures will be in the deeper valleys.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 418 PM EST THU NOV 5 2026

The start of the forecast period is characterized by quiet weather and below average temperatures. Steady, deep northwesterly flow in the wake of Friday's cold front, a building surface high pressure system, and dry air throughout the column will keep meaningful chances of rain out of the forecast through at least the weekend. The most notable sensible weather impacts this weekend will come from potential frost and/or river valley fog at night. After any remnant fog/frost burn off on Saturday morning, temperatures will likely struggle to warm much higher than the mid/upper 50s. This will give Saturday night's lows a head start in the race towards freezing, but just how cold it gets will be contingent upon how much dry air mixes down to the surface earlier this afternoon. A similar setup is in store for Sunday, so mesoscale dewpoint trends will need to be monitored closely as the time approaches. Frost is certainly on the table in the sheltered and shaded hollows on both Saturday and Sunday nights, but the geographical extent of the frost outside of this is contingent upon how the crossover temperatures will set up. If dewpoints are only able to mix down into the mid 30s, fog could be favored over frost. On the other hand, if dewpoints mix to values well below that critical 32 degrees mark, a widespread frost (and potentially even a localized freeze) is plausible. Near the main stem river valleys, fog is currently the favored solution, especially given the recent rainfall. The last frost/freeze forecast did not fully come to fruition, and the baseline NBM model guidance used to populate the grids appears to be quite cold in this time frame. Thus, agricultural interests are strongly encouraged to monitor for future forecast updates.

A gradual warming trend kicks off on next week, with temps creeping closer to 70 by midweek. The persistence of a broad surface high pressure and a return to quasi-zonal flow aloft should also keep us dry through the end of the period, although there is a signal that the upper level pattern could turn more active in the latter half of the work week. Rain chances accordingly creep back into the forecast from Wednesday night into Thursday, but those PoPs are quite low at this time. This is a testament to lingering model spread regarding the setup, so those with late week outdoor plans should monitor to see if those rain chances increase with subsequent forecast packages.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1231 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2026

VFR conditions are in place across the forecast area at time of the 06z TAF issuance. Valley fog is expected across the forecast area tonight which will cause IFR conditions. However, outside of valleys, VFR conditions should prevail. Ceilings are forecast to drop quite sharply from northwest to southeast as a cold front moves through the area on Friday. This ceiling change should bring widespread MVFR conditions with IFR conditions possible, but with some improvement in cigs back to low-VFR conditions through the evening for most locations. The cold front will also cause winds to veer to the northwest, but with sustained winds expected to remain below 10 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.