textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow showers and isolated squalls will move through tonight. Most areas will see less than half an inch of accumulation, leading to scattered slippery road conditions.

- Higher snow totals of up to two inches are expected over the higher elevations near the Virginia border through daybreak Saturday.

- Arctic chill returns tonight with temperatures plunging into the upper single digits and teens. Highs will only reach the 20s on Saturday.

- A dramatic warming trend begins Sunday. Temperatures will climb to the mid 50s to mid 60s Wednesday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 710 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. Snow showers are still expected to develop over the next few hours and affect portions of the region as the arctic boundary nears.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 235 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in good agreement aloft through the bulk of the long term portion of the forecast, though differences start to show up by mid week. They all depict the welcomed retreat of the long dominant eastern 5h trough to start the period as the weekend concludes. This retreat allows for heights to rise over eastern Kentucky, though fast mid level northwest flow remains. Within this flow, a dampening shortwave passes southwest of the area Sunday night with the rest of the impulses staying well northeast of Kentucky through the start of the new week. At that point, 5h ridging will be pushing deeper into Kentucky from the southwest for a definitive break in the overall pattern of the past month or so. Attention then turns to a southwest trough moving through northern Mexico ahead of midweek. The ECMWF is slower to progress this wave than the GFS - in line with their typical biases. This wave also weakens with time while heading into the Deep South for Wednesday. Meanwhile, the northern stream flow will start to impinge the Ohio Valley with another trough edging south. This will bring falling heights to eastern Kentucky, more so in the GFS than the ECMWF at this point. Either way, there are good indicators for a chillier end to the period - just nowhere near as bad as the past few weeks, it seems. Given the model similarities for the bulk of the period the NBM looked reasonable as the starting point of the forecast grids with some adjustments made for overnight temperatures through mid week via enhanced terrain distinctions.

Sensible weather features the much anticipated warm up and thaw for the area this upcoming week. Sunday morning starts out plenty chilly but a nice temperature rise will occur through the day - especially south where upper 40s will be possible by late afternoon. To the north, though, sub-freezing temperatures may hold for one last day. Temperatures fall back into the 20s most places that night with a more uniform warmup on Monday as mercury readings climb into the mid 40s north and mid to upper 50s south. Tuesday will be similarly warm with mid 50s north and low 60s south. However, an series of sfc waves will bring plenty of clouds and times of rain to the area into the upcoming weekend. This will help to cap the temperature rise each day. A more substantial system may be brewing toward the end of the period with the potential to tap into the still nearby cold air so we will have to watch for these ingredients trying to come together in a winter storm in our vicinity next weekend.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of allowing for some extra terrain enhancement for the first few nights of the extended portion of the forecast.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 710 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

At issuance time, MVFR was reported across the region, with winds generally north west to north northwest at 10KT or less with some gusts as high as round 20KT. Snow showers are still forecast to develop during the first 6 hours of the period, with the greatest concentration between about 03Z and 09Z as an arctic cold front passes. Winds behind this boundary should trend more northerly, and gusts up to 20KT should linger for much of the first half of the TAF period. Snow showers should taper off to flurries between 08Z and 12Z. MVFR is generally expected to prevail until the snow showers taper off, with VFR largely prevailing for the second half of the TAF period. Within the heavier snow showers or any snow squalls, brief period of IFR vis and or ceilings are possible along with gusts as high as 25 to 30KT. From 12Z to the end of the period, winds should become less gusty overall, and remain northwest to north at less than 10KT and slacken after 22Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ088-118- 120.