textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A series of cold fronts will bring a possibility of showers and thunderstorms to the area at times through Saturday.

- Some storms on Saturday afternoon and evening could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and even some hail.

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air will arrive to start the new week, with mainly dry weather.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026

The long term period will start with a relatively comfortable air mass in place, by August standards. Surface high pressure supplying the cooler and drier air should be ridging from western Ontario to the lower Ohio Valley, while low pressure (surface and aloft) is just north of the Great Lakes. The upper trough surrounding the low will cover most of the eastern CONUS. Our lowest dew points from this air mass are forecast from Monday into Tuesday, with readings in the 50s, also allowing for lows in that range. In fact, the NBM and MEXMOS are only a couple degrees off the record of 55 at JKL on the 25th.

The low and the trough weaken by midweek as they drift east, and a warming trend gets underway locally as geopotential heights rise. The forecast then gets messier moving into the late week time frame. Another upper low or trough is expected to move east southeast to southeast Ontario, which will deepening a larger scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS again. This supports a cold front to move southeast through the Midwest. There is not agreement on the timing of this front to arrive here, or on the surface pattern setting up in advance. At this point, only a generalized forecast is practical, with an increase in moisture/dew points and POP ahead of the front late in the week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026

An extensive cumulus field had developed over most of eastern Kentucky by the 18Z TAF issuance. Continued development into isolated to scattered showers and storms is likely through early evening, mainly south of I-64. While conditions should be primarily VFR, brief reductions are possible at any terminals impacted by convection. Convection will dissipate this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Thereafter, valley fog should again develop and this may affect a few of the TAF sites during the ~06Z to 12Z timeframe. As for winds, outside of any storms, winds will generally be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.