textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air will arrive behind a cold front to start the new week accompanied with dry weather.

- Chances for a few showers and thunderstorms return around midweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 838 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026

Precip has tapered off with the exception of the far southern and southeaster portions of the forecast area, where there is still a threat of severe weather for a short time yet. The forecast has been updated for the latest trends on radar.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 457 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026

The long-term period opens with quiet weather Monday morning. The 22/12z model suite analysis shows mean troughing in place across the eastern CONUS around a parent ~558 dam low spinning near/over the Ottawa Valley. A smaller upstream closed ~570 dam low is transiting from southern Alberta into Saskatchewan. Meanwhile, an ~596 dam upper level high is centered near/over New Mexico. Translating down to the surface, an ~1005 mb surface low is nearly vertically stacked under the parent low between James Bay and Lake Ontario. Its cold front sweeps south-southeastward along the Carolina coast and then arcs southwest to west through the Gulf Coast states before extending back northwestward into the central Plains. Cool Canadian high pressure, cradled in the arc of the cold front, extends from northwestern Ontario to over the Commonwealth. Farther upstream, an ~1005 mb surface low is passing over southern Saskatchewan and dragging a trailing cold front through the Northern Rockies and Great Basin.

For Monday through Tuesday, heights will gradually rise over the Ohio Valley as the first upper-level trough and its parent low shift away to the northeast and surface high pressure settles southeast, cresting over eastern Kentucky with PWATs close to 0.75 inches. With time, a warm front will try to ease back northward toward the Commonwealth, allowing PWATs to recover back toward 1.5 inches by late Wednesday. However, heights will fall slightly again mid- to late week as the aforementioned closed upper low over the Canadian Prairies digs southeast, opens, and reinforces troughing over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the work week. This will support the next area of low pressure tracking into eastern Canada while its trailing cold front slides southward into the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday. Drier weather may follow a second cold front heading into next weekend.

In sensible weather terms, look for fair and cool weather through Tuesday night, with lows ranging in the 50s to near 60F and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Fog is likely in the mainstem river valleys late each night through mid-morning. Low to medium precipitation chances in the form of diurnally modulated showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday and persist through Friday as the first cold front works through the region, before trending drier by Saturday. Look for highs ranging mainly in the mid 80s from Wednesday onward, while nighttime lows moderate into the 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026

Clearing skies following showers and thunderstorms on Saturday has led to fog formation in many valley locations, especially south of the I-64 corridor. Some of this is dense in spots. There is some uncertainty as to how extensive it will be, with KIOB and KSYM more robustly into the drier post cold front airmass and should not be affected. The fog in the vicinity of the remaining TAF sites specially KJKL and KSJS may lift into those location as the nocturnal inversion deepens after around 08Z and the same may occur for KSME and KLOZ. LAMP guidance had IFR or lower reductions into KJKL for a few hours and briefly for KSJS. Generally included MVFR reductions for a couple of hours at KSME and KLOZ and followed this based on recent satellite trends. Fog should lift and dissipate in most location between 12Z and 14Z, with VFR conditions generally prevailing to end the period. Valley fog may again develop by the 04Z and 06Z timeframe, but this should not affect the TAF sites.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.