textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather with warm afternoons persists into the weekend.

- A low potential for rain will return on Sunday through Monday morning, with a more significant system bringing a higher potential for widespread rain arriving around the middle of next week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 348 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

The long term opens Monday with an upper-level ridge still over much of the eastern third of the country, with its ridge axis oriented SE to NW towards the Great Lakes. Farther upstream, a predominant trough digs into the Great Basin and Four Corners region of the Southwest. Through the day the ridge will gradually shift farther east, with surface high pressure expected over the Delaware area. Aside from a low possibility of a light shower north of I-64 in the morning, expect dry conditions across eastern Kentucky under southeasterly downslope flow, overcast skies, and temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s, 5 to 8 degrees above climatological normals. Given the downslope component, deterministic ECMWF and GFS guidance was blended in to lower dew points a few degrees below standard NBM guidance. Under decreasing cloud cover, temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 40s to low 50s Monday night.

On Tuesday, eastern Kentucky will still sit under the upper-level ridge, with the axis just east of the forecast area. The incoming cyclone embedded within the trough will progress east into the Central Plains Tuesday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching system will advect moisture-rich air northeastward into our region. By Tuesday afternoon, surface winds veer from southeasterly to more southerly, and mean PWATs around 1.1 to 1.2 inches will have advected into the area. These levels fall within the 85th to 90th percentiles. With strong southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid to upper 70s, 10 to 15 degrees above climatological normals. These temperatures are supported by the 584 dam 500-mb heights across the area, falling in the 95th percentile. Clouds and precipitation chances look to increase through the evening and overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday. With incoming clouds providing some insulation, along with continued southerly winds, expect overnight lows in the upper 50s, around 15 degrees above normal. The record warm low temperature at the Jackson Airport for Tuesday night is 59F, established in 2016.

Wednesday, as the cyclone progresses into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, a 40-50 kt LLJ will work over eastern Kentucky. The LLJ will help PWATs surge between 1.25 and 1.50 inches - firmly within the 90th to 97.5th climatological percentile per NAEFS guidance - leading to widespread rain chances along with breezy conditions. At present, the LREF 00Z ensemble suite suggests a 20% chance wind gusts could exceed 40 mph along the high terrain of Harlan County. In addition, the ensemble guidance also shows a 10% chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph south of Lake Cumberland and the city of Monticello. While little instability exists, strong low-level moisture convergence may support a few embedded rumbles of thunder Wednesday afternoon and evening, along and west of the I-75 corridor. Locally heavy rain rates are also possible in the southwest portions of the forecast area, and the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 1 of 4) for those areas. Temperatures will continue to run well above average Wednesday afternoon, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s - with mid-70s most attainable across far eastern valleys before steadier precipitation arrives - roughly 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Mild conditions persist Wednesday night ahead of the advancing boundary, with lows staying elevated in the mid to upper 50s.

The surface cold front will already be east of the forecast area by 12Z Thursday, though upper-level support may lag behind. Forecast confidence remains on the lower side through the end of the workweek due to notable model spread regarding the evolution of the trough. Ensemble cluster analysis highlights a stark split: while the GEFS favors a progressive solution where the system lifts cleanly into Canada, the majority of the EPS members depict the trough shearing apart, allowing a secondary closed low to cut off over the Deep South.

Given the potential for a secondary cutoff circulation to maintain a trough and moisture feed near the southern Appalachians, the NBM has maintained shower chances that will gradually taper off from west to east Thursday through Friday. Thursday will remain mild with afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s, while overnight lows range from the lower 50s west to mid-50s east. On Friday, temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s will continue the stretch of above-normal highs through the end of the work week. High pressure looks to build back into the region Saturday, leading to the return of quiet weather and seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SAT OCT 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period as mid- level clouds gradually thicken and lower, with some potential for lower clouds (yet still VFR conditions) possible after 15z Sunday, especially toward KSME and KLOZ. Light winds will continue out of the east and southeast but remain less than 10 kts. Winds will become light and variable at the valley terminals around sunset, before increasing again after 12z Sunday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.