textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday. Burning is not recommended as fire behavior could become erratic.

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest periods will be Sunday and Tuesday through Friday of the coming week. New daily record high temperatures will possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday and persist through much of next week as the area will be on the far eastern/southeastern periphery of an active storm track from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region.

UPDATE

Issued at 658 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

Isolated showers are currently ongoing along the KY-TN line; therefore, the main change to the forecast was to increase PoPs and cloud cover for a few hours in this area to bring the forecast in line with current radar trends. These showers are expected to collapse this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Other than that, hourly temperatures and dewpoints were nudged to be more in line with observations, particularly to adjust for a slower drying trend this evening.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified and rather stagnant through the week. Upper level ridging will be anchored across the southeastern CONUS, while bouts of eastern Pacific energy allow for mean troughing generally west of the Plains. This results in persistent southwest flow in the middle of the country. Eastern Kentucky will remain on the periphery of traversing short wave activity, with any surface fronts likely remaining well to our northwest until perhaps towards the end of the period.

High confidence remains for a continuation of well above normal temperatures, with highs well into the 80s each day from Tuesday through Saturday, and even a few 90 degree readings for a few locations at times. Rain chances increase across the area from the northwest early next week, with better chances moving in by Thursday, with some better forcing currently predicted. A secondary peak in PoPs will occur sometime this weekend, but temporal differences amongst the models make this lower confidence.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

Sites are slowly starting to return to VFR as diurnal heating is causing this morning's stratus deck to erode. As daytime heating continues, those clouds will continue to lift and scatter out to more of a FEW or SCT cumulus deck. With that being said, KJKL, KSJS, KSYM and KIOB will start to improve to VFR and stay there through the remainder of the period. KSME and KLOZ are starting to see fair-weather cumulus developing but cloud base is 3,500 feet and therefore VFR. Clear skies are largely anticipated overnight which could lead to some radiational fog at KLOZ and KSME after 06Z through 13Z before joining the rest of the VFR sites for the remainder of the period. Lastly, winds are forecast to remain light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.