textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow moving cold front will bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area Friday into Friday night. They will linger until late in the weekend in some locations, especially in southeast Kentucky.

- Dry and cooler weather will arrive area wide for the new workweek.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 345 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026

The extended period opens during what looks to be a cool and rainy weekend. A cold front is poised to sit southeast of the forecast area. Post-frontal scattered to numerous rain showers will encompass areas along and south of the I-64 corridor through Saturday morning. Chances drop considerably through the afternoon, with isolated to scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorms along the KY-TN and KY-VA borders. Shower chances should generally stay south of a line extending from Monticello to Hazard to Prestonsburg.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase in coverage once again overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Deep moisture (PWATs around 1.25 to 1.50 inches) interacting with an approaching mid-level shortwave and low-level northeasterly flow will generate a solid wave of overrunning rainfall, enhanced by upslope flow along the higher terrain. Rain chances will gradually decrease from northwest to southeast through Sunday afternoon as the trough axis pivots east and a reinforcing cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley. A wind shift to the northwest behind the front will usher in much drier air and cold air advection (CAA), ending precipitation by Sunday night.

Heading into the new workweek, expansive surface high pressure (1024-1028 mb) builds directly into the Ohio Valley on Monday before drifting northeast toward New England and the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday. Deep-layer subsidence under northwesterly flow aloft will usher in a very dry air mass across the region, leading to clear skies and dry weather Monday through Wednesday.

As the high pressure shifts further off the East Coast on Thursday, light southerly return flow will allow a brief moderation in temperatures. However, a potent northern-stream shortwave will drive a strong reinforcing cold front through Eastern Kentucky Thursday night, potentially bringing another surge of cooler air heading into Friday.

In terms of sensible weather, daytime highs will generally range from the upper 60s to mid-70s through much of the period, before moderating into the mid to upper 70s Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will generally drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s. The main exception will be Monday night and Tuesday night, when clear skies and light to calm winds create ideal radiational cooling conditions. Under this setup, ridge tops will hold in the mid-40s while sheltered valleys dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period and will last well into the night. A bit of valley fog is forecast this morning in southeast KY, but it is expected to be fairly limited in extent and should not affect TAF sites. A cold front will be arriving from the north this afternoon and will bring rising rain chances and worsening ceilings. Instability is sufficient for a few thunderstorms, and these are handled with PROB30 groups.

Winds will be light tonight but increasing from the south, then become southwesterly at 5 to 10 kts near or shortly after sunrise Friday morning, gradually veering northerly through the afternoon and evening with the passage of the cold front. Southwesterly LLWS has also been added at some sites for a few hours this morning straddling sunrise until the low-level southwesterly jet mixes out beginning 13z-15z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.