textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering spotty showers exit southward by early afternoon today, with clearing skies and cooler highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

- Dry, early autumn weather settles in for Friday through the weekend, with daytime highs in the 70s and chilly nighttime lows in the 40s, the coldest since mid-May.

- A warming trend arrives early next week, bringing high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and returning rain chances by Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 532 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026

The long-term period opens Friday evening with a closed ~572 dam low off the Mid-Atlantic coast, nearly vertically stacked over a ~995 mb surface low. An upstream 500 hPa ridge extends from the western Gulf Coast northward into northern Ontario. This is mirrored at the surface by a high pressure center extending from southern Quebec to over the Great Lakes. This setup will be keeping dry, cool air feeding into the Coalfields on a light northeasterly flow.

The pattern changes little through Sunday night--dry, cool air continues to feed into our region on a light northeasterly flow. With 850 hPa temperatures holding not far from 10-12C and dew points in the 40s, this will favor daily highs reaching into the 70s in most places while nighttime lows dip into the 40s each night. Some of the coldest northern hollows (e.g., West Liberty, Sandy Hook) could in fact dip into the lower 40s, per COOP MOS guidance. Friday night-Sunday night will almost certainly yield the coldest temperatures eastern Kentucky has seen since mid-May.

By Monday, the upper-level low finally begins to fill in earnest and drift away to the northeast while the 500 hPa ridge to our west begins to shift east and break down ahead of another 500 hPa trough translating through the western and central CONUS. Consequently, the aforementioned surface high pressure will shift far enough east for winds to veer southerly and bring increasing warmth and moisture back to eastern Kentucky for Tuesday and Wednesday. That will mean not only the return of rain chances by Wednesday, but also temperatures moderating back to above normal-- Wednesday highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s after morning lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026

Outside of some VFR over the Big Sandy, mainly MVFR to IFR stratus ceilings with some patchy fog are noted across eastern Kentucky at the 06Z TAF issuance. An inverted surface trough lingers over far eastern Kentucky and could support a few more showers or even a rumble of thunder through daybreak -- a TEMPO group was included with the SJS TAF to account for this concern. Sustained improvement in the ceilings is not expected until during the day on Thursday when the trough finally begins to fade and drier air filters in on a northeasterly flow. Winds will generally be around 5 kts or less from the northeast through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.