textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and mainly dry weather persists through Thursday.

- Wintry precipitation is possible late Thursday night into Friday, with the greatest chances along and south of the Mtn Pkwy where the Friday morning commute could be impacted.

- The pattern is expected to remain active through the weekend and perhaps the middle of next week as well, though long term forecast confidence in details remains low.

UPDATE

Issued at 614 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

The early evening update is out. Low clouds are retreating north across northeastern Kentucky currently as low-level 925-mb winds are increasing out of the south and southwest. However, the passage of a weak cold front later tonight will allow for low clouds to move back across eastern Kentucky. Forecast changes were minor, but may not be quick enough in moving the low clouds out of our CWA over the next few hours to the north of I-64.

LONG TERM

(Friday afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

The forecast period begins with a surface low-pressure system tracking northeastward from the Tennessee Valley, traversing the CWA. This system straddles the short-term and extended forecast periods. We have opted to segment the discussion based on the phasing transition from wintry precipitation to all rain. Consequently, this discussion begins Friday afternoon, where warm frontal passage and diurnal warming will support precipitation primarily as rain. The system is forecast to exit the region by late Saturday morning. However, a brief period of wintry mix remains plausible on the back side of the departing system as cold-air advection returns to the region. Surface high pressure builds into the area following the systems departure. Nevertheless, upper-level southwesterly flow will maintain relatively mild temperatures for Saturday.

An upper-level trough stalled over the Hudson Bay area and an impinging shortwave trough moving off the Rocky Mountains will interact beginning Sunday, driving the weather pattern from Sunday through late Monday. The first of these perturbations is associated with a dry cold front extending from the Hudson Bay trough. A key feature is the zone of baroclinicity that the secondary low-pressure system, originating from the Rockies, can track along. This secondary system is more moisture-rich and should yield higher probabilities for rain and snow beginning early Sunday morning and persisting through late Monday morning. Precipitation type (p-type) will be temperature-driven, with daytime temperatures generally supporting rain, while overnight temperatures will favor a wintry mix or snow. Model confidence is low regarding thermal profiles and the precise track of the low-pressure center. Therefore, little confidence is placed in deterministic snowfall totals. Behind this system, surface high pressure will rebuild across the area for Tuesday, but model trends indicate another system approaching by the end of the forecast period.

The period will be characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances traversing the area, bringing an array of precipitation types followed by interludes of high pressure. Temperatures are generally forecast to remain below average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 620 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

Low-MVFR cigs should continue to move north of the TAF sites through this evening, with high clouds moving over the region otherwise. VFR conditions should prevail in most areas until between 04z to 12z, generally from west to east and north to south, when low-MVFR and/or IFR cigs are likely to begin to spread back into the area as a cold front approaches and passes. The more southern TAF sites, KLOZ and KSME, and areas nearer to the VA border and TN border may largely return to VFR conditions by the afternoon Thursday, with less certainty for the remainder of the TAF sites as to when cigs will improve. Light west to southwest winds will prevail during the first 12 hours of the period and then a gradual shift to the west and then northwest at around 5KT after the weak cold frontal passage can be expected.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.