textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather and widespread rain shower chances return late tonight into Sunday.

- Thunderstorms on Sunday could produce locally heavy rain, potentially leading to localized flooding, along with strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

- Expect cooler than normal temperatures to begin the work week as broad troughing dominates the weather pattern aloft.

- Unsettled weather is poised to return for the middle to later part of the new week. Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall are possible Thursday.

UPDATE

Issued at 843 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026

Early evening obs have been blended into the forecast, resulting in a faster drop in temperatures and faster increase in high clouds.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026

There is reasonable agreement among the various model suites to begin the long term period. That said, we will see a drier and cooler airmass settling across the Ohio Valley Monday under northwest flow. This will keep highs in the low to mid 70s for many locations and this is about 10 degrees below normal for JKL. This drier weather will roll on at least through Tuesday making for a good time for outdoor activities.

After a drier and cooler pattern, we will see a warm front progress northward by midweek. This will usher in a warmer and moist airmass across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This front will then sag southward as a cold front by Thursday. The pattern will likely be more mesoscale driven at times, with characteristics of a MCS like pattern. This makes predictability on the lower side, but either way the pattern will become increasingly more active especially by Thursday given the synoptic features at play. Some of the guidance suggests decent chance of seeing MUCAPE values climb to around 2000- 3000 J/kg Thursday afternoon. The effective shear will be a bit more lack luster at around 30-35 knots, but this could allow for at least some organization of convection that develops. Overall the main threat at this point would be damaging winds given the high freezing levels noted while sampling area forecast soundings. That said, there would be a risk of heavy rainfall as well, with the aforementioned high freezing levels and PWATs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range (Values running around 90th percentile or higher for this time of year). There is also a notable strengthening 850 mb jet through the late afternoon and evening. This setup bares watching through the week to see how the guidance trends. This boundary will move southward to end the week and this would lead to drier weather by late next week into the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026

VFR conditions prevailed area wide at the start of the period will last well into the night. Won't rule out some valley fog overnight, especially in southeast KY, but it shouldn't affect TAF sites. The main concern will be the possibility of showers/thunderstorms arriving from the west before dawn and then occurring at times on Sunday. Confidence in timing for any given location is low. That being the case, it's been addressed using PROB30 and TEMPO groups, with prevailing groups remaining VFR. MVFR and localized IFR can be expected when/where the more significant precip occurs.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.