textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A modest cold frontal passage tonight and early Saturday will result in briefly cooler (but still mild) temperatures to start the weekend. Unseasonably warm temperatures then make a comeback for Sunday.

- A strong cold front will bring us back to the reality of winter on Monday. The front will bring rain showers Sunday night, which might briefly change to snow before tapering off on Monday. However, no meaningful snow accumulation is forecast. - Wind gusts near 40 mph may occur late Sunday into Monday in association with the approach and passage of the second cold front.

UPDATE

Issued at 1055 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025

Radar returns are still isolated to scattered at best. There is a thin line of showers pushing southward across the northern CWA, which may be the frontal boundary itself. Based on neighboring radars, this looks to be the last real push in the precipitation across the CWA. Continuing to monitor the cloud cover. Guidance has suggested, even since yesterday, that low clouds (LIFR TO IFR) will remain in place through much of the overnight. However, so far, some of the lowest clouds are beginning to mix out and a mid- level deck is taking hold. This mainly impacts the TAF sites, but will be something to continue to watch and update if need be. Otherwise, temperatures are in good shape and winds are starting to wind down across the area. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 731 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025

Radar returns have become cellular in nature, but are very sparse. Still looking for more development this evening, but have backed off a bit on the POP, with nothing above chance category in the forecast area for tonight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 344 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025

Spring-like warmth could still set daily records on Sunday before an arctic cold front brings 2025 to a close on a much colder note. The long-term period begins Sunday morning with a 500 hPa ridge axis extending from the Florida Keys northward across West Virginia and beyond into Quebec. Upstream, a northern stream trough is digging deeply along the eastern slopes of the Rockies while phasing with southern stream energy from the vicinity of California. At the surface, this trough will support an intensifying low in the Kansas/Missouri/Iowa vicinity, with an associated warm front surging northward across the Ohio Valley and a potent trailing arctic front surging southward through the High Plains.

Over the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields, the warm front will quickly lift north of the area Sunday morning with the system's developing warm conveyor belt jet. Warm, moist southwesterly return flow behind the front will buoy 925 hPa temperatures back to 15-16C area-wide (as per the LREF mean) by later in the day. If good mixing up to 925 hPa is realized, this would place Sunday's record high temperatures at both KJKL and KLOZ in jeopardy. The primary hazards are expected Sunday night into Monday as the low pressure system wraps up and continues to deepen as it moves over the Great Lakes, sweeping the trailing cold front across the Ohio Valley. Aside from a sudden drop in temperatures of the magnitude of 45 to 50 F over a 24 to 36 hour period, GFS BUFKIT mixed layer momentum transfer values of 30-40 kts from late Sunday into early Monday should be supportive of a period of strong winds potentially nearing or exceeding advisory criteria with the cold front (this potential is corroborated by a number of the individual LREF ensemble members). Another period of gusty westerly winds (though likely not quite as strong) is expected during the day on Monday as strong CAA and diurnal heating lead to steep lapse rates and efficient momentum mixing. Additionally, guidance shows up to a few tens of J/kg of MUCAPE with high shear, so low-topped convection cannot be ruled out with the arctic cold front's passage (most likely between 06Z and 15Z on Monday). Behind the front, temperatures dive, dropping to -11 to -12C at 925 hPa in the LREF mean by 12Z Tuesday. Post-frontal low-level flow should remain westerly enough to divert most Great Lakes moisture northeast of the area, keeping post-frontal snow shower and flurry activity limited even in the strong cold air advection regime. Thereafter, substantial model disagreement emerges mid- to-late week with regard to how the 500 hPa trough evolves over the eastern half of the continent. The overall mean guidance supports a fairly rapid easing in the cold by Wednesday (LREF mean 925 hPa temperatures approach 0C), but there is moderate confidence for another cold surge of uncertain intensity on New Years Day into Friday (LREF 925 hPa 10th-90th percentile temperature spread increases to 15-20C for both days).

In sensible weather terms, near record to record warmth will prevail on Sunday (ECMWF EFI values of 0.6 to 0.8 indicating unusual to highly unusual warmth both day and night) before temperatures tumble well below normal early next week. Temperatures surging through the 60s and into the lower 70s can be expected in most locations on Sunday, though a few mid 70s readings cannot be ruled out near Lake Cumberland. For reference, the record high maximum temperature for JKL is 71F (set in 1984) and 72F at LOZ (set in 1984/2015). Strengthening winds late Sunday will herald the return of gusty showers late Sunday night/early Monday. Temperatures then tumble throughout the day on Monday, switching any lingering rain showers over to a few flurries. No impactful accumulations are expected, but temperatures will still fall to the upper 10s to lower 20s by late Monday night. Expect high temperatures struggling to reach the freezing mark on Tuesday. A brief moderation back towards normal appears likely for Wednesday, but a renewed surge of colder temperatures now appears more possible for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 652 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025

MVFR conditions (due to ceilings) prevailed at the start of the period. Spotty sprinkles were likely occurring.

The MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the evening, with scattered showers developing and carrying into the overnight hours. The showers should taper off before dawn, but the trade off is probably a reduction to IFR conditions for most places due to ceilings. This eventually gives way to rising ceilings and a forecast of mainly MVFR conditions around mid day, with VFR in some places by late in the day. There is decreasing confidence in the flight categories after showers taper off, with the forecast representing the best estimate at this point.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.