textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist through Saturday.

- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new work week.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2026

Mid morning conditions have been blended into the forecast without any substantive changes.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 524 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2026

At the start of the long term period, midlevel ridging will dominate over the Southeast, and embedded within flow around the ridge periphery, a shortwave trough will be initially located over Oklahoma. This wave will translate northeastward with time, working to flatten the ridge somewhat. Meanwhile, a closed low will be located over the Pacific Northwest, with troughing over the Pacific Coast. At the surface, an area of high pressure will sit over the Great Lakes, with a lingering cold front draped across the forecast area.

On Halloween, this cold front will initially sag south, although this boundary will become less defined with time as a weak surface low develops in the vicinity of western Kentucky by Saturday afternoon, a response to the aforementioned shortwave as it continues to lift to the northeast. Atmospheric moisture should tick up around this time, with LREF mean PW values climbing into the 0.8-1 in range, roughly the 80th percentile or higher compared to climatology. Even so, this shortwave is expected to dampen with time, and rain appears highly unlikely through Saturday evening, with both deterministic and ensemble guidance favoring no impacts from this weak system beyond increasing cloud cover. Halloween's highs should range from the upper 60s to low 70s, with overnight temperatures remaining mild (in the 50s) as extensive clouds inhibit cooling. Rain chances do return to the forecast by Sunday as a more defined shortwave approaches the area, with PoPs peaking in the 40-50% range on Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Depending on the timing of this wave, highs could be substantially cooler than currently forecast, particularly if rain begins earlier than anticipated. The 00z LREF shows around a 10 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile temperatures on Sunday afternoon, demonstrating this high uncertainty. Given this uncertainty, NBM output has been retained for now, with forecast highs in the upper 60s in most locations, although temperatures could trend warmer with a drier solution or cooler with a wetter solution in subsequent forecasts.

Next week will feature a more active pattern. Although rain should exit the area by Monday morning as the shortwave progresses eastward, energy from the closed low originally over the Pacific Northwest will phase with a secondary system lifting northeast from the Pacific into the Southwest. The result will be a substantial trough which will push east with time. Ridging will briefly attempt to build back into the forecast area in the wake of the previous shortwave, largely suppressing rain chances on Monday, even as cloud cover lingers. By later in the day on Tuesday, however, rain chances look to tick up yet again as this system approaches. The exact trajectory of this system remains highly uncertain, with substantial spread in the positioning and timing of this feature. Regardless, with such a dynamic system, rain appears likely at some point, even if PoPs are a bit broad brushed due to this uncertainty for now.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 733 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2026

VFR conditions were present area-wide at the 12Z TAF issuance, and, aside from river valley fog through mid-morning and again late tonight, will prevail through the period. The fog will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, but should not affect TAF sites. Winds will be light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.