textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend, with near record heat possible Thursday.

- The heat and humidity could fuel a few thunderstorms in portions of the area at times over the next several days, with the probability then rising early next week as the upper level ridge currently dominating the area starts to weaken and retreat.

UPDATE

Issued at 1038 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026

Minor updates were made to Sky and PoPs through the afternoon. In the near-term (i.e., the next few hours) PoPs were raised north of Interstate 64 as a cluster of showers will graze northern Fleming County.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. With some returns just off to the northwest have added some small PoPs up there for the next few hours. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 430 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026

The extended portion of the forecast looks to be on track with the idea of the large 5h ridge weakening and drifting southwest and out of the region enough through the weekend for more intrusions of energy at mid levels. This should keep a threat of mainly unorganized convection in the picture even as we remain unseasonable warm.

The previous long term discussion follows:

High pressure and associated ridge axis aloft over eastern Kentucky will retrograde and weaken with time, allowing for increasingly faster west-northwesterly flow aloft through the Ohio Valley as the long-term period progresses through the weekend.

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday as strong mid- level heights exceeding 597 dm gradually decrease, though low chances for showers and thunderstorms are warranted across parts of mainly central and northeastern Kentucky and perhaps extending south to near the Cumberland Mountains in the afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area, with max heat indices in the vicinity of 100 degrees.

A passing disturbance to the north and associated jet streak will push a cold front far enough south Friday to bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances across the area along with a brief modest cooldown in the northern half of the forecast area, but highs will still reach the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Warm advection quickly returns for Saturday, with low PoPs and a return to highs back into the upper 80s to lower 90s, which looks to extend through Sunday before a potential cooldown as an upper trough and associated cold front move into the area and increase rain chances. While models show broad 40-50 PoPs Monday into Monday night with relatively good agreement in a system moving from the central CONUS to the Great Lakes region, model ensemble systems show significant disagreements on the strength, track, and timing of the parent trough. Resolving these differences will likely play a key role in whether those PoPs trend upwards or downwards as this period nears.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with only a couple of exceptions. Valley fog will impact some locations tonight, especially southeast Kentucky, beginning around 04z-06z and bringing localized IFR or worse conditions, but likely not impacting any of the TAF sites. This fog will clear out by 14z Thursday morning.

In the near term, a few thunderstorms may occur near and north of Interstate 64 late this afternoon and into the evening, bringing isolated sub-VFR conditions, but with probabilities too low to include in the TAFs as even a PROB30 for now. Meanwhile, winds will be light and variable through the period - away from any odd thunderstorm.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.