textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected from today through Friday. Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a distinct potential for strong to damaging wind gusts - especially today and tonight. - Instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding - particularly today through Thursday.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for the northeastern 2/3rds of eastern Kentucky until 8 AM EDT on Wednesday, primarily for flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 917 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

A combination of severe weather and flash flooding still remains possible today. Current radar imagery shows a complex of storms advancing south southeast through Indiana and Ohio, with our northern counties expected to be under the gun in the coming hours. The upstream environment remains very potent, with the 12Z KILN sounding showing extreme instability (with observed MUCAPE values in excess for 4700 J/kg) and DCAPE values supportive of severe wind gusts. The only limiting factor for storms presently is lingering surface stability; however, current satellite imagery shows relatively clear skies over the majority of the forecast area, and by the time this complex approaches eastern Kentucky, any remaining inhibition should be long gone. Given this environment and ongoing severe convection upstream, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for Bath, Rowan, and Fleming Counties. Although this watch was limited to just our northern counties for now, an expansion of this watch may become necessary in the coming hours, and future radar trends will bear monitoring.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the near term PoPs per the radar. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 455 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

The most current model data continues to present a pattern aloft that favors the formation of storm clusters - most of which will impinge on the weather for eastern Kentucky through the bulk of the week. Right now, SPC has continued a severe threat into Thursday for the bulk of our area. Meanwhile, WPC continues to highlight excessive rain threats through Friday - though the concern is higher for earlier in the week. Will continue to highlight this in messaging and social media. Please keep monitoring this developing, likely impactful, weather situation.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Active weather will continue in the long term period, with multiple bouts of thunderstorms probable. However, confidence in details is still very elusive.

We will start the period still under west northwest flow in the mid- upper levels, near the southern edge of faster flow, and with subtropical ridging just to our south southwest. A very warm and humid surface air mass will remain in place and give considerable instability. This completes the setup for MCSs to develop where there's enough focus from initiating features. The forecasting problems are that these features are relatively weak in the big scheme of things, and also that future convection relies in part on the evolution of difficult to forecast prior convection. Have used a broadbrushed forecast for POP through Friday based on blended models.

The GFS and ECMWF both show potential for a weak cold front to slip south southwest through the JKL forecast area by the weekend as a weak low rotates through a northeast CONUS trough and enhances the upper level flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Should this come to pass, there could be a break in the precip potential at the start of the weekend. Any relief from the muggy air mass would probably be minimal, as the upper troughing quickly departs and ridging builds into our area from the southwest during the weekend and supports hot and humid weather.

Models then show another impulse moving through the faster flow to our north and northeast, which suppresses the ridging back to the southwest early in the new week. This would allow another weak cold front to push in from the north with an increase in the POP in the neighborhood of Monday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

VFR categories still are holding for the 12Z TAF issuance, and aside from some localized valley fog in the far southeast there is little to mar the start of this morning. However, we are primed for a very active period of weather through the aviation cycle with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected to roll over the bulk of the area - likely hitting KSJS and KSYM more often and for longer duration than the rest. These thunderstorm clusters will advance through the region from north to south or northeast to southwest - one this morning and another one or two during the afternoon and evening with yet another late at night. However, the forecast models are still performing poorly with regards to convective timing and placement. Therefore, forecast confidence remains low and as a result have included some generous PROB30 groups to cover the threats with more specificity hard to confidently come by, at this point. Meanwhile, away from any thunderstorms, winds will be light at less then 10 kts - generally from the south to southwest. Gusts within a thunderstorm could easily be variable at 30 kts and substantially higher if the storm is a severe one or on the leading edge of an organized storm cluster.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 069-086>088-104-106>120.