textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm weather expected mid-week, with afternoon highs returning to around 90F today and Thursday.

- Mainly dry conditions continue through Thursday, with only a low afternoon storm chance (30% or lower) in southwestern counties.

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend and persist through early next week, with temperatures returning to near normal values in the 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 343 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026

Overall the various models and ensembles are coming into reasonable agreement for the long term period. We will begin the period stuck in between somewhat zonal flow in the Great Lakes and ridging building in from Bermuda. Despite some ridging from the southeast expect more susceptibility to shortwaves from the quasi- zonal flow in the northern portions of the Ohio Valley. This will lead to to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly tied to diurnal heating. Moisture will surge north and east toward the Ohio Valley through the end of the week into the weekend with PWAT values climbing toward the 1.5 to 2 inch range. This will be running in the 90th+ percentile for this time of year based on the mean of the major ensemble systems. Given this surge in PWATs and potential for multiple rounds of convection, WPC has put the area into the marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Friday and Saturday.

There will be a shift in the pattern as we go into early next week with even a lull in rain chances on Monday. Then a more well defined cold front starts to push toward the Ohio Valley by Tuesday and this will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. There is even some guidance that shows this cold front could arrive in parts of southeast Kentucky Tuesday afternoon, with a decent surge of MUCAPE and some weaker but notable shear that could help to initiate some stronger convection. There is also some weaker signals showing up in the machine leaning and AI convective products. However, given the period would think predictability is a bit too low to start messaging this too much at this point in the forecast process. This cold front will usher in a drier and cooler airmass by midweek, with highs in the lower 80s and noticeably dryer air in place as dewpoints dip into the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites at the 06Z issuance time. Most locations will remain VFR through the period as surface high pressure lingers, though some of the river valleys could experience fog this morning. SJS appears to be most likely TAF site to be affected (warranting a TEMPO group there) but cannot also rule out eventual fog impacts at SME or LOZ, though confidence was too low to mention at those locations for the TAF issuance. The fog will lift by 13Z and 14Z Wednesday morning and we will see initially mostly clear skies. Then expect more diurnally driven cumulus to develop in the late morning and early afternoon, particularly over southern terminals. Based on the forecast sounding data these will remain above the MVFR levels at around 4 kft. The winds will remain variable and generally below 5 knots through the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.