textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of rain showers continue through Saturday morning as a series of fronts move through the region.

- Locally heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms are possible on Friday and Friday night.

- Active weather continues into next week, with a strong cold front expected to cross the Commonwealth by mid-week.

- Below normal temperatures are likely for the end of November and the start of December, although the precipitation forecast remains uncertain that far out.

UPDATE

Issued at 1041 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Showers have again become more numerous in our southern counties, and the forecast has this in hand. No substantive forecast changes were made.

UPDATE Issued at 829 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Steady light rain has largely shifted south of our southern counties. Scattered light showers have developed further north recently, but latest model guidance is not as bullish for high POPs tonight as it was earlier, especially in our northern counties. In light of this and latest radar trends, have backed off on the POP for tonight, especially in our northern counties.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 600 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

The long term forecast period opens with the passage of a cold front, although forecast guidance has trended slightly slower with its progression into Eastern Kentucky relative to this time yesterday. The slower FROPA will allow for widespread pre-frontal rain showers, and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms, to continue into Saturday morning, and PoPs increased in the latest run of the NBM in response. Rain chances are then forecast to taper off from NW to SE on Saturday afternoon as surface flow shift from a westerly to northerly orientation. Showers could linger for longer on the NW- facing slopes of SE KY, especially near the VA state line, but skies should clear for most of the forecast area by Saturday evening as a drier and cooler airmass advects in. Expect a muted diurnal temperature curve and a NW-SE temperature gradient as a result, with highs in the 50s north of the Mountain Parkway, and in the lower 60s further south. Temperatures will quickly drop off after dark, but remain above freezing all night (forecast lows are in the mid to upper 30s), setting the stage for patchy fog development overnight into Sunday morning. Antecedent wetness could allow said fog to expand beyond the conventional river valleys, but the fog should quickly burn off on Sunday morning under sunnier skies.

As the mid/upper level trough responsible for the previous few days' active weather propagates east, ridging builds into the Ohio River Valley. At the surface, this translates to a broad surface high passing through the region. Aloft, it allows (relatively weaker) northwesterly flow to continue on Sunday before backing towards the west on Monday. These synoptics, paired with midlevel height rises, point towards drier weather and moderating temperatures early next week. Expect a seasonably pleasant day on Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s under mostly sunny skies. Modest ridge/valley temperature splits are possible on Sunday night, with cooler valleys in the upper 30s and ridgetops near/just above 40. Monday looks slightly warmer; the continued eastward synoptic progression will veer winds throughout the column towards a more southerly orientation. This favors highs near/above 60 area-wide, but also increasing cloud cover on Monday evening out ahead of a mid-week storm system.

Rain chances increase on Monday night as the flow aloft turns southwesterly in response to an approaching shortwave trough. That trough, and its associated surface low/cold front combo will move through the region on Tuesday, albeit with notable deamplification. Despite the seasonably mild temperatures (AM lows in the upper 40s and PM highs in the low/mid 60s), forecast instability looks meager. The currently-available model soundings are unimpressive, and most of the pre-frontal activity will come in the form of generic rain showers. A tightening pressure gradient could allow for some breezy winds on Tuesday afternoon, but widespread hazardous weather appears unlikely.

A deeper midlevel trough is forecast to dig into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and then close off into a vertically-stacked low pressure system. The related, and likely occluded, surface low will then move over the Northern Great Lakes, dragging a secondary cold front into the Ohio River Valley. Guidance depicts different dynamics aloft and different amounts of moisture in the column ahead of this secondary front, which leads to decreasing precipitation forecast confidence towards the end of the period. In this forecast package, the baseline NBM guidance for light rain chances continuing into Wednesday were retained. As temperatures drop off behind this secondary front on Wednesday night, the blend tried to bring in freezing rain. This is not a favorable meteorological set-up for ice, and the grids were accordingly changed to a plain, cool rain.

Thanksgiving Day looks to be drier behind the secondary frontal passage, marking the beginning of a cooler pattern for the holiday weekend. The CPC's extended-range outlook hints at a colder and potentially wintery pattern for the end of November and the start of December, but it is far too early to provide specific forecast details. Interests are accordingly encouraged not to read too far into any one model run's winter precipitation output at this moment in time, as deterministic forecast guidance will remain bouncy for quite some time at this extended temporal range.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025

Just before TAF issuance, conditions were mainly VFR over the northern portion of the JKL forecast area, transitioning to largely MVFR further south over the Cumberland drainage basin. Scattered showers were ongoing, mainly over southeast KY. Deteriorating conditions are forecast overnight, with most places expecting to be IFR or worse by dawn. This persists into the day on Friday, with rain and showers also developing. General improvement to mainly MVFR conditions is expected from south to north during the afternoon. A few thunderstorms could also occur in the afternoon or evening. With that said, confidence in the details of the forecast is below average, with the forecast being more suggestive of trends expected.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.