textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms return today. A few strong to severe storms are possible, bringing a threat for an isolated tornado or damaging wind gusts.

- An unsettled and wet pattern continues through the Memorial Day weekend and into next week with repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms.

- Heavy downpours are likely with this activity. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected through Saturday morning with locally higher amounts and flash flooding concerns, especially along and north of the I-64 corridor.

- Despite the rain, it will be warm and humid through the holiday weekend with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with PoPs per the current radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

An amplified and blocky long wave pattern will remain in control through next week. A ridge axis will remain anchored across the western Atlantic through Tuesday, while a broad trough gradually makes its way from south central Canada through the Plains to the Ohio Valley and eventually New England. Meanwhile, a deep trough will move across the West Coast, with an upper level low drifting south over the Great Basin. By the middle of next week, a REX-type blocking pattern will be in place across the center of the CONUS, with the low centered over the southern Plains, and the high positioned near western Ontario. This will set up a prolonged period of unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky, as a surface frontal boundary gets hung up in the vicinity of the region. PWATs will be running above the 95th percentile compared to climatology for much of the period. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, as successive days of more significant rainfall could eventually compromise some basins, despite the drier antecedent conditions and generally well below normal streamflows.

On Saturday night, better forcing and deeper moisture will be exiting off to our northeast, with rain chances diminishing through the night. Another short wave will be moving through the Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night. While the core of this energy remains to our north, some 500 mb height falls, heating, and the nearby surface boundary should focus numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across the area. Again, a gradual diminishment in activity is expected after dusk with the loss of heating. Monday through Wednesday, as short wave energy rotates northward from the southern Plains, this will likely sharpen up the remnant surface boundary, potentially allowing for more organized bouts of showers and thunderstorms across the region. There still remains plenty of uncertainty regarding the details, given the complexity of the pattern. By Thursday, rain chances will revert back to more of a diurnally influenced regime, as eastern Kentucky becomes more under control of the ridging aloft.

Temperatures will average above normal through the period, with highs averaging from the upper 70s to around 80 through Tuesday, before warming to the lower 80s for Wednesday and mid 80s by Thursday. Lows each night will average in the 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026

Showers are moving into the area from the south as the accompany warm front lifting back into our area. Still some low clouds and fog common at issuance time for the northeast terminals while the southern ones were clearer but with more moderate showers moving through helping to reduce visibility. The front progresses through the area today and it results in rounds of convection with thunderstorms expected to be more abundant in the afternoon. most sites will gradually improve into the MVFR range with occasional lowering during more robust showers or storms. The thunderstorms are possible through most of the time but will likely be most prevalent in the the afternoon/early evening hours. Winds will remain light through the period, generally under 10 kts - primarily out of the northeast initially then veering southeast to south with time.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ044-050>052-104.