textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mainly clear skies, mild days, and chilly nights will persist into early next week.

- Light, patchy frost may develop early this morning and again late tonight in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 235 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

At the beginning of the long term period, an expansive and highly amplified midlevel ridge will be located over the central CONUS; meanwhile, deep troughing will be digging into the western CONUS, with another trough over the East Coast, associated with a deep closed low off the coast of Maine and another coastal impulse near the Outer Banks. Although this troughing will shift over time, such an amplified ridge in the middle of the country, this setup will lead to a very stagnant weather pattern locally.

At the surface, eastern Kentucky will find itself under the influence of persistent high pressure, which should keep weather quite uneventful through early next week. Each day, ample sunshine will allow high temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s, and each night, clear skies and light winds will allow for moderate ridge/valley temperature splits to develop. MOS guidance suggests that lows in the valleys will generally bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s, and given such a dry air mass, this magnitude of cooling seems reasonable. In fact, raw NBM dewpoints are likely too moist given relatively dry air just above the surface, especially in the absence of appreciable moisture advection. Thus, a drier dewpoint blend was favored, with resultant dewpoints in the low to mid 40s during the day, much more in line with ensemble guidance. As usual, as our valleys cool efficiently overnight, fog formation is expected.

By early next week, an upper level low from the West Coast will approach the central CONUS ridge. As these features interact, the ridge looks to flatten, and by Tuesday, flow aloft will be more southwesterly, which will work to increase mid and upper level moisture. Meanwhile, at the surface, an area of low pressure will progress through Canada, with a cold front draped across the Great Lakes region. This front will attempt to sag south towards eastern Kentucky, but with limited upper level support, it currently seems unlikely the front will reach our area by the end of the forecast period. Thus, the most consequential change in the pattern will likely be increased cloud cover on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

VFR conditions roll on underneath nearby surface high pressure for much of the period. There will be the potential valley fog once again tonight mainly confined to the river valleys. The winds will remain light generally below 5 knots.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.