textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold weather will finish out the weekend, followed by a moderation during the workweek.

- Most of the area can expect some rain and snow beginning Tuesday and lasting into early Wednesday, with minor snow accumulations possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 1226 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

Temps are slow to warm and the fcst max for this afternoon has been lowered slightly.

UPDATE Issued at 909 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

Have dropped the Cold Weather Advisory which was in place near/north of I-64.

UPDATE Issued at 843 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

Have updated today's sky condition forecast based on latest satellite imagery and model runs. Flying blind without radar (KJKL WSR 88D is down), based on surrounding radars and forecast soundings with low level moisture in the DGZ, have assumed that flurries are ongoing where low clouds are present. Forecast soundings suggest flurries will taper off today and clouds will decrease.

UPDATE Issued at 627 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

The pre-dawn update mainly refreshed the hourly temperature grids, but also made edits to Sky grids to account for some clearing occurring in the greater Lake Cumberland region.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 359 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

Monday night, a shortwave spills out of the Northern Plains while a southern stream shortwave also works into the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday, these two shortwaves phase just west of the area. Snow showers look to start early Tuesday, along and north of the I-64 corridor. As the day unfolds, temperatures warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s. This will result in mostly rain across the area, but there will be periods of a rain-snow mix. Wintry precip such as freezing rain is unlikely at this time, as the probability of 850-mb temperatures being above 0C are zero across the area, in multiple ensembles. In simpler terms, the "warm-nose" that was continuously mentioned with the previous ice storm in late January, does not exist. Rain and snow showers should taper off as the overall system progresses off to the east, with minor snow accumulations expected. A larger trough axis moves through the state Wednesday night, leading to temperatures dropping into the single digits to teens, north to south Wednesday night.

Thursday looks slightly cooler, and drier with conditions ranging from the upper 20s in the north to mid 30s in the south. Models and ensembles are showing another Great Lakes low, with trailing cold front through the Ohio Valley. This cold front may bring the areas next round of active weather Friday and Friday night.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1226 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

MVFR conditions (due mainly to ceilings) and a few flurries persisted in extreme eastern KY at TAF issuance, with VFR conditions elsewhere. The flurries and ceilings will dissipate this afternoon, leaving VFR conditions with mainly clear skies from tonight into Monday. Ceilings around 6-7K feet AGL are expected to develop during the day Monday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.