textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue at times into the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area through early Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 249 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

The period begins with a westerly mid-level jet stream across the Ohio River Valley, including eastern Kentucky, ahead of a mid-level low/trough and stacked surface low over northeastern Missouri and western Illinois, with this feature only moving to the Lower Ohio River Valley by Sunday morning as the circulation becomes detached from the upper flow and becomes trapped by a massive upper high that develops across the western and northern CONUS late this weekend into next week. With continued warm advection and a quasi-stationary front across the area, a risk for flash flooding with the potential for rounds of heavy rain will remain through much of Saturday into Saturday night.

Models strengthen this upper high to ~602-dm centered somewhere over the MO Valley through early next week before it begins to gradually weaken in place through the middle of next week. Most models are in agreement in suppressing the remnants of the trapped mid-level low and associated warm advection southward with time, with a gradual diminishing of PoPs and Sky cover from north to south from the second half of this weekend through the middle of next week as drier northeasterly mid-level flow advects in from the northeast. A marginal flash flood threat may persist across far southern/southeastern parts of the forecast area into Sunday, where better instability and moisture may linger along with relatively weak flow aloft supporting slow storm motions.

The gradual drying and clearing trend through the period will also support an increasing trend for high temperatures through the period, but with highs still within a few degrees of normal in the mid to upper 80s by the end of the period, with lows in the 60s each morning.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026

Scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms have started this afternoon and rounds of these showers and storms are expected through this afternoon and evening. There may be a breif lull for a few hours between 00Z and 06Z before more rounds work into the area from the west. Showers and storms will increase in coverage through Friday morning. With the scattered nature of these showers and storms and a degree of uncertainty, PROB30 groups were used through the TAF period. MVFR conditions will be likely with occasional IFR conditions in and around storms. Outside of any storm, winds will be fairly light and occasionally variable or out of the southwest.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.