textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights is expected for the next week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 103 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026

As the long term period opens, a vertically stacked low will be located over eastern Quebec, with broad troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Farther west, midlevel ridging will be centered over the western CONUS. Locally, eastern Kentucky will find itself in a region of inconsequential quasi-zonal flow aloft initially, although by Wednesday, troughing will deepen as an additional closed upper level low pushes southeast through Ontario. Flow aloft will briefly become more northwesterly before the closed Canadian low lifts back northeast, with quasi zonal flow aloft persisting through the end of the work week. By the end of the forecast period, ridging does look to build in more from the east. Perhaps more interestingly, there is some signal that a disturbance may follow the western periphery of this ridge into Kentucky this weekend, although uncertainty remains high this far out.

At the surface, high pressure over southwestern Pennsylvania will keep winds easterly to east northeasterly on Tuesday, maintaining a relatively dry air mass (with dewpoints generally in the 40s across the forecast area). It will feel pleasant, too, with plenty of sunshine and highs ranging from the low to upper 70s roughly from the north to the south. Ideal conditions for radiational cooling will allow for a ridge valley split overnight, with valley temperatures generally falling into the low 40s. Then, as the surface high translates eastward, a new area of high pressure will build to the southwest near the Ozarks, with winds becoming more southwesterly by Wednesday. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, and dewpoints will also tick up a few degrees; even so, by the time that a cold front attempts to approach the area Thursday, atmospheric moisture will be low enough to keep the frontal passage dry. Behind the front, little change in sensible weather is expected, with the biggest pattern shift being a day or so of northerly winds before high pressure again builds in east of the forecast area and winds become more easterly. Regardless, temperatures will still remain above average for this time of year, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

The next chance for rain looks to arrive this weekend, with the most recent model guidance suggesting that a disturbance could track north towards Kentucky around this time, following the edge of the building ridge over the Atlantic Coast. Exact details are sparse at this point, but NBM output suggests chance PoPs by Sunday, and this is corroborated by a signal for notable rain in ensemble guidance; LREF QPF shows around a 50% chance of at least half an inch of rain in our southern counties on Sunday, around the time that anomalous moisture returns to the area (with LREF mean PW values in the 70th to 80th percentile compared to climatology). Of course, this comes with the caveat that these forecast details may change with time, especially this far out.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026

Widespread fog producing sub-IFR conditions is forming across southeastern Kentucky as of 05z, and this fog will impact JKL, SJS, LOZ, and possibly SME until around sunrise, when mixing and light north to northeast winds will begin to occur ahead of a dry cold front that will move south across the area between 11z and 16z. Behind the dry cold front passage Monday morning, VFR conditions under clear skies are expected through the remainder of the TAF period, though valley fog is likely to develop once again near the end of the TAF period across, though not impacting the terminals. Winds will be less than 10 kts through the period, generally out of the north or northeast.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.