textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A more active weather pattern is now upon us, with multiple chances for widespread showers and storms through Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and through tonight - as well as on Wednesday. These will bring some more highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once the frontal boundary finally clears the area late this week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored along with a chance for frost over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 745 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The forecast is on track as the rain continues to dissipate and move out of the area this morning. No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The main change to the start of the long term forecast was to add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures Wednesday and Thursday night with a small to moderate ridge to valley temperature difference anticipated. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast and details remain on track, including the frost potential for Saturday night.

The previous long term discussion follows:

As the long term period opens on Wednesday, a shortwave rotating along the base of the trough over the central CONUS will nudge a deepening surface low to the northeast into the Ohio River region. This will finally force the previously stalled cold front through our area on Wednesday afternoon, triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms. The environment preceding this cold front will heavily depend on the evolution of Tuesdays convection; however, current model consensus suggests that very moist low levels will maintain cloud cover ahead of the cold front on Wednesday. As a result, full destabilization appears unlikely at this time. However, eastern Kentucky will be located beneath an upper level jet streak, providing ample shear (EBWD of 35-45 kts) for convective organization in the event that instability is high enough for robust updraft development. Given this setup, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for far eastern Kentucky, where the frontal passage is most likely to coincide with peak diurnal instability. Machine learning guidance remains rather unenthused about this severe threat, and given questions regarding destabilization, this seems appropriate. Regardless, Wednesday looks to bring another round of measurable rain to much of the area; LREF guidance indicates at least a quarter-inch of rain is likely in our easternmost counties (70-80% chance), and this is without factoring in convection-allowing models. This additional round of rainfall should help to put a dent in our drought conditions before lingering showers exit the forecast area overnight.

Following Wednesdays frontal passage, dry conditions should prevail through Thursday. However, model guidance begins to diverge by Friday afternoon into Saturday. The GFS shows a wave rotating into our area, which would trigger widespread precipitation; in contrast, the ECMWF is less aggressive with this energy, keeping PoPs low for eastern Kentucky. To account for this spread, the NBM has attempted to provide a middle ground of low PoPs across the area on Friday into Saturday. However, actual rain chances depend on the evolution of the upper air pattern, which remains highly uncertain this far out. Regardless, more tranquil weather is expected to return Sunday and persist throughout the remainder of the period.

Beyond precipitation, Wednesdays frontal passage will also usher in unseasonably cool weather for the remainder of the forecast period. This change could prove problematic for any sensitive vegetation, as this pattern supports several opportunities for frost. The first period of concern will be on Thursday night, when the combination of clear skies, light winds, and temperatures falling into the 30s in sheltered hollows could lead to isolated frost formation. Another low confidence frost threat exists on Friday night; however, this remains highly dependent on the progression of the aforementioned wave. In a more aggressive solution, clouds cover and moisture would mitigate frost risk, while a less aggressive solution would favor clearer and drier weather that would once again enable frost formation in sheltered hollows. Regardless, the highest chance for frost formation will occur on Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure builds, clear skies and calm winds should allow temperatures to plummet into the 30s, with decoupled valleys seeing the coolest temperatures. Consequently, agricultural interests are advised to remain weather aware throughout the end of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 815 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

For the 12Z TAF issuance there was a variety of conditions across the area. Some low clouds trail the early morning showers and storms but those are expected to break up to VFR for the bulk of the area by mid morning. Shower and storm chances are then expected to increase again towards the late afternoon evening and the end of the period represented by a PROB30 in most TAFs. The storm chances then return with a warm front from the west late tonight with a potential for MVFR aviation conditions. Winds will be gusty with any storms - generally from the south at 10 to 20 kts this morning then they will remain remain gusty shifting to the southwest - perhaps diminishing a bit with sunset.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.