textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist through Saturday.

- A potential for rain will return by Sunday, with periodic rain chances through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

A cold front continues to sag south of the OH River and is nearing the Interstate 64 corridor at this time. Light southerly or calm winds were occurring ahead of the front, while light north to northeast winds were reported north of it. Bands of mainly high clouds are passing overhead and some fog is present in portions of the KY, Big Sandy, and Cumberland basins. This fog should lift and dissipate within a couple hours after sunrise. Otherwise, the boundary will continue sagging south and a few clouds in the 5 to 6kft agl range cannot be completely ruled out along and/or just behind it as has occurred recently in WV.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 511 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

At the start of the long term period, eastern Kentucky will find itself under southwesterly flow aloft, with an embedded shortwave moving over the area on Saturday evening. Upstream, a second more defined shortwave will be embedded within this flow, initially located over the Plains. Meanwhile, deep troughing will be centered over the Pacific Coast, a pattern which will have implications for Kentucky's weather later in the forecast period. At the surface, an area of high pressure will be located over the Northeast, with southerly to southeasterly winds in eastern Kentucky. Don't get spooked by the initial shortwave; downslope flow will suppress dewpoints, and Halloween evening is expected to be dry. Even so, increasingly southwesterly flow aloft will advect moisture elsewhere in the column, an indication that our rainless period will soon be coming to a close.

A more active pattern will return by the end of the weekend. Rain chances will begin to tick up as early as Sunday morning for our western counties as another shortwave approaches, interacting with a moist atmospheric column. LREF mean PW values will approach 1 inch across the forecast area by Sunday afternoon, representing anomalously high moisture for this time of year (roughly in the 80th percentile or greater compared to climatology). The strength and exact timing of this wave are still in question, with the GFS favoring a stronger shortwave with more widespread rain, while the ECMWF favors a weaker and drier shortwave passage. Introducing additional uncertainty, southerly to southeasterly downslope winds will keep the low levels quite dry in most locations, which could work to suppress rain in the eastern portion of the forecast area. Additionally, in the absence of instability, any rain should be stratiform in nature, limiting overall QPF. Given these factors, ensemble guidance is not particularly enthusiastic about this event; the chance of measurable precipitation through Monday morning ranges from around 70% in our southwestern counties to under 40% closer to the WV border, with the chance of a quarter inch of rain only around 30% at the absolute highest (closer to Lake Cumberland). So, although a chance of rain will return to the forecast, impacts are expected to be low, especially east of I-75. This should keep high temperatures closer to average, in the mid to upper 60s, with mild lows largely in the 50s.

A more impactful system looks to approach the area next week, bringing our next chance for rain. A brief lull in PoPs is expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon as ridging attempts to build back in; however, to the west, the aforementioned deep trough will continue its eastward progression, with the original surface high now well east of the forecast area. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen in the southern Plains by Tuesday, lifting northeast with time as the trough continues to progress. Moisture will be plentiful, with a strong ensemble signal for anomalously high precipitable water; even this far out, LREF mean PW values peak in the 1.1-1.2 inch range, representing the 90th percentile compared to climatology. A shift to more southwesterly winds as the low approaches will also increase dewpoints, mitigating any downslope concerns. Rain chances begin to increase by Wednesday morning, with widespread and persistent rain expected as this system moves through the forecast area, although timing uncertainties mean that PoPs do not exceed 50 percent at any point in this period for now. Even so, confidence is high that the forecast area will receive rain at some point near the end of the period, with the 00Z LREF suggesting at least a 90% chance of measurable rain across the entire forecast area during the Wednesday and Thursday period. Of note, some deterministic guidance does show potent low level flow with this system, associated with a tight pressure gradient over the forecast area. This could lead to higher wind gusts than in previous days, although further details remain uncertain at this stage in the forecast.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2026

VFR conditions were present in many areas at issuance time, while IFR and lower reductions were occurring in valley fog, including at non TAF sites KI35 and K1A6. This fog should gradually lift and dissipate through around 14Z. However, the TAF sites are not expected to be affected. A moisture starved cold front is sagging south into eastern KY and is nearing KSYM. This moisture starved boundary should continue to sag south and near and then pass south of the TN border toward the end of the period. There will be period of increased moisture along and behind it near the 850 mb level, so a brief window of few to sct clouds around 5kft agl cannot be completely ruled out as the front passes as has occurred recently in WV. Otherwise, the main effect of the boundary will be to change the direction of light winds to the north and northeast between roughly 12Z and 00Z and then eventually to the east. A few valley locations in the south could experience MVFR or lower reductions late in the period, but the TAF sites are not expected to be affected.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.