textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through Wednesday.

- A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms remains for all of eastern Kentucky as a strong cold front brings showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- After a sharp cooldown Thursday, mild temperatures return for Friday into the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 303 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

The forecast period begins with an upper-level trough progged over the western Great Lakes, while the associated surface low tracks across the eastern Great Lakes into New England. An attending cold front will be oriented southwest across the Commonwealth toward the Gulf Coast. A cut-off low is forecast to track across the CONUS through the week, influencing the broader synoptic pattern. On the mesoscale, the strong cold front will cross the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms. While the severe weather threat should be waning by the start of the extended period, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out during the frontal passage across the CWA. As the surface low shifts into New England, the cold front will exit the area by early Thursday morning. CAA behind the front will lead to a brief transition to an isolated rain-snow mix. However, this will be short-lived; as temperatures rise along the diurnal curve, any frozen precipitation will quickly revert to rain before ending.

Thursday marks the arrival of surface high pressure and drier conditions. Despite the sunshine, post-frontal CAA will limit afternoon highs to the upper-40s and low-50s. While temperatures remain cool overnight, low-level flow will shift southwesterly, allowing warmer air to advect into the region. This will be manifested on Friday as highs climb into the upper-50s and mid-60s. This warming trend is attributed to the southwesterly flow ahead of a clipper system progged to dive into the northern CONUS and Great Lakes through Friday morning. Because this feature remains well to the north, the local area will stay under the influence of high pressure, maintaining dry weather and warming temperatures through the start of the weekend.

By Sunday, the pattern flips as a Pacific trough ejects off the Rockies and moves across the CONUS, reaching the doorstep of the CWA by Sunday afternoon. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist ahead of the system. Long-term forecast soundings indicate sufficient instability and shear may be in place to support strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon. While specific details remain unresolved, the potential is evident in current model guidance. The surface low will track through the Great Lakes, with FROPA occurring through the day Monday. Similar to the mid-week system, significant cold air is progged to wrap around the backside of the low, leading to a transition from rain to snow Monday afternoon and evening. Behind the departing system, cold high pressure settles in, bringing slightly below-average temperatures to end the period.

The period will be highlighted by two distinct shortwaves separated by a period of high pressure. While temperatures will generally trend above average, cold air advection behind each cold front will bring periodic cooler temperatures and a brief return to winter-like conditions.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday) ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026

VFR conditions were present at the start of the period and will likely last until around sunrise or shortly thereafter. MVFR ceilings should develop over the region from the southwest and west after 12z, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms, with best chances for this occurring at KSME and KLOZ. Conditions are likely to improve back to VFR and remain that way by late afternoon, if not sooner. Winds will remain light and variable or out of the southwest at less than 10 kts, but will begin to increase to around 10 kts from the south or south-southwest especially for western sites after 00z Wednesday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.