textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend.

- Warmer temperatures and a greater potential for showers and thunderstorms return next week.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026

The long term forecast will be dominated by upper level ridging centered over the Great Plains, with troughing along the East Coast. Eastern Kentucky will find itself sandwiched between these features, leading to an extensive period of northwesterly flow aloft. A series of shortwaves will traverse this flow, providing a chance for multiple rounds of showers and storms (potentially in the form of MCS activity). However, confidence in the timing or intensity of these impulses remains low, and impacts to the forecast area will remain heavily dependent on the evolution of upstream convection, increasing uncertainty.

On Sunday, increasingly northwesterly winds will work to pull in better quality moisture from the Midwest, allowing dewpoints to climb into the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area by Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, mostly clear skies and increasing influence of the upper level ridge aloft will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 80s across the forecast area, allowing for moderate instability to build, although in the absence of forcing to drive convective initiation, rain chances will likely be relegated to an isolated storm or two at most through the daytime hours, if that. Some models are attempting to hint at isolated to perhaps widely scattered storm chances in our southernmost counties on Sunday afternoon, and the thermodynamic environment will certainly be capable of supporting convection. That being said, many models depict height rises at the same time, corresponding with a modest eastward expansion of the ridge aloft, which would inhibit convection. For now, NBM PoPs were retained, keeping rain chances below 10% across the forecast area through the evening.

Forecast uncertainty increases overnight Sunday into Monday as convective coverage increases in the Midwest, with some model guidance suggesting MCS type activity may approach the forecast area as soon as very early Monday morning. That being said, the most favored outcome at this time is that skies remain relatively clear, owing to surface high pressure lingering on the periphery of the forecast area. For now, a modest ridge/valley temperature split was introduced on Sunday night, in addition to typical valley fog, to account for this more likely solution.

Monday and Tuesday appear to offer the most robust storm chances of the period, with additional impulses moving through northwest flow aloft and a continued signal for MCS activity somewhere in the Ohio Valley. Although there is limited agreement in the timing or intensity of these waves, machine learning guidance has generally highlighted a broad area of severe potential from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley early next week, largely driven by the potential for damaging wind gusts associated with any convective complexes. This risk remains highly uncertain, and the current SPC Day 4 and 5 15% contours do not currently include our area (with Mondays risk area north of Kentucky in the Great Lakes region and Tuesdays risk more focused on the Mid Atlantic). That being said, the modeled environment does seem to support the potential for MCS activity to propagate southeast into the forecast area, and should diurnal timing of these waves also be favorable, the parameter space will be capable of supporting strong to severe storms. LREF mean surface based CAPE is in the range of 1500-2000 J/kg on Monday and Tuesday evening, and LREF mean 0-6 km shear is again in the neighborhood of 30-40 kts, enough to support severe weather. Depending on how many rounds of showers and storms we receive, flash flooding could also potentially be a concern, although this remains similarly uncertain; the Weather Prediction Center has assigned a Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall on both Monday and Tuesday to account for this possibility. In short, there will be multiple chances for rain early next week, and upstream convective evolution, in addition to wave timing, will dictate impacts to the forecast area.

Following potential activity on Tuesday into early Wednesday, rain chances will decrease again as moisture declines courtesy of increasingly northerly to northeasterly winds. High temperatures will generally rise into the upper 80s each day, with surface high pressure building in the vicinity of OH/WV.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026

There is a small potential for a few showers/thunderstorms near the VA border this afternoon, and a few showers near the TN border on Saturday. Localized valley fog could also affect some locations late tonight and early Saturday, especially in southeast KY. Any of these things would bring localized sub-VFR conditions. However, VFR conditions will prevail across the area most of the time, and that is all that will be forecast at TAF sites.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.