textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures can be expected through Friday, with highs returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 333 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026

The period is expected to begin with an enlongated 595 dm 500 mb upper level ridge axis extending from off the VA and NC coast northwest across WV to sections of the Plains/SD and then southwest into parts of the Great Basin/SW Conus. Well to the north of eastern KY, an upper level low should be centered over Ontario with a shortwave rotating from Hudson Bay to the James Bay At the same time, guidance has an upper level low centered in western TX at that point with a rather moist airmass lingering across much of the southeast to central Appalachians. An upper low is progged to be nearing the Pacific northwest as well. At the surface, a weak rather diffuse boundary, may initially be in place from the coast of the Carolinas across sections of the southern Appalachians to OK with sfc high pressure centered over the eastern KY to southern WV vicinity.

Wednesday night to Thursday night, the upper level ridge is progged to weaken and become centered in the Bermuda vicinity as the shortwave trough initially in Canada rotates to the St Lawrence Valley/Northeast and the upper low meanders to the Maritimes vicinity. Meanwhile guidance suggests a weak 500 mb upper low/trough may develop in the southern Appalachians or Southeast. This could lead to some diurnally driven convection for areas generally near or west of the I-75 corridor closer to this system and where deeper moisture should be focused. Seasonably warm temperatures should also prevail with increasingly warmer overnight temperatures.

Friday to Saturday night, the upper low is progged to remain over eastern sections of Canada/Maritimes vicinity with upper level ridging becoming centered east of Bermuda in the Atlantic and sections of the Rockies/Plains. The general guidance consensus is for an upper level trough to develop from eastern Canada across the eastern Great Lakes to the Appalachians. There remains some differences in the timing and evolution of this. As this trough begins to take shape a sfc cold front should drop south of the Great Lakes and toward the Lower OH Valley region to begin the weekend. A warm and moist airmass is progged to remain to its south. Passing disturbances and the front could result in convection at any point though diurnal peaks Friday and Saturday afternoon are probable. With more in the way of convection and cloud cover each day, high temperatures should fall back to mid July normals.

Sunday and Monday, upper level troughing is progged to remain from eastern Canada across portions of the Great Lakes and into the OH Valley region while upper level ridging remains centered in the Rockies/CO vicinity and extends across parts of the western Conus and into the Southern Plains vicinity. The sfc cold front may drop south of eastern KY to end the weekend and begin next week. This should result in greater chances for convection peaking near the diurnal cycle on Sunday, though unsettled weather should linger into Monday. High temperatures should be a couple of degrees below normal to begin next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail throughout the period. Winds will be light and variable, with just scattered passing high clouds early this morning. One possible exception will be fog formation for valleys and where rain fell yesterday, though modest easterly flow just above ground level should tend to inhibit fog formation at more exposed terminals, including the TAF sites. Any fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise, ushering in another day of VFR conditions and light winds. The typical scattered cumulus is expected to develop by the afternoon, especially across the southern half of the forecast area.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.