textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist into the weekend, mainly Saturday.

- Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a possibility for strong to damaging wind gusts. - Excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for the northeast portion of the forecast area through 11 PM EDT Friday evening.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 516 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026

We will start the period still at the southern edge of faster mid-upper level flow (slightly south of due westerly), with ridging aloft over the Deep South. With dry mid levels expected and a lack of discernible significant features to focus convection, models are generating little or no precip for our area on Sunday. Have gone with a dry forecast as given by the NBM, but based on forecast soundings, wouldn't be surprised if at least some isolated activity occurred in our northeast counties.

A ripple moving through the mid-upper level flow to our north will support a weak cold front which is expected to approach us Sunday night and move through on Monday or Monday evening. Deeper moisture should return ahead of the front, with our PWs rising to around 2" again. With this, the potential for thunderstorms returns. Drier air arriving behind the front will probably keep us dry on Tuesday. However, there is a shortwave trough showing up in the GFS which moves through and results in a bit of precip. The required NBM forecast is dry on Tuesday with the exception of some 20% POP near the TN and VA border. If the shortwave and its precip persist in later runs, a low POP could end up over more of the area.

The next significant shot at precip arrives in the neighborhood of Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper level impulse carves out an eastern CONUS trough. This sends another cold front southeast, with atmospheric moisture again increasing ahead of the front. Behind the front, there could be some noticeable relief from the mugginess at the end of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026

Mainly VFR was observed at issuance time, with localized MVFR or lower within a narrow line of storms associated with a southward moving outflow boundary and was located near or just south of the I-64 corridor. Otherwise, as we move through the afternoon to early evening during peak heating, some increase in coverage of convection is anticipated as the outflow boundary gradually drops across the area. Any convection would bring brief reductions to MVFR or worse and PROB30s have been added in some areas when coverage is expected to be the greatest. Between 04Z and 14Z, a general lull in convection is anticipated, though isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop before the end of the period. Winds will generally be 10KT or less, except locally stronger and erratic near thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>113-115-118>120.