textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather is expected through the day Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will make a return Sunday night and Monday, possibly bringing heavy rainfall along with strong wind gust.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure mostly in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. There is a weak cold front settling south into the area with some isolated to scattered convection. Some mid and high clouds are affecting the area - associated with the front. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 80s to low 80s. Meanwhile, amid light west winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with a tweaking of the PoPs and thunder chances through the rest of the night in the north. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 304 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

Looking at the 500-mb heights across CONUS, a ridge of high pressure can be seen over the Eastern Pacific and off the British Columbia coastline. Further downstream, multiple shortwaves near Southern Alberta, and Eastern Ontario continue their propagation east. Further south, a subtropical high pressure resides over Northern Mexico, south of the Four Corners, while an area of low pressure ejects out of the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley Sunday night into Monday.

Monday, that system's cold front will look to work through Kentucky during the day. Widespread showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through the better part of Monday. With the passage of the cold front, PWAT values are modeled around 1.75 to 2.0 inches. Looking at the 00Z run of the ECMWF mean precipitable water against the climatological percentile, the forecasted PWAT falls within the 97th to 98th percentile, making it quiet abnormal for this time of year. With the most recent heavy rainfall and area soils holding more water, along with some creeks and streams with elevated flows, any additional rainfall may cause a recurrence of high water. The WPC has most of Eastern Kentucky in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. In addition to the flood outlook for Monday, sufficient shear around 30 kts and instability (MUCAPE around 1200 J/kg), is enough to warrant a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) from the SPC for severe weather.

As the cold front pushes southeast of the forecast area Monday evening, rain chances diminish. Some showers may linger across southeastern portions of the forecast area into Tuesday. In general the overall pattern remains progressive, with isolated shower and storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday. The next shortwave looks to move across the Upper Great Lakes Thursday. A cold front attributed with this system may approach the area sometime Thursday afternoon through Friday. Models are not in as much agreement with timing or pattern evolution, but multiple systems could lead to renewed shower and thunderstorm chances through Saturday.

Temperatures generally remain in the low to mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026

There is a still a very small chance of a few showers or thunderstorms generally north of KSYM this evening. Should they occur, isolated IFR conditions would be possible. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions hold until late tonight when valley fog is anticipated into early Sunday morning - potentially bringing localized IFR or worse conditions. Once this clears, VFR conditions return for the remainder of the period. At the same time winds will be light and variable through the day, Sunday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.