textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- After a quiet night, gusty southwesterly winds between 25 and 35 mph are expected across eastern Kentucky today.

- These winds will advect an increasingly warm, moist airmass into the region. Expect several consecutive days with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, and mild overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. - After a weak passing disturbance yields isolated rain chances today, a more active weather pattern sets up for the second half of the week. Expect daily chances for showers and storms through the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 312 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026

There remains good agreement in the overall upper level pattern for much of the period. The more amplified pattern will lead to a more active pattern across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The first bout of potential rain comes in on Wednesday, with a cold front pushing toward the Ohio Valley. However, some of the guidance has trended leaner with precipitation chances on Wednesday and this will have to be monitored in future forecast updates. That said, the chances of a quarter of an inch in the 6-hour period ending at 8 PM Wednesday is generally 15 percent or less and this speaks to the light nature of the precipitation these PoPs actually represent.

Past this, the active pattern rolls on with on and off chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms at times from Thursday into Saturday, as we remain in the warm sector. The drier day of all of these days will be Thursday, with NBM PoPs capped around the the 30 percent mark. Then by Saturday night into Sunday there is reasonable agreement that a shortwave trough will progress eastward and finally send a cold front across the Ohio Valley. This will be the better forcing for the period, with chances of rain in the 50-60 percent range. Overall the rainfall amounts through the period are not expected to be overly impressive for most locations, with chances of greater than an inch total from Wednesday into Monday at around 50 percent in our far southeast, but closer to 70 percent across our bluegrass. There will be some convective elements to the pattern and therefore some of this might over-perform in some isolated spots. The warm sector pattern will support afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s through Saturday. The cold front will usher in a more seasonable airmass, with afternoon highs on Sunday and Monday topping out in the 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

Mainly just some occasional high clouds will be noted through the area into dawn. Winds, generally, will be southwest at 5 to 10 mph through the rest of the night, but the persistence of stronger southwesterly winds aloft will lead to LLWS at up to 45 kts. Periodic gusts will reach the surface, especially for northern and western TAF sites such as KSYM, KIOB, and KSME. Those winds will mix down effectively later this morning, leading to renewed surface gustiness along with sufficient diurnal heating for a healthy cu field to develop.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.