textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized heavy rainfall may occur with showers & thunderstorms through the evening.

- Most places can expect rain each day through most of the next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

The long term period opens with broad upper level ridging over the Atlantic coast, with a well defined upper level low over Ontario; this pattern leaves eastern Kentucky near the upper level trough axis. As stronger flow associated with this troughing departs to our northeast, our attention will shift to a deep shortwave over Texas. As this wave pushes east, it is expected to amplify and eventually become a closed mid level low, inducing height falls over eastern Kentucky on Monday. At the surface, a remnant surface boundary will be located over the Commonwealth, providing additional forcing for organized showers and thunderstorms. Thus, additional rounds of precipitation will be possible to open the week, and with an anomalously moist environment in place, locally heavy rainfall will again become a concern, and isolated flooding may be possible.

With stubborn upper level ridging over the Atlantic, eastern Kentucky will continue to feel the influence of central CONUS troughing through at least midweek. With no clear path of progression for the stalled boundary, a wet pattern looks to continue, and rain will be likely through at least Wednesday. The exact timing details of these rounds of showers and storms is presently unclear, owing to some disagreement in the placement and amplitude of impulses embedded within the broader flow; however, there is a broad consensus that the environment will continue to be moist, bolstered by moisture advection via continued southerly flow. With such an active pattern in place, isolated flooding will again be a concern for areas that continue to receive multiple rounds of heavy rain. LREF guidance continues to indicate that QPF will be notable across the forecast area; even without accounting for convective effects, 25th percentile total QPF through Wednesday night sits between 2 and 2.25 inches, with higher end solutions indicating the potential for 3+ inches of rainfall through midweek, although NBM QPF remains lower at this time.

Moving into the latter half of the week, guidance diverges...

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026

At issuance time, conditions were mostly VFR with MVFR at KSYM. Convection is expanding this morning as a sfc low moves nearly overhead just to the northwest. Reductions to MVFR or IFR conditions can be anticipated in any of these renewed showers. Stronger pockets of convection should return, at times, during the late morning and afternoon hours. Within this convection, reductions to MVFR or IFR are expected. Thunder should taper off this evening with lowering CIGs and patchy fog through the area. Winds will generally be light and variable through the period, with brief higher gusts in any thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ044-050>052-104.