textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through Saturday, but above normal temperatures to varying extent will also persist through the middle of next week.

- A cold front will approach Saturday and move through Saturday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce strong to damaging winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms are also expected around the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1140 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky deep in the warm sector of a system approaching from the west with a warm front located near the southern shore of the Great Lakes. This allowed for soaring, record high temperatures today along with nearly dry conditions - noting the pair of stray thunderstorms that briefly popped up in the western Cumberland Valley late in the afternoon. Currently, temperatures are coming off the extreme warmth with readings running in the mid 70s for most of the area but falling back to the mid 60s in a few of the sheltered valley spots. Meanwhile, amid southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally rather moist in the low to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids while also tweaking the minimal PoPs through the night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 205 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

The period starts Sunday evening with a zonal mid-level pattern with a decaying front just south of the area in the Tennessee Valley. With radiational cooling conditions looking promising, ridge-valley splits were introduced for the Sunday night period, along with a reduction in dew points by several degrees from the NBM.

A warm front begins to lift north toward the area Monday into Monday night, slowly introducing clouds and rain chances from the south. However, the bulk of the guidance suggests most of the area will remain under less than full cloud cover along with weak warm advection, which is again a good setup for at least some ridge- valley splits in temperatures, especially in the evening before clouds and shower chances increase from the south.

PoPs continue to increase into Tuesday as the area becomes entrenched within a robust warm sector to the south of a warm/stationary front over the southern Great Lakes Region and an upper low and cold front ejecting from northwestern Mexico into the southern CONUS. A potentially strong cold front then moves east through the area Wednesday as a digging upper trough absorbs the southern stream disturbance or phases with it over the Eastern US. While the progressive nature of this system precludes any widespread excessive rainfall threat from heavy rain, at least at this time, the strong dynamics (forcing) and wind shear would suggest the potential for strong to severe storms potentially should sufficient instability is present as the cold front passes.

Regardless of how this evolves, the models all suggest a cooler air mass behind the cold front within broad cyclonically-curved zonal flow for Thursday into Friday, with the low potential for some light snow showers in the north for those solutions favoring a deeper phasing system over the Eastern US Thursday and/or Thursday night.

The manual edits in the long-term period were to introduce ridge- valley splits for both Sunday night and to a lesser degree Monday night, and to lower dew point temperatures from Sunday night through Monday night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

VFR conditions will hold through the majority of the aviation forecast period, with pre-frontal showers/thunderstorms likely holding off until after 18Z on Saturday. Some MVRF to IFR conditions will be possible with this line of showers and storms. After a night of light winds, they will increase out of the southwest on Saturday, with gusts of up to 25 kts expected in most places that afternoon and into the start of the evening. Prior to that, some LLWS - from the southwest at up to 40 kts - will be possible for a time pre-dawn.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.