textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures will persist into Saturday.

- Chances for very light rain or drizzle linger into early this evening as a weak cold front moves through the area.

- More widespread and soaking rainfall is likely from Thursday night through Saturday, though any flood risk remains low for now.

UPDATE

Issued at 1125 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026

Recent radar returns have generally diminished as far as coverage of drizzle or at least what is being detected by radar. Some returns were along portions of the VA border beyond where chances of drizzle had been previously forecast. Overall, for the next few hours, chances of drizzle was maintained where previously forecast and also included along the VA border in alignment with recent high resolution model trends. Otherwise, hourly grids were updated based on recent observation trends.

UPDATE Issued at 721 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026

No major changes aside from incorporating the latest surface obs and tweaking the diurnal curve through the morning. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 434 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026

The models remain in good agreement regarding the overall amplified flow pattern that will be in place over the CONUS through the rest of the week. Northern stream energy will be diving southeast across the West Coast the middle of this week, with a southern stream lead short wave trough surfing eastward over northern Mexico. By Thursday night, a prominent trough will be aligned from the northern Rockies through Baja California. This trough will then gradually shift eastward, reaching the central CONUS by Friday. Model timing differences then become more apparent as a cutoff low develops across the Upper Midwest and heads east over the Great Lakes and then the Saint Lawrence River Valley. The long wave trough will exit the Eastern Seaboard by early next week. This will result in a continuation of well above normal temperatures across eastern Kentucky, but at the cost of a period of unsettled weather. Temperatures will then trend back below normal following the cold frontal passage that occurs sometime on Saturday.

Short wave ridging will allow for a mostly clear start to Wednesday night, with surface high pressure settling across the Mid-Atlantic region. This will allow for a moderate ridge/valley split, with mid to upper 30s in the valleys and lower 40s on the ridges. Stronger low level return flow engages on Thursday, but will be mostly out of the south, keeping most of Thursday dry across our area. Temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 60s, with a few 70 degree readings possible, should clouds come in a bit thinner than currently forecast. The better moisture return starts to infiltrate Thursday night, and especially from Friday into Saturday. PoPs will peak in the categorical range (80%) during this time. Overall, the models have slowed down the progression of the cold front compared to recent runs, with LREF probabilties of event total rainfall of greater than an inch having increased to 50-70%, while some 2 inch signals (around 30%), are now showing up in portions of the Cumberland River Basin.

Thankfully, drier conditions are in place, with streams and rivers running below normal to well below normal area-wide. 6 hour Flash Flood Guidance values are also over 2 inches in most locations, and while some thunderstorm activity can not be ruled out during the Friday afternoon through Friday night timeframe, the current probabilities of exceeding even half the Flash Flood guidance amounts in 6 hours are low (10-20% over portions of the Cumberland River Basin). As such, this rainfall will most likely just return the creeks, streams, and rivers back into the normal range.

As the cold front exits on Saturday, colder air will advect in on west southwest to west winds. Highs will likely be established in the earlier portion of the day on Saturday, ranging from the lower 50s in the Bluegrass region, to the lower 60s in southeastern Kentucky. Rain showers will diminish in coverage from west to east Saturday night and Sunday, with a transition to snow showers, with no impacts expected. High pressure will build in Sunday night and Monday, bringing a return of drier weather. Highs on Sunday will be mainly in the 30s, with 40s coming back for Monday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 110 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2026

MVFR was in place across much of the area, though the downslope south to south southwest winds were resulting in lower end VFR ceilings mainly south of the TAF sites, though KSJS was initially in the lower end of VFR. More western locations were in the lower end of the MVFR range. These clouds were occurring in advance of a cold front and a couple of upper level disturbances. Winds at issuance time were south to southwest in the 5 to 15KT range with gusts to around 20KT. As the next disturbance nears and based on upstream radar returns another round of drizzle and a lowering of ceilings deeper into the MVFR range or into the MVFR range for at least a few hours should occur during the first 6 hours of the period. However, once that disturbance passes, drizzle chances end and a return to the lower end of VFR is possible around 00Z and after 06Z. Another return of lower clouds and potentially ceilings in the lower end of MVFR range or IFR range is possible near and just behind the cold front during roughly the 05Z to 15Z timeframe. With the loss of daytime heating winds should begin to slacken Winds will begin to slacken and become less gusty toward 00Z and gradually becoming more westerly between 00Z and 09Z and remaining westerly to end the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.