textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend continues through Friday, with forecast highs in the low to mid 80s.

- Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm could affect northern and eastern portions of the area on Wednesday.

- More widespread shower and storm chances enter the forecast on Friday night into Saturday and then again early next week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 415 PM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

The long term forecast period opens on the precipice of a pattern change here in Eastern Kentucky. The dominant Southeastern CONUS ridging that kept the early- to mid- week sensible weather dry and warm persists into Friday morning before a series of shortwave troughing disturbances suppress it this weekend. As the ridging erodes, atmospheric flow orients itself in a manner that favors more effective moisture return. As those disturbances approach, they introduce periodic rain chances to the forecast between Friday and Monday and mark a shift to a more active weather pattern. While it is true that some of this activity could come in the form of thunderstorms, the associated rainfall will prove highly beneficial to ongoing drought and fire weather concerns in the commonwealth. Widespread severe storms are not expected through the remainder of this week, but a more vigorous disturbance could lead to some stronger storms early next week. The details surrounding that set-up remain course at the current temporal range, but forecast confidence is high before then. The antecedent weather pattern favors efficient diurnal mixing on Thursday and Thursday night. A surface high pressure system will be traversing across southeastern portions of the CWA as a midlevel ridge axis propagates directly overhead. Light west-southwesterly winds will accordingly advect warm air into the forecast area, but the continental nature of this airmass will limit the amount of available moisture. High temperatures climb into the 80s area-wide on Thursday afternoon, and the baseline deterministic NBM data used to populate the long term grids is actually on the lower side of the ensemble envelope. As such, Thursday's highs may outperform current expectations, and they could come close to the modeled convective temperature thresholds. Some forecast guidance tries to develop some diurnally driven showers in the eastern portions of the forecast, but this appears unlikely. Modeled BUFKIT soundings at the Big Sandy Regional airport collectively resolve a capping inversion and stout surface dewpoint depressions during peak diurnal heating/mixing hours. As a result, dewpoint grids were lowered towards the NBM 10th percentile data and PoPs were decreased to below the mentionable 15% threshold. The better PoP chances look to remain displaced off to the NE in West Virginia, closer to the remnants of Wednesday's boundary.

After sunset, ridge-valley splits are favored to emerge. Conditions look too dry for river valley fog formation, but the sheltered and shaded valleys should quickly cool into the 40s after sunset. Ridgetops are more likely to experience lows in the 50s, as are the more open locales of the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. There, surface winds should shift to more southwesterly orientation overnight, setting the stage for the more active weather at the end of the forecast period.

The greatest precipitation chances in the long term period look to come in the Friday night to Saturday and Monday to Tuesday time frames. This coincides with the ejection of better-defined shortwave disturbances out of the Great Plains and into the Ohio River Valley. The greatest precipitation coverage will come immediately ahead of any associated surface frontal forcing, although isolated to scattered warm sector convection is possible out ahead of them. The first system lacks the amplitude and convective parameter spacing for any of this activity to be on the stronger side, but the second one will need to be watched more closely. SPC has outlined a Day 7 Severe Weather Outlook for portions of Kentucky on Monday, which currently clips Wayne County. It is far too early to explore specific details, but this activity should collectively yield much- needed measurable precipitation across the forecast area. Storm total QPF currently sits at over an inch for the entire CWA between Friday and Tuesday, and the LREF resolves 65-80% probabilities for exceeding this threshold over this same time frame. With that being said, the weekend does not look like a total washout. Friday night's system has been trending quicker in recent guidance, and shortwave ridging looks to build into the area behind it. Depending on where the boundary stalls out, some additional activity could set up in Southern Kentucky on Sunday, but most of the area looks to dry out in between these two main systems. Temperatures remain seasonably warm through the end of the period, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows generally in the 50s/near 60.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026

VFR conditions will persist through most of the period. the period. Northern and eastern locations may experience a shower or a thunderstorm during the last 6 hours of the period. Southwest to west winds initially in the 5 to 15KT range with gusts up to around 20KT are expected to begin the period, though winds should slacken toward 00Z. Winds in valleys should then be light and variable between 00Z and 13Z, with south to southwest winds at 5 to 10KT elsewhere. Meanwhile as a system nears the OH Valley, winds aloft will increase and lead to the threat of LLWS between 02Z and 13Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.