textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather and near record warmth is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- The next potential for rain begins to arrive from the northwest by Wednesday night and persists at times through Friday.

- Much cooler weather will arrive for the weekend-- likely the coldest we've seen so far this autumn.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 233 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026

The period begins Wednesday with eastern Kentucky situated between strong yet low-amplitude ridging over the Southeast US and strong zonal flow to the immediate north, with a mid-level jet streak situated across the Great Lakes region and a low/trough over Hudson Bay. Upstream, an upper low is situated over the Four Corners Region and is ushering a warm moist air mass from the subtropical East Pacific Ocean into the central US. Meanwhile, an upper trough is digging southeast through western Canada within an active northern stream.

Models are in generally good agreement on the overall evolution of the upper pattern through the long-term period. The passing jet stream across the Great Lakes will push a cold front south to the vicinity of the Ohio River Wednesday into early Thursday, before strong warm advection and the loss of northern-stream upper support pushes the front back north as a warm front Thursday. Meanwhile, the western Canada trough will continue digging southeast into the central US mid-week while partially phasing with and absorbing much of the energy from the Four Corners low. This will strengthen the upper trough and sharpen a strong cold front that will barrel across the Ohio Valley and eastern CONUS late Thursday through Friday. Transitory ridging moves across the region to end the weekend before the remnants of the Four Corners low begins to move quickly toward the Ohio Valley Monday as a weakening southern stream shortwave.

Showers and thunderstorms chances increase Wednesday into Thursday, especially north of the KY Highway 80 corridor, with strong warm advection continuing and PWs much higher than normal. Shower chances end Friday as cold advection upslope activity on the back side of the cold front as the upper trough passes. Much above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the front, with lows in the 60s.

This front will briefly usher in a much colder and drier air mass for Friday into the weekend. In fact, it is possible that Friday's highs occur in the morning, with temperatures remaining near steady or possibly falling through the afternoon as strong cold advection occurs. Saturday's highs will be the coolest of the Fall season thus far, likely only reaching the 50s for most locations, with Saturday night's lows possibly requiring frost and/or freeze hazard issuances as lows are forecast to drop into the 30s, with some potential for a few locations to possibly reach near freezing. Warm advection begins to increase again Sunday into Sunday night, with highs moderating into the 60s and possibly lower 70s, with overnight lows Sunday night in the 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026

Valley fog will develop during the night and last until early Tuesday morning, bringing localized IFR or worse conditions. Won't completely rule out fog at TAF sites by dawn, but the probability is low enough that it's not been included in TAFs. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.