textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms persist across the entire area throughout the week.

- The greatest rain chances are on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and the potential for multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall poses a risk for isolated flooding in this time frame.

- Warm and rather humid conditions are expected.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 430 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered in the vicinity of the Carolinas and extending into the mid Atlantic States to Quebec and another upper ridge centered in the Arklatex region. In between, a slow moving trough should initially extend from the Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley and TN Valley. Further west, an upper level trough should be moving across the western Conus as the period begins. At the surface, a frontal zone is expected to extend from near the NC/SC border into the SOuthern Appalachians to eastern Ky to western Great Lakes at that point. Deep moisture will be in place near and head of the shortwave trough with 00Z LREF mean progged in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range or 94th to 99th percentile.

Tuesday to Tuesday night, the axis of upper level ridging is progged to shift off the eastern seaboard while the 500 mb trough axis should gradually shift into the Appalachians and potential east of eastern KY late. Some of the guidance, mainly GFS, has another shortwave/MCS type feature potentially nearing the area late Tuesday night. The sfc boundary is expected to move little and perhaps linger across the eastern portion of the area and weaken. PW should remain in the 97th percentile or higher for this time of year during this timeframe as well. Storm motions should be rather slow, roughly 10 to 15 mph at the most and any additional rounds Tuesday into Tuesday evening or Tuesday night on top of locations that could receive heavier rain Monday to Monday night would have a risk of localized flooding. WPC maintains a marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall for Day 3, Tuesday to Tuesday night.

Wednesday to Thursday night, the upper trough axis should gradually shift further to east of eastern KY and the Appalachians with at least a period of brief height rises/shortwave shifting across the Commonwealth later Wednesday to Wednesday night. Also during this period, the upper level trough that will have began the period in the western Conus will have migrated into the Plains/Central Conus with a lead shortwave progged to reach the Great Lakes to mid MS Valley. Although total moisture in the column will decrease somewhat as ridge axis shifts across the area, with PW per the 00Z LREF dropping back to the 90th to 95th percentile or the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range. However, it will still be rather humid, with sfc dewpoints are progged in the upper 60s to lower 70s range. Chances for convection during these days should be highest on Wednesday with the 500 mb trough shifting east and the additional potential MCS/convectively driven shortwave possibly tracking across eastern KY as well. The degrees of height rises and loss of daytime heating and decreasing instability will determine the extent of coverage of any convection from late Wednesday evening through early Thursday and that period should be a relative lull in activity. Pending the ultimate degree of ridging and capping, isolated to scattered showers and storms are probable particularly during peak heating on Thursday and there could be another uptick Thursday night pending the timing of the approaching shortwave and associated frontal zone. Friday to Sunday, guidance has the shortwave trough crossing the Central and Eastern Great Lakes and OH Valley including eastern KY from Friday to Friday evening. There is quite a bit of spread in 500 mb heights over the upcoming weekend with ridging generally centered in the Southern Plains to start the weekend gradually becoming centered in the Rio Grande Valley to Mexico area. Further and north an upper low is expected to meander across central portions of Canada with a broad trough to its south and southwest. This would result in generally west to southwest flow across the commonwealth. The frontal zone may sag into eastern KY as the shortwave passes Friday to Friday night and then become diffuse. Another frontal zone may drop across the western and Central Great Lakes to mid MS Valley and sections of the Plains to end the weekend. Mild and quite humid weather should persist across the region with chances for convection generally peaking each afternoon and evening. The greatest chances for convection to end the week and over the weekend are forecast with the shortwave trough Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the majority of the TAF period, but conditions deteriorate from west-southwest to east-northeast tomorrow morning. Current satellite imagery reveals a cumulus field developing across the region, with the AM midlevel clouds beginning to mix out. The diurnally-driven cu should subside after sunset, and these clouds are pretty shallow. So, mentionable precipitation chances stay away from the TAF sites this afternoon. A few showers cannot be ruled out closer to the Ohio River though, and more widespread precipitation is ongoing to the south in the Tennessee River Valley. The system responsible for this southern activity is progged to approach the forecast area by tomorrow morning, with shower/storm chances increasing at southwestern terminals after 12z and then western terminals by the very end of the TAF period. This convection is poised to reduce ceilings and vsbys to MVFR conditions, but reductions have generally been handled with PROB30 groups for the 18z TAF period. Expect light and variable winds to persist as well.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.