textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front is expected to bring isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region today. An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out nearer to the WV border.

- Patchy frost is possible late Thursday night into early Friday morning in sheltered rural valleys and hollows, away from mainstem rivers.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances arrive to start the weekend followed by a pattern shift that favors temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026

There is reasonable agreement with the upper level pattern for the long-range period. High pressure cresting over eastern Kentucky and mid-level height rises will allow for clear and calm conditions to set up for Thursday night. With a chilly post-frontal air mass in place, this should allow frost or fog formation in many valleys as temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s. With crossover dew points Thursday afternoon mainly near or just above freezing, the frost risk is most likely to be confined to valleys and sheltered low-lying areas without a significant water source, whereas the fog is more likely in valleys along mainstem rivers and their larger tributaries. This frost potential could lead to some agricultural concerns given the late nature of these colder valley temperatures.

This cooler pattern is quite short-lived. Most of Friday looks to be dry, with temperatures quickly rebounding into the mid to upper 70s as high pressure sags southeastward and return flow takes hold. Then another upper level shortwave ejects eastward and a warm front pushes northward. This will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Commonwealth late Friday night into Saturday. The best chances for rainfall will be mainly north. In general, we are looking at rain chances peaking at 30 to 60 percent, lowest near the TN-KY border and highest north of I-64.

The pattern shifts to being quite warm across eastern Kentucky late this weekend into early next week. This occurs as height rises build northwest, with 588 dam heights surging into eastern Kentucky. The deterministic NBM is on the hotter side of guidance, showing temperatures rivaling all-time record highs for the month of May. However, the primary ensemble model blends show most of the area at less than a 50 percent chance of seeing greater than 90 degrees on Monday, for example. There is also uncertainty in Tuesdays high temperatures regarding how quickly an approaching wave and cold front make it eastward into the Ohio Valley. Either way, there is a good shot for highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday through Tuesday, with some areas getting closer to 90 degrees, especially on Monday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026

VFR conditions were prevailing across eastern KY including the TAF sites with the 06Z issuance. Prevailing VFR is expected to continue through the period with one caveat. A cold front will cross the area on Wednesday, bringing an increase in low and mid level clouds as well as isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few storms generally between 12Z and 00Z. Within the heavier showers or any storms some brief reductions to MVFR are possible. Clouds decrease by the last 6 to 9 hours of the period. Winds are currently light an variable or south to southwest at less than 10KT. After about 09Z, as the gradient increases and the front nears, winds will become south to southwest a generally 5 to 10KT, before increasing to 10 to 15KT between 12Z and 18Z and becoming more westerly as the front nears. Winds trend to the northwest to north between 18Z and 00Z as the front passes with 10 to 15KT sustained speeds on average. Some gusts as high as 20 to 25KT are anticipated during the daylight hours. The pressure gradient begins to slacken as high pressure builds in from the MS Valley to end the period and should result and sustained winds should drop below 10KT with less gusts before the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.