textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will inch higher through midweek, with humidity also climbing a bit into Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cold front moving into the area late in the week will give us our next expectation of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday or Thursday night.

- Above normal heat and humidity look to continue through early next week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 510 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

The models are in generally good agreement for the majority of the extended portion of the forecast. Ridging starts out over the southeastern CONUS as well as the Desert Southwest, while faster and progressive flow dominates across the northern half of the CONUS. A notable short wave trough will be aligned from the Upper Midwest through the middle Mississippi Valley. This feature will cruise through the Ohio Valley and eventually New England by Friday. Troughing will be maintained across the Mississippi Valley Friday into Saturday, as additional short wave energy moves along the north central CONUS. Meanwhile, a deeper upper level low will propagate onshore over the Pacific Northwest. As this feature swings east, more prominent ridging will take hold downstream across the southeastern CONUS late this weekend and into early next week.

Sensible weather will feature an active start across eastern Kentucky for Thursday. A cold front will approach from the northwest, with more widespread convection moving in from northwest to southeast during the day. The highest probabilities will occur north KY-80, with perhaps a slightly slower trend seen in the latest model guidance. PWATs will peak in the 1.8 to 1.9 inch range, along with the surface boundary aligning more parallel with the mid and upper level flow. As such, some locally heavy rainers remain a possibility. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to threaten through Thursday evening, although as instability wanes and the overall forcing diminish, convective coverage should gradually lessen overnight. Lows Thursday night will range from the mid 60s north of I-64, to the upper 60s bordering Tennessee. These lows wound up being just a shade higher than the blended guidance, given the tendency of the cold front to hang up as it moves across our region.

This boundary will linger across our southern locales on Friday, with a resurgence of good chance to likely PoPs seen generally along and southeast of KY-80. Highs will retreat closer to normal temporarily, mainly in the low to mid 80s. We will still be under the influence of troughing aloft on Saturday, although some subtle 500 mb height rises may actually occur. Still, enough low level moisture will linger to allow for additional diurnally-driven convection. Similar to Friday, higher PoPs will be favored across our southeast. From Sunday through Tuesday, ridging will be building in aloft, keeping convective coverage more limited. Unfortunately, this will also mean a continuation of above normal heat and humidity across eastern Kentucky, with highs averaging in the 85 to 90 degree range each day, and dew points remaining above 70 degrees at times.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with mid- to high-level clouds over the area expected to dissipate heading into the evening. Some isolated showers or sprinkles should remain brief this afternoon. Otherwise, light and variable winds and clearing skies are expected tonight. Some patchy river valley fog may develop late tonight, but at present is not expected to cause impacts to the TAF locations. Following morning mixing Wednesday, southwest winds may gust up to 15-20 kts at IOB, SYM, LOZ, and SME.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.