textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake Wind Advisories have been issued for the Cave Run Lake and Cumberland Lake areas. A heads up SPS is in effect elsewhere.

- Gusty southwesterly winds between 30 and 40 mph are likely on Wednesday.

- Snow showers are expected to produce spatially variable accumulations and localized travel impacts on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

- A clipper system is expected to produce more widespread winter precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning.

- A much colder than normal airmass is forecast to move into the region for this upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows an area of strong low pressure moving into the northwest Ohio Valley while high pressure has been shunted southeast of the state. This is creating a rather tight pressure gradient through eastern Kentucky that will tighten up considerably later this night. Otherwise, skies are partly cloudy with generally south to southwest winds of around 10 mph. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 30s to lower 40s on the ridges and near 30 degrees in the sheltered valleys. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s across the area. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and the issuance of an SPS for gusty winds away from the lakes late tonight and through Wednesday afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 413 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Added a Lake Wind Advisory for the Cave Run Lake area.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

The period begins Thursday morning with a deep trough over Eastern Seaboard moving quickly out to sea, with cold advection snow showers continuing to gradually wind down through the morning. Highs only recover into the lower to mid 30s Thursday with surface high pressure ridging moving through during the afternoon.

A warm front approaches from the southwest in advance of another clipper system for Thursday evening into Friday. Though the column will be warming as the system advances across the northeastern half of the forecast area, precipitation will be overrunning a sufficiently cold atmosphere for accumulating snow to fall, with the highest accumulations and thus impacts expected along and north of the Mountain Parkway, where most areas could see around 1 inch of snow accumulation, with the low potential for 2 inches toward northeastern Kentucky. Temperatures will be warming as the event progresses, with surface temperatures warming quickly through the 30s especially as, and/or shortly after, precipitation ends from southwest to northeast behind the warm front passage.

A milder air mass then persists across the region for Friday and Saturday, with highs returning to the 40s. However, another clipper system dives southeast across the area the second half of Saturday into the first half of Sunday, with rain chances changing to snow chances as temperatures fall quickly behind the front. This front will be the leading edge of an arctic air mass, with some of the coldest conditions of the winter possible Sunday night into Monday, especially if good radiational cooling conditions can develop.

Model uncertainty increases to end the long-term period next Monday, with the temperature forecast largely dependent on how quickly warm advection becomes re-established along with associated clouds (and perhaps precipitation chances) with the next clipper system.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 715 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Mid and high level clouds are currently crossing the area. Winds have settled to generally from the south to southwest at around 10 kts. However, winds aloft will begin to ramp up tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. With that, a Low Level Jet (LLJ) moves across the area tonight, leading to the threat of LLWS for most of the night. Around 12Z, that cold front starts to pass through producing a potential for mainly light rain for most TAF sites between 13-18Z Wednesday along with IFR CIGs. Winds will remain out of the southwest with gusts of 25-30 kts, though the threat of LLWS diminishes with the frontal passage and more effective mix down.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for KYZ051- 052-060-079-080-083-084-106.