textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend, with near record heat possible on Thursday.

- The heat and humidity could fuel a few thunderstorms in portions of the area at times over the next several days, with the probability then rising early next week as upper level high pressure currently dominating the area weakens.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026

The first signs of valley fog are materializing on satellite imagery in southeast KY, and it will continue to develop through sunrise. The forecast is on track, and no substantive changes were necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 714 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026

Diurnal cu is drying up, and sky cover going into tonight has been reduced. Based on dew points during peak mixing in the afternoon, have raised fcst min temperatures slightly in valleys for sunrise on Wed. Also, extended a 20% POP into early Wed night in our northern counties based on latest mesoscale model runs.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026

High pressure and associated ridge axis aloft over eastern Kentucky will retrograde and weaken with time, allowing for increasingly faster west-northwesterly flow aloft through the Ohio Valley as the long-term period progresses through the weekend.

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday as strong mid- level heights exceeding 597 dm gradually decrease, though low chances for showers and thunderstorms are warranted across parts of mainly central and northeastern Kentucky and perhaps extending south to near the Cumberland Mountains in the afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area, with max heat indices in the vicinity of 100 degrees.

A passing disturbance to the north and associated jet streak will push a cold front far enough south Friday to bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances across the area along with a brief modest cooldown in the northern half of the forecast area, but highs will still reach the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Warm advection quickly returns for Saturday, with low PoPs and a return to highs back into the upper 80s to lower 90s, which looks to extend through Sunday before a potential cooldown as an upper trough and associated cold front move into the area and increase rain chances. While models show broad 40-50 PoPs Monday into Monday night with relatively good agreement in a system moving from the central CONUS to the Great Lakes region, model ensemble systems show significant disagreements on the strength, track, and timing of the parent trough. Resolving these differences will likely play a key role in whether those PoPs trend upwards or downwards as this period nears.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 833 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with only a couple of exceptions. Valley fog will affect some locations, especially southeast KY, late tonight and early Wednesday morning. It will bring localized IFR or worse conditions, but should not affect TAF sites. A few thunderstorms may occur near and north of the Mountain Parkway late Wednesday into Wednesday evening, bringing isolated sub-VFR conditions.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.