textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- After a quieter night, gusty southwesterly winds between 25 and 35mph are expected across eastern Kentucky tomorrow.

- These winds will advect an increasingly warm, moist airmass into the region. Expect several consecutive days with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and mild overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. - After a weak passing disturbance yields isolated rain chances tomorrow, a more active weather pattern sets up for the second half of the week. Expect daily chances for showers and storms through the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 312 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026

There remains good agreement in the overall upper level pattern for much of the period. The more amplified pattern will lead to a more active pattern across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The first bout of potential rain comes in on Wednesday, with a cold front pushing toward the Ohio Valley. However, some of the guidance has trended leaner with precipitation chances on Wednesday and this will have to be monitored in future forecast updates. That said, the chances of a quarter of an inch in the 6-hour period ending at 8 PM Wednesday is generally 15 percent or less and this speaks to the light nature of the precipitation these PoPs actually represent.

Past this, the active pattern rolls on with on and off chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms at times from Thursday into Saturday, as we remain in the warm sector. The drier day of all of these days will be Thursday, with NBM PoPs capped around the the 30 percent mark. Then by Saturday night into Sunday there is reasonable agreement that a shortwave trough will progress eastward and finally send a cold front across the Ohio Valley. This will be the better forcing for the period, with chances of rain in the 50-60 percent range. Overall the rainfall amounts through the period are not expected to be overly impressive for most locations, with chances of greater than an inch total from Wednesday into Monday at around 50 percent in our far southeast, but closer to 70 percent across our bluegrass. There will be some convective elements to the pattern and therefore some of this might over-perform in some isolated spots. The warm sector pattern will support afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 60s through Saturday. The cold front will usher in a more seasonable airmass, with afternoon highs on Sunday and Monday topping out in the 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026

VFR conditions are observed across the TAF sites this afternoon. A broken deck of low- to mid-level clouds is draped across Eastern Kentucky in this afternoon's satellite imagery, and the related ceilometer height readings are generally on the lower end of VFR criteria. This cloud deck is expected to scatter out and give way to clearer skies tonight. Visibility readings are all currently well above the 6SM VFR threshold, and were remained like that even during this morning's rain showers. While most of the forecast area is dry this afternoon, a cluster of lingering showers may approach KSJS in the next couple of hours. This is covered with a short PROB30 group, but the forecast remains VFR, as a weakening trend has been observed on radar. On the other hand, a strengthening trend has been observed in this afternoon's southwesterly wind gusts, which are expected to continue through sunset at all TAF sites. After sunset, winds will subside, but the persistence of stronger west- southwesterly winds aloft will lead to overnight LLWS. Those winds will mix out tomorrow morning, leading to renewed gustiness and sufficient diurnal heating for a diurnal cu field to develop.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.