textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible into this evening, primarily south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A stalled front brings rounds of showers and possible storms tonight through Wednesday, with isolated flash flooding possible, primarily closer to the VA-KY border.

- Cooler, drier air arrives Thursday through the weekend, bringing daytime highs in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 310 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026

The extended period begins Tuesday evening with a strong ~583 dam high located across Northern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes. This high works to suppress an upper level low/trough south as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, eastern Kentucky sits on the cool, northern side of a stalled frontal boundary draped across Tennessee, North Carolina, and the Deep South. Between the stalled front to our south and multiple perturbations rotating around the approaching upper level low, the area should see rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening and Wednesday. This could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding before the main trough axis finally shifts south and east on Thursday.

From Thursday onward, the upper-level trough amplifies and becomes a closed low off the East Coast. As the trough axis shifts east of the Commonwealth, cooler and much drier air arrives. Under persistent northerly flow and surface high pressure, seasonably cool weather takes hold: an extended period of daytime highs in the 60s-70s and nighttime lows in the 40s-50s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026

VFR conditions are noted across eastern Kentucky at TAF issuance after fog and low stratus impacted some of the sites this morning. Isolated convection is occurring but has not impacted TAF sites so far through the 18Z issuance. This convection is expected to become more widespread this afternoon and evening in some locations as it blossoms along/ahead the southward sagging cold front. Ended up going with predominate showers and PROB 30 for the scattered thunderstorm chances through 6Z. Otherwise, widespread low stratus and fog is expected tonight behind the boundary, along with lower shower chances. Shower/thunderstorm activity may ramp back up along the Virginia border as we head into the daytime hours Tuesday, and the boundary begins to stall in this region. Winds will generally be light and variable this afternoon, veering northerly after the front moves through this afternoon/evening, with continued light northerly flow heading through Tuesday as well. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any showers and/or thunderstorms that develop/pass through in the afternoon and evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.