textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A more active weather pattern sets up early next week, with multiple chances for widespread showers and storms from Monday night through Wednesday.

- Severe weather potential remains masked by forecast uncertainty here in Eastern Kentucky, but a stronger line of storms is poised to approach the I-75 corridor early on Tuesday morning.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible later on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, and these will bring highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once a frontal boundary finally clears the area late next week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored.

UPDATE

Issued at 1155 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Fog has developed generally near or south of the Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY 80 corridor area where rainfall was a bit more substantial over the past 24 hours and there has been clearing. More fog has been added to the grids for much of the overnight. This fog could become dense overnight while at the same time, low clouds or stratus to the north and northeast could move into northern and eastern areas. Confidence in these trends overnight is lower than average and trends will be monitored overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 925 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

Showers have moved into VA at this time, though some convective allowing models suggest the potential for a couple of additional showers or sprinkles over the next couple of hours in the southeast. Nighttime microphysics and area ASOS/AWOS obs indicate a mixture of clouds near 5kft agl, low stratus, and probably some fog as well. This leads to uncertainty as to the development of fog versus low stratus overnight or even the potential for a continuation of fog where clouds have thinned in the east and southeast following rainfall. Northeastern/eastern locations may eventually end up with some of the stratocu and stratus currently in WV and southeast OH moving into the area or developing further southwest per guidance as well. For now, have made no changes to areal extent of the stratus, but will be following trends for valley fog in the south and may make some adjustments accordingly.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 638 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The forecast period opens on the back side of this weekend's shortwave ridging, with breezy southerly winds advecting warm air into Eastern Kentucky. Afternoon highs are forecast to climb towards the mid to upper 80s under mostly sunny skies. Efficient diurnal mixing should yield wind gusts up to 20mph and 30-40 degree dewpoint depressions. A few warm-sector pop up showers cannot be ruled out in western portions of the area on Monday afternoon, but their intensity ceiling will be limited by a lack of deep moisture and the displacement of the forcing/lift out to the west in the Mississippi River Valley. Forecast guidance has trended more northwesterly and later with the parent low associated with Monday's well-advertised severe weather risk. Stronger thunderstorms are still expected to initiate in Western Kentucky on Monday evening, and it may organize into a QLCS as it pushes east across the commonwealth overnight.

Ahead of that line, flow in the lower half of the atmospheric column turns veers towards the southwest and intensifies. Models resolve the intensification of the 850mb low level jet to between 50 and 60 knots after dark, which results in more effective moisture return into our forecast area. This correlates with a nocturnal surface warm frontal passage and the potential for weaker WAA-type showers out ahead of that main line. PoPs accordingly increase from SW to NE after sunset, and mean LREF PWATs climb to upwards of 1.25 inches by the time the line arrives on Tuesday morning. However, the line will be working against the diurnal instability curve, and the potential for nocturnal radiation inversions could suppress the eastern extent of its severe weather risk. Breezy wind profiles will yield ample shear, especially the further northwest one goes. A mean 40-45 knots of bulk shear is resolved across the northwestern 2/3 of the CWA by 8am Tuesday, and the spatial footprint of this local shear maxima overlaps with the SPC Day 3 Marginal Severe Weather Outlook. While that outlook is technically labeled as Monday's risk, it is actually for the early Tuesday AM activity in the JKL CWA. This outlook primarily exists for locally damaging thunderstorm wind gust potential, but the most likely solution is that a weakening line of storms becomes elevated in nature as it approaches the I-75 corridor. The greatest overlap between favorable ingredients for severe weather is not currently over our part of Kentucky for this first wave of active weather, but regardless, we will be closely monitoring the evolution of the upstream convection on Monday evening.

Said evolution will prove highly consequential to Tuesday's sensible weather forecast, as it could leave residual outflow boundaries that act as focal points for additional convection later that afternoon/evening. The forecast guidance suite continues to keep the actual surface cold front to the northwest of the area on Tuesday afternoon, and that day's temperature forecast has accordingly increased. The previous night's warm air advection and cloud coverage will keep AM lows well above normal readings closer to 60, and breezy prefrontal southwesterly winds will remain in place across most of the forecast area into the evening hours. This allows afternoon highs to climb towards the upper 70s/lower 80s again, especially in SE KY. Tuesday afternoon's airmass will be much more moist than Monday's though, with forecast dewpoints now in the upper 50s/low to mid 60s. A shortwave disturbance looks to propagate towards the Ohio River Valley aloft during this time frame, meaning that any additional storms could overlap with the diurnal heating/instability cycle. LREF mean soundings across southern Kentucky on Tuesday evening resolve approximately 1000 J/kg of CAPE and 40 knots of effective bulk shear. The related hodographs are curved in the lower levels, suggesting that a HSLC (high shear, low CAPE) type set-up may come to fruition with this second wave of activity. During the last long term SPC forecast package, there was too much compounding forecast uncertainty leftover from Monday night's risk for a Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook this far north. However, ML/AI/Analog guidance continues to tick Tuesday's PM severe weather potential upwards, and interests should continue to monitor for forecast updates. Confidence is increasing that an active baroclinic zone will set up through midweek, and if convective activity isn't realized on Tuesday, then Wednesday may come into play.

As guidance has trended slower with Monday's first wave of convection and stronger with Tuesday's second, it has collectively kept the parent boundary in the vicinity of the forecast area on Wednesday. With quasi zonal flow aloft, the forcing for any additional midweek storms lies in mesoscale details that are hard to pinpoint at the extended temporal range. However, the 12z LREF ensemble data suggests that there may be conditionally favorable parameter spacing for another round of stronger thunderstorms on Wednesday. The likely stationary nature of the frontal boundary and long/straight ensemble mean hodographs mean that this risk is likely marginal, but the 12z deterministic models placed Eastern Kentucky in the vicinity of the left exit region of a zonal 300mb jet streak around the base of a digging upper level trough. If the resultant synoptic lift overlaps with the warm side of that boundary and mesoscale convective enhancements within our CWA, some stronger (potentially splitting) cells cannot be ruled out. At the very least though, this set up will lead to some highly beneficial rainfall.

Storm total QPF from Monday evening through Wednesday night generally sits between 1.25 inches in the Northeast/Big Sandy Basin to 1.75 inches in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. The model blend used to populate these grids currently sits outside of the temporal range of the higher-resolution CAMS, so expect more spatial variability and the potential for locally-enhanced totals in the final storm total QPEs. The LREF Ensemble probabilities generally follow the same lower to higher NE to SW gradient when it comes to receiving at least 1 inch of measurable rainfall over that 60 hour time frame. The highest exceedance probabilities (around 75%) are currently in the Cumberland River Basin, with values closer to 55% in our northeastern counties. Given that the KJKL and KLOZ climate record sites are both currently below their climatological rainfall averages for the month of April and the year to date, this rain is welcome to fall. Given the potential for convectively-enhanced higher amounts and the signal for multiple rounds of convection, WPC has placed southern counties in a Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The dry ground should be able to soak most of this rainfall up, and widespread river flooding is unlikely in the various hydro ensembles, but nuisance-type ponding of water is possible in the typical areas of poor drainage. Ideally, all of this activity is able to put a dent in the widespread D1 (moderate) to D2 (severe) drought currently observed across Kentucky.

Deeper mid to upper level troughing digs into the Ohio River Valley headed into the weekend. Strengthening WNW flow aloft will work to advect a cool, continental airmass into the forecast area, and the aforementioned, stubborn frontal boundary is poised to finally shift out of the CWA on Thursday. Precipitation chances and sky cover tapers off as drier air filters in throughout the column; they give way to highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. These readings are below climatological norms for Eastern Kentucky at the end of April, and reinforcing shots of colder air arrive in the region as shortwave disturbances rotate around the base of the broader troughing to kick off the month of May. While these disturbances may yield additional precipitation chances, increasing model spread makes it difficult to pinpoint timing and magnitude details. Guidance previously depicted a southern stream system brushing the CWA next weekend, but the 12z suite backed off this idea. The time- lagged NBM ensemble smooths out the PoPs related to that system and the troughing perturbations into low end chances to close out the forecast period, but the more impactful sensible weather is likely to be observed on the thermometers at the start of may. The overarching synoptic pattern favors below normal temperatures for the first days of May, potentially reaching much below normal readings on May 2nd and 3rd. The CPC extended-range hazard outlook is centered on these colder temperatures due to their potential to cause a frost, and their 8-14 day temperature outlook highlights a 50-60% chance of below normal temperatures across the greater Ohio River Valley. Those with interests sensitive to frost (such as agricultural crop producers or recreational gardeners) are encouraged to monitor for updates as the calendar turns to May.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026

A couple of stray showers or sprinkles are possible south of the TAF sites over the first couple hours of the period. Otherwise, fog is expected to form in valleys and areas with the more substantial rainfall across the south where breaks in the clouds occur, but TAF sites are still not expected to be affected by the fog at this point. What fog would likely lift any areas where a low cloud deck currently over southeast OH and WV drifts in from the northeast or developing southwest into the area overnight. The fog/and or stratus deck could bring a period of MVFR or worse conditions to affected locales through as late as 13Z to 14Z, and this may affect locations as far west as KSYM to KJKL. A longer period of potential stratus was included in the TAF for KSJS. Otherwise, fog, low clouds, and/or status should mix out between 13Z and 16Z. Generally, winds should be light and variable or north to east at less than 10K through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.