textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Some light snow accumulations are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with a weak and progressive system brushing the area from the north and northeast.

- A passing storm system to our south will bring a small chance of mainly rain to portions of eastern Kentucky Friday into Saturday. - Below normal temperatures will persist through New Year's Day. Temperatures will overall trend warmer through early next week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 330 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2025

The long wave pattern will start out amplified over the majority of the CONUS. A sprawling upper level low starts out positioned near Hudson Bay, with broad cyclonic flow expanded southward across the eastern third of the CONUS. Meanwhile, sharper ridging will be aligned from British Columbia through the Four Corners region. The southeastern Canadian low will continue to spiral over the vicinity of the Hudson Bay region through the weekend. The broader cyclonic flow in the East will gradually relent with time, as the upstream ridge approaches and dampens the flow east of the Mississippi River. Model agreement is good through Saturday, but then lessens by the second half of the weekend and especially by early next week.

On Thursday, the clipper system will be pulling away early in the morning, with light snow/flurries quickly coming to end after daybreak in far eastern Kentucky. Temperatures will be a bit colder compared to Wednesday, as highs recover to the mid 30s north of the Mountain Parkway, to the mid 40s down in the Cumberland Valley. Winds will turn southerly Thursday night, with plenty of high clouds moving in from the southwest. Still, valleys should decouple, with the typically colder spots dipping into the lower 20s, while ridgetops stay above 30.

An influx of cloud cover is now looking like the majority of impact from a passing southern stream storm system Friday into Saturday. The blended guidance probabilities have come down sharply on measurable precipitation during this time frame compared to previous days. Not too surprisingly, low temperatures have also come down in the north for Friday night, as north to northeast low level flow and the potential for at least partially clearing skies will allow for some mid 20s north of the Mountain Parkway. If light precipitation were to occur, it will likely fall as rain.

Drier weather will take hold for the second half of the weekend and into early next week. Model guidance differs quite a bit on the impact of the next weather system. Will stick with the given blended slight chance PoPs to return to the forecast by Monday night, but this is low confidence at best, as timing and amplitudinal differences in smaller scale features are both apparent at this time. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal through early next week, so any precipitation would likely be in liquid form.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1206 AM EST TUE DEC 30 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with the exception of some brief, localized dips to MVFR ceilings over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area. West to southwest winds will pick up during the day Wednesday, with gusts near 20 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.