textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above normal temperatures persist into the weekend. - The heat, humidity, and a nearby frontal boundary could foster isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the area at various times over the next several days.

- Rain chances increase early next week as the persistent upper level ridging breaks down.

UPDATE

Issued at 1142 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026

PoPs were adjusted for the ongoing showers and thunderstorms along I-75. The weather forecast grids were edited to reflect the PoP adjustments and current radar trends. These showers and storms should taper off in the next hour or so. Widespread low stratus and/or fog is still expected for much of eastern Kentucky overnight. Areas that received rainfall earlier this afternoon and evening may end up with localized dense pockets of fog overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 638 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026

Freshened up the near-term grids with the latest observational and model data. No major changes were made to the forecast. Showers and storms continue across portions of the CWA, though strength and coverage should gradually diminish heading later into the evening. Fog may begin to develop shortly after 00Z and may be in more places than just the favored river valley locations. Areas that received rainfall earlier this afternoon may see localized dense pockets of fog overnight.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 342 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026

A rather chaotic upper level setup is anticipated across the CONUS to start the long term period. The main belt of prevailing westerlies aloft will be well to our north, largely in Canada. South of that, a number of features semi-disconnected from the main flow will be over the CONUS, but with largely zonal flow over the Ohio Valley and little flow to the south. A surface frontal boundary should be stalled over or near KY along the southern edge of the flow aloft. This boundary could serve as a broad focus for convective development Sunday night into Monday.

The most significant feature aloft for our local area at the start of the period will be a trough (and possibly weak low) over the northern plains. This feature traces back to a current position over ID. As it drifts east, models are in relatively good agreement through Wednesday for it to form a larger closed low near the Great Lakes. The resulting trough over the eastern CONUS will support a transition to cooler weather, but the details of potential fropa for the local area are a little messy, as the cooler air is expected to make better progress down the eastern side of the Appalachians. This potentially pinches the warmer air mass along the western side here. We should see an increased POP with the transition in air masses around mid week, but the details are murky as to how/when a full transition eventually takes place. Model solutions also begin to show more variation with the evolution of the upper low at the end of the week, particularly in the way it shifts east and with ridging trying to build east toward the Great Lakes. This lowers confidence in the forecast at the end of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026

At the 06Z TAF issuance, the last few showers were dissipating over the Lake Cumberland region. Otherwise, a mix of fog and low stratus were already developing across the area and are likely to lead to MVFR to VLIFR ceilings/visibilities overnight. The worst conditions generally expected at terminals south of I-64 and east of I-75. Improving conditions back to VFR are expected from 13 to 16Z Saturday. Some thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon out of the northwest. PROB30s are present at all sites except SME to account for this potential. Conditions could drop into MVFR or worse should a thunderstorm occur. Winds should remain light and variable through the period, except locally strong and erratic near thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.