textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected from today through Friday. Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a distinct potential for strong to damaging wind gusts - especially today and tonight. - Instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding - particularly today through Thursday.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for the northeastern 2/3rds of eastern Kentucky until 8 AM EDT on Wednesday, primarily for flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 1047 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

It's been an extremely busy evening. Significant convection has finally dropped south of the forecast area, but there still could be hydro issues where the most recent heavy rain has fallen in our southwestern counties. Hopefully, this will have a chance to subside before precip potentially regenerates. Mesoscale models are wanting to develop more convection over the area overnight as low level warm/moist advection from the west southwest strengthens and impinges on the boundary left by our prior convection. Considering recent history, there's not exactly high confidence in how this plays out. The forecast has been updated to track the current activity out of the area and bring in higher POPs again by dawn.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 424 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

With a strong ridge across the Gulf of America and parts of the Southern Mississippi Valley, and a strong upper level low in eastern Canada. The result will be strong NW to SE flow across the Ohio Valley, including Kentucky on Thursday - a continuation from the short term portion of the forecast. With an elongated surface boundary also set up across the Ohio Valley, this could continue the pain train of MCS's passing southeast and through the region on Thursday. In some promising news, the ridge does start to build northward on Friday, which will push the storm trajectory north a bit. However, could still impact the northeast portion of the state during the day. The ridge will continue to build in further as we go into Saturday, sustaining through Sunday, before it's pushed back southward during the day Monday as troughing increases along the Atlantic Coast, reintroducing the same NW to SE flow to the region again through the rest of the forecast period.

As has been discussed over the past days, with each round of MCSs that moves through, another round of heavy to torrential rainfall will occur on increasingly saturated soils - so the flash flood threat will remain a concern. CAMS have really not been handling these MCSs well in the short term, both spatially or temporally. And if the CAMs aren't handling it well, the long-term models are also not lending much confidence. Friday is also a bit interesting because the upper level forcing will be lessoning, but the surface boundary will finally drop southward into the state as a cold front, which could continue some convection across the region - though still unclear if there will actually be an MCS or just more scattered to widespread convection. By Saturday, as ridging takes further hold and the surface boundary drops farther south of the state, high pressure should generally be in control. This should persist into Sunday. The NBM does still have some very low end pops, mainly along the far eastern side of the state, but don't expect anything more at this point.

When the pattern begins to set back up with SW flow on Monday into Tuesday, WPC is also analyzing another cold front shifting southeast through the state as well, which, if it pans out, would bring yet another increase in precipitation to the region.

Despite the passage of cold fronts and numerous systems moving through, overall temperatures are forecast to rather steady-state, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Lows will be in the upper

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

Rain will continue to move out of the area and diminish early tonight while additional scattered showers and storms develop. The predictability of the coverage and location of these showers/storms is low, making the forecast low confidence and messy. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible at times through the rest of the TAF period.

Outside of storms, winds will be light and variable. Some fog is also possible later tonight into Wednesday morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 069-086>088-104-106>120.