textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A passing storm system to our south will bring a chance of rain to portions of eastern Kentucky Friday night into Saturday. - Temperatures will average a near to slightly below normal through this weekend and then trend above normal next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 620 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a weak cold front stalled through the northeast portion of the area. This is keeping skies rather cloudy for that portion of the JKL CWA with clear skies elsewhere. Currently, temperatures vary from the upper 20s and lower 30s in the northeast to the mid 40s southwest. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are generally in the upper 20s northeast and low 30s southwest. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 359 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026

The long-term period opens Saturday morning with good model agreement -- mean 500 hPa troughing is in place over the eastern CONUS downstream from robust ridging along the spine of the Rocky Mountains. A shortwave trough is passing over the Mid-Mississippi Valley as it traverses through the parent trough. At the surface, a cold front or remnant baroclinic zone is noted near the KY-TN border, while multiple waves of low pressure ride along a wavy cold front extending from North Carolina back into Texas.

The more predominant low, out ahead of the 500 hPa shortwave trough aloft, will transit from Alabama east to off the Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening, potentially bringing a period of light WAA precipitation to southeast Kentucky, primarily before mid- afternoon. Any precipitation looks to be largely confined to near and southeast of the Hal Rogers/KY-80 corridor and very light, ranging from a hundredth to a tenth for most. As the low pulls away later in the day, the baroclinic zone/cold front will follow, allowing a slightly cooler and drier air mass to infiltrate across eastern Kentucky. Heading into Sunday, the large-scale trough aloft will finally begin pulling away to the east, allowing the western ridging to press east (models do show some disagreement as to how quickly this occurs). This will encourage surface high pressure to drop southeast from Canada, build across the Ohio Valley early Sunday morning, and crest to our north later that day. As that high exits off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Monday, a mild southwesterly return flow will become established across our area, bringing the return of well above normal temperatures. The ridging aloft does flatten heading through the new work week as multiple Pacific disturbances pass aloft. This includes a potential weak surface low moving from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley mid-week, dragging a weak and stalling cold front into the Commonwealth. A subsequent system may ride along the resulting baroclinic zone late in the week, but growing model spread leaves the specific details uncertain at this point.

In sensible weather terms, look for near to below normal temperatures through Sunday before temperatures surge well above normal for the new work week. Saturday starts off cloudy with the potential for some light rain, primarily over southeast Kentucky. Otherwise, it will be cool with high temperatures in the upper 30s north to lower 50s far southeast. Clearing skies and widespread lows in the 20s follow for Saturday night. Sunday is the better weather day of the weekend with mostly sunny skies, but seasonably cool high temperatures ranging from the upper 30s north to mid 40s south. Dry weather and a marked warming trend follow for Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 50s and upper 50s/lower 60s, respectively. The mild weather continues Wednesday and Thursday along with a renewed potential for some rainfall.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 655 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026

Weak and brief surface high pressure continues to build into the bulk of the area early this evening allowing for most terminals to be VFR. Terminal KSYM (and possibly KSJS) will remain MVFR through 02Z before improving to VFR for most of the night. Lower CIGs work back into the area near dawn, though leading to terminals KJKL, KSYM, and KSJS dropping back into MVFR and possibly to IFR for a brief time around mid-morning. Light and variable winds hold through the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.