textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather persists into next week, with mostly clear skies, mild days, and chilly nights expected.

- Light, patchy frost may develop late tonight and Sunday and Monday nights in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks. Fog is more likely near those bodies of water.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026

At the start of the long term period, a stubborn 500 mb ridge will still be centered just west of the forecast area, with a well defined negatively tilted shortwave trough over the Central Plains, just west of this ridge. At the surface, this shortwave will correspond to an area of low pressure near the KS/CO border, with surface high pressure firmly in place over the Ohio Valley. As this shortwave lifts northeast along the periphery of the ridge, it will work to flatten the ridge somewhat, and a second midlevel disturbance will also work to reinforce troughing over the Northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. Eventually, these impulses will finally break down the ridge over our area. Meanwhile, at the surface, an area of low pressure associated with the first shortwave will lift to the northeast from the Plains into the Upper Midwest. A diffuse frontal boundary, previously stalled over Ohio, will also lift back north of the area with this system as a warm front, completely failing to affect our local weather. Instead, high pressure will continue to dominate through the end of the work week.

With high pressure in control, extremely pleasant weather is expected to continue through Friday. Highs each day will be above average, but still only rising into the low to mid 70s, accompanied by ample sunshine. A possible exception could be Wednesday, when a shift to southwesterly flow aloft will allow for an embedded shortwave disturbance or two to pass over the area. Even so, in the absence of better moisture, no rainfall is expected. Instead, the main impact to the forecast would be increased cloud cover on Wednesday, with marginally warmer lows possible should cloud cover persist overnight. Otherwise, high pressure and a weak pressure gradient will allow for ridge valley temperature splits to develop, with lows in the valleys generally ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s in the first portion of the period, while ridges remain more in the low to mid 40s. Expect typical fog formation to accompany these cool temperatures in mainstem river valleys. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out for the coolest and most sheltered valleys early Tuesday morning; however, this will largely depend on dewpoints going into the night, which will influence the magnitude of cooling in these locations. Raw NBM dewpoints are almost certainly too moist, an observation corroborated by ensemble guidance. LREF mean dewpoints look to be in the low to mid 40s rather than the NBM's low 50s, and given the depicted dry layer in deterministic model soundings, in addition to a lack of truly appreciable moisture advection, these 40s dewpoints seem reasonable. Even so, it is worth noting that should dewpoints be drier than forecast, more significant cooling would be possible, increasing the chance for patchy frost in hollows without a body of water. Regardless, minimum temperatures do trend warmer through the period, which should keep frost risk lower later in the week, although valleys will still be cooler than ridgetops.

By the end of the period, model spread increases significantly with respect to whether a ridging or troughing pattern is favored locally. However, it appears clear that rain is unlikely through Saturday, with the majority of LREF members favoring no measurable precipitation through the entire long term period. In short, weather should remain pleasant.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026

VFR conditions with light winds and clear skies (outside of a few passing high clouds tonight) can be expected through the TAF period. The one possible exception is the development of valley fog, which could possibly reach some of the valley terminals such as SME, LOZ, or IOB. Even then, any fog that develops or reaches these locations is likely to be brief and limited to an hour or so either side of sunrise Sunday morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.