textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder temperatures will make a comeback for the next week. - The greatest probability of precipitation (mainly rain) over the next week is Wednesday night or Thursday for most locations.

UPDATE

Issued at 650 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

Some mid and high level clouds were crossing the region at this point and temperatures had a general gradient from north and east to the southwest. Readings were in the 30s in the more north and east, with some 20s above 2500 feet elevation. Elsewhere temperatures were in the low 40s. The current forecast was in good alignment with recent observation, satellite, and radar trend. Thus only some minor adjustments to hourly grids over the 3 hours or so were made based on observation trends

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

The forecast period begins with a negatively tilted longwave trough oriented across much of the eastern CONUS. This feature will sustain the weather that began in the short-term window; however, the forecast area is now progged to be under the right entrance region of a departing jet streak. This positioning will promote the development of a surface low along the trailing cold front of the system, which is currently oriented under the left exit region of the jet. Through the day Thursday, the cold front and associated surface feature will track through the area, bringing widespread rain showers. As the supporting jet dynamics shift to the east, showers will decrease from northwest to southeast before ending by early Friday morning. Since the flow remains out of the west- southwest, temperatures will stay above freezing throughout the systems passage; however, a few flurries cannot be ruled out across the Bluegrass early Thursday morning. Temperatures are expected to start cool on Thursday with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s, but even warmer temperatures are forecast for Friday behind the departing system, with highs reaching the mid 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will build into the region behind the departing system, allowing for dry weather and warming temperatures through the weekend. However, the warming will plateau on Saturday due to an approaching shortwave trough progged to move through the Ohio Valley. The atmospheric column appears fairly dry, leading to less than 15% PoP on Sunday, but cloud cover associated with the system will limit diurnal warming, capping highs in the upper 40s across the Bluegrass and the lower 60s toward the TN/VA border.

As another longwave trough swings across the northern CONUS and southern Canada, the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will be positioned in the right entrance region of the jet core. Under this regime, surface cyclogenesis is forecast to occur late Sunday, with increasing PoP beginning Sunday night and persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. The area will be on the cusp of the freezing line; consequently, areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway will likely see a wintry mix Sunday night into Monday before thermal profiles warm, allowing for a transition to all rain as the dominant precipitation type.

The period will start with a passing wave bringing precipitation, followed by surface high pressure and warming temperatures into the weekend. A secondary wave is forecast for early next week, bringing an initial wintry mix followed by a transition to rain.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

VFR was reported at issuance time and VFR is expected to prevail until about 18Z when some MVFR may develop in the more southern locations, for from near a KJKL to KSJS line south. An overall lowering of clouds is expected with time, during the 00Z to 15Z timeframe. This will occur as an area of low pressure tracks from the northern Great Lakes across sections of Ontario and Quebec and trailing cold approaches and then sags into the OH Valley region. The pressure gradient between the approaching front and high pressure extending across FL and into portions of the Atlantic will increase tonight and winds aloft will also increase as the disturbance nears. This leads to some uncertainty in sustained winds at the surface in any given location, but otherwise, a LLWS threat will develop where there is less mixiness and winds are light and not gusty/more in the way of turbulence. At this point, the forecast opted for more in the way of turbulence for KIOB and toward LLWS threat for the remainder of the TAF sites with lower than average confidence. Some light rain is also possible as the front approaches, generally near or east of a line from KSYM to KJKL to non TAF site K1A6. Within or after any of this light rain, MVFR ceilings still cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, as the front sags into the area, low and mid level moisture is expected to increase, especially in the more southern locations toward the end of the period with the possibility of light rain. However, better rain chances and the probability of sub VFR ceilings areawide and IFR lower in the south increases Wednesday night after the period ends.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.