textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

- There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for the early to middle part of next week. Some wintry precipitation is possible during the Monday night through Tuesday night period.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 443 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025

The long-term forecast period commences with the continued dominance of surface high pressure. To the west, an upper-level trough is forecast to move rapidly from the Rocky Mountains across the Central Plains and eject into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This evolution will induce a warm front to lift northward through the Commonwealth, increasing the likelihood of precipitation beginning late Saturday night. There is potential for a rain-snow mix ahead of the warm front Saturday night, as surface temperatures may be marginally cold enough to support frozen precipitation. However, differences exist among model forecasts (e.g., soundings and critical thickness contours) with some suggesting all rain (NAM and ECMWF) and others a rain-snow mix (GFS). A slight lean towards a rain-snow mix for a few hours is included during the initial warm frontal passage. Once the warmer air mass is established, rain showers are likely through the day Saturday into Sunday until the passage of an associated cold front occurs overnight Sunday into early Monday. Backside snow showers will be possible Monday morning as strong CAA behind the cold front ushers significantly colder air back into the region.

A weak surface ridge is forecast for Monday, but models indicate it will quickly dissipate as another low-pressure system approaches from the south. A second warm front is expected to lift through the area, similar to Saturday nights setup, leading to the potential for another wintry mix on Tuesday. Confidence is low regarding the precise track of the surface low, critical temperatures, and critical thickness values, making the Tuesday forecast challenging. Nonetheless, the overall model trend suggests progressively colder solutions, necessitating close monitoring of this system. Following the departure of Tuesdays system, surface high pressure is forecast to rebuild into the area for Wednesday, but another system is projected to impact the region by Thursday.

The extended forecast period is highlighted by the passage of multiple shortwave systems that will bring periods of winter weather, commencing Saturday night and again on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 638 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this issuance and VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF window. Winds are light and variable presently but will increase this afternoon as a pressure gradient exists between the surface high and a surface low to the northeast. Winds are forecast to diminish toward 00Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.