textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A progressive cold front brings showers and numerous thunderstorms to the area on Friday, with a risk for strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall within the strongest storms.

- High pressure briefly ushers in cooler and drier air on Saturday, but unsettled weather and widespread rain chances return overnight into Sunday.

- Expect cooler than normal temperatures early next week as broad troughing dominates the weather pattern aloft.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 250 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026

The early part of the period will feature an upper low in the vicinity of Ontario and Hudson Bay with troughiness extending southward over the eastern CONUS. A wave moving through this trough will support a cold front which should move through the JKL forecast area from northwest to southeast on Sunday afternoon and evening. Due to the development of the upper trough, there will be a bit stronger flow aloft and more shear (although nothing phenomenal) than during preceding recent rounds of thunderstorms. Should there be enough instability, some strong storms won't be ruled out on Sunday, but the degree of instability remains uncertain. This is partly due to uncertainty in the timing of convection, with a potential for early day convection left over from an MCS originating to our west.

Once the front and its inclement weather move through, noticeably less humid air will arrive Sunday night and carry into the early part of the workweek. Additional waves will be moving through the eastern CONUS trough, but timing/location varies from model to model and run to run, leaving little confidence in the details of the forecast. The most significant wave looks to be late in the week, supporting another cold front to move through Thursday or Thursday night. Brisk low level southwest flow ahead of the front would bring warmer and more humid air back into our area briefly before the front arrives, and probably fuel a round of showers/thunderstorms.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through the afternoon ahead of a cold front, with best chances south and southeast of KSYM and KIOB. Chances may linger beyond 00Z for the 4 more southern/southeastern TAF locations based on trends since issuance. Otherwise, any thunderstorm that develops at or near a TAF site should bring brief reductions to MVFR/IFR or perhaps briefly lower, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds. Southwesterly to west winds should increase to near 10 kts through 18z. Winds will trend northwesterly between 18Z and 00Z and then gradually weaken to light and variable to end the period. As high pressure builds in and winds slacken late in the period, fog should affect valley locations by 04Z and after and some or all of the TAF sites could also experience fog lifting into them mainly from 06z onward. VFR conditions are expected after fog lifts/burns off between 11z and 14z Saturday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.