textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record warmth continues on Wednesday.

- The next potential for showers arrives from the northwest by late Wednesday and persists at times through Friday.

- A few thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain are possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly for areas north of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Pkwy Corridor.

- Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 613 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

The long term forecast period is defined by a significant change in sensible weather conditions across Eastern Kentucky. While the period begins on an unseasonably warm and wet note on Thursday, a potent cold front should sweep through the area on Friday and usher in a noticeably cooler and drier airmass for the weekend. In fact, Saturday's forecast features the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. A widespread frost is looking increasingly likely on Saturday night, but temperatures are forecast to moderate back towards climatological norms under fair skies early next week.

When the period opens on Thursday morning, the boundary responsible for Wednesday's convection will likely be stalled out in the vicinity of the Ohio River Valley. Its parent shortwave disturbance will have propagated off to the NE aloft, leaving zonal flow in place over the forecast area. So, in the absence of meaningful advection, rain chances remain in the forecast on Thursday. The highest PoPs are resolved closer to the stalled boundary in the northern half of the forecast area, but this does not align with the warmest temperatures. Persistent sky cover should limit highs to the upper 70s/near 80 in the places that are most likely to experience additional rain showers. While those forecast highs are still above average for this time of year, they are 5+ degrees cooler than they were on Wednesday. This corresponds with a lower risk for heavy rainfall and stronger storms, and the risk for hazardous weather appears low on Thursday.

The attention subsequently turns upstream towards the Great Plains, where the next impactful storm system will be setting up. A sharp trough ejecting southeast out of Canada will phase with a leeward Rocky Mountain trough to yield a deeper, positively-tilted feature over the Upper Midwest on Thursday evening. Vertically-stacked southwesterly flow around the base of that trough will advect warm air into the atmospheric column over the Ohio River Valley. The aforementioned boundary is accordingly forecast to lift back north as a warm front on Thursday night, and a deepening surface low should emerge over the Great Lakes by Friday morning. In response to the tightening pressure gradient, winds will become breezy overnight. This will prevent the area's conventional ridge-valley splits from materializing in this time frame, as the boundary layer should remain well mixed. Given the lack of decoupling and the warm air advection regime in place, Thursday night's temperature forecast looks unseasonably mild. Expect a muted diurnal heating curve, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Friday's high temperatures will be pretty similar to Thursday night's lows, as the cold front associated with this system will be on the doorstep of the JKL CWA on Friday morning. There should be enough forced lift for some generic rain showers over the CWA during and after Friday's frontal passage, but the greatest impacts from this boundary will stem from its cold air advection. The sharp nature of the parent troughing aloft and the fairly tight surface pressure gradient in this set up collectively suggest that there will be a pronounced shift from breezy southwesterly winds to gustier northwesterly winds as frontal passage occurs on Friday. Northwesterly wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range are likely on Friday afternoon/evening before the pressure gradient weakens overnight. The winds will retain their northwesterly orientation through Saturday morning, which will help them usher a noticeably cooler and drier airmass into the region for the weekend. That efficient cold air advection may actually cause temperatures to decrease during the afternoon hours on Friday, with widespread temps in the 50s by Friday evening and the 40s on Saturday morning.

Northerly winds associated with a post-frontal surface high will keep the cold air advection going on Saturday. High temps will struggle to make it out of the 50s, and afternoon dewpoints should plummet towards the low/mid 30s area-wide. Under mostly clear skies and slackening winds, Saturday night looks to be the coldest night of the season thus far. Efficient radiational cooling and those dry dewpoint values favor widespread low temperatures in the 30s and frost potential in more than just the typical cold spots. Near- freezing temperatures cannot be ruled out in the most sheltered and shadiest valley locales, but a widespread freeze appears unlikely. Nevertheless, frost/freeze headline products will need to be considered as this time frame approaches and forecast confidence continues to improve. Agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are accordingly encouraged to review any relevant frost preparedness plans and stay tuned for potential product issuance.

The progressive nature of the overarching synoptic weather pattern prevents this chillier air from becoming permanent. It is not winter yet, and winter precipitation is not expected. The postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the previous trough axis aloft swings through New England. Modeled height rises amidst a building ridge suggest that temperatures will moderate under fair skies in the latter stages of the forecast period. Expect highs to rebound into the 60s on Sunday and then towards the 70 degree mark early next week. Dewpoints will be slow to recover to the pre-frontal values forecast at the beginning of the period, but the approach of a southern-stream shortwave trough on Monday should return some moisture to the column by Monday night. So, while an additional round of patchy frost is possible in the coldest valleys on Sunday night, Eastern Kentucky's typical autumnal river valley fog should return to the forecast on Monday night.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected at TAF sites for the majority of the period, with winds remaining weak overnight. Valley fog will develop between 04Z and 13Z, bringing localized category reductions, although TAF sites should remain unaffected. Tomorrow, cloud cover will increase, with ceilings generally lowering from northwest to southeast. A few clouds around 5000 ft will reach KSJS, KIOB, and KSYM as early as 11Z, although prevailing VFR conditions are still expected. The exception will be within showers and thunderstorms, generally spreading from northwest to southeast, which could affect northern terminals as early as 19Z. Within this activity, temporary reductions to MVFR conditions or worse will be possible.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.