textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintery mix of precipitation is expected to spread north across the forecast area after dawn on Monday morning, but accumulations are forecast to be light. - A significant warming trend is expected over the next work week, but this leads to repetitive precipitation chances.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1253 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026

Zonal 500h pattern will exist at the beginning of the long term (Tuesday morning) with a warm/stationary front becoming established just to our north across the Ohio River Valley. Warm advection will increase through the end of the week as the upper pattern becomes increasingly more southwesterly, with deep troughing over the Southwest US and strong ridging over the Western Atlantic. The result will be temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal on average, with the potential for a few 80-degree readings across parts of the area Friday before a weak cold frontal passage next weekend lowers temperatures at least partially and temporarily back towards normal readings.

The period has the potential to become quite active with rain chances generally increasing through the remainder of the week ahead of the expected cold frontal passage next weekend, with generally higher chances expected toward the northern and western parts of the forecast area. Thunderstorms will be a good bet as moisture increases and stability lowers, with the potential for a few strong storms by next weekend. Additionally, with the significant warm and moisture advection into the area it would seem reasonable there will be at least some increased risk for excessive rainfall for parts of the area, especially if there are multiple consecutive days of showers and storms.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026

Surface high pressure building in behind this morning's cold front has allowed for clearing skies and VFR TAFs. TAFs are forecast to remain VFR through much of the period; however, as an approaching system gets closer to the region, increasing and lowering CIGS are anticipated. Showers with mixed precipitation type are possible for all terminals except KLOZ and KSME (which are forecast to remain all rain) mainly after 12Z and continuing through 15Z before precipitation switches to all rain. During this time frame, TAFs are forecast to fall into categorical MVFR and remain there through the remainder of the TAF window. Winds are forecast to be less than 10 knots through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.