textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain will remain in the forecast off and on for the next 7 days.

- A warming trend is expected throughout the week, with highs in the 70s by Wednesday, and peaking in the upper 70s and low 80s for Friday and Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1205 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026

Late evening obs were blended into the forecast without any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 950 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026

Only isolated showers remained as of mid evening. Latest guidance suggests some more showers will affect portions of the area late tonight, especially our northeastern counties. This is followed by another break lasting into the day Tuesday before the next increase occurs.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 503 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026

The long wave pattern will feature a transition from zonal flow, to an amplified/split-flow regime across the CONUS through early next week. Ridging will persist across the western Atlantic, while eastern Pacific energy moves onshore, eventually reaching the Four Corners region by Friday. A cut off low then emerges off of the Baja California through the weekend, with broader troughing seen across the northern third of the CONUS. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will remain in place across the Ohio Valley, drifting further north of the Ohio River through Thursday, before pushing southeast as a cold front into this weekend and early next week. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding smaller scale features beyond Thursday; however, confidence remains high that eastern Kentucky will remain in the warm sector throughout the long term portion of the forecast.

Sensible weather-wise, this will ensure well above normal temperatures, with readings peaking at 25 to 30 degrees above normal Friday through Saturday, as short wave ridging tightens up across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Highs will build from the low to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday, to the upper 70s to lower 80s for Friday and Saturday, warm enough to threaten maximum temperature records for the 6th and 7th of March. Lows will also modify to the 50s and 60s each night, with maximum low temperature records also being threatened at times during the period. Consequently, this warmth will be accompanied by lingering rain chances across the area into next week, peaking with mid and upper level support surges. Locations near and north of I-64 will generally see the highest PoPs through early next week, being positioned closer to the stalled frontal boundary. Depending on how things evolve, both a stronger storm and localized hydro threat could emerge at times for the second half of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailed over most of the JKL forecast area at the start of the period, but there were isolated light showers affecting some places. VFR conditions should generally persist into the day Tuesday.

An increase in showers is probable from mid day into the afternoon on Tuesday, with the greatest concentration of showers north of the Mountain Parkway. With this there will likely be a reduction to MVFR conditions for a time, especially near/north of I-64.

A potential for low level wind shear also persists overnight tonight into Tuesday morning for most of the area.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.