textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist through Monday.

- Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a possibility for strong to damaging wind gusts. - Excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, or train, leading to flash flooding.

- Heat indices will flirt with Heat Advisory levels (~105F) again this afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 750 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026

Following the frontal passage Monday evening, drier air will advect in from the north for Monday night. By Tuesday, dewpoints will be only in the mid to upper 60s, with perhaps a few areas in the 70s in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. Highs will also be marginally cooler, generally in the mid to upper 80s, and rain chances are looking to be low. Of note, a few recent model runs do depict subtle shortwave energy traversing the area, which could inspire a few showers or storms, although this scenario still appears unlikely at this time.

The next robust rain chances will arrive Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. Aloft, troughing will continue to dig into the Great Lakes region, and the ridge to the south will continue to flatten. Meanwhile, an additional cold front will push southeast, with rain chances ticking up again late Wednesday. Moisture will return quite quickly as winds become southwesterly ahead of the front, and PW values look to leap again too (with LREF mean PW in the 1.6-1.7 in range for much of the area, representing at least the 75th percentile compared to climatology). As in previous days, this environment could support at least an isolated flash flooding risk; WPC has again placed the majority of the forecast area in a Day 4/5 Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall.

Behind the front, temperatures will be noticeably cooler. With eastern Kentucky sitting near the base of the upper level trough, flow aloft will either be zonal or northwesterly, with models still disagreeing about the exact orientation of the trough at this stage in the forecast. Regardless, this pattern will open eastern Kentucky up to additional shortwave impulses. Although exact timing is difficult to resolve at this timescale, broad rain chances have been maintained each day through the end of the period for now.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026

Outside of localized fog in sheltered river valley locations, VFR conditions are noted across eastern Kentucky terminals at the 12Z TAF issuance. The valley fog will lift and dissipate by 13-14Z, leaving behind a cumulus field with cloud bases near 5-7kft AGL. Although a stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out today, greater convective coverage should hold off until the evening and nighttime hours as a cold front sags into the area. Winds will generally be southwesterly at 10KT or less, except locally stronger and erratic near thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.