textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue at times into the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially today and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area through early Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 758 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

Forecast is still on track so far this morning. Loaded in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds, to make sure the near term grids were in line with the current conditions. This only resulted in minor changes. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

At the onset of the long term period, a vertically stacked low will be located near the IL/KY border, with general upper level troughing over the northeastern CONUS and Mid Atlantic. Meanwhile, a strong upper level high will sit over the Mountain West. This low will generally meander to the south around the periphery of this western ridging, eventually becoming cut off from broader upper level troughing that departs the northeastern CONUS by Monday. This cutoff low will introduce some additional uncertainty into the long term forecast; however, by Sunday, it appears likely that the southward translation of this system will finally bring the troublesome boundary through the forecast area as a weak cold front. A moist air mass will continue to be in place ahead of the front, and with weakening flow aloft, storm motion is expected to be slow. These factors, in addition to wet antecedent conditions, indicate that isolated flash flooding will be possible again on Sunday, particularly in the southern half of the forecast area where instability will be higher. Accordingly, the Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall in our southern counties. Thankfully, any flash flooding risk should be more isolated in nature than in days prior, and rain chances should decline overnight with the loss of daytime heating.

Looking ahead into next week, there is general model agreement that upper level ridging will migrate to the east; accordingly, surface high pressure will dominate Kentuckys weather by the end of the forecast period. However, the pattern early next week shows considerably more uncertainty, owing to model differences regarding the progression of the cutoff low. Some guidance keeps this low meandering through KY/TN until midweek, allowing for additional scattered convection (particularly in our southwestern counties). Alternatively, some guidance suggests this low could translate south quickly, allowing for drier weather to return earlier in the week. For now, confidence remains low in any given outcome, but the general trend is that rain chances look to diminish by midweek at the latest as high pressure builds. Temperatures also look to trend warmer by midweek.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 809 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

A variation of MVFR to VFR conditions are in place across all TAF sites, with lowest CIGS in the northern TAF sites. However, expect conditions to deteriorate as the next round of rainfall moves towards eastern KY over the next few hours. The coverage of precip should peak over the JKL forecast area from mid-morning until early afternoon, with IFR and LIFR conditions probable at times. Additional showers/thunderstorms area expected from the afternoon and well into the overnight. However, confidence drops off as to how these continued showers/storms evolve and where they will set up. TAFs will likely fluctuate throughout the period for visibility and cigs depending on when storms move through, so will need to update accordingly. Overall, winds will be light and variable at less than 10 kts outside of any convection.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.