textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist into the weekend, with colder weather expected to arrive early next week. - Periodic rain chances will occur through much of the holiday week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 330 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

The first several days of the long term period will feature a frontal boundary wavering back and forth over the region. This may result in rain or drizzle at times, but with west to northwest upper level flow and a lack of significant systems otherwise, any precip should be relatively light. The frontal position will be a key factor in temperatures. Latest model runs show it just to our south at dawn on Wednesday, then progressing north and east through the area as a warm front on Wednesday night, leaving us in a mild air mass to start the day on Christmas. Models have now trended cooler later on Christmas day in our northern counties as the front drops back south as a cold front and then stalls over KY. There is potential for a forecast temperature bust on Christmas due to the exact position of the front being critical. Regardless of how far south the front makes it, it is still forecast to shift north and east as a warm front Christmas night and Friday, putting us back into an unseasonably mild air mass as we progress into the weekend.

Definitive change is still on course later in the weekend. Pattern amplification is expected as an upper trough drops southeast over the eastern CONUS early in the new week, with a closed low developing and tracking somewhere through the region of the Great Lakes, New England, and southeast Canada. This allows a substantial cold front to pass through our area on Saturday night or Sunday (there's still timing uncertainty in models), with winter temperatures arriving Sunday and carrying forward. At this time it would appear that significant precipitation associated with the front would be tapering off before the atmosphere becomes cold enough to support snow.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through at least 00z at all terminals, but an approaching disturbance will begin to bring and increase in clouds and moisture. A few locations in the west and northwest could reach MVFR ceilings by 06Z including KSYM with MVFR spreading to the east and southeast through the end the period. Some light rain will reach the ground within it and there could be times where ceilings are in the lower end of the MVFR range, especially after 15z Tuesday. Winds will be southeast to south at less than 10 kts through this afternoon, veering toward the south to southwest tonight, and then more southwesterly to west- southwesterly after 12z Tuesday through the end of the TAF period. Finally, a low-level jet will lead to a level wind shear threat between about 02z and 14z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.