textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, muggy, and mostly dry weather takes hold for today. Afternoon highs around 90 degrees combined with high humidity will push peak heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees.

- A progressive cold front brings showers and numerous thunderstorms on Friday, with a threat for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall.

- High pressure ushers in a brief break of cooler and drier air for Saturday, before unsettled weather and rain chances return Sunday through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026

A decaying MCS is approaching northern Kentucky from Southern Indiana at update time. While continuing to weaken for now, the latest SPC mesoanalysis is suggesting a pool of better instability passing from Central Kentucky into the Mid-Ohio Valley by late morning. Shear and forcing are minimal, but it is conceivable that some of this instability may aid in maintaining some weak convection into area near and north of I-64 by late morning/early afternoon. Forecast confidence is low, but slight chance/chance PoPs were added north of the Mountain Parkway for a few hours either side of midday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 601 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026

The forecast period will begin Friday evening with a cold front over southeastern Kentucky. Any severe threat should be diminished by that time but at least scattered convection is likely to continue until ~3Z near the VA/KY border. Once that front pushes fully through, a weak CAA regime will take hold as the flow aloft trends more quasi-zonal.

Weak surface high pressure will build into the region behind the front for Saturday and Saturday evening. Daytime highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s, while overnight lows range from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Unfortunately, this weak surface high pressure will be pushed out of the area late Saturday night as a second cold front drops southeastward into the region. This next system will bring increasing shower and storm chances beginning Sunday morning and persisting into Monday. Drier conditions now appear increasingly probable thereafter from late Monday through Wednesday, though the NBM still maintaining some low end PoPs for now.

Temperatures will certainly be cooler early next week with highs only in the low to mid 80s on Sunday, followed by mainly 70s to 80F on Monday and Tuesday, moderating slightly for Wednesday. Nighttime temperatures will also be cooler, dipping back into at least the upper 50s for most locales by Monday and Tuesday nights.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026

Outside of patchy fog in the deeper river valleys, VFR conditions were present to start the period. An upstream MCS is approaching the northern Kentucky from southern Indiana and on a steady weakening trend. However, there is a low chance that this system could maintain and potentially impact locations near and north of I-64 late this morning and early afternoon. Consequently, a PROB30 group was added to the IOB and SYM TAFs. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Light and variable winds this morning will become southwesterly around 10 kts or less this afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.