textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will bring dry and seasonally cool early autumn weather into early next week.

- Chances for showers could return by the second half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1006 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

The forecast was updated to allow for longer lingering fog and low clouds, mainly in southeast KY. Along with this there will be a delayed rise in temperatures there.

UPDATE Issued at 755 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

Fog was rather prevalent in valleys south of I-64 and east of I-75 and in portions of the Cumberland Valley south of Lake Cumberland to the TN border. Temperatures had also not cooled quite a quickly as had been forecast for low this morning. Minor adjustments to the areal extent and intensity of the fog over the next couple of hours as well hourly temperatures have been made.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

The beginning of this period will still be in the northeast flow regime in the lower levels and northerly flow at 500 mb resulting in drier and pleasant weather. That said, the northeast flow results from being upwind of a strong surface low off the New England coast and between that low and the axis a ridge of sfc high pressure extending from Quebec across the Great Lakes and into the TN and OH Valleys. This flow will keep highs roughly 5 to 10 degrees below normal for late September, in the upper 60s to low 70s for Sunday. Our positioning relative to the New England low, the upper level ridging extending across the central US to the Great Lakes, and sfc high pressure extending into the Lower OH Valley and Commonwealth will keep eastern KY dry for the rest of the weekend as well. Fog along the river valleys will be likely Saturday and Sunday Night, but otherwise skies should remain mostly clear for the remainder of the weekend. It's also worth mentioning that valley inversions/ridge valley temperature splits should be present Saturday night and Sunday Night, with lows in the low to mid 40s in the valleys and upper 40s to low 50s on the ridges.

The start of the week will also be pleasant with the previously mentioned upper ridge in the central US migrating east into the region as the sfc and upper low initially over the Mid Atlantic states departs to the northeast. This ridge and associated sfc high pressure will keep conditions dry for the first half of the week and also help bring about a gradual warming trend. Expect highs on Monday to be in the low to mid 70s and warming each day until the 80s return around Wednesday. Ensembles show broad troughing from the central US at midweek, while the axis of ridging shifting east. This results in some low end pops as early as Wednesday. PoPs look to be persistent through the end of the work week and beyond given uncertainty in the evolution of this trough and sfc features. Daily rainfall chances from Wednesday into next weekend does make sense given the broad and elongated trough that both ensemble and deterministic guidance is suggesting. This troughing pattern will bring west to southwesterly surface flow and eventually some Gulf moisture which will allow >60 degree dewpoints to move in mid-late week. These higher dewpoints will bring a notable increase in humidity as well aside from rain chances. All in all, expect the return of warmth and eventually some rain by the end of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026

A couple of patches of stratus and stratocu were present at issuance time, but the primary cause of reductions in visibility and category was valley fog. This fog extended beyond the river valleys in parts of the Big Sandy region and south of KJKL and KSJS was affected. Otherwise, outside of the patchy low clouds and valley fog, VFR was reported. Fog should lift and dissipate through the 13Z to 14Z timeframe giving way to VFR for the duration of the period at the TAF sites as high pressure builds in also ushers in a much drier airmass. Some valleys could experience fog between 04Z Sat and the end of the period, but should not affect the TAF sites. Winds will average around 5KT or light and variable to begin the period, before increasing to 4 to 9KT from the northeast to north around 15Z. Winds should again slacken back to light and variable to end the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.