textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent through Saturday night or Sunday, followed by much lower probabilities during most of the work week.

- Heat and humidity will become oppressive during the new week.

UPDATE

Issued at 835 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

A relative lull in convective activity is currently occurring across eastern KY. However, additional convection will near the region toward midnight. Hourly pops and temps were freshened up based on recent radar and observation trends.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 517 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

The long-term period opens on the first day of the new week and also of a weather pattern change. Model agreement is good on Sunday, showing an upper-level high over the Mississippi Delta with a building ridge axis extending northward into Northwestern Ontario and Northeast Manitoba. Meanwhile, an unseasonably deep upper- level low resides over the Northern Rockies and adjacent regions. At the surface, a weak cold front will be draped through the Ohio Valley and likely over or just northeast of the JKL CWA. High pressure resides over the Southeast US and out over the Central Atlantic.

High pressure will strengthen at the surface and become more entrenched over the eastern Kentucky Coalfields through midweek as the upper-level high strengthens and drifts northeast, eventually peaking near ~598 dam across the JKL CWA on Wednesday and Thursday. Initially, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue on Sunday with the frontal boundary still in the vicinity. As that frontal boundary retreats northeast early next week, heat and humidity will build as 850 hPa temperatures soar well above 20C. The threat for storms will become very isolated by Tuesday and Wednesday with the upper level high in close proximity. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return heading into the July 4th weekend, but increasing model disparity lends low confidence in the specific details.

In sensible terms, scattered showers and storms can be expected again on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows from 65 to 70 degrees. Mostly clear and hot conditions follow for the entire work week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday and lower to mid 90s from Tuesday onward. Nighttime lows stay mostly in the 70s. Heat indices will reach new highs each afternoon, with many places eclipsing the 100F mark on multiple days. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and may bring localized relief for some, but most locations will probably stay dry from Monday to Thursday, perhaps becoming a little more unsettled for Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

At issuance time, a lull in convection was occurring over eastern KY in between areas of convection now in WV and upstream over central KY and southern IN. VFR was reported across the region at issuance time. Upstream convection should arrive between 01Z and 03Z and progress east. This should lead to periods of MVFR and IFR reductions and the potential for thunder on station through at least 06Z. Some PROB30 groups were used for this and additional rounds of convection should occur between 06Z and 12Z as well. Overall, showers/thunderstorms will be a possibility through the period, but there remains rather low confidence in timing/ location, especially from 12Z onward and this continues to preclude using more than PROB30 in TAFs.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.