textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as a cold front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times, which could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also fine tune the PoPs through noon based on current radar imagery and the most current CAM thoughts. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

Model suites are in reasonable agreement for much of the long term period. The period begins Saturday evening with a weak upper level shortwave near or over eastern Kentucky producing numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms, with activity quickly winding down through the evening and overnight as the trough passes to the east, with heights rising in the wake of this system. This will lead to isolated convection Sunday, mainly confined to the higher terrain given the lack of synoptic scale forcing.

As we move into the beginning of the work week and into mid-week, we will see upper-level ridging become further established across the Southeast US. This ridging will be quite strong for this time of year, running above the 90th percentile. This will usher in mostly dry weather Monday into Tuesday, but with that will come warmer temperatures. The warmest day right now is expected to be Tuesday, with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Then by Wednesday into Thursday this ridging will start to breakdown and a cold front will progress across the Ohio Valley. There has been some timing differences with this boundary within the various model suites that will need to be resolved, but overall expect increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms through the mid to late week period. Then some of the guidance shows this boundary could usher in some much drier and cooler weather by late in the week into next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

Poor conditions will be the rule this morning as a mix of low clouds, fog, and roving convection continue to move across the area within this weak warm advection environment. The potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms become likely in the afternoon as even minimal instability will help to kick off convection upstream and over the area. Confidence in timing remains too low to include anything aside from PROB30 groups at any specific terminal at this time, though. Low clouds and fog could also be a problem tonight even as we probably see a lull in the showers and storms. Otherwise, away from any storms, winds will be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.