textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce locally heavy rain, along with strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

- Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast to begin the work week. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday morning may approach daily records, especially at Jackson.

- There is an increased risk for severe weather and flash flooding with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the mid to late week period (Wed-Fri). The location, magnitude, and timing of this event will evolve over the next few days, so continue to monitor forecasts.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 236 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026

There remains reasonable agreement among the various model suites to begin the long term period. We will see one more day of drier weather on Tuesday before it becomes more active. Afternoon highs are still slated for the upper 70s to near 80, as high pressure pushed east ahead of next upper level wave. A warm front is expected to progress northward across the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday ushering in a warm and moist airmass into eastern Kentucky. This could lead to a smaller chance of showers and storms mainly in the afternoon and evening at around the 15-25 percent range.

A more robust embedded shortwave will move from west to east across the Great Lakes region Wednesday night. This will aid in quickly deepening a surface low to futher activate the nearby frontal boundary. The pattern will likely become more mesoscale driven at times, with characteristics of a MCS like pattern potentially setting up across the Ohio Valley. This makes predictability on the lower side, but either way the pattern will become increasingly more active especially by Thursday given the synoptic features at play. Moisture will be abundant with model suites showing around a 60 to 80 percent chance of seeing greater than 1.75 PWAT values by Thursday. Another interesting feature showing up in the deterministic data has been a southern stream disturbance along and near the gulf coast and how that will play into the moisture potential. The guidance continues to suggest decent chance of seeing MUCAPE values climb to around 2000-3000 J/kg Thursday afternoon, but have seen this pool of instability bounce around the CWA. The effective shear will be a bit more lack luster at around 25-35 knots, but this could allow for at least some organization of convection. Overall the main threat at this point would be damaging winds given the high freezing levels noted while sampling area forecast soundings. That said, there would be a risk of heavy rainfall as well, with ample southwest flow and good access to deep gulf moisture. Also noted, the high freezing levels and aforementioned PWATs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range (Values running around 90th percentile or higher for this time of year). The ECMWF EFI also noted a decent signal in the SOT suggesting some heavy rain potential. The NBM deterministic data would suggest we see on average around 2-2.5 inches of rain from Wednesday afternoon into Friday. Something else to note Thursday is there will be a strengthening low level jet and decent mixing is noted in the forecast sounding data. This could aid in some gusty winds even outside of thunderstorms in the 25-35 mph range, with ECMWF EFI even more notable for strong wind potential and GEFS showing similar signals in the various ensemble perturbations. This setup bares watching through the week to see how the guidance trends.

This boundary will move southward to end the week and this would aid in bringing in drier weather by late next week into the weekend. However, this could be short lived, as some guidance is showing another storm system dropping in by Sunday. It should be noted that the guidance really diverges at this later timescale.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the entire forecast area this afternoon, likely ending with a line of showers and storms this evening moving across much of the area from northwest to southeast. Gusty winds may accompany the cold front passage, with an abrupt transition from west and southwest winds to north to northwest winds. The strongest storms could produce brief gusts as high as 25 to 40 kts. Otherwise, near and behind the cold front between ~00Z and 06z, up to a few hours of MVFR reductions in ceilings are possible, with at least partial clearing thereafter. With weak cold advection through the night, any fog after 06z should be limited to the deeper sheltered valleys, and are thus not expected at this time to impact the terminals.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.