textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer-than-average conditions continue tonight before a cold front passes through Eastern Kentucky tomorrow evening.

- This cold front will bring beneficial rainfall and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. - A cooling trend takes place headed into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1103 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

The cold front is approaching the Mississippi River with the bulk of the rain ahead of the front entering into western KY. Widespread showers have been developing out ahead of the main line of rain over the past few hours up to about the I-65 corridor. Confidence is still high in a rainy day across the forecast area for Wednesday, have raised low chance PoPs for the remaining overnight hours to account for showers ahead of the main event.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 523 PM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

An amplified long wave pattern will be in store over the CONUS through early next week. A positively tilted trough will start out aligned from the Great Lakes through the southern Plains, with an associated dampening surface low positioned over Lake Superior. The upper trough will gradually migrate eastward, with a cutoff low likely emerging over the Great Lakes. An associated surface cold front will cross the Commonwealth on Friday. Troughing will be reinforced east of the Mississippi River, as additional short wave energy traverses southeast from the central CONUS to the Southeast within the southern stream. In the northern stream, the troughing will be bolstered by energy translating across southeastern Canada. At the surface, broader high pressure will migrate south from the Midwest this weekend to the lower Mississippi Valley by early next week, with cooler and drier conditions seen across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Sensible weather will feature one more day of 70s for highs across most of eastern Kentucky on Thursday. Generally dry weather is expected, besides just enough lingering low level moisture that could promote some light rain showers early across our southeast. As a secondary cold front approaches late Thursday night into Friday, some light rain chances may be renewed across our southeast, although model guidance has been trending drier, so this may be more of a temporary increase in clouds only. Cooler and drier conditions will then be the story as we head into the weekend, with highs returning to the upper 50s and lower 60s, while lows drop back into the 30s. Cloud cover will dictate how cold the valleys get both Saturday and Sunday nights. At this time, Sunday night looks like the colder night, with some of the deeper valleys dipping to near or just below the freezing mark. More modest return flow ensues by next Tuesday, with highs moderating to the lower and middle 60s. Generally dry weather will also continue to hold on through that time.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 110 AM EST WED NOV 4 2026

VFR generally prevailed across the area at issuance time and VFR should generally prevail through the first 6 to 9 hours of the period though . Atmospheric moisture increases ahead of an approaching low pressure system, with clouds thickening and lowering. Ceilings gradually lower from west to east toward or into the MVFR range between 14Z and around 23Z. Showers may affect western portions of the area as early as 09Z and 12Z, with areas of showers and MVFR or perhaps briefly lower reductions spreading from west to east between about 12Z and 18Z, with strengthening southerly winds in this same time frame. Winds will strengthen aloft first, so some marginal LLWS is possible initially. Surface winds should be the lightest at northeastern terminals like KJKL tonight, so confidence in LLWS remains the greatest there. Once the stronger winds start to mix down after around 15Z, any LLWS should give way to surface wind gusts of 15-25KT. Additional showers are anticipated during the last 12 hours of the period as well along and in advance of the cold front, with MVFR or lower reductions. Winds become southwest to west at 10KT or less behind the boundary late. Overall, expect flight conditions to deteriorate beyond the first 6 to 9 hours of the period as the storm system approaches and moves into eastern KY.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.