textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak cold front brings a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm this evening, mainly near and northwest of I-64.

- Well above normal temperatures return for Tuesday through Saturday.

- Near-record heat is possible Thursday with high temperatures within a few degrees of 90F.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 415 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026

The extended period opens with an upper-level ridge settling into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys and surrounding areas of the Southeast US. Elsewhere, a trough resides north of the Northern Plains. Models depict a 598-600 dam high in the vicinity of Tennessee Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday, the aforementioned trough attempts to dig southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. However, model-to-model runs of the LREF Grand Ensemble show a stronger ridge, with influence extending further north into the Ohio Valley compared to previous runs. The upper-level ridge does eventually weaken and retrograde back to the southwest toward Texas heading into the weekend. This will leave the area under zonal flow with weak troughing.

At the surface, conditions remain fair both Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. A weak warm front will pass through the forecast area from the southwest on Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday, a surface cold front extending southwest from Quebec through the Ohio Valley, approaches the forecast area from the northwest. The stronger ridge mentioned previously has trended the model mean temperatures warmer for Thursday and has lowered forecaster confidence on the front actually coming through. 850-mb temperatures around 19-20 C suggest surface temperatures could climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Thursday. At JKL, the record high temperature is currently 90, set back in 1991. This could be in play. One thing that may hinder those chances would be any added cloud cover or convection. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible though confidence is low. Model spread does increase Thursday onward surrounding the evolution of the nearby front. Therefore shower and storm chances remain in the forecast through Sunday. Forecast temperatures should cool some heading into the weekend, with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026

A mixed high MVFR/low VFR cu field was in place over eastern Kentucky at the start of the 18Z TAF period. That cumulus field will persist into this evening before dissipating with the loss in diurnal heating. A weakening cold front will approach after sunset and will bring the possibility of an isolated shower or storm, primarily northeast of the KY-15 corridor. Confidence in impacts at any TAF sites was too low to mention. Fog is also expected to redevelop in many sheltered river valley locales overnight, but increasing low-level winds with the cold front should keep it away from the TAF sites. Winds will generally remain around or less than 5 kts through 6Z after which winds will gradually become north to northeast and increase to between 5 and 10 kts behind the cold front.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.