textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder weather returns today ahead of a cold frontal passage tonight, ushering in a cooldown for Sunday and Sunday night. - Periodic rain chances are forecast from Monday night to Friday, with temperatures trending to 15 to 20 degrees above normal for Christmas Day and Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 651 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025

No major changes made to the grids aside for loading in the latest surface obs and touching up a few of the aviation grids ahead of the 00Z TAF issuance. Evening text and radio products have been updated to reflect the changes. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 420 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2025

Confidence remains high that next week's sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky will be unseasonably mild. The forecast guidance suite collectively resolves a dominant midlevel ridge over the south- central CONUS from Monday to Friday, with deep troughing over the West Coast. These synoptics yield a regime of midlevel height rises and progressive west-northwesterly flow over the commonwealth. At the surface, this translates to high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states. The forecast area will be situated to the northwest of this anticyclone, allowing low-level flow to hold a southerly directional component for much of the period. Altogether, this set- up points towards a warming trend for the Holidays. Periodic precipitation chances and plenty of cloud coverage are expected as a frontal boundary stalls out in the vicinity of the forecast area, but the warmer-than-usual airmass in place will keep all precipitation in liquid form. Thus, any dreams about a White Christmas this year are expected to remain just that -- dreams.

When the period opens on Monday morning, Sunday's post-frontal surface high will be propagating southeast towards the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The lingering influence of this high will keep conditions dry for one more day, but surface winds are forecast to veer to the south during the day. This kickstarts the week's warming trend; widespread afternoon highs in the 50s are expected under partly cloudy skies. In response to a passing northern stream disturbance, winds will veer further to the southwest and intensify on Monday night. Models depict a strong LLJ (40-50 knots at 850mb) nosing into the forecast area around this time, resulting in increasing WAA and moisture advection into the region. Cloud cover and rain chances will spread across the forecast area from west to east overnight. There is a chance that some of the more sheltered valleys of far-eastern KY will decouple immediately after sunset, especially if the cloud cover lags west for longer. Some of the MOS guidance has been more aggressive with the lows in these locales, but the strength of the WAA signal precludes manual editing of MinTs below the upper 30s in this places. Western portions of the forecast area and ridgetops will likely see lows in the 40s, but the WAA regime should yield temperatures in the mid to upper 40s by the time the sun rises on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned disturbance is poised to approach the forecast area. This will keep rain chances and mild temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 50s) in the forecast for the daytime hours. The amplification of ridging over the southern states means that this front will likely become diffuse upon approach, and PoPs will linger for longer in southern portions of the forecast area. Northern portions of the forecast area could experience post-frontal drying/cooling overnight (lows in the upper 30s north of I-64 overnight, but cloud cover will provide enough insulation to keep lows in the mid 40s for most of the forecast area.

With the previous day's front still in the vicinity of the forecast area, light rain cannot be ruled out on Christmas Eve. The weakened nature of the boundary and the presence of drier air in the column should limit the amount of precipitation that reaches the ground, and the synoptic set-up favors another day of warmer-than-normal temperatures. Expect highs in the upper 50s/near 60 before strengthening SW flow overnight results in even warmer temperatures on Christmas Day. Another passing shortwave disturbance could yield renewed rain chances as it nudges the boundary back north as a warm front, but Eastern Kentucky will be positioned in a drier and warmer sector for much of the daytime hours on Christmas Day. This will allow MaxTs to creep up into the upper 60s and potentially even flirt with 70 degrees in the typically warmer river valleys.

The end of the period is marked with the approach of a better- defined trough aloft, and this should drag a much stronger cold front through the region on Friday. Given the antecedent warmth in place, this feature will need to be monitored for thunderstorm potential. The CAPE signal is only marginal at this moment in time, and the orientation of the parent trough does not currently favor sufficient shear for severe weather. Thunder probabilities remain below mentionable values in this forecast package, but an upward trend has been observed in the latest runs of the NBM. For now, Friday's forecast calls for highs in the 60s and plain rain chances, before a drier and cooler post-frontal airmass moves in for Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 655 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites at this issuance. A dry cold front is sagging southeast toward the area and ahead of that front LLWS exists across all TAF sites. Once the front arrives, LLWS will diminish. Lowered CIGS are anticipated with frontal arrival but guidance and upstream obs show CIGS are remaining VFR through frontal passage. Once the front crosses through the area, winds will slacken to light and variable and skies will start to clear.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.