textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front moves across the area and brings gusty winds through this afternoon.

- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

- There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for Monday and beyond. Some wintry precipitation is possible during the Monday night to Tuesday timeframe.

UPDATE

Issued at 1020 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025

14Z sfc analysis shows a sharp, but mainly dry, cold front working east through eastern Kentucky late this morning. This front is bringing a strong switch in the winds to the west northwest and gusts up to 35 mph as it passes, along with falling temperatures in its wake. Currently, temperatures vary from the mid 50s in the far southeast, well ahead of the boundary, to the low 40s behind it - in the northwest. Meanwhile, dewpoints range from the mid and upper 30s northwest in the air mass behind the front to the mid and upper 40s well out ahead of it. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune the PoPs per the current radar returns and near term CAMs consensus. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 423 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025

The long-term forecast period will commence with surface high pressure dominating the weather pattern from Friday morning through late Saturday night. Temperatures are forecast to begin near the mid 30s on Friday, then climb into the low to upper 40s range on Saturday. However, the surface ridge axis will progress eastward throughout Saturday, being replaced by an approaching surface low pressure system.

Beginning Saturday morning, the upper-level trough is projected to shift from the Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, a low pressure center will develop and eject from the lee of the Rockies into the Plains, arriving in the Great Lakes region by Sunday morning. Locally, an increase in the PoP is expected beginning Saturday night and continuing through the overnight hours. A rain- snow mixture is possible where surface temperatures are sufficiently cold to support frozen precipitation, but as temperatures warm, a transition back to all rain is anticipated to occur and persist through Sunday into Monday.

A low degree of confidence characterizes the forecast for the end of the extended period. Current model guidance indicates the passage of multiple shortwave disturbances across the area, creating the potential for a wintry mix extending into next week. Minor variations in the track of these disturbances could significantly alter the primary precipitation type. The current forecast package anticipates a transient rain-snow mix each morning before temperatures rise above the freezing mark.

The overall extended forecast pattern will start with stabilizing surface high pressure before transitioning to a more active weather regime from the end of the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will begin cold but are forecast to quickly moderate for Saturday. Temperatures will then be subject to greater variability from Sunday through the end of the period, generally supporting a wintry mix at times from Sunday onward through the forecast window.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 637 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025

MVFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites a low CIGS ahead of strong cold front exist. Sustained west-northwesterly winds around 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots will be likely throughout the day today and will persist through much of the TAF period before diminishing slightly after 08Z/Thursday. MVFR conditions will improve to VFR in the next couple of hours but CIGS are forecast to fall again to low-end VFR as low CIGS associated with the front move through the area. Can't rule out CIGS dipping into MVFR through frontal passage. Those CIGS will remain low through 00Z/Thursday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.