textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist through the end of the work week.

- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new week.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 614 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026

At the start of the long term period, 500 mb ridging will be centered over the southeastern US, with a deep closed low over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will initially be located over far western Texas, translating northeastward with time. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure will be located near the Oklahoma/New Mexico border, with a surface high just southeast of eastern Kentucky. As the initial shortwave translates northeast, this low will lift northeastward as well, dragging a frontal boundary northward with it. In eastern Kentucky, a preexisting boundary will dissipate with time, being displaced from upper level support and any low pressure center; thus, expect dry weather to continue through the end of the workweek under the influence of the midlevel ridge, with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s, above average for this time of year. Overnight, cloud cover associated with the approaching shortwave will build, keeping lows warm in the upper 40s and low 50s. Cloud cover should linger through the day on Friday, suppressing temperatures. Highs will "only" rise into the low to mid 70s.

Although the weather has been dry, Saturday night will bring the first mentionable PoPs in over two weeks. A second shortwave will approach the area, although there are still notable differences in timing and impacts among deterministic guidance. The ECMWF favors dry weather through the weekend, although this seems to be an outlier solution at this time, with LREF probabilities for measurable precipitation this weekend generally in the 50-60% range for our southwestern counties, with these chances decreasing closer to the West Virginia border. Regardless, atmospheric moisture will be anomalously high at this time, with LREF mean PW values in the 0.8-1.0 inch range across the forecast area on Sunday morning, roughly in the 75th percentile or higher compared to climatology for this time of year. With these ingredients in place, those looking to enjoy festivities on Halloween night are encouraged to monitor future forecast changes as the timing and impact of this shortwave become clearer.

More substantial rain chances will arrive next week as the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance drift northeast, interacting with the upper level low initially located over the Pacific Northwest, although this far out, details are still fuzzy due to increasing model spread. At the surface, a well defined area of low pressure should also push eastward toward the forecast area. Rain chances will increase in the vicinity of this low's associated warm front, expected to lift north through eastern Kentucky. This system will interact with the preexisting moist air mass, increasing confidence in rainfall; however, with poor model consistency at this stage, only scattered PoPs are in place early next week, more a function of low confidence in the evolution of this complicated pattern than a low chance for rain.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026

VFR conditions prevailed for all terminals at the 12Z TAF issuance. Any patchy valley fog will dissipate by ~13 to 14Z, leaving behind a high cloud ceiling. That VFR ceiling will slowly clear from west to east between 16 and 22Z. More widespread river valley fog is likely to form late tonight but confidence in flight category impacts was too low to mention at any terminals. Otherwise, light winds will prevail areawide.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.