textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A more active weather pattern is now upon us, with multiple chances for widespread showers and storms through Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and through tonight - as well as on Wednesday. These will bring some more highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once the frontal boundary finally clears the area late this week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored along with a chance for frost over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 746 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The forecast was updated with the latest observational data. Also updated the weather grids to introduce verbiage for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176 in the Southwest counties. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 406 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The long term period will be generally characterized by persistent upper level troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Further south, ridging will gradually break down over the south central US into Mexico as a potent upper level low moves into the southwestern US this weekend. For eastern Kentucky, this synoptic pattern indicates high confidence in below average temperatures through at least Saturday. Precipitation associated with Wednesdays cold front will exit our area by Thursday afternoon, giving way to clearing skies in the afternoon; however, given northwesterly postfrontal winds, highs will still remain ~10 degrees below normal. Overnight, temperatures may approach the upper 30s in the northernmost part of the forecast area; however, the wild card in this forecast is overnight cloud cover, particularly as a secondary cold front will sag south into Kentucky on Friday. Thus, cloud cover will likely be too thick to allow for full decoupling, keeping lows in the low to mid 40s across most of the forecast area.

On Friday, a broad surface low initially located over the Central Mississippi Valley will translate generally east across the southeastern US. The exact track of this low remains uncertain, but there is broad model agreement that this will allow for a weak cold front to drop into our area, bringing a slight chance for showers. Any precipitation that does fall is expected to be light, and the exact timing of this remains uncertain at this time; therefore, confidence is low enough that I have opted to keep NBM PoPs for now. Regardless of precipitation, the primary impact of this secondary front will be another reinforcing shot of cold air, which will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s and low 40s overnight. Given lingering moisture, cloud cover could prevent our valleys from getting too cold; however, in the event of a quicker frontal passage or weaker front, drier conditions could set in. In this scenario, skies could clear out overnight, which would allow for cooler low temperatures and therefore increase the risk for patchy frost in sheltered valleys. Thus, these cloud cover trends bear monitoring, and agricultural interests are advised to remain aware of forecast changes.

Saturday will be our coolest day of the forecast period. With the secondary cold front through our area, northwesterly flow will dominate, keeping high temperatures below average in eastern Kentucky yet again. Over the course of the day, building high pressure will also allow for skies to clear out gradually throughout the day. These clear skies and light winds will allow overnight temperatures to plummet in our valleys, with 12Z MOS guidance even showing subfreezing lows for some sheltered areas. Given these conditions, frost formation will be most likely on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will continue to dominate through Sunday until the next system will approach our area around the start of next week, although details remain unclear at this time. Regardless, below average temperatures will remain favored through at least the first week of May per CPC outlooks.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites this evening. Shower and storm chances will increase; especially after 03Z and will diminish at most TAF sites around 12Z. Any sites that are VFR at the onset of the showers and storms will fall into categorical MVFR to IFR and will gradually improve into MVFR and VFR beyond 18Z Wednesday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.