textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and a few storms can be expected tonight into Thursday morning, bringing beneficial rainfall to the area.

- Cooler, below normal, temperatures settle in Thursday through Friday. Temperatures Thursday night drop into the mid to upper 30s in valleys, bringing the potential for fog and localized patchy frost.

- Periodic chances for showers return for the upcoming weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a wavy cold front just northwest of the JKL CWA this evening. A large area of mainly showers is a associated with this boundary and is starting to brush into northwest parts of the area. Expect this to encroach more and overtake eastern Kentucky through the night with some thunder chances, as well. In the meantime, currently, temperatures are running in the lower 60s northwest with that rain to the low 70s in the southeast. Meanwhile, amid southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints vary from the low 50s west to the mid 40s east. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as to fine tune the PoPs and thunder chances through the night per radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 254 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

There is reasonable agreement in the guidance to begin the long term period. An upper low near Hudson Bay will be the primary weather feature affecting the eastern US. This more amplified pattern will keep our temperatures closer to normal for this time of year and lead to several chances of rain through the long term period.

Thursday we will see high pressure at the surface creeping in from the Central US. Meanwhile, an embedded mid-level shortwave will progress across the Ohio Valley. This will keep a few rain showers in the forecast to start the day before rain chances dwindle through the remainder of the day. Then the previously mentioned high pressure will settle into the Ohio Valley allowing for clearing skies going into Thursday night. This could lead to some frost or fog by Friday morning. The frost should be limited to the deeper more shelter valleys in most cases.

Next embedded shortwave and cold front will push into the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday. This will bring in our next chances of rain, but right now confidence is on the lower side with chances of rain generally topping out generally in the 15 to 30 percent range. The best chances of rain will be generally north of the Mountain Parkway. This as the front weakens as it pushes across the Ohio Valley combined with lack of better moisture return. The drier weather Saturday night will be short lived, as a stronger cold front progresses toward the Ohio Valley Sunday. This combined with stronger upper level support will aid in better chances of rain peaking in the 60-70 percent chance range Sunday night. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period with highs expected to top out in the mid to upper 70s in warm air advection pattern ahead of the cold front and even some 80s showing up in areas south of what looks like a weaker warm front. The NBM is suggesting that there is around a 50 percent chance of seeing greater than a half an inch of rainfall in the 48-hour period ending at 8 AM Tuesday. These lower probabilities could be attributed to the lower available moisture. Then there is decent agreement on drier weather for most settling across the area once again on Monday night into Tuesday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

Mid level clouds cover the area now, ahead of an approaching cold front off to the west. VFR conditions are still holding with this but expected to deteriorate this evening from west to east with lowering ceiling heights, as well as increased shower chances. This will likely drop TAF sites into primarily MVFR conditions overnight. Closer to 12Z, CIGS will probably fall to IFR and periodically LIFR before improving after 15Z Wednesday. Winds will be generally south at 5 to 10 kts this evening but LLWS will develop tonight from the southwest at up to 45 kts. Sfc winds will eventually shift to a more northwesterly direction as the front starts to move through around mid-morning Wednesday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.