textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Lower humidity and dry weather continues through Wednesday.

- Fog is expected to develop tonight and should become dense in the valleys. The Wednesday morning commute may be affected.

- Unsettled weather then returns to end the week and into the weekend, with rounds of showers and storms possibly producing heavy rain and a flood threat.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026

A few clouds linger in northerly flow, but these have generally scattered out over the past few hours. Drier air has filtered into the region as high pressure builds in. Dewpoints ranged through the 50s with many locations reporting the lower 50s. With the high building and few if any low and mid level cloud cover and winds becoming light, the stage will be set for fog development, especially in the valleys following the recent rain event. This fog may lift into other locations as well, though most of the dense fog should be in the valleys. Some dense fog for river valleys was added for this update.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 311 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026

There is reasonable agreement with the overall pattern across the Ohio Valley for much of the long term. The period will begin with upper high off toward the southeast near Bermuda. We will start to see ridge riding shortwave troughs moving through the more locally zonal flow aloft starting later Thursday. Most of the day looks dry for most, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The first upper level wave will pass across Kentucky Thursday night and this will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms into the 20-60 percent range, with chances getting higher from south to north. This as ample moisture starts to pump northward, with PWATs climbing toward the 90th percentile for this time of year.

This more active pattern is then set to roll on with nearby surface boundary becoming more stationary along the Ohio River and additional waves passing through the Lower Ohio Valley. The next shortwave is set to arrive by Friday and this is set to bring one of the higher chances of rain, with values across the CWA generally in the 60-90 percent chance range. The highest values will be in the Bluegrass region and lessening as you move toward the Tennessee and Virginia borders. The question as we move through the period will be how much rain and where it will fall. The ECMWF is showing some signals for heavier rain potential in the EFI SOT, which could be a indicator for the potential for flooding. However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty still with how much and where as mentioned before, but WPC does have the area in a marginal excessive rainfall outlook for Friday into Saturday morning for the threat. These series of shortwaves could also be an indication of more of a MCS pattern and this will have to be watched closely for stronger convection developing depending on instability and timing of various rounds of convection.

Once we get toward early next week we will see upper level ridging start to swing poleward from west to east. There is some uncertainty with how far chances of rain will extend into the week. There is at least some indication we will see better moisture return start to reduce, as the flow become northerly with time. Given the rising heights and dryer airmass a return of much warmer weather is expected, with highs expected to climb back into the lower 90s by Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026

High pressure will build across the region through the period. Clouds have been scattering out and only a limited amount of low and mid clouds are anticipated overnight. Winds will also slacken, setting the stage for widespread fog formation after about 04Z. The greatest visibility reductions from this fog will occur in valley locales. This fog may lift into or develop elsewhere by about 08Z onward. Eventual reductions to MVFR and IFR are anticipated at all the TAF sites and LAMP guidance suggests reductions to airport mins or below prior to 12Z at KJKL, KLOZ, KSYM, and KSJS. For this cycle, opted not to go that low, but have generally trended vis down approximately a category for but all KIOB between about 08Z and 12Z. KIOB is expected to be least affected by fog. Fog should lift and dissipate, possibly lifting into a cumulus field in the 12Z to 14Z timeframe, with all locations returning to VFR at that point. Winds will become light and variable tonight and remain light and variable under high pressure through the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.