textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mainly clear skies, mild days, and chilly nights will persist into early next week.

- Light, patchy frost may develop early this morning and again late tonight in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

UPDATE

Issued at 530 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 552 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Ridging remains the dominant weather feature for the majority of the long term forecast period, leading to seasonably tranquil sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky for the foreseeable future. The forecast guidance suite is in remarkably good agreement through early next week; it collectively resolves an amplified mid/upper level ridge stretching up the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. The JKL CWA will be situated to the east of the ridge axis through Monday, which translates to persistent north-northwesterly winds aloft. These winds will work to reinforce the dry, continental airmass currently in place over the area, as will the synoptic subsidence downstream of the ridge axis apex. At the surface, the corresponding (and rather broad) high pressure system will remain centered to the northeast of the forecast area. The continued influence of that anticyclone will keep low level winds light and variable and further limit the potential for meaningful airmass modification. Thus, even as this ridging pattern begins to break down early next week, the antecedent dryness should prevent meaningful precipitation chances from materializing.

Given all of the above, expect efficient diurnal processes to dominate the daily forecast. Mostly clear skies will favor plentiful solar insolation during the daytime hours, with temperatures warming towards highs in the upper half of the 60s/low 70s each day. Efficient mixing should yield 20-30 degree dewpoint depressions each afternoon/evening, but the light nature of the winds should help mitigate any fire weather concerns. As the sun goes down each evening, valley locales will begin to thermally decouple. Temperatures should quickly drop off in the area's shaded hollows, with lows likely bottoming out in the mid 30s within the area's more sheltered valleys. Patchy frost cannot be ruled out in these conventionally cooler spots, but overnight fog formation is favored over frost in the area's broader valleys. The area's rivers, lakes, creeks, and streams will provide just enough extra moisture and radiative insulation to keep low temperatures closer to the 40 degree mark in the area's more populated broader valleys. These highs and lows are near climatological averages for late October in Eastern Kentucky.

As hinted at in the opening paragraph, this ridging pattern is progged to break down in the initial stages of the next work week. The previously-pronounced ridge axis will retreat to the south of the CWA amidst midlevel height falls on Monday, leading to less subsidence in the column. As the ridge flattens further on Tuesday, the flow aloft will shift towards a west-southwesterly orientation. These changes will yield relatively greater amounts of midlevel moisture in the column by midweek, and cloud cover should gradually increase from Monday night into Tuesday. Model spread begins to increase by Wednesday, largely due to differences in the evolution of a series of troughs digging into the Upper Midwest around midweek. If any of those disturbances digs deep enough to yield more vertically continuous southwesterly flow into our CWA, the area could see its next round of rain chances. Mentionable PoPs should hold off until beyond the end of the official forecast period though. LREF ensemble data resolves a less than 10% chance for measurable (> 0.01 inches) rainfall through next Wednesday, but neighborhood-based ensemble precipitation probabilities increase to 30% on Thursday. This will give us something to monitor in future forecast packages, but in the mean time, the forecast looks fantastic for outdoor fall activities. Seasonably cool temperatures, light winds, and fair skies will allow fall foliage to reach peak color in the coming weeks. This will lead to beautiful scenery across Eastern Kentucky, so we encourage readers to get outside and enjoy these quintessential autumnal weather conditions!

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 545 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026

Fog is likely bringing IFR or worse conditions in many river valley locations early this morning (and again late tonight), but it is not expected to affect any TAF sites more than a brief amount of time like SME saw earlier. Otherwise, VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds will prevail through the aviation period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.