textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures persist through Sunday.

- Near-record heat is possible on Thursday, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s expected in most locations.

- Isolated showers and storms re-enter the forecast tomorrow, then expand to the rest of the CWA by Friday. Most of this activity will be limited to the afternoon/evening hours.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 228 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026

High pressure and associated ridge axis aloft over eastern Kentucky will retrograde and weaken with time, allowing for increasingly faster west-northwesterly flow aloft through the Ohio Valley as the long-term period progresses through the weekend.

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday as strong mid- level heights exceeding 597 dm gradually decrease, though low chances for showers and thunderstorms are warranted across parts of mainly central and northeastern Kentucky and perhaps extending south to near the Cumberland Mountains in the afternoon. Highs are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area, with max heat indices in the vicinity of 100 degrees.

A passing disturbance to the north and associated jet streak will push a cold front far enough south Friday to bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances across the area along with a brief modest cooldown in the northern half of the forecast area, but highs will still reach the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Warm advection quickly returns for Saturday, with low PoPs and a return to highs back into the upper 80s to lower 90s, which looks to extend through Sunday before a potential cooldown as an upper trough and associated cold front move into the area and increase rain chances. While models show broad 40-50 PoPs Monday into Monday night with relatively good agreement in a system moving from the central CONUS to the Great Lakes region, model ensemble systems show significant disagreements on the strength, track, and timing of the parent trough. Resolving these differences will likely play a key role in whether those PoPs trend upwards or downwards as this period nears.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites throughout the 18z issuance period. Diurnal cumulus development has been observed in this afternoon's satellite imagery, mostly across Southern Kentucky. This cu field is not particularly robust due to the presence of strong midlevel ridging and dry air throughout the atmospheric column, but it has been included in the TAFs for KLOZ and KSME. These two terminals are in closer proximity to the existing and expanding cu field. Light and variable winds are forecast at all terminals this afternoon. Isolated gusts up to 15 knots cannot be ruled out in locales that experience deeper diurnal mixing. Once the sun goes down and the diurnal cu/mixing processes subside, fog will eventually develop in the typical river valley locales. That fog is not currently forecast to impact any TAF sites though, and the terminals should remain above P6SM VFR vsby criteria through tomorrow morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.