textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Much colder air arrives this weekend and lingers into early next week.

- Light snow may occur in some locations by Sunday and possibly into Monday, but any accumulations look to be minor.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

With the front and its thunderstorms departing the area have updated the grids to take out the PoPs and early morning thunder. Did also update them with the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 450 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

The extended forecast hasn't changed much from the previous issuance. A trend towards colder weather lasts through Monday before a broader ridging pattern brings warming conditions Tuesday onward. The previous forecast discussion can be found below...

Progressive and amplified flow looks to remain in place through the majority of the long term period over the CONUS. A northern and central Plains trough will deepen as it moves southeast this weekend, while ridging sharpens up over the Continental Divide and slides east, broadening with time. At the surface, cyclogenesis will take place along a lingering baroclinic zone aligned from the Carolinas through the Deep South Saturday night into Sunday. This low will deepen more rapidly once it reaches the Mid-Atlantic coast, with models still differing quite a bit on the details of the track and intensity of this feature as we begin the new work week. The upstream broader ridging will shift east after Monday, with recovering 500 mb heights seen across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Additional northern stream energy will then move in across the north central CONUS for middle of the week, sending a surface cold front southeast across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday.

Sensible weather will feature a slight chance of rain Saturday morning, as we remain on the northern fringe of the moisture just to our south. Highs will still average above normal in the 50s. Better precipitation chances will occur Saturday night, as the deeper upper level trough approaches from the northwest. Consequently, stronger cold air advection will also ensue, with a return of more wintertime temperatures and a changeover to light snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lows will be in the low 30s, with highs on Sunday only a few to several degrees higher. Snow shower activity will continue across mainly locations east of I-75 through late Monday, gradually becoming more confined to our southeastern terrain, as the trough over the East only slowly pulls away. High pressure will build in Monday night, with lows back into the teens to lower 20s, depending on how quickly the low level cloud cover diminishes. Temperatures will then rebound Tuesday through Thursday, with highs starting out in the low to mid 40s for Tuesday, and then warming to the low to mid 50s by Thursday. Dry weather can be expected from Monday night through Wednesday morning, before rain chances increase once again as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 645 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

In the wake of the cold frontal passage the precip has come to an end along with most of the low clouds. We are also seeing an increase in winds out of the WSW this morning with some early LLWS from the west at up to 40 kts. The winds will gust to between 20 and 30 kts during the day, but diminish in the evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.