textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm chances arrives to start this weekend, followed by a pattern shift that favors much above normal temperatures for the Sunday into early next week.

- A Marginal Risk for severe storms exists for Saturday afternoon into the evening, mainly for isolated damaging wind potential with any stronger storms.

UPDATE

Issued at 554 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026

Adjusted temperatures lower in several locations for the next couple of hours based on latest observations, but otherwise the forecast is on track with little in way of major adjustments

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026

The long-term forecast period is highlighted by a pattern shift and a noticeable warming trend. As a southeastern CONUS ridge axis nudges into the forecast area late this weekend and into early next week, increasing geopotential heights and subsidence point towards a period of warmer and drier weather. Record high temperatures could be in jeopardy by Monday.

Saturday night, shortwave energy will become shunted well north of the Ohio River, with eastern Kentucky planted in the warm sector. PoPs will be diminishing in the evening, with more sustained clouds scattering out with time. While it is true that the synoptic weather pattern favors a potent warming trend, the air mass in place across the forecast area late this weekend and early next week does not look particularly humid. Efficient diurnal mixing should lead to 25 to 35 degree dewpoint depressions, which will work to mitigate the HeatRisk values across the area. The baseline deterministic NBM MaxT guidance remains on the upper bound of the forecast envelope early next week, so highs were once again lowered in collaboration with neighboring WFOs. Temperatures should still climb into the upper 80s on Sunday and then towards the lower half of the 90s on Monday, but apparent temperatures should be fairly close to the actual thermometer readings. Those readings will be close to the record high values for May 17th and May 18th at the KJKL and KLOZ climate sites, and they are 10-15 degrees above climatological averages for mid-May in Eastern Kentucky. While it will be noticeably warmer outside, it will not be near Heat Advisory criteria. Coincidentally though, this early-season heat aligns with the 2026 National Integrated Heat Health Information System's Heat Safety Week campaign. Interests are accordingly encouraged to monitor our office's social media channels to learn more about local heat headline criteria, heat-related impacts, and heat safety/mitigation tips from Monday to Friday next week.

The early week heat is not forecast to persist through the end of the forecast period. While model spread increases towards the middle of next week, the consensus is for deeper troughing to emerge in the Great Plains by Tuesday. This will eventually drag a surface cold front towards the commonwealth, but the antecedent ridging will be slow to wane. Increasingly deep southwesterly flow around its western periphery should result in a fetch off the Gulf and more moisture in the column by midweek. This yields increasing cloud cover and the return of low-end precipitation chances on Tuesday, which introduces cascading uncertainty into Tuesday's temperature forecast. If skies stay sunnier and the chance PoPs don't come to fruition, Tuesday's temperatures could rival Monday's. Confidence in precipitation coverage is higher on Wednesday, which should mark the beginning of a cooling trend. However, the late-week sensible weather forecast depends on the evolution of the approaching cold frontal system. If the boundary stalls out amidst quasi-zonal flow aloft, we could see a wet end to the work week. If a more progressive pattern takes root, temperatures could cool back to climatological norms. Either way, interested parties are encouraged to stay tuned to future forecast updates.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026

Mostly clear skies with just passing high clouds can be expected through the period outside of any nighttime/morning valley fog. Winds will remain under 10 kts through the TAF period, with wind speeds light and variable or south to southwesterly.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.