textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A very large and deep storm system centered well to our northeast will bring rain and high elevation snow to most of the area at times into tonight.

- High pressure slowly approaches and moves over the region over the next several days, bringing a return of dry weather during the weekend and lasting through the upcoming workweek.

- A warming trend will begin on Saturday, with high temperatures gradually climbing each day through the upcoming workweek.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 227 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2026

At the start of the long term period, 500 mb troughing will be centered over New England, with ridging over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cutoff low will be progressing through the Southern Plains, with additional broader troughing centered over the Pacific Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be located over the Midwest, with no other notable features near eastern Kentucky. This area of high pressure will be the dominant player in the long term forecast, maintaining tranquil and uneventful weather through the entire long term period.

Initially, some cloud cover will linger on Sunday as winds remain northwesterly and just enough low level moisture will support upslope clouds, particularly in southeastern Kentucky. This pattern will keep high temperatures cool on Sunday, likely in the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. As ridging builds east, however, the region of surface high pressure will progress eastward as well, marking a shift in surface winds from northwesterly to northeasterly late Sunday into early Monday. Any cloud cover should dissipate, and a weak pressure gradient associated with this high should allow for ideal radiative cooling conditions on Sunday night and support the development of a ridge/valley split. Valley temperatures could plummet into the mid 20s, while ridges will likely stay warmer in the 30s. However, if cloud cover lingers longer than expected, lows could end up being warmer than forecast in these locations.

By Monday, clear skies will set in, and as upper level ridging continues to build into our area, attendant high pressure at the surface should limit cloud cover through Wednesday. Even as the aforementioned cutoff low progresses east, this system will begin to dissipate along the Gulf Coast by Tuesday before being absorbed into broader troughing along the Atlantic Coast, with no impact to the forecast area. Instead, midlevel heights should rise through Wednesday, and by midweek, LREF mean 500 mb heights look to be anomalously high, roughly the 95th percentile compared to climatology. At the surface, this will allow temperatures to warm each day, and by midweek the surface high will be east of the area with winds becoming more southwesterly, advecting warmer and more moist air into eastern Kentucky. Model spread does increase somewhat by Thursday as the main ridge axis shifts east of the forecast area; however, confidence in above average temperatures remains high, with ensemble guidance suggesting high temperatures are likely to remain in at least the mid 60s, even as increased moisture could allow a few clouds to return to the forecast. Lows should also follow this warming trend. Although mostly clear skies overnight will allow valleys to decouple, setting the stage for ridge/valley splits each night, higher dewpoints will keep overnight lows noticeably milder for all locations by the end of the forecast period. Even so, no precipitation is expected through Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 129 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2026

Conditions at the start of the period ranged from IFR to VFR, but MVFR was the most prominent. The worst conditions were generally in the Cumberland drainage basin. Light rain was occurring in many places, with a transition to snow at elevations above about 2500 ft MSL.

Precipitation should peak in coverage late this afternoon and early this evening, with conditions becoming largely MVFR and locally IFR in the precipitation. Precipitation will diminish from northwest to southeast tonight, but predominantly MVFR conditions (and some IFR in southeast KY) will persist beyond the end of the precip. As clouds later lift and start to break up, eventual improvement to VFR is forecast from northwest to southeast during the night and early on Saturday for all but far southeast KY.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.