textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow showers are expected across much of Eastern Kentucky on Sunday and Monday, especially east of I-75.

- Some of the stronger snow showers may produce locally higher accumulation rates, wind gusts up to 30 mph, and sudden visibility reductions reminiscent of a snow squall. - Much colder air arrives tomorrow and lingers through Monday night, but a mid-week warming trend is expected.

UPDATE

Issued at 1040 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

As a shortwave trough passes across the region and an area of low pressure and an are of low pressure continues to develop southeast of the crest of the Appalachians over the Carolinas to the Atlantic coast, colder air continues to advect into the region. This and wetbulbing from falling precipitation has brought temperatures above 2500 feet into the lower 30s. Some snow has been noted to have been falling recently on the KY Mesonet station cameras at the Harlan County (Black Mountain are) site near 4000 feet elevation and the Pike County (Flatwoods area) site near 2770 feet. Elsewhere to the northwest rain showers have been occurring with measurable rain of 0.01 or a few hundredths having fallen in some locations. This shortwave will gradually move east of eastern KY by the predawn hours and a lull in chances for showers is expected for much of the overnight. However, cold air advection will continue and 850 mb temperatures should drop to an average of about -8C across the CWA with the coldest values near and north of I-64 by dawn as an upper level low moves across IN and into OH and toward WV/the middle OH Valley through Sunday.

A few flurries cannot be completely ruled out late tonight or early on Sunday morning, but not long after sunrise, moisture will increase from northwest to southeast through midday Sunday and Sunday afternoon. Solar insolation and continue cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and the low level flow will keep an upslope northwest component and omega will be present within the DGZ. This will result in an uptick in snow shower coverage toward midday on Sunday with the intensity and coverage likely to peak during the afternoon, especially across the north and east. Another round of activity is expected Sunday night into early Monday.

At this point, the 00Z HREF PMM snow accumulations through 00Z Monday (7 PM EST Sunday) having generally trended down to the northwest of the current advisory compared to the 12Z HREF from the 21st. Some of the high resolution models such as 00Z HRRR has trended down in those areas as well as have he last couple GFS runs including the arriving 00Z also having trended down a bit with snowfall to the northwest. Therefore, the current footprint of the Winter Weather Advisory will be maintained at this time. The SPS will be re-issued for locations further to the north and west. Trends will be monitored and additional counties may need to be added to the advisory later if confidence increases.

UPDATE Issued at 725 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026

So far this evening, the more eastern radar returns nearer to the US 23 corridor and the WV border have largely been only virga due to a try sub cloud layer. Meanwhile rain has been reaching the ground further to the west including during the past few minutes at JKL and in the southwest as well. So far just trace amounts have been noted within the CWA as the boundary layer rh continues to increase. Some measurable rain has fallen in parts of central KY. This activity was occurring ahead of a shortwave trough approaches from the west and temps aloft and lapse rates have increased. The max 2 to 6 km AGL layer lapse rate currently analyzed over the region is generally around 6.5C/km. Also the dry subcloud layer is leading to some gustiness as the showers arrive.

Adjustments were made to hourly grids based on radar as well as observation trends.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 438 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026

Monday evening, isolated snow showers and some flurries may linger across the upslope areas of Letcher and Pike counties, under light northwest flow. As a trough axis exits the area overnight Monday and skies clear, temperatures will be at their coldest Tuesday morning, ranging from the teens to low 20s.

Ridging builds back in Tuesday, leading to temperatures warming into the low to mid 40s. An upper level low will traverse the Great Lakes and surrounding Ohio Valley Tuesday evening, north of a 50-60 kt low level jet over Kentucky. Winds may gust as high as 20-25 mph overnight. Cloudy conditions will help insulate temperatures leading to low temperatures 10-20 degrees warmer than the previous night, in the mid to upper 30s.

Wednesday, the area will remain under southwest flow ahead of the next approaching system. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50f for most. Winds may gust to 20-25 mph through the afternoon. A positively tilted upper level trough will move out of the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Another low level jet begins to ramp up Wednesday evening and peaks in intensity Thursday morning as the systems cold front is expected to push through the area. Prolonged strong southwest flow will allow for Gulf moisture to advect north into Eastern Kentucky. PWAT ranges from 0.90 to 1.20 inches. The evolution of this system should be closely monitored as efficient rainfall from Wednesday night through Thursday could lead to excessive rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has placed the area under a Day 5 Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall capable of exceeding flash flood guidance.

With abundant cloud cover and strong southwesterly winds (WAA), temperatures Wednesday night will dip into the low to mid 40s. Thursday, temperatures warm into the low to upper 50s. Somewhat zonal flow remains behind the system, through Friday. Temperatures warm into the 50s across the area. At night, clearing skies and light winds will help drop temperatures into the low to mid 30s.

Next weekend, the model and ensemble spread widens, however another round of active weather could occur Saturday evening onward. Temperatures for Saturday appear to be the warmest of the long-term, ranging from the low to mid 60s under mostly sunny skies.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 130 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026

VFR and MVFR conditions were observed at 06Z issuance time but expect these to deteriorate through the night as lower levels saturate - especially across the eastern half of the area. Development of MVFR across the eastern half of the area is ongoing with some IFR possible in the higher terrain near the VA border. Further west, VFR should persist. Colder air moving into the region will result in the rain showers mixing with snow, increasingly. Between 09 and 15Z, MVFR should linger and/or develop from northwest to southeast. A passing upper low will combine with daytime heating to result in an increase in snow shower activity between 12 and 18Z, especially east of I-75. This activity will bring visibilities and/or ceilings down into the MVFR range and IFR, or even lower, at least briefly with the heaviest showers. Also, during the 12 to 18Z timeframe, west to northwest winds will pick up into the 7 to 15 kt range, with gusts up to 25 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Monday for KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.