textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief warm-up will last through Tuesday, with colder temperatures then returning and lasting through early next week.

- Rain is expected on Wednesday with the transition back to colder weather. Remaining precipitation changes to snow for most places Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Any snow tapers off Wednesday night and Thursday. Light snow accumulations are expected during the Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning timeframe, especially in southeast Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 615 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026

Some of the mainly eastern valley locations were cooling off a bit more quickly than the previous forecast. Afternoon mixed dewpoints areawide were generally in the teens to around 20. With this update, have made some adjustments downward to hourly temperatures for the next several hours for these valley locations. Corresponding downward adjustments were also made to min T for those locations.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 405 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026

Transitional weather will occur at the start of the period, with a deep upper level trough developing over the eastern CONUS. The associated cold front will pass southeast through KY during the day Wednesday, with upper level support from the trough and associated jet resulting in rain. A transition to snow should also occur as colder air arrives behind the front. Models have not come into strong agreement yet on timing of deep moisture departure and arrival of colder air, but have generally trended toward lighter snow accumulations for most places. A transition from stratiform precip to snow showers should occur as drier air arrives aloft and low level lapse rates steepen in the arriving colder air mass with upslope flow. The best shot at accumulating snow is in southeast KY on Wednesday evening. A brief enhancement from connection to flow over Lake Michigan can't be ruled out, but details on this are likely to change yet. Low level moisture eventually gets eroded and dry weather should return even in southeast KY by Thursday evening.

The upper trough will remain over the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the long term period, keeping our temperatures cold. Impulses/vorticity maxes will rotate through the trough along with reinforcements of colder air and be the main factor in our day to day weather. However, models show less agreement (more uncertainty) in how this plays out the further out in time that you look. There could be some light precip at times (most likely snow), but confidence in timing is not very high.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 700 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026

VFR conditions were observed throughout the area at the 00Z TAF issuance with winds generally light and variable or between south and west at less than 10KT. Eastern KY remains on the northern fringe of a ridge of sfc high pressure extending across much of the southeast Conus. VFR is expected to prevail through the period. Winds should generally remain light and variable overnight to south to southwest at less than 10KT on ridgetops and in more open terrain locations. However, as the sfc high settles further south and southeast of the area and weakens Wednesday during the later half of the period, a cold front will approach. Once the nocturnal inversion mixes out, sustained winds will be south to southwest in the 5 to 15KT range with gusts as high as the 20 to 25KT range.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.