textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A major pattern change begins tonight, with a much colder air mass gradually working its way into Eastern Kentucky. - Showery weather returns this evening, then lingers through Saturday morning as the cold air advection regime persists.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday/early Saturday, with minor accumulations primarily confined to the higher terrain locales along the Virginia state line.

- Dry weather with a slow warming trend expected next week.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM EST WED NOV 11 2026

The beginning of the long term period will be characterized by deep 500 mb troughing over the eastern CONUS; meanwhile, an amplified 500 mb ridge will be centered over the High Plains, with a closed upper level low farther west off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Multiple impulses embedded within the broader eastern CONUS troughing will continue to support a more active weather pattern locally. At the surface, flow around a relatively deep surface low to the northeast and a surface high over western Ontario will support northwesterly winds, a typical upslope pattern.

Given this pattern, the environment will be supportive of scattered precipitation across the forecast area on Friday. Largely northerly to northwesterly flow just above the surface will work to advect additional moisture from the Great Lakes into eastern Kentucky, although there is still uncertainty regarding the location of the best moisture; should low level flow be closer to northerly, the most concentrated moisture from Lake Michigan could end up west of the forecast area, only being pulled into eastern Kentucky as the system lifts northeast, with the most widespread moisture entering our area in a diffuse plume originating from Lake Huron. Meanwhile, more northwesterly flow could provide a more efficient and typical Lake Michigan moisture fetch, resulting in better moisture overall. This will have implications for instability locally, with deterministic soundings across the forecast area showing a skinny but nonzero CAPE profile generally concentrated in the 0 to -10C layer, indicating Friday's activity will likely be convective in nature. Even a few degree shift in dewpoints (well within the margin of uncertainty according to the latest ensemble guidance) could alter this CAPE profile, which itself could influence the ceiling of shower intensity. Regardless, low level moisture should be adequate for at least some upslope precipitation, and additional shortwaves should provide enough lift for scattered showers.

Unfortunately, thermodynamics are quite marginal for a rain/snow mix in most lower elevation locations, introducing forecast uncertainty regarding precipitation type. Temperatures aloft will be cool, with guidance indicating 850 mb temperatures will generally be in the range of -4C to -5C. Meanwhile, at the surface, REFS mean wet bulb temperatures are generally in the 34-36F range on Friday afternoon, with deterministic soundings indicating rain will likely be the primary precipitation type in these regions. Even so, it is worth noting that these wet bulb temperatures are marginal for a rain/snow mix, and the aforementioned uncertainty regarding moisture quality will also inherently introduce wet bulb temperature uncertainty. Should a "higher" instability solution materialize, bursts of more intense shower activity could introduce additional dynamic cooling in the column, allowing for more of a localized rain/snow mix. Given the potential for this cooling, in addition to expected scattered precipitation, temperatures were nudged down on Friday, with a slight chance for a rain/snow mix introduced across the forecast area; however, this snow potential remains highly conditional, and any breaks in clouds could allow for diurnal heating that could work to offset cooling, again favoring rain. Thus, expect rain to be the dominant precipitation type in valley locations, and even if snow does fall, warm ground temperatures should prevent notable accumulations. On the highest terrain (particularly Black and Pine Mountains), cooler temperatures will allow for a less ambiguous precipitation type, with snow being favored. Again, soil temperatures should inhibit significant accumulations, although measurable snow is likely at the highest elevations.

Looking into the weekend and beyond, a quieter pattern will set in. Upslope precipitation could linger over southeastern Kentucky into Saturday as northwest flow continues; however, aloft, the synoptic pattern will become significantly less active. The initial trough will begin to shift eastward, with intense height rises across the forecast area on Saturday; meanwhile, the upper level low initially located off the Pacific Northwest coast will force ridging farther east into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure over the Midwest and the eastward translation of the New England low will allow winds to gradually become more northerly and eventually northeasterly by Sunday, marking an end to our upslope regime. Temperatures will still be cool, albeit with a warming trend next week, which should see highs rise from the 40s this weekend to the upper 50s by Wednesday. Nights will be the coolest of the season thus far, with temperatures falling into the mid 20s in some valley locations. Despite the cold, weather will be pleasant, with high pressure dominating and plenty of sunshine expected.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 159 PM EST WED NOV 11 2026

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at the 18Z TAF issuance. A round of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, will through the area this evening/overnight, mainly after 02z, ahead of a cold front. Lowering ceilings and a transition from westerly to northwesterly winds is expected toward 12Z as a second cold front crosses the area. Reductions to MVFR or briefly lower conditions are probable during the last 12 hours of the period. Winds will average 10 kts or less generally from the south to southwest through early this evening, with winds likely trending more westerly after 00z and then northwesterly after 12z. A few gusts of 20 kts or more cannot be completely ruled out this evening and overnight. Though thunder is possible this evening into the overnight, probabilities were too lower to put in any particular TAF.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.