textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and very warm conditions continue through tonight, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return Sunday afternoon and persist through most of next week.

- Rain chances peak Monday through Wednesday, with high moisture supporting a risk for locally heavy rainfall.

- Humid conditions continue through the week, with afternoon highs remaining generally in the 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 637 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

Temperatures have remained several degrees milder than previously forecast over the northern foothill with some mixing/thicker mid- level cloud cover early this morning, so hourly temperature forecasts were brought into line with observations. Valley fog has also been very limited. Otherwise, forecast seems to be in good shape for the day ahead with mostly to partly sunny skies and widespread highs in the 80s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 342 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

The period should start with upper level ridging extending from the southeast CONUS sharply northward over the Great Lakes. A weakening upper low (currently over west TX) will be riding up the western side of the ridge while a trough amplifies southeastward on the eastern side. A surface cold front associated with the eastern trough should be near or north of the Ohio River at the start of the period, losing southward momentum as its supporting trough departs. A rather moist air mass should be in place over our area south of the front. With instability waning and ridging overhead, Sunday night will probably be dry, despite the possible proximity of the front.

A modest remnant trough from the western upper low is expected to ripple/ride through the ridge on Monday into Wednesday and result in geopotential height falls over us. At the same time, our low level flow is forecast to increase out of the southwest and provide warm/moist advection as what's left of the front lifts back north. This will probably result in our highest POP of the week as convection (largely diurnal) occurs. Even with the trough passing over, our flow aloft should remain fairly weak and limit storm organization. However, high atmospheric moisture (PW near 2" in the GFS) would support locally heavy rainfall.

The upper trough departs Wednesday night and upper level ridging reestablishes over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There is model disagreement as to how strong this renewed ridging will be. If it's modest, it may not be enough to overcome diurnal destabilization and prevent deep convection, especially if a weak cold front can approach from the north. Even if its stronger, the ridge may be to our northwest and allow thunderstorms to develop over us on its periphery. That being the case, a POP will remain in the forecast Thursday and Friday, but with a lower probability compared to Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period outside of any nocturnal river valley fog. The patchy fog presently in the sheltered river valleys will lift/dissipate by 13-14Z. Otherwise, mid and high clouds will continue to pass over the area through the forecast period. Additionally, a shallow diurnal cumulus field is expected from late morning through the afternoon hours. Winds will become southwest at up to 10 kts for all TAF terminals after 14-15Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.