textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm conditions are expected today and continue into Wednesday ahead of a cold front that will reach eastern Kentucky Wednesday night.

- This cold front will bring widespread rain and meaningful rain rain totals to most locations from Wednesday into early on Thursday. - A cooling trend will take place during the second half of the week into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 640 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

Grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends. This led to no substantial changes at this point. Valley fog present in some locations south of the Mountain Parkway should lift and dissipate within a couple of hours after sunrise. Otherwise, a mile day is in store with temperatures expected to climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early November.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 425 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

Behind the shortwave trough and a cold front departing to the east, drier air will spread across the remainder of eastern KY on Thursday. This will result in a trend to drier weather as a trough begins to take shape over sections of the Central to eastern Conus. The upper low that will have reached the Great Lakes is progged to weaken to an open wave as it moves into Canada and a 500 mb shortwave trough axis should trek across the Great Lakes and near the Lower OH Valley by late Thursday night or Friday. Another upper low may develop in the Great Lakes vicinity and track into the Northeast/St Lawrence Valley to begin the weekend, while the 500 mb shortwave trough axis moves across the OH Valley and eastern KY area later Friday into early on Saturday. Another sfc cold front associated with trough will cross eastern KY at that point. Guidance generally has an increase in low and mid level rh with this boundary but moisture will be quite limited this far to the south. Isolated showers producing light rainfall cannot be ruled out. Yet another upper low/shortwave trough may move into eastern Canada to eastern Conus troughing to end the weekend and pass north of the OH Valley and send another cold front across eastern KY.

With upper level troughing moving across the eastern Conus this weekend, before shifting east of the OH Valley and eastern KY early next week, northwest flow aloft will be present. A trend to near normal if not a bit below normal temperatures is anticipated. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s this weekend, before temperatures trend colder for Sunday night and Monday behind the second cold front as sfc high pressure builds in. Lows could near the freezing mark or possibly fall below freezing for several valley locations and low lying areas over the weekend or early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2026

VFR was observed across much of the area to begin the period, with valley fog likely resulting IFR or worse conditions in some non TAF site locations. This fog should lift and dissipate through around 14Z, and give way to VFR areawide. VFR ceilings should prevail through the period as an upper ridge shifts to the east, while an upper trough and associated cold front approaches from the west. The return of mid clouds is anticipated after about 18Z as moisture begins to increase in advance of the approaching system, with some low clouds arriving during the last 12 hours of the period. Showers should begin to arrive from the west to end the period. Winds are expected to remain southeast to south at 10KT or less through the period, except stronger winds are possible in the higher terrain near the VA border mainly after 00Z. Winds, especially aloft will increase late in the period and some marginal LLWS cannot be ruled out. Opted to include the threat of low level wind shear at JKL where surface winds are forecast to be lightest.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.