textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures around 10 to 20 degrees above normal persist through Saturday.

- A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is likely between Friday morning and Saturday. Highest rainfall amounts look to favor the Cumberland Valley at this time.

- Locally higher rainfall totals and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but the flooding and severe weather risks remain low. - A colder and drier airmass moves into the region over the weekend and persists into early next week.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 416 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026

The extended period, starting Friday evening, will feature a cold front progressing through Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast, producing showers across the area. Scattered thunderstorm chances are also possible, but should be confined to an area along and west of the I-75 corridor. By the time the cold front, and any convective line approaches or enters Eastern Kentucky, a lot of the limited atmospheric energy, from the day, will have tapered off. This cold front, from an exiting system lifting northeast over the Great Lakes and into New England, will stall out over SE Kentucky near the Appalachians. Additionally, a secondary area of low pressure will follow the lee side of an upper-level trough over the Central US, and eject east to northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and eventually the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. This stalled cold front may lift north during the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning as a weak warm front. Showers are expected to increase in coverage as this happens, while dew points remains in the low to mid 50s in the early morning hours Saturday. PWAT (precipitable water) is forecasted around 1.25 inches with the warm front lifting back north in the pre-dawn hours. LREF ensemble solutions have trended down some across the north. Previous chances of seeing 1 inch of rainfall north of the I-64 corridor was around 40-50%. Those chances have now dropped to a 10-20% chance. A 20-50% chance of seeing 1 inch south of I-64 but north of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor is down from a 50- 80% chance. All while the 80-85% chance of seeing at least 1 inches of rain along and south of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor including the Cumberland River Basin is now down to 50-75%. The LREF ensemble currently shows the possibility of meeting or exceeding 2 inches of rainfall around 10-25% along and south of the Hal-Rogers/KY-80 corridor.

Steadiest rainfall is expected overnight Friday where showers will also support a slight chance of thunderstorms along and west of the I-75 corridor. In general the forecast area will likely see 0.75-2 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible in the most persistent showers or thunderstorms. 6-hr flood guidance remains over 2 inches for most areas with rivers and streams already running slightly below normal. The 1-2 inches of expected rainfall is also over 48 hours. While there may be ponding water in poor drainage areas, large scale river flooding is not expected at this time.

By Saturday morning the low coming out of the South is modeled to be over Western Kentucky, with its cold front passing through Eastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon. Throughout the day, the upper level trough progresses northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers tapper off west to east through Saturday, but may lingerer into Sunday. After the remnant showers taper off Sunday, quiet weather should remain in place through the first half of next week. The next chance of active weather returns around mid-week, in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe.

Temperatures in the extended will be unseasonably warm, Friday evening, holding steady in the mid 50s through the night. While Saturday sees southerly winds becoming westerly behind the frontal passage, it also see high temperatures in the low to mid 60s ahead of the cold front. Cold air advects into the area Saturday night leading to temperatures around the freezing mark. Sunday, temperatures don't recover much, struggling to make it out of the 30s for highs, which will feel like a huge shock from the low to mid 60s the day prior. Skies clear heading into Sunday night leading to some ridge-valley splits and temperatures dropping into the teens to mid 20s. Gradual warming occurs through next week, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s on Monday, upper 40s to low 50s Tuesday, upper 40s on Wednesday, before cooling back into the upper 30s for Thursday. At night, upper 20s Monday night, mid to upper 30s Tuesday night, just below freezing Wednesday night, and a tad colder in the low to mid 20s for Thursday night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday) ISSUED AT 1141 PM EST WED JAN 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with the exception of radiation fog in the river valleys overnight into the morning hours Thursday, with the highest chances for low VIS or CIGS at LOZ and SME. Winds will be light and variable through Thursday morning before increasing out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 kts by the afternoon. A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet develops after 00z Friday ahead of an approaching cold front, and this will bring increasing southerly winds at the surface as well as LLWS aloft.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.