textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers are expected through tonight, with a chance of thunderstorms.

- Much colder air arrives this weekend and lingers into early next week.

- Light snow may occur in some locations by Sunday and possibly into Monday, but any accumulations look to be minor.

UPDATE

Issued at 1030 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026

Temperatures are problematic tonight. Some locations cooled by earlier convection are rebounding and mixing in the warm air advection, while the deeper valleys continue to cool. Still forecasting an eventual turnaround for the cooler valleys, but confidence is low as to when and what extent, since more precip should also be developing. The next round of showers/thunderstorms has started to pop up just to the west of the JKL forecast area and should expand in coverage ahead of the approaching cold front.

UPDATE Issued at 819 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026

Precip has ended for the time being and the POP has been dropped very low for a time this evening. Expecting more shower/thunderstorm development later tonight as a cold front approaches. Still looks like only marginal instability but strong speed and directional shear will be present. That being the case, can't rule out additional severe wx (mainly in our NW counties), and the marginal svr wx outlook from SPC has this covered.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 620 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026

Progressive and amplified flow looks to remain in place through the majority of the long term period over the CONUS. A northern and central Plains trough will deepen as it moves southeast this weekend, while ridging sharpens up over the Continental Divide and slides east, broadening with time. At the surface, cyclogenesis will take place along a lingering baroclinic zone aligned from the Carolinas through the Deep South Saturday night into Sunday. This low will deepen more rapidly once it reaches the Mid-Atlantic coast, with models still differing quite a bit on the details of the track and intensity of this feature as we begin the new work week. The upstream broader ridging will shift east after Monday, with recovering 500 mb heights seen across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Additional northern stream energy will then move in across the north central CONUS for middle of the week, sending a surface cold front southeast across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday.

Sensible weather will feature a slight chance of rain Saturday morning, as we remain on the northern fringe of the moisture just to our south. Highs will still average above normal in the 50s. Better precipitation chances will occur Saturday night, as the deeper upper level trough approaches from the northwest. Consequently, stronger cold air advection will also ensue, with a return of more wintertime temperatures and a changeover to light snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Lows will be in the low 30s, with highs on Sunday only a few to several degrees higher. Snow shower activity will continue across mainly locations east of I-75 through late Monday, gradually becoming more confined to our southeastern terrain, as the trough over the East only slowly pulls away. High pressure will build in Monday night, with lows back into the teens to lower 20s, depending on how quickly the low level cloud cover diminishes. Temperatures will then rebound Tuesday through Thursday, with highs starting out in the low to mid 40s for Tuesday, and then warming to the low to mid 50s by Thursday. Dry weather can be expected from Monday night through Wednesday morning, before rain chances increase once again as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1209 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026

Aside from areas of valley fog north of KJKL and a few showers/thunderstorms over the Cumberland drainage basin, conditions were generally VFR at TAF issuance. The fog is a result of cooling/saturation due to showers/thunderstorms which moved through in the afternoon and early evening, but it was not affecting any airport obs at the start of the period.

The showers/thunderstorms over the Cumberland drainage basin extend westward. They will further develop as the area moves quickly northeast through eastern KY overnight ahead of a cold front. They will bring localized IFR or worse conditions at times. The cold frontal passage will bring the precip to an end and also give an increase in winds out of the WSW by dawn. The winds are forecast to gust 20-30 kts during the day Friday, but diminish in the evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.