textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog around through the morning commute.

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the week.

- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms through the week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Aside from upping most of the area to a Dense Fog Advisory through 9 am, no significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was to add in just a touch of terrain details each night along with some valley fog. Nearby troughing aloft still looks to keep things unsettled through the period - with highest PoPs and potential QPF noted for Thursday and Friday. This is when the core of any mid-level energy passes through eastern Kentucky along with a southward dropping sfc boundary heading into the start of the weekend - synoptically enhancing the pcpn.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Model guidance remains in good agreement regarding an amplifying long wave pattern towards the end of the week and into early next week. Detail differences do grow with time, especially pertaining to questions associated with the influence of the mesoscale. An upper level low will be positioned near the IL/KY/MO border to begin Wednesday morning, with a positively tilted trough stretched southwest through the lower Mississippi Valley. Further east, ridging remains anchored across the southeastern CONUS, while another high center remains over the far southwestern CONUS. The upper low will gradually dampen and shift east through mid- week, before the southwestern CONUS ridge amplifies, with downstream troughing also sharpening from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley through New England. By the end of the week, an anomalously strong high will be sprawled from the central/northern Rockies to the central/northern Plains, while a broader trough is established along the Eastern Seaboard. The high will continue to spread east with time into early next week, with the eastern trough enhancing across the western Atlantic.

All of this results in sustaining the true summer-time pattern across eastern Kentucky, with daily convective chances mainly peaking during the afternoon and evening hours. Model guidance has trended away from showing much of a break in the action through mid-week, given the influence of the dampening upper level low in the vicinity of the Commonwealth and also a diffuse surface frontal boundary nearby or just to our south. PWATs will remain elevated throughout the week, with a particularly better surge of 850 mb moisture transport seen Friday into Saturday. Given this more unsettled trend in the model guidance, WPC now has a marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook in place across our area each day through 12z Friday, followed by a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall ending 12z Saturday. A more decisive cold front will settle south of the Commonwealth by later this weekend or sometime early next week. Eventually, this will result in diminishing rain chances and lower dew points, although timing this far out remains problematic. Temperatures through next Monday will be seasonable, with daily highs mainly in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Aside from MVFR or VFR in the westernmost TAF site, most terminals are reporting VLIFR with fog and low CIGs. This will clear out over the next couple of hours for a brief period of VFR conditions everywhere. However, the threat of showers and storms are expected to redevelop this afternoon. Also anticipate at least some low clouds setting up late tonight and possible visibility restrictions into dawn Wednesday. Winds will be light and variable through the period but convection could bring gusty and erratic outflow winds along with category reductions.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-069-080-085>088-104-106>120.