textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist this weekend across Eastern Kentucky.

- Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a possibility for strong to damaging wind gusts. - Excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to flash flooding.

- Heat indices will flirt with Heat Advisory levels (105F +) this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 516 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026

We will start the period still at the southern edge of faster mid-upper level flow (slightly south of due westerly), with ridging aloft over the Deep South. With dry mid levels expected and a lack of discernible significant features to focus convection, models are generating little or no precip for our area on Sunday. Have gone with a dry forecast as given by the NBM, but based on forecast soundings, wouldn't be surprised if at least some isolated activity occurred in our northeast counties.

A ripple moving through the mid-upper level flow to our north will support a weak cold front which is expected to approach us Sunday night and move through on Monday or Monday evening. Deeper moisture should return ahead of the front, with our PWs rising to around 2" again. With this, the potential for thunderstorms returns. Drier air arriving behind the front will probably keep us dry on Tuesday. However, there is a shortwave trough showing up in the GFS which moves through and results in a bit of precip. The required NBM forecast is dry on Tuesday with the exception of some 20% POP near the TN and VA border. If the shortwave and its precip persist in later runs, a low POP could end up over more of the area.

The next significant shot at precip arrives in the neighborhood of Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper level impulse carves out an eastern CONUS trough. This sends another cold front southeast, with atmospheric moisture again increasing ahead of the front. Behind the front, there could be some noticeable relief from the mugginess at the end of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026

Mainly VFR was observed at the 06Z TAF issuance time. Fog is developing in many of the sheltered river valleys and could eventually impact most of the TAF sites toward daybreak with MVFR or worse visibilities, though forecaster confidence in this occurring is only moderate. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is also possible due to a stalled frontal boundary lingering over the area. The valley fog will lift/burn off quickly after 12Z. VFR conditions can be expected for much of the daylight hours on Saturday; however, diurnal destabilization and the lingering frontal boundary will lead to a renewed threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Winds will generally be 10KT or less, except locally stronger and erratic near thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ083.