textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as a cold front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected at times, which could lead to isolated to scattered flash flooding on Saturday afternoon and night.

- Temperatures will warm back to above normal levels by the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 648 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

A stationary front extending from central KY southeast to near the Cumberland Gap will get shunted north overnight as upper disturbances move southwest to northeast across central KY. Based on observational and model trends, have lowered PoPs through much of tonight, with the best chance of showers and/or storms toward Lake Cumberland and toward the Bluegrass and Pennyroyal regions along and just east of the passage of the upper shortwaves.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 412 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

Aloft, at 500 mb, prominent features include an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West and Central Plains, while a trough sits over the Great Lakes and Northeast. In time, the ridge is expected to move east into the Southeast US including the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. When this ridge does make its way into the region, rising heights will support warmer temperatures, likely into the upper 80s and lower 90s. However, the last several model runs of the LREF Grand Ensemble show the area holding onto the Northeast trough a little longer while the mean positioning inches farther south with each successive run, thus potentially delaying the warming trend.

Currently, ensembles have the ridge building into the area sometime Monday, cresting over the area Tuesday and Wednesday before another upper level trough digs out of Central Canada into the Great Lakes later in the week.

For sensible weather: Sunday morning soundings suggest elevated winds within the lower boundary layer near the surface, as well as a surface layer thats not completely saturated. NBM guidance depicted areas of fog across the CWA Sunday morning, but due to the above-mentioned mitigating factors, edits were made to confine fog development to the more sheltered river valleys and hollows. Regardless, any fog formation should mix out by mid-morning.

There may also be some isolated shower or thunderstorm chances along the Kentucky/Virginia border Sunday morning. As the Great Lakes trough progresses through the northern Ohio Valley into the Northeast, heights will temporarily fall heading into Monday. With the potential for delayed trough timing, offices northeast of the CWA have introduced isolated shower chances overnight Sunday into Monday, though confidence was still too low to include the same chances across some of our northeastern counties at this time. At the surface, a cold front will move through the area Sunday evening and overnight. Patchy river valley fog may develop in the overnight hours. The passage of the cold front is expected to lead to cooler temperatures Monday, ranging from the lower to mid 80s north to south. With rising heights Tuesday and Wednesday, afternoon high temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s before cooling into the upper 60s at night.

Towards the end of the forecast period, as the secondary trough moves into the Ohio Valley, a cold front at the surface is expected to move into the area sometime Thursday and Friday. Models and ensembles start to deviate, leading to the NBM smoothing PoP out over both days. Generally, a 20-45% PoP is in the forecast for this time to account for the uncertainty.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026

The remnants of convection from this morning are lifting away into the Mid-Ohio Valley, allowing for increasing sunshine and improving ceilings from south to north early this afternoon. A few lingering showers cannot be ruled out through 19Z over northeastern Kentucky. Otherwise, the increasing sunshine will generally promote VFR conditions under an extensive cumulus field. However, a few stronger updrafts could still mature into isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, bringing brief, localized reductions in flight categories. Confidence in timing/location of this convection was too low to include PROB30 groups at specific TAF sites. For tonight, low clouds and fog could also be a problem even as we see a lull in the showers and storms. Otherwise, away from any storms, winds will be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for KYZ044-052-104-106-107-109-110-119-120.