textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures will last into the weekend, with milder readings then forecast to return early next week.

- There is a potential for a soaking rain during the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 734 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026

Rain has exited the area and skies have cleared in may places. There are more low clouds arriving from the north which will affect at least the eastern portion of the forecast area. Confidence remains rather low in how these clouds evolve today into tonight.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 407 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026

The forecast period begins with surface high pressure remaining firmly entrenched over the area. However, upper-level flow will be out of the northwest, prompting the advection of cooler air into the region. Therefore, while the period will start dry, cold air advection through the vertical column will lead to cooler temperatures; nonetheless, these temperatures will still remain a few degrees warmer than seasonal averages. Upper-level ridging will remain in place through the early part of the period, aiding in large-scale subsidence and maintaining dry conditions. Through Friday night and into Saturday, the ridge axis is forecast to shift eastward. While this initially leads to rising heights, the ridge will quickly depart to the east as the region moves into the diffluent downstream side of an approaching trough, favoring large- scale ascent. This shift is driven by an upper-level trough progged to eject out of the Desert Southwest toward the Commonwealth. By Saturday evening, a surface wave will track into the Ozarks, with its associated warm front lifting into the region. This synoptic setup will bring increasing PoPs beginning Saturday evening. PoP chances will ramp up overnight as the system tracks through the upper-Deep South, keeping the forecast area within the primary precipitation shield. While this positioning would typically favor accumulating snow, thermal profiles remain too warm to support frozen precipitation as forecast temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Through the passage of this system, total QPF values are expected to range from 0.40 inches along the Bluegrass and I-64 corridor to nearly one inch across the Cumberland Basin and Cumberland Plateau.

Showers will persist through much of Sunday, but by Monday morning, the system will exit to the east. Surface high pressure will subsequently nudge back into the region. This high will remain the dominant feature through the early part of next week before another system is progged to move through the Ohio Valley, bringing renewed threats for rain starting Wednesday morning.

Overall, the period will be characterized by surface high pressure sandwiching a slow-moving surface low. High temperatures will hover in the upper 40s to upper 50s beginning Friday and persisting into Monday, before a significant warming trend brings mid 50s and mid 60s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will start in the mid 20s but will follow a similar upward trajectory, eventually capping out in the upper 40s by Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) ISSUED AT 726 AM EST WED FEB 11 2026

The start of the period saw largely VFR conditions across the JKL forecast area. Exceptions include some small areas of MVFR in far southeast KY and also around KSYM northward and eastward. The regime will overall shift south today, with VFR conditions returning in southeast KY this morning, but MVFR ceilings also expected to make a return over much of the eastern portion of the forecast area from north to south and last at least until tonight. That area would include KSYM, KJKL, and KSJS. A slow eastward retreat of ceilings is then forecast during the night. With all that said, it is a rather low confidence forecast, with a large amount of uncertainty where the western edge of ceilings will be and how quickly they will retreat. At this point, all except the far eastern tip of the area (east of KPBX) is forecast to have VFR conditions by the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.