textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost is possible late tonight into early Friday morning in sheltered rural valleys and hollows, away from mainstem rivers.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances arrive to start the weekend followed by a pattern shift that favors temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 1215 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026

Clouds are extensive over most of the area and temperatures are slower to climb than was forecast. Have lowered today's fcst max temps a little bit based on the morning's trends.

UPDATE Issued at 810 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026

Hourly grid were freshened up based on recent observations and satellite trends. A general trend to a filling in the low clouds over sections of eastern KY is occurring. Following that trend, opted to to increase in sky cover this morning to early or mid afternoon in the east compared to the previous NBM based forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 450 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026

A strong area of high pressure and its parent ridging features aloft look to strengthen over the SE CONUS this weekend, leaving much of Kentucky in return flow. A series of shortwave disturbances ejecting around the northwestern periphery of this ridge and into the Greater Ohio River Valley will progressively pull a warm front through our forecast area from Friday night into Saturday. Chance PoPs spread northeast across the forecast area as overrunning moisture arrives after midnight early on Saturday morning.

The persistence and continued strengthening of southwesterly low level flow behind Friday night's boundary will pump a warm, moist airmass into the area on Saturday morning. The front is likely to stall out by midday, but a second, reinforcing disturbances arrives later that afternoon and triggers additional storms. Saturday does not look look like a total washout though, as this second round of convection will likely be isolated to scattered in nature. Showers and storms will have more instability to work with on Saturday than they did on Friday night, but there are several limiting factors present. The LREF depicts a south-north gradient of 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE, but with increasing CIN the closer one gets to the strengthening southeastern ridge. Shower/storm coverage will be greater closer to the boundary, which is progged to be somewhere to the north of the Mountain Parkway corridor on Saturday afternoon. This overlaps with the greatest instability, but the rather weak nature of the dynamics aloft does not favor sufficient bulk shear, 25KT per 00Z LREF mean for widespread organized updrafts. Thus, Saturday's convection appears pulsy, with a chance for small hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning in the strongest cells. Some recent GEFS and ENS based AI severe convective hazard probability guidance has somewhat higher probabilities into the OH Valley in the vicinity of the anticipated boundary. SPC has the northern portion of the CWA on the eastern extent of a Day 3 Marginal Risk. Trends will be monitored closely.

Once the boundary lifts well to the north of the forecast on Saturday night, the area's sensible weather will be driven primarily by the further-strengthening ridge. The flow aloft will back further and further towards the southwest as troughing digs deeper into the Great Plains early next week. Such a synoptic pattern favors a noticeable warming trend, and subsidence under the ridge favors mostly clear skies and efficient diurnal warming processes on both Sunday and Monday. The deterministic baseline NBM data has been running too hot in this time frame, bringing temperatures into the 90s on Sunday. Taking a look at the broader probabilistic forecast envelope, temperatures are more likely to reach the 90s on Monday than on Sunday. Midlevel heights reach their maxima on Monday, and there is greater probabilistic support for highs in the lower half of the 90s by then. Following continued coordination with neighboring WFOs and WPC, highs were capped in the upper 80s to around 90 on Sunday and below 95 on Monday. Ridge-valley splits and river valley fog will be possible both nights with the ridging dominating.

While the flow aloft favors efficient warm air advection around the ridge on Sunday and Monday, the more robust moisture return will likely hold off late Monday night or Tuesday. This will limit the magnitude of any associated heat risk concerns for Sunday to Monday. However, record highs at the KJKL and KLOZ climate sites could be threatened. The timing of this early-season heat coincidentally aligns with the 2026 National Integrated Heat Health Information System's Heat Safety Week campaign. Interests are accordingly encouraged to monitor official NWS social media channels to learn more about heat-related impacts and heat safety tips next week. Deeper troughing emerges in the Plains on Tuesday and orients the flow in manner that gives our area better access to Gulf moisture. As the trough and its attending surface low eject into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, a cold front approaches Kentucky. That boundary is likely to stall out to the west of our CWA, but the return flow out ahead of it will yield widespread dewpoints around or in excess of 60. The greater humidity in the atmospheric column will correspond with increased cloud cover, so temperatures readings on the thermometer will likely be a couple of degrees cooler than what occurs on Monday. Highs in the upper 80s will combine with the aforementioned dewpoints to produce plenty of instability for isolated to scattered open warm sector storms on Tuesday afternoon and evening. PoPs increase overnight into Wednesday as the front sags southeast, and that frontal passage should facilitate a return to more seasonably appropriate temperatures by mid to late week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026

VFR conditions were present at TAF issuance, but there were ceilings mainly in the 3.5-5K ft AGL range generally near/east of I-75. The ceilings will break up from west to east during the late afternoon and early evening, leaving mostly clear skies to finish the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.