textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected from Tuesday through Friday. Some of those storms could arrive as organized clusters with a potential for strong to damaging wind gusts. - Isolated to scattered instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding - especially for mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 725 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 459 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

Active weather will continue in the long term period, with multiple bouts of thunderstorms probable. However, confidence in details is still very elusive.

We will start the period still under west northwest flow in the mid- upper levels, near the southern edge of faster flow, and with subtropical ridging just to our south southwest. A very warm and humid surface air mass will remain in place and give considerable instability. This completes the setup for MCSs to develop where there's enough focus from initiating features. The forecasting problems are that these features are relatively weak in the big scheme of things, and also that future convection relies in part on the evolution of difficult to forecast prior convection. Have used a broadbrushed forecast for POP through Friday based on blended models.

The GFS and ECMWF both show potential for a weak cold front to slip south southwest through the JKL forecast area by the weekend as a weak low rotates through a northeast CONUS trough and enhances the upper level flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Should this come to pass, there could be a break in the precip potential at the start of the weekend. Any relief from the muggy air mass would probably be minimal, as the upper troughing quickly departs and ridging builds into our area from the southwest during the weekend and supports hot and humid weather.

Models then show another impulse moving through the faster flow to our north and northeast, which suppresses the ridging back to the southwest early in the new week. This would allow another weak cold front to push in from the north with an increase in the POP in the neighborhood of Monday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

VFR conditions prevailed over all TAF sites at the start of the 18Z forecast period. A cumulus field is noted across the area with cloud bases generally at 3-4 kft AGL. An MCS tracking from OH into WV is laying out an outflow boundary just northeast of the state. If convection can refire along this boundary, a new MCS could develop and drop across the CWA later this evening and tonight. Included PROB30 groups with this update, though forecaster confidence is rather low. Away from any storms, winds will be around 10kts or less, generally from the southwest.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ044-052-104-106-107- 109-110-119-120.