textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front moving from north to south will bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the area this afternoon through tonight. Rain chances will linger through the weekend in some locations, especially in southeast Kentucky.

- Dry and cooler weather will arrive area wide for the new workweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 1040 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Lowered today's temps and brought in POP faster where clouds and light showers are already showing up in our northwest.

UPDATE Issued at 747 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

Modifications to Sky and PoP grids were made through this afternoon, with the more significant changes in the near term based on latest satellite and model trends with the arrival and development of showers and possible thunderstorms toward midday. The Sky and PoP grids blended in latest CAMS to slow the arrival of lower clouds and PoPs by a couple of hours from the previous forecast.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 238 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

The long term period will open with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS, with the trough axis initially west of the forecast area in the Midwest. Meanwhile, a midlevel high will be centered over the Four Corners region, with a fairly broad area of ridging over the western CONUS. At the surface, an area of low pressure will initially sit due south of the forecast area in Tennessee; this low will attempt to lift north towards the forecast area early Sunday morning before an additional cold front pushes through the area by Sunday afternoon. Rain will remain likely in southeastern Kentucky throughout the day given closer proximity to the surface low, with lesser chances to the northwest. Thankfully, widespread cloud cover and a relatively cool and saturated air mass will keep instability very low (with LREF mean surface based CAPE of 100 J/kg on Sunday afternoon), so rain rates with this activity should remain meager, mitigating any flash flood risk.

By Monday morning, the front will have departed our area, with northerly to north northeasterly postfrontal winds ushering in a cooler and drier air mass. At the same time, midlevel ridging will expand east, leaving eastern Kentucky in a region of northwest flow aloft near the base of the original trough. This pattern will persist through Wednesday, with highs remaining quite cool (generally ranging from the upper 60s in the northern forecast area to low 70s in the south). It will feel dry early next week, too; dewpoints will largely be in the 40s across the forecast area through Tuesday, courtesy of continued northeasterly winds around a surface high over the Great Lakes region. Each night, clear skies and light winds will allow for temperatures to cool significantly, particularly in valleys. Raw NBM output is running noticeably cooler than deterministic models, even in valley locations, although MOS guidance does suggest valleys could reach the low 40s overnight Monday and Tuesday. Adding uncertainty, deterministic guidance still disagrees regarding the magnitude of the pressure gradient over our forecast area; a tighter pressure gradient, favored by the GFS, would prevent full decoupling, keeping valleys warmer. Thus, there is less confidence in exact low temperatures, although confidence is high that overnight temperatures will be below average.

By Wednesday, the surface high will continue to shift east, with winds becoming more westerly during the afternoon hours, allowing dewpoints to rise modestly into the 50s. Lows will be a bit warmer Wednesday night, only falling into the mid 40s. Still, weather looks to be sunny through the end of the period, with high temperatures climbing a few degrees by Thursday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period. A cold front will be arriving from the northwest this afternoon and will bring rising rain chances and worsening ceilings. Instability is sufficient for a few thunderstorms, and these are handled with PROB30 groups in the TAFs. Behind the front, a period of IFR conditions is likely along with light rain showers, and these conditions may persist through the end of the TAF period.

Winds will continue to increase and veer to the southwest at around 5 to 10 kts this morning, with gusts around 15 to 18 kts until frontal passage. Winds veer to northerly and then northeasterly at less than 10 kts behind the frontal passage.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.