textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through Wednesday morning. Slow storm motions and a very moist atmosphere will support torrential downpours and a flash flood risk.

- Lower rain chances and more sun on Thursday will only serve to make things more uncomfortable, with maximum heat indices of 95 to 100 for most places.

- A cold front brings widespread rain back to the region on Friday, with a risk of strong storms and heavy rainfall.

- Somewhat drier air arrives for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 830 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure well off to the southeast of the state while lower pressure and a frontal system is noted to the north. This has placed eastern Kentucky in the midst of a warm and humid flow of air through the lower atmosphere making for sticky conditions. All it took was an impulse traveling by aloft to trigger rounds of storms for the region through the day, though we now appear to be entering a lull for the second part of the evening. However, most models, including recent CAMs continue to suggest a renewed threat for storms and a possible inbound MCS from the northwest into the Bluegrass region after midnight. Have tailored the PoPs and thunder chances for this idea with this update. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 70s most places. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are generally in the uncomfortable low to mid 70s - indicating high PW air. All the reason for the continued Flood Watch for the western half of the JKL CWA which has been hit a bit harder these past 48 hours. Have updated the forecast for those PoP adjustments and also to to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 333 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

The forecast period will begin with the area positioned within the warm sector of a surface wave migrating through central Canada. The upper-level trough and its associated surface low are forecast to eject northeastward through the day Wednesday, slowly meandering eastward. By the start of the extended period, the center of the low will remain in Canada, while its associated cold and warm fronts will extend into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, respectively. This synoptic setup places the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold front. Consequently, this will bring an increasing 20 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area on Thursday, primarily focusing across the eastern two-thirds of the CWA. As instability wanes toward the evening, thunderstorm activity will decrease, giving way to partly cloudy skies. Areas that receive rainfall and clearing skies could experience locally dense river valley fog through Friday morning. Temperatures within the warm sector are projected to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, before dipping into the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight.

Friday brings the approach of the cold front along with heightened chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Probability of precipitation maximizes at 80% across much of the area. Forecast soundings ahead of Fridays cold front indicate that a potent thermodynamic environment could exist. Although forecast vertical wind shear values remain meager, steep lapse rates combined with both MUCAPE and MLCAPE exceeding 2,500 J/kg will be present. Furthermore, DCAPE approaching 900 J/kg points toward a pulse thunderstorm environment capable of producing gusty outflows. Precipitable water values approaching 1.90 inches also lend credit to heavy rainfall potential. This combination of factors has prompted a Day 4 SPC 15% severe weather outlook alongside a Day 4 WPC Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Once frontal passage occurs, skies will clear and weak surface high pressure will build into the area by early Saturday morning. Pre-frontal daytime temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, but weak CAA behind the front will allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid-60s Friday night.

Surface high pressure will firmly build into the region behind the front for Saturday into very early Sunday. Daytime highs are forecast to start in the low to mid-80s on Saturday, climbing a few degrees higher by Sunday, while overnight lows range from the low to mid-60s each night. Unfortunately, this weak surface high pressure will be pushed out of the area late Saturday night as a secondary cold front drops southeastward into the region. This next system will bring increasing shower and storm chances beginning Sunday morning and persisting through the end of the period. Under the influence of these persistent rain chances and subsequent cloud cover, temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be notably cooler, averaging about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Saturday and Sunday.

The area will experience warm temperatures and a few storms on Thursday before a strong cold front arrives on Friday, bringing a high chance of heavy rain and strong, gusty thunderstorms. High pressure will bring a brief stretch of dry and pleasant weather for most of the weekend. However, a second cold front will move into the region late Saturday night, causing rain chances to return on Sunday and bringing much cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

Conditions were mostly VFR at the start of the period, with some spots of LIFR to MVFR from lingering convective patches for eastern parts of the aviation forecast area - though currently waning.

These widely varying conditions are expected to persist through the period, with showers and thunderstorms, at times. After a few hours of a lull late this evening, the greatest potential for additional showers and thunderstorms arrives early overnight and lingers into Wednesday morning for our northern and central terminals. However, confidence in the timing/location is just medium at best, as reflected by plenty of PROB30 and TEMPO groups in the TAFs through 18Z Wednesday. Then quieter weather should prevail for a bit starting that afternoon. Winds will be less than 10 kts through the period - away from any storms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-111-112-114-116.