textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through Wednesday.

- A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday or Wednesday night, with strong winds possible.

- After a sharp cool-down Thursday, mild temperatures return for Friday into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1045 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026

An upper-level disturbance currently near/over the Missouri Bootheel and extending westward into the Central Plains will push eastward across the Commonwealth overnight, bringing with it a surge of moisture and elevated instability. While the upstream regional radar imagery is quiet at present, CAMs continue to suggest scattered showers and perhaps isolated storms developing ahead of this feature, reaching the Lake Cumberland area toward dawn and then spreading into other portions of eastern Kentucky during the morning and early afternoon hours. Overall convective intensity should be weak given poor lapse rates and meager forcing.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026

High clouds are moving in from the southwest early this evening. Temperatures range in the lower to middle 70s but will fall back into the 60s (50s valleys) as the sun sets. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken as well through the remainder of the evening.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 522 PM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

When the long term forecast period opens on Wednesday morning, the area will be firmly positioned within the warm sector of a deepening low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes. A strengthening, vertically stacked regime of southwesterly low- to mid- level flow will advect a warm/moist airmass into the region, leading to multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorm chances. A round of this activity will likely be ongoing as the sun rises, although it is expected to be well below severe limits. Both the currently- available deterministic model soundings and the HREF ensemble mean soundings for 12z Wednesday depict an overnight radiation inversion "capping" the atmosphere over our forecast area. However, hi-res ensemble mean MUCAPE values over 750 J/kg and 30-40 knots of bulk shear suggest that elevated thunderstorms will be possible during the AM hours. The evolution of this morning activity will need to be monitored closely as it push north-northeast towards the Ohio River. Its leftover cloud coverage will play a large role in the forecast for potentially stronger convection later on in the day/night, and the rainfall it produces could result in locally wetter soils ahead of any subsequent showers/storms.

As the sun comes up and diurnal warming/mixing takes place, the aforementioned inversion is forecast to mix out. Models depict the intensification of an 850mb LLJ over the Greater Ohio River Valley headed into the afternoon hours, and momentum transfer soundings suggest mixing heights up to this level. Combined, this favors gusty southwesterly winds reaching the surface, and the forecast wind gust grids were accordingly bumped up towards higher NBM percentile data. Looking probabilistically at this non-thundestorm wind threat, the 12z LREF resolves a greater than 80% chance of maximum wind gusts in excess of 30mph across the entire forecast area on Wednesday. If this threshold is raised to wind advisory criteria (40mph), the probabilities decrease to the 30-50% range and become limited to the Bluegrass region and areas north of I-64. These northwestern locations are closer to the core of that 50-60 knot 850mb jet streak, which will also place them in a more favorable kinematic environment for storms as the system's cold front approaches on Wednesday evening.

The thermodynamic environment for those storms remains more uncertain. The strong southwesterly low level flow regime outlined above will lead to efficient WAA and moisture return. Temperatures should easily rise into the mid 70s within the warm sector on Wednesday afternoon, but it is uncertain if the current forecast NBM highs closer to 80 will come to fruition. Recent deterministic model runs have been trending closer to that mid 70s range. This is likely a byproduct of more persistent cloud coverage. Ensemble mean PWAT values climb to between 1.25 and 1.40 inches as moisture continues to stream into the column ahead of the cold front. The enhanced moisture favors cloudier skies, which in turn, could also limit the amount of surface-based instability realized on Wednesday afternoon. Clearing currently appears most likely in southeastern KY, where proximity towards SE CONUS ridging could foster deeper mixing. That mixing would decrease surface dewpoints though, and thus, the convective ingredients in the open warm sector look to juxtapose one another. Discrete afternoon convection cannot be entirely ruled out, but compounding forecast uncertainty precludes the mention of specific details at this moment in time. As this event comes into the temporal range of higher-resolution, trends in convective parameter spacing will need to be monitored closely. For now though, SPC has maintained a Slight (Level 2/5) Risk for Severe Storms across the entire JKL CWA on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The system's cold front looks to pass through the forecast area on Wednesday evening, and models resolve a steep temperature gradient associated with FROPA. Thus, that boundary looks to provide ample forcing for additional showers and storms to cross the area from NW to SE after dark. Given the frontal forcing and strong deep-layer shear, that activity could take the form of a squall line or a QLCS upstream. This would favor damaging winds as the primary hazard type with any evening storms, but this last round of convection will be working against weaning instability as it enters our forecast area around/after sunset. Furthermore, if afternoon/evening convection comes to fruition, the atmosphere could be pretty worked over by the time the front arrives. Thus, this could also turn into the classic Eastern Kentucky severe weather situation where a QLCS decays as it pushes further and further into our forecast area. System total rainfall will need to be monitored if multiple rounds of activity occur, but precipitation chances should quickly taper off once FROPA occurs.

Winds shift towards the northwest behind the front on Wednesday night, allowing colder air and a surface high to build into the region to wrap up the work week. The chances for winter precipitation on the system's backside have dropped with this forecast package, although a few flakes may still fly in the higher terrain of SE KY early on Thursday morning. Expect drier, cooler weather for the remainder of the work week as a result. CAA leads to highs in the 40s and overnight lows in the 30 on Thursday. A disturbance passes to the NE on Friday, but the dry air that moves into the area behind the cold front will mitigate any substantial precipitation chances with it. Temperatures moderate headed into the weekend, with the next system progged to approach the area in the late Sunday-Monday time frame. That system is forecast to usher in a much colder airmass for the start of the next work week, and while details are course at this temporal range, winter precipitation cannot be ruled out on its backside.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026

VFR conditions were present at the start of the period and will last well into the night as mid-high clouds increase and thicken ahead of an approaching disturbance. Late tonight and Tuesday morning, largely MVFR ceilings should develop over the region from the southwest and west, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.