textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will arrive after midnight tonight, and continue at times through Thursday night. - Heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding northeast of I-75.

- Unsettled weather will continue through early this weekend, as the front stalls in the vicinity of eastern Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 824 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026

Trimmed low-end PoPs and Sky cover from the far north counties for the next few hours and delayed arrival of PoPs from the northwest a few hours, all based on latest observed and model trends. Otherwise, the hourly temperature forecast was updated with the latest hourly observations used as the initialization.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 528 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026

General model agreement remains regarding the long wave pattern through the middle of next week. Amplified and progressive flow will modulate across the northern half of the CONUS, while ridging gradually consolidates and expands west over the southeastern portion of the U.S. A positively tilted trough will be aligned from New England through the Ohio Valley and into the southern Plains beginning on Friday. At the surface, a weak cold front will be positioned near the Tennessee border back towards the lower Mississippi Valley. Eastern Kentucky will find itself in an unsettled pattern continuing into early this weekend, as troughing is maintained aloft, and the surface boundary lingers in the vicinity of the region. Model guidance has favored a slower transition to increasing 500 mb heights compared to yesterday. This will result in higher PoPs across the area through Saturday, with some locally heavy rainers still possible.

Sunday through Tuesday, more decisive ridging will build in aloft, which will limit the areal coverage of any convection. Unfortunately, this will also allow for more above normal heat and humidity, with highs returning to the mid to upper 80s, and even a some lower 90s at times. Dew points will also likely exceed 70 degrees for the majority of the period. By Wednesday, the upper level ridge may broaden and pivot enough to allow for enough passing short wave energy to drive the next surface cold front south of the Ohio River. This will bring another uptick in PoPs by Wednesday, although confidence in timing is pretty low this far out.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026

West to southwest winds will continue to subside through mid- evening, with light and variable winds through the overnight. Ceilings will gradually lower overnight and continue to do so Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms preceding a cold front will begin to work into the area around and after 06Z. PROB30 and prevailing groups are in the TAFs to highlight this threat. Flight categories will drop into MVFR from the northwest between 12z and 18z, with better chances of convection working southeast through the remainder of the forecast area after 18z. Prevailing winds will increase primarily out of the west to southwest during the daytime hours Thursday, generally at ~10 kts or less. However, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible near any stronger storms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.