textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and mainly dry weather is expected through early this evening.

- Showers are likely by late evening/tonight into Saturday, with a few thunderstorms possible.

- A stronger system brings another chance for widespread showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday, but the severe weather potential is still uncertain in Eastern Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 245 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up multiple times this morning, most recently to include some shower chances in parts of the Cumberland Basin into the headwaters of the Kentucky basin where more robust cumulus is in place and there have been some radar returns.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

Late Saturday evening there is a slight chance of lingering showers along the KY-VA-WV borders, as a system continues to depart the area. Otherwise, clearing skies under light northerly winds may result in patchy areas of fog through early Sunday morning. Temperatures will likely remain split between the cooler decoupled valleys in the upper 40s, to ridge tops in the low to mid 50s.

Some ridging will still remain across portions of the Ohio Valley through Sunday. This will lead to remaining mostly dry. Some isolated shower chances will develop along the Tennessee-Kentucky border ahead of an approaching warm front. During the day, another area of low pressure will lift north out of the Southern Plains into the Central Plains. As the system evolves, the trough becomes negatively tilted over the Mississippi Valley. The evolution of the frontal passage in respect to a potential 40-50 knot LLJ is worth watching. This could be the areas second crack at needed area wide rainfall. A series of weaker frontal passages could lead to scattered shower and storm chances Wednesday Thursday, and Friday.

Temperatures generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s through the extended period, with lows generally remaining in the 50s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026

VFR conditions should hold through the first 12 hours of the period, with some reductions in showers initially south of the TAF sites and between 00Z and 06Z as showers and isolated storms arrive from the west. Thereafter, ceilings should lower to MVFR or IFR for most locations other than near the VA border between 06Z and 12Z. With a cold front working across the area, MVFR or IFR ceilings are anticipated during the last 6 hours of the period as well.

Winds will average between south and west at 5 to 10KT with a few gusts as high as 15 to 20KT to begin the period. Wind then become light and variable through the end of the period. Some stronger gusts are possible in and around convection.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.