textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon to far northern Kentucky, then persist across the entire area through the new work week.

- The greatest rain chances are on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and the potential for multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall poses a risk for isolated flooding in this time frame.

- Hot and humid conditions escalate through the week, with widespread apparent temperatures in the mid to upper 90s likely by Thursday and Friday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 415 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026

The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered in the Great Lakes extending into the Carolinas, a shortwave trough axis from the upper MS Valley to the mid MS Valley region, an upper level ridge extending from the Southern to Central Plains and a trough over the western Conus. At the surface, a frontal zone is expected to extend from NC to WV to the Central Plains. At that point, sfc high pressure should be in place off the Southeast US Coast. Moisture will have increased to end the short term period ahead of the slow moving shortwave nearing the OH Valley with PW per the 00Z LREF mean progged in the 1.4 to 1.8 inch range or 80th to 97th percentile.

Monday to Tuesday night, the axis of upper level ridging is progged to shift to the coast of the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic States to Northeast to Quebec. At the same time, the slow moving shortwave should move slowly east across the western and Central Great Lakes and Lower OH Valley and near the Middle OH Valley, traversing eastern KY during this time. PW should peak Tuesday evening with 00Z LREF mean 1.6 eastern Pike County to 1.9 inches west. MUCAPE also per the 00Z LREF is progged to peak between 500 and 1000 J/kg on Monday and 700 to 1300 J/kg on Tuesday. Rounds of showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated with thunderstorms mainly both afternoons and evenings. Shear and storm motions will be weak generally 10KT or less both days and this combined with the potential for some locations to pick up multiple rounds of convection could result in locally heavy rainfall and instances of high water or flooding. With the increased moisture in the column and anticipated increase in cloud cover and convection diurnal ranges will be more limited than what has been observed recently.

Wednesday to Thursday night, the upper trough axis should gradually shift to the east of the eastern KY and the Appalachians with at least a period of brief height rises/shortwave ridging building into the Commonwealth for a bit during this timeframe. Also during this period, the upper level trough that will have began the period in the western Conus will have migrated into the Plains/Central Conus. Although moisture in the column will decrease somewhat, with PW dropping back to the 90th to 95th percentile or the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range, sfc dewpoints are progged in the upper 60s to lower 70s range as moisture becomes more focused in the lower levels/boundary layer. Chances for convection during these days should be highest on Wednesday with the wave gradually shifting east. The timing of height rises will determine the extent or coverage of any convection from late Wednesday evening through Thursday. Some of the guidance highs for Thursday would be too warm unless ridging suppresses convection. The current Thursday highs are more in alignment with ridging dominating. Meanwhile, the lower NBM deterministic and MOS guidance values are more reflective of a scenario with a bit greater coverage of convection. Friday to Saturday, guidance generally has the upper trough gradually working form the Central Conus into the Great Lakes to Lower OH Valley. There is run to run variability with heights across eastern KY and timing of this trough east to end the period with the recent GFS operational runs more moist than recent ECMWF runs. Convection will remain possible, especially each afternoon and evening. Both high and low temperatures should remain mild to end the week with limited diurnal ranges continuing.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mid to high level clouds will continue to stream in early this morning from the WNW. Additionally patchy fog may also develop, but should remain confined to the mainstem river valleys. Winds will be light and variable through the period, generally around 5 kts or less.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.