textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front sags into the Commonwealth today, and stalls out across southern Kentucky. This allows additional storms to potentially produce heavy rain in the Cumberland River Basin.

- A more significant cold front could produce multiple rounds of thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Those storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and excessive rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 1228 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

Just a quick refresh to the grids to incorporate the latest surface observations and current radar trends. Grids have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 810 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

Only a couple of spotty showers were occurring south of the Hal Rogers Parkway at present and based on this as well as satellite and convective allowing model trends, pops were trimmed back to slight chance in the south for the next few hours. Greater coverage of convection should still occur in southern parts of the area during peak heating.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 430 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

An upper level low and associated shortwave trough will trek into the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley Monday evening into Monday night. At the same time, a lingering boundary will lift north as a warm front as the trough begins to approach. Showers or storms may linger, mainly along the Big Sandy and southern sections of the area. Low should be mild, in the upper 60s to near 70.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the upper level low and associates shortwave trough will continue across the Great Lakes and sections of the OH Valley. An associated cold front will sweep across the central and eastern Great Lakes and also through the Ohio Valley. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. Ahead of the cold front model PWAT ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with dew points in the low 70s and temperatures in the upper 80s will all combine for hot and muggy conditions. A 30-45 kt LLJ combined with 2500-3500 MUCAPE, 0-3km SRH ranging between 150-200 m2/s2, effective shear around or in excess of 40KT, and DCAPE 700-900 J/kg suggests severe weather is possible mainly on Tuesday afternoon and evening. All hazards cannot be ruled out with any supercells in the warm sector, but supercells should be fleeting as forcing should result in one or more line segments or potential bows in the OH Valley and Appalachian region. As such the SPC has put areas near and north of the Mountain Parkway corridor in a Day 3 Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather with Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across the remainder of the CWA, highlighting at least scattered damaging wind potential. Some locations could receive multiple rounds of storms with torrential downpours and isolated instances of high water and flooding are also possible. Temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 60s to low 70s late in the night.

Wednesday the cold front should be southwest of the forecast area, however, though in northwest flow, isolated to scattered storms are possible across the Big Sandy and including the southern parts of the Licking and Cumberland River Basins. Otherwise, decreasing clouds through the day, with temperatures cooler, in the upper 70s to low 80s, under northwest winds. Cooler air continues to work in, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night.

While Thursday and Friday will remain dry under quasi-sonal flow, the next shortwave looks to come out of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest introducing shower and storms chances again for next weekend. Temperatures Thursday will be cool in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with temperatures cooling into the upper 50s to low 60s at night. Temperatures Friday and Saturday average out in the mid 80s, with temperatures cooling into the mid 60s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 815 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

A cold front has sagged to near the I-64 corridor as of issuance time. Low stratus was occurring in more northern locations and stratocu and mid level clouds further south. Reductions in this were generally in the MVFR and IFR range for much of the area. A mix of MVFR and IFR should continue near the sagging boundary for all but areas near Lake Cumberland during the first few hours of the period before daytime heating and mixing results in rising cloud bases. Around 16Z and after, prevailing VFR returns for most locations. This should be accompanied by a potential for renewed shower/thunderstorm development from near KJKL to KSJS and points south. Reductions to MVFR to IFR if not briefly lower are anticipated within this. By 00Z, the convection should wane, with some clearing late in the period that should be conducive for fog formation in many locations by 06Z. Reductions to IFR or lower are possible in this, especially south of a KIOB to KSYM line.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.