textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly to partly sunny skies, mild days, and chilly nights persist through the end of the work week.

- Light, patchy frost may develop tonight in the area's most sheltered valleys. Fog is more likely near the area's main stem rivers and lakes.

- Rain chances increase as the calendar changes to November this weekend, so interests with outdoor Halloween plans are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 314 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026

At the onset of the extended period on Wednesday, an anomalously high-amplitude upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southeast, while broad longwave troughing dominates the western CONUS. Across eastern Kentucky, 500 mb heights near 585 dam sit within the 90th to 95th climatological percentile, highlighting the unseasonable nature of this pattern. At the surface, light southeasterly winds will gradually veer to the south and southwest as high pressure shifts offshore. A passing weak shortwave aloft will bring an increase in mid-and high-level cloudiness on Wednesday, followed by clearing late in the day as the wave exits. Afternoon temperatures should warm into the lower 70s. With calm winds, dry air, and clear skies, strong nocturnal radiational cooling will support pronounced ridge-valley temperature splits Wednesday night. Sheltered valleys should dip into the low-to-mid 40s, while thermal belt ridges hold in the upper 40s, near 50F. Some patchy river valley fog should also develop.

Thursday through Friday, the upper ridge axis broadens and expands northward into the Ohio Valley, allowing deep-layer subsidence to peak and maintaining mostly clear skies. Surface high pressure will shift directly overhead across the central Appalachians, strengthening to around 1024 mb by Friday morning. Daytime warming under ample sunshine should push afternoon highs into the low to mid-70s each day - roughly 5 to 10 degrees above late-October normals.

Saturday through Monday, the upper ridge flattens into more progressive southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, strong surface high pressure holds along the East Coast through Sunday, keeping the approaching cold front stalled well to our west across the Plains and Upper Midwest. This keeps eastern Kentucky firmly in the warm sector, where persistent southerly flow will pump unseasonable moisture into the region. Precipitable water values are expected to surge into the 90th climatological percentile from November 1st onward, peaking around 1.2 to 1.3 inches on Sunday.

Subtle shortwaves rippling through the flow aloft interacting with this rich moisture will lead to rain chances starting Saturday afternoon, with precipitation chances peaking on Sunday around 60%. The front finally edges closer heading into Monday before petering out, allowing PoPs to taper down to around 20% by Monday afternoon. Highs will hold in the low-to-mid 70s Saturday, then trim back a bit for Sunday and Monday under widespread clouds and scattered rain.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026

The axis of an upper level ridge extending from the western Gulf into the OH Valley region will shift into the southeastern Conus through the period with sfc high pressure also extending across the region. This will lead to periods of high clouds crossing the area, but winds are expected to remain light. Valley fog should once again develop along the larger rivers, largest creeks, and lakes and lead to reductions to MVFR to IFR during the 04Z to 12Z period, if not locally lower reductions near 12Z. This fog could lift into and affect a couple of the TAF sites with recent guidance somewhat consistent on KSME being affected with reductions near 12Z. Based on this and persistence, opted to include a tempo group there with MVFR reductions. VFR should return areawide by 15Z as the valley fog lifts and dissipates.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.