textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered pop-up storms are possible each afternoon, with the highest probability remaining near the Tennessee border.

-Temperatures warm through next week, reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 338 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026

The long term period will open with troughing over the northeastern CONUS and a strong 500mb high centered over the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the vertically stacked low pressure system responsible for this weekends active weather pattern will have retreated to the southwest around the southern periphery of the aforementioned high, landing in the vicinity of Mississippi and Arkansas by the start of the period. At the surface, an area of high pressure will be located across the Ohio Valley with ample dry air. For Tuesday night, ideal radiative cooling conditions will allow for a mild ridge/valley temperature split, with MOS guidance suggesting temperatures will generally drop into the mid 60s for valley locations.

By midweek, the aforementioned 500 mb high will stretch eastward, with the forecast area finding itself on the eastern periphery of this ridging. Accordingly, high temperatures will rise above average on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching into the upper 80s or perhaps the low 90s. This pattern will also continue to suppress convection, even as dewpoints begin to tick up, and rain chances look to remain low across the forecast area. The potential exception is again in our far southwestern counties, where an afternoon storm or two cannot be ruled out. However, any rain chances remain dependent on the positioning of ridging over the forecast area.

Looking towards the weekend, upper level ridging will be challenged as troughing digs into the eastern CONUS. Guidance has been split regarding whether or not ridging will break down over our area going into the weekend, but the latest 00z deterministic guidance seems to be favoring the ridge breaking down locally by Sunday. NBM PoPs have attempted to average these solutions and do appear to be trending upward overall.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026

Widely ranging conditions are noted across the area at the 06Z TAF issuance, with VLIFR in low stratus and fog to VFR under clear skies. While clearing will be possible at times, fog and low clouds are generally expected to prevail through the night with MVFR/IFR or worse conditions. Fog will burn off after daybreak and sites will slowly recover to VFR by late morning. Showers and storms are forecast to redevelop Monday afternoon but mainly for KLOZ and KSME. Showers and storms could bring gusty and erratic winds; as well as, brief category reduction. Outside of convection, winds are forecast to become northeasterly at 10 kts or less during the daylight hours.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.