textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A shower and thunderstorm potential arrives to start the weekend, followed by a pattern shift that favors much above normal temperatures for early next week.

- A marginal risk for severe storms exists on Saturday in the afternoon into the evening for most of eastern Kentucky, with threats of hail and damaging wind.

UPDATE

Issued at 1148 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026

Forecast remains on track through the overnight. No substantive changes were needed.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026

Temperatures were running a few degrees cooler than previously forecast, so hourly forecast has been brought into line with the recent observations. Otherwise, forecast remains on track through tonight with temperatures dipping back into the 50s for most (some upper 40s in the cooler sheltered eastern valleys).

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 224 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026

The forecast period begins with the region under the influence of surface high pressure centered off the East Coast. The area is situated within the warm sector of a mid-latitude cyclone, following a warm front that lifted north through the region on Saturday. Within this warm sector, dry conditions are expected to persist; however, temperatures are forecast to rise significantly into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Near-record to record-breaking highs are possible Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. These temperatures will rival the standing records of 87, 88, and 88 at JKL, and 89, 90, and 90 at LOZ for each respective day. Fortunately, dew points are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 50s. Because these dew points are relatively low for such heat, the apparent temperatures may actually feel a few degrees cooler than the ambient air temperature.

A pattern shift is forecast for Tuesday afternoon as the upper-level ridge breaks down and an upper-level trough, which has been largely stationary over the central CONUS, shifts eastward. This transition will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday afternoon, with unsettled weather persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. As this active pattern takes hold, temperatures will moderate starting Wednesday, with highs falling back into the lower 80s; Thursday is expected to be the coolest day of the period. While this shift brings much-needed rainfall to alleviate ongoing drought conditions, total QPF through the period is less than one inch across eastern Kentucky. This amount will likely provide only minimal relief to the expanding precipitation deficit.

In summary, the start of the forecast period will resemble July as near-record heat builds across the area. A reprieve from the heat arrives Tuesday afternoon as a cold front slowly moves through the region, bringing periodic showers and storms. Despite the return of precipitation, this is not expected to be a drought-busting rainfall event.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast area wide through tonight. There is a risk for showers/thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions on Saturday, especially for northern locations (including KIOB and KSYM) from mid-morning on. Winds will be variable to southerly around 5 kts or less tonight, becoming southwest 5 to 10 kts during the day on Saturday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.