textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are possible into this evening, primarily south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A stalled front brings rounds of showers and possible storms tonight through Wednesday, with isolated flash flooding possible, primarily closer to the VA-KY border.

- Cooler, drier air arrives Thursday and continues into early next week, allowing for daytime highs mainly in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 600 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026

The models are in generally good agreement with a more blocky long wave pattern to be in place across the CONUS through the majority of the extended portion of the forecast. On Wednesday, an upper level ridge center will start out positioned over southeastern Ontario, while an upper level low will be seen over the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, further south, a secondary ridge center will reside over the Ark-La-Tex region. Through the end of the work week, low pressure will win out as it repositions itself towards the Eastern Seaboard. Further west, a ridge axis will become more prominent across the central CONUS, with deeper troughing ejecting in across the Pacific Northwest. By this weekend and into early next week, the upper level low will still be in place across the Eastern Seaboard, although there is more notable model spread by that time at its exact position. The ridge axis over the central CONUS will gradually pivot to the east, with the northern extent aligning more over the Great Lakes with time.

Sensible weather will feature one more day of better areal coverage of convection across eastern Kentucky on Wednesday, as the upper trough remains close. Better PWATs will be waning by this point; however, depending on how much rainfall occurs preceding this day, some locations may be a bit more primed leading into it. As such, at least isolated bouts of flash flooding can not be ruled out. Given the cloud cover and convective coverage, did lower the highs a bit under the blended guidance. This more limited diurnal range idea was kept going into Wednesday night, adjusting lows just a bit higher than the blend, as more cloud will likely hold tough, given the pattern. As the trough pulls further east on Thursday, PoPs will be even more limited and confined mainly to our far south and southeast locations. The low levels will more decisively dry out by Friday and this dry air continues to remain in place through the weekend and into early next week. This will result in pleasant conditions, with highs mainly in the 70s each day, while lows cool off to the 40s and 50s at night, with peak cooling generally looking like this weekend at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026

VFR conditions are noted across eastern Kentucky at TAF issuance after fog and low stratus impacted some of the sites this morning. Isolated convection is occurring but has not impacted TAF sites so far through the 18Z issuance. This convection is expected to become more widespread this afternoon and evening in some locations as it blossoms along/ahead the southward sagging cold front. Ended up going with predominate showers and PROB 30 for the scattered thunderstorm chances through 6Z. Otherwise, widespread low stratus and fog is expected tonight behind the boundary, along with lower shower chances. Shower/thunderstorm activity may ramp back up along the Virginia border as we head into the daytime hours Tuesday, and the boundary begins to stall in this region. Winds will generally be light and variable this afternoon, veering northerly after the front moves through this afternoon/evening, with continued light northerly flow heading through Tuesday as well. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any showers and/or thunderstorms that develop/pass through in the afternoon and evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.