textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure slowly builds into the region over the next several days, allowing drier weather to return.

- The warming trend continues today, with high temperatures gradually climbing each day through the upcoming workweek.

- Expect widespread valley lows near/below freezing through Thursday night/Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 109 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2026

At the start of the long term period, an expansive midlevel ridge will be located over the interior United States. This ridge is expected to amplify and translate eastward through Wednesday. Even as a shortwave trough progresses northeast along the periphery of the ridge on Thursday, any impacts will remain far away from eastern Kentucky; the only expected consequence is a slight flattening of the ridge, with 500 mb heights ticking down somewhat locally, although heights will still remain anomalously high for this time of year. This synoptic pattern will keep weather uneventful across the forecast area until perhaps the very end of the long term period. Late Sunday, a closed upper level low moving into the Great Lakes could bring our next chance for rain, with the NBM finally introducing mentionable PoPs into the forecast area at this time. However, there is still considerable model disagreement regarding the evolution of this feature. Deterministic guidance is split between troughing and ridging at this time, with LREF 500 mb heights showing a whopping 12 dam difference between 10th and 90th percentiles in our area on Sunday night (and with considerably higher uncertainty in the Great Lakes region, where the low would likely track). Therefore, confidence in any rain remains low for now. Instead, the main story of the long term forecast will be an extended period of dry and quiet weather.

At the surface, high pressure will dominate the forecast, with the center of the surface high just slightly to the east of the forecast area on Tuesday morning. As the midlevel ridge shifts eastward, so will the surface high, with light southerly to southwesterly winds around this feature. Temperatures will trend a little warmer each day, with highs climbing into the upper 60s and perhaps low 70s by the end of the period, substantially above average. Dewpoints will trend upward slightly as well, particularly as flow becomes more southwesterly by the weekend, although large scale moisture return is not expected. As the ridge axis moves east of the forecast area and flow becomes more southwesterly aloft, increased moisture in the atmospheric column will allow a few clouds to return to the forecast, marking a shift from "sunny" to "mostly sunny" skies, but overall moisture will still be meager and below normal into the weekend. With largely clear skies and a weak pressure gradient, notable ridge/valley temperature splits should develop each night. Although MOS guidance suggests ridges will likely remain above freezing on Tuesday night, valley locations will drop into the 20s. Looking beyond Tuesday night, lows will not be immune to the aforementioned warming trend, and minTs will generally be a degree or two warmer each night. Beyond these cool overnight temperatures, no impactful weather is expected.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1229 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2026

High pressure continues to build east through the TAF period. Biggest concern for the period remains the shallow low level moisture in the form of stratus that has been leading to some occasional MVFR cigs this afternoon. Given this did add to the IOB, LOZ and JKL TAFs given the recent trends in ceilings. The concern tonight is how much the clouds mix out or becomes stuck underneath the inversion. Given this slowed the clearing trend from the blend of models and closer to the RRFS. This will lead to a little less valley fog in the far east and perhaps more hints of MVFR clouds this evening and into early Monday morning. These clouds then look to scatter out through the morning and perhaps early afternoon in northern sites. Wind remain out of the north and generally below 10 knots.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.