textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind Advisories are in effect tonight for wind gusts over 40 mph. These winds combined with low humidity levels will keep fire danger elevated this evening.

- A line of strong to severe showers and storms will cross the area between midnight and 6 AM Monday. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible, highest risk near Lake Cumberland.

- Temperatures will crash Monday morning, turning rain showers to snow. Sudden, heavy snow squalls Monday afternoon and evening could cause hazardous travel conditions and rapid drops in visibility.

- Winter-like cold briefly returns Tuesday with highs only in the 30s before a warming trend arrives mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 825 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure moving through the southern portion of the Great Lakes. This is pushing a sharp and powerful cold front east through the Ohio Valley - poised to enter western parts of the state over the next couple of hours. Some discrete cells are developing ahead of the front and could lead to storms arriving ahead of the main boundary. Even with this, timing for storms to arrive mostly after midnight is on track. Currently, temperatures are still quite warm and well mixed - running in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid gusty southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts, dewpoints vary from the mid 50s southwest to the lower 40s in the northeast - a limiting factor in our instability ahead of the inbound cold front. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and touch up PoPs before the main line arrives per the latest CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the NPW, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 147 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

The forecast period begins with the Commonwealth situated behind a departing cold front as surface high pressure builds into the region. Lingering snow flurries remain possible through the first few hours of the period; however, as the parent surface low tracks northeast toward Hudson Bay, any remaining precipitation will taper off. Along with these isolated PoP chances, breezy conditions will persist through the early afternoon. As the upper-level trough lifts northeast and the surface pressure gradient relaxes, winds will slacken toward the late afternoon and early evening. Northwesterly flow will continue to advect a colder air mass into the area, with high temperatures struggling to reach the low to mid-30s. Overnight lows are progged to fall into the upper-teens to lower-20s. While cold, persistent cloud cover should limit the potential for significant ridge-valley temperature splits.

By Tuesday night, low-level flow will shift west-southwesterly as a clipper system dives out of the northern Rockies, leading to increasing PoPs for Wednesday. As this clipper moves through, an initial rain-snow mix is possible before thermal profiles warm sufficiently to cause a transition to all rain. With the current storm track centered over the Ohio Valley, precipitation chances remain at 20 percent or less, with the highest probabilities confined to the northern CWA. A second impulse is progged to move through the flow Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This feature is meteorologically similar to the Wednesday clipper but is displaced further north; consequently, a 20 percent PoP or less exists again mainly for the northern portion of the CWA.

Otherwise, surface high pressure builds back into the region for Friday, allowing temperatures to moderate above seasonal averages. A third passing system may bring isolated PoP chances to the region overnight Friday into Saturday morning, though current guidance keeps the bulk of this system north of the Ohio River.

The period is highlighted by the arrival of cold high pressure on Tuesday. A series of passing clippers will bring isolated rain or snow chances Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly Saturday. A warming trend will establish itself by the middle of the week, with temperatures remaining above average through the remainder of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the first ~6 hours of the TAF period, though as a low-level jet intensifies ahead of a powerful approaching cold front. A lull in the strongest winds can be expected this evening until the arrival of the cold front and its associated squall line. Isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 kts will be possible as the front marches from west to east across the area between 04 and 10Z. A rapid deterioration in ceilings will occur with and behind the squall line as a lighter stratiform rain lingers behind the boundary. After a brief break in the precipitation Monday morning, snow showers develop toward midday with organized snow squalls possible during the afternoon. Post- frontal winds will be sustained west southwest at 10 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts on Monday. Only slow improvement is expected through the rest of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for KYZ044-050-051-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083-084.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for KYZ052-085>088-104-106>120.

Winter Weather Advisory from noon Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for KYZ088-118.