textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally dry and mild weather continues through late tonight. - Breezy and rainy conditions are expected this weekend as a strong system, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaias (currently in the Gulf), moves northeast across the region.

- Southeasterly wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are expected over the higher terrain near the KY-VA border from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 820 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026

Some of the deeper southeastern valleys have decoupled and dropped into the upper 50s to around 60 degree range while ridgetop and more exposed locations were mainly in the mid to upper 60s as anticipated. Overall, the current forecast is on track with no changes needed at this juncture.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 401 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026

Our primary feature starting the long term period will continue to be the remnant low from Hurricane Isaias. The stacked low is expected to be over or near central KY around dawn on Sunday. By that time, drier air will be wrapping around and into the system's weakening circulation, with latest guidance suggesting this drier slot passing northeast over the JKL forecast area Sunday morning. Eventual details of timing, track and strength of the remnant low are not locked in, and that will determine where and when features affect us. That being the case, the POP remains elevated through the day on Sunday (even through there may very well be a break in precip for a time). Have tried to hold the highest (categorical) POP with the greater moisture still surrounding the remaining core of the system as it passes through around mid day and afternoon on Sunday. The strongest winds should be finished by Sunday, and it looks like there's a lack of deep instability. So, the character of the day appears to be showery with limited warming.

The circulation should be departing to our northeast by Sunday evening, with the back edge of the precip forecast to be over the eastern portion of the JKL forecast area by then. It will probably end during the night, but a few light showers can't be ruled out yet on Monday morning over the eastern tip of the state. Transient ridging then passes over from west to east during the day Monday, with warm air advection becoming pronounced once the low level ridging slips past by late in the day. Low level moisture (with surface dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s) is expected to linger in the wake of the tropical system, but very dry air aloft should make a comeback with the arrival of the mid-upper level ridging. This keeps us mild and dry at least into the day Tuesday.

After this point, the forecast becomes more uncertain as model discrepancies come into the picture. The uncertainties initially involve a cold front moving into the Ohio Valley from the northwest by late Tuesday, and how much southeastward progress this front eventually makes. Other issues arise with model differences in the timing/positioning of a strong upper trough expected to develop southeastward across the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS at the end of the week, and its influence on its associated cold front. The model blend represented in the forecast is very much subject to change with time.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 836 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026

At the 18Z issuance time, VFR conditions were in place across eastern Kentucky and at this point, VFR is expected to prevail through the end of the TAF period. High clouds are still expected to thicken and lower tonight into Saturday. Eventually, light rain, with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias, is expected to develop for most locations between about 12Z and 20Z. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out between 18Z and the end of the period. Additionally, variable to easterly to southeasterly winds at generally 5KT or less will intensify during the 09Z to 15Z timeframe to 5 and 10KT with gusts of 15 to 25KT. A further increase in easterly to southeasterly winds to the 7 to 15KT range with gusts as high as 20 to 30KT is anticipated thereafter.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ087- 088-118.