textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather is expected through mid week, along with a strong warming trend. Afternoon heat indices are forecast to top 100 degrees in many locations from Tuesday through Friday, with Wednesday and Thursday likely being the hottest days.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible at times from Thursday through the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 445 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026

The long wave pattern will feature amplified flow across the majority of the CONUS through early next week. Troughing will generally dominate west of the Rockies. A more anomalous ridge, initially sprawled from Kentucky through the Carolinas into Thursday, will temporarily dampen and retreat westward by early this weekend. The ridge center will then strengthen once again as it anchors over the southern Plains into early next week. This will allow for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to be subject to northwesterly flow aloft, with bouts of traversing short wave energy surfing southeast across the region. While model agreement is solid through Thursday, detail differences bring more spread regarding weather specifics by this weekend and into early next weekend.

Confidence remains high for the hot temperatures to continue across eastern Kentucky through the end of the work week. Highs will be in the mid 90s for most locations both Wednesday and Thursday, perhaps flirting with a few daily records on Wednesday. As the upper level ridge centers overhead of the Commonwealth, expect the associated subsidence to keep a lid on convection. The ridge will lose its grip by Friday, with a surface cold front approaching from the north. Rain chances will return across the area, with one more hot and humid day expected for Friday, as temperatures return to the lower 90s, coupled with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Low level northwesterly to northeasterly flow moves in this weekend, putting an end to the 90 degree days for the entire area by Sunday, with highs returning to more seasonable 80s for early September. While PoPs look to lower into early next week, given the lack of surface features, the lingering northwest flow aloft precludes going completely dry for any given period at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026

Heating has resulted in very isolated showers developing again today. They could bring extremely isolated sub-VFR conditions to a few locations this afternoon. Any showers will dissipate toward evening, leaving VFR conditions to last into the night. Valley fog will occur late tonight into Tuesday morning, especially in southeast KY, with localized IFR or worse conditions resulting. TAF sites are not expected to be affected.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.