textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is also possible through this weekend, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area through Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 659 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026

The first wave of rain, the remnants of an MCS that started off in Illinois, has made it to eastern Kentucky. Updated pops/weather a couple of times to account for the radar trends since the system was moving much faster than originally expected. Unfortunately none of the CAMs are picking up on this rainfall perfectly, though the HRRR seems to have the best initialization of all of them. Also updated pops throughout the day using the HRRR as the starting point, but expect that it will still need updating multiple times throughout the day. We have been fortunate that the storms weakened as it they moved east, so we haven't had as much rain as they did in central KY, and nothing above an SPS for storms thus far. That being said, there are some areas, specifically along the TN border and in our northern half of the CWA, that have received a pretty good amount of rainfall. This will prime soils heading into the day, making it potentially more susceptible to flooding.

In addition to the pops/weather, also loaded in the latest observations to make sure that the near term grids were on track with the current conditions. This only resulted in some minor changes. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. Thankfully, despite the changes over the last couple of hours, the SAF/radio should still be okay.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 319 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026

The long term period will open with an expansive upper level ridge over the western CONUS and Great Plains. Meanwhile, with troughing departing the northeastern CONUS and ridging pushing eastward, what remains of the low associated with this weekends rain will become cut off from general upper level flow. This low will introduce additional uncertainty into the forecast next week. In short, model guidance suggests this low will meander through the Mid South along the eastern periphery of this ridge before eventually retrograding to the southwest by midweek at the latest; however, the speed at which this system departs remains unclear, and this will have implications on the pattern for the remainder of the period.

Rain chances will continue Sunday night into Monday as the surface low initially near the KY/TN line pushes south. The highest rain chances on Monday will be in the southern portion of our forecast area closer to this low. However, with daytime heating and dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s, enough instability will be in place to support typical summertime convection. With weak flow aloft, any showers and storms that form will tend to be pulse-y in nature, and convective coverage should decline quickly after sunset. Meanwhile, with the surface low now firmly south of our area and a surface high in the Mid Atlantic, downslope surface flow should suppress dewpoints somewhat. This drier air will generally lead to decreased rain chances on Tuesday, with the best chance for storms once again in the southern portion of our forecast area; however, given the aforementioned disagreements in the upper level pattern by this point, confidence is low in PoPs at this point. Regardless, any convection that does form should again take the form of typical summertime showers and thunderstorms, and should once again dissipate with the loss of daytime heating.

Going into the middle of next week, uncertainty increases substantially as models struggle to reach any real agreement regarding the fate of the upper level low and, most importantly, the eastward extent of the upper level ridge. With such notable spread, NBM output suggests a general 20-40% chance of rain each afternoon; however, this represents a blend of very different solutions, and sensible weather impacts will require some refining once there is more model agreement. Should the upper level high push overhead, storm chances would be suppressed, and temperatures would run above average. On the other hand, should the ridge stay back over the Mountain West, typical diurnally driven convection would be more likely each afternoon, with high temperatures much closer to normal. Regardless, next weeks ridging will not last forever. By the end of the period, upper level troughing will dig south over the eastern CONUS, indicating a potential return to a more active pattern.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 208 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026

Starting off with VFR conditions at the TAF sites overnight. However, this may not last. A frontal boundary remains draped just north of the state, and will begin to finally push south after 0Z tonight, reaching eastern KY around the end of the TAF period. Due to the location of the boundary to our north, much of eastern KY continues to find itself in a warm, moist, and unstable environment. Furthermore, a broad area/system of storms is currently moving across western KY, and will make it's way into eastern KY during the morning hours today, with additional storms proceeding it's arrival in southern KY (likely affecting KSME and KLOZ). Precipitation chances will be likely in many locations off and on throughout the day, with some lulls possible in the afternoon, though exact timing of later storms and impacts are still uncertain. Expect conditions (namely VIS and CIG) to drop from VFR to IFR territory with the morning storms, and periodically throughout the period as additional showers/storms move through. Will update as needed as storms near TAF sites. Otherwise, winds should be generally light and variable throughout the period, outside of any passing storms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.