textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm today as south to southwest flow engages. However, low to very low relative humidity, dry fuels, and gusts into the 15 to 25 mph range will result in High Fire Danger.

- Significant warming occurs in the upcoming week, with the potential for several consecutive days in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s for highs, along with mild overnight lows in the 40s to lower 60s. - A trend towards a more active weather pattern is looking to take shape during the middle to second half of the work week. More significant and widespread rainfall is possible.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 603 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026

The models remain in good agreement with a transition from zonal flow to more amplified flow over the CONUS next week. Broader ridging initially over the southeastern CONUS will sharpen up as it moves over the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, troughing will evolve generally west of the Mississippi River, as increasingly stronger eastern Pacific energy moves in with time. While details on the smaller scale features remain unresolved, there remains higher confidence that a period of more unsettled weather will be in place across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys for the middle and second half of next week, along with well above normal temperatures.

Monday night, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, along with south to southwest low level flow will allow for a 10 degree plus ridge/valley split. Lows will range from the upper 40s to near 50 in the colder hollows, to around 60 on the ridges. Low level flow will shift to the southwest on Tuesday. Temperatures will soar into the lower 80s, with a few showers possible in the afternoon, as a cap likely erodes enough by peak heating.

Clouds will increase out ahead of an approaching cold front Tuesday night, with rain chances returning after midnight. This front will attempt to pass through eastern Kentucky on Wednesday, with more widespread showers and some thunderstorms expected. It is possible though that if model trends continue, there may be more of a gradient in the PoPs from northwest to southeast. Depending on the evolution of a southern stream short wave trough that will be moving from the Desert Southwest to the middle Mississippi Valley, more of a break in the rain may occur compared to what the blended PoPs currently depict across eastern Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, even more uncertainty exists, as additional short wave energy tracks across the Plains and eventually into the Mississippi Valley, with plenty of model spread in timing and amplitude. Rain chances peak as high as likely (60%) at times from Friday through Saturday across the area; however given the uncertainty in the forcing, hydro concerns continue to remain low despite the well above normal PWATs in place. Temperatures will average well above normal through Saturday, with highs in the 70s and 80s each day, and lows in the 50s and 60s each night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and will hold through the period, with just passing high and mid-level clouds, at times. Light and variable winds will become south-southwesterly to southwesterly after 14Z, with sustained winds by afternoon in the 8 to 12 kt range with gusts as high as ~20 kts. LLWS will be possible for TAF sites along and west of the escarpment (i.e., KSME, KIOB, and KSYM) as a low-level jet moves up the west side of the Cumberland Plateau - but impacts are expected to be minimal.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-080-084>088-104-106>120.

Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ079-083.