textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue at times into the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is possible through this weekend, especially through Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area through early Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 1124 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

Models are struggling with convective evolution, with processes being driven by mesoscale and weak features not resolved well. Have updated roughly the next 24 hours with a blend of latest runs, but confidence is meager.

UPDATE Issued at 544 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

A weak shortwave trough aloft is currently exiting the JKL forecast area to the east, along with its associated showers. Little is going on in its wake, with clouds and precip having prevented significant destabilization during the day and peak heating having passed. In light of that, have taken the cue from recent model runs and reduced the POP going into this evening. Latest runs suggest renewed convection overnight, especially in our southwest counties, and have skewed the forecast that direction.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 231 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

Attention in the long-term period will focus on an expansive upper high across the north-central CONUS and a cut-off low separated from the mid-latitude jet stream by this high, which will meander near the Mid-South and Lower TN Valley region Sunday into Monday before slowly retrograding westward on the south side of the ~600-dm mid- level high to the north towards midweek. Uncertainty increases mid to late next week in the strength and orientation of this high, and whether the cut-off low can find a weakness in the ridge to move back north and/or east with time, which will play a role in sky cover and PoPs for our area.

The forecast starts Sunday with the area still likely within the warm sector ahead of the mid-level low, with a surface front along or north of the Interstate 64 corridor moving west and northwest with time through Sunday night. With a humid air mass remaining in place, expect continued scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development and a continued isolated excessive rainfall and flash flood threat for most of the area, especially along and south of Interstate 64.

PWs and thus low-level moisture and instability trend lower with time Monday into Tuesday as low-level southeasterly flow and resulting downslope drying increases, with the stacked low pressure system retrograding across the Mid-South region. Thus, PoPs trend sharply lower from Monday to Tuesday. A modest increase in PoPs is then suggested by the NBM mid to late week, mainly in the form of diurnally driven convection each afternoon into early evening. PoPs will be dependent on the exact placement of the aforementioned cut- off high and trapped mid-level low and how much moisture return and instability exists across eastern Kentucky.

High temperatures to begin the period within a humid, high-PW environment will start in the lower 80s Sunday into Monday, but will trend warmer through the week as the area comes increasingly under the influence of upper ridging and humidity levels moderate with lower PoPs. Morning lows will generally not change much, but will likely be lowest Tuesday morning (mid-60s with some possibly cooler valleys) when humidity levels overall will be at their lowest level of the next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026

VFR conditions were reported across the JKL forecast area at the start of the period, with precip having ended. This is expected to carry well into the night. Won't rule out some valley fog, but it should be less prevalent than on some recent night due to less antecedent precip, and it's not been included in TAFs. However, mesoscale models are suggesting showers/thunderstorms will begin to show up from the west toward dawn. There is uncertainty about how this unfolds, but TEMPO groups with IFR conditions have been used in TAFs. There is even more uncertainty concerning the atmosphere's ability to warm and destabilize in the wake of the precip during the day Saturday, and a PROB30 group for thunderstorms was used in TAFs in the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.