textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- An arctic airmass remains in place through tonight, with temperatures around 25 degrees below normal and bitterly cold wind chills.

- Near normal, to above normal, temperatures can then be expected from Tuesday through the end of next week.

- Multiple passing systems are expected to bring mainly rain chances at times from midweek to next weekend.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 332 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025

At the onset of Tuesday, high pressure will slowly be shifting off to the east, while the next system to traverse the CONUS takes shape over Southern Manitoba. At current, this low is not expected to be of any consequence for the area, passing through the Great Lakes. By Wednesday morning, another upper level low is modeled over southern Alberta. This low ejects out of the Northwest through the Northern Plains and by Thursday morning is modeled over the Upper Mississippi Valley. The systems warm front is expected to lift northeast through the Ohio Valley, crossing portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky. A trailing cold front around the Mid Mississippi Valley will progress east through Eastern Kentucky Thursday evening and overnight. Widespread showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible with this system. Some model guidance also shows strong winds at low levels of the atmosphere and model soundings confirm this as well. At the surface, southerly winds will slowly veer to westerly through the day, with gusts as high as 20-30 mph. The LREF ensemble guidance suggests at present a 15-25% chance wind gusts could meet or exceed 25 mph. That said, it appears winds should largely remain below Wind Advisory Criteria. By Friday, the last Alberta system continues into the Northeast US, leaving Kentucky under somewhat zonal flow through Saturday. The next system around the Central Rockies could lead to the next round of precipitation Saturday evening and Sunday.

In summary, dry conditions will last through Tuesday, with a slight chance of a shower or two Wednesday, however no accumulations are expected. A potent low will move through Thursday leading to rain and some gusty conditions. Friday and the better part of Saturday look mostly dry at current before another system moves in Saturday evening through Sunday. Temperatures rise through Thursday, with strong warm air advection leading to temperatures in the upper 50s. Cold air behind the frontal passage Thursday, will lead to high temperatures Friday in the 30s, some 20 degrees colder.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 139 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025

Bands of clouds remaining northwest flow with cloud bases either in the lower end of the VFR range or in the VFR range. Satellite trends are that over the next couple of hours KSJS and KSYM will be the most likely to have MVFR or times of MVFR while the remaining sites should remain VFR. Drier air will continue to filter into the region during the first 6 to 12 hours as high pressure builds from the MS Valley and settles across eastern KY late tonight. This should result prevailing VFR other than the MVFR in spots to begin the period. Winds will be northwest to north at 5 to 10KT with gusts into the 15 to 20KT range. However, winds will become light and variable by the 00Z to 03Z as the high nears. As the high begins to depart to end the period, south to southwest winds around 5KT should develop.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106-108-111.