textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected from today through Friday. Some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a distinct potential for strong to damaging wind gusts - especially today and tonight. - Instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding - particularly today through Thursday.

- A Flood Watch is now in effect for the northeastern 2/3rds of eastern Kentucky until 8 AM EDT on Wednesday, primarily for flash flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 127 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

Convection associated with the fringes of an MCS is ongoing in the northern portion of the forecast area, although the strongest storms in this complex remain east of Kentucky. As these storms progress to the south, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been expanded to the southeast. Meanwhile, a well defined boundary associated with this activity is visible in current radar imagery and observations, with temperatures north of the boundary nearly 10 degrees cooler than to the south. In these areas, a temporary lull in activity is expected; these counties were removed from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch early. In terms of the forecast, the primary adjustment to the grids was to account for ongoing activity and the cooler/drier air behind the aforementioned boundary, including adjustments to PoPs. Otherwise, the forecast still appears on track, with the risk for severe weather/flash flooding expected to ramp up again this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 917 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

A combination of severe weather and flash flooding still remains possible today. Current radar imagery shows a complex of storms advancing south southeast through Indiana and Ohio, with our northern counties expected to be under the gun in the coming hours. The upstream environment remains very potent, with the 12Z KILN sounding showing extreme instability (with observed MUCAPE values in excess for 4700 J/kg) and DCAPE values supportive of severe wind gusts. The only limiting factor for storms presently is lingering surface stability; however, current satellite imagery shows relatively clear skies over the majority of the forecast area, and by the time this complex approaches eastern Kentucky, any remaining inhibition should be long gone. Given this environment and ongoing severe convection upstream, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for Bath, Rowan, and Fleming Counties. Although this watch was limited to just our northern counties for now, an expansion of this watch may become necessary in the coming hours, and future radar trends will bear monitoring.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the near term PoPs per the radar. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 455 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

The most current model data continues to present a pattern aloft that favors the formation of storm clusters - most of which will impinge on the weather for eastern Kentucky through the bulk of the week. Right now, SPC has continued a severe threat into Thursday for the bulk of our area. Meanwhile, WPC continues to highlight excessive rain threats through Friday - though the concern is higher for earlier in the week. Will continue to highlight this in messaging and social media. Please keep monitoring this developing, likely impactful, weather situation.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Active weather will continue in the long term period, with multiple bouts of thunderstorms probable. However, confidence in details is still very elusive.

We will start the period still under west northwest flow in the mid- upper levels, near the southern edge of faster flow, and with subtropical ridging just to our south southwest. A very warm and humid surface air mass will remain in place and give considerable instability. This completes the setup for MCSs to develop where there's enough focus from initiating features. The forecasting problems are that these features are relatively weak in the big scheme of things, and also that future convection relies in part on the evolution of difficult to forecast prior convection. Have used a broadbrushed forecast for POP through Friday based on blended models.

The GFS and ECMWF both show potential for a weak cold front to slip south southwest through the JKL forecast area by the weekend as a weak low rotates through a northeast CONUS trough and enhances the upper level flow over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Should this come to pass, there could be a break in the precip potential at the start of the weekend. Any relief from the muggy air mass would probably be minimal, as the upper troughing quickly departs and ridging builds into our area from the southwest during the weekend and supports hot and humid weather.

Models then show another impulse moving through the faster flow to our north and northeast, which suppresses the ridging back to the southwest early in the new week. This would allow another weak cold front to push in from the north with an increase in the POP in the neighborhood of Monday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026

This forecast period is going to be very complex and volatile one, as multiple Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCSs) will move through eastern KY. Between the larger rounds of showers/storms, isolated to scattered convection will also be possible. This makes for a very tricky forecast as things are constantly evolving, and models are not always initializing well - so confidence in them is not high. These thunderstorm clusters will advance through the region from north to south or northeast to southwest. Due to the wide range of solutions, the forecast still includes some generous PROB30 groups to cover the threats with more specificity hard to confidently come by, at this point. Meanwhile, away from any thunderstorms, winds will be light at less then 10 kts - generally from the south to southwest. Gusts within a thunderstorm could easily be variable at 30 kts and substantially higher if the storm is a severe one or on the leading edge of an organized storm cluster. There is also a possibility of some low level wind sheer as we head into the overnight for a few hours at namely KIOB, KSYM, and KJKL.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 069-086>088-104-106>120.