textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorm potential arrives to start the weekend, followed by a pattern shift that favors much above normal temperatures for early next week.

- A marginal to slight risk for severe storms exists this afternoon into the evening for most of eastern Kentucky, with damaging wind being the main threat.

UPDATE

Issued at 954 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Clouds are extensive over the northern portion of the forecast area and considerable convective precip has developed to the west and northwest of that area and will probably develop eastward or east southeastward today. The precip or at least debris clouds should hold temperatures back a bit, and max readings for today have been scaled back, especially for our northern counties.

UPDATE Issued at 602 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

Updated T/Td/Sky grids in the very near term based on latest observed trends. Otherwise, the more significant changes were made to PoPs this morning through tonight based on latest model data and upstream trends.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 229| AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

The long wave pattern starts off amplified, with a ridge of high pressure sprawled from the western Atlantic to central Mexico, while a positively tilted trough is aligned from Hudson Bay through the northern Rockies and off the coast of Baja California. This trough will gradually broaden and shift east with time next week, with the ridge getting shunted off to the east and southeast, leaving mainly zonal flow across the CONUS by next Friday. Well above normal temperatures will reign across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through early next week, before bouts of short wave energy and an accompanying surface frontal system sags southeast across the region, bringing a more sustained threat of daily showers and thunderstorms through the end of the upcoming work week.

Very warm weather will be on tap for eastern Kentucky through Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Have continued to stay below the blended guidance for the highs, given its warm bias as of late. Lows will be in the 60s, with modest ridge/valley splits both Sunday and Monday nights. Daily record highs at Jackson and London will be threatened on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will move towards the area on Tuesday, with increasing moisture allowing for a return of mainly diurnally driven convection. The cold front will move through the area late Wednesday, with more widespread convection expected. The front will then gradually sag further southeast with time through Friday, but enough moisture will linger to allow for some renewed diurnally driven rain chances each day, generally becoming more confined to our southeastern terrain with time. The blended guidance tends to be a bit aggressive with this type of pattern, so convective coverage may be less in reality if model trends hold.

The 90 degree weather will also be short-lived as highs retreat to the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, and then back closer to normal readings in the mid 70s for Thursday. Temperatures will then bump up a few degrees to finish out the work week, with highs returning to the upper 70s to near 80 by Friday. After the summer-like overnight lows in the 60s for early next week, minimums will return to mainly the 50s following the frontal passage late Wednesday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026

VFR conditions to begin the period will give way to the risk for showers/thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions on Saturday, especially for northern and western locations (including KIOB and KSYM) from around ~14z-16z, with improving skies and conditions from southwest to northeast. Winds will be southwest 5 to 10 kts during the day today, becoming light and variable or south at 5 kts or less. Fog will be possible tonight for those locations that see rain today, but confidence is too low to include in any TAFs at this time.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.