textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will return to areas mainly south of the Hal Rogers Parkway/Highway 80 later this evening through Monday afternoon.

- Temperatures will average within a few degrees of normal over the next week.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026

The main change to the start of the extended forecast this morning was to include more terrain details at night owing to a drier and clearer air mass. Did also include more in the way of valley fog each night. The trend for a bit more chances of showers or storms on Tuesday afternoon in the east was also noted and it makes sense given the impact of the inbound retrograding eastern 5h trough and its ample energy passing overhead. Ridging then looks to keep things dry and quiet through the end of the work week.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long-term period opens Monday morning with the 30/12z model suite in good agreement. Upper level ridging will extend northward from Texas to toward Minnesota where a col separates it from an ~585 dam high centered near/over Churchill, Manitoba. On the east side of the ridge, troughing extends from an ~540 dam low east of Labrador southwestward into the Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians. Meanwhile, on the western side of the ridge, an ~570 dam low is spinning over northwestern Montana. At the surface, a wavering frontal boundary will extend from a weak ~1013 mb surface low off Cape Cod southwest to along the Kentucky-Tennessee border and then northwest to a triple point low north of Kansas City, Missouri. Cool Canadian high pressure lies cradled north of the stalled front and is centered well to our north over the Hudson Bay.

The eastern trough will remain positively tilted as it digs southward through mid-week and eventually pinches off into a closed low over the Carolinas by around Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, the upstream 500 hPa ridge will merge with the Canadian high, briefly taking on an omega-like appearance, as it deamplifies. As a result, the wavering frontal boundary will initially linger over the Cumberland River basin for the first part of the day on Monday before making a decisive push well south of the area by Tuesday and Wednesday. In its wake, surface high pressure will drop south from the Hudson Bay to over the Great Lakes by 12Z Wednesday and over the Central Appalachians on Thursday. Meanwhile, the upper low over the northern Rockies will gradually press in from the west and open up as the upper level ridge continues to subside late week. While the specific details become less certain due to increasing model disparity, it generally appears that a surface low with this trough will pass from Central to Eastern Canada while its trailing cold front sags southward toward the Ohio Valley by the week's end, perhaps with the aid of a reinforcing Pacific shortwave trough trailing behind the remnants of the original parent low.

Aside from the threat of some rain to start the week on Monday and again on Saturday, the bulk of the week is shaping up to be fair and mild. In sensible terms, look for the threat of showers (20 to 50 percent chance) and possibly a weak thunderstorm to diminish from north to south during the afternoon on Monday -- rain chances will primarily be confined to near and south of the Mountain Parkway corridor. Fair, dry, and seasonally mild days and cool, clear nights with fog in the favored valley locales follow from Monday night through Friday. Highs will range from the mid 70s to low 80s through Wednesday, then warming into the lower and middle 80s for Thursday and Friday. Nighttime lows range from the mid 40s to mid 50s beginning Monday night and should remain at similar levels through Wednesday night before also moderating into the 50s to near 60F. Overall, it should be a great week for gardening, mowing the lawn, or making hay! Rain chances then return Friday night and Saturday with temperatures remaining at similar levels (highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows not far from 60F).

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the TAF period with high pressure generally dominating. A disturbance is expected to lead to increasing moisture from the south and west late in the period and convection could move into or develop in areas generally to the south of KSME and KLOZ. Winds through the period will be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.