textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent through at least this morning increasingly favoring southern Kentucky where heavy rain may lead to additional flash flooding.

- Much lower probabilities for showers and storms will be in place during most of the upcoming work week.

- Heat and humidity will quickly become oppressive during the new week.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the PoP and thunder grids per the current radar and CAMs guidance. We will be dropping off part of the Flash Flood Watch by the top of the hour but continuing the one for the south. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with forthcoming freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 141 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

500-mb height analysis shows high pressure building across the Tennessee Valley, with the apex of the ridge axis over the Upper Great Lakes and Southern Ontario. Further west, a fairly large upper level trough extends south into the Great Basin, with multiple embedded upper level disturbances in the flow across the Northern Rockies.

As high pressure takes hold of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, skies over Eastern Kentucky will continue clearing out heading into the overnight hours Monday. With high pressure in such a close proximity, light winds, clearing skies, and little to no pressure gradient across the forecast area will lead to good conditions for decoupling valleys, and for development. As valleys decouple, temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s, with low 70s along ridge tops. Patchy fog will mix out by mid morning before the area sees hot and muggy weather. With dew points forecasted in the 70s, along with temperatures in the low to mid 90s, diurnally driven storms may occur late in the afternoon/evening hours Tuesday through Saturday. These storms would be isolated to scattered in nature.

As briefly mentioned above, afternoon temperatures will peak in the low to mid 90s and cool into lower 70s at night. Those temperatures combined with model dewpoints remaining elevated in the upper 60s to mid 70s next week, hot and muggy conditions will also lead to Heat indices of 100F or higher Tuesday trough Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026

In general, a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are ongoing at the start of the TAF period, as the latest cluster of showers and thunderstorms is hitting the far southwest parts of the area hard. The continuation of these storms spreading a bit northeast with time is would bring MVFR or worse conditions through much of the morning, especially for terminals south of the Mountain Parkway. Gradual improvement in the conditions are still expected during the day, though shower and thunderstorm chances will linger, especially closer to the KY/TN border and KY/VA border. Later this afternoon VFR conditions are expected to return to all sites, but fog and low stratus will be a good bet later tonight returning poor aviation conditions to the area. During the period, winds, away from any storm, will be light at less than 10 kts from the southwest.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ058-068-069-079-080- 083>088-111-114>118.

Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for KYZ107>110-112-113- 119-120.