textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure brings dry and cool early autumn weather to begin the week.

- Warmer temperatures return from the middle to end of next week, along with our next reasonable potential for rain.

UPDATE

Issued at 758 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026

Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on trends in fog evident on satellite and observations. This led to no substantial change at this time. Once valley fog lifts and dissipates through around 930 to 10 AM, another day with temperatures a few degrees below normal is anticipated.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 425 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026

The start of this period will be a continuation of the pleasant weather occurring in the near term, thanks to the approaching upper ridge from the west and sfc high pressure ridge that gradually shifts east of area into midweek. This pattern will keep us dry for the first half of the week and introduce a warming trend starting Monday, with highs increasing a bit each day. Highs will get back into the 80s by Tuesday or Wednesday, initially in the more southern locations. There is some model discrepancy in what temps will be like for the second half of the week due to an approaching trough from the west. Right now it appears most likely that we will remain in the 80s each day and maybe even close to 90 in some areas if the Euro is correct. Lows should also moderate throughout the week, though the pattern favors ridge/valley temperature splits through at least Tuesday night.

The biggest uncertainty in this period is our rain chances and timing of the best chances during the second half of the week and into the weekend. Model guidance and NBM accordingly over the past couple days keeps pushing back the onset of 15 percent or greater PoPs from Wednesday to Thursday or Thursday and now trending toward Friday. This uncertainty originates from model variability in the evolution of the upper level pattern which will drive rain chances. The consensus of guidance is for the ridge axis initially west of the area at the start of the period migrate across the Commonwealth and then off to the east during the second half of the week as a trough also translates from the west coast to the central US. The trough looks to slow down or even stall as it gets into the Central US as a ridge centered near or east of the southeast U.S. coast and extending into the southeast sets up. It looks like one or more subtle shortwaves will peel off the heart of the trough in the central US and ride the edge of that southeast ridge. The trend in the delay of PoPs returning to eastern KY appears due to that strong southeast ridge. The strength and positioning of that ridge will probably result in the greatest chances of meaningful rain remaining well off to our north and west until Friday or the weekend. NBM and LREF ensemble guidance shows a 50-55% chance of >.1" of rain on Saturday and a 60-75% chance of >.1" on Sunday. These higher PoPs for the weekend have been pretty consistent over the past couple nights so it's something worth paying attention to. Now it's worth mentioning that although those higher PoPs have been consistent, the upper level pattern that will deliver the active weather has not been as consistent in the models. This will make determining how much rain and timing of that into the region very hard to ascertain at this time.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites, with just a few passing cu over KSJS over the next few hours. Winds will remain northerly at less than 10 kts before decoupling occurs around sunset. Fog development is expected in the valleys between 04Z and 13Z, with the most persistent fog lingering past 14Z in eastern valleys, although this is not expected to impact TAF sites.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.