textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue for the rest of the week, with the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening hours. - The repeated rounds of slow-moving showers and storms could yield isolated instances of flash flooding.

- Near-normal temperatures (highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s) persist through the end of the forecast period.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 505 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026

The latest model data indicates that the forecast remains on track for a rather wet start to the extended period followed by less storm coverage but also potential for organized activity as the upper levels become more favorable. The diurnal cycle should dominate the timing of the convection each day into the start of the weekend. Later, impulses aloft will have their say in initiating convection, but the timing and placement of these elements remain fraught with uncertainty.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Active weather continues into the long term period, with daily chances for showers and storms in the forecast grids. Expect the greatest precipitation coverage during the first half of the forecast period, when a more favorable troughing pattern will be in place over the Ohio River Valley and Greater Midwest. A series of shortwave impulses moving through this broader troughing will bolster late-week rain chances across the commonwealth, and recent forecast guidance suggests that a better-defined disturbance will dig into the commonwealth in the Friday to Saturday time frame. The resultant increase in forcing could allow more locations to experience measurable rainfall on these dates. Likewise, relatively higher amounts of shear could allow those week-end showers/storms to organize beyond the typical summertime pop-up archetype. However, the intensity of any late-week activity is largely conditional upon that parent disturbance aligning with the diurnal instability cycle. Such timing details remain highly uncertain, and there is not enough forecast confidence to delineate any severe weather risks in this time frame.

There is much higher confidence in the forecast for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall across portions of Eastern Kentucky through the end of the week. Highs in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the 70s will pose favorable thermodynamics for convective lift on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday afternoon. Ensemble data continues to resolve 1500-2000+ J/kg of CAPE across Eastern Kentucky during peak diurnal heating. Mean soundings around the region depict very little CIN alongside high freezing levels (above 15k feet) and cloud-layer winds in the 10-15 knot range. Given all of the above and PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range, the thunderstorms that develop later this week are poised to be slow-moving and efficient rainmakers. Even if the previously-discussed shortwave disturbances arrive at night and storms are unable to take advantage of peak diurnal instability, the repetitive rainfall could prove excessive. Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out if any given location experiences multiple downpours in the same day or if slow-moving storms track over the same places multiple days in a row. To cover this risk, WPC has delineated a series of Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlooks across the entire JKL CWA for these three days.

Forecast confidence decreases next week, but this morning's forecast guidance continued the trend towards a drier early-week forecast. The latest data collectively resolves midlevel height rises and weak quasi-zonal flow over the Ohio River Valley for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. This is in response to the amplification of a ridge across the Southwestern and Central CONUS, although there is still some uncertainty regarding its eastern extent. If a stronger ridge emerges, temperatures could bump up in our forecast area. For now though, the forecast calls for climatologically appropriate thermometer readings. Expect highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows in the 60s/near 70s, albeit with less moisture than earlier in the period. Ensemble mean PWATs decrease to between 1.4-1.6" next week, largely due to the advection of a drier continental airmass in the midlevels. The late-period PoPs are largely modulated by the diurnal heating cycle. There could still be isolated to scattered summertime pop-ups, but barring any ridge-riding shortwave support, the late- period showers and storms should be fairly mundane. In short, the forecast area is in store for typical summertime sensible weather next week.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026

Isolated showers will continue to wind down through the early morning hours, with activity too isolated to include in any of the TAFs. Fog can be anticipated once more in the valleys through the rest of the night, but is not expected to impact any of the TAF sites. A similar situation will be on tap for today as we saw on Tuesday concerning the convective trends. Look for diurnal CU developing then showers and thunderstorms taking shape during the afternoon/evening hours. The main difference is that we expect the PoPs to be more expansive across most of eastern KY during the afternoon, including all of the TAF terminals. Opted to continue PROB30s for this convective potential starting at around 18Z and continuing until about 23Z. Light and variable winds into dawn will begin to trend more from the southwest by 15Z, but remain well below 10 kts. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near any storms, however.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.