textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for widespread showers and possible storms will continue today before winding down this evening.

- Some of the storms could be strong in the far east with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main concern.

- This additional convection will bring some more highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once the frontal boundary finally clears the area late this week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored along with a chance for frost over the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 244 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026

The start of this period will be characterized by troughing over the Great Lakes region, with ridging farther south over Mexico. This weekend into early next week, an upper-level low will track inward from the Pacific, eventually breaking down the southern ridge; this will give way to broad troughing over the entire eastern CONUS until nearly the end of the period. This pattern will enable multiple impulses to influence our weather; the first impactful shortwave will support a surface cyclone as it translates into the Ohio Valley on Friday. A weak and poorly defined cold front associated with this cyclone will deliver a glancing blow to the northern portion of the forecast area as this system passes, although it appears that the majority of precipitation will stay north of our forecast area at this time. Farther south, another surface low will be translating across the southeastern US, with the NBM introducing PoPs to the southeastern portion of our CWA on Saturday. Compared to yesterday, the track of this low has trended farther south, and the latest runs of both the ECMWF and GFS keep this low closer to the Gulf Coast before it moves into the Atlantic. This track would favor rain narrowly missing southeastern Kentucky; however, trends will need to be monitored. Given the uncertainty with the track of this low, I have opted to keep NBM PoPs for now, but with recent model runs backing away from a wetter solution, confidence in rain on Saturday is currently low.

Irrespective of rain, the main story looking into early May will be below-average temperatures and the return of frost chances. On Friday night, temperatures may fall into the 30s in some portions of our area. Overnight cloud cover will be a key factor in determining how cold it gets on Saturday morning; this itself will largely depend on the track and timing of the aforementioned southern and northern systems. As of now, the NBM keeps extensive cloud cover in our area overnight, a solution that is supported by indications that moisture will likely linger in our area overnight; however, should the front clear our area quickly and the southward trend of the southeastern US low continue, it is possible that skies clear out enough to allow temperatures to fall a few degrees cooler than the current forecast. Regardless, high pressure will begin to build behind this activity on Saturday. With northerly winds dominating following the frontal passage, this looks to be the coldest day of the period. Overnight, clearing skies and diminishing winds will create ideal conditions for decoupling, which will allow temperatures to plummet in valleys. Additionally, MOS guidance continues to show a signal that temperatures in some sheltered valley locations may fall to near freezing overnight. Thus, frost risk will be high on Saturday night/Sunday morning, with another day of unseasonably cool weather expected on Sunday.

Looking ahead, the next chance for rain in eastern Kentucky seems to be on Monday. The details of next weeks upper-level pattern remain highly dependent on how the Pacific low interacts with eastern CONUS troughing; however, it is likely that multiple impulses associated with this troughing will allow for periods of precipitation early next week. At the surface, high pressure will exit our area on Monday, with another low pressure system tracking over the Great Lakes/Southern Canada region. Ahead of this low, southwesterly winds will keep temperatures a little warmer for Monday, with modest moisture return expected. Beyond this general pattern, there is limited agreement regarding the positioning and timing of these features next week, so confidence in specific rain chances on any given day remains low, but an unsettled pattern will be favored through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026

A combination of MVFR and VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this issuance. However, a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms have developed along a cold front that's presently moving into the JKL CWA. Over the next few hours, those showers will gradually move across the area bringing categorical reductions to all TAF sites. Once the front crosses, TAFs will slowly start to improve to VFR but low-level clouds will remain overhead. Winds are forecast to start out of the southwest but will quickly turn to the northwest behind the front and diminish toward the overnight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.