textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue this evening and overnight, posing a low-end risk for heavy rainfall and isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

- A cold front approaches the area from the north early tomorrow morning, but stalls out across Southern Kentucky tomorrow. This allows additional storms to produce heavy rain in the Cumberland River Basin tomorrow.

- A more significant cold front could produce multiple rounds of thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Those storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and excessive rainfall.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 353 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026

As high pressure tries to build into the area Monday an upper level low will dig into the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Showers or storms are possible from Irvine to Jackson to Pikeville and areas south, with chances increasing along the TN/KY border, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds can be expected with dry conditions and temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Monday evening, temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 60s to near 70.

Tuesday, the upper level low will continue across the Great Lakes as the systems cold front will extend southwest through the Ohio Valley into the Central Plains. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. Ahead of the cold front model PWAT ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with dew points in the low 70s and temperatures in the upper 80s will all combine for hot and muggy conditions. A 30-45 kt LLJ combined with 2500-3500 MUCAPE, 0- 3km SRH ranging between 150-200 m2/s2, and DCAPE 700-900 J/kg suggests severe weather is possible Tuesday afternoon. As such the SPC has put areas north of the Hal Rogers/ Kentucky Highway 80 corridor in a Day 5 Slight Risk for severe weather, highlighting at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential. Temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday the cold front should be southwest of the forecast area, however, isolated to scattered storms are possible across the Big Sandy and including the southern parts of the Licking and Cumberland River Basins. Otherwise, decreasing clouds through the day, with temperatures cooler, in the upper 70s to low 80s, under northwest winds. Cooler air continues to work in, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night.

While Thursday and Friday will remain dry under quasi-sonal flow, the next shortwave looks to come out of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest introducing shower and storms chances again for next weekend. Temperatures Thursday will be cool in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with temperatures cooling into the upper 50s to low 60s at night. Temperatures Friday and Saturday average out in the mid 80s, with temperatures cooling into the mid 60s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

As of the 18z TAF issuance time, some low clouds are still lingering at eastern terminals in the wake of early day convection. These should mix out and give way to a prevailing afternoon cu field soon, but additional convection is firing near western terminals. Rounds of scattered showers and storms will continue this afternoon and into the evening before a cold front approaches from the north and yields a more organized line of southward moving convection. The scattered warm sector convection has generally been handled with Prob30s, aside from a few near- term tempos where showers and storms are more imminent. The main line of activity has more confidence regarding timing, and thus has been handled with TEMPOs. Any storms that affect a terminal will produce heavy precipitation and bring about brief periods of MVFR or worse vsby/ceiling reductions. The strongest storms could produce erratic wind gusts over 30KT. In the wake of this activity, low stratus and/or patchy fog could develop overnight. This is most likely to affect northern and ridgetop terminal sites. Breezy westerly winds should gradually veer towards a more northwesterly orientation at northern terminals tomorrow morning, which will help scatter out the cloud deck after sunrise. Across the south, breezy westerly winds and additional rounds of convection are likely again tomorrow, with similar aviation impacts possible.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.