textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain associated with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will affect most of the area at times into Sunday evening.

- A few wind gusts near 40 mph will be possible across high terrain near the VA border into this evening.

- Warm and mainly dry weather will dominate the early part of the new work week.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 349 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026

The extended period opens Monday morning with the remnant low from Isaias departing the area towards the northeast into the coastal Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England. A few residual light showers across the far eastern fringes of the Jackson CWA early Monday morning gives way to a strong upper-level ridge. An unseasonably warm and dry start to the extended forecast period across eastern Kentucky will yield to an active weather pattern by mid-week, marked by a strong cold front, rising precipitation chances, and a sharp autumn cool- down for the weekend.

The strong upper-level ridge centered across the Central US and Ohio Valley, keeps eastern Kentucky under subsidence with decreasing clouds through the day. 500 mb heights running in the 80th to 95th percentile for mid-October will push daytime temperatures well above seasonal normals through Thursday, generally ranging 5 to 10 degrees above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s. Tuesdays forecast high temperature of 82 at the JKL airport is within 2 degrees of the established record high of 84, set back in 1985. In fact, the 00Z LREF ensemble shows a 35 to 40 percent chance of reaching 84 degrees.

Model soundings from Monday and Tuesday afternoons show steep low-level lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb with a pronounced dry layer above the boundary layer. To account for this boundary layer mixing, raw model guidance was blended with the deterministic NBM to slightly lower dew points both afternoons. Through the day Tuesday, the pressure gradient across the area increases ahead of an approaching system from the Central Plains. This increased gradient could lead to breezy conditions in the Bluegrass and areas along and west of I-75 Tuesday afternoon, where wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph are possible. While warm, dry, and a little breezy, fire weather should not be of too much concern as min RH remains in the upper 30s to mid 40s through the day.

High pressure anchored off the Southeast coast will maintain warm advection through mid-week. However, a weak surface boundary sagging south across the Ohio Valley will bring low-end rain chances to eastern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A more significant pattern shift occurs Thursday as a cut-off low over the Four Corners ejects northeastward toward the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. As the boundary lifts back north as a warm front, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will tap directly into Gulf moisture, advecting some across the Commonwealth. Model and ensemble agreement begins to drop toward the second half of the extended period. It will be interesting to see how this cutoff low from the Four Corners interacts with the northern stream as it approaches the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday onward. Due to the uncertainty, the NBM deterministic has maintained smoothed-out isolated to scattered PoPs across the area Thursday and Friday. Some ensembles are showing PWATs across eastern Kentucky climbing from around 1.0 inch early Thursday to 1.4 inches by Thursday evening and Friday morning - representing an anomalous moisture plume near the 90th percentile for mid- October. While the present forecast doesn't have heavy rainfall due to model uncertainty, the anomalous moisture plume in some ensembles hints that heavy rainfall near the end of the week remains a possibility.

A cold front associated with this late-week system could pass through eastern Kentucky during the day Friday. Behind the front, cold, dry continental polar air is modeled to intrude into the Ohio Valley Friday evening and Saturday. PWAT steadily falls through Saturday, modeled by some as low as 0.2 to 0.4 inches. Temperatures that were once 5 to 10 degrees above normal could swing 5 to 10 degrees below normal by next Saturday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026

Rain was falling over most of the JKL forecast area at the start of the period, but conditions varied greatly. Northern locations (from around I-64 northward) where rain had most recently started were fairing the best, with largely VFR conditions holding on. A mix of MVFR and some IFR were more common further south, where rain has been occurring longer. Easterly winds were gusting around 20 kts in many places in south central and southeast KY. Just to the north of the gusty winds, strong winds off the surface were potentially bringing low level wind shear.

The active weather is due to the remains of Hurricane Isaias moving northeast toward the area. It will pass over or just to the southeast late tonight and early Sunday. This will give a continuation of showers much of the time. As it approaches, moistening from showers will battle against drying from east or southeast downslope flow. This will result in a mix of varying conditions. Winds mas also become gusty for a time near and west of the western edge of the foothills for locations further north this afternoon and early evening. As flow eases tonight any gustiness will subside, it will be easier for low clouds to develop and persist. This will lead to MVFR and IFR conditions area wide which last through the end of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ087-088-118.