textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A major pattern change begins tonight, with a much colder air mass gradually working its way into Eastern Kentucky. - Showery weather returns this evening, then lingers through Saturday morning as the cold air advection regime persists.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday/early Saturday, with minor accumulations primarily confined to the higher terrain locales along the Virginia state line.

- Dry weather with a slow warming trend is expected next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1032 PM EST WED NOV 11 2026

With clouds increasing from the west, valley temperatures should level off if not rise back toward the 50 degree mark as an area of convection approaches from the west. There is a decent amount of 0-6km bulk shear, but instability is limited with MUCAPE only on the order of 100 to 200 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis in the warm advection regime. The early evening decoupling in the east suggests the convection may or should be elevated as it moves east. However, recent wind gusts have been measured in the 30 to 40 mph range in central KY and have opted to issue an SPS as the storms move into the CWA. Trends will be monitored as strong storms may remain possible for the next couple of hours.

UPDATE Issued at 705 PM EST WED NOV 11 2026

With skies clear or mostly clear across most of the area at this point, especially east of I-75, deeper more sheltered valley locations and low lying areas have decoupled and cooled off into the upper 40s to low 50s. Hourly grids were updated to account for this initial drop off. However, as cloud increase and showers move across the area later this evening and into the overnight, temperatures in these locations should at least cool much more quickly or hold steady if not rebound a few degrees warmer.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 328 PM EST WED NOV 11 2026

The beginning of the long term period will be characterized by deep 500 mb troughing over the eastern CONUS; meanwhile, an amplified 500 mb ridge will be centered over the High Plains, with a closed upper level low farther west off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Multiple impulses embedded within the broader eastern CONUS troughing will continue to support a more active weather pattern locally. At the surface, flow around a relatively deep surface low to the northeast and a surface high over western Ontario will support northwesterly winds, a typical upslope pattern.

Given this pattern, the environment will be supportive of scattered precipitation across the forecast area on Friday. Largely northerly to northwesterly flow just above the surface will work to advect additional moisture from the Great Lakes into eastern Kentucky, although there is still uncertainty regarding the location of the best moisture; should low level flow be closer to northerly, the most concentrated moisture from Lake Michigan could end up west of the forecast area, only being pulled into eastern Kentucky as the system lifts northeast, with the most widespread moisture entering our area in a diffuse plume originating from Lake Huron. Meanwhile, more northwesterly flow could provide a more efficient and typical Lake Michigan moisture fetch, resulting in better moisture overall. This will have implications for instability locally, with deterministic soundings across the forecast area showing a skinny but nonzero CAPE profile generally concentrated in the 0 to -10C layer, indicating Friday's activity will likely be convective in nature. Even a few degree shift in dewpoints (well within the margin of uncertainty according to the latest ensemble guidance) could alter this CAPE profile, which itself could influence the ceiling of shower intensity. Regardless, low level moisture should be adequate for at least some upslope precipitation, and additional shortwaves should provide enough lift for scattered showers.

Unfortunately, thermodynamics are quite marginal for a rain/snow mix in most lower elevation locations, introducing forecast uncertainty regarding precipitation type. Temperatures aloft will be cool, with guidance indicating 850 mb temperatures will generally be in the range of -4C to -5C. Meanwhile, at the surface, REFS mean wet bulb temperatures are generally in the 34-36F range on Friday afternoon, with deterministic soundings indicating rain will likely be the primary precipitation type in these regions. Even so, it is worth noting that these wet bulb temperatures are marginal for a rain/snow mix, and the aforementioned uncertainty regarding moisture quality will also inherently introduce wet bulb temperature uncertainty. Should a "higher" instability solution materialize, bursts of more intense shower activity could introduce additional dynamic cooling in the column, allowing for more of a localized rain/snow mix. Given the potential for this cooling, in addition to expected scattered precipitation, temperatures were nudged down on Friday, with a slight chance for a rain/snow mix introduced across the forecast area; however, this snow potential remains highly conditional, and any breaks in clouds could allow for diurnal heating that could work to offset cooling, again favoring rain. Thus, expect rain to be the dominant precipitation type in valley locations, and even if snow does fall, warm ground temperatures should prevent notable accumulations. On the highest terrain (particularly Black and Pine Mountains), cooler temperatures will allow for a less ambiguous precipitation type, with snow being favored. Again, soil temperatures should inhibit significant accumulations, although measurable snow is likely at the highest elevations.

Looking into the weekend and beyond, a quieter pattern will set in. Upslope precipitation could linger over southeastern Kentucky into Saturday as northwest flow continues; however, aloft, the synoptic pattern will become significantly less active. The initial trough will begin to shift eastward, with intense height rises across the forecast area on Saturday; meanwhile, the upper level low initially located off the Pacific Northwest coast will force ridging farther east into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure over the Midwest and the eastward translation of the New England low will allow winds to gradually become more northerly and eventually northeasterly by Sunday, marking an end to our upslope regime. Temperatures will still be cool, albeit with a warming trend next week, which should see highs rise from the 40s this weekend to the upper 50s by Wednesday. Nights will be the coolest of the season thus far, with temperatures falling into the mid 20s in some valley locations. Despite the cold, weather will be pleasant, with high pressure dominating and plenty of sunshine expected.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 724 PM EST WED NOV 11 2026

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at issuance time. Skies were clear in eastern parts of the area, while some low to mid level clouds have developed and moved into areas near and west of the I-75 corridor downstream of convection in IN and western portions of the Commonwealth. A round of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, is expected to move through the area this evening/overnight, generally after 02Z, ahead of a cold front. Some brief reductions to MVFR may occur in this convection. Lowering prevailing ceilings to MVFR and possibly IFR is anticipated between 06Z and 12Z as a secondary cold front crosses the area and additional shower activity is possible. Reductions to MVFR or IFR should prevail to begin the last 12 hours of the period, with a trend of improvements to MVFR in the southeast and the potential for VFR west to end the period. Scattered showers are probable to return during peak heating ahead of a disturbance. Winds will average 10KT or less generally from the south to southwest through about 04Z, with winds trending westerly thereafter and then northwesterly around or after 12Z. A few gusts of 20 KT or more cannot be completely ruled out in convection early in the period. Though thunder is possible between about 02Z and 06Z, probabilities and confidence in it occurring at a station were too low to put in any particular TAF at this juncture.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.