textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Despite a chilly start to the day, today, near normal, to above normal, temperatures will be the rule through the end of the week. The exception will be Friday being colder than normal in the wake of a cold front.

- Multiple weather systems are on track to bring mainly rain chances to the area from late Wednesday into early Friday, and again Saturday night into early next week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 149 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025

The long-term period begins Wednesday evening with warm advection steadily increasing into Thursday ahead of an amplifying upper trough ejecting out of the Northern Rockies into the central CONUS. Rain chances increase through the day Thursday, peaking Thursday evening as precipitable water values of over 1.00" are advected north from the Gulf within a strong low-level southerly jet stream. QPF values from this system range from near one-half inch in the far eastern part of our forecast in the rain shadow of Pine and Black Mountains to approaching 1 inch from near the Interstate 75 corridor and points west. Though a soaking rain is expected, the progressive nature of this system should prevent any high water issues from developing.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will rapidly drop into the 20s to lower 30s, with any rain possibly changing to snow briefly before ending late Thursday night into early Friday morning. With cold advection continuing through the day Friday, temperatures will recover very little, likely only reaching the lower to mid 30s for highs.

A zonal progressive pattern is then expected to continue from Saturday into at least early next week, with increasing uncertainty with regards to the timing of systems. Will thus carry chance PoPs for pretty much every period through the rest of the long-term from Saturday night through Monday night across eastern Kentucky, with highest PoPs late Sunday where there is somewhat better agreement amongst the global models and ensemble systems. Highs and lows will oscillate around or slightly above normal during this time period overall with the zonal pattern ushering a Pacific air mass across much of the country.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2025

VFR conditions will hold through the period with primarily just high clouds passing overhead from time to time. We will have a west-southwesterly low-level jet around through the early morning hours keeping LLWS in the SME and SYM TAFs through dawn. Surface winds are expected to remain light and variable, but southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts will be possible in the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.