textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid weather will persist this weekend, with all of the area expecting showers and thunderstorms at some point.

- Some thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds this afternoon into tonight. Additional storms with locally heavy rain are possible on Sunday.

- A more significant cold front should bring more showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, with storms capable of heavy rain and strong to damaging wind gusts.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026

Sunday evening, some showers and storms may linger along and south of the Hal Rogers/Kentucky Highway 80 corridor. This is subject to models correctly resolving a cold frontal position across the CWA. To the west, high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, while a secondary upper level low, originating out of ALberta, is expected to progress across Southern Canada.

For sensible weather, expect showers and storms should be tapering off heading into late Sunday evening. Clearing skies and light winds will allow for patchy fog to develop and temperatures to drop into the mid 60s. Following the anticipated rainfall over the weekend, some of this fog could become dense in the valleys.

As high pressure briefly noses into portions of the OH Valley on Monday, though a secondary upper level low/trough will gradually move across sections of the the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. A stray shower or storm is possible, particularly in the south, during peak heating as the previously mentioned boundary remains in the vicinity. Otherwise, on Monday, mostly sunny skies and drier conditions are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Monday night, temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 60s to near 70.

Tuesday and Tuesday night, the upper level low/trough will continue across the Great Lakes as an associated cold front drops across the Ohio Valley and parts of the Plains. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 80s to around 90. Ahead of the cold front, model PWAT ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with dew points in the low 70s and temperatures in the upper 80s will all combine for warm and muggy conditions. A 40 kt LLJ combined with 1500-2500 MUCAPE, 0-3km SRH ranging between 150-250 m2/s2, and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg suggests severe weather is possible Tuesday afternoon. A line segment or line segments along or in advance of the cold front may evolve from Tuesday into Tuesday evening and move into eastern KY. As such the SPC has put the northern two thirds of the CWA (Hal Rogers Pkwy/KY 80 and north) in a Day 4 Slight Risk for severe weather, highlighting at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential. Temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday the cold front should finally be south to southwest of the forecast area, however, a passing disturbance may result in isolated to scattered storms across the Big Sandy and including the southern parts of the Licking, Kentucky and Cumberland River Basins. Otherwise, a trend of decreasing clouds is forecast through the day, with temperatures cooler, mainly in the low to mid 80s, under northwest winds. Cooler air continues to work in, with lows in the lower 60s if not some upper 50s for Wednesday night.

While Thursday and Friday currently appear dry, the next shortwave looks to come out of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest potentially in time for next weekend. Temperatures Thursday will be on the order of 5 to 10 degrees below normal, in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with temperatures cooling into the low 60s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 825 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026

Some fog and low stratus lingered at issuance time, with IFR or lower ceilings initially at KJKL and KLOZ and likely near KSME as well. The fog and low stratus should lift during the first hour or two of the period and TEMPO was used at KJKL and KLOZ initially for the IFR or lower Ceilings. A disturbance passing the area during the first 6 hours of the period may result in isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible during peak heating from the afternoon and lingering late into the evening or night as a cold front approaches. Any storms will bring a period of MVFR to IFR reductions if not lower reductions and the stronger storms could produce wind gusts over 30KT. Otherwise, outside of any storms, winds will remain less than 10KT.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.