textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot summer weather continues Thursday, with widespread heat indices in the 90s. A few locations may experience maximum heat indices around 100 degrees during the afternoon.

- Chances for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday across the southwestern half of the area.

- Shower and storm chances increase this weekend as high temperatures return to near-normal values in the 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky in conjunction with an upper level ridge above the area. This is working to clear the skies and keeping the winds light to calm. Expect a small ridge to valley split to develop later tonight along with areas of fog - becoming locally dense in the valleys. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 80s most places. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are generally in the increasingly muggy low to mid 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 348 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Subtropical ridging aloft will extend from the Atlantic westward into the southeast CONUS at the start of the period, but it will be in an ongoing weakening trend. Deep moisture pivoting around the southwestern side of the weakening ridge will arrive in our area from the west on Friday and Friday night as a weak upper level wave approaches from the west northwest on the southwest side of a strengthening northeast CONUS trough. Our low level flow will also be picking up out of the west southwest, providing low level moisture transport. These factors all lead to an increasing potential for showers/thunderstorms as we move into the weekend, with additional peaks due to diurnal heating/destabilization occurring during the afternoon and early evening hours on Friday and Saturday. In association with the northeast CONUS trough, models now are offering a little bit stronger cold front arriving from the north on Saturday night and Sunday as compared to 24 hours ago. This could keep a higher POP ongoing into Sunday, but should the front pass cleanly, it would also allow for more of a drop in POP from Sunday night into Monday as the aforementioned wave departs and subtle geopotential height rises occur.

Another wave is expected to rotate through the upper trough and support a more significant cold front to approach on Tuesday and move through Tuesday night. Another increase in POP would be expected with this, followed by the arrival of lower dew points and probably dry weather on Wednesday after fropa.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the TAF sites at the 06Z TAF issuance. Valley fog is once again anticipated to develop overnight, with reductions most likely at KSME. KSJS, KLOZ, and KSYM could also see brief reductions to MVFR vsbys from patchier fog. Expect fog to mix out by mid-morning and give way to another day of cumulus clouds in the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase at southwest terminals later in the afternoon, particularly near SME. Winds will remain generally light and variable for the duration of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.