textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible through this evening.

- A Flood Watch is in effect through this evening, mainly east of I-75. Torrential downpours on saturated ground pose a risk for isolated flash flooding.

- Mainly dry weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday, before another cold front brings a return of thunderstorms Wednesday night or Thursday.

- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather is expected for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 752 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026

What appear to be the back edge of this evening's precip (actually post frontal) is over our northwest counties. Have tried to time this ending southeastward.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 444 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026

The long-term period will begin Wednesday, with more zonal flow aloft across the Ohio Valley, but changes are on the horizon. This comes as an upper-level ridge amplifies out in the western CONUS while the eastern CONUS trough digs southward. Wednesday looks to stay largely dry across eastern Kentucky, as a cold front slowly works southward across the Ohio Valley. However, by Wednesday night this boundary will sag closer to the area and shortwaves riding through the broader flow will aid in forcing convection. This will lead to an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night, with chances peaking in the 40 to 50 percent range mainly north of I-64 and lesser chances toward the Virginia border. The chance of showers and thunderstorms then increases further Thursday, as the frontal boundary sags deeper into Kentucky and a more pronounced shortwave arrives. There is a decent surge of moisture noted with the boundary, with PWAT values generally in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range, but the overall movement of this activity is expected to be more progressive. Even so, if you can get multiple rounds of convection we could see at least some minor flooding issues, and WPC does have us in a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for Thursday into Thursday night. There is at least some question on the potential for a few stronger storms, with MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range and effective shear in the 30-40 kt range. This is a reasonable enough parameter space to aid in organizing convection, with the main risk being strong wind gusts. This comes as DCAPE values rise to around 1000 J/kg Thursday afternoon. By the end of the week, this boundary is expected to slowly sink southward. There is some uncertainty as to how far, but enough to keep rain chances lower for Friday and Saturday, generally in the chance range. Then by the late weekend into early next week there remains at least some model uncertainty with regard to the depth of the eastern CONUS trough. Some guidance shows a cutoff upper low developing further south across the northern Ohio Valley, which could certainly lead to more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity if realized especially on Sunday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persisted over far eastern KY at TAF issuance. However, a cold front is already partially through the area from NW to SE, and the last of the showers (post frontal) look to be moving southeast into the area now. The lingering precip will bring isolated sub-VFR conditions this evening. Behind this, fog and low clouds are forecast to develop overnight and bring IFR or worse conditions to most of the area, persisting into Tuesday morning. Improvement back to VFR is forecast during the day Tuesday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-080-086>088-104-106>120.