textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A more active weather pattern will set up this week, with multiple chances for widespread showers and storms from tonight through Wednesday.

- Severe weather potential remains shrouded in forecast uncertainty here in Eastern Kentucky, but a stronger line of storms is expected to approach the I-75 corridor early on Tuesday morning.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible later on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, and these will bring highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once a frontal boundary finally clears the area late next week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 346 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026

As the long term period opens on Wednesday, a shortwave rotating along the base of the trough over the central CONUS will nudge a deepening surface low to the northeast into the Ohio River region. This will finally force the previously stalled cold front through our area on Wednesday afternoon, triggering another round of showers and thunderstorms. The environment preceding this cold front will heavily depend on the evolution of Tuesdays convection; however, current model consensus suggests that very moist low levels will maintain cloud cover ahead of the cold front on Wednesday. As a result, full destabilization appears unlikely at this time. However, eastern Kentucky will be located beneath an upper level jet streak, providing ample shear (EBWD of 35-45 kts) for convective organization in the event that instability is high enough for robust updraft development. Given this setup, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for far eastern Kentucky, where the frontal passage is most likely to coincide with peak diurnal instability. Machine learning guidance remains rather unenthused about this severe threat, and given questions regarding destabilization, this seems appropriate. Regardless, Wednesday looks to bring another round of measurable rain to much of the area; LREF guidance indicates at least a quarter-inch of rain is likely in our easternmost counties (70-80% chance), and this is without factoring in convection-allowing models. This additional round of rainfall should help to put a dent in our drought conditions before lingering showers exit the forecast area overnight.

Following Wednesdays frontal passage, dry conditions should prevail through Thursday. However, model guidance begins to diverge by Friday afternoon into Saturday. The GFS shows a wave rotating into our area, which would trigger widespread precipitation; in contrast, the ECMWF is less aggressive with this energy, keeping PoPs low for eastern Kentucky. To account for this spread, the NBM has attempted to provide a middle ground of low PoPs across the area on Friday into Saturday. However, actual rain chances depend on the evolution of the upper air pattern, which remains highly uncertain this far out. Regardless, more tranquil weather is expected to return Sunday and persist throughout the remainder of the period.

Beyond precipitation, Wednesdays frontal passage will also usher in unseasonably cool weather for the remainder of the forecast period. This change could prove problematic for any sensitive vegetation, as this pattern supports several opportunities for frost. The first period of concern will be on Thursday night, when the combination of clear skies, light winds, and temperatures falling into the 30s in sheltered hollows could lead to isolated frost formation. Another low confidence frost threat exists on Friday night; however, this remains highly dependent on the progression of the aforementioned wave. In a more aggressive solution, clouds cover and moisture would mitigate frost risk, while a less aggressive solution would favor clearer and drier weather that would once again enable frost formation in sheltered hollows. Regardless, the highest chance for frost formation will occur on Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure builds, clear skies and calm winds should allow temperatures to plummet into the 30s, with decoupled valleys seeing the coolest temperatures. Consequently, agricultural interests are advised to remain weather aware throughout the end of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026

VFR TAFs are largely forecast through the rest of the afternoon and early overnight with southwest winds. Sustained south- southwesterly winds from 7 to 10 knots and gusts upwards to 20 knots are possible through the early overnight. As a cold front approaches the area late tonight, increasing convective winds and increasing chances for showers and storms are expected. The forecast line of storms is expected to arrive in the west approximately 4-5Z and quickly track eastward through the morning. Low-end VFR to high end MVFR conditions are expected through the morning with a little improvement late Tuesday morning. The bulk of the precipitation activity will wane after 12Z. Winds will remain gusty but shift from the south to the west post-frontal. Shower and storm chances are forecast to increase again toward the end of the period; therefore, added a PROB30 to KIOB to represent this increased probability.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.