textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the week.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times into the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is possible through the first half of this weekend, especially Friday and Saturday, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch has been issued for increased flash flood potential across the area from Thursday afternoon through early Sunday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 703 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

Have incorporated latest radar and mesoscale model trends into the forecast, giving a more notable drop off in convection midway through the night.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

At the onset of the extended, two shortwaves will be in close proximity of one another, the first over southern Indiana and Western Kentucky, the other being just west over the South Dakota/Nebraska area. In addition to these two features, split flow remains over Western CONUS, with a trough off the coast of British Columbia, and a ridge of high pressure over Southern California. Through Saturday, the two shortwaves phase into a more defined positively tilted trough across the Ohio Valley, while high pressure builds across the Plains.

For sensible weather across Eastern Kentucky, showers and thunderstorm will be possible Friday through Monday, with a cold front moving through the area during the day Sunday. While shower and storms chances remain Monday, they will be more isolated to scattered compared to the numerous showers and thunderstorms that are expected Friday and Saturday. ECMWF Mean PWATs, continue to show model output falling around the 90th percentile of climatological normals from Friday through the Saturday with PWATs ranging from 1.90-2.10 inches. Showers and storms will have the potential for torrential rainfall. If an area sees repeated rounds of these storms, isolated instances of flash flooding could occur each of the days listed above. The WPC continues to have the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday, and a Marginal Risk on Sunday.

By Monday, A strong 600-dm high is modeled over the Upper Midwest and Central Plains, with the eastern portions of it infringing on the area. Showers and storms will still be possible, with existing scattered chances looking greatest across southern potions of the CWA. A departing area of low pressure is expected to be along the KY/TN border leading to theses lingering chances. The long forgotten trough off the British Columbia coast back on Friday will have navigated around the amplified ridge of high pressure into the upper Great Lakes area by Tuesday morning. This will flatten the high some, allowing for higher heights over Eastern Kentucky. While this usually equates to much warmer temperatures, model 850-mb temperatures remain suppressed.

Temperatures through the extended generally remain in the low to mid 80s through Monday, becoming mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. In the evenings temperatures generally cool into the upper 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 918 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026

Scattered showers/thunderstorms were ongoing at the start of the period, giving localized IFR or worse conditions. Areas not recently affected by the precip were mainly VFR. An overall decrease in precip is forecast as we move into the night, with largely VFR conditions returning. The extent of lingering cloud cover is a bit uncertain. Currently, generalized mid-upper level ceilings are forecast during the night, which would limit fog development compared to last night. However, with enough of a lasting decrease in clouds, fog could become a concern and bring deteriorating conditions. Some additional showers/thunderstorms could also develop overnight and bring reductions in ceilings and visibility. This is being handled by a PROB30 group, which is also covering as a bit of a safeguard for conditions should fog develop. Uncertainty also abounds during the day on Thursday concerning timing of showers/thunderstorms. It's likely that most places will be affected at some time. However, there is so much uncertainty regarding exact timing that it has been handled with another PROB30 group in the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.