textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures begin a moderating trend today that lasts into Tuesday before a mid-week cooldown behind a passing weather system.

- Most of the area can expect some rain and snow beginning Tuesday and lasting into early Wednesday, with minor snow accumulations possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 447 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026

Made updates to Sky grids for the remainder of this morning based on observed satellite trends and surface station observations.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026

Deviations to the forecast from the previous forecast package were minor, so will include the previous discussion here. The one exception will be the need to watch for potential drizzle/freezing drizzle formation on the back side of the passing low pressure system as some models, particularly the GFS, want to dry out the dendritic growth zone quickly from west to east Tuesday evening and extending into Wednesday.

Previous Long Term Discussion:

An amplified long wave pattern will continue across the CONUS through the rest of the week, with persistent troughing seen east of the Mississippi River, while ridging is generally maintained along and west of the Rockies. This will keep the Ohio and Tennessee valleys in northwest flow aloft through the majority of the time. Model agreement is good through the middle of next week, with typical differences growing with time as we head into the latter portion of next week. A developing short wave trough will push east from the central Conus through the Appalachians Tuesday into Wednesday. At the surface, a baroclinic zone will tighten up in response to this, with low pressure forming along the frontal zone, especially seen in the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Deep South. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday across eastern Kentucky, with light precipitation breaking out in the form of mainly rain by the mid to late afternoon hours, as low level warm air advection increases out ahead of the approaching system. Highs will range from the upper 30s north of I-64, to the mid 40s for valleys bordering Tennessee. The precipitation could be more of a mix of rain and snow north of the Mountain Parkway, depending upon the resilience of the cold air. Still, an overall warmer trend has been seen in the guidance for these northern locations, so do not expect much impact on the evening commute at this time.

Precipitation will change over to snow from northwest to southeast Tuesday night. A snowy changeover will also occur quicker across our highest elevations bordering Virginia. Some minor accumulations will be possible, but generally less than an inch at this point for most locales. The exception will be Black Mountain, where a couple of inches will be possible. This may result in some minor impact on the Wednesday morning commute, especially for locations along and north of the Mountain Parkway and for elevations greater than 2500 feet, where colder air will have a longer residence time. A few snow showers will linger into Wednesday, especially favored in our southeast, as a reinforcing short wave trough moves through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. This will result in around a 10 degree drop in high temperatures compared to Tuesday.

The reinforcing shot of colder air that follows will not be as stout as what we have just seen this past week, with lows back into 10 to 15 degree range Wednesday night, and highs in the 20s and 30s for Thursday. Highs will return to mostly the 40s again by Friday. A passing northern stream short wave trough and surface cold front will bring another chance of rain/snow to the area through Friday night, but liquid equivalents look to be light, generally a tenth of an inch or less, and likely more confined to east of KY-15. A colder and drier weekend is in store, with lows back into the teens. Highs will modify from the 20s and 30s on Saturday, to the 30s and 40s by Sunday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026

VFR conditions under clear skies were reported across eastern Kentucky at TAF issuance. A weak disturbance will spread lowering ceilings back across eastern Kentucky late tonight and during the day on Monday. Winds will be variable to southwesterly at less than 10 kts through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.