textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions will prevail for the next several days as temperatures climb back to above normal levels.

UPDATE

Issued at 130 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1050 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026

Only substantive change to the forecast tonight was increasing the ridge valley temperature splits. This was to account for the subtle northeasterly low level flow that will persist through the night and occasionally mix to the surface, especially over ridges and flatter terrain. The northeasterly winds will also help prevent fog formation for most areas tonight outside the sheltered river valleys.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 408 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026

Summer saw September coming and said hold my drink, I've got some fight left in me. The story of the extended period is the Death Ridge that sets up across Kentucky and points south starting on Sunday and continuing until at least mid-week next week. In addition to this increasing level of subsidence, surface winds will also be out of the SW across Kentucky due to a surface high pressure just to our east, allowing return flow and WAA into the region. Both combined will mean sunny, hot, and humid conditions. Upper 80s over the weekend will make way for low to mid 90s through much of the work week. Humidity will only insult things further, as heat indices are forecast to register in the upper 90s, even topping 100 degrees in some locations. Overnight lows will also gradually trend warmer throughout the work week, starting in the upper 60s over the weekend and ending in the low to mid 70s. Even if the forecast modifies slightly as we get closer in time, the numbers changing a couple degrees won't change the fact that it is going to be hot next week.

As far as precipitation, the strong subsidence should keep us dry through mid-week. As we head into Wednesday, we do have some slight chances of precipitation returning according to the NBM. However, looking at the models, the ridge is still very much on top of us, and none of the models are really showing any rain for the state. Therefore, expect that the NBM, despite it being low chances, may still be overdone. By Thursday, the models start to diverge in their solutions. The ECMWF shows the ridge finally breaking down across Kentucky, with NW flow returning and a surface system getting steered SE straight into the Ohio Valley with likely precipitation. Meanwhile, the GFS still shows big bubble no trouble overhead of Kentucky, with no precipitation in site. Trying to blend between these two opposite model solutions, the NBM has gone with slight chances in some locations, ramping up to chances in the afternoon in the far east. Just like the temperatures, expect these pops to change and modify some as we get closer to onset and the models hopefully come into better agreement.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

Valley fog will be around into the first part of the morning, bringing localized IFR, or worse, conditions. Generally expecting the fog to stay away from TAF sites except perhaps for KSJS. The fog should clear shortly after sunrise, leaving VFR conditions area-wide. A cumulus field is expected to develop around midday, especially nearer to the Kentucky/Virginia border. Winds will be light and variable at less than 5 kts through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.