textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air arrives behind a cold front to start the new week.

- Chances for a few showers and thunderstorms return around midweek.

UPDATE

Issued at 1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026

14Z sfc analysis shows high pressure nudging into Kentucky from the west. This is working to clear the morning valley fog while it brings in slightly drier and cooler air. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid upper 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are generally in the low 60s north and in the mid to upper 60s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 450 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026

The long term period should begin with an upper low centered over Quebec and an axis of an upper trough south into the mid Atlantic states to the Carolinas to VA while an upper level ridge should be centered over NM and extend into portions of the western Conus as well as the Central to Southern Plains/portions of the Central Conus. Also at that point, another upper level low should be near the Saskatchewan and Manitoba border with an associated trough south into the eastern MT and easter WY border area with the Dakotas. Further west, an upper trough is expected to extend from west of the coast of BC to west of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a frontal zone should extend from the eastern Carolinas across the Gulf coast states into the Southern Plains on Monday evening while a sfc ridge of high pressure should extend for the Appalachians to the western Great Lakes while a low pressure system should be near the Manitoba and Saskatchewan border with a trailing cold front into the Dakotas with the frontal zone extending into the western Conus.

From Monday night to Tuesday night, a weak shortwave moving around the ridging over much of the Rockies and into parts of the Central Conus should move through the OH Valley and Commonwealth but it will be moisture starved with mainly just some passing high clouds. Some height rises at 500 mb are progged during the day on Tuesday, before near neutral height tendencies or some subtle 500 mb height falls are forecast for Tuesday night as troughing remains from eastern Canada into the Northeast Conus/eastern seaboard and the upper ridge remains centered in southern NM thought it is progged to build north through sections of the Rockies. Meanwhile the upper low initially just north of ND should trek gradually into Ontario and near the northern Great Lakes. This leaves northwest to west northwest flow aloft across the Commonwealth and Lower OH Valley into the central to southern Appalachians. During this time, a ridge of sfc high pressure will shift across the Lower to Mid MS Valley and Central Appalachians and become centered in the mid Atlantic states by late Tuesday night. At the same time, additional disturbances moving around the ridging centered in NW should interact with the frontal/baroclinic zone initially south of eastern KY with a sfc wave tracking to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers late Tuesday night while further east the boundary lifts into the TN Valley as a warm front and approaches. This may lead to a bit of increase in moisture and some cloud cover at mid and high levels late Tuesday night. Sfc high pressure will remain the dominant feature with a drier airmass, with PW on the order of 20th to 30th percentile if not most of the time lower per LREF, in place will allow for lows in the mid 50s to near 60 on ridges and the development of valley fog along the rivers, larger creeks, and areas lakes both Monday night and Tuesday night. Daytime highs on Tuesday trend closer to normal for late August.

Wednesday to Thursday night, a shortwave trough from the mid MS Valley to the Ozarks regions should move east into the Lower OH Valley and parts of the TN Valley and SOutheast as an upper low initially over Ontario and the northern Great Lakes weakens as it moves further east and begins to interact and merge with an upper low/trough centered over the Hudson Bay vicinity. This leaves an upper trough axis from the Hudson and James Bay area south across the Central Great Lakes to the OH and TN Valleys to Southeast by late Thursday night. During this period the upper ridge in the western/southwestern Conus becomes centered further west and southeast to the south of the Four Corners region with the axis of the upper ridge extending into the Southern Plains with another axis north and northeast into MT and Alberta and Saskatchewan that shifts east across WY and eastern MT to Saskatchewan. At the same time, an upper low moves into BC with the trailing trough moving into the Pacific northwest and sections of the interior northwest. Meanwhile as the initial shortwave trough moves across the area at midweek the sfc wave should track over or near eastern KY while the sfc low in the Great Lakes reaches the Northeast and sends an associated cold front across eastern KY Thursday. This will lead to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm potential over eastern KY that may tend to peak on Thursday near and ahead of a cold front. The consensus of guidanceto midis for a return of near normal temperatures.

Friday to Saturday, the upper trough axis is progged to shift east with a broad trough in place from Ontario and Quebec into sections of the eastern Conus. Guidance has a trend of rising 500 mb heights and more of a zonal/westerly flow at that point with upper level ridges centered near Bermuda and the southwest Conus to end the period. This will lead to some initial small chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Friday afternoon before rising heights likely suppresses convection on Saturday. Temperatures should remain near normal for late August.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026

Fog lingered at issuance mainly for locations south of I-64 with all but KLOZ and KIOB among the TAF sites affected by MVFR to IFR if not locally lower reductions initially. This fog should lift and dissipate through 14Z, with VFR conditions generally prevailing through the end the period. Valley fog may again develop by the 04Z and 06Z timeframe, and KLOZ and KSME may be affected per guidance with lower confidence for KSJS and KJKL with no reductions for that period included at this point. Winds should average less than 10KT as high pressure settles across the area.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.