textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing winds just above the surface are expected by late this evening into early Thursday. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph are probable and could be stronger near and north of I-64.

- Storm chances return tonight to Thursday night. Some storms could approach severe limits late tonight north of the Mtn Pkwy, and across all of eastern KY on Thursday. - The primary threat from storms late tonight and Thursday will be damaging wind gusts. Isolated flash flooding is also possible should locations receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 721 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

Current observations show dewpoints generally running higher than forecast, courtesy of moisture advection via southwesterly winds. These observations were incorporated and forecast dewpoints were increased going into early Thursday morning to account for this trend. Additionally, with ongoing convection upstream (presently located primarily in central to southern Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio) current satellite imagery shows cloud cover increasing over the forecast area. Therefore, sky grids were adjusted to account for these clouds moving in earlier than originally forecast. Finally, current radar shows a few stray areas of very light precipitation moving through Fleming County; thus, sprinkles were added in the far north portion of the forecast area over the next two hours to account for this weak activity, although the remainder of the forecast area is expected to remain dry over the next few hours. Beyond that, temperatures were nudged to observations, although the forecast otherwise remains on track.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 615 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

The long wave pattern will be turning more quasi-zonal like this weekend into next week. This will be characterized by broader troughing initially spread from the central and northern Plains through the Eastern Seaboard on Friday, with embedded short wave energy traversing the flow. Ridging will be sprawled from the southeastern CONUS through the Four Corners region. The ridging aligned across the southern CONUS will generally intensify into next week, particularly near the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, the broader troughing will also get reinforced east of the Plains, as additional bouts of short wave energy continue to swing through the region.

Surface high pressure will gradually work into the area on Friday, with any shower activity likely drying up early in the day. Cooler northwest winds will allow for highs in the upper 70s to around 80 despite mostly sunny skies. Mostly clear sky conditions will continue into Friday night with calming winds. This will allow for temperatures to cool back into the 50s for most valley locations, while ridges stay up closer to the 60 degree mark. Rising 500 mb heights will allow for temperatures to rebound into the lower 80s on Saturday. The surface high pressure system will then weaken across the area with an inverted surface trough taking shape to our west. This boundary will lift northeast as a warm front Saturday night into Sunday, as a short wave trough tracks east from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley, with deepening surface low pressure following suit. Low level moisture advection will ensue, allowing for a return of better rain chances across eastern Kentucky by Sunday afternoon. Rain chances will peak late Sunday night into Monday, as the system's cold front gradually crosses the area. Some locally heavy rainfall would be possible during this time frame, although the period of more elevated PWATs does look fairly progressive in nature currently.

High pressure will build back in across the Ohio Valley Tuesday through Wednesday, with mainly drier weather expected across the area. High temperatures will cool from the mid 80s on Sunday, to the upper 70s to lower 80s from Monday through Tuesday. Readings will then warm back to the lower to middle 80s on Wednesday. Lows each night will be in the 60s, although some upper 50s will be possible in the deeper valleys both Monday night and Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 843 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at all TAF sites, albeit with occasional breezy gusts. Overnight, winds will continue to increase ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts generally topping out in the 25-30 kt range. Additionally, a line of decaying showers and thunderstorms is expected to push south, impacting our northern terminals starting early Thursday morning (with main storm chances increasing around 08Z for KSYM and KIOB). Gusts are expected to decrease by Thursday afternoon, but storm chances will continue through the end of the period. MVFR conditions driven by visibility reductions and lowered ceilings will becoming prevailing, with further reductions briefly possible at terminals impacted by thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday morning for KYZ044-050>052.