textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A colder and drier air mass continues to move into the region; it will linger into early next week. - Frost is expected in valley locales tonight and tomorrow night, with freezing temperatures possible in the most sheltered and shaded hollows.

- Rain chances re-enter the forecast from Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a strong cold front's approach.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much colder air moves into Eastern Kentucky on the back side of that system.

UPDATE

Issued at 1030 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and keep the sky most clear. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 40s on the ridges and in the more open areas while the more sheltered valleys have dropped into the lower 40s. Meanwhile, amid light northerly winds, dewpoints are generally in the mid 30s. Mostly clear skies and falling dewpoints will help to set up the frosty conditions tonight with many of the deeper valley spots eventually having a shot at a light freeze by dawn. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

A benign split flow pattern will be in place across most of the CONUS at the start of the period, with the polar jet stream generally near the Canadian border and the subtropical jet stream across northern Mexico and the Gulf Coast. At the surface, high pressure in the general vicinity of the Tennesseee and lower Mississippi valleys and the central/southern Appalachians will be providing us with continued dry weather. Temperatures will gradually climb through mid week with daily sun and warm air advection.

Changes will arrive mid-late week. A significant wave moving onshore in the Pacific northwest on Monday will couple with upper level low pressure over eastern Canada to result in a deep upper level trough with a large closed at it center. This low/trough is expected to transit through the eastern CONUS late week and unify with the southern stream, with strong surface low development ensuing. There is still variation among models, both inter-model and run to run. Models generally suggest rapid, deep coastal low development, but some models/runs also show an initial strong inland surface low. There is agreement for precip to occur in our area from the system on or around Thursday, followed by much colder air. Uncertainty lies in rainfall amounts, and timing of the precip and the arrival of the cold air. Depending on how the system evolves, there could be enough moisture lingering on its back side for rain to mix with or change to the first snowflakes of the season in some locations before it all winds down.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals at the 06Z TAF issuance time. Just some high clouds will drift through the area during the first part of the night. Do anticipate some fog developing near the rivers before dawn, but this will not impact any of the TAF terminals. Accordingly, expect VFR conditions to continue through Sunday, with the light winds becoming more oriented to the west after sunrise.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.