textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A colder and drier air mass continues to move into the region; it will linger into early next week. - Frost is expected in valley locales tonight and tomorrow night, with freezing temperatures possible in the most sheltered and shaded hollows.

- Rain chances re-enter the forecast from Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a strong cold front's approach.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much colder air moves into Eastern Kentucky on the back side of that system.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 350 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

A benign split flow pattern will be in place across most of the CONUS at the start of the period, with the polar jet stream generally near the Canadian border and the subtropical jet stream across northern Mexico and the Gulf Coast. At the surface, high pressure in the general vicinity of the Tennesseee and lower Mississippi valleys and the central/southern Appalachians will be providing us with continued dry weather. Temperatures will gradually climb through mid week with daily sun and warm air advection.

Changes will arrive mid-late week. A significant wave moving onshore in the Pacific northwest on Monday will couple with upper level low pressure over eastern Canada to result in a deep upper level trough with a large closed at it center. This low/trough is expected to transit through the eastern CONUS late week and unify with the southern stream, with strong surface low development ensuing. There is still variation among models, both inter-model and run to run. Models generally suggest rapid, deep coastal low development, but some models/runs also show an initial strong inland surface low. There is agreement for precip to occur in our area from the system on or around Thursday, followed by much colder air. Uncertainty lies in rainfall amounts, and timing of the precip and the arrival of the cold air. Depending on how the system evolves, there could be enough moisture lingering on its back side for rain to mix with or change to the first snowflakes of the season in some locations before it all winds down.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals at the TAF issuance time, but a stratocumulus field draped across the northeastern half of the forecast area could straddle the line between low end VFR and high end MVFR ceilings through the rest of the afternoon. KSJS, KSYM, and KIOB are the most likely to experience brief ceiling reductions, but visible gaps in these clouds on satellite imagery reinforce the idea that conditions should bounce back to VFR shortly afterwards. Terminals further to the south will generally see lesser cloud cover this afternoon, although a deck of high clouds will reach these places like KSME and KLOZ first after sunset tonight. Northwesterly winds should subside in this same time frame, and these light winds could lead to patchy river valley fog by tomorrow morning. Recent guidance suggests that KSME could experience fog-related vsby reductions tomorrow morning, but confidence was not high enough to explicitly mention this in the TAFs with the 18z forecast package. Observational dewpoint trends and subsequent model runs will be reviewed headed into the 00z and 06z TAF packages, as this appears to be a borderline fog/frost scenario. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to continue into tomorrow, with winds adopting more of a westerly orientation after sunrise.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.