textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

- There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for the early to middle part of next week. Some wintry precipitation is possible during the Monday night through Tuesday night period.

UPDATE

Issued at 1217 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025

Minor changes were made to the sky grids to better capture current trends. Also refreshed the forecast by incorporating the most recent regional observations. Little to no changes were made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 854 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025

Minor edits were made to the winds over the next few hours, as gusts have dropped off around the area. Forecast was also updated with the most up to date observational data across the area. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 603 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025

Made some minor edits to Sky grids through this evening based on current cloud cover not being quite as expansive as the previous forecast had. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with no significant changes.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025

The period begins Friday morning with dry northwesterly flow and cold advection continuing on the upstream side of a highly-amplified upper trough over the East Coast. The cold advection winds down by the evening as surface high pressure moves over the area, with warm advection beginning late Friday night and increasing into the weekend ahead of the next system which arrives late Saturday and lasts through much of Sunday before exiting to the east. This shortwave will dig southeast from the PacNW through the Central Rockies into the Central CONUS before ejecting northeast through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the day Sunday.

There may be some initial p-type concerns in the far northeastern and southeastern parts of the forecast area at the onset of precipitation Saturday night, which may struggle to warm up earlier in the day after the chilly conditions from the morning, with an hour or two of light wintry precipitation possible due to evaporational cooling of a dry low-level air mass. However, no winter weather impacts are expected at this time as increasingly warmer air moves into the region and changes any potential wintry precipitation to all rain. Previous WPC/CPC outlooks highlighted parts of the area for a heavy rain potential with this system, but it looks like the progressive nature and better moisture advection being diverted more south and east will keep heavy rain concerns minimal.

After what is increasingly looking like a drier period of weather Sunday night into Monday (despite the NBM chance PoPs currently), the next system arrives with an amplified shortwave moving from west to east across the CONUS for late Monday night through Tuesday. There are still significant model disagreements and run-to-run inconsistencies between and within operational and ensemble member systems with this system, but it bears close watching due to potential wintery weather concerns for the late Monday night through Tuesday night period, as it appears the rain-snow low-level thickness line will be situated across at least parts of the forecast area. Depending on how the system evolves, cold advection upslope snow showers may occur Tuesday night into Wednesday on the back side of this system.

Users of the NWS and NDFD forecasts are advised to not rely solely on deterministic forecasts of wintery precipitation and especially snow accumulations this far out. Forecasts are virtually guaranteed to change many times between now and the early to middle part of next week. As it stands as of early afternoon Wednesday, NBM v4.3 probability of exceedance values for greater than 1 inch of snow for the Tuesday time period range from 15 to 25 percent mainly north of the Mountain Parkway, and roughly 5 to 15 percent from the Mountain Parkway south through the remainder of southeastern Kentucky to the Tennessee and Virginia borders.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 1217 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025

Winds have largely diminished across the area, with KSJS and KSYM holding on to some lingering gusts up to 15 KTS. KSJS may retain elevated winds through the overnight. Clouds have hung around some with a OVC050 deck expected to clear out of the area over the next few hours. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are expected to return again Thursday morning, with gusts 15-20 kts expected at all TAF sites. Wind are then expected to diminish around 20-23Z Thursday, as skies clear.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.