textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds linger today with patchy drizzle at times across the northern two thirds of the region. - Active weather continues through the end of the work week, with a seasonably mild and moist airmass in place.

UPDATE

Issued at 1103 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Low clouds linger across most of the area, with some breaks at times near the TN border as a front has sagged south across much of eastern KY, but has for now stalled over the Cumberland Valley vicinity. Some patchy drizzle may be falling at times form the low clouds/status and reduced visibilities still remain on ridges from stratus build down. North of this boundary with low clouds lingering, temperatures will rise only a few degrees through the day. Locations in the north should reach the low to mid 50s while near the TN border along/south of the boundary should reach the mid to upper 60s. This boundary should finally settle south of eastern KY this evening and tonight.

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation and satellite trends.

UPDATE Issued at 546 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Widespread low clouds and fog have developed this morning in the wake of overnight rain and the passage of a weak cold front. Visibility seems to be highly variable, and webcams suggest a lot of valley locations are seeing just low stratus. Have elected to cover this with a Special Weather Statement for areas of fog with localized dense fog instead of a Dense Fog Advisory. Will continue to monitor trends.

Sprinkles have been added to the forecast for much of the day, as sprinkles and/or drizzle can be expected at times from the persistent stratus deck.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 201 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

An active long-term period is expected, beginning Thursday night with a warm front moving north through the area and rain overspreading the region from the west in association with a system ejecting from a large low over the Southwest CONUS and northwestern Mexico and moving across our region Friday. As the warm front moves slowly north with time, moisture and instability will increase along with temperatures allowing for some thunderstorm activity with localized pockets of heavy rain at times from late Thursday night through early Saturday. At this times, there are no significant flood concerns expected as precipitation will not be continuous across the region, though widespread QPF of 0.75 to 1.25 inches is expected.

Models are in agreement in a shortwave passage later Saturday with a likely cold frontal passage bringing briefly cooler and drier conditions to the region for Sunday, before warm advection begins again early next week with another system ejecting out of the southwest CONUS and moving east and northeast across the eastern CONUS. Thus, rain probabilities increase again through early next week, typically one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 115 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Extensive low clouds and fog on ridges remain across northern sections of the area including KJKL, KSJS, and KSYM, while some breaks or at least in the way fog was in place near KSME and KLOZ and point south. Northern locations are at or below airport mins while from near KLOZ and KSME south IFR and MVFR was observed. Through the afternoon, some minor improvements are generally forecast and a category improvement may occur. However, by 00Z and after, the boundary that has been lingering over the region will have sunk south and low clouds and stratus build down may occur once gain and IFR ceilings and or vis should return near or north of a KSME to KLOZ line including KSYM, KJKL, and KSJS. as the night progresses. During the last 6 hours of the period, gradual improvements to MVFR or VFR are anticipated. Winds will remain light through the period at all terminals.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.