textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will cross through the area today and tonight; bringing showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms are possible with damaging winds being the primary threat.

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through today, but above normal temperatures to varying extent will also persist through the middle of next week.

- Showers and thunderstorms are also expected around the middle of next week.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 205 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

The period starts Sunday evening with a zonal mid-level pattern with a decaying front just south of the area in the Tennessee Valley. With radiational cooling conditions looking promising, ridge-valley splits were introduced for the Sunday night period, along with a reduction in dew points by several degrees from the NBM.

A warm front begins to lift north toward the area Monday into Monday night, slowly introducing clouds and rain chances from the south. However, the bulk of the guidance suggests most of the area will remain under less than full cloud cover along with weak warm advection, which is again a good setup for at least some ridge- valley splits in temperatures, especially in the evening before clouds and shower chances increase from the south.

PoPs continue to increase into Tuesday as the area becomes entrenched within a robust warm sector to the south of a warm/stationary front over the southern Great Lakes Region and an upper low and cold front ejecting from northwestern Mexico into the southern CONUS. A potentially strong cold front then moves east through the area Wednesday as a digging upper trough absorbs the southern stream disturbance or phases with it over the Eastern US. While the progressive nature of this system precludes any widespread excessive rainfall threat from heavy rain, at least at this time, the strong dynamics (forcing) and wind shear would suggest the potential for strong to severe storms potentially should sufficient instability is present as the cold front passes.

Regardless of how this evolves, the models all suggest a cooler air mass behind the cold front within broad cyclonically-curved zonal flow for Thursday into Friday, with the low potential for some light snow showers in the north for those solutions favoring a deeper phasing system over the Eastern US Thursday and/or Thursday night.

The manual edits in the long-term period were to introduce ridge- valley splits for both Sunday night and to a lesser degree Monday night, and to lower dew point temperatures from Sunday night through Monday night.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

TAFs are VFR at the start of the 12Z issuance with mostly clear skies but over the next a few hours, increasing and lowering CIGS are expected as a cold front approaches the area. Before the front arrives, surface winds are forecast to increase out of the southwest with gusts to around 15 knots this morning but increasing to 25 knots this afternoon. When the cold front arrives, increasing coverage of showers and storms is likely with reductions in VSBY with showers and storms. Storms will also bring gusty and erratic winds through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will give way to rain overnight with terminals expected to fall into categorical MVFR or IFR. Winds are also forecast to diminish after 00Z Sunday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.