textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend begins Monday, with even warmer weather arriving Tuesday as temperatures climb into the 50s.

- Accumulating snow is possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a more significant storm system moves into the area.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026

While high pressure should keep much of the short-term dry, unfortunately this will not last heading into the extended portion of the forecast. Tuesday will start off with some increased troughing aloft, as a surface low pressure center moves across Lake Superior, bringing an area of precipitation to the Great Lakes region. Thankfully this precipitation should remain just to our north, keeping us dry throughout the day. However, the above- mentioned surface high pressure will exit to our east throughout the day, bringing the return of strong SW flow. Temperatures will top out in the mid 50s across much of eastern KY, around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Again, not something to get too exited about, because this too will be short-lived.

Tuesday night will start to see a transition in the flow aloft. A shortwave will drop from south-central Canada, and continue to deepen the overall troughing pattern through Wednesday, bringing sharply decreasing pressure to much of the Mid/Upper Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. A closed upper low will then form by Wednesday evening, deepening as it moves straight across the Ohio Valley and then Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday, before finally exiting Thursday evening and overnight. The ECWMF shows this low getting as low as 516mb on Thursday afternoon. The result will be very tight pressure gradients, strong lift, and a deep dive of cold Canadian air into the region. The return of winter.

At the surface, a cold front will develop ahead of the influx of cold air on the apex and backside of the upper level trough. This too will offer a center for lift and instability, leading to increased precipitation as it moves through eastern KY starting Tuesday night and continuing into the day Wednesday. Even after the cold front exits to the SE, the center of the upper level low will remain in place, continuing the precipitation potential until it exits Thursday evening. With the warm air in place ahead of this system, it looks like all precipitation should start off as rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, as soon as the influx of cold air moves in starting Wednesday evening, temperatures will quickly drop below freezing, and all rain will transition to snow Wednesday night. By the time it tapers off late Thursday, the current forecast has between 1 inch (West) and possibly 4-5 inches (East), based on WPC QPF, and NBM temperatures. This is still Days 4-5, so there is room for change, but definitely going to have some impacts. Highs on Thursday will only reach the upper 20s to low 30s (some 20+ degrees colder than Tuesday).

Theoretically, had this system dive-bombed further southward, putting KY more in the cold sector, and we were colder starting out, these snowfall amounts could be much much more. Thankfully there is very good agreement amongst the models on the track of this low across the state, which is giving better confidence to the impacts and outcomes of this system.

Unfortunately as this system exits Thursday night, we aren't done for the extended period. No sooner does this system exit, before another shortwave and low pressure system begins to impact KY from the NW. The height falls will be felt first Friday, with the precipitation arriving shortly after, likely impacting Friday night and continuing at times through Sunday. Unlike the Tuesday-Thursday system, there is very very little agreement in this next weekend system. Kept with the NBM for now, simply because there is such a wide range in solutions amongst the long-range models that there is very little confidence towards one particular solution. Expect these patterns to change, models to start to line up, and precipitation timing/location to come into better confidence. Right now, it looks like highs will top out in the mid and upper 30s during this time period, and lows in the teens and 20s, which should keep the precipitation type mainly light snow with some rain mixed in during the day. But again, this could easily change depending on how the system develops.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2026

Widespread snow shower and isolated snow squall activity marked the start of the 18Z aviation forecast cycle with the eastern terminals still seeing impacts that will briefly reach IFR or worse conditions as any squall passes. This threat diminishes from west to east between 18 and 20Z bringing a return to VFR status. Winds will generally be northwesterly into the evening at 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts before diminishing after dark. Winds then will be light and variable during much of the night but pick up to between 5 and 10 kts from the southwest by midday Monday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.