textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front brings scattered to widespread thunderstorms today and Friday. A few strong wind gusts as well as localized excessive rainfall are possible with storms, mainly today into tonight.

- Noticeably cooler and less humid air arrives this weekend and continues into early next week.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 405 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026

At the onset of the long term period, a high amplitude upper level pattern will be in place, with deep troughing over the eastern CONUS and strong ridging over the western CONUS. At the surface, a weak high will sit to the northwest of the forecast area; meanwhile, an area of low pressure will be located near Lake Michigan, with a cold front draped to its southwest. By Friday night, showers and storms will be exiting the forecast area as previous shortwave forcing departs. Overnight, skies will clear somewhat, allowing for temperatures to cool into the low to mid 60s, with widespread fog developing.

By Saturday afternoon, another shortwave will move through the eastern CONUS trough, which will push the aforementioned cold front southeast into the forecast area. In theory, this could bring another round of showers and storms, although model spread remains quite high at this time. With Eastern Kentucky sitting in close proximity to the upper level trough axis on Saturday, any differing speed in the motion of this trough could have implications for PoPs. Accordingly, NBM output keeps rain chances isolated for much of the forecast area to account for this uncertainty. Following the passage of this front, height rises are anticipated as the western ridge continues to progress eastward and the trough becomes less amplified.

From Sunday through early next week, ridging will dominate the forecast. Behind Saturday's cold front, a much drier air mass will be in place. Northerly to northeasterly winds will maintain dewpoints in the low 60s to even upper 50s, with rain chances near zero. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s across the forecast area. Overnight, lows will fall into the upper 50s in many valley locations and the low 60s elsewhere, with typical fog formation expected. This tranquil weather will continue until midweek, when an additional disturbance looks to approach the area.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the TAF sites at 06Z. Valley fog has also developed along many of the mainstem rivers but is not expected to reach the terminals. Instead, an MCS presently over the Mid-Mississippi Valley is expected to press eastward and eventually impact all terminals for a few hours between 10 and 16Z. The precipitation is likely to bring a period of sub-VFR flight categories. After a lull, additional - more scattered - storms may develop across the area into the afternoon and evening. Winds, away from any storm, will be light and variable early this morning, becoming southwest around 5 kts during the daylight hours.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.