textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cool and dry air mass lingers into early next week. - Frost is expected in valley locales tonight, with freezing temperatures possible in the most sheltered and shaded hollows. - Rain chances re-enter the forecast from Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a strong cold front's approach.

- The first snowflakes of the season could fall on Friday as much colder air moves into Eastern Kentucky on the back side of that system.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 437 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2026

The extended period opens Monday night with dry weather, conditions that will last through the better part of Wednesday. Synoptically, split flow exists to open the period, with the northern jet stream near the US-Canada border and the sub-tropical jet across Mexico and the Gulf Coast. Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity, located in the Tennessee and lower Mississippi valleys. Conditions will remain favorable at night for good radiational cooling, especially in decoupled valleys, with decent ridge-valley splits under mostly clear skies and light winds. With the NBM exhibiting a recent cold bias during strong decoupling setups, blended in the RRFS for both Monday and Tuesday nights to nudge minimum temperatures up slightly while still preserving realistic ridge- to- valley splits. Monday night, valleys and hollows could fall into the lower 30s, while mid to upper 30s remain along ridge tops. Areas of frost will form in the coldest spots, while patchy river valley fog will also develop.

By Tuesday, a strong upper-level cyclone will move into the Gulf of Alaska and Pacific Northwest region. While a ridge builds just downstream over the Rockies and Intermountain West, multiple waves of energy over the northern Plains and Southeast Canada will evolve into a deep longwave trough by midweek. Another shortwave over the Central Plains on Tuesday will advect warmer air into the region both Tuesday and Wednesday. As a result, temperatures each afternoon will climb into the mid to upper 60s (5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals). Tuesday night will also feature ridge-valley splits, with the coldest valleys dropping into the mid to upper 30s while ridge tops remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. Patchy frost may form in the coldest spots, while areas of river valley fog will also develop. As mentioned previously, a vigorous northern-stream shortwave diving out of western Canada will carve out a deep, anomalous longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS by mid- week. An attendant cold front will sweep through the Commonwealth late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing increasing clouds and increasing rain chances.

The core of the upper trough is modeled to move just north of the area Thursday into Friday, pushing 500 mb heights below the 5th climatological percentile and ushering in a brisk Canadian air mass on breezy northwest winds. Highs Friday and Saturday may struggle to climb out of the 40s, with overnight lows potentially dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s. With model soundings suggesting steep low-level lapse rates alongside northwest upslope flow, lingering showers could mix with or transition to the first flurries of the season across the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky Thursday night into Friday before surface high pressure restores dry conditions for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the duration of the 18z TAF period. Current satellite imagery reveals clear skies in place over much of the Ohio River Valley, and area observations indicate light and variable surface winds. These conditions are forecast to persist, although a few isolated wind gusts in the 15-20 knot range cannot be ruled out as diurnal mixing peaks this afternoon. River valley fog is anticipated to develop again tonight, but confidence was not high enough to explicitly mention this in the TAFS. Last night, the fog outperformed expectations and brought vsby reductions to KSME and KSYM. Interests at these two terminals should monitor for any updates in the 00z and 06z TAF package, as tonight's crossover temperatures will be more clear by then and confidence in fog formation should accordingly increase. Aside from any localized fog-related impacts, VFR conditions are forecast to continue into tomorrow, with mostly clear skies and light, westerly winds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.