textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of valley fog will be locally dense this morning.

- Drier weather with modestly lower humidity will prevail through the end of the work week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026

The main change to the grids for the first part of the extended forecast this morning was primarily to include more in the way of terrain distinctions into temperatures for Thursday night and the first part of Friday night along with drier afternoon dewpoints through the rest of the work week. The westward retreat of the strong 5h ridge to the west looks to allow shortwaves in northwest flow to start cutting to the west of eastern Kentucky and likely setting up lower heights for the region with a trough axis through western Kentucky by the end of the weekend. Accordingly, sfc high pressure in place for the end of the work week looks to keep the weather quiet, dry, and rather pleasant. Then return flow moisture and the upper level dynamics return storm chances to the forecast starting Saturday along with a potential for excessive rainfall.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long-term period opens Thursday morning with a deep trough axis extending from Quebec southward to along the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US coast. Meanwhile, an ~596 dam high is in place over the Southern Rockies with broader ridging across much of the Central and Western CONUS. This leaves the Ohio Valley in a zone of subsidence on the eastern side of the ridging, corresponding to an area of surface high pressure. There is also a shortwave trough riding over the top of the ridging across the Dakotas at the start of the period.

Aside from some nighttime and morning fog in the typically favored river valley locales, fair weather will be found across eastern Kentucky through Friday as surface high pressure crests over and just northeast of the JKL CWA. This will keep relatively cool temperatures in place for both Thursday and Friday with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s to near 60F. Dew points falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s will make it feel quite comfortable.

Looking ahead to the weekend and early next week, the shortwave trough over the Northern Plains will dig southeastward and close off into a low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A weak area of surface low pressure will develop ahead of this feature over the Central Plains on Thursday night into Friday, then occlude and decay near or over the Commonwealth early next week. This system will wrap higher humidity levels back into eastern Kentucky while also bringing rounds of convection. As a result, daily high temperatures will remain on the cool side, generally in the lower to middle 80s, while nighttime lows moderate to between 65 and 70F.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026

VFR conditions to start 06Z TAF cycle, though fog will develop in the deeper valleys through the early morning hours. However, its spread with time is uncertain due to advection of cooler/drier air into the area. Have limited it to just a tempo line for the southernmost terminals. Where fog develops, IFR or worse conditions can be anticipated. Once the fog dissipates shortly after sunup, VFR conditions will hold through the rest of the period along with light and variable winds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.