textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest days are forecast to be Tuesday through Saturday. New daily record high temperatures are possible, if not likely, on the warmest days.

- There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon, mainly for northern and western counties, though there is poor agreement on any activity occurring. Additional showers/storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night, and again into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 648 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026

Minor updates were made to Sky grids and hourly temperatures in the very near term. Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 304 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026

An amplified long wave pattern continues through early next week. A strong and persistent ridge will remain planted from central Mexico to Florida through early this weekend. This feature will then pivot more southeast by early next week, as an onslaught of eastern Pacific energy throughout this week finally dislodges it. Model agreement is decent early on, but then becomes less, with greater differences showing up by this weekend and into early next week.

Eastern Kentucky will continue to find itself under the influence of the strong ridging to our southeast through Saturday. Well above normal temperatures, nearing record status at times, will remain in place. Highs each day will average in the mid to upper 80s, with a few low 90s possible, especially Wednesday and Friday/Saturday. Lows will average in the 50s and 60s each night. The next decent chance of rain will move in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, as a well-defined short wave trough tracks east from the middle Mississippi Valley through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range. Unfortunately, QPF continues to look lean, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch or less, although any thunderstorms could locally overachieve.

A much deeper trough will move from the Plains to the eastern CONUS this weekend into early next week, with a surface cold front finally making it across the Commonwealth. QPF could be more substantial and beneficial with this system; however, will await further model trends before getting too optimistic. PoPs peak in the 50-60% range Saturday night, with some chances extending into Sunday, depending on the timing. This cold front will also bring an end to the heatwave, with highs retreating to mainly the 60s for both Sunday and Monday. Some frost potential may follow for Sunday night and perhaps Monday night in the valleys, depending on model trends.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and are likely to prevail through the period. Winds have already started to increase at the more exposed sites this morning as a low-level jet begins to exit the area. Southwest winds at 5 to 15 kts with gusts of 15 to 25 kts can be expected for most of the daylight hours today, with strongest winds west of I-75 and near/north of I-64. These winds will subside with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

Otherwise, some isolated shower and/or thunderstorm activity is possible today but confidence in impacts and timing was too low to retain in the latest TAF issuance outside of a PROB30 mention.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.