textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a small chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm this afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat but a stray, brief tornado will also be possible along with times of heavy rain.

- Humid and often wet weather will continue through mid week.

- Rain should become less prevalent late in the week as drier air arrives from the north.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

Convection near a quasi stationary has gradually been lifting north this morning and has now mostly tapered off to the south of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Some partial clearing has also developed in sections of eastern Middle TN/Cumberland Plateau in Tn into south central KY. The main concern the remainder of the day is if the partial clearing will be substantial enough for sufficient instability to develop for redevelopment of convection. That convection, if it materializes, could become severe in a few places or produce torrential downpours.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids with near 100 percent PoPs ongoing as the initial band lifts north with the front. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 455 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to allow for a bit more terrain influence for lows later in the week as we start to dry out - if only for a couple of days - as well as valley fog for Thursday morning. The pattern shift advertised below looks to be on track to bring some welcomed drier weather for the end of the week and potentially continuing through the next weekend - best chances for extended drying will be for the northern parts of Kentucky.

The previous long term discussion follows:

A stationary front will be situated just north and west of the area to begin the long-term period Wednesday, with Eastern Kentucky entrenched within the muggy warm sector to its southeast. A shortwave will cross the area during the day Wednesday within southwesterly mid-level flow, with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity within an environment characterized by PWs around 1.8" and on top of saturated soils, which will raise the possibility of at least isolated excessive rainfall impacts.

The stationary front moves south through the area as a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday as southwesterly mid-level flow turns northerly for the second half of the week. A series of upper troughs then dig south from eastern Canada through the Mid- Atlantic to end the week into early next week. Big question mark for Thursday and Friday is whether a wave within more westerly flow aloft ahead of a deep closed low traversing the New England region is able to ride along the stationary front to our south and bring rain/showers to southern parts of the forecast area. At this time, there is enough uncertainty to warrant low-end PoPs across much of the forecast area, especially south of I-64 from Thursday night through Sunday, with high enough confidence to take out rain chances from roughly I-64 and points north as surface high pressure should be close enough to suppress rain chance south. By Sunday night, it appears all areas should be free of any significant PoPs as surface high pressure prevails across the Ohio River Valley.

Temperatures will remain mild through the period, with highs and lows near normal overall (mid to upper 70s for highs, upper 50s for lows) as southwesterly flow becomes northerly, and humid and cloudy conditions with rain chances transition to a cooler and drier regime.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026

VFR conditions were still holding in the far north but the rest of the area is seeing MVFR to IFR restrictions as the steadier showers have overtaken most of eastern Kentucky with the frontal boundary lifting north bringing these showers, low clouds, and areas of fog. The activity will become more scattered and convective during the late morning and afternoon hours from south to north with thunderstorm chances depicted in the TAFs through generous PROB30s at all sites. Conditions then become more variable tonight with spotty showers and possible storms around but likely not nearly as saturated as we are currently. Winds will remain light and variable through the period - away from any thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.