textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Low low relative humidity, dry fuels, and gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range will result in High Fire Danger until a couple of hours past sunset.

- Passing disturbances result in more cloud cover and small chances for light showers and sprinkles at times late tonight into Monday, and again Tuesday afternoon, as humidity moderates. - Several consecutive days in the 70s to lower 80s for highs, along with mild overnight lows in the 40s to lower 60s is expected over the next few days. - A trend towards a more active weather pattern is looking to take shape during the middle to second half of the work week. More significant and widespread rainfall is possible.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 303 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026

An area of low pressure is expected to move through the Upper Mississippi Valley, Tuesday. A mix of sun and clouds will occur Tuesday, with deep southwesterly flow allowing warm air to advect into the area, leading highs into the lower 80s. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon from abundant moisture streaming into the region, however model trends suggest this is unlikely. Clouds begin to increase overnight into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Tuesday night, clouds are expected to move in later in the evening allowing for some ridge- valley splits in the eastern valleys and hollows. Eastern valleys may cool into the mid to upper 50s, while western valleys and ridgetops cool into the lower 60s.

The approaching cold front will bring rain and thunderstorms to the area through Wednesday. PWAT values are expected to creep up just ahead of the frontal passage. The LREF 00Z ensemble continues to show a 1.1-1.2 inch mean value range, which falls around the 95th percentile making this anomalous for the time of year. Previous guidance suggested the this cold front would work south of the area by Thursday an stall. Newest guidance suggests the front may sit just north of the area, potentially creating a northwest to southeast POP gradient.

Thursday a stationary front looks to remain stalled just north of the area, continuing to bring periods of rain and thunderstorms to the CWA through Friday. A lot of uncertainty remains beyond Thursday- Friday, with the evolutions of another low pressure further west. At current, an area of low pressure is expected to track out of the Desert Southwest an into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible at times as the area remains in the warm sector behind a warm front to the north and ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. This cold front looks to pass through Eastern Kentucky early Sunday morning bringing more showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures through the long term period remain 10-15 degrees above normal, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook covering April 5th through the 11th shows a 40-50% probability for above normal temperatures in Eastern

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 531 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail at TAF issuance and will hold through the bulk of the period, with just passing high and mid-level clouds at times. However, some lower CIGs to MVFR and light showers will be possible north and west near and after 06z tonight, and further reductions of low clouds to borderline VFR/MVFR conditions are possible with -SHRA activity beginning as early as 10z Monday, but more likely later in the morning to around midday.

South to south-southwest winds are expected to mostly decouple toward 00z this evening, though an isolated gust in the 15 to 20 kt range can not be ruled out through the night, especially those sites along and west of the escarpment. Otherwise, LLWS from the southwest at up to 45 kts will be possible for most TAF sites late tonight into Monday morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.