textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper system is on track to produce a widespread and impactful accumulating snow tonight into Friday morning. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Montgomery and Bath counties, while Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of eastern Kentucky.

- Another light to moderate snowfall is increasingly likely Saturday night and early Sunday.

- An arctic airmass with well below normal temperatures moves into our region for Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 835 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025

Minor updates were made to PoPs and temperatures. The forecast remains on track with no significant changes.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 543 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025

Amplified flow dominates the long wave pattern over the CONUS through early next week, before transitioning to more of a zonal flow by the middle of next week. A deep closed low will be positioned over Lake Superior on Saturday, with broad and tight cyclonic flow fanned southward and spread from the Plains through the Eastern Seaboard. This progressive low will spiral east, reaching northern New England by late Sunday night, and barreling an arctic cold front through eastern Kentucky by late Saturday afternoon. A shot of light snow will accompany this system, mainly occurring Saturday night into early Sunday morning. There will be a more limited window of deeper moisture, as is typical with these arctic system types, but 1 to 2 inches of snow for most locations east of I-75 looks possible, with 2 to 3 inches closer to the Ohio and West Virginia borders, closer to the vicinity of the core of the better upper level support. Temperatures will peak in the 30s and 40s on Saturday, before plummeting into mainly the teens by early Sunday morning, although some single digit readings could occur north of the Mountain Parkway.

Readings will only warm a few to several degrees on Sunday, mainly remaining in the teens. High pressure will build in more decisively Sunday night. As skies clear out and winds calm, this will set the stage for widespread single digit readings across the area, with sub-zero readings a good possibility within deeper hollows with a fresh snowpack in place. Well below normal highs will continue on Monday, with readings ranging from the mid 20s north of I-64, to the mid 30s near the Tennessee border. Did undercut the blended guidance for valleys lows for Monday night, as lingering snowpack and return flow should yield another good drop off. Have included some middle teens in these locations, but single digits may wind up being closer to reality.

A warmup is in store through the rest of the period, as low level southwesterly flow ensues, although model guidance differs more significantly on the timing and amplitude of smaller scale features. Generally dry weather holds through Tuesday, before rain chances return for Wednesday and Thursday, as better moisture transport ensues out ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest. Highs will moderate from the 30s and 40s Tuesday, to widespread 50s by Thursday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 619 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025

A mix of VFR, low-VFR, and MVFR ceilings will deteriorate into IFR and lower conditions (both cigs and viz) from southwest to northeast through 06z tonight as snow develops along a slow-moving warm front entering eastern Kentucky this evening. The worst conditions are anticipated over the northeastern half of the CWA, including JKL, SJS, and SYM. The precipitation will be lightest and of shortest duration near Lake Cumberland and heaviest and persistent north of the Mountain Parkway. Light winds are expected through the period. As precipitation moves north with the passing warm front tonight and especially into Friday, locations to the south of the front, especially with snow on the ground, will likely keep some visibility reductions in fog.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ044-052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-088-104-106>120.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ050-051.