textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly to partly sunny skies, mild days, and chilly nights persist through the end of the work week.

- Fog is likely near the area's main stem rivers and lakes late each night and for a few hours after daybreak. - Rain chances increase as the calendar changes to November this weekend, so interests with outdoor Halloween plans are encouraged to continue monitoring for forecast updates.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 547 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026

The long-term period opens Wednesday evening with a low-amplitude pattern across the CONUS - broad 500 hPa ridging in place over the Eastern CONUS with upstream troughing over the Western CONUS. At the surface, ~1030 mb surface high pressure is centered off the New England Coast with ridging extending southwestward across the Southern Appalachians to the western Gulf Coast. To our northwest, low pressure is over the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwest into Nebraska and then northwest across the Northern Rockies to another weak low near Vancouver Island.

The trough will be amplifying over the Western CONUS at the start of the period, which will be accompanied by corresponding, albeit weak, height rises over much of the eastern CONUS into Friday. This being the case, surface high pressure off the Atlantic shears apart, with the westward portion cresting over the Southern Appalachians on Thursday night. Ridge-valley temperature splits are likely to sharpen for both Wednesday and Thursday nights with the loss of cloud cover allowing for more efficient radiative cooling. This should also favor decent nocturnal fog formation in the prone valleys, mainly near lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

A northern-stream shortwave trough then rides over the ridge on Friday. This will support the cold front sagging southward toward the Ohio River, stalling over or just north of our area due to a loss of upper-level support. With this setup, the next notable weathermaker (upper-level energy associated with former tropical system Vance in the eastern Pacific) will rise northward across Mexico and attempt to ride through and quash the lingering ridge. This robust disturbance will send PWATs surging higher to between 1.2 and 1.3 inches by Sunday, exceeding the 90th percentile of LREF climatology for this time of year. The combination of upper- level energy and Gulf moisture surging northward and interacting with the stalled boundary will set the stage for our first rainfall in about 2 weeks across most of eastern Kentucky. Present model timing favors this disturbance's associated rainfall developing late Saturday night. With that being said, the forecast still bears watching on Halloween evening, as a slightly faster arrival could mean the difference between a completely dry and mild evening versus an increasingly damp one.

In sensible terms, look for mostly clear skies to return Wednesday evening and persist through Thursday night before thickening clouds return for Friday and especially the upcoming weekend. Rain chances arrive late Saturday and Saturday night, peaking on Sunday (around 60 percent PoP) before diminishing, at least temporarily, for Monday. High temperatures in the mid 70s can be expected through Saturday, then cool slightly for Sunday and Monday with thicker cloud cover and higher rain chances. Nighttime lows will generally be coolest on the first couple of nights, ranging in the 40s to near 50F, but then moderating into the 50s over the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 736 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026

There will be periods of high clouds crossing the area, but winds are expected to remain light through the period. Valley fog along the rivers, largest creeks, and lakes is causing MVFR and worse reductions at TAF issuance but should improve through ~13-14Z. This fog could drift and impact SME, thus there is a TEMPO group there with MVFR reductions through 14Z. Otherwise, VFR should return areawide as the valley fog lifts this morning and dissipates.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.