textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder weather returns today ahead of a cold frontal passage tonight, ushering in a cooldown for Sunday and Sunday night. - Periodic rain chances are forecast from Monday night to Friday, with temperatures trending to 15 to 20 degrees above normal for Christmas Day and Friday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 420 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025

Ridging will dominate across the south central CONUS through much of next week, keeping progressive zonal flow atop most locations east of the Rockies, and consequently well above normal temperatures for the region. Meanwhile, deeper troughing will continue to advect in bouts of stronger energy from the eastern Pacific, plaguing the West with heavy precipitation.

Sunday night, surface high pressure will be situated on the eastern side of the Appalachians, allowing for a cold night across the Coalfields. Have maintained forecast continuity and kept teens in the deeper hollows, with low to mid 20s elsewhere. The influence of high pressure will keep dry weather in place for Monday, before an inverted trough/warm front noses in from the west and southwest. Low- level moisture transport will pick up across the Ohio Valley Monday night, thanks to a 40-50 kt jet at 850 mb, allowing for rain chances to return across the area. This will be the start of a period of intermittent rain chances, generally peaking during the night, as multiple 850 mb jet upticks occur through Christmas. PoP chances will decrease during the daylight hours, especially for Wednesday and Thursday, as the aforementioned surface warm front eventually shifts north of the Ohio River.

The bigger story will be the unseasonably mild temperatures that will be building in through Christmas, as highs moderate from the mid 50s on Tuesday to the 60s for Thursday and Friday. Some of the model guidance suggests a 70 degree reading can not be ruled out, and depending on cloud cover, this is not out of the question. Lows will also warm from the 30s and 40s Monday night to the low to mid 50s by Thursday night. These kind of readings will range between 15 and 20 degrees above normal for late December.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 651 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025

VFR conditions prevailed across eastern Kentucky at the 12Z TAF issuance and VFR is expected to continue through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable initially, before increasing to 5 to 10 kts out of the south or southwest by around 16Z. With daytime mixing some gusts into the 15 to 20KT range are forecast, mainly for more western and northwestern locales such as KSYM, KSME, and KLOZ. Sfc winds will slacken and become less gusty near sunset and a passing low- level jet in advance of an approaching cold front is forecast to bring a period of 35 to 45 kt LLWS Saturday evening starting around 22Z. However, the LLWS will diminish toward 06Z as the pressure gradient relaxes nearer to the front.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.