textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will average 15 or more degrees above normal through the end of the week.

- Showers/storms are possible today and tonight from a passing disturbance, with potentially greater chances this weekend with a cold front.

- Much cooler weather is expected Sunday into early next week, with the potential for patchy frost in the coldest locations Monday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 140 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026

Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s for much of the area early this afternoon. A prominent band of cumulus and light showers (associated with an upper level disturbance with a narrow plume of growing instability) is now at our western doorstep. The latest RAP13 shows a narrow corridor of up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE just ahead of this disturbance as it crosses the area this afternoon. CAPE profiles are skinny, limiting overall updraft intensity but shear is sufficient for a few cells to take on weak supercellular characteristics and perhaps produce some small hail and strong wind gusts.

UPDATE Issued at 1029 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026

While partly to mostly sunny skies are present across the area late this morning, clouds will be increasing ahead of the an upper level disturbance and surface trough (presently extending from Northeast Indiana to West Tennessee. The favored time window for at least scattered convection is between 2 PM and 8 PM.

UPDATE Issued at 724 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026

The forecast is on track with no major changes needed. Hourly temperatures were updated using the latest observations for the initialization of the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026

The period starts Friday night with an amplified upper trough and attendant cold front traversing the central CONUS. Increasing clouds are expected Friday night with this system progressing toward the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will cool into upper 50s to low 60s. The cold front will cut through the Mississippi Valley Saturday morning, progressing east through the day. The cold front will pass through Eastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon into the early evening, with shower and storm chances increasing over Eastern Kentucky from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon into the overnight before tapering off Sunday. Temperatures Saturday, ahead of the cold front, will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most, under southwesterly winds and strong warm advection. Saturday night, with winds becoming west to northwesterly, cold air advecting in behind the cold front will lower temperatures into the mid to upper 40s.

Sunday, as remaining showers taper off, the cold front is modeled southeast of the area. Temperatures will be much cooler across the area, some 20 to 25 degrees cooler in fact, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s for highs. Clouds should diminish through the afternoon as the trough begins to depart the area. However, Eastern Kentucky looks to be on the backside of the trough heading into Sunday night. With cold air still advecting in under light northwesterly winds and clearing skies, temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s in most areas. This could lead to patchy areas of frost heading into Monday morning, especially in the valleys where decoupling of winds is most probable.

Height rises look to occur Monday, leading to mostly sunny skies, with highs reaching the low to mid 60s, under northwesterly winds. At night, temperatures cool into lower 40s. Tuesday, a shortwave looks to skirt through the Upper Great Lakes and its main effects should remain north of the area. Conditions will feature a mix of sun and clouds under southerly winds and seasonable temperatures warming into the mid 70s.

A low passing through the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. There is an isolated chance of showers and thunderstorms next Wednesday and Wednesday night as a result. Temperatures will still warm into the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the 18z TAF issuance, but clouds will increase with a weak, broken band of showers and thunderstorms likely to impact the region this afternoon into the evening. Anticipated timing of impacts at terminals has been denoted with TEMPO and PROB30 groups. Another dying cluster of convection is possible overnight, most likely impacting terminals near and west of I-75 (SME and LOZ).

Southwest winds prevailing winds in the 7 to 15 kts range with gusts of 20 to 25 kts will diminish this evening the loss of daytime heating or with stabilization of the atmosphere from shower activity.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.