textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure slowly builds into the region over the next several days, bringing about a return to drier weather.

- A warming trend begins today, with high temperatures gradually climbing each day through the upcoming workweek.

- Expect widespread valley lows near/below freezing through next Thursday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 953 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2026

We continue to see much of the area remains plagued by low stratus this morning as upper level low continues churn near the Ohio Valley. These will lift out in some areas this afternoon, but likely returns this evening into tonight. Only more minor adjustments for clouds generated for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 635 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2026

Cloud cover is remaining more extensive than models have predicted, particularly in the southwestern part of the forecast area where all but the LAMP guidance has clear to mostly clear skies. With the more extensive clouds in place, temperatures have remained above guidance, especially in the southwest toward the greater Lake Cumberland region. Used the LAMP guidance to be more aggressive on cloud cover through this morning, and raised the hourly temperature forecast for the next several hours to reflect the warmer trend.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 502 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

The long term forecast period opens in transition, with the antecedent longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS propagating off to the east as amplified ridging sets up upstream in the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. The beginning of the period is marked by the passage of the last few shortwave impulses around the backside of the aforementioned trough. These disturbances will keep some clouds in the sky on Sunday night, but a clearing trend is anticipated through Monday as the influence of that ridging grows. The forecast guidance suite collectively resolves the mid/upper level ridge axis immediately upstream of the CWA at the start of the new work week. This feature is progged to increase in magnitude/amplitude through midweek, with LREF mean 500mb geopotential heights rising towards the 95th percentile of model climatology by Thursday. The increasing synoptic scale subsidence associated with this strengthening ridge will feed the attendant surface high pressure system over the forecast area and yield a very dry airmass throughout the atmospheric column. Collectively, these synoptics suggest that efficient diurnal processes will govern the daily sensible weather conditions across Eastern Kentucky next week. Model spread increases once the ridging gets suppressed and moves east-southeast on Friday, but before then, confidence is quite high that the JKL CWA will experience fair skies, seasonably chilly nights, and a gradual warming trend.

The most notable deviations from the baseline NBM guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids will come in the form of overnight ridge-valley temperature splits. Light pressure gradient winds and mostly clear skies should easily allow the valleys to decouple after sunset each night. As the colder air pools into these lower elevation locales on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday nights, temperatures should easily drop down below the freezing mark. While ridgetops will likely remain near to just above the freezing point, the conventionally- coldest sheltered and shaded hollows could drop down into the lower half of the 20s in this time frame. This would mark the coldest temperatures of the season thus far. NBM ensemble probabilities for MinTs less than or equal to 25 degrees peak in the 60-90% range on Monday night/Tuesday morning. This coincides with the surface high's closest proximity, which makes sense given that the ridging's eastward shift should yield a warming trend later on in the period. High temperatures should gradually moderate from widespread highs in the 50s on Monday to the upper 60s/lower 70s on Thursday and Friday. It will intrinsically become harder for lows to get quite as cold as they did earlier in the work week, but lows should remain below freezing through Thursday morning. Increasing mid/upper level cloud cover late in the period could insulate overnight lows above freezing, but this warming trend is not accompanied by meaningful low level moisture return. Expect dewpoints to remain in the 20s and 30s through the end of the period. This, in turn, will keep precipitation chances below mentionable values through the end of the forecast period. So, aside from some potential frost-related window-scraping on the chilliest mornings, very little weather-related societal impacts are anticipated across Eastern Kentucky between Monday and Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 624 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2026

Showers have significantly diminished in coverage during the pre- dawn hours this morning, with BKN to OVC ceilings ranging from 1.5 kft over southeastern Kentucky to 5.0 kft in the northwest. Southeastern locations will improve from MVFR to VFR conditions between now and midday. For those locations still experiencing MVFR conditions, once VFR conditions develop they should prevail for the remainder of the period. Clouds are anticipated in the 3.5 kft to 5 kft agl range with VFR conditions in place for much of the remainder of the period as moisture remains a couple thousand feet either side of the 850-mb level. Winds will generally be less than 10 kts through the period from a general northwest direction.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.