textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain tapers off from west to east this afternoon and evening. Expect total rainfall amounts between a half-inch and one inch, with the highest totals in the Cumberland Basin.

- A significant warming trend begins Monday. Temperatures will reach the 60s area-wide by Tuesday afternoon and could hit the lower 70s in many areas by Thursday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 1225 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1030 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

15Z sfc analysis a deep area of low pressure passing through the Deep South. This has placed Kentucky on the northern fringe of its pcpn shield, but warm antecedent conditions are resulting in just steady light to moderate rain. This large area of rain moves off to the east later this afternoon. Currently, amid east to northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, temperatures (and dewpoints) are mild in the low to mid 40s. Areas of fog are noted through the area, as well. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky/PoP grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

The long-term period opens Monday evening with a broad upper- level ridge over the Central CONUS and a surface ridge displaced further east from New England to the lower Mississippi Valley. Low-level return flow draws an unseasonably warm air mass into the Ohio Valley on the western periphery of the surface ridge. Additionally, an upper-level trough coming ashore the West Coast early in the week leads to unsettled weather for eastern Kentucky by late week.

For the interim period, the upper level ridge axis will shift eastward to over the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday while a potent shortwave trough ejects northeast out of the Pacific trough. The ridge then shifts southeast Wednesday while this initial shortwave supports a surface low tracking from southeast Montana to the Great Lakes before becoming vertically stacked. The system's warm conveyor belt jet passes over eastern Kentucky early Wednesday with GFS BUFKIT mixed-layer momentum transfer reaching 25 to 30 kts. The remaining trough energy ejects east-northeast later in the week, supporting secondary cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado Wednesday with the new low tracking north of the Ohio River Thursday night. This places eastern Kentucky under a warm conveyor belt jet again Thursday, with 850 hPa temperatures reaching 10 to 11 C. The system's trailing cold front passes through Thursday night/Friday with an area-wide rainfall expected. Overall amounts still appear light. A cooler and drier air mass spills into eastern Kentucky next weekend but there is still substantial disagreement as to the magnitude of the cold.

In sensible weather terms, expect fair, seasonable weather Monday night with lows from near 30F in cold hollows to the mid 40s on ridgetops. Tuesday remains pleasant with highs in the lower to middle 60s. The warming trend continues Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid to upper 60s and upper 60s to lower 70s, respectively. Breezy conditions develop during the day both Wednesday and Thursday, with southwest winds likely gusting to between 20 and 30 mph both days. A slight chance for showers exists Wednesday north of I-64, followed by widespread rain Thursday night through Friday. Cooler temperatures closer to seasonal averages are likely follow heading into next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026

Aside from MVFR conditions at KSYM, all the TAF sites are down to LIFR, or lower, CIGs with IFR VIS at this issuance. Showers will persist through the bulk of the afternoon before tapering off this evening from west to east but lingering low clouds and fog keep LIFR and possible VLIFR conditions going through the majority of the TAF window into Monday morning. Winds will be generally light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.