textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered pop-up storms are possible this afternoon, with the highest probability remaining near the Tennessee border.

-Temperatures warm through next week, reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 338 AM EDT MON JUL 13 2026

The long term period will open with troughing over the northeastern CONUS and a strong 500mb high centered over the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the vertically stacked low pressure system responsible for this weekends active weather pattern will have retreated to the southwest around the southern periphery of the aforementioned high, landing in the vicinity of Mississippi and Arkansas by the start of the period. At the surface, an area of high pressure will be located across the Ohio Valley with ample dry air. For Tuesday night, ideal radiative cooling conditions will allow for a mild ridge/valley temperature split, with MOS guidance suggesting temperatures will generally drop into the mid 60s for valley locations.

By midweek, the aforementioned 500 mb high will stretch eastward, with the forecast area finding itself on the eastern periphery of this ridging. Accordingly, high temperatures will rise above average on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching into the upper 80s or perhaps the low 90s. This pattern will also continue to suppress convection, even as dewpoints begin to tick up, and rain chances look to remain low across the forecast area. The potential exception is again in our far southwestern counties, where an afternoon storm or two cannot be ruled out. However, any rain chances remain dependent on the positioning of ridging over the forecast area.

Looking towards the weekend, upper level ridging will be challenged as troughing digs into the eastern CONUS. Guidance has been split regarding whether or not ridging will break down over our area going into the weekend, but the latest 00z deterministic guidance seems to be favoring the ridge breaking down locally by Sunday. NBM PoPs have attempted to average these solutions and do appear to be trending upward overall.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026

Low stratus continues to thin out across eastern Kentucky at the 18Z TAF issuance with MVFR conditions. The low clouds should continue to gradually lift into a VFR cumulus deck by mid afternoon. Showers and storms are ongoing, and are forecast to develop more this afternoon but mainly south of KJKL (most likely at KLOZ, KSME, KBYL, KEKQ, KI35 and K1A6). The showers and storms could bring gusty and erratic winds; as well as brief category reductions. Outside of convection, winds are forecast to become northeasterly at 10 kts or less during the daylight hours. Beyond 00Z light and variable winds are expected with VFR conditions.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.