textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday. Burning is not recommended as fire behavior could become erratic.

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest periods will be Sunday and Tuesday through Friday of the coming week. New daily record high temperatures will possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday and persist through much of next week as the area will be on the far eastern/southeastern periphery of an active storm track from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region.

UPDATE

Issued at 1041 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

Current observations show that temperatures are running several degrees cooler than the original forecast, especially in the northern portion of the forecast area. Thus, the main tweak to the forecast was to add in a more pronounced ridge-valley split overnight, with low temperatures bumped down a few degrees in our valleys. Hourly temperatures were also nudged towards these recent cooler observations.

UPDATE Issued at 658 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

Isolated showers are currently ongoing along the KY-TN line; therefore, the main change to the forecast was to increase PoPs and cloud cover for a few hours in this area to bring the forecast in line with current radar trends. These showers are expected to collapse this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Other than that, hourly temperatures and dewpoints were nudged to be more in line with observations, particularly to adjust for a slower drying trend this evening.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 400 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified and rather stagnant through the week. Upper level ridging will be anchored across the southeastern CONUS, while bouts of eastern Pacific energy allow for mean troughing generally west of the Plains. This results in persistent southwest flow in the middle of the country. Eastern Kentucky will remain on the periphery of traversing short wave activity, with any surface fronts likely remaining well to our northwest until perhaps towards the end of the period.

High confidence remains for a continuation of well above normal temperatures, with highs well into the 80s each day from Tuesday through Saturday, and even a few 90 degree readings for a few locations at times. Rain chances increase across the area from the northwest early next week, with better chances moving in by Thursday, with some better forcing currently predicted. A secondary peak in PoPs will occur sometime this weekend, but temporal differences amongst the models make this lower confidence.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

VFR conditions were observed at TAF issuance, and will prevail through the forecast period with just passing high clouds. Fog formation overnight cannot be ruled out in the most sheltered valleys, but confidence was too low to be included at KLOZ and KSME. Winds tonight will be light and variable, becoming southwest at 6 to 12 kts after 15z Sunday, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts. Winds will probably not fully decouple with the loss of daytime heating toward 00z Monday, especially for western TAF sites, as a southwesterly low-level jet will begin overspreading the area from the west during the evening and overnight periods. LLWS will likely be added with future TAF packages covering the Sunday night period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.