textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather returns to end the week and into the weekend, with rounds of showers and storms possibly producing heavy rain and a flood threat.

- An extended period of hot temperatures begins Monday with high temperatures reaching into the low to mid 90s and heat indices nearing or exceeding 100 degrees.

UPDATE

Issued at 649 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026

Made minor updates to Sky and hourly T/Td grids, with little change to the overall forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026

Earlier Friday, an upper level disturbance will move from the Mid Mississippi Vally into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. By Friday evening, a warm front is expected to sit north of the forecast area, as showers and storms continue overnight and through the day Saturday. Initially, better rain chances will be located across the northern portions of the Licking and Kentucky River Basins. Looking at some model and ensemble data, the 1.75 to 2.00 inch PWATs that are forecast across the area Friday evening through Sunday statistically land in the 90th percentile or higher through the three-day span; and close to 2 standard deviations away from the average. This appears to be an abnormally moist system. With the potential for heavy rainfall, and factoring in recent widespread rain across Eastern Kentucky, additional rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash flooding. As such, the WPC has put portions of the forecast area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall both Friday and Saturday. The highest risk for excessive rainfall comes Friday night through Saturday when there is the best mid-level jet energy aligned nearly parallel with the surface front, and a surface low moves along the front which looks to be roughly in line with the Ohio River. The combination of strong warm advection and forcing for ascent will allow for multiple rounds of showers and storms moving across the same areas.

Saturday evening, high pressure ridging aloft builds upstream of the area, with a shortwave diving southeast toward the area along a northwest-southeast oriented front remaining over northeastern Kentucky. This will push another round of showers and storms through the area Saturday night into early Sunday, with this front getting pushed southwest as an upper high closes off over the entire MS and Lower OH/TN valley regions. This will allow for a more stable and drier air mass to push into the area from the northeast, with a general decreasing trend of showers and storms through the day Sunday.

A 596-dm high centered just north and west of eastern Kentucky to begin next week suggests hot weather is on the way. Lower to mid 80s on Saturday slowly warm into upper 80s and lower 90s by Monday. Beyond Monday, the warming trend continues, with heat indices of 100-105F possible as the calendar turns to July. Nighttime lows will also increase with the heat dome overhead, with upper 60s to lower 70s expected Monday night, with more widespread 70s for lows Monday night and Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026

River valley fog will continue or soon develop and persist until 11z to 13z, with reductions to MVFR and IFR if not locally lower, but this is not expected to affect any of the TAF sites. In general, expect light and variable winds and non-impactful sky cover to persist into tomorrow. Winds become more southwesterly around 15z and after and strengthen into the 5 to 10 kt range. Also, between 15z and 18z, a cu field is expected to develop in the 4 to 6 kft agl range, though VFR conditions will persist. Showers and thunderstorms may begin to impact areas along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor near and after 00z, but confidence in this occurring is too low at this time to include in this TAF package.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.