textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Persistent and breezy, especially in the afternoons, southwest winds will continue pushing warmer-than-average and seasonably moist air into eastern Kentucky through the rest of week.

- Expect several consecutive days with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and mild overnight temperatures bottoming in the 50s and 60s. - Look for daily small chances for showers and storms until a stronger cold front moves through the region later this weekend.

- Any showers and storms will provide some needed rainfall across portions of eastern Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 432 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026

Heading into the weekend a closed low, located over the Northern Plains, will progress into the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes through Friday evening and Saturday.

Showers will surround the area around the systems warm front located north of Kentucky, across the Ohio Valley, and should remain north of the areas through Friday evening. Low temperatures remain elevated in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday morning, the systems cold front will reside over the Mid- Mississippi Valley trailing back into the Southern Plains. Being in the warm sector through the day, temperatures in Eastern Kentucky will soar, reaching the lower 80s across the Bluegrass, and mid to upper 80s further south and east. A line of showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the above mentioned cold front in the Mississippi Valley, and will shift east through the day. While some discrete showers and thunderstorms ahead of the main convective linear line are possible though the day, the steadier convective showers and thunderstorms get into Eastern Kentucky Saturday evening coming from the northwest, progressing southeast across the area overnight. Through Saturday afternoon, as the front approaches, winds may become breezy. BUFKIT model soundings show momentum transfer potential around 25 kts or roughly 30 mph for gusts. 12Z LREF Ensemble guidance suggests that most of the CWA has at least a 75% chance of realizing those gusts. The forecasted gusts from 15-21Z were adjusted up using the 90th percentile of the NBM.

Saturday evening, as mentioned above convective showers and thunderstorms are likely with the passage of a cold front. The area might see anywhere from a 0.50-1.0 inch of rain, with the higher totals concentrated along the Tennessee-Kentucky border. This is subject to change with higher resolution models capturing the evolution of this system as it gets closer. Winds will gradually shift from southwesterly to northwesterly being the front. This ushers in colder air, leading to Saturday night lows in the mid 40s to near 50 in places.

Sunday morning, showers will slowly taper off in the southeast, as the cold front remains over the Southern Appalachians. Westerly to northwesterly winds through the day will continue to bring cooler conditions to the region. Temperatures Sunday will feel like a shock, some 20 degrees colder, warming into the upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies and CAA will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s Sunday night.

On the back side of a departing trough under northerly flow, drier air works into the area through Wednesday. While winds remain light, RH's approach critical conditions. Temperatures during the day Monday and Tuesday generally remain in the 50s and 60s, warming into the 60s and low 70s Wednesday. At night, clear skies and light winds will along with drier air moving in will allow for substantial radiational cooling and temperatures in the 30s and low 40s. This could potentially lead to frost development if trends continue.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at all TAF sites for the 12Z issuance. Local river fog is possible in sheltered valleys early this morning but will likely not impact any terminals and mix out by 14Z. Spotty convection will be around the area this afternoon and early evening but probabilities are too low to include in any of the TAFs, at this time. Gusty southerly winds ramp up late this morning into the afternoon. Some more LLWS from the south southwest at up to 45 kts will show up this evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.