textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorms will become more prevalent today, with widespread rain chances continuing through the next seven days, including the holiday weekend.

- The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures closer to normal readings, and is likely to provide at least temporary relief from drought conditions.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

The forecast period begins with the region likely situated north of a frontal zone Thursday night as a shortwave in southwest flow approaches the region. This should support the boundary lifting north as a warm front as a sfc wave rides into the OH Valley. With the northwest lifting warm front, it is probable that chances of convection will spread north through the overnight period Thursday night. Overnight lows are still expected to be mild as the warm front lifts north across the area.

This warm front will cross the region on Friday, serving as the catalyst for widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout the day as another wave moves along the boundary and treks toward the Great Lakes for Friday night. While marginal thermodynamic indices will once again favor pulse-type, non-severe convection, the primary hazard shifts toward heavy rainfall and high precipitation efficiency. This boundary likely remains north of the area to start the weekend, before sagging back into the OH Valley and stalling to end the period. Passing disturbances and the moist airmass, with PWs per the 12Z LREF generally in the 1.3 to 1.7 inch range, or the 90th percentile, should at least be conducive for a diurnal uptick in convection for Friday to Monday. The 12Z Tuesday LREF event totals through 8 PM EDT on Monday have a min to max range of 0.75 inches to near 7 inches, while the 25th to 75th percentile range from 1.5 or 1.75 inches near the VA border to 3.75 inches in the north and west.

Recent deterministic guidance projects widespread QPF amounts ranging from 2.00 inches in the Lake Cumberland area to 2.75 inches across northeastern portions of the forecast area, with lesser amounts near 1.5 inches in southeastern KY near the West Virginia and Virginia borders, due to local downsloping effects. As a side note, since the area is dry, heavy rainfall on top of moisture starved ground could create runoff issues leading to potential hydrologic issues.

Ultimately, this period will highlight a distinct regime shift toward a much wetter synoptic setup, a stark difference from the persistent dry pattern observed over the last few weeks and months. Due to persistent cloud cover and rain, daytime highs will remain capped in the upper 70s to mid 80s, while overnight lows drop into the lower to middle 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2026

Most sites are VFR; however, showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of an approaching cold front. This will cause increasing coverage of showers and storms across the area with all sites falling into MVFR over the next few hours. Showers and storms are forecast through the TAF window as slow frontal passage occurs. This will favor lowered CIGs and VSBY and TAFs will fall from VFR to MVFR/IFR and remaining there through the TAF window. Outside of thunderstorms winds will generally be light; however, thunderstorms could create gusty and erratic winds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.