textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing widespread rain showers are expected to taper off this afternoon.

- Seasonably mild temperatures are expected over the next 7 days. - There are multiple chances for precipitation next week, with the potential for mixed precipitation types on Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1058 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026

Rain and snow is holding on a little longer than was forecast in our northern counties, and its duration has been extended slightly. The last of it should be moving out early this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 953 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026

Sent an update around 9 AM to account for colder temperatures and snow occurring over the northern tip of the forecast area. Any accumulations will be brief and light.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026

We continue to watch for some flakes mixing in for the far north early this morning as well as escorting the main batch of rain off to the east. No significant changes were made to the near term forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids as well as a tweaking of the PoPs per radar. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 613 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

An active weather pattern remains in place over Eastern Kentucky for the duration of the long term forecast period. The previously- discussed surface cold front is expected to come to a crawl in the vicinity of the forecast area on Sunday. This yields a north-south temperature gradient across the region, with a cold Canadian high pressure system to the north and a warmer/moister airmass to the south. Thus, the commonwealth looks to be positioned within a "battleground" baroclinic zone early next week. Forecast guidance collectively resolves the next upper atmospheric disturbance approaching from the west around this same time frame, although deterministic guidance disagrees upon the timing and evolution of the related surface-level system. As such, this particular long term forecast package leans heavily into blended ensemble data.

After a lull in precipitation chances on Sunday afternoon, the overnight approach of the next system yields likely PoPs by Monday morning. The type of precipitation that falls in time frame remains ambiguous, but given the presence of both the baroclinic zone overhead and the Canadian high to the north, a wintry mix of rain, snow, and ice is possible. The exact p-type that falls will be highly dependent on fine-scale details within the greater atmospheric temperature profile, and it may vary geographically. At the current temporal range, only coarser-resolution model sounding data is available, which makes pinpointing how much of what type falls in what location difficult. Those soundings suggest that a warm nose will be present, but its magnitude and persistence remains uncertain. Likewise, there is 5 to 10 degrees of spread between the 25th and 75th quartiles of the NBM surface temperature guidance for this time frame, and that spread stretches onto either side of the critical freezing point. Interests are accordingly encouraged not to read too far into any one deterministic model run's accumulation outputs, as that data will likely be bouncy over the next few cycles.

With that being said, there has been a noticeable southward shift in the LREF grand ensemble probabilities for some type of measurable winter precipitation with this system in Eastern Kentucky. Snow probabilities generally increase the further north one goes in the forecast area. The 50% contour for at least a tenth of an inch of snow in the 24 hour period from Sunday to Monday evenings runs along the Mountain Parkway corridor in the latest LREF run. At this time yesterday, that contour was contained to the north of Interstate 64, as were all >30% probabilities of at least 1 inch of snow. In the latest run, all areas north of the Mountain Parkway have at least a 40% probability for an inch of snow. However, all of this probabilistic data assumes a 10:1 ratio, which is unlikely in a mixed precip set-up like this. Snow ratios are likely to be wetter/lower than this, which will limit the snow totals realized during the event. Any ice accumulations would also undercut snow totals. Ice looks most likely between the Mountain Parkway and Hal Rogers Parkway corridors in the latest LREF data, where there are 30- 40% probabilities for at least a glaze. Previously, these probabilities were confined much further to the north, making it clear that recent guidance is bringing colder air deeper into the forecast area. As such, we will need to watch this system closely for potential winter weather impacts during the Monday morning commute.

Forecast uncertainty compounds in the wake of this early-week system. While the baseline NBM guidance currently suggests that MaxTs will return to above-freezing values on Monday afternoon, there is significant model spread in the thermal profiles aloft around this time. The drier GFS depicts cooler NE flow at the 850mb level whereas the wetter ECMWF keeps more moisture around with SW 850mb flow. This exemplifies the lack of model consensus regarding this particular system's evolution and results in 10-15 degrees of 25th/75th quartile spread in Monday night's MinT guidance. This spread straddles the freezing point once again, and given the lingering chance PoPs on the backside of the system, another round of winter precipitation cannot be entirely ruled out, especially in northern portions of the area.

As the surface synoptics shift east amidst quasi-zonal flow aloft, a mid-week warming trend emerges. The approach of additional shortwaves aloft keeps PoPs in the forecast, but the blended nature of the baseline NBM data smooths out their exact timing details. Chance to low-end likely PoPs persist through the end of the period as a result, but the warming trend means that all additional precipitation will come in the form of a plain, liquid rain. Ensemble data suggests a >80% chance of above-freezing low temperatures across the entire forecast area starting on Tuesday night, with highs forecast to rebound to above-normal temperatures by midweek.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 700 AM EST THU FEB 26 2026

At the 12Z TAF issuance, conditions ranged from still mainly VFR north of the Hal Rogers Parkway/KY-80 Corridor to generally IFR with rain, fog, and low ceilings south of that major road. ATTM more scattered batches of rain and lower ceilings are spreading into the area from the northwest. Any rainfall should stay spotty north of the Mountain Parkway with mainly VFR conditions through 18Z, though a few hours of MVFR/IFR will be possible even in the north before rain chances taper NW-SE and subsequent gradual improvements in ceilings follow during the afternoon/evening. With those improvements and clearing, we are anticipating the development of fog later tonight and it could be dense at a couple of the northern and western TAF sites into dawn, Friday. Winds will be light and variable, trending northwest during the afternoon - but remaining light.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.