textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- One more day of cold temperatures and potential light snow for some locations is ahead for Sunday. The light snow accumulation should occur primarily near/northeast of Highway 15, if it materializes.

- A dramatic warming trend begins Monday. After a chilly weekend, temperatures will soar to the upper 50s and mid-60s by Tuesday afternoon as the region thaws out.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. The high resolution CAMs still suggest the potential for minor snow accumulations Sunday morning in the northeast parts of the area - have continued the SPS in effect for this. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFS, SPS, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and keep skies mostly clear. However, it will move out late tonight and allow some high to mid level clouds to arrive for northeast parts of the area towards dawn. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper teens north to the mid 20s in the south. Meanwhile, amid light northwest winds, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid single digits. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 235 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

The forecast period begins under the influence of surface high pressure situated to the northeast of the region. A dry surface wave and associated frontal boundaries will approach from the southwest. The primary perturbation is progged to track along a warm front draped across central Canada. As this Canadian feature shifts eastward, the dry perturbation will lift through the area Monday night into Tuesday. Before this transition, Monday will remain dry due to the lingering surface high. With low-level flow already established from the southwest, a warming trend will commence. Monday highs will reflect this, reaching the upper 50s across the Cumberland Plateau and mid-40s toward the northeast. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend; however, in areas where clearing persists, sheltered valleys may drop into the mid-20s, while most other locations remain in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

By Tuesday, the region will sit behind the dry warm front leading to a robust WAA regime taking hold. Although the area is expected to remain mostly dry to start the day, temperatures in the wake of the warm front will climb into the upper 50s to mid-60s. This significant warming precedes an approaching synoptic feature, specifically a shortwave trough ejecting from the Desert Southwest toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday evening, PoP chances increase as the warm front lifts north through the area. While the primary surface feature is forecast to remain south of the region, the associated precipitation shield will persist through Wednesday. Temperatures will largely support rain, though the diurnal curve may allow snow to mix in late Wednesday night.

A second perturbation is expected to follow a similar track on Thursday, maintaining precipitation chances through Friday, with another feature arriving by Saturday. Temperatures will gradually decline from the Tuesday peak, settling into the 40s from Wednesday through the end of the period. While these values primarily support rain, nocturnal cooling will bring temperatures near freezing each night, allowing for a wintry mix through sunrise. Little to no accumulation is expected, though an isolated dusting cannot be ruled out where localized snowfall rates are higher.

In summary, the period begins dry with a warming trend through midweek. This trend halts as a series of surface waves traverse the Tennessee Valley, bringing repeated chances for rain starting Tuesday night, with a transition to a rain-snow mix overnight before returning to rain during the day.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026

VFR conditions still prevailed at the 06Z TAF issuance and will continue through the bulk of the night. A passing wave does bring increasing high clouds late overnight followed by the potential for a narrow NW-SE oriented band of snow Sunday morning, mostly likely northeast of an KIOB to KI35 line. Confidence in the placement of this snowband remains low, so again only included PROB30s for -SN and MVFR with this TAF issuance. Winds will be light and variable for the rest of the night and through the day, Sunday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.