textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest periods Tuesday through Saturday of this week. New daily record high temperatures will possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Scattered light rain showers are possible through early this evening, with little in the way of measurable rainfall. Low thunderstorm chances return late tonight and will be possible at times through this week and into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 737 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026

Made additional tweaks to PoPs through the Today period based on latest NBM guidance and current radar trends. These showers are producing little to no measurable rainfall as they are moving quickly and falling from mid-level clouds through a dry low-level environment, and that trend likely continues through early this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 530 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026

Pre-dawn update is out with an update to PoPs to match current radar trends. This shower activity is elevated and falling from rather high cloud bases over a deep, dry low-level environment. Would thus expect any rainfall amounts to be a trace just barely measurable, with gusty outflow winds also possible due to evaporational cooling as precipitation falls into the dry low- level environment.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 301 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026

Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS will remain persistent during most of the long term period. A mean, positively tilted upper level trough will be situated mainly over the western half of the CONUS, with an associated, wavering frontal boundary from the southern plains to Great Lakes. Ascending flow off the Gulf (with higher moisture content) will be more predominant further to our west and northwest, closer to the aforementioned frontal boundary, and that is where the higher POPs will be in general. However, occasional shortwave troughs pressing into the upper level ridge as they pass through the flow will probably be enough to bring scattered showers/thunderstorms into our area at times. The GFS and ECMWF agree on the two most prominent waves giving us our highest POPs on Thursday into Thursday night, and again on Saturday night into Sunday. Without any cold frontal passages through Saturday, much above temperatures will dominate the period, with temperatures influenced by the potential occurrence of clouds/precip. The most significant wave aloft will be the one next weekend, which is expected to be strong enough to finally bring another cold frontal passage, with somewhat lower temperatures by Sunday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON APR 13 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at 12z TAF issuance, and this is expected to continue through the TAF period even with light shower activity at times through early this evening, as this activity will be falling from mid-level clouds given the magnitude of dry air remaining in the lower atmosphere.

Current and future shower activity will be falling from elevated bases over rather dry lower levels. This will allow for gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 25 kts near in and near any shower activity today.

Southwest breezes will increase as surface heating increases through the daytime hours, supporting gusts of 15 to 25 kts this afternoon, highest in the Bluegrass region (i.e, KIOB). Winds will diminish with the loss of daytime heating around sunset this evening. However, a disturbance will push a low-level jet into the area after ~04z this evening, resulting in the development of LLWS at most if not all terminals.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.