textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold, dry weather persists through the daytime hours today.

- Wintry precipitation, primarily snow is expected from late this evening into Friday morning.

- Some accumulation and travel impacts are becoming more probable possible for portions of southeast KY near and south of the Mtn Pkwy where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- The pattern remains active through the end of the forecast period, although confidence remains low in each passing system's precipitation type and accumulation forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 140 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

Confidence is increasing that impactful wintry precipitation, primarily snow, will arrive late this evening into the overnight hours and affect locations mainly along and south of the Mountain Parkway. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of that portion of the area from this evening into Friday morning. There remains some uncertainty with accumulations, but the more northern and western portions of advisory should experience snow accumulations around 1 inch with 1 to 3 inches expected for locations from Bell to Perry to Martin counties and locations further south.

UPDATE Issued at 1120 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025

A cold front continues to drop south across the region with extensive lingering low clouds with additional mid and high clouds passing over. Sky cover grids were adjusted upward over the next few hours with high temperatures lowered a bit as well to correspond.

Focus continues to be on the quick moving system that will affect portions of the regions late this evening into early on Friday. Guidance appears to be trending toward a consensus of an uptick in amounts across the south with a sharp cutoff in the north from potentially an inch to only a dusting. This cutoff area appears to be somewhere near or just south of the Mtn Parkway vicinity. Some intermediate adjustments upward were made to pops in the south as well as snow amounts. This event looks to potentially end a bit quicker as well and keep things mostly snow. With the morning commute on Friday likely to be impacted in some areas, headlines will be considered for the more southern counties by the normal afternoon packages issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 742 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025

Forecast is still fairly well on track this morning. Loaded in the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast was on track with the current conditions. This only resulted in minor adjustments. Continuing to see a band of light snow pass just north of the CWA. Can't rule out that far northern Fleming and Rowan County may see a few flurries into the next hour, but otherwise there should be no impacts other than low clouds. A few locations are reporting some fog and visibility restrictions, despite NW flow and cloud cover, but given how low the CIGs are in these locations, expect that it's more a factor of the low clouds and not actual fog. Either way, expect VIS to improve over the next few hours, but for CIGS to remain low through much of the day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 243 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

The forecast period commences with surface high pressure building across the region in the wake of Fridays departing synoptic system. Aloft, persistent upper-level southwesterly flow is anticipated, which will sustain relatively mild temperatures for Saturday. However, a pronounced temperature gradient is forecast to establish itself over the area. Concurrently on Saturday, a perturbation translating within a stalled upper-level trough positioned over the Hudson Bay will advect a predominantly dry cold front southeastward through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. Deterministic model runs indicate this mostly dry frontal boundary will traverse the CWA; yet, due to the limited moisture available, PoP are forecast to be negligible. Subsequently, an approaching shortwave trough and an associated surface low-pressure feature moving out of the Rockies will track eastward along this established zone of baroclinicity.

This secondary, more moisture-rich system is expected to yield higher precipitation probabilities, with a mixture of rain and snow beginning early Sunday morning and enduring through late Monday morning. The specific precipitation type will be critically temperature-driven; daytime thermal profiles are generally supportive of rain, whereas overnight temperatures will favor a wintry mix or snow.Model confidence remains low concerning the precise thermal profiles and the exact track of the low-pressure center. Consequently, there is limited confidence in current deterministic snowfall totals. Following the departure of this system, surface high pressure is expected to rebuild across the area for Tuesday. However, model trends suggest yet another system will approach the region by the end of the forecast period, potentially bringing another round of rain, wintry precipitation, and the risk of stronger winds, particularly on Wednesday.

The entire period is characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances traversing the area, introducing a variety of precipitation types punctuated by transient interludes of high pressure. Temperatures throughout the forecast are generally expected to remain below average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

Low clouds and even some reduced visibilities at times are occurring near and behind a cold front. A mixture of MVFR and VFR was reported at issuance time in the more southern locations while IFR and locally lower conditions were reported futher north. A mixture of VFR and MVFR should occur from near KSME to KLOZ to south of KPBX during the first 6 hours of the period with a deterioration fro ceilings in most places to MVFR or IFR between 00Z and 06Z as mainly snow overspreads southern portions of the area. Snow should continue spreading east through 09Z and and then begin to taper off from the west thereafter. The snow may bring IFR or lower reductions in visibilities at times as well. Northern locations such as KSYM should not experience any precipitation. A brief mix with freezing rain or rain may occur before the precipitation tapers off late tonight and early Friday. Reduced ceilings of MVFR north and IFR or lower south should linger as the precipitation tapers by the 12Z to 18Z timeframe. Winds will generally be light and variable throughout the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-112-114-116.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.