textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather persists at quite oppressive levels through the rest of the week, likely peaking on today.

- Mostly dry weather is anticipated through Thursday, before chances for showers and storms return to end the week and over the weekend.

- A few strong storms and heavy rainfall will be possible Friday into Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 719 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

Did a quick update to adjust to the latest obs and trends this morning. Given there is once again patchy dense fog opted to hoist an SPS again this morning through 13Z to cover this hazard. Outside this no major impacts weather wise before heat builds in through through the late morning and afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 350 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

There is good support in the various ensembles and deterministic guidance that the upper level high that has plagued the Ohio and Tennessee Valley this week will breakdown for the weekend. This will lead to more zonal like flow in the Ohio Valley and open the door to more subtle shortwaves within the broader flow. This pattern will also lead to a little more notable uptick in deeper moisture with PWATs starting to climb toward the 1.6-1.8 inch range based on the mean of the primary ensemble outputs. This will lead to daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Given the increased deeper moisture noted by PWATs closing in on the 80th percentile and potential for multiple rounds of convection over the weekend WPC does have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall starting Saturday and going to at least Sunday. The risk will likely be highly dependent on how many rounds of convection we receive. The SPC did add in a day 3 marginal area wide for Saturday, as MUCAPE remains in the 4000 J/kg range and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg could lead to isolated damaging wind threat. SPC did mention that risk could be higher if MCS happens to develop and seems reasonable given the more zonal flow aloft and lack of shear. All combined there will be some relief in temperatures to what was a relentless stretch of hot and humid days. This as afternoon highs are expected to climb into the lower 90s and again adjusted these down some from the NBM to match the trends in the other guidance.

Getting into next week, the ensembles and deterministic guidance is in reasonable agreement that we will see a weak frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley sag southward toward the Tennessee Valley. This feature combined with more notable height falls from a upper low moving across the Great Lakes will usher greater chances of showers and thunderstorms through midweek. This will peak around Tuesday and Wednesday, with PoPs generally in the 40-60 percent chance range. The risk of heavier rainfall will continue as PWATs remain in the 1.6 to 1.8 range and again will be dependent on how many rounds of convection we see. The good news is afternoon highs will decrease toward the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday given the potential for rain and greater cloud cover.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

High pressure will keep the weather quiet, with mostly VFR conditions through much of the period. However, we are already seeing some fog develop based on the satellite trends tonight mainly in the typical river valley locations. Stuck closer to persistence forecast through the night, with some temporary restrictions possible at most sites in the MVFR to IFR range for fog potential. This will lift around 13Z and we will be left with mainly VFR skies as diurnally driven cumulus develops around the 4 kft level through the afternoon. The winds will remain light and variable generally below 5 knots.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.