textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the weekend, with all of the area expecting showers and thunderstorms at some point.

- Some thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall and strong winds gusts on Saturday and Saturday night. - The air behind a weak cold front may bring some minor relief from the muggy conditions on Monday. A more significant cold front should bring more showers and thunderstorms at midweek, followed by a more noticeable drop in humidity.

UPDATE

Issued at 1145 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also fine tune the PoPs through the night per the current radar and CAMs guidance. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a weak pressure pattern in place over Kentucky with little to prevent the development of showers and thunderstorms this past afternoon and into the evening. These continue to pop up mainly along outflow boundaries from earlier storms. At this point, the convection is mostly on the western fringe of the CWA - though the CAMs suggest more activity is possible this evening in the southeast parts of the JKL CWA. Any storm will be slow moving and bring torrential rains with possible high water incidents. Expect some widely scattered convection through the night with partly cloudy skies and areas of fog developing - becoming locally dense in the valleys and places that saw rain. Currently, temperatures are running in the lower 80s where it hasn't rained to the mid 70s in the wetter areas. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints remain quite elevated in the mid 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with an idea of the scattered activity from the CAMs overnight. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 722 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Sunday morning, some showers and storms will occur, most likely along and south of the I-64 corridor. This is subject to models correctly resolving a cold front over northern portions of the CWA. This cold front is from an upper level low located just north of Maine. To the west, high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, while a secondary upper level low, originating out of ALberta, is expected to progress across Southern Canada.

For sensible weather, expect showers and storms across the area Sunday, with chances decreasing heading into the late afternoon and evening. Clearing skies and light winds will allow for patchy fog to develop and temperatures to drop into the mid 60s.

As high pressure briefly builds in Monday that secondary upper level low will dig into the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. A stray shower or storm may be possible along the TN/KY line, otherwise mostly sunny skies and dry conditions are expected with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Monday evening, temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 60s to near 70.

Tuesday, the upper level low will continue across the Great Lakes as the systems cold front will extend southwest through the Ohio Valley into the Central Plains. Afternoon temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. Ahead of the cold front model PWAT ranging from 1.8 to 2.0 inches along with dew points in the low 70s and temperatures in the upper 80s will all combine for hot and muggy conditions. A 40 kt LLJ combined with 1500-2500 MUCAPE, 0-3km SRH ranging between 150-250 m2/s2, and DCAPE near 1000 J/kg suggests severe weather is possible Tuesday afternoon. As such the SPC has put the northern part of the CWA (Mountain Parkway and north) in a Day 5 Slight Risk for severe weather, highlighting at least isolated to widely scattered damaging wind potential. Temperatures are expected to cool into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday the cold front should be southwest of the forecast area, however, isolated to scattered storms are possible across the Big Sandy and including the southern parts of the Licking and Cumberland River Basins. Otherwise, decreasing clouds through the day, with temperatures cooler, in the low to mid 80s, under northwest winds. Cooler air continues to work in, with lows in the lower 60s Wednesday night.

While Thursday and Friday will remain dry, the next shortwave looks to come out of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest potentially in time for next weekend. Temperatures Thursday will be cool in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with temperatures cooling into the low 60s at night.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026

Scattered thunderstorms look to avoid any TAF terminal for the rest of the evening but cannot be ruled out entirely. Then, assuming large breaks in the clouds tonight, fog development can be expected, especially where rain occurred. The fog will bring localized IFR or worse conditions. Look for the fog to dissipate shortly after sunrise Saturday morning, but additional thunderstorm development is expected by the middle of that afternoon. Away from any storm, winds will be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.