textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy conditions are expected today and Tuesday with highs from 75 to 80F.

- After an isolated to scattered morning shower activity today (with possible thunder), widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday night and last through Thursday morning. Beneficial rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.75 inches are expected, highest near the Tennessee border.

- Cooler, below-normal temperatures settle in for the second half of the week, along with periodic low chances for showers heading into the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 418 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

The period begins Tuesday evening with a cold front situated from western PA through central and southwest OH and continued southwest into the Arkansas, with the nose of a mid-level jet streak and progressive shortwave (embedded with in a primary parent trough) moving toward eastern Kentucky. There is high confidence that widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur as this shortwave and jet energy crosses the area overnight into Wednesday, pushing the cold front to over or just south and east of the JKL CWA by Wednesday evening. This is followed by another shortwave and surface low riding along the front through the Tennessee and Cumberland Valleys. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms primarily over southern and eastern Kentucky Wednesday night into Thursday.

Model spread for QPF across the forecast area continues to decline, primarily due to a continued reduction in higher-end amounts across the south, with the entire CWA now depicted between 1.00 and 1.75 inches, highest along the tier of counties bordering Tennessee.

Shower activity gradually winds down in the south and east the second half of Thursday as surface high pressure moves into the area. This dry window will be short-lived, as additional perturbations within persistent mean troughing aloft are progged to dive southeast toward the Commonwealth, bringing low chances for showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, for the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail through the TAF period. An increase in mid and high clouds is anticipated through the early morning hours, with convection possible for northern and central sites mainly between 07z and 16z with a passing disturbance. These will continue to be covered by PROB30 groups in the TAFs for when probabilties of showers or a stray storm and potential MVFR reductions are highest. A weak southwesterly low-level jet will also impinge across northern and western sites late tonight. LLWS was not mentioned at this time, but could still briefly approach mentionable criteria at SYM and IOB around daybreak. Gusty southwest winds of 18 to 23 kts are then expected at most if not all sites from late morning through the afternoon hours on Monday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.