textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will be prevalent through Saturday night or Sunday, followed by much lower probabilities during most of the work week.

- Heat and humidity will become oppressive during the new week.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 517 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

The long-term period opens on the first day of the new week and also of a weather pattern change. Model agreement is good on Sunday, showing an upper-level high over the Mississippi Delta with a building ridge axis extending northward into Northwestern Ontario and Northeast Manitoba. Meanwhile, an unseasonably deep upper- level low resides over the Northern Rockies and adjacent regions. At the surface, a weak cold front will be draped through the Ohio Valley and likely over or just northeast of the JKL CWA. High pressure resides over the Southeast US and out over the Central Atlantic.

High pressure will strengthen at the surface and become more entrenched over the eastern Kentucky Coalfields through midweek as the upper-level high strengthens and drifts northeast, eventually peaking near ~598 dam across the JKL CWA on Wednesday and Thursday. Initially, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue on Sunday with the frontal boundary still in the vicinity. As that frontal boundary retreats northeast early next week, heat and humidity will build as 850 hPa temperatures soar well above 20C. The threat for storms will become very isolated by Tuesday and Wednesday with the upper level high in close proximity. More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return heading into the July 4th weekend, but increasing model disparity lends low confidence in the specific details.

In sensible terms, scattered showers and storms can be expected again on Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows from 65 to 70 degrees. Mostly clear and hot conditions follow for the entire work week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Monday and lower to mid 90s from Tuesday onward. Nighttime lows stay mostly in the 70s. Heat indices will reach new highs each afternoon, with many places eclipsing the 100F mark on multiple days. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and may bring localized relief for some, but most locations will probably stay dry from Monday to Thursday, perhaps becoming a little more unsettled for Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026

Reported conditions were largely VFR at the start of the period, but localized IFR or worse conditions were occurring in an area of showers/thunderstorms advancing into the JKL forecast area from the west. This activity was most widespread as it was moving into our northern locations. This has been handled with a tempo group for MVFR conditions in TAFs north of KSME and KLOZ this afternoon/early evening. Worse conditions will occur at times in some places, but confidence was not present to warrant including worse conditions in TAFs. Otherwise, showers/thunderstorms will be a possibility through the period, but low confidence in timing/location precludes using more than Prob30 in TAFs.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.