textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A colder and drier air mass continues to move into the region, and will persist well into next week. - Frost is expected this weekend, with freezing temperatures also possible. The coldest conditions will be in the valleys early in the mornings on Sunday and Monday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 428 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026

The long-term period begins Sunday night with a series of embedded shortwaves within the northern jet stream. Of relevance, a broad upper-level low will be positioned over Ontario, with an upstream trough digging near the northern Rockies. Cyclonic flow around the Canadian low will maintain west-northwest flow aloft across eastern Kentucky.

Conditions will remain dry across eastern Kentucky through Wednesday as high pressure dominates the region. Sunday and Monday nights, temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid-30s, with colder spots dipping into the lower 30s. Recent NBM guidance has exhibited a cold bias, so temperatures were blended with higher-resolution models to nudge values upward, bringing the forecast back within the 25th to 75th percentile range of overall guidance. Frost and localized freeze conditions will be most likely in these colder spots, while patchy river valley fog will also be possible overnight.

Temperatures will warm significantly Tuesday and Wednesday as upper-level heights rise and surface high pressure shifts across the Southeast. Under mostly clear skies and light westerly flow aloft, efficient daytime heating within a dry air mass will support afternoon highs climbing into the mid to upper 60s both days (5-10 degrees above seasonal normals).

The pattern turns much colder and more unsettled late in the week. A vigorous northern-stream shortwave diving out of western Canada will carve out a deep, anomalous longwave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS. An attendant cold front will sweep through the Commonwealth late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing increasing clouds and increasing rain chances.

The core of the upper trough is modeled to move overhead on Friday, pushing 500 mb heights below the 5th climatological percentile and ushering in a brisk Canadian air mass on breezy northwest winds. Highs Friday and Saturday may struggle to climb out of the 40s, with overnight lows potentially dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s. With model soundings suggesting steep low-level lapse rates alongside northwest upslope flow, lingering showers could mix with or transition to the first flurries of the season across the higher terrain of southeast Kentucky Thursday night into Friday before surface high pressure restores dry conditions for the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 113 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2026

MVFR and low-end VFR ceilings were across much of the central and southern portions of the forecast area at the 06Z TAF issuance. Ceilings are forecast to break up from north to south during the night, with ceilings dissipating area wide through 12z. Assuming clouds do dry up, localized valley fog with IFR or worse condition should develop again, but it's not expected to impact TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected to return areawide late in the morning and last through the end of the period. North to northwest winds at less than 10 kts are expected until around 00z Sunday before becoming light and variable through the end of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083-104-106-108-111-114.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.