textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A passing disturbance will bring continued chances for showers this morning.

- A more significant system brings a higher potential for widespread rain and higher rainfall totals during the middle of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 954 AM EST MON NOV 2 2026

Models are really struggling with the light precipitation across the area with this event. Based on radar trends, the NBM was scrapped in favor of the HREF for the PoP forecast, which seems to be somewhat representative of what is happening currently. Also sent out an update for hourly temperatures, using the latest observations as the starting point.

UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EST MON NOV 2 2026

A few adjustments to hourly pops were made based on radar trends with the areas of light rain/showers mainly to increase pops over the next couple of hours in the southeast. Adjustments were also made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints based on recent observation trends.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 535 AM EST MON NOV 2 2026

From Tuesday night through Wednesday, the upper level ridge axis shifts to the Gulf to the Southeast U.S. Coast. Meanwhile the upper trough axis remains west of eastern KY through Wednesday as the upper level low within it evolves over portions of the MS Valley. A lead shortwave trough rotating around it should reach the lower OH Valley tonight and gradually move across the Commonwealth through Wednesday evening/night. At the same time the upper level low tracks toward the Great Lakes. The associated sfc frontal zone should progress across the Commonwealth. Deep southerly flow with this system will transport deep moisture into eastern KY, with mean PW per the 00Z LREF remaining generally in the 90th percentile or higher on Wednesday with the PW peaking between the 95th and 99th percentile range during the afternoon and evening. This system will have better forcing than the weekend system as well and showers will be widespread and rainfall totals greater. The current forecast storm total ranges from around 0.75 in the rain-shadowed areas downstream of the Pine/Black Mtn vicinity to the 1 to 1.5 inch range for locations further west. 00Z LREF mean rainfall totals were in the 0.50 to 0.8 inch range though higher end amounts for the 24 hour period ending at 7 AM EST on Thursday though higher end amounts (95th percentile) were in the 1 to 1.75 inch range per the 00Z LREF. WPC has maintained a marginal risk of excessive rain during that period, though our recent dry trend is a mitigating factor.

In addition to the showers and potential for some thunder, winds aloft will increase as the system approaches and gusts in the higher terrain near the VA border are likely to exceed NBM deterministic values. Wind gusts in the highest terrain were adjusted upward for Tuesday night to early Wednesday.

Chances for showers will decrease behind the midweek system, but linger perhaps as late as Thursday night or early Friday. There remains some uncertainty with the overall pattern to end the week, but a generally drier period is currently anticipated from later Friday through Saturday night with temperatures trending colder under broad troughing over the central to eastern Conus. Some frost or near freezing temperatures could also occur Friday night and/or Saturday night. Another upper low may approach the mid MS Valley/Lower OH Valley vicinity near or after the end of the period and result in a return of unsettled weather.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 725 AM EST MON NOV 2 2026

Mainly VFR or MVFR conditions were observed in eastern KY at issuance time, with passing areas of showers/light rain. Mainly VFR, with some MVFR reductions at times will linger during the first 3 to 6 hours of the period as the light rain/showers diminish from south to north between 12Z and 18Z. PROB30 groups were used for a few hours initially for KIOB, KSYM, KJKL, and KSJS where some sub VFR reductions are most probable in showers. Once the showers diminish, low and especially mid level clouds will linger for much of the rest of the period with VFR prevailing. Some non TAF site valley locations could experience reductions due to fog late in the period, but at this time, the TAF sites are not expected to be affected.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.