textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The last of the rain from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will taper off tonight early early Monday morning.

- Warm and mainly dry weather will dominate the early part of the new work week.

- Rain potential returns for late week, followed by much colder weather next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1133 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Upslope flow continues to produce lingering drizzle and low stratus across the forecast area; thus, the main change to the forecast was to keep drizzle in the forecast for much of the area overnight. Current satellite imagery has shown stratus eroding to our west, but this trend has stalled right on our doorstep given this upslope regime. Later tonight, it still appears possible that clouds will slowly erode from west to east, with the expectation that this would allow for quick formation of fog. If clearing occurs, fog could become dense, which may necessitate fog headlines for these areas in future forecast updates, although this remains conditional on a timely erosion of stratus. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 419 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026

The extended period unfolds Tuesday through next Saturday, shifting eastern Kentucky from unseasonably warm weather early in the week to a sharp early-autumn freeze potential by next weekend.

On Tuesday, a strong subtropical ridge will remain anchored across the Southeastern US and Gulf Coast, keeping 500 mb geopotential heights above the 99th climatological percentile over the Deep South and between the 85th and 97th percentiles over eastern Kentucky. At the surface, broad high pressure positioned off the Atlantic Coast will maintain steady south-southwesterly return flow across eastern Kentucky. This pattern will yield warm, dry, and summer-like conditions for mid-October. Afternoon highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will climb into the lower to upper 80s, roughly 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals. Tuesday and Wednesday forecast high temperatures of 81 and 82 at the JKL airport are within 2 to 3 degrees of the established record highs of 84, set back in 1985. In fact, the 00Z LREF ensemble shows a 20 percent chance of reaching 84 degrees on Tuesday and a 50 to 60 percent chance on Wednesday. Model soundings Tuesday and Wednesday show steep low-level lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb, with a pronounced dry layer above the boundary layer. To account for this boundary layer mixing, raw model guidance was blended with the NBM to slightly lower dew points both afternoons.

Farther west, an upper-level trough ejecting from the Rockies into the Northern Plains will push an initial, slow-moving surface cold front into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Cloud cover should gradually increase Wednesday afternoon from the northwest, with rain shower chances slowly ramping up late Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.

Some model spread remains regarding Thursday and beyond, driven by ensemble differences in the strength of the Southeast ridge and the timing of the ejecting Plains shortwave. The initial cold front entering the Ohio Valley late Wednesday is shown by a majority of models to stall and briefly lift back north as a warm front on Thursday ahead of an approaching surface wave. However some solutions are slower. NBM-1D viewer at the Jackson airport has a 10-degree spread in high temperature guidance (69 to 80F), though ensemble consensus favors highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. Isolated to scattered showers are forecast through Thursday night.

The secondary cold front sweeps across eastern Kentucky Friday morning. Showers and storms will be scattered to numerous in the morning, accompanying the frontal passage. Despite the early precipitation, pre-frontal warming might still allow daytime highs to reach the low to mid 70s ahead of the boundary. Showers will shift southeast toward the Virginia, West Virginia, and Tennessee state lines during the afternoon as the front clears the area. Winds could be breezy at times, with gusts likely up to 20 to 25 mph. The probability of the area seeing gusts up to 30 mph currently ranges from a 40 to 50 percent chance in the latest 00Z LREF ensemble guidance. Strong post-frontal cold air advection (CAA) will surge into the Commonwealth late Friday afternoon and evening. Showers should diminish Friday night as low-level moisture grows increasingly shallow and temperatures drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

While there remains a great deal of uncertainty between individual deterministic models (mainly the ECMWF and GFS), ensemble cluster guidance shows overall good agreement on a deep troughing pattern on Saturday. While GEFS-heavy clusters hold onto cold northwest flow and low-level post-frontal clouds slightly longer into the afternoon, dominant EPS/CMC clusters favor faster eastward progression of the trough axis, promoting clearing from west to east as a 1036 mb surface high builds in from the Plains. The NBM has the area cooling 15 to 20 degrees from Friday to Saturday, with eastern Kentucky remaining under continuous northerly cold air advection (CAA). Highs in the mid to upper 50s on Saturday will run 10 to 15 degrees below climatological normals. If guidance holds, clearing Saturday night under these pattern dynamics will allow low temperatures to tumble into the upper 20s to lower 30s, effectively ending the growing season, at least in the sheltered valleys. This will be monitored, and if guidance holds and confidence grows, frost or freeze products may be forthcoming at the end of the week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 832 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026

Low ceilings generally corresponding with LIFR conditions are expected overnight, along with occasional drizzle. Some lifting or eroding of ceilings will begin to arrive from the west overnight; however, this erosion of the low stratus deck will be quickly allow for fog development, maintaining LIFR conditions until daybreak. Then, fog and low stratus will gradually lift and dissipate during the day on Monday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.