textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and mainly dry weather will prevail through the weekend.

- Frost and freezing temperatures are likely late tonight and early Sunday in many valleys.

- Showers and/or thunderstorms are possible at times from Sunday night to Friday, with the greatest probability from Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 1015 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

Temperatures had risen several degrees above freezing in all areas by 9 AM EDT and the Frost Advisory was allowed to expire. A passing disturbance will bring the threat for isolated convection in the southwest and a few sprinkles further north. Behind that shortwave, skies clear and winds slacken as sfc high pressure builds into the TN and OH Valleys. Frost and freezing temperatures are anticipated in the current Freeze Warning area, with frost potential for the remainder of the area. As the 12Z data arrives, this potential will be fine tuned. Hourly grids were updated based on recent observation and satellite trends.

UPDATE Issued at 807 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

Chilly conditions are in place as the sun rises across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures have bottomed out in the lower to middle 30s across the Bluegrass and Licking River basin and generally mid 30s to near 40F elsewhere. These temperatures should warm quickly into the 40s over the next hour or two. Additionally, high clouds should gradually pull away to the east through early afternoon and be replaced by an expanding cumulus field. The hourly forecast has been updated with the latest observations.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 526 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

The long-term model suite analysis opens Sunday evening with broad troughing over the Northeastern CONUS and Eastern Canada. Multiple perturbations are passing through this feature including a shortwave trough extending from Northern Ontario to the Lower Ohio Valley and another one over the Central and Northern Plains. Further west, an upper level ridge axis extends from the Baja California northward into the Great Basin while an ~580 dam upper level high is situated off the British Columbia coast. Meanwhile, an ~558 dam closed low is situated off the California coast. At the surface, a decaying cold front extends from Sault Ste. Marie, MI southwest to over the Ozarks with a subtle weak warm front extending southeastward from Michigan toward the Ohio River. Further upstream, a stronger around 990 mb surface low is situated east of Lake Winnipeg with a second cold front extending westward to along the British Columbian Rockies.

Low-level WAA will be underway Sunday evening and night as the initial shortwave and associated dampening warm front lifts northeast through the area. The WAA may lead to a few light showers late Sunday night, mainly in the north before somewhat better chances (30 to 40 percent PoPs) arrive on Monday as diurnal heating leads to building instability as the first cold front stalls north of the Ohio River. Meanwhile, additional energy riding from the Aleutians over the Northern Pacific High will dive into the troughing over eastern Canada and lead to an amplifying positively-tilted trough that will begin digging into the Northern Plains on Monday, eventually capture the upper low off California, and then carve a full-latitude trough all the way to the Lower Mississippi River by Wednesday night, thereafter becoming negatively-tilted late in the week over the eastern portions of the continent. As this trough unfolds, it will propel the strong but slow-moving cold front, initially over the southern Canadian Prairies, southeastward toward the Ohio Valley and eventually crossing eastern Kentucky Wednesday afternoon and night. Multiple pockets of upper level vorticity energy passing aloft will support several waves of low pressure and rounds of rainfall riding along the frontal boundary from late Tuesday through Thursday. At this point, instability with this second cold front appears to be meager, limited by cloud cover and precipitation. Behind the front, below normal temperatures return for Thursday and Friday.

In sensible weather terms, look for increasing clouds Sunday night and a bit of a breeze to develop overnight after initially slackening. It will be cool with lows near 40F in the cooler eastern valleys to the upper 40s west of I-75, over the Bluegrass, and atop thermal belt ridges. A few showers are possible late, mainly in the north. On Monday, the threat for showers and even a few thunderstorms will continue. It will be breezy and warmer with high temperatures forecast to reach the middle 70s in most areas. Continued mild and fair conditions (aside from a lingering small shower chance near and north of I-64) follow for Monday night and Tuesday with lows in the 50s and highs from 75 to 80F. Occasional rain with embedded thunderstorms is then expected from Tuesday night through early Thursday. Two-day rainfall amounts ending on Thursday have a 70 to 80 percent probability of exceeding 1 inch and a 10 to 40 percent probability of exceeding 2 inches, highest probabilities west of I-75 and lowest over the Big Sandy basin. Following the cold front, high temperatures are only forecast to reach the 60s on Thursday and Friday while overnight lows dip into the 35 to 45F range.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026

VFR conditions without significant wind are forecast through the period. High clouds at TAF issuance time will retreat southeast and exit by 17Z. An extensive cu field will then develop between 7-9k ft AGL this afternoon, with a potential for a few isolated showers near and west of the I-75 corridor. Light and variable winds this morning will become northerly to westerly at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Gustier winds are possible with virga and any shower activity.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KYZ044- 050>052-059-060-086>088-104-106>120.