textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather persists at quite oppressive levels through the rest of the week.

- Mostly dry weather is anticipated through tonight, before chances for showers and storms return to end the week and over the weekend.

- Thunderstorms from Friday to the middle of next week may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall, potentially leading to a few instances of flooding.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 351 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

The long term period opens in the midst of a pattern change as the upper level ridge continues to break down over eastern Kentucky. By Saturday, the center of the 500 mb high will no longer be directly overhead, providing some relief from the heat. However, temperatures will still be firmly above average across the forecast area on Independence Day, with highs likely in the low to mid 90s, and given dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s, conditions will still be quite muggy. In conjunction with this heat and moisture, a deeply unstable environment will build, and with minimal capping, scattered diurnally driven convection is expected to develop. This high instability, in addition to steep low level lapse rates, will promote a wet microburst risk with any storms that do form; accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for isolated damaging winds. With weak flow aloft, shear will be minimal, and convection will tend towards being pulse-like in nature. Notably, SPC does highlight the potential for a more organized damaging wind threat if an MCS can develop upstream, although confidence is very low in this outcome. In addition to the low end severe risk, moisture will be favorable for torrential downpours; LREF mean PW values are generally in the 1.5-1.7 in range on Saturday evening, indicating an anomalously moist environment (generally in the 70th-80th percentile compared to climatology). To cover the potential for heavy rain and perhaps isolated flash flooding in the strongest storms, the Weather Prediction Center has maintained a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall across the entire forecast area. Although isolated severe weather and flash flooding are possible, it is worth noting that thunderstorm activity is not currently expected to be widespread in the afternoon and evening; thus, although some areas will be impacted by storms, it appears likely that most areas will remain dry. Regardless, interests are encouraged to remain weather aware for the duration of any outdoor Independence Day celebrations.

Following typical valley fog development overnight Saturday, Sunday will present another opportunity for showers and storms. With the upper level ridge mostly decayed over our area, convective coverage will likely be higher than Saturday. A broad area of height falls will overspread the area as an upper level low translates east towards Lake Superior, with general troughing over the Midwest. At the surface, an area of low pressure will be located in the Great Lakes, with a frontal boundary draped to the west. This boundary will gradually sag towards Kentucky as the upper level low translates to the southeast, providing an additional mechanism for showers and storms. The environment will still be anomalously moist, with LREF mean PW values marginally higher than the day before in the 1.6-1.8 in range (largely ranging from the 80th to 90th percentile across the forecast area); thus, storms will again be capable of producing heavy rain. Accordingly, WPC has kept eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) for Excessive Rainfall on Sunday and Monday, although flash flood potential will depend on whether multiple rounds of showers and storms end up tracking over the same area. Boundary parallel flow further indicates that flooding from training convection could become a concern, particularly with such a slow moving front, although confidence in storm timing remains low in such a nebulous pattern. Thankfully, this pattern should bring further relief from the heat, with highs dipping into the low 90s on Sunday and some areas seeing highs in the 80s on Monday (and storm activity could reduce these temperatures further!).

Looking ahead, rain chances will continue through the end of the period. Models generally depict the aforementioned front continuing to sag to the south towards Tennessee, although great spatial disagreement still exists at this time. Overall, unsettled weather is expected, with the synoptic pattern featuring troughing over the eastern CONUS and the potential for additional shortwave activity. Heavy rainfall will still be a concern as the environment remains moist, but thankfully, this cloud cover and rain should further mitigate the heat. Temperatures will continue to run cooler, and by the middle of next week, highs in the mid 90s should be nothing more than a distant memory.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026

High pressure will keep the weather quiet, with mostly VFR conditions through much of the period. Cumulus has developed, and has mixed into the VFR range and this should gradually mix out over the first few hours of the period. We continued to stick close to a persistence forecast for tonight, with some temporary restrictions not out of the question at some point between 08Z and 13Z at some or all of the TAF sites though confidence was not high enough to include reductions at this juncture. Non TAF site locations could drop to the IFR range or possibly lower. Any fog should lift around 13Z and we will be left with mainly VFR skies as diurnally driven cumulus develop between 3 and 5 kft agl level through the afternoon. The winds will remain generally light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.