textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler than normal temperatures are forecast to begin the work week. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday morning may approach daily records, especially at Jackson.

- There is an increased risk for severe weather and flash flooding with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the mid to late week period (Wed night-Fri).

- The location, magnitude, strength, and timing of convection from mid to late week will evolve over the next few days, so continue to monitor forecasts.

UPDATE

Issued at 600 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations. This generally led to a bit warmer temperatures to begin the day for some northern locations where low clouds have been most persistent. Otherwise, initial valley fog will lift and dissipate through around 3 hours past sunrise (9 AM EDT).

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 455 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2026

Ahead of an upper level wave, a warm front is expected to gradually lift north and east of eastern KY Tuesday night into Wednesday, ushering in a warm and moist airmass into eastern Kentucky. This upper level feature and the cold front nearing the Lower OH Valley that will likely begin to stall could lead to isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a storm Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, mainly for locations near and north of the I-64 corridor . Mainly dry weather is generally the consensus of guidance for Wednesday in the warm sector with moisture beginning to increase across eastern KY.

A more robust embedded shortwave will move from west to east across the Great Lakes region Wednesday night. This will aid in quickly deepening a surface low to futher activate the nearby frontal boundary. Activity could reach mainly sections of eastern KY, particularly the north late Wednesday night. SPC severe outlook probabilties have shift a bit northwest with potentially the boundary a bit further north or northwest. The pattern will likely become more mesoscale driven at times, with characteristics of a MCS like pattern potentially setting up across the Ohio Valley. This makes predictability on the lower side, but either way the pattern will become increasingly more active especially by Thursday given the synoptic features at play. Moisture will be abundant with model suites showing around a 60 to 80 percent chance of seeing greater than 1.75 PWAT values by Thursday. Another interesting feature showing up in the deterministic data has been a southern stream disturbance along and near the Gulf coast and how that will play into the moisture potential. The guidance, including LREF means, continues to suggest decent chance of seeing MUCAPE values climb to 1250-2500 J/kg Thursday afternoon, but there has been a bit of a downward trend in instability over the past 12 to 24 hours in the LREF. The effective shear is generally a bit more lack luster at around 25-35 knots, but this could allow for at least some organization of convection. Overall the main threat at this point would be damaging winds given the high freezing levels noted while sampling area forecast soundings. That said, there would be a risk of heavy rainfall as well, with ample southwest flow and good access to deep Gulf moisture. Also noted, the high freezing levels and aforementioned PWATs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range (Values running around 90th percentile or higher for this time of year). The ECMWF EFI also noted a decent signal in the SOT suggesting some heavy rain potential. The NBM QPF deterministic values have trended down somewhat to the 1.5-2.5 inches of rain from Wednesday afternoon into Friday. Something else to note Thursday is there will be a strengthening low level jet and decent mixing is noted in the forecast sounding data. Guidance continues to point toward the potential for gusty winds even outside of thunderstorms in the 25-35 mph range, with ECMWF EFI even more notable for strong wind potential compared to climatology and GEFS showing similar signals in the various ensemble perturbations. This setup bares watching through the week to see how the guidance trends.

This boundary will move southward to end the week and this would aid in bringing in drier weather by late next week into the weekend. However, this could be short lived, as some guidance is showing another storm system dropping in by Sunday. It should be noted that the guidance really diverges at this later timescale.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026

Prior to TAF issuance, VFR was reported at the TAF sites with low clouds more prevalent in the north. These had bases generally between 3.5 to 6kft agl. Valley fog has been evident on satellite imagery through the night where there were breaks in the clouds. At this time, have continued to have the TAF sites not affected by any visibility reductions in fog. However, some non TAF locations have been down to IFR if not near airport min and these areas should continue to experience times of MVFR and IFR or locally lower reductions through 13Z before the fog lifts and dissipate through about 14Z leaving VFR in all locations. Otherwise, winds will initially be light and variable and should average from the northwest between 14Z and 23Z at 5 to 10KT. With the high settling across the area winds should become light and variable to end the period. A few valley locations are expected to experience MVFR to IFR reductions in visibility in fog after 03Z to 04Z, though TAF locations will not be affected.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.