textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures rise to the middle and upper 80s by the start of the weekend. - Dry conditions remain in place through Saturday, but a pattern shift will bring daily shower and thunderstorm chances back to the region from Sunday into new work week.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 316 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026

After a dry and tranquil period, the extended brings back chances of precipitation and keeps these chances in place every day from Sunday through next Friday.

The strong ridge that's been in place across eastern KY and much of the far Southeast conus will begin to degrade Saturday night into Sunday morning as a strong shortwave moves through, allowing for lowering heights and for frontal boundaries to finally be able to progress southeast towards the CWA. The first of these will reach the Ohio Valley by Sunday morning, connected to a strong low pressure system moving across New England, and another low moving into the Northern Plains. It will quickly drop south into eastern KY during the day Sunday, but will then stall overnight, before the west side of the state sees the front continue to lift back north as a warm front during the day Monday. This is likely due to increasing heights across the eastern half of the Ohio Valley, while a strong upper level low takes shape across the Central Plains. As the upper level low continues to lift northeast traveling along the outside edge of the ridge, the associated surface system will also move northward, pivoting the western edge of the front northward as a warm front (in western KY), but keeping it stationary across eastern KY. The front will remain positioned across eastern KY through Tuesday as the above-mentioned upper level low weakens into a shortwave and moves east across the state. The surface front will finally lift completely north of the state and dissipate on Wednesday as the upper level ridge begins to re-establish itself. While high pressure should be in place for Thursday and even into Friday, eastern KY will find itself on the return flow side of the surface high, with continued SW flow which will allow moisture and precipitation chances both days, especially during daytime peak heating/mixing.

As for sensible weather, with the frontal boundary lingering around eastern KY for a few days, daytime high temperatures will stay fairly steady-state, but warm and humid, in the mid and upper 80s, from Sunday through Tuesday. Then as the front finally lifts north on Wednesday and warmer return flow remains in place through the end of the period, allowing temperatures to continue to modify warmer, into the upper 80s and low 90s for both Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will also be very mild, in the upper 60s and low 70s through the period. Overall not expecting any large airmass changes, so also not expecting any swings in temperature.

As mentioned at the beginning, shower and thunderstorm chances are on tap each day, especially during the afternoon with peak heating and mixing. Best daily chances for precip will be from Monday through Wednesday as the shortwave passes from east to west across the region allowing for extra lift/energy, combining with the pivoting warm front across the CWA Monday through Tuesday, and then increased southerly flow on Wednesday as high pressure takes hold to our east.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026

VFR conditions prevailed over the terminals at TAF issuance. Any localized fog in the deeper valleys at forecast issuance will burn off by 12 to 13z but should not have any impacts on the TAF sites. Otherwise, high clouds will persist through the period and will be accompanied by a diurnally-driven shallow cumulus field from through this afternoon. Light and variable winds will become southwesterly at less than 10 kts by ~15Z and continue through the early evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.