textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and mainly dry weather will prevail through the weekend.

- Isolated frost will be possible along and north of the I-64 corridor tonight.

- Frost is increasingly likely late Saturday night and early Sunday and could be extensive in valleys.

- Although there are chances for showers and/or storms at times from Sunday night to Friday, chances for showers and thunderstorms peak Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 410 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

The period is expected to begin with troughing from eastern Canada into the eastern Conus while an upper level ridge axis should extended from into the Four Corners and and parts of the Great Basin. Further west an upper level low is expected to be meandering to the west of the CA coastline. This will leave northwest flow in place from the Plains to the OH Valley to the eastern seaboard. Initially a shortwave is expected to be moving across the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley vicinity with yet another shortwave upstream of that trekking across the MT/WY to Dakotas area. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure is progged to be in place from the Southern Plains/TX to the OH and TN Valleys. Further upstream an area of low pressure should be tracking across Ontario with a trailing front into the upper mS Valley to portions of the Plains to Rockies.

Sunday to Monday night, the region will begin in northwest to westerly flow aloft with a shortwaves tracking across the Great Lakes and OH Valley late Sunday night to Monday. The upper flow should become more westerly and eventually southwesterly as an upper level low evolves over Manitoba and into Ontario and a trough begins to take shaper over parts of the Central Conus/Upper MS Valley to northern Plains. At the same time, the sfc low in Canada should move into Quebec with the trailing front working into the eastern Great Lakes to mid MS Valley to OK/Southern Plains. Moisture and instability with the shortwaves crossing the area late Sunday night to Monday, so only isolated to scattered pops were carried to begin the period.

Tuesday to Wednesday night, the upper level trough will shift into the western Great Lakes to mid MS Valley with one or more preceding shortwaves Wed and Wed night. An associated cold front should cross the area at mid week with a secondary front approaching late Wednesday night. Moisture will be more abundant with this front and pending the timing, enough instability and shear could exist for a few strong storms. Some variations of 00Z AI ENS and GEFS based Convective guidance has some lower end probabilities Tuesday or Wednesday. Chances for showers and some storms peak during this timeframe, generally from Tuesday evening to Wednesday night.

The upper level trough axis is progged to move east of the area for Thursday into Friday, with west to northwest flow aloft returning. The secondary boundary should pass eastern KY on Friday with sfc high pressure building into the OH Valley. Colder air returns behind the fronts. However, additional shortwaves in this flow should result in rounds of clouds and small chances for showers at times and this should be a limiting factor for how cold low temperatures should get for Thursday night.

Although some very light QPF is possible where isolated to scattered convection occurs late Sunday night to midday Tuesday, more widespread, meaningful rainfall is anticipated from late Tuesday to Wednesday night along and in advance of the mid week cold front. Probabilities from the 00Z LREF are roughly a 50 to 70 percent for 1 inch or more of rainfall over the next week with nearly all of this likely to fall Tuesday night to Wednesday night. Rainfall of this magnitude should help to keep drought status nearly steady across eastern KY.

Following the cold start on Sunday, temperatures should moderate back into the 60s for Sunday, with even milder temperatures for Monday and Tuesday ahead of the mid week cold front. Colder temperatures are then forecast to settle across the Commonwealth for mid to late week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026

TAFs are currently VFR with this TAF issuance. A passing weak cold front will bring increased chances for showers; especially at KSYM, for the next hour or so. CIGs will remain VFR but once the front moves through the region, lingering clouds are expected but will decreasing in coverage through the rest of the TAF window. Along with lowered CIGS, increasing southwesterly winds will exist through frontal passage but once the front crosses through the region, winds will shift to the northwest and diminish for the overnight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052-059-060-086>088-104-106>120.