textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A dry and fluffy snow event continues into Saturday, primarily across southeastern Kentucky. Highest accumulations are expected near the KY-VA border.

- Cold weather lasts through the weekend, with at least a brief warming trend following early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1125 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

radar trends and the latest high resolution CAMs guidance indicated that the threat of accumulating snow has retreated from another tier of counties so ended the WSW there while keeping the rest going into Saturday. Updated the PoPs and snow amounts for this as well as the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the WSW, NPW, HWO, SAFS, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows deep low pressure passing to the southeast of Kentucky with its snow shield stretched back northwest into southeast parts of this state. This has a sharp edge to the snowfall and as a result we were able to take Rockcastle Jackson County out of the advisory this evening. The rest of the area will see the snow continue with some backbuilding anticipated on its fringes through the rest of the evening. Currently, temperatures are running in the upper teens northwest to the mid 20s in the far southeast. Meanwhile, amid north to northeast winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints range from the low single digits northwest to the low 20s in the southeast. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with an earlier freshening of the HWO and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 416 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

Intense surface low pressure should be well off the NC coast at the start of the period, and pulling away to the northeast, as surface ridging builds toward us from the west. In between these two features, upslope flow containing low level moisture and steep lapse rates in the DGZ will probably result in ongoing flurries for at least the southeast portion of the forecast area. However, with the moisture being shallow, it shouldn't amount to much more than that, and it will be tapering off as warming/drying occurs beneath a steep inversion during the day Sunday. Low clouds will then decrease during the day.

Light winds will favor valleys decoupling from the low level flow on Sunday night. Models suggest clouds lowering and thickening for our southwest counties during the night, which would limit radiating there. Our remaining locations stand a better shot at good radiating conditions with fewer clouds, which could result in very cold temperatures again for valleys, while developing warm air advection once the ridge departs would keep ridges milder.

Warm air advection persists on Monday ahead of a cold front. Its associated clouds passing over during the day will probably bring virga. Models are suggesting the deeper moisture aloft will dry up about the time low levels moisten enough to allow for precip. At this point a few flurries may be forecast with a sub-20% POP. The weakening cold front is expected to make it to KY Monday night under northwest flow aloft. However, a combination of a southern stream shortwave coming out of the southwest CONUS and a series of northern shortwaves diving southeast into an eastern CONUS trough will work to pull the large scale eastern CONUS upper trough a bit westward. This flattens our flow aloft and also promotes surface low development over the souther plains. That combination stalls the front probably over or just south of KY on Tuesday. Warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of the approaching frontal wave and in advance of a shortwave trough could bring precipitation on Tuesday and/or Tuesday night. Temperatures look marginal for rain vs. snow in a north/south gradient over the area, but any precip shouldn't be very heavy.

After this point, model solutions start to show more variation in timing/location of shortwaves and surface systems. A blend of models being used yields a forecast (including precip potential) which can be expected to change. Both the GFS and ECMWF have very cold air making a comeback by next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 1140 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026

A band of light snow continues over far southeast Kentucky late this evening. CIGs with this will likely not get any lower than MVFR, but VIS reductions to IFR or worse, at least briefly, will be possible with any heavier bursts of snow - likely confined to terminals southeast of the TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions hold into Saturday morning before CIGs decline to MVFR. Winds will generally be northeast to north at 5 to 10 kts through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for KYZ085>087- 110-113-115>117.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Saturday for KYZ088-118-120.