textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Valley locations generally east of I-75 and south of I-64 should experience sub-freezing temperatures late tonight into early Sunday morning.

- Significant warming occurs in the upcoming week, with the potential for several consecutive days in the 70s to perhaps lower 80s for highs, along with mild overnight lows in the 40s to lower 60s. - A trend towards a more active weather pattern is looking to take shape during the second half of next week. More significant and widespread rainfall is possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 322 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026

With a broad area of high pressure sitting off the coastal Carolinas in the Atlantic, southwesterly flow around the high works into the Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valley through Tuesday.

A shortwave trough moves through the area which could lead to low end shower chances Monday afternoon. Winds will remain out of the southwest, with gusts of 20 mph possible in the afternoon. Temperatures are expected to warm into the lower 70s. At night, mostly clear skies and light southerly winds will make for ideal ridge-valley split conditions in the eastern valleys and hollows of Eastern Kentucky. It is in these areas where lows could cool into the lower 50s. Elsewhere, in the western valleys and ridgetops, temperatures may cool into the upper 50s to low 60s.

An area of low pressure is modeled to progress out of Southern Alberta through Monday, entering the Great Lakes Tuesday. A mix of sun and clouds will occur Tuesday, with deep southwesterly flow allowing warm air to advect into the area, leading highs into the lower 80s. Clouds begin to increase overnight into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Tuesday night, the NBM keeps temperatures elevated in the upper 50s to low 60s for much of the area. While this is likely because its factoring in increased cloud cover ahead of the front, current guidance suggests that the cloud cover doesn't work into the area until after midnight. Therefore, from roughly 8PM to midnight skies may be mostly clear under light southerly flow. These conditions favor decoupling in valley locations, where temperatures could cool off another 5-8 degrees from whats in the forecast and before clouds move in. With all this said, some valleys and hollows of Eastern Kentucky may drop into the low to mid 50s, while ridge tops stay in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The approaching cold front will bring rain and thunderstorms to the area through Wednesday. PWAT values are expected to creep up just ahead of the frontal passage. The LREF 00Z ensemble for the area show a 1.1-1.2 inch mean value range, which falls around the 95th percentile making this anomalous for the time of year. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall in southwest portions of the area on Wednesday. Further model guidance will need to be monitored before becoming more concerned hydro-wise, especially given the drier conditions in place.

Thursday through Friday, the cold front looks to stall south of the area, continuing to bring periods of rain to the area each day along with a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday.

Saturday, moisture wrapping around a persistent coastal high pressure will allow for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. This is ahead of another approaching low pressure system and its cold front which may impact the area later Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday look to remain 5-10 degrees above normal, in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook for temperatures and precipitation have Eastern Kentucky in a 40-50% probability for above normal conditions.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and will hold through the day. Winds will be light and variable through the period thanks to high pressure building overhead.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-084>088-104-106>120.

Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ079-083.