textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorm chances will persist through the end of the week. The greatest coverage is expected from Tuesday through Friday. Some of those storms could arrive as organized clusters with a potential for strong to damaging wind gusts. - Isolated to scattered instances of excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to elevated concerns for flooding - especially for mid-week.

UPDATE

Issued at 725 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 505 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

The most current model data continues to present a pattern aloft that favors the formation of storm clusters - any of which could intrude on the weather for eastern Kentucky through the bulk of the week. Right now, SPC has Tuesday highlighted as the greatest concern for severe weather (damaging winds) from this development with a Slight Risk outlined in our northeast counties - will continue to highlight this in messaging and social media. Please keep monitoring this developing, potentially impactful, weather situation.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Eastern Kentucky is still poised to experience rather active weather during the long term forecast period, although specific details remain shrouded in mesoscale uncertainty. Confidence is increasing that swaths of very heavy rainfall will set up across portions of the Ohio River Valley as a significant pattern change takes place. An amplifying ridge over the South-Central CONUS will budge up against the forecast area on Tuesday and turn the flow aloft northwesterly. A series of low-predictability shortwave disturbances will ride around the periphery of that ridge and produce multiple organized thunderstorm complexes known as MCSes (Mesoscale Convective Systems). Seasonably warm temperatures (highs in the mid/upper 80s and lows near 70) and a very moist airmass (dewpoints in the 70s and PWATs between 1.7 and 1.9 inches) combine to provide more than enough instability for strong thunderstorms. Each passing shortwave will provide sufficient shear for these organized storm complexes, which could modify their own environment as they evolve. Textbook theory suggests that the SW side of each complex could be a prime area for renewed development with subsequent rounds, and we will also need to monitor for any residual outflow boundaries left behind by earlier rounds. While the first rounds of activity are progged to primarily affect NE KY and the Big Sandy Basin, the threat should shift southwest over time. This is reflected in the SPC and WPC outlooks.

With the afternoon forecast update, SPC added a Slight Risk of severe weather on Tuesday for most of the JKL CWA. Damaging wind gusts are the favored convective hazard type given the MCS/clustered storm mode, but mesoscale boundaries could yield a localized risk for additional hazard types. Any severe weather risk will be accompanied by a threat for excessive rainfall, and WPC has maintained a Slight (Level 2/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for NE KY on Tuesday. These NE locales will be the areas with the potential for antecedently wet grounds from activity during the short term forecast period. Given the more widespread coverage of strong storms and heavy rain on Tuesday though, the Slight ERO expands to the entire CWA on Wednesday. Flash flooding is most likely wherever storms engage in training and/or backbuilding behaviors. So, we will need to monitor the output of higher-resolution forecast models for parameter spacing that favors said behaviors.

All of this activity will culminate in the approach of a cold front in the latter stages of the period. In general, increased late week cloud cover should work to suppress the early week heat as time passes. Temperatures are forecast to modulate back towards more climatologically-appropriate values in NE KY by Thursday while higher temperatures remain in the forecast for the Cumberland River basin. The resultant temperature gradient is visible in the grids on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, which tracks given that forecast guidance has trended towards the aforementioned boundary stalling out in the vicinity of the area. On the south side of this boundary, there will be additional rounds of showers and storms. The intensity and organization of that late-period activity is highly uncertain, but this trend towards a prolonged period of wet weather is concerning. Stay tuned for further forecast updates, and ensure that you have multiple reliable ways to receive watches and warnings should they be needed.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON AUG 10 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing at all the TAF sites at the start of the 12Z forecast period. The valley fog is not too extensive this morning and will dissipate over the next hour or so. Then attention turnd to the possibility of more showers/thunderstorms developing during the day. However, there isn't enough confidence for anything more than a PROB30 group in TAFs, and pretty much after sunset - especially those sites outside of the Cumberland Valley. A better chance of storms may intrude from the north to northwest later tonight and PROB30s have been included for this affecting the sites outside of the Cumberland Valley most directly. Away from any storms, winds will be light at less than 10 kts generally from the southwest through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.