textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering light snow showers will taper to flurries early this morning. - Much colder air lingers into Tuesday morning, but a mid-week warming trend remains on track with soaking rains to follow.

UPDATE

Issued at 105 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

The lingering light snow showers are drying up and tapering to flurries with no additional impacts expected. Accordingly, the Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire with a caution about leftover slick spots on area roads. Did also include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, WSW, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1045 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026

Radar returns a tier or two of counties east of I-75 into the eastern CWA have a connection to moisture that originated from Lake MI. However, the cloud bands have shifted far enough east so that the band no longer has a fetch across the major axis of Lake MI. The activity across the region is resulting in fluffy additional accumulations across that region. The activity remains rather persistent near the VA border. With stronger returns headed into Leslie County opted to extend the Winter Weather Advisory there to match the expiration of counties to the southeast. For Bell County, returns and obs near I-75 suggest mainly just flurries there so the Winter Weather Advisory was allowed to expire at 10 PM EST. Lapse rates from the surface to 850 mb have decreased since the daytime hours however, BL rh remains at 70 to 80 percent or better across the north and east, with values near 90 percent or higher in much of the Winter Weather Advisory. These values gradually diminish over the next few hours following the loss of a better fetch from Lake MI and thus activity should gradually taper to flurries across the eastern part of the CWA through around 3 AM EST or so. In this scenario the 00 NAM likely has a better handle compared to HRRR runs. Much of the area not in the Winter Weather Advisory has an SPS in effect.

At this point, it is likely that we will go to an SPS for much of the area as the snow showers likely decrease in intensity and to highlight the slick road threat for the overnight hours. Trends will continue to be monitored.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026

A bit of an uptick in snow shower activity has occurred this evening as a bit of an increase moisture from Lake MI moves across the area. This is expected to be a bit more substantial east of I-75 with the increase in moisture shifting east across the east and southeastern counties over the next few hours. 850 mb temperatures remain rather cold around -13C in mild cold advective northwest flow regime.

As we have moved past nightfall, the potential for travel impacts in some areas has increased as pavement temperatures will cool. The impact potential will persist until the snow showers taper off to flurries later this evening into the overnight. The SPS was reissued for locations not in the Winter Weather Advisory with the Advisory for Bell and Leslie counties extended until 10 PM EST for this evening round of activity while the remainder of the Winter Weather Advisory through midnight remains valid. Accumulations this evening of a dusting to half of an inch are possible with localized amounts around 1 inch possible in more persistent areas of snow showers north and west of the advisory. In the Winter Weather Advisory counties, a half inch to one inch this evening should be common with isolated higher amounts in most persistent areas of snow showers and in particular above 2000 feet elevation.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 517 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026

The long wave pattern will feature progressive and fairly amplified flow across most of the CONUS through the long term period. A broad trough will start out positioned from the Great Lakes through the Gulf Coast states. Upstream, a positively tilted short wave trough will be aligned from the northern Plains/Rockies through the Pacific Northwest, with ridging seen just off of the West Coast. The short wave trough will cruise southeast, moving over the middle Mississippi River Valley by late Thursday. Meanwhile, additional short wave energy will be inbound from south central Canada by late in the work week, also helping to maintain troughing in the East. A temporary flattening of the flow occurs by early next week, although by that time, model differences regarding smaller scale features increase more substantially, lending to lower confidence in the forecast.

Mostly cloudy skies will linger for most on Wednesday, with warming temperatures in moderate low level warm air advection. Highs will be in the mid 50s, with at least a small chance of light rain as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will then stall across our area Wednesday night into Thursday, with another surge of moisture nosing in from the west southwest from 925-850 mb, reinforcing clouds and better rain chances after midnight. As the better mid and upper level support arrive on Thursday, surface low pressure will gen up along a nearly stalled frontal boundary and pass through the TN/KY border, bringing a soaking rainfall to the area. Highs will range from the 40s north of the Mountain Parkway to the upper 50s bordering Tennessee.

Regarding the rainfall, the ECMWF continues to be the more bullish model with forecast PWATs above 1 inch nosing in across portions of the Cumberland Valley, with the GFS showing more modest moisture return. Instability remains low, and the residence time of the higher PWATs will mainly be limited to the 12z Thursday through 00z Friday timeframe. The ECMWF probabilities for exceeding an inch in 24 hours remain in the 50-60% range across southeastern Kentucky; however, these higher numbers have generally shifted southeast with time. Probabilities for exceeding 2 inches in 24 hours have trended down from the 00z run, now generally around 10%. Additionally, streamflows are running in the normal range for the Cumberland, as this basin avoided the embedded bands of heavier rain seen across portions of eastern Kentucky last Thursday and Friday. As such, significant river rises remain less likely at this time.

The rain will taper off Thursday night, as low pressure and its attendant cold front exits to our southeast. Dry weather returns from Friday through Sunday morning, as surface high pressure takes hold. Temperatures will cool off a bit for Friday, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s, but still near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Readings will then rebound into the 60s for Saturday. The next weather system approaches the area Sunday into Monday, with a return of rain chances; however, confidence remains low on the details this far out with PoPs only peaking at around 40%. Highs will range from around 50 north, to the lower 60s south.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026

Still some light snow showers moving through the forecast area early this morning with a potential for some brief MVFR conditions. These will dry up through the rest of the night with limited impacts possible for the eastern terminals for another few hours. Unadulterated VFR conditions follow through the day with just a high deck of clouds around. Winds are west southwest to northwest at 5 to 10 kts and should gradually decrease to nearer to 5 kts on average or even light and variable during next few hours - remaining at those speeds through around 15Z, before becoming southwest at 7 to 12 kts with some gusts into the 15 to 20 kts range as the next weather system begins to approach into the end of the period. In addition, some LLWS from the southwest at up to 50 kts will be possible later this evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.