textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly to partly sunny skies, mild days, and chilly nights persist through at least midweek.

- Light, patchy frost may develop tonight and Monday night in sheltered valleys away from the area's lakes, rivers, and larger creeks. Fog is more likely near those bodies of water.

- The next chances for rain enter the forecast as the calendar changes to November, so interests with outdoor Halloween plans are encouraged to monitor for forecast updates this week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 313 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026

At the start of the long term period, a 500 mb ridge will be centered over the eastern CONUS, with troughing over the West. Initially, a shortwave will be lifting northeast along the periphery of this ridge, with another shortwave following closely behind. By Tuesday evening, these waves will merge, and this energy will work to flatten the ridge. Flow will become southwesterly aloft, and though weak ridging looks to attempt to build in again by the end of the workweek, this pattern change will be relatively short lived as a more well defined wave approaches the forecast area by the weekend.

Overall, the weather looks to be very uneventful through the end of the workweek. At the surface, an area of low pressure will initially be located in northwest Iowa, although this low will quickly lift north in accordance with aforementioned shortwave. A frontal boundary previously stalled over Ohio will also lift north as a warm front at this time, with no effect on eastern Kentucky's weather. Instead, surface high pressure to the southeast will dominate our local forecast, with light southwesterly winds at the surface. This pattern will allow for some very modest moisture advection, with surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 40s in some locations later in the workweek. Meanwhile, a weak shortwave embedded within southwesterly flow aloft will move through the area late Tuesday/early Wednesday, although in the absence of better moisture, its main impact will be a brief increase in cloud cover. This will keep lows warmer than in previous days, with valleys more in the low 40s than the 30s, marking an end to any frost threat for now, although nightly fog formation is still expected in typical valley locales. Otherwise, no impactful weather is expected... only ample sunshine. Highs will be above average but also pleasant, with temperatures rising into the low to mid 70s each day and lows in the 40s, with moderate ridge/valley temperature splits developing overnight.

A more notable pattern shift looks to arrive next weekend as a more well defined shortwave pushes its way northeast toward the forecast area. A moist air mass will settle over eastern Kentucky, with LREF mean PW values increasing to around 1" by late Saturday. Around this time, PoPs begin to tick up. Nonetheless, the vast majority of LREF members keep Halloween evening dry, with higher confidence in rain on Sunday as LREF mean PW values peak in the 1.2-1.3" range. Even so, the exact timing of this system remains uncertain, and will require some refining in subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026

A ridge of high pressure will remain in place from the Gulf into the OH Valley and Appalachians through the period. This will result in primarily VFR for much of the period, with only a few passing high clouds from time to time. Winds will also remain light. Valley fog formation along the larger creeks, rivers, and lakes is anticipated again between about 04Z and 14Z and reductions to IFR or lower are possible. Some of the guidance including LAMP and Consshort suggests KSME may be affected with some MVFR reductions for a couple of hours near 12Z. Confidence in this was not high enough to include at this point and kept the persistence forecast of fog not affecting the TAF sites. What fog that develops should lift and dissipate by 15Z and give way to VFR to end the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.