textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm conditions are expected for much of the next week. The warmest periods will be today as well as Tuesday through Saturday of this week. New daily record high temperatures will possible, if not likely, on the warmest days. - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Monday and persist through much of this week as the area will be on the far eastern/southeastern periphery of an active storm track from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes region.

UPDATE

Issued at 1101 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

Main change late this evening was to add a modest ridge-valley temperature split as temperatures fall into the upper 50s in the more sheltered valley locales. The surface pressure gradient should strengthen overnight to near 4mb across the area, resulting in occasional mixing even into the deeper valleys. Anticipate low temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 50s in the sheltered valleys to near 70F atop the thermal belt ridges. Chance PoPs and thicker cloud cover should arrive in the I-64 corridor and Lake Cumberland areas by around 5 AM EDT and spread across the most of eastern Kentucky through mid-morning Monday. The lowest rain chances (around 15 percent) will be found across the upper reaches of the Cumberland River Basin while the highest chances (near 60 percent) will be over the southeastern Bluegrass.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

After near record to record-setting warmth this afternoon (JKL set a new daily record high of 85F), temperatures will cool back through the 70s this evening and into the 60s after sunset under high clouds. This will allow relative humidity levels to rise back above critical levels, reducing the wildfire danger. Forecast appears to be on track, warranting no substantive changes with this update.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS will remain persistent during most of the long term period. A mean, positively tilted upper level trough will be situated mainly over the western half of the CONUS, with an associated, wavering frontal boundary from the southern plains to Great Lakes. Ascending flow off the gulf (with higher moisture content) will be more predominant further to our west and northwest, closer to the aforementioned frontal boundary, and that is where the higher POP will be in general. However, occasional shortwave troughs pressing into the upper level ridge as they pass through the flow will probably be enough to bring scattered showers/thunderstorms into our area at times. The GFS and ECMWF agree on the two most prominent waves giving us our highest POPs on Thursday into Thursday night and on Saturday night into Sunday. Without any cold frontal passages through Saturday, much above temperatures will dominate the period, with temperatures influenced by the potential occurrence of clouds/precip. The most significant wave aloft will be the one next weekend, which is expected to be strong enough to finally bring another cold frontal passage, with somewhat lower temperatures by Sunday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026

VFR conditions prevailed across all terminals at the 00Z TAF issuance. Winds have also slackened as the boundary layer has started to decouple. A low-level jet will increase across the area overnight ahead of an approaching cold front. Model soundings do suggest some stability in the lowest levels of the atmosphere though as dry air allows for relatively efficient surface radiation, so LLWS was included in the overnight TAF given the magnitude of the jet (peaking at 40 to 45 kts at 2k ft AGL). Clouds will generally increase overnight with rain chances (accounted for by PROB30 groups) arriving toward daybreak in the I-64 corridor and spreading across the remainder of eastern Kentucky by midday Monday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.