textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, muggy, and mostly dry weather takes hold for today. Afternoon highs around 90 degrees combined with high humidity will push peak heat indices between 95 and 100 degrees.

- A progressive cold front brings showers and numerous thunderstorms on Friday, with a threat for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall.

- High pressure ushers in a brief break of cooler and drier air for Saturday, before unsettled weather and rain chances return Sunday through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 136 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026

No significant changes made to the forecast aside from adding in the latest surface obs and preparing grids for the 18Z TAFs. Grids have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 735 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026

A decaying MCS is approaching northern Kentucky from Southern Indiana at update time. While continuing to weaken for now, the latest SPC mesoanalysis is suggesting a pool of better instability passing from Central Kentucky into the Mid-Ohio Valley by late morning. Shear and forcing are minimal, but it is conceivable that some of this instability may aid in maintaining some weak convection into area near and north of I-64 by late morning/early afternoon. Forecast confidence is low, but slight chance/chance PoPs were added north of the Mountain Parkway for a few hours either side of midday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 155 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026

An upper low spinning over Ontario during the short term period will persist there through most of the long term period. Short wave troughs rotating around it will be the main influence on our weather. One of these will be passing over the Great Lakes region on Sunday, working to deepen overall troughing over the eastern CONUS and supporting a cold front which will move through the JKL forecast area from northwest to southeast on Sunday afternoon and evening. Due to the deepening trough, there will be a bit stronger flow aloft and more shear (although nothing phenomenal) than during preceding recent rounds of thunderstorms. Should there be enough instability, some strong storms won't be ruled out on Sunday, but the degree of instability remains uncertain. Once the front and its inclement weather move through, noticeably less humid air will arrive Sunday night and carry into the workweek.

Multiple additional waves will rotate through the eastern CONUS trough Tuesday through Thursday. However, there is much less model agreement on their timing and strength. That being the case, forecast confidence for precipitation drops off considerably after Monday. There is a general consensus that some semblance of an eastern CONUS trough will persist, though, which would prevent any return to oppressive heat and humidity.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026

Weak surface high pressure will keep the area dry through much of the TAF window. Widespread fair weather cumulus clouds have developed around the 3,500 to 4,500 foot level this afternoon, along with remnant low clouds from a decaying MCS but these clouds should stay VFR before dissipating overnight. Clear skies overnight will give way to increasing and lowering clouds ahead of a cold front that's forecast to dive southeast after 12Z/Friday. PROB30s are in place to account for pulse thunderstorm development ahead of the front through the end of the TAF. Any thunderstorm that develops at or near a TAF could bring brief reduction in category; as well as, gusty and erratic outflow winds. Southwesterly winds are expected throughout the afternoon with gusts upwards of 15 knots, those winds will decrease overnight before picking up again Friday morning ahead of the approaching cold front. Friday winds will be out of the southwest sustained around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.