textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect increasing temperatures and humidity as a cold front approaches the area for this afternoon sparking scattered showers and storms.

- A few of these thunderstorms could contain strong to locally damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall, mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours.

- Drier conditions then prevail this weekend as temperatures climb towards daytime highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 725 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 505 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026

The most current model data continues suggest the current forecast is on track for a dry and gradually warming period for Kentucky from this weekend and beyond with low 90s on tap for highs to start the new work week. We still see the potential for convection in the south on Tuesday and for more of the area on Wednesday, but it is certainly not a slam dunk at this point.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Eastern Kentucky enters the long term forecast period on the back side of the upper level trough axis responsible for Thursday's convective activity. A weak secondary boundary situated within the resultant northwesterly flow regime will push through the CWA on Friday, but with a drier airmass actively advecting into the column aloft, this is not expected to yield any substantial sensible weather impacts. Expect partly cloudy skies, a shift to north- northeasterly surface winds, and slightly cooler conditions (highs in the low to mid 80s) across the forecast area to wrap up the work week. Ridge-valley temperature splits and river valley fog formation is plausible for Friday night into Saturday morning, as post-frontal high pressure is progged to build into the forecast area this weekend.

Under the influence of that surface high pressure system, expect mostly clear conditions to prevail on Saturday and Sunday. Sensible weather conditions this weekend will be diurnally modulated, with cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon hours and continued valley fog formation at night. Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the weekend though, as winds will veer back towards a more southerly orientation by Sunday. Saturday's highs in the mid to upper 80s accordingly trend up a few degrees on Sunday before approaching the 90s early next week.

Confidence remains high that a warmer and drier pattern will remain in place across the region early next week. Forecast guidance collectively resolves mid/upper level ridging across the Ohio River Valley on Monday and Tuesday. Modeled 850mb temps near/above 20 degrees Celsius in place favors high temperatures in the lower 90s at the surface, but the blended model guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids is likely a little bit too warm/moist. Diurnally mixed dewpoints will likely under-perform NBM guidance and remain in the low to mid 60s. This should prevent heat indices from climbing into the triple digits. While it will feel seasonably hot outside on these two days, heat headlines should not be needed.

That upper level ridge looks to broaden out by midweek, with a series of disturbances expected to propagate around its flattened northern periphery. The PoPs related to these disturbances have actually trended downward relative to previous forecast packages, with only slight chances for isolated convection included in Tuesday's forecast grids. Slightly better rain chances arrive ahead of a stronger disturbance and cold front on Wednesday, although that system's specific forecast details are masked by the increase in model spread at that temporal range. Despite that uncertainty, the midweek increase in PoPs should work to provide some relief from the early week heat. In short, temperatures should trend back towards climatological norms as we transition from August into September.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026

Any lingering fog will clar out by 13Z. Otherwise, an upper level trough and its accompanying sfc cold front will gradually approach the area today. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should hold off until after 19Z. Outside of any storms, winds will be light - generally 5 kts or less - from the south to west.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.