textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers or perhaps a stray storm remain possible near the TN border through around midnight.

- Record or near record highs are anticipated for Sunday along with gusty winds to at least the 20 to 30 mph range in the afternoon to evening are anticipated ahead of a cold front.

- A well-defined and rather strong cold front on Sunday night will bring more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances along with a noticeable cooldown. Strong to severe storms are possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 900 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026

Temperatures in more sheltered valleys, especially eastern valleys were dropping off more quickly than the previous forecast. Adjustments downward for those areas were made to both hourly T and min T based on afternoon mixed dewpoints to allow for a higher magnitude ridge/valley temperature split. The more eastern sheltered cold spot locations may reach the upper 40s overnight. Recent HRRR runs had higher gusts and as to some extent ConsShort from once the nocturnal inversion mixes out between 10 AM and Noon on Sunday through early in the evening. BUFKIT momentum transfer from the GFS was also higher than the previous forecast. Opted to nudge sustained winds and gusts, particularly in the more open terrain upward for Sunday in the warm sector with extensive prescribed/controlled burning ongoing across eastern KY. Most of the late winter systems have been windier and gustier than NBM deterministic during peak heating/mixing and there no reason to believe that anything will be different on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 257 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026

The period will begin with a cold front pushing southward across the Ohio Valley. This feature will push out of the area on Monday and we will see cooler and drier air pushing into eastern Kentucky in the wake. This will lead to afternoon highs about 30 degrees lower than what we have forecast for Sunday. However, these temperatures in the mid to upper 50s for Monday are closer to normal for this time of year. Synoptically the deterministic and ensemble guidance show an area of surface high pressure pushes into the Great Lakes and we will see this feature dominate the weather through Tuesday. Tuesday will begin with easterly flow at the surface but eventually we will see this switch to more southerly flow with temperatures climbing back toward the low to mid 60s in most locations. This is slated to be the driest day of the period, with afternoon RH values dropping into the 25 percent or less range for many locations. This high pressure pushes off to the east by by Wednesday and we will be left in between systems. The ensembles are showing weak signal for perhaps some warm advection showers or a weak disturbance. Either way NBM is adding in around 20 percent PoP for Wednesday, but given the deterministic and ensemble forecast soundings are showing drier air at the surface could see this day trending drier with time.

The next more substantial storm system arrives to end the week. The issue that remains is the divergence seen in the deterministic and ensemble synoptic patterns. There are two camps seen right now one would sweep the cold front across the area and well southward into the Southeast US and other has this boundary linger near the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend. The NBM is seeing this divergence in patterns, as it is capping most of the PoPs in the chance range through the end of the period, with greatest chances of rainfall on Thursday night. There is some signal for some strong storms by Thursday and Friday with this system in the Ohio Valley based on ML and AI data, so this trend will need to be watched. Right now best alignment for instability and shear are to the northwest of eastern Kentucky. Overall the rainfall amounts will depend on how quickly this boundary moves through the Ohio Valley, with the more stalled out solution leading to more rainfall. This will again need to be monitored as we get closer to this forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast. Some brief reductions in ceilings and/or visibility could occur with any stray showers or storm that manages to develop in parts of the Cumberland Valley during the first 5 hours or so of the period. A PROB30 for KLOZ for a shower on station was used between 03Z and 0. Winds will average light and variable through 12Z, but then as the nocturnal inversion mixes out through 16Z, sustained winds should increase to 5 to 12KT, with gusts to around 15 to 20KT. Winds during peaking heating may reach roughly the 8 to 15K range with gusts in the 15 to 25KT range. Reductions from showers or storms near or in advance of a cold front may bring sub VFR conditions as early as the 3 to 6 hours following this TAF cycle.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.