textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Fast-moving clipper systems will move through tonight and late Wednesday, with flurries and patches of light snow possible. Some localized minor accumulations could occur. - Bitter cold weather lasts through the upcoming weekend, with at least a brief warming trend then possible early next week.

- There is a potential for a more widespread light snow event Friday/Saturday for parts of eastern Kentucky depending on the evolution of a possible large system developing/moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

UPDATE

Issued at 645 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows a large area of low pressure to the east of Kentucky continuing to lock in cyclonic flow over the JKL CWA. This is supporting a band of very light snow and flurries slipping through the area this evening and early overnight, but little in the way of accumulations are expected. Currently, temperatures are running in the low 20s northwest to the upper 20s in the southeast. Meanwhile, amid southwest to west winds of 10 to 15 mph, dewpoints are generally in the mid teens north and the low 20s south. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune the low PoPs and snow chances through the night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 357 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

The long-term forecast period opens Thursday morning with a deep ~510 dam upper level low over the Ottawa River Valley, while broad overall troughing prevails east of the Rockies. A shortwave disturbance is noted within the parent trough, crossing over the Central Plains with a weak surface reflection near/over Oklahoma. Ahead of that system, a ridge of high pressure extends southeast from Minnesota to over Kentucky.

Model agreement is good on Thursday, but uncertainty still increases later in the week as the aforementioned deep upper level low elongates west-to-east and then pivots counterclockwise/digs deeply across the Eastern CONUS heading into the upcoming weekend, likely closing off into a 500 hPa low over the Southeast US. There is increasing agreement that a period of isentropic upglide ahead of the 500 hPa trough axis should lead to a period of light, fluffy snow across eastern Kentucky on Friday, especially south of I-64. Accumulations on the order of a few tenths to perhaps an inch or more closer to the VA-KY border will be possible. Meanwhile, the shortwave trough will support the weak low pressure dropping to along the Gulf Coast and then up the coast, where both upper level features may favorably interact over the weekend to form a Miller A Noreaster. Confidence in many of the details/impacts is low, as there is still significant run- to-run and model-to-model variation with respect to how quickly the upper level trough closes off, how far south it tracks, as well as when it phases with the southern stream energy. Thus, significant disparities exist as to whether impactful snowfall occurs mainly east of the Appalachians (favored by most guidance at this point) or if the Central/Southern Appalachians pick up on notable accumulations as well (possibly including southeastern Kentucky). Those details should become clearer as the ingredients of this system become better sampled over the next 48 to 72 hours.

Of high confidence is the subsequent bitterly cold air mass that will sink southward with the 500 hPa trough/low -- 925 hPa temperatures sink to near -20C over eastern Kentucky early Saturday. Any shallow moisture is likely to support at least a few upslope flurries at times outside of any more organized snowfall associated with the Noreaster riding up the coast. A moderating temperature trend then follows Sunday and Monday as heights recover slightly. Another shortwave trough passing through the synoptic-scale troughing could support additional light wintry precipitation later Monday/Tuesday.

In sensible weather terms, look for well below normal temperatures throughout the period. High temperatures range in the mid 20s north to mid 30s south on Thursday, retreating back to the upper teens to low 30s on Friday when a chance of light accumulating snow briefly returns for most locales. The coldest temperatures of the long-term period follow Friday night and persist on Saturday/Saturday night, with lows in the single digits on either side of 0F while high temperatures only reach the 10s. There is a low chance for additional flurries or maybe even some light snow both weekend days, primarily near the VA-KY border, but the details are obscure. Temperatures recover Sunday onward with highs back in the 30s for most locations by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026

MVFR conditions were found through the aviation forecast area at 00Z. This will be holding steady or degrading a bit as a weak wave moves in from the northwest. These conditions will persist through much of the evening and early overnight before beginning to improve from northwest to southeast after 06Z, when CIGs should gradually work back to VFR. Occasional flurries or light snow showers will also be possible and cause brief visibility reductions during this time, but confidence is too low to include in any TAFs except for PROB30 groups through 04Z.

Southwest winds ahead of the front are still brisk and gusty, with current winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts at most locations. These winds will slowly diminish through 03Z while becoming more westerly and then west-northwest with the frontal passage. Light winds follow for most locations later tonight before increasing again out of the west at 5 to 10 kts towards midday Wednesday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Wednesday for KYZ044-050>052.