textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler air arrives Sunday and Monday behind a couple of cold fronts. Patchy frost is possible in northern sheltered valleys, primarily on Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns exist Monday through at least Wednesday due to dry conditions.

- Well above-normal temperatures return late next week, along with the next chance for area-wide rainfall by Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1135 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and a tweaking of the PoPs and thunder chances through the next few hours. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 830 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

00Z sfc analysis shows a cold front pressing through eastern Kentucky. This is maintaining a chance for thunder in the far east as colder temperatures start to surge in on northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts right behind the boundary. Currently, temperatures range from the lower 50s in the northwest to the mid 60s in the far east ahead of the front. Meanwhile, dewpoints vary from the upper 40s northwest to the lower 60s in the southeast. Have updated the forecast mainly to adjust the PoPs per the frontal movement and latest CAMs guidance with the anticipation of the pcpn becoming more light rain and drizzle towards midnight - post frontal. Did also add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 409 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

With the upper level trough departing our area, the long term period opens with much cooler weather; temperatures are expected to be well below average on Monday. Notably, a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out on Monday morning, associated with a secondary cold that should push south of the area by the afternoon. The main weather impact on Monday night will be frost or light freeze concerns. With dew points plummeting behind the cold front, clear skies and light winds due to high pressure to our north should support sufficient cooling for frost formation in valleys.

Tuesday will bring warm and dry weather as upper level ridging builds. Unfortunately, this will also lead to a return of elevated fire danger. High temperatures will climb closer to average for this time of year (70s) while dewpoints remain relatively low. Breezy winds (15-25 mph gusts) will also support these concerns as the pressure gradient tightens. While southwesterly winds will make a weak attempt at moisture recovery over the furthest west portion of the forecast area, it remains unclear how far east this moisture will push. Consequently, RH values are favored to approach critical thresholds across eastern Kentucky on Tuesday.

From Wednesday onward, moisture will gradually increase with southwesterly to westerly flow, eventually alleviating fire weather concerns by the end of the week. A cold front moving across the Ohio Valley will bring a slight chance of precipitation to the northern portion of our area on Wednesday. However, as this front drifts further south it will become less defined, with limited upper level support. As a result, PoPs remain low for the vast majority of the area, with no significant rainfall expected. Following the disintegration of this weak boundary, upper level ridging and warm temperatures will dominate until the next shortwave trough approaches later on Friday. A cold front associated with this upper level feature will move through the area Saturday, bringing a chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Per the LREF, the chance for at least a quarter- inch of rain from this system is medium (40-60% chance), indicating that Saturday could be our next chance for truly appreciable precipitation.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026

Light showers were occurring across the forecast area at the start of the period. Conditions were mostly MVFR near the TN border and over extreme eastern KY, and VFR elsewhere in the forecast area. The precipitation will exit to the southeast and conditions will improve to VFR area wide as ceilings break up overnight and early Sunday morning. VFR conditions then persist through the rest of the period. However, ceilings in the 5-10K ft AGL range are forecast to be entering from the north, along with a slight chance of showers, near the end of the forecast period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.