textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Localized heavy rainfall may occur with showers & thunderstorms today.

- Wet weather will last through most of the upcoming week, but some drying may occur by next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1022 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

Have incorporated trends from the latest model runs into today's forecast, with the greatest emphasis for precip being this afternoon in our northern and western counties.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to add in a touch of terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning where some very limited and temporary drying is expected. Also, the rain making pattern this week continues to keep a rain axis overhead or nearby. However, there is indications that we may at least briefly get to dry out over the next weekend.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The forecast period starts with a surface low moving eastward out of the Ohio Valley. This surface low is progged to drag a cold front through the area first thing Monday morning. This will provide showers and storms early in the day, followed by a lull in activity for the afternoon. However, by late afternoon, a surface wave moving through the Deep South is forecast to eject north and lift a warm front through the CWA. Showers and storms are expected to increase in coverage Monday afternoon and persist through the overnight hours before the front stalls as a stationary boundary, oriented west to east across the Commonwealth for Tuesday.

This wavering boundary is forecast to stall Tuesday and remain the focus for shower and thunderstorm development throughout most of next week. Forecast PWs, driven by stout moisture advection, alongside skinny CAPE soundings, continue to hint at efficient rainfall production along this boundary. This supports a forecast total QPF ranging from over 1.25 inches in the Bluegrass/I-64 corridor to up to 2.00 inches farther south toward the Tennessee border. These numbers will certainly fluctuate depending on convective activity and where mesoscale bands or heavier rainfall set up. However, long-term guidance does hint at a breakdown of this wet and stormy pattern late in the week as the stationary front drops south as a cold front, bringing an end to the precipitation. Lastly, temperatures are forecast to remain rather seasonal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Once the front sags south, temperatures will cool a few degrees, with lows dropping into the 50s.

In summary, an active and unsettled weather pattern will dominate the region into next week as a stationary boundary stalls across the Commonwealth. Seasonal temperatures will remain overhead, but persistent rainfall, which will be heavy at times, could bring an increasing threat for river and flash flooding.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

Conditions were primarily VFR at TAF issuance outside any ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of the convective activity should generally increase through the day, with renewed flight category reductions. However, forecast confidence on details and timing is less than ideal at this time. Winds will be light and variable, outside of any thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.