textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures will persist, for the most part, through the next week. - The greatest probabilities of precipitation (mainly rain) over the next week are tonight into Thursday and from Sunday night into Tuesday night.

UPDATE

Issued at 720 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

Light rain is developing across the Lake Cumberland region this evening as upper level divergence increases in the favorable right entrance region of a 300 hPa jet streak. Expect rain to develop across most locations south of the Mountain Parkway through the remainder of the evening. Hourly forecast has been updated to include the latest hi-res model trends for the next 24 hours.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

The period begins with surface high pressure building into the region in the wake of Thursdays cold front. As this high settles over the area for Friday, dry conditions and a warming trend will develop and persist through the weekend. Temperatures are progged to peak on Saturday, with highs ranging from the low to upper 60s. However, upper-level divergence ahead of an approaching entrance region of a jet streak will support surface cyclogenesis in the Mid- Mississippi Valley by Saturday afternoon. This low will track eastward, sustained by favorable jet dynamics. By Saturday night, PoP will increase to 15 to 20 percent for the overnight period, primarily for areas along and north of a line from Jackson to Pike Counties. The highest PoP chances will remain in Ohio and Indiana, in closer proximity to the stronger forcing. By Sunday afternoon, this initial wave is expected to shift eastward, leading to a brief decrease in PoP.

This lull in activity will be short-lived. The primary upper-level trough will promote the development of a second wave over western Kansas, which is progged to track rapidly toward the Commonwealth. Increasing PoP chances are forecast beginning Sunday evening and continuing through the remainder of the period. Consistent with previous forecast packages, model guidance continues to show a north- south wobble with this system; these latitudinal shifts remain critical in determining the position of the rain-snow line. The forecast area stays positioned near the critical thermal threshold where precipitation type is highly sensitive. Consequently, a wintry mix appears likely with the arrival of this system Sunday night. Deterministic forecast soundings for areas north of the Mountain Parkway, where the best chances for a wintry mix exist, show a pronounced warm nose. This should result in melting and predominant rainfall at the onset. However, as surface temperatures fall to freezing or below during the early overnight hours, a transition to a rain-snow mix is anticipated. By Monday morning, temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing, transitioning all wintry precipitation back to rain. Rainfall is expected to continue through the end of the period, though model confidence degrades substantially after 00Z Tuesday as deterministic solutions begin to diverge. While the GFS dries the region out behind the departing system on Tuesday, the ECMWF maintains PoP chances through the end of the period. Given this uncertainty, the NBM remains the preferred solution, keeping PoP in the forecast through the end of the period.

The period will be highlighted by an initial surface high bringing dry and mild conditions through Saturday. A transition to a more active pattern occurs Saturday night as a series of disturbances impact the region. While temperatures start above average, fluctuations in synoptic and mesoscale flow will lead to high variability through the early part of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 720 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026

VFR conditions with lowering ceilings and even areas of light rain over the Cumberland River Basin were noted at the start of the TAF period. Ceilings will continue to lower overnight most substantially near/south of the Mountain Parkway overnight as rain develops and brings eventual MVFR or IFR conditions. Any rainfall should be more spotty north of the Mountain Parkway with mainly VFR conditions through 12Z Thursday. A few hours of MVFR will then be possible on Thursday morning even in the north before gradual improvements in ceilings area-wide during the afternoon.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.