textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather is expected through mid week, along with a distinct warming trend. Heat indices will likely top 100 degrees in many locations Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible, at times, from Thursday into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 213 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026

With development further north, have expanded a slight chance of thunderstorms over the remainder of the forecast area for this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 1248 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026

Isolated showers have developed in south central KY. NAM soundings show a time window for deep convection today. By this evening, they show warming mid level temps and slight surface drying due to mixing, which in combination would cap the atmosphere. Based on radar, expected dew points and mid level temps, have added a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms in south central and southeast KY this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 1008 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026

A couple of minor updates have been done this morning to blend observations into the forecast, with little effect on the overall forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026

The most current model data continues to endorse the current forecast for a dry and steadily warming period into mid-week with low to mid 90s on tap for highs at its peak as we get a bit hotter each day. We still see the potential for convection in a good number of the model solutions across forecast area on Thursday and Friday - mainly in the afternoon and evening hours owing to the 5h ridge weakening enough to allow northwest flow to get close enough that any "ridge riders" can affect our area. Heat headlines still may be needed for at least the western parts of the area at midweek - still dependent on how effectively higher dewpoints can move east into this part of the state.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Ridging remains the dominant synoptic weather feature at the start of the long term forecast period, with the latest guidance collectively resolving a 595 decameter ridge directly above the commonwealth from Monday to Wednesday. Midlevel heights of this magnitude rank above the 99th percentile of model climatology in the blended LREF ensemble, and given that such values are the model consensus, confidence is high that the Commonwealth of Kentucky will experience hot and dry sensible weather conditions this week. The ridging should eventually begin to break down by the end of the period, but this is marked with a potential transition to more active northwesterly flow. Ridge-riding disturbances allow chances for showers and storms to reenter the forecast for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, but confidence in the forecast for wet weather at the end of the period is lower than it is for hot weather at the beginning.

Eastern Kentucky is positioned directly to the east of the mid/upper level ridge axis. The related increase in subsidence aloft will favor efficient diurnal processes for as long as the pattern persists. Expect mostly sunny skies and increasing temperatures accordingly, with ridge-valley temperature splits and river valley fog emerging at night. Modeled 850mb temperatures climb above the 20 degree Celsius mark on Monday, remain elevated on Tuesday, and then peak closer to 23 degrees Celsius on Wednesday. At the surface, this should translate to widespread highs in the lower half of the 90s on Monday and Tuesday before some locations flirt with the upper 90s on Wednesday. The warmest temperatures will likely occur in the northern half of the forecast area (where heights and 850mb temps are the greatest) and in the deepest river valleys (where diurnal mixing will be deepest). Blended NBM temperatures are likely too warm, and dewpoints likely too moist. As drier air mixes down from the midlevels, dewpoints will likely remain below the 70 degree line. Heat indices may remain below the 105 degree heat headline criteria mark, but it will still feel very hot outside. There won't be much relief at night either, with ridge-valley splits above/below the 70 degree mark. Interests with outdoor plans (such as high school sports, recreational hikes, or camping) are encouraged to review heat safety information at weather.gov/safety/heat in the coming days. Take frequent breaks in the shade or indoors, stay hydrated, and continue to monitor for forecast updates.

The northeastern periphery of the ridge begins to flatten on Thursday, which will allow a NW flow regime to set up over the Ohio River Valley. A series of shortwave impulses will then propagate around the ridge and towards the forecast area headed into next weekend, bringing about the next remarkable chances for showers and storms. While 850mb temperatures will trend towards the 20C mark and midlevel heights are progged to drop back down towards 590dm by then, these disturbances will still be interacting with a seasonably warm airmass. Models disagree on the amount of moisture available during this pattern shift emerges, but if enough modified tropical moisture makes it around the ridge and into the column, this late period activity will need to be monitored closely. The available machine learning, analog-based, and AI-enhanced long-range convective guidance is hinting at more active weather in the Greater Appalachians by the end of the period, but it is too early to pinpoint specific timing and hazard details. With that being said, the clouds and rain-cooled air associated with any convective activity would likely mitigate the Major HeatRisk analyzed at the beginning of the forecast period. Expect thermometer readings closer to climatological norms for the holiday weekend, but monitor for updates to the convective forecast while planning any outdoor activities for Friday and beyond.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026

Isolated showers were ongoing across the area at the start of the period, possibly bringing very localized sub-VFR conditions. Otherwise, conditions were VFR. Can't rule out a few of the showers growing into brief thunderstorms. Precip is expected to die out by evening, leaving VFR conditions to carry into the night. Overnight and early Monday, valley fog will once again bring isolated IFR or worse conditions, with VFR returning area wide by mid day on Monday. Fog is currently not forecast to affect TAF sites.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.