textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A major winter storm brings significant, impactful snow and ice accumulations this weekend.

- Bitter cold weather returns tonight and lasts through next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 735 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 507 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

The forecast period begins with a surface low tracking parallel to the Gulf Coast, with its associated precipitation shield expanding northward into the Great Lakes. This synoptic setup places eastern Kentucky within a complex winter weather regime. At the onset, precipitation will begin as snow; however, through the evening and overnight hours, the warm conveyor belt will introduce a pronounced elevated warm layer. This will lead to a transition toward a wintry mix. In far southeastern Kentucky, the column may warm sufficiently to transition snow to all rain. Moving northwest, where the warm nose is most impactful, a combination of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow is expected. Further northwest, a more muted warm nose will favor a sleet and snow mix. Areas along and southeast of a line from Pulaski to Pike County, where rain, freezing rain, and sleet are the predominant precipitation types, will see snowfall totals of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of 0.2 to 0.4 inches. Areas northwest of this line will see heavier snow and sleet, with accumulations of 7 to 14 inches and ice totals between 0 and 0.2 inches. The highest snowfall totals, near 14 inches, are forecast along the I-64 corridor and the Bluegrass. These totals remain sensitive to the storm track; any latitudinal deviation or changes in thermal profiles will significantly impact accumulations. As the system ejects northeast along the Appalachians, mixed precipitation probabilities will continue through early Sunday morning. As the low moves east, CAA will transition all precipitation back to snow, leading to additional accumulations through Monday morning.

Behind the departing low, an Arctic high will settle over the region. Strong CAA will usher in the coldest temperatures of the season, with Monday highs struggling to reach the upper teens or mid- 20s. Overnight lows Monday night are expected to drop into the single digits or below zero, enhanced by optimal radiational cooling over a fresh snowpack. A shift to quasi-zonal flow will allow a gradual moderating trend into the 20s and 30s later in the week. A weak clipper system is forecast to move through the Great Lakes mid- week, bringing a renewed threat of light snowfall through early Thursday afternoon. LREF ensemble probabilities suggest a dusting to one inch is possible with this clipper. Cold high pressure returns Thursday, ushering in another round of cold temperatures with daytime highs in the 20s and overnight lows ranging from the negatives to single digits.

A significant storm system originating from the Southern Plains will bring widespread snowfall and a wintry mix to the region through the weekend. Following the storm, an Arctic air mass will result in the coldest temperatures of the season, exacerbated by clear skies and snow cover. A passing clipper is forecast to bring additional light accumulations followed by more cold temperatures.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 710 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026

A dry cold front is dropping through the area this morning, but should have little impact other than a wind shift to the north (though still at or below 10 kts sustained) and some mid level or high clouds. VFR conditions persist through the TAF period - though a cloud deck starts moving in from the west late as a major winter storm approaches. Winds will continue to shift around to the northeast later this evening and overnight at less than 10 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104- 106>120.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Monday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.