textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures climb through Thursday, while humidity gradually increases heading into the weekend.

- A slow moving front will likely bring showers and stray thunderstorms to the area from Friday afternoon into the weekend until a secondary boundary passes through ahead of the new work week.

- Dry conditions and below normal temperatures through the first half of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 919 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026

Given the persistent pattern and observations from last night, expanded patchy fog coverage in the favored river valley locations. On that basis, greater ridge valley splits are also favored overnight in deep sheltered valleys and narrow hollows. As such, have opted to decrease minimum temperatures in those areas. Low temperatures will range from low 50s for northeastern hollows to low 60s for thermal belt ridges and much of the Bluegrass / Lake Cumberland areas.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 453 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026

The models are in good agreement with more of a split-flow long wave pattern in place across the CONUS at the end of the work week. A progressive short wave trough will start out over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Friday within the northern stream. Meanwhile, a positively tilted southern stream short wave trough will be positioned from the middle Mississippi Valley down through northern Mexico. Ridging will be centered off of the southeastern U.S. coast, while another high is sprawled from portions of the Four Corners region to just offshore of the Southern California coast. Through the weekend, the southern stream positively tilted trough will gradually shift east with time. This feature will then eventually be absorbed into amplifying northern stream energy by early Monday. The northern stream will then hold sway generally east of the Rockies through the middle of next week, with ridging remaining anchored across the West. All of this will result in unsettled weather across eastern Kentucky into the weekend, with cooler and drier weather to follow for the first half of next week.

Rain chances will be on the increase from northwest to southeast across eastern Kentucky on Friday, as well above normal PWATs (95th percentile) surge in ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Fortunately, two things are working against the threat of excessive runoff across the area. The first is antecedent dry conditions heading into this event, with most waterways running fairly low. The other will be the instability, as both LREF and NBM probabilities for greater amounts (>500 J/kg) of SB CAPE and MU CAPE have generally been trending down across our area. As such, without better thunder potential, the majority of the higher PWAT air will likely remain untapped. This is also seen in the raw QPF numbers, with probabilities for seeing greater than 1 inch of rainfall in 24 hours ending 8 am Saturday across the area remaining pretty meager from the NBM (10% southeast and 30-40% northwest).

As the cold front exits our area Friday evening, widespread shower activity will gradually diminish from northwest to southeast. For Saturday, the better moisture gradient has shifted a bit further into Tennessee this go around, with a larger PoP gradient noted in the blended guidance from northwest to southeast. Mostly cloudy skies will still be in place, with lingering low level northeasterly flow in the wake of the cold front. A secondary surge of moisture will move in for Saturday night and Sunday, with higher PoPs favored across our terrain counties. While a stray thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out, this is also looking less and less likely, given the weaker instability.

Cooler progressive surface high pressure will follow Sunday night, moving in from the Plains. This high will shift east with time, settling across the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, before positioning over New England by Wednesday. This will result in dry weather across eastern Kentucky after Sunday. Cooler northeasterly flow will remain in place through Tuesday, with below normal temperatures expected. Highs will average in the 60s and 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s. Some modest return flow ensues by Wednesday, with temperatures returning closer to normal values.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2026

High pressure remains in the vicinity of Eastern Kentucky through the period, leading to VFR conditions at all TAF sites and mostly clear skies. Winds generally remain light out of the south to southwest through tonight; however, tomorrow morning will become breezy as a 20-25 kt LLJ mixes down with diurnal heating. TAF sites may see gusts out of the southwest as high as 15-20 kt from 14-18Z Thursday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.