textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend.

- Through Sunday, some of the storms could arrive as organized clusters with a possibility for strong to damaging wind gusts. - Excessive rainfall may occur where storms are most persistent, leading to flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for the northeast portion of the forecast area through 11 PM EDT Friday evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 1145 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026

15Z Mesoanalysis has MLCAPE generally in the 500 J/kg north to 1500 J/kg southeast and south. Inhibition remains in the north other than the VA and TN border counties. Some cumulus is present in these areas, with mainly some passing mid and high clouds in the north. By 19Z, inhibition should be gone areawide with roughly 1000 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear will be more on the lower end, 15 to 25KT. Mid level lapse rates are not that substantial ranging from 5.5C/km south to near 6.5C/km at present, with around 6C/km for most around 19Z. Low level lapse rates should rise to 6.5 to 7+C/km range toward 19Z. At the moment, PW is at a min, though if any training cells were to materialize, heavy rain could be a threat.

At this point, have slight chance pops south over the next couple of hours and then gradually expand it into the north and east and eventually areawide slight chance to chance pops by 19Z. CAMS lead to some uncertainty as to how much coverage of convection there may be this afternoon and evening though parameters become favorable over the next few hours. The FV3 is the most aggressive with a more organize complex this evening, but the remainder of the recent CAMs have convection generally diminishing by sunset. Pops have been adjusted based on the trends in the parameters.

If convection does hold off, some valley locations and areas near and west of I-75 may have peak heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree range.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 700 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026

The previous long term discussion for Sunday onward follows:

Sunday should bring drier weather, although things won't stay dry for long. Additional ridging building aloft will make Sunday the hottest day of the week, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the forecast area. Given continued humidity, more widespread triple digit apparent temperatures may be possible Sunday afternoon; current LREF output suggests over a 30 percent chance of exceeding a 100 degree apparent temperature for the northern portions of our forecast area by only 2 PM on Sunday. Thankfully, this heat will be short lived. Additional upper level troughing will be digging into the Great Lakes region by Sunday afternoon, and a shortwave rotating through the base of this trough should work to flatten the upper level ridge somewhat by Sunday night. Meanwhile, a surface low will be located near Michigan, with a cold front extending to the southwest. As the system translates eastward, this front will approach Kentucky by early Monday morning, bringing the next round of rain. As in previous days, moisture will be quite high (with westerly flow supporting PW values generally in the range of 1.8-1.9 inches, approximately the 90th percentile), and at least isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible. Thus, WPC has placed the northern and eastern portions of the forecast area in a Marginal (Level 1/4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Monday. The magnitude of the flash flood risk will remain fairly dependent on how saturated soils are going into the event, in addition to the timing of this frontal passage (which itself will modulate how widespread any convection is); therefore, uncertainty remains high. Regardless, rain appears likely on Monday.

Following the frontal passage, temperatures will be much more tolerable. With less influence from the upper level ridge, MaxTs will generally range from the mid to upper 80s across the forecast area, with the hottest temperatures expected to the southwest. Moisture will be noticeably lower too, with dewpoints generally falling into the upper 60s across the forecast area. That being said, the general pattern will still be fairly active. Upper level troughing over the Great Lakes will persist, while ridging will dominate across the southern CONUS, with models generally depicting the ridge axis in the Four Corners region or slightly farther east in western Texas. This will place eastern Kentucky in a region of either quasi zonal or northwest flow aloft, depending on which model you believe; either way, this will open the door for additional rain chances through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026

Mainly VFR was observed at issuance time, with localized MVFR or lower within a narrow line of storms associated with a southward moving outflow boundary and was located near or just south of the I-64 corridor. Otherwise, as we move through the afternoon to early evening during peak heating, some increase in coverage of convection is anticipated as the outflow boundary gradually drops across the area. Any convection would bring brief reductions to MVFR or worse and PROB30s have been added in some areas when coverage is expected to be the greatest. Between 04Z and 14Z, a general lull in convection is anticipated, though isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop before the end of the period. Winds will generally be 10KT or less, except locally stronger and erratic near thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-104-106>113-115-118>120.