textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The approach of a strong cold front Sunday night will bring a possibility of severe thunderstorms, followed by a potential of snow with light accumulations behind the front Monday afternoon and evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026

Forecast is largely on track this afternoon as temperatures climb through the 60s south of the Mountain Parkway and toward 60F further north. Low dew points are leading to arid relative humidity levels -- 15 to 35 percent at present across most of the area.

UPDATE Issued at 1051 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026

Temperatures are warming rapidly under partly to mostly sunny skies and were running above the hourly forecast. With dry air in place and ongoing strong sensible heating, the afternoon maximum temperature forecast was raised to the upper 50s to near 60F north of I-64 and to around 70F in the vicinity of Lake Cumberland. The mild temperatures combined with light winds will yield a delightful early spring afternoon across the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields and adjacent regions.

UPDATE Issued at 747 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026

Updated the forecast with the latest observational data from around the are. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast. Dew points were slightly lower than the current forecast. Decided to go with the 5th percentile of the NBM through 12Z Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 238 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026

The forecast period begins with the Commonwealth in the midst of a cold frontal passage. This strong front is associated with a surface low currently tracking across the CONUS. As the upper-level trough and its vertically stacked closed low move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley toward the western Great Lakes on a north-northeasterly trajectory, the cold front will be on the doorstep of the CWA. Widespread showers are anticipated with FROPA. However, as colder air wraps around the western periphery of the system, temperatures are forecast to fall rapidly below freezing. This will lead to a quick transition from rain to a rain-snow mix, and eventually to all snow by late Monday morning. In addition to the transition to wintry precipitation, a tight pressure gradient will support windy conditions on Monday. Blustery winds will result in wind chills approximately 10 to 15 degrees lower than actual air temperatures. Highs for Monday will occur ahead of the front, with temperatures dropping precipitously following its passage. Sustained winds are forecast at 20 to 25 mph, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph along and behind the boundary. LREF probabilities support these higher winds, indicating a 70 to 90% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph. Probabilities for gusts exceeding 40 mph decrease to 10 to 40% for most of the area, though a 50% chance exists across the far northern CWA in closer proximity to the surface low center. Coupled with plummeting temperatures and strong winds, the potential for snow squalls increases rapidly along and behind the front Monday afternoon. These squalls may occur from late morning through the evening, potentially impacting the Monday evening commute. Given these impacts, an SPS or Winter Weather Advisory may be issued to highlight the threat. Light accumulations are possible where the heaviest squalls materialize, as well as within the upslope regions of the high terrain along the VA border.

Behind the departing front, surface high pressure will build into the region, allowing snow showers to taper off Monday night into Tuesday. Tuesday will remain breezy as the upper-level trough pivots through and the area stays within a tight pressure gradient; however, winds will slacken as the low lifts away. Northwesterly flow will continue to advect colder air into the region, with highs struggling to reach the low to mid-30s. Overnight lows are progged to fall into the upper-teens to lower-20s, though cloud cover should limit the potential for a ridge-valley temperature split.

By Tuesday night, flow will shift to the west-southwest as a clipper system dives out of the northern Rockies, increasing PoPs for Wednesday. As the clipper moves through, an initial rain-snow mix is possible before warming temperatures cause a transition to rain. With the current track aligned more toward the Ohio Valley, precipitation chances remain at 20% or less, with the highest probabilities across the northern CWA. Surface high pressure builds back into the region behind the clipper, bringing warming temperatures for the remainder of the period.

The period is highlighted by a strong cold front bringing rain, followed by a quick transition to snow by mid-morning Monday. Snow squalls and light accumulations are possible before cold high pressure arrives Tuesday. A passing clipper brings renewed rain chances Wednesday before high pressure returns with warming temperatures for the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026

VFR conditions generally prevail through the TAF period outside of smoke from ongoing prescribed/wildland fire in the Daniel Boone National Forest. Eventual visibility obstructions due to smoke are possible at or in the vicinity of the SME airfield and amendments may be needed later this afternoon. Otherwise winds will be light and easterly this afternoon, then generally veering to a southerly direction tonight. Some mid to high level cloud cover will pass through the area, with little to no impact. Additionally, LLWS out of the south is expected at all terminals late tonight and early Sunday as a low-level jet develops ahead of an approaching cold front.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-050-051- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.