textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures will last into the weekend, with milder readings then returning early next week.

- A soaking rainfall will occur for the second half of this weekend.

- Well above normal temperatures expected during the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1126 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026

Continued to freshen hourly temperatures given significant ridge- valley splits for much of the evening. A few locations were already at forecast MinTs for the night, so lowered a few of the coldest locations another degree or two. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with no other significant changes needed.

UPDATE Issued at 722 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026

Freshened the hourly temperature forecast through much of tonight as several sheltered valley mesonet locations are already much colder than forecast. No other changes are needed to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 518 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026

The forecast is on track. Updated to add minimal Sky cover for the next few hours towards northeastern Kentucky based on current satellite observations. Also freshened up hourly temperature grids.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 348 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026

The period is expected to begin with a 500 mb trough extending from near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers south to the Lower MS Valley with an upper level low expected to be over the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Further west, an upper level ridge should extend north from Mexico into portions of the Rockies and High Plains as the period begins while further west, an upper low and trough are expected to be initially in place west of the west coast of the Conus. At the surface, a sfc low is expected to be over the Lower MS Valley as the period begins. Moisture transport into eastern KY will already have begun with mean PW per the 12Z LREF on the order of 0.80 to 1.1 inches or the 90th to 95th percentiles for this time of year around dawn on Sunday.

The upper level trough and upper low moving across the Gulf states will move east across the OH and TN Valleys as well as the Appalachians and southeast from Sunday to Sunday night. Meanwhile, the sfc low will track to the south of eastern KY. A period of good forcing is anticipated to combine with the deeper moisture for a widespread rainfall that arrives around or bit before dawn, but picks up a bit in coverage and intensity on Sunday morning and then gradually begins to taper off during Sunday afternoon. Low level flow, such as at 925 mb and at the surface, will have a downslope southeast component near dawn on Sunday, particularly for the southeastern counties before these winds become more easterly and this affect lessens. This will initially limit QPF in these southeastern counties downwind of Pine and Black mountains near the VA border. Overall, though widespread to soaking rainfall is expected with the current forecast having trended down a bit ranging from 0.4 in the north to about 1.4 inches near the TN border. 12Z LREF probabilties for 1 inch of event total rainfall ranges from 10% or less near the I-64 corridor to 50 to 60% near the Lake Cumberland vicinity. Chances for 2 inches or more of rain remain very low at generally 5% or less across the entire region. At this time, rainfall on Sunday is still not expected to be sufficient to cause significant hydro concerns.

Once the axis of the trough moves east of eastern KY on Sunday evening and the sfc low nears the southeast coast, sfc and upper level ridging builds from the central Conus into the eastern Conus and across eastern KY for later Sunday night into Monday night. Meanwhile, the upper level trough is expected to move into the western Conus to begin the new week. Downstream, the upper level ridging generally flattens/becomes centered from Mexico across the Gulf and into parts of the Southeast at midweek. There is uncertainty with timing and evolution of shortwaves ejecting from the western Conus upper trough and into the Central Conus. However, the overall patter will result in WSW to SW flow aloft from the Southwest Conus and across the Central Conus and then into eastern Conus, including the Lower OH Valley.

Shortwaves in this flow may cross eastern KY as early as midweek. At the surface, an initial sfc low should develop in the Plains/Central Conus to the Lee of the Rockies Monday night into Tuesday as the first in a series of shortwaves moves across the Central Conus. With uncertainty in shortwave timing/evolution there is uncertainty in location of the sfc low development and with the positioning of the baroclinic zone/warm front to the east toward the Lower OH Valley region at midweek. The overall consensus of guidance is for eastern KY to get into the warm sector at midweek as this first sfc low moves east, tracking northeast from the Plains and likely north and northwest of the Commonwealth/eastern KY Tuesday night to Wednesday. There will be small chances for rain mainly in the north and east as that system passes.

Guidance and ensemble means points toward the next shortwave trough emerging into the Central Conus on Thursday, with that shortwave also generally tracking northwest of the Commonwealth and toward or into the Great Lakes for Thursday night into Friday. Yet another sfc low should develop in the Central Conus/Plains late Wednesday night and Thursday with the probable track of that sfc low also north of the Commonwealth/eastern KY. Shower chances increase with the potential arrival of this sfc low and its associated shortwave trough. At this time, rainfall from the mid to late week systems is expected to be light, with better forcing passing north and PW across eastern KY expected to be no higher than around 0.75 inches or the 80th to 85th percentile per the 00Z LREF and likely short residence time of any showers.

After a bit cooler temperatures for Sunday, though still near average temperatures for this time of year, temperatures warm to above normal from Monday onward. Highs of around 10 or more degrees above normal are anticipated for Monday, with well above normal highs for Tuesday to Thursday.

Departing sfc high pressure should set the stage for a ridge valley split on Monday night, especially in the deeper eastern and southeastern valleys. Coop MOS guidance had some mid 30s for valleys and opted to deviate from NBM deterministic min T for eastern valley lows Monday night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday) ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026

VFR conditions are likely exist to through the TAF period, with high clouds arriving between 12z and 18z from the west, followed by gradually lowering cigs through the remainder of the TAF period. PROB30 groups were added at most TAF sites to account for the low chance of -RA and lower cigs/viz arriving from the west before 06z Sunday, but any reductions to MVFR or lower flight conditions are more likely after the 06z TAF period. Generally light and variable winds are anticipated through Saturday morning, with south to southwest winds of 5 kts or less Saturday afternoon gradually backing to a southeasterly or easterly direction Saturday night.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.