textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A distinct cold front brings widespread showers and the possibility of a few thunderstorms today.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front - lingering over the weekend, bringing the expectation of widespread sub- freezing temperatures by Saturday morning and for the valleys that night.

- Significant warming then takes place next week, with the potential for several consecutive days near or above 80 degrees for highs.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with a tweaking of the near term PoPs per radar. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 613 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

The long wave pattern features mainly zonal flow across the CONUS into early next week, before amplifying through Thursday. The center of a ridge will shift towards the southeastern CONUS, while short wave energy will be inbound across the Pacific Northwest. By the middle of next week, a deeper trough will be rotating in across the West Coast, with additional lead short wave energy ejecting out ahead of its approach. Model agreement breaks down more so with the details on the timing and evolution this far out in the extended portion of the forecast, so confidence remains on the lower side.

Surface high pressure will settle across the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night, with low level flow veering from the east to the south. Valleys will decouple under mostly clear skies, and given the cool and dry start, most of the valley locations will likely see sub-freezing temperatures once again with frost formation as decoupling ensues. Ridges will likely stay up above freezing, generally mid to upper 30s. Temperatures will rebound into the 60s on Sunday, with a few places possibly reaching 70, low level flow continues to veer to the southwest, with moisture on the increase into next week. Some isentropic upglide will mainly keep an influx of mid-level clouds overhead Sunday night into Monday, although a few showers may still be possible. Overall, model guidance has trended down with the probability of receiving measurable rainfall during this period. Temperatures will continue to warm into the middle of next week, with 80s returning for highs from Tuesday through Thursday, with Wednesday being the warmest day. A frontal boundary will also be sagging southeast across the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week, providing the next decent chance of rainfall. Again, details are murky this far out, so PoP chances only peak in the 40-50% range for now.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026

VFR conditions are just barely holding on early this morning across the forecast area, though the northern terminals have seen the winds switch to the north with that cold front even ahead of the convection. The shift south with the front will bring about lowering ceilings and visibilities within rain showers associated with the boundary, as flight categories progressively drop to MVFR then IFR this morning. The greatest visibility reductions will be in any stronger frontally-forced showers or storms, although the probability of thunder is still too low to warrant an explicit TAF mention, at this time. A few showers will probably linger behind the front into mid afternoon for the majority of the forecast area, today with MVFR to IFR conditions, but a clearing trend then takes place from northwest to southeast for the evening as the winds go light.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.