textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A gradual warming trend commences through the end of the work week.

- After a lull in convection for most places this week, a shower and thunderstorm potential returns for the latter part of the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1151 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

No significant changes are needed with the midday forecast update. T/Td/Sky/PoP grids were updated, with a modest increase in PoPs along the immediate Virginia border.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 420 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

The main change to grids at the start of the extended forecast this morning was to add in more terrain details each night on account of a dry air mass and mostly clear skies that will be in place through Saturday morning. Did also include a healthy amount of valley fog each night. Ridging aloft still looks to keep things dry and quiet through the end of the work week before return flow moisture kicks up convection chances from late Saturday through Monday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period opens in the midst of the gradual breakdown of the previous blocking pattern. As the deep upper level trough migrates off the East Coast, high amplitude ridging extending into the Great Lakes region will progress eastward, leaving eastern Kentucky temporarily between these two features. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes will lead to predominantly northeasterly winds on Wednesday; thus, drier air will enter the forecast area, and with a dry atmospheric column owing to northerly flow aloft, these dry conditions will prevail throughout the day. Courtesy of clear skies, highs will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s across the area. In terms of sensible impacts, Thursdays weather will be similar, albeit with slightly warmer high temperatures (low to mid 80s) as the upper level high progresses east and height rises are expected aloft. Meanwhile, the surface highs progression southeast will allow for winds to become more westerly to southwesterly as the day progresses, initiating modest low level moisture return, although the middle and upper level moisture should still remain low enough to maintain clear skies.

With clear skies and high pressure in place, the primary deviation from NBM output was to add additional terrain influences in the area, with a modest ridge-valley temperature split likely overnight on Wednesday into Thursday morning. With the NBM running cooler than guidance for ridges and warmer than guidance for valleys, hourly and low temperatures were adjusted accordingly. Even so, dewpoints in the upper 40s will provide a reasonable floor for overnight temperatures in sheltered valleys, and therefore mainstem river valleys can expect fog on Thursday morning. With persisting clear skies, low temperatures will again approach dewpoints overnight Thursday into Friday morning, hinting at another chance for valley fog in prone areas.

On Friday, the upper level high is expected to drift farther southeast, but we should get one more day of dry weather before rain chances return to the forecast. High temperatures will again be firmly in the 80s, but with a tightening pressure gradient and southwesterly winds around the high over the southeast, moisture return will continue. Dewpoints in the upper 50s or perhaps even the 60s will be possible by Friday afternoon, and as the upper level ridge continues to break down and the pattern aloft becomes quasi-zonal, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area starting on Saturday. In the absence of more defined synoptic forcing, rain chances look to be relatively low on Saturday, but by Sunday an upper level low over the upper Midwest/southern Canada and its associated surface cyclone over the Great Lakes region will push eastward. Concurrently, an upper level low over the Southern Plains will also be progressing eastward, with a broad area of modest height falls aloft. Accordingly, chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms increase again Sunday. While the details of these upper level features are not fully resolvable at this time, a shift towards a marginally wetter pattern appears likely going into the late weekend and the start of next week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026

A vigorous vort max moving south across far eastern Kentucky this afternoon will produce a few to scattered cumulus clouds, along with a few showers along the Virginia border. This shower activity is not expected to impact the TAF sites. Otherwise, surface high pressure dominates the weather over the region for the period leading to mainly VFR conditions as a boundary continues to sag well south of eastern Kentucky. The one caveat to VFR conditions will be the potential for valley fog with reductions to IFR, or possibly lower, again late tonight, though TAF locations are not expected to be impacted. Winds through the period will be light and variable or northeast to north at 10 kts or less.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.