textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow accumulations are forecast for late tonight/Monday, primarily north of the Cumberland River Basin.

- The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded west and northwest to include the I-64 and Mountain Parkway corridors.

- Southwesterly winds will become gusty on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a stronger mid-week system.

- The pattern remains active through the end of the work week, although confidence remains low in each passing system's precipitation type forecast.

- A much colder airmass is forecast to move into the region next week, with widespread low temperatures in the teens likely.

UPDATE

Issued at 1125 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025

Rain or rain showers are still expected to mix with and change over to snow from northwest to southeast later tonight into Monday morning. Above 2000 feet near the VA border, snow levels will lower during that time as well. Guidance has continued to trend toward a growing consensus of higher chances for around 1 inch of snow if not locally higher amounts further west and especially northwest of the initial areal footprint of the winter weather advisory. In coordination with surrounding offices, the advisory was expanded west across Knott and Breathitt counties to Estill County and north. For the Interstate 64 corridor in particular, there was a growing concern for impacts during the Monday morning commute and high resolution guidance has had an upward trend in that area over the last 12 hours or so. There still is some run to run variability in the HRRR and RAP, etc., but the incoming 0Z guidance and 00Z HREF LPMM snowfall support the areal expansion. Other adjustments were made to hourly temps, dewpoints, and winds over the next couple of hours based on recent trends.

UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025

Hourly grids were updated based on recent observation trends at this point. No changes were made to the forecast for later tonight and Monday at this point. Some guidance has had higher amounts either in the existing advisory or into a few counties to the north or west of it such as Knott, Harlan, Johnson, and Magoffin, etc. Snow ratios/accumulations should be a bit limited at least initially by the fact that temperatures reached the upper 40s to low 50s earlier today allowing the ground and road surfaces to warm and considering model depth forecasts should be considered. High resolution and upcoming 0Z guidance will be evaluated for any possible need to add to the areal extent of the winter weather advisory and will maintain the SPS in areas outside of the advisory.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 325 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025

At the open of the extended forecast, Tuesday will feature dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds. Southwesterly winds will gradually increase through the day. This is due to another system working into the area for Wednesday. Tightening pressure gradients ahead of the system will lead to breezy conditions Tuesday, and gusty conditions on Wednesday. Tuesday, southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph can be expected. High temperatures rise into the mid to upper 40s for most locations through the afternoon, with temperatures at night remaining above freezing, in the mid 30s. The exception being The Black Bear Mountain area which is forecast to drop near or slightly below 30.

By day-break Wednesday, the tight pressure gradient will be accompanied by a low-level jet. At current, the latest 00Z data of the ENS, a member of the LREF ensemble, continues to suggest a 25- 40% chance of wind gusts reaching wind advisory criteria (above 40 mph for any duration). While these probabilities have dropped some from the 12Z run, there has been a fairly consistent signal of abnormally breezy to gusty conditions. This is also reflected in the shift of tails methodology using the ECMWF model runs. It has been noted in previous discussions that the particular data source of the ENS does have a high bias and tends to overdue winds. BUFKIT momentum transfer had also previously shown a downward trend, with forecast sites showing surface winds below or near 30 kts. This has since changed, at least if looking at the GFS (another aggressive model). The GFS now has momentum transfer winds at the surface slightly greater than 35 kts at multiple locations in the forecast areas. As we get closer to Wednesday more of the CAM models will be able to aid. The NAM BUFKIT soundings do suggest momentum transfer winds of roughly 25 kts. Either way, with 40 to 50 kt winds modeled at 925-mb, strong to gusty winds are certainly a possibility. Have currently left wind gusts around 25-30 mph for the area. Locally higher gusts above 40 mph certainly remain possible. Given the time of year it should be mentioned that winds of this magnitude are likely to blow any unsecured holiday decorations. With strong southwesterly winds through the day. WAA should allow temperatures to rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s. A slight chance or rain showers exits early in the morning across the north, starting with Fleming county. As the morning and day continues a front will drop through the area heading southeast. This will increase chances and coverage, though only a few hundredths are expected. Lows will range from the upper 20s to low 30s at night.

With the passage of an upper-level low Wednesday evening, winds shift from SW to NW and become lighter overnight. This will lead to colder air advecting into the region for Thursday. Taking a moment to step back and look at the overall pattern, it should be noted that a somewhat strong ridge of high pressure remain over the Eastern Pacific and Western US coast. What this means for sensible weather for Eastern Kentucky is that a series of clipper-like systems will "spill" over this ridge over the later half of next week. This next clipper-like system does just that for Thursday. At current, this system looks to come out of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies before moving southeast into the area. If it takes a more southerly track, south of the state, wintery precip may be favored. Right now a mix or different precipitation types is in the forecast given the uncertainty of track and available cold air. Temperatures will range from the upper 30s to low 40s Thursday with lows dropping into the low to mid 20s.

Friday as another clipper like system starts to spill over the ridge out West, another upper-level disturbance over The Upper Great Lakes is modeled to progress southeast into the Ohio River Valley and Mid- Atlantic. While models are hinting at some isobaric packing, there currently doesn't look like there's any upper level winds or indications of momentum transfer towards the surface to indicate gusty winds. Model spread increases heading into next weekend, so timing and precipitation details for the Friday type system and impacts remains a challenge. What is becoming increasingly probable is the presence of near record braking cold air. Some locations may be within 5 to 10 degrees of their established record lows, which currently remain in the upper single digits to low teens. Overall, temperatures towards next weekend look to be 15-20 degrees below normal.

Cold air remains in the place Saturday, with highs likely remaining in the 20s for most of the area. At current, models show the area briefly in between systems before the next in a series of systems arrives Sunday. Lows Saturday night are currently around 10 to 15 degrees across the area.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) ISSUED AT 120 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025

Primarily VFR was reported at issuance time across eastern KY though MVFR ceilings are encroaching on locations west of I-75 and north of I-64 behind a cold front. An upper level disturbance will bring increasing rain coverage initially early this morning transitioning to a mix of rain and snow and eventually all snow. Terminals KJKL, KSJS, and KSYM are likely to see the longest period of snow while KSME and KLOZ will be on the southern fringe. Ceilings are forecast to fall to IFR or worse from northwest to southeast between 6 and 12Z. From 12Z to 18Z some gradual improvements to MVFR should occur in northern and western locations such as KSYM, KLOZ, and KSME and eventually KJKL and KSJS between 18 and 00Z. Further improvement to VFR can be expected north of the Mountain Parkway toward the end of the period. Winds will be northeast to north at under 10KT through the day.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-088-104-106>113-118>120.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-088-104-106>109-111>113.