textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with mild afternoons and chilly nights will persist through the end of the work week.

- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 415 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026

The extended period begins Thursday morning with the region positioned beneath an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the Southeast CONUS. Over eastern Kentucky, 500-mb heights around 582 dam lie within the 90th climatological percentile, highlighting the unseasonable nature of this pattern. At the surface, strong high pressure centered just east of the area will maintain light south- to-southwesterly flow beneath mostly sunny to clear skies. Temperatures will peak in the low-to-mid 70s, running 5 to 10 degrees above late-October normals. With clear skies, dry air, and light winds in place, efficient nocturnal radiational cooling Thursday night will promote pronounced ridge- valley temperature splits. Sheltered river valleys are expected to decouple into the low-to-mid 40s - favoring patchy river valley fog development - while thermal belt ridges cool into the upper 40s.

Heading into the weekend (Friday through Sunday), upstream changes begin taking shape across the CONUS. To our southwest, the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance - currently in the Eastern Pacific - will weaken and lift northeast over the higher terrain of Mexico before getting ingested into the subtropical jet. Further upstream, broader troughing over the western CONUS will feature an upper-level low digging from the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. As this western trough amplifies into the Desert Southwest, it will tap that ingested tropical moisture plume and channel it northeastward ahead of a deepening central Plains cyclone, setting the stage for surging moisture values and an increasingly unsettled regime across the Ohio Valley.

Closer to home, Friday will remain dry and unseasonably warm with highs once again reaching the mid-70s. A surface cold front will stall over the area later Friday before the boundary lifts back north across the Ohio Valley as a warm front by Saturday morning. Clouds will begin increasing Friday evening and persist across the region through Saturday, though afternoon temperatures should still manage the low-to-mid 70s before deeper moisture arrives. As that deeper moisture plume advects in from the southwest, shower chances will ramp up late Saturday evening into the overnight hours, persisting through the day Sunday.

Considerable uncertainty remains regarding Sunday's high temperatures due to a noticeable spread in ensemble guidance. The NBM ensemble spread favors a milder outcome with highs in the low-to-mid 60s, whereas the 00Z ECMWF ensemble drops temperatures into the 10th to 2.5th climatological percentile - suggesting highs struggling to escape the 50s. This difference comes down to the progression of rain into the area. A quicker arrival of showers will lead to unseasonably cool conditions, while a slower arrival allows temperatures to warm into the 60s.

Monday, energy from the western trough ejects eastward into the Central Plains while the remnants of the weekend shortwave move off to the northeast. Scattered showers are expected through much of the day as low-level flow turns southerly, boosting highs into the lower 70s. Tuesday, with mean PWATs around 1.1 to 1.2 inches (exceeding the 90th climatological percentile), shower chances will ramp up through the afternoon into the evening as the cold front and parent trough axis push into the Ohio Valley, including eastern Kentucky. Temperatures should remain in the lower 70s ahead of the boundary under breezy south-to-southeasterly flow.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and will last into the night area wide. Valley fog (with a potential for IFR or worse conditions) is expected in some locations overnight and early Wednesday, but a ceiling of mid to high clouds moving through the region at that time will probably keep the fog more limited than on other recent nights. TAF sites are not forecast to be affected by the fog. Once fog dissipates on Wednesday morning, VFR conditions will prevail area wide again through the rest of the day.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.