textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A dry cold front passing eastern KY late tonight and Monday morning will usher in a colder and drier airmass, with single digit lows expected for most places Monday night.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal will be in place over the area through Tuesday night.

- The next chance for snow will come Wednesday night, although accumulation potential appears limited.

UPDATE

Issued at 619 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

The forecast remains on track. Mid-level cloud cover moving into the region may be a bit fast compared to what is in the grids, with minor tweaks to Sky grids to try and account for this.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 254 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

The forecast period begins with cold surface high pressure reinforced by northwesterly flow aloft. While the period starts dry, CAA will favor well-below-average temperatures Tuesday. Forecast highs are expected to range from the mid-20s in the Bluegrass to mid- 30s in the south. During the day, upper-level flow will shift from northwesterly to westerly, becoming southwesterly by Wednesday morning. This will begin to advect warmer air into the region Tuesday night; however, mostly clear skies will allow for strong radiational cooling, keeping lows in the low teens within sheltered valleys and near 20 on ridgetops. Temperatures are expected to rise late Tuesday night as southwesterly flow strengthens. This shift is courtesy of a shortwave diving out of the Canadian Rockies. By Wednesday morning, the associated trough and surface low will move into the Great Lakes. Pre-frontal WAA will lead to highs reaching the low to upper 40s. A cold front is progged to move through the Commonwealth; thermal profiles appear supportive of an initial rain- snow mix transitioning to all rain. As temperatures fall behind the front, a transition back to a rain-snow mix is expected Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Little to no accumulation is expected, and any snowfall will be slushy and confined mainly to elevated surfaces. Confidence regarding moisture availability and total snowfall remains low, as deterministic models and their ensembles lack agreement. The GFS is trending colder, suggesting more snowfall, while the ECMWF remains warmer and drier. The current forecast represents a blend of these solutions, favoring a wintry mix over a pure rain or snow event.

Thursday brings the return of weak surface high pressure that will prevail through much of the period. Upper-level zonal flow will allow daytime temperatures to range from the lower 30s to lower 40s on Thursday, warming into the upper 30s to upper 40s by Friday. Another pattern shift is forecast for the end of the period, with the potential for wintry precipitation next weekend. Confidence is low as models show significant run-to-run inconsistency, but a trend is developing toward a more active pattern by the end of the week.

In summary, the period begins with well-below-average temperatures under cold surface high pressure. An approaching cold front associated with a clipper moving through the Great Lakes is expected mid-week. Rain and a rain-snow mix with minimal accumulation are expected through early Thursday before high pressure returns for the remainder of the work week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 625 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the period, though there is conditional chance of brief borderline MVFR cigs beginning around 12z Monday, especially toward KSYM, and possibly lasting for up to several hours. Light southwest winds generally around 3 to 7 kts initially this evening will increase to near 10KT between 06Z and 12Z especially for western terminals as a cold front approaches, with gusts into the 20 to 25KT range by during the day Monday along and behind the cold front before beginning to diminish toward the end of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.