textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A weaker system will bring light precipitation in the form of rain and snow to portions of eastern Kentucky Friday into Friday night, mainly east of I-75.

- Snow accumulations up to 1 inch will be possible, with locally higher accumulations possible over the mountains along the Virginia border.

- Seasonably cold temperatures are forecast through this weekend before a warming trend emerges early next week.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 616 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

While this weekend's sensible weather forecast will be dominated by a potent cold air advection regime, the pattern looks to shift headed into the upcoming work week. Cool, cyclonic flow around the backside of the amplified Eastern CONUS troughing aloft favors colder than normal conditions on Saturday and Sunday, but forecast guidance collectively shifts that feature off to the east by Monday morning. Ridging looks to build in from the Great Plains in its wake, and the related midlevel height rises point towards a noticeable early-week warming trend. That ridging is forecast to flatten out and yield a quasi-zonal flow regime over the Greater Ohio River Valley by midweek. Around this same time, a cutoff upper level low is expected to open up into a shortwave disturbance and eject into the Southern CONUS. The exact evolution of that upstream feature remains uncertain, but its influence will cause (liquid) precipitation chances to increase late in the period.

When the period opens on Friday evening, Eastern Kentucky will be positioned on the backside of a departing clipper system. As low- level flow shifts towards the northwest and strengthens amidst a tightening pressure gradient, cold air advection will intensify. This will cause temperatures to plummet below freezing after dark and allow any ongoing precipitation to transition to snow. PoPs are highest in locations east of I-75 corridor and south of I-64 on Friday night, but will linger into early Saturday morning downstream of the Pottsville Escarpment. Orographic lifting enhancements could yield between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of additional accumulation on northwest facing slopes, with the greatest totals expected in places like Black Mountain. However, the lack of deep moisture with this system and a slower changeover to snow in the more populated valley locales should generally limit additional accumulations to less than half an inch.

Temperatures are forecast to cool into the teens by Saturday morning, with widespread wind chills in the single digits. Low level flow is expected to become more northerly as the day progresses and a post-frontal high nudges into the region. This will reinforce the advection of a continental polar airmass into the forecast area, and the drier nature of that airmass should result in a NW-to-SE clearing trend on Saturday afternoon. Despite the clearer skies, temperatures will struggle to warm much higher than the 20s on Saturday afternoon, and the persistent, blustery winds will make it feel even colder. A few high clouds could stream into the area on Saturday night, but efficient radiational cooling will drop MinTs a few degrees colder than the previous night.

Another clipper system is forecast to pass through the Upper Ohio River Valley on Sunday, but the synoptic features aloft will have begun their eastward shift by then. That shift should keep the favorable moisture and lift parameters displaced to the northeast of the forecast area, but the system's proximity will yield increasing midlevel cloud cover in our northeastern counties. On the other hand, the building ridge will suppress cloud cover in locations further to the southwest. Thus, a tight SW-to-NE temperature gradient appears increasingly likely on Sunday afternoon. Increasing model spread makes it difficult to pinpoint the exact values within this gradient, and the baseline NBM guidance used to populate the long term forecast grids is warmer than much of the 00z deterministic guidance. It is plausible for Sunday's forecast temperatures to trend downwards in future forecast packages, but southwestern locales are the most likely to warm above freezing and begin thawing out.

Temperatures are forecast to steadily moderate through the rest of the long term forecast period, largely due to the increasing influence of the ridge. Skies clear from SW to NE on Monday afternoon, allowing temperatures to recover into the upper 40s across the north and the 50s in the south. By Tuesday, the entire forecast area will see daytime highs in the 50s, and the southern half of the forecast area could make at run at 60 degrees. These warmer-than-normal temperatures will allow any remaining winter precipitation to melt off, but the warming temperatures will be met with increasing moisture return by midweek. Precipitation chances increase towards the 30-40% range on Wednesday and Thursday as an upstream disturbance ejects out of the Southern Plains and towards the forecast area. As mentioned before, the exact evolution of this disturbance remains highly uncertain. This makes it difficult to pinpoint details like QPF, but confidence in the forecast for above- normal temperatures is high. By Wednesday morning, even the forecast lows in the traditionally cooler valleys will be well above the freezing mark. Thus, all of this midweek precipitation is poised to fall as a plain, liquid rain.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 622 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026

A mixture of VFR ceilings in northern and northeastern KY to MVFR ceilings further south was reported at issuance time. High pressure is building into the region this morning and will cross the area today. There remains uncertainty with the cig forecast for today, with low clouds likely to linger over the southern half of the forecast area through the morning but slowly lifting and diminishing in coverage into the afternoon. Meanwhile, mid- and high-level clouds will increase from the northwest with a passing disturbance after 18z today and gradually lower through the remainder of the period, possibly dropping to MVFR levels by the end of the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and variable before trending south-southwesterly at 7 kts or less beginning Friday morning.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.