textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A boundary wavers over the region today, but measurable rain chances look to remain south of the area.

- Drier and cooler air spreads across the area on tonight, then lingers through the first half of the work week.

- Expect warmer temperatures for the second half of the work week, but with continued dry weather conditions.

UPDATE

Issued at 840 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026

Morning obs were blended into the forecast. Sky condition was also updated through the day based on latest model runs, with clouds decreasing a bit more quickly in our NW counties.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 103 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026

As the long term period opens, a vertically stacked low will be located over eastern Quebec, with broad troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Farther west, midlevel ridging will be centered over the western CONUS. Locally, eastern Kentucky will find itself in a region of inconsequential quasi zonal flow aloft initially, although by Wednesday, troughing will deepen as an additional closed upper level low pushes southeast through Ontario. Flow aloft will briefly become more northwesterly before the closed Canadian low lifts back northeast, with quasi zonal flow aloft persisting through the end of the work week. By the end of the forecast period, ridging does look to build in more from the east. Perhaps more interestingly, there is some signal that a disturbance may follow the western periphery of this ridge into Kentucky this weekend, although uncertainty remains high this far out.

At the surface, high pressure over southwestern Pennsylvania will keep winds easterly to east northeasterly on Tuesday, maintaining a relatively dry air mass (with dewpoints generally in the 40s across the forecast area). It will feel pleasant, too, with plenty of sunshine and highs ranging from the low to upper 70s roughly from the north to the south. Ideal conditions for radiational cooling will allow for a ridge valley split overnight, with valley temperatures generally falling into the low 40s. Then, as the surface high translates eastward, a new area of high pressure will build to the southwest near the Ozarks, with winds becoming more southwesterly by Wednesday. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and low 80s, and dewpoints will also tick up a few degrees; even so, by the time that a cold front attempts to approach the area Thursday, atmospheric moisture will be low enough to keep the frontal passage dry. Behind the front, little change in sensible weather is expected, with the biggest pattern shift being a day or so of northerly winds before high pressure again builds in east of the forecast area and winds become more easterly. Regardless, temperatures will still remain above average for this time of year, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

The next chance for rain looks to arrive this weekend, with the most recent model guidance suggesting that a disturbance could track north towards Kentucky around this time, following the edge of the building ridge over the Atlantic Coast. Exact details are sparse at this point, but NBM output suggests chance PoPs by Sunday, and this is corroborated by a signal for notable rain in ensemble guidance; LREF QPF shows around a 50% chance of at least half an inch of rain in our southern counties on Sunday, around the time that anomalous moisture returns to the area (with LREF mean PW values in the 70th to 80th percentile compared to climatology). Of course, this comes with the caveat that these forecast details may change with time, especially this far out.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026

Conditions ranged from low MVFR to VLIFR at TAF issuance time. Expect gradual improvement from northwest to southwest through the morning, with fog and low stratus lifting and then burning off by midday, with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period outside of valley fog tonight, which at this time is not expected to impact the terminals. Winds will be light and variable or from a general north to northeast direction at 5 kts or less through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.