textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The risk of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the weekend and into the middle of next week, with the greatest coverage for the area as a whole today and Saturday as well as from Tuesday through Thursday. - Isolated heavy rainfall may occur where thunderstorms are most persistent through Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 130 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did add in a chance for a shower and thunderstorm in the far north for the next couple of hours. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 510 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2026

Near-term forecast grids were updated with the latest observational data across the area, blending recent trends into the T/Td fields. Additional edits were made to the PoP and Wx grids to account for shower and thunderstorm activity developing along a weak boundary across the Bluegrass region and adjacent areas to the east. No other changes were necessary for the near-term period.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 544 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are still expected across Eastern Kentucky on Saturday, when broad mid/upper level troughing will remain in place over the Greater Ohio River Valley. A shortwave disturbance is still progged to propagate around the base of that trough during the initial stages of the forecast period, although it is notably quicker and less amplified than it was in previous model runs. The effects of those changes are twofold. First, there will probably be ongoing isolated to scattered convection when the period opens on Saturday morning. This introduces the potential for leftover cloud debris to decrease the magnitude of diurnal warming/destabilization, which, in turn, could limit the intensity of any activity that tries to develop later that afternoon/evening. Saturday morning has entered the temporal range of the 12z CAM runs, and many of those higher-resolution, convection- allowing models support the idea that the PM convection will be weaker. A few models still try and develop afternoon/evening activity in SE KY, which is notably where the blended baseline guidance resolves the highest PoPs (55-75%). However, the convective parameter spacing appears marginal at best, with poor CAPE/shear balance and poor lapse rates. This is the second effect of the less- amplified shortwave; storms are less likely to get organized and sustain themselves for longer periods of time. Severe storms appear unlikely on Saturday if these changes persist into future model runs.

Model soundings do resolve between 1.7 and 1.9 inches of precipitable water in the atmospheric column over the forecast area on Saturday afternoon, along with freezing levels around 15kft and cloud-layer winds below 10 knots. If sufficient destabilization is realized and additional showers/storms develop across Eastern Kentucky on Saturday afternoon/evening, they will likely be efficient rainmakers and slow movers. Given the potential for localized pockets of already-wet soils from the activity described in the short term forecast period, Saturday's rainfall could once again prove excessive. The related flash flood risk is shrouded in the uncertainty though. The residual impacts of any AM activity and the evolution of the parent shortwave will determine whether or not such a risk actually materializes. WPC has maintained a broad- brushed Marginal (Level 1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the entire JKL CWA on Saturday, but widespread flash flooding is not currently anticipated. Isolated instances cannot be ruled out in any locales that experience particularly persistent downpours or multiple rounds of torrential rainfall, as is typical during late summer in Eastern Kentucky. Interests in flood-prone places are encouraged to remain weather aware on Saturday, just in case.

Another change in this morning's forecast guidance suite is the potential for yet another round of summertime showers/storms in Eastern Kentucky on Sunday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF had a QPF signal across portions of the CWA on Sunday afternoon in this morning's 12z data. It is intriguing that both deterministic models and their respective ensemble counterparts still resolve midlevel height rises in this same time frame. The troughing responsible for the early-weekend activity is progged to lift further to the northeast throughout the day on Sunday while ridging strengthens over the south-central CONUS. Those synoptic shifts place eastern KY within a regime of quasi-zonal flow aloft early next week. The related subsidence and midlevel dry air advection would reprieve our area from the recent repetitive marginal excessive rainfall risks. Thus, any convective activity that does occur in the Sunday-Monday time frame will likely be of the garden variety (sub-severe). It is plausible for future NBM baseline data to introduce isolated to scattered type PoPs to Sunday's forecast grids, so that will be a period to monitor for future adjustments.

The attention then turns towards a series of ridge-riding shortwave impulses approaching the forecast area between Tuesday and Thursday. The presence of these disturbances in the coarse long term guidance causes scattered to numerous PoPs to reenter the forecast by midweek, and pattern recognition suggests that next week's convection could take the form of MCSes moving through the Ohio River Valley. While SPC notes that predictability is low in such a setup, the available medium-range machine learning models and analog- based convective guidance both suggest that a damaging wind gust could materialize within any MCS that moves through the forecast area during peak diurnal heating next week. The arrival time of those disturbances will play a role in determining the intensity of next week's storms, but increasing model spread makes it impossible to pinpoint those details at the current temporal range. Nevertheless, the long term forecast period looks to end on an active note, and interests are encouraged to monitor for updates in the coming days.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026

A lone shower/thunderstorm lingers north of the I-64 corridor early this morning. Winds will generally remain southwesterly at less than 10 kt. Fog is expected to develop before dawn favoring the valleys and areas that clear out where rain occurred this past afternoon/evening, though coverage should be less widespread compared to last night.

Another round of showers and storms is expected to develop later today, initially across the I-64 corridor in the morning, likely followed by additional areas along the KY/TN and KY/VA borders as the afternoon progresses. Storms that develop along the I-64 corridor carry a greater potential for producing gusty and erratic winds. Otherwise winds will be light and variable through the rest of the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.