textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy rain and areas of drizzle will be found over the area through mid morning.

- Much cooler weather has arrived. This will mean widespread frost and spots of brief freezing conditions tonight into Sunday morning.

- Frost is also anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning for many valley locations.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with a tweaking of the PoPs in the near term. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 515 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026

The extended portion of the forecast appears to still be on track for more frost concerns Sunday night, especially in the valleys on account of ridging aloft and strong sfc high pressure in place. The overall pattern will likely keep the weather rather quiet for the upcoming week with gradual moderation in temperatures each day following a chilly start to the new week.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long-term forecast period opens Sunday morning with 500 hPa ridging over the Central CONUS between an ~574 dam low off the Carolina Coast and a ~578 dam low over the Lower Colorado River Basin. The ridging aloft will support strong ~1038 mb surface high pressure situated over the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge axis extending southwest all the way into Texas. The only other feature of note will be a coastal low churning up rough seas off of the Carolinas.

The overall synoptic pattern will largely hold in place through the duration of the long-term period -- though some of the upper- level features will become more amplified with time. The surface high center will also propagate northward but all the while maintain a cool and dry north to northeasterly low-level flow into eastern Kentucky. This will keep the air mass over eastern Kentucky slow to modify through the work week. In fact, the combination of dry air and light winds should again favor significant frost or a light freeze on Sunday night into Monday morning in the valleys. While successive nights will gradually turn milder, the pattern remains favorable for renewed light frost formation on Monday and Tuesday nights in the typically colder spots.

In sensible terms, expect fair weather and light winds from Sunday through Friday along with a slow warming trend. Daily high temperatures start the week in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday and moderate to the lower to middle 70s by Friday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows range in the 30s on Sunday night with extensive frost probable in valleys, but slowly moderate into mostly the 40s by Thursday night into Friday morning. Patchy frost appears possible in the coldest northern hollows through at least Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions with occasional light rain or drizzle will clear out from west to east by mid morning. Drier air then starts to move into the area from the north from midday on, with gradual improvements to VFR conditions from northwest to southeast from the afternoon into early evening. Valley fog formation tonight will likely not impact any TAF sites. North winds of generally 5 to 12 kts will continue through much of the day before diminishing toward evening becoming light overnight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-050>052.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ058>060-068- 069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.