textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers will remain around the area through tonight.

- Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a high risk for frost and freeze conditions area-wide on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Frost is also anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning for many valley locations.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 315 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026

The long-term forecast period opens Sunday morning with 500 hPa ridging over the Central CONUS between an ~574 dam low off the Carolina Coast and a ~578 dam low over the Lower Colorado River Basin. The ridging aloft will support strong ~1038 mb surface high pressure situated over the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge axis extending southwest all the way into Texas. The only other feature of note will be a coastal low churning up rough seas off of the Carolinas.

The overall synoptic pattern will largely hold in place through the duration of the long-term period -- though some of the upper- level features will become more amplified with time. The surface high center will also propagate northward but all the while maintain a cool and dry north to northeasterly low-level flow into eastern Kentucky. This will keep the air mass over eastern Kentucky slow to modify through the work week. In fact, the combination of dry air and light winds should again favor significant frost or a light freeze on Sunday night into Monday morning in the valleys. While successive nights will gradually turn milder, the pattern remains favorable for renewed light frost formation on Monday and Tuesday nights in the typically colder spots.

In sensible terms, expect fair weather and light winds from Sunday through Friday along with a slow warming trend. Daily high temperatures start the week in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday and moderate to the lower to middle 70s by Friday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows range in the 30s on Sunday night with extensive frost probable in valleys, but slowly moderate into mostly the 40s by Thursday night into Friday morning. Patchy frost appears possible in the coldest northern hollows through at least Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026

A strong upper level low/trough and a secondary cold front will cross the area between 04z and 12z tonight. Low VFR/MVFR cigs will transition to low MVFR/IFR conditions with occasional light rain showers will begin around 04z through the overnight as a secondary cold front moves south on the back side of the strong low/trough. Drier air will eventually start to move into the area from the north during the daytime hours Saturday, with gradual improvements to VFR conditions from north to south by the end of the TAF period early Saturday evening.

Northwest winds of generally 5 to 12 kts will transition to northerly as the secondary cold front passes through late tonight, with 5 to 15 kt sustained wind speeds lingering through much of the day Saturday before beginning to diminish toward the end of the TAF period Saturday evening.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for KYZ044-050>052.