textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and mainly dry weather persists through Thursday.

- Wintry precipitation is possible late Thursday night into Friday, with the greatest chances along and south of the Mtn Pkwy where the Friday morning commute could be impacted.

- The pattern is expected to remain active through the weekend and perhaps the middle of next week as well, though long term forecast confidence in details remains low.

UPDATE

Issued at 1106 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

Late evening update is out to speed up mid-level clouds increasing across the southern half of the forecast as indicated by current satellite and METAR observations. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with no significant changes.

UPDATE Issued at 910 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

Made minor updates to PoPs and Sky grids through Thursday morning, mainly to be in better collaboration with neighboring offices as a moisture-starved cold front moves quickly east across the area and brings mostly flurries and possibly a few light snow showers, mainly north of Interstate 64. No significant impacts are expected at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 614 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

The early evening update is out. Low clouds are retreating north across northeastern Kentucky currently as low-level 925-mb winds are increasing out of the south and southwest. However, the passage of a weak cold front later tonight will allow for low clouds to move back across eastern Kentucky. Forecast changes were minor, but may not be quick enough in moving the low clouds out of our CWA over the next few hours to the north of I-64.

LONG TERM

(Friday afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 315 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

The forecast period begins with a surface low-pressure system tracking northeastward from the Tennessee Valley, traversing the CWA. This system straddles the short-term and extended forecast periods. We have opted to segment the discussion based on the phasing transition from wintry precipitation to all rain. Consequently, this discussion begins Friday afternoon, where warm frontal passage and diurnal warming will support precipitation primarily as rain. The system is forecast to exit the region by late Saturday morning. However, a brief period of wintry mix remains plausible on the back side of the departing system as cold-air advection returns to the region. Surface high pressure builds into the area following the systems departure. Nevertheless, upper-level southwesterly flow will maintain relatively mild temperatures for Saturday.

An upper-level trough stalled over the Hudson Bay area and an impinging shortwave trough moving off the Rocky Mountains will interact beginning Sunday, driving the weather pattern from Sunday through late Monday. The first of these perturbations is associated with a dry cold front extending from the Hudson Bay trough. A key feature is the zone of baroclinicity that the secondary low-pressure system, originating from the Rockies, can track along. This secondary system is more moisture-rich and should yield higher probabilities for rain and snow beginning early Sunday morning and persisting through late Monday morning. Precipitation type (p-type) will be temperature-driven, with daytime temperatures generally supporting rain, while overnight temperatures will favor a wintry mix or snow. Model confidence is low regarding thermal profiles and the precise track of the low-pressure center. Therefore, little confidence is placed in deterministic snowfall totals. Behind this system, surface high pressure will rebuild across the area for Tuesday, but model trends indicate another system approaching by the end of the forecast period.

The period will be characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances traversing the area, bringing an array of precipitation types followed by interludes of high pressure. Temperatures are generally forecast to remain below average for this time of year.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday) ISSUED AT 1134 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025

Mid-level clouds are developing from west to east across the area, with IFR cigs rapidly approaching KSYM from the west, poised to arrive at the terminal not too long after TAF issuance. These low-MVFR/IFR cigs will move west to east and expand south with time as a cold front passes late tonight, and then largely persist across the terminals until around 00z Fri before beginning to scatter out as the next system quickly approaches from the west. Winds will remain light and variable through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.