textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather is expected into the day Friday.

- Showers are likely from Friday evening/night into Saturday, with a few general thunderstorms possible.

- A stronger system brings another chance for widespread showers and storms late Monday into Tuesday, but severe weather potential is uncertain in Eastern Kentucky.

UPDATE

Issued at 626 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026

Late afternoon/early evening update is out with no major changes besides very minor updates to Sky and hourly T/Td grids.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 546 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Confidence remains high that Eastern Kentucky will see multiple chances for measurable precipitation during the long term forecast period. A pattern shift is coming, with multiple shortwave disturbances gradually eroding the dominant ridging over the SE CONUS. The first of these disturbances will move through the Ohio River Valley on Saturday, after producing some upstream convection on Friday night. As that activity enters the temporal range of higher-resolution models, the forecast guidance suite is suggesting that it may be in a weakening state, perhaps with lesser rain coverage on Saturday morning than in previous forecasts' thinking. Guidance has collectively trended the parent shortwave ejection and related surface frontal passage later in the day on Saturday, and this yields an interesting forecast for Saturday afternoon and evening. If activity is rather meek/disorganized when the period opens on Saturday morning, the arrival of the lagged forcing could spark additional convection on Saturday afternoon/evening. The greatest chances for this currently look to be in eastern and southern portions of the CWA, but the intensity of this activity is contingent on the conditions realized on Saturday morning. There should be sufficient instability for a few thunderstorms (pre- frontal highs are in the 70s, pre-frontal dews are in the low 60s, and mean LREF values are around 500 J/kg), but bulk shear looks rather weak (less than 25 knots). Any stronger storms on Saturday would need higher-than-expected instability due to lower-than- expected cloud cover earlier in the day, and they would likely need to take advantage of a leftover mesoscale-type boundary to organize. Convective trends will be monitored closely, but this first event continues to look more beneficial than it does impactful.

While the aforementioned weakening trend with Friday night's activity has caused the first wave's QPF numbers to tick downwards, a wetting rain (>0.10 inches) is still likely. Given that the entire JKL CWA was placed in either D1 (Moderate Drought) or D2 (Severe Drought) in today's US Drought Monitor update, any rain will prove highly beneficial. A north-south range of 0.2-0.4 inches of rain is currently included in the forecast grids from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening, with locally higher amounts possible wherever any additional thunderstorms track in Southern KY. 12z LREF probabilities for at least 0.1 inches of rain from this first round remain in the 85-95% range area-wide, but if the accumulation threshold is raised to 0.25 inches, greater than 60% probabilities become confined to the south of the I-64 corridor. Expect rain chances and sky cover to taper off from NW to SE once the cold front passes through on Saturday evening.

A pronounced shift to north-northwesterly surface winds will advect a cooler and drier airmass into the region for Saturday night, and the building of a shortwave ridge aloft supports the idea that Saturday night could feature efficient diurnal processes. If sufficient clearing is realized, ridge-valley temperature splits and river valley fog could come to fruition. Forecast uncertainty precludes the mention of anything beyond patchy fog in this forecast package's grids, but the combination of wet grounds and a drier upstream airmass results in perhaps the most favorable fog forecast so far this season. Under the influence of that ridging, Sunday continues to look like a warmer and drier day, with partly cloudy skies and highs in the upper 70s/near 80. However, the ridge quickly propagates east throughout the day, and the previous day's boundary begins to move north as a warm front as upstream cyclogenesis occurs on Sunday night. The resultant return flow aloft could lead to warm- air advection type showers in southern portions of the forecast area on Sunday evening/night, and this will set the stage for a second, more robust system to approach the forecast area early next week.

Models continue to depict more robust upper- and mid-atmospheric support for Monday and Tuesday's storm system. A second, sharper and negatively-tilted trough ejects into the Ohio River Valley at some point in this time frame, with this morning's guidance cycle trending a little bit later. The previously-mentioned surface cyclogenesis out ahead of this feature will pull the warm frontal boundary closer to the Ohio River on Monday morning. This places the forecast area firmly within the warm sector of this system, with vertically stacked southerly to southwesterly flow throughout the column. Open warm sector convection cannot be ruled out during peak diurnal heating on Monday, but the best frontal forcing and kinematic lift will lag out to the west, closer to Paducah. As the parent features shift northeast into the Great Lakes overnight, a pronounced 45-55 knot 850mb jet will pump a plume of instability out ahead of the front. We will need to monitor the potential for upstream convection to congeal into a QLCS, but the trend towards later arrival in Eastern Kentucky means that those storms may arrive at the diurnal instability minima. Thus, the highest severe potential on Monday will likely be relegated to the west of the I-65 corridor, but lower-tier SPC outlooks may be introduced to our portions of the state as the event approaches. If this second system's cold front continues to trend later, the severe risk in Eastern Kentucky could continue into Tuesday. Some of today's deterministic model guidance suggests that sufficient destabilization could occur on Tuesday afternoon after Monday night's activity pushes eat, and the shear with this second system is poised to be much higher than it was with the first. As such, this system still bears watching, and interests are encouraged to stay tuned to future forecast updates. Forecast confidence will continue to improve as the evolution of the first system is solidified and as the second system enters the temporal range of high-res guidance. In summary, and as per usual, the severe weather potential in Eastern KY with both systems is highly contingent upon the evolution of upstream activity.

Regardless of severe storm potential, an additional wetting rainfall is likely early next week. The highest rain chances (still in the 80- 90% range) currently fall immediately ahead of the frontal passage on Monday night into Tuesday morning, with lower, but still mentionable chances on Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Today's LREF probabilities for >= 0.25 inches of rain with this system are between 60-80%, with the highest values in western locales. If this threshold is increased to 0.50 inches, those probabilities decrease to the 30-50% range, but this particular ensemble does not take into account convective-allowing models at the current temporal range. Locally higher precipitation totals are plausible wherever thunderstorms track, and especially wherever multiple rounds of activity occur. The forecast grids continue to depict a widespread 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain between Monday morning and Tuesday evening, but there will likely be greater spatial variability in the system totals than what is currently in there.

Deterministic model spread begins to increase towards the middle of next week, but there are hints at a cooler and wetter pattern to wrap up April and begin the month of May. Altogether, this should help mitigate the ongoing drought and fire weather concerns in Kentucky.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, though after 21z Friday PROB30 groups have been added at KSYM, KIOB, and KSME for low chances of showers and/or thunderstorms, with MVFR or lower conditions possible if those were to verify.

West-southwest to southwest winds will decouple or diminish to less than 5 kts this evening through the overnight, with winds increasing again to the 6 to 12 kt sustained range by 16z Friday, with a few gusts reaching to 20 kts in the afternoon during the peak mixing period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.