textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm conditions are expected to develop Tuesday and last into Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front that will reach eastern Kentucky Wednesday night.

- This cold front will bring widespread rain and higher rainfall totals Wednesday into early Thursday.

- A cooling trend will take place from the middle of the week into this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1050 PM EST MON NOV 2 2026

Aside from ridges and open terrain, temps have fallen off more than was anticipated this evening. The colder locations are saturating, which will slow the fall going forward. However, lows are going to be below what was forecast, and adjustments have been made.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM EST MON NOV 2 2026

Early evening obs were blended into the forecast, without any substantive changes to the night as a whole.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 320 PM EST MON NOV 2 2026

Tuesday Afternoon Through Sunday

Somewhat active weather is progged to return during this period starting Wednesday. A large and mature upper level trough will continue towards the region at the start of the period bringing a surface low and a trailing cold front. At the time of our rain chances the surface low will be near The Great Lakes and the cold front will drape all the way south to the Gulf of America. Our rain chances Wednesday will come from that cold front as it moves east. With plenty of moisture and the front providing a forcing mechanism, at least scattered showers are expected throughout the day on Wednesday. A few hundred j/kg of MUCAPE could support some thunder and heavier rain at times, but chances for organized severe weather seem to be nill. Rain chances should exit eastern KY sometime Wednesday night leading to dry conditions on Thursday and highs in the low-mid 70s.

Shortly thereafter another upper level wave ejects and quickly moves through the region to end the work week. Model guidance don't really show any PoPs associated with this wave despite a 500mb vort max and notable 500mb height falls. A look at forecast soundings show a pretty dry column, probably from moisture being wiped out from Wednesday's cold front and the atmosphere not being able to recover yet. Dry air certainly makes sense, but am wondering if models are overdoing the amount of dry air. Either way it'll need to be watched to see if we start to trend wetter. Currently thinking most of the area will stay dry Thursday and Friday but a few isolated showers can't be ruled out. Look for highs on Friday to be around 70.

Scattered rain chances will likely remain for the weekend as models suggest one or two more quick trough ejections move through the region. Confidence is lower on the evolution of rain chances this weekend, but given the upper level pattern, rain chances seem probable. Highs will be more mild in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Something worth noting in terms of temperatures is that by this weekend and into next week we will have a negative AO, NAO, and positive PNA (cold phases). This lends towards an increased potential for us to see moments of below average temperatures into at least early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 628 PM EST MON NOV 2 2026

Any remaining VFR ceilings (in the 5-10K ft AGL range) over the northern portion of the JKL forecast area will depart this evening. This will leave mainly thin high clouds overnight into the day Monday. Valley fog is expected to bring localized IFR or worse conditions late tonight and early Monday, but it is not forecast to affect TAF sites.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.