textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Briefly warmer weather lingers one more day before very cold temperatures descend into Kentucky tonight and Friday - lasting well into next week.

- A major winter storm system is on track to bring significant snow and ice accumulations this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 1005 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026

Morning obs were blended into the forecast-- without any substantive changes.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 423 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026

The forecast period begins with a post-frontal surface high pressure system building southward from central Canada into the Upper Midwest. While the center of the high remains to the northwest, its influence will provide a cold, dry antecedent air mass across eastern Kentucky. Simultaneously, a potent surface low, preformed over southern Texas, will track along a stalled baroclinic zone. This feature is expected to eject quickly northeastward, reaching the doorstep of the CWA by Saturday morning. Overnight temperatures Friday night are forecast to range from the single digits in the Bluegrass to the upper teens near the Tennessee border.

By Saturday morning, the surface low is progged to move through the Tennessee Valley, with snow showers increasing from the southwest. Deep-layer cold air will initially support snow across the entire region. However, recent ENS and GEFS ensemble trends suggest the surface low will track along the spine of the Appalachians before pivoting northwest over the CWA by Sunday morning. This more inland track will allow a warm conveyor belt to infiltrate the mid-levels, leading to a transition toward a wintry mix Saturday afternoon. This mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet is most likely south of the Hal Rogers Parkway and KY-80 corridor, though it could extend as far north as a line from Estill to Martin County. The highest snowfall totals are anticipated north of this transition line, specifically across the Bluegrass and I-64 corridor. Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact track; a northward shift would increase the inland penetration of the warm nose, whereas a southward shift would keep the column colder and increase snowfall totals. Despite track nuances, LREF probabilities indicate high confidence in significant accumulations. Probabilities for exceeding 4 inches (Winter Storm Warning criteria) range from 50 to 100 percent across the region. For 8 inches, probabilities exceed 50 percent north of KY-80, reaching 75 percent near I-64. There is even a 30 to 50 percent chance of totals exceeding 12 inches from Somerset to Paintsville and points north. As the system exits Sunday night, strong CAA will transition any remaining precipitation back to snow before ending Monday morning.

Behind the departing low, an Arctic high will settle over the region. Strong CAA will usher in the coldest temperatures of the season, with Monday highs struggling to reach the upper teens or mid- 20s. Overnight lows Monday night are expected to drop into the single digits or below zero, further enhanced by optimal radiational cooling over a fresh snowpack. While a shift to quasi-zonal flow will allow a gradual moderating trend into the 20s and 30s later in the week, a weak clipper system may bring renewed snowfall chances by the end of the period.

A significant storm system originating from the Southern Plains will bring widespread snowfall and a wintry mix to the region through the weekend. High confidence exists for totals exceeding 4 inches in many areas. Following the storm, an Arctic air mass will result in the coldest temperatures of the season, exacerbated by clear skies and snow cover.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 715 AM EST THU JAN 22 2026

A cold front is moving southeast through the area at 12Z issuance time. This is passing dry but bringing with it a brief deck of MVFR ceilings that is impacting a few of the TAF sites. Improvement to VFR everywhere will occur during the 12Z to 16Z period - following FROPA. Winds will average southwest to west at generally less than 10 kts through 21Z, before becoming light and variable into the evening and overnight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Monday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.