textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front brings breezy winds and a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail, mainly over far eastern Kentucky.

- Much cooler air arrives Sunday, with patchy frost possible in northern sheltered valleys by Monday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns exist Monday through at least Wednesday due to dry conditions.

- Well above-normal temperatures return late next week, along with the next chance for area-wide rainfall by Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1110 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

Forecast is on track this morning. A subtle reinvigoration of the convective showers are noted over central Kentucky from roughly Frankfort down to Glasgow along an outflow generated by upstream stratiform/convective precipitation. Ahead of this activity, low- level moisture is attempting to recover in a SW flow ahead of the boundary and temperatures are trying to rise, though mid and high clouds are slowing diurnal heating. As a result, instability is struggling to build across the eastern Kentucky Coalfields. The conditional threat for severe thunderstorms is still present across eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening but current instability trends do not appear all that favorable for robust organized convection in spite of more than ample wind shear. The outflow boundary and any associated convection should reach the Lake Cumberland and Eastern Bluegrass by 1-2 PM and continue settling southeast to near the KY-VA border by around 5-6 PM. Ahead of the outflow boundary, environmental wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph can be expected from the southwest.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 814 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

The axis of the longwave trough referenced in the short term section will pass east over the area on Sunday night. A secondary push of cooler air is expected on Sunday night as the axis passes. The NBM was dry with this feature, but the GFS does generate some light precip. Have opted to mention sprinkles at this point over the eastern part of the forecast area. Clearing should arrive from the north overnight Sunday night and early Monday. Should skies clear long enough before sunrise, some frost can't be ruled out. Have placed some in valleys north of I-64 by dawn on Monday.

The trough departs to the east on Monday and leaves us with lighter WNW flow aloft until ridging arrives late in the week. A dying cold front beneath the WNW flow aloft is expected to reach the Ohio Valley at midweek. No significant moisture return is foreseen along the front, and nothing more than slight chance POPs are in the forecast at this point.

As significant ridging aloft arrives late in the week along with low level warm air advection, strong warming is expected. Moisture will eventually increase as well, and as a shortwave impinges on the ridge from the west and a weak cold front approaches, there could be a few showers/thunderstorms Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 814 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and will persist into the day. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late in the day and last into tonight, resulting in largely MVFR conditions, with IFR at times. Improvement back to VFR should occur overnight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.