textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will soar to 15 to 20 degrees above normal on Thu. A strong cold front will then bring widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms on Friday.

- Much colder air returns behind the cold front for the weekend, bringing the potential for widespread sub-freezing temperatures Friday and Saturday nights.

UPDATE

Issued at 920 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

Have blended evening obs into the forecast. Have also raised wind gusts for Thursday. Forecast winds in the expected mixed layer suggest gusts of 25+ mph, with lower 30s along our western fringes of counties.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 240 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

At the open of the long-term period, Thursday morning, 500-mb height contours show a subtropical high over Mexico and surrounding states across the south. Perturbations in the overall flow generally remain north of this area of high pressure. Among some of these perturbations, an Alberta Clipper type low transits the country from Southern Alberta today, making it into the Upper Great Lakes region by Thursday morning. In addition to the above surface low, a weak shortwave from around the Rockies will also slowly move east through Thursday. Showers and possibly some thunderstorms along the second systems warm front develop or work into the Ohio Valley, including portions of Eastern Kentucky late Wednesday night through portions of Thursday morning.

Through Thursday, stern southwesterly winds of 10-20 mph bring warm moist air into the region. Winds could also gust up to 25-30 mph during the afternoon. With this added WAA, temperatures climb into the upper 70s to low 80s across the area. As the Alberta Low works through the Great Lakes on Thursday, a trailing cold front will slowly dig southeast through the Ohio Valley back towards the Ozarks. Frontogenesis forms south of the Great Lakes early Thursday evening, with FROPA arriving sometime early Friday morning. Temperatures Thursday night cool into the low to upper 40s across the northwest, and upper 50s further south. There may be some weak ridge-valley splits, however a pressure gradient of 5-mb or so across the area may keep most of the valleys mixed through the night, even under some what clear skies to start and light southerly winds.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely through Friday moving across the area from northwest to southeast, before colder and drier air works into the region behind the front. Friday will also feature a near 20 degree gradient in high temperatures from the northern most location (highs in the mid 50s), to the southern most areas along the Tennessee border (highs in the low to mid 70s).

Friday evening into Saturday, some isolated to scattered rain-snow shower is possible along the VA/TN/KY border before high pressure begins to build back into the region. Skies will clear out fairly quickly overnight, allowing for temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s. The formation of frost will be possible with temperatures this cold under light winds and somewhat clear skies. Winds remain out of the north through Saturday, continuing to usher in drier air.

By Saturday morning, high pressure is expected to be located somewhere in the Ozarks, crossing the Ohio Valley through the day. This will bring northerly and perhaps northeasterly winds into the area. At present dew points in the teens with RH values in the teens in the east to upper 20s in the west are forecasted, however, models tend to struggle with this type of setup. Fire weather conditions are elevated Saturday with critical RH values. However winds will remain light and northerly. Temperatures will generally remain in the 50s across the area. Saturday night, with light and variable winds and clear skies, temperatures will fall to near the freezing mark of 32. patchy areas of frost may be possible with the above listed conditions. Overall, a quiet Sunday is expected with dry conditions and light southerly winds. Temperatures look to warm into the 60s for most of the areas under a mix of sun and clouds. With light southerly winds and somewhat clear skies ahead of another disturbance some ridge-valley splits in temperatures could be observed, however current conditions (pressure gradient of 5 mb) over the area may lean towards valleys staying mixed. With no ridge-valley splits, temperatures are forecasted to range from the mid to upper 40s. If however some ridge-valley splits were to be realized, some valleys could get into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Southerly flow continues across Eastern Kentucky through Tuesday next week leading to WAA and temperatures warming into the 70s each day. the next weather disturbance to move across the area looks to be in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe though finer details should be available later.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, but there will be considerable mid-upper level clouds.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.