textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record warmth continues on Wednesday.

- The next potential for showers arrives from the northwest by late Wednesday and persists at times through Friday.

- A few thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain are possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly for areas north of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Pkwy Corridor.

- Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 505 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026

The extended portion of the forecast appears to be on track for a distinct pattern change late in the week as a sharp autumn trough digs through the Ohio Valley on Friday followed by northwest flow through the weekend. At the sfc, this will mean a well defined cold front passing through this part of the state on Friday setting up chilly nights for the weekend when widespread frost or even patchy spots of freezing temperatures will be possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The period begins Wednesday with eastern Kentucky situated between strong yet low-amplitude ridging over the Southeast US and strong zonal flow to the immediate north, with a mid-level jet streak situated across the Great Lakes region and a low/trough over Hudson Bay. Upstream, an upper low is situated over the Four Corners Region and is ushering a warm moist air mass from the subtropical East Pacific Ocean into the central US. Meanwhile, an upper trough is digging southeast through western Canada within an active northern stream.

Models are in generally good agreement on the overall evolution of the upper pattern through the long-term period. The passing jet stream across the Great Lakes will push a cold front south to the vicinity of the Ohio River Wednesday into early Thursday, before strong warm advection and the loss of northern-stream upper support pushes the front back north as a warm front Thursday. Meanwhile, the western Canada trough will continue digging southeast into the central US mid-week while partially phasing with and absorbing much of the energy from the Four Corners low. This will strengthen the upper trough and sharpen a strong cold front that will barrel across the Ohio Valley and eastern CONUS late Thursday through Friday. Transitory ridging moves across the region to end the weekend before the remnants of the Four Corners low begins to move quickly toward the Ohio Valley Monday as a weakening southern stream shortwave.

Showers and thunderstorms chances increase Wednesday into Thursday, especially north of the KY Highway 80 corridor, with strong warm advection continuing and PWs much higher than normal. Shower chances end Friday as cold advection upslope activity on the back side of the cold front as the upper trough passes. Much above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the front, with lows in the 60s.

This front will briefly usher in a much colder and drier air mass for Friday into the weekend. In fact, it is possible that Friday's highs occur in the morning, with temperatures remaining near steady or possibly falling through the afternoon as strong cold advection occurs. Saturday's highs will be the coolest of the Fall season thus far, likely only reaching the 50s for most locations, with Saturday night's lows possibly requiring frost and/or freeze hazard issuances as lows are forecast to drop into the 30s, with some potential for a few locations to possibly reach near freezing. Warm advection begins to increase again Sunday into Sunday night, with highs moderating into the 60s and possibly lower 70s, with overnight lows Sunday night in the 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026

At issuance time, VFR was reported across the region. Mainly south to southwest winds generally in the 5 to 10KT range, while a few higher gusts were occurring between high pressure over the southeast and a front extending from portions of the northeast to the Great Lakes and then into the Plains. Winds should generally slacken to around 5KT or less around sunset with the loss of daytime heating. A few non TAF site locations should experience some fog between about 04Z and 13Z, bringing locally MVFR or lower reductions. Moisture will increase ahead of the front, and a few clouds around 5kft agl may arrive or develop around or shortly after 12Z. Winds in the west and north may should again increase out of the southwest to the 5 to 10KT range toward the end of the period. However, at this point, convection is expected to hold off until after the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.