textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will last through Saturday, but above normal temperatures to varying extent will also persist through the middle of next week.

- A cold front will approach Saturday and move through Saturday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce strong to damaging winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms are also expected around the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky deep in the warm sector of a system approaching from the west with a warm front located near the southern shore of the Great Lakes. This allowed for soaring, record high temperatures today along with nearly dry conditions - noting the pair of stray thunderstorms that briefly popped up in the western Cumberland Valley late in the afternoon. Currently, temperatures are coming off the extreme warmth with readings running in the mid 70s for most of the area but falling back to the mid 60s in a few of the sheltered valley spots. Meanwhile, amid southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally rather moist in the low to mid 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids while also tweaking the minimal PoPs through the night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 236 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

A brief cool down will be underway at the start of the long-term period as a cold front sags across southeastern Kentucky on Sunday morning. The front's parent 500 hPa trough will be broadening over the Northeastern CONUS with the better forcing shearing away to the northeast amidst an increasing quasi-zonal flow pattern. Meanwhile, a southern stream closed low around 555 dam is noted over or just offshore the Baja California.

The aforementioned cold front will continue to sag southward, string out east-west, and stall to our south over the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians by Sunday afternoon/evening. Weak surface high pressure then builds along the spine of the Central and Southern Appalachians for Sunday night as heights begin to slowly rise. Heading into the new work week, the southern stream upper low will begin drifting eastward toward the Gulf States while an initially low-amplitude trough crosses the Northern Rockies and gradually amplifies as it propagates eastward across the Northern CONUS. The stalled front to our south dissipates and is replaced by a new warm front consolidating north of the Ohio River amidst increasing southerly return flow. This will send temperatures rising back to 20 or more degrees above normal from Monday afternoon through Wednesday.

With that renewed warmth, weak diurnally-modulated instability and minor disturbances ejecting out of the southern stream low could support at least weak convection at times beginning Monday night and persisting until the arrival of a cold front in the late Wednesday to early Thursday timeframe. Shear will also increase with time under a strengthening subtropical jet stream. AI and machine-learning severe convective weather probabilities suggest the possibility of at least isolated severe weather hazards on both Tuesday and Wednesday, though instability still appears to be a significant mitigating factor at this time. The eventual depth of the northern stream trough as well as any phasing with the southern stream energy by mid-week varies significantly in the deterministic guidance from run-to-run and model-to-model. More phased solutions such as the 12z GDPS/ECMWF would support the cold front being more potent, surging southeastward through eastern Kentucky and bringing a brief surge of below normal temperatures by Thursday. Less phased solutions such as the 00z ECMWF/12z GFS would support a comparably modest cold front settling across our region mid-week with subsequent near normal temperatures.

In sensible terms, look for showers to gradually diminish from northwest to southeast on Sunday with subsequent clearing. It will still be mild for this time of year, with Sunday's high temperatures ranging from the lower 60s north of I-64 to the upper 60s far southeast valleys. A partly cloudy and cool night follows with lows ranging mainly in the 40s. Warmer temperatures then return from Monday through Wednesday with highs in the 70s (perhaps nearing or exceeding 80F in warmer locales). Likely rain chances return on Tuesday (60 to 70 percent chance) with more widespread activity (70 to 90 percent chance) probable on Wednesday into early Thursday. Temperatures return closer to or even below normal levels for mid-March by Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 735 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026

VFR conditions will hold through the bulk of the period, with pre-frontal showers/thunderstorms likely holding off until after 16Z on Saturday. Some MVRF to IFR conditions will be possible with this line of showers and storms. After a night of light winds, they will increase out of the southwest on Saturday, with gusts of up to 25 kts expected in most places that afternoon and into the start of the evening. Prior to that, some LLWS - from the southwest at up to 40 kts - will be possible for a time pre-dawn.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.