textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected through Monday, and likely extending into Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- An extended period of unsettled weather is likely to develop toward midweek, with the potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms lasting into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 619 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026

The forecast is on track, with only minor updates needed to hourly T/Td/Sky grids in the very near term.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 257 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026

An amplified ridging pattern yields much warmer than normal temperatures across Eastern Kentucky for the start of the next work week, but thankfully, that warmth will not persist for long. As the week progresses, shortwave impulses will rotate around the base of a broad, positively-tilted trough draped from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest. The passage of those disturbances will culminate in the suppression of the ridge, which places the Greater Ohio River Valley in a regime of quasi-zonal flow for the second half of the work week.

Low level flow becomes breezy and adopts a more southwesterly orientation on Tuesday. This should correspond with increasing moisture return and thus relatively greater sky cover on Tuesday compared to Tuesday. As of now this doesn't seem to impact the temperatures too much, keeping similar highs to Monday - in the upper 80s and low 90s. With more widespread dewpoints in the 60s, diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast. An approaching surface boundary lags off to the NW of the CWA on Tuesday, meaning that any convection will lack the frontal forcing and dynamic support aloft to be on the stronger side. However, that forcing looks to arrive by Tuesday night and Wednesday, producing more widespread shower and storms as the cold front nears as passes through the CWA. The convective parameters and location of storm development for Wednesday's activity is conditional on what happens upstream the previous day, so it is difficult to pinpoint those specifics until we get closer to the onset. However, the stalling nature of the boundary could cause multiple rounds of convectively-bolstered rainfall to track across the region through Friday. Most of this rain should prove highly beneficial to the ongoing drought, and it will also work to lower temperatures back towards seasonal averages through the end of the period.

However, if it stalls out for too long over the forecast area amidst the quasi-zonal flow aloft, the repetitive rainfall will get old. There remains some model uncertainty on where this stall occurs (along or south of the CWA) and how long it persists for. WPC has outlined a broad-brushed Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the region on Wednesday, but will be interested to see if this continues into Thursday/Friday (New Day 5) to account for the continued convection across the region. Widespread, significant flash flooding is not the most likely forecast solution, but isolated instances cannot be entirely ruled out if stronger storms track over the same place multiple times in a row. Forecast confidence will increase once this boundary's approach enters the time range of the higher- resolution, convective-allowing forecast model suite. For now, confidence is highest in the thermal sensible weather effects from this boundary. Expect highs to drop into the 70s to close out the work week, with overnight lows returning to the 50s.

Unfortunately heading into the weekend doesn't look to dry out any. A shortwave will move into the Ohio Valley and amplifies lift and instability once more, while keeping moist SW flow. This will increase pops throughout the day once more, peaking with the afternoon temperatures and diurnal mixing. The southerly flow will help to boost temps slightly, with highs back into the upper 70s and low 80s.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the TAF period, with the possible exception of fog formation late tonight in river valleys, where localized VLIFR conditions will be possible through 12z Monday. However, this is not currently expected to affect any of the TAF sites.

Southwest winds will increase to 5 to 10 kts areawide by midday today, before decoupling around or shortly after sunset this evening. Only occasional mid- and high-level clouds are expected through the remainder of the TAF period, with a few to scattered lower-level fair weather cumulus developing during peak heating hours today.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.