textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist through tonight, before a modest cool down for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front.

- After low chances (0 to 20%) for measurable rain behind the cold front late tonight and early on Sunday, there is greater potential for more widespread precipitation at times next week.

- There is a potential for a wintery mix in more northern locations late Sunday night and Monday, but at this time, any accumulations look to be light.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 251 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026

The extended period will start at 12Z Monday, as a frontal boundary continues to lift north back through the state as a warm front. While precip chances are expected across the entire CWA as of 12Z, colder air on the north side of the boundary could impact the northern half of the CWA, with the predominate weather type being snow. As the warm front continues to progress northward throughout the morning, and daytime temperatures warm in general, this cold air will quickly be replaced by a warmer airmass, allowing temperatures to rise above freezing and all snow to change back to rain between 15 and 18Z. Snowfall accumulations will likely be very light, generally a trace to a dusting (0.2 inches). And as snow changes to rain, any snow that did accumulate will quickly melt - hopefully limiting any impacts.

Unfortunately, once the boundary is north of the CWA, it doesn't look to be in a hurry to move. In fact, WPC analyzes the boundary persisting across the Ohio Valley through the first half of the work week. It's not until another low pressure system begins to move eastward from the Midwest late in the week (discussed in the next section), bringing with it a stronger cold front, that the stationary front will finally begin to exit northeast. With Kentucky expected to be on the south side of this stationary boundary throughout the work week, winds will remain generally southerly. This will result in a warming trend each day, with mid-70s expected by Friday! It will also promote moisture advection, which could mean some continued rain chances. That being said, there is still quite a bit of model differences in how far north the boundary will hover each day, and how that will affect our rain chances for Tuesday- Thursday. Models continue to diverge in their solutions by the second half of the week as well. Note that the NBM is averaging these differences, keeping slight to chance pops in through midweek. Let's break it down by model...

The GFS shows a upper level low and associated surface low pressure system developing across the Midwest Wednesday evening. This would drag a strong cold front eastward, moving into western KY by Wednesday night, and eastern KY during the day Thursday. If this GFS solution plays out, the initial stationary boundary will be well north of Kentucky after Monday, keeping the CWA dry from Tuesday through Wednesday night. Then pops will quickly increase during the day Thursday as the front approaches and moves through. The GFS then shows yet another system developing on it's heels, keeping precip across the CWA Friday and Saturday as well.

Meanwhile, the ECMWF is much different. The more southerly positioned stationary boundary in this scenario will keep precip across much of the state and JKL CWA through Wednesday. An upper level low and associated surface system will also develop, but some 12 to 18 hours later than the GFS - and also a bit farther south. According to the ECMWF, the associated cold front will move into western KY by 18Z Thursday, not really reaching eastern KY until Thursday night. It will persist into part of the day Friday, at which point a strong ridge of high pressure will nose in from the SW, giving way to rising heights and clearing conditions across the state for the weekend. It may be noted that this same ridge is present in the GFS model as well, but the GFS has it displaced much farther SE and therefore does not impact KY, allowing for that next system and additional rain chances to impact the CWA through the weekend instead.

Since the NBM is trying to blend the two opposite solutions, it's resulting in more prolonged and lower rain chances through much of the work week than what will likely be realized. Interestingly, it is also favoring the increase in rain chances (GFS solution) for the weekend, with pops increasing to likely for much of the CWA. Unfortunately, this is not agreed upon by the ECMWF, so expect these higher pops to start decreasing with the next runs of the NBM - at least until models can come into a better agreement.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2026

VFR conditions are prevailing with this TAF issuance. This will persist through much of the afternoon; however, overnight tonight increasing and lowering CIGS is anticipated as a system moves through the Ohio Valley. CIGS are forecast to dip into low-end VFR/high end MVFR after 12Z but quickly improving back to VFR by 17Z. Isolated showers may be possible but confidence on placement was lacking; therefore, PoP chances were omitted from all TAF sites. Winds are forecast to be light and variable through the period but will pick up toward the end of the period with the passing disturbance.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.