textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures are expected today before a cooldown behind a passing weather system. - Rain and snow is expected to develop this afternoon into this evening, with minor snow accumulations possible especially along and north of the Mountain Parkway.

- Regardless of whether snow or rain falls today through Wednesday, frozen surface and sub-surface conditions will result slick spots on untreated travel surfaces even when air temperatures are above freezing.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 305 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026

The consensus of guidance is for the period to begin with an upper level ridge in the western Conus and a trough extending from eastern Canada into portions of the central to eastern Conus. This general pattern remains with a tendency in guidance for the ridge axis to shift into the Central Conus to end the week or over the weekend as an upper low/trough moves into the southwest Conus. Further downstream, the axis of the trough extending from eastern Canada into the eastern Conus may shift east of the eastern seaboard over the weekend per 00Z LREF mean. Northwest flow or west northwest flow aloft largely prevails across the OH Valley, Appalachians, and Commonwealth for the long term period, maintaining below normal temperatures.

At the surface, the system that will have brought wintry precipitation during the short term period should be shifting east and southeast of the region as it precedes a 500 mb shortwave axis that moves across the OH and TN Valleys from Wednesday into Wednesday night. Enough low to mid level moisture may linger nearer to the VA border for some light precipitation (mainly light snow) to be possible in that area on Wednesday as the upper trough passes.

Drier weather follows for Wednesday night into Thursday night. However, another clipper system passing to the north and northeast of the area from Thursday night to Friday night in the northwest flow regime should track across the Great Lakes to the Northeast could result in some rain or snow showers across portions of eastern KY on Friday as its sfc fronts cross the area. As colder air moves into the area, any remaining showers should trend toward snow showers on Friday night. The consensus of guidance is for generally dry weather to end the long term period with sfc high pressure largely dominant.

Temperatures on the order of 10 to 20 degrees below normal are expected to begin the long term period for Wednesday to Thursday behind the early week system, with the greatest departures for highs. Although below normal, these readings will not be as below normal as what has been observed recently. Another breif warmup is anticipated for Thursday night and Friday, as the clipper system nears, but temperatures should still average at least 5 degrees below normal. Behind that system, below normal temperatures are expected to continue with the largest departure being for highs on Saturday on the order of 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Depending on the degree of clearing or scattering of low and mid level clouds, valleys could end up cooler than the NBM deterministic for Saturday night.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 1159 PM EST MON FEB 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period with ceilings of 3.5-5K ft AGL found near/northeast of US-421. Trends would favor these ceilings continuing to slowly erode from southwest to northeast overnight while additional mid and high level clouds move in the from the west. A weak system is then expected to bring rain and snow to the area on Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing the return of deteriorating flight conditions. Winds will be variable around 5 kts or less through the period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for KYZ044-050>052.