textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will persist into Saturday, before a modest cool down for Sunday and Monday behind a cold front.

- After low chances (<20%) for measurable rain in the north behind a late weekend cold front, there is greater potential for more widespread precipitation at times next week.

- There is a potential for a wintery mix in more northern locations Sunday night and Monday, but at this time, any accumulations look to be light.

LONG TERM

(After midnight Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 642 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

The long term forecast period continues to look quite active here in Eastern Kentucky. The forecast guidance suite collectively resolves a regime of quasi-zonal flow over the region through midweek, with multiple embedded shortwave disturbances. As each of these impulses approaches the Ohio River Valley, they will reinforce a warm air advection regime and push a stalled frontal boundary further to the north. This set-up yields repetitive precipitation chances amidst an overarching warming trend, and we will have to closely monitor the potential for convection and river/stream rises towards the end of the period as a result. Before then, however, our attention will be focused upon a marginal winter weather set-up from Sunday night into Monday afternoon.

When the period opens on Sunday night, the forecast area will be positioned between a Canadian high to the north and a stalled frontal boundary to the south. The resultant northeasterly surface flow will advect a shallow layer of sub-freezing air into the northern half of the commonwealth. Areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway corridor are most likely to see minimum temperatures below 32 degrees headed into Monday morning, with 55-75% probabilities noted in both the LREF and NBM ensembles. As upstream cyclogenesis occurs on Monday morning within a baroclinic zone centered over the Lower Ohio River Valley, above-surface flow at the 925/850mb levels will veer towards the southwest and introduce warm air advection/moisture return to the column. This causes precipitation chances to increase ahead of the Monday morning commute, but makes the precipitation type forecast more complicated.

Over the past 24 hours, forecast guidance has generally shifted the synoptic features associated with this event further to the north. Likewise, the onset time of precipitation has trended later, which will increase the influence of the warm nose on the p-type forecast. Ensemble mean soundings depict it over southern Kentucky on Monday morning and then moving into northern Kentucky on Monday afternoon. This gives credence to the notion that precipitation closer to the Tennessee state line will likely fall as rain, but the exact p-type forecast further to the north remains unclear. Because higher- resolution forecast model soundings are not available at the current temporal range, the magnitude of this warm nose remains unclear. This makes it difficult to determine the degree of melting and/or wetbulbing that will occur within the column, so the forecast is currently relegated to a rain/snow mix. Freezing rain cannot be entirely ruled out, but the ensemble probabilities for this have come down relative to this time yesterday. The LREF Grand Ensemble probabilities for at least a glaze (>0.01 inches) have decreased to less than 30% between I-64 and the Mountain Parkway, and it is noted that the GFS is currently the more aggressive ice solution. The greatest measurable (>0.1 inches) LREF snowfall probabilities (30- 50%) are still confined to areas along and north of the Mountain Parkway, but this data assumes a 10:1 snowfall ratio. This particular event's accumulations will likely be undercut by wet snow ratios, and the probabilities produced using the NBM ensemble's mean ratios (5:1-3:1) drop to 20-40%. Thus, the greatest odds of accumulating winter precipitation in this event will be in our northernmost locales. The warm nose will reach places like the I-64 corridor last, and the overlap with the Monday morning commute could result in minor winter weather impacts. So, we will continue to monitor this set up over the coming days as the finer-scale temperature profile details become more clear.

By Monday evening, the warm air advection regime will reach the surface across the entire forecast area. This will transition all precipitation back over to a plain, liquid rain. Portions of Kentucky closer to the Ohio River may cool back down to near freezing after sunset, but after that forecast temperatures are poised to embark on a warming trend. The warm front responsible for the above activity's isentropic lift is forecast to stall out just to the north of the forecast area early next week. That boundary will then serve as the focal point for the precipitation chances that linger through the rest of the period. The previously-discussed northward trend within the past day's forecast guidance has shifted the greatest of these continued PoPs to the northern half of the forecast area, with less precipitation expected in the downsloped Cumberland Basin. Increasing model spread smooths the arrival time of each shortwave disturbance, but with each passing one, the stalled boundary gets pulled a little bit further to the north. This allows for increasingly effective warm/moist air advection across the commonwealth by midweek. Thus, temperatures are forecast to rebound to well-above climatological averages by the end of the period, and it is plausible for highs to approach the 70s by next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026

At TAF issuance, ceilings varied from high IFR/low MVFR under a lingering stratus deck near/south of the Mountain Parkway and east of I-75. Skies have cleared elsewhere allowing for VFR conditions, except for localized reductions in developing fog. Stratus has remained stubborn over far southeastern Kentucky but should continue to gradually diminish through the remainder of the night.

As skies clear, the good radiating conditions and light winds will lead to fog development. The fog could be pervasive, and all TAF sites are forecast to experience visibility restrictions due to BR/FG this morning. This will be followed by improvement back to VFR with clear skies area wide during the day on Friday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.