textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry weather is expected to persist through Friday night. - Temperatures will continue to be above normal through Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 952 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025

Forecast is on track late this evening. Temperatures are dropping into the lower 70s on ridges and in larger communities, and through the 60s elsewhere.

UPDATE Issued at 620 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025

Isolated showers and sprinkles have been noted along the VA-KY border early this evening. While a couple more short-lived showers cannot be ruled out through sunset near VA, the existing slight shower chance will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 338 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025

By Wednesday, the upper-level low off the mid-Atlantic will transition from a distinct closed low to an open shortwave. This shortwave will be absorbed into a deepening longwave trough well to our northeast in the Labrador Sea from Wednesday night into the weekend. To our west, the polar jet remains ridged well into central Canada through the end of the week. An upper-level shortwave will be settled in the northern Missouri River Valley by Wednesday morning, with weak zonal flow keeping its eastward movement minimal through the week and into the weekend. Models remain in good agreement about the pattern through Thursday, and have been persistently trending towards a later and later arrival time of the shortwave trough this weekend. Cluster analysis of WPC and LREF data reveals that the model variability doesn't increase until Friday, and even then the primary forecast uncertainty results from differences in amplitude of the developing trough well to the north and out of the sphere of influence of our forecast area. NBM PoPs reflect the trend towards further slowing of the mid-country system, keeping PoPs <20% through Saturday morning. Even so, highest PoPs for the week are at the end of the period, maxing out at 30-40% on Sunday. Would not be surprised if these low rain chances continue getting pushed later and later by the persistent blocking across the central US.

We appear to get the dry conveyor belt of the Carolina coast system as it moves off. This low-level dry air advection would help to reduce the chances of overnight fog, though some patchy valley fog will still be possible Wednesday night.

Otherwise, ridging builds behind the departing coastal system Thursday through Sunday. Wednesday's high temps will be in the mid 80s across most of eastern Kentucky and in the 70s near the eastern ridgetops. Warm air advection won't be overly strong with weak (10kt or less) low-level flow, so temperature increases will be subtle and gradual, only 1-2 degrees each day over the course of several days. Temperatures may approach 90 degrees in portions of central Kentucky on Friday, with locations in the Cumberland Mountains remaining 10-15 degrees cooler. Minimum temperatures will start out in the low to mid 50s Wednesday night, increasing to the low 60s by Saturday night.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2025

VFR conditions prevail at the TAF sites this evening. Variable cloud cover is expected overnight, especially east of I-75, courtesy of a nearby upper level low. Fog formation with localized visibility reductions is probable again tonight in the favored river valleys and could impact KSME towards morning where the TEMPO group for BR has been maintained. After valley fog burns off tomorrow morning, VFR conditions should return. While some mid and high clouds associated with the low near the Carolinas will stream into the forecast area tomorrow, the dominant surface high pressure system will keep winds light/variable and visibilities high through the end of the TAF period.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.