textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Better storm chances return to the southeast portion of the state this afternoon, with heavy rainfall a distinct threat. - Shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for the rest of the week, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Expect temperatures near normal through the rest of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1057 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026

Forecast has been in good shape throughout the morning. Did do a couple of updates to pull in the latest observational data in order to make sure the near term forecast was on track with the current conditions. This resulted in only minor adjustments to the forecast, so no new forecast package is needed at this time. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 445 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026

The bulk of the extended will be a continuation of damp weather with a threat for thunderstorms and excessive rainfall lingering through Friday and probably through the weekend. The diurnal cycle should dominate the timing of the convection each day. Later, broad troughing is still on track to spread south from Canada into the Ohio Valley closing out the work week and heading into the weekend - likely bringing more shower and thunderstorm chances while continuing this damp pattern that started this month.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long wave pattern will be amplified through early next week, as stronger ridge centers dominate from the western Atlantic as well as the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, a deeper low will be churning over Hudson Bay, with broad cyclonic flow fanned south across the north central CONUS. This cyclonic flow will dampen and become more confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by late this weekend and into early next week. Diurnally-driven convection will threaten each day across eastern Kentucky, although areal coverage should generally lessen by the latter half of the weekend and into early next week, given the weaker forcing in place and decreasing PWATs across the region.

Wednesday will likely be the day of better areal convective coverage, as a remnant upper level low weakens but also drifts north towards the Commonwealth. PWATs look to increase to the 1.7-1.8 inch range, coupled with freezing levels above 15k feet agl, and storm motions of less than 10 kts. As such, isolated flash flooding will be possible where thunderstorms are most persistent. Residual troughing will then linger across the Ohio Valley from Thursday through Saturday, before easing up more so Sunday and Monday. Again, this should result in more limited convective coverage each day, although given the successive days of storm potential and continued meager storm motions, isolated flash flooding will threaten at times through the end of the work week. Highs will slowly moderate each day, starting out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, and reaching the mid to upper 80s by early next week. Lows will average in the mid to upper 60s. Humidity levels will remain elevated throughout the period.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026

High pressure to our north is keeping skies mostly clear this morning. These conditions did allow fog formation in many of the sheltered river valleys. However, northeasterly flow just off the ridgetops appears to have been sufficient to keep most of the fog confined there and out of any of the TAF sites. Expect VFR conditions through most of the day but a substantial cu field does develop by late morning. There will also be a risk of isolated to scattered convection again this afternoon though most of the activity should stay southeast of the TAF terminals. Nevertheless, did include a Prob30 at KLOZ for this concern late in the afternoon and into the start of the evening. Tonight, again fog can be anticipated in the valleys but should not affect any of the TAF sites. Winds though the period will generally be from the north to northeast and light (under 10 kts).

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.