textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A passing system may produce light showers across western portions of the area through Monday morning.

- A more significant system brings a higher potential for widespread rain arriving around the middle of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 739 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2026

Although precip is light, it appears that it's generally ending up being at least 0.01". Have raised the POP to likely area wide for tonight.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 218 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2026

A complex, amplified weather pattern takes shape for much of the long term period, with a mean longwave trough becoming established over the center of the country midweek, gradually transitioning east as shortwave disturbances round the base of this trough from Wednesday through Friday and/or Saturday.

A relatively strong cold front will be pushed east by a pair of lead shortwaves, approaching Tuesday and Wednesday and crossing the area Wednesday night through Thursday. The surface front will be weakening as it approaches as the shortwaves will be quite progressive and lifting quickly northeast through the Ohio Valley towards the Lower Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic regions. Models are struggling with the handling, timing, and strength of the individual waves past this time with a relatively high- amplitude short-wavelength wave pattern over the region Friday through next weekend. Thus, while the NBM generally trends dry for the second half of Friday through Sunday, it would not be surprising to see changes to the PoP forecast during this time period as models hopefully gain clarity on the pattern as in the coming days.

The main weather impacts will be the potential for some breezy to perhaps windy conditions as the front approaches Tuesday night through Wednesday as the pressure gradient gets squeezed across the Southern Appalachians, with LREF probabilities approaching a max of around 35 percent for 40 mph gusts Wednesday over the Black Mountain area, with 5 to 10 percent probabilities toward Wayne County and the Lake Cumberland areas. Otherwise, the other impact to watch for is the low potential for heavy rain and perhaps some thunder with a precipitation band associated with the arrival of the cold front. Low-level flow will be southerly to southeasterly, which will mitigate the heavy rain threat downwind of the Cumberland Mountains the farther east one goes, but western and southwestern counties in our forecast area may see enough of a threat to warrant a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall despite antecedent very dry conditions over the last 2 to 3 weeks.

Attention then turns to the next shortwave which moves quickly east across the center of the country and rounds the base of the longwave trough Thursday. Shortwave ridging looks to briefly cross the area later Friday into Saturday, but latest model runs suggest another strong shortwave digging southeast toward the area later Saturday into Sunday of next week, so increased uncertainty exists at the tail end of the long term period.

Strong warm advection ahead of the cold front will allow for temperatures to spike well into the 70s Tuesday, with the potential for a few 80-degree readings immediately downwind of the Cumberland Mountains across southeastern Kentucky. Lows Tuesday night are likely to be quite mild as warm advection and downslope drying continue, with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s, though eastern valleys may be able to dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s if sufficient good radiational cooling can occur during Tuesday evening. Wednesday's highs will again reach the 70s for highs, though clouds and the approaching cold front and associated precipitation will keep highs from reaching Tuesday's levels. A cooldown commences behind the frontal passage Thursday into Friday, though the mean longwave trough remaining to the west will keep the upper flow west to southwesterly until upstream ridging moves over the area later Friday into early Saturday. This will then allow for lows to drop back into the 30s and 40s for Friday night and Saturday night.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) ISSUED AT 809 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2026

Light rain is affecting most of the area at times early this evening, but conditions remain mainly VFR, and that scenario will persist tonight. Remaining rain will taper off on Monday, generally from south to north in the morning. Won't rule out sub- VFR conditions in some locations at times before the rain is done, but confidence in when/where is not high enough to address in TAFs aside from PROB30 groups for a time on Monday at KIOB and KSYM.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.