textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather persists into next week, with clear skies, mild days, and chilly nights expected.

- Light, patchy frost may develop tonight and again on Saturday and Sunday nights in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks. Fog is more likely near those bodies of water.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 409 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Persistence forecasting prevails in the initial stages of the long term forecast period, but change is now visible on the horizon. The antecedent ridging pattern peaks on Sunday, when a 588-590 dam ridge axis will stretch up the Mississippi River Valley and into the Lower Ohio River Valley. In other words, the ridge axis will be positioned immediately upstream of the CWA in Western Kentucky. Such positioning will keep Eastern Kentucky in a regime of dry northerly flow aloft, and the related subsidence should sustain mostly clear skies for as long as the pattern persists. Expect efficient diurnal radiation and mixing processes to dominate the sensible weather forecast as a result. So, overnight ridge/valley temperature splits (ridges in the 40s and valleys in the 30s), nocturnal valley fog/frost formation, and seasonably warm/sunny afternoons were all maintained in the forecast grids through Monday afternoon.

The ridging pattern is progged to break down beyond then, although models resolve the evolution of this pattern shift quite differently. Confidence is high that the ridging will flatten from Monday night into Tuesday. The flow aloft will shift to a more westerly and then southwesterly orientation in this time frame, leading to modest midlevel moisture return and a gradual increase in clouds. Sky cover should peak on Wednesday morning as a shortwave trough propagates towards the region, but this is not accompanied by any meaningful precipitation chances. Ensemble probabilities for measurable (>0.01 inches) precipitation remain below the 15% threshold through midweek. This can largely be attributed to the lack of meaningful low-level warm/moist air advection out ahead of the system's arrival, but forecast confidence begins to decrease beyond then. Some guidance keeps a regime of deeper west- southwesterly flow in place over the region as the initial disturbance deamplifies and phases with broader troughing digging into the Midwestern CONUS. Other model solutions show shortwave ridging building into the area late next week, followed by a potential Halloween weekend storm system. The former solution would favor increased atmospheric moisture, greater sky cover, and thus slight cooler temperatures. While the latter camp of solutions would initially favor warmer and drier weather, there would be an opportunity for deeper SW flow to build into the area on the backside of that ridging feature. If that deeper SW flow regime materialized, the approach of the next upper atmospheric disturbance around Halloween could introduce more meaningful precipitation chances to the forecast. So, interests with outdoor spooky season plans are encouraged to monitor for forecast updates in the coming days, as guidance will likely come towards a consensus by early next week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026

IFR or worse fog is noted in some valley locations at the 12Z TAF issuance, mainly near lakes, rivers, and large streams. The fog should lift/burn off by ~14Z, leaving clear skies and light variable to northeasterly winds. Fog is likely to bring IFR or worse conditions again in many valley locations tonight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.