textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Quick-hitting snowfall could impact travellers on Friday. Most locations northeast of Highway 15 can expect one (locally two) inch of accumulation, with rain or a mix occurring to the southwest.

- Higher terrain near the Virginia border will see heavier snowfall totals of two to four inches through sunrise Saturday. This includes accumulation from additional snow showers Friday night.

- An arctic front late Friday evening brings isolated snow squall threat and strong wind gusts to 30+ mph.

- Cold air lingers Saturday before a major warm-up. Temperatures will soar from the 20s on Saturday to the 50s/60s by Tuesday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 1155 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends. Uncertainty remains with the timing and precipitation type with the clipper system to affect the area on Friday. Some recent CAM guidance is a bit slower with the arrival of the steadier precipitation and there is more rain in the lower elevations of winter weather advisory compared to runs from 00Z or especially earlier than that. The snowfall amounts in the forecast are generally supported by 00Z HREF PMM amounts, however.

UPDATE Issued at 710 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026

Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent observation trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM EST THU FEB 5 2026

The forecast period begins with the region situated on the backside of a departing system as surface high pressure builds into the area, supported by upper-level ridging over the Central Plains. However, the forecast area will initially remain under strong northwesterly flow on the subsident side of a departing trough. This flow may support isolated flurries before the column dries out, but the primary concern is the cold temperatures anticipated for Saturday. Strong CAA behind the system will severely limit diurnal heating; consequently, highs will only reach the lower 20s across the Bluegrass, with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 20s toward the southern border. CAA, radiational cooling, snowpack and clear skies will work in conjunction Saturday night to insure temperatures fall into the single digits to mid-teens.

Beginning Sunday, rising geopotential heights aloft will coincide with a shift to low-level southwesterly flow. This establishes a WAA regime, allowing temperatures to climb 10 to 15 degrees compared to Saturday. Highs on Sunday are expected to reach the upper 30s across the I-64 corridor and the mid-40s over the Cumberland Plateau. Overnight lows will be notably milder, staying in the 20s. This warming trend intensifies Monday and Tuesday as high temperatures top out in the low 50s to mid-60s by Tuesday afternoon. This warm-up is courtesy of an approaching shortwave trough from the southwest. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will sustain WAA through the early part of the week. By Tuesday afternoon, the system will be on the doorstep, and PoP will increase through Tuesday evening and remain elevated through the end of the period. Temperatures will remain mild through Wednesday before trending cooler by Thursday.

In summary, the period is highlighted by cold high pressure yielding to a significant warming trend through early next week. While temperatures will run well above seasonal averages, such a dramatic thermal swing is driven by the approach of a robust synoptic system. This feature will bring rain chances starting Tuesday afternoon or evening, persisting through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026

VFR was reported across the region at issuance time with mainly just some passing mid and high level clouds. These VFR ceilings from mid/high-level clouds are expected to persist until around 09Z before some low level clouds ahead of the next disturbance begin to approach. These could yield some MVFR ceilings for a few hours in the northern and eastern sections through about 15Z before a more prominent area of low clouds arrives along with snow or mixed wintry precipitation. The low clouds, snow or mixed precipitation, with MVFR and perhaps lower reductions should spread south across the entire area through 21Z. However, this steadier precipitation should taper off from northwest to southeast between 18Z and 00Z. However, scattered snow showers and perhaps some squalls will remain possible through the end of the period as an arctic cold front crosses the area. Winds will generally be light and variable or south to southwest at less than 10KT through 12Z, before becoming southwest at generally 10KT or less between 12Z and 18Z and then trend more westerly to northwesterly at around 10KT or less to end the period. Winds should also tend to become a bit gusty after about 14Z with some gusts into the 15 to 20KT range and locally stronger in any snow squalls.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for KYZ044- 050>052-059-060-104-106>110-112-113-119.

Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ088-118-120.