textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Steady rain arrives tonight and peaks Sunday. Rainfall between 0.50 and 1.25 inches will likely cause local rivers/streams to rise but significant hydro issues are not expected.

- Well above normal temperatures are expected next week with the warmest readings on Wednesday and Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 335 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026

The long-term period begins Sunday evening with a 500 hPa trough extending from eastern Ontario to Florida while an upper level ridge is situated upstream across the Plains. At the surface, an ~1005mb low is situated near/over Georgia, with the back edge of the rain shield exiting eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge extends from Texas northeast into the Mid- Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Farther upstream, a deep upper- level low is situated off the West Coast.

Lingering rain will end Sunday night as a drier air mass moves in behind the departing low as the ridging to our west builds across the area. The surface high pressure will crest over eastern Kentucky late Monday and shift east of the Appalachians by Tuesday morning. As a result, eastern Kentucky will end up under a southerly return flow on the backside of the high. This will buoy 850 hPa temperatures back into the 8 to 10C range from Tuesday through Thursday. At the same time, the Pacific low will come ashore, and pieces of energy will then eject ENE out of the trough toward the Great Lakes. The first piece of energy will support low pressure passing north of the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. A second significant piece of energy will eject northeast and into the ridging over the Eastern CONUS. This energy will support another low pressure system passing north of the Ohio River Thursday night and Friday, dropping a trailing cold front across the forecast area. This will bring our next notable rain chance, but overall amounts should be light. Within the warm sector, winds will become gusty on Wednesday and Thursday, with GFS BUFKIT mixed- layer momentum transfer supporting gusts of 20 to 30 kts each afternoon. LREF probabilities for 24-hour rainfall totals of at least 0.25 inch range from 10 to 20 percent ending 00z Saturday. A seasonably cold air mass will filter in behind this cold front heading into next weekend.

In sensible weather terms, look for any leftover rain to move out Sunday night with dry weather and a warming trend through Wednesday. Minimum temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s are forecast Sunday and Monday nights, while maximum temperatures warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Monday and into the lower to middle 60s on Tuesday. The mildest temperatures of the period are expected Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. It will likely be breezy with southwesterly winds gusting 20-30 mph. Rain shower chances return Thursday and peak Thursday night and Friday. Cooler temperatures return on Friday with highs in the upper 50s northwest to upper 60s southeast.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026

Surface high pressure will keep VFR conditions through much of the day today before an approaching surface low brings increasing and lowering clouds after 00Z this evening. As the system gets closer, shower chances will increase at western terminals as early as 03Z for KSYM, KLOZ and KSME but a PROB30 was used to cover these probabilities. Otherwise, better chances for showers arrives closer to 09Z for all sites. Along with higher rain chances, terminals are forecast to drop into categorical MVFR and remain there through the rest of the TAF period. Winds are forecast to be light and variable through the whole TAF window.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.