textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will usher in a cooldown for Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in temperatures a few degrees below normal, especially on Sunday night. - Periodic rain chances are forecast from Monday night to Saturday, with temperatures trending to 15 to 20 degrees above normal for Christmas Day and Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 655 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025

Low to mid level clouds linger in the south and southeast behind the cold front that crossed eastern KY overnight. In the north, some deeper valley locations that had decoupled and dropped off to around 30 or the lower 30s such as the Johnson County and Quicksand KY Mesonet sites and other home weather station obs and then warmed up as the front passed up have again decoupled. Some of the more open terrain and valley locations in the north that did not experience and are now north of the band of low and mid clouds have dropped into the low to mid 30s. Cold air advection is occurring and for some locations morning min T will occur an hour or two after sunrise. Sky cover was also adjusted to better match recent satellite trends. Overall, more in the way of cloud cover is expected through midday, with decreasing clouds in the afternoon as sfc high pressure will build into the Lower OH Valley.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 437 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025

Model guidance continues to be in very good agreement regarding strong ridging that takes hold over the south central CONUS through the middle of the upcoming holiday week, while deep troughing gradually draws closer to the West Coast. After Christmas, the eastern Pacific trough will move onshore, with some lead short wave energy also helping to dampen the ridge. Model guidance has trended a bit quicker with this diminishment compared to last night.

Surface high pressure will have retreated to the mid-Atlantic by Monday night, with a developing warm front nosing in from the mid-Mississippi Valley. Very dry low level air will be in place across eastern Kentucky initially, which will help valleys make a quick drop into the upper 30s early in the evening, before increasing 850 mb flow and associated moisture transport bring an influx of clouds and likely rain across the region. Rain chances will decrease through the day on Tuesday, as the low level jet diminishes. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s.

A passing cold front will renew rain chances Tuesday night, with lows in the lower 40s north of I-64, to around 50 within the Cumberland Valley. Low level warm air advection will return on Wednesday, keeping mainly at least slight chances of rain in the forecast. Highs will rebound to the upper 50s north, to the mid 60s south. Another uptick in 850 mb moisture transport associated with a renewed nocturnal low level jet will bring likely rain chances back into the area after dark on Christmas Eve, with the highest chances favored closer to the Ohio River. Lows will be in the lower 50s.

On Christmas Day, temperatures peak in the mid 60s, although cloud cover still looks plentiful, which should keep readings staying below 70. Similar to the previous day, rain chances will generally diminish during the daylight hours, before yet another 850 mb jet uptick occurs Thursday night out ahead of the next approaching cold front. This will keep the unsettled weather going into Friday, with small rain chances lingering into Saturday as well, as the surface boundary remains in our vicinity. Temperatures will cool off a bit into Saturday, but readings will still average 5 to 10 degrees above normal north, to 10 to 15 degrees south.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 655 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025

VFR conditions prevailed across the region including all TAF sites at issuance time. The northern edge of low to mid level clouds in the 4 to 7kft agl range roughly extended from near KSJS to KJKL to KSME with mainly just high clouds to the north at locations such as KSYM. An hour or two of clouds and possibly ceilings near that level may affect the KSJS to KJKL to KLOZ to KSME area and points south before just high clouds are anticipated followed by mostly clear skies after about 21Z. Thus, VFR will continue to prevail as high pressure builds into the area during the period. Winds will initially be light and variable, before becoming northwest to north at less than 10KT areawide. Winds should again become light and variable around 23Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.