textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing winds just above the surface are expected early this morning. Gusts outside of storms of 30 to 40 mph are possible and could be stronger near and north of I-64.

- Storm chances return through tonight. Some storms could be severe this morning as far south as locations near the Mtn Pkwy, and mainly south of the Mtn Pwky this afternoon and evening. - The primary threat from storms today will be damaging wind gusts. Isolated to scattered flash flooding is also possible in locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 525 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026

Tornado watch 349 has been issued through 11 AM EDT for northern and eastern sections of the CWA for the reasoning below. This line should continue to affect areas generally north of the Mtn Pkwy over the next few hours and upstream training way continue east near the I-64 corridor during that time and concerns could shift to heavy rain and excessive rain.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 300 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026

The long-term period opens Friday evening with lingering broad 500 hPa troughing over the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS while a similarly broad upper-level ridge extends from Mexico northward along the Rockies. Embedded shortwave energy is passing through the broad troughing while another Pacific trough is noted along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Lower Ohio Valley.

This will set the stage for a quiescent and pleasantly cool start to the weekend on Friday night with efficient radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light winds. Temperatures ranging in the 50s are expected to be widespread late in the night, and given recent rainfall, fog formation will be likely through many of the typically favored valley locations. Heights will then rebound weakly on Saturday as high pressure transits eastward. It will be quite delightful with highs in the lower to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.

Meanwhile, the West Coast shortwave trough energy will pass through and flatten the western ridge and eventually transit the Ohio Valley late Sunday into Monday. This will support an area of low pressure tracking from the Central Plains early Sunday morning to north of the Ohio River on Sunday evening and off the New England coast Monday evening and night. This system will lift a warm front across the Coalfields on Sunday, bringing rain chances back to the forecast and persisting into Monday before diminishing with the passage of the systems trailing cold front. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible during this time frame with elevated PWATs, though the system appears progressive overall. WPC has Day 4 and 5 Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (EROs) for eastern KY as well as sections of the OH Valley and Appalachians for the heavy rain potential with this following a few days after anticipated rainfall in the short term period. Another area of high pressure will pass across the Great Lakes for Tuesday and Wednesday with the return of cooler and drier weather.

Forecast daily high temperatures reach the warmest of the period on Sunday, ranging in the mid 80s for most locations before dropping back into the 70s to around 80F from Monday through Wednesday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows range from 55 to 65F, except on Sunday night when forecast lows are 65 to 70F.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place at all TAF sites, with gusts upwards of 25KT. winds will continue to increase ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts generally topping out in the 25-30 kt range. At this time, a line of thunderstorms is expected to organize northwest of the area and affect northern sections of eastern KY between about 08Z and 12Z, and may impact KIOB and KSYM and perhaps KJKL and KSJS by 12Z. MVFR to IFR if not briefly lower ceilings or vis are possible with these. Wind gusts in excess of 35KT could briefly affect KIOB and KSYM and this potential was included in a PROB30 group. The line of storms may weaken as it sags south early on Thursday and gusts should gradually decrease by Thursday afternoon. There may be a bit of a lull in storm chances between about 12Z and 16Z, with a potentially renewed chance of storms through at least 00Z. MVFR conditions driven by visibility reductions and lowered ceilings may become prevailing for a time, with further reductions briefly possible at terminals impacted by thunderstorms.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052.