textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy conditions continue today, with a chance of scattered showers and a few storms arriving this afternoon through mid-evening.

- More widespread showers and a few storms are expected tonight into Thursday morning, bringing beneficial rainfall to the area.

- Cooler, below normal temperatures settle in Thursday through Friday. Lows Thursday night drop into the mid to upper 30s in valleys, bringing potential for fog or localized patchy frost.

- Periodic lower chances for showers return heading into the upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 755 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

Mid and high clouds are drifting across eastern Kentucky just past sunrise. Temperatures are mild, ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s in the sheltered valleys up to the lower and mid 60s on thermal belt ridges and over exposed terrain. Look for southerly breezes to gradually increase through the remainder of the morning with gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph in the breezier areas. No significant changes were made to the forecast.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 401 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

The long wave pattern will remain amplified through the period. An upper level low will gyre around the vicinity of Hudson Bay, allowing for broader cyclonic flow and general troughiness to rule east of the Rockies through early next week. Model agreement is good through the first half of the weekend, but then breaks down somewhat for Sunday with substantial differences in location and strength of individual shortwaves over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

A surface front will be just exiting far southeastern Kentucky by early to mid-evening Wednesday, with low-level cold advection and light northerly winds allowing for low-end PoPs continuing through much of Thursday until the parent trough crosses the area. High pressure will then build in from the west Thursday night. Temperature could dip into the mid and upper 30s for many valley locations. However, lingering low-level moisture should tend to favor fog formation over frost. With that said, narrow rural hollows, especially with extensive agriculture and no significant moisture source, could tend to see a little patchy frost instead of fog.

Dry weather will be short-lived across the Commonwealth on Friday, as additional shortwave activity rotates through the broad cyclonic flow set up in the eastern CONUS. Another cold front will approach and eventually move through the area Friday night and Saturday, bringing in low rain chances. Dry weather returns for Saturday night into Sunday morning, before the next system encroaches by the afternoon, with rain chances continuing into the start of the new week.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the daylight hours with just passing mid- and high-level clouds. Potential shower activity arrives after 18Z with briefly worse flight categories possible at western terminals, but any widespread persistent rainfall should hold off until after 02Z. Light southerly winds will become southwest at roughly 8 to 15 kts with gusts to around 18 to 23 kts from midday through at least early evening. Winds will slacken and LLWS will return tonight as showers (and possibly a few thunderstorms) stabilize the low-levels.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.