textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front brings breezy winds and a chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds, mainly over far eastern Kentucky.

- Much cooler air arrives Sunday, with patchy frost possible in sheltered valleys that night into Monday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns exist Monday through at least Wednesday due to dry conditions.

- Well above-normal temperatures return late next week, along with the next chance for area-wide rainfall by Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1130 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 845 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026

00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the east in control of the weather over eastern Kentucky ahead of an approaching deep area of low pressure. Southwest winds ahead of this helped to prop up temperatures near record highs this afternoon as dry conditions persisted. Now with sunset, the winds are settling and high pressure is keeping skies mostly clear aside from some occasional high clouds. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid to upper 70s most places with some 60s found in sheltered valleys. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints vary from the lower 60s near Lake Cumberland to the upper 30s and lower 40s in the northeast parts of the state. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 402 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026

The upper level trough continues to push east Sunday, with the main trough axis passing through eastern Kentucky Sunday afternoon into the evening. At the surface, rain chances will diminish from northwest to southeast as the aforementioned cold front exits Kentucky, leaving behind a cooler and drier air mass. Behind the main trough, a secondary region of enhanced upper level flow will overspread the area; however, forcing will be weak with this feature (especially relative to the main trough), so sensible weather impacts are not expected. More interestingly, a secondary cold front will attempt to enter the forecast area from the north overnight Sunday into Monday morning; however, as the front pushes south and becomes disconnected from upper level support, it will become more diffuse over time. Given the dry air mass left behind from the original cold front and the weak nature of the secondary front, precipitation is unlikely, with the main impact likely being a secondary push of cold air. In a drier frontal passage scenario, cold temperatures and light winds could allow for frost formation in valleys, although a high degree of model dewpoint spread remains. Notably, a few models have picked up on the potential for an enhanced area of moisture along this secondary front, owing to moisture advection from the central Plains. This moisture plume is highly dependent on the evolution of precipitation in this upstream area given a large degree of model spread in QPF at this time. Should more rainfall occur in this region, dew points upstream could also be higher, leading to increased moisture advection into our area ahead of the boundary. This would lead to greater cloud cover, limited frost potential, and a few sprinkles, although this is presently a low probability and low confidence scenario. The more likely outcome at this time is a relatively dry frontal passage overnight followed by a cooler than average and mostly clear day on Monday as ridging builds.

Following this more active period, weak upper level flow will set in. Limited moisture return is expected Tuesday, with a warm air advection regime and building upper level ridge over Kentucky supporting warmer highs than Monday. This heating will push relative humidity values downwards in the afternoon; with gustier winds possible, fire weather may become a concern yet again. Isolated shower chances return on Wednesday as a cold front may deliver a glancing blow to the northern portion of the forecast area. There is high model spread in the position and intensity of the front at this time, but given some indications of a narrow corridor of marginal instability developing ahead of the front, a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out at this time, although both PoPs and confidence in this outcome remain low at this time. Following this, increased moisture in the forecast area and the return of upper level troughing over the Midwest indicate that the end of this period could feature increased chances for precipitation, particularly later on Friday.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance and will persist into the day on Saturday. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late in the day and last into Saturday night, resulting in largely MVFR conditions, with IFR at times.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.