textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A more active weather pattern is now upon us, with multiple chances for widespread showers and storms through this evening.

- This convection will bring some more highly beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once the frontal boundary finally clears the area late this week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored along with a chance for frost over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 130 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026

Retooled the PoP and thunder grids per the current radar and CAMs guidance through dawn as the more robust showers/storms are lifting northeast and out of the area while more stratiform rain is developing and moving north from the Cumberland Valley. Will have to watch this later batch for strengthening and training for possible minor high water issues. With this updated did also include the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. All these adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1145 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The forecast largely remains on track as showers and storms are moving into the forecast area from the southwest. Updated the diurnal curve with the latest observational data.

UPDATE Issued at 746 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The forecast was updated with the latest observational data. Also updated the weather grids to introduce verbiage for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176 in the Southwest counties. Otherwise the forecast remains on track.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 406 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

The long term period will be generally characterized by persistent upper level troughing over the northeastern CONUS. Further south, ridging will gradually break down over the south central US into Mexico as a potent upper level low moves into the southwestern US this weekend. For eastern Kentucky, this synoptic pattern indicates high confidence in below average temperatures through at least Saturday. Precipitation associated with Wednesdays cold front will exit our area by Thursday afternoon, giving way to clearing skies in the afternoon; however, given northwesterly postfrontal winds, highs will still remain ~10 degrees below normal. Overnight, temperatures may approach the upper 30s in the northernmost part of the forecast area; however, the wild card in this forecast is overnight cloud cover, particularly as a secondary cold front will sag south into Kentucky on Friday. Thus, cloud cover will likely be too thick to allow for full decoupling, keeping lows in the low to mid 40s across most of the forecast area.

On Friday, a broad surface low initially located over the Central Mississippi Valley will translate generally east across the southeastern US. The exact track of this low remains uncertain, but there is broad model agreement that this will allow for a weak cold front to drop into our area, bringing a slight chance for showers. Any precipitation that does fall is expected to be light, and the exact timing of this remains uncertain at this time; therefore, confidence is low enough that I have opted to keep NBM PoPs for now. Regardless of precipitation, the primary impact of this secondary front will be another reinforcing shot of cold air, which will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s and low 40s overnight. Given lingering moisture, cloud cover could prevent our valleys from getting too cold; however, in the event of a quicker frontal passage or weaker front, drier conditions could set in. In this scenario, skies could clear out overnight, which would allow for cooler low temperatures and therefore increase the risk for patchy frost in sheltered valleys. Thus, these cloud cover trends bear monitoring, and agricultural interests are advised to remain aware of forecast changes.

Saturday will be our coolest day of the forecast period. With the secondary cold front through our area, northwesterly flow will dominate, keeping high temperatures below average in eastern Kentucky yet again. Over the course of the day, building high pressure will also allow for skies to clear out gradually throughout the day. These clear skies and light winds will allow overnight temperatures to plummet in our valleys, with 12Z MOS guidance even showing subfreezing lows for some sheltered areas. Given these conditions, frost formation will be most likely on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will continue to dominate through Sunday until the next system will approach our area around the start of next week, although details remain unclear at this time. Regardless, below average temperatures will remain favored through at least the first week of May per CPC outlooks.

AVIATION

(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026

Temporary VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites at 06Z issuance time. Shower and storm chances will then increase for the entire forecast area; especially after 08Z and then diminish again, at most TAF sites, toward 18Z. Sites will likely fall to categorical MVFR and IFR before gradually improving back to MVFR and VFR after 18Z. Winds will be light and variable through mid morning - with higher gusts near any storms. Look for winds to then pick up during the afternoon as they shift from the southwest to northwest with some gusts up to 20 kts possible.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.