textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A dry and fluffy snow event continues into today, primarily across far southeastern Kentucky. Highest accumulations are expected near the KY-VA border.

- Cold weather lasts through the weekend, with at least a brief warming trend early this coming week.

UPDATE

Issued at 732 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

The going forecast looks good, so changes with the daybreak update are just to freshen hourly temperatures.

UPDATE Issued at 453 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

With no evidence of any meaningful snow accumulations occurring below 1,500-feet elevation outside of the counties neighboring the Virginia border, the Winter Weather Advisory was cancelled for all but Bell County. The Winter Storm Warning continues for Pike, Letcher, and Harlan counties, but even here snow accumulations are becoming increasingly confined to higher elevations.

Hourly PoPs were adjusted slightly through the first couple of periods with the pre-dawn update. Otherwise, there are no significant changes to the forecast except for adjusting aforementioned headlines.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 355 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

Sunday night, some upper level troughing will remain over the area, in the wake of the departed noreaster. Light winds and partly cloudy skies will favor ridge-valley splits as a result of decoupling valleys. That said, warm air will be advecting into the area and may keep ridge-tops elevated. Temperatures will range from the single digits in the valleys, to low teens along ridge-tops.

Monday, warm air continues to advect into the area, with clouds increasing through the day. A weak cold front will move through the area during the day from a low over the Great Lakes. Some flurries may be possible, however, as previously noted in prior discussions models suggest drying aloft which could lead to virga instead. Temperatures Monday range from the low to upper 30s across the area, north to south. At night, temperatures generally remain in the low to mid 20s.

During the night Monday, a shortwave spills out of the Northern Plains while a southern stream shortwave also works into the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday, the combination of shortwaves will likely see a stalled front just south of the area. Rain showers, and possibly a rain-snow mix will occur Tuesday, tapering off through Wednesday. Temperatures will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s north to south Tuesday, cooling into the low to upper 20s Tuesday night. Wednesday is expected to be slightly cooler, in the low to upper 30s, as a cold front moves through the area. A trough axis moves through the area Wednesday night, leading to colder temperatures in the teens to return to Eastern Kentucky.

Models and ensemble spread increases beyond Wednesday, however in general the next modeled system could approach the area Friday, before another shot of colder air arrives for next weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) ISSUED AT 625 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026

Light snow continues over far southeastern Kentucky this morning, becoming increasingly confined to the border counties with Virginia. In these locations, MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected through the TAF period. For the TAF sites, VFR conditions will gradually diminish to MVFR conditions as low-level winds become increasingly more north-northwesterly and orthogonal to the downstream high terrain over southeastern Kentucky. Flurries or light snow showers can also be expected at times, especially for the southeastern terminals, though confidence is too low to include for any specific times in the TAFs.

North winds will gradually increase to 5 to 10 kts and gradually back to a more northwesterly direction through the daytime hours today. Sustained winds will then diminish to around 5 kts or less tonight.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106.

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ044- 050>052.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ087.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ088- 118-120.