textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather is forecast through mid week, along with a warming trend. Heat indices may top 100 in many locations Wednesday and Thursday.

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Thursday into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 750 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

Minor adjustments were made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints to account for valley locations already having decoupled over the last hour to 90 minutes. This led to some adjustments to hourly temperatures over the next several hours and for a few of the typical cold spots a downward adjustment of min T by a degree or two when factoring peak heating/mixing crossover temperatures. Valley fog mainly along the rivers, larger creeks, and lake developing around or shortly after midnight will be the main notable sensible weather tonight.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 443 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Ridging remains the dominant synoptic weather feature at the start of the long term forecast period, with the latest guidance collectively resolving a 595 decameter ridge directly above the commonwealth from Monday to Wednesday. Midlevel heights of this magnitude rank above the 99th percentile of model climatology in the blended LREF ensemble, and given that such values are the model consensus, confidence is high that the Commonwealth of Kentucky will experience hot and dry sensible weather conditions this week. The ridging should eventually begin to break down by the end of the period, but this is marked with a potential transition to more active northwesterly flow. Ridge-riding disturbances allow chances for showers and storms to reenter the forecast for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, but confidence in the forecast for wet weather at the end of the period is lower than it is for hot weather at the beginning.

Eastern Kentucky is positioned directly to the east of the mid/upper level ridge axis. The related increase in subsidence aloft will favor efficient diurnal processes for as long as the pattern persists. Expect mostly sunny skies and increasing temperatures accordingly, with ridge-valley temperature splits and river valley fog emerging at night. Modeled 850mb temperatures climb above the 20 degree Celsius mark on Monday, remain elevated on Tuesday, and then peak closer to 23 degrees Celsius on Wednesday. At the surface, this should translate to widespread highs in the lower half of the 90s on Monday and Tuesday before some locations flirt with the upper 90s on Wednesday. The warmest temperatures will likely occur in the northern half of the forecast area (where heights and 850mb temps are the greatest) and in the deepest river valleys (where diurnal mixing will be deepest). Blended NBM temperatures are likely too warm, and dewpoints likely too moist. As drier air mixes down from the midlevels, dewpoints will likely remain below the 70 degree line. Heat indices may remain below the 105 degree heat headline criteria mark, but it will still feel very hot outside. There won't be much relief at night either, with ridge-valley splits above/below the 70 degree mark. Interests with outdoor plans (such as high school sports, recreational hikes, or camping) are encouraged to review heat safety information at weather.gov/safety/heat in the coming days. Take frequent breaks in the shade or indoors, stay hydrated, and continue to monitor for forecast updates.

The northeastern periphery of the ridge begins to flatten on Thursday, which will allow a NW flow regime to set up over the Ohio River Valley. A series of shortwave impulses will then propagate around the ridge and towards the forecast area headed into next weekend, bringing about the next remarkable chances for showers and storms. While 850mb temperatures will trend towards the 20C mark and midlevel heights are progged to drop back down towards 590dm by then, these disturbances will still be interacting with a seasonably warm airmass. Models disagree on the amount of moisture available during this pattern shift emerges, but if enough modified tropical moisture makes it around the ridge and into the column, this late period activity will need to be monitored closely. The available machine learning, analog-based, and AI-enhanced long-range convective guidance is hinting at more active weather in the Greater Appalachians by the end of the period, but it is too early to pinpoint specific timing and hazard details. With that being said, the clouds and rain-cooled air associated with any convective activity would likely mitigate the Major HeatRisk analyzed at the beginning of the forecast period. Expect thermometer readings closer to climatological norms for the holiday weekend, but monitor for updates to the convective forecast while planning any outdoor activities for Friday and beyond.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026

Sfc and upper level ridging will bring VFR for most of the period along with light winds. The exception will be valley fog resulting in MVFR to IFR or in some cases worse reductions in visibility between about 04Z and 14Z. However, this is not expected to affect any of the TAF sites.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.