textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Persistent and breezy southwesterly winds are advecting a warmer-than-average and seasonably moist airmass into eastern Kentucky for the remainder of the work week.

- Expect several consecutive days with highs in the 70s to lower 80s, and mild overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. - Expect daily chances for showers and storms until a stronger cold front moves through the region later this weekend.

- Those showers and storms will produce highly beneficial rainfall across the forecast area.

- A few stronger storms may produce marginally severe hail and gusty winds tomorrow afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 817 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

Winds are slackening this evening with the loss of diurnal heating. Otherwise, eastern Kentucky is still looking ahead to a mild night ahead with lows most likely in the 50s to 60s. Quiet conditions are expected through most of the overnight, though recent CAMs suggest some spotty convection developing toward daybreak.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 250 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

The period starts on Thursday morning with a transitioning pattern in the upper levels. A high pressure ridge will continue to build off the Atlantic Coast, increasing heights across the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, an upper level trough turned closed low will cycle through the central Conus, pushing northward along the rising heights towards Ontario throughout the day.

Kentucky will find itself between the two systems on Thursday, with the upper level low generally staying north and west, and heights rising throughout the day. At the surface, a strong low pressure system will be located across the Central Plains moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley by the afternoon and Great Lakes by the evening, in correlation with the upper level low also moving through this same region. Moisture will be plentiful around this system, with a defined strong cold front extending southward towards Texas and a warm front extending eastward through the Great Lakes region. Despite the high pressure and rising heights in place across eastern KY during the day, we will also be in the warm sector of this system, with increasing S to SW winds allowing for an influx of both moisture and heat, and therefore instability. Therefore, there is a possibility for some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours with peak heat and mixing. Don't expect these storms to be severe, as there will be little forcing and sheer. They should also diminish by the evening.

The surface low will make it just north of the Upper Great Lakes by 12Z Friday, keeping a frontal boundary placed NW of the state, connected to a secondary low in the Southern Plains. Much like Thursday, our placement in the warm and unstable sector of this system will allow for an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon when peak heating and mixing are at their best. The NBM is showing likely chances in our far northern CWA, likely due to it's closer proximity to the low pressure system to the north and boundary to the NW. However, the strong ridging overhead will prevent weather systems from moving directly eastward and through the Commonwealth or points to our east. Instead, the surface low will continue to lift northeast Friday night, with the cold front transforming to a lifting warm front, and remaining well north of the CWA.

By 12Z Saturday, a strong upper level low will be in place across the northern Plains. This system will result in longwave troughing, and will finally break down the ridging in place as it moves eastward throughout the day. Heights will lower from NW to SE across the Commonwealth. With ridging breaking down, the associated surface low pressure system will finally be able to push eastward along the decreasing heights and traverse the Commonwealth. Kept with the NBM pops and timing of the front as it moves through JKL's CWA Saturday evening through Sunday morning. This is still Day 5/6, but given the strong influx warm air ahead of the system (temperatures topping in the low/mid 80s on Saturday), coupled with a steep temperature gradient and N to S flow behind this system (temperatures only peaking in the 60s on Sunday), wouldn't be surprised if there are some decent storms along this system as it moves through. This will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer.

Thankfully there is pretty good agreement of a robust high pressure system moving into place across the state on Monday, which will keep conditions dry. Temperatures will remain in the upper 50s and low 60s under continued NW flow...and while that seems cool in comparison to temperatures leading up to this frontal passage, it's actually closer to average/normals for this time of year.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this evening as the lingering cu field dissipates and winds slacken. This will allow for a period of quieter aviation weather this evening, but a storm system approaching from the northwest should yield an increase in midlevel clouds closer to midnight and a rising chance for precipitation, including thunderstorm chances, towards daybreak and especially during the daytime hours on Wednesday. This convection will pose a risk for MVFR or worse conditions. Strong and erratic wind gusts are also possible near convection as well, especially after 18Z.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.