textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Leftover light snow showers and flurries will end by sunset. - Southwest winds will gust between 25 and 35 mph Friday afternoon. These strong winds develop as temperatures briefly warm into the 40s ahead of the incoming storm system.

- Snow showers and potential squalls will develop Friday night, with chances lingering into Saturday.

- Expect sudden visibility drops in snow showers and squalls and slick roads as rain rapidly transitions to snow Friday night.

- Temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal are expected from Saturday night to Tuesday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 325 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026

The long term period is expected to begin with the axis of an upper level trough extending from Canada into the Upper MS Valley to Southern Plains while an upper level ridge is expected to be centered near the west coast of the Conus. Multiple shortwaves are expected to be moving through the trough at that time with one extending into the Commonwealth as the period begins. Meanwhile an upper level low is progged to be over or nearing the Western Great Lakes with an associated sfc low initially centered in the northern MI/UP of MI vicinity and an initial cold front extending into Southern Appalachians to Gulf. A secondary cold front is also anticipated to be moving across MI to the Lower OH Valley at that time in advance of the upper trough axis.

The initial shortwave trough should depart to the north and east early in the period, while the upper low in the western Great Lakes vicinity should weaken to an open wave as it moves across the Great Lakes. The main 500 mb trough should move across the Commonwealth Saturday night and Sunday, likely preceded by another shortwave or two. The secondary cold front should cross eastern KY on Saturday ahead of this second shortwave trough axis, while the sfc low moves from the Great Lakes across sections of Ontario and Quebec and toward the Maritimes. The axis of upper level ridging should remain near the west coast of the Conus to near the BC Coast this weekend. Shortwaves moving around this ridging are expected to move south from Canada and into sections of the Central Conus/MS Valley, leading to reinforcement of upper troughing from Ontario into the MS Valley to Lower OH Valley region to end the weekend. Yet another cold front should precede the redevelopment of the upper trough to the west of the Commonwealth and approach eastern KY as the weekend ends.

850 mb temperatures are expected to initially be in -5C to -8C range as the period begins on Saturday, and generally have a cooling trend continuing through Saturday and Saturday night to early Sunday dropping into about the -10C to -15C range. Some moderation in 850mb temps occurs later Sunday into Sunday night during a period of height rises/ shortwave ridging.

Daytime heating combined with the cooling aloft and the passage of the cold front on Saturday will lead to chances for snow showers and flurries at times on Saturday. A snow squall or two cannot be ruled out either particularly nearer to the boundary. The potential for snow showers and flurries diminishes Saturday evening into Saturday night as high pressure noses into the region from the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley regions behind the front. That sfc high gradually shifts to the east and southeast of the area Sunday into Sunday night, when the next rather moisture starved cold front begins to near.

Monday to Tuesday night, the consensus of guidance is for upper level troughing to persist from Canada into sections of the Central and eastern Conus, but become more broad with time downstream of upper level ridging near the west coast of the Conus. Behind the moisture starved cold front to end the weekend/early in the new work week, a reinforcement of colder air will arrive as sfc high pressure shifts from the Plains/Central Conus into the TN and OH Valleys and eventually the eastern seaboard to Southeast Conus as midweek nears. 850 mb temperatures are progged to drop a bit colder than this weekend toward at least the -15C level or so if not colder as the 00Z LREF ensemble means bottom out 850 mb temperatures Monday night to early Tuesday in the -15C to -20C range. A period of temperatures on the order of 10 to 20 degrees below normal is anticipated behind the front Monday and Tuesday. Daytime highs should struggle to rise above the freezing mark in most areas on Monday and are probable to hold in the 20s in the more northern locations. Following a night of lows mainly in the single digits above zero, most locations will struggle to rise out of the 20s on Tuesday as well. Some degree of ridge/valley temperature splits are also favored in the more sheltered valleys both Monday night and Tuesday night and some of the normally colder locations could end up colder than currently forecast. The Monday to Tuesday night timeframe should be dry with that trend lingering into midweek.

Wednesday to Thursday, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the upper level pattern during this time frame. However, unsettled weather, including the potential for wintry precipitation, could return as early as Wednesday night or Thursday. Confidence is greater that the cold airmass will retreat at least temporarily to the north and northeast at midweek and temperatures trend milder compared to earlier in the week.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST THU JAN 15 2026

A brief enhancement of cloud cover and snow showers/flurries is expected through ~21z-22z this afternoon, with gradual clearing thereafter into the evening. Cigs will mostly be low-VFR but may occasionally dip into high-MVFR conditions during this time. A period of partly cloudy to clear skies is expected tonight as high pressure brushes to our south. West to northwest winds at 5 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts through ~20z will gradually diminish later this afternoon and evening. Winds will transition to southerly to southwesterly by morning and begin to gradually increase through the day Friday, with sustained winds of 8 to 12 kts and gusts increasing to ~20 kts by the end of the TAF period, especially west of the escarpment, and impacting KSYM, KSME, and KLOZ. Low and mid-level clouds will increase from the west Friday, but VFR conditions are expected, at least through 18z Friday.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.