textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms continue at times through the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall is also possible through this weekend, with a threat of isolated to scattered flash flooding.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for increased flash flood potential across the area through late Sunday evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 730 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026

23Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky dealing with the effects of a gradually nearing front to the north associated with low pressure over western parts of the state. This continues to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area - replete with torrential rain and training leading to flash flooding and high water concerns that carry on this evening. Otherwise, temperatures vary from the lower 80s in places that haven't seen rain for a while to the lower 70s in the more soaked locations. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are generally in the sticky low to mid 70s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to include the current radar and CAMs' details for the PoPs through the night. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 947 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026

At the onset of the long term period, strong upper level ridging will be centered over the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the remaining upper level low will become cut off from departing troughing over the northeastern CONUS, lingering over the Tennessee Valley into Tuesday. With a surface high over the Mid Atlantic region, surface winds are expected to be generally easterly to east northeasterly, ushering in marginally drier air. This, in addition to a decline in forcing, should work to suppress rain chances in most regions on Tuesday. The possible exception is near the KY/TN line in closer proximity to the low; here, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, although with such weak upper level flow, any storms that do form should trend towards typical summertime pulse convection. Any rain chances should diminish rather quickly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

By Wednesday, the aforementioned low should fully depart our region as it retrogrades along the southern periphery of the upper level high. Concurrently, 500 mb heights could trend slightly higher going into Wednesday; however, there is still some uncertainty with this scenario, owing to model disagreement regarding the eastern extent of this ridging. The ridges position will depend on the extent of troughing over the Northeast, which could block the ridges eastward progression. As of now, the most likely outcome appears to be that eastern Kentucky finds itself on the eastern periphery of the ridge, with modest rain chances in the afternoon on Wednesday and Thursday. Similar to Tuesday, these storms should be typical isolated to perhaps scattered summertime convection, and again the best rain chances should be closer to the KY/TN line, with rain chances swiftly declining after sunset. With height rises aloft, afternoon high temperatures should also trend warmer, topping out in the upper 80s to perhaps the low 90s across the forecast area.

Looking ahead, model spread increases, but the general pattern will feature a digging trough over the Atlantic Coast. Eastern Kentucky will likely find itself caught between what remains of the ridge to the southwest and a trough axis to the east, leading to northwesterly flow aloft. This will allow a return to a more active pattern, with more widespread rain chances and marginally cooler temperatures going into the weekend.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026

00Z TAFs start in the midst of scattered showers and thunderstorms with a lull still affecting the south and recently setting up for the northeast. The latest round of showers and storms will head southeast through the rest of the evening affecting the IOB and JKL terminals while to the south additional storms appear to be pushing east into the I-75 corridor and are likely to affect the KSME and KLOZ sites with lower CIGs and VIS. Beyond the evening hours, uncertainty largely remains over timing and coverage of the next round of storms - though the latest CAMs guidance has them returning from the west and spreading northeast to impact most of the TAF sites into dawn. Beyond this, on Sunday, look for that front to push further south with low CIGs the main concern and continued shower and storm chances. Outside of any storms, through the period, winds will be variable at less than 10 kts.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late Sunday night for KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.