textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered pop-up storms are possible each afternoon, with the highest probability remaining near the Tennessee border.

-Temperatures warm through next week, reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1022 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026

No significant changes made to the forecast grids. However, with the heavy rain threat coming to an end and no ongoing hydro products, opted to cancel the Flash Flood Watch early. Grids have been saved and sent.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 934 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026

The long term period will open with troughing over the northeastern CONUS and a strong 500mb high centered over the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the vertically stacked low pressure system responsible for this weekends active weather pattern will have retreated to the southwest around the southern periphery of the aforementioned high, landing in the vicinity of Mississippi and Alabama by the start of the period. At the surface, an area of high pressure will be located across the Appalachians near the Virginia/West Virginia border, placing eastern Kentucky in a regime of easterly to northeasterly flow both at the surface and aloft. This will usher in a marginally drier air mass compared to previous days; LREF mean PW values actually trend below climatological normal on Tuesday, and surface dewpoints are expected to fall into the mid 60s for much of the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. This drier environment, in addition to gradual height rises from the approaching ridge, will work to suppress convection throughout the day, giving eastern Kentucky a much needed break from the rain. Temperatures will generally warm into the mid 80s across the forecast area, within a few degrees of average highs for this time of year. Overnight, ideal radiative cooling conditions will allow for a mild ridge/valley temperature split, with MOS guidance suggesting temperatures will generally drop into the mid 60s for valley locations.

By midweek, the aforementioned 500 mb high will stretch eastward, with the forecast area finding itself on the eastern periphery of this ridging. Accordingly, high temperatures will rise above average on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching into the upper 80s or perhaps the low 90s. This pattern will also continue to suppress convection, even as dewpoints begin to tick up, and rain chances look to remain low across the forecast area. The potential exception is again in our far southwestern counties, where an afternoon storm or two cannot be ruled out. However, any rain chances remain dependent on the positioning of ridging over the forecast area.

Looking towards the weekend, upper level ridging will be challenged as troughing digs into the eastern CONUS. Guidance is split regarding whether or not ridging will break down over our area going into the weekend; the NBM has attempted to average these solutions by providing a chance for rain each afternoon, although uncertainty remains high regarding the pattern going forward.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026

VFR and MVFR observations exist across all sites with the 00Z issuance as low CIGs and precipitation is moving across the area. Once showers dissipate, lingering low clouds and potential fog development will cause sites to drop into categorical MVFR through the overnight. Fog will burn off early Monday morning and sites will slowly recover to VFR by 16Z. Showers and storms are forecast to redevelop Monday afternoon but mainly for KJKL, KSJS, KLOZ and KSME. Those showers and storms will persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Showers and storms could bring gusty and erratic winds; as well as, brief category reduction. Outside of convection, winds are forecast to be light and variable.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.