textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A light, mainly patchy, frost is possible again tonight and Tuesday night, primarily in sheltered valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.

- Expect near-normal temperatures throughout the work week, with mostly clear skies and overnight ridge-valley temperature splits likely to continue through at least next weekend.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 412 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026

There is reasonably high confidence in dry weather with normal to slightly above normal temperatures through the period.

In terms of our local area, there is good model agreement for the big picture until near the end of the forecast period. The period begins with a weak upper level low and modest troughing off the East Coast, and strong upper level ridging over the central CONUS, especially the plains. With time, the East Coast troughing will further weaken and the ridging will shift eastward as troughing advances into the western CONUS, with the ridge reaching us during the weekend. Until the ridge arrives, we will have a dry northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure or ridging based mainly to our north will dominate our area. The flow aloft could support a weak and dying cold front to move south toward the Ohio Valley late in the week, but it will probably not get here, and even if it does it would not have any real effect. Even so, no return to meaningful warm air advection is foreseen either. One model difference to note-- the NAM is much colder with surface temperatures (mainly highs) than the GFS or ECMWF on Wednesday and Thursday. The NAM generates very low and shallow stratus in cold air advection and would suggest high temperatures as much as 15-20 degrees colder than the GFS or ECMWF. Considering the lack of precip or significant systems passing through, this scenario looks highly suspect and is being discounted.

Larger scale model differences finally become more significant early next week in terms of the demise of the upper ridge and how troughing evolves as it advances toward us from the west or northwest. However, in terms of actual effects on our local weather, the differences don't appear to become significant until after this long term period.

AVIATION

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026

Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the region through the period. This will lead to light winds and only a few high clouds on Tuesday morning. River valley fog, dense in some areas, is likely to show up again tonight after 04Z and then dissipate again by ~14Z Tuesday. The fog is not expected to affect the TAF sites with any visibility reductions.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.