textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid weather will persist through the week.

- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms through the week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility through the next 7 days, with a threat of at least isolated flash flooding each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

After an active afternoon of convection driven largely by varying outflows beneath weak steering currents aloft, the precipitation is waning quickly. Even so, a few rogue showers/thunderstorms continue to pop up at times. Will look for the quieter regime to continue tonight, with an overall decrease in clouds as convection lessens with loss of instability. However, confidence in overnight sky condition is meager. With enough clearing, fog could become widespread, especially where precip occurred.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 302 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Thursday, a positively tilted trough featuring an area of low pressure is modeled over the IN/IL/KY area. A secondary upper level disturbance is also modeled over the Iowa area. Further west, an area of high pressure remains of the southern California coast. Heading into Friday the secondary low over Iowa moves into the Ohio Valley, while ridging amplifies over the western US. Late Friday evening a third disturbance over the Rockies will spill into the Plains and eventually into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley by Saturday, as high pressure continues to build into a 598-dm heat dome over the Intermountain West.

For sensible weather in Eastern Kentucky, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, with chances slowly diminishing behind a cold frontal passage Sunday. Model PWATs generally remain above 1.75 inches through a good portion of the period but peak Friday evening into Saturday morning. Those PWATs range anywhere from 2.0-2.1 inches, and according to the ECMWF Mean PWAT, the values fall within the 90th percentile of climatological normals. Given the abnormal PWAT, recent rainfall, and potential to exceed flood guidance with any good storm with the potential for producing torrential rain, the WPC has placed all of Eastern Kentucky in a Marginal Risk on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall both Friday and Saturday.

Tuesday, rising heights will lead to warming temperatures as multiple models show a 600-dm high over much of the Northern and Central Plains. One can expect mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures warm into the low to mid 80s through Sunday, with lows cooling into the upper 60s. With high pressure building into the area Monday and beyond, temperatures may be a few degrees warmer into the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise temperatures cool into the upper 60s.

AVIATION

(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026

Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms were ongoing at the start of the period. They were bringing localized sub-VFR conditions, but otherwise, conditions were VFR. The precipitation will decline further this evening and my be largely gone overnight. Even so, it can't be guaranteed that there won't be something pop up. At this point, the probability is too low to include mentions at any of the TAF sites. However, as clouds decrease, fog is forecast to develop late tonight and last into Wednesday morning. This is forecast to bring generalized IFR or worse conditions, with the worst expected to be in valleys and where significant rain occurred. The extent of clearing will be a factor in the extent of fog, with clearing favoring more fog. Whatever fog there is will dissipate on Wednesday morning, possibly converting to a low cloud deck before leaving. VFR conditions then return until more showers/thunderstorms develop after daytime heating occurs. This once again results in localized IFR or worse conditions.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.