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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)

High pressure ridging continues today and into tonight continuing onshore flow and low level moisture over the area. Scattered showers will continue to make their way inland from the coast mainly over northeast Florida this afternoon, shifting north into Southeast Georgia overnight. Today highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s region wide. Overnight temperatures will be in the low 60s over southeast Georgia and mid to upper 60s over Northeast Florida staying slightly warmer along the coast.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)

Breezy onshore flow persists through Tuesday with a strong, dominant surface high and supporting blocking ridge aloft situated northeast of the region. Moisture will be lacking a bit Monday as another inverted coastal trough develops. The lack of moisture will challenge shower development over the coastal waters and lead to mainly dry conditions.

By Tuesday, transport flow will start to veer southeasterly, sending a plume of rich tropical moisture into the region. That moisture intrusion will gradually grow instability Tuesday afternoon, mainly across north-central FL, where an isolated thunderstorm could develop. Temperatures will be boosted by the flow and will challenge daily record maximum temperature records (CLIMATE section below), especially Tuesday with highs pushing into the middle 80s!

LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Stubborn upper ridge will begin to break down and flatten as a shortwave rides overtop of it Wednesday into Thursday. The rate that this occurs will dictate the main weather story this week - the potential tropical system that is currently brewing in the southwestern Caribbean. That system will be steered into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and slow down and may stall Wednesday night into Thursday as steering flow weakens. Though uncertainty exists in the direction of this system Thursday and Friday, the main threat for the local area will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Latest ensemble guidance indicates, the heaviest rainfall and potential for flooding will focus northwest of the area along a stalled frontal boundary. Temperatures will stay above normal this period as rain chances push above climo with the tropical airmass lifting across the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

Over the next few hours, low broken clouds expected to affect most of the TAF sites with IFR expected at times for CRG, VQQ, and SSI, and low-end MVFR cigs for SGJ, JAX, and VQQ. Appears that GNV and SGJ have better odds of VFR cigs. Isolated to scattered showers expected tonight but will most likely for the coastal areas north of SGJ. The IFR conditions from CRG to SSI may linger past midnight and may need to amend for SSI later tonight where IFR clouds could continue. However, based on HREF and HRRR the IFR cigs appear to shift further inland after 06z into the inland sections of southeast GA. Monday, another chance of isolated showers but looks few and far between to include a VCSH for all the TAFs. There may be an MVFR cig around Monday morning 11z- to 14z but overall probabilities appear low enough to indicate only FEW-SCT stratocu deck for now. Sfc winds will be relaxing from the northeast to about 5-10 kt tonight and then becoming more easterly about 10-14 kt and gusty on Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 213 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

High pressure ridging continues over the area into the beginning of the week as a strong high pressure system over the Great Lakes slowly moves offshore of coastal New England Monday. This will help continue coastal toughing over adjacent waters producing daily coastal showers. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for strong East-northeasterly winds and higher seas over the Southeast Georgia waters today and continues into early part of the week. High pressure moves further into the Atlantic by mid- week as a potential Tropical System develops in the Caribbean Sea and moves northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk for all area beaches through Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Daily record high temperatures for area climate sites early this coming week.

SITE Mon (11/4) Tue (11/5) Wed (11/6)

JAX 87 (2003) 87 (2003) 88 (2018)

GNV 90 (1936) 90 (1935) 89 (1935)

AMG 86 (2003) 86 (2022) 85 (2015)

CRG 87 (2004) 86 (2003) 87 (2018)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 62 79 63 84 / 10 20 10 10 SSI 67 78 70 81 / 30 30 10 10 JAX 66 83 68 85 / 30 10 10 10 SGJ 70 81 71 83 / 30 10 10 20 GNV 65 84 66 86 / 20 10 10 10 OCF 66 84 67 86 / 0 20 10 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST Monday for FLZ124-125-133- 138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EST Monday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ450-470.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 2 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ452-454.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ472-474.


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