textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Continue into the Weekend.

- Elevated Fire Danger Today Across Inland Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley Due to the Combination of Low Humidity and Breezy Winds.

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues Nearly Area-Wide

- Dense Smoke Advisory through 12 PM in Clinch & Echols Counties. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality Monitor Using airnow.gov

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible This Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

- Dense Smoke Expected Near Large Wildfires

- Monitor AirNow.gov for current air quality index levels.

Persistent onshore flow will result in a modest increase in low level moisture, mainly across coastal areas and the I 95 corridor. Afternoon highs will reach the lower to mid 80s.

The Atlantic sea breeze will move inland this afternoon and is expected to merge with the Gulf coast sea breeze near the I-75 corridor during the early to mid evening hours. This interaction could produce an isolated brief shower or virga, but confidence remains too low to include POPs at this time. Elevated fire weather conditions will persist through early evening across inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, where minimum relative humidity values are expected to fall into the low to upper 20 percent range.

Tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s along the coast. Light southerly winds will become calm overnight as a surface ridge remains over the region, with the upper level ridge axis positioned to the west. Patchy smoke from wildfires in Clinch and Brantley counties may reduce visibilities overnight into early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances this period, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours

High pressure will be centered to the southeast, with the ridge extending overhead Friday through Friday night. This ridge will weaken Saturday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms Saturday afternoon due to a combination of convergence associated with he front, and an upper wave moving east into area.

The cold front will move into the area Saturday night, and stall. Upper energy will run along the stalled boundary keeping precipitation chances going into Saturday night.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily thunderstorm chances this period

The frontal boundary will remain stalled across the area Sunday into Monday, as upper waves continue to move along it. These features will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Sunday into Monday.

The frontal boundary will lift to the north of the area Tuesday, but unsettled weather will continue as upper energy continues to move through.

Another cold front will move into the area on Wednesday and stall, keeping the chance for showers and storms in the forecast.

Temperatures will continue above normal.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southeasterly winds at 8 to 12 knots this afternoon will produce occasional gusts near 20 knots at terminals east of Highway 301. Winds will diminish this evening, becoming light southeasterly and then calm overnight. Depending on wildfire activity, smoke may result in intermittent visibility restrictions below 4 statute miles during the early morning hours. VFR conditions are expected to continue Friday morning, with light southwesterly flow developing ahead of the afternoon sea breeze.

MARINE

High pressure along the southeastern seaboard will gradually weaken and shift southeastward through Friday night. Southeasterly winds will increase across the nearshore waters each afternoon through Saturday as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. Winds will shift to southerly during the evening hours and become southwesterly overnight.

A frontal boundary will approach the southeastern states by Saturday evening, bringing a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. This boundary is expected to stall near the Georgia waters Saturday night into Sunday, resulting in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will lift northward early next week ahead of another system expected to approach the local waters by the middle of next week.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through Friday due to daily increases in southeasterly winds and surf heights of 2 to 4 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions this afternoon, Saturday, Tuesday And Thursday - Patchy High Dispersions Friday, Sunday, Monday, And Wednesday - Minrh Levels Below 30 Percent Inland Se Ga Friday

High pressure ridging will prevail across the area through Friday night. A frontal boundary and upper disturbance will affect the region over the weekend, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will build Tuesday. Another frontal boundary will affect the region beginning the middle of next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Smoke from area fires may cause visibility restrictions. Patchy fog is expected to develop over inland NE FL Friday night. Thunderstorm potential will exist from Saturday through next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 56 87 60 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 79 64 80 65 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 84 58 86 60 / 0 0 10 0 SGJ 79 61 82 63 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 86 57 87 58 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 85 58 86 60 / 10 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Dense Smoke Advisory until noon EDT Friday for GAZ162-163. MARINE...None.