textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Light Freeze Conditions are expected tonight for inland areas; Areas that do not freeze should anticipate extensive Frost coverage

- Marginal Fire Danger this Afternoon due to Low Humidity; Severe to Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Region-Wide

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches on Wednesday & Thursday

- Beneficial Rainfall and Isolated T-Storms Thursday Afternoon through Saturday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

WEATHER CONCERNS THIS PERIOD: - Light Freeze Conditions are expected tonight for inland areas; Areas that do not freeze should anticipate extensive Frost coverage

Modified arctic high pressure beginning to influence the region with light winds (decompressed gradients) and clear skies. Dew points are still quite low resulting in low relative humidity this afternoon and marginal fire danger concern given the lack of wind. Light wind, trending calm, and clear skies will yield a cold night with areas of subfreezing conditions across portions of NE FL and SE GA while most areas will see widespread frost by daybreak Wednesday. Generally, lows are expected to read in the lower 30s inland and toward the mid 30s for immediate coastal communities.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Warming Trend Begins on Wednesday & Thursday

Area-wide showers and storms will develop across the area Friday and into Saturday ahead of the advancing cold front pressing down from out of the north. Lingering showers will have largely become dispersed and moves offshore by the end of the weekend as dry weather associated with high pressure settles over the region following the frontal passage. Clearing skies and predominantly dry weather will carry over into the beginning of next week. Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend and into next week.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights During the Long Term Period: - Beneficial Showers and Possibly a Few Storms Late in the Week through the Upcoming Weekend

Initially dry conditions will be in placed on Wednesday as high pressure gradually shifts eastward. A moist prevailing southwesterly flow will build in over southeast Georgia by Thursday, forming between high pressure ridging to the south and a gradually advancing frontal boundary to the north, with showers with a potential for embedded thunderstorms forming over inland portions of southeast Georgia late Thursday with conditions becoming more widespread overnight and into early Friday. Temperatures will trend warmer after midweek with daily high temps reaching into the upper 70s by Thursday with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 50s by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions with light sea breeze for terminal airports near the beaches. Otherwise, west-northwesterly to westerly winds around 5- 10 kts are expected through this evening while high cirrus pushes in from the north. While fog is not expected, shallow ground fog may develop toward sunrise Wednesday. As shallow moisture lifts Wednesday morning, a flat cumulus deck around 2.5-3 kft should develop but we're not anticipating ceilings at this time. Breezy southwesterly winds expected Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE

Modified high press to the west will push across this evening with a ridge axis remain to the south through Thursday night leading to persistent offshore winds as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The slowing front will bring showers and embedded thunderstorms across the waters early Friday morning. Lingering showers and areas of rain are likely to linger through Saturday as a weak area of low pressure slides along the stalling front. Drier conditions are expected with winds turning onshore Sunday as high pressure builds to the northeast.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds through mid-afternoon and diminishing surf heights should yield a low risk at area beaches today. A developing northeasterly ocean swell on Wednesday should increase the threat to lower-end moderate at all area beaches, with this swell expected to persist into Thursday before diminishing later this week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Critical Humidity Today - Areas Of High Dispersions Wednesday And Thursday

Critically low relative humidity values continue through today, however lower wind speeds will keep conditions below Red Flag Warning or Elevated Fire Danger criteria. Prolonged southwest winds will begin to bring in more moisture Wednesday, improving minimum relative humidity values through the weekend. Winds will be breezy in the afternoons, creating areas of high daytime dispersion Wednesday and Thursday. An approaching cold front will bring showers and storms Thursday through Saturday, with winds shifting to northeasterly Saturday behind the front.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog developments are not expected. Frost developments are expected to develop overnight and through into Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms are the forecast for Thursday night through Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 54 32 70 52 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 55 39 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 33 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 56 36 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 58 31 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 59 30 71 44 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-038- 120-132-138-220-333-433-533-633. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ023-024- 030-031-035-136-137-140-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425- 522. GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136- 149-154-162-166. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ151>153- 163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None.