textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents today at Northeast Florida Beaches. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Southeast Georgia Beaches

- Critical Wildfire Weather Conditions this Afternoon for portions of NE FL. Elevated Fire Danger Elsewhere

- Patchy inland fog Tonight, locally dense fog near I75

- Isolated Thunderstorm Chances Monday Night Through Wednesday

- Increased Marine Hazards Tuesday to Wednesday, including Small Craft Advisory

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy fog inland Tonight, localized dense fog possible near I75

The region will be between a ridge of high pressure stretching from the central Gulf across southern FL, and a broad trough to the north this period.

The flow will prevail from the southwest through the night. This flow will again bring moisture inland from the Gulf. The greatest potential for fog will be near the I75 corridor closer to the ridge axis. With a stronger flow, due to the trough Tonight, expect most of the moisture to result in a low stratus layer overnight, vs fog.

Lows in the middle to upper 50s will be common.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Near Record High Temperatures Monday - Gusty coastal conditions & High Risk of Rip Currents Tuesday - Low-End chance for Isolated Thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening

The front will still be to the north and slowing as it approaches Monday, keeping offshore flow in place through the day allowing temperatures to push up into the 80s once again. Initially clear skies Monday night will allow temps to cool from near record highs during the afternoon; readings are expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s for the lows.

The "backdoor" front is still expected to push down the coast Monday night and through the morning Tuesday. A surge of northeasterly winds will wedge down the coast through the day with fairly gusty conditions expected at the beaches with gusts up to 35 mph and 25 mph inland Tuesday. This front will spread stratocumulus cloud deck from the northeast to southwest through the early morning and afternoon, resulting in a fairly large gradient in high temperatures from the upper 50s in portions of SE GA to the mid 80s toward north- central FL. Widely scattered showers along the edge of the front are also possible but the potential for thunderstorms is fairly low.

Cooler air aloft and a quick-moving upper level shortwave should encourage elevated showers, embedded withing the stratocumulus deck, through the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. Forecast soundings don't appear to be overly aggressive with elevated instability, so have kept thunderstorm mentions at a "slight chance" or "isolated". Elevated convection may continue overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the shortwave dives southeastward through the region. Cloud cover will keep temperatures a bit warmer Tuesday night with lows generally in the 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Nightly Fog Potential Wednesday and Thursday

A short lived coastal trough will form by Wednesday night as the shortwave exits to the south and east. Convergence along the trough will produce scattered showers and iso thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters. After midweek, the ridge axis will build in over the region resulting in drier weather conditions and clearing skies for the latter part of the week. Guidance is honing in on the next backdoor front which appears to reach the area Friday night and Saturday, bringing another surge of gusty northeasterly winds. Otherwise, a warming trend will commence Wednesday through the the end of the week with temps up into the lower 90s by Friday. Potential for late night and early morning both Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon and evening. An area of low stratus is expected to develop near the Gulf overnight, and advect northeast through the night. This stratus is expected to result in restrictions. There is a potential for fog inland, but the chance for dense fog is not as great as this morning.

MARINE

High pressure ridge will sink to the south through Tonight. A cold front will sink south across the area Monday through Monday night. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will be expected with the front. A surge of winds will move down the coastal waters following the front with Small Craft level criteria expected. An inverted trough is forecast to develop over the coastal waters Tuesday, and linger through Thursday. a broad ridge of high pressure will build overhead Friday.

Rip Currents: Nearshore buoy wave heights have dropped only slightly from yesterday with prominent east swells with periods of 10-11 seconds, and based on latest NWPS guidance, still looks like some support for a high risk for northeast FL beaches with surf to about 3-4 ft at times. Despite offshore flow on Monday, solid moderate risk likely, if not a high risk for parts of the northeast FL beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Elevated Fire Danger Elsewhere Today - High Daytime Dispersions Continue Through Tuesday

A very dry and abnormally warm airmass will combine with breezy westerly winds this afternoon bringing Red Flag Conditions to portions of NE FL, mainly between the I-75 and I-95 corridors. The lowest humidity will be between 1600-1800 this afternoon. Elsewhere, elevated fire danger remains this afternoon and early evening. West to southwesterly winds and near record temperatures persist again Monday ahead of an approaching front but afternoon humidity isn't expected to fall below critical levels. The front will bring chances for showers, gusty northeasterly winds, and cooler temperatures on Tuesday but the system isn't very "wet" and rainfall accumulations are generally expected to be under 1/2 an inch through Wednesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog moving in from the Big Bend will again push across northeast and north-central Florida tonight. Less fog potential with the frontal passage. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions continue and likely worsen due to lack rain and above normal warmth.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Today and Monday:

March 22: KJAX: 90/1935 KAMG: 88/2011 KCRG: 87/2011

March 23: KJAX: 91/1935 KAMG: 86/2012 KCRG: 87/2012

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 58 86 57 65 / 0 0 20 20 SSI 60 82 59 63 / 0 0 30 40 JAX 57 89 60 66 / 0 0 10 40 SGJ 57 86 61 70 / 0 0 10 50 GNV 54 86 57 74 / 0 0 0 40 OCF 54 84 58 79 / 0 0 0 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ023-024- 030-031-038-120-132-136-137-140-225-232-237-240-322-325- 422-425-633. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333-433. GA...None. MARINE...None.