textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Possible this Morning, mainly inland areas west of I-95. Visibilities around mile or less are possible

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms today

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches through Saturday. High Risk Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches on Sunday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this Afternoon and Evening

- Locally Dense Fog Possible this morning, more dense over inland areas

Scattered showers with a potential of thunderstorms are expected to build across the forecast area this afternoon and into this evening, ahead of the frontal boundary pressing in from out of the northwest today, with initially southwesterly winds and humid conditions shifting to become more out of the northwest with drier air advecting into the region during the evening and overnight hours following the frontal passage. High temperatures for the end of the week will rise into the lower to mid 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the will drop down into the mid to upper 50s for southeast Georgia and in the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s for northeast Florida.

Early morning patchy fog with more dense areas of fog for inland southeast Georgia and areas of northeast Florida near and west of the I-75 corridor, are expected to lift by around midmorning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected this Weekend.

- Elevated surf and high risk of rip currents this weekend.

Cooler and drier conditions are expected this weekend. Northwesterly winds will shift northeasterly and become breezy through Sunday as a ridge axis extends into the Atlantic off the Carolina coast. The brief wind surge will likely increase rip current risk at the coast and may initiate a few showers over the nearshore Atlantic waters as a coastal trough develops by Sunday night. Outside of the rogue coastal showers Sunday evening, conditions will be dry with below normal temperatures.

Daytime Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday will cool into the lower 70s through Sunday. Overnight Lows in the lower 50s across the area on Saturday will dip to the mid 40s Sunday night for SE GA and to the lower 50s across NE FL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier and cooler with a return of showers for NE FL Wednesday night and Thursday.

Cooler conditions to start the week will gradually rebound through the middle of the week. Dry conditions are generally expected through Tuesday before a southern stream wave pushes eastward across the Gulf and then across Florida Wednesday night, which will bring the next best period of rain. During the back half of the week, a stronger northern stream upper trough will quickly dig toward deep south on Thursday. The associated surface cold front will push another round of colder and drier air into the region once again with lows possible in the 40s once again by next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Fog and low stratus ceilings are expected to overspread our region overnight, with LIFR conditions developing at VQQ and towards GNV by around 07z to 09z. IFR conditions will develop towards or after 10Z at JAX, CRG, SSI and SGJ, with periods of LIFR conditions possible through around 13Z. Ceilings should lift and visibilities will gradually improve from 13Z-15Z, with VFR conditions prevailing before 16Z Friday. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms may impact the regional terminals after 18Z, with confidence too low to predict anything other than vicinity showers at this time. Southeasterly surface winds sustained around 5 knots early this evening will diminish overnight, with southwesterly surface winds developing towards 13Z. Speeds will increase to 5-10 knots towards 16Z, with the Atlantic sea breeze shifting winds to east- southeasterly at SGJ and southerly at SSI after 18Z Friday.

MARINE

An advancing cold front will press into the southeastern states over the course of today and tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact the waters this afternoon and evening ahead of the approaching front, which will cross our local waters before sunrise on Saturday. Winds will shift to northwest with increasing speeds after midnight tonight, followed by winds shifting to north and then northeast in the wake of this frontal passage on Saturday afternoon and evening. High pressure will gradually build into the southeastern states Sunday through early Monday, creating breezy northeast winds and gradually building seas across our local waters. Winds will weaken by Monday afternoon into Tuesday as high pressure settles over the area.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Breakers around 2-4 feet and a moderate onshore swell will lead to a Moderate risk of Rip Currents today amid the light offshore flow. A brief northeasterly breeze will surge down the coast this weekend and likely elevate surf heights and introduce a high risk of rip currents.

FIRE WEATHER

A slow-moving cold front will push through SE GA this afternoon and NE FL this evening, bringing drier and cooler air in behind it. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along the frontal edge, particularly during the afternoon hours north of I-10. Light northerly winds behind the front will gradually shift northeasterly through the weekend and become breezy especially along the coast. Fair dispersions are likely through the weekend. The drier air will lower daytime humidity near critical for portions of SE GA north of US 82 early next week. Otherwise, humidity will trend drier but not reach critically low levels.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas to widespread fog will be possible through around 10 AM this morning. Fog is not expected to develop over the weekend.

CLIMATE

We are near record highs at GNV, CRG, and JAX today, generally within about 2-3 degrees of the record. New records / ties are possible.

Record High Temperatures:

November 6: KJAX: 88/2018 KCRG: 87/2018

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 81 54 75 50 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 82 58 74 59 / 30 10 0 0 JAX 85 59 78 55 / 20 20 0 0 SGJ 84 63 76 62 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 85 61 79 54 / 10 10 0 0 OCF 85 64 80 55 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for FLZ038-137. GA...None. MARINE...None.