textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hot & Humid Weather Continues. Heat Advisories for Monday and possible again Tuesday for Portions of Our Area. Heat Indices up to 110 Possible

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

- Scattered TStorms on Monday. Strong Storms, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Locally Heavy Downpours Possible.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Tues & Wed

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Heat Advisory Today for NE FL/most of SE GA, Heat Indices 107-111F

- Lower rainfall chances, but isolated strong/severe storms possible

Weak shortwave aloft will push southward through the region early this morning and will allow for slightly drier air mass to filter in aloft with PWATs falling into the 1.6-1.8 inch range by this afternoon. This feature will allow for some isolated showers and storms this morning, but overall expect mostly dry conditions with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny this afternoon and will allow for Max temps into the mid/upper 90s over inland areas, while East coast sea breeze developing and pushing inland to the I-95 corridor will hold Atlantic Coastal locations with highs in the lower to middle 90s. These temps combined with the humid air mass will push Heat Indices into the 107-111F range across all of NE FL and most of SE GA to the south/east of Waycross and have posted Heat Advisory from 11am-8pm, while areas across inland SE GA to the north/west of Waycross will peak out with Heat Indices around 105F. The slightly drier air mass aloft will lessen rainfall chances late this afternoon and evening, but still expect widely scattered storms across SE GA with Pops (20-40%), while lingering moisture across NE FL with still support scattered storms with PoPs (30-60%) as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland and will trigger convection, mainly late in the day from the 5pm-9pm time frame which should support Heat Advisory headlines due the late nature of convection. Strong to isolated severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph still possible in the activity as movement will be from the NW to SE at 15- 20 mph and some Hi-Res models are supporting a low chance of an MCS type feature across Central GA, pushing into SE GA during the evening hours which could provide the support for a more concentrated wind threat there due to the lingering extreme heating at the surface. Any evening convective threat from storms should end by midnight with the usual fair skies and humid conditions expected with lows in the 70s inland and near 80F along the Atlantic Coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Below average thunderstorm coverage Tuesday, and above average Wednesday. Potential for strong to severe storms, especially Wednesday

- Heat Advisories will likely be needed Tuesday and Wednesday

A cold front will move south toward the area Tuesday, then into SE GA Tuesday night, where it will stall through Wednesday night.

Some drier air will move into area ahead of the boundary Tuesday, helping to limit convective potential.

Better moisture will return on Wednesday. The combination of better moisture, and convergence along surface boundary will yield above average chances for convection, especially across SE GA. With the front in the area, convection could extend into the overnight Wednesday night.

Highs on Tuesday, away from the immediate coast will approach 100, with heat advisories likely becoming necessary. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Wednesday due to convective coverage, but still may need another heat advisory.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

_ Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which may become strong to severe

Frontal boundary will stalled across SE GA through Friday, then lift just north of the area on Saturday and Sunday. Due to ample moisture, and frontal convergence, above average precipitation chances are forecast throughout this period.

Temperatures will trend above normal through Friday, then near to a bit below over the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Lower rainfall chances expected today with mostly inland TAF sites impacted with East Coast sea breeze pushing slightly farther inland and will continue PROB30 at JAX/VQQ/GNV, mainly in the 21-01Z time frame, while likely just need only VCTS at SSI/SGJ/CRG through the evening hours. Mostly VFR conds are expected with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in any convection that develops near terminals later today.

MARINE

A nearly stationary frontal boundary just north of the local waters will dissipate early this week. Another front will approach from the north during the middle of the week with offshore southwest winds increasing to near advisory levels from Wednesday through Friday. This will bring a return to a stormy weather pattern to the local waters late in the week and into next weekend.

Rip Currents: A low end moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Tuesday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA beaches due to an afternoon sea breeze and surf/breakers of 1-2 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

-Heat Indices in the advisory range for much of the area Today through Wednesday.

-Patchy high daytime dispersions this week.

A frontal boundary will be located just to the north of the area early this week, then lay across southeast Georgia mid week. The boundary is expected to lift back to the north next weekend. The first half of this week will have temperatures running above normal. Daily chances for thunderstorms will increase through the week.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Heat Advisories may be needed Monday through Wednesday afternoons. Daily thunderstorm chances this week, with greatest chances beginning mid week. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near storms.

CLIMATE

Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites for early this week:

July 28: KJAX: 104/1872 KGNV: 100/2025 KAMG: 100/2006 KCRG: 100/2025

July 29: KJAX: 101/2025 KGNV: 100/2025 KAMG: 99/2025 KCRG: 101/2016

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 97 75 99 79 / 20 20 0 0 SSI 94 79 98 82 / 10 20 0 0 JAX 96 77 99 81 / 30 20 10 0 SGJ 94 77 97 79 / 20 10 10 0 GNV 96 77 97 80 / 40 20 20 0 OCF 95 77 95 80 / 60 20 20 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None.