textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Dense Fog this morning NE FL south of I10

- Small Craft Advisory through Monday Morning

- Freeze Warning interior SE GA Tonight

- Freeze forecast for interior SE GA Monday night with Frost

- Widespread Freeze Thursday night. A few slick spots on elevated roads, bridges, overpasses possible Friday morning at sheltered, inland locations

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Pre-frontal showers and areas of dense fog will move across the local area through this morning ahead of a cold front, trailed by drier, cooler and breezy northwest winds and clearing skies into the afternoon. Dense fog will continue to develop and move eastward early this morning across northeast Florida, and will monitor visibility trends to see if a dense fog advisory may be needed. For now, will continue to message fog with Special Weather Statements as the fog will be transient in nature.

Daytime highs will not follow a typical diurnal curve across parts of southeast GA due to timing of the cold front this morning. Locations generally NW of Waycross will realize highs early this morning in the 60s, then temperatures cool into the afternoon into the 50s. Highs will range in the 60s for most of NE FL. Breezy post- frontal winds will near 15-20 mph this afternoon with gusts 25-30 mph through early evening.

Tonight, too much wind for fog or frost concerns as temperatures fall to freezing across much of inland southeast GA where the freeze watch was upgraded to a freeze warning. The Suwannee River Valley will reach the mid 30s with low 40s toward the northeast Florida Atlantic coast. Wind chills will reach the upper 20s across southeast GA and the Suwannee River Valley to the mid/upper 30s toward the FL Atlantic coast by daybreak Sunday under gusty NNE winds (above local Cold Weather Advisory thresholds).

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure will build to the northwest through the day on Monday. This high will build overhead Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Dry weather will prevail this period. Below normal temperatures will prevail Monday and Monday night, with near normal levels Tuesday into Tuesday night. With the ridge settling nearly overhead Monday night, winds will become fairly light. An inland Freeze, generally north of I10 is expected Monday night, with frost likely. The greatest chance for frost Monday night will be across SE GA, and over the I10 corridor and Suwannee valley of NE FL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

-Possible Slick Roads Thursday night

A wave of low pressure will lift northeast across central FL Wednesday into Thursday, bringing scattered showers. Near seasonal temperatures are expected Wednesday into Wednesday night, then below normal for Thursday. HIgh pressure will build behind the wave Thursday night, with sharp cold advection occurring through the night. A fairly widespread freeze is forecast for inland Thursday night. Winds should decrease enough through the night for a significant Frost event across area also.

At this time it looks like the precipitation shield moves off before cooler air gets in, so not concerned about mixed precipitation on back side of system.

However, given how fast the cold air will advect in behind the wave, any rain that falls on area roadways and does not quickly dry could Flash Freeze during the night, leading to some slick conditions. This potential will need to be monitored over the coming days.

The high will settle overhead Friday, then more become centered more toward the northeast Friday night, before moving further away Saturday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. With flow coming more from the southwest ahead of the front Saturday temperatures should recover to near to above average.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Restrictions this morning as stratus and fog impact the terminals under WSW winds ahead of a cold front. TEMPO group for all terminals this morning as front passes across with a period of SHRA possible, gusty winds and IFR restrictions. VFR develops into the afternoon with gusty post-frontal NW winds sustained 10-15 kts and gusts near 25 kts through early evening. Winds subside after 22-23z inland and remain gusty at coastal terminals overnight as winds transition to NNE under continued VFR conditions.

MARINE

A cold front will move across the waters today with passing scattered showers through early afternoon. Northwest winds increase by midday to Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds transition to north to northeast tonight with occasional gusts near gale force as high pressure builds northwest of the local waters. Gusty easterly winds decrease below advisory levels Monday afternoon into Tuesday as the high settles across the region and a coastal trough over the local waters gradually weakens. Westerly winds increase late Wednesday as the next front approaches. This front is expected to move south of the local waters by early Thursday with a return of Small Craft conditions and potential gusts near gale force.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low risk today, Moderate Monday NE FL Low risk today, High Monday

FIRE WEATHER

-MinRH values at or below 30 percent portions of inland SE GA Today through Tuesday -Areas of high dispersions Today -Areas of low dispersions Tuesday

A cold front will move southeast across the area Tonight into Sunday morning, bringing chance for showers. High pressure will then build for the early part of the week, with cooler and drier air advecting into region. A wave of low pressure will move northeast across central FL mid week bringing another chance for showers. High pressure will build again for the end of the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog this morning south of I10. Freezing temperatures inland Tonight and Monday night, and again Thursday night and Friday night.

CLIMATE

Below are new record daily highs set yesterday, Jan 10th.

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 83 (old 82 set in 1957) Craig Airfield, FL (CRG) 82 (old 79 set in 2014) Alma, GA (AMG) 82 (old record 80 set in 1949)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 60 29 52 28 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 63 36 53 40 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 65 35 57 37 / 30 0 0 0 SGJ 67 44 60 47 / 20 0 0 0 GNV 65 37 62 40 / 30 0 0 0 OCF 68 38 63 42 / 30 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149- 151-152-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ470-472-474.