textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Cold Weather Outbreak Tonight through Tuesday Morning. Extreme Cold Warning Tonight Into Late Sunday Morning Wind Chills 5-10F. Hard Freeze Tonight & Sunday Night. Inland Freeze Monday Night with Frost

- Gale Warning frequent Gusts to 45 knots. Lower than normal low tides tonight with strong offshore winds

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Today: Intensifying low pressure system just off the Carolinas will continue the extreme arctic cold across all of NE FL/SE GA this morning and while the land based snowfall threat has ended, there still be some mixed rain/snow showers over the offshore Atlantic coastal waters this morning. Gusty NW winds at 20-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph this morning will combine with temps in the upper teens and 20s to produce wind chill values in the single digits and will keep the Extreme Cold Warning/Freeze Warning in place through the morning hours. Wind gusts over 40 mph should end by sunrise and will likely be able to end the Wind Advisory around that time frame. Despite the sunny skies today still expect record cold Max Temps that will only peak in the upper 30s/near 40F across SE GA and lower 40s across NE FL.

Tonight: As high pressure ridge builds into the region from the West the Northwest winds will slowly diminish to 5-10 mph by the overnight hours under mostly clear skies, will set the stage for record cold low temps in the upper teens/lower 20s and hard freeze conditions over inland areas and middle 20s all the way to the Atlantic coast and Freeze Warnings have been posted for all of NE FL/SE GA locations. Despite the lighter winds still expect wind chill values to fall into the teens by the early morning hours and have posted a Cold Weather Advisory for all NE FL/SE GA locations as well. A few spots across NE FL may reach Extreme Cold Warning criteria below 15F, but for now have kept Cold Weather Advisory in place. The lighter winds and slight increase in dew points back into the teens will allow for more widespread frost formation by sunrise Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Quiet but cool conditions will be expected for the short term period as high pressure west of the region Monday Morning slowly moves directly over the Florida Peninsula by Tuesday Morning, followed by east of the area by Wednesday Morning. Temps will rebound slightly into the 50s Monday under mostly sunny skies, and despite more higher clouds filling into the area Tuesday, temps will rebound even further into the 60s as a light southwesterly flow develops. Low temperatures will moderate accordingly as well, though Monday Night will still be a cold one with widespread 20s and low 30s expected and at least a light freeze for the vast majority of the region as radiational cooling conditions will be mostly prime except for some higher clouds. Lows on Tuesday Night will be a bit milder, mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s. Tuesday Night's low temps will also be a bit trickier as clouds thicken from our northwest ahead of our next frontal boundary, and therefore some areas of northeast FL may see lower min temps than those out in interior GA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The next cold front will approach the region Wednesday, likely moving through the region Wednesday Night and into the first half of Thursday. Of course there will be many details to be ironed out including timing of the front, though it does look like there will be enough moisture ahead of the boundary to bring much needed rain chances for the vast majority of the area and perhaps a few thunderstorms as well. Cool high pressure will build back into the region behind the front for Thursday and into Friday, though not nearly as cold of an airmass as what is currently being felt across the CWA. Conditions then look to stay dry and cool heading into next weekend, with a secondary dry front likely to move through the area around Friday Night or Saturday. Temps therefore look to only average near normal on Wednesday before dropping below normal for the rest of the long term period.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

VFR conds with mainly SKC through the period. Gusty NW winds will be the main impact early in the period with 15-20 knots sustained with gusts to 25-30 knots through 15Z, before NW winds diminish to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots through sunset, then settling down to around 5 knots inland and around 10 knots at the coastal TAF sites in the 00-06Z time frame.

MARINE

Strong low pressure will slowly pull away to the northeast Today with Gale conditions expected across all local waters. A chance of showers and even a few snow showers across local waters this morning. Occasional gusts near 45 knots this morning. With the strong offshore flow today, a period of low water levels is likely around low tide. Winds and seas begin to subside this evening into Monday to Small Craft Advisory conditions as high pressure builds across the Gulf Coast states. The high builds over the Florida peninsula Tuesday with seas falling below Advisory levels. The next cold front approaches from the west Wednesday.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk today in the strong offshore flow continues and combined seas increase. Moderate to possible high risk on Monday into Tuesday as some northeast swells affect the area.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Rh Values Area Wide Sunday And Monday - Areas Of High Dispersions On Monday

Windy conditions will subside slightly today, though still remain breezy through most of the day as high pressure builds into the area behind a departing low pressure system. Very cool and dry conditions will be expected through Monday, including widespread minRH values under 30%. Despite the breezy and mostly sunny conditions today, dispersions will be in the good range due to less efficient mixing. Monday, these values will go up slightly under better conditions for mixing, and some areas of high dispersion will be expected. Temperatures and RH moderate by Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure slowly moves overhead and east of the region before another cold front looks to move through around Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Very cold wind chills will be expected through this morning and again Tonight/early Monday Morning. Hard freeze conditions are expected each night through at least Monday Night area wide.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

The combined impact of already seasonably low astronomical tides and stronger WNW offshore winds tonight could create low mean lower low water levels at coastal locations.

CLIMATE

Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980

Record Low Temperatures:

Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977

Monday, February 2:

JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 40 20 52 26 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 40 26 52 34 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 42 22 54 27 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 42 25 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 43 21 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 44 20 55 26 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220- 225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522- 533-633. Freeze Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for FLZ023-024-030- 031-038-124-125-132-136>138-140-225-232-233-236-237-240- 325-333-340-425-433-533-633. GA...Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264- 350-364. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GAZ153-154-165- 166. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST Monday for AMZ470-472-474.