textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River

- Inland Late Night & Morning Fog This Morning & Thursday Morning

- Local NorEaster Conditions Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Periods of Locally Heavy Rainfall at Coast Possible. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Early morning fog developments over portions of southeast Georgia and inland northeast Florida

Pattern for dry weather will continue through today and tonight, with early morning fog developments over southeast Georgia and northeast Florida expected to lift by midmorning. Prevailing flow will shift about to become more out of the east and southeast over the course of the day, ahead of a cold front advancing towards the forecast area from out of the northwest, with the onshore flow bringing in partly cloudy conditions over northeast Florida in the afternoon. High temperatures for today will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s for inland areas, and in the mid 80s along the shoreline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 60s for inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower 70s for areas along the coast and near the St Johns River.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: Thursday through Friday night

- Potential for a few strong storms over north central FL Friday afternoon

Surface high pressure ridge will remain overhead through Thursday night. This high will weaken and move east Friday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move southeast across the area from late Friday through Friday night. Increasing moisture will pool into north central FL Friday afternoon ahead of the front, which will produce potential for showers and thunderstorms.

A surge of winds will move down the coast following the frontal passage, as strong high pressure builds to the northwest.

Temperatures will be above average this period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: Saturday through Wednesday

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Saturday through Tuesday

Strong high pressure will build to the northwest Saturday, then more toward the north Saturday night, and northeast Sunday. Inverted troughing is expected to develop in the onshore flow pattern which will act to enhance the onshore flow. Convergence associated with the coastal troughing will also create the potential for showers near the coast.

High pressure will gradually weaken through mid week, with continued onshore flow. Winds will remain elevated, but gradually decrease later this period.

High temperatures will trend below average this period, but the onshore flow will keep reading above average during the nights.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

High pressure over the area and calm winds coupled with drier air aloft will support MVFR/IFR/LIFR visibility and low stratus will continue at times through 13Z at all sites except SGJ with tempo VLIFR restrictions at VQQ through 13Z. Fog should lift and dissipate by 14Z. Northeasterly light winds around 5-10 kts then develop today as high pressure begins to shift more to the east northeast.

MARINE

A high pressure system over the southeast states will slowly move east, and push well offshore by Thursday night and Friday. A strong cold front will cross the local waters late Friday night through Saturday morning, followed by building high pressure well to the north. Lighter winds and seas will continue through at least Thursday. Deteriorating marine conditions expected Friday night and into the weekend as a surge of northeasterly winds develop across the waters. Small Craft Advisories are anticipated with the potential for Gale conditions this weekend into early next week.

Rip Currents: Breezy offshore winds will keep the risk low at all area beaches today. Developing northeasterly winds will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches from Tuesday through Thursday, while low surf heights keep the risk generally low at the southeast GA beaches. Rough surf and a high rip current risk develops this weekend as strong northeasterly winds develop.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy Low Dispersions Today - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday

High pressure will prevail across the area through Friday. A cold front will move southeast across the area late Friday through Friday night. High pressure will build to the northwest then north and northeast over the weekend and continuing into early next week. A surge of gusty winds will move down the coast Friday night, and continue into early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is expected during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required the next few mornings. Thunderstorm potential north central FL Friday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 88 63 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 82 70 83 70 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 86 66 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 84 71 84 70 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 87 66 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 87 67 88 70 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.