textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today. This Morning: Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Midday & Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards: Gusty 40-60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes

- Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today

- Small Craft Advisory for Most of the Atlantic Waters

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA Wed & Thu Mornings

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Warm frontal frontal boundary continues to lift northward early this morning, as stratiform rain continues over interior GA with just a few spotty light showers over northeast FL. Still expecting a "dry slot" of sorts in the warm sector to keep northeast FL/I-10 southward dry for most of the morning hours as periods of rain likely continue across much of southeast GA but especially north and west of Waycross. A few isolated embedded T'storms are still possible through the early morning hours as a weak low forms and moves northeast. Lows will be in the 50s along and north of I-10 and in the low 60s along the NE FL coast and north central FL.

After sunrise, a cold front will move eastward through the FL big bend as a surface low moves north and east of the area. Along with continued stratiform rainfall, Isolated T'storms, mainly elevated, will become more possible as instability ticks up ahead of the front with flow turning quickly towards the south to southwest off the Gulf ahead of the front. However, mostly cloudy skies and poor lapse rates will be the heavily limiting factors on isolated strong to severe development despite helicity values over 200 m2/s2 and a developing low level jet in the 40-45 range. For any t'storms that are able to develop in the weak instability, a brief tornado will be possible along with gusty winds of 40-60 mph. This potential will decrease closer to the NE FL coast. Heavier showers and isolated t'storms are expected to move off the first coast by mid afternoon as the front progresses southeastward, as skies start to clear from northwest to southeast. Southwesterly winds pick up into the 15-20 mph range with gusts up to around 25-30 mph late morning into early afternoon, turning westerly by late afternoon and eventually northwesterly during the evening hours and subsiding after sunset as the front passes. Overall expected rainfall amounts will highest NW of about US84 between 0.50-0.75 inches with localized 2 inch, dropping off to around a quarter of an inch or less into coastal NE FL. Highs will vary north to south given the frontal timing and coverage of rain/t'storms, with upper 60s expected along the Altamaha river basin to the upper 70s to even the low 80s over NE FL and southern St Johns river basin.

Cool and dry advection continues tonight though some mid/high clouds will linger throughout the night. Lows will range from the upper 30s over interior GA, low to mid 40s near I-10 and the upper Suwanee River Valley, and low to mid 50s closer to the St. Johns River Valley and NE FL coast. Though there will be a bit of a breeze around 5 mph, some patchy frost will be possible over far interior southeast GA late tonight/early Wednesday Morning.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Wednesday will be significantly cooler with partly cloudy skies with high pressure building to the north of region. Temperatures will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in southeast Georgia and the mid to upper 60s across Northeast Florida as cold air advection will continue with a light continental flow with a northwest wind at 4 to 8 mph. Wednesday night will be mostly clear to party cloudy with ridging in place. Lows will be primarily in the upper 30s to low 40s for most inland areas, with patchy frost possible again across Southeast Georgia as winds are near calm with ideal radiational cooling. Coastal areas will have overnight lows in 45 to 50 degree range.

On Thursday, sprawling but weaker high pressure continues to dominate the region with mostly dry and cool conditions. Upper southwesterly flow does transport some moisture in the 700-400 mb layer with some potential sprinkles or light rain northwest of Waycross with some 20-30 percent POPS painted near the Altamaha and Ocmulgee River Basins as the boundary layer moistens. Upstream, low pressure does emerge into the western Gulf of America late in the day. Temperatures on Thursday will rebound slightly (about 2 to 3 degrees), with more a light nwly flow continuing. Thursday night lows will be in the mid to upper 40s across SE GA and Suwannee Valley with low 50s south of I-10 and mid to upper 50s along the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Attention turns to the next weather system, as an the low begins to lift northeastward into the Central and Northeast Gulf on Friday. The cold front associated with this low will track southeast into area Friday night, and may stall through Saturday night, before slowly moving to the south Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will build to the north Monday for .

Heightened chances for showers and thunderstorms will be forecast from Friday through Sunday with much needed rain over the region. Hopefully, beneficial rains will bring relief to some ongoing drought conditions. Some 2 to 4 inch total rain amounts are forecast north of the FL/GA line with some locally higher amounts. The WPC Extended Forecast highlights a marginal risk for excessive rainfall north of I-10 along the stalled or slow moving frontal boundary.

Temperatures will be slightly above normal through Saturday, then slightly below normal Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

IFR ceilings continue across most airfields early this morning, though areas south of Duval (GNV/SGJ) have been more intermittent. A lull in rain activity is occurring for all except SSI where rainfall will continue over the next few hours. This is expected to slowly fill in over the next 3-6 hours or so before spreading into JAX, VQQ, and CRG after mid to late morning from the west. Variable winds will increase out of the south towards sunrise and through the morning/early afternoon hours across the terminals as a cold front approaches, which will also result in a period of low level wind shear before more diurnal mixing occurs. Showers ahead of the cold front will impact the TAF sites from about 15Z-20Z today, which could briefly drop vsbys and ceilings closer to IFR range at times, but otherwise MVFR ceilings will be expected ahead of the front. Southwest winds will increase accordingly at all TAF sites before veering towards the west to southwest later this afternoon and evening. At least MVFR and possibly IFR ceilings are expected to hold across the area tonight through the remainder of the forecast period.

MARINE

A warm front will continue to lift north of area waters through this morning as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf and tracks northeast of the region through tonight. A cold front will move through this afternoon and evening, with chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm through this time frame ahead of cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over portions of the area waters beginning this morning and continuing through tonight. Weak high pressure will settle into the region through Wednesday/Thursday before another frontal system affects the area waters on Friday and Saturday increasing the chances of showers and higher winds once again.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Tuesday NE FL Moderate Tuesday

FIRE WEATHER

A warm front will lift north of the Altamaha around daybreak this early morning. A cold front will move southeast across the area Tuesday. As a result, showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected today. High pressure will build to the northwest Tuesday, and to the north Wednesday into Thursday for drier and cooler conditions. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the week, providing another chance for showers and storms from Friday through the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Significant fog is not expected this morning. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 37 58 36 61 / 0 0 0 30 SSI 45 62 46 64 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 45 66 42 69 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 52 68 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 49 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 52 69 45 74 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472- 474.