textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches Today. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at the Southeast GA Beaches

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms Each Day. Heavy Rainfall Potential Today & Friday for Northeast & North Central FL. Localized Flash Flooding Possible, Especially at Urban Locations. Heavy Downpours Possible Area-Wide on Sunday and Monday Afternoons

- Heat Advisory Conditions Possible on Friday Afternoon. Peak Heat Index Values of 105-110 Possible

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Waves of showers and isolated storms continue to move onshore off the Atlantic, sporadically impacting the TAF sites. Overall, the thunder threat is low, with more likely chances of seeing brief rain showers and MVFR ceilings through this afternoon. Tonight, there will be some patchy fog for inland sites, MVFR ceilings nearly area- wide, and coastal showers in the early morning hours.

MARINE

Onshore east to southeast flow will continue waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms at times through Friday. Prevailing westerly winds are then expected from Saturday through at least Monday morning as a frontal boundary sinks southward towards our region, with this feature maintaining a stormy weather pattern. Stronger high pressure will build down the southeastern seaboard early next week in the wake of this boundary, likely pushing the front over the northeast Florida waters.

Rip Currents: A long period east-southeasterly ocean swell will combine with breezy northeasterly winds to create breakers of 3-4 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches Today. These conditions will yield a high risk of deadly rip currents at the northeast FL beaches and a higher end moderate risk for the southeast GA beaches. The long period swell will gradually fade tonight and should not linger into Friday, with the afternoon sea breeze creating enough of an onshore breeze to yield a lower end moderate risk on Friday at area beaches. Prevailing offshore winds this weekend should result in a low risk, while developing onshore winds on Labor Day likely resulting in at least a moderate risk.

FIRE WEATHER

More clouds than sunshine with periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week as easterly onshore flow pattern persists. This will also keep dispersions generally in the poor to fair range at best as flow aloft will remain weak overall. Isolated strong storms with gusty winds will be possible, in addition to a localized flooding threat with plenty of available moisture. Flow direction starts to shift this weekend as the next frontal boundary approaches from the north and likely stalls over the region by early next week. This will support warmer temperatures and more of a summer-like daily shower and t'storm pattern.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near thunderstorms with briefly localized flooding rainfall. Late night and early morning patchy fog and low stratus will be possible through at least the next several nights, especially in areas that received more rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 92 74 91 73 / 40 0 70 10 SSI 87 78 88 77 / 40 20 40 10 JAX 88 75 90 74 / 40 20 60 10 SGJ 86 76 89 75 / 50 20 50 20 GNV 89 74 91 73 / 70 20 80 20 OCF 89 74 91 74 / 70 30 80 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.