textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Dense Fog Possible Each Morning through Wednesday.

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Tuesday Afternoon.

- Record High Temperatures Possible through Wednesday.

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms on Thursday.

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Thursday Night through Friday Morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Areas of locally dense fog are possible during the predawn hours on Tuesday.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue through at least Tuesday at the northeast FL beaches.

Light southwesterly-southerly winds will be in place Today as high pressure stretches in from the Atlantic. Limited chances of any precipitation will be confined to interior SE GA during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Above normal temperatures will once again be felt Today as daytime highs this afternoon will in the mid to upper 80s, with the warmest temperatures over north central FL. By the Monday night, overnight Lows will hover in the lower 60s area-wide. Patchy to areas of Fog will again be possible over inland locations during the overnight hours, particularly over NE FL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Locally dense early morning fog possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible along the I-95 corridor on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Surface high pressure will be located to the east this period, with ridging extending across forecast area. The ridge will begin to shift to the southeast Wednesday night.

A few thunderstorms will be possible near the coast Tuesday afternoon, due to a combination of sea breeze convergence, and a weak upper waves. The ridging is expected to be stronger on Wednesday, so convection is not forecast.

Fog is expected Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, which may be locally dense.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages this period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms area-wide on Thursday.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions likely on Thursday Night and Friday Morning.

- Slightly cooler temperatures Thursday night through Friday night.

Thursday, a mid to upper level neutrally trough extending from the Great Lakes into the TN valley will pivot east. A Compact shortwave embedded at the base of the trough will move east along the Gulf coast and support a organized line of showers with embedded storms, some of which may be strong to severe. Increasing wind fields will support a veering wind profile and 0-6km bulk shear values 40-45 knots. Cooling temperatures aloft will support some instability, but the amount of low level cloud cover will be an important factor in the strong to severe T'storm potential as the line moves through our area. A wetting rainfall appears likely with expected totals between a quarter inch to one inch from south to north, through heavier showers and T'storms may bring localized higher totals up to 3-4 inches, which may present localized minor flooding concerns over low lying and urban areas. Breezy SW winds will turn NW in the late afternoon as the front passes through. Showers will end as the frontal boundary sinks into north central FL Thursday night with winds staying elevated from the north turning northeasterly by Friday sunrise as high pressure builds quickly across the TN valley east into the southern appalachians.

Friday, a weak wave of low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary as it stalls near central FL. Isolated showers will shift SW to NE over NE FL areas south of I-10 with NE winds becoming east northeasterly as high pressure moves to the Outer Banks of NC.

This weekend, zonal flow aloft in the wake of another mid to upper trough passing well to the north will briefly reinforce surface high pressure over the central/southern appalachians on Saturday morning before shifting east off the Mid Atlantic coast. Winds will be easterly and trend to southeasterly on Sunday as weak lift shifts across the FL peninsula from the Gulf.

Temperatures will begin the period well above normal Thursday, become near to slightly above normal Friday, then rise to above normal this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

LIFR to IFR ceilings of 300-9000 feet will prevail at the regional terminals through around 15Z. VFR conditions should then prevail at the regional terminals by 16Z. Low stratus ceilings developing over Apalachee Bay and the northeast Gulf during the late evening and overnight hours will begin to advect across the Suwannee Valley and north central FL after 06Z. IFR visibilities are likely to begin at VQQ after 05Z, with IFR and possibly LIFR ceilings reaching GNV towards 10Z Tuesday, while conditions at VQQ likely deteriorating to LIFR before 08Z. Confidence in the eastward extent of lower stratus ceilings remains to low to indicate sub-VFR conditions at this time during the predawn hours on Tuesday for SSI, JAX, CRG, and SGJ. Westerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots at the regional terminals will continue through at least 17Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will develop at coastal locations by 17Z, resulting in surface winds shifting to easterly and increasing to around 10 knots at SGJ and SSI before 19Z, with this wind shift then progressing inland across the Duval County terminals after 20Z. Surface winds will shift to southerly around 5 knots early this evening at the coastal terminals, while winds elsewhere diminish.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula, creating a prevailing south to southwesterly wind flow across our local waters through midweek. Periods of dense fog will be possible each morning through midweek.

A stronger cold front will cross our local waters on Thursday, accompanied by showers and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will create Small Craft Advisory conditions on Thursday evening, with these conditions continuing on Thursday night and Friday morning as high pressure briefly builds over the Mid-Atlantic states. Winds will quickly shift to northerly and then northeasterly on Thursday night before becoming easterly with diminishing speeds on Friday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue into midweek as easterly ocean swell of 9-10 seconds continue. Strengthening southerly winds may combine with this swell on Wednesday to create a high risk at the northeast FL beaches, with at least a moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Values Wednesday And Thursday

Drier conditions expected today as weak high pressure settles over the NE Gulf and northern FL as a frontal boundary lifts slowly away to the north with light westerly winds and an afternoon Atlantic seabreeze pinned east of I-95 where winds will turn southeasterly at the coast. Dispersions will be in the good range. Tuesday, high pressure will extend from Bermuda into central FL from Bermuda with southwesterly winds and a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as the Atlantic seabreeze moves onshore towards US-17 with winds becoming southeasterly behind it. Wednesday, winds will be a bit breezier from the south on Wednesday a cold front begin to approach the region from the northwest, but no showers expected. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area Thursday afternoon with potential for isolated strong to severe T'storms. Friday into Saturday, high pressure will build in from the north as the front exits to the south with drier conditions and MIN RH values falling to around 30 percent by Saturday.

Areas of high dispersions are expected Wednesday and Thursday afternoons due to increasing transport winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of locally dense fog will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, especially over south and western areas.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures through Wednesday: March 9: KJAX: 88/2024 KCRG: 83/2012 KGNV: 89/1907 KAMG: 86/1974

March 10: KJAX: 91/1974 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 90/1974 KAMG: 88/1974

March 11: KJAX: 89/1967 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 88/1974 KAMG: 86/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures: March 9: KJAX: 69/2024 KCRG: 64/1980 KGNV: 69/2024 KAMG: 63/1973

March 10: KJAX: 65/1922 KCRG: 64/1980 KGNV: 66/1909 KAMG: 62/1992

March 11: KJAX: 66/1880 KCRG: 67/2015 KGNV: 64/1973 KAMG: 70/1975

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 84 62 86 62 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 77 62 78 62 / 10 10 20 0 JAX 87 62 89 62 / 10 10 20 0 SGJ 83 62 84 63 / 10 10 20 0 GNV 88 60 90 62 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 88 61 90 62 / 10 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.