textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Strong Thunderstorm Risk Today Late Afternoon & Evening. Areas of Concern: Inland SE GA & Suwannee River Valley. Main Concern: Localized Wind Gusts up to 60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes

- Marine & Surf Zone Hazards. High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough Surf Today. Small Craft Advisories through Monday Night

- Extended Duration of Dangerous Cold this Week. Nightly Freezes Monday Night through Next Weekend. Tuesday Morning Wind Chills in the Teens to low 20s. Inland Hard Freezes Likely

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Patchy fog remains over portions of inland SE GA under overcast skies with low clouds breaking up across I-10 and partly cloudy skies over north central FL helping boost temperatures there into the low 80s while in the 40s north of Waycross. Clouds will linger longer over SE GA as the warm front makes slower progress with mostly cloudy skies and highs limited to the mid/upper 60s as winds increase from the south 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph while breezier southerly winds 15-20 mph gusting to 30-35 mph bring much warmer highs south of the warm front into the upper 70s along I-10 and approaching 80 degrees from Jacksonville south along I-95 and along the St Johns river basin with isolated mid 80s over Marion, Putnam and Flagler counties. Cooler highs expected at the coast where highs will only reach the low to mid 60s north of Fernandina Beach into Brunswick and low/mid 70s along the NE FL beaches.

For tonight, the line of showers and embedded T'storms are still expected to arrive into western SE GA counties along US-441 from between 5-9PM and the Suwannee Valley between 7-11PM supported by the HRRR and other CAMs. The best locations where a strong to marginally severe T'storms appear to be areas northwest of Alma where high shear and low CAPE environment and the proximity of the warm front will allow veering winds to be more maximized to support an isolated tornado or strong to severe wind gusts 40-60 mph. the window will be short lived with the loss of daylight and energy aloft moving northeast of the area.

After 10PM, T'storms will weaken into the SE GA coast with storm chances dissipating and showers moving into coastal NE FL and north central FL by midnight with some brief heavy downpours, but overall rainfall should be under a half inch south of I-10 and between a half inch and one inch northwest of US-84.

Gradient of overnight low temperatures expected as a colder airmass begins to filter in behind the cold front late tonight with northwest winds bringing low/mid 40s over areas northwest of Alma to the mid 60s along the Flagler county coast and 50s for majority of NE FL and coastal SE GA. Southerly winds will remain elevated 10-15 mph overnight turning northwesterly just before sunrise.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A stretch of drier and colder conditions begin at the start of the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the region.

Lingering showers along the southeastern portions of the area will push offshore by the mid to late morning on Monday. Breezy northwesterly winds, will allow for a constant flow of cold and dry air to filter into the area. Temperatures are expected to steadily drop through Monday as a non-diurnal pattern will be in place with the passage of the cold front overnight. Cool daytime highs from the mid 40s to lower 50s across inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley Region, while northeast and north central FL will be in the 60s, with the warmer temperatures along north central FL counties. By the evening hours, sub-freezing temperatures make a return to the area as Lows plunge down into the 20s. The cooler temperatures and relatively windy conditions will bring wind chills down into the teens across SE GA and NE FL, with north central FL and coastal locations having wind chills in the lower 20s, with a Cold Weather Advisory to be issued with the next forecast package.

Tuesday, cold and dry conditions will persist with daytime highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Overnight Lows will trend a bit warmer than Monday night, but will still be in the mid 20s area-wide. Weaker winds will help to keep wind chills in the 20s as well, but still at criteria levels for a Cold Weather Advisory likely needed over NE FL on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

By midweek, there will be another arctic front expected to move through the region. This will help to reinforce the high pressure ridging extending into our region through at least Thursday. The cold and dry conditions will persist from midweek and trough the end of the week, with daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and overnight Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s each afternoon/evening. As was the case with the last package, guidance still remains inconsistent resolving the evolution of another frontal system and possible surface low during the upcoming weekend. Will go with a persistent forecast at this time, keeping it dry for now. Temps trend below climo for the long term period.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

The 18Z TAF period will begin with Northeast Florida TAF sites improving to MVFR ceilings now into 19Z as a warm front lifts over the duval county terminals while SSI will remain in IFR to LIFR ceilings through at least 20Z before the warm front arrives. southerly winds increase behind the warm front to around 15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots across the Northeast Florida sites while lighter at SSI near 10-12 knots gusting to 20 knots.

A band of showers and T'storms will approach from the west this evening with weakening T'storms moving towards SSI between 02-06Z with gusty and variable winds up to 25 knots and MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility restrictions there. Updates to the forecast may be needed to monitor whether the line of showers and T'storm can sustain all the way to the Georgia coast. Otherwise, showers will proceed into Northeast Florida after 03-05Z with a trend to MVFR ceilings, then IFR ceilings after 06Z with VCSH coverage until 12Z. Winds will turn westerly overnight around 10 knots and then northwesterly after 12Z Monday with conditions improving gradually to VFR for most sites after 15Z.

MARINE

Northeasterly winds will relax and turn southerly midday to early afternoon as the warm front lifts north of the waters. Strong winds offshore will continue Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight with elevated seas creating exercise caution conditions nearshore. A strong cold front passage will bring a chance for thunderstorms across the waters this evening into Monday morning. Cold northwesterly winds will lead to another period of Small Craft Conditions Monday afternoon spreading across all local waters. Offshore winds will begin to decrease Tuesday and Wednesday before strengthening again Wednesday night with a dry cold frontal passage.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continue today as elevated surf around 4-6 feet continues at local beaches. Offshore winds behind the incoming cold front will lower risk as surf decreases through Monday

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Across Southeast Georgia Monday

A broken line of showers with some embedded t'storms will move into interior southeast GA late this evening, with weakening expected as it progresses southeastward through the overnight hours. A few strong to severe storms will be possible over inland SE GA this evening, with gusty winds up to 40-60mph the main threat. Winds shift northwesterly behind the cold front, with increasingly cool and dry conditions expected throughout Monday as well as good to marginally high dispersions. Cool and dry conditions will settle into the region through mid week as high pressure will be in control.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Frost and freeze potential returns early next week.

CLIMATE

Near Record Highs Sunday, January 25...

Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred.

Record High Temperatures:

January 25: KJAX: 83/2023 KGNV: 85/1950 KCRG: 81/2024

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 46 48 21 46 / 90 0 0 0 SSI 52 55 27 47 / 70 20 0 0 JAX 57 60 25 50 / 50 20 0 0 SGJ 64 65 31 49 / 40 20 0 0 GNV 59 62 27 52 / 70 10 0 0 OCF 62 65 27 53 / 70 20 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.