textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Tuesday.

- Small Craft Advisories through Tonight for Our Local Atlantic Waters.

- Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog at Inland Locations on Tuesday and Wednesday Mornings.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday.

- Scattered Thunderstorms and Widespread Beneficial Rainfall Possible During the Upcoming Weekend.

- Areas of Smoke Possible Near Ongoing Area Wildfires.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches.

- Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible at Inland Locations Early on Tuesday Morning.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1026 millibars) centered over the Mid-Atlantic states and New England, with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard and pushing a "backdoor" cold front southward across the Interstate 4 corridor in central FL. Meanwhile, strengthening low pressure (993 millibars) was accelerating north- northeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the western Great Lakes region. Aloft...troughing continues to progress eastward off the U.S. Atlantic coast, while ridging over Mexico was expanding northeastward across the western Gulf. This ridge was deflecting a potent shortwave trough northeastward across the Upper Midwest and the western Great Lakes region. Latest GOES- East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a large moisture gradient exists across our area, with PWATs of less than one half inch now advecting into inland portions of southeast GA for locations north of Waycross, while values further southward across north central FL were closer to 1.25 inches. Skies have cleared out for locations north and west of Alma in southeast GA that are experiencing the drier air mass, while extensive marine stratocumulus cloud cover was socked in across coastal southeast GA and northeast FL, with breaks in this stratocumulus for locations south of Gainesville in north central FL. A few light showers and sprinkles continue to move onshore across Flagler County, with dry conditions prevailing elsewhere for coastal northeast FL despite lower cloud cover. Temperatures at 19Z ranged from the upper 60s at coastal locations to the lower 80s for portions of north central FL. Dewpoints ranged from around 50 for interior southeast GA to the mid 60s for north central FL.

Northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing trough off the U.S. eastern seaboard will gradually filter a drier air mass currently infiltrating interior southeast GA southward across areas west of I- 95 tonight. This will allow marine stratocumulus streaming onshore to erode from north to south later this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, strong surface high pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard will gradually weaken later tonight and especially on Tuesday. Coastal troughing taking shape over the near shore waters tonight will likely generate showers offshore, with marine stratocumulus periodically impacting coastal locations, especially in northeast FL. Strengthening subsidence and a loosening local pressure gradient may result in patchy to areas of locally dense fog formation at most inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours, presenting the possibility of superfog near ongoing wildfires early on Tuesday morning. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 50s across inland southeast GA to the low and mid 60s at coastal locations, where a light onshore breeze will continue.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Wednesday night):

- Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches on Tuesday.

- Generally Dry and Warmer Conditions.

- Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog at Inland Locations on Wednesday Morning.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Across Southeast GA on Wednesday.

Tuesday: Mid level ridging will support mostly dry conditions with partly to mostly sunny skies. Surface high pressure shifting offshore will allow light east to southeast flow to develop. Highs will range from the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coast to the upper 80s and lower 90s inland.

Tuesday Night: A weak mid level disturbance moving into northern Alabama and northern Georgia will induce surface troughing extending toward the Florida panhandle. Low level flow will veer more southerly overnight with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The upper level disturbance may support a slight chance of showers or an isolated thunderstorm across inland southeast Georgia, mainly northwest of Waycross near the Altamaha. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s with patchy inland fog possible with light southerly surface wind.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: The ridge aloft will continue to weaken as broader troughing develops over the eastern United States. Increasing south to southwest flow ahead of an approaching frontal boundary will advect higher moisture and support warmer temperatures, with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected, primarily north of the Florida and Georgia border across southeast Georgia during the afternoon and evening. Very isolated activity may extend southward toward the I-10 corridor Wednesday night. Rain chances will increase into the 25 to 35 percent range across SE GA.

Lows Wednesday night will be in the mid to upper 60s.

Overall, this midweek period marks the beginning of a gradual transition toward a more unsettled pattern, although convective coverage remains limited, with the highest rainfall amounts generally around one tenth of an inch focused northwest of Waycross.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Possible on Thursday.

- Scattered Thunderstorms and Widespread Beneficial Rainfall Possible During the Upcoming Weekend.

Thursday: A cold front will move into the area from the northwest, bringing a more organized round of showers and thunderstorms as moisture deepens and low level convergence increases. Rain chances rise to around 35 to 55 percent. Highs will remain warm in the mid to upper 80s with max temps potentially rising to near 90 across north central Florida.

The front is expected to push south of the area Thursday night, with drier air filtering in and rain chances rapidly decreasing. Lows will fall into the mid 50s SE GA, upper 50s inland NE FL and lower 60s along the coast and north central FL.

Friday: Weak zonal dirty ridge aloft builds briefly over the region, supporting generally dry conditions with near seasonal temperatures. Highs will range from the upper 70s coast to mid 80s with some max temps near 90 across north central FL. A low chance of isolated showers Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: Forecast confidence decreases through the weekend as model guidance diverges on frontal placement and surface low evolution. The ECMWF favors a more organized Gulf low, while the GFS depicts a stronger northern stream system driving southward into the region, potentially supporting a more organized line of convection.

Despite these differences, guidance generally indicates the boundary lifting northward as a warm front, allowing deeper moisture to return and increasing rain chances. Shower and thunderstorm coverage may become more widespread, with probabilities rising into the 40 to 60 percent range. While a wetting rainfall appears possible, the timing, placement, and amounts remain uncertain.

Model consensus indicates late Sunday night the front and associated low shifting east and southeast of the area. This will lead to decreasing rain chances into early Monday, with probabilities lowering to around 15 to 20 percent, mainly east of Highway 301 overnight.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday, with near record highs possible at some northeast Florida climate sites. Cooler conditions will follow, with temperatures trending closer to or slightly below normal from Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

MVFR ceilings will prevail at the regional terminals through around 22Z. Ceilings should lift above 3,000 feet at the inland terminals before 00Z, while marine stratocumulus cloud cover streaming onshore likely keeps ceilings in the MVFR range, just under 3,000 feet, at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals through at least 06Z Tuesday. IFR to LIFR conditions are likely to develop at VQQ after 06Z, with MVFR visibilities expected to develop at GNV after 08Z. IFR conditions will be possible at GNV towards sunrise, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF at this time. MVFR to IFR ceilings could develop at JAX, CRG, SGJ, and SSI towards sunrise, but confidence in this scenario was too low to include at this time. Fog and lower cloud ceilings that may develop at the inland terminals late tonight and early Tuesday should dissipate by the mid-morning hours, with VFR conditions expected to prevail at the regional terminals by 14Z. Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 10-15 knots at the regional terminals through around 22Z, except at SGJ, where speeds of 15-20 knots and gusty will continue. Northeasterly surface winds will then gradually diminish after 22Z, with calm conditions expected at the inland terminals by 06Z, with speeds remaining around 5 knots at the coastal terminals. East-northeasterly to easterly surface winds will prevail by 15Z Tuesday, with sustained speeds increasing to 5-10 knots inland and around 10 knots at the coastal terminals.

MARINE

Strong high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to push a frontal boundary southward down the Florida peninsula. Strong northeasterly winds will persist across our local waters through early this evening, creating Small Craft Advisory conditions throughout the northeast Florida and offshore waters adjacent to southeast Georgia through late this evening. High pressure will then weaken as it slides southeastward on Tuesday, becoming positioned off the southeastern seaboard, allowing for onshore winds and seas to gradually subside through Tuesday night. A cold front will then enter the southeastern states on Wednesday, possibly bringing a few showers and thunderstorms to the Georgia waters during the afternoon and evening hours. This front will then slowly move across the rest of our local waters on Thursday and Thursday evening, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. This front will briefly shift south of our region on Friday before a wave of low pressure develops over the Gulf this weekend, likely spreading additional showers and thunderstorms across our local waters during the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents:

High risk of rip currents is expected across NE FL beaches today and Tuesday due to breezy NE winds and long period swells. High end moderate risk prevails at SE GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- PATCHY DAYTIME HIGH DISPERSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

- High Daytime Dispersion Likely on Wednesday.

Breezy northeast winds will continue this afternoon and early evening, with sustained speeds near 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph, strongest winds occurring near the coast. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 30 to 40 percent across inland southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida.

Another dry day is in the forecast Tuesday as northeast morning winds turn more east-southeasterly in the afternoon. Min RH will be 30 to 35 percent west of highway west of highway 301.

High dispersion values are expected at times through midweek, especially on Wednesday ahead of the next frontal passage where mixing heights during the afternoon range from 6.0 to 7.5 kft with s prevailing west-southwesterly transport winds at 15 to 20 mph.

Chances of wetting rains increase north of I-10 Thursday. There's also the potential for more rain next weekend, but uncertainty is rather high this far out.

Fog and Additional Concerns: Patchy fog is possible inland early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Smoke from nearby fires may result in localized visibility reductions, especially during the overnight and early morning hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 87 63 89 / 10 10 10 20 SSI 62 78 66 84 / 10 10 0 20 JAX 58 84 63 91 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 65 81 63 88 / 10 0 0 10 GNV 58 89 61 91 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 59 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452- 454. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.