textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Waves of Showers & Isolated Storms through Saturday. Few Strong Storms Possible Across Northeast FL, south of I-10, Today. Total rainfall amounts of 0.25-1 in, with Locally Higher Totals possible

- Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds Expected Next Week. Increasing Marine Hazards Likely by Tuesday and Wednesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT:

- Isolated T'storms For NE FL this Afternoon, Capable of Gusty Winds

A line of pre-frontal showers currently stretched across Suwannee Valley to coastal SE GA continues its trek southeastward through the area this afternoon into tonight. The weakening cold front decelerates as a mid-level shortwave trough moves through the SE US today. Upper level divergence downstream from the trough axis will provide enough lift to develop isolated embedded thunderstorms along the line for areas mainly south of I-10 during the afternoon/early evening commute (3-7pm). Clouds cleared this morning for portions of NE FL allowing for diurnal heating and marginal instability (CAPE < 1000 J/kg). However, weak lapse rates aloft and marginal shear will hinder strong to severe storm development today. A stronger storm could produce gusty winds of 30-40 mph.

Scattered showers will linger through most of the night along the still quite diffuse frontal zone stretched across northern FL. Showers will finally exit around day break Saturday as northwesterly flow increases in the wake of the mid level trough axis. Less shower activity across portions of SE GA may lead to more extensive stratus development and possibly patchy dense fog for inland areas from Waycross westward early Saturday AM. Low temperatures will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Scattered showers along and south of I-10 with isolated thunderstorms, with a few strong storms possible, along north central FL on Saturday.

A cold front will clear to the south of the area on Saturday as high pressure builds into the region behind the front Saturday night through Sunday.

The cold front pushes further south of the area on Saturday. The lingering moisture behind the front may be enough for scattered showers for locations south of the I-10 corridor and isolated storms for locations along north central FL into the late afternoon hours. Otherwise, high pressure begins to push into the area behind the front. Daytime highs in the upper 60s along the coast and locations north of Waycross in SE GA, with the rest of NE FL away from the coast in the lower to mid 70s.

By evening, shower chances diminish as cooler air will bring overnight Lows in the 40s for SE GA, while the lower 50s across NE FL and coastal locations.

High pressure building in will bring drier air to into the area, limiting chances of showers over inland locations. Onshore flow could bring a couple of coastal showers as a coastal trough develops with the high pressure building in. Temperatures will rebound to rise into the mid to upper 70s over inland locations, with onshore flow keeping coastal locations in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Chances for coastal showers next week and a persistent onshore flow through midweek

The coastal trough will persist into the upcoming week as the high pressure begins to shift towards the Atlantic waters. A dry front will push south and across the area heading into midweek, with winds over the coastal waters increasing a bit behind the front. With the passage of the front, onshore flow will persist through the forecast period, continuing the chances for coastal showers each day. Winds will begin to lessen by midweek as winds shift to be more easterly.

Temperatures this period will trend above seasonal averages.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

A line of pre-frontal showers will move across the TAF sites beginning around 18-20Z. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible with this activity for the NE FL sites mainly between 20-02Z. MVFR conditions are possible with heavy showers and isolated storms. Southwesterly winds with gusts up to 20 knots will be possible ahead of the rain at NE FL airfields late this morning through the early to mid afternoon. First wave of convection will shift offshore between after 02z this evening with vicinity showers lingering overnight with light and variable winds. A stratocumulus cloud deck is forecast to push into the SE GA and NE FL coast tonight with high chances for IFR ceilings after 06z.

MARINE

Southerly winds this afternoon shift to northerly by tonight as a cold front moves across the waters. Pre-frontal showers with embedded thunderstorms will enter the waters later this afternoon and continue into tonight. The front will shift south of the waters on Saturday. Low pressure developing along the front will result in breezy northerly winds across the waters and rounds of showers until the low moves northeast away from the coast Saturday night. High pressure will lead to a light onshore flow before a possible strong surge of northeast winds reaches the waters with a back door cold front on Monday. Winds and seas may reach small craft advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will turn more onshore through the middle of next week with coastal troughs developing bouts of showers over the waters.

Rip Currents: A low risk through Saturday due to lighter winds and lower swells, with a moderate risk returning by Sunday and Monday due to gradually strengthening onshore winds that will continue through all of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy Low Dispersions Saturday - Patchy High Dispersions Monday, Tuesday And Wednesday

Northeasterly flow develops behind the frontal passage this evening as high pressure dips over the area. Scattered showers through Saturday afternoon along and south of the I-10 corridor in NE FL, with isolated thunderstorms along north central FL as the front clears the area. Poor to Fair dispersions expected on Saturday/Sunday as high pressure builds over the area. Drier air filters into the area with the high pressure, but min RH expected to remain above critical levels this weekend and the start of the upcoming week. The northeasterly-easterly onshore flow will bring the chances for coastal showers through midweek of the upcoming week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Potential for patchy fog over SE GA behind the front this evening. Thunderstorms are possible Tonight through Saturday, with a few strong storms possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 52 68 48 77 / 20 10 0 0 SSI 54 63 52 67 / 30 20 10 0 JAX 55 69 50 75 / 40 30 0 0 SGJ 56 67 53 68 / 50 40 10 0 GNV 56 75 50 78 / 50 30 10 0 OCF 58 76 52 79 / 80 40 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.