textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River

- Inland Fog Late Tonight into Thursday Morning

- Local NorEaster Conditions Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense

Surface high pressure will remain in place across the area Tonight. The combination of low level moisture from recent rains and light winds, will produce fog again Tonight. The fog may become locally dense.

Due to a light onshore flow across the relatively warmer coastal waters, lows will range from the lower 60s over inland SE GA, to the upper 60s to around 70 along the coast.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Potential for a few strong storms over north central FL Friday afternoon

High pressure over the area will begin to shift east towards the Atlantic as a cold front pushes in from the west. The front will begin to push into the area on Friday, sweeping south of the area by Friday night. Easterly onshore winds persist on Thursday, then veer to southwesterly on Friday ahead of the front away from the coast. Stronger winds are expected to develop along the coast as high pressure builds northwest of the area after the front's passage during the overnight hours into Saturday.

Dry conditions will continue on Thursday. Chances of precipitation make a return Friday for locations across north central Florida, primarily along the coast as onshore flow continues to bring in moisture onshore. Could see a couple of storms develop by the afternoon hours.

Daytime highs will range in the 80s during the end of the work week, with warmer temperatures over inland locations. Overnight Lows will be in the 60s, warmer temperatures along coastal locations.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Saturday through Tuesday

After the passage of a cold front, high pressure builds north of the area this weekend. This will bring elevated northeasterly onshore winds across the local waters and coastal locations through the weekend and into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers along coastal locations through midweek. The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken.

Temperatures will be below average during the period, with daytime highs around the mid to upper 70s during the weekend, upper 70s to lower 80s by next week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Surface high pressure will prevail over area this 00z TAF period. VFR conditions are expected this evening, with fog developing overnight due to ample low level moisture.

Restrictions due to fog are anticipated overnight into Thursday morning.

VFR conditions are forecast from mid morning Thursday through Thursday afternoon.

MARINE

High pressure over the southeast states will move slowly east, and push well offshore tonight into Friday with light winds and seas. A strong cold front will cross the local waters late Friday night through Saturday morning, followed by high pressure building to the north. The passage of the cold front will bring a surge of strong north to northeasterly winds over the waters with elevated seas by late Friday night and Saturday into early next week. Small Craft Advisories are anticipated with the potential for Gale conditions this weekend into early next week.

Rip Currents: Northeasterly winds will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches Today through Thursday, while low surf heights keep the risk generally low at the southeast GA beaches. Rough surf and a high rip current risk develops this weekend as strong northeasterly winds develop.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy Low Dispersions This Afternoon - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday

High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week.

Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon, with fair dispersions expected Thursday afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair dispersions expected over NE FL.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is expected during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required the next few mornings. Thunderstorm potential north central FL Friday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 83 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 66 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 70 84 71 86 / 0 10 0 30 GNV 65 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 40 OCF 67 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.