textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Fog This Morning along and north of I-10, Locally Dense. Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday

- High Risk of Rip Currents Today

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Currents lingers at NE FL beaches

- Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours

Early this morning: Just enough low level moisture will be in place for some patchy to areas of fog expected across the interior, with most high res guidance suggesting interior GA having the highest potential, especially for locally dense fog. Otherwise, mostly clear besides some higher clouds starting to fill in from the west towards sunrise, with lows in the 50s inland and around 60F along the coast.

Today: High pressure ridge axis remains in place at the surface from GA across the Carolinas with a dry air mass keeping the forecast rain-free, but some moisture aloft will push across the "dirty" high pressure ridge in the mid/upper levels for some increase in high clouds through the day. Despite the increase in some thinner high clouds still expect Max temps to reach into the middle 80s inland, lower 80s along the I-95 corridor, while the onshore flow will hold the Max Temps in the 70s along the Atlantic Coast. East to Southeast surface winds will increase with the East Coast sea breeze to 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph behind the sea breeze all the way through inland areas.

Tonight: High pressure ridge remains in control at the surface and aloft with a continued stream of thin high clouds from time to time, but still expect low temps to fall into the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. Should be enough boundary layer cooling to support some patchy/areas of fog again over inland areas, with some locally dense fog possible towards sunrise once again.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Fog potential each morning - Dry weather to persist

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast throughout this period, with the ridge extending overhead. The ridge will result in subsidence and continued dry weather.

There will be enough low level moisture for nocturnal fog formation each night. Warming trend will continue this period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- The dry weather will persist, with rising temperatures - Morning fog potential to continue each day.

High pressure ridging will prevail through Friday, as the ridge axis slowly moves toward the southeast. As the ridge becomes centered more to the southeast of the region, the flow over area will come more from the southwest. While the east coast sea breeze will still push inland each afternoon, it will progress less and less inland each afternoon due to the increasing flow from the southwest. With the southwest flow, and the dry airmass, temperatures will continue to rise, with highs inland in the 90s becoming common by Thursday.

On Saturday, the ridge will be off to the southeast, allowing a frontal boundary to move into the southeastern US. The flow increase from the southwest ahead of the front, help to push the warmer air closer and closer to the coast, as the sea breeze becomes nearly pinned at the coast. Highs Saturday in the 90s will be common, in the mid to upper 80s at the beaches.

This front will move across the area Sunday. At this point, this front is expected to move through dry. Temperatures will be a little cooler Sunday.

As the flow becomes more from the southwest this period, the focus for fog will shift inland. The potential will exist each night.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

This TAF period will feature VFR conditions through most of the overnight hours as high pressure remains stretched across the area with near calm winds inland and up near 5 knots at the coast. Guidance suggests patchy to areas of fog developing at JAX, VQQ, SSI, and GNV and have placed tempo groups for restrictions to MVFR/IFR levels from 08-12Z before all fog lifts by 13Z. Light east to southeast winds will increase to 6-10 knots after 14Z Monday with increasing high level clouds through the afternoon hours. Winds decrease once again around sunset with near calm winds expected once again over inland areas.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly over the next several days.

Rip Currents and Surf:

East swells and onshore flow will persist High Risk of rip currents at NE FL beaches today with surf/breakers 3-4 ft, but will lower to Moderate Risk at SE GA beaches with surf/breakers 2-3 ft. Likely will be able to lower to Moderate risk for all beaches from Tuesday through the remainder of the week as surf slowly subsides.

FIRE WEATHER

- MinRH values at or below 30 percent inland this week - Patchy high dispersions NE FL Today - Areas of high dispersions inland SE GA Thursday and Saturday - Widespread high dispersions Sunday

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast through the week, with the ridge axis extending overhead of the region. This ridge will move south over the weekend, allowing a front to pass through Sunday. High temperatures in the 90s will become common, for all but the beaches later in the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Morning fog possible each day this week.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001

April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 55 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 76 62 77 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 83 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 80 60 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 87 57 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 86 57 88 57 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.