textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Wind Advisory for Strong Gusts through 6 PM

- Today: Red Flag Warning South of Waycross GA & all of Northeast FL. Monday: Fire Weather Watch all local counties

- Cold Blast Returns Tonight with Nightly Freezes through Wed Morning. Tonight: Freeze Warning North of I-10. Monday Night: Freeze Watch.

- Wind Chills in the 20s Tonight & Monday Morning; Cold Weather Advisory Issued.

- Gale Warning through Monday Afternoon

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

>> MAIN HIGHLIGHTS:

- Breezy to Gusty Winds through the Afternoon (Wind Advisory) - Critical Wildfire Danger Today and this Evening

- Freeze for SE GA & inland NE FL north of I-10 Tonight

- Dangerously low wind chill values area-wide Tonight

A powerful arctic cold front, being driven by a low pressure system that is currently deepening rapidly along the eastern seaboard, has almost exited the region as of the noon hour. Well to the northwest of the deepening low, a strong arctic high pressure will begin to translate southward out of Canada resulting in an intensifying pressure gradient locally.

That tightly packed gradient will result in persistent breezy-to- strong winds through the rest of the afternoon and overnight. The strongest winds are expected through the rest of the afternoon as low level winds continue to respond to the bomb cyclone to the northeast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for wind gusts 40-45 mph through the early evening hours. Anticipate gusts continuing overnight but should lessen to the 20-25 mph range.

Combine the prevailing northwesterly winds and gusts expected tonight with the incoming arctic chill, it'll feel like the low 20s and upper teens across SE GA and the lower 20s across NE FL late tonight and Monday morning. This has prompted the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight in addition to the current Freeze Warning for inland areas north of I-10. Within the freeze warning area, low temperatures will be in the upper 20s and low 30s while mid 30s are expected else where across NE FL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

>> MAIN HIGHLIGHTS: - Nightly Freezes & Cold Wind Chills Mon/Tue Mornings

- Wildfire Danger

- Inland Frost Tue Night/Wed Morning

Dry weather with below normal temperatures this period and nightly freezes.

After a morning freeze and cold wind chills in the 20s Monday morning, highs will only warm into the upper 40s across SE GA to the 50s across NE FL about 15-20 degrees below average highs for this time of year. Gusty NNW winds continue Monday with peak gusts of 25- 35 mph, just below wind advisory threshold, as latest REFS-CONUS model runs has gust potential of 40 mph or more less than 5% for all areas. Winds weaken into Monday evening as the surface high builds eastward across the Gulf Coast region. There is high confidence of a widespread freeze Monday night into Tuesday morning with hard freeze (temps near 25 degC) inland and a light freeze at the coast, and the Freeze Watch for this period remains in place. With lows near 25 deg, a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for portions of inland northeast FL early Tuesday morning. Less wind Tuesday as the high builds over the area with highs warming into the 50s to near 60, but still below average. The ridge builds across south FL Tuesday night, with a brief, light inland freeze possible and areas of frost more favorable across portions of northeast FL where cloud cover will be thinner compared to southeast GA. Confidence in a freeze is not as high Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with cloud cover and increasing SW boundary layer winds.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

>> MAIN HIGHLIGHTS: - Warming Trend Begins Wednesday

- Needed Rain Chances Return Late Thursday and continue into Weekend with Isolated Thunderstorm Potential

Surface ridge across south FL will bring the best chance of morning fog across northeast FL Thursday morning with an approaching front from the west increasing shower chances across southeast GA by Thursday afternoon. Pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms could impact southeast GA as early as Thursday night, but are more likely Friday as the front moves southward across the area under weakening upper level dynamics. Although shear will be present, weak mid level lapse rates and limited CAPE favor a low risk of severe storms during this time frame. As upper level forcing lifts northeast of the region Friday, the surface front begins to stall across the FL peninsula into the weekend as a short-wave mid level trough develops across the western Gulf and tracks eastward. Depending on where the front stalls, this scenario could bring MUCH needed stratiform rain to portions of the local area. There is also the risk of more thunderstorm coverage, possibly strong next weekend as the Gulf short wave trough becomes absorbed into a stronger long wave eastern CONUS trough into the weekend. There is high confidence of no freezes during this period.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions and breezy with frequently gusty northwesterly winds through tonight. Gusts up to 35 knots possible this afternoon, lessening to 20-25 knots overnight and Monday.

MARINE

Frequent gusts to gale force will continue through Monday afternoon between a strong surface low pressure well northeast of the region and high pressure to the west. Winds and seas begin to subside Monday night into Tuesday as the surface high builds eastward across the Gulf Coast states. The high will extend across south Florida Wednesday as the next front approaches from the west into Thursday. A low chance of thunderstorms returns by Friday as the front slowly shifts south across the local waters, likely stalling across the Florida peninsula into the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for the northeast Florida and southeast Georgia beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Red Flag Conditions this afternoon and again Monday from Waycross Southward

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Today, Monday, And Wednesday

- Elevated nighttime dispersion values and poor humidity recovery Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for all of northeast and north central Florida and for portions of southeast Georgia. Despite some beneficial rainfall last night for areas north of Waycross, elsewhere the amounts did not reach levels that would significantly lower the potential to negate the ongoing Red Flag Warning or the Fire Weather Watch Monday.

A cold, dry arctic airmass plunging southward through the region this afternoon will result in critically low humidity this afternoon between 2-6 PM as sustained winds hold around 15 to 20 mph with gusts peaking around 30-40 mph. Winds will decrease but remain elevated overnight resulting elevated overnight dispersion and poor recoveries. On Monday, critically strong winds, low humidity, and drought stricken fuels will yield a second day of Red Flag Conditions from the Okefenokee NWR southward through northeast FL.

Winds will relax Tuesday as high pressure develops across FL, but a long-duration period of low humidity is expected before humidity trends high Wednesday onward.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A light freeze is expected tonight for inland locations north of I-10. Expect widespread freezing temperatures Monday night. Widespread frost and a possible light freeze are forecast on Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 60 30 48 26 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 67 33 50 31 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 70 32 53 28 / 30 0 0 0 SGJ 73 35 54 32 / 30 0 0 0 GNV 71 33 55 27 / 30 0 0 0 OCF 73 34 55 26 / 30 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533- 633. Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220- 225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522- 533-633. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125- 132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333- 340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for FLZ023-024-120- 124-125-220-225-322-325-425. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ023-024-120-220-322. GA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for GAZ151-152- 162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for GAZ151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450- 452-454. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ470- 472-474. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ470-472-474.