textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents thru the Weekend

- Small Craft Advisory and Rough Surf thru Tonight

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer Friday through next Week. Elevated Wildfire Danger returns this weekend

- Fog Potential Returns this Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Hazards along the coast continue, High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf

The region will remain between high pressure to the north northeast, and an inverted trough to the south today. Shower chances will decrease today, with best chance for an isolated shower along the NE FL coast as NE winds remain breezy at 15-20G25-30 mph along the coast and NE 10-15G20-25 mph over inland areas. Max temps will rebound closer to normal values today in the middle 70s at the Atlantic beaches to upper 70s along the I-95 corridor and lower 80s over inland areas. High pressure will start to settle over the region tonight with near normal lows in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast. Patchy/Areas of fog development expected late tonight as winds become 5 mph or less over inland areas. For now expect some locally dense fog in some locations, but not organized enough for dense fog advisories at this time.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Reduced Winds, Drier & Warmer into Weekend - Inland Late Night/Early Morning Fog

Dry weather conditions along with clearing skies and breezy diurnal easterly winds will be in place through the weekend as high pressure builds southward and becomes the dominant feature over the region. Potential for late night and early morning fog developments to return during this period. Daily high temperatures for this weekend will rise into the lower to mid 80s over inland areas and into the mid 70s for areas along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 50s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 60s near the shoreline.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry and Progressive Warming Trend - Elevated to High Wildfire Danger Inland

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the region through next week with dry weather conditions persisting through into the weekend. Prevailing flow will become less uniform by midweek as the center of rotation drifts in over north Florida. Warming trend will continue through next week with daily high temps rising to be well above the seasonal average and are expected to reach into the lower 90s by midweek.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

The 12Z TAF period begins with VFR/MVFR ceilings mix across the area terminals with north northeast winds 6-10 knots with VCSH and light drizzle at times along the coast and duval county sites. High pressure to the north northeast will continue northeasterly onshore flow with a few coastal showers drifting to the coastal sites on and off, so have VCSH at SGJ and SSI through 00Z. Breezy northeast winds increase to 15 gusting to 25 knots along the coast and 12-15 knots inland with gusts in the 20-25 knot range. Winds decrease after 00Z to 3-5 knots inland and around 10 knots at the coast with scattered ceilings near 4.0 kft. By late tonight, low end MVFR ceilings will return along the coast in the moist onshore flow with some patchy fog inland as winds grow calm after 05Z-06Z.

MARINE

Strong high pressure will be centered to the north northeast, with an inverted trough to the south. Northeast winds will slowly decrease today and into the weekend. As winds begin to decrease seas will also lower through today but elevated seas are expected to linger over the offshore waters. The high pressure will move off to the northeast over the weekend, and more toward the east northeast next week.

Rip Currents and Surf:

Onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents today, and likely through the weekend as elevated surf and onshore flow prevail. High surf of 6-8 feet today, will lower to 4-6 feet Saturday and 3-5 feet by Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Daily High Inland Dispersion - Critically Low Humidity Inland Southeast Ga Saturday

Breezy winds will redevelop out of the northeast today, however wind speeds will be comparatively less than the past few days, along with less cloud cover and reduced coastal shower activity. By Saturday, an extended dry period begins with progressively warming high temperatures will be in place through late next week. Afternoon humidity values approach critically low values in the afternoon on Saturday across inland southeast GA, including the Okefenokee NWR. Next week, the drier airmass extends southward across north Florida. Monday through Thursday, minimum inland humidity of 25-35% is forecast with daily afternoon Gulf and Atlantic coast sea breezes presses inland.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Inland fog potential returns this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 82 51 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 74 57 76 62 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 77 56 81 57 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 76 61 77 62 / 20 10 0 0 GNV 81 55 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 82 56 83 57 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450- 452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472- 474.