textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Mainly Afternoon Thunderstorms this Weekend

- Small Craft Advisories Likely Sunday Night through Tuesday. Gale Warnings Possible on Monday Night

- Elevated Fire Danger Inland on Monday and Tuesday

- Wind Chill Values of 20- 25 Inland Early on Tuesday Morning

- Freezes Likely at Inland Locations Early on Tues & Wed Mornings. Widespread Frost Likely Late Tues Night & Early Wed Morning

UPDATE

Issued at 634 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

No changes to ongoing forecast as warm SW flow will push Max Temps into the lower to middle 80s and scattered showers and isolated storm potential along pre-frontal trough as it pushes across the local area today. Some interaction with a weak East Coast sea breeze is possible along the I-95 corridor late this afternoon and a few strong storms with gusty winds and heavy downpours can be expected.

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Overnight surface analysis depicts a frontal boundary stretching from the Mid-Atlantic states southwestward through the the Tennessee Valley and the Ozarks. Meanwhile, a strong cold front was organizing over the Plains States and the Intermountain West. Aloft...a shortwave trough was progressing eastward across the Ohio Valley, with zonal flow aloft in place across the Deep South to the south of this feature. Weak shortwave energy embedded within this zonal flow pattern was moving eastward along the northern Gulf coast, sparking widely scattered convection from the FL panhandle southward into the northeastern Gulf. Otherwise, a potent shortwave trough was diving southeastward across eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably dry air mass remains in place locally, with PWATs generally in the 1 - 1.25 inch range. However, a plume of deeper moisture, containing PWATs of 1.4 - 1.6 inches, was advecting across the eastern FL panhandle and FL Big Bend region ahead of the aforementioned weak shortwave energy that was traversing the northern Gulf coast. High altitude, mostly thin cirrus that was emanating from convection located over the northeastern Gulf was moving across the Interstate 10 corridor, with patches of fog developing elsewhere across our region. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z ranged from the mid to upper 50s at most inland locations to the mid 60s at coastal locations.

NEAR TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Zonal flow aloft will transport weak shortwave energy eastward across our region today. This feature's associated plume of deeper moisture, featuring PWATs around 1.5 inches, will likely be enough to trigger widely scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across our area, with activity currently over the FL Panhandle expected to enter western portions of the Suwannee Valley and inland southeast GA later this morning, with convection expected to reach the I-95 corridor during the mid to late afternoon hours. Dewpoints rising to the mid and upper 60s and surface based CAPE values increasing to the 1,000 - 1,500 j/kg range should support at least a few thunderstorms through late afternoon before instability wanes towards sunset. Bulk westerly shear values of only 20-30 knots should keep any convection that manages to develop below strong levels, with the main hazards being briefly heavy downpours and sporadic lightning strikes. Highs will climb to the low and mid 80s at most locations, except upper 70s for coastal southeast GA, where southerly winds behind the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary will advect slightly cooler air this afternoon from the marine environment, where water temperatures have fallen to around 70 degrees.

Southwesterly flow will begin to deepen across the Deep South tonight as potent shortwave troughing pivots eastward across the Upper Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley, with this feature spawning cyclogenesis over the Ohio River Valley. A cold front extending south-southwestward from this developing low pressure center across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys will strengthen overnight. Southwesterly low level flow will likely advect a deck of low stratus clouds from the FL Big Bend and Nature Coasts eastward across the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor overnight, with these lower clouds potentially reaching the U.S. Highway 301 corridor and even I-95 during the predawn and early morning hours on Sunday. Warm air advection tonight will keep lows in the low to mid 60s area-wide.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

...A 50 to 55 degree temperature difference is forecast between Sunday afternoon and Monday night...

A strong cold front will move southeast across the forecast area Sunday into Sunday evening. Convection is expected to accompany this passage, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation chances are still fairly low, despite the strength of the front, due to the dry airmass that is in place over the area. Any storms which do develop could become strong though, due to the significant thermal gradient with boundary and diurnal instability ahead of it. Southwest flow ahead of the boundary will push temperatures into the lower to mid 80s Sunday.

High pressure will build from the west northwest behind the frontal passage Sunday night through Monday night. Precipitation chances will end early Sunday evening, as skies clear from northwest to southeast. Skies will then be clear through Monday night.

Cold advection will sweep into the area on a northwest flow Sunday night through Monday night. Lows Sunday night will range from the lower 40s over inland SE GA, to the lower 50s over coastal NE FL. During the day on Monday, sunny skies will allow temperatures to moderate into the lower to mid 50s SE GA, and into the upper 50s to lower 60s NE FL.

An inland Freeze is forecast Monday night. Inland lows in the mid 20s to around 30. Lows in the middle 30s all the way to the coast. Except for a few patches of frost, winds should be elevated enough to limit frost potential.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

The high pressure ridge will build overhead Tuesday and start to move more toward the east Wednesday. Skies will remain clear through Wednesday. Tuesday will be the coolest day this week, as once the high begins to move off to the east, the flow will come from the west southwest. Tuesday will be well below seasonal averages with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Another chilly night is forecast for Tuesday night with an inland Freeze expected. Winds will be near calm Tuesday night, so significant Frost potential for all but coast and areas near the St Johns River. Highs Wednesday will rise into the upper 60s.

After a weak front passes through Wednesday night, high pressure will build again for Thursday through Friday. Mainly clear skies and dry weather to prevail Wednesday night through Friday. Temperatures will be near to a little below normal late in this period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities will be possible through around 13Z at CRG, VQQ and GNV. VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals towards 14Z. Widely scattered showers may approach the regional terminals this afternoon. Confidence was only high enough to indicate vicinity coverage at this time. Low stratus ceilings are then expected to move onshore from Apalachee Bay across the Suwannee Valley after 03Z, with IFR conditions possible before 06Z Sunday at GNV, VQQ, and JAX. Southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained around 5 knots through sunrise at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, while sustained speeds remain below 5 knots at the inland terminals. Southwesterly surface winds will then increase to 5-10 knots at the regional terminals by 15Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will only move slowly inland on Saturday afternoon, with surface winds shifting to southeasterly around 10 knots at the coastal terminals after 18Z. Surface winds will shift to southerly at the regional terminals towards 00Z, with speeds diminishing to around 5 knots by 04Z Sunday. Low level SW flow and increasing moisture ahead of approaching frontal boundary will lead to widespread LIFR conds at all TAF sites towards the end of the TAF period, mainly in the 09-12Z time frame.

MARINE

Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Southwesterly winds will develop on Saturday and will gradually strengthen on Sunday afternoon ahead of a strong cold front that will be entering the southeastern U.S. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this front later this afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon and evening. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through Sunday evening.

The strong cold front will cross our local waters during the overnight hours on Sunday night, with Small Craft Advisory conditions overspreading the offshore waters after midnight as winds abruptly shift to northwesterly and increase to 20-25 knots after midnight, with seas building to 3-5 feet. Caution level wind speeds of 15-20 knots are expected to develop after midnight near shore, with speeds then increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels by early Monday afternoon, when seas will increase to 3-5 feet. Strong high pressure building into the southeastern states on Monday will result in occasional Gale Force wind gusts on Monday night, when Gale Warnings may be necessary. Seas will peak at Caution levels of 4-6 feet near shore on Monday night, with offshore seas peaking in the 5-8 foot range on Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure will then shift eastward and will become centered directly over our local waters by midweek, allowing for winds and seas to gradually diminish.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Southwesterly transport winds will gradually strengthen this morning, becoming breezy this afternoon. These breezy transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values for inland portions of northeast and north central FL, with fair values forecast elsewhere. Transport winds will remain breezy and will shift to west-southwesterly on Sunday, with breezy southwesterly surface winds expected to develop by early afternoon. These breezy surface and transport winds will create good to marginally high daytime dispersion values region-wide. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northwesterly before sunrise on Monday, with speeds steadily increasing as the day progresses. These winds will usher in a much cooler and drier air mass, likely resulting in long durations of critically low humidity values across inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley on Monday, likely creating an Elevated Fire Danger. Strong surface and transport winds on Monday will again create good to marginally high daytime dispersion values region-wide.

CLIMATE

Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Record High Temperatures This Weekend:

November 8: KJAX: 85/2024 KCRG: 84/2020 KGNV: 89/2018 KAMG: 86/2000

November 9: KJAX: 88/1986 KCRG: 85/2018 KGNV: 88/1986 KAMG: 87/1986

Record low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday:

November 11: KJAX: 35/1977 KCRG: 37/1991 KGNV: 31/1943 KAMG: 27/1943

November 12: KJAX: 31/2011 KCRG: 35/2011 KGNV: 30/2011 KAMG: 27/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 81 61 82 40 / 40 10 30 0 SSI 77 64 80 46 / 20 20 10 0 JAX 83 64 85 46 / 30 10 20 0 SGJ 83 66 82 50 / 10 10 20 0 GNV 84 65 84 48 / 20 10 20 0 OCF 84 66 82 50 / 10 10 20 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.