textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents today at Northeast Florida Beaches. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Southeast Georgia Beaches

- Elevated Fire Danger Sunday Afternoon as Drought continues. Critically Low Humidity 25-30%. Westerly Winds 10-15mph, with occasional gusts up to 20mph

- Thunderstorm Chances for NE FL Tuesday and Wednesday

- Increased Marine Hazards Tuesday through Wednesday, including Small Craft Advisory and High Risk Rip Currents

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today through Tonight:

- Patchy fog inland this morning - Elevated Fire Danger

The high pressure ridge will remain nearly stationary across the Gulf continuing the west and southwest low level flow over the forecast area. Flow aloft is generally northwesterly and PWATs still remain below 1 inch, close to 0.6 to 0.9 inches. With the subsidence aloft mostly clear skies anticipated. So after a cool morning from the mid 50s to lower 60s and patchy fog/localized low stratus clouds inland, maximum temps once again are well above average by about 10 deg, expecting the mid 80s in most areas, with potential for record highs. Atlantic sea breeze once will again be pinned at the coast during the late afternoon. Occasional breezy west- southwest winds up to 10-15 mph gusting to about 20 mph expected today. Dry air and winds will support an elevated fire danger today.

Tonight, continued mostly clear with potential for some low clouds pushing in from the Gulf overnight. Fog potential is relatively low, with best potential in the southwest and south zones, but winds aloft should hinder dense fog chances. Lows continue to inch slightly to the mid 50s to around 60 area-wide.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Near Record High Temperatures Monday - Gusty coastal conditions & High Risk of Rip Currents Tuesday - Low-End chance for Isolated Thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening

Chances for showers and possible thunderstorms will increase Monday night and into Tuesday as a frontal boundary pressing in from out of the north moves across the forecast area bringing northeasterly winds across the region as the backdoor front pushes southward. High temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 80s on Monday and then drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s over southeast Georgia and ranging between the 70s and mid 80s for northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will range between the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Potential for isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday - Nightly Fog Potential Wednesday through Friday

A short lived coastal trough will form by Wednesday night, resulting in showers and possible thunderstorms developing over the nearshore waters and extending inland, with north central Florida and areas east of the I-75 corridor having the highest likelihood for convection. After midweek, the ridge axis will build in over the region resulting in drier weather conditions and clearing skies for the latter part of the week. Temperatures will experience a warming trend through the end of the week with max temps peaking up into the lower 90s by Friday. Potential for late night and early morning fog developments after midweek.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. However, patchy fog and low stratus early Sunday morning may affect VQQ and GNV with MVFR and potentially IFR restrictions. The greatest chance for restrictions will be at KGNV. Latest thoughts are to back off on IFR potential for now. This fog and any stratus will lift after 13Z/14Z, with VFR and westerly winds around 10G15-18kts for the remainder of the day. Lighter winds expected after 00Z/01Z Monday.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will prevail through tonight. A cold front will move south southeast across the area waters Monday night. A surge of northeast to east winds develop in the wake of the cold front late Monday night into Tuesday with small craft advisories likely and there will be potential for gale force gusts. The boundary is expected to stall over central Florida Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure will build for Thursday and Friday.

Rip Currents: Nearshore buoy wave heights have dropped only slightly from yesterday with prominent east swells with periods of 10-11 seconds, and based on latest NWPS guidance, still looks like some support for a high risk for northeast FL beaches with surf to about 3-4 ft at times. Despite offshore flow on Monday, solid moderate risk likely, if not a high risk for parts of the northeast FL beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Elevated Fire Danger Today - High Daytime Dispersions Continue Through Tuesday

Near critical humidity, strengthening winds ahead of an approaching "backdoor" cold front, dry fuels, and high dispersions will act to maintain elevated fire conditions through today. Westerly winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph through the afternoon as humidity below 30 percent, especially across NE FL. While winds aren't expected to reach Red Flag thresholds, breezy winds are expected to influence any ongoing or new wildfires in the area. At this time, Red Flag Warnings are not being issued; however, a short- notice Red Flag may be need to be considered later today. The frontal system will push across the region Monday night into Tuesday bringing a small chance of lack-luster rain and potentially a few thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, primarily for northeast Florida districts.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy light fog is expected for inland areas early this morning with more dense development occurring west of the I-75 corridor. Fog development expected to redevelop Monday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Today and Monday:

March 22: KJAX: 90/1935 KAMG: 88/2011 KCRG: 87/2011

March 23: KJAX: 91/1935 KAMG: 86/2012 KCRG: 87/2012

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 58 86 58 / 0 0 0 20 SSI 82 60 81 59 / 0 0 0 20 JAX 88 57 89 60 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 87 56 86 61 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 87 55 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 86 54 84 57 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333-433. GA...None. MARINE...None.