textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning set for inland southeast. Patchy to Areas of Frost for the rest of inland southeast Georgia and. Freezing conditions set for Appling, Bacon, Coffee, and Jeff Davis

- Increasing Marine and Coastal Hazards Next Week. Near Gale Force Northeasterly Gusts, Rough Surf, High Rip Current

UPDATE

Expanded the frost advisory to include inland Glynn, Camden and Nassau counties as well as Baker and portions of the Suwannee River Valley as dew pts were falling quickly into the lower 30s and trending on the drier side. Blended in the NBM 10th percentile for the update as well with lows reaching just near freezing just NW of Waycross toward Baxley and Douglas with mid 30s southward toward Live Oak and Lake City where widespread frost is expected by daybreak Sunday morning. Elevated NNE winds of 5-10 mph toward the coast will keep the airmass more mixed toward the coast and the eastern tier of northeast FL where lows will fall into 40s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Freezing temperatures inland SE GA, with frost potential over much of SE GA

Strong high pressure will continue to build to the northwest through the night. A light to near calm flow from the north northwest will prevail through the night. High cloudiness will increase toward dawn in response to an upper trough. With a cold and dry airmass in place, with skies clear for much of the night, temperatures will again be well below normal. With lighter winds than this morning, the chance for frost will also be greater Tonight.

A wide range in temperatures is forecast Tonight, with lows over inland SE GA around freezing, with lows along the coast in the mid to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Below Normal Temps Continue - Coastal Hazards Increase Monday Night

Surface high pressure continues to dominate the region with the parent high center located well to the north over the Ohio Valley area on Sunday. Low level flow will be northeasterly while broad mid level troughing over the area lifts out to the northeast while weak mid level ridge builds in from the west. A few fair weather cumulus over the region in the aftn especially coastal northeast FL where the northeast flow is breezy, and occasional high clouds at times into Sunday night. The high clouds may thicken by early Monday morning as a strong shortwave trough digs in over the Lower MS valley and brings more high level moisture into the area.

Monday, increasing cloudiness expected as high pressure system stays to the north and the shortwave trough moves toward the area spreading mid to high clouds over the area. In addition, low level flow increases from the northeast and expect an increase in low level moisture and stratocumulus clouds. May see a couple of showers affect Flagler county as low level troughing develops along the coast and convergence generates some lift there. By Monday night, deep moisture and better lift, due to the shortwave trough, will bring a better chance of rain for parts of the area but mainly for northeast FL. Any rainfall amount looks low, at less than 0.10 inches. For now, only going with chances of about 15-25 percent inland northeast FL until confidence increases any further. But, along the St Johns and Flagler county coastal areas, POPs are up to 30-40 percent.

High temps this period will be below normal in the 60s. There is potential for more limited max temps Monday as clouds increase. Lows still chilly Sunday night with the coldest temps over inland southeast GA in the 35-39 degree range where patchy to areas of frost are forecast. Lows trend up Monday night due to more clouds and the northeast flow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Increasing Coastal and Marine Hazards

Persistent northeast to east surface winds will dominate Tuesday through Thursday, potential Friday too, as strong high pressure remains to the north and coastal troughing exists along our coast due to a mid to upper level low lingering offshore. There is also potential for a surface low forming toward the southeast Bahamas late week that tracks northeastward. Not much of a threat of coastal flooding since we between full and new moon phases. Otherwise, the setup of the breezy northeast flow will drive hazardous marine conditions for the Atlantic coast, including rough surf, high rip current risk and dangerous marine conditions for boaters. In addition, elevated rain chances will persist for the coastal northeast FL area for at least Tuesday through Wednesday, with the potential for occasional heavier downpours for Flagler and St Johns counties. There is some agreement that least the rain chances diminish going into Thursday night and Friday as the mid to upper level low pulls away from the east coast, though breezy northeast flow still exist for the southeast parts of the area. Still some low chance for showers, around 15-20 percent, for coastal northeast FL Friday into Saturday as relatively moist low level northeast flow supports some rain chances there.

Temperatures overall trend near average mid week before leaning above normal late week and the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions to prevail this 00z TAF period.

MARINE

High pressure will build toward the northwest this weekend. The high will become centered more to the north early next week, with weak troughing developing over the coastal waters. This pattern will then persist through much of the upcoming week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin late Monday, then continue through the week.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low through Sunday. NE FL: Moderate Sunday. Rip currents will trend toward a high risk early next week, and continuing through the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Cool and dry conditions are forecast to persist throughout the weekend and into Monday as well. Low Min RH possible for inland southeast GA for Sunday afternoon - down to around 30 percent. Winds will be north to northeast today and remain generally out of the northeast for the next several days thereafter. Mostly clear skies and good mixing will result in mostly good dispersions through the weekend, though these will drop a bit by Monday with an increase in cloud cover. Onshore flow then continues, and likely will strengthen, moving towards mid week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected through the weekend. A light freeze is likely early Sunday morning across inland portions of southeast GA. Patchy to areas of frost area expected for the rest of southeast GA and parts of the Suwannee Valley early Sunday.

EQUIPMENT

The KJAX radar is down. Technicians are ordering a new azimuth motor and will work on the equipment early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 32 62 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 46 62 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 38 65 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 48 67 55 68 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 38 67 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 41 69 49 72 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-322-422-522. GA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for GAZ136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for GAZ132>135. MARINE...None.