textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Sea Fog & Periodic Inland Dense Fog Daily through Weekend. Sea fog will drift inland each evening

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today & Thursday NE FL Beaches. Elevated Rip Current Risk Weekend through Next Week

- Record Inland Highs Potential Thursday through Tuesday

- Isolated Thunderstorm Potential Late Wednesday into Thursday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:

- Widespread dense fog will return over inland areas tonight as sea fog spreads inland.

Easterly onshore flow will be in place today and tonight as high pressure ridging shifts further out to the east. Sea fog is anticipated to linger off the coast through today with fog becoming more dense and advecting inland over coastal areas later this afternoon. Fog developments will become more widespread over inland areas overnight and into Thursday morning, with the most dense fog formations expected to occur over southeast Georgia and along and east of the I-95 corridor. High temperatures for this afternoon will rise into the lower to mid 80s for inland areas and in the 70s for areas nearer to the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights Thu-Fri:

- Sea Fog & Inland Nightly Fog, Locally Dense - Few to Scattered inland showers daily - Warming Trend

Warm days and foggy nights continue through Friday with low level moist ESE flow progressively increasing dew points (moisture) across the local area. Prevailing east to southeast winds will bring a dominant east coast sea breeze inland each day, with weak coastal troughs each night brining a low chance (< 10%) of a few light coastal showers each morning, then rain chances shift inland during the afternoon toward the I-75 corridor and thermal low. Aloft, the dominant 500 mb ridge axis will continue to extend over the local area, which will tend to suppress thunderstorm potential. Sea fog will linger near the Atlantic coast during the day, then shift inland each evening and expand across the area overnight. Mild, above normal temperatures will trend from the mid/upper 80s inland to lower 70s coast with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Weather Highlights Sat-Wed:

- Near Record High Temperatures - Spotty Daily Rain Chances - Isolated T'storm Potential Late Wed into Thu - Elevated Rip Current Risk

An early spring weather pattern continues with mostly dry weather, increasingly warm days and foggy nights. Surface to 700 mb SSE steering flow prevails, which will bring a more dominant east coast sea breeze regime and focus the warmer temperatures inland where there is about a 20-30% chance of daily highs near to just above 90 degrees between US Highway 301 and the I-75 corridor Sat-Mon. By Tue- Wed, that chance increase to near 40-50%. Although upper level ridging will maintain prevailing subsidence aloft, low level moisture under 700 mb increases from the ESE with precipitable water values rising to above climo values to 1-1.3 inches each day. This moisture with diurnally instability will spark a few sea breeze and airmass showers, although the extent and resultant rainfall amounts will be limited and not enough put a significant 'dent' in the long term drought.

A pattern shift begins mid to late week as the persistent upper ridge begins to break down offshore of the US East Coast with a long wave trough developing and translating eastward across the central CONUS. Locally, breezier southerly steering flow develops which will shift the warmer temps toward the St. Johns River basin mid-week. A pre-frontal line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will approach the region from the west as early as Wednesday but more likely Wednesday Night into Thursday brining needed rainfall but also lightning, which is a wildfire ignition concern. Right now, looks like Wednesday next week could be a local "Watch Out" day with gusty pre-frontal winds and warm temperatures ahead of the approaching frontal system.

With persistent ESE winds and longer period swells of near 10 seconds, there will likely be an extended period of elevated rip current risk this period. Just a head's up as we have more local visitors during spring break periods.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Initially VFR conditions will shift towards IFR by around 22z to 02z as lower cloud decks and marine fog develops inland over coastal and Jax Metro TAF sites. Low ceilings and obscurations will affect GNV by around 05z to 07z with the area-wide fog and low ceilings expected to lift by around mid to late morning on Thursday by around 14-16z. Winds will be easterly through the forecast period with speeds of about 10 knots becoming more mild during the evening and overnight hours.

MARINE

Dense sea fog will lead to difficult navigation conditions across the waters through the rest of the week. There will be periods over the next few days where fog lifts to stratus but prevailing visibilities will generally be low. Sea fog is likely to continue through the weekend as warm, moist air is pushed across the water by southeasterly flow. Fog will be concentrated within the nearshore waters but is also expected at times offshore the southeast GA coast. Otherwise, surface high pressure will remain fairly stationary, near Bermuda, throughout the next week.

Rip Currents: Breezy northeasterly winds and breakers of 3-4 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches will create a higher end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches this afternoon and on Wednesday. Persistent and breezy onshore winds and gradually building surf will likely result in a high risk of rip currents at the northeast FL beaches on Thursday and Friday, with a higher end moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches. An elevated rip current risk will continue through the weekend and into early next week at area beaches as persistent southeasterly winds prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Warm days and foggy nights continue through Friday. Prevailing east to southeast winds will bring a dominant east coast sea breeze inland each day. There will be enough low level moisture to trigger a few light coastal showers each day, with rain chances shifting inland during the afternoon toward the I-75 corridor. Sea fog will linger near the Atlantic coast during the day, then shift inland each evening and expand across the area overnight. Humidity will remain above critical values and daytime dispersion will be good to generally good inland to generally poor at the coast.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog (visibility < 1 mile) will to move inland from the Gulf and Atlantic each evening and blanket inland locations through the mid to late morning hours. Winds gusts of 15 to 20 mph will develop at coastal area trailing the east coast sea breeze each afternoon into the early evening.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 5: KGNV: 87/1997

March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961

March 7: KGNV: 88/2023 KAMG: 86/1956

March 8: KJAX: 88/1945 KGNV: 88/1921 KAMG: 86/1974 KCRG: 86/1998

March 9: KJAX: 88/2024 KGNV: 89/1907 KAMG: 88/1974

March 10: KGNV: 90/1974 KAMG: 88/1974 KCRG: 86/2019

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7: KGNV: 66/1935

March 8: KGNV: 65/1973

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 58 82 60 83 / 0 10 10 10 SSI 58 72 60 73 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 58 82 61 82 / 0 10 0 10 SGJ 60 77 61 78 / 0 10 10 20 GNV 60 86 62 87 / 0 10 10 30 OCF 61 87 62 87 / 0 20 10 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ125-138-233- 333. GA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ450.