textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches

- Areas of Dense Fog Possible on Tuesday & Wednesday Mornings

- Near Record High Temperatures through Wednesday

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms on Thursday & Thursday Evening. Isolated Strong Storms Possible Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, & Small Hail. Beneficial Rainfall Expected Area-Wide

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions from Thursday Afternoon through Friday Morning

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Areas of dense fog are possible during the predawn and early morning hours on Tuesday, mainly along the Interstate 75 corridor.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue at all area beaches.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strengthening Atlantic high pressure (1028 millibars) centered to the south of Bermuda and extending its axis westward across the FL peninsula. Aloft...zonal flow prevails across the Deep South, while stout ridging remains centered over the Bay of Campeche (southwest Gulf). A shortwave trough embedded within this zonal flow pattern was traversing the Ozarks, with this feature currently developing convection over the lower Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWAT values range from around 1 inch for locations near the Altamaha River in southeast Ga to around 1.3 inches in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. Low stratus cloud cover that blanketed our area this morning has since lifted to a healthy cumulus field, with clearing noted along the immediate Atlantic and Gulf coasts as seabreezes begin pushing inland. Temperatures at inland locations have generally risen to the 80-85 degree range as of 18Z, while temperatures behind the seabreeze cooling through the 70s behind the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary. Dewpoints remain mostly in the 60-65 range.

The shortwave trough riding the periphery of the Bay of Campeche / southwest Gulf ridge will progress across the Deep South tonight. This feature will likely develop a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that will impact central and northern portions of AL and GA overnight. This activity should remain positioned to the north of the Altamaha and Ocmulgee Rivers as it decays during the overnight and predawn hours on Tuesday. Otherwise, low level westerly flow will continue, sea fog developing over Apalachee Bay and the northeast Gulf likely advecting lower stratus clouds onshore along the FL Big Bend and Nature coasts after midnight. These low clouds will likely reach the Interstate 75 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL during the predawn hours, but probabilities for these low clouds and locally dense fog reaching areas east of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor remain low at this time. Otherwise, lows will generally remain in the 60-65 degree range, which is about 10- 14 degrees above climatology for early/mid March.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Morning fog this period, may cause visibility restrictions - Potential for Record High Temperatures

Surface high pressure will be located to the east this period, with ridging extending across forecast area. The ridge will begin to shift to the southeast Wednesday night.

While the chance is too low to mention at this time, an isolated coastal shower or storm can not be ruled out Tuesday afternoon, due to combination of sea breeze interactions and a weak upper wave. The ridging is expected to be stronger on Wednesday, so convection is not forecast.

Fog is expected Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, which may be locally dense.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages this period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Morning fog Thursday, may cause visibility restrictions - Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday

A cold front will move southeast across the area Thursday, bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. These storms may become strong to severe.

High pressure will build from the north Thursday night through Friday.

The high will build more toward the northeast over the weekend. A moist southeast flow around the high, is expected to result in showers Sunday.

Another cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday, with shower and thunderstorm chances.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages throughout this period.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites at least 04Z. Low cigs will begin to advect in from the Gulf across north FL after 06Z tonight. IFR visibilities likely at VQQ after 05Z, with IFR and possibly LIFR ceilings reaching GNV towards 10Z Tuesday, while conditions at VQQ likely deteriorating to LIFR before 08Z. Low confidence for eastward extent of lower cigs close to the predawn hours on Tuesday for SSI, JAX, CRG, and SGJ.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula, creating a prevailing south to southwesterly wind flow across our local waters through midweek. Locally dense sea fog may develop at times on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for the near shore waters north of St. Augustine. Onshore winds will likely surge on Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in Caution conditions throughout our local waters. Otherwise, a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states on Wednesday night will cross our area on Thursday afternoon and evening, accompanied by showers and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms.

Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will create Small Craft Advisory conditions throughout our local waters on Thursday afternoon, with these conditions continuing on Thursday night and Friday morning as high pressure briefly builds over the Mid-Atlantic states. Winds will quickly shift to northerly on Thursday night and then northeasterly by early Friday before speeds gradually diminish on Friday afternoon and evening. Another high pressure center is then expected to build over New England this weekend, creating a prevailing southeasterly wind flow across our local waters by Sunday. Shower chances may increase by late Saturday night and Sunday.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Wednesday due to a persistent easterly ocean swell of 9-10 seconds. Strengthening southerly winds may combine with this swell on Wednesday to create a high risk at the northeast FL beaches, with at least a moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Values Wednesday And Thursday - Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Over Ne Fl Friday And Saturday

High pressure will be centered to the east of the region through Wednesday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Thursday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build to the north Friday, then to the northeast over the weekend. Another cold front will pass through Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog potential each morning through Thursday. Thunderstorm chances, with potential for strong to severe storms, across the area on Thursday, and again Monday

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures: March 9: KJAX: 88/2024 KCRG: 83/2012 KGNV: 89/1907 KAMG: 86/1974

March 10: KJAX: 91/1974 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 90/1974 KAMG: 88/1974

March 11: KJAX: 89/1967 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 88/1974 KAMG: 86/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures: March 9: KJAX: 69/2024 KCRG: 64/1980 KGNV: 69/2024 KAMG: 63/1973

March 10: KJAX: 65/1922 KCRG: 64/1980 KGNV: 66/1909 KAMG: 62/1992

March 11: KJAX: 66/1880 KCRG: 67/2015 KGNV: 64/1973 KAMG: 70/1975

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 63 88 61 89 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 63 79 62 79 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 62 89 62 91 / 0 10 0 0 SGJ 64 85 63 85 / 0 10 0 0 GNV 62 90 62 91 / 0 10 0 0 OCF 62 90 63 90 / 0 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.