textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Today, mainly over northeast FL. Weekend: Increasing chances area-wide

- Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents Area Beaches Today

- Hot Holiday Weekend Potential Max Heat Indices: 100-110F

- Minor River Flooding for Satilla River

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Higher chance for showers and a few thunderstorm today over Northeast Florida.

- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

Patchy fog is expected early this morning for inland areas with some low stratus likely as well. Streamline flow from sfc to 700 mb continues to be light easterly today at about 5-10 kt. Across northeast FL, moisture levels remain near or slightly above normal with PWATs of about 1.75 to 2 inches. Over southeast GA, some drier air is located there and suspect much lower rain chances toward Waycross and Alma at 10-15 percent at best. Overall, anticipate a chance of showers and a thunderstorm in the morning and early afternoon for coastal northeast FL up to 25-40 percent. With time, these chances of showers and a storm shift further inland over northeast FL, which shift more to the I-75 corridor by early evening.

Temperatures remain well above early July averages. Highs will reach the mid-to-upper 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s coastal. Peak heat indices of 100-107 degrees are expected so remaining below heat advisory conditions. Overnight lows in the mid-70s inland and upper 70s near the coast/St. Johns River will provide little recovery, with some patchy fog inland areas by early Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Afternoon thunderstorms focused over inland Northeast Florida. - Elevated Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

Prevailing flow will shift about to become more out of the southwest by Sunday with diurnal showers and storms becoming more widespread as the weekend progresses, with area-wide developments and a higher chance for dense convection occurring over north central Florida and for areas along and south of the I-10 corridor. PWAT values will increase this weekend with PWAT values ranging upwards of 2 to 2.5 inches, resulting in some stronger storms being capable of producing heavy rainfall capable of localized flooding. High temperatures for the holiday weekend will be in the mid to upper 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s for areas nearer to the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s for areas along the shoreline and near the St Johns River. Heat index values will rise up to over 100 with a potential for Heat Advisory conditions on Friday and Saturday.

An elevated rip current risk will continue at area beaches through the period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Storm Chances Continue thru Next Week - Above Average Temperatures with High Heat Index Values

The daytime sea breeze will be pinned closer to the coast through midweek as prevailing flow continues to be mainly out of the more out of the south and southwest while high pressure ridging extends over the Florida peninsula from out of the east. Daily bouts of convection will continue through the extended period with PWAT values over northeast Florida measuring consistently above 2 inches with stronger storm developments expected near outflow boundaries and along areas of convergence. Temperatures will remain above average through the middle of next week with daily max temps rising into the mid 90s. Heat index values will rise up to over 100 into midweek next week with a potential for Heat Advisory conditions through the period.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions continue at 06z with developing chances of lower vsby and possibly some low stratus for inland areas through this morning. MVFR conditions may be near or at VQQ and GNV over the next few hours. May need to bring one or both of these sites down to IFR or less based on soundings and HREF guidance and monitor JAX terminal for brief low stratus through 12z. Otherwise, a few showers remain possible over the Atlantic Coastal waters and may come ashore and develop from 11z through 16z and enough to warrant VCSH and/or PROB30 groups at the coastal terminals. The chances for showers or a storm will decrease by about 19z-20z for the coastal areas, but then expected to increase at GNV through 00z Saturday. Sfc winds will be light east to northeast or near calm from 06z through 13z/14z, and then by the afternoon become northeast to east at 8-12 kt for the coastal TAFs and then 5-10 kt for GNV terminal.

MARINE

Easterly continues today with high pressure northeast of the region and a trough axis extending across central Florida. Passing coastal showers will continue today. High pressure builds across central and south Florida this weekend into early next week with a transition to south to southwest flow over the local waters and higher afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances over the local waters. Nightly wind surges return with near exercise caution levels developing by Sunday night.

Rip Currents:

Local buoys show 2.5-3 ft at 2 AM, with Wed-Thu showing about of 2-3+ ft surf/seas. For today, onshore flow increasing up to 10-15 mph, combined with surf up to 2-3 ft suggest enhanced rip current risk. Given the increased attendance at the beach for the holiday weekend, and the likely risk of formed sandbars and low midday tide, will opt for a high risk for today for the northeast FL coast. Over southeast GA beaches, surf looks lower compared to northeast FL with buoy 41008 report at 2 ft recently. By Saturday, surf will decrease so anticipate overall lower risk of rip currents.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers and storms will build in this afternoon with the majority of the convection occurring over north central Florida and for areas along and south of the I-10 corridor. Onshore easterly winds will build with daytime heating allowing the breezy diurnal sea breeze to reach further inland, becoming light and variable overnight. More widespread daytime storms are anticipated for Saturday and Sunday with developments being most heavily concentrated over north central Florida.

Fog Potential: Patchy fog developments are expected over inland areas overnight and then dispersing before mid-morning. Any stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, torrential rainfall, and erratic wind gusts during the afternoon and evening.

HYDROLOGY

Satilla River at Atkinson will remain in Minor Flood through the Sunday and is forecast to lower into action stage Sunday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 96 73 98 76 / 10 0 10 0 SSI 90 79 92 79 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 92 74 96 77 / 20 10 30 0 SGJ 90 76 92 77 / 30 0 30 10 GNV 95 74 95 74 / 40 20 50 20 OCF 94 75 93 75 / 50 30 60 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.