textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches this Weekend. Moderate Risk at Southeast GA beaches

- Areas of Dense Fog again late Tonight / Monday Morning. Visibilities Less Than Mile at Times

- Strong Cold Frontal Passage expected Thursday/Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected over marine waters. Patchy frost possible inland SE GA this weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Areas of dense fog possible this morning and again late tonight

- Elevated risk of rip currents at local beaches

Weak high pressure pattern will remain in place through tonight with a weak coastal trough over the offshore Atlantic Coastal waters. Dry conditions dominate with slightly above normal daytime highs and slightly below normal overnight lows. The weak pressure pattern will support near calm winds at night and light and variable winds during the daytime with a weak east coast sea breeze pushing inland. Only expect periods of high clouds at times with some scattered diurnal Cumulus clouds during the afternoon hours.

Main weather impact will be dense fog potential, mainly over inland areas, but the higher dew point temps will support some fog along the Atlantic Coastal counties/I-95 corridor as well. Another round of locally dense fog is expected to develop towards sunrise this morning with Dense Fog Advisories possible. This set-up is expected once again late tonight/sunrise Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy Fog Early Tuesday morning

- Potential for isolated to scattered showers and possible storms on Wednesday

Initially dry weather conditions on Tuesday with chances for isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms increasing on Wednesday over northeast Florida, south of the I-10 corridor, as high pressure lifts towards the north, shifting the prevailing flow to become more out of the southwest, and short wave instability passes over the forecast area ahead of the approaching cold front pressing in from out of the northwest. Early morning fog developments are expected over inland areas on Tuesday. High temperatures through midweek will rise up into the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 50s for southeast Georgia and in ranging between the mid 50s and lower 60s for northeast Florida, with min temps in the lower to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy conditions by end the week and into the weekend.

- Turning more cooler Friday through the weekend. Patchy Frost Possible inland southeast GA This Weekend

- Small Craft Advisory Likely Over Area Waters Beginning Late Thursday

Southern stream shortwave will pass west-east over the area Wednesday, but strong shortwave troughs will help amplify a large trough over the eastern CONUS from Thursday into Friday night before beginning to lift out gradually during the weekend. There are some slight chances, about 10-20 percent, for showers on Wednesday into Thursday as PWAT values rise slightly prior to a strong cold frontal passage on Thursday. Breezy westerly winds on Thursday become breezy northwest on Friday and Saturday. Probable wind gusts look to be around 30-35 mph for Friday and Saturday, per NBM guidance and GFS soundings.

Clearing skies and dry weather will be in place by the weekend as high pressure and cold dry air settles in over the forecast area.

Temperatures will be near and slightly above the seasonal average for midweek, but dropping to be below average (and coolest of the season so far), by the end of the week and into the weekend. Coldest day looks to be Saturday with highs around 60 degrees. With lows in 35-40 degree range for inland southeast GA Saturday morning and Sunday morning, patchy frost will be possible, especially in wind sheltered areas. Widespread wind chills are forecast in the 30s for both Saturday morning and Sunday morning as well.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Prevailing MVFR/IFR fog develops after 08Z with restrictions for LIFR/VLIFR through 12Z, then fog lifting to MVFR 13-14Z, then VFR after 14Z. Light northwest winds and mostly clear skies expected late Monday morning into early afternoon. Another round of low clouds and stratus can be expected late in the TAF period, but will not likely need to be added until the next TAF package.

MARINE

Seas will remain elevated, but just below Caution levels for the offshore waters Today. High pressure will then weaken over the southeastern states by Tuesday, allowing seas to subside. Strong cold frontal passage on Thursday will bring offshore flow and Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will continue on Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents:

High risk of Rip Currents Today for northeast Florida beaches, with moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches due to lingering long period swells impacting the local beaches along with onshore flow. Light winds and decreasing swells will keep Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches on Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

LOW MIN RH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND SOUTHEAST GA - This Afternoon

Conditions will continue to be dry through into the beginning of the week with mostly light winds, except for breezy northeast winds building along the coastal areas due to the sea breeze. Due to the lighter winds - both at the surface and the transport wind - poor dispersions are likely for today.

Though afternoon humidities will trend lower today and Tuesday, critical humidity is unlikely through at least mid week. After a brief rebound in temperatures and humidity through the middle of next week, another strong cold front will push through the area Friday bringing chilly conditions and breezy winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog will develop area-wide this morning. Patchy fog possible early Tuesday morning, mainly over northeast FL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 79 45 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 76 56 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 80 53 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 78 58 79 63 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 82 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 82 56 82 63 / 0 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.