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KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong Cold Front Passage Late Thursday. Small Craft Advisory Conditions Likely from Thursday Afternoon. Patchy Frost Possible Across Inland Southeast GA on Sat-Sun

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Mild temperatures with a chance of showers today

Weak frontal boundary will push across the region today. The first surge of moisture will be across NE FL this morning with a chance of showers, mainly south of the I-10 corridor. The next surge of moisture will push across SE GA this afternoon with a chance of showers there as well, with only a slight chance of showers along the I-10 corridor through this evening. The increasing cloud cover this morning should limit fog formation to only patchy/areas over inland areas, with lows generally in the 50s/lower 60s. Partly to Mostly cloudy skies expected today with west winds increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 to 25 mph this afternoon and this mixing along with some periods of filtered sunshine should still be able to push Max Temps into the upper 70s/near 80F for most areas as the offshore flow pushes the mild temps all the way to the Atlantic beaches. Any frontal shower activity should end around sunset this evening with partial clearing of skies across SE GA, but some lingering mostly cloudy skies across NE FL. Mild temps will continue with lows generally in the 50s as west winds remain elevated in the 5-10 mph ahead of the next stronger frontal boundary on tap for Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights (Thursday & Friday):

- Breezy Westerly Winds Thursday. - Wind Chills in the 30s Saturday Morning

An intensifying surface low centered over the mid-Atlantic will shift eastward dragging its associated cold front across the SE US on Thursday. The response to the low to the north will be a tightening local gradient resulting in breezy westerly winds with gusts around 15-25 mph. Drier air builds back in ahead of the front lowering PWATs to below an inch allowing for a dry frontal passage. Around seasonable highs in the 70s to around 80 on Thursday quickly drop Thursday night as the front shifts south into central FL. Cold and breezy NW winds develop in the wake of the front with lows Friday morning in the 40s across SE GA and Suwannee Valley to the low-mid 50s elsewhere. Breezy and cold northwest winds continue Friday in the wake of the front draped across central FL. Friday highs will only top out in the 60s. On Friday night, another dry cold front slides offshore of the southeast Atlantic coast reinforcing the cold airmass and keeping winds elevated. This will lead to wind chills dropping into the 30s Saturday morning for much of the area.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Saturday through Tuesday

Main Highlights This Period:

- Much cooler & drier this weekend - Inland Frost Potential Southeast GA/Suwannee Valley Sunday Morning

Cooler and drier conditions prevail this weekend as cold Canadian high pressure ridging builds down into the SE US. Saturday highs will only warm to the upper 50s to low 60s. With calm winds and mostly clear skies, overnight lows plummet into the mid/upper 30s for inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley Sunday morning, with 40s elsewhere. Sunday morning could be the first inland frost of the season for inland southeast GA and Suwannee Valley. High pressure will then shift southeastward into the Great Lakes region Sunday into early next week resulting in gradual warming and breezy northeasterly winds. Rain chances will begin to increase next week as the southern stream begins to reengage allowing shortwaves to track across the Gulf and across Florida.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

VFR cigs expected through the period with moderate to high confidence cigs down to as low as 8000-12000 ft through Wednesday. From 06z to 14z Wednesday, a chance of MVFR cigs at about 20-30 percent for all the northeast FL TAFs, but for now showing scattered decks around 3000-4000 ft. A few sprinkles possible around GNV and SGJ late tonight but no cig or vsby restrictions are anticipated at this time. Additional isolated showers possible across southeast GA, late Wednesday but unlikely to cause flight issues at JAX or SSI terminals through late in the TAF period. Likely to be too much cloud cover to favor fog formation overnight but surface wind will be near calm. Westerly surface winds will develop after sunrise, with sustained speeds increasing to around 8-10 knots towards 14Z Wednesday. Winds decrease after sunset Wednesday evening, with VFR conds continuing.

MARINE

Weak frontal boundary crosses the local waters today with a shift to offshore winds and bringing a low chance of showers. Westerly winds increase Thursday ahead of a cold front. This strong cold front will cross the waters Thursday night, bringing strong northwest winds and building seas through Saturday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop by Thursday evening in association with the strong front, with advisory conditions lasting through at least Saturday morning over the local waters. Winds and seas will briefly subside on Saturday as surface high pressure builds into the region, before breezy northeast winds develop Sunday as another high builds from the north.

Rip Currents: A lingering long period east-northeasterly ocean swell will keep a moderate risk in place at all area beaches Today. Strong offshore winds from Thursday through Saturday should yield a low risk. Breezy northeasterly winds developing by Sunday will likely create a moderate risk.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Daytime Dispersions Se Ga Thursday And Friday

Dry conditions and light westerly winds persist today, with poor to fair daytime dispersions. Min RHs this afternoon will drop into the upper 20s to upper 30s for areas along and north of the I-10 corridor. A few showers will pass through north-central FL this morning with another round of light showers moving through mainly southeast GA this afternoon. A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night bringing breezy westerly winds ahead of it and gusty northwesterly winds behind it. These breezy winds will lead to very good to high dispersions Thursday and Friday. The cold air in the wake of the front will plunge into the area Friday and through the weekend and may lead to patchy frost for the Suwannee Valley and inland Southeast GA Saturday night/Sunday morning. Next chance for meaningful rain isn't expected until next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: No significant fog expected through the weekend. Patchy Frost possible this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 78 54 77 46 / 40 10 0 0 SSI 77 59 78 52 / 20 10 0 0 JAX 80 57 78 51 / 20 10 0 0 SGJ 80 59 78 54 / 20 20 0 0 GNV 80 57 78 51 / 20 20 0 0 OCF 80 58 79 52 / 30 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.