textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Late Morning and Early Afternoon Showers and Thunderstorms on. Hazards: Wind Gusts of 30-50 mph, Lightning & Heavy Downpours

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Wed - Sun. Summertime Heat & Humidity Returns Late this Week & into Upcoming Weekend

UPDATE...through Tonight

Late morning and early afternoon moderately strong squall has vacated the region, leaving residual trailing stratus across most of NE FL through the late afternoon and into the early evening. This stratus will continue to fade into the evening. Despite convection developing to our north and south at this hour, the anvil-relative flow will keep the light "blow-off" stratiform rain from pushing back into our area through the evening - dry conditions are expected throughout this evening.

Due to the early timed convection, temperatures across NE FL were cooled to the mid and upper 70s this afternoon and may a warm a few degrees possibly back towards the low 80s if clouds clear but generally a mild evening is expected. Warmer conditions persist where less shower and thunderstorm coverage occurred in southeast GA. There temps currently in the mid/upper 80s will cool to the low/mid 70s overnight.

Give the broad anticyclonic wave break pattern taking place across north America, the local flow pattern will remain in a prevailing westerly which will send sheared vorticity lobes across the region overnight and into Tuesday as the compact upper wave to the northwest retrogrades farther west. The first of the vorticity ripples will push across the area during the early morning hours tomorrow, generating a field of showers across the Suwannee Valle which will gradually track eastward through the morning hours. Not an exact carbon copy of today, but it will be similar in regards to convective timing.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR skies and light southwesterly flow will trend at or below 5 knots tonight. There could be some shallow ground fog but this will be localized, not widespread. Tuesday will be initially VFR but showers may push into KGNV around 12z and then continue eastward, reaching the I-95 corridor as early as 15z. Confidence is only moderate with the potential for thunderstorms tomorrow as early morning showers and lingering cloud cover into the afternoon may keep the region from sufficiently destabilizing. However, if adequate heating occurs or showers are slowly than forecast, thunderstorms are likely to develop at area terminals during the 16z- 21z window.

MARINE

The region will be between a weakening frontal boundary just to the north, and a ridge of high pressure to the south this week.

Rip Currents:

Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights will keep the rip current risk low at area beaches throughout this week.

FIRE WEATHER

The region will be between high pressure to the south and a gradually weakening frontal zone to the north this week. While daily thunderstorm chances are forecast, above average chances can be expected early in the week. Temperatures will be above average, with a trend upward later in the week.

Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 87 71 89 / 20 70 40 50 SSI 76 90 75 92 / 10 70 30 50 JAX 73 90 73 93 / 10 70 30 50 SGJ 74 91 75 93 / 10 70 20 50 GNV 73 90 72 93 / 30 70 20 40 OCF 75 91 74 93 / 20 60 20 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.