textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River

- Inland Late Night & Morning Fog Wednesday & Thursday Mornings

- Local Nor'easter Conditions Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions, High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Periods of Locally Heavy Rainfall at Coast Possible. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Dense fog possible tonight for portions of southeast Georgia and inland northeast Florida

Dry air remains over the area, with GOES derived precipitable water analysis showing PWATs around 0.6-1.0 inches, leaving clear skies and warm temperatures. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s inland, and lower 80s along the east coast as light onshore winds continue. Tonight, lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s inland, and upper 70s to low 70s along the coast and St. Johns river basin area. Chances for fog tonight have been steadily increasing, with models showing the highest potential for dense fog generally east of Waycross in southeast Georgia, and also for interior northeast Florida through sunrise.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Late Night/Early morning dense fog potential over inland areas

A broad ridge of surface high pressure will prevail across the area this period, with an upper ridge overhead as well. Subsidence under the high pressure will result in dry weather this period, with mainly clear skies. Temperatures will trend above average this period. Main impacts will be late night/early morning dense fog potential, mainly over inland areas. Dense fog advisories will be possible both nights, mainly in the 4am-10am time frame.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Saturday through Tuesday

High pressure will move east and weaken Friday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Precipitation chances will increase across north central FL as moisture pools ahead of the advancing front.

The cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night and Saturday, with strong high pressure building from the northwest. A surge of winds from the northeast will move down the coast following the frontal passage.

High pressure will build more toward the north then northeast Sunday into Monday. Elevated onshore winds will continue Sunday through Tuesday. High Risk of rip currents, along with high surf potential will likely lead to periods of minor tidal flooding through early next week. Minor to Moderate beach erosion is expected as well due to weakened state of the local beaches due to the last Nor'Easter event last week.

The greatest rainfall potential this period will be near the Atlantic coastal areas of NE Florida, beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday. Flooding potential will be highest along the Duval, St. Johns and Flagler coastlines and down the St. Johns River Basin, mainly during times of high tide when combined with locally heavy rain bands that may stall across the region from Saturday through Tuesday.

Low temperatures will trend near to a little above average this period, with highs above through Friday, then below average.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with northeast wind around 5-10 knots. Winds will drop off and become more mild and variable after around 23z. Early morning fog is likely at all sites other than SGJ Wednesday morning, with best chances for IFR to LIFR conditions at SSI, JAX, VQQ, and GNV.

MARINE

A high pressure system over the southeast states will slowly move east, and push well offshore by Thursday night and Friday. A strong cold front will cross the local waters late Friday night through Saturday morning, followed by building high pressure well to the north. Lighter winds and seas will continue through at least Thursday. Deteriorating marine conditions expected Friday night and into the weekend with Small Craft Advisories likely and potential for Gale conditions.

Rip Currents: Breezy offshore winds will keep the risk low at all area beaches today. Developing northeasterly winds will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches from Tuesday through Thursday, while low surf heights keep the risk generally low at the southeast GA beaches. Rough surf and a high rip current risk develops this weekend as strong northeasterly winds develop.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will prevail across the area through Friday with warm and dry conditions. Light and variable winds are expected with an East Coast sea breeze pushing inland each afternoon. Min RH's will fall into the 30 to 40 percent range across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley each afternoon. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night, with a period of elevated onshore winds beginning this weekend and lasting into early next week. Any significant rainfall expected this weekend into early next week will mainly be focused along the NE Florida coastal areas and St. Johns River Basins.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is expected during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required the next few mornings.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 62 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 82 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 64 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 69 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 63 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 65 87 66 87 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.