textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning Dense Fog Potential through Wednesday

- Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas

UPDATE

Only adjustments were to include widespread dense fog conditions over inland areas west of I-95 from US-17 westward as cool northeast flow behind a cold front sinking into central FL provides low level moisture and under clear skies and calm winds away from the coast will setup areas of fog becoming widespread and dense fog Advisory conditions still seem on track late tonight as visibility may lower to a quarter mile or less for inland locations starting across SE GA and developing into inland NE FL. Give yourself extra time on the roads and use your low beam headlights if you plan on traveling early Monday morning. Patchy fog has been placed along the coast starting around 4-5AM as northeast winds 4-8 mph delay significant fog from the coast until the predawn hours. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s over SE GA and upper 50s over NE FL with low 60s along the coast.

Monday will be dry with northeast winds turning easterly 10-15 mph at the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph and 5-10 mph inland in the afternoon as high pressure to the north moves more NNE of the area to the Mid Atlantic coast. Clockwise flow will produce some Atlantic stratocumulus clouds shifting into the waters and near the coast in the afternoon and a quick shower or two may drift onshore before sunset. Otherwise highs will be above normal in the upper 70s over inland SE GA and the lower 80s over inland NE FL west of the St Johns river with cooler mid 70s along the coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

This afternoon, weak frontal boundary across the central parts of the area with sufficient moisture for plenty of cumulus clouds over northeast FL. Multiple runs of the HRRR and other guidance suggest isolated to potentially scattered showers forming over inland northeast FL along and ahead of the front, with main forcing low level convergence with a weak area of low pres forming around Lake City. Model sounding showed MLCAPE of about 1200 J/kg this afternoon, but given the amount of dry air aloft and relatively weak dynamic forcing, chance of a thunderstorms seems less than about 10 percent. Max temps into the upper 70s to lower 80s today with possible record at CRG where the current record is 83 in 2013. Low level winds turn to the northeast along the coast this afternoon which will likely re-prime portions of the area for moisture and thereby potential fog development later tonight.

For tonight, the front will move south of the area and high pressure will build to the north. We should see the surface winds decrease from the northeast to 5 mph or less. Skies will be mostly clear and with the dry air aloft and the light to calm winds, fog potential will increase after midnight. For the inland areas, at least areas of fog are expected through sunrise Monday Morning, with dense fog advisories possible once again. Low temps in the lower 50s across inland SE GA and mid/upper 50s across inland NE FL and lower 60s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure builds over the eastern seaboard of the CONUS at the start of the new week as the frontal boundary from Sunday will be south of the local area. Northeasterly flow develops across coastal locations with around 10 to 15 mph. Along inland locations easterly flow will be present with winds around 5 to 10 mph, with decreasing winds the further away from the east coast. Very low chances of showers across north central FL through the day as dry air continues to filter in from the northwest. Daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, lower temps along coastal locations in the mid 70s. By the overnight hours Lows will dip to the upper 50s across inland locations and the lower 60s along the coast. Some offshore showers may be possible during the overnight hours along the frontal boundary.

By Tuesday, the high pressure to the north will begin to shift towards the Atlantic as another frontal boundary will begin to move towards the SE CONUS, nearing SE GA by the overnight hours. The departing high pressure will bring about a shift in the wind flow from northeasterly to a more southeast-southerly flow and then finally southwesterly by Tuesday night. A bit warmer temperatures on Tuesday as winds shift to become southerly. Daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s over inland locations with upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be similar to Monday night, with upper 50s for inland locations and lower 60s along the coast.

Weakening winds and low level moisture will likely see fog develop over inland locations during the early hours each morning. The developing southwesterly flow Tuesday evening will likely bring the higher chances of fog development over NE FL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A cold front will approach the area by Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms may develop ahead and along the front as it enters SE GA and towards the FL/GA state line by the afternoon hours into early evening hours. As much of the area will still be in front of the front on Wednesday, daytime highs will primarily be in the lower to mid 80s, with upper 70s along far inland SE GA. Come Thursday and Friday, temperatures will top out in the 60s with cooler temperatures on Friday as a high pressure and a cold, dry air mass builds in behind the front. Breezier conditions develop on Thursday and Friday as northwesterly winds reach around 10 to 15 mph across inland locations and gusts up to 25-30 mph over the local waters. Overnight lows will dip to near freezing across inland SE GA Thursday night, but frost development will likely be limited due to the light breeze over the area. Overnight lows will 'warm' a bit on Friday night, but still remain in the upper 30s along inland SE GA and the 40s along inland NE FL. Winds will begin shift to become northeasterly to easterly by the upcoming weekend as the high pressure shift away towards the Atlantic. Dry conditions will continue into the start of the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

The 00Z TAF period will begin will VFR conditions with scattered ceilings near 1.0 kft at SSI brushing onshore through 03Z as winds from the northeast off the waters behind the cold front moving into north central FL sinks southward. Later tonight, low stratus and fog developing inland from the coast as winds from the northeast slacken to near calm by 06Z and under clear skies support MVFR fog/IFR ceilings to develop. The low stratus and fog will lower between 07- 09Z from IFR to VLIFR levels at inland sites VQQ, GNV, and even JAX, then shift towards the coast by 09Z-10Z where IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog will be more intermittent as northeast winds continue overnight just under 5 knots.

The fog should begin lifting inland to MVFR levels after 13Z and rise back to VFR by 15Z at all sites. High pressure to the north will shift eastward with winds turning more easterly during in the afternoon 5-8 knots inland/8-10 knots coast with scattered high thin clouds passing in from the west and few low/mid level clouds near 5.0 kft.

SYNOPSIS

A weak frontal boundary will push south across the local waters tonight. High pressure system will then build north of the region tonight into Monday, resulting in breezy onshore winds. The high builds east of the Atlantic coast Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. The front will press south of the local waters Wednesday night into Thursday, trailed by northwest to north winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Monday NE FL Moderate Monday

DISCUSSION

PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 MONDAY AFTERNOON...

AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY...

CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES RESUME OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

Cold front will continue to press towards Northeast Florida this afternoon with northwest winds 5-10 mph as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High pressure will be north of the area Monday and shift off the Mid Atlantic coast by Monday evening, leading to the northeasterly winds turning easterly by the afternoon hours. High pressure will exit northeast of the region Tuesday with a warm front lifting north across the area allowing winds to become southerly, but no rain expected. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and then push through the area late Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and isolated T'storms over Southeast GA, but with swift enough movement to prevent a wetting rainfall. Increasing southwesterly surface and transport winds will produce areas of high daytime dispersions Wednesday.

A much drier airmass arrives for the end of the week as strong high pressure builds in from the northwest that will place critically low Min RH values over the area Thursday and Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Areas of dense fog will develop tonight away from the coast as the cold front slowly shifts south of the area. Patchy fog will remain possible across NE FL both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

SUN 11/23 MON 11/24 TUE 11/25 WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1992 86/2014 85/1992 84/1946 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 83/2013 84/2014 83/1992 83/2020 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 88/1906 86/1948 85/1955 84/1973 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 84/1941 83/1986 83/1986 84/1973

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 52 78 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 74 62 76 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 57 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 78 63 81 / 0 10 10 0 GNV 58 82 58 84 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 60 81 59 84 / 20 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.