textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hot and Humid this Weekend - Peak Heat Index Values: 104-108. High Heat Risk Through The Weekend.

- Afternoon & Evening TStorms Area-Wide this Weekend into Next Week. Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms this afternoon (2 PM 9 PM). Strong Storms with Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Heavy

- Downpours Possible Along the I-95 Corridor

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches This Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Another Hot Day with Heat Index peaking around 102-107 degrees

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms, a few stronger storms possible

The region be between high pressure ridging to the south, and a frontal zone to the north Today. The low level flow will be from the west southwest between these features. The flow will not be particularly strong, so the east coast sea breeze will be able to push just past I95 corridor this afternoon. A combination of diurnal heating, ample moisture, and sea breeze interactions will drive convection this afternoon. With the sea breeze interaction happening along or just west of I95, this area will be where the highest convective chances will be focused.

Temperatures will be above normal. Mixing will allow dewpoints to lower this morning, which is expected to be enough to keep heat index values just below advisory levels.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with a few strong to severe storms possible

- Heat indices values will approach Advisory levels each afternoon

Southwest winds continue through the forecast period, leading to the the Gulf breeze pushing inland each afternoon where it will meet with the Atlantic breeze each afternoon. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the breezes, with the higher focus between US-301 and the I-95 corridor along the mergers of the breezes. Potential hazards for any storms that develop this weekend will be locally heavy downpours (with PWATs ~ 1.8" to 2.2"), frequent lightning, and brief wet downburst wind gusts to 40-50 mph.

Warm temperatures persists through the end of the weekend into next week, with Heat Advisory conditions possible each afternoon. With daytime highs reaching into the mid 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, heat index values will near Heat Advisory criteria. Overnight Lows will dip to the 70s area-wide, warmer Lows near the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day next week, with a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible.

A trough digs south towards the southeastern US into midweek as high pressure sits to the southeast of the area. Southwesterly flow will persist through the upcoming week, continuing to bring tropical moisture into the area. Expect to see scattered to numerous coverage of convective activity due to elevated moisture levels and diurnal heating as the southwesterly flow will allow for the Gulf breeze to push inland during the afternoon hours. By Wednesday, a frontal boundary looks to sink across the SE GA and towards north central FL by Thursday before stalling.

Temperatures are expected to trend above average through Tuesday, but the coolest days of the week will likely be on Tuesday and Wednesday as showers and storms will keep the area from getting to warm.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail this morning. Convection is expected to develop early this afternoon, and continue through the afternoon and evening. Restrictions in and near storms can be expected, along with gusty winds. A few stronger storms are possible. The convection will diminish this evening, with VFR conditions forecast overnight.

MARINE

A lingering trough north of the waters and ridging to the south will continue offshore breezes this morning. There will be a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coastline this afternoon but minimal activity is expected over the open waters. Another front pushes into the southeastern US Sunday night and will stall and eventually dissipate there through the first half of the upcoming week. This will promote nightly southwesterly wind surges to Exercise Caution levels, mainly offshore. Strengthening offshore flow next week will increase chances for afternoon thunderstorms across the coastal waters.

Rip Currents:

Generally low risk of rip currents through the weekend. There will be a slight increase in the risk to a low-end moderate level during the afternoon with the sea breeze, combined with a moderate onshore but low amplitude swell.

FIRE WEATHER

PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS SUNDAY THROUGH - Tuesday, Then Again Thursday And Friday

Westerly winds during the morning hours will shift to become southwesterly by the afternoon hours Today and persist through the weekend and the upcoming week. Scattered showers this morning will increase to numerous with thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours as the sea breezes begin to move inland. MinRH levels will continue to be at Good levels through the upcoming weekend and into next week with the continued advection of tropical moisture over the area. Temperatures will rise into the 90s this weekend. Increasing transport winds on Sunday will bring areas of high dispersions on Sunday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Daily showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 96 77 94 77 / 40 20 50 20 SSI 92 79 94 79 / 60 20 60 30 JAX 97 78 96 78 / 70 20 70 20 SGJ 93 77 95 77 / 60 20 50 20 GNV 95 76 95 76 / 60 30 40 10 OCF 94 76 92 77 / 40 20 20 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.