textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Near Record Warmth This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values Inland Each Day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread

- Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions

UPDATE

Mild conditions this evening and exceptionally quiet weather. Primary concerns tonight will be the predawn fog development, which should be patchy and occasionally dense. There is higher chance for restricted visibility in areas around Gainesville as smoke from a nearby wildfire on SR-26 generates smoke which could mix with fog around day break Thursday. We will monitor for any superfog potential through the night in those areas. Otherwise, low temperatures will favor readings in the mid to upper 50s tonight.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Near record warmth inland areas with highs near 90F

- Elevated wildfire risk

Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues with stacked ridging over the region. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. Near record highs will be possible across inland locations this afternoon with temps in the upper 80s to around 90. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds late tonight will prompt patchy inland fog development over portions of NE FL and SE GA, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-75. Low temps continue in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

- Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist as temperatures near or break record highs on Friday

Warm and dry weather conditions will persist through the end of the week as high pressure extending over the region continues to dominate the weather pattern. High temperatures for the end of the week will reach up into the lower 90s and potentially reach record levels. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Daily patchy to dense fog developments are expected to form during the overnight and early morning hours each day, with a potential for very dense "super fog" to form in the vicinity of smoke and fires.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- The dry and warm weather persist into the weekend. - Morning fog potential to continue each day.

A predominantly dry cold front will move through the forecast area by the beginning of next week, with only a slight chance for showers occurring on Sunday. Onshore flow will be in place before midweek resulting in breezy onshore winds with minimal chances for diurnal isolated precipitation over northeast Florida. Initially above average max temps will drop down to be near and below the seasonal average next week, following the frontal passage.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Predominant VFR conditions are expected through the period, though patchy fog and smoke from nearby wildfire (KGNV) may lead to temporary obscuration through the overnight hours. Easterly winds will ease toward calm through the evening hours, become south- southwesterly around 5 knots Thursday morning 13z/15z and then shift to east-southeasterly during the afternoon hours with the Atlantic sea breeze push.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the the weekend, with the flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. A mostly dry frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with only a few showers and storms. A surge of northeasterly winds develops in the wake of the front Monday into Tuesday bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions with the potential for Gale force gusts.

Rip Currents and Surf:

Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day This Week

High pressure remains over the area, continuing the dry, sunny, and very warm conditions for inland locations through the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Today, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week, with higher dispersions likely to develop this weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 59 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 63 80 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 88 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 59 83 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 55 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 56 88 59 90 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.