textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze & Frost Tonight through Wed Morning. Freeze Waring Tonight through Early Wed Morning For Inland Southeast GA,

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches

- Severe Drought Conditions Expanding Across our Region. Recent Freezes will Result in Drying of Available Fuels. Chances for Beneficial Rainfall Increase this Weekend

- Very low potential for mixed precipitation inland southeast GA over the weekend

UPDATE

Quick update to issue a Frost Advisory around the edges of the Freeze Warning for coastal SE GA and portions of inland NE FL where temps will fall into the 33-36F range for the Frost Advisory along with Areas/Widespread Frost after midnight tonight, while temps of 28-32F are expected in the Freeze Warning. Temps are expected to crash quickly after sunset in the dry air mass under mostly clear skies and winds becoming near calm over inland areas. Some increase in high clouds is expected later tonight, but overall these will remain on the thin side so good radiational cooling conditions are expected through sunrise Wednesday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure over the area will begin to shift towards the east- northeast through the overnight hours into Wednesday. Light to breezy northerly winds Today as the high pressure keeps the local gradient tight. High clouds continue to move across the area through the rest of the day. Daytime highs in the 50s across SE GA and NE FL, with lower 60s across north central FL.

Tonight...Northeasterly winds will begin to weaken during the overnight hours as the high pressure shifts towards the east- northeast. Sub-Freezing conditions develop once again this evening, but not as widespread as last night. Locations across inland SE GA and west of the JAX metro along the I-10 corridor towards the Suwannee Valley, will once again feel temperatures near/below freezing this evening, while locations in north central FL and along the coast will have Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A majority of the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning with this Forecast package. Widespread frost will also be likely as winds begin to drop off during the overnight hours into early Wednesday morning for these locations, with patchy frost possible for those locations bordering the Freeze Warned locations.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

High pressure ridge will dominate the region on Wednesday but a weak inverted trough will exist off the southeast U.S. coast but any showers associated with the trough will be well offshore. A disturbance will move through the region Wednesday into Thursday helping to increase cloudiness over the region. Some increased chance of light rain over the area Wednesday night into Thursday but for now will maintain silent (10 percent) POPs. Temperatures will rise to be above average during this period with daily high temps rising into the 60s to near 70 Wednesday, and 70s for most area on Thursday. Mid 60s may still be realized on Thursday given some northeast flow. Overnight low temperatures will similarly warm with min temps 40-50 deg Wed night and to the mid 40s to the lower 50s by Thursday night. Some patchy fog may develop by Thursday night inland areas.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Strong and cold surface high pressure system around 1045 mb will move into the northern Great Plains and the Great Lakes area Fri into Sat., with a frontal boundary moving into the local area Fri night into Saturday morning. A strong upper level disturbance will move into the SW U.S. over the weekend which will help trigger surface low development in the Gulf. This low pressure system is forecast to track across the northeast Gulf near the FL/GA state line later this weekend, and then move east offshore of the southeast U.S. coast Sunday night into early Monday. Another area of low pressure may develop off the coast Sat night and translate northeastward on Sunday. As far temps, above normal Friday, then start to become below normal from north to south over the weekend and into next week.

Weather impacts expected to develop on Friday with increasing chance of showers for southeast GA and then begin to spread into northeast FL on Saturday as dynamics ahead of the system begin to increase ascent across the area while low level flow is northeasterly. The main sfc low moving east over the Gulf and into north FL (or even south GA) may help shift the initial front back north as a warm front into north central FL on Sunday. Showers/rain should further develop Sunday into Sunday night as a trailing cold front presses down into the region from out of the north. One of the weather concerns is about mixed precipitation for inland southeast GA where some low chance of freezing rain is possible as cold air will reside in place there at times. Latest guidance has backed off on this potential, but we will continue to monitor trends. Model progs and solutions have also varied past 1-2 days, and so there is low confidence on the potential. A lot will depend on the where the surface low pressure system tracks, which also leads to some concerns for t-storm activity over northeast FL. At this time, no t- storms are forecast, but eventually we may need to include isolated t-storm mention on Sunday-Sunday night as instability forecasts have increased. By Monday morning, the surface low should be offshore, based on consensus forecasts, with the trailing cold front into central FL continuing to press south. Overrunning clouds expected Monday with a chilly airmass over the region to start the next week. Another freeze and a hard freeze, for well inland zones, looks likely Monday night as the clouds begin to clear out. Tuesday, mostly clear and high pressure moving into the area but chilly and dry air and another freeze Tue night.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals as High clouds continue to move across the area today. Northwesterly winds across the northern TAF sites will shift to northerly by 00Z, while the other TAF sites will continue to have northerly. Breezy conditions across the area diminish through the overnight hours as winds shift to be from the mainly from the northeast by the 12Z.

MARINE

High pressure over the waters will begin to shift towards the east- northeast by this evening, moving offshore of the Delmarva peninsula by Wednesday morning. Breezy northerly winds and elevated seas for the local waters Today, with winds shifting to northeasterly Tonight. Northeasterly winds will then gradually weaken on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure extends its axis across the southeastern states. A few showers will be possible late this week ahead of a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states on Friday. Chances for showers will then increase this weekend as this frontal boundary moves slowly southward across our local waters, providing for strengthening northeasterly winds on Saturday that will shift to northwesterly on Saturday night as this front shifts south of the northeast Florida waters.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Wednesday NE FL Moderate Wednesday

FIRE WEATHER

LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND PARTS OF THE - Suwannee Valley Area On Wednesday

Dry and unseasonably cool weather will continue rest of today with northerly winds shifting to become more out of the northeast overnight and into Wednesday morning. MinRH values will range within the 20s and 30s rest of today. Another freeze is likely early Wednesday morning, primarily over southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley area. A slight increase in moisture and more cloudiness across the area for Wednesday as low level winds shift to become more northeasterly. Areas of low daytime dispersion are forecast for southeast GA and part of the Suwannee Valley area on Wednesday. Potential for low daytime dispersions to continue through the end of the week.

There is an increased chance of rain during this upcoming weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Freezing and frost conditions expected inland areas early Wednesday morning. A low potential for some patches of fog early Thursday morning and Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 27 64 41 71 / 0 10 10 0 SSI 41 61 49 64 / 0 10 10 0 JAX 35 67 48 72 / 0 10 10 0 SGJ 43 68 52 70 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 35 71 49 76 / 0 10 10 10 OCF 36 73 50 76 / 0 10 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023-024-120-220-322-422-522. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ030-031- 035-124-136-225-232-236-237-425. GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.