textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Wet Pattern Through Tuesday with daily showers and thunderstorms. Main Concerns: Localized Flooding, Gusty Winds up to 40-50 mph, and frequent lightning. Heaviest rainfall will be from the I-10 corridor northward today and into this evening.

- Moderate to high rip current risk Late Tuesday through Thursday

- Small Craft Advisory is likely Tuesday night through Wednesday

UPDATE

Forecast remains on track, with showers and storms expected to increase in coverage later this morning through this evening. Current GOES analysis shows PWATs near 2.0" (increasing further this afternoon) generally I-10 northward, where the highest threat for localized flooding is today. Elevated rain and storm chances also exist near the northeast Florida coast where sea breezes interact due to westerly winds. Storms will linger after sunset for a few hours, with activity largely shifting to stratiform rain towards midnight. Increased cloud cover and precipitation will keep high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s north of I-10, warmer southward where more sunshine will be.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Above average chances for showers and thunderstorms

Frontal boundary will sink from near the GA/FL line Monday afternoon, into central FL by Tuesday night. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will move along this boundary, providing for an above average chance for precipitation this period, especially during the day time hours due to diurnal instability. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances NE FL Wednesday and Thursday

High pressure will sink south into area Wednesday, then build overhead later in the week and into the weekend.

Precipitation chances will linger across NE FL Wednesday into Thursday, due to proximity of the frontal zone. Otherwise, this will largely be a dry period.

Temperatures will trend below normal through much of this period, but return to near seasonal levels Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Brief periods of IFR ceilings may be present this morning. Further destabilization will lead to more shower and developing thunderstorms during the afternoon and so after 17z/18z, strong diurnal heating will prompt showers and storms for all terminals. TEMPO groups for IFR TSRA are in place. Gusty winds may accompany the stronger storms. Expect a chance of thunderstorms after 00z tonight Duval northward as well with some prevailing light areas of rain likely for the first part of the evening hours. After 06Z, MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely at all the sites other than SGJ, with potential for LIFR at SSI early Monday morning.

MARINE

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Sunday through Tuesday evening as a front stalls over our area before a stronger cold front pushes southward across our local waters on Tuesday night. Northeasterly winds will surge in the wake of this frontal passage on Tuesday night as high pressure building over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys wedges down the southeastern seaboard, creating Small Craft Advisory conditions from late Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night throughout our local waters. Breezy onshore winds and elevated seas are expected through Thursday night as high pressure gradually weakens over the southeastern states.

Rip Currents: Generally low-end moderate risk much of today. Rip current risk may begin to rise a little further by Monday. Probably looking at increased risk to moderate and high from Tuesday and into Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Monday Through Thursday

A frontal zone will affect the area through Wednesday, with above average chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build Thursday through Saturday, with a cooler and drier airmass prevailing.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible early each morning. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from Sunday through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 83 69 86 69 / 90 60 20 20 SSI 84 75 86 75 / 80 70 50 20 JAX 87 72 88 73 / 80 70 60 20 SGJ 88 74 90 74 / 80 50 70 20 GNV 89 73 89 73 / 50 20 70 20 OCF 88 75 88 74 / 50 20 70 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.