textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Friday

- Daily chances for mainly afternoon thunderstorms for the latter part of

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Locally dense fog inland from I-10 northward across inland SE GA

- Hot inland with scattered afternoon/evening storms

- Moderate Risk of rip currents at area beaches

Early this morning: Mostly clear skies, light winds and boundary layer cooling into the 60s over inland areas will support patchy to areas of fog, with the best chances for locally dense fog from the I- 10 corridor northward across inland SE GA, and while dense fog advisories are not expected, SPS will likely need to be posted towards sunrise.

Today: High pressure ridge to the Northeast will slide further into the Western Atlantic and allow for the steering flow to become more southerly through the day with some increase in moisture over inland areas with PWATs pushing into the 1.5-1.7 inch range ahead of frontal boundary sliding into the SE US states and stalling NW of the local area. This will allow for the East Coast sea breeze to still push well inland and meet the Gulf Coast sea breeze over inland areas to the west of the 301 corridor and best chances for scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening along the I- 75 corridor northward across inland SE GA. A few storms may become strong with gusty winds to 40-50 mph. Max temps will reach into the lower to middle 90s inland with Heat Indices approaching 100F prior to convection starting this afternoon. Max temps holding in the 80s from the I-95 corridor eastward to the Atlantic beaches.

Tonight: Isolated evening storms inland fade and drift back towards the Atlantic Coast after sunset with all convection done by midnight. Fair skies overnight with some cloud cover keeping temps slightly milder in the upper 60s inland and lower/middle 70s along the Atlantic Coast, along with lower chances of fog formation, except in any areas that receive rainfall later on today.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily thunderstorms each afternoon west of I-95.

Pattern of diurnal showers and storms will continue with convection becoming less inhibited on Friday as the influence of high pressure ridging over the forecast area diminishes and prevailing flow shifts to become more southerly, bringing in more moist conditions with PWAT values potentially rising to levels between 1.8 and 2 inches by Saturday. Temperatures will be well above average through the end of the week and into the weekend with daily max temps reaching up into the lower to mid 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

- Hot temperatures continue through the weekend

- Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week.

PWATs continue to increase with southerly flow this weekend, increasing precipitation chances area-wide Saturday and Sunday, but especially over inland southeast GA Saturday. Isolated to scattered storm chances continue into midweek for inland areas, primarily in the afternoons and evenings. Hot temperatures will persist during this period, inland highs in the low 90s, and east coast highs in the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

After the early morning fog lifts, VFR conditions will become established as we head into the afternoon hours. Chances of rainfall remains low later during the TAF period, but have left mention of VCSH/VCTS for more inland sites of VQQ/GNV as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland during the 20Z-24Z time frame.

MARINE

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast this week and through the weekend. Mainly southeast flow will continue through the period with a daily sea breeze near the Atlantic Coast. Winds may meet small craft exercise caution criteria in the late afternoon and evening from Friday through Monday.

Rip Currents:

Moderate risk of rip current continues today and likely to stay that way into Friday with surf of about 2-3 ft. Longshore current should be directed northward. There may be a bump up in the surf going into the holiday weekend that may necessitate High Risk. Surf averaging around 3 feet to possible 4 ft, mainly for northeast FL this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon through the weekend. Persistent onshore flow will allow moisture to continue filtering into the area, leading to MinRH values remaining above critical levels. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. Patchy fog early this morning for inland locations, with locally dense fog possible inland southeast GA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 93 69 91 70 / 30 20 80 50 SSI 87 74 88 78 / 10 10 20 30 JAX 91 72 92 75 / 20 10 30 20 SGJ 89 73 90 76 / 10 10 20 10 GNV 94 72 94 73 / 40 30 40 20 OCF 94 71 93 74 / 40 30 30 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.