textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near Record Highs Today

- Patchy Dense Fog NE FL Sunday Morning

- Small Craft Advisory Sunday to Monday Morning

- Winter Returns Next Week. Freeze Watch Inland SE GA Sunday Night Monday Morning. Inland Freeze I-10 northward and Widespread Frost Monday Night

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Mid to upper level pattern features ridging across south FL into the Bahamas while a strong shortwave centered near Duluth is diving southeastward across the upper Midwest and deepening a longwave trough that extends south along the MS river valley. At the surface, a strong cold front is advancing eastward across the deep south as waves of low pressure move east to northeast over the TN valley into the southern appalachians with an arctic cold front moving southeast through the upper MS Valley towards Lake Michigan.

Ahead of the aforementioned cold front, the line of convection is moving east along the central Gulf coast into AL and western GA Surface high pressure axis extending over NE FL from the Atlantic is supplying southerly flow winds well ahead of the front and it's associated convection with breezy winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph over our area, preventing Marine fog from developing today. The line will weaken gradually with eastward extent with T'storms lifting well north of the area into north GA and upstate SC. Locally, enough subsidence under the influence of remaining high pressure will keep skies mostly sunny through sunset. Abundant sunshine and good mixing of winds will promote temperatures in the low/mid 80s inland today, likely tying or breaking daily record high values across our area (see climate section). Tonight, Skies will turn mostly cloudy after midnight except near the NE FL coast where skies will stay mostly clear until dawn. Scattered light showers will move along and ahead of the cold front into inland SE GA after midnight and then the SE GA coast and Suwannee Valley by sunrise Sunday. Lows will be well above normal as the front will lag enough to keep lows in the upper 50s NW of Waycross and the low 60s over remaining SE GA and into NE FL. Winds from the southwest will shift more westerly after midnight as showers move through, then northwesterly by the predawn morning hours behind the front.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A cold front will move through the region on Sunday, with high pressure building into the region behind the front.

A cold front pushes through the region on Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to move ahead of the boundary as it pushes south and out of the region, with most showers clearing by the afternoon hours. Cooler air advects into the region behind the front, which will bring the warmest temperatures during the early part of the day on Sunday as the region cools down through the afternoon hours. Daytime highs will be about 20 degrees cooler than Saturday, with most locations only reaching into the 60s, with warmer temperatures along the southern portions of the region in the lower 70s. High pressure builds into the region behind the front through the rest of the forecast period. By Sunday evening, a return of near freezing temperatures will likely bring a light inland freeze across SE GA, but frost formation will likely be limited as winds will be a bit too windy. Lows in the lower 30s across inland SE GA and in the upper 30s to mid 40s along the coast and NE FL.

Cooler and drier conditions on Monday with the high pressure continuing to build overhead through the day. Highs will be span in the lower to upper 50s across SE GA and the upper 50s to mid 60s across NE FL. By the overnight hours, temperatures will be sub- freezing for locations across inland SE GA with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s, setting up the potential for another freeze event during the overnight hours into Tuesday morning. With calm to light winds, frost formation will likely occur over these locations as well. For NE FL, coldest temperatures will be over locations in the Suwannee Valley Region and along the I-10 corridor to the west of the JAX metro. Lows will range in the mid 30s to upper 40s for NE FL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure over the region will begin to weaken as it shifts towards the Atlantic Tuesday evening. Temperatures will warm a bit by midweek, but will still remain on the cool side as highs will be in the 60s through midweek. The next chance of showers will be midweek as low pressure over the eastern waters of the Gulf push towards the FL peninsula ahead of the next cold front, which will push into the region Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Behind the front, colder temperatures return to the area, which will likely bring about another round of sub-freezing temperatures across SE GA and southward into NE FL for locations west of the St. Johns River Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front Thursday night into Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

The TAF period will begin with prevailing VFR conditions with south to southwesterly winds 10-12 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots. Few cumulus clouds will be 3.5-5.0 kft this afternoon. Not expecting sea fog to redevelop near SSI due to the breezy southerly winds. Tonight a cold front will enter the area and bring isolated to scattered showers into SSI and duval county terminals by 12Z, then onto GNV and SGJ through 14Z. Ahead of the front, IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility levels will develop between 06Z-08Z at GNV, VQQ with restrictions for LIFR fog 08-12Z. Conditions will improve to MVFR after 13Z as the front moves through with light showers. Behind the front, winds will shift northwesterly 10-15 knots with gusts 18-22 knots. VFR conditions prevail by 17-18Z Sunday.

MARINE

High pressure shifts across south Florida today as a cold front approaches from the west. Southerly winds increase this afternoon as the front approaches. The front will move across the local waters tonight, with a chance of passing showers. Stronger northwest winds develop Sunday with Small Craft Advisory conditions through early Monday, with occasional gusts near Gale Force. Winds and seas fall below Advisory levels late Monday as high pressure builds north of the region through Tuesday. This high weakens Wednesday as the next frontal system approaches.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Today and Sunday NE FL Moderate Today and Sunday

FIRE WEATHER

-Inland MinRH levels at or below 30 percent north of I10 Sunday through Tuesday -Areas of high dispersions each afternoon through Sunday -Areas of low dispersions Tuesday and Wednesday

High pressure will begin to move away to the east-northeast Tonight as a cold front moves into the area. Chances of showers increase through the overnight hours and continue into the morning hours on Sunday. Southwesterly winds Tonight shift to become northwesterly by Sunday morning, with winds remaining breezy through the afternoon hours. This will allow for high dispersions to persist on Sunday. Dry and cold air builds in behind the front, bringing lower minRH values below 30% to the area through Sunday. Winds begin to lessen by Tuesday, which will bring low dispersions for much of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. A wave of low pressure will move northeast across central FL Wednesday into Thursday bringing another chance for showers to the local area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Inland Freeze potential Sunday night with an inland freeze and frost inland Monday night.

CLIMATE

Record highs were set yesterday, Jan 9th, at both Jacksonville (JAX) and Gainesville (GNV) which reached 83 degrees. Alma (AMG) also set a new record high of 80.

Today, temperatures are expected to be near to just above yesterday's values as SSW flow develops with another day of near record highs and near record high minimum temperatures.

Below are current records for climate sites and the year in which the record occurred.

Record High Temperatures:

January 10: KJAX: 82/1957 KGNV: 85/1937 KAMG: 80/1949 KCRG: 79/2014

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

January 10: KJAX: 64/1946 KGNV: 64/2013 KCRG: 65/2020

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 83 57 62 29 / 0 20 10 0 SSI 76 61 65 39 / 0 20 20 0 JAX 84 62 68 37 / 0 10 30 0 SGJ 80 62 69 46 / 0 0 30 0 GNV 83 62 69 37 / 0 10 30 0 OCF 83 61 70 38 / 0 0 30 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151-152-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ470-472-474.