textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today and Likely through the

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this Morning, Increasing to Scattered Mainly

- West of US 301 this Afternoon/Evening

- Locally Dense Morning Fog Inland Today through Sunday

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sunday Afternoon through Monday

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches Today.

- Isolated T'Storms this Morning Becoming Scattered this Afternoon for Inland Areas West of US-301. Main hazards: Lightning and Localized Heavy Rain.

- Patchy inland fog this morning and again early Saturday for primarily inland locations.

An influx of moisture on a southerly flow in the mid levels has pumped precipitable water values above the 75th percentile and that is likely to push above the 1.5" mark later this morning as moisture advection continues. This moisture coupled with a subtle easterly wave may ignite showers by sunrise this morning as it rotates northward. Increasing shower coverage from scattered to numerous is anticipated west of the I-95 corridor by this afternoon as the early Atlantic sea breeze. With the ongoing moisture flux, modest instability will develop with slight cooling and steepening lapse rates aloft, supporting a few stronger storms capable during the late afternoon 3-6 PM as more frequent interactions between the sea breeze and convective outflows occur. Lightning and localized heavy rainfall with 2-3"+ possible across the interior counties of SE GA and along the I-75 corridor / Suwannee River Valley in NE FL. Convective trends will begin to fade with the loss of heating this evening between 8-10 pm. Where heavier rainfall occurs will have a better chance at fog development tonight and based on the forecast QPF footprint, the highest probs for any localized dense fog would be inland SE GA and portions of the Suwannee Valley where surface winds are likely to trend calm after midnight.

The southeasterly flow and sea breeze will again keep the beach communities cooler this afternoon while inland areas warm into the mid to upper 80s once again. Due to the elevated dewpoints, lows will be well above normal reading in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm potential Sunday Afternoon-Night

-Near Record Highs Possible Sunday

Surface high pressure centered near Bermuda shifts further into the Atlantic this weekend as a cold front moves through the SE US. Slightly drier air will advect in from the SSE on Saturday resulting in more inhibited chances for precipitation. Warm, generally southerly flow will increase temperatures to above seasonable to near record with highs in the 80s, potentially 90 in north-central FL on Sunday. Flow shifts to SW on Sunday ahead of the front on Sunday. Timing of the front has slowed down slightly allowing for convection to develop along the sea breezes with a merger along the I-95 corridor late Sunday afternoon. Upper support for the cold front wanes as it approaches the area Sunday night lowering rain chances as it enters SE GA. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to lower 60s. Patchy to areas of locally dense inland fog will be possible each morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm potential Monday Afternoon

Showers continue on Monday as the frontal boundary lingers over north-central FL. A few embedded thunderstorms will develop mainly in NE FL due to the proximity to the boundary. A stronger upper level shortwave will cross over the SE US and shift the front further southward on Tuesday. Uncertainty lies on timing and how far south the boundary shifts early next week. If the boundary remains further north, more beneficial rainfall will spread to our exceptional to extreme drought area. If the boundary shifts further south into central/south FL, rain chances will lower area-wide and be limited to north-central FL. Strong high pressure then builds following the front and will wedge down the southeastern seaboard Tuesday into Thursday, likely resulting in a surge of strong northeasterly winds. Temperatures will drop to be near and just below the seasonal average for next week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to persist through today and tonight with a potential for showers building in the afternoon and evening hours, primarily impacting GNV. Thunderstorms are a possibility but are not included in the TAF lines at this time due to lower confidence. Southeasterly winds will strengthen to 10-14 kts this afternoon with gusts close to 20 kts at KSSI/KCRG/KSGJ. By 22z/23z southeasterly coastal gusts and wind speeds will begin to trend near and below 10 knots.

MARINE

Breezy southeasterly winds continue, reaching cautionary levels offshore through tonight. A weak disturbance will generate isolated to scattered showers through the rest of the morning with activity generally shifting inland late this morning. Southeasterly winds and isolated showers continue through the daytime hours Sunday as a slowing front approaches from the northwest. The front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms as it pushes across the waters early Monday morning. Behind the front, high pressure building north of the area will wedge southward during the first half of next week, resulting in a surge of northeast winds followed by several days of strong onshore winds.

Rip Currents:

Easterly ocean swell is expected to weaken some today but with a steady southeasterly wind, 3-5 ft breakers for NE FL and around 2-4 ft in SE GA will lead to a High Risk or Rips along the entire First Coast today. Surf will trend up slightly through the weekend and it's likely that conditions will warrant an extension of the High Rip Current Risk through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions This Weekend

High pressure over the Atlantic will continue east-southeasterly winds over the area through Saturday. Isolated showers develop later this morning then increase in coverage this afternoon into evening. In the southeast flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will shift well inland with the best chances for rain and thunderstorms west of the US 301 corridor. Increase in cloud cover today will slightly lower mixing heights and keep dispersions fair to generally good. Despite higher afternoon RHs, volatile fuel beds, due to exceptional/extreme drought, combined with breezy winds could lead to erratic fire behavior. Slightly drier air on Saturday will keep rain chances low. Elevated mixing heights inland this weekend and increasing southwesterly winds will result in generally good dispersions with areas of high dispersions this weekend. Beneficial rain returns Sunday into early next week as a cold front moves through the region.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog potential each morning into this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 82 62 85 62 / 70 20 20 10 SSI 77 66 77 64 / 40 10 10 0 JAX 84 64 84 62 / 40 10 10 0 SGJ 83 66 81 63 / 30 10 10 0 GNV 87 63 89 61 / 70 10 10 0 OCF 88 65 89 62 / 50 10 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.