textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches Today. Moderate Risk at Southeast GA beaches

- Areas of Inland Dense Fog Tonight. Visibilities Near or Less than 1/4 Mile at Times

- Strong Cold Front Passage Late Thursday. Small Craft Advisory Conditions likely. Patchy frost possible inland SE GA Sunday Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Rest of Today and Tonight:

- Areas of dense fog possibles late tonight

- Elevated risk of rip currents at local beaches

Temps in the 70s to around 80 this afternoon with mostly clear skies outside of few cumulus and some high clouds. Light winds over the area with a weak high pressure system located over the lower MS valley providing for light west to northwest flow. Weak east coast sea breeze allows for onshore flow for the coastal counties this afternoon. Mainly zonal flow aloft at this time with subtle mid level ridge building over the area toward early Tuesday.

The weak pressure pattern will allow for near calm winds to develop tonight, along with mostly clear skies, for another round of some patchy to areas of fog after midnight. Best chance for areas of dense fog look to be over inland northeast FL, but may reach up into inland southeast GA near the Highway 301 corridor. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s inland southeast GA and Suwannee Valley to the mid to upper 50s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Inland Fog Possible Tuesday Night - Rain Chances Wednesday

Mild temperatures with dry weather Tuesday after morning fog lifts inland. Surface high pressure builds east of the Florida peninsula with low level southwest winds increasing moisture from the south bringing more afternoon cumulus clouds. Boundary layer winds increase Tuesday night ahead of an approaching front, so fog is less certain but low stratus from the Gulf may bring some aviation restrictions through daybreak Wednesday. Rain chances increase to about 15-20% Wednesday with the best chance of wetting rainfall and possibly a rouge thunderstorm along and south of of a St Augustine to Ocala line Wednesday afternoon with a passing mid level short wave trough. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail as highs continue to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with mild lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Frontal Passage Thursday - Much cooler & dry Friday through Sunday - Inland Frost Potential Southeast GA Sunday Morning

Breezy westerly winds Thursday increase ahead of an approaching cold front with a low chance (near 15%) of brief passing showers mainly across portions of northeast FL. The front moves south of the area Thursday evening, trailed by breezy northwest winds and a much cooler airmass by daybreak Friday morning with inland lows in the 40s north of Interstate 10 to 50s elsewhere. Breezy northwest winds continue Friday as highs top out in the lower 60s. Friday night a reinforcing dry front slides offshore of the southeast Atlantic coast, which will keep winds elevated through Saturday morning making wind chills feel like the 30s for most areas. Winds begin to relax Saturday as surface high pressure builds in from the west to northwest with dry weather and below average highs in the 60s for most with possibly some upper 50s for locations northwest of Waycross. Saturday will likely be the coolest day of the year since mid-March last spring. With calm winds and mostly clear skies, overnight lows fall into the mid/upper 30s for inland locations north of Interstate 10 Saturday night to 40s elsewhere. Sunday morning could be the first inland frost of the season for much of inland southeast GA with recent guidance showing about a 10-20% of a freeze at Alma GA Sunday morning.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

VFR skies expected through the late evening hours. Another round of low clouds and stratus can be expected late in the TAF period from 06-12Z at all sites. Using ensemble and NBM guidance, highest chances of IFR or lower looks to be for GNV, VQQ, and JAX from 09Z to 12Z, but rest of the TAF sites still have a chance of at least IFR. Would expect improvement to VFR by about 14z Tuesday.

MARINE

Seas will remain elevated, but below Caution levels through tonight. High pressure will weaken over the southeastern states by Tuesday, allowing seas to subside. Strong cold frontal passage expected on Thursday and will lead to strengthening offshore flow on Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely to begin Thursday afternoon or evening and will continue on Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents:

High risk of Rip Currents rest of today for northeast Florida beaches, with moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches due to lingering long period swells impacting the local beaches along with onshore flow. Light winds and decreasing swells will lead to mainly Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches on Tuesday and likely a littler lower risk by Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

- LOW MIN RH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON - LOW DISPERSION INLAND NORTHEAST FL THIS AFTERNOON

Dry conditions and light westerly winds persist through midweek, with Poor to Fair daytime dispersions. The dry conditions will continue to bring min RHs sitting right above critical values. The arrival of a cold front on Thursday will bring breezy conditions across a good portion of the area, which will allow for better dispersions to develop. Behind the front, colder temperatures will begin to build into the area, with temperatures likely dipping down to the mid to upper 30s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region Friday and Saturday Night.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog possible early Tuesday morning, mainly over northeast FL. Patchy Frost possible this weekend over inland SE GA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 46 77 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 56 76 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 53 80 57 79 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 59 79 63 79 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 54 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 57 82 63 81 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.