textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine and Coastal Hazards through Midweek. High Risk of Rip Currents continue through midweek. High Surf Reaching Local Beaches Starting Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory through Tuesday Morning. Gale Warning begins Tuesday Morning through Wednesday Night. Wind Advisory across coastal NE FL on Tuesday

- Fire Weather Watch Inland Southeast GA Tuesday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

UPDATE

A break in the rain showers is occurring across the vast majority of the region this evening, though expected to "fill in" overnight and towards morning, mainly over northeast FL and towards the coast. The best chance for a few heavier downpouts and perhaps an isolated t'storm will be the further south and east you go, closer to an inverted trough just to the southeast of the region. Reinforcing high pressure ridging builds in from the north overnight, with a noticeable increase in the pressure gradient and therefore wind speeds towards morning. A wind advisory begins at 6AM Tuesday, and expecting gusts around 40 mph to begin as early as around 5-6AM Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Windy Coastal Conditions Today and Tonight

- High Risk of Rip Currents

- Beneficial rain for most of the area. Isolated thunderstorms possible for North Central FL

The influence of high pressure ridging from out of the east will continue to weaken as prevailing flow shifts about to become onshore as upper level instability crosses over the Florida peninsula ahead of the slowly stalling frontal boundary. Breezy winds and beneficial stratiform rains will continue through today and tonight with a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of coastal north central Florida overnight, however chances remain more likely further to the south of the forecast area and over the Atlantic. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s for southeast Georgia and ranging between the lower 70s and the lower 80s, with warmer temps occurring further southward. Overnight low temps will drop down into the 50s over inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coastline.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday

- Fire Weather Concerns for inland southeast GA Tuesday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

A mid to upper-level trough will remain oriented north-south across the region on Tuesday, gradually pivoting to a more northwest- southeast tilt by Wednesday evening. At the surface, a strong 1038 mb high centered over the southern Great Lakes will shift eastward, becoming positioned offshore of the northeastern U.S. by Wednesday evening. This pattern will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the southeast, support persistent and strengthening northeasterly flow.

Otherwise, we continue to advertised cooler and breezy to windy onshore flow Tuesday through Wednesday area wide, with the stronger winds focused along the coastal areas and the St Johns River Basin where a wind advisory looks likely. Northeast winds of 20 to possibly 25 mph, with gusts of 40 mph are anticipated. Winds potentially stronger near 25 mph, gusts 45 mph for Wednesday and again along the coastal areas.

The moist onshore flow supports convergence and the risk of scattered to possible numerous showers, with an isolated t-storm possible southern most zones. However, much drier/much less rainfall amounts north of I-10 and west of I-95 in southeast GA. Given the convergence for the northeast FL coast, locally moderate rainfall amounts possible, from about 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches.

Temps will be on the cool side compared to normal. On Tuesday, highs will be upper 60s to lower 70s for most of northeast FL, coastal southeast GA, but mid 70s inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley. On Wednesday, generally upper 60s to lower 70s expected but some mid 70s max temps well inland near locales from Ocala to Gainesville to Trenton. Despite the moisture from onshore flow, inland southeast GA may have red flag conditions for fire weather on Tuesday given the lower dewpoints there and breezy northeast winds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow continues Thursday, with elevated winds along the coast and inland to the St. Johns River Basin

A mid to upper level trough will remain in place across the region on Thursday supporting a continuation of cyclonic flow at 500 mb and some weak large scale ascent. By Friday, the trough begins to weaken and shift south, allowing mid level heights to slowly rise as ridging builds in from the west through the weekend. This transition will promote increasing subsidence and a drying trend heading into Saturday and Sunday, mainly for the coastal areas of northeast FL.

At the surface, strong high pressure centered northeast will maintain a tight gradient on Thursday with broad inverted troughing lingering offshore. This setup will support persistent and gusty northeast winds. Weakened gradient relaxes on Friday with lower wind speeds going into Saturday and Sunday.

Moist onshore flow on Thursday will continue to support a chance of showers with the best chance of showers for St Johns and Flagler counties where the higher PWAT air is located and convergence is more maximized. A couple of thunderstorms possible for northeast FL on Thursday. Rain chances much decrease on Friday as a drier air works in, with transition to mostly dry and warmer temps over the weekend.

Temps in the 70s on Thursday, and temps respond on Friday through Sunday as the ridge builds in aloft. Max temps for the weekend reach mid 80s inland, but mid-upper 70s for the beaches/coast as we still see onshore flow/Atlantic sea breeze during the peak heating.

Several days of gusty northeasterly winds will continue to create beach and marine hazards, including high surf, moderate beach erosion and elevated coastal water levels at times of high tide Thursday through Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

MVFR conditions are in place across most airfields, and are expected to prevail for most of the forecast period. The exception is at SSI, which is expected to be near the "edge" of MVFR ceilings for most of the period, and SGJ which is expected to flirt with IFR ceilings throughout the forecast period. Any RA around the region is light at this time with little to no operational effects. However, areas of RA will increase during the morning hours at all airfields in addition to gusty northeasterly winds developing, in the 15-25 kt range with gusts of 30+ kts expected during the daytime hours Tuesday.

MARINE

High pressure ridging down the southeastern seaboard will be reinforced tonight, with strong onshore winds then continuing through the week and intensifying to Gale Force Tuesday through Wednesday night. The strong winds with a long fetch will build seas to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves away before much improved conditions developing this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life- threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough surf.

FIRE WEATHER

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING - For Portions Of Southeast Georgia

- Critically Low Min Rh And Breezy Inland Se Georgia Tuesday

HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS INLAND SE GA TUESDAY AND HIGH - Dispersion For Many Areas On Wednesday

Much stronger high pressure builds in from the north today and remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy to windy onshore flow and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers the closer to the coast. Critically low minRH values and breezy winds are forecast Tuesday for portions of inland southeast Georgia, with potential for red flag conditions with a Fire Weather Watch remaining in effect at this time. Moisture levels will return above critical levels the remainder of the week, but breezy easterly flow will continue through Friday. High nighttime dispersions are expected each night this week as well.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 54 73 52 70 / 30 20 10 20 SSI 60 68 60 68 / 50 50 20 40 JAX 57 69 59 72 / 60 60 30 60 SGJ 60 70 62 73 / 90 90 60 80 GNV 56 67 58 74 / 60 60 30 60 OCF 60 68 60 74 / 60 60 40 70

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474.