textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Wet Pattern Through Tuesday with daily showers and thunderstorms. Main Concerns: Localized Flooding, Gusty Winds up to 40-50 mph, and frequent lightning. Heaviest rainfall will be from the I-10 corridor northward today and into this evening.

- Moderate to high rip current risk Late Tuesday through Thursday

- Small Craft Advisory is likely Tuesday night through Wednesday

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Wet and storm today through tonight - Rainfall flooding risk mainly from the I-10 corridor northward

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will set up over southeast GA today with models in good agreement showing plentiful moisture with PWATs of about 2 to 2.3 inches; slightly less moisture going south toward north central FL. In addition, a frontal wave is likely to develop over southeast GA and then move eastward late tonight to the SC coastal areas. Instability is not too great today, but upwards of about 1600- 1900 J/kg. The frontal boundary and the overall light westerly deep layer flow of 10-15 kt will favor some back-building / training convection this afternoon and into the late evening. Highest POPs are favored from about I-10 northward, with another higher POP along the east coast and St Johns River Basin due to sea breeze and river breeze interactions. WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall for southeast GA/far northeast FL (north of I-10), and a marginal risk for rest of northeast FL through tonight. Overall, we expect convection to continue through the evening hours especially over the central parts of the area just south of where the frontal zone will be. Loss of heating and decreased instability will lead to more stable conditions late tonight, but probably some lingering stratiform rain that will eventually fade overnight.

Max temps today will be held in check by clouds and precip for southeast GA with highs in the lower 80s near the Altamaha River Basin and mid 80s south of Waycross. Northeast FL max temps in the mid to upper 80s expected. Lows tonight upper 60s inland southeast GA to lower 70s elsewhere. Patchy fog possible again this morning and again early Monday morning, mainly across inland southeast GA.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Above average chances for showers and thunderstorms

Frontal boundary will sink from near the GA/FL line Monday afternoon, into central FL by Tuesday night. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will move along this boundary, providing for an above average chance for precipitation this period, especially during the day time hours due to diurnal instability. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances NE FL Wednesday and Thursday

High pressure will sink south into area Wednesday, then build overhead later in the week and into the weekend.

Precipitation chances will linger across NE FL Wednesday into Thursday, due to proximity of the frontal zone. Otherwise, this will largely be a dry period.

Temperatures will trend below normal through much of this period, but return to near seasonal levels Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

A weak frontal boundary will drift south into the southeast GA area with a few showers kicking off through the early morning. In addition, areas of low clouds with MVFR and IFR are anticipated over parts of the area. MVFR cigs still likely at times from 12z-16z as additional showers or storms start to form. Further destabilization will lead to more shower and developing thunderstorms during the afternoon and so after 17z/18z, strong diurnal heating will prompt showers and storms for all terminals. TEMPO groups for IFR TSRA are in place. Gusty winds may accompany the stronger storms. Expect a chance of thunderstorms after 00z tonight as well with some prevailing light areas of rain likely for the first part of the evening hours.

MARINE

A weak cold front will become stationary over southeast Georgia today through this evening. An area of low pressure will form along this front tonight and move to the northeast of area waters early Monday, and push the weak cold front into our local coastal waters and dissipates. Another stronger cold front will move into the area waters on Tuesday, likely producing small craft advisory conditions from Tuesday to at least Wednesday night. Otherwise, rounds of daily showers and thunderstorms are forecast today through early Tuesday morning.

Rip Currents: Generally low-end moderate risk much of today. Rip current risk may begin to rise a little further by Monday. Probably looking at increased risk to moderate and high from Tuesday and into Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Monday Through Thursday

A frontal zone will affect the area through Wednesday, with above average chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will build Thursday through Saturday, with a cooler and drier airmass prevailing.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible early each morning. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon from Sunday through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 83 69 86 69 / 90 60 20 20 SSI 84 75 86 75 / 80 70 50 20 JAX 87 72 88 73 / 80 70 60 20 SGJ 88 74 90 74 / 80 50 70 20 GNV 89 73 89 73 / 50 20 70 20 OCF 88 75 88 74 / 50 20 70 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.