textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Expected through this Evening. Isolated Strong Storms Possible. Hazards: Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning & Heavy Downpours. Localized Flooding Possible, Mainly at Urban & Low-Lying Areas

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Wed - Mon

- Heat and Humidity Builds this Weekend and Early Next Week. Heat Advisory Conditions Possible by Sunday and Monday

UPDATE

Plenty of mid/high clouds and some light rain from early morning convection over the Gulf Coast region continue to affect parts of the region this morning. Any lingering ares of rain are expected to dissipate over the next few hours, though this activity and higher clouds may push back the start of convection this afternoon and evening. Still expecting scattered to perhaps numerous showers and t'storms by late this afternoon and evening, with the highest coverage areas likely to be towards the coast with the offshore flow and across southeast GA closer to a frontal boundary nudging southward throughout the day. Highs will top off in the upper 80s to low 90s area wide.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During This Period:

-Reduced chances for storms

Predominantly westerly flow will shift to become more out of the northwest by Thursday as high pressure in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula drifts further west towards Louisiana. Chances for daytime convection will be diminished on Thursday as drier air and more stable conditions move across over the forecast area. High temperatures through the latter part of the week will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s for southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 90s over northeast Florida with temps rising slightly into Thursday. Overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower to mid 70s. Heat index values will are expected to range upwards of above 100, but is likely to remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights During This Period:

- Daily bouts of showers and storms - Potential heat advisory conditions this late week into the weekend

Typical seasonal pattern for this time of year with westerly and southwesterly flow, daily bouts of showers and storms, and hot weather will continue on through into Monday of next week. Above average temperatures, with max temps rising into the mid 90s, will continue through the end of the weekend and into next week with heat index values potentially rising to Heat Advisory levels through the period.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Plenty of mid/high clouds and some weak light rain/SHRA continue to affect parts of the region this morning. SHRA are expected to continue to dissipate over the next few hours, and higher clouds may push back the start of convection this afternoon and evening. As a result, have pushed back TEMPO groups slightly, though confidence remains high enough for one of these groups at each terminal late this afternoon and this evening. With a frontal boundary pushing into southeast GA this evening, winds are expected to shift more northwesterly, and convection may linger generally along and north of I-10 after sunset. Therefore have kept PROB30s for all terminals except GNV and SGJ later this evening, though will update details as confidence grows with future updates. No other significant operational impacts expected towards the end of the forecast period at this time.

MARINE

A frontal boundary pushing slowly southward towards the Georgia waters will stall this afternoon, with this feature then weakening on Wednesday. Mainly light showers could impact the northeast Florida waters through the early morning hours on Tuesday, followed by additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact all of our local waters this afternoon and evening, with a few strong storms containing briefly gusty west winds and frequent lightning strikes possible. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday as prevailing winds briefing shift to northwesterly. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease by Thursday as the frontal boundary dissipates, with only isolated to widely scattered late afternoon and early evening activity possible for the near shore waters through Friday as a prevailing westerly flow continues during the overnight and morning hours each day. Surface troughing developing over the southeastern states this weekend could bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to our local waters as offshore winds prevail.

Rip Currents:

Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights will keep the rip current risk low at area beaches throughout this week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Through Thursday

The region will be between high pressure to the south and a gradually weakening frontal zone to the north this week. While daily thunderstorm chances are forecast, above average chances can be expected before midweek. Temperatures will be above average, with a trend upward later in the week.

Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 89 72 90 73 / 70 40 30 10 SSI 91 74 92 77 / 70 60 40 20 JAX 91 73 93 74 / 60 40 40 10 SGJ 92 75 93 76 / 60 20 50 10 GNV 91 73 93 74 / 40 20 40 10 OCF 91 73 93 75 / 40 10 30 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.