textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Through Saturday. Combination of Low Humidity and Winds May Create a High Wildfire Danger. Practice Wildfire Prevention and Avoid Activities with open flames or sparks. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality Check airnow.gov for current levels. Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Through Friday

- Isolated Tstorms Possible This Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

- Critically low humidity over Inland SE GA & Suwannee Valley

Dry weather conditions (PWATs 0.5-0.7 in) continue today as high pressure ridging remains over the region. The Atlantic sea breeze will shift inland this afternoon developing breezy SE winds in its wake. This will spread smoke associated with local wildfires to the NNW generally away from the coast. The continued onshore flow will bring a slight increase in low level moisture mainly to coastal areas and I-95 corridor. Critical humidities are still expected this afternoon across inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley with Min RHs in the low/upper 20s. Seasonable temperatures today with highs in the upper 70s along the coast to the low-mid 80s inland. Winds subside tonight with lows dropping into the 50s. Near calm winds during the overnight and early morning hours will help organize dense smoke near wildfires and Dense Smoke Advisories may be required.

Smoke from local wildfires has lowered the air quality especially across SE GA and Suwannee valley. Monitor AirNow.gov for current air quality index levels.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry weather and moderating temperatures will continue elevated fire danger conditions Thursday and Friday

- Dense smoke can be expected near wildfire locations during the overnight and early morning hours

Thursday, the high pressure ridge axis will shift ESE of the GA/SC coast into the western Atlantic waters. Weak SE flow above the surface will prevail, but only modest moisture increase up to 0.80 to 1.00 inch expected of Precipitable Water (nudging up to around the 25th percentile for sounding climatology) is expected as west to NW flow from 10.0 kft up into the mid and upper levels keeps dry, subsident air over the region and critically low humidity is expected over inland SE GA during the day. The Atlantic seabreeze will push well inland before merging with the Gulf coast seabreeze near I-75 over NE FL with widely isolated showers possible south of I-10, but any rainfall will be less than a tenth of an inch. Skies will be mostly sunny with a few low level cumulus in the diurnal heating becoming mid level clouds by early evening. Highs will be above normal in the mid 80s inland NE FL and mid to upper 80s across inland SE GA becoming and cooler approaching the coast with upper 70s to around 80 degrees at the coastal communities.

Thursday night, skies will be clear with southeast winds turning southerly and remaining 5-10 mph along the coast while winds become calm inland. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s inland to the low 60s at the coast. Patchy fog will develop, but should not be widespread, but relatively dry atmosphere and stable air will allow dense smoke to persist in the vicinity of wildfires, which may require a Dense Smoke advisory where calm winds lead to stagnate conditions.

Friday, the high will be further to the east with net southerly low level flow allowing the Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze to both reach highway 301 by late afternoon. Moisture levels (PWATs) will reach near normal levels around 1.00-1.10 inches with isolated showers south of I-10 over NE FL. Highs will be similar to Thursday in the mid to upper 80s inland and the upper 70s to around 80 at the coast.

Lows Friday night will be in the upper 50s inland to the low to mid 60s at the coast with light southerly winds 4-8 mph along the coast becoming calm inland. Once again. dense smoke may persist in the vicinity of wildfires.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms this weekend/early next week

-Above normal temperatures continue through the period

-Elevated wildfire risk continues due to isolated storm activity

Saturday, decreasing mid/upper level support aloft will allow a front approaching from the northwest to slow down across the deep south with southwesterly flow, increasing moisture, and strong diurnal heating creating chances for showers and T'storms over SE GA along with measurable rainfall amounts of less than a quarter inch. Shear will be light, so not expecting severe T'storms.

Sunday, a wave of shortwave energy will move across the frontal boundary as it sinks in SE GA providing extra lift over the area and Scattered T'storms will develop in the afternoon as seabreeze boundaries work inland from the coast. An increase in shear from the west northwest will increase potential for isolated severe T'storms. Measurable rainfall will extend in Northeast FL, but again should be under a quarter of an inch in total.

Monday, the frontal boundary will lift northward as strong high pressure well to the north moves off the New England coast with northeasterly flow weakening and allowing both seabreezes to develop as southerly flow increases aloft.

Tuesday, a strong mid/upper level trough will move east across the OH and TN valleys. increasing low to mid level winds will arrive ahead of a strong cold front and increasing instability will lead to potential for strong to severe T'storms forming ahead of the front. With a stronger front, there is potential for higher rainfall amounts greater than one inch across SE GA, but currently it is a low confidence forecast.

Temperatures will remain above normal during the period.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions continue through the TAF period with the exception of sites downwind of burning wildfires, which can reduce visibilities. Patchy smoke near SSI has lowered visibilities to MVFR tonight which will likely continue until the sea breeze develops. Light and variable winds this morning give way to breezy SE winds after 15Z as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts well inland. Depending on the state of wildfires, smoke-based restrictions can reform over the TAF sites in the early morning hours before the sea breeze blows the smoke to the NNW.

MARINE

High pressure builds eastward off the coast of the eastern seaboard with ridging lingering across area waters through Friday. Daily afternoon east-southeast wind surges in the wake of the sea breeze develop each day through Friday. Winds shift to southerly ahead of a cold front Saturday and southwesterly on Sunday as the front begins to stall just north of the waters. The front will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the waters this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Friday with the daily surge of SE winds and surf of 2-4 ft.

FIRE WEATHER

- Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Today for Inland Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

- Critically Low Humidity Values over Inland Southeast Georgia and Portions of Inland Northeast Florida

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Thursday Through Friday

- Widespread High Dispersions On Saturday

Dry conditions continue today as high pressure remains over the area with dry fuels and Min RH values below critical levels (Min RH below 30 percent) for Inland Northeast FL and Inland Southeast Georgia (Min RH below 25 percent) supporting Elevated Fire Danger conditions.

The dry conditions will persist Thursday and potentially Friday with critically low MinRH values over inland Southeast GA and portions of inland Northeast FL. High pressure over the area will gradually move east of the area from Thursday into Friday with southeasterly onshore flow, but still allow for the daily inland push of Atlantic seabreeze. Areas of high daytime dispersions are expected daily into at least Friday due to high mixing heights and moderate transport wind speeds. Limited rainfall chances are expected this weekend, along with isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity which could provide potential for lightning started wildfire activity. Potential for higher rainfall amounts early next week as a stronger cold front moves through the area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: There will be potential for localized "superfog" and/or dense smoke near the vicinity of any ongoing wildfires. Patchy fog will develop over inland Northeast FL Friday and Saturday mornings.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958

April 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 83 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 77 62 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 82 57 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 78 60 80 61 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 83 55 86 57 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 83 57 85 58 / 0 0 20 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.