textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Inland Freeze & Frost This Morning. Freeze Warning for Jeff Davis, Appling, Bacon & Coffee Counties. Frost Advisory: Inland Southeast Georgia & Portions of Inland Northeast Florida

- Marine & Surf Zone Hazards Return Monday. Small Craft Advisory Late Monday through Friday. High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough Surf

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Freezing temperatures inland SE GA, with frost potential over much of SE GA this morning

After a frosty and chilly morning, temperatures will rise into the 60s area-wide today with mostly sunny skies as winds shift northeasterly. Low temperatures Sunday night won't be as cold, but will drip into the upper 30s across portions of inland southeast Georgia, and in the 40s for the rest of inland areas. Near the coast and St. Johns river basin, lows will stay in the lower to mid 50s. Some patchy frost will be possible early Monday morning over far inland southeast Georgia.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal Hazards Increase Monday Night & Tuesday

Persistent and strengthening high pressure will be the main synoptic feature for the short term period, as the high center slowly shifts more towards our north as compared to the northwest. The second feature will be a shortwave trough moving eastward across the northern Gulf of Monday, moving across our region Monday Night and Tuesday.

After a mostly dry but cloudy Monday, chances for showers increase near the coast and south/eastern areas Monday Night and through Tuesday as the upper level energy induces a weak inverted trough to form east of the Florida peninsula and therefore tightening the pressure gradient, setting up another northeasterly wind event. The good news is our astronomical tide cycle is generally approaching a new moon, and therefore little to no tidal flooding impacts are expected. However, continuous modest onshore flow will return elevated rip current potential as well as rough surf at area beaches (especially northeast FL beaches). High temps will top out in the 60s to low 70s each day, with Monday being towards the lower end thanks to the increase in cloud cover. There will be quite the gradient with mornings lows both Monday and Tuesday Morning thanks to the onshore flow, as interior GA and parts of the Upper Suwannee River Valley will see lows mainly in the 40s, quickly trending towards the 50s to near 60 further south and east.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Increasing Coastal and Marine Hazards

Persistent northeast to east surface winds dominate Tuesday through Thursday as strong high pressure remains to the north and inverted troughing persists east of the area. There is also potential for a surface low forming toward the southeast Bahamas late week that tracks northeastward, though this would likely be non tropical in nature as a result of the aforementioned upper trough/low. Regardless, effects from this trough/low would essentially only maintain the enhanced pressure gradient across the area through mid week.

Not much of a threat of coastal flooding with this next event since we between full and new moon phases. Similar to what was mentioned in the short term, the setup will mainly drive hazardous marine conditions for the Atlantic coast, including rough surf, high rip current risk and dangerous marine conditions for boaters. Elevated rain chances will persist for the coastal northeast FL area mid to late week, with the potential for occasional heavier downpours for Flagler and St Johns counties. High pressure starts to break down towards next weekend.

Temperatures overall trend near average mid week before leaning above normal late week and the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions to prevail this TAF period. Winds will become more northeasterly by Sunday afternoon with gusts near 20 knots at SGJ.

MARINE

High pressure will build toward the northwest this weekend. The high will become centered more to the north early next week, with weak troughing developing over the coastal waters. This pattern will then persist through much of the upcoming week. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin late Monday, then continue through the week.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low through Sunday. NE FL: Moderate Sunday. Rip currents will trend toward a high risk early next week, and continuing through the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Cool and dry conditions are expected to generally moderate over the next few days as onshore flow remains persistent. This will especially be the case Monday and into Tuesday as the flow strengthens a bit, with chances for showers as well over south and east areas. Dispersions will remain in the fair to good range overall daily through Tuesday, despite more cloud cover for most. Northeasterly flow then looks to continue into mid week, with little change in the pattern expected through at least late week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected through the weekend. Patchy frost will be possible over far inland southeast GA early Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 38 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 50 65 54 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 65 45 68 53 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 66 56 70 60 / 0 0 0 50 GNV 68 47 70 53 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 69 50 72 55 / 0 0 0 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-035-120-220-322-422-522. GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>135. MARINE...None.