textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Increasing Marine & Coastal Hazards Late Tonight through Wednesday. Wind Advisory for Atlantic Coastal Communities North of Ponte Vedra Beach Tuesday. High Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Tuesday through Wednesday. High Surf Advisory along the Atlantic Coast from Tues Afternoon through Wednesday. Gale Warning for Southeast GA Waters and Northeast FL Waters North of St. Augustine. Small Craft Advisory for the Northeast FL Waters to the South of St. Augustine.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday, Mainly Along the I-95 Corridor.

- Strong Onshore Winds & Increasing Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend.

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide.

UPDATE

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Strengthening northeasterly winds develop after midnight along the southeast GA coast and during the predawn hours along the northeast FL coast.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers possible overnight, mainly for locations along and north of Interstate 10.

Evening surface analysis depicts a cold front pressing southward across south central portions of Georgia and southeastern Alabama. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1032 millibars) was building southeastward from the Upper Midwest in the wake of this frontal boundary. Aloft...troughing progressing across the eastern Great Lakes states and New England was creating northwesterly flow above 800 millibars (around 7,000 feet) per the evening sounding at Jacksonville. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a narrow ribbon of deeper moisture was pooling across southeast GA ahead of the approaching cold front, where PWATs have increased to around 1.25 inches, while values along the I-10 corridor have risen to around 1 inch, with values closer to 0.75 inches across north central FL. Mid-level cloudiness was gradually increasing across southeast GA ahead of the approaching front, with fair skies prevailing across northeast and north central FL. A tighter local pressure gradient was keeping a southwesterly breeze going for locations along and south of I-10, while winds have mostly diminished to around 5 mph across southeast GA. Temperatures were mostly in the 70s as of 01, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 50s to the lower 60s.

The cold front will enter southeast GA before midnight tonight, accompanied by a few showers. This front will quickly shift southward overnight, with strong high pressure building southeastward towards the Ohio Valley wedging down the southeastern seaboard before sunrise. A few light showers or sprinkles along the front may survive to around the I-10 corridor before the boundary encounters a drier air mass in place across north central FL during the predawn hours. High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard will tighten our local pressure gradient significantly from north to south during the predawn and early morning hours on Tuesday. A deck of lowering stratus and stratocumulus cloud cover will begin to move onshore along the southeast GA coast and I-95 corridor during the predawn hours, with this cloud cover overspreading the I-95 corridor in Nassau and Duval Counties in northeast FL towards sunrise. Breezy conditions should develop along the southeast GA coast during the predawn hours, with breezy onshore winds arriving in coastal Nassau and Duval Counties towards sunrise. Lows tonight will cool to the mid and upper 50s in the wake of the frontal passage in southeast GA, ranging to the low and mid 60s for coastal northeast FL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Increasing Marine & Coastal Hazards Tuesday through Wednesday. Wind Advisory for Atlantic Coastal Communities North of Ponte Vedra Beach Tuesday. High Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Tuesday through Wednesday. High Surf Advisory along the Atlantic Coast from Tues Afternoon through Wednesday. Gale Warning for Southeast GA Waters and Northeast FL Waters North of St. Augustine. Small Craft Advisory for the Northeast FL Waters to the South of St. Augustine.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday, Mainly Along the I-95 Corridor.

As low pressure moves southward near the eastern Florida coast, showers will develop areawide Tuesday and Wednesday, with isolated storms generally near the Florida coast and north central Florida Tuesday. Shower coverage will spread into southeast Georgia Tuesday night through Wednesday, with isolated storm chances again being near north central Florida in the afternoon/evening. Gusty northeasterly winds and cloudy skies will keep temperatures cool near the coast and southeast Georgia, in the 60s to 70s. Wind gusts near the Atlantic coast, especially Jacksonville northward, will approach 40 mph on Tuesday.

High pressure will be centered to the northeast Wednesday, with a weak inverted trough over the coastal waters. The trough will help generate showers. The greatest chances for showers will be near the coast, where a few thunderstorms will also be possible. Wednesday will be a warmer day, but with expected cloud coverage and onshore flow, highs will still be a bit below average.

The high pressure ridge builds closer to the region Wednesday night, pushing the trough south as well. Therefore, a dry night is forecast. Lows in the 50s will be common.

On Thursday, the high pressure ridge will build overhead. It will be a dry and sunny day, with temperatures recovering to above average readings. The high remains in place Thursday night with lows in the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Unseasonably Cool and gusty day possible Saturday.

The high pressure ridge will sink to the south Friday, as a cold front approaches from the north. Friday will be a dry and sunny day with above normal temperatures. Highs inland could reach 90.

The cold front will move south across the area Friday night. Precipitation chances are low, but could not rule out a few showers near the coast. Lows in the mid 50s to around 60 will be common.

On Saturday a surge of winds will move down the coast following the front, with a low chance for coastal showers. This will be another day where temperatures could be non diurnal, with readings falling through the day, as the post frontal cold advection works south. The consensus of models may be too warm for Saturday, and suspect future model runs will trend cooler.

Strong high pressure will be centered to the northeast Saturday night through Monday, with an inverted trough over the coastal waters. A few coastal showers will be possible due to the coastal trough. Near to below normal temperatures Saturday night and Sunday, with near to above Sunday night and Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 07Z at the regional terminals. MVFR ceilings of 1,500 - 2,500 feet will develop at SSI after 07Z, with a few showers possible overnight through Tuesday afternoon. Ceilings at SSI will likely lower to around 1,000 - 1,500 feet by 14Z. MVFR ceilings will expand southward to the Duval County terminals by 10Z, where a few showers will also be possible from the predawn hours through Tuesday night. IFR ceilings of 600-900 feet will be possible after 22Z Tuesday at the Duval County terminals, but confidence was only high enough to indicate ceilings below 1,000 feet at the VQQ terminal at this time. Ceilings should lower to MVFR levels of 2,000 - 3,000 feet at SGJ towards 12Z, with these lower ceilings reaching GNV before 14Z. Ceilings will continue to lower at GNV and SGJ as the day progresses, with confidence high enough to indicate IFR ceilings of 600-900 feet at SGJ towards 00Z Wednesday. Scattered showers are most likely at the SGJ terminal during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday, but confidence in timing and intensity was only high enough to indicate vicinity coverage at this time. West-southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots at the regional terminals through at least 05Z before shifting to northwesterly around 10 knots at SSI by 06Z, with this wind shift progressing southward to the Duval County terminals before 08Z and to GNV and SGJ before 10Z. Surface winds will then abruptly shift to northeasterly before 08Z at SSI, where sustained speeds will increase to 15-20 knots and gusty. Surface winds will shift to north- northeasterly at the Duval County terminals towards 10Z and the GNV and SGJ terminals before 12Z. Sustained surface speeds will increase to 20-25 knots after 13Z at SSI, CRG, JAX, and SGJ, where frequent gusts of 30-35 knots will be possible after 16Z. Speeds will increase to 15-20 knots and gusty at GNV and VQQ by 15Z Tuesday.

MARINE

A cold front will cross the Georgia waters towards midnight, with this front then progressing quickly southward across the northeast Florida waters overnight. Meanwhile, strong high pressure building over the Ohio Valley in the wake of this frontal passage will wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Tuesday, creating an abrupt northeasterly wind surge overnight that will bring Gale conditions to all waters from St. Augustine northward before sunrise on Tuesday and Small Craft Advisory conditions to the waters south of St. Augustine towards sunrise. Developing coastal troughing will generate scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms from late tonight through Wednesday morning, mainly for the northeast Florida waters.

High pressure will then gradually weaken on Wednesday as it shifts offshore of the Mid-Atlantic states, allowing coastal troughing to weaken and winds to subside on Wednesday evening, with shower coverage decreasing before midnight over the northeast Florida waters. Atlantic high pressure will then extend its axis across our local waters from Thursday through Friday night, allowing seas to diminish. Another cold front will then enter the southeastern states on Friday night, crossing our local waters on Saturday. Strong high pressure will again build to the north of our area in the wake of this front, resulting in another surge of onshore winds throughout our local waters and possible Gale conditions during the weekend.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk Tuesday through Wednesday. Surf builds to around 5-7 ft Tuesday afternoon and possibly up to 6-8 ft Tuesday Night into Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Through Friday - Widespread High Afternoon Dispersions Saturday Through Monday

A cold front will move south of the area Today, with gusty winds following its passage. High pressure will build to the northeast this afternoon through Wednesday, with an inverted trough over the coastal waters. High pressure ridge will build overhead Thursday and Thursday night. Another cold front will move south across the area Friday night, with a surge of winds moving down the coast following it on Saturday. High pressure will build to the Saturday night through Monday, with inverted troughing over the coastal waters.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected this morning, or Tonight. Thunderstorm chances for Northeast FL Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, mainly near the coast. Gusty coastal winds on Tuesday and again on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 57 64 50 69 / 20 0 40 30 SSI 60 59 55 67 / 40 10 50 30 JAX 60 61 56 72 / 20 30 50 30 SGJ 64 64 61 73 / 30 60 60 40 GNV 60 68 59 77 / 10 20 30 30 OCF 59 74 60 79 / 10 30 30 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 4 AM EDT Tuesday through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 4 AM EDT Tuesday through late Wednesday night for GAZ154-166. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-452-470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ454-474.