textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Thunderstorm chances increasing across NE FL through Saturday and areawide by Sunday.

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Area Beaches Today

- Hot Holiday Weekend Potential Max Heat Indices: 100-110F

- Minor River Flooding for Satilla River

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

Spotty coastal showers will approach through the period with mainly afternoon inland showers and a very low chance (< 15%) of a thunderstorm across the Suwannee River Valley and I-75 corridor as the dominant east coast sea breeze shifts farther inland. Drier air inland will greatly limit convective growth and thus rain chances, while increasing moisture approaches from the ESE through tonight as the inverted trough axis across south-central FL begins to lift northward in response to the upper ridge across the mid-Atlantic shifting farther northeast and weakening. Breezy east winds will veer more SE overnight, with a chance of coastal showers mainly along the Florida Atlantic coast after midnight. Mild overnight lows will range from near 70 inland to the upper 70s along the coast under increasing cloudiness from the Atlantic.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Afternoon thunderstorms focused over inland Northeast Florida. - Elevated Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

Low-level flow transitions from easterly Friday to southerly by Saturday, ushering in deep tropical moisture. South of Waycross, precipitable water (PWAT) values will climb to 2.0-2.35 inches by Saturday, significantly increasing instability. Scattered afternoon and evening storms on Friday will focus over inland Northeast Florida (PWAT around 1.75"), expanding to numerous coverage on Saturday, particularly south of I-10. Weak steering currents and high moisture will favor slow-moving storms capable of torrential rainfall, frequent lightning, and localized urban flooding.

Temperatures remain well above early July averages. Highs will reach the mid-to-upper 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s coastal. Overnight lows in the mid-70s inland and upper 70s near the coast/St. Johns River will provide little recovery. Peak heat indices of 100-108 degrees are expected; Heat Advisories may be required where convective onset is delayed.

An elevated rip current risk will continue at area beaches through the period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Higher Storm Chances Return for Much of the Area - Building Heat for Southeast GA

Persistent south-to-southwesterly flow maintains a tropical air mass through midweek, with PWATs consistently exceeding 2 inches. Daily rounds of scattered to numerous afternoon convection are expected Sunday and Monday. The activity will peak across inland Northeast Florida, driven by sea breeze and outflow boundary interactions. Localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds remain the primary threats. Coverage may taper to scattered on Monday.

The Atlantic ridge axis extends across Central Florida by midweek, maintaining prevailing southwest flow and limiting east coast sea breeze penetration. Temperatures remain above seasonal normals with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s. Offshore flow will keep the coast warm, with heat indices averaging 100-108 degrees. Portions of Southeast Georgia could approach 110 degrees if storm coverage remains sparse.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

A weak coastal trough will attempt to push showers into the coastal terminals but unlikely that activity will maintain. However, the cloud bases may fall to MVFR levels at times through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the easterly winds around 8-12 knots will persist through the rest of the day, trending light this evening and overnight. While remnant troughing hangs over the Atlantic, an early round of isolated showers are possible at the coastal airfields after 12z Friday with potential for occasional MVFR ceilings. Easterly winds will be favored again through Friday with similar speeds to this afternoon.

MARINE

Easterly continues through Friday with high pressure northeast of the region and a trough axis extending across central Florida. Passing coastal showers will continue. High pressure builds across central and south Florida this weekend into early next week with a transition to south to southwest flow over the local waters and higher afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances over the local waters. Nightly wind surges return with near exercise caution levels.

Rip Currents:

Weaker onshore flow today and Friday will result in moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER INTERIOR SE GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY - Evening

- Higher Storm Chances Return for Much of the Area this Weekend

Onshore flow continues this evening with high pressure centered to the north. While the current air mass remains relatively dry, a surge in tropical moisture on Friday will persist through the Independence Day weekend, resulting in a steady increase in thunderstorm activity.

Fog Potential: Significant fog is not expected through the period. Any stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, torrential rainfall, and erratic wind gusts during the afternoon and evening.

HYDROLOGY

Satilla River at Atkinson will remain in Minor Flood through the weekend but will continue to gradually lower.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 95 71 96 73 / 10 0 10 0 SSI 90 78 90 79 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 91 74 92 75 / 20 10 30 0 SGJ 89 76 90 76 / 20 20 30 0 GNV 94 72 94 74 / 20 20 30 10 OCF 93 74 93 75 / 30 20 40 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.