textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Dense Fog Possible This Morning and Early Saturday Morning

- Thunderstorm Potential Increases This Afternoon for SE GA. Marginal Severe T-Storm Risk Saturday Saturday night SE GA, Isolated Storms Elsewhere

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of the Region. Red Flag Conditions Possible Monday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Today

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Sunday through Monday

- Freeze and Frost likely Monday night and Tuesday night

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Rest of Tonight: A deep and fairly moist southwest flow will continue to favor low clouds and areas of fog into the early morning hours. Recent GOES satellite imagery shows the low clouds pushing gradually east with time, while a few light showers pass over inland southeast GA. With the winds becoming a bit lighter, there is potential for some dense fog development and possible for a dense fog advisory. Like prior nights, the best potential for dense fog will be over northeast FL where the boundary layer winds are weaker, but still are about 12-15 kt at about 400-500 ft per VWP from KJAX and KVAX radars. In addition, some sea fog development possible over the coastal waters as higher dewpoint air (60-65) overrides the cooler waters with SSTs about 55-60. Low temps will remain well above normal only falling into the lower 60s, and possibly only the middle 60s across inland SE GA due to the elevated southwest winds.

For today, cloudy skies with fog this morning and a few showers remaining over inland southeast GA and possibly Suwannee Valley area. As southwest winds increase, mixing will scour our the remaining low stratus by the early afternoon. Southwest winds will resume breezy at 10-15 mph with gusts of 25 mph as a front approaches from the NW, but will slow down before reaching the Altamaha River basin. Scattered showers will develop into the Suwannee Valley and SE GA, but dry conditions will prevail elsewhere. PWATs climb to about 1.3 to 1.5 inches north half of zones through the day and evening. A few thunderstorms are now forecast over inland southeast GA as instability increases to above 500 to near 1000 J/kg. Highs (see climate section) will be very close to daily record highs into the mid 80s over inland NE FL and lower 80s over inland SE GA with upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.

Tonight, anticipate scattered shower activity over inland southeast GA, and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm near and north of Alma GA around the 6 pm-9pm time frame. Otherwise the shower chances may persist at times overnight as the frontal boundary remains nearly stationary to the north while weak frontal wave forms over central GA. Another round of low stratus and fog expected tonight and followed some the recent guidance to show this, and also pushing fog to the coastal waters. Per HREF and SREF, the probability of dense fog for northeast FL will be slightly greater, which is reasonable considering that the sfc winds will be a touch weaker. Low temps will be very mild, above normal around 60-65, warmest over southeast GA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Hazards This Period: Potential for dense fog inland Friday night. Thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, with a few strong storms possible over SE GA. An inland freeze over SE GA Sunday night.

High pressure ridging will prevail across central and southern FL Saturday, as a frontal zone stretches across central GA. While FL will be primarily dry on Saturday, showers will move along the frontal zone and affect SE GA. The moist southwest flow is expected to bring fog in off the Gulf Friday night, with potential for dense fog, especially along and near the I75 corridor.

A stronger wave will develop and move into the Carolinas Saturday night, helping to push a cold front southeast across forecast area. Showers, with embedded thunderstorms are expected as the front moves through. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be over SE GA, with activity weakening as it enters NE FL.

On Sunday, the front will move to the southeast of the area, with high pressure building from the northwest. The high will continue to build through Sunday night.

Temperatures will run well above normal through Saturday night. Sunday will be a transition day, with highs early, but falling temperatures in the afternoon. Lows Sunday night will fall to around freezing over inland SE GA Sunday night, and mid over inland NE FL. The wind will remain elevated Sunday night, so frost is forecast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Hazards This Period: Freeze/Frost potential Monday night and Tuesday night. Fire Weather concerns during the first half of the week due to dry conditions.

High pressure will continue to build from the west Monday, and will become centered just to the south Tuesday into Wednesday. The high will be centered more toward the southeast Thursday. Wrap around moisture on the back side of the high could lead to a few showers Thursday.

Below normal temperatures are forecast for Monday through Tuesday night. Inland Freezes with frost are expected for Monday night and Tuesday night. After a near normal day Wednesday, above average temperatures are forecast for Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

A mix of low cigs around the area at 12z with IFR or lower at times for GNV, and further northeast to the JAX area and SSI some IFR and MVFR cigs. Vsby at TAFs will not be very low given the southwest winds have been up to 6-10 kt at times early this morning providing enough mixing at the surface. The low cigs should lift to VFR for the TAFs by about 16z-18z with VFR clouds lasting through the evening. Another round of low cigs tonight with IFR or lower beginning about 06z-09z. Sfc winds, southwest winds of about 5-10 knots but become breezy 11-15 knots and gusts to 20-23 knots from 16Z into the afternoon. Widely scattered showers may bring VCSH coverage to SSI after 18Z.

MARINE

High pressure east of the Florida Peninsula will continue to extend a ridge axis westward across area waters through Saturday. Patchy dense sea fog is also expected during the late night and morning hours through Saturday. Shower and isolated thunderstorm potential will increase Saturday Night through Sunday Morning as a strong cold front moves through, with a breezy northwest flow developing behind the front resulting in likely Small Craft Advisory conditions. High pressure north and west of the region will then be the main weather feature early next week, slowly moving almost directly over the area by mid week.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be moderate today thanks to breezy offshore flow and some remnant long period swells. Surf/breakers of 1-3 ft today will trend downward to around 2 feet or less this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- MinRH levels below 30 percent will be common Monday through Wednesday

- Areas of high dispersions Today through Monday, and again Thursday

A cold front will move southeast across the area Saturday night, otherwise high pressure will prevail this period.

Fog can be expected this morning, and again Tonight. A round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage with a few strong storms possible. A cooler and drier airmass will advect into region following the front for next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential this morning and again Tonight, especially affecting areas around the I75 corridor. A round of thunderstorms is forecast for Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, with a few strong storms possible.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures possible today into the weekend.

Fri, February 20: KJAX: 86/1961 KCRG: 83/2014 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014

Sat, February 21: KJAX: 86/2019 KCRG: 84/2019 KGNV: 89/2019 KAMG: 87/2018

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 82 64 82 53 / 50 40 80 80 SSI 78 62 79 56 / 30 20 50 80 JAX 87 61 87 57 / 10 0 20 60 SGJ 84 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 50 GNV 86 59 85 59 / 0 0 10 60 OCF 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.