textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Duration of Dangerous Cold this Week. Nightly Freezes Monday Night through Next Weekend. Tuesday Morning Wind Chills in the Teens to lower 20s. Inland Hard Freezes Likely.

- Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings through early Tuesday and Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Much colder and blustery compared to yesterday at this time as the arctic cold front has pushed well to the southeast of the area. As much as 25 deg colder at Lake City and Live Oak from Sunday at 1 pm. Areas of low clouds linger over northeast FL, but these will clear out in the next hour with sunny skies developing for northeast FL, with southeast GA in sunny skies but temps are in the 40s there.

Falling temperatures this afternoon with wind gusts peaking to about 30-35 mph, especially at the beaches. These breezy conditions will linger into the overnight hours and slowly diminish, but leading to cold conditions and increasing the risk of exposure/potential hypothermia.

Temps will fall dramatically tonight with lows falling to the lower 20s across southeast GA and into the mid/upper 20s across northeast FL. Combining these temperatures with the lingering wind, it'll feel like it's in the teens and lower 20s for the entire area tonight. There is a low chance of patchy black ice, but there's low confidence since the actual road temperatures may be above freezing for most areas. However, the more prone areas might be elevated surfaces, bridges and overpasses for example, if enough water remains standing from the recent rainfall and the road temp will get to freezing.

Due to the dangerous wind chills forecast a Cold Weather Advisory continues in addition to a Freeze Warning (Hard Freeze expected over all of southeast GA and most of northeast FL). The exception to hard freeze will southeast zones where the wind will hinder further temp drop to "hard freeze". Make cold weather and preparations now before the freeze sets in tonight and Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Cold and dry conditions persist through midweek as high pressure builds over the region from the west.

Tuesday, cold and dry conditions will persist with daytime highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s as clear skies remain throughout the day over inland locations. Overnight Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 20s area-wide with cloud cover increasing throughout the overnight hours into Wednesday. The Freeze Watch currently in place will be upgraded either during the overnight package or the following morning forecast package. Weaker winds will help to keep wind chills in the 20s as well, but still near criteria levels for a Cold Weather Advisory over NE FL on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Will access in the next forecast package. Widespread Frost will be likely with the weaker winds.

Wednesday, temperatures will be a bit warmer compared to Tuesday, but daytime highs will still over reach into the 50s with lower 50s over SE GA and upper 50s over NE FL. Cloudy skies will steadily begin to clear through the day on Wednesday, with clear skies for the most of Wednesday night. Overnight Lows will be in the upper 20s, with wind chills trending to remain above criteria levels for any Cold Weather Advisory. Freeze products will again be needed for Wednesday night as sub-freezing temperatures continue once again. Another night of widespread Frost is expected with the near calm winds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Cold and dry conditions persist through the end of the week. Freeze products are expected to be needed each night through the forecast period, with Cold Weather Advisories likely returning by the weekend as sub-freezing temperatures are expected each evening. Guidance suggest a Low pressure system developing off the east coast by the upcoming weekend. With the potential for a coastal storm developing in addition to cold temperatures expected during the upcoming weekend, we could see some winterly precipitation for portions of our inland locations this weekend. This will be in addition to coastal and marine hazards as elevated winds develop over the local waters. But this all depends on if/when/where any Low pressure system develops for, if any, precipitation to make its way into our area at the right time with the colder temperatures to see any wintry precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Much colder airmass moving through the region with lingering areas of MVFR cigs across northeast FL. Expect these lower cigs to push out by 20z for the TAFs with VFR thereafter. Sfc winds, blustery from 290 to 320 deg at 10-16ktG25kt into tonight and backing off and less gusty after 06z-10z time frame. Prevailing winds will be northwest to north (about 320 to 360 degrees) at 8-12 kt after 10z. A few lingering gusts of 15-20 kt will be possible.

MARINE

Northwest to north winds will increase into tonight in the wake of a strong arctic cold front. Gale conditions are expected to develop over the northeast Florida coastal waters with Small Craft Advisories over the southeast Georgia coastal waters. Rising seas will push toward 7 to 11 feet tonight before both winds and seas begin to slowly relax. After a short break Tuesday and Wednesday, a couple more cold fronts will push across the waters during the second half of the week. The first front will pass Wednesday night and the second Friday night with both fronts bringing periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the local waters.

Rip Currents: Despite offshore flow, moderate risk is noted for most areas beaches today. Elevated breakers are still expected, especially south of St Augustine which may lead to a slightly higher- end Moderate risk along that stretch of beach. Lighter winds (still offshore) and falling surf heights will reduce risk more by Tuesday, especially from Jax Beach northward.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Across Southeast Georgia Today - Critically Low Rh Values Area-Wide Through Midweek

Cool and dry conditions continue through the upcoming week as high pressure builds over the region. Gusty northwesterly winds will begin to diminish and become more mild this evening. Dispersions begin to trend downward Tuesday and Wednesday over NE FL, with lower dispersions area-wide by Thursday as near calm winds develop. With drier air filtering into the region, critically low RH values on Tuesday afternoon with values in the upper 10s to lower 20s area- wide. RH values increase a bit by midweek, but will be still be near or below critical levels as the dry air remains throughout the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Frost and freeze conditions will develop during the overnight and early morning hours throughout the week.

CLIMATE

Daily records due to the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

------------------------------------- RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: -------------------------------------

January 31: - KGNV: 47/1909

February 1: KJAX: 42/1900 KGNV: 41/1909

------------------------------------- RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES: -------------------------------------

January 31: - KCRG: 33/2019

February 1: - KJAX: 24/1977 - KGNV: 25/1977 - KAMG: 22/1977 - KCRG: 29/1977

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 21 45 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 25 47 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 24 50 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 29 48 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 26 52 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 27 52 26 58 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125- 132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333- 340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533- 633. Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ452- 454-472-474. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454-472-474.