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KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Strong to Severe TStorms for Southeast GA Late Afternoon & Evening. Primary Hazard: Strong Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph

- Red Flag Warning Sunday Afternoon & Evening for NE FL, Portions of SE GA. Wind gusts 25-35 MPH, Min RH Values 25-30%. Fire Weather Watch Area-Wide Monday

- Small Craft Advisory & Gale Warning Sunday Afternoon through Monday

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of Our Region

- Widespread Freeze & Low Wind Chill Values Mon Night & Early Tues. Light Freeze Potential Sunday Night Inland

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Hazards this period: - Isolated Strong Thunderstorms across SE GA this evening - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at NE FL beaches

Breezy southwesterly prefrontal winds are urging temperatures to reach daily record high temperatures for the second straight day. Current observations are reading in the low 80s as of noon and are likely to push into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon.

A weak low developing along a leftover front will continue to organize as it moves across southern GA this afternoon. Better cooling aloft with the upstream trough will stay further north, keep the better more favorable environment just to the north through the rest of the afternoon. Though there will be some instability available across southeast GA this afternoon, the frontal zone convergence isn't likely to reach our area in time to capitalize. Instead the line of convection will be mostly comprised of showers with isolated storms possible. Given the strong low level winds there could be a few strong gusts up to 50 mph before the nocturnal inversion elevates the convection. Showers will slide southeastward with the trailing cold front tonight but a small rainfall footprint, if any, is expected across south of US-82 (Waycross) in SE GA.

Gulf stratus will sneak into portions of inland NE FL tonight but fog isn't likely given the breezy surface winds keeping the boundary layer relatively mixed. This will keep temperatures much warmer across NE FL again tonight with lows in the mid 60s while the temps in SE GA fall to upper 50s around daybreak just before the strong cold air advection arrives.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS (Sunday - Monday Night: - Northwesterly Winds Strengthen on Sunday

- Sharply Colder Sunday Night with a Light Freeze Possible Across Inland Southeast GA & Wind Chills Falling to the 20s - Gusty Northwesterly Winds and Low Humidity Increase the Wildfire Danger on Monday

- Widespread Freeze & Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Monday Night

Showers associated with the frontal passage will move offshore and become more dispersed by Sunday afternoon followed by dry weather and clearing skies as cold dry air settles in over the region. Gusty westerly-northwesterly winds will build on Sunday with gusts of up to 30 mph or higher anticipated, with breezy winds continuing on into Monday. Temperatures will cool through the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week with daily high max temps dropping down into the upper 40s and lower to mid 50s on Monday and with overnight low temperatures similarly dropping down into mid to upper 20s for inland areas by the end of the period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Hazards During the Long Term Period: - Elevated Fire Danger Possible on Tuesday Afternoon

- Light Freeze and Widespread Frost on Tuesday Night - Warming Trend Wednesday through Friday

- Some Beneficial Showers and Fog Potential Late in the Week

Cold and dry weather conditions with clear skies associated with high pressure will be in place over the forecast area for the start of the period. Cloud cover and chances for rainfall will increase midweek through the end of the weekend as high pressure moves to the northeast into the Atlantic and a moist westerly prevailing flow forms over the region ahead of an advancing cold front pressing down from out of the north. Temperatures will experience a warming trend through the coming week with daily temps rising to above average levels by the end of the period.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Southwest winds of around 10 knots gusting to 15-20 knots will continue through 02Z as a cold front approaches from the northwest tonight with increasing showers spreading northwest to southeast overnight. VFR conditions persist through 05Z as scattered showers move east ahead of the front with heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms closer to the front moving through SSI 05-09Z with MVFR ceilings and visibility restrictions at times. The heavier showers will begin to weaken some as they move into the Northeast FL TAF sites from 08-13Z with prevailing MVFR ceilings during this time. Ceilings may lower to IFR levels from 13-15Z over Northeast FL terminals as winds begin to shift northwesterly behind the frontal boundary.

Sunday, VFR levels resume as the front will exit to the southeast with skies clearing by midday to early afternoon. Northwest winds will increase from 15 knots gusting to 25 knots in the late morning to up to 20 knots gusting to around 30 knots through the reminder of the afternoon as a low strengthens quickly to the northeast and high pressure builds in from the northwest.

MARINE

Low pressure will continue to develop over the southeastern states this afternoon along the slow moving frontal boundary. This low pressure center will move northeastward towards the coastal Carolina region tonight, dragging the cold front across our local waters on Sunday morning. Showers and a few potentially strong thunderstorms could impact the Georgia waters ahead of this storm system this evening, with showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms then pushing southeastward across the rest of our local waters late tonight and Sunday morning. Northwesterly winds will quickly strengthen in the wake of this frontal passage on Sunday afternoon, with Gale Watches posted for frequent Gale force wind gusts through Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, low pressure will parallel the Mid- Atlantic and New England coasts while rapidly strengthening from Sunday night through Monday night, with Small Craft Advisory conditions prevailing locally on Monday night. Arctic high pressure will then build along the northern Gulf coast on Tuesday and will then push southeastward across the Florida peninsula on Tuesday night, allowing for winds and seas to diminish across our local waters. This high pressure center will then push offshore by midweek ahead of another approaching cold front that should impact our local waters late in the upcoming week, with south to southwesterly winds prevailing in advance of this frontal boundary.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be moderate today thanks to breezy offshore flow and some remnant long period swells. Surf/breakers of 1-3 ft today will trend downward to around 2 feet or less this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NE FL AND OKEFENOKEE NWR SUNDAY - Afternoon Expanding To All Areas Monday

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Each Afternoon Through Monday

- Elevated Nighttime Dispersion Values On Sunday Night

- Long Durations Of Critically Low Humidity On Tuesday Inland

Red Flag Warning is in effect Sunday for all of Northeast FL and portions of Southeast GA

A weak low pressure moving across the area this afternoon will rapidly strengthen along the Mid Atlantic coast through Sunday resulting in significant winds through Monday. A cold and very dry arctic airmass will plunge across the region Sunday morning resulting in critically low humidity across NE FL and portions of SE GA (Okefenokee NWR). Though temperatures will fall way below normal on Monday, strong winds, low humidity will combine to lead to a second straight day of Red Flag Conditions. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the entire area Monday. Winds will begin to relax Tuesday as high pressure moves across Floria but critically low afternoon humidity is expected through Wednesday.

The cold front associated with the weak low pressure will push a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms through SE GA before weakening considerably by the time it moves into NE FL late tonight. Little rainfall is expected with that area of showers, however, there may be enough to hold back fuels by about a day across SE GA north of US-82.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread subfreezing temperatures are forecast area-wide late on Monday night through early Tuesday morning, with widespread frost and a possible light freeze forecast from late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures will be possible again this afternoon.

Sat, February 21: KJAX: 86/2019 KCRG: 84/2019 KGNV: 89/2019 KAMG: 87/2018

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 63 30 48 / 90 20 0 0 SSI 57 67 34 50 / 70 40 0 0 JAX 59 71 32 53 / 40 40 0 0 SGJ 61 72 36 54 / 30 50 0 0 GNV 60 72 32 55 / 40 30 0 0 OCF 60 73 33 56 / 30 40 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM EST Sunday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533- 633. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125- 132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333- 340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM EST Sunday for GAZ162-163- 264-350-364. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM EST Sunday for AMZ450- 452-454. Gale Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450- 452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ470- 472-474. Gale Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ470- 472-474.