textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Unsettled, wet weather coverage expands today and continues areawide this weekend and throughout most of next week. Localized flooding concerns will compound each day. Fresh- water flood concerns increase for coastal counties next week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at all area beaches Today and Saturday.

- Moderately Strong Nor'Easter Conditions Develop Next Week (Monday Night). Strong coastal winds, Gales over the waters, Deadly surf and rip currents, minor to low-end moderate tidal flooding and beach erosion Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening.

- Localized heavy downpours may lead to brief periods of flooding, especially for inland areas.

The steady feed of tropical moisture continues early this morning with deep southeasterly flow between a stacked ridge of the Carolinas and a closed upper low near the Yucatan Peninsula. A shield of high clouds will continue to spread northward through the morning hours, which should deter fog formation across NE FL but enough open sky across portions of SE GA may allow a brief period of fog, which may be locally dense, to develop north of US 82.

After daybreak, mostly cloudy to overcast skies will slow diurnal heating; however, the very moist airmass (PWAT near 2.25") and enough daytime heating will yield a modestly unstable environment this afternoon. Through the afternoon, an additional inverted trough will lift across the region allowing widespread showers to flourish and bring the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Primary threat will be very heavy downpours; localized amounts of 3-4". A few strong thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon as outflow boundary interactions increase.

Through the evening, a sheared portion of the inverted trough will begin to lift northeastward across SE GA, continuing showers and isolated thunderstorms into the late evening and potentially early hours Saturday. Given the very moist airmass, marginal elevated instability more isolated shower activity may also continue into the overnight hours across NE FL as well.

Cloudy skies will keep highs a few degrees cooler today, generally in the upper 80s while tonight overcast conditions will favor mild overnight temperatures (mid 70s) especially near the coast which will be in the upper 70s to around 80 at the beaches.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal rain chances through the weekend. Localized heavy downpours and flooding possible.

Southeasterly flow persists through this weekend as upper level ridging sits northeast of the region ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, which is expected to push into the local area by late Sunday into Monday. The continued advection of tropical moisture will bring PWATs above 2", nearing 2.5" by late Sunday afternoon. Numerous showers on Saturday for much of the area, with the coverage of numerous to widespread showers expanding on Sunday as moisture aloft continues to increase ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. With the abundant moisture levels, waves of heavy downpours will be possible as showers and storms develop this weekend, leading to the threat of localized flooding, especially for training showers and storms. With the overall flow mainly from the southeast and south, the focus for most activity will likely be over inland locations between the I-75 and I-95 corridors.

Daytime highs for this upcoming weekend will reach into the upper 80s, primarily due to passing showers, storms, and cloud cover. Overnight Lows in the lower to mid 70s, warmer temperatures along coastal locations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Strong northeast flow pattern Tuesday through Wednesday, with potential for Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding, Deadly Surf, and Gusty Coastal Conditions.

- Potential for rounds of heavy rainfall, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out

As the cold front pushes southward, a local nor'easter is expected to develop during the upcoming week. This will bring a plethora of hazards as strong wind gusts develop over the local waters and towards coastal locations of SE GA and NE FL. As wind gusts near the 40-45 mph range along the coast, wind advisories could be needed Tuesday and through midweek. With the elevated northeasterly winds persisting for much of the upcoming week, tidal flooding will also be of concern as the astronomical tides begin increasing with the approaching New Moon, with minor to possible low-end Moderate tidal flooding potentially into next weekend. Dangerous surf conditions, Rip Currents, and minor to moderate beach erosion will also be likely due to the elevated winds. As PWATs remain near or above 2", this could support periods of heavy downpours for any showers or storms that develop during the upcoming week. The sinking frontal boundary will be the primary driver for the coverage of showers and storms during the upcoming week. Current guidance suggest the highest coverage will be on Monday with numerous to widespread showers for SE GA and NE FL, with coverage shifting southward as the boundary pushes southward and along the coast with the developing Nor'easter as the week progresses.

Cooler temperatures develop behind the frontal boundary, with highs in the upper 70s behind the front, mid to upper 80s ahead of the front.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

A shield of multi-layered VFR cloud cover is slowly spreading northward into Georgia early this morning. Morning cloud cover should prevent fog formation at NE FL terminals this morning. Potential for MVFR to IFR stratus and light fog remains at terminals across SE GA, primarily along and north of US 82.

Unsettled weather returns today and through the evening as numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms lead to periods of restrictions at most regional airfields. Initial wave of convection may develop as early as 16z with coverage growing along the sea breeze through the afternoon; the second wave of downpours may overspread regional terminals after sunset as an upper disturbance pushes northeastward. Reductions to IFR to LIFR is possible due to visibility-restricting downpours. Outside of shower and thunderstorm outflow influence, east- southeasterly winds will be favored at 8-12 knots this afternoon.

MARINE

High pressure ridge over the western Atlantic through the weekend will bring breezy southeast winds over local waters while a surge of tropical moisture promotes increasing showers and thunderstorms. By early next week, strong high pressure will wedge down the east coast, pushing the cold front through the local waters by Monday night. This will bring a sharp surge of northeast winds and building seas, making Small Craft Advisory conditions likely on Monday night, with wind gusts potentially reaching Gale Force and seas rising to 8 to 10 feet or higher offshore Tuesday through at least Thursday.

Rip Currents: Enough of an onshore flow and 2 to 3ft breakers will keep a low-end moderate risk at the local beaches today. Over the weekend, a solid Moderate risk is expected as a moderate onshore swell reaches the beaches. Dangerous surf conditions with potential for high surf and very strong rip current channels are likely to develop Tuesday and continue through the end of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Poor Dispersions Through The Weekend

Increasing chances of showers and storms Today and through the weekend as onshore flow will bring tropical moisture into the area. An approaching frontal boundary will lead to rounds of showers and storms to develop this weekend. Lower mixing heights across much of the area will lead to poor Dispersions to develop over the next couple of days. By the upcoming week, as the frontal boundary pushes south across the area, northeasterly flow develops leading to a period of elevated winds primarily along the coast, with wind advisories likely heading into midweek.

Fog Potential...Patchy fog inland this morning. Gusty and erratic winds in and near thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible each day this period.

EQUIPMENT

The KVAX Doppler Radar in Valdosta GA near Moody AFB remains out of service until further notice. Please utilize KTLH (Tallahassee), KJGX (Robins AFB), or KJAX (Jacksonville) during the outage period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 88 73 86 72 / 70 40 60 40 SSI 85 76 84 75 / 40 40 70 60 JAX 87 74 86 73 / 60 40 50 40 SGJ 87 76 86 75 / 50 50 50 40 GNV 89 73 87 72 / 60 60 60 30 OCF 89 75 88 73 / 70 60 50 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.