textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today at All Area Beaches. Small Craft Advisories for Offshore Waters through this Evening. High Rip Current Risk Continues on Tuesday at the Northeast FL Beaches.

- Isolated Afternoon T'Storms Possible Tues through Sun, Mainly Inland

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Inland Each Morning from Tues through Sun

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Monday Night:

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues at All Area Beaches Today

- Elevated Seas and Small Craft Advisory Conditions Continue for the Offshore Waters

- Patchy Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight at Inland Locations

Onshore flow regime continues today and tonight as high pressure remains north and east of the area, and an inverted trough also remains in place over area waters. The surface high will continue to very gradually nudge east/southeast through tonight, which will slightly veer low level winds more towards the southeast through tonight. Enough low level moisture will be in place for some isolated showers to pop up from east to west through the afternoon and early evening as the onshore sea breeze progresses inland. T'storm chances are generally low thanks to ample dry air in the mid levels, though the highest chances for a very isolated storm will likely be near or west of the I-75 corridor in northeast FL this evening as this east coast flow converges with a weak Gulf of Mexico sea breeze. Otherwise, rather rough marine/beach conditions also continue through tonight with a high rip current risk area wide and surf as high as 5 feet at times. Highs today will range from the low to mid 70s east of about I-95 to the upper 70s to low 80s inland.

Tonight, hi-res guidance suggests that a few showers may linger near I-75 in northeast FL through about 9-10 pm or so before dissipating leaving just some high clouds and a light breeze near the coast and St. Johns River Basin, and even lighter further inland. Patchy fog will be expected inland where winds die down enough, especially near areas that receive any rainfall. Min temps will be slightly milder tonight, generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered Showers & Isolated T'storm Potential Tuesday and Wednesday Afternoons

Diurnal showers with a potential for thunderstorms with breezy southeasterly winds are anticipated through midweek high pressure moves off to the east and a prevailing southeasterly flow holds over the region. Above average temperatures will be in place through midweek with daily high temps reaching into the mid 80s over inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s for areas closer to the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s and lower 60s over inland areas and into the lower to mid 60s nearer to the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Showers & T'storms Each Afternoon & Evening - Above Normal Temps Persist for the Long Term

Pattern of southeasterly flow with scattered diurnal showers and possible isolated thunderstorms will continue through Friday with chances for storms increasing over the weekend as PWAT levels rise to be over 1.75 inches by Sunday as a cold frontal boundary presses in from out of the northwest. Above average temps will persist through the end of the week and on into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the rest of the afternoon and evening along with breezy onshore winds around 10kts, strongest at coastal terminals. Have kept VCSH at SGJ and GNV for at least the next several hours as isolated SHRA will continue to pop up, though direct chances of rainfall are low. Patchy fog will be possible inland early Tuesday Morning, and therefore have included MVFR restrictions at this time at VQQ and GNV. Breezy onshore southeast flow returns Tuesday afternoon, especially near the coast once again.

MARINE

High pressure situated northeast of the region will migrate slowly east-southeastward through tonight, becoming centered near Bermuda on Tuesday. This feature will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states this week, maintaining breezy onshore winds, especially for offshore waters. Small Craft Advisory level seas will continue for offshore waters through early this evening, with seas then gradually diminishing near shore. Elevated seas will persist offshore through midweek, with another round of Small Craft Advisory level seas possible late this week for the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida. Meanwhile, coastal troughing positioned over the northeast Florida waters will continue to generate isolated to widely scattered showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. This trough will lift northward by late week, with another inverted trough then approaching our waters from the east late this week that will likely generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. Higher chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive late this weekend with the next frontal system.

Rip Currents:

Breakers will continue to gradually diminish at area beaches early this week, with values of 4-6 feet at the northeast FL beaches today and 3-4 feet at the southeast GA keeping a high risk of rip currents in place. Breakers will only fall to the 3-5 foot range at the northeast FL beaches on Tuesday, keeping a high risk in place. Breakers of 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches on Tuesday will likely yield a higher end moderate risk. Breezy southeasterly winds may keep breakers in the 3-5 foot range from midweek through the upcoming weekend, with at least a moderate rip current risk likely to continue that may become high late this week or this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Possible Past Midweek

High pressure will remain in control over the next several days as it slowly drifts north and east of the area. Overall wind flow will become easterly this afternoon, and then southeasterly by Tuesday continuing through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be expected each afternoon and evening, mainly over inland areas as a sea breeze progresses inland. This flow regime will keep RH values well above critical daily, along with dispersions in the fair to good range into midweek. Higher dispersions past midweek will be possible as mixing heights increase.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Area-wide fog developments will build in tonight and into Tuesday morning with more dense formations occurring over inland areas. Patchy fog potential is expected each morning through the latter part of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 79 58 83 60 / 10 0 10 0 SSI 73 61 75 62 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 80 60 82 60 / 10 0 10 0 SGJ 77 62 78 62 / 20 0 20 10 GNV 82 59 85 60 / 20 0 30 0 OCF 83 61 86 62 / 20 0 30 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470- 472-474.