textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Noreaster Conditions through Saturday. Life-threatening Rip Currents and Surf Zone Conditions. Minor Tidal Flooding this Evening and possibly Friday Morning for. Elevated tides in the St Johns River through the Weekend. Minor Beach Erosion Possible through Saturday. Small Craft Advisories through Early Saturday Morning. Brief Heavy Downpours through Tonight for Coastal NE FL

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

-Potential for coastal flooding around times of high tide

-Elevated onshore winds and dangerous rip current/surf conditions

Spotty showers near the coast will continue Tonight, with greatest chances along the NE FL coast.

As high pressure builds from the north northwest through the night, inland sky cover will decrease, but the coastal areas remain cloudy.

Lows will be in the 60s Tonight, with the warmest readings along the coast.

SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Gusty North to Northeasterly Winds Will Maintain Marine and Coastal Impacts on Friday and Saturday.

- Minor Coastal Flooding Likely Around Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast Beginning through Friday. Tidal Flooding Possible within the St. Johns River Basin Beginning on Friday.

- Much Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected, Especially on Friday and Saturday Nights as Winds Diminish at Inland Locations.

Cool dry air associated with high pressure to the north will continue to press down over the forecast area bringing dry weather, cooler temperatures, and clearing skies for Friday and Saturday. Breezy northerly-northeasterly winds will continue into Friday and then lessen on Saturday as the tightened pressure gradient begins to lax and low pressure over the Atlantic moves northward. Risk of tidal flooding will drop off by Saturday with the higher risk for rip currents diminishing overnight Saturday. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the beginning of the weekend will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s over inland areas with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid 50s over southeast Georgia and in the upper 50s and lower 60s for northeast Florida.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor Tidal Flooding is Likely Around Times of High Tide within the St. Johns River Basin through Early Next Week.

- Warming Trend Takes Shape Next Week, But an Unseasonably Dry Air Mass Persists Across Our Region Sunday through Monday.

Initially dry weather conditions will be in place on Sunday with chances for showers and storms gradually increasing through midweek as high pressure ridging from out of the east adjusts the prevailing flow to become more southerly, resulting in the drier air over the region being gradually replaced by more moist maritime air from out of the south by the latter part of the week. Temperatures will experience a warning trend through the weekend and into the beginning of next week, rising to be above the seasonal average by the end of the period with max temps rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Restrictions in stratus will continue early this period, except for KGNV where the stratus is expected to be VFR. Restrictions will last the longest at KCRG, KSSI, and KSGJ, where a trend to VFR will occur Friday afternoon. Winds will remain elevated this period, especially near the coast.

MARINE

Low pressure will strengthen well to the northeast of the region through the end of the week, tracking further to the north of the area through the weekend. High pressure will build down the eastern US coastal states Today pushing a backdoor cold front south of the waters. The gradient between the high, and the front trailing from the low to the northeast, will result in enhanced northeasterly winds and waves lasting through at least Friday. A prolonged period of Small Craft conditions will continue through at least Saturday. There is also potential for occasional gusts to near Gale force today into this evening. These conditions ease this weekend as high pressure weakens and the aforementioned low pulls further away from the area.

Rip Currents: There will be several days of strong and dangerous rip currents with as elevated risk through the upcoming weekend. Additionally, strong northeasterly winds will increase breakers to 5- 8 feet through Thursday afternoon, increasing the surf danger.

FIRE WEATHER

Scattered showers will be possible for locations along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor through around sunrise on Friday. Otherwise, a drier air mass will gradually overspread our region from Friday through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 30 percent on Friday afternoon for locations north of Waycross in southeast Georgia, with these lower values then expanding to inland locations throughout our region from Saturday through Monday. Otherwise, gusty north-northeasterly surface and transport winds will counter abundant low cloud cover and low mixing heights today to create fair to good daytime dispersion values. Surface speeds will remain sustained around 20-25 mph at coastal locations through this evening, with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph expected. These gusty conditions will continue overnight tonight for locations east of I-95, creating elevated nighttime dispersion values at coastal locations. Gusty northerly surface and transport winds will continue on Friday area-wide, with decreasing cloud cover and rising mixing heights yielding good daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly on Saturday, with breezy conditions persisting at coastal locations. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide.

Fog Potential...Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon that occurs on Saturday. Very breezy north northeasterly onshore winds along coastal locations will persist into Friday evening and combine with these increasing astronomical tides to create minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast and then into the St. Johns River This evening through at least Saturday. Minor coastal flooding will be possible along the Atlantic coast beginning with this evening's high tide, where water levels of 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) are preliminarily forecast. Minor flooding will then likely expand to the St. Johns River basin by Friday and will then be possible around times of high tide through the weekend and possibly into next week, as rising astronomical tides beyond the date of the Full Moon result in a "trapped tide" situation, keeping water levels elevated, generally at 1-2 feet above MHHW during each tide cycle for most locations within the basin.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 79 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 64 80 64 80 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 65 80 60 81 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 69 79 65 81 / 40 10 0 0 GNV 65 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 67 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125- 132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for GAZ154- 166. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ452-454- 472-474.