textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Wet Pattern through Tuesday with Daily Downpours & Storms. Highest Thunderstorm Coverage During the Afternoon & Evening. Storm Hazards: Localized Flooding, Wind Gusts of 40-50 mph & Frequent. Isolated Severe Storms Possible on Tuesday Afternoon & Evening with

- Potential for Localized Flooding

- Strengthening Northeasterly Winds on Tuesday Night & Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory Conditions Likely Tuesday Night - Wednesday Night. High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches Wednesday through Thursday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy fog possible early this morning - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with a few strong to severe storms possible

A cold front will move south toward the region this morning, reaching the Altamaha around dawn. Light flow and low level moisture will lead to potential for patchy fog inland.

The cold front will move south across the area Today, and push into north central FL tonight. The boundary will help to focus convection this afternoon and evening. A surge of winds will move south across the local waters Tonight following the front, which will result in elevated and gusty winds at the coast.

Highs will range from 85 to 90 over SE GA, to the lower 90s over NE FL. Lows Tonight will range from 60 to 65 over interior SE GA, to the lower 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Onshore Winds at Coastal Locations Wednesday into Wednesday night

- Rough, Building Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents on Wednesday and likely into Thursday

A deep trough along the southeast U.S. early Wednesday will help push a cold front well to the south of the area and surface high pressure will build in behind it. Initially a moist airmass and a chance of showers on Wednesday but much drier and cooler air will filter in through the day which will limit convective potential. Breezy northeast expected especially at the coast with winds of 15- 25 mph with gusts of about 35 mph. Certainly not as warm and in fact unseasonably cool with highs barely able to reach 80 at the coast, with around 80 or lower 80s inland. These highs will be about 10 degrees below normal. Wednesday night, mostly clear skies and still breezy at the coast keeping lows there around 70, while inland lower 60s over northeast FL, and then upper 50s inland southeast GA. These lows still a good 5-8 degrees away from records.

On Thursday, weak high pressure will be just north of the area and the pressure gradient will be much weaker, with lighter easterly low level flow, and broad high pressure overhead. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and a bit warmer. Slightly more moisture moves in on a northeast flow, but all in all little in way of any rain chance outside of a very isolated shower. Max temps in the lower to mid 80s anticipated, warmest inland areas. Thursday night, little change as high pressure remains to the north. Some low level convergence near the coastal areas could see some support for a couple of showers for northeast FL. Anticipate lows will be a bit warmer compared to Wed night due to modified airmass.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rough Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents Continue at Area Beaches Friday and possibly into the weekend.

- Gradual Warm-Up Forecast from Friday through the Weekend with Dry Weather Likely to Continue.

Mean high pressure system over the Carolinas on Friday will shift offshore by Friday night but ridging remains intact just north of the area. A 500 mb high pressure center will continue the southeast states Friday then weaken and shift east while a mid level low pressure system over the Bahamas shifts back to the west toward southern FL and FL Straits over the weekend. Overall, we remain in a dry weather pattern with east to southeast low level flow and below normal rain chances for our region. Highs will warm to upper mid to 80s by Friday inland, followed by afternoon highs approaching 90/ lower 90s for the weekend. Breezy onshore winds through Friday should keep coastal highs in the lower to mid 80s, with mid to upper 80s possible by the weekend. The unusually dry air mass will keep inland lows in the 60s Friday night and Saturday night. A light onshore breeze will keep coastal lows around 70/lower 70s late in the upcoming week, warming to the lower to mid 70s Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Convection is expected to develop this afternoon and continue through the evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Northeasterly winds develop as a front pushes through, with gusty conditions persisting through 12Z across the area.

MARINE

A cold front will slide south across the area through tonight. A surge of winds will move south across the waters behind the front, leading to a period of Small Craft Advisory level conditions Tonight through Thursday.

High pressure will build to the north Wednesday through Friday. The high will build more toward the northeast over the weekend.

Rip Currents: Increasing to High Risk this evening, and continuing at high risk through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY THROUGH - Friday

AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL - Locations Tonight And Wednesday Night

As a cold front will moves into the area today, high rain chances are expected with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms also possible this afternoon and evening. Elevated transport wind will result in areas of high dispersions today inland areas.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger into the morning hours on Wednesday for locations south of Interstate 10. Meanwhile, a drier and cooler air mass will filter into our region from north to south as breezy northeast surface and transport winds overspread our entire area. These breezy winds will yield good to high daytime dispersion values. Min RH values may drop as low as 30 percent inland southeast GA Wednesday afternoon. Surface and transport winds will shift to east-northeast on Thursday and easterly by Friday, with areas of high daytime dispersion values expected inland and good values elsewhere on both days.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible early this morning for inland portions of northeast and north central Florida. Gusty and erratic winds are possible around thunderstorm activity on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 61 79 58 / 60 30 10 10 SSI 86 72 79 72 / 60 30 10 10 JAX 92 69 80 67 / 70 40 10 10 SGJ 91 71 81 71 / 60 70 20 10 GNV 93 68 81 64 / 70 70 20 0 OCF 91 70 80 66 / 70 80 30 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 7 PM EDT this evening through Friday afternoon for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 7 PM EDT this evening through Friday afternoon for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ454-474.