textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered To Numerous Severe Storms Monday Areawide. Potential Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts, Isolated Tornadoes, and Hail.

- Freeze Watch for Portions of Inland Southeast GA Monday Night

- Small Craft Advisory Late Tonight through Tuesday

- Frost and Freeze for Inland Southeast GA & Suwannee Valley Tuesday night

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Scattered to Numerous Severe Storms Today. Potential Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts, Isolated Tornadoes, Hail, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Heavy Downpours.

- Light Freeze possible late tonight inland Southeast Georgia.

Today: Forecast on track for strong pre-frontal squall line to push from NW to SE through SE GA/NE FL with scattered to numerous severe storm activity. All Hazards are in play with damaging winds of 50-70 mph, isolated tornadoes, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Timing still shows leading edge of this squall line pushing into inland SE GA/Suwannee Valley by the mid-late morning hours and reaching the I-95 corridor by the early afternoon hours, then into the Atlantic waters by the late afternoon hours. Other than the usual straight line wind threat along the squall line, will be closely monitoring discrete supercell activity ahead of the line for potential rotation and isolated tornadoes. Gradient winds out of the south and southwest ahead of the squall line in diurnal heating are expected to increase to sustained 15-25 mph with gusts in the 30- 40 mph range, but will likely fall short of Wind Advisory criteria and the main messaging will be strong winds due to severe storms anyways. Still expecting another day of above normal temps, although not quite as warm as Sunday afternoon, Max temps will reach into the lower/middle 80s across NE FL from the I-75 corridor eastward to the Atlantic Coast, while the earlier timing of the squall line will hold Max temps in the mid/upper 70s across most of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley.

Tonight: Following the cold frontal passage a much colder air mass will plunge into the region along with skies becoming partly to mostly clear towards morning. Low temps will plummet into the lower to middle 30s across inland SE GA and middle to upper 30s across inland NE FL and around 40F along the Atlantic Coast. Gusty NW winds at 15-20G30 mph in the evening will slowly fade to around 10 mph during the overnight hours. There is enough confidence in low temps around 32F across inland SE GA to the NW of Waycross to post a Freeze Watch for these locations, along with some patchy frost possible for some inland locations where the wind drops off closer to 5 mph by sunrise Tuesday morning. The NW winds along with the much colder temps will drive wind chills down into the 25-30F range across SE GA and around 30F across most of NE FL, but still likely just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria at this point.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Freezing low temperatures and frost Tuesday nigh for inland southeast Georgia

Much cooler and drier air will be present behind the frontal passage, with high temperatures Tuesday staying in the 50s areawide with breezy northwesterly winds. Tuesday night, northerly winds will calm and with clear skies it will dip into the 30s for inland areas, and 40s for the coast and St. Johns river basin. A light freeze and widespread frost is likely for inland southeast Georgia, with patchy to areas of frost expanding into the Suwannee Valley and I-10 corridor area.

It'll warm up a few more degrees Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to 60s with winds shifting onshore as high pressure builds to the northeast. Low temperatures will stay just above freezing Wednesday night, in the mid 30s to mid 40s inland, near 50 along the Atlantic coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming trend late in the period

Temperatures will continue to warm up through the weekend as dry conditions continue. Onshore winds will generally keep coastal temperatures a few degrees cooler than inland locations, and by the weekend inland areas will see highs in the lower to mid 80s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Shower activity lessening early this morning with mostly VFR conds expected along with SW winds at 5-10 knots. SW winds increase steadily to 15G25 knots through the morning hours ahead of the squall line, then still on track for potential severe storms at all terminals in the 16-20Z time frame and will continue the 25G35 knot wind gusts in TEMPO groups, along with MVFR CIGS and IFR VSBYS in TSRA activity, then some post squall line MVFR CIGS and VCSH with lesser SW-W winds 10-15 knots in the 20-24Z time frame, before becoming VFR later in the TAF period with mid/high VFR clouds remaining.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory conditions develop this morning ahead of a strong cold frontal boundary which will push into the local waters this afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to impact our local waters this afternoon, with the potential for damaging wind gusts, waterspouts, and large hail. Winds will shift to westerly following the passage of the strong cold front, with strong northwesterly winds forecast tonight and Tuesday morning throughout our local waters with gale force gusts possible as high pressure builds into the southeastern states. Winds will shift to northerly on Tuesday afternoon and then northeasterly by Wednesday as high pressure shifts northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic coast. This strengthening high pressure center will wedge down the southeastern seaboard later this week, creating another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds and seas are expected to diminish by Friday afternoon.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rips is expected in the South to Southwest flow today ahead of the cold front with surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range, with a continued Moderate risk on Tuesday with Northwest to North flow and surf/breakers in the 2-3 ft range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersion Monday And Tuesday - Critically Low Minrh Tuesday Through Friday - Scattered Severe Storms Monday

A strong cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday, bringing scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Much cooler and drier air will be present behind the cold front on Tuesday. Breezy southwest winds ahead of the front Monday will promote patchy high daytime dispersion, and patchy high dispersion continues Tuesday as winds shift northwesterly behind the front. MinRH values will drop below 30% for most inland locations Tuesday, and remain low through Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. A light freeze and patchy fog will be possible for portions of inland southeast Georgia Monday night, with more confidence in a freeze and widespread frost Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 76 32 54 30 / 100 10 0 0 SSI 75 37 55 41 / 80 20 0 0 JAX 82 36 57 38 / 80 20 0 0 SGJ 82 38 58 44 / 80 30 0 0 GNV 81 36 58 37 / 90 20 0 0 OCF 83 37 59 38 / 80 20 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>135-149. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.