textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Advisory for Coastal Southeast GA & Northeast FL. Sea Fog along the Nearshore Waters This Morning. Widespread Dense Fog Spreading Inland through the Early Morning Hours. Nightly Areas of Dense Fog Likely through the Week

- Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds This Week. Elevated Surf and High Risk for Rip Currents Likely by Tuesday and Wednesday

- Record High Temperatures Later This Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:

- Dense Fog Across the I-95 Corridor and St Johns River Basin This Morning

Dense sea fog has expanded inland across the I-95 corridor and now into the St Johns river basin lowering visibilities to a quarter mile or less. High clouds building across SE GA and a more north- northeast wind shift have limited the dense fog expansion in SE GA to just Glynn and Camden this morning. Calmer winds inland may also develop patchy radiation fog. Fog/stratus will lift and dissipate from west to east mid-late morning and potentially linger into the afternoon along the immediate coast. High pressure shifting off the New England coast will push a backdoor cold front southward across the area today developing a surge of northeasterly winds. Highs today will range from the mid 60s along the SE GA coast to the low 80s along the I-75 corridor. Mild cold air advection and an increase in low level moisture with the onshore flow will set the stage for another night of sea fog developing in the SE GA waters and shifting inland. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Nightly Fog, Possibly Locally Dense - Moderate to High Rip Currents

A stagnant pattern will develop beneath a stout upper ridge through midweek leading to warmer than normal temperatures by Wednesday. At the surface, a long ridge axis will remain stretched across the Deep South, leading to daily onshore breezes which will keep the coastal zones around 5-10 degrees cooler each afternoon.

Despite the warming, moist onshore flow, there isn't likely to be much significant rain but coastal showers may develop Tuesday through Wednesday as coastal convergence increases along a weak inverted trough sitting over the waters. Some of that shower activity will be directed inland by the low level onshore flow.

This setup will be conducive to nightly episodes of fog. Overall there isn't supreme confidence in the fog extent but locally dense fog is certainly possible. One consideration will be the potential for Dense Sea Fog to be pushed inland during the evening Wednesday with current SREF probs are already indicating 60% probability of fog over the SE GA waters Wednesday afternoon.

Warming trend will be underway through midweek as highs push into the low to mid 80s by Tuesday afternoon for inland areas. But as mentioned, the onshore flow will keep coastal locations relatively cooler with highs only reaching the lower 70s. Overnight Lows are expected to commonly read mid to upper 50s to low 60s

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Weather Highlights:

- Chances for coastal showers continue Wednesday - Record High Temperatures possible Thursday through the Weekend - Isolated Thunderstorms Inland Thursday/Friday

Onshore flow will persist through much of the upcoming week, allowing for moisture to push inland by the later part of the upcoming week as winds shift to be southeasterly. With the increase in moisture (PWATs ~1.25), isolated to scattered afternoon showers are expected along the sea breeze. With temperatures trending to rise above seasonal averages, modest instability may encourage an isolated storm or two during the afternoon hours Thursday and Friday, particularly for inland NE FL. Periods of sea fog will also be possible due to the warm, moist air moving over the cool coastal waters.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Widespread dense fog that has been in place most of the overnight hours is thinning from north to south this morning with KSSI improving to VFR. These improvement trends appear to reach Jax Metro sites around 1130-1230z. VFR conditions are expected areawide by 1430z as fog lifts and subsequently dissipates. Winds will be favored from the ENE throughout the day and may become mildly gusty at the coastal terminals (gusts 12-18 kts) this afternoon. One concern will be timing of any sea fog/stratus development and when it may push into KSSI this evening; this could be as early as 5 PM but confidence is low. Low stratus and fog cannot be ruled out tonight but confidence doesn't justify an aggressive mention of fog or low vsby at this time.

MARINE

Dense sea fog across the nearshore waters may linger into late morning hours. High pressure will strengthen to the north northeast today, as a coastal trough develops over the waters. The high will move more toward the northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, with the coastal trough gradually weakening. The high will be centered to the east northeast Thursday into the weekend, with the ridge extending across forecast area.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected at area beaches with some persistent onshore flow and surf height around 2 to 4 feet. Rip current risk increases later today into Tuesday as onshore flow strengthens.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Today And Tuesday

A pattern shift with strong upper ridge building across the region this week will lead to near record temperatures Thursday and Friday. Critical weather conditions don't appear to align through the next week but the transition to moist, and mildly unstable, airmass later this week may lead to a moderate sea breeze and the potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for inland districts Thursday and Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread dense expected this morning and the potential continues each morning through the week. Expect patchy dense fog each day for inland areas, where there will be less of wind influence.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 77 53 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 65 55 67 57 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 76 54 77 57 / 0 0 10 0 SGJ 74 58 74 59 / 0 10 20 10 GNV 80 55 83 58 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 82 56 84 59 / 0 0 20 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ023-024- 030-031-038-124-125-132-136>138-140-225-232-233-236-237- 240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ153-154- 165-166-264-350-364. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-452- 454.