textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches this Weekend. Moderate Risk at Southeast GA beaches

- Areas of Dense Fog again late Tonight / Monday Morning. Visibilities 1/4 Mile or less at times

- Strong Cold Frontal Passage expected Thursday/Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected over marine waters. Patchy frost possible inland SE GA this weekend

NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Areas of dense fog possible again late tonight

- Elevated risk of rip currents at local beaches

Dry conditions today with breezy NE winds along the coast as high pressure builds to the north over the Carolinas. A weak coastal trough will linger over the offshore coastal waters which will allow for slightly higher moisture levels near the coast due to shallow low level moist onshore flow around the circulation of the trough feature. This will continue to provide fields of cumulus clouds underneath high level cirrus clouds moving quickly east across the area. Scattered showers will remain far away from the coast over the offshore waters, so no showers expected over the coast or inland this afternoon.

Slight increase in heights today as mid to upper ridging builds across the deep south/Gulf coast with slightly above normal temps around 80F over NE FL and upper 70s over inland SE GA with mid 70s along the coast from cooler onshore NE flow. Winds will remain 10-15 mph gusting to 20 to 25 mph at the coast, decreasing to 5-10 mph along I-95 and US-17, then diminishing to 3-6 mph further inland due to the influence of high pressure.

Tonight, fog will develop after midnight as low level moisture, subsidence, and radiational cooling due to mostly clear skies with some thin cirrus clouds aloft combine. There is potential for Dense Fog to develop again, with calm winds inland and very light NE winds at the coast 3-6 mph and a Dense Fog advisory is possible before sunrise. Lows will be cool in the upper 40s over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley to the low to mid 50s over inland NE FL and north central FL.Warmer lows in the low to mid 60s along the NE FL coast and upper 50s over SE GA coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy Fog Early Tuesday morning

- Drier Conditions Expected

Surface high pressure ridge will be the dominate feature during this period with subtle, weak troughing over the inland areas during the daytime period. The mean sfc high center may begin to shift east and southeast of the area by Tuesday afternoon allowing sfc wind to become light south and southwest. There is enough low level moisture for some daytime cumulus to form each day, mainly eastern zones, but mostly mid to high clouds at times from an upstream trough over TX/Lower MS valley. Generally expect skies to be mostly clear to partly cloudy. Otherwise, a dry forecast for this period. Patchy fog is expected late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, some of which could be dense over parts of northeast FL. This is supported by latest RRFS and GFS sounding.

High temperatures for the beginning of the week will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 40s for southeast Georgia to the Suwannee Valley, and in the lower to mid 50s for rest of northeast Florida, except along the coast min temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy conditions by end the week and into the weekend

- Turning more cooler Friday through the weekend. Patchy Frost Possible inland southeast GA This Weekend

- Small Craft Advisory Likely Over Area Waters Beginning Late Thursday

Southern stream shortwave will pass west-east over the area Wednesday, but strong shortwave troughs will help amplify a large trough over the eastern CONUS from Thursday into Friday night before beginning to lift out gradually during the weekend. There are some slight chances, about 10-20 percent, for showers on Wednesday into Thursday as PWAT values rise slightly prior to a strong cold frontal passage on Thursday. Breezy westerly winds on Thursday become breezy northwest on Friday and Saturday. Probable wind gusts look to be around 30-35 mph for Friday and Saturday, per NBM guidance and GFS soundings.

Clearing skies and dry weather will be in place by the weekend as high pressure and cold dry air settles in over the forecast area.

Temperatures will be near and slightly above the seasonal average for midweek, but dropping to be below average (and coolest of the season so far), by the end of the week and into the weekend. Coldest day looks to be Saturday with highs around 60 degrees. With lows in 35-40 degree range for inland southeast GA Saturday morning and Sunday morning, patchy frost will be possible, especially in wind sheltered areas. Widespread wind chills in the 30s are forecast for both Saturday morning and Sunday morning as well.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the first half of the 18Z TAF period with fog developing late tonight after 06Z bringing restrictions for IFR/LIFR/VLIFR visibility and ceilings to all sites with exception of SGJ. Northeast winds 6-10 knots at the Duval county terminals and near 10 knots at the coast will diminish after 22Z as high pressure builds influences from the north and west with winds becoming near calm inland and around 5 knots at SSI/SGJ/CRG. Prevailing MVFR/IFR fog develops after 08Z with restrictions for LIFR/VLIFR through 12Z, then fog lifting to MVFR 13-14Z, then VFR after 14Z. Light northwest winds and mostly clear skies expected late Monday morning into early afternoon.

MARINE

Light northeast winds prevail until high pressure building eastward into the Carolinas and elevates northeast winds to near caution levels this afternoon. Seas will also remain elevated, but just below Caution levels for the offshore waters through Monday. High pressure will then weaken over the southeastern states by Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside. Strong cold frontal passage on Thursday will bring offshore flow and Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will continue on Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents:

High risk of Rip Currents Today for northeast Florida beaches, with moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches due to lingering long period swells impacting the local beaches along with onshore flow. Light winds and decreasing swells will keep Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low min RH in the upper 20s to lower 30s inland southeast GA Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon - Areas low daytime dispersion near the i-75 corridor this afternoon

Conditions will continue to be dry through the weekend and into early next week with light winds, except for breezy northeast winds along the coastal areas due to the sea breeze. Due to the lighter winds - both at the surface and the transport wind - poor dispersions are likely today and Monday.

Though afternoon humidities will trend lower Monday and Tuesday, critical humidity is unlikely through at least mid week. After a brief rebound in temperatures and humidity through the middle of next week, another strong cold front will push through the area Friday bringing chilly conditions and breezy winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog likely early Monday morning. Patchy fog possible early Tuesday morning, mainly over northeast FL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 49 77 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 57 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 55 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 62 78 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 55 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 56 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.