textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Dense Fog Possible Early This Morning and Thursday morning, Mainly Along & West of I-75

- High Risk of Rip Currents at All Areas Beaches

- Near Record High Temperatures on Wednesday Afternoon

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Thursday & Thursday Evening. Isolated Strong Storms Possible Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, & Small Hail. Beneficial Rainfall Expected Area-Wide

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Thursday Night through Friday Morning

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

-Areas of fog are possible during the predawn and early morning hours This morning and again Thursday morning, mainly along and west of the Interstate 75 corridor.

-Near Record High Temperatures This Afternoon.

Skies remain mostly clear early this morning with help from strong subsidence in the mid and high levels as a strong mid/upper level ridge extends northeastward over the area from the central Gulf. Surface high pressure just south of Bermuda extending across north central FL is keeping very light southerly winds 5-8 mph at the coast and St Johns river with inland areas becoming generally calm with patchy fog observed west of highway 301 and areas of fog developing just west of I-75. The fog will lift just after sunrise.

Today, the ridging aloft will begin to shift southeastward in response to an upstream deepening mid to upper level trough moving into the central US. The latter feature will push a strong cold front into the OH, TN, and lower MS valleys while surface high pressure ridge axis shifts across central FL to our south. The flow around the surface ridge will bring southerly to southwesterly winds of 5-10 mph over the area, before turning breezy at the coast as winds shift southeasterly 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph, while winds rise to around 10 mph inland with gusts up to 15 mph. Only few to scattered low level cumulus expected today with a few thin cirrus clouds allowing highs to rise into the low 90s between I-95 and I-75 that will likely eclipse daily record high values while seabreeze circulations keep areas nearer to the Gulf coast in the mid to upper 80s and the NE FL and SE GA coast limited to the lower 80s. Tonight, skies will begin mostly clear with increasing clouds well after midnight as the cold front moves through the deep south states. Showers ahead of the main line of T'storms will begin to shift into areas northwest of Alma around sunrise. Southwest winds will remain elevated around 10 mph over NW parts of SE GA and 5-10 mph elsewhere. Patchy to areas of fog may advect in from the NE Gulf waters towards I-75 along with low stratus, but the winds should limit overall dense fog potential. Lows will fall into the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Potential for Strong Thunderstorms Thursday

A pre-frontal line of showers and thunderstorms will move into inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley Thursday morning and then move into coastal SE GA and the rest of NE FL Thursday afternoon into evening. Strongest activity will likely be Thursday morning with lingering ample shear and lift but minimal diurnal instability. The convection will weaken as it moves through the day due to the main forcing for ascent lifting well north of the area. Temperatures will rise into the 80s over coastal NE FL Thursday afternoon which may reinvigorate storms with the diurnal heating. Otherwise, beneficial rain of a half an inch to an inch will be possible area-wide. The cold front will exit the area Thursday night. Overnight lows drop into the 40s across SE GA and 50s in NE FL.

High pressure will become centered to the east northeast Friday, with an inverted trough near the coast. This trough will keep the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast for north- central FL and coast NE FL. Highs Friday will range from around 70 at the coast, to the mid 70s to lower 80s inland. This pattern will remain into Friday night, with lows in the lower to mid 50s over SE GA, to the mid 50s to lower 60s NE FL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Increased Thunderstorm Chances Sunday into Monday

Showers and storms expand across NE FL on Saturday as a frontal boundary dissipates over central FL and moist SE flow develops. Moisture continues to advect from the south-southwest on Sunday as a cold front moves into the SE US. Rain chances increase area-wide Sunday into Monday ahead of the frontal passage. The cold front weakens when it moves through the area on Monday as the parent low lifts well northeastward. A strong storm cannot be ruled out but shear appears to be limited at this time. High pressure will build from the northwest Tuesday, bringing in a drier and noticeably cooler airmass.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail for the coastal TAF sites with MVFR fog at GNV and VQQ after 07Z with brief MVFR restrictions at GNV after 11Z with those sites returning to VFR by 13Z and continuing through the end of the TAF period. After calm winds early this morning away from the coast and Light southerly winds will resume to 5-8 knots after 13Z and increase to 10-12 knots along the coast with gusts near 20 knots as winds turn south southeasterly at SGJ, SSI and CRG after seabreeze passage between 16-19Z. Southwesterly winds will prevail at GNV from the Gulf seabreeze passage to around 10 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots. Few to scattered cumulus clouds will rise to 5.0-60 kft under some cirrus clouds, but no showers or T'storms expected. The winds will subside to 8-10 knots after 00Z and remain southerly for all sites except southwesterly at GNV.

MARINE

Surface high pressure will sink south of the waters today with southerly winds becoming southeasterly over the nearshore waters this afternoon due to Atlantic seabreeze circulation with winds elevating to exercise caution levels late this afternoon. Patchy sea fog will develop this morning and persist through the midday hours before lifting by afternoon. A cold front entering the southeastern states tonight and elevated southerly winds will spread into the offshore waters overnight as the front approaches.

The front will move towards the waters on Thursday morning and move through Thursday afternoon with showers and a few stronger thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will create Small Craft Advisory conditions throughout our local waters by late Thursday afternoon, with these conditions continuing on Thursday night and Friday morning as high pressure briefly builds over the Mid-Atlantic states. Winds will quickly shift to northerly on Thursday night and then northeasterly by early Friday before speeds gradually diminish on Friday afternoon and evening.

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents today at Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia beaches due to a breezy south-southeasterly winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze and persistent easterly ocean swell of 9-10 seconds. A moderate risk expected on Thursday due to mostly offshore flow and swells slowly diminishing to around 8 seconds.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Today And Thursday

Breezy southwesterly surface and transport winds develop today as a cold front begins to approach the region from the northwest leading high dispersions for inland SE GA. The Atlantic sea breeze will shift inland this afternoon shifting winds to south-southeasterly along the coast. A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through beginning Thursday morning and continue into the afternoon/evening hours. An isolated strong thunderstorm will be possible with this line mainly in the morning hours in inland southeast GA. Southwesterly winds increase on Thursday ahead of the front resulting in areas of high dispersions across northeast Florida mainly along the St Johns river basin. Friday into Saturday, high pressure will build just north of the region as the cold front exits to the south with drier conditions. Min RHs will drop to 35-40 percent over inland portions of Southeast Georgia on Saturday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Best chance for fog early this morning, along the I75 corridor, and coastal NE FL.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures: March 11: KJAX: 89/1967 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 88/1974 KAMG: 86/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures: March 11: KJAX: 66/1880 KCRG: 67/2015 KGNV: 64/1973 KAMG: 70/1975

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 89 63 76 46 / 0 60 90 30 SSI 81 64 76 52 / 0 40 90 40 JAX 91 64 84 54 / 0 30 90 40 SGJ 85 64 83 59 / 0 20 80 50 GNV 91 63 83 56 / 0 30 80 30 OCF 91 63 85 59 / 0 20 70 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.