textproduct: Jacksonville

NEAR TERM

(Today through Tonight) Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A shortwave trough will lift across the region today while weakening and pushing northeastward. The shortwave will move north of the area tonight. The precip associated with this system is currently located over the FL panhandle and southern AL and southwest GA. Given the presentation of the system on radar and the current guidance opted to include some low-end rain chances of about 20 percent for my west and northwest zones as isentropic ascent moves through. At the sfc, high pressure is north of the area and sfc analysis shows an inverted trough off the coast, more so over the offshore waters or a bit further out. The guidance keeps that trough over the coastal waters today and expect that some scattered showers and potential thunderstorm or two will be located there later today and into tonight. The trough may edge slightly closer to the coastline late tonight. With the sfc trough moving closer to the coast, leaned toward slightly higher rain chance than the NBM was showing for the coastal areas.

Otherwise, highs today will be muted by the cool north-northeast flow and the abundance of clouds for a good part of the day. Nudged temps down shown by the NBM guidance. Lows tonight expected to cool into the 50s most areas with mostly cloudy skies across the area.

The other forecast challenge is the fog forecast, which we expect patchy to areas of fog mainly in northeast FL this morning. Some locally dense fog will be possible toward Gainesville and Ocala/I-75 corridor. Patchy to areas of fog are expected again tonight as low stratus develops again. The fog may be locally dense in generally the same area early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Temperatures will be above normal Friday and Saturday as a trough begins to lift out of the area, easterly winds will allow for isolated showers near the coast on Friday. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the day, and highs will reach the 70s for northeast Florida and mid 60s to low 70s across southeast Georgia. As winds shift more southeasterly on Saturday, temperatures will warm up further, with all of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia reaching above 70 degrees. Rain chances will sit at 20-30% area-wide on Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest, which will pass through the region on Sunday. Low temperatures both nights will be mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

The cold front will make it's way through Georgia and northeast Florida on Sunday, with sufficient moisture and decent instability, PWATs will be near 1.5 inches for most of the area. Locally heavy downpours are possible, however with the quick moving system, storm total rainfall amounts are fairly low, less than 0.5 inches. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out given the instability and dynamics support, with the highest chances being in the afternoon. The NBM currently is highlighting inland southeast Georgia for the highest (30-50%) chances of Surface CAPE > 1000 J/kg, and the GFS is showing Bulk Shear near 35 knots, we will need to monitor the model progression closely for timing and strong to potentially marginally severe thunderstorm development.

Behind the front, drier air will briefly move in on Monday, however by Tuesday showers return as another front is forecast to pass through, prompting low rain chances across southeast Georgia. Temperatures will be able to stay warm through mid-week with highs reaching the 70s each day, until a cold front moves through Tuesday night, leaving New Years Day temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Widespread IFR and occasional LIFR expected this morning. We will see some improvement for GNV later today to MVFR cigs and possibly brief VFR cigs, but for the rest of the TAFs there is a chance IFR to low- end MVFR will stick around during the afternoon hours. We will see cigs lower again tonight to widespread IFR and then likely lower into LIFR for most of the TAFs by about 06z. North to northeast sfc winds today up to 8-14 kt, strongest at SSI. Winds will likely decrease tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

Breezy northerly winds over mainly the north marine zones today at about 15-20 kt, due to a inverted sfc trough off the southeast U.S. coast. Latest reading at ~2:40 AM from buoy 41008 showed 21 kt and seas near 7 ft. The forecast calls for small craft advisory conditions for the southeast GA waters with winds of about 15-20 kt and seas upwards of 5-7 ft. Supporting the stronger winds was the HREF showing winds of at least 20 kt with at least a 60 percent probability through today over the GA waters. A Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headline was placed in for today for northeast FL waters. Winds and seas will slowly come down later tonight and into Friday, but remain elevated to support SCEC headlines especially for the offshore waters. Winds and seas may drop a bit Saturday but still look to be near SCEC headlines offshore waters. South winds increase Sunday ahead of a cold front, with the cold frontal passage is forecast late Sunday/Sunday night. High pressure will build in early next week behind the front.

Rip Currents: Seas upward of 4-5 ft and strengthened north- northeast winds will support a high risk of dangerous rip currents today. Elevated risk, at least in the moderate range, (and possibly high at times), is expected again Friday through the weekend due to rough surf and the onshore flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 58 48 68 60 / 20 10 10 10 SSI 59 54 66 60 / 30 30 30 20 JAX 64 55 72 60 / 10 20 20 10 SGJ 67 58 71 61 / 10 30 30 10 GNV 70 55 76 61 / 10 10 20 0 OCF 74 57 78 62 / 10 10 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ450-470.