textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches

- Isolated Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms on Tuesday & Wednesday Across North Central FL

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Thursday

- Afternoon Heat Index Values Rise to 100 - 105 Friday through Sunday

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast through Tonight. Remaining showers will dissipate this evening, with a dry overnight expected. Patchy inland fog is forecast. Lows Tonight will trend near seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Mainly Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms, Mainly Across Inland Southeast GA - Increase in moisture and convective coverage by Wednesday across inland northeast Florida and north central Florida south of SR16. - Moderate rip current risk continues at northeast Florida beaches.

On Tuesday, surface ridging over the Mid Atlantic extends across SE Georgia and Northeast Florida in the morning, with ridge pushing further off into the Atlantic during the afternoon. As a result, the prevailing surface flow becomes easterly to southeasterly. The lingering dry air mass and subsidence associated with the ridge will support another largely rain-free day, although a brief isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out during the afternoon, particularly across inland southeast Georgia near the Altamaha River Basin. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s at the coast to around 90 degrees inland and north central FL. Overnight lows will again settle into the upper 60s and lower 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast.

By Wednesday, the ridge axis shifts further eastward, allowing low- level moisture to gradually increase across the area. This will support isolated to widely scattered afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms particularly south of Interstate 10, with the greatest coverage expected further south across inland northeast Florida and north central Florida south of SR16 where sea breeze interactions will be most favorable. High temperatures will continue a warming trend, reaching the upper 80s at the beaches to lower 90s inland, with a few inland locations approaching the middle 90s. Any convection will diminish after sunset, leaving partly cloudy skies and overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s.

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist at northeast Florida beaches through the period due to ongoing onshore flow and lingering ocean swell.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late this week with more pronounced increase of showers and storms this weekend. - Summertime humidity returns, with heat index values climbing into the 100 to 105 degree range and locally higher inland.

The extended period will feature a transition toward a more typical early-summer pattern across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Mid and upper level ridging will remain established across the eastern United States while surface high pressure off the Atlantic coast gradually shifts eastward. As a result, low-level moisture will steadily increase across the region, with a surface ridge axis becoming established over the Florida Peninsula.

Rain chances will gradually increase as the deeper moisture returns. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Thursday, with coverage increasing to scattered on Friday and becoming scattered to numerous during the weekend with moist southwesterly flow. Convection will remain primarily diurnally driven, with sea breeze boundaries serving as the main focus for thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will continue to run near to slightly above seasonal normals. Daily highs will generally reach the lower to middle 90s across most locations, with some inland areas potentially reaching the upper 90s by the weekend. As humidity levels rise, heat index values will increasingly become a concern, reaching the 100 to 105 degree range on a widespread basis by Friday through Sunday. Some locations over Clay and St. Johns counties can have heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees during the hottest part of Saturday afternoon if cloud cover and convective development remain delayed.

Overall, the forecast trend favors a return to a classic summertime regime featuring increasing humidity, daily afternoon thunderstorms, and elevated heat stress concerns heading into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail area wide through Tuesday Morning, except at VQQ where MVFR FG/BR is expected early Tuesday. Otherwise, No significant operational impacts expected through Tuesday Evening. Coastal sites and eastern Duval terminals will experience winds near 10kts with the diurnal sea breeze Tuesday, in addition to a few showers expected near the vicinity of SGJ. Thunder probabilities too low for any mention in the forecast at this time.

MARINE

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast through mid week, then more toward the east Thursday. The high will move off to the southeast Friday through the weekend as a trough of low pressure moves into the southeastern US.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues at all area beaches through midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will rebuild northeast of the region on Tuesday, maintaining a generally easterly flow and allowing a drier Atlantic air mass to overspread much of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will develop Wednesday and Thursday, mainly across inland areas where sea breeze interactions provide the greatest focus for convection. Southwest flow strengthens by Friday ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary tracking southward into the Mid South, leading to increasing moisture and instability across the region. Thunderstorm coverage will become more widespread late in the week, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend. The prevailing southwest flow will tend to keep the Atlantic Sea breeze pinned near the Interstate 95 and U.S. Highway 17 corridors, focusing the greatest inland thunderstorm coverage west of these locations during the afternoon and evening hours.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog development is not expected through midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 71 88 69 91 / 20 0 0 20 SSI 74 86 77 87 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 70 88 73 92 / 0 10 10 10 SGJ 74 86 75 88 / 0 20 10 10 GNV 70 90 71 93 / 0 20 0 30 OCF 70 90 73 92 / 0 20 10 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.