textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Cold Weather Outbreak This Weekend & Early Next Week. Extreme Cold Warning Saturday Night & Early Sunday Afternoon. Lows in the Teens Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the Teens & Single Digits

- Winter Weather Advisory Saturday for the Altamaha Area. Probabilities for Minor Transportation Impacts are 10-40% across Southeast GA. Less than 0.5 snow accumulation in advisory area (Jeff Davis, Appling, Wayne, Glynn counties)

- Windy Coastal Conditions Saturday and Saturday Night. Gusts up to 40-50 MPH at for the coast and north central Florida. Gale Warning Across Coastal Waters

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Some isolated light showers will move in from the west this afternoon and evening with cloud cover increasing as well.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing tonight, but lows will dip into the mid 30s for inland southeast Georgia. Winds will begin to pick up overnight, but there may be a window of calm winds coupled with the lower temperatures for patchy frost for inland southeast Georgia.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

A cold front will clear to the south of the area by Saturday morning, with northeasterly flow becoming established behind the front. Much colder air pushes into the area throughout the day, with daytime highs only expected to top out in the 40s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley, with NE FL in the lower to mid 50s. As the Low system deepens, the tightening local pressure gradient will cause for the northwesterly winds to gradually increase during the afternoon hours, with a Wind Advisory in place along coastal locations and north central FL counties as winds are expected in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts upwards to 40 mph, potentially up to 50 mph. By Saturday Night, sub-freezing temperatures will become established area-wide as Lows dip into the teens across SE GA and the lower 20s across NE FL. The Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning as the sub-freezing temperatures and elevated winds will cause for wind chills to drop into the single digits area-wide. In addition to the main hazard of dangerously cold temperatures, there still remains the possibility of some light wintry mix Saturday afternoon/night, particularly along the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Jeff Davis, Appling, Wayne, and Glynn counties, where total snow accumulations less than 1/2 inch will be possible. NE FL coastal locations may also see some light snow flurries during Saturday afternoon/evening.

The cold conditions will persist through the morning hours on Sunday, with temperatures remaining below the 50 degree mark. The Low pressure system will continue to trek away from the area as high pressure begins to build towards the area. Overnight Lows will once again drop to sub-freezing levels area wide by Sunday Night, with another Freeze Warning likely needed in addition to a Cold Weather Advisory as wind chills will dip to the teens and lower 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A quiet period develops during the start of the upcoming week as high pressure will be overhead Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures Will remain on the cold side with Freeze products likely to continue Monday/Tuesday nights. The high pressure weakens and shifts off by midweek, as another cold front pushes towards the local area. Showers are expected along the front as it pushes across the area through Wednesday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Gusty northwesterly winds will develop after sunrise Saturday morning, near 20-25 knots. After 18Z, gusts will increase further.

MARINE

High pressure will diminish and a weak trough will develop over the water through the day. This trough will develop into a low pressure system as it drifts to the northeast tonight. As that system deepens to the northwest winds will strengthen to gale-force Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, with the peak winds expected over night Saturday into Sunday with gusts as high as 45-50 knots. Anticipate seas to rise quickly with waves building up to 15 feet offshore near the Gulf stream. There will be a low and diminishing chance of a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around the low. High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during the early and middle part of next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents today with building risk over the weekend as breakers build to 4-7 feet, especially along the NE FL coast.

FIRE WEATHER

- Widespread High daytime Dispersions Saturday and Sunday - MinRH Near or Below Critical Values Sunday and Monday - Areas of high dispersions Monday

Low pressure will develop northeast of the region later today, then track away to the northeast over the weekend. Strong arctic high pressure will move in behind the front, and maintain cool and dry conditions through at least early next week. Dispersions will be good to borderline high over interior northeast FL today where the best mixing occurs, though more cloud cover further north and west will limit dispersions to the fair range. Northwesterly winds pick up Saturday and will remain breezy through Sunday as well which will result in high dispersions for most of the area Saturday and patchy on Sunday. A wind advisory has also been issued for the coast and parts of inland northeast FL Saturday Night through Sunday Afternoon where gusts of 40-45 mph will be expected. RH values also drop behind the front Saturday Night and through Monday, and will be near critical values Sunday and Monday. Conditions are expected to remain just below any elevated fire danger at this time, though it is possible this headline may be added in upcoming forecasts.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected over the next several days. Light snow is possible Saturday evening over parts of inland southeast GA, with very light accumulations under a half inch possible. Snow flurries will be possible near the coasts as well Saturday Night.

CLIMATE

Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

Saturday, January 31: JAX 40/1909 CRG 43/1977 GNV 47/1909 AMG 44/1948

Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980

Record Low Temperatures:

Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977

Monday, February 2:

JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 35 43 17 40 / 0 20 0 0 SSI 42 50 22 42 / 10 20 30 0 JAX 41 51 20 44 / 10 0 10 0 SGJ 45 54 23 44 / 10 0 10 0 GNV 42 51 20 45 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 43 53 19 45 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. Freeze Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for FLZ031- 038-124-125-132-136>138-140-225-232-233-237-240-325-333- 340-425-433-533-633. GA...Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for GAZ154- 166. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for GAZ133-135-136-153-154. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474.