textproduct: Jacksonville

NEAR TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Low level high pressure ridge will build northward across the region today, which will shift the long standing Southwest steering flow to become more South to Southeast through the day. This will allow for the East Coast sea breeze to push further inland this afternoon to the US 301 corridor, where it will meet the Gulf Coast sea breeze across inland NE FL and expect numerous showers and storms between the US 301 and I-75 corridors this afternoon and evening as the atmosphere remains moist with PWATS of 1.7 to 1.9 inches across the region. Prior to the onset of convection still expect inland areas to reach into the lower to middle 90s, with heat indices of 100-105, while the Atlantic Coastal areas will top out in the upper 80s/near 90F with an earlier start to the East Coast sea breeze. A light SW flow aloft at 500 mb will steer some the deeper convection back towards the I-95 corridor in the evening hours, but likely not all the way to the Atlantic beaches or the Atlantic Coastal waters as in previous days. This flow pattern will still support isolated strong to severe storms as the sea breeze fronts merge over inland areas with gusty downburst winds of 40-60 mph, along with a heavy rainfall threat due to a slower storm motion than in previous days. Convection should fade after sunset over inland areas, and likely end by the midnight time frame with fair skies in convective debris clouds during the overnight hours with lows in the lower to middle 70s inland, and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Thursday, The frontal boundary over central Georgia will push south slightly into the area in the morning hours with surface winds out of the southeast. Expect a 15-30% chance for rain in the morning hours with rain and storm chances increasing to 70-90% over the area as temperatures increase. Southeasterly winds will allow for the highest percentages for rain and storms to occur where sea-breezes converge near I-75. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows cooling into the low to mid 70s, staying slightly warmer at the coast.

Friday, PWAT values of 1.6-2.2" bring chances for scattered showers beginning in the morning. Rain chances will increase in coverage and intensity in the afternoon as temperatures increase. Winds out of the south to southeast will allow sea-breeze convergence to occur further inland (near I-75) and could provide enough instability to produce some stronger storms in the afternoon and evening. High daytime temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The wet weather pattern will continue through the weekend and into next week with a 20-40% chance of rain each morning, increasing to 70-80% chances in the afternoon as temperatures increase and sea-breezes converge. Expect chances for heavier rainfall and stronger storms where sea-breezes converge.

Temperatures will be near to above normal through the period with daytime highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s, staying slightly warmer along the coast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TSRA and IFR CIGS/VSBYS will continue at SSI until 07Z, otherwise VFR conds with convective debris clouds at the other TAF sites. Towards morning expect the usual patchy MVFR fog at VQQ in the 07-11Z time frame. Another active convective day expected on Wednesday, especially at the inland TAF sites, and have continued PROB30 groups in the 20-24Z time frame, which will likely need to be upgraded to TEMPO groups at GNV/VQQ/JAX, with lesser chances at the coastal TAF sites as East Coast sea breeze will push farther inland this afternoon. Convection over inland areas fades in the 01-03Z time frame leaving VFR conds at the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

South winds will prevail this morning with winds gradually shifting to become southeast this afternoon and evening as a high pressure ridge axis lifts northward and lays across the waters through the rest of the week. Offshore flow will return this weekend as a front approaches and stalls to the northwest. Daily thunderstorms are possible through the week but coverage will likely be more limited until offshore flow returns this weekend. Small Craft Advisory headlines are not expected this period.

Rip Currents: As the high pressure ridge lifts northward, the shift in onshore flow from the southeast will keep a Moderate Risk of Rips through the remainder of the week, slowly building the surf/breakers into the 2-3 ft range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 91 71 89 73 / 50 40 80 40 SSI 87 76 87 78 / 50 40 60 40 JAX 93 73 92 74 / 60 40 80 40 SGJ 90 74 89 75 / 40 30 80 30 GNV 94 71 93 73 / 80 60 90 40 OCF 94 71 92 73 / 80 50 90 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.