textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Showers with Isolated to Widely Scattered T'Storms Today with Heavy Rainfall This Morning. Heavy Rainbands ending Late This Morning. Heaviest Localized Rainfall Totals of 1-3 inches This Morning Along the Southeast GA Coast and I-95 corridor north of Jacksonville

- Small Craft Advisories for All Local Waters through Late This Morning

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Wednesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Localized Totals of 1-3" Possible through Late this Morning.

- Small Craft Advisories Through Late this morning for Our Local Atlantic Waters.

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues Today at All Area Beaches.

A broad surface low pressure center is slowly pivoting eastward across the NE Gulf waters to the west coast of the FL peninsula as a mid/upper level shortwave crawls east across southern GA to the GA coast, beginning to be pushed by an amplifying upstream trough centered over northern MI southward across the Midwest states into the OH valley. Very high moisture levels indicated by PWATs around 1.80 (noted from the evening 00Z Upper Air Sounding) and isentropic lift from the the mid/upper trough is producing heavy convergent rain showers with isolated T'storms along the coast just north of Jacksonville to Kingsland, St Marys, Cumberland Island, Jekyll Island to the Brunswick area where pockets of up to 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen overnight into early this morning.

Today, the mid/upper level trough will emerge into the Atlantic coastal waters late this morning and exit to the east by this afternoon. Another surface low will form near the southern NE FL coastal waters and move east northeastward. Flow between the low and weakening high pressure ridging from the Atlantic into the Carolinas will bring breezy northeasterly winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph. Coastal convergent bands will begin to wane late this morning and partial sunshine through lifting low cloud cover will allow for isolated to widely scattered T'storms as the Atlantic seabreeze moves well inland in the onshore flow. The T'storms will be battling dry air above 700mb (10,000 ft) as some drier air wraps around the departing low and will move south to southwest with locally heavy downpours, lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph possible. Heaviest rainfall totals of up to 1-3 inches expected through late morning with only spotty totals of a tenth of an inch to a half inch later today where T'storms develop this afternoon.

Highs today will be largely dictated by cloud cover with upper 70s over a majority of the area along and north of I-10 and the low 80s southward into north central FL.

Tonight, drier air and clearing skies expected as a dry cold front approaches from the northwest. Lows will be in the upper 50s over inland SE GA and the low 60s over inland NE FL with mid 60s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier conditions return on Thursday behind a dry cold front

Dry weather conditions will be in place through Thursday and Friday, following the passage of the dry cold front, with initially clear skies becoming more cloudy on Friday as high pressure moves further off towards the east and prevailing flow over the forecast area gradually shifts about to become more southerly by the end of the period. High temperatures through the end of the week will rise into the mid to upper 80s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s for areas along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the 50s and lower 60s for inland areas on Thursday and will warm into the lower to mid 60s on Friday with min temps dropping to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

A period of dry conditions through the weekend and into next week as high pressure settles over the eastern sea board. A persistent onshore flow could bring a few showers/storms along the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes inland, but not expecting the same coverage as earlier in the week. Warmer temperatures are expect this period with near normal temperatures during the end of the week with temperatures in the 80s, with a few locations in the 90s over north central FL. By the weekend, temperatures will rise to above normal as most locations rise above the 90F mark, with coastal locations in the 80s thanks to the onshore flow.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

A slow moving upper low moving east across Southeast GA will bring MVFR ceilings with tempo restrictions due to heavy rain showers and embedded T'storms will continue through 10-12Z this morning with locally lower LIFR ceilings at SSI.

Breezy east to northeast winds 10-15 knots continue at SSI/SGJ through 10Z before decreasing to around 10 knots from the north northeast with decreased winds away from the coast 5-10 knots from the east northeast. Have PROB30 groups from 10-16Z for IFR level ceilings for continued onshore moving showers as the system moves east into the coastal waters by midday with lighter showers inland at GNV and TEMPO restrictions there for IFR ceilings.

Ceilings will improve this afternoon to MVFR levels away from the coast to scattered 2.5 kft and broken 4.0 kft, but remain overcast at 2.0-3.0 kft at SSI and SGJ where VFR conditions will return by 00- 03Z with the system departing well to the east. Winds increase to around 8-10 knots inland today from the northeast and around 10-12 knots along the coast, decreasing to near calm after 00Z this evening with scattered ceilings 4.0-5.0 kft and scattered to broken mid level clouds.

MARINE

Frontal boundary will be south of the waters today as a wave of low pressure moves into the coastal east central FL waters. High pressure ridge axis extending from the Atlantic into the Carolinas will weaken as the high departs east into the Atlantic. Winds from the east today will decrease into the afternoon and turn more northeasterly as the low moves east northeastward into early this evening. Decreasing winds and seas will end small craft advisory conditions nearshore this afternoon and offshore by this evening. Numerous showers and isolated T'storms over the waters will also diminish steadily through the afternoon hours as the low exits to the east.

A dry cold front will approach the waters late tonight and exit early Thursday morning with high pressure building in from the northwest with breezy northwest winds nearing exercise caution levels. The high will build to the north on Friday and then to the east northeast this weekend with dry conditions and daily seabreeze circulation increasing winds nearshore.

Rip Currents:

A high risk is in effect today for all area beaches for breezy onshore winds and elevated surf heights of 4-6 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 3-5 feet at the southeast GA beaches this morning. Surf heights will diminish on Thursday, with a moderate risk anticipated at the northeast FL beaches and possibly a low risk at the southeast GA beaches as surf falls to around 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Dispersions Area-Wide Thursday

- Near Critical Daytime MinRH Values Thursday and Friday Over Inland Southeast Georgia

Northeast winds will continue into midweek as high pressure begins to shift away from the area ahead of a dry cold front. With the continuing onshore flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will push in towards inland locations by this afternoon, with scattered to numerous showers possible along the boundary. Winds shift to become more northwesterly with the dry cold front tonight. Drier air will limit any chances of showers or storms through the upcoming weekend. Near critical daytime minRH values will develop on Thursday and Friday afternoons for locations across inland SE GA. Elevated mixing heights will also bring high dispersions area-wide on Thursday afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Gusty and erratic winds expected in and near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 78 59 80 54 / 30 10 0 0 SSI 75 64 84 63 / 60 0 0 0 JAX 77 62 86 57 / 60 10 0 0 SGJ 78 66 87 64 / 60 10 0 0 GNV 81 62 86 57 / 40 10 0 0 OCF 82 64 86 61 / 40 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ472- 474.