textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Fog Potential Wednesday Morning. Visibilities down to a quarter mile or less possible, especially inland areas

- Near Record Warmth & Dry Conditions Wednesday. Be very Cautious with Outdoor fires check for local burn bans

- Hazardous Marine Conditions Wed night through the Weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop late Wednesday night

- Potential Light Freeze/Frost Friday & Saturday Morning

UPDATE

Forecast updated to include areas of Dense fog developing/pushing from the Gulf coast north northeastward across I-75 and the FL/GA state line to Waycross and staying mainly west of highway 301. A Dense Fog advisory may be needed late tonight for these locations in the western half of our area. Patchy fog will form over north central FL to the St Johns river basin. Very light winds from the south/southwest will become calm over inland NE FL and north central FL under intermittent high cirrus clouds. Lows will fall to the upper 50s over inland areas between Waycross and the Osceola Natl Forest, with low 60s over far western zones along and west of US441 and along the coast and the St Johns river basin. A few showers will work in ahead of the front north and west of Alma towards sunrise.

Wednesday, the cold front will press into SE GA in the midday to early afternoon hours with a broken band of scattered to numerous showers and isolated T'storms. The timing of the showers early in the day will limit instability over inland SE GA, but allow for a brief window in the midday to early afternoon hours for an isolated stronger T'storm along I-10 in the Suwannee Valley east to about highway 301 corridor as 0-6 km shear 40-45 knots will be present over surface CAPE which could rise to 500-1,000 J/kg in a narrow swath. Main impacts from a stronger T'storm would be wind gusts 40- 50 mph and small hail. West to southwest winds will become breezy 10- 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph ahead of the cold front as pushes through SE GA in the morning and NE FL later in the afternoon hours.

Highs Wednesday will be warmest over NE FL into the low/mid 80s as less clouds interrupt heating compared to SE GA which will top out in the upper 70s. Another daily record high may be tied or broken across NE FL.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

South to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph will continue through the rest of the day as a warm front lifts through the area. Temperatures across the area are already in the lower 80s. Some locations could reach near or above record levels by peak heating as daytime highs will range in the lower to mid 80s over inland locations with lower 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be similar to Monday night, with upper 50s to lower 60s across inland locations and lower 60s along the coast. There will likely be enough low level moisture from the Gulf to bring about fog development over portions of inland SE GA, but predominantly over NE FL during the predawn hours.

Along and ahead of an approaching cold front, showers and isolated storms will look to push into far interior SE GA during the later part of Tonight into Wednesday Morning.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Showers with potential embedded thunderstorms will build into the forecast area from out of the northwest on Wednesday, ahead of an advancing cold front with the highest chances for convection occurring over southeast Georgia and into northeast Florida west of Duval County and extending through the Suwannee Valley region. Rainfall amounts are expected to be upwards of 0.1 inches for affected inland areas. Breezy southwesterly-westerly winds will shift to become more out of the north as the front passes. High temperatures will drop significantly between Wednesday and Thursday with max temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s dipping down into the 60s following the frontal passage. Overnight low temperatures will experience a similar drop with min temps in the 40s and 50s dropping into the lower 30s over southeast Georgia and in the lower 40s for inland northeast Florida. Potential for patchy frost developing overnight Thursday and into early Friday morning over inland southeast Georgia.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Dry weather conditions will be in place for the Friday and Saturday as high pressure and dry air settle over the region. Chances for showers and possible thunderstorms will return on Sunday as high pressure moves off to the northeast and moist southwesterly flow develops over the region ahead of an advancing frontal boundary building in from out of the northwest. Overnight and early morning frost is forecasted for early Friday and again on Saturday night into Sunday morning, primarily affecting southeast Georgia and inland portions of northeast Florida. Temperatures will experience a warming trend through the weekend and into the beginning of next week with max and min temps rising to be above the seasonal average by Monday.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will change to MVFR fog and IFR ceilings at CRG/SSI late tonight after 09/10Z with MVFR fog lowering to IFR fog and ceilings at VQQ and GNV by 08Z with tempo restrictions for VLIFR fog 08/09Z through 13Z. A cold front west of the area will bring light southerly winds less than 5 knots over the area veering to southwesterly into morning with low ceilings and fog developing eastward from the Gulf coast into GNV and towards VQQ terminals, but extent to the coast less likely as winds increase more at the coast. Fog and ceilings lift to VFR levels by 13/14Z.

The cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning with a broken band of showers and an isolated T'storm or two as it moves towards the terminals, but will begin to dissipate with coverage of showers becoming more isolated, so only have VCSH for Wednesday after 18Z with winds bumping up to around 10 knots from the west southwest and the west during the afternoon. Ceilings should remain VFR as what is left of the rain shifts through the TAF sites, but drying up before arriving at SGJ after 21Z, so no VCSH needed there at this time. Chances for T'storms too low to include in the TAF forecast, but may need to be included with later forecasts.

SYNOPSIS

Departing high pressure along the eastern seaboard will bring breezy southerly winds across the local waters through the rest of Today. Winds shift to become southwesterly by Wednesday as an approaching cold front begins to press across the waters. By late Wednesday into Thursday, winds shift to become northwesterly to northerly behind the front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by Thursday. Conditions may persist on Friday and possibly into Saturday as winds shift to the northeast and east.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Wednesday NE FL Low Wednesday

DISCUSSION

AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.. CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

High pressure will continue to move off to the northeast of the region today as a warm front lifts north across the area and winds shift to become southerly. A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday morning with increasing breezy southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. Scattered showers will spread into the Suwannee Valley and inland Southeast GA with afternoon isolated thunderstorms, but less chances eastward towards the coast as showers dissipate late in the day along the front, limiting total rainfall amounts. Increasing southwesterly surface and transport winds will produce areas of high daytime dispersions on Wednesday.

Much drier air mass arrives Thursday and persists through Friday as strong high pressure builds from the northwest. Very low dew points into the upper teens/low 20s over inland Southeast GA and into the Suwannee Valley of Northeast FL will create critically low Min RH values 20-25 percent Thursday and Friday afternoons. While winds appear marginal 10-15 mph, gusts may exceed 25 mph at times and support Elevated fire danger conditions Thursday. Southeast Georgia 10 hour fuels appear to not reach thresholds as well, staying well above 6 percent.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS..Areas of fog, locally dense, will develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across the I-75 corridor to near highway 301 over Northeast FL.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

TUE 11/25 WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 85/1992 84/1946 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 83/1992 83/2020 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 85/1955 84/1973 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 83/1986 84/1973

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 60 77 39 60 / 10 50 0 0 SSI 63 79 46 63 / 0 20 0 0 JAX 60 84 46 66 / 0 30 0 0 SGJ 63 83 53 67 / 10 10 10 0 GNV 60 84 50 68 / 0 20 0 0 OCF 60 82 53 68 / 10 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.