textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Risk for Rip Currents & Rough Surf through Friday

- Scattered Afternoon Showers and Thunderstorms Saturday. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Dangerous surf conditions and a high rip current risk

Weak surface ridging will be over the area through Tonight, with a few isolated coastal showers possible overnight.Lows Tonight will range from the middle 60s inland, to the middle 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate to High rip current risk likely to continue over the area beaches Friday and Saturday

- Isolated to scattered showers expected Friday for northeast FL, increasing to scattered to possibly numerous Saturday

A mid/upper level Low pushes across the FL peninsula into the eastern Gulf during the period. The overall onshore flow will persist into the weekend, but will not be as elevated as the past few days, with occasional gusts in the mid 20 mph range along the coast and towards the St. Johns River. With a pocket of drier air over SE GA, any chances of precipitation will be focused mainly over NE FL where isolated chances remain for coastal locations and scattered chances over the NE FL waters. There could be a few light showers over SE GA during the overnight hours, but chances remain low at the moment so left any mention out of forecast for now. Temperatures on Friday will be in the lower 90s across inland locations of NE FL and SE GA, with upper 80s along the coasts and near the St Johns River basin. Overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s with mid to upper 70s along the coast.

Chances of precipitation begin to increase on Saturday as the Low pressure aloft shifts towards the Gulf. With moisture being brought in from the Atlantic, scattered showers and isolated storms will likely develop during the afternoon hours over NE FL, and possibly over portions of inland SE GA. Easterly onshore winds will continue the same spread of daytime temperatures with relatively cooler highs along the coasts and inland NE FL in the mid to upper 80s, with lower 90s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region of NE FL. Overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s with mid to upper 70s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible

- Elevated rip current risk and rough surf for area beaches for Sunday

The closed Low will push further into the Gulf. Coastal locations will likely see elevated risk of rip currents due to the persistent onshore flow through the weekend. Coverage of scattered to numerous chances of precipitation spread across much of the area as diurnally driven showers and storms over the period, with moist air continuing to filter into the area from the Atlantic, with PWATs reaching near 2". By next week the overall flow will become more southeasterly, with higher chances of precipitation remaining into midweek as moisture remains elevated aloft. Mean flow may begin to transition to east and then northeast late Tuesday into Wednesday as a backdoor frontal boundary starts pushing into the southeast states.

Daytime high temperatures will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Onshore flow weakens over the next few hours with VFR conditions expected to prevail. Kept VCSH at SGJ only, though certainly possible a few showers briefly affect other terminals overnight with very little operational impacts. Onshore flow will be a bit weaker on Friday, with best chances for SHRA being at SGJ and GNV. Winds will still strengthen to around 10 knots closer to the coast once again Thursday late morning and afternoon, with this being the primary operational impact during the forecast period.

MARINE

Isolated showers and onshore flow persists through tonight as high pressure ridging weakens. Another area of high pressure builds across the eastern seaboard this weekend, continuing onshore flow into early next week. An upper disturbance moving over Florida and into the Gulf will bring scattered to numerous showers and storms over the waters Friday into the weekend.

Rip Currents: Continued breezy northeast winds and elevated surf combine to lead to dangerous surf and a high rip current risk for area beaches Today. Onshore winds and seas subside leading to moderate risk for SE GA beaches on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy To Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Friday

Northeast to east winds will continue overnight and on Friday as the elevated wind speeds from the past few days begin to lessen. Some locations will have higher dispersions across portions of the Suwannee Valley Region and northward into SE GA. Drier air over the region will keep rain chances low through the end of the work week, with only scattered showers along the coast due to the onshore flow. Even with the drier air filtering in, min RH values are expected to remain near or the 40% mark, but locations in far interior SE GA hover in the near mid to upper 30 percent range Friday. Shower and storm chances begin to return increase on Saturday for northeast Florida, with coverage of activity expanding across NE FL and most of SE GA on Sunday.

Fog Potential...No significant fog expected. However, patchy fog is possible for inland areas early in the morning hours on Friday and Saturday as winds are near calm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 67 93 70 92 / 0 0 0 20 SSI 76 86 76 87 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 73 87 72 87 / 10 0 10 10 SGJ 76 86 75 86 / 20 20 20 20 GNV 71 89 70 88 / 0 10 0 40 OCF 71 89 71 89 / 0 10 0 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.