textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Low Wind Chills Sunday Night & Monday Morning. Cold Weather Advisory Conditions [Wind Chills: 15-25F]: Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL

- Hard Freeze Potential for Inland Southeast GA Early Next Week. Hard Freeze Potential Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings. Light Freezes for the Suwannee Valley & Portions of Inland Northeast FL

- Gale Warnings Possible on Sunday Night & Monday Morning

UPDATE /THROUGH TONIGHT/

No significant changes to the forecast this evening. Mostly clear skies tonight with lows mostly in the 40s under good radiational cooling conditions. Some patchy shallow fog will be possible early Saturday Morning mainly towards the Upper Suwannee Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Chances for showers will increase overnight Saturday and into Sunday, with a slight chance for rainfall over inland southeast Georgia, ahead of the cold front pressing in from out of the northwest. Breezy northwesterly winds will build in Sunday afternoon with the fropa and shifting to become more out of the northeast during the overnight hours. High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s over southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 70s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop sharply following the frontal passage with min temps falling into the 20s and lower 30s for southeast Georgia and for areas of northeast Florida west of the St Johns and through into Alachua County. Patchy to dense early morning fog developments are anticipated through the weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Dry weather conditions will continue through midweek with initially gusty onshore winds on Monday becoming more mild as the week progresses as the center of high pressure rotation extends over the forecast area. Temperatures will experience a warming trend through the week with temps reaching to be above average levels before the end of the week. Overnight and early morning frost developments are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, with frost being more widespread Tuesday morning and being more restricted to inland southeast Georgia on Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Main operational concern through the next 12 hours or so will be shallow fog potential, mainly over inland airfields - though JAX and CRG may briefly see these conditions towards sunrise Saturday. Overall have backed off slightly compared to the previous forecast based on the latest model guidance. Otherwise, VFR and light winds will prevail for the majority of the forecast period.

MARINE

High pressure centered over our local waters will shift offshore tonight. Arctic cold front will enter the southeastern states on Saturday night, with this boundary pushing across our local waters on Sunday. Northwesterly winds will quickly strengthen in the wake of this frontal passage on Sunday afternoon, with Small Craft Advisories likely, followed by possible Gale Warnings on Sunday night as winds shift to northerly and then northeasterly due to strong high pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard, resulting in quickly building seas. High pressure will then gradually weaken over the southeastern states early next week as coastal troughing develops over our local waters. Gale Warnings will likely continue through Monday morning, with onshore winds and seas then gradually subsiding from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Coastal troughing may generate a few showers early next week, mainly for the offshore waters. High pressure will then shift eastward and off the southeastern seaboard by midweek.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Saturday NE FL Low Saturday

FIRE WEATHER

LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST FL... ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AT COASTAL LOCATIONS...

A dry air mass will prevail at inland locations today, dropping minimum relative humidity values to the upper 20s and lower 30s, with values closer to 40 percent at coastal locations. Southwesterly transport winds will become breezy during the mid to late afternoon hours across inland portions of southeast Georgia, where fair daytime dispersion values are forecast. Lighter speeds across northeast Florida will yield poor daytime dispersion values today, except low values for coastal locations and also across north central Florida. Southwesterly transport winds will continue across southeast Georgia on Saturday, with elevated mixing heights countering lower speeds, keeping fair daytime dispersion values in the forecast. Poor values will prevail elsewhere, with marginally low values again possible at coastal locations in northeast Florida. Westerly surface and transport winds on Sunday morning will shift to northwesterly late in the morning and early in the afternoon. A few showers will be possible across inland southeast Georgia during the morning hours, with dry weather continuing elsewhere. Surface and transport winds will strengthen during the afternoon hours on Sunday area-wide, creating good daytime dispersion values at most locations. A much colder and drier air mass will then plunge into our region on Sunday night, with breezy northeasterly surface and transport winds yielding elevated nighttime dispersion values at coastal locations.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog formation are possible for inland areas during the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 41 71 49 64 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 47 68 52 68 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 41 73 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 47 72 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 41 76 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 41 76 51 75 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.