textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Expected Saturday due to moderately unstable airmass, breezy southwesterly winds and low humidity

- Dense Smoke will restrict visibility at times in areas in the vicinity and downwind of large actively burning wildfires in SE GA

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening T'storms Possible Saturday & Sunday and again Wednesday through Next Friday.

UPDATE

A few tweaks to fit current radar echoes and expected smoke trends through tonight. Due to the dry air in place, it's unlikely that significant fog will develop. However, patchy fog across interior portions of Suwannee Valley may interact with smoke from the Pineland Road fire to enhance the risk of localized "super fog", especially near the fire itself. Otherwise, expect temperatures to cool down to the upper 50s and the low 60s by daybreak Saturday under mostly clear skies.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

Afternoon surface analysis depicts weakening Atlantic high pressure (1017 millibars) pushing eastward and away from the Bahamas. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from the Great Lakes region southwestward through the southern Plains states. Aloft...a shortwave trough exiting the northwestern Bahamas was leaving northwesterly flow across our area in its wake, with another shortwave trough upstream of our region that was currently traversing the Arklatex region that was embedded in the prevailing zonal flow pattern that encompasses the lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Desert Southwest. The northwesterly flow pattern has driven a smoke plume emanating from the 7,500+ acre Highway 82 Wildfire in Brantley County in southeast GA eastward towards the I-95 corridor in coastal southeast GA, prompting an extension of the ongoing Dense Smoke Advisory into inland portions of Glynn County. Meanwhile, another smoke plume emanating from the 32,000+ acre Pineland Road Wildfire in Echols and Clinch Counties in southeast GA was emanating eastward across portions of the Okefenokee Swamp.

Otherwise, latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that moisture levels have risen to around or just above 1 inch, which has helped to create a healthy cumulus field throughout our region. The developing Gulf coast sea breeze has sparked isolated convection thus far for portions of the FL Big Bend and Nature Coast, with shower activity impacting portions of Gilchrist County. The inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary has also developed a few brief showers over coastal southeast GA as well. Temperatures at 19Z were generally in the lower to mid 80s at most inland locations, with upper 70s noted at coastal locations in the wake of the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze. Dewpoints ranged from the upper 40s and lower 50s across inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley to the low and mid 60s at coastal locations.

The inland moving Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes will likely collide before sunset this evening along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor. Just enough moisture and instability will be present for isolated showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm to develop, mainly across inland portions of northeast and north central FL. Smoke plumes may move overhead of the Golden Isles later this afternoon and early this evening before smoke and potentially fog / superfog settles closer to the ongoing wildfire sites in Brantley, Echols and Clinch Counties. The Dense Smoke Advisory is set to expire at 10 PM this evening, but may need to be extended overnight near the ongoing larger wildfires. Otherwise, any showers that develop near colliding mesoscale boundaries early this evening should dissipate before midnight. Dense fog formation may be possible across the FL Big Bend overnight, potentially impacting western portions of the Suwannee Valley towards sunrise on Saturday. Clearing skies and diminishing winds overnight will allow lows to the upper 50s inland, ranging to the low and mid 60s at coastal locations.

SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm chances over the weekend

A cold front will move into SE GA and stall Saturday afternoon. Upper troughing will accompany this front, helping to increase instability. Scattered showers with thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon, with the greatest chances over SE GA.

The boundary will then linger near the FL/GA line through Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Saturday night through Sunday.

High pressure will build to the north northeast Sunday night, helping to push the boundary to the south of the area, and bring an end to the showers and storms.

While there is not a significant chance for strong to severe storms this weekend, a few strong storms can not be ruled out.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure ridging will prevail across the area Monday and Monday night, with mainly dry weather. A cold front will move southeast into the area Tuesday afternoon, and stall over forecast area through Thursday night. High pressure is currently forecast to push the boundary to the south on Friday.

Due to the position of the front, the greatest chance for any showers and thunderstorms from Monday through Thursday will be over SE GA, with these chances expanding across the area Friday.

Temperatures will trend near to a little below normal on Monday, then above normal for the rest of the week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Residual sea breeze winds will fade through the evening and trend toward calm after 04z. There's not much confidence in impactful fog development at any terminals through the predawn hours. However, potential visibility restrictions due to smoke are possible at KSSI as smoke from the nearby large wildfire settles toward the surface. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will prevail through the morning hours prior to the Atlantic sea breeze push during the afternoon. Modest amounts of instability may support isolated to widely scattered showers along the sea breeze, especially after 20z as it interacts with the river breeze and the gulf breeze.

MARINE

High pressure situated offshore of the southeastern states will continue to gradually weaken as it shifts eastward. Onshore winds will become breezy this afternoon across the near shore waters as the Atlantic sea breeze boundary shifts inland, followed by winds shifting to southerly towards sunset this evening and then southwesterly with gradually decreasing speeds after midnight tonight. A frontal boundary will then enter the southeastern states on Saturday, possibly developing widely scattered late afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms across our local waters through the weekend. This front will cross our local waters on Sunday evening, with low pressure along this front strengthening somewhat off the Carolina coast by Monday. Winds will shift to northerly on Sunday night and then northeasterly by Monday morning, with Caution conditions likely due to breezy speeds and building seas through Monday evening. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local waters on Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing winds and seas to subside. A cold front will then approach our area from the northwest late next week.

Rip Currents:

A lower-end moderate risk of rip currents will persist through Saturday, mainly due to breezy onshore winds during the afternoon hours following the passage of the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze. A low risk is expected through the weekend at the southeast GA beaches, and a low risk is likely on Sunday at the northeast FL beaches due to the anticipated delayed development of the Atlantic sea breeze. Strengthening northeasterly winds and building surf heights will likely bring a moderate to possibly high rip current risk for our local beaches on Monday, with this elevated risk possibly lingering into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Over The Weekend - Patchy High Dispersions Monday, Wednesday, Thursday And Friday

High pressure ridging will move off to the southeast through Tonight. A cold front will move into SE GA Saturday, and stall near the FL/GA line over the weekend. This boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. This boundary will push to the south Monday into Monday night, as high pressure builds to the north northeast. Another frontal boundary will affect the region Tuesday afternoon through Friday, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog along and near the I75 corridor Tonight and Saturday night. Smoke from area fires will result in reduced visibilities especially at night.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958

April 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 59 89 63 88 / 0 20 50 30 SSI 64 83 66 83 / 0 10 30 40 JAX 59 89 63 88 / 0 20 20 40 SGJ 62 86 64 85 / 10 10 10 40 GNV 58 90 62 88 / 10 10 10 40 OCF 59 89 62 87 / 0 10 10 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ152- 153-162-163. MARINE...None.