textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy Fog over Inland Northeast & North Central FL This Morning

- Elevated Wildfire Danger Potential this Afternoon

- Thunderstorms & Beneficial Rainfall Late Tonight and by the weekend. Highest chances of rain will be on Saturday.

- Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Late Tonight for inland SE GA and Saturday/Saturday night.

- Potential widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches, locally 3 inches from today through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Chance of showers and storms late tonight from I-10 corridor northward. An isolated severe storm is possible. - Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Today. - Elevated fire weather conditions today.

A well-defined shortwave disturbance is passing west-east through portions of the forecast area early this morning with the stronger portion of the trough over southeast GA. This will be accompanied by mostly isolated to scattered light showers over southeast GA and will be exiting the area by about noon-2 pm. A frontal boundary will also sag southeastward into the southeast states today and tonight, while sfc ridge remains across the central Gulf and central FL. This setup results in prevailing southwest flow of up to 10-15G20-25mph. Lessening cloud cover this afternoon will help boost temps up further than Tuesday. In fact, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast, which are near records. Climate site that has best chance of setting a record is Craig Airport. MinRH values down to mid 30s are certainly possible which will elevate fire weather concerns.

For tonight, the next disturbance will move into AL and GA by the evening hours, spreading clouds downstream into our area again. A few showers may be developing already by mid evening over southeast GA. In any event, associated convection with the shortwave will move into our zones by around midnight, and spread eastward overnight well ahead of the approaching cold front. There is a risk of locally strong or even a severe storm with this activity though instability will not be great, but a corridor of MLCAPE of about 800-1200 J/kg is possible. Bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support this activity as well. POPs of 40-60 percent is painted across southeast GA, and about 20-30 percent for the I-10 corridor in northeast FL. Lows tonight will be mild in the 60s given added cloud cover and southwesterly winds of about 10 mph.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Showers and Storms Thursday and Friday

A cold front entering SE GA on Thursday gradually shifts south and stalls around north-central FL on Friday before lifting back northward as a warm front. Meanwhile, the persistent upper ridging breaks down as a parade of shortwaves move through the SE US. A few showers and storms linger along the boundary in SE GA Thursday morning. Convective coverage increases Thursday afternoon as the front interacts with elevated moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7 in), diurnal heating and the inland moving sea breezes. Best chances for storms will be along the FL/GA state border. Showers gradually wane Thursday night. Scattered showers and isolated storms develop along and near the front again Friday afternoon. As the front begins to lift northward as a warm front into Friday evening, rain chances decrease from south to north through daybreak Saturday morning. Due to the front, there will be a north-south temperature gradient with highs ranging from around 80 to around 90 and lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Unsettled weekend weather brings beneficial rain - Isolated strong/severe storms possible Saturday

A stronger cold front moves through the area on Saturday bringing numerous showers, embedded thunderstorms and beneficial rainfall area-wide. Probabilities remain favorable for SE GA and NE FL to receive around an inch of rain with this weekend's system. Sufficient shear and instability ahead of the front could bring a few strong to severe storms, with the general timing of stronger storms north of I- 10 Saturday morning, shifting near and south of I-10 into Saturday afternoon and evening. The main convective hazards on Saturday would be strong wind gusts of 40-60 mph and possibly a few rotating cells depending on the track of surface low moving along the front. Convection wanes from north to south Saturday night as the front shifts into north-central FL. A reinforcing short wave trough slides across the region into Sunday with stratiform rainfall developing across NE FL and few storms possible across north-central FL Sunday near the lingering frontal zone. Drier conditions filter in from north to south across the area Sunday into early next week as surface high pressure builds eastward across the deep south.

Due to the front, highs on Saturday will range from upper 60s north to around 90 south. Temperatures then cool to near to just below seasonable in the wake of the front Sunday into Monday. Temperatures moderate back to near to above average Tuesday as a more typical diurnal sea breeze regime develops.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

VFR prevail during the period. Some MVFR vsby will be possible around GNV and VQQ through about 12z. A batch of clouds will be passing through near JAX and northward around 10z-15 associated with a disturbance that will bring some mid clouds to the area and some sprinkles will be possible around SSI and near JAX. This system will move offshore to the northeast during the afternoon, with improving sky cover afterward. There may a stray shower this afternoon but confidence and probs too low to include anything at this time. Toward the end of the TAF period, increasing clouds again and expect that some showers or a thunderstorm will be possible from about JAX northward after 06z. Sfc winds light and variable through 12z, then become southwesterly with speeds up to 10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots as a front slowly approaches the region from the northwest.

MARINE

A cold front will enter the southeastern states today and tonight, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly to northern portions of the waters late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This front will then stall across the northeast Florida waters on Thursday night and Friday. A wave of low pressure will develop over the Gulf by late Friday night or Saturday, with widespread showers and possibly a few strong thunderstorms overspreading our local waters by Saturday, with activity expected to continue into Sunday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop on Saturday as southwesterly winds increase ahead of this approaching wave of low pressure. The front will shift south of the northeast Florida waters on Sunday.

Rip Currents:

Based on latest data and guidance have hoisted another high risk for the northeast FL beaches today with surf up to 2-4 ft. While the risk has lowered since yesterday, it still looks close to high risk. Should also be a moderate longshore current at times. For southeast GA beaches, have a moderate risk today. A bit lower surf will decrease the risk on Thursday, while Friday may be more complex as a front makes it's way down the coast but outlook looks like moderate risk for now.

FIRE WEATHER

-HIGH INLAND DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL TODAY

A few light showers may move across the Altamaha river basin this morning. Otherwise, the area will remain dry today. Elevated Fire Danger conditions possible today with near record high temperatures, inland humidity in the 30s and breezy southwest winds. Gusts will near 20 to 25 mph by the afternoon. The east coast sea breeze will develop and press inland to about the Interstate 95 corridor, trailed by SSE winds near the coast. The combination of increasing southwest transport winds, elevated mixing heights and hot temperatures will also create high daytime dispersions this afternoon, especially along and north of the I-10 corridor. Rain chances increase across southeast Georgia tonight into Thursday as a frontal zone settles southward across the area with isolated thunderstorm potential. A strong storm may develop across southeast Georgia early Thursday morning. The front stalls and lingers over the local area into Thursday afternoon with a chance of showers and isolated storms as the front interacts with diurnal instability and the sea breezes.

Extended outlook: Unsettled weather with high confidence of area- wide wetting rainfall this weekend. A chance of strong to isolated severe storms Saturday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog is possible this morning mainly across inland northeast Florida. Smoke from nearby fires may result in localized visibility reductions, especially during the overnight and early morning hours.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for today:

Wed, April 29: KJAX: 93/1991 KGNV: 95/2017 KAMG: 93/2012 KCRG: 91/2021

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 90 66 81 60 / 20 60 60 20 SSI 86 68 80 66 / 20 50 60 30 JAX 92 67 85 65 / 10 30 60 30 SGJ 89 67 84 65 / 10 20 50 30 GNV 91 65 89 65 / 10 10 40 20 OCF 90 66 89 65 / 10 0 20 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.