textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents this Afternoon at All Area Beaches.

- Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Across North Central FL and Portions of the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon through Early this Evening.

- Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Wednesday Morning for Inland Southeast GA.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations from Wednesday through Friday.

- Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area-Wide from Saturday through Memorial Day.

- Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk Of Rip Currents this Afternoon at All Area Beaches.

- Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Across North Central FL and Portions of the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon through Early this Evening.

- Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Wednesday Morning for Inland Southeast GA.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1027 millibars) centered near Bermuda, with this feature extending its axis westward across the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a wavy frontal boundary extends from northern New England and across southern Canada, through the western Great Lakes, and southwestward across the Ozarks and Southern Plains. Aloft...ridging prevails over the Gulf, with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) located north of the Bahamas that is now moving northward, with this feature being steered by the deep-layered ridge near Bermuda. Latest GOES- East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deeper moisture has advected across north central FL and the Suwannee Valley in the easterly flow pattern, where PWATs were near or just above 1.5 inches. PWATS elsewhere across northeast FL and southeast GA have generally risen to around 1.25 inches, which is just slightly below late May climatology. Low level convergence in the deep onshore flow pattern and the presence of increased moisture levels have developed widely scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across north central FL this afternoon, with activity mostly located south of Gainesville as of 18Z. Temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 80s inland, with breezy onshore winds keeping coastal temperatures in the lower 80s. Dewpoints at 18Z ranged from the mid 60s across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley to the lower 70s across north central and coastal northeast FL.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will generally shift west- northwestward from north central FL towards the Interstate 75 corridor in the Suwannee Valley as the afternoon progresses. Locally heavy downpours and cloud to ground lightning strikes will be the main hazards with this activity, mostly across central and western portions of Marion County. Otherwise, a drier air mass will advect across our area tonight from east to west, as our region becomes influenced a little more by the aforementioned TUTT circulation that is positioned off the southeastern seaboard. PWATs overnight should fall below 1.25 inches, and a more subsident air mass and clear skies should allow for a greater coverage of fog formation for inland locations north of Interstate 10 towards sunrise on Wednesday. The drier air mass advecting over our area, clear skies, and decoupling winds overnight should allow lows to fall to the low and mid 60s at most inland locations, except upper 60s for north central FL. A light onshore breeze will keep coastal lows closer to 70 degrees.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily isolated thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor.

Drier air in place will limit showers and storms over much of the area Wednesday and Thursday, however isolated storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon over north central Florida, and again on Thursday afternoon over north central FL and near I-75. The persistent east-southeast flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up range from 15 mph to 20 mph each afternoon. Inland high temperatures will soar into the lower to mid 90s, whereas coastal highs will stay a little cooler with the sea breeze, in the mid to upper 80s I-95 eastward. Mild low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s both nights, with chances for patchy inland fog both Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

- Hot temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week.

Rain and storm chances increase Friday through Monday areawide as southerly flow allows both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes to develop and meet in a more central location. Storms will primarily develop in the afternoons, beginning to dissipate around sunset. PWATs will trend towards the 1.5" to 1.75" range, possibly as high as 2" for some locations over SE GA by Sunday, which could lead to locally heavy downpours for any storms that develop. The hot temperatures will continue through the weekend as highs will rise to lower to mid 90s across inland locations outside of convective activity, while the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the upper 60s to 70s area- wide.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Showers and a few thunderstorms developing across north central FL this afternoon should remain south of the GNV terminal, and we have maintained vicinity shower coverage at this time. Please check for amendments for GNV until this activity shifts west of the terminal after 22Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z at the regional terminals. Periods of IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to develop after 05Z at VQQ. Easterly surface winds sustained at 10-15 knots through around 01Z. Surface winds will then shift to southeasterly after 02Z, with speeds gradually diminishing overnight. Speeds will increase to 5-10 knots by 15Z Wednesday, followed by winds shifting to east-southeast and increasing to around 10 knots before 18Z.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis westward across the southeastern states through the end of the week. This feature will maintain a prevailing east to southeasterly wind flow across our local waters during the next several days. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week. Caution level wind speeds will be possible for the near shore waters during the late afternoon and evening hours from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda. Only isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected through Saturday, with a slight increase in coverage possible towards Memorial Day.

Rip Currents:

Persistent easterly winds and surf of 2-4 ft will keep a high risk of rip currents in place today at all area beaches, with at least a moderate risk on Wednesday and Thursday. High risks are expected again from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening east to southeasterly wind surges return.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions This Week.

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon this week. With the persistent onshore flow, moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. Patchy to areas of locally dense fog possible on Wednesday morning for inland southeast GA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 64 90 65 91 / 10 10 0 10 SSI 70 84 73 86 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 65 89 69 92 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 71 87 72 89 / 10 10 0 10 GNV 66 93 69 94 / 10 20 0 10 OCF 68 92 70 93 / 10 20 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.