textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Today Inland Northeast FL. Low Humidity, Extreme Drought & Critically Dry Fuels

- Small Craft Advisory Today. Gale Warning Outer Waters Early this Morning

- Light Freeze & Frost Tonight & Early Sunday Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

After an early morning 'dry' cold front passage, sunny skies prevail today as surface high pressure builds northwest then north of the region into tonight. Breezy WNW winds this morning will gust near 20-25 kts at times, then winds subside into the afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient relaxes. High temperatures will trend from the upper 50s to near 60 across southeast GA to the low/mid 60s across NE FL.

Tonight, the surface ridge centered well northeast of the region extends an axis southward across GA where winds will be near calm, while light onshore flow develops along the coast. Dry low level air, clear skies and calm winds will bring an inland freeze and widespread frost to southeast GA and to locations near and north of the Interstate 10 corridor in northeast FL. We upgraded to a Freeze Warning for these locations.

Maintained a freeze watch for portions of northeast FL south of the I-10 corridor for the day shift to evaluate for a marginal freeze event in which case an upgrade to the Freeze Watch would occur with lows right around freezing or for a possible Frost Advisory in lieu of the Freeze Warning. Given the drier air in place and a near calm but northerly drainage flows inland, incorporated some of the NBM 25th and 50th percentile values for lows tonight, which still kept locations including Gainesville and Ocala above freezing with lows in the 33-35 deg range. Regardless of reaching freezing, widespread inland freeze is expected in these areas, and protective actions to crops, plants, pets and livestock are advised.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Weak high pressure ridging will remain the dominant feature throughout the short term period, as high pressure slowly shifts from north of the region on Sunday to east/southeast of the area by Monday and Monday Night. Sunday will be mostly sunny but still a bit cooler than normal with a weak and almost variable wind inland, and more onshore towards the coast with a weak sea breeze developing: highs will be mostly in the 60s, except for some upper 50s at the immediate coast. Some higher clouds will build into the area for Sunday Night, which will help keep lows slightly milder Sunday Night, mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s. Some patchy frost will be likely over inland areas by Monday Morning.

Some of those higher clouds are expected to stick around Monday and Monday Night thanks to an upper shortwave progressing southeastward across the area. This shortwave will help to kick low level high pressure more south and east of the region, inducing a light southwest flow and therefore milder highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for most (except for some low to mid 60s near the immediate coast with a weak sea breeze influence). Min temps Monday Night and into Tuesday will moderate a bit accordingly, with widespread 40s forecast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Dry and generally warmer than normal conditions will be likely for Tuesday as surface high pressure slowly drifts further east of the area and ridging builds a bit further aloft. For Wednesday and onward, confidence is overall lower than normal as guidance varies on how the upper pattern and series of frontal boundaries impact the region. As of now, looking like the first and most likely weaker frontal boundary will drop southward towards the area around Wednesday/Wednesday Night, bringing a chance for rain around this time frame before a stronger cold front approaches by late week. Though still uncertain, appears as though there will be several chances for rain during the long term period, especially towards late next week. Temperatures trend mostly above climo.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Gusty WSW to WNW this morning ahead of and trailing cold front passage with gusts 15- 25 kts at times through midday. Winds subside into the afternoon inland to 5-10 kt range with coastal winds becoming NE 8-12 kts through 00z as high pressure builds north of the region. After 00z, light northerly winds < 3 kts inland through 12z with ENE to NNE at the coast < 7 kts. Note that NBH guidance has 10-15% probabilities of MVFR shallow ground fog restrictions after 08z tonight for FL terminals.

MARINE

A dry cold front will move south of the local waters early this morning with small craft advisory conditions over the local waters through this afternoon. Gusts to gale force will continue to impact the outer waters through early Saturday morning. High pressure builds north of the local waters tonight, then northeast of the region into Monday as winds and seas subside. The high builds across south Florida through mid-week.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk today and Sunday under northerly winds today then northeast Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER INLAND NORTHEAST FL TODAY - AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS OVER NORTHEAST FL SUNDAY - LOW MIN RH VALUES INLAND THIS WEEKEND

A dry cold front will move across the area this morning with breezy west to northwest winds through late morning with gusts near 20 mph at times. Northerly winds weaken into the afternoon as humidity falls to near 25% inland to 35-40% along the coast where north to northeast winds develop this afternoon. Much weaker easterly winds Sunday will bring low daytime dispersion with critically low humidity inland, generally near an west of Highway 301.

Outlook: Prevailing dry weather continues through Friday. Minimum humidity begins to recover above critical values Tuesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Inland frost and freeze expected tonight into Sunday Morning. Significant fog development is not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 59 30 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 58 37 55 43 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 63 33 64 38 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 60 39 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 66 32 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 67 33 68 37 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for FLZ021-030-031-035-136-232-236-422-522. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for FLZ023-024-120- 220-322-425. GA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Sunday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450- 452-454. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ470-472-474. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ470- 472-474.