textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated/Scattered Thunderstorms Today, and again from Wednesday through next weekend

- Small Craft Advisory Portions Waters Late Tonight into Monday

- Nightly restrictions in visibility from smoke near area fires

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances today and tonight - Areas of smoke will continue near ongoing wildfires

Scattered showers with a potential for isolated thunderstorms will to build across the forecast area this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary pressing across the forecast area today, however conditions appear to be drier than forecast models . Westerly-northwesterly winds will shift about to become more out of the northeast in the evening and overnight hours following the frontal passage, with wind speeds becoming breezier overnight and into Monday morning. Plumes from wildfires will follow the wind shift, with smoke spreading more inland with the onshore flow. High temperatures today will rise into the mid to upper 80s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s along the shoreline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 60s over inland areas and in the mid 60s for areas nearer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period (Monday to Tuesday night):

- Breezy along the coast Monday

- Enhanced rip current risk

- Generally dry and not as warm

Monday: High pressure building southward from the Northeast in the wake of the departing frontal boundary will bring a cooler and drier airmass on Monday. Cold air advection will keep temperatures below seasonal normals. Skies will be mostly cloudy in the morning, then become partly sunny during the afternoon. Highs will range from the lower to mid 70s along the coast to the upper 70s and lower 80s inland. Northeast winds will be breezy at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, especially near the coast and in exposed inland areas. Models show rain chances are now nil, as the front continues to push farther down the peninsula than previous trends.

Monday Night: Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected as high pressure settles over the region. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 50s east of highway 301 and lower to mid 60s over north central Florida and along the coast. Patchy fog may develop inland where winds decouple.

Tuesday: The surface ridge shifts eastward, allowing a warming trend to begin under mostly sunny skies. Highs will reach the lower 80s along the coast and the mid to upper 80s inland. East winds around 5 to 10 mph will increase to 10 to 15 mph near the coast during the afternoon. Dry conditions will persist.

Tuesday Night: The ridge will be well east of the Florida Peninsula with a light southerly flow on tap. Partly cloudy skies with lows in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances along two different fronts

Key Message:

Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday as a more active pattern develops. High pressure shifts farther offshore Tuesday night while a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest.

Wednesday: A weakening frontal boundary settling near the Mid South will provide a focus for isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across SE GA. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with lows in the upper 60s. Rain chances in the 20 to 30 percent range north of Waycross.

Thursday: More organized and scattered showers and storms ahead of a cold front Thursday night. Rain chances rise to around 40 percent area wide. Highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

Friday: Weak high pressure briefly builds in behind the front, leading to slightly cooler temperatures and reduced rain chances. Highs in 80s. A few isolated coastal showers or storms remain possible during the afternoon with residual moisture and daytime heating.

Saturday: Another frontal system approaches from the northwest, bringing a renewed increase in shower and thunderstorm chances. Timing of the front still in question Saturday afternoon or evening. Highs will be in the lower 80s with lows in the mid 60s. Overall, guidance remains in good agreement on the general evolution of temperatures and precipitation, with primary uncertainty tied to the timing and placement of frontal boundary.

Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday into Thursday, with a record high or two possible Wednesday. Behind the cold front for rest of the week it will trend near or below normal.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Scattered showers with a potential for isolated thunderstorms will build through the forecast area today, ahead of an advancing frontal boundary. Initially westerly winds will shift about to become more out of the northeast by around 02z-04z with wind speeds building to about 10-15 knots with gusts upwards of 20-25 knots by the end of the forecast period. Obscuration caused by a wildfire to the east can affect visibility levels at SSI this afternoon, becoming less of a concern following the wind shift associated with the fropa.

MARINE

High pressure shifts east of area waters through today. A cold front will then drop south towards the today and will cross our local waters tonight, with low pressure along this front strengthening somewhat off the Carolina coast by Monday. Winds will shift to northerly on Sunday night and then northeasterly by Monday morning, with Caution to marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions likely later today into tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight ahead of the boundary. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local waters on Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front will then approach our area from the northwest late next week.

Rip Currents:

Rip current risk will be low at area beaches today as a weaker onshore flow is expected with surf around 1-2 ft. Rip current risk increases Monday into Tuesday due to increased onshore flow with risk increasing toward high.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions This Afternoon - High Dispersion Possible Wednesday

A pre-frontal trough has pressed into the First Coast this late morning and will push off the coast this afternoon. The cold front itself is currently across SE GA will move through the region this afternoon and early evening, shifting winds to northeasterly tonight. High pressure will dominate Monday with a moderate northeast flow. Breezy conditions are expected, with sustained winds near 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph, strongest near the coast. Minimum relative humidity values may fall to around 30 to 35 percent west of highway 301 across inland southeast Georgia on Monday and Tuesday.

High dispersion values are expected the rest of this afternoon ahead of the front, with elevated dispersion possible again on Wednesday ahead of another cold front passage Wednesday night and early Thursday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across SE GA Wednesday, with better chances on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 60 81 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 64 72 64 78 / 20 0 10 0 JAX 63 77 60 84 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 65 76 65 81 / 10 10 10 0 GNV 63 84 59 89 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 64 85 62 89 / 10 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450- 452-470-472.