textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents Through The Weekend

- Isolated Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High risk of rip currents at area beaches - Dry conditions will elevate fire weather concerns inland areas

Today: Moisture levels increase slightly today in the Southeast boundary layer flow which will allow for widely scattered showers and isolated storms to develop along the East Coast sea breeze as it moves inland and sets up along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL, but severe weather is not expected with any of the isolated storm activity. Max temps will push to above normal levels and into the lower to middle 90s over inland areas, but remain in the upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s along the Atlantic beaches in the breezy onshore SE flow during the afternoon hours with sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at times.

Tonight: High pressure ridge remains just north of the region with a few isolated showers and storms over far inland areas during the evening hours which will fade quickly after sunset. Otherwise mainly fair skies during the overnight hours with min temps continuing at slightly above normal levels with lows only falling into the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. Fog chances remain low with only patchy fog possible around sunrise.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Weather Concerns this Period:

- Isolated strong to marginally severe storms along the I-75 corridor Sunday evening

- High rip current risk at the beaches each day

SUNDAY...

Increasing thunderstorm chances expected Sunday as deeper moisture is introduced across the area by a southeasterly prevailing flow. This will push the Atlantic sea breeze well inland Sunday evening where it will collide with the slower-moving Gulf breeze. The collision should occur somewhere near the I-75 corridor where chances for storms and some beneficial rain will be highest. Considering the influence of a shortwave lifting northward along the sea breezes as they collide, and cooler air aloft it'll bring, cannot rule out the potential for a marginally severe storm or two Sunday evening. The main concerns with convection will be slow storm motions leading to locally heavy rain and possible minor flooding and potential for strong downburst winds of 40-60 mph. Outflow interactions may continue showers and isolated storms into the late evening with activity fading by midnight.

MONDAY...

This'll be a "down" day for thunderstorm activity along the sea breeze owing to a dry air advecting westward off the Atlantic. There still could be sufficient moisture across north-central FL for a few showers to develop but coverage will be extremely isolated. Breezy onshore winds will continue and the most concerning impacts will be focused at the beach where a high rip current risk is likely.

TEMPERATURES...

Due to the onshore flow, cooler high temperature readings are expected at the coast each day in the mid 80s, whereas inland counties are likely reach the low 90s. Overnight the opposite will be true, more mild temps will be favored at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Weather Concerns this Period:

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms expected along the sea breeze merger

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely through the first half of the upcoming week.

The upcoming week will set up into a "standard" sea breeze setup as the Bermuda ridge becomes established. The western extension of the ridge axis is progged to lay to the north, allowing a feed of moisture off the Atlantic on southeasterly flow through at least Thursday. Over those few days, total precipitable water will rise gradually from around 1.2" to 1.5". The inland-directed flow will continue an Atlantic (easterly) dominant sea breeze, keeping the best chances for diurnal convection focused inland toward the I-75 corridor where sea breeze mergers are more likely to occur.

By Thursday the upper ridge will begin to flatten and send the low level ridge axis southward, resulting in a more central sea breeze merger between the US 301 and I-75 corridors. Another shift in the sea breeze merger is expected Friday as steering flow becomes southwesterly ahead of slowing front. This'll place the best chances for robust convection toward the I-95 corridor. Given the pattern and trend in guidance, it's unlikely the cool front will make it into the forecast area next weekend.

Otherwise, beneath an amplified upper ridge temperatures will be slightly above normal through next week, except at the beaches where the onshore flow will likely keep afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through the current TAF period except for the usual patchy MVFR fog at VQQ tonight. East to southeast winds will increase today with the East Coast sea breeze to 10-15G20 knots this afternoon. Winds fade to 5- 10 knots along the coast after sunset and 5 knots or less at inland locations. Only some fair weather Cu at VFR levels can be expected at TAF sites this afternoon.

MARINE

High pressure ridge will set up north of the local waters today and east to southeast winds will then strengthen this afternoon, likely resulting in a period of Caution conditions for the near shore waters through the evening hours. High pressure will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states from Sunday through the middle portion of next week, keeping a persistent onshore wind flow with late afternoon and evening wind surges expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in this weather pattern during the early to middle portions of next week. A frontal boundary will then move over the southeastern states late next week resulting in gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents:

Onshore East to Southeast flow at close to 15 knots through the weekend will continue a High Risk of Rip currents with surf in the 2 to 4 feet range and will likely continue into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Over The Weekend

Bermuda high pressure will establish and lead to a dominant Atlantic sea breeze over the next several afternoons. The Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze collision will occur along the I-75 corridor this evening and Sunday evening. Isolated storms are possible this evening with greater coverage and potential for strong to severe storms possible Sunday evening. Expect winds to shift easterly with the sea breeze with gusts around 15 mph and possibly up to 20 mph at the coast. The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate near-high dispersions inland this afternoon. No concerns of low humidity through the next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog will be possible Saturday and Sunday mornings. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening along the I-75 corridor; storms will be capable of erratic, strong gusts in excess of 40 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 91 67 89 65 / 20 10 30 10 SSI 81 73 84 73 / 10 0 10 0 JAX 88 70 88 70 / 20 0 20 0 SGJ 87 72 87 73 / 10 0 10 0 GNV 94 69 92 69 / 40 30 60 30 OCF 93 69 90 70 / 50 30 70 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.