textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Cold Weather Advisory Late Tonight & Monday Morning. Wind Chills: 12-25F for Southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley & Inland Northeast FL

- Freeze Watches & Warnings for Southeast GA & Inland Northeast FL. Hard Freezes for Inland Southeast GA Late Tonight and Again Monday Night. Light Freezes for Coastal Southeast GA, Suwannee Valley & Inland Northeast FL Late Tonight & Monday Night

- Wind Advisory Tonight & Early Monday Morning for Coastal Northeast FL. Frequent Wind Gusts of 40-45 mph Expected for Locations East of I-95

- Gale Warning Late this Afternoon through Early Monday Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Currently, a large upper trough is swinging across the eastern US and rapidly deepening a surface to the northeast. The strengthening low is increasing the speed of the cold front which is quickly pressing southeastward through the warning area this afternoon before exiting to the south around sunset.

First, given the tightening gradients between the frontal trough itself and strong, arctic high pressure system, gusty winds will begin with and continue behind the frontal passage this afternoon with breezy winds continuing overnight. The strongest wind gusts will be felt along the immediate coast and beach communities where gusts are expected to top out between 40-45 mph this evening and throughout the night. Inland areas will be gusty but likely to top out in the 30-40 mph range. The Wind Advisory will be left as is (along the NE FL beaches) at this time.

Strong push of cold air will be advected into the region tonight lowering temperatures from highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s this afternoon to the low to mid 20s in SE GA and portions of NE FL along the Suwannee River valley. A light freeze is expected for inland areas north of a line from Gainesville to Naval Station Mayport. South of that line lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

The big concern with this blast of arctic air will be the Dangerously Low Wind Chills tonight as breezy winds create blustery conditions tonight through Monday morning. These dangerous wind chills will occur through the morning commute and bus stop wait for school kids - dress warm and in layers (gloves, heavy windbreaker, and earmuffs)! Low wind chills in SE GA may reach the low teens and be close to Extreme Cold Warning criteria. Parts of NE FL (Suwannee Valley) may also experience wind chill in the teens, however for most areas of NE FL, it'll feel like the low to mid 20s where temperatures reach freezing and feel like the upper 20s and low 30s to the south of the aforementioned freeze line. As such, the Cold Weather Advisory and Freeze headlines were also left as is.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure will build across the southeastern US Monday. A weak inverted trough will be located over the coastal waters. Across inland SE GA and Suwannee valley of NE FL, the high will provide mainly light winds with clear skies. Along the coast, though the onshore flow will keep winds more elevated with the clouds resulting from the trough. With cold airmass it in place, temperatures will be well below average.

The high pressure ridge will extend a little further south into area Monday night, as weak troughing remains over coastal waters off central east coast of FL. Onshore flow along the NE FL coast, will hold lows there in the lower to mid 40s. However, inland areas will have lows fall as low as the middle 20s.

The high pressure ridge will become centered to the east Tuesday, with ridge extending across forecast area. It will be a dry and mostly sunny day. Temperatures will be milder, but still trend below average.

The high center will drift a little further to the east Tuesday night, with a weak coastal trough in place. It will be a partly cloudy and milder night, with lows ranging from the middle 30s over inland SE GA, to around 50 over the NE FL coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure will be centered to the northeast Wednesday into Wednesday night, as an inverted trough remains over the coastal waters. The trough will lead to partly cloudy skies, but the flow around the back side of the high will help temperatures moderate back to above average levels for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

The high and the trough will pull east of Thursday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Thursday will be a largely dry day, but a few showers will be possible well inland later in the day. As the flow gradually comes more from the south, highs will push above average levels.

The cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday morning. The precipitation is expected to decrease in coverage as the front moves through, but showers can not be ruled out. Temperatures will continue above average Thursday night and Friday.

High pressure will build to the north Friday night, then northeast Saturday with above average temperatures continuing.

A cold front will affect the area Sunday, with a low potential for showers, as temperatures continue above normal.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

An arctic front is pushing through the region this afternoon bringing northwesterly wind gusts between 20-30 knots, mainly during the late afternoon and evening. The strong winds will be at the coastal terminals KSGJ and KSSI with gusts occasionally pushing above 30 knots. There will be a brief period of MVFR clouds with the initial frontal passage but otherwise VFR is expected through tonight. There is potential for MVFR stratocumulus to push over the water toward KSGJ, KCRG, and KSSI Monday morning but this will depend on the strength of the coastal trough.

MARINE

Winds will continue to increase across the local waters as an arctic cold front moves through this afternoon. Winds will gradually increase through the evening with strong, frequent gusts to Gale Force developing toward sunset, especially across the northeastern Florida coastal waters. Those winds will quickly increase seas tonight as well, with rough waves as high as 10 feet offshore and across the NE FL coastal waters. As winds turn northeasterly Monday, coastal troughing will develop encouraging scattered showers, mainly offshore. Weakening high pressure will then shift southward Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside. High pressure then shifts offshore on Wednesday afternoon in advance of a weakening frontal boundary that will likely cross the Georgia waters on Friday morning and may then stall over the northeast Florida waters by Friday night.

Rip Currents: SE GA High Monday NE FL High Monday

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front will move southeast of the region this afternoon. Strong high pressure will build from the northwest following the front. The high will settle across the southeastern US Monday, then move off to the east Tuesday. A cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday. High pressure will build to the north then northeast Saturday. A cold front will move through Sunday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Widespread inland Frost Monday night. Patchy frost SE GA Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 63 23 44 24 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 68 31 46 36 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 73 32 50 33 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 75 44 57 45 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 75 35 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 76 38 58 39 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-236- 322-325-422-425-522. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-124-136-220-225-232-236-322-422-425- 522. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232-236-322-422- 425-522. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Risk for Rip Currents from late tonight through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-233- 333. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. High Risk for Rip Currents from late tonight through Monday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450- 470. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.