textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches this Weekend. Moderate Risk at Southeast GA beaches

- Patchy Dense Fog Possible Sunday and Monday Morning at

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Today

- Elevated risk of rip currents Tonight

Cool dry weather with light northwesterly winds and partly cloudy skies will settle in over the forecast area today, in the wake of the frontal passage. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid to upper 70s for southeast Georgia and in upper 70s and lower 80s for northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures dropping down into the will drop down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for inland southeast Georgia and ranging between the lower to upper 50s for northeast Florida with min temps in the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s along the coast and for areas near the St Johns River.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected.

- Elevated surf and high risk of rip currents this weekend.

Fairly benign weather conditions to end the weekend and as the new week begins. Zonal flow aloft, downstream from a large cutoff, southern-stream low will persist and deliver a steady stream of thin cirrus while low level northeasterly breezes push marine stratocumulus onshore through the period result in partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies across northeast FL and coastal SE GA.

Though winds will trend light and calm overnight, relatively dry boundary layer conditions, in addition to the high cirrus, should mitigate dense fog development but patchy fog formation is possible inland.

One factor this weekend will be the brief uptick in onshore winds that will elevate rip current potential and surf heights.

A fall-like period will offer highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s inland and mid/upper 50s at the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy conditions to end the week and through the weekend.

- Chilly conditions develop next weekend.

The aforementioned upstream cutoff low will lift in open as a north- stream trough digs across the eastern third of the CONUS during the middle period next week. The leading shortwave will drift across the northern Gulf and the local area on Wednesday bringing mostly cloudy skies and possibly some sprinkles (due to limited layer moisture). The primary, a broad upper level trough will dig in behind the lead wave on Thursday and sweep through the region on Friday. Given the scarcity in layer moisture and a short period of return flow, it's unlikely this strong trough will bring substantial rain or thunderstorms to the area. However, it will bring breezy pre- and post-frontal winds beginning Thursday and continuing into next Saturday. Strong cold air advection behind the front may bring overnight lows down toward the upper 30s for portions of inland SE GA next weekend followed by highs capped in the 60s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail for regional terminals through the forecast period, with LIFR visibilities reported at VQQ and GNV during the overnight hours. Mid and high altitude cloud cover will continue overnight, with ceilings as low as around 4,500 feet possible through around 10Z. Northwesterly winds sustained around 5 knots will shift to northerly while increasing to 5-10 knots after 16Z. Winds will become more mild and variable in the evening, by around 00z to 02z.

MARINE

A cold front will have crossed over our local waters overnight and will advance further to the southeast by this morning. Northwesterly winds will strengthen over waters following the passage of the frontal boundary, followed by winds shifting to become more out of the north and then northeast by Saturday afternoon and evening as high pressure gradually builds into the southeastern states. Breezy northeasterly winds will allow seas to remain elevated at just below Caution levels for the offshore waters from Saturday afternoon through Monday. High pressure will then weaken over the southeastern states by Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside.

Rip Currents:

High risk of Rip Currents today and set through Sunday for northeast Florida beaches, with moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Conditions will trend drier through the weekend and into early next week with light to breezy northwesterly winds today gradually veering northeasterly through Sunday. Due to the lighter winds - both at the surface and the transport wind - poor dispersions are likely for the next several days. Though afternoon humidities will trend lower, critical humidity is unlikely through the next week. After a brief rebound in temperatures and humidity through the middle of next week, another strong cold front will push through the area Friday bringing chilly conditions and breezy winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog possible Sunday and Monday mornings. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 75 51 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 75 60 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 78 55 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 76 61 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 80 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 80 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from this afternoon through Monday morning for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.