textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near Critically Low Humidity Values Across Inland Southeast GA and Portions of Inland Northeast & North Central FL on Friday Afternoon.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches from Friday through the Weekend.

- Isolated Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms Beginning on Sunday and Continuing into Next Week.

UPDATE

Evening surface analysis depicts a dry cold front passing south of the Interstate 10 corridor in northeast FL, with weak high pressure (1018 millibars) building into the southeastern states in the wake of this frontal passage. Aloft...deep troughing was progressing across New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, with deep and dry northwesterly flow in place locally at the base of this trough. A few patches of stratocumulus clouds prevail ahead of the front across north central FL this evening, with fair skies otherwise in place across our area. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a much drier air mass was advecting into our area in the wake of the frontal passage, with PWATs falling below one half inch for locations along and north of the I-10 corridor, where dewpoints were in the 40s. PWATs south of I-10 ranged from one half to three quarters of an inch, where dewpoints were in the 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures were generally falling through the 70s.

High pressure will strengthen slightly overnight as it builds southward across the southern Appalachians. This will tighten our local pressure gradient from north to south after midnight, with breezy north to northeasterly winds developing along the southeast GA coast during the predawn hours, with gradually strengthening winds along coastal northeast FL towards sunrise. Fair skies and the dry air mass will allow inland lows to fall into the 50s, while the strengthening breeze keeps coastal lows generally in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

- Dry weather during the forecast period.

- Temperatures continue to warm into the weekend.

Dry conditions remain as high pressure over the region begins to shift eastward, with northeasterly winds gradually shifting southeasterly by Saturday Night. While chances remain low, can't rule out a stray shower on along the coast on Saturday afternoon with the onshore flow. Otherwise, daytime highs in the lower 80s across SE GA on Friday will rise to the upper 80s on Saturday, while mid/upper 80s across inland NE FL on Friday will rise to the lower 90s on Saturday. A bit cooler along the coast as the onshore flow will keep highs in the lower/mid 80s both days. By the evening hours, Lows will dip down into the upper 50s for SE GA and the 60s across NE FL on Friday night. A bit warmer overnight Lows Saturday night, with coastal locations in the lower 70s, and inland locations in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered afternoon showers along the sea breeze on Sunday and into next week.

Southeasterly onshore flow will persist through the forecast period as high pressure sits over the western Atlantic and the eastern seaboard. This will allow for moisture to filter into the area, with PWATs trending to around 1.5" range for most locations, higher values over NE FL. The increase in moisture should bring about increase chances for scattered showers and isolated storms along the Atlantic sea breeze each afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. There will also be coastal winds around 10 to 15 mph along NE FL coasts. Warmer temperatures through the period as highs will trend to the 90F mark for inland locations, with coastal locations in the 80s thanks to the onshore flow.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Northwesterly surface winds of 5-10 knots through around 03Z will shift to northerly at 5 knots or less by 06Z. Surface winds will then shift to northeasterly at SSI towards 10Z, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots before 11Z and then 10-15 knots and gusty after 13Z. Surface winds at the northeast FL terminals will shift to northeasterly after 14Z, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots and then 10-15 knots before 17Z.

MARINE

A dry cold front will move across the northeast Florida waters this evening, with high pressure building over the southeastern states in the wake of this frontal passage overnight. Northerly and then northeasterly winds will strengthen as this high pressure center wedges down the southeastern seaboard, resulting in strengthening northerly and then northeasterly winds beginning late tonight and continuing through at least early Friday afternoon across our local waters. Caution conditions developing over the Georgia waters after midnight, with these conditions spreading to the waters north of St. Augustine after sunrise. High pressure will then shift eastward off the southeastern seaboard by Friday evening, resulting in deepening onshore winds that will persist this weekend and into next week. Afternoon and evening wind surges this weekend may bring Caution conditions to the near shore waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible in this persistent onshore wind flow by late in the weekend and next week.

Rip Currents:

A solid Moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches rest of today, with the higher threat over St Johns and Flagler counties beaches. Another moderate risk of rip currents for Friday with onshore northeast and east winds. Probably looking at moderate risk for the weekend. Average surf heights during the period look to be about 2-3 ft, though a slight bump up in the surf possible for the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Near Critically Low Humidity Values on Friday Afternoon for Inland Southeast Georgia and Portions of Inland Northeast and North Central FL.

Northwesterly winds persists through the overnight hours, becoming northeasterly by Friday as high pressure shifts to the east. Daytime minRH values will again be near critical levels for inland southeast Georgia, but wind speeds are not expected to rise to Elevated Fire Danger criteria levels. Poor to Fair dispersion values develop on Friday as wind speeds lessen. Dispersions will begin to trend upward once again during the weekend as winds shift from the northeast to then come from the southeast on Saturday, with pockets of high dispersions possible on Sunday. Potential for afternoon showers increase on Sunday and through midweek of the upcoming week as overall wind flow will allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to push inland each afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Afternoon showers return on Sunday as southeasterly flow will allow for inland push of the Atlantic seabreeze.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 52 84 58 88 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 61 77 69 83 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 54 83 63 87 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 63 80 69 87 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 57 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 60 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.