textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today.

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Across Southeast GA Early on Tuesday Morning.

- Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations from Tuesday through Thursday.

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area- Wide from Friday through Memorial Day.

- Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today.

Today: Drier air mass with PWAT's around an inch or less will push into the local area on the south side of high pressure ridge axis. This will lead to much lower rainfall coverage with only isolated showers across inland areas this afternoon, mainly along the I-75 corridor. Max temps will push into the lower 90s well inland, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s at Atlantic beaches. Breezy East to Southeast winds will continue to develop behind the inland moving East coast sea breeze with sustained winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts to 20-25 mph at times through the afternoon hours. This wind regime will continue a high risk of rip currents at local beaches.

Tonight: Very quick end to any isolated showers over inland areas this evening, but the long fetch of East winds over the Atlantic will start to trigger some widely scattered showers over the Atlantic waters offshore tonight, some of which could push onshore during the predawn hours, but overall rainfall chances remain 20% or less for land-based areas. The increased low level moisture will help increase fog chances over inland areas of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL towards sunrise Tuesday morning. Min temps will be close to normal values with lower/middle 60s inland SE GA and mid/upper 60s inland NE FL and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast in the onshore flow.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

- Daily thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor.

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely into midweek.

Onshore flow persists through midweek as High pressure remains over the Bermuda region. Chances of precipitation return on Tuesday and Wednesday as moist air moves in from the Atlantic, bringing PWATs upwards to 1.5" each afternoon. With the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, activity will be focused over inland locations towards the I-75 corridor and north central FL each afternoon. The onshore flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up from 15mph to 20mph possible each afternoon. Daytime highs each afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior to the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will have highs in the mid to upper 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms expected along the sea breeze mergers

- Increasing chances of showers and storms this upcoming weekend.

A frontal boundary pushes towards the SE US after midweek, but is currently expected to begin to slow and stall north of the area by the end of the week. As such, Thursday will continue the pattern from earlier in the week. Onshore flow from the Atlantic, with inland showers and storms as the sea breeze pushes inland. Looking towards the weekend, the influence of the stalling front could be enough to push the high pressure eastward. Which would allow for both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze to push inland during the weekend. With PWATs expected in the 1.5" to 1.75" range by the weekend, we could see higher chances and wider coverage of showers and storms as the sea breezes push inland and meet towards central locations of the area.

Warm temperatures are expected during the forecast period as highs will sit in the lower to mid 90s across inland locations and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the 70s area-wide.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 06Z Tuesday. Periods of IFR visibilities are expected after 06Z at VQQ. Marine cumulus and stratocumulus are expected to push onshore after 08Z along the northeast FL coast, and confidence was high enough to indicate prevailing MVFR ceilings around 2,500 feet at SGJ after 10Z. A brief shower cannot be ruled out at SGJ around sunrise on Tuesday. East-southeasterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots this morning at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals will become easterly and are forecast increase to around 15 knots and gusty after 17Z. East-southeasterly surface winds elsewhere will become sustained at 5-10 knots by 14Z, followed by winds shifting to easterly and increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty after 19Z. Surface wind speeds will then diminish to around 10 knots at the coastal terminals and 5-10 knots inland by 02Z Tuesday.

MARINE

The Bermuda ridge will dominate through the week with a ridge axis extending just north of the local waters. This pattern will bring persistent east to southeast winds, with local wind surges each afternoon and evening trailing the inland progressing east coast sea breeze. Morning and midday showers will shift inland by mid-afternoon with generally clearing skies across the local waters late afternoon into the evening.

Rip Currents:

A high rip current risk continues for all local beaches early this week due to persistent onshore winds. An elevated risk will continue through the end of the week due to prevailing ESE winds.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Into Midweek.

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon heading into midweek. Patchy high dispersions will be present over inland locations Today and Tuesday. Moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week, with slightly lower values inland Today, however they will be above critical values. Moisture will steadily increases each day, with thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, mainly for inland northeast FL through Thursday, then area-wide Friday through next weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms each day Tuesday onward. Areas of locally dense fog possible early Tuesday morning for inland locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 89 64 90 64 / 0 0 20 0 SSI 82 72 84 73 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 87 68 88 69 / 0 10 0 0 SGJ 83 73 87 73 / 10 10 10 0 GNV 92 69 92 69 / 10 0 30 0 OCF 92 70 91 70 / 10 10 30 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...None.