textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible between 4 PM and Midnight

- Widespread Inland Hard Freezes likely Monday Night through Wednesday Night. Dangerous Wind Chills Expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

The widespread, significant weather system bringing winter precip/impacts to much of the southern and eastern US will bring its influence to out doorstep Today in the way of rain and embedded thunderstorms along the associated cold front.

An organizing gulf low will deepen as it rides northeastward toward the southern Appalachians this morning. This will induce a strong southerly wind and strong warm advection. Mixing within the warm sector will potentially raise temps into the low 80s across NE FL despite mostly cloudy skies.

Though it will be breezy and occasionally gusty, the overcast cloud cover will limit the potential for strong gusts (40+ mph) with the southerly low level speed max that will edge across GA late this afternoon. Winds will likely be strongest across portions of I-95 and north-central FL where the skies may scatter out during the afternoon allowing stronger winds, up to 35 mph, to reach the surface.

Timing of the frontal squall will be in our favor with it reaching the Ocmulgee/Altamaha rivers late in the afternoon as the sun begins to set, limiting available surface-based instability. Despite the diminished instability, sufficient deep shear and strong forcing along the front will continue the line of showers with embedded thunderstorms southeastward through the evening until it slowly exits offshore by daybreak Monday. The primary concern with the embedded thunderstorms will be strong winds which could be 40-50 mph with the stronger embedded cells.

After the warm prefrontal day this afternoon, with highs in the 70s and into the lower 80s for portions of NE FL, tonight's temps will begin on the warm side but begin to fall as the onset of the arctic airmass pushes into the region, dropping temps in SE GA from the 60s at 2 AM to the low/mid 40s by sunrise Monday (in a span of 5 hours).

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A few showers will likely linger over southeastern areas through mid to late Monday Morning, but otherwise decreasing cloud cover and drying out throughout the day on Monday as a breezy northwesterly wind picks up across the region. Looking at a general 10-20G25-30mph across the region during the daytime hours, except a bit higher near the immediate coast. Strong cold air advection will likely keep temps from rising very much during the daylight Monday, if at all, and "max" temperatures may technically occur at midnight the night before for some. However, daytime highs looking like the 50s to low 60s over southeast GA and 60s to low 70s over northeast FL.

Winds subside over the interior Monday Night, though will remain a bit breezy overall, especially at the coast and St. Johns River Basin area. Widespread freeze/hard freeze conditions will be expected inland, with a light freeze likely all the way towards the northeast FL coast as well. Temps tumble to the 20s to near 30 inland and low 30s near the coast and St. Johns River. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Monday Night and Tuesday Morning, with Cold Weather Advisory conditions also possible by Tuesday Morning with wind chills in the teens to low 20s likely. This product will likely be issued for much of the area later today or early Monday.

Cool and dry conditions continue through Tuesday and Tuesday Night as high pressure weakens and remains generally to the north and west of the region. Despite mostly sunny skies, highs on Tuesday will only top out in the 40s to near 50 over southeast GA and low to mid 50s over northeast FL. Some high clouds coming in Tuesday Night might hinder radiational cooling a bit, though still looking like a freeze and widespread frost will be likely for most of the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Another arctic front moves through the region on Wednesday, which will essentially reinforce high pressure ridging extending into our region from the northwest/north through at least Thursday. Yet another weak front will likely pass through around Thursday Night and Friday before the potential for yet another potent front, possibly accompanied by a deep south storm system, affects our area. Guidance is still having a fairly hard time resolving the evolution of this frontal system and possible surface low, though given the antecedent dry conditions this week and ongoing drought, have leaned towards the drier end for now. Temps trend below climo for the long term period.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Widespread IFR to LIFR low stratus will continue through improvements begin as warm front lifts through the NE FL terminals between 10- 13z. Stratus will hold on longer at KSSI, not reaching the terminal until the early afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will develop behind the warm front with gusts peaking during the afternoon hours, possible up to 30 knots at times. A cold front will bring a weakening line of showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms across the region this evening and overnight. Anticipate another period of IFR conditions to redevelop again after 00z tonight ahead of the front.

MARINE

Northeasterly winds will relax and turn southerly as a warm front lifts across the waters this morning. Strong winds offshore will continue Small Craft Advisory conditions through tonight. A strong cold front passage will bring a chance for thunderstorms across the waters tonight through Monday morning. Cold northwesterly winds will lead to another period of Small Craft Conditions Monday afternoon that will occur across all locals waters. Offshore winds will begin to decrease Tuesday and Wednesday before strengthening again Wednesday night with a dry cold frontal passage.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continue today as elevated surf around 4-6 feet continues at local beaches. Offshore winds behind the incoming cold front will lower risk as surf decreases through Monday

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Today - Patchy High Dispersions Across Southeast Georgia Monday

Warm front is lifting north of the are this morning, with a very mild day expected amidst a breezy southwesterly flow. Despite some cloud cover across much of the area and especially southeast GA, dispersions will be good to high in some areas due to the breezy and gusty conditions, as a general 10-20G30-35mph will be expected across the area. A broken line of showers with some embedded t'storms will move into interior southeast GA late this evening, with weakening expected as it progresses southeastward through tonight. A few strong to severe storms will be possible over inland GA this evening, with gusty winds up to 40-60mph the main threat.

Winds shift northwesterly tonight as a cold front moves through the area, with increasingly cool and dry conditions expected throughout Monday as well as good to marginally high dispersions. Cool and dry conditions are then expected through mid next week as high pressure will be in control.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog are expected tonight across north central FL. Frost and freeze potential returns early next week.

CLIMATE

Near Record Highs Today, January 25...

Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred.

Record High Temperatures:

January 25: KJAX: 83/2023 KGNV: 85/1950 KCRG: 81/2024

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 74 40 51 21 / 30 80 10 0 SSI 69 48 61 27 / 0 70 20 0 JAX 81 51 64 25 / 0 60 20 0 SGJ 80 57 69 31 / 0 40 20 0 GNV 82 54 65 27 / 0 70 20 0 OCF 83 58 67 28 / 0 60 20 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.