textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense Late Tonight

With surface high pressure ridge axis stretching across the area from the east northeast, a light east to southeasterly onshore flow about 5-10 mph along the coast and I-95 to less than 5 mph over inland SE GA close to the ridge axis. The onshore flow will push a weak Atlantic seabreeze inland to highway 301 through the rest of the afternoon with winds increasing 5-10 mph. Mid to upper level ridging aloft has a dry airmass above the boundary layer with PWATs below average similar to yesterday near 1 inch and limiting cumulus cloud growth to areas south of I-10 as the seabreeze moves inland. The mostly sunny conditions have allowed temperatures to reach well into the 80s inland and a few spots may reach 90 degrees well west of US-17 the coast stays in the low/mid 80s.

Tonight, the high pressure ridge axis will depart to the east as ridging aloft shifts off the NC/SC coast into the western Atlantic waters to our northeast. Light southeast winds will become calm inland and fog will redevelop again late tonight, with guidance agreeing on areas of locally dense fog setting up from along I-10 just west of Jacksonville to portions of the Suwannee Valley north and east into inland SE GA and the SE GA coast.

Lows will be in the mid 60s north of I-10 and upper 60s to near 70 south of I-10, and low 70s along the NE FL coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Potential for a few storms over north central FL Friday afternoon/evening

-Coastal hazards begin late Friday night into Saturday with beginning stages of elevated water levels, high rip current risk, and rough surf and seas.

- Northerly winds expected to gust to around 35 mph on Saturday and Saturday night, with a potential for gusts of 40 mph along the coastal areas of northeast FL, which would necessitate a wind advisory along the coast

A cold front pushes into the area from the northwest Friday evening, shifting south of the area by Saturday morning. High pressure will then begin to build north of the area behind the cold front passage.

Southwesterly winds will be in place Friday ahead of the approaching frontal, bringing warm temperatures across inland locations with daytime highs reaching into the the mid to upper 80s, while a weak east coast breeze will keep coastal locations a bit cooler in the low to mid 80s. An influx of moisture from the south/southeast could bring the development of some scattered showers along north central FL locations, where PWATs are expected around 1.8" to 1.9" range. By the overnight hours temperatures will be in the lower 60s across SE GA and the mid to upper 60s along inland NE FL, with mid 60s to lower 70s along the coast.

The building high pressure north of the area will result in strong north/northeast winds to develop over the local waters and towards coastal locations on Saturday. Winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of around 35 mph will be possible beginning Saturday afternoon, and persisting through the overnight hours into Sunday, with coastal showers also likely. After the passage of the cold front, cooler temperatures will bring daytime highs will range in the 70s, with warmer temperatures by the coast and north central FL. Overnight Lows will be in the lower 50s to mid 60s, warmer temperatures again over north central FL and coastal locations.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected from Sunday through Tuesday

High pressure over the north and then the northeast of the area will continue to bring strong winds through the end of the weekend into the upcoming week across the local waters and coastal locations, with chances of showers also persisting for these locations. Winds continue to be expected around the mid 20 mph range, with gusts possibly in the 35 to 40 mph along the coast and offshore waters, with winds beginning to decrease heading into midweek.

The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken.

Temperatures will be below average during the period, with daytime highs around the mid to upper 70s during the weekend, upper 70s to lower 80s by next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

For the 18z TAF period, mostly sunny skies will continue as high pressure remains stretched across the area. Easterly winds 5-10 knots will shift more southeasterly by sunset and decrease to under 5 knots along the coast and become calm inland. Fog will develop again late tonight after 06Z with MVFR level restrictions through 09Z and then lowering to IFR/LIFR VSBY as fog expands towards sunrise 09Z-12Z with tempo restrictions at VQQ for VLIFR.

Friday morning, fog will lift by 14Z with very light winds turning westerly 3-5 knots and few low level clouds 2.5-3.0 kft and slowly increasing high level clouds well ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest.

MARINE

High pressure will be over the area Today, then weaken as it shifts east northeast of the area Tonight into Friday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night. Strong high pressure will build behind the front. A surge of north winds will move south down the coastal waters behind the front, with elevated winds from late Friday night through much of next week, with potential for Gale force winds late Saturday into Monday.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk through Friday. High risk of rip currents with rough surf from Saturday through much of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions This Afternoon - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday

High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting today. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week.

Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair to good dispersions expected over NE FL.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is possible late tonight and early Friday morning hours. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required. There is a low chance for thunderstorms over north central FL Friday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin this weekend and early next week as strong northeasterly winds develop. Some significant beach erosion is possible by Sunday, especially coastal northeast FL, as seas for the nearshore waters build to the 10-15 ft range through Monday night while southeast GA nearshore seas mainly in the 8-13 ft range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 64 87 62 70 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 86 67 74 / 0 0 0 30 JAX 66 89 68 74 / 0 10 0 10 SGJ 70 88 70 76 / 0 20 20 20 GNV 67 89 69 76 / 0 10 20 10 OCF 69 89 70 76 / 0 20 30 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.