textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Continue this Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Surf Advisories Today. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Within the St. Johns River Basin. Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Along Portions of the Northeast FL Coast

- Strong Northeasterly Winds Develop Friday Night Along the I-95 Corridor. Moderate Tidal and Coastal Flooding Likely During the Upcoming Weekend. Gale Conditions Possible for the Local Atlantic Waters. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions with a High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches

- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible this Weekend for Coastal Northeast FL

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards Continue with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding during high tide

- Breezy northeast winds continue today but mainly for the coastal areas.

- Widespread low temps in the 40s over inland SE GA/inland North FL this morning

Northeast flow will continue today and tonight as strong high pressure continues across the northeast U.S. with the associated ridge axis southward over the eastern U.S. Meanwhile, low pressure system continues to meander east of the North Carolina Outer Banks. This combination will continue the northeast low level flow and the dry conditions. Winds forecast during the daytime for the eastern zones up to 15-20 mph and diminish to only 5-10 mph further inland. A mid to upper level disturbance, rotating around mid level ridge over the western Gulf, will move southeast over GA and SC tonight which will enhance coastal troughing offshore late tonight and early Wednesday. Overall, mostly clear to clear skies expected with the dry air airmass persisting. But, as the coastal trough develops offshore late tonight, a development of additional stratocumulus clouds expected to move to the northeast FL coast by early Wednesday morning. Precip- free weather will continue despite the coastal trough developing.

For temps, chilly lows this morning in the 40s for southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley and lower 50s to around 60 at the coast for rest of the area and the coastline. Max temps today expected to rise to the mid to upper 70s with plenty of sun. Similar overnight lows expected again tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies, except for some partly cloudy skies at times over the northeast FL coast after midnight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue into mid week with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding.

- Below normal temperatures this period.

High pressure conditions and drier air will persist over the forecast area through midweek, dominating the weather pattern through Wednesday and Thursday resulting in dry weather and clear skies. Breezy northeasterly onshore winds allow the daytime sea breeze to press inland over northeast Florida, with increased diurnal winds reaching towards the I-75 corridor. High temperatures for midweek will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 40s over southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 50s for northeast Florida, and in the upper 50s for areas along the coast and near the St Johns River.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate Coastal Flooding impacts within the St Johns river Basin, ICW, and the Atlantic coast, significant beach erosion, high surf, and high risk of rip currents Friday into next weekend

- Locally heavy rainfall potential along the NE FL coast next weekend

Predominantly cool and dry conditions will continue through the end of the week, with chances for showers and possible thunderstorms increasing over the weekend for coastal areas and extending into northeast Florida with with the diurnal sea breeze, enhanced by onshore flow. The pressure gradient over the region, situated between the high pressure ridge to the north and an area of low pressure to the south, will tighten before Saturday resulting in gusty onshore winds coinciding with higher astronomical tides leading to high risk for rip currents, high and rough surf, coastal flooding, and beach erosion impacts for areas ranging from along the coast on into the St Johns River Basin. Temperatures will continue to be below the seasonal average through the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR will prevail for the TAFs this period. Outside of some mainly VFR stratocu clouds for CRG, JAX, and SGJ at 3500 ft through about 18z today, SKC conditions expected. May start to get another deck of stratocu clouds off the Atlantic coming in for SGJ and CRG by the end of this TAF forecast period. Northerly surface winds will remain sustained around 10 knots overnight at SGJ, while speeds elsewhere diminish to around 5 knots. North- northeasterly surface winds will then increase to 10-15 knots and gusty at Duval County terminals, SGJ, and SSI by 14Z, while speeds at GNV increase to 5-10 knots by 14Z.

MARINE

Gusty northeast winds will continue to create hazardous seas throughout the local waters as strengthening low pressure meanders to the east of the North Carolina Outer Banks and high pressure pushes down the east coast. Seas will slowly diminish across the near shore waters adjacent to southeast Georgia by midweek as low pressure begins to move away, while Small Craft Advisory level seas will persist elsewhere through Friday. Another strong high pressure center will then build out of the Great Lakes and New England on Friday, and push north to northeast winds up to gale force by Friday evening, keeping hazardous marine conditions in place through the weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continues much of this week given the elevated surf conditions and onshore flow. Though the high advisory will be eventually dropped over the area beaches over the next day or so, elevated surf will continue to be a problem the next few days for any swimmer entering the surf zone. Looking ahead, high surf advy looks probable again for the weekend as northeast flow increases.

FIRE WEATHER

- Elevated Nighttime Dispersions Along The Coast This Week

- Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Near The Coast Into Midweek

High pressure will build into the area from the north through Wednesday as a an area of low pressure develops northeast of the region bring breezy winds inland 12-18 mph with gusts to 25 mph and 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph along the coast today, decreasing overnight to 5-10 mph overnight inland and 10-15 mph along the coast with gusts to 25 mph. Skies will trend mostly sunny as a drier airmass arrives into the area from the north with only scattered clouds along the NE Florida coast Wednesday. Daytime dispersions will be in the good range through midweek with patchy high dispersions possible near the coast. Night time dispersions will be elevated at coastal locations this evening as elevated onshore winds persist.

Min RH values will remain just above critical levels, falling to the 30-35 percent range over interior SE Georgia and across the Suwannee Valley of NE Florida.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days.

HYDROLOGY

The Satilla River at Atkinson is nearly steady today and tonight just above 14 ft and a gradual fall anticipated after Wednesday. Thus, Minor Flooding will continue along portions of the lower Satilla River Basin through the end of the work week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

The persistent onshore flow and the past weekend's strong northeast wind event will allow for minor tidal coastal flooding to be the main concern for the St Johns River Basin and along part of the northeast FL coast this week. Water levels generally peak up to 1.5 to 1.9 feet MHHW, with the higher end departures near and south of the Shands Bridge area. One area to watch will be in Putnam county where the values are close to 2 feet MHHW which could warrant a coastal flood warning. Departures have eased a bit in the St Johns River as the winds have relaxed since this weekend, but are still upwards of around 1 to 1.4 ft.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another surge of northeast winds and the full moon on Sunday Oct 25th will push water levels up further, especially for the coast. Confidence is growing for moderate tidal flooding and coastal flood watches/warnings may be needed.

At the beaches, minor to moderate beach erosion will continue especially at times of high tide due to the rough surf and a gradual increase in tidal levels as we approach the full moon later this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 75 48 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 75 60 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 74 53 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 75 62 78 62 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 77 52 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 78 54 81 55 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-125- 132-137-138-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for GAZ154- 166. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-454- 472-474. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ470.