textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Cold Weather Outbreak This Weekend & Early Next Week. Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory for Inland Locations Tonight. Extreme Cold Watch Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Possible Inland and Lower 20s at Coastal Locations. Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the Teens & Single Digits

- Windy Coastal Conditions Saturday and Saturday Night. Gusts up to 40 MPH at NE FL Beaches. Gale Conditions Across Coastal Waters

- LOW Potential for Snowfall Saturday and Saturday Evening. Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) are 5-10% Across Southeast GA

UPDATE

Have expanded the Frost advisory this evening to include most areas west of US-17 including western Clay, Putnam, and most of Marion county including Ocala. A slight downtrend in guidance helps support colder inland lows as skies remain mostly clear tonight with calm winds away from the beaches. Freeze warning remains in effect for inland SE GA where lows will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s. Lows along the coast and St Johns river will only fall to the low 40s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Freezing low temperatures are expected tonight for portions of inland southeast Georgia, with lows in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere inland with 40s near the coast. Calm winds overnight will allow for areas to widespread frost formation not only in the Freeze Warning area, but for portions of inland northeast Florida as well, where a Frost Advisory is now in effect.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Low pressure will shift across the FL panhandle, reaching the Atlantic by Saturday morning. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday as the Low pressure shifts across the area. This will allow for warmer air to filter into the area, which will bring daytime highs to in the 60s area-wide. By Friday night, isolated showers may be possible across SE GA and NE FL as the Low pushes over the Atlantic. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s as winds shift to become northwesterly, bringing in colder air into the area.

By Saturday the surface Low will begin to deepen over the Atlantic waters leading to northwesterly winds to gradually increase locally through the afternoon hours, continuing the advection of colder air into the local area. We could see some light wintry mix during the afternoon to evening hours on Saturday as moisture moves onshore, with chances of any wintry precip mainly along the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA and coastal locations. With cold air filtering into the area will bring overnight temperatures to dip into the teens across SE GA and the lower 20s across NE FL, with a Freeze Watch in place area-wide. The elevated northwesterly winds will cause for wind chills to drop into the single digits by Sunday morning, promptly the insurance of an Extreme Cold Watch (the first for the JAX CWA). With the cold temperatures expected to last well into the afternoon hours on Sunday, both watches currently are in effect until 1pm Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Dry and cold conditions on Sunday as the Low continues to shift towards the north-northeast. The elevated winds will begin to weaken by Sunday night as high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will begin to warm through the upcoming week as highs will reach into the 50s on Monday and Tuesday and then the 60s by Wednesday and Thursday. Freeze products will likely be needed on Sunday/Monday night as sub freezing temperatures remain over the area.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

The 00Z TAF period will feature prevailing VFR conditions. Light east winds will become calm by 02Z at all sites as weakening high pressure stays over the area. Higher level clouds will increase on Saturday afternoon as low pressure begin to develop to the west of the area with light winds from the southwest varying to the northwest.

MARINE

Light east to northeast winds will become variable Friday as weakening high pressure remains over the waters. A developing low pressure system will shift east from the Gulf coast to off the Carolina coast Friday night into early Saturday with a powerful arctic front plunging across the waters Saturday afternoon. This very strong front will bring strong winds and gusts across the waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale- force Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon as the low deepens as it moves northeastward. There will be a low chance of a mix of rain and snow showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around the low leading to occasional periods of low visibility. High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during the early and middle part of next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish.

FIRE WEATHER

- MinRH levels below 30 percent will be common Sunday and Monday - Low daytime Dispersions inland Friday and Wednesday - Widespread High daytime Dispersions Saturday and Sunday - Areas of high dispersions Monday

Low pressure will develop northeast of the region Today, then track away to the northeast over the weekend. A very cold airmass will be in place over the weekend. High pressure will build early in the week. A cold front will move southaast across area Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing chances for rain.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected this morning or Tonight. Snow may mix with rain at times over SE GA and coastal NE FL Saturday and Saturday night.

CLIMATE

Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

Saturday, January 31: JAX 40/1909 CRG 43/1977 GNV 47/1909 AMG 44/1948

Sunday, February 1: JAX 42/1900 CRG 44/1980 GNV 41/1909 AMG 42/1980

Record Low Temperatures:

Sunday, February 1: JAX 24/1977 CRG 29/1977 GNV 25/1977 AMG 22/1977

Monday, February 2:

JAX 23/1979 CRG 27/1980 GNV 25/1980 AMG 19/1951

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 29 60 33 42 / 0 10 20 20 SSI 41 60 41 51 / 0 0 20 20 JAX 35 66 39 51 / 0 10 20 10 SGJ 41 67 44 56 / 0 0 20 10 GNV 34 68 40 51 / 0 0 20 10 OCF 34 69 41 53 / 0 0 20 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422- 425-522. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125- 132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333- 340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ153-165. Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250- 264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149- 151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.