textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Daily Thunderstorms through Monday, Mainly During the Afternoon and early evening. - Isolated daily strong to severe storms possible. Main thunderstorm hazards: Locally damaging wind gusts, Small Hail & Lightning. - Small Craft Advisory likely for area waters Tuesday through. High rip current risk possible Tuesday - Exceptional to Extreme Drought continues Wildfire Risk

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Light widely scattered showers continue to spill into along the I-10 corridor and southeast Georgia this Sunday morning with southwesterly flow aloft. In addition patchy fog will start to erode between 1330 thru 15z this morning as daytime heating gets going. Main concerns are the low cigs and vsby of IFR and LIFR category for the TAFs except for less chance for SGJ. Cigs will begin to improve by 15z, and anticipate isolated to widely scattered showers by 16z-18z. There will be good chances of showers and storms this afternoon near 18z through 22z, and have included TEMPO group for the mid to late aftn hours. There is a chance for some stronger storms along the first coast, where the coastal counties may obtain some gusty winds of 40 mph and frequent lightning. High resolution models show showers and storms starting to push offshore around 22z. May have to enhance TEMPO groups for Duval County and St. Augustine TAF this afternoon to account for the stronger storms. Mainly VFR after storms depart offshore this very late afternoon through early evening. Patchy BR may occur during the overnight hours once again.

MARINE

A frontal boundary near the Florida/Georgia border today will slowly weaken and dissipate through tonight. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, with isolated strong to possible a severe thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A stronger cold front will then push into the local waters Monday evening. Northwest to north winds will strengthen late Monday night in the wake of the frontal passage, with winds likely reaching Small Craft Advisory levels which will likely continue into Tuesday night. Weak high pressure will briefly build over the area Wednesday, and then a dry cold front moves into the area on Thursday.

Rip Currents:

A low to moderate risk expected today and Monday with surf that is at or below 2 feet. The risk is higher within a few hours of low risk and especially more prone near sandbars. Next chance of solid Moderate to High Risk of rip currents is next Tuesday and likely Wednesday due to stronger onshore winds and surf conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

LOW DISPERSIONS ALONG THE COAST TODAY - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Monday - Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Thursday

Frontal boundary remains across the area today and tonight with light west southwest winds 5-10 mph late this morning pushing the Gulf seabreeze towards highway 301 and Atlantic seabreeze moving to US-17 by mid afternoon. Energy aloft, strong daytime heating, and convergence along the seabreezes/front will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Weak winds and low mixing heights will create low dispersions along the coast today. Another cold front will move southeast across the area Monday into Monday night with more numerous showers and storms as breezy west southwest winds pin the Atlantic seabreeze near I-95 where storms will focus before additional storms later with the incoming front. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential through Monday afternoon with main impacts being gusty winds 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, small hail and heavy downpours.

Tuesday, high pressure builds in slowly from the north with breezy northeast winds, but remaining moisture will remain behind the front stalling just southeast of the area with scattered showers south of Waycross and scattered storms along and south of I-10. High pressure will weaken and shift to the east northeast Wednesday with isolated showers and storms developing along the merging Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes over Northeast FL. Dry cold front moves through Thursday, high pressure will build overhead Friday and Saturday. Dispersions will be high Thursday from higher transport winds and mixing heights.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog this morning for inland locations near and north of the front mostly I-10 northward, but significant fog is not expected. Patchy fog will return over inland areas again tonight especially in areas with locally heavy rain. Gusty and erratic winds expected in and near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 84 65 85 62 / 30 20 60 50 SSI 80 69 84 67 / 50 20 70 70 JAX 83 68 88 65 / 60 30 80 70 SGJ 82 71 88 69 / 60 30 70 70 GNV 86 68 89 67 / 60 20 50 50 OCF 88 70 89 69 / 30 20 20 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.