textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Daily Thunderstorms through Monday, Mainly During the. Isolated daily strong to severe storms possible. Main thunderstorm hazards: Locally damaging wind gusts & lightning

- Exceptional to Extreme Drought continues Wildfire Risk

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Continue Today, Especially Along and North of I-10

Frontal boundary is analyzed near the southern border of the JAX CWA early this morning per WPC analysis, with scattered showers and some embedded t'storms continuing early this morning just north of the boundary where some elevated instability remains. Aside from some isolated light rain across inland GA, hi res guidance is overall in good agreement with respect to a break in any rain chances for the majority of the area later this morning, before the frontal boundary lifts northward into northeast FL around midday.

Another frontal wave then looks to fill in numerous showers and embedded t'storms this afternoon and evening, with some potential for diurnal convective enhancement as this activity approaches the nearly pinned east coast sea breeze with a modest west to southwest flow today. Both low level and effective shear are not expected to be as strong today as compared to Friday, though with enough instability and plenty of moisture in place, isolated strong to possibly marginally severe cells once again cannot be ruled out, especially closer to the frontal boundary and/or sea breeze boundary. Primary hazard would be wind gusts of 40+ mph, though some small hail and an isolated landspout/weak tornado cannot be ruled out as well.

Despite plenty of cloud cover and the numerous showers/storms, the more westerly flow will allow temps to rise mostly into the 80s, with some readings near 90 towards the Marion/Putnam/Flagler County area. Most activity will come to an end late this evening similar to Friday Night, aside from some isolated showers/light rain lingering thanks to the boundary remaining nearly stationary over the area. Lows tonight will be mild, in the mid 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered Showers & T'storms Sunday across Southeast GA and Northeast FL - Stronger Cold Frontal Passage Likely Monday

Sunday, wavy frontal boundary will remain near the FL/GA state line. A large mid to upper level trough extending southwestward from the Great Lakes and Ontario will swing its trough axis east across the southern plains Sunday. Well ahead of this feature, a stream of shortwave energy will move east along the Gulf coast into our area through the day. At the surface, weak Bermuda high pressure ridge axis extending into south FL will promote west to southwest flow and continue a feed of abundant moisture over the area. Light SW winds 5- 10 mph will push the GUlf seabreeze inland while pinning the the Atlantic seabreeze east of I-95. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will allow enough diurnal heating that combined with the front and instability aloft will promote scattered showers and T'storms. Less shear overall Sunday compared to Saturday should limit overall potential for Isolated Severe T'storms, but strong thunderstorms may develop along the Atlantic seabreeze and frontal boundaries and produce wind gusts 40-50 mph, small hail, frequent lightning and briefly heavy downpours as the main hazards.

Most common rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter inch, but locally heavy totals of around an inch certainly possible where stronger T'storms occur. Some showers may continue after sunset due to shortwave energy continuing to stream across the area with light rainfall amounts.

Highs Sunday will be above normal in the upper 80s over NE FL and near normal in the low to mid 80s over SE GA near to just north of the frontal boundary. Lows Sunday night will be above normal in the mid 60s over SE GA and the upper 60s to near 70 over NE FL due to mostly cloudy skies.

Monday, the trough axis will shift across the Ozarks into the TN Valley, supporting a surface cold front moving east across the deep south and Gulf coast towards our area in the afternoon. Strong broad scale lift and above normal PWATs 1.6-1.8 will create numerous to widespread showers with general rainfall totals around an 1.0 to 1.5 inches across SE GA with decreasing totals of NE FL except for localized higher totals from T'storms. Ahead of the front, increasing low level 850 mb winds up to 30-35 knots combined with increasing instability aloft will bring a potential for isolated strong to severe T'storms with gusty winds 40-60 mph the main concern.

Breezy WSW winds 10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph ahead of the front will bring warm highs into the mid to upper 80s over NE FL with isolated low 90s along the St Johns river basin while SE GA highs remain in the low to mid 80s. Showers and isolated T'storms will remain over the area Monday night as the front will be slow to push through as the trough axis eventually shifts east of the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier Conditions Look to Return Tuesday/Wednesday

The front will move through slowly, but is expected to clear to the south Tuesday with very breezy NE winds as high pressure builds north of the region.

Wednesday, the high will move to the northeast and weaken as another upstream trough, this one more compact, dives ESE from the Upper plains into the OH valley and Great Lakes. Onshore flow will turn more light and easterly with the Atlantic seabreeze moving well inland. An isolated T'storm may develop across north central FL where strong heating and better low level moisture fields will be supportive.

Thursday and Friday, a cold front will drop southward through the area, but should remain dry as high pressure builds to the north through Friday. An overall weak pressure gradient pattern and abundant sunshine will allow for daily seabreeze circulations, but no showers expected.

Temperatures during the period will begin below normal on Tuesday and warm above normal Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

SHRA and TSRA are coming to an end early this morning, though deep low level moisture will result in MVFR and some IFR conditions to develop over the next several hours, if not starting to occur already at some airfields. At least TEMPO IFR is expected at all terminals, which is most likely to become prevailing at inland sites like VQQ and GNV with added moisture near the Gulf and close to a nearly stalled frontal boundary. Improvement is expected though with areas of MVFR persisting later this morning and early afternoon before SHRA and TSRA potential increases once again. Have included PROB30 groups at all terminals for TSRA given the confidence in overall coverage, with TEMPO groups likely to be added in future updates for more narrowed down impacts. At least MVFR conditions, possibly IFR, will be likely once again towards the end of the forecast period after rain/convection coverage wanes late this evening.

MARINE

A frontal boundary just south of northeast Florida waters will lift north into the waters today and remain in place as a stationary front this weekend. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through this weekend, with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible. A stronger cold front will then push through the local waters on Monday. Northwesterly winds will strengthen to Caution levels late Monday evening in the wake of the frontal passage, with winds quickly shifting to northerly Monday Night and increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels on Tuesday as high pressure builds north of the region.

Rip Currents:

Low to Moderate risk of rip currents expected this weekend and likely into early next week, with surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet. Next chance of solid Moderate to High Risk of rip currents is next Tuesday with surge of Northeast winds expected.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Ne Fl This Weekend - Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Tuesday Through Thursday

A frontal boundary will linger across the area through the rest of the weekend, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving east along it. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon hours will bring potential for gusty winds 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, small hail and heavy downpours. A cold front will move southeast across the area Monday into Monday night with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe storms. High pressure will build to the north on Tuesday with breezy northeast winds, then build east northeast mid week. After another front moves through on Thursday, high pressure ridging will build overhead Friday. Dispersions will be high Tuesday into Thursday due to increased transport winds and increasing mixing heights.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog this morning near the I- 75 corridor of inland Northeast Florida, but significant fog is not expected Saturday night. Gusty and erratic winds expected in and near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 79 66 83 66 / 80 60 80 50 SSI 79 70 80 70 / 90 50 80 30 JAX 85 69 86 69 / 80 40 80 20 SGJ 88 71 87 71 / 60 20 80 10 GNV 88 70 89 71 / 30 20 40 10 OCF 90 70 90 70 / 20 10 20 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.