textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues Along the St Johns River in Putnam. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Elsewhere Along the St Johns River in NE FL

- Atlantic Coast and ICWW Today. High Risk for Rip Currents with High Surf at the beach south of St Augustine into Flagler Beach. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Breezy Gusts at the Beaches Today and Sunday (around 30-35 mph)

- Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 for Northeast FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues within the St Johns River basin

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Scattered showers will spread onshore today, first along the coast of SE GA early this afternoon ahead of a slowly sinking cold front. As the front sinks to the FL/GA state line, the showers, driven by coastal convergence, increasing moisture levels, and lift from the front will shift southward to the Jacksonville visitant and the I- 10 corridor by the mid to late afternoon hours with a few brief showers even drifting into the NE FL coast southward to Flagler Beach and Palm Coast areas. Overall rainfall amounts will be under a tenth of an inch, a bit higher at the immediate SE GA coast. High pressure will wedge down the southeast coast north of the front with NE winds increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to around 30 mph along the coast and 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph inland.

The elevated onshore flow will make for dangerous rip currents at the beaches that will be dangerous for swimmers through this evening and overnight

With plentiful cloud cover, highs will be in the upper 70s along the coast and low 80s over the interior of NE FL west of the St Johns river and inland Flagler and St Johns counties to near 80 over inland SE GA.

All Hallows Eve, the sun will set (perhaps never to rise again) and winds will quell inland to a gentile 5-10 mph while staying higher along the coast 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Scattered showers along I-10 will spread into the remainder of NE FL after the midnight hour along with gloomy cloud cover overnight. Low temperatures will be cooler over the interior of SE GA into the mid 60s with more humidity and northeast flow providing for upper 60s along I-10 of NE FL and the lows along the NE FL coast. No frightful fog is expected.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Sun- Mon

Breezy ENE winds continue across the area as strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday as a diffused stationary front remains draped across central FL and an upper shortwave trough gradually closes off the SW FL coast. Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.7- 2.0"), strong ascent and frictional convergence will lead to rounds of showers capable of producing heavy rainfall moving through NE FL and SE GA, mainly late Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the best lift will be. WPC has placed the I- 95 corridor of NE FL in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for both Sunday and Monday where convergent bands could develop and train over coastal areas. Rainfall amounts have trended downward with this cycle but a few places could see 2-3 inches. Wet and overcast conditions will keep temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential returns next week.

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions.

Upper low over south FL on Tuesday weakens and gets absorbed by an approaching longwave trough digging into the SE US mid-week next week. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary over south FL lifts northward as a warm front on Wednesday then a cold front moves through the SE US Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are anticipated each day across the region with ample moisture and lift. Onshore flow will shift to SSW toward the end of the week with the passing cold front bringing relief to the coastal hazards especially in the St. Johns river. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

The 18Z TAF period will begin with showers intermittent at SSI with prevailing VFR ceilings scattered 2.5-3.5 kft and broken mid to high level clouds overhead. Winds are increasing to 15 knots gusting to 25 knots at JAX and SSI and will spread to CRG and SGJ over the next hour or so while inland sites increase to 12-14 knots inland gusting between 20-25 knots this afternoon. Showers will be scattered in coverage near the Duval county Terminals and along the NE FL coast while chances too low near GNV through tonight.

Overcast high level clouds will lower to overcast mid level clouds this evening. Keeping only VCSH at SSI this evening after 00Z as the front weakens as it sinks into Northeast FL. However, inverted troughing developing over the waters will redevelop showers late tonight and have included a PROB30 group after 06Z for MVFR ceilings and visibility restrictions from coastal showers moving onshore. Winds will diminish some along the coast after 00Z to 10-12 knots and gusting to 20 knots with just under 10 knots inland overnight. Low stratus developing inland should mainly stay west of the TAF sites.

Sunday, showers will gradually increase in coverage across the area a disturbance aloft arrives from the west with easterly winds becoming breezy 10-15 knots and gusts to around 20 knots.

MARINE

A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT..

A weakening cold front sinking southward will lead to breezy east- northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Waves of showers will move through the area today and increase in coverage Sunday into Monday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily for areas south of I-10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport winds, overcast skies will keep mixing heights low and maintain fair to good daytime dispersions. However, lingering breezy winds along the coast will lead to high nighttime dispersions tonight and Sunday night. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for minor coastal flooding limited primarily within the St Johns river through the remainder of the weekend. The exception is eastern Putnam county where a Coastal Flood Warning continues at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 64 76 63 79 / 10 20 20 20 SSI 65 76 65 75 / 40 30 50 60 JAX 67 78 66 77 / 30 60 60 60 SGJ 71 78 68 76 / 10 40 60 70 GNV 69 80 66 81 / 20 30 50 50 OCF 70 80 67 81 / 20 30 40 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125- 132-225-325-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ137. High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ138-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.