textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Continue into the Weekend. Elevated Fire Danger Today Across Inland Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley Due to the Combination of Low Humidity and Breezy Winds. Practice Wildfire Prevention and Avoid Activities with Open Flames or Sparks. Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues Nearly Area-Wide

- Dense Smoke Advisory through Noon Thursday in Clinch & Echols Counties. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality Check airnow.gov for current levels

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible This Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

- Dense Smoke Expected Near Large Wildfires

- Monitor AirNow.gov for current air quality index levels.

Surface ridging over the southeastern seaboard gradually weakens through tonight. Calm winds and strong subsidence will cause smoke from local wildfires to settle close to the ground in the early morning hours. Lowest visibilities will be localized near the larger wildfires but unhealthy air quality persists especially across SE GA. Dense Smoke Advisory continues for Clinch and Echols counties due to smoke from the expansive Pineland Road fire (~29,600 acres). Will monitor smoke from the other major wildfires if the Dense Smoke Advisory needs to be expanded. Smoke will begin to disperse in the late morning as SE winds develop. The Atlantic sea breeze will shift inland this afternoon developing breezy ESE winds in its wake. This will spread smoke associated with local wildfires to the WNW generally away from the coast. Low level moisture has gradually increased to the area with PWATs increasing to 0.8-1 in. but likely not enough to support any shower development. Winds decouple once again tonight worsening visibility and air quality from smoke. Temperatures increase to slightly above seasonable with highs in the upper 70s along the coast to low-mid 80s further inland. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to the low 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Dry weather and moderating temperatures will continue elevated fire weather conditions Friday

-Dense smoke can be expected near wildfire locations during the overnight and early morning hours

Friday, the high will move further east into the Atlantic waters with light southerly low level flow, allowing Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze to progress to highway 301 by late afternoon. Moisture will increase to near average with Precipitable Water levels of between 1.0-1.20 inches and support widely isolated showers well south of I-10. Highs will rise into the upper 80s to near 90 inland cool down to the low 80s at the coast.

Lows Friday night will be in the upper 50s to near 60 inland and the low to mid 60s at the coast. Light southerly winds remain at the coast 4-8 mph becoming calm inland. Potential will remain for dense smoke in the vicinity of active wildfires.

Saturday, weakening mid to upper level support still appears to slow down an approaching front from the northwest with southwest flow over the area ahead of it. Increasing moisture and strong diurnal heating will lead to scattered showers and isolated to scattered T'storms over SE GA onto portions of NE FL close to I-10 along with measurable rainfall amounts of near a quarter inch with no rain further southward over north central FL. Not expecting severe T'storms due to weak shear.

Lift from the front and energy aloft will continue showers and isolated T'storms into the early evening hours. Mostly cloudy skies and light southwest flow will keep lows mild in the low 60s inland and the mid 60s along the coast Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Showers and isolated storms possible this weekend/early next week

-Above normal temperatures continue through the period

-Elevated wildfire risk continues due to isolated storm activity

Sunday,shortwave energy will move across the frontal boundary as it sinks into SE GA providing extra lift over the area leading to scattered T'storms developing in the afternoon as seabreezes work inland from the coast. An increase in shear from the west northwest will increase potential for isolated severe T'storms. Measurable rainfall will extend in Northeast FL, but overall amounts will be under a quarter of an inch.

Monday, the frontal boundary will lift northward as strong high pressure well to the north moves off the New England coast with northeasterly flow weakening and allowing both seabreezes to form as southerly flow increases aloft.

Tuesday, a strong mid/upper level trough will move east across the OH valley with increasing instability and shear ahead of a cold front that will provide potential for strong to severe T'storms forming ahead of the front. Too soon for confidence in rainfall totals and locations, but high end guidance suggests up to an inch of rain could occur if stronger T'storms materialize.

Wednesday, there is less certainty in the location of the frontal boundary across southern GA and whether it lifts north or remains stationary along with the degree of mid to upper level energy. For now have isolated showers and T'storms with west to west southwest flow likely pinning the Atlantic seabreeze near the coast.

Temperatures will remain above normal during the period.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Smoke and potentially some pockets of fog are expected to impact the terminals during the predawn and early morning hours bringing at least MVFR visibilities. Lower restrictions will be possible at SSI, SGJ, VQQ and GNV due to their closer proximity to ongoing wildfires. These visibility restrictions should improve to VFR by 15Z as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland and blows the smoke toward the WNW. ESE winds around 10 kts develop in the wake of the sea breeze after 17Z.

MARINE

High pressure situated along the southeastern seaboard will gradually weaken and shift southeastward through Friday night. Southeasterly winds will increase across the near shore waters each afternoon through Saturday behind the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze, with winds shifting to southerly during the early evening hours and then southwesterly after midnight. A frontal boundary will sink into the southeastern states by Saturday evening, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible on Saturday afternoon ahead of this boundary. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday night and Sunday as this front stalls near the Georgia waters. This front will then lift northward early next week ahead of another front that will approach our local waters towards the middle portion of next week.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk of rip currents will likely continue through the week at the area beaches, where onshore winds will strengthen each afternoon, with surf heights of 2-4 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

-Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Today for portions of Inland Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

-Critically low humidity values over inland Southeast Georgia and portions of inland Northeast Florida Through Friday

-Areas of High Daytime Dispersions Today

-Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Saturday

Dry conditions will persist Today with dry fuels and Min RH values below critical levels over portions of inland Northeast Florida and all of inland Southeast Georgia creating Elevated Fire Danger conditions similar to yesterday. Light southeasterly winds will turn easterly behind the Atlantic seabreeze passage as it moves to I-75 by late afternoon with high mixing heights and moderate transport winds creating areas of high dispersions this afternoon.

Elevated Fire Danger is likely Friday with critically low Min RH values over inland Southeast GA and portions of inland Northeast FL. As high pressure moves east of the area, southerly flow turns southeasterly behind the Atlantic seabreeze with the Gulf seabreeze shifting inland to highway 301 with southeast winds behind. An approaching front will create southwest flow Saturday over the area with the Atlantic seabreeze pinned near I-95. Transport winds a little higher and high mixing heights lead to high dispersions again Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers and T'storms on Saturday with bring a wetting rainfall across Southeast Georgia with lighter amounts near I-10. Lightning activity from T'storms could provide potential for lightning started wildfire activity.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Dense smoke will continue to persist across Clinch and Echols county due to the Pineland Rd wildfire through midday today between US highway 84 and state highway 94. A Dense Smoke advisory is in effect until noon for Clinch and Echols county. Threat for dense smoke may continue late this afternoon into tonight near and downwind of wildfires.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958

April 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 56 88 60 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 79 64 82 64 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 83 59 88 60 / 0 0 10 0 SGJ 79 61 84 62 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 85 57 89 58 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 85 58 87 60 / 0 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Dense Smoke Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ162-163. MARINE...None.