textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents NE FL Beaches Today. Moderate Risk at SE GA Beaches

- Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Currents lingers at NE FL beaches

- Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours

High pressure conditions will continue through today and tonight with calm weather and easterly-southeasterly winds becoming more mild and variable this evening. High level clouds associated with moisture aloft will be in place over the region today, becoming less widespread overnight with a potential for patchy to dense fog developments over inland areas during the early AM hours. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid to upper 80s for inland areas today and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 50s for inland areas and in the upper 50s and lower 60s for areas nearer to the shore.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Fog potential each morning, especially inland - Dry & warm weather to persist

High pressure ridging both near the surface and aloft continues across the region through the next several days, with a mainly southeasterly flow in place and dry conditions with ample subsidence in place. Fire risk will remain elevated with the dry conditions and very warm temperatures. The only other noteworthy weather impact will be patchy to areas of fog each morning, with patchy "superfog" possible near smoke from any ongoing wildfires. High temperatures will into the 80s to around 90 are expected inland, with cooler temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s closer to the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry weather persists overall with rising temperatures - Morning fog potential to continue each day

Stacked high pressure looks to persist through at least the end of the work week and into the start of the weekend, with the building high pressure/subsidence aloft helping temperatures continue to rise towards near record highs, especially inland. High pressure breaks down a bit this weekend and into early next week as a front approaches on Sunday and likely moves through the region around Sunday Night and Monday, though early indications in guidance are a mostly or all dry frontal passage at this time.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will be in place through the forecast period. Winds will maintain from out of the east this afternoon with sustained winds of about 10 to 15 mph with gusts of up to about 20-25 mph by around 14z-16z. Winds will become calm and variable during the evening and overnight hours, by around 00z-02z.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly over the next several days.

Rip Currents and Surf:

East swells and onshore flow will persist High Risk of rip currents at NE FL beaches today with surf/breakers 3-4 ft, but will lower to Moderate Risk at SE GA beaches with surf/breakers 2-3 ft. Likely will be able to lower to Moderate risk for all beaches from Tuesday through the remainder of the week as surf slowly subsides.

FIRE WEATHER

- MinRH values near or below 30 percent inland this week

Dry and warm conditions will persist through the next several days as high pressure remains in control. Flow will be mainly out of the southeast in the 10-15 mph range over northeast FL and 5-10 mph range across southeast GA during daytime hours, with the overall modest low level flow keeping dispersion values in the good to borderline high range. MinRH values in the upper 20s to low 30s of percent will be common inland through the next several days during peak mixing. Dry conditions and elevated fire danger overall look to continue through the rest of the week, with the next chance for any rain not expected until late this weekend, if at all.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Morning fog possible each day this week. Localized "superfog" possible each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001

April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 56 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 77 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 79 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 56 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 58 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.