textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms this Afternoon & Evening. Stronger Storm Hazards: Damaging Gusts of 40-60 mph & Localized Flooding

- Tropical Depression #2 Forms in the Eastern Gulf. Direct Local Impacts are Not Expected.

- Numerous Showers & Thunderstorms on Wednesday & Thursday. Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Flooding Rainfall Area-Wide

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Monday, Possible High Risk Tuesday

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights This afternoon and Tonight:

- A few strong/severe storms possible this afternoon/evening for inland NE FL and SE GA.

- Tropical Depression 2 has developed in the NE Gulf

Tropical Depression 2 has developed in the NE Gulf earlier this morning. TD 2 will slowly strengthen and meander NNW today into tonight rotating showers and storms northward up the FL peninsula into NE FL this afternoon into evening. Deeper tropical moisture (PWATs 1.8-2.1 in) advects in from the south allowing for scattered showers and storms to develop along the inland-moving sea breezes. A few strong to severe storms will be possible later this afternoon into evening as the outer rainbands from TD 2 interact with the sea breeze and outflow boundaries. The best chances for stronger activity will be focused mainly west of the I-95 corridor with the main threats being gusts 40-60 mph and localized flooding. Convection wanes later this evening with the loss of daytime heating. A few showers may rotate into the Suwannee Valley in the pre-dawn hours as TD 2 shifts NNW.

Afternoon highs will range from the low 90s along the coast and I-75 corridor to the mid 90s inland. With a moist airmass, peak heat indices will range from 100-107 F. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- No Significant Impacts from Tropical Depression Two - Bouts of Showers and Storms & Heavy Rainfall, Especially for Western Areas

Tropical Depression Two (TD2) will continue to slowly drift northwestward during Monday and Tuesday, with the main impacts expected being occasional bands of convection rotating towards the area at times, adding to the usual diurnal convection to an extent as it pulls away. Plentiful tropical moisture will result in heavy rainfall and localized minor flooding being the primary hazard with daily convection on both Monday and Tuesday, especially towards and west of I-75 approaching the Gulf coast where higher PoPs and coverage of showers/storms will be. The gradient between the system and high pressure ridging to our east will also enhance the southerly flow, with a general 10-20G25-30 wind forecast for both Monday and Tuesday, highest near the coast. High temps will generally run close to normal, though generally a few degrees closer further south and west where more cloud cover and higher rain coverage will be. Generally in the mid 90s north and east of I-75, and low 90s near and west of the same interstate.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms - Potential heat advisory conditions by the middle of next week

Ridging will briefly build back across the Florida peninsula on Wednesday as Tropical Depression 2 continues to move away from the region across the northern Gulf. This ridging looks to bring a rather temporary drier air intrusion into the region and therefore limiting PoPs before a frontal boundary approaches from the north Wednesday Night and stalls just north of the area Thursday. The Thursday - Saturday time frame therefore is expected to return higher moisture and therefore rain chances with it, especially across southeast GA closer to the diffuse boundary. Flow becoming more southwest to westerly during the long term will bring temperatures generally slightly above climo, possibly flirting with heat advisory criteria.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

MVFR conds still possible along with gusty winds from lingering TSRA at NE FL terminals through 01Z, then VFR conds with diminishing winds will return through the overnight hours, along with the usual patchy MVFR for chances at VQQ from 07-11Z time frame. Breezy S-SE winds develop again on Monday morning after 14Z time frame, with strongest SE winds behind the East Coast sea breeze at SSI/CRG/SGJ. TSRA chances increase late in the morning at GNV with PROB30 groups added from 16-22Z, then slightly later at NE FL coastal TAF sites from 18-24Z. SSI should remain VFR through the period, with much lower rainfall chances and only VCSH expected at most with gusty SE winds expected on Monday at 13G20 knots as well.

MARINE

Tropical Depression Two has developed in the northeastern Gulf today continuing breezy south-southeasterly winds through mid-week as it shifts to the northwest away from the region. Winds will reach Exercise Caution levels each afternoon into evening with winds potentially strengthening to Small Craft Advisory levels as high pressure to the east strengthens Monday into Tuesday. For the second half of the week, offshore flow will develop as a cold front approaches from the northwest and stalls just north of the waters later this weekend.

Rip Currents:

Breezy longshore flow will keep breakers around 2-3 feet and result in a solid Moderate Risk of rip currents this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes onshore. A period of stronger southerly winds is expected Monday and Tuesday which will elevate breakers to 3-5 feet. Right now, Monday the risk will be kept at Moderate. As surf builds Tuesday, risk will likely jump to the High Risk for rip currents.

FIRE WEATHER

Plenty of moisture as well as an uptick in southerly winds will be the primary impacts of newly formed Tropical Depression Two (TD2) over the northeastern Gulf. The system is expected to slowly drift northwestward over the next several days, with no significant impacts for our area. More tropical moisture will result in a higher potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding in any daytime showers or thunderstorms, especially towards and west of the I-75 corridor where these will be more numerous at times through Tuesday. Breezier flow will also result in good dispersions for the vast majority of the region, which will be borderline high in some spots through Wednesday. A cold front will approach the region and stall around Wednesday Night/Thursday, returning higher chances for rainfall after a slight lull on Wednesday.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not expected for the next several nights. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible in and near thunderstorms, with occasional outflow boundaries capable of producing sudden wind shifts well away from ongoing convection. As mentioned above, no significant impacts expected from TD2.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 95 74 93 / 30 50 20 30 SSI 80 91 81 92 / 10 20 10 20 JAX 76 95 77 94 / 20 40 10 30 SGJ 76 93 76 94 / 20 50 20 30 GNV 74 92 75 92 / 40 70 20 40 OCF 74 92 75 92 / 40 70 20 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.