textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Friday

- Daily chances for mainly afternoon thunderstorms will increase this week and Weekend.

- Locally Dense Fog Over Inland Southeast Georgia Thursday and Friday mornings.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at NE FL/SE GA beaches

- Locally dense fog possible inland late night/early morning hours

Sfc high pressure ridge is located from the Carolinas and eastward into the Atlantic with fairly weak easterly flow over the area. Located VWP shows 5-10 kt from sfc to 850 mb. A mid to upper level low was located about 275 miles east of JAX is forecast to lift northwest and north through Thursday morning as a narrow shortwave ridge builds into our forecast area from the west. PWATs remain fairly low at 1 to 1.4 inches or so, but low levels are relatively moist (mean mixing ratio 14g/kg on 12z JAX sounding) with vis imagery showing mainly scattered cumulus clouds. The subsidence inversion at 850 mb and lack of more instability will keep the POPs low today, mainly around 10-20 percent for showers and a t-storm for the inland northeast FL area into the evening hours. If any convective activity forms, it should dissipate by 10 pm.

Tonight, mostly clear to occasional partly cloudy with lows in the upper 60s inland to lower 70s coast, with winds slowly diminishing and become more southerly late. Still could be some patchy to areas of fog late tonight, supported by latest HREF guidance. Fog may be locally dense, mainly for inland southeast GA where decoupling looks best tonight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily thunderstorms each afternoon west of I-95.

Following a foggy morning, scattered showers and storms will develop in the afternoon and evening across inland locations, generally west of I-95. Inland high temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s, wheres coastal temperatures will stay a little cooler in the mid to upper 80s with the help of the Atlantic sea breeze. Precipitation chances increase further on Friday area-wide as southerly flow increases PWATs to 1.75-2.0" and allows the two sea breezes to push inland and interact in a more central location. Convection may linger a little after sunset near the I-75 corridor, but will soon dissipate. Temperatures will remain above normal Friday, with maximum afternoon heat indices approaching the upper 90s for inland northeast FL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

- Hot temperatures continue through the weekend

- Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week.

PWATs continue to increase with southerly flow this weekend, increasing precipitation chances area-wide Saturday and Sunday, but especially over inland southeast GA Saturday. Isolated to scattered storm chances continue into midweek for inland areas, primarily in the afternoons and evenings. Hot temperatures will persist during this period, inland highs in the low 90s, and east coast highs in the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Scattered to broken cumulus clouds inland areas rest of today which should be mainly confined from JAX to VQQ westward, while coastal TAFs see more clearing behind the sea breeze. Have held off on any VCSH or VCTS based on latest satellite imagery, with thunder chances currently quite low to support a VCTS. Late tonight, a chance of fog and/or stratus at IFR for VQQ and possibly MVFR vsby for GNV. Best fog/stratus chances will occur at VQQ.

Rest of the aftn, an easterly wind about 8-12 kt with a few higher gusts expected through 01z or so. Wind will weaken tonight and become near calm inland. East to southeast winds increase by 14-16Z Thursday at about 5-10 kt.

MARINE

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast this week and through the weekend. Mainly southeast flow will continue through the period with a daily sea breeze near the Atlantic Coast. Winds may meet small craft exercise caution criteria in the late afternoon and evening from Friday through Monday.

Rip Currents:

Moderate risk of rip current continues today and likely to stay that way into Friday with surf of about 2-3 ft. Latest buoy readings show east southeast periods of 8-10 seconds of about 2 to 2.5 ft and with less of wind wave action as winds overall have decreased from what they were a couple of days ago. Longshore current should be directed northward. There may be a bump up in the surf going into the holiday weekend that may necessitate High Risk. Surf averaging around 3 feet to possible 4 ft, mainly for northeast FL this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon through the weekend. Persistent onshore flow will allow moisture to continue filtering into the area, leading to MinRH values remaining above critical levels. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. Patchy fog Thursday morning for inland locations, with locally dense fog possible inland southeast GA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 66 91 68 91 / 10 20 10 40 SSI 72 86 77 87 / 10 0 0 10 JAX 68 92 73 92 / 0 20 10 30 SGJ 70 90 75 90 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 68 94 72 95 / 20 20 20 30 OCF 69 92 73 93 / 30 30 20 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.