textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Daily Afternoon Thunderstorms, Numerous Showers and Storms across SE GA Monday and Tuesday. Localized Flooding Possible.

- Seasonably Hot Conditions Expected Throughout the Upcoming Week. Heat & Humidity Returns Late this Week and into Next Weekend

UPDATE...through Tonight

Residual stratiform trailing southwestward across the area will diminish through around 10 pm. There will be partly to mostly cloudy skies through the night which should mitigate fog development. However, a few areas in coastal southeast GA and across Marion County that received heavy rain today could still see shallow ground fog development due to the saturated ground conditions. Otherwise, rain-cooled temperatures will keep conditions mild through the twilight hours and through the late evening. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s near beaches due to the warm coastal water influence.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During This Period:

-Increased storm potential this period, with greatest chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall north oF I10

The region will be between a high pressure ridge to the south, and a frontal boundary stalled just to the north this period.

The west southwest flow between these features will largely keep the east coast sea breeze from moving inland. Due to the proximity of the frontal boundary, precipitation chances will be greater than average, especially over SE GA.

Temperatures will be above average this period, but as high as recent days, due to forecast cloud and precipitation coverage.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights During This Period:

- Reduced chances for storms

High pressure ridge will extend across southern FL this period, with a weakening frontal zone just to the north. This pattern will keep a westerly flow going throughout the period, with the east coast sea breeze pinned near the coast. Daily convective chances will continue this period, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. With the frontal zone weakening, chances will not be as high as earlier this week.

Temperatures will be above average this period, with highs in the mid 90s common.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Convection is winding down across most of the area. Residual light stratiform rain trailing to the southeast continues through around 02z before fading. VFR cloud cover will continue overnight with light southwesterly flow, which should localize ground fog development at airfields where heavier rain accumulated this afternoon and winds trend calm during the predawn hours. Monday will be similar to today with convective initiation beginning a couple of hours earlier than today. Showers at KGNV may begin as early as 13z and then shift toward the I-95 corridor by 15z. Tempo groups may be warranted but due to uncertainty in timing of TSRA Monday, which is likely to be on the early side, elected to introduce Prob30 groups for convection generally between 16z-23z.

MARINE

A frontal boundary will sink southward towards the Georgia waters tonight into Monday, with this feature stalling over the Georgia waters on Tuesday before weakening later this week. Showers and thunderstorms will impact our local waters earlier during the afternoon hours on Monday and Tuesday, with a few strong storms possible, especially for the waters north of St. Augustine. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease by Wednesday and especially on Thursday and Friday as the frontal boundary dissipates, with only isolated to widely scattered late afternoon and early evening activity possible for the near shore waters as a prevailing westerly flow continues during the overnight and morning hours each day.

Rip Currents:

Low to Moderate risk of rip currents will continue into early this week as offshore flow becomes SE/onshore during the afternoon/early evening hours with surf generally 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

The region will be between high pressure to the south and a gradually weakening frontal zone to the north this week. While daily thunderstorm chances are forecast, above average chances can be expected early in the week. Temperatures will be above average, with a trend upward later in the week.

Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 89 72 88 / 40 70 50 70 SSI 77 92 75 91 / 50 80 50 70 JAX 75 93 73 92 / 40 80 40 70 SGJ 75 93 75 93 / 40 80 20 60 GNV 74 91 72 91 / 30 60 50 50 OCF 74 91 74 92 / 40 80 40 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.