textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Thunderstorm Outlook Today through Saturday. Isolated Strong Storms Possible this Afternoon & Friday. Isolated Severe Storms possible Saturday. Storm Hazards: Gusty Winds, Heavy Rain. Low (< 2%) tornado risk Saturday.

- Beneficial Rainfall Through the Weekend. Rainfall Totals of 0.5-1.5 inches, Local High End 4 inches. Highest Rainfall Totals Likely Inland SE GA

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Today Through Saturday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Isolated Strong/Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Evening

This afternoon: Numerous breaks in the cloud cover ahead of approaching frontal boundary will continue to push temps well into the 80s, with even a few 90F readings possible across NE FL in the breezy West to Southwest flow around 15 mph with a few gusts to 25- 30 mph at times. This heating will provide enough sfc based CAPE to generate scattered to numerous showers and widely scattered storms area-wide through the afternoon and evening hours. Decent mid level jet aloft will also enable a few strong to possible severe storms with hail and gusty winds of 40-55 mph as they move rapidly off towards the east and into the Atlantic waters after sunset.

Tonight: The frontal boundary will sag southward into NE FL after midnight and stall close to the I-10 corridor by morning. Following any evening convection, rainfall chances will remain on the lower side as some energy aloft lifts across SE GA through the overnight hours with widely scattered showers and a remote chance of a storm. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 60s across SE GA behind the frontal boundary, while milder lows in the mid/upper 60s are expected across NE FL. Winds will diminish to near calm towards morning and patchy fog is possible over all inland areas, but expected abundant mid/high clouds should prevent significant dense fog potential.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Unsettled weather brings beneficial rain - Isolated strong/severe storms possible Friday and Saturday

Friday, showers will be present over southeast Georgia in the early morning, with coverage spreading southward through the day. Overall, most activity will be showers but enough CAPE will be available for a few thunderstorms. Highest chances for any isolated strong thunderstorms will be generally over inland northeast Florida in the afternoon/evening when the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes interact. Decent range in high temperatures Friday due to the front, with northern inland Georgia seeing highs in the mid 70s, and north central FL reaching the low 90s.

A stronger frontal system will move through the area Saturday, sparking up convection near sunrise over inland southeast Georgia, with activity moving southeasterly throughout the day into northeast Florida. Showers and storms will taper off over southeast Georgia Saturday evening, with convection south of the area entirely by Sunday morning. Strong to isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday, generally in the morning for southeast Georgia and afternoon/evening for northeast Florida. Most of the area is currently in a 'Marginal' risk (level 1/5) for severe storm potential, with damaging winds as the primary hazard. However, there will be enough shear to promote a low tornado risk as well. For Saturday, an even larger range in highs forecast, mid 60s for Jeff Davis county, and low 90s for Marion/Putnam/St. Johns counties.

As far as our much needed rainfall, there is a high chance of areas along and north of I-10 receiving at least 1 inch of rain through Sunday morning. For the same area, a medium chance of 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts within heavy thunderstorm developments near 3-4 inches.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier, Cooler Weather Sunday and Monday

Cooler and drier conditions expected on Sunday following the cold frontal passage, high temperatures will remain in the 70s area-wide as skies clear up and northeasterly winds develop. A gradual warm up will occur each day Monday through Wednesday, and by Wednesday high temperatures will reach the low 90s over most inland locations as winds shift southwesterly. An afternoon Atlantic sea breeze will keep temperatures on the immediate east coast in the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR conds for the most part are expected this afternoon with near breezy W-SW winds at 10-13 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots at times. Surface heating has already triggered convection across NE FL and most NE FL TAF sites will need to keep at least a PROB30 group for TSRA activity in the 18-00Z time frame for potential gusty winds to 30 knots and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. At this time it appears as though convection will remain south of SSI and will just keep VCSH with this forecast package. After sunset, convection ends and mainly just VFR mid/high clouds are expected the rest of the period along with light winds. The exception will be at SSI where the winds will become NE behind the frontal boundary and lower IFR CIGS are expected to develop in the 06-12Z time frame. Elsewhere across NE FL the near calm winds and some low level moisture along the stalled frontal boundary may lead to some patchy MVFR fog potential around sunrise, but mainly at GNV/VQQ in the 08-13Z time frame. The low clouds will linger at SSI with IFR/MVFR CIGS through the Friday morning 12-18Z time frame, while some lower MVFR CIGS will start to develop at the NE FL TAF sites in the 14-18Z time frame.

MARINE

A cold front will move into southeast Georgia this afternoon and then into northeast Florida late tonight. This front will then stall across the northeast Florida waters Friday then begin to lift north as a warm front Friday night. This front will be accompanied by scattered showers and a few thunderstorms at times through Friday night. A wave of low pressure will then develop over the Gulf by late Friday night or Saturday, with widespread showers and a few strong to severe thunderstorms overspreading the local waters on Saturday, with activity expected to continue into Saturday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop on Saturday as southwest winds increase. The front will shift south of the northeast Florida waters on Saturday night, resulting in winds shifting to northerly. Breezy northeast winds are then expected on Sunday as high pressure builds into the southeastern states, with diminishing winds and seas early next week as the high pressure builds over the local waters.

Rip Currents:

Moderate risk of rip currents with surf/breakers around 2 feet will continue today and Friday. Stronger offshore flow on Saturday will keep rip current risk low to moderate, before a stronger N-NE flow develops Saturday Night and a high risk and rough surf is expected on Sunday in the wake of departing low pressure system and strong onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Daytime Dispersions Saturday

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Into This Weekend

Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected area-wide today and Friday as a cold front moves into the area. Breezy southwesterly surface and transport winds will continue across north central Florida on Friday, where high daytime dispersions are expected. Surface and transport winds elsewhere will shift to northeasterly, with poor to fair values for locations north of I-10. A stronger cold front then moves through Saturday into Sunday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday and Saturday night. Strong southwesterly surface and transport winds ahead of the front will result in very high dispersions on Saturday across northeast Florida. MinRH will drop into the upper 20-30s Sunday and Monday for most inland areas following the frontal passage as winds shift northeasterly.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated strong/severe storms possible Friday and Saturday. Smoke from nearby fires may result in localized visibility reductions, especially during the overnight and early morning hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 75 58 69 / 30 50 60 90 SSI 67 76 64 76 / 40 60 40 90 JAX 66 82 65 81 / 30 50 30 80 SGJ 67 83 66 87 / 30 40 20 70 GNV 65 88 65 85 / 20 40 10 70 OCF 67 88 66 87 / 10 30 10 70

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.