textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at the Northeast FL Beaches. Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches Today. High Risk Possible at All Area Beaches from Friday through the Weekend

- Isolated Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms Possible through Friday

- Areas of Locally Dense Morning Fog Inland Friday through Sunday

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sun Afternoon through Monday

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Thursday Night:

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches Today

- Isolated Afternoon and Early Evening Thunderstorms Possible for North Central and Portions of Coastal Northeast FL

- Patchy Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight for Inland Locations Along and North of Interstate 10

Showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms will move across north central Florida this afternoon and early evening as southeasterly steering flow increases moisture. With onshore winds, a couple light showers may move over coastal areas as well later this evening, but chances are relatively low. The breezy easterly winds will keep coastal high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, while inland locations will see highs in the lower to mid 80s with partly cloudy skies.

Moisture will continue to increase overnight as winds calm, so patchy fog will likely develop along and north of I-10 again tonight through Friday morning with a slight increase in cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated thunderstorms possible on Friday afternoon

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will develop with diurnal afternoon heating on Friday as high pressure over the Atlantic maintains a southeasterly flow over the region and a weak short-lived coastal trough forms and gradually presses inland. Slightly drier air will advect in from out of the south on Saturday resulting in more inhibited chances for precipitation. Above average temperatures will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend with daily high temps rising into the mid to upper 80s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to lower 60s. Patchy to areas of locally dense inland fog will be possible each morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm potential Sunday into Early Next Week. The greatest potential for stronger storms will be on Sunday afternoon and evening.

-Near Record Highs Possible Sunday

Showers with embedded thunderstorms will develop over the forecast area by Sunday afternoon and continue on into Monday as a cold front presses into the region from out of the northwest, slowing as it progresses into northeast Florida overnight into early Monday. A stronger upper level shortwave will cross over the southeast US and shift the front further southward on Tuesday. Rounds of showers developing along the lingering boundary will hopefully bring some much needed rain to the area. Strong high pressure then builds following the front and will wedge down the southeastern seaboard Tuesday into Thursday, likely resulting in a surge of strong northeasterly winds. Above average temperatures on Sunday will drop to be near and below the seasonal average for the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the evening with southeasterly winds increasing this afternoon until sunset. Tonight, another round of fog will likely impact at least VQQ and GNV.

MARINE

Small Craft Exercise Caution level seas are expected to develop over the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida this afternoon as a trough moves westward, increasing wind speeds slightly and generating scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms through Friday. Elevated seas will persist across the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida through Friday night. A cold front will enter the southeastern states late this weekend, likely crossing our local waters on Monday morning, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Strong high pressure building north of the area will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard during the early to middle portions of next week, likely create a surge of strong northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters, with Small Craft Advisory conditions becoming increasingly likely for much of the week.

Rip Currents:

Breakers of 2-4 feet will combine with a persistent easterly ocean swell to create a high risk of rip currents today at the northeast FL beaches. Breakers closer to 2 feet at the southeast GA beaches will yield a higher end moderate risk today. Breakers will build to the 3-5 foot range at the northeast FL beaches from Friday through the weekend, while surf heights at the southeast GA beaches will build slightly to the 2-4 foot range. These breakers will continue to combine with an east-southeasterly ocean swell to create a high rip current risk that will include all area beaches beginning on Friday. Stronger northeasterly winds developing early next week will keep the risk high for an extended period of time.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Today And Saturday

High pressure over the Atlantic will continue east-southeasterly winds over the area through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon to evening hours mainly over inland areas as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. Elevated mixing heights inland will result in generally good dispersions with areas of high dispersions each afternoon into the weekend. Slightly drier air on Saturday will keep rain chances low. Beneficial rain returns Sunday into early next week as a cold front moves through the region.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog potential each morning this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 84 62 84 62 / 0 0 40 10 SSI 76 65 76 65 / 0 10 30 10 JAX 83 64 83 62 / 0 10 40 0 SGJ 79 65 80 65 / 20 20 30 10 GNV 87 64 87 61 / 20 20 30 10 OCF 87 64 87 63 / 30 20 40 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.