textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Overnight Freezes Continue through Wednesday Morning. Freeze Warning Early this Morning for Southeast GA and Inland Portions of Northeast and North Central FL. Freeze Watch Late Tonight through Early Wednesday Morning for Inland Southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and Portions of Inland Northeast FL.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Northeast FL Beaches through at Least Wednesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Overnight surface analysis depicts Arctic high pressure (1034 millibars) positioned over the Ozarks, Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Aloft...broad troughing remains situated over the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with shortwave energy pivoting eastward from the eastern Great Lakes towards New England. Surface ridging building towards our region is keeping our local pressure gradient slightly tighter tonight, creating a light northwesterly breeze in place, mainly for locations along the I-95 corridor. Winds at inland locations have mostly decoupled, where temperatures at 06Z were near freezing, while coastal temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Dewpoints generally ranged from 25-30 degrees throughout our area.

Arctic high pressure will continue to build into the southeastern states this morning, tightening our local pressure gradient and resulting in northerly winds becoming breezy during the mid to late morning hours. Otherwise, broad troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the nation will flatten out, with fast zonal flow developing over the Deep South at the base of this lifting trough. This fast flow aloft will begin to advect some thin cirrus cloud cover into our region towards sunrise today, with high altitude cloud cover beginning to thicken later today and tonight. Following a widespread light freeze for all inland locations along and west of I-95 early this morning, rising heights aloft will allow highs to rebound slightly today despite breezy northerly winds, with highs generally climbing to the mid and upper 60s, except lower 60s for portions of north central FL.

Arctic high pressure will then pivot eastward across the southern Appalachians this evening, becoming centered near the Delmarva peninsula towards sunrise on Wednesday. This evolution of the weather pattern will allow low level winds to veer to northeasterly tonight, keeping coastal lows mostly in the 40s. Although high altitude cloud cover will continue to gradually thicken, decoupling winds at inland locations and a very air mass will result in one more night of subfreezing temperatures for locations west of I-95 in southeast GA and for inland locations along and north of the I-10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and northeast FL (west of downtown Jacksonville). A light freeze and widespread frost is anticipated for these locations during the overnight and early morning hours on Wednesday. The existing Freeze Watch was expanded slightly to include most of the Suwannee Valley.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Increased cloud cover and chances for showers going into Thursday as high pressure shifts off to the northeast and prevailing flow shifts about to become more out of the southwest, with surface winds shifting to become more onshore by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will rise to be above average during this period with daily high temps rising into the 60s over southeast Georgia and into the lower 70s for northeast Florida by Thursday. Overnight low temperatures will similarly warm with min temps rising into the mid 40s over southeast Georgia and in the upper 40s and lower 50s over northeast Florida.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Showers are expected to build in over the forecast area on Saturday and through the end of the weekend as a cold front presses down into the region from out of the north with showers extending through the majority of the forecast area with the most abundant rainfall occurring over southeast Georgia. Initially above average temperatures on Friday are expected to drop down to be below average levels by the end of the weekend as cold air following the frontal passage settles in over the forecast area.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. High altitude cloud cover will gradually increase after 10Z. Northwesterly surface winds sustained around 5 knots overnight will shift to northerly, increasing to 10-15 knots towards 15Z. North- northeasterly surface winds will then diminish to around 5 knots before 00Z Wednesday.

MARINE

Arctic high pressure building into the southeastern states on Tuesday morning will shift across the southern Appalachians by Tuesday evening, moving offshore of the Delmarva peninsula by Wednesday morning. This feature will provide breezy northerly winds and elevated seas to our local waters today, with winds shifting to northeasterly tonight. Northeasterly winds will then gradually weaken on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure extends its axis across the southeastern states. A few showers will be possible late this week ahead of a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states on Friday. Chances for showers will then increase this weekend as this frontal boundary moves slowly southward across our local waters, providing for strengthening northeasterly winds on Saturday that will shift to northwesterly on Saturday night as this front shifts south of the northeast Florida waters.

Rip Currents: Southeast GA Beaches: Low through Wednesday Northeast FL Beaches: Moderate through Wednesday

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Daytime Dispersions Over Inland Southeast GA On Wednesday

Dry and seasonably cool weather will continue through today with northerly winds shifting to become more out of the northeast overnight and into Wednesday morning. MinRH values will range within the 20s and 30s today with freezing conditions in the early morning hours today and returning for inland areas overnight and into Wednesday morning, primarily over southeast Georgia. A slight increase in moisture across the area for Wednesday as winds shift to become more northeasterly. Areas of low daytime dispersion are forecast for inland southeast GA on Wednesday from around Waycross northwestward. Potential for low daytime dispersions to continue through the end of the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Freezing conditions will continue early this morning, with another inland freeze expected overnight into early Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 55 29 61 42 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 56 39 61 49 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 58 34 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 58 45 67 53 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 60 36 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 61 38 71 51 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-232-236-237- 240-322-340-422-425-522-533-633. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-035-120-220-322-422-522. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None.