textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Remains in Effect through Friday. Rip Currents Risk Remains Moderate to High This Weekend

- Drier This Week, Increased TStorm Chances Next Week

- Warming Trend Through The Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Onshore Winds Continue Today - High Risk for Rip Currents At Area Beaches

Dry and breezy conditions continue today, though the local pressure gradient begins to relax as high pressure shifts into the Carolinas/ northern Georgia by Friday morning. It's a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s. Drier airmass remains over the area with PWATs in the 0.7 to 1 inch range. Winds subside tonight especially across inland areas. Calm winds and clear skies could develop some patchy fog for portions along US 301 early Friday morning where there is relatively better moisture. Radiational cooling will allow temperatures to dip to near record low in the mid 50s to low 60s inland and mid 60s to low 70s closer to the coast and St. Johns River Basin.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rough Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents Friday, with high risk possible Saturday. - Mostly dry conditions

Predominantly easterly flow continues through the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure remains situated along the eastern sea board on Friday. The high pressure begins to shift eastward on Friday night, leading to winds to begin to shift to southeasterly- southerly by Saturday evening. Dry airmass persists over the area, limiting chances of any precipitation during the forecast period. As the afternoon sea breeze begins to push inland, winds of around 10- 15 mph and gusts of 20 mph will be likely along the east coast.

Temperatures will warm through Friday into Saturday. Daily highs rise from into the upper 80s, with some spots possibly in the lower 90s, for inland locations on Friday. By Saturday, inland daily highs will be in the lower 90s. Coastal max temps still stay about mid 80s both days. Overnight low temperatures again be fairly cool Friday night in the lower to mid 60s inland and about lower 70s coast. These temps will be a few degrees warmer by Saturday night. With calmer winds during overnight hours and some low-level moisture, there could be some very patchy fog Friday nights over inland locations.

The main story will be the rough surf and life-threatening rip currents at all beaches, though the surf heights will be on a lowering trend overall.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- At Least Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Sunday and Monday.

- Dry Weather Likely to Continue Sunday, with increasing chance of rain Monday through Wednesday.

As the high pressure along the eastern seaboard continues an eastward shift, a trailing cold front looks to push along the east coast as a backdoor cold front. With the cold front expected to begin to push south of the local area and increasing moisture at the start of the upcoming week, there are chances of some rain on Monday and Tuesday, with highest chances on Tuesday near 30-50 percent. Breezy northeast winds may begin on Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. The front looks to slip just south of the forecast area on Wednesday with a chance of showers and possible a thunderstorm. Some chance for locally heavy rainfall around midweek with weak signal shown from NBM 70th and 90th percentile guidance.

Temperatures will continue to be warm on Sunday and Monday, with max temps rising into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s coast. With the front's influence on Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be nudged downward a few degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s generally, with some mid 70s possible at the coast after the frontal passage due to onshore flow.

Marine influences will continue to produce elevated rip current risk Sunday and Monday. Onshore flow may enhance risk further Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period. Breezy NE winds continue through 01Z with sustained winds in the 10- 15 kt range with gusts around 20 kts. Highest winds will be at JAX, CRG and SGJ. Winds subside rather significantly by 01Z with inland sites going calm after 06Z. Patchy fog may develop near VQQ in the pre-dawn hours. East winds 5-10 kts develop after 14Z.

MARINE

Elevated seas and breezy northeasterly winds will trend downward through Tonight, with Small Craft exercise caution conditions confined to offshore waters. High pressure then shifts off the southeastern seaboard Friday into the weekend. Lighter onshore flow then persists Friday into the weekend.

Rip Currents: High Risk will continue across area beaches today as onshore flow persists, in addition to surf heights in the 4-5 foot range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas To Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Through Friday

Elevated transport winds from the east continue through the end of the week. This will allow for areas of high daytime dispersion values, especially across inland locations. With dry air stationed over the area, RHs values are expected to remain above critical levels during the end of the week and through the weekend. Moisture begins to trickle back into the area at the start of the upcoming week, allowing for RH values to increase into midweek.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread fog development is not anticipated over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 58 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 70 84 74 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 61 87 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 69 85 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 62 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 62 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.