textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Foggy Mornings Through the End of the Week. Wednesday: Potentially Areas of, or Widespread, Dense Fog south of US-82 and Most Probable for NE FL (40-60%)

- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Be very cautious with outdoor flames check for local burning bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley

UPDATE

Issued at 719 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Very patchy fog inland this morning will linger through the next hour or so before dissipating, with an overall mostly sunny and pleasant day with mild high temps in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s.

NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)

Calm conditions exist behind yesterday morning's frontal passage. Not a significantly dry airmass and there is enough near-ground moisture in place to allow patchy to areas of fog to develop, mainly across NE FL this morning. Some patches may become dense at times, especially around sunrise. Fog that forms should lift quickly this morning.

Surface ridging moving off the Mid Atlantic coast today will direct flow onshore today. Within that onshore flow, a weak inverted trough will develop and potentially provide enough convergence to trigger a few showers, which should stay offshore and over the waters for the most part with only stratocumulus being pushed inland.

Tonight, a bit of moistening under the influence of another area of high pressure consolidating over the northern Gulf coast. The combination of the moistening and calm conditions will lead to another potential fog event Wednesday morning with a broadened concern area for dense fog development. Dirty ridging moving in from the west will stream cirrus in overhead which may limit fog extent.

Comfortable temperatures today after a cool start in mid 40s to low 50s this morning, inland temperatures will rise to the low 80s (only a few degrees off from daily records - see CLIMATE section for details). At the coast the onshore flow will lead to cooler conditions with highs in the mid/upper 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night)

Dry weather conditions will continue after midweek as high pressure over the forecast area shifts further towards the east and allowing for more humid air to settle in over the region. Potential for overnight and early morning fog developments through Thursday. Daily high temperatures may potentially challenge record high levels for the period as max temps rise in the lower to mid 80s. Overnight low temperatures will range between the lower to mid 50s for inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coastline.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday)

Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to build across inland southeast Georgia and into northeast Florida along and north of the I-10 corridor on Saturday as high pressure ridging over the region moves off to the southeast into the Atlantic and instability ahead of an advancing cold front. Dry weather conditions will return by the end of the weekend and into next week as dry air following the frontal passage settles in over the forecast area. Temperatures will experience a slight cooling trend going into the weekend and into next week, however temps are expected to remain above the seasonal average throughout the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 719 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Very patchy MVFR fog could briefly affect inland areas through about 13-14Z, but otherwise no significant operational concerns expected through this evening. Some scattered Cu will stream towards this coast most of today, though not expecting any ceiling restrictions at this time. Fog potential is expected to be higher early Wednesday Morning, and will iron out more details as we get closer.

MARINE

There will be a weak and brief coastal trough over the waters which may lead to isolated showers off the northeast Florida coast through the afternoon and evening before lifting away to the northeast. Otherwise, high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the end of the week resulting in light winds and low seas across the local waters. Over the weekend winds turn offshore and become breezy as a cold front approaches and passes Sunday night. High pressure building in behind the front will move offshore to the northeast early next week setting up onshore flow and development of a coastal trough.

RIP CURRENTS: A low-end Moderate risk is expected today due to onshore flow. A Low Risk is anticipated Wednesday through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air over the forecast area will result in MinRH values in the lower 30s over inland southeast Georgia today, however low wind speeds today will keep conditions from reaching elevated fire danger levels. The mild and variable winds through today will result in lower mixing heights and poor daytime dispersion values. MinRH values will gradually rise as the week progresses, however, poor/fair dispersions and dry weather will persist through Friday.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

WED 11/19 THU 11/20 FRI 11/21 SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1958 86/1988 84/1991 84/1973 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 82/1984 86/1988 82/2004 81/1997 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 90/1906 88/1906 86/1973 86/1906 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 82/1942 83/1942 83/2011 83/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 77 50 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 73 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 79 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 78 58 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 82 54 85 53 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 82 55 83 53 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.