textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy Fog South of SR 20 in NE FL This Morning & Saturday

- Extreme Drought Expanding Across our Region. High Wildfire Danger Throughout the Region

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Sunday through Monday. Few Strong TStorms & Windy Conditions on Sunday & Sunday Night. Localized Heavy Downpours, Especially Along & North of I-10

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Stationary boundary remains just south of the region this morning, with ridging associated with high pressure to our north remaining the driving feature for the vast majority of the region for today and tonight. Some patchy fog will be possible through about 8 AM over far southern areas closer to the stalled frontal boundary, but otherwise mainly clear over southeast GA and clear to partly cloudy across northeast FL with min temps generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s inland and mid to upper 40s for the coast and St. Johns River Basin.

Today will be a very similar day to Thursday overall thanks to a very similar synoptic and mesoscale setup across the region, with fair conditions and more sunshine than clouds. Flow will remain onshore and strongest near the coast and St. Johns River Basin where temps will be mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Temps will climb into the low to mid 70s once again over inland northeast FL and the upper Suwannee Valley region.

Surface high pressure starts to drift southeastward and towards/off the Carolinas tonight and into Sunday Morning, which will keep winds just a bit stronger overnight, especially in the "usual" breezier locations closer to major bodies of water. Expecting lows overall a couple degrees milder for Saturday Morning, ranging from near 40 over inland GA, low to mid 40s over inland FL, and upper 40s to around 50 at the coast/St. Johns River. Some patchy to areas of fog will once again be expected over portions of inland NE FL early Friday Morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

A mid level ridge will build into the area on Saturday while a potent shortwave trough moves into the central Plains to nrn Mexico. Sfc low development expected over the OK to TX area along a cold frontal boundary shifting east through TX and OK. Locally, filtered sunshine under some mid to high clouds and sfc high pressure will move off the Carolina coast while low level winds slowly veer from east to southeast ahead of the approaching system. Weak sfc trough possible offshore but not expecting much of the way of local affects with a few showers possible over the area waters. This general pattern should continue into Saturday night, but with potential for some patchy fog inland late Sat night. Can't rule out some isolated sprinkles over land zones given the warm advection regime starting up ahead of the approaching cold front, but POPs are generally less than 15 percent for now. Highs expected well into the 70s inland and mid 60s to lower 70s coast due to easterly flow. Lows Sat night will be more mild as winds turn southeasterly, with widespread lows in the 50s expected.

On Sunday, the forecast area gets into the warm sector, as a weak warm front lifts up over the area, but hard to discern this boundary from current model guidance. As the cold front marches eastward from the western Gulf coast to the western FL panhandle Sunday afternoon. Warm and breezy day on tap with highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s further south, with a record high possible in northeast FL. Gusts of 30-35 mph are likely and bumped up wind gusts from NBM guidance, and noting the NBM 75th percentile are around 40 mph in some locations so a wind advisory may be needed. Precip chances will increase from west to east, with likely chances for inland southeast GA by the afternoon. Main rain chances will come by Sunday night as a swath of deeper moisture moves in ahead of the front with categorical rain chances upwards of 80+ percent. The thunder potential remains but instability continues to remain weak fortunately but bulk shear values remains robust at 40-50 kt, so we can't rule some organized convection Sunday night. Thunder probability are about 20-30 percent from late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Best instability continues to be over far southeast GA to inland northeast FL, or basically influenced by Gulf moisture on the southwest flow ahead of the front with MUCAPE of about 300-450 J/kg. Min temps only fall into the 50s Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The potent mid to level shortwave trough will be pushing just east of the area Monday morning, with the cold front extending southward from a low pressure system just off the southeast U.S. coast. Some post-frontal troughing from southwest to northeast over northeast FL and showery precip is expected to continue Monday. We kept a low mention of t-storms over northeast FL mainly for the morning hours, with lapse rates likely to be a bit steep, thereby supporting some instability. Precip chances should diminish Monday aftn to evening. Overall rainfall amounts with this event from Sunday to Monday may be about 1-1.5 inches total. The front should make it well south of the area by midday Monday. Cloudy skies will give way to clearing from north to south Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday, with sfc high pressure building from the north. Breezy northeast winds Tuesday will keep the coast cooler with highs in the 60s while inland is the 70s for highs.

Surface high pressure will further build into the area Wednesday into Thursday with a much drier airmass and dry conditions once again. The ridge drops south of the area by later in the week. This should result in a warming trend with highs Wednesday and Thursday above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overall, lows will be above average during the long term.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Some brief vsby restrictions around VQQ and CRG early this morning. Otherwise, prevailing VFR expected through later tonight. Around and after 06z Saturday, there is potential (up to 20-25 percent based on HREF) for MVFR or IFR cig/vsby at GNV and VQQ so may be trending that way in the latest TAFs, but confidence is low. Sfc winds become northeast 8-12 kt coastal TAFs and only 5-10 kt inland. Winds should relax to less than 10 kt after 01z tonight.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will persist along the southeastern seaboard through tonight as a frontal boundary remains stalled just south of the area. A northeast to easterly onshore flow will persist through Saturday with the position of high pressure ridging. High pressure then moves east of the region Saturday Night and Sunday as a frontal system approaches the area Sunday Night, moving across area waters through Monday. Showers as well as isolated thunderstorms will be expected Sunday Night through Monday as the system moves through. High pressure ridging will then build back down the southeastern coast on Tuesday before weakening by mid week.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for all beaches with a persistent onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER

CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS - Afternoon MARGINALLY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY - For North Central Florida

Long durations of critically low relative humidity values are forecast this afternoon for inland portions of southeast Georgia and for portions of the Suwannee Valley. Otherwise, surface and transport winds will become breezy at times from the northeast this afternoon mainly along the Interstate 95 corridor. Surface and transport winds will shift to easterly by Saturday, with breezy conditions developing during the afternoon hours. These breezy winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create good daytime dispersion values, with marginally high values possible on Saturday afternoon across north central Florida.

Increasing cloud cover is expected Sunday ahead of cold front, with chances for showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. This activity will then overspread the rest of our area Sunday night, possibly continuing into Monday morning. Strong transport winds, breezy surface speeds, and elevated mixing heights will create high daytime dispersion values on Sunday throughout northeast and north central Florida, with marginally high values possible for southeast Georgia before beneficial rainfall overspreads the region. Rainfall amounts of up to 1-2 inches forecast from Sunday through Monday, with locally higher totals possible.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days. Localized visibility reductions are possible during the predawn and early morning hours for locations near active or ongoing wildfires or prescribed burns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 69 38 72 52 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 60 48 65 53 / 0 0 0 20 JAX 70 45 74 55 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 67 50 72 57 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 76 46 79 57 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 77 47 79 57 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.