textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated TStorms rest of this evening. Isolated Strong Storms with Wind Gusts of 35-40 mph inland.

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Monday.

- Isolated to Scattered Afternoon and Evening TStorms Mon - Sat

- Heat and Humidity Builds this Week. Heat Advisories Possible Each Day from Tuesday through Friday

UPDATE

Inland showers and thunderstorms are still ongoing inland mainly south of Waycross with some stronger storms capable of having to gusts to 35 mph. There are also pockets of light stratiform showers across the First Coast and Camden County. An incremental downward of activity will continue this evening after sunset to near nil around 10 pm. Near calm winds inland with light south winds 5-10 mph. Temperatures will fall to the balmy mid to upper 70s and around 80 along the SE GA coast. Lower precipitation chances will be present to start off the work week as mid-level ridging suppresses convection. Monday, rain/storm chances will be at about 20-40% for northeast Florida and the Georgia coast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms

- Increasing Heat Index Values near Heat Advisory levels each day Lower precipitation chances will be present to start off the work week as mid-level ridging suppresses convection. Monday, rain/storm chances will be at about 20-40% for northeast Florida and the Georgia coast. Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms are forecast Tuesday across most of southeast Georgia, and closer to the northeast Florida coast. With less cloud cover and storm coverage, highs will be above normal, climbing into the lower to upper 90s. Max afternoon apparent temperatures will range from 100- 108 degrees, a Heat Advisory may be needed for some locations either or both days. Can't rule out some early morning patchy fog, especially over areas that receive a lot of rainfall.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated to Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorm Coverage

- Heat Advisory Potential Each Day

Storm chances remain lower than normal through the end of the week with precipitation chances generally maxing out around 40% each afternoon. Wednesday, convection will be limited to along and north of I-10 as well as down the northeast Florida coast. Isolated showers and storms expected inland Thursday, with slightly higher chances closer to the east coast. Precip chances increase Friday and Saturday area-wide but still peak in the 40-50% range.

Westerly surface winds will allow for hot temperatures each day, even at the immediate east coast beaches as the Atlantic sea breeze will be pinned from pushing inland. Max afternoon heat index values will approach Heat Advisory criteria near the coast and for some inland locations.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Convection over northeast and north central FL should dissipate by 02Z, with VFR conditions then prevailing at all but the VQQ terminal overnight, where periods of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected after 06Z. VFR conditions should then prevail by 12Z. Lower precipitation chances will be present Monday afternoon Monday afternoon as mid-level ridging suppresses convection. Confidence is low for coverage of thunderstorms starting off with vicinity of showers and storms between 18 to 20z.

MARINE

Weak troughing situated along the southeastern seaboard will continue to progress northeastward tonight, with Atlantic high pressure slowly building westward across our local waters through Monday. Scattered thunderstorms will develop close to the near shore waters this afternoon hours. A few stronger storms will be possible, with briefly gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours through early this evening. Southwesterly flow will then prevail beginning on Monday, with an afternoon sea breeze developing over the near shore waters each afternoon, followed by a southerly evening wind surge. Winds and seas are forecast to remain below Caution levels this week. Only isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast from Monday through Friday, mainly impacting the near shore waters.

Rip Currents: Breakers of 2-3 feet will combine with an easterly ocean swell and the outgoing tide to keep a high risk in place this afternoon at the northeast FL beaches. Lower surf heights at the southeast GA beaches will yield a moderate risk. Breakers will subside on Monday as prevailing winds become southwesterly, but the afternoon sea breeze will combine with a lingering ocean swell to produce a lower end moderate risk at area beaches during the afternoon hours. Persistent offshore winds will likely lower this risk by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy high afternoon dispersions beginning Tuesday

Light west to southwest winds will keep the Atlantic seabreeze near the coast each day, with lower thunderstorm coverage expected Monday onward, precipitation chances will be around 20-40%. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s inland and low to mid 90s at the coast by Tuesday with peak heat index values rising to heat advisory levels 106-110 into midweek. Dispersions improve to the good range on Monday. Patchy high inland dispersions expected Tuesday into the end of next week as mixing heights increase under the ridge along with increasing westerly transport winds. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive locally heavy rainfall. A few strong thunderstorms may produce gusty outflows with locally erratic winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 75 95 76 95 / 30 10 10 30 SSI 77 92 78 94 / 10 20 10 30 JAX 75 93 75 95 / 20 30 10 20 SGJ 77 91 76 93 / 10 20 10 10 GNV 75 93 74 94 / 30 30 10 10 OCF 75 93 74 94 / 30 20 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.