textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warning Tonight/Tuesday Morning. Hard freeze inland, light freeze coast widespread frost

- Moderate Risk for Rip Currents thru Wednesday

- Small Craft Advisory conditions Thursday Thursday night

- Patchy to Areas of Frost Possible Wednesday Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Early this morning: Freeze warning still on track with a widespread frost expected as high pressure builds directly over the FL Peninsula and expect lows in the mid/upper 20s inland, around 30 along the I-95 corridor and lower 30s for Atlantic Coastal locations. Mostly clear skies as a few high high clouds build in from the West towards morning, along with near calm winds to help in excellent radiational cooling conditions.

Today: High pressure becomes a bit more elongated East-West and sinks southward into the Central/Southern FL Peninsula as a West to Southwest steering flow develops, which will aid in bringing temps closer to normal values for early February with highs in the lower to middle 60s inland and upper 50s to near 60F along the Atlantic Coast. Expect scattered to broken high clouds at times pushing across the region from the Gulf. Southwest surface winds generally in the 5-10 mph range, except slightly stronger in the 10-15 mph range across inland SE GA with a few peak gusts to 20 mph possible.

Tonight: Next frontal boundary pushes into the SE US states with an increase in clouds across SE GA, meanwhile the lingering high pressure center will hold fast across the Central and Southern FL peninsula. This will set the stage for slightly milder overnight low temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s across SE GA under mostly cloudy skies, with even a slight chance of a shower towards morning to the Northwest of Alma. Across NE FL, the high pressure center will keep skies partly cloudy to mostly clear and still allow for cooler low temps in the lower/middle 30s inland NE FL, where scattered to areas of Frost will still be possible and Frost Advisories may be required south of the I-10 corridor and west of the St. Johns River Basin, but not enough confidence to issue with this forecast package. The slight increase in low level moisture may also produce some patchy to areas of fog formation across inland NE FL, mainly near inland bodies of water.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Showers will build across the forecast area on Wednesday, forming ahead of an advancing cold front pressing in from out of the west. Showers will move offshore and become dispersed on Thursday as the cool dry air mass settles in over the region. High temperatures ahead of the front will rise into the 60s over southeast Georgia and in the upper 60s and lower 70s over northeast Florida on Wednesday, with max temps dipping down into the 50s on Thursday. Will drop down to be below freezing following the frontal passage, with min temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s, with freezing and frosty conditions possible by the end of the period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Dry weather conditions will persist through the end of the week and into the next. Temperatures will will warm through the weekend and into the beginning of next week reaching to be near and slightly above the seasonal average.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected through this 12z TAF period. Mainly just some high clouds from time to time. Light Southwest winds around 5 knots today becoming south this afternoon/evening.

MARINE

High pressure builds over the Florida peninsula Today. The next cold front approaches from the west Wednesday, moving across the area waters Wednesday night with potential for Small Craft Advisory by early Thursday through Thursday night. Weak high pressure builds into the region, followed by another cold frontal passage on Friday with another Small Craft Advisory possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate Risk with long period swells producing surf/breakers in the 3-5 ft range today with a decrease to about 2 to 3 ft surf/breakers on Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Critically Low Rh Values Today AREAS OF LOW DISPERSIONS SOUTH OF I-10 IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA - Today PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA - Wednesday And Thursday

High pressure will move east over the Florida peninsula today and further east into the Atlantic by Wednesday, ahead of an approaching cold front pressing into the region from out of the northwest. Initially mild surface and transport winds will strengthen from out of the southwest on Wednesday, ahead of the frontal passage.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog developments are not expected for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 64 41 61 36 / 0 20 80 40 SSI 58 43 64 41 / 0 10 40 80 JAX 64 37 71 40 / 0 0 20 60 SGJ 62 37 71 43 / 0 0 10 60 GNV 65 34 71 40 / 0 0 10 60 OCF 65 33 71 41 / 0 0 10 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None.