textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy Dense Fog Over Inland Northeast FL through About 9 AM

- High Risk of Rip Currents Through Monday. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions Develop through Monday. High, Battering Surf Reaching Local Beaches Wednesday 7-12 ft Breakers

- Isolated Tstorms Along the I-95 Corridor 4-8 PM Today

- Small Craft Advisory In Effect Monday through Tuesday Night. Frequent Gale Force Wind Gusts Develop Wednesday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

8AM UPDATE

Areas of fog this morning, especially over portions of inland northeast FL, will dissipate over the next hour or so. Otherwise, forecast generally on track with slightly higher chances for showers and isolated t'storms today with more moisture in place over the low and mid levels. Best chances for convection, especially t'storms, will be over far inland GA ahead of the approaching front as well as towards the coast where the southwest Gulf breeze reaches the nearly pinned Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon and evening. A very isolated gusty microbrust in the 40-50 mph range cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening with some pockets of drier air lingering aloft, but otherwise significant strong to severe storms are not expected. Highs will be very warm today, generally in the mid to upper 80s. Some areas could push 90+ depending on the extent of both low and mid level clouds building in throughout the day today.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Isolated Thunderstorms Along the I-95 Corridor late this afternoon.

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the local Beaches This Weekend.

- Near Record Inland High Temperatures.

- Patchy inland fog possible for north-central FL early Monday.

Quiet conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the early morning hours as southerly boundary layer winds keep significant, dense fog from developing. Though dry and quiet over land, convergence near the gulf stream is expected to generates scattered showers well offshore through the morning.

As a cold front approaches today the prevailing steering flow will shift southwesterly this today. That shift will push the gulf breeze toward the Atlantic coast this afternoon which will be a focus for widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor around 4-6 PM. In addition to the sea breeze merger convection, showers and a few isolated storms may develop farther inland across SE GA in the weakly unstable warm sector along a prefrontal trough. Good mixing and southwesterly flow push afternoon highs toward daily record territory again with widespread highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees.

Overall, confidence in extensive coverage of showers or strong t'storms along the sea breeze merger is low given the lingering dry air aloft, limited dynamics, and a marginal instability profile this afternoon. Deeper moisture (PWAT above 1.5") will stay pooled along the incoming front to the northwest and likely won't reach the forecast area in time to take advantage of the diurnal heating. Any convective activity along the sea breeze merger will push off into the Atlantic around sunset.

As afternoon storms move into the Atlantic, the cold front will push into SE GA bringing a thicker cloud deck and elevated and remnant showers along its edge. Enough elevated instability will be available to keep the potential for widely scattered elevated showers to develop with the fropa this evening before chances fade by midnight. The front will slow it's forward speed as it pushes through the forecast area tonight and that may allow time for patchy fog development across north-central FL early Monday morning. Lows will dip back down into the upper 50s as drier/cooler arrives in SE GA while thick cloud cover and the slowing front delay the cooler air from arriving in NE FL until after sunrise Monday, so expect lows somewhere in the low/mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential Monday and Tuesday

- Cooler with breezy onshore flow developing Monday

The cold front will be south of the area by Monday morning, then stalling over central Florida as another front slowly approaches from the north on Tuesday. Enough moisture will remain over the area on Monday and Tuesday to prompt scattered to numerous showers mainly over northeast Florida both days. Instability will be low due to enhanced cloud cover and will limit numerous thunderstorm activity, but cannot rule out a few storms each afternoon and evening. Following the frontal passage, the local pressure gradient will increase as high pressure sits to our northeast, bringing breezy onshore winds through the week. Wind gusts Monday and Tuesday will likely stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but gusts will approach 30- 35 mph near the immediate coast and St. Johns river basin areas. After a hot weekend, temperatures will cool down Monday and Tuesday, highs generally in the 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow next week, with elevated winds along the coast and inland locations

Strong onshore winds continue through the end of the week, with gusts Wednesday and Thursday along the Atlantic coast approaching Wind Advisory criteria (40 mph). Several days of gusty northeasterly winds will create beach and marine hazards, with conditions beginning to improve Saturday as the pressure gradient weakens. Rain and isolated storm chances each day will primarily be over coastal northeast Florida. Temperatures will be below normal Wednesday and Thursday with mostly cloudy skies, and will warm up to near normal Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Areas of fog with MVFR to IFR restrictions will continue through about 13 to 14Z before rather quickly dissipating. Otherwise, VFR returns for most of the forecast period as only some diurnal cumulus and mid/high clouds with an approaching frontal boundary fill in later this morning and afternoon. Some SHRA and isolated TSRA will be possible both ahead of the front, with the highest chances for TSRA being at coastal terminals this afternoon in the vicinity of the nearly pinned sea breeze. This sea breeze is expected to make it as far inland as JAX by this evening with a wind shift from southwest to southeast. The aforementioned front moves through late in the forecast period, with winds quickly veering towards the north overnight and some lower clouds in the 035 to 050 range lingering as well.

MARINE

Ahead of an approaching cool front, onshore winds will veer southerly across the waters Today. The slowing front will gradually move north to south through the waters Sunday night bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front stalls through Monday. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build to the north resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds Monday and the onset of a multi-day period of strong onshore winds throughout the upcoming week, likely requiring an extension to the current Small Craft Advisory. Much stronger high pressure will wedge along the coast Wednesday resulting in further strengthening and potential for gales and seas building potentially up to 15 feet across the waters. As high pressure breaks away from the eastern seaboard late in the week, onshore winds will begin to relax.

Rip Currents:

Increasing southerly winds will lead to a High risk of rip currents today at area beaches as surf builds toward 3-5 feet. Fast-moving longshore currents are also expected. Throughout the week ahead, surf zone will become hazardous with a High Risk of strong rip currents each day from Monday through Friday and high, rough surf developing by Tuesday. Given the battering surf, minor beach erosion is possible after days of rough surf.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Sunday - Critically Low Min Rh Over Interior Ga Tuesday

A frontal boundary will approach the area Sunday and move through Sunday Night, which will bring more of a southwest flow except near the coast and the return of shower & t'storm chances, especially over inland GA and near the I-95 corridor to the coast where the best convergence is expected. Areas of high dispersions will be likely across inland southeast GA ahead of the front where the strongest low/mid level winds are expected. Much stronger high pressure builds in from the north for Monday and remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy onshore winds and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers the closer to the coast. Critically low minRH values are forecast Tuesday for portions of inland southeast Georgia, and will improve Wednesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog potential Sunday morning for north central Florida.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Sunday 4/5:

KJAX: 91/2017 KCRG: 91/2017 KGNV: 91/2025 KAMG: 90/2023

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 58 73 52 / 40 40 20 10 SSI 82 61 69 61 / 50 50 40 30 JAX 89 61 71 57 / 40 30 50 40 SGJ 87 64 74 61 / 30 40 70 70 GNV 89 62 76 56 / 20 10 60 60 OCF 88 62 81 60 / 20 10 60 70

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-452-470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ454-474.