textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Continue through Sunday with Breezy & Low Daytime Humidity

- Smoke Impacting Portions of Southeast GA and Northeast FL. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality | Monitor Using airnow.gov

- Isolated Thunderstorms Tonight & Sunday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm chances today and tonight

Scattered showers with possible thunderstorms are anticipated to develop through the afternoon and into this evening in association with an upper level short wave and increased moisture levels moving in over the region from out of the west, with convection more likely to develop along diurnal sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence. Main threat from storms that may form today will be gusty winds and lightning. High temperatures today will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s over inland areas and in the lower 80s for areas along the shoreline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 60s over inland areas and in the mid 60s for areas nearer to the coast. Potential for low cloud decks and patchy fog developments to form over inland areas during the overnight and early Sunday morning hours.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances throughout this period

A cold front will sink to near the FL/GA line Sunday, and be a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. The front will push to south Sunday night, as high pressure builds to the north northeast. Precipitation chances will diminish Sunday evening as the front moves away.

High pressure ridge will continue to build from the northeast Monday into Monday night.

Temperatures will be above normal Sunday, then below Monday as cooler air advects in behind the front.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday

The high will weaken and move away Tuesday into Tuesday night, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

The cold front will move into southern GA Wednesday, and move south of the area Thursday night. The front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms.

Weak high pressure will build Friday, before another cold front moves into region Saturday. A low chance for precipitation is forecast for Friday, but greater chances Saturday.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Threat for any substantial convection has mostly come to an end this evening, with the exception of a some VCSH near most terminals and some -RA that is likely to move through SSI over the next several hours. Otherwise, VFR expected through at least the next 12 hours at this time. Some patchy FU is possible overnight near SSI due to the large wildfire to the west, though not substantial enough vsby impacts expected to include in the forecast at this time. Some SHRA are expected to develop once again Sunday ahead of a frontal boundary that will move through, though confidence once again not high enough to include more than VCSH mention at this time. This also goes for any TS potential, as probability is only about 10% currently. Winds shift towards the north to northeast behind the front accordingly Sunday evening across area terminals from north to south.

MARINE

High pressure situated offshore of the southeastern states will continue to gradually weaken as it shifts eastward tonight. A cold front will then drop south towards the region Sunday, and will cross our local waters on Sunday night, with low pressure along this front strengthening somewhat off the Carolina coast by Monday. Winds will shift to northerly on Sunday night and then northeasterly by Monday morning, with Caution conditions likely due to breezy speeds and building seas through Monday evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday and Sunday Night ahead of hte boundary. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local waters on Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front will then approach our area from the northwest late next week.

Rip Currents:

A lower-end moderate risk of rip currents will likely persist today despite the fairly low wave height of about 2 feet. A lower risk is anticipated Sunday though still may be some locally moderate rip current risk based on NWPS forecasts. Strengthening northeasterly winds and building surf heights will likely bring a moderate to possibly high rip current risk for our local beaches on Monday into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

-AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY, MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A frontal boundary will affect the region through Sunday. High pressure ridging will prevail Monday into Tuesday. A frontal boundary will affect the region mid week, and yet another next weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog Tonight and Sunday night. Chances for thunderstorms each day this coming week, except Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 62 85 63 82 / 60 40 20 10 SSI 66 80 66 73 / 40 50 30 10 JAX 63 85 65 77 / 20 50 30 10 SGJ 64 85 65 79 / 10 40 40 20 GNV 60 87 64 85 / 10 40 20 20 OCF 61 87 64 87 / 0 30 20 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.