textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues

- Patchy Fog Near I-75 Wednesday Morning

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Tuesday

- Cold Front Expected Late in the Weekend. Isolated Thunderstorms & Windy Conditions Possible

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE

Breezy conditions are subsiding quickly this evening, with some high and mid clouds expected to fill in from the northwest overnight as well as some isolated shower potential for north and western areas as a shortwave aloft prefaces an approaching frontal boundary. Any rainfall is expected to be light and isolated to widely scattered, with less than 0.1" of rain expected through the early morning hours and mainly over inland GA. Fog potential is overall low tonight thanks to a light breeze around 5 mph expected to persist, though some patchy fog will be possible west of the I-75 corridor by near sunrise Wednesday. Otherwise, a more mild night expected tonight, especially the further north and west you go thanks to the cloud cover and southwest breeze. Mainly upper 40s to mid 50s are expected, with the higher readings likely to be by the coast but also interior GA thanks to thicker cloud cover.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Dry weather conditions will be in place through today and tonight. Chances for showers will increase during the overnight hours and into the next day as high pressure moves eastward and a more moist westerly flow forms over the forecast area ahead of frontal boundary situated to the north. Patchy fog developments are expected to develop overnight from out of the west, primarily affecting inland southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida to the west of the I-75 corridor. High temperatures for today will rise into the mid to upper 70s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

High pressure over the area begins to weaken as a cold front approaches from the north. Isolated to scattered light showers push in during the early morning hours on Wednesday and into the afternoon/evening hours over SE GA and for locations north of the I- 10 corridor in NE FL. Rainfall amounts are not expected to exceed 0.15" for any showers on Wednesday, with relatively higher amounts over SE GA. Otherwise warm temperatures will persist through midweek as southwesterly flow continues to allow for warm air advection from the Gulf on Wednesday. Slightly cooler daytime highs compared to this afternoon with highs in the mid 70s area-wide, but lower 70s along the coast. The cold front shifting over the area will usher in cooler air over SE GA locations, with overnight Lows in the the mid 40s and low to mid 50s over NE FL. Could see some patchy fog near the I-75 corridor in NE FL during the overnight hours into Thursday, but may be hindered by light westerly winds.

By Thursday winds shift to a more north-northeast flow as a coastal trough develops after the cold front's passage, bringing cooler temperatures along the coast and over inland SE GA locations. Daytime highs in the 60s over inland SE GA and coastal locations, while the lower to mid 70s over Suwannee Valley Region in NE FL/SE GA and north central FL counties. Clearing skies during the overnight hours will allow for Lows to dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s over SE GA locations, and the mid 40s to lower 50s along the coast and NE FL.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A couple of light showers on Friday as a warm front lifts from south to north across the area. Looking towards the weekend, guidance continues to suggest a Sfc low developing over the central plains, which will then push eastward towards the deep south during the upcoming weekend. As the Low pushes east, southwesterly flow will allow for Gulf moisture to advect into the area, with PWATs <1" on Friday increasing to around 1.2" to 1.3" by Sunday. Though the timing and location of the Low's path (Euro more north, GFS more South), it does seem precipitation will begin to increase Saturday night, with widespread showers moving in on Sunday as the associated cold front nears the local area, then lingering showers on Monday as the front pushes out offshore. Kept the mention of isolated thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, the potential for strong/severe remains in questions as uncertainty with the evolution of the remains. Current estimates of total rainfall range from 0.25" to 1.5" from Saturday night to Tuesday night, with the higher amounts along SE GA inland locations, with the GFS hinting at heavier amounts compared to the Euro.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through most if not all of the forecast period at this time. Breezy conditions are quickly coming down to below 10 kts at all airfields except SSI which will follow suit over the next 1-2 hours. High and mid clouds are expected to increase tonight, with enough of a breeze expected to limit any fog potential. Have included a SCT low cloud deck at GNV as guidance suggests this potential with a southwest moist breeze off the Gulf, though not expecting any operational impacts at this time. Areas of SHRA will start to affect the region tomorrow, though confidence in timing and impacts only high enough to include VCSH at all terminals at this time.

MARINE

High pressure will shift further east of the waters today with a long period easterly swell keeping elevated seas through this evening. The high will shift southeast of the region Wednesday as a weakening front approaches with increasing westerly winds and isolated to scattered showers. The front will stall and linger over south Florida Thursday with northeast winds over local waters. The front will morph into a lifting warm front late Friday into Saturday. Rain chances increase this weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west late Saturday into Sunday with winds increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate rip current risk today as easterly swells with periods of up to 11-13 seconds continue to produce surf/breakers into the 3-4 ft range at local beaches. Easterly swells will continue a moderate risk of rip currents Wednesday despite offshore flow from the west southwest due to surf/breakers of 3-4 ft.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Wednesday

West-southwesterly flow continues through midweek ahead of an approaching cold front. This will result in good dispersions, with patchy high dispersions, to continue on Wednesday. The continued southwesterly flow will allow for moisture levels to increase as Gulf moisture brings RHs into 50s on Wednesday. Isolated showers will move through mainly southeast Georgia Tonight into Wednesday night. Accumulations will be light. The cold front passes through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Brief high pressure builds in for Thursday resulting in poor to fair dispersions. The return of dry conditions on Thursday behind the cold front, with RH values in the 20s once again across southeast Georgia and the 30s across the Suwannee Valley Region in northeast Florida.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible across inland NE FL and SE GA this morning, with denser fog occurring in proximity with wildfire smoke.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 55 75 45 67 / 30 50 20 0 SSI 54 71 50 59 / 10 40 50 0 JAX 52 76 52 66 / 0 30 20 0 SGJ 52 74 54 66 / 0 10 20 10 GNV 50 77 54 74 / 0 10 10 10 OCF 49 75 54 75 / 0 10 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.