textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues for St Johns River through Monday night,. High Risk for Rip Currents and High Surf (NE FL beaches) through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Tuesday

- Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this evening and tonight, south of I-10. Rainfall amounts 1/2 to 2 with localized amounts up to 3 to 4 for Northeast FL south of Jacksonville

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible for coastal NE FL this evening and overnight.

- Minor tidal flooding withing the St Johns River basin continues

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

A tight local pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the NNE and inverted troughing to the east over the coastal waters will continue ENE winds 10-15 mph gusting to around 25 mph to near 30 mph at the coast. Scattered to numerous Showers spurred by energy aloft from a passing shortwave trough moving across the FL panhandle and the deep south and well above average moisture levels and coastal convergence will continue to lift across NE FL and also across the SE GA coast closer to the inverted trough. Some instability and cooler mid level temperatures will support isolated embedded T'storms that may briefly enhance heavy downpours. Overall rainfall amounts of a quarter to half inch may materialize through sunset, but most rainfall amounts will be under a quarter of an inch, locally higher where showers linger longer. Temperatures briefly warmed to the low 80s in portions of north Jacksonville under a a break in cloud cover, but otherwise still expecting temperatures not to rise above the upper 70s for NE FL and mid 70s over SE GA.

Tonight, showers will lift more to the SE GA coast with scattered to numerous showers lifting from central FL into north central FL. Where any showers train over the same area, upwards of 2 to 3 inches could fall which may lead to localized flooding concerns in low lying areas, especially coastal low lying areas around high tide.

Skies will remain cloudy tonight with decreasing winds inland away from the coast 6-12 mph with an occasional gust to 15 to 20 mph. But, remain breezy at the coast 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s over SE GA and warmer across NE FL in the upper 60s to near 70 at the coast, except mid 60s over the Suwannee Valley.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Mon

Breezy east northeast onshore flow will persist into early week, supporting widespread showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms, particularly Monday afternoon. The greatest convective coverage and rainfall potential will focus along and east of the Highway 301 corridor, where persistent onshore flow, coastal trough and convergence, and anomalously high precipitable water values will favor the potential for enhanced rainfall. General rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.50 inches are expected east of Highway 301, with WPC highlighting the potential for localized totals of 2 to 3 inches, particularly near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. PoPs will peak around 60 to 70 percent from areas east of Highway 301 to the First Coast before decreasing to 30 to 40 percent Monday night as an upper-level shortwave trough shifts eastward.

On Tuesday, winds will gradually veer to the east, while abundant atmospheric moisture, with PWAT values remaining approximately one inch above seasonal averages, supports scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms across Northeast Florida. Coverage will be considerably lower across Southeast Georgia, where precipitation chances will range from single digits to 20 percent near the FL and GA border. Rain chances will steadily diminish later in the day, becoming negligible by Tuesday evening. High temperatures will range from 75 to 80 degrees Monday, increasing to the mid 70s along the coast and lower 80s inland Tuesday. Overnight lows will generally remain near 70 degrees along the coast, falling into the lower to mid 60s across inland areas. Breezy conditions will persist both days, with peak wind gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential midweek

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions.

- Drier conditions at end of the week and next weekend

A more progressive synoptic pattern will take shape by midweek as high pressure shifts northeast and an amplified upper-level trough and associated cold front advance eastward from the Mississippi Valley toward the Southeast. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of the approaching boundary will transport Gulf moisture northward across the forecast area, maintaining favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday will remain unsettled, with partly sunny skies and widely scattered to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s along the coast to the lower and middle 80s inland, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The cold front will approach the region Thursday before progressing through Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida Thursday night and Friday. Ahead of the boundary, southwesterly flow will support limited shower and thunderstorm development Thursday, with activity primarily focused across the Suwannee Valley and Southeast Georgia. Guidance suggests precipitation probabilities of 25 to 35 across these areas, with generally lower to nil chances elsewhere. High temperatures will remain relatively warm, ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s, while overnight lows fall into the mid 60s.

By Friday and Saturday, behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and predominantly dry conditions are expected as more stable air settles across the region. Winds will become lighter and shift to the northwest behind the front. High temperatures will gradually moderate into the 75 to 80 degree range by Saturday, while overnight lows fall into the mid to upper 50s, with lower 60s possible along the coast. Overall, a noticeable cooling trend is expected through the weekend, with overnight temperatures returning closer to seasonal averages following the frontal passage.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

The 18Z TAF period will begin with VFR ceilings with MVFR visibility and ceiling restrictions for SSI/SGJ/VQQ/GNV where showers will continue the next 2 to 3 hours. SHowers will lift from GNV and spread north and east the rest of the afternoon. Breezy ENE winds will be 12-15 knots with gusts around 20-25 knots. Winds will decrease tonight away from the coast to 5-8 knots with showers continuing along the coast with a lull at SSI late tonight before resuming Monday with winds increasing back to 12-15 knots along the coast and 10-12 knots inland. Lower ceilings overnight should be inland west of SSI and to the northwest of the Northeast FL TAF sites.

MARINE

Strong high pressure wedged along the coast will continue elevated seas and small craft advisory conditions through at least Monday evening. Though winds will decrease through Tuesday, lingering elevated seas will remain through the middle of the week. High pressure will remain to the north but with a weaker influence through the second half of the week resulting in lighter winds and lowering seas. Bouts of showers and heavy downpours will be possible through the middle of the upcoming week, especially Monday and Tuesday as coastal troughing develops.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Dangerous surf zone conditions continue with a High rip current risk at all area beaches through Monday and elevated to high surf for the entire coast. The highest breakers, around 6-8 feet will be from Ponte Vedra south through Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

A weakening cold front settling southward will maintain breezy east northeast winds through Monday, particularly along the coast, where gusts up 25 to 30 mph are possible. Periods of showers will move across the area, with coverage increasing late this afternoon and evening and continuing into Monday. A few afternoon and early evening thunderstorms are also possible today, primarily south of the Interstate 10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport winds, persistent overcast skies will limit mixing heights, resulting in generally fair to good daytime dispersion. Winds will gradually shift to the east early next week before becoming southerly by midweek as wind speeds decrease.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not anticipated through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across Northeast Florida from this afternoon through Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Tidal levels continue to trend downward after each successive cycle. While elevated tides are expected to continue within the St Johns River basin and its tributaries, water levels are likely to remain in the 1.5-2.0 feet MHHW (mean higher high water), or at "Minor" levels. Elevated tides are likely to continue through Monday and possibly until Wednesday. As winds decrease this upcoming week, natural flow direction will allow tides to lower gradually.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 62 79 64 82 / 30 10 0 10 SSI 66 76 67 77 / 50 40 30 30 JAX 66 78 67 80 / 50 50 30 20 SGJ 69 77 70 79 / 40 60 40 30 GNV 67 80 67 83 / 50 40 10 40 OCF 68 81 68 84 / 60 40 10 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ038-125- 132-137-225-325-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472- 474.