textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River

- Inland Late Night & Morning Fog Wednesday & Thursday Mornings

- Local NorEaster Conditions Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Periods of Locally Heavy Rainfall at Coast Possible. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Dense fog possible tonight for portions of southeast Georgia and inland northeast Florida

Dry air remains over the area, with GOES derived precipitable water analysis showing PWATs around 0.6-1.0 inches, leaving clear skies and warm temperatures. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s inland, and lower 80s along the east coast as light onshore winds continue. Tonight, lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s inland, and upper 70s to low 70s along the coast and St. Johns river basin area. Chances for fog tonight have been steadily increasing, with models showing the highest potential for dense fog generally east of Waycross in southeast Georgia, and also for interior northeast Florida through sunrise.

SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: Thursday through Friday night

- Potential for a few strong storms over north central FL Friday afternoon

Surface high pressure ridge will remain overhead through Thursday night. This high will weaken and move east Friday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will move southeast across the area from late Friday through Friday night. Increasing moisture will pool into north central FL Friday afternoon ahead of the front, which will produce potential for showers and thunderstorms.

A surge of winds will move down the coast following the frontal passage, as strong high pressure builds to the northwest.

Temperatures will be above average this period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: Saturday through Wednesday

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Saturday through Tuesday

Strong high pressure will build to the northwest Saturday, then more toward the north Saturday night, and northeast Sunday. Inverted troughing is expected to develop in the onshore flow pattern which will act to enhance the onshore flow. Convergence associated with the coastal troughing will also create the potential for showers near the coast.

High pressure will gradually weaken through mid week, with continued onshore flow. Winds will remain elevated, but gradually decrease later this period.

High temperatures will trend below average this period, but the onshore flow will keep reading above average during the nights.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions with light ENE winds continue through 06Z. Winds will calm overnight as fog develops across most of the TAF sites. Between 08-13Z, fog will lower VSBYs to IFR/LIFR for all TAF sites except SGJ. 1/4SM VSBY is likely to prevail at VQQ, SSI, JAX, and GNV. Fog should lift and dissipate by 14Z. NE winds around 5-10 kts then develop for Wednesday.

MARINE

A high pressure system over the southeast states will slowly move east, and push well offshore by Thursday night and Friday. A strong cold front will cross the local waters late Friday night through Saturday morning, followed by building high pressure well to the north. Lighter winds and seas will continue through at least Thursday. Deteriorating marine conditions expected Friday night and into the weekend as a surge of northeasterly winds develop across the waters. Small Craft Advisories are anticipated with the potential for Gale conditions this weekend into early next week.

Rip Currents: Breezy offshore winds will keep the risk low at all area beaches today. Developing northeasterly winds will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches from Tuesday through Thursday, while low surf heights keep the risk generally low at the southeast GA beaches. Rough surf and a high rip current risk develops this weekend as strong northeasterly winds develop.

FIRE WEATHER

WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LATE NIGHT - And Early Morning Dense Fog Potential Over Inland Areas

High pressure will prevail across the area through Friday with warm and dry conditions. Light and variable winds are expected with an East Coast sea breeze pushing inland each afternoon. Min RH's will fall into the 30 to 40 percent range across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley each afternoon. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night, with a period of elevated onshore winds beginning this weekend and lasting into early next week. Any significant rainfall expected this weekend into early next week will mainly be focused along the NE Florida coastal areas and St. Johns River Basins.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is expected during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required the next few mornings.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 62 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 67 84 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 66 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 70 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 66 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 66 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.