textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Friday Morning. Areas Potentially Impacted: Southeast GA, I-95 & U.S.-301 Corridors in

- Northeast & North Central FL. Additional Rounds of Morning Fog Likely at Inland Locations this Weekend

- Near Record Warmth Continues Inland into Next Week

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Early Next Week. Be very cautious with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Southeast GA & the

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Early this morning...Areas of dense fog still on track to develop across SE GA and coastal NE FL and into the near-shore coastal waters and expect enough of this dense fog to become widespread enough for dense fog advisories, and these have already been posted for the I-95 corridor and US 301 corridors in SE GA.

Today...After morning dense fog, high pressure over the region will drift further SE down the FL Peninsula and expect low level steering flow to become more SW with above normal temps and dry weather continuing this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s inland, and around 80F at the Atlantic Coastal areas as a weak East Coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland to the I-95 and US 17 corridors, but not enough moisture for any rainfall chances.

Tonight...High pressure center continues to press south of the region with SW steering flow remaining in place and expect low level moisture to push off the NE Gulf, with a shift in dense fog potential to inland NE FL and into the Suwannee Valley across inland North FL and into inland SE GA later tonight, but will depend on any increase in high clouds over the SE states. Low temps generally still in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

High pressure over the FL peninsula retreats southward as a cold front moves through the SE US on Saturday. Southwesterly flow ahead of the front will usher in some low level moisture but likely not enough to overcome the dry airmass over the region. The aforementioned cold front will pass through the area Saturday night into Sunday and is expected to be mostly dry given limited moisture and weakening upper level support. A stray shower will be possible ahead of the boundary Saturday afternoon for far inland SE GA. This lack of rainfall will unfortunately not bring any relief to the severe/extreme drought conditions in our area. High pressure builds in the wake of the front shifting winds to NNE on Sunday. Due to the increase in moisture, inland fog will remain possible Saturday and Sunday mornings. Above seasonable temperatures continue on Saturday with highs in the low 80s area-wide. Temperatures return closer to seasonable across SE GA on Sunday as brief cold air advection filters in from the north.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure over the eastern US on Monday will shift into the western Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. Coastal troughing develops over the local waters on Monday with a few showers developing in the breezy onshore flow. Temps quickly warm back to above seasonable with developing SSW flow and a warm front lifting northward up the FL peninsula into midweek. A stronger cold front moves through the SE US Tuesday into Thursday. This system will bring our next chance of rainfall for midweek although it is still uncertain if it will be enough to help the current drought. Otherwise, fog development will continue to be of concern during the upcoming week as moisture continues to be advect into the area due to the southerly flow.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Dense fog and low stratus ceilings are expected to overspread SSI, the Duval County terminals, and SGJ overnight through the predawn hours on Friday. Confidence in ceiling and visibility impacts at GNV remains low at this time, and we have thus indicated MVFR conditions beginning around 09Z. MVFR visibilities at SSI will likely deteriorate to IFR by 03Z and then LIFR by 05Z. Onset times at the Duval County terminals and SGJ are less certain, with MVFR conditions forecast to begin at VQQ after 03Z and at JAX, CRG, and SGJ after 06Z. LIFR conditions should then prevail at these terminals by 09Z. Fog and low stratus ceilings will then lift in the 13Z-15Z time frame on Friday morning, with VFR conditions expected to prevail by 16Z. Light easterly surface winds early this evening will diminish by midnight, followed by southwesterly winds developing and increasing to around 5 knots as fog and stratus ceilings lift towards 15Z.

MARINE

Weakening high pressure will continue to shift slowly southeastward across the Florida peninsula through Saturday. Dense sea fog is expected to develop early this morning across the Georgia waters, with this fog potentially extending to the near shore waters adjacent to coastal northeast Florida before dissipating by early afternoon. A weakening and mostly dry frontal boundary will then push southward through the Georgia waters on Saturday night, with this boundary pushing across the northeast FL waters early on Sunday morning. High pressure will build eastward from the Ozarks on Sunday towards the Mid- Atlantic states by Monday afternoon, with breezy onshore winds developing across our local waters from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. A stronger cold front may then push eastward across the southeastern states on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with southerly winds expected to develop ahead of this front beginning on Tuesday evening.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents with surf/breakers of 1-2 feet Today into the weekend with general offshore flow, with only a weak onshore/sea breeze during the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION

Another warm and dry day is in store today as high pressure gradually retreats. Breezy southwesterly winds develop across inland southeast Georgia this afternoon ahead of an approaching front. Dispersions today will range from fair in southeast Georgia to low at the Atlantic coast and north-central Florida. Breezy southwesterly winds will spread across the entire area on Saturday as the aforementioned front pushes southeastward into and through the region overnight Saturday into Sunday. This will lead to good daytime dispersions area-wide and an increase in low level moisture. Unfortunately, this frontal passage will lack any much needed rainfall for the area suffering from severe/extreme drought conditions. Northeasterly winds behind the front Sunday will trend easterly by Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy to areas of fog are likely this morning and Saturday morning. Dense fog will be focused along the I-95 corridor this morning and I-75 corridor Saturday morning.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

FRI 11/21 SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1991 84/1973 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 82/2004 81/1997 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 86/1973 86/1906 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 83/2011 83/2011

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 57 82 57 77 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 60 79 62 73 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 57 83 61 80 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 58 81 63 78 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 55 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 54 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ024-038- 124-125-138-225-233-325-333-425-433-533-633. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ136- 152>154-165-166-264. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ450-452.