textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents for NE FL this afternoon and all beaches this weekend.

- Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms Each Day. Main Hazards: Frequent Lighting Strikes, Locally Heavy Downpours, and wind gusts of 40-50 mph.

- Building heat this weekend. First hot, humid weekend with heat index readings in the triple digits for portions of NE FL

- Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Most of Our Region

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

- Hot and humid!

- Isolated strong storms inland southeast GA, west of Waycross.

- High Risk of rip currents at NE FL beaches

Fairly stagnant pattern continues today, featuring hot, humid summer like weather. Temperatures will push into the low 90s, except at the immediate coastal communities, this afternoon. Dewpoints in the 70s, will make it make it "feel like" the mid to upper 90s - important to frequently hydrate if working outside today.

Southerly low level flow will send a feed of deeper moisture across the area this afternoon which will fuel convection along the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes inland this afternoon. Though there will be interactions along the St Johns River breeze during the late afternoon, the bulk of the convective activity will be focused closer to the I-75 corridor and interior areas southeast GA (west of Waycross). Cooler temperatures aloft associated with a deflected shortwave will favor areas of NW of Waycross and this may allow a few strong storms to develop during the early evening hours. The main hazards will be slow-moving t'storms or outflow-dominated movement that could lead to minor flooding. Additionally, the higher- grade buoyancy may allow stronger pulse storms capable of gusty outflows as they collapse - up to 40 mph.

Tonight, convective coverage will decrease with the loss of heating but it's possible a few rogue showers or isolated t'storms will persist until midnight, especially in the NW corner of the forecast area where the shortwave will begin to lift away to the north. Mild conditions are expected again tonight with lows generally in the low 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

- Daily thunderstorms each afternoon and evening - Isolated Strong T'Storms Possible Inland - Hot and humid conditions

High pressure ridging over the region will maintain SSE flow this weekend. Moisture advection continues with PWATs soaring into the 1.8-2.1 inch range. This, combined with a few passing shortwaves aloft, will promote an increase in convective coverage along the inland-moving sea breezes each afternoon and evening. With the SSE flow, the sea breezes will converge mainly between I-75 and HWY 301 corridors. Isolated strong storms will be possible both days, perhaps a little better chance on Saturday with temps aloft slightly cooler at -9C, mid level lapse rates steeper around 6.5 deg/km, and deep layer shear a bit higher near 25-30 kt. Storms will linger into the evening and drift eastward toward the I-95 corridor. Best chances for stronger storms will be over inland SE GA. Above seasonable temperatures continue with daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Peak heat indices will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows will drop down into the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid 70s for areas near the shoreline.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

- Hot temperatures continue into early next week - Chances of showers and storms each day

The high pressure ridge axis across the southeast states and the western Atlantic will gradually shift southward through the week next week. Some drier air filters in Monday into Tuesday reducing storm coverage to more scattered. Coverage increases mid to late week with the return of moisture and a decrease in subsidence. Hot temperatures will persist through Tuesday with inland highs in the lower 90s, and east coast highs in the mid to upper 80s. Max temps may trend a little lower mid to late week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions prevail early this morning. Between 09-12z there could be some shallow, localized fog at KVQQ but otherwise fog is not expected. There may also be occasional lower broken stratocumulus push into KSGJ and KSSI through the morning with ceilings around 2 kft.

The questionable weather and lower confidence forecast will be potential for convection in terminal airspace. Best chances will be at KGNV after 19z but there is a low chance (<30%) that isolated showers may mature into pulse t'storms as the Atlantic sea breeze contacts the St Johns River breeze, around 19-21z. PROB30 groups were maintained due to the uncertainty of convective development. T'storm potential will decrease after 00z with scattered VFR cloud cover Friday evening.

Winds will trend similar to the previous couple of days: southeasterly in the AM, shifting easterly, around 8-12 kts, with the sea breeze during the afternoon and early evening hours.

MARINE

Broad influence from a high pressure situated near Bermuda through the weekend and at least through the middle of next week. The western axis of high pressure will be north of the local waters resulting in southerly winds, that will increase during the afternoon hours as the sea breeze develops. Seas will build to 4 to 5 feet during the enhanced southeasterly winds behind the sea breeze and small craft should exercise caution. Only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across our local waters, with increasing chances possible towards the middle portion of next week.

Rip Currents:

Southeasterly surge this afternoon will elevate breakers to 3-4 feet and lead to a High Risk of rip currents this afternoon, for the NE FL beaches. Due to the high number of beachgoers during the holiday weekend and persistent pattern, a high risk of rip currents will continue through the Weekend. Though moderate risk is expected today, SE GA beaches will be at a high risk for rip currents this weekend as well.

FIRE WEATHER

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient south and southeast transport winds will result in generally good to very good dispersions each afternoon through the weekend. Moisture continues to filter into the area keeping Min RHs above critical values. The sea breezes will shift inland each afternoon developing showers and thunderstorms that continue into the evening hours. In the south- southeast flow, the sea breeze merger will likely be between the I- 75 and US 301 corridors in the late afternoon into early evening. Storm coverage increases over the weekend especially across southeast Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into this weekend.

CLIMATE

While record highs are not anticipated over the next several days despite the upward trend, the very mild low temperatures (lower to mid 70s) may result in some record warm minimums at Jacksonville and Gainesville. This may continue into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 91 70 89 68 / 70 60 80 50 SSI 89 75 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 JAX 92 73 92 75 / 30 10 60 40 SGJ 90 75 91 76 / 20 10 20 40 GNV 93 73 93 73 / 30 30 60 40 OCF 93 73 93 74 / 20 20 40 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 11 AM EDT this morning through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.