textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Northeasterly Winds, Coastal/Marine Impacts Increase Friday Night. Coastal Flood Watch - Moderate to Potentially Major Tidal and Coastal Flooding

- During the Upcoming Weekend and into Next Week. Gale Conditions Possible for the Local Atlantic Waters. Wind Advisory Possible Near the Coasts & St. Johns River. Dangerous/High Surf Conditions with a High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for Coastal Northeast FL Saturday

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- High Risk for Rip Currents - Minor coastal flooding portions of NE FL

Strengthening high pressure will build to the north through the night. It will be a dry night. With an onshore flow, there will be a broad range in temperatures, with lows in the upper 40s over interior SE GA and lows around 60 along the NE FL coast.

SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards to continue into the weekend with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding, with increasing chances for moderate coastal flooding by Saturday.

- Wind Advisory likely for coastal locations on Saturday afternoon

High pressure will shift towards the eastern CONUS on Friday as a coastal trough develops along the eastern seaboard. A tightening of the pressure gradient between the two features will bring a steady increase in onshore winds into and through the upcoming weekend.

Dry conditions are expected to continue through Friday afternoon, with chances of showers beginning to increase by Friday Night. Convergence from the coastal trough will bring mainly coastal showers by Saturday morning with a few embedded thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. Additionally, the strong onshore flow will bring northeast winds in the 15 to 20 mph range on Friday, becoming 25 to 30 mph with gusts near 35 to 45 mph on Saturday afternoon. A Wind Advisory may be needed for coastal areas on Saturday. With the increase in onshore northeasterly flow, coastal hazards will continue across the local area, including high rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, and minor to moderate tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast and the St Johns River basin by Saturday afternoon. A need for a Coastal Flood Watch will be determined in the next forecast package.

Mostly clear and sunny conditions away from the coast will allow for temperatures to warm to the mid to upper 70s on Friday and Saturday afternoon, with a bit cooler temperatures along the coast. Overnight Lows will drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region, while the rest of NE FL will be in the lower 60s to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: Sunday through Wenesdday

- Coastal Hazards Expected at least Sunday and Monday, Likely Through the Week - Potential for localized flooding in heavy rain bands Sunday and Monday, mainly east of I-95

High pressure will remain northeast of the region Sunday and Monday, interacting with troughing over the Bahamas also to persist strong onshore flow and coastal/marine hazards through at least the start of the long term period. The same high will weaken a bit and shift more due north of the area on Monday and into Tuesday, but essentially replaced by a "fresh" ridge of high pressure down the southeastern seaboard for mid week. Due to convergence from the ridging and inverted troughing, bands of showers are expected Sunday through Monday, especially near the coast. Though slightly weakening in the high pressure will bring a weakenening in the onshore flow slightly. There is still high confidence with respect to at least modest onshore winds persisting through the entirety of the long term, which will likely also result in prolonged hazards including minor to moderate coastal/St. Johns River flooding persisting in addition to an elevated rip current risk at area beaches and rough surf/beach erosion.

Temperatures will overall remain near to below normal for the long term thanks to the persistent onshore flow.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are forecast throughout this 00z TAF period.

Winds will increase through the day Friday, especially near the coast, as strong high pressure builds to the north and an inverted trough develops to the east southeast.

MARINE

Through the weekend, high pressure ridge located to the north of the area will build while a trough of low pressure develops just south of the Bahamas. This will continue to support hazardous marine conditions across most of the area waters through tonight. As the pressure gradient tightens further on Friday, strengthening northeast winds and building seas are expected and will continue into the weekend and early next week. Northeast winds to Gale force may develop as early as Friday night and become likely for the weekend into early next week. A surge of moisture this weekend will also support elevated chances for moderate to heavy showers which lasts from Saturday through Monday.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continues much of this week and weekend given the elevated surf conditions and onshore flow. Elevated surf will continue to be a problem the next few days for any swimmer entering the surf zone. Looking ahead, high surf advisory looks probable for the weekend as northeast flow increases with surf estimated to reach upwards of 7 to 10 feet by Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

- INLAND RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 30s THIS AFTERNOON - Inland Se Ga Rh Values Fall To Around 30 Friday - Patchy High Dispersions Friday Through Sunday

Dry weather will continue through the rest of the work week as high pressure remains north of the region, with breezy north-northeast winds persisting. Onshore winds will steadily increase through the weekend, with high daytime and nighttime dispersions developing along the coast. Drier air filtering in from the north will cause Min RHs to be just above critical levels, in the upper 20s to low 30s for much of inland southeast Georgia through Friday. Chances for mainly coastal showers will also increase this weekend into early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected the next few days. A few coastal thunderstorms are possible Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Recent observations show minor flooding still occurring from Downtown Jacksonville upstream/southward to Satsuma. Peak water levels have been from 1.6 to 1.9 ft MHHW in the past 24 hours, while from Southbank/Main Street to Dames Point and Mayport peaked just below 1.6 ft so just below minor at this time. The combination of departures of 1 to 1.5 ft and latest PETSS guidance show water levels pushing a little higher today through Friday and still in minor category. Therefore, the advisory is being continued for the current area.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another surge of northeast winds and the full moon on Sunday/Monday Oct 25-26 will push water levels up further, especially for the coast. Confidence is growing for moderate tidal flooding (up to 2.5 ft MHHW) and coastal flood watches have been issued. Some tidal stations may reach low- end moderate flooding as early as the Saturday morning high tide, but Sunday and Monday are when the best chances of moderate tidal flooding would occur.

At the beaches, minor beach erosion will continue the next couple of days especially at times of high tide due to the rough surf. As the astronomical tides increase later this week and over the weekend, the combination of the increased surf and water levels will lead to higher beach erosion potential. This potential looks higher than the prior northeast wind event around Oct 17th-18th.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 49 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 55 71 59 71 / 0 0 10 20 JAX 54 74 60 73 / 0 0 30 50 SGJ 60 75 65 75 / 0 0 60 90 GNV 54 78 58 78 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 54 79 58 79 / 0 0 0 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-125- 132-137-138-225-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. Coastal Flood Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning for FLZ124-125-138-233-325-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for GAZ154- 166. Coastal Flood Watch from late Friday night through Monday morning for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472- 474.