textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Beneficial rain through Sunday night, with only isolated thunderstorm potential Sunday for locations of NE FL south of I-10.

- Light Freezes & Frost Possible Inland on Mon & Tues Nights

- Small Craft Advisory possible Monday night into Tuesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A stalled frontal boundary will stay to the south, laying across central Florida, through tonight. However, the welcomed wet weather will continue overnight as moist mild isentropic ascent increases overnight, upping rain chances to 70-90% late tonight. Strong forcing from the favorable isentropic flow across the stalled front and the favorable alignment of an upper level jet streak should lead to a widespread stratiform rain with heavy drizzle mixed in. With the stronger isentropic lift closer to the stalled front, the higher rain accumulations Sunday are expected across NE FL where 1-3" of beneficial rainfall will be possible. Not expecting this to bust the drought given the deficit but it's a trend in the right direction.

With the wet weather, gloomy overcast skies will continue through tonight keeping temperatures in the mid and upper 40s across SE GA and in the low to mid 50s in NE FL.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A slow moving warm front over central FL Sunday morning, will slowly lift into NE FL during the day. Lift along this frontal zone will yield a significant chance for showers, especially across NE FL. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be along, and just north of the warm front. Periods of moderate rainfall can be expected, with a few local bursts of heavier rain, mainly in thunderstorms. It will be a cooler than normal day, with a wide range in temperatures from north to south due to frontal position. Highs will range from the upper 50s around Alma, GA, to the lower to middle 70s for Ocala and south.

The frontal zone will stretch west to east, roughly along the GA/FL line Monday morning. The front will then move to the southeast of the area Monday afternoon, as high pressure builds to the northwest. The elevated rain chances will continue through the night Sunday night, then decrease through the day Monday from northwest to southeast. Due to the cloud cover and frontal location, lows will range near to a little above average Sunday night. Another below normal day is expected on Monday. The exception will be south of Gainesville, where the timing of the front will allow temperatures to moderate to near to above average levels.

High pressure will build to the north Monday night, with a dry night expected. Cold advection will push readings below normal Tuesday night. Winds should drop off enough for a bit of frost over inland SE GA.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure ridge located just north of the area Tuesday morning, will sink south across area Tuesday night and Wednesday. The high will build to the southeast Wednesday night through Thursday night. The weather will be dry Tuesday through Thursday.

A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday into Friday night. An upper wave will move along this boundary. Showers will be expected as this boundary goes through, with a few thunderstorms possible. Strong high pressure will follow this frontal passage for Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

LIFR ceilings have lifted toward MVFR and to VFR at a few area terminals in NE FL as of 18z. However, this will be temporary and overcast ceilings from IFR to MVFR are expected with bands of light showers through the rest of the daylight hours. Increasing potential that ceilings, though overcast, will lift toward MVFR again and maybe to around 3-4k ft until the next impulse moves across the region tonight bringing another widespread LIFR low stratus with heavy drizzle and rain through predawn and most of the day Sunday. Unlike today, anticipate a thick deck of low clouds with LIFR/IFR ceilings to be more persistent Sunday versus this afternoon. Winds will trend from north to northeast through the period at or below 10 knots.

MARINE

A frontal boundary will stall south of the forecast waters today and into tonight. A wave of low pressure will then develop along this front just south of the northeast Florida waters late tonight with widespread rainfall and a isolated embedded thunderstorms early Sunday into Sunday night over the Florida waters. Low pressure will move offshore on Sunday night, resulting in strengthening northwest winds. High pressure will then build over the southeast states early next week, creating strengthening northerly winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions from Monday through Tuesday evening.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday NE FL Moderate Sunday

FIRE WEATHER

A frontal zone will provide wet weather over the region through Monday morning. High pressure will build to the northwest Monday night, then build overhead Tuesday. The high will sink to the southeast Wednesday through Thursday. The cold front will move southeast across the region Friday into Friday night. Strong high pressure will build to the northwest Saturday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Thunderstorm potential over NE FL through Sunday night. Light Freeze with frost likely over SE GA Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 45 56 46 59 / 50 50 40 20 SSI 50 61 50 62 / 70 70 50 20 JAX 50 64 51 65 / 70 80 60 20 SGJ 55 66 56 67 / 70 90 80 20 GNV 54 67 55 69 / 70 90 80 20 OCF 57 72 57 70 / 50 90 90 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.