textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents through the Weekend

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer Through Next Week. Elevated Wildfire Danger This Weekend

- Locally Dense Fog Early Sunday Morning and possibly again Monday Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Rest of Today and Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Currents continues at NE FL/SE GE beaches

- Locally dense fog possible late tonight

Surface high pressure system remains centered just north of the area around 1024 mb helping to maintain a northeast to east surface flow. Rest of the afternoon, sfc winds expected to be near 10-15 mph with a few higher gusts, mainly for the coastal areas. The onshore flow also keeping the coastal high temps in the 70s while inland it will be in the mid 80s. No meaningful rain chances given the subsidence aloft and dry airmass with PWATs well below 1 inch. We did note a convergence line extending from near SGJ to northeast into coastal waters. This line looks pretty weak and not impressive at this time.

By this evening, the high pressure center will already be located just off the GA and SC coasts so the onshore flow will continue. Inland winds will decouple late evening and overnight. Mostly clear or clear skies along with the dry airmass and calming winds will allow lows to fall to about 48-50 deg inland and near 60 deg at the coast. The pattern will also support and favor locally dense fog toward sunrise. Also, we nudged the low temps toward the NBM 25th and 10th percentiles given the known NBM bias.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry and Warm through Monday - Inland Late Night/Early Morning Fog

High pressure well north of the region will slowly scoot towards northeast of the area through Monday, with a ridge of high pressure holding firm with a general east to east/southeast flow over the region. Dry and warm conditions continue, especially inland thanks to the onshore flow continuing with just some scattered diurnal clouds in addition to some higher thin clouds moving overhead by Monday. Rip current risk will remain high at area beaches through Sunday, which also could last into Monday. Highs in the mid to upper 80s will be expected inland west of about the I-95 corridor, with mid 70s to low 80s closer to the coast. Lows in the 50s will be common inland with low 60s closer to the coast. Patchy to areas of fog will be expected inland as well where winds die down the most.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Temperatures trending to above normal during the upcoming week

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather for the region for most if not all of the long term period. The high will start to orient more due east of the region by mid to late week inducing more of a southeast to southerly flow, which combined with building ridging/subsidence aloft will maintain dry and increasingly warm conditions daily. Unfortunately, this will remain unfavorable for the ongoing drought conditions, and therefore elevated wildfire risk is expected to continue as well.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

VFR prevails. There will be scattered to broken clouds around 5 kft for parts of northeast FL this aftn, and these should become less prevalent after about 22Z. Late in the period, after about 06z-08z, there looks like a decent chance of stratus and fog for GNV, VQQ, and JAX so have trended TAFs in that direction. Because VQQ reports fog/mist just about every night, will probably hit that TAF hardest for low vsby and cig, bringing it to LIFR. For winds, E-NE around 8-14 kt with gusts near 20 kt rest of today and decreasing once again by sunset.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the weekend into next week. Elevated seas today over the area waters, mostly from east swells, will gradually subside through early next week.

Rip Currents and Surf:

East swells and onshore flow this weekend will keep a high risk of rip currents with rough surf of up to near 3-5 ft. Report from Fernandina Beach lifeguard this morning indicated strong rips. NWPS rip current probabilities are high, suggesting values above 80 percent for most of the area southeast GA and northeast FL beaches this weekend. The highest values, above 90 percent, were indicated for most of our northeast FL beaches. The elevated risk of rip currents will persist the first few day of next week as well.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions For Inland Northeast Fl Today - Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Sunday And Monday - Critically Low Humidity Inland This Weekend

Warm and dry pattern will persist through the rest of the weekend and into early next week with a mostly onshore flow. This flow will be more easterly today, becoming increasingly southeasterly over the next several days. Lower level flow will be strong enough for patchy/areas of high dispersions inland today and Sunday. In addition, good mixing will result in minRH values less than 30% today across the upper Suwannee Valley and southeast GA today, and over far inland GA Sunday. These will trend upward for Monday onward, though still hover in the low to mid 30s of percent inland. Chances for rain will remain very low through at least mid week at this time.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog developments are expected during the overnight and early morning hours through at least the next several days, with more dense developments possible over inland areas and along the SE Georgia coast.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001

April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 52 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 60 75 64 76 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 55 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 54 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 55 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.