textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Through Tonight. High Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches. Small Craft Advisory for Offshore Waters. Isolated Tstorms Possible Over Area Waters

- Patchy Dense Fog Late Tonight through Thursday morning

- Strong Onshore Winds and Increasing Marine & Coastal Hazards Return

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High surf and high risk of rip current at local beaches - Chance of showers and slight chance of storms mainly across northeast FL this afternoon and evening - Inland fog tonight

Shower coverage will increase over the Atlantic coast this afternoon, and spread inland across north central Florida. Thunderstorm chances remain fairly low, but the best area for development would be over north central FL this afternoon and evening where the best CAPE and shear is present.

Isolated showers near the northeast Florida coast will linger through around midnight, and remain over the local waters through the night. Patchy fog will likely develop over most of southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, with areas of fog over portions of inland southeast Georgia just before sunrise.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy to areas of morning fog, some could be locally dense. - Fast Warm up; Near Record Highs Friday afternoon

Surface high pressure ridge axis will slide southward and the current coastal trough will be washed out in the process. Meanwhile aloft, rising heights and warm temperatures in the mid levels effectively cap sea breeze showers, limiting the potential for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. With sea breeze bringing in moisture, there should be patchy fog formation by daybreak Friday with higher probs of fog becoming dense across NE FL.

The upper ridge will flatten and build farther east Friday leading to another jump in temperatures from the low/mid 80s Thursday to near 90 degrees inland Friday. Given the strong gradient in temperature, a stronger thermal trough inland will drive a stronger Atlantic sea breeze inland during the afternoon Friday keeping highs at the coast in the low 80s. Due to the drying mid levels and strengthening cap, little shower activity is expected with the sea breeze as it moves westward Friday afternoon. Despite little rain and remain under the influence of deep ridging, light winds and shallow boundary layer moisture will set the stage again for a patchy fog areawide.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Gusty conditions this Weekend; Windy at the coast - Dangerous surf conditions; battering surf and rip currents - Elevated Tides for Atlantic Coast

A strong backdoor cold front powered by a robust surface high will lead to windy coastal conditions and gusty conditions areawide Saturday and Sunday. The northeasterly wind surge is expected to reach the SE GA coast around daybreak, give or take a few hours, then progressing down the NE FL coast through the rest of Saturday morning. Realistically sustained winds 25-30 mph will be possible for the beaches with gusts up to 45 mph during the afternoon hours. It's likely a Wind Advisory will be needed to highlight the coastal zones as the event gets a bit closer and if the current wind probabilities are maintained. Thought gusty winds will continue into Sunday, speeds will begin to decrease as gradients relax.

Early next week, rip currents and elevated surf will likely lead to continued beach hazards as onshore flow persists.Inverted coastal troughing will develop amid the onshore flow and may lead to a few coastal showers but no significant rain is expected through the extended period as drought conditions worsen.

Temperatures are going to trend toward normal behind the frontal passage Saturday, perhaps and then warm back to above normal as upper ridging over the Gulf expands and moves eastward during the middle part of next week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

While GNV remains briefly VFR this evening, the remainder of the terminals are already at IFR CIGS with some MVFR VSBYS and as NE winds weaken this evening, expect the stratus deck to lower to LIFR CIGS for all TAF sites in the 04-08Z time frame, with VSBYS fall to less than 1 mile at LIFR levels at GNV/VQQ and at least to IFR levels at the remainder of the terminals in the 04-08Z time frame as well. The LIFR conds will remain in place through sunrise, then slowly lift to VFR levels by the late morning and early afternoon hours in the 15-17Z time frame as East winds increase slowly to 8-10 knots. Rainfall chances remain too low for an inclusion except for some -DZ possible at SSI/SGJ this evening.

MARINE

Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected through tonight, mainly across the northeast Florida waters. High pressure will then begin to build in from the north tonight into Thursday resulting in winds lowering but seas will remain elevated and rough at times. Another cold front will enter the southeast states on Friday night, crossing our local waters by early Saturday morning. Strong high pressure will again build to the north of our area in the wake of this front, resulting in another surge of onshore winds throughout our local waters and possible Gale conditions during the weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk today today. Surf is near 5-8 ft today expected to slowly subside by tonight. High risk rip currents and high surf advisory in effect. Surf of about 3-5 ft and 2-4 ft anticipated Thursday with moderate to high risk of rip currents.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Se Ga Friday - Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Saturday Through Monday ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA - Saturday

Building high pressure will lighten winds and favor sea breeze development Thursday and Friday. Inversion aloft will cap thunderstorm potential through the end of the week. A strong backdoor cold front will push down the coast Saturday and lead to elevated Fire Danger for far inland southeast GA on Saturday. Elsewhere, gusty winds around 25-40 mph are to be expected Saturday with the stronger gusts focused at the coastal areas and barrier islands. Given the humidity staying above critical levels, Red Flag conditions are not expected at this time. Afternoon mixing heights will continue to rise through Friday leading to high dispersions, mostly for SE GA. Strong winds Saturday will then lead to widespread high dispersions.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog development tonight, Thursday night and Friday night.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Friday 3/27:

March 27th: KJAX: 90/2023 KGNV: 91/1949 KAMG: 88/2021

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 84 60 88 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 59 73 61 80 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 58 81 59 89 / 20 10 0 0 SGJ 61 78 60 83 / 30 20 0 0 GNV 58 85 59 89 / 10 20 0 0 OCF 59 85 60 88 / 10 20 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 2 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 2 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ452- 454. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ470-472- 474.