textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Fog Expected This Morning, with local visibility below 1/2 mile at times.

- Patchy Frost Inland southeast GA Tuesday Morning, and Light Freeze with Widespread Frost inland southeast GA Wednesday Morning.

- Small Craft Advisory For Most of the Area Waters This Afternoon into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Shaping up to be a better day today than on Sunday as the rain chances are much lower behind the departing weather system. Temps today will be below normal again.

As the complex low pressure system centered over the northeast Gulf to north central FL shifts east-southeast and the mid to upper level trough over the TN valley to the north Gulf pivots toward the east coast, the rain shield over the region will continue to move east and be off the northeast FL and southeast GA by about 3 AM Monday. Expecting areas of fog this morning that may be occasionally be less than 1 mile visibility mainly in southeast GA. A post-frontal surface trough will pass over the area and will be weak, but is expected to support another round of isolated to scattered showers (mainly inland zones) through the mid-day hours, but these showers should be all but gone by 1-2 pm as drier air aloft filters in on northwest winds. Mostly cloudy skies for most of the day but peeks of sun are anticipated later in the aftn.

With the mostly cloudy skies, max temps will be held in check with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 for southeast GA. and lower to mid 60s for northeast FL. North to northwest winds of about 5-12 mph expected today and decrease a bit tonight. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight with lows expected to drop to the mid to upper 30s for inland southeast GA where we have patchy frost mentioned. For rest of the forecast area, upper 30s to the mid 40s are expected tonight. Widespread wind chills Tuesday morning will be in the 30s to lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Dry weather conditions will continue through midweek with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and mild southwesterly-westerly winds as high pressure drifts further to the east. Temperatures will warm going into midweek with daytime max temps over southeast Georgia will rise from out mid to upper 50s up into the mid 60s and high temps over northeast Florida will rise from out of the lower to mid 60s up into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Overnight low temperatures will similarly increase with temps in the lower 30s rising to be in the lower to mid 40s by Wednesday. Overnight and early morning frost developments are anticipated for southeast Georgia during this period, with frost becoming more widespread by Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Chances for showers will increase on Friday as high pressure situated over the forecast area moves off to the northeast and light showers develop ahead of a cold frontal boundary pressing down from out of the northwest. High pressure conditions will return over the weekend following the frontal passage with dry and weather and clearing skies. Temperatures will drop significantly over the course of the weekend with possible freezing level temperatures anticipated for inland southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida by Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Predominantly LIFR cigs to start the TAF period with some occasional low vsby below 2SM due to mist. There may be some light drizzle or a few showers skirting west to east over the region through about 17z that may cause some fluctuations in the cigs and vsby. Cigs may gradually improve to IFR by 16z-19z, with MVFR beginning to develop around the 21z-24z time frame. However, some mix of IFR cig remains possible late afternoon into tonight, with the latest HRRR run suggesting some local areas of IFR cigs. After 00z, MVFR cigs may continue with a chance of IFR cigs returning after 06z. Predominant winds will be north-northwest around 6-12 kt through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

As an area of low pressure shifts offshore of the southeast U.S. coast early this morning, north to northwest winds will strengthen reaching small craft advisory levels this afternoon and continues into Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure will then build over the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday then shift southeast by Wednesday night as the next cold front approaches. The weak cold front is forecast to move through on Thursday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk for much of the beaches through Tuesday, with a strengthening longshore current anticipated.

HYDROLOGY

Looking at radar and surface estimates for the past ~36 hours, widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches occurred over the central parts of the area. Lower amounts occurred north of Alma and also southeast of a line from St Augustine to Ocala from about 0.6 to 1 inch. Little additional accumulations expected through noon today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 35 53 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 40 54 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 40 58 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 48 61 47 69 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 41 63 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 43 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454-470-472-474.