textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday. Tuesday Morning: Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Tuesday Midday & Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards: Gusty 40-60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes

- High Risk for Rip Currents Northeast FL Beaches Today, Moderate for Southeast GA

- Small Craft Advisory Offshore Waters Tuesday

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA Wed & Thu Mornings

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

UPDATE

No major updates for today. Mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area with radar showing likely virga with no observations so far showing any precipitation at this time. The mostly minor updates were to adjust max temps slightly down today along the coast and update the POPs for rest of today based largely on trends and guidance. Think any thunder associated with approaching mid level trough will hold off until late tonight and into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A weak front will continue to push through the local area through the morning, increasing cloud cover. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s to low 60s.

Shower potential will start off near the I-10 corridor later this morning, then spreading across most of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida through the afternoon as the front stalls near north central Florida. Thunder probabilities are low during the day on Monday. High temperatures will be pretty close to normal, upper 60s across southeast Georgia and low 70s for northeast Florida with heavy cloud cover and onshore winds.

Overnight, a stronger frontal system will approach from the northwest, increasing isolated storm chances after midnight, especially for inland southeast Georgia and over the local waters. Higher storm coverage / strong storm potential will increase after daybreak.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Showers with isolated thunderstorms will bring needed rainfall Tuesday, with the potential for a few stronger storms mainly across northeast Florida Tuesday morning into the afternoon where higher, although limited, surface based instability will reside. A more widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will move across southeast Georgia through Tuesday morning as a broad surface low moves from the Gulf toward the northeast along the cold front. Farther south across northeast Florida, showers and isolated storms will move inland from the Gulf across the Suwannee River Valley preceding the surface cold front after daybreak Tuesday morning and expand eastward toward the Atlantic coast into the afternoon.

A dry slot of mid level air across northeast FL will enable more surface heating compared to SE GA ahead of this front, with latest HREF advertising MUCAPE 400-700 J/kg peaking across the Suwannee River Valley toward the SE GA Golden Isles Tuesday morning (after 7 am) and shifting eastward toward the northeast FL Atlantic coast through about 2 pm, coincident with about 35-45 kts of bulk shear and strong 850 mb winds of 40-50 kts. Although stronger shear will exist across southeast GA, the lack of instability will limit strong to severe thunderstorm risk. The stronger to isolated severe storm risk will be across NE FL, especially the Suwannee Rive Valley, Tuesday morning and toward the NE FL Atlantic coast through early afternoon. The stronger storm threats will be localized damaging winds of 40-60 mph and isolated tornadoes. As dynamics lift out the northeast into late Tuesday afternoon, precipitation will further decrease in coverage across northeast and north-central FL as the front presses farther south of the area into Tuesday evening. In addition to strong gusts from thunderstorms, non-convective wind gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible at times across northeast FL, below local Wind Advisory criterion.

Needed wetting rainfall is expected with this system, with accumulations of 0.5 to 1.0 inches across inland southeast GA to less than 0.25" south and southeast of JAX to Gainesville. Although these accumulations will put a very minor divot in local fall season deficits, this rain event is just the first wave of a general pattern shift with what looks to be a wetter weekend in store.

Dry conditions are expected Tue night through Wed night as high pressure builds northwest then north of the region, with a weak pressure pattern in place. Main weather impact this period will be inland patchy to areas of frost across southeast GA, with the better coverage Wed night/Thu morning due to near calm winds.

Temperatures will trend above normal Tuesday in the warm sector in the 70s to near 80, while north of the warm front near the Altamaha and Ocmulgee River basins highs will near normal in the mid to upper 60s. Trailing the front, highs will fall back to near to below normal Wednesday and generally range in the 60s with some mid/upper 50s across inland SE GA.

Overnight lows plummet Tuesday night into the mid/upper 30s across SE GA to the 40s across NE FL by sunrise Wednesday, but light winds will keep wind chills above cold weather advisory criteria. Even colder Wednesday night into Thu morning, with more widespread inland frost expected as lows fall into the mid 30s across inland SE GA and Suwannee River Valley to the 40s toward the Atlantic coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Dry and seasonably cool Wednesday and Thursday with inland frost potential across SE GA both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning with weak high pressure dominating north of the region.

Rain chances return late Friday with a warm-up as a warm front lifts across the area ahead of the next approaching cold front. Latest model guidance is showing a similar scenario with a Gulf Low tracking NE along the approaching cold front brining more widespread rainfall across SE GA Friday night into Saturday, with more scattered showers and storms across northeast FL as the front slows its approach toward NE FL and begins to stall/linger somewhere across the southern region into the weekend. This scenario would bring periods of needed rainfall. Mild temperatures expected from above normal on Friday to near to below normal highs into the weekend with cloud cover and passing showers. General drying trend late Sunday into Monday with rainfall shifting south of the area and high pressure building to the north with cooler temperatures near to just below climo early next week.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

VFR mid to high clouds at this time but increased chances of MVFR cigs expected for the coastal TAFs but the 15z to 19z time frame as the northeast winds bring in low level moisture. By 18z to 20z, we have the lower MVFR ceilings impacting SSI and the Duval sites. After about 00Z Tuesday towards the end of this TAF period, most of the TAF sites should see MVFR to IFR ceilings as a stronger front approaches. Rain chances come up to about 20-30 percent toward the end of the TAF period for all TAFs except SGJ so PROB30 groups are in place.

MARINE

A cold front will move south southeast across area today. The front will lift back north across area as a warm front late tonight, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf. As this low tracks northeast across the southeastern states, a cold front will move through Tuesday. A round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected, beginning early Tuesday morning.

Rip Currents: For Today, high risk for northeast FL, and moderate for southeast GA. For Tuesday, moderate risk is posted.

FIRE WEATHER

A weak front will move south of the area today with a low chance of passing showers and breezy northeast winds at the coast. This front will then lift back north as a warm front tonight, trailed by increasing south winds and rain chances ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and isolated strong thunderstorms will move across the area Tuesday, brining widespread wetting rainfall to most of southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida, with lower rainfall amounts toward north-central Florida. Breezy southwest winds are expected outside of thunderstorm activity Tuesday, mainly across northeast Florida. Rainfall will end Tuesday evening as the front presses south of the area. Dry conditions are expected by Wednesday with lower humidity under north winds, but lower dispersion due to weak transport winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Gusty and erratic winds will occur from thunderstorm activity Tuesday. Some rainfall is expected, but lightning strikes may cause wildfires due to dry fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 67 34 59 / 80 90 10 0 SSI 59 73 43 61 / 60 70 0 0 JAX 60 77 42 65 / 50 70 0 0 SGJ 64 79 49 66 / 30 50 0 0 GNV 62 79 46 67 / 40 80 0 0 OCF 63 79 49 68 / 30 70 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-474.