textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Nor'easter Conditions through Saturday. Life- threatening Rip Currents and Surf Zone Conditions. Minor Tidal Flooding Today and Saturday for the Atlantic Coast. Elevated tides in the St Johns River through the Weekend. Minor Beach Erosion Possible through Saturday. Small Craft Advisories through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

-Potential for coastal flooding around times of high tide along the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River Basin

-Elevated onshore winds and dangerous rip current/surf conditions

Gusty northeasterly winds continue to be on a downward trend through today, but we still expect wind gusts around 20-25 mph along the east coast and St. Johns River Basin. Heavy cloud cover this morning and dry, northerly steering flow is keeping high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s today, with pleasant dewpoints in the 50s to 60s. Tonight, low temperatures will fall into the low 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor Tidal Flooding Likely within the St. Johns River Basin.

- High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend

- Much Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected

Winds will begin to relax over the weekend as the sharp gradient in response to the strong Nor'easter low pressure system begins to relax locally as weak high pressure develops over the region. A strong and very dry northwesterly aloft will bringing wall-to-wall sunshine through Saturday. Though winds slacken, lingering onshore breeziness and elevated surf will continue a high risk of strong rip currents through the weekend. Cannot rule out continue minor tidal flooding along the banks of the St Johns river through the weekend due to lingering effects of the reverse flow event.

A stable airmass remains in place through Sunday, though increasing moisture and shortwave rounding the base of the broad upper trough will spread bouts of cirrus overhead.

After a few pleasantly cool fall-like days, temperatures will begin to rebound back toward low 80s Saturday and then the mid 80s for highs on Sunday. As winds relax, low temperatures will fall into the mid 50s under clear skies but then warm Sunday as warming southwesterly flow develops.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor Tidal Flooding potentially lingering within the St Johns river through early next week.

- Return to warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances during the mid to late week period.

Initially dry weather conditions will be in place on Monday with chances for showers and storms gradually increasing mid to late week as high pressure ridging from out of the east adjusts the prevailing flow to become more southerly, resulting in the drier air over the region being gradually replaced by more moist maritime air from out of the south by the latter part of the week. Temperatures will experience a warning trend through the week, rising to be above the seasonal average by the end of the period with max temps rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

MARINE

Low pressure strengthening to the northeast today will track further to the north through the end of the weekend as high pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the southeast states. The gradient between high pressure and a front to the south trailing the low to the northeast will keep elevated winds and seas over the area waters through tonight before slowly diminishing Saturday into Saturday night, resulting in enhanced northeasterly winds and waves lasting through Tonight. Small Craft conditions for the offshore waters will continue through Saturday evening. These conditions ease Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure weakens and the low pressure area lifts further away from the area.

Rip Currents: There will be several days of strong and dangerous rip currents with an elevated risk through the upcoming weekend. Additionally, elevated north northeasterly winds will continue to produce breakers up to 5-9 feet through this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Over the weekend a dry airmass will push across the area and lower afternoon humidity to at least 30% for several inland districts Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Gusty northerly surface and transport winds will continue Today area-wide, with decreasing cloud cover and rising mixing heights yielding good daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly on Saturday, with breezy conditions persisting at coastal locations. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide. Winds will become light and turn westerly through Sunday. Warming temperatures and rising humidity levels are expected through next week with winds favoring the diurnal Atlantic sea breeze regime.

Fog Potential...Significant fog formation unlikely the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon that occurs on Saturday. Breezy north-northeasterly onshore winds along coastal locations will persist through this evening and combine with these increasing astronomical tides to create minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast. Water levels have already peaked during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) from Thursday evening's and Friday morning's high tides and are forecast to peak again near 2 feet MHHW for the upcoming high tide cycles this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 82 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 81 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 59 81 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 65 81 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 59 83 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 61 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ125-132- 137-225-325-633. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for GAZ154- 166. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ452-454- 470. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ472-474.