textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Continue into the Weekend. - Practice Wildfire Prevention and Avoid Activities with open flames or sparks. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality Check airnow.gov for current levels.

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues Nearly Area-Wide

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible This Weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Elevated Fire Danger Across Inland Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley Due to the Combination of Low Humidity and Breezy Winds This Afternoon.

- Dense Smoke Advisory through 10 PM for Clinch & Echols Counties. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality Check airnow.gov for current levels

Afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1026 millibars) centered along the southeastern seaboard. Aloft...a weakening shortwave embedded in a mostly zonal flow pattern was traversing our region, providing a veil of mostly mid and high altitude cloud cover across our area. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that moisture levels were slowly increasing across northeast and north central FL, where PWAT values were climbing to around 1 inch, which has aided in the development of a cumulus field. A slightly drier air mass remains in place across southeast GA, where PWATs were around 0.75 inches and a flatter cumulus field exits from the Okefenokee Swamp southward to the FL/GA border. Intense and growing wildfires were noted on visible and infrared satellite imagery over Echols and Clinch Counties in southeast GA (Pineland Road Wildfire, which is estimated to be almost 16,500 acres as of earlier this morning) as well as the Highway 82 Wildfire just east of the Satilla River in eastern Brantley County (estimated to be around 5,000 acres earlier this morning). Multi-layered cloudiness was keeping inland temperatures generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s as of 19Z, where dewpoints were generally falling through the 40s, except lower 50s across north central FL. Onshore winds at coastal locations were keeping temperatures generally in the mid 70s as of 19Z, with dewpoints remaining in the 50s.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will continue moving east- southeastward across our region while filling overnight, moving offshore on Thursday morning. Mid and high altitude cloud cover will thin out this evening and overnight from northwest to southeast, and surface ridging along the southeastern seaboard will also gradually weaken through Thursday. Low level moisture will remain too scant to produce anything other than virga from the multi-layered cloud cover associated with the passing shortwave trough this afternoon and evening. The big concern overnight will be smoke, haze, and possibly some radiation fog that may overspread a large portion of our region during the predawn and early morning hours on Thursday. The lowest visibilities should be localized near the larger ongoing wildfires, but air quality is likely to worsen overnight as surface winds decouple. As a reminder - please monitor AirNow.gov for current air quality index levels. Strong subsidence and clearing skies overnight will allow inland lows to fall to the low and mid 50s, ranging to the upper 50s to around 60 at coastal locations.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry & warm conditions will persist elevated fire danger Thursday and Friday

- Dense smoke can be expected near wildfire locations during the overnight and early morning hours

No significant chances to the overall pattern through at least the end of the work week, as weak high pressure will continue to be centered east of the region. A general southeasterly flow will continue to strengthen diurnally each day, though only marginally improving the amount of low level moisture through the next several days with very little in the way of rain chances. Hi res guidance does hint at the potential for a few isolated showers as the sea breeze moves inland both Thursday & Friday, though these chances are generally less than 10 percent and therefore have left out of the forecast given the ongoing drought conditions and PWATs generally around an inch or less.

The main concern for the short term period will continue to be air quality/smoke across portions of the region, especially over inland GA where two of the largest active wildfires persist. Smoke and air quality concerns will continue to be highest during the overnight and early morning hours daily as winds die down and smoke settles. Thankfully, fog potential for Thursday through Saturday Mornings is low at this time, though cannot rule out some very patchy fog and "superfog" near any active wildfires.

Temps will continue to moderate daily, especially inland where mostly mid 80s Thursday will bump into the upper 80s by Friday. Near/east of the I-95 corridor, upper 70s to low 80s Thursday elevate to the low to mid 80s for Friday. Overnight lows range from the mid 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms this weekend/early next week, especially over interior SE GA

-Above normal temperatures continue through the period

-Elevated wildfire risk continues due to isolated storm activity

The long term period looks to overall be more active as compared to the last week or so. A frontal boundary will move across central/south GA Saturday, stalling near the area Saturday Night and Sunday before lifting back north and northeast on Monday as another frontal system takes shape across the Plain States, progressing another front towards our area sometime around Tuesday and Tuesday Night. The moral of the story will be that the highest chances for rainfall as well as t'storm potential will generally across southeast GA during the more active period as the cool fronts weaken and lose progress further south and east. However, enough moisture as well as a few waves of energy aloft will bring at least periodic chances for rainfall through most of the long term even into northeast FL, possibly enhanced by the daily sea breeze as temperatures trend above normal.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through around 05Z Thursday. Smoke and potentially some pockets of fog are expected to impact most of the terminals during the predawn and early morning hours on Thursday. Confidence was high enough to indicate periods of IFR visibilities at VQQ beginning around 07Z as mid and high altitude cloud cover begins to exit our region. Confidence was only high enough to indicate MVFR visibility restrictions at the rest of the terminals, mainly after 09Z. These visibility restrictions should improve to VFR by 14Z at the northeast FL terminals, with MVFR or possibly lower visibilities at SSI due to smoke and haze potentially continuing through around 16Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary should then push smoke and haze inland and away from the SSI terminal by 17Z. Surface winds will trend to an east- southeasterly direction at the regional terminals by 21Z, with sustained speeds increasing to around 10 knots. Surface winds will shift to southeast to southerly after 00Z with diminishing speeds. Light southwesterly surface winds will then develop after 13Z, with winds shifting to easterly and increasing to around 10 knots by 17Z Thursday as the Atlantic sea breeze boundary pushes inland.

MARINE

High pressure situated along the southeastern seaboard will gradually weaken and shift southeastward through Friday night. Southeasterly winds will increase across the near shore waters each afternoon through Saturday behind the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze, with winds shifting to southerly during the early evening hours and then southwesterly after midnight. A frontal boundary will sink into the southeastern states by Saturday evening, with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible on Saturday afternoon ahead of this boundary. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday night and Sunday as this front stalls near the Georgia waters. This front will then lift northward early next week ahead of another front that will approach our local waters towards the middle portion of next week.

Rip Currents:

A moderate risk of rip currents will likely continue through through the weekend at the northeast FL beaches, where onshore winds will strengthen each afternoon, with surf heights of 2-4 feet. A moderate risk is also expected to continue at the southeast GA beaches through at least Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TODAY FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA

- Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Through Thursday

- Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Saturday

Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist across the region through at least Friday with high pressure in place. Elevated mixing heights approaching 10 kft inland will result in patchy high dispersions through at least Thursday. There will be a slight improvement daily with respect to minimum daytime RH area-wide, though still averaging in the 25 to 35 percent range inland and towards 40 to 50% closer to the coast with very dry fuels remaining in place. The next notable chance for rain will be Saturday Night and Sunday, though unfortunately bringing t'storm chances as well.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog potential will be very low over the next several mornings, though any very patchy fog that does form could result in very localized "superfog".

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 25: JAX 92/1958, CRG 91/2006, GNV 93/1896, AMG 91/1958

April 26: JAX 92/2011, CRG 91/1989, GNV 93/1908, AMG 93/1986

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 55 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 58 79 61 82 / 0 10 0 10 GNV 55 86 57 88 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 55 85 59 87 / 0 10 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ162- 163. MARINE...None.