textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Potential Through the Weekend. Main Impact Areas: Inland counties including I-75 corridor.

- Cold Weather Returns Early Next Week. Inland Freezes Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night.

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Early Next Week. Small Craft Advisory Monday & Tuesday.

- High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough Surf on possible Tuesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry weather will continue through today and tonight as high pressure ridging shifts slightly southward by tonight resulting in more westerly prevailing flow over the region. Foggy conditions are expected to develop overnight and into the early morning hours leading into Friday with denser areas of fog more likely to occur over inland areas. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the upper 70s and even into the lower 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 50s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Fairly stagnant and tranquil weather through this period as a deep layer high pressure centered over the Gulf slowly eases eastward toward the FL peninsula. Mean layer flow in the low levels remains westerly keep things dry and warm. A mid to upper level impulse will push into the MS Valley and the Great Lakes on late Sat into early Sunday helping to increase ridging over the area.

Overall, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies this period but again warmer than normal temps expected for late December. We probably won't meet record highs, but high temps in the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees are in store for both Friday and Saturday. Lows only in the 50s expected.

With light winds during the overnight periods and low level moisture source from the Gulf, the one hazard of concern is morning fog, which may be dense in a number of inland areas Friday morning, Saturday morning and early Sunday morning. Dense fog advisories cannot be ruled out by any means. Most favored locations for dense fog will be the I-75 corridor and far southeast inland GA counties but all counties have potential for fog.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mean layer high pressure system will be due south of the area over the FL Peninsula on Sunday ensuring a warm and dry day again. This system will translate eastward as a progressive trough advances to the east coast by Tuesday. A strong cold front will march through early next week, bringing an arctic blast to the area Monday afternoon through Monday night. Ahead of the front for Sunday will be the warmest day so far with highs around 80 or in the lower 80s nearing or possibly reaching daily record values.

Some rather weak convection will be possible over the north half of the zones Monday, but otherwise a mostly dry cold front will pass through the area. The arctic airmass will plunge temps into the area starting Monday night and allow for multiple days of below normal temps. Tuesday night and Wednesday night look to be the coldest nights with low temps in the upper 20s inland to 30 and mid to upper 30s toward the coast. Temps will moderate by Thursday as sfc high pressure settles over the area and then thicknesses rise as the eastern U.S. trough moves off to the northeast.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through today and into tonight with winds becoming more mild and variable overnight and then building from out of the west by the end of the forecast period. Overnight and early morning fog developments are anticipated by around 06z-07z and clearing out by around 14z, with more dense developments occurring over GNV and VQQ.

MARINE

High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Sunday. A strong cold front will move southeast across area Monday into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory level conditions will be possible early in the week due to this frontal passage. High pressure will build from the northwest mid week.

Rip Currents: Generally, low risk of rip currents through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will be mostly situated to the west or southwest of the region through the rest of the week, which will yield a west to northwesterly flow across the forecast area. Fair to good dispersions are anticipated over the next few days. Temperatures will remain above normal and the dry weather will persist into Saturday.

A cold front will move through early next week, possibly featuring chances for rain. A dry and cooler airmass expected behind the front, starting on Tuesday.

Nightly patchy fog will be possible, especially inland through the weekend. The most favorable location for fog development will be the Suwannee River Valley.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 75 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 55 73 56 73 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 54 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 55 78 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 53 79 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 53 78 53 77 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.