textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend and Next Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Wind Gusts of 30-40 mph at Coastal Locations from late today through Monday. Gale Warning for All Atlantic Coastal Waters from mid-morning today through Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Along the Atlantic Coast, ICWW & St. Johns River Basin is possible. Minor to Moderate Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- Gusty winds, especially along the coast

Cold front will pass to the southeast of the area this morning. A few showers will possible along the front itself, with showers possibly behind the front due to an upper low digging into the southeastern US. As strong surface high pressure builds behind the front, a surge of winds is expected to move down the coastal waters. While winds will be elevated and gusty inland, they will be higher along the coast. At this time, gusts are expected to remain below wind advisory levels.

A cooler and drier airmass will advect south into area behind the front, with temperatures below average Today and Tonight.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate to strong north to northeast winds expected with gusts to around 30-40 mph Sunday into Monday. Strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas.

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue into mid week with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding.

- Below normal temperatures this period.

A tight pressure gradient remains over the region this period with the strong high pressure system around 1036 mb initially located over the northeast U.S. while a well-defined non- tropical develops over the western Atlantic east of the Carolinas. The high will begin to weaken a bit by Monday and the low pressure off the east coast shifts slightly northward; therefore, we may see a slight weakening of the northeast flow by mid to late Monday time frame. For Sunday, moderate to strong north- northeast winds expected at least for the coastal areas with winds of about 15-25 mph gusting up to 30-40 mph, with diminishing winds inland. Wind advisory conditions (for gusts of 40+mph ) are possible for the coast and St Johns River area on Sunday, and mainly confined along the coast for Monday. In both days, the northeast FL coast has better chances of seeing wind advisory than the southeast GA coast. Still quite dry airmass for most areas, but there will be enough low level moisture and low level convergence along the coast for isolated to widely scattered shower activity for northeast FL east of highway 301 from Sunday through Monday.

For max temps on Sunday, temps will only be in the mid to upper 60s for southeast GA (about 13-14 degrees below normal) with upper 60s to lower to mid 70s for northeast FL. Pretty large difference in lows Sunday night with upper 40s to lower 50s well inland southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley, whereas mid 50s to mid 60s for St Johns River Basin and the coastal areas. Veering flow will modify the airmass a bit going into Monday with max temps for most areas in the 70s. Lows Monday night range from upper 40s to around 50 well inland southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley to mid 50s to lower 60s for the rest of the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty coastal winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected Tuesday through Friday

Through much of this period, persistent onshore flow continues as a result of the high pressure ridge anchored to the north of the area and the coastal low/northeaster off the east coast of the Carolinas and the northeastern U.S. This will keep the coastal hazards going across the region, including high rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, and minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast and the St Johns River basin. Weather for the inland areas will stay dry with only a slight chance of a shower for the coastal zones. But otherwise, expecting mostly clear skies for the entire area outside of a few areas of enhanced convergence and associated low clouds along the northeast FL coast. High temperature will range from the mid to upper 70s, with fairly cool overnight lows in the 50s to the lower 60s. These temps will be a few degrees below normal.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected this period.

A cold front will move southeast across the area early this morning. Winds will pick up following the frontal passage, especially following sunrise. Elevated and gusty winds will then continue throughout the remainder of this 06z TAF period. A few showers are possible along and just behind the front, but these showers will be isolated.

MARINE

A cold front will move southeast across the area this morning, with strong high pressure building behind it. An area of low pressure is expected to develop to the northeast of the region over the weekend. The gradient between high pressure, and the low will produce an elevated flow across area waters. Gale Force winds will develop this afternoon, and continue into early next week.

Rip Currents: High Risk through at least Monday, and possibly through much of next week. Rough surf is also expected.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions This Weekend - Elevated nighttime dispersion along the coast tonight and Sunday night

A strong but mostly dry cold front moves through tonight and through Saturday morning, ushering in a dry and windy north to northeasterly flow this weekend and into early next week. This will result in good dispersions this weekend, which could be high at times during the afternoon/evening in some patchy areas. Dispersions will also be elevated near the coastline each night this weekend thanks to persistent breezy onshore flow. This general pattern will continue, albeit become a bit weaker, for much of next week.

Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and throughout the St. Johns River basin beginning on Sunday afternoon and likely continuing through at least the middle portion of next week. The bigger problem may be significant beach erosion at area beaches around times of high tide at the northeast FL beaches beginning on Sunday, where breakers will build to the 8-10 foot range, with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Minor to moderate beach erosion will be possible around times of high tide at the southeast GA beaches, especially from late Sunday through Tuesday, where breakers will likely build to the 5-7 foot range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 69 49 66 49 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 73 57 70 57 / 10 0 10 0 JAX 73 57 69 57 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 75 64 73 65 / 20 20 30 20 GNV 74 56 72 56 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 75 59 74 59 / 20 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through late Monday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.