textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

- Elevated Fire Danger Possible Tuesday through Thursday

- Breezy with Scattered TStorms on Thursday Afternoon & Evening. Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Across Southeast GA

- Expansive, Historic Drought Conditions Continue for Most Areas

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry with cooler than normal temperatures this period.

High pressure ridge will build south across the area through Tonight. Mainly clear skies will prevail Tonight.

Temperatures will be below normal through Tonight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry Weather with Warming Temperatures

- Elevated Fire Danger Possible at Inland Locations on Tuesday Afternoon

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

Rather weak high pressure will be elongated across the region on Monday, though start to shift more east/northeast of the Florida Peninsula throughout the day and through Tuesday. This will keep conditions dry, though also shift the flow more towards the east to southeast accordingly as well. With the wind shift accompanied by some rises in heights aloft, temperatures will moderate each day, with highs mainly in the low to mid 80s inland Monday and mid to upper 80s by Tuesday with more sunshine than clouds, especially the further north and west you go. By the coast, temps will be a few degrees cooler with a stronger sea breeze component as the pressure gradient will not be very strong. This will also keep the risk for rip currents at least on the moderate side. A stray shower will be possible as the sea breeze moves inland on Tuesday with a slightly more moist onshore flow, but chances are generally 10% or less at this time.

Outside of the fair weather with respect to the public forecast, the only other concerns for the short term will be with respect to fire weather conditions. Even despite some of the much needed rain that was just received, drought conditions continue and the dry air mass will keep fire danger elevated, especially inland.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Hot & Breezy Wednesday and Thursday

- Shower & T'storm Chances Return Thursday, Especially for Southeast GA

- Slightly Cooler Late Week with Scattered Shower Potential for Northeast FL

High pressure will shift further south and east of the region on Wednesday as the next front approaches from the north Wednesday Night, likely moving across southeast GA Thursday and Thursday Night before slowing progress near or south of northeast FL Counties on Friday with weakening also likely. High pressure tries to build in from the north behind the front, but as of now it looks fairly weak and ridging doesn't look to make it much further than southern GA, and therefore at least slight chances for showers and t'storms are likely to continue across northeast FL late week where the warmest temps and best moisture remains in place closer to wherever the frontal boundary ultimately sets up/lingers. Temperatures will be above climo for Wednesday and Thursday area-wide, dropping overall closer to normal for Friday and into the start of next week with more of a north/south gradient likely.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

High pressure ridge will be in place over region through Monday.

Prevailing VFR conditions this period, except for some potential MVFR VSBYS at VQQ in the 07-11Z. East winds increasing to around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots during the Monday afternoon hours.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will prevail across the area through Wednesday. A cold front will move southeast across region Thursday into Thursday night. A round of thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage. High pressure will build again for Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents:

Breezy north-northeasterly winds and building surf will create a higher end moderate risk across northeast FL beaches Today. Persistent onshore winds early next week will keep a higher end moderate risk in place at area beaches, with a high risk possible towards midweek at the northeast FL beaches as southeasterly winds strengthen.

FIRE WEATHER

- Near Critically Low Humidity Values Inland On Monday

MARGINALLY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST - On Monday Afternoon

- High Dispersions Inland Each Afternoon Tuesday Through Thursday

Dry weather is expected to prevail area-wide through Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. With the drier airmass behind the recent front, very good mixing inland each day through Wednesday will result in minRH near critically low values during the afternoon and evening, as well as an overall increase in daytime dispersions each day. Flow will be generally our of the north to northeast today to nearly variable but still gusty over inland GA, becoming increasing more east to southeasterly through Wednesday. The next frontal boundary to affect the area will approach Wednesday Night, bring chances of rain mainly for southeast GA on Thursday with lower chances across northeast FL as the front weakens Thursday Night and into Friday. Thunderstorms will also be possible with the front, especially north of about the I-10 corridor.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for:

Wed, May 6: JAX: 96/2012 CRG: 96/2012 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 95/2012

Thu, May 7: JAX: 94/1977 CRG: 94/1977 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 93/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 47 82 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 60 76 64 78 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 52 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 59 79 61 83 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 52 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 55 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.