textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today at the Northeast FL Beaches. Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches. Moderate Risk this Weekend through Monday at All Area Beaches

- Patchy Fog Possible Inland Early on Saturday & Sunday Mornings

- Unseasonably Dry with a Gradual Warming Trend through Monday

- Gradually Increasing Chances for Showers & Thunderstorms from

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier Than Normal Conditions Continue - Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents At Area Beaches

Dry conditions continue with surface high pressure over GA/SC shifts eastward off the coast of the southeastern seaboard. Subsidence and PWATs less than an inch will suppress convection through tonight. High temps will run mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spots in the low 90s possible towards the Suwannee River Valley area. Some high clouds look to stick around tonight which brings some uncertainty regarding radiational cooling despite light to near calm winds, though still opted to go a bit below most guidance given the drier than usual conditions continuing. Overnight lows will range from the low-mid 60s inland to the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast and St Johns river basin. Some patchy fog will also be possible inland in the pre-dawn hours.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy Fog Possible Early on Saturday and Sunday Mornings at Inland Locations.

- Unseasonably Dry Conditions with Inland Temperatures Warming to the Low and Mid 90s this Weekend.

Dry weather pattern persists over the weekend as High pressure remains centered near Bermuda, with its western axis extending over the FL peninsula. Southeasterly flow this weekend will continue to bring breezy, gusty at times, conditions along the coast behind the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze during the afternoon hours each day. With the continuing onshore flow, coastal locations will be relatively cooler than inland locations. Daytime Highs in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, with lower to mid 90s across inland locations. Temperatures will a bit warmer on Sunday area-wide. Even with the warmer temperatures over the area, heat index values are expected to remain in the 90s. During the evening hours, Saturday will have the cooler temperatures as inland locations will be in the mid 60s with lower 70s along the coast. Warmer temperatures on Sunday evening with Lows in the 70s area-wide. With light winds during the overnight hours, patchy fog will be possible over inland locations.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Unseasonably Dry Weather Continues on Monday.

- Breezy Onshore Winds Redevelop on Tuesday and Wednesday, Increasing the Threat for Rip Currents at Area Beaches.

- Gradually Increasing Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday.

Dry conditions will persist at the start of the upcoming week with high pressure shifting towards the Gulf ahead of a backdoor cold front pushing south along the east coast. PWATs begin to increase ahead of the cold front, with isolated to scattered chances of showers and storms developing by Tuesday as the front begins to push south through the area. Behind the front, a period of breezy onshore winds develop through midweek as high pressure strengthens along the eastern seaboard. PWATs continue to rise to the 1.5" to 1.8" range by midweek, with scattered chances of showers and storms will be likely during the afternoon hours on Wednesday and Thursday with the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for this period. Generally east winds 5-10 kts continue through at least 01Z. Winds will subside again tonight. Patchy fog may develop at GNV and VQQ early Saturday morning. ESE winds 5-10 kts develop after 15Z.

MARINE

High pressure centered over our local waters this morning will shift eastward this afternoon, with this feature becoming centered near Bermuda by late Saturday. A cold front will shift southward towards our area on Tuesday, possibly bringing widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to our local waters. High pressure will briefly strengthen along the Mid-Atlantic coast in the wake of this frontal passage, with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard, providing for breezy onshore winds from Tuesday through Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible late next week as moisture levels gradually increase.

Rip Currents: High Risk will continue across northeast FL beaches today where the most lingering effects of onshore flow continue. Risk will be a "high end" moderate for southeast GA beaches. Surf heights will drop towards the 3-4 foot range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Unseasonably Dry Weather Expected Through Monday

An unseasonably dry air mass will remain in place across our area through early next week, limiting chances for rainfall. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 30 percent at inland locations each afternoon through Sunday, with values only slowly recovering on Monday. Elevated mixing heights will continue this weekend through Monday, but gradually decreasing transport winds will yield generally good daytime dispersion values at inland locations, with fair values at coastal locations, where breezy onshore winds will develop each afternoon following the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours through the weekend at inland locations. Widespread dense fog is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 62 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 73 85 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 64 89 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 70 87 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 64 92 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 65 91 69 94 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.