textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Thunderstorms this Afternoon and early Evening. Main Area of Concern: I-95 Corridor and the Beaches. Strong gusts around 40 mph, Localized Flooding, and Periods of Lightning

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches Today

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms through Next Week. Widespread 3-5 Rainfall Totals Forecast through next Wednesday, with

- Localized Totals in Excess of 6 Possible. Daily, Marginal Risk of Flooding, especially in Urban and Flood-Prone Areas

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, with a few strong storms possible

A round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop and move northeast across the region this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be possible. The coverage of the storms will decrease late this evening, with a mainly dry night forecast. Lows Tonight will be above average.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Numerous to widespread thunderstorms each day with potential for localized flooding, mainly along the I-95 corridor

Southwesterly-westerly flow over the region will bring in tropical moisture from the Gulf. The Gulf breeze will be the dominant of the two sea breezes during the period, directing showers/storms to push across the area from east to west, with sea breeze merges along the the I-95 corridor and Atlantic coast. The increased moisture will likely lead to the development of numerous to widespread showers/storms to develop as periods of heavy downpours are possible. Localized flooding will be also of concern for any slow- moving storms or if training of storms develop. Daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, but come Saturday highs are expected to remain in the 80s with the increased cloud cover and showers/storms. Overnight Lows in the 70s across NE FL, with the upper 60s across SE GA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Expected to Continue, with Beneficial Rainfall Totals Forecast Area-Wide.

- Clouds and Cooler Temperatures Expected Early Next Week.

A cold front begins to push into the area during the overnight hours from Saturday to Sunday, and likely begin to stall over north central FL Sunday Night, remaining through Monday. Showers and storms development along the boundary is expected on Sunday as it pushes through the area. With uncertainty in timing and location of where the front begins to stall, the forecast continues to call for numerous to widespread chances of precipitation heading into the upcoming week. But as mentioned in the previous discussion: Main concerns will still be heavy rain, especially with potential training around the frontal boundary as it stalls.

Temperatures will moderate toward the middle part of next week with temperatures in the low/mid 80s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Significant chances for restrictions this afternoon and evening, as convection increases in coverage and moves through. Convection will dissipate later this evening. Restrictions in stratus and fog are forecast for Tonight, and showers may linger through the night at KSSI. Convection will initiate during the late morning hours on Friday.

MARINE

High pressure will continue to move away to the southeast Today, as high pressure builds to the northwest.

A frontal system will be near or over the area from Friday through the middle of next week. Due to the proximity of this front, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected.

Rip Currents: SE GA: Low Today, Moderate Friday NE FL: Moderate Today, Low Friday

FIRE WEATHER

Southwesterly winds through the end of the week and into the weekend will allow for the Gulf breeze to push further inland during the afternoon to evening hours, with convective activity pushing towards I-95 and the Atlantic coast. With increased moisture coming from the Gulf on westerly transport flow, widespread waves of downpours are forecast area-wide into the weekend, which may be followed by a late season cool front early next week. No low humidity concerns or fire weather threats are expected through the weekend. Could see Poor to Fair dispersions develop Friday afternoon across locations in interior SE GA and on Sunday afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic winds and heavy downpours are expected during periods of thunderstorms over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 69 83 68 84 / 50 80 60 80 SSI 74 84 73 87 / 60 70 40 80 JAX 72 87 71 89 / 50 80 50 80 SGJ 73 88 73 89 / 40 70 30 70 GNV 72 90 72 88 / 20 80 30 70 OCF 73 88 73 86 / 20 50 20 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.