textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents through the Weekend

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer Friday through next Week. Elevated Wildfire Danger returns this weekend

- Fog Developments Early this Morning and Sunday Morning

UPDATE

Not much change to the ongoing forecast with a few sprinkles centered near Flagler county and also offshore, where the best moisture is located. This very isolated activity will weaken through the day with chances of about 10-15 percent at best. Early this morning, patchy fog is lingering from just north of JAX metro to coastal GA and will dissipate within the hour. Otherwise, waking up to cool temps in the 45-50 degree range over northern zones with 50s toward the south zones. Partly cloudy skies over parts of our FL zones with stratocu and some cirrus. Some of these clouds will diminish through the day with mostly sunny to sunny skies (~10-20 percent sky cover) eventually developing all zones this afternoon. Main updates were to reflect the cool temps this morning and also nudge down the temps tonight a bit. Still some chance of patchy fog again tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Currents continues at NE FL/SE GE beaches

- Locally dense fog around sunrise over inland areas

Early this morning: Still expect a few light sprinkles over the Atlantic Coastal waters in the slow weakening of NE flow, otherwise still on track for locally dense fog from JAX to Brunswick along the I-95, US-17 and US 301 highway corridors around sunrise as temps bottom out in the 50s over inland areas, and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast.

Today: High pressure ridge holds in place just north of the region with E-NE steering flow, but not as breezy as previous days as E-NE winds generally in the 10-15G20-25 mph across NE FL, strongest at the NE FL beaches and 5-10G15 mph across SE GA. Skies generally partly to mostly sunny with temps pushing to slightly above normal levels inland with highs in the lower/middle 80s, while the onshore flow will hold Max temps around 80F along the I-95 corridor and mid/upper 70s at Atlantic beaches. While a few sprinkles are still possible over the Atlantic Coastal waters and along the NE FL beaches, measurable rainfall chances remain below 20% today.

Tonight: Not much change as high pressure ridge axis remains north of the region with a light onshore flow continuing. Mostly clear with near calm winds developing over inland areas along with locally dense fog potential towards sunrise along the US-17 and US-301 highway corridors. Min temps still in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warmer temperatures, clearing skies, and dry weather - Inland Late Night/Early Morning Fog

Dry weather conditions along with clearing skies and breezy diurnal easterly winds will be in place through the end of the weekend and into Monday as high pressure settles into being the dominant feature over the region. Potential for late night and early morning fog developments during this period. Daily high temperatures for this weekend will rise into the lower to mid 80s over inland areas and into the mid 70s for areas along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 50s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 60s near the shoreline.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Temperatures trending to above seasonal norms during the upcoming week

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the region through next week with dry weather conditions persisting through into the weekend. Prevailing flow will become less uniform by midweek as the center of rotation drifts in over north Florida. Warming trend will continue through next week with daily high temps rising to be well above the seasonal average and are expected to reach into the lower 90s by midweek.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Some cig and vsby restrictions from fog and stratus are near JAX, SSI, and VQQ for the first hour or so of the TAF, period but otherwise expect VFR through rest of the period. There are some scattered to broken clouds around 5 kft from GNV to SGJ this morning, but will be temporary. Could also be some broken clouds at or above 3500 ft for SGJ today in the onshore flow during the early aftn. For winds, E-NE increasing to 10G15 knots after 15Z today and decreasing once again by sunset.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the weekend into next week. Elevated seas today over the area waters, mostly from east swells, will gradually subside through early next week.

Rip Currents and Surf:

Onshore flow keep a high risk of rip currents this weekend with rough surf of 4-6 feet today and 3-5 feet on Sunday and Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Inland Dispersion This Weekend - Critically Low Humidity Inland Southeast Ga This Weekend

Northeasterly winds will continue through today and then shift to become more easterly by Sunday. High dispersions across inland NE FL today will expand to include much of the inland locations of NE FL and SE GA on Sunday. An extended dry period will settle across the area this weekend and into next week. With the drier air over the area, afternoon RH values values will approach critically low values today and Sunday across inland southeast GA, however wind speeds for these areas are expected to remain below Elevated criteria. Next week, the drier airmass extends southward across north Florida. Monday through Thursday, minimum inland humidity of 25-35% is forecast with daily afternoon Gulf and Atlantic coast sea breezes presses inland. Additionally, a warming trend will bring above seasonal high temperatures during the upcoming week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Early morning fog developments are expected during the overnight and early morning hours, with more dense developments occurring over inland areas and along the SE Georgia coast.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001

April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 52 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 77 57 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 81 55 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 77 60 78 63 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 84 54 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 83 54 85 57 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.