textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Noreaster Conditions through Saturday. Life-threatening Rip Currents and Surf Zone Conditions. Minor Tidal Flooding Today and Saturday for the Atlantic Coast. Elevated tides in the St Johns River through the Weekend. Minor Beach Erosion Possible through Saturday. Small Craft Advisories through Saturday Morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

-Potential for coastal flooding around times of high tide

-Elevated onshore winds and dangerous rip current/surf conditions

Early this morning, the base of a strong mid/upper level shortwave trough is shifting ESE of the area as a deep omega ridge across southern Quebec extends southward to the TN Valley behind the trough. A surface low continues to develop east of the Outer Banks of NC with a trailing cold front extending SW into southern FL as strong high pressure wedges down the lee of the southern/central Appalachians. Breezy northerly winds at the coast 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph also persist while decreasing to 10-15 mph inland. Goes Precipitable Water imagery reveals PWATs falling to below average levels 1.25 to 1.5 along the coast and even drier inland to around 1.00 inch near the 10th percentile based on climatology.

Dewpoints in the low 60s along and north of I-10 will lower into the upper 50s through sunrise with downward trend from the low 70s to the upper 60s along the NE FL coast south of Jacksonville. Temps currently in the mid to upper 60s inland/low to mid 70s along the coast will also fall another 3 to 5 degrees to the low 60s north of I-10 and mid 60s south of I-10 to near 70 at the NE FL coast. Enough coastal convergence beneath the base of the trough will support a few light coastal showers moving onshore the NE FL coast, but drying out past I-95 through mid morning with light rainfall amount less than a tenth of an inch.

Today, skies will gradually clear from late morning into early afternoon as the low to the northeast lifts slowly northward east of the Mid Atlantic coast. Breezy NNE winds 8-15 mph gusting to 20 mph inland and 15-20 mph gusting to 25-30 mph along the coast/ St Johns river basin will persist through the day. The NNE flow and upcoming full moon will present at least one more high tide cycle along the coast mid to late morning raising water levels near minor flood stage 1.5 -2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) and will continue the Coastal Flood Advisory through late morning (See Coastal flooding section).

Despite mostly sunny skies, the cool air advection and northerly flow will keep highs below normal again into the upper 70s over most of inland SE GA and the coast, around 80 along and west of I-95 over NE FL and low 80s over inland NE FL west of US-17.

Tonight, winds will diminish to near calm inland and 5-10 mph along the coast with lows about 10 degrees below average as clear skies, cool air advection, and light winds away from the coast allow lows to fall into the low 50s over inland SE GA, mid to upper 50s over NE FL west of US-17, low 60s along the SE GA coast and mid 60s along the NE FL coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor Coastal Flooding Likely Around Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast on Saturday. Minor Tidal Flooding Likely within the St. Johns River Basin the entire weekend.

- High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend

- Much Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected, Especially Saturday and Sunday Nights as Winds Diminish at Inland Locations.

Cool dry air associated with high pressure to the north will continue to press down over the forecast area bringing dry weather, cooler temperatures, and clear skies Saturday with increasing high clouds on Sunday. Risk of tidal flooding will continue along the Atlantic Coast on Saturday but lessen on Sunday as the flow becomes offshore. High risk of rip currents will continue through the weekend as swells from the Mid Atlantic storm system continue to impact the surf zone. Trapped tides in the St. Johns River Basin will continue minor flooding during times of high tide through the entire weekend. High temperatures will remain below normal and in the lower 80s on Saturday, but will rebound closer to normal levels in the middle 80s on Sunday. Overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid 50s over southeast Georgia and in the upper 50s and lower 60s for northeast Florida.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor Tidal Flooding is Likely Around Times of High Tide within the St. Johns River Basin Early Next Week.

- Warming Trend Takes Shape Next Week, with increasing rain chances by the mid to late week time frame.

Initially dry weather conditions will be in place on Monday with chances for showers and storms gradually increasing mid to late week as high pressure ridging from out of the east adjusts the prevailing flow to become more southerly, resulting in the drier air over the region being gradually replaced by more moist maritime air from out of the south by the latter part of the week. Temperatures will experience a warning trend through the week, rising to be above the seasonal average by the end of the period with max temps rising into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

MARINE

Low pressure strengthening to the northeast today will track further to the north through the end of the weekend as high pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the southeast states. The gradient between high pressure and a front to the south trailing the low to the northeast will keep elevated winds and seas over the area waters through tonight before slowly diminishing Saturday into Saturday night, resulting in enhanced northeasterly winds and waves lasting through Tonight. Small Craft conditions will continue through at least the better part of Saturday. These conditions ease Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure weakens and the low pressure area lifts further away from the area.

Rip Currents: There will be several days of strong and dangerous rip currents with an elevated risk through the upcoming weekend. Additionally, elevated north northeasterly winds will continue to produce breakers up to 5-9 feet through This evening, increasing the surf danger. Therefore, a High Surf Advisory will continue through late tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air mass will gradually overspread our region Today through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 35 percent this afternoon for locations north of Waycross in southeast Georgia, with lower humidity values of 25 to 35 percent then expanding to inland locations throughout our region from Saturday through Monday. Gusty northerly surface and transport winds will continue Today area-wide, with decreasing cloud cover and rising mixing heights yielding good daytime dispersion values. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly on Saturday, with breezy conditions persisting at coastal locations. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide.

Fog Potential...Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon that occurs on Saturday. Very breezy north northeasterly onshore winds along coastal locations will persist through this evening and combine with these increasing astronomical tides to create minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast. Water levels have already peaked during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) from Thursday evening's high tide and are forecast to peak again near 2 feet MHHW for the upcoming high tide cycles this morning and this evening.

Minor flooding will then likely expand to the St. Johns River basin today and be possible around times of high tide through the weekend and possibly into next week, as rising astronomical tides beyond the date of the Full Moon result in a "trapped tide" situation, keeping water levels elevated, generally at 1-2 feet above MHHW during each tide cycle for most locations within the basin.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 79 52 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 80 61 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 79 59 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 78 65 81 62 / 20 0 0 0 GNV 83 58 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 84 60 85 58 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for FLZ124- 138-233-333. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ125-132- 137-225-325-633. GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GAZ154- 166. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for GAZ154- 166. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ452-454- 470-472-474.