textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough Surf Today. Breezy Onshore Winds Continue Today. Small Craft Advisories Through This Morning.

- Isolated Showers Today & Friday, Mainly Along & East of the I-95 Corridor. A thunderstorm is also possible.

- Elevated Rip Current Risk Friday into the Weekend

- Scattered Afternoon Showers and Thunderstorms Saturday through Early Next Week. Locally Heavy Rainfall is Possible.

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Breezy Onshore Winds This Afternoon, mainly along the coast

- Dangerous surf conditions and a high rip current risk

High pressure ridging extends down the eastern seaboard maintaining the breezy NE flow today. Drier air (PWATs ~1 in) over the area today will erode as moisture gradually returns from the ENE increasing PWATs to 1.4-1.7 in. later this afternoon into tonight. Waves of light coastal showers will move through the NE flow with a few shifting onshore then quickly dissipating. Highs today will range from the mid 80s along the coast to the upper 80s to around 90 further inland. Slightly cooler overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s inland to the 70s closer to the coast. Patchy fog will be possible across inland SE GA early Friday morning with lighter winds and an increase in low level moisture.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate to High rip current risk likely to continue over the area beaches Friday and Saturday - Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms expected Friday for northeast FL, increasing to scattered to possibly numerous coverage Saturday.

On Friday: a mid/upper level low pressure system and trough will begin to move over the FL Peninsula, with an associated sfc trough approaching the forecast area. A couple of other weak sfc troughs will be over the area, one near the beaches early in the day and another across parts of southeast GA. Otherwise, weak sfc high pressure ridge will hold over parts of GA and SC. With the pressure gradient easing off a bit, it won't be as breezy as Wed or Thu but easterly low level flow will remain. With some rising moisture for the area, mainly partly cloudy skies expected with diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and a few storms for northeast FL. There is more limited moisture in southeast GA and thus only supporting a 10 percent chance of a shower. For Friday night, limited moisture and weak upward lift, associated with the mid/upper level trough passing overhead, support generally weak isolated convection overnight. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday are expected with lows Friday night around 70 or lower 70s.

Saturday: sfc high pressure weakens and pivots to the northeast as low pressure troughing moves east to west into the forecast area as the mid/upper level trough across the FL peninsula gets pushed into the eastern Gulf. Less sunny skies expected as a more moist and unstable airmass is expected. This will lead to greater chances of showers and a few more storms. For now, looking like isolated shower or storm for southeast GA, but scattered showers and storms for northeast FL. Some heavy downpours are possible. Highs expected again in the upper 80s to lower 90s, warmest from Suwannee Valley north into southeast GA.

Saturday night, a more pronounced trough and possibly a weak low forming along the coastal areas is forecast. NBM guidance shows somewhat muted precip chances, but will probably boost the forecast about 10-15 percent given new guidance showing chance POPs (~30-50 percent). Some locally heavy rainfall possible for the coastal areas due to better moisture convergence associated with the sharpening troughing along the coast. Lows will be in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible - Elevated rip current risk and rough surf for area beaches for Sunday

The closed 500 mb low drifts further west into the Gulf on Sunday while sfc troughing along our coastal areas open up a bit during the daytime. Deep layer flow is east to southeast, and we will have a moist and unstable airmass with PWATs close to 2 inches. Seems reasonable to expect scattered to numerous showers and storms during the day. There is a chance of locally rainfall at times.

For early next week, the mid-level low in the eastern Gulf ends up weakening and filling while just broad sfc troughing oriented from northeast to southwest remains over northeastern FL. Sufficiently high moisture and daytime heating should aid in scattered to numerous shower and storm development each day given the continuation of warm high temps in the mid 80s to around 90. Mean flow may begin to transition to east and then northeast late Tuesday into Wednesday as a backdoor frontal boundary starts pushing into the southeast states.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Lingering showers will pass by the NE FL TAF sites over the next hour before dissipating. Showers could cause brief restrictions. Inland winds subside overnight to 5 kts or less. Winds remain breezy for the coastal TAF sites with winds around 15 kts. NE winds increase again after 14Z with sustained winds 10-15 kt and gusts 20- 25 kt. A few coastal showers may pass near the TAF sites later today but chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

MARINE

Breezy northeast winds and elevated seas gradually subside this morning as high pressure ridging builds down the eastern seaboard. Small Craft Advisory conditions decrease to small craft exercise caution today. Rounds of isolated showers will move over the area waters today. Another area of high pressure builds across the eastern seaboard continuing onshore flow into early next week. An upper disturbance moving over Florida and into the Gulf will bring scattered to numerous showers and storms over the waters Friday into the weekend.

Rip Currents: Continued breezy northeast winds and elevated surf combine to lead to dangerous surf and a high rip current risk for area beaches Today. Onshore winds and seas subside leading to moderate risk for SE GA beaches on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy to areas of high daytime dispersions today and Friday.

Northeast to east winds will continue today, with elevated wind speeds continuing today but lessening on Friday. Another day of higher dispersions can be expected today. Drier air filtering into the region will keep rain chances low through the end of the work week, with only scattered showers along the coast due to the onshore flow. Even with the drier air filtering in, min RH values are expected to remain near or the 40% mark, but locations in far interior SE GA hover in the near mid to upper 30 percent range both today and Friday.

Fog Potential...No significant fog expected. However, patchy fog is possible for inland areas early in the morning hours on Friday and Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Coastal water levels continue the trend upwards in the past 24 hours with peak values of about 1 to 1.2 ft MHHW within the St Johns River Basin (reverse flow). Despite between the new and full moon phases, we will still be near or just shy of minor coastal flooding thresholds, but in very limited areas. These areas will be south of the downtown JAX area, where places like Satsuma and Hastings may reach between 1.2 and 1.4 ft MHHW through Saturday. These are still be below advisory levels, which is typically around 1.5 ft MHHW.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 90 67 92 70 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 87 75 88 76 / 20 10 10 0 JAX 87 72 89 72 / 10 10 20 0 SGJ 86 75 87 75 / 20 10 30 20 GNV 90 71 90 70 / 10 10 20 0 OCF 89 71 90 71 / 10 10 20 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ452- 454-472-474.