textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents today at Northeast Florida Beaches. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Southeast Georgia Beaches

- Small Craft Advisories for Florida Waters through this morning

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Across the Area

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today through Tonight:

- Low RH values Inland Today - Patchy fog inland southern zones Late Tonight

A large mid to upper level trough off the FL east coast will shift further away from the area through tonight resulting in north and then northwest flow aloft over the local area. Mean layer mid/upper level ridge remains well to the west over the southwester U.S. This will help continue the dry weather pattern for the area. The sfc ridge will be starting off over GA and the Carolinas and sink south through the forecast area tonight, and into central FL by sunrise on Saturday. Initial breezy northeast winds for coastal northeast FL will subside as the ridge moves southward. The dry airmass over the area with PWATS under 0.75 inches will hardly support any clouds so clear to mostly clear skies anticipated. The combo of temps and lower dewpoints will result in MIN RH values in the mid 20s inland today. The northeast flow and associated low level moisture may support some shallow patchy fog over the the southeast zones late tonight. Support for this was shown by the HREF and HRRR.

After a chilly start with early morning temps in the upper 30s to mid 40s, highs will be near normal in the 70s today. Some cooler max temps in the upper 60s at the coast due to the onshore flow. Lows tonight won't be as cold at Thursday night, but widespread mins in the 40s are likely. Developing west-southwest around 5 mph tonight around Alma northward will keep the mins temps closer to 50 degrees there.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal temps this weekend - Patchy Fog possible Saturday Morning for portions of Northeast FL

High pressure at the lower levels will remain southwest of the region on Saturday before drifting eastward towards south of the area by Sunday. This subsidence pattern will persist fair conditions across the region throughout the weekend, with a more west to southwesterly flow resulting in much warmer temperatures compared to the past several days. The general upward trend in low level moisture could result in some patchy fog across northeast FL, especially on Saturday Morning as winds are expected to be more stirred up on Saturday Night and Sunday thanks to a weakening shortwave aloft moving through and the lower level pressure gradient tightening a bit. Highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday will trend further upward into the mid to upper 80s on Sunday with the slightly stronger westerly breezes. Morning lows in the 50s will be common both Saturday and Sunday Night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Very warm early in the period before a cool-down for most later in the period - Next chances for rain with a frontal boundary Monday Night & Tuesday, lingering on Wednesday for some

High pressure breaks down on Monday as a front approaches from the north, pushing through the region Monday Night and Tuesday. Guidance has trended a little bit less progressive with the frontal passage over the past 12 to 24 hours, and given more variance in the solutions, confidence is therefore a bit lower than "normal" for this far out. That said, non diurnal frontal timing for most of the area as well as very lackluster upper level support and moisture should result in a primarily dry FROPA initially for Monday Night and the first half of Tuesday. However, with guidance trending more towards a slowing and stalling trend over central FL Tuesday Evening and into Wednesday, looking like areas furthest south and east would have have the best chances for convection during this same time frame closer to the stalling boundary. This stalling front scenario and high pressure building from the north would also set the stage for a breezy onshore flow, mainly around Tuesday and Wednesday before breaking down as a secondary frontal boundary looks to drop towards the area by Thursday.

Temperatures start the period above normal Monday, with only a slight drop looking likely for many with the front around Tuesday/Wednesday before moderation appears likely once again.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

VFR expected to prevail for the forecast period. Light northerly winds through 13z, and then becoming northeasterly and then easterly during the day and early evening about 8-12 kt or less, with the stronger wind/wind gusts at SGJ. Light and near calm winds after 00z-02z Saturday.

MARINE

A ridge of high pressure will slowly move south into the area coastal waters today and then push south of the waters by Saturday morning. For today, an area of small craft advisory conditions will exist over the southeast marine waters with winds and seas diminishing further by this evening and overnight. The high pressure system will stay south of the waters Saturday through Monday causing west and southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front will move into the waters Monday night producing increasing north and northeast winds and building seas which continues into Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Breezy northeast winds and elevated surf today will support a high risk of rip currents at northeast FL beaches, and more moderate risk for southeast GA beaches. Surf near the 2-4 ft range is likely for northeast FL, and 2-3 ft southeast GA beaches. On Saturday, due to residual northeast swells of 3-4 ft at 8-10 seconds, we may be looking at moderate to high risk, with the high risk more so for most portions of northeast FL beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH INLAND TODAY... - AREAS OF NEAR CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH OVER INLAND NORTHEAST FL SATURDAY - LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY OVER FAR INLAND GA - AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEKEND

High pressure will continue to drift south and westward through Saturday, maintaining dry conditions across the area while shifting wind direction more towards the west. RH values will once again drop into the 20-30% range inland today. Though some moderation is expected throughout the weekend, some values under 30% may linger on Saturday, especially over inland northeast FL. Surface winds and wind above the surface will pick up this weekend as well, resulting in areas of high dispersion away from the coast. The next chances for rain and possibly some thunderstorms continues to be Monday Night and Tuesday, and possibly into Wednesday as well over parts of northeast FL as a cold front moves through and stalls near central FL.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential is not expected the next couple of days, however some patchy fog will be possible Saturday Morning over southern areas such as near the Ocala National Forest.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Sunday and Monday:

March 22: KJAX: 90/1935 KAMG: 88/2011 KCRG: 87/2011

March 23: KJAX: 91/1935 KAMG: 86/2012 KCRG: 87/2012

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 75 49 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 52 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 73 47 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 70 48 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 76 45 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 77 46 82 51 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ452- 454. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ472- 474.