textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Direct Impacts from Tropical Depression #2 Not Expected

- Lesser storm coverage is expected Tuesday and Wednesday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today, Possible High Risk Tuesday

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Tuesday into Tuesday Night

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

- Seasonably Hot Summer Conditions

TD#2 is over the Gulf this evening, and still on the forecast track of a general northwest movement today, but very slow at about 3 to 5 mph. A tropical-like airmass over the region though there is some dry air in the mid levels that is rotating around TD#2 that is located in the eastern Gulf.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier Conditions Overall Tuesday and Wednesday

Tropical Depression 2 (TD2) will continue to slowly drift west/northwest away from the region Tuesday and Wednesday, as high pressure ridging in the low levels builds across the Florida Peninsula once again. A modest pressure gradient will persist between the two features during the short term but especially Tuesday, with a south to southeasterly flow around 10-20mph with gusts up to near 30 mph at times.

Guidance is rather split on the extent of diurnal convection on Tuesday, as guidance like the GFS is more aggressive with a dry slot aloft cycling into the area, in addition to more subsidence being introduced as TD2 pulls away and ridging moves overhead. Have essentially tried to "meet in the middle" with respect to PoPs, with a general 30-40% chance of showers and storms from well west of the I-95 corridor and around 15-30% closer to the coast as the Atlantic sea breeze should be enough for at least some isolated to widely scattered convection to develop. Wednesday, overall better agreement that the primary chances for rain will be over far inland GA and parts of the Upper Suwannee Valley.

Southerly flow and some subsidence will allow temps to rise a few degrees above normal each day once again, with mostly mid 90s expected except some lower 90s for far western areas.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms, Especially Friday & into the Weekend - Potential Heat Advisory Conditions Late Week & Weekend

A frontal boundary will drop southward towards southeast GA Wednesday Night and into Thursday before becoming nearly stationary for the next several days thereafter. This will rather quickly bring widespread higher moisture back into the area, especially Friday and into next weekend. This will therefore increase chances for showers and thunderstorms from south to north accordingly for the end of work week and into the upcoming weekend. As the flow direction becomes more southwest to westerly, temperatures are expected to rise a bit above climo. With the increase in moisture, this could allow for conditions to reach near heat advisory criteria late week into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Showers and storms have all but run their course for the day over TAF sites with some lingering convection moving over inland areas and dispersing later tonight. VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours and into Tuesday morning, with initially mild winds building in from out of the south by around 14z with a potential for convection to return by around 19z-21z, near the end of the forecast period.

MARINE

Breezy southerly winds continue across the waters as a tropical depression in the Gulf strengthens into a Tropical Storm later today or tonight. The pressure gradient between the tropical system and the Bermuda high will lead to a long duration of breezy south winds to Exercise Caution level today and tonight. There's potential for south winds to increase to near Small Craft Advisory levels, or around 20 knots, by Tuesday or Tuesday night. The prolonged south winds will elevate seas up to 5 or possibly 6 feet through Tuesday. For the second half of the week, winds will decrease in strength as the tropical system moves farther west along the northern Gulf coast. While winds decrease, a shift to offshore flow will develop as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest by the end of the week and then stalls just north of the waters this weekend. Isolated strong thunderstorms with gusty winds may impact the area waters later this afternoon and again on Tuesday, mainly within 20 nm of the coast.

Rip Currents:

Breezy longshore flow will keep breakers around 2-3 feet and result in a solid Moderate Risk of rip currents this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes onshore. Increasing surf Tuesday will elevate breakers to near 3-4 feet and may be necessary to have High Risk for rip currents for Southeast GA and Northeast FL beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Through Midweek Inland

Ample moisture associated with Tropical Depression Two well to our west will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances being between about 3 pm and 7 pm. Outside of any showers/storms, a fairly breezy southerly flow will be expected, which will shift more southeasterly later this evening as a sea breeze tries to push inland. Dispersions will therefore be in the good range away from the coast today and through the next several days as well, with areas of high dispersions possible - especially between about I-75 and HWY 301 in north FL, and inland north of I-10 in GA. No significant concerns overnight tonight before chances for showers and storms are expected to be overall lower on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as well as a breezy flow continues. A frontal boundary drops southward Wednesday Night and Thursday, returning elevated chances for showers and t'storms for many.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not expected for the next several nights. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible in and near thunderstorms, with occasional outflow boundaries capable of producing sudden wind shifts well away from ongoing convection. No significant impacts expected from TD2.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 75 93 75 94 / 30 40 10 10 SSI 81 93 81 94 / 10 20 10 10 JAX 76 95 77 96 / 20 20 10 10 SGJ 78 94 77 95 / 20 20 10 10 GNV 76 93 75 94 / 10 40 0 10 OCF 76 93 75 94 / 10 40 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.