textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today

- Daily Mainly Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Today: Isolated Strong to Severe Inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley. Primary Storm Hazards: Localized Flooding & Gusty Winds.

- Hot and Humid - Daily Heat Index 95- 105F through Friday

- Historic Drought & Elevated Wildfire Danger Continues

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated strong/severe storms possible Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA today

- High Risk of Rip Currents Continues at all area beaches Today

Lingering showers and storms inland will gradually dissipate as they shift northeastward early this morning. Showers will develop a convergent band along and just off the SE GA coast which will continue light rain into mid-morning. Otherwise, the region will be between a persistent mid/upper level trough digging into TX and ridging extending across the western Atlantic and SE US. This will continue the parade of shortwaves rounding the ridge and passing near inland SE GA in upper SW flow. Slightly drier air (PWATS 1.6- 1.8 in) begins to filter in from the SSE this afternoon which will lower convective coverage to scattered over portions of NE FL and along the coast as the diurnal sea breezes shift inland. Better moisture (PWATs 2+ in) and instability will lead to more numerous coverage over the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA this afternoon into evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible in the late afternoon into early evening for Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA where activity could be enhanced by passing shortwaves aloft and boundary collisions. Stronger storms could produce gusty winds, heavy downpours, localized flooding and frequent lightning. The main limiting factor for stronger activity will be weak shear. Convection will be slow to dissipate tonight and linger over areas mainly west of HWY 301.

Highs will be above seasonable in NE FL in the low 90s with seasonable temps in the mid/upper 80s in SE GA and along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

- Summer-like pattern continues - Afternoon thunderstorms inland Tuesday, along I-95 Wednesday - Heat index 95-105 degrees

Stagnant pattern continues as deep layer ridging over Bermuda builds westward, pushing the "train" of shortwave impulse farther west. Due to a drying southerly flow, and more typical levels of available moisture, overage in showers and thunderstorms should decrease to isolated to widely scattered along the sea breezes Tuesday afternoon.

As the an upper trough dives from the Great Lakes and begins to flatten Bermuda ridging, flow will veer southwesterly by Wednesday, tapping into deeper moisture across the Gulf. This will lead to an increase in thunderstorm coverage and pin the Atlantic sea breeze around the I-95 corridor. Late day scattered to numerous showers are likely to focus along the I-95 corridor as the Gulf breeze merges into the stalled Atlantic sea breeze.

Hot and humid conditions will continue with temperatures rising into the upper 80s and low 90s each day. The beaches may even reach the 90 degree mark Wednesday as the steering flow turns southwesterly. Heat index will be around where it has been, peaking in the upper 90s to around 105.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

- Daily Thunderstorm Chances - Slight Risk of Heavy Rainfall Next Weekend

As upper troughing begins to carve out well to the north, the Bermuda ridge will be flattened and shift southward, favoring a moist southwest steering flow pattern into next weekend.

This general pattern indicates a dominant west coast sea breeze regime Thursday and Friday with higher afternoon and evening storm coverage east of Highway 301 toward the Atlantic coast.

Westerly flow will increase this weekend as a fast-moving shortwave drifts eastward across the northern Gulf coast and then the local forecast area. The feature will introduce favorable lift and modest dynamics that elevated the potential for strong diurnal thunderstorm activity along the dominant Gulf sea breeze and may promote nocturnal thunderstorms Saturday night. This will bring another good chance too add moisture to the dry soils. There is potential of a 'backdoor' cold to work southward Sunday or Monday next week that could bring drier conditions.

Hot and humid areawide, including the beaches as offshore establishes, to end the week before ridging backs down with an incoming trough. Increasing cloud cover and convection will also play a role in temperatures this weekend, but the forecast will trend cooler with temps favoring more typical readings to end the month.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Lingering showers and storms will continue to weaken and shift northeastward expected to pass in the vicinity of VQQ, JAX and SSI between 06-09Z. Periods of MVFR ceilings at JAX and SSI this morning, with lower visibility possible at VQQ. Breezy SE winds around 10 kts develop again this afternoon in the wake of the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms may impact the TAF sites between 18-00Z. Heavier downpours could lower visibilities to MVFR/IFR.

MARINE

Showers and storms will move into the coastal waters early this morning. Influence of Bermuda high pressure will continue south to southeasterly winds over the waters through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and offshore thunderstorms expected today and Tuesday. Daily afternoon and evening surges are expected with winds increasing to exercise caution levels through midweek. Atlantic high pressure will then shift southward around Thursday this week, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across our area as prevailing winds become southerly.

Rip Currents:

Due to breezy onshore winds this afternoon, and surf around 3-4 feet, there will be a High Risk at all area beaches through this afternoon and evening. High risk is likely to continue into Tuesday due the afternoon southeasterly wind surge.

FIRE WEATHER

AREAS OF HIGH INLAND DISPERSION FOR NE FL TODAY AND AREAWIDE - Tuesday

A ridge of high pressure over Bermuda will extend its ridge axis across the area resulting in a summery like pattern through the week. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will develop with the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze and may become strong as the two sea breezes collide between the I-75 and US 301 corridors this evening. A decrease in thunderstorm coverage is expected Tuesday before scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday.

The Atlantic sea breeze will be dominant today and Tuesday, with speeds around 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph. Areas of high dispersion are expected inland over the next few days as breezy southerly transport flow continues amid the hot, unstable afternoon airmass.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week but patchy morning fog will be possible in areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic winds during periods of thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 68 88 69 / 80 80 60 60 SSI 86 76 88 77 / 30 10 20 50 JAX 90 74 92 75 / 30 10 30 50 SGJ 89 76 90 76 / 20 10 30 30 GNV 92 73 93 73 / 40 50 40 70 OCF 91 73 91 73 / 40 40 50 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.