textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Fog & Sea Fog Tonight & Early Saturday. Dense Fog Possible, especially over inland Southeast GA, From Waycross

- Scattered Showers and Isolated Storms through the early

- Afternoon For Marion, Putnam, and Flagler Counties

- Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds Expected Next Week. Elevated Surf and High Risk for Rip Currents Likely by Tuesday and Wednesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT:

- Isolated thunderstorms possible during the first half of the day for Marion, Putnam and Flagler Counties.

- Localized dense fog possible this morning and again tonight

A slowing cold front is moving its way southward through the area early this morning, becoming more diffuse in the process. The leading edge of the front is expected to come to a stall across central FL through this afternoon. Given the broad but weak convergence within the frontal zone and a passing energetic shortwave aloft, scattered showers and potentially a few thunderstorms during the morning and early afternoon hours across Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties. Elsewhere, a drying westerly mid level flow will keep conditions rain-free. Though rain isn't expected, mostly cloudy to overcast conditions are expected with the low level moisture in place. By the evening, the drier westerly flow aloft shifts southward, ending the chance for rain.

With the weak post-frontal flow and gradual drying will scatter out cloud cover this evening before low stratus and patchy inland fog develops overnight into Sunday.

Onshore flow behind the front will lead to cooler highs at the coastal zoned areas, reading in the mid/upper 60s while inland areas warm to the low 70s. Though stratus will develop, temps will still cool to the mid/upper 40s to low 50s areawide.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Breezy onshore winds deveoping during the day Monday

Overall quiet day is expected Sunday and expected to continue into Sunday Night as weak high pressure will be in control. Some higher clouds will start to filter in from the northwest later in the day and into Sunday Night, but otherwise more sun than clouds on Sunday with highs generally in the mid to upper 70s. A weakening northeasterly breezy will keep things a bit cooler closer to the immediate coastline where more readings in the upper 60s will be common. Despite some of the higher clouds across the area, very light winds with weak high pressure building more directly over the area will allow for at least modest radiational cooling Sunday Night with temps in the 40s to near 50 expected inland and low 50s near the coast and St. Johns River Basin.

A dry backdoor front will move towards the area Sunday Night and push through the region throughout the day Monday and into Monday Night, wedging a ridge of high pressure down the southeastern seaboard. This ridge combined with a developing inverted trough over area waters will set up a northeasterly wind type of event, with winds in the 10-20 mph range expected and gusts up to around 30 mph at times, the higher range of course being closer to the coast. Given the lower water levels with the drought and overall lack of longevity with the event, no significant coastal flooding type of concerns at this time. Isolated coastal shower chances will also increase during Monday and stick around through Monday Night with this type of setup. High temps Monday will be similar to those on Sunday as the northeast surge works its way down the coast, with mid 60s to low 70s by the coast and mid 70s to near 80 inland. Lows in the 50s will be common on Monday Night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Breezy onshore flow and coastal shower chances likely to continue through at least Tuesday

Coastal troughing/high pressure ridging regime looks to remain in place through at least Tuesday before high pressure to the north starts to shift east/southeastward into the Atlantic mid week, shifting wind direction more southeast to southerly for later in the week. Continued onshore flow and a lingering diffuse boundary/offshore trough will generally persist showers closer to the coast throughout the week, which look to increase for the entirety of the area by late week as the environment becomes for warm and moist as a whole. Temperatures will trend above normal for the long term, especially inland.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

As expected, a widespread LIFR stratus deck with areas of fog have developed in the wake of the frontal passage. Northeast to East- Northeast winds around 5-12 knots will persist through the day with winds up to 15 knots at coastal sites. Ceilings will be stubborn today, lifting slowly. However, IFR ceilings are expected by 15z at most sites but MVFR ceilings may not be reached until 18z. VFR conditions may not develop at coastal sites - KCRG and KSGJ - today. While confidence isn't as high in widespread stratus overnight tonight into Monday morning, MVFR to IFR ceilings are on the table for NE FL airfeilds.

MARINE

A cold front over the waters will move south of the area by Saturday morning. Areas of fog will likely develop for portions of the waters tonight through Saturday morning with low visibility leading to hazy or locally foggy conditions at times. North to northeast winds will then increase midday Saturday, reaching Exercise Caution Levels. High pressure will lead to a light onshore flow Sunday before a possible strong surge of northeast winds reaches the waters with a back door cold front on Monday. Winds and seas may reach small craft advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday. Winds will turn more onshore through the middle of next week with coastal troughs developing bouts of showers over the waters.

Rip Currents: Low-end moderate risk today with increasing north-northeasterly winds and surf building to 2-3 feet along the NE FL beaches. Low risk is expected for SE GA beaches. Similar expectations are forecast Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front will continue to push south of the region today, with scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms possible through the afternoon over southern areas of northeast FL counties including the Ocala National Forest. High pressure and a northeasterly flow develops behind the front, which will be the primary feature through early to mid next week. A coastal trough will develop on Monday which will increase the onshore flow strength as well as shower potential near the coast through Tuesday before weakening by mid week as high pressure moves east of the region. With the onshore flow, mixing heights and dispersions will be generally good inland, and fair closer to the coast where more stable marine influence is expected.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog are expected through early to mid morning today. Patchy fog will also be possible Sunday Morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 70 47 78 47 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 64 51 68 52 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 68 49 75 49 / 20 0 0 0 SGJ 65 52 69 52 / 30 10 0 0 GNV 74 49 79 49 / 30 0 0 0 OCF 75 50 79 50 / 40 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.