textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warnings & Frost Advisories through this Morning. Freeze Warning Area: Inland Southeast GA. Frost Advisory: Coastal SE GA & Portions of Inland Northeast FL. Widespread Frost Expected in the Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory Areas

- Small Craft Advisory Expected for the Area Waters Tonight

- Light Freeze & Widespread Frost at Inland Locations on Thurs Night

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A 1021 mb high pressure ridge oriented southwest to northeast across the forecast area will slide southeastward as a cold front pushes into the southeast states today. A strong shortwave will drop into the TN and Ohio Valley helping to pivot the front southeast into our region by tonight. The front is expected to move into southeast GA this evening, moving to the I-10 corridor shortly after midnight, and push just south of the area by sunrise.

Temps are in the lower 30s over the freeze warning area with patchy to areas of fog, with some freezing fog possible as well. A fairly large temp gradient exists with the 30s in southeast GA, mid 40s toward northeast FL and lower to mid 50s further into stratocumulus cloud area from Marion to Putnam, and St Johns and Flagler counties. A coastal trough and isentropic upglide continues to support the wide area of stratocumulus clouds across the southeast zones which will gradually erode by mid to later today as the low level wind trajectories turn westerly ahead of the approaching front. As the high pressure slides southward, return flow will bring max temps up to the 60s most areas, with lower 60s for southeast GA and mid to upper 60s for northeast FL. Tonight, as the front moves through, low level mixing will result in some wind overnight at about 5-15 mph or so, and, in relation to that, have blended low temps slightly above the guidance. Lows are projected in the 40s most areas, but upper 30s are possible for inland southeast GA.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Dry and cool conditions continue Thursday as a weak cold front will have clear the area to the south during the early predawn hours. Behind the front, northwesterly flow will bring in dry and cooler air into the area. While not as cold as yesterday (Tuesday), daytime highs in SE GA will be in the mid to upper 50s, with colder temperatures along the Altamaha River Basin. Across NE FL, highs are expected to range in the lower to mid 60s. Thursday night, calm winds and clear skies will settle across the area, allowing for another night of good radiational cooling. Looking at current probabilities, temperatures are not expected to be as low as Tuesday evening, but coldest temperatures again will be felt across inland SE GA, the Suwannee Valley Region of NE FL, and along the I-10 corridor west of the JAX metro. Inland SE GA will have Lows in the lower to mid 30s, along the I-10 corridor west of JAX will be in the mid 30s, while coastal locations and the rest of NE FL will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Light Freeze & Widespread Frost across SE GA inland Locations and patchy to areas of Frost towards the Suwannee Valley Region is likely.

Friday, winds shift to become southwesterly for much of the area which will bring in warmer air from the Gulf. As such, temperatures will "warm" up with daytime highs in the 60s for most of the area, with lower 70s across north central FL. Overnight Lows will span in the 40s area wide, warmer temperatures across the coast and across north central Florida.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The relatively warmer temperatures will continue through the weekend as most locations will have daytime highs span in the 70s. Cooler temperatures make a return to start the upcoming week after the passage of a dry cold front on Sunday. Overnight Lows on Sunday and Monday nights, will likely dip into the 30s once again across inland SE GA, but still trending to be a bit too windy for any frost development for these two nights. Temperatures will begin warm once again on Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Surface observations show a mix of IFR and MVFR cigs across the TAFs sites. Recent obs show GNV at LIFR cigs. These low cigs will slowly erode through the late morning, and VFR is anticipated this afternoon. The exception may be for SGJ as some low cigs may persist there until about 19z. Otherwise, mostly clear skies developing ahead of the next frontal system this afternoon and evening. This front will move into the area later tonight and may be accompanied by scattered to broken clouds around 1500-3000 ft so MVFR cigs will be possible after 06z. Light winds become westerly after 16-18Z about 6-12 knots, shifting to more northwesterly late tonight in association with the cold frontal system. Will need to monitor model guidance for possible LLWS from Duval terminals to SSI after 03z tonight.

MARINE

West to northwest winds will strengthen late today and tonight as dry cold front moves across the area. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop over the area waters tonight and continue until Thursday morning. A high pressure center will build into the area Thursday into Friday and then shift offshore by early Saturday ahead of the next frontal boundary. This front will likely remain dry as it crosses our local waters on Sunday night. Strong high pressure building to the north of our region in the wake of this frontal passage will result in strengthening northerly winds on Sunday night that will shift to northeast on Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely throughout our local waters from Sunday night through Monday night.

Rip Currents: Primarily moderate risk across the area waters today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 38 56 32 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 63 43 59 41 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 66 41 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 67 47 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 67 44 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 68 45 65 37 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-120-220-322-422-522. GA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ154-166. Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for AMZ470-472-474.