textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards through Wednesday. High Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Wednesday. High Surf Advisory along the Atlantic Coast through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory for all waters through Wednesday.

- Isolated T'storms through Wednesday, Mainly Towards the FL Coast

- Strong Onshore Winds & Increasing Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

UPDATE

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Breezy northeasterly winds continue, especially closer to the coast

- Isolated to widely scattered showers possible overnight, mainly along the coast of St. Johns and Flagler Counties

Northeasterly onshore flow continues, though has subsided slightly this evening which prompted the Wind Advisory to be dropped. Still, the affects of onshore flow including high surf, rip current risk, and plenty of low clouds will stick around throughout the rest of the night especially for areas near and east of the I-95 corridor. In addition, breezy winds closer to the coast and St. Johns River Basin could gust up to 25 to 30 mph at times overnight. Some showers and perhaps an isolated t'storm could creep into southeastern areas as well overnight, though otherwise mainly cloudy overnight with just areas of drizzle closer to the northeast FL coast and perhaps in some patchy spots near the southeast GA coast. Min temps will not be much lower than currently observed across the area, generally in the low to mid 50s over southeast GA and mid 50s to low 60s for northeast FL.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Windy conditions along the Atlantic Coast - High surf and high risk of rip current at local beaches - Chance of showers and slight chance of storms this afternoon and tonight mainly across northeast FL

This afternoon: Forecast remains on track as strong NE surge of winds has pushed cloud cover across all of SE GA/NE FL with temps generally in the 60s. NE winds at 20-30G35-45 mph along the Atlantic Coast from JAX northward to Brunswick will continue through sunset this evening and Wind Advisory looks good at this time. NE winds at 15-25G30-35 mph expected along the NE FL coast south of JAX and generally in the 10-20G25-30 mph range over inland counties this afternoon. Rainfall over the Atlantic Coastal waters has been slow to develop in the covergent/onshore flow, but will continue to expand towards the NE FL coastal counties this afternoon with scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorm potential as far inland as the US 17 corridor, while mainly just isolated to scattered showers possible along the US 301 corridor of inland NE FL and into coastal SE GA through the evening hours. Some brief heavy downpours possible for St. Johns/Flagler counties with total rainfall amounts through tonight in the 0.25"-0.50" range, with lesser amounts around 0.10" elsewhere.

Tonight: Pressure gradient between the low pressure trough offshore and the High pressure center to the North over the Carolinas will weaken slightly and expect Northeast winds to slowly decrease to 10- 15G20 mph over inland areas and to 15-25G30-35 mph over Atlantic Coastal areas along with cloudy skies and rainfall chances remaining over the Atlantic Coastal waters and mainly I-95/US-17 corridors of Coastal NE FL counties, with the risk of an isolated thunderstorm, mainly over the Atlantic waters and south of JAX. Temps will remain nearly steady or slowly fall into the 50s over inland areas and around 60F for coastal NE FL, with only about a 5-10 degree temp drop from current temps this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- A few thunderstorms coastal NE FL Wednesday

Showers will be present along the coast Wednesday as a weak inverted trough sits over the local waters , with coverage expected to expand further inland into north central FL through the day. The highest chance for isolated storms will be near the northeast Florida coast. Onshore winds continue to keep coastal temperatures a little cooler than inland, with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s for southeast GA and the northeast FL coast, 70s elsewhere.

Dry conditions are forecast Wednesday night through Thursday, with clear skies temperatures will warm up into the 80s inland and again onshore winds will keep coastal highs a few degrees cooler. Patchy inland fog is possible Wednesday night through early Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Hot on Friday - Gusty northeasterly winds this weekend

Friday will be hot, with high temperatures in the 80s area-wide, even at the coast as winds become more calm and southerly. Inland high temperatures will approach 90 degrees for much of the area ahead of an incoming cold front this weekend.

Overall, this front is fairly dry, with just a few isolated showers forecast near the northeast Florida coast Saturday night through Sunday. Breezy northeasterly winds will be present Saturday and Sunday, gusting near 35-40 mph near the coast Saturday, with temperatures cooling down into the 60s to 70s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Widespread MVFR cigs continue across area terminals this evening, with this trend expected to at least continue across the region overnight with some lowering likely closer to the coast. Areas of DZ and -RA are also expected to continue at northeast FL terminals east of GNV overnight, which will drop vsbys to IFR levels at times in addition to the lowering cloud decks. Breezy northeasterly winds will also continue through the forecast period, though slightly weaker than observed earlier today as the "surge" weakens.

MARINE

A strong cold front will move south of the waters this afternoon. Gale warnings and small craft advisories are in effect for a strong northeasterly wind surge behind the front today through Wednesday. Scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm are expected today through tonight mainly across the northeast Florida waters. High pressure will then begin to build in from the north Wednesday night resulting in winds lowering but seas will remain elevated and rough. Another cold front will enter the southeast states on Friday night, crossing our local waters on Saturday. Strong high pressure will again build to the north of our area in the wake of this front, resulting in another surge of onshore winds throughout our local waters and possible Gale conditions during the weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk today through Wednesday. Surf builds to 5-7 ft this afternoon, and up to 6-8 ft tonight into early Wednesday before slowly subsiding Wednesday night. High risk rip currents and high surf advisory in effect.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Nighttime Dispersion Areawide Tuesday Night - High Afternoon Dispersion Friday Over Se Ga - Widespread High Afternoon Dispersions Saturday Through Monday

Isolated showers and storms Wednesday, mainly near the northeast FL coast and north central FL. High nighttime dispersion values areawide Tuesday night as winds remain breezy overnight. Drier conditions are expected Thursday onward following a frontal passage, with minRH dipping into the 30-40% range for most inland locations. It will be hotter Friday, with areas of high dispersion over southeast Georgia. Winds will shift back to northeasterly and increase Friday through the weekend, creating high daytime dispersion values.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected tonight. Thunderstorm chances NE FL Wednesday, mainly near the coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 51 72 53 83 / 10 10 0 0 SSI 55 67 58 74 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 56 73 56 82 / 30 20 0 0 SGJ 61 73 60 78 / 50 30 10 10 GNV 57 78 57 85 / 20 10 0 10 OCF 59 79 59 85 / 10 30 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-452- 470-472. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ454-474.