textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning & Late Night Fog Late Tonight/Tuesday. Localized superfog Risk near Wildfires

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Tuesday

- Cold Front Expected Late in the Weekend. Isolated thunderstorms are possible. Windy conditions possible.

UPDATE

Little change to the forecast tonight. A weak shortwave aloft is bring with it some higher clouds and some virga with it, though a few sprinkles are possible through about 10 PM before both cloud cover and these slight rain chances move out. There is some uncertainty tonight with respect to fog potential, though given the recent drought and limited fog this morning, have kept patchy potential mainly west of the I-75 corridor as a light southwest flow develops overnight. Some sea fog is also possible near coastal GA, though confidence is low for this potential at this time as well.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Rest of this afternoon...Partly to Mostly Sunny skies as some passing mid and high clouds continue to stream across the region in the W-NW flow aloft. At the surface, weak high pressure will continue light and variable winds around 5 mph inland, while a weak sea breeze around 10 mph develops along the Atlantic Coast. Max temps still on track to reach near or slightly above normal levels with highs around 70F across inland SE GA and lower to middle 70s across inland NE FL, while the Atlantic Coastal areas to the east of I-95 to the beaches will likely top out in the 60s due to the weak East Coast sea breeze development.

Tonight...Weak high pressure ridge slides a bit further southward down the FL Peninsula and introduces a light W-SW flow, but under mostly clear skies, calm winds and very dry soil conditions expect low temps to fall below NBM guidance levels with lows around 40F inland (upper 30s in normally colder locations), while Atlantic Coastal locations will fall into the middle 40s. Patchy to Areas of fog formation possible again, mainly over inland areas and along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL where some increase low level moisture will push inland in the developing light W-SW steering flow off the Gulf. Also, some patchy sea fog possible along the Atlantic Coastal Areas and I-95 corridor, but overall dew point temps remain lower than sea surface temps, so not a great set-up for sea fog. The threat for super fog remains in place near any wildfire locations, along with some locally dense fog possible inland around sunrise Tuesday morning, but overall dense fog advisory chances remain low.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Initially dry weather conditions on Tuesday will lead to an increased chance for showers by Wednesday as upper level short waves along with a more moist westerly flow develop across the forecast area ahead of an approaching cold air boundary from out of the north, with the highest likelihood for showers occurring over inland southeast Georgia Wednesday afternoon with probabilities decreasing further south into northeast Florida. High temperatures through midweek will be in the mid to upper 70s for inland areas and in the lower 70s along the coast with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Showers with possible isolated thunderstorms developing Saturday night and becoming more widespread on Sunday as a trough drags across the forecast area ahead of an advancing cold front moving in from out of the west with a potential for strengthening winds building in from out of the south-southwest ahead of the fropa. Prior to the weekend, the more moist westerly flow moving across the region south of the boundary to the north will allow for the development of light and isolated diurnal showers to form over the forecast area with the highest likelihood for showers occurring over southeast Georgia and to a lesser extant into northeast Florida. Temperatures are anticipated to be near and above the seasonal average through the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Main operational concern over the next 12 hours or so will be fog potential at area airfields. Continued to include vsby conditions near or just below MVFR at all terminals at this time, though confidence is low with this potential. However, current thinking is best chances of FG impacts being at SSI with localized sea fog and GNV with a light flow developing off the Gulf. Otherwise, VFR conditions will be expected for the remainder of the forecast period with winds just under 10 kts expected by Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE

High pressure will build northeast of the region tonight as a weak coastal trough breaks down over the local waters. A long period easterly swell will maintain elevated combined seas through Tuesday as the surface high builds east of the Florida peninsula. The high will shift southeast of the region Wednesday as a weakening front approaches with increasing westerly winds and a low chance of showers. The front is expected to stall and linger over south Florida Thursday with a brief surge in northeast winds over local waters. The front will morph into a lifting warm front late Friday into Saturday. Rain chances increase this weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west late Saturday into Sunday with winds increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate rip current risk today and Tuesday as easterly swells with periods of up to 12-14 seconds continue to produce surf/breakers into the 3-5 ft range at local beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Daytime Dispersions Today - Patchy High Dispersions On Wednesday

Dry weather conditions will prevail through Tuesday. Surface and transport winds remain weak today as high pressure builds into the region leading to poor to low daytime dispersions across the area, especially near the coast. Easterly flow will increase moisture to coastal areas today but critically low humidities in the low-upper 20s are expected inland, generally near and west of U.S. Highway 301. Moisture gradually increases by Wednesday when min RH values are in the 40 to 50 percent range. Weak Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes develop this afternoon. Southwesterly winds increase on Tuesday leading to good and potentially high dispersions. No significant rain chances expected until mid-late week when a cold front moves into the area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be possible across inland NE FL and SE GA Tuesday morning, with denser fog occurring in proximity with wildfire smoke.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 41 75 53 73 / 0 0 0 40 SSI 45 70 53 68 / 10 0 0 30 JAX 41 79 50 75 / 10 0 0 20 SGJ 44 75 50 73 / 10 0 0 10 GNV 40 78 48 77 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 39 78 47 76 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.