textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend and Next Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Wind Advisory - Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph at Coastal NE FL Locations through tonight. Gale Warning for All Atlantic Coastal Waters through Monday.

- Marginal Condition for Minor Tidal Flooding Possible Along the Atlantic Coast, ICWW & St. Johns River Basin Today into early next week. Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Moderate to strong north to northeast winds expected with gusts to around 30-45 mph. Strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas.

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and possibly minor tidal flooding during high tide

- Below normal temperatures this period.

Our area will continue to experience a cool, windy, and dry airmass through tonight with mean layer 1000-500 mb flow from the northeast. The strong high to the north over the northeast U.S. and low pressure system off the east coast east of the Carolinas will continue to maintain a strong pressure gradient to produce gusty north- northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts reaching 30- 40+ mph, highest along the coastal areas and the St Johns River corridor, where a wind advisory remains in effect. Model guidance shows quite a bit of low level moisture over northeast FL which will support partly to occasional mostly cloudy skies at times. In addition, there is a low chance for showers for eastern zones of northeast FL later today, but mainly confined to St Johns and Flagler counties. Otherwise, despite a good amount of daytime heating, unseasonably cool temps after yesterday's cold front will keep daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s across southeast GA and the lower 70s for most of northeast FL. Clear skies into tonight, but probably partly cloudy along the coast from about JAX southward. The overall dry airmass will bring rather cool lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s for southeast GA and Suwannee Valley, and mid 50s to lower 60s across northeast FL. For the coastal beach areas, rough surf, beach erosion, high rip current risk is expected. Possible minor tidal flooding for the northeast FL coast and the St Johns River basin but not widespread for an advisory at this time.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue into mid week with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding possible.

- Below normal temperatures this period.

A dry airmass will remain over the area keeping dry weather in the forecast at the start of the upcoming week. A tight pressure gradient will persist as high pressure sits over the eastern CONUS and low pressure sits over the western Atlantic, which will bring elevated north-northeasterly wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts around 30 to 35 mph over local waters and along coastal locations. The dry airmass will allow for sunny and clear skies to develop into across the area. Temperatures each afternoon are expected to rise into the 70s, with warmer temperatures on Tuesday afternoon. Overnight Lows will drop into the upper 40s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region, while the rest of NE FL will be in the lower to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Tuesday to Friday

Cool and dry conditions will continue through the period for much of the area, with a chance of showers along coastal locations during the tail end of the forecast period. Onshore northeasterly flow will also persist as an area of low pressure sits off the mid-Atlantic coast and a high pressure ridge north of the area. This will keep the coastal hazards going across the region, including high rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, and minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast and the St Johns River basin. Temperatures will continue to be below the seasonal average through the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Mainly VFR clouds expected through the morning hours but plenty of stratocu clouds anticipated for the eastern terminals. So looking at scattered to broken ceilings at times for the northeast FL coastal terminals. MVFR ceilings around 3 kft look probable at SGJ and CRG near and after 20Z, and also a low chance for a nearby shower after 12z for SGJ.

After a slight lull in breezy conditions earlier in the evening at inland sites JAX, VQQ, and GNV, very breezy conditions have resumed from north to south as better low level mixing occurs. Surface winds for Sunday after sunrise will be sustained 15-25kt Gusts 30-35 kt for the coastal TAFs, a bit lower for GNV at about 12-18kt Gusts 25 kt.

MARINE

Strong high pressure will build to the north through tonight with Gale conditions over the waters. An area of low pressure is expected to develop to the northeast of the region today keeping a tight pressure gradient over the region and continuing strong onshore winds and very dangerous seas. The low will remain northeast of the area east of the Carolina coast as high pressure ridging weakens to the north with Small Craft Advisories are likely to persist into next week.

Rip Currents: High Risk of Rips headline out through late Monday night given strong onshore flow and a powerful longshore current. This probably will persist through much of next week. Rough surf is also expected with a high surf advisory remaining in effect.

FIRE WEATHER

- Elevated nighttime dispersion along the coast tonight and Sunday night

Elevated onshore flow continues this afternoon, with winds from 15 to 25 mph and gusts reaching in the 40+ range along coastal locations. Winds will begin to weaken a bit during the upcoming week, but will still bring breezy conditions along the coast. Dispersions will also be elevated near the coastline over the next couple of nights into midweek due to the persistent breezy onshore flow. With a dry airmass overhead, chances for showers remain very low over the next couple of days. The dry air also bring min RHs down into the 30s over SE GA into midweek.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

For Today, Marginal condition for minor tidal flooding along the northeast FL Atlantic coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and throughout the St. Johns River basin beginning this afternoon. Elevated water levels are likely to continue through at least the middle portion of next week. The bigger problem may be significant beach erosion likely around times of high tide at the northeast FL beaches beginning today, where breakers will build to the about 7-11 foot range with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 67 48 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 57 71 55 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 69 57 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 73 66 73 59 / 20 0 0 0 GNV 72 57 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 74 60 76 53 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-470. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ452-454-472-474.