textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Increasing Daily Thunderstorm and Heavy Downpour Coverage. Waves of Heavy Downpours May Increase the Threat for Localized Flooding this Weekend and into Next Week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk all Area Beaches through Monday

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Increase Next Week. Strong & Gusty Northeast Winds Arrive Monday Night. Gale Conditions Likely for the Atlantic Waters Tuesday through Wednesday. Deadly Rip Currents, Rough Surf & Substantial Beach Erosion Likely. Moderate Tidal Flooding Risk Tuesday through Thursday Along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway & Tidal Tributaries of the St. Johns & St. Marys River Basins

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening; Highest coverage inland areas along the Suwannee river and interior Southeast GA.

- Localized heavy downpours may lead to brief periods of flooding, especially for inland areas.

Residual high clouds and light rain showers persist early this morning as the deep tropical moisture tap remains intact amid southerly flow. This morning's moisture influx will "reload" the atmosphere as upper ridging becomes centered over southern Florida.

Deep moisture, with precipitable 2-2.3", will fuel showers and thunderstorms along the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes during the early afternoon. Meanwhile, another embedded impulse will track northeastward across the northern Gulf coast and toward the Suwannee River valley and inland SE GA during the mid to late afternoon. Convection and broader areas of rain that develop with the impulse will likely interact with the sea breeze and the outflow boundaries through the late afternoon and into the early evening. Like this evening, the airmass should be worked over and coverage of showers will dwindle through the evening.

While numerous showers are expected inland, the potential for locally heavy rain remains a bit too spotty to warrant a Flood Watch for this afternoon's activity. Like yesterday, there is potential for heavy downpours to train locally and lead to 2-4" of rain and localized flooding. Highest concern for isolated flooding will be across the Suwannee Valley and interior areas of southeast GA. Slowing and veering mid level winds will also lead to more gradual storm motion today, around 5-10 mph, and generally heading north- northeast.

Blanketing cloud cover and potential showers through the morning and afternoon along with showers will limit afternoon highs to the mid 80s. Another seasonably mild night in the low to mid 70s is expected once again. Cloud cover will limit fog development but patchy light fog may form, especially over soggy grounds in inland areas.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal rain chances continue into next week. Localized heavy downpours and flooding possible.

A frontal boundary will shift south across the area on Sunday, pushing towards southern locations by the overnight hours into Monday. With elevated moisture aloft, PWATs from 2" to 2.5", numerous to widespread showers is expected on Sunday as waves of heavy downpours develop. The focus for most showers will likely be for locations across SE GA due to the proximity of the frontal boundary. As such, the Weather Prediction Center is highlighting a majority of SE GA under a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (Level 2 of 4) and all of NE FL under a Marginal Risk. With the waves of heavy downpours, there will be the threat of localized flooding with the training showers and storms. A similar patter of widespread showers and isolated storms is forecast as moisture levels remain elevated on Monday.

With the passing showers and cloud cover over the area, daytime highs in the upper 80s is forecast for much of the area on Sunday with locations across north central FL possibly reaching into the lower 90s. By Monday, the sinking cold front and continued showers and cloud cover will bring cooler temperatures across the area with upper 70s to mid 80s from SE GA and south towards the I-10 corridor in NE FL, with mid to upper 80s across north central FL.

Similar pattern in overnight Lows with lower 70s area wide on Sunday night, and then Monday night will bring mid to upper 60s across SE GA towards the I-10 corridor and then lower 70s across north central FL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Strong northeast flow pattern through midweek, with potential for Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding, Deadly Surf, and Gusty Coastal Conditions.

- Potential for rounds of heavy rainfall, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out

A local nor'easter is expected to develop behind as an area of low pressure develops along the stalled frontal boundary to the northeast of the area. With a tight gradient between the low pressure to the northeast of the area and high pressure over the Great Lakes region, strong winds are expected to develop over the local waters and coastal locations of SE GA and NE FL. There could be a need for Wind Advisories along coastal locations through midweek. With the elevated northeasterly winds persisting for much of the upcoming week, tidal flooding will also be of concern as the astronomical tides begin increasing with the approaching New Moon, with minor to possible low-end Moderate tidal flooding potentially into next weekend. Dangerous surf conditions, Rip Currents, and minor to moderate beach erosion will also be likely due to the elevated winds. Periods of heavy downpours with any showers or storms that develop during the period as moisture levels remain elevated .

Temperatures will trend below average this period.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Light showers developing across SGJ and CRG this morning will lift northward but are not expected to introduce flight restrictions. Localized light fog at VQQ will lift in the next hour. MVFR ceilings at SGJ will gradually lift by 15Z.

Unsettled weather will redevelop again this afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze develops. Embedded thunderstorms are possible but are anticipated to be isolated in nature. Heavy downpours will lead to occasional visibility restrictions to IFR or LIFR levels through the afternoon. Highest TSRA chances will be at KGNV and other terminals along the I-75 corridor this afternoon and early evening. Residual showers may work back toward the Atlantic coast after 00z this evening. Outside of shower and storm influence winds will favor an easterly direction around 5-10 knots.

MARINE

Southeasterly wind continues over the weekend with waves of showers and thunderstorms moving from south to north. Outside of thunderstorm activity, winds and seas are expected to remain below Caution levels through at least Monday afternoon.

Deteriorating conditions are expected Tuesday as cold front enters and stalls over the area waters. Following the front, a strong high pressure building will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, initiating a prolonged surge of strong northeasterly winds and high seas across our local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely by Tuesday, with the potential for wind gusts near Gale force through Thursday. Northeasterly winds are expected to gradually decrease through Friday, allowing seas to lower thereafter.

Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds and 2 to 3 foot breakers will maintain a higher end moderate risk at all area beaches through Monday. Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop on Tuesday as northeasterly winds strengthen, with the likelihood for very rough surf and deadly rip currents from Tuesday through the end of next week, with breakers potentially building to 8-10 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 6-8 feet at the southeast GA beaches by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT - Week

Waves of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected over the weekend and through next week, due to an inverted trough over the Gulf, and its associated frontal boundary which will gradually sink south across the area. Lower mixing heights across much of the area will lead to poor Dispersions to develop through the weekend and into next week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop just to the northeast Tuesday, bringing elevated northeasterly winds to the area, especially along coastal locations.

Fog Potential...Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Gusty and erratic winds in and near thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible each day this period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 84 72 84 70 / 60 50 80 90 SSI 83 75 85 72 / 40 30 70 80 JAX 85 73 87 71 / 60 20 80 70 SGJ 85 76 87 73 / 40 20 70 60 GNV 85 72 88 72 / 60 50 70 60 OCF 87 74 90 73 / 60 70 50 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.