textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at all Beaches through Memorial Day

- Daily chances for Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Today, through the upcoming Week.

- Daily Heat Index 95-105F During the Next Several Days

- Historic Drought & Elevated Wildfire Danger Continues

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and localized flooding this evening for inland counties, west of I-95.

- High Risk of Rip Currents Continues at all area beaches this afternoon.

Showers and storms are beginning to creep into the area, with activity along the western counties of NE FL with the Gulf breeze and activity along the coast with the Atlantic sea breeze. Activity is expected to increase as the afternoon progresses and along the breezes as they meet along the interior areas of NE FL and SE GA. With a good amount of moisture aloft (Latest Satellite obs: PWATs ~1.8"), periods of heavy downpours will be possible, with slow moving storms bringing the potential for localized flooding. Additionally could also have a few of the stronger storms reach severe levels with winds of 40-60mph and frequent lightning strikes. Activity will begin to lessen during the early evenings as a few lingering showers and storms will be present during the overnight hours into Monday.

Highs, outside of showers and storms, will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the inland locations, with the mid 80s along coastal locations. Overnight Lows in the 70s area-wide, with a few locations in the upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

- Summer-like pattern continues - Daily inland thunderstorms - Heat index 95-100 degrees

Daily showers develop along both inland progressing east and west coast sea breezes by late morning with further blossoming and strengthening of showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Expect better coverage and stronger intensity of storms Monday especially across southeast GA late day where surface convergence, deeper moisture and passing short wave trough energy coincides. Lower coverage of storms expected across northeast FL with weaker dynamics in place under more influence of the mid level ridge. Tuesday, mid and upper level subsidence increases across coastal areas and northeast Florida which will bring a decrease coverage of showers/storms and focus the higher rain chances once again across inland southeast GA. A few strong storms are possible near boundary mergers each afternoon and evening, with isolated pulse severe storms possible Monday afternoon across inland southeast GA. The main storm hazards will be gusty wet downbursts of 40-60 mph and localized, briefly flooding rainfall.

Due to more convection across southeast GA, daytime highs will trend near to below climo in the mid to upper 80s with the hottest temperatures focused across inland northeast FL where highs will reach the lower 90s. Heat index values will range between 95 to 105 degrees. Overnight conditions will be muggy with lows in upper 60s to mid 70s coast and localized fog/mist where recent heavy rainfall occurred.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Thursday through Sunday...

- Daily Thunderstorm Chances - Slight Risk of Heavy Rainfall Late Next Weekend

The 1000-500 mb mean layer Bermuda Ridge axis begins to shift farther east and south of the local region with a transition to a more unsettled, wetter southwest steering flow pattern into next weekend. Above average precipitable water content is forecast to range between 1.65 - 2 inches (average for early June is 1.4 to 1.5 inches). This general pattern indicates a dominant west coast sea breeze regime Thu & Fri with higher afternoon and evening storm coverage east of Highway 301 toward the Atlantic coast. Then, not a classic diurnal pattern into next weekend with more widespread periods of rainfall as the upper trough moves across the deep south with upper level lift, a weak surface front, and daily sea breezes interacting with deep layer moisture to bring periods of heavy rainfall and a localized flooding rain risk where grounds may become briefly saturated. The CPC US Week 2 Hazard Outlook does have much of the FL peninsula and coastal SE GA flagged in a "Slight Risk" of heavy rainfall. Still too far out for specific rainfall amounts, but given the long term drought, rain over the next week will be welcomed by most.

With increased cloud cover and storminess, high temperatures will trend below average generally in the 80s with muggy lows in the 70s to mid 60s for parts of inland SE GA early next week on the northern side of the lingering front.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Showers and storms are scattered across the area this afternoon, will likely increase in coverage as the sea breeze continues it's inland push. Occasional TSRA impacts along the I-95 corridor and inland locations. With convection, anticipate brief heavy downpours that may lead IFR to LIFR visibility. Activity should begin to dwindle by the early hours, with a few lingering showers near SSI through 07Z. Brief periods of low ceilings during the overnight hours may bring impacts to GNV/VQQ, with lower visibility possible.

MARINE

Showers and storms will filter across the waters this afternoon and into the evening hours, with Exercise Caution conditions developing with increased winds. The influence of Bermuda high pressure will continue a south to southeasterly wind over the waters through the upcoming week. Isolated to scattered showers and offshore thunderstorms on Memorial Day and Tuesday. Daily afternoon and evening surges are expected with winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Atlantic high pressure will then shift southward around Thursday this week,increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across our area as prevailing winds become southerly.

Rip Currents:

Due to breezy onshore winds this afternoon, and surf around 3-4 feet, there will be a High Risk at all area beaches through this afternoon and evening. High risk is likely to continue into Monday due the afternoon southeasterly wind surge.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Monday And Tuesday Ocala Nf

Summer-like pattern continues over the next couple of days with afternoon showers and storms forming along the inland progressing Atlantic coast and Gulf coast sea breezes. The higher coverage of storms will focus across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee River Valley in the late afternoon and evening. Storms will fade after sunset through midnight with mostly dry conditions by daybreak and some patchy fog where recent rainfall occurred. Minimum humidity will remain above critical values. Gusty east to southeast winds will trail the afternoon sea breeze as it pushes inland toward the Highway 301 corridor each afternoon with peak sea breeze gusts near 25 mph. Localized high dispersions due to hot temperatures and elevated transport winds across northeast Florida, especially near the Ocala National Forest.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week. Erratic winds during periods of thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 68 87 69 89 / 70 80 60 70 SSI 76 86 77 87 / 40 20 30 20 JAX 74 89 75 91 / 30 30 20 30 SGJ 76 89 77 90 / 20 30 10 20 GNV 72 91 73 93 / 40 50 50 40 OCF 73 91 74 91 / 40 40 40 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.