textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- NorEaster Conditions Gradually Easing Today. Breezy to Gusty Winds this Afternoon, up to 35 mph Gusts at the Beaches. Numerous Strong Rip Currents and High Surf. Minor Tidal Flooding Portions of St Johns River south of the Buckman Bridge at High Tide This Morning

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide. Low Inland Humidity Will Lead to Elevated Fire Danger Potential This Weekend

- Patchy Morning Fog Possible Inland This Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Today and Tonight:

- Strong onshore winds; Coastal Wind Advisory

- Life-threatening Surf Zone Conditions

- Early morning coastal flooding along southern St Johns River areas

Breezy northeasterly winds will continue on through through today and tonight with wind speeds strengthening in the afternoon to about 10-15 mph with gusts of up to 30-35 mph along the coast and 25-30 mph over inland areas possible. Scattered showers with a potential for thunderstorms will develop along the coast and press inland today in association with the weak coastal trough, with areas near and south of the I-10 corridor most likely to be affected with developments becoming more diminished later this evening. Coastal flooding conditions occurring for areas along the St Johns River south of the Buckman bridge is expected to lessen by midmorning as tides recede. High temperatures this afternoon will reach into the mid to upper 70s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s for areas nearer to the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 50s for inland southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 50s for inland northeast Florida, with min temps along the coast in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents & Elevated Surf Persist at Beaches - Patchy Inland Fog possible inland during the morning hours this weekend

A transition to a warming, mostly sunny, and dry conditions will occur through the weekend. Low level ridging will promote an onshore breeze each day while upper ridge begins to stack over the forecast area through Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate that a prominent dry airmass in above 850mb will negate any attempts of buildups along the Atlantic sea breeze.

Highs Friday will moderate to near normal along the coast in the mid 70s with highs bumping above normal into the lower 80s. As ridging builds overhead, temperatures will warm 2-4 degrees over the weekend.

With calming conditions inland Friday and Saturday night, there will be conditions favorable for shallow fog development toward daybreak Saturday and Sunday mornings.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming temperatures and fair sensible weather - Elevated to High Wildfire Danger will be possible inland each day

Prolonged period of dry and above normal temperatures through next week as stubborn upper ridging remains anchored over the forecast area at least Wednesday before breaking down. This will favor continued warming trend with inland highs flirting with 90 degrees again by the middle of next week. These warm temperatures will intensify the thermal trough, enhancing the winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze. Hotter and rain-free conditions may enhance local wildfire danger next week due multiple days of low afternoon humidity and critically dry fuels.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

NE Winds continue through the period, with MVFR ceilings throughout the day as convection will primarily be focused over southern locations around SGJ through the afternoon and then becoming dispersed by around 00z. Gusty winds will persist through a majority of the forecasted period with stronger winds affecting coastal sites, with winds tapering off by 05Z for inland sites.

MARINE

Strong high pressure will be centered the north northeast through today, with an inverted trough to the south. The high will weaken as it settles over the southeastern US on Friday. The high will move off to the northeast over the weekend, and more toward the east northeast next week.

Rip Currents and Surf: A reinforced surge of onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through Thursday. As the strongest winds during this event arrive today breakers will rise to 10-13 feet. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible.

Rip Currents and Surf:

A reinforced surge of onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through Thursday. As the strongest winds during this event arrive today breakers will rise to 10-13 feet. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible.

FIRE WEATHER

ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR PORTIONS OF SE GA NORTHWEST OF WAYCROSS - Today - Areas Of High Dispersions Each Afternoon Through Monday - Lowering Humidity Trend Inland This Weekend And Next Week

Breezy easterly winds will continue but be much lighter than yesterday, with gusts 20 to 25 mph inland and up to 30 mph at the coast. Humidity will fall near 30 percent for portions of southeast GA, northwest of Waycross, and combine with breezy conditions to elevate fire danger. Temperatures will trend warmer and inland afternoon humidity lower through the weekend and into next week as an upper level ridge builds over FL and GA. Low humidity and a gusty easterly sea breeze is likely to set up elevated fire weather conditions throughout next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected this morning or Friday morning. Patchy fog potential increases over the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

Days of strong onshore flow have "trapped" tidal flow in the middle St. Johns River basin. This has pushed tide gauges to read at "Action" levels. The next high tide is likely to raise the stage to "Minor" flood levels during the mid to late morning hours for portions of the river south of the Buckman Bridge. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued to highlight elevated tidal levels this morning. This will be revisited to address the potential for flooding during the evening high tide, once we assess this morning's tidal behavior on that stretch of the river. Only minor impacts are expected with water levels at 1.5-1.75 feet above normally dry ground.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 75 51 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 61 72 61 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 72 58 77 57 / 20 10 10 0 SGJ 74 63 76 62 / 40 10 10 10 GNV 77 56 81 56 / 20 0 0 0 OCF 77 58 82 57 / 30 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ132- 137-633. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.