textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Daily Mainly Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Today Thu: Mainly Inland Northeast Florida (between HWY 301 & I-75). Fri Weekend: Increasing chances including Southeast GA

- High Risk for Rip Currents Northeast Florida Beaches Today

- Moderate Risk at Southeast Georgia Beaches

- Minor River Flooding for Satilla River

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

Evening showers and isolated storms will quickly fade across the Suwannee River Valley while tracking to the WSW, with drier air infiltrating across Southeast GA and northeast FL tonight. Precipitable water (PWAT) will fall below 1 inch, which is near record low PWAT for the date. The 00z JAX PWAT min is 1.03" and satellite showed an area of < 1.00" PWAT offshore of Carolinas heading toward the local area from the NE. This drier mid and upper level air will limit overnight coastal shower activity to isolated at best and mainly near and south of the St. Augustine coast where shallow moisture will be greatest, otherwise dry weather tonight with some patchy inland fog especially where rainfall occurs today. Minimum temperatures will fall into the mid & upper 60s across inland southeast GA and the northern Suwannee River Valley due to drier air, with lows in the low & mid 70s toward the Atlantic coast where weak onshore flow continues overnight.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Afternoon Thunderstorms Mainly Over Inland Northeast Florida - Elevated Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

Thursday late morning, onshore winds will bring showers near the northeast Florida coast, and by the afternoon we will see isolated showers and storms over inland northeast Florida. Drier air will remain in place and limit storm potential along and north of I-10.

Friday, steering flow begins to shift to southeasterly, bringing in some more moisture across the area. Areas southeast of Waycross will see isolated to scattered storms, with highest coverage over north central Florida in the afternoon and evening.

High temperatures both days will be in the lower to mid 90s inland, and with onshore winds keeping coastal highs in the upper 80s. 'Drier' air Thursday will limit max heat indices in the 95-100 range, and with more moisture Friday they will rise a little bit more to near 105 for portions of northeast FL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Higher Storm Chances Return for Much of the Area - Building Heat for Southeast GA

Steering flow becomes more southerly Saturday, increasing storm chances, especially over inland northeast Florida both Saturday and Sunday. PWATs generally over 2.0" inches and interacting sea breezes will prompt heavy rainfall and gusty wind threats with any strong storm developments in the afternoons and evenings each day. Temperatures will be above normal, with highs in the lower to upper 90s through Tuesday, even at the immediate Atlantic coast due to the southwesterly winds. Maximum heat indices will generally range from 100-108 degrees each afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

VFR conds with diminishing winds this evening at all terminals except for SGJ where a few isolated showers (VCSH) continue to push onshore with the occasional MVFR CIG until 02-03Z or so. Light winds inland will allow for some low MVFR fog potential at VQQ from 07- 11Z. Onshore flow continues on Thursday and will allow for isolated showers (VCSH) to develop in low level convergence after sunrise and have added to all NE FL terminals slowly in the 13-16Z time frame, but still too dry at SSI for any VCSH at this time. East winds increase back to 11-12G17-18 knots by the afternoon hours with low chances of isolated showers (VCSH) continuing through the day.

MARINE

Gusty easterly winds today between high pressure northeast of the region and an inverted trough offshore of the southeast coast. Morning showers will shift inland into the afternoon. The trough lingers but weakens Thursday into Friday with a dominant east coast sea breeze regime shifting morning showers inland into the afternoon each day. High pressure builds across central and south Florida this weekend into early next week with a transition to south to southwest flow over the local waters and high afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances over the local waters and nightly wind surges near exercise caution levels.

Rip Currents:

Stronger onshore winds today and combined seas increased the rip current risk to High for northeast Florida beaches. A moderate rip current continues for southeast GA beaches today. All local beaches are highlighted under a moderate risk for Thursday at this time due to persistent, but weaker east winds.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Over Interior Se Georgia Thursday

Onshore flow will continue Thursday as strong high pressure remains to our north. The high pressure and drier airmass will limit shower and t'storm chances over most of the area Thursday. With the drier air and sufficient mixing, minRH values will fall into the 30-35% range for inland southeast GA Thursday afternoon/evening. Shower and t'storm chances gradually return further north and west Friday, but especially for the upcoming holiday weekend. Dispersions overall look to be on a downward trend for the rest of the week after today.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not anticipated through the period. Any stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and strong, erratic wind gusts, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.

HYDROLOGY

Satilla River at Atkinson will remain in Minor Flood through the weekend but will continue to gradually lower.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 68 97 69 97 / 10 10 0 10 SSI 77 89 77 89 / 0 10 10 10 JAX 71 91 73 91 / 0 20 10 30 SGJ 74 90 75 91 / 10 20 20 30 GNV 69 95 72 94 / 0 30 0 30 OCF 70 94 72 94 / 10 30 10 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.