textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Periods of Showers & Tstorms Today. A Couple of Strong Storms are Possible Across Northeast FL this afternoon.

- Locally dense fog possible along I-75, Gainesville Southward this morning.

- Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds Expected Next Week. Increasing Marine Hazards Likely by Tuesday and Wednesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT:

- Localized Dense Fog for I-75 Areas from Gainesville South this AM - Scattered T'storms For NE FL this Afternoon, Capable of Gusty Winds

A cold front to the northwest will be energized over the next couple of hours by a quickly amplifying mid level trough. This will organize storms into a semi-QLCS feature as it pushes into the Deep South through the predawn hours. The upper level trough will weaken as the prefrontal trough approaches resulting in a downward trend in convective activity as it reaches a more stable airmass across SE GA by daybreak.

To the south, the very subtle southwesterly flow will attempt to push a low stratus and areas of fog across portions of north-central FL through the morning, which may lead to localized dense fog along portions of I-75.

For today, the weakening prefrontal convection will push across SE GA with a few rumbles of thunder possible, but this will largely just be rain. The prefrontal trough will become fairly diffuse as it settles across NE FL this afternoon. Upper level divergence downstream from the trough axis will provide enough lift to generate widespread showers and scattered embedded thunderstorms south of I- 10 during the early evening commute hours (4-7pm) where the best heating (highs in the low 80s) and instability (CAPE 400-600 J/kg) will be. Weak lapse rates aloft will work against any particularly strong convection development this afternoon, however, a few gusts 30-50 mph cannot be entirely ruled out with storm motion generally toward the east around 25-30 mph.

Rainfall doesn't appear to be as much of soaker as previously forecasted, but beneficial nonetheless. Amounts for the event are generally less than an inch and closer to a half inch.

Scattered showers will linger through most of the night along the still quite diffuse frontal zone stretched across northern FL. Showers will final exit around day break Saturday as northwesterly flow increases in the wake of the mid level trough axis. Less shower activity across portions of SE GA may lead to more extensive stratus development and possibly patchy dense fog for inland areas from Waycross westward early Saturday AM.

Mild temperatures this morning will rise across NE FL ahead of the rain/embedded storms today, reaching the low 80s while cloud cover and shower activity keep SE GA in the low/mid 70s this afternoon. Moisture staying in place will allow another mild night to unfold tonight with lows in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Thunderstorms are possible early in the day across the north- central FL areas

The frontal boundary will sink to the south of the region Saturday, as high pressure builds to the north. An inverted trough is expected to develop over the coastal waters Saturday night through Sunday night.

Precipitation will decrease in coverage from north to south as the front departs Saturday, with a few thunderstorms possible.

There is a low chance for Coastal showers Sunday and Sunday night.

While inland temperatures will trend a bit above average, the onshore flow will keep readings cooler at the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Coastal showers will be possible each day this period.

High pressure will strengthen to the north Monday and Tuesday, with the coastal trough remaining. With the coastal trough strengthening, the chance for coastal showers will increase.

The high will pull to the northeast and weaken Wednesday through Thursday. The chance for coastal showers will continue due to onshore flow, but chances will be less as coastal trough will weaken.

Temperatures this period will trend above seasonal averages.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

VFR high clouds, except at KGNV where low stratus and patchy fog may develop at LIFR to IFR thresholds.

VFR conditions are expected as rain and embedded storms head toward KSSI around the noon hour. The weakening front will progress southward and a few thunderstorms may develop across NE FL, with best chances of a late afternoon storm at KGNV and KSGJ.

Mostly VFR cloud cover is expected but brief MVFR conditions are possible with heavy showers and isolated storms. Activity will shift offshore between 00z-02z this evening with vicinity showers lingering through the evening with light variable winds. Southwesterly winds with gusts up to 20 knots will be possible ahead of the rain at NE FL airfields late this morning through the early to mid afternoon.

MARINE

Light to moderate offshore breezes continue this morning ahead of a weakening front that will spread showers and embedded storms into the waters this afternoon. The front will slow as it enters the waters and stall to the south, near Cape Canaveral, on Saturday. Low pressure developing along the front will result in breezy north winds across the waters and waves of showers until the low moves northeast away from the coast Saturday night. High pressure will lead to a light onshore flow before a possible strong surge of northeast winds reaches the waters with a back door cold front on Monday. Winds will turn more onshore through the middle of next week with coastal troughs developing bouts of showers over the waters.

Rip Currents: A low risk through Saturday due to light winds and lower swell periods, with a moderate risk returning by Sunday and Monday due to gradually strengthening onshore winds that will continue through all of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Ne Fl Today - Patchy Low Dispersions Se Ga Today - Areas Of Low Dispersions Saturday - Patchy High Dispersions Monday, Tuesday And Wednesday

A frontal system will slowly move south across the area Today into Saturday. High pressure will build to the north Saturday afternoon. The high will strengthen to the north early in the week, with a trough over the coastal waters. High pressure will build further away to the northeast mid week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Potential for dense fog over NE FL this morning. Thunderstorms are possible Today through Saturday, with a few strong storms possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 69 53 69 48 / 90 40 40 0 SSI 70 55 63 52 / 90 70 40 10 JAX 79 55 69 50 / 80 60 50 0 SGJ 80 57 68 53 / 70 80 60 10 GNV 81 57 75 51 / 60 60 60 10 OCF 80 58 76 52 / 60 80 70 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.