textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today

- Locally Dense Fog Across Southeast GA Early on Tues Morning

- Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations this week

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area- Wide this weekend

- Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches

- Locally Dense Fog inland areas this morning and again late Tonight

Surface high pressure ridge axis will remain stationed just north of the region with an easterly steering flow through the period. Drier air mass for mid-May time frame with PWATs less than 1.5 inches will only support widely scattered showers and isolated storms at times over the Atlantic Coastal waters and near the coast at night then moving inland across Northeast Florida and the I-75 corridor during the afternoon hours as the breezy East Coast sea breeze pushes inland with sustained winds around 15 mph with frequent gusts to 20- 25 mph at times. Max temps will remain slightly above normal with highs in the lower 90s inland, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Boundary layer cooling over inland areas will support low temps in the 60s and locally dense fog during the late night/early morning hours, but likely not significant enough to become widespread at this time. Onshore flow will keep Atlantic Coastal Min temps in the lower/middle 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor.

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely into midweek.

High pressure remains over the western Atlantic as onshore flow persist through midweek. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms continue to be focused over inland locations, particularly over NE FL on Wednesday. By Thursday, chances of precipitation lessen a bit, but will still have isolated activity as the sea breeze moves inland during the afternoon hours. The persistent east- southeast flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up range from 15 mph to 20 mph each afternoon. Warm temperatures continue through midweek as daytime highs each afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior to the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will have highs in the mid 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

- Warm temperatures continue through the weekend

- Increasing chances of showers and storms into and through the upcoming holiday weekend into next week.

A frontal boundary pushing towards the SE US is expected to slow and stall north of the local area, while high pressure over the western Atlantic begins to shift east. With less influence from the high pressure, the onshore flow will become more southeasterly-southerly on Friday and through the weekend. This will allow for the inland push of both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze each afternoon. PWATs will trend towards the 1.5" to 1.75" range, possibly as high as 2" for some locations over SE GA by Sunday, which could lead to locally heavy downpours for any storms that develop. Chances of showers currently is forecast in the 40% to 50% with wider coverage of showers and storms as the sea breezes push inland and meet towards central locations of the area.

The warm temperatures will continue through the weekend as highs will rise to lower to mid 90s across inland locations outside of convective activity, while the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the 70s area-wide.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Onshore flow will create the potential for MVFR restrictions in stratus near the coast early this morning. Further inland, fog formation will lead to potential IFR/MVFR restrictions at VQQ and GNV towards sunrise (08-12Z)

For Tuesday, conditions will trend to VFR during the mid to late morning hours, and continue through the afternoon. There is a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland Tuesday, which could affect GNV. At this point it is too early to place restrictions in GNV TAF for what is expected to be only isolated convection.

East to Southeast winds expected to increase once again to 10-14G15- 21 knots during the afternoon hours as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland past the terminals, then fades after sunset Tuesday evening.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure centered to Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states through the end of the week. Prevailing east to southeasterly winds will continue across our local waters during the next several days. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week. Caution conditions will again be possible for the near shore waters from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda.

Rip Currents:

Persistent east to southeast winds and surf of 2-4 ft will keep a high risk of rip currents in place Today and at least a moderate risk at area beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, with high risks again possible from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening easterly wind surges potentially return.

FIRE WEATHER

`...PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEK...

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon through the week. Easterly to southeasterly winds persists through the week, allowing for moisture to continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week. With the onshore flow from the Atlantic, convective activity will be possible each afternoon to evening as the sea breeze pushes inland. By the weekend, increase chances and coverage of showers and storms is expected.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms through the week. each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for inland locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 91 63 90 66 / 20 0 10 0 SSI 82 71 84 74 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 88 67 89 69 / 10 0 10 0 SGJ 86 71 87 72 / 20 10 10 0 GNV 92 67 92 69 / 30 0 30 0 OCF 93 67 91 70 / 40 10 30 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.