textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated chances of showers Thursday afternoon - Heat Advisory Thursday. Peak Heat Index 108-111 for most areas. Heat Risk remains through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Beaches Thursday

UPDATE

Few lingering showers over the area will begin to clear in the next couple of hours. A light southwesterly flow and warm temperatures, in the mid to upper 70s, will be in place during the overnight hours. Another Heat Advisory was issued across the area for Thursday, as Heat Index values are expected in the 108F to 111F range from late morning and through the early evening hours.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During This Period:

- Heat Advisory for Thursday Afternoon and potentially Friday Afternoon - Lower convective chances

Upper air ridging strengthens, limiting convection for the end of the work week. Precipitation chances Thursday remain isolated over north central Florida and the northeast FL coast south of St. Augustine in the afternoon and evening where some moisture lingers, with northeast Florida and southeast Georgia likely remaining dry on Friday. With mostly sunny skies and very limited showers and storms, dangerous heat will be the main concern both days. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast as southwesterly winds continue. Afternoon heat indices will approach 102-110 degrees both days, Heat Advisories may be necessary for portions of northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights During This Period:

- Heat Advisory potential Saturday Afternoon - Convective chances increase Sunday Onward

Convection will gradually increase daily Saturday onward, with coverage Saturday mainly isolated to scattered as both sea breezes push inland. Sunday, stronger southwest flow will bring higher convective chances closer to the I-95 corridor to the coast where the Gulf sea breeze meets the pinned Atlantic sea breeze later in the afternoon. Afternoon max heat index values remain dangerously high Saturday, approaching Heat Advisory conditions. By Sunday, temperatures drop a few degrees area-wide as more storms are expected.

Monday and Tuesday, precipitation chances increase to near 60-70% as a front approaches from the north. Higher cloud cover and storm chances will lower temperatures back to near normal in the lower to mid 90s to start off the new week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

The last lingering showers/storms will move offshore early this evening, with VFR conditions developing during the overnight hours with typical MVFR fog at VQQ from 07-11Z. SW flow develops again Thursday morning with SCT clouds developing between 2000-3000 ft by 14Z once again. Showers and storms look to be limited to southern locations of the area, and then towards the coast by the afternoon. Only put mention of VCSH for now for SGJ around 19Z as Atlantic seabreeze moves inland.

MARINE

High pressure ridge will remain anchored across central and south Florida this week as low pressure troughing develops to the north. This pattern will maintain a southwest flow through early afternoon followed by late afternoon and evening wind surges from the south to Small Craft Exercise Caution wind speeds. The offshore flow will allow for a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorm over the local coastal waters each day through the week. Mariners should expect locally strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with any developing thunderstorms.

Rip Currents:

Low to moderate risk of rip currents continues through the end of the week due to fairly low surf conditions from prevailing offshore flow. Some enhanced potential still looks likely for the northern beaches by late afternoon from Mayport northward due to stronger southeast wind component each day. Surf remains generally in the 1-2 feet range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersion North Of I-10 Through The Week

High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Monday, with drier than normal conditions forecast through Saturday. This will lead to above average temperatures and dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values through Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Sunday, with patchy to areas of high afternoon dispersion north of I-10 expected each day. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above critical values. Precipitation chances increase early next week as a front approaches from the north.

Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows.

CLIMATE

Summer heat is certainly here. There is potential for some locations to get to the century mark today with probability of this occurrence at about 20-30 percent. These probabilities look a bit higher for Thursday and Friday.

For the next few days, here are the record high temperatures that are within 3 degrees of the current forecast:

July 8th: KJAX: 100/1879 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 100/2016

July 9th: KJAX: 101/1879 KGNV: 99/1932 KAMG: 100/1986 KCRG: 101/2016

July 10th: KJAX: 102/1879 KGNV: 99/1914 KAMG: 99/1980 KCRG: 99/2016

July 11th: KGNV: 100/1900 KAMG: 100/1980 KCRG: 99/1998

July 12th: KGNV: 99/1902 KCRG: 99/1981

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 76 97 77 97 / 0 10 0 0 SSI 78 97 80 97 / 10 10 0 10 JAX 76 98 77 99 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 77 97 78 96 / 10 10 0 10 GNV 74 97 75 97 / 10 0 0 10 OCF 74 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533- 633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None.