textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Continue through early Evening,

- With Breezy & Low Daytime Humidity

- Smoke Impacting Portions of Southeast GA and Northeast FL. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality | Monitor Using airnow.gov

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Thunderstorms Tonight & Sunday

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Today

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm chances today and tonight

Scattered showers with possible thunderstorms are anticipated to develop through the afternoon and into this evening in association with an upper level short wave and increased moisture levels moving in over the region from out of the west, with convection more likely to develop along diurnal sea breeze boundaries and areas of convergence. Main threat from storms that may form today will be gusty winds and lightning. High temperatures today will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s over inland areas and in the lower 80s for areas along the shoreline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 60s over inland areas and in the mid 60s for areas nearer to the coast. Potential for low cloud decks and patchy fog developments to form over inland areas during the overnight and early Sunday morning hours.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances throughout this period

A cold front will sink to near the FL/GA line Sunday, and be a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area. The front will push to south Sunday night, as high pressure builds to the north northeast. Precipitation chances will diminish Sunday evening as the front moves away.

High pressure ridge will continue to build from the northeast Monday into Monday night.

Temperatures will be above normal Sunday, then below Monday as cooler air advects in behind the front.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday

The high will weaken and move away Tuesday into Tuesday night, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

The cold front will move into southern GA Wednesday, and move south of the area Thursday night. The front will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms.

Weak high pressure will build Friday, before another cold front moves into region Saturday. A low chance for precipitation is forecast for Friday, but greater chances Saturday.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Potential for convection to develop for coastal and Jax metro sites through the afternoon and into this evening with VCSH and VCTS starting around 16z-18z and then clearing out from affected sites by around 00z-03z. Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated for the majority of the forecast period. Winds will become more mild and variable in the evening and overnight hours with a potential for patchy fog affecting the more inland sites, GNV and VQQ around sunrise and then dispersing by around 13z-14z. Winds on Sunday will build in from out of the west by the end of the forecast period.

MARINE

High pressure situated offshore of the southeastern states today will continue to gradually weaken as it shifts eastward. A cold front will then enter the southeastern states later today, possibly helping to develop scattered late afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms across our local waters this weekend. This cold front will cross our local waters on Sunday night, with low pressure along this front strengthening somewhat off the Carolina coast by Monday. Winds will shift to northerly on Sunday night and then northeasterly by Monday morning, with Caution conditions likely due to breezy speeds and building seas through Monday evening. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local waters on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front will then approach our area from the northwest late next week.

Rip Currents:

A lower-end moderate risk of rip currents will likely persist today despite the fairly low wave height of about 2 feet. A lower risk is anticipated Sunday though still may be some locally moderate rip current risk based on NWPS forecasts. Strengthening northeasterly winds and building surf heights will likely bring a moderate to possibly high rip current risk for our local beaches on Monday into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS SUNDAY, MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY THROUGH - Saturday

A frontal boundary will affect the region through Sunday. High pressure ridging will prevail Monday into Tuesday. A frontal boundary will affect the region mid week, and yet another next weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog Tonight and Sunday night. Chances for thunderstorms each day this coming week, except Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites today:

April 25th: JAX 92/1958 CRG 91/2006 GNV 93/1896 AMG 91/1958

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 62 85 63 82 / 60 40 20 10 SSI 66 80 66 73 / 40 50 30 10 JAX 63 85 65 77 / 20 50 30 10 SGJ 64 85 65 79 / 10 40 40 20 GNV 60 87 64 85 / 10 40 20 20 OCF 61 87 64 87 / 0 30 20 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.