textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hot and Humid Today - Peak Heat Index Values: 103- 109

- Afternoon & Evening TStorms Area-Wide Through Most of. Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms this afternoon (2 PM 9 PM). Strong Storms with Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Heavy

- Downpours I-95 & I-10 corridor and all of SE GA this afternoon

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

Convection will end from west to east early this evening, with a dry overnight expected. The chance for strong damaging storms has greatly decreased at this point. However, will keep the Flood Watch going through 11 PM when the potential for heavier rain ends, as it will not take much rainfall to cause flooding due to recent rains. Lows will be near or little below average Tonight.

SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Lower rainfall coverage on Sunday - Heat Advisory conditions likely Monday

Lower coverage of showers and storms through the forecast period moisture levels will be relatively lower compared to the past couple of days. With westerly winds remaining the predominant flow, the Gulf breeze is expected to push inland each afternoon, with scattered showers and storms along the breezes with most activity likely along inland locations towards the I-95 and US-17 corridors. Even with lower chances of precipitation, for any showers or storms that do develop the potential for isolated strong to severe storms remain along with locally heavy downpours.

Temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week and into the upcoming week. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s area-wide. By Monday, Highs are expected to be in the 90s area-wide, with mid 90s in northeast Florida, possibly upper 90s for some locations of inland northeast Florida, with heat index values currently forecast to range near Heat Advisory criteria during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat Advisory conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday - Return to at least scattered afternoon storms mid to late week

Scattered showers and storms through much of the upcoming week as high pressure sits over the region. Warm temperatures will persist across the area as highs will continue in the mid 90s. Daily heat index values near and above heat advisory criteria will likely result in issuance of Heat Advisory each day during the first half of the upcoming week. An approaching frontal boundary is expected to begin to slow and to stall north of the Altamaha river after midweek. But with it remaining north the area, westerly flow is expected to persists through the remainder of the week, with the Gulf breeze remaining the dominant breeze and continuing to direct most convective towards the eastern portions of the local area.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Convection over the local area will come to an end early in this TAF period. VFR conditions are forecast for Tonight and Sunday morning. Convection will initiate early Sunday afternoon, with isolated to scattered storms through the afternoon hours. Brief restrictions in and near storms.

MARINE

A frontal boundary will move toward the area waters tonight but then shift back north. This front will help bring a round of thunderstorms to area waters through tonight. Some of these storms may produce strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and very heavy rain. A good chance of thunderstorms is expected again Sunday afternoon and evening. Weak high pressure ridge will slowly build in over the area waters early Monday and into Tuesday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms returning by midweek as another front moves in from the north. Stronger offshore winds with exercise caution level winds looks possible for offshore waters Monday into Tuesday.

Rip Currents:

Surf cams and wave guidance shows surf about 1 foot or maybe 2 ft at the most. Some wind sea swells, from the southeast at with 1 foot with periods of 6-8 seconds. Probably looking at low risk Sunday and into Monday as well. Noted NWPS rip current probability guidance is generally under 30 percent. Offshore flow is also dominant.

FIRE WEATHER

Lingering showers and storms will push offshore through the early to mid evening hours Tonight. Relatively drier air filters into the region as ridging builds across the FL peninsula, with scattered showers and isolated T'storms expected on Sunday and through midweek. Winds will continue to generally be from the west to southwest through midweek.

Good dispersions expected Sunday afternoon through as clouds limit mixing heights. Higher dispersions develop on Monday and Tuesday mainly over southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida.

Temperatures will rise next week as drier conditions will limit chances for T'storms. A return of potential heat advisory conditions on Monday and Tuesday for portions of northeast Florida.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas that receive heavier rainfall may also experience patchy late-night and early-morning fog. T'storms will produce locally gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 70 89 73 91 / 50 20 10 30 SSI 74 90 77 93 / 70 20 10 30 JAX 71 92 75 95 / 60 40 10 30 SGJ 73 91 76 95 / 60 30 10 30 GNV 72 92 73 95 / 30 40 20 10 OCF 72 92 74 94 / 20 40 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149- 151-152-250. MARINE...None.