textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Windy northeast winds today and tonight with gusts to around 35 mph at the coast. Small Craft Advisory in effect through Thursday.

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches through Friday and high surf advisory through tonight. Rip current remain moderate to high this weekend.

- Drier Conditions Today through Saturday.

NEAR TERM /tODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Elevated and gusty winds Today

High pressure will build to the north through Tonight. Remaining showers over NE FL will end early this morning. The drier and cooler air will filter south across area this period. Highs will be below average Today. Temperatures will be below average Tonight, but there will be a broad range in readings due to onshore flow. Lows in the middle 50s are expected over inland SE GA, while readings only fall into the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rough Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents Thursday to Friday. - Mostly dry conditions

The center of the moderately strong high pressure system will be over north GA to SC on Thursday with onshore flow and dry conditions. Daytime breezy conditions likely for the coastal areas and parts of inland northeast FL given the synoptic flow and the east coast sea breeze. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected and temperatures will moderate slightly, but remain below seasonal normals, with afternoon highs generally in the lower to middle 80s.

Thursday night will feature partly cloudy skies with below normal lows in the upper 50 to lower 60s inland and around 70 degrees near the coast. An isolated coastal shower cannot be ruled out across northeast Florida as weak low-level convergence develops along the Atlantic breeze.

Friday, high pressure system to our north emerges off the southeast coast by Friday night which will cause a slight shift to the southeast, mainly for the inland areas by Friday evening. Largely dry conditions continue for the area with partly to mostly sunny skies. However, can't rule out an isolated shower or two for the northeast FL coast to Putnam or Marion counties. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s inland and mid 80s coast.

Lows around 60 will inland Thu night, then lower 60s inland Fri night. Coastal areas warmer in the lower 70s both nights due to onshore flow.

The main story will be the rough surf and life-threatening rip currents at all beaches, though the surf heights will be on a lowering trend overall.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk of Rip Currents May Continue This Weekend.

- Gradual Warm-Up Forecast through the Weekend with Dry Weather Likely to Continue.

- Better Rain chances Monday and Tuesday.

Through early Monday, broad high pressure system dominates at 500 mb from the Gulf into the southeast states, and then may begin to ease further into the Gulf as mid level troughing digs in over off the east coast. A weak mid-level low over the Bahamas drifts westward into southern Florida and looks to dissipate by early next week so this feature appears to have minimal influence across the local forecast area. At the surface, general ridging extends from the western Atlantic into the Carolinas this weekend. The trough digging in off the east coast early next week may send a weak backdoor front into the region on Monday to Tuesday, which may bump up our rain chances.

A stretch of below-normal precipitation chances is anticipated through much of the weekend. Rain chances generally 10 to 20 percent Sunday, but look to rise to 20-35 percent Monday and by Tuesday up to 40-60 percent as moisture increases and the backdoor front moves toward our area.

Temperatures will steadily moderate and climb to near or above normal this the weekend. Max temps around 90 or lower 90s inland through Monday, and easing down to mid 80s to around 90 on Tuesday as moisture and precip chances increase. Lows moderate as well as moisture increases with low temps near normal and then slightly above normal Monday and Tuesday.

Marine influences will continue to produce elevated surf and a high risk of rip currents probably into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast for this period. Winds will be elevated throughout this period, especially near the coast. The gusts will remain near the coast throughout this period.

MARINE

A cold front will move south into central FL Tonight, as high pressure builds to the north. This high will remain to the north through Thursday, then begin to weaken as it builds more toward the east northeast late in the week and through the weekend.

The elevated onshore flow producing Small Craft Advisory conditions is expected to continue through Thursday.

Rip Currents: High Risk across area beaches through midweek as onshore flow persists.

FIRE WEATHER

- AREAS TO WIDESPREAD HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. - LOW MIN RH INLAND SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON. - AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

Elevated transport winds from the northeast today will support areas of very high daytime dispersion values, especially across inland locations. More easterly transport winds and higher mixing heights on Thursday will again support very high to high daytime dispersion, with values slightly lower on Friday due to weaker winds.

Much drier and cooler pattern today as a cold frontal boundary pushes well south of the area and high pressure system builds to the north. Moderately strong northeast surface and transport winds behind the front will create breezy conditions area wide and support good to high daytime dispersion values. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s inland southeast GA this afternoon.

Despite the drier air mass, recent rainfall and gradually moderating humidity levels should limit significant fire weather concerns.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread fog development is not anticipated over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 79 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 79 71 82 71 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 81 66 84 65 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 81 71 84 70 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 84 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 82 64 84 64 / 10 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday afternoon for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday afternoon for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452- 454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ470-472- 474.