textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Severe TStorms this Afternoon & Evening for Southeast GA. Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning & Heavy Downpours. Localized Flood Threat Extends into Early this Evening for Inland Southeast GA. Strong TStorms with Gusty Winds & Frequent Lightning for Coastal Northeast FL

- Additional Rounds of Downpours & TStorms Tonight through Tuesday. Localized Flood Threat Continues Across Southeast GA

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Wed - Sun. Summertime Heat & Humidity Returns Late this Week & into Upcoming Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This afternoon and Tonight:

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, especially SE GA

The region will be between a nearly stationary frontal zone to the north, and a ridge of high pressure to the south this period. The combination of ample moisture, and convergence ahead of frontal zone will provide above normal chances for showers and thunderstorms. There is a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms, with the greatest chance over SE GA due to proximity of the boundary. Most of the convection will dissipate this evening, although potential for lingering showers into the night.

Highs Today will be near to below average due to cloud and precipitation coverage. Lows Tonight will be near average in the lower to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During This Period:

-Increased storm potential on Tuesday with greatest chance for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall north oF I10

Predominantly westerly flow through Tuesday and then shifting to become more out of the northwest on Wednesday as high pressure over the Florida peninsula moves eastward and drifts northward towards the Gulf. Pattern of daily showers and storms will continue through midweek with convection expected to be more widespread on Tuesday with more dense developments expected to occur over southeast Georgia, nearer to the frontal boundary to the north. High temperatures through midweek will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s for southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 90s over northeast Florida with temps beginning to increase on Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower to mid 70s. Heat index values will are expected to range upwards of above 100, but is likely to remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights During This Period:

- Reduced chances for storms

Easterly prevailing flow will continue through the week as high pressure situated to the south continues to extend to to the west and north with flow becoming less uniform by the weekend as high pressure over waters to the east strengthens off the coast. Daily bouts of showers and storms will continue through into the weekend with convection expected to be less widespread than earlier in the weak as the front to the north become less defined. Above average temperatures, with max temps rising into the mid 90s, will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend with heat index values potentially rising to Heat Advisory levels through the period.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop inland this morning, then move east northeast across the area. This activity will diminish this evening, with a dry overnight forecast. Restrictions and gusty and erratic winds expected in and near thunderstorms.

MARINE

A frontal boundary pushing slowly southward down the South Carolina coast will approach the Georgia waters by Monday evening, with this feature then stalling over the Georgia waters on Tuesday before weakening on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will impact our local waters earlier during the afternoon hours through Wednesday, with a few strong storms containing briefly gusty westerly winds and frequent lightning strikes possible. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease by Thursday and especially on Friday and Saturday as the frontal boundary dissipates, with only isolated to widely scattered late afternoon and early evening activity possible for the near shore waters as a prevailing westerly flow continues during the overnight and morning hours each day.

Rip Currents:

Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights will keep the rip current risk low at area beaches throughout this week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Tuesday Through Thursday

The region will be between high pressure to the south and a gradually weakening frontal zone to the north this week. While daily thunderstorm chances are forecast, above average chances can be expected early in the week. Temperatures will be above average, with a trend upward later in the week.

Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is not expected Tonight. Erratic wind gusts possible in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to outflows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 90 73 88 72 / 80 60 70 40 SSI 90 76 90 76 / 70 50 80 50 JAX 90 74 91 73 / 70 30 70 40 SGJ 91 75 92 75 / 70 20 70 30 GNV 88 73 91 73 / 70 30 60 10 OCF 89 74 92 75 / 60 20 40 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.