textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues Today at the Northeast FL Beaches.

- Unseasonably Dry Weather Continues through Monday with a Gradual Warming Trend.

- Breezy Onshore Winds Redevelop on Tuesday and Wednesday, Increasing the Threat for Rip Currents at Area Beaches.

- Gradually Increasing Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier Than Normal Conditions Continue.

- Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents At Area Beaches.

Dry and a little bit warmer conditions expected today with a slightly lighter east to southeasterly flow around 10-15 mph. This occurs as a result of surface high pressure drifting increasingly east of the region throughout the day and into tonight, while mid/upper level ridging and subsidence increases. Subsidence and PWATs remaining below 1 inch will continue to curtail any rain chances, with only some scattered diurnal cumulus expected to develop in addition to some high clouds bleeding over from the dirty ridge aloft. High temps will run mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spots in the low 90s possible towards the Suwannee River Valley area. Some high clouds look to stick around tonight which brings some uncertainty regarding radiational cooling despite light to near calm winds, though still opted to go a bit below most guidance given the drier than usual conditions continuing. Some patchy fog will also be possible inland, albeit chances are only in the 5-10% range. Expecting mainly low to mid 60s inland, and mid 60s to low 70s for the St. Johns River Basin and coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy Fog Possible Early on Saturday and Sunday Mornings at Inland Locations.

- Unseasonably Dry Conditions with Inland Temperatures Warming to the Low and Mid 90s this Weekend.

Deep-layered ridging will remain in control of our weather pattern as a reinforcing trough and cold front progress east- southeastward from the Great Lakes on Saturday across New England on Sunday. Surface ridging will remain centered near Bermuda, with its axis extending across our area. Breezy onshore winds will develop at coastal locations on Saturday and Sunday afternoons following the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze, keeping highs at area beaches in the mid to upper 80s. Interludes of cirrus spilling over the deep- layered ridge axis into our area are expected, with plenty of sunshine and an unseasonably dry, subsident air mass resulting in highs climbing to the lower 90s at inland locations on Saturday, warming to the mid 90s on Sunday. Dewpoints crashing to the 55-60 range at inland locations each afternoon will yield heat index values below 100 degrees. Fair skies and decoupling winds on Saturday night will allow lows to fall to the mid to upper 60s at most inland locations, with a light onshore breeze keeping coastal lows in the lower 70s. Patchy radiation fog will be possible early on Saturday and Sunday mornings at inland locations, with any fog that manages to develop expected to dissipate shortly after sunrise.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Unseasonably Dry Weather Continues on Monday.

- Breezy Onshore Winds Redevelop on Tuesday and Wednesday, Increasing the Threat for Rip Currents at Area Beaches.

- Gradually Increasing Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday.

Deep-layered ridging in place over our area on Sunday will retrograde westward by Monday, allowing a "backdoor" cold front to shift southward across our region on Tuesday afternoon and evening. A dry and subsident air mass will persist on Monday, allowing afternoon dewpoints to crash to the 60-65 range during the afternoon hours. Highs will again soar to the mid 90s on Monday afternoon at most inland locations, with breezy onshore winds developing at coastal locations behind the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary early on Monday afternoon that will keep highs in the upper 80s. PWAT values will begin to climb on Monday night and especially Tuesday ahead of the approaching "backdoor" cold front. Gradual moistening should keep lows in the 70-75 range on Monday night, and isolated to perhaps widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening as the boundary passes through our area from north to south. Meanwhile, high pressure building along the Mid-Atlantic coast in the wake of this cold front will wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Tuesday afternoon, tightening our local pressure gradient and creating breezy east-northeasterly winds along the I-95 corridor. These breezy onshore winds will cool afternoon highs to the mid and upper 80s at coastal locations, with lower 90s forecast for locations west of the I-95 corridor. An onshore breeze could advect a few coastal showers onshore on Tuesday night, where lows will only fall to the mid and upper 70s. Decoupling winds inland should yield lows closer to 70.

Deep-layered ridging will continue to slowly retrograde westward to a position over Texas by the middle portion of next week. This evolution of the weather pattern should allow deeper moisture over the southeast Gulf to gradually increase northward across the FL peninsula on Wednesday, with PWATs likely climbing above 2 inches by Thursday across our area. Otherwise, high pressure situated along the Mid-Atlantic coast early on Wednesday will slowly weaken as it shifts southeastward to a position off the southeastern seaboard by late next week. Breezy easterly winds will develop along the I-95 corridor on Wednesday afternoon following the passage of the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary, again keeping coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s at coastal locations, with lower 90s inland. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast on Wednesday, with the potential for a few coastal showers moving onshore on Wednesday night and Thursday morning along the I-95 corridor and points eastward as low level flow veers slightly to southeasterly. Coverage should increase to scattered on Thursday afternoon and evening, with highs ranging from the upper 80s at coastal locations to the lower 90s inland. Lows on Wednesday and Thursday nights will remain in the mid 70s at coastal locations and closer to 70 well inland.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for this period. Very low chance for reduced vsbys inland with patchy BR/FG towards sunrise this morning, though chances remain too low to include in the forecast. Otherwise, the main operational impact will be breezy onshore flow continuing this afternoon and evening at all terminals, especially closest to the coast.

MARINE

A modest onshore flow will continue today and through the weekend, shifting increasingly towards the south each day as high pressure starts to set up more east of the region. Increased moisture with this flow will return chances for showers and thunderstorms early to mid next week.

Rip Currents: High Risk will continue across northeast FL beaches today where the most lingering effects of onshore flow continue. Risk will be a "high end" moderate for southeast GA beaches. Surf heights will drop towards the 3-4 foot range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Unseasonably Dry Weather Expected Through Monday

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Inland This Afternoon

An unseasonably dry air mass will remain in place across our area through early next week, limiting chances for rainfall. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 30 percent at inland locations each afternoon through Sunday, with values only slowly recovering on Monday. Otherwise, breezy easterly transport winds developing late this morning will combine with elevated mixing heights this afternoon to create high daytime dispersion values at inland locations, with good values expected at coastal locations, where breezy surface winds will develop this afternoon following the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary. Elevated mixing heights will continue this weekend through Monday, but gradually decreasing transport winds will yield generally good daytime dispersion values at inland locations, with fair values at coastal locations, where breezy onshore winds will develop each afternoon following the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours through the weekend at inland locations. Widespread dense fog is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 88 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 84 72 86 71 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 87 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 86 70 87 72 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 89 64 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 89 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.