textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warning Late Tonight & Early Friday Morning. Areas Impacted: Southeast GA, Inland Portions of Northeast and North Central FL. Wind Chill Values in the Low to Mid 20s Early on Friday Morning

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions through Friday Morning inner and

- Light Freeze & Frost Late Sat Night for Inland Areas West of I-95

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues to Expand Across Our Area

UPDATE

Only small adjustment to trend down rain chances as the cold front exits the area. No major adjustment to the forecast. Post-frontal drizzle may persist through the late morning for NE FL coastal areas but will taper off this afternoon.

Blanketing stratus this morning will stick around for most of the area through the day but breaks in the cloud cover may let some sunshine into areas across inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor. Where the sun does peak through, the breezy post-frontal northwesterly winds will likely be gustier with gusts potentially up to 30 mph this afternoon. Elsewhere under the lingering stratus gusts around 20 mph will be predominant, especially near the coast.

For this afternoon, clouds and cold air advection will keep temperatures on the chilly side with highs in the low 50s for SE GA and mid/upper 50s for NE GA. This will set the stage for a widespread light freeze tonight with the exception of the beach zones.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Early this morning: Cold frontal boundary has just pushed into inland SE GA with light to moderate rainfall still ongoing ahead of the boundary across all of SE GA/NE FL. This feature will steadily progress SE through the local area, pushing off the NE FL coast into the Atlantic after sunrise this morning. Rainfall will slowly end from NW to SE with this feature as well and additional rainfall amounts will generally be in the 0.10-0.25" range with some isolated amounts close to 0.50" over inland NE FL. Temps will fall into the upper 30s across inland SE GA behind the frontal boundary, while 40s are expected behind the front across the rest of area after sunrise.

Today: Brisk NW winds around 15 mph gusting to around 25 mph will usher in another colder and drier airmass, although skies will be slow to clear behind the frontal boundary, especially across SE GA, where Max temps will only top out around 50F, while partly sunny to mostly sunny skies should return to most of NE FL by the mid to late afternoon hours with some bounce back in temps into the 50s, but overall a return to below normal temps once again and will feel much cooler with the gusty NW winds at times.

Tonight: High pressure center builds into the NE Gulf which will keep a cold NW flow across the local area through the night, and NW winds at 10-15G20 mph in the evening hours, will only diminish to 5- 10 mph during the overnight hours, this will lead to more of an advective light to moderate freeze event for late tonight into the morning hours on Friday. Will keep the current Freeze Watch in place with low temps in the upper 20s/near 30F over inland areas, with lower 30s expected along the I-95 corridor, and middle 30s along the Atlantic beachfront locations. The elevated winds will make for quite cold wind chills in the 20s, but a bit too marginal for any confidence in Cold Weather Advisory headlines for NE FL as only pockets of Wind chills below 25F are expected. Have kept in the mention of areas to widespread frost formation by sunrise Friday morning, but the elevated winds might cut down on this formation, but the recent rainfall and higher dew point temps in the 20s do support at least some Frost potential and locations that do not end up in the Freeze Warning closer to the Atlantic coast may need Frost Advisory headlines to be issued with the next forecast package.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

A dry cold front will press down from out of the north by the end of the week and into the weekend, bringing breezy southwesterly- westerly winds across the forecast area ahead of the fropa. Dry weather conditions and clear skies will be consistent through the period. High temperatures will warm from out of the lower 60s on Friday up into the mid to upper 60s on Saturday. Overnight low temps will drop from out of the lower 40s at the end of the week down into the lower 30s over inland southeast Georgia and into the mid to upper 30s over northeast Florida on Saturday as cooler temperatures associated with the dry cold front settle in over the region. Potential for freezing and frost overnight Saturday and into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Dry weather conditions will persist through the coming week as high pressure over the region lifts off to the northeast and northwesterly prevailing flow shifts to be more out of the west by midweek as a high pressure center moves eastward through the gulf and passes over the southernmost portion of the Florida peninsula. Temperatures will warm by the beginning of next week with max and min temps rising to be near and above the seasonal average before the end of the period.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS in light rain/drizzle will linger through 13-15z as the winds shift to the NW and increase to 12-14G18-23 knots through the rest morning hours as well as CIGS lifting to MVFR levels in the 15-18Z time frame. These conds will linger through the 18-21Z time frame at least in the stubborn cold air advection and gusty NW flow. Some improvement to VFR levels as the lower cloud decks begin to become SCT will take place after sunset with most sites becoming VFR in the 00-03Z time frame as NW winds weaken to 8 to 10 knots. SSI will hold onto the MVFR CIGS the longest versus the NE FL TAF sites. VFR conds will develop at all TAF sites by the 03 to 06Z time frame with NW winds further decreasing to 5-7 knots towards the end of the 12Z TAF forecast period.

MARINE

An approaching cold front will move across the waters this morning. Gusty northwesterly winds behind the front will lead to a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions Today and Tonight. After a brief lull in the winds Friday morning, another cold front will clip the waters resulting in another uptick in winds to Small Craft Advisory levels through Saturday morning. High pressure building to the north behind the front will shift winds to onshore, out of the northeast, and lower speeds by this weekend.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Risk in the strong offshore flow with surf/breakers only in the 1-2 ft range Today and Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Daytime Dispersion Values Today - High Daytime Dispersion Values On Thursday - Elevated Fire Danger Possible Area-Wide On Friday

Breezy northwesterly winds will build today with lingering showers becoming dispersed and moving offshore with the frontal passage. Winds will shift to become more out of the west on Friday with dry and windy conditions potentially resulting in elevated fire danger conditions throughout the forecast area for Friday and Saturday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A light freeze and widespread frost is expected at most inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Friday. A light freeze and frost is possible for inland locations along and north of Interstate 10 late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 50 29 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 52 34 59 43 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 56 32 63 41 / 20 0 0 0 SGJ 58 34 62 45 / 40 0 0 0 GNV 58 31 64 41 / 20 0 0 0 OCF 59 31 62 41 / 40 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-137-140-220-232-236-237-240-322-340- 422-425-522. GA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ470-472-474.