textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents Through At Least Wednesday. High Surf Reaching Local Beaches Starting Tuesday: 7-12 ft Breakers

- Fire Weather Watch Inland Southeast GA Tuesday

- Small Craft Advisory In Effect Today through Tuesday Night. Gale Watch Late Tuesday night through Wednesday Late Wednesday night

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Windy Coastal Conditions Today and Tonight

- High Risk of Rip Currents

- Beneficial rain for most of the area. Isolated thunderstorms possible for North Central FL

A cold front continues to crawl southward early this morning and crossed the FL/GA line around midnight. The slow speed of the front may allow patchy fog, that may become locally dense along the I-75 corridor through rest of the predawn hours, generally expect fog formation south of Gainesville. Fog should lift as northerly winds with the front reach the southern zones around 9 AM.

A moderate surge of northeasterly post-frontal winds will push down the coast this morning leading to breezy coastal conditions and rougher surf zone conditions. Winds may gust up to 30 mph at the immediate coast throughout the day and into the evening and overnight, though there could be a lull between 8 PM and Midnight tonight.

There will be increasing rain chances today, especially toward the afternoon and evening as a mid level shortwave lifts northeastward out of the eastern gulf and then crosses FL tonight. With the incoming forcing, a persistent stratiform rain will offer a small amount (generally less than 0.50") of beneficial rainfall through the afternoon and overnight. There's a small chance for isolated storms across the far southern counties (Marion, Putnam, and Flagler) this afternoon where some diurnal instability may take shape for a few hours late this morning and afternoon but for majority of the convection will be to our south today.

Most of the area will be on the cooler side of the stalling front and beneath mostly cloudy to overcast skies, which will keep highs in the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon. Though it'll depend on the position of the front, some locations from Gainesville south will still reach the upper 70s to near 80 despite the cloud cover.

As the shortwave passes over the FL peninsula tonight it'll keep a blanket of thick overcast across the area and stratiform rain focused across NE FL. Cloud cover rain should keep low temps in the mid to upper 50s across NE FL and the low 50s in SE GA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler with windy onshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday

- Fire Weather Concerns for inland southeast GA Tuesday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

Cooler temperatures and strong onshore winds continue Tuesday and Wednesday areawide, with Wind Advisory gusts likely along the Atlantic coast and St. Johns river basin. Northeasterly winds will be near 20 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph on Tuesday, increasing further to sustained 25 mph gusting at least 40-45 mph on Wednesday near the coast. High temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to mid 70s both days, with scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms primarily over coastal northeast FL and north central FL. Through Wednesday night, highest forecast rainfall totals will be along the northeast Florida coast. With drier air in place and breezy conditions, there are fire weather concerns generally northwest of Waycross on Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow continues Thursday, with elevated winds along the coast and inland to the St. Johns River Basin

High pressure to the northeast continues to bring strong northeasterly winds Thursday, with the local pressure gradient beginning to weaken Friday through the weekend. Several days of gusty northeasterly winds will create beach and marine hazards, including high surf up to 8-12 feet, moderate beach erosion and potential minor coastal flooding at times of high tide. Temperatures will gradually warm up Thursday through the weekend, reaching the low 80s for some inland areas Friday and Saturday. Higher rain chances remain in place Thursday, with again coastal northeast Florida likely to receive the most precipitation through Friday. The weekend looks mostly dry and warm.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Strengthening winds behind a cold front will initially be northerly from 340-010 and trend to 020-040 by around 15z, featuring gusts 20- 25 knots through the afternoon. Additionally, a stratus deck around 1.5-2 kft will move in off the Atlantic and spread across the coastal terminals today. There will be increasing chances for light, steady rain around 15z/16z that will last through the afternoon hours and could lead to MVFR visibility at times. Stratiform rain will transition to a showery nature this evening as winds lull. Expect winds and gusts to return overnight between 06z-12z Tuesday.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect this morning for a surge of northeasterly winds pushing north to south along the coast. Strong onshore winds will continue through the week and will intensify to Gale Force Tuesday night through Wednesday as strong high pressure wedges in from the north. Strong onshore winds with a long fetch will build seas to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves away before much improved conditions developing this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life- threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough surf.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Tuesday - Critically Low Min Rh And Breezy Inland Se Georgia Tuesday

Much stronger high pressure builds in from the north for Monday and remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy to windy onshore flow and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers the closer to the coast. Critically low minRH values and breezy winds are forecast Tuesday for portions of inland southeast Georgia, with potential for red flag conditions prompting a Fire Weather Watch. Moisture levels will return above critical levels the remainder of the week, but breezy easterly flow will continue through Friday. High nighttime dispersions are expected each night this week as well.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog potential Monday morning for north central Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 70 52 75 53 / 30 10 10 10 SSI 68 60 70 61 / 60 40 20 20 JAX 72 57 71 59 / 70 60 40 20 SGJ 74 60 71 63 / 50 80 70 40 GNV 78 55 70 58 / 50 70 40 20 OCF 82 58 70 60 / 50 80 60 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for GAZ154- 166. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.