textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local Nor'Easter Conditions Developing Tuesday, continue through Thursday. Windy coastal conditions, rough & dangerous surf, strong rip currents and small craft advisory conditions are expected.

- Isolated Strong Thunderstorms possible across North-Central FL through the early evening hours.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Strong Thunderstorms Possible for North Central Florida

Weaker and transitioning flow pattern is developing across the area today as a drying northerly flow continues to push much drier across the region with precipitable water values spanning 1.3" near the Altamaha to over 2" across north-central FL. Given the steering flow is relatively weak, daytime heating will encourage a deeper inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze today. While isolated storms are possible along the sea breeze in coastal SE GA, the primary focus and high coverage of showers and thunderstorms will likely be inland (west of I-95) this afternoon. Given the slower and largely sea- breeze and outflow driven storm motion, there will be the potential of locally heavy rain and potential areas of minor flooding. As outflow and sea breezes collide between the I-75 corridor and US 301 late this afternoon, a few strong storms may develop and be capable of producing gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph.

Convection will fade and shift southwest with some light trailing stratiform in its wake this evening, which will also fade before midnight. Mostly a quiet night will follow the convective cessation but a backdoor cold front that will bring windy conditions Tuesday will begin to surge down the GA coast around daybreak tomorrow.

Temperatures will peak over the next few hours, generally in the low 90s across NE FL and low/mid 90s in SE GA where the airmass is drier. This will maintain maximum heat index today in the 100-108 range, which is hot but will stay below Heat Advisory limits through the rest of the day. Tonight will be similar regarding low temperatures with inland temperatures in the low/mid 70s and upper 70s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- A high rip current risk and rough surf likely for area beaches starting Tuesday and last through at least Thursday.

- Breezy northeast winds begins Tuesday, continues through Thursday. A Wind Advisory is possible for the immediate coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stronger northeasterly flow develops as high pressure builds to our northeast. Most of the Atlantic coast and along the St. Johns river will see frequent gusts near 30 mph, occasional gusts closer to 40mph both Tuesday and Wednesday. Onshore winds will bring morning showers onshore near the coast, spreading inland throughout the day, with storms expected to pick up in the afternoon on Tuesday. Higher precipitation chances will generally be over northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast as drier air filters into inland Georgia. Much drier air will move into the area Wednesday (PWATs 1- 1.5"), keeping precipitation chances very low, only around 15-20% near the east coast. Temperatures both days will be 'cooler' near the coast in the mid to upper 80s, lower 90s further inland.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms - Elevated rip current risk and rough surf for area beaches will continue this period

Quite the spread in precipitation chances is expected on Thursday as dry air lays across inland southeast Georgia, and enhanced moisture moves onshore across the east coast and inland northeast Florida. The breezy onshore winds do ease slightly on Thursday, but we will still see higher gusts near the beaches. Morning showers and isolated storms again will move onto the coast and spread inland through the day, with showers continuing overnight near the coast. High rain and storm chances continue Friday through the weekend as a front sinks southward towards the area and onshore flow continues. Overall, high temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Scattered showers are breaking out this afternoon, mainly across NE FL south of I-10, with scattered to broken VFR cumulus elsewhere. There's a lower chance of showers at Jax Metro terminals but elected to increase confidence to low-end TEMPO group for TSRA given the building instability and sea breeze. The highest potential for +TSRA and associated gusty winds and LIFR/IFR visibility restrictions will be along the I-75 corridor (KGNV/KOCF/KLCQ) between 20-24z today. Activity will generally move south-southwestward through the early evening and diminish after 00z. Surface winds will trend WNW at or below 10 knots until the easterly sea breeze pushes inland this afternoon. A backdoor front will reach the area Tuesday morning brining the potential for MVFR and possibly IFR stratocumulus, gusty northeasterly winds (especially at the coast) and waves of scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms through Tuesday.

MARINE

Offshore winds will continue across area waters today with the exception of sea breeze winds developing from the east during the afternoon hours. Less thunderstorm activity is expected for today and will likely be limited to northeast Florida nearshore waters. From Tuesday through Thursday, a strong northeast wind surge will accompany a frontal passage and bring small craft advisory conditions, rough seas, and waves of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over the area waters. Improving conditions are expected by Friday as onshore winds weaken and seas gradually lower.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds (excepting for the afternoon sea breeze) and weak easterly swells will keep a low-end moderate risk of rip currents in effect for today. By Tuesday, strengthening northeast winds and building surf combine to lead to dangerous surf and a high rip current risk area beaches during the morning hours and is expected to continue through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Strong high pressure will build to the northeast as a backdoor cool front moves through on Tuesday. Much higher winds begin by midday Tuesday for the coastal areas with speeds up to 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30-35 mph. These elevated winds remain in place for Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, especially at the coast. The high pressure north of the area will weaken Friday, with another high building to the northeast over the weekend. Strong surface and transport winds will lead to areas of high daytime dispersion for the Tuesday to Thursday time frame.

Fog Potential... Some patchy fog is possible late tonight/early Tuesday morning inland areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 94 73 91 69 / 10 0 20 0 SSI 92 79 87 77 / 10 0 40 10 JAX 92 75 88 75 / 30 0 60 30 SGJ 90 77 87 77 / 20 10 60 50 GNV 93 74 90 74 / 50 10 50 20 OCF 93 75 91 75 / 70 30 60 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-472. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ454-474.