textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents today at Northeast Florida Beaches. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Southeast Georgia Beaches

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Across the Area

- Thunderstorm Chances for NE FL Tuesday and Wednesday

- Increased Marine Hazards Tuesday to Wednesday, including Small Craft Advisory & High Risk Rip Currents

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy fog inland tonight.

High pressure ridge will sink south into southern FL through the night. The best ridging over the area late Tonight will be over inland areas, which is where will focus best fog potential. Lows Tonight will run a little above seasonal levels.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Elevated Wildfire Danger Sunday - Near Record High Temperatures Sunday and Monday - Gusty coastal conditions & High Risk of Rip Currents Tuesday - Low-End chance for Isolated Thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening

Sun:

Influence from an approaching cold front will begin Sunday as westerly low level flow strengthens as prefrontal gradients tighten. This will lead to breezy conditions locally with gusts up to 20 mph. Better mixing under full sun and rising thickness values will push temperatures well into the mid/upper 80s Sunday afternoon. Combining breeziness, warm temperatures, and dry airmass together will elevate wildfire danger on Sunday.

Sun night:

Westerly flow will begin advect gulf low level moisture inland across NE FL through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. This will set the stage for some light fog formation mainly along the I- 75 corridor. However, there's a question for the potential for dense radiation fog due to persistent light westerly flow but a dense advective fog may develop. Lows will be in the mid and upper 50s.

Mon:

The front will still be to the north and slowing as it approaches Monday, keeping offshore flow in place through the day allowing temperatures to push up into the 80s once again.

Mon Night & Tue:

The "backdoor" front is still expected to push down the coast Monday night and through the morning Tuesday. A surge of northeasterly winds will wedge down the coast through the day with fairly gusty conditions expected at the beaches with gusts up to 35 mph possible with gusts up to 25 mph inland through the day Tuesday. This front will spread stratocumulus cloud deck from the northeast to southwest through the day as well, resulting in a fairly large gradient in high temperatures from the upper 50s in portions of SE GA to the mid 80s toward north-central FL.

Cooler air aloft and quick-moving upper level shortwave should encourage elevated showers, embedded withing the stratocumulus deck, through the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. Forecast soundings don't appear to be overly aggressive with elevated instability, so have kept thunderstorm mentions at a "slight chance" or "isolated" for now but the confidence in coverage will depend on the path of the shortwave as it approaches.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Nightly Fog Potential Wednesday through Friday

Frontal moisture will linger as the feature itself stalls across north-central FL Wednesday. Shower activity will linger Tuesday night as the shortwave passes with rain chances diminishing by Wednesday in the wake of that feature. A brief coastal trough will develop Wednesday night, encouraging shower activity over the Atlantic waters, through Thursday before the ridge axis slides southward into the area while the frontal zone continues to dissipate. Due to the prolonged onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday, enough boundary layer moisture in place may lead to consecutive nights of fog development from the midweek period into next weekend. Next weekends forecast is uncertain given the envelope of solutions among the ensemble guidance. Temperatures will trend warmer quickly behind the front the middle and latter part of the upcoming week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions to prevail through this evening. Patchy fog is expected to develop inland Tonight, which could affect VQQ and GNV with restrictions. The greatest chance for restrictions will be at KGNV. This fog will lift Sunday morning, with VFR conditions for the remainder of the day.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will prevail through Sunday night. A cold front will move south southeast across the area Monday through Monday night. The boundary is expected to stall over central FL Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will build for Thursday and Friday.

Rip Currents: For today, easterly swells of 3-4 ft with periods of 10 seconds combined with prior rips and support from the NWPS guidance all suggest high risk again for northeast FL beaches and more toward the moderate risk for southeast GA beaches. Will revisit later today or tonight whether this may continue again for Sunday but still anticipate easterly swells of about 3 ft on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Elevated Fire Danger Sunday - High Daytime Dispersions Continue Through Tuesday

Near critical humidity, strengthening winds ahead of an approaching "backdoor" cold front, dry fuels, and high dispersions will lead to elevated fire danger Sunday. Westerly winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph through the afternoon as humidity bottoms out around 25-30 percent, especially across NE FL. While winds aren't expected to reach Red Flag thresholds, breezy winds are expected to influence any ongoing or new wildfires in the area. At this time, Red Flag Warnings are not being issued; however, a short- notice Red Flag may be need to be considered Tonight or Sunday morning. The frontal system will push across the region Monday night into Tuesday bringing a small chance of lack-luster rain and potentially a few thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, primarily for northeast Florida districts.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy light fog is possible early Sunday morning along the I-75 corridor but with stirring winds, widespread dense fog development is unlikely. Gulf moisture may lead to a thicker fog in the same general area Monday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Today, Sunday, and Monday:

Record High Temperatures:

March 21: KCRG: 87/2020

March 22: KJAX: 90/1935 KAMG: 88/2011 KCRG: 87/2011

March 23: KJAX: 91/1935 KAMG: 86/2012 KCRG: 87/2012

March 27: KJAX: 90/2023 KGNV: 91/1949 KAMG: 88/2021

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 56 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 58 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 55 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 56 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 51 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 51 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333-433. GA...None. MARINE...None.