textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents Through the Weekend

- Critically Low Humidity Inland this Afternoon

- Isolated Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms Beginning on Sunday and Continuing Next Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High risk of rip currents at area beaches - Dry conditions will elevate fire weather concerns

Rest of Today: Surface high pressure over the southeast states will shift eastward and off the coast tonight. Breezy northeast winds will continue for the coastal areas rest of the afternoon with a few cumulus clouds. Otherwise, mostly sunny with just scattered high clouds at times. Moisture will gradually increase, currently have PWATs of about 0.5 to 0.8 inches, and will increase a few tenths of an inch through tonight. The RH values are fairly low inland this afternoon where there remains a fire weather concern given the drought conditions despite the recent rainfall. Recent RH observed values were 28 to 30 percent at a few inland sites.

Winds tonight will slowly abate, but still a bit more elevated along the coastal areas where the airmass is not likely to decouple as much as the inland zones. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s are expected. As moisture deepens slowly and flow becomes more easterly, a couple of the models show some chance for a couple of showers over the marine waters. Still looks like most if not all of any isolated showers will stay over the northeast FL waters. Some light patchy fog is possible, but chances seem too low at this point to include in the forecast. Anticipate also chance of low clouds for inland southeast GA Saturday morning based model consensus.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

- Isolated thunderstorm potential along I-75 corridor Saturday - Scattered thunderstorms inland Sunday

This weekend, the region remains on the western periphery of a Bermuda high maintaining southeasterly flow. Moisture will gradually increase back into the region from south to north allowing for isolated convection to develop along the sea breezes Saturday and becoming more scattered on Sunday. Given the southeast flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will be dominant resulting in the sea breeze merger occurring along and west of the I-75 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Due to the onshore flow, cooler high temperature readings are expected at the coast each day in the mid 80s, whereas inland counties are likely reach the low 90s. Overnight the opposite will be true, more mild temps will be favored at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered afternoon storms along the sea breezes next week

Ridging from high pressure in the Atlantic will gradually weaken over the region through mid-week as a cold front approaches the area by the end of the work week. SSE flow continues to increase moisture with PWATs rising into the 1.5-1.8 in. range. Isolated to scattered convection is anticipated to develop along the inland-moving sea breezes each afternoon and evening through the week. The sea breeze mergers will generally occur along the I-75 and HWY 301 corridors.

Otherwise, beneath an amplified upper ridge temperatures will be slightly above normal through next week, except at the beaches where the onshore flow will likely keep afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions with just few-sct cumulus around 2500-4000 ft today and into tonight. There is a chance of MVFR cig for the coastal TAFs, and not expected to persist very long but TEMPO group added for CRG/JAX/VQQ at this time this aftn. Surface winds will be northeast 10-15 kt coastal TAFs and 5-10 kt inland. Winds decrease after sunset tonight. Winds become more east and southeast on Saturday to about 8-12 kt by 14z.

MARINE

Strengthened northeast to east winds and building seas today as high pressure builds north of the waters. High pressure will then shift eastward off the southeastern seaboard by this evening, and continue to move well east of the region this weekend. This will result in east to southeast winds persisting into the weekend and early next week. Afternoon and evening wind surges this weekend may bring periods of caution conditions to the near shore waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible in this onshore wind flow by late in the weekend and next week.

Rip Currents:

Strengthened northeast to east winds today resulting in higher threat of rip currents. Surf initially started around 1-2 ft this morning, but is likely at least 2-3 ft by 1-2 pm. Latest surf cams and coastal winds also suggest wind chop surf and some building surf conditions. The surf will remain elevated at times through the weekend, with a high risk of rip currents posted.

FIRE WEATHER

- Critically Low Humidity Inland Rest of This Afternoon - Patchy High Dispersion Over The Weekend

Strong ridging and high pressure shifts to the northeast this the weekend, resulting in an earlier Atlantic sea breeze inland push. Dry conditions will persist on Saturday, but there is potential for isolated thunderstorms along the I-75 corridor and districts to the west during the early evening hours on Sunday. Dispersion will be near "high" levels over the weekend, especially inland, as mixing heights push above 6,000 ft. The following week will bring chances of showers and isolated storms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog will be possible Saturday and Sunday mornings. Poor to moderate humidity recovery this morning will be followed by excellent recovery over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 58 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 40 SSI 69 83 73 83 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 64 88 70 88 / 10 10 0 20 SGJ 70 87 73 86 / 10 10 0 20 GNV 65 93 70 91 / 0 20 20 60 OCF 67 91 71 90 / 0 30 20 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.