textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding for Atlantic beachfront locations and St Johns River Basin through tonight

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Minor flooding will continue along the St. Johns River Basin during times of high tide through this evening

Dry air mass will remain in place with a westerly steering flow in place in the low levels, while higher clouds will push in aloft. Despite the filtered sunshine, expect Max temps to return closer to normal levels in the middle 80s. Light and variable winds inland, with an East Coast sea breeze development during the afternoon hours pushing inland to the I-95/US-17 corridors, but not enough moisture aloft for any shower activity. Cooler than normal overnight lows will continue tonight in the dry air mass with lows in the mid/upper 50s inland SE GA, lower 60s inland NE FL and mid/upper 60s along the Atlantic Coast. A slight increase in moisture filters in from the west allowing for some shallow, patchy dense fog to develop around sunrise across inland SE GA.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Wednesday night):

- Moderating temperatures, and slowly increasing moisture this period

Dry weather conditions will continue through Monday with a potential for scattered showers and storms to develop Tuesday afternoon over north central Florida as prevailing flow shifts about to become more out of the south with drier air over the region receding to the north and high pressure from out of the east extends to influence the flow pattern over the southeastern US. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s for the beginning of the week with overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s for inland areas by the end of the forecast period, with min temps in the upper 60s and lower 70s along the coastline.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period (Wednesday through Saturday):

- Increasing chances for convection each day this period

Chances for showers and potential storms will increase through Friday as high pressure off to the northeast brings a moist southeasterly onshore flow over northeast Florida and into southeast Georgia. Convection will become more widespread by Saturday ahead of a frontal boundary pressing in from out of the northwest. Above average temperatures will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend with daily high temps rising up into the lower 90s for inland areas and in the mid 80s for counties along the coastline.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions with light and variable winds overnight. Patchy fog will be possible between 08-11Z at VQQ.

MARINE

High pressure will shift over the region through Monday with prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds, turning easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by midweek.

Rip Currents: Long period swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4 to 6 feet will continue high risk of rip currents today. Long period swells will slowly subside early this week with a likely return to Moderate Risk of Rip currents on Monday and Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

A frontal zone extending from a low off the coast of the northeastern US will be over area through Tuesday morning. High pressure will then build to the northeast Tuesday afternoon. The high will gradually become centered more toward the east northeast Wednesday through Friday. Moisture will increase this period, bringing more seasonal levels of precipitation chances toward late week.

Fog Potential...Significant fog is not expected this morning.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Astronomical higher than normal tides will continue into tonight with Minor Flooding occurring during times of high tide within the St. Johns River Basin and along the NE FL Atlantic coast/ICWW. Water levels peak during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) Today/Tonight and may need to be extended into Monday with the next forecast package.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 57 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 86 69 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 63 89 67 89 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 64 87 68 87 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 62 89 67 89 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 63 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ125-132- 137-138-225-233-325-333-633. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...None.