textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Near Record Warmth Today and jus shy of record over northeast FL. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values Inland Each Day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread

- Fire Weather Watch Monday Afternoon. Set for Portions of Inland Northeast Florida along/south of I-10

- Gusty Coastal & Hazardous Boating Conditions Next Week. Small Craft Advisory likely beginning late Sunday Night

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

- Record Warm Temperatures Rest of today

- Elevated Fire Danger & Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values

A mid-upper level ridge exits to the east as a long wave trough advances to the eastern CONUS. This will send a cold front to the region Sunday morning. Ahead of this system, sfc flow will continue to be southwest about 6-12 mph most areas under persistent subsidence and dry air. Latest GOES imagery shows PWATs from about 0.7 to 1 inch. Record highs will mostly be in the lower 90s, with isolated instances of mid 90s possible. The coastal areas are experiencing the Atlantic sea breeze so are limited to highs in the mid 80s. Main concern continues to be an Elevated Fire Danger given the drought and critically low RH values rest of today.

For tonight, the west and east coast sea breezes move inland and gradually dissipate, with mean winds eventually turning back to a dominate southwest or slightly west direction and become light. Skies will tend to be mostly clear to partly cloudy with mostly high clouds but some occasional stratocu developing. Patchy light fog/low stratus possible toward I-75 early in the morning given moist flow off the Gulf. Lows mainly in the lower 60s most locations.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Falling temperatures Sunday, leading to period of below normal readings

A cold front will move southeast across the region during the first half of Sunday. While a few showers can not be completely ruled out with the frontal passage the chances are low.

Strong high pressure will build to the northwest following the front Sunday afternoon into Monday. The gradient between the high and the departed front will result in an elevated and gusty onshore flow. The gradient will begin to weaken Monday afternoon and night, allowing the winds to trend down. The high center will build closer to the region Tuesday. Dry weather is forecast for Monday through Tuesday night.

While much of the area will have temperatures above normal Sunday, readings will fall in the afternoon. Readings will then be below normal the rest of this period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming trend this period - Thunderstorm potential Saturday

High pressure will be centered to the east through Friday, with ridging extending across the area. The weather will remain dry through Friday as a result of the ridging.

The ridge will move to the south Saturday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A few showers and thunderstorms are expected inland Saturday ahead of this front.

Temperatures will moderate this period, with readings returning to above normal beginning Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions will persist through TAF period. Southwest winds develop once again after 04z ahead of a cool front approaching the region on Sunday. Westerly flow near 5-10 mph begins Sunday morning, with shift to breezy northwest winds, with occasional gusts, after 16z as the front pushes through the area, while SGJ will not see effects of the front until after TAF period.

MARINE

Surface high pressure ridge over central Florida will push further south today as a dry cool front moves into the southeast states. Winds will increase from the south and southeast rest of today through this evening over the area waters, and then shift to the southwest and west by Sunday morning. The front will bring a wind shift to the northwest Sunday afternoon into Sunday Night, then a surge of northeast winds follows the frontal passage through Monday night and Small Craft Advisory with the potential for Gale force gusts are expected. High pressure will develop over the area Tuesday through Wednesday.

Rip Currents and Surf:

Moderate Risk of Rips today though the surf heights are on the low side of about 2 feet per reports and NWPS. Peak wave periods remain to be about 9 seconds from about 075 to 090 degree. A small window of wind wave action this afternoon and evening as the Atlantic sea breeze strengthens. A low to moderate risk of rip currents Sunday due to offshore west to northwest flow ahead of a cold front. High risk of rips and potential high surf advisory conditions expected early next week in strong NE wind surge behind cold frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER

- MinRH levels below 30 percent interior SE GA Sunday MinRH levels below 30 percent inland Monday and Tuesday, and - below 20 percent inland SE GA - MinRH levels below 30 percent inland Wednesday through Friday Areas of high afternoon dispersions Sunday through Tuesday, and - Thursday and Saturday

A cold front will move southeast across the area Sunday. This front is expected to pass through mainly dry, but a few spotty showers are possible. High pressure will build behind this front for Sunday night and Monday. Onshore winds behind the front will be elevated and gusty, especially near the coast. Much drier air will also advect south into region behind the front. The combination of the dry conditions, and elevated winds will lead to Red Flag Conditions over portions of inland areas Monday. High pressure will then prevail across the area through Friday. A cold front is expected to move into area next weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog inland Tonight. Red Flag conditions forecast over portions of inland areas Monday. Thunderstorm chances next Saturday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 90/2026, GNV 92/2026, AMG 92/1967

April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 62 79 47 80 / 0 20 0 0 SSI 67 83 59 73 / 0 20 10 0 JAX 64 87 56 77 / 0 10 0 0 SGJ 65 88 63 75 / 0 10 10 0 GNV 61 89 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 62 88 59 81 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-232- 236-322-422-425-522. GA...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for GAZ162. MARINE...None.