textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy Frost Possible Inland Southeast GA Sunday

- Marine & Surf Zone Hazards Return Monday. Small Craft Advisory Late Monday through Friday. High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough Surf

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Not as Cold Tonight

Upper level trough over the region will lift out to the east and northeast through tonight while weak upper ridge builds in as a southern stream shortwave trough pushes into the lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains to the northwest and north of the region through tonight, keeping a north to northeast low level flow over the area, with some veering of the low to mid levels winds into Monday morning. Mostly sunny skies at this time but as the shortwave trough approaches, a stream of mid to upper level moisture will push toward the area as skies trend to partly cloudy as last tonight. Highs expected still in the 60s today and not as cool tonight as winds still remain light north-northeast and some clouds increase toward early morning. We still think upper 30s are possible for inland southeast GA where some patchy frost will be possible, but other locations will see lows in the 40s, except for lower 50s for the northeast FL coastal due to the breezier northeast flow developing.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal Hazards Increase Monday Night & Tuesday

Initially dry conditions on Monday will give way to increased chances for showers overnight Monday and into Tuesday, with chances for thunderstorms rising by Tuesday night for onshore areas and north central Florida as drier air pulls more northward and high pressure to the north moves further east, resulting in prevailing flow shifting to a more easterly onshore pattern over the forecast area. Breezy winds are expected for Tuesday as an area of low pressure begins to develop to the south over the Bahamas, resulting in an increased risk for coastal hazards. A warming trend will kick off for the beginning of next week with daily high temperatures rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures will show some consistency between Monday and Tuesday with min temps in the lower to mid 40s for southeast Georgia and ranging between the upper 40s and upper 50s for inland northeast Florida, with lows in the lower 60s near the coast and along the St Johns River.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Increasing Coastal and Marine Hazards

Gusty onshore winds along with chances for showers for north central Florida and for areas along the coast will continue through the end of the week as the forming low pressure system to the south begins to creep northward over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula and acting to tighten the pressure gradient south of high pressure situated to the north, resulting in potentially dangerous coastal conditions through the period. The warming trend will continue through the end of the week with temperatures rising to be above the seasonal average from midweek on, with daily max temps reaching up into the mid to upper 70s by Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions to prevail. Overall, increasing mid to high clouds expected later tonight through Monday with skies turning mostly cloudy at times by Monday morning into the afternoon. Tonight into Monday, will see gradual increase in low level moisture with some lower clouds down to 3000-4000 ft Monday morning into the afternoon hours. Some chance of MVFR cigs for SSI after 16z Monday. Winds will be north-northeast 6-12 kt this afternoon, becoming light for inland TAFs tonight. Winds become northeast again Monday to around 10=15 kt after 14z.

MARINE

High pressure will build toward the northwest rest of today before moving directly north of the region on Monday. Meanwhile, a weakening disturbance aloft will track eastward from the Gulf toward Florida on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a developing low pressure system and trough of low pressure east of the local Atlantic waters mid to late week. This tightening of the pressure gradient will cause marine conditions to steadily deteriorate. Expect Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop Monday, worsening to hazardous and even dangerous boating conditions from Tuesday through the end of the week. Rain chances and potentially a couple of thunderstorms will also increase from Monday through mid week.

Rip Currents: Seas are a little higher than forecast so surf may be upwards of 2-3 ft with north-northeast winds so going with moderate risk rest of today. Rip currents will trend toward a high risk early next week, and continuing through the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Cool and dry conditions are expected to generally moderate over the next few days as onshore flow remains persistent. This will especially be the case Monday and into Tuesday as the flow strengthens a bit, with chances for showers as well over south and east areas. Dispersions will remain in the fair to good range overall daily through Tuesday, despite more cloud cover for most. Northeasterly flow then looks to continue into mid week, with little change in the pattern expected through at least late week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog developments are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 37 62 42 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 49 66 56 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 65 46 69 56 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 67 55 71 62 / 0 0 0 70 GNV 68 46 71 56 / 0 0 0 30 OCF 70 50 74 58 / 0 0 0 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from Monday morning through Thursday afternoon for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Monday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 2 PM EST Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.