textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today

- Areas of Dense Fog Possible Friday Morning

- Windy Coastal Conditions this weekend

- Very hazardous surf conditions developing Saturday with Strong Onshore Winds.

- Widening extent of Exceptional Drought; Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continue.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Areas of Dense Fog Tonight, generally East of I-75

Inland temperatures continue to warm this afternoon ahead of the sea breeze as the surface high pressure settles over the area. Though there is low-grade instability, the warming cap and dry air in the mid levels should prevent any thunderstorm or meaningful shower development. That said, spotty showers may develop along the sea breeze especially across Flagler and Putnam counties this afternoon as temperatures push into the low and mid 80s inland.

For tonight, clearing skies and light winds with the available low level moisture brought inland by the sea breeze will favor stratus and fog development overnight. There is potential for dense fog and possibly and may warrant Dense Fog Advisories for parts of the area and adjacent coastal waters, especially north of Mayport.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy to areas of morning fog, potential to be locally dense - Near Record High Temps Friday - Local Northeasterly Wind Event Saturday: Windy Conditions, Beach/Marine Hazards Return

Near record high temperatures are forecast Friday after a foggy morning, with sunny skies and calm southwesterly winds inland. An Atlantic sea breeze will develop in the afternoon, cooling coastal temperatures into the lower 80s, whereas inland highs will climb into the upper 80s near 90 degrees. By Saturday, a front will move through the area, by mid-morning to early afternoon strong northeasterly winds will fill in. Wind gusts will approach 40 mph (Wind Advisory criteria) near the east coast through the evening. No precipitation is expected on Saturday associated with this front for most of the area (excluding the northeast FL coast south of St. Augustine), prompting fire weather concerns.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Gusty conditions Continue on Sunday, Especially at the coast - Dangerous Beach/Marine Conditions Continue Early Next Week - Elevated Tides Likely for Atlantic Coast

Breezy onshore winds continue Sunday, but not quite as gusty as Saturday as the aforementioned front sits over southern Florida. Temperatures Sunday will be pretty near normal, in the lower to mid 70s inland and for the northeast FL coast, and upper 60s for the southeast GA coast. Monday onward, temperatures will gradually warm up as winds shift more southerly and high pressure dominates.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR cloud bases continue through the evening as a the sea breeze continues to move inland a few showers will develop along it, mainly south of KJAX. VFR conditions will prevail through the first half of the night with potential for shallow fog and low stratus development after 08z bringing localized IFR to LIFR obscuration. Depth of stratus will be thinner than this morning and should lift more quickly, around 12z-13z.

MARINE

A persistent coastal trough and the associated the shower activity will dissipate through the afternoon as high pressure continues to build across the area briefly before a windy cold front arrives around sunrise Saturday morning. The strong northeasterly surge of winds along the edge and behind the front are likely to spread frequent gale-force wind gusts across the waters as sustained winds strengthen to near gale by Saturday afternoon. A Gale Watch has been issued for all waters Georgia and northeast Florida waters Saturday and Saturday night. Seas will build to 10-15 feet offshore and 8-12 feet in the nearshore waters by Saturday night. Strong, but reduced winds, continue through Sunday as winds gradually fall to Small Craft Advisory levels before high pressure ridge axis drops south into the waters between Monday and Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Today for northeast FL beaches, surf to about 3-4 ft at times and prior high risk suggests a high risk again, and lower wave heights over southeast GA beaches a moderate risk. On Friday, with lower surf heights and offshore flow, a low to moderate risk is anticipated. Rip current risk increases again to high on Saturday continuing to Sunday due to strong onshore flow and rough, high surf with breakers 6-10 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Over Inland Se Ga Friday - Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions This Weekend - Critical Min Rh Over Interior Ga Saturday

Dispersions increase on Friday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, especially across inland GA. By Saturday, high dispersion will be present area-wide, along with critically low minRH across portions of inland southeast Georgia creating at least elevated fire danger conditions north of Waycross. Onshore winds will lower slightly on Sunday, and moisture will rebound a little bit although high afternoon dispersion is still expected nearly areawide.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog are likely inland Friday Morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Friday 3/27:

KJAX: 90/2023 KCRG: 90/2023 KGNV: 91/1949 KAMG: 88/2021

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 83 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 74 61 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 81 60 88 59 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 77 61 83 61 / 20 0 0 0 GNV 85 59 88 60 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 85 60 87 60 / 10 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.