textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today & Tuesday

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Across Southeast GA Early on Tues Morning

- Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area-Wide

- Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Tuesday night.

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible inland Tonight

Surface high pressure will be centered to the northeast through Tonight, with the ridge extending across the area. Low level moisture left over from recent rains is expected to result in fog potential inland overnight.

SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

- Daily thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor.

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely into midweek.

Onshore flow persists through midweek as High pressure remains over the Bermuda region. Chances of precipitation return on Tuesday and Wednesday as moist air moves in from the Atlantic, bringing PWATs upwards to 1.5" each afternoon. With the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, activity will be focused over inland locations towards the I-75 corridor and north central FL each afternoon. The onshore flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up from 15mph to 20mph possible each afternoon. Daytime highs each afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior to the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will have highs in the mid to upper 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s. Patchy fog is possible inland both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms expected along the sea breeze mergers

Rain chances Thursday are pretty isolated, near 20% inland, as onshore winds continue. Precipitation chances increase area-wide Friday through the weekend as a front stalls near northern Georgia then lifts northward, and steering flow becomes more southerly, allowing sea breeze mergers in a more central location. Highest storm chances overall will be Saturday and Sunday afternoons and evenings, between I-95 and I-75 where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes interact. With PWATs near 1.5-1.75" there is potential for locally heavy downpours within storms.

Each day, high temperatures will generally be in the low 90s inland, and a little cooler near the Atlantic coast with mild low temps in the 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Onshore flow will create the potential for restrictions in stratus near the coast Tonight. Further inland, fog formation will lead to potential restrictions at VQQ and GNV Tonight.

For Tuesday, conditions will trend to VFR during the morning, and continue through the afternoon. There is a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland Tuesday, which could affect GNV. At this point it is too early to place restrictions in GNV TAF for what is expected to be isolated to scattered convection.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure centered to Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states through midweek. An easterly wind surge late this afternoon through this evening will result in Caution level wind speeds for the northeast Florida waters. Prevailing east to southeasterly winds will continue across our local waters during the next several days, with isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week before lifting northward as a warm front during the Holiday weekend. Caution conditions will again be possible for the near shore waters from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda.

Rip Currents:

An easterly wind surge will combine with the outgoing tide and breakers of 2 to 4 feet to create a high rip current risk at all area beaches this afternoon, with similiar conditions on Tuesday likely keeping this high risk in place. Persistent east to southeast winds will keep at least a moderate risk in place at area beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, with high risks again possible from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening easterly wind surges potentially return.

FIRE WEATHER

`...PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEK...

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon through the week. Patchy high dispersions will be present over inland locations Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week. Moisture will steadily increase each day, with thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, mainly for inland northeast FL through Thursday, then area- wide Friday through next weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for inland locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 64 90 64 90 / 0 10 0 10 SSI 71 83 73 84 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 68 86 69 89 / 10 10 0 20 SGJ 73 86 73 87 / 10 10 0 10 GNV 69 91 69 92 / 0 20 0 30 OCF 70 90 70 91 / 10 40 0 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...None.