textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Lingering showers through this afternoon. - Gale Warnings & Small Craft Advisories through Friday Morning

- High Risk of Rip Currents Friday at All Area Beaches

- Beneficial Rainfall and Strong Storms Possible on Sunday and Monday

- Frost Possible for Inland Southeast GA on Tuesday Night & Early Wednesday Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Lingering showers continue through the afternoon hours

- Gale Warnings & Small Craft Advisories through Friday Morning over the local waters

The line of showers has push south of the JAX metro and will push out of north central FL by the mid to late afternoon hours. Lightning has been absent most of the day, but there could be enough instability over north central FL counties to have some storms develop during the afternoon hours.

The rain from earlier has allowed for temperatures to lower into the 60s, but as skies begin to clear, temperatures should rebound a bit. Highs Today will only reach into the mid 70s over inland SE GA, into the mid 80s for locations south of the Jax metro along I-95, the southern St Johns river basin, and north central FL. Winds will continue to be breezy with winds from 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph within any showers.

Tonight, clear skies will develop inland as high pressure builds to the north of the area. Northerly winds turning more north northeasterly, with breezy conditions along the coast and I-95 corridor of NE FL with 10-20 mph winds and gusts up to 25-30 mph. A coastal trough forming over the waters will bring in some low level clouds off the Atlantic onto the NE FL coast to the St Johns river. Much cooler conditions expected over SE GA with lows down to the lower 40s NW of Waycross, mid to upper 40s over inland NE FL along and north of the Santa Fe river and along I-10, with low to mid 50s along the coast and north central FL.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: - Isolated storms Saturday for northeast Florida

Friday will be dry and a little 'cooler' behind today's front, with highs near or just above normal in the 70s to low 80s with an onshore breeze. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 40s across inland southeast Georgia Friday night. Patchy fog will likely develop over much of southeast Georgia and eastern northeast Florida Friday night into Saturday morning.

Showers will creep into northeast Florida on Saturday as southwest steering flow develops with a frontal system dissipating over south- central Florida. Shower coverage increases Saturday night, expanding into much of southeast Georgia, thunder chances remain low near the coast and north central Florida.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Increased Thunderstorm Chances Sunday into Monday - Frost potential Tuesday Night for inland southeast Georgia

High rain chances with thunderstorms will spread through the day Sunday, as southwest flow continues to increase moisture ahead of an incoming cold front. Showers and storms will continue steadily through Monday night when the front moves through the area, leaving chilly high temperatures Tuesday with northwesterly winds.

Temperatures are trending lower for Monday and Tuesday nights, increasing concern for frost development over inland southeast Georgia, especially Tuesday night when winds are calmer and temperatures are a few degrees lower.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Showers continue to push across the area. Winds will continue at around 15-20 knots this afternoon ahead of the line with gusts to 25 knots. Some low end MVFR ceilings will lag behind the line with VCSH before clearing and drier air filter into the area with VFR conditions after 22Z at all sites and breezy northerly winds 12-15 knots gusting to 20 knots trending north northeasterly by the end of the TAF period while weakening gradually.

MARINE

Lingering showers and storms will push over the local waters this afternoon hours, with a few stronger storms possible that could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes. Winds will shift to westerly and then northwesterly by this afternoon to small craft advisory levels. Gale conditions develop by this evening as winds turn more north- northeasterly as high pressure builds to the north. Winds and seas will remain elevated into Friday morning before subsiding Friday afternoon as high pressure shifts to the northeast. As the high moves away, a warm front will slowly lift northward along the Florida peninsula. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase from south to north late Saturday night through Sunday night as this warm front moves across our area. A strong cold front will move through our area Monday, with southwest winds increasing and becoming northwesterly behind the front with small craft advisory conditions returning to the waters through Tuesday.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk expected Today due to offshore flow and generally weak easterly swells. Strong onshore flow Friday will bring a high risk of rip currents to all area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Saturday And Sunday

Friday into Saturday, high pressure will build just north of the region as the cold front exits to the south with drier conditions. Min RHs will drop to 30-35% over portions of inland portions of Southeast Georgia on Saturday. Temperatures inland warm back into the 80s on Saturday resulting in elevated mixing heights and potentially high dispersions. South-southwesterly winds increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front resulting in more area- wide high dispersions. Numerous showers and storms develop on Sunday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia Friday night into Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 74 39 72 46 / 90 0 0 0 SSI 76 51 69 56 / 90 0 0 0 JAX 81 49 75 53 / 90 10 10 0 SGJ 83 55 74 59 / 90 20 10 10 GNV 81 49 80 55 / 90 10 10 0 OCF 82 53 82 58 / 80 20 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450- 452-470-472. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-470-472. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ454-474.