textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated TStorms Possible Along & North of I-10 on Today and Tonight

- Periods of Heavy Rainfall Expected Across Southeast GA Sat & Sat Night

- Periods of Heavy Rainfall Shift Southward Across Northeast FL Late Sat. Isolated TStorms Possible Area-Wide. Severe Weather Not Anticipated.

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas

- Light Freezes & Frost Possible Inland on Mon Night & Tuesday Night Next Week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Showers and possible embedded thunderstorms, initially located over inland southeast Georgia, will build southward into northeast Florida with the heavier showers expected to occur north of the I-10 corridor as moist southwesterly flow associated with broad troughing channels across the region, south of the stalled boundary extending across Georgia. Breezy winds will build in over northeast Florida from out of the southwest and peaking in the afternoon before becoming more mild and variable during the evening and overnight hours. High temperatures for today will reach up into the upper 50s and into the 60s over southeast Georgia behind the cold air boundary with temps southward into northeast Florida rising into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 40s and lower 50s over southeast Georgia and range between the lower to mid 50s and into the mid 60s over northeast Florida, with warmer temps occurring over north central Florida. There is some potential for fog development during the overnight and early AM hours leading into Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Messy and unsettled weekend, but beneficial rain pattern will continue to set up. For Saturday, a cold front will be across the southern zones Saturday morning and slowly ease south as weak high pressure moves just north of the area. This occurs as weak shortwave disturbances ride west to east in the prevailing west to southwest aloft. The front should slide into central FL by Saturday night, but it will begin to stall as the flow aloft backs in response to moderately strong shortwave energy moving into the central U.S. This latter system will begin to form a surface low over the northern Gulf Saturday night. The front will push back into north central FL Sunday into Sunday night with a couple of waves of low pressure moving along the front in our area, with moderate to strong synoptic lift affecting the area in conjunction with plenty of moisture across the area. A complex surface low will finally move offshore of the southeast U.S. coast Monday morning, with a trailing cold front noted over north central FL at that time.

Max temperatures will generally be below normal this weekend, except for the far south zones where some mid to upper 70s possible on Saturday. Chilly for interior southeast GA with highs about 55 to 60. Lows will be above normal given the abundant cloud cover expected and the high chances of rain.

As far as weather, high chances of rain, categorical above 75 percent for southeast GA on Saturday, with this enhanced rain chance slowly moving southeastward into Saturday night and Sunday. Otherwise, likely rain for just above any location Saturday through Sunday night. Have a small chance of thunder for Sunday as better low level convergence is available and there is scant buoyancy in tandem. Any thunder probably will move offshore Sunday night as the sfc low tracks offshore gradually. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

We have additional rainfall amounts of about 1-2 inches forecast for Saturday into Sunday night. There is potential for 3-4 inches during this period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Surface low pressure along the front shifts well northeast of the area on Monday with the trailing cold front sweeping southward over the FL peninsula. Surface high pressure initially over the Ohio and TN valley area will shift southward into mid week. A coastal trough seems to form by Tue and into early Wed keeping the coastal northeast FL breezy at times, but no rain is mentioned at this time. The high does begin to shift south of the area Wed night, with a weak dry front possibly moving into the forecast area on Thursday.

There could be some lingering patches of rain early Monday but should be rain-free by midday through the rest of the mid week period as the high builds into the area and the dry front approaches.

Overall, chilly/below normal temperatures this period with potential for inland light freeze and/or frost for southeast GA.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Light rainfall has overspread all of SE GA early this evening and will impact the SSI terminal with lower VFR CIGS and 6SM vsbys in SHRA at times through 06Z, otherwise mid cloud decks in the 7000- 10000ft range will push across NE FL terminals through 06Z with a few sprinkles (VCSH) at JAX/VQQ/CRG while remaining dry at GNV/SGJ with light and variable winds around 5 knots through tonight, but likely enough wind to prevent any fog fog formation. SW winds increase to 10-12 knots with gusts to 15-18 knots Friday morning by 15Z onward with VFR conds remaining at NE FL terminals, while MVFR CIGS set up at SSI. Wind shift/frontal boundary with shower activity will push southward across the region Friday afternoon, reaching SSI by 18Z with lower MVFR CIGS and NW winds at 10G15 knots, then LIFR by 21Z time frame. The MVFR CIGS/shower activity and wind shift to NW reaches JAX/VQQ/CRG by 21-22Z and SGJ/GNV right at the end of the TAF period and have tweaked TAF forecast to show this downward trend in CIGS/VSBYS.

MARINE

Weak low pressure along the northern Gulf coast will lift a warm front northeastward across our local waters today, accompanied by showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Weak low pressure will move northeastward across southeastern Georgia this afternoon, with this storm system's cold front then crossing our local waters on Friday night and Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure will then develop along this front just south of the northeast Florida waters on Saturday night, with widespread rainfall and a few embedded thunderstorms likely across our local waters through Sunday. Low pressure will then strengthen as it moves offshore on Sunday night and Monday, resulting in strengthening north northwesterly winds as rainfall ends, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible from Monday through early Tuesday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Saturday NE FL Low Saturday

FIRE WEATHER

Mostly cloudy and wet for today through and the weekend. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected through the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front that will move through Sunday night. The showers will be heaviest today over Southeast GA into the Suwannee Valley with the axis of heavier showers moving into Northeast FL late Saturday into much of Sunday before ending by Sunday Night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with the heavier showers as well, but no severe storms are expected.

The clouds, low mixing heights, and the lighter winds will allow for low daytime dispersions through the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected over the next few days, but there's some potential for rain mixed with fog for early Saturday morning. Potential for heavy rainfall will produce rainfall totals of 2-4 inches for most locations with the highest amounts over Southeast GA locations into portions of inland northeast FL.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 48 56 45 60 / 60 90 60 40 SSI 53 62 50 63 / 50 80 80 60 JAX 55 66 52 64 / 30 60 80 70 SGJ 60 71 56 69 / 20 40 70 80 GNV 60 73 56 69 / 20 50 70 80 OCF 63 76 58 72 / 20 50 70 80

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.