textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Flood Watch for locations west of I-75. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts of 4 to 6

- Numerous TStorms through Early Week. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at NE FL Beaches Today

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong/Severe Storms Today

- Locally Heavy rainfall and flooding Possible, mainly west of the I- 75 corridor (Flood Watch)

Breezy and moist SSW flow develops today with the area between an elongated trough digging into the SE US and the Atlantic ridge building westward toward the US east coast. Anomalously high PWATs of 2.3-2.5 inches continue to surge into the area ahead of the slowly approaching front from the NW. Lingering upper impulses are helping to trigger showers in the early morning hours with heavier showers from the NE Gulf moving into the I-75 corridor. With high moisture, lift and instability, waves of numerous showers and thunderstorms will move through from the SW to NE across NE FL and SE GA in the mid-morning into early evening hours. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Gilchrist, Suwannee, SW Columbia, W Alachua, and W Marion Counties where 2 to 3 inches of rainfall are possible in areas of slow moving or training thunderstorms. Flooding remains a primary concern for low lying areas, urban centers, poor drainage locations, and small creeks, especially along and west of I-75. Along with a flood risk, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon into evening capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. Another round of showers will likely move through early Monday morning. Outside of storms, breezy SW winds will range from 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Highs today will be below normal due to mostly cloudy skies and increased convection, only reaching the mid to upper 80s in NE FL to low 90s in SE GA. Lows will be in the lower 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Strong to severe afternoon and evening thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall potential

The region will be between high pressure ridge to the south, and a frontal zone to the north this period. Combination of diurnal instability, ample moisture, and convergence ahead of the front will yield above average convective coverage, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures will trend below average this period.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening

The frontal will weaken mid week. High pressure will build to the northeast later in the week, with a trough developing over the local area late in the week into the weekend.

Convective chances will be closer to average this period, driven mainly be ample moisture, sea breeze interactions and diurnal instability.

Temperatures will trend near to a little below average this period.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Early morning showers will be in the vicinity of the TAF sites with southerly winds of 5-10 kts. Showers with potential MVFR ceilings and visibilities increase from SW to NE by mid morning and then becoming numerous for the afternoon. In addition, we have TEMPO and PROB30 groups for the showers and storms. Generally looks like more IFR chances for TSRA at GNV.

MARINE

A cool front moving through the southeastern US will shift into Georgia today and stall through mid-week. This will help strengthen southwest winds beginning this morning, with Caution level winds, and then increasing to Small Craft Advisory conditions later this afternoon through early Monday morning. A prevailing offshore wind flow is expected through mid-week. High coverage of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday. A few strong storms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds through Tuesday will likely yield a low to low-end moderate risk at area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, with gusty and erratic winds, along with heavy rainfall and flooding

- Patchy high dispersions inland Tuesday

Persistent southwesterly flow will drive numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Outside of storms, southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph (gusts 20-25 mph) are expected across northeast Florida. Fire weather operations should anticipate sudden, erratic wind shifts associated with thunderstorm outflows. Dispersion values will generally remain fair to good due to increased transport winds, though cloud cover and precipitation will limit daytime mixing heights.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this week, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Gusty and erratic winds are possible in and near storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 90 74 88 72 / 80 40 70 20 SSI 91 77 90 77 / 70 30 80 30 JAX 89 75 90 74 / 70 30 80 20 SGJ 89 75 90 75 / 80 20 70 10 GNV 86 74 87 72 / 80 60 80 30 OCF 87 74 89 74 / 80 50 70 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ021-035-236-340-522. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470-472.