textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Red Flag Warning for Locations East of U.S.-301 in Northeast & North Central FL this Afternoon & Evening. Gusty Southwesterly Winds will Combine with Low Humidity & Ongoing Drought Conditions. Elevated Fire Danger Elsewhere Due to Breezy Conditions & Ongoing Drought

- Strong to Isolated Severe TStorms Possible through Early this Evening. Main Impact Area: Locations Along and North of the I-10 Corridor. Main Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Isolated Tornadoes

- Near Record High Temperatures Today for Northeast FL

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Friday Afternoon through Monday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Red Flag Warning for Locations East of U.S. Highway 301 this Afternoon Due to Gusty Southwesterly Winds, Near Critically Low Humidity Values, and Ongoing Drought Conditions

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon for The Suwannee Valley and Southeast Georgia. Main hazards are wind gusts of 40-60 mph and isolated tornadoes.

Heavy cloud cover moving into northeast Florida not until later this afternoon will allow for temperatures to heat up to near-record breaking, with even the immediate coast seeing highs in the 90s due to the southwesterly winds pinning the Atlantic sea breeze. Hot temperatures and breezy southwesterly winds will maintain elevated fire danger over most of the region, with a Red Flag Warning still in effect through this evening for the St. Johns River Basin eastward. Pulled back on high temperatures over most of southeast GA and the Suwannee valley as enhanced cloud cover and beneficial rainfall all morning has limited heating.

Convective models are showing stronger storms likely moving into the Suwannee Valley area mid-afternoon, where better instability will be. Primary hazards continue to be gusty winds of 40-60 mph and isolated tornadoes. This evening, trends are leaning towards weakening storms as they move into the rest of northeast FL.

A few lingering showers will be present after sunset near I-10 and slowly drifting southward as the front moves into central Florida. Southwesterly winds will begin to calm after sunset as well, and gradually shift more northerly towards sunrise. Very mild low temperatures forecast tonight, likely staying in the low 70s south of I-10.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Shower/T'storm Chances Friday, More Numerous Saturday

The frontal boundary is expected to stall just south of the region on Friday, which will bring more of an onshore northeasterly flow as well as some drier air in the low levels across southeast GA as weak high pressure builds in from the north. Most of the area will have low chances of any showers and t'storms just behind the front, with the greatest potential being areas furthest south during the afternoon and evening hours as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland. Elsewhere, only slightly drier and cooler behind the boundary with plenty of mid and high clouds expected. Temps will be mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s north of about I-10, with upper 80s to low 90s south despite some of the higher cloud cover.

Mid level flow above the boundary becomes more active late Friday Night and throughout Saturday/Saturday Night, which will result in periods of more numerous showers and some isolated embedded t'storms during this time frame. Guidance suggests that more numerous activity could begin as early as late Friday Night over inland GA, with these "waves" of rainfall and embedded convection spreading further southward into Saturday as well. Highest coverage as well as QPF amounts look to be across southeast GA where the more favorable upper support will be, which could reach as high as 0.5-1.0" in some areas during the Friday Night - Saturday Night time frame. This will trend closer to the 0.25-0.5 range for most of northeast FL. High temps Saturday will be similarly in the low to mid 80s north and upper 80s to low 90s south. Lows will be mainly in the 60s to low 70s both Friday and Saturday Night.

Most of the rainfall will be beneficial to the ongoing drought situation, although with some more heating expected during the afternoon hours across NE FL on Saturday, a few storms may become strong with gusty winds and small hail possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Unsettled Weather Continues Sunday and Monday - Drier Conditions Look to Return Tuesday through Thursday

Frontal boundary will meander near the region on Sunday through early next week, persisting periods of showers and isolated t'storms before a stronger boundary with more significant upper level support looks to dive southeastward Monday. This could return higher potential for strong to severe t'storms Monday, but also have enough momentum for this boundary to push well south of the area for Tuesday and into mid week. Drier and "cooler" conditions relative to the time of year are expected on Tuesday, before a return to more seasonable temps well into the 80s as drier weather continues into Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through most of the day with breezy southwesterly winds. Thunderstorm chances for the Duval sites have decreased since this morning, so opted to remove PROB30s for thunder at this time, just leaving showers possible around 22-03Z. Isolated showers will linger around GNV in the early morning hours. MVFR ceiling probabilities have increased for after midnight tonight at all sites, with IFR possible at GNV and VQQ. Storm chances return for GNV and SGJ Friday afternoon.

MARINE

A cold front moving across the southeastern states tonight will slow its forward progress as it approaches our local waters on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon and evening ahead of this front across mainly the Georgia waters, where strong to isolated severe storms possible. The frontal boundary will push across the Georgia waters after midnight on Thursday night, stalling by Friday evening across the northeast Florida waters. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this front on Friday afternoon, with an increasing coverage expected this weekend through Monday. A round of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon and evening, well in advance of another cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. This front will sweep southeastward across our local waters on Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by additional showers and thunderstorms that will shift offshore on Monday night. Breezy northerly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will shift to northeasterly by Tuesday morning as high pressure builds into the southeastern states, with Caution conditions likely and Small Craft Advisory conditions possible through Tuesday afternoon.

Rip Currents:

Breezy southwesterly winds will prevail through at least mid- afternoon today, with a weak sea breeze potentially developing during the late afternoon hours. These winds and a fading southeasterly ocean swell will yield a low risk at area beaches. Winds will shift to northerly late tonight and Friday morning and then northeasterly by Friday afternoon, possibly creating a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches, with low surf heights at the southeast GA beaches likely keeping the risk low. An afternoon sea breeze on Saturday may keep a lower end moderate risk in place at the northeast FL beaches, and prevailing south- southwesterly winds on Sunday may reduce the risk back to low at area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Dispersions Area-Wide This Afternoon - High Dispersions Over Northeast Fl Saturday And Sunday

A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to mainly northern portions of the area, and isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with wind gusts up to 40-60 mph. Hot and dry conditions are expected for portions of northeast and north central Florida out ahead of the front this afternoon and evening with breezy winds and low relative humidity down as low as 30 percent possible for areas generally east of HWY 301. The sea breeze is expected to remained pinned near the Atlantic coast, and therefore significant wind shifts are not expected, except in/near showers and t'storms. Breezy transport winds and high mixing heights will lead to areas of high dispersions as well.

This front will drop southward through tonight then stall over northeast FL, providing continued showers and thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Another cold front will move through on Monday, bringing another round of showers and storms. High pressure will build toward the middle of next week ushering in a period of drier weather.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog is possible late tonight, mainly across the I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley of inland North FL. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any expected thunderstorms near or north of about I-10.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for today:

Thu, May 7: JAX: 94/1977 CRG: 94/1977 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 93/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 85 62 79 61 / 70 30 0 40 SSI 87 66 78 69 / 50 40 0 40 JAX 95 70 86 67 / 30 30 0 30 SGJ 97 72 84 70 / 10 20 10 20 GNV 92 72 92 69 / 10 20 30 20 OCF 91 72 92 70 / 0 20 20 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ024-038- 124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-233-237-325-333-425-433- 533-633. GA...None. MARINE...None.