textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Afternoon & Evening TStorms Area-Wide Through Most of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms, A Few Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible, with locally heavy rainfall

A moist airmass (PWATs >2.0") remains in place with deep southwesterly flow and a stalled front near northern Georgia. Showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to track across northeast Florida, with an increase in activity expected later this afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards I-95. Heavy cloud cover over southeast Georgia is limiting storm potential, however any clearing will promote favorable conditions for strong storms to develop. Overall, primary concerns today will be gusty to damaging winds coming mainly from boundary interactions, and localized flooding rainfall caused by training storms. Strong to isolated severe storm potential will dwindle after sunset.

Due to the heavy cloud cover, most of inland southeast Georgia will not see 90 degrees today, whereas the rest of the area will rise into the lower to mid 90s, even at the immediate Atlantic coast.

Convection will linger after sunset tonight, especially over southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley area, closer to the dissipating front. Low temperatures will be in the lower to mid 70s tonight.

SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

- Isolated Strong Storms and Locally Heavy Rainfall Wednesday - Elevated Heat and Possible Heat Advisory Conditions Thursday

Southwesterly flow will continue to bring Gulf moisture over the area through midweek. The daily pattern of showers and thunderstorms is expected to continue through the rest of the week with periods of heavy rainfall and strong gusts with any storms that do develop. Looking further west, the tropical low currently over southern Texas is expected to push northeast across the Gulf waters and onshore over the Gulf coast west of our area. What this means for our area is there will likely be an increase in PoPs for portions of SE GA north of Waycross, GA as the tropical wave pushes inland.

Increased cloud cover for locations north of the I-10 corridor will bring highs in the 80s across SE GA and the I-10 corridor, while the highs in the 90s for locations south of the I-10 corridor. By Thursday, most locations will have highs in the 90s, where dewpoints in the mid 70s will bring the potential for conditions to near Heat Advisory criteria during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily rounds of thunderstorms, increasing over the weekend - Hot and Humid through the Weekend - Increasing Rip Current Risk, likely to moderate levels, over the Weekend

Moist southwesterly flow will promote elevated chances for Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially for SE GA and the I-95 corridor to end the week.

The overall pattern is expected to remain from the southwest through the weekend, which will push any diurnal convection to push from west to east towards the Atlantic coast. Guidance continues to indicate a frontal boundary will sink across the area by Sunday. As the front sinks across the area, the potential for strong to severe storms to develop will increase along the front during the afternoon to evening hours on Saturday.

Hotter than typical conditions for late June are expected to end the week and into next week with triple-digit peak heat index readings expected especially across NE FL.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Showers and thunderstorms will linger in the vicinity of the TAF sites this evening with much of the activity waning by 03-06Z. A few storms may impact GNV, VQQ and SGJ within the next couple of hours. Light rain and potentially lower ceilings could develop over SSI after 06Z. Light winds around 5 kts overnight will increase to southwest around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts. Another round of showers and storms will move across the sites mainly for the Duval sites and SSI.

MARINE

The region will be between high pressure to the south southeast, and a weakening frontal zone stalled just north of the local waters through at least the next several days. This will continue predominant southwest to west flow which will become breezy at times, with brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions for the offshore waters and especially during the overnight hours. The offshore flow will continue to push rounds strong storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning into the coastal waters mainly in the afternoon hours. Another frontal boundary drops southward toward the area Friday into Saturday.

Rip Currents:

A general low risk of rip currents continues today and likely through mid week as surf remains only in the 1-2 ft range in the predominant offshore flow. Some slight increase in east-southeast wind-sea is possible Thursday and Friday, but still looks relatively weak.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Dispersion for North-Central FL Wednesday - High Dispersion for inland locations just west of I-95 Thursday

Hot, moist, and unstable air will continue with predominantly a southwesterly wind through the end of the week. Periods of locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms. Outside of convection, favorable transport winds and mixing heights will lead to areas of high afternoon dispersion values. Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly above seasonal normals throughout the period, accompanied by elevated humidity levels.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas that receive heavier rainfall may also experience patchy late-night and early-morning fog.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 70 83 74 89 / 80 90 10 70 SSI 75 88 79 92 / 70 70 10 70 JAX 74 89 77 94 / 60 50 10 60 SGJ 75 92 77 95 / 40 30 10 70 GNV 75 91 76 94 / 30 20 10 30 OCF 76 91 77 94 / 20 10 10 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.