textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Inland Fog Late Tonight. Highest Impact Area: I-75 Corridor

- Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Early this morning...Weakening frontal boundary still on track drifting into SE GA, although most of the isolated shower activity along this feature has faded. Next impact will be low stratus and fog development ahead of the low level boundary across inland NE FL as moisture pooling develops and expect at least areas of dense fog development along and south of the I-10 corridor through sunrise as low temps only fall into the 60s for most locations. Too early for any dense fog advisory placements, but will be possible along the I- 75 corridor in the GNV/OCF vicinity around sunrise.

Today...Weakening frontal boundary sags southward through NE FL and ends up stalled across Central FL by late this afternoon. Drier air mass will slowly filter in across SE GA, while an isolated shower not out of the question across inland NE FL during the afternoon hours, but overall rainfall chances remain at 10 percent or less. Not much cooler air behind this boundary and above normal temps will continue as Northwest winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, become NE by the late afternoon hours. Max temps around 80F across SE GA and lower 80s for NE FL, except for mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast in the developing onshore flow.

Tonight...High pressure builds in north of the region while old frontal boundary remains stalled across Central FL. Light NE flow under mostly clear skies will promote fog formation over inland areas, with at least areas of dense fog formation expected by late night and through sunrise Monday Morning, with dense fog advisories possible once again. Low temps in the lower 50s across inland SE GA and mid/upper 50s across inland NE FL and lower 60s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Monday, a mid to upper level short wave trough will move east of New England through Nova Scotia with ridging aloft over the eastern third of the country. The departing trough will remove the upper level support for a cold front to the south and cause it to stall over the FL peninsula as high pressure over the central Appalachians slowly moves east to the Mid Atlantic coast. As the high to the north moves east, northeasterly winds 10-15 mph at the coast will turn easterly, lessening with inland extent to 5-10 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny under high level cirrus clouds. Highs will be above normal in the upper 70s over inland SE GA, lower 80s over inland NE FL and the low to mid 70s along the coast.

Monday night, the high will move into the western Atlantic waters as low level ridging moves between NE FL and Bermuda. High level clouds from the west will drift over the area with increasing Atlantic stratocumulus moving in from the southeast as light east to southeasterly flow veers southerly with height. Lows will be above normal in the mid to upper 50s inland and the low to mid 60s along the coast and the St Johns river. Patchy fog will develop away from the coast over NE FL.

Tuesday, high pressure will exit away to the northeast with low level ridging extending westward over the area from the ENE. Flow will become southeasterly near the coast and southerly inland as a developing storm system approaches from the northwest. Warmer conditions under a mix of low level clouds from the Atlantic and high level cirrus will allow highs in the low 80s over SE GA and the low to mid 80s over NE FL with upper 70s along the immediate coast.

Tuesday night, A potent shortwave trough will drive ESE across the upper Midwest and deepen troughing east of the Rockies. A strong cold front will move quickly eastward through the deep south states into Wednesday morning. Moist south to southwest flow off the Gulf waters will allow for patchy fog to develop over NE FL areas. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s inland and the low to mid 60s over the coast/St Johns river. Showers will remain west of the area though sunrise.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Wednesday, a deep trough will shift east through the eastern half of the country with an embedded negatively tilted shortwave trough swinging through the Great Lakes. This feature will drive a cold front through the area on Wednesday, but strongest mid to upper level support and broad scale lift will shift north of the region and limit the risk of rainfall and T'storms to generally isolated coverage from the Suwannee Valley into SE GA while much less chances towards the NE FL coast. One more warm day expected as good mixing will boost highs to near record levels (see climate section) in the mid 80s over NE FL and upper 70s/low 80s over SE GA with near 80 readings along the coast.

Thursday, strong high pressure centered near the upper plains will build a colder and drier airmass through the southeast states into NE FL. Brisk NW winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny with high level clouds over NE FL as fast jet stream winds streak across the FL peninsula. Highs will be in the mid 60s over SE GA and the upper 60s to low 70s over NE FL.

Friday, the strong high will build to the north over the central appalachians and north winds will turn northeasterly. While dry conditions and sunny skies prevail, cold air advection will limit highs to the low 60s over SE GA and the mid to upper 60s over NE FL. Lows Friday morning will be chilly in the mid 30s over inland SE GA/upper 30s west of Trail Ridge.

Saturday, the high will move onto the Mid Atlantic coast with increasing gradient winds from the east as another deep trough develops over the central US, spurring a developing storm system over the lower MS valley. Highs will warm into the upper 60s over SE GA with low 70s over NE FL. Another chilly start with lows in the mid 30s will greet inland SE GA, but winds may be too high to allow frost formation.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Bigger impact tonight will be stratus and fog as it develops west to east just ahead of the approaching front, with restrictions lowering through the night. Continued to trend SSI, JAX and CRG toward MVFR while higher confidence of IFR to LIFR restrictions impacts VQQ and GNV developing near GNV first, then expanding under WSW winds toward VQQ and potential SGJ through 12z. Drier air moves southward trailing the frontal passage after 12z with winds becoming NW and low stratus lifting through 13-15z. VFR expected into the afternoon under NNW to NNE winds at coastal terminals with winds < 10 kts. Another round of low clouds and fog expected Sunday Night, but this will not develop until after the current TAF period.

SYNOPSIS

A weak and mostly dry frontal boundary will push south across the local waters today. High pressure builds north of the region tonight into Monday, with breezy onshore winds. The high builds east of the Atlantic coast Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. The front will press south of the local waters late Wednesday into Thursday, trailed by offshore flow and winds near Small Craft Exercise Caution levels.

Rip Currents: Low Risk with surf/breakers 1-2 feet today becoming Moderate on Monday/Tuesday with breakers 2-3 feet.

DISCUSSION

PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 THIS AFTERNOON...

AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY...

CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES RESUME OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

Cold front will press through the area early this morning and into Northeast Florida this afternoon with northwest winds 5-10 mph as high pressure builds in from the northwest today. Fair daytime dispersions expected south of I-10 with good to patchy high end dispersions along and north of I-10 due to elevated mixing heights behind the front. High pressure will be north of the area Monday and shift off the Mid Atlantic coast by evening with northeasterly winds turning easterly in the afternoon hours. High pressure will exit northeast of the region Tuesday with a warm front lifting north across the area allowing winds to become southerly, but no rain expected. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and then push through the area late Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and isolated T'storms over Southeast GA, but with swift enough movement to prevent a wetting rainfall. Increasing southwesterly surface and transport winds will produce areas of high daytime dispersions Wednesday.

A much drier airmass arrives for the end of the week as strong high pressure builds in from the northwest that will place critically low Min RH values over the area Thursday and Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Areas of dense fog will develop early this morning, becoming widespread along the I-75 corridor and the Suwannee Valley. Areas of dense will develop tonight away from the coast as the cold front slowly shifts south of the area. Patchy fog will remain possible across NE FL both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

SUN 11/23 MON 11/24 TUE 11/25 WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1992 86/2014 85/1992 84/1946 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 83/2013 84/2014 83/1992 83/2020 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 88/1906 86/1948 85/1955 84/1973 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 84/1941 83/1986 83/1986 84/1973

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 51 78 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 73 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 57 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 78 63 80 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 57 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 58 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.