textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Fog Sunday Morning, locally dense. Along & east of Highway 301 to the coast.

- High Risk of Rip Currents Through the Weekend

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer Through Next Week. Elevated Wildfire Danger This Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Currents continues at NE FL/SE GA beaches

- Locally dense fog possible late night/early morning hours

High pressure ridge axis will remain in place across the Carolinas and into GA through tonight with a dry air mass in place as PWATs will remain generally less than an inch and despite the continued onshore flow, rainfall chances will remain less than 10 percent.

Temps will remain near normal at night and become slightly above normal during the afternoon hours. The drought conditions and drier air mass will support low temps in the 50s inland at below NBM guidance values and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast. Max temps will push into the lower/middle 80s inland, around 80F along the I- 95 corridor and mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast as East Coast sea breeze develops and pushes well inland this afternoon and expect East winds to increase to 10-15G20-25 mph as the sea breeze pushes inland through the afternoon hours.

Main weather impact other than a high risk of rip currents at local beaches, will be locally dense fog potential from the I-95 corridor inland to the US-301 corridor both early this morning and again late Sunday Night. Dense fog chances will be highest from I-10 northward across SE GA, closer to the Western Atlantic ridge axis where boundary layer winds are lighter. Dense fog advisories not expected, but cannot be ruled out due to the clear skies during the overnight hours which will help boundary layer cooling.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy fog each morning, which may become locally dense.

High pressure will be located to the east northeast of the region throughout this period. The ridge will be overhead, which will help to suppress clouds and precipitation chances.

A light flow across the waters, under clear skies will yield the chance for nocturnal fog formation.

Temperatures will trend above average this period, especially inland. With the onshore flow across coastal waters which are in the 60s, the coolest daytime readings will be at the coast, while the opposite will be the case at night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry and unseasonably warm

High pressure will remain centered to the east northeast this period, with ridge extending overhead. While the high will gradually weaken and move further east, the dry and unseasonably warm weather will continue.

As the ridge moves further east, the flow will gradually become more from the south then southwest. The east coast sea breeze will not be able to move as far inland later in the week, due to the southwest flow, allowing higher afternoon temperatures to spread further east.

Inland highs in the 90s will be common by Friday, except east of I95.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions expected early in the TAF period with MVFR/IFR fog developing at most TAF sites from 09Z-14Z. Generally clear skies will support some fog formation from the coast to GNV. Tempo restrictions for LIFR to VLIFR conditions in place at JAX/CRG/VQQ 10- 13Z. VFR levels resume after 14Z with easterly winds and a few low level cumulus clouds 3.5-4.0 kft becoming clear in the after noon with winds 6-10 knots bumping up to around 10 knots at all sites. Winds become near calm once again after sunset with VFR conds through the end of the current TAF period.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the weekend into next week. Elevated seas today over the area waters, mostly from east swells, will gradually subside through early next week.

Rip Currents and Surf:

East swells and onshore flow this weekend will keep a high risk of rip currents with rough surf of 3-5 ft. May be able to drop the rip current risk to Moderate for Monday and Tuesday as surf/breakers drops to 2-4 ft.

FIRE WEATHER

- MinRH values below 30 percent common this period - Areas of high dispersions Today - Patchy high dispersions NE FL Monday and Wednesday - Patchy high dispersions inland SE GA Thursday and Saturday

High pressure ridging will prevail this period, with dry weather continuing.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog this morning, and again Tonight.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001

April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 87 53 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 75 62 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 82 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 79 61 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 86 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 85 55 87 58 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.