textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches this Weekend with a Moderate Risk at Southeast GA beaches

- Patchy Dense Fog Possible Sunday and Monday Mornings over inland locations

UPDATE

Mainly clear skies, calm winds, and cooler temperatures expected tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 60s, more mild near the Atlantic coast. Some patchy inland fog cannot be ruled out in the early morning hours Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected.

- Elevated surf and high risk of rip currents this weekend.

We expect benign, fall-like conditions this period as a weak surface high pressure system remains across the southeast states, featuring mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and near seasonable temperatures. On Sunday, low level flow is northeasterly which favors cumulus clouds at times, but shifts to a drier northerly flow on Monday. May also see some increased high clouds at times as an upper level trough and low over the TX area send high level moisture to the east and into our area. Highs will run in the 70s, except around 80 degrees toward inland north central FL. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s most areas, but mid 50s to near 60 degrees near the coast. Some patchy shallow fog (probably dense fog in some locations) is possible Sunday morning and again Monday morning given light boundary layer winds and moist low levels. Main concerns are at the beaches where some occasional rough surf and moderate to high rip current risk exist.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy conditions to end the week and through the weekend.

- Chilly conditions develop next weekend.

The aforementioned upper trough over the lower U.S. will push east and open up/dampen as a north-stream trough digs across the eastern third of the CONUS during the middle to late period next week. The leading shortwave will drift across the northern Gulf and the local area on Wednesday - Thursday bringing some increased clouds and possibly some scattered precip. The more significant shortwave energy will drop into the eastern U.S. out of Canada on Wednesday- Wednesday night, providing for a sharpening mid to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS Thursday and Friday, with a 500 mb low developing Thursday night into Friday over the Ohio Valley. The guidance has been trending toward a better chance of some showers/rain for the Wed-Thu time frame due to weak sfc troughing and the upper trough so we will be increasing chances for Wednesday night into Thursday when the best chances are expected. For now, we will have chances at 20-40 percent...peaking on Thursday. Once the lead cold front pushes through later on Thursday, breezy post- frontal winds and dry conditions expected Thursday night and continues into Saturday. Highs on Thursday in the 70s, but strong cold air advection behind the front after Thursday evening may bring overnight lows down toward the upper 30s to 40 for portions of inland SE GA next weekend followed by highs capped in the 60s most locations Friday to Saturday. The temps on Friday to Saturday will be about 6-12 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Overall, VFR conditions are expected, with some low potential for MVFR to IFR visibilities at the inland sites (VQQ and GNV) in the early morning hours. Winds will remain calm overnight, picking up to the 5-10 knot range after sunrise Sunday.

MARINE

Winds will lighten and become more northeasterly into early Sunday morning before high pressure building eastward in to the Carolinas elevates northeast winds to near caution levels Sunday afternoon. Seas will also remain elevated, but just below Caution levels for the offshore waters today through Monday. High pressure will then weaken over the southeastern states by Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside.

Rip Currents:

High risk of Rip Currents through Sunday for northeast Florida beaches, with moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

LOW MIN RH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND SOUTHEAST GA - Monday Afternoon And Tuesday Afternoon

Conditions will trend drier through the weekend and into early next week with light to breezy northwesterly winds today gradually veering northeasterly through Sunday. Due to the lighter winds - both at the surface and the transport wind - poor dispersions are likely for the next several days. Though afternoon humidities will trend lower Monday and Tuesday, critical humidity is unlikely through the next week. After a brief rebound in temperatures and humidity through the middle of next week, another strong cold front will push through the area Friday bringing chilly conditions and breezy winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog possible Sunday and Monday mornings. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 51 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 72 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 55 77 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 77 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 53 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 54 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.