textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate to High Risk Continues at All Area Beaches through the Weekend

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible Thurs & Sun Afternoon through Mon

- Areas of Morning Fog Inland Wednesday through Sunday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

UPDATE

Current forecast on track with little change. Watching on radar a few showers and a storm mainly over Gilchrist county where a convergence of sea breezes has materialized. This convective activity will likely dissipate over the next 1-2 hours. Otherwise, lows mild in the lower 60s to upper 50s with mostly clear skies. A chance of patchy to areas of fog again tonight, mainly from the I-10 northward, with moderate confidence of some locally dense fog from near JAX northward to Brunswick area and inland to about Jesup, Blackshear to Folkston. Think the patchy to areas of fog could develop as early as midnight to 1 AM and linger until about 9 AM Wednesday. Modified some POPs for Wednesday to reflect latest guidance.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tuesday Night:

- High Risk for Rip Currents at the Northeast FL Beaches Today. Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches.

- Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight

Relatively weak steering flow will allow for both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes to push inland and interact, sparking up isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon near the I-75 corridor. Southeasterly surface winds will keep coastal temperatures cooler, highs in the mid to upper 70s while inland locations rise into the lower to mid 80s.

Tonight, calm winds will pave the way for patchy fog development over southeast Georgia and most of northeast Florida, with higher chances for patchy to areas of dense fog over inland southeast Georgia.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- A few thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east northeast Thursday through Friday night. This pattern will continue the onshore flow. Weak coastal troughs are expected to develop in this pattern and move ashore during this period. These troughs will keep the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast at times this period. The greatest chance will be on Thursday, when a stronger trough is expected to move ashore.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm potential each day this period. The greatest potential for stronger storms will be on Sunday afternoon and evening.

The high will move further away to the east northeast Friday and Saturday. A cold front will move southeast into area Sunday afternoon, and pass to the southeast into central FL Sunday night.

The frontal boundary will move north and stall over NE FL Monday into Tuesday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected for Friday through Sunday, with activity increasing on Monday and Tuesday.

Temperatures this period will remain above normal through the weekend, then trend below into next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

VFR expected through the late evening. For later tonight, patchy fog development is likely to impact some locations, with perhaps the best chances at SSI where the cross-over temp is better there. For now, have advertised possible IFR vsby (and vsby could even be lower) for SSI, and left the MVFR vsby for JAX and VQQ for early Wednesday morning. Fog and any stratus should dissipate after 13z- 14z with VFR clouds thereafter. Light southeast to east winds will diminish tonight with mainly east=southeast winds up to 8-12 kt on Wednesday.

MARINE

High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states, maintaining persistent onshore winds and elevated seas, especially for the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisory level seas expected to redevelop over the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida on Thursday afternoon and evening, where seas will slowly build through the upcoming weekend. Elevated seas will expand to the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida on Thursday night and Friday, and Small Craft Advisories may develop over these near shore waters by late in the weekend. Meanwhile, an inverted trough will approaching our waters from the east late on Wednesday night, generate scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout our local waters on Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible late this week and through the weekend in the breezy onshore flow pattern. A cold front will then enter the southeastern states late this weekend, likely crossing our local waters on Monday, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents:

Breakers will only gradually diminish at area beaches today, with values of 3-5 feet at the northeast FL beaches today and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches. A high risk of rip currents will remain in place at the northeast FL beaches today, where breakers will combine with a persistent easterly ocean swell to create dangerous surf conditions. A high end moderate risk is expected at the southeast GA beaches today. Breaker heights will briefly diminish to the 2-4 foot range at the northeast FL beaches on Wednesday, likely yielding a higher end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches, with a moderate risk continuing at the southeast GA beaches. Breezy southeasterly winds late this week will increase breakers back to the 3-5 foot range from Friday through the upcoming weekend at the northeast FL beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches, with a longer period easterly ocean swell likely creating a high risk at all area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions This Period

High pressure will be located to the northeast of the region through Saturday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Sunday into Sunday night. This boundary will then stall over northern FL early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy morning fog potential this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 60 85 59 84 / 0 10 0 10 SSI 62 75 63 76 / 0 0 0 30 JAX 60 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 30 SGJ 62 78 63 80 / 0 10 0 50 GNV 59 86 59 86 / 0 10 0 50 OCF 60 86 61 87 / 0 20 0 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.