textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk all Local Beaches Today and Friday. Elevated Risk Returns Early Next Week

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Main Hazards: Locally Heavy Rain, Lightning & Gusty Winds Up to 40-50 mph

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Locally Dense Fog for Suwannee Valley/I-75 Corridor Monday Morning

A surface trough and moisture situated near the I-10 corridor tonight may lead to patchy to areas fog formation during the predawn hours Monday, especially across the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor where locally dense fog may develop by daybreak.

Temperatures hot again today and up to 2-4 deg above seasonal averages, with heat indices up to 104 to 108. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: (Monday through Tuesday night)

- Thunderstorm chances Monday over NE FL, and over eastern counties of SE GA and NE FL Tuesday

A trough of low pressure will be over the area on Monday. North of this trough over SE GA, drier air will moving into the region. With the drier air moving in precipitation chances will be largely limited to NE FL.

This trough will dissipate as it sinks to the south Monday night. Strong high pressure will build to the northeast Tuesday and Tuesday night. As the high builds to the northeast, a surge of winds will move south across the local coastal waters. Elevated winds can be expected along the coast of SE GA and NE FL, and even further inland across NE FL, due to orientation of the flow. An inverted trough is expected to develop Tuesday along the coast, which will help produce convection, mainly over eastern counties.

Temperatures will trend above average this period.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: (Wednesday through Sunday)

- Daily chances for thunderstorms, with greatest chance near the coast Wednesday and Thursday

Strong high pressure will remain centered to the northeast Wednesday, with an inverted trough along the coast. This pattern will continue the elevated winds across the area, especially at the coast. Precipitation chances will be greatest along the coast due to convergence associated with inverted trough.

The high to the northeast will weaken Thursday, as troughing remains along the coast. With the ridge weakening, the winds will be lighter. The weakening ridge will also allow precipitation to spread further inland through the day.

Another high will build to the north over the weekend.

Temperatures will trend around average this period.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are predominantly expected through Monday morning for coastal terminals. However, at inland terminals, KVQQ and KGNV, with around a 20-30% chance of LIFR low stratus around 09-12z Monday morning. Monday, best chances for thunderstorms will be at GNV and VQQ in the mid-afternoon, with lower chances for the other northeast Florida sites, and storms unlikely near SSI.

MARINE

Offshore winds will continue across the area water on Monday, except for a sea breeze which will shift winds to the southeast and south during the afternoon hours. On Monday, less thunderstorm activity is expected and likely be limited to northeast Florida nearshore waters. From Tuesday through Thursday, a strong northeast wind surge will bring small craft advisory conditions, rough seas, and numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over the area waters. Improving conditions are expected by Friday as onshore winds weaken and seas gradually lower.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds (except for an afternoon sea breeze) and weak easterly swells will keep a low-end moderate risk of rip currents in effect the next couple of days. By Tuesday, strengthening northeast winds and building surf combine to lead to dangerous surf and a high rip current risk area beaches during through at least Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY - Afternoons

Weak troughing over the area will dissipate through Monday. Strong high pressure will build to the the northeast Tuesday and remain through Thursday, with an inverted trough developing along the coast. Winds will be elevated during the period from Tuesday through Thursday, especially at the coast. The high will weaken Friday, with another strong high building to the north over the weekend.

Daily thunderstorm chances this period, with greatest chances closer to the coast this period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 74 94 73 91 / 0 10 10 30 SSI 77 92 79 88 / 20 20 30 60 JAX 75 93 75 90 / 20 30 10 70 SGJ 75 91 77 88 / 30 20 10 70 GNV 74 93 74 91 / 20 50 20 30 OCF 75 93 75 92 / 20 60 20 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.