textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today

- Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters Today

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA Wed &Thu Mornings

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

- Potential for Locally Heavy Rain SE GA Friday & Saturday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The cold front will move southeast of the area this evening, taking rain with it. High pressure will build from the northwest overnight. Weak troughing over the coastal waters, will help hold cloud cover in place. Temperatures will drop behind the front overnight, with lows ranging from the middle 30s over inland SE GA to the lower 50s over coastal NE FL. Winds will drop enough for frost to develop over inland SE GA.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A dry and cold air mass will move into the region as high pressure builds in from the north behind yesterday's cold front passage. Light northwest flow will continue to usher in cooler air into the area, with temperatures expected to trend nearly 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday in some locations. Daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s along far interior SE GA locations, while highs in the 60s along inland SE GA locations and most of NE FL, with the southern portions of north central FL counties in the lower 70s. The cooler air being brought into the area will bring overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s across SE GA, while lower to upper 40s along NE FL and coastal locations. With near calm winds expected during the overnight hours, some patchy frost could develop along SE GA locations.

By Thursday an area of low pressure near the Gulf coast will cause for a warm front to begin to lift across FL. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than Wednesday. Daytime highs will mainly be in the 60s along SE GA towards the I-10 corridor in NE FL, cooler temperatures along SE GA locations. While daytime highs for locations south of the I-10 corridor will be in the lower 70s, warmer temperatures along north central FL. Dry conditions will persist through most of the day, with some light rain or sprinkles for the far interior locations of SE GA during the afternoon hours and into the overnight hours into Friday morning as chances of precipitation increase.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Another cold front is expected to pass into the area during the end of the week and then pushing south of the local area by late Saturday night/Sunday morning as its associated area of low pressure over the Gulf coast lifts northeastward and then south. Scattered to numerous chances of showers and thunderstorms look to develop beginning Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Chances begin to lessen by Saturday night, but still expect scattered chances through Sunday. With southwesterly flow over the area prior to the front's passage Saturday, moisture brought in from the Gulf will likely allow for some periods of high rainfall amounts, some guidance suggesting 2" to 4" primarily for locations across SE GA. WPC currently has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over SE GA on Friday, with the Marginal Risk shifting southward to encompass most of SE GA and NE FL on Saturday as the cold front pushes across our area.

Cold conditions continue during the start of the upcoming week as guidance suggests the arrival of another, albeit drier, frontal boundary.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

The 00Z TAF period will feature ceilings quickly lowering to low end MVFR levels 1.0-1.5 kft, continuing overnight, with IFR level tempo restrictions in stratus late tonight after 08Z at times through 13Z. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR after 14Z Wednesday during the morning hours, and continue through the afternoon with light northwest winds.

MARINE

The cold front will move southeast of the area Tonight. Troughing will linger over coastal waters into Wednesday, as high pressure builds to the northwest. The high will build to the north Thursday. An area of low pressure will move northeast out of the Gulf Friday, with the frontal system associated with this low lingering over the region through the weekend.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Wednesday NE FL Moderate Wednesday

FIRE WEATHER

LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY...

Showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue through the rest of this afternoon, beginning to dwindle by the evening hours as the cold front moves through the area. High pressure builds over the area after the front's passage, allowing for cooler and dry conditions to develop once again through midweek. Light northwest winds become established after the front's passage, with Poor to Fair dispersions developing on Wednesday, becoming Poor by Thursday. The next round of showers and storms expected Thursday evening into the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the week, bringing another cold front to push across the area during the upcoming weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Significant fog is not expected tonight. Patchy frost possible Tonight and Wednesday Night for locations in southeast Georgia. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 38 58 35 61 / 0 0 0 20 SSI 45 62 45 64 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 45 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 53 68 49 70 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 48 68 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 52 69 44 73 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472- 474.