textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents Through Monday. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions Develop through Monday.

- Isolated Tstorms Along the I-95 Corridor This Evening

- Patchy Fog across Inland North central FL Early Monday

- Small Craft Advisory In Effect Monday through Tuesday Night. Frequent Gale Force Wind Gusts Develop Wednesday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Isolated Thunderstorms This Afternoon, Especially Along the I-95 Corridor

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the Local Beaches Today

- Near Record High Temperatures Inland

- Patchy Possible for Inland North-central FL Early Monday

Weakening surface ridging continuing to nudge further eastward today ahead of an approaching front, which has induced a very warm southwesterly flow across much of the area, with the exception of closer to the maritime influence by the coast. With both the approaching front and southwesterly Gulf sea breeze progressing inland this afternoon combined with higher low level moisture, scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon. Primary areas to watch for development through this evening will be inland southeast GA closer to the progressing front, and towards the east coast and I-95 corridor where the Gulf sea breeze collides with the nearly pinned east coast breeze. With some lingering drier air aloft, not expecting significant vertical development with convection today, though any thunderstorm that does form will have a slight potential for a gusty downburst around 40-50 mph thanks to some of this dry air entrainment. Elsewhere, showers will be mostly isolated to widely scattered where forcing/lift is not as enhanced. Many locations are already seeing temp readings in the 80s, with some readings around 90 quite possible by late this afternoon and early this evening.

Tonight, the cold front progresses through the region, persisting a few isolated showers from northwest to southeast overnight as it drops just south of the area by Monday Morning. Winds will also shift towards the northwest to north overnight as high pressure builds in from the north, though not expecting a significant increase in winds until during the day Monday. Some patchy fog will also be possible towards southern portions of the area early Monday Morning where the highest surface moisture lingers. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to near 60 over southeast GA to the low to mid 60s over northeast FL.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler with breezy to windy onshore flow Monday and Tuesday

- High risk of rip currents and high surf for the Atlantic Coast

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

The cold front will be south of the area by Monday morning, then stalling over central Florida as another front slowly approaches from the north on Tuesday. Enough moisture will remain over the area on Monday and Tuesday to prompt scattered to numerous showers mainly over northeast Florida both days. Instability will be low due to enhanced cloud cover and will limit thunderstorm activity, but cannot rule out isolated storms over the NE FL coastal waters, possibly reaching St. Johns/Flagler counties with some heavy downpours as well. Following the frontal passage, the local pressure gradient will increase as high pressure sits to our northeast, bringing breezy/windy onshore flow through this period. Wind gusts Monday will likely stay below below Wind Advisory criteria in the 30- 40 mph range, but some model guidance suggests potential for Wind Advisory conditions by Tuesday into Tuesday Night along the NE FL Coast and St. Johns River Basin for sustained NE winds of 25-30 mph and peak wind gusts of 40-45 mph and these may need to be posted. After a hot weekend, temperatures will cool down Monday and Tuesday, highs generally in the 70s. A high risk of rip currents will continue along the entire Atlantic Coast, along with building surf, likely requiring a high surf Advisory by Tuesday with breakers of 6 to 8 feet. Elevated water levels are expected at times of high tide, but are expected to remain below minor flood levels at this time.

Rainfall amounts will generally be on the light to moderate side this period, with totals less than 0.25" across SE GA, around 0.50" across inland NE FL and 1-2" along the NE FL Coastal Counties south of JAX along the I-95 corridor, with locally higher amounts possible in St. Johns and Flagler counties. Most of this will be beneficial rainfall to help the current Extreme drought situation, but some brief localized flooding will be possible in urban areas and if it occurs during times of high tide along the Atlantic Coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday, with elevated winds along the coast and inland to the St. Johns River Basin

- Mostly Beneficial rainfall potential for coastal Northeast FL

Strong onshore winds continue through the end of the week, with gusts Wednesday and Thursday along the Atlantic coast likely into Wind Advisory criteria (up to 40-50 mph). Several days of gusty northeasterly winds will create beach and marine hazards, including high surf up to 8-12 feet, moderate beach erosion and potential minor coastal flooding at times of high tide. Conditions to improve next weekend as the pressure gradient weakens. Rain and isolated storm chances each day will primarily be over coastal northeast Florida with locally heavy rainfall possible, but overall will be mostly beneficial due to the current drought. Temperatures will be below normal Wednesday and Thursday with mostly cloudy skies, and will warm up to near normal by Friday and back to above normal levels into the upcoming weekend.

Rainfall amounts this period still generally 0.25" or less across SE GA, 0.50"-1.00" inland NE FL and 1-3" for coastal NE FL counties with locally heavier amounts along the I-95/US-17 corridors, mainly to the south of JAX. Still mainly of the beneficial nature, but as rainfall totals add up for St. Johns/Flagler counties, some brief periods of localized/urban flooding is possible, especially during times of high tide along the Atlantic Coast.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Showers and storms are moving out of the Duval TAF sites now, with VFR conditions filling in afterwards through the night. Gusty winds will begin to calm after sunset, and pick up after sunrise tomorrow. By mid-morning to early afternoon, MVFR ceilings and rain chances return for all six TAF sites.

MARINE

Onshore winds return Monday and persist throughout the week behind a cold front, strengthening to Small Craft Advisory across the area Monday and possibly reaching Gale Warning criteria by Tuesday/Wednesday. Periods of showers and rough seas will also accompany the returning onshore flow throughout the week. Conditions will begin to improve this weekend.

Rip Currents:

Breezy south to southeast winds at the coast, combined with surf around 3 to 5 feet will persist a high risk of rip currents through today. Fast-moving longshore currents are also expected. Throughout the week ahead, surf zone will become hazardous with a High Risk of strong rip currents each day from Monday through Friday and high, rough surf developing by Tuesday. Given the battering surf, minor beach erosion is possible after days of rough surf later this week.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Today And Tuesday - Critically Low Min Rh And Breezy Inland Se Georgia Tuesday

A frontal boundary will approach the area this afternoon and move through tonight, which will bring more of a southwest flow except near the coast and the return of shower & t'storm chances, mainly over inland GA and near the I-95 corridor to the coast where the best convergence is expected. Areas of high dispersions will be likely across inland southeast GA ahead of the front where the strongest low/mid level winds are expected. Much stronger high pressure builds in from the north for Monday and remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy to windy onshore flow and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers the closer to the coast. Critically low minRH values and breezy winds are forecast Tuesday for portions of inland southeast Georgia, and a potential exists for red flag conditions, depending on how much rainfall occurs with the frontal passage tonight. Moisture levels will return above critical levels the remainder of the week, but breezy Easterly flow will continue through Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog potential Monday morning for north central Florida. Otherwise fog potential remains low through most of the upcoming week due to the increased winds.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Sunday 4/5:

KJAX: 91/2017 KCRG: 91/2017 KGNV: 91/2025 KAMG: 90/2023

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 58 73 52 77 / 30 0 10 0 SSI 61 69 59 72 / 40 30 30 20 JAX 62 72 57 72 / 30 50 50 30 SGJ 64 74 61 73 / 30 60 70 60 GNV 62 77 57 73 / 10 50 60 40 OCF 62 81 58 73 / 10 50 70 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-452-470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ454-474.