textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Inland Dense Fog this morning. Visibilities Less Than 1/4 Mile at Times

- Strong Cold Front Passage Late Thursday. Small Craft Advisory Conditions. Patchy frost possible inland SE GA Sunday Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Areas of dense fog possible this morning

This morning...Mostly clear skies and cooling boundary layer with near calm surface winds will support another round of dense fog towards sunrise. Best chances for dense fog will be across inland NE FL from the St. Johns River basin westward across inland NE FL along the US301/I-75/I-10 corridors, with some lower dense fog potential north of the FL/GA border across inland SE GA south of a line from Homerville to Waycross to Brunswick. Dense fog advisories may be required in the 4am-9am time frame. Low temps will cool into the 40s across inland SE GA and the I-10 corridor west of JAX, with 50s expected elsewhere.

This afternoon...Slow increase in high clouds, but overall partly to mostly sunny with above normal temps around 80F inland and 70s for the Atlantic beaches. West to Southwest surface winds 5-10 mph with a weak East Coast sea breeze pushing inland to I-95 late in the day.

Tonight...Mid and high clouds continue to increase slowly through the night in the SW flow aloft ahead of the next weather system and expect partly to mostly cloudy skies towards morning. This will decrease dense fog potential for late tonight/Wednesday sunrise with only patchy/areas of fog with 1-5 mile vsbys expected. Not as cool with lows around 50F expected inland SE GA and middle 50s for the I- 10 corridor west of JAX, then upper 50s/lower 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Wednesday through Thursday

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Westerly Winds Thursday

High pressure weakens over the SE US as a cold front moves through the Plains and into the SE US by Thursday. Flow shifts to WSW ahead of the front ushering in some moisture and increasing PWATs to the 1- 1.5 inch range. A mid-upper shortwave trough moves through the region Wednesday afternoon into evening triggering a few showers mainly along the I-10 corridor. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail as highs continue to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with mild lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Breezy westerly winds develop on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Drier air builds back in ahead of the front lowering PWATs to below an inch allowing for a dry frontal passage. Around seasonable highs in the 70s on Thursday quickly drop Thursday night as the front shifts south into central FL. Cold and breezy NW winds develop in the wake of the front with lows Friday morning in the 40s across SE GA and Suwannee Valley to the low-mid 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Friday through Monday

Main Highlights This Period:

- Much cooler & drier Friday through Sunday - Inland Frost Potential Southeast GA/Suwannee Valley Sunday Morning

Breezy and cold northwest winds continue Friday in the wake of the front draped across central FL. Friday highs will only top out in the 60s. On Friday night, another dry cold front slides offshore of the southeast Atlantic coast reinforcing the cold airmass and keeping winds elevated. This will lead to wind chills dropping into the 30s Saturday morning for much of the area. Winds begin to relax Saturday into Sunday as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest with dry weather and below average highs in the 60s for most with possibly some upper 50s for locations northwest of Waycross. Saturday will likely be the coolest day of the year since mid-March last spring. With calm winds and mostly clear skies, overnight lows fall into the mid/upper 30s for inland locations north of Interstate 10 Sunday morning, with 40s elsewhere. Sunday morning could be the first inland frost of the season for much of inland southeast GA and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures gradually warm into early next week as high pressure builds south into the Great Lakes region and flow shifts to ESE.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Another round of low clouds and stratus can be expected this morning, mainly in the 08Z-13Z time frame at all sites. Using ensemble and NBM guidance, highest chances of IFR/LIFR conds still looks to be for GNV, VQQ, CRG, and JAX from 09z to 12z, but rest of the TAF sites still have a chance of at least MVFR conds. Would expect improvement to VFR by about 14-15Z time frame with light and variable winds the rest of the TAF period. Some increase in high clouds late in the TAF period, but overall remaining VFR.

MARINE

High pressure will weaken over the southeastern states Today, allowing seas to continue to subside. Strong cold frontal passage expected on Thursday and will lead to strengthening offshore flow on Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions appear likely to begin Thursday afternoon and will continue on Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents:

Light winds and decreasing swells will lead to mainly Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches Today and Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Daytime Dispersions Possible Thursday And Friday

Dry conditions and light westerly winds persist through midweek, with Poor to Fair daytime dispersions. The dry airmass will continue to bring min RHs down to the upper 20s to 30s for southeast Georgia. The arrival of a cold front on Thursday will bring breezy conditions across a good portion of the area, which will allow for very good to high dispersions to develop. Behind the front, a colder, drier airmass will begin to build into the area, with temperatures likely dipping down to the mid to upper 30s across southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley Region Friday and Saturday Night.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog possible early this morning, mainly over northeast FL. Patchy Frost possible this weekend over inland SE GA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 80 50 76 54 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 76 57 77 58 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 81 55 79 56 / 10 10 20 0 SGJ 79 61 78 60 / 10 10 20 0 GNV 82 59 80 57 / 10 10 20 0 OCF 82 61 81 59 / 10 10 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.