textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight and Early Friday Morning

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches through Friday. High Risk Expected on Saturday as Onshore Winds Briefly Strengthen

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Night

- Small Craft Advisories Possible Saturday through Monday Night

- Widespread Inland Freezes likely Monday Night through Wednesday Night

- Severe Drought Conditions Expanding Across our Region

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Weak high pressure ridge remains over the area through tonight with a weak inverted trough off the southeast U.S. coast. Most of the mid to high clouds have moved out and partly to mostly sunny skies rest of the day. Mostly clear to partly cloudy initially for tonight with west to southwest flow aloft continuing to bring in moisture. There may be a fairly rapid onset of low clouds after about 2 AM with these clouds lowering and radiation fog forming. We have indicated patchy to areas of dense fog forming after about 3 AM given the light to calm winds and the weak winds just above the surface. Lows tonight continue to moderate with lows in the 40s over southeast GA to upper 40s and lower 50s for northeast FL. Does not look like any isolated showers will be notable for our area associated with the inverted trough offshore, but a couple of showers could sneak into the offshore waters.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Cold front will nudge a bit further south during the day on Saturday as arctic high pressure moving toward well to the north and east settles a strong ridge down most of the eastern seaboard. Exact conditions on Saturday and Saturday Night will vary a bit depending on the southward extent of this cold air "surge", though it is not expected to make it all the way through the area as the front stalls just to our south as flow aloft remains mainly zonal. Most of the energized dynamics will remain to our north and west, and therefore only expecting around a 15-25% chance of a few showers Saturday mainly north of the I-10 corridor and towards the coast thanks to the developing northeasterly flow. A strong temperature gradient will be likely over the area as well, with temps as low as the mid 50s to low 60s will be expected north of about the I-10 corridor, and as high as the 70s to near 80 the further south of I- 10 you get.

By Saturday Night, two areas of low pressure are expected to form, over the northwestern Gulf and south of the Carolinas, both lifting northeastward through Sunday and Sunday Night. This will cause the aforementioned front to lift back northward as a warm front, and setting the stage for a very mild day in the warm sector on Sunday. Guidance continues to hold firm with respect to a continuous decrease in any frozen precip chances, which are now near zero for interior GA. Instead, Saturday Night and at least the start of Sunday will remain dry as the main energy from the winter storm will keep precip chances north and west of our region. A few showers will be possible across the region Saturday Night and Sunday Morning as the warm front lifts northward, though not expecting a washout by any means.

The main impacts we will have from this large and complex system will be a trailing cold front that will sweep through the area from northwest to southeast Sunday Night as both the surface lows and upper level energy lifts off to the north and east. There will be enough moisture in place in the warm southerly flow Sunday for periods of showers out ahead of the front beginning Sunday Afternoon over interior GA, continuing to trek south and east throughout Sunday Night before wrapping up Sunday Morning. Instability looks to be rather limited with the front once again, and therefore thunderstorm potential, especially strong/severe potential, is very low. However, best chances for an isolated thunderstorm look to be over interior GA during the evening hours Sunday, as the loss of daytime heating will mostly curtail these chances further south and east through the night.

Both rain chances and coverage of precip drop off throughout Sunday Night as the activity moves towards and across northeast FL, with a breezy and drier northwest flow amping up cold air advection from northwest to southeast throughout the night. Therefore, after very mild and near record breaking high temps in the mid 70s to mid 80s Sunday, lows Sunday Night will bottom out in the 30s and 40s north and west and 50s south and east.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A few showers may linger for the first half of Monday for areas further south and east, with otherwise decreasing clouds from northwest to southeast and a breezy and cool airmass settling in with high pressure building from the northwest. High pressure then looks to weaken a bit by Tuesday, though generally meander near just to the northwest of the region through at least Wednesday and likely into next Thursday as well. This will maintain a weak but cool northwesterly flow across the region for the long term, with below normal temps and frost/freeze chances inland each night Monday Night through Wednesday Night. Light freeze will even be possible to some or all of the coasts Monday Night, with a hard freeze likely inland.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR will continue rest of today with a diminishing trend of mid to high clouds into tonight. Increased chance of low clouds and vsby restrictions developing over the forecast area 06z-14z, with the NBM showing 20-40 percent chances of MVFR and IFR, but note that HREF guidance shows similar chances for LIFR increasing after 06z for a few of the TAFs. VFR clouds look more probable developing by the 16z- 18z time frame Friday after the fog and stratus dissipate. Prevailing winds today northeast to east around 5-10 kt and will diminish tonight. Generally light northeast flow on Friday.

MARINE

High pressure positioned over coastal Georgia will weaken today as a a frontal boundary slowly pushes towards the southeastern states. Meanwhile, coastal troughing situated offshore will keep breezy northerly winds in place through this afternoon, followed by decreasing speeds tonight and Friday. Arctic high pressure will build northwest of the area on Friday and push the frontal boundary southward, crossing our local waters on Friday night. Northeast winds will briefly surge in the wake of this frontal passage on Saturday with a small craft advisory possible north waters. Meanwhile, a winter storm developing over Texas and the lower Mississippi Valleys on Saturday and Saturday night will shift northeast, lifting a warm front northward across our local waters on Saturday night. Winds will shift to south and then southwest on Sunday ahead of another cold front, which could be accompanied by a few thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon and night. Another Arctic high pressure center will then build into the southeast states in the wake of this cold frontal passage early next week, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected as breezy northwest winds shift to north while strengthening further on Monday night.

Rip Currents: Southeast GA and Northeast FL Beaches - Moderate through Friday, High on Saturday

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Dispersions Today And Friday

Weak high pressure ridging remains across the area through Friday, which will persist generally light surface and transport winds, and therefore poor to fair dispersions and areas of low dispersions despite elevated mixing heights. A frontal boundary will move south through the area Friday night, then lifting back north as a warm front Saturday night. Showers move into southeast Georgia beginning Saturday and spread into northeast Florida on Sunday. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible Sunday into Sunday night, especially over inland GA. Showers continue Sunday into Monday as the cold front makes it way through the area. Breezy southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front will likely result areas high dispersions on Sunday, followed by areas of high dispersions again Monday with a breezy northwest flow behind the front. Much cooler and drier airmass moves back in for early next week, and sticks around through mid week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog are likely inland tonight and early Friday Morning, locally dense. Frost/freeze potential returns early next week.

CLIMATE

Near Record Highs Sunday, January 25th...

Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred.

Record High Temperatures:

January 25th: KJAX: 83/2023 KGNV: 85/1950 KCRG: 81/2023

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 46 74 45 56 / 0 10 10 30 SSI 50 68 50 58 / 0 0 10 30 JAX 49 76 52 64 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 54 74 55 69 / 0 0 10 20 GNV 51 80 54 73 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 52 80 55 78 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.