textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Through the Weekend. Isolated Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding

- High Risk of Rip Currents At Northeast FL Beaches Today. Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Through the Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Isolated strong to severe storms possible this afternoon into evening - High Risk of Rip Currents Today NE FL beaches, Moderate risk for southeast GA beaches Today

An area of high pressure will remain to the northeast through Tonight, with an inverted trough over the local area. Onshore flow will prevail Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will contunue to develop this afternoon. The potential exists for a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Precipitation will end this evening inland, but the inverted trough will keep chances in the forecast near the coast through the night.

With the onshore flow, highs will range from the mid 80s at the coast, the lower 90s further inland. Lows in the middle 70s will be common Tonight, except upper 70s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with localized flood potential each afternoon and evening - High Risk for Rip Currents over Northeast Florida Beaches this weekend

High pressure will be centered to the northeast through Sunday, then more toward the east Sunday night. The best chance for convection will be during the afternoons, driven by diurnal instability and sea breeze boundaries. Weak inverted troughs will develop in the onshore flow helping to increase convective chances.

There will be a greater daytime gradient of temperatures from east to west on Saturday due to stronger onshore flow. Temperatures will be a little below average near the coast Saturday, otherwise readings will be near average this period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Afternoon Thunderstorms - Heat Advisory Potential Returns Next Week

High pressure will be centered to the east early next week, with ridge extending across area. Subsidence under this ridge will be a limiting factor for diurnal convection.

The ridge will sink to the south mid week, as a trough moves into the southeastern US. The region will then be between high pressure to the southeast, and this stalled front to the north through the end of the week.

In general, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected this week.

A prevailing southwest flow will result in above average temperatures this week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this afternoon. These storms may become strong with gusty and erratic winds, along with visibility restrictions in heavy rainfall. Inland sites should have a dry night Tonight, while showers linger at coastal sites. Thunderstorms will become numerous Saturday afternoon across the local area.

MARINE

High pressure ridge extending from over Bermuda westward to the southeast states will continue through the weekend. A trough of low pressure will move into the area today, which will increase east to southeast winds and build seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for parts of the Florida waters. In addition, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected at times over the area waters today through Saturday. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong. The high pressure ridge will build back over the area waters early next week resulting in a weaker wind flow.

Rip Currents: Winds are becoming more easterly and seas at area buoys have risen slightly compared to yesterday to about 2 ft. An increase in wind waves and breezier onshore flow will put the risk solidly in moderate to high today. By Saturday, we will likely be moderate to high risk based on current forecasts. Maybe a touch lower risk on Sunday, but still close to the moderate to high category. In any event, swimming conditions will deteriorate today through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy high afternoon dispersions beginning Tuesday

High pressure ridging will be over the area through early next week. An inverted trough will be over region Today. The high will be centered more toward the southeast the second half of next week, as a cold front moves into the southeastern US and stalls.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive locally heavy rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 88 73 92 / 20 80 30 50 SSI 77 88 78 90 / 80 80 20 40 JAX 74 89 74 92 / 40 60 10 70 SGJ 76 88 75 90 / 50 60 20 30 GNV 73 89 73 92 / 20 70 40 60 OCF 74 90 74 92 / 30 60 40 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.