textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy Fog Possible Early on Tuesday Morning

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Wednesday & Thursday Mornings

- Small Craft Advisory Continues through This Evening

- Near Record High Temperatures on Friday and Saturday

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of the Region

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strengthening low pressure (1000 millibars) accelerating northeastward and away from the Mid-Atlantic coast, with its associated cold front pushing east- southeastward across the south FL and the Keys. Meanwhile, strengthening high pressure (1022 millibars) stretches from the southern Appalachians through the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. Aloft...progressive troughing has moved offshore of the U.S. eastern seaboard, with deep northwesterly flow in its wake across our area. Otherwise, ridging building over Mexico was expanding its axis eastward across the southwestern Gulf (Bay of Campeche). Drier northwesterly flow has eroded a low stratus cloud deck across southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley , while stratus persist for locations south of the Interstate 10 corridor in northeast and north central FL. Temperatures at 18Z ranged from the mid and upper 50s beneath the stratus cloud deck over northeast FL to the low and mid 60s where generally fair skies prevail elsewhere. Dewpoints ranged from the mid 40s for locations north of Waycross to the low and mid 50s elsewhere.

High pressure will continue to build southeastward from the southern Appalachians tonight, arriving over the coastal Carolina region towards the predawn hours on Tuesday. Low level winds that have veered to northeasterly this afternoon will advect a deck of marine stratus and lower stratocumulus cloud cover onshore along the northeast FL coast and across north central FL through around sunset. A tight local pressure gradient will keep breezy northeasterly winds in place along the I-95 corridor through late afternoon, while clearing skies west of I-95 allows temperatures to climb to the mid or upper 60s later this afternoon, while coastal locations remain in the 50s.

The drier air mass over inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley will then finally overspread the rest of our area this evening, allowing for clearing skies shortly after sunset. A light northerly breeze should prevail at coastal locations, with winds at inland locations decoupling overnight. Radiational cooling will drop low temperatures to the upper 30s and lower 40s for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where patchy fog may develop during the predawn and early morning hours. Lows elsewhere will fall to the mid to upper 40s, except around 50 for coastal northeast FL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Initially dry weather will be in place on Tuesday with chances for light showers increasing slightly on Wednesday, with most likely areas for rainfall occurring over inland southeast Georgia and into the Suwannee Valley region, as high pressure moves eastward into the Atlantic and prevailing flow shifts to become more out of out of the southwest and out of the gulf with breezy diurnal winds building by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will warm through midweek with daily high temps rising into the 70s and lower 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High pressure ridging will shift further southward as daily bouts of scattered showers continues through the end of the week, with convection becoming more widespread by Friday and over the weekend, ahead of frontal boundary pressing in from out of the north. Models currently show some disparity on the timing of the frontal passage, however the advection of cold dry air is expected to occur sometime between the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week. Above average temperatures will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend, ahead of the cold front passage.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

IFR ceilings around 500 feet at SGJ will likely prevail through at least 23Z this evening. IFR ceilings at CRG should lift to MVFR towards 20Z. MVFR ceilings should otherwise prevail at GNV through around 00Z/01Z this evening. MVFR ceilings at JAX and VQQ will likely lift to VFR around or shortly after 19Z, but periods of MVFR ceilings will remain possible through around 23Z. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail at SSI and are expected to prevail at the northeast FL terminals by 02Z tonight. Low stratus ceilings and fog are expected to develop after 04Z at VQQ, with periods of IFR conditions likely during the overnight hours. VFR conditions should then prevail at the regional terminals by 13Z on Tuesday. Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 10-15 knots through around 22Z, with speeds then diminishing to around 5 knots or less at the inland terminals by 02Z, while speeds remain sustained at 5-10 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals overnight. Surface winds will then shift to east-northeasterly by 15Z Tuesday, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots at the regional terminals.

MARINE

Strengthening high pressure over the southern Appalachians will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard through this evening before this feature settles over the coastal Carolina region tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through early this evening for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL, while these conditions continue offshore into the late evening hours. Caution conditions this afternoon for the near shore waters adjacent to southeast GA should diminish this evening as onshore winds subside. High pressure will then shift southeastward and offshore by Tuesday afternoon, allowing for diminishing onshore winds and seas beginning later tonight. Southerly winds will then develop by midweek while gradually strengthening as this Atlantic high pressure center extends its axis westward across the FL peninsula. Winds will become southwesterly later this week, with a few showers possible, mainly across the GA waters.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk continues at the northeast FL beaches during the next several days, as breakers of 2-4 ft persist due to breezy onshore winds this afternoon that will diminish beginning on Tuesday, with a long period northeasterly swell then arriving on Wednesday and continuing through at least Saturday. A moderate risk today at the southeast GA beaches this afternoon may briefly diminish to low on Tuesday, but the arrival of the longer period swell will increase the risk back to moderate by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Wednesday And Thursday

Surface trough extending behind departing low pressure system will continue to sink southeastward across the area today with mostly cloudy skies gradually clearing this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the northwest filtering in some drier air to the area. Northerly winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph inland and 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph along the coast will turn northeast through in the afternoon hours. Dry conditions will prevail into midweek as the high shifts in from just north of the area Tuesday with light east winds turning southeasterly in the afternoon hours and weak transport winds keeping dispersions poor along the coast due to cooler temperatures near the coast limiting mixing heights. The high will move more east of the area Wednesday into Friday with south to southwest breezy winds in the afternoon and daily Gulf seabreeze developing and moving well inland during the afternoon hours while the Atlantic seabreeze remains just offshore. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog and low stratus development will return each morning starting Tuesday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures this week into next weekend.

February 19: KAMG: 82/2018

February 20: KJAX: 86/1961 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014 KCRG: 83/2014

February 21: KJAX: 86/2019 KCRG: 84/2019

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 39 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 47 64 52 72 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 44 72 52 80 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 50 70 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 46 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 47 78 53 81 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ452- 454. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ470- 472-474.