textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy to Areas of Frost Across Inland Southeast GA Early this Morning

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas

- Potential for Locally Heavy Rainfall Across Southeast GA Fri & Sat. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Area-Wide

- Light Freezes and Frost Possible on Tues & Wed Nights Next Week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Early morning patchy frost over southeast Georgia will clear with the sunrise followed by increasing chances for showers in the afternoon and evening hours initially building over southeast Georgia and spreading southeast into portions of northeast Florida as high pressure moves further off to the east and a moist southwesterly flow builds over the forecast area ahead of a stalled frontal boundary over Georgia. Mild prevailing surface winds are expected will become more northerly in the afternoon and then diminish by the evening and overnight hours. High temperatures for today will rise into the 50s and lower 60s over southeast Georgia and will range between the 60s up into the mid 70s for northeast Florida with warmer temps occurring further to the south over north central Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 40s over southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 50s over northeast Florida and in the upper 50s and lower 60s along the coastline.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Friday and Friday Night: Ongoing and prevailing southsouthwest flow ahead of the approaching surface low will promote warm-air and moisture advection inland. Showers will become more widespread on Friday, and limited elevated instability may support a few embedded thunderstorms. Convection is expected to persist into Friday night as the low and associated cold front move into northern Florida. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook highlights a Marginal Risk across inland southeast Georgia due to the potential for repeated rounds of heavy downpours. Temperatures will rise to above-seasonable levels on Friday, with highs ranging from the mid-60s to the low-80s.

Saturday and Saturday Night: The aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall over north-central Florida from Saturday into Saturday night. Increasing Gulf moisture will raise PWATs into the 1.61.8 inch range, which is above normal for this time of year. This moist environment, combined with the frontal boundary acting as a focus for ascent, will support numerous to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms, mainly from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. This system will bring beneficial rainfall to areas experiencing severe to extreme drought, with storm totals generally ranging from 1 to 4 inches. However, minor flooding may occur where repeated rounds of heavy rainfall develop over a short period. The axis of heaviest rain will likely set up across inland southeast Georgia, where locally higher amounts are possible. The WPC has expanded its Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall to include both southeast Georgia and northeast Florida in the Saturday outlook.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Sunday and Sunday Night: The axis of deepest moisture will shift southward, settling just south of the FloridaGeorgia line. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms will persist through the day. The stalled front will gradually push into central Florida by late afternoon, while a surface low tracks along the I-10 corridor in northeast Florida and moves offshore into the adjacent Atlantic by evening. In the wake of the cold front, a few isolated rain showers may linger into Sunday evening, diminishing significantly and ending altogether late Sunday night.

The 72 hour (3 day total) probability of exceeding 2 inches of total rainfall from Friday through Sunday from Live Oak FL to Baxley GA westward ranges from 50 to 90 percent.

The 72 hour probability of exceeding 3 inches total rainfall from Friday through Sunday from Homerville to Denton, GA westward ranges from 33 to 67 percent.

Monday through Wednesday: A drier and colder airmass will settle over the region as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will run below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid-60s and overnight lows ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s. Guidance also indicates the passage of another, drier reinforcing front on Monday, which will maintain cool and dry conditions with strong model agreement.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

VFR with a slow thickening of mid and high clouds for most of the 06Z TAF period,along with light North winds of 3-5 knots tonight and 6-9 knots after 18Z today. Have kept the brief MVFR fog in the TAF forecast for VQQ in the 08-12Z time frame this morning. There will be an increase of mid level clouds between 00z and 06z tonight with winds veering to a light easterly direction.

MARINE

High pressure will build over the southeastern states today with low pressure organizing along the northern Gulf coast tonight, with a warm front lifting northward across our local waters on Friday accompanied by an increasing coverage of showers. Weak low pressure will move northeastward across southeastern Georgia on Friday evening, with this storm system's cold front then crossing our local waters on Friday night and Saturday morning. A wave of low pressure will then develop along this front just south of the northeast Florida waters on Saturday night, keeping showers and a few embedded thunderstorms over our local waters through Sunday. Low pressure will then strengthen as it moves offshore on Sunday night and Monday, resulting in strengthening north northwesterly winds as rainfall ends.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Friday NE FL Moderate through Friday

FIRE WEATHER

Light surface northwest winds will result in poor dispersion today. Scattered showers will develop this afternoon and evening across southeast Georgia and the northern Suwannee Valley. Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected Friday through the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Mainly light showers are anticipated today and tonight along and north of the I-10 corridor, with coverage and intensity increasing late Friday into Saturday as showers and embedded thunderstorms become more widespread. Southsouthwesterly flow strengthens on Friday, supporting fair dispersions.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy frost is possible this morning across interior portions of southeast Georgia. Heavy rain will be possible Friday into the weekend across inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 45 60 48 57 / 70 90 70 80 SSI 52 70 53 63 / 50 60 60 60 JAX 51 78 55 68 / 30 40 40 50 SGJ 57 80 60 72 / 10 10 30 40 GNV 53 79 61 73 / 10 30 40 50 OCF 56 80 62 76 / 10 20 30 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.