textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hot & Humid Weather Continues. Heat Advisory in effect Today and expected again on Tuesday. Heat Indices up to 111 Possible. Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Watches will likely be needed for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches.

- Scattered Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Strong Storms, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Locally Heavy Downpours Possible. Best chance of storms is across inland areas from 4pm-10pm.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Tuesday.

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Wednesday and Wednesday Evening.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Heat Advisory Today for NE FL/most of SE GA, Heat Indices 107-111F.

- Lower rainfall chances, but isolated strong/severe storms possible.

Weak shortwave aloft will push southward through the region early this morning and will allow for slightly drier air mass to filter in aloft with PWATs falling into the 1.6-1.8 inch range by this afternoon. This feature will allow for some isolated showers and storms this morning, but overall expect mostly dry conditions with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny this afternoon and will allow for Max temps into the mid/upper 90s over inland areas, while East coast sea breeze developing and pushing inland to the I-95 corridor will hold Atlantic Coastal locations with highs in the lower to middle 90s. These temps combined with the humid air mass will push Heat Indices into the 107-111F range across all of NE FL and most of SE GA to the south/east of Waycross and have posted Heat Advisory from 11am-8pm, while areas across inland SE GA to the north/west of Waycross will peak out with Heat Indices around 105F. The slightly drier air mass aloft will lessen rainfall chances late this afternoon and evening, but still expect widely scattered storms across SE GA with Pops (20-40%), while lingering moisture across NE FL with still support scattered storms with PoPs (30-60%) as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland and will trigger convection, mainly late in the day from the 5pm-9pm time frame which should support Heat Advisory headlines due the late nature of convection. Strong to isolated severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph still possible in the activity as movement will be from the NW to SE at 15- 20 mph and some Hi-Res models are supporting a low chance of an MCS type feature across Central GA, pushing into SE GA during the evening hours which could provide the support for a more concentrated wind threat there due to the lingering extreme heating at the surface. Any evening convective threat from storms should end by midnight with the usual fair skies and humid conditions expected with lows in the 70s inland and near 80F along the Atlantic Coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Below average thunderstorm coverage Tuesday, and above average Wednesday.

- Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Watches will likely be needed for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Expected on Wednesday and Wednesday Evening.

A cold front will move south toward the area Tuesday, then into SE GA Tuesday night, where it will stall through Wednesday night.

Some drier air will move into area ahead of the boundary Tuesday, helping to limit convective potential.

Better moisture will return on Wednesday. The combination of better moisture, and convergence along surface boundary will yield above average chances for convection, especially across SE GA. With the front in the area, convection could extend into the overnight Wednesday night.

Highs on Tuesday, away from the immediate coast will approach 100, with heat advisories likely becoming necessary. Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Wednesday due to convective coverage, but still may need another heat advisory.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which may become strong to severe.

Frontal boundary will stalled across SE GA through Friday, then lift just north of the area on Saturday and Sunday. Due to ample moisture, and frontal convergence, above average precipitation chances are forecast throughout this period.

Temperatures will trend above normal through Friday, then near to a bit below over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 16Z. Showers developing near the terminals this morning could produce brief periods of MVFR conditions through around 16Z, with ceilings of 1,500 - 2,500 feet possible. Although showers and thunderstorms should begin to increase in coverage towards 17Z, confidence in impacts continues to decrease at SSI, JAX, and CRG, where PROB30 groups were not included for this TAF cycle. PROB30 groups for briefly gusty surface winds up to around 25 knots and MVFR conditions during heavier downpours at VQQ, GNV, and SGJ. Potential convection would favor the time period before 22Z at SGJ, with the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze then carrying activity inland towards the VQQ and GNV terminals after 22Z, with convection potentially lingering through around 02Z Tuesday. VFR conditions should then prevail after 04Z, with periods of MVFR visibilities possible overnight at VQQ. Confidence was too low to indicate prevailing MVFR conditions at VQQ overnight at this time.

Westerly surface winds sustained around 5 knots will shift to northwesterly at 5-10 knots by 15Z. The inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary will shift surface winds to east-northeasterly around 10 knots towards 17Z at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, where winds will veer to easterly by 22Z. The Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes will collide near the U.S. Highway 301 corridor towards 00Z, with surface winds shifting to southwesterly around 10 knots at GNV towards 21Z as the Gulf sea breeze boundary crosses the terminal. Surface winds will become southerly around 5 knots elsewhere later this evening as convection diminishes.

MARINE

A nearly stationary frontal boundary just north of the local waters will dissipate early this week. Another front will approach from the north during the middle of the week with offshore southwest winds increasing to near advisory levels from Wednesday through Friday. This will bring a return to a stormy weather pattern to the local waters late in the week and into next weekend.

Rip Currents: A low end moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Tuesday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA beaches due to an afternoon sea breeze and surf/breakers of 1-2 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

- Heat Indices in the advisory range for much of the area Today.

- Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Watches will likely be needed for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Patchy high daytime dispersions this week.

A frontal boundary will be located just to the north of the area early this week, then lay across southeast Georgia mid week. The boundary is expected to lift back to the north next weekend. The first half of this week will have temperatures running above normal. Daily chances for thunderstorms will increase through the week.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Heat Advisories or Excessive Heat Watches may be needed Tuesday through Wednesday afternoons. Daily thunderstorm chances this week, with greatest chances beginning mid week, with strong to severe storms possible. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near storms.

CLIMATE

Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites for early this week:

Tuesday, July 28:

KJAX: 104/1872 KGNV: 100/2025 KAMG: 100/2006 KCRG: 100/2025

Wednesday, July 29:

KJAX: 101/2025 KGNV: 100/2025 KAMG: 99/2025 KCRG: 101/2016

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 98 74 99 78 / 20 20 0 0 SSI 94 78 98 82 / 20 20 0 0 JAX 97 77 99 80 / 20 30 20 0 SGJ 93 76 97 79 / 30 20 30 0 GNV 96 76 96 79 / 40 30 40 0 OCF 95 76 95 79 / 60 30 50 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None.