textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Gusty Southwest Winds this Afternoon Increase the Wildfire Danger. Sustained Speeds of 15-20 mph with Frequent Gusts of 25-30 mph

- Moderate to Heavy Showers Late Tonight through Saturday. Few Strong Storms Possible Across Southeast GA on Friday. Rainfall Amounts of 0.5 2, with Locally Higher Totals Possible

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches

- Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds Expected Next Week. Increasing Marine Hazards Likely by Tuesday and Wednesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure ridging affecting the forecast area will very gradually shift further southward as a moist southwesterly flow building ahead of an approaching cold front, pressing in from out of the north, forms over the region bringing increased chances for light showers over southeast Georgia and northeast Florida, becoming more widespread overnight and into Friday morning. Above average temperatures throughout the forecast area through today and tonight with daily high temps reaching up into the mid to upper 70s and overnight min temps dropping down into the upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Shower and thunderstorm chances through Saturday, with a few strong storms possible.

Shower and t'storm chances pick up from north to south throughout the day Friday and into Friday Night as a frontal boundary slowly nudges south and eastward. The front moves slow enough by Friday Night that the feature almost stalls over northeast FL, which will help to maintain periods of showers and result in more beneficial rainfall for the region. As for during the day Friday, expecting interior GA to feature the most "washout" type of rainfall, with this same area also having the best chances for thunderstorms Friday Afternoon and Evening with the best diurnal heating. Any strong/severe chances are low at this time, though an isolated strong storm can't be ruled out with gusts around 40-50 mph looking like the main hazard. With the numerous showers/storms and the front clearing southeast GA during the day Friday, this will result in a modest temperature gradient Friday: Highs will rise into the upper 70s to low 80s in the warm sector from the I-10 corridor southward, with low to mid 70s over parts of inland GA and even some upper 60s possible over far interior GA.

The front will be located over southern counties of northeast FL on Saturday Morning, continuing to nudge southward throughout the day before dropping well south of the region Saturday Night. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms persist Saturday mainly south of about SR 20 in FL, though a few showers are possible through the afternoon hours as far north as about I-10 or areas just to the north of I-10 depending on the exact progression of the front. Weak drier high pressure builds in from the north Saturday Night which will result in more of an onshore northeasterly flow as compared to a northwest flow, as compared to a stronger northwest cold air advection that has been following frontal passages this winter. As a result, both high temps Saturday and low temps Saturday Night will be cool but still fairly close to normal values: Mid to upper 70s will be expected for highs Saturday except for some mid 60s to near 70 closer to the immediate coast. Upper 50s to low 50s are forecast Saturday Night inland and over southeast GA, and mid 50s near the St. Johns River Basin and NE FL coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Chances for coastal showers next week and a persistent onshore flow

Weak high pressure north of the region will be the main synoptic feature on Sunday before ridging gets reinforced on Monday as a dry front moves through the area. Onshore flow and coastal showers will be likely for at least the Sunday through Tuesday time frame as an inverted trough also develops east of the Florida Peninsula. Onshore flow looks to break down around mid next week however as the inverted trough weakens and dissipates and high pressure to the north shifts more northeast or east of the region. More onshore flow will keep coastal areas near or below climo for most of the long term, while inland areas will be near to above average overall.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will be in place through the majority of the forecast period. Afternoon S-SW winds with speeds of up to 10-15 knots with gusts of up to about 25 knots will diminish by this evening to below 10 knots with chances for showers gradually increasing over inland areas as convection develops ahead of an advancing frontal boundary. Winds will build to above 10 knots near the end of the forecast period, by around 14z-16z with potential IFR ceilings and vicinity showers affecting SSI before extending further south into the forecast area.

MARINE

High pressure centered offshore of the southeastern seaboard will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula today, maintaining breezy south-southwesterly winds today for the offshore waters. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary stretching across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will push into the southeastern states on Thursday night. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across our local waters from late Thursday night through Saturday as the front slowly moves across our area. Activity will then exit the northeast Florida waters on Saturday night as the frontal boundary shifts southward over the Florida peninsula. High pressure building over the southeastern states in the wake of this frontal passage will create a prevailing north-northeasterly wind flow this weekend. An extended period of breezy onshore winds are then expected next week as a series of strong high pressure centers migrate eastward across New England the offshore of the U.S. eastern seaboard, with these features wedging down the southeastern seaboard. Coastal troughing developing over our local waters early next week will generate rounds of scattered showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: A long period east-northeasterly ocean swell will persist today before fading overnight, keeping a moderate risk in place at all area beaches. A low risk is then expected on Friday and Saturday due to light winds and lower swell periods, with a moderate risk returning by Sunday and Monday due to gradually strengthening onshore winds that will continue through all of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Today - Areas Of Low Dispersions Over Southeast GA Friday - Areas Of Low Dispersions Area Wide Saturday

More moist southwesterly flow continues today and through Friday Morning ahead of an approaching front. This front will move through Friday Night and Saturday, bringing much needed rainfall to the area. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible as the front moves through, primarily Friday Afternoon through Friday Night north of about I-10 and Friday Night through Saturday Afternoon south of I- 10. Areas of high dispersions will be found area wide today and over northeast FL on Friday, which will quickly drop as weak ridging builds behind the front Friday Night and Saturday and shifts the flow more northeast to easterly. Onshore flow is likely to continue into early next week, with chances for showers closer to the coasts.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected over the next several mornings, though patchy fog is possible closer to the I-75 corridor Friday Morning. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for late Tonight through Saturday, and a few strong storms will be possible, with the greatest chance over SE GA on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 57 69 54 70 / 60 90 70 10 SSI 56 70 55 66 / 30 80 90 20 JAX 56 79 55 71 / 10 70 80 20 SGJ 56 80 57 70 / 10 50 90 40 GNV 55 81 56 76 / 10 50 80 40 OCF 54 82 58 77 / 0 40 80 70

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.