textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Each Day through the Weekend and Early Next Week. Primary concern will be heavy downpours resulting in localized flooding

- Strong thunderstorm risk will shift inland toward the I-75 corridor this weekend

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Heavy rainfall/localized flooding remains the main threat from thunderstorm activity today and tonight

Deep tropical moisture with PWATs over 2 inches will remain in place today in the SW steering flow to the south of stalled frontal boundary over the SE US states. This will lead to another day of mostly diurnal driven showers and storms with heavy rainfall remaining the main threat with localized flooding possible. This activity will interact with afternoon sea breeze fronts and a few strong storms with gusty winds of 40-50 mph are expected, but the overall severe storm threat remains on the low side. SW steering flow will start to push showers and storms from the NE Gulf into the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL by sunrise this morning and these will progress slowly E-NE through the rest of the morning hours before interacting with the East Coast sea breeze this afternoon and evening. The best chances for heavy rainfall/localized flooding will be along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL and across all of SE GA where the deepest tropical moisture will be, but urban areas of the I-95 corridor may be impacted as well.

Max temps will only top out in the upper 80s across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL due to the abundant cloud cover and earlier start to convection, while Max temps should push to around 90F and into the lower 90s along the I-95 corridor of coastal NE FL where a later start to convection is expected.

Showers and storm activity will slowly fade after sunset and shift into the Atlantic with partial clearing of skies after midnight with lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Patchy fog possible over inland areas early this morning and again late tonight, but significant dense fog is not expected.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: (Saturday through Sunday night)

- Strong to possibly severe storm chances in the afternoon and evening hours this weekend

Surface high pressure will be located to the north with a weakening frontal boundary over southern GA. A weak upper trough will be over region Saturday, then move off to the east Sunday. Above average convective chances are forecast this period due to ample moisture, diurnal heating, and added instability from upper trough.

The biggest difference between the two days this weekend is the flow is more onshore Sunday, helping to push the highest chances further inland.

Temperatures will be near seasonal averages this period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: (Monday through Thursday)

- A few strong to severe storms will be possible each afternoon

An upper high will be stacked on a broad ridge of high pressure at the surface this period.

Convection this period will be driven by diurnal heating, and convergence along the east coast sea breeze. With a prevailing onshore flow this period, the east coast sea breeze will push well inland each day. The best chance for convection each afternoon will be inland due to the timing of the sea breeze push inland.

Temperatures will trend a little above average this period.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Showers and isolated storms are moving towards GNV this morning, with a TEMPO in place for moderate showers. Showers and storms will likely begin once again after 18Z for the rest of the TAF sites with the sea breezes, PROB30/TEMPOs groups are in place. Convection fades once again after sunset, with VFR conditions returning by the end of the TAF period, with morning visibility restrictions likely again at VQQ pre-dawn.

MARINE

Offshore winds will prevail through tonight, then shift onshore over the weekend as high pressure builds to the north over the weekend, then to the northeast and into the western Atlantic early next week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon and evening as offshore winds continue. Decreasing chances for showers and storms over the weekend and into next week as onshore flow develops.

Rip Currents: A very low end Moderate Risk of rip currents is expected this afternoon after the sea breeze develops. Prevailing winds turn onshore this weekend, leading to a more solid Moderate risk and increase in surf/breakers to 2 to 3 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy Low Inland Dispersions Today and Saturday

High pressure will prevail to the east northeast Today, then more to the northeast for the rest of this period. This pattern change will result in the low level flow changing from coming from the southwest Today, to onshore this weekend through much of next week. Convective chances will be above average Today through the weekend, then more seasonal next week. As the flow becomes more onshore, the greatest chance for convection will shift inland after Today.

Fog Potential: Significant fog is unlikely during the next several days. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 88 71 87 72 / 80 50 80 30 SSI 87 74 87 77 / 70 60 60 40 JAX 91 73 89 73 / 70 50 60 40 SGJ 90 74 89 75 / 60 40 50 30 GNV 90 72 91 72 / 60 40 70 40 OCF 91 72 92 73 / 50 40 70 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.