textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches this Weekend. Moderate Risk at Southeast GA beaches

- Patchy Dense Fog Possible Sunday and Monday Mornings with Local visibility of 1/4 mile possible at times

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Today

- Elevated risk of rip currents Today

A cold front exiting to the southeast and surface high pressure building in slowly from the NW will continue modest north to NW winds 6-12 mph today. A weak seabreeze will turn winds NNE along the coast this afternoon while an inverted trough sinking south along the coast behind the departing front will turn winds more northeasterly late this afternoon and early evening by the mid afternoon hours. North to NW winds and Westerly flow in the mid to upper levels will support cooler air advection, which will limit our temperatures today compared to much of last week. Comparatively, temperatures are currently about 10 degrees cooler and dewpoints about 10 to 15 degrees lower than yesterday at this time and highs will maximize to near normal values in the mid to upper 70s with a few isolated spots near 80 degrees over north central FL. Cirrus clouds will stream eastward from the along the Gulf coast with increased coverage over SE GA yielding more partly cloudy to to briefly mostly cloudy this afternoon north of Waycross with less high clouds across NE FL and mostly sunny skies.

Tonight, light northeasterly winds will quickly become calm away from the coast with broken low stratus clouds shifting in from the GA coast WSW across US highway 341 from Brunswick to Jesup after midnight and then towards US-221 and areas west of Waycross late tonight. Mostly clear skies further south and calm winds will support some patchy fog, through less moisture will be available in the low levels for more widespread fog. Upper 40s expected for tonight over the Suwannee Valley with low 50s over NE FL areas east to US-17, with mid to upper 50s along I-95 and low 60s at the coast due to the NE onshore light winds 5-10 mph.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected.

- Elevated surf and high risk of rip currents this weekend.

We expect benign, fall-like conditions this period as a weak surface high pressure system remains across the southeast states, featuring mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and near seasonable temperatures. On Sunday, low level flow is northeasterly which favors cumulus clouds at times, but shifts to a drier northerly flow on Monday. May also see some increased high clouds at times as an upper level trough and low over the TX area send high level moisture to the east and into our area. Highs will run in the 70s, except around 80 degrees toward inland north central FL. Lows will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s most areas, but mid 50s to near 60 degrees near the coast. Some patchy shallow fog (probably dense fog in some locations) is possible Sunday morning and again Monday morning given light boundary layer winds and moist low levels. Main concerns are at the beaches where some occasional rough surf and moderate to high rip current risk exist.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy conditions to end the week and through the weekend.

- Chilly conditions develop next weekend.

The aforementioned upper trough over the lower U.S. will push east and open up/dampen as a north-stream trough digs across the eastern third of the CONUS during the middle to late period next week. The leading shortwave will drift across the northern Gulf and the local area on Wednesday - Thursday bringing some increased clouds and possibly some scattered precip. The more significant shortwave energy will drop into the eastern U.S. out of Canada on Wednesday- Wednesday night, providing for a sharpening mid to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS Thursday and Friday, with a 500 mb low developing Thursday night into Friday over the Ohio Valley. The guidance has been trending toward a better chance of some showers/rain for the Wed-Thu time frame due to weak sfc troughing and the upper trough so we will be increasing chances for Wednesday night into Thursday when the best chances are expected. For now, we will have chances at 20-40 percent...peaking on Thursday. Once the lead cold front pushes through later on Thursday, breezy post- frontal winds and dry conditions expected Thursday night and continues into Saturday. Highs on Thursday in the 70s, but strong cold air advection behind the front after Thursday evening may bring overnight lows down toward the upper 30s to 40 for portions of inland SE GA next weekend followed by highs capped in the 60s most locations Friday to Saturday. The temps on Friday to Saturday will be about 6-12 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

The 18Z TAF period will feature prevailing VFR conditions through early this evening with north to northwest winds shifting to north northeast this afternoon under scattered to broken high level cirrus clouds. WInds become more northeasterly along the immediate coast tonight as a trough moves down the coast with inland winds decoupling and becoming calm with patchy fog locally dense at VQQ and GNV with MVFR to LIFR VSBY/CLNGs. Fog will lift after 13Z.

High pressure will build to the north Sunday with increasing northeast winds around 10-12 at SSI/CRG/SGJ at the end of the period with 5-10 knots at inland sites Sunday into afternoon. High level broken cloud ceilings will lower slightly and increase in coverage downstream of an upper level disturbance to the west.

MARINE

A coastal trough will pivot southward across the waters through this evening as high pressure builds in slowly from the northwest. Winds from the north will shift north northeasterly this afternoon staying below exercise caution levels. Winds will lighten and become more northeasterly into early Sunday morning before high pressure building eastward in to the Carolinas elevates northeast winds to near caution levels Sunday afternoon. Seas will also remain elevated, but just below Caution levels for the offshore waters today through Monday. High pressure will then weaken over the southeastern states by Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside.

Rip Currents:

High risk of Rip Currents today and set through Sunday for northeast Florida beaches, with moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Min RH in the Upper 20s to lower 30s inland Southeast Georgia Monday Afternoon And Tuesday Afternoon

Conditions will trend drier through the weekend and into early next week with light to breezy northwesterly winds today gradually veering northeasterly through Sunday. Due to the lighter winds - both at the surface and the transport wind - poor dispersions are likely for the next several days. Though afternoon humidities will trend lower Monday and Tuesday, critical humidity is unlikely through the next week. After a brief rebound in temperatures and humidity through the middle of next week, another strong cold front will push through the area Friday bringing chilly conditions and breezy winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog possible Sunday and Monday mornings. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 51 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 72 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 55 77 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 77 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 53 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 54 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.