textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Storms This Afternoon and Evening and Potential for localized flooding mainly over northeast FL.

- Strengthening Northeasterly Winds tonight into Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory Tonight - Thursday.

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches through Friday. Rip current risk remains moderate to high this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with a few strong to severe storms possible

Showers and storms have begun to develop along the sea breeze this afternoon along the SE GA coast. Further development is expected as the afternoon progresses with the inland push of the sea breeze and it's interactions with the frontal boundary currently sitting over SE GA and shifts southward through the rest of the day. Potential hazards for any storms that develop Today will be wind gusts up from 40 to 60 mph, heavy rainfall, and localized flooding for any training of storms. By the evening hours, increased winds are expected along the coast as elevated northeasterly flow develops behind the frontal passage. Drier air will begin to settle over the area behind the front, allowing for less coverage of showers and storms entering midweek, with scattered chances of activity during the early morning hours on Wednesday along the boundary across north central FL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Onshore Winds at Coastal Locations Wednesday into Wednesday night

- Rough, Building Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents on Wednesday and likely into Thursday

A deep upper trough digging across the southeastern United States early Wednesday will drive a cold front well south of the forecast area while strong surface high pressure builds southeastward from the Mid-Atlantic states. In the wake of the front, a much cooler and drier continental air mass will overspread southeast Georgia and northeast Florida through midweek.

Wednesday will feature a notable departure from early June climatology. Lingering low-level moisture and frontal forcing may support a stray shower across north central FL during the early morning hours. Strong northeast winds will become the primary weather story, especially near the Atlantic coast where sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph are expected. Inland locations will also experience breezy conditions. Afternoon temperatures will struggle to recover, with highs only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and remaining near 80 degrees or slightly cooler along the beaches. These values are approximately 8 to 12 degrees below early June normals.

Wednesday night, skies become mostly clear as the dry air mass settles over the region. Breezy northeast winds will persist along the coast while gradually diminishing inland. Overnight lows will fall into the mid to upper 50s across inland southeast Georgia, lower 60s across interior northeast Florida, and upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast.

By Thursday, the center of surface high pressure will be positioned just north of the region, resulting in a weaker pressure gradient and lighter northeast to easterly flow. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected. Temperatures will moderate slightly but remain below seasonal normals, with afternoon highs generally in the lower to middle 80s.

Thursday night will feature partly cloudy skies with lows in the upper 50 to lower 60s inland and around 70 degrees near the coast. A few isolated coastal showers cannot be ruled out across northeast Florida as weak low-level convergence develops along the Atlantic breeze.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rough Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents Continue at Area Beaches Friday and possibly into the weekend.

- Gradual Warm-Up Forecast from Friday through the Weekend with Dry Weather Likely to Continue.

Friday through Monday, the large-scale pattern becomes increasingly dominated by expansive high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Carolinas. At mid levels, ridging remains established across the southeastern states while a weak mid-level low over the Bahamas drifts westward toward southern Florida and the Florida Straits. Guidance continues to indicate minimal influence from this feature across the local forecast area.

A prolonged stretch of below-normal precipitation chances is anticipated as easterly to southeasterly flow persists. Rain chances remain generally 10 to 20 percent Friday through Sunday. Most locations are expected to remain dry through the weekend.

Precip chances do increase slightly to 20 to 30 percent by Monday as moisture begins a gradual return with precipitable water values increasing between 1.5 to 1.75" and with a potential sea breeze merger between I-95 and I-75.

Temperatures will steadily moderate during the period. Highs Friday will reach the lower to middle 80s inland and lower 80s along the coast. By Saturday and Sunday, inland temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s, while coastal locations remain somewhat cooler in the middle to upper 80s due to persistent onshore flow. Overnight lows will remain pleasantly cool inland, generally in the 60s through Saturday night, while coastal communities hold near 70 degrees. By Monday, lows will rise into the lower to middle 70s area- wide as moisture slowly increases.

Marine influences will continue to produce elevated surf and a high risk of rip currents through at least Friday, with hazardous beach conditions potentially lingering into portions of the weekend depending on the persistence of the northeast swell.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Convection is expected to continue to develop this afternoon and continue through the evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Northeasterly winds develop as a front pushes through, with gusty conditions persisting through 18Z across the area.

MARINE

Elevated northeasterly winds develop behind the passage of a cold front Tonight, leading to Small Craft conditions to develop. High pressure builds in behind the front, bringing breezy onshore winds and elevated seas through Thursday. High pressure will gradually weaken over the southeastern states by week's end. Otherwise, additional rounds of thunderstorms are forecast through this evening with heavy rainfall and gusty winds expected at times.

Rip Currents: High Risk across area beaches through midweek as onshore flow persists.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas To Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Through Friday

AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL - Locations Tonight And Wednesday Night

A cold front will continue progressing southward through the region, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the region through this evening. A few storms may become strong to severe this afternoon and evening, producing gusty and erratic winds.

Elevated transport winds ahead of and behind the front will support areas of high daytime dispersion values, especially across inland locations.

By Wednesday, lingering showers may persist during the morning hours, primarily south of State Route 16, before a much drier and cooler air mass overspreads the region from north to south.

Strengthening northeast surface and transport winds behind the front will create breezy conditions area wide and support good to high daytime dispersion values. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to fall into the 30 to 35 percent range across inland southeast Georgia Wednesday afternoon, with values generally remaining above critical thresholds.

Surface and transport winds will gradually veer from northeast on Wednesday to east-northeast Thursday and easterly by Friday as high pressure builds north of the region and shifts offshore. Areas of high daytime dispersion values are expected across inland locations Thursday and Friday, with good dispersion values elsewhere. Despite the drier air mass, recent rainfall and gradually moderating humidity levels should limit significant fire weather concerns.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread fog development is not anticipated through the remainder of the week due to persistent boundary-layer mixing, drier air and elevated winds. Gusty and erratic winds will remain possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms through this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 80 56 83 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 72 79 71 82 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 70 81 66 84 / 30 0 0 0 SGJ 72 81 71 83 / 40 0 0 0 GNV 68 83 62 85 / 60 0 0 0 OCF 70 82 64 84 / 70 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday afternoon for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday afternoon for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ454-474.