textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Friday. Small Craft Conditions Return Sunday Night through Tuesday

- Frost, and potential Light Freeze, for Inland Southeast GA

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

UPDATE

Forecast on track this morning as cold frontal boundary will push through SE GA at the moment and through NE FL through the remainder of the morning hours. Only a brief light shower and/or sprinkle is expected. SW winds continue to gust to 25-30 mph ahead of the frontal boundary, then a brief gust to 30-35 mph from the W-NW along the frontal boundary. Clearing skies expected through the rest of the afternoon hours, following the cold frontal passage.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Tonight, showers will gradually weaken and move offshore ahead of an incoming front that will move through during the night. The fog forecast is a little difficult, there is ample moisture from recent rains and winds are currently conducive, but winds will pick up as the front pushes through the area. Patchy fog will be likely near the I-75 corridor over the next few hours.

The front is expected to be clear of the area by mid-morning, leaving much drier air and gusty northwesterly winds in it's wake. Cloud cover will gradually clear through the day, with above normal temperatures forecast for northeast Florida and southeast Georgia before a chilly night as high pressure builds overhead. Cold air advection and clear skies will continue after sunset allowing for good radiational cooling, lows will drop into the mid 30s for inland southeast Georgia, and upper 30s to 40s elsewhere. Winds should calm enough for patchy to areas of frost to develop over portions of inland southeast Georgia early Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Saturday through Sunday Night...

A modest short period of drying low level northwesterly flow will be in place Saturday morning before turning southwesterly by the afternoon as the next frontal feature approaches. This flow regime will promote warming despite the recent frontal passage and high temps to still reach typical readings for late December. Continued warming is expected through Sunday a robust area of high pressure pushes a backdoor cold front through the forecast area Sunday night.

While significant weather isn't expected this period, there may be shallow ground fog during the morning hours Saturday and Sunday as winds will trend calm and skies will be mostly clear. Additionally, an old frontal boundary may lift toward north-central FL amplifying the potential for locally dense fog Sunday morning.

Monday through Christmas Day

Breezy northeasterly conditions will begin to develop Monday, especially at the coast as strong high pressure wedges along the southeastern coast. Light showers and mostly cloudy skies are expected as a coastal troughing develops amid the onshore flow. Most of the shower activity should stay over the coastal waters but introduced "silent" shower chances 5-10% along the coast for now. While gradients do look fairly tight, it doesn't appear to be quite tight enough to have winds respond to Wind Advisory levels. Breezes will relax through Wednesday as high pressure settles across the southeastern US helping continue the warming trend through Christmas Day with highs forecasted in the mid and upper 70s (about 10 degrees above what's considered normal).

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings this morning with southwesterly winds that are beginning to increase just ahead of the incoming cold front. Winds will turn westerly then west-northwesterly with the frontal passage this morning with gusts up to 20-25 knots. Behind the front, dry air will scour out cloud cover leaving VFR conditions this afternoon.

Given last nights rainfall, cannot rule out a shallow ground fog late tonight as winds trend light and northerly. Probs are generally less than 15% of any fog-related flight restrictions overnight; VFR will be favored.

MARINE

Winds will shift to westerly by Friday morning as the cold front moves through the waters, turning northwesterly and then northerly Friday afternoon into Friday evening. High pressure will settle over the local waters during the weekend, allowing for winds and seas to diminish. A weakening cold frontal boundary will approach our region from the north on Monday as strong high pressure builds to the north and wedges down the southeastern seaboard as another coastal trough develops over our local waters. This feature may develop showers over our local waters early next week and Small Craft Advisory conditions beginning early Monday as northeasterly winds surge, with elevated seas likely persisting through Tuesday as onshore winds only gradually subside.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Saturday NE FL Moderate Saturday

FIRE WEATHER

LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY AREA-WIDE...

A passing cold front this morning will bring a day of drying and lower, but not critically low, afternoon humidity to the Suwannee Valley and inland areas of southeast GA (west of Highway 301) on Saturday. A northwesterly breeze will follow behind the frontal passage today with gusts up to 20 mph. After the drier afternoon Saturday, temperatures and humidity will trend upward through Christmas. There will be another "backdoor" front that will push through Monday with gusty northeasterly conditions along the coast.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog ahead of this morning's frontal passage and then another period of patchy or areas of morning fog Saturday and Sunday ahead of the next front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 64 33 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 69 41 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 73 38 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 75 47 69 52 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 73 39 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 75 41 73 48 / 10 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ470- 472-474.