textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Remains in Effect through Friday. Rip Currents Risk Remains Moderate to High This Weekend

- Small Craft Advisory Offshore waters today

- Drier This Week, Increased TStorm Chances Next Week

- Warming Trend Through The Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Onshore Winds Continue Today - High Risk for Rip Currents At Area Beaches

Dry and breezy conditions continue today, though with some moderation as the pressure gradient relaxes just a bit with low level high pressure shifting towards the Carolinas/eastern GA by Friday Morning. Overall expecting a pleasant day featuring more sunshine than cloud cover, as highs bump up just a bit into the low to mid 80s as onshore flow lightens. Still expecting a general 15- 20G25-30mph flow across much of northeast FL and the coasts and a general 10-15G20-25mph elsewhere this afternoon and evening. Primary concerns/hazards will be high rip current risk at all area beaches, as well as rough surf in the 4-6 foot range. Winds drop off further tonight as the aforementioned high moves closer to the region, with low temps overall a few degrees warmer than Thursday Morning, in the mid 50s to low 60s inland and mid 60s to low 70s closer to the coast and St. Johns River Basin.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rough Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents Friday, with high risk possible Saturday. - Mostly dry conditions

High pressure pressure ridge will be located just north of the area Friday producing prevailing easterly flow and slowly modifying air. Should see mostly sunny conditions, with only few cumulus and high clouds, with breezy easterly winds near 15G20-25 mph coastal, less inland areas, by the late morning or afternoon. Noted model soundings show PWAT Of less than 1 inch and east flow up to about 8 kft. The high pressure center will move off the east coast Friday night with mostly clear skies and possibly some patchy fog formation well inland, but should not be a big concern owing to the overall dry airmass.

Little overall change into Saturday though the high pressure ridging will be weaker as the center the deep layer high moves over the local coastal waters. PWATs remain below an inch per NAM Bufr soundings. The sfc ridge will still extend across eastern GA and SC resulting in low level easterly flow. With the afternoon sea breeze will like winds up again to about 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph for the east coast areas.

A warming trend will continue Friday and into Saturday with daily high temps rising from upper 80s inland Friday and lower 90s on Saturday. Coastal max temps still stay about mid 80s both days. Overnight low temperatures again be fairly cool Friday night in the lower to mid 60s inland and about lower 70s coast. These temps will be a few degrees warmer by Saturday night. We can't rule out very patchy fog both nights due to the calming winds inland areas.

The main story will be the rough surf and life-threatening rip currents at all beaches, though the surf heights will be on a lowering trend overall.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- At Least Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Sunday and Monday.

- Dry Weather Likely to Continue Sunday, with increasing chance of rain Monday through Wednesday.

Surface high pressure system will move out of the area Sunday through Monday as models show a trailing cold front slipping southward along the east coast on Monday, as as backdoor cold front. Moisture will also increase from the west and north during the day on Monday. The front further moves south Monday into Tuesday and into our area. The front and the combination of moisture will lead to enhanced rain chances Monday and Tuesday, highest for Tuesday near 30-50 percent. Breezy northeast winds may begin on Tuesday and continue through Wednesday. The front looks to slip just south of the forecast area on Wednesday with a chance of showers and possible a thunderstorm. Some chance for locally heavy rainfall Tue- Wed with weak signal shown from NBM 70th and 90th percentile guidance.

Temperatures will continue to be warm on Sunday and Monday, with max temps rising into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s coast. With the front's influence on Tuesday and Wednesday, highs will be nudged downward a few degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s generally, with some mid 70s possible at the coast after the frontal passage due to onshore flow.

Marine influences will continue to produce elevated rip current risk Sunday and Monday. Onshore flow may enhance risk further Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected to continue through the forecast period. Light NNW winds this morning quickly increase and shift to NE after 14Z. Sustained winds will be in the 10-15 kt range with gusts around 20 kts. Highest winds will be at JAX, CRG and SGJ. Winds subside rather significantly late this evening and tonight.

MARINE

Elevated northeasterly flow will trend downward through Tonight, with Small Craft Advisory conditions confined to offshore waters today before dropping below these thresholds by Tonight. High pressure then shifts off the southeastern seaboard Friday into the weekend. Lighter onshore flow then persists Friday into the weekend.

Rip Currents: High Risk will continue across area beaches today as onshore flow persists, in addition to surf heights in the 4-5 foot range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas To Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Through Friday

- Low Min Rh Inland Southeast Ga This Afternoon

Elevated transport winds from the east today will support areas of very high daytime dispersion values, especially across inland locations. On Friday, slightly lower easterly transport winds are forecast but they still support areas of high dispersion.

A drier pattern today will result in areas of low min relative humidity over inland southeast GA where values to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s this afternoon.

Despite the drier air mass, recent rainfall and gradually moderating humidity levels should limit significant fire weather concerns.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread fog development is not anticipated over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 84 57 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 83 71 84 73 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 85 63 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 84 70 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 87 61 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 86 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ470- 472. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ474.