textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues for Portions of the St. Johns River Basin

- Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River

- Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible at Inland Locations Early on Wednesday

- Increasing Coastal & Marine Hazards Saturday & Sunday. Gusty Onshore Winds Expected at Coastal Locations. High Risk of Rip Currents Likely at All Area Beaches

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues for Portions of the St. Johns River Basin in Putnam and western Flagler Counties.

Pattern for dry weather will continue through today and tonight as high pressure ridging continues to influence the region. Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the northeast today, resulting a more onshore surface wind flow resulting in mostly sunny and partly cloudy conditions over northeast Florida this afternoon. High temperatures for today will be in the mid to upper 80s over inland areas and in the lower 80s along the shoreline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s for areas along the coast and near the St Johns River. Potential for overnight patchy fog developments to form over inland areas tonight and into very early Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: Wednesday through Thursday night

- Dry weather with above average temperatures

A broad ridge of surface high pressure will prevail across the area this period, with an upper ridge overhead as well. Subsidence under the high pressure will result in dry weather this period, with mainly clear skies.

Temperatures will trend above average this period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: Friday through Monday

- Coastal hazards including flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Friday night through Monday

High pressure will move east and weaken Friday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Precipitation chances will increase across north central FL as moisture pools ahead of the advancing front.

The cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night and Saturday, with strong high pressure building from the northwest. A surge of winds from the northeast will move down the coast following the frontal passage.

High pressure will build more toward the north then northeast Sunday into Monday. Elevated onshore winds will continue Sunday through Monday.

The greatest rainfall potential this period will be near the Atlantic coast, beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through Monday.

Low temperatures will trend near to a little above average this period, with highs above through Friday, then below average.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with mild overnight winds building from out of the northeast this afternoon by around 14z to 16z with speeds reaching up to about 5-10 knots. Winds will drop off and become more mild and variable after around 23z. Potential for early morning fog at VQQ is expected to clear out by around 10z.

MARINE

A high pressure system over the southeast states will slowly move east, and push well offshore by Thursday night and Friday. A strong cold front will cross the local waters late Friday night through Saturday morning, followed by building high pressure well to the north. Lighter winds and seas will continue through at least Thursday. Deteriorating marine conditions expected Friday night and into the weekend with Small Craft Advisories likely and potential for Gale conditions.

Rip Currents: Breezy offshore winds will keep the risk low at all area beaches today. Developing northeasterly winds will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches from Tuesday through Thursday, while low surf heights keep the risk generally low at the southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Friday Through Sunday

High pressure will prevail across the area through Friday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night through Saturday, with a period of elevated onshore winds beginning Friday night, and lasting through at least the early part of next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy fog formation is possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days. Water levels have fallen below flood stage along portions of the St. Mary's River near the gauge at Macclenny, where river flood warnings have been recently discontinued.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Minor tidal flooding is now confined to the St. Johns River and its tributaries in Putnam County, as well as along Crescent Lake in western Flagler County. Elevated astronomical tides and north to northeasterly winds developing on Tuesday may keep water levels elevated to around 1.5 - 2 feet above normally dry ground during times of high tide through around midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 83 68 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 86 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 84 69 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 87 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 87 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for FLZ038- 137. GA...None. MARINE...None.