textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Through the Weekend. Isolated Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding

- High Risk of Rip Currents At Northeast FL Beaches Today. Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Through the Weekend

UPDATE

Inland showers and thunderstorms have ended, but few showers are moving onshore across SE Ga and I-95 into Nassau county, but otherwise a lull in activity will continue inland with increasing coastal showers after midnight along the SE GA and towards dawn over the NE FL coast. Southeast winds will decrease to near calm inland with southeast winds 5-10 mph. Temperatures bottom out in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s along the NE FL coast and around 80 along the SE GA coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with localized flood potential each afternoon and evening - High Risk for Rip Currents over Northeast Florida Beaches this weekend

High pressure will be centered to the northeast through Sunday, then more toward the east Sunday night. The best chance for convection will be during the afternoons, driven by diurnal instability and sea breeze boundaries. Weak inverted troughs will develop in the onshore flow helping to increase convective chances.

There will be a greater daytime gradient of temperatures from east to west on Saturday due to stronger onshore flow. Temperatures will be a little below average near the coast Saturday, otherwise readings will be near average this period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Afternoon Thunderstorms - Heat Advisory Potential Returns Next Week

High pressure will be centered to the east early next week, with ridge extending across area. Subsidence under this ridge will be a limiting factor for diurnal convection.

The ridge will sink to the south mid week, as a trough moves into the southeastern US. The region will then be between high pressure to the southeast, and this stalled front to the north through the end of the week.

In general, isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected this week.

A prevailing southwest flow will result in above average temperatures this week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions with brief restrictions to MVFR ceilings over the next few hours with only few showers and VCSH over the Northeast FL TAF sites, but showers again shifting to SSI after 02Z, then offshore showers and thunderstorms will move onshore to SGJ/CRG/JAX after 04-06Z while staying dry inland through tonight. Restrictions for low MVFR ceilings expected at GNV 08Z to 12Z.

Coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue on the coast with brief gusty showers, then the Atlantic seabreeze will push onshore and increasing chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon hours as a offshore trough moves onshore. Have PROB30 groups for thunderstorms bringing heavy downpours and IFR visibility restrictions/MVFR ceilings and gusty winds up to 30 knots in stronger storms. Light southeast winds inland 4-8 knots will be easterly at the coast behind the seabreeze 8-10 knots.

MARINE

High pressure ridge extending from over Bermuda westward to the southeast states will continue through the weekend. A trough of low pressure will move into the area today, which will increase east to southeast winds and build seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for parts of the Florida waters. In addition, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected at times over the area waters today through Saturday. Some of the thunderstorms may be strong. The high pressure ridge will build back over the area waters early next week resulting in a weaker wind flow.

Rip Currents: Winds are becoming more easterly and seas at area buoys have risen slightly compared to yesterday to about 2 ft. An increase in wind waves and breezier onshore flow will put the risk solidly in moderate to high today. By Saturday, we will likely be moderate to high risk based on current forecasts. Maybe a touch lower risk on Sunday, but still close to the moderate to high category. In any event, swimming conditions will deteriorate today through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy high afternoon dispersions beginning Tuesday

High pressure ridging will be over the area through early next week. An inverted trough will be over region Today. The high will be centered more toward the southeast the second half of next week, as a cold front moves into the southeastern US and stalls.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive locally heavy rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 88 73 92 / 20 80 30 50 SSI 77 88 78 90 / 80 80 20 40 JAX 74 89 74 92 / 40 60 10 70 SGJ 76 88 75 90 / 50 60 20 30 GNV 73 89 73 92 / 20 70 40 60 OCF 74 90 74 92 / 30 60 40 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.