textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast Florida Beaches. Moderate Risk at Southeast GA Beaches

- Scattered Thunderstorms Inland Late This Afternoon and Evening. Main Strong Storm Hazard Area: Inland Locations Along U.S.-301

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Beginning on Thursday. Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flooding will be a Concern. Widespread 2-4 Rainfall Totals Forecast through Tuesday

- Hot and Humid - Daily Heat Index 95- 105F through Friday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, with a few strong storms possible - High Risk of Rip Currents NE FL beaches

High pressure will be centered to the east this afternoon and evening. The flow around this high Today will be from the south. The east coast sea breeze will move further inland during the afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate on the sea breeze, with this activity slowly moving west. The high will become centered more toward the southeast Tonight. This pattern change will lead to more of a flow from the southwest, allowing Gulf moisture to push into area. This will keep precipitation chances well inland going through the night.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Overspread Our Region from South to North Beginning on Thursday.

- Strong storm potential on Thursday afternoon along the I-95 corridor. - Heat index upper 90s to lower 100s for portions of our area during the afternoon hours on Thursday and Friday.

An overall shift to a more southwesterly-westerly flow over the region as high pressure over the western Atlantic begins a southeastern shift. This will open up a lane for tropical moisture to be brought into the area from the Gulf, with PWATs expected to increase and range from 2" to 2.5" through the work week. The southwesterly-westerly flow will also shift convective activity more towards the I-95 corridor and the Atlantic coast. Periods of heavy downpours will be possible for any storms that do develop, with localized flooding for any slow-moving storms or if training of storms develop. The southwesterly flow will also filter in warmer temperatures to the area, with daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday. With the increased moisture and the warmer temperatures, heat indices will reach into the upper 90s with a few spots nearing 100. Overnight Lows in the 70s across NE FL, with the upper 60s across SE GA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Expected to Continue, with Beneficial Rainfall Totals Forecast Area-Wide.

- Clouds and Cooler Temperatures Expected Early Next Week.

Shower and storm chances will persist through the weekend as a front pushes towards SE GA and begin to slow and potentially stalling over parts of the area during the later part of the forecast period. With overall flow continuing to be from the west, much of the activity will be pushed towards the I-95 corridor and Atlantic coast during the weekend. By next week, the amount and coverage of activity will be dependent on the location of the front. With current guidance suggesting the front slowing down and stalling across NE FL, this would see higher chances of precipitation for locations along the boundary, with highest chances across north central FL.

Temperatures will be in the 80s with warmest temperatures across NE FL, with some locations potentially in the lower 90s during the weekend. A downward trend in temperatures as the cold front dips across the area at the start of next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Convection will develop, and increase in coverage this afternoon. Restrictions in and near storms will be possible, along with gusty winds. The tempo group at each TAF site represents the period with the greatest chance for storms. Chances for precipitation will decrease Tonight. An earlier start to convection is expected on Thursday.

MARINE

High pressure will be centered to the east Today.

The region will be between high pressure to the southeast, and a frontal zone to the north Tonight through Friday. The frontal zone will settle across the area over the weekend, and remain nearly stationary into the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Today, Low Thursday NE FL High Today, Moderate Thursday

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Daytime Dispersions Over Interior Se Ga Thursday And Friday

Showers and isolated storms will linger during the overnight hours into the early morning hours Thursday. A shift to southwesterly winds will allow for the Gulf breeze to push further inland by the afternoon to evening hours on Thursday and Friday. With increased moisture advection from the Gulf, widespread waves of downpours are forecast area-wide from into the weekend, which may be followed by a late season cool front early next week. Lowering mixing heights will bring Poor dispersions for portions across SE GA on Thursday and Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic winds are expected during periods of thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 69 83 68 83 / 60 70 40 80 SSI 75 86 73 84 / 40 80 50 80 JAX 73 88 71 87 / 50 90 50 80 SGJ 74 88 73 87 / 40 60 30 80 GNV 71 87 71 88 / 70 80 20 80 OCF 72 86 73 87 / 70 70 30 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.