textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents Today - Minor Tidal Flooding within the St Johns River through this Evening. Elevated Tides in the St Johns River through the Weekend

- Small Craft Advisories through This Evening

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High rip current risk and elevated surf heights through Tonight - Minor flooding possible the St Johns river with next couple of high tide cycles through this evening

Winds are calm inland this morning while remaining light 5-10 mph from the north along the coast and St Johns river as the pressure gradient eases over the region as strong low pressure lifts further away to the north as high pressure ridging extends from the Midwest into the TN valley and southeast states. Dry northerly flow, clear skies, and winds backing to the northwest in the mid/upper levels is providing cool air advection with temperatures falling into the mid 50s across inland SE GA south and the I-10 corridor with upper 50s west of the St Johns river. But, northerly to NNE flow over the coast is keeping milder temperatures there in the low to mid 60s.

High pressure over the deep south and southeast will remain the primary weather influence today with sunny skies and below normal highs in the low 80s inland and upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Winds 5-10 mph will turn NNE this afternoon up to 10-15 mph behind the Atlantic seabreeze developing mid to late afternoon and turning winds northeasterly as the boundary moves west past I-95 mid afternoon and then past US-17 by late afternoon.

Tonight, low to mid level ridging aloft will move over the area with winds decoupling inland to calm under mostly clear skies as a few high thin cirrus clouds arriving from the west. Lows will fall to the low/mid 50s west of I-95 in SE GA and west of US-17 in NE FL with upper 50s east of I-95 to near 60 at the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period (Sunday/Monday):

- Minor Tidal Flooding Likely within the St. Johns River Basin.

- Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents at Atlantic Beaches

- Temperatures return closer to normal values Sunday and Monday

Light West to Northwest steering flow and a dry airmass in place will allow for daytime temps to return closer to seasonable values with highs in the middle 80s Sunday and into the upper 80s on Monday with no rainfall expected. Overnight lows will still remain cooler than normal with lows in the 50s/lower 60s inland both nights and mid/upper 60s closer to the Atlantic Coast. Patchy fog will be possible over inland areas around sunrise both mornings, but significant dense fog in not expected due to the dry airmass in place.

Lingering minor tidal flooding will remain within the St. Johns River Basin during times of high tide, but will begin to lessen by Monday as offshore flow develops. Moderate to high risk of rip currents will linger at Atlantic beaches due to the remaining swells and rough surf despite the offshore flow.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Friday):

- Return to above normal temperatures and increasing rain chances late in the week

Initially dry weather conditions will be in place on Tuesday and Wednesday but above normal temperatures will return with highs into the lower 90s inland and 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Long range models suggesting a tropical wave with deeper moisture in SE flow will track NW up the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf late in the week with increasing rainfall chances and potential thunderstorm activity on Thursday and Friday, mostly for NE FL but some moisture will push into SE GA for at least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail during the period. Only exception will be MVFR restrictions at VQQ due to localized patchy fog. Near calm winds will become northerly 5-8 knots this afternoon and up to around 10 knots at SGJ/SSI and turn northeasterly behind the a weak Atlantic seabreeze this afternoon, winds then become calm after 00Z inland and light and variable at the coast under a few high clouds.

MARINE

Strong low pressure to the northeast will track further away to the north through the end of the weekend as high pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the southeast. As low pressure lifts away, the pressure gradient will ease over the region with gradually diminishing winds and seas through this evening, ending small craft conditions nearshore late this morning and offshore this evening. High pressure will shift over the region Sunday and Monday with prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds, turning easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by midweek.

Rip Currents: Breezy north northeasterly winds today, long period swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4 to 6 feet will continue high risk of rip currents today. Long period swells will persist through Sunday and continue a high risk of rip currents through the end of the weekend at Northeast FL beaches with a high end moderate risk at Southeast Georgia beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Over the weekend a dry airmass will push across the area and lower afternoon humidity to at least 25-30% for several inland districts Today, Sunday, and Monday. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly Today, with breezy conditions persisting at coastal locations. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide. Winds will become light and turn westerly on Sunday. Warming temperatures and rising humidity levels are expected through next week with winds favoring the diurnal Atlantic sea breeze regime.

Fog Potential...Significant fog formation unlikely the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon later today. Breezy north to northeasterly onshore winds today will keep trapped tides within the St Johns river with water slow to drain Sunday into early next week due to lingering high astronomical tides and light winds. Water levels peaking during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) from Friday evening's high tides are forecast to peak again between 1.5 - 2 feet MHHW for the upcoming high tide cycles this morning and again this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 81 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 80 62 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 80 56 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 80 60 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 82 55 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 84 57 87 62 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ125-132- 137-225-325-633. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ452- 454. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ472-474.