textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Overnight and Early Tuesday Morning for Inland Northeast and North Central FL.

- A high rip current risk and rough surf likely for area beaches starting Tuesday and last through at least Thursday.

- Breezy northeast winds begins Tuesday, continues through Thursday.

- A Wind Advisory is possible for the immediate coast Tuesday and Wednesday

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Overnight and Early Tuesday Morning for Inland Northeast and North Central FL.

Convection will fade and shift southwest with some light trailing stratiform in its wake for the remainder of this evening, which will also fade before midnight. Mostly a quiet night will follow the convective cessation but a backdoor cold front that will bring windy conditions Tuesday will begin to surge down the GA coast around daybreak tomorrow. Tonight will be similar regarding low temperatures, with inland temperatures in the low/mid 70s and upper 70s at the coast.

SHORT TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- A high rip current risk and rough surf likely for area beaches starting Tuesday and last through at least Thursday.

- Breezy northeast winds begins Tuesday, continues through Thursday.

- A Wind Advisory is possible for the immediate coast Tuesday and Wednesday.

Stronger northeasterly flow develops as high pressure builds to our northeast. Most of the Atlantic coast and along the St. Johns river will see frequent gusts near 30 mph, occasional gusts closer to 40mph both Tuesday and Wednesday. Onshore winds will bring morning showers onshore near the coast, spreading inland throughout the day, with storms expected to pick up in the afternoon on Tuesday. Higher precipitation chances will generally be over northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast as drier air filters into inland Georgia. Much drier air will move into the area Wednesday (PWATs 1- 1.5"), keeping precipitation chances very low, only around 15-20% near the east coast. Temperatures both days will be 'cooler' near the coast in the mid to upper 80s, lower 90s further inland.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- Elevated rip current risk and rough surf for area beaches will continue this period.

Quite the spread in precipitation chances is expected on Thursday as dry air lays across inland southeast Georgia, and enhanced moisture moves onshore across the east coast and inland northeast Florida. The breezy onshore winds do ease slightly on Thursday, but we will still see higher gusts near the beaches. Morning showers and isolated storms again will move onto the coast and spread inland through the day, with showers continuing overnight near the coast. High rain and storm chances continue Friday through the weekend as a front sinks southward towards the area and onshore flow continues. Overall, high temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Vicinity thunderstorms are expected to move further away from the GNV terminal by 01Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 04Z Tuesday. Fog and low stratus ceilings are expected to develop across inland northeast and north central FL overnight, with confidence high enough to predict LIFR conditions at VQQ before 07Z and IFR to LIFR conditions towards 09Z at GNV. A period of IFR conditions cannot be ruled out before 12Z at JAX and CRG, but confidence was too low to indicate in the 00Z TAFs at this time. A surge of northeasterly surface winds will overspread SSI, the Duval County terminals, and SGJ after 12Z, with sustained speeds increasing to around 15 knots after 14Z at SSI and then spreading southward by 18Z, with frequent 20-30 knot gusts possible during the afternoon hours. Ceilings will also lower in concert with this wind surge, with MVFR conditions likely after 15Z at the regional terminals. Showers will begin to move onshore from the Atlantic waters as well, with confidence in timing and intensity to low for anything else than a PROB30 group for MVFR visibilities during heavier downpours at this time, mainly after 17Z through the end of the TAF period, except at GNV, where only vicinity showers were forecast.

MARINE

A strong northeast wind surge will accompany a frontal passage and bring small craft advisory conditions, rough seas, and waves of scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms over the area waters beginning on Tuesday morning. Improving conditions are expected by Friday as onshore winds weaken and seas gradually lower.

Rip Currents: Strengthening northeast winds and building surf combine to lead to dangerous surf and a high rip current risk area beaches during the morning hours on Tuesday and is expected to continue through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

-PATCHY TO AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

Strong high pressure will build to the northeast as a backdoor cool front moves through on Tuesday. Much higher winds begin by midday Tuesday for the coastal areas with speeds up to 15 to 20 mph, gusting to 30-35 mph. These elevated winds remain in place for Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, especially at the coast. The high pressure north of the area will weaken Friday, with another high building to the northeast over the weekend. Strong surface and transport winds will lead to areas of high daytime dispersion for the Tuesday to Thursday time frame.

Fog Potential... Some patchy fog is possible late tonight/early Tuesday morning inland areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 91 69 89 / 0 20 0 0 SSI 79 87 77 86 / 0 40 10 20 JAX 75 88 75 88 / 0 60 30 10 SGJ 77 87 77 86 / 10 60 50 20 GNV 74 90 74 89 / 10 50 20 0 OCF 75 91 75 90 / 30 60 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-472. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ454-474.