textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Friday. Be Very Cautious with Outdoor Fires. Check for Local Burn Bans.

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Inland.

- Light Inland Freezes this morning & Saturday Morning. Freeze Warnings this morning Most Inland Locations. Freeze Watch for Inland Southeast Georgia Saturday Morning.

- Small Craft Advisories through this Evening.

- Beneficial Rain Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong Thunderstorm Potential Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Sunny, breezy, and chilly today. After an inland morning freeze and wind chills in the 30s through 9 am, highs will only reach the 50s for most today near 60 toward Marion-Putnam and Flagler counties. These highs are about 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Gusty northwest to north winds will range from near 20-25 mph inland to near 30 mph along the coast.

Winds begin to become NNE this evening to ENE tonight as a coastal trough begins to form over the local waters. The onshore flow will moderate temperatures near coastal areas with lows in the 40s extending inland toward the I-95 corridor of SE GA and the northeast Florida St. Johns River basin tonight, while min temperatures below 40 are expected once again farther inland across SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley. Higher confidence of another light freeze will be across inland SE GA where a Freeze Watch was posted through daybreak Saturday morning. For the Suwannee River Valley of NE FL, a frost event is more likely where temps will reach the mid/upper 30s tonight, but confidence of a heavy frost is not high enough for a Frost Advisory at this time given increasing high clouds from the west through the night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Another chilly morning is expected Saturday, with mostly cloudy skies keeping high temperatures below normal in the upper 50s to low 70s. A developing coastal trough will increase the pressure gradient, allowing for breezy onshore winds Saturday, helping keep coastal temperatures cooler during the day and more mild overnight. Lows Saturday will remain above 40 degrees area-wide, so there are no frost/freeze concerns.

Southwesterly steering flow will develop Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front. Moisture and warm air advection will raise temperatures after a cooler past few days, highs will reach the 70s area-wide, near 80 in north central Florida. After sunset Sunday, isolated showers will enter the forecast area, lingering through the night. More beneficial rainfall totals and thunderstorm coverage will increase early next week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

With a cold front approaching from the west, and a lifting warm front moving north across the Florida panhandle, an increase in moisture will bring showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday evening. Beneficial rainfall will primarily fall over southeast Georgia, where much of the severe to extreme drought currently persists.

Precipitation chances Monday are at about 20-30% as south/southwest steering flow brings PWATs near or above 1.5 inches. Further moister advection from strengthening low pressure will increase rainfall chances to 60-80% across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia on Tuesday. A low level southwesterly jet of 40-50 knots at 850 millibars may favor strong storm development on Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s in southeast Georgia, to upper 70s for portions of northeast Florida both days.

After the front passes Tuesday night, drier air will move in and temperatures will be cooler in the upper 50s to 60s on Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. NNW winds 5-10 kts become NNE across FL terminals Fri afternoon. Gusts 20-25 kts at times by mid-morning Fri. Increasing high clouds from the west this afternoon and into the overnight, with a few low coastal clouds nearing SGJ after 06z through 12z Saturday morning.

MARINE

Gusty northerly winds and elevated seas will continue Small Craft Advisory conditions today as high pressure builds north of the region. Onshore flow weakens tonight into Saturday as the high builds to the northeast. A coastal trough develops Sunday and Monday with a few coastal showers. A stronger frontal system approaches late Monday into Tuesday with southerly winds nearing Small Craft levels over at least the outer waters and a chance of thunderstorms. The front is expected to push south of the local waters by Tuesday evening. High pressure builds quickly over the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with northerly winds below Small Craft levels.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip today with stronger long-shore (north to south) currents. High rip current risk likely Saturday for a least NE Florida beaches as onshore (east) winds develop. Moderate to low end high rip current risk for Sunday. A coastal trough develops late Saturday into Sunday with a few showers.

FIRE WEATHER

A very dry air mass will persist across our region on Friday, creating long durations of critically low humidity values at all inland locations in the 15-25% range. Breezy northerly transport winds during the morning hours will weaken slightly during the late afternoon hours, with surface speeds expected to remain below Red Flag Warning criteria. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are expected area-wide. Surface and transport winds will shift to east- northeasterly by early Saturday morning and then easterly by Saturday afternoon, with breezy transport speeds area-wide. These breezy winds will create good daytime dispersion values, with marginally high values possible in the Ocala National Forest. Surface and transport winds will then diminish as they shift to southeasterly by Sunday morning and southerly at inland locations by Sunday afternoon, with elevated mixing heights yielding fair to good daytime dispersion values throughout our area.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 31 61 43 74 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 43 65 56 72 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 39 68 52 78 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 47 70 59 77 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 38 71 52 80 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 39 71 53 79 / 0 0 0 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-322-422-425-522. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450- 470. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ452- 454-472-474.