textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Likely through the weekend.

- Scattered Thunderstorms Mainly West of US 301 this Evening

- Locally Dense Morning Fog Inland through Sunday

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sunday Afternoon through Monday

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

UPDATE

For the update, made adjustments to the POPs which have not reflected that well as far as the placement in the latest NBM or the HRRR model. In any case, the IR images show cloud tops are warming and the intensity of showers and storms by radar has diminished. Expect most of the activity will be dissipated by midnight. A few showers also noted over the marine waters but they should stay mainly offshore waters this evening. Otherwise, some updates for winds and temps through Saturday. Patchy fog still possible late tonight but dense fog potential looks low.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches Today.

- Isolated to Scattered T'Storms this Afternoon for Inland Areas West of US-301. Main hazards: Lightning and Localized Heavy Rain.

- Patchy inland fog early Saturday primarily over inland locations.

Scattered to locally numerous showers will continue to develop through the afternoon and evening hours today along with a potential for embedded isolated thunderstorms, with the heaviest developments expected to occur over inland southeast Georgia and for areas along and west of the I-75 corridor. Potential for heavy localized rainfall with stronger developments. High temperatures for this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s for inland areas and in the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 60s. Patchy to locally dense fog developments are expected to develop over inland areas west of the I-95 corridor during the overnight and early morning hours.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm potential Sunday Afternoon-Night

-Near Record Highs Possible Sunday

Southeasterly flow continues on Saturday as high pressure over the Atlantic begins to move further east as a cold front pushes towards the SE CONUS, with the front crossing into the area during the overnight hours on Sunday. Drier air on Saturday will limit precipitation chances for most of the area, with isolated showers possible along far interior SE GA during the afternoon hours. Winds will begin to shift to southwesterly as the high pressure moves further towards the Atlantic, ahead of the approaching cold front during the overnight hours into Sunday. Chances of showers increase through the day on Sunday, with an increase in thunderstorm chances during the afternoon hours as the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes push inland, with mergers likely to occur near the I-95 corridor due to the southwesterly flow. Showers and storms will begin to lessen Sunday evening.

Warm seasonal temperatures this weekend as warm air continues to advect into the area. Daytime highs rise into the upper 80s on Saturday and Sunday, with some locations possibly reaching near record highs in the lower 90s across north central FL on Sunday afternoon. Overnight Lows will mainly remain in the lower 60s on Saturday and Sunday night, but locations north of Waycross will have cooler air begin to advect into the area behind the front come Sunday night, with Lows dipping to the upper 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm potential Monday Afternoon -Strong onshore flow next week, with elevated winds along the coast and inland locations

The cold front will continue to push through on Monday and be south of the area by Monday afternoon/evening. Scattered showers will be present for much of the day along the front as it pushes through, with scattered to numerous showers across north central FL by the afternoon hours. Could see a few embedded thunderstorms over NE FL as the front pushes through. Behind the front, strong high pressure looks to build down along the southeastern seaboard through Thursday. Aside from scattered showers primarily along the coast and NE FL through midweek, this will set up the potential for a surge of strong northeasterly winds, with gusts possibly reaching into the 30 to 40 mph range over the marine zones, coastal locations, and possibly towards inland locations of NE FL. Temperatures will drop to be near and just below the seasonal average for next week behind the front.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through late evening and overnight. A few showers possible around GNV this evening and most of the evening convective activity expected to remain west of the terminal. Patchy fog possible for GNV and VQQ late tonight. East and southeast wind speeds will begin to diminish this evening, increasing again after 14z-15z Saturday. Very low chance of precip for Saturday so no mention of convection is placed in TAFs at this time.

MARINE

Breezy southeast winds continue, reaching near cautionary levels offshore through tonight. Southeast winds and isolated showers continue through into the daytime hours on Sunday as a slowing cold front approaches from out of the northwest. The front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms as it pushes across the waters early Monday morning. Behind the front, high pressure building north of the area will wedge southward during the first half of next week, resulting in a surge of northeast winds followed by several days of strong onshore winds.

Rip Currents:

Easterly ocean swell is expected to weaken some today but with a steady southeasterly wind, 3-5 ft breakers for NE FL and around 2-4 ft in SE GA will lead to a High Risk or Rips along the entire First Coast today. Surf will trend up slightly through the weekend and it's likely that conditions will warrant an extension of the High Rip Current Risk through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions This Weekend

High pressure over the Atlantic will continue east-southeasterly winds over the area through Saturday, then winds shift to southwesterly-westerly on Sunday as the high pressure pushes further towards the Atlantic ahead of an approaching cold front. Lingering showers will begin to dissipate during the early evening hours Tonight. Slightly drier air on Saturday will keep rain chances low across the area, with isolated to scattered chances of showers over far interior SE GA. Elevated mixing heights inland this weekend and increasing southwesterly winds will result in generally good dispersions with areas of high dispersions this weekend. Beneficial rain returns Sunday into early next week as a cold front moves through the region.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog potential each morning into this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 64 86 62 85 / 40 20 0 40 SSI 66 77 64 81 / 0 0 0 30 JAX 64 85 62 89 / 0 0 0 30 SGJ 65 81 63 85 / 0 0 0 40 GNV 63 89 61 89 / 30 10 0 30 OCF 64 88 63 89 / 20 0 0 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 6 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.