textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues for St Johns River through at least Tuesday Night. High Rip Current Risk and High Surf (NE FL beaches) through Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Tuesday night

- Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast Today

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Heavy rainfall and localized Minor Flooding possible for north- central FL through sunrise

- Minor tidal flooding within the St Johns River basin continues

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Steady rain and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue across north-central FL zones through the early morning hours as the upper shortwave closes off into a small closed upper low. Vorticity lobes rotating around the developing low will eventually begin to drift southwestward as it begins to retrograde after daybreak. Through dawn it's possible that an inch or two of rain may accumulate across Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties. Without convective energy to work with, the steady stratiform rain is unlikely to amount to significant flood concerns through the rest of the night, though minor urban flooding cannot be ruled out through the rest of the early morning.

Shifting to today, the newly formed upper low will lose it's influence locally as it drifts back into the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile the near surface convergence along the coastal trough will generate bouts of shallow showers that will be push inland by persistent breezy onshore flow, generally moving into the I-95 corridor and the St Johns River basin. Though for many locations overcast conditions and bouts of showers will continue today, there may be a bit more filtered sunshine across inland portions of SE GA this afternoon as subsidence increases in the wake of a departing shortwave. A bit more sunshine will help afternoon temperatures to rise into the low 80s for some areas across SE GA while cloudier areas elsewhere only warm to the mid/upper 70s.

Tonight, continued moist convergent flow will lead to additional waves of scattered showers into the coastal zones through at least midnight before tapering off. Temperatures will be very mild once again for early November with readings generally in the mid/upper 60s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

A stratiform rain shield across portions of NE FL will shift southward through 15z this morning. A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings are expected at terminals along and south of a line from KGNV to KSGJ. Light showers will push inland off the Atlantic through the rest of the day with another period of showers developing again this evening, which may bring another period of MVFR to IFR ceilings to TAF airfields after 02z this evening. ENE winds around 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts develop after 15z and continue through around 22z. A coastal trough in place will back winds NNE overnight with speeds falling to 5-10 knots.

MARINE

Strong high pressure wedged along the coast will continue elevated seas and small craft advisory conditions through at Tuesday. Though winds will begin to decrease Tonight, lingering elevated seas will remain through Tuesday night. High pressure will remain to the north but with a weaker influence through the second half of the week resulting in lighter winds and lowering seas. Bouts of showers and heavy downpours will be possible through the middle of the upcoming week, especially Today and Tuesday as coastal troughing develops. A cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and pass across the local waters Thursday night or Friday morning.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Dangerous surf zone conditions continue with a High rip current risk at all area beaches through Monday and elevated to high surf for the entire coast. The highest breakers, around 6-8 feet will be from Ponte Vedra south through today. Improving surf zone conditions are expected late this week.

FIRE WEATHER

A weakening cold front settling southward will maintain breezy east northeast winds through today, particularly along the coast, where gusts up 25 to 30 mph are possible. Periods of showers will move across the area, with coverage increasing late this afternoon and evening, primarily occurring south of the Interstate 10 corridor. Winds will gradually shift to the east early next week before becoming southerly by midweek as wind speeds decrease.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not anticipated. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across Northeast Florida from today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 79 65 82 65 / 10 10 20 0 SSI 77 67 78 68 / 30 30 10 0 JAX 79 67 81 67 / 60 30 20 0 SGJ 77 70 79 70 / 70 40 30 10 GNV 81 68 83 68 / 50 20 40 10 OCF 81 69 84 69 / 40 20 40 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ038-125- 132-137-225-325-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ138-233- 333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472- 474.