textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Beneficial Rainfall and Embedded Thunderstorms Continue through Wednesday. Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms for North Central and Portions of Northeast FL this Afternoon.

- Breezy Northeasterly Winds Today with Hazardous Beach Conditions. High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Wednesday.

- Small Craft Advisories Posted for Our Local Atlantic Near Shore Waters from St. Augustine Northward Today and for the Offshore Waters through Tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy onshore Northeast Winds Today with Hazardous Beach Conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions through this evening along with a high risk of Rip Currents at all area beaches.

- Beneficial Rainfall and Embedded Thunderstorms through Tonight, Especially Across Northeast and North Central FL.

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms this Afternoon for North Central and Portions of Northeast FL.

Showers will become widespread through the late morning hours along and north of I-10 to US82 and numerous over NE FL south of I-10, then become widespread this afternoon as the front sags into north central FL midday to early afternoon. Embedded scattered T'storms will enhance rain rates within the shield of ran as the low pressure area moves east near the coast of the FL panhandle towards the Nature coast. An isolated strong to severe elevated T'storm is possible across Flagler/St Johns/Putnam/Marion counties as 35-40 knots of 0-6km shear and PWATs above the 90th percentile may support gusty wet downburst potential. Otherwise breezy NE winds 15-20 mph will remain at the coast with gusts to 30 mph and trending 10-15mph inland with gust to 25 mph. Highs will be below normal due to the clouds with upper 60s to low 70s over SE GA, low 70s along I-10, and mid to upper 70s southward with isolated low 80s south of Ocala to Flagler Beach line.

Tonight, widespread showers will slowly shift off the Atlantic coast into the coastal waters with scattered to numerous coastal convergent showers ongoing well into the predawn morning hours Wednesday as the mid/upper level trough axis shifts into the waters to the east of the FL peninsula. Widespread rainfall totals will be 1.00-2.5 inches across the areas well north of US 82 near the Altamaha river. Skies will remain mostly cloudy with low stratus clouds through sunrise Wednesday. Winds will remain NE 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast where winds will turn more easterly by dawn.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Widely Scattered T'storms Wednesday along the Atlantic Seabreeze.

Drier weather conditions will settle into place after Wednesday as weakening high pressure moves off to the east and an advancing cold front presses in from out of the northwest and crosses over the forecast area by Thursday. Clearing skies, northwesterly winds, and drier air will be in place on Thursday as high pressure conditions settle in over the region by Thursday afternoon. High temperatures for midweek will rise into the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower to mid 60s for inland areas and in the upper 60s along the coastline.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

- Dry Conditions late this week into the Weekend.

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

Predominantly dry weather conditions will continue through Friday and Saturday with potential for isolated to scattered showers to increase on Sunday as high pressure drifts towards the northeast and prevailing flow shifts about to become more onshore from out of the east. High temperatures going into the weekend and the beginning of next week will rise to be well above the seasonal average with max temps expected to rise into the lower to mid 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

IFR conditions will prevail through at least 04Z Wednesday at the northeast FL terminals. MVFR conditions at SSI will likely deteriorate to IFR by 14Z, with IFR conditions then expected to prevail throughout the rest of the period. Potentially strong thunderstorms may impact the GNV terminal after 19Z, and a TEMPO group for brief wind gusts up to 35 knots was included in the TAF from 20Z-00Z. Periods of heavier showers are forecast at the rest of the terminals through at least 03Z Wednesday, and a few embedded vicinity thunderstorms will be possible at the Duval County terminals and SGJ. Heavier showers may continue at the regional terminals past 04Z, but confidence was too low to indicate anything other than vicinity coverage at this time. Northeasterly surface winds will become sustained at 10-15 knots at the inland terminals by 15Z, with sustained speeds at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals increasing to 15-20 knots by 16Z. Frequent gusts of 20-30 knots outside of thunderstorm activity will be possible through around 03Z at the regional terminals. Surface speeds will diminish to 5-10 knots at the inland terminals towards 06Z, while speeds at the coastal terminals will subside to around 10 knots towards 09Z Wednesday.

MARINE

A cold front over the Southeast Georgia waters will move into the Northeast Florida waters through the morning hours today. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will overspread our local waters into this afternoon and this evening with periods of heavier downpours possible at times. High pressure will build to the north today with a surge of northeasterly winds with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing throughout the waters this morning north of St Augustine and expanding southward this afternoon. Winds will turn easterly into Wednesday morning with decreasing winds and seas. Showers may linger through Wednesday before another high pressure center builds southward from the Great Lakes region late this week with drier weather conditions into the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents:

A high risk is forecast at area beaches Today due to breezy onshore winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph surging along the Northeast FL and Southeast Georgia Beaches. Surf heights will build to 2-4 feet on Today at the southeast GA beaches and 3-5 feet at the northeast FL beaches. These surf heights will persist into Wednesday, keeping an elevated risk in place at all area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Afternoon Dispersions Thursday

- Near Critically Low Humidity Values During the Afternoon Hours on Thursday and Friday Across Inland Southeast Georgia.

Showers and storms will continue to develop through today and tonight as a cold front pushes through the area. Winds will primarily be from the northeast-east today, with stronger winds along the coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely along the sea breeze mergers during the afternoon hours. Activity will begin to lessen by this evening, with coastal showers/storms expected to build overnight tonight and into early Wednesday morning with isolated showers/storms expected to build along the Atlantic seabreezes over the US-17 and I-95 corridors. Dry cold front moves through Thursday, high pressure will build overhead Friday and Saturday. Drier airmass arriving on Thursday and increasing transport winds ahead of and behind the dry cold front will create widespread high afternoon dispersions. MinRH values will fall to near critical levels Thursday and Friday over inland Southeast Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Gusty and erratic winds expected in and near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 70 60 81 61 / 70 30 20 0 SSI 72 69 79 67 / 90 80 60 0 JAX 73 65 81 64 / 90 80 70 0 SGJ 74 69 81 68 / 80 80 70 0 GNV 75 65 83 64 / 90 70 60 10 OCF 80 67 83 66 / 90 60 60 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450- 452. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ474.