textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hazardous Marine and Surf Conditions Continue through Monday. High Rip Current Risk & High Surf Advisory Today at All Area Beaches. Small Craft Advisories throughout Our Local Atlantic Waters through Tonight

- Isolated Afternoon TStorms Possible Mon through Sat, Mainly Inland

- Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog at Inland Locations Possible Each Morning from Tuesday through Friday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Hazardous Marine and Coastal Conditions Prevail. A High Rip Current Risk and High Surf Advisories Will Continue at All Area Beaches.

- Wildfire activity across inland Southeast Georgia, with some impacts due to smoke settling near the ground tonight

Rest of this afternoon: Breezy/Easterly flow across the local area with high pressure north of the region over the Carolinas and inverted trough of low pressure over the Atlantic Coastal waters. This will continue East winds at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph from the Atlantic Coast across inland areas as well. Max temps will top out in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 60s/near 70 at Atlantic beachfront locations. Atmospheric moisture with PWATs slightly over an inch across NE FL will support some diurnal isolated to scattered light shower activity, but likely not deep enough convection to support any thunderstorms.

Wildfire activity has broken out across inland SE GA with an ongoing fire across extreme Northern Ware county. The smoke from this fire will drift Westward into Atkinson and Coffee counties through the afternoon and evening hours.

Tonight: Breezy easterly winds diminish to 5 mph inland and 10G15 mph along the Atlantic Coast after sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes due to high pressure ridge over the Carolinas lifting slightly northward through the overnight hours. Skies expected to become partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight, with only isolated shower activity over the Atlantic Coastal waters, with only low chances of any activity reaching the Coastal Counties/I-95 corridor. Low temps will fall into the 50s inland and remain around 60 along the Atlantic Coast. Some patchy fog will be possible, but low level winds should remain just elevated enough to prevent widespread fog. Some mixed smoke/fog (super fog) will be possible near and west of the wildfire location across inland SE GA during the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rough Surf and Elevated Rip Current Risk Persists into Monday

- Scattered Showers & Isolated T'storm Potential Monday and Tuesday Afternoons

East to northeast onshore flow gradually transitions towards a more southeasterly flow throughout the short term period as low level high pressure slowly shifts more north and east of the region. Rather breezy conditions with sustained winds in the 10-20G25 range will continue towards the coast and much of northeast FL, persisting elevated surf and rip current risk along with some isolated to scattered showers popping up with the sea breeze moving inland as heating/instability increases as the flow shifts and low level moisture remains in place. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible each day, mainly over inland northeast FL where the best convergence will be closer to the weak Gulf breeze.

Highs Monday will rebound into the upper 70s to low 80s inland, with mid 70s more common near the coast. This will uptick to low to mid 80s inland Tuesday, and mid to upper 70s closer to the coast. The increase in low level moisture as well as more mild morning lows will also reintroduce fog potential inland on both Monday and Tuesday Nights where low level winds drop enough.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Showers & T'storms Each Afternoon & Evening - Patchy Nightly Fog, locally Dense inland - Above Normal Temps Persist for the Long Term

Southeasterly flow regime featuring just enough low level moisture and very warm temps daily will persist isolated to perhaps scattered showers each afternoon and evening during the long term, in addition to morning fog chances primarily inland where winds calm down each night. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, especially over inland northeast FL with the best moisture and convergence. Otherwise, low level high pressure positioned east of the Carolinas will keep a persistent southeasterly flow pattern going through much of the long term, with the next frontal system not looking likely until at least the latter half of next weekend, with confidence in impacts from this being low at this time. As suggested above, temps will generally remain above normal, though at least several degrees cooler by the coast.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Abundant cloud cover continues in the breezy easterly flow this afternoon, but has become VFR CIGS in the 3000-5000 ft range for the most part, and other than a brief MVFR CIG or brief shower (VCSH) at SGJ/GNV expect main impact to be sustained easterly winds close to 15 knots with gusts in the 20-25 knot range through sunset, then winds will settle down to around 5 knots at inland terminals and 8- 10 knots at coastal terminals along with continued VFR CIGS. These light east winds at inland terminals should be enough to prevent any significant fog around sunrise and will continue to leave out at this time. Late in the current TAF period, the East winds will begin to pick up once again after 15Z to 10-13G15-20 knots.

MARINE

Strong high pressure over the Mid Atlantic States will shift eastward over the western Atlantic waters tonight and Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will prevail through tonight throughout our local waters, with elevated seas keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions in place on Monday across the northeast Florida waters. Meanwhile, coastal troughing will remain situated over the northeast Florida waters through Tuesday, generating occasional showers through Tuesday, with isolated embedded thunderstorms possible on Monday and Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure positioned near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis westward across the southeastern states during the middle to late portions of this week, maintaining breezy southeasterly winds across our local waters, with elevated seas persisting offshore.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Life threatening surf conditions will continue through Monday as strong onshore winds persist this afternoon and only gradually subside on tonight and Monday. A High Surf Advisory will remain in effect through this evening at all area beaches, with breakers of 8-10 feet continuing at the northeast FL beaches, with heights of 5- 7 feet expected at the southeast GA beaches. Dangerous rip currents will be present, and there will be a significant risk for anyone who ventures into the surf zone through Monday. Surf will only gradually diminish on Tuesday as breezy onshore winds prevail, and a high risk may continue at the northeast FL beaches as breezy southeasterly winds combine with an easterly ocean swell. A moderate risk is expected from Tuesday through at least Friday at the southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Possible Late Week

High pressure will remain in control over the next several days as it slowly drifts north and east of the area. The main impact of this will be an east to northeast flow today shifting more towards the southeast for mid to late week, moderating temperatures as well. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be expected each afternoon and evening, mainly over inland areas as a sea breeze progresses inland. This flow regime will keep RH values well above critical daily, along with dispersions in the fair to good range.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: No fog expected until Monday night with patchy fog potential each morning thereafter through late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 52 79 58 83 / 10 20 0 30 SSI 60 73 62 75 / 10 20 0 20 JAX 58 79 61 82 / 20 30 0 30 SGJ 61 76 63 78 / 20 30 10 40 GNV 58 83 60 85 / 10 40 0 50 OCF 60 84 62 85 / 20 50 0 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ472-474.