textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near Record High Temperatures Thursday

- Red Flag Warning for Locations East of U.S.-301 on Thurs Afternoon & Evening. Gusty Southwesterly Winds, Critically Low Humidity & Ongoing Drought Conditions

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon & Evening. Main Impact Area: Locations Along and North of the I-10 Corridor. Main Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Isolated Tornadoes

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms from Friday Afternoon through Monday

UPDATE

Made some adjustments to the current weather parameters, and included areas of smoke that is from the South Canal Fire in Lafayette county. Ash fall was reported in the Lake City area from this fire. No significant change was made to the patchy fog for the western zones, but may be a bit overdone given the winds above the surface will be a little breezy for fog formation. May be more stratus than fog. For Thursday, after adjusting for winds, wind gusts, and RH, made an upgrade to the fire weather watch for Thursday given sufficient confidence on meeting criteria in some areas.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Very Warm Temperatures This afternoon

- Fire Danger remains high in the breezy southerly flow

Rest of this afternoon: Mostly sunny and dry with above normal temps pushing into the lower 90s inland and 80s along the Atlantic beaches. Breezy SW flow around 15G20-25 mph will become SE along the Atlantic Coast as the sea breeze pushes into the I-95/US-17 corridors. These above normal temps and breezy winds this afternoon and evening will keep fire danger at high levels.

Tonight: High pressure ridge axis will get shunted southward ahead of approaching frontal boundary across the SE US states. This will lead to a slow increase in high clouds along with light SW winds at 5-10 mph which will keep Min temps elevated, only falling into the mid/upper 60s inland and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast. Some patchy fog will be possible along the I-75 corridor/Suwannee Valley during the overnight hours in the more moist flow off the NE Gulf. Across far inland SE GA...some pre-frontal showers and/or isolated storm activity may push into local areas to the NW of Waycross towards sunrise, but confidence/timing in this occurrence still remains on the low to moderate side.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday, with greatest chance north of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine

A cold front will move southeast across SE GA Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms and are expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. The storm chances will decrease Thursday evening, as the front moves into NE FL, as better energy is north near the surface low.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will be well above average, with highs over NE FL in the lower to mid 90s. North of the front highs in the 80s will be more common Thursday.

The front will move into central FL Thursday night as high pressure builds to the north. This front will waver north around the FL/GA line Friday and Friday night, providing a focus for additional convection. Temperatures Thursday night through Friday night will vary widely from north to south due to the location of the front.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Unsettled weather pattern with rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend into early next week

The stalled front will linger near the FL/GA line over the weekend, continuing to be a focus for showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front will move southeast across the area early in the week. High pressure will build behind this front, bringing more settled weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will trend a little below normal following the front Tuesday, otherwise above seasonal readings are expected this period.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

VFR prevails into Thursday with only a few cumulus and high clouds through about 17z-18z Thursday. There could be some low stratus near GNV between 09z-13z Thursday that will probably show in TAF with a scattered deck of about 500 ft. After 18z Thursday, pre- frontal convection is anticipated, first affecting SSI near 19z and then JAX metro TAFs thereafter. Likely to have PROB30 or TEMPO group for SSI and JAX for Thursday afternoon and may eventually have a VCSH or VCTS for rest of the TAFs. For sfc winds, south- southeast 8-12 kt for SSI, CRG, JAX, SGJ, and VQQ through 05z-06z tonight and become southwest 5 kt or so through 12z. Southwest winds will pick up to 12-16G25kt after 13z Thursday. For GNV, southwest to west winds near 10 kt until 04z Thursday, then become light, and picks up to 12-16G25kt after 13z Thursday.

MARINE

A cold front will enter the southeastern states tonight and expect southerly winds with speeds to Caution levels through tonight. Breezy southwesterly winds expected across our local waters through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late Thursday afternoon through early Thursday evening ahead of this front, with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible, mainly across the Georgia waters. This front will slow its forward progress on Friday morning and will then stall by Friday evening across the northeast Florida waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Friday afternoon through the weekend, with another round of strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon and evening, well in advance of another cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. This front will sweep southeastward across our local waters on Monday.

Rip Currents:

Southeast winds will become breezy this afternoon, with these winds combining with a slowly fading easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. Breezy southwesterly winds will yield a low risk at area beaches on Thursday. Winds will shift to northeasterly on Friday, likely resulting in a moderate risk at area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Red Flag Warning for parts of northeast FL Thursday - Areas Of High Dispersions Thursday - Patchy High Dispersions Sunday, Monday And Tuesday

A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday to northern portions of the area. Well ahead of the front, hot and dry conditions are expected for portions of northeast and north central Florida with breezy winds and low relative humidity down as low as 27 percent. Breezy transport winds and high mixing heights will lead to high dispersions as well on Thursday.

This front will then stall, providing continued showers and thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Another cold front will move through early next week, bringing another round of showers and storms. High pressure will build toward the middle of next week ushering in a period of drier weather.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog is possible late tonight mainly across the I-75 corridor.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for:

Wed, May 6: JAX: 96/2012 CRG: 96/2012 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 95/2012

Thu, May 7: JAX: 94/1977 CRG: 94/1977 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 93/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 66 84 62 79 / 10 90 10 20 SSI 70 90 68 76 / 10 40 20 20 JAX 68 95 70 84 / 0 30 20 20 SGJ 69 97 72 84 / 0 0 10 20 GNV 66 93 72 91 / 0 0 20 30 OCF 66 91 72 91 / 0 0 10 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ024-038- 124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-233-237-325-333-425-433- 533-633. GA...None. MARINE...None.