textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues through Around Sunset this Evening at All Area Beaches.

- Patchy Fog Possible Early on Thursday Morning, Mainly Across Inland Portions of Southeast GA and Along the I-10 Corridor.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues at Area Beaches through Early this Evening.

- Patchy Fog Possible Early on Thursday Morning, Mainly Across Inland Portions of Southeast GA and Along the I-10 Corridor.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1012 millibars) situated near the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to coastal GA. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary was moving slowly southward across central FL. Otherwise, a cold front stretches from the Ohio Valley southwestward through the Tennessee Valley and the Ozarks, with this boundary moving southeastward. Aloft...the shortwave trough that impacted our region from Tuesday through Wednesday morning was now shifting offshore of the southeastern states. Otherwise, a potent shortwave trough that was traversing the eastern Great Lakes states was digging a longwave trough across the Ohio Valley and the Mid- Atlantic states. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deeper moisture remains in place over north central FL as well as along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL and southeast GA, where PWATs were around 1.5 inches. A drier air mass was beginning to advect into interior southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where PWATs were falling to the 1.3 - 1.4 inch range, with even drier air located upstream from our area. Wrap-around moisture on the western periphery of the departing shortwave trough and frontal wave was producing showers for locations along and east of U.S. Highway 301 corridor in southeast GA, with this activity occasionally migrating across Nassau and eastern Duval Counties. Showers were also developing along the Gulf coast sea breeze along the FL Nature Coast, with this activity moving across portions of north central FL. Temperatures at 18Z ranged from the mid 70s to the mid 80s, with dewpoints mostly in the 65-70 range.

Showers wrapping around the departing shortwave trough may continue along the I-95 and U.S.-301 corridors through around sunset this evening, in addition to activity moving inland across the I-75 corridor along the Gulf coast sea breeze in north central FL. Otherwise, deepening northwesterly flow, compliments of a longwave trough digging over the eastern U.S., will advect a drier air mass into our region overnight. This trough will also drive a dry cold front into the southeastern states overnight, with this boundary crossing southeast GA during the predawn hours and reaching the I-10 corridor towards sunrise on Thursday. Skies will gradually clear out overnight from northwest to southeast as the drier air mass advects into our area, dropping PWATs below 1 inch area-wide by sunrise. Strengthening subsidence and decoupling surface winds may allow for some patchy fog or low stratus clouds to develop during the predawn and early morning hours on Thursday across inland portions of southeast GA, where lows will fall to around 60. Lows elsewhere will drop to the low and mid 60s, while a developing northwesterly breeze after midnight keeps lows in the mid to upper 60s at coastal locations.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier conditions return behind a dry cold front.

- Warmer temperatures into the weekend.

Clearer skies settle over the area behind the passage of a dry cold front on Thursday. Northwesterly winds will usher in drier air into the region, bringing RHs values to near critical levels for interior locations of SE GA on Thursday, with near critical levels extending towards FL/GA state line on Friday. With drier air in place, chances of showers or storms will be limited through the the end of the week. With clearer skies on Thursday, temperatures will gradually warm up heading into the weekend. Daytime highs rise to the lower 80s across SE GA and the mid/upper 80s across NE FL on Thursday. Clear to Partly cloudy skies on Friday as highs continue to trend a bit higher across the region, with a few locations possibly reaching into the 90s along north central FL. By the evening hours, Lows will dip down into the mid 50s for SE GA and the upper 50s to lower 60s across NE FL on Thursday night. A bit warmer overnight Lows by Friday night, with most locations falling only into the 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

- Scattered afternoon showers along the sea breeze on Sunday and into next week.

Chances for showers and storms remain low on Saturday as the dry air from the past couple of days is steadily replaced with an influx of moisture from the Atlantic with the persistent SE onshore flow. PWAT values are expected to trend upward above 1.5" with scattered showers and isolated storms likely on Sunday afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes in, with coverage across inland locations increasing during the start of the new week. Warmer temperatures through the weekend as highs will trend to above normal for most locations, rising above the 90F mark for inland locations, with coastal locations in the 80s thanks to the onshore flow.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Periods of MVFR ceilings and light showers will remain possible at SSI and JAX through around 00Z. MVFR ceilings will prevail at VQQ and SGJ through around 01Z. IFR visibilities are expected overnight at VQQ. Northeasterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots will continue at SSI through around 00Z, followed by winds shifting to northerly and then northwesterly overnight, with speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots. Northwesterly surface winds elsewhere will remain sustained around 10 knots through around 00Z, followed by winds shifting to northerly and then westerly overnight, with speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots after 00Z. Northwesterly surface winds will increase to around 10 knots by 15Z Thursday.

MARINE

A weak wave of low pressure located near the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to coastal Georgia will shift eastward through tonight as a slow moving frontal boundary pushes south of the northeast Florida waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible through around sunset this evening across our local waters. Winds will shift to northwesterly later tonight, allowing seas to gradually subside. A dry cold front will then approach our region from the northwest on Thursday morning, followed by weak high pressure building over the southeastern states on Thursday night and Friday. This high pressure center will then shift offshore of the southeastern seaboard this weekend, with southeasterly winds gradually increasing and becoming breezy across our local waters through the early portions of next week, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

Rip Currents:

A high risk remains in effect this afternoon and evening for all area beaches, mainly due to elevated surf heights of 3-5 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches. Surf heights will diminish on Thursday, with a moderate risk anticipated at the northeast FL beaches, where breakers of 2-4 feet will persist. A low risk is possible at the southeast GA beaches on Thursday, where breaker heights will fall to around 2 feet or less. Breezy onshore winds developing on Friday afternoon will likely yield a lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. Prevailing east to southeasterly winds this weekend will likely keep a moderate risk in place at all area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Dispersions Area-Wide Thursday.

- Near Critically Low Daytime Humidity Vales Thursday and Friday over Inland Southeast GA.

Winds shift to become northwesterly behind the passage of a dry cold front tonight. Dry air will filter into the region, limiting chances of showers or storms into the upcoming weekend. With the drier air filtering in, near critical daytime minRH values will develop on Thursday and Friday afternoons for interior SE GA locations. High dispersions area-wide on Thursday afternoon behind the front, with further days of higher dispersions this weekend across inland locations west of the I-95 corridor. A return of afternoon showers on Sunday as overall wind flow shift to come from the southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 59 80 54 82 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 64 84 63 80 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 62 86 57 84 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 67 87 64 85 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 64 87 57 88 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 65 86 61 88 / 10 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...None.