textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday. Tuesday Morning: Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Tuesday Midday & Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards: Gusty 40-60 mph & Isolated Brief Tornadoes

- High Risk for Rip Currents Northeast FL Beaches Today, Moderate for southeast GA

- Small Craft Advisory Portions of Area Waters Tuesday

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA Wed & Thu Mornings

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A cold front is south of the area with a prevailing north to northeast flow. This is keeping temps chilly in southeast GA in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with 60s to around 70 for northeast FL. The front will start to move back north over the area this evening while a weak low pressure trough/low develops off the southeast GA coast and moves northeast. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will form near the western FL panhandle by 1 AM tonight, and tracks northeastward. The low will reach into the south central GA area by about 7 AM Tuesday, and by then the warm front will push up into southeast GA.

Mainly isolated shower activity over the area at this time. But, a small batch of showers has now moved into the FL Big Bend and Suwannee Valley, that will be headed through portions of southeast GA this aftn and around the I-10 corridor.

Overnight, a stronger cold front will approach from the west and we will see more numerous showers and possibly isolated isolated storm chances after midnight, especially for inland southeast Georgia and over the local waters. Higher storm coverage / strong storm potential will increase after daybreak. Temps tonight will drop back down into the 50s for southeast GA and Suwannee Valley and 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

The cold front will move southeast across the region during the day Tuesday. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front. A few strong thunderstorms are expected. Based on frontal timing, there will be a large range in temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the middle 60s over inland SE GA, to near 80 south of Gainesville.

The front will move off to the southeast Tuesday night, as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will build to the north Wednesday. Cold advection will a northerly flow will keep temperatures below normal Wednesday with high s about 10 degrees lower than Wednesday. Ridging will remain in place into Wednesday night, with lows dipping into the middle 30s over inland SE GA, and upper 30s to lower 40s over inland NE FL. The northerly flow down the coast, will keep temperatures a little milder at beachfront communities. Frost will be expected over inland SE GA Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High pressure ridging will weaken across the area Thursday, as another low begins to lift northeast out of the Gulf. This low will then track northeast across the southeastern US Friday into Friday night. The cold front associated with this low will track southeast into area Friday night, and may stall through Saturday night, before slowly moving to the south Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will build to the north Monday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be forecast from Friday through Sunday night.

Temperatures will be above normal through Saturday, then near to below Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Multilayered clouds over the region with more prevailing MVFR cigs and some IFR cigs developing for the coastal TAFs through the evening hours. Should be starting to get some MVFR cigs around GNV by this evening, probably near or after about 01z. Tonight and into Tuesday morning, all TAF sites should see MVFR to IFR ceilings as a strong cold front approaches. Rain chances come up to about 20-30 percent toward 12z, and then more numerous showers and possibly embedded isolated storms after 12z. Subsequent TAFs will be able to refine mention of TSRA if needed. LLWS is likely to develop for most of the Duval TAFs by around the 11z-15z time frame as 1-2 kft south-southwest winds increase to 35-40 kt.

MARINE

A frontal boundary south of the area will lift north across the area as a warm front late tonight, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf. As this low tracks northeast across the southeastern states, a cold front will move through Tuesday. A round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over portions of the area waters, beginning early Tuesday morning until Tuesday night. Another frontal system affects the area waters on Friday and Saturday increasing the chances of showers and higher winds again.

Rip Currents: For Today, high risk for northeast FL, and moderate for southeast GA. For Tuesday, moderate risk is posted.

FIRE WEATHER

A warm front will lift north across region through Tonight. A cold front will move southeast across the area Tuesday. As a result, Showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected Tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will build to the northwest Tuesday, and to the north Wednesday into Thursday. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the week, providing another chance for showers and storms from Friday through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 52 68 36 57 / 90 90 0 0 SSI 58 73 44 62 / 70 80 0 0 JAX 60 78 44 64 / 60 70 0 0 SGJ 63 80 52 67 / 40 50 0 0 GNV 61 79 48 68 / 50 70 0 0 OCF 62 78 52 68 / 40 60 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452- 454. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-474.