textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local NorEaster Conditions Through Thursday. Gale Force Winds Across the Coastal Waters Through Wednesday Night. Life Threatening Coastal Hazards through the End of the Week. Frequent, Strong Rip Currents and Rough Surf (up to 13 ft Wed/Thurs). Minor Beach Erosion Possible. Gusty Winds Along the NE FL Coast/St Johns River. Waves of Beneficial Rain For Coastal Northeast FL Through Wed Night

- High Fire Danger For Far Inland Southeast GA this Afternoon

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Isolated thunderstorms NE FL coast

- Elevated and Gusty winds, especially near the coast

- Red Flag Fire weather conditions Today inland NE FL

- High Surf and High Risk for Rip Currents

The region will be between an inverted trough to the south and strong high pressure to the north through Tonight. The gradient between these two weather features will result in elevated and gusty winds, especially at the coast. Weak troughs will develop in the onshore flow and move ashore this period, bringing shower potential. The overall coverage of the rain will shrink to focus more on coastal areas Tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy Conditions Wednesday and Breezy/Gusty Thursday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

Elevated onshore flow persists through the forecast period as high pressure continues to settle north of the region. We have extended the Wind Advisory through Wednesday afternoon as winds are expected to continue to increase and peak on Wednesday. Highest wind speeds will be along coastal locations, with gusts possibly reaching to 40 to 45 mph. Winds will begin to lessen on Thursday, but will still have breezy northeasterly winds with the high pressure moving more towards the Atlantic. Showers will persist on Wednesday mainly over NE FL, with a few embedded storms possible along the north central FL counties. By Thursday, most shower activity will shift further towards our southern locations of NE FL as these areas will have the highest amounts of moisture aloft thanks to the continuing onshore flow.

Daytime highs in the upper 60s to 70s through the forecast period, with temperatures increasing slightly on Thursday as onshore flow continues, but eases up from peak speeds of Wednesday. Overnight Lows in the 50s across SE GA and lower 60s across NE FL.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy onshore winds Friday - Warming temperatures and sunny conditions this weekend

Shower chances will begin to lessen as the weekend nears, but onshore flow will continue as high pressure again sets up north of the area before shifting towards the Atlantic. While breezy at times, winds aren't expected to be as elevated as during the middle of the week. Temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend, with upper 70s to mid 80s across the area, warmer temperatures away from the coast as onshore flow keeps coastal locations relatively cooler.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Winds will remain elevated and gusty this period, especially near the coast.

Restrictions in stratus and rain will be possibly at times, especially early in this period.

MARINE

High pressure ridging down the southeastern seaboard will be reinforced this morning, with strong onshore winds then continuing through the week and intensifying to Gale Force today through Wednesday night. The strong winds with a long fetch will build seas to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves away before much improved conditions developing this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life- threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough surf.

FIRE WEATHER

RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS - Of Inland Southeast Ga

NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA WEDNESDAY - And Windy Conditions Areawide

HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS FOR INLAND SE GA TODAY BECOMING - Widespread On Wednesday

Substantial, long duration wind event will begin today with the windiest conditions along the northeast FL coast where a Wind Advisory is in effect Today for gusts up to 40 mph. For inland southeast GA, Red Flag conditions are expected as dry air, breezy winds, and high dispersions will align this afternoon. Elsewhere, higher humidity is expected. Stronger high pressure will build from the north Wednesday, increasing winds further and allowing afternoon gusts to reach 35-40 mph inland. Despite humidity values above critical, windy conditions will influence any existing or new ignition. Waves of light rain are expected through Wednesday but accumulating rainfall will generally be less than half an inch and focus mostly across northeast FL. Winds will finally begin to relax Friday into the weekend as temperatures trend warmer and humidity lower.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 52 72 50 76 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 60 67 58 70 / 20 30 30 20 JAX 60 71 58 73 / 30 50 30 30 SGJ 63 71 63 73 / 60 70 60 50 GNV 58 73 58 77 / 20 60 30 30 OCF 60 74 61 77 / 30 70 40 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ038-124-125-138- 233-325-333-433-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>135- 149. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470- 472-474.