textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches this Weekend. Moderate Risk at Southeast GA beaches

- Patchy Dense Fog Possible Sunday and Monday Mornings at. Local visibility of 1/4 mile possible at times

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Areas of dense fog possible this morning and again late tonight

- Elevated risk of rip currents at local beaches

Weak high pressure will settle to the NE of the local area, while a coastal trough will set up over the NE FL coastal waters. Mostly dry conditions are expected, except for the development of scattered showers over the NE FL offshore coastal waters closer to the trough axis through tonight. A brief surge of breezy Northeast winds is expected to develop today along the NE FL/SE GA coastal areas and along the I-95 corridor with NE winds increasing to 15G25 mph late this morning and continuing this afternoon, before fading around sunset. Temps will remain slightly above normal with highs near 80F over inland areas, while the onshore flow will keep the Atlantic Coastal areas with highs in the 70s. Overnight lows will remain cooler over inland areas with upper 40s/lower 50s over inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley of inland North FL, with mid/upper 50s elsewhere except for lower 60s along the Atlantic beaches.

Main weather impact in the near term will be the potential for low cloud and dense fog development over inland areas, both this morning and again late tonight. Dense fog advisories may be required, with best chances for late tonight/early Monday morning over inland areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected.

Dry weather conditions with partly cloudy skies will persist through the beginning of the week with prevailing flow shifting to become more out of the southwest before midweek as high pressure ridging to the north moves off to the northeast. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the into the mid to upper 40s for southeast Georgia and in the upper and lower to mid 50s for northeast Florida, with min temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy conditions through end the week.

- Chilly conditions develop next weekend.

Chances for showers will increase on Thursday, ahead of the advancing cold front pressing in from out of the northwest. PWAT values will rise slightly prior to the frontal passage as more moist air from out of the gulf advects in, however lingering drier air over the area is expected to inhibit convective developments with isolated to scattered showers being more likely over northeast Florida. Breezy northwesterly winds will persist through the end of the week, with winds becoming more mild following the fropa. Clearing skies and dry weather will be in place by the weekend as high pressure and cold dry air settles in over the forecast area. Temperatures will be near and slightly above the seasonal average for midweek, dropping to be below average by the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Overall, VFR conditions are expected, with some low potential for MVFR to IFR visibilities at the inland sites (VQQ and GNV), but also at SSI along the SE GA coast in the early morning hours. Winds will remain calm overnight, picking up to the 5-10 knot range after sunrise Sunday. Guidance is suggesting better chances for possible LIFR conditions setting up for late Sunday Night/Monday morning in the 06-12Z Monday time frame, mainly for the inland TAF sites of JAX/GNV/VQQ.

MARINE

Winds will become light northeasterly this morning before high pressure building eastward in to the Carolinas elevates northeast winds to near caution levels this afternoon. Seas will also remain elevated, but just below Caution levels for the offshore waters through Monday. High pressure will then weaken over the southeastern states by Tuesday, allowing winds and seas to subside. Strong cold frontal passage on Thursday will bring offshore flow and Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will continue on Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents:

High risk of Rip Currents Today for northeast Florida beaches, with moderate risk for southeast Georgia beaches due to lingering long period swells impacting the local beaches along with onshore flow. Light winds and decreasing swells will keep Moderate Risk of Rips at both NE FL/SE GA beaches on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

LOW MIN RH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S INLAND SOUTHEAST GA - Monday Afternoon And Tuesday Afternoon

Conditions will trend drier through the weekend and into early next week with light to breezy northwesterly winds today gradually veering northeasterly through Sunday. Due to the lighter winds - both at the surface and the transport wind - poor dispersions are likely for the next several days. Though afternoon humidities will trend lower Monday and Tuesday, critical humidity is unlikely through the next week. After a brief rebound in temperatures and humidity through the middle of next week, another strong cold front will push through the area Friday bringing chilly conditions and breezy winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Initially patchy fog forming overnight and becoming more dense by the early morning hours today and Monday, with areas of dense fog expected to be more widespread on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 78 49 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 74 58 76 55 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 79 56 79 52 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 79 61 77 59 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 82 56 81 54 / 10 10 0 0 OCF 81 56 81 56 / 10 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.