textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Thru Sunday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Night

- Small Craft Advisories Today through Monday Night

- Widespread Inland Freezes likely Monday Night through Wednesday Night

- Severe Drought Conditions Expanding Across our Region

UPDATE

No major updates needed on the forecast this evening. Gusty winds will begin to weaken over the next few hours as the warm front lifts northward, leaving the opportunity for fog to develop over most of the area. Locally dense fog will be possible over portions of northeast Florida in the early morning hours, with models leaning towards I-75 eastward. Dense fog advisories may be required for portions of NE FL and for the nearshore NE FL Atlantic Coastal waters by the overnight hours. Low temperatures will be in the mid 40s to near 60 degrees tonight, before a very warm Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A warm front lifts northward across the area Sunday morning as a cold front approaches from the northwest, shifting through the area on Sunday night to Monday morning. Southerly to southwesterly winds become established behind the warm front on Sunday allowing for warmer air to filter into the area leading to near record warm temperatures for locations across NE FL. Daytime highs are expected to reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s across NE FL, with the warmest temperatures across north central FL, while daytime highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s across SE GA. Showers begin to filter into SE GA during the late afternoon hours ahead of the approaching cold front. In addition to numerous to widespread during the overnight hours, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible as the front pushes across the area. With any storms that do develop, main hazards will damaging wind gusts and potentially a brief tornado along the far interior of SE GA.

The last of the remaining showers push offshore during the morning hours on Monday. Behind the cold front, breezy northwesterly winds will begin to bring much colder and drier air into the area. Cool daytime highs in the lower to upper 50s across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region in NE FL, while northeast and north central FL will be in the 60s, some locations may push into the lower 70s along Palm Coast. By the evening hours, sub-freezing temperatures make a return to the area as Lows plunge down into the 20s. The cooler temperatures and relatively windy conditions will bring wind chills down into the teens across SE GA and southwards towards portions of northeast, with north central FL and coastal locations having wind chills in the lower 20s, with a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure will park itself over the SE CONUS during much of the upcoming week. Colder and drier air over the area will bring a span of days in which daytime highs only reach into the upper 40s to mid 50s. In addition to the colder afternoons, we will also have a span of nights with overnight lows dipping to sub-freezing temperatures, with widespread inland freezes likely each night. The low temperatures in addition to winds each night may be enough to warrant a need for some Cold Weather Advisories, as wind chills dip to criteria levels.

Looking to next weekend, guidance continues to show a low pressure system developing across the Gulf and pushing across the FL peninsula. With the latest 12Z run, models suggest a mostly dry passing across our local area on Saturday. As always, we will keep an eye for better model consistency.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Low stratus has mostly broken apart early this afternoon with a mix of VFR conds and occasional MVFR CIGS at times in the gusty NE flow at the regional terminals. These conds will hold in place for a few hours before the NE winds weaken towards sunset with a return to IFR CIGS in the 00-03Z time frame, then as the warm front lifts north across the regional terminals, expect further reductions to LIFR conds at all TAF sites in the 03-06Z time range, with another night of high confidence in LIFR CIGS, but lower to moderate confidence in the VSBYS with best chances for LIFR VSBYS at GNV/SGJ and IFR VSBYS at CRG/JAX/VQQ and MVFR VSBYS at SSI during the overnight hours between 06Z-14Z. As the warm front lifts north of the regional terminals late in the 18Z TAF period, expect a return to IFR conds in the 14-16Z time frame and MVFR conds in the 16-18Z time frame as south winds start to slowly increase to 10-15 knots by the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Surge of Northeast Winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions this evening will slowly weaken as a warm front lifts northward through the local waters late tonight, then southerly flow increases on Sunday. Strong cold frontal passage Sunday Night with a few strong and gusty thunderstorms expected. Very cold Northwest flow and Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on Monday, which will weaken slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday, before another strong Arctic cold front pushes through the local waters on Thursday with Small Craft Advisory conditions once again.

Rip Currents: Have extended the High Risk of Rip currents through Sunday due to the lingering 3-6 ft surf even though the winds shift to the South, also the warmer air temps on Sunday at the NE FL/SE GA beaches may attract some folks to even venture into the water.

FIRE WEATHER

Light to breezy northeasterly winds continue through this evening, with a slight chance of showers along coastal locations. Winds shift to become easterly, then southerly- southwesterly by Sunday afternoon as a warm front lifts north through the area. Warmer temperatures on Sunday as daytime highs reach into the mid 70s to mid 80s. Areas of High dispersions develop by Sunday afternoon along north central FL and the I-10 corridor in northeast FL as breezy surface winds develop. A cold front will begin to move across the area Sunday night, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be strong Sunday evening, especially across interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley.

Patchy high dispersion expected Monday across southeast Georgia with a breezy northwest flow behind the front. A much colder and drier airmass will settle into the region early next week and persist through midweek.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog and low stratus are expected tonight across north central FL. Frost and freeze potential returns early next week.

CLIMATE

Near Record Highs Sunday, January 25...

Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred.

Record High Temperatures:

January 25: KJAX: 83/2023 KGNV: 85/1950 KCRG: 81/2024

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 46 74 40 52 / 10 20 90 10 SSI 51 72 47 60 / 20 0 80 10 JAX 54 81 51 65 / 10 0 60 10 SGJ 57 81 56 68 / 20 0 50 10 GNV 57 83 53 67 / 10 0 80 10 OCF 59 84 58 67 / 10 0 70 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ450-452. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ474.