textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Windy Conditions | Hazardous Marine, Coastal, Surf Conditions Today. Wind Advisory for 40-45 mph Gusts for Coastal Areas & Inland Locations South of I-10. Gale Warning for All Atlantic Waters through Sunday Morning. High Risk for Rip Currents & High Surf at All Area Beaches Beginning this Afternoon

- Red Flag Warning for Portions of Inland Southeast GA Today. Minimum Relative Humidity: 25% & Wind 15-20 mph with Gusts up to 30 mph. Elevated Fire Danger Elsewhere Due to Gusty Winds and Very Dry Fuels

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

Strong high pressure will continue to build from the north northeast through night. An inverted trough over the coastal waters, will help to enhance the pressure gradient to keep winds elevated over the region, and provide convergence for a few showers over mainly NE FL.

Lows will range from the middle 40s over SE GA, to the mid to upper 50s NE FL.

SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights Sunday - Monday Night:

- Rough Surf and Rip Currents. - Isolated to Widely Scattered Showers NE FL Monday Afternoon

Frontal zone will stall to the south through Sunday as prevailing flow shifts easterly as low level and surface ridging moves toward Bermuda. A weak coastal trough will develop through Sunday increasing rain chances over the adjacent coastal Atlantic waters, mainly Sunday evening into Monday. The onshore flow may send some of these showers into the coastal zones through Monday morning. By Monday afternoon, marginal instability building across NE FL may promote a few thunderstorms inland close to or west of I-75 but will hinge on how far the gulf breeze can push against the easterly flow. Otherwise scattered diurnal showers will be possible, mainly across NE FL during the afternoon hours Monday.

After a cool Sunday, slightly below normal readings in the low to mid 70s will trend warmer Monday and rise back into the upper 70s and low 80s inland. With enough boundary layer winds overnight, Sunday into Monday will keep fog from developing but lighter to calm conditions Monday night will lead to better fog chances during the early hours Tuesday AM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights Tuesday - Friday:

- Mainly Dry weather and warming trend - Nightly Fog, Possibly Dense - Slight Chance of Inland Thunderstorms Friday

The pattern transitions back to an early summer-esk one as persistent lower level ridging influences the region from the midweek onward into the next weekend. Initially the ridge axis will lay across the area and then lift northward leading to prolonged warming southeasterly flow which will deepen into the mid levels as ridging builds aloft.

As ridging stacks up offshore, rising heights will lead to a warming trend through the middle and end of the upcoming work week with day- over-day highs rising through the 80s and possibly reaching near 90 degrees inland by Friday afternoon. The onshore flow will lead to a dominant Atlantic sea breeze which should promote scattered showers as it pushes inland amid seasonally high moisture with PWATs around 1.25-1.4 inches (equating to the 75th-90th percentile). Despite the moisture, mid level subsidence/warming should keep rain chances below a mentionable level, favoring dry conditions, until low to medium grade instability develops Friday, fostering isolated to widely scattered late afternoon thunderstorms for inland areas.

Otherwise, the moisture advection and calm conditions will lead to nightly fog episodes. Sea fog is becoming less of concern, given the time of year, as sea surface temps rise to the mid 60s to near 70.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Winds will be elevated and gusty throughout this period. Gusts will subside somewhat overnight. Conditions will trend to VFR Tonight, and remain at VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE

Surge of northeast gale force winds and very rough seas will continue through tonight. Coastal troughing will also take shape over the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida, generating scattered showers that will persist into Sunday. Strong high pressure will continue its southeastward progress tonight, with this feature shifting off the Carolina coast near the Outer Banks by early Sunday afternoon. Winds will shift to easterly towards sunrise on Sunday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing through Sunday night and Monday across our local waters. Coastal troughing will dissipate by Tuesday as Atlantic high pressure extends its axis westward across the southeastern states, with breezy southeasterly winds expected to continue through late next week, maintaining elevated seas across the offshore waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Life threatening surf conditions will continue into Sunday due to the surge of northeasterly winds. A High Surf Advisory will be in effect through the weekend as breakers build to 8-10 feet at the northeast FL beaches by tonight and Sunday. Breakers will build to the 6-8 foot range at the southeast GA beaches. Dangerous rip currents will be present, and there will be a significant risk for anyone who ventures into the surf zone through Monday. Surf will only gradually diminish next week as breezy onshore winds prevail.

Minor tidal flooding and beach erosion may be possible during the Sunday morning high tide cycle along our local Atlantic coast, but so far the latest storm surge guidance (PETSS) is keeping peak high tide water levels at Action stage (water levels just below 2 ft MHHW)

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Each Day Through Tuesday

Windy, dry cool front pushed across the region this morning and significant northeast winds are expected to persist through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Wind gusts between 40-50 mph are possible for many districts, specifically where the current Wind Advisory exists (expanded to Ocala NF).

Humidity will stay above critical beneath thick stratus across northeast FL while sunnier and drier air moving into inland areas of southeast GA (northwest of Waycross) will lead to a brief period of critical weather amid the volatile, drought-stricken fuel loads during 1500-1900 hours this afternoon. Given the winds, new and existing fires across the landscape are likely to be erratic in how they behave.

Breezy easterly winds will continue through Sunday and are likely to be close to critical once again with gusts up to 20 mph for all areas. Winds will gradually relax through the early part of the week as high pressure anchors across the region throughout next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorm potential Monday, Tuesday and potentially Friday. No fog expected until Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 47 72 54 79 / 0 0 0 20 SSI 55 69 61 72 / 10 0 10 20 JAX 56 73 58 79 / 20 10 10 30 SGJ 59 71 62 76 / 30 10 20 30 GNV 57 77 59 82 / 20 10 10 50 OCF 59 77 61 82 / 20 10 10 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ024-030-031- 038-124-125-132-136>138-140-225-232-233-236-237-240-325- 333-340-425-433-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ153-154-165- 166. High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for GAZ154-166. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>135- 149. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472- 474. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ472-474.