textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Today. Isolated Severe Storms Possible for Inland Southeast GA and Suwannee Valley This Morning with Wind Gusts 40-60 mph. Strong Storms are Possible Elsewhere with Frequent Lightning, Wind Gusts of 30-50 mph & Small Hail. Beneficial Rainfall Expected Area-Wide (0.25 - 1 Inch with Locally Higher Totals Possible)

- Gale Warnings & Small Craft Advisories This Afternoon through Friday Morning

- High Risk of Rip Currents Friday at All Area Beaches

- Beneficial Rainfall and Strong Storms Possible on Sunday and Monday

- Frost Possible for Inland Southeast GA on Tuesday Night & Early Wednesday Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy/Areas of fog are possible early This morning, mainly along and west of the Interstate 75 corridor.

- Potential for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms Today, mainly across far inland southeast GA.

High level cirrus and few mid level clouds are shifting off to the northeast as low stratus spreads east northeast across highway 301 across inland Northeast Florida and inland SE GA with only patchy fog observed due to winds elevated above the surface. Expecting more low level clouds to spread across the area as a cold front, currently stretching from the mouth of the MS river to central AL into northern GA, approaches from the west. Ahead of the cold front is an organized line of heavy showers and isolated strong to severe T'storms. These storms will continue moving eastward through the early morning hours towards the western tier of SE GA counties, then move into western areas an hour or two after sunrise (8-9AM). Southwest winds will slowly increase to 10-15 mph as the pressure gradient between the front and high pressure to the southeast increases steadily towards sunrise. Temperatures will hold in the mid to upper 60s as clouds and moisture increase early this morning.

The organized line of showers and T'storms will march through SE GA and into the Suwannee Valley of NE FL during the late morning hours and reach the SE GA coast and in to the I-75 corridor by the lunch hour before the line pushes towards the I-95 corridor by the early afternoon hours. The storm prediction center has a marginal risk of Severe T'storms for inland SE GA along and west of US highway 1 and for the Suwannee Valley of Northeast Florida. This is where the line will still feature enough organization due to strong dynamics aloft, 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, and surface CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg along with a potent low level 850 mb jet of 40-45 knots that will support potential for isolated Severe T'storms to be briefly produced. The main threat will be wind gusts of 40-60 mph, small hail, and heavy downpours as the line moves through. The storms will weaken as they progress to the SE GA coast and areas east of I-75 across NE FL as mostly cloudy skies limit additional surface instability and mid level lapse rates remain less supportive of severe T'storm potential. Localized heavy rainfall potential is 1-3 inches where the storms and heavier showers move through, but overall rainfall amounts will be between 0.25-1.00 inch.

Highs will be cooler today due to the clouds only in the mid 70s over inland SE GA and warmest south of Jacksonville along I-95 into the mid 80s into the southern St Johns river basin. Winds will be very breezy outside of T'storms 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph before the line moves through, but remaining below wind advisory levels.

Tonight, clear skies expected inland as high pressure builds to the north over the southern appalachians into the Carolinas with northerly winds turning more north northeasterly and staying breezy along the coast and I-95 corridor of NE FL 10-20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. A coastal trough forming over the waters will bring in some low level clouds off the Atlantic onto the NE FL coast to the St Johns river. Much cooler conditions expected over SE GA with lows down to the upper 30s NW of Waycross, 40s over inland NE FL along and north of the Santa Fe river and along I-10 with low to mid 50s along the coast and north central FL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

High pressure over the region on Friday will quickly retreat into the western Atlantic as an inverted trough develops along our local Atlantic coast. Slightly cooler and drier air advects in for the end of the work week with highs in the low 70s north to low 80s south. A few coastal showers may shift onshore to areas south of St. Augustine Friday afternoon. Weak frontal boundary over south FL begins to lift northward up the peninsula on Saturday as warm, moist SE flow develops. In the ESE surface flow, highs on Saturday will range from the low-mid 70s along the coast to the low-mid 80s further inland. Showers with isolated thunderstorms expand across NE FL mainly south of I-10 Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Increased Thunderstorm Chances Sunday into Monday

Frontal boundary over central FL continues to lift as a warm front on Sunday as flow shifts to SW ahead of a strong cold front entering the SE US. Increasing moisture to the area will lead to numerous showers and storms developing area-wide Sunday and continuing into Monday night as the cold front moves through. Above seasonable temperatures Sunday and Monday expected due to the warm SW flow. A much colder airmass advects into the region behind the front Monday night dropping temperatures to below seasonable through midweek next week. Overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are anticipated to drop into the mid 30s for inland SE GA and, combined with light winds, could bring a chance for frost.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Low stratus will spread across the NE FL terminals over the next few hours from GNV into the duval county terminals by 10Z, then SSI, CRG, and SGJ by 11-12Z bringing prevailing MVFR/IFR ceiling restrictions. Light southwest winds will increase to 10-15 knots from 10-14Z as a line of organized heavy showers and T'storms march east into the TAF sites by 16Z. Have PROB30 groups for MVFR restrictions and gusty winds up to 30 knots, which may need to be tweaked higher if stronger storms hold together a little longer, from 16-20Z with VCTS at GNV after 15Z. Winds will maximize around 15-20 knots this afternoon ahead of the line with gusts to 25 knots. Some low end MVFR ceilings will lag behind the line with VCSH before clearing and drier air filter into the area with VFR conditions after 22Z at all sites and breezy northerly winds 12-15 knots gusting to 20 knots trending north northeasterly by the end of the TAF period 00-06Z.

MARINE

Southerly winds remain elevated ahead of an approaching cold front, creating Caution conditions throughout our local waters. Winds may subside slightly through early this morning before increasing winds from the south southwest into late this morning ahead of a line of strong thunderstorms approaching from the west. Showers and storms will impact our local waters during the early to mid afternoon hours, with a few stronger storms possible that could produce gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes. Winds will shift to westerly during the frontal passage before increasing northwest winds arrive this afternoon to small craft advisory levels followed by Gale conditions early this evening into early Friday as winds turn more north northeasterly as high pressure builds to the north. Winds and seas will remain elevated into Friday morning before subsiding Friday afternoon as high pressure shifts to the northeast. As the high moves away, a warm front will slowly lift northward along the Florida peninsula. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase from south to north late Saturday night through Sunday night as this warm front moves across our area. A strong cold front will move through our area Monday, with southwest winds increasing and becoming northwesterly behind the front with small craft advisory conditions returning to the waters through Tuesday.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk expected on Today due to offshore flow and generally weak easterly swells. Strong onshore flow Friday will bring a high risk of rip currents to all area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Today And This Weekend

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through beginning this morning and continue into the afternoon/evening hours. An isolated strong thunderstorm will be possible with this line mainly in the morning hours in inland southeast GA. Southwesterly winds increase today ahead of the front resulting in areas of high dispersions across northeast Florida mainly along the St Johns river basin. Breezy northwesterly winds develop in the wake of the front this afternoon resulting in high dispersions across inland southeast Georgia. Friday into Saturday, high pressure will build just north of the region as the cold front exits to the south with drier conditions. Good dispersions on Friday. Min RHs will drop to 35-40 percent over inland portions of Southeast Georgia on Saturday. Temperatures inland warm back into the 80s on Saturday resulting in elevated mixing heights and potentially high dispersions. South- southwesterly winds increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front resulting in more area-wide high dispersions. Numerous showers and storms develop on Sunday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog near the I-75 corridor is possible this morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 74 39 72 46 / 90 0 0 0 SSI 76 51 69 56 / 90 0 0 0 JAX 81 49 75 53 / 90 10 10 0 SGJ 83 55 74 59 / 90 20 10 10 GNV 81 49 80 55 / 90 10 10 0 OCF 82 53 82 58 / 80 20 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450- 452. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Friday for AMZ454. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ470- 472. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Friday for AMZ474.