textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Sea Fog Expands Inland this Evening & Overnight Tonight. Dense Fog Advisories Likely for Coastal Areas Early this Evening. Dense Fog Advisories Likely for Inland Areas Late Tonight & Wednesday Morning. Areas of Dense Fog Likely Each Night & Morning through the Upcoming Weekend

- Breezy Onshore Winds Continue into the Weekend. Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches through Wednesday. Elevated Surf & High Risk for Rip Currents Likely Beginning on Thursday

- Record High Temperatures Possible Thursday through Sunday

UPDATE

Cool northeast onshore flow has brought in low stratus and some sea fog along the coast encroaching towards I-95 early this evening, but the dense fog has stay along and just offshore with visibility only around 1 mile east over coastal portions of NE FL and SE GA with a few locally lower visibilities. Have a special weather statement in effect through 10PM for the fog which persists, but has not expanded much west of I-95 at this hour as enough winds above the surface around 15 knots noted on the 00Z sounding has kept widespread dense fog from forming just yet. As winds become lighter overnight do expect a gradual expansion of dense fog as midnight approaches across I-95 to US-17 that will press towards highway 301 after midnight and then push westward to the Suwannee Valley and I-75 areas in the predawn early morning hours over NE FL and to US 441 in SE GA which will likely prompt a Dense Fog advisory later this evening.

Current temperatures along the coast in the mid 50s to upper 50s will hold, but fall inland to the low 50s over SE GA and to the upper 50s over inland NE FL. Light NE winds will become more northerly along the coast around 5-10 mph and variable to near calm inland.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:

- Sea fog persists along the southeast Georgia coast this afternoon then and spreads inland early this evening

- Dense fog expands inland across the I-95 corridor later this evening and potentially covers most of our region by sunrise on Wednesday

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1042 millibars) centered to the east of Nova Scotia, with this feature continuing to wedge down the U.S. eastern seaboard and into the Deep South. Meanwhile, a weak coastal trough remains situated over the near shore Atlantic waters adjacent to northeast FL. Aloft...ridging centered over the eastern Gulf was slowly expanding northeastward towards our area, while a potent shortwave trough was digging southeastward across the Rockies. Low stratus ceilings remain locked in by the wedge of cool, moist maritime air along the I-95 corridor to the north of Jacksonville, as well as for interior locations north of Waycross in southeast GA. Temperatures and dewpoints remain around 60 for locations stuck beneath the low stratus cloud cover, while a healthy cumulus and stratocumulus cloud field has developed elsewhere, allowing temperatures to quickly climb through the 60s and 70s, with locations in north central FL already approaching 80 degrees. Dewpoints were mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s as of 18Z.

Latest short-term, high resolution guidance indicates a gradual erosion of the stratus cloud layer this afternoon for locations north of Waycross in interior southeast GA, while locations along and east of I-95 from Nassau County, FL northward likely remain stuck beneath the stratus deck. Sea fog over the near shore waters and portions of coastal southeast GA will begin to advect back inland late this afternoon, likely expanding across the I-95 corridor north of Jacksonville and also along the rest of the northeast FL coast towards or just after sunset this evening. Highs will likely remain in the lower 60s this afternoon for coastal southeast GA and coastal Nassau County, FL. Breezy onshore winds should keep coastal highs for areas south of Fernandina Beach in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Otherwise, clearing skies, rising heights aloft, and an easterly breeze will allow highs to climb into the 70s for most of inland southeast GA and northeast FL to the lower 80s for the Suwannee Valley and north central FL.

Sea fog is expected to expand inland and across the Interstate 95 corridor in northeast FL during the early evening hours, with low stratus cloud cover and areas to widespread dense fog expected to progress to most inland locations by sunrise on Wednesday. Lows will generally fall to the 50s inland, ranging to around 60 for portions of north central and coastal northeast FL.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Nightly Fog, Possibly Locally Dense

Temperatures will remain above average Wednesday and Thursday, with inland highs reaching the lower to mid 80s. Onshore breeze will keep highs closer to the beaches in the 70s. Increasing dew points across the waters may lead to a continuation of sea fog formation and possible coastal fog each day as sea fog sloshes with the onshore flow. While inland fog will generally begin clearing after sunrise Wednesday, fog near the coast and over the local Atlantic waters may linger into the afternoon. With southeast flow Thursday, showers will spread inland across portions of northeast Florida, with the highest chances (30-40%) over north central Florida in the afternoon and evening.

Near record highs are forecast Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Weather Highlights:

- Record High Temperatures possible Friday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered shower potential will be more widespread Friday through Monday across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia as southeasterly steering flow continues to bring in decent moisture. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening over north central Florida and the I-75 corridor, thunder chances are generally low this weekend due to drier air aloft.

Near record highs are forecast for Friday through Monday for most locations, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s inland, with cooler temps along the coast as onshore winds persist.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Sea fog and low stratus already creating IFR/LIFR conditions at JAX/SSI/CRG/SGJ will move inland to VQQ and GNV by 03-07Z late this evening. Sea fog and fog will become widespread and dense over along the coast over the next few hours as the northeast flow around 10 knots lightens a bit to 5-8 knots with inland sites lightening from around 5 knots to near calm after 03-06Z.

Fog and low stratus will improve Wednesday morning first at the inland sites 13-14Z to IFR levels, then MVFR by 15Z, and VFR levels by 17Z. Coastal sites will recover to IFR ceilings by 15Z just below 1.0 kft, then MVFR by 18Z with ceilings near 1.5 kft with little improvement to VFR through the end of the 00Z TAF period despite breezy east northeast winds 10-12 knots across the area.

MARINE

Dense sea fog will continue through Wednesday morning across the southeast Georgia waters and also for the near shore waters south to Flagler Beach tonight through the morning hours on Wednesday. A coastal trough will otherwise remain located over local waters as strong high pressure centered off the New England coast wedges down the southeastern seaboard this afternoon, creating breezy onshore winds. Elevated seas will persist for the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida during the next few days. Atlantic high pressure will then become centered near Bermuda by Wednesday afternoon, creating prevailing southeasterly winds later this week through the weekend. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible beginning on Thursday, especially across the northeast Florida waters.

Rip Currents: Breezy northeasterly winds and breakers of 3-4 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches will create a higher end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches this afternoon and on Wednesday. Persistent and breezy onshore winds and gradually building surf will likely result in a high risk of rip currents at the northeast FL beaches on Thursday and Friday, with a higher end moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches. An elevated rip current risk will continue through the weekend and into early next week at area beaches as persistent southeasterly winds prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures trend warmer through the rest of the week and remain near record high levels through the weekend. Humidity will remain well above critical levels through the weekend as moderate afternoon sea breezes spread moisture inland. Scattered showers may pulse along the sea breeze as it moves toward I-75 each afternoon beginning Thursday. Given the dry air aloft, there will be low chances for thunderstorms with the sea breeze shower activity. Dispersion will be good through the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog possible again Wednesday morning. Patchy fog to areas of fog possible again Thursday and Friday mornings.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 4: KAMG: 86/1961

March 5: KJAX: 87/2020 KGNV: 87/1997 KAMG: 87/1989 KCRG: 88/2020

March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961

March 7: KGNV: 88/2023 KAMG: 86/1956

March 8: KJAX: 86/1974 KGNV: 88/1921 KAMG: 86/1974 KCRG: 86/1998

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7: KGNV: 66/1935

March 8: KGNV: 65/1973

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 56 70 58 72 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 54 79 58 82 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 58 77 59 78 / 0 0 10 20 GNV 57 85 59 85 / 0 0 0 30 OCF 59 86 60 86 / 0 10 0 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ450-452-454- 470.