textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Fog potential this morning and again Tonight, which may become dense

- Near Record Warmth Forecast on Friday and Saturday

- Inland Light Freeze Possible Late Sunday Night

- Inland Patchy Frost Possible Late Monday night

- Small Craft Advisories Likely from Sunday evening through Early Monday

UPDATE

Areas of dense fog persist over portions of the Suwannee Valley and also Flagler/Putnam counties, especially from Palm coast into Bunnell where visibility at times has lowered to under 1 mile. Have let the Dense Fog Advisory expire across Marion county as the dense fog has lifted over a vast majority of the county with only patchy dense fog lingering in a few spots.

Otherwise, a few light patches of drizzle are moving east into US441. Low stratus clouds will slowly lift across SE GA through the late morning to midday hours as winds begin to mix the boundary layer. High pressure ridge axis to the south will lift northward today towards the area by this evening with light westerly winds generally 5-10 mph. Highs will be well above normal into the mid/upper 70s under multi-layed clouds, but trending partly cloudy ahead of an approaching front from the north which will stall just north of the Altamaha river basin late today, but a few patches of drizzle will be possible over inland SE GA. Tonight, ridge axis lifting over the area will create a setup for fog reforming from the Gulf coast, advecting north and east towards the NE FL coast by the predawn early morning hours. The fog may become dense with potential for a Dense Fog Advisory later this evening into Thursday morning. Lows will be in the mid/upper 50s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Mainly zonal flow pattern aloft over the region with a deep layer mean ridge parked over the southern Gulf. A mid/upper level trough will lift northeast of the northeast CONUS, while a potent shortwave trough moves into the Plains by late this period. A weak disturbance/strung out vort lobe does skirt across MS/AL/GA late tonight. At the surface, sfc ridge will be over the FL peninsula, keeping our area in a low level west and southwest flow pattern. The ridge is forecast to drift a bit northward by tonight bringing slightly weak boundary layer flow to the area. A weak, dry cold front and prefrontal trough do slip south to near the Altamaha River/eastern GA area late tonight, but little sensible weather will be noted.

This morning, expect areas to widespread low clouds with patchy/areas of fog. Locally dense fog is possible mainly toward the I-75 corridor. Fog and stratus will then dissipate by the late morning and leave partly sunny/locally mostly cloudy skies to the region. Guidance suggests and radar returns reflect some potential for at least a few sprinkles/drizzle western most zones in a ribbon of moisture streaming in from the west along with some weak forcing aloft. This potential will probably end by early to mid afternoon hours as daytime mixing increases in depth. Above normal temperatures are expected again in the mid to upper 70s with southwest flow about 8- 14 mph.

Tonight, another round of stratus and fog is expected with areas of fog likely late moving in from the west with the stratus. Locally dense fog will be possible again, but confidence in any widespread dense fog is low at this time. Lows will be mild again in the mid to upper 50s, near 60 toward the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

High pressure will be centered to the northeast through Friday night, with dry weather expected. A warm flow will keep temperatures above average.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The region will be between high pressure moving away to the east northeast Saturday, and a cold front approaching from the northwest. This front will move southeast across the area Saturday night through Sunday. A weakening line of showers is expected with this passage. Temperatures will remain well above normal through Saturday night, then near to a little above on Sunday.

High pressure ridge will become centered to the north northwest early in the week. Below average temperatures are forecast for Sunday night through Monday night, with a return to average readings for Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Low stratus and fog expected to persist for a couple of hours around 12z-14z with a mix of IFR to VLIFR. Clouds around 4-5 kft may help improve some conditions at times this morning. The fog and low stratus should lift by 15z-16z with VFR likely thereafter afternoon and evening. There is plenty of low level moisture for a cumulus field to develop during the afternoon hours with bases around 3500- 5000 ft and winds will rise this afternoon to westerly at 6-8 knots. Another round of fog and low stratus is expected toward the end of the TAF period with some MVFR possible at 04z-05z, with widespread LIFR and IFR conditions (especially cigs) moving in from 06z-12z from west to east.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure ridge will extend across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This weather pattern will create a prevailing southwest flow pattern across our local waters. The high pressure ridge will move back over the local waters by Thursday and Friday, and move north of the area waters Friday night. A cold front will then approach our region on Saturday, and move across the local area early Sunday. Northwest winds will strengthen following this frontal passage on Sunday afternoon, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely through Monday morning.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Thursday NE FL Low Thursday

FIRE WEATHER

- Low dispersions along the coast Thursday and Friday - Patchy high dispersions this weekend

High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Friday. A cold front will cross the region over the weekend. High pressure will build once again early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog potential Tonight and Wednesday night. A round of showers is expected with a cold front over the weekend.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

Thursday, January 8th: KAMG: 79/2005

Friday, January 9th: KJAX: 83/1974 KGNV: 83/1989 KAMG: 79/1974 KCRG: 81/9999

Saturday, January 10th: KJAX: 82/1957 KGNV: 85/1937 KAMG: 80/1949 KCRG: 79/2014

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 76 57 75 56 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 73 57 69 58 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 78 57 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 77 57 75 59 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 80 57 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 78 57 79 57 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.