textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues for Portions of the St. Johns River Basin.

- Minor River Flooding Continues Along Portions of the St. Marys River and Lower Portions of the Satilla River.

- Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible at Inland Locations Early on Wednesday.

- Increasing Coastal and Marine Hazards Saturday and Sunday. Gusty Onshore Winds Expected at Coastal Locations. High Risk of Rip Currents Likely at All Area Beaches.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues for Portions of the St. Johns River Basin.

Much drier airmass continues to fill into the region early this morning, which will be reinforced slightly today as a weak secondary front/trough skims the area, shifting flow northwesterly area-wide. No other significant concerns today with a mostly sunny sky, high temps in low to mid 80s, and dew points running mostly in the lower 60s. Only other hazard to mention is held onto the Coastal Flood Advisory for the St. Johns River and tributaries south of downtown Jacksonville, as guidance suggests at least several gauges reaching a mainly marginal minor flood stage. Cool and dry again tonight with similar low temperatures in the 60s. Fog potential looks to be slightly higher for inland areas Tuesday Morning thanks to a weakening flow, though still expecting mainly patchy potential at this time.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry Air Mass Prevails Across Our Area.

- Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible Inland Late on Tuesday Night.

Dry, warm conditions continue as northerly flow persists Tuesday, and becomes more easterly Wednesday, keeping PWATs generally at 1" or below Tuesday, with a little more moisture entering northeast Florida Wednesday. High temperatures inland will reach the mid to upper 80s, with lower to mid 80s along the Atlantic coast due to onshore surface winds. Inland low temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with coastal lows more mild, in the upper 60s. Patchy fog will be possible early Wednesday morning inland.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry and warm weather Thursday and Friday.

- Strong northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures this weekend behind a cold front.

The dry, warm pattern lingers on through Friday as a cold front then approaches from the northwest, expected to pass through the area Friday night. Behind the front, stronger northeasterly winds will develop with about a 10 degree drop in high temperatures Saturday. Highs will remain below 80 degrees area- wide this weekend, with sustained onshore winds along the coast near 20-25 mph, gusting near 30-40 mph. With the onshore winds, isolated to scattered showers with potentially a few embedded storms will impact the coastal areas. Inland southeast Georgia will see low temperatures drop into the lower to mid 50s Saturday and Sunday nights, with 60s elsewhere.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 08Z Tuesday at the regional terminals. Periods of IFR visibilities are expected to develop during the predawn hours on Tuesday at VQQ. Northwesterly surface winds will become sustained around 10 knots by 16Z, followed by surface winds shifting to northerly at 5-10 knots after 21Z. Surface winds will then diminish this evening at the inland terminals, while northwesterly winds around 5 knots develop towards 06Z at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals.

MARINE

High pressure building eastward along the Interstate 10 corridor will create breezy northwesterly winds across our local waters through early Monday afternoon, and Small Craft should Exercise Caution if venturing into the offshore waters. High pressure will then settle over the southeastern states tonight, allowing winds and seas to subside. Onshore winds will develop on Tuesday as high pressure positions itself over the southern Appalachians, with winds and seas expected to remain below Caution levels through Friday evening. Winds will briefly shift to southerly and then southwesterly ahead of a strong cold front that will approach our local waters from the northwest on Friday night, with this front quickly crossing our area on Saturday morning. Northerly winds will abruptly increase following the passage of this front, with Small Craft Advisories likely and potential Gale Force wind gusts throughout the upcoming weekend as strong high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley and wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Winds will shift to northeasterly by Saturday evening, with increasing chances for showers across our local waters as the weekend progresses.

Rip Currents: Breezy offshore winds will keep the risk low at all area beaches today. Developing northeasterly winds will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches from Tuesday through Thursday, while low surf heights keep the risk generally low at the southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather is expected through at least Thursday. Breezy northwesterly transport winds will continue through the early to mid afternoon hours, creating good daytime dispersion values area-wide. Surface and transport winds will shift to northerly this evening and then northeasterly towards sunrise on Tuesday, with breezy surface speeds expected along the northeast Florida coast on Tuesday afternoon. Lighter transport speeds across southeast Georgia will yield generally fair daytime dispersion values on Tuesday, while good values continue for inland locations in northeast and north central Florida. Surface and transport winds will shift slightly to east-northeasterly by Wednesday, with fair to good daytime dispersion values continuing at inland locations, while poor values are expected for coastal southeast Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy fog formation is possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday and Thursday.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River near the gauge at Atkinson during the next several days. Water levels have fallen below flood stage along portions of the St. Mary's River near the Macclenny gauge, where river flood warnings may be discontinued later this morning.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Minor tidal flooding is now confined to the St. Johns River and its tributaries in Putnam County, as well as along Crescent Lake in western Flagler County. Elevated astronomical tides and north to northeasterly winds developing on Tuesday may keep water levels elevated to around 1.5 - 2 feet above normally dry ground during times of high tide through around midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 58 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 85 65 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 87 60 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 87 67 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 87 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 86 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ038-137. GA...None. MARINE...None.