textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near Record Warmth Today & Dry conditions to end the Week. Be very Cautious with Outdoor fires check for local burn bans

- Hazardous Marine Conditions Developing Wed night through. Small Craft Advisory conditions developing by late Thursday

- Potential Light Freeze/Frost Friday & Saturday Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly drift into inland southeast Georgia through this afternoon as winds shift northwesterly. There will be a lull in precipitation this evening, with a revamp in rain chances after midnight over north central Florida and the northeast Florida coast, mainly south of St. Augustine. Thunder chances are low overnight, but non- zero at this time. The front will pass through in the early morning hours, leaving dry conditions and enough wind to prevent fog. Low temperatures will be about 20 degrees cooler over southeast Georgia than last night, with lows dipping into the 40s. More mild low temperatures in the upper 50s expected for north central Florida and the northeast Florida coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Dry weather conditions will be in place through the end of the week as high pressure conditions continue to dominate the weather pattern over the forecast area. Colder temperatures will be in place through the end of the week with daily high temps rising into the 50s and 60s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 30s over southeast Georgia and in the upper 30s and lower 40s for north central Florida and along the coastline. Potential for frost developments over inland southeast Georgia and extending into portions of northeast Florida and extending through the Suwannee Valley region overnight Friday and into early Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Chances for showers and possible thunderstorms will return on Sunday and continue into the beginning of next week as high pressure moves off to the northeast and moist southwesterly flow develops over the region ahead of an advancing frontal boundary building in from out of the northwest. Temperatures will warm up this weekend with daily high and low temps rising to above average levels for this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Rain chances remain at about 15-20% this afternoon and evening for the TAF sites, so just kept VCSH in the TAFs. Winds will shift to northwesterly after the front approaches this evening through the overnight hours. VFR conditions expected.

SYNOPSIS

Winds become southwesterly Today as an approaching cold front begins to press into the local waters by this evening. By late tonight into Thursday, winds shift to become northwesterly to northerly behind the front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected beginning Thursday afternoon for the Florida waters, and Thursday evening for the Georgia waters. Conditions will likely persist on Friday and possibly into Saturday as winds shift to the northeast and east, before subsiding on Sunday as high pressure builds north of the region.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Today and Thursday NE FL Moderate Today and Thursday

DISCUSSION

A cold front will continue to move through the forecast area today with breezy southwesterly winds of about 10-15 mph gusting to around 25 mph. A broken line of scattered showers will thin out with southeast extent as it moves towards the coast, however an isolated thunderstorms may occur during midday into early afternoon. The dissipating activity and swift movement of the showers will limit total rainfall to under a quarter of an inch inland and less than a tenth of an inch near the coast. With increasing southwesterly surface and transport winds, areas of high daytime are expected.

A drier air mass associated with strong high pressure will build in from the northwest on Thursday along with lower dew points settling into the region, creating critically low Min RH values 20-25 percent by Thursday afternoon. As the strong high builds to the north Friday, the lingering dry air mass will lead to MinRH values dropping into the 15-20 percent range over inland SE GA and 20-25 percent range for inland NE FL. As such, elevated fire danger conditions are expected for both Thursday and Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A brief strong thunderstorm is possible this afternoon with potential for wind gusts around 40 mph and small hail.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 40 60 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 48 64 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 49 67 35 59 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 55 67 42 60 / 20 10 0 0 GNV 52 68 35 61 / 20 0 0 0 OCF 56 69 36 61 / 30 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ452-454-472-474.