textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas to Widespread Dense Fog This Morning. Southeast GA and portions of NE FL. Nightly, Localized Dense Fog Possible Each Morning This Week

- Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds This Week. Elevated Surf and High Risk for Rip Currents Likely by Tuesday and

- Record High Temperatures Later This Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:

- Areas of dense fog this morning, and again Monday Morning

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Suwannee Valley, Southeast GA and portions of NE FL along I-10, including western Duval County. Elsewhere, low stratus should limit dense fog to a patchy nature. Fog should lift through 8-9 AM.

After areas of fog and low clouds this morning, especially inland, generally weak high pressure will be the primary feature throughout today tonight as well before changes come with a backdoor front and reinforcing ridge on Monday. As for today, more sunshine than clouds will be expected area wide, with only some scattered lower clouds closer to the coast and over southern areas with an onshore flow around 10-15 mph, only around 5-10 mph on average inland. Highs will be a bit warmer today thanks to the weaker flow, except near the coast. Mid to upper 70s will be common inland, with mid 60s to the low 70s more c common closer to the coast & St. Johns River.

Some higher clouds will move into the region later this evening and into tonight, which will have a bit of an effect on both fog and low stratus potential as well as amount of radiational cooling, but not significantly. Still expecting some lower clouds to spread inland from northeast to southwest tonight, with some patchy to areas of fog mainly inland where calmer winds occur. Min temps will be generally in the 40s to near 50 inland and low 50s by the coast and St. Johns River Basin.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Patchy Morning Fog Possible - Breezy Coastal Winds - Slight Chance of Coastal Showers Tuesday

Upper level flow will flatten out as the broader pattern aloft begins to transition on Monday. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure pushing off the New England coast will push a backdoor cold front into the area through Monday. A northeasterly wind surge will bring an uptick in coastal winds through Monday afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Winds will begin to relax through Monday night as the high pressure shifts farther away into the north Atlantic. Prevailing flow will turn onshore, leading to the development of coastal trough which may direct some showers into the NE FL beaches through Tuesday afternoon. Some upper level moisture (aka clouds) moving across SE GA early Monday and Tuesday morning could lessen the fog extent or development there, favoring areas across NE FL where skies are progged to be mostly clear. Temperatures will gradually warm early this with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and low 80s inland by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid/upper 50s each night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Weather Highlights:

- Chances for coastal showers continue Wednesday - Record High Temperatures possible Thursday through the Weekend - Isolated Thunderstorms Inland Thursday/Friday

The shift to warmer, moist and an early summer-like airmass is expected through the middle and latter part of the week and into the weekend. Robust amplifying ridge aloft and warm, moist southeasterly flow will both contribute to near record and possibly record-setting temperatures later this week. Long-range ensembles indicated the 925mb temperatures will be on the extreme warm side, registering at the 95th-99th percentile for several days as the center of the upper ridge hovers over Florida and Georgia.

Initially, the warm moist southeasterly flow and the warm temperatures should result in modest instability, encouraging scattered sea-breeze driven showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoons. This activity should be focused inland, along or west of I-75 each day. Convective activity will like begin to be suppressed by the weekend as strong subsident air beneath the upper ridge builds a firm cap aloft.

Highs will build each through Friday when upper 80s to near 90 degree temps are expected inland. The cooling sea breeze will keep the beaches 10-15 degrees cooler. It's worth mentioning that this prolonged warm, moist airmass over the cooler coastal waters may lead to episodic sea fog through the week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

FG and low stratus are filling into the region as expected early this morning. IFR conditions will be expected at all terminals through early to mid morning overall, though light breezes around 2 to 3 knots at times this morning will likely "mix out" lower vsbys at times, especially at airfields closer to the coast north and east of GNV and VQQ. Continue to monitor throughout the morning hours for any forecast updates accordingly. Otherwise, restrictions are expected to lift by mid morning with VFR returning. Winds are forecast to remain just under 10 kts at all airfields except for SGJ where onshore flow will be stronger. FG and low stratus chances return tonight, but after the end of the current forecast period.

MARINE

High pressure to the north will build more toward the northeast and strengthen early next week, with a inverted trough developing over the coastal waters. Strong onshore flow will develop as a result early to mid next week, with small craft advisory conditions likely. The high will move away toward the east later in the week, with a breezy onshore flow continuing across the waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected at area beaches with some persistent onshore flow and surf height around 2 to 4 feet. Rip current risk increases throughout Monday as onshore flow strengthens.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Monday, Tuesday

A pattern shift with strong upper ridge building across the region this week will lead to near record temperatures Thursday and Friday. Critical weather conditions don't appear to align through the next week but the transition to moist, and mildly unstable, airmass later this week may lead to a moderate sea breeze and the potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for inland districts Thursday and Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Potential for locally dense fog this morning for inland areas, especially across SE GA. Nightly potential for fog which may become locally dense is expected each night this week.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures later this week:

March 5: KGNV: 87/1997 KAMG: 87/1989

March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 77 48 76 53 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 66 52 66 55 / 0 0 10 20 JAX 73 49 75 55 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 68 53 73 59 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 78 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 78 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-030-035-120-124-220-225-322-422-425-522. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None.