textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Continue this Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Surf Advisories NE FL Beaches Today. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Within the St. Johns River Basin. Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Along Portions of the Northeast FL Coast

- Strong Northeasterly Winds Develop Friday Night Along the I-95 Corridor. Moderate Tidal and Coastal Flooding Likely During the Upcoming Weekend. Gale Conditions Possible for the Local Atlantic Waters. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions with a High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches

- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible this Weekend for Coastal Northeast FL

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions prevail through the 00Z TAF period.

Decreasing north northeasterly winds around 5 knots inland and 8-10 knots along the coast back northerly tonight into early Wednesday morning. Winds will increase from the north northeast after 15Z Wednesday as high pressure continues to influence from the north while low pressure northeast of the region slowly lifts north off the Mid Atlantic coast through tomorrow evening with a reduced local pressure gradient over the area.

Only few to scattered clouds moving onto the NE FL coastal TAF sites and the duval county terminals Wednesday afternoon with drier air keeping skies clear inland and a few mid to high level clouds at SSI from a passing upper wave.

MARINE

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern states and a strong low pressure well offshore over the western Atlantic will continue to support hazardous marine conditions across the area waters this week. Rough seas will persist tonight before easing slowly through mid week as the low offshore moves slowly northward. Small craft advisory level conditions will continue into mid to late week. Another surge of Northeast winds to Gale force is expected to develop late Friday and continue into this weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continues much of this week given the elevated surf conditions and onshore flow. Though the high surf advisory will be eventually dropped over the area beaches over the next day or so, elevated surf will continue to be a problem the next few days for any swimmer entering the surf zone. Looking ahead, high surf advisory looks probable again for the weekend as northeast flow increases.

FIRE WEATHER

- Inland Se Ga Rh Falling To Around 30 Percent Wednesday - Patchy High Dispersions Ne Fl Wednesday - Patchy High Dispersions Se Ga And Ne Fl Friday - High Coastal Dispersions Over The Weekend

Onshore flow pattern will continue through the next week. This flow pattern will strengthen over the weekend. Chances for mainly coastal showers will also increase this weekend. With a weaker onshore flow the next few days, drier air will be able to filter into inland areas, where afternoon RH values will fall into the 30s.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected Tonight.

HYDROLOGY

The Satilla River at Atkinson is nearly steady today around 14 ft and a gradual fall anticipated after Wednesday. Thus, Minor Flooding will continue along portions of the lower Satilla River Basin through the end of the work week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Despite the relaxing of the NE winds slightly, they will remain high enough to continue Minor Tidal flooding of the St. Johns River Basin and the ICWW along the NE FL Coast to keep the Coastal Flood Advisory in place through the end of the week. Water levels generally peak up to 1.5 to 1.9 feet MHHW, with the higher end departures near and south of the Shands Bridge area.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another surge of northeast winds and the full moon on Sunday Oct 25 will push water levels up further, especially for the coast. Confidence is growing for moderate tidal flooding and coastal flood watches/warnings may be needed.

At the beaches, minor to moderate beach erosion will continue especially at times of high tide due to the rough surf and a gradual increase in tidal levels as we approach the full moon later this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 46 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 60 74 58 74 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 53 77 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 78 62 75 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 52 81 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 53 80 55 76 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-125- 132-137-138-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-454- 472-474. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ470.