textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Wet Pattern Through Monday with Daily Thunderstorms. Main Concerns: Strong gusts of at least 40 mph, Localized Flooding

- Enhanced rip current risk begins Sunday and continues Monday

- Long Term Exception to Extreme Drought

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Wet, Stormy - Localized Flooding Risk continues today/tonight

A frontal boundary near the Altamaha River Basin area will remain nearly stationary through tonight. South of the boundary, we continue in a very moist airmass with PWATs of about 2 inches. Flow will be stronger from the west today both at the surface and aloft. Given the high moisture content and daytime instability, still looks like some possible minor temporary flooding issues today and into tonight. Activity will begin midday near the west coast sea breeze and probably near the Altamaha River near the frontal boundary. All activity generally moves eastward up to 20-25 mph so the flooding threat, at least in some locations, will be lower than yesterday. POPs will be in the likely category. Best chance of stronger storms and heavier rainfall will be near and north of I-10 this afternoon and evening. WPC continues to show the nrn 2/3rds of the area in the marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Soundings show strong gusty winds are possible but largely due to the a faster storm motion on top of the outflow winds. Precip chances will stay elevated in the evening but should wind down after midnight. Some shower or isolated storm activity may begin to develop late over inland northeast FL due to enhanced flow off the Gulf.

Temperatures will be below average today with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows range from the upper 60s to near 70 across inland SE GA to the mid 70s toward the Atlantic coast. Patchy fog expected early this morning and again early Sunday morning. Localized dense fog is possible for brief periods.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Wet, Stormy Weather Continues, Especially Sunday - Daily Localized Flooding Risk

Frontal boundary will continue to meander near the region throughout the short term, with a nudge towards the south expected on Sunday, settling the boundary almost directly across the area. Numerous to widespread showers are therefore expected to continue across the region as PWATs remain in the 2"+ range and an upper level "wave" moves along the boundary. Low level flow will be complicated, as a more westerly flow will continue across southern areas as a northeasterly "surge" tries to build in from the north behind the boundary, though not making much progress beyond interior southeast GA. Guidance is in good agreement that the most widespread convective activity will be across southeast GA closer to more favorable upper level support. However, the Atlantic sea breeze is still expected to push inland within the somewhat chaotic flow, which could cause some enhancement in any t'storms near coastal areas late morning to early afternoon, then inland during the afternoon and evening. The primary hazard continues to be localized minor flooding, as severe potential will remain low. Highs will be a bit cooler overall Sunday, but especially north and east behind the front and where the thickest cloud cover is expected. Looking at low to mid 80s north and east, and mid to upper 80s south and west. Some light rain and isolated t'storms will likely linger through at least the first half of Sunday Night, especially north and east. Lows temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s are forecast.

Monday, the front will nudge back towards just north of the region almost as quick as it nudged south on Sunday, as a weak area of low pressure forms east of the area and moves into the Atlantic on Monday Night. This will result in low level flow more towards a west to northwest direction, which will complicate shower and t'storm coverage somewhat. Guidance is hinting that more continental and slightly drier flow will limit convective chances the further north and west you go, with models like the GFS dropping PWATs to around 1.5 inches across inland southeast GA Monday afternoon. With the frontal boundary nearby, still expecting at least some scattered to possibly numerous activity in these areas, though looking like the best available moisture and therefore highest rain chances will be towards the coast and over most of northeast FL on Monday afternoon/evening, with a Gulf sea breeze rather quickly moving across these areas and towards the nearly pinned Atlantic breeze. Therefore, the I-95 corridor to the coast is more of the "focus area" for stronger storm potential where this collision occurs. High temps Monday will be more uniform with the front further north, with widespread mid to upper 80s expected and possibly a few readings at or just above 90. Similarly, a few showers or perhaps an isolated t'storm may linger into the first half of Monday Night, as similar low temps to Sunday in the upper 60s to mid 70s are expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warmer with Less Storm Coverage Tuesday - Cooler, breezy & drier with inland storm Wednesday-Friday

Although uncertainty still exists for most of the long term period, there is at least decent agreement in long term guidance with respect to an upper level trough dropping across the northeast and mid atlantic states Tuesday through Wednesday, progressing another frontal boundary towards and likely across the region. The main discrepancy is with respect to how far south this front progresses, and therefore how much moisture remains across our area. The most "reasonable" consensus will be at least a decrease in the amount of shower and t'storm coverage behind the boundary, especially the further north you go where a drier and breezier high pressure influence occurs. Moisture and therefore rain chances may increase towards the end of next week, pending the evolution of a weak upper level low over the Gulf that guidance is currently having a difficult time resolving. Temperatures near or slightly above climo Tuesday will generally fall close to our below climo Wednesday - Friday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Low cigs and vsby with areas of LIFR and IFR for the JAX terminals through 12z. May see additional cig restrictions for SGJ, GNV, and SSI over the course of the next few hours. Otherwise, light patchy rain in the area and is shifting eastward, with general weakening trend. With daytime heating, cigs and vsby should improve with another bout of showers and storms today, with TEMPO and PROB groups in place for MVFR TSRA. Some of the stronger storms may produce IFR vsby. Lingering convection expected tonight, but will slowly diminish after midnight.

MARINE

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will be just north of the local waters through tonight. This front will push southward into the area waters on Sunday resulting in breezy northeast to east winds at times, mainly over the northern waters. This front will become stationary again and lift north on Sunday night as a weak area low pressure forms over southeast Georgia waters. A good chance of thunderstorms remains through this weekend and into Monday evening. A strong cold front will then sweep southward across our area on Tuesday, with this boundary likely stalling south of our local waters by midweek. High pressure will wedge down the southeastern seaboard in the wake of this frontal passage, creating breezy winds at times beginning on Tuesday and likely persisting through Thursday.

Rip Currents: A low to locally moderate risk today with surf likely to be below 2 ft with buoys showing 1.5 ft seas. There is a lingering wind-sea swells of about 9 seconds. The risk may begin to rise back up to moderate to locally high Sunday afternoon into Monday due to onshore flow and increased surf.

FIRE WEATHER

A generally wet and stormy weekend expected as a frontal zone lingers over the area and interacts with daily sea breezes. Today, southwest winds prevail with a Gulf sea breeze progressing inland late morning through early afternoon, with highest coverage of storms toward the east coast and across southeast GA in the afternoon and early evening. Sunday, the lingering front will drop slightly further south, and a weak surface low develops along the boundary, bringing more rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity into Sunday night. Dispersions will be fair to good today before more patches of poor dispersions are expected on Sunday near the meandering frontal zone where winds will be weaker. Exactly where this boundary stalls will make a difference in expected wind direction, as far interior GA are expected to see more northeasterly winds Sunday, whereas further south towards the Ocala National Forest, west to southwesterly flow is expected.

Looking ahead, numerous to widespread showers and t'storms are likely to continue Monday before another front and drier air moves in mid week and lowers rain chances.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in areas where heavy rain recently falls. Erratic winds will occur from thunderstorm activity, as well as the possibility of localized minor flooding from torrential rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 85 70 82 69 / 70 50 90 60 SSI 87 73 84 74 / 70 70 90 80 JAX 88 72 86 72 / 70 50 90 60 SGJ 88 73 87 73 / 80 50 80 60 GNV 88 72 89 72 / 70 20 70 30 OCF 87 73 88 74 / 50 30 60 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.