textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Tuesday.

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog for Inland Locations Along and North of Interstate 10 Early on Tuesday Morning.

- Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms at Inland Locations from Tuesday through Thursday.

- Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Area-Wide from Friday through Memorial Day.

- Historic Drought Conditions Continue Across Much of Our Region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches this Afternoon.

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible for Inland Locations Along and North of Interstate 10 Late Tonight.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strong Atlantic high pressure (1029 millibars) centered near Bermuda and extending its axis westward across the southeastern states. Aloft...ridges were centered over Mexico's Yucatan peninsula and east of the North Carolina Outer Banks, with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) spinning to the northeast of the Bahamas. Dry northwesterly flow prevails aloft locally in between the two ridges. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a dry air mass has advected over our entire area from east to west overnight and this morning, with PWATs around of slightly below 1 inch for locations east of the Apalachicola River and north of the Interstate 4 corridor. A flat cumulus field was located along and east of the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in northeast and north central FL, with fair skies otherwise prevailing. Temperatures were rising through the mid and upper 80s for locations west of I-95 as of 18Z, while breezy easterly winds have kept temperatures in the lower 80s at coastal locations. A wider range of dewpoints prevail across our region, with values falling through the mid and upper 50s across inland portions of southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, while values ranged from 65-70 at most coastal locations.

Breezy, convergent easterly flow could bring a few light showers or sprinkles to the Flagler County coastline this afternoon, but a dry and mostly subsident air mass will otherwise limit shower development this afternoon and evening for most of our area. Slightly deeper moisture over north central FL will perhaps develop a shower over Marion County late this afternoon, but thunderstorm activity is unlikely. Winds at inland locations will decouple towards midnight, setting the stage for fog development for inland locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor during the predawn and early morning hours on Tuesday. Areas of locally dense fog could occur towards sunrise across inland portions of southeast GA. Meanwhile, convergent onshore winds may provide a slightly better chance for showers developing over the Atlantic waters adjacent to northeast FL to arrive onshore towards sunrise, mainly for coastal locations from St. Augustine southward. Marine cumulus and stratocumulus clouds will otherwise increase in coverage from south to north along the I-95 corridor during the predawn and early morning hours on Tuesday, with these clouds and an onshore breeze keeping coastal lows mostly in the lower 70s. Lows at inland locations will generally fall to the mid and upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

- Daily thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor. - Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely into midweek.

Onshore flow persists through midweek as high pressure remains over the Bermuda region. Chances of precipitation return on Tuesday and Wednesday as moist air moves in from the Atlantic, bringing PWATs upwards to 1.5" each afternoon. With the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze, activity will be focused over inland locations towards the I-75 corridor and north central FL each afternoon. The onshore flow will continue to bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up from 15mph to 20mph possible each afternoon. Daytime highs each afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior to the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will have highs in the mid to upper 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s. Patchy fog is possible inland both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms expected along the sea breeze mergers.

Rain chances Thursday are pretty isolated, near 20% inland, as onshore winds continue. Precipitation chances increase area-wide Friday through the weekend as a front stalls near northern Georgia then lifts northward, and steering flow becomes more southerly, allowing sea breeze mergers in a more central location. Highest storm chances overall will be Saturday and Sunday afternoons and evenings, between I-95 and I-75 where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes interact. With PWATs near 1.5-1.75" there is potential for locally heavy downpours within storms.

Each day, high temperatures will generally be in the low 90s inland, and a little cooler near the Atlantic coast with mild low temps in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 06Z Tuesday. Periods of IFR visibilities are expected after 06Z at VQQ. Marine cumulus and stratocumulus are expected to push onshore during the predawn hours on Tuesday along the northeast FL coast, and confidence was high enough to maintain prevailing MVFR ceilings of 2,000 - 2,500 feet at SGJ after 07Z. A brief shower cannot be ruled out at SGJ during the predawn or early morning hours on Tuesday. Ceilings of 2,500 - 3,000 feet will then shift northwestward across the Duval County terminals towards or after 12Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at GNV, and confidence was too low to indicate MVFR ceilings at SSI later on Tuesday morning. Easterly surface winds will remain sustained near 15 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, as well as at the Duval County terminals through around 01Z, while speeds at GNV increase to 10-15 knots from around 20Z through around 01Z. Surface winds will shift to southeasterly at the coastal terminals after 03Z, with speeds diminishing to around 10 knots. Winds at the inland terminals will diminish to 5-10 knots after 02Z. East to southeasterly surface winds will then increase to around 10 knots by 16Z Tuesday.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure centered to Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states through midweek. An easterly wind surge late this afternoon through this evening will result in Caution level wind speeds for the northeast Florida waters. Prevailing east to southeasterly winds will continue across our local waters during the next several days, with isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. A frontal boundary will briefly stall over the southeastern states late this week before lifting northward as a warm front during the Holiday weekend. Caution conditions will again be possible for the near shore waters from Friday through early next week as Atlantic high pressure becomes reinforced near Bermuda.

Rip Currents:

An easterly wind surge will combine with the outgoing tide and breakers of 2 to 4 feet to create a high rip current risk at all area beaches this afternoon, with similar conditions on Tuesday likely keeping this high risk in place. Persistent east to southeast winds will keep at least a moderate risk in place at area beaches on Wednesday and Thursday, with high risks again possible from Friday through the upcoming Holiday weekend, as late afternoon and evening easterly wind surges potentially return.

..PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS THIS WEEK

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon through the week. Patchy high dispersions will be present over inland locations Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. Moisture will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of particular concern this week. Moisture will steadily increase each day, with thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening, mainly for inland northeast FL through Thursday, then area- wide Friday through next weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms each day Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings for inland locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 64 90 64 90 / 0 20 0 10 SSI 72 84 73 84 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 68 88 69 89 / 10 0 0 10 SGJ 73 87 73 87 / 10 10 0 10 GNV 69 92 69 92 / 0 30 0 30 OCF 70 91 70 91 / 10 30 0 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...None.