textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Dense Fog Possible Each Morning Through Saturday

- Thunderstorm Potential Increases Friday for SE GA. Marginal Severe T-Storm Risk Saturday SE GA, Isolated Storms Elsewhere

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of the Region. Red Flag Conditions Possible Monday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Sunday through Monday

UPDATE

The probability of fog has lowered some for late tonight into early Friday due to the elevated wind flow from the southwest overnight. Instead, appears most of the initial fog and low stratus already moving in from the Gulf coast to near the Suwannee river will advect to the I-75 corridor between 9-11PM with low ceilings below 500ft and visibility 3-5 miles that will move ENE to the coast and Jax area with patchy to areas of fog and low stratus after midnight arriving into the high 301 and I-95 corridors. Then, areas of dense fog will across Gilchrist, Alachua, and Marion counties where a dense fog advisory would most likely be needed late tonight during the predawn morning hours, then patchy to areas of sea fog will develop over the nearshore waters which may be locally dense at times along the coast into sunrise.

Southwest winds will be 5-10 mph over most area and a bit higher over SE GA areas northwest of US-84. The latter portion of the areas will have lows in the mid 60s with low 60s southward to I-10 and around 60 over north central FL/southern St Johns river basin. A few light showers lifting north from I-10 over the Suwannee Valley should remain along US-441 and westward tonight.

Friday, the fog will lift between 9-10AM, but low stratus will take longer to lift as winds gradually increase through late morning before breaking up by midday. Southwest winds will resume breezy 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as a front approaches from the NW, but will slow down before reaching the Altamaha basin. Scattered showers will develop into the Suwannee Valley and inland SE GA, but dry conditions will prevail elsewhere. An isolated T'storm cannot be ruled out NW of Alma, but more likely west of our inland SE GA counties. Highs (see climate section) will be very close to daily record highs into the mid 80s over inland NE FL and low 80s over inland SE GA with upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main hazards this period: Another round of dense fog expected tonight, mainly for NE FL, coastal SE GA and Atlantic waters.

This afternoon: Breezy SW steering flow will continue to scour out the remaining low clouds early this afternoon and expect partly to mostly sunny conditions to break out with highs at least in the lower 80s over inland areas, with a few middle 80s possible across inland NE FL, only slightly cooler in the mid/upper 70s at the Atlantic beaches as breezy SW winds sustained around 15 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph push the milder flow all the way to the Atlantic coast. Some isolated showers continue in the increased moisture from the FL/GA border northward across SE GA, but overall rainfall chances remain generally only in the 20-30% range.

Tonight: SW winds weaken after sunset to 5-10 mph this evening and expect the moist SW flow off the NE Gulf to allow for another round of low stratus clouds and fog to develop by the late evening hours and advect across the entire local area. The pressure gradient is a little stronger across inland SE GA closer to the incoming frontal boundary, so expecting mostly just light fog along with the low stratus development there, while SW winds falling to 5 mph or less across NE FL will allow for both low stratus and dense fog development through the overnight hours and expecting potential for dense fog advisory in some spots, but mainly along the I-95 and US 301 corridors. Sea fog development is expected late at night as well as dew point temps in the 60s will be much warmer than the ocean temps in the 50s along the near shore Atlantic waters and Marine Dense Fog Advisories may be required as well towards morning. Low temps will remain well above normal only falling into the lower 60s, and possibly only the middle 60s across inland SE GA due to the elevated SW winds during the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Hazards This Period: Thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, with a few strong storms possible over SE GA. An inland freeze over SE GA Sunday night.

High pressure ridging will prevail across central and southern FL Saturday, as a frontal zone stretches across central GA. While FL will be primarily dry on Saturday, showers will move along the frontal zone and affect SE GA.

A stronger wave will develop and move into the Carolinas Saturday night, helping to push a cold front southeast across forecast area. Showers, with embedded thunderstorms are expected as the front moves through. The greatest chance for thunderstorms will be over SE GA, with activity weakening as it enters NE FL.

On Sunday, the front will move to the southeast of the area, with high pressure building from the northwest. The high will continue to build through Sunday night.

Temperatures will run well above normal through Saturday night. Sunday will be a transition day, with highs near seasonal levels, but falling temperatures in the afternoon. Lows Sunday night will fall to around freezing over inland SE GA Sunday night, and mid over inland NE FL. The wind will remain elevated Sunday night, so frost is forecast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The cold front will be south of the forecast area Sunday, leaving cooler temperatures compared to Friday and Saturday, with showers lingering through the morning to early afternoon. Behind the front, winds will shift to northeasterly, bringing in much cooler and drier air to start the work week. Sunday night, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s for inland southeast Georgia, but winds will likely be too high for widespread frost development. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will stay in the 50s, with Monday night and Tuesday night seeing freezing temperatures over inland locations. Wind chills will dip into the 20s early Tuesday morning, potentially prompting a Cold Weather Advisory for portions of northeast Florida.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions through the first six hours of the TAF period will deteriorate to IFR/LIFR/VLIFR levels after 06Z due to fog and low stratus lowering ceilings and visibility at all sites until 12-14Z. Inland TAF sites will see prevailing LIFR/VLIFR conditions by 05-07Z as fog spreads inland from the Gulf coast, then spread IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR fog to the duval and coastal TAF sites. Southwest winds 5-8 knots will prevail overnight.

The fog will improve to MVFR/VFR by 14Z, but ceilings will take longer to lift with improvement to IFR ceilings by 14/15Z and then MVFR by 16/17Z before ceilings rise above VFR levels by 18Z. High pressure will remain to the southeast as a frontal boundary stretches northwest of the region with breezy southwest winds of 12-15 knots and gusts to 15-20 knots from 16Z into the afternoon. Widely scattered showers will bring VCSH coverage to SSI after 18Z Friday.

MARINE

High pressure east of the Florida Peninsula will continue to extend a ridge axis westward across area waters through Saturday. Patchy dense sea fog is also expected during the late night and morning hours through Saturday. Shower and isolated thunderstorm potential will increase Saturday Night through Sunday Morning as the front moves through, with a breezy northwest flow developing behind the front as well as likely Small Craft Advisory conditions. High pressure north and west of the region will then be the main weather feature early next week, slowly moving almost directly over the area by mid week.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be moderate through Friday at area beaches thanks to breezy offshore flow and some remnant long period swells. Surf/breakers of 2-4 ft today will trend downward to 2-3 ft on Friday and around 2 feet this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Friday And Saturday - Min Rh At Critical Levels Monday And Tuesday

Prevailing southwesterly flow expected through Saturday as high pressure ridge remains south of the area, with a cold front entering the area by Saturday night. Breezy southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph will lead to areas of high dispersion on Friday, and widespread high dispersion likely Saturday and possibly on Sunday. Moisture will increase ahead of the front the next couple of days with a chance of showers mainly across southeast GA and around the I-10 corridor. Higher chances showers most areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, with a few thunderstorms also possible. The cold front moves south of the area Sunday leading to a much colder and drier airmass going into early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of Fog are possible tonight and Friday night with locally dense fog likely at times.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures possible today into the weekend.

Thu, February 19: KJAX: 86/1891 KCRG: 85/1975 KGNV: 88/1924 KAMG: 82/2018

Fri, February 20: KJAX: 86/1961 KCRG: 83/2014 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014

Sat, February 21: KJAX: 86/2019 KCRG: 84/2019 KGNV: 89/2019 KAMG: 87/2018

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 64 82 65 82 / 10 60 40 70 SSI 61 77 61 76 / 10 30 30 40 JAX 62 85 63 85 / 0 10 10 20 SGJ 60 83 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 61 85 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.