textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Increasing Wildfire Danger Area-Wide. Severe to Extreme Drought Conditions Expanding throughout our Region. Beneficial Rainfall Today through Early Thursday Morning

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Thursday and Thursday night

- Light Freeze and Areas of Frost Inland on Friday Morning

- Moderate Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches

UPDATE

Temperatures continue to increase this morning, warranting an on time expiration of the frost advisory that was in place across portions of NE FL this morning.

Interestingly there is a reverse-gradient in temperatures with the warmer temperatures in the upper 40s across SE GA where a weak prefrontal trough and strengthening upper level jet has spread cloud cover and light stratiform showers across areas north of Waycross. Southward in NE FL the temps are slowly warming to the upper 30s and low 40s under the clear skies.

Due to some wildfire activity, there has been hyper-localized fog development restricting visibility across portions of NE FL, especially Putnam County. This fog and smoke should begin to lift around 9 AM - 10 AM with visibility improving there after.

For the rest of the morning and afternoon, the prefrontal trough northwest of the area will make it's way southeastward, bringing a much need rainfall to portions of SE GA where a quarter- to half- inch of rain accumulation is forecast. This rainfall will mainly be forced by the upper level jet and will not generate any convection given the lack of appreciable buoyancy.

Cloud cover across SE GA will restrict heating and the diurnal range today with only highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. More morning sun across NE FL and warm southwesterly flow will boost highs into the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon before the next cold front and rainfall arrive tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Early this morning: Frost Advisory looks on track across inland North Central FL as temps have already fallen into the mid/upper 30s in the GNV/OCF metro area under the lingering high pressure center and still on track to fall into the lower/middle 30s with at least areas of Frost formation towards sunrise. Otherwise further northward into SE GA, a slow increase in mid and high clouds is expected with low temps closer to 40F and even a slight chance of showers to the NW of Alma, GA around sunrise. Some patchy fog will be possible along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL in addition to the frost potential, but significant fog formation is not expected.

Today: Low pressure development over the Carolinas will slowly shift the frontal boundary and associated rainfall over the SE states into most of inland SE GA this morning, then into coastal SE GA and along the I-10 corridor from JAX westward through the afternoon hours. This will be preceded by an increase in mid/high level cloudiness and also an increase in SW winds to near breezy levels with sustained speeds around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at times. A wider range in Max temps is expected today with highs into the lower 70s and slightly above normal across most of NE FL, but only into the 60s across SE GA due to the earlier onset of rainfall chances ahead of the approaching frontal boundary.

Tonight: Light to Moderate Rainfall and cold frontal boundary will continue to progress SE through the local area, with rainfall ending across inland SE GA by midnight, then slowly ending across inland NE FL during the overnight hours, while some light rainfall may still be ongoing along coastal NE FL by sunrise Thursday morning. Total rainfall amounts for this event appear to average around 0.25", but some higher totals closer to 0.50-0.75" across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley can be expected as well, all mainly beneficial to the overall Severe to Extreme drought conditions that are ongoing. Some lower visibilities in patchy stratus/fog will be possible during the rainfall event, but dense fog is not expected at this time. Following the cold frontal passage, temps will fall into the upper 30s across inland SE GA, but likely only falling into the 40s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Lingering showers will move offshore and disperse on Thursday with cold dry air settling in over the region as breezy northwesterly winds become more mild and variable in the evening and overnight hours, following the frontal passage. Colder air will become displaced on Friday as warmer and more humid air associated with the northwesterly prevailing flow advects into the forecast area. Temperatures will be below average on Thursday with max temps in the lower 50s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 50s over northeast Florida with overnight low temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s over inland areas. Temps will warm noticeably on Friday with max temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Potential for widespread frost and freezing conditions over inland areas overnight Thursday and into Friday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Dry weather conditions will persist through the long term period as a weak dry front presses in from out of the northwest helping to reinforce dry conditions going into midweek. Temperatures will warm through the weekend and into the beginning of next week with max and min temps rising to be near and above the seasonal average before the end of the period.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions this morning, with the exception of patchy early morning fog potential at VQQ/GNV/SGJ. Southwest winds will increase after 15Z to around 10-12 knots with gusts to 15-18 knots possible through the afternoon hours. Rainfall ahead of the frontal boundary will push into all the TAF sites by the 22-02Z time frame, but not expecting any CIGS or VSBYS to lower into the MVFR category until the 03-06Z time frame, then lower even further to IFR CIGS, MVFR VSBYS in light rainfall in the 06-09Z time frame through the end of the 12Z TAF period.

MARINE

The next cold front approaches from the west Today, moving across the area waters Tonight with potential for Small Craft Advisory by early Thursday through Thursday night. Weak high pressure builds into the region, followed by another cold frontal passage on Friday with another Small Craft Advisory possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk with long period swells producing surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range today with a further decrease to around 2 ft surf/breakers on Thursday in the offshore flow which may bring the overall rip current risk to low levels.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy Areas Of Low Dispersions Over Southeast Georgia Today - Patchy High Dispersions Thursday And Friday

High pressure will move eastward into the Atlantic today, ahead of an approaching cold front pressing into the region from out of the northwest. The approaching front will bring denser cloud cover and showers over interior Georgia which will then spread southeastward across northeast Florida through tonight and into Thursday. Breezy northwesterly flow with cooler and drier conditions will return to the region on Thursday. Dry weather with a predominant westerly- northwesterly flow will then prevail through the end of the week and into the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Frost and patchy fog early this morning over northeast Florida. Frost and freezing conditions are expected for Thursday night into Friday morning. Significant fog developments are not expected for the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 59 39 49 28 / 80 90 10 0 SSI 63 44 53 34 / 30 90 20 0 JAX 70 44 56 31 / 20 80 20 0 SGJ 70 47 58 34 / 0 90 40 0 GNV 71 45 57 30 / 10 90 20 0 OCF 71 46 58 30 / 0 100 30 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.