textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Dense Fog Possible Early on Wed & Thurs

- Elevated Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today through Thursday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Friday into the Weekend

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of the Region

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

This afternoon: High pressure center over the Carolinas will slowly shift offshore with low level steering flow becoming more Southeast to South through the afternoon. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies still expected along the I-95 corridor of coastal SE GA/coastal NE FL as periods of strato-cu clouds continue to move onshore and dissipate slowly as they move inland leaving inland areas Mostly Sunny. This will lead to a temp range from the mid/upper 70s over inland areas, to the lower 70s along the I-95 corridor and only the 60s along the Atlantic beaches due to the cloud cover and onshore East winds at 10- 15 mph off the much cooler Atlantic waters.

Tonight: High pressure ridge axis over the Western Atlantic will slowly shift southward and across the FL Peninsula towards morning. This will shift the S-SE steering flow to a more S-SW direction overnight. Mostly clear skies this evening will become partly cloudy overnight as some high cloudiness pushes into the region from the Northwest overtop of the dirty high pressure ridge aloft to the west of the local area. Despite some of the higher clouds overnight, they should be thin enough to still allow for low temps in the upper 40s across inland SE GA and lower 50s across inland NE FL, along in the middle 50s along the Atlantic beaches. Light south winds less than 5 mph are expected to develop inland and remain in the 5-10 mph range along the Atlantic Coast. The slight increase in low level moisture and slightly higher dew point temps should lead to patchy/areas of fog over inland areas and even some light sea fog near the Atlantic Coast as some of these dew points approach ocean temps along the coast, but overall only expected locally dense fog in some locations as the latest SREF probs for dense fog remain only in the 20-40% range, but will continue to monitor for potential increase in dense fog probabilities around sunrise Wednesday morning as the surface high pressure ridge axis moves closer to the local area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Hazard This Period: potential for nightly fog.

High pressure will be centered to the east Wednesday, with ridge extending across central FL. The high center will move more toward the southeast Thursday, with the ridge pushing more toward southern FL. Showers will approach inland SE GA, ahead of a front Thursday night, but this period is expected to be dry.

Temperatures will be above normal this period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Hazards This Period: strong to severe storm potential Saturday and Saturday night, and frost/freeze potential Monday night.

The high pressure ridge to the south, will keep best moisture and energy associated with the frontal zone to the north Friday into Saturday. However, showers and thunderstorms can be expected for all but coastal north central FL. Temperatures will be above normal Friday through Saturday.

A stronger low pressure wave will move to the north of the area Saturday night into Sunday, pushing a cold front southeast across the region. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected with this frontal passage. High temperatures will likely be above normal on Sunday, but with frontal timing, it may be a non diurnal temperature curve with highs earlier in the day then falling.

Given the strength of the front, and the warm airmass in place ahead of it, a few strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday into Saturday night.

High pressure will build to the northwest Monday, then overhead on Tuesday.

An unseasonably cool airmass will advect in for Sunday night through Tuesday. An inland front/freeze will be possible Monday night.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Mainly VFR conds still on track through the 18Z TAF period. SCT to BKN strato-cu clouds continue to stream onshore and impact the coastal TAF sites of SSI/JAX/CRG/SGJ, but CIGS remain generally in the 3500-4000 ft range with strato-cu deck breaking up early this evening around sunset. Light and variable winds expected tonight which will lead to fog chances, but current NBM probs of MVFR vsbys still remain in the 20-40% range around sunrise Wed morning, but be worth at least a TEMPO group in the upcoming TAF package. South winds increase close to 10 knots late in the TAF period between 15- 18Z on Wednesday.

MARINE

High pressure over the Carolinas will shift southeastward and offshore tonight and Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop while gradually strengthening as this Atlantic high pressure center extends its axis westward across the Florida peninsula. Winds will become southwest Thursday and Friday and increase close to Small Craft Advisory levels on Saturday ahead of the next cold frontal passage expected late Saturday Night.

Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk at area beaches expected the next couple of days due to onshore flow and some increased long period swells beginning today and continues the rest of the week with periods of about 11 or 12 seconds. The higher end risk of rip currents is mainly limited to the northeast FL beaches today, Wednesday and Thursday with surf/breakers in the 3-5 ft range, some decrease in the surf/breakers to 2-4 ft is expected by Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas of high dispersions each afternoon through Monday - MinRH levels could reach critical levels early next week

High pressure ridging will prevail through Friday. A cold front will move across area late Saturday through Saturday night. High pressure will build early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog potential Tonight, and again Wednesday night. A round of showers and thunderstorms expected from Saturday through Saturday night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. An inland frost/freeze is possible Monday night.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures this week into next weekend.

Thu, February 19th: KAMG: 82/2018

Fri, February 20th: KJAX: 86/1961 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014 KCRG: 83/2014

Sat, February 21st: KJAX: 86/2019 KGNV: 89/2019 KCRG: 84/2019

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 49 76 56 80 / 0 0 10 40 SSI 53 71 55 73 / 0 0 10 30 JAX 51 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 53 77 55 78 / 0 0 10 20 GNV 53 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 30 OCF 54 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.