textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local NorEaster Conditions Through Thursday. Gale Force Winds Across the Coastal Waters Throught Wednesday Night. Life Threatening Coastal Hazards through the End of the Week. Frequent, Strong Rip Currents and Rough Surf (up to 13 ft Wed/Thurs). Minor Beach Erosion Possible. Waves of Beneficial Rain For Coastal Northeast FL Through Wed Night

- High Fire Danger For Inland Southeast GA this Afternoon

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Windy Coastal Conditions through Tonight

- High Risk of Rip Currents

- Critical fire weather conditions over inland GA

- Isolated thunderstorms possible for portions of Northeast FL

The region will be between an inverted trough to the south and strong high pressure to the north through Tonight. The gradient between these two weather features will result in elevated and gusty winds, especially at the coast. Weak troughs will develop in the onshore flow and move ashore this period, bringing shower potential. The overall coverage of the rain will shrink to focus more on coastal areas Tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy Conditions Wednesday and Breezy/Gusty Thursday

- Mostly beneficial rainfall for portions of Northeast Florida

A robust surface high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard will work in concert with an inverted trough offshore to enhance the local gradient and continue windy conditions, especially along the coast Wednesday. The strong onshore flow will continue and an extension to the Wind Advisory through Wednesday will likely be necessary. Winds inland will be comparably less than along the coast but frequent gusts are likely to reach the 35-40 mph while coastal areas may reach top gusts near 45-50 mph. By Thursday, winds will be remain breezy to gusty but the gradients will slowly decompress as the strong surface high shifts off to the northeast allowing winds to ease up.

Gloomy, windy conditions Wednesday will also be accompanied with rain, mainly across coastal NE FL as some low level moisture and convergent flow interact with lift offered by another passing shortwave moving through the broader cyclonic mid level flow. Though convergent flow will keep some shower activity along the coast through Thursday the departing wave and the backside subsidence should lean towards drier conditions for the rest of the area.

Due the cloudy, gloomy, rainy conditions temperatures will be on the cool side again Wednesday with highs in the low 70s. Some warming is expected inland as skies break into filtered sunshine in the afternoon allowing highs to push into the mid/upper 70s while the cast remains in the low 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy onshore winds Friday - Warming temperatures and sunny conditions this weekend

Another area of surface high pressure treking across the Great Lakes and then off to the northeast US coast through the weekend. This will continue the onshore breeziness through Friday but winds will begin to gradually decline as upper ridging begins to build overhead through the weekend and gradients decompress. As heights rise aloft, it'll kick off a warming trend over the weekend with inland temperatures rising back to the mid 80s for highs. Strong subsidence and a dry airmass aloft will keep conditions rain free through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Restrictions in stratus and rain to continue this morning into the afternoon. A brief break in restrictions is expected this evening, before the lower stratus returns Tonight.

Winds will be elevated and gusty throughout this period.

MARINE

High pressure ridging down the southeastern seaboard will be reinforced this morning, with strong onshore winds then continuing through the week and intensifying to Gale Force today through Wednesday night. The strong winds with a long fetch will build seas to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will gradually weaken through Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves away before much improved conditions developing this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

An initial surge of northeast winds this morning will lead to High Risk of Rip Currents today with surf building 4-6 feet by this afternoon. Prolonged onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through the entire week. The strongest winds are expected Wednesday and surf is expected to build to 10-13 feet during this period. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life- threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible after days of rough surf.

FIRE WEATHER

RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS - Of Inland Southeast Ga

NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA WEDNESDAY - And Windy Conditions Areawide

HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS FOR INLAND SE GA TODAY BECOMING - Widespread On Wednesday

Substantial, long duration wind event will begin today with the windiest conditions along the coast where a Wind Advisory is in effect Today for gusts 40-50 mph. Farther inland Red Flag conditions are expected as dry air, gusty winds, and high dispersion will align this afternoon. Elsewhere, higher humidity is expected. Stronger high pressure will build from the north Wednesday, increasing winds further on Wednesday allowing afternoon gusts to reach near 40 mph inland. Despite humidity values above critical, windy conditions will influence any existing or new ignition. Waves of light rain are expected through Wednesday but accumulating rainfall will generally be less than half an inch and focus mostly across northeast FL. Winds will finally begin to relax Friday into the weekend as temperatures trend warmer and humidity lower.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 51 70 50 / 20 0 10 20 SSI 70 60 67 59 / 50 10 40 30 JAX 70 58 70 58 / 70 20 60 40 SGJ 70 62 72 63 / 90 50 80 60 GNV 67 57 72 58 / 70 30 60 40 OCF 68 60 72 61 / 70 20 70 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-124-125- 132-137-138-233-325-333-433-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>135-149. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470- 472-474.