textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents This Weekend

- Daily Thunderstorm Chances This Weekend. Isolated Storms Along I-75 This Evening. Isolated Strong To Marginally Severe Storms Possible Along I-75 Corridor. Daily Afternoon Storms Expected Tuesday Onward, Best Chances Shift Toward The I-95 Corridor After Wednesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High risk of rip currents at area beaches - Dry conditions will elevate fire weather concerns inland areas

Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 90s inland today, while the Atlantic sea breeze keeps coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s. The sea breeze will push inland this afternoon, increasing southeasterly winds and sparking up showers west of I-95, with increased activity 30-50% chance of precipitation) near north central FL and the I-75 corridor this evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in that general area, but strong to severe storms are unlikely. Convection will begin to dissipate after sunset. Cloud cover will gradually increase overnight, with mild low temperatures forecast in the upper 60s to low 70s tonight. There is a low chance for some patchy inland fog in the early morning hours.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Weather Concerns this Period:

- Isolated strong to marginally severe storms along the I-75 corridor Sunday afternoon/evening

- High rip current risk at the beaches each day

The region remains on the western periphery of a Bermuda high maintaining southeasterly flow. Higher moisture (PWATs 1.5-1.7 in) over the area will increase convective coverage along the inland moving sea breezes on Sunday. Given the southeast flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will be dominant resulting in the sea breeze merger occurring along the I-75 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours. A few storms may be strong to marginally severe along the merger due to enhancements from a passing shortwave aloft. The main concerns with convection will be slow storm motions leading to locally heavy rain and potential for strong downburst winds of 40- 60 mph. Outflow interactions may continue showers and isolated storms into the late evening with activity fading by midnight. Drier air (PWATs < 1 in) filters in Sunday night into Monday hindering convection for Monday.

Due to the onshore flow, cooler high temperature readings are expected at the coast each day in the mid 80s, whereas inland counties are likely reach the low 90s. Overnight the opposite will be true, more mild temps will be favored at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Weather Concerns this Period:

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms expected along the sea breeze merger

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely through the first half of the upcoming week.

The upcoming week will set up into a "standard" sea breeze setup as the Bermuda ridge becomes established. The western extension of the ridge axis is progged to lay to the north, allowing moisture to return in the southeasterly flow through at least Thursday. Over those few days, total precipitable water will rise gradually from around 1.2" to 1.5". The inland-directed flow will continue an Atlantic dominant sea breeze, keeping the best chances for diurnal convection focused inland toward the I-75 corridor where sea breeze mergers are more likely to occur.

By Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to flatten and send the low level ridge axis southward, resulting in a more central sea breeze merger between the US 301 and I-75 corridors. Another shift in the sea breeze merger is expected Friday as steering flow becomes southwesterly ahead of slowing front. This'll place the best chances for robust convection toward the I-95 corridor. Given the pattern and trend in guidance, it's unlikely the cool front will make it into the forecast area next weekend.

Otherwise, beneath an amplified upper ridge temperatures will be slightly above normal through next week, except at the beaches where the onshore flow will likely keep afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through tonight. East to southeast winds will increase today with the East Coast sea breeze to 10-15G20 knots this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible near GNV this evening, placed VCTS for now. Winds fade to 5-10 knots along the coast after sunset and 5 knots or less at inland locations. Patchy fog possible at GNV and VQQ Sunday morning.

MARINE

High pressure ridge will set up north of the local waters today and east to southeast winds will then strengthen this afternoon, likely resulting in a period of Caution conditions through the evening hours. High pressure will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states from Sunday through the middle portion of next week, keeping a persistent onshore wind flow with late afternoon and evening wind surges expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in this weather pattern during the early to middle portions of next week. A frontal boundary will then move over the southeastern states late next week resulting in gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents:

Onshore East to Southeast flow at close to 15 knots through the weekend will continue a High Risk of Rip currents with surf in the 2 to 4 feet range and will likely continue into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Today And Early Next Week

Bermuda high pressure will establish and lead to a dominant Atlantic sea breeze over the next several afternoons. The Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze collision will occur along the I-75 corridor this evening and Sunday evening. Isolated storms are possible this evening with greater coverage and potential for strong to severe storms possible Sunday evening. Winds in the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze will increase with gusts around 15 mph and possibly up to 20 mph at the coast. The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland this afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will be possible early Sunday morning. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening along the I-75 corridor; storms will be capable of erratic, strong gusts in excess of 40 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 91 67 89 65 / 20 10 30 10 SSI 83 73 84 73 / 10 0 10 0 JAX 88 70 88 70 / 20 0 20 0 SGJ 87 72 87 73 / 10 0 10 0 GNV 94 69 92 69 / 40 30 60 30 OCF 93 69 90 70 / 50 30 70 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.