textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Danger Conditions Today. Be Very Cautious with Outdoor Fires Check for Local Burn Bans as Severe to

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue at Inland Locations

- Freeze Watch Inland Late Tonight Into Early Saturday Morning. Mainly Inland Southeast GA. Patchy Frost across Inland Southeast GA into the Suwannee Valley

- Small Craft Advisories through This Evening

- High Risk for Rip Currents at NE Florida beaches Today

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure to the northwest will become centered to the north Tonight. The position of the high will yield an onshore flow along the coast. The air moving over the relatively warmer coastal waters Tonight will result in a sharp gradient in temperatures from east to west. Lows will range from the lower 30s over inland SE GA, to the upper 40s over coastal NE FL.

A light freeze with frost can be expected over inland SE GA, and patchy frost for the Suwannee valley of NE FL.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Saturday, high pressure will shift east from central appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coast. East to northeasterly flow between the inverted trough to the east and strong high pressure to the north to northeast will bring breezy easterly winds 10-15 mph with gusts higher 25-30 mph from the pinched local pressure gradient. Onshore low level flow will moderate moisture levels enough to erode the very low dewpoints while Atlantic stratocumulus clouds stream onto the coast and inland across much of NE FL. Warmer highs expected compared to Friday with low/mid 60s over SE GA, upper 60s along I-10 and much of the coast with low 70s across north central FL.

Saturday night, southeasterly flow aloft will end potential for temperatures near freezing with lows only falling into the 40s inland and the upper 40s and low 50s over NE FL, but more moderate over the coast in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Sunday, a potent shortwave trough will swing through the Great Lakes with an associated surface low moving across MI to southern Ontario, while ridging aloft shifting well into the Atlantic waters pulls surface high pressure well away to the northeast. Inverted troughing will persist to the east as a cold front approaches from the west, lifting a warm front into central FL with light easterly to east northeasterly winds veering southwesterly over inland SE GA where a quick shower is possible as southerly flow aloft increases moisture levels. Highs will rebound into the low/mid 70s over SE GA and the upper 70s to near 80 over NE FL.

Sunday night, as the cold front nears the area, skies will become mostly cloudy with light east to northeast winds, but only isolated showers due to weak convergence ahead of the front. Lows will be in the low 50s for SE GA and the mid to upper 50s over NE FL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Monday, mid/upper level shortwave trough will exit the NE US and support a cold front drifting south, then stalling across NE FL as strong high pressure shifts into the OH valley with northeasterly winds. Rain chances will not be too significant Monday with pops 20- 30 percent. Strong high pressure building across the OH valley with bring a contrast of high temperatures north of the stalled front with mid to upper 60s over SE GA, but warming into the upper 70s into north central FL.

Tuesday, a strong shortwave trough moving swiftly eastward from the southern plains into the TN valley will spur a developing surface low across the deep south states that will move ENE to the Carolinas by late in the day. A strong cold front will move eastward along the Gulf coast with increasing low level jet winds of 40-50 knots that may contribute to stronger T'storm forming if enough instability occurs. This low CAPE high shear (around 45-55 knots of 0-6km bulk shear) setup will be monintored closely, especially as the exact track of the surface low becomes better defined over the weeekend. Strong convergence along the cold front and PWATs rising above the 90th percentile (over 1.75 inches) will support numerous to widespread showers and isolated T'storms. Overall rainfall amounts will average near a quarter to a half inch with amounts lessening into the NE FL coast and north central FL, through high end NBM guiidance supports locally heavier amounts of 2-3 inches across inland SE GA. Highs will warm into the mid/upper 70s over NE FL and and low 70s over SE GA cooling into the upper 60s near the Altamaha river.

Wedneday, surface high pressure will build across the TN and OH valleys with a cooler and drier airmass filtering into the region through Thursday as the high builds to the north. Highs will be in the 60s each day with lows in the 40s inland and 50s along the NE FL coast/north central FL Wednesday morning and upper 30s to low 40s inland Thursday morning to low 50s along the NE FL coast.

Friday, another storm system will develop along the Gulf coast with a warm front lifting north towards the area from the south. Limiting pops to the 20-40 percent range due to uncertianty in the track and timing of this next system. Increasing clouds and easterly winds will limt highs to near to a little below normal in the 60s over SE GA and into NE FL with low 70s into north central FL.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail this period. Winds will be gusty during the day time hours Today and Saturday.

MARINE

High pressure to the northwest Today, will become centered to the north Tonight, then northeast on Saturday. The high will track away Saturday night into Sunday, as weak troughing develops over the coastal waters. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf Monday into Monday night, with its cold front moving southeast across local area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure will build behind this system for mid week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Saturday NE FL High Saturday

..AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY

Strong high pressure will build north of the region through tonight with a very dry airmass remaining over the area producing Min RH values 15-20 percent through late this afternoon. The critically low RH values and winds from the north 10-15 mph will produce near elevated fire weather conditions. Moisture will recover Saturday as high pressure shifts more to the northeast near the Mid Atlantic coast with breezy northeast winds turning easterly and breezy by afternoon 10-15 with gusts to 25-30 mph, but with min RH levels above critical levels. Increasing surface and transport winds will create areas of high daytime dispersions. Sunday, light easterly winds will turn south to southwesterly further inland as a cold front approaches from the west. Weaker surface and transport winds will produce fair dispersions. Chances for showers will increase Monday as a cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger storm system will bring the potential for isolated strong T'storms with a wetting rainfall across most of the area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A light freeze expected tonight into early Saturday morning across inland southeast Georgia with areas of frost into the Suwannee Valley. Significant fog is not expected over the next few nights.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 29 62 43 73 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 44 65 53 72 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 37 68 51 78 / 0 10 0 10 SGJ 47 70 59 77 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 37 71 51 81 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 39 72 53 80 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for GAZ132>136- 149-151-152-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ452- 454-472-474.