textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk all local beaches over Holiday Weekend

- Daily Mainly Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Best Coverage Inland Areas this evening. Saturday: Isolated Severe Possible Southeast GA. Main Storm Hazards: Localized, Brief Flooding, Wind Gusts up to 50 mph

- Daily Heat Index 95-105F through Weekend

- Historic Drought & Elevated Wildfire Danger Continues

UPDATE

Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue over the western part of the forecast area where an instability axis remains with MLCAPE values there of about 1000-1500 J/kg. Main update was to refine the POPs a bit this evening and then extend the threat of isolated showers and storms longer into the night til about 4-5 AM based on consensus blend of guidance. No other major changes were needed.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Afternoon Heat Indices 95-100 degF - Inland storms into the evening, mainly SE GA - High Risk for Rip Currents NE FL Beaches

Showers and storms will continue to develop across inland areas through late afternoon and into the evening as the sea breezes and outflow boundaries interact over a diurnally unstable airmass. Storm motion was weak and < 5 kts across northeast FL where east coast sea breeze convection across Flagler and St. Johns counties was slowly developing inland with cells training S-N bringing periods of heavy rain. Faster SSW to NNE storm motion of around 10 kts was across our western counties where west coast sea breezes storms were already pressing inland across the Suwannee River Valley.

Through this evening, the best coverage and chances of isolated strong pulse storms will focus across inland southeast GA where boundaries coverage and an approaching mid level short wave trough from the west brings added lift into the evening. Sea breeze storms across NE FL will focus between Highway 301 and Interstate 75 into the early evening, but storms over SE GA may last a bit longer toward 10-11 pm given the passing short wave trough energy aloft. The main hazards in today's storms will be localized, briefly flooding rainfall due to slow storm motion and localized gusty wet downburst of around 40 mph given some mid level dry air hanging around in the 700-500 mb layer and precip loading, but bulk shear, mid level lapse rates and upper level instability profile are not favorable for severe storm risk today.

Convection fades inland by midnight with just a low 10% of fading showers near the Southeast GA Altamaha River basin. Otherwise, dry conditions after midnight with localized patchy fog/mist especially where rainfall occurred today. Muggy and mild lows fall to near 70 well inland across southeast GA to the low/mid 70s toward the Atlantic coast under passing high clouds.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily thunderstorms each afternoon and evening - Isolated Strong T'Storms Possible Inland - Hot and humid conditions

Southeasterly to southerly winds through the weekend as a ridge of High pressure sits over the region. Moist marine air will bring PWATs soaring in the 1.8-2.1 inch range. The increase moisture and a few passing shortwaves aloft, will bring an increase in convective coverage along the inland-moving sea breezes each afternoon and evening this weekend. The overall flow will allow for the sea breezes to converge mainly between I-75 and HWY 301 corridors. Isolated strong storms will be possible both days. Storms will linger into the evening and drift eastward toward the I-95 corridor. Best chances for stronger storms will be over inland SE GA. Hazards for any storms that do develop include wind gusts up to 50 mph, locally heavy downpours leading to brief flooding concerns will be possible, and of course frequent lightning.

Above seasonable temperatures continue with daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Peak heat indices will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows will drop down into the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid 70s for areas near the shoreline.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

- Hot temperatures continue into early next week - Chances of showers and storms each day

The high pressure ridge axis across the southeast states and the western Atlantic will gradually shift southward through the next week. Some drier air filters in Monday into Tuesday reducing storm coverage to more scattered, but could still . Coverage increases mid to late week with the return of moisture and a decrease in subsidence. Hot temperatures will persist through Tuesday with inland highs in the lower 90s, and east coast highs in the mid to upper 80s. Max temps may trend a little lower mid to late week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Isolated showers or storms still possible near GNV this evening but otherwise mainly debris clouds around tonight with some lower clouds developing near 1-2 kft through the early morning. MVFR cig/vsby is possible around VQQ late tonight. Moisture will be higher on Saturday and with daytime heating should see a widespread cumulus form by 14z or 15z, and may see a few pop-up showers developing from about 15z to 17z. Better chances of afternoon and evening showers and storms for all the TAF sites compared Friday. We started to mention VCTS by 17z-18z, and then PROB30 group with MVFR TSRA. Further refinement for the convection likely in subsequent TAFs. Breezy ESE winds continue this evening and then decrease after 04z. After 13z Saturday morning, south-southeast winds increase to 6-10 kt by late morning and turn more southeasterly after 18z at 8-12 kt.

MARINE

South to southeast winds continue across the local waters through mid week next week with the Bermuda ridge axis lingering north of the local area. Late afternoon and evening nocturnal wind surges are expected daily with periodic Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through next week. Saturday, there is an increase chance of rain during the afternoon and early evening over the local Atlantic waters.

Rip Currents:

Southeasterly surge this afternoon will elevate breakers to 3-4 feet and lead to a High Risk of rip currents this afternoon, for the NE FL beaches. Due to the high number of beachgoers during the holiday weekend and persistent pattern, a high risk of rip currents will continue through the weekend and expand to include southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient south and southeast transport winds will result in generally good to very good dispersions each afternoon through the weekend. Moisture continues to filter into the area keeping Min RHs above critical values. The sea breezes will shift inland each afternoon developing showers and thunderstorms that continue into the evening hours. In the south- southeast flow, the sea breeze merger will likely be between the I- 75 and US 301 corridors in the late afternoon into early evening. Storm coverage increases over the weekend especially across southeast Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into this weekend. Erratic winds during periods of thunderstorms

CLIMATE

While record highs are not anticipated over the next several days despite the upward trend, the very mild low temperatures (lower to mid 70s) may result in some record warm minimums at Jacksonville, Craig Airport, and Gainesville. This pattern starts today and continues into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 69 89 68 88 / 50 90 70 90 SSI 76 87 76 87 / 10 20 40 60 JAX 75 92 74 90 / 10 50 30 70 SGJ 76 90 75 89 / 0 30 30 40 GNV 73 93 72 91 / 10 70 50 80 OCF 74 92 73 90 / 20 70 60 80

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Saturday through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.