textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Thunderstorms through Wednesday. Few Strong Storms are Possible, with Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail. Localized Flooding Possible Due to Slow Storm Movement at Inland Locations

- Patchy to Areas of Fog Early Tuesday morning, Mainly Inland. Locally Dense Fog Expected at Times

- Strengthening Onshore Winds & Increasing Marine Hazards from Thursday. High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough Surf Expected at Area Beaches. Minor Coastal Flooding Around Times of High Tide Beginning Late Thursday

UPDATE

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are slowly coming to an end with the loss of daytime heating, with an overall similar night expected tonight as compared to last night. Onshore flow is expected to be just a bit lighter tonight, and therefore expecting fog and low clouds to develop over inland areas after midnight. Otherwise, a muggy and mild night with lows mostly in the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms

- Strengthening Northeasterly Conditions Wednesday and Wednesday Night

Northeasterly winds will bring isolated showers onshore Tuesday morning, with coverage expanding inward through the day as the sea breeze pushes inland. Isolated storms will be possible primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. Not a significant strong storm threat, though very high PWATs will result in heavy rain/minor flooding being the primary hazard potential in addition to some gusty downbursts and perhaps some isolated small hail. Above average temperatures in the low 90s inland will continue, with coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s. Similar high temperatures are expected again on Wednesday.

Onshore flow begins to strengthen further on Wednesday as a front approaches as well, increasing precipitation coverage, especially near the east coast. A secondary surge of breezy northeasterlies develop Wednesday Night as the pressure gradient tightens with high pressure ridging building over the area. This will keep the winds up overnight but especially closer to the coast, where scattered to numerous showers and perhaps an isolated t'storm over the nearshore waters will make it towards the coast and just onshore at times.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Strengthening Northeasterly Winds will Bring Increasing Marine Hazards to Coastal Locations Thursday and Friday

- Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week and Next Weekend

Northerly steering flow and stronger northeasterly surface winds continue on Thursday and Friday, with drier air infiltrating most of the area both days. The stronger onshore winds will bring back coastal hazards such as gusty winds along the coast and St. Johns river, increased rip current risk, and dangerous surf. Thursday, precipitation chances will be mainly limited to the coast and inland areas generally east of the line from Gainesville to Jacksonville. By Friday, PWATs will dip below 1.5" for the entire area, with only isolated showers expected for the northeast Florida coast. Highs will be in the 80s both days, a little warmer on Thursday.

Next weekend looks beautiful, with highs in the lower to mid 80s, mostly sunny skies, and dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Onshore winds begin to calm this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Daytime convection will continue to come to an end over the next 1-2 hours, with the main impacts overnight being areas of FG and low cigs expected, especially inland. Expecting highest impacts at VQQ and GNV in which at least TEMPO IFR is expected. Confidence is lower closer to the coastline depending on how strong the wind stays up overnight, though continued to include at least some mention of BR and low stratus at all terminals. Onshore flow will remain generally weak on Tuesday, with only VCSH included at this time as TSRA chances are generally below 10 percent.

MARINE

A surface trough and an upper level disturbance will lift northeastward tonight and Tuesday, with lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing over local waters. Wednesday into Wednesday night, strong high pressure well to the north will help push a backdoor cold front south through the area, allowing for another round of showers and thunderstorms, and a surge of northeast winds and building seas. This front will then trigger Small Craft Advisory conditions from late Wednesday night through Friday, with potential for Gale Force Wind Gusts from Thursday to early Friday morning. Breezy winds and elevated seas will slowly subside late Saturday night into Sunday.

Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds will keep a lower-end moderate risk in place through Tuesday at all area beaches. Northeasterly winds will gradually strengthen on Wednesday afternoon, creating a higher end moderate risk at area beaches. A surge of north-northeasterly winds and building surf will arrive at area beaches on Wednesday evening, with a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches from Thursday through at least Saturday. A period of high surf conditions will be possible from Thursday afternoon through Friday at the northeast FL beaches, when breakers may build to the 5-7 foot range.

FIRE WEATHER

Onshore flow and poor to fair dispersions are expected on Tuesday before a cool front moves through on Wednesday, bringing a much stronger northeasterly wind surge and moderate to high range changes Wednesday through the rest of the week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast through Thursday, with drier air in place Friday through the weekend.

Fog Potential...Patchy early morning inland fog will be possible through Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Astronomical tides will be on the rise later this week due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon, officially on Saturday, Sept 26th. A northeast wind surge will develop for the coastal areas on Wednesday which will exacerbate the coastal water levels along the Atlantic coast and eventually into the St Johns River. Minor coastal flooding will be possible during times of high tide beginning with the evening high tide on Thursday and likely continuing during high tide cycles through into the weekend. Minor flooding may become possible within the St. Johns River basin as early as Thursday night, and then through the weekend around times of high tide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 70 90 72 89 / 0 30 10 40 SSI 76 86 75 86 / 30 50 40 60 JAX 72 88 73 88 / 20 40 20 70 SGJ 74 87 74 86 / 20 30 20 60 GNV 71 90 72 90 / 10 40 10 50 OCF 72 91 73 90 / 20 30 20 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.