textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Dense Fog Possible This Morning

- Elevated Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches through Thursday

- Near Record High Temperatures Friday & Saturday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Friday into the Weekend

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of the Region

- Small Craft Advisory, with potential gusts of gale force, Sunday through Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure center will continue to gradually nudge south and eastward further into the Atlantic and east of the Florida Peninsula throughout today and tonight, slowly shifting wind direction more south to southwestward through the same period. A fair amount of high cloudiness will persist throughout the morning hours, and combined with a light flow will result in low temps not much lower than currently being observed across the area, with min temps in the upper 40s to around 50 across inland SE GA, lower 50s across inland NE FL, and mid 50s near the coast and St. Johns River. Some patchy fog will be expected near the Atlantic Coast and over parts of inland GA this morning as well, as dew points nudge up a bit with the shift in flow.

For the rest of today, southwesterly breezes pick up inland with more of a south to southeasterly flow right at the coast, continuing the overall warming trend as well as increase in low level moisture across the area. A few isolated showers will be possible during the afternoon hours with the Gulf "sea breeze" given the uptick in moisture, though not a wash out by any means. Despite more high clouds today as well as some diurnal low level cumulus, still expecting widespread mid to upper 70s over the upper Suwannee Valley and inland GA, with readings near to just above 80 likely closer to the St. Johns River Valley. A more south to southeasterly breeze near the coast will keep temps closer to the mid to perhaps upper 70s.

Mostly cloudy skies persist tonight as well as a light southwesterly flow, with even milder lows Thursday Morning in the 50s to near 60. Guidance is also in good agreement with respect to higher chances for a few showers streaming northeast across the region tonight as layer moisture continues to increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary to the northwest, though very little impacts and rainfall would be expected with this activity.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

The synoptic pattern is dominated by broad mid to upper level ridging across the southeast and eastern U.S. this period with a surface high pressure center positioned well to the east of the area. This will result in well above normal temperatures this period with prevailing southwest flow. Models show potential for some isolated to scattered shower activity over west and northwest zones Thursday and into Thursday night, but NBM POPs still seem a bit too high so will nudge down a bit. A frontal boundary will move into the southeast states by Friday which will help increase moisture levels over the west and northwest zones again with some higher POPs in the forecast, but toned them down a bit given the weak forcing noted, with no appreciable shortwave energy aloft at this time. Potential hazard will be nightly patchy to areas of fog during this period.

Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the lower 80s most areas on Thursday, and some mid 80s for Friday. Some uncertainty on the max temps if low to mid clouds hang around longer during peak daytime heating. In any event, record high temps possible on Friday. Climate section is noted below. Low temps generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday night, and Friday night lows only in the lower 60s given the light southwest winds and occasional clouds. But these lows are still not threatening record high mins.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

For Saturday, persistent surface ridge south of the area will continue the above normal temps with high temperatures once again in the 80s with a number of climate sites possibly meeting record highs. Shortwave energy well to the north of the area will help low pressure system north of the area consolidate, and drag an associated cold front to the area during the day on Saturday and into Saturday night. This should lead to increasing showers and potentially isolated thunderstorms as the front enters our area late Saturday. While the moisture is sufficient, instability is a bit lacking with this system and the forcing aloft is not too impressive. Nonetheless, we can't rule out an isolated strong or severe storm. The front will push through the area Saturday night with enhanced shower and isolated thunderstorm chances, with showers lingering into Sunday morning as well before the front moves south of the area by midday Sunday. Blustery with northwest winds of 15-20 mph Sunday afternoon into the evening. An unseasonably cool and dry airmass will advect in mid to late Sunday and into early next week. Much below normal temps Monday and Tuesday, with a inland freeze/frost possible Monday night.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Areas of stratocumulus clouds around 4 kft this morning with some patchy fog around northeast FL and southeast GA. Potential for any significant fog is low early this morning, with reported fog at VQQ suspect, as usual. Mainly multilayered clouds today and VFR clouds will persist until about 05z. The, increased potential for patchy to areas of fog and low stratus, from south to north, with highest confidence in low cigs at GNV. Will likely show IFR beginning around 06z. Rest of the sites have a lower confidence of IFR impacts at this time. For sfc winds, will be a bit breezy today with flow around or just above 10 kts with higher gusts at times this afternoon. Winds will have more of a south to southeast component at the immediate coast near SSI and SGJ. Winds subside again tonight.

MARINE

High pressure will continue to nudge south and east of the region through today and through the end of the week, shifting flow more south to southwest. Patchy sea fog will be possible early this morning along the Atlantic coast. A few showers will be possible each afternoon through Friday night before higher chances for showers and thunderstorms return Saturday and early Sunday with an approaching cold front. Cooler high pressure ridging builds in behind the front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely late in the weekend into early next week.

Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk at area beaches will continue today due to an along/onshore flow and some increased long period swells with periods of about 11 or 12 seconds. The higher end risk of rip currents is mainly limited to the northeast FL beaches today, with surf/breakers in the 3-5 ft range. Some decrease in the surf/breakers to 2-4 ft is expected by Friday, as well as slight decrease in rip current risk as flow becomes more offshore.

FIRE WEATHER

- AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY - MINRH COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK

High pressure ridge will stay south of the area through Friday resulting in a warming trend and prevailing southwest flow. A cold front will move across area late Saturday through Saturday night, ushering in a much colder airmass.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog possible this morning and again tonight/Thursday morning. A round of showers and thunderstorms expected from Saturday through Saturday night. A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. An inland frost/freeze is possible Monday night.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures possible late this week into the weekend.

Thu, February 19th: KJAX: 86/1891 KCRG: 85/1975 KGNV: 88/1924 KAMG: 82/2018

Fri, February 20th: KJAX: 86/1961 KCRG: 83/2014 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014

Sat, February 21st: KJAX: 86/2019 KCRG: 84/2019 KGNV: 89/2019 KAMG: 87/2018

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 77 58 81 62 / 0 10 30 20 SSI 72 57 74 60 / 0 20 20 10 JAX 81 57 83 60 / 0 0 20 10 SGJ 77 57 79 59 / 0 0 20 10 GNV 80 58 83 60 / 0 0 20 0 OCF 80 58 83 60 / 10 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.