textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Widely Scattered TStorms through this Evening. Isolated Strong Storms are Possible. Main Threats: Strong Wind Gusts of 40-55 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes &

- Scattered to Numerous TStorms this Weekend through Early Next Week. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches During the Afternoon Hours

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights For Tonight:

- Isolated evening thunderstorms

- Inland storms developing toward dawn

Remaining evening convection will dissipate early in this period, giving way to a mainly dry night. However, activity is expected to move northeast from the Gulf and affect the Suwannee valley toward dawn.

Lows Tonight in the middle 70s will be common.

SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Possibly Severe Storms Possible

- Locally Heavy rainfall potential This Weekend

A weak frontal boundary across southeast GA Saturday morning will lift northeastward this weekend while a broad mid/upper trough over the area begins to amplify as a stronger mid/upper level trough digs in across the TN Valley. As the boundary lifts northeastward Saturday, this will allow a more moisture-rich airmass with PWATs eventually rising to 2 to 2.3 inches to filter in from the southwest, along with a couple of upper level disturbances to move in over the FL panhandle. Initial Saturday morning convection expected to be over inland northeast FL, but spread east and northeastward in the afternoon. Generally anticipate numerous showers and storms Saturday, and only gradually diminishing in coverage Saturday night.

By Sunday, deep layer flow is all southwesterly up to about 22 kft, with widespread PWATs of 2.1 to 2.4 inches. The high moisture content along with sea breezes will bring numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area both days. Isolated storms may be briefly severe with gusty winds. The other concern will be localized flash flooding, especially in low lying and urban areas. One area that may need to be considered for a flood watch may be part of the Suwannee Valley area, mainly Suwannee, Gilchrist, west Alachua, and west Marion counties. At this time, not enough support to push over to watch with guidance overall showing 3-4 inches possible from this afternoon through Sunday evening which those areas probably can take at this point. However, the area will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

Breezier southwest winds expected Sunday to around 15G25 mph outside/ahead of the shower and thunderstorm areas.

Temperatures will begin the weekend near normal with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s. Additional clouds on Sunday will lead to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s inland to near 90 at the coast and I-95.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Numerous Thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday then decreasing Coverage by Midweek

The forecast period begins with mid/upper level trough over the Appalachians southward to the western FL panhandle / central Gulf Coast with the deep and moist southwest flow continuing. This should yield above average rainfall chances given the flow type and PWATS that are at the 75-90th percentile or about 2.2 inches. As the trough begins to lift away on Tuesday, there may be a gradual trend of lower coverage of showers and storms.

By Wednesday and Thursday, the deep layer trough lifts out and weak high pressure ridging tries to build in. PWATs are expected to drop to near climo values or even slightly below climo. Fairly typical surface ridge will be across the central FL area so the low level flow may be weak still from the southwest on Wednesday and may start becoming south and even south-southeast by Thursday. This pattern, if it materializes, would bring rain chances down to average values or about 30-50 percent.

Temperatures will begin with highs a little below normal Monday and near normal Tuesday, then inland highs will be above normal Wednesday and Thursday with near normal coastal highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s due to onshore southeast flow behind a sea breeze. Lows will remain near normal with lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast with coastal lows to the mid/upper 70s by Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Potential for a few showers and storms this evening, with a mainly quiet overnight forecast. Convective activity is expected to start early Saturday, with storms developing in the morning, and coverage increasing through the afternoon.

MARINE

The region will be between a high pressure ridge to the south, and frontal boundaries to the north through the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: A lower-end moderate rip current risk will develop this afternoon at area beaches as breezy onshore winds develop. Prevailing offshore winds this weekend through Monday will likely yield a low risk at area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersion This Afternoon Inland Areas - Few Strong Storms Possible Through Early Next Week

A frontal boundary is nearly stationary just north of the FL/GA state line across Southeast Georgia today. Prevailing flow is westerly, except for developing southeasterly flow along the east coast behind the afternoon Atlantic seabreeze. Periods of scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon, especially for northeast FL. Isolated to scattered showers and storms should develop over parts of southeast GA as well this afternoon and evening.

For this weekend, the front will lift to the northeast with prevailing southwest to west flow to near a sustained 15 mph at times, with increased coverage of thunderstorms as well. Locally heavy rainfall and a few strong storms are likely.

Southwesterly flow will prevailing again Monday and Tuesday, with high rain chances likely for Monday, dropping lower by Tuesday.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 74 92 72 88 / 10 80 40 90 SSI 77 91 76 90 / 20 70 60 90 JAX 75 91 72 89 / 20 70 40 90 SGJ 75 90 74 88 / 30 70 30 80 GNV 75 89 72 85 / 40 70 50 80 OCF 75 89 73 86 / 60 70 50 80

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.