textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Thunderstorms Each Day Through the Weekend. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding

- Increasing Rip Current Potential Later This Week Through the

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Isolated strong storm possible this afternoon into evening

A closed mid/upper low over northern GA weakens and opens up into a trough today as Atlantic ridging centered north of Bermuda extends southwestward across FL. Drier air (PWATs 1.5-1.7 in) over the area recedes northward as moist SSE flow develops ushering in PWATs of 2 inches back into north-central FL and the NE FL and SE GA coasts. Isolated to scattered showers and storms develop along the inland- moving sea breezes in the late morning into afternoon. Highest chances will be between HWY 301 and I-95 corridors where the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes will likely merge in the late afternoon hours. A few stronger storms will be possible along boundary mergers and could be further enhanced by passing shortwaves aloft coming up from the south. Convection will wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating across most of the area while isolated storms continue across inland SE GA with the lingering passing shortwaves. With clearing skies and calm winds, there may be enough low level moisture to support patchy inland fog in the pre-dawn hours. Around seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards

High pressure extends from the Atlantic across the eastern seaboard as the upper level trough lifts northward. A shift from southwest to southeast onshore flow becomes established as the high pressure builds in. The onshore flow will bring breezy to gusty conditions along coastal locations, with Friday currently looking to have a bit stronger winds. This overall pattern will allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to push well inland each afternoon. Diurnal heating and the Atlantic sea breeze will drive development of scattered showers and isolated strong/severe storms, with numerous showers along the sea breezes mergers near US-301 and the I-75 corridor. With PWATs around 2", through the end of the week, periods of heavy downpours will be possible for any showers and storms that develop which could lead to minor flooding in low lying, flood prone, and urban areas with any slow or training showers or storms. Additionally, gusty downbursts will be possible due to the high moisture levels.

Daytime temperatures will rise to the lower 90s area-wide aside from coastal locations which will be a bit cooler in the upper 80s thanks to the onshore flow. Overnight Lows will drop to the lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards

High pressure will continue to be in position through the weekend. The southeastern flow steadily becomes more southern by the later part of the weekend as the high pressure shifts southward. The Atlantic sea breeze will continue to push well inland each afternoon over the upcoming weekend, with mergers near US-301 and I-75. As a more southerly flow becomes established with the southward shift of the high pressure, both breezes will be make there way inland which will shift development of showers and storms more towards US-301.

Temperatures will be in the lower 90s during the weekend, with warmer temperatures expected at the start of the new week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Light and variable winds early this morning become south- southeasterly of 5-10 kts after 16Z. Scattered showers and storms develop once again as the sea breezes shift inland this afternoon. Have PROB30s to cover stronger storms that could briefly lower conditions. Convection wanes after 23Z.

MARINE

High pressure centered over Bermuda will build westward toward the U.S. east coast through the weekend shifting flow from southeasterly today to more easterly late this week and into the upcoming weekend. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will also continue daily, some of which will produce gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning strikes.

Rip Currents: A wind shift to a more southeast/onshore flow along with some increase in long period swells will build surf/breakers to 2-3 feet by mid-week with a Moderate rip current risk expected and potentially surf/breakers of 3-4 feet by Friday into the upcoming weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

South to southeasterly winds will allow for scattered showers and isolated storms to develop as the sea breezes move inland and merge around the US-301 and I-95 corridors. A predominantly onshore flow develops through the end of the week and into the weekend leading to afternoon convective activity shifting a bit more westward as mergers occur between the US-301 and I-75 corridors. Isolated strong thunderstorm potential will remain each afternoon with storm outflows causing sudden and erratic wind shifts, locally stronger winds, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning in and near thunderstorms. Dispersions will be in the good range today with fair to good values this week through Friday.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with patchy fog possible as winds wane during the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 93 73 92 73 / 30 40 70 20 SSI 90 78 89 79 / 20 10 50 10 JAX 91 74 91 75 / 40 20 50 10 SGJ 89 75 90 77 / 30 20 40 10 GNV 90 72 92 73 / 40 10 60 10 OCF 90 73 91 73 / 40 10 60 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.