textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Widespread Dense Fog This Morning, Again Tonight. Long-Duration Sea Fog Today, Thursday and Friday. Areas of Dense Fog Likely Each Night & Morning through the Upcoming Weekend

- Breezy Onshore Winds Continue into the Weekend. High Rip Current Risk for Northeast FL Beaches Today and Thursday

- Record High Temperatures Possible Thursday through Sunday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:

- Widespread dense fog this morning will lift during the mid to late morning hours before sea fog spreads inland again late this afternoon and evening.

Widespread dense fog will extend across much of the area through the morning hours with visibility 1/4 mile or less, potentially near zero, through at least 9 AM before improvements begin. Due to the lack of boundary layer winds, it may take longer for the stratus and light fog to fully mix out through the morning and it may not mix out for the coastal zones.

Low level ridging will be shifting east toward Bermuda through today, which will turn the flow more easterly (directly onshore) through the afternoon. As sea fog is likely to persist through the day, it is likely this afternoon and evening will be a repeat of last night as sea fog is advected inland during the late afternoon and reaching the I-95 corridor during the early evening (6-8pm). Even with a light east wind, dense fog and low visibility is expected again this evening. Dense fog bank will advect inland again through the night, requiring additional Dense Fog Advisory headlines this evening and overnight.

Though coastal stratus/sea fog and onshore flow will keep the coastal areas in the low/mid 70s, inland areas are expected to read in the lower 80s. Increasing dewpoints and another widespread dense fog event expected tonight will keep lows around 60 degrees tonight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Warming trend continues into the end of the week, record highs possible.

- Scattered showers push inland during the afternoon hours

- Nightly Fog, Possibly Locally Dense

High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to keep coastal locations cooler than inland locations as southeasterly winds brings cool marine air onshore. Warmer air away from the coast will bring warmer than normal temperatures for inland locations, reaching into the mid to upper 80s, where some locations may tie or break their record highs. With the onshore flow, isolated to scattered showers along the coast. By the afternoon hours, showers will move inland as the sea breeze picks up, with activity mainly focused along north central FL on Thursday afternoon. Friday afternoon, enough moisture along the sea breeze will push further towards inland locations with the spread of isolated to scattered showers expanding towards inland NE FL, the Suwannee Valley Region, and into SE GA.

Again the increase in dew points will bring the potential for fog development over the coastal waters, and over inland locations as winds weaken during the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Weather Highlights:

- Onshore flow continues, with coastal showers possible each day.

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue as Record High Temperatures possible.

Same pattern remains in place through the weekend as surface high pressure will be parked east over the Atlantic. With the high to the east, southeasterly onshore flow will continue through the weekend and into next week. Isolated chances of coastal showers each day as the moist marine air filters onshore. The above normal temperatures continue into next week. Could see some inland locations either tie or break their record highs this weekend.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Widespread dense fog and very low stratus event will continue VLIFR visibility through 13z before a gradually improvement in visibility and ceilings through 17z. VFR conditions are expected to develop at inland airfields, west of the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Terminals near the coast (KSSI/KCRG/KSGJ) have potential to stay locked in at IFR levels throughout the day before crashing to LIFR and VLIFR again tonight as the marine fog moves inland once again, as early as 20z. This sea fog will push well inland again reaching I- 95 around 23z/00z and then KGNV by midnight.

MARINE

Dense sea fog will lead to difficult navigation conditions across the waters through the rest of the week. There will be periods over the next few days where fog lifts to stratus but prevailing visibilities will generally be low. Sea fog is likely to continue through the weekend as warm, moist air is pushed across the water by southeasterly flow. Fog will be concentrated within the nearshore waters but is also expected at times offshore the southeast GA coast. Otherwise, surface high pressure will remain fairly stationary, near Bermuda, throughout the next week.

Rip Currents: Breezy northeasterly winds and breakers of 3-4 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches will create a higher end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches this afternoon and on Wednesday. Persistent and breezy onshore winds and gradually building surf will likely result in a high risk of rip currents at the northeast FL beaches on Thursday and Friday, with a higher end moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches. An elevated rip current risk will continue through the weekend and into early next week at area beaches as persistent southeasterly winds prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Temperatures will warm to above normal levels through the remainder of the week and the weekend, with inland locations reaching near record high levels. Onshore flow will bring moist marine air towards inland locations, keeping RH values above critical levels through the weekend. Scattered showers may pulse along the sea breeze as it moves toward I-75 each afternoon beginning Thursday. Given the dry air aloft, there will be low chances for thunderstorms with the sea breeze shower activity. Dispersion will be good through the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog will continue to push inland during the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Patchy fog to areas of fog possible again Thursday and Friday mornings.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 4: KAMG: 86/1961

March 5: KJAX: 87/2020 KGNV: 87/1997 KAMG: 87/1989 KCRG: 88/2020

March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961

March 7: KGNV: 88/2023 KAMG: 86/1956

March 8: KJAX: 86/1974 KGNV: 88/1921 KAMG: 86/1974 KCRG: 86/1998

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7: KGNV: 66/1935

March 8: KGNV: 65/1973

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 80 57 83 60 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 70 59 72 60 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 78 57 82 60 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 75 60 77 61 / 0 0 20 10 GNV 85 60 87 62 / 0 0 30 10 OCF 85 60 87 63 / 0 0 40 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533- 633. High Risk for Rip Currents from 10 AM EST this morning through late tonight for FLZ125-138-233-333. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-452- 454-470.