textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Storms this afternoon and evening. Main Hazards: Wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall.

- Hot and Humid Conditions Continue into Next Week. Heat Advisory headlines possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Hot and humid with less storm coverage this afternoon/evening - Heat indices 104-108F NE FL/coastal SE GA and 102-106F inland SE GA

Early this morning: Ongoing showers and isolated storms along the FL/GA border southward across inland NE FL will slowly drift towards the E-SE and wash out through 2-3am, leaving mostly cloudy and humid conditions and lows in the 70s. Moist low levels from Sunday's rainfall will support at least patchy to areas of fog over inland areas, with some locally dense fog possible by sunrise across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL.

Monday: Current PWATs in the 2.0-2.3 inch range will shift into the Western Atlantic and will be replaced by more seasonable PWATs in the 1.7-2.0 inch range by this afternoon as West to Southwest steering flow continues. This will lower storm chances slightly this afternoon into the 30-50% range with mainly scattered storms between the I-95 and US-301 corridors as storms will continue movement towards the Atlantic Coast and interact with the East Coast sea breeze along the I-95 corridor and still expect strong to isolated severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60mph. Lower rainfall coverage will lessen the overall flooding threat, but heavy rainfall still possible with quick 1-2 inch totals still possible. Timing of storms still in the 2-8pm time frame.

Models are not in good agreement with rainfall chances and/or timing today, so this will impact potential for Heat Advisory headlines. Guidance is generally supporting lower 90s inland SE GA and Heat indices of 102-106F, and more into the middle 90s for coastal SE GA and most of NE FL with Heat Indices of 104-108F. With abundant clouds to start the day and the trend for the models to under estimate the amount of afternoon convection, will hold off on any Heat Advisory headlines with this package, but any trends towards lower PWATs and delayed and/or lower storm coverage a Heat Advisory may be required for portions of the I-95/US-17/US-301 corridors of coastal SE GA and portions of NE FL to the Atlantic Coast with the pinned East Coast sea breeze.

Monday Night: Any lingering convection in the evening hours should fade earlier than previous nights and end or push into the Atlantic just after sunset. Skies will likely become mostly clear with muggy overnight lows in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic Coast. Lower coverage of rainfall Monday afternoon should lead to lower chances for any fog potential late Monday Night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Slightly lower rainfall coverage Tuesday and Wednesday - Heat Advisory conditions possible

Drier air associated with high pressure from out of the north will extend over the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Models differ on how far south the associated boundary will advance over southeast Georgia and into northeast Florida, however it is expected that convective developments for this period will be reduced compared with earlier in the week with scattered showers and storms following the predominantly zonal flow pattern with stronger developments anticipated along the sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision with more widespread developments occurring . High temperatures going into midweek will be in the lower to mid 90s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 90s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coastline. Heat index values are expected to rise to be over 100 with a likely chance for Heat Advisory conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat Advisory conditions possible through the end of the week and the weekend - More abundant convection on Thursday becoming less widespread by the weekend

More widespread showers and storms are anticipated on Thursday as more moist air along with mild upper level instability crosses over the forecast area. More inhibited convection will be in place for Friday and through the weekend as drier air associated with high pressure extending across the Florida peninsula from out of the east acts to reduce the amount of diurnal convection. Daily high temperatures temperatures are expected to consistently rise to above average levels through Sunday with max temps in the lower to mid 90s. Heat Advisory conditions seem likely through the end of the week and into the weekend as heat index values rise to levels of over 100.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Lingering showers over inland NE FL will drift through the NE FL terminals with brief -SHRA through about 07-08Z, then generally just mid/high clouds and VFR conds, along with low chances of MVFR fog at inland locations towards sunrise in the 09-12Z, mainly at VQQ/GNV. Lower rainfall chances at TAF sites Monday afternoon, but still high enough to include PROB30 groups at all TAF sites for TSRA, mainly in the 18-24Z time frame with potential for MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty winds. Storm chances fade after sunset and expect VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period from 01-06Z.

MARINE

A predominant offshore southwest flow will remain in place this week as frontal boundaries push through the SE US states but continue to stall north of the local waters and high pressure ridge axis remains south of the region. Periods of stronger southwest winds close to Small Craft Exercise Caution levels will be possible during the evening hours. Main threat to boaters will continue to be any offshore moving storms with gusty winds and frequent lightning, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Rip Currents:

Rip current risk is expected to remain on the low side with the predominant offshore flow and surf/breakers 1-2 ft early this week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Values On Today And Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon with a potential for locally heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning, and gusty winds at times. More reduced chances of showers and thunderstorms anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday, as drier air moves into the region. Areas of higher daytime dispersion values are expected for portions of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida today and Tuesday due to higher transport wind speeds and mixing heights.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas that receive heavier rainfall may also experience patchy late-night and early-morning fog.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 92 74 91 73 / 40 20 30 10 SSI 91 78 94 77 / 40 20 30 20 JAX 94 75 97 77 / 40 20 20 30 SGJ 94 76 97 77 / 40 20 20 20 GNV 94 75 95 76 / 30 10 10 10 OCF 94 74 95 77 / 20 10 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.