textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today At All Beaches

- High Risk Possible for Northeast FL Thursday

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue across the entire area

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

-Areas of frost over inland Southeast Georgia Thursday morning

A highly amplified jet stream pattern over the US is keeping a deep trough over the eastern third of the country while strong heat ridging builds over the Desert southwest. The trough over the east will shift closer to the coast through the afternoon as a shortwave pivots into the base of the trough while leading shortwave lifts away into the New England coast. The former of the two features will spread mid to high level clouds across the area this afternoon.

Surface high pressure center lifting away to the northeast will extend a surface ridge axis southwestward through the Carolinas and into GA and the FL panhandle with dry north northeast flow. Coastal troughing will form over the waters off the SE US coast with some isolated showers developing but remaining well offshore to the east. The coastal troughing will allow winds along the NE FL coast to be breezy today 15-20 mph gusting to 25 mph, diminishing slightly 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph for inland NE FL and 5-10 mph over inland SE GA. Despite the initial sunshine, highs will remain below normal today in the low 60s for SE GA and the mid 60s for NE FL to upper 60s across Marion county. Tonight, the shortwave will trough axis will exit to the east with the coastal trough shifting into the offshore FL waters. Diminished coastal winds early this evening 10-15 mph will increase again along the NE FL coast by sunrise to 15-20 mph gusting up to 25 mph. High pressure ridge axis will be just NW of the area creating very light winds under 5 mph along and north of I-10 over inland areas. Skies will be clear after midnight and along with very light inland winds create patchy to areas of frost for inland SE GA and portions of the Suwannee Valley of NE FL as lows fall to the mid to upper 30s there. Lows will moderate towards the coast with low 40s east of highway 301 over NE FL to the mid to upper 40s along the coast due to north to northeast onshore flow.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Areas of frost over inland Southeast Georgia Thursday morning -Moderating temps daily through the end of the week

A chilly and frosty morning will pave the way for below normal temperatures Thursday as dry conditions continue through the end of the week. Highs will be in the 60s for areas closer to the east coast due to an onshore breeze, with locations further inland reaching the low 70s. Temperatures Thursday night will be chilly again, but likely will stay above 40 degrees areawide, so no frost/freeze concerns.

Friday will warm up a few more degrees as high pressure continues to dominate. Again, an onshore breeze will keep coastal highs in the upper 60s/low 70s while inland highs climb into the mid to upper 70s with full sunshine.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming trend late in the period and dry through next Monday - Next chances for rain with a frontal boundary Monday Night & Tuesday

Temperatures will warm up into the 80s this weekend through Monday as surface winds shift southwesterly. Towards the end of this period, Monday into Tuesday, a front will approach from the north. Rain and storm chances generally begin Monday night, lasting through Tuesday, at this time precipitation chances are peaking at about 20% mainly near the Altamaha river basin and east coast. Temperatures behind this front will be a little 'cooler' in the 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

The 18Z TAF period will feature VFR conditions through the entire TAF period. High pressure surface ridge axis to the north will sink a little southward closer to the area with mid to high clouds moving over the terminals this afternoon. North northeast winds 12-15 knots and gusting to around 20 knots near the coast will diminish after 22Z as mid to high level clouds move over the area while inland winds remain around 10 knots gusting to 15 knots until 00Z. Skies will clear overnight with north winds away from the coast 5-10 knots more northeasterly at the coast. WInds will resume breezy 12-15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots along the coastal TAF sites Thursday after 12-14Z and closer to 10 knots inland under few high clouds.

MARINE

High pressure north of the region will wedge down the southeastern seaboard tonight while a coastal trough forms east of the waters with isolated showers offshore. Elevated winds and seas will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions over the Northeast Florida and Offshore Southeast Georgia waters later tonight through Thursday afternoon. Winds and seas are expected to diminish by Friday as high pressure center reforms to the west of the waters before settling over the local waters Friday night into Saturday. The high will sink south of the waters on Sunday into Monday with southwest to westerly winds ahead of a cold front moving into the waters next Tuesday with increasing northeasterly winds and seas.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rips is expected Today as flow becomes N-NE and increases this afternoon with surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. Further increase in N-NE flow tonight into Thursday will lead to a potential high risk of rips for NE FL beaches with surf/breakers into the 3-6 ft range, with a Moderate risk continuing for the SE GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of Critically Low Min Rh Inland Through Friday

Cool and dry high pressure will remain in place through at least the end of the week, which will persist low to critically low daytime RH values through Friday. Dispersions will also be fair to good area wide through the next several days, with primarily northeasterly low level flow trending slightly downward each day. This flow will be strongest further south and east closer to a maritime influence. Conditions look to remain dry with benign weather throughout the weekend as well, with the next frontal boundary approaching sometime Monday Night/Tuesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential is not expected the next couple of days. Patchy to areas of frost over inland southeast Georgia early Thursday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 35 69 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 45 63 50 68 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 40 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 47 65 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 39 72 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 41 73 44 78 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ452- 454-470-472-474.