textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches through Tuesday

- Small Craft Advisories Today and Tonight for Our Local Atlantic Coastal Waters.

- Patchy Fog for Inland Areas on Tuesday and Wednesday Mornings.

- Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Wednesday through early Thursday, With More Widespread Coverage Possible During the Upcoming Weekend.

- Nightly restrictions in visibility from smoke near area fires.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Onshore Winds will Create a Moderate to High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

- Small Craft Advisories through Tonight for Our Local Atlantic Coastal Waters.

- Patchy Fog for Inland Areas Late Tonight, with Areas of Smoke Possible Near Ongoing Wildfires.

A cold front will shift south of our area by mid-morning hours. A stray shower may develop along the boundary. High pressure builds down the eastern seaboard today as a cooler and drier airmass filters in. A brief surge of northeasterly winds develops in the wake of the front bringing gusts of 15-30 mph with the highest gusts expected along the coast. Due to NE winds, highs today will range from the low-mid 70s along the coast to the low-mid 80s further inland. Winds gradually subside tonight as high pressure center shifts southward down the eastern seaboard. Overnight lows will be around seasonable in the mid 50s in inland SE GA to the mid 60s along the coast. Patchy fog may develop across inland areas where winds decouple. Smoke from wildfires will likely spread to the SW today given the breezy NE winds.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Wednesday night):

- Enhanced rip current risk at area beaches.

- Generally dry and warmer conditions.

Mid level (500 mb) ridging over the area on Tuesday supports dry and warm weather and mostly clear conditions expect for some mid to high clouds at times. A surface high pressure system will shift well offshore with a fairly light east and southeast flow. Tuesday night, a mid level disturbance pushes into Al and GA overnight with surface trough developing from the FL panhandle to central GA with sfc flow switching to more southerly. This system and troughing will support a low chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm over inland southeast GA northwest of Waycross. Temps: onshore flow keeps daytime highs limited to 80-85, while inland reaches the upper 80s. Mild overnight lows Tuesday night about 60-65.

By Wednesday and Wednesday night, the ridge aloft weakens as further broadening of trough over the eastern U.S. and influences our local weather. A weak frontal boundary will shift to the southeast states and introduces some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for parts of the area (mainly from I-10 northward) through Wednesday night. Daytime temps climb to the upper 80s to lower 90s given southwesterly flow ahead of the front. Warmer overnight lows in mid 60s Wednesday night. Overall, this marks a transition to a bit more unsettled weather pattern, but though coverage for convection remains relatively low at this time. The best chance of precip does appear to move into southeast GA Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- There are signs of more widespread rainfall Thursday and during the weekend.

For Thursday, a cold front moves into the area producing more organized and therefore higher precip chances than prior days given an influx of moisture and low level convergence. This front will press southward, and then south of the area Thursday night. In the wake of the front, drier air filters in Thursday night, with a north- northeast flow, and diminishing those chances of rain substantially, but partly cloudy skies may still remain. Warm highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with lows quite cooler in the lower to mid 50s inland southeast GA, around upper 50s / lower 60s elsewhere.

On Friday, winds veer a bit and weak high pressure does build in over the area. Some model discrepancy are apparent between the GFS and ECMWF but temps remain slightly cool compared to prior days. Due to the uncertainty, our POPS are not zero and so there remains some possibility of rain/showers, though overall forecast remains dry.

The pattern becomes more complex by the start of the weekend as guidance suggest the front works back northward as surface low development occurs in the Gulf, which lifts the front up as a warm front. This should support increased chances of showers and potential thunderstorms. Of course, timing and placement of the front as well as the timing window when highest rain chances exist are all still in question and will be resolved in the next few days. Check on probabilities, there are high chances of a wetting rainfall but amounts are highly variable and uncertain at this time. In any case, where models agree is that late Sunday night is when we will see the front and surface low move east and southeast of the area so that for the beginning next week of Monday, rain chances will drop off.

Temperatures will be above normal Thursday, with near record high or two possible for northeast FL climate sites. Friday through the weekend, temps will trend near or below normal.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

MVFR ceilings will prevail at the regional terminals through around 21Z, with brief periods of IFR ceilings just under 1,000 feet possible at SGJ and GNV through around 15Z. Confidence was too low to indicate IFR conditions at this time at SGJ and GNV. Ceilings should lift above 3,000 feet at the inland terminals before 00Z, while marine stratocumulus cloud cover streaming onshore likely keeps ceilings in the MVFR range, just under 3,000 feet, at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals through at least 06Z Tuesday. IFR visibilities are likely to develop at VQQ after 06Z, and ceilings may lower back to MVFR at JAX and CRG during the predawn and early morning hours on Tuesday. Confidence was only high enough at this time to indicate prevailing MVFR ceilings at CRG after 09Z. Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 10-15 knots through at least 21Z at the inland terminals, while sustained speeds of 15-20 knots with higher gusts prevail at the coastal terminals. Northeasterly winds will then gradually subside at the regional terminals during the evening and overnight hours.

MARINE

A cold front will pass south of the coastal waters this morning as a brief surge of northeasterly winds develops in its wake. Exercise Caution to marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions expected this morning into evening. Winds subside and shift to easterly on Tuesday as weak high pressure builds across the eastern seaboard. Winds shift to south-southwesterly for mid to late week with the next frontal passage.

Rip Currents:

High risk of rip currents is expected across NE FL beaches today and Tuesday due to breezy NE winds and long period swells. High end moderate risk prevails at SE GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy Daytime High Dispersion Today.

- High Daytime Dispersion Likely Wednesday.

A cold front will press south of the forecast area early this morning, resulting in breezy northeast winds, with sustained winds near 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph, strongest near the coast. Minimum relative daytime humidity values may fall to around 30 to 40 percent west of Highway 301 across southeast Georgia today, and for Tuesday west of the Highway 301 in southeast GA and northeast FL.

Patchy high dispersion values possible over inland northeast FL west of I-75 today, with high dispersion likely on Wednesday ahead of another cold front passage. High daytime dispersion is possible on Thursday as well.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog is possible inland areas early Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and north of I-10 Wednesday and Wednesday night. Better rain chances exist on Thursday for much of the area, and again on Saturday and Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 81 54 87 63 / 0 0 0 20 SSI 72 62 78 67 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 75 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 75 64 81 64 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 84 58 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 85 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450- 452. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ474.