textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches Today and

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values inland each day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread

- Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday

UPDATE

Quiet weather continues with large diurnal ranges in temperature with the dry air in place. Patchy fog, though likely shallow in nature, is expected to develop along the coast where a sufficiently moistened (by the sea breeze) airmass will be. Lows again will rang from the mid 50s to low 60s.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Near record warmth inland areas with highs upper 80s/near 90F

- Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours

- Moderate rip current risk at NE FL/SE GA beaches

Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues today with high pressure dominating over the area. This morning's sounding and current GOES- 19 Total Precipitable Water analysis shows PWATs around 0.6" today. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. High temperatures will range today, with an onshore breeze keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, hotter as you go inland with some locations reaching 90 degrees today before the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland later this afternoon. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds overnight will prompt inland fog development over most of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-95.

SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist

Surface high pressure centered over Bermuda will continue to extend WSW across the FL peninsula as upper ridging remains over the SE US Wednesday into Thursday. Dry conditions, sunny skies and above seasonable temperatures are expected under strong subsidence. Highs will range from the upper 70s/low 80s along the coast to the upper 80s/low 90s inland. Fire risk will remain elevated with the dry conditions and very warm temperatures. The only other noteworthy weather impact will be patchy to areas of fog inland each morning, with patchy "superfog" possible near smoke from any ongoing wildfires. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- The dry weather will persist, with potential record highs Fri/Sat - Morning fog potential to continue each day.

Friday, mid level trough will pass north of the region with west to southwest flow and dry, sunny conditions as the Atlantic seabreeze remains closer to the east coast. Saturday, stacked ridging returns over the FL peninsula with weak southerly flow allowing both Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze to move inland. By Sunday, a deeper mid to upper level trough will move across the deep south, pushing a cold front into the area Sunday night. However, moisture will be limited resulting in a dry frontal passage. Breezy northeast winds and another dry airmass develop in the wake of the front for early next week.

Record high temperatures into the low 90s expected Friday and Saturday with isolated mid 90s over the interior, cooling slightly Sunday into the upper 80s, and then to near normal levels behind the cold front Monday. Lows will be a little above normal during the period cooling to near normal Monday night.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Predominantly VFR conditions forecast, though patchy and shallow fog may develop at coastal airfields as wind calms, leading to temporary restrictions to IFR through 12z. Light diurnal winds will begin with a southwesterly flow at or below 10 knots, shifting east to southeasterly through around 10 knots with the sea breeze. Expect the sea breeze wind shift around 17z at the coast, 18z at KCRG, and around 19z at KJAX and KVQQ with gusts around 15 knots.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. Next frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Monday.

Rip Currents and Surf:

Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day This Week

High pressure over the area will create dry, sunny, and very warm conditions inland through the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Wednesday, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 58 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 86 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 60 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 57 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 57 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.