textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warnings & Frost Advisories Overnight & Early Wednesday Morning. Freeze Warning Area: Inland Southeast GA. Frost Advisory Areas: Portions of Coastal Southeast GA and Portions of Inland Northeast FL. Widespread Frost Expected in the Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory Areas.

- Small Craft Advisory Expected for the Offshore Waters on Wednesday Night.

- Light Freeze and Widespread Frost at Inland Locations on Thursday Night.

- High Risk for Rip Currents at the Northeast FL Beaches This Afternoon. Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches through Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

MVFR ceilings will prevail through around 20Z at VQQ, JAX, and SGJ. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 04Z tonight. Fog and low stratus ceilings will likely develop at VQQ towards 05Z, with LIFR conditions expected overnight through around sunrise on Wednesday. Fog may expand to the JAX and CRG terminals after 08Z, but confidence was only high enough to indicate MVFR visibilities through around 13Z at this time. VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals before 14Z Wednesday. Breezy northeasterly surface winds, sustained at 10-15 knots, will prevail at the regional terminals through around 22Z. Surface winds will then shift to north northwesterly overnight while gradually diminishing, followed by westerly surface winds developing by 14Z and then increasing to around 10 knots towards 17Z Wednesday.

UPDATE

Late morning surface analysis depicts high pressure (1027 millibars) centered over the Delmarva peninsula and extending its axis southwestward across the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. Aloft...broad troughing remains in place across the eastern half of the nation, with a moisture-starved shortwave embedded within this longwave trough currently traversing the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys. Surface ridging wedging down the southeastern seaboard and weak coastal troughing situated over our near shore Atlantic waters helped to advect a deck of low stratus clouds southwestward across southeast GA and portions of northeast FL this morning. Fair skies prevail elsewhere across most of the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. The seasonably low sun angle was only allowing for a slow erosion of this stratus deck, with additional marine stratocumulus cloud cover being generated by weak coastal troughing also advecting onshore along the I-95 corridor. Temperatures beneath the stratus deck were still in the lower to mid 40s across inland southeast GA as of 16Z, with upper 40s and lower 50s elsewhere inland. Breezy onshore winds have kept temperatures in the 50s at coastal locations, with plenty of sunshine allowing values to climb to 55-60 across north central FL. Dewpoints ranged from the mid 30s across inland southeast GA to the low and mid 40s elsewhere.

High pressure centered to the north of our region will slowly weaken this afternoon as it continues to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. This feature will keep a tight local pressure gradient in place along the I-95 corridor through mid-afternoon, keeping breezy north-northeasterly winds in place at coastal locations. The low stratus deck extending from inland southeast GA to portions of inland northeast FL will gradually lift and erode, with marine stratocumulus continuing to advect onshore over the coastal counties and southern portions of the St. Johns River basin this afternoon. Highs will only reach the low and mid 50s this afternoon across southeast GA and along the I-10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and northeast FL, ranging to the lower 60s across north central FL.

High pressure will continue to weaken and will settle directly over our area overnight, setting up radiational cooling at inland locations. A light freeze is expected across inland southeast GA, with frost extending to coastal portions of southeast GA and along the Interstate 10 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and inland portions of northeast FL. Frost advisories have been issued for these locations, with a freeze warning maintained for all of inland southeast GA, where lows will fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Weakening coastal troughing over our local waters will likely maintain a weak northwesterly breeze along the I-95 corridor, keeping lows in the 40s at coastal locations in northeast FL as well as for most of north central FL.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Cooler than normal temperatures continue Wednesday and Thursday with high pressure overhead Wednesday, and a weak cold front moving through the area by Thursday morning. Highs Wednesday will be in the 60s area-wide after a cold and frosty morning, with sunny skies and westerly winds. Overnight, lows will fall into the upper 30s for inland southeast Georgia and 40s elsewhere, not quite cold enough for frost. Thursday will be cooler after the frontal passage, with highs ranging from the mid 50s near inland southeast Georgia, to mid 60s for north central Florida with northwest winds continuing to bring in cooler and drier air. Lows Thursday night will flirt with touching freezing in southeast Georgia, with patchy frost likely.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Dry conditions continue through the weekend, despite a front moving through the area on Sunday. Temperatures will mainly be in the 60s again Friday, before a nice warmup this weekend. Saturday and Sunday highs will be in the low 70s for southeast Georgia and mid to upper 70s for northeast Florida with mostly sunny skies. Monday will be much cooler following the dry cold frontal passage on Sunday, leaving temperatures in the 50s for southeast Georgia and 60s for northeast Florida with breezy northeasterly winds as the pressure gradient tightens. Lows Sunday and Monday nights will dip into the mid 30s over inland southeast Georgia, but likely too windy overnight for frost formation at this time.

MARINE

High pressure centered near the Delmarva region will wedge down the southeastern seaboard through this afternoon, creating breezy north northeasterly winds and elevated seas across our local waters. This high pressure center will weaken as it shifts southward over our local waters tonight and Wednesday morning, allowing for winds to briefly subside. Westerly winds will then strengthen on Wednesday afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching dry frontal boundary, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible offshore on Wednesday night. This front will cross our region late Wednesday night, followed by another high pressure center building over our region on Thursday and Friday. This high pressure center will then shift offshore by early Saturday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will approach our local waters from the northwest on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Rip Currents: Southeast GA: Moderate through Wednesday. Northeast FL: High this Afternoon, Moderate on Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Good dispersion is expected on Wednesday ahead of an incoming dry cold front that will pass through overnight. Thursday winds will shift to northwesterly behind the front with fair to good dispersion forecast. Min RH Thursday and Friday will dip into the 30s, with values improving this weekend. Light and variable winds Friday will leave poor dispersion with patchy low values near north central FL and the Atlantic coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 29 61 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 39 64 45 60 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 37 67 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 47 68 47 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 39 68 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 44 68 46 66 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-120-220-322-422-522. High Risk for Rip Currents until 1 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ154. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ132>136- 149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None.