textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Danger through Thursday. Critically Low Humidity Values Expected Inland Wednesday and possibly Thursday over

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches through Wednesday

- Near Record High Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday

- Breezy with Scattered Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon & Evening. Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Across Inland Southeast GA

- Scattered Thunderstorms Friday through Early Next Week

- Historic Drought Conditions Prevail Across Most of Our Area

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Elevated Fire Danger at Inland Locations this Afternoon. Near Critically Low Humidity Values are Forecast, with High Daytime Dispersion Values for Inland Locations North of Waycross, GA.

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches

Pleasant weather expected for the rest of the day with mostly sunny skies, southeasterly winds, and highs in the mid to upper 80s inland. Onshore afternoon breeze will keep coastal high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s today. Tonight, lows will be in the 60s areawide with some patchy fog possible inland in the early morning hours.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Above Average Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

- Potential for Strong Thunderstorms over SE Georgia on Thursday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

Temperatures will be above average on Wednesday as dry conditions continue, weak southwest flow will allow the east coast sea breeze to keep coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s. Southwesterly winds will increase further on Thursday ahead of an incoming front, preventing the Atlantic sea breeze from providing much relief to the east coast. Highs will be in the 90s inland both days, with the immediate coast reaching the 90s as well Thursday.

Showers and storms will enter inland southeast Georgia Thursday morning, spreading southeastward towards I-10 throughout the day. Currently, strong to isolated severe storms look possible over southeast GA, primarily in the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with rainfall totals forecast to be about 0.5" north of I-10.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm Chances Continue into Weekend

Rain coverage will extend into northeast Florida Friday into the weekend as the cold front stalls over northern Florida and lifts northward as a warm front this weekend. Highest rain and storm chances during this period will be Friday, with a slight gradual decrease through the weekend area-wide. Through the weekend, highest forecast rainfall totals are along and north of I-10. Temperatures will be near to above normal through Sunday, warmest over north central FL (south of the front) reaching the low 90s, upper 70s to 80s elsewhere.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with winds becoming more mild and variable overnight then strengthening from out of the south and southeast on Wednesday.

MARINE

High pressure ridge from Bermuda and across northeast Florida waters will persist through Wednesday night, with increasing onshore winds and caution level conditions possible during the afternoon and evening. A cold front approaches late Wednesday, shifting winds to southwest, with the front moving into the area waters Thursday evening. The front will stall just south of the area on Friday, and then move back north over the weekend. The front will bring with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. Chance of showers and thunderstorms also is forecast for the weekend. Another cold front will approach from the northwest Monday.

Rip Currents:

Persistent onshore winds will become breezy on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with these winds combining with a lingering easterly ocean swell to maintain a higher end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches and a lower end moderate risk at the southeast GA beaches, where surf heights will likely remain around 2 feet. Breezy southwesterly winds should yield a low risk at area beaches on Thursday. Winds will shift to northeasterly on Friday, likely resulting in a moderate risk at area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Dispersions Inland Each Afternoon Through Thursday

Dry weather is expected to prevail area-wide through Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. With the drier airmass behind the recent front, very good mixing inland each day through Wednesday will result in minRH near critically low values during the afternoon and evening, as well as an overall increase in daytime dispersions each day. The next frontal boundary to affect the area will approach Wednesday Night, bring chances of rain mainly for southeast GA on Thursday with lower chances across northeast FL as the front weakens Thursday Night and into Friday. Thunderstorms will also be possible with the front, especially north of about the I-10 corridor.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for:

Wed, May 6: JAX: 96/2012 CRG: 96/2012 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 95/2012

Thu, May 7: JAX: 94/1977 CRG: 94/1977 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 93/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 50 SSI 69 82 70 88 / 0 0 0 20 JAX 63 93 66 95 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 65 88 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 62 94 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 64 94 65 92 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.