textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Daily Thunderstorms through Monday, Mainly During the Afternoon and Evening. Isolated daily Strong to Severe Storms possible. Main thunderstorm hazards: Locally Damaging Wind Gusts, Small Hail & Lightning

- Small Craft Advisory likely for area waters Tuesday through. High Rip current risk possible Tuesday

- Exceptional to Extreme Drought continues Wildfire Risk

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, south of Waycross but especially south of the I- 10 corridor. - An isolated Severe Storm possible mainly over northeast FL this afternoon.

The weak nearly stationary frontal boundary will be across northeast and north central FL today and becomes fairly weak and ill-defined by the evening. Whatever is left from the boundary pushes back north as a warm front by Monday morning as a strong cold front approaches the forecast area from the northwest.

For today, some forcing from mid level disturbances moving west to east in the west-soutwhest flow aloft, a moist airmass with PWAT of about 1.75 inches, front and sea breezes will all help to trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly for the afternoon and evening. The morning hours should have areas of stratiform rain over the nrn 2/3rds of the area per model consensus and will shift off to the northeast by late morning with some patchy morning fog also expected near and before sunrise. For the afternoon, where the heating is greater in northeast FL, a better chance of a strong to possibly severe storm with the main threats damaging winds and some hail. A low but non-zero chance of a brief tornado late afternoon mainly toward the I-95 corridor where a combination of low level shear is best. High temperature forecast is tricky today given where more significant cloud cover sets up. Appears there will be a bit lower temps in the central parts of the area where the cloud cover may be more prevalent. Overall, highs are forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80s today. For this evening, scattered showers and storms will be on a weakening trend, more focused over the northeast FL zones and especially toward the St Johns River Basin area. Isolated showers anticipated by 11pm-midnight. Late in the night, with some slight clearing, patchy fog is expected. Mild overnight lows around 65 to 70 deg are expected.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Stronger Cold Frontal Passage Likely Monday

Monday, the trough axis will shift across the mid south states into the TN and lower MS Valley pushing a cold front eastward across the deep south and Gulf coast and approaching our area in the afternoon. Well above normal moisture levels Broad scale lift and above normal PWATs 1.6-1.8 and increasing lift ahead of the trough will create numerous showers and T'storms initially along the Atlantic seabreeze with an additional wave of showers and T'storms just ahead of the front late afternoon into the evening hours with showers persisting overnight into Tuesday morning as the front slowly sags southeast across the area into the coastal Atlantic waters. Much of the rainfall will fall north and east of a Ocala to Trenton line with totals 1.0-1.5 inches across SE GA and 0.5-1.0 inches along I-95 corridor of NE FL with decreasing totals south of I-10. Despite 0-6 km shear not appreciable at around 30 knots or less, steepening low to mid level lapse rates as mid level temps cool to -10 to -11 C and 850mb winds up to near 30 knots will bring a potential for isolated strong to severe T'storms with gusty winds 40-60 mph the main concern, but small hail is also possible.

Breezy WSW winds 8-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph ahead of the front will bring warm highs into the mid to upper 80s over NE FL with isolated low 90s along the St Johns river basin while SE GA highs remain in the low to mid 80s.

Tuesday, high pressure builds in slowly from the north with breezy northeast winds, but remaining moisture will remain behind the front stalling just southeast of the area with scattered showers south of Waycross and scattered storms along and south of I-10. Low level clouds and cooler northeast elevated onshore flow will limit highs in the mid to upper 70s along the coast and across SE GA with low 80s over inland NE FL warming to mid 80s over north central FL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier Conditions Look to Return Tuesday Night/Wednesday

Wednesday, the high will move to the east northeast as another upstream trough, this one more compact, dives ESE from the Upper plains into the OH valley and Great Lakes. Onshore flow will turn more light and easterly with the Atlantic seabreeze moving well inland. Isolated T'storms will develop over NE FL along the St Johns river basin with scattered T'storms near Ocala National Forest as strong heating and better low level moisture fields will be supportive.

Thursday and Friday, a cold front will drop southward through the area, but should remain dry as high pressure builds to the north through Friday. An overall weak pressure gradient pattern and abundant sunshine will allow for daily seabreeze circulations to return Friday, but no showers expected. High pressure will move eastward into the Atlantic Saturday with daily seabreezes moving inland, but dry air aloft from lingering low level ridging over FL peninsula should mitigate any shower chances.

Temperatures during the period will begin near normal on Wednesday and warm to above normal Thursday through Saturday over NE FL and remain near normal across SE GA through the period.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Areas of rain and showers expected through late tonight and into Sunday morning. Main concerns are the low cigs and vsby developing and so expect good chances of IFR and LIFR for the TAFs except for less chance for SGJ. Cigs will begin to improve by 15z, and anticipate isolated to widely scattered showers by 16z-18z. There will be good chances of showers and storms this afternoon near 18z through 00z, and have included TEMPO group for the mid to late aftn hours.

MARINE

A frontal boundary near the Florida/Georgia border today will slowly weaken and dissipate through tonight. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, with isolated strong to possible a severe thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A stronger cold front will then push into the local waters Monday evening. Northwest to north winds will strengthen late Monday night in the wake of the frontal passage, with winds likely reaching Small Craft Advisory levels which will likely continue into Tuesday night. Weak high pressure will briefly build over the area Wednesday, and then a dry cold front moves into the area on Thursday.

Rip Currents:

A low to moderate risk expected today and Monday with surf that is at or below 2 feet. The risk is higher within a few hours of low risk and especially more prone near sandbars. Next chance of solid Moderate to High Risk of rip currents is next Tuesday and likely Wednesday due to stronger onshore winds and surf conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Dispersions along the Coast Today - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Monday - Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Thursday

Frontal boundary remains across the area today and tonight with light west southwest winds 5-10 mph late this morning pushing the Gulf seabreeze towards highway 301 and Atlantic seabreeze moving to US-17 by mid afternoon. Energy aloft, strong daytime heating, and convergence along the seabreezes/front will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Weak winds and low mixing heights will create low dispersions along the coast today. Another cold front will move southeast across the area Monday into Monday night with more numerous showers and storms as breezy west southwest winds pin the Atlantic seabreeze near I-95 where storms will focus before additional storms later with the incoming front. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential through Monday afternoon with main impacts being gusty winds 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, small hail and heavy downpours.

Tuesday, high pressure builds in slowly from the north with breezy northeast winds, but remaining moisture will remain behind the front stalling just southeast of the area with scattered showers south of Waycross and scattered storms along and south of I-10. High pressure will weaken and shift to the east northeast Wednesday with isolated showers and storms developing along the merging Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes over Northeast FL. Dry cold front moves through Thursday, high pressure will build overhead Friday and Saturday. Dispersions will be high Thursday from higher transport winds and mixing heights.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog this morning for inland locations near and north of the front mostly I-10 northward, but significant fog is not expected. Patchy fog will return over inland areas again tonight especially in areas with locally heavy rain. Gusty and erratic winds expected in and near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 84 65 85 62 / 30 20 60 50 SSI 80 69 84 67 / 50 20 70 70 JAX 83 68 88 65 / 60 30 80 70 SGJ 82 71 88 69 / 60 30 70 70 GNV 86 68 89 67 / 60 20 50 50 OCF 88 70 89 69 / 30 20 20 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.