textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Dense Fog Possible In The Early Morning the Next Couple of Days.

- Elevated Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today through Wednesday.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Friday into the Weekend.

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of the Region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A 1025 mb high pressure system will be situated around the NC Outer Banks early this morning and will shift southeast today, causing our low level winds to transition from northeast-east to east and southeast through the day, providing for a gradual warming trend. Wind speeds today, at most, 10-15 mph, but mainly 5-10 mph. A ridge aloft will also ensure for dry conditions to persist today supporting mostly clear skies except for some cumulus and high clouds. Highs trend to generally the mid to upper 70s for inland northeast FL, lower 70s for southeast GA, and probably confined to the 60s along the coast due to the cool shelf waters in the 50s. Patchy fog has developed inland southeast GA this morning which should dissipate by about 8 AM.

Tonight, the high pressure system will continue to shift shift east and southeast. Low level winds just above the surface expected to become more southerly. Moist grounds from the recent rainfall, light winds, and mid level dry air will probably support some patchy radiation fog at times after midnight, mainly inland. Does not look like a great setup yet for sea fog over nearshore waters and immediate coast given the dewpoints are not high enough but will monitor guidance for any changes. Lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with some mid 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Surface high pressure east of the Florida Peninsula Wednesday will continue to nudge further eastward/southeastward through the rest of the short term period, with a prevailing southwesterly flow and very warm conditions developing. Some guidance has been a bit more aggressive with respect to some isolated showers affecting inland areas, especially on Thursday Afternoon/Evening thanks to a weak/diffuse boundary just north of the region, however given the synoptic setup and ongoing drought conditions, opted to keep conditions dry for all areas Wednesday and only slight chance PoPs over inland areas on Thursday Afternoon/Evening. High temps will be very warm on Wednesday - in the 70s to low 80s, but even warmer and closer to record maximums on Thursday with widespread temps in the upper 70s to low 80s expected except near the immediate coast. Min temps will be mild as well, in the 50s Thursday Morning and upper 50s to low 60s Friday Morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure ridging on Friday and likely through at least Saturday, with a very warm southwesterly flow and dry conditions for most if not all of the region. Though guidance is in agreement with respect to another cold front moving through the region around late next week, the magnitude of impacts and timing is still very much in question at this time. However, the boundary does long strong enough to at least bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the region sometime between Saturday Evening and Monday Morning. Regardless of exact timing, dry and cool conditions look to return by early next week, which includes chances for frost/freezes over the interior after temps well above normal for the start of the long term. Winter is not over yet!

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Vsby restrictions at VQQ early this morning, but otherwise prevailing VFR through this TAF period. Some occasional stratocu clouds today at around 3500 ft early this morning/today. Surface winds will be light northeast near 8 kt or less through 15z, then become east and northeast 5-10 kt. East and southeast winds near 5 kt expected by this evening.

MARINE

High pressure ridge centered from North Carolina down the southeastern seaboard will move southeast today. An northeast and east wind expected today and tonight. High pressure will then shift southeastward and offshore tonight and Wednesday. Southerly winds will develop by midweek while gradually strengthening as this Atlantic high pressure center extends its axis westward across the Florida peninsula. Winds will become southwest later this week, with a few showers possible, mainly across the Georgia waters.

Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk at area beaches expected the next couple of days due to onshore flow and some increased long period swells beginning tonight and continues the rest of the week with periods of about 11 or 12 seconds. The higher end risk of rip currents is mainly limited to the northeast FL beaches today into Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Daily Beginning Wednesday

High pressure will be the dominant weather feature over the next several days as it slowly shifts from north of the region today to east of the area Wednesday - Friday. This will veer wind directions from more onshore today to more south to southwesterly thereafter. There will be slight chances for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm inland north and west on both Thursday and Friday Afternoon/Evening, though most of the area will remain dry until the weekend when the next frontal system approaches. Southwesterly winds pick up Wednesday and remain breezy through the end of the week, which will result in widespread good dispersions and areas of high dispersions. Thankfully, RH values during peak mixing will be in the 40-50+% range daily.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog development is not expected over the next few days, though patchy morning fog and low stratus development will return starting this morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures this week into next weekend.

Thu, February 19th: KAMG: 82/2018

Fri, February 20th: KJAX: 86/1961 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014 KCRG: 83/2014

Sat, February 21st: KJAX: 86/2019 KGNV: 89/2019 KCRG: 84/2019

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 72 50 76 56 / 0 0 10 10 SSI 64 52 71 56 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 73 52 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 70 53 77 56 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 78 53 80 56 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 78 54 80 56 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.