textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Main Hazards: Wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall.

- Hot and Humid Conditions Continue into Next Week. Heat Advisory headlines possible.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights Tonight:

- Isolated evening thunderstorms

Near term models keep the area of showers and thunderstorms together for a few more hours as it moves east across the area. This activity will end later this evening, with a dry overnight expected. Lows in the lower to mid 70s will be common Tonight.

SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Slightly lower rainfall coverage Monday through Tuesday - Heat Advisory conditions possible

Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain nearly stationary over the eastern Gulf, central FL and into the western Atlantic. This will maintain and west and southwest low level flow for the area. A weak cool front will slide southeast on Tuesday into the Carolinas and northern GA while a weak prefrontal troughing will exist from southwest to northeast over the region.

Overall, fairly high PWATs expected on Monday and Tuesday at about 1.7 to 2 inches, but the low level moisture content will diminish both Monday and Tuesday. So while deep moisture is present, we will likely see a lower coverage of showers and storms both days owing to the diminished moisture in the lower levels, probably in the scattered range of about 30-50 percent. Highest chances will generally be along and north of I-10 and along the east coast, and in both areas this is largely due to the west and east coast sea breeze boundaries/interactions. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will be in the lower to mid 90s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 90s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 70s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coastline. Heat index values are expected to rise to be just over 105 with a chance for Heat Advisory conditions.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat Advisory conditions possible through the end of the week - Return to at least scattered afternoon storms mid to late week

Broad mid to upper level troughing is across the area Wednesday through Friday and will begin to lift out by Saturday. Surface ridge of high pressure will remain over central and south FL, so prevailing flow is southwest and west. The tail end of a weak front will move into eastern GA on Wednesday, but it weakens and become diffuse by Thursday.

Rain chances will exist all these days, but with varying coverage. Wednesday, with the front in the area and sea breezes looks to be somewhat low coverage in the scattered range mainly in northeast FL, and then Thursday looks to increase in coverage as moisture surges up again with scattered to numerous coverage, and then on low- end scattered range about 20-30 percent Friday through Sunday.

Daily high temperatures are expected to consistently rise to above average levels with max temps in the lower to mid 90s. Heat Advisory conditions are possible through the end of the week and into the weekend as heat index values rise to levels of over 100-105 in many areas.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

A few showers will be possible this evening, which could cause brief restrictions, otherwise prevailing VFR conditions are forecast for the overnight. Convection will intitiate once again Monday afternoon, with chances for restrictions.

MARINE

A frontal boundary will shift north of the waters Today. Showers and storms will push over the waters this afternoon and into the evening hours Tonight. Weak high pressure ridge will slowly build in over the area waters on Monday and into Tuesday, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms returning by midweek as another front moves in from the north. Stronger offshore winds with exercise caution level winds looks possible for offshore waters Monday into Tuesday.

Rip Currents:

Rip current risk is expected to remain on the low side with the predominant offshore flow and surf/breakers 1-2 ft early this week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Values On Monday And Tuesday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon, causing locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds at times. Lower chances of showers and thunderstorms anticipated for Monday, and especially on Tuesday, as some drier . air moves in. With transport wind speeds and mixing heights higher on Monday and Tuesday, areas of higher daytime dispersion values are expected for portions of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas that receive heavier rainfall may also experience patchy late-night and early-morning fog.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 72 91 75 92 / 30 30 10 40 SSI 76 93 79 95 / 30 40 10 40 JAX 74 95 76 97 / 30 30 20 20 SGJ 75 94 77 97 / 30 40 20 20 GNV 73 94 75 96 / 20 20 10 10 OCF 74 94 76 95 / 20 10 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.