textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning Fog through the End of the Week. Patchy Sea Fog Possible Friday Afternoon & Evening

- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Be very cautious with outdoor flames check for local burning bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Weak high pressure will be over the area Tonight, with a frontal zone remainging to the north. Moisture is expected to advect off the Gulf Tonight, leading to fog potential. The greatest chance for any dense fog will be inland. Temperatures will trend above normal Tonight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Not a whole lot of change in the pattern will be expected through the short term period as the region will be located within the southwest periphery of a surface ridge as well as above normal heights in the mid/upper levels. Very light south to southwesterly wind will be almost variable at times for both Thursday and Friday, and combined with the warmer temps than normal over land will result in a modest sea breeze to develop each day as well. Thursday will be mostly sunny with only a few or scattered diurnal clouds thanks to the drier air still in place. A general upward trend in mid and high clouds will be expected for Friday, which will limit high temps just a little bit. Highs Thursday will be generally in the low to mid 80s, except for some upper 70s near the immediate coast. Similar but a touch cooler Friday with more cloud cover with mid 80s likely more scarce over the interior. Light southwest flow at the low levels will persist jsut enough moisture for fog development to be likely both Friday and Saturday Morning, especially over southern areas and the I-75/Suwannee River Valley area thanks to the flow off the Gulf.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Weak surface ridging continues on Saturday before a weakening cold front approaches on Saturday Night and moves across the region through Sunday. Given both the rather lackluster dynamics aloft as well as the current drought situation, looks as though there will be little to any rainfall/convcetive potential with this front at all. High pressure will build back in from the north Monday behind the front before the assocaited high moves off the Carolinas into the Atlantic Monday and into Tuesday. Our next front approaches around Tuesday or Tuesday Night which looks to bring our next "higher" chances for rainfall - albeit the frontal system and therefore same chances for rain does not look significant at this time. Temperatures above normal are expected to continue overall through the long term.

AVIATION /18Z/

Prevailing VFR conditions through around midnight. Fog development is expected tonight. The greatest chances for restrictions in this fog will be inland. This fog will lift after sunrise Thursday, giving way to prevailing VFR conditions from mid morning through the afternoon.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will prevail across the region through Saturday, with a frontal zone to the north. A cold front will sink south across area Saturday night into Sunday. A ridge of high pressure will then prevail again early next week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Thursday NE FL Low Today, Moderate Thursday

..AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THURSDAY & FRIDAY

Dry, warm weather and increasing humidity trends continue amid the ongoing drought through the weekend, though no significant fire weather "watch outs" are expected over the next few days. Our main concern will be morning fog, which could be locally dense, and poor afternoon dispersions due to minimal surface and transport winds. Breezy southwesterly winds will start to increase with gusts up to 15 mph on Friday as a weak cold front slowly approaches from the northwest. That front will pass through Saturday night and Sunday with minimal showers if any at all.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Gulf moisture will be more of a factor on Thursday and Friday, with fog expected to be found mostly into the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.

..CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures For The Rest of The Week:

Wednesday, November 19: KJAX: 84/1958 KAMG: 82/1942 KCRG: 82/1984

Thursday, November 20: KJAX: 86/1988 KGNV: 88/1906 KAMG: 83/1942

Friday, November 21: KJAX: 84/1991 KGNV: 86/1973 KAMG: 83/2011 KCRG: 82/2004

Saturday, November 22: KJAX: 84/1973 KGNV: 86/1906 KAMG: 83/2011 KCRG: 81/1997