textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warning Early Saturday Morning for Inland Southeast GA &

- High Risk for Rip Currents at NE Florida Beaches Today

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday

UPDATE

High cirrus is streaming east northeast across the area this morning with east northeasterly winds already moderating local temperatures into the mid/upper 50s to around 60 at the immediate coast and elevating subfreezing lows after midnight into the mid 30s over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley. Therefore the freeze warning was allowed to expire at 8AM.

Today, high pressure will shift east from the central appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coast. Breezy east northeasterly winds 15-20 mph will gust to 30 mph at times as a tightened local pressure gradient between the high to the north northeast and weak inverted troughing over the coastal waters heightens onshore flow today. Atlantic stratocumulus clouds developing over the coastal waters will become more numerous and move onshore leading to mostly cloudy skies along the coast with a few sprinkles or a very brief shower possible. With low level flow aloft turning more southeasterly, temperatures along with moisture levels will increase, rebounding into the upper 60s to the lower 70s across NE FL and generally low/mid 60s over SE GA.

Tonight, added low level moisture will give some shallow, patchy fog potential inland/west of I-95 as stratocumulus clouds thin out in coverage leading to partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows will be not nearly as cold over SE GA with low/mid 40s and warmer across NE FL due to the easterly wind fetch with low 50s south of I-10 into north central FL and along the SE GA coast and upper 40s along I-10 west of Jacksonville. The warmest locations will be along the first coast only lowering to the upper 50s to low 60s.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Warmer today and continued breezy with more passing clouds. After an inland morning freeze and frost, temperatures will warm into the 60s across most locations to lower 70s toward our north-central FL zones roughly from Gainesville toward Palatka southward under breezy easterly winds. Dry conditions continue, however, low level clouds will increase from the Atlantic coast through the day as a coastal trough forms offshore. A few light, spotty coastal sprinkles will be possible tonight as the trough pivots northward up the coast, but measurable precipitation is not expected.

With the influx of shallow level moisture today under east winds, introduced patchy fog after midnight tonight for locations near the I-95 corridor in southeast GA to the St. Johns River basin of northeast Florida. Lows will range from the low/mid 40s tonight across inland southeast GA to the 50s south of I-10 toward the Atlantic coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

High pressure will move away to the northeast Sunday morning, with a cold front moving southeast across SE GA Sunday afternoon. This front will then move across NE FL Sunday night. The front will stall to the south Monday, then lift north across region Monday night as a warm front, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf.

Dry weather is expected as the frontal boundary moves through Sunday into Sunday night, but chances will increase Monday into Monday night, as it lifts back through as a warm front with increasing moisture.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The low will track northeast of the region Tuesday, with the associated cold front moving southeast across area. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage. A few strong storms will be possible.

High pressure will build to the northwest Tuesday night, then to the north Wednesday. The high will move away to the northeast Thursday, as another low moves northeast out of the Gulf Thursday night into Friday. The front associated with this low may stall over area Friday night into Saturday, bringing a prolonged period of rainfall beginning Friday.

Above normal temperatures can be expected Tuesday, with readings then trending below through the rest of this period.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

The 12Z TAF period will feature VFR conditions. Winds from the east northeast will pick up later this morning and turn breezy 10-15 knots with higher gusts along the coast to 20-25 knots as strong high pressure to the north builds more to the north northeast today. Weak inverted troughing will generate Atlantic stratocumulus clouds over the waters and move them onshore after 20Z with cloud heights ranging 4.0-6.0 kft. Winds will subside some by 22Z-00Z to 6-10 knots inland and around 10 knots at the coast, then 3-5 knots inland after 05Z and remain 6-10 knots along the coast overnight, becoming easterly at SGJ. Some patchy fog may form after 06Z tonight away from the coast, but probabilities too low to include at this time.

MARINE

High pressure will build north northeast of the waters today as a coastal trough develops over the local waters. The coastal trough will break down Sunday into Monday as a weakening front approaches from the north then begins to stall just north of the local waters into Monday night. This front will morph into a lifting warm front ahead of a stronger frontal system as it approaches late Monday into Tuesday. Southerly winds increase Tuesday near Small Craft levels with a chance of thunderstorms. The front is expected to push south of the local waters late Tuesday, then high pressure builds northwest of the region mid-week as winds subside below Advisory levels.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday NE FL Moderate Sunday

FIRE WEATHER

LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON THE SE GA COAST SUNDAY...

Moisture will recover Saturday as high pressure shifts more to the northeast near the Mid Atlantic coast with breezy northeast winds turning easterly and breezy by afternoon 10-15 with gusts to 25-30 mph, but with min RH levels above critical levels. Increasing surface and transport winds will create areas of high daytime dispersions. Sunday, light easterly winds will turn south to southwesterly further inland as a cold front approaches from the west. Weaker surface and transport winds will produce fair dispersions. Chances for showers will increase Monday night as a cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger storm system will bring the potential for isolated strong T'storms with a wetting rainfall across most of the area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS... Significant fog is not expected over the next few nights.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 43 72 48 66 / 0 10 10 20 SSI 53 71 56 67 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 51 77 56 71 / 10 10 10 20 SGJ 58 76 61 74 / 10 10 10 20 GNV 52 79 57 76 / 0 10 10 20 OCF 53 79 58 78 / 0 10 10 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.