textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Danger this Afternoon for Portions of North Central & Inland NE Florida.

- Severe to Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Region-Wide

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Thursday

- Beneficial Rainfall & Isolated Thunderstorms Thursday Afternoon through Saturday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Potential for light isolated showers touching upon inland southeast Georgia during the overnight hours and then building to become more widespread into Thursday morning as high pressure over the Florida peninsula moves off to the southeast and drier air is replaced by a more moist southwesterly flow extending in from out of the gulf, north of riding extending in from out of the east and south of a frontal boundary pressing down from out of the north. Today will start off a warming trend for the rest of the week with high temperatures this afternoon will rise into the lower 70s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 40s and lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period: - Beneficial rain and isolated thunderstorms Friday Afternoon through Saturday

Deep southwest flow continues across the area on Thursday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of an approaching front. Thursday is expected to remain dry for most of the region with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies, though some isolated to scattered shower activity is expected to enter interior GA and perhaps part of the upper Suwannee River Valley Thursday Afternoon and Evening and continuing into Thursday Night. No thunderstorm activity is expected for Thursday and Thursday Night, however. Thursday will be mild in the southwest flow, though not quite as high as the record breaking warmth from last week. Temps in the mid to upper 70s will be common, with some readings near or just over 80 possible south and east and/or where the most breaks in cloud cover occurs. Chances for showers slowly nudge south and east Thursday Night, though still expecting chances mainly for southeast GA and near the I-10 corridor with mild lows in the 50s to near 60.

Friday, the front will continue to slowly progress southeastward, bringing with it beneficial rainfall as well as chances for thunderstorms across the region. Once again, highest PoPs are expected to be from about I-10 northward during the day on Friday due to the slow moving nature of the boundary. The big positive with this will be more periods of beneficial rainfall with the slower moving boundary, especially across interior GA. The timing for more beneficial rainfall further south will be closer to Friday Night and into Saturday Morning as the front slows down and nearly stalls over northeast FL. There will be a fairly modest temperature gradient on Friday depending on the progression of the front and strength of the warm sector out ahead of it. Current forecast is widespread upper 70s to the low 80s generally south of I-10, and low to mid 70s north. Similarly, min temps will be milder over most of northeast FL Thursday Night with widespread upper 50s to near 60. Over southeast GA, low to mid 50s will be expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights During the Long Term Period: - Beneficial Showers and Possibly a Few Storms Continue into Saturday

The above mentioned front will slowly continue south and eastward throughout the rest of Saturday after nearly stalling over this same area Friday Night and Saturday Morning. Guidance has overall trended a bit slower with the frontal passage, and therefore chances for a few showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday evening, mainly over northeast FL. The front clears the area Saturday Night, though will not bring particularly strong cold air advection with it, as weakening high pressure moves almost directly over the area Sunday before shifting east & offshore for the start of next week, persisting more of an onshore flow as opposed to a northwest flow. Another drier frontal boundary looks to move through the region sometime around Tuesday, inducing more of a spring like onshore local nor'easter type of flow with it as well as chances for showers into mid week, especially over eastern areas. Temperatures lean near to above climo for most of the long term.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will be in place through the forecast period. Southwesterly winds of about 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots this afternoon will diminish to about 5-10 knot by around 00z-02z. south-southwesterly winds will build to about 10-15 knots before the end of the forecast period by around 14z-16z.

MARINE

High pressure centered over the Florida peninsula will shift offshore of the southeast FL coast by early Wednesday evening. Breezy southwesterly winds will prevail through Thursday across our local waters, especially offshore, where Caution level speeds are forecast. A slow moving frontal boundary will then enter the southeastern states on Thursday night, with a few showers possible after midnight. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will then increase in coverage from Friday through Saturday night. High pressure building over the Carolinas in the wake of this frontal boundary will create an onshore wind flow this weekend. Easterly winds may strengthen early next week as a stronger high pressure center builds over New England and wedges down the southeastern seaboard, with a developing coastal trough over our local waters developing rounds of scattered showers.

Rip Currents: A long period east-northeasterly ocean swell will deliver a higher end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches today. This swell will begin to fade on Thursday, resulting in a lower end moderate risk at area beaches. A low rip current risk appears to be likely on Friday and Saturday due to light winds and lower swell periods, with a moderate risk returning by Sunday due to gradually strengthening onshore winds that will continue into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Today And Thursday - Patchy High Nighttime Dispersion Wednesday Night Over Inland SE GA

Breezy southwest winds today will increase moisture across much of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, however lower minRH values around 30 to 35% will persist during peak mixing through this evening over parts of northeast FL, generally south and east of the line from Gainesville to Jacksonville. The breezy low level/transport winds will result in areas of high dispersions as well today. A very similar setup is expected again on Thursday will breezy southwesterly winds and a further increase in low level moisture. An approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and storms beginning Thursday, but especially Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning. Winds will quickly shift more northeasterly Saturday behind the front. Rainfall totals are forecast to be about 0.75-1.25" Thursday through Saturday night.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog developments are not expected, though patchy fog will be possible over inland GA and the Suwannee Valley Friday Morning. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for Thursday night through Saturday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 50 74 58 71 / 10 40 60 90 SSI 52 73 58 72 / 0 10 40 80 JAX 47 79 56 80 / 0 0 20 70 SGJ 47 78 56 80 / 0 0 10 40 GNV 44 78 55 81 / 0 0 10 50 OCF 42 79 55 82 / 0 0 10 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.