textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches Today. High Risk Expected on Saturday as Onshore Winds Briefly Strengthen

- Locally Dense Fog Near I-95 Tonight in Northeast Florida

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Night

- Small Craft Advisories Saturday through Monday Night

- Widespread Inland Freezes likely Monday Night through Wednesday Night

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

This afternoon...Stalled frontal boundary remains in place just to the NW of inland SE GA with a few light showers along it, that are expected to remain to the NW of the Ocmulgee/Altamaha River Basins, but will monitor for a few sprinkles/isolated showers that may push into areas to the NW of Alma, GA (Coffee/Jeff Davis/Appling area). Otherwise mild temps still on track across the rest of SE GA and all of NE FL where Max temps will push into the 70s area-wide, along with a few lower 80s possible across inland NE FL under partly to mostly sunny skies and generally light and variable winds, except for a late day East Coast sea breeze that will increase NE winds to around 10 mph late in the afternoon.

Tonight...Arctic High pressure building into the SE US states north of the local area, will push the old frontal boundary south through SE GA and NE FL through the overnight hours. This will shift the local winds to Northeast with gusty NE winds at 15G25 mph developing along the SE GA coast. Ahead of this boundary the higher dew points close to 60 degrees over the cooler near shore Atlantic water temps in the 50s are still expected to develop some sea fog along the SE GA/NE FL coastal areas after sunset this evening, which will likely advect inland and cover most of NE FL during the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence in at least some patchy sea fog and lower stratus developing along the Atlantic coastal areas which will advect inland through the night, but lower confidence in how dense the fog will become, but the main impact areas will be along the NE FL coastline this evening, pushing into the St. Johns River Basin from JAX southward by midnight, then pushing into the rest of inland NE FL during the overnight hours. Dense fog advisories may be required but confidence is not high enough to warrant the issuance with the afternoon forecast package. Otherwise low temps not as cool as last night with lows in the mid/upper 40s across SE GA and lower to middle 50s across NE FL.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across the forecast area in association by Sunday evening ahead of an advancing cold front pressing in from out of the northwest, pushing the warm sector associated with the already established warm front off to the northeast, with a marginal risk for some storms associated with the event to become severe. Daily high temperatures will peak Sunday with max temps rising into the lower to mid 70s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 70s for northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the 30s and 40s southeast Georgia and in the upper 40s and lower 50s for northeast Florida by the end of the weekend as cold air following the frontal passage begins to settle across the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Lingering precipitation associated with the frontal passage will disperse by Monday morning as high pressure conditions settle in and dominate the weather pattern. Freezing conditions are anticipated to persist through the week as a dry secondary is anticipated to press in from the north later in the week. Cold temperatures will be in place through next week as temps remain well below average through the period with overnight min temps dropping well below freezing for inland areas.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

VFR conds will continue at regional terminals this afternoon with mainly light NE winds at 5-10 knots or less. Weak frontal boundary drifting southward through the region along with light NE winds at 5 knots or less after sunset and increasing low level moisture will set the stage for high chances of LIFR CIGS and IFR to LIFR VSBYS at all TAF sites tonight. The development of sea fog will occur first at SSI/SGJ in the 00-03Z time frame, then push inland into the JAX metro TAF sites by the 03-06Z time frame then advect inland into GNV by the 06-09Z time frame. High confidence in lower CIGS, but but only low/moderate confidence in how low VSBYS will fall. These conds will slowly start to improve Saturday morning in the 12-15Z time frame with VSBYS improving first as NE wind surge pushes down the Atlantic Coast and then inland, but overall lower CIGS in the IFR to MVFR range will linger through the end of the upcoming TAF period.

MARINE

Arctic high pressure will build northwest of the area this afternoon and push a frontal boundary southward through the local waters tonight. Dense sea fog development will be possible across the Northeast Florida nearshore waters this evening. Northeast winds briefly surge in the wake of this frontal passage on Saturday with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Meanwhile, a winter storm developing over the deep South on Saturday and Saturday night will shift northeast, lifting a warm front northward across our local waters on Saturday night. Winds will shift to south and then southwest on Sunday ahead of another cold front, which could be accompanied by a few thunderstorms on Sunday night. Arctic high pressure will then build into the southeast states in the wake of this cold frontal passage early next week, continuing Small Craft Advisory conditions into early next week as breezy northwest winds shift to north while strengthening further on Monday night.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate risk of rip expected through the weekend, with potential for brief High Risk at times as the Northeast winds surge along the SE GA/NE FL coast on Saturday. Surf/breakers generally in the 2-4 ft range, although briefly in the 3-5 ft range following the surge of Northeast winds this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Daytime Dispersion Values Today

Low dispersion conditions are expected today as weak high-pressure ridging remains in place. Light surface and transport winds will persist, resulting in poor to fair dispersions despite elevated mixing heights. A frontal boundary will move south through the area tonight, then lift back north as a warm front Saturday night. Showers will move into southeast Georgia on Saturday and spread into northeast Florida on Sunday. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible Sunday into Sunday night, particularly across inland Georgia. Breezy southwesterly winds ahead of the cold front on Sunday will likely result in areas of high dispersion, followed by another period of high dispersion on Monday with a breezy northwest flow behind the front. A much colder and drier airmass will settle into the region early next week and persist through midweek.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog may develop across north- central Florida Saturday morning. Frost and freeze potential returns early next week.

CLIMATE

Near Record Highs Sunday, January 25...

Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred.

Record High Temperatures:

January 25: KJAX: 83/2023 KGNV: 85/1950 KCRG: 81/2024

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 47 57 45 72 / 10 10 20 40 SSI 50 58 50 72 / 10 20 30 10 JAX 52 63 52 80 / 10 20 10 10 SGJ 55 67 57 80 / 10 20 10 0 GNV 53 71 56 83 / 10 10 0 10 OCF 54 74 58 83 / 10 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to midnight EST Saturday night for AMZ452. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ472. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ474.