textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Fog Late Tonight into Tuesday Morning. Inland along/west of I-75 & Sea fog along the Southeast GA coast. Localized Superfog Risk Near Wildfires

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Tuesday

- Cold Front Expected Late in the Weekend. Isolated Thunderstorms & Windy Conditions Possible

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Conditions are clear early this morning as a weak shortwave exits to the southeast. High pressure ridge axis extends over the area from the northeast. Some pockets of patchy fog have been observed early this morning, but due to a dry airmass lingering the fog will be short lived, however areas of fog will develop and persist over the next few hours west of I-75 as some increase in low level moisture will feed in from the Gulf where lows dip into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees with temps elsewhere lowering to the low 40s by sunrise. Some locally dense fog and superfog would be more likely in these areas near wildfire activity. Brunswick will see patchy to areas of sea fog drift onshore through the predawn hours.

Today, patchy/areas of fog will lift by 8AM. High pressure will shift more to the east with the ridge axis shifting south of the area. This will allow for southwest winds 5-10 mph to prevail under sunny skies with high cirrus arriving late this afternoon well downstream of a cold front moving into the Ozarks and TN river valley. Highs will warm well above average away from the coast into the upper 70s over NE FL and the mid/upper 70s over SE GA with highs near 70 degrees along the coast from Fernandina Beach to Brunswick and low 70s south to the Flagler coast.

Tonight, mid and high level clouds increase as the cold front approaches the area from the northwest with isolated to scattered showers spreading eastward across southern GA into areas north of US82. The clouds, showers, and winds elevating to 8-12 mph over these SE GA locations will keep lows a bit warmer in the mid 50s while light winds and more clearing from the high pressure ridge over the FL peninsula will allow lows to fall to the mid to upper 40s south of I-10 over NE FL with low 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

On Wednesday, a parade of upper shortwaves will round the ridge and pass across the region as a cold front sinks southward into the SE US. Rounds of showers will move through ahead of and along the front mainly for areas north of I-10. Lingering dry air will generally keep rainfall amounts light. Warm WSW flow will maintain above seasonable temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the 70s. The cold front weakens as it moves south across the area Wednesday night and into central FL on Thursday. Brief coastal trough develops in the wake of the front on Thursday developing NE flow. This will create a temperature gradient with highs in the low 60s along the SE GA coast to the upper 70s in north-central FL. The diffused frontal boundary then lifts back northward up the FL peninsula Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A warm front stalls across the area on Friday bringing a couple of light showers along the boundary mainly across SE GA. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the SW US deepens and becomes a closed low as it treks eastward across the southern Plains. Its associated surface low will lift the warm front north our area Saturday into Sunday. Showers increase Saturday night and become more widespread on Sunday ahead of the approaching cold front. Continued SSW flow will usher in warm, moist air from the Gulf to the area maintaining above seasonable temperatures and dewpoints rising into the 60s by Sunday. Have added mention of isolated thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon but it is too soon to determine the potential for strong/severe thunderstorm potential due to continued model uncertainty with the evolution of this system. Showers taper off Monday as the cold front exits the region.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

The 12Z TAF period will begin with MVFR to IFR fog at VQQ until 14Z, but otherwise prevailing VFR ceilings and visibility through the rest of the period. high pressure will shift to the east today and produce light southwest winds increasing to 6-8 knots into this afternoon with an Atlantic seabreeze expected to turn winds south to southeasterly 8-10 knots at SSI and SGJ. High clouds slowly increase late this afternoon with southwest winds resuming at all sites around 5 knots after 00Z, then high level overcast skies arrive after 06Z.

MARINE

High pressure to the northeast this morning will shift more east of the waters today with a long period easterly swell keeping elevated seas through this evening. The high will shift southeast of the region Wednesday as a weakening front approaches with increasing westerly winds and isolated to scattered showers. The front will stall and linger over south Florida Thursday with northeast winds over local waters. The front will morph into a lifting warm front late Friday into Saturday. Rain chances increase this weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west late Saturday into Sunday with winds increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate rip current risk today as easterly swells with periods of up to 11-13 seconds continue to produce surf/breakers into the 3-4 ft range at local beaches. Easterly swells will continue a moderate risk of rip currents Wednesday despite offshore flow from the west southwest due to surf/breakers of 3-4 ft.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Today And Wednesday

Dry weather conditions continue today with critically low min RHs in the 20s across inland northeast Florida. West-southwesterly increases today into Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will result in good dispersions with patchy high dispersions this afternoon and on Wednesday. Moisture increases with the influx of moisture from the Gulf increasing RHs into 50s. Isolated showers will move through mainly southeast Georgia Wednesday into Wednesday night. Accumulations will be light. The cold front passes through the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Brief high pressure builds in for Thursday resulting in poor to fair dispersions.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog will be possible across inland NE FL and SE GA this morning, with denser fog occurring in proximity with wildfire smoke.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 74 53 76 46 / 0 20 40 10 SSI 70 52 71 50 / 0 10 30 30 JAX 78 50 76 51 / 0 10 20 10 SGJ 75 51 74 54 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 78 47 76 52 / 0 0 10 10 OCF 77 46 75 53 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.