textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Wet Pattern Through Tuesday with daily thunderstorms. Main T-storm concerns today: strong gusts 40-50 mph, Small Hail, Localized flooding, and Frequent Lightning mainly for northeast FL.

- Numerous showers and Thunderstorms Tuesday with Isolated Strong/Severe Storms Possible during the afternoon and evening.

- Small Craft Advisory expected Tuesday evening through Thursday morning.

- High Rip Current risk begins late Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Not as stormy today but a couple of stronger storms possible.

A deep northwest flow is expected this period with at least a couple of weak disturbance moving through during the day. The northwest flow will help bring drier air in as a weak cool front boundary, initially near the I-10 corridor, boundary moves south into the northeast and north central FL area this afternoon. PWATS will drop down to at least 1.5 inches across southeast GA and to 1.5 to 2 inches in northeast FL. The drier air will help limit convection today compared to the past few days. The exception will be over the southern most zone where chances will be at least 30-50 percent, mainly south of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine. Most of the convection will dissipate in the evening.

By tonight, a shortwave trough will swing through the mean 500 mb trough across the TN valley and then into AL and GA by early Tuesday morning. This should induce at least some sfc troughing over central and potentially southeast GA by early Tuesday morning. Therefore, we could see convection redevelop over southeast GA after midnight.

Max temps will generally be a bit warmer today owing to less precip chances and less cloud cover. Max temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s expected. Lows mild again tonight generally in the lower 70s, some mid 70s possible nearer the coast. Patchy fog and low clouds possible again early this morning and Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, with strong to possibly severe storms possible

A slow moving frontal zone will lay out west to east across the area Tuesday, focused near the GA/FL line in the afternoon. The combination of surface instability and frontal convergence will result in above average chances for convection Tuesday afternoon and evening.

As high pressure builds to the north, the front will slide south into central FL Tuesday night. Due to the position of the front, a few showers and storms will be possible over NE FL Wednesday, while SE GA dries out.

The high will continue to build Wednesday night, with dry weather across the forecast area.

Temperatures will go from above average readings Tuesday, to below for Wednesday. Wednesday will be noticeably cooler, as lower dewpoints move in from the north. This cooler and drier airmass will be most noticeable over SE GA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- This will be a mainly dry period

High pressure will become centered more toward the northeast Thursday, then continue to move away to the east northeast through Sunday.

While precipitation chances can not be ruled out, the potential will be too low to mention for much of this period.

Temperatures will trend below average for the first part of this period, then closer to average for the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Morning MVFR to IFR ceiling will begin to clear towards mid-morning, as gusty northwesterly winds fill in. A line of showers will impact GNV this morning, before coverage increases this afternoon. PROB30s are in place at all the northeast Florida TAF sites this afternoon, confidence in restrictions at SSI due to precipitation is too low at this time. Gusty winds will calm around sunset, with patchy fog possible in the morning for the inland sites.

MARINE

A weak cold front will move south of the waters today, and then dissipate. A stronger cold front will move into the area waters on Tuesday, followed by strengthening northeast winds in the wake of this frontal passage, creating Small Craft Advisory conditions from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning throughout our local waters. Breezy onshore winds and elevated seas are expected through Thursday night as high pressure gradually weakens over the southeastern states. Otherwise, additional rounds of thunderstorms are forecast today through Tuesday evening with heavy rainfall and gusty winds expected at times.

Rip Currents: Generally low to low end moderate risk for today. Looking at increased risk to moderate and high from Tuesday and into Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy To Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions This Week

A frontal zone will keep area weather unsettled through Tuesday. The front will move to the south Tuesday night, with lower chances for precipitation Wednesday. High pressure ridging will provide for largely dry weather for Thursday through the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible this morning. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday across the area, then mainly for NE FL Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 87 70 86 59 / 10 10 90 50 SSI 87 75 85 70 / 30 20 90 80 JAX 89 72 89 67 / 30 10 90 90 SGJ 90 74 90 70 / 50 10 80 100 GNV 90 72 92 67 / 50 20 70 90 OCF 90 74 90 70 / 50 20 60 90

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.