textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Tonight Into Monday Morning. Visibility around 1/4 mile or less in some locations. Best Chances along the I-75 Corridor

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Monday

- Marine and Coastal Hazards Early This Week. Small Craft Advisories Monday Night and Tuesday

- Colder Weather Returns This Week. Inland Freeze Likely on Mon Night and Tue Night. Low Wind Chill Values Possible. Additional Inland Light Freezes with Widespread Frost Potential Wed Night - Fri Night

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure centered over the FL peninsula today gradually weakens and shifts southward tonight as a cold front pushes through the SE US. Deep SW flow has ushered in low level moisture and warmth across the region. Lingering stratus from this morning will gradually deteriorate through the afternoon giving way to partly sunny skies. Above seasonable temperatures continue with highs in the low-mid 70s along the coast to upper 70s to potentially 80 inland. The moist low level SW flow off the NE Gulf will set the stage for another round of dense fog by the late evening hours across inland NE FL and spreading across the rest of NE FL and most of SE GA during the overnight hours. Dense Fog Advisories will likely be needed again mainly for inland NE FL. Low temps remain above normal in the mid/upper 50s inland and near 60 along the Atlantic Coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Another foggy start to the day Monday. The lowest chance for this fog will over interior portion of SE GA, where winds will be elevated ahead of approaching front.

A strong cold front will move southeast across area Monday, mainly in the afternoon hours. Ahead of the front, a warm southwest flow will allow temperatures to rise well above normal. The upper low and best lift is well to north, so a dissipating line of showers is expected with this passage locally. High pressure will build to the northwest following the frontal passage Monday afternoon and Monday night. Temperatures will fall sharply Monday night, with a 30 to 40 degree diurnal range from afternoon highs. Expecting too much wind for frost potential, but a light freeze will be possible over inland SE GA.

A secondary boundary will move south across region Tuesday. While this boundary will pass through dry, it will provide added cloud coverage reinforce the cold air mass. Tuesday will be an unseasonably cool day with highs in the 50s. High pressure ridge will extend across area from center to the west Tuesday night. Subsidence under the ridge will yield clear skies, with winds becoming light. Temperatures will be well below average with lows generally in the mid to upper 20s. Lows for coastal communities and along the St Johns River will be in the lower to mid 30s. With these temperatures, and lighter winds, frost will be Widespread Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The high will center over the Gulf Wednesday into Thursday. A weak cold front will glance by to the north east Wednesday night. This will be a dry passage, but bring a few more clouds. Temperatures will remain below average Wednesday into Wednesday night, with near normal readings Thursday. A widespread inland Frost is expected Wednesday night, with a light inland Freeze.

The high will move overhead Thursday night then to the southeast Friday. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf Friday afternoon, then slowly cross the area Friday night through the weekend, with precipitation chances expected. Temperatures will again be below seasonal averages Thursday night, then trend toward above.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Stratocumulus deck has begun to lift and gradually deteriorate this afternoon. All TAF sites should reach VFR by 20Z. Generally light SW winds continue with the potential for a wind shift to southerly for the coastal TAF sites as a weak sea breeze attempts to shift inland. Another round of dense fog and potential LIFR conds are expected to spread across the TAF sites tonight mainly beginning between 03-07Z.

MARINE

High pressure will remain centered over the Florida peninsula today. High pressure will then weaken and slide southward later tonight ahead of a strong cold front. West-southwest winds increase to Caution levels on Monday ahead of the approaching cold front. Winds shift to northwest and strengthen to Small Craft Advisory levels Monday night into Tuesday in the wake of the frontal passage. West northwest winds continue for much of next week as high pressure builds eastward along the northern Gulf coast.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Monday NE FL Moderate Monday

FIRE WEATHER

AREAS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS MONDAY AND THURSDAY... MINRH VALUES IN THE 20S INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

High pressure will move off to the southeast through Tonight. A cold front will move southeast across area Monday. A few showers will accompany this frontal passage. A much cooler and drier airmass will advect in behind this front. High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature from Monday night through Thursday night. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf and affect the area over the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog is expected again Tonight, with potential for dense fog over NE FL. A freeze is expected over inland SE GA on Monday night. A more widespread freeze is expected Tuesday night with Frost.

CLIMATE

Ahead of a cold front on Monday 12/29 across northeast FL, record highs are possible with current records standing at:

December 29th: KJAX: 83/2015 KGNV: 82/2021 KCRG: 82/2021

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 57 70 31 51 / 0 40 0 0 SSI 57 72 37 54 / 0 20 0 0 JAX 56 78 35 55 / 0 20 0 0 SGJ 56 78 40 56 / 0 10 0 0 GNV 55 78 37 57 / 0 10 0 0 OCF 54 76 38 58 / 0 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.