textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local NorEaster Conditions Through Thursday. Gale Force Winds Across the Coastal Waters Through Tonight, Then Small Craft. Life Threatening Coastal Hazards through the End of the Week. Frequent, Strong Rip Currents and Rough Surf (up to 12 ft Wed/Thurs). Minor Beach Erosion Possible. Gusty Winds Along the NE FL Coast/St Johns River

- Red Flag Warning for Inland Southeast GA 2-8 PM Today

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Strong onshore winds; Coastal Wind Advisory

- Life-threatening Surf Zone Conditions

Region remains between strong high pressure to the north northeast, and an inverted trough to the south through Tonight. The resulting gradient between these two features will keep winds elevated. While gusts will relax after sunset due to lack of mixing, winds will remain fairly gusty near the immediate coast. With the northeast flow, the best chance for showers will be over NE FL Tonight, with a focus at the coast.

Lows will range from the lower 50s over interior SE GA, to the middle 60s along the NE FL coast.

SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Onshore Conditions Gradually Easing Each Day - High Risk for Rip Currents & Elevated Surf Persist at Beaches

Strong high pressure to the northeast near Nova Scotia will extend a surface ridge axis SW into the Mid Atlantic coast and VA/NC Piedmont with coastal troughing off the FL coast through Thursday night. Breezy onshore NE winds will resume, but less than today at 15-20 mph gusting to 30-35 at the coast and 10-15 mph gusting to 30 over inland NE FL with gusts decreasing to 25 mph over inland SE GA. Scattered coastal showers will move onshore across NE FL coast and St Johns river basin into north central FL with widely isolated showers along and west of highway 301. Isolated T'storms will develop in the afternoon as over the southern St Johns river basin with some diurnal heating from less cloud cover allows for enough surface instability under 500 J/kg to fuel a few storms, but mostly south of JAX where higher moisture levels reside to support updraft development without drying out.

Highs Thursday will be below normal in the upper 60s over coastal SE GA and the low 70s along the NE FL coast warming to near normal in the mid to upper 70s west of I-95 in NE FL and west of US-301 in SE GA. Lows Thursday night will be near normal in the lower 50s over interior SE GA where drier air resides and moderate to the low 60s along the immediate coast and upper 50s over interior NE FL.

Drier air arrives Friday as surface/low level ridging shifts south across the southern appalachians into the Carolinas. Surface high pressure moving closer to the area will relax the pressure gradient and this will lead to a dry and less breezy day with onshore NE winds 10-15 gusting to 25 mph along the coast and gusting to 20 mph inland with a only a few quick showers mainly offshore or very quick widely isolated shower moving onto the immediate coast at times, but measurable rain is not expected.

Highs Friday will moderate to near normal along the coast in the mid 70s with highs bumping above normal into the lower 80s. Lows Friday night will be near normal ranging from the low 50s interior SE GA to the low 60s again at the coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming Temperatures & Fair/Dry Conditions Throughout the Long Term Period

Weakening high Pressure over the southeast on Saturday will give way to stronger high pressure to the north moving quickly east into the Atlantic waters by Sunday night and then extending a ridge axis near the region through midweek next week. Subsidence from high pressure will keep dry conditions dry during the period. East to NE winds will become easterly Sunday, then SE Monday into Tuesday, and southerly Wednesday as the high pressure ridge axis moves south into the area. Daily afternoon seabreeze circulations and the onshore flow will favor a dominant Atlantic seabreeze moving well inland each day under mostly sunny skies.

Highs near normal along the coast and above normal inland Saturday will become above normal Sunday into next week with inland highs approaching near record levels in the low 90s by Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Showers and stratus will lead to periods of restrictions this evening, otherwise prevailing VFR conditions are forecast for most TAF sites this 00z TAF period. The restrictions may linger throughout the night into Thursday morning at KSGJ. Winds will remain gusty this evening. Away from the coast, the winds will relax some during the overnight. While winds are not expected to be as strong Thursday, it will still be a gusty day.

MARINE

Strong high pressure will be centered the north northeast through Thursday, with an inverted trough to the south. The high will weaken as it settles over the southeastern US on Friday. The high will move off to the northeast over the weekend, and more toward the east northeast next week.

Rip Currents and Surf:

A reinforced surge of onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through Thursday. As the strongest winds during this event arrive today breakers will rise to 10-13 feet. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible.

FIRE WEATHER

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF - Southeast Georgia

- NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. - AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 TODAY - PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - NEAR CRITICAL LOW MINRH VALUES RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK

Elevated winds today will continue this afternoon as strong high pressure builds into the region from the north with 15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph along the coast and St Johns river basin decreasing to 15-20 mph gusting to 30-35 mph over inland SE GA and far inland NE FL. The drier airmass will lower MinRH values to around 25-30 percent over locations from Alma, GA north and west and along with dry fuels and breezy conditions will continue a threat for dangerous wildfire conditions through sunset. Elevated transport winds will bring high dispersions across Southeast GA and onto the I-10 corridor of Northeast FL. Scattered showers moving onto the Southeast GA coast will weaken inland with scattered coastal showers continuing to move onshore across NE FL through this evening. Widely isolated T'storms possible over Northeast FL coast/St Johns river basin this afternoon. Increasing sunshine and decreased NE winds will create patchy high daytime dispersions Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles closer to the area and weakens. MinRH values are likely to remain below 35 percent across interior GA during this time frame.

Winds further decrease this weekend and become easterly with dry conditions this weekend into next week with MIN RH values nearing critical levels 25-30 percent.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected over night next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 51 75 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 60 68 61 73 / 10 10 10 10 JAX 60 74 59 78 / 40 30 10 10 SGJ 64 75 62 76 / 50 40 10 10 GNV 60 78 56 81 / 30 30 0 0 OCF 61 78 59 82 / 20 40 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ024-038-124- 125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-425-433-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ154-166. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>135. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470- 472-474. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.