textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Small Craft Advisory this morning

- High Risk of Rip Currents Today at All Area Beaches

- Beneficial Rainfall and Strong Storms Possible on Sunday and

- Frost Possible for Inland Southeast GA on Tuesday Night & Early

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High rip currents area beaches today, breezy near the coast this morning.

Cold front that passed the area is currently moving toward south Florida with high pressure currently residing over northern AL, northern GA and middle TN. By sunrise the high pressure area will slide over the coastal Carolinas.

Today will be dry and sunny across the entire forecast area. Behind the front, highs will be cooler. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s interior SE GA and for coastal areas and upper 70s to lower 80s for interior NE FL. Winds will shift to a more easterly direction by the afternoon as high pressure area move further offshore into the Atlantic, with winds tapering further to light easterly flow. The onshore flow will contribute to a High Risk of Rip Currents at all area beaches through most of the morning with some tapering of the rips by late afternoon.

Tonight, conditions remain mostly clear and dry. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s inland SE GA to the upper 50s/low 60s closer to the coast and south of Interstate 10 in NE FL. Patchy fog is expected to develop across much of inland Southeast Georgia and inland Northeast Florida late tonight with low status across the entire region.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Increasing Thunderstorm Chances Sunday

Showers will creep into north-central Florida on Saturday as south- southeast steering flow develops as a dissipating frontal boundary lifts northward from south-central Florida. Shower and storm coverage increases on Sunday as moisture expands north into southeast Georgia due to strengthening south-southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Above seasonable temperatures quickly return with highs in the 70s along the coast and low-mid 80s inland.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Strong Storms Possible Monday with Gusty Winds - Frost potential Tue Night-Wed Morning for inland SE Georgia

Numerous showers and storms move across the area on Monday ahead of a strong cold front. A few storms may become strong with ample deep layer shear and weak instability. Convection comes to an Monday evening. A much colder airmass then advects into the region behind the front Monday night dropping temperatures to below seasonable through midweek next week. Overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning are anticipated to drop into the mid 30s for inland SE GA and, combined with light winds, could bring a chance for frost.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected this 06z TAF period. Winds will be gusty through the early morning near the coast.

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain elevated into this morning before subsiding this afternoon as high pressure shifts to the northeast.

As the high pressure system shifts away, a warm front will gradually lift northward across the Florida Peninsula. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase from south to north late Saturday night through Sunday night as the front approaches and moves through the region.

A strong cold front will then move across the area on Monday. Southwest winds will increase ahead of the front before shifting to northwesterly in its wake. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to redevelop over the coastal waters Monday and persist through at least Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate to strong onshore flow early today will bring a high risk of rip currents to all area beaches through late morning or early afternoon. Winds do taper later this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Saturday Through Monday

Today into Saturday, high pressure will build to the north-northeast of the region as cooler, drier conditions move in. Min RHs will drop to 30-40 over portions of inland portions of Southeast Georgia this afternoon and Saturday. Inland temperatures warm back into the 80s on Saturday resulting in elevated mixing heights and potentially high dispersions. South-southwesterly winds increase on Sunday and Monday ahead of an approaching cold front resulting in more area- wide high dispersions. Numerous showers and storms develop on Sunday and continue into Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia tonight into Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 74 48 81 57 / 0 0 10 20 SSI 70 56 72 62 / 0 0 10 30 JAX 77 54 80 61 / 0 0 10 20 SGJ 75 60 77 63 / 0 0 20 40 GNV 81 56 83 61 / 0 0 30 20 OCF 83 59 83 62 / 0 10 40 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474.