textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches. High Risk Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches from Friday through Sunday.

- Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible on Thursday and Friday.

- Areas of Locally Dense Morning Fog Inland Thursday through Sunday.

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sun Afternoon through Tuesday.

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week.

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Wednesday Night:

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches Today.

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight for Inland Locations Along and North of I-10.

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide.

Early morning surface analysis depicts Atlantic ridging centered east of Bermuda that continues to extend its axis southwestward across the southeastern states. Meanwhile, a wavy frontal boundary extends from the southern Plains northeastward through the Ohio Valley and New England. Aloft...ridging extends from the northwestern Caribbean Sea northward across the FL Peninsula and the southeastern seaboard, while troughing prevails over the western U.S. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWAT values remain in the 1 - 1.25 inch range across our region. Mostly thin cirrus clouds were drifting eastward across our area, with light southeast to southerly winds continuing overnight across most of southeast GA. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z generally ranged from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

Patchy fog formation will be possible early this morning, mainly at inland locations. Any fog that manages to develop should dissipate before the mid-morning hours. Otherwise, a stagnant weather pattern will continue across our region today as deep- layered ridging positioned over the FL peninsula shifts eastward. Deeper moisture moving around the periphery of this ridge may trigger isolated late afternoon or early evening showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, mainly for locations west and northwest of Waycross in interior southeast GA. A few showers may also approach the northeast FL coast this afternoon as onshore winds surge slightly in the wake of the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary, but limited moisture and an overall subsident environment will likely not allow any marine showers that manage to develop to move onshore. Breezy onshore winds this afternoon will keep coastal highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Otherwise, filtered sunshine beneath some passing mid and high altitude cloud cover, a persistent dry air mass, and rising heights aloft will boost highs to the mid to upper 80s for locations west of the I-95 corridor this afternoon.

Ridging aloft will continue to flatten as it progresses east of our area tonight. Meanwhile, an inverted trough embedded in a deep low level easterly flow pattern will cross the Gulf Stream waters towards sunrise, with showers and embedded thunderstorms in the wake of this trough axis moving across our offshore waters late tonight. Subsidence will actually strengthen downstream of this inverted trough, with model soundings showing PWATs falling to around 0.75 inches after midnight. Fair skies and decoupling winds at inland locations should allow for at least patchy fog formation for areas along and north of the I-10 corridor during the predawn hours. Lows will generally fall to the mid and upper 50s at inland locations, ranging to the lower 60s at coastal locations, where an onshore breeze during the evening hours will only gradually diminish overnight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches. High Risk Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches on Friday.

- Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible on Thursday and Friday.

- Areas of Locally Dense Morning Fog Possible Inland.

Surface high pressure will remain centered near Bermuda through Friday maintaining local onshore flow. Weak coastal troughs develop and shift onshore each day bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning along the Atlantic coast in the late morning and spreading inland in the afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 70s along the coast to the mid-upper 80s further inland. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches this Weekend.

- Areas of Locally Dense Morning Fog Inland Possible this Weekend.

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sunday Afternoon through Tuesday.

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week.

High pressure retreats further into the Atlantic on Saturday as a cold front enters the SE US. Slightly drier air advects in from the south on Saturday limiting rain chances. Flow then shifts to south- southwesterly ahead of the front late Saturday into Sunday ushering in warm, moist air. Highs will rise to near record in the 80s area-wide and potentially to 90 in north- central FL. Pre-frontal showers and embedded thunderstorms increase from NW to SE Sunday afternoon into Monday. The cold front moves into the area Sunday night before stalling over NE FL on Monday. A stronger upper shortwave will traverse through the SE US and shift the front southward on Tuesday. Rounds of showers developing along the stalled boundary will hopefully bring some much needed rain to the area. Temperatures will be slightly below seasonable early next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail overnight through around sunrise at VQQ. Otherwise, a brief period of MVFR visibilities will be possible at the rest of the terminals during the predawn and/or early morning hours on Wednesday. However, confidence was only high enough to include GNV in MVFR impacts at this time. VFR conditions will then prevail at the regional terminals by 13Z. MVFR visibilities are then likely to develop towards 05Z Thursday at VQQ. Southerly surface winds will remain sustained around 5 knots or less at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals overnight through around 14Z Tuesday. Southeast to southerly surface winds will develop at the inland terminals after 13Z, with speeds increasing to around 5 knots by 14Z. Surface winds will then shift to east-southeasterly at the regional terminals by 17Z, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals and around 10 knots inland. Surface winds will then shift to southeasterly with gradually diminishing speeds after 00Z.

MARINE

High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states, maintaining persistent onshore winds through the weekend. Small Craft Advisory level seas are expected to redevelop over the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida on Thursday night as an inverted trough moves westward, increasing wind speeds slightly and generating scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms from late Wednesday night through Friday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible this weekend in the breezy onshore flow pattern. A cold front will then enter the southeastern states late this weekend, likely crossing our local waters late Sunday night or Monday, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Strong high pressure building over the Great Lakes region in the wake of this front will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard during the early to middle portions of next week, likely create a surge of strong northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters, with Small Craft Advisory conditions becoming increasingly likely for much of the week.

Rip Currents:

Breakers of 3-4 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches today and Thursday will combine with a persistent . A high risk of rip currents will remain in place at the northeast FL beaches today, where breakers will combine with a persistent easterly ocean swell to create a high end moderate risk at all area beaches. Breezy southeasterly winds from Friday through Sunday will increase breakers slightly to the 3-5 foot range at the northeast FL beaches and 2-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches, with a longer period easterly ocean swell likely creating a high risk at all area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Through The Weekend.

High pressure over the Atlantic will bring southeasterly- easterly winds over the area through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon to evening hours mainly over inland areas as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. This flow regime will keep RH values well above critical daily as moisture moves in from the Atlantic. Elevated mixing heights inland will result in areas of high dispersions each afternoon into the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to Areas of locally dense fog potential each morning this week and this weekend, mainly at inland locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 58 84 63 / 10 0 10 10 SSI 80 60 76 65 / 0 10 20 10 JAX 85 58 82 64 / 0 10 30 10 SGJ 81 63 80 65 / 0 10 50 20 GNV 86 59 86 63 / 10 10 40 10 OCF 86 59 87 64 / 10 0 50 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.