textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Numerous Freeze Events through the Weekend. This Morning: Freeze Warning Inland southeast GA. Tonight: Freeze Watch Inland southeast GA with frost. Friday Morning Hard Freeze Inland & Coastal Freeze

- Dangerously Cold Wind Chills in the teens to low 20s. Consecutive Nights of Inland Freezes Fri Night to Mon Night next week

- High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough Surf Today Northeast FL Beaches

- Small Craft Advisory this Morning

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Cooler and breezy at the coast to the St. Johns River basin today under filtered sunshine as high clouds pass overhead. High temperatures will range from just below normal in the mid 50s across southeast GA generally north of Waycross to the mid 60s toward our southern north-central FL zones.

A freeze watch remains in place for southeast GA tonight with frost expected as high clouds generally thin overnight. Onshore winds will weaken into the evening, but the NNE component combined with increasing low level clouds from the Atlantic as a weak coastal trough forms offshore of FL will keep FL temperatures more mild and frost formation less likely. At this time, continued with lows near 30 across inland southeast GA to the low/mid 40s for most of northeast FL. The cooler location of NE FL will be near the I-10 corridor, on the northern fringe of low clouds. At this time, have areas of frost forecast and mid to upper 30s west of Jacksonville toward Live Oak. A frost advisory may be issued later today near the I-10 corridor with a likely upgrade of the existing freeze watch to a freeze warning for inland southeast GA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Surface high pressure ridge will settle overhead of the region Tuesday. A wave will develop over the Gulf, under an upper trough, and lift northeast across central FL Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front dips into the southeastern US. Isolated to scattered showers are expected, with the greatest chances over SE GA.

Near normal temperatures for Tuesday and Tuesday night, with readings a little below Wednesday and Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Waves will continue to move northeast across FL Thursday, as the upper trough dips into the Carolinas. Best shower chances Thursday will be across north central FL. Below normal temperatures expected Thursday.

The upper trough will move off to the northeast Thursday night, as surface high pressure builds to the northwest. A cold airmass will rapidly advect into the region through the night, with a widespread freeze forecast.

At this time, it looks like the rain ends early enough ahead of the subfreezing temperatures for surfaces to dry, limiting the potential for flash freezing of lingering wet surfaces. This potential will continue to be monitored through the week.

High pressure ridge will be nearly overhead through Friday night, with mainly clear skies and temperatures remaining below average.

Another upper trough will dip into region Saturday through Sunday with a surface front moving through. A few showers will be possible over the weekend. After a seasonal day on Saturday, below average temperatures for Saturday night and Sunday following the surface front.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Prevailing VFR advertised at all terminals through 00z. High clouds will continue to stream overhead through the day with increasing mid and low level clouds from the south and east into the afternoon. Low cloud bases will near 3.5-5 kft from the east into the evening. Latest guidance continued to favor bases above MVFR in the 4-6 kft agl range at SGJ and GNV after 00z so continued with this trend.

Gusty NNE winds will 'ramp up' at the coast through 12z with peak gusts nearing 25 kts through early afternoon. Inland winds will generally range between 7-11 kts after 12z with coastal terminals 13- 16 kts. Winds subside into the evening with speeds 5-10 kts after 00z at the coast to less than 7 kts well inland at VQQ/GNV.

MARINE

Small craft advisory conditions continue through mid-morning as high pressure builds northwest of the region. A coastal trough begins to form over the local waters later today and persists through Tuesday with a chance of showers over the outer waters. The trough weakens Tuesday night as westerly winds increase into Wednesday ahead of the next approaching front. Small craft advisory conditions return late Wednesday into Thursday as the front moves southward across local waters. Small craft advisory conditions persist through Thursday night as strong high pressure builds west of the region. Winds and seas subside Friday as the high builds directly over the local waters.

Rip Currents: High risk today for northeast Florida beaches with rough surf. Moderate risk today for southeast Georgia beaches. Tuesday moderate risk for most northeast FL beaches, but will have to evaluate high risk potential for St. Johns and Flagler counties. Low risk expected for southeast GA beaches Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

-Low RH values over inland SE GA Monday and Tuesday afternoons -Areas of low dispersions Tuesday -Patchy high dispersions inland Wednesday -High dispersions Thursday -Low RH values across area Friday

High pressure will build to the northwest Today, then build overhead Tuesday. A wave of low pressure will move across FL Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves across the southeastern US, producing shower chances. HIgh pressure will build to the northwest again Thursday night, then overhead on Friday. A cold front will move southeast across area Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will build to the northwest Sunday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected this morning or Tonight. A freeze is expected over inland SE GA Tonight. A widespread freeze is forecast for Thursday night. A light inland freeze expected Friday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 30 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 54 38 60 46 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 58 39 64 45 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 60 47 65 50 / 0 0 10 20 GNV 63 42 66 46 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 65 45 66 49 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-163-165-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474.