textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week. Critically Low Minimum Humidity Values inland each day. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread

- Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Near record warmth inland areas with highs near 90F

- Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours

- Wildfire risk remains very high

Dry, sunny, and warm weather continues today with high pressure dominating over the area. Elevated fire danger persists today with low minimum relative humidity values over inland locations. High temperatures will range today, with an onshore breeze keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s, hotter as you go inland with some locations reaching 90 degrees and near record levels this afternoon before the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland later this afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph possible. Enough moisture coupled with calm winds early this morning and again late tonight will prompt inland fog development over most of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia, with highest chances for patchy dense fog just west of I-95. Low temps continue in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

- Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist as temperatures near or break record highs on Friday

High pressure extending from Bermuda will remain over the area through the end of the week. Warm and dry weather persists as southerly flow continues to bring in warm and dry air into the area. Daytime highs will continue to trend above seasonal norms as temperatures rise into the lower 90s for most locations, with some locations potentially matching or breaking record highs on Friday. Cooler temperatures in the lower to mid 80s along the coast as onshore flow will help to keep temperatures from rising into the 90s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. As mentioned in the previous forecast package, only other noteworthy weather impact will be patchy to areas of fog inland each morning, with patchy "superfog" possible near smoke from any ongoing wildfires.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- The dry and warm weather persist into the weekend. - Morning fog potential to continue each day.

High pressure begins to shift towards the Atlantic on Saturday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A weak southerly flow as the high pressure moves offshore. Dry conditions persist as much of the showers along the front is expected to dissipate before reaching the local area. With dry air filtering in behind the front, the status quo of limited chances of precipitation will persist into the next week. High pressure builds and stretch southward along the eastern seaboard, bringing the potential for another period of breezy onshore flow beginning late Sunday Night/early Monday Morning and lingering into Tuesday.

Another day of record high temperatures on Saturday with highs reaching into the 90s and isolated locations reaching into the mid 90s. By Sunday, temperatures will cool a bit with the approaching front. By the start of the upcoming week, temperatures will be at near normal as highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will be a little above normal during the period cooling to near normal by Monday and Tuesday nights.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Predominantly VFR conditions forecast, though patchy and shallow fog may develop at coastal airfields as wind calms, leading to temporary restrictions to IFR through 12z. Light diurnal winds will begin with a southwesterly flow at or below 10 knots, shifting east to southeasterly through around 10 knots with the sea breeze. Expect the sea breeze wind shift around 17z at the coast, 18z at KCRG, and around 19z at KJAX and KVQQ with gusts around 15 knots. Winds start to decrease after sunset and becoming near calm again by the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through the week and into the weekend, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. Next frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Monday.

Rip Currents and Surf:

Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Inland Min RH Values Each Day This Week

High pressure remains over the area, continuing the dry, sunny, and very warm conditions for inland locations through the weekend. This, combined with the exceptional/extreme drought, will continue the elevated fire risk across the area. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the mid 20s to low 30s into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Today, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week, with higher dispersions likely to develop this weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog will develop each morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 91 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 79 61 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 87 57 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 81 58 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 55 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 89 55 90 59 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.