textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Lowered Visibility Due to Smoke and Fog. Patchy / Areas Inland Fog Through This Morning, Toward I-75 and Suwannee. Dense Smoke Advisory for Wayne, Brantley, and inland Glynn Counties. Smoke

- Impacting Portions of SE GA and NE FL | Monitor Using airnow.gov

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Today

- Isolated/Scattered Thunderstorms Today, and Possibly Mid to

- Small Craft Advisory Portions Waters Late Tonight into Monday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances today and tonight - Areas of smoke will continue near ongoing wildfires

Cold front currently located over northern GA will slowly drop southward throughout the day today, reaching about the FL/GA border by late this evening and just south of the region by late tonight. Available moisture looks to be enough for some isolated to widely scattered showers and t'storms to develop ahead of the boundary this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances for convection, especially t'storms, likely to be across northeast FL where the best diurnal timing of instability will be, as well as along east coast sea breeze that will push inland throughout the afternoon and evening. Upper level support and dynamics are not overly impressive with the frontal passage, though given some drier air entrainment likely lingering aloft, any stronger updrafts will certainly have the potential for some gusty downbursts in the 40-50 mph range and perhaps some small hail, though severe weather is not expected at this time. High temps will be very warm again today, mainly in the mid to upper 80s.

Winds shift more northwest to northeasterly this evening and through tonight as the frontal boundary pushes through the region and a moderately strong surface ridge builds down the southeastern seaboard. One noteable aspect of this flow will be a shift in the smoke plumes from ongoing large wildfires, especially for the HWY82 and Pineland road fires in GA would will likely result in areas of smoke approaching the I-10 corridor for at least several hours durng the evening hours and into the start of Sunday Night. After midnight or so, onshore flow starts to pick up, especially near the coasts as winds pick up to the 10-15G20-25mph range for coastal areas and parts of the St. Johns River Basin towards Monday Morning. This will result in varying low temps across the region, as upper 50s to low 60s will be expected with the cool advection over inland GA with mostly mid 60s for the coasts and elsewhere inland.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period (Monday to Tuesday night:

- Breezy along the coast, with enhanced rip current risk along the coast

- Generally dry and not as warm

A 500 mb ridge will build in over the area Monday into early Tuesday, with the ridge flattening out/pushing southward rest of Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as shortwave disturbances translate across the lower MS valley and the southeast states. Surface high pressure ridge will build in from the northeast on Monday which then shifts to be east and then southeast Tuesday- Tuesday night. The cold front that moved through Sunday night and early Monday will filter in drier air, but there may be isolated showers possible early Monday over northeast FL, and otherwise dry into Monday night and early Tuesday. On Tuesday, low level flow turns southeasterly and moisture increases back up fairly quickly based on latest guidance. PWATs may rise back up to about 1.1 to 1.5 inches late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Both GFS and ECMWF show increased lift and the deeper moisture moving in Tuesday night thanks to those shortwave disturbances and a cold front moving into the southeast U.S., which will lead to enhanced precip chances for inland southeast GA, but at this time limited at 20-30 percent.

Northeast surface winds will be breezy on Monday along the coastal areas with sustained winds near 15 mph gusting to near 20-30 mph.

Temperatures will be below Monday as cooler air advects in behind the front, and rebounding higher Tuesday. Monday night/Tuesday am, cool morning lows 55-60 inland, and around 60/lower 60s toward the coast. Light to calm winds and mostly clear skies at times may lead to some patchy late night and early morning fog Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances Wednesday through Saturday

On Wednesday, a dampening 5h shortwave trough passes through the southeast U.S. with an associated cold front moving toward southeast GA. The cold front will move into move through the forecast area Wednesday night while slowing and eventually moving into central FL area Thursday afternoon or evening. This front stalls on Thursday night over the central FL peninsula area, then possibly pushes back north into the northeast FL late Friday or Saturday. This occurs as models show weak frontal wave development in the north central Gulf.

Chances for showers and a few storms exist for mainly northern half of the area Wed and Wed night, and then for northeast FL on Thursday, in either case is due to the frontal boundary and sufficient airmass moisture. On Thursday night, drier air and less dynamics will bring only slight chances of showers, at best. On Friday, with the front south of the area, an overrunning situation covers the region so mainly low-end chance of showers as moisture overrides the slightly relatively cool airmass. Increased chance of showers and possible storms on Saturday as disturbances in the mid levels move across the southeast states.

Temperatures will be above normal Wednesday into Thursday, with a record high or two possible Wednesday. Behind the cold front for rest of the week it will trend near or below normal.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

MVFR cloud decks are expected to lift by midmorning with scattered convection developing across the forecast area, with showers and possible isolated storms becoming more likely in the afternoon and into this evening. Developments forming ahead of the advancing frontal boundary are expected to disperse before the end of the forecast period with winds shifting about to become more out of the northeast.

MARINE

High pressure shifts east of area waters through today. A cold front will then drop south towards the today and will cross our local waters tonight, with low pressure along this front strengthening somewhat off the Carolina coast by Monday. Winds will shift to northerly on Sunday night and then northeasterly by Monday morning, with Caution to marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions likely later today into tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight ahead of the boundary. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local waters on Tuesday and Wednesday before another cold front will then approach our area from the northwest late next week.

Rip Currents:

Rip current risk will be low at area beaches today as a weaker onshore flow is expected with surf around 1-2 ft. Rip current risk increases Monday into Tuesday due to increased onshore flow with risk increasing toward high.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Today And Monday - High Dispersion Possible Wednesday

A cold front will begin to affect the area today, moving into southeast GA from the north by late this afternoon and early evening and then through northeast FL later tonight. A chance of showers and thunderstorms expected late today mainly over the eastern zones. Winds eventually turn to the northeast tonight across the area following the frontal passage.

High pressure ridge will prevail Monday with a moderate northeast wind flow over the region. Breezy northeast winds up to 15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph expected Monday, highest wind speeds toward the coast.

High pressure will build over the area Monday night into Tuesday.

MinRH values may drop to 30-35 percent for inland southeast GA Monday and Tuesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog this morning and Monday morning. Chances for showers and thunderstorms today, and again Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 87 60 81 55 / 20 20 0 0 SSI 83 63 72 64 / 30 30 0 0 JAX 88 63 77 60 / 30 30 10 0 SGJ 85 65 76 64 / 30 40 10 10 GNV 88 63 84 59 / 20 10 10 0 OCF 87 64 84 61 / 20 10 20 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Dense Smoke Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ136-152-153. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450- 452-470-472.