textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight & Early Sunday Morning. Potential Highest Impact Area: I-75 Corridor

- Near Record Warmth Continues Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Southeast GA & the

UPDATE

Early update to account for continued scattered to isolated pre- frontal shower activity moving eastward across southeast GA and the northern Suwannee River Valley. Drier air that mixed own across the St. Johns River basin will continue to limit southward extend of rainfall potential to mainly areas near and north of the I-10 corridor overnight as the front settles southward. Isolated thunderstorm risk was introduced for inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley this evening where surface based instability nosed upward through the day with CAPEs 500-1000 J/kg under relatively cool mid level temperatures. South of the front tonight as it settles across northeast Florida, Gulf stratus and fog will increase after midnight and expanded inland toward the Highway 301 corridor through daybreak. Best potential for localized fog with visibility < 1 mile at times will be across the Suwannee River Valley where winds will be weaker, while elevated winds near and trialing the front will keep dense fog risk minimal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Dry weather will be in place for Sunday and Monday as dry air associated with the stalling frontal boundary settles in over the forecast area and high pressure ridging extends over the region from out of the west. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the beginning of next will be in the lower to mid 80s and upper 70s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s over inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coastline.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A strong cold front will move into the region from out of the north on Wednesday and into Thursday, bringing showers and possible embedded thunderstorms on Wednesday. Drier weather will settle over the forecast area following the passage of the frontal boundary with northerly winds through the end of the forecast period. Above average temperatures through midweek will drop to be near and below normal for the latter half of the week as cold air settles in over the forecast area. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday may challenge preexisting daily records.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Fog has fully dissipated this morning, leaving VFR conditions that will be expected through at least this evening. Winds will be a bit breezy ahead of an approaching front, mainly in the 10-12 knot range before easing after sunset. Low stratus and fog development will be expected across most of the area overnight tonight, with the greatest chance for high impacts being at GNV and VQQ. At least MVFR ceilings will be expected area-wide, though potential certainly exists for IFR and even LIFR conditions, mainly for ceilings as winds will be slightly stronger than previous nights as the front moves through. A brief SHRA cannot be ruled out at any airfield tonight, though overall this front is expected to be a dry passage.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure ridge will sink south of the area today. A weakening and mostly dry frontal boundary will then push southward through the coastal waters tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure will build eastward on Sunday towards the Mid-Atlantic states by Monday afternoon, with breezy onshore winds developing across our local waters from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. A stronger cold front will then push eastward across the southeastern states on Wednesday into Thursday, with southerly winds expected to develop ahead of this front beginning on Tuesday evening.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday NE FL Low Sunday

DISCUSSION

Breezy southwesterly winds will spread across the entire area today as a mostly dry frontal boundary pushes southeastward into and through the region tonight into Sunday. This will lead to good daytime dispersions area-wide and an increase in low level moisture. Unfortunately, this frontal passage will lack any much needed rainfall for the area suffering from severe/extreme drought conditions. Northeasterly winds behind the front Sunday will trend easterly by Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy to areas of fog are likely this morning. Dense fog will be focused along the I-75 corridor this morning. Patchy inland fog will remain possible across NE FL both Sunday and Monday mornings.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1973 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 81/1997 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 86/1906 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 83/2011

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 59 79 51 77 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 63 77 60 73 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 63 82 56 78 / 20 0 0 0 SGJ 64 80 61 78 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 65 83 57 82 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 63 82 58 82 / 10 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.