textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents For Area Beaches Tuesday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week. Dry Conditions Will Support Increase Risk of Fire Spread

- Fog Potential Each Morning through Friday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Near record warmth inland areas with highs upper 80s/near 90F

- Locally dense fog possible during late night/early morning hours

- Moderate rip current risk at NE FL/SE GA beaches

High pressure conditions will continue through today and tonight with calm weather and easterly to southeasterly flow as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland during the afternoon hours. The sea breeze will increase winds to 10-15G20 mph as it moves inland. A slightly later arrival of the sea breeze over inland areas today will allow for Max Temps to reach into the mid/upper 80s with a few highs near 90F over far inland areas which will approach near record values at some inland locations. Otherwise expect Max temps in the lower/middle 80s along the I-95 corridor and in the upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic Coastal areas prior to the sea breeze pushing inland. Lows generally still in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s inland. Low level moisture and near calm winds towards sunrise both mornings will support patchy/areas of fog, with some locally dense fog possible between the I-95 and US-301 highway corridors.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Fog potential each morning especially inland - Dry & warm weather persist

Bermuda high pressure ridging will extend west southwest across the Atlantic waters into the area during the period with daily afternoon seabreeze circulations. Stacked ridging aloft will allow for the Atlantic seabreeze to move well inland Wednesday towards I-75 under sunny skies due to the strong subsidence aloft. Thursday, increasing low to mid level southwest flow well ahead of an upstream trough will shift upper ridging southeast of the area. This will allow the Gulf seabreeze to move further inland to highway 301 along with the Atlantic seabreeze. A subtle increase in moisture will allow for few to scattered flat cumulus clouds Thursday while increasing high level winds bring in more thin wispy cirrus clouds.

Light winds in the column, low level moisture from previous day's seabreeze passage, and mostly clear skies will allow for patchy to areas of fog to develop in the early to mid morning hours before lifting soon after sunrise. Highs will rise to the low 90s inland each day with upper 80s along I-95 and upper 70s to near 80 at the coast on Wednesday, then warming to around 90 along I-95 and in the low 80s at the coast Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- The dry weather will persist, with rising temperatures - Morning fog potential to continue each day.

Friday, mid level trough will pass north of the region with west to southwest flow and dry, sunny conditions as the Atlantic seabreeze remains closer to the east coast. Saturday, stacked ridging returns over the FL peninsula with weak southerly flow allowing both Gulf and Atlantic seabreeze to move inland. By Sunday, a deeper mid to upper level trough will move across the deep south, pushing a cold front into the area Sunday night. However, moisture will be limited with the cold front and only have silent pops for the passage and few showers from northeast convergent flow late Monday over the Flagler coast, southern St Johns river basin, and north central FL. West to northwest winds Sunday will become northerly Sunday night and northeasterly and breezy as high pressure builds to the north Monday.

Record high temperatures into the low 90s expected Friday and Saturday with isolated mid 90s over the interior, cooling slightly Sunday into the upper 80s, and then to near normal levels behind the cold front Monday. Lows will be a little above normal during the period cooling to near normal Monday night.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR will prevail outside of some patchy, shallow fog that is expected to develop at or near JAX, VQQ, and GNV, and therefore we have forecast brief periods of MVFR to IFR vsby (worst for VQQ) for fog development from 06z to 12Z Tuesday. Otherwise, East to southeast winds will increase to 10G15 knots after 14Z Tuesday, then decreasing to less than 5 knots after sunset (00Z) this evening with VFR conds through the evening hours.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly to southerly over the next several days. Next frontal passage is expected Sunday Night with potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Monday.

Rip Currents and Surf:

Solid Moderate Risk of Rips will continue for NE FL/SE GA beaches in the SE/onshore flow the rest of the week with surf/breakers mainly in the 2-3 ft range.

FIRE WEATHER

- Critical low MinRH values Inland This Afternoon - MinRH values below 30 percent inland this week

High pressure ridge over the area today will create dry, sunny, and very warm conditions inland with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees west of US-17. Winds will prevail from the southeast 10-15 mph over northeast FL and 5-10 mph range across inland southeast GA with gusts to 20 mph near the coast. Expect critically low MinRH values of 25-30 percent across Southeast GA locations west of US-17 and inland Northeast FL west of highway 301. Modest transport winds will keep daytime dispersions in the good range.

Dry and very warm conditions remain this week due to persistent high pressure ridging into the start of next weekend. Critically low Min RH values inland will repeat each afternoon lowering to the 25-30 percent into Saturday. Wind flow pattern will prevail from the southeast Wednesday, south on Thursday, southwesterly Friday with the Gulf seabreeze moving further inland and the Atlantic seabreeze staying closer to the coast. Dispersions remain in the good range through the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of fog will develop early this morning across inland locations with morning fog each day early morning this week. There will be potential for Localized "superfog" each morning near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 19: JAX 92/1995, CRG 91/2013, GNV 94/2011, AMG 91/1968

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 89 56 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 77 61 79 63 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 85 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 81 58 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 88 55 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 88 55 89 58 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.