textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Critically Low Humidity this Afternoon for Inland Southeast GA & Suwannee Valley

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches Rest of Today and Tuesday

- Elevated Fire Danger Possible Tuesday through Thursday

- Near Record High Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday

- Breezy with Scattered Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon & Evening. Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible Across Southeast GA

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible Friday through the Upcoming Weekend

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Critically Low Relative Humidity Values Across Inland Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley this Afternoon

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches

Surface ridge axis across southern GA areas will continue through tonight with a shortwave trough pushing off the coast. The ridge and the dry airmass will maintain mostly sunny to locally partly cloudy skies into this evening. Rest of aftn, should be some occasional scattered cumulus across parts of the northeast FL zones where the better low level moisture is located. The low level flow through 850 mb veers further to the south tonight and brings in some increased moisture to the area with PWATs values close to 0.8 to 1 inch and so still quite dry for the airmass in place. We will see another shortwave approach from the northwest late tonight spreading some cirrus in from the west after midnight. The Atlantic sea breeze will push inland rest of today prompting a slight wind easterly wind surge through the rest of the afternoon, pushing to at least a line from Alma GA to Gainesville FL by mid evening. Otherwise, temps in the mid 80s well inland and upper 70s coast. Tonight, with winds becoming light and further low level decoupling, lows tonight in the 50s to around 60 under mostly clear skies. Don't think fog will be much of any issue, but some very patchy, shallow fog will be possible over inland southeast GA where there is a combo of moisture, greater cross over temp, and a calm wind.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry Weather with Warming Temperatures

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

High pressure dominating will allow for dry conditions to continue, with a gradual warm up in temperatures through Thursday. Tuesday, with southeasterly winds, coastal highs will stay in the upper 70s to low 80s as inland highs approach the mid to upper 80s. By Wednesday, winds begin to shift southwesterly, increasing moisture and temperatures into the 90s inland. An Atlantic sea breeze will keep the immediate coast in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm Chances Return Thursday

- Stalling Front Late Week - Minor Cool Down & Passing NE FL Showers

Warm and breezy southwest winds increase ahead of an approaching front with even the immediate Atlantic coast seeing highs in the 90s. Rain chances increase across southeast Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening as the front begins to slow it's southward push as mid level flow becomes near zonal. A few pre-frontal strong to pulse severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon/evening across southeast GA where mid level short wave energy, moderate jet dynamics and diurnally instability phase. The synoptic scale lift exist the region into Thursday night, with the pre-frontal convection shifting south across northeast Florida into Friday as it begins to stall brining welcomed shower and isolated thunderstorm chances. Models begin to diverge this weekend with the meandering front - the GFS lifts it northward a warm front Saturday while the ECMWF depicts stronger high pressure across southeast states Saturday, shunting the front farther south across south-central FL, then pivots the boundary northward as a warm front late Sunday into Monday. At this time, with the higher than normal moisture with the lingering front across the area combined with diurnally driven sea breezes, a chance of daily showers and isolated storms was maintained through the weekend, but timing and coverage is less certain.

The best coverage of rainfall with this next system will once again focus across southeast GA late Thursday into Friday. The LREF has probabilities of at least 0.25" between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon of 40-50% for locations northwest of a Homerville to Waycross to Jesup line. Probabilities decrease to 30-40% of at least 0.25" Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon as the front edges southward into northeast Florida. Not as much rainfall as the last frontal system nor as widespread, but it is welcomed.

Temperatures will be above climo Thursday area-wide, dropping overall closer to normal for Friday and into the start of next week with more of a north/south gradient likely.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

VFR will prevail. There is potential for some mist at VQQ by about 07z Tuesday. Otherwise, anticipate cumulus this afternoon around 5 kft and will likely dissipate by 00z-03z. For sfc winds, mainly easterly up to 10-15 kt coastal terminals and near 10 kt inland. Winds should diminish tonight.

MARINE

High pressure ridge will continue to shift eastward early this week while a cold front approaches from the northwest. Caution level speeds will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening, well in advance of the cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany this frontal passage on Thursday afternoon and evening, with strong storms possible across the Georgia waters. Breezy northwesterly winds are expected in the wake of this frontal passage late Thursday night, followed by winds shifting to north on Friday morning and then northeast by Friday afternoon as the frontal boundary likely stalls over the Florida peninsula. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Friday through the upcoming weekend as a wave of low pressure develops along the stalled frontal boundary that should be positioned near the northeast Florida waters.

Rip Currents:

Breezy onshore winds will combine with a lingering east-northeasterly ocean swell to maintain a higher end moderate risk at area beaches today. The ocean swell will gradually fade by midweek, but persistently breezy southeasterly winds will keep a moderate risk in place at area beaches through midweek. Gusty southwesterly winds may reduce this risk on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Dispersions Inland Each Afternoon Tuesday Through Thursday

Dry weather is expected to prevail area-wide through Wednesday as high pressure remains in control. With the drier airmass behind the recent front, very good mixing inland each day through Wednesday will result in minRH near critically low values during the afternoon and evening, as well as an overall increase in daytime dispersions each day. The next frontal boundary to affect the area will approach Wednesday Night, bring chances of rain mainly for southeast GA on Thursday with lower chances across northeast FL as the front weakens Thursday Night and into Friday. Thunderstorms will also be possible with the front, especially north of about the I-10 corridor.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy, shallow inland fog possible Tuesday morning. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for:

Wed, May 6: JAX: 96/2012 CRG: 96/2012 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 95/2012

Thu, May 7: JAX: 94/1977 CRG: 94/1977 GNV: 96/1955 AMG: 93/1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 55 85 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 64 77 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 57 83 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 81 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 58 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 61 88 64 93 / 0 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.