textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late Week. Few Strong Thunderstorms over North Central FL on Wednesday

- Increasing Rain Chances This Weekend into Early Next Week. Isolated Strong Thunderstorms and heavy downpours This Weekend. Locally heavy Rainfall Potential Late This Weekend into Early Next Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Areas of dense fog Southeast Georgia early this morning

- Isolated thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible over inland Northeast Florida this afternoon/evening

East to southeast steering flow around the High Pressure center to the NE of the region will continue to slowly increase moisture levels across the local area with PWATs pushing into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range across NE FL and into the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range across SE GA. These moisture levels along with diurnal heating and inland moving sea breeze fronts from the Atlantic should be enough to trigger scattered showers and embedded storms across NE FL by the afternoon hours, with only isolated showers/storms expected across SE GA. Max temps will continue at above normal levels in the lower 90s across inland SE GA, upper 80s/near 90F across inland NE FL and middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches. A few of the storms across inland NE FL could produce some locally heavy rainfall due to slow storm movement, but severe weather is not expected with peak wind gusts from storm activity around 40 mph or so. Shower activity ends around sunset with fair skies overnight and low temps remaining milder than previous nights in the upper 60s inland and lower/middle 70s along the Atlantic Coast. The onshore E/SE flow will continue scattered showers and storms over the Atlantic waters, the flow is generally not strong enough to push much activity into the coast.

A bit more boundary layer cooling under mostly clear skies across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley will support areas of dense fog towards sunrise Wednesday morning and dense fog advisories cannot be ruled out across portions of SE GA, mainly along the Altamaha River Basin. Another round of patchy/areas of fog is expected again late Wednesday Night/sunrise Thursday morning, mainly over inland areas of SE GA and the I-10 corridor west of JAX.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Return to summer like pattern: Scattered thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Steering flow becomes more southerly to finish off the work week, bringing in PWATs near 2" across northeast Florida, slightly drier over southeast Georgia. Diurnal storms are expected to develop both afternoons, with highest coverage over north central Florida. Precipitation chances are a little higher on Friday area-wide as a weak front along the Gulf coast states extends across the area. Overall, convection will simmer down after sunset with loss of heating. There is potential for some isolated stronger storms with wind gusts near 40-50 mph and locally heavy downpours both days. Temperatures return to above normal, with highs in the low 90s inland, and a little cooler near the coast as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland in the afternoons. Nighttime low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s, with some patchy fog possible over inland southeast Georgia.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal thunderstorm chances with strong to marginally severe storms possible Sunday

- Strong northeasterly winds developing Tuesday onward

Moisture increases further this weekend as southerly flow continues to bring in PWATs above 2" across the area along with the front lingering near the Georgia/Florida state border through the weekend.

Sunday through Tuesday, there remains uncertainty in the timing and development of what may be one or more waves of low pressure develop over the northern Gulf waters along a stalling cold frontal boundary and moving eastward through the area with numerous to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. At this time, the GFS and ECMWF both keep the frontal boundary across northeast Florida Monday and Tuesday. Higher precipitation coverage will be along and north of I- 10 Sunday, and closer to the Atlantic coast Monday and Tuesday. Forecast rainfall totals during this period are generally around 2" inland, potentially higher along the Atlantic coast.

Temperatures over the weekend remain above normal, with a slight cool down Monday (especially over southeast GA) as a passing front brings heavy cloud cover and higher precipitation chances area-wide.

Tuesday onward, strong northeasterly winds develop behind the aforementioned front as high pressure builds to the north, creating dangerous marine and surf conditions, as well as gusty winds along the Atlantic coast. Waves of showers will move onshore, bringing concern for localized flooding primarily I-95 eastward where highest forecast rainfall totals are. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday, highs in the mid 70s across southeast Georgia, and upper 70s to low 80s for northeast Florida.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Patchy fog and some stratus will be possible for SSI, VQQ, JAX, and GNV between 08-12Z. Best chance for IFR VSBYs continue for VQQ. Fog dissipates by 12Z. Easterly winds 5-10 kts prevail after 15Z. Rain chances still only in the 20-30% range and will leave out of terminals except for GNV where VCSH or VCTS will likely be needed. VFR CIGS expected during the daytime and evening hours on Wednesday.

MARINE

High pressure over the region shifts northeast through the end of the week, a predominant east to southeast wind pattern takes over and persists through the weekend. This onshore flow will draw in higher moisture levels, resulting in scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms increasing in coverage through the period.

Rip Currents: A combination of long period east swells near 1-2 ft, onshore flow, and prior surf conditions suggest a low-end moderate risk of rip currents through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Moisture will return to the area, with chances of showers and storms increasing this week, the highest coverage will be over north central Florida. By the end of the week, coverage expands but highest thunderstorm chances remain focused across northeast Florida. Overall, dispersion will be fair to good this week, with potentially for areas of low afternoon dispersion this weekend.

Fog Potential...Patchy fog over inland southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida early Wednesday morning, and across inland southeast Georgia Thursday morning.

EQUIPMENT

KVAX (Moody AFB) radar will remain down until further notice. Parts are on order.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 90 67 90 70 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 84 75 85 75 / 20 10 10 10 JAX 88 71 87 73 / 30 10 30 0 SGJ 86 74 86 75 / 20 10 40 10 GNV 90 69 90 72 / 30 10 60 10 OCF 90 70 91 72 / 50 30 60 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.