textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong Onshore Winds & Increasing Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend. Wind Advisory for 40-45 mph Gusts Along the Coast & St Johns River Basin Saturday. Gale Warning for All Atlantic Waters from Saturday Morning through Sunday Morning. High Risk for Rip Currents and High Surf at All Area Beaches this Weekend. Elevated Tide Levels Possible on Sunday Morning Along the Atlantic Coast

- Red Flag Warning for Portions of Inland Southeast GA on Saturday. Minimum Relative Humidity: 20-25% & NE Winds: 15-20 mph, Gusts 20-30 mph. Elevated Fire Danger Elsewhere

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Near Record High Temperatures this Afternoon.

Rather warm afternoon will unfold through the remainder of the afternoon. The morning upper launch measured 850 mb temps around the 75th percentile, which should translate to a peak temperature around 90 degrees in Jacksonville. Under the peripheral warming influence of ridging aloft, highs elsewhere will commonly read in the 80s this afternoon. The inland thermal trough developing due to the anomalous temperatures will drive dry sea breezes inland from the gulf and atlantic this afternoon.

Tonight, the initial edge of a dry cold front will push in from the northwest late tonight, ushering in a drier airmass into portions of southeast GA. This will set the stage for a volatile weather alignment in regards to wildfire and erratic behavior is expected (specific details in the FIRE WEATHER section below). Despite mostly clear skies through the early hours Saturday, prefrontal breezes ahead of the dry front will keep the boundary layer mixed and deter fog from developing. As a result of the overnight breeze, lows will be on the warm side only falling to the mid/upper 60s overnight.

SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Windy conditions Saturday and Saturday night.

Cold front will push south of the area early in the morning Saturday. Strong high pressure will build from the north northwest behind it. Inverted troughing is expected to develop over the coastal waters Saturday afternoon. The strong pressure gradient between the front and high, will yield elevated winds, especially at the coast. A wind advisory may be needed for the coast. The front is expected to pass through largely dry. The northeast flow across the relatively cooler coastal waters, coupled with cloud cover, will result in below normal temperatures over much of the area. Far inland NE FL will have less clouds and less influence from the waters, so near to above normal temperatures are possible.

The high will become centered to the northeast Sunday, with coastal trough remaining. The high will move further away Sunday night, with trough weakening. With the high moving away, winds will decrease at the coast Sunday, but temperatures will remain a bit below normal during the day.

The best chance for precipitation this period will be coastal NE FL Saturday night through Sunday, due to convergence associated with the trough.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Mainly dry weather to continue, with above normal temperatures

High pressure will build further away to the east northeast Monday through Wednesday. With some coastal troughing remaining, precipitation chances Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will remain above normal through Wednesday.

There is some uncertainty in the Thursday and Friday time frame, as to whether the cold front will move into the area, or the ridge will hold it to the north. At this point, models are favoring keeping the boundary to the north. Temperatures will remain above normal for Thursday and Friday, with the best chance for precipitation over SE GA near the frontal zone.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions with winds around 5 kts shifting from WSW to NNE continue until 10-12Z as a mostly dry cold front passes through. A surge of strong NE winds will develop in the wake of the front early Saturday morning and then spread across the TAF sites from north to south. This will also be accompanied by an MVFR stratus deck with a base around 2.5kft. By 15Z, all TAF sites will have sustained winds of 15-25 kts and gusts of 25-35 kts. Highest gusts will likely be at KSSI, KCRG, and KSGJ. Gusty winds will persist through at least 21Z.

MARINE

Southerly winds this evening increase ahead of a dry cold front. A strong northeast wind surge will then push across the waters early Saturday morning bringing a long period of gales that will extend to around the early morning hours on Sunday. The strongest winds and gusts are expected Saturday afternoon and through the late evening when gusts frequently may reach 40 knots. This will build seas to very hazardous heights for small craft and may be close to 10 to 15 feet offshore and 8-10 feet closer to the shoreline. Winds will gradually diminish to small craft advisory levels Sunday into Monday while winds shift to blowing directly onshore. Coastal troughing will develop within the onshore flow and generate rounds of isolated showers through the weekend and into early next week.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Life threatening surf conditions will develop with a strong surge of northeasterly winds on Saturday. A High Surf Advisory will be in effect through the weekend as breakers build to 6-9 feet at area beaches by Saturday afternoon. Stronger-than-normal rip currents are likely to develop and there will be a significant risk for anyone who ventures into the surf zone this weekend. Surf will only gradually diminish early next week as breezy onshore winds prevail.

Minor tidal flooding and beach erosion may be possible during the Sunday morning high tide cycle along our local Atlantic coast.

FIRE WEATHER

MINRH LEVELS TO FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT OVER INLAND SE GA - Saturday AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND - Wednesday Through Friday

A cold front will move south across the area Tonight. Strong high pressure will build to the north northwest as an inverted trough develops over the coastal waters Saturday. A surge of winds will move down the coast Saturday morning. While gusty winds can be expected across the area, the strongest will be at the coast. Mixing will be significant over inland SE GA Saturday afternoon, leading to a very dry airmass, to accompany the gusty winds. Therefore, a red flag warning is in effect.

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature for Sunday through next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Thunderstorm potential mainly NE FL Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms potential inland Tuesday afternoon. A few thunderstorms possibly north central FL Wednesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 59 69 45 72 / 0 10 0 0 SSI 60 68 56 69 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 59 70 54 73 / 0 10 10 0 SGJ 60 68 58 72 / 0 20 20 10 GNV 59 77 55 76 / 0 10 10 10 OCF 60 80 58 77 / 0 0 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night for FLZ038-124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-433- 533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Saturday through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night for GAZ154-166. High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Saturday through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ132>136-149-151-162-163-250. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474.