textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy Dense Fog Possible Wednesday Morning Near I-75

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches

- Near Record High Temperatures through Wednesday

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Thursday & Thursday Evening. Isolated Strong Storms Possible Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, & Small Hail. Beneficial Rainfall Expected Area-Wide

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Thursday Afternoon through Friday Morning

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Areas of dense fog are possible during the predawn and early morning hours Tuesday, mainly along the Interstate 75 corridor.

Mostly sunny skies and well above average temperatures continue this afternoon, with inland highs peaking in the upper 80s to near 90. Coastal highs will be a little cooler in the lower 80s as an onshore breeze develops. Mild lows are expected tonight, in the 60s areawide with fog moving in off the Gulf in the pre-dawn hours, as well as over the northeast Florida local Atlantic waters. Patchy dense fog may be possible near the I-75 corridor.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Near to Record high temperatures Wednesday - Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday

High pressure will build more toward the southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Temperatures will rise to well above average Wednesday, with near to record highs inland around 90, and lower to mid 80s at the coast. Lows in the middle 60s will be common Wednesday night.

The cold front will move southeast across the area Thursday. At this time, the front is expected to weaken as it passes through, as better support lifts to the north. Therefore, the greatest chance for strong to severe storms will be inland. Given forecast timing, temperatures will rise into the mid 80s over coastal NE FL, so diurnal instability could lead to a few strong storms closer to the coast as well. Inland highs on Thursday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure will build from the north northwest Thursday night, with a coastal trough developing. This coastal trough will keep shower chances going through the night, with activity ending from northwest to southeast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday

High pressure will become centered to the east northeast Friday, with an inverted trough near the coast. This trough will keep the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast for southeastern counties. Highs Friday will range from around 70 at the coast, to the mid 70s to lower 80s inland. This pattern will remain into Friday night, with lows in the lower to mid 50s over SE GA, to the mid 50s to lower 60s NE FL.

High pressure will be northeast of the region over the weekend with moist southeast flow bringing shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages over the weekend.

A cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday. This will bring a chance for a more widespread shower and thunderstorm event.

High pressure will build from the northwest Tuesday, bringing in a drier and noticeably cooler airmass.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected today for the TAF sites, with relatively calm winds.

MARINE

Locally dense sea fog may develop at times Wednesday, especially for the near shore waters north of St. Augustine. Onshore winds will likely surge on Wednesday evening, resulting in Caution conditions throughout our local waters. Otherwise, a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states on Wednesday night will cross our area on Thursday afternoon and evening, accompanied by showers and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will create Small Craft Advisory conditions throughout our local waters on Thursday afternoon, with these conditions continuing on Thursday night and Friday morning as high pressure briefly builds over the Mid-Atlantic states. Winds will quickly shift to northerly on Thursday night and then northeasterly by early Friday before speeds gradually diminish on Friday afternoon and evening.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Wednesday due to a persistent easterly ocean swell of 9-10 seconds. Strengthening southerly winds may combine with this swell on Wednesday to create a high risk at the northeast FL beaches, with at least a moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Wednesday, Thursday And Saturday

High pressure will build to the east southeast through Wednesday. A cold front will cross area Thursday. High pressure will build to the north northwest Friday, then to the northeast over the weekend. Another cold front will cross region on Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Best chance for fog Tonight, along the I75 corridor, and coastal NE FL. Shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast from Thursday through Monday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 10: KJAX: 91/1974 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 90/1974 KAMG: 88/1974

March 11: KJAX: 89/1967 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 88/1974 KAMG: 86/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 10: KJAX: 65/1922 KCRG: 64/1980 KGNV: 66/1909 KAMG: 62/1992

March 11: KJAX: 66/1880 KCRG: 67/2015 KGNV: 64/1973 KAMG: 70/1975

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 88 62 89 63 / 10 0 0 10 SSI 79 63 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 90 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 85 64 85 64 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 90 63 91 62 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 90 64 91 62 / 10 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.