textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Dense Fog/Sea Fog Late Overnight to Early Morning. Main Focus Area This Morning: I-75 Corridor & Southern Counties Towards the Coast. Areas of Sea fog Over Nearshore Waters through Late Morning

- Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this Weekend

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of the Region

- Small Craft Advisory expected Sunday through Monday

- Freezes Likely Monday Night and Tuesday Night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Southwest flow continues throughout the day today and tonight as high pressure remains to the east/southeast of the region. This morning, along with a few showers or sprinkles that may stream across the area, low level moisture continues to increase in the southwest flow off the Gulf, which will result in plenty of low stratus formation as well as some patchy to areas of fog. Hi res guidance has backed off a bit with the fog potential this morning, likely due to surface winds around 3-5 mph persisting through the early morning hours. However, still expecting any areas where wind drops off enough to develop fog, which could be dense at times. Main concern areas will be the southern I-75 corridor area and eastward across southern Counties towards the Atlantic coast. Low temps will be mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Fog dissipates by around mid morning as the southwesterly flow regime continues to ramp up in the strengthening gradient ahead of an approaching front today. Similar to Wednesday, more of a south to southeast wind component near the immediate coastline will keep temps a bit cooler in the upper 70s, though widespread readings in the low to mid 80s will be expected inland despite at least a mix of sun and clouds and possibly mostly cloudy conditions north and west. There will be about a 15-30% chance of showers over the Upper Suwannee Valley and interior southeast GA throughout the day, though certainly not expecting a washout.

An overall similar regime is expected again tonight, with low clouds increasing off the Gulf overnight and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Patchy to areas of fog will be expected in similar areas as well Friday Morning overall, though fog potential does look to spread into much of northeast FL early Friday. A few showers will similarly be possible throughout the night, mainly for north and western areas.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

A broad mid to upper level ridge will dominate the FL region Friday into early Saturday with mean surface-500 mb ridge located near south FL. For Saturday into Saturday night, the ridge will begin to shift well east of the area as a deep layer trough moves into the eastern CONUS and down to the northern Gulf coast. The forecast area will remain in relatively moist southwest flow with a chance for showers expected Friday and especially by Saturday as PWATs hover around 1 to 1.5 inches, with highest amounts over southeast GA. Some weak instability will be realized in the afternoon and evening time on Friday and Saturday over southeast GA. Can't rule out an isolated storm over inland southeast GA from Friday afternoon into the evening. On Saturday, we kept a mention of slight to chance (20-30 percent) thunderstorms with at least 500 joules of CAPE. On Saturday night, these chances drop southward toward the I-10 corridor. However, instability likely to weaken Saturday night making the t-storm forecast more challenging.

With the moist low levels comes the chance of nightly fog with the low stratus as well, with periods of locally dense fog expected especially for the I-75 corridor but may reach to the coastal areas as the low level transport winds carry low level moisture to the east.

Temperatures will be well above normal this period with record high temperatures likely Friday and Saturday. Lows will trend to the 60s both Friday night and Saturday night. Breezy southwest flow during the late morning and afternoon hours with winds to around 15G25mph.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

This period will be transitional from the recent warming trend as a deep trough evolves over the deep south from Sun-Mon night, but then already moving east of the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

At the surface, both the GFS and ECMWF have the cold front laying southwest-northeast across northeast FL early Sunday morning, with a chance of showers and perhaps a brief isolated thunderstorm along it for the morning time. The front will continue to shift south Sunday aftn, ushering in a much colder and drier airmass to the area on brisk northwest winds. Highs on Sunday in the mid 60s north and mid to upper 70s south and generally above normal, with the high temperatures occurring in the morning over southeast GA before the colder air arrives. Strong high pressure ridge initially at around 1048 mb over the northern Plains will build southward on Sunday from the central U.S. to the Gulf coast, and then weaken while moving eastward and into our area Monday to Wednesday.

With the strong cold push, an inland advective freeze possible by early Monday morning, and then a widespread freeze and frost Monday night and probably again Tuesday night. There is potential for a hard freeze in a few inland locations both nights. Wind chill values could reach advisory criteria over northeast FL Tuesday morning. Highs on Monday and Tuesday only in the 50s most locations, and then temps begin to rebound a bit by Wednesday with highs in the 60s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

FG and low stratus are beginning to spread inland from the Gulf early this morning, which is expected to especially impact VQQ and GNV through about mid morning where IFR/LIFR conditions are expected. Confidence is lower further north and east towards Atlantic and Duval terminals, though still expecting at least MVFR vsbys and some SCT stratus. Trends will continue to be monitored throughout the morning, as IFR ceilings will be possible at all Atlantic Coast airfields, especially south of SSI. Winds around 3 to 5 knots may limit FG potential, or result in "on and off" lower vsbys throughout the morning. Clouds and fog will dissipate by mid to late morning with VFR expected to return though with breezy southwesterly flow. A few isolated SHRA will be possible, though any of this activity will be light and with little to no operational impact. FG and low stratus will be likely again tonight, though beginning right near or after the forecast period.

MARINE

High pressure east of the Florida Peninsula will continue to extend a ridge axis westward across area waters through Saturday. An approaching frontal boundary and breezy southwesterly flow will result periods of isolated to scattered showers through this time frame, especially over GA waters. Showers will increase SAturday Night through Sunday Morning as the front moves through, with a breezy northwesterly flow developing behind the front as well as likely Small Craft Advisory conditions. High pressure north and west of the region will then be the main weather feature early next week, slowly moving almost directly over the area by mid week.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be moderate through Friday at area beaches thanks to breezy offshore flow and some remnant long period swells.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas of high daytime dispersion this afternoon and Friday afternoon. - Widespread High Dispersion On Saturday And Sunday - Min Rh At Critical Levels Monday And Tuesday

Prevailing southwesterly flow expected today into Saturday as high pressure ridge remains south of the area, with a cold front entering the area by Saturday night. Breezy southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph will lead to areas of high dispersion both today and Friday, and widespread high dispersion likely Saturday and possibly on Sunday. Moisture will increase ahead of the front the next couple of days with a chance of showers mainly across southeast GA and around the I-10 corridor. Areas of fog expected this morning and early Friday morning. Higher chances showers most areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, with a few thunderstorms also possible. The cold front moves south of the area Sunday leading to a much colder and drier airmass going into early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of Fog are possible each night through Friday night with locally dense fog likely at times. A few thunderstorms forecast for Saturday night, with a few strong storms possible.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures possible today into the weekend.

Thu, February 19: KJAX: 86/1891 KCRG: 85/1975 KGNV: 88/1924 KAMG: 82/2018

Fri, February 20: KJAX: 86/1961 KCRG: 83/2014 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014

Sat, February 21: KJAX: 86/2019 KCRG: 84/2019 KGNV: 89/2019 KAMG: 87/2018

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 81 63 83 64 / 30 20 70 40 SSI 75 60 77 61 / 10 0 40 30 JAX 84 60 86 61 / 0 0 30 10 SGJ 81 60 83 60 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 83 60 85 60 / 0 0 20 10 OCF 83 60 84 58 / 0 0 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.