textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches. High Risk Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches from Friday through Sunday

- Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms Possible on Thursday and Friday

- Areas of Locally Dense Morning Fog Inland Thursday through Sunday

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sun Afternoon through Tues

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

UPDATE

Did not make much change to the ongoing forecast for tonight with minor updates for sky cover, and for patchy fog areas after midnight pushing fog a bit further south. Otherwise, made some minor adjustment for Thursday for POPs as a trough of low pressure approaches from the east. Still reasonable chances at 20-30 percent, but best chances for the coastal areas of northeast FL inland to about the US Highway 301 corridor.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights through Wednesday Night:

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches Today.

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight for Inland Locations Along and North of I-10.

A few isolated showers may move onshore this afternoon closer to Flagler county and move inland into southern Putnam and Marion counties. The southeasterly winds will keep coastal high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, while inland highs will climb into the lower to mid 80s. Tonight, patchy fog will develop over inland areas generally along and north of I-10.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated thunderstorms possible on Thursday and Friday afternoons

Scattered showers with a potential for thunderstorms will develop with diurnal afternoon heating through the end of the week as high pressure over the Atlantic maintains a southwesterly flow over the region and a weak short-lived coastal trough forms and gradually presses inland. Above average temperatures will continue through the end of the week with daily high temps rising into the mid to upper 80s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm potential Sunday into Early Next Week. The greatest potential for stronger storms will be on Sunday afternoon and evening.

Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week as convection builds ahead of an advancing cold front pressing in from out of the northwest in conjunction with a passing upper level trough, followed by drier weather on Tuesday. Above average temperatures over the weekend will drop to be near and below the seasonal average for the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

VFR prevails through Thursday. However, patchy fog will be possible late tonight/early Thursday from 06z to 13z. At this time, brief MVFR vsby is forecast, but some brief IFR vsby is possible mainly for SSI and VQQ. Winds will be east to southeast tonight near 5-10 kt and then subside later tonight. After 15z Thursday, winds become east to southeast at 6-12kt, with an occasional gust to near 20 kt possible.

MARINE

High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states, maintaining persistent onshore winds through the weekend. Small Craft Exercise Caution level seas are expected to develop over the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida on Thursday night as an trough moves westward, increasing wind speeds slightly and generating scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms from Thursday through Friday morning. A cold front will enter the southeastern states late this weekend, likely crossing our local waters late Sunday night or Monday, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Strong high pressure building north of the area will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard during the early to middle portions of next week, likely create a surge of strong northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters, with Small Craft Advisory conditions becoming increasingly likely for much of the week.

Rip Currents:

Moderate rip current risk today, and a moderate risk continues Thursday. Moderate to high risk for northeast FL beaches Friday through the weekend, with a moderate risk for southeast GA.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Through The Weekend

High pressure over the Atlantic will bring southeasterly-easterly winds over the area through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon to evening hours mainly over inland areas as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. This flow regime will keep RH values well above critical daily as moisture moves in from the Atlantic. Elevated mixing heights inland will result in areas of high dispersions each afternoon into the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog potential each morning this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 59 84 62 84 / 0 10 10 40 SSI 63 76 65 76 / 0 10 10 30 JAX 60 83 63 82 / 0 20 10 30 SGJ 63 79 65 81 / 0 30 10 30 GNV 58 87 63 87 / 0 20 10 40 OCF 60 87 65 87 / 0 30 10 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.