textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Numerous Thunderstorms this Evening. Main Area of Concern: Inland Between About HWY 301 & I-75. Strong gusts around 40 mph, Localized Flooding

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Today

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms through Early Next Week. Widespread 1-3 Rainfall Totals Forecast through Monday, with Localized Totals. Daily Marginal Risk of Flooding, especially in Urban and Flood-Prone Areas

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Numerous showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will likely extend through 02z at GNV. Convection should wane between 02z and 04z between I-75 and Highway 301. Intermittent stratiform showers continue for FL terminals through 02z. IFR to LIFR conditions due to fog and low stratus clouds are expected to develop at VQQ after 04Z Saturday, with confidence now high enough to forecast lower MVFR ceilings of 1,000 - 2,000 feet elsewhere, beginning by 09Z. Showers and embedded thunderstorms developing over the northeast Gulf early on Saturday morning may impact the GNV terminal after 13Z. However, confidence was too low to indicate anything other than vicinity shower coverage before 17z. Between 17z and 18z, risk for tstms will increase by late morning/early afternoon, but better chances look after 19z for all terminals with TEMPOS 19-23z for now.

MARINE

A frontal boundary positioned over the Georgia waters this afternoon will become stationary tonight and will then lift slowly northward as a warm front on Saturday. Meanwhile, high pressure building over the Great Lakes will drive a cold front into the southeastern states on Saturday afternoon, with this front stalling near the Florida and Georgia border on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase across our local waters late this afternoon and evening, with additional rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected through Monday evening. A stronger cold front will then sweep southward across our area on Tuesday, with this boundary likely stalling south of our local waters by midweek. High pressure will wedge down the southeastern seaboard in the wake of this frontal passage, creating breezy northeasterly winds beginning on Tuesday evening and likely persisting through at least Thursday evening.

Rip Currents: With general wind forecasts will be fairly weak today through Saturday, and seas at area buoys are 3 ft or less. Still lingering wind-sea swells about 8 or 9 seconds, and surf of averaging about 2 ft, possibly 3 ft at the most. Most of the energy from the east-southeast direction so longshore current will be toward the north. All in all, a low-end moderate risk Friday, and may trend a little lower on Saturday given offshore flow and model guidance showing lower seas/surf.

FIRE WEATHER

A generally wet and stormy weekend expected as a frontal zone lingers over the area and interacts with daily sea breezes. Widespread wetting rain is expected for most locations each day, with locally heavy rainfall causing some minor temporary flooding issues. Saturday, southwest winds prevail with a faster inland progressing west coast sea breeze during the morning with more coverage of storms toward the east coast and across southeast GA in the afternoon and eveningRisk for tstms will increase by late morning/early afternoon, but better chances look to hold north across the lower South Carolina coast. PROB30s 16-19z will hold for now. Any tstm risk should end by 19-20z. . Sunday, the lingering front and a surface low developing along the boundary will bring more rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity into Sunday night. Minimum humidity will remain above critical values. Lower daytime dispersions below 30 units on Sunday near the meandering frontal zone where winds will be weaker. North of the front, along the southeast GA and portions of the northeast FL coast generally north of St. Augustine, breezy ENE winds develop into Sunday afternoon and evening.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in areas where heavy rain recently falls. Erratic winds will occur from thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 70 86 68 81 / 50 60 70 80 SSI 74 88 72 83 / 40 60 70 80 JAX 72 89 71 85 / 50 80 70 90 SGJ 74 89 73 86 / 60 70 50 90 GNV 72 88 72 88 / 70 60 30 90 OCF 73 87 73 88 / 30 60 30 80

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.