textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Dense Fog/Sea Fog expected in the late overnight to early morning. Dense Fog develops tonight into early Thursday along I-75 corridor towards the coast

- Elevated Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this weekend

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of the Region

- Small Craft Advisory expected Sunday through Monday

UPDATE

Overall forecast continues on track overnight as enough clearing over NE FL will allow sea fog/low stratus to push onto the Gulf coast and then spread to I-75 around or just after midnight. As temperatures lower to the dewpoints, radiational fog will help to continue the fog and low stratus to the coast with sea fog then forming along the nearshore coastal waters by sunrise.

Current trends appear a little less supportive of a dense fog advisory for most areas, through I-75 westward appears the best potential. But, generally looking at areas of fog in the 3-5 mile range with sea fog over portions of the coast mostly south of the Jax beaches with patchy to areas of fog north of I-10. Mild overnight lows will only be in the mid/upper 50s with light south/southwest winds 4-8 mph.

Fog will lift into low stratus after 9AM and linger over the nearshore waters until late morning to midday. Otherwise high pressure to the southeast will keep southwest winds over the area 10- 15 mph with gusts 20-25. Cloud cover will decrease into the afternoon with mid level clouds thinning aloft and low level cumulus clouds field persisting. Highs will warm into the low 80s away from the coast and remain a bit cooler at the coast in the mid/upper 70s

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Hazard this period: Dense fog/sea fog potential late tonight.

This afternoon: High pressure ridge axis continues to get shunted further southward down the FL Peninsula which will increase SW flow to near breezy levels this afternoon with sustained SW winds around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph at times. Multi layer clouds continue to push across the NE FL/SE GA this afternoon, and while a few very brief light rain showers and/or sprinkles will be possible, the measurable rainfall chances remain below 20 percent and will keep silent in the forecast for now. Despite the abundant clouds the milder SW flow will push Max temps well into the 70s area-wide with a few spots reaching 80F this afternoon, where more sunny breaks can occur.

Tonight: Southwest steering flow will remain in place with high pressure ridge axis to the south of the region and frontal boundary pushing into the SE States to the NW of the region. This will provide for a more moist SW flow off the NE Gulf and the main impact will be the development of low stratus cloud deck and potential dense fog along the NE Gulf that will likely advect Northeast across all of NE FL and portions of SE GA and into the Atlantic Coastal waters to aid in sea fog development during the overnight hours and into sunrise Thursday morning. NBM probs are much higher tonight for dense fog potential in the 50-70% range, with 80-95% chance for low stratus cloud deck development. Dense fog advisories may be required for portions of NE FL after midnight and into the Atlantic Coastal waters by sunrise Thursday morning. Mild overnight temps are still on track to only fall into the 55-60F range late tonight. Deeper moisture and cloud cover ahead of the frontal boundary across the inland SE GA will likely limit dense fog potential there along with the increased chances (20-30%) for rain showers towards morning.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Hazard This Period: potential for nightly fog.

High pressure will be centered to the southeast Thursday, with a ridging extending cross southern FL. A moist southwest flow will result the chance for a few showers.

The area will be between the high to the southeast, and a frontal zone to the northwest Thursday night through Friday night. Shower chances will continue as the moist southwest flow continues and activity moves in ahead of front.

Temperatures will trend well above normal this period.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Hazard This Period: Thunderstorm potential Saturday night with a few strong storms possible. Inland frost/freeze potential Monday night and Tuesday night.

High pressure will move away to the southeast through the day Saturday, with the cold front just to the northwest. Showers will continue to move across area ahead of the front.

The cold front will move southeast across area Saturday night through Sunday morning. A round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, with a few strong storms possible.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday night. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday as well, but with frontal timing readings could fall during the afternoon hours.

High pressure will build from the northwest Sunday night through Monday. The high will build overhead Tuesday. The high will build away to the east Tuesday night and Wednesday. Inland freezes with frost will be possible both Monday night and Tuesday night.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

The period will begin with VFR conditions through 05Z before fog and low stratus spread inland from the northeast Gulf coast across GNV, then VQQ, and SGJ with to IFR/LIFR/VLIFR levels through sunrise. Lower ceilings and visibility will impact GNV by 05Z to MVFR levels with restrictions down to LIFR levels until 09Z when VLIFR visibility and ceilings prevail until 14Z due to the fog. The fog/low ceilings will spread to VQQ and SGJ by 06Z then lower at times to IFR/LIFR levels until 12-14Z while JAX and CRG may briefly have IFR ceilings 8-12Z. Light south to southwest winds around 5 knots prevail overnight.

After sunrise, despite fog thinning, ceilings will improve slowly at first at GNV with IFR levels by 14Z and then MVFR by 15Z before VFR levels return by 17Z at GNV and all sites. Winds from the southwest around 6-10 knots after 14Z will increase to about 10 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots in the afternoon with a southerly seabreeze at SSI after 20Z under cumulus clouds and thinning mid level clouds.

MARINE

High pressure will continue to nudge south and east of the region through the end of the week, shifting flow more south to southwest. Patchy sea fog will be possible during the late night and morning hours along the Atlantic coast through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night and early Sunday with an approaching cold front. Cooler high pressure ridging builds in behind the front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Sunday into early next week.

Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk at area beaches will continue today due to continued long period swells with periods of 12 to 14 seconds. The higher end risk of rip currents is mainly limited to the northeast FL beaches today, with surf/breakers in the 3-5 ft range. Some decrease in the surf/breakers to 2-4 ft is expected by Thursday and Friday, as well as slight decrease in rip current risk as flow becomes more offshore.

FIRE WEATHER

Areas of high dispersions afternoons from Thursday through - Monday MinRH levels below 30 percent inland at least through Monday and - Tuesday

High pressure will be located to the southeast through Saturday. A cold front will move southeast across area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build from the northwest Sunday night through Monday. The high will build overhead Tuesday, then toward the east Wednesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog is possible each night through Friday night. A round of thunderstorms is forecast for Saturday night, with a few strong storms possible.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures possible late this week into the weekend.

Thu, February 19: KJAX: 86/1891 KCRG: 85/1975 KGNV: 88/1924 KAMG: 82/2018

Fri, February 20: KJAX: 86/1961 KCRG: 83/2014 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014

Sat, February 21: KJAX: 86/2019 KCRG: 84/2019 KGNV: 89/2019 KAMG: 87/2018

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 57 81 61 82 / 10 20 20 70 SSI 56 73 59 77 / 10 20 10 40 JAX 57 81 60 85 / 0 10 0 20 SGJ 57 79 59 83 / 0 10 10 10 GNV 58 82 60 84 / 10 10 0 10 OCF 58 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.