textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions through Friday Morning

- Patchy Frost Expected Across Inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley on Sunday Morning

- Increasing Marine and Coastal Hazards Next Week. Gale Force Winds, Gusty Northeast Winds, and High Rip Current

UPDATE

An incoming cold front is now approaching the "doorstep" of the region and will continue to slide southeastward through the rest of the night. Behind the front, breezy northwesterly flow will advect a much colder and drier airmass into the area tonight. The veil of cirrus will shift southward with the front revealing clear skies overnight and allowing temperatures to fall well into the 40s for the inland portions of northeast FL and southeast GA zones tonight while north-central FL and the NE FL coast cools into the 50s.

Breezy conditions will develop Friday behind the front as another reinforcing front pushes toward the area, bringing an even colder Canadian-sourced airmass Friday night.

SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Colder and Drier Conditions into the Weekend - Wind Chills Drop into the 30s Saturday and Sunday Mornings. - Inland Frost Potential for Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley Early on Sunday Morning.

Another cold front will push across the area on Friday, clearing south of the area by Friday Night, with high pressure building towards the southeastern US on Saturday. Dry conditions will persist through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Breezy northwesterly winds will begin to bring in cooler air into the area, where clear skies are expected due to the dry airmass sitting overhead. This will allow for cooler temperatures to develop on Friday with daytime highs expected in the lower to mid 60s across inland SE GA and mid to upper 60s across inland NE FL and along the coast, while lower 70s across north central FL. Overnight Lows on Friday will dip into the upper 30s across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region, with lower 40s to mid 40s along NE FL and the coast. The low temperatures in combination with the northwesterly winds will allow for wind chills of lower 30s and mid 30s across SE GA and NE FL respectively. By Saturday, winds will ease up as primarily clear skies remain. Daytime highs will be a bit cooler area-wide with highs in the lower 60s with a few locations possibly reaching into the upper 50s. By the evening hours, cold temperatures will bring overnight Lows in the lower to mid 30s across SE GA, lower 40s across NE FL, and mid 40s to lower 50s along the coast. With winds being near calm, wind chills will be a bit 'warmer' in the mid 30s area-wide. But with clear skies, calm winds, and near freezing temperatures, patchy frost will likely develop across inland SE GA on Saturday Night, with areas of frost north of Alma, GA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Seasonably Cool and Dry Weather into Early Next Week. - Increasing Coastal and Marine Hazards Forecast Next Week.

Dry and cool conditions will persist through the end of the weekend. High pressure will continue to stretch across the southeastern US towards the local area, shifting eastward during the upcoming week. Breezy northeastern winds begin to develop as the local pressure gradient tightens through much of the upcoming week. Models indicate a weak low pressure developing along the western Gulf on Monday and progress quickly eastward across southern FL and into the Atlantic by mid-week. This will bring an increase in rain chances , first along coastal locations Monday Night, then towards the St. Johns River Basin by mid-week.

With a shift to onshore flow, temperatures gradually warm through the week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Southwesterly wind speeds are beginning to taper off and generally will remain below 10 knots through the rest of the night as a dry cold front continue southeastward through the rest of southeast GA and northeast FL. VFR conditions, with a gradually thinning veil of high clouds, prevail through the period. Breezy northwesterly winds develop behind the frontal passage on Friday with gusts nearing 20- 25 knots after 16z.

MARINE

Westerly winds increase with a strong cold frontal passage later today and Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected late this afternoon through early Friday morning. A brief lull in the offshore flow is expected on Friday, before another strong surge of Northwest to North winds develops Friday Night with advisory conditions lasting through at least Saturday morning over the local waters. Winds and seas will briefly subside on Saturday as surface high pressure builds into the region, before breezy northeast winds develop Sunday and increase to Small Craft Advisory levels early next week as high pressure builds to the north and low pressure tracks well south of the local waters.

Rip Currents: Strong offshore winds developing Today and remaining in place through Saturday should yield a low risk of rip currents. Northeasterly winds developing by Sunday and into early next week will lead to a return to an elevated risk of rip currents.

FIRE WEATHER

HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AND POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR - Portions Of Se Ga This Afternoon ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ON - Tonight And Friday Night

Breezy westerly surface and transport winds today will develop high daytime dispersions for inland southeast Georgia, with good values forecast elsewhere. Due to breezy winds and lower RHs will bring a potential for elevated fire danger for areas mainly north of Alma this afternoon. Breezy winds continue overnight leading to elevated nighttime dispersions along the coast. A much cooler and drier air mass will then overspread our area for Friday and Saturday. Breezy northwesterly surface and transport winds on Friday will yield very good daytime dispersions nearly area-wide, with breezy transport speeds persisting on Friday night at coastal locations, where elevated nighttime dispersion values are again forecast. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northerly on Saturday and northeasterly by Sunday. Fair to good daytime dispersions are expected this weekend region-wide.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog expected through the weekend. Patchy to areas of frost formation are possible late Saturday night and early Sunday morning across inland portions of southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of inland northeast Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 45 63 37 59 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 52 67 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 50 68 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 54 69 45 62 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 50 69 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 53 71 41 62 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ470-472-474.