textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents today at Northeast Florida Beaches. Moderate Risk of Rip Currents today at Southeast Georgia Beaches

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Across the Area

- Thunderstorm Chances for NE FL Tuesday and Wednesday

- Patchy Fog Development Early this Morning over NE FL and again early Sunday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today through Tonight:

- Patchy to areas of fog this morning and late tonight. - High rip current risk northeast FL beaches.

A mid to upper level ridge of high pressure remains to our west with troughing off the east coast. This will continue a dry northwest flow with another "piece" of shortwave energy dropping into the southeast states later today and tonight. This should only support a few high clouds. Otherwise, the sfc high pressure ridge centered over the northern Gulf will shift slowly southeastward, promoting a west and southwest flow and therefore some warm advection for the area. Skies should remain clear to mostly clear.

After a cool start to temps in the 50s to some 40s and some patchy fog across the south zones, high temperatures will rebound 30+ degrees to the lower to mid 80s area-wide, even toward the beaches. A record high is possible for Craig Airport (CRG). Looks as though the east coast sea breeze may be pinned right at the coast given the westerly flow at about 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

Winds will relax tonight to about 5-10 mph, possibly becoming near calm toward sunrise. Given the stirring winds and the warm advection, lows not as chilly and dropping into the 50s most locations. There is moderate confidence on the development of advection stratus clouds/fog starting about 2-3 AM over the inland northeast FL zones, or basically the I-75 corridor, as flow off the Gulf supports a moistening of the boundary layer. Models supporting this, but to different extents, are the HRRR, SREF, HREF, ARW, and NAM. At this time, dense looks unlikely but local vsby below 1 mile is possible.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Frontal passage on Monday bringing a potential for showers and storms overnight

High pressure conditions will continue through Sunday and into Monday with winds shifting from out of the west and southwest to become more out of the north and northeast by the end of the period as the high pressure ridge shifts southward and a cold front moves into Georgia from out of the north resulting in a slight chance for showers and storms over southeast Georgia overnight Monday. High temperatures for the end of the weekend and the beginning of next week will be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 50s and lower 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-A few thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday

Convective activity will continue Tuesday in association with the frontal passage with showers and possible storms forming on Wednesday as a weak coastal trough develops, with drier weather conditions and clearing skies expected for the latter half of the week as high pressure ridging extends over the region. High temperatures will drop down to be near the seasonal average on Tuesday with max temps trending higher through the week to well above average levels by the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

VFR will prevail this period. The only concern will be some patchy fog that may affect GNV and VQQ to generally MVFR vsby between 07z and 11z. Winds are light to calm currently, and become westerly 5-10 kts, with a few higher gusts, after 13Z.

MARINE

High pressure centered over the Gulf will gradually shift south through early next week. Winds will prevail from the west and southwest through Monday. Southwest winds increase Sunday night into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. A surge of northeast to east winds develop in the wake of the cold front Monday night into Tuesday with small craft advisories likely.

Rip Currents: For today, easterly swells of 3-4 ft with periods of 10 seconds combined with prior rips and support from the NWPS guidance all suggest high risk again for northeast FL beaches and more toward the moderate risk for southeast GA beaches. Will revisit later today or tonight whether this may continue again for Sunday but still anticipate easterly swells of about 3 ft on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

- AREAS OF MINRH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND. - AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

High pressure will be the predominant weather feature through Sunday. A cold front will move south southeast across the area Monday night through Tuesday. A few showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, with a surge of winds from the northeast along the coast following passage. A weak coastal trough will develop on Wednesday bringing potential for showers, mainly near the coast.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog possible over north central Florida tonight with more patchy fog development overnight and into Sunday morning. Chance for thunderstorms SE GA Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Today, Sunday, and Monday:

March 21: KCRG: 87/2020

March 22: KJAX: 90/1935 KAMG: 88/2011 KCRG: 87/2011

March 23: KJAX: 91/1935 KAMG: 86/2012 KCRG: 87/2012

March 27: KJAX: 90/2023 KGNV: 91/1949 KAMG: 88/2021

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 83 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 80 59 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 85 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 82 55 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 82 52 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 82 51 84 55 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333-433. GA...None. MARINE...None.