textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Frost Advisory for Appling, Bacon, Jeff Davis & Coffee Counties late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Patchy to areas of frost for the rest of inland southeast Georgia & the Suwannee Valley

- Increasing Marine and Coastal Hazards Next Week. Gale Force Winds, Gusty Northeast Winds, and High Rip Current

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy to Widespread Frost tonight over inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley

Dry air will continue to move into the area as northwesterly flow persists today. Despite clear skies, high temperatures will stay in the lower 60s area-wide with cold low temperatures tonight. Lows will dip into the 30s to 40s area-wide, coolest up in inland southeast Georgia where temperatures will hover just above freezing. Patchy to areas of frost is likely for the Suwannee Valley up into inland southeast Georgia, with some of our most northern counties seeing widespread frost, hence a Frost Advisory being issued for Appling, Bacon, Jeff Davis, and Coffee counties. If confidence in frost formation increases, the day shift may expand the advisory southward.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Below Normal Temps Continue - Coastal Hazards Increase Monday Night

Benign conditions will persist to end the weekend as high pressure holds strong from the northwest. More sunshine than cloud cover overall for the area, with more of a north-northeast to northeasterly flow as the same high nudges slightly eastward through Sunday Night. Highs will remain below average mainly in the 60s, except a few 70s for far southern areas. Sunday Night is a bit tricky with respect to frost potential, as a light breeze will once again be expected across even inland areas, and mid/high cloud cover is forecast to increase later in the night. The timing of the latter will make the biggest difference, with some if not many areas possibly seeing their low temperatures several hours or more before sunrise. For now expecting low temps to remain just warm enough for any frost concerns, with upper 30s to mid 40s inland Ann upper 40s to mid 50s closer to the coast and St. Johns River.

High pressure to our north and west nudges slightly further east on Monday, also strengthening a bit as it does so. This will result in a slightly stronger flow across the area, especially near the coast and much of northeast FL. This breezier flow as well as plenty of higher clouds associated with an upper trough to the west will keep temps overall below normal once again to start the work week. An isolated shower near the northeast FL coast is possible with the uptick in low level moisture, but the current airmass will likely hold strong enough to avoid any rainfall on Monday. High temps in the 60s to low 70s are forecast for Monday.

Monday Night, an upper disturbance moves overhead, which wont bring any significant weather to our region, but will assist in starting to develop an inverted trough off our coasts into Tuesday, and therefore chances for showers increase for the coasts starting Monday Night. Overall pressure gradient starts to pick up Monday Night as well, and therefore trend us towards another northeasterly wind event that will establish during the long term. Fairly sharp gradient in low temps Monday Night, with 40s north and west and 50s south and east.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: mon-thu

- Increasing Coastal and Marine Hazards

As mentioned above, northeasterly flow continues Tuesday and is expected to remain mostly persistent through the long term at this time as high pressure remains situated to our north and an upper trough/low takes its time pulling away from the area. Coastal/marine hazards are likely for at least mid to late week including elevated rip current risk, rough surf/beach conditions, and some minor tidal flooding. Though long range guidance varies as usual, there is at least agreement with respect to some changes to the pattern around the Thursday/Friday time frame. The aforementioned upper low looks to finally pull away, with a weakening front passing well to our north breaking down high pressure ridging a bit. This will likely weaken the onshore flow at least slightly for late week. Temperatures overall trend near average mid week before leaning above normal late week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies continue during the TAF period. Northwesterly winds this morning become more northerly by late afternoon.

MARINE

High pressure will be located to the northwest through the weekend. The high will build more to the north early next week, with weak troughing developing over area coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through Saturday morning, and again Monday night and continue through at least the middle of next week.

Rip Currents: Strong offshore winds developing Today and remaining in place through Saturday should yield a low risk of rip currents. Northeasterly winds developing by Sunday and into early next week will lead to a return to an elevated risk of rip currents.

FIRE WEATHER

Cool and dry conditions are forecast to persist throughout the weekend and into Monday as well, though not dry enough for any concerns regarding minRH. Winds will become more north to northeast today and remain generally out of the northeast for the next several days thereafter. Mostly clear skies and good mixing will result in mostly good dispersions through the weekend, though these will drop a bit by Monday with an increase in cloud cover. Onshore flow then continues, and likely will strengthen, moving towards mid week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected through the weekend. Patchy to areas of frost formation are likely late Saturday night and early Sunday morning across inland portions of southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of inland northeast Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 60 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 46 63 49 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 62 41 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 62 48 67 55 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 62 40 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 63 40 70 50 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for GAZ132>135. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ450- 470. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ452- 454-472-474.