textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Thunderstorms Each Day through the Weekend. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding

- Increasing Rip Current Potential Later This Week Through the Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Isolated strong storm possible this afternoon into evening

A stalled frontal boundary and low pressure center over GA will gradually weaken and dissipate later tonight as Atlantic high pressure builds westward towards the eastern seaboard. This will maintain WSW flow across the area filtering in drier air (PWATs 1.4- 1.7 in) from the west and confining higher moisture (PWATs 1.9-2.2 in) to north-central FL and along the NE FL and SE GA coasts. Due to the drier air, activity over the NE Gulf will be less active early this morning with only a few showers reaching the I-75 corridor mainly south of Gainesville toward sunrise. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms develop along the inland-moving Gulf sea breeze later this morning into afternoon and then interacting with the Atlantic sea breeze pinned along the coast. Highest rain chances will be along and east of I-95 due to the boundary interactions. Despite the drier air over inland SE GA, wrap-around moisture from the low pressure center over central GA will likely trigger scattered showers and storms north of Waycross this afternoon. With less convective coverage, highs will return to seasonable in the upper 80s to low 90s. Activity gradually wanes into the evening with the loss of daytime heating with a few lingering along the I-95 corridor. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening

A frontal zone will weaken to the north this period, as high pressure begins to build from the northeast. The flow will gradually turn this period as well, going from a more southerly flow on Wednesday to an onshore flow Thursday.

On Wednesday the east coast sea breeze will push to near the I95 corridor, pushing the greatest chances of convection west of I95. On Thursday, the onshore flow will push the best chances well inland.

Temperatures will trend a little below average this period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon and evening

High pressure will build from the northeast through Sunday, with an inverted trough over the local area. The high will build more toward the east Monday, with the trough dissipating.

An onshore flow will prevail through at least Saturday, with the flow coming more from the southeast then south as the high builds more to the east. The onshore flow will help keep greatest chances for convection inland during the first half of this period. The flow change Sunday into Monday will lead to a more sea breeze convergence driven convective pattern, with greatest chances for convection near center of the forecast area.

Temperatures will trend from a little below average for much of this period, to above average by Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Light SSW winds overnight become SW 5-10 kts after 15Z. Coastal TAF sites shift to SSE after 18Z as the Atlantic sea breeze slowly shifts onshore. Low stratus/fog may develop near VQQ. A few showers may move near GNV around sunrise. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop from southwest to northeast and pass near the TAF sites between 18Z - 01Z. Have PROB30s in for potential restrictions from thunderstorms.

MARINE

Frontal boundary will remain stalled north of the waters today and then dissipate on Wednesday. Offshore flow continues this morning with a shift to south-southeasterly this afternoon and evening in the wake of the pinned Atlantic sea breeze. High pressure ridge will build north of the waters by Wednesday with a return to a prevailing southeast onshore flow that will become easterly by Friday and Saturday.

Rip Currents: A wind shift to a more southeast/onshore flow along with some increase in long period swells will build surf/breakers to 2-3 feet by mid-week with a Moderate rip current risk expected and potentially surf/breakers of 3-4 feet by Friday into the upcoming weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Drier air moving in from the west will lower storm coverage today. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will develop later this morning and shift east-northeastward this afternoon into evening. Good dispersions are expected today, with fair to good values for the rest of the work-week. Overall, convection returns to a more diurnal nature Wednesday onward, with storms primarily in the afternoons and evenings. By the end of the week, surface winds will be easterly, bringing some coastal morning showers onshore.

Fire weather operations should anticipate sudden and erratic wind shifts, strong outflow winds, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning in and near thunderstorms.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not anticipated, however patchy fog is possible early this morning for the I-75 corridor.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 91 72 93 73 / 30 20 40 20 SSI 90 77 90 78 / 50 50 20 30 JAX 92 73 92 74 / 40 40 50 20 SGJ 91 74 90 75 / 40 40 40 10 GNV 90 71 92 73 / 30 10 50 20 OCF 89 72 91 73 / 30 10 50 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.