textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions for portions of Southeast GA. Areas along and north of US 82

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Tonight

- Frost Expected Across Inland Southeast GA on Sunday Morning

- Increasing Marine and Coastal Hazards Next Week. Gale Force Winds, Gusty Northeast Winds, and High Risk for Rip Currents

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Mild and breezy Today ahead of strong cold frontal passage expected this evening with much cooler temps later tonight

Breezy west winds will develop today ahead of strong cold front with a mix of mid/high clouds at times. These gusty winds will increase morning low temps in the 50s/60s to the upper 70s/near 80F area-wide with winds pushing the mild temps all the way to the Atlantic beaches. Today will likely be the last with above normal Max temps for the next 7 days. The mild temps will help with the daytime mixing profile today with sustained west winds of 15-25 mph with peak gusts 30-35 mph at times, likely highest from the I-10 corridor northward across SE GA, but expected to remain just below Wind Advisory criteria. The frontal boundary is still expected to push through mostly dry, with measurable rainfall PoPs around 10 percent, so an isolated sprinkle/shower not out of the question, but not expected at this time. Frontal passage still on track for late this afternoon across SE GA, and just after sunset this evening across the NE FL counties. Clearing skies and cooler and drier air mass will filter in later tonight with low temps in the 40s across SE GA and the I-10 corridor/Suwannee Valley area of inland North FL, with lower 50s across the rest of Coastal NE FL counties.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Colder and Drier Conditions into the Weekend - Wind Chills Drop into the 30s Saturday and Sunday Mornings. - Inland Frost Potential for Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley Early on Sunday Morning.

Deep troughing will remain over the eastern CONUS into Saturday maintaining cold and breezy northwesterly flow. Meanwhile, at the surface, Canadian high pressure builds southeastward into the upper MS river valley as low pressure over coastal New England gradually strengthens and shifts a reinforcing, dry frontal boundary across the area Friday night. Despite the cold air advection, full sunshine and a dry air mass should allow highs to reach into the 60s. These values will be about 10 degrees below mid-November climatology. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 30s for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, ranging to the low and mid 40s elsewhere inland and the upper 40s for coastal northeast FL. The strengthening northwesterly breeze during the predawn and early morning hours on Saturday will drop wind chills into the 30s for most locations. Flow decreases Saturday night allowing for winds to decouple and radiational cooling to take hold. Lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will likely fall to the mid and upper 30s across inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley. This will likely create the first frost of the season for these inland locations. Lows elsewhere inland will fall to the 40s, while a northerly breeze keeps coastal temperatures closer to 50.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Seasonably Cool and Dry Weather into Early Next Week. - Increasing Coastal and Marine Hazards Forecast Next Week.

A southern stream trough will emerge from the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and migrate across the Southern Plains and the Ozarks on Sunday and Sunday night. High cloud cover will gradually increase downstream of this trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, with weak cyclogenesis likely in the Gulf early next week. Meanwhile, strong high pressure positioned over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will wedge down the southeastern seaboard, which will gradually tighten our local pressure gradient, creating breezy northeasterly winds early next week. Highs on Sunday will remain in the 60s, except lower 70s for portions of north central FL. Thickening mid and high altitude cloud cover on Sunday night will keep inland lows in the 40s, while a persistent northeasterly breeze keeps lows in the 50s at coastal locations as well as north central FL.

Rain chances will begin to increase next week as the southern stream tracks across the Gulf and across Florida. Weak low pressure may develop along the western Gulf on Monday and progress quickly eastward across southern FL and into the Atlantic by mid-week. A potential extended period of breezy to windy northeasterly winds could develop next week. With a shift to onshore flow, temperatures gradually warm through the week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

VFR conds expected through the period with gusty west winds and cold frontal passage the main features this TAF period. West winds increase to 12-15 knots by 15-18Z with gusts of 20-25 knots expected through the daytime hours, before a wind shift to the Northwest around 00Z with frontal passage and remaining in the 5-10 knot range through the end of the TAF period. Mid/high clouds at times through the TAF period with CIGS mainly in the 15K-25K range.

MARINE

Westerly winds increase with a strong cold frontal passage later today and Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected late this afternoon through early Friday morning. A brief lull in the offshore flow is expected on Friday, before another strong surge of Northwest to North winds develops Friday Night with advisory conditions lasting through at least Saturday morning over the local waters. Winds and seas will briefly subside on Saturday as surface high pressure builds into the region, before breezy northeast winds develop Sunday and increase to Small Craft Advisory levels early next week as high pressure builds to the north and low pressure tracks well south of the local waters.

Rip Currents: Strong offshore winds developing Today and remaining in place through Saturday should yield a low risk of rip currents. Northeasterly winds developing by Sunday and into early next week will lead to a return to an elevated risk of rip currents.

FIRE WEATHER

HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AND POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR - Portions Of Se Ga Today ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS ON - Tonight And Friday Night

Breezy westerly surface and transport winds today will develop high daytime dispersions for inland southeast Georgia, with good values forecast elsewhere. Drier air begins to filter in from the northwest leading to Min RHs dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s. Due to breezy winds and lower RHs will bring a potential for elevated fire danger for areas mainly north of Alma. Breezy winds continue overnight leading to elevated nighttime dispersions along the coast. A much cooler and drier air mass will then overspread our area for Friday and Saturday. Breezy northwesterly surface and transport winds on Friday will yield very good daytime dispersions nearly area- wide, with breezy transport speeds persisting on Friday night at coastal locations, where elevated nighttime dispersion values are again forecast. Surface and transport winds will then shift to northerly on Saturday and northeasterly by Sunday. Fair to good daytime dispersions are expected this weekend region-wide.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog expected through the weekend. Patchy to areas of frost formation are possible late Saturday night and early Sunday morning across inland portions of southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley, and portions of inland northeast Florida.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 79 45 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 78 52 66 44 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 81 50 68 42 / 0 10 0 0 SGJ 80 54 68 46 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 80 50 68 42 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 80 52 70 42 / 10 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ470-472-474.