textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning Fog Potential Daily Through Mid Week. Visibilities down to a quarter mile or less possible, especially inland

- Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

Rest of today, pleasant weather this afternoon with temps in the 70s and lower 80s on easterly flow up to 10-15 mph in some areas. Mostly sunny with some partly cloudy skies in the interior areas. The high pressure system will continue to push northeast of the area tonight with winds becoming light to calm overnight. A few showers are possible over the coastal waters as a weak frontal boundary stalled near our southern zones works northward overnight. The coastal waters are where the better low level convergence and any instability will be overnight. The main forecast challenge will be the fog and stratus forecast with the indications from cross-over temps and the light winds suggesting at least 3-5SM visibilities but some locally lower visibility are certainly possible. The HREF shows potential for areas of dense fog for inland areas which seems plausible given that dewpoints may recover some later in the afternoon and early evening. Even so, the fall off in temps tonight may not be as quick as last night so calls into question how strong the radiation inversion will be tonight. In any event, based on persistent and latest guidance, dense fog advisories may be needed once again. Temps near or just slightly warmer than last night in the mid to upper 50s inland and lower 60s coastal areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure continues to shift further north and east of the area throughout the short term period as a frontal system approaches from the northwest. Areas to possibly widespread dense fog will start us off Tuesday Morning before dissipating by around mid morning, leaving a mild day with a mix of sun and clouds Tuesday Afternoon and Evening. Southerly flow will result in overall warmer temps compared to Tuesday, as low to mid 70s will be common except for some upper 70s near the immediate coast. Fog will be likely once again late Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning with the moisture advection off the Gulf. Low temps Wednesday Morning similarly will be a few degrees warmer: generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Southwest flow picks up on Wednesday ahead of the approaching cold front. Current thinking is for the front to enter interior southeast GA by about late morning Wednesday, pushing across northeast FL late evening through the start of Wednesday Night. Good news given the current ongoing drought situation is this front is expected to feature more showers/convection as compared to the previous one earlier in the week. The bad news is that rain chances will generally drop off the further south and east you go Wednesday and Wednesday Night as more favorable upper level conditions remain north of the region and diurnal instability decreases as the boundary moves through northeast FL. In summary, highest chances for rainfall will be the further north and west you go, with PoPs ranging from around 15-20% near Jacksonville and Gainesville to the 40-60% range north and west of Waycross. Isolated thunder will also be possible, though not expecting significant t'storm/strong t'storm chances at this time.

High temps Wednesday will be a bit trickier based on the FROPA timing as well as rainfall/cloud coverage. Main idea will be 70s generally north and west of Waycross and low to mid 80s south and east. Modest to strong cool air advection fills in Wednesday Night behind the front which brings chances for showers gradually to an end with decreasing clouds. Strong gradient will be expected given the cold advection, with low temps ranging from the 40s over southeast GA and the upper Suwannee Valley to the 50s south and east.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Cooler temps and lower humidity evade the area for Thanksgiving Day and into Friday with high pressure building in from the northwest. The associated high slides north of the region by Saturday before lifting north and east of the region off the Mid Atlantic coast by the end of the weekend. High pressure in control will mean dry/fair weather will prevail for most of the long term period. Temps end the week generally below normal before trending closer to and possibly even above normal for late in the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions with calming winds this evening. Another round of fog/low stratus is on track tonight into Tuesday morning. Models have come into better agreement of IFR/LIFR conditions affecting all TAF sites between 06-13Z. Best chances for LIFR visibilities and ceilings will be the JAX metro sites and GNV. Fog/stratus should lift and dissipate by 14Z. Generally southerly flow around 5 kts prevails on Tuesday.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure system will move northeast and east of the area through Tuesday resulting in breezy winds turning gradually to the southeast and south by mid week. A strong cold front approaches from the west on Wednesday. The front will press south of the local waters Wednesday night into Thursday, trailed by northwest to north winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will continue on Friday and possibly into Saturday as winds shift to the northeast.

Rip Currents: Low to locally moderate risk for today and then low to moderate again on Tuesday with surf to about 1 to possibly 2 foot.

DISCUSSION

AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.. CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

High pressure will be north of the area today and shift east into the Western Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, with northeasterly winds veering to the southeast to southwest during this time frame and dry conditions continuing. Fog is expected to develop once again inland during the early morning hours Tuesday as a warm front lifts north across the area with very little rain chances as it does so. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday morning and create breezy southwesterly winds before moving through the region Wednesday Night and shifting flow northwesterly. Scattered to numerous showers will spread across Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, but will decrease in coverage to the coast with overall precip amounts on the light side. Enhanced flow both ahead of and behind the front will increase surface and transport winds and there produce areas of high daytime dispersions Wednesday & into Thursday inland.

A much drier airmass arrives Thursday and Friday as strong high pressure builds in from the northwest. Very low dewpoints into the 20s inland will create critically low Min RH values over the area Thursday and Friday. Elevated inland winds 10-15 mph gusting to 25- 30 mph will also be close to Red Flag conditions and further forecasts will need to be updated for this potential. Good to high level dispersions expected to end the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS... Areas of Dense fog are expected to redevelop tonight into early Tuesday morning, with patchy fog possible Wednesday morning ahead of the approaching cold front.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

TUE 11/25 WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 85/1992 84/1946 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 83/1992 83/2020 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 85/1955 84/1973 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 83/1986 84/1973

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 56 81 60 78 / 0 0 10 50 SSI 62 77 62 78 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 58 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 20 SGJ 63 80 61 83 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 58 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 20 OCF 58 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.