textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Dense Fog Possible for Locations Along and West of I-75 Wednesday Morning

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches

- Near Record High Temperatures on Wednesday

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Thursday & Thursday Evening. Isolated Strong Storms Possible with Frequent Lightning Strikes, Gusty Winds and Small Hail Possible. Beneficial Rainfall Expected Area-Wide.

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions Thursday Afternoon through Friday Morning

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights through Wednesday Night:

- Areas of dense fog are possible during the predawn and early morning hours Tuesday, mainly along and west of the Interstate 75 corridor.

- Near Record High Temperatures on Wednesday Afternoon.

Mild lows are expected tonight, in the 60s areawide with fog moving in off the Gulf in the pre-dawn hours. Patchy dense fog may be possible near the I-75 corridor.

High pressure will build more toward the southeast Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Temperatures will rise to well above average Wednesday, with near to record highs inland around 90, and lower to mid 80s at the coast. Lows in the middle 60s will be common Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Near to Record high temperatures Wednesday.

- Potential for strong thunderstorms on Thursday.

The cold front will move southeast across the area Thursday. At this time, the front is expected to weaken as it passes through, as better support lifts to the north. Therefore, the greatest chance for strong storms will be inland. Given forecast timing, temperatures will rise into the mid 80s over coastal NE FL, so diurnal instability could lead to a few strong storms closer to the coast as well. Inland highs on Thursday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

High pressure will build from the north northwest Thursday night, with a coastal trough developing. This coastal trough will keep shower chances going through the night, with activity ending from northwest to southeast.

High pressure will become centered to the east northeast Friday, with an inverted trough near the coast. This trough will keep the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast for southeastern counties. Highs Friday will range from around 70 at the coast, to the mid 70s to lower 80s inland. This pattern will remain into Friday night, with lows in the lower to mid 50s over SE GA, to the mid 50s to lower 60s NE FL.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Potential for strong thunderstorms on Monday.

High pressure will be northeast of the region over the weekend with moist southeast flow bringing shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages over the weekend.

A cold front will move southeast across the area on Monday. This will bring a chance for a more widespread shower and thunderstorm event.

High pressure will build from the northwest Tuesday, bringing in a drier and noticeably cooler airmass.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z at the regional terminals, with periods of mainly scattered mid-level cloud cover possible. Periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible during the predawn hours at VQQ. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail after sunrise on Wednesday. Southeast to southerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots this evening will diminish overnight. Southerly surface winds will then develop after sunrise, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots by 15Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will develop near the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals after 16Z, resulting in surface winds shifting to southeasterly and increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty. South to southwesterly surface winds will otherwise increase to 10-15 knots at the inland terminals by 19Z Wednesday.

MARINE

Onshore winds will likely surge on Wednesday evening, resulting in Caution conditions throughout our local waters. Otherwise, a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states on Wednesday night will cross our area on Thursday afternoon and evening, accompanied by showers and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will create Small Craft Advisory conditions throughout our local waters on Thursday afternoon, with these conditions continuing on Thursday night and Friday morning as high pressure briefly builds over the Mid-Atlantic states. Winds will quickly shift to northerly on Thursday night and then northeasterly by early Friday before speeds gradually diminish on Friday afternoon and evening.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue due to a persistent easterly ocean swell of 9-10 seconds. Strengthening southerly winds may combine with this swell on Wednesday to create a high risk at the northeast FL beaches, with at least a moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Wednesday, Thursday And Saturday

High pressure will build to the east southeast through Wednesday. A cold front will cross area Thursday. High pressure will build to the north northwest Friday, then to the northeast over the weekend. Another cold front will cross region on Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Best chance for fog Tonight, along the I-75 corridor, and coastal NE FL. Shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast on Thursday and Sunday through Monday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures on Wednesday:

March 11: KJAX: 89/1967 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 88/1974 KAMG: 86/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures: March 11: KJAX: 66/1880 KCRG: 67/2015 KGNV: 64/1973 KAMG: 70/1975

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 89 63 76 / 0 0 60 90 SSI 63 81 64 76 / 0 0 40 90 JAX 64 91 64 84 / 0 0 30 90 SGJ 64 85 64 83 / 0 0 20 80 GNV 63 91 63 83 / 0 0 30 80 OCF 63 91 63 85 / 0 0 20 70

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.