textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through the Weekend

- Locally Dense Inland Fog Inland Sunday Morning

- Near Record Highs Possible Today and Sunday

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sunday Afternoon through Monday

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the local Beaches This Weekend.

- Near Record Inland High Temperatures This Weekend.

- Patchy inland fog possible again late tonight.

Rest of Today: High pressure ridge axis from the Atlantic will remain across the region with an East to Southeast steering flow and continued above normal temps with highs around 80F at the Atlantic beaches and well into the 80s over inland areas at near record levels. Breezy East to Southeast winds will develop around 15 mph behind the East Coast sea breeze with gusts to 20-25 mph at times. Lingering moisture aloft with PWATs of 1.25-1.50" across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley may be just enough to trigger a late day and/or evening shower and/or thunderstorm in these areas, but much less activity is expected versus yesterday. Otherwise partly to mostly sunny and warm conditions will dominate the local area.

Tonight: High pressure ridge axis get shunted slightly southward ahead of the approaching cool front pushing across the SE US states which will slowly shift the steering flow towards the SW by morning. Mostly clear skies are still expected after sunset and any far inland isolated convection fades a few hours after sunset. Southeast winds around 10 mph this evening become south and decrease to 5 mph or less by the overnight hours, and while some patchy/areas of fog are expected by the late night hours, the slight uptick in winds towards morning should keep any dense fog localized in nature, so dense fog advisory chances remain low at this time. Low temps will fall into the lower 60s inland, with middle 60s expected along the Atlantic coast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential for both Sunday and Monday

- Near Record Highs Possible Sunday

- Cooler with breezy onshore flow developing Monday

Southwesterly flow develops on Sunday as high pressure pushes further into the Atlantic, bringing warmer temps (widespread 80s) all the way to the coast. More moisture will be available in the low/mid levels Sunday, and therefore chances for showers and t'storms will return as a result. Main areas to watch will be over inland southeast GA with the diurnal heating closer to the approaching frontal boundary, and closer to the I-95 corridor to the coast where the Gulf sea breeze collides with the nearly pinned Atlantic breeze. Upper dynamics are quite lackluster, though a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with gusty downbursts the main hazard as some pockets of dry air linger aloft. A few showers and perhaps an isolated storm linger overnight Sunday Night as the frontal boundary moves through, with veering flow towards the northwest to north throughout the night. Morning lows will be mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s as the front moves through, with high temperatures for Monday in some areas possibly occurring around or just after midnight Sunday Night.

Northeasterly flow strengthens Monday, especially near the coast and across most of northeast FL under mainly cloudy and much cooler conditions compared to the weekend. High pressure ridging will not reach its peak on Monday as the cold front will slow forward progress just south of the region. Therefore, this will result in a breezy flow, but likely not enough for any wind advisory type criteria. Still, sustained winds in the 10-20 range with gusts up to 30 mph will be expected for most by Monday afternoon. Chance to likely PoPs will also be expected across central and southern portions of the area with the slowing front and enough moisture available, though plenty of cloud cover will limit instability and therefore only a few isolated t'storms will be possible. As mentioned above, much cooler highs mainly in the 70s will be expected, though some upper 60s will be possible or areas closer to the coast most exposed to the northeast. Min temps Monday Night will run generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow next week, with elevated winds along the coast and inland locations

Pressure gradient increases for Tuesday as surface ridging strengthens, and a shortwave trough pushing southeast aloft induces surface low pressure well to our southeast. This trend likely continues through most of the week as surface high pressure moves very little through this time frame. The gradient looks to finally start to relax by late week and heading into next weekend, but not before several days of beach/marine hazards as well as windy advisory potential near the coast and parts of northeast FL. Temperatures overall trend below normal for the long term, though starting to rebound closer to normal towards Friday/early next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

VFR conds with gusty E-SE winds this afternoon at 10-12G15-18 knots which will fade around sunset (23-01Z) to 5 knots or so. Fog chances remain highest at VQQ with potential LIFR conds, and likely MVFR VSBYS at GNV towards morning, still mixed signals at the remaining terminals and will just place 6SM BR in for now from 09-14Z. Skies become VFR again late in the period as S-SW winds increase back to 8 to 10 knots in the 15-18Z time frame.

MARINE

Ahead of an approaching cool front, onshore winds will veer southerly across the waters tonight through Sunday. The slowing front will gradually move north to south through the waters Sunday night bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front stalls through Monday. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build to the north resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds Monday night and the onset of a multi-day period of strong onshore winds throughout next week, likely requiring an extended Small Craft Advisory. Much stronger high pressure will wedge along the coast Wednesday resulting in further strengthening and potential for gales and seas building potentially up to 15 feet across the waters. As high pressure breaks away from the eastern seaboard late in the week, onshore winds will begin to relax.

Rip Currents:

Latest buoys and beach reports showing surf/breakers into the 3-5 feet range late this morning and will upgrade both NE FL/SE GA beaches to a high risk through the remainder of the holiday weekend as more folks likely to enter the surf zone due to the near record warmth in place. It is very likely, that surf will become life- threatening next week as strong onshore winds and high surf develops and a high risk of rips will continue as well.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Sunday - Near Critical Min Rh Over Interior Ga Tuesday

High pressure will continue to slowly shift eastward further into the Atlantic today with a southeasterly flow persisting. Slightly drier air at the low/mid levels will limit shower/t'storm potential to very isolated for far inland areas today, with this drier air also resulting in minRH in the 30s across most areas west of about the I-95 corridor. A frontal boundary will approach the area Sunday and move through Sunday Night, which will bring more of a southwest flow except near the coast and the return of shower & t'storm chances, especially over inland GA and near the I-95 corridor to the coast where the best convergence is expected. Areas of high dispersions will be likely across inland southeast GA ahead of the front where the strongest low/mid level winds are expected. Much stronger high pressure builds in from the north for Monday and remains persistent through mid week, returning breezy onshore winds and mostly cloudy conditions with chances for showers the closer to the coast you go. Despite the stronger flow near the surface, the cloudiness and shower chances will lower expected dispersions accordingly for at least Monday, trending upward thereafter towards mid week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog potential each morning this weekend.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Saturday 4/4:

KJAX: 90/2011 KCRG: 88/2012 KGNV: 91/1974 KAMG: 90/1963

Record High Temperatures for Sunday 4/5:

KJAX: 91/2017 KCRG: 91/2017 KGNV: 91/2025 KAMG: 90/2023

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 86 58 75 / 10 40 40 20 SSI 65 81 62 68 / 10 50 50 40 JAX 62 88 62 72 / 0 40 30 50 SGJ 64 86 64 73 / 0 30 40 60 GNV 61 89 62 78 / 0 20 10 60 OCF 62 89 62 81 / 0 30 20 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.