textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Direct Impacts from Tropical Depression #2 Not Expected. Gradual Strengthening is Forecast through Midweek as the depression moves west to norhtwest across the northern Gulf coastline

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms this afternoon. Hazards: Gusty Winds 30-50 mph and localized Flooding due to training activity. Lesser storm coverage is expected Tuesday and Wednesday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today, Possible High Risk Tuesday

- Potential for Small Craft Advisory Conditions Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This afternoon and Tonight:

- Seasonably Hot Summer Conditions

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms with a few strong storms capable of heavy downpours and strong outflow wind gusts

- Brief periods of training thunderstorms may lead to localized flooding in urban areas along the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon.

Breezy southerly flow will be in place across the area today as fringe tropical moisture associated with the current tropical depression in the Gulf overspreads portions of the area, particularly in the Suwannee River valley. Outside of the enhance potential for heavy rainfall given the high-grade moisture, impacts associated with the tropical entity will be minimal.

With the moisture in place, the southerly flow will interact with Gulf sea breeze during the late morning hours, initiating scattered thunderstorms during the early afternoon. The outflow from the first round of convection will generally progress northeastward and merge with the Atlantic sea breeze along the I-95 corridor during the mid afternoon. Steering flow will track pulses northward at a decent clip, around 25 mph, and increase the potential of strong outflow winds up to 50 mph with stronger cores. As mentioned, precipitable water around 2-2.25" will support efficient downpours this afternoon which may lead to localized flooding, especially along the I-95 corridor where some brief training convection may develop bring back- to-back rounds of heavy rain. Convective coverage will decrease with loss of heating this evening and fade completely before midnight as a dry slot lifts into the region.

Another seasonably hot summer day this afternoon. Before convective coverage increases temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s. The humidity will certainly make it feel much hotter with peak heat index around 100-107 degrees this afternoon. Not too confident on the heat build to advisory level, but localized areas along the coast may reach a heat index near 108-110 briefly as moisture pushes in with the sea breeze. Low temps will be more mild than normal given the breezy southerly winds in place which will generally keep lows in the mid and upper 70s, possibly around 80 at the beaches.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- No Significant Impacts from Tropical Depression Two - Bouts of Showers and Storms & Heavy Rainfall, Especially for Western Areas Tuesday - Drier conditions on Wednesday

Showers and storms associated with the outer bands of Tropical Depression 2 (TD2) will drift across the area, mainly along locations west of the I-75 corridor on Tuesday.The influence of the system to the west and high pressure to the east will result in a southerly flow through the period, resulting in the gradient between the two features bringing winds between 10 to 20 mph winds and gusts of 25 to 30 mph along the coast and some locations of north central FL on Tuesday. The highest PoPs currently still remain over the western locations of the area on Tuesday as drier air will sit over the more eastern locations. Wednesday, dry air filters in as ridging builds across the area as TD2 pushes further to the west across the Gulf. Temperatures will rise to the lower 90s, but passing showers and cloud cover could limit temperatures for some locations on Tuesday. With less in the way of showers and cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer compared to Tuesday as highs will rise to the mid to upper 90s, with warmer temperatures across NE FL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms - Potential heat advisory conditions after midweek

An approaching frontal boundary will bring moisture back into the area as the boundary arrives past midweek. This will allow for PoPs to increase across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley region of NE FL during the end of work week and then across the area by the upcoming weekend. As wind flow becomes more southwest to westerly, temperatures will rise slightly above climo. With the increase in moisture, could allow for conditions to reach near heat advisory criteria as we head into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions this morning with only a few cumulus and high clouds at 12z. However, exception is some MVFR cigs possibly around SSI this morning, though it's questionable based on satellite imagery. Should see more cumulus form by mid to late morning with a brief MVFR cig possible. Not much change to the TSRA chances with an increase in chances for GNV first by near 17z, and then develop toward the I-95 terminals during the late afternoon and early evening. For now, will maintain vicinity for SSI due to the deep southeast steering flow keeping most of the convection a little further inland. Otherwise, PROB30 and TEMPO groups are warranted for the other TAFs. Expecting isolated showers and storms still around the area at 00z-01z Tuesday, and then diminishing further after 03z-04z. For sfc winds, light south to southeast winds will increase to 10-15 knots by about 14z-15z, with gusts around 20 knots this afternoon outside of showers and storms.

MARINE

Breezy southerly winds continue across the waters as a tropical depression in the Gulf strengthens into a Tropical Storm later today. The gradient between the tropical system and the Bermuda high will lead to a long duration of breezy south winds to Exercise Caution level today and tonight. There's potential for south winds to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels, or around 20 knots, by Tuesday if the tropical storm continues to gain strength. The prolonged south winds will elevate seas up to 5 or possibly 6 feet through by Tuesday. For the second half of the week, winds will decrease in strength as the tropical storm moves farther west along the northern Gulf coast. While winds decrease, a shift to offshore flow will develop as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest and through the end of the week and then stalls just north of the waters this weekend.

Rip Currents:

Breezy longshore flow will keep breakers around 2-3 feet and result in a solid Moderate Risk of rip currents this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes onshore. Increasing surf Tuesday will elevate breakers to 3-5 feet resulting in High Risk for rip currents for Southeast GA and Northeast FL beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Through Midweek In Se Ga

Southerly winds through midweek as Tropical Depression Two (TD2) shifts westward away from the area. Tropical moisture brought into the area will result in a higher potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with daytime showers or thunderstorms that develop, with the highest chances for locations along and west of the I-75 corridor through Tuesday. Breezier flow will also result in good dispersions for the vast majority of the region through Wednesday, with some areas of high dispersions mainly across SE GA. A cold front will approach the region and stall around Wednesday Night/Thursday, returning higher chances for rainfall after a slight lull on Wednesday.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not expected for the next several nights. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible in and near thunderstorms, with occasional outflow boundaries capable of producing sudden wind shifts well away from ongoing convection. As mentioned above, no significant impacts expected from TD2.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 95 75 93 75 / 40 20 40 0 SSI 93 82 93 81 / 10 10 20 0 JAX 95 78 95 77 / 50 10 40 0 SGJ 93 77 94 77 / 40 10 30 0 GNV 92 75 93 74 / 60 10 40 0 OCF 91 76 93 75 / 70 10 40 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.