textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards This Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Windy today - Wind Gusts of around 35 mph at Coastal NE FL Locations. Gale Warning Portions of Atlantic Coastal Waters Early This Morning. Minor Tidal Flooding in portions of ICWW & St. Johns River Basin through mid week. Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Moderate north to northeast winds continue today with gusts of 25- 35 mph, strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas.

- Coastal & Marine Hazards Continue with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding during high tide

- Below normal temperatures again today

Still below normal temperatures today with moderately strong pressure gradient remaining in place between the high pressure system well to the north and the low pressure system in the western Atlantic. High temperatures will be in the 70s for most areas with partly to occasional mostly cloudy skies for large parts of the area giving way to more clearing in the afternoon and evening as dry air in the 1000-700 mb layer pushes southward over the region. However, still some small chances for showers at about 15-25 percent this morning for parts of St Johns, Flagler, Putnam, and eastern Marion counties through midday day before the drier air moves in. May still be quite a few clouds hanging around for St Johns and Flagler counties into the afternoon hours and partly into the overnight hours. Surface winds will still be up to 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph for the northeast FL coastal areas, with winds inland areas diminishing to about 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph.

Tonight, becoming quite cool under clear skies and lighter north- northeast winds. Forecast minimums, about 7 to 12 deg below normal, show temps dipping to mid to upper 40s for southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley, then to the lower to mid 50s for the rest of the area except for 60 degrees at northeast FL the coastline.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue into mid week with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding.

- Below normal temperatures this period.

With a dry airmass over the area, dry conditions are expected to continue through midweek, but the continuing onshore flow could bring a few light showers along coastal locations. With Low pressure northeast of the area over the western Atlantic and high pressure stretching along the eastern CONUS, breezy to gusty conditions will remain through midweek along the local waters and coastal locations, though not as much as the past weekend. The persistent onshore flow will keep the coastal hazards going across the region, including high rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, and minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast and the St Johns River basin.

Mostly clear and sunny conditions away from the coast will allow for temperatures to warm to the mid 70s on Tuesday, with a bit warmer midweek as temperatures will be from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Along the coast, highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. Overnight Lows will drop into the upper 40s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region, while the rest of NE FL will be in the lower to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected

Cool and dry conditions will continue at the start of the forecast period for much of the area, with chances of showers along coastal locations during the upcoming weekend. Onshore northeasterly flow will also persist as due to low pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast and a high pressure ridge north of the area. The pressure gradient between the two features may begin to tighten on Friday afternoon, which would allow for stronger winds to become reestablish along the local waters and coastal locations through the upcoming weekend. This will keep the coastal hazards going across the region, including high rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, and minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast and the St Johns River basin. Temperatures will continue to be below the seasonal average through the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

MVFR ceilings expected at times for the coastal northeast FL TAFs and for SSI through about 12z-15z today and then scattered and lift to prevailing VFR, and clearing in the afternoon from north to south. However, SGJ could have the occasional MVFR cigs until about 18z-21z. Breezy NNE winds continue early this morning through 12z/13z for CRG, SSI, and SGJ at 12-20 kt while lower winds expected for JAX, VQQ, and GNV at about 8-12 kt. Winds increase again by about 14z, but not as breezy for the terminals as yesterday, but still upwards of 15-20 kt for the coastal TAFs while JAX, VQQ, and GNV will see more in the 10-15 kt range with gusts of 20-25 kt. After 23z/00z, all TAFs will see sfc winds settle more in the 5-10 kt range, though SGJ probably closer to the 8-12 kt range.

MARINE

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern states and a strong low pressure well offshore over the western Atlantic will continue to support hazardous marine conditions across the area waters this week. Near gale force wind gusts and rough seas up 10 to 15 feet will persist today before easing slowly through mid week as the low offshore moves slowly northward. While Gale force conditions are ending early this morning, small craft advisory level conditions will continue into mid to late week.

Rip Currents: Have extended the high risk of rip currents through Wednesday for now given high confidence due to the strong onshore flow we have had and the fact we will see dangerous surf continuing at or above 5 ft Tuesday through Wednesday. Surf heights will be coming down very gradually today with high surf advisory dropped for southeast GA beaches this evening and for northeast FL beaches Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

- Elevated Nighttime Dispersions Along The Coast This Week

Winds will begin to weaken a bit during the upcoming week, but breezy conditions along the coast still expected. Dispersions will also be elevated near the coastline during the upcoming week due to the persistent breezy onshore flow. With a dry airmass overhead, chances for showers remain very low over the next couple of days, with isolated showers possible along the coast. The dry air also will bring lower min RHs for far inland locations, currently expected to remain above critical levels, in the 30% range over SE GA and Suwannee Valley region of NE FL.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Portions of the St. Johns basin from downtown Jacksonville southward, reached minor flood stage with yesterday evening's high tide cycle. Values peaked around 1.4 to 1.8 ft MHHW. For the forecast update, the coastal flood advisory was extended in time and also in area to cover part of Flagler and St Johns coastal areas based on a couple of gauge observations. With the persistent northeast flow leading into mid to late week, it appears probable that the minor flooding in the St Johns River Basin will continue until Friday and possibly into the weekend. Current average tidal departures between astronomical predictions and observations are running between 1-2 ft. Fortunately, we are not at a new or full moon phase at this time. Next moon phase is a full moon on Sunday, Oct 25th.

At least some minor to moderate beach erosion continues around times of high tide at area beaches, where breakers up to 6 to 10 feet are expected into this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 71 46 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 71 55 74 60 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 72 52 73 55 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 73 60 75 63 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 76 52 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 77 54 77 55 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ038-132- 137-138-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for GAZ154- 166. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ452-454-472- 474. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-454-472-474. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ470.