textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Today into This Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions, High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Wind Advisory for Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph at Coastal NE FL Locations Today. Gale Warning for All Atlantic Coastal Waters. Minor Tidal Flooding Possible Along the Atlantic Coast, ICWW & St. Johns River Basin Today through mid week. Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- Moderate to strong north to northeast winds expected with gusts to around 30-45 mph. Strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas.

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and possibly minor tidal flooding during high tide

- Below normal temperatures today

Cool, dry, and breezy conditions continue today as the cold front sits south of the Florida peninsula. There remains a low chance for showers moving onshore this afternoon across Flagler and St Johns counties. High temperatures remain below 70s north of I-10, and in the lower to mid 70s south of I-10 today, with low temperatures tonight dipping into the upper 40s for inland southeast Georgia, 50s and 60s elsewhere. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northeast Florida coast through late this evening, frequent gusts near 35-35 mph are expected in addition to several coastal hazards including dangerous rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion. Breezy northeasterly winds will continue overnight for northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue into mid week with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding.

- Below normal temperatures this period.

A dry airmass will remain over the area keeping dry weather in the forecast at the start of the upcoming week. A tight pressure gradient will persist as high pressure sits over the eastern CONUS and low pressure sits over the western Atlantic, which will bring elevated north-northeasterly wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts around 30 to 35 mph over local waters and along coastal locations. The dry airmass will allow for sunny and clear skies to develop into across the area. Temperatures each afternoon are expected to rise into the 70s, with warmer temperatures on Tuesday afternoon. Overnight Lows will drop into the upper 40s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region, while the rest of NE FL will be in the lower to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Saturday through Tuesday

Dry weather with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue through Friday as drier air along with high pressure ridging situated to the north persists over the region. Chances for for showers are expected to increase for coastal counties in northeast Florida by the weekend as prevailing flow shifts to become more easterly, allowing the diurnal sea breeze to press further inland. High rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, along with minor tidal flooding will carry over through this period as onshore north-northeasterly flow maintains through the forecast period. Temperatures will continue to be below the seasonal average through the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Mainly VFR clouds expected with MVFR ceilings around 3 kft continuing at SGJ and CRG through this afternoon. Surface winds for Sunday will be sustained 15-25KT Gusts 30-35 kt for the coastal TAFs, a bit lower for GNV at about 12-18kt Gusts 25 kt.

MARINE

Strong high pressure will build to the north through tonight with Gale conditions over the waters. An area of low pressure is expected to develop to the northeast of the region today keeping a tight pressure gradient over the region and continuing strong onshore winds and very dangerous seas. The low will remain northeast of the area east of the Carolina coast as high pressure ridging weakens to the north with Small Craft Advisories are likely to persist into next week.

Rip Currents: High Risk of Rips headline out through late Monday night given strong onshore flow and a powerful longshore current. This probably will persist through much of next week. Rough surf is also expected with a high surf advisory remaining in effect.

FIRE WEATHER

Elevated onshore flow continues this afternoon, with winds from 15 to 25 mph and gusts reaching in the 40+ range along coastal locations. Winds will begin to weaken a bit during the upcoming week, but will still bring breezy conditions along the coast. Dispersions will also be elevated near the coastline over the next couple of nights into midweek due to the persistent breezy onshore flow. With a dry airmass overhead, chances for showers remain very low over the next couple of days. The dry air also bring min RHs down into the 30s over SE GA into midweek.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

For Today, Marginal condition for minor tidal flooding along the northeast FL Atlantic coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and throughout the St. Johns River basin beginning this afternoon. Areas on the upper St Johns river basin were fairly close to reaching minor flood stage with this morning's high tide, so potential for a Coastal Flood Advisory for that area will be closely monitored for this evening's high tide (8-10pm). Elevated water levels are likely to continue through at least the middle portion of next week.

The bigger problem may be significant beach erosion likely around times of high tide at the northeast FL beaches beginning today, where breakers will build to the about 7-11 foot range, with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 47 69 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 56 71 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 56 71 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 65 73 59 75 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 56 75 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 59 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-470. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ452-454-472-474.