textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Daily Thunderstorms through Monday, Mainly During the Afternoon and Evening. Isolated daily Strong to Severe Storms possible. Main thunderstorm hazards: Locally Damaging Wind Gusts, Small Hail & Lightning

- Small Craft Advisory likely for area waters Tuesday through. High Rip current risk possible Tuesday

- Exceptional to Extreme Drought continues Wildfire Risk

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon south of the I- 10 corridor. - An isolated Severe Storm possible mainly east of I-95 over northeast FL this afternoon.

The diluted and weakened nearly stationary frontal boundary will be draped across SR-16 this afternoon and become even more ill defined this evening. The remnant boundary will then migrate northward as a warm front during the predawn hours Monday morning as a strong cold front presses into north central Georgia by sunrise.

For today, forcing from mid level waves embedded within west southwest flow aloft, combined with a moist airmass featuring precipitable water values of 1.70 to 1.80 inches, the weakened frontal boundary, and sea breeze convergence near I 95 will trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Isolated convection has already commenced between I-75 and I-95 and will gradually shift toward the I-95 corridor and beaches this afternoon. The strongest convection is anticipated between I-95 and the First Coast beaches, especially south of Ponte Vedra into Flagler County, where the best convergence is expected as the east coast sea breeze pushes toward the ICWW. CAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are expected south of SR 16 toward the Flagler Coast. With localized backing of surface winds associated with the east coast sea breeze, some strong to locally severe storms will be possible this mid to late afternoon, including localized strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. An isolated tornado or waterspout also cannot be ruled out given the potential for a locally enhanced veering wind profile near the aforementioned convergence zone.

For this evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually weaken, with activity becoming more focused over the adjacent northeast Florida maritime waters and near the immediate beaches. Overnight, some slight clearing may allow for patchy fog development. Mild overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s are expected.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Stronger Cold Frontal Passage Likely Monday

Numerous showers and storms will build across the forecast area on Monday with stronger developments expected to develop nearer to the coast along areas of convergence. Scattered convection will continue on into Tuesday as the gradually progressing cold front presses southward over the Florida peninsula. Potential for strong storms on Monday with the main risks being gusty winds, frequent lightning, and possible small hail. Breezy northeasterly winds will develop on Tuesday with speeds reaching up to about 10-15 mph over inland areas and with gusts of about 25 mph. Temperatures will cool noticeably between Monday and Tuesday with daily max temps dropping from out of the mid to upper 80s down into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures for southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida will dip from out of the lower 60s down into the upper 50s with min temps over north central Florida and along the coast remaining in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier Conditions Look to Return Tuesday Night/Wednesday

Potential for showers and isolated storms to develop on Wednesday, building initially along the coast and forming inland as the day progresses with convection occurring primarily over northeast Florida. A secondary dry front will press in from out of the northwest before the end of the week bringing drier weather and clearing skies. Cloud cover is expected to increase with the weekend as high pressure moves off to the east and prevailing flow shifts to become more out of the south. Temperatures will experience a warming trend through the end of the week with temps dropping from above average levels to be below the seasonal average going into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

There will be a good chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon from 18z through 22z, and a TEMPO group has been included for the mid to late afternoon hours at the northeast Florida terminals. There is potential for a few stronger storms along the First Coast, where coastal counties may experience wind gusts up to 40 mph along with frequent lightning.

With the stronger storms, the Duval County terminals and St. Augustine Airport could briefly experience lower ceilings and visibilities in heavy downpours, with short periods of MVFR or IFR conditions possible. High resolution guidance indicates showers and thunderstorms should begin pushing offshore between 23z and 01z. Enhanced TEMPO groups have been included for the Duval County and St. Augustine TAFs this afternoon to account for the stronger convection. Mainly VFR conditions are expected after storms move offshore during the mid to late evening hours. Patchy BR and fog may once again develop overnight with potential of LIFR and IFR clouds.

MARINE

A frontal boundary over north central Florida this afternoon will gradually weaken and dissipate through tonight. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, with isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. A stronger cold front will then push across the local waters Monday evening. Northwest to north winds will strengthen late Monday night in the wake of the frontal passage, with conditions likely reaching Small Craft Advisory levels that may persist into Tuesday night. Weak high pressure will briefly build over the area Wednesday before a dry cold front moves through on Thursday.

Rip Currents:

A low to moderate rip current risk is expected today and Monday, with surf heights generally at or below 2 feet. The risk will be locally higher within a few hours of low tide, especially near sandbars. The next potential for a more widespread moderate to high rip current risk is expected Tuesday and likely Wednesday due to strengthening onshore winds and increasing surf conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Dispersions along the Coast Today - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Monday - Areas Of High Afternoon Dispersions Thursday

Frontal boundary remains across the area today and tonight with light west southwest winds 5-10 mph late this morning pushing the Gulf seabreeze towards highway 301 and Atlantic seabreeze moving to US-17 by mid afternoon. Energy aloft, strong daytime heating, and convergence along the seabreezes/front will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Weak winds and low mixing heights will create low dispersions along the coast today. Another cold front will move southeast across the area Monday into Monday night with more numerous showers and storms as breezy west southwest winds pin the Atlantic seabreeze near I-95 where storms will focus before additional storms later with the incoming front. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm potential through Monday afternoon with main impacts being gusty winds 40-60 mph, frequent lightning, small hail and heavy downpours.

Tuesday, high pressure builds in slowly from the north with breezy northeast winds, but remaining moisture will remain behind the front stalling just southeast of the area with scattered showers south of Waycross and scattered storms along and south of I-10. High pressure will weaken and shift to the east northeast Wednesday with isolated showers and storms developing along the merging Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes over Northeast FL. Dry cold front moves through Thursday, high pressure will build overhead Friday and Saturday. Dispersions will be high Thursday from higher transport winds and mixing heights.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will develop over inland areas tonight and into Monday morning, more likely to occur over areas that experienced locally heavy rain. Gusty and erratic winds expected in and near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 65 87 63 79 / 10 50 40 30 SSI 69 84 68 76 / 20 60 50 30 JAX 68 89 65 79 / 20 60 60 50 SGJ 71 88 69 81 / 20 70 50 50 GNV 68 90 66 85 / 20 30 50 50 OCF 70 90 68 86 / 10 10 30 70

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.