textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible through Late this Evening. Potential Impact Areas: Locations South of I-10 in Northeast & North Central FL. Primary Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, Hail, and Isolated Tornadoes.

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Across Northeast and North Central FL. Additional Rainfall Amounts of 0.5 to 2 Inches Possible through Wednesday.

- Small Craft Advisories for All Local Waters through Tonight. Waterspouts Possible within Stronger Storms Across the Northeast FL Waters.

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Strong to Isolated Severe Storms Possible through Tuesday Evening for Locations South of Interstate 10 in Northeast and North Central FL. Primary Hazards: Damaging Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, Hail and Isolated Tornadoes.

- Beneficial Rainfall through Tonight, Mainly for Northeast and North Central FL. Additional Rainfall Amounts of 0.5" - 2" are Possible, with Localized Totals of 3-5" Possible through Wednesday.

- Small Craft Advisories Extended through Late Tonight and Wednesday for Our Local Atlantic Waters.

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues through Wednesday at All Area Beaches.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts a weak wave of low pressure traversing Apalachee Bay and the northeast Gulf along a slow moving frontal boundary that stretches across north central FL. Meanwhile, high pressure (1025 millibars) was building southward from the Mid- Atlantic states to the coastal Carolinas, with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard. Aloft...a potent shortwave trough was moving eastward across far southern AL, the FL panhandle, and SW GA. Otherwise, another potent shortwave trough that was pushing towards Lake Superior was digging a longwave trough over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Mostly light to occasionally stratiform rainfall prevails across southeast GA, upstream from the approaching shortwave trough, while greater instability closer to the slow moving front was developing embedded downpours and thunderstorms, especially across portions of north central and coastal northeast FL. Temperatures and dewpoints were mostly in the 60s throughout southeast GA at 19Z, with upper 60s to mid 70s for northeast and north central FL.

Rainfall intensity should undergo another uptick late this afternoon through this evening as the potent shortwave trough currently traversing the FL panhandle approaches our region. Rainfall should remain mostly stratiform across southeast GA through tonight, but some elevated thunder cannot be ruled out tonight as temperatures aloft cool with the approach of the shortwave trough. Embedded downpours and thunderstorms will persist through tonight across northeast and north central FL as the front stalls just north of the Interstate 4 corridor. A few strong to possibly severe storms cannot be ruled out for locations south of Interstate 10, with cooling temperatures aloft possibly resulting in pulsing storms that could create localized downburst winds of 40-60 mph, in addition to frequent lightning strikes and possibly some hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out through the evening hours in Marion, Putnam, and Flagler Counties, which are locations closer to the stalling frontal boundary. Overall probabilities for severe weather remain low due to a lack of available instability due to abundant cloud cover and ongoing rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible overnight for locations south of I-10, while amounts north of I-10 will generally range between one quarter and one inch through sunrise on Wednesday. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s for inland southeast GA to around 70 for coastal northeast FL, where gusty onshore winds will be slow to subside overnight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Showers and T'storms Wednesday as northeasterly flow continues and as the Atlantic seabreeze pushes inland.

- Drier conditions return on Thursday behind a dry cold front.

A continuing onshore flow on Wednesday will allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to push onshore, with scattered to numerous showers possible from the coast and towards inland locations as the boundary pushes inland into the afternoon hours. Daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s, with a few cooler spots in the upper 70s. By the evening hours, the approaching frontal boundary will shift winds to become northwesterly by Thursday morning as it pushes through the area. Cooler temperatures will begin to filter into the area with Lows will dipping to the lower 60s to mid 60s.

Thursday, drier air filters in behind the frontal boundary, allowing clear skies to settle in for much of the area. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than Wednesday as daytime highs on rise to the 80s, with lower 80s across SE GA and the upper 80s across NE FL. By the evening hours, Lows will dip down into the mid 50s for SE GA and the upper 50s to lower 60s across NE FL.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

- Dry Conditions late this week into the Weekend.

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend. A period of dry conditions through the weekend and into next week as high pressure settles over the eastern sea board. A persistent onshore flow could bring a few showers/storms along the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes inland, but not expecting the same coverage as earlier in the week. Warmer temperatures are expect this period with near normal temperatures during the end of the week with temperatures in the 80s, with a few locations in the 90s over north central FL. By the weekend, temperatures will rise to above normal as most locations rise above the 90F mark, with coastal locations in the 80s thanks to the onshore flow.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

IFR conditions will prevail through at least 04Z Wednesday at the northeast FL terminals. MVFR conditions at SSI will likely deteriorate to IFR towards 20Z, with IFR conditions then expected to prevail through around 12Z Wednesday. Potentially strong thunderstorms may impact the GNV terminal after 19Z, and a TEMPO group for brief wind gusts up to 30 knots was maintained in the TAF from through around 00Z this evening. Periods of heavier showers are forecast at the rest of the terminals, and a few embedded vicinity thunderstorms will be possible at the Duval County terminals and SGJ through around 15Z Wednesday. PROB30 groups were added at the Duval County terminals on Wednesday morning for potential redevelopment of heavier downpours.Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 10-15 knots at the inland terminals, with sustained speeds at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals in the 15-20 knot range through around 03Z. Frequent gusts of 20-30 knots outside of thunderstorm activity will be possible. Surface speeds will diminish to 5-10 knots at the inland terminals towards 06Z, while speeds at the coastal terminals will subside to around 10 knots towards 09Z Wednesday.

MARINE

A frontal boundary moving slowly southward across the northeast Florida waters will become stationary across central Florida tonight as a weak wave of low pressure currently over the eastern Gulf pushes eastward. Meanwhile, high pressure situated along the Mid- Atlantic coast will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard, with Small Craft Advisory conditions overspreading the waters south of St. Augustine this afternoon. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue across our local waters through Wednesday morning. A few strong to severe storms will be possible across the northeast Florida waters through tonight, with stronger storms being capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, hail, and possibly waterspouts.

The wave of low pressure will push offshore of the east central Florida coast on Wednesday morning, with winds shifting to northerly while gradually decreasing as wrap-around showers and possibly a few thunderstorms continue into Wednesday afternoon. Another high pressure center building over the Great Lakes region will drive a dry frontal boundary southward across our local waters on Thursday morning, with this feature then weakening as it shifts over the southeastern states by Friday. Northwesterly winds in the wake of this dry frontal passage on Thursday morning will shift to northeasterly by Thursday afternoon, with diminishing winds and seas expected on Thursday night and Friday.

Rip Currents:

A high risk has been extended at all area beaches through Wednesday, where gusty onshore winds and building surf heights of 4-6 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 2-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches will persist into Wednesday morning. These surf heights will diminish on Thursday, with a moderate risk anticipated at the northeast FL beaches and possibly a low risk at the southeast GA beaches as surf falls to around 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Dispersions Area-Wide Thursday.

- Near Critically Low Humidity Values During the Afternoon Hours on Thursday and Friday Across Inland Southeast Georgia.

Northeast winds will continue into midweek as high pressure begins to shift away from the area ahead of a dry cold front. With the continuing onshore flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will push in towards inland locations by Wednesday afternoon, with scattered to numerous showers possible along the boundary. Winds shift to become northwesterly the dry cold front Wednesday Night. Drier air will limit any chances of showers or storms through the upcoming weekend. But with the drier air, near critical daytime minRH values will develop on Thursday and Friday afternoons for locations across inland SE GA. Elevated mixing heights will also bring high dispersions area-wide on Thursday afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Gusty and erratic winds expected in and near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 79 61 82 / 50 30 10 0 SSI 68 78 66 85 / 80 70 0 0 JAX 67 80 63 87 / 80 80 0 0 SGJ 70 81 67 87 / 80 60 0 0 GNV 67 83 63 87 / 60 50 10 0 OCF 67 83 65 86 / 50 60 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ452. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ454. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ472-474.