textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Sea Fog NE FL Waters This Morning

- Small Craft Advisory through Monday Morning

- Freeze Warning interior SE GA Tonight Monday Morning

- Freeze with Widespread Frost for interior SE GA Monday night

- Widespread Freeze Thursday night. A few slick spots on area roads

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Showers are ending over the Jax metro as a cold front moves across NE FL this afternoon. The front is driven by a potent mid to upper level shortwave trough over western NC/VA rounding the base of a deep trough extending into the region from Quebec. Flow between a coastal low over the Carolina Outer Banks and strong high pressure over the southern plains is responsible for the incoming drier and colder airmass with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions prevailing over SE GA and the Suwannee Valley the remainder of today while north central FL and the NE FL coast stay mostly cloudy through early afternoon before the drier air arrives and skies turn partly cloudy as the cold front exits the NE FL coast through sunset.

Temperatures holding in the low to mid 60s will begin falling into the 50s late this afternoon with breezy northwest winds due to a tightened local pressure gradient between the high and the low with winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph.

Overnight temperatures will plummet as the high builds into the ArklaMiss region to our west. High cirrus clouds will stream in aloft along high jet stream levels winds, but strong cold air advection will allow lows to fall to below 32 degrees across most of inland SE GA. A Freeze Warning is in effect for late tonight/early Monday morning for inland SE GA west of I-95 except for Echols county. Otherwise lows will fall to the mid 30s over the Suwannee Valley, mid to upper 30s inland of the St Johns river, and low to mid 40s along the St Johns river and NE FL coast.

Elevated winds overnight 10-15 mph inland and 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph along the coast will create wind chills in the upper 20s over SE GA, Suwannee Valley, and I-10 west of Jacksonville with 30s downtown and along the coast. However, these low wind chills are above local cold weather advisory thresholds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Dry weather continues through Tuesday as high pressure over the SE US weakens and shifts southward into the northern Gulf. Cool, dry airmass over the region on Monday gradually warms to around seasonable on Tuesday. Highs on Monday will only reach the low 50s in SE GA to mid 60s in north-central FL. With light winds and clearing skies Monday night, temperatures will tank into the upper 20s across inland SE GA to the mid 40s along the NE FL coast. A Freeze Watch is in effect for inland SE GA Monday night into Tuesday morning with widespread frost possible along and north of the I-10 corridor.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A strong cold front will shift southward through the SE US and into the FL peninsula Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered showers will move through the area ahead of this front with a minimal chance for thunderstorms. High pressure builds in from the north in the wake of the front with sharp cold air advection. At this time, it looks like the precipitation shield moves off before the cooler air filters in, so not concerned about mixed precipitation on the back side of this system. Temperatures will struggle to warm on Thursday with highs only reaching the upper 40s in SE GA to the low 60s in north-central FL. The coldest night of the year so far is on track for Thursday night into Friday morning with temperatures crashing into the low- mid 20s inland to the low 30s along the coast. Lingering winds Thursday night will also lead to wind chills in the low-mid 20s area- wide and potential Cold Weather Advisory conditions for NE FL. The high will settle overhead Friday, then more become centered more toward the northeast Friday night, before moving further away Saturday, as another cold front approaches from the northwest. With flow coming more from the southwest ahead of the front Saturday temperatures gradually warm back to seasonable.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

The 18Z TAF period will begin with mostly VFR conditions except for brief MVFR restrictions due to low ceilings around 1.5 kft at GNV and SGJ as the cold front, clouds, and showers exit south of the area this afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. Breezy northwest winds 12-15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots will persist along the coast this evening as winds shift northerly. Winds will turn north northeasterly on Monday 10-12 knots away from the coast, but stay 12-15 knots with gusts near 20 knots as high pressure builds in from the northwest with mid and high level clouds and marine based stratocumulus clouds approaching SGJ.

MARINE

A cold front will move across the waters today with scattered showers through early afternoon. Northwest winds increase to Small Craft Advisory levels this afternoon as the front exits and high pressure builds in from the northwest. Winds turn north to north northeast tonight with occasional gusts near gale force while high pressure builds northwest of the local waters. Gusty northeasterly winds decrease below advisory levels Monday afternoon into Tuesday as the high settles across the region and a coastal trough over the local waters gradually weakens. Westerly winds increase late Wednesday as the next front approaches with scattered showers. This front is expected to move south of the local waters by early Thursday with a return of Small Craft conditions and potential gusts near gale force into Thursday night.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Today and Moderate Monday NE FL Low Today and High Monday

FIRE WEATHER

-High Dispersions SE GA Today -Areas of low dispersions Tuesday

Light showers ahead of a cold front will move out of northeast Florida this afternoon. Breezy northwesterly winds develop across the area today in the wake of the cold front. This will result in high dispersions today across southeast Georgia. Drier and cooler air builds in behind the front lowering min RHs below 30 for southeast Georgia through Tuesday. Winds begin to lessen by Tuesday, which will bring low dispersions for much of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. A wave of low pressure will move northeast across central FL Wednesday into Thursday bringing another chance for showers to the local area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Freezing temperatures inland Tonight and Monday night, and again Thursday night and Friday night. Inland frost possible Tuesday and Friday mornings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 61 28 53 29 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 64 38 53 39 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 64 36 58 37 / 30 0 0 0 SGJ 66 45 61 45 / 30 0 0 0 GNV 66 37 62 39 / 30 0 0 0 OCF 66 38 64 42 / 30 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>153-163-165-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.