textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Fog Potential each morning through Wednesday.

- The fog may become dense Tonight.

- Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

This afternoon, weak frontal boundary across the central parts of the area with sufficient moisture for plenty of cumulus clouds over northeast FL. Multiple runs of the HRRR and other guidance suggest isolated to potentially scattered showers forming over inland northeast FL along and ahead of the front, with main forcing low level convergence with a weak area of low pres likely forming around Lake City FL. Model sounding showed MLCAPE of about 1000-1200 J/kg this afternoon and recent SPC meso page indicated MLCAPE of 1165 J/kg around Gainesville, Trenton, and Ocala FL. However, given the amount of dry air aloft and relatively weak dynamic forcing, chance of a thunderstorms seems less than about 10 percent. Max temps into the upper 70s to lower 80s today with possible record at CRG where the current record is 83 in 2013. Low level winds turn to the northeast along the coast this afternoon which will likely re-prime portions of the area for moisture and thereby potential fog development later tonight.

For tonight, a few lingering showers over or near north central FL will dissipate by about 10 pm. The front continue to drift south of the area, and high pressure will build to the north. We should see the surface winds decrease from the northeast to 5 mph or less. Skies will be mostly clear, and with the dry air aloft and the light to calm winds, fog potential will increase after midnight. For the inland areas, at least areas of fog are expected through sunrise Monday Morning, with dense fog advisories possible once again. Low temps in the lower 50s across inland SE GA and mid/upper 50s across inland NE FL and lower 60s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure builds over the eastern seaboard of the CONUS at the start of the new week as the frontal boundary from Sunday will be south of the local area. Northeasterly flow develops across coastal locations with around 10 to 15 mph. Along inland locations easterly flow will be present with winds around 5 to 10 mph, with decreasing winds the further away from the east coast. Very low chances of showers across north central FL through the day as dry air continues to filter in from the northwest. Daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, lower temps along coastal locations in the mid 70s. By the overnight hours Lows will dip to the upper 50s across inland locations and the lower 60s along the coast. Some offshore showers may be possible during the overnight hours along the frontal boundary.

By Tuesday, the high pressure to the north will begin to shift towards the Atlantic as another frontal boundary will begin to move towards the SE CONUS, nearing SE GA by the overnight hours. The departing high pressure will bring about a shift in the wind flow from northeasterly to a more southeast-southerly flow and then finally southwesterly by Tuesday night. A bit warmer temperatures on Tuesday as winds shift to become southerly. Daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s over inland locations with upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be similar to Monday night, with upper 50s for inland locations and lower 60s along the coast.

Weakening winds and low level moisture will likely see fog develop over inland locations during the early hours each morning. The developing southwesterly flow Tuesday evening will likely bring the higher chances of fog development over NE FL.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A cold front will approach the area by Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms may develop ahead and along the front as it enters SE GA and towards the FL/GA state line by the afternoon hours into early evening hours. As much of the area will still be in front of the front on Wednesday, daytime highs will primarily be in the lower to mid 80s, with upper 70s along far inland SE GA. Come Thursday and Friday, temperatures will top out in the 60s with cooler temperatures on Friday as a high pressure and a cold, dry air mass builds in behind the front. Breezier conditions develop on Thursday and Friday as northwesterly winds reach around 10 to 15 mph across inland locations and gusts up to 25-30 mph over the local waters. Overnight lows will dip to near freezing across inland SE GA Thursday night, but frost development will likely be limited due to the light breeze over the area. Overnight lows will 'warm' a bit on Friday night, but still remain in the upper 30s along inland SE GA and the 40s along inland NE FL. Winds will begin shift to become northeasterly to easterly by the upcoming weekend as the high pressure shift away towards the Atlantic. Dry conditions will continue into the start of the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions will persist this afternoon and evening. Fog and stratus will develop again Tonight, with restrictions expected. The fog may be slow to lift Monday morning, but VFR conditions should prevail by late morning.

MARINE

A weak frontal boundary will push south across the local waters by tonight. High pressure system will then build north of the region tonight into Monday, resulting in breezy onshore winds. The high builds east of the Atlantic coast Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. The front will press south of the local waters Wednesday night into Thursday, trailed by northwest to north winds near Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria.

Rip Currents: Looking at conditions along the beaches and some surf and webcams reporting, surf looks to be about 1 foot or less so have low risk rest of today. NWPS wave guidance has low probabilities as well. For Monday, Moderate risk for area beaches as the northeast flow and a bit higher surf may be enough to push into moderate category.

FIRE WEATHER

PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 MONDAY AFTERNOON

AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY

CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES RESUME OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON

Cold front will continue to press towards Northeast Florida this afternoon with northwest winds 5-10 mph as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High pressure will be north of the area Monday and shift off the Mid Atlantic coast by Monday evening, leading to the northeasterly winds turning easterly by the afternoon hours. High pressure will exit northeast of the region Tuesday with a warm front lifting north across the area allowing winds to become southerly, but no rain expected. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning and then push through the area late Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and isolated T'storms over Southeast GA, but with swift enough movement to prevent a wetting rainfall. Increasing southwesterly surface and transport winds will produce areas of high daytime dispersions Wednesday.

A much drier airmass arrives for the end of the week as strong high pressure builds in from the northwest that will place critically low Min RH values over the area Thursday and Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Areas of dense fog will develop tonight away from the coast as the cold front slowly shifts south of the area. Patchy fog will remain possible across NE FL both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

SUN 11/23 MON 11/24 TUE 11/25 WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1992 86/2014 85/1992 84/1946 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 83/2013 84/2014 83/1992 83/2020 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 88/1906 86/1948 85/1955 84/1973 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 84/1941 83/1986 83/1986 84/1973

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 52 78 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 74 62 76 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 57 78 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 78 63 81 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 58 82 58 84 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 60 81 59 84 / 20 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.