textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight & Early Saturday Morning. Potential Impact Areas: I-75 & U.S.-301 Corridors & Inland Southeast GA. Areas of Dense Fog Again Possible Late Sat Night & Early Sun Morning

- Near Record Warmth Continues Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Southeast GA & the

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

An area of low stratus over the FL Big Bend will gradually expand into the Suwannee River Valley over the next couple of hours. The stratus deck will settle towards the ground potentially producing areas of dense fog mainly along the I-75 corridor in the pre-dawn hours. Southwest winds quickly increase after sunrise scouring out any remaining fog. High pressure ridging over FL will retreat southward today as a weakening cold front moves through the SE US. Near record highs continue this afternoon with highs in the low 80s area-wide. A few pre-frontal showers may make their way into inland SE GA late this afternoon into evening but confidence is on the low side (POP 15-20%). Accumulations from these stray showers will be minimal and won't bring much relief to the current severe/extreme drought conditions over the area. The cold front will traverse our area tonight into Sunday morning shifting winds to northwesterly in its wake. Fog will be possible again late tonight with the increase in moisture ahead of the front but elevated winds will limit it to patchy coverage. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to low 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Sunday...Frontal boundary pushes south of the area with skies becoming Mostly Sunny and high pressure builds in Northwest of the region. Temps remain above normal with highs around 80F across SE GA and lower 80s across NE FL. NW winds at 10-15 mph early in the day become North to Northeast later in the afternoon and keep Atlantic Coastal areas cooler with highs in the 70s.

Sunday Night...Light NE flow and cooler temps expected as lows fall into the 50s under mostly clear skies. Patchy fog expected across inland NE FL, but significant dense fog not anticipated.

Monday...High pressure builds into the Carolinas and NE flow becomes breezy around 15G25 mph along the Atlantic Coast, which will hold Max temps down into the lower/middle 70s, but flow still too dry to support and isolated shower activity. Still above normal temps over inland areas with highs in the upper 70s for inland SE GA and lower 80s for inland NE FL.

Monday Night...High pressure slides into the Western Atlantic and low level flow becomes light SE, and while some isolated showers will be possible over the Atlantic Coastal waters, expect land areas to remain dry with patchy inland fog expected once again with locally dense fog possible over inland NE FL. Lows in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the Atlantic Coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Tuesday...Near record warmth and dry weather continues in the southerly flow ahead of the next frontal boundary as Max Temps surge back into the lower to middle 80s. Lows only fall to around 60F Tuesday Night with potential for dense fog over inland areas and along the near-shore coastal waters.

Wednesday...Strong cold frontal boundary approaches during the daytime hours and crosses the local area Wednesday Night. One more day with near record warmth and Max temps in the lower/middle 80s, along with low rainfall chances, mainly in the form of scattered showers and isolated storm activity, best chances of rainfall will be across SE GA, with moisture lacking for much rainfall across NE FL as the boundary crosses the region late at night. Low temps falling into the 50s across SE GA, but remain mild in the lower 60s across NE FL with the late night frontal passage.

Thanksgiving Day...Much cooler temps expected as strong high pressure builds in NW of the region and brisk North to Northwest winds hold Max temps in the 60s across SE GA and lower 70s across NE FL. Jet stream mid/high clouds will linger aloft for much of the day and Max temps will likely take place earlier in the day than usual. Elevated North winds around 10 mph will linger Thursday night and continue to funnel in a more chilly air mass as Min Temps fall into the upper 30s across inland SE GA and into the 40s elsewhere.

Friday...Strong high pressure settles just north of the region and continues a chilly North to Northeast and brisk flow across the local area as Max temps fall to slightly below normal values with highs generally in the 60s area-wide under partly sunny skies. Low temps will fall into the mid/upper 30s across inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley with some patchy frost possible, but winds will likely remain too elevated for any widespread frost or freeze. Temps generally falling into the 40s across the rest of the area.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

A low stratus deck currently over the FL Big Bend region will gradually expand east-northeastward into GNV and VQQ after 08Z lowering conditions to IFR/LIFR. Some fog/stratus may reach JAX and CRG but VSBYs will likely remain above MVFR. Fog should lift and dissipate by 13Z. Otherwise, calm winds overnight become WSW 5-10 kts after 15Z.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure ridge will sink south of the area today. A weakening and mostly dry frontal boundary will then push southward through the coastal waters tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure will build eastward on Sunday towards the Mid-Atlantic states by Monday afternoon, with breezy onshore winds developing across our local waters from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. A stronger cold front will then push eastward across the southeastern states on Wednesday into Thursday, with southerly winds expected to develop ahead of this front beginning on Tuesday evening.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents continues today in the offshore flow. A low end moderate risk develops Sunday into Monday with the shift to onshore flow.

DISCUSSION

Breezy southwesterly winds will spread across the entire area today as a mostly dry frontal boundary pushes southeastward into and through the region tonight into Sunday. This will lead to good daytime dispersions area-wide and an increase in low level moisture. Unfortunately, this frontal passage will lack any much needed rainfall for the area suffering from severe/extreme drought conditions. Northeasterly winds behind the front Sunday will trend easterly by Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy to areas of fog are likely this morning. Dense fog will be focused along the I-75 corridor this morning. Patchy inland fog will remain possible across NE FL both Sunday and Monday mornings.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 84/1973 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 81/1997 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 86/1906 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 83/2011

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 59 80 50 78 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 63 76 59 72 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 63 82 57 78 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 64 81 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 63 84 56 82 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 62 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.