textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Numerous Mainly Afternoon & Evening TStorms through Monday. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours Could Result in Localized Flooding. Isolated Storms May be Strong to Severe with Wind Gusts up to 40-60 mph

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights For Tonight:

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening over north central FL

Surface boundary will remain stalled over SE GA tonight. Convergence ahead of this boundary, along with ample moisture, will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms going over north central FL through the night.

SHORT TERM /7 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible

Convective pattern will continue on into Friday with showers and storms becoming more widespread and numerous on Saturday as the frontal boundary situated over southeast Georgia lift off to the northeast and a moist southwesterly flow, ahead of a second frontal boundary pressing in from out of the northwest, develops over the region by the beginning of the weekend. PWAT values will significantly increase after Friday with values measuring upwards of 2.5 inches, resulting in numerous to widespread storms capable of producing heavy rainfall capable of causing localized flooding. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend will rise into the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower to mid 70s. Heat index values for this period will trend down going into Saturday, with the max apparent temperature dropping to be well below heat advisory criteria after Friday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Rounds of Mainly Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible

Active storm pattern will continue through into next week as a weak frontal zone remains just north of the region and an upper level low to the west-northwest continues to feed tropical Gulf moisture across the region. Convective coverage is expected to remain numerous to widespread through the period with a potential heavy rains and stronger storms capable of producing heavy winds forming with this pattern. Temperatures will experience a bit of a heating trend going into next week with max temps rising from out of the upper 80s and lower 90s on Sunday up into the mid 90s by midweek. Heat index values will see a similar trend during this period, with conditions approaching heat advisory levels by midweek.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Line of strong thunderstorms will affect the GNV TAF site early in this period. The potential for a few thunderstorms will then continue there through the night and Friday morning. Coverage of storms will increase Friday afternoon.

Other local TAF sites are expected to have VFR conditions Tonight and Friday morning, with convection during the afternoon Friday. Restrictions in and near afternoon thunderstorms forecast, along with gusty winds.

MARINE

A frontal zone will be located near or over the area through Friday, then to the north through the weekend. This will lead to a prevailing offshore flow through early next week, with the local sea breeze pinned near the coast each day. A few offshore moving thunderstorms may be strong with gale force gusts possible.

Rip Currents: Low to marginal moderate risk of rip currents is expected through the end of the week at NE FL and SE GA beaches with surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet due to the offshore flow and weak swells energy.

FIRE WEATHER

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Rest of the Week

An active pattern will persist today and Friday as a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary just north of the region. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially for areas across northeast FL. Despite stronger flow south of the boundary over northeast FL, better mixing over southeast GA will result in good dispersions over most of the area through Friday. MinRH values may drop below 40% today over far interior GA with some drier air, but expected to remain above any critical thresholds. The pattern looks to remain active this weekend as another frontal boundary and abundant moisture approaches the area Saturday and persists into the start of next week.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. As mentioned above, isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the rest of the week. Gusts up to 40-60 mph will be possible in these storms as well as erratic winds in/nearby any storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 94 73 92 / 10 20 10 80 SSI 77 92 77 90 / 10 30 10 60 JAX 73 93 73 91 / 10 60 40 90 SGJ 74 91 73 89 / 20 50 60 90 GNV 73 91 72 89 / 70 70 70 90 OCF 74 90 74 89 / 80 60 70 80

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.