textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible Wednesday Morning. Locally Dense Fog possible mainly inland areas of NE FL

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Tues through Sun. Heavy Rainfall Potential Wed & Thurs for Northeast & North Central

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches. High Risk likely on Wednesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Isolated Strong Thunderstorms along I-75 and Areas West This Afternoon

- Localized Fog Possible for Inland Areas Early Wednesday Morning

Region remains sandwiched between deep ridging over the southern Appalachians and a low level trough extending northeastward from southern Florida. A breezy onshore flow between those features will continue to focus the highest thunderstorm chances toward the I-75 corridor this afternoon and early evening. The bulk of this afternoon's convective activity will be moving a quick pace to the west, around 15 mph, which will limit the potential for considerable flooding despite the "premium-grade" moisture (precipitable water measured at 2.34" at KJAX this morning). Instead, the primary concerns will be lightning, gusty winds up to 40 mph and low visibility due violent downpours. Most afternoon convection will move off toward the Panhandle and the Big Bend by the evening hours. Today's onshore flow will keep temperatures in the seasonal range this afternoon which is around 90 degrees, with the coastal areas reaching the upper 80s.

Tonight...aside from a few predawn showers advecting off the Atlantic and into the NE FL coast, conditions will be dry. A very saturated low level will another period of low stratus development early Wednesday morning, mainly west of I-95. Where winds decouple completely, localized fog may also develop as stratus surfaces. Amid onshore winds, temperatures will stay warmer at the coast tonight, upper 70s, while inland areas cool toward the low 70s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily shower and thunderstorm potential, with strong storms possible over inland locations

Easterly steering flow will keep highest shower and storm chances closer to inland northeast Florida both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and evenings. A couple stronger storms will be possible each day, mainly again for inland northeast Florida locations, with gusty winds and heavy downpours as the primary concerns. The onshore winds will also bring isolated morning showers on the coast, spreading inland through the day. High PWATs (above 2.0") will persist, posing an isolated flooding risk both days, the Weather Prediction Center has areas south of I-10 highlighted for a Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall Wednesday, and most of the area under it again Thursday. The onshore breeze will keep Atlantic coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s, with inland highs near normal in the lower 90s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong Storms Possible Inland.

Higher moisture continues to move into the area as steering flow shifts to southwest/westerly Friday through the weekend, prompting numerous showers and storms, especially for north central Florida. A cold front will also approach from the north late this weekend, and move through the area early next week, keeping higher storm chances each day. Overall, high temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s, warmer temperatures generally inland.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Showers and storms are generally already west of I-95, with the best chance for thunderstorm impacts being at GNV and VQQ this afternoon, where TEMPOs are in place. Occasional MVFR ceilings have been present today, and that will continue this afternoon. Tonight, patchy fog is possible at GNV, and early morning showers will likely impact at least SGJ.

MARINE

Onshore flow and troughing over the waters will keep the potential for waves of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Friday. Winds transition and shift westerly by Saturday Night into Sunday as a frontal boundary enters the southeast states. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible during the upcoming weekend and into next week under the frontal boundary's influence.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents are expected today with surf in around 2-3 ft. A stronger long-period swell and surf climbing to 3-4 ft is likely to result in a High Risk of rip currents at the NE FL and SE GA beaches Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Onshore flow continues through midweek bringing early morning showers across coastal locations, and then towards inland locations as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. By the afternoon hours, amplified showers and thunderstorms will be possible with diurnal heating. With weaker winds aloft, dispersions will continue to generally be in the poor to fair range much of the week. But with moisture continuing to be brought in from the Atlantic, this will help maintain Good min RH values across the area.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near thunderstorms with briefly localized flooding rainfall. Late night and early morning patchy fog and low stratus will be possible, especially in areas that received more rainfall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 92 72 91 73 / 20 10 30 0 SSI 87 78 87 78 / 40 20 30 20 JAX 89 75 88 74 / 40 20 50 20 SGJ 87 75 87 75 / 50 30 70 20 GNV 90 73 88 73 / 60 20 70 20 OCF 90 73 89 73 / 80 30 70 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.