textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues

- Patchy Fog Inland Thursday Morning

- Cold Front Expected Late in the Weekend. Isolated Thunderstorms & Windy Conditions Possible

UPDATE

Slight adjustments made to the forecast this morning, including minor changes to the precipitation chances throughout the day, as well as an increase in forecast wind speeds based on current observations. Despite heavy cloud cover, it will be warm today with highs in the 70s areawide with west/southwest winds ahead of the incoming front. Thunder chances remain very low, but an isolated storm north of Waycross, GA later this afternoon cannot be ruled out.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Lingering very dry air in the low levels with dewpoints around 30F over NE FL are gradually rising as recovering as WSW flow between high pressure ridge axis over south FL/northern Bahamas and a cold front to the northwest currently over the TN valley. High thin cirrus and cirrostratus clouds downstream of this feature have arrived over our area and expect cloud deck to lower to the mid levels over SE GA as showers are moving across SW GA towards towards sunrise with showers currently moving through SW GA expected to move into the SE GA during the pre-dawn hours, then the SE GA coast just after sunrise. Temperatures early this morning range from the upper 40s over north central FL to mid/upper 50s along/north of I-10 and these readings will only cool a few more degrees due to increasing clouds. Patchy fog is possible over the Suwannee river valley by sunrise as low level moisture feeds in from the Gulf coast, but enough WSW winds 4-8 mph should prevent dense fog.

Today, shortwave energy passing along the southern periphery of mid/upper trough digging southeast from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states will produce an initial wave of scattered to numerous showers shifting east through SE GA with coverage more limited along/south of I-10. The waves of showers will move off the coast by mid afternoon with partial clearing ahead of the cold front moving into the area from the northwest early this evening. Isolated T'storms potentially north of US-82 where weak instability may allow for a T'storm or two to form along the cold front's boundary before sunset, but latest trends in high resolution models appear to dampen this potential. Southwest winds will be breezy 10-15 mph today with gusts to 25 mph.

High today will be overall a few degrees less due to the mostly cloudy skies rising into the mid/upper 70s inland and the low 70s along the coast.

Tonight, the cold front will push through the area with a final broken line of showers moving ESE into I-10 10pm to midnight and then diminishing to isolated showers after midnight off the NE FL coast. Winds turn westerly by midnight over NE FL and northwesterly across SE GA, then northwest to northerly late tonight. Clouds will remain across NE FL with partial clearing north of I-10 as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes and OH valley. There is potential for areas of fog to develop along I-75/Suwannee Valley late tonight ahead of the cold front before exits into central FL by sunrise.

Lows will fall into the mid/upper 40s over SE GA from cool air advection and partial clearing with low/mid 50s for NE FL due to mostly cloudy skies and the later exiting of the front.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Cold front will settle just south of the region on Thursday, with a northwest flow rather quickly shifting towards the northeast throughout the day and into Thursday Night as high pressure shifts from northwest to north of the region and a weak coastal trough lingers in its wake. With a more northeasterly flow and the boundary not being as progressive, the cool down behind the front will mostly be felt closer to the coast, St. Johns River Basin, and far interior GA where high temps will be in the 60s. Further inland, readings in the low to mid 70s will be more common. A couple isolated showers also cannot be ruled out over far southern areas with the daytime heating this afternoon and evening closer to the front and coastal trough, mainly over Marion County and southern Putnam/Flagler Counties. Clear to partly cloudy north and west Thursday Night with more cloud cover south and east thanks to the lingering coastal trough, with lows in the upper 30s it low 40s north/west and mid 40s to near 50 south/east. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out over coastal northeast FL as well, especially towards Friday Morning.

A pretty similar setup is expected once again for Friday and Friday Night as the associated high pressure slowly drifts from near the Ohio River Valley to off the coast of the Carolinas. Model guidance is in good agreement that the frontal boundary and therefore coastal trough will nudge a bit further north and west thanks to the repositioning of high pressure ridging, which will also migrate chances for showers up the coastline accordingly through Friday and Friday Night as well as over inland northeast FL Friday afternoon and evening. High temps will nudge up accordingly area wide, with low to mid 70s more common inland and 60s confined to a smaller area north and east. Min temps bottom out in the 40s to low 50s inland and low to mid 50s by the coast & St. Johns River Basin.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Surface high pressure will continue to slowly move further east of the region on Saturday as the above mentioned coastal trough and frontal boundary over the region will lift northward as a warm front Saturday and Saturday Night. This will occur ahead of surface low pressure, an accompanying cold front, and a rather dynamic upper low diving into the southeastern states on Sunday and moving across our region Sunday Night and Monday. Though the timing and location of the Low's path (Euro more north, GFS more South) is still rather uncertain, guidance is still starting to converge a little bit on a more progressive solution, with widespread showers moving in on Sunday as the associated cold front nears the local area, then lingering showers on Monday as the front pushes out offshore. Depending on the exact timing, thunderstorm potential is certainly in play for Sunday and into Sunday Night as well, though the potential for strong/severe remains in question at this time. Regardless, confidence is high that a beneficial rainfall will impact the region late this weekend and into early next week. High pressure builds into the region behind the system Monday and into Tuesday. Given the uncertainty mentioned above with the low pressure system, the extent of cold air advection behind the system is also quite uncertain as well.

Overall, temps trend near to above normal for the weekend, likely falling closer to or slightly below climo for the start of the next work week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

After 13Z light steady showers will shift through SSI until 18Z with less coverage of light showers shifting across the Northeast FL TAF sites. Southwest winds will increase to 10-12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots until late afternoon. Partial clearing expected after 20- 22Z as a lull in showers occurs before the cold front boundary slides southeastward through SSI 03-06Z with showers moving through again with winds becoming westerly and diminishing to 6-8 knots. Chances for a thunderstorm too low to include at SSI with the cold front late this afternoon, but will monitor for changes. Potential fog development ahead of the arriving cold front at GNV after the end of the period as west to southwest flow brings in moisture from the Gulf.

MARINE

High pressure will shift southeast of the region today as a cold front approaches from the northwest with isolated to scattered showers and increasing west to southwest winds to exercise caution levels over the offshore waters. The front will move through the waters this evening with a line of showers pushing through the Georgia waters with less showers over the Northeast Florida waters and winds shifting northwesterly and then northerly after midnight. The front will stall and linger over south Florida Thursday with northeast winds over local waters as high pressure builds north of the region. The front will morph into a lifting warm front late Friday into Saturday as the high weakens and shifts more to the northeast of the waters. Rain chances increase this weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west late Saturday into Sunday with winds increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today as easterly swells persist with periods of up to 11-13 seconds producing surf/breakers into the 3-4 ft range at local beaches. Easterly swells will diminish Thursday, but a moderate risk of rip currents expected due to breezy onshore north northeast winds.

FIRE WEATHER

-PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS TODAY

West-southwesterly flow continues today ahead of an approaching cold front, which will result in good dispersions for most as well as some patchy high dispersions. This flow will also keep RH values much higher than earlier in the week. Multiple "waves" of showers will move across interior GA beginning early this morning and continuing through tonight ahead of an approaching front, with some isolated showers also possibly making it into parts of northeast FL this afternoon and evening as well. Accumulations will be light, however. The cold front passes through the area tonight into Thursday with a northwesterly flow developing but quickly shifting towards the northeast on Thursday. Drier conditions return Thursday behind the cold front, with RH values in the 20s once again across southeast Georgia and the 30s across the Suwannee Valley Region in northeast Florida along with fair dispersions.

High pressure will then influence the area while remaining north of the region through the end of the week before another stronger cold front approaches late this weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible near I- 75 this morning, with localized denser fog occurring in proximity with wildfire smoke. Patchy fog will also be expected over inland areas late tonight and early Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 77 45 67 38 / 60 30 0 0 SSI 70 50 59 47 / 60 60 0 10 JAX 76 52 67 45 / 50 30 0 10 SGJ 74 55 66 50 / 20 20 10 10 GNV 76 55 75 46 / 10 20 10 10 OCF 75 55 75 48 / 10 10 20 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.