textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Localized Dense Fog this morning for Suwannee Valley and areas

- Patchy, Dense Fog Possible Sunday Morning

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Next Week. Severe to Extreme Drought over Inland Southeast GA and the Northern. Likely to Expand in Coverage Next Week

UPDATE

Issued at 838 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Fog which developed overnight primarily inland long/north of I-10 has lifted at this hour and a generally sunny day is expected for our start to the weekend. A few high thin clouds may pass through SE GA this afternoon, but dry conditions under weak high pressure and rising 500mb heights over the area should help boost highs a few more degrees compared to Friday nearing 80 degrees over inland NE FL, upper 70s over inland SE GA, and mid 70s along the coast.

Tonight, high pressure will sink southward along the FL peninsula and clockwise flow will bring west to southwest winds overnight, elevating slightly from around 5 mph to 8-12 mph after midnight as a cold front begins to approach the area from the north. Lows will be near normal around 50F inland and the mid 50s at the coast. The southwesterly flow and clear skies will help develop a mixture of radiational and advection areas of fog well after midnight, though increasing winds will help keep fog from becoming dense.

NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)

The main weather concern today will be the fog formation over the next few hours as a surface ridge slides overhead. Before midnight, shallow radiation fog had already begun to materialize. While widespread dense fog isn't anticipated broad areas of dense fog and limited visibility will be possible across NE FL and portions of SE GA this morning. Given the dry conditions, there has been an increase in small brush fires in the area. Near these fires, enhanced fog potential and possible a very dense "superfog" formation is possible this morning. This may require targeted Dense Fog Advisories if development occurs in the vicinity of any reported brush fires.

Calm and very light near-surface winds will allow fog to stay intact longer this morning. All fog should lift by 9 AM. After the fog lifts, sunny skies will warm temps into the upper 70s this afternoon.

Little change in the regional pattern, though there will be an increasing southwesterly flow late tonight which may act to advect Gulf moisture into the Suwannee Valley and spread east toward Jacksonville overnight. This may lead to an advective fog event, with a chance of locally dense fog again early Sunday morning as temperatures fall to the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday and Monday)

Sunday will be another warm day with breezy westerly winds ahead of an incoming weak, dry cold front from the north, with highs in the upper 70s. The front will stall over the area for most of Sunday night, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s north of Waycross and near 60 on the northeast Florida coast. Patchy fog will be possible mainly over north central Florida early Monday morning, but the frontal position will play into that as well. Monday will be a few degrees cooler than the rest of the week area-wide with calmer winds after the front passes through.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday)

High pressure will build overhead Tuesday and Wednesday following the frontal passage early in the week leaving calm winds, clear skies, and above normal temperatures. Southeast winds will increase Thursday and Friday, bringing in some more moisture and clouds. High temperatures each day will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, generally cooler near the Atlantic coast. With no precipitation in the forecast at this time, expect drought conditions to persist, if not worsen. However, looking ahead just past this period, a stronger front may bring some showers Friday night into next weekend, but there remains a lot of uncertainty for day 8.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 652 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

The 12Z TAF period begins with areas of MVFR/IFR fog/ceilings at inland portions of Northeast FL and Southeast GA locally down to LIFR levels at VQQ through 13Z. The fog and low ceilings will lift by 14Z and VFR conditions will prevail for most of the period under sunny skies with perhaps a few high thin clouds at times as weakening high pressure remains over the region. Winds will be near calm through 14Z, then light and variable through late morning to midday before increasing to around 5 knots from the west with weak seabreeze turning winds southerly at the coastal sites late this afternoon/early evening, then resuming west to southwest increasing overnight 5-8 knots as the high pressure settles south of the area. Inland patchy MVFR fog will develop late tonight at GNV after 09Z where winds will stay under 5 knots.

MARINE

High pressure pattern will hold through today with offshore winds increasing between the high and an approaching cold front that weaken considerably as it approaches and likely stalls across the waters early next week. Light winds and fair maritime conditions continue through Thursday under the influence of high pressure. Onshore flow with a backdoor cold front will commence Thursday with a coastal trough developing Friday as winds begin to shift southerly ahead of an approaching cold front.

RIP CURRENTS: Low surf and light winds will lead to a low rip current risk through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions continue today, especially for inland southeast Georgia where minRH will fall to 25-30%. Moisture will improve RH Sunday briefly as a front approaches, but higher transport winds will result in areas of high dispersion on Sunday for inland locations. Critically low minRH values return north of I-10 on Monday for inland locations with calmer winds than Sunday keeping dispersion good. Moisture will gradually improve through the week keeping minRH above concerning values, although no precipitation is in the forecast this week, likely further worsening drought conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 78 50 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 74 55 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 79 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 77 54 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 80 51 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 79 51 78 57 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. AM...None.