textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Dense Possible Each Morning Through Saturday

- Thunderstorm Potential Increases Friday for SE GA. Marginal Severe T-Storm Risk Saturday SE GA, Isolated Storms

- Extreme Drought Prevails Across Most of the Region. Red Flag Conditions Possible Monday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches with Small Craft Advisory Conditions Sunday through Monday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main hazards this period: Another round of dense fog expected tonight, mainly for NE FL, coastal SE GA and Atlantic waters.

This afternoon: Breezy SW steering flow will continue to scour out the remaining low clouds early this afternoon and expect partly to mostly sunny conditions to break out with highs at least in the lower 80s over inland areas, with a few middle 80s possible across inland NE FL, only slightly cooler in the mid/upper 70s at the Atlantic beaches as breezy SW winds sustained around 15 mph with gusts to 20-30 mph push the milder flow all the way to the Atlantic coast. Some isolated showers continue in the increased moisture from the FL/GA border northward across SE GA, but overall rainfall chances remain generally only in the 20-30% range.

Tonight: SW winds weaken after sunset to 5-10 mph this evening and expect the moist SW flow off the NE Gulf to allow for another round of low stratus clouds and fog to develop by the late evening hours and advect across the entire local area. The pressure gradient is a little stronger across inland SE GA closer to the incoming frontal boundary, so expecting mostly just light fog along with the low stratus development there, while SW winds falling to 5 mph or less across NE FL will allow for both low stratus and dense fog development through the overnight hours and expecting potential for dense fog advisory in some spots, but mainly along the I-95 and US 301 corridors. Sea fog development is expected late at night as well as dew point temps in the 60s will be much warmer than the ocean temps in the 50s along the near shore Atlantic waters and Marine Dense Fog Advisories may be required as well towards morning. Low temps will remain well above normal only falling into the lower 60s, and possibly only the middle 60s across inland SE GA due to the elevated SW winds during the overnight hours.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Southwest steering flow ahead of an incoming cold front will increase moisture across the area on Friday and Saturday. Showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be present over southeast Georgia Friday. Shower coverage will expand southward through the day Saturday and by the afternoon, thunderstorm potential increases with the aid of ample moisture and decent CAPE, especially over inland southeast Georgia. Severity of thunderstorms will heavily depend on timing of the front, with a faster moving front convection will spark up with enough time for strong to isolated severe storms to develop. A slower front, moving in later in the night will result in less favorable dynamics for strong to severe storms. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely linger through the night.

Temperatures will be well above normal Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 80s everywhere except the immediate southeast Georgia coast which will be a few degrees cooler. Inland fog is likely Saturday morning, especially near the I-75 corridor.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The cold front will be south of the forecast area Sunday, leaving cooler temperatures compared to Friday and Saturday, with showers lingering through the morning to early afternoon. Behind the front, winds will shift to northeasterly, bringing in much cooler and drier air to start the work week. Sunday night, temperatures will drop into the mid 30s for inland southeast Georgia, but winds will likely be too high for widespread frost development. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will stay in the 50s, with Monday night and Tuesday night seeing freezing temperatures over inland locations. Wind chills will dip into the 20s early Tuesday morning, potentially prompting a Cold Weather Advisory for portions of northeast Florida.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

A few MVFR CIGS will linger early in the period, otherwise VFR conds developing with gusty SW winds at 10-13 knots with gusts to 15-20 knots through the afternoon hours. Winds diminish to around 5 knots tonight, then still expect another round of LIFR CIGS to develop area-wide with LIFR VSBYS at GNV/VQQ and at least IFR VSBYS elsewhere. Timing still expected to be in the 03-05Z time frame at GNV and 05-07Z time frame elsewhere and will linger once again in the 14-16Z time frame before MVFR/VFR conds develop at the end of the current 18Z TAF period. SW winds will increase to 12-14 knots with gusts around 20 knots by the end of the TAF period as well.

MARINE

High pressure east of the Florida Peninsula will continue to extend a ridge axis westward across area waters through Saturday. Patchy dense sea fog is also expected during the late night and morning hours through Saturday. Shower and isolated thunderstorm potential will increase Saturday Night through Sunday Morning as the front moves through, with a breezy northwest flow developing behind the front as well as likely Small Craft Advisory conditions. High pressure north and west of the region will then be the main weather feature early next week, slowly moving almost directly over the area by mid week.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk will be moderate through Friday at area beaches thanks to breezy offshore flow and some remnant long period swells. Surf/breakers of 2-4 ft today will trend downward to 2-3 ft on Friday and around 2 feet this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Friday And Saturday - Min Rh At Critical Levels Monday And Tuesday

Prevailing southwesterly flow expected through Saturday as high pressure ridge remains south of the area, with a cold front entering the area by Saturday night. Breezy southwest winds around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph will lead to areas of high dispersion on Friday, and widespread high dispersion likely Saturday and possibly on Sunday. Moisture will increase ahead of the front the next couple of days with a chance of showers mainly across southeast GA and around the I-10 corridor. Higher chances showers most areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, with a few thunderstorms also possible. The cold front moves south of the area Sunday leading to a much colder and drier airmass going into early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of Fog are possible tonight and Friday night with locally dense fog likely at times.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures possible today into the weekend.

Thu, February 19: KJAX: 86/1891 KCRG: 85/1975 KGNV: 88/1924 KAMG: 82/2018

Fri, February 20: KJAX: 86/1961 KCRG: 83/2014 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014

Sat, February 21: KJAX: 86/2019 KCRG: 84/2019 KGNV: 89/2019 KAMG: 87/2018

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 63 82 65 82 / 10 60 40 70 SSI 61 77 61 76 / 10 30 30 40 JAX 62 84 63 85 / 0 10 10 20 SGJ 61 82 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 61 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.