textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Continue this Week. Dangerous Surf Zone and High Risk for Rip Currents. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Within Portions of the St. Johns River Basin and along the coast south of St Augustine.

- Strong Northeasterly Winds Develop Friday Night Along the I-95 Corridor. Moderate Tidal and Coastal Flooding Likely During the Upcoming Weekend. Gale Conditions Possible for the Local Atlantic Waters. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions with a High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches

- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible this Weekend for Coastal Northeast FL

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards Continue with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding during high tide

- Lows in the 40s over inland SE GA/inland North FL again this morning

Low level northeast flow continues in place through tonight while the dry airmass with PWAT of near or less than 0.5 inches continues. The expansive high pressure system located from the eastern Great southwest with ridge axis to the lower MS valley will weaken a bit while the low pressure system well offshore of the NC outer banks moves northeastward. This will cause the low level flow to turn slightly from northeasterly to more northerly. Wind speeds from the northeast about 10-15 mph coast and 5-10 mph inland for today. Overall clear skies with just a few-scattered low clouds today for St Johns and Flagler counties as stratocu moves off the Atlantic. These clouds are due in part to the broad low level trough forming offshore which will be short-lived.

Min temps this morning below normal by about 5-10 deg with 40s and 50s expected. Highs today will be nice once again in the mid to upper 70s, but around 80 degrees inland north central FL. Lows tonight similar to Wed morning with lows in the upper 40s from Suwannee Valley northward into southeast GA. Then, mostly in the lower to mid 50s elsewhere.

Main hazards in the near term will continue to be coastal in nature with a high risk of rip currents, rough surf and minor tidal flooding along the St. Johns River Basin.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal flooding expected due to onshore flow, along with continued high risk for rip currents

Predominantly cool and dry conditions will continue into Friday with chances for showers increasing for coastal areas overnight Friday and on into Saturday. Onshore flow will build for the forecast area during this period between strengthening high pressure to the north and northeast and low pressure to the south. High temperatures for the end of the week will be in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower 50s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 50s for northeast Florida, and in the lower to mid 60s for areas along the coast and near the St Johns River.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Strong onshore flow will lead to coastal flooding, beach hazards such as rip currents and high surf, and gusty onshore winds

Abundant onshore flow will persist through the weekend and into the beginning of next week with increased chances for showers with a potential for thunderstorms as weak inverted troughs develop with the onshore pattern. As a result of the strong onshore flow, a myriad of coastal hazards can be expected this weekend including a high rip current risks, high surf, coastal flooding and gusty overland winds possibly reaching wind advisory criteria. Temperatures will continue to be below the seasonal average through the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions prevail through the 06Z TAF period with SKC for most part. Some small chance for a brief MVFR cig for SGJ from 14z-18z as lower stratocu clouds stream in off the Atlantic, and for now just showing SCT deck. Winds will be light through the morning hours but a northerly 7-10 kt wind for SGJ. Winds will increase again after 14z with winds of about 8-12 kt with a few gusts near 15-20 kt today. Winds will relax after 23z.

MARINE

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern states and a strong low pressure well offshore over the western Atlantic will continue to support hazardous marine conditions across the area waters this week. Rough seas will continue to slowly diminish through early Friday morning. However, small craft advisory level conditions will continue into mid to late week especially for offshore waters. Another surge of Northeast winds to Gale force is expected to develop late Friday and continue into this weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continues much of this week and weekend given the elevated surf conditions and onshore flow. Though the high surf advisory is dropped over the area beaches, elevated surf will continue to be a problem the next few days for any swimmer entering the surf zone. Looking ahead, high surf advisory looks probable again for the weekend as northeast flow increases.

FIRE WEATHER

- Inland Se Ga Rh Falling Below 30 Percent Today - Patchy High Dispersions Ne Fl Today - Patchy High Dispersions Se Ga And Ne Fl Friday - High Coastal Dispersions Over The Weekend

Onshore flow pattern will continue through the next week. This flow pattern will strengthen over the weekend. Chances for mainly coastal showers will also increase this weekend. With a weaker onshore flow the next few days, drier air will be able to filter into inland areas, where afternoon RH values will fall into the upper 20s.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected the next few days.

HYDROLOGY

The Satilla River at Atkinson looks to have peaked just above 14 ft and is forecast to fall slowly toward 13.3 ft late this weekend. Thus, Minor Flooding will continue along portions of the lower Satilla River Basin.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Recent observations show minor flooding only occurring from Downtown Jacksonville upstream to Satsuma. These levels are about 1.5 to 1.8 ft MHHW, solidly in minor flooding. Since winds are not going to be strong for today, at this time, will cancel the coastal flood advisory for eastern Duval to the coast and also for the northeast St Johns county coast. The rest of the advisory will be continued. Water levels may begin to rise a bit but very gradually late today and into Thursday which may lead to the advisory being expanded in area again but it will barely meet or be shy of advisory criteria.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another surge of northeast winds and the full moon on Sunday/Monday Oct 25-26 will push water levels up further, especially for the coast. Confidence is growing for moderate tidal flooding and coastal flood watches/warnings may be needed.

At the beaches, minor beach erosion will continue the next couple of days especially at times of high tide due to the rough surf. As the astronomical tides increase later this week and over the weekend, the combination of the increased surf and water levels will lead to higher beach erosion potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 78 47 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 74 56 74 59 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 77 51 76 54 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 78 58 75 62 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 81 51 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 80 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-132- 137-138-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ472-474.