textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches through Thursday

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon TStorms through Friday

- Heat and Humidity Builds this Weekend and Early Next Week. Heat Index Values Rise to the 100-105 Range Each Afternoon

- Afternoon and Evening TStorm Coverage Increases this Weekend. Strong Storms with Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning Strikes and Heavy Downpours Possible Along the I-95 Corridor

- Drought Conditions Persist Across Our Region

NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered showers and storms along the I-75 corridor late this afternoon. Heavy rain and lightning are the main threats.

- Moderate rip current risk continues at all area beaches as breezy onshore winds develop this afternoon.

Atlantic high pressure ridge across southern GA will dominate the region through tonight with prevailing low level flow from the east and southeast. Aloft, area is in a col with high pressure cells at about 500 mb over AL and another one about 200-250 miles east of NC. PWATs from satellite imagery this aftn show about 1.9 inches, and so about 125 percent of normal. MLCAPE from mesoanalysis inland areas shows values range from about 1400-1800 J/kg, weak shear, and DCAPE of about 500 J/kg so not a good setup for strong or severe storms. Rest of the afternoon will see scattered showers and t-storms mainly inland areas and favored for inland northeast FL where the easterly flow meets up with west coast sea breeze boundary/zone. This activity will continue through about 8 or 9 pm and then fade overnight with skies tending to become partly cloudy to mostly clear. Main threats are heavy rainfall and lightning. Some patchy fog and low stratus possible toward early morning, but fog chances look very low at this time.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat Index Back into the Triple Digits to end the work week

- Isolated to Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms

- Moderate Risk for Rip Currents

Temperatures continue to rise to finish out the work week, with highs in the 90s area-wide Friday and maximum heat indices approaching 100-105 degrees in the afternoon. Mild overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 70s are expected.

Overall, isolated to scattered storms are forecast closer to I-75 Thursday afternoon and evening with the help of weak southerly surface winds. By Friday, winds begin to shift to southwesterly, moving the higher storm chances closer to I-95 but chances remain in the 20-40% range. Strong, isolated thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out, with the primary threat being isolated lightning and spotty, brief downpours.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dangerous Heat for Sensitive Groups This Weekend

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Along the Coastal Counties This Weekend

Southwesterly surface winds coupled with a stalled front to our north will result in increased rain and thunderstorm chances this weekend through early next week. Overall, precipitation chances range from 40-70%, with most activity in the afternoons and evenings. The southwesterly winds will allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to stay fairly close to the east coast, keeping the higher storm chances closer to I-95, especially on Sunday. Forecast rainfall totals are not super impressive, but there may be localized flooding over saturated areas depending on where the heaviest storms set up.

The main concern during this period will be dangerous heat, with high temperatures soaring into the lower to upper 90s this weekend, even near the immediate east coast. The hottest day will be Saturday, where maximum afternoon heat indices will approach 100- 108 degrees, so a Heat Advisory may need to be considered for some locations. High temperatures remain in the lower to mid 90s Monday and Tuesday, with the higher precipitation chances over southeast Georgia. Very mild low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s expected.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Scattered shower and a few thunderstorms continue this afternoon and have shifted inland as anticipated, moving away from the coastal TAFs. Have VC convection for these TAFs but a TEMPO MVFR TSRA group for GNV. Activity will fade gradually this evening and dissipate. Mainly VFR conditions tonight and for Thursday, with some mist for VQQ as usual from 05z to 12z. Sfc winds will be east to southeast about 5-10 kt rest of the aftn, and becoming light overnight, and southerly 5-10 kt for Thursday.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will extend its axis across our local waters through tonight and begin to shift southward and weaken on Thursday and Friday. Breezy onshore winds expected over the near shore waters this afternoon and again on Thursday and Friday afternoons as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Weak troughing will then develop this weekend over the southeastern states, shifting prevailing winds to southwest. This shift in the weather pattern will bring scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to at least the near shore waters through early next week. Southerly evening wind surges may increase speeds to near Caution levels during the evening hours this weekend and early next week.

Rip Currents: A combination of sea breeze winds, small wind- sea swells, and wind waves continue to support a low-end moderate risk rest of today. Similar pattern likely persists Thursday, keeping the lower-end moderate risk in place at area beaches. The northeasterly swell will then fade towards Friday, which could lower the risk at the southeast GA beaches, while a lower end moderate risk likely continues each afternoon at the northeast FL beaches, where breezy onshore winds will develop following the inland movement of the Atlantic sea breeze.

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure will be in a position to favor the Atlantic sea breeze through Thursday. Expect accompanying sea breeze wind speeds to be in the 8-12 mph range, or around 5-9 at eye level. Temperatures will continue to heat up this week with mid 90s likely this weekend while lowest afternoon humidity be similar to the last few days around 40- 45%. Anticipate the return of more regular bouts of scattered afternoon thunderstorms late this week and numerous thunderstorms this weekend as deeper moisture moves into the region. Though fine fuels have dried to critical levels during the recent dry stretch, there is no glaring potential of concerning fire weather alignment. Breezy southwesterly winds will and elevated dispersion will develop next week ahead of an front that is expected to stall across central GA.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog is possible but significant fog development is not expected.

CLIMATE

The return of summertime heat later this week and over the weekend will lead to near record temperatures. Less likely to see readings reach record highs but there is potential for record high minimum temperatures to be threatened.

Record High Temperatures:

June 12: KJAX: 99/1998

June 13: KJAX: 100/1977

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 11: KJAX: 77/2005 KGNV: 75/2005

June 12: KJAX: 79/1952 KGNV: 76/1963

June 13: KJAX: 79/1880 KGNV: 79/1998

June 14: KJAX: 79/1880 KGNV: 77/1998

June 15: KJAX: 80/1880 KGNV: 78/1998

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 94 75 95 / 10 10 0 20 SSI 77 89 78 92 / 0 10 0 20 JAX 74 94 76 96 / 10 20 0 30 SGJ 73 91 75 91 / 10 10 0 30 GNV 72 94 73 95 / 20 30 20 20 OCF 73 93 74 93 / 20 40 20 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.