textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Local Beaches Today

- Minor Tidal Flooding for Atlantic beachfront locations and along the St Johns river basin

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- High rip current risk and elevated surf at Atlantic beaches

- Minor flooding will continue along the St. Johns River Basin during times of high tide through this evening

Dry air mass will remain in place with a westerly steering flow in place in the low levels, while higher clouds will push in aloft. Despite the filtered sunshine, expect Max temps to return closer to normal levels in the middle 80s. Light and variable winds inland, with an East Coast sea breeze development during the afternoon hours pushing inland to the I-95/US-17 corridors, but not enough moisture aloft for any shower activity. Cooler than normal overnight lows will continue tonight in the dry air mass with lows in the mid/upper 50s inland SE GA, lower 60s inland NE FL and mid/upper 60s along the Atlantic Coast. Some shallow, patchy dense fog possible around sunrise across inland areas, but dense fog headlines are not expected due to the dry air mass in place.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period (Monday through Tuesday night):

- Moderating temperatures, and slowly increasing moisture this period

A frontal zone will extend south across the southeastern US Monday through Tuesday morning, then push to the south through Tuesday night, as an area of high pressure builds to the north northeast.

Drier air will remain in place across area Monday, but moisture will begin to increase across NE FL due to flow from the southwest. Monday is forecast to be a dry with highs generally rising into the upper 80s. A few spots could get to 90. On Monday night, the dry weather will continue, with lows ranging from around 60 over inland SE GA to the mid to upper 60s over NE FL, due to position of the lingering front near the GA/FL line.

On Tuesday, the front will largely dissipates as it moves to the south, and high pressure builds to the north northeast. Moisture will begin to return as it wraps around the high, but dry weather is expected to continue. Highs on Tuesday, will again be above average with readings around 90, away from the immediate coast fairly common.

Tuesday night will be a dry night, with the onshore flow and increased lower level moisture keeping lows closer to seasonal levels in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period (Wednesday through Saturday):

- Increasing chances for convection each day this period

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east northeast Wednesday through Friday. This will result in a warm and moist onshore flow. With this pattern, a gradual increase in precipitation chances is expected with with scattered activity across area Friday.

A low pressure area is expected to move toward the central Gulf coast Saturday, with a frontal zone extending east across the area from this feature. Due to continued moist onshore flow, and convergence associated with this feature, precipitation chances will be scattered to numerous.

Temperatures will trend above seasonal averages this period.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

VFR conds with light W winds becoming SSE later this afternoon in the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze.

MARINE

Lingering elevated combined seas and swells from a departing storm system will continue Small Craft Advisory headlines this morning over the offshore Northeast Florida Coastal waters. Otherwise, high pressure will shift over the region Today and Monday with prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds, turning easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by midweek.

Rip Currents: Long period swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4 to 6 feet will continue high risk of rip currents today. Long period swells will slowly subside early this week with a likely return to Moderate Risk of Rip currents on Monday and Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

MINRH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT TODAY, MID 20S OVER SE GA - Monday, And Around 30 Over Se Ga Tuesday - Patchy Inland High Dispersions Wednesday And Thursday

A frontal zone extending from a low off the coast of the northeastern US will be over area through Tuesday morning. High pressure will then build to the northeast Tuesday afternoon. The high will gradually become centered more toward the east northeast Wednesday through Friday. Moisture will increase this period, bringing more seasonal levels of precipitation chances toward late week.

Fog Potential...Significant fog is not expected this morning.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Astronomical higher than normal tides will continue Today and will continue Minor Flooding during times of high tide within the St. Johns River Basin and have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory through this evening.Water levels peak during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) Today and may need to be extended into Monday with the next forecast package.

CLIMATE

Near record low temperatures are possible at a few of our designated climate sites in northeast and north central FL during the weekend:

Sunday, September 27: KJAX: 54/1940 KGNV: 53/1940 KCRG: 57/1982

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 87 55 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 84 66 86 68 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 86 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 84 63 87 69 / 0 10 0 0 GNV 86 61 89 65 / 10 10 0 0 OCF 87 60 90 67 / 10 10 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for FLZ124-138-233- 333. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ125- 132-137-225-325-633. GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ154-166. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.