textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Today into This Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Gale Warning for most of the Atlantic Coastal Waters. Minor Tidal Flooding Possible Along the Atlantic Coast, ICWW & St. Johns River Basin through mid week. Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- Moderate to strong north to northeast winds expected with gusts to around 30-45 mph. Strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas.

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and possibly minor tidal flooding during high tide

- Below normal temperatures today

Cool, dry, and breezy conditions continue today as the cold front sits south of the Florida peninsula. There remains a low chance for showers moving onshore this afternoon across Flagler and St Johns counties. High temperatures remain below 70s north of I-10, and in the lower to mid 70s south of I-10 today, with low temperatures tonight dipping into the upper 40s for inland southeast Georgia, 50s and 60s elsewhere. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northeast Florida coast through late this evening, frequent gusts near 35-35 mph are expected in addition to several coastal hazards including dangerous rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion. Breezy northeasterly winds will continue overnight for northeast Florida and the southeast Georgia coast.

SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue into mid week with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding.

- Below normal temperatures this period.

A dry airmass will remain over the area keeping dry weather in the forecast at the start of the upcoming week. A tight pressure gradient will persist as high pressure sits over the eastern CONUS and low pressure sits over the western Atlantic, which will bring elevated north-northeasterly wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts around 30 to 35 mph over local waters and along coastal locations. The dry airmass will allow for sunny and clear skies to develop into across the area. Temperatures each afternoon are expected to rise into the 70s, with warmer temperatures on Tuesday afternoon. Overnight Lows will drop into the upper 40s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley Region, while the rest of NE FL will be in the lower to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk expected from Saturday through Tuesday

Dry weather with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue through Friday as drier air along with high pressure ridging situated to the north persists over the region. Chances for for showers are expected to increase for coastal counties in northeast Florida by the weekend as prevailing flow shifts to become more easterly, allowing the diurnal sea breeze to press further inland. High rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, along with minor tidal flooding will carry over through this period as onshore north-northeasterly flow maintains through the forecast period. Temperatures will continue to be below the seasonal average through the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

MVFR ceilings over the NE FL sites may scatter and lift to VFR in the next couple hours. Breezy NNE winds continue into Sunday with sustained winds of 15-20KT and Gusts 25-30 kt for CRG and SGJ, and slightly lower winds elsewhere with sustained winds of 10-15 kt and Gusts 15-20 kt.

MARINE

Strong high pressure building down the eastern US tonight will continue Gale conditions over much of the waters. High pressure weakens as Atlantic low pressure to the east-northeast gradually lifts northward up the eastern seaboard relaxing the local pressure gradient. Gusts to gale force will likely subside by late Monday but small craft level winds and dangerous seas will likely linger through mid-week.

Rip Currents: High Risk of Rips headline out through late Monday night given strong onshore flow and a powerful longshore current. This probably will persist through much of next week. Rough surf is also expected with a high surf advisory remaining in effect.

FIRE WEATHER

ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY - Night

Elevated onshore flow continues this afternoon, with winds from 15 to 25 mph and gusts reaching in the 40+ range along coastal locations. Winds will begin to weaken a bit during the upcoming week, but will still bring breezy conditions along the coast. Dispersions will also be elevated near the coastline over the next couple of nights into midweek due to the persistent breezy onshore flow. With a dry airmass overhead, chances for showers remain very low over the next couple of days. The dry air also bring min RHs down into the 30s over SE GA into midweek.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Portions of the St. Johns basin, mainly south of downtown Jacksonville, have begun to enter minor flood stage with this evening's high tide cycle. Have gone ahead and issued a Coastal Flood Advisory through tomorrow morning's high tide cycle. Advisory may need to be extended and expanded through the week with the continued NNE flow.

The bigger problem may be significant beach erosion likely around times of high tide at the northeast FL beaches beginning today, where breakers will build to the about 7-11 foot range, with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 48 69 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 57 71 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 71 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 66 74 61 75 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 58 76 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 61 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for FLZ132-137- 325-633. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450. Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ452-454-472-474. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ470.