textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards This Week. Coastal Flood Warning for Moderate to Locally Major Flooding around Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the St. Johns River Basin extended through Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind Advisory for the Atlantic Coastal Counties extended through this Evening. Gale Warning for the Atlantic Waters extended through Monday Night. High Surf Advisory & High Risk for Rip Currents through most of this Week. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through most of this Week. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for Coastal Northeast FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- Moderate to Locally Major Coastal/Tidal Flooding Atlantic Coast, ICWW and St. Johns River

- Wind Advisory Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River gusts to 40 mph

- Locally heavy rainfall possible NE FL Coast/I-95 south of JAX

Sharp coastal troughing remains over the area with strong high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states wedging down the eastern seaboard and weak Atlantic low pressure lingering to the southeast. Wind Advisory remains into this evening for the gusty north-northeasterly winds along the SE GA and NE FL coasts. Wind gusts could reach up to around 40 mph at times. Breezy conditions linger overnight with the continued tight pressure gradient. Waves of numerous coastal showers will shift onshore through the late afternoon and evening hours mainly for coastal NE FL counties and I- 95 corridor south of JAX. A few convergent bands may form along the NE FL coast bringing heavier downpours and localized flooding. If these bands coincide with the evening high tide cycle, this could exacerbate the already significant tidal flooding expected. Shower activity wanes overnight with a few coastal showers shifting onshore mainly south of St. Augustine. Meanwhile, a drier airmass (PWATs < 1 in) will keep inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley rain-free. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s inland SE GA to the upper 60s along the NE FL coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Coastal Flood Warnings Remaining in Effect along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate Tidal Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High Tide for these Locations.

- Wind Advisory Conditions are Likely to Continue through Monday Afternoon at Coastal Locations.

- Gale Warnings Continue for the Atlantic Waters through Monday Night.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf Advisories and a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents at All Area Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach Erosion.

A tight pressure gradient situated over the forecast area, between high pressure ridging to the north and a sharp coastal trough to the east and southeast, will act to keep wind speeds of 25 to 30 mph on Monday with wind gusts reaching upwards of 35+ mph, with coastal impacts carrying over through the beginning of the week as astronomical high tides continue. Rain showers moving onshore with the flow pattern will diminish by Tuesday as drier air following the flow pattern advects over the forecast area. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 50s for southeast Georgia and will range between the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s for northeast Florida, with min temps in the upper 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate Tidal Flooding Likely During Times of High Tide Within the St. Johns River Basin. Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Will Continue for Much of the Upcoming Week Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion Continuing at Area Beaches.

- Coastal Shower Coverage Increases along the I-95 Corridor as Northeasterly Winds Again Surge from late Wednesday through Friday.

Northeasterly flow will persist through the week into Friday which, along with coastal troughing and astronomical high tides, will result in a continuance of coastal and marine impacts through the week. Coastal troughing will sharpen after midweek resulting in increased moisture levels and higher chances for showers and storms along the coast and extending into northeast Florida through Friday and into Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will trend near and slightly above average for the end of the week and through into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

MVFR CIGS and gusty NNE winds will dominate through the TAF period. Winds range from 10-15 knots inland and 15-22 knots for the Atlantic Coastal terminals with gusts to 20-25 knots inland and increasing back to around 30 knots through the afternoon hours. Only isolated (VCSH) activity through most of the TAF period for NE FL terminals, but Hi Res models are suggesting another round of heavier showers with at least MVFR VSBYS are possible in the 20-02Z time frame later today so have added PROB30 groups to CRG/SGJ, but will monitor for potential IFR VSBYS in this activity if it develops. NNE winds will slowly fade later tonight after 03Z, returning to 10-15 knots inland, but lower confidence in any lifting of CIGS to VFR late in the TAF period, so have left MVFR CIGS for now. NE winds will increase once again late in the period, but shower activity will shift south of all of the terminals on Monday except for VCSH lingering at SGJ.

MARINE

Strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic and an area of low pressure in the western Atlantic will continue a tight pressure gradient over area waters today into early next week. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected to continue into Monday. The high will weaken slowly to the north this week but winds and waves will remain elevated above headline levels the entire week.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories have been extended through Tuesday night for our entire Atlantic coastline, with surf peaking today and Monday as breakers reach the 8-10 ft range at the northeast FL beaches and 5-7 feet for the southeast GA beaches. High surf conditions will likely continue for the northeast FL beaches through at least Thursday. A high risk of deadly rip currents will continue at all area beaches during the next week, where major beach erosion is likely to occur around times of high tide during this extended duration onshore wind and coastal flooding event.

FIRE WEATHER

ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF OUR - Area During The Next Several Days

Scattered to numerous showers will continue to occasionally move onshore from the Atlantic waters through Monday evening, mainly along the northeast Florida coast, with activity extending inland to around the U.S. Highway 301 corridor. Dry weather will otherwise continue during the next several days across most of inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. Additional rounds of coastal showers will redevelop towards midweek along the I-95 corridor. Gusty northeasterly surface and transport winds will continue through Monday, creating elevated nighttime dispersion values for coastal southeast Georgia and most of northeast and north central Florida tonight. Good daytime dispersion values will likely prevail during the next several days across our region. Northeasterly surface and transport winds will briefly diminish from Monday night through Tuesday night across inland southeast Georgia and the northern Suwannee Valley, while breezy conditions continue elsewhere. Elevated nighttime dispersion values will continue at coastal locations for much of the upcoming week, as northeasterly surface and transport winds likely re-strengthen by Wednesday and Thursday across our area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Continued strong north-northeasterly winds combined with the highest astronomical tides of the year (Hunter's moon) will yield water levels reaching moderate flood levels with a few spots reaching major flood levels during the high tide cycles today and Monday. Peak water levels are anticipated to be 2.5 to 3.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of high tide. Northeast winds will remain breezy on Tuesday and will likely increase again on Wednesday and Thursday, with high astronomical tides due to the lunar perigee maintaining moderate tidal flooding this week within the St. Johns River basin, with minor to moderate flooding continuing during times of high tide along the Atlantic coast.

As astronomical tide levels increase, the combination of the high surf and water levels will create significant beach erosion at area beaches. The long duration of this strong onshore wind event will likely produce major beach erosion during each high tide cycle through at least Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 54 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 72 60 73 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 64 74 61 77 / 40 10 0 0 SGJ 68 75 68 77 / 70 50 10 20 GNV 64 78 62 81 / 30 10 0 10 OCF 65 80 64 82 / 40 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ038-124- 125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-124-125- 138-233-333-433-533. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154- 166. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ474.