textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Widespread Freezes Continue through Tuesday Night. A Hard Freeze is Possible Early this Morning for Inland Southeast GA and the I-10 Corridor. Cold Weather Advisory: Dangerous Wind Chills of 20-25 Degrees Early this Morning. Light Freeze and Widespread Frost Extends to Coastal Locations Early this Morning. Freeze Watch Continues Tonight for Southeast GA and Inland Portions of Northeast and North Central FL.

- Small Craft Advisory Continues Early this Morning for the Offshore Waters.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Overnight surface analysis depicts strengthening low pressure (999 millibars) accelerating north-northeastward of the New England coast. This storm system's associated cold front continues its southeastward push across the Bahamas, Cuba, and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, weakening high pressure (1027 millibars) was building along the northern Gulf coast in the wake of this frontal passage, while Arctic high pressure (1039 millibars) was diving southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the Plains states and the Upper Midwest. Aloft...deep troughing encompasses the eastern two- thirds of the nation, with a potent reinforcing shortwave trough pivoting across the Great Lakes states. Clear skies and a light west-northwesterly breeze continue to usher a colder and gradually drier air mass into our region, with temperatures at 06Z ranging from the upper 20s to around 30 at most inland locations to the low and mid 30s at coastal locations. Dewpoints ranged from the mid 20s across inland southeast GA to the lower 30s for north central and coastal northeast FL.

High pressure building along the northern Gulf coast today will give way to the aforementioned Arctic dome of high pressure that will be building into the southern Plains tonight, with this feature then shifting eastward across the Ozarks and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. A widespread freeze is ongoing across our area overnight, with slowly falling dewpoints and cold air advection allowing for possible hard freeze conditions towards sunrise for locations west of Interstate 95 in southeast GA and northeast FL, with a light freeze and widespread frost extending to coastal locations and north central FL. A light west-northwesterly breeze will drive wind chill values down to the 20-25 degree range during the predawn and early morning hours, which meets criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory for northeast and north central FL.

Plenty of sunshine and a loosening local pressure gradient will allow temperatures to rebound to the low and mid 50s today, with a few locations in north central FL reaching the upper 50s this afternoon. Our local pressure gradient may then tighten somewhat overnight as the Arctic high pressure center begins to build towards the southeastern states, with light winds early this evening becoming northerly and increasing to around 5 mph at inland locations during the predawn hours and 5-10 mph for coastal locations. This breeze may keep lows in the mid to upper 30s for coastal northeast FL overnight and early Tuesday morning, but continued cold air advection and clear skies will again allow for subfreezing temperatures elsewhere, as lows fall to the upper 20s and lower 30s. A Freeze Watch has been maintained throughout southeast GA and was expanded slightly to include coastal Nassau County and inland portions of St. Johns and Flagler Counties. The developing light breeze towards sunrise could again drive wind chill values down to the 20-25 degree range for most inland locations, and another Cold Weather Advisory may be required late tonight and early Tuesday morning for northeast and north central FL.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Dry weather conditions will continue through midweek as the influence of high pressure over the forecast area begins to diminish on Wednesday and move off the coast with a more moist southwesterly flow forming over the forecast area ahead of a gradually advancing cold front pressing in from out of the north. High temperatures will warm from out of the 50s on Tuesday up into the 60s and lower 70s by Wednesday, with warmer temps occurring over north central Florida. Overnight low temperatures will similarly warm by Wednesday night with min temps rising from out of the 20s and 30s up into the 40s and 50s by the end of the period. Freezing conditions are expected for inland southeast Georgia overnight Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Chances for showers will increase on Thursday followed by drier weather on Friday as a weak cold front moves through the forecast area. Chances for showers will increase again on Saturday as a stronger cold front is anticipated to move southward into the region. Temperatures will trend to be near and above the seasonal average through the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Northwesterly surface winds sustained around 5 knots overnight will increase to around 10 knots towards 15Z Monday. Surface winds will then diminish back to around 5 knots towards 00Z Tuesday.

MARINE

Arctic high pressure building into the southeastern states will keep strong northwesterly winds in place through around sunrise on Monday for the offshore waters. Otherwise, northwesterly winds will briefly diminish across our local waters this afternoon before shifting to northerly and strengthening overnight tonight and Tuesday morning. High pressure will then shift towards the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday evening, resulting in winds shifting to northeasterly on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Weak coastal troughing developing over our near shore waters on Wednesday night and Thursday may develop isolated to widely scattered showers. A weak cold front will then push southward across our area on Thursday night and Friday morning, possibly accompanied by a few showers. High pressure building over the Mid-Atlantic states in the wake of this frontal passage will maintain northeasterly winds across our region late this week and into the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Southeast GA Beaches: Low Today and Tuesday Northeast FL Beaches: Low Today, Moderate on Tuesday

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather and clear skies today with winds consistently out of the northwest and building slightly in the afternoon. Min RH values will range within the 30s today and in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday with freezing conditions returning during the overnight and early morning hours today and Tuesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Inland freezes are expected the next couple of mornings. Light freezes and frost may extend to coastal locations tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 52 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 53 32 54 42 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 55 29 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 54 35 57 45 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 56 29 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 57 30 60 38 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024- 030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232- 233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220- 225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522- 533-633. Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140- 220-225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-433-522-533-633. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ470- 472-474.