textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today and Friday Northeast Florida Beaches. Moderate Risk Rip Currents Southeast Georgia Beaches

- Small Craft Advisories Today through Friday morning

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue across the area. Elevated Fire Danger Conditions this Afternoon

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Breezy Coastal Conditions this afternoon; Gusts up to 30 mph - Elevated Fire Danger this afternoon for the I-95 corridor

A dry backdoor cold front has pushed its way south of the area, with gusty coastal northeasterly winds in it's wake. A few showers are lingering well offshore while dry air is mixing humidity down into the upper 20s and lower 30 percent range over inland areas, elevating the fire danger this afternoon as winds gust in the 25-30 mph range along the I-95 corridor. While fire danger is elevated, humidity is anticipated to remain above critical Red Flag levels (more discussed in the fire weather section below).

Tonight, gradients and winds will relax inland overnight as high pressure begins to wedge down the eastern seaboard and settle into the region by daybreak Friday. Little concern for any significant fog tonight given the very dry airmass in the boundary layer, but shallow "ground" fog could develop under the clear skies. The northeasterly flow will prop up tonight's low temps with upper 30s and lower 40s inland and mid to upper 40s at coastal locations.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Moderating temps daily through the end of the week -Patchy Fog possible Friday Night

Temperatures will gradually warm into the weekend as dry conditions persist due to high pressure sitting over the SE CONUS. Light northeasterly flow on Friday will bring cooler air towards the coast, keeping daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for coastal locations, while inland locations will range in the mid to upper 70s. Near calm winds and clearing skies will bring the potential for patchy fog to develop over inland locations during the late evening to early morning. Lows will be in the 40s.

A shift to a more westerly to southwesterly flow on Saturday with high pressure over the Gulf. A rise in temperatures continues, bringing daytime highs to rise into the 80s for most locations, with coastal locations a bit cooler with highs in the upper 70s. High pressure begins to push towards the south Saturday Night. Lows will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Very warm early in the period before a likely cool down late in the period - Next chances for rain with a frontal boundary Monday Night & Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday

High pressure slides just south of the area Sunday before continuing east into the Atlantic. A frontal boundary drops southward towards the area on Monday as the high pressure moves out. Guidance has been trending towards a more progressive frontal passage around Monday Night and Tuesday, though there is still some questions as to where the front will stall over the Florida peninsula towards mid week, if at all. An increase in wind speeds ahead/behind the front will lead to a period of elevated seas for our marine zones.

With temps well above normal ahead of the boundary, expecting at least some convection Monday Night and into Tuesday, which could linger into Wednesday across northeast FL if the boundary stalls over the central FL peninsula. More details to be ironed out over the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Breezy conditions at coastal terminals and are expected through the early evening before falling below 10 knots. VFR conditions prevail and skies will be clear overnight with little potential for any significant visibility restrictions due to fog. Northeast winds will prevail Friday with speeds around 8-12 knots with gusts up to 18 knots at the coast.

MARINE

High pressure north of the region will wedge down the southeastern seaboard Today with Small Craft Advisory conditions over the Southeast Georgia waters through this evening and Northeast Florida waters through Friday morning. Winds and seas are expected to diminish by late Friday as high pressure center reforms to the west of the waters before settling over the local waters Friday night into Saturday. The high will sink south of the waters on Sunday into Monday with southwest to westerly winds ahead of a cold front moving into the waters next Tuesday with increasing northeasterly winds and seas.

Rip Currents: Gusty northeast winds and elevated breakers are creating a High Risk of Rip Currents today for NE FL beaches, while the SE GA beaches will remain at a Moderate Risk with breakers in the 2-4 ft range. High Risk continues for NE FL beaches into Friday with surf/breakers of 3-5 ft and continue northeasterly breeze, with surf/breakers of 2-3 ft and Moderate Risk for SE GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of Critically Low Min Rh Inland Through Friday - Areas Of High Dispersions Through The Weekend

Cool and dry high pressure will remain in place through at least the end of the week, allowing for low to critically low daytime RH values through Friday. Dispersions will be good for most locations on Friday, with interior SE GA seeing Poor to Fair values as the high pressure repositions. Rising mixing heights this weekend will bring high dispersions for most locations. Flow will remain out of the northeast through Friday as well, becoming more out of the west through this weekend and eventually southwest by Monday ahead of the next approaching front. This next front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms once again Monday Night and Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday over portions of northeast FL.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog potential is not expected the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 41 75 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 49 68 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 44 74 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 52 69 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 42 77 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 44 77 46 82 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ452-454-472- 474. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470.