textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local Nor'easter Conditions begin to ease today.

- Life threatening rip currents and high surf continues through at least tonight.

- Minor Flooding in the St Johns River south of Jacksonville Thursday 7-10 AM.

- Elevated Fire Danger For Portions of Southeast GA this afternoon.

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Today and Tonight:

- Strong onshore winds; Coastal Wind Advisory - Life-threatening Surf Zone Conditions - Early morning coastal flooding along southern St Johns River areas

Breezy northeasterly winds will continue on through through today and tonight with wind speeds strengthening in the afternoon to about 10-15 mph with gusts of up to 30-35 mph along the coast and 25-30 mph over inland areas possible. Scattered showers with a potential for thunderstorms will develop along the coast and press inland today in association with the weak coastal trough, with areas near and south of the I-10 corridor most likely to be affected with developments becoming more diminished later this evening. Coastal flooding conditions occurring for areas along the St Johns River south of the Buckman bridge is expected to lessen by mid morning as tides recede. High temperatures this afternoon will reach into the mid to upper 70s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s for areas nearer to the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 50s for inland southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 50s for inland northeast Florida, with min temps along the coast in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents & Elevated Surf Persist at Beaches - Patchy Inland Fog possible inland during the morning hours this weekend

A transition to a warming, mostly sunny, and dry conditions will occur through the weekend. Low level ridging will promote an onshore breeze each day while upper ridge begins to stack over the forecast area through Sunday. Forecast soundings indicate that a prominent dry airmass in above 850mb will negate any attempts of buildups along the Atlantic sea breeze.

Highs Friday will moderate to near normal along the coast in the mid 70s with highs bumping above normal into the lower 80s. As ridging builds overhead, temperatures will warm 2-4 degrees over the weekend.

With calming conditions inland Friday and Saturday night, there will be conditions favorable for shallow fog development toward daybreak Saturday and Sunday mornings.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming temperatures and fair sensible weather - Elevated to High Wildfire Danger will be possible inland each day

Prolonged period of dry and above normal temperatures through next week as stubborn upper ridging remains anchored over the forecast area at least Wednesday before breaking down. This will favor continued warming trend with inland highs flirting with 90 degrees again by the middle of next week. These warm temperatures will intensify the thermal trough, enhancing the winds associated with the Atlantic sea breeze. Hotter and rain- free conditions may enhance local wildfire danger next week due multiple days of low afternoon humidity and critically dry fuels.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Winds will build in from out of the NE with ceilings dropping into MVFR levels throughout the day with developing convection mainly affecting SGJ through the afternoon and then becoming dispersed by around 00z. Gusty winds will persist through a majority of the forecasted period with stronger winds affecting coastal sites.

MARINE

Strong high pressure will be centered the north northeast through today, with an inverted trough to the south. The high will weaken as it settles over the southeastern US on Friday. The high will move off to the northeast over the weekend, and more toward the east northeast next week.

Rip Currents and Surf:

Onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through Friday, and likely through the weekend as elevated surf and onshore flow prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Breezy easterly winds will continue but be much lighter than yesterday, with gusts 20 to 25 mph inland and up to 30 mph at the coast. Humidity will fall near 30 percent for portions of southeast GA, northwest of Waycross, and combine with breezy conditions to elevate fire danger. Temperatures will trend warmer and inland afternoon humidity lower through the weekend and into next week as an upper level ridge builds over FL and GA. Low humidity and a gusty easterly sea breeze is likely to set up elevated fire weather conditions throughout next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected this morning or Friday morning. Patchy fog potential increases over the weekend.

HYDROLOGY

Days of strong onshore flow have "trapped" tidal flow in the middle St. Johns River basin. This has pushed tide gauges to read at "Action" levels. The next high tide is likely to raise the stage to "Minor" flood levels during the mid to late morning hours for portions of the river south of the Buckman Bridge. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued to highlight elevated tidal levels this morning. This will be revisited to address the potential for flooding during the evening high tide, once we assess this morning's tidal behavior on that stretch of the river. Only minor impacts are expected with water levels at 1.5-1.75 feet above normally dry ground.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 75 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 68 61 73 61 / 10 10 10 0 JAX 74 59 78 57 / 30 10 10 0 SGJ 75 62 76 62 / 40 10 10 0 GNV 78 56 81 55 / 30 0 0 0 OCF 78 59 82 57 / 40 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for FLZ024-038- 124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-425-433-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for FLZ132-137-633. GA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for GAZ154-166. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.