textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extreme Drought Expanding Across our Region.

- Small Craft Advisory through This Evening Offshore. Small Craft Advisory For Nearshore FL waters This Afternoon.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches Today.

- Patchy fog inland areas this morning, and for inland southeast GA Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Rest of tonight, the surface low that is over the Carolinas will move offshore of the NC coast by 12z today. Low level flow flow will continue to be westerly for a few more hours until post-frontal troughing/front pushes through early this morning. Scattered light shower activity will continue to skirt near the coast and move east into the Atlantic. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and some patchy fog is to be expected early this morning.

During the daytime, post-frontal trough moves through the area in the morning swinging the surface winds around to the north and then north-northeast. High pressure ridge around 1024 mb will move in from the north, pushing through the Carolinas. Mostly cloudy skies affect most of the area in the morning, with some gradual clearing occurring from the north and northeast during the afternoon as drier air moves in. Breezy northeast winds expected along the coastal areas at 15-20 mph. Highs today will be chilly compared to yesterday and have blended some lower guidance with the NBM primary output. Max temps in the 60s most areas with lower 70s over the southwest zones.

Tonight, high pressure center moves over SC with ridge axis southwest into GA and srn AL. A northeast low level flow expected with some onshore/stratocu clouds affecting the northeast FL coastal zones, but weather conditions will remain dry. Coolest overnight temps around 40 deg inland southeast GA and then mid 40s and lower 50s over the inland northeast FL and coastal northeast FL, respectively. HREF output, NBM vsby guidance, and NAM Bufr sounding support patchy to areas of fog for inland southeast GA overnight. Could be some locally dense fog there given the moist ground from recent rainfall and the lighter wind flow near the ridge axis.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Tuesday, mid/upper level ridging will move across the TN valley into the southern Appalachians and allow surface high pressure to shift from upstate SC/eastern NC to the NC/SC coast through the afternoon hours. Locally light east winds will turn southeasterly well inland under mostly sunny skies. Highs will be cooler at the coast due to the onshore flow off cooler shelf waters in the mid 60s along the SE GA coast to the Jax beaches and the upper 60s further south along the NE FL coast, but will warm to the low 70s over inland SE GA and St Johns river basin with mid to upper 70s over inland NE FL west of US-17.

Tuesday night, the high will shift away from the southeast coast more to our east. Thin high level clouds will increase overnight and the moist low level flow will support at patchy fog potential given the light winds. Lows will fall into the low 50s along the SE GA coast NE FL with upper 40s to near 50F over inland SE GA.

Wednesday, high pressure will reform towards Bermuda with low level ridging sliding eastward into the Atlantic waters. Light southerly winds will become more southwesterly in the low levels and trend surface winds more south southwesterly. A weak Gulf coast and Atlantic coast seabreeze will develop in the afternoon hours with some potential for sea fog/mist drifting onto the beaches as dewpoints rise into the low 60s. Skies will be partly cloudy under low level cumulus fields with widely isolated showers over the far western portions of the area as the Gulf seabreeze moves inland. Highs warm to around 80F over NE FL along and west of the I-95 to I-75 while the coast remains in the low 70s with upper 70s over inland SE GA.

Wednesday night, initially partly cloudy skies will trend to low stratus spreading north to northeastward from the Gulf coast with patchy fog along I-75 in NE FL and US-441 in SE GA. Lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The period will feature broad ridging stretching from across the FL peninsula from the south central Gulf waters midweek, then shifting eastward from the the Bahamas to Cuba Friday into Saturday as the troughing over the western US deepens and moves northeastward to the central plains and the upper Midwest. This pattern will allow for surface high pressure to remain near Bermuda with surface ridge axis extending over south FL Thursday and Friday, then begin to nudge further south and east Saturday as a cold front sinks towards the area from the northwest. Widely isolated to scattered showers will develop in the afternoon Thursday and Friday as the Gulf seabreeze shifts inland while breezy southwest winds keeps the Atlantic seabreeze pinned just offshore. Ahead of the front on Saturday, more organized scattered showers will move across SE GA with a line of showers pressing across the area Sunday as the front moves through the area.

The influence of the high pressure will allow for warmer days with low potential for reach daily record highs (see climate section) and partly cloudy skies with daily seabreezes and southwest flow that will push the Gulf seabreeze well inland while pinning the Atlantic seabreeze just off the coast. Some warm air advection will allow dewpoints to recover to the the low 60s over NE FL and near 60 over SE GA. As a result, overnight fog/low stratus potential increases from the Gulf coast with sea fog likely remaining offshore over the coastal Atlantic waters due to the the southwest flow.

Temperatures will begin around 10 degrees through the week and trend 10-15 degrees above normal into the start of next weekend before cooling back to a little above normal Sunday and below normal Sunday night as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Low level moisture will continue to wrap around the back side of the low pressure system that is transiting the southeast CONUS and adjacent Atlantic waters. This cyclonic pattern around the low pressure system will continue to support areas to widespread MVFR and then increased chance of IFR Monday by 12z. Most of the cigs will become MVFR by 18z-20z and then continued slow improvement into late Monday afternoon and evening. Forecasting VFR clouds for GNV, SSI, and VQQ by evening time. Sfc winds, westerly about 10 kt and become northwest by 12z and becoming north and northeast by 15z-18z at 10-15 kt. Gusts around 20 kt expected for SGJ, SSI, CRG today. Winds should relax tonight.

MARINE

A low pressure system will move northeast of the area today while a trailing cold front moves through the area waters through early Monday morning. Breezy southwest and west winds will shift to north by mid morning. Small Craft Conditions will continue across portions of the area today due to the moderately strong northerly winds developing. High pressure builds to the north behind the front and will lead to breezy northeasterly winds this afternoon into this evening. Winds relax through Tuesday while shifting to the south by Wednesday as high pressure ridge moves southeast of the area waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk with some increased risk especially for the northeast FL waters. Surf breakers up to 2-4 ft today as the winds gradually turn north and then north-northeast. Moderate to high risk for Tuesday due to onshore flow, with the highest risk probably for the northeast FL beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Daytime Dispersions Tuesday Along The Coast - Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Wednesday

Surface trough extending behind departing low pressure system will sink southeastward across the area this morning into midday with mostly cloudy skies gradually clearing this afternoon as high pressure builds in from the northwest filtering in some drier air to the area. Northerly winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph inland and 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph along the coast will turn northeast through in the afternoon hours. Dry conditions will prevail into midweek as the high shifts in from just north of the area Tuesday with light east winds turning southeasterly in the afternoon hours and weak transport winds keeping dispersions poor along the coast due to cooler temperatures near the coast limiting mixing heights. The high will move more east of the area Wednesday into Friday with south to southwest breezy winds in the afternoon and daily Gulf seabreeze developing and moving well inland during the afternoon hours while the Atlantic seabreeze remains just offshore. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected over the next few days. Patchy fog and low stratus development will return each morning starting Tuesday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures this week into the weekend.

February 19: KAMG: 82/2018

February 20: KJAX: 86/1961 KGNV: 86/2019 KAMG: 83/2014 KCRG: 83/2014

February 21: KJAX: 86/2019 KCRG: 84/2019

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 65 40 72 50 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 49 64 53 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 66 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 65 51 70 53 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 71 47 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 71 49 78 53 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ470- 472-474.