textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Local NorEaster Conditions Through Thursday. Gale Force Winds Across the Coastal Waters Through Tonight, Then Small Craft. Life Threatening Coastal Hazards through the End of the Week. Frequent, Strong Rip Currents and Rough Surf (up to 12 ft Wed/Thurs). Minor Beach Erosion Possible. Gusty Winds Along the NE FL Coast/St Johns River Wind Advisory. Waves of Beneficial Rain For Coastal Northeast FL Through Wed Night

- Red Flag Warning for Southeast GA 2-8 PM Today

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Strong onshore winds; Coastal Wind Advisory

- Red Flag Conditions for inland SE GA

- Life-threatening Surf Zone Conditions

The second punch of strong northeasterly winds will unfold today as strong ridging wedges southward down the eastern seaboard further tightening the gradients. Winds will be stronger today compared to yesterday with better mixing anticipated. That said, sustained winds are likely to reach Wind Advisory levels for areas along the I-95 corridor and along the St Johns River basin. Peak winds are expected between 1 PM and 5 PM this afternoon and gusts over this period may register in the 45-50 mph ranger at the beaches. The current Wind Advisory will be expanded slightly inland after 9 AM and last through Midnight tonight. Gradients will slowly relax but breezy to gusty winds are expected at the coast through the early hours Thursday.

In addition to the wind, the convergent onshore flow will send shallow inverted troughs inland which will advect scattered to numerous showers off the Atlantic inland with best chances of a quarter to half inch of rainfall will be along the NE FL coast. Instability will be generally below 500 J/kg and focused in the lower levels which should limit the potential for t'storms to isolated at best today and tonight.

Mostly cloudy to overcast skies and the onshore flow will keep temperatures on the cooler side again today with highs only reaching the low 70s this afternoon. Inland lows will be similar to this morning especially across SE GA and Suwannee Valley where a drier airmass resides and reading will be in the low mid 50s. Warmer lows are expected across NE FL, reading in the low 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy Onshore Conditions Gradually Easing Each Day - High Risk for Rip Currents & Elevated Surf Persist at Beaches

Though onshore flow continues during this period, overall trend will be a gradual relaxation of the pressure gradient throughout both Thursday and Friday as high pressure weakens to our north and coastal troughing accordingly. With this trend will also come more consistent breaks in cloud cover across the region, and therefore a warming temperature trend as well. The only significant hazards/concerns during this time frame will be beach/coastal hazards which are likely to continue, specifically high risk of dangerous rip currents and as well as surf heights in the 7-10 foot range. High temps will remain in the 70s on Thursday with breezier flow continuing, bumping up to the mid to upper 70s east and low 80s west by Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warming Temperatures & Fair/Dry Conditions Throughout the Long Term Period

Drier and fair weather is expected throughout the entirety of the weekend and into at least early next week as high pressure re- establishes to our north on Saturday, slowly sliding off the US east coast early next week. Ridging will also remain firmly in place aloft, increasing subsidence and therefore unfortunately favoring a dry period for drought conditions to continue. Ridging aloft with an overall weaker flow favors temps above normal throughout the long term period, especially inland as flow direction will remain primarily onshore.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Waves of light showers will shift onshore through the day leading to periodic visibility restrictions and cloud bases falling to MVFR levels. Northeasterly winds will become gusty areawide this morning as a reinforcing wind surge reaches the area with gusts of 30-35 kts at the TAF sites by this afternoon with the potential for 40 kt gusts at KSSI/KSGJ. Peak winds are expected between 17z-23z with only a gradual decrease in winds after 00z this evening.

MARINE

A reinforcing surge of northeasterly winds today will continue frequent gale force gusts across the waters through Tonight while waves of numerous showers and isolated storms remain possible as coastal trough develop and push eastward across the waters. Northeast winds will slowly decrease Thursday into Friday and more so Friday into the weekend. Like winds, seas will lower through Friday bu anticipate elevated seas to linger through the weekend, especially offshore.

Rip Currents and Surf:

A reinforced surge of onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents through Thursday. As the strongest winds during this event arrive today breakers will rise to 10-13 feet. The surf zone will be a very dangerous and become life-threatening to any swimmer regardless of experience. Given the high breakers, minor beach erosion will be possible.

FIRE WEATHER

- AREAS OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA TODAY - PATCHY HIGH DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

Northeasterly wind event continues today across the region, with more cloud cover and scattered showers across northeast FL with more breaks in the clouds across southeast GA on average. Along with breezy conditions persisting area-wide, much better mixing with lower daytime RH will result in conditions NEAR Red Flag Warning across southeast GA, as well as areas of high dispersions. Gradual clearing Thursday and through Friday will allow patchy/areas of high dispersions to spread across the entirety of the area, even as the stronger onshore winds subside. MinRH values are likely to remain below 35 percent across interior GA during this time frame. Onshore winds continue to subside by this weekend, with drier conditions spreading inland as well as elevated dispersions likely to continue.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected over night next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 72 49 75 51 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 68 59 69 62 / 30 20 20 10 JAX 70 59 73 58 / 50 30 30 10 SGJ 73 62 73 63 / 70 50 50 20 GNV 73 58 76 56 / 50 30 30 0 OCF 74 61 77 59 / 60 30 40 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ024-132-137- 225-425. Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ038-124-125- 138-233-325-333-433-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ154-166. High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>135. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452-454-470- 472-474.