textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy Fog Development Possible for Southeast GA and portions of the I-95 and I-10 Corridors in Northeast FL Early This Morning.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches from Thursday into the Weekend

- Isolated Afternoon and Early Evening TStorms Return for Inland Locations Beginning on Sunday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy to Areas of Fog This Morning

- Dry conditions return Today

A dry cold front is moving southeastward through our area early this morning while a few remnant coastal showers have pushed south of the waters as low pressure exits well to the east. Westerly winds under 5 mph increasing to 5-10 mph from the NW behind the boundary with patchy to areas of locally dense fog ahead of the front along with broken deck of mid level clouds along and east of US 301. The front is driven by a strong mid to upper level trough axis extending southward across the lee side of the southern Appalachian mountains from the eastern Great Lakes. Dry NW flow aloft and clearing skies are allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 50s to around 60 over SE GA and the low 60s over inland NE FL west of US 301 with mid 60s along I-95 and the coast with dewpoints falling in a similar fashion.

Dry, sunny, and breezy conditions will prevail today as high pressure builds in from the NW. Winds from the NW will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph. A few flat cumulus may develop in the afternoon due to strong heating with highs reach the upper 80s over NE FL and the low to mid 80s over SE GA.

Tonight, clear skies and light northerly winds will allow for some cooler air advection to bring lows well below normal for mid May. Lows will fall to the low 50s with isolated upper 40s over SE GA, low to mid 50 along I-10, mid to upper 50s southward into north central FL and moderate to the low to mid 60s along the NE FL and SE GA coast as northerly winds increase along the coast after midnight 10-15 mph.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier weather conditions through end of the week

- Warmer temperatures on Saturday

Predominantly dry weather conditions persist through the end of the week and into the weekend with initially clear skies becoming more cloudy on Saturday as high pressure moves further eastward and prevailing flow shifts about to become more southerly. There will be a slight chance for light isolated showers over northeast Florida Saturday afternoon as the diurnal sea breeze presses inland from out of the Atlantic. High temperatures will rise to be in the upper 80s and lower 90s on throughout the forecast area on Saturday with overnight low temperatures similarly warming to be in the mid to upper 60s over inland areas and in the lower 70s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered afternoon showers along the sea breeze on Sunday and into next week

Chances for afternoon showers and storms will increase through into midweek as more moist air flows over the Florida peninsula from out of the southeast and south as dry air and high pressure moves off towards the northeast. Development of daily bouts of convection will be tied with the diurnal east coast sea breeze, developing initially along the coast and progressing inland. Daily high temperatures are expected to remain near the seasonal average through the end of the weekend and into next week with overnight low temperatures trending a bit above average through midweek.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at SSI/SGJ/GNV TAF sites while some restrictions for MVFR/IFR patchy fog and low stratus clouds ahead of a frontal boundary expected at JAX/CRG/VQQ 08-12Z. After 12Z, passage of dry cold front will result in VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Breezy NW winds 10-12 knots gusting to near 20 knots after 14Z today with few clouds around 3.0 kft and then skies turning clear this evening and decreasing NW winds to 5-8 knots. A weak seabreeze will form at SGJ this afternoon turning winds briefly east northeasterly after 20Z, then resuming a NW direction after 00Z.

MARINE

A dry cold front will move through the area waters this morning with high pressure building in from the northwest with northwest winds below exercise caution levels. The high will spill over the lee side of the southern appalachian mountains to the north late tonight into early Friday with a surge of northeast winds Friday morning nearing exercise caution levels over the Georgia waters with breezy east northeasterly winds Friday afternoon. The high will shift over the waters Friday night before moving to the east this weekend near Bermuda with daily Atlantic seabreeze developing near the coast each afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms into early next week.

Rip Currents:

Moderate risk of rip currents at Northeast Florida beaches with a low risk at southeast GA beaches today due to offshore winds. A moderate risk of rip currents will return Friday with onshore easterly winds behind the afternoon Atlantic seabreeze.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Dispersions Area-Wide Today

- Near Critical Daytime Minimum Relative Humidly Values Today and Friday over Inland Southeast Georgia

Northwesterly winds will build through the afternoon today with dry weather conditions and mostly clear skies. Daytime minRH values today and Friday will drop to near critical levels for inland southeast Georgia, however wind speeds are not expected to rise to Elevated Fire Danger criteria levels today. Area-wide high daytime dispersion values will be in place today with the passing of the front along with elevated dispersion levels returning this weekend across inland locations west of the I-95 corridor. Potential for afternoon showers on Sunday as overall wind flow shift to become more from out of the southeast.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of locally Dense Fog will develop along and east of US 301 in Southeast Georgia and along portions of I-95 and I-10 corridors in Northeast Florida early this morning through sunrise.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 80 54 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 84 63 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 86 57 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 87 64 85 70 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 87 57 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 86 61 88 68 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.