textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Daily Mainly Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Today-Thu: Mainly Inland Northeast Florida (between HWY 301 & I-75). Fri Weekend: Increasing chances including Southeast GA

- Moderate Rip Current Risk SE GA & NE FL Beaches Today

- Minor River Flooding for Satilla River

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

Breezy NE winds continue with the area between high pressure wedging down the eastern seaboard and the frontal remnants developing into an inverted trough in the Atlantic waters offshore of the SE US. A few coastal showers develop in the onshore flow early this morning and gradually shift onshore of coastal NE FL in the mid-late morning hours. With stronger NE flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will shift well inland later this morning and afternoon pinning the Gulf sea breeze to the coast. Drier air (PWATs 1.4-1.7 in) will limit convection to NE FL south of I-10 today. Isolated showers and storms develop along the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon with convection ending and shifting into the Gulf by 5 PM. Highs today will range from the upper 80s along the coast to the low-mid 90s inland. With the drier air, heat indices decrease to the upper 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows will be more seasonable in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Gradual Increases in Convective Coverage Each Day - Elevated Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches

Drier air aloft will continue to have an influence of chances for showers and t'storms again Thursday, with overall expecting similar coverage compared to Wednesday. Chances will remain mainly confined to north central FL where the highest available moisture will be and less subsidence aloft, with the main focus area for stronger storm potential being generally towards and west of the I-75 corridor where the northeast flow reaches the Gulf Sea Breeze. High temps will once again be mainly in the low to mid 90s, except for some upper 80s closer to the immediate coastline. A few coastal showers will remain possible both Thursday Morning and overnight Thursday Night into Friday Morning as a weak coastal trough lingers, with min temps in the 70s.

Stacked high pressure weakens a bit and shifts towards more northeast of the region on Friday, which will result in more of a east to southeasterly flow at the surface and higher layer moisture/PWATs starting to return to the area. This will shift the "axis" of diurnal convection a bit closer to central areas with more of a Gulf Sea Breeze influence, with the highest PoPs still residing over northeast FL. The flow shift will result in high temps a few degrees warmer close to the coast where more readings in the low 90s are expected. Inland, mid 90s will be most common. A few coastal showers are likely to continue for Friday Night as well, with similar low temps mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Higher Storm Chances Return for Much of the Area - Building Heat for Southeast GA

High pressure will shift increasingly east of the area this weekend and into early next week, returning low level flow towards more south to southwesterly and more numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage. This will also result in temperatures leaning above normal, and combined with the increasing low level moisture and humidity may also return potential for heat headlines for at least some of the area.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours, but could see MVFR ceilings as stratocumulus pushes onshore this morning. Light winds overnight, then breezy northeasterly winds after 13Z, as a few showers push onshore during the mid-morning hours and through the afternoon hours. Chance of storms over inland locations during the afternoon hours, with possible impacts to GNV.

MARINE

Breezy northeasterly winds continue high pressure wedges down the eastern seaboard and an inverted trough weakens off the coast of Florida. The trough will also bring scattered showers and storms this morning and into Thursday as it weakens and lifts north of the area. Winds will lighten and turn southerly behind the trough on Friday as high pressure builds to the east. Ridging will progressively slide southeast through the weekend resulting in offshore flow and increased afternoon and early evening thunderstorm chances.

Rip Currents:

Onshore winds and surf increasing to 3 to 4 feet will result in a high end Moderate risk for rip currents this afternoon. Moderate risk continues for Thursday in the onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Over Interior Se Georgia Today

Onshore flow will continue today as strong high pressure remains to our north. The high pressure and drier airmass will limit shower and t'storm chances towards north central FL as the Atlantic sea breeze quickly pushes inland. Stronger than normal winds above the surface for this time of year will result in fair to good dispersions across northeast FL and the coasts, with areas of high dispersions over inland GA with less maritime influence and better mixing. With the drier air and sufficient mixing, minRH values will fall into the 35 to 40% range for these areas both today and Thursday afternoon/evening. Shower and t'storm chances gradually return further north and west Thursday and into Friday, but especially for the upcoming holiday weekend. Dispersions overall look to be on a downward trend for the rest of the week after today.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not anticipated through the period. Any stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and strong, erratic wind gusts, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours.

HYDROLOGY

Satilla River at Atkinson will remain in Minor Flood through the weekend but will continue to gradually lower.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 94 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 89 77 89 79 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 90 74 91 75 / 20 10 10 10 SGJ 89 76 90 77 / 30 0 20 10 GNV 92 71 93 73 / 30 0 30 0 OCF 91 72 92 74 / 30 0 20 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.