textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Mainly Afternoon & Evening TStorms through Wed. Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail Possible. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible on Monday Afternoon and Evening

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches through Midweek

- Strengthening Onshore Winds, Increased Marine Hazards Late Wednesday. High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough Surf Expected at Area Beaches. Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: (Monday through Tuesday night)

- Scattered to Numerous Mainly Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms Expected, with a few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall

Weak high pressure will be northeast of the region Monday. An inverted trough will move overhead of the local area Monday afternoon through Monday night. An upper low will also be over the area Monday. The combination of the inverted trough, and upper low will result in above average chances for precipitaiton Monday. Temperatures will be above average Monday into Monday night.

The surface trough will develop into an area of low pressure once over the Western Atlantic, and track north northeast away from the area Tuesday through Tuesday night, as high pressure builds south along the east coast of the US and into the local area. Moist onshore flow will keep precipitation chances above average Tuesday. Above average temperatures will continue Tuesday into Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: (Wednesday through Sunday):

- Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Continue on Wednesday.

- Strengthening Northeasterly Winds will Bring Increasing Marine Hazards to Coastal Locations on Thursday and Friday.

- Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week and Next Weekend.

Surface high pressure will continue to extend down the eastern US states, and into local area Wednesday and Thursday, with an upper trough over the area. The surface low is expected to strenghten to the northeast through Thursday, with a surge of winds moving down the coastal waters due to pinched gradient between the high over land and low over water. Winds will become gusty Thursday, especially along the coast.

The high will weaken and move more toward the northwest Friday through Sunday, allowing the low to move closer to the mid Atlantic coast. Upper troughing will be in place Friday through Sunday.

Precipitation chances will be above average across the area on Wednesday, then the greatest chances will focus near the coast.

Temperatures this period will trend above average on Wednesday, then below for the remainder of this period.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Convection has become mostly dispersed for the rest of the evening with winds trending to become more calm after midnight with a potential for areas of low stratus and patchy fog affecting inland sites around 08z to 12z. Early morning showers may again develop along a coastal trough affecting sites nearer the shoreline on Monday, with convection anticipated to begin pressing inland by around 16z.

MARINE

Surface troughing and a disturbance aloft located just west of Tampa Bay will remain nearly stationary through tonight before lifting slowly north-northeastward across our local waters by Monday night and Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Thursday. Light, east-northeasterly winds will prevail through Tuesday with afternoon sea breeze shifting winds easterly across the nearshore waters. Strong high pressure will wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday afternoon and evening, creating a surge of northeasterly winds that will likely create Small Craft Advisory conditions across our local waters by Thursday and is likely to persist through Friday.

Rip Currents: Persistent east-northeasterly winds will keep a lower-end moderate risk in place through midweek at all area beaches. A strong surge of northeasterly winds and building breaker heights will arrive on Wednesday evening, and a high risk is a near certainty at all area beaches on Thursday and Friday, possibly continuing into next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Weakening high pressure will be northeast of the region through Monday morning. An inverted trough will build over the area Monday afternoon through Monday night. On Tuesday through Thursday the trough will develop into an area of low pressure and track to the northeast, while high pressure builds down across the eastern US. The high will build more toward the northwest late in the week into the weekend as low pressure moves toward the mid Atlantic coast.

Daily thunderstorm chances this week, with the greatest chances through Wednesday.

Fog Potential...Patchy inland fog.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 71 90 71 91 / 10 30 10 20 SSI 75 86 75 87 / 30 40 40 40 JAX 72 88 72 88 / 10 30 20 50 SGJ 74 86 74 87 / 10 30 30 50 GNV 71 90 71 90 / 20 50 20 60 OCF 72 90 72 90 / 10 60 20 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.