textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents at all Area Beaches today and likely again on Memorial Day.

- Daily chances for Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Today, through the upcoming Week.

- Daily Heat Index 95-105F During the Next Several Days

- Historic Drought & Elevated Wildfire Danger Continues

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and localized flooding this evening for inland counties, west of I-95.

- High Risk of Rip Currents Continues at all area beaches this afternoon.

Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coast will continue over the next few hours where old outflow has enhanced coastal convergence in a fairly unstable airmass along the First Coast and the adjacent waters. This activity will gradually move offshore by sunrise.

A slight change to the pattern today as upper ridging near Cuba lifts northward and phases with the stronger Bermuda ridge. Convective potential will not be entirely subdued by the increased subsidence and warming aloft but it will decrease the potential for strong to severe thunderstorm development this afternoon.

A light low level southerly steering flow continues, allowing sea breezes from the Gulf and Atlantic to push inland this afternoon, acting as the primary focus for scattered convection. Weak flow through the lower half of the atmosphere will lead to slow-moving thunderstorms, which will be fed by anomalous deep moisture (PWAT 1.75-1.9"). Heavy rain rates and slow storm motion could lead to localized flooding this afternoon and evening, especially as the sea breezes collide between the I-75 and US 301 corridors between 7-9 PM.

Overall, convection will decrease in coverage during the late evening but a grazing shortwave impulse lifting across western GA may continue scattered showers and isolated storms across portions of SE GA through the early morning hours Monday.

Temperatures will follow a similar diurnal trend today, rising into the upper 80s and low 90s once again this afternoon with heat index values pushing into the upper 90s and be followed by mild, muggy conditions tonight with lows in the low 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily afternoon/evening thunderstorms - Hot and humid conditions

Bermuda ridging extending across the SE US will gradually shift southward early next week maintaining low level SSE flow. Meanwhile, the parade of shortwaves continue to round the ridge and move across SE GA in the upper SW flow. Slightly drier air (PWATS 1.5-1.8 in) begins to filter in from the SSE Monday afternoon into Tuesday. This will lower convective coverage to scattered over NE FL and along the coast early next week as the sea breezes shift inland. Better coverage will be over the Suwannee Valley of NE FL and inland SE GA where PWATs will be closer to 1.8-2.0 inches and potentially enhanced by passing shortwaves.

Highs will be above seasonable in the mid 80s to low 90s with max heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

- Chances of showers and storms each day through the week

The high pressure ridge axis across the southeast states and the western Atlantic will gradually shift southeastward through mid-late week next week. Moisture gradually returns in the SSW flow increasing convective coverage to more scattered to numerous area- wide along the diurnal sea breezes. A threat for gusty wet downburst winds 40-50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be present each day through the period.

Highs will be near normal Wednesday and Thursday with upper 80s to near 90, then near to slightly below normal Friday into Saturday with highs in the 80s. Lows will be above normal in the upper 60s over SE GA and low 70s over NE FL with mid 70s at the coast during the period.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Leftover light rain from earlier convection will dissipate through 07z with conditions mainly VFR through the night with scattered clouds as low as 1.5-2 kft. Due to the earlier rainfall, localized fog may develop, particularly at KVQQ around 09-11z. Southeasterly winds will develop ahead of the Atlantic sea breeze which will turn winds ESE this afternoon as it moves inland. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop along the sea breeze as it moves inland, with occasional TSRA impacts along the I-95 corridor as early as 19z this afternoon. Later impacts will occur further inland at KGNV with highest TSRA chance between 21z-02z this evening. The sea breeze will push inland quick enough to keep convection west of KSGJ and KSSI through the day. With convection, anticipate brief heavy downpours that may lead IFR to LIFR visibility.

MARINE

Influence of Bermuda high pressure will continue a south to southeasterly wind over the waters through the upcoming week. Daily afternoon and evening surges are expected with winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Widely scattered showers and offshore thunderstorms are possible this morning, with activity then becoming more isolated on Memorial Day and Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure will then shift southward around Thursday this week,increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across our area as prevailing winds become southerly.

Rip Currents:

Due to breezy onshore winds this afternoon, and surf around 3-4 feet, there will be a High Risk at all area beaches this afternoon and evening. High risk is likely to continue into Monday due the afternoon southeasterly wind surge.

FIRE WEATHER

Numerous showers and storms will limit dispersions this afternoon into the fair to good range. Showers and storms develop along the inland moving sea breezes each afternoon. Generally southerly flow will result in the sea breeze merger occurring between the I-75 and US 301 corridors in the late afternoon into early evening today. Isolated strong thunderstorms are also possible along the merger in the late afternoon into early evening. Potential hazards still expected to be strong wind gusts, heavy downpours, localized flooding, and frequent lightning. Some drier air aloft then moves in from the east early next week leading to lower storm coverage to scattered for most of the area except over portions of Southeast Georgia north of US-82. Elevated mixing heights and slightly increasing transport winds early next week will lead to good to patchy high dispersions Monday and Tuesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week. Erratic winds during periods of thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 87 69 87 69 / 80 60 80 60 SSI 86 77 86 77 / 40 30 20 30 JAX 89 75 89 75 / 70 30 30 20 SGJ 89 76 89 77 / 50 30 30 10 GNV 90 72 91 73 / 80 40 50 50 OCF 90 73 91 74 / 70 40 40 40

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.