textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Numerous Strong to Severe Storms across Southeast Georgia and the I-10 corridor of North Florida this morning with Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Heavy Downpours.

- Scattered Strong storms spread into the rest of Northeast Florida south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon with gusty winds of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours.

- Heat Indices of 104-108F expected for Northeast Florida Today, mainly to the south of the I-10 corridor

- KVAX (Valdosta, GA) Radar is Out of Service. Please utilize other area radars for active weather Today.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Numerous Strong to Severe Storms across Southeast Georgia and the I-10 corridor of North Florida this morning with Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Heavy Downpours.

- Scattered Strong storms spread into the rest of Northeast Florida south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon with gusty winds of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours.

- Heat Indices of 104-108F expected for Northeast Florida Today, mainly to the south of the I-10 corridor

Active weather pattern Today as remnant tropical low pressure system across North Georgia early this morning will track rapidly E-NE through the Carolinas this afternoon and offshore into the Atlantic tonight. The main weather story will be several rounds of strong to severe storms pushing across SE GA this morning with some of the activity reaching the I-10 corridor of inland North FL by the mid morning hours. These storms will have the potential for strong to severe winds to 60 mph, and a low risk for an isolated tornado. The training nature of this activity will support heavy rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches across most of inland SE GA, but ongoing drought conditions and not much rainfall there over the past couple of days should prevent the need for any Flood Watch to be posted. Outflows for the morning convection will push southward into NE FL and will help to trigger scattered strong storms this afternoon, mainly south of the I-10 corridor, main impacts will be gusty wind potential up to 50 mph, but an isolated storm cannot be ruled out. The exiting low pressure system will leave a trailing frontal boundary near the FL/GA border tonight which will help to continue scattered showers and storms through the overnight hours, but the severe weather threat should lessen after midnight.

Temperature forecast a bit more of a challenge today, with abundant cloud cover and rainfall chances from the I-10 corridor northward across SE GA and expect Max Temps to only reach into the mid/upper 80s across SE GA, around 90F along the I-10 corridor, while the later start to any storm activity across NE FL south of the I-10 corridor will lead to Max Temps into the lower/middle 90s and potential Heat Indices into the 104-108F range, especially south of a line from Gainesville to St. Augustine, and Heat Advisory conditions will be possible, but uncertainty with cloud cover and rainfall timing, so will hold off on any Heat Advisory headlines for now. Very warm low temps early this morning around 80F, and many locations low temp today will likely occur during rainfall cooled air dropping temporarily into the 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

- Numerous to Widespread Showers and T'storms Saturday - Hot and Humid Conditions This Weekend

Saturday, the frontal boundary will sink into NE FL as weak high pressure moves north of the region into the upper OH/TN valleys. This will promote the highest chances for showers and T'storms more over NE FL as lift from the front, shortwave energy aloft, and high moisture content combine to create widespread showers and T'storms from mid to late morning persisting through the early evening hours with diminished coverage behind the front across SE GA. Winds will shift from westerly to WNW with skies staying mostly cloudy. Cloudy skies will limit the degree of low level instability compared to Friday, but gusty winds to 40 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours will be the main hazards. Some ponding of water and minor flooding potential expected for NE FL Saturday with slower storm motions pushing activity ESE. Highs on Saturday will be in the low 90s over NE FL and around 90 over SE GA.

Saturday night, skies will become partially clear with T'storms ending by 10PM and any lingering isolated showers ending a little after midnight, lows will fall to the lower 70s over SE GA and the mid 70s over NE FL and the coast. Light westerly winds will become calm inland.

Sunday, slightly drier air aloft will arrive across SE GA and into portions of NE FL as the front stalls near north central FL. Light westerly winds will allow the Gulf seabreeze more progress inland compared to the Atlantic seabreeze, with their movement inland kicking off widely scattered T'storms in the strong diurnal heating. Highs will be near normal around 90 over SE GA and the low 90s over NE FL. Heat index values will remain elevated 100-105 as dewpoints remain in the mid 70s over NE FL and the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat index values increasing to near Heat Advisory levels next week - Decreasing chances for showers Afternoon and Evening T'storms Sunday through next week

Monday, drier air will lower PWATs to 1.50 to 1.75 inches and along with low to mid level subsidence due to ridging building over the Gulf waters and FL peninsula as a fast moving trough moves north of the region. Widely isolated T'storm activity will be limited in the afternoon diurnal heating. Mostly sunny skies will allow for hot conditions with highs rising into the mid 90s for most of the area except over far inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley. Max heat index values will rise to 104-108, very close to heat advisory levels.

Tuesday, a front will approach from the north with WSW flow and an uptick in moisture allowing for widely scattered T'storms mostly over SE GA. But, skies will be mostly sunny and very hot conditions will continue with potential heat advisory conditions as values climb to 106-110 as dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s ahead of the front.

Wednesday and Thursday, the front will be stalled near or north of the Altamaha river with with more clouds and WSW flow, but also highs dialing back a little to the low to mid 90s, however elevated heat index values will persist 104-108. Uncertainty remains on exactly where the front stalls, so keeping scattered chances for T'storms at this time.

Temperatures will remain above normal next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

VFR at this time then showers and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage this TAF period, by the late morning into early afternoon hours so included VCTS and with sufficient confidence have a TEMPO TSRA group for all the TAF sites. Some of the storms may be strong with low vsby and gusty winds. Sfc winds will remain from the southwest with strengthening winds from the southwest and west by this afternoon close to 12-14 knots with gusts to 20 knots at times.

MARINE

A low pressure moving across the southeast states this morning will bring increasing southwest winds to area waters with small advisory conditions likely over the Georgia waters. The low pressure system will accelerate northeast this afternoon with another round of showers and storms, with a few stronger or severe storms possible mainly during the afternoon and evening. A trailing cold front from the low will move south into the area waters this weekend bringing additional rounds of thunderstorms. Weak high pressure ridge will slowly build in over the area waters early next week which may decrease coverage of storms.

Rip Currents:

Generally a low risk of rips expected into the weekend as surf remains in the 1-2 ft range with offshore flow continuing.

FIRE WEATHER

A front will sink towards the area today with numerous T'storms over Southeast GA and scattered T'storms across Northeast FL. Potential exists for isolated strong to severe T'storms across Southeast GA this morning into the afternoon hours. The front will move through Northeast FL Saturday with widespread showers and T'storms. The front will stall near north central or central Florida Sunday with scattered coverage of T'storms. Drier air will move into the region as ridging builds across the FL peninsula with only widely isolated T'storms Monday, with widely scattered T'storms into midweek.

Good level dispersions expected during each afternoon today into the weekend as more clouds limit mixing heights while transport winds decrease slightly as the front settles south of the area by Sunday.

Highs will decrease to the low 90s today into the weekend, but high humidity levels will continue. Temperatures will rise next week with drier conditions and limited chances for T'storms with potential heat advisory conditions Monday and Tuesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas that receive heavier rainfall may also experience patchy late-night and early-morning fog. T'storms will produce locally gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.

EQUIPMENT

The WSR-88D Radar located near the Moody AFB near Valdosta remains offline due to technical problems. Technicians are awaiting critical parts to restore functionality. During the outage please utilize other area radars...KJAX, KTLH, or KJGX.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 73 88 71 / 90 30 70 20 SSI 88 76 89 76 / 80 40 70 10 JAX 90 75 90 73 / 90 40 80 10 SGJ 93 76 90 75 / 60 30 90 20 GNV 91 75 90 73 / 60 40 90 20 OCF 92 75 90 74 / 50 40 90 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450- 470.