textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Continue this Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Surf Advisories NE FL Beaches Today. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Within the St. Johns River Basin. Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Along Portions of the Northeast FL Coast

- Strong Northeasterly Winds Develop Friday Night Along the I-95 Corridor. Moderate Tidal and Coastal Flooding Likely During the Upcoming Weekend. Gale Conditions Possible for the Local Atlantic Waters. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions with a High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards Continue with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding during high tide

- Lows in the 40s over inland SE GA/inland North FL again tonight

Northeast flow remains in place through tonight with a very dry air mass in place aloft (PWATs less than 0.5 inches). This will continue clear skies inland and periods of strato-cu clouds pushing onshore through the NE FL Atlantic Coastal counties before dissipating over the St. Johns River Basin to the south of JAX. Temps still slightly below normal with highs in the mid/upper 70s inland this afternoon and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast. Low temps under clear skies and light north winds will fall into the 40s again over inland SE GA and inland North FL to the west of JAX along the I-10 corridor and down into the Suwannee Valley, with 50s expected elsewhere for coastal SE GA and the rest of inland NE FL, and lower 60s for coastal NE FL in the onshore flow. Breezy NE winds this afternoon generally around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph along the Atlantic Coastal Counties and 10-15G20 mph over inland areas. Significant fog is not expected due to the dry air mass and light N-NE winds in place. Main hazards in the near term will continue to be coastal in nature with a high risk of rip currents, rough surf and minor tidal flooding along the St. Johns River Basin.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: Wednesday through Thursday night

- Coastal flooding expected due to onshore flow, along with continued high risk for rip currents

Elevated onshore flow pattern will continue through this period, due to high pressure to the north northwest, and low pressure to the northeast. It is expected to be dry this period. With a cooler and drier airmass in place, temperatures will continue to trend below average.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: Friday through Tuesday

- Strong onshore flow will lead to coastal flooding, beach hazards such as rip currents and high surf, and gusty onshore winds

High pressure will strengthen to the north northeast Friday through the weekend, leading to a stronger onshore flow pattern. Weak inverted troughs are expected to develop in the onshore flow pattern which will lead to an increased chance for mainly coastal showers. Once again, a myriad of coastal hazards can be expected this weekend due to this pattern, including a high rip current risks, high surf, coastal flooding and gusty winds possibly reaching wind advisory criteria.

The high will become centered closer to the area early next weekend as it weakens, which will result in the flow gradually becoming lighter.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

VFR will prevail for the TAFs this period. A few SCT-BKN strato-cu clouds at SGJ around 3500 feet this afternoon, otherwise SKC is expected for the most part this TAF period. NE winds at 10-13 knots this afternoon with gusts of 15-20 knots at times, highest for the Atlantic Coastal terminals. Any late night fog chances at inland TAF sites still too low for any inclusion at VQQ at this time. Continued VFR through the Wednesday morning hours through 18Z with any diurnal Cu development late in the TAF period remaining just FEW-SCT.

MARINE

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern states and a strong low pressure well offshore over the western Atlantic will continue to support hazardous marine conditions across the area waters this week. Rough seas will persist tonight before easing slowly through mid week as the low offshore moves slowly northward. Small craft advisory level conditions will continue into mid to late week. Another surge of Northeast winds to Gale force is expected to develop late Friday and continue into this weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continues much of this week given the elevated surf conditions and onshore flow. Though the high surf advisory will be eventually dropped over the area beaches over the next day or so, elevated surf will continue to be a problem the next few days for any swimmer entering the surf zone. Looking ahead, high surf advisory looks probable again for the weekend as northeast flow increases.

FIRE WEATHER

- Inland Se Ga Rh Falling To Around 30 Percent Wednesday - Patchy High Dispersions Ne Fl Wednesday - Patchy High Dispersions Se Ga And Ne Fl Friday - High Coastal Dispersions Over The Weekend

Onshore flow pattern will continue through the next week. This flow pattern will strengthen over the weekend. Chances for mainly coastal showers will also increase this weekend. With a weaker onshore flow the next few days, drier air will be able to filter into inland areas, where afternoon RH values will fall into the 30s.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected Tonight.

HYDROLOGY

The Satilla River at Atkinson is nearly steady today around 14 ft and a gradual fall anticipated after Wednesday. Thus, Minor Flooding will continue along portions of the lower Satilla River Basin through the end of the work week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Despite the relaxing of the NE winds slightly, they will remain high enough to continue Minor Tidal flooding of the St. Johns River Basin and the ICWW along the NE FL Coast to keep the Coastal Flood Advisory in place through the end of the week. Water levels generally peak up to 1.5 to 1.9 feet MHHW, with the higher end departures near and south of the Shands Bridge area.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another surge of northeast winds and the full moon on Sunday Oct 25 will push water levels up further, especially for the coast. Confidence is growing for moderate tidal flooding and coastal flood watches/warnings may be needed.

At the beaches, minor to moderate beach erosion will continue especially at times of high tide due to the rough surf and a gradual increase in tidal levels as we approach the full moon later this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 46 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 60 74 58 74 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 53 77 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 78 62 75 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 52 81 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 53 80 55 76 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-125- 132-137-138-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-454- 472-474. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ470.