textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning Fog Potential Daily Through Mid Week. Visibilities down to a quarter mile or less possible, especially inland areas

- Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious with outdoor fires check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Early this morning...Another round of dense fog expected during the overnight hours in the light/moist low level East-Southeast already in place. Not expecting conditions to be as widespread near zero visibilities that were seen Monday morning, but enough locations between the I-95 and US 301 corridors across NE FL/SE GA may fall to 1/4 mile or less to require a dense fog advisory for some areas before sunrise Tuesday morning. Low temps still generally in the mid/upper 50s inland and lower 60s along the Atlantic Coast. As a quasi warm frontal boundary lifts slowly northward early this morning it will trigger scattered showers and isolated storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters, but overall these will remain offshore, likely only pushing close to the SE GA beaches towards sunrise.

Today...Warm frontal boundary lifts north of the local area and near breezy south to southwest flow at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25 mph will push temps to near record warm levels into the lower to middle 80s over inland areas and around 80F at the Atlantic beaches. Likely not enough moisture available for any shower activity as rainfall chances will remain around 10 percent or less.

Tonight...Approaching frontal boundary from the west may push in some pre-frontal showers and isolated storms into inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL towards sunrise Wednesday morning, otherwise expect a light and moist SW flow off the NE Gulf which will shift the dense fog potential back towards inland NE FL and along the I-75 corridor as more of an advective dense/sea fog off the NE Gulf may push inland during the late evening and early overnight hours. The increasing pressure gradient ahead of the approaching frontal boundary should lead to early lifting and dissipation of fog after sunrise Wednesday morning. Overnight lows remain above normal levels in the upper 50s/near 60F over inland areas and lower/middle 60s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Wednesday, deep troughing will spill eastward across the eastern half of the US as a strong shortwave trough carves through the Great Lakes and OH valley. The upper level pattern will drive a strong cold front, in terms of temperature gradient, ESE through the area. The strongest mid to upper level support and broad scale lift will shift north of the region and limit storm chances to isolated coverage over NW portions of SE GA. Light rainfall amounts will be under a tenth to a quarter of an inch as the system moves quickly through the area and convergence along the front goes through a weakening phase. Ahead of the front, warm weather will remain briefly as southwest winds boosts highs to the low to mid 80s over NE FL with near 80 degrees along the coast.

Wednesday night, westerly winds will turn northwesterly after midnight as strong high pressure builds southeastward from the upper plains. Temperatures will fall off after midnight across SE GA and towards sunrise at the coast. Lows will sink to the low 40s over inland SE GA and the mid to upper 40s along I-10 into the Suwannee Valley with low/mid 50s along the NE FL coast and St Johns river and north central FL.

Thursday, strong high pressure will build in from the northwest. Brisk NW winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph will make for cool conditions despite skies turning becoming sunny by midday over SE GA and the afternoon over NE FL. Cold air advection will limit highs to the low 60s over SE GA and the mid/upper 60s over NE FL.

Thursday night, chilly conditions arrive as the high builds closer to the region from the northwest. Clear skies and cold air advection will drop lows to the low 30s over inland SE GA with a potential light freeze while less chilly south and east with mid to upper 30s west of the St Johns river over NE FL and low 40s from the river to the coast. WInd chill values will fall into the 20s north of I-10.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Friday, strong high pressure will shift from the mid MS valley to the TN/OH Valleys with brisk north winds persisting. Cold air advection will limit highs to the upper 50s over SE GA and the low 60s over NE FL, a solid 10 degrees below normal occurring under sunny skies.

Saturday morning, a potential frost may greet inland locations as north winds turn very light. Lows start in the low 30s over inland SE GA and mid 30s over the Suwannee Valley, and moderating to the low 40s to I-95 and mid/upper 40s at the coast as winds veer north northeast by early Saturday. By the afternoon, high pressure will shift east from the central appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coast. Weak inverted troughing will form near the coastal waters and serve to keep a tightened local pressure gradient over the area. Easterly low level flow will moderate low level moisture levels and bring Atlantic stratocumulus onshore. Highs will warm compared to Friday with mid/upper 60s over SE GA and low 70s returning to inland NE FL.

Sunday, high pressure will shift away to the northeast as a trough deepens over the western US with a storm system developing over the Rockies. Ridging aloft across the southeast states will allow highs to warm further into the low/mid 70s over SE GA and the upper 70s over NE FL with easterly winds and low level moisture increasing over the area. Inverted troughing will generate isolated/scattered coastal showers that will move onshore in the afternoon.

Monday, a strengthening ridge developing over south FL and the Bahamas will deflect a leading shortwave disturbance downstream of the western trough. This will keep our area warmer with most of the rain associated with the storm system moving northeast from the mid south to the Great Lakes staying to the north and west. Otherwise, isolated coastal showers will move onto the coastal zones with isolated to scattered afternoon showers over SE GA as warm front lifts from the Gulf coast. Highs will be only a little warmer compared to Sunday with mid/upper 70s over SE GA and around 80 over NE FL to lows 80s into north central FL.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Another round of fog/low stratus is on track tonight into Tuesday morning. Models have come into better agreement of IFR/LIFR conditions affecting all TAF sites between 06-13Z. Best chances for LIFR visibilities and ceilings will be the JAX metro sites and GNV. Fog/stratus should lift and dissipate by 14Z. VFR conds and South to SW flow at 5-10 knots this afternoon, with a weak SE sea breeze wind shift expected at CRG/SSI/SGJ by 18-20Z time frame. Expect VFR conds to continue through the evening hours on Tuesday, with any fog chances not expected until after the current 06Z TAF cycle.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure system will move northeast of the area today resulting in breezy winds veering gradually to the southeast and south by Wednesday. A strong cold front approaches from the west late Wednesday. The front will press south of the local waters Wednesday night into Thursday, trailed by northwest to north winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will continue on Friday and possibly into Saturday as winds shift to the northeast and east.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents as surf/breakers slowly build into the 2-3 ft range.

DISCUSSION

AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.. CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

High pressure will move northeast of the region today after foggy conditions to start the day as a warm front lifts north across the area with no rain and winds become southerly. A cold front will approach from the northwest Wednesday morning with increasing breezy southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. Scattered showers will spread into the Suwannee Valley and inland Southeast GA with afternoon isolated T'storms, but less chances eastward to the coast as the showers dissipate late in the day along the front, limiting total rainfall amounts. Increasing southwesterly surface and transport winds will produce areas of high daytime dispersions on Wednesday.

Much drier airmass arrives Thursday and persists through Friday as strong high pressure builds from the northwest. Very low dewpoints into the upper teens/low 20s over inland Southeast GA and into the Suwannee Valley of Northeast FL will create critically low Min RH values 20-25 percent Thursday and Friday afternoons. While winds appear marginal 10-15 mph, gusts may exceed 25 mph at times and support Elevated fire danger conditions Thursday. Southeast Georgia 10 hour fuels appear to not reach thresholds as well, staying well above 6 percent.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Areas of dense fog will become widespread from I-95 to I-75 in Northeast FL and near the coast to US 441 in Southeast GA. Visibility will lower to a quarter of a mile. Ahead of the approaching front, areas of fog, locally dense, will develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across the I-75 corridor to near highway 301 over Northeast FL.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

TUE 11/25 WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX) 85/1992 84/1946 Craig Exec Arpt (CRG) 83/1992 83/2020 Gainesville, FL (GNV) 85/1955 84/1973 Alma, Georgia (AMG) 83/1986 84/1973

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs

AMG 60 77 40 61 / 30 40 0 0 SSI 63 79 47 64 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 61 83 47 66 / 10 20 0 0 SGJ 62 82 53 67 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 59 82 51 68 / 0 20 0 0 OCF 59 82 54 68 / 0 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.