textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards this Weekend and Next Week. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Wind Advisory - Wind Gusts of 35-40 mph at Coastal NE FL Locations from this. Gale Warning for All Atlantic Coastal Waters from this morning through Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Possible Along the Atlantic Coast, ICWW & St. Johns River

- Basin Sunday into early next week. Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide

UPDATE

Wind advisory remains in place this evening and overnight through Sunday early evening along the NE FL coast with an expansion later this evening to the immediate SE GA coast after 11PM. Wind gusts have recently increased along the NE FL coast east of I-95, with most gusts between 35 to 40 mph. Faster winds most recently observed at St Augustine CMAN site at the St Augustine Beach Pier included a gust to 45 mph and at the Marineland Weatherstem unit sustained 40 mph gusting to 47 mph.

Have increased winds and wind gusts up slightly along the immediate coast overnight as tightening pressure gradient should increase gusts to 40-45 mph going into the overnight hours and expanding along the SE GA coast due to strong high pressure emerging over the central Appalachians continental divide and wedging down the Southeast coast. Meanwhile, Winds inland had dropped off some to 8-12 mph just before sunset, but should increase through the night to 12-18 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph and near 35 along I-95 and the St Johns river. Clear skies and cold air advection will being a fall chill to inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley with lows in the upper 50s, contrasting with low 60s along the first coast where few to scattered Atlantic stratocumulus clouds will move onshore at times and winds will move in fro the warmer waters.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- Gusty winds, especially along the coast

Cold and dry air advection is in full swing across the area this afternoon, with temperatures mainly in the 60s to low 70s and dew points as low as around 40 out in inland GA. This trend will continue through the afternoon and evening hours into tonight, especially with a bit of a reinforcing secondary front/trough swinging through this evening and tonight. Despite clearing from northwest to southeast through the evening, temps will struggle to rise more than a few degrees for most thanks to the cold air advection, especially the further south and east you go where thicker clouds hang on longer as well as a few sprinkles/light showers through late afternoon. Temps are holding in the 60s to low 70s as of midday, which will essentially hold true for daytime high temps.

Tonight will remain breezy thanks to the above mentioned secondary front, especially east of the I-95 corridor and at the coast where this will be felt the most. Given latest guidance and probabilities, have opted to issue a Wind Advisory for coastal areas beginning this evening and persisting into Sunday as well, where more frequent gusts around 40 mph are expected. This may need to be expanded further inland depending on latest trends. Continuing cold air advection with clear to partly cloudy skies will allow one of the coldest nights in some time. Have trended more towards Hi-Res/MOS guidance for lows tonight, which are forecast to range from the upper 40s over inland southeast GA and upper Suwannee Valley to the 50s to low 60s south and east.

SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Moderate to strong north to northeast winds expected with gusts to around 30-40 mph Sunday into Monday. Strongest gusts mainly for the coastal areas.

- Coastal & Marine Hazards To Continue into mid week with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding.

- Below normal temperatures this period.

Predominantly dry weather conditions will continue through Sunday and Monday as the dry air mass holds over the region as the tight pressure gradient produces gusty onshore northeasterly winds through the forecast period, resulting in wind speeds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Wind advisory conditions (for gusts of 40+mph ) are possible for the coast and St Johns River area on Sunday, and mainly confined along the coast for Monday. High temperatures for the end of the weekend will initially be in the mid to upper 60s for southeast Georgia and in the lower 70s for northeast Florida, warming into the lower to mid 70s area-wide for the beginning of next week. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for southeast Georgia and in the 50s and lower 60s for northeast Florida.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty coastal winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected Tuesday through Friday

Dry weather with mostly clear skies will continue through Friday as drier air along with high pressure ridging situated to the north persists over the region. High rip current risk, high and rough surf, gusty winds, along with minor tidal flooding will carry over through this period as onshore north-northeasterly flow maintains through the forecast period. Temperatures will continue to be below the seasonal average through the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions expected overnight with mostly clear skies as few clouds drift across the coast. After a slight lull in breezy conditions at inland sites JAX, VQQ, and GNV, very breezy conditions will resume after 02Z from north to south as high pressure spills over the central appalachians and wedges down the southeastern seaboard tonight into Sunday with increasing winds along the coast 20-25 knots with gusts to 30-35 knots.

Skies will be mostly sunny Sunday with broken to scattered ceilings moving to the coastal terminals after 18Z, with MVFR ceilings at SGJ after 20Z. Inland winds will remain near 20 knots gusting to 25-30 knots much of Sunday.

MARINE

Strong high pressure will build to the north tonight through Sunday with Gale conditions over the waters. An area of low pressure is expected to develop to the northeast of the region Sunday keeping a locally tight pressure gradient over the region and continuing strong onshore winds and building seas. The low will remain northeast of the area east of the Carolina coast as high pressure ridging weakens to the north with Small Craft Advisories are likely to persist into next week.

Rip Currents: High Risk through at least Monday with strengthening onshore flow. This may persist through much of next week. Rough surf is also expected.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions This Weekend

ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY - Night

A strong but mostly dry cold front moves through tonight and through Saturday morning, ushering in a dry and windy north to northeasterly flow this weekend and into early next week. This will result in good dispersions this weekend, which could be high at times during the afternoon/evening in some patchy areas. Dispersions will also be elevated near the coastline each night this weekend thanks to persistent breezy onshore flow. This general pattern will continue, albeit become a bit weaker, for much of next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Fog formation is not expected through at least the next several days.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and throughout the St. Johns River basin beginning on Sunday afternoon and likely continuing through at least the middle portion of next week. The bigger problem may be significant beach erosion likely around times of high tide at the northeast FL beaches beginning on Sunday, where breakers will build to the 8-10 foot range, with these high surf conditions expected to continue through at least Tuesday. Minor to moderate beach erosion will be possible around times of high tide at the southeast GA beaches, especially from late Sunday through Tuesday, where breakers will likely build to the 5-7 foot range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 47 66 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 55 70 57 72 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 52 68 58 71 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 63 73 66 73 / 10 20 20 10 GNV 53 71 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 56 74 61 76 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472- 474.