textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Fog Potential Each Morning through Wednesday

- High Risk of Rip Currents Rest of Today.

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues.

- Dry & Warmer This Week leads to increased fire weather concerns. Use extreme caution when outdoors and camping. Please heed burn bans where they are in effect.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Currents continues at NE FL/SE GA beaches

- Locally dense fog possible late tonight/early Monday morning

High pressure ridging continues today, which is starting to orient more northeast to southwest across the region, and therefore more of a east-southeast to southeast wind direction is being observed today. PWATs are below 0.75 inches and therefore rain chances are near zero despite the continuing onshore flow, with just a few diurnal clouds through this evening, mainly towards the I-95 corridor. The main concern today continues to be a higher risk of rip currents, especially at northeast FL beaches. Highs in the 80s will be common again today, except near the immediate coast where upper 70s are expected.

Tonight, just enough low level moisture will be in place for some patchy to areas of fog expected across the interior, with most high res guidance suggesting interior GA having the highest potential, especially for locally dense fog. Otherwise, mostly clear besides a some higher clouds starting to fill in from the west overnight, with lows in the 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy fog each morning, which may become locally dense. - Dry weather persists

Ridging aloft will dominate Monday through Tuesday night, with only a weak passing upper level shortwave on Monday and Monday night bringing some occasional high clouds. Otherwise, moisture remains very limited (PWATs below 0.75 inches) and will continue the dry weather pattern with additional subsidence due to the ridge aloft. At nighttime, the light to calm winds and mostly clear skies will support late night and early morning fog, but should be fairly shallow and transient given the lack of low level moisture. Atlantic sea breezes expected each afternoon with speeds up to 10-15G20mph. High temperatures will run above normal, with inland temps in the upper 80s, with potential for about 90 on Tuesday. Coastal highs will be limited to upper 70s to around 80 both days due to onshore flow. Low temps moderate only slightly with mid 50s inland and closer to 60 at the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry weather - Record highs likely - Fire weather concerns remain

Mid to upper level ridging dominates Wednesday into early Thursday, promoting continued dry conditions. By Thursday into Thursday night, a dampening shortwave trough moving through the Appalachians and the southeast CONUS briefly suppresses the ridge southeastward, though limited moisture and weak forcing will keep things dry. The ridge quickly rebuilds overhead Friday in the wake of the shortwave, bringing back large scale subsidence and above normal highs.

By the weekend, increasing height falls to the west associated with an approaching mid/upper level trough begin to flatten the ridge and push it southward. This results in increasing southwest flow through the column and some weak warm advection. A weakening cold front may move into our area Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, but with limited upper support and moisture, precip chances remain low.

At the surface, high pressure anchored to the east will maintain a general southeast and south flow. The Atlantic sea breeze should be moderate to strong each afternoon, though probably a bit weaker Sunday as the flow begins to change ahead of the front. The higher than normal heights will support highs near or exceeding record highs each day during this period, with lower to mid 90s probable. A check on ensemble data shows 20-30 percent of max temps exceeding 95 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Lows trend a little warmer than they have been, with upper 50s to lower 60s transitioning to lower to mid 60s by Sunday morning.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

VFR is expected to prevail for most if not all of the forecast period at this time. Southeasterly breezes around 10 kts will higher gusts at times will ease later this evening. The only other operational concern through the forecast period will be some FG/BR potential early Monday morning. Confidence remains too low at this time with probabilities currently under 10 percent at all terminals except at VQQ, which have included MVFR vsbys accordingly.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly over the next several days. Elevated seas today over the area waters, mostly from east swells, will gradually subside through this week as well.

Rip Currents and Surf:

East swells and onshore flow will persist high risk of rip currents at area beaches today with surf heights around 2-4 ft on average. The risk will likely drop to moderate for at least southeast GA beaches Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Minrh Values Below 30 Percent Common Inland Se Ga This Period - High Dispersions Inland Rest Of Today - Patchy High Dispersions Possible Ne Fl Tuesday

High pressure will prevail through the upcoming week, with dry weather continuing. Min RH values from the mid 20s to lower 30s percent range the next few days inland areas through Tuesday. In these areas, sustained winds will likely be below 15 mph. Closer to the coast, RH values will be higher but easterly winds may be breezy at times up to 15 mph due to the Atlantic sea breeze.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog late tonight and early Monday, and again early Tuesday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001

April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 86 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 61 77 62 78 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 57 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 55 87 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 55 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.