textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extreme Drought Expanding Across our Region. Moderate Wildfire Danger Throughout the Region. Lightning from Storms on Sunday Could Cause Ignitions

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Sunday through Monday. Localized Heavy Downpours, Especially Along & North of I-10

- A Few Strong/Severe TStorms & Windy Conditions Possible

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Through Saturday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Northeasterly flow persists through the rest of the day as high pressure remains along the eastern seaboard and a coastal trough over the offshore waters. Similar pattern in temperatures Today as was observed on Thursday with onshore flow continuing to advect cooler air onshore. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s for locations north of Waycross, GA and along the coast. The rest of the area will be in the lower to mid 70s. By the evening, clearer skies over SE GA will allow for temperatures to be cooler than NE FL. Overnight Lows will dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s across SE GA, with mid 40s to upper 40s across NE FL, the upper 40s to lower 50s across coastal locations.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

On Saturday, surface high pressure will shift of the coast of the Carolinas and into the western Atlantic slowly veering winds from east to southeast. Meanwhile, a potent upper shortwave trough and its associated surface low move through the southern Plains and begin to lift the stalled frontal boundary over southern FL back northward as a warm front. Temperatures will trend around seasonable with highs ranging from the low-mid 60s along the SE GA coast to the upper 70s along the I-75 corridor. Lows Saturday night will be more mild as winds turn south-southeasterly, with widespread lows in the 50s expected.

On Sunday, the warm sector develops as the warm front lifts across the area. The surface low pressure will slowly weaken as it migrates across the SE US dragging its cold front across the Gulf coast states. Southwesterly winds strengthen ahead of the system potentially producing wind gusts up to 30-35 mph. Will need to monitor if we get close to Wind Advisory conditions (>=40 mph). Strong warm air advection will push highs to near record for NE FL with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Moisture increases across the area with PWATs in the 1.3-1.6 in. range. Pre-frontal showers with embedded thunderstorms spread in from the northwest late Sunday morning and overspread the area Sunday afternoon into night. This will bring beneficial rain with rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range. Best instability continues to be over far SE GA to inland NE FL, or basically influenced by Gulf moisture in the southwest flow ahead of the front with MUCAPE of about 300-450 J/kg. A few thunderstorms could become strong to marginally severe given robust bulk shear values (40-60 kt). Stronger storms may be capable of producing downburst winds of 45-55 mph and small hail. SPC has placed much of the area in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms for Sunday. Instability will fade on Sunday night, but a few rounds of downpours and embedded elevated thunderstorms should continue through the night and the early morning hours on Monday. Min temps will only fall into the 50s Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The potent mid to level shortwave trough will be pushing just east of the area Monday morning, with the cold front extending southward from a low pressure system just off the southeast U.S. coast. Some post-frontal troughing from southwest to northeast over northeast FL and showery precip is expected to continue Monday. We kept a low mention of t-storms over northeast FL mainly for the morning hours, with lapse rates likely to be a bit steep, thereby supporting some instability. Precip chances should diminish late Monday aftn to evening. The front should make it well south of the area by midday Monday. Cloudy skies will clear from north to south Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday, with sfc high pressure building in from the north. Breezy northeast winds Tuesday will keep the coast cooler with highs in the 60s while inland is the 70s for highs.

Surface high pressure will further build into the area Wednesday into Thursday with a much drier airmass and dry conditions once again. The ridge drops south of the area by later in the week. This should result in a warming trend with highs Wednesday and Thursday above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overall, lows will be above average during the long term.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions persists for majority of TAF period. Breezy NE winds along coastal sites with occasional gusts up to 15-19kt, with weaker winds for inland sites. Winds will begin to wane around 23Z/00Z. Some patchy fog may develop along along inland locations around 09Z to 12Z.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will persist along the southeastern seaboard through tonight as a frontal boundary remains stalled just south of the area. A northeast to easterly onshore flow will persist through Saturday. High pressure then moves east of the region Saturday Night and Sunday as a frontal system approaches the area Sunday Night, moving across the area waters through Monday. Showers as well as isolated thunderstorms will be expected Sunday Night through Monday as the system moves through. South-southwesterly winds increase ahead of the front to small craft advisory conditions over the offshore waters Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure ridging will then build back down the southeastern coast on Tuesday before weakening by mid week.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for all beaches with a persistent onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER

- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA and Northeast Florida This Afternoon - High Daytime Inland Dispersions Sunday

Long durations of critically low relative humidity values are forecast this afternoon for inland portions of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Low-level moisture gradually increases this weekend. Otherwise, surface and transport winds will become breezy at times from the northeast along the coast and shifting inland toward US 301 by this evening. Surface and transport winds will shift to easterly by Saturday, with breezy conditions developing during the afternoon hours. These breezy winds will combine with elevated mixing heights to create good daytime dispersion values.

Increasing cloud cover is expected Sunday ahead of cold front, with chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. This activity will then overspread the rest of our area Sunday night, possibly continuing into Monday morning. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible. Strong transport winds, breezy surface speeds, and elevated mixing heights will create high daytime dispersion values on Sunday throughout northeast and north central Florida, with marginally high values possible for southeast Georgia. Beneficial rainfall overspreads the region Sunday into Monday. Rainfall amounts of up to 1-2 inches, with locally higher totals possible.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days. Localized visibility reductions are possible during the predawn and early morning hours for locations near active or ongoing wildfires or prescribed burns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 37 70 50 75 / 0 0 10 90 SSI 47 63 52 70 / 0 0 10 70 JAX 45 71 53 80 / 0 0 0 60 SGJ 50 70 56 77 / 0 0 10 50 GNV 45 77 57 81 / 0 0 0 60 OCF 47 78 57 82 / 0 0 0 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.