textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal & Marine Hazards This Week. Coastal Flood Warning Widespread Moderate Level Tidal flooding at the

- Coast, Intracoastal Waterway & St. Johns River Basin through Wednesday. Extended duration tidal flooding St. Johns basin through the weekend. Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through the Week. High Surf & High Risk for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through Friday. Gusty Coastal Winds through Friday 25 - 35 mph

- Isolated Thunderstorms Potential this Weekend

UPDATE

Occasional showers from the ongoing northeasterly wind event at the Florida coast will be more isolated tonight as some drier air tries to make a push southward and high pressure weakens slightly. This has also continued to drop our winds accordingly, though breezy/gusty conditions near the Florida coast will remain persistent tonight, especially from near Saint Augustine southward. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast tonight. Lows in the 50s and 60s will be common, though far inland southeast GA could get a few locations in the upper 40s where drier air is in place.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- Elevate coastal winds to continue, with coastal hazards continuing

High pressure to the north will build closer to the area, and slowly weaken through Tonight. As the high weakens, the inverted trough to the southeast will weaken as well. Winds will become fairly light well inland Tonight, while remaining elevated and gusty closer to the coast. Rain shower chances will persist over north central FL, and coastal NE FL south of Jacksonville Beach.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Coastal Flood Warnings Remaining in Effect along the Northeast FL Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate Tidal Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High Tide for these Locations.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf Advisories Continuing on Tuesday. A High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents will Persist at All Area Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach Erosion.

Onshore northeasterly and easterly flow will persist through midweek with wind speeds building into Wednesday as high the local pressure gradient becomes tightened between high pressure ridging to the north and the sharpening trough situated to the southeast over the Bahamas. Predominantly dry weather is anticipated for inland northeast Florida and southeast Georgia with chances for rainfall increasing for coastal southeast Florida counties as high pressure ridging to the north starts to flatten and the trough shifts northward, bringing in a more moist easterly flow across Florida. High temperatures through midweek will rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will warm between Tuesday and Wednesday, with min temps rising into the lower to mid 60s for southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 60s for southeast Georgia, and in the lower 70s for coastal Florida counties.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate Tidal Flooding Likely During Times of High Tide Within the St. Johns River Basin. Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Will Continue Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion Continuing at Area Beaches.

Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the south this weekend as high pressure moves off to the northeast and a short wave trough, ahead of an advancing cold front, presses in from out of the west bringing in lessening onshore winds and increased chances for showers and storms throughout the forecast area on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will trend near and slightly above average for the end of the week and through into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Elevated northeasterly flow continues overnight and into Monday, with the main operational concerns overnight being breezy winds of 10+ knots and low stratus/isolated SHRA. These restrictions will mainly be found at coastal terminals, mainly SGJ. Winds will pick up again diurnally on Tuesday, though overall slightly weaker than Monday, and low stratus is expected to be less prevalent.

MARINE

The region will be between high pressure to the north and an inverted trough to the southeast through Thursday. The high will weaken to the northeast later in the week, along with the trough to the southeast, so conditions will improve toward the weekend.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Risk of rip currents throughout this week, and continuing this weekend. High surf to continue through Thursday night.

FIRE WEATHER

ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND - Along The I-95 Corridor Through Thursday Night

Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue to occasionally move onshore along the northeast Florida coast this week, with a few showers moving inland past the Interstate 95 corridor to around U.S. Highway 301. Otherwise, dry weather will continue during the next several days for southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. A drier air mass moving across inland southeast Georgia may drop humidity values to near critical thresholds for locations north of Waycross on Tuesday afternoon.

Strong northeasterly surface and transport winds will continue along the northeast Florida coastal counties today, with breezy conditions elsewhere yielding good daytime dispersion values area-wide. Breezy surface and transport winds during the overnight hours will result in elevated nighttime dispersion values for locations along and east of I-95 each night through at least Thursday. Breezy northeasterly transport winds on Tuesday will create fair to good daytime dispersion values, with a slight increase in speeds on Wednesday yielding good daytime dispersion values area-wide.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Strong north-northeasterly winds will continue to combine with the highest astronomical tides of the year (Hunter's moon) to yield moderate tidal flooding today around times of high tide, with a few spots possibly touching reaching major flooding. Peak water levels are anticipated to be 2.5 to 3.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of high tide today, with water levels then generally reaching 2-3 feet above MHHW from tonight through at least Wednesday night. Northeast winds will remain breezy on Tuesday and will likely increase again on Wednesday and Thursday, with high astronomical tides due to the lunar perigee maintaining moderate tidal flooding this week within the St. Johns River basin, with minor to moderate flooding continuing during times of high tide along the Atlantic coast.

As astronomical tide levels increase, the combination of the high surf and water levels will create significant beach erosion at area beaches. The long duration of this strong onshore wind event will likely produce major beach erosion during each high tide cycle through at least Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 50 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 73 63 75 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 60 77 65 78 / 0 10 10 0 SGJ 67 78 71 79 / 20 30 10 20 GNV 59 81 64 81 / 0 0 10 20 OCF 62 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-124- 125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for GAZ154- 166. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.