textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through the Weekend

- Locally Dense Inland Fog Inland this Morning and Sunday Morning

- Near Record Highs Possible Today and Sunday

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible from Sunday Afternoon through Monday

- Strong Onshore Winds & Small Craft Advisory Conditions Next Week

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches This Weekend.

- Near Record Inland High Temperatures This Afternoon

- Patchy inland fog this morning and again Sunday Morning.

Today will be much drier than yesterday, especially inland where numerous thunderstorms developed yesterday. A drying southerly flow will stabilize convective potential with a persisting pattern consisting of a surface ridge axis extending across the area. Southeasterly flow and thermal trough inland will push another breezy Atlantic sea breeze inland this afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph accompanying it. Though chances are limited (rain chance < 15%), there is a chance for shallow, isolated showers developing along the sea breeze late in the afternoon but thunderstorms are unlikely.

Southerly flow and deep mixing will boost inland temperatures toward near record levels this afternoon with readings near 90 degrees. Given the sea breeze the coast will be about 8-10 degrees cooler.

Tonight, upper flow pattern will buckle as an upstream upper trough and attendant surface cold front approaches. This will lead to a light southerly boundary layer wind and should mute fog development, however, patchy and shallow fog still will be possible where surface winds trend calm.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm potential Sunday and Monday

-Near Record Highs Possible Sunday

Warm SW flow develops ahead of a cold front moving through the SE US on Sunday. Daytime highs will rise into the mid-upper 80s with some locations possibly reaching near record around 90 across north central FL on Sunday afternoon. With the SW flow, the Gulf sea breeze will shift well inland and merge with the Atlantic sea breeze along the I-95 corridor in the late afternoon and evening. Best chances for showers and storms will be along the I-95 corridor with the merger and inland SE GA ahead of the front. Convection along the front gradually wanes as it shifts southeastward through the area Sunday night. Overnight lows on Sunday will range from the upper 50s in SE GA to the low 60s in NE FL. The cold front will continue to push through NE FL and into central FL on Monday. Scattered showers will be present for much of the day along the front as it pushes through, increasing to numerous across north central FL by the afternoon hours. A few embedded thunderstorms will develop mainly in NE FL due to the proximity to the frontal boundary. Cooler temperatures on Monday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s/60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Strong onshore flow next week, with elevated winds along the coast and inland locations

A stronger upper level shortwave will cross over the SE US and shift the front further southward on Tuesday. Showers across NE FL on Tuesday gradually wane as the front moves away. Behind the front, strong high pressure builds down along the southeastern seaboard through Thursday bringing a surge of ENE winds. Wind gusts could potentially reach 30-40 mph across coastal locations. Isolated to scattered showers will develop in the onshore flow. Temperatures will be below seasonable through the week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s/60s.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

LIFR conds around sunrise at GNV, but just brief periods of MVFR fog possible at other terminals through 13Z. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions and southeasterly winds turning easterly with the breezy Atlantic sea breeze is expected today. Similar to the last few days, anticipate gusts around 20 knots with the sea breeze this afternoon. Winds will gradually weaken and veer southeasterly to southerly after 00z with VFR conds through the evening hours. Some limited fog potential late tonight again at inland terminals and LIFR conds possible at VQQ with MVFR conds possible at GNV, fog chances too low to include at the coastal terminals for now through 12Z Sunday.

MARINE

Ahead of an approaching cool front, onshore winds will veer southerly across the waters tonight through Sunday. The slowing front will gradually move north to south through the waters Sunday night bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms as the front stalls through Monday. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build to the north resulting in strengthening northeasterly winds Monday night and the onset of a multiday period of strong onshore winds throughout next week, likely requiring an extended Small Craft Advisory. Much stronger high pressure will wedge along the coast Wednesday resulting in further strengthening and potential for gales and seas building potentially up to 15 feet across the waters. As high pressure breaks away from the eastern seaboard late in the week, onshore winds will begin to relax.

Rip Currents:

Latest buoys indicate a gradual decrease in wave heights over the last 12 hours, with breakers generally between 2-4 feet this afternoon. This afternoon will increase to a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents as the sea breeze develops. Increasing longshore winds/currents will increase breakers by a foot or so Sunday which may be enough to tip the scales to a low-end High Risk of Rip Currents, more so along the NE FL beaches. For now, Moderate risk of rips are expected today and Sunday. It is very likely, that surf will become life-threatening next week as strong onshore winds and high surf develops.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Afternoon Dispersions North-Central Fl Today - High Afternoon Dispersions Inland Se Ga Sunday

High pressure will shift further into the Atlantic today continuing south-southeasterly winds. Slightly drier air today will drop inland Min RHs into the mid-upper 30s and keep rain chances low. A few showers will be possible over far interior SE GA late this afternoon. Winds shift to southwesterly and increase ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday. Elevated mixing heights inland and increasing south-southwesterly winds will result in generally good dispersions with areas of high dispersions this weekend. The Gulf sea breeze will shift far inland and merge with the Atlantic sea breeze late Sunday afternoon bringing showers and storms. Beneficial rain then returns with the frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. Volatile fuel beds, due to the exceptional/extreme drought, combined with breezy winds could lead to erratic fire behavior.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog potential each morning this weekend.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures for Saturday 4/4:

KJAX: 90/2011 KCRG: 88/2012 KGNV: 91/1974 KAMG: 90/1963

Record High Temperatures for Sunday 4/5:

KJAX: 91/2017 KCRG: 91/2017 KGNV: 91/2025 KAMG: 90/2023

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 62 84 58 / 10 10 40 50 SSI 78 64 80 62 / 0 0 40 60 JAX 85 62 88 62 / 0 0 40 40 SGJ 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 40 40 GNV 89 60 89 62 / 0 0 20 20 OCF 89 62 88 62 / 0 0 20 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.