textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Continue Today, With Breezy &

- Dense Smoke and Fog Impacting Visibility In Portions of Southeast

- GA and Northeast FL. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality | Monitor Using airnow.gov

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Today

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

-Thunderstorm chances today and tonight

There are prospects for scattered showers and a few storms today thanks to a surge in moisture/higher instability and a shortwave trough moving across the region. Have used a combination of MOS and NBM guidance for chances of showers and thunderstorms today, which should mainly be starting in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. Surface triggers will be the east coast sea breeze and fairly diffuse troughing over southeast GA where the chances are up to 40 percent. Main threat from storms will be some gusty winds and lightning and can't totally rule out a strong storm near the east coast and over interior southeast GA. Activity will linger into tonight, while intensity of the showers and storms gradually wane with loss of heating, but the shortwave energy will aid in lift for a time overnight. The cold front that is entering the southeast U.S. is forecast to move into central GA and AL by early Sunday morning so likely not have a direct impact for now on the general forecast.

High temperatures in the 85-90 deg range today, just out of reach probably for any records. See climate records below. Lows for tonight in the lower 60s expected with a few mid 60s possible near the coast. Patchy fog and low stratus are expected inland this morning and possibly again Sunday morning over the western zones.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances continue Sunday - Drier and cooler for most Monday

A cold front will slowly drop southward throughout the day on Sunday, crossing the FL/GA border Sunday Night before settling south of the area on Monday. Sunday will feature the highest chances for showers and t'storms across the area over the last week or more as the front slowly drops southward throughout the day, especially across northeast FL where more daytime heating occurs ahead of the boundary. Widely scattered to scattered showers and t'storms are expected to develop during the afternoon, with the best chance of more enhancement being in the vicinity of the nearly pinned sea breeze. PWATs will be rather lackluster around 1.25 inches, though with some drier pockets of air lingering aloft, any taller t'storms that do develop will have potential for some downbursts up to 40- 50mph. Highs on Sunday will remain very warm with mid to upper 80s expected area-wide.

Some convection may linger into the late evening hours Sunday Night before waning overnight, as the frontal boundary continues to drop just south of the area by Monday. A breezier onshore northeast flow will develop on Monday as high pressure ridging builds into the region, especially near the coasts and St. Johns River Basin where winds in the 10-20mph range are expected with gusts up to 25-30 mph at times. This will keep temps generally in the mid 70s to low 80s for these areas, with mid 80s more common further inland. Areas furthest south closer to the frontal boundary over central FL will hang onto about a 15-20% chance of showers or an isolated t'storm, but otherwise expecting the rest of the region to remain dry. Lows Monday Night will be generally cooler, in the mid to upper 50s to near 60 inland and low 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

-A more active pattern looking likely mid to late week

High pressure ridging will hold strong through Tuesday before breaking down and shifting further eastward mid week, as another frontal boundary drops southward towards the area. There is still moderate forecast uncertainty regarding how far southward the boundary progresses towards/into the area, however, at this time, it does look to be far enough south for periods of showers and t'storms to affect at least interior southeast GA for mid to late week as several frontal waves move along the boundary. Chances look a little bit higher for this activity to reach northeast FL later in the week at this time, however, expecting some variation in guidance to continue through at least the next several days, with details and predictability to become clearer and more narrowed down as we get closer. Temperatures trend mainly near to above climo for the long term period.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Potential for convection to develop for coastal and Jax metro sites this afternoon with VCSH and VCTS starting around 16z-18z and then clearing out from affected sites by around 00z-03z. Predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated for a majority of the day, however potential for obscuration caused smoke from wild fires may affect SSI early in the day prior to sea breeze winds pressing inland by around 16z-18z. Winds will become more mild and variable in the evening and overnight hours with a potential for patchy fog affecting the more inland sites, GNV and VQQ near the end of the forecast period.

MARINE

High pressure situated offshore of the southeastern states today will continue to gradually weaken as it shifts eastward. A cold front will then enter the southeastern states later today, possibly helping to develop scattered late afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms across our local waters this weekend. This cold front will cross our local waters on Sunday night, with low pressure along this front strengthening somewhat off the Carolina coast by Monday. Winds will shift to northerly on Sunday night and then northeasterly by Monday morning, with Caution conditions likely due to breezy speeds and building seas through Monday evening. Weak high pressure will then briefly build over our local waters on Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front will then approach our area from the northwest late next week.

Rip Currents:

A lower-end moderate risk of rip currents will likely persist today despite the fairly low wave height of about 2 feet. A lower risk is anticipated Sunday though still may be some locally moderate rip current risk based on NWPS forecasts. Strengthening northeasterly winds and building surf heights will likely bring a moderate to possibly high rip current risk for our local beaches on Monday into Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Over The Weekend

Though high pressure hangs on today, a continued increase in moisture ahead of an approaching frontal boundary today will not only increase RH values slightly, but also bring chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm across much of the area today. The main focus areas will be interior GA during the evening hours, and near the I-95 corridor during the afternoon and evening near the sea breeze. Mixing will remain very good and with an uptick in transport winds will result in widespread high dispersions inland today. Chances for showers continue tonight and through Sunday as well as the front slowly progresses southward. Sunday will feature areas of high dispersions inland once again in addition to the shower and storm chances. Conditions will be dry to most if not all of the area Monday and Tuesday before chances for rain increase mid to late week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog along and near the I75 corridor this morning. Smoke from area fires will result in reduced visibilities, especially during the nighttime and morning hours.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites today:

April 25th: JAX 92/1958 CRG 91/2006 GNV 93/1896 AMG 91/1958

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 88 62 85 61 / 50 60 40 20 SSI 83 66 82 64 / 30 40 50 30 JAX 89 63 88 63 / 30 20 50 20 SGJ 86 64 85 65 / 30 20 50 30 GNV 89 62 88 63 / 20 10 50 20 OCF 89 63 86 65 / 20 10 50 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ021-120- 220. GA...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ136- 152-153-162-163. MARINE...None.