textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Breezy Northeast Winds Today. Small Craft Advisory In Effect through Thursday. High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches through Friday. High Surf Conditions, with breakers up to around 8 feet Today. Rip Currents Risk Remains Moderate to High This Weekend

- Drier This Week, Increased TStorm Chances Next Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Elevated and breezy winds Today

Dry conditions and breezy northeasterly winds continue into tonight. The area remains between high pressure over the Ohio river valley and low pressure off the southeastern seaboard maintaining a tight local pressure gradient. Drier air continues to move in from the northeast with current GOES satellite PWAT estimates in the 0.5-1.5 inch range from north to south. Dry air and increasing subsidence will inhibit any convection developing today. Winds gradually subside for inland areas later tonight. Due to breezy northeast flow, highs will range from the upper 70s along the coast to low-mid 80s further inland and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast to upper 50s to mid 60s inland.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Rough Surf and a High Risk of Rip Currents Thursday to Friday. - Mostly dry conditions

High pressure conditions with a prevailing onshore flow will be in place over the forecast area on Thursday and Friday resulting in breezy onshore winds, partly cloudy skies, and predominantly dry weather conditions. A warming trend will carry over through the end of the week with daily high temps rising from out of the lower to mid 80s on Thursday up into the mid to upper 80s for inland areas on Thursday. Overnight low temperatures will similarly warm through the period with min temps rising into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for coastal areas going into the weekend.

The main story will be the rough surf and life-threatening rip currents at all beaches, though the surf heights will be on a lowering trend overall.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk of Rip Currents May Continue This Weekend.

- Gradual Warm-Up Forecast through the Weekend with Dry Weather Likely to Continue.

- Better Rain chances Monday and Tuesday.

Chances for showers and storms will increase by the end of the weekend and into next week as high pressure moves off to the east, with a return to the more standard pattern of diurnal convection towards the end of the forecast period. Temperatures will continue to rise through the weekend and into the beginning of next week, with max temps rising into the lower 90s.

Marine influences will continue to produce elevated surf and a high risk of rip currents probably into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

VFR conditions with winds gradually subsiding after 01Z with gusts around 20 kts continuing along the coast. NE winds strengthen again after 14Z Thursday.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory conditions continue into Tonight with breezy northeasterly winds and elevated seas. High pressure builds in from the north into Thursday as winds and seas gradually subside. High pressure then builds off the southeastern seaboard Friday into the weekend. Light onshore flow then persists Friday into Saturday.

Rip Currents: High Risk across area beaches through midweek as onshore flow persists.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas To Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Through Friday

- Low Min Rh Inland Southeast Ga This Afternoon

Elevated transport winds from the northeast today will support areas of very high daytime dispersion values, especially across inland locations. More easterly transport winds and higher mixing heights on Thursday will again support very high to high daytime dispersion, with values slightly lower on Friday due to weaker winds.

Much drier and cooler pattern today as a cold frontal boundary pushes well south of the area and high pressure system builds to the north. Moderately strong northeast surface and transport winds behind the front will create breezy conditions area wide and support good to high daytime dispersion values. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s inland southeast GA this afternoon.

Despite the drier air mass, recent rainfall and gradually moderating humidity levels should limit significant fire weather concerns.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread fog development is not anticipated over the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 56 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 70 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 64 84 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 71 84 71 85 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 61 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 63 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday afternoon for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday afternoon for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ450-452- 454. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ470-472- 474.