textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches Today.

- Locally Dense Fog Near I-95 This Morning in Northeast Florida

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Sunday Afternoon and Sunday Night

- Small Craft Advisories through Monday Night

- Widespread Inland Freezes likely Monday Night through Wednesday Night

- Severe Drought Conditions Expanding Across our Region

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Nearly stationary frontal boundary was analyzed near the FL/GA border of 03Z, with most of the boundary, especially the eastern "back door" portion, expected to continue to drop southward through this morning. The front is expected to settle over southern portions of the area by late this morning, as a strong surface ridge builds into areas north of the front which will also help to induce an inverted trough to form just offshore of the Florida Peninsula. Along with a breezy northeasterly flow behind the backdoor front in the strengthening pressure gradient, plenty of cloud cover will fill into much as the region, along with isolated to scattered showers closer to the FL coast by this afternoon and evening as the offshore trough strengthens. The highest concentration of rain expected to be over northeast FL waters & coast closer to the frontal boundary, with a mainly dry day elsewhere expected for a few isolated showers possible near the GA coast. Temperatures will also vary rather significantly thanks to the northeast flow and stalled frontal boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s are expected from about I-10 northward, and with the boundary expected to hover near about SR20 in FL, this will likely be where the tightest gradient in max temps will be, as upper 60s to low 70s are forecast for cities like Gainesville and Palatka, with areas like Ocala and southern Marion County expected to be well into the 70s. Depending on exactly where this boundary sets up could easily impact forecast high temps, especially over most of northeast FL.

The boundary is not expected to remain stationary for very long, as a lift back to the north will begin tonight as a warm front. This will take the coastal trough and associated showers near the coast with it, and therefore coastal shower chances drop from south to north throughout the night as this occurs. With plenty of cloud cover over much of the area and the front lifting northward, it is quite possible that temps reach their minimum around or before midnight tonight before remaining nearly steady overnight. These lows will be generally in the mid 40s to low 50s over GA and low to upper 50s over northeast FL.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

By Sunday, the forecast area will be firmly established within the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. A warm front will lift north into southeast Georgia during the morning, promoting strong warm air advection and a pronounced warming trend across the region. Strengthening southerly flow will bring warmer and increasingly humid conditions, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 70s across southeast Georgia and the upper 70s to lower 80s across northeast Florida. A few locations may approach or exceed daily record highs.

Attention then turns to a cold front advancing from the northwest late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop initially across western zones, spreading eastward across the remainder of the forecast area Sunday night. Rain chances will increase markedly after sunset, with widespread showers likely. SPC has placed portions of inland northeast Florida and southeast Georgia in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. While instability will remain limited, strong deep- layer shear may support a more organized line of storms capable of producing isolated strong to damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out, particularly across far interior portions of SE GA.

The cold front will progress through the region overnight, with showers gradually diminishing from west to east toward daybreak Monday. Lows will fall into the mid 40s across southeast Georgia and the lower to mid 50s across northeast Florida as cooler air filters in behind the front.

Isolated showers may linger into early Monday morning, mainly southeast of a St. Simons Island to Lake City line, before clearing as the front exits the area. In its wake, a strong arctic air mass will surge southward, ushering in much colder and drier conditions. Temperatures will fall through the day Monday, with afternoon highs only reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Skies will clear from west to east during the afternoon as high pressure builds in. Monday night will mark the first of several very cold nights, with inland lows dropping into the 20s and coastal temperatures near 30 degrees. Wind chills during the predawn hours will range from the teens inland to the lower 20s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The long-term period will be characterized by a prolonged stretch of well-below-normal temperatures as arctic high pressure settles over the southeastern United States. Widespread inland freezes are expected through Wednesday night, with lows in the 20s across inland portions of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. Coastal locations will see lows near or just above freezing. Wind chill values will fall into the teens and lower 20s, resulting in potentially hazardous cold conditions.

Tuesday will be sunny but very cold, with highs limited to the mid to upper 40s across southeast Georgia and the upper 40s to lower 50s across northeast Florida. A gradual moderation trend will begin by Wednesday, though temperatures will remain below climatological averages. Highs will recover into the 50s, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s. Another reinforcing cold front may move through later in the week, maintaining dry weather and continued chilly conditions through Friday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Low stratus and some areas of fog are starting to impact coastal terminals north of SGJ this morning. Though low stratus/MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to continue for most areas throughout the forecast period, a surge of northeasterly winds behind a cold front dropping southward this morning should mostly dissipate any fog/vsby related impacts by mid morning. Aside from ceiling restrictions, breezy northeasterly winds over 10 knots will be expected for most if not all airfields by this afternoon, which will subside tonight as the aforementioned front lifts back towards north of the area.

MARINE

A frontal boundary will push southward through the local waters tonight. Dense sea fog development will be possible across the nearshore waters this evening. Northeast winds briefly surge in the wake of this frontal passage on Saturday with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Meanwhile, a winter storm developing over the deep South on Saturday and Saturday night will shift northeast, lifting a warm front northward across our local waters on Saturday night. Winds will shift to south and then southwest on Sunday ahead of another cold front, which could be accompanied by a few thunderstorms on Sunday night. Arctic high pressure will then build into the southeast states in the wake of this cold frontal passage early next week, continuing Small Craft Advisory conditions into early next week as breezy northwest winds shift to north while strengthening further on Monday night.

Rip Currents: Solid Moderate risk of rip expected through the weekend, with potential for brief High Risk at times as the Northeast winds surge along the SE GA/NE FL coast on Saturday. Surf/breakers generally in the 2-4 ft range, although briefly in the 3-5 ft range following the surge of Northeast winds this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Fair dispersion conditions are expected today with prevailing northeasterly transport winds around 15 mph, increasing slightly near the southeast Georgia and northeast Florida coast. Early this morning, areas of fog and low stratus may limit visibilities south of I-10. A low chance exists for an isolated shower or two this afternoon.

Winds this evening will remain primarily east-northeasterly, becoming easterly by daybreak Sunday. A slight chance of showers persists overnight, mainly north of Waycross. On Sunday afternoon, south-southwesterly transport winds will increase ahead of a strong cold front. Breezy surface winds will support high dispersion values. The cold front will move across the region Sunday night, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be strong Sunday evening, especially across interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley.

Another period of high dispersion is expected Monday with a breezy northwest flow behind the front. A much colder and drier airmass will settle into the region early next week and persist through midweek.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog and low stratus are expected this morning south of I-10. Frost and freeze potential returns early next week.

CLIMATE

Near Record Highs Sunday, January 25...

Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred.

Record High Temperatures:

January 25: KJAX: 83/2023 KGNV: 85/1950 KCRG: 81/2024

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 58 45 75 42 / 10 10 20 90 SSI 58 50 73 47 / 20 20 0 70 JAX 63 53 82 52 / 20 10 0 60 SGJ 67 57 80 56 / 20 10 0 50 GNV 72 56 83 56 / 0 0 0 80 OCF 76 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 70

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to midnight EST tonight for AMZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight for AMZ452. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ472. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 AM EST Monday for AMZ474.