textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Improving Coastal & Marine Hazards through Monday. Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues through Monday for

- Portions of the St. Johns River Basin

- Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible Early on Wednesday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Friday & Friday Night

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy Fog Possible for Inland Areas This Morning and Tuesday Morning

Much drier airmass continues to fill into the region early this morning, which will be reinforced slightly today as a weak secondary front/trough skims the area, shifting flow northwesterly area-wide. Some patchy fog will be possible inland, especially inland north/central FL this morning where grounds are very saturated and winds remain calm enough. Though the dry airmass does lower confidence in this potential.

No other significant concerns today with a mostly sunny sky, high temps in low to mid 80s, and dew points running mostly in the lower 60s. Only other hazard to mention is held onto the Coastal Flood Advisory for the St. Johns River and tributaries south of downtown Jacksonville, as guidance suggests at least several gauges reaching a mainly marginal minor flood stage. Cool and dry again tonight with similar low temperatures in the 60s. Fog potential looks to be slightly higher for inland areas Tuesday Morning thanks to a weakening flow, though still expecting mainly patchy potential at this time.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry Air Mass Prevails Across Our Area

- Patchy to Areas of Fog Possible Inland Late on Tuesday Night

Predominantly dry weather conditions will continue through midweek as drier air associated with high pressure ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern over the region. Prevailing flow will shift about to become more easterly bringing a more onshore flow resulting in an increased likelihood for clouds and isolated light showers over northeast Florida by Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures through midweek will reach up into the upper 80s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s nearer to the shoreline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 60s for inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower 70s for areas along the coast and near the St Johns River.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry and warm weather Wednesday and Thursday

- Increased chances for Showers this Weekend

Chances for showers with possible isolated thunderstorms will increase going into the weekend as a cold front presses down from out of the north. Surface winds are anticipated to shift to be out of the north and northeast following the frontal passage, with gusty onshore north to northeasterly winds persisting through the weekend. Temperatures will drop to be below the seasonal average by this weekend as cooler air associated with the cold front affects the forecast area.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

VFR will mostly prevail through the forecast period as a dry air mass settles into the region. The only exception will be chances for FG/BR inland, mainly at VQQ but confidence is not very high due to a persistent breeze around 2-5 knots through about sunrise. Otherwise, only other operational concern will be northwest winds around 10 knots for many during peak heating today, which will subside around sunset and onward this evening. There will be FG potential again Tuesday Morning inland, but likely after 06Z Tuesday.

MARINE

High pressure builds west of the region tonight in the wake of a cold frontal passage, then shifting north to northeast of the region mid to late week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below Caution criteria from Monday afternoon through Thursday. The next cold front will approach on Friday, and forecast to move through the coastal waters Friday night through Saturday morning.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains moderate today with offshore flow, but some lingering longer period swells will keep risk from dropping significantly. This moderate risk is likely to continue through the next few days as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather is expected through at least Thursday. Westerly transport winds overnight will shift to northwesterly towards sunrise on Monday, with breezy surface and transport speeds through the early to mid afternoon hours creating good daytime dispersion values area-wide. Surface and transport winds will shift to northerly this evening and then northeasterly towards sunrise on Tuesday, with breezy surface speeds expected along the northeast Florida coast on Tuesday afternoon. Lighter transport speeds across southeast Georgia will yield generally fair daytime dispersion values on Tuesday, while good values continue for inland locations in northeast and north central Florida. Surface and transport winds will shift slightly to east-northeasterly by Wednesday, with fair to good daytime dispersion values continuing at inland locations, while poor values are expected for coastal southeast Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Patchy fog formation is possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning hours on Today and Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY

River flood warnings continues for the Satilla at Atkinson which is cresting in lower-end Minor flood stage today and the St. Marys River at Macclenny which is hovering just above Minor flood stage. The Satilla at Waycross is forecast to crest below Minor flood stage early this week.

Some tributaries of the St. Johns will remain high as heavy rainfall from last week's rainfall drains. Locations include Julington Creek, Thomas Creek, and Pottsburg Creek.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Continuing Coastal Flood Advisory downtown JAX southward to Welaka and Crescent Lake areas where Minor tidal flooding is expected to continue through at least the next high tide this morning. Peak high tides will gradually dampen with lowering peak amplitudes. Northerly winds return Monday and become more northeast to east toward the end of the week, with the higher water level departures continuing for locations generally south of the Shands bridge with an extended duration of Minor flooding possible for some locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 83 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 84 66 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 85 63 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 84 66 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 85 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 83 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ038-132-137-325-633. GA...None. MARINE...None.