textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches

- Areas of Dense Fog Possible This morning and again Wednesday morning

- Near Record High Temperatures through Wednesday

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms on Thursday & Thursday Evening with Isolated Strong Storms Possible

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions from Thursday Afternoon through Friday Morning

- Extreme Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Areas of dense fog are possible during the predawn and early morning hours on Today and Tonight, mainly along the Interstate 75 corridor.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected to continue at all area beaches.

Westerly-southwesterly flow this evening will aid in the advection of fog from the Gulf towards locations along the I-75 corridor, with locally dense fog possible. Lingering fog should begin to lift after sunrise as light winds redevelop. Clearing skies as high pressure sits overhead will allow for warmer than normal temperatures to persist, as daytime highs will top off in the upper 80s across inland SE GA and the upper 80s to lower 90s across inland NE FL. The Atlantic sea breeze will keep coastal locations in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Though chances remain low, there could be a stray shower or storm as the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze move inland and interact. By the evening hours, patchy fog will again be possible along the the I-75 corridor with locally dense fog possible, along with some potential for sea fog near the coast. Lows will be in the lower 60s inland to the mid 60s coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dense fog potential during the predawn and early morning hours over inland northeast Florida Wednesday

- Near record warmth on Wednesday afternoon at inland locations

- Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday.

Wednesday, the surface high ridge axis will lift into NE FL with southerly winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph. Mid to upper level ridging will build further across the area from the Gulf and the associated subsidence will prevent any shower or T'storm chances with mostly sunny skies. Another day of near record highs are likely away from the coast with low 90s from along I-95 westward to I-75/US- 441 and upper 80s westward over the Suwannee Valley and far inland SE GA to and low 80s along the coast where the afternoon Atlantic seabreeze will turn winds southeasterly off the cooler waters.

Wednesday night, south to southwest winds will remain elevated 8-15 mph as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest. Clouds will increase with low stratus shifting NNE from the nature coast off the NE Gulf waters. Showers will spread into inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley by sunrise ahead of the cold front. Lows will be in the mid 60s.

Thursday, a mid to upper level neutrally trough extending from the Great lakes to the Gulf coast is expected to move eastward through the day. Strong shortwave energy at the base of the trough will move across the region and support a line of showers with embedded scattered T"storms. The line will be accompanied by a strong low level jet of 30-40 knots, and 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 knots, but forecast soundings do not show strong veering with unidirectional flow, so while a potential exists for isolated strong to severe T'storms the threat appears limited to strong wind gusts and some small hail. Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches due to training of Heavy showers and T'storms are possible while most rainfall totals will vary from a quarter inch to a half inch.

Breezy SW winds will turn NW in the late afternoon as the cold front passes into NE FL with showers and isolated T'storms coming to an end by midnight for most areas with isolated showers over north central FL and portions of the NE FL coast after midnight. Elevated northwesterly winds will become northerly Thursday night as high pressure builds quickly across the TN valley into the southern appalachians. Highs will be in the 70s over SE GA and the Suwannee Valley with low to mid 80s across most of NE FL with mid to upper 80s over the southern St Johns river basin.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Slightly cooler temperatures Friday

- Showers and Thunderstorm chances return Sunday and Monday

- Cooler air arrives Monday night

Friday, a weak wave of low pressure will develop along the frontal boundary as it slows its progress from central FL into southern FL. Isolated to scattered isolated showers will develop south of I-10 with NE winds becoming east northeasterly as high pressure moves to the Outer Banks of NC.

This weekend, zonal flow aloft in the wake of another mid to upper trough passing well to the north will briefly reinforce surface high pressure over the southern appalachians Saturday morning before shifting northeast of the region. Easterly winds will be trend southeasterly Saturday night with showers redeveloping over the coastal waters as coastal troughing forms to the east. Showers will increase in coverage Sunday as the trough lifts northward as a warm front. Southerly winds will prevail with a Atlantic/Gulf seabreezes pushing inland and kicking off isolated to scattered T'storms due to strong diurnal heating.

Monday, strengthening mid to upper level trough extending south from the upper Midwest into the Ozarks will move east across the Great Lakes, TN, and OH valleys. This feature will support a strong cold front moving across the southern appalachians and the deep south with rounds of showers and T'storms moving through the area into Monday afternoon before a much cooler and drier airmass begins to filter into the region Monday night as strong high pressure builds in from the northwest.

Temperatures will begin the period slightly above normal Friday, above normal this weekend into Monday with below normal values arriving Monday night into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Low cigs will continue to steadily push in from the Gulf through the rest of tonight. IFR visibilities likely at VQQ after before 07Z, LIFR possibly by 08Z. IFR and possibly LIFR ceilings reaching GNV towards 10Z. Confidence continues to remain low for eastward extent of lower cigs for SSI/JAX/CRG/SGJ. Southwesterly winds across the area, with a shift to southeasterly-easterly winds for coastal sites as the seabreeze moves in around 17Z to 20Z.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula, creating a prevailing south to southwesterly wind flow across our local waters through midweek. Locally dense sea fog may develop at times on Today and Wednesday, especially for the near shore waters north of St. Augustine. Onshore winds will likely surge on Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in Caution conditions throughout our local waters. Otherwise, a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states on Wednesday night will cross our area on Thursday afternoon and evening, accompanied by showers and possibly a few stronger thunderstorms.

Strong northwesterly winds in the wake of this frontal passage will create Small Craft Advisory conditions throughout our local waters on Thursday afternoon, with these conditions continuing on Thursday night and Friday morning as high pressure briefly builds over the Mid-Atlantic states. Winds will quickly shift to northerly on Thursday night and then northeasterly by early Friday before speeds gradually diminish on Friday afternoon and evening. Another high pressure center is then expected to build over New England this weekend, creating a prevailing southeasterly wind flow across our local waters by Sunday. Shower chances may increase by late Saturday night and Sunday.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Wednesday due to a persistent easterly ocean swell of 9-10 seconds. Strengthening southerly winds may combine with this swell on Wednesday to create a high risk at the northeast FL beaches, with at least a moderate risk forecast at the southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas of high Daytime Dispersions Values Today over Southeast Georgia And Along And North Of I-10 Wednesday - High Dispersions Thursday across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia

High pressure will extend from Bermuda WSW into central FL with light southwest winds and primarily dry conditions other than a brief shower as the Atlantic seabreeze moves onshore near I-95 before merging with the more progressive Gulf seabreeze late this afternoon, inland MinRH values will fall to around 35 percent. Moderate transport winds and high mixing heights across Southeast Georgia will promote areas of high dispersions north of Waycross. Wednesday, breezier southerly winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph expected as a cold front begins to approach the region from the northwest leading to areas of high dispersions from I-10 northward. Increasing showers arrive Thursday morning with a line of T'storms moving through during the afternoon with potential for isolated strong to severe T'storms. As southwest surface and transport winds increase to 15-25 mph, high dispersions will result despite mostly clouds skies.

Friday into Saturday, high pressure will build just north of the region as the cold front exits to the south with drier conditions over inland portions of Southeast Georgia where MIN RH values falling to 35-40 percent.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of locally dense fog will be possible this morning and again Wednesday morning, especially west of highway 301 into the Suwannee Valley and southern zones such as Flagler, putnam, and Marion counties.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 10: KJAX: 91/1974 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 90/1974 KAMG: 88/1974

March 11: KJAX: 89/1967 KCRG: 86/2019 KGNV: 88/1974 KAMG: 86/2015

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 10: KJAX: 65/1922 KCRG: 64/1980 KGNV: 66/1909 KAMG: 62/1992

March 11: KJAX: 66/1880 KCRG: 67/2015 KGNV: 64/1973 KAMG: 70/1975

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 88 62 89 63 / 10 0 0 10 SSI 80 63 80 64 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 90 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 85 64 85 64 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 90 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 90 63 91 62 / 10 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.