textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents Through the Weekend

- Critically Low Humidity Inland this Afternoon

- Isolated Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms

- Beginning on Sunday and Continuing Next Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High risk of rip currents due to surge of Northeast winds - Dry conditions will elevate fire weather concerns

Today: High pressure over the SE States builds off the Carolina/GA coastline and sends a surge of NE winds down the Atlantic Coastal Counties of SE GA/NE FL this morning and into the St. Johns River Basin by this afternoon. NE winds will increase to around 15 mph along the Atlantic Coastal Counties with gusts to 20-25 mph at times with lesser NE winds around 10G15 mph over inland areas. Skies will remain mostly clear today with just some fair weather Cu this afternoon. Max temps will be coolest along the Atlantic Coast in the breezy onshore flow with mid 70s for coastal SE GA and upper 70s to lower 80s for coastal NE FL, while inland SE GA pushes into the lower to middle 80s, and inland NE FL into the upper 80s/near 90F. The warmer temps over inland areas along with lingering dry air mass will support elevated fire weather concerns as RH's fall into the 25 to 30 percent range this afternoon along with some increased NE winds. The onshore flow will also increase the rip current risk to High along the Atlantic beaches of NE FL/SE GA.

Tonight: High pressure ridge axis will build just north of the region with an E-SE steering flow setting up off the Atlantic. Mostly clear skies continue over inland areas with East winds decreasing to 5 mph or less after sunset, except remaining at 5-10 mph along the Atlantic Coast locations. Low temps fall into the mid/upper 50s over inland SE GA, with 60s elsewhere over inland areas and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast. Still likely too much boundary layer wind flow and lingering dry air for much fog formation over inland areas, except for patchy fog at sunrise. The onshore flow will start to produce some cloud streets over the Atlantic waters just offshore and some isolated showers will start to develop during the overnight hours, but are expected to remain offshore for now.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

- Isolated thunderstorm potential, east of HWY 301 Sunday

Over the weekend, deep layered ridging will become temporarily situated off to the northeast - off the Mid Atlantic coast - setting up a prolonged period of southeasterly winds. This will gradually replace the very dry airmass left over behind the the front that passed on Thursday, which'll take at least through Saturday before enough moisture is in place to generate convection along the sea breezes. The Atlantic sea breeze will be the dominant sea breeze, keeping better rain and isolated thunderstorm chances along and west of the I-75 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Sunday.

Additional showers and potential for an isolated storm may continue late into Sunday night as a quick-moving, negative-tilted shortwave lifts over the region.

Given the onshore flow, cooler high temperature readings are expected at the coast each day, somewhere in the mid 80s, whereas inland counties are likely reach the low 90s. Overnight the opposite will be true, more mild temps will be favored at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: - Scattered afternoon showers along the sea breeze through next week

Persistent low level ridging will be nudged eastward and then southerly through next week, keeping average prevailing steering flow southeasterly. This will help moisture build from an inch and some change to about 1.5" by the middle part of next week. Increasing moisture will lead to increasing chances for diurnal t'storms. A little more uncertainty comes into the forecast around Wednesday and Thursday timeframe as a front will approach. There's more guidance and an average amid the ensembles have said front slowing down significantly as it approaches, keeping the typical garden-variety diurnal sea breeze convection the dominant sensible weather through Thursday next week. Some potential for the front to drift toward the region Friday as upper ridging is flattened out by an incoming shortwave.

Otherwise, beneath an amplified upper ridge temperatures will be slightly above normal through next week, except at the beaches where the onshore flow will likely keep afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

VFR conditions with just few-sct cumulus around 3500-5000 ft today. Surface winds will become northeast by about 15z and then more easterly during the afternoon. Speeds increase to 8-12 kt with gusts near 20 kt possible. Winds decrease after sunset tonight.

MARINE

Strengthened northeast to east winds and building seas today as high pressure builds north of the waters. High pressure will then shift eastward off the southeastern seaboard by this evening, and continue to move well east of the region this weekend. This will result in east to southeast winds persisting into the weekend and early next week. Afternoon and evening wind surges this weekend may bring periods of caution conditions to the near shore waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be possible in this onshore wind flow by late in the weekend and next week.

Rip Currents:

Northeast wind surge today will push surf/breakers into the 2-4 ft range and will post a High Risk of Rip Currents at area beaches and will continue the High Risk through the upcoming weekend as onshore flow continues and surf/breakers approaches 3-5 ft by late Sunday along with longer periods swells.

FIRE WEATHER

- Critically Low Humidity Inland This Afternoon - Areas Of High Dispersion Over The Weekend

High pressure will sink south toward the area, resulting in lighter winds through much of the day, while lingering dry air results in a humidity crash to near critical levels once again, especially inland areas west of I-95. The sea breeze will kick inland during the mid afternoon and shift winds easterly as it pushes inland, reaching the I-75 corridor around 7-8 PM where it will meet up with the Gulf sea breeze.

Stronger ridging and high pressure will then become established to the northeast over the weekend, resulting in an earlier Atlantic sea breeze inland push and the potential for isolated thunderstorms along the I-75 corridor and districts to the west during the early evening hours Sunday. Dispersion will be near "high" levels over the weekend, especially inland, as mixing heights push above 6,000 ft.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Fog is not expected this morning but patchy fog for inland areas will be possible Saturday and Sunday mornings. Poor to moderate humidity recovery this morning will be followed by excellent recovery over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 84 57 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 76 68 83 73 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 82 64 88 69 / 0 10 0 0 SGJ 83 69 86 72 / 10 20 10 0 GNV 90 65 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 91 66 90 70 / 0 0 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.