textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches Today

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA This Morning & Thursday

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

- Potential for Locally Heavy Rain SE GA Friday & Saturday

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

MVFR ceilings of 1,500 - 3,000 feet will prevail at the regional terminals this morning through early this afternoon, with ceilings then lifting to VFR by 18Z at the Duval County terminals and SSI and by 20Z at GNV and SGJ. Periods of MVFR visibilities may develop after 06Z Thursday at VQQ, but confidence was currently too low to include in the 12Z TAFs. Northerly surface winds will increase to 5- 10 knots at the regional terminals by 15Z, followed by winds shifting to northwesterly after 16Z. Northwest to northerly surface winds sustained at 5 knots or less will then prevail after 23Z.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Cool drier air associated with high pressure will build in over the region today, following the previous nights frontal passage, with calm weather and mild winds throughout today and tonight. Patchy early morning frost developments are expected over inland southeast Georgia early this morning before clearing with the sunrise. Patchy frost conditions are expected to return during the early AM hours tonight and extend into early Thursday morning. High temperatures today will rise into the mid to upper 50s and lower 60s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid 30s for inland southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 40s over inland northeast Florida and in the 40s and lower 50s for areas along the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

By Thursday, an area of low pressure near the Gulf Coast will begin lifting a warm front across Florida. Moisture will gradually increase from the southwest, most notably across north of I-10 will 700-400 mb WSW flow starts to prime the atmosphere. Skies will trend from mostly sunny in the morning to mostly cloudy by afternoon especially across SE Georgia and Suwannee Valley. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60s across SE GA and the upper 60s to lower 70s across Northeast FL. Dry conditions will persist most of the day, though a few light showers or sprinkles may develop over the far interior SE GA during the afternoon continuing into the nocturnal hours.

Thursday night, cloud cover will continue to increase as deep moisture streams northward ahead of the approaching Gulf System. Lows will be warmer, generally in mid 40s for inland SE GA and low to mid 50s across NE FL. Northeast winds will remain around 5 to 10 mph. Shower chances will rise overnight, especially SE GA and the Suwannee Valley where POPS range 25 to 45 percent, with likely POPS near the Ocmulgee River Basin.

By Friday morning, the warm front will lift north toward I-10 corridor and is expected to reach near Waycross by early Friday evening. This will bring increasing moisture and warmer temperatures. Highs will reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees across much of NE and N Central FL, while SE GA will see mid 60s to lower 70s. Showers will embedded thunderstorms will become more widespread, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, with highest coverage across SE GA, the Suwannee Valley, and areas north of I-10. The WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook indicates a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall across of SE GA. The cold front will press and then push through SE GA late Friday morning and stall near the I-10 corridor by daybreak Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The cold front will finally push south of the area by late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the associated low lifts northeastward. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain chances will gradually decrease Saturday night, though scattered showers are anticipated into Sunday. With southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the front on Saturday, deep Gulf moisture transport will support periods of heavy rainfall with some guidance suggesting 2 to 4 inches across portions of Southeast Georgia. The marginal risk for excessive rainfall shifts southward Saturday to include most of SE GA and NE FL as the front progresses through the region.

From Sunday night through Tuesday, a drier and colder airmass will settle over the area under building high pressure. Temperatures will fall below normal for early December, with highs in the lower to mid 60s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Guidance also suggest another, albeit drier, reinforcing front boundary Monday, supporting cool and dry conditions with good model agreement.

MARINE

Troughing will linger over coastal waters into Wednesday, as high pressure builds to the northwest. The high will build to the north Thursday. An area of low pressure will move northeast out of the Gulf Friday, with the frontal system associated with this low lingering over the region through the weekend.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Thursday NE FL Moderate Thursday

FIRE WEATHER

Light northwest winds become established later this afternoon, with Poor to Fair dispersions developing, becoming Poor by Thursday. The next round of showers and storms expected Thursday evening into the upcoming weekend as an area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the week, bringing another cold front to push across the area during the upcoming weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy frost possible Wednesday Night and early Thursday morning for interior locations in southeast GA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 35 58 45 60 / 0 30 50 70 SSI 44 63 52 68 / 0 10 30 40 JAX 41 68 51 77 / 0 10 20 30 SGJ 48 69 56 78 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 43 71 53 79 / 0 0 10 20 OCF 45 73 54 80 / 0 0 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.