textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor River Flooding Continues Along Lower Portions of the Satilla River

- Patchy to Areas of Fog Early Thursday Morning. Locally Dense Fog at mile possible through 9 AM

- Local NorEaster Conditions Return this Weekend. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions - High Risk for Rip Currents & Rough, High Surf. Small Craft Advisory, Potential Gusts to Gale Force Sunday into Monday. Minor Tidal Flooding Potential at Coast, ICW & St. Johns Basin. Extended duration minor flooding along St Johns River into next week possible

UPDATE

The Dense Fog advisory was expanded to include almost all of inland SE GA except for Jeff Davis county, and also westward over NE FL to the Suwannee River including all of Hamilton, Suwannee and Gilchrist counties as supported by observations and satellite trends. Still expect the dense fog to lift into low stratus over the next hour as the sun rises and stronger heating combined with winds increasing to 5-10 mph from the east and southeast help mix out the fog.

Otherwise, today will other be a warm and sunny day with little in the way of any clouds as surface high pressure axis extends across the area from the east northeast and ridging aloft persists over the coastal southeast. Highs will be above normal in the mid to upper 80s inland with isolated highs near 90, while cooler at the coast in the lower 80s due to the light onshore flow.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Patchy to Areas of Fog, locally dense

Surface high pressure will remain in place across the area Today. The combination of low level moisture from recent rains and light winds, will produce fog again early this morning. The fog may become locally dense.

The high will weaken Tonight, as a front approaches from the northwest. Fog potential will exist again Tonight.

Above average temperatures expected this period.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Potential for a few storms over north central FL Friday afternoon/evening

-Coastal hazards begin late Friday night into Saturday with beginning stages of elevated water levels, high rip current risk, and rough surf and seas.

- Northerly winds expected to gust to around 35 mph on Saturday and Saturday night, with a potential for gusts of 40 mph along the coastal areas of northeast FL, which would necessitate a wind advisory along the coast

Big changes occur this period as a low level high pressure ridge over the region on Friday shifts quickly eastward while a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will sweep south-southeast across the area Friday night. We expect warm conditions with southwest flow ahead of the front on Friday into Friday evening and sufficient instability will lead to a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly across northeast and north central FL, and parts of the coastal waters. Highs expected to be in the mid to upper 80s. Mild lows on Friday night in the 60s. Notable wind shift to the northwest expected late Friday night through early Saturday morning.

By sunrise Saturday morning, the strong cold front may be just past our forecast area or laying right across Flagler, Putnam, and Marion counties. Scattered light rain areas expected Saturday but rainfall amounts look pretty low at less than 0.05 inches. Only 10 percent or less chance of rain for northeast FL Saturday night and near zero for southeast GA. Strong high pressure will build north of the area behind the front, with a blustery north across the area about 15-25 mph with gusts of about 35 mph. Expect breezy winds to continue Saturday night, but mainly at the coastal counties due to north- northeast trajectory off the Atlantic waters. Much cooler high temps on Saturday with substantial cloudiness with highs in the 70s and lows Saturday night in the 50s north zones to lower 60s southeast zones.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards including tidal flooding, gusty winds, elevated rip risk and surf expected from Sunday through Tuesday

Strong high pressure will continue to be north of the area Sunday around 1037 mb across the Mid Atlantic states will shift east into the western Atlantic by Monday, providing for strong north-northeast flow for Sunday and Monday. This flow expected to bring a chance of showers for the coastal areas into mid week. Brief downpours possible as moisture streams in off the ATlantic with POPs generally 20-50 percent for coastal zones, and diminishing further inland. Still looks like potential for wind gusts of 35-40 mph at the coast for Sunday and Monday, and gradually diminishing by Tuesday and Wednesday.

The elevated onshore flow will bring coastal hazards such as tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and minor to moderate beach erosion. Winds will begin to taper off by midweek as the high pressure begins to weaken but a northeast flow will continue to prevail.

Max temperatures will be well below average Sunday in the upper 60s north zones and lower to mid 70s south zones. Veering flow on Monday will start to bring max temps up a bit into the mid to upper 70s from Monday through mid week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

MVFR/IFR fog will prevail at the terminals this morning through 14Z with tempo groups through 13Z/14Z at VQQ, JAX, and SSI TAF sites for LIFR/VLIFR VSBY from dense fog with little to calm winds until later this morning as light east to southeasterly winds mix down to the surface. High Pressure ridge axis extending over the area from the ENE will remain across the area today and then slowly shift east of the area into the western Atlantic waters. Light east to southeasterly winds will shift inland, then become very light and variable tonight along the coast and calm inland with only a few high thin clouds expected and few low level cumulus mostly south of the TAF sites.

Fog will redevelop and bring MVFR/IFR/LIFR restrictions between 06Z- 09Z at the inland and SSI terminals again late tonight as low level moisture and dry air above the surface remain.

MARINE

High pressure will be over the area Today, then weaken Tonight into Friday. A cold front will move southeast across the area Friday night. Strong high pressure will build behind the front. A surge of north winds will move south down the coastal waters behind the front, with elevated winds from late Friday night through much of next week, with Gale force winds possible.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk through Friday. High risk of rip currents with rough surf from Saturday through much of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions Today - Patchy High Afternoon Dispersions Friday Through Monday

High pressure remains over the area into Friday, with easterly winds persisting today. Southwesterly winds develop on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will push through the area by Friday night. Northeasterly winds develop this weekend behind the cold front as high pressure builds north of the area. Elevated winds are expected along the Atlantic coast of SE GA and NE FL beginning late Friday Night, with the elevated winds persisting into the upcoming week. This will bring chances of showers for coastal locations through the weekend and next week.

Poor to Fair dispersions persist this afternoon. By Friday, Good to High dispersions develop over SE GA ahead of the frontal boundary, with Fair to good dispersions expected over NE FL.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog is possible during the late night and early morning hours through Friday Morning. This will mainly be over inland areas and Dense Fog Advisories may be required. There is a low chance for thunderstorms over north central FL Friday afternoon.

HYDROLOGY

Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla River during the next several days.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Minor tidal flooding is possible along the Atlantic coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin this weekend and early next week as strong northeasterly winds develop. Some significant beach erosion is possible by Sunday, especially coastal northeast FL, as seas for the nearshore waters build to the 10-15 ft range through Monday night while southeast GA nearshore seas mainly in the 8-13 ft range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 88 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 83 70 85 68 / 0 0 0 10 JAX 86 67 88 68 / 0 0 20 20 SGJ 84 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 30 GNV 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 40 30 OCF 89 70 88 71 / 0 0 50 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-120-220-322-422-425-522. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ132- 134>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None.