textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents through Monday

- Daily Thunderstorm Chances This Weekend. Isolated Storms over northeast FL, mainly west of I-75 This Evening. Isolated Strong To Marginally Severe Storms Possible Along I-75 Corridor. Daily Afternoon Storms Expected Tuesday Onward, Best Chances Shift toward The I-95 Corridor After Wednesday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- High risk of rip currents at area beaches - Isolated strong/severe storms inland SE GA/inland NE FL this afternoon and evening

Today: Belt of mid/upper level moisture will rotate around the high pressure ridge and up the axis of the FL Peninsula this afternoon and evening. This slightly elevated moisture axis will interact with the East Coast sea breeze pushing inland and meeting the Gulf Coast sea breeze front over inland areas to trigger scattered to numerous showers and storms along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL this afternoon, which will zipper northward across inland SE GA as well through the evening hours. Cool temps aloft at -12C to -13C at 500 mb will help increase instability and lead to isolated strong to severe storms with wind gusts to 40-60 mph, along with small hail potential and some locally heavy rainfall as some storms will train over the same locations as the sea breeze fronts merge late in the day. Max temps will continue at slightly above normal levels prior to convection into the lower 90s inland, with heat indices pushing close to 100F, while more breezy SE winds at 15G25 mph will develop behind the East Coast sea breeze, with highs in the upper 80s/near 90F along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches.

Tonight: Evening showers and storms over inland areas will start to fade after sunset and end by the late evening hours as breezy SE winds along the Atlantic Coast fade as well by midnight. Models are suggesting a drier mid/upper level air mass will push in from the SE during the overnight hours to also help to shutdown convection and expect skies to become mostly clear to partly cloudy after midnight which will allow for slightly cooler min temps, as lows fall into the lower/middle 60s inland SE GA and mid/upper 60s inland NE FL and lower 70s for the Atlantic beaches. Some risk for patchy fog towards sunrise Monday morning, but does not appear to be significant at this time, but overall fog risk will be highest near any inland locations that receive some rainfall this afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Showers and storms development limited on Monday. Afternoon thunderstorms return on Tuesday along the sea breeze.

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely through the first half of the upcoming week.

High pressure will reside over the Bermuda region into midweek, which will allow for overall flow to continue from the east- southeast and bring the Atlantic sea breeze well inland each afternoon. With dry air filtering into the area during the predawn hours on Monday, convective activity is expected to be limited at the start of the new week, but would not be surprised to see the stray shower along the coast during the afternoon to evening hours. Chances of precipitation return Tuesday as the dry air is steadily replaced with moist air from the Atlantic, with most activity focused along the sea breeze as it pushes inland during the afternoon hours and meets the Gulf breeze near the I-75 corridor.

Cooler temperature expected at the coast each day in the mid 80s, with inland locations are likely reach the low 90s. Overnight the opposite will be true, more mild temps will be favored at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the mid/upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Weather Concerns this Period:

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms expected along the sea breeze mergers

- Rip currents at area beaches continue to be of concern.

The overall pattern persists on Wednesday with high pressure over the Bermuda region, onshore flow from the Atlantic remaining, allowing for the inland push of the Atlantic sea breeze. This will steer most convective activity towards the I-75 corridor. By Thursday a frontal boundary looks to push towards the SE US, but recent guidance is suggesting the front will begin to stall on Friday and Saturday, remaining mostly north of the area. This will likely cause for the high pressure over the western Atlantic to retreat a bit more to the east. With this pattern, a more southerly flow will likely develop which would shift sea breeze mergers more to central locations of the area as both sea breezes would be able to push well inland. An increase in precipitation chances is anticipated for the upcoming Memorial Day weekend.

Warm temperatures are expected to during the forecast period as highs will sit in the lower to mid 90s across inland locations and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Abundant mid and high clouds and milder temps tonight will likely prevent much in the way of any significant fog formation, so will leave out of the current TAF forecast package. Better chances for showers and storms across inland terminals as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland and meets the Gulf Coast sea breeze along the I- 75 corridor. Will place VCTS at VQQ from 18-22Z, and PROB30 at GNV from 20-02Z for TSRA activity, otherwise rainfall chances too low at the other terminals (less than 20 percent) for any inclusion at this time. SE winds increase to 10-15G20 knots at coastal terminals behind the East Coast sea breeze Sunday afternoon and will not fade until after sunset Sunday evening.

MARINE

High pressure ridge will extend its axis across the southeastern states Today through the middle portion of next week, keeping a persistent onshore wind flow with late afternoon and evening wind surges expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in this weather pattern during the early to middle portions of next week. A frontal boundary will then move over the southeastern states late next week resulting in gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents:

Onshore East to Southeast flow at close to 15 knots through Monday will continue a High Risk of Rip currents with surf in the 3 to 4 feet range, this trend will likely continue through the middle of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Into Midweek

Bermuda high pressure will establish and lead to a dominant Atlantic sea breeze over the next several afternoons. The Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze collision will occur along the I-75 corridor by late this afternoon to evening. Isolated storms with the potential for strong to severe storms possible. Winds will increase behind the Atlantic sea breeze, as winds rise to around 15 mph and possibly up to 20 mph at the coast. The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions inland each afternoon heading into midweek.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening along the I-75 corridor; storms will be capable of erratic, strong gusts in excess of 40 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 90 64 89 63 / 60 30 0 0 SSI 82 70 83 73 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 89 68 86 70 / 20 0 0 0 SGJ 87 71 86 73 / 10 0 0 10 GNV 93 66 91 69 / 50 20 10 0 OCF 93 67 91 70 / 50 20 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Monday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.