textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Thunderstorms this Afternoon and early Evening. Main Area of Concern: I-95 Corridor and the Beaches. Strong gusts around 40 mph, Flooding, and Periods of Lightning

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches Today

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms through Next Week. Widespread 3-5 Rainfall Totals Forecast through next Wednesday, with

- Localized Totals in Excess of 6 Possible. Daily, Marginal Risk of Flooding, especially in Urban and Flood-Prone Areas

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, with a few strong storms possible

Morning showers will continue to weaken. A round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move northeast across the region this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms will be possible.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Numerous to widespread thunderstorms each day with potential for localized flooding, mainly along the I-95 corridor

Wet, storm pattern continues Friday and Saturday as a a parade of weak upper shortwaves traverse a stalled, wavy frontal boundary lying across southern GA. A weak low forming off the coast Saturday will depart offshore as an upper trough sinks down from the north, push a more robust cold front toward the region late Saturday.

Amid a tropical-like airmass, the aforementioned features will lead to waves of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day with activity lingering well into the evening Saturday night as the second shortwave impulse drifts over the region. Given deep moist profile, the potential for heavy rain fall and localized flooding will be the primary threat. There will be a better chance for thunderstorms to produce strong wind gusts Saturday afternoon and evening as sufficiently steep low level lapse rates develop.

A mean southwesterly steering flow will lead to a dominant Gulf breeze resulting in a focused area of thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor Friday and Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be tamed a bit by the thunderstorm activity and cloud cover and it's possible that some locations don't reach the forecasted maximum; however, it is generally expected that temperatures will push in the upper 80s to near 90 across NE FL and the mid 80s in SE GA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Expected to Continue, with Beneficial Rainfall Totals Forecast Area-Wide.

- Clouds and Cooler Temperatures Expected Early Next Week.

The aforementioned cold front will likely sink into NE FL through Sunday and be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms and guidance has been fairly consistent on bringing the front toward north-central FL through Monday as a shortwave pushes in from the west, essentially right along the frontal boundary as it stalls. There's some uncertainty in where the front will ultimately stall and the forecast may be a bit "heavy-handed" for some areas given the potential for drier air to move into SE GA by the middle of next week. Main concerns will still be heavy rain, especially with potential training around the frontal boundary as it stalls. A surge of northeasterly will accompany the front as it pushes into the area, renewing risks of rip currents next week. Temperatures will moderate toward the middle part of next week with temperatures in the low/mid 80s.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Showers will push across the area this morning. While a brief restriction is possible this morning, the chance is not great enough for mention in TAF. Greater chances for restrictions this afternoon and evening, and convection increases in coverage and moves through. Convection will dissipate later this evening. Patchy restrictions in stratus and fog are forecast for Tonight.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure will shift south and eastward while weakening today as a cold front sinks southward from the Mid-Atlantic states into the southeastern states. Winds shift from southerly to southwesterly with diminishing speeds today. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will impact our local waters this afternoon through at least the middle portion of next week as the frontal boundary stalls over our local waters, with weak waves of low pressure expected to develop along the frontal boundary that will traverse our local waters from west to east. West to southwesterly winds may strengthen to Caution levels early next week, especially offshore.

Rip Currents:

Flow shifts offshore today, which will drop rip current risk to moderate across northeast FL beaches, and low at southeast GA beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

A shift to southwesterly winds will allow for the Gulf breeze to push further inland by the afternoon to evening hours on Thursday and Friday, with convective activity pushing towards I-95 and the Atlantic coast. With increased moisture coming from the Gulf on westerly transport flow, widespread waves of downpours are forecast area-wide into the weekend, which may be followed by a late season cool front early next week. No low humidity concerns or fire weather threats are expected. through the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic winds and heavy downpours are expected during periods of thunderstorms over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 86 70 84 68 / 80 30 90 70 SSI 89 75 85 74 / 70 60 80 60 JAX 91 72 88 72 / 80 40 90 60 SGJ 92 73 88 73 / 70 30 80 40 GNV 90 72 90 72 / 70 20 70 30 OCF 89 73 89 73 / 60 20 60 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.