textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Dense Fog & Sea Fog Tonight and Early Tuesday Morning. Sea Fog expands onshore Tonight. Nightly Areas of Dense Fog Likely through the Week

- Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds This Week. Elevated Surf and High Risk for Rip Currents Likely by Tuesday and Wednesday

- Record High Temperatures Later This Week

UPDATE

Dense sea fog has once again expanded onshore to coastal areas north of St. Augustine this evening lowering visibilities to less than a mile prompting Dense Fog Advisories. Fog/stratus will continue to expand inland through the night along the I-95 corridor and St. Johns river basin. Dense Fog Advisories will likely need to be expanded later tonight.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT:

- Dense fog near the Southeast Georgia coast this evening and inland north of I-10 overnight

Temperatures will rise into the 70s to near 80 inland, with slightly cooler temperatures near the Atlantic coast as onshore winds continue. Cloud cover will increase overnight, especially over southeast Georgia, with low temps in the 50s areawide. Heavy cloud cover is currently making way southward down the Georgia coast, as onshore winds push clouds inland elsewhere.

Fog will begin to develop near the southeast Georgia coast this evening, with coverage expanding southward and inland throughout the night. The highest chances for dense fog will be near the coast this evening then inland towards sunrise, generally north of I-10. Fog will begin to clear after sunrise.

SHORT TERM /7 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights During the Period:

- Nightly Fog, Possibly Locally Dense - Moderate to High Rip Currents

Mid to upper level ridging will build over the region through this period, with the geopotential heights from 850 mb to 500 mb rising to the 90th percentile of climatology, telling us that the temps will be well above normal. The airmass remains largely dry with PWATS below 1 inch Tuesday but may rise to about 0.8 or 1 inch on Wednesday as the mean layer high center moves offshore of the southeast CONUS and provides a more moist southeasterly flow. At the surface, the ridge axis will remain to the north of the area over the Carolinas keeping an easterly and then southeasterly wind flow later on the period.

Models gradually nudge up dewpoints which will be more favorable for some fog development at night and early morning. Not surprisingly, the NBM is suggesting more foggy conditions Tue night and Wed night.

Dense fog is likely in some locations and primary areas of concern will be along the coastal counties and parts of southeast GA where boundary layer winds are lighter. However, certainly could see some dense fog over parts of northeast FL.

A few showers possible over the coastal waters mainly offshore as a weak inverted surface forms Tue-Wed.

Max temps lower 80s inland on Tuesday, go to the mid 80s by Wednesday. Coastal areas will be several degrees cooler due to onshore flow. Lows mild from about 50-55 inland around 60 coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Weather Highlights:

- Record High Temperatures possible Thursday through the Weekend - Isolated Thunderstorms possible over the Weekend

Deep layer high pressure system will remain east of the area keeping a southeast and south 1000-500 mb flow for the area. PWATs may rise up to about 1.2 inches which may support a few showers during the peak heating, but t-storm chances are below 5-10 percent given the subsidence aloft. Best chance of showers will be near the I-75 corridor Thursday and Friday based on both the NBM and latest GFS. During the weekend and early next week, the ridge aloft becomes weaker and modest instability may develop to encourage an isolated storm or two during the afternoon hours. Periods of sea fog will also be possible due to the warm, moist air moving over the cool coastal waters. Otherwise, not much change to the forecast of above normal temps, probably near record or record temps from Thursday into the weekend. See the climate section for the current record information for the climate sites.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

LIFR sea fog will continue to expand from NE to SW across the TAF sites tonight into Tuesday morning. LIFR conditions are already present at SSI and CRG with JAX and SGJ dropping likely within an hour or 2. The setup is looking similar to last night where the fog/stratus will linger at the sites until 09-12Z. NE winds 5-10 kts this evening become light overnight then return after 15Z.

MARINE

Dense sea fog across the nearshore waters will likely linger into mid-late Tuesday morning hours. High pressure will strengthen to the north northeast tonight, as a coastal trough develops over the waters. The high will move more toward the northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, with the coastal trough gradually weakening. The high will be centered to the east northeast Thursday into the weekend, with the ridge extending across forecast area.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected at area beaches with some persistent onshore flow and surf height around 2 to 4 feet. Rip current risk increases later today into Tuesday as onshore flow strengthens.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Today

A pattern shift with strong mid to upper level ridge building across the region this week and will lead to near record temperatures Thursday and Friday. Critical weather conditions don't appear to align through the next week, but the transition to moist, and mildly unstable, airmass later this week may lead to a moderate sea breeze. There is some potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for inland districts over the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas of dense fog possible early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Patchy fog to areas of fog possible again Thursday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 4: KAMG: 86/1961

March 5: KJAX: 87/2020 KGNV: 87/1997 KAMG: 87/1989

March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961

March 7: KGNV: 88/2023 KAMG: 86/1956

March 8: KJAX: 88/1945 KGNV: 88/1921 KAMG: 86/1974

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7: KGNV: 66/1935

March 8: KGNV: 65/1973

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 55 69 56 71 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 54 77 56 79 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 57 74 58 76 / 20 10 10 10 GNV 55 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 10 OCF 55 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ124-125. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-452.