textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Marine & Coastal Hazards Continue this Week. Dangerous Surf Zone High Risk for Rip Currents. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Within the St. Johns River Basin and Atlantic coast south of St Augustine

- Strong Northeasterly Winds Develop Friday Night Along the coast. Moderate Tidal and Coastal Flooding Likely During the Upcoming Weekend. Gale Conditions Possible for the Local Atlantic Waters. Dangerous Surf Zone Conditions with a High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches.

- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible this Weekend for Coastal Northeast FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights:

- Coastal & Marine Hazards Continue with high rip current risk, rough surf, beach erosion, and minor tidal flooding during high tide

- Lows in the 40s over inland SE GA/inland North FL again tonight

Drier air (PWATs 0.5-0.9") and northeasterly winds remain in place, yielding mostly clear skies and pleasant temperatures. Highs will reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees today, with lows dipping into the 40s for inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee valley area, 50s elsewhere.

Main hazards in the near term will continue to be coastal in nature with a high risk of rip currents, rough surf and minor tidal flooding along the St. Johns River Basin and the Atlantic coast south of St. Augustine.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: Thursday through Friday night

- Coastal flooding expected due to onshore flow, along with continued high risk for rip currents

Predominantly cool and dry conditions with northeasterly flow continue Thursday and Friday as high pressure strengthens over the eastern US. Chances for coastal showers begin to increase overnight Friday and into early Saturday morning. Below seasonable temperatures continue with highs in the low 70s along the coast to around 80 inland. Lows Thursday night will cool into the upper 40s for inland SE GA to upper 50s along the coast. With strengthening onshore flow late Friday, temps begin to moderate with lows in the 50s inland to 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: Saturday through Tuesday

- Strong onshore flow will lead to coastal flooding, beach hazards such as rip currents and high surf, and gusty onshore winds

Onshore flow will persist through the weekend and into the beginning of next week as high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard. Weak inverted troughs develop with the onshore pattern increasing the chances for showers and the potential for a few embedded thunderstorms. As a result of the strong onshore flow, a myriad of coastal hazards can be expected this weekend including a high rip current risks, high surf, coastal flooding and gusty overland winds possibly reaching wind advisory criteria. Temperatures will continue to be below the seasonal average through the weekend and into next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

VFR conditions prevail during this period. A few gusts near 15-20 kt this afternoon, calming around 23Z.

MARINE

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern states and a strong low pressure well offshore over the western Atlantic will continue to support hazardous marine conditions across the area waters this week. Rough seas will continue to slowly diminish through early Friday morning. However, small craft advisory level conditions will continue into mid to late week especially for offshore waters. Another surge of Northeast winds to Gale force is expected to develop late Friday and continue into this weekend.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continues much of this week and weekend given the elevated surf conditions and onshore flow. Though the high surf advisory is dropped over the area beaches, elevated surf will continue to be a problem the next few days for any swimmer entering the surf zone. Looking ahead, high surf advisory looks probable again for the weekend as northeast flow increases.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Se Ga And Ne Fl Friday - High Coastal Dispersions Over The Weekend

Northeasterly onshore flow continues into next week. This flow pattern will strengthen over the weekend leading to high daytime and nighttime dispersions along the coast. Drier air will filter in from the north causing Min RHs to be in the upper 20s to low 30s for much of inland southeast Georgia and inland northeast Florida through Friday. Chances for mainly coastal showers will also increase this weekend into early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected the next few days.

HYDROLOGY

The Satilla River at Atkinson looks to have peaked just above 14 ft and is forecast to fall slowly toward 13.3 ft late this weekend. Thus, Minor Flooding will continue along portions of the lower Satilla River Basin.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Recent observations show minor flooding occurring from Downtown Jacksonville upstream to Satsuma. These levels are about 1.5 to 1.8 ft MHHW, solidly in minor flooding. Expanded the Coastal Flood Advisory to include downtown Jacksonville northward/eastward, minor flooding is likely along most of the St. Johns river with the next high tide.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another surge of northeast winds and the full moon on Sunday/Monday Oct 25-26 will push water levels up further, especially for the coast. Confidence is growing for moderate tidal flooding and coastal flood watches/warnings may be needed.

At the beaches, minor beach erosion will continue the next couple of days especially at times of high tide due to the rough surf. As the astronomical tides increase later this week and over the weekend, the combination of the increased surf and water levels will lead to higher beach erosion potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 48 78 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 57 75 57 70 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 53 76 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 60 75 61 75 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 51 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 54 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-125- 132-137-138-225-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for GAZ154- 166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474.