textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Duration of Dangerous Cold this Week. Nightly Freezes Monday Night through Next Weekend. Tuesday Morning Wind Chills in the Teens to low 20s. Inland Hard Freezes Likely.

- Small Craft Advisories through early Tuesday and Moderate Risk of Rip Currents.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A loosely linear area of convection continues its slow progression southeastward across the region early this morning along the leading edge of an arctic front. That front will shift offshore into the Atlantic this morning with a the lagging arctic airmass plunging into the region on a cold northwesterly flow this afternoon.

Temperatures this morning will likely be or be very close to the high temperatures for the entire day as strong cold air advection sends air temperature down quickly this afternoon. The strong flow pushing the arctic airmass will also begin to transfer some of that momentum towards the surface this afternoon with full sun. Breezy conditions will persist through the day and into the night with peak gusts in the 25-30 mph range, especially at the beaches. These breezy conditions will linger into the overnight hours, leading to cold conditions and increasing the risk of exposure.

Temps will fall dramatically tonight with lows falling to the lower 20s across southeast GA and into the mid/upper 20s across northeast FL. Combining these temperatures with the lingering wind, it'll feel like it's in the teens and lower 20s for the entire area tonight. Due to the dangerous wind chills forecast a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued in addition to the "Hard" Freeze Warning. Make cold weather and preparations this morning before the cold air sets in tonight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Cold and dry conditions will continue through midweek following the frontal passage with cloud cover increasing on Wednesday as a short wave trough moves across the region. High temperatures through midweek will be in the 40s and 50s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 20s over inland areas and in the lower to mid 30s along the coast. Frost is expected to develop during the overnight and early morning hours with hard freeze conditions occurring daily, with wind chill temps reaching Cold Weather Advisory levels early Tuesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Predominantly cold weather conditions will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend with chances for precipitation forecasted to increase on Friday and Saturday as the influence of high pressure over the region diminishes ahead of an approaching cold front pressing in from out of the north. Below average temperatures will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend with periods of freezing and frost occurring during the overnight and early morning hours.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

A slow-moving and broken line of showers ahead of an arctic cold front will continue to move southeast through the NE FL terminals through the predawn hours. Showers may lead to a brief period of IFR ceilings and visibilities but these are not expected to be predominant conditions. MVFR stratus is favored with a potential trend to upper-end IFR ceilings toward daybreak (around 1k ft) as the lazy front makes its way through. Gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the front as skies trend toward SKC. Peak wind gusts are expected around 20-30 knots during the 18z-22z time frame with weaken trends following.

MARINE

A weakening line of showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms along the edge of a strong arctic cold front will move eastward through the waters toward the open Atlantic this morning. Patchy sea fog cannot be ruled out ahead of these showers through the early morning hours. Behind the cold front winds will turn northwesterly and become gusty resulting in Small Craft Advisory conditions expanding across all coastal waters this afternoon. Rising seas will push toward 6 to 10 feet tonight before both winds and seas begin to relax. After a short break Tuesday and Wednesday, a couple more cold fronts will push across the waters during the second half of the week. The first front will pass Wednesday night and the second Friday night with both fronts bringing periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions to the local waters.

Rip Currents: Winds turning offshore with the cold front will help lower rip current risk in the local surf today. Elevated breakers are still expected, especially south of St Augustine which may lead to a slightly higher-end Moderate risk along that stretch of beach. Lighter winds (still offshore) and falling surf heights will reduce risk more by Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Patchy High Dispersions Across Southeast Georgia Today

Cool and dry conditions will build in today following the frontal passage with lingering showers moving offshore and becoming dispersed by late this morning. Gusty northwesterly winds will diminish and become more mild during the evening and overnight hours. Dry weather is expected to continue through midweek with a potential for showers returning by the end of the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Frost and freeze conditions will develop during the overnight and early morning hours throughout the week.

CLIMATE

Threatened daily records due to the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

------------------------------------- RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES: -------------------------------------

January 31: - KGNV: 47/1909

------------------------------------- RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES: -------------------------------------

January 31: - KCRG: 33/2019

February 1: - KJAX: 24/1977 - KGNV: 25/1977 - KAMG: 22/1977 - KCRG: 29/1977

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 48 21 46 24 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 55 27 47 30 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 60 25 50 26 / 20 0 0 0 SGJ 65 31 49 32 / 20 0 0 0 GNV 62 27 52 26 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 65 27 53 25 / 20 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-023- 024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533- 633. Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132- 136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340- 422-425-433-522-533-633. High Risk for Rip Currents until 4 AM EST early this morning for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. High Risk for Rip Currents until 4 AM EST early this morning for GAZ154-166. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350- 364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.