textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Fog Potential Each Morning through Wednesday

- High Risk of Rip Currents Today

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer This Week

UPDATE

Tweaked down tonight's lows below guidance as high pressure ridge will still have an axis extending southwest across the area with clear skies, calm winds maximizing radiational cooling with low 50s inland SE GA, mid 50s inland NE FL west of US-17 and low 60s along the coast of SE GA and NE FL. Expanded areas of fog across most of SE GA with patchy fog to I-10.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- High Risk of Rip Currents continues at NE FL/SE GA beaches

- Locally dense fog possible late tonight/early Monday morning

High pressure ridging continues today, which is starting to orient more northeast to southwest across the region, and therefore more of a east-southeast to southeast wind direction is being observed today. PWATs are below 0.75 inches and therefore rain chances are near zero despite the continuing onshore flow, with just a few diurnal clouds through this evening, mainly towards the I-95 corridor. The main concern today continues to be a higher risk of rip currents, especially at northeast FL beaches. Highs in the 80s will be common again today, except near the immediate coast where upper 70s are expected.

Tonight, just enough low level moisture will be in place for some patchy to areas of fog expected across the interior, with most high res guidance suggesting interior GA having the highest potential, especially for locally dense fog. Otherwise, mostly clear besides a some higher clouds starting to fill in from the west overnight, with lows in the 50s inland and upper 50s to low 60s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Fog potential each morning - Dry weather to persist

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast throughout this period, with the ridge extending overhead. The ridge will result in subsidence and continued dry weather.

There will be enough low level moisture for nocturnal fog formation each night. Warming trend will continue this period.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- The dry weather will persist, with rising temperatures - Morning fog potential to continue each day.

High pressure ridging will prevail through Friday, as the ridge axis slowly moves toward the southeast. As the ridge becomes centered more to the southeast of the region, the flow over area will come more from the southwest. While the east coast sea breeze will still push inland each afternoon, it will progress less and less inland each afternoon due to the increasing flow from the southwest. With the southwest flow, and the dry airmass, temperatures will continue to rise, with highs inland in the 90s becoming common by Thursday.

On Saturday, the ridge will be off to the southeast, allowing a frontal boundary to move into the southeastern US. The flow increase from the southwest ahead of the front, help to push the warmer air closer and closer to the coast, as the sea breeze becomes nearly pinned at the coast. Highs Saturday in the 90s will be common, in the mid to upper 80s at the beaches.

This front will move across the area Sunday. At this point, this front is expected to move through dry. Temperatures will be a little cooler Sunday.

As the flow becomes more from the southwest this period, the focus for fog will shift inland. The potential will exist each night.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

The 00Z TAF period will feature VFR conditions through most of the overnight hours as high pressure remains stretched across the area with east to southeast winds diminishing to 3-5 knots away from the coast over the next few hours before becoming calm by 06Z inland and staying up near 5 knots at the coast. Guidance suggests patchy to areas of fog developing at JAX, VQQ, SSI, and GNV and have placed tempo groups for restrictions to MVFR/IFR levels from 08-12Z before all fog lifts by 13Z. Light east to southeast winds will increase to 6-10 knots after 14Z Monday with increasing high level clouds.

MARINE

High pressure ridging will be the prevailing feature through mid to late this week, with flow gradually shifting more southeasterly over the next several days. Elevated seas today over the area waters, mostly from east swells, will gradually subside through this week as well.

Rip Currents and Surf:

East swells and onshore flow will persist high risk of rip currents at area beaches today with surf hieghts around 2-4 ft on average. The risk will likely drop to moderate for at least southeast GA beaches Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

- Minrh Values Below 30 Percent Common Inland Se Ga This Period - High Dispersions Inland Rest Of Today - Patchy High Dispersions Possible Ne Fl Tuesday

High pressure will prevail through the upcoming week, with dry weather continuing. Min RH values from the mid 20s to lower 30s percent range the next few days inland areas through Tuesday. In these areas, sustained winds will likely be below 15 mph. Closer to the coast, RH values will be higher but easterly winds may be breezy at times up to 15 mph due to the Atlantic sea breeze.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog late tonight and early Monday, and again early Tuesday morning.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites:

April 13: JAX 92/2001, CRG 91/2001, GNV 93/1922, AMG 88/2001

April 14: JAX 90/2007, CRG 90/2023, GNV 91/2019, AMG 91/2007

April 15: JAX 90/2006, CRG 91/2001, GNV 92/1936, AMG 91/1954

April 16: JAX 90/1972, CRG 91/2011, GNV 90/1967, AMG 92/1967

April 17: JAX 93/1967, CRG 90/2006, GNV 90/1945, AMG 91/1967

April 18: JAX 94/1967, CRG 89/2018, GNV 91/1967, AMG 92/1967

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 53 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 62 77 63 78 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 57 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 62 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 54 87 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 55 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 5 AM EDT Monday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.