textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered to Numerous Mainly Afternoon & Evening Storms through Wed. Isolated Strong Storms Possible for Locations West of 301 through 6 PM. Wind Gusts of 35-45 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Small Hail Possible. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible on Monday Afternoon and Evening

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches through Midweek

- Strengthening Onshore Winds Will Increase Marine Hazards from Late Wednesday through Next Weekend. High Risk for Rip Currents and Rough Surf Expected at Area Beaches. Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Isolated strong thunderstorms for inland areas through 6 PM.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at All Area Beaches.

The broad upper low that has slowly meandered its way across the Florida Peninsula over the last few days is now situated of the coast of southwest FL early this afternoon. This position of the upper low, in tandem with a broad surface trough beneath it, has lead to more favorable pattern for ascent and convective development this morning and early afternoon.

The scattered thunderstorms that developed along the trough over the local coastal waters this morning spread a dense shield of cirrus debris over the Jacksonville Metro and westward along the I-10 corridor. Those overcast skies have effectively delayed heating and destabilization for portions of coastal NE FL and SE GA along the I- 95 corridor; temperatures are unlikely to heat up enough to support thunderstorm as east-southeasterly anvil-relative winds continue to send reinforcing cirrus into the area. In sunnier areas, temperatures are nearing there peak but may push up another 2-3 degrees. Even with cloud cover, mid 80s to upper 80s are likely at the coast while well-inland areas will experience highs in the low 90s prior to convection.

Elsewhere and specifically along the edges of the cirrus, ongoing scattered to locally numerous thunderstorms are expected to generally shift westward toward the I-75 through 5 PM and then west of the local area by 7 PM. A few intense updrafts may develop along mesoscale and storm-scale boundary collision and lead to isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds up to 50 mph, excessive lightning and locally heavy rainfall which may lead to minor flooding.

A break in convection is likely through the evening until showers and isolated thunderstorms begin to redevelop along the persistent surface trough over the waters. Coastal showers may begin to reach the beaches an hour or two before sunrise while areas inland will remain dry with the potential for light fog development toward sunrise. Lows will generally fall to the 70-75 degree range across our area later tonight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period: (Monday through Tuesday night)

- Scattered to Numerous Mainly Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms Expected, with a few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall

Weak high pressure will be northeast of the region Monday. An inverted trough will move overhead of the local area Monday afternoon through Monday night. An upper low will also be over the area Monday. The combination of the inverted trough, and upper low will result in above average chances for precipitation Monday. Temperatures will be above average Monday into Monday night.

The surface trough will develop into an area of low pressure once over the Western Atlantic, and track north northeast away from the area Tuesday through Tuesday night, as high pressure builds south along the east coast of the US and into the local area. Moist onshore flow will keep precipitation chances above average Tuesday. Above average temperatures will continue Tuesday into Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights This Period: (Wednesday through Sunday):

- Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Continue on Wednesday.

- Strengthening Northeasterly Winds will Bring Increasing Marine Hazards to Coastal Locations on Thursday and Friday.

- Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Around Times of High Tide Late this Week and Next Weekend.

Surface high pressure will continue to extend down the eastern US states, and into local area Wednesday and Thursday, with an upper trough over the area. The surface low is expected to strengthen to the northeast through Thursday, with a surge of winds moving down the coastal waters due to pinched gradient between the high over land and low over water. Winds will become gusty Thursday, especially along the coast.

The high will weaken and move more toward the northwest Friday through Sunday, allowing the low to move closer to the mid Atlantic coast. Upper troughing will be in place Friday through Sunday.

Precipitation chances will be above average across the area on Wednesday, then the greatest chances will focus near the coast.

Temperatures this period will trend above average on Wednesday, then below for the remainder of this period.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

A shield of cirrus has shaded out and stabilized terminal along the I-95 corridor from the Jacksonville Metro northward to KSSI. Convective coverage south and northwest of the thick cirrus will be increasing through the afternoon hours with the sea breeze progressing inland toward KGNV. Outflow interactions with the sea breeze will lead to a fair chance of +TSRA at KGNV around 20-23z. Elsewhere and closer to the coast, terminals will see very light stratiform rain for the next few hours with light winds from an ENE to E direction.

After convection wanes this evening, winds will trend calm after midnight with potential for areas of low stratus and light fog for inland sites. Early morning showers may again develop along a coastal trough at coastal airfields Monday morning before shifting inland around 16z.

MARINE

Surface troughing and a disturbance aloft located just west of Tampa Bay will remain nearly stationary through tonight before lifting slowly north-northeastward across our local waters by Monday night and Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Thursday. Light, east-northeasterly winds will prevail through Tuesday with afternoon sea breeze shifting winds easterly across the nearshore waters. Strong high pressure will wedge down the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday afternoon and evening, creating a surge of northeasterly winds that will likely create Small Craft Advisory conditions across our local waters by Thursday and is likely to persist through Friday.

Rip Currents: Persistent east-northeasterly winds will keep a lower-end moderate risk in place through midweek at all area beaches. A strong surge of northeasterly winds and building breaker heights will arrive on Wednesday evening, and a high risk is a near certainty at all area beaches on Thursday and Friday, possibly continuing into next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Weakening high pressure will be northeast of the region through Monday morning. An inverted trough will build over the area Monday afternoon through Monday night. On Tuesday through Thursday the trough will develop into an area of low pressure and track to the northeast, while high pressure builds down across the eastern US. The high will build more toward the northwest late in the week into the weekend as low pressure moves toward the mid Atlantic coast.

Daily thunderstorm chances this week, with the greatest chances through Wednesday.

Fog Potential...Patchy inland fog.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 91 70 91 70 / 30 10 30 0 SSI 87 75 88 74 / 30 30 40 20 JAX 89 71 90 72 / 30 20 50 10 SGJ 87 75 88 74 / 30 10 40 20 GNV 89 71 91 71 / 60 30 70 10 OCF 90 71 91 72 / 30 20 70 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.