textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches Today

- Patchy Fog Possible Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings Inland

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Early Evening Thunderstorms Possible Inland on Monday and Tuesday

- Increasing Chances for Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Late this week and next weekend

- Afternoon Heat Index Values Rise to 100-105 on Fri & Sat

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry conditions continue - Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches

A high pressure ridge will prevail across the area through Tonight, with a dry airmass remaining in place. Lows will trend above seasonal averages.

SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Mainly Afternoon and Evening Showers and Thunderstorms, Mainly Across Inland Southeast GA.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches.

Monday, weak high pressure pattern will remain across the area from Bermuda with increasing moisture from the west as a shortwave trough moving eastward from the Ozarks to the TN Valley pushes mid level ridging southward along the FL peninsula and eastern Gulf waters. Mid and high level clouds will shift from the northwest to the southeast with partly cloudy skies over NE FL and mostly cloudy skies over SE GA, limiting highs to the upper 80s to around 90 over SE GA to the NW of US 84 with low to mid 90s south of US 84 into NE FL and mid to upper 80s along the coast. A widely isolated T'storm may develop west of US-1 in SE GA as the Atlantic seabreeze cruises well inland through the afternoon turning light SE winds easterly 10- 15 mph gusting to 20 mph at the coast and 8-12 mph gusting to 15 mph inland.

Monday night, clouds and light onshore flow will keep lows mild into the low 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast. Patchy fog will develop inland where winds turn calm after midnight despite the clouds.

Tuesday, ridging aloft will spread down the east coast with surface high pressure wedging down from the Mid Atlantic coastline in the morning before shifting east off the coast late in the day. Persistent mid to high level clouds over the area downstream of a shortwave trough over the southern appalachians caught between two mid/upper level ridges (one over the VA/NC coast and the other over the ArklaTex region) will limit highs to the mid/upper 80s over SE GA and the upper 80s over NE FL with mid 80s along the coast behind the easterly seabreeze passage. Drier air filtering down the southeast coast will limit T'storm coverage to widely isolated over inland SE GA.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Gradually Increasing Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late in the Upcoming Week and Next Weekend.

- Summertime Humidity Returns, with Heat Index Values Climbing to the 100-105 Degree Range Later this Week and Next Weekend.

Surface high pressure will move more to the ENE on Wednesday. Below normal moisture levels will remain as the high extends a ridge axis over the area with only isolated chances for showers and T'storms Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave weakens over the region. The high will become reestablished near Bermuda by Thursday with a surface ridge axis across NE FL with light southerly winds turning southeasterly as the Atlantic seabreeze moves towards highway 301 before merging with the Gulf seabreeze creating scattered T'storm coverage.

Moisture levels will increase to above average levels Friday into Saturday as a slow moving cold front approaches from the northwest, yielding numerous T'storms developing closer to I-95 and US-17 corridors as the Atlantic seabreeze becomes pinned in the southwesterly flow aloft.

Hi temperatures will begin near to slightly above normal Wednesday with low 90s inland and mid/upper 80s along the coast, then warm above normal Thursday into the start of next weekend into the low/mid 90s inland and around 90 at the coast. Heat index values of 95-100 midweek will increase to 100-105 degrees as humidity levels increase late week into Saturday. Lows will begin near normal Wednesday morning and warm above normal late week into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions this period. Patchy fog will be possible inland toward dawn, which could produce restrictions at KVQQ.

MARINE

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across our local waters through Monday, keeping unseasonably dry weather in place. Breezy southeasterly winds will develop late this afternoon across the near shore waters as the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Winds will shift to east-northeasterly on Tuesday as another high pressure center along the Mid-Atlantic coast briefly wedges down the southeastern seaboard. This high pressure center will then weaken near Bermuda later this week, with gradually increasing moisture levels developing scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across our local waters that will continue into next weekend.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains moderate at all area beaches through the rest of the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Unseasonably Dry Weather Continues At Inland Locations Today LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FOR INLAND - Southeast Georgia Near The Altamaha River

High pressure ridging will extend across the area through Monday with dry conditions and daily Atlantic seabreeze passages moving onshore midday and inland during the afternoon hours. A widely isolated T'storm expected Monday over far inland Southeast Georgia with increasing clouds over the area. High pressure will reform to the northeast on Tuesday with dry air shifting back in from the Atlantic waters with a widely isolated T'storms inland as the Atlantic seabreeze cruises well inland. High pressure will reform towards Bermuda with southeast flow midweek and widely scattered inland T'storms, then southwest flow prevails Friday over the region ahead of a slow moving cold front will increase moisture levels with numerous T'storms this weekend as Atlantic seabreeze stays pinned near I-95 to US-17 corridors.

Dry airmass will create MInRH values 30-35 percent today and near 35 percent Monday. Dispersions will be in the fair range today over inland Southeast Georgia and inland Northeast Florida with good range dispersions east of highway 301 behind the Atlantic seabreeze passage, then dispersions remain in the fair to good range through next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog expected in the early morning hours Monday and Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 71 89 72 86 / 0 10 10 10 SSI 75 88 77 86 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 71 93 74 88 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 71 89 75 87 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 69 94 72 89 / 0 10 0 10 OCF 70 94 73 89 / 0 10 0 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.