textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Showers ending across Northeast FL early to mid evening

- Numerous to Widespread T'storms on Saturday. Highest Coverage across Northeast FL. Main hazards, wind gusts to 40 mph, frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall

- Hot and Humid Conditions into Next Week

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Numerous Strong to Severe Storms across Southeast Georgia and the I-10 corridor of North Florida with Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Heavy Downpours.

- Scattered to Numerous Strong storms spread into the rest of Northeast Florida south of the I-10 corridor this afternoon with gusty winds of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours.

- Heat Indices of 104-108F expected for Northeast Florida Today, mainly to the south of the I-10 corridor

Showers and storms will continue through the afternoon and into this evening as passing tropical low pressure remnants move across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida, crossing into near and offshore waters. Strong to severe storms are developing throughout today and are capable of producing torrential rainfall and destructive wind gusts, with flash flood warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings being issued through the day mainly for areas along and north of the I-10 corridor. Storms will diminish and move offshore in the evening and overnight hours with convection expected to return early Saturday. Record high rainfall amounts over some areas may be possible today. High temperatures today will rise into the mid to upper 80s and lower 90s over southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 90s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s throughout the area. Heat index values will rise to over 100 for portions southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Numerous to Widespread Showers and T'storms Saturday - Hot and Humid Conditions This Weekend

High pressure over the OH/TN valleys will push a cold front into the area on Saturday, with the front beginning to lift north as a warm front Saturday evening as the high pressure shifts northward, clearing the area on Sunday. Showers and storms will develop once again on Saturday, with highest chances of precipitation developing during the late morning hours (NE FL) and through the afternoon hours (SE GA). Heavy downpours can be expected as PWATs remain around the 2" range, which could bring about localized flooding for locations which have received a good amount of rainfall during the past few days. PoPs will begin to diminish by Saturday evening, with scattered chances of showers and storms by Sunday. Westerly winds through the weekend will have any showers and storms move from west to east, with the Gulf breeze being the dominant breeze and the Atlantic breeze not making much progress inland this weekend.

Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, as cloud cover and convective activity likely to limit temperatures from getting too warm. Come Sunday, less cloud cover will allow for temperatures to be a bit warmer with highs expected in the lower to mid 90s area-wide. Overnight Lows will be in the 70s both nights this weekend. Heat index values will remain elevated 100-105 as dewpoints remain in the mid 70s over NE FL and the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat index values increasing to near Heat Advisory levels next week - Decreasing chances for showers Afternoon and Evening T'storms through midweek

As drier air filters into the region, the coverage showers and storms on Monday will be much lower compared to the past couple of days. An approaching cold front on Tuesday will bring scattered showers and storms for locations north of Waycross, GA. By midweek, trends currently show the front stalling around the Altamaha river. Will keep scattered chances for showers and storms during the midweek time frame at this time.

Mostly clear skies through midweek, will allow for sunny and hot conditions to take hold across the local area. Warm temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 70s will bring the potential for near heat advisory conditions to develop for locations across NE FL and coastal locations.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Light showers will continue at the duval county terminals through 02- 03Z with showers a bit heavier at GNV to SGJ over the next couple of hours, with VCTS at GNV. Rain coverage should diminish to VCSH thereafter towards 06Z with MVFR ceilings developing across the terminals with few clouds around 0.5 kft through 12Z.

Saturday, A cold front will sink into the area with showers and isolated T'storms getting started early at GNV just after 12Z and spreading to the coast through the late morning hours. Have PROB30 Groups for primarily 17-23Z for the terminals where heavier T'storms and downpours will bring at least MVFR ceilings and visibility restrictions to all TAF sites along with gusty winds up to 25 knots.

Light southwest winds around 5 knots overnight will increase from the west 6-10 knots on Saturday. After T'storms develop Saturday afternoon, the period will end with prevailing MVFR ceilings around 1.5 kft as the frontal boundary extends across the area.

MARINE

The low pressure system will accelerate to the northeast this afternoon with showers and storms building across near and offshore waters , with strong to severe storms possible mainly during the afternoon and evening. A trailing cold front from the low will move south into the area waters this weekend bringing additional rounds of thunderstorms. Weak high pressure ridge will slowly build in over the area waters early next week which may decrease coverage of storms.

Rip Currents:

Generally a low risk of rips expected into the weekend as surf remains in the 1-2 ft range with offshore flow continuing.

FIRE WEATHER

The front will move into the area on Saturday as widespread showers and T'storms will once again be possible. As the front lifts north as a warm front on Sunday, drier air will filter into the region as ridging builds across the FL peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated T'storms expected on Sunday and through midweek.

Good level dispersions expected during each afternoon through the weekend as more clouds limit mixing heights, with higher dispersions expected by Monday.

High humidity levels continue this weekend. Temperatures will rise next week with drier conditions and limited chances for T'storms with potential heat advisory conditions Monday and Tuesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Areas that receive heavier rainfall may also experience patchy late-night and early-morning fog. T'storms will produce locally gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.

EQUIPMENT

The WSR-88D Radar located near the Moody AFB near Valdosta remains offline due to technical problems. Technicians are awaiting critical parts to restore functionality. During the outage please utilize other area radars...KJAX, KTLH, or KJGX.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 73 88 72 90 / 10 70 30 30 SSI 77 89 75 90 / 20 80 30 30 JAX 76 90 73 92 / 30 80 40 40 SGJ 77 90 74 91 / 30 70 30 50 GNV 76 90 72 92 / 30 90 50 40 OCF 77 90 74 91 / 40 70 40 50

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None.