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KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Weather Conditions Continue into the Weekend. Areas of Low RH (Under 35%) Inland. Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues Nearly Area-Wide

- Dense Smoke Advisory through 12 PM Friday portions of inland SE GA. Smoke Will Cause Unhealthy Air Quality Monitor Using airnow.gov

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Today

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Through The Weekend

NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/

- Dense Smoke Expected Near Large Wildfires

- Monitor AirNow.gov for current air quality index levels

- Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and evening over northeast FL

A weak shortwave trough will push through the area today which is expected to shift offshore tonight. Flow aloft becomes more northwesterly by late evening and overnight. Low level ridge axis is located across the GA/FL border this morning and will continue to shift gradually further east and southeast. The fairly sfc light flow will allow both east and west coast sea breezes to push inland. PWATs are still low from about 0.8 inches in southeast GA to 1.1 inches over northeast FL. Latest guidance shows a possibility of a few showers mainly across northeast FL for this afternoon and based on consensus will include some 15-20 percent shower chances. There is lower confidence on a thunderstorm with chances of about 10-15 percent for inland areas late afternoon and early evening. Any t- storm that forms should be brief as there still is substantial dry air aloft. Max temps will be a few degrees above normal. Still quite dry near the sfc with min RH this afternoon in the upper 20s for inland southeast GA and mid 30s for inland northeast FL. This low RH and the ongoing drought unfortunately support some of the larger active wildfires across Clinch/Echols, Brantley, and Putnam counties.

For tonight, an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the early evening which should dissipate before 11 PM. Mostly clear to partly cloudy rest of the night. There is potential for patchy fog and low stratus near the I-75 corridor across northeast FL as winds become near calm. Smoke from wildfires in Clinch, Brantley, and Putnam counties may reduce visibilities overnight.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances this period, especially for southeast GA

High pressure weakens and shifts east of the region Saturday as a cold front approaches from the northwest, moving through the region Saturday Night and Sunday before stalling just south of the area by Sunday Night. Though the front will be rather weak and will be lacking any significant upper level support/dynamics, there does look to be just enough moisture combined with a few weak mid level frontal waves to bring at least some isolated to scattered showers across much of the region as well as a few isolated t'storms.

Saturday, the two main areas of potential are over inland southeast GA ahead of the main front as well as some isolated activity over parts of northeast FL as a sea breeze tries to move inland, as southwesterly flow ahead of the boundary is not expected to be very strong. Some activity is expected to linger overnight Saturday Night as well the front drops southward, with potential focused more across northeast FL during the day on Sunday.

With above being said, available moisture will be rather marginal and combined with the ongoing drought, certainly will not be a washout across the area, and convection overall is expected to be more of the isolated to widely scattered variety. Though given the extreme drought and ongoing wildfire situation, rainfall of any kind will be welcomed.

Regarding temperatures, albeit weak, southwesterly flow will help highs rise into the upper 80s to near 90 for most of the area throughout the weekend, and just a few degrees cooler by the coast. Lows will be mild, mainly in the low to mid 60s each night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Mostly dry early in the period, thunderstorm potential returns mid to late week

Confidence is overall lower than preferred for the long term period, as there is still some discrepancies amongst major model guidance. That said, surface and upper high pressure ridging does look to build far enough south behind the stalled front to our south to keep most if not all of the region dry on Monday and into Tuesday, with areas furthest south hanging on to slight chance PoPs at this time. Ridging breaks down a bit again Tuesday as another frontal boundary approaches, likely stalling near or just north of the region mid to late week. Guidance is quite split as to how strong both surface and ridging aloft holds over the area, and therefore how far south the weakening boundary makes it before the flow aloft becomes more zonal. Depending on how far south the front makes it, this would maintain chances for showers and t'storms each day, with southeast GA looking like where the higher end of this potential would be at this time as shown in the forecast PoPs. Temperatures trend near normal Monday before rising above climo later in the period.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

VFR prevails. Some very intermittent vsby impacts remain possible closer to any active wildfires, but not expecting significant enough impacts at this time. Scattered to broken cumulus expected to form by late morning and afternoon, with possible cigs near 5-6 kft at times. After 19z, a few showers possible are but given uncertain will refrain from including any VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, only other operational concern will be onshore flow increasing from east to west this aftn around or just above 10 knots as the east coast sea breeze moves inland.

MARINE

High pressure over the southeast states will weaken today into Saturday while moving southeast and well offshore into the Atlantic. Temporary increases in southeast to south winds expected across nearshore waters this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon and evening.

A cold frontal boundary will approach the southeast states by Saturday evening, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. This boundary is expected move into the area waters Sunday into Sunday night, and then into central Florida Monday. This front will result in widely scattered showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Sunday night. Behind the front, increased northeast winds and rougher seas early Monday. Weak high pressure will build in over the area waters Monday night into Tuesday. Another cold front will approach from the northwest by Wednesday.

Rip Currents:

A low-end moderate risk of rip currents will persist through Saturday partly due to diurnal increases in southeasterly winds and surf heights of 2 to 3 feet. May be a slight longshore current directed north based on latest observed and forecast wave spectra from 41112 and 41117.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Dispersions This Weekend - Near Critical MinRH Levels Inland Southeast GA Today

Dry high pressure will continue to prevail across the area today. Similar to the last several days, very good mixing will result in good dispersions across most of the area despite rather light low level winds inland. Also similar to the last several days, a sea breeze will move east to west during the late afternoon and evening hours, causing a wind shift inland. A few isolated showers and perhaps a brief thunderstorm will be possible across inland northeast FL this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze moves inland. A frontal boundary approaches the area Saturday and likely to move through and stall just south of the area by Sunday, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms but areas of high dispersions as well. Dry conditions are likely for many on Monday before another front approaches around Tuesday/Wednesday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Smoke from area fires may cause localized visibility restrictions, especially during the overnight and morning hours. Patchy fog is possible over inland NE FL Friday night, and therefore localized "superfog" potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 87 60 89 62 / 10 0 40 50 SSI 80 65 83 65 / 10 0 20 40 JAX 86 60 89 62 / 10 0 20 30 SGJ 82 63 86 64 / 10 0 20 20 GNV 87 58 89 61 / 10 0 20 10 OCF 86 60 88 62 / 10 0 20 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...Dense Smoke Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ136-152-162- 163. MARINE...None.