textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents through the Weekend

- Small Craft Advisory and Rough Surf through Tonight

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Continues. Dry & Warmer Friday through next Week. Elevated Wildfire Danger returns this weekend

- Fog Potential Returns this Weekend

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Hazards along the coast continue, High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf

Breezy northeast winds continue this afternoon as high pressure to the NNE along the Mid Atlantic coast into the Carolina Piedmont/Blue Ridge mountains of northern GA slowly sinks southward through this evening as weak coastal troughs moves onshore and passes into north central and central FL with light showers mainly affecting locations east of I-95 through mid afternoon. Winds will range about 15-20 mph gusting to 25 to as high as 30 mph at times along the coast and decrease to 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph inland NE FL and 8-12 mph gusting to 15-20 mph NW of US 84 across inland SE GA. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with Marine stratocumulus clouds moving onshore. Temperatures in the 70s will warm little along the coast with inland highs rising into the low 80s early this afternoon.

Coastal hazards including a high risk of rip currents and a high surf advisory will persist through early evening due to elevated onshore flow with breakers up to 6-8 ft along the Northeast FL coast. As the high moves closer in from the NNE, the local pressure gradient will relax more and reduce winds to 10-15 mph at the coast and 6-12 mph inland after rush hour.

Tonight, additional clouds will arrive from the west with occasional Marine stratocumulus clouds moving onto the coast and into NE FL. Winds will trend very light after midnight 5-8 mph along the coast and back more northerly with calm winds inland. Patchy fog will with low level moisture in place and dry air above the boundary layer with areas of dense fog across SE GA away from the coast southward to I-10 across inland NE FL. Lows will fall to the low 50s across inland SE GA to the low 60s along the NE FL coast, upper 50s SE GA coast, and mid to upper 50s across inland NE FL and north central FL.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Warmer temperatures, clearing skies, and dry weather this weekend - Inland Late Night/Early Morning Fog

High pressure will dominant across the area during the forecast period this weekend. With the high pressure overhead, clear skies, dry weather, and a light easterly onshore flow will be in place through the weekend. Daytime temperatures this weekend will be warmer than the past couple of days as highs across inland locations west of the I-95 corridor will be in the lower to mid 80s, the warmest temperatures over the far interior locations. With the easterly onshore breeze, cooler marine air will keep locations east of the I-95 corridor in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Overnight Lows will be in the mid 50s across inland locations with slightly warmer Lows in the lower 60s along coastal locations. Near calm winds during the overnight hours could lead to the development of patchy to areas of fog during the predawn hours each morning during the upcoming weekend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Temperatures trending to above seasonal norms during the upcoming week

High pressure remains over the area leading to warm and dry conditions through the upcoming work week. Ridging aloft builds in from the Gulf towards the FL peninsula through midweek as a trough digs over the western CONUS. This pattern will allow for a warming trend to continue from the weekend and through next week. Daytime highs will trend well above seasonal norms as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s, with some inland locations potentially reaching near or above record values in the lower 90s past midweek. Coastal locations will be relatively cooler as as the onshore flow will help to keep temperatures from rising as much.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

The 18Z TAF period will feature VFR ceilings through late tonight with a few coastal showers drifting towards the coast near SGJ so have VCSH there until 00Z. Breezy northeast winds persist around 15 knots gusting to 25 knots along the coast and 12-15 knots inland with gusts in the 20-25 knot range. Winds decrease after 00Z to about 3-5 knots inland and around 10 knots at the coast with scattered ceilings near 4.0 kft until 05-08Z. By late tonight, MVFR ceilings will return along the coast in the moist onshore flow with areas of fog forming across the JAX, VQQ, GNV and SSI terminals as winds grow calm after 05Z-06Z. Fog and low ceilings lift by 13Z to VFR levels at all sites. High pressure just north of the area Saturday will lead to less breezy winds 6-10 knots after 14Z for SSI and most Northeast FL TAF sites with winds 10-12 knots at SGJ further south.

MARINE

Strong high pressure will be centered to the north northeast, with an inverted trough to the south. Northeast winds will slowly decrease today and into the weekend. As winds begin to decrease seas will also lower through today but elevated seas are expected to linger over the offshore waters. The high pressure will move off to the northeast over the weekend, and more toward the east northeast next week.

Rip Currents and Surf:

Onshore winds will keep a high risk of rip currents today, and likely through the weekend as elevated surf and onshore flow prevail. High surf of 6-8 feet today, will lower to 4-6 feet Saturday and 3-5 feet by Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Inland Dispersion This Weekend - Critically Low Humidity Inland Southeast Ga This Weekend

Northeasterly winds will continue on Saturday, shifting to easterly by Sunday. High dispersions across inland NE FL on Saturday will expand to include much of the inland locations of NE FL and SE GA on Sunday. An extended dry period will settle across the area this weekend and into next week. With the drier air over the area, afternoon RH values values will approach critically low values on Saturday and Sunday across inland southeast GA. Next week, the drier airmass extends southward across north Florida. Monday through Thursday, minimum inland humidity of 25-35% is forecast with daily afternoon Gulf and Atlantic coast sea breezes presses inland. Additionally, a warming trend will bring above seasonal high temperatures during the upcoming week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Inland fog potential returns this weekend.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 13: KAMG: 88/2001

April 14: KGNV: 91/2019 KAMG: 91/2007

April 15: KGNV: 92/1936 KAMG: 91/1954

April 16: KJAX: 90/1972 KGNV: 90/1967 KAMG: 92/1967

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 51 85 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 57 76 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 56 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 77 62 78 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 55 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 56 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450- 452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472- 474.