textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk of Rip Currents for Southeast GA Beaches on Tuesday Moderate Risk Northeast FL Beaches on Tuesday

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Tuesday to Sunday. Main hazards are locally heavy rainfall and lightning.

UPDATE

Only isolated showers remain this evening as we continue to quickly lose daytime heating, suspect these showers will soon start to dissipate. As we shift into the overnight hours, low clouds and isolated showers will start to stream towards the coastline once again, though not expecting much to survive inland. Otherwise, a bit breezy near the coast with lows generally in the low to mid 70s, though a few upper 70s are possible near the immediate coast. Updated wording for coastal / hydro section.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Localized Flooding Rain Threat

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

The front remains stalled across central Florida Tuesday and Wednesday, slowly dissipating. A stronger onshore breeze develops Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping coastal high temperatures a little 'cooler' in the mid to upper 80s, while inland highs reach the low 90s. Overall, numerous showers and storms are forecast both afternoons/evenings inland, with morning showers and isolated storms moving onshore, spreading inland throughout the day. PWATs remain around 2.0" so the localized flood threat from heavy rainfall will continue during this period, we also may see some isolated strong storm development over inland locations.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

Precipitation chances remain pretty high (near 60%) Thursday and Friday, decreasing slightly this weekend. South/southwest winds will rise temperatures back up to above normal in the lower to mid 90s through the weekend, with highest storm chances over north central Florida. An isolated flooding rainfall threat returns for Thursday and Friday, with the Weather Prediction Center having the entire area under a 'Marginal' risk of excessive rainfall both days. Another front will approach the area from the north at the end of this week, at this time it appears to stall over central Georgia through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Northeasterly flow will continue for the forecast period, bringing periodic SHRA and MVFR stratus to parts of the region, primarily closer to the coast. Confidence is rather low with respect to extent of MVFR stratus impacts, low enough that have kept PROB30 groups overnight for now in which some or all of these sites may need amendments for TEMPO groups overall. Winds are expected to remain near or just above 10 knots at both SSI and SGJ overnight, though dropping off through the next few hours inland. SHRA are expected to stream onshore again beginning late morning on Tuesday, though TSRA probabilities are overall low. Only included inland terminals (VQQ and GNV) for TSRA mention at this time.

MARINE

A frontal boundary will shift south of area waters tonight into Tuesday as high pressure strengthens to the northeast, persisting onshore flow. High pressure then builds east of the local waters by Thursday then extends across the Florida peninsula Friday into the weekend with a return of westerly winds and the afternoon east coast sea breeze.

Onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk today. As onshore flow strengthens and surf builds with breakers up to 3-4 ft on Tuesday, a High Risk of Rip Currents will develop along the southeast GA beaches. High Risk may expand to all beaches by Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

A cold front is expected to shift southward into central Florida tonight, and stalling there through Thursday. Increased rain and storm chances are forecast each day, with onshore winds bringing morning coastal showers that will spread inland throughout the day and increase in coverage. There remains potential for locally heavy downpours through mid-week. Overall, dispersion will be fair to good Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will shift to southerly/southwesterly Thursday through the weekend.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm activity. Patchy inland morning fog possible each day.

HYDROLOGY

Updated Coastal water levels begin to increase this week with the approach of the New Moon on Sept 11th and breezy onshore easterly winds Tonight through Wednesday, with the peak winds across the local waters and coast Tuesday. At this time, guidance and observations show that water levels will be near and just above the action stage through Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River basin.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 72 90 73 90 / 10 60 20 60 SSI 78 87 78 87 / 30 60 50 50 JAX 74 89 75 89 / 20 60 50 60 SGJ 76 86 77 88 / 40 40 30 50 GNV 73 90 73 90 / 30 70 20 70 OCF 73 90 74 91 / 50 70 30 80

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...None. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...None.