textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Northeast FL Beaches Today. Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches. Moderate to High Risk Continues at All Area Beaches through the Weekend

- Scattered Thunderstorms Possible Thurs & Sun Afternoon through Mon

- Areas of Locally Dense Morning Fog Inland Wednesday through Sunday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Friday and Saturday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Main Highlights through Tuesday Night:

- High Risk for Rip Currents at the Northeast FL Beaches Today. Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches.

- Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight at Inland Locations

Early morning surface analysis depicts strong high pressure centered near Bermuda and extending its axis westward across the southeastern states. Aloft...ridging positioned over the FL peninsula was extending its axis northward along the southeastern seaboard, with a weak shortwave trough moving eastward from Texas towards the western Gulf along the western periphery of this ridge. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWAT values remain in the 1 - 1.25 inch range across our region, with higher values confined south of our area across central and south FL. Pockets of lower stratocumulus were noted in nighttime infrared imagery and surface observations, mainly across northeast FL, with a veil of thin cirrus drifting overhead for locations south and east of Waycross, GA. Fair skies prevail across the rest of inland southeast GA, where a larger bank of stratocumulus cloudiness was located just north of the Altamaha and Ocmulgee Rivers. Temperatures and dewpoints at 08Z ranged from the lower 50s to the lower 60s inland and the low to mid 60s at coastal locations.

Multi-layered cloudiness and enough low level easterly flow will likely prevent dense fog formation early this morning, although patchy radiation fog will be possible early this morning at inland locations. Otherwise, a stagnant weather pattern will remain in place during the next few days as Atlantic high pressure continues to extend its axis across the southeastern states. Deep-layered ridging will remain overhead today, keeping deeper moisture values in place across central and south FL. Our local pressure gradient will be a touch looser than it was on Monday, which may allow for the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes to collide late this afternoon or towards sunset near or just west of the Interstate 75 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. This mesoscale boundary collision should generate isolated to widely scattered showers late this afternoon and early this evening that may extend northward along the Alapaha River in interior southeast GA. While a brief thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, subsidence and a marginally moist lower troposphere will likely negate sustained updrafts in our area through this evening. The deep-layered ridge will allow highs to climb to the low and mid 80s for locations west of I-95, with breezy onshore winds this afternoon keeping coastal highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Showers over the Suwannee and Alapaha River valleys will dissipate early this evening, with fair skies and decoupling winds at inland locations setting the stage for at least patchy fog development towards sunrise on Wednesday, with areas of locally dense fog possible. Lows at inland locations will only fall to the upper 50s and lower 60s, with a light onshore breeze keeping coastal lows in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered Showers & Isolated T'storm Potential through midweek

Bermuda high remains in place through midweek, with its axis extending westward towards the FL peninsula. With the high pressure situated to the northeast-east of the region, breezy southeasterly onshore flow will continue with occasional gusts from 20 to 25 mph along the coast. As the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland during the afternoon hours, could see the some showers develop by the afternoon hours, but chances will be higher on Thursday as PWATs will trend a bit higher as moisture continues to move in from the Atlantic. Scattered showers and isolated storms along coastal locations during the morning hours, and shifting towards inland locations during the afternoon hours as the sea breeze pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor, particularly over NE FL.

Daytime highs will rise into the mid 80s across inland NE FL and SE GA, with coastal locations relatively cooler as the onshore flow will keep daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. By the evening hours, Lows will be dip to the lower to mid 60s. Weakening winds and lingering low-level moisture brought in from the Atlantic during the daytime hours could bring the potential for fog to develop over inland locations during the overnight hours close to dawn.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered showers & isolated T'storms into the weekend - Above Normal Temps Persist for the Long Term

The persistent onshore flow will continue to bring in moisture from the Atlantic, bringing PWATs around ~1.45. The inland push of the sea breeze will once again bring scattered showers and isolated storms to push in from the coast and towards inland locations towards the I-75 corridor. Over the weekend, a cold front pushes towards the eastern CONUS with models still depicting different timing of when the front will enter the local area and how far the front will push across the area during the forecast period. But guidance does suggest chances of showers increasing along the frontal boundary as it pushes into the area during the back half of the weekend and into Monday.

Temperatures will continue to remain on the warm side as daytime highs rise into the upper 80s over far inland locations, upper 70s along the coast with the continued cool marine air moving onshore. Behind the front, temperatures are expected to see a bit of cool down.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Temporary MVFR conditions will linger through 13-14Z this morning, followed by VFR through the day. Southeasterly winds will increase early this afternoon, and calm after sunset. Fog potential returns at VQQ early Wednesday morning.

MARINE

High pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across the southeastern states, maintaining persistent onshore winds and elevated seas, especially for the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisory level seas expected to redevelop over the offshore waters adjacent to northeast Florida on Thursday afternoon and evening, where seas will slowly build through the upcoming weekend. Elevated seas will expand to the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida on Thursday night and Friday, and Small Craft Advisories may develop over these near shore waters by late in the weekend. Meanwhile, an inverted trough will approaching our waters from the east late on Wednesday night, generate scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout our local waters on Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible late this week and through the weekend in the breezy onshore flow pattern. A cold front will then enter the southeastern states late this weekend, likely crossing our local waters on Monday, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.

Rip Currents:

Breakers will only gradually diminish at area beaches today, with values of 3-5 feet at the northeast FL beaches today and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches. A high risk of rip currents will remain in place at the northeast FL beaches today, where breakers will combine with a persistent easterly ocean swell to create dangerous surf conditions. A high end moderate risk is expected at the southeast GA beaches today. Breaker heights will briefly diminish to the 2-4 foot range at the northeast FL beaches on Wednesday, likely yielding a higher end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches, with a moderate risk continuing at the southeast GA beaches. Breezy southeasterly winds late this week will increase breakers back to the 3-5 foot range from Friday through the upcoming weekend at the northeast FL beaches and 2-3 feet at the southeast GA beaches, with a longer period easterly ocean swell likely creating a high risk at all area beaches.

FIRE WEATHER

- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions By Midweek

High pressure over the Atlantic will bring southeasterly-easterly winds over the area through the rest of the week. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon to evening hours mainly over inland areas as the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland. This flow regime will keep RH values well above critical daily as moisture moves in from the Atlantic. Today, dispersions will be in the fair to good range. By Wednesday, areas of High dispersions are expected as mixing heights rise, with higher values along the far interior locations of NE FL and SE GA.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog is expected each morning this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 83 60 84 59 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 76 62 76 63 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 82 60 83 61 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 79 62 79 64 / 10 10 10 10 GNV 84 60 86 60 / 20 10 10 0 OCF 84 61 86 61 / 20 10 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...None.