textproduct: Jacksonville

KEY MESSAGES

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Localized Dense Fog this Morning and Friday AM

- Isolated Thunderstorms this Afternoon between I-75 and US-301 in. Additional Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorm Potential Friday

- Minor Tidal Flooding within Portions of the St. Johns River Basin

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through the Weekend

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

A few batches of scattered, light showers will continue to drift northeastward this morning in advance of stalled front located well to the west. The associated, and mostly VFR, ceilings with the activity has limited low stratus and fog development at local TAF sites this morning. Warm, humid and modestly unstable conditions this afternoon will lead to another potential region of isolated thunderstorms generally along the Gulf sea breeze. Less activity is expected along the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes inland this afternoon. The primary corridor of isolated convection will be along the I-75, which may result in impacts at KGNV between 20z-23z. As the residual showers drift northeastward they may reach the Jax Metro terminals late in the evening (after 03z). Due to the linger showers and cloud cover during most of the night, fog formation will be limited. However, if skies clear there could be a window from around 09-13z where low stratus and fog may quickly form.

MARINE

An advancing cold front entering the southeastern states will slow its forward speed, with prevailing winds shifting to become more southerly today and then southwesterly on Friday and Friday night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may impact the waters on Friday afternoon and evening ahead of this approaching front, which will cross our local waters before sunrise on Saturday. Winds will shift to northwesterly with increasing speeds after midnight on Friday night, followed by winds shifting to northerly and then northeasterly in the wake of this frontal passage on Saturday afternoon and evening. High pressure will gradually build into the southeastern states on Sunday and Monday, creating breezy northeasterly winds and gradually building seas across our local waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Onshore winds will weaken on today and shift offshore by Friday. However, a lingering easterly ocean swell will still yield a moderate risk at all area beaches from today and through the upcoming weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

- Low Dispersions Across Northeast Fl Today

Weak southerly transport winds this afternoon will lead to low smoke dispersions across NE FL. Winds will shift southwesterly through Friday ahead of slow-moving and mostly dry cold front, which will push across Friday night, ushering in a drier and cooler airmass over the weekend and into early next week. Critically low humidity is not expected behind the front but a multi-day period of northerly light surface and transport winds will develop.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas to widespread fog will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours today and again tomorrow (Friday) across the area.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels within most of the St. Johns River basin continue to gradually decline with each successive high tide cycle, with gauges now reporting peak levels mostly in the action stage (below minor flooding) from around Racy Point northward.

Flood Advisory continues in portions of the river south of Racy Point where tides continue to reach 1.5 to 2 feet above normally dry ground during times of high tide (minor flooding). Recent heavy rainfall over central FL may allow elevated water levels to linger for locations along the St. Johns River and its tributaries near Lake George and Crescent Lake during the next several days as the floodwater drains northward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

AMG 84 67 81 55 / 10 10 30 0 SSI 79 67 81 59 / 10 0 40 10 JAX 85 67 85 61 / 10 0 30 10 SGJ 82 68 83 64 / 0 0 20 10 GNV 86 68 85 63 / 20 20 20 0 OCF 86 68 85 65 / 20 20 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for FLZ038-137. GA...None. MARINE...None.