textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress continues into the weekend.

- A pattern favorable for flash flooding develops early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 814 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Rest of this evening...

The region remains parked under mean ridging at the aloft and at the surface, with dry moisture profiles across the Gulf states similar to yesterday (precipitable water generally around 1.5 inches). Warm, southerly return flow has kept a hot and humid day with sunny skies and continuing into early evening. A frontal zone will sag south after midnight towards the Mid South to Delta region. This will cause some increased moist ascent and convergence, coupled with deeper moisture, for increased clouds and maybe a shower around daybreak in the Highway 82 and Delta regions. Persistence environment is on tap overnight (i.e. southerly return flow and elevated boundary layer moisture with increased clouds in the north). Lows will be seasonably warm, some 5F to 12F above (72F to 76F southeast of the Natchez Trace while 77F to 79F to the northwest). Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Tonight through next Wednesday...High levels of heat and humidity will remain the story heading into this upcoming weekend. With highs climbing into the 90s through Sunday and dew points well into the 70s, afternoon heat index readings will be between 100-110F each day. This dangerous heat stress has resulted in a "Heat Advisory" being hoisted for a portion of the CWA Friday and Saturday. This advisory could be extended into Sunday, with some changes in the layout of the affected counties/parishes possible.

Although the heat tapers off during the start of the new work week, moisture will be aplenty across the region. Moisture associated with a tropical wave meandering about the Yucatan, will overspread the Lower Mississippi River Valley next week, resulting in precipitable H2O values hovering around 2.5 inches. This, as a trough digs south and swings east across the nation's mid-section resulting in a front dropping south into the forecast area and stalling, will set the stage for multiple bouts of heavy rain moving across the region.

Currently a "Limited Threat" for flash flooding is being advertised across the entire forecast area next Monday through Wednesday as both high rainfall rates and training of convection could result in flash flooding. While this is still several days out, please continue to monitor the latest forecast as categorical adjustments to the threat area will likely be made, with a possible "Flash Flood Watch" needed for portions of, if not all of, the forecast area during that timeframe. /19/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail until 11Z. By 11Z MVFR/IFR conditions wl be psbl in the south until after 13Z. After 13Z VFR conditions wl resume until the aftn when isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA wl be psbl at the northern TAF sites. The SHRA/TSRA wl end by 00Z Sat and VFR conditions wl prevail areawide through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 77 95 77 92 / 0 10 10 50 Meridian 76 95 76 93 / 10 20 10 30 Vicksburg 77 94 77 92 / 0 10 10 40 Hattiesburg 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 20 Natchez 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 0 40 Greenville 76 94 78 91 / 10 10 20 60 Greenwood 76 95 77 91 / 20 20 20 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065- 072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ009-016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ075.