textproduct: Jackson

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Tonight through Sunday...High pressure aloft will steadily slide further east and deeper into the forecast area throughout the work week and into the upcoming holiday weekend. By mid-week, a trough to the north will send a cold front further south and into the CWA through the end of the work week. As the front's mid/upper level support shifts east and along the east coast, the front will essentially hang up and stall just south of north central gulf coast into the weekend.

Ahead of the front, hot and very humid conditions will continue to prevail across the forecast area. This afternoon, a good coverage of showers and storms can be expected, especially across eastern portions of the area on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned high aloft. Some of the more intense storms during this time will be capable of producing gusty winds, but frequent lightning and heavy downpours will be possible will all storms that develop. Then on Tuesday, with the addition of some better forcing as the front drops closer to the CWA, along with the already moist and unstable airmass, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms will exist across the majority of the area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with any severe storms. This activity will begin to weaken and wane in coverage after sunset each evening.

As the front pushes south through the forecast area Wednesday, and remains south of the CWA into the weekend, some slightly drier air will seep into the region. Chances for afternoon and evening showers and storms will also be shunted further south and ahead of the front. Despite this drier air advecting into the region, the lesser coverage of both convection and clouds each day through the weekend, will result in hotter afternoon temperatures as highs will eventually peak into the mid and upper 90s areawide. Once again, this could result in another round of potential "heat advisories" portions of, if not all of, the forecast area Saturday into Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, some subtle amounts of moisture will begin increasing across the region, resulting in a few more showers and storms developing across the area in the heat of the afternoon. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

VFR conditions to begin the TAF period at all sites, however isolated to scattered SHRA and TSRA through around 01Z Tuesday could bring variable visibility and ceilings. Increasing chances for low stratus with MVFR or IFR ceilings at eastern MS sites after 09Z, lifting and mixing back into VFR range by 15Z. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 74 91 73 91 / 20 70 30 20 Meridian 72 90 71 90 / 20 70 30 20 Vicksburg 75 93 73 92 / 20 60 20 20 Hattiesburg 74 93 73 94 / 30 80 30 40 Natchez 74 91 73 90 / 20 60 20 30 Greenville 74 90 73 91 / 30 40 10 20 Greenwood 74 90 72 92 / 20 60 10 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034- 035-040-041-047-053.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ008-009-016-025.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.